On Point

Follow On Point
Share on
Copy link to clipboard

Stay on point with Craigs. Keep up to date with the latest developments in financial markets and the economy. Investing involves risks. You aren’t guaranteed to make money and you might lose the money you started with. Any information provided is general, current at the time and not financial advice. It doesn’t take into account your particular financial situation. We don't accept liability for results of actions taken or not taken based on information provided. Before making any investment decision we recommend you seek professional assistance from an investment adviser. Visit craigsip.com.

Craigs Investment Partners


    • Sep 28, 2025 LATEST EPISODE
    • weekdays NEW EPISODES
    • 15m AVG DURATION
    • 307 EPISODES


    Search for episodes from On Point with a specific topic:

    Latest episodes from On Point

    ep 305 | What might the final quarter of 2025 bring?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 28, 2025 5:38


    The first three quarters of the calendar year are behind us, and investors have again been well rewarded for ignoring the noise and staying the course. If the global economy remains resilient and corporate earnings continue to grow solidly, share prices are likely to remain buoyant. We have seasonality on our side too, with this home stretch typically a positive period for global markets.

    ep 304 | Has your home bias left money on the table?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 23, 2025 6:18


    The New Zealand economy has contracted (on a per capita basis) for nine of the last 12 quarters, making for a deep and lengthy recession. This has inevitably weighed on the performance of local investments. Other countries have had a much better time of it, and there have been some excellent opportunities for strong investment returns of late. They just haven't been here in Aotearoa. This really highlights the need to ensure your investments are globally diversified.

    ep 303 | The week ahead - Soft GDP puts a 50-basis point OCR cut on the table

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 20, 2025 15:29


    What a week! The S&P 500 index rose 1.2% to fresh highs last week, buoyed by solid economic indicators and the first rate cut from the Federal Reserve since last year. The Russell 2000 (a US small-cap index) was up for a seventh straight week, while credit spreads tightened to levels last seen in 1998. Here in New Zealand, we saw a very weak GDP report, that's got people talking about a 50-basis point OCR cut in October.

    ep 302 | The asset outperforming everything else in 2025

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2025 7:55


    Gold continues to be a hot topic of conversation across financial markets, with the precious metal rising almost 40 per cent so far in 2025 and hitting fresh record highs. Here's what you need to know if you're thinking about adding the shiny stuff to your portfolio.

    ep 301 | The week ahead - Are we due for the first Fed rate cut of 2025?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 13, 2025 12:10


    The Federal Reserve will be the clear highlight this week, with markets expecting a resumption of the easing cycle that has been on hold all year. Here in New Zealand, the key release will be the GDP report for the June quarter.

    ep 300 | Why are markets upbeat amidst such grim data?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 9, 2025 6:08


    There's hope emerging that our economy is turning a corner. Is that possible with so much bad news still around? As always, whether your glass is half-full or half-empty depends on where you're looking, and what you're paying most attention to. We should expect more negative headlines in the months ahead, starting with the upcoming GDP report. However, keep in mind that some indicators tell us more about what's in the rear view mirror than what's ahead.

    ep 299 | The week ahead - Did a weak jobs report just lock in a Fed rate cut later this month?

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 6, 2025 10:59


    France will be in the spotlight early in the week, with a confidence vote being held on Monday in the National Assembly. The key event of the economic calendar will be the US CPI report for August, due Thursday, ahead of the Federal Reserve decision next week. The central banking highlight will be the ECB interest rate decision, where markets expect a hold.

    ep 298 | New Zealand's economic recovery is delayed, not cancelled

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2025 5:29


    New Zealand‘s long awaited economic recovery has been delayed, rather than cancelled. Most of us fix our mortgages, so when the OCR falls or banks reduce mortgage rates we don't benefit from those lower costs right away. A steady stream of borrowers moving onto lower rates will hopefully boost activity and spending, putting businesses in a stronger position and giving them the confidence to grow, hire and invest.

    ep 297 | The week ahead - Are Trump's tariffs illegal?

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 30, 2025 10:46


    It's a holiday-shortened week in the US with markets closed for Labor Day on Monday, although the economy will be in focus this week with the August jobs report, ISM indices and the Fed's Beige Book all due for release. We'll also be watching for any political fallout after President Trump's tariffs were ruled illegal by a federal appeals court last week!

    ep 296 | What happens when mega-caps bend the benchmarks?

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 26, 2025 5:59


    Three US stocks are now as big as four entire sectors. That's not hyperbole, it's the reality of today's market. NVIDIA, Microsoft and Apple together make up more than one-fifth of the S&P 500. To put that in perspective, it's more than the combined weight of the four traditional defensive sectors of the market - healthcare, consumer staples, utilities and real estate. What does this mean for investors, and should it concern us?

    ep 295 | The week ahead - A deluge of domestic earnings, plus NVIDIA in the US!

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 23, 2025 12:49


    The reporting season continues across with Chorus, EBOS Group, Meridian Energy, Summerset and Port of Tauranga all due to report in New Zealand, while we'll hear from Coles, Woolworths, South32 and Wesfarmers across the Tasman. Internationally, NVIDIA will be in focus when its latest earnings are announced on Wednesday in the US.

    ep 294 | The bull market is back on, but does it deserve to be?

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 19, 2025 7:46


    World shares have hit fresh record highs in recent days, defying forecasts for a pullback and looking much stronger than many predicted a few months ago. The MSCI All Country World Index is up 13.2 per cent in 2025, and is more than 40 per cent higher over the past two years. Let's run through some of the reasons why investors are in such good spirits, as we ponder whether this optimism is justified.

    world deserve bull market msci all country world index
    ep 293 | The week ahead - An OCR cut is likely on Wednesday, but where to after that?

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 16, 2025 14:13


    There's plenty to monitor this week with the local highlight expected to be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision on Wednesday afternoon. Another cut to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is widely expected, and markets will be focused on the latest forecasts and projections for clues as to how low the OCR goes from there.

    ep 292 | Will the reporting season point to better days ahead?

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 12, 2025 5:47


    The local reporting season is heating up, and we're all hopeful it'll suggest the long-awaited economic recovery is in sight. The coming few weeks will reveal whether our listed corporate sector is ready to embrace recovery, or if we'll be left cautiously waiting for another six months or more. For under-pressure management teams, frustrated investors and nervous politicians alike, the stakes are rising after an extended period of underperformance.

    ep 291 | The week ahead - Can Trump broker a deal with Putin?

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 9, 2025 15:08


    Tariff headlines will remain a focal point this week, with the pause between the US and China due to to expire on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump also plans to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday in Alaska, as he looks to broker a ceasefire agreement and bring an end to the war in Ukraine.

    ep 290 | Why lower inflation doesn't mean lower prices

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 5, 2025 7:27


    Despite some short-term pricing pressures, inflation is largely under control and expected to remain within the Reserve Bank's target band of 1-3%. However, even if we can declare inflation beaten the effects of the cost-of-living crisis still linger. The pace of the increases may have slowed right now, but we're stuck with the big rises of the last few years.

    ep 289 | The week ahead - Is unemployment about to hit an eight-year high?

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 2, 2025 14:36


    Trade and tariffs will in focus again this week, with the new US tariffs set to take effect on Thursday. Here in New Zealand, the highlight will be the June quarter labour force report, which is out on Wednesday. Economists expect the unemployment rate to increase to 5.3%, the highest since 2016. This is likely to seal the deal on another cut to the Official Cash Rate later this month.

    ep 288 | Should I pay off the mortgage faster, or invest?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 29, 2025 7:26


    Should I pay off the mortgage faster, or use that extra cash to invest? This is always a common question, and it's especially relevant today. While mortgage rates are way down from the highs of 2023, borrowing costs are still above the average of the past 15 years. Let's crunch a few numbers and run through some pros and cons.

    ep 287 | The week ahead - Trade talks, jobs, the Fed and more Mag7 earnings - it's all on!

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 26, 2025 13:58


    A massive week looms for investors. Trade negotiations will remain front and centre, with markets particularly focused on developments between the US and the European Union, as well as talks between the US and China. Outside of trade, there is no shortage of economic releases and central bank decisions for investors to digest, including the US jobs report and a Fed decision. If that's not enough to keep you busy, there are more than 150 S&P 500 companies due to report earnings, including Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple!

    ep 286 | Where's the long-awaited housing market recovery?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 22, 2025 10:50


    The country has dragged itself out of recession and mortgage rates have been falling for 18 months. However, against conventional wisdom the long-awaited housing market recovery still hasn't arrived. For the first time in a long while, the housing market is working more for buyers than sellers, and that rebalancing might be exactly what we need.

    ep 285 | The week ahead - Brace yourself for a hotter CPI report here in NZ

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 19, 2025 14:19


    Here in New Zealand, the June quarter inflation report will be the key release this week. Markets are bracing for an increase in the annual inflation rate to 2.8%, the highest in 12 months and above Reserve Bank expectations. Elsewhere, the international earnings season will ramp up after a good start, with more than 100 S&P 500 companies set to announce results over the coming days.

    ep 284 | This is almost as good as it gets for borrowers

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 15, 2025 7:48


    The RBNZ isn't done with cutting rates just yet, but an important insight borrowers should take from last week's "no change" decision is that we are nearing the end of the easing cycle. The upshot here is that most of the downward move in mortgage rates is behind us. I wouldn't say this is quite “as good as it gets” for borrowers, but we're much closer to that point than many think.

    ep 283 | The week ahead - Global earnings deluge incoming!

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 12, 2025 16:25


    Markets will watching for further news on tariffs out of the White House this week, and keeping an eye on some key growth indicators out of China. Earnings will also be in focus, as the international reporting season ramps up. With many indices - including the S&P 500 in the US - sitting close to record highs this could be a crucial test for markets.

    ep 282 | The overnight success of AI

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 8, 2025 6:37


    AI could prove an extremely useful tool, making workers more productive and unlocking exciting innovations. While we've seen technological changes in the past, AI adoption curves could be steeper than those of other major shifts in recent decades. The long-term improvement in living standards and productivity growth will come at a short-term cost, and policymakers will need to think carefully about how to provide support. For investors, it's a theme we can't afford to ignore.

    ep 281 | The week ahead - The RBNZ should cut this week, but will it?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 5, 2025 8:29


    A crucial week looms, both internationally as well as here in New Zealand. Markets are eagerly awaiting the end of the President Trump's 90-day reciprocal tariff extension, which expires on July 9th. Closer to home, all eyes will be on the RBNZ, to see if it leaves the OCR unchanged as expected, or surprises markets with another cut.

    ep 280 | The myth of missing the ten best days

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 3, 2025 6:00


    Every once in a while, you hear talk of how much worse off you'd be if you'd missed the ten best days in a given period. It usually happens during a rough patch, in the hope it'll calm investors down and ensure they stay the course rather than panicking and selling at precisely the wrong time. The numbers are always compelling, and it's admirable advice. However, there's one important point that is often missed.

    ep 279 | Forget about "average" sharemarket returns, because you'll hardly ever see them!

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 29, 2025 8:16


    Since 1900, US shares have returned 9.8 per cent per annum (including dividends). That's a recipe for wealth generation and an excellent way to ensure your capital grows more than inflation (which has been just below three per cent per annum over that period). But here's the thing, the market rarely delivers an annual return anywhere near that long-term average. It's usually some way above or below that!

    ep 278 | Second half outlook - what's the market mood at the moment?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 24, 2025 7:54


    With the midpoint of the year upon us, it's been a mixed bag (and at times, a rollercoaster) for investors. Somewhat ominously, it feels like 2025 is just getting started. We're at a crucial crossroads and there's no shortage of key events looming in the months ahead.

    ep 277 | The week ahead - After a solid GDP report, is the OCR already at the bottom?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 22, 2025 15:16


    Looking ahead, events in the Middle East will remain a focal point as investors watch for signs of further escalation. Central banks will also be in the spotlight, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled to testify to Congress, following last week's Fed decision. The economic highlights this week will be flash PMIs for June, which are out on Monday and will provide an important pulse check of the global growth picture.

    ep 276 | What is stagflation and should it worry investors?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 16, 2025 5:57


    There have been increasing concerns over “stagflation” risks in recent months, as economic indicators weaken and tariffs threaten to push inflation back up. The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran - as well as its impact on oil prices - has added further risk to the outlook. What can we learn from periods like the 1970s, and is the threat of stagflation something investors should be worried about?

    ep 275 | The week ahead - Middle East tension rattles investors

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 16, 2025 13:59


    Looking ahead, events in the Middle East will be a focal point, as investors watch for any further escalation between Israel and Iran. The G7 Leader's Summit takes place in Canada early in the week, ahead of the NATO summit next week. It's also a very big week for central banks, with monetary policy decisions due in the US, UK and Japan. None are expected to adjust policy rates, although the tone and commentary will be important. There's plenty to watch in the coming days here in New Zealand, and the key release will be the March quarter GDP report on Thursday. Markets expect another steady print, and a result above Reserve Bank estimates could ensure the OCR remains on hold at the next meeting.

    ep 274 | How much faith should we put in analyst recommendations?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 10, 2025 5:15


    Analyst reports can be very helpful when gathering information and trying to learn about a company. However, investors should take a more holistic view when choosing which shares to include in (or leave out of) their portfolio, rather than relying heavily on the recommendations and target prices they might see in such reports.

    ep 273 | The week ahead - Will US inflation figures show signs of tariff-induced higher prices?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 7, 2025 11:49


    Turning to the week ahead, the key economic release will be the May CPI report in the US, which is due overnight on Wednesday. Here in New Zealand, a steady stream of releases are due over the week including March quarter manufacturing figures, migration, and potentially a fresh housing report from the Real Estate Institute.

    ep 272 | How do the world's wealthiest families invest, and what can we learn from them?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 3, 2025 6:02


    The latest UBS Global Family Office Report offers some fascinating insights into how the world's wealthiest families think about risk, time and opportunity. However, it's where they put their money that interests me most. At a very high level, the average asset allocation isn't too dissimilar from that of a managed fund (in the growth category) or an individual investor with a comparable risk profile. There are some key differences though, with the most obvious being the 33 per cent allocation wealthy family offices have to alternative assets.

    ep 271 | The week ahead - US shares post biggest monthly gain in 18 months

    Play Episode Listen Later May 31, 2025 13:12


    The last ten days or so have been very eventful. President Trump imposed a 50% tariff on the European Union before delaying it by five weeks, then the US Court of International Trade ruled that many of the tariffs are illegal anyway. That saw the Court of Appeal grant a temporary stay that leaves them in place while the case is considered, and Trump ended the by doubling the tariffs on steel imports! The S&P 500 still managed a healthy 1.9% gain despite all that, and it ended the month of up 6.2%, the strongest monthly gain since November 2023.

    ep 270 | Greenback gloom

    Play Episode Listen Later May 26, 2025 6:06


    We've seen a big change in the perception of US assets in recent months, which has been reflected in falling growth expectations, a more volatile sharemarket and higher US interest rates. However, currency markets are where all these things intersect and the most telling signs might have come from the US dollar. What's next for the world's biggest economy, and how should investors play this?

    ep 269 | The week ahead - Another OCR cut looms, but will this be the last?

    Play Episode Listen Later May 24, 2025 10:48


    This week will be an extremely busy one, both internationally as well as here in New Zealand. The latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision will be the main event locally, and while another cut to the Official Cash Rate is widely expected, markets will be interested in any clues about how many more cuts we'll see from here on.

    ep 268 | Drawdown déjà vu

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 5:47


    After being down 18.9 per cent from its recent peak, the S&P 500 index in the US has recovered and is now back in positive territory year-to-date. Interestingly, drawdowns of that magnitude aren't nearly as rare as you might think, and nor are the rebounds. Volatility is the rule, rather than the exception. Get used to it.

    ep 267 | The week ahead - Shares surge while the Budget looms

    Play Episode Listen Later May 17, 2025 13:20


    It was a strong week global sharemarkets, with a 90-day trade truce between the US and China setting the positive tone early on. The S&P 500 in the US surged 5.3%, which saw it storm back into positive territory for the year and finish just 3.0% below its record high from February (having been down 18.9% from those levels at one point!). What do investors need to keep an eye out for next?

    ep 266 | Has the tariff truce turned the tide?

    Play Episode Listen Later May 12, 2025 5:56


    After two days of discussions over the weekend, the US and China agreed to a 90-day tariff truce. This was a bigger announcement than markets were expecting, and it substantially diminishes the risk of a full-blown trade war. What does this mean for the outlook, investors and the balance of the year?

    ep 265 | The week ahead - NZX 50 on track for its best month in five years

    Play Episode Listen Later May 10, 2025 14:55


    This week we'll be watching economic indicators for signs of any impact from the tariff announcements in early April, with US inflation and retail sales of particular interest. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is speaking on Thursday inWashington, D.C. and markets will be monitoring the outcome of trade talks between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China's Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland.

    ep 264 | If there's a US recession, which stocks will hold up best?

    Play Episode Listen Later May 4, 2025 5:23


    There has been increasing talk of a US recession in recent weeks, with one major global bank suggesting the odds of this are 60 per cent. It's certainly possible if harsh tariffs remain in place, although the outlook could brighten quickly if we see a de-escalation. Which stocks will hold up best in a recession, and what can we learn from previous downturns?

    ep 263 | Why Jerome Powell will be quietly fuming at President Trump

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 29, 2025 4:46


    A lot of people are frustrated with US President Donald Trump, but there's one who has a more genuine case than most. That's Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and not just because Trump wanted to fire him!

    ep 262 | The week ahead - Jobs report a key test for markets

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 27, 2025 13:51


    It's a big week for economic data releases in the US, with the jobs report due on Friday, the ISM manufacturing index and core PCE inflation report ahead of that, as well as the preliminary GDP reading for the March quarter. Here in New Zealand, we'll be watching the latest monthly ANZ Business Outlook survey for any signs of nervousness about the global trade situation, as well as inflation indicators. It'll be a very busy week for global earnings releases, with 180 S&P 500 companies due to report. This will include four of the “Magnificent 7” with Meta and Microsoft reporting on Wednesday, and Amazon and Apple to follow on Thursday. We'll also hear from Coca-Cola, Visa, Caterpillar, CVS Health and Eli Lilly.

    ep 261 | A sell-off survival guide

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 15, 2025 6:05


    It's been a very volatile few weeks for investors, and some markets and asset classes have fallen heavily amidst the uncertainty. All declines are different and it's impossible to say when or where this one ends. However, here are a few suggestions for navigating this one.

    ep 260 | The week ahead - Investors ditch US assets amidst tariff uncertainty

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 12, 2025 15:04


    The US market ended the week up 5.7%, which saw it finish 12.7% off its February highs, having been down 18.9% at its weakest point and very close to bear market territory. Most other markets finished the week slightly lower, with the local NZX 50 down 1.7%. Despite last week's partial tariff backtrack from the White House, the US 10-year bond yield ended the week at 4.5%, up from just under 4.0% seven days earlier. That was the biggest weekly jump since 2001, and it comes as investors exit US assets in favour of other jurisdictions. The US dollar index fell to its lowest level since July 2023, and the greenback is down 9.0% from where it was in mid-January.

    ep 258 | Deciphering a week of dramatic market moves

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 8, 2025 5:58


    The last several trading days have been extremely volatile for global markets, with US President Donald Trump unveiling a harsher set of tariffs than expected on “Liberation Day”. The S&P 500 index in the US fell 10.5 per cent in the two days following the initial announcement. It's been slightly calmer since then, but investors are still on edge. What have we seen across some of the key asset classes, and where might things be headed from here?

    ep 258 | The week ahead - An OCR cut looms against a very volatile backdrop

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 5, 2025 16:23


    It was an extremely volatile week for global markets, as "Liberation Day" sent investors into a tailspin. Investors will be watching for signs of further tariff retaliation (or negotiation) this week, while US inflation figures will in focus. Another OCR cut its widely expected here in New Zealand, and on the corporate front the quarterly international earnings season kicks off with some of the US banks on Friday.

    ep 257 | With Q1 behind us, what's in store for the next three months?

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 1, 2025 7:02


    The March quarter of 2025 is behind us and if it's any guide of things to come, we're in for an eventful year! The quarter was punctuated by policy uncertainty, shaky confidence readings and volatile markets. Which asset classes and markets were up, down or sideways, and what should investors be watching out for over the coming three months?

    ep 256 | The week ahead - Markets to remain on edge as US tariffs loom in April

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 29, 2025 14:50


    The focal point of this week will be the details of US reciprocal tariffs, which are scheduled to be implemented on Wednesday (April 2). A day later, 25% tariffs on cars imported into the US will take effect. It is unclear whether the reciprocal tariffs will be broad or targeted, but the prospect of added inflationary pressures and a tariff-induced economic slowdown will keep investors on edge. In terms of global economic releases, highlights will be the US jobs report and ISM indices, while here in New Zealand the latest ANZ Business Outlook survey will take centre stage.

    ep 255 | What's with the mixed messages from our economy?

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 25, 2025 6:41


    Last week's gross domestic product (GDP) report was comforting, coming in above expectations and pointing to the strongest improvement in 18 months. That was a welcome piece of good news, following a difficult February reporting season littered with cautious comments from management teams. In contrast, business confidence measures have rebounded strongly, which seems out of step with the downbeat tone we're seeing elsewhere. So what gives, and why are we getting mixed messages from some of our key economic indicators?

    Claim On Point

    In order to claim this podcast we'll send an email to with a verification link. Simply click the link and you will be able to edit tags, request a refresh, and other features to take control of your podcast page!

    Claim Cancel