On Point

The US sharemarket has had a great run of late, rebounding strong from the March lows and hitting fresh highs. The S&P 500 is now up more than eight per cent in 2026 (including dividends), and we're only a third of the way through the year. That's impressive, especially given the volatility we've seen lately. However, while the S&P 500 is getting all the headlines there's another quietly outperforming it, and by a wide margin.

The Reserve Bank meets later this month, and there's an outside chance the Official Cash Rate (OCR) will rise by 0.25%. If there's no move this week, the focus will shift to the July meeting, where markets see an increase as almost certain. What might it mean for the economy, financial markets and investors?

A highlight of the week will be the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, scheduled for May 14-15. This will be the first since Trump returned to office last January, and there will be no shortage of issues to discuss.

Inflation is always a hot topic in financial markets, and it'll be even more prominent as fuel prices push it higher over the next quarter or two. There's a healthy cynicism about our official inflation figures, and many people would argue their own cost of living has increased more than these would suggest. So how do we measure inflation anyway, and what exactly is the Consumers Price Index?

In the coming week, the economic highlight will be the April jobs report in the US. On the central banking front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be in the spotlight on Tuesday afternoon. Here in Aotearoa, the March labour force report will be the highest profile release, while we'll also get the results of another dairy auction. During the upcoming week, more than 100 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report results, including the likes of CVS Health, Diageo, Disney, Novo Nordisk, McDonalds, Republic Services and Shell.

The S&P 500 index in the US has increased for four consecutive weeks, rebounding strongly from the weakness in March. That leaves it up 13 per cent from the recent lows, and almost three per cent above its pre-conflict peak. You could be forgiven for wondering why the sharemarket is hitting new records, with oil prices still very high and the situation in the Middle East unresolved. There's never just one reason why markets move up or down, but right now the answer could be a simple one.

Some 180 S&P 500 companies are due to report this week, representing 44% of the S&P 500 by market cap. Half of that (so about 22%) comes on Wednesday, which will be a very busy day for corporate earnings releases. We'll hear from five of the so-called "Magnificent 7" cohort this week (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft), as well as Coca-Cola, Visa, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, Unilever, Chevron and Exxon Mobil.

Stagflation has been in the headlines in recent weeks, as the oil price shock threatens to push inflation back up while taking a big chunk out of economic activity at the same time. The term is used to describe the highly undesirable combination of low growth, high unemployment, and high inflation. Could we see a return to the bad old days (economically, that is) of the 1970s?

The S&P 500 index in the US surged another 4.5% last week to close at fresh highs, after some positive developments in the Middle East. After being down 9.1% from its January peak in late March, the S&P 500 has rebounded 12.3% to surpass those previous highs and sit 4.1% above where it started the year.

With the war between the US and Iran entering its seventh week, we're close to an important crossroads for markets. In the last several days we've had a ceasefire agreement, the highest-level diplomatic meetings between the two nations since the 1979 Iranian revolution, and US moves to blockade the Strait of Hormuz after talks failed. The situation remains fragile, and we're already seeing the impact of this across the global economy.

Investors will be closely monitoring US-Iran talks in Islamabad over the coming days, the highest-level diplomatic meeting between Iran and the US since the 1979 Iranian revolution. This will comes as the quarterly international earnings season kicks off with the US banking heavyweights set to report this week, as well as Netflix, PepsiCo and TSMC.

If you're lucky enough to have a bit of surplus cash right now, it's a difficult time to think about putting it to work. Diving in boots and all is foolhardy, while waiting in the wings for perfect conditions can be equally unwise. What's the best strategy for investors to use?

The focus this week will remain on the Middle East, with US President Trump's ten-day pause in attacks on Iran's energy facilities set to expire on Monday. The key economic release is likely to be the CPI inflation report for March in the US, where annual inflation is expected to jump to a two-year high of 3.4%. Here in Aotearoa the main event will be the Reserve Bank's monetary policy decision on Wednesday afternoon. While no change to the OCR is expected, the tone and commentary of the statement (and press conference) will be of more interest.

The last month will have been disconcerting for investors, especially those new to financial markets. Some will be tempted to sell out, cutting their losses in case the conflict escalates and markets fall further. If you're a trader with a time horizon that's measured in weeks or months, maybe that's the right approach. However, if your foray into share investing is part of a longer-term strategy you've got a more difficult decision to make.

The ongoing conflict in Iran will remain front and centre for investors, while another batch of economic indicators for March are released. The highest profile release will be the US jobs report, while we'll also get the ISM manufacturing index and the Conference Board's consumer confidence. Here in New Zealand, the ANZ Business Outlook survey for March will be a highlight. A fall in sentiment is expected but it will also be useful to monitor how firms are thinking about the impact on costs and any plans to raise prices in response.

The conflict between the US and Iran has disrupted one of the world's most important trade routes, the Strait of Hormuz. The impact of this will feed directly into local inflation, reversing some of our recent progress and reminding households that global events can still hit close to home. How will the Reserve Bank react to this, and are we set for early OCR hikes?

Global flash PMIs for March will be the key global releases this week, as some of the first economic indicators we'll get that cover the period since the war began. Here In New Zealand, all eyes will be on RBNZ Governor Dr Anna Breman on Tuesday. She is scheduled to give a speech discussing the potential impacts of the conflict on the New Zealand economy.

With the election less than eight months away now, investors are increasingly starting to think about what it means for the economy, asset prices and their portfolios. The election campaign will no doubt be entertaining, with the usual twists and turns. However, there's no need for a complete rethink of your investment strategy, nor should we let political uncertainty stop us taking action.

Central banks will be the key focus in the days ahead (outside of geopolitics), with interest rate decisions due from several major policymaking groups. The Federal Reserve in the US will be the highlight, while we'll also hear from the Reserve Bank of Australia, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and Bank of Japan.

The situation in the Middle East is moving very quickly and like any geopolitical event, it's difficult to anticipate where it'll go next. US crude oil prices surged 35.6 per cent last week and at the beginning of this week, prices jumped above US$100. What might this mean for inflation, interest rates and financial markets?

The Middle East will be the key focus in the coming week, as investors consider what a protracted conflict could mean for energy prices (both oil as well as natural gas), and in turn inflation, central bank policy settings, and economic growth.

One of the biggest talking points for investors in the past year or two has been the increasingly concentrated nature of the US sharemarket. The top ten stocks represent a whopping 38 per cent of the index today, compared with 20-30 per cent historically. A few mega-cap stocks now have a huge influence over where the world's biggest market (and therefore most of our retirement savings) is headed and unsurprisingly, this has made a lot of investors nervous.

The S&P 500 index in the US fell slightly during February, dragged down by higher-growth and technology stocks. However, it was an extremely strong month for many other global markets and assets. Japanese shares surged 10.4%, while UK shares rallied 6.7% and emerging market equities were up 5.4%. The ASX 200 in Australia rose 3.7%, while the domestic NZX 50 index was up 2.2% in February, its strongest monthly rise since September.

It's been a sluggish start to the year for the US sharemarket. The S&P 500 has also been more volatile of late, having fallen for five of the past eight weeks. It feels like it could be another bumpy year, especially with the US midterm elections ahead. We might even see a bigger sell-off in the months ahead. That's not something to be afraid of, and it doesn't mean the market can't put in another solid performance.

The market reaction to Friday's Supreme Court decision on tariffs will be in focus this week, while President Trump is also set to deliver his State of the Union address on Tuesday. Thursday's ANZ Business Outlook for February will be the key release here in New Zealand, while a plethora of NZX companies are set to announce results in the days ahead. Further afield, investors will be watching earnings from NVIDIA, Salesforce and Home Depot.

Inflation is well down from the multi-decade high of 7.3 per cent that prevailed a few years ago, but it remains stubbornly above that elusive two per cent level. We're not the only ones grappling with pricing pressures, and there's a growing chorus of commentators asking whether something more structural is at play. If three (or even four) per cent was new two per cent, what would this mean for investors?

A busy week looms, with the February Monetary Policy Statement from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) a clear highlight. The focus will be on the tone and how the Official Cash Rate (OCR) track differs from the November MPS. That had the first hike pencilled in for early 2027, although markets see it coming later this year. Will the RBNZ bring it forward to match?

The local reporting season kicks off this week across the NZX, and we'll get some useful insights into the state of the economy. These will tell us if the long-awaited recovery is truly upon us, or if it's another false start like we saw a year ago. Here's what we'll be watching and why.

It was a very volatile week for markets, with a strong rebound on Friday flattering returns from many asset classes and masking some of the weakness. Growth stocks have been hit hardest, with the software sector in particular facing a sharp sell-off. We've also seen big moves in precious metals and crypto. Which asset classes have been most resilient amidst the volatility, and what should investors be watching in the coming days?

The first month of the year is behind us and despite what feels like a year's worth of market drama, the US sharemarket posted another healthy gain. It rose 1.4 per cent in January, a very solid return that was above the 1.1 per cent average for all of the January's since 1950. That bodes well for the balance of this year, according to the "January Barometer".

Markets will continue to digest the news of Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair this week, while monetary policy decisions loom in the UK, Europe and Australia. It will be a holiday-shortened week here in New Zealand, with markets closed on Friday for Waitangi Day. Ahead of that, we'll get the results of another dairy auction as well as the December quarter labour force report. The international reporting season will be in full swing too, with more than 150 S&P 500 companies due to announce results.

There were plenty of lessons for investors in 2025, as is the case every time we close the book on a calendar year. However, there was one in particular that stood out, because if investors didn't do this they left some significant gains on the table.

There's plenty to watch this week, including the first Federal Reserve meeting of the year. However, investors will get the chance to refocus on what matters most for share prices, and that's corporate earnings. More than 100 S&P 500 companies are set to announce results, including four of the so-called Magnificent 7 cohort. We'll hear from Meta, Microsoft, Tesla and Apple this week, which collectively represent some 16% of the S&P 500 by size.

It's been prediction season on Wall Street, with all the gurus consulting their crystal balls to firm up their forecasts for where the S&P 500 index will finish 2026. Let's take a closer look at how the market is expected to perform this year, how that compares with history, and how investors should think about these.

A busy week looms locally, with the highlight likely to be the latest quarterly inflation report on Friday. If it comes in above RBNZ forecasts for a 2.7% annual gain, which might this mean for the path of interest rates?

While almost every country in the world has been reducing interest rates from multi-decade highs, Japan has been doing the exact opposite. The Japanese economy isn't as dominant as it once was, but it is critically important in terms of global financial markets, especially for foreign exchange and bond yields. We've seen some big moves in bond yields, with the 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield rising above two per cent for the first time since 1999. We need to keep a close eye on how the landscape is changing, and watch for ripples across other markets too.

Will the OCR start to rise again this year, how might sharemarkets perform and where is the NZ dollar headed? Nobody has a perfectly working crystal ball, but its a useful process to go through to help firm up your thinking nonetheless. Despite the futility of trying to forecast where financial markets are headed, here's our contribution to the noise!

Welcome to a new year! Let's tackle an important and popular topic that every self-respecting kiwi has a strong opinion about - the housing market. Why have prices done nothing for three years, is 2026 the year of the housing market recovery, and what should prospective homeowners or investors be expecting?

There's just three trading days to go in 2025, and that's all. We're pretty much at the end of 2025, so let's look back on how returns from most of the main asset classes stacked up and make a few observations for investors.

Inflation is back the target band and while it's not dead and buried, it's at least contained. However, that doesn't mean we can declare the cost-of-living crisis over. The things with inflation is that it measures the rate of change in prices, not the level of prices. Let's talk about why that matters.

Should I pay off the mortgage faster, or use that extra cash to invest? If this isn't the most common investor question, then it's definitely in the top five. The textbook, Excel spreadsheet, and your purist accountant friend are all likely to suggest paying down the mortgage. There's good reason for that, but when might it make sense to ignore the rules and do some investing on the side anyway?

Here's a fresh take on a popular episode from way back in June. We took a look at the 2025 UBS Global Family Office Report, which captured the views of 317 family office clients with an average net worth of US$2.7 billion! Attitudes to risk, governance practices, running costs, staffing and succession planning were all covered, but it's where they put their money that interested us the most!

The last full trading week of 2025 is shaping up as an incredibly busy one right across the world. In the US, delayed jobs and inflation reports will take centre stage, despite both likely being subject to data quality issues due to the shutdown. Central banks will also be in focus, with monetary policy decisions coming from the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan. The calendar is just as full here in New Zealand, with the HYEFU on Tuesday and Thursday's September quarter GDP report the likely highlights. We'll also get the final dairy auction of the year, the latest REINZ housing market report, and a fresh ANZ Business Outlook.

This year will soon draw to a close, and despite plenty of ups and down along the way it's proved to be a lucrative one for investors. Let's discuss some of the highlights and key events, before turning our attention to how 2026 will unfold. How should investors be thinking about the year ahead, and what might financial markets bring?

The focus this week will be on central bank decisions, with the main event to be the Federal Reserve on Thursday morning (NZ time). Closer to home, the labour force report for November is due across the Tasman, while the September quarter manufacturing survey will be of interest here in New Zealand.

Predicting investment returns isn't easy. Nobody can do this with accuracy, regardless of their experience, intellect or resources. However, when the collective crystal ball gazing from some of the world's leading investment firms is collated, it's worth a look. US-based Horizon Actuarial has done just that with its annual survey of capital market assumptions. Here's what they found.

Wholesale interest rates increased to more than three-month highs in the wake of the final RBNZ decision of 2025. The NZ dollar also rose strongly against most trading partners, as markets speculate the central bank is done cutting the OCR. Should we worry about that, or is it a good thing the RBNZ might be done?

After a very strong period that has seen global sharemarket hit new highs, volatility has returned. This will be causing a lot of consternation among investors, particularly those who have entered the fray in recent months. However, for new investors rough markets are your friend and these are periods we should to look forward to, rather than fear.

A big week looms here in New Zealand, with the main event set to be the Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision and Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) from the Reserve Bank on Wednesday afternoon. Markets see a cut of 0.25% as a certainty, while pricing implies about a 50/50 chance of an additional cut beyond that, making the MPS forecasts important.

Last month the NZX 50 index hit a fresh record high, finally surpassing the previous peak from January 2021. It was a long time coming. Other markets recovered from their post-COVID hangover much more quickly, but we've taken almost five years. At first glance, this would all suggest that our market has regained all its lost ground, surpassed the previous market peak and pushed on to bigger and better things. However, that's not quite so.

There's a lot to watch this week, including a string of delayed US economic releases. However, these might all be overshadowed by the world's most important stock. Tech heavyweight and AI poster child NVIDIA is scheduled to release its latest quarterly earnings report on Wednesday in the US.