On Point

Should I pay off the mortgage faster, or use that extra cash to invest? If this isn't the most common investor question, then it's definitely in the top five. The textbook, Excel spreadsheet, and your purist accountant friend are all likely to suggest paying down the mortgage. There's good reason for that, but when might it make sense to ignore the rules and do some investing on the side anyway?

Here's a fresh take on a popular episode from way back in June. We took a look at the 2025 UBS Global Family Office Report, which captured the views of 317 family office clients with an average net worth of US$2.7 billion! Attitudes to risk, governance practices, running costs, staffing and succession planning were all covered, but it's where they put their money that interested us the most!

The last full trading week of 2025 is shaping up as an incredibly busy one right across the world. In the US, delayed jobs and inflation reports will take centre stage, despite both likely being subject to data quality issues due to the shutdown. Central banks will also be in focus, with monetary policy decisions coming from the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan. The calendar is just as full here in New Zealand, with the HYEFU on Tuesday and Thursday's September quarter GDP report the likely highlights. We'll also get the final dairy auction of the year, the latest REINZ housing market report, and a fresh ANZ Business Outlook.

This year will soon draw to a close, and despite plenty of ups and down along the way it's proved to be a lucrative one for investors. Let's discuss some of the highlights and key events, before turning our attention to how 2026 will unfold. How should investors be thinking about the year ahead, and what might financial markets bring?

The focus this week will be on central bank decisions, with the main event to be the Federal Reserve on Thursday morning (NZ time). Closer to home, the labour force report for November is due across the Tasman, while the September quarter manufacturing survey will be of interest here in New Zealand.

Predicting investment returns isn't easy. Nobody can do this with accuracy, regardless of their experience, intellect or resources. However, when the collective crystal ball gazing from some of the world's leading investment firms is collated, it's worth a look. US-based Horizon Actuarial has done just that with its annual survey of capital market assumptions. Here's what they found.

Wholesale interest rates increased to more than three-month highs in the wake of the final RBNZ decision of 2025. The NZ dollar also rose strongly against most trading partners, as markets speculate the central bank is done cutting the OCR. Should we worry about that, or is it a good thing the RBNZ might be done?

After a very strong period that has seen global sharemarket hit new highs, volatility has returned. This will be causing a lot of consternation among investors, particularly those who have entered the fray in recent months. However, for new investors rough markets are your friend and these are periods we should to look forward to, rather than fear.

A big week looms here in New Zealand, with the main event set to be the Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision and Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) from the Reserve Bank on Wednesday afternoon. Markets see a cut of 0.25% as a certainty, while pricing implies about a 50/50 chance of an additional cut beyond that, making the MPS forecasts important.

Last month the NZX 50 index hit a fresh record high, finally surpassing the previous peak from January 2021. It was a long time coming. Other markets recovered from their post-COVID hangover much more quickly, but we've taken almost five years. At first glance, this would all suggest that our market has regained all its lost ground, surpassed the previous market peak and pushed on to bigger and better things. However, that's not quite so.

There's a lot to watch this week, including a string of delayed US economic releases. However, these might all be overshadowed by the world's most important stock. Tech heavyweight and AI poster child NVIDIA is scheduled to release its latest quarterly earnings report on Wednesday in the US.

It was a “risk-off” week for global markets, with most indices slipping as investors became more nervous about extended valuations across parts of the US market. The local NZX 50 bucked the global trend with a small rise, while the NZ dollar continued to drift lower. It fell to US$0.56 against the greenback, the lowest since just after Liberation Day in April. The currency is also the weakest since 2015 against the British pound, the lowest since 2013 against the Australian dollar and at levels we haven't seen since 2009 against the euro!

Labour's targeted capital gains tax (CGT) announcement last week was interesting. We're yet to see the detail, but has it got some merit? Taxes, property and politics are three topics that lead to robust debate amongst many New Zealanders, so let's roll those into one and talk about this latest proposal!

A busy week looms in New Zealand, with the highlight set to be the September quarter labour force report, due Wednesday. Unemployment is expected to rise to 5.3%, the highest since 2016. The latest Financial Stability Report from the RBNZ will be of interest too. Last but not least, it's another big week of earnings releases with more than 130 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report results.

Lower interest rates have been a cause for celebration for many people in recent months. However, conservative savers with money on term deposit won't be quite so enthusiastic. They were sitting pretty 18 months ago, with the six-month term deposit rate offering a yield of six per cent, the highest since 2008. Since then, rates have slumped more than 40 per cent to under 3.5 per cent. That's a hefty pay cut, if your term deposit nest egg is a key source of income.

US credit markets have delivered strong returns this year. Companies have been issuing record amounts of debt, borrowing costs have remained manageable and bond investors have pocketed solid gains. However, in recent weeks cracks have appeared beneath the surface, and the pace at which the problems have emerged is worth paying attention to.

Investors will be watching US economic releases ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting, with the September consumer price index (CPI) report a likely highlight. Inflation will be front and centre here in New Zealand too. The latest CPI report is due on Monday, with the headline measure likely to hit 3.0% (the highest in more than 12 months).

In recent weeks and months, the NZ dollar has weakened against most trading partners. It's down six per cent against the US dollar since the beginning of July, while it's at a three year low against the Australian dollar. We're under 0.50 against the euro, something we haven't seen since late 2009, more than 15 years ago. It's doing exactly what you'd expect it to against a challenging economic backdrop, and whether this is good or bad depends on your perspective.

The government shutdown is now into its 12th day and there aren't any signs of a compromise yet. At least we can count on the private sector to remain open, and a slew of corporate earnings releases to fill the gap this week. More than 30 S&P 500 companies are set to announce results, including some of the US banking heavyweights. Here in New Zealand, we should get a fresh housing market report from the Real Estate Institute, while RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway is giving a speech on Wednesday in Sydney.

It's been a fantastic run for the US sharemarket. The S&P 500 index is up 18 per cent in the past 12 months, and 83 per cent over three years. Even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has commented on this, noting that “equity prices are fairly highly valued” during a recent speech. Are US stocks in a bubble, and how worried should investors be about where valuations have got to?

A big week looms here in New Zealand, with the latest Official Cash Rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) the clear highlight on Wednesday. Another cut is assured, but will it be another 0.25% or will the RBNZ opt for a larger 0.50% move?

The first three quarters of the calendar year are behind us, and investors have again been well rewarded for ignoring the noise and staying the course. If the global economy remains resilient and corporate earnings continue to grow solidly, share prices are likely to remain buoyant. We have seasonality on our side too, with this home stretch typically a positive period for global markets.

The New Zealand economy has contracted (on a per capita basis) for nine of the last 12 quarters, making for a deep and lengthy recession. This has inevitably weighed on the performance of local investments. Other countries have had a much better time of it, and there have been some excellent opportunities for strong investment returns of late. They just haven't been here in Aotearoa. This really highlights the need to ensure your investments are globally diversified.

What a week! The S&P 500 index rose 1.2% to fresh highs last week, buoyed by solid economic indicators and the first rate cut from the Federal Reserve since last year. The Russell 2000 (a US small-cap index) was up for a seventh straight week, while credit spreads tightened to levels last seen in 1998. Here in New Zealand, we saw a very weak GDP report, that's got people talking about a 50-basis point OCR cut in October.

Gold continues to be a hot topic of conversation across financial markets, with the precious metal rising almost 40 per cent so far in 2025 and hitting fresh record highs. Here's what you need to know if you're thinking about adding the shiny stuff to your portfolio.

The Federal Reserve will be the clear highlight this week, with markets expecting a resumption of the easing cycle that has been on hold all year. Here in New Zealand, the key release will be the GDP report for the June quarter.

There's hope emerging that our economy is turning a corner. Is that possible with so much bad news still around? As always, whether your glass is half-full or half-empty depends on where you're looking, and what you're paying most attention to. We should expect more negative headlines in the months ahead, starting with the upcoming GDP report. However, keep in mind that some indicators tell us more about what's in the rear view mirror than what's ahead.

France will be in the spotlight early in the week, with a confidence vote being held on Monday in the National Assembly. The key event of the economic calendar will be the US CPI report for August, due Thursday, ahead of the Federal Reserve decision next week. The central banking highlight will be the ECB interest rate decision, where markets expect a hold.

New Zealand‘s long awaited economic recovery has been delayed, rather than cancelled. Most of us fix our mortgages, so when the OCR falls or banks reduce mortgage rates we don't benefit from those lower costs right away. A steady stream of borrowers moving onto lower rates will hopefully boost activity and spending, putting businesses in a stronger position and giving them the confidence to grow, hire and invest.

It's a holiday-shortened week in the US with markets closed for Labor Day on Monday, although the economy will be in focus this week with the August jobs report, ISM indices and the Fed's Beige Book all due for release. We'll also be watching for any political fallout after President Trump's tariffs were ruled illegal by a federal appeals court last week!

Three US stocks are now as big as four entire sectors. That's not hyperbole, it's the reality of today's market. NVIDIA, Microsoft and Apple together make up more than one-fifth of the S&P 500. To put that in perspective, it's more than the combined weight of the four traditional defensive sectors of the market - healthcare, consumer staples, utilities and real estate. What does this mean for investors, and should it concern us?

The reporting season continues across with Chorus, EBOS Group, Meridian Energy, Summerset and Port of Tauranga all due to report in New Zealand, while we'll hear from Coles, Woolworths, South32 and Wesfarmers across the Tasman. Internationally, NVIDIA will be in focus when its latest earnings are announced on Wednesday in the US.

World shares have hit fresh record highs in recent days, defying forecasts for a pullback and looking much stronger than many predicted a few months ago. The MSCI All Country World Index is up 13.2 per cent in 2025, and is more than 40 per cent higher over the past two years. Let's run through some of the reasons why investors are in such good spirits, as we ponder whether this optimism is justified.

There's plenty to monitor this week with the local highlight expected to be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision on Wednesday afternoon. Another cut to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is widely expected, and markets will be focused on the latest forecasts and projections for clues as to how low the OCR goes from there.

The local reporting season is heating up, and we're all hopeful it'll suggest the long-awaited economic recovery is in sight. The coming few weeks will reveal whether our listed corporate sector is ready to embrace recovery, or if we'll be left cautiously waiting for another six months or more. For under-pressure management teams, frustrated investors and nervous politicians alike, the stakes are rising after an extended period of underperformance.

Tariff headlines will remain a focal point this week, with the pause between the US and China due to to expire on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump also plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday in Alaska, as he looks to broker a ceasefire agreement and bring an end to the war in Ukraine.

Despite some short-term pricing pressures, inflation is largely under control and expected to remain within the Reserve Bank's target band of 1-3%. However, even if we can declare inflation beaten the effects of the cost-of-living crisis still linger. The pace of the increases may have slowed right now, but we're stuck with the big rises of the last few years.

Trade and tariffs will in focus again this week, with the new US tariffs set to take effect on Thursday. Here in New Zealand, the highlight will be the June quarter labour force report, which is out on Wednesday. Economists expect the unemployment rate to increase to 5.3%, the highest since 2016. This is likely to seal the deal on another cut to the Official Cash Rate later this month.

Should I pay off the mortgage faster, or use that extra cash to invest? This is always a common question, and it's especially relevant today. While mortgage rates are way down from the highs of 2023, borrowing costs are still above the average of the past 15 years. Let's crunch a few numbers and run through some pros and cons.

A massive week looms for investors. Trade negotiations will remain front and centre, with markets particularly focused on developments between the US and the European Union, as well as talks between the US and China. Outside of trade, there is no shortage of economic releases and central bank decisions for investors to digest, including the US jobs report and a Fed decision. If that's not enough to keep you busy, there are more than 150 S&P 500 companies due to report earnings, including Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple!

The country has dragged itself out of recession and mortgage rates have been falling for 18 months. However, against conventional wisdom the long-awaited housing market recovery still hasn't arrived. For the first time in a long while, the housing market is working more for buyers than sellers, and that rebalancing might be exactly what we need.

Here in New Zealand, the June quarter inflation report will be the key release this week. Markets are bracing for an increase in the annual inflation rate to 2.8%, the highest in 12 months and above Reserve Bank expectations. Elsewhere, the international earnings season will ramp up after a good start, with more than 100 S&P 500 companies set to announce results over the coming days.

The RBNZ isn't done with cutting rates just yet, but an important insight borrowers should take from last week's "no change" decision is that we are nearing the end of the easing cycle. The upshot here is that most of the downward move in mortgage rates is behind us. I wouldn't say this is quite “as good as it gets” for borrowers, but we're much closer to that point than many think.

Markets will watching for further news on tariffs out of the White House this week, and keeping an eye on some key growth indicators out of China. Earnings will also be in focus, as the international reporting season ramps up. With many indices - including the S&P 500 in the US - sitting close to record highs this could be a crucial test for markets.

AI could prove an extremely useful tool, making workers more productive and unlocking exciting innovations. While we've seen technological changes in the past, AI adoption curves could be steeper than those of other major shifts in recent decades. The long-term improvement in living standards and productivity growth will come at a short-term cost, and policymakers will need to think carefully about how to provide support. For investors, it's a theme we can't afford to ignore.

A crucial week looms, both internationally as well as here in New Zealand. Markets are eagerly awaiting the end of the President Trump's 90-day reciprocal tariff extension, which expires on July 9th. Closer to home, all eyes will be on the RBNZ, to see if it leaves the OCR unchanged as expected, or surprises markets with another cut.

Every once in a while, you hear talk of how much worse off you'd be if you'd missed the ten best days in a given period. It usually happens during a rough patch, in the hope it'll calm investors down and ensure they stay the course rather than panicking and selling at precisely the wrong time. The numbers are always compelling, and it's admirable advice. However, there's one important point that is often missed.

Since 1900, US shares have returned 9.8 per cent per annum (including dividends). That's a recipe for wealth generation and an excellent way to ensure your capital grows more than inflation (which has been just below three per cent per annum over that period). But here's the thing, the market rarely delivers an annual return anywhere near that long-term average. It's usually some way above or below that!

With the midpoint of the year upon us, it's been a mixed bag (and at times, a rollercoaster) for investors. Somewhat ominously, it feels like 2025 is just getting started. We're at a crucial crossroads and there's no shortage of key events looming in the months ahead.

Looking ahead, events in the Middle East will remain a focal point as investors watch for signs of further escalation. Central banks will also be in the spotlight, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled to testify to Congress, following last week's Fed decision. The economic highlights this week will be flash PMIs for June, which are out on Monday and will provide an important pulse check of the global growth picture.

There have been increasing concerns over “stagflation” risks in recent months, as economic indicators weaken and tariffs threaten to push inflation back up. The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran - as well as its impact on oil prices - has added further risk to the outlook. What can we learn from periods like the 1970s, and is the threat of stagflation something investors should be worried about?