Podcasts about january cpi

Overnight in the US, Wall St rebounded from yesterday's sell off, spurred by software stocks as investors fears of AI disruption were eased. The tech heavy Nasdaq lead the way jumping 1%, while the S&P500 and Dow Jones both advanced 0.8%.What to watch today:Back home the ASX is expected to follow suit, with the SPI futures pointing to a 0.75% jump at the open of trade.In reporting season, gaming machine supplier Light and Wonder (ASX:LNW) has reported a 4% rise in revenue to US$3.3 billion, an adjusted net profit before amortisation increase of 18% to US$567 million, which puts them firmly in line with guidance.Other major companies are due to release their results this morning, including Fortescue Metals (ASX:FMG), Woolworths (ASX:WOW) and WiseTech Global (ASX:WTC).So far this reporting season, 206 companies have reported their results, with 38% beating expectations, 32% in line, and 30% missing expectations.Following on from their results, Bell Potter have upgraded end-to-end mining technology solutions provided Imdex (ASX:IMD) from a hold to a buy, and increased their 12-month price target from $3.60 to $4.60 per share. This comes after they announced an underlying EBITDA increase of 22% YoY, which beat forecast by 9%.Similarly, they have maintained their Buy rating on electrical equipment distributor IPD group (ASX:IPG), with a 12-month price target of $5.30, after thei announced an 8% underlying EBITDA increase YoY, which represented a 2% beat on forecast.Additionally today, keep an eye on the January CPI data which is due at 11:30am Sydney today – NAB analysts have predicted that both headline and trimmed-mean inflation will remain unchanged for the month, so any unexpected changes could impact the markets.Finally ending with commodities news,Crude oil has once again remained flat for the 3rd consecutive day, trading at slightly over US$66 per barrel.For precious metals, both gold and silver have pulled back slightly from yesterday's highs, with the former down 1.3% to US$5161 per ounce, and the latter down 1% to US$87.30 per ounce.

In this episode of J.P. Morgan's Making Sense, Phoebe White, a senior U.S. rates strategist and head of U.S. inflation strategy, sits down with senior economist Mike Hanson to unpack the January CPI report and the inflation outlook for 2026. They discuss why inflation may hover near 3% this year, the impact of tariffs, the gradual cooling in rents, and how differences between the CPI and PCE could inform the Fed's path. The conversation also touches on energy and food prices, data quality concerns at the BLS and much more.   This episode was recorded on February 18, 2026.  This communication has been prepared based upon information from sources believed to be reliable, but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and/or its affiliates and an analyst's involvement with any company (or security, other financial product or other asset class) that may be the subject of this communication. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. J.P. Morgan Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. Periodic updates may be provided on companies, issuers or industries based on specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. However, J.P. Morgan may be restricted from updating information contained in this communication for regulatory or other reasons. This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of J.P. Morgan. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of J.P. Morgan. © 2026, JPMorganChase & Co. All rights reserved.

In this week's podcast, CBA economists Belinda Allen, Trent Saunders and Harry Ottley discuss a busy week in labour market data that continues to suggest it remains too tight. They also preview the key January CPI due next week.  Disclaimer:  Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).  Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.   No Reliance  This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.  This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.   The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.  Liability Disclaimer  The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.   Usage of Artificial Intelligence  To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence. 

In this news and earnings episode, Simon and Dan break down Canada’s January CPI print and why food inflation still feels painfully high despite softer headline numbers. They dig into TELUS’ rough quarter, the surprise CEO change, and what it means for leverage, dividends, and long-term turnaround prospects. The guys also cover Shopify’s strong Q4 results and growing AI integration—discussing whether AI is a real threat or a long-term tailwind for the platform—before wrapping up with Robinhood’s explosive growth in options and crypto trading, and why the business increasingly looks more like a casino than a traditional brokerage. Along the way, they touch on grocery inflation, telecom price wars, valuation risks in high-multiple stocks, and what today’s speculative behavior could mean for markets going forward. Tickers discussed: T.TO, SHOP, HOOD, DOL.TO, L.TO Watch the full video on Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In recognition of NAPE week in Houston, we are delighted to welcome back David Bat, President of Kimberlite Research, to explore the latest OFS activity, trends, and technologies. David brings more than 30 years of experience spanning upstream, power, and oilfield research. Prior to joining Kimberlite in 2015, he served as VP and General Manager of Constellation New Energy, President of Welling & Company, and President of Stream-Flo USA. He began his career as a geologist with Chevron. Kimberlite is an international oilfield research firm that draws on insights from more than 20,000 hours of annual interviews with industry professionals to analyze market trends and benchmark performance for oilfield equipment and service providers. We were excited to hear David's perspective and latest insights. In our conversation, we cover Kimberlite's research model, the data it captures from operators, and how the firm uses AI as an enabling tool. David shares Kimberlite's 2026 operator sentiment and activity outlook and highlights regional hot spots for expansion (including Latin America, the Middle East, Norway, and West Africa) and discusses key technologies improving recovery and efficiency, as well as the runway for further gains. We compare international versus North American market structure, noting that the “Big Four” hold roughly 80% share across much of the international/offshore oilfield services market, while North America is highly fragmented with many specialty providers. We touch on the Permian as a global incubator for innovation, the Haynesville as a proving ground for high-temperature tools, David's longer-term outlook for the Lower 48 Tier 1 runway, operator-to-operator differences in service outcomes, and supplier performance dispersion and benchmarking, with performance and fit varying by basin. We explore upstream digital transformation strategies, why domain expertise matters for applying AI, hydraulic fracturing digital dynamics, and where digital value is expected to emerge, especially in production optimization. We also cover why consolidation is viewed as desperately needed in oilfield services yet hard to execute, Canada's market dynamics, and the strong demand for qualified personnel and quality equipment in international and offshore markets. David shares his exploration outlook, potential drivers of improved recoveries, newer tech players, and Kimberlite's Net Promoter Score (NPS) work, which he says correlates strongly with future financial performance and competitive strength; fewer than 10% of the OFS companies Kimberlite tracks exhibit truly distinguishing, scalable, "elite" customer-focused characteristics. A few select slides from David's presentation are linked here. It was a wide-ranging discussion and we're grateful to David for sharing his expertise with us all. Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by noting that the 10-year U.S. bond yield appears to have stabilized in the 4.0% to 4.10% range after plunging last week on a cooler-than-expected January CPI report. In crude markets, WTI price has been stuck over the last several weeks between $60-$65/bbl and inched a little lower to start this week (~$62/bbl) following reports that Iran and the U.S. have a “general agreement” on the basis for a potential nuclear deal, which could eventually lead to an ease in Iranian sanctions. An agreement in the next couple of weeks could lead to an additional pullback in oil prices if the oil market narrative shifts away from a modest “war premium” towards the IEA's 2026 global “oil glut” (~3.7mmbpd) narrative. On the natural gas front, he highlighted that the recent Arctic-driven winter premium for prompt gas price (~$3.00/MMBtu) and 12-month strip (~$3.50/MMBtu) have been completely u

US equity futures are pointing modestly lower, with Asian markets sharply weaker and European equities trading mixed. AI-related disruption fears remained the dominant market theme. Investors rotated further into defensive sectors as volatility picked up and the VIX moved above 20. Economic data showed weekly jobless claims broadly in line, continuing claims slightly higher, and existing home sales falling sharply month over month despite some improvement in affordability. Treasury auctions drew strong demand at the long end following earlier mixed results. Market attention now turns to January CPI, with expectations centered on a modest monthly increase in both headline and core inflation. Market has pared back Fed rate cut expectations to July move versus June.Companies Mentioned: Humana, Sumitomo Forestry, Tri Pointe Homes, OpenAI, DeepSeek

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we go through chatter from around the mortgage industry heard in the hallways here at MCT Exchange 2026 in San Diego. Plus, Robbie sits down with Ivy Risk Strategies' Lisa Holt for a discussion on how rethinking risk around fewer insurance purchases, stronger human connection, and data-drivenfeedback loops challenge traditional industry assumptions and help lenders and real estate leaders prepare for 2026 with smarter, more intuitive decisions at scale. And we close by looking at reaction to a subdued January CPI report.This week's podcasts are Sponsored by Cenlar. Cenlar supports lenders and investors with scalable, best-in-class loan servicing built for today's complex market. From compliance to customer experience, Cenlar helps portfolios perform better, borrowers stay supported, and servicers focus on growth. We're proud to partner with a true industry leader.

Brian Jacobsen and Ben Ayers break down the January CPI report. Ben says there's a “lot of great news” in the report, digging into his highlights. Brian agrees, stressing the “slow grind lower” over the last few years and speculating that businesses won't be able to push prices higher because of competitive forces and a squeezed consumer. They discuss concerns ahead, including whether the market has priced in a lot of the good news already.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Dr. Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, discusses the global economic outlook and the US monetary policy impact after today's January CPI report. He believes that inflation that could potentially exceed 4% by 2026. Dr. Posen speaks with Bloomberg's Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Market update for Friday February 13, 2026Check out the Public app for incredible investing tools and to support the show (LINK)Follow us on Instagram (@TheRundownDaily) for bonus content and instant reactions.In today's episode:January CPI cools to 2.4% Airbnb beats on revenue but sees profits dipAnthropic raises $30B at a $380B valuationRivian jumps on strong 2026 production guidanceDraftKings tumbles after weak 2026 revenue outlookFun Fact: Waymo is paying gig workers to close robotaxi doors

Today we had the exciting opportunity to host Bill Anderson, Senior Managing Director at Evercore and Global Head of the firm's Activism/Raid Defense team and Strategic M&A Advisory practice. Bill is a pioneer in activism defense and has advised more than 500 companies facing activists or strategic raids, including many of the largest proxy fights and defense situations of the past two decades. Prior to joining Evercore in 2016, Bill spent more than 15 years at Goldman Sachs as an M&A partner and leader of its defense team. Earlier in his career, he was an M&A attorney at Simpson Thatcher & Bartlett, clerked on the Second Circuit of the U.S. Court of Appeals, worked as a CPA at Coopers & Lybrand, and served as a Captain in the U.S. Army Reserves. It was our pleasure to hear Bill's perspectives on the latest M&A activity, activism and hostile preparedness, board composition and alignment, and the evolving dynamics between companies, shareholders, and capital markets. In our conversation, we explore Bill's career path from classic M&A work into defense and special committees as markets changed, and how activism became a major driver of M&A. Bill shares his top takeaways from 2025 activity, noting the wide range of deal types and attributing the acceleration in deal flow to greater antitrust optimism, liquid financing, and strong buyer stock performance. We discuss why activism has become a core risk-management issue for public companies, how activists can build positions via derivatives and broker-dealer exposure with limited disclosure (and why 13F filings can be an important early-warning signal), and how shareholder bases have evolved with index funds now a dominant ownership block alongside the continued influence of ISS and Glass Lewis. We cover the difficulty of mobilizing retail votes and related regulatory/state-law considerations, the deal approval environment under Trump versus Biden (including CFIUS as a wildcard), why companies are more careful describing synergies, the impact of universal proxy, and the importance of diversity, tenure, and sector expertise in board refreshment. We touch on the drivers of positive acquirer stock reactions, how companies communicate value at deal announcement, activist dynamics in M&A and when activism becomes contentious, the importance of board alignment and cohesion, increased spin-off activity, and much more. We ended by asking Bill for his thoughts on how companies can attract long-only capital. Throughout the discussion, we reference several elements of Evercore's “2025 Year in Review Report.” It was a fascinating discussion and we appreciate Bill for sharing his time and insights. Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting that the 10-year U.S. bond yield plunged this week following an unexpectedly soft December Retail Sales report. Bond volatility could remain elevated with January CPI set for release on Friday. On the crude oil market front, WTI price appears to have temporarily settled into a $60-$65/bbl trading range, given there have been no major new geopolitical surprises over the past week. In natural gas, prompt natural gas price has completely roundtripped since the Arctic blast started and is now trading back at ~$3.15/MMBtu. U.S. gas storage is back near normal levels (around the 5-year average) and winter weather from here through the end of withdrawal season will determine how constructive the setup is for summer gas price. On the broader equity market front, the DJIA has been one of the real winners this past week (up ~2.5-3.0%), especially versus the S&P 500 (up ~0.5%). Cyclical sectors (Energy, Industrials, and Materials) continue to be the market leaders, while Tech/Telecom continue to lag. In energy equities, most large-caps (Oil Majors, Oil Services, and Refiners) have already reported Q4 results, and the next few weeks will be dominated by E&Ps reporting. E&P commentary will likely be do

APAC stocks were mostly lower following the continued tech selling stateside and flip-flopping regarding US-Iran talks, while commodities were pressured overnight with silver prices dropping by a double-digit percentage.Earnings saw Alphabet shares fall 2.0%, ARM Holdings slip 8.6%, and Qualcomm slump 10.3% after market.US President Trump said not much doubt that interest rates will be lowered and thinks that Warsh wants to cut rates anyway.US BLS rescheduled the January employment report for Feb. 11th, while it rescheduled December job openings and labour turnover report for February 5th, and rescheduled January CPI to February 13th.Looking ahead, highlights include German Factory Orders (Dec), EZ Retail Sales (Dec), US Challenger (Jan), Weekly/Continuing Jobless Claims, Revelio PLS, ECB Announcement, BoE Announcement & MPR, Banxico Announcement, CNB Announcement. Speakers include BoE's Bailey, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Bostic, BoC's Macklem & RBA's Bullock. Supply from Spain & France.Earnings from Amazon, Strategy, Roblox, Reddit, Bloom Energy, ConocoPhillips, Bristol Myers Squibb, Barrick Mining, Cigna, Linde, Shell, Unilever & UniCredit.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the real economic markers in the world's largest economy painted a very lackluster picture today.US mortgage applications retreated again last week, for a second consecutive week. But these are still running well above year-ago levels. The refinance activity retreated but the big fall was for new purchase finance.Private businesses in the US added just +22,000 jobs in January according to the comprehensive ADP survey, (sample size of 26 mln) following a downwardly revised +37,000 rise in December and below forecasts for a +48,000 rise. Among these lackluster totals hiring in the health care sectors was a standout, adding +74,000 jobs. It was retrenchment in many others, including manufacturing.Remember the January non-farm payrolls report won't be released at its usual time on Saturday (NZT) due to the shutdown delays. It will now come next Thursday, February 12 (NZT).Meanwhile the ISM services sector PMI stayed in relatively good shape in January, although December was revised lower. New order growth slowed however, and price increases, pushed by tariff-taxes, rose.This is not translating into consumers buying cars at a higher rate. In fact, in January the annualised rate was only 14.9 mln vehicles, the slowest month since December 2022, and -4.1% lower than in January 2025.In China, and unlike the official January services PMI which was more negative, the private S&P Global version is more positive. The RatingDog China General Services PMI rose in January to a better expansion, from December's six-month low and better than market expectations. It's the strongest expansion in their services sector since October, driven by stronger growth in new orders, and a fresh increase in foreign sales.Meanwhile China said its fiscal revenue fell in 2025 for the first time since the pandemic. Sharp falls in non-tax takings outweighed a modest recovery in tax revenue.In Europe, the surging value of the euro helped push down their January CPI inflation level to 1.7%. Food, however, was up 2.7%.Australia released some living cost indexes yesterday, following the overall 3.8% December CPI. They say living costs for 'employees' rose just +2.2% in the year to January, but for 'aged pensioners' it was up +4.2%.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.27%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +71 bps.The price of gold will start today down -US$120 from yesterday at US$4860/oz. Silver is down -US$1 to US$85.50/oz. Some non-precious metals are lower too.American oil prices are up a bit less than +US$1 at just under US$63.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down -60 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just over 59.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 85.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -40 bps at just on 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 63.6, and down -50 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$72,550 and down another -3.3% from this time yesterday, and falling. The last time it was this low was in November 2024. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.6%.Please note that it is a public holiday in New Zealand on Friday, Waitangi Day. This podcast will not be published on Friday, but will return on Monday.

The ASX200 slipped about 0.5 % to under 8 600 points, with every sector in the red. Tech off 1.3 %, mining down 0.5 % and energy down 1 % after oil fell. The RBA left rates unchanged, shifting market focus to a 2026 hike. Look out for Thursday’s jobs numbers, January CPI and US Fed cut, plus quarterly ASX index rebalance. The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Last week the January CPI Indicator was unchanged at 2.5%/yr against expectations of a lift. Stephen Wu and Belinda Allen discuss the details and the implications for the RBA. This week we are spoilt for choice data wise, December quarter GDP and consumer spending for January will be the focus.   Disclaimer:    Important Information   This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).  Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.   No Reliance  This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.  This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.   The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.  Liability Disclaimer  The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.    

Rates strategists Francis Diamond and Phoebe White discuss their latest views on global inflation markets following broad-based breakeven narrowing over the past month. Despite upside surprises in January CPI reports, front-end breakevens have underperformed while the forward inflation curve has steepened across US, Euro area, and UK markets.   Speakers: Phoebe White   Head of US Inflation Strategy            Francis Diamond   Head of European Rates Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 27 February 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Sliding US consumer confidence hammers US Treasury bond yields down to their lowest levels since December. Australia's January CPI today could give clues on more RBA rate cuts. Australian consumer confidence jumps after the RBA's cut this month. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ's Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at the prospects of OPEC going through with stated plans to reverse production cuts made back during Covid in 2020 and 2021.   Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

President Trump recently ordered the U.S. Mint to stop producing pennies. This may not seem like a big deal in the big scheme of things, but as Mike Maharrey explains in this episode of the Money Metals' Midweek Memo podcast, the demise of the 1-cent coin is indicative of a much bigger problem. The government is destroying all of your money. And not just the penny. Starting with the January CPI report and the sudden revelation that price inflation isn't dead, Mike explains exactly what the government and the central bank are doing to your money.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news inflation is still not beat and the new tariff wars are messing with when that might happen.First up today, there was another dairy auction, and this one came in weaker than the derivatives markets had anticipated. Prices slipped overall by -0.6% in USD terms and by -1.5% in NZD terms. It was a much lower SMP price that was the surprise undershoot, down -2.5% from the prior event and last week's Pulse event. Cheddar cheese also took a -3.4% tumble, whereas the WMP price was only -0.2% lower than the last event, but it didn't fall as much as the derivatives market anticipated. Going the other way, there was a -2.2% rise in the butter price, taking it to almost matching its record high in June 2024. It is at its record high in NZD. Overall, of note today, "North Asia" (ie China) returned with renewed demand to be the top buyer, after largely sitting on the sidelines recently.In the US, the New York region factory survey turned from a negative to a positive expansion in February, a continuation of an improving trend that started in early 2024 but one that has been volatile.But their national survey of house builders turned more cautious in February, hurt by tariff-talk and the expected resulting inflation.In Canada they reported January CPI inflation, and that came in at 1.9% and pretty much as expected. But the "trimmed mean" core rate came in at 2.7%, the one the Bank of Canada follows, above the December level of 2.6% and well above the expected 2.5% level. This is going the wrong way for them and they may now skip the expected March rate cut.We should probably note that German business sentiment rose in February, ahead of this weekend's federal elections, on the hope that a new government won't get stuck in coalition paralysis. More broadly, EU business sentiment is rising too.The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts its policy rate by -25 bps to 4.1%, much as expected by financial markets, citing progress on getting inflation down towards its target range. It was their first cut since 2020. But it was a hawkish cut, and post-election there may not be any more until the clear inflation pressures ease, especially those expected from the looming tariff war. Despite that, financial markets are still pricing in at least two more rate cuts in 2025.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.54%, up +5 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just under US$2931/oz and up +US$33 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +50 USc at just over US$71.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now at US$75.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57 USc and down -40 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 89.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 54.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 66.9, and down -30 bps from this time yesterday and has been among the largest devaluers over the past 24 hours.The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,789 and down another -0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.1%.Join us at 2pm this afternoon for full coverage of the RBNZ's Monetary Policy Statement. And before that, we will have the January REINZ results at 9am.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the messy international outlook continues but so far the changes are more in prospect than real.First however, this will be a big week of data and policy releases. Not only will Australia review its policy rate tomorrow (a -25 bps cut is anticipated taking their cash rate target to 4.10%), our own RBNZ has its first monetary policy review of 2025 and it is widely expected they will deliver a -50 bps cut to 3.75%. China also reviews rates this week on Thursday, but no change is expected from them.On Wednesday, there is another full dairy auction.Canada and Japan will release January CPI data. And there will be many January PMI releases this week.In data out over the weekend from China, banks lent a record +¥5.22 tln in new loans in January, far above the +¥990 bln in December and easily beating forecasts of +¥800 bln. It is a spectacular show of support by banks for the push by Beijing to juice up its economy via more debt.Foreign direct investment in China plunged -99% over the past three years, Chinese government data shows, as their economic slowdown and concerns about their 'everything is national security' approach drove investors away. China only recorded a net inflow in 2024 of +US$4.5 bln and that is their lowest in more than 30 years. In two of the four quarters of 2024 there was in fact a net outflow.Up from +1.8% in 2023, Singapore's economy grew +4.4% in 2024 on the back of stronger-than-expected rebounds in exports and tourism. This was an upward revision from the preliminary +4.0% rate reported by them earlier. By itself, Singapore's Q4 rose at a +5.0% rate.Malaysia downgraded its growth in its Q4-2024 update to +5.0% from a year ago. This was due to weak progress in Q4 from Q3.In the US, retail sales were +4.2% higher in January from a year ago, a slightly slower pace than in December (+4.4%). This official data backs up the Redbook survey we report weekly. But we should note that the good January data came despite a sharpish fall-off in car sales in the month. That fall-off contributed to seasonally adjusted retreat in January from December and one that was notably more than expected.Business inventory data out for December actually shows lower levels, and their inventory-to-sales ratio improved unexpectedly. This shift might be due to public-policy uncertainty around tariffs.With inventories lower than expected, it therefore won't be a surprise to know that US industrial production in January rose on a year-on-year basis, and by more than expected. But the January rise from December wasn't as strong. But at least it was a riseIt is Presidents Day in the US on Monday (tomorrow NZT), a Federal holiday, but only inconsistently observed by business and many states.Across the border, Canada said its manufacturing sales rose, and for a third consecutive month in December.Canada also released its Q4-2024 senior loan officer survey which revealed a sharpish tightening in credit conditions in the period.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.48%, unchanged from Saturday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just under US$2882/oz and down -US$6 from Saturday.Oil prices are down -50 USc at just over US$70.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is still just under US$75/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.4 USc and unchanged from Saturday. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 54.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 67.3, unchanged from Saturday but its highest since Christmas Eve.The bitcoin price starts today at US$97,094 and down -1.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

After unveiling tariffs on steel and aluminum, President Trump signed a memo to explore how the US can put reciprocal tariffs in place, telling the press that “whatever countries charge the United States of America, we will charge them—no more, no less.” The Big Money Show co-anchors Taylor Riggs and Brian Brenberg discuss the goal behind the President's trade tactics. Later, they break down the January CPI report showing inflation remaining stubborn and the price pinch of Valentine's Day. Photo Credit: AP Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After unveiling tariffs on steel and aluminum, President Trump signed a memo to explore how the US can put reciprocal tariffs in place, telling the press that “whatever countries charge the United States of America, we will charge them—no more, no less.” The Big Money Show co-anchors Taylor Riggs and Brian Brenberg discuss the goal behind the President's trade tactics. Later, they break down the January CPI report showing inflation remaining stubborn and the price pinch of Valentine's Day. Photo Credit: AP Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After unveiling tariffs on steel and aluminum, President Trump signed a memo to explore how the US can put reciprocal tariffs in place, telling the press that “whatever countries charge the United States of America, we will charge them—no more, no less.” The Big Money Show co-anchors Taylor Riggs and Brian Brenberg discuss the goal behind the President's trade tactics. Later, they break down the January CPI report showing inflation remaining stubborn and the price pinch of Valentine's Day. Photo Credit: AP Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We chat about recently released inflation numbers (January CPI and PPI) as well as an event we recently attended with a PIMCO economist.

Well, it's that time again with inflation concerns dominating the headlines, the market movement and of course your portfolio.  This morning, we received the January CPI report and it was significantly hotter than anticipated and the market reacted with weakness.  So what parts of our lives is it getting more expensive?  We'll break down the report

February 13, 2025 ~ The January Consumer Price Index has been released and revealed a concerning 3 percent annual inflation rate, which surpasses the Federal Reserve's target. Senior Vice President and Director of The McNair Center for the Advancement of Free Enterprise and Entrepreneurship Tim Nash joins Guy and Jamie to discuss the potential economic complications on these riding inflation trends.

Inflation Watch: Carl Quintanilla, Sara Eisen and Michael Santoli explored what to make of stocks falling and yields spiking after January CPI came in hotter-than-expected. The anchors also discussed Elon Musk's defense of the Department of Government Efficiency -- after President Trump signed an executive order giving DOGE more power tofind ways to cut federal spending. In a CNBC Exclusive, Leslie Picker sat down with Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan to discuss everything from interest rates to President Trump's message on debanking conservatives. Also in focus: Day 2 for Fed Chair Powell on Capitol Hill, SoftBank's surprise loss and CEO Masa Son's AI bets, earnings winners and losers.   Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

Today we were delighted to welcome the Honorable Lisa Raitt, Vice-Chair of Global Investment Banking at CIBC, for an insightful discussion focused on the implications of recent U.S.-Canada trade developments. Lisa joined CIBC Capital Markets in 2020 following an eleven-year tenure in the Government of Canada. Her distinguished career includes serving as Deputy Leader of the Official Opposition and the Conservative Party of Canada, as well as serving as Minister of Natural Resources, Minister of Labor, and Minister of Transport. We were thrilled to host Lisa and hear her valuable perspective on the evolving trade dynamics between the U.S. and Canada. In our conversation, we explore the Canadian view on President Trump's recent comments regarding tariffs and Canada's auto manufacturing industry, along with the broader implications for U.S.-Canada trade relations. We discuss Canada's political landscape, including Prime Minister Trudeau's decision to step down after losing party support, the Conservative Party's growing momentum under Pierre Poilievre, and Canada's economic challenges and growth concerns. We touch on the unifying effect trade tensions have had on Canadian political and business communities, the potential for retaliatory measures, the need for more power generation, transmission, and distribution to support Canada's economic growth, and intra-Canada trade complications that impact Canada's competitiveness. Lisa provides insight into the impact of the Canadian dollar and interest rates, how currency fluctuations affect key sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, and sports, the deep economic and familial ties between the U.S. and Canada, whether ongoing trade disputes could fundamentally alter the relationship between the two countries, and more. We are very thankful to Lisa for sharing her time and perspective. Mike Bradley started off the show by highlighting that President Trump's new tariffs and tariff threats are increasing volatility, but that for the most part, bond and equity markets have been moving sideways. He noted January CPI & PPI will be reported over the next two days which could create added market volatility for bonds and equities. If both inflation reports print cooler-than expected, it will likely lead to intensifying pressure from Trump for the FED to cut interest rates at the March FOMC Meeting. On the crude oil market front, WTI price has rallied this week to ~$73/bbl and crude oil time spreads are pointing to a physically tight oil market. Oil price continues to be impacted by on/off tariff threats and continued OPEC production curtailments but was aided this week on news that Russian oil exports are being impacted by tighter Russian oil sanctions. On the natural gas front, U.S. natural gas prompt price has rebounded to ~$3.50/MMBtu on colder weather and the 12-month natural gas strip is now trading above $4.00/MMBtu. BP indicated on their Q4 call that at current U.S natural gas prices, they were contemplating picking up gas rigs “now” which is a new development. He also noted that European natural gas price was trading at ~$17/MMBtu (~$100/bbl oil equivalent) because European gas storage is draining faster than expected due to colder winter weather and poor renewable performance/utilization. He ended by flagging Equinor's recent strategy shift (significant reduction in renewables capex thru 2030) and also noted that BP is calling for a “fundamental reset” of their strategy at their Capital Markets Day (Feb 26th). Robert Kester added his thoughts on AI's dominance in global discourse, highlighting this week's high-profile AI Summit in Paris and different global approaches to AI, including the U.S.'s free-market stance, Europe's push for regulation, and China's state-backed AI expansion. We hope you all enjoy the discussion with Lisa as much as we did. Our best to you all – and to our friends up north, let's work this out, eh!

S&P futures are indicating a slightly lower open, down (0.12%) ahead of the January CPI report. Asian markets advanced on Wednesday, with the Hang Seng leading the gains, up+2.64%, driven by enthusiasm over AI developments and Chinese property sector optimism. European markets opened slightly higher, with major indexes all edging up. Companies Mentioned: Alibaba, Apple, Brookfield Asset Management, McDonald's

US equities were mostly lower in Wednesday trading, though stocks ended just a bit off best levels, with the Dow Jones and S&P500 down 50bps and 27bps while the Nasdaq finished up 3bps. Today's hotter January CPI print and repricing for more hawkish Fed rate cutting path were the biggest pieces of today's downside, while broader Trump 2.0 uncertainty also remains a key overhang. January core CPI rose 0.4% m/m, hottest print since Apr 2023, and headline jumped 0.5% m/m. Powell noted today's CPI report shows Fed has more work to do on inflation.

Live from the Cboe Global Markets floor, Kevin Hincks provides live reaction to the January CPI report. Equity futures immediately dropped on hotter-than-expected data. Kevin points to the energy components within the print that have remained elevated in back-to-back months.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-...Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-...Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/19192...Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplu...Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-net...Follow us on X – / schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – / schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-networkAbout Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Singapore shares began the day trading in positive territory as markets abroad logged mixed results. In early trade, the Straits Times Index (STI) was up 0.5 per cent at 3,880.63 points after 52.5 million securities changed hands in the broader market. In terms of counters to watch, we have Singapore Exchange given how total securities market turnover value on the local bourse increased 1 per cent year on year to S$20.8 billion in January. Elsewhere, from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress, to how Alibaba Group Holding’s shares surged as much as 8.6 per cent after a news report said it is working with Apple to roll out artificial intelligence features in China – more international and corporate headlines remain in focus. On Market View, Money Matters’ finance presenter Chua Tian Tian unpacked the developments with Too Jun Cheong, Assistant Dealing Manager from Moomoo Singapore.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fed Chairman Powell testifies to Congress today and January CPI is tomorrow. Coca Cola and Lyft report today, and investors also will watch several Treasury auctions this week.Important DisclosuresInformation on this site is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered individualized recommendations or personalized investment advice. The type of securities and investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review a security transaction for his or her own particular situation. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic and geo-political conditions.Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.(0128-0225)

January CPI on Wednesday puts prices back in the spotlight as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testifies to Congress starting tomorrow. Tariffs and McDonald's results are in focus today.Important DisclosuresInformation on this site is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered individualized recommendations or personalized investment advice. The type of securities and investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review a security transaction for his or her own particular situation. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic and geo-political conditions.Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.(0128-0225)

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news it doesn't look like our trading partners are going to be that helpful getting us out of recession.This week we will be watching for the Selected Prices inflation indications on Friday. And financial markets will be doing their final jostling for the following week's set of monetary policy decisions, first from the RBA on the Tuesday of that week, and the RBNZ the next day. But this coming week the US will release its CPI and PPI reports, and the Fed will face a partisan Congress to explain the Monetary Policy Report they released over this past weekend. India will release updated inflation data, and the EU its Q4 GDP growth result. And this week a set of sentiment surveys will be released in Australia.Over this weekend there were some major releases from the US.First, the Fed released its semi-annual Monetary Policy Report. Although it got almost no wider media coverage, it does point to some very interesting stresses they are going to have to work their way through. And they are issues that could have global consequences. While they see banks having 'ample' liquidity at present (previously they saw 'abundant' levels, so a shift), in fact as a proportion of their economy it is historically low. If banks have low liquidity, that puts the Fed in a tough spot if it want to keep shrinking its balance sheet. The Fed's 'normalisation' is an economic tightening process that only works without consequences if the banking system has excess liquidity. When that shrinks, as it seems it is, then overall low liquidity could jerk benchmark interest rates higher. Something will give, and the Fed may have to stop its QT process. Announcing that is a big market signal and this MPR suggests it is close.Secondly, total US consumer credit surged by almost +US$41 bln in December, far exceeding the forecasted +US$$12 bln. In fact it was the largest increase in the history of this metric. Revolving credit, which includes credit cards and personal lines of credit, jumped by +US$23 bln. Meanwhile, non-revolving credit, which covers car loans and student debt, increased by +US$18 bln. The overall +2.4% year-on-year rise suggests consumers are only modestly taking on more debt however, similar to inflation's rise. Third, US January non-farm payrolls growth came in less that expected, up +144,000 when the average of market estimates was +170,000. In 2024 that would have been regarded as a "big miss'.The data collectors said that wildfires in LA and severe winter weather in other parts of the country, had “no discernible effect” on employment in the month.Their jobless rate ticked down to 4.0% and average weekly earnings rose +4.2% from a year ago, so overall a mixed picture.And fourth, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for February fell from January and quite sharply. It's the second straight month of retreat and is now its lowest reading since July 2024. Both the 'conditions' and 'expectations' measures fell. There was also a large slide in buying conditions for durables, in part due to a perception that it may be too late to avoid the negative impact of their tariff policy. In addition, inflation expectations for the year ahead soared to 4.3%, the highest since November 2023, from 3.3%. This is only the fifth time in 14 years we have seen such a large one-month rise in year-ahead inflation expectations. Many consumers appear worried that high inflation will return within the next year.Not only is this measure of sentiment down in February from January (-4.6%), it is down even more sharply from February a year ago (-12%).And it is not going to get better. Trump is signaling 'reciprocal tariffs' on many countries, also expected to raise costs for Americans. It will be a major international escalation. No indication here on how that will affect New Zealand that basically doesn't have any tariffs with anyone. (In his alternate reality, he may just invent that we have some, of course.)An uncertain and fearful American middle class may have a much bigger impact on the global economy than even their new public policy direction. Of course the two are related.North of the border, Canada turned in a very strong jobs report again, it's second consecutive big gain. +76,000 new jobs were added in January, far higher than the +25,000 expected. Their jobless rate fell to 6.6%. Of course, this too is much more uncertain when looking ahead, for the same US-based reasons.As the New Zealand dairy industry knows, Canada has an [illegal] trade protection scheme operating for its dairy industry, a system of "supply management". Their industry leaders "don't think it [is] being threatened" in the current stoush with the US.And while we are reporting about dairy, we should note that American milk consumption rose +3.2% in 2024 while artificial 'plant milk' consumption fell -5.9% in the year. (Source.) That happening at a time when US milk production is steady (+0.7%) will no doubt create some interesting market supply stresses. But these signals may turn that around in the next season. The cost of feed for the mostly barn-housed industry will be the main indicator of how enthusiastic the response will be.Japan is reporting that household spending jumped in December and by very much more than anticipated. It was up +2.7% in December from November when only a +0.5% rise was anticipated. That large monthly shift now means that the year-on-year rise is +2.3%. If Japanese consumers are opening their wallets, it is both a sign that sentiment is rising, and it will be some counterbalance to the US ructions and the Chinese slowdown. We should not forget that Japan is the world's fourth largest economy, larger than India. It is similarly important for New Zealand exports.India cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 6.25%, its first cut since April 2020. Their forecasts indicate rising growth and falling inflation. Although that will be what PM Modi wants to hear, they may be 'brave' forecasts. But they are juicing up the stimulus, with this rate cut part of a two-part action to compliment last week's income tax cuts.In China, their January CPI inflation is meandering close to zero, although it picked up to +0.5% from a year ago in this latest update, and that was because of the +0.7% rise in the month from December. So perhaps they have avoided deflation - in this official data at least. But beef prices were little changed month-on-month but down -13% from a year ago. Lamb priced were up marginally, to be -5.6% lower than a year ago. Their milk prices fell rather sharply in January, taking the annual dip to -1.7%. China's producer prices remained disinflationary, down -2.3% year-on-year.China said its official reserves rose marginally in January, now at US$3.2 tln. US$769 bln of that is US Treasury debt, and falling (Nov-24). (Those holdings may now be lower than those the UK holds in US Treasuries.)Global world food prices were little-changed in January and are still running lower than a year ago. There was a small dip in sheepmeat prices, a rise in beef prices, and big rise in dairy prices. In fact dairy prices are now at two year highs, but are still -10% lower than when they peaked in June 2022.The UST 10yr yield is at 4.50%, up +5 bps from Saturday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$2860/oz and little-changed from Saturday. But this is up +US$50/oz from a week ago. In between, gold hit its record high of US$2883/oz. Also note, China is now allowing its insurers to 'invest in gold'.Oil prices are little-changed at just on US$71/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is still at US$74.50/bbl. But these levels are -US$1.50 lower than week-ago levels.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.6 USc and up +10 bps from this time Saturday.  Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just under 54.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.9, and the same as on Saturday, down -30 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$96,463 and a minor -0.3% slip from this time Saturday. And it is -6.8% lower than this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.8%. And we should note that El Salvador has ended its experiment where bitcoin was legal tender. It isn't anymore.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

This past week began with the news that Mexico and Canada had secured a temporary reprieve from US tariffs. However, we see higher tariffs as highly likely. This week also brought us stronger-than-expected earnings data in Japan. Looking ahead, in the US our focus will be on any further tariff news, the January CPI and Fed-speak. In Europe, we'll be watching out for the latest activity readings, and ECB and BOE speakers, as well as a central bank meeting in the Philippines. Chapters: US (01:49), Europe (06:22), Asia (10:31).

Hosts: RA George (Founder, Blockchain DXB) Markose Chentittha (Oort Foundation + Society X) Title:Unfiltered Chat - Weekly Crypto, Blockchain & AI This episode is an AI-reviewed summary of a dynamic conversation between RA George from Blockchain DXB and Markose Chentittha from Oort Foundation and Society X, leveraging the power of Google's Notebook LM for insights and clarity. Key Topics Discussed: 15th January: CPI numbers to be released—market implications analyzed. 20th January: President Trump's swearing-in and its potential impact on policy. 29th January: The FOMC meeting to shape the year's monetary trajectory. Economic Analysis: US economy shows strong Q3 growth (3.1% GDP) and low unemployment. Inflation moderates to 2.4%, close to the Fed's target, with monetary policy nearing a neutral stance. Risks in private credit and stablecoins identified despite overall financial stability. Key Reference: Speech by Governor Christopher J. Waller on “Challenges Facing Central Bankers” (Link). Crypto and Blockchain Highlights: Chainlink: A Game Changer? Partnerships with Ripple and integration into DeFi applications. Security and transparency enhanced by Chainlink Price Feeds. Discussion on Chainlink's potential to make blockchain mainstream. Ripple's RLUSD Stablecoin: Speculation about Ripple's 2025 launch and its potential impact on stablecoin adoption. Tax Fraud Case: Richard Ahlgren III ordered to surrender keys to $124 million in Bitcoin as part of a tax fraud case. Ethical questions raised about tax evasion and its classification as a crime. Insights on Investments and AI: DAMAC's CEO Hussain Sajwani partners with Trump to build $20B data centers in eight U.S. states under EDGNEX. Mubadala's growing AI investments surpassing Saudi Arabia's PIF focus. Is AI overtaking blockchain and crypto in the investment landscape? 2025 Elections and Bitcoin Reserves: Speculations on which country will first announce Bitcoin reserves: Switzerland? Japan (unlikely due to volatility concerns)? Canada or the UK? Bitcoin Covenants: Taproot Wizards initiative explores Bitcoin's versatility with proposed OP_CAT protocols. Applications like Bitcoin-backed loans, cross-chain bridges, and Layer 2 enhancements discussed. Market Dynamics: Stablecoin trading volume drops due to falling prices. Raydium DEX briefly surpasses Uniswap but loses dominance within a day. Updates from Hosts: Markose Chentittha (Oort Foundation): Updates on ongoing projects and collaborations. RA George (Blockchain DXB): Upcoming interviews, including: Closing Thoughts:To support this channel: https://www.patreon.com/BlockchainDXB ⚡ Buy me Coffee ☕ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.buymeacoffee.com/info36/w/6987⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⚡ Advanced Media ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.amt.tv/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⚡⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Spartan Race Trifecta⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ in Dubai https://race.spartan.com/en/race/detail/8646/overview For 20% Discount use code: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George20⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⚡ The Race Space Podcast

Our Global Macro Strategist explains the complex nature of recent U.S. economic reports, and which figures should matter most to investors.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Macro Strategy. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll talk about what investors should take away from recent economic data. It's Thursday, February 29, at 4pm in New York.There's been a string of confusing US inflation reports recently, and macro markets have reacted with vigor to the significant upside surprises in the data. Before these inflation reports, our economists thought that January Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation, or PCE inflation, would come at 0.23 per cent for the month. On the back of the Consumer Price Index inflation report for January, our economists increased their PCE inflation forecast to 0.29 per cent month-over-month. Then after the Producers' Price Index, or PPI inflation report, they revised that forecast even higher – to 0.43 per cent month-over-month. Today, core PCE inflation actually printed at 0.42 per cent - very close to our economists' revised forecast.That means the economy produced nearly twice as much inflation in January as our economists thought it would originally. The January CPI and PPI inflation reports seem to suggest that while inflation is off the record peaks it had reached, the path down is not going to be smooth and easy. Now, the question is: How much weight should investors put on this data? The answer depends on how much weight Federal Open Market Committee participants place on it. After all, the way in which FOMC participants reacted to activity data in the third quarter of 2023 – which was to hold rates steady despite encouraging inflation data – sent US Treasury yields sharply higher.Sometimes data is irrational. So we would take the recent inflation data with a grain of salt. Let me give you an example of the divergence in recent data that's just that – an outlying number that investors should treat with some skepticism. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, calculates two measures of rent for the CPI index: Owner's equivalent rent, or OER, and rents for primary residences. Both measures use very similar underlying rent data. But the BLS weights different aspects of that rent data differently for OER than for rents.OER increased by 0.56 per cent month-over-month in January, while primary residence rents increased 0.36 per cent month-over-month. This is extremely rare. If the BLS were to release the inflation data every day of the year, this type of discrepancy would occur only twice in a lifetime – or every 43 years.The confusing nature of recent economic data suggests to us that investors should interpret the data as the Fed would. Our economists don't think that recent data changed the views of FOMC participants and they still expect a first rate cut at the June FOMC meeting. All in all, we suggest that investors move to a neutral stance on the US treasury market while the irrationality of the data passes by.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people to find the show.

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss their takeaways from the global January CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for inflation and  monetary policy.    This podcast was recorded on February 27, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only.  Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4637818-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Japan makes surprise crypto move. AI dating coaches are coming - Markets plunge - then rebound nicely - AI Buying AI stuff - Cure for Frostbite? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - AI dating coaches are coming - Markets plunge - then rebound nicely - AI Buying AI stuff - Cure for Frostbite? - AMAZING AMAZON Market Update - Japan - really pumping the risk assets - China government making $$ moves - China: Latest Problem: Lying Flat - Whoops - What is an extra ZERO anyway?  Follow Up---- - USA CPI came out HOT! - January PPI increased by 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), with the previous figure revised to -0.1% from -0.2%. Meanwhile, January Core PPI rose by 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), and the prior number was revised to -0.1% from 0.0%. - The significant message from the report aligns with the conclusion drawn from the unexpectedly high January CPI report: whether the market opts to overlook this data due to seasonal adjustments, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to dismiss it. - The Fed is likely to perceive it as a reason to maintain a patient approach in terms of potential rate cuts. Market Hysteria - The Russell 2000, sank 4% on Tuesday, but ultimately settled 1.1% higher on the week. The market-cap weighted S&P 500 declined 0.4% this week, but the equal-weighted S&P 500 jumped 0.7%. - The Russell was DOWN 4% on Tuesday after the hotter than expected CPI report. - In addition to the hot CPI reading, market participants also digested a below-consensus Retail Sales report for January, an unexpected drop in jobless claims to 212,000, and a hotter-than-expected PPI report for January. -The 2-yr note yield settled 15 basis points higher this week to 4.65% in response to this week's data and the 10-yr note yield rose 11 basis points this week to 4.30%. (Briefing.com) Japan Crypto News - Japan inched closer to allowing venture capital firms and other investment funds to hold digital assets directly, after Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's administration agreed to submit a revised bill to implement the change. - His cabinet approved the text of a bill on Feb. 16 that seeks to partially amend the country's industrial competitiveness enhancement act, according to a statement published on the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry's website. The bill states that “measures will be taken to add cryptoassets to the list of assets that can be acquired and held by investment limited partnerships,” referring to a vehicle used by venture capital firms to secure capital for investments. China - China's southern province of Hainan moved to cut down-payment ratio for first-time homebuyers, the latest region in the country to ease mortgage policies to boost slumping home sales. - Minimum down payment for first homes was cut to 20% from 25%, according to a Monday report by Hainan Daily. The ratio for second homes remains unchanged at 30%, the outlet reported, citing a government notice without saying when the measure would go into effect. More China - China's market opened after the long Lunar New Year break with a thud. - China looks to be still buying directly into markets to prop up - Reports about pre-pandemic level spending on goods and travel, especially during the Lunar New Year did not lift the mood much China's Newest Concern: Lie Flat - "lie flat", a Chinese term used to describe people who work just enough to afford to spend their time on what they enjoy. ---- Not like Japan Inc of the 1980's - Although there is no data on how many young Chinese are opting out of corporate jobs that they traditionally would have taken, the youth jobless rate rose to a record high of 21.

Investors are getting another crack at inflation data today after January CPI rattled the markets. Bank of America's Aditya Bhave explains. Plus, there's a new red hot AI play seeing shares soar this year. Zacks Investment Research's John Blank gives the name to watch. And, what's ahead for the regional banking sector? OceanFirst Financial CEO Christopher Maher weighs in.

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers talks on the hot January CPI report with Bloomberg's David WestinSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After covering stock (1:01), bond (4:08) and commodity (7:08) markets for the week ended Feb. 16, 2024, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Samuel Lau and Quantitative Analyst Eric Dhall dive into the week's macro news (8:50), including a January CPI report that pushed back Fed rate-cut expectations. For their Topic of the Week (22:42), Sam and Eric examine the concentration of the market cap-weighted S&P 500 large-cap stock index in terms of its 10 largest stocks. They also look at history for an idea of what above-average concentration has presaged for future performance of the market-cap weighted index versus the equal-weighted index. Looking ahead (37:58) to the week ending Feb. 23, Sam and Eric will have on their radar the Leading Economic Index of 10 leading indicators, the release of the minutes of the Jan. 31 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, jobless claims and S&P Global PMI reports.

Markets got an unpleasant jolt this morning when January CPI numbers came in hotter than expected. Many investors took it as a reason that the Fed would look to push anticipated rate cuts out further into the year. Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/nathanielwhittemorecrypto Subscribe to the newsletter: https://breakdown.beehiiv.com/ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownNLW

Valentine's Day Google searches; January CPI came in a little hotter than hoped, triggering market correction. How does this set up a buying opportunity for Bonds? The primary factor in CPI this time was in Homeowners' Equivalent Rent. A market correction is not a crash. Valentine's Day safe practices at the Ratliff household. Why wannabe retirees might not be as ready to retire as they think. The mistake of getting out of the market. The realities of Retirement and financial planning. Discussion on Market's one-day shock over CPI, and that pesky, sticky inflation creating a rate cut conundrum for the Fed. What a Recession would cure (why Recession is not a bad thing). SEG-1: CPI Triggers Correction SEG-2: Valentine's Day Safe Practices & Wannabe Retirees SEG-3: The Realities of Retirement & Financial Planning SEG-4: Sticky Inflation & the Fed's Rate Cut Conundrum Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Advisors, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: "Five Money Habits of Unhappy Couples," Saturday, February 24, 2024: https://streamyard.com/watch/xRDYWQQqdFaF -------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vl4bDbH-JBE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Divergences And Other Technical Warnings" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/divergences-and-other-technical-warnings/ "This Is Nuts & Why We Reduced Risk On Friday 01-11-20" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/this-is-nuts-why-we-reduced-risk-friday/ "Housing Is Unaffordable. Dems Want To Make It Worse." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/housing-is-unaffordable-dems-want-to-make-it-worse/ "Investors Sentiment Is So Bullish It Is Bearish" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, " Corrections Within Bullish Trends are Short-lived," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dhxv68xEcZM&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "It's CPI Day! - the impact that gas prices may have" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XG-pTiLGkks&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=195s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #SP5000 ##CPI #HotterInflation #StickyInflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Retirement #FinancialPlanning #Retirees #Markets #Money #Investing

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Fred Hutchison, President and CEO of LNG Allies, for a comprehensive discussion on an important and timely topic, LNG. Fred founded LNG Allies in 2014 and is a leading spokesman for the US LNG export industry with over four decades of experience in government and public relations. LNG Allies is an independent, non-profit association focused on advancing the interests of the US LNG industry and promoting the benefits of LNG exports. We were thrilled to visit with Fred. We covered a lot of territory in our conversation starting with background on the formation of LNG Allies, the significant shift in the US from being an importer to becoming the world's largest exporter of LNG in a relatively short period, gratitude from European countries towards the US for supplying LNG in the post Ukraine invasion energy crunch, the ongoing debate about natural gas as a lower impact fuel and its role in the energy transition, the impact of recent geopolitical events and energy prices on energy security and industrial activity, and potential motivations and implications behind the Biden Administration's pause on LNG approvals. We touch on the shift in resistance to long-term LNG contracts, opposition and lobbying against LNG exports, global trust in the US as a supplier and concerns about reliability with changing administrations, the potential for LNG growth in other countries, the impact of US policy decisions on energy supply, and concern with the lack of understanding among policymakers about energy issues. Fred shares his perspective on the diverse export market for LNG, emerging markets in future LNG demand, challenges faced by countries in accessing financing for LNG projects due to credit rating issues, and much more. We ended by asking Fred for his view on the state of journalism and public debate as a writer himself. It was a wide-ranging and in-depth conversation and we can't thank Fred enough for sharing his time and thoughts with us. In our discussion, you will hear we reference a few items. The IEEJ's January 2024 report is linked here and the Wall Street Journal op-ed regarding the IEA is linked here. For additional LNG reading, the LNG Allies' report on US LNG projects and contracts as of February 3rd is linked here and a recent letter to Congress on the LNG Moratorium is linked here. Mike Bradley kicked us off by sharing key economic, equity market, commodity and energy sector thoughts. On the economic front, January CPI printed hotter than expected, pushing the 10-year yield bond up and calling into question the pace of future FED rate cuts. On the broader equity market front, even though the hotter than expected CPI pushed the DJIA down over 500 points, he stressed that market volatility remains historically low and investor sentiment remains bullish. On the commodity market front, WTI price surged to ~$78/bbl. (+$5/bbl. on the week) which is the upper end of its 3-month trading range. He noted several recent crosscurrents effecting crude oil markets and highlighted that U.S. natural gas prompt price plunged to ~$1.65/MMBtu (lowest price level since Covid in 2020 and prior to that 1999) and noted that the 12-month strip traded down to ~$2.50/MMBtu, which is below “most” U.S. natural gas E&Ps break-even price. On the traditional energy sector front, he highlighted this week's $26 billion merger deal between Diamondback Energy and Endeavor Energy, w

Valentine's Day Google searches; January CPI came in a little hotter than hoped, triggering market correction. How does this set up a buying opportunity for Bonds? The primary factor in CPI this time was in Homeowners' Equivalent Rent. A market correction is not a crash. Valentine's Day safe practices at the Ratliff household. Why wannabe retirees might not be as ready to retire as they think. The mistake of getting out of the market. The realities of Retirement and financial planning. Discussion on Market's one-day shock over CPI, and that pesky, sticky inflation creating a rate cut conundrum for the Fed. What a Recession would cure (why Recession is not a bad thing). SEG-1: CPI Triggers Correction SEG-2: Valentine's Day Safe Practices & Wannabe Retirees SEG-3: The Realities of Retirement & Financial Planning SEG-4: Sticky Inflation & the Fed's Rate Cut Conundrum Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Advisors, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: "Five Money Habits of Unhappy Couples," Saturday, February 24, 2024: https://streamyard.com/watch/xRDYWQQqdFaF -------- Watch today's show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vl4bDbH-JBE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Divergences And Other Technical Warnings" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/divergences-and-other-technical-warnings/ "This Is Nuts & Why We Reduced Risk On Friday 01-11-20" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/this-is-nuts-why-we-reduced-risk-friday/ "Housing Is Unaffordable. Dems Want To Make It Worse." https://realinvestmentadvice.com/housing-is-unaffordable-dems-want-to-make-it-worse/ "Investors Sentiment Is So Bullish It Is Bearish" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, " Corrections Within Bullish Trends are Short-lived," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dhxv68xEcZM&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "It's CPI Day! - the impact that gas prices may have" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XG-pTiLGkks&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=195s -------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316958366519/WN_jCrzdX9uSJSrg5MBN5Oy8g ------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #SP5000 ##CPI #HotterInflation #StickyInflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates  #Retirement #FinancialPlanning #Retirees #Markets #Money #Investing

BlackRock Global Allocation Fund Portfolio Manager Russ Koesterich discusses his expectation that the Fed will cut rates in June even after a hotter-than-expected January CPI report and says now is the time to stay long equities. He speaks with Bloomberg Surveillance hosts Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

BlackRock Global Allocation Fund Portfolio Manager Russ Koesterich discusses his expectation that the Fed will cut rates in June even after a hotter-than-expected January CPI report and says now is the time to stay long equities. He speaks with Bloomberg Surveillance hosts Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Following this morning's release of the January CPI print, Senior Economist Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, Brian Rose, drops by to share his thoughts on the data release and the broader US economy.

Inflation is front and center today as investors await the first CPI report of 2024. The Conference Board's Dana Peterson tees up the print. Plus, Coca-Cola is out with earnings this morning. UBS' Peter Grom gives his expectations. And, markets are coming off more fresh record highs. Bone Fide Wealth's Douglas Boneparth and ProShares Advisors' Simeon Hyman discuss.

US equities under pressure in Tuesday trading, though stocks ended well off worst levels. Small-caps underperformed with Russell 2000 posting worst session since Jun-22. Hotter-than-expected January CPI drove risk off. Some focus on disappointing earnings, particularly in tech and industrial, though high bar seems to be an issue for former. Headline CPI increased 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, ahead of the 0.2%/2.9% consensus.

Mike Armstrong and Paul Lane react to the January CPI report that showed inflation spiking back up for the month. Recession risks seem to be fading but economic tensions might rise during this election season. Tougher rent laws seem to be causing the pain at NYCB, $929B in commercial-property loans are coming due. JetBlue gets a major bump from famed investor Carl Icahn.

Inflation cooled to 3.1% in January according to the January Consumer Price Index Report (CPI Report) thus cooling less than expected. The reaction to the 10 year treasury is pronounced. I go over the data, what it means for mortgage interest rates and the overall housing market going forward. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/mark-salib4/support

Overview: Tune into this week's episode of Launch Financial as we discuss January CPI data coming in hotter than expected. We will continue to watch how this will impact the Fed's decision on future interest rate policy and the potenital of cutting interest rates in the back half of the year.    Show Notes:

The Kansas City Chiefs are the Super Bowl champions once again. Moffett Nathanson's Robert Fishman lays out the impact on streaming. Plus, the IPO sector is rocketing higher. Renaissance Capital's Avery Marquez explains. And, investors are awaiting a number of market catalysts this week, including January CPI tomorrow. Principal Asset Management's Seema Shah and Infracap's Jay Hatfield discuss.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that the rest of the world doesn't actually need an expanding China. Their financial market struggles are - so far at least - having little impact elsewhere even as some investors take sharp losses in the Middle Kingdom, especially on bonds.The strength of the US labour market is on display again with jobless claims falling more than expected last week. There were 233,000 new claims last week a decrease of -32,000 from the week before. There are now still 2.1 mln people on these temporary benefits but that is slightly above year ago levels - although not when you account for the growth of their labour force over that time.Overnight, the USDA released its February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. They raised ending stock estimates for American corn, soybeans, and wheat more than traders expected. And they noted a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest. For 2024, beef import estimates were raised largely on higher expected imports from Oceania. 2024 milk production forecasts were lowered and the US expects to export less.The US Treasury had a big 30 year bond auction earlier today, one that was well supported. But the median yield rose to 4.31% from the 4.16% at the prior equivalent tender a month ago. Increases like this are evidence that global rates are still pushing higher.The Reserve Bank of India held its benchmark policy rate at 6.5% for the sixth consecutive meeting at its overnight meeting. This was as widely expected and comes amid persistent price pressure. Indian inflation rose to a four-month high of 5.69% in December due to rising food prices. But that is still within the RBI's generous 2-6% target range "in the medium term". However, dominating this review were questions about how they handled the blocking of Paytm.China released its January CPI data and it isn't calming nerves. Consumer prices fell by -0.8% in January from a year ago, marking the fourth straight month of decline which was the longest streak of drop since October 2009. This data came worse than market forecasts of a -0.5% fall, and is the steepest retreat in more than 14 years. Food prices declined at a record pace with beef prices down -7.7% in a year and lamb prices down -5.9%. Milk prices were more insulated, down just -0.8% in the year.Meanwhile the -2.5% drop in producer prices is actually an easing of the declines in the factory sector, even if it is running more deflationary than consumer prices.Global container freight rates dropped by a marginal -1% last week to remain very high on the shipping crisis induced by military actions and droughts. This minor shift overall masks big changes both ways on many key routes. Meanwhile bulk cargo rates are little-changed again at historically low levels.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 4.17% and up +6 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$8/oz from Monday at just on US$2031/oz.However oil prices are on the move up, up +US$2.50 to just under US$76/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$81/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at just under 60.9 and down a bit less than -¼c from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up nearly +¼c at 93.9 AUc. Against the euro we open at 56.5 euro cents and down -20 bps. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 70.4 and essentially unchanged from yesterday at this time.The bitcoin price starts today at US$44,991 and up a notable +4.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

The consumer price index (CPI) in January has risen by 3.37% over the same period last year, with core inflation increasing by 2.72%, according to the General Statistics Office.

Is global CPI going to follow the US CPI slowdown?Global MarketsGlobal CPI has leveled off and is slowing in DMs, but still rising in EMsEconomies across the world have GDP of about US$90trn and an average CPI rate of 7.4%The developed world has GDP of US$52trn and CPI of 6.9%And the emerging world has GDP of US$38trn and a higher 8.2% CPI rateWorld Jan. 2023 CPI was 7.4%, up 2.1ppts YoY; MoM DM continues to fall, while EM is risingDM Jan. 2023 CPI was 6.9%, up 1.5ppts YoY, but falling slightly MoMEM Jan. 2023 CPI was 8.2%, up 2.9ppts YoY, and is rising MoMKey pointsGlobal CPI was 7.4% in January, up 2.1ppts YoY, but it was flat MoMDeveloped world CPI was 6.9%, up 1.5ppts YoY, but falling slightly MoMEmerging world CPI in January at 8.2%, up 2.9ppts YoY, and it rose MoMDeveloped Markets RegionsCPI is contained in DM Americas, peaking in DM Europe, and rising in DM AsiaWith in the Developed Markets, DM Americas is the largest with US$25trn of GDP and 6.3% CPIDeveloped Europe has US$15trn of GDP and a higher 8.3% CPIDeveloped Pacific is smaller at US$8trn and has the lowest CPI of the developed regions at 5.1%DM Americas CPI falling, DM Europe peaking, DM Asia rising12 months ago, DM Americas had a 7.4% CPI which is now down to 6.3%, a 1.1ppts fallThis means that CPI went from 2.1ppts above the global average to 1.1ppts belowDM Europe rose from 4.4% 12 months ago to 8.3%, up 3.8pptsThis means it went from 0.9ppts below to 0.8ppts above the global averageCPI is racing up in DM Pacific from 1.5% 12 months ago to the current 5.1%, that's a 3.6ppts increaseIt has gone from 3.8ppts lower than World CPI to 2.4ppts lowerKey pointsDM Americas 6.3% January CPI is down from 7.4% 12 months ago; and has now shifted from being 2.1ppts above the global average to 1.1ppts belowCPI nearly doubled in DM Europe over the past 12 months from 4.4% to 8.3%, shifting from about 1ppts below to 1ppts above the global averageCPI in the must smaller DM Pacific region raced up from 1.5% 12 months ago to the current 5.1%; despite that massive 3.6ppts increase, it remains about 2.4ppts lower than the global averageEmerging MarketsEM CPI rising in Asia, Middle East and Africa, and Frontier markets on fireEM Americas had a small GDP of US$3.8trn and CPI of 7.9%EM Asia had a massive GDP of US$25.7trn and 3.2% CPIEM Europe had US$3.9trn GDP and a massive 23% CPIEM Middle East and Africa had a small US$1.7trn GDP and a high 10.2% CPIFinally, Frontier markets had US$2.9trn GDP and 30% CPIEM CPI rising in Asia, Middle East and Africa, and Frontier markets on fireEM Americas CPI was 7.9% in January, down slightly from 8.5% 12 months agoEM Asia CPI went from a tiny 1.9% 12 months ago to 3.2% and is still 4.3ppts below the World CPIMost notably, this has ticked up slightly MoMEM Europe CPI was 23% and over the past two months has been falling; though it is still 15.5ppts above the World averageEM ME&A CPI was 10.2% compared to 3.7% 12 months ago. It has now risen to be 2.8ppts above the world average compared to 1.7ppts below 12 months agoConsumer prices are on fire in Frontier markets up 30% YoY in January; this is double where they were 12 months ago; CPI keeps rising MoM and is now 22.5ppts above the world averageKey pointsEM Americas CPI was 7.9% in January, down slightly from 8.5% 12

Garbage in, garbage out. The phrase is usually associated with computers, but it also applies to the formulas used to generate government economic data. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey goes over the January CPI and retail sales data with that phrase in mind. You can visit the show notes page here: https://bit.ly/3S56b5F TOPICS COVERED -January CPI undercuts the disinflation narrative -Market reaction to the CPI data -More bad inflation news in PPI data -Disinflation is transitory -January retail sales blow past expectations -The dark side of the retail sales report -Why we should maintain a healthy skepticism when looking at all these numbers Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week's economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news.

It was our honor today to welcome back our good friend Dr. Dan Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global and Chairman of CERAWeek. As you all undoubtedly know, Dan is the Pulitzer Prize winning author of “The Prize,” the more recent author of “The New Map,” and is a highly esteemed and revered voice in the energy space. His achievements and contributions to the industry are immense and we were so thankful to have an hour of his time to discuss the state of the energy world.    We have spoken with Dan on COBT on two previous occasions. The episodes, although they took place in recent years, seem like they were eons ago. On May 5th, 2020 we visited with Dan during the initial depths of the COVID crisis. And just last year, we visited with Dan just days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It's stunning to think back on how different both of those worlds are from today.   As you will hear in today's episode, the range of topics covered was extensive. The items and issues included the US SPR levels, the North / South divide on the energy transition, the challenges of expanding minerals supply, the IRA, the strong push governments are giving the energy transition, the talk and the mood at Davos, Dan's perspective on European governments and their palpable return to reality on energy security, the different perspectives that will be showcased at CERA on the energy transition, and the US and China relationship. We also discussed Dan's recent study on the future of copper, Dan's view on natural gas and its long-term role, the automotive companies and their plans to go electric, how to plan in an energy boardroom with all this uncertainty, and observations on this year's CERAWeek conference. No surprise... it was a fantastic, thought-provoking discussion!   Mike Bradley kicked off the show flagging a few key items including the Valentine's Day above expectations January CPI print, potential for decreased natural gas activity, and OPEC's 2023 supply / demand forecast in the face of a wobbly economy. He then framed us up for the discussion with Dan by looking at how WTI, Brent, natural gas prices, gasoline and a few other items have moved since Dan's last COBT appearance on February 22nd, 2022.  Jeff Tillery also joined and peppered in his thoughts to the discussion.   As always, it was our pleasure to visit with Dan and we greatly look forward to CERAWeek. We hope you enjoy the discussion as much as we did! Our best to you all.

George Goncalves, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy, walks us through the worse than expected January CPI inflation report and the market's reaction. In general, we view the repricing of rates as appropriate but continue to be perplexed on the easing that remains for broader financial conditions. With the month at the half-way point, and overall economic data painting a picture that inflationary pressures still linger, the upcoming FOMC minutes from the January meeting might shed light on what the committee is thinking. Net as we have said before, it's not about what level the Fed gets to, but what are the conditions needed for them to stop hiking altogether. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

In the 9a hour, NewsRadio WFLA Anchor Chris Trenkman runs through today's top stories, including Florida Senator Marco Rubio working across the aisle to ban TikTok. Ryan runs through some Florida Man stories, and Dana shares how she got banned by Facebook over a Florida Man post. NewsRadio WFLA White House Correspondent Jon Decker checks in to discuss the 2024 presidential race. Chief Financial Analyst at BankRate Greg McBride joins the show for an in-depth recap of the new inflation report. Dana gives us a few updates on the Alex Murdaugh murder trial and a woman accused of attacking her lawyer in court. Scientists discover a drug that can "switch off" autism.

US stocks finish mixed after January CPI report; Dollar stable near one-month high; 10-year US Treasury yield approaches 3.8%; MOEX Posts Worst Day in Two Months Today highlights from global markets, presented by Blue Suisse for free. Visit Blue Suisse website for more!

➤ Workers at Tesla factory publicize unionization efforts ➤ January CPI report ➤ Renaissance Technologies buys TSLA shares in Q4 ➤ China insured vehicle numbers drop week over week ➤ Model 3/Y declared eligible for California rebate ➤ Tesla updates service display ➤ EU ban on ICE vehicles moves forward ➤ Ford pauses F-150 Lightning production, announces battery factory ➤ SpaceX update Shareloft: https://www.shareloft.com Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/teslapodcast Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/tesladailypodcast Tesla Referral: https://ts.la/robert47283 Executive producer Jeremy Cooke Executive producer Troy Cherasaro Executive producer Andre/Maria Kent Executive producer Jessie Chimni Executive producer Michael Pastrone Executive producer Richard Del Maestro Executive producer John Beans Music by Evan Schaeffer Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock & derivatives

On today's Daily Signal Top News, we break down: January consumer price index was “hotter than expected”President Biden calls for action after a mass shooting at Michigan State University claimed the lives of three students an injured five other students John Kirby says there's no link between the Chinese Communist Party and the other three objects the U.S. military shot down Nikki Haley announces her bid for president Relevant LinksListen to other podcasts from The Daily Signal: https://www.dailysignal.com/podcasts/Get daily conservative news you can trust from our Morning Bell newsletter: DailySignal.com/morningbellsubscription Listen to more Heritage podcasts: https://www.heritage.org/podcastsSign up for The Agenda newsletter — the lowdown on top issues conservatives need to know about each week: https://www.heritage.org/agenda Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Comedian Roseanne Barr joins Fox Across America With Jimmy Failla to talk about her new Fox Nation special “Cancel This!”, and shed light on how her industry has changed over the years. Jimmy slams Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg for spending more time worrying about diversity among construction workers than addressing the horrific disaster caused by the train derailment in Ohio. South Carolina Republican Senator Tim Scott explains how President Biden's weak posture on the world stage is being exploited by our adversaries. PLUS, co-host of “The Big Money Show” on Fox Business Brian Brenberg stops by to break down the January consumer price index report.   [00:00:00] Secretary Buttigieg finally addresses Ohio train disaster [00:37:03] Roseanne Barr [00:47:23] Senator Tim Scott [00:55:30] Assessing the 2024 GOP field [01:13:50] Reacting to the January CPI report [01:32:20] Brian Brenberg  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

US equities were choppy but finished roughly flat following a largely in-line January CPI report.

he market showed strength on Monday ahead of the much awaited January CPI results that are expected before the open tomorrow. Tonight on the Jon Sanchez Show at 5pm, we will discuss the market's setup into this number and set the table for what to expect in the case of a higher or lower than expected result.

US equities were sold-off in the hour of trade following the release of the highly anticipated January CPI report which showed inflation in the US remains stubbornly hot. For January, US inflation came in at a rise of 0.5% which translated to an annual gain of 6.4%, which was above economists' expectations of a decline in CPI to 6.2% YoY. The way inflation has remained stubbornly high is further support for the Fed to continue raising interest rates for a little while to come in order to cool inflation to the target range of around 2%. Stocks recovered in afternoon trade though to close mixed with the Dow Jones ending the day down 0.46%, while the S&P500 fell just 0.03% and the Nasdaq closed up 0.57%. The winning stocks in the US today were Boeing adding 1.25%, Nike rallying 0.83% and Chevron climbing 0.77%. Coca-Cola and Home Depot each fell 1.6% on Tuesday.Over in Europe on Tuesday markets closed mostly higher but pared back early gains as investors digested the mixed US inflation data for January that may prompt the Fed to announce further rate hikes. The Stoxx 600 closed 0.1% higher, Germany's DAX fell 0.11%, the French CAC rose 0.07% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 rose 0.08%.What to watch today:On the commodities front, oil is trading 1.4% lower at US$79/barrel, gold is down 0.28% at US$1848/ounce and iron ore is down 2.38% at US$123/tonne.Ahead of the local trading session, the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX to open 0.01% higher following the recovery on Wall St in afternoon trade.Reporting season continues today with some big names releasing results today including Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA), Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) and Fortescue Metals Group (ASX:FMG).The Aussie dollar is buying US$0.70 US cents, 92.84 Japanese Yen, 57.45 British Pence and NZ$1.10.Trading Ideas:Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Camplify (ASX:CHL) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 11-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may rise from the close of $2.05 to the range of $2.47 to $2.57 according to standard principles of technical analysis.Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Hansen Technologies (ASX:HSN) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 61-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $4.82 to the range of $4.24 to $4.34 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Singapore shares slid in early trade today following gains in US and Europe markets.   The Straits Times Index fell 0.1 per cent to 3,376.24 points in early trade after 47.7 million securities changed hands.  Some notable names seeing developments today included inflight caterer and ground handler Sats (S58).  The company reported a net profit of S$500,000 for the third quarter to December, reversing two consecutive quarters of losses, as aviation recovery continues. How significant is it for the company to swing into the black after earlier losses? Aside from that, Singaporeans are also keeping a close eye on the announcements made during Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lawrence Wong's Budget 2023 speech., as well as their effect on households and businesses. But to what extent have these influenced the STI's performance today?  On Market View, the Drive Time team posed these questions to Matthias Chan, Head of Research at SAC Capital. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Microsoft continues to rally as Alphabet struggles in the race for the crown in artificial intelligence. But can the recent dominance continue? Plus, markets jumped ahead of tomorrow's CPI print. But what will the latest read on inflation mean for the Fed and investors? Fast Money Disclaimer

On the eve of the January CPI data print, we reflect on recent market performance, including the fundamental and technical drivers. We also touch on the latest market outlook from the Chief Investment Office and review current positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US equities were higher in uneventful Monday trading, ending just off best levels. The Market is in waiting mode for January CPI data out tomorrow. The Disinflation momentum narrative, which has been a widely cited driver of the early 2023 strength, has come under some recent scrutiny, particularly with the bounce in used-car prices. The January NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed one-year inflation expectations is unchanged at 5%.

Join us as we take a look at the most recent market changes alongside our predications for January CPI!

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news American inflation is in the spotlight this week and will set the tone for markets worldwide.But first up in China, we got an indication of just how serious Beijing is to restart their economy after the pandemic. China's banks extended +¥4.9 tln in new yuan loans in January, well above market expectations of +¥4.0 tln and the largest amount of new loans ever. It is a monumental amount of new lending for just one month, +NZ$1.15 tln and for perspective for all of 2022, the approved a record +¥21.3 tln. In just January 2023 alone it raised that by almost a quarter! They aren't doing things by halves here and won't die wondering.China also reported January inflation at a +2.1% rate although the rise from December was at an annualised rate exceeding +9%. Still, this was very much as markets expected. The producer price deflation however seems to be staying minor.That is not the case in Japan where January producer prices came in +9.5% higher than a year ago (as expected), although in the December to January period they vanished.And staying in Japan, they are about to get a new, and somewhat unexpected Governor of their central bank. He is said to be "Japan's Ben Bernanke". The government's preferred candidate declined the promotion and the actual nominee has analysts searching for his likely policy preferences.India released December industrial production data and that revealed a solid if 'modest' rise in the context of what they had in the rest of 2022.In the US, the widely-watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey jumped to a thirteen-month high and beating market forecasts. It is just another brick in the evidence pile that a recession is some ways off yet.On Wednesday, we get the January CPI data and it isn't expected to dip much. It was running at a +6.5% rate in December and is expected to dip to +6.2% in January. But maybe the December to January rate will have moved up at a slower pace, possibly less than a +5% annualised rate. Anyway, markets will be focused on this American CPI data for much of the week.Across the border, the Canadian economy added +150,000 jobs in January, the most since February 2022 and much more than the market expectations of just a +15,000 increase. It is another impressive Canadian economic metric.Meanwhile, the Canadian loan officer survey reported improved lending conditions. In fact their non-housing lending conditions turned positive for the first time since 2020 when monetary conditions were much looser.In Australia this week, they will release their labour market data on Thursday and it is expected to be positive (adding +20,000 new jobs). But this news will probably be overshadowed by the central bank's governor giving testimony at their Federal parliament to a largely unsympathetic audience who wants to know why he has turned suddenly hawkish. His seven year term is up in September 2023 and it is increasingly unlikely the new federal Labor Government will reappoint him.The UST 10yr yield starts the week at 3.74% having risen +21 bps last week. The price of gold will open today at US$1866/oz and up +US$3 from this time Saturday.And oil prices start today unchanged at just under US$80/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just over US$86/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is still just under 63.1 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are little-changed at 91.2 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 59.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 70.6 and actually very little-changed over the past week.The bitcoin price is now at US$22,025 and up +1.5% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at +/- 1.1%.We trust you remain safe during Cyclone Gabrielle's landfall.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we will do this again tomorrow.

Learn more about CI Futures: http://completeintel.com/futures The Week Ahead with Tony Nash brings together experts Tony Greer, Albert Marko, and Tracy Shuchart to discuss the key themes affecting the markets. In this episode, the focus is on Inflation 2.0, Market Chaos, and Russian Supply Caps.Albert Marko leads the discussion on Inflation 2.0, and explains his view that inflation will re-accelerate this year. He talks about how various factors such as the Federal Reserve, a potential recession or slowdown, and war could impact his thesis. He also mentions the upward revision of December Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the upcoming release of the January CPI.Tony Greer then takes the lead on Market Chaos and explains why he is bullish on metals and oil. He discusses his views on copper and explains his outlook on crude oil, which he tweeted about in January.Tracy Shuchart focuses on Energy and the Russian supply caps. She talks about Russia's announcement to cut production to 500k barrels per day and what this could mean for crude quotas and price caps. She also discusses the impact on natural gas.Finally, the experts provide their expectations for the Week Ahead.Key themes1. Inflation 2.02. Market Chaos: Bullish Metals & Oil3. Russian Supply CapsThis is the 52nd episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerdAlbert: https://twitter.com/amlivemonTracy: https://twitter.com/chigrlTony Greer: https://twitter.com/TgMacroWatch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/QEP_uE3kxSM

U.S. equities gave up early gains and yields pushed higher as investors assess mixed earning results and economic data ahead of next week's January CPI print. Despite the late selloff in stocks, a weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors showed that investors are net bullish for the first time in nearly a year. Jared Dillian, the editor of the Daily Dirtnap, joins Maggie Lake to discuss sentiment, commodities, and more. We'll also hear a clip from Andreas Steno Larsen on why energy is underperforming despite China's reopening. Watch that entire interview here: https://rvtv.io/3HQOcuL Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news inflation's track has everyone's attention everywhere.But first, US jobless claims rose last week by +235,000 which was a small but significant rise and might signal the start of a weakening labour market there. And it was more than expected. Many will no doubt say the shift is too small to be significant, but it is a turn from the long string of declines in this leading metric. There are now 1.935 mln people on these benefits, also a minor increase.Staying in the US, we probably should note that despite the high-drama headline-grabbing brinkmanship surrounding their debt limit and resulting "extraordinary measures", their bond markets remain very calm with Treasury issues trading normally and ignoring the Congressional theatre.Meanwhile, the US Treasury says cloud computing poses risks to their financial sector. they say reliance on Amazon, Microsoft or Google could have broad consequences. They are flagging "all eggs in one basket" risks.Fitch Ratings has revised its forecast for China's economic growth in 2023 to +5.0%, from +4.1% previously, reflecting evidence that consumption and activity are recovering faster than initially anticipated after the authorities moved away from their “dynamic zero Covid-19” policy stance in late 2022.China will announce its January CPI inflation later today and it is expected to be at +2.2%, and up from +1.8% last month.Taiwanese inflation rose and by more than expected. To be fair, it is only from +2.7% to +3.0% in January so still very low in a global context. And their wholesale price growth actually fell in January from December, from a +7.1% rate to +5.6%. So the consumer price change may be just noise.German inflation however came in lower than anticipated at +8.7% when a rise to +8.9% was expected (from +8.8%). Again, these are small shifts so probably not really indicating that inflation is shifting lower there yet. A work in progress considering it peaked at 10.4% in October. The OECD reckons real household incomes are now rising in much of their bloc, principally because real incomes are rising in most of Europe and the US. Exceptions however are Canada, and especially the UK where there is a fierce fall of real household incomes underway. Brexit isn't working out for them.Global container shipping rates were little-changed again last week and remain well below their ten year average levels, and a huge drop from the pandemic spike. There is no sign of them turning up any time soon. Bulk cargo rates are also unchanged this week, and also low. Both are a sign that global trade is in a soft patch as big-power rivalries keep relations at arms length.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.60% and down -8 bps from this time yesterday. Rate inversions are getting serious now.The price of gold will open today at US$1873/oz and down another -US$2 from this time yesterday.And oil prices start today little-changed at under US$78/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just over US$84/bbl. They fell away in between but are now almost back to yesterday's level.The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps at just under 63.5 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are up the same at 91.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up slightly more at 59.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 70.7 and +30 bps higher than yesterday.The bitcoin price is now at US$22,535 down -1.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at +/- 1.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we will do this again on Monday.

General Advice only

The markets face a tough challenge this week that could set the tone of trading for the remainder of the year. The S&P 500 is facing a test of the key support level at 4,300 and buying may not be strong enough to keep the market above that level. If so, the door will be opened for a decline to 4,000 or lower. In that event, value and dividends will become even more important than ever. On tap for the market this week? The monthly read of core consumer inflation in the form of the PCE price index. The one thing evident in the forecast is that analysts are slow to make predictions given the pace of increase seen in the January CPI. As it stands, consumer-level inflation is close to the 10% range and could easily top that in the coming months. The takeaway for the market is to expect aggressive interest rate increases from the Fed and for S&P 500 margins to continue to compress.

China's consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, rose by 0.9 percent year-on-year in January, down from the 1.5-percent increase a month earlier. The National Bureau of Statistics said the January CPI is generally stable as departments worked to secure supply during Spring Festival. Meanwhile, China's official producer price index, or PPI, rose by 9.1 percent year-on-year in January, easing from a 10.3-percent rise in December. What do these rates tell us about China's economy?

We provide our ongoing economic forecast and suggest business advice that will help you overcome the challenges that are happening in our world.  Moreover, we are super delighted to have our dear friend Matt Wilson President and Financial Planner with Perpetual Lifestyle Planning join us as our special guest to discuss the much anticipated Heaven in Business Workshop scheduled for March 18th and 19th. Matt is one of the most accomplished financial planning entrepreneurs I have met to date and is gifted with a high aptitude for personal management.Resources mentioned: Teucrium - agriculture EFTs How a Fed Interest Rate Increase Could Affect You | WSJUS national debt passes $30 trillion | DW NewsETFs 101Inflation reaches 40-year high: January CPI posts 7.5% annual gainJoin us live every Monday at 10AM virtually by phone or video usingwww.ULECx.com/conference205-582-7042Disclaimer:  All opinions expressed on this podcast including the team and guests are solely their opinions.  Host and guest may maintain positions in the companies and securities discussed.This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as specific investment advice for any individual or organization.  

Caleb Silver, editor in chief of Investopedia talks to Brian about the January CPI and why it's likely that inflation will reach a 39-year high.

Major averages lower for the week. The big story was Thursday's hotter-than-expected January CPI print and subsequent Fed commentary. The market actually weathered this fairly well, but took a leg lower Friday on reports that a Russian invasion of Ukraine might be imminent. With 70% of the S&P 500 having reported Q4 earnings, we check in on some notable trends.

The Federal Reserve still seems to be hoping that inflation will just go away on its own or that it can jawbone it down by projecting a few little rate hikes. But the Consumer Price Index data keeps dashing its hopes. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey talks about the January CPI and the Fed's proposed "fight" against inflation. He also discusses the demand forecast for silver this year. You can visit the show notes page here: https://bit.ly/3LtRfdk Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week's economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news.

In this Macro Matters edition, host and BI Chief U.S. Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Lauren Goodwin, Investments Economist and Strategist at New York Life, and Interest Rate Associate Strategist Angelo Manolatos. Goodwin discusses her views on the inflation after the January CPI print surprised to the upside, and notes a risk that wages could continue to climb, making inflation more persistent. She explains which sectors she thinks will outperform and suggests the market may be pricing for too many Federal Reserve interest rate hikes this year - with four being her base case. Manolatos reviews how the market has re-priced for the path of Fed interest rate increases and notes that the terminal rate is approaching 2% on the back of the strong inflation print.

US equities lower on the hotter-than-expected January CPI report. The selloff was extended by hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed President Bullard. Still, the major indices cling to slim gains for the week. Disney rose on strong earnings, driven by parks and streaming.

US equities finished higher in Wednesday trading adding to Tuesday's solid gains. The market seems to have taken some support this week from more hopeful Covid updates suggesting a move back toward normalcy. The daily case rate has dropped sharply since its peak in mid-January, with hospitalizations also coming down quickly. In addition, there has been some speculation that Thursday's widely anticipated January CPI print may come in less hot than expected, which could further dampen expectations for a 50 bp liftoff at the March FOMC meeting.

US equities finished mixed in trading, coming off some late-afternoon strength in the last half hour to finish just off session lows. It was a fairly quiet session with no directional drivers in view, coming ahead of another busy week of Q4 earnings reports (another 83 S&P firms this week) and, more importantly, the release of the January CPI on Thursday.

“Brought to you by Absa ETFs”  Simon Shares Discovery* (JSE code: DSY) results were top notch and complicated as they always are. I own this stock as the business model really works, but as I have mentioned before the complexity adds risk. Risk I am happy with as most stocks I own have real simple business models. JSE (JSE code: JSE) results show HEPS down 6%. But look at value being traded these days. R25billion a day has become a regular feature, last year average was around R15billion. That equals lots of extra revenue in this financial year. Mining charter back to the drawing board. Good for local miners (of which we have very few). January CPI dropped to 4.4%, interest cuts coming to a prime rate near you? But budget may add to inflation (fuel being the one, not directly but will increase transport costs so food inflation). Up coming events; ABSA NewFunds ETF seminars (DBN, CPT, JHB and webcast) * I Hold ungeared positions #Budget2018 Firstly I think Cyril Ramaphosa may have played it real smart by letting Malusi Gigaba deliver the budget. He can now spend the next year claiming it was not his budget but a Zuma legacy budget. Overall not the train smash expected but still lots of tax increases with R36billion of extra tax. Lots of cuts to spending, R86billion over three years and which has to actually happen. VAT increased to 15% (first change since 1993), with 19 basic food items being zero-rated. Cue everybody suddenly caring about how this will hurt the poor. “Wealthiest 30% of household contribute 85% of VAT revenue”.  "The Old age, disability and care dependency grants will increase on 1 April 2018 from the existing R1600 by R90 to R1690 and by a further R10 to R1700 on 1st October 2018." GDP growth 1.5% in 2018 and rising to 2.1% in 2020. I hope they are very wrong on this. No changes to; Dividend withholding tax (DWT) CGT (40% inclusion rate with first R40k exempt) Tax-free limits (annual or life time) No Nuclear. Retirement funds will be allowed to invest up to 40% outside of SA - 30% "offshore" and another 10% elsewhere in Africa. JSE added 1.25% during the speech, USDZAR 8c and government bonds back at 8%, bond levels last seen three years ago. For our investments. Consumers being taxed, no surprise. But with inflation dropping leading to prime rate likely heading lower I still like the SA Inc. investment thesis. Overall - a good balancing act albeit still a tough budget. But could have been much worse and I think Moodys will not downgrade us on the back of it. Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.