On Point

There's hope emerging that our economy is turning a corner. Is that possible with so much bad news still around? As always, whether your glass is half-full or half-empty depends on where you're looking, and what you're paying most attention to. We should expect more negative headlines in the months ahead, starting with the upcoming GDP report. However, keep in mind that some indicators tell us more about what's in the rear view mirror than what's ahead.

France will be in the spotlight early in the week, with a confidence vote being held on Monday in the National Assembly. The key event of the economic calendar will be the US CPI report for August, due Thursday, ahead of the Federal Reserve decision next week. The central banking highlight will be the ECB interest rate decision, where markets expect a hold.

New Zealand‘s long awaited economic recovery has been delayed, rather than cancelled. Most of us fix our mortgages, so when the OCR falls or banks reduce mortgage rates we don't benefit from those lower costs right away. A steady stream of borrowers moving onto lower rates will hopefully boost activity and spending, putting businesses in a stronger position and giving them the confidence to grow, hire and invest.

It's a holiday-shortened week in the US with markets closed for Labor Day on Monday, although the economy will be in focus this week with the August jobs report, ISM indices and the Fed's Beige Book all due for release. We'll also be watching for any political fallout after President Trump's tariffs were ruled illegal by a federal appeals court last week!

Three US stocks are now as big as four entire sectors. That's not hyperbole, it's the reality of today's market. NVIDIA, Microsoft and Apple together make up more than one-fifth of the S&P 500. To put that in perspective, it's more than the combined weight of the four traditional defensive sectors of the market - healthcare, consumer staples, utilities and real estate. What does this mean for investors, and should it concern us?

The reporting season continues across with Chorus, EBOS Group, Meridian Energy, Summerset and Port of Tauranga all due to report in New Zealand, while we'll hear from Coles, Woolworths, South32 and Wesfarmers across the Tasman. Internationally, NVIDIA will be in focus when its latest earnings are announced on Wednesday in the US.

World shares have hit fresh record highs in recent days, defying forecasts for a pullback and looking much stronger than many predicted a few months ago. The MSCI All Country World Index is up 13.2 per cent in 2025, and is more than 40 per cent higher over the past two years. Let's run through some of the reasons why investors are in such good spirits, as we ponder whether this optimism is justified.

There's plenty to monitor this week with the local highlight expected to be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision on Wednesday afternoon. Another cut to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is widely expected, and markets will be focused on the latest forecasts and projections for clues as to how low the OCR goes from there.

The local reporting season is heating up, and we're all hopeful it'll suggest the long-awaited economic recovery is in sight. The coming few weeks will reveal whether our listed corporate sector is ready to embrace recovery, or if we'll be left cautiously waiting for another six months or more. For under-pressure management teams, frustrated investors and nervous politicians alike, the stakes are rising after an extended period of underperformance.

Tariff headlines will remain a focal point this week, with the pause between the US and China due to to expire on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump also plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday in Alaska, as he looks to broker a ceasefire agreement and bring an end to the war in Ukraine.

Despite some short-term pricing pressures, inflation is largely under control and expected to remain within the Reserve Bank's target band of 1-3%. However, even if we can declare inflation beaten the effects of the cost-of-living crisis still linger. The pace of the increases may have slowed right now, but we're stuck with the big rises of the last few years.

Trade and tariffs will in focus again this week, with the new US tariffs set to take effect on Thursday. Here in New Zealand, the highlight will be the June quarter labour force report, which is out on Wednesday. Economists expect the unemployment rate to increase to 5.3%, the highest since 2016. This is likely to seal the deal on another cut to the Official Cash Rate later this month.

Should I pay off the mortgage faster, or use that extra cash to invest? This is always a common question, and it's especially relevant today. While mortgage rates are way down from the highs of 2023, borrowing costs are still above the average of the past 15 years. Let's crunch a few numbers and run through some pros and cons.

A massive week looms for investors. Trade negotiations will remain front and centre, with markets particularly focused on developments between the US and the European Union, as well as talks between the US and China. Outside of trade, there is no shortage of economic releases and central bank decisions for investors to digest, including the US jobs report and a Fed decision. If that's not enough to keep you busy, there are more than 150 S&P 500 companies due to report earnings, including Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple!

The country has dragged itself out of recession and mortgage rates have been falling for 18 months. However, against conventional wisdom the long-awaited housing market recovery still hasn't arrived. For the first time in a long while, the housing market is working more for buyers than sellers, and that rebalancing might be exactly what we need.

Here in New Zealand, the June quarter inflation report will be the key release this week. Markets are bracing for an increase in the annual inflation rate to 2.8%, the highest in 12 months and above Reserve Bank expectations. Elsewhere, the international earnings season will ramp up after a good start, with more than 100 S&P 500 companies set to announce results over the coming days.

The RBNZ isn't done with cutting rates just yet, but an important insight borrowers should take from last week's "no change" decision is that we are nearing the end of the easing cycle. The upshot here is that most of the downward move in mortgage rates is behind us. I wouldn't say this is quite “as good as it gets” for borrowers, but we're much closer to that point than many think.

Markets will watching for further news on tariffs out of the White House this week, and keeping an eye on some key growth indicators out of China. Earnings will also be in focus, as the international reporting season ramps up. With many indices - including the S&P 500 in the US - sitting close to record highs this could be a crucial test for markets.

AI could prove an extremely useful tool, making workers more productive and unlocking exciting innovations. While we've seen technological changes in the past, AI adoption curves could be steeper than those of other major shifts in recent decades. The long-term improvement in living standards and productivity growth will come at a short-term cost, and policymakers will need to think carefully about how to provide support. For investors, it's a theme we can't afford to ignore.

A crucial week looms, both internationally as well as here in New Zealand. Markets are eagerly awaiting the end of the President Trump's 90-day reciprocal tariff extension, which expires on July 9th. Closer to home, all eyes will be on the RBNZ, to see if it leaves the OCR unchanged as expected, or surprises markets with another cut.

Every once in a while, you hear talk of how much worse off you'd be if you'd missed the ten best days in a given period. It usually happens during a rough patch, in the hope it'll calm investors down and ensure they stay the course rather than panicking and selling at precisely the wrong time. The numbers are always compelling, and it's admirable advice. However, there's one important point that is often missed.

Since 1900, US shares have returned 9.8 per cent per annum (including dividends). That's a recipe for wealth generation and an excellent way to ensure your capital grows more than inflation (which has been just below three per cent per annum over that period). But here's the thing, the market rarely delivers an annual return anywhere near that long-term average. It's usually some way above or below that!

With the midpoint of the year upon us, it's been a mixed bag (and at times, a rollercoaster) for investors. Somewhat ominously, it feels like 2025 is just getting started. We're at a crucial crossroads and there's no shortage of key events looming in the months ahead.

Looking ahead, events in the Middle East will remain a focal point as investors watch for signs of further escalation. Central banks will also be in the spotlight, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled to testify to Congress, following last week's Fed decision. The economic highlights this week will be flash PMIs for June, which are out on Monday and will provide an important pulse check of the global growth picture.

There have been increasing concerns over “stagflation” risks in recent months, as economic indicators weaken and tariffs threaten to push inflation back up. The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran - as well as its impact on oil prices - has added further risk to the outlook. What can we learn from periods like the 1970s, and is the threat of stagflation something investors should be worried about?

Looking ahead, events in the Middle East will be a focal point, as investors watch for any further escalation between Israel and Iran. The G7 Leader's Summit takes place in Canada early in the week, ahead of the NATO summit next week. It's also a very big week for central banks, with monetary policy decisions due in the US, UK and Japan. None are expected to adjust policy rates, although the tone and commentary will be important. There's plenty to watch in the coming days here in New Zealand, and the key release will be the March quarter GDP report on Thursday. Markets expect another steady print, and a result above Reserve Bank estimates could ensure the OCR remains on hold at the next meeting.

Analyst reports can be very helpful when gathering information and trying to learn about a company. However, investors should take a more holistic view when choosing which shares to include in (or leave out of) their portfolio, rather than relying heavily on the recommendations and target prices they might see in such reports.

Turning to the week ahead, the key economic release will be the May CPI report in the US, which is due overnight on Wednesday. Here in New Zealand, a steady stream of releases are due over the week including March quarter manufacturing figures, migration, and potentially a fresh housing report from the Real Estate Institute.

The latest UBS Global Family Office Report offers some fascinating insights into how the world's wealthiest families think about risk, time and opportunity. However, it's where they put their money that interests me most. At a very high level, the average asset allocation isn't too dissimilar from that of a managed fund (in the growth category) or an individual investor with a comparable risk profile. There are some key differences though, with the most obvious being the 33 per cent allocation wealthy family offices have to alternative assets.

The last ten days or so have been very eventful. President Trump imposed a 50% tariff on the European Union before delaying it by five weeks, then the US Court of International Trade ruled that many of the tariffs are illegal anyway. That saw the Court of Appeal grant a temporary stay that leaves them in place while the case is considered, and Trump ended the by doubling the tariffs on steel imports! The S&P 500 still managed a healthy 1.9% gain despite all that, and it ended the month of up 6.2%, the strongest monthly gain since November 2023.

We've seen a big change in the perception of US assets in recent months, which has been reflected in falling growth expectations, a more volatile sharemarket and higher US interest rates. However, currency markets are where all these things intersect and the most telling signs might have come from the US dollar. What's next for the world's biggest economy, and how should investors play this?

This week will be an extremely busy one, both internationally as well as here in New Zealand. The latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision will be the main event locally, and while another cut to the Official Cash Rate is widely expected, markets will be interested in any clues about how many more cuts we'll see from here on.

After being down 18.9 per cent from its recent peak, the S&P 500 index in the US has recovered and is now back in positive territory year-to-date. Interestingly, drawdowns of that magnitude aren't nearly as rare as you might think, and nor are the rebounds. Volatility is the rule, rather than the exception. Get used to it.

It was a strong week global sharemarkets, with a 90-day trade truce between the US and China setting the positive tone early on. The S&P 500 in the US surged 5.3%, which saw it storm back into positive territory for the year and finish just 3.0% below its record high from February (having been down 18.9% from those levels at one point!). What do investors need to keep an eye out for next?

After two days of discussions over the weekend, the US and China agreed to a 90-day tariff truce. This was a bigger announcement than markets were expecting, and it substantially diminishes the risk of a full-blown trade war. What does this mean for the outlook, investors and the balance of the year?

This week we'll be watching economic indicators for signs of any impact from the tariff announcements in early April, with US inflation and retail sales of particular interest. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is speaking on Thursday inWashington, D.C. and markets will be monitoring the outcome of trade talks between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China's Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland.

There has been increasing talk of a US recession in recent weeks, with one major global bank suggesting the odds of this are 60 per cent. It's certainly possible if harsh tariffs remain in place, although the outlook could brighten quickly if we see a de-escalation. Which stocks will hold up best in a recession, and what can we learn from previous downturns?

A lot of people are frustrated with US President Donald Trump, but there's one who has a more genuine case than most. That's Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and not just because Trump wanted to fire him!

It's a big week for economic data releases in the US, with the jobs report due on Friday, the ISM manufacturing index and core PCE inflation report ahead of that, as well as the preliminary GDP reading for the March quarter. Here in New Zealand, we'll be watching the latest monthly ANZ Business Outlook survey for any signs of nervousness about the global trade situation, as well as inflation indicators. It'll be a very busy week for global earnings releases, with 180 S&P 500 companies due to report. This will include four of the “Magnificent 7” with Meta and Microsoft reporting on Wednesday, and Amazon and Apple to follow on Thursday. We'll also hear from Coca-Cola, Visa, Caterpillar, CVS Health and Eli Lilly.

It's been a very volatile few weeks for investors, and some markets and asset classes have fallen heavily amidst the uncertainty. All declines are different and it's impossible to say when or where this one ends. However, here are a few suggestions for navigating this one.

The US market ended the week up 5.7%, which saw it finish 12.7% off its February highs, having been down 18.9% at its weakest point and very close to bear market territory. Most other markets finished the week slightly lower, with the local NZX 50 down 1.7%. Despite last week's partial tariff backtrack from the White House, the US 10-year bond yield ended the week at 4.5%, up from just under 4.0% seven days earlier. That was the biggest weekly jump since 2001, and it comes as investors exit US assets in favour of other jurisdictions. The US dollar index fell to its lowest level since July 2023, and the greenback is down 9.0% from where it was in mid-January.

The last several trading days have been extremely volatile for global markets, with US President Donald Trump unveiling a harsher set of tariffs than expected on “Liberation Day”. The S&P 500 index in the US fell 10.5 per cent in the two days following the initial announcement. It's been slightly calmer since then, but investors are still on edge. What have we seen across some of the key asset classes, and where might things be headed from here?

It was an extremely volatile week for global markets, as "Liberation Day" sent investors into a tailspin. Investors will be watching for signs of further tariff retaliation (or negotiation) this week, while US inflation figures will in focus. Another OCR cut its widely expected here in New Zealand, and on the corporate front the quarterly international earnings season kicks off with some of the US banks on Friday.

The March quarter of 2025 is behind us and if it's any guide of things to come, we're in for an eventful year! The quarter was punctuated by policy uncertainty, shaky confidence readings and volatile markets. Which asset classes and markets were up, down or sideways, and what should investors be watching out for over the coming three months?

The focal point of this week will be the details of US reciprocal tariffs, which are scheduled to be implemented on Wednesday (April 2). A day later, 25% tariffs on cars imported into the US will take effect. It is unclear whether the reciprocal tariffs will be broad or targeted, but the prospect of added inflationary pressures and a tariff-induced economic slowdown will keep investors on edge. In terms of global economic releases, highlights will be the US jobs report and ISM indices, while here in New Zealand the latest ANZ Business Outlook survey will take centre stage.

Last week's gross domestic product (GDP) report was comforting, coming in above expectations and pointing to the strongest improvement in 18 months. That was a welcome piece of good news, following a difficult February reporting season littered with cautious comments from management teams. In contrast, business confidence measures have rebounded strongly, which seems out of step with the downbeat tone we're seeing elsewhere. So what gives, and why are we getting mixed messages from some of our key economic indicators?

Global flash PMIs for March will be a focal point early in the week, while PCE inflation will be one of the US highlights. The Conference Board's US consumer confidence index will be of interest on Tuesday too, following a slide in the University of Michigan measure last week. Australia's 2025/26 Federal Budget will be delivered on Tuesday evening, paving the way for the Federal Election which must occur on or before 17 May. Locally, it's a quiet week with ANZ consumer confidence for March the only notable release.

Central banks will be in focus this week with monetary policy decisions due in the US, Japan and the UK. The Fed will be the obvious highlight and although no change to interest rates is expected, markets will be interested in the commentary and a fresh set of projections. Locally, the main event will be December quarter gross domestic product (GDP), which is due Thursday. The economy has contracted for eight consecutive quarters (on a per capita basis), and we're hoping for early signs of improvement.

As of yesterday's close, the S&P 500 in the US is down 10.1 per cent from its February highs. A fall of more than ten per cent is generally considered a market correction, and we're officially in one of those now. Our crystal ball isn't any better than yours, and we'd be lying if we said we know exactly where things go from here. However, here are four things keeping us from getting too negative too early.

After two consecutive years of 25 per cent plus returns, the S&P 500 index in the US is down 2.5 per cent this year as investors fret over tariffs. However, there's always a bull market somewhere and right now, that seems to be in Europe. European shares are up ten per cent this year, led by German shares which have surged 15.6 per cent. That's the best start to a year in at least a decade, but the question now is whether those gains will keep on coming.

This week's highlight will be the February inflation report in the US, with the University of Michigan survey also in focus amidst weakening confidence and rising inflation expectations. Developments on the tariff front will also have a big impact on market sentiment. On Monday, China is set to impose tariffs of up to 15% on various US imports, while the US set to impose steel and aluminium tariffs of 25% on the European Union from Wednesday. Canada will be in the spotlight too, with the governing Liberal Party set to announce a replacement for Justin Trudeau in a leadership vote on Sunday. This comes at a volatile time, ahead of the Canadian general election which must be held by October.