Podcasts about personal consumption expenditures

In this week's episode, we delve into the big economic news shaping our world and portfolios. We provide updates on the job market, modest gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index and an uptick in inflation, new tax policies and the National Deficit, and what the Federal Reserve might be thinking for the rest of this year and beyond (notably, the long-lasting implications of the potential loss of safe haven status in U.S. Treasury bonds). Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed IncomeSean Poe, Director of Multi-Strategy Research 01:50 – Weekly unemployment claims were 240,000, an increase of 14,000 from the previous week's claims 02:22 – The second estimate for first quarter of 2025 GDP came in at -0.2%, a minor improvement from the advance estimate of -0.3%. Contributing factors were reduced consumer spending offset by investment increases. 02:55 – In inflation news, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (Core PCE) came in at a 2.5% increase year-over-year; this was the second month of slower results but still above the Fed's goal of 2.0%. Goods inflation continues to be deflationary, while Services inflation remains higher than desired. 05:19 – The trade war is not over as talks continue to evolve in unpredictable ways, exacerbating some of the swing we've seen in market behavior. Legal challenges to the imposition of President Trump's tariffs further complicate global trade deals, suggesting that a measured and diversified approach to portfolio management is a sound course of action. 08:00 – The U.S. annual deficit sits at $1.9 trillion. Proposed tax cuts from the House of Representative would add as much as $2.6 trillion in borrowing, making a potential recession more challenging to manage. This, in addition to the recent downgrades of the U.S. Sovereign debt, may have negative effects on U.S. Treasuries. 09:38 – Minutes from the Fed's May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting were released this week. Compounding uncertainties have immobilized the Fed from making clear decisions on monetary policy. Two rate cuts are expected for the remainder of 2025, with the first cut potentially at the September FOMC meeting. 12:00 – The 10-year Treasury bond note yield is below 4.5%, which is well below this year's previous peak, though the bond market is still less volatile than equities in times of economic and earnings uncertainty. Long-term investors are seeking to lock in yields of 5% or more and are considering padding their portfolios with high-quality corporate credit to mitigate future economic fluctuations. 14:40 – A primer on private equity: What it is, and what it looks like today. How might it fit into your investment strategy? We also provide an explanation of private equity secondaries investments and how they can be used. 17:09 – The private equity secondary market is projected to experience a 20%-25% increase in the market from 2024 and would then account for about a third of all private equity transaction value. Newsworthy recent examples of Harvard University and Yale University selling a portion of their private equity holdings to secondaries funds to free up liquidity in anticipation of an increased tax burden and future legal challenges. Additional ResourcesJoin us on June 11 for our Midyear Investment UpdateKey Questions | Key Private Bank Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment Brief Follow us on LinkedIn

US companies are putting up one of their best earnings seasons in three years, but the remaining companies continue this trajectory? And what’s the biggest earnings event of the week that you need to be aware of? Find out with Dan Koh as he is joined by Daphne Tan, Director of Business Development, CMC Markets Singapore to tell you all about it. They also analyse the expectations for the US’ Personal Consumption Expenditures data, Alibaba’s latest financial report card, the health of China’s economy, and what to expect in the week ahead for the gold market.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

U.S. Commerce Department released the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, what does this inflation gauge tell us about the direction of inflation. The Conference Board released the consumer confidence index for December, Kevin offers his perspective on the report. Initial holiday sales numbers are in, how do they compare to prior years? Oil prices react to the dollar's strength, hopes for addition fiscal stimulus in China, American Petroleum Institute reporting that U.S. crude oil stocks falling and expected confirmation of those declines by the Energy Information Administration. 

U.S. Commerce Department released the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, what does this inflation gauge tell us about the direction of inflation. The Conference Board released the consumer confidence index for December, Kevin offers his perspective on the report. Initial holiday sales numbers are in, how do they compare to prior years? Oil prices react to the dollar's strength, hopes for addition fiscal stimulus in China, American Petroleum Institute reporting that U.S. crude oil stocks falling and expected confirmation of those declines by the Energy Information Administration. 

Investing in Bizarro World Episodes: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLIAfIjKxr02sAztzlJNy1ug5bDvTVZkME&si=w2d_EF-B5jMo1dYD Subscribe to Investing In Bizarro World: @bizarroworld We hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving. As you wade through countless useless Black Friday and Cyber Monday emails, my aim is to provide you some actual value. Everything should be awesome if you are an asset owner. The stock market is near all-time record highs. Gold is near all-time record highs. Bitcoin is near all-time record highs. And the dollar is strong. How long can everything stay awesome? We endeavor to answer that in this week's episode of Investing in Bizarro World. It starts with an outlook for 2025 through the lens of an incoming Trump administration, cabinet, and appointees. And it continues with specific forecasts for gold and silver as we head into the new year. Inflation is returning just as we said it would. A few months ago we pointed to rising egg prices. But now orange juice, coffee, chocolate and many other commodities are breaking higher as inflation comes home to roost. Personal Consumption Expenditures, which the Fed uses to measure inflation, were back on the rise in October. Those expenditures climbed 2.3%, higher than their 2.1% rise in September. Indeed, prices are still rising. So it's ok to laugh and point fingers when you hear the media tell you prices fell over the last year and it should cost $58.08 to feed ten people for Thanksgiving. Those numbers are about as accurate as mainstream presidential polling. They love lying right to your face. We, of course, call it just like we see it. And what we see is a set table for uranium stocks. (These in particular will melt up soonest.) Details: https://bit.ly/4i8ZWdLWe also see private placements as the best way to add to your net worth, and we spend some time discussing them again this week. TikTok and Instagram are now full of financial advice and private investment offers. I saw one gentleman espousing private real estate deals as a way to afford the guacamole at Chipotle. While cute, the results from the deals we do lead us to ponder buying a Chipotle franchise to diversify our income streams more so than thinking about upgrading our condiments. It's worth recapping: Gold-Copper - We invested in a gold-copper company in June at 35-cents per share. Shares are up 80% since then and we have warrants to buy more that are already in the money. Lithium - We invested in a lithium company in August at 25-cents per share. Shares are up more than 250% since then and we have warrants to buy more that are already in the money. Uranium - We invested in a uranium company in October at 11-cents per share. Shares are up more than 130% since then and we have warrants to buy more that have already been in the money. Silver - We financed a silver company last month at 25-cents that is already up 75% (in less than a month!) and we have warrants to buy more that are in the money.What does ‘in the money' mean? It means we could exercise those warrants now and make even more money on the position with precisely zero risk if shares go down. See how to participate in these deals with us here: https://bit.ly/41dtmkEIn this episode, we espouse the benefits of private placements once again, and explain how they are different from other private deals you may have come across, especially in real estate. And we close out by going over some premium portfolio picks. This is one of the last times we'll do this for free. Starting in 2025, this premium part of the podcast will go behind a paywall. So enjoy it while it lasts. Holy guacamole, there's a lot to get to in this 295th episode of Investing in Bizarro World. 0:00 Intro1:19 Things That Are Awesome: Dollar, Stock Market, Gold, Bitcoin, Everything6:50 New Orleans Investment Conference Recap14:40 The Problem with Gold Stocks19:40 Different Types of Private Placements 27:00 Premium Portfolio Picks: Kingsmen Resources, Patriot Battery Metals, Q2 Metals, Aldebaran Resources, Cosa Resources, Denison MinesVisit our website Daily Profit Cycle for more content like this and more! https://dailyprofitcycle.com/

Matt Taylor, Senior Director, FTI Consulting, shares what to look out as Bitcoin marches towards the $100k level, as well as the significance of this week's Personal Consumption Expenditures price index reading for October.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of Crossing the Line, Host Greg Heym is joined by BHS' Senior Vice President of Research, Lisa Rae Castrigno, to discuss the Fed's favorite inflation gauge: Personal Consumption Expenditures, the latest on energy prices, jobless claims, the stock market, and much more. Filmed at Brown Harris Stevens' Studio 1873, Part of the Mastery of Real Estate (MORE) Network. Subscribe here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/crossing-the-line/id1715709313 Connect with Greg Heym here: https://www.bhsusa.com/about-gregory-heym Stay up to date on the latest market trends and insights by subscribing to Greg Heym's weekly email newsletter, The Line: https://www.bhsusa.com/blog/subscriptions Brown Harris Stevens is one of the largest privately owned real estate brokerages in the country, with more than 40 offices across four states: New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Florida. https://bhsusa.com/   Sponsors: CrossCountry Mortgage https://crosscountrymortgage.com/ The Everset https://theeverset.com/ #economy #realestate #theline #gregheym #inflation #consumerpriceindex #mortgage

Donate (no account necessary) | Subscribe (account required) Join Bryan Dean Wright, a former CIA Operations Officer, as he breaks down the key events shaping America and the world in this episode of The Wright Report. Highlights: Economic Insights: Discover the latest on U.S. inflation with the Personal Consumption Expenditures index and understand the factors driving up coffee prices. Learn why credit card delinquency rates are soaring and what it means for the economy. Border Realities: Uncover the truth behind President Biden's claims about border crossings and the implications for Vice President Kamala Harris. Homelessness Solutions: Explore California's new approach to dismantling homeless encampments following a Supreme Court ruling. Global Updates:Canada: Wildfires in Jasper, Alberta, and their impact on the U.S. oil supply. Venezuela: The looming election and potential mass migration to the U.S. Ukraine: The latest on U.S. aid, Russian recruitment challenges, and shifting public opinion on peace talks. Israel: The recovery of hostages' bodies from Hamas tunnels and its broader implications. Asia: Updates on student protests in Bangladesh and Thailand's economic stimulus efforts. Tune in for your daily dose of crucial news and expert analysis to stay informed and ahead of the curve. Don't miss this comprehensive and insightful episode of The Wright Report! "And you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." - John 8:32

In this week's episode of Money Wise, Jeff reports mixed performances among the major stock indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a significant drop of 934 points, or 2.3%, while the NASDAQ gained 235 points, or 1.4%, and the S&P 500 remained nearly flat. Despite these fluctuations, year-to-date figures show the Dow up by 3.7%, with the NASDAQ and S&P 500 achieving increases of 12.7% and 11.2%, respectively. The conversation delves into factors impacting the market, particularly focusing on major companies like Boeing and McDonald's, which contributed to the Dow's downturn due to specific operational and profit challenges. Additionally, despite excellent earnings from Nvidia that boosted the NASDAQ, the broader market exhibits signs of consolidation and uncertainty, reflected in trading volumes below the average and a general lack of conviction among investors.  Discussion also touched on the Federal Reserve's recent sentiments from meeting minutes, suggesting a cautious approach to interest rate cuts due to insufficient evidence of sustained inflation deceleration. This "higher for longer" interest rate scenario is causing investors to remain on the sidelines, content with safer returns from money market funds despite notable gains in sectors like technology. Looking ahead, the Money Wise guys emphasized the importance of upcoming economic reports, particularly the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, and speculated on the potential for a strong year-end market performance if May closes with significant gains, citing historical trends that suggest a high probability of continued upward movement.  Fluctuations in the Market Market fluctuations are a common feature of the investing landscape, driven by myriad factors ranging from economic data and corporate earnings to geopolitical events and market sentiment. As an investor, It's important to remember that such volatility is part and parcel of the investment process and adopting a long-term perspective is key to navigating these ups and downs effectively. Reacting emotionally to short-term market movements can lead to rash decisions, potentially derailing well-thought-out investment strategies. Instead, try maintaining a focus on your long-term financial goals, adhering to a diversified investment plan, and adjusting your portfolios in alignment with systematic, thoughtful analysis rather than momentary fears or euphoria, as this usually yields better results. This approach helps both in weathering periodic market turbulence and capitalizing on the opportunities that volatility can offer. In the second hour today, the Money Wise guys discuss the 10 Myths of Retirement Planning. You don't want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

This week on “Money Talks,” Chief Investment Officer Troy Harmon, CFA, CVA, and fellow Research Analysts Nick Antonucci, CVA, CEPA, and Jacob Keen, CFA, take a deeper dive into the trends seen in the stock market, economy, and the possibility of stagflation.Read the Article: https://www.henssler.com/interest-rates-stand-still-a-look-at-the-factors-holding-back-cuts-in-2024  

GDP First quarter GDP was a large disappointment as it grew at an annualized pace of 1.6%, substantially below the estimate of 2.4%. I will say, considering there is a lot of data to collect the first reading can be subject to major revisions. As a recent example, in 2023 Q1 GDP had an initial reading which showed an increase of 1.1%, but it was later revised to 2.2%. It is possible we could see a similar situation with this report. Given the current numbers, there were still some positives. Although it was below the estimate of 3% and down from the Q4 reading of 3.3%, consumer spending in the quarter still grew nicely with a gain of 2.4%. There was quite a large discrepancy between goods and services spending as goods actually fell 0.4% and services climbed 4%, which marked the best quarter since Q3 2021. Goods spending was largely dragged down by a 1.2% decline in durable goods. Private investment was also very strong in the quarter as it grew 3.2%, residential investment was a large contributor to that number as it increased 13.9%. Government spending was also positive in the quarter with a gain of 1.2%. With all these positives, you might be wondering how GDP missed expectations. Areas that were negative weights on the report included the change in private inventories, which subtracted 0.35% from the headline number and net exports of goods and services, which subtracted 0.86% from the headline number. Private inventories can be a volatile metric that will depend on businesses restocking inventory. I would not be surprised to see this number turn positive in Q2 considering Q4 of 2023 was also negative and subtracted 0.47% from the headline number. This followed a nice benefit of 1.27% in Q3 of 2023. If consumer spending remains strong, businesses will likely need to restock inventory which should be a benefit moving forward. As for the trade imbalance, this came as exports grew 0.9% in the quarter, but imports rose 7.2%. Overall, I wouldn't say this report was super strong, but I'm also not worried about the current standing of the economy as I am still anticipating a slowdown over a major recession.   Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) The release of the March core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) was I'd say lackluster. It wasn't as positive as I was hoping for, but I still don't think it was that bad. The core PCE of 2.8% came in slightly hotter than the estimate of 2.7%, but it matched February's number. Including food and energy, PCE increased 2.7%, which was also slightly higher than the estimate of 2.6%. Services continues to elevate prices as they were up 4% on a 12-month basis versus goods which increased just 0.1%. Overall, it is somewhat disappointing to see the deceleration in inflation slow, but numbers don't always follow a straight-line trajectory. It will be interesting to see this report over the next couple months, but as of now the estimate for three rate cuts is looking a little more questionable.   S&P 500 The S&P 500 remains expensive based on several valuation metrics, but that doesn't mean you can't find buys out there. Although the index trades around 20x forward earnings, about 20% of companies are bringing up that multiple as they trade at double the index's valuation. The positive is there is about 20% of the index that trades at half the index's multiple. Much of the dislocation comes from the excitement over growth stocks and the index now has more than two times the allocation towards growth (46%) over value (21%). Historically the allocation has been more balanced and on average over the last 30 years the split has been an allocation of about 31% for growth and 32% for value. I continue to believe that numbers like these will be a reason for value's outperformance going forward.   Technology & S&P 500  I have talked many times about my concern with the over-concentration of the S&P 500 index in technology. The sector controls about 30% of the entire index, but what is crazy is Amazon, Tesla, Meta, and Alphabet are actually classified as consumer and communication stocks which would then understate the tech weighting of the S&P 500 (If you count Tesla as a tech company). If these were included, the weighting would be over 40%. The last time the index was so concentrated in tech occurred before the dot-com bubble burst in 2000. If you've held the Magnificent Seven over the last couple years, congrats, but for those that enjoyed the movie, you may remember four of the seven end up dead. Could we see a similar fate with these stocks?   Nasdaq If you didn't do as well as the market in 2023, don't beat yourself up. The top 10 stocks greatly carried both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. In fact the average return for the top 10 stocks was 85.6% versus 16% for the other 490 companies. This meant that these top 10 stocks accounted for 63% of the index's return for the year. Over the past 30 years, the top 10 stocks have on average represented 24% of the index's growth. I do continue to worry many of these top 10 stocks could be a drag on the index and people's portfolios considering their lofty valuations.   Financial Planning: Do you Hold too Much Cash? Everyone needs some level of cash, and that number varies from person to person. For those with higher levels of assets, it can be possible to have too much cash which would be better off invested. We've seen people with $100k, $250k, $500k, or even over $1 million in cash which is likely way too much, even if it's in a high-yield account or CD. Over time, cash will not perform as well as invested dollars. Right now, there are places where cash can earn over 5%, but this is still lower than market returns of 8% to 10% or more. Also, those 5% yields will be coming down as interest rates decline. We know there's people out there who wait to time the market and invest their cash right at the bottom, but that generally doesn't work out. From a tax perspective, cash produces interest which is taxed at a higher rate than investment income like dividends or capital gains. When interest is taxed at 10% or 12%, investment income would be taxed at 0%, and when interest is taxed at 22%, 24%, or 32%, investment income would be taxed at 15%. Not only is cash taxed at a higher rate, but its entire return is reportable as income every year, there's no appreciation with cash. For example, if you have $500,000 of cash earning 5% for a total of $25,000, that entire $25,000 is reportable as interest income that year. If instead that $500,000 was invested in equities earning on average 8% made up of 2% dividends and 6% appreciation, you would only need to report the 2% dividend income of $10,000 as long as nothing is sold. This flexibility keeps your tax bill down but also reduces the chance of triggering AGI related issues like the net investment income tax or additional Medicare premiums. If you're in the 4th tax bracket with an 8% investment return of $40,000, you're only paying $1,500 in federal taxes from the dividends, plus $930 in state taxes if you're in California. Comparing that with your 5% cash return of $25,000, you'd pay $6,000 in ordinary income taxes, $2,325 in state taxes, plus potentially an extra $570 net investment income tax, and/or another $3,000 in extra Medicare premiums. Now that 5% yield becomes 2.6% after tax while the invested dollars return 7.5% after tax. Investing can be volatile in the short-term, but over time it is a much better option than hoarding cash.   Stocks discussed: Nordstrom (JWN), Netflix (NFLX), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Palentir (PLTR)

Henssler Money Talks – April 27, 2024Season 38, Episode 17This week on “Money Talks,” Chief Investment Officer Troy Harmon, CFA, CVA, is joined by fellow Research Analysts Nick Antonucci, CVA, CEPA, and Jacob Keen, CFA, to cover the week's market action and the first reading of First Quarter 2024 GDP. The Analysts take a deeper dive into the trends seen in the stock market, economy, and the possibility of stagflation. The show hosts round out the show by answering listeners' questions, including one about Teva PharmaceuticalsTimestamps and Chapters0:00 Market Roundup: April 22 – April 26, 202422:56 Case Study: Trends in the Economy and Stock Market 33:38 Q&A Time: Stagflation and Teva PharmaceuticalsFollow Henssler:  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HensslerFinancial/ YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/c/HensslerFinancial LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/henssler-financial/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hensslerfinancial?lang=en X: https://www.x.com/hensslergroup  “Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. Sign up for the Money Talks Newsletter: https://www.henssler.com/newsletters/ 

In this week's episode of Money Wise, the Money Wise guys discuss the financial market's performance, highlighting weekly, monthly, and year-to-date figures. For the past week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw an increase of 0.8%, the S&P 500 grew by 0.4%, whereas the NASDAQ fell by 0.3%. Reflecting on March's performance, the Dow Jones experienced a 2.1% increase, the S&P 500 rose by 3.1%, and the NASDAQ was up by 1.8%. Year-to-date figures reveal the Dow up by 5.6%, the S&P 500 by 10.2%, and the NASDAQ by 9.1%, marking the best start in five years and the best first quarter for the S&P since 2019. The Money Wise guys also touch upon the anticipation around the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index release, contrasting economic indicators such as PMI numbers indicating contraction and high consumer sentiment reflecting confidence. Additionally, positive economic news included an 8% increase in new home sales, a 1.4% rise in durable goods orders, and an upward revision of Q4 2023 GDP to 3.4%. The discussion includes a conversation surrounding their thoughts on if an imminent recession is going to happen, with analysts speculating about interest rate cuts, suggesting a range of zero to three cuts for the year, amidst adjusting market expectations. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is a measure of the average increase in prices for all domestic personal consumption. It tracks the price changes in consumer goods and services, including healthcare, education, and food, among others. As the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, the PCE index provides a broad overview of the inflationary pressures within the economy, helping the Fed in making informed decisions regarding monetary policy. Unlike the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the PCE index accounts for changes in consumer behavior and preferences, such as switching to alternative goods in response to price changes, making it a more comprehensive measure of inflation. This index is crucial because it influences the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates, which in turn affect economic growth, employment rates, and the overall financial well-being of individuals and businesses. Its significance lies in its role as an economic indicator that helps policymakers, economists, and investors understand the health of the economy and the potential for inflation or deflation. In the second hour today, the Money Wise guys discuss Equity Index Annuities. You don't want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

Labor Market While the headline number of 275k jobs created easily topped the estimate of 198k and sparked concerns the labor market remained too hot, the details of the report showed a much softer labor market. To begin, the prior two months saw a downward revision of 167k jobs, which more than offsets the beat we saw in the month of February. Also, while I generally am a little more skeptical of the household survey, it did show a decline of 184k in those that were counted as employed, which led to an uptick in the unemployment rate to 3.9%. This was above the estimate of 3.7%. I was also disappointed to see that government remained a large contributor in the establishment survey as the sector added 52k jobs. Outside of government, other areas that were strong included health care & social assistance (+90.7k), leisure & hospitality (+58k), and construction (+23k). Wage gains were also a bright spot in the report as average hourly earnings increased 4.3% compared to last year. This was below the estimate of 4.4% and below last month's reading of 4.5%. I believe this report continues to put us on track for 3-4 rate cuts in the back part of the year. JOLTs Report The January Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) was right in line with expectations and the previous month as job openings totaled about 8.9 million. This remains well below the high of 12.2 million in March 2022, but is still well above historical norms as prepandemic we had not seen a reading above 8 million. I continue to believe job openings will continue to trend lower to come back in line with historic levels. This does not mean we believe we are seeing a weak labor market, but I would call it a normalizing labor market. We have also seen a normalization in quits which should be a positive for wage pressure. Quits in the month were 3.4 million. This compares to annual quits of 44.4 million or 3.7 million per month in 2023. Total quits in 2023 fell by 6.1 million when compared to 2022. Looking at prepandemic levels, quits totaled 42.1 million in 2019 which would have been an average of 3.5 million. Layoffs were also strong in the month as they totaled just 1.6 million. This is right in line with 2023 levels as for the full year they totaled 19.8 million and averaged 1.65 million per month. In 2019, layoffs totaled 21.7 million and averaged 1.8 million per month. I wanted to provide all this data to show the labor market may be softening from strong levels, but I believe there is still some room to have numbers normalize without tilting us into a weak labor market. China What happened to China? The country had such a robust economy just a few short years ago, but the writing was on the wall. Here are the problems that caused the economic downfall. A real estate boom which accounted for 25% of China's annual economic output. The debt and inventory continued to rise in houses and condos but many remained empty with no one able to buy them. The government cutoff the debt to developers, which ended the real estate boom. Consumers who did buy into the expensive housing market in China leveraged beyond their means with the expectation that the growth would continue and they could sell out with a profit. Unfortunately, they are now sitting under water in much of their real estate, but still have to pay the debt and don't have much discretionary income to spend in other parts of the economy. China is now experiencing deflation, which will give them negative growth in parts of their economy for perhaps years to come. China's overall debts have now surpassed 300% of GDP with very little chance of the economy growing to pay down that debt. Many years ago, they put a cap on how many babies people could have and now that is hurting them with an aging workforce and a shrinking workforce. It will take years to reverse this. In the meantime, the economy remains underwater. Since 1998 foreign investment in China has always been on the upswing, but that run came to an end in the third quarter of 2023 as foreign companies sold out and left or just stopped investing in China. There is nothing left to build in China when looking at their infrastructure. They have built many roads, railroads and airports so there'll be no future investment in infrastructure. China has always been a communist country and I don't think they really understood capitalism very well. An economy will always go through the ups and downs, but the United States has been around for 200 years and we have learned some valuable lessons like 1929 and 2008. While we can't avoid the down turns, we have learned how to minimize the depths of the down turns. Personal Consumption Expenditures The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, known as the PCE and is the main inflation gauge that the Federal Reserve looks at came in with a good inflation number. Excluding food and energy the change from one year ago for January was 2.8%, which shows a nice downward trend from December 2023 of 2.9%, November 2023 at 3.2%, and then October 2023 at 3.4%. The numbers are going in the right direction, but they are now falling a little more slowly than the big jumps we had. I still believe by the end of the year we should be at 2%, which is the Fed's target and they should start reducing rates by midyear. Even though they won't be at their target of 2% by June or July they need to start reducing rates a little bit to prevent a recession in 2025. At Wilsey Asset Management, we do believe the Federal Reserve came to the rescue to reduce inflation a little bit late but have now done a good job on managing the economy. We continue to believe that the Federal Reserve will do a good job in 2024, but stay tuned as we will be on top of it each month as the data is released. Social Security Changes Coming? The State of the Union was this week and one of President Biden's talking points was Social Security. He stated, “Working people who built this country pay more into Social Security than millionaires and billionaires do” so he vowed to “make the wealthy pay their fair share”. It is true that millionaires and billionaires whose incomes do not come in the form of wages or self-employment do not pay into Social Security, but they are also not entitled to Social Security benefits in retirement. Working class people do in fact pay more into Social Security, but they are also the only ones who receive it. However, for people who do pay into Social Security, benefits are subsidized by high-wage earners and business owners for the benefit of low-income earners. As an employee, 6.2% of wages are withheld for Social Security up to a cap of $168,600. The Social Security benefit amount is based on 35 years of earnings which is used to determine the average monthly earnings. The full retirement amount will be the sum of 90% of the first $1,174 of average monthly earnings, 32% of the next $5,904, and 15% of any monthly earnings above that. For example someone who made $50,000 per year would receive $2,014 per month at their full retirement age which is 48% of their earnings. For someone who made $150,000 per year, their Social Security would be $3,759 per month which is 30% of their earnings. Even though both paid the same 6.2% of their income into Social Security, the lower-earner received a much larger percentage of their income in the form of benefits. In the case of business owners, they have to pay double the tax for a total of 12.4% because they are considered both an employee and employer, and they have to pay 6.2% for all their employees. So a business owner is really paying more into Social Security than all their employees combined. In regards to making the wealthy pay their fair share, there have been proposed bills that would tax earnings over $250,000, over $400,000, or possibly tax investment income. However, it is unclear if these additional taxes would change the potential benefit amount of those paying them, or if they would just benefit lower wage earners. There is no doubt that the Social Security system needs some adjustments, but we must understand the facts before implementing change.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures report is due out on Thursday and earnings are winding down. Is this the time for the market to pause? Bitcoin play Coinbase doesn't seem to be ready for a pause as it retook a buy point from a week ago. And homebuilder Dream Finders Homes also had a powerful breakout today. But when you look at Alphabet and Apple, these Magnificent 7 members aren't looking nearly as magnificent.

Today on the show, we welcome Institutional Portfolio Manager Beau Coash. He discusses about the expectations surrounding inflation, the similarities and differences about Canada compared to the 2008 financial crisis in the United States, and much more.  Beau explains how the US was able to add over 150 thousand jobs than what was initially anticipated. Major reasons for this included the opportunity for selective security investment which notes stabilization in the “big seven” companies, as well as significant productivity improvement expectations from them. NVIDIA is currently highlighted for its potential influence in the semiconductor industry, and other companies within that space will make an impact with NVIDIA as its centrepiece. Beau speaks on how the Federal Reserve's goal for inflation remains to get down to 2%, with the current progress to doing so being confusing. The Reserve prefers to use the Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation metric which currently indicates movement towards the 2% target, but the consumer price index hovers around 3.1 or 3.5%, a significantly higher figure. Recorded on February 2, 2024. At Fidelity, our mission is to build a better future for Canadian investors and help them stay ahead. We offer investors and institutions a range of innovative and trusted investment portfolios to help them reach their financial and life goals. Fidelity mutual funds and ETFs are available by working with a financial advisor or through an online brokerage account. Visit fidelity.ca/howtobuy for more information. For the third year in a row, FidelityConnects by Fidelity Investments Canada was ranked the #1 podcast by Canadian financial advisors in the 2023 Environics' Advisor Digital Experience Study.

Fed-Speak, PCE Price Index Data & Annualized Returns The Money Wise guys are back in the studio and this week's topics include the PCE Price Index, confusing Fed-speak and so much more. The guys kick things off with a look at last week's numbers from Wall Street. The Dow was up 1.3%, the S&P 500 was up 1.7%, and the NASDAQ was up 1.4%. YTD the Dow is up 3.8%, the S&P is up 6.7%, and the NASDAQ is up 6.6. Well, it was quite a week! The guys discuss the S&P's annualized return - which is surprising yet highly unlikely to remain up this much. The guys ponder how much of the Q1 performance we're seeing now is going to slow down as the year goes on, and they share confusion about this week's contradictory Fed-speak regarding interest rate cuts. What will the timeline really look like? Well, the Money Wise guys think we have many more months before we see cuts. They also discuss expected Personal Consumption Expenditures numbers, also known as the PCE Price Index, which we'll see next week, and which could push rate cuts back by as much as a quarter. Understanding the PCE Price Index The PCE Price Index, which is the common abbreviation for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, is expected next week. Why does the PCE Price Index matter? Well, this number is released each month as part of the Personal Income & Outlays report. The PCE Price Index is a measure of the prices that people living in the United States are paying for goods and services, meaning it relates to inflation. To learn more about the PCE Price Index and how it differs from the Consumer Price Index, check out this explanation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In the second hour today, the Money Wise guys discuss the RIA vs. Broker differences you need to know. You don't want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

In this Real Estate News Brief for the final two weeks of 2023... you'll hear the results of the last inflation report along with a few predictions for 2024 and some surprising data on the number of investors buying real estate in the Dallas area.   We begin with a report on the Personal Consumption Expenditures index which is the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. It shows the PCE dipped .1% in November for an annual rate of 2.6%. The core rate went in the opposite direction with a .1% increase for an annual rate of 3.2%. The core rate eliminates prices for food and gas. If you look at the data for “just” the last six months, the core rate was just 1.9% which is below the Fed's target rate. Economist Andrew Hunter told CNBC: “Adding in the further sharp slowdown in rent inflation still in the pipeline, it's hard to see any credible reason why the annual inflation rate won't also return to the 2% target over the coming months.”...   That's it for today. You can read more about the stories in this episode by following links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. I suggest that you also sign up for a free RealWealth membership to learn more about how to invest in real estate. And please remember to subscribe to this podcast, and leave a review!   Thanks for listening! Kathy Fettke   Links:   1 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/22/pce-inflation-november-2023-.html   2 - https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/12/pce-measure-of-shelter-slows-to-67-yoy.html   3 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/26/sp-case-shiller-october-home-prices-post-biggest-gain-of-2023.html   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-rise-for-second-straight-week-09add036?mod=search_headline   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pending-home-sales-flat-in-november-despite-drop-in-mortgage-rates-11e23e17?mod=search_headline   6 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   7 - https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-12292023   8 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/26/the-us-avoided-a-recession-in-2023-whats-the-outlook-for-2024.html   9 - https://therealdeal.com/texas/dallas/2023/12/29/investors-behind-nearly-a-third-of-dallas-area-home-buys/

  Landaas & Company newsletter  December edition now available. Advisors on This Week's Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom Tom Pappenfus (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Nov. 27-Dec. 1, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday New home sales declined in October, and prices fell as inventory increased slightly. The Department of Commerce said the annual sales rate dipped to 679,000, down nearly 6% from September's pace and nearly 18% ahead of the same time last year. The pace for new houses was down 12% from when the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates in early 2022; the rate was 3% behind its level just before the pandemic. The number of new houses for sale rose from September but was below October 2022. The median sales price dropped to $409,300, down 18% from year before. Tuesday While higher mortgage rates continued to suppress housing sales, relatively low inventories kept pushing prices higher in September, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index. The September index, unadjusted for seasonal fluctuations, rose to a record high for the third month in a row, up 3.9% from September 2022. The index was nearly 7% higher than in January, which marked a turnaround in momentum following months of declines tied to higher mortgage rates. A spokesman for S&P said the breadth and strength in the “rally” in prices supports optimism toward continued gains. The Conference Board said consumer confidence rose in November for the first time in three months. Opinions on current conditions inched down while expectations rose, though they remained low enough to suggest near-term economic recession. The business research group repeated its prediction of a short, shallow recession in 2024, but consumer expectations were the lowest so far this year. Among the concerns expressed by consumers were rising prices generally as well as war and interest rates. Wednesday The U.S. economy grew faster than previously estimated in the third quarter, rising at an annual pace of 5.2.%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. Stronger business investments and increased spending from state and local governments helped offset slower consumer spending since an earlier estimate of 4.9% growth in the gross domestic product. The 5.2% pace was the highest since the end of 2021 and compares with a 2.1% rate in the second quarter of this year. Without annualizing the figures, inflation-adjusted GDP climbed 3.4% from the third quarter of 2022. The Federal Reserve's favorite measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditure index, rose 3.4% from the year before, the slightest increase since the beginning of 2021. Thursday A key driver of the U.S. economy, consumer spending, rose in October at its slowest pace since March. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said personal spending and personal income both rose by 0.2% from September. Personal saving rose slightly but was about 40% lower than just before the pandemic. The same report showed the Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose 3% from October 2022, the lowest inflation rate since March 2021. That was down from a 41-year high of 7.1% in June 2022. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the second week in a row, remaining around 40% below its 56-year average. The Labor Department also reported that total claims rose more than 4% from the week before to just under 1.7 million. That was up 23% from the same time last year. The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index sank 1.5% in October, reaching the lowest point since it was created in 2001. The index of contract signings was down 8.5% from the year before. The trade group blamed higher interest rates for the record low and said that recent drops in rates won't be enough to offset a chronic shortage of houses for sale. Friday Manufacturing contracted in November for the 13th month...

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending October 28th, 2023... inflation is still simmering, homebuyers come on strong in September, and the “Survive to 2025” mess from one real estate group.   We begin with economic news from this past week that was highlighted by a report on inflation. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, or PCE, rose more than expected in September. The government reported a .4% increase which translates into an annual rate of 3.4%. That's still uncomfortably higher than the Fed's 2% target. The core rate was up .3% for an annual rate of 3.7%. The core rate omits prices for food and fuel, which can be volatile. The PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation tracker and is sure to be discussed during the Fed's next policy meeting. MarketWatch reports that economists and investors are predicting that the Fed will “not” increase rates this time around...   ...That's it for today. You'll find links to the full articles in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. If you want to learn more about the real estate market, buying rentals, and becoming job optional, please sign up for a free RealWealth membership. And please remember to subscribe to this podcast, and leave a review!   Thanks for listening! Kathy Fettke   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-rises-faster-than-fed-feds-preferred-pce-price-tracker-shows-ac66d186?mod=economy-politics   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gdp-jumps-4-9-as-the-u-s-economy-speeds-up-dcffe349?mod=livecoverage_web   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-rise-slightly-remain-in-ultra-low-territory-a27b860e?mod=livecoverage_web   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-new-homes-sales-rebound-in-september-surging-12-3-66075afb?mod=economy-politics   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pending-home-sales-stay-near-record-low-despite-modest-pickup-in-september-2f04f497?mod=mw_latestnews   6 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   7 - https://eyeonhousing.org/2023/10/housing-demand-caught-between-high-rates-demographics/   8 - https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/capital-markets/near-9-in-10-cmbs-office-loans-default-in-september-121332   9 - https://www.globest.com/2023/10/25/advice-for-property-owners-survive-to-2025/

2023.09.25., hétfő 8-9 óra ADÓVILÁG: a legnagyobb lítium kitermelők - Namíbia Namíbia az egyik legfiatalabb ország a világon, függetlenségét 1990-ben nyerte el. Korábban Dél-Afrikához tartozott, azelőtt német gyarmat volt. A gyarmati múlttal és klímaváltozás negatív hatásaival egyaránt küszködő sivatagos ország azonban komoly ásványkincsekkel rendelkezik, a lítium és gyémánt mellett nemrég komoly olajmezőt találtak a partjainál. Gerendy Zoltán, a BDO Magyarország ügyvezetője, adótanácsadó partnere és Feledy Botond, külpolitikai szakértő.   ARANYKÖPÉS: "Az éretlen művészek másolnak, a nagy művészek pedig lopnak." - William Faulkner (1897) PIACI HOTSPOT:  A múlt hét a Fed döntéséről szólt, az amerikai kamatpálya alakulása miatt. Érdekes lehet az amerikai infláció mértéke, amelyről adat, a Personal Consumption Expenditures pénteken érkezik. Az S&P500 az ún. “Magnificent Seven” nélkül nem is lenne. Turner György, az Erste Befektetési Zrt. USA Desk üzletkötője.

  Landaas & Company newsletter  September edition now available. Advisors on This Week's Show Kyle Tetting Adam Baley Kendall Bauer (with Max Hoelzl, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Aug. 28-Sept. 1, 2023) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major releases Tuesday Higher mortgage rates may be dampening demand for home buying, but house prices continued to rise in June, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national index. Prices were unchanged from the year before, but the fifth monthly increase in the index suggested a return to accelerating prices after months of slowdown pegged to higher mortgage rates. Half of the cities in a 20-city composite index hit record prices in June.  And though broad gains "could be truncated by increases in mortgage rates or by general economic weakness," a spokesperson for the longstanding measure said analysts foresee further price gains. With lower expectations for stocks and higher expectations for interest rates, consumer confidence waned in August, offsetting two prior months of gains, the Conference Board reported. The business research group saw renewed concerns about prices for groceries and gas despite months of slower inflation, and consumers expressed less confidence in the job market. The Conference Board said expectations overall were barely above a level that typically indicates recession. Employer demand for workers slowed in July with job openings declining to 8.8 million posts, the lowest since March 2021. As many as 12 million openings were posted in the spring of 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but demand still remained well above the pre-pandemic high of 7.6 million openings. In a sign that workers may be losing confidence in the labor market, the number of workers quitting their jobs to seek other positions decreased in July, especially at larger employers. Wednesday The U.S. economy grew at a 2.1% annual pace in April through June, down from an initial estimate of 2.4%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said it revised gross domestic product lower because inventory buildups and fixed commercial investments weren't as strong in the second quarter as earlier data suggested. State and local governments spent slightly more than initially estimated. The pace of consumer expenditures, which generate about two-thirds of economic activity, was revised up to 1.7%. The Federal Reserve Board's favorite measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, rose 3.7% from the second quarter of 2022, the slowest pace in more than two years. The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index rose 0.9% in July. The monthly gain was the second in a row, but commitments to buy houses were down 14% from July 2022. The trade association said it sees potential for further growth in home sales but acknowledged ongoing challenges from higher mortgage rates and limited inventory. Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims rose for the fourth week in a row, though it remained 35% below the 56-year average, suggestingcontinued reluctance by employers to let workers go. According to the Labor Department, total claims rose 0.5% from the week before to 1.7 million, which was up 27% from the 1.4 million claims the same time last year. Two years ago, claims exceeded 12 million. Personal spending rose 0.8% in July, the most since January, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. The spending increase dwarfed the month's 0.2% gain in personal income, resulting in the personal saving rate declining to 3.5% of disposable income, down from 4.3% in June and 9.3% just before the COVID-19 pandemic. The PCE inflation index rose 3.3% from July 2022, up from a 3% rate in June. Friday U.S. employers continued adding jobs in August, and the unemployment rate ticked up as more job seekers entered the pool. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said payrolls expanded by 187,

The gold market is seeking direction, noted Kitco's mining audience manager Michael McCrae. On Friday McCrae recorded Kitco Roundtable with Kitco correspondent Paul Harris. McCrae noted that the big news this week was the  Federal Reserve pushing interest rates to a 22-year high on Wednesday. The Fed resumed its hikes from last month's pause. The big data point this week was core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increased 0.2% last month, compared to May's increase of 0.3%. The report revealed that in June inflationary pressures continues to diminish while consumer spending continues to expand. The news sent equity markets higher. Despite the data, analysts say markets are too unsettled. "The market is desperate for any type of clarity. Right now, the Federal Reserve is going to maintain their hawkish bias because they want to see inflation go down further, so any soft data that will shift that bias will be good for gold," argued Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, in an interview with Neils Christensen. The drop in commodity prices have been hitting the base metal miners.  Rio Tinto said its net earnings amounted to $5.1 billion  for the six months ended June 30 2023 (HY23), down 43% compared to HY22.  In a press release, Rio Tinto noted "softer” market conditions.  Teck that saw Q2 profits of C$510 million compared to C$1.5 billion a year prior.      

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.The first half of 2023 has been marked by economic volatility, major regional bank failures, continued monetary tightening and ample talk of an upcoming recession. However, the overall economy remains on steady footing. GDP increased at a 2% annualized rate in Q1 according to the final estimate released last week. Employment remains the backbone of the economy, as the American labor force continues to add jobs at a very strong rate. The public equity markets have had a very good start to the year with the S&P 500 up 16.4% year-to-date. Inflation continues to decelerate, as the Personal Consumption Expenditures index posted a 3.8% annual growth rate in May. As of now, the soft landing that many economists were questioning when the Fed began raising rates at a torrid pace, is very much in play. There may be a slight recession, or the economy may continue its expansion. Either way, the magnitude of growth or decline will be limited in the second half of 2023 and into 2024.Multifamily fundamentals remained flat to end the first half of the year, providing further evidence of a generally weak spring leasing season. Net effective rent is down 80 basis points year-over-year, and it is difficult to see that trend reversing over the course of the next six months. I expect a typical late Q3 and Q4 rent decline, which should keep year-over-year rent growth negative at the national level. Traffic and leases have yet to decline, but they did not experience significant growth during Q2. Spring is traditionally the strongest period for leading indicators, and the growth we've seen in past years just never materialized this year. Occupancy continues to decline and may drop below 94% at the national level if renter demand weakens furtherExplore our Research webpage for more insights and resources: https://bit.ly/RadixResearch

In places with increasingly frequent, destructive and costly natural disasters, insurance costs are going up. Major providers are pulling out of high-risk markets, and remaining coverage options are getting more expensive. How do insurance companies put a price tag on climate change-driven hazards? We’ll also take a look at how small businesses decide whether to raise their prices, ahead of the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures index.

In places with increasingly frequent, destructive and costly natural disasters, insurance costs are going up. Major providers are pulling out of high-risk markets, and remaining coverage options are getting more expensive. How do insurance companies put a price tag on climate change-driven hazards? We’ll also take a look at how small businesses decide whether to raise their prices, ahead of the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures index.

Markets are eerily calm this morning following the dramatic end to an armed uprising in Russia. This week marks the last week of trading for the first half of the year, so the first conclusions will be drawn with regard to market performance this year. The headlines this week are likely to include the ECB's Bank Forum in Sintra, the release of the Fed's favourite inflation gauge (the Personal Consumption Expenditures deflator), and the US bank stress tests. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, joins today's episode to explain the technical patterns in precious metals.00:14 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:34 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)05:49 Technical analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)07:44 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Gold dropped end of week after less than rosy economic data was released, noted mining audiences manager Michael McCrae. On Friday McCrae recorded Kitco Roundtable with correspondent Paul Harris. The U.S. annual core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index came in at 4.7% in April versus the consensus forecast of 4.6%. The U.S. central bank favors this gauge because the core inflation strips out volatile food and energy prices. Gold fell following the data release, with June Comex gold futures last trading at $1,946.80 an ounce. Data shows that inflation may not be coming down fast enough could increase bets that the Federal Reserve still has more room to tighten.Major gold miners are down for the year. Newmont is off 18% year to date, Barrick is down about 5%. The lithium sector saw a spate of deals early this week. Ford Motor Company early this week inked supply agreements with Albemarle, Nemaska Lithium and Compass Minerals.Albemarle will supply more than 100,000 metric tons of battery-grade lithium hydroxide for approximately 3 million future Ford EV batteries. The five-year supply agreement starts in 2026 and continues through 2030.Nemaska will supply Ford with lithium products, including lithium hydroxide, over an 11-year period. The agreement calls for the delivery of up to 13,000 tons of lithium hydroxide per year. Ford's big move comes after a lot of major mining deals before it. Early this year GM announced a $650 million deal with Lithium Americas. Ford has done other deals. A year ago signing an offtake with ioneer and Liontown Resources. Ford is the second-largest U.S.-based automaker 

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report. This will be an important week both from a data and commentary perspective as it relates to the Fed's future decisions on monetary policy. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, will be released Friday. Six different Fed Governors or Regional Fed Presidents are also scheduled to give speeches this week. Explore our Research webpage for more insights and resources: https://bit.ly/RadixResearch

Dow Jones up 415 points (+1.26%) closing near its highs. Up 432 at best. Up 43 at worst. S&P 500 up 1.36% taking it up 3.39% for the week. The NASDAQ up 1.74% taking it up 3.03% last week. The NASDAQ was up 16.8% in the last three months with the US Tech sector up 21.8%. That follows the 33% fall in the NSADAQ last calendar year.SPI Futures up 45 this morning. The ASX 200 has had a good week rising 223 points or 3.20%. That was led by the resources sector up 6.6% with banks also recovering up 2.2%. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.Finally, for the quarter: The S&P 500 advanced 7.03%, and the Nasdaq rallied 16.77%. The Dow inched higher by 0.38%. Bitcoin is up 72% for the quarter!Catch up on the latest news with Henry Jennings' Pre-Market Podcast.Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.

Welcome back and we're grateful that you're with us again today as we report on some of the big business news stories of the day. One other thing for you to know about is that tomorrow at 8:30AM Eastern we'll get a reading on inflation as the The Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release Personal Consumption Expenditures or PCE. That should give us a reading and, perhaps a glimpse of what to expect from the Fed? Also, remember that you can hook up with us all day on Twitter @IOB_NewsHour and on Instagram.  Here's what we've got for you today:   Will they or won't they go...bankrupt; Notice something odd about canned drink products? Another day another Dominion vs. Fox News story; Unemployment claims ticked up a bit and; Do you see anything cruel about cheering for more unemployed families? Sam's Club targets Costco with another cheaper food item; The Wall Street Report; Big cities are seeing a rebound in population; And, we'll share what percentage of workers are remote...all the time. Thanks for listening! The award winning Insight on Business the News Hour with Michael Libbie is the only weekday business news podcast in the Midwest. The national, regional and some local business news along with long-form business interviews can be heard Monday - Friday. You can subscribe on PlayerFM, Podbean, iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher or TuneIn Radio. And you can catch The Business News Hour Week in Review each Sunday Noon on News/Talk 1540 KXEL. The Business News Hour is a production of Insight Advertising, Marketing & Communications. You can follow us on Twitter @IoB_NewsHour.

A slew of key US economic data are expected these two days, such as the Personal Consumption Expenditures, (PCE), US GDP and jobless claims, what can investors look out for?  Plus, is it time to enter the China market with the historic Alibaba restructuring? On the Bigger Picture, Willie Keng speaks with Vasu Menon, Executive Director, Investment Strategy, OCBC Bank to find out more.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Fed may have a difficult time determining its progress against inflation later this year, as the two biggest inflation indicators contradict each other. The Federal Reserve prefers the Personal Consumption Expenditures index or PCE as a basis for its 2% inflation target. But due to the differences between the PCE and the Consumer Price Index or CPI, they might reverse their roles and cause confusion.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please don't forget to subscribe to our podcast, and leave us a five-star review if you like what you hear!   The CPI is more closely watched by average Americans, and it's been the one to show the highest level of inflation. But according to an analysis in the Wall Street Journal, as inflation subsides, it could drop below the PCE, making it difficult for the Fed to explain rate hikes based on the PCE. (1)   Difference Between the CPI and the PCE Indexes   Economists are betting that the CPI will fall to 2.6% in October while the PCE will drop to about 2.8%. Barclays inflation expert, Michael Pond, says: “That will leave market participants looking at low inflation while the Fed looks at a measure that tells them they need to continue to be quite hawkish.”    The two indexes perform differently because they place different amounts of emphasis on various components of the economy. For example, housing makes up 33% of the CPI which is more than twice the size of the housing component in the PCE. Shelter inflation is rising about 8% per year right now in both indexes, so the strength in housing in pushing the CPI higher. As the Journal reports, it contributed 2.5 percentage points to the CPI's January reading of 6.4% while it only contributed 1.2 percentage points to the PCE's January report.   Piper Sandler economist Jake Oubina expected CPI shelter inflation to fall from 8.1% in March to 5.5% in December. If that happens it will weigh more heavily on the CPI, bringing the total amount of inflation down by a larger percentage than the PCE.    Economists also believe that medical care costs will play a role in this disconnect between the CPI and PCE. Those costs are expected to rise this year. They make up 16% of the PCE and just under 7% of the CPI. If they do go higher, that will put more pressure on the PCE than it does on the CPI.    There's also concern that energy costs will help invert these two indicators because they make up 6.9% of the CPI and just 4% of the PCE. If energy costs keep falling, that will exert more deflationary pressure on the CPI.    CPI Could Drop Lower than the PCE   City economist Veronica Clark told the Journal that a combination of the factors could bring the CPI down to 3.2% by June while the PCE is closer to 3.6%. She expects the gap to be even bigger for core inflation. She says: “For the Fed, the message could be kind of tricky. They target PCE, technically, so as long as the PCE remains high, they can't declare victory.”    You'll find a link to the Wall Street Journal article in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. We also invite you to become a RealWealth member. It's free and will give you full access to all our real estate data and resources, including property tours in several markets over the next few months. You'll find information on those tours inside the Realty Portal on our website. I would also like to remind everyone to please subscribe to the podcast if you haven't done so already and leave a review!   Thanks for listening, Kathy Fettke   Links:   1 -  https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-might-be-winning-inflation-fight-depending-on-index-used-56d3e31b?mod=pls_whats_news_us_business_f

Season3, Episode 7: Are we really heading toward a recession? What's the latest and greatest?ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 3, Episode 7 (7:34 in length), Dr. Kuehl talks to ASA members about all the recent hysteria concerning whether or not a recession could be in our immediate plans.How real is this threat?Have inflation numbers gotten worse?Why you should care about the Personal Consumption Expenditures number!What inflationary measures have decreased in recent times?What's the one inflationary measure that has everybody cowering in fear?What Bank of Canada did that we should be aware of. Will the Fed go there?What does CK think about all this? Recession or no recession? What is a soft landing?Q1 projections? Good, bad, real bad?Why ASA members should pay close attention to Dr. Kuehl's remarks on inventory here.Ask Dr. Kuehl a QuestionHave a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast or on his monthly ASA members only webinar? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

I n this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending February 25th, 2023... the latest disappointing report on inflation, a Q4 report on investor home-buying activity, and a new prediction for institutional ownership of single-family rentals.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week and a report that inflation remains stubbornly high. According to the Personal Consumption Expenditures index or PCE, the cost of goods and services rose .6% in January. That's the largest increase since last summer, and raises the annual rate from 5.3% to 5.4%. The core rate, which excludes food and fuel, was also up .6% and raises the annual core rate of inflation from 4.6% to 4.7%. The disappointing results follow two other hot inflation reports for January. It's not clear if this is just a blip in the battle against inflation or a change of course, but it does suggest that the Federal Reserve may keep its foot on the rate hike gas pedal. (1)   The next meeting of the Federal Reserve Board is March 21st and 22nd, so a lot can happen between now and then. Fed officials raised the rate a quarter point during their February meeting to a range of 4.5 to 4.75%. The minutes show there's unanimous support for continued rate hikes although some Fed officials believe the economic risks have become more balanced and not just focused on inflation. A few members suggested the need for a half point rate hike to speed up the Fed's inflation-reducing strategy but it wasn't written into the minutes as an effort supported by all members. (2) (3)   Several of the regional Fed Presidents also spoke out last week, including Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester. She said last Friday that interest rates may need to move higher to curb inflation but she's still optimistic that it can be done without triggering a recession. (4)   And it's “so far so good” for the job market. U.S. jobless claims were lower last week by about 3,000 to a total of 192,000. That's below the forecast and a sign of strength for the job market. (5)   On to the housing market…   New home sales were up 7.2% in January thanks to strong sales in the South. They were up 17.1% in the Southern region and down everywhere else. The Northeast had the biggest drop of 19.4%. U.S. year-over-year sales are still down 19.4%. (6)   Existing home sales were also higher in the South and the West, but they were down overall by .7%. As reported by MarketWatch, the amount of sales activity was the lowest since October of 2010. Year-over-year, they were down 36.9%. (7)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates floated higher last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was up 18 basis points to 6.5%. The 15-year was up 25 points to 5.76%. Freddie also said that as average rates rise, there may be a big difference in rates from lender to lender so it's best to shop around. (8)   In other news making headlines…   Real Estate Investor Activity Down Almost 50% in Q4   It isn't just retail home buyers who are sitting on the housing market sidelines. Many investors are too. A new Redfin report shows that investor home purchases were down 46% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, but the share of homes bought by investors is about the same. It slid from 19% to 18% for the year. (9)   Redfin says that investors had piled into the market in 2021 because of low mortgage rates and high demand for housing. But many are now waiting for rates and prices to come down. Florida agent Elena Fleck says: “A lot of investors are on hold because they still see home prices declining.” She says: “The investors who are in the market are selective and aggressive. Many of them are only offering around 60% of the asking price since it's so difficult to make a profit when flipping homes right now.”   Investor activity varies from market to market. The report says investors activity is down the most in pandemic boomtowns like Phoenix and Las Vegas. But there are many markets where the investor share of purchased homes is higher, including Miami, Jacksonville, Atlanta, and Charlotte.    Will Institutional Investors Own 40% of Single-Family Rentals by 2030?   The institutional ownership of single-family rentals could mushroom over the next several years. According to an analysis by MetLife Investment Management, their share was about 5% early last year, and by 2030, it could be more than 40%. That's about 7.6 million homes controlled by rental portfolio giants like Tricon Residential, Progress Residential, American Homes 4 Rent, and Invitation Homes. (10)   Representative Ro Khanna from California authored the “Stop Wall Street Landlords Act of 2022.” If it passes, it would provide disincentives for institutional investors such as an excise tax on the sale or transfer of a single-family home that's equal to the price of the home. It would also eliminate deductions for mortgage interest, insurance, and depreciation. (11)   That's it for today. Check the show notes for links, and join RealWealth if you'd like to know where it still makes sense to invest in single-family rentals. We're offering several market tours over the next few months. You can join RealWealth and check out the tours at newsforinvestors.com.   And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!    Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-jumps-in-early-2023-pce-shows-and-stays-stubbornly-high-e406552a?mod=economy-politics   2 - ​​https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-minutes-show-some-officials-thought-easier-financial-conditions-could-mean-tighter-monetary-policy-bf431e25?mod=federal-reserve   3 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/22/fed-minutes-february-2023-minutes-show-fed-members-resolved-to-keep-fighting-inflation.html   4 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/24/feds-mester-says-she-has-hope-that-inflation-can-be-brought-down-without-a-recession.html   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-jobless-claims-stay-firmly-below-200-000-for-6th-straight-week-2ccc7a46?mod=mw_latestnews&mod=home-page   6 - ​​https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-new-home-sales-rise-by-7-2-despite-weakness-in-the-broader-sector-13f6dde4?mod=economic-report   7 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/existing-home-sales-fall-for-the-12th-straight-month-in-january-lowest-since-2010-17a703ba?mod=economic-report   8 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   9 - https://www.redfin.com/news/investor-home-purchases-q4-2022/   10 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/21/how-wall-street-bought-single-family-homes-and-put-them-up-for-rent.html?__source=realestate%7cnews%7c&par=realestate   11 - https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/9246?s=1&r=2

The Economy and The Fed   The Fed's “preferred” inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures or PCE, not only came in worse than expected, but the prior three months were all revised higher. The whole thing throws cold water on the ‘disinflation' buzz and the rally we've seen so far this year. On a year-over-year […] The post Inflation and Market Volatility first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

On the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the US is planning to make an announcement today about “sweeping sanctions”, while China has made a proposal calling for a cease-fire. The major US markets ended the day in the green yesterday, with technology the biggest outperforming sector, and today investors will be watching for the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for January. Bence Boldvai, FX and PM Solutions Zurich, provides an update on currencies, and Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research analyst, shares his thoughts on emerging market equities.00:14 Introduction and markets wrap-up by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) 03:23 FX update by Bence Boldvai (FX&PM Solutions Zurich)05:42 Emerging Market Equity strategy update by Nenad Dinic (Equity Strategy)09:31 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending January 28th, 2023... what's happening with inflation, a new surge in foreclosures, and the affordability of renting versus buying.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week. The latest report on the cost of goods and services shows that inflation is cooling off. The PCE index is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation and it shows a tiny .1% increase for December. That reduces the annual rate from 5.5% to 5%. When you eliminate the cost of food and gas, the monthly increase was .3% with an annual rate that's down from 4.7% to 4.4%. PCE stands for Personal Consumption Expenditures. (1)   We also have a new report on the GDP. The government reports that the Gross Domestic Product grew at a solid 2.9% in the fourth quarter of last year. That's after a reading of 3.2% in the third quarter, and two negative quarters in the beginning of 2022. Economists generally believe that we'll see slower economic growth in 2023 due to the Fed's rate hikes. The rate hikes are meant to slow the economy and help bring inflation back down to the 2% level. (2)   The National Association of Home Builders reported on the housing share of the GDP which is lower than normal due to the constrained housing market conditions. The NAHB explains the two housing market components that contribute to the GDP as the residential fixed investment or RFI which includes home building and remodeling. The second component covers housing services like rent, utilities, and the cost that owners would have to pay to rent their own homes. For the fourth quarter the RFI was 4% of the economy while housing services accounted for 11.9%. That's a total of 15.9% of the GDP. Historically, the total is 17 or 18% of the GDP with an average of 5% for the RFI and 12 to 13% for housing services. (3)   Weekly jobless claims are down again, to their lowest level since April. Weekly initial claims dropped another 6,000 to a total of 186,000. Ongoing claims were up 20,000 to a total of 1.68 million. Several companies have announced layoffs but that hasn't had an obvious impact yet on jobless claims. (4)   New home sales were slightly higher in December. The Commerce Department says they were up 2.3% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 616,000. Year-over-year, they are down 26.6%. That hit a peak of 1.04 million in August of 2020. (5)    Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates were down a little more last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was down 2 basis points to 6.13%. 15 year loans were down 11 points to 5.17%. (6)   In other news making headlines...   Foreclosure Rate Doubles   Foreclosure rates are rising once again, but have not returned to pre-pandemic levels. ATTOM Data says they more than doubled in 2022 compared to 2021, with a 115% increase. In 2022, there were foreclosure filings on .23% of all housing units. In 2021, foreclosure filings accounted for just .11% Back in 2019, before the pandemic, they accounted for .36% of all properties. (7)   ATTOM's Rick Sharga says: “Government and mortgage industry efforts during the pandemic, coupled with a strong economy, have helped prevent millions of unnecessary foreclosures.”   States with the highest number of foreclosure starts last year include California, Texas, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio. Foreclosures hit a peak at the height of the housing crisis in 2009 and 2010. Back then, almost 2-and-a-quarter percent of all homes went into foreclosure.   Renting Now Cheaper than Owning in Most Areas   Research from ATTOM Data also shows that renting is now more affordable than owning in 95% of the places where most people live. That's a complete reversal from last year when it was more affordable to own your own home in 60% of the markets that were analyzed. (8)   Rick Sharga commented on the change in affordability saying “What a difference a year makes.” The study was based on the average three-bedroom rent compared to owning a similar sized home.   The only place where it was more affordable to buy than to rent was in Cook County near Chicago. Homeowners in that area typically pay 40% of their paycheck for housing while renters pay 38%.   If you'd like to learn more about investing in today's rental housing market, check out our virtual live event on February 11th. It's an all-day event featuring ten property teams in 11 markets and one commercial broker. You can find out more by joining RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com and registering for the event. If you miss it, we will have some of the sessions available on the RealWealth website for a replay. But if you want to see all of it, you'll need to attend.   That's it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-inflation-rate-slows-again-to-15-month-low-pce-shows-11674826498?mod=economy-politics   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-nasdaq-set-to-lead-after-tesla-results-impress/card/u-s-gdp-grew-faster-than-expected-in-final-quarter-of-2023-but-don-t-expect-a-repeat-SXstKUC8fTFH4HHAkr3h   3 - https://eyeonhousing.org/2023/01/housing-share-of-gdp-lower-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2022/   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-to-lowest-level-since-april-11674740614?mod=economy-politics   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-to-lowest-level-since-april-11674740614?mod=economy-politics   6 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   7 - https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/foreclosures/attom-year-end-2022-u-s-foreclosure-market-report/   8 - https://www.scotsmanguide.com/browse/content/where-most-people-live-renting-is-now-more-affordable-than-owning

Personal Consumption Expenditures The Personal Consumption Expenditures index (PCE) for December came in with an annual growth rate of 5.0%. This is down from the November level of 5.5%. Looking at the Core PCE, which strips out energy and food and is the indicator, the Fed closely monitors the inflation number looks even better with an annual growth rate of 4.4%. I've heard people continue to use the CPI and say that inflation is running at more than 3 times the Fed's 2.0% target. That is extremely misleading as the Core PCE is not nearly as high as the CPI. Overall, we still have work to do on inflation, but it is still decelerating at a good rate and I'm optimistic it will continue to improve as we progress towards the end of 2023. My projection is still that we will see one maybe two quarter point hikes from the Fed and then that rate would be maintained through the rest of the year. I do not see any rate cuts this year from the Fed as I believe the economy will be better than many fear. Tesla's Reported Earnings Tesla reported earnings and they did very well. This sent the stock up as much as around 11% in trading. I have been against Tesla for years not because it's a bad company but because it was too richly valued. That is now changing, the earnings for December 2024 stand at $5.79 with a price of the stock around $150 that gives a forward PE of 25.9. That's not great, but not as terrible as in the past. When the stock was at the low of $102 that would've been a forward PE of 17.6, much more reasonable. I'm not saying that Tesla is a buy, it still has more to drop or needs to see a larger increase in earnings for it to be considered a value. It is getting close, maybe in a year or two it could become a buy? Home Price Affordability Even with the recent declines in home prices, there is still a major affordability problem. In fact, looking at an affordability index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows we are still out of line with pre-pandemic levels. The index is based on home prices, median family incomes and mortgage rates. Over the 12 months prior to Covid the index averaged 162 and the current estimate for January is a level of 106. The lower the number means the higher the problem is for affordability. There are a few ways the number could get back to the pre-pandemic level of 162. First, the average mortgage rate would need to fall to about 2.6%. Next, family incomes would need to increase by about 50%. Finally, prices for homes would need to fall by about another third. The most likely case is a combination of all 3 factors, but unfortunately, I don't see rates coming anywhere close to the 2.6% level nor do I see incomes spiking close to 50%. Therefore, I believe there is still more downside for home prices ahead. Debt Ceiling If you've been wondering why the yield on the 10-year treasury has been dropping it is because they have stopped issuing notes since we hit the limit. We just hit the debt ceiling, but anticipation of hitting that mark put a lot of downward pressure on the yield as demand and purchases of 10-year treasuries increased in anticipation of the debt ceiling. Once the limit is increased, then the government can go back to issuing more 10-year treasuries, and I believe the yield will increase. Layoffs and Over-Hiring You have heard about some major tech companies making big layoffs of 10,000 maybe 20,000 people and think, "oh my gosh this is huge." But if we go back just a few years to 2019, you will see that some companies may have over-hired. For instance, Meta-platforms back in 2019 had 44,942 employees. Now with data available for the 3rd quarter of 2022, the total headcount was at 87,314. That's an increase of 42,372 employees or over 94% in just a few years. Alphabet also over-hired with 2019 employees equaling 118,899 and as of the third quarter last year they increased their headcount by 67,882 to 186,779. The worst company with overconfidence in future growth would have to go to Amazon which had a 2019 headcount of 798,000 employees. That ballooned almost 100% to 1,544,000 employees, an increase of 746,000 employees. You may hear about more layoffs in 2023 for some tech companies, but keep in mind the 2019 numbers and realize that some companies let their hiring policies get out of control. Stock-Based Compensation Companies that use stock-based compensation when their stocks were rising made both employers and the employees happy. But what happens when the stock goes in reverse? No one is happy and shareholders lose the most. As a stock declines in value employees want more shares to equal what they received before, and employers need to keep the game going. They will issue more shares, but what that does is dilute future earnings even more. Be careful of investing in companies that excessively use stock-based compensation, the stocks could be flat for many years. Two companies that come to mind are Snap and Roku. Federal Reserve You may not know it, but the Federal Reserve has the ability to actually make profits. In 2021 the Fed earned $107.9 billion in profits but in 2022 that profit was cut in half to $58.4 billion because of rising interest rates. You may be wondering where the profits go. The Fed does not get to keep them. They send all their profits to the US treasury and if the Fed loses money, they create an IOU on the balance sheet. This is known as a deferred asset. They will carry that IOU until they once again make profits, and they will pay that IOU down before sending any more profits to the treasury. Declining Attention Span In a recent research study at the University of California Irvine, it was no surprise to learn that the attention span of both younger and older people has declined over the years. Back in 2004 people on average spent 150 seconds on a screen before switching. It has now declined to 47 seconds, a drop of over 2/3. The research also found that on average, people check their inboxes 77 times a day. I was surprised by that number, but it is on average. To restore our attention spans, people need to be more disciplined about when they check emails and use social media. If you only check it during certain times of the day, your attention span will increase, and your stress level will decrease. Try it. Let me know what you think. Working From Home Some employees working from home are still living in the Covid years thinking that they control the narrative of working from home. I remember people saying this was the new way of doing business. I said no it will go back to people going into the office. Those employees who are saying they would rather quit than go back in the office, be prepared to be unemployed. Those employees forget that if it's so easy to work from home and not go in the office, then the employer can find someone overseas or in other places who will do the same job remotely for perhaps half the pay, and no health insurance or 401(k). I think over time we will see more employees heading back into the office because like it or not, a business is in business to make a profit not provide a social service. Offshore Oil Drilling There's some good news long-term on the energy front. As of December 2022, approximately 600 rigs worldwide are available to lease for offshore oil drilling. It has been estimated that approximately 90% are working or under contract to work in the future. Looking back just five years, that number was only 63%. Another positive, based on demand, is contractors are now receiving about $400,000 a day for leasing their drill ships, that is nearly double what it was just two years ago. This is a big positive to the supply side of the equation for oil. Q4 GDP The headline advanced reading for Q4 GDP came in at 2.9%, which surpassed the estimate of 2.8%. Consumption (adjusted for inflation) was up 2.1% and 1.42% added to the headline number as goods were up 1.1% and services were up 2.6%. Residential investment was hit extremely hard as it was down 26.7% in the quarter and subtracted 1.29% from the headline number. Overall, private investment had a benefit of 0.27% to the headline number as the change in private inventories added 1.46% and nonresidential had a small positive contribution of 0.09% which was mainly due to an increase of 5.3% for intellectual property products. Net exports added 0.56% to the headline number as imports fell 4.6% in Q4, but exports fell at a lower rate of 1.3%. Government consumption added 0.64% to the headline number as spending grew 3.7%. A large portion of this came from federal non-defense spending which jumped 11.2% in the quarter. Overall, the report was lackluster and points to an economy that is decelerating. Chevron Buyback Chevron announced a $75 billion stock buyback to the shareholders. I can already hear the government and others saying how dare they do that; they should take that money and invest it in oil production to reduce prices. First off, shareholders take the risk of investing and should be rewarded when a company does well. The job of the CEO is to produce a good product and have returns for the owners of the company who are the shareholders. Why would a company invest billions of dollars into producing oil when down the road we know demand will be lower as we see more electric vehicles on the road not using oil. This is the best strategy for a company with a long-term time horizon. Remember, the government did add this year a 1% excise tax on stock buybacks which means the government will receive $750 million in extra tax from Chevron as it completes this buyback. Will that money go to something productive? Or will the government squander it away and waste it as usual on some silly programs. If you don't like the company don't buy their stock or gasoline. Peloton I keep seeing the commercial for Peloton that 92% of owners are still active on their Peloton. As the stock has now fallen to around $12-$13/share from its all-time highs of around $170/share, I'm curious how many people are still using their Peloton? I'd still rate this stock a sell and would like to see it become a profitable company before investing. S&P 500 One of my major concerns for the S&P 500 index remains its valuation. At the end of 2022 the index was trading at a Forward P/E of 16.65. That was down from the recent highs of over 22x, but I would still not consider it an attractive valuation as the 25-year average has been 16.82. There are two ways that the S&P could grow. There could be earnings growth, or the multiple could expand. For earnings growth I have seen estimates of around 4-5% earnings growth, which I think could still be optimistic. This means if the multiple were to remain constant, the S&P would grow around 4-5% this year. As for the multiple expansion, with interest rates rising and slowing growth I do not see the case to have the multiple rise. This is why I continue to believe the right stocks will outperform the market in 2023.   Harrison : "Shared Equity Agreements"

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, out this morning indicates that inflation tempered last month. FHN Financial Chief Economist Christopher Low helps us look behind the numbers. And, China’s holdings of developing countries’ debt is beginning to play into the wider U.S.-China relationship, says David Dollar of the Brookings Institution.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, out this morning indicates that inflation tempered last month. FHN Financial Chief Economist Christopher Low helps us look behind the numbers. And, China’s holdings of developing countries’ debt is beginning to play into the wider U.S.-China relationship, says David Dollar of the Brookings Institution.

Jobs Job gains showed a nice increase of 263,000 in November which easily topped the estimate of 200,000. Leisure and hospitality remained a major leader with job gains totaling 88,000 in the month as the sector continues to battle back from Covid. This sector still remains 5.8% or 980,000 jobs below February 2020. Retail trade and transportation and warehousing were the standout losers in the report as both sectors saw a decline in payrolls. Retail trade fell by about 30,000 jobs as general merchandise stores saw employment decline by 32,000 jobs and electronics and appliance stores saw employment decline by 4,000 jobs in the month. Transportation and warehousing had a decline of 15,000 jobs in the month. I was somewhat surprised to see these two sectors decline considering it's the holiday season, but the excess inventory levels could be weighing on employment as retailers could be trying to focus on expenses including labor and transportation and warehousing. The item I believe weighed most on the markets was the increase of 5.1% in average hourly earnings. It surpassed the estimate of 4.6% and it could give the Fed more ammo to continue on its rate hiking path as it tries to bring down inflation. I do believe this should not be a major concern for the Fed because, like inflation overall, I think wage gains will begin to slow to a more normalized level next year as the job market decelerates.   Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) The PCE, which is known as the Personal Consumption Expenditures, came out at 6% for October over the last 12 months. As we had predicted months ago these inflation indexes would show signs of easing. This is why there has been some recovery in equities. The PCE is what the Federal Reserve looks at in regard to interest rates so there probably will not be any surprises going forward. We continue to believe that inflation will slow down and if you've been out of the market and in particular the right equities since summer you have missed out. There are still some opportunities to get back in for quality long-term investors but sitting on the sidelines for the next 6 to 12 months based on current data will be a mistake.   National Retail Federation (NRF) You've probably heard that this is not going to be a great Christmas for retail. But as we say many times in our posts and other commentary, it's important to understand what is being said and how it is being said. The estimate by the National Retail Federation (NRF) for holiday sales is expected to be between $942 billion to $960 billion, an increase of 6-8% over the $889 billion in 2021. This was a 13.5% increase over 2020. If we look back to 2019 when the economy was pretty strong, and everyone felt good, the NRF said holiday sales were $716 billion. Comparing the low end for 2022 of $942 billion, that's a 31.6% increase from 2019. It does appear holiday shopping has gotten off to a good start considering the record of 196.7 million shoppers from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday. This topped last year's level of 176 million shoppers and easily surpassed the NRF's estimate for 166.3 million shoppers. I don't know about you, but I think those are pretty good numbers, all things being equal.   SEC The SEC, also known as the Securities Exchange Commission, had a busy fiscal year, which ended September 30th. Their penalties were up 67% from the previous year, hitting an all-time record of $6.4 billion. I wonder where that money will go, or will it get lost in the tangled web of government administration? The money is supposed to go to a fund that either protects investors, a fund that refunds investors who lost money, or the third option, the US treasury general fund.   Harrison – “Change for charitable donations this year”

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.After a short and quiet Thanksgiving week, economic data releases return in full force with a number of metrics set to be shared this week. GDP and November employment data will likely dominate the headlines, but the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, will be announced.Tune in to find out more information on multifamily dynamics during the week of November 27th.

Welcome to today's episode where Jason is joined by his faithful companion Coco, as he steers clear of the ‘thought police,' talking about the Apartment List Survey happening during the nation's midterm ‘erection' and how the housing market has become a political issue for most Americans! Jason also talks about the CPI, which he calls the ‘CP LIE' vis a vis the PCE or the Personal Consumption Expenditures. Moreover, a shocking, tectonic shift in the renter market has taken place, something he predicted back in March of 2022!  He is then interviewed by James Schlimmer and John Bowens of the Building Equity Podcast where Jason talks about the current state of the economy and the housing market and how it stacks up to other commodities by using his Hartman Comparison Index. And you can also buy your tickets NOW to the Empowered Investor LIVE event this January 27-29 happening at a beautiful resort in Scottsdale, Arizona! Early bird rates are going fast. You can also get HUGE discounts on this and all of Jason's events when you become an Empowered Investor Pro member. Just go to EmpoweredInvestor.com. Once a member you can also join their MONTHLY Zoom meeting happening every first Tuesday of the month. So sign up and be part of a community of like-minded investors when you become an Empowered Investor Pro member! Key Takeaways: 0:00 Welcome to Episode 1915! Check out that beautiful animal behind Jason! 1:48 The Erection: Avoiding the ‘Thought Police' 2:33 Apartment List Survey: Rising Housing Costs A More Salient Political Issue for Renters 9:31 Institutional Investors are still a drop in the bucket 11:40 The standard measure of inflation: The CP Lie 13:07 PCE- Personal Consumption Expenditures 15:55 Renters' gradual shift toward suburban and rural areas-Just as Jason predicted back in March 2022 18:00 Empowered Investor Pro Community Monthly Zoom Meeting and the LIVE event in Scottsdale, Arizona Jason Interviewed by James Schlimmer and John Bowens, Building Equity Podcast 19:39 The current state of the US housing market 20:42 Historically, housing inventory is very, very low and cheap mortgages are not helping 22:48 Mistakes new investors make 26:06 What is your measuring stick? 26:43 Tale of 3 markets; sampling Memphis, Indianapolis & Los Angeles 29:03 A skewed housing market data 30:33 The Hartman Comparison Index 31:03 Median home price versus the price of gold 33:20 Median home price versus the price of oil 35:12 Rice and the S&P 36:15 Coaching session with Jason and the Empowered Investor LIVE event in Scottsdale, Arizona 37:25 After a catastrophe like a hurricane, there is MORE demand for housing Featured: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pce.asp   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com  

Hello everyone, it's Bill Thompson – T Bill. Some of the things covered on today's session include: An introduction to Stock Trading Order Types The earnings reports from Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Apple, and Amazon Avatar 2's massive marketing campaign, the highest in movie history The upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report and Federal Reserve policy meeting The controversy over the financing of the Buffalo Bill's new stadium

1) Terrible pictures emerge from Eastern Kentucky flood area. 2) Personal Consumption Expenditures a primary Federal Reserve Inflation gage rose 6.8% last month. It was the biggest 12 month rise since 1982. 2A) Excluding Food and Energy, the PCE increased 4.8% up .1% from May but off the high of 5.3% hit in February. 2B) Production constraints will keep oil prices high for the foreseeable future. 2C) Inflation is a much bigger concern for the Fed versus Recession 3) Senator Sinema has not responded yet to the Manchin-Schumer bill. She previously was against taxing carried interest. Reports indicate she does not want that in the bill and she wants to give Republicans time for Amendments. The Chamber of Commerce and numerous other organizations speak out AGAINST the bill. Inflation Reduction Act - The name is a joke, no they are serious. 4) Gallup Poll has Biden at 38% an All time low down from 41% one month ago. 4A) Rasmussen poll provides better news with Biden at 42%. 4B) The Generic Ballot has Republicans up by 1% 5) The Misery Index which combines Inflation and Unemployment is forecasting a 30-40 seat House Pick up by Republicans. We are more cautious in the range of 15-20. 5A) 45% of Americans blame Biden for Inflation 6) Both Biden and Trump are at 35% Approval on whether they should run in 2024. 7) A veteran Chicago prosecutor resigned citing zero confidence in District Attorney Kim Fox while number of arrests in the city are at a 20 year low, despite the rise in crime. 48 shot over the weekend through Saturday. 8) Biden has a rebound of Covid with no symptoms. Will isolate for 5 days. 9) Pelosi trip to include Taiwan visit on Tuesday. 10) Primaries in Arizona, Missouri, Washington and Michigan tomorrow. 11) Basketball legend Bill Russell dies at 88.

In today's DriveTime, we discuss House Ag Chairman's new cattle legislation, rural broadband and development, and the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures price index. 

This episode is also available as a blog post: http://confoundedinterest.net/2022/06/30/slowing-us-personal-consumption-expenditures-drop-to-0-2-mom-in-may-as-pce-deflator-hits-6-3-yoy-us-mortgage-rates-slip-to-5-7-the-first-decline-in-four-weeks/

The term personal consumption expenditures refer to a measure of imputed household expenditures defined for a period of time. Personal income and the PCE Price Index reading are released monthly in the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays report. Personal consumption expenditures support the reporting of the PCE Price Index, which measures price changes in consumer goods and services exchanged in the U.S. economy.The PCE Price Index became the primary inflation index in 2012 used by the U.S. Federal Reserve when making monetary policy decisions.1 It is comparable to the Consumer Price Index which also focuses on consumer prices. Other measures of inflation also tracked by economists can include the Producer Price Index and the Gross Domestic Product Price Index.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index is the other significant indicator of inflation, and it carries a few differences from the Consumer Price Index. As the name infers, the PCE takes natural changes of habit into account. Concerns over omicron have led to several big-name companies bailing out of the Consumer Electronics Show, one of tech’s biggest events. Susan Schmidt of Aviva Investors is here to talk about the markets with us.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index is the other significant indicator of inflation, and it carries a few differences from the Consumer Price Index. As the name infers, the PCE takes natural changes of habit into account. Concerns over omicron have led to several big-name companies bailing out of the Consumer Electronics Show, one of tech’s biggest events. Susan Schmidt of Aviva Investors is here to talk about the markets with us.

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending October 16th, 2021… more home loans for the self-employed borrowers, a surge in jumbo loans, and a rise in closing costs.Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.Economic NewsWe begin with economic news from this past week. Inflation ticked higher again. The government reports a .4% increase for September, mostly due to higher prices for food, gas, and rent. That raises the yearly rate of inflation from 5.3% to 5.4% which is more than double what the Federal Reserve considers “ideal.” But the Fed pays more attention to the PCE or Personal Consumption Expenditures index which is lower but still more than double the Fed's target. Economists, along with the Fed, say that means prices will probably remain high into next year. (1)Well-known stock investor Cathie Woods has her own theory on inflation. She's the owner of Ark Invest and a collection of stock funds that lean toward more innovative tech companies and start-ups. She told CNBC that the current migration from expensive cities will help keep inflation in check. She says: “The exodus, or the great migration, is from very high-rent areas of the world to much lower rents.” She is moving her own company from New York to St. Petersburg, Florida, to take advantage of a lower cost of living. (2)Consumers don't seem to be that concerned about high prices. U.S. retail sales rose .7% last month. That's after a big gain in August. Economists say Americans have plenty of money to spend from their pandemic savings, and a job market that is paying higher wages. One thing holding them back is a short supply of goods like cars and consumer electronics because of supply chain issues. (3)Initial jobless claims dipped below 300,000 for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic. The government reports just 293,000 new state claims. Ongoing claims also dropped to a pandemic low of 2.59 million. The total number of people collecting benefits from eight state and federal programs is 3.65 million. That's after more than 11 million people dropped off the list last month due to the expiration of an emergency federal program. (4) The “quit rate” jumped higher in August, to the highest it's ever been since the government started tracking the number of people leaving their jobs in 2000. This so-called quit rate was up almost 3% to 4.27 million private-sector employees. That's about double what it was during the early part of the pandemic. This recent spike coincides with a spike in coronavirus cases tied to the delta variant. (5) Mortgage RatesLet's check on mortgage rates. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 6 basis points to 3.05%. The 15-year was up 7 points to 2.3%. (6)In other news making headlines...Credit More Available for Self-Employed The credit market is opening up a bit, making it easier to get a home loan. The Mortgage Bankers Association's Credit Availability Index rose 1.5% in September, with most of the growth going to self-employed borrowers. That's great for real estate professionals who are often self-employed. (7)The index benchmark is 100, and the current reading is 125.6. It's the highest it's been since May. The MBA's Joel Kan says: “But, even with increases in seven out of nine months thus far in 2021, total credit availability is still around 30% less than it was in February 2020” which is right before the pandemic struck.Jumbo Loans Surge Due to High Home Prices Lenders are also handing out more jumbo loans because of high home prices. Researchers at Bank of America said in a weekly report that loan originations for jumbo loans are rising to levels we haven't seen since before the 2008 financial crisis. (8)The current limit for a conforming loan is about $548,000. Anything above that is a jumbo loan, although high-priced areas like New York City and San Francisco have higher limits. Several lenders have already announced higher conforming loan limits up to $625,000 for next year.Buyers Paying Higher Closing CostsHigh home prices are also driving closing costs higher. Residential real estate data firm ClosingCorp said the national average for single-family properties was $6,837 during the first half of this year. That includes taxes, and represents a 12.3% year-over-year increase. Without taxes, the national average is up 10.5% to $3,836. For refinancing loans, closing costs are up about 5% to around $2,400. (8)ClosingCorp's CEO, Bob Jennings, says that even though closing costs are higher, they are not going up as fast as home prices, because lenders are holding those costs down. He says: “Although the average home price increased by nearly $45,000, the closing cost, excluding taxes, on property only increased by $400.”That's it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources, including experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.Links:1 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-prices-rise-at-5-4-yearly-pace-in-september-and-stay-at-30-year-high-11634129045?mod=inflation2 -https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/cathie-wood-inflation-exodus-expensive-cities-ark-invest-2021-103 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-retail-sales-rise-sharply-again-but-high-inflation-also-means-goods-cost-more-11634302108?mod=economy-politics4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-sink-to-new-pandemic-low-and-fall-below-300-000-for-first-time-in-a-year-and-a-half-11634215581?mod=economic-report5 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i-quit-a-record-number-of-u-s-workers-are-telling-their-bosses-11634051980?mod=economic-report6 -http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/7 -https://www.housingwire.com/articles/lenders-are-courting-self-employed-borrowers-again/8 -https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2021/10/13/rising-home-prices-lead-to-105-hike-in-closing-costs

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending June 26th, 2021... mortgage rates are back above 3%, forbearance programs are dwindling, and California renters could get their back rent paid off.Economic NewsWe begin with economic news from this past week. The latest report on inflation shows the PCE index rose 3.4% in May, compared to a year earlier. (1) That's the largest annual increase in almost 30 years, according to CNBC. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index tracks changes in the price of goods and services. It's considered a more wide-reaching index than the Consumer Price Index, and is the one used by the Federal Reserve. The weekly unemployment report shows the job recovery may be hitting a speed bump. (2) The Labor Department says that initial jobless claims only fell 7,000, and are still above 400,000. MarketWatch says that Wall Street economists had expected a much bigger drop in new claims. The total number of people collecting unemployment from state and federal programs was 14.8 million as of June 5th.Consumer spending has settled down from a reopening surge in recent months. The government says it was about the same last month as it was in April, but spending is still higher than it was before the pandemic. MarketWatch says it's increasing enough to “keep the economy humming.” (3) Turning now to the housing market, economists say that new home sales were disappointing. The Census Bureau says they were down 5.9% in May compared to the month before. (4) But even with that drop, they are still up more than 9% from May of 2020. Realtor.com says about 20% of builders are putting limits on production because of high lumber and material prices and a labor shortage. Lumber prices have started to come down, however. (5) Existing home sales are also down. They were down .9% in May, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.8 million. But they are still 45% higher than they were a year ago. (6) Although economists say the pandemic-inspired home buying frenzy may be cooling off, they don't expect a huge drop in demand. Michael Gregory of BMO Capital Markets told MarketWatch that “demand should remain warm” because of low mortgage rates, millennials moving ahead with home buying plans, and pandemic savings that are helping people come up with a down payment.Mortgage RatesMortgage rates moved back above the 3% mark. Freddie Mac says the annual 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up 9 basis points, to 3.02%. The 15-year moved up 10 basis points to 2.34%. Freddie Mac economists expecte that rates will continue to move higher, but gradually. (7)In other news making headlines...Housing Affordability FallsHousing affordability has fallen in all four regions of the U.S. thanks to higher home prices. Realtor.com says the median family income has dropped about $7,000 to $88,500 while mortgage payments have risen. NAR's index shows they have gone up 16% year-over-year. The average was $1020 in April of 2020 and it's now $1,184. (8)As a percent of income, mortgage payments accounted for 13.7% of a family's paycheck last year. This year, they account for about 16%. NAR's research data specialist, Michael Hyman, says the combination of higher prices and smaller paychecks “is not a good combination for a potential home buyer.”Forbearances Dip Below 4%Some homeowners are getting their mortgage payments back on track. The Mortgage Bankers Association says that forbearances have dipped below 4% for the first time in a year. (9)According to an association survey, they fell 11 basis points last week, to 3.93%. The report also shows that new forbearance requests have dropped to an extremely low level. California Extends Eviction Ban But Will Pay Back RentCalifornia landlords may appreciate this next story. Governor Gavin Newsom and lawmakers announced a plan to extend the moratorium through September, and pay 100% of all back rent for eligible tenants. (10)The current moratorium is set to expire on June 30th, which is the same day that Federal eviction protections expire. The agreement between Newsom and the leaders of the state Senate and Assembly, could be approved as early as Monday, June 28th.Senate President Pro Tem, Toni Atkins, says the goal is to avoid mass evictions. Atkins said in a statement that the “housing situation in California was a crisis before COVID, and the pandemic has only made it worse.”New Record for Digital Real EstateReal estate that only exists in cyberspace is gaining ground as an investment option, although it's considered to be very speculative and volatile. Realtor.com reports that a chunk of digital real estate in the online world of Decentraland sold for almost a million dollars. This kind of real estate is bought and sold with a type of cryptocurrency called nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, and is based on a blockchain. In a news release for an NFT Summit that took place recently, it says: “From music to sports, real estate to digital fashion, art to collectibles: non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are transcending industries and transforming economies. They've led to an explosion of disruptive technologies, the digitization of culture and assets, and the creation of an immersive internet.The piece of digital real estate that was purchased consisted of 259 units of land. That's equal to 16 square acres. Earlier this month, another large purchase was made for digital real estate in a virtual world, or “metaverse,” called The Sandbox. That piece of cyberspace was bought for $650,000. You might wonder what people do with this real estate. Realtor.com explains that “users purchase land to show off their digital art collections, walk around with friends, visit buildings, or to attend events.” Okay, wrap your head around that one! You'll find links to our sources in the show notes at NewsForInvestors.comClick here to join RealWealth now, it's free and only takes a minute!Links:1 - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/25/us-bonds-10-year-treasury-yield-rises-ahead-of-inflation-data.html2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-unemployment-claims-barely-fall-and-disappoint-for-second-week-in-a-row-11624539532?mod=economy-politics3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-spending-barely-rises-in-may-as-federal-stimulus-money-dries-up-11624625957?mod=economy-politics4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-home-sales-fall-short-of-expectations-but-dropping-lumber-prices-could-provide-breathing-room-11624457962?mod=economic-report5 - https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2021/06/24/new-home-sales-drop-to-lowest-pace-of-year6 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/existing-home-sales-slump-as-momentum-slows-in-the-housing-market-11624370746?mod=economy-politics7 - http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/8 - https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2021/06/21/mortgage-payments-are-increasing-despite-low-rates9 - https://www.housingwire.com/articles/for-the-first-time-in-a-year-forbearances-dip-below-4/10 - https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-06-25/newsom-legislative-leaders-agree-on-extending-eviction-protections-paying-back-rent11 - https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2021/06/23/even-virtual-real-estate-is-setting-price-records12 - https://www.builderonline.com/building/habitat-for-humanity-builds-its-first-3d-printed-home-in-tempe_o13 - https://www.wsj.com/articles/blackstone-bets-6-billion-on-buying-and-renting-homes-11624359600?mod=hp_lead_pos314 - https://abc7.com/10816581/