Podcast appearances and mentions of may cpi

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news July starts on shaky ground everywhere although the ground is firmer in the US than China.As this is the first week of July, it will be heavy with PMI survey results everywhere (except New Zealand). But the most important release this week will be the American labour market report (their non-farms payrolls) for June on Saturday. Analysts currently expect another +180,000 gain. And before that we get their JOLTs report.In Europe, election results in France and England will shape the week. But so will CPI inflation rates. Not only do we get them for the EU and the other big EU economies, they also come for South Korea, Turkey, Indonesia, and the Philippines too.Over the weekend, Japanese industrial production data was released showing it rose +2.8% in May from April, beating market forecasts. It also recorded an unusual year-on-year gain too. This was the second increase so far this year, mainly due to strong motor vehicles output. They think June will slip back but July will be another gainer.But it was all backwards in China.The official factory PMI was steady for the second straight month as expected. The latest result marked the fourth contraction in factory activity so far this year, as Beijing was struggles to spur an economic revival amid weak demand, deflation risks, and a protracted property weakness. New orders, foreign sales, and buying levels all declined for the second month in a rowAnd their official services PMI slipped as well, now barely expanding. While it was the 18th consecutive month of expansion in June, the latest result was the softest since last December, as new orders and new export orders continues to contract.On Wednesday we may get the Caixin versions of these two PMIs. Recently they have delivered better results, although not significantly different.In the US, the inflation measure the Fed prefers, the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) was unchanged in May from April following a +0.3% rise in April. This was what markets were expecting. That means the annual PCE rate slipped to 2.6%, its lowest since March 2021. (The May CPI was 3.3% and we get the June CPI on June 13 (NZT).Personal spending was up +2.4% from May a year ago, personal income a bit less.US durable goods orders were unchanged in May from April but were -1.2% lower than the same month a year ago. Of more concern however will be that capital goods orders fell -10% on the same basis.Eventually that may weigh on employment, but so far it hasn't. Last week initial claims for jobless benefits fell from the prior week. Compared to the same week a year ago the number of people on these benefits was higher, but in relation to their workforce, that gain was insignificant.US pending home sales for May fell when a bounce-back was expected, reinforcing the funk the American housing market is in. In fact local sawmills have been closing on low new home demand and even that hasn't stopped wood prices from falling to post-pandemic lows. Their residential construction and home-improvement markets are buckling.The widely-watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey was little-changed in June, but it is up more than +6% from a year ago.The ECB said that its survey of consumer inflation expectations over the year ahead are now back to 2.8%, the same level they were at when they started this survey in early 2020. They peaked at 5.8% in October 2022. Those survey said they felt inflation ran at 5.8% over the prior 12 months. (It actually ran at 2.7% in the year to May but averaged 3.9% over the past twelve months. The June results comes later this week and is expected to be 2.5%.)In France, exit polls show that far-right candidates probably made gains in their weekend first-round elections, garnering about a third of the votes. Turnout was a 'high' 60%. But the final outcome is still uncertain. The second round will take place on July 7, 2024.The rise and rise of container freight rates continued last week, up +4% from the prior week to now be a massive 256% higher than the same week a year ago. Again the main culprit was outbound rates from China to Europe, hostage to the Yemeni Houthis and their piracy. Bulk cargo rates were up +2% for the week and are again in an uptrend. They are up +72% for the year.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39% and unchanged from Saturday. The price of gold will start today up +US$6 from Saturday at US$2326/oz.Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday at just on US$81/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still under US$85/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today slightly softer from Saturday at just on 60.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 56.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still lower at 70.5.The bitcoin price starts today at US$61,628 back up +1.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news questions remain about whether inflation's fall can be maintained.Today is another shadow day with mostly second-tier data released, but some of it is interesting all the same.First in the US, retail sales at physical stores were up +5.3% last week from the same week a year earlier, a good 'real' rise above inflation. But it was a slowing from earlier weeks and is the least rise since mid April.But things don't seem to be expanding anymore in their factory sector. More Fed district surveys are being released, the latest one from the mid-Atlantic states and that brought a slowing in June largely based on retreating new order levels.However the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index for May was less negative, turning up after two prior down months. This was on the back of expanding production levels and new order levels held their own.The Dallas Fed's services PMI for June retreated again in June, but by far less than the sharpish May level. This is a key 'red state' that is struggling.Nationally, the widely-watched Conference Board survey of consumer sentiment dipped in June from May, but not as much as expected. The 'present conditions' aspect remains buoyant, but it is the 'future expectations' component that eased a bit.Separately there was a US Treasury 2 year bond auction earlier today and it was strongly supported, delivering a median yield of 4.66%. A month ago at the equivalent event the median yield was 4.85%, so a -19 bps easing since then. More than US$192 bln was offered for the US$71 bln available.Is inflation under control in the US? A key Fed official doesn't think so yet, and said she is prepared to vote to raise rates again if the disinflation trend doesn't continue.In Canada, they got a small surprise from their May CPI data. It rose to 2.9% from its three-year low of 2.7% in April. Analysts had expected it to retreat to 2.6%. While this move is still in the Bank of Canada's expectation range of "about 3%", the halt to the disinflation trend challenged earlier bets that the central bank would continue loosening monetary policy. Bond yields fell there.In Japan, researchers have found more than 200 million tonnes of manganese nodules, rich in battery metals, in the Pacific Ocean and inside the country's exclusive economic zone. They say that is the deposit contains 610,000 tonnes of cobalt (equivalent to 75 years of Japan's consumption) and 740,000 tonnes of nickel (11 years).The latest South Korean consumer sentiment survey rose in June to its highest level since March. Sentiment regarding current living standards increased, while future outlook improved by the same margin. Expectations for future household income also rose.Australian consumer sentiment is mired in low territory, according the the June update of the Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey. Despite the improvement, consumer sentiment remains below its March level and still firmly in deeply pessimistic territory. The survey detail suggests positives from fiscal support measures are being negated by increased concerns about inflation and the outlook for interest rates.In Europe, Denmark is set to become the first nation to impose climate taxes on their agriculture sector. They say they are doing it in part to encourage other countries to follow. Less than 2% of Denmark's GDP comes from their rural sector, but it delivers 22% of their exports.In the UK, the sheer size of their housing crisis has been explained in a dramatic way. Since 1977, they have fallen behind other northern EU countries in building new homes, driving a severe shortage that has sent housing prices soaring and kept young Britons out of the market. A Bloomberg analysis found that the failure to keep housing production on pace has led to a massive 4.3 million missing homes - greater than the number of existing dwellings in all of London!The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.23% and down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$13 from yesterday at US$2319/oz.Oil prices are down -50 USc from yesterday at US$81/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is down -US$1 at just under US$84.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today little-changed from yesterday at just under 61.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are still at 92 AUc. Against the euro we are also still at 57.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today little-changed at 70.8.The bitcoin price starts today at US$61,577and bouncing back a partial +2.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has high at just on +/- 3.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

May CPI I would say I was very optimistic after the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released. Headline CPI increased 3.3% compared to last year, which was below the estimate and last month's reading which both stood at 3.4%. Core CPI which excludes food and energy was up 3.4%, which was below the estimate of 3.5% and last month's reading of 3.6%. This also marked the lowest reading since April 2021 when inflation concerns really began and the core CPI was at 3.0%. In March 2021 core CPI was at 1.6%. The shelter index continues to be the heavyweight moving core CPI as it was up 5.4% over last year and accounted for over two thirds of the annual increase. Many areas of the report have come back down to more normal inflation rates with areas like food at home increasing just 1% compared to last year. Food away from home was a little more challenged as that was up 4% compared to last year. I believe much of this can be attributed to the continued demand for bars and restaurants and the increased wage pressures. Although energy saw a 2% decline compared to the previous month, it was 3.7% higher than last year. This stems from the major fall in energy prices last year that I believe will make for difficult comparisons over the next few months. Two major areas that have remained problematic include admission to sporting events, which saw an increase of 21.7% compared to last year and motor vehicle insurance, which saw an increase of 20.3% compared to last year. It was positive to see a monthly decline in motor vehicle insurance of 0.1%. I believe this category will not be a problem in 2025 as much of the rate increases have now taken place. Overall, I believe this report should be supportive of a rate cut, but we will need to see more reports like this with further progress in the coming months for a cut to actually occur.  May PPI After a positive Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI) delivered more welcome news on the inflation front. May headline PPI rose 2.2% compared to last year and when comparing against the month of April there was a decline of 0.2%. Estimates were looking for a 2.5% increase in the annual number and a 0.1% increase in the monthly figure. When looking at core PPI, which excludes food and energy, the report showed and increase of just 2.3% on annual basis which was below the expectation for a 2.5% increase. These numbers are right around the Fed's 2% target and should be a positive indicator for CPI and PCE as we continue to move forward.  Private Investment Deals Investors be aware that your local broker could start hitting you up for private investment deals to fund apartment complexes somewhere around the country. The problem is the banks are starting to clamp down on just loaning money for projects on apartments that may be losers. In 2023 almost 500,000 new apartments were opened which is the most since the 80s. That growth is expected to continue and it's estimated to be around the same number in 2024. We have said before this will help bring down housing costs probably by 2025 as there are so many apartments on the market that the owners will give so many free incentives and reduce the rents just to get people in and provide the owners some cash flow. This will affect the housing market along with the CPI since shelter costs are a big part of that index and lower rents would help reduce the inflation numbers.  Apple Stock I was surprised to see Apple move more than 7% higher a day after the developer conference on Monday and close at a record high. There was a lot of hype leading up to the event as the company was anticipated to detail more about its AI strategy. I'm not sure if I saw the same conference, but I was not overly impressed by the details. Apple launched Apple Intelligence which can proofread your writing, or even rewrite it in a friendly or professional tone. It can create custom emojis called “genmoji,” search through your iPhone for specific messages from someone, summarize and transcribe phone calls or show you priority notifications. It can even tap into OpenAI's ChatGPT to provide you more detailed answers from Siri. ChatGPT is also built into systemwide writing tools. So, for example, Apple said you can create a bedtime story for a child and add images created by ChatGPT. Since the updates will only take place on the iPhone 15 Pro, Pro Max, and newly built phones, the hope is there will be a major upgrade cycle. Personally, I just don't see how these updates will get many people to move and buy a phone that will cost at least $1,000. I know new emojis is definitely not enough for me to upgrade. I also do worry about how this will impact the relationship with Google. Alphabet currently pays Apple around $20 B per year to be the default search engine on Apple devices. If more people begin to use the AI function and do less search, why would Alphabet continue to pay such a hefty fee? For a stock trading at close to 30x this year's projected earnings, there is now a lot riding on this next iPhone cycle.  What should you do with your Annuity? It is very rare that I come across someone who fully understands their annuity. Annuities can be either qualified or non-qualified and their status will determine how they are taxed. A qualified annuity means it was purchased with retirement funds while a non-qualified annuity was purchased with non-retirement funds. Generally qualified annuities are more flexible because they can be surrendered and rolled into another IRA without tax. However, if non-qualified annuities are surrendered, the entire gain becomes taxable at ordinary income rates. Because of this sometimes (but not always) it can make more sense to annuitize non-qualified annuities which is the process of converting the funds into a pension-like stream of income. This is still taxable, but the gain is spread out over time rather than realized in one year. I recently spoke with someone who is close to 80 years old and owns a non-qualified annuity. It turns out their annuity has two annuitization options. They can either withdraw 5% of the account value for the rest of their life, or they can withdraw 7% of the account value until the account value has been reached, but would also stop upon death. The issue here is in both of these cases, there is a decent chance they will not live long enough to get all their money back, let alone any growth. Another option would be to surrender the annuity to guarantee they receive all their funds back, but then they would pay a decent chunk of it in taxes. This is one example of many that illustrate if you have an annuity, make sure you also know when and how to use it because waiting will limit your options.   Stocks Discussed: Docusign (DOCU), Ferrari (RACE) and Southwest (LUV)

On this episode, Jay Barry and Phoebe White discuss the implications of the recent events in Europe on Treasury market liquidity, as well as their takeaways from the downside surprise in May CPI and their thoughts ahead for US rates and inflation markets. They are hesitant to take too much signal from the weakness in core inflation in May and still expect the first rate cut in November. Speakers: Phoebe White, Fixed Income Strategy Jay Barry, Fixed Income Strategy This podcast was recorded on 14 June 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4725284-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US equities were mixed this week as the S&P and Nasdaq posted solid gains, while the Dow and Russell 2000 were both lower. This week's upside driven in large part by another rate rally and more soft landing optimism after the May CPI and PPI reports added to the disinflation traction narrative. The June FOMC meeting ended with no change to the benchmark rate at 5.25-5.50% as expected.

Eurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/ratesWalgreens is the latest Big Name to cut prices because Americans have run out of money. As the company's prices go down, those will add even more to the disinflationary environment; and that's the bad side of smaller price changes. Today's May CPI completely backs up everything we've been seeing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWalgreens Walgreens Introduces Summer of Savingshttps://www.walgreensbootsalliance.com/news-media/press-releases/2024/walgreens-introduces-summer-savingsQuartz Amazon, Walmart, and Big Retail's race to cut priceshttps://qz.com/target-walmart-amazon-walgreens-price-cuts-consumers-1851507920Bloomberg  Big Oil's Blockbuster $114 Billion Investor Payout Is Most Everhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-07/big-oil-pays-out-record-114-billion-in-share-buybacks-and-dividendshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Ben Rains explores the factors driving the stock market to fresh highs in June following the May CPI release and the Fed's latest meeting. The episode then dives into two AI-focused stocks not named Nvidia or Super Micro Computer to consider buying on the dip in June and holding for years.  (0:40) - Stock Market Update: Why The Bulls Are In Control In June (4:20) - Should You Buy Vertiv On The Dip As An AI Investment? (10:30) - How Big Of An Impact Will Constellation Energy And Nuclear Have On AI? Podcast@Zacks.com

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger Picture The people are rejected the Biden student loan cancellations, those who are receiving the the cancellation will not notice it with the economy collapsing. Inflation is falling, right on schedule, this is all about the rate cut coming in September. Trump is all in on Bitcoin, the only way to stop CBDC. The [DS] is now building the narrative to remove Biden and replace Biden with either Michelle or Hilary. Cyber attacks are increasing world wide and countries are now worried about malware that is undetected. Russia has warships in Cuba, no missiles but the narrative is being built that Russia is going to start a war. The [DS] has been trying to destroy Trump and his businesses, they want to take his liquor license away, the only problem is that Eric Trump says that DJT is not the holder of the license. Eric for the win.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy New Polling Finds Most Americans Don't Approve of Biden's Student Loan Bailout Scam Most Americans do not approve of Joe Biden's student loan bailouts, according to new polling. It's hardly a surprise. Biden's plan favors the wealthy and is nothing more than a vote-buying scam meant to appeal to young voters, who he needs and who are abandoning him at a rapid pace. It's also important to remember that the U.S. Supreme Court told Biden that he could not do this and he did it anyway and then bragged about defying the nation's highest court. People see this. The Washington Examiner reports: Biden's loan forgiveness faces low approval Only 3 in 10 adults approve of President Joe Biden‘s student loan debt forgiveness, according to a recently released poll from the University of Chicago and the Associated Press. Four of 10 say they disapprove. Combine that with the rest of those respondents saying they are either neutral or don't know enough to say, and it is clear this move by Biden has failed.   Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1800969068343672917 https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1800869279279313194 https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1800952365731717298   How will the soft May CPI reading impact the Fed? By starting the clock on a potential September rate cut.   The Federal Reserve is seen as likely to pencil in two cuts over its last four meetings this year, which would keep the door open for a September move Source: marketwatch.com https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1800753107116478775 The Biden administration has been extraordinarily hostile to Bitcoin as well as the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. The administration launched "Operation Choke Point 2.0" whereby regulators effectively instituted new rules via press release instructing banks to stop doing business with companies in the digital asset space. Further, the White House proposed a 30 percent tax on the energy used to mine Bitcoin, which would make it unprofitable and completely uneconomical for the industry to do business in the United States. Their Energy Department also attempted to collect information regarding Bitcoin miners' energy contracts as a step towards regulating them out of business. The Justice Department even broke with long-standing Treasury Department guidance when it attempted to regulate via court filing to say that self-hosted wallets should be treated as money transmitting businesses. This is all by design. They want to effectively ban the industry.  One in four Americans own Bitcoin. That's more Americans than are over the age of 65,

Host of the "Kennedy Saves the World" podcast Kennedy joins Fox Across America With Jimmy Failla to give her take on transgender swimmer Lia Thomas failing her challenge against rules that will stop here from competing in this summer's Olympic Games in Paris. Jimmy explains why mainstream media outlets like Politico and CNN are starting to express frustration with the White House over their confusing messaging and lack of availability. Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley talks about how inflation and the border crisis are two of the most important issues people will be voting on in November. PLUS, comedian Andy Engel check in to tell Jimmy about the latest offerings from the Manhattan Comedy School. [00:00:00] WH cancels briefing after Hunter Biden guilty verdict [00:37:17] May CPI report released [00:55:53] Kennedy [01:14:05] Alarming update on suspected terrorists entering the U.S. [01:32:30] Michael Whatley [01:42:35] Andy Engel Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Join Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, for thoughts and reflections on May inflation data, along with the outcome of the FOMC meeting. Jason also speaks to the market response, and shares CIO's positioning recommendations. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Investors are preparing for a rare double feature of market-moving events with May CPI and the latest Fed decision out today. The New York Times' Jeanna Smialek discusses. Plus, Oracle says it's teaming up with Google Cloud and Microsoft, even after Q4 earnings missed estimates. CFRA's Angelo Zino recaps the quarter. And, Apple is set to retake its title as the most valuable public company in the U.S. following yesterday's stock surge. Cleo Capital's Sarah Kunst explains.

US equities finished mostly higher in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing down 9bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed up 85bps and 153bps respectively. risk-on sentiment was driven by renewed disinflation traction from a cooler than expected May CPI print, with headline flat and core up only 0.2% m/m. Little surprise from today's June FOMC meeting. Fed left rates unchanged, as expected, and updated dot plot showed just one rate cut in 2024. Oracle missed but stock rallied on strength in RPOs, upbeat 2025 guidance and new AI-driven cloud deals.

Chuck Zodda and Paul Lane react to the May CPI report that showed inflation slowing down over the month. Will the Fed make a rate cut decision at this week's meeting? How are markets pricing in future rate cuts? Todd Lutsky stops by for his weekly segment, Ask Todd, where he shares his expertise on estate planning.

Singapore equities started the morning on a strong footing, amid mixed global performance overnight. In the morning, the Straits Times Index (STI) opened 0.3 per cent higher at 3,320.48 points after 55.6 million securities changed hands in the broader market. In terms of companies to watch, we have Yoma Strategic. The firm had responded to Singapore Exchange Regulation's queries on the unusual trading activity of its shares, noting that it was unaware of any reasons for such trading.  Elsewhere, from more on China's May inflation numbers and how Apple shares hit a record high in the previous session on the back of announcements on its new AI features, more international and corporate headlines are in focus.  We will also have one last look at expectations on May's US CPI numbers and the Federal Reserve June rate decision before we get the official prints and announcements later tonight or tomorrow morning.  On Market View, The Evening Runway's finance presenter Chua Tian Tian unpacked the developments with  Carmen Lee, Head of OCBC Investment Research.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.It will be a big week for inflation and monetary policy, as the May CPI report comes out on Wednesday. Later that day, the Fed will conclude its June policy meeting with Chair Powell giving a press conference to discuss the current state of the economy and interest rates. There is very little chance of an interest rate cut this week, but Powell's commentary combined with the Fed's dot plot, which shows how each voting member feels on interest rates, inflation and other key metrics, should shine light on when we may see the first cut. Market sentiment will be reflected in the movement of treasury yields later in the week. Strong inflation will likely weaken the chances of 2024 rate cuts, and send treasury yields upward.Multifamily fundamentals were mixed last week as the leading indicators were flat or declined slightly, while rent and occupancy increased modestly. Traffic and leasing have likely peaked for the year, and I'll be focused on how far these metrics drop over the next six months as a measure of continued demand for multifamily. Rent and occupancy will rise for the next few months and then begin their decline for the remainder of the year.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

US equities finished mixed in Tuesday trading, ending near best levels and seeing the S&P and Nasdaq both set fresh record closes. Several smaller themes were in play today, but the big narrative is that the market is in waiting mode ahead of tomorrow's May CPI and June FOMC releases, though few surprises are expected from either report, and market sentiment has largely coalesced on the Fed remaining on hold until at least September. Today's $39B 10Y note auction was stronger than expected, stopping through by ~2bp and taking some pressure off yesterday's weak 3Y note auction.

Overview: Tune into this week's episode of Launch Financial as we discuss a slew of economic data as we await Fed rhetoric on the future of interest rates and May CPI report release. If you have any questions on updating your June financial planning checklist, email info@shermanwealth.com. 

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the EU parliamentary election jolt has everyone's attention.But first in the US, in the four months December to March, consumer inflation expectations held steady at 3%. Then in April they rose 3.3%, and this latest NY Fed survey shows them easing somewhat to 3.2%. They were unchanged at the three-year horizon at 2.8%, and increased at the five-year horizon to 3.0% from 2.8%. So its a mixed picture where these expectations are holding higher than where they need to be.In a well supported 3 year US Treasury bond auction (US$140 bln was bid for the US$58 bln available), the median yield achieved was 4.59%, and that was marginally higher than the 4.55% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Wall Street is in a bit of a lull at present as they await the combination of the May CPI result and the US Fed monetary policy meeting outcomes.In Canada, consumer sentiment is beginning to improve, especially after their central bank made a cut to its official interest rate last weekIn Europe, like many others, markets are recoiling at the EU parliamentary election results. And even more so, 'surprised' by the French reaction of calling a snap national election. But to understand both, you need to know that the EU parliamentary election featured low turnouts, some very low. That allowed motivated extreme parties to make some spectacular headline gains. But it wasn't all one-way traffic. Macron is gambling that a normal turnout in national elections will overwhelm the right-wing votes with more normal voting patterns as voters who sat out the EU version are 'shocked' into returning. We'll see.In Australia, major supermarket Coles has imposed limits of how many eggs customers can buy after hundreds of thousands of chickens have been destroyed after bird flu was found at five large poultry farms. Prices are likely reflect these shortages, although the normal 'don't panic' notices have been issued.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.47% and and up +4 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today back up +US$20 from yesterday at US$2313/oz.Oil prices have risen +US$2.50 from yesterday and are now at just on US$77.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$81.50/bbl. So they are back to week-ago levels.The Kiwi dollar starts today at just on 61.2 USc and up less than +¼c since this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are +¼c firmer at 56.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still at 70.8, and up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$70,043 and up +0.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has still been low at just on +/- 0.7%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the IMF is starting to worry that the US expansion could become unsustainable unless it is matched by national productivity gains.But first we should note that it is a public holiday in Australia today.However all eyes this week will be on Thursday (NZT) when the US Fed will opine on where they think inflation is going and their expected policy rate track. This will be in their dot-plot. Earlier in the same day, the US releases its May CPI data, a crucial piece of their puzzle. US PPI data comes on Friday.But China also releases its CPI data this week, on Wednesday, followed on Thursday by their important new yuan loans data.Then Japan will weigh in on Friday with its interest rate policy update.But over the weekend in the US, markets were anticipating a 'good' rise in non-farm payroll jobs of +185,000. But in fact this headline number was up +272,000. Even more impressive, hourly pay was up +5.3% from a year ago, weekly wages up +5.6% on the same basis.But as regular listeners know, we also look at the 'actual' data. There are now +917,000 more people on employer payrolls in May than in April. Overall there are now 161.3 mln people employed, although that is little-changed from April. So all the gain is a shift from the unincorporated self-employed on to employer payrolls. That may be why the pay gains are well above inflation.Whatever way you slice it, it is a pretty good result, and markets are assuming the Fed will look at this and see pressures that are unlikely to quell inflation. The bond and FX markets reacted, but the equity market went quiet at unchanged levels (although they may argue this gain was already priced in).The March rise in American consumer debt levels was a pretty modest +US$6.3 bln from the prior month and April was expected to catch-up with a +US$11 bln but still-modest rise. But in the event, April consumer debt levels only rose +US$6.4 bln again, up just +1.5% from a year ago. There is no evidence here that Americans are stretching themselves further with additional debt obligations.Meanwhile American household net worth rose +3.3% or +US$5.1 tln to more than US$160 tln at the end of March 2024 from December 2023. The value of household equity holdings increased +US$3.8 tln, while the value of real estate held by households rose by +US$900 bln. In complete contrast, American household liabilities were up only +US$100 bln to US$20.6 tln. There is a huge amount of overall resilience here. (We are not suggesting this is evenly spread, because clearly it isn't.)Canada also released labour market data over the weekend. Their payrolls rose +27,000 and more than the +22,000 expected. But it was all part-time jobs that rose and by +62,000, and full-time jobs shrank -36,000. Their jobless rate rose to 6.2%. They are probably not happy with this outcome but at least their central bank has cut its official interest rate and that may bring some relief to employment in the rest of 2024.Perhaps proving important context to the zooming container freight rates, exports from China soared +7.6% year-on-year in May and beating market expectations of a +6% rise. It was also up from a +1.5% rise in the previous month. It's the steepest rise in outbound shipments since January, fueled by a lower base from last year and sustained overseas demand. The big export destinations were ASEAN countries (+9.7%) and South America, especially Brazil (+26%). Elsewhere little-change or decreases. China's imports were weak however, virtually unchanged from a weak May a year ago.China's foreign exchange reserves rose to US$3.23 tln in May from US$3.2 tln in April and above market forecasts. Their gold reserves were unchanged at 72.8 mln troy ounces, an unusual pause because they had risen for 18 consecutive months. But the rise in the gold price saw the value of their holdings rose to almost US$171 bln.In India, their central bank held its policy rate unchanged at 6.5% and said inflation's pressure at 4.85% is not changing much. Their policy target is a very generous 2%-6%. But food prices are rising and were up +8.7% in April from a year ago. Given their heat and water stress levels, food price pressure is an economic consequence they will struggle with.In the EU, their GDP rose its most in Q1-2024 since Q3-2022, but to be fair the annual growth from a year ago was only +0.5% for the EU, slightly less for the Euro Area (+0.4%).The IMF is pointing out that growth without sufficient productivity improvement is a problem for the world's financial stability, especially when the largest economies drag the chain on productivity. They seem to be pointing to the US on this, and that their expansions won't be sustainable without the commensurate improvements in productivity.World food prices were up only marginally in May but are still running below the levels of each of the past three years. Global food security seems ok and at prices that are affordable (even if there are pockets of real stress and distress). Dairy prices are one area prices are rising and they have been for eight straight months. Meat prices are low and relatively stable.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.43% and down -1 bp from Saturday after the US non-farm payrolls surprise. The price of gold will start today down -US$10 from Saturday at US$2293/oz and down -US$83 from Friday.Oil prices have been retreating slightly over the weekend and are now at just on US$75/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just under US$79.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were +$2 higher back then.The Kiwi dollar starts today at just on 61 USc and little changed from Saturday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are marginally softer at 56.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still at 70.6, and also little-changed from this time last week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$69,632 and up +0.9% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been very low at just on +/- 0.4%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again  tomorrow.

ASX 200 fell another 101 points to 7666 (-1.3%) in lacklustre trade compounded by nasty CPI number that put rate rises back on the cards. Banks were smacked down, with ANZ down 2.5% and the Big Bank Basket down to $20587 (-1.9%). MQG smashed 1.3% and insurers off with IAG in a class action down 3.1%. ASX fell 1.5%, with fund managers under pressure. REITs also feeling the pain, SGP off 1.5% and SCG down 2.5%. Industrials too under pressure, WES continuing to slide down another 1.1% with WOW and COL falling between 1.3-2%. Tech slipped, and retail down again. JBH off 1.5%, and ALL falling 3.0% despite a bullish report from Macquarie. In resources, crunch day for BHP with its Anglo bid in the UK. The stock held firm. FMG down 3.6%, and RIO sold down 1.5% as iron ore fell for the third day in Asia. Base metals mixed, lithium escaping the wrath and gold miners continued to buck the negativity. Oil and gas stocks down with uranium mixed. In corporate news, IAG facing a class action over pricing for loyal customers, NWS unveiled significant changes falling 0.3%, LLC sold a US business to kick off its restructure, down 2.4%. In economic news, CPI came in hotter than expected and shelved any hopes for a quick rate cut. Asian markets lower, Japan down 1.0%, China up 0.1% and HK down 1.9%. 10Y yields spiked to 4.40% on the CPI news. AUD steady. BHP asks for more time. Again.Dow Futures down 174 points. NASDAQ Futures down 81 points. Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert market insights and manage your investments with confidence.Ready to invest in yourself? Join the Marcus Today community.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of a raft of strong first-tier US data. Their expansion cycle isn't done yet.New orders for American factory durable goods jumped +1.7% month-on-month in May, following an upwardly revised +1.2% rise in April and easily beating market expectations of a -1% decline. This is the third straight month of rising durable goods orders, led by a surge in orders for aircraft and motor vehicles. Year-on-year they are up +7.3% so a real, after inflation gain now. Capital goods order growth was strong, up +15%. Boardrooms have been bullish, it seems.Sales of new houses were very strong in May too, up a full +20% from year ago levels, although to be fair they weren't flash a year ago. These rises matches rising recent building consent data.Not so strong was last week's retail sales data. On a same-store basis it rose only +0.5% from year-ago levels and much lower than inflations bite.But that hasn't held back rising consumer sentiment. The latest survey from the widely-watched Conference Board was noticeably brighter, rising to its highest since January 2022. It was led by younger people, under 35 years.Yesterday we noted the dour Texas factory survey. But that isn't indicative of all regions. Today, the Richmond Fed's factory survey came in much less negative in June than May, driven by a better new order situation. But to be fair, output levels remained lowish in June.The Dallas Fed released its services survey for June today, and the troubling factory survey there is matched by a downbeat one in their services and retail sectors.In Canada, falling energy costs allowed their May CPI inflation to fall to 3.4% from 4.4% in the previous month, the lowest since June 2021 but it was in line with market expectations. And the result was broadly in line with their central bank's baseline scenario that inflation will slow to the 3% mark by the next month or two. By getting close to that official assumption it does raise doubts about the rate hikes left in its tightening campaign.In China, with a spreading ban on commentary Beijing doesn't like, including of respected commentators on the independent Caixin platform, it is becoming harder to discern what is going on in their economy. But the bans reinforce the idea that the trends are not positive.In Europe, ECB President Lagarde was talking overnight and said they will raise rates again in July, and they have much more work to to to tame inflation. She noted that wage growth is now pressuring inflation, and they are entering a second stage - first energy push, now wage-push - and this set to linger for some time. This was an unusually direct set of signals from Lagarde. And the IMF is also worried about how long it is taking Europe to get on top of its inflation problem.In Australia, despite their slowdown, their government surplus is now expected to rise, according to their Treasurer. The budget surplus for this financial year will be “significantly” higher than the AU$4+ bln forecast last month, thanks to revenue from their still expanding labour market, sustained high prices for commodities, and company profits. Again, it is hard to have a recession when the jobless rate is low.The UST 10yr yield will start today at 3.77% and up +5 bps. The price of gold will start today at US$1912/oz and that's down -US$13/oz from yesterday.And oil prices are -US$2 lower from yesterday to now be just under US$68/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just under US$72.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 61.7 USc and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 92.3 AUc. Against the euro we are softer at 56.3 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now just on 70 and down a mere -10 bps since this time yesterday.The bitcoin price has risen from this time yesterday and now is at US$30,722 which is a +2.1% gain. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at just under +/- 1.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

The main event this week is Australia's monthly CPI data out Wednesday. The last reading of 6.8% in April surprised the market, up from 6.3% in March, which was the lowest reading in 10 months, significantly exceeding market expectations of 6.4%, which led to a 25bps rate hike by the RBA in June. May CPI consensus at 6.1%. Also, on the domestic front, retail sales data out Thursday and housing permit data out Friday will provide some insight into the broader economy and the health of the housing market. Powell speech Thursday and Eurozone CPI data Friday.Australian market to open lower. SPI futures down 16 points (-0.23%) to 7043 over the weekend.Last week: The ASX 200 fell 150 points (-2.1%). Defensive stocks did well, CSL +1.49% recovering from its recent sell-off from the company's profit warning, WOW +3.21%, RMD +1.58%, and TWE +0.35%. Travel stocks were hammered QAN -6.77%, FLT -12.35%, CTD -9.65% and WEB -5.96%. Tech sector also down with XRO falling -4.6%. Gold fell, and the energy sector was lower following the decline in oil prices.Global equities last week: US markets snap six-week winning streak. Dow Jones down 572 points (-1.67%), S&P 500 down 1.4%, and the NASDAQ down 1.44% as recession fears remerge triggered by tight monetary policy and pressuring crude oil prices. European markets were also down, with the STOXX 600 off 2.93%, FTSE -2.37%, and DAX -3.23%, respectively.Gold finished 0.41% higher, weighed by hawkish comments from the fed.Copper fell 3.64% as hawkish fed comments and a stronger USD sent prices down.Nickel +0.22% Aluminium -2.11% Zinc -2.07%, Lead -2.07%, Tin -2.44%.WTI Crude fell 0.45% and Brent fell 0.44% on concerns of global economic growth.10-year yield: US 3.74%, Australia 3.94%, and Germany 2.37%.Get up to speed with Henry Jennings' Pre-Market Podcast.Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.Make life simple. Invest with Marcus Today.

There is the mainstream and market perception of what going on in the economy and financial system. And then there's the underlying economic reality. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about the growing divergence between the two in the context of the June Federal Reserve meeting and the latest CPI data. You can visit the show notes page here: bit.ly/3N4b1xS Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week's economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news. TOPICS DISCUSSED -The mainstream economic model is flawed -Inflation myths -What the mainstream thinks will happen -The economic realities -May CPI data breakdown -The Fed pauses rate hikes -Powell's hot air

For today's COBT, we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend and award-winning columnist Liam Denning. Liam is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering the energy sector and was previously with the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times. He has nearly twenty years of experience covering energy and has experience in energy investment banking and consulting. We were thrilled to connect with Liam to discuss his recent article, “Hiding an Army at the Top of the World.” The article touches on several timely and important factors including military forces, geopolitics, the climate, the potential for greater access to Arctic trade routes, and oil and gas as well as broader resources development in the region. Liam first provides background on how he got involved with the Army and the interesting connection he formed with a war photographer interested in the Arctic. For the story, the two partnered to provide on-the-ground reporting on the Army's activities in Alaska. We discuss the increasing accessibility of the Arctic due to warming and the related geopolitical implications, Liam's experience visiting the US Army's Northern Warfare Training Center in Alaska, and the challenges of operating in the harsh Arctic environment. We also cover the recent debates around oil and gas development in Alaska in light of Russia's aggressive plans in the Arctic, the Chinese perspective and the involvement of other countries in the Arctic including Norway, Finland, and Canada. Liam shares his perspective on the changes he's witnessed in the oil and gas industry over the past fifteen years and the importance of adapting to maintain relevance and his view on the role of major oil companies in the energy transition. It was a fascinating conversation and we want to thank Liam for joining us. To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted that May CPI printed slightly below consensus while core CPI printed slightly above consensus. He noted traders will be focused on the Wednesday morning PPI print and afternoon FOMC Rate Decision, where odds favor the FED temporarily pausing rate hikes. He then flagged that Saudi's announcement last week of a 1mmbpd crude oil production cut (set for July) has not been enough to stabilize crude oil. He noted several crosscurrents that are influencing this crude oil volatility, all of which are challenging whether this current weakness is physical or financial related. He wrapped by noting Shell's Capital Markets Day on Wednesday will be a focus for investors as the first formal opportunity for Shell's new management to lay out their end of decade vision, which could provide a roadmap to narrowing the 2-3 multiple point valuation discount to the US oil majors. Arjun Murti built on some of Mike's themes and highlighted the difference in energy perspectives between the UK, Europe, the US, and the rest of the world. He also teed up the discussion of the role of the oil and gas industry outside of its core, prepping us for our discussion with Liam. We are eager to see what Liam writes next and hope you find this topic as interesting as we do. Thanks to you all!

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3N5Vy0n So the month of May CPI report came out this morning, and xxxxxxx Those who continue to be “frustrated” by the reasonable resilience of the economy in the face of the Fed's desire to break it are up against a few different things. (1) The utter weirdness of believing an economy must be broken to beat inflation. It is not true, and it has never been true. (2) The extent to which many corporate borrowers (both high yield and investment grade) extended the maturities of their borrowings during the COVID zero-interest rate period. This means companies are not impacted by higher rates where they don't have loans resetting at higher rates. Of course, this is not true for all but it has been true for many. (3) How incredibly unnecessary it is to use high rates to defeat inflation when monetary policy was not the primary cause of the inflation to begin with. The issues that primarily caused the inflation of 2021/22 were rectified in the natural course of events (supply chain, labor shortage, reopening, etc.) and no the cause and effect mechanisms are all off in the way the Fed is approaching this. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

With Wednesday's Fed interest rate decision on Wall Street's radar, Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber led off the program with a breakdown of the May CPI report, which shows consumer inflation cooled to its lowest annual rate in two years. The news lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh 52-week highs. Jim explained why he believes people are making more money in this market than he has seen "in maybe...twelve years." The anchors also discussed Oracle shares hitting a new record high after the company reported a quarterly beat, helped by strong cloud growth and orders from AI customers. Also in focus: Apple downgraded by UBS to “Neutral” after posting a record closing high, Tesla aims for a 13-day win streak, plus a "Faber Report" on the FTC vs. the Microsoft-Activision merger deal. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

Jim Cramer and Jeff Marks break down the U.S. Consumer Price Index report out this morning and how it may be impacting the market. Become a CNBC Investing Club member to go behind the scenes with Jim Cramer and Jeff Marks as they talk candidly about the market's biggest headlines. Signup here: cnbc.com/morningtake  CNBC Investing Club Disclaimer

The Federal Reserve kicks off its latest policy meeting today ahead of a busy day on Wall Street, with May CPI out this morning. The New York Times' Jeanna Smialek breaks down her expectations. Plus, oil prices are trying to recover some of yesterday's big losses as worries about demand growth in China and rising supplies in Russia offset the boost in prices. Bank of America's Francisco Blanch discusses the latest. And, regulators and anti-trust watch dogs are stepping up their assault on big tech. BNP Paribas Exane's Stefan Slowinski breaks down what this means for the sector.

US equities finished higher in Tuesday trading, having stayed in largely the same range throughout the session. The CPI is out of the way while the Fed is on tap for tomorrow, with the Fed expected to maintain the fed funds target range at 5.0-5.25% at the June FOMC meeting. May CPI was largely in line with expectations with y/y headline growth the slowest since April of 2021.

Overview: Tune into this week's episode of Launch Financial as we discsus May CPI data, which slowed to the lowest levels since 2021, which will impact the Federal Reserve's decision on the future of interest rates at thier meeting tomorrow. Show Notes:

Maggie Lake is joined by Dale Pinkert, trading coach at TradeGateHub, to discuss whether the ongoing bull run in stocks can sustain momentum. Is it time for investors to secure profits ahead of tomorrow's May CPI report and the Fed's interest rate decision? You can find more of Dale's work here:  https://www.youtube.com/@TradeGateHub Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news financial markets are on tenterhooks for the Thursday US Fed rate decision.In the meantime, US consumer inflation expectations over the next year eased in May, down to 4.1% and the lowest since March 2021 more than two years ago. Expectations for inflation for longer term periods however rose slightly. The rises were minor, but represent an upturn from previous surveys. Labour market expectations were mixed with expected earnings growth declining, but unemployment expectations and perceived job loss risk improving.This expectation data comes ahead of tonight's May CPI data for the US, and analysts also see it coming in at 4.1% which would be a good drop from 4.9% in April.And markets are expecting the Fed to pause its rate hike track when they deliver their latest decisions on Thursday, thinking they have inflation coming down quickly now and have done enough to keep that retreat locked in.The US Government released its monthly Budget statement for May, and this came in almost exactly as expected. But it is on track for a slightly larger deficit this year than last, this year about -8% of GDP.In China, there are more indications of their demographic malaise. The number of marriages registered last year fell for the ninth consecutive year to the lowest since 1986, when the figure started to be recorded. Only 6.8 million couples registered marriages in 2022, down -10.5% from the previous year and more than -49% lower than the peak of 13.5 million in 2013.Japan's producer prices fell in May from April, only the third such drop in the past two years, and the steepest monthly drop (-0.7%) since 2016 (pandemic excluded).Japanese machine tool orders weren't flash in May, unfortunately, down -22% from the same month a year ago. Orders from both local and export sources were equally weak.The Bank of Japan also updates its monetary policy this week, on Friday.India's CPI inflation rate rose slower, and by 4.25% in May from 4.7% in the previous month, the lowest in two years and lower than market forecasts of 4.4%. Food prices eased the most, with most key categories falling rather sharply.April industrial production in India came in +4.2% above year-ago levels but it was quite a fall-off from the strong March levels.The UST 10yr yield will start today at 3.75%, up +3 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$5 at US$1956/oz.And oil prices have fallen -US$3 from yesterday to now be just under US$67.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just under US$72/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today still little-changed at 61.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are almost -½c lower from yesterday at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are softer but less so at 56.9 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 69.3 and little-changed.The bitcoin price is again a little lower since this time yesterday at US$25,807, down -0.7%. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at just on +/- 1.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

US equities stronger in an extremely quiet week, with the market's attention pulled ahead to next week's May CPI report and the June FOMC meeting decision.

DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau cover the June 5-9 results for stocks, including a rebound for regional banks (2:41); fixed income (4:11), a bit of pressure on duration, gains for emerging market debt and bank loans; commodities, their first positive week in about two months (8:50). It was a quiet week for macro news (13:29). One of the few notable prints was a sluggish ISM Services PMI report. The May survey came in at a barely expansionary 50.3 vs. a consensus expectation of 52.4. Samuel Lau notes that the Services PMI has been trending lower in recent months. Next week promises a busier news calendar (16:40). With the futures market pricing 30-70 odds of a hike or pause in the federal funds rate, Jeff Mayberry notes the May CPI report due Tuesday June 13 will likely be a market-moving event. After the release of the May PPI on Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee, the rate-setting body of the Federal Reserve, meets.

It’s listener question time! A few weeks ago, Kai Ryssdal said consumers who want to help slow our inflated economy should stop spending money. But now one of our listeners wants to know if there’s anything they can do with their disposable income that helps the economy but is also fun. We offer some advice. Plus, the hosts take more of your questions on what role the dark web might play in a post-Roe era, and more than one question about gas prices! Here’s everything we talked about today: “What the end of Roe v. Wade means for access to abortion pills” from NBC News “With Roe overturned, tech companies will have to weigh big data questions” from Marketplace “Tech companies may surrender abortion-related data” from Axios “5 key takeaways on inflation from the May CPI report” from The Brookings Institution “Biden asks companies “setting those gas prices” to lower them. Can they?” from Marketplace “Biden wants a gas tax holiday. Some economists say that’s a bad idea” from NPR If you have a question about business, tech and the economy, send it our way. We’re at makemesmart@marketplace.org. You can also leave us a voice message at (508) 827-6278 or (508) U-B-SMART. Your donation powers the journalism you rely on. Give today to support “Make Me Smart.”

It’s listener question time! A few weeks ago, Kai Ryssdal said consumers who want to help slow our inflated economy should stop spending money. But now one of our listeners wants to know if there’s anything they can do with their disposable income that helps the economy but is also fun. We offer some advice. Plus, the hosts take more of your questions on what role the dark web might play in a post-Roe era, and more than one question about gas prices! Here’s everything we talked about today: “What the end of Roe v. Wade means for access to abortion pills” from NBC News “With Roe overturned, tech companies will have to weigh big data questions” from Marketplace “Tech companies may surrender abortion-related data” from Axios “5 key takeaways on inflation from the May CPI report” from The Brookings Institution “Biden asks companies “setting those gas prices” to lower them. Can they?” from Marketplace “Biden wants a gas tax holiday. Some economists say that’s a bad idea” from NPR If you have a question about business, tech and the economy, send it our way. We’re at makemesmart@marketplace.org. You can also leave us a voice message at (508) 827-6278 or (508) U-B-SMART. Your donation powers the journalism you rely on. Give today to support “Make Me Smart.”

US equity futures are indicating a weak open as of 05:00 ET, following weak trading in both Asian and early European markets. Fed Chair Powell is due to speak at a Congressional testimony today, with expectations he is likely to be grilled regarding his response to inflation. The UK's May CPI hit a fresh record high. Companies Mentioned: Alibaba, Ant, China Evergrande

Will the Fed's rate hike help keep a recession at bay? On this episode, Tony, John, and Brendan are joined by HPS Partner Matt McDonald and SW4's Brai Odion-Esene to talk about the Fed's "archaic" blackout period rule, the May CPI index and what impact the Fed's rate hike might have on preventing a recession. Additionally, the group discusses the recent actions of other central banks including the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of Japan.Follow Brai Odion-Esene on Twitter.

US equities sharply lower this week with the S&P 500 posting its worst weekly performance since March of 2020. The Fed hiked its benchmark interest rate by 75 bps on Wednesday, as had quickly become expected following last week's hotter-than-expected May CPI print and some telegraphing by the press early in the week. Skepticism around the central bank's ability to engineer a soft landing continues to rise, with more strategists pointing to downside risk to earnings estimates and increasing scrutiny on the health of the consumer. Crypto takes a bath, with Bitcoin falling nearly 30% on the week.

Today I'm sharing key takeaways from the May inflation (CPI) report. I'm also sharing: What "shadow inflation" is (and why you should ignore it) Why inflation is high What retirement investors can do in response Over age 50? Need retirement + tax planning help? 

Though it's generating buzz, the May CPI report reflects the same patterns we've seen for months: that our inflation issues are supply-side problems and not a result of too much demand.  

Undoubtedly, investors face a remarkably complex economic environment intensified by historically dismal market performance – four-decade high inflation, the 10-year Treasury yield rapidly climbing to levels not seen since 2011 (3.36% at close), the S&P 500 down more than 20% on the year, and perhaps most importantly, balanced account drawdowns averaging 16-17% year to date. The stress pervading markets saw little reprieve from the May CPI print which showed accelerating inflation rather than confirming a peak in prices that market participants had hoped for. On this episode, Phil breaks down the various inflation measures, explaining how core metrics can foreshadow further rising prices, but headline categories, if not contained, have the potential to damage economic growth going forward. Energy prices, particularly gasoline, are the key, and a decline in the cost of fossil fuels and related products either through naturally waning or actively suppressed demand appears requisite for prices to fall. Listen in to hear why Phil sees a strong American consumer with rising wages and low unemployment will avoid a deep recession if the economy gets there at all.

The Federal Reserve may have to choose between taming inflation and risking recession following last week's faster-than-expected May CPI reading.

The May CPI data confirmed our worst fears. The FOMC has lost complete control of inflation and is on track to bring on an economic winter. The May CPI not only came in hot from the previous month but accelerated versus the expectation inflation has peaked. The data puts the idea of Peak Inflation to rest and we don't think this is the end of the story. WTI is on the rise and driving systemic inflation throughout the system. If anything, consumers should expect to see prices continue to rise at a high-single-digit rate well into the end of the year.Last week, the S&P 500 confirmed a full reversal in the market. The index fell from the key resistance level of 4,100 and sed more than 6.5% for the period. The next target for support is 4,900, if this level does not hold up there is a very high probability the S&P 500 will see the 2,800 level before it sets a new all-time high.

Hear thoughts on the May CPI print and other macro data points of interest from the past week, along with a preview of the June FOMC meeting. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office.

Wall Street is buzzing as investors await the May CPI report, due later this morning, with price gains remaining at their highest level in 40 years. Sarah House of Wells Fargo tells us what to expect from the report. Plus, stocks in China are rising today, including tech stocks like Alibaba, Meituan, and NetEase. Brendan Ahern of KraneShares, shares what is driving the spike in these stocks. And, despite sky-high inflation, Janet Yellen says that a recession is not likely in the works. Dan Very of Palisade Capital Management gives his thoughts on the strength of the economy.

US equities sharply lower this week, with Friday's hotter-than-expected May CPI report knocking the legs out from under the recent rally and raising fears of a more-hawkish Fed and a possible recession ahead.

The crude oil price remains elevated. "I got out of the crude oil Futures (/CL) position. There is a lot of Iranian crude oil sitting in storage which has affected the price," says Bob Iaccino. How is crude oil related to the overall inflation as May CPI data will be released tomorrow? Iaccino provides his take on inflation in the consumer services space.

Stocks are edging lower ahead of a crucial reading for May CPI that could challenge the market's theory on 'peak inflation' in the world's biggest economy.

US equities sharply lower Thursday, ending at session lows. The global monetary policy shift remained the big story today with hawkish takeaways from the ECB meeting driving expectations for more aggressive near-term tightening and putting upward pressure on bond yields. Also a mixed bag of headlines from China, with more signs Beijing is dialing down its crackdown on tech, but zero-Covid policy concerns back in focus. All eyes now on tomorrow's May CPI print.

Record high gas prices and surging energy costs could keep inflation levels elevated over the coming months as stocks look cautiously to tomorrow's crucial May CPI reading.

Offshore / Gold a flat week after the previous weeks sell-off / S&P500 and Nasdaq back at all-time highs after the previous week's aggressive sell-off / Global shipping remains under severe pressure as Chinese port shut after a covid-19 outbreak / US gets an infrastructure bill, but maybe not. It's messy Local / Omnia results paid special dividend and SARS dispute / Growthpoint trading update / Old Mutual to spin off third of their Nedbank holding / May CPI 5.2% with core inflation at 3.1% / +50s can register for vaccines from Thursday / Absa's Q2 2021 Manufacturing Survey shows rising manufacturer confidence

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news interest rates are on the move up again.The closely-watched US Fed decision held all settings unchanged but there was change in their forward view. Overall, they now expect expect two rate increases by the end of 2023, an earlier date than previously indicated. Thirteen of 18 officials favoured at least one rate increase by the end of 2023, versus seven in March. Eleven officials saw at least two hikes by the end of that year. As telling, seven of them saw a move as early as 2022, up from four.The US dollar rose on the release of these results. The UST 10yr bond yield also rose.US housing starts stayed high in May and the April data was revised up. Building permits as an indication of the future pipeline, also stayed high. But they now say much more housing will be required "after decades of underinvestment". And that means a huge surge in the demand for timber.In Canada, their May CPI inflation level came in higher than expected and is now running at 3.6% pa. That is its highest in ten years. Every component (and not just oil) contributed to this rise.The growth of China's industrial production is still high but is tailing off now and at +8.8% year-on-year it came in lower than expected. Compared with May 2019, the latest data is +6.6% higher (+3.3% average per year) which in the Chinese context is somewhat underwhelming.The growth of electricity production in China was up to +12.6% from May 2019, or an average gain per year of about +6.3%. That seems to be much faster than industrial production so it is households that are using much more (or perhaps industry is getting quickly less efficient?).Chinese retail sales posted a good year-on-year gain of +12.3%, and from May 2019 these are up +9.3% and also a slowing in the long run.China is ramping up its effort to control the rises in international commodity prices that is hurting it. Their National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration said overnight it will release state stockpiles of metals including copper, aluminium and zinc. Prices for these commodities fell in response on international markets. At the same time, Beijing has been advising SOE buyers to "control risks and limit their exposure to overseas commodities".The iron ore price however hasn't yet adjusted lower.China is pulling back at an increasing rate in its investment in international coal field development.Wall Street is slipping today after the Fed announcement with the S&P500 down -0.4% in afternoon trade. Higher interest rates threaten the capitalisation rates of equity prices. The UST 10yr yield starts today up +6 bps at 1.56%. The price of gold starts today at US$1839/oz which is down -US$18 from this time yesterday.Oil prices are softish at just under US$72/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is under US$73.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar opens today at 70.7 USc and down -¾c since this time yesterday on the US Fed reaction. Against the Australian dollar we are softish at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also softish at 58.7 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at 72.8 and a new two month low.The bitcoin price is now at US$38,943 and down -3.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been high at +/- 3.7%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

The benchmark indices eye a tepid start to the day today amid a host of mixed cues. While supportive global market sentiment and positive news flow around coronavirus cases are likely to provide comfort to the market bulls, the CPI inflation print for May came as a shocker for investors. May CPI inflation at 6.3 per cent was not only above Bloomberg's estimates of 5.4 per cent but also moved beyond MPC's target band for the first time since November. High and sticky inflation is a cause of worry, despite the low industrial capacity utilisation, analysts cautioned. Investor focus will now turn to Federal Reserve's two-day meeting which kicks off today and any shift in the central bank's dovish rhetoric could upend the equity markets. Analysts advise adopting a bullish yet cautious view on the market and maintaining a stock-specific trading approach.  At 7.40 am, SGX Nifty was flat at 15,836. In an overnight session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq eked out record high finishes, despite most traders being focused on this week's Federal Reserve meeting and not on adding to existing positions. Investors are seeking new cues from the central bank on its inflation outlook after recent data indicated the U.S. economy is regaining momentum but not overheating. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.25%, the S&P 500 gained 0.18% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.74%. Asian stocks pushed higher after their US peers closed at a record. Japan's Topix index and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index added 0.3% each while South Korea's Kospi index was little changed. Elsewhere, crude oil edged to over two-year high on optimism that economic reopenings will boost summer demand in the US and Europe. Brent crude was up by 0.6%, at $73.29 a barrel. Now, a look at the stock-specific triggers that are likely to guide the market today Jubilant FoodWorks, Power Finance Corporation, LIC Housing Finance, Easy Trip Planners and Whirlpool of India are among 45 companies slated to post their quarterly numbers today. Coal India reported a marginal 1.1 per cent YoY decline in its consolidated profit at Rs 4,586.78 crore for the quarter ended March 2021 on the back of lower sales. SBI Cards and Payment Services on Monday said it has raised Rs 500 crore by issuing bonds. JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals on Monday reported a two-fold jump in consolidated net profit to Rs 100.81 crore for the quarter ended March 2021 on account of robust sales. Lastly, an update on the primary market. The initial public offer of Shyam Metalics and Energy was subscribed 1.23 times on the first day of subscription on Monday. Meanwhile, public offer by Sona BLW Precision Forgings was subscribed 11 per cent.

In Today's Episode Eric and Brandon breakdown May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The guys discuss some of the industries with the biggest fluctuations and some real world experiences they have seen recently.   What You'll Get Out of Today's Show Breakdown of what the CPI report is The difference between the month-to-month and annual inflation percentages Industries with the biggest fluctuations Vehicles Travel Etc. Real world examples of how inflation is impacting certain industries and how it's impacting the consumers Links Mentioned in This Episode   bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf   ignitiontowealth.com/resources   ignitiontowealth.com/tools   ignitiontowealth.com   If You Want to Support Ignition to Wealth Sign up for our email list   Subscribe to the podcast    Leave us a 5 star rating and written review

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news both benchmark interest rates and equity prices are on the move higher this morning.Although all eyes are firmly on the Thursday (NZT) US Federal Reserve meeting, with some positive but nervous energy in anticipation, there have been some other releases worth noting.US inflation expectations came in sharply higher at 4% in one year which is actually a series high for this survey which started in 2013. If you are older, poorer, or live in the economically booming South, your expectation of much higher prices ahead are even greater. The same survey shows labour market expectations improved, with unemployment and the probability of losing one's job both reaching series lows. The actual May CPI came in at 5.0% so consumers don't see much moderating and certainly not in the way economists expect from the Fed.In India their May inflation surged +6.3% and above the upper band of their central bank's policy comfort zone. The rises in India were broad-based and driven by their recent lockdowns. But normal monsoons and an eventual, gradual easing of their lockdowns are expected to stabilise prices somewhat. A key aspect is food price inflation, which was up +5.2% year-on-year.Japan has reported a good +16% rise in industrial production in April from the same month a year ago, but that is pandemic-distorted. Compared with April 2019, they are still -2.2% behindCanada factory sales were also reported overnight, also for April, and they weren't flash with a -2.1% decline rate month-on-month. Year-on-year these are also quite distorted, but compared to April 2019 they were -1.8% lower, so nothing encouraging here.There other interesting data was from China, where May inbound foreign direct investment continued its strong run, up by more than a third in a year.Australia is expected to sign an in-principal "free trade deal" with the UK later today. While a lot of detail will have to be worked through, it will likely involve a timetable for more access for Aussie rural exports into the UK - if the UK concedes to Australia its use of hormones in livestock production.The UST 10yr yield starts today up +5 bps at 1.50%. The price of gold starts today at US$1863/oz which is down -US$15 from this time yesterday.Oil prices are unchanged overnight at US$70.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still just on US$72.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar opens today at 71.4 USc and inching back up overnight. Against the Australian dollar we are also firmish at 92.6 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 58.9 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at 73.2 and still near its two month low.The bitcoin price is now at US$40,223 and up +7.6% from this time yesterday, and mainly on Elon Musk's references. Volatility in the past 24 hours is back as extreme at +/- 5.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

One of the most iconic brands in financial television returns for today's issues and today's world. This edition of Wall Street Week features David Westin's interviews with Willett Advisors Chairman & CEO Steve Rattner, Goldman Sachs Asset Management Co-Head of Fundamental Equity Katie Koch, Financial Times Editorial Board Chair Gillian Tett, Bessemer Venture Partners Partner Tess Hatch, and Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers. The conversations highlight inflation concerns fueled by the May CPI report, the implications of meme stocks on Wall Street, and the nuances of investing in space. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Welcome to the second episode of The Compound & Friends, a new podcast from your favorite financial and investing commentators. This week, Michael Batnick, Sam Ro, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss: Bitcoin Miami, circuit breakers, when stocks become unrate-able, rising wages, Chipotle price hike, May CPI, newspapers, and more!Follow Michael's blog at theirrelevantinvestor.comFollow Sam at axios.com/signup/marketsFollow Josh's blog at thereformedbroker.comObviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Everybody was waiting for the big event: the CPI Report.Here's what is happening in the markets today, Thursday, June 10th.Yesterday, stocks continued to trade within a tight range, with all three major indexes ending the day within 0.5% of Tuesday's closing levels.Economists expect the May CPI report to show prices up 4.7% year over year after April's increase of 4.2%. The core rate of inflation, excluding food and energy, is expected to jump 3.5% on an annual basis, the biggest jump in 28 years.Nobody expects the Fed to raise interest rates this year or next. But it is likely the Fed starts to hint that they are thinking about tapering their bond purchases, possibly as soon as this fall.Some Meme stock news:GameStop (GME) fell 7% in premarket trading even after the company tapped former Amazon executive Matt Furlong to be its next CEO and said that sales rose 25% last quarter. The company also said it may sell up to 5 million additional shares from time to time, in "at-the-market" offeringsAnd more retail earnings:Restoration Hardware (RH) surged 8.4% in premarket trading after it reported a quarterly profit of $4.89 per share, above the $4.10 a share consensus estimate. They also reported better-than-expected revenue and raised its full-year outlook.Tesla (TSLA) plans to launch its new Model S Plaid today. The high-end version of the Model S will cost just under $120,000 and has a projected driving range of 390 miles. The super high-end version, the Model S Plaid Plus was supposed to go from 0-60 in less than 2 seconds with a range of more than 500 miles, but Tesla canceled that model.One day after falling to a three-week low, Bitcoin rose 5% to more than $35,400 on Wednesday. El Salvador became the first country to adopt bitcoin as legal tender. Prices in El Salvador can now be shown in bitcoin and taxes contributions can be paid with the digital currency. El Salvador's current official currency is the U.S. dollar. JBS, the world's biggest meat processor, said it paid an $11 million ransom to hackers who forced it to shut down plants last week.More than 25% of shoppers at Levi's have a different size today than before the pandemic, according to CEO Chip Bergh. He called the number of people with new sizes “pretty staggering.”The Amazon (AMZN) Founder Jeff Bezos is launching himself into space. In an Instagram post, Bezos said that he and his brother would be onboard Blue Origin's first passenger-carrying mission, set for liftoff on July 20.That leaves only one seat open. So if you've been looking to get some Bezos facetime to pitch your startup idea, you can bid for New Shepard's final seat through Saturday. As of yesterday, the highest bid to sit sandwiched between the Bezos brothers for an 11-minute space flight reaching an altitude of 62 miles: $2.8 million.This wraps up today's stock market news.If you enjoyed the "Stock Market Today" video, make sure to subscribe to this podcast. And for more stock market news,  visit https://rockwelltrading.com.#todaysstockmarket #stockmarkettoday #stockmarket

The European Central Bank will pretend it is not thinking about tapering when it meets next week, while the Bank of Canada will take a step back to access its recent decision to get the ball rolling on its QE exit process. As the two central banks set the stage for the FOMC meeting in the following week, the May CPI print out of America will catch the attention of the US dollar. In an otherwise quietish week, sterling will be hoping for a boost from the barrage of April production data that's due in the UK.Risk Warning: 78.28% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: http://www.xm.com/market-analysis-videoIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.Visit our page for more: http://www.xm.com the international Forex broker.

Don't believe the Fed's spin that asset price increases are "Transitory". Price appreciation is here to stay given that the Fed has inflated the Money Supply (M1) by 4.7x since January 2020. “Inflation” to lead headlines again when CPI data is reported. Real-world price appreciation is well ahead of the Fed’s 2% target. If last month was any indication the term “inflation” will dominate market-related headlines when May CPI data is released on Thursday June 10th at 8:30am ET (See Google Trends chart below for search term “inflation” as of Thursday May 27th). Recall that when April CPI data was released on May 12th, many were surprised to learn of the 4.2% annual increase (April 2021-April 2020 period). We don’t publish a TEK2day inflation model, but trips to the grocery store, farmers markets and Home Depot were sufficient to directionally indicate that prices have increased over the past few weeks. Price increases are a predictable by-product of a foolish monetary policy that has inflated the money supply (M1) by 4.7x since January 2020 (chart below). Stagflation is the end-game to this experiment in ultra-inflationary monetary policy. As to the question of “transitory inflation” – that is Fed marketing spin. A casual glance at housing prices, equities, building materials, precious metals, commodities, used car prices, art, food, etc. speaks to something more permanent. The catalyst of course is the Fed’s dramatic expansion of the money supply. However, don’t blame Mr. Powell for The Fed’s actions. COVID forced his hand after all. “Good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times”. – G. Michael Hopf

The market tried to rebound on Wednesday but the gains were slim. A number of FOMC members spoke out to try and soothe the market?s fear of rising inflation but to little avail. The market has its eyes set on Friday?s core consumer inflation data end is getting ready to be surprised. The consensus estimate of 0.6% is a little low In light of the May CPI data which showed consumer inflation rising 1% for the month. If the data comes in hot, it could send the market into another tailspin and this time the bottom may not be reached quite so soon.Among Wednesday's biggest movers were the reopening stocks. Cruise Lines Airlines and hospitality stocks were all up more than 2% intraday with many up more than 2.5% at the height of the session. With economic reopening underway and gaining momentum globally, these stocks can be expected to outperform the rest of the market over the summer. The question now is how good will the results be when the Q2 earnings season rolls around.

Investment Analyst from ETM Analytics Jana van Deventer talks about; 1) May CPI data was softer than expected yesterday and the rand strengthened to its best levels in 7 weeks 2) It is finally D-day: UK citizens will today vote on whether or not they would like to remain in the European Union. Any clarity on what the outcome might be and when are we likely to know?

Investment Analyst with ETM Analytics Jana van Deventer looks at what are the main events that could impact the markets this week and the May CPI data will be released on Wednesday - what are the inflation numbers expected to show?