The Focus Group with Sarah Longwell

Sarah had a busy travel schedule this week, so we're bringing you some raw audio. With the recent revelations about Joe Biden's mental state during his term, we asked a couple of groups of Democrats what they thought during (and after) his presidency, and how it might inform their thinking going forward. These voters liked Biden but supported his decision to withdraw from the 2024 race. The excerpts of these groups were edited for length and for participants' privacy.

Donald Trump is looking to pass his Big, Not-So-Beautiful Bill through Congress. To do it, he needs to get it past congressional Republicans. So what do Republican voters think of congressional leaders, and whether this bill is as big and beautiful as it seems? New York Times congressional reporter Annie Karni joins Sarah. By Annie Karni: Mad House: How Donald Trump, MAGA Mean Girls, a Former Used Car Salesman, a Florida Nepo Baby, and a Man with Rats in His Walls Broke Congress Go to https://surfshark.com/thefocusgroup or use code thefocusgroup at checkout to get 4 extra months of Surfshark VPN!

JD Vance is one heartbeat away from the presidency, and he's a big part of the Republican Party's future. It turns out, his ideas are also part of the reason the second Trump term has been a lot more pure MAGA than the first. POLITICO's Ian Ward returns to the show to recap Vance's first few months in office, his political future, and go deep on some of the New Right's major intellectual influences. By Ian Ward: The Spiritual Case for Greenland There's No Need to Guess. JD Vance Is Ready to Ignore the Courts. Curtis Yarvin's Ideas Were Fringe. Now They're Coursing Through Trump's Washington. The Seven Thinkers and Groups That Have Shaped JD Vance's Unusual Worldview Go to https://surfshark.com/thefocusgroup or use code thefocusgroup at checkout to get 4 extra months of Surfshark VPN!

With Donald Trump's approval ratings falling, that means some of his voters aren't getting what they voted for. We talked to those voters, to find out what that does and doesn't mean about their relationship to this administration (spoiler: they DON'T wish they'd voted for Kamala Harris). Semafor's Dave Weigel joins the show to break down how those voters are feeling, and the battle lines for the upcoming legislative battles over Trump's agenda. show notes By Dave Weigel: Democrats' new pitch: Down with the king Democrats are all but done with Trump impeachment talk

Sarah didn't think she'd be looking to Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as examples of good Democratic communicators. But all of a sudden, they're some of the only people in the Democratic Party showing how to get the Trump opposition engaged. Faiz Shakir, Sanders' adviser and 2020 presidential campaign manager, joins the show to talk about Sanders' and Ocasio-Cortez's rallies around the country, why he thinks they'll advance the Democratic Party going forward, and what even moderates can learn from their approach.

Donald Trump's first 100 days in office have been marked by a lot of aspiring autocratic behavior...like deporting a legal resident without due process, targeting his political enemies, to walking right up to the line of ignoring the Supreme Court. Unfortunately, it's not a given that voters will care...or even clock that what they're seeing is bad. Atlantic staff writer Anne Applebaum joins Sarah to discuss how voters are seeing Trump, and how he's comparing to autocratic regimes around the world. show notes Anne on Substack By Anne Applebaum: Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism Autocracy, Inc.: The Dictators Who Want to Run the World America's Future Is Hungary

Trump has plunged the markets into chaos over the last couple of weeks with his tariffing, and un-tariffing, and possible re-tariffing. The Biden-to-Trump voters we've talked to were a mixed bag on this. Scott Lincicome, author of The Dispatch's economics newsletter Capitolism and Vice President of general economics at the Cato Institute, joins Sarah to listen to how the trade war is trickling down to voters and where it all might go from here. show notes By Scott Lincicome: Capitolism Newsletter This show is #sponsored by OneSkin. Get 15% off OneSkin with the code THEFOCUSGROUP at https://www.oneskin.co #oneskinpod

We've heard from a lot of Democrats who want the party to be more moderate, and many who want the party to be more progressive. But they all agree that the party needs to fight harder in this moment. Lauren Egan, author of The Bulwark's newsletter, The Opposition, joins Sarah to listen to some Democrats talk about the threats they see from the Trump administration, and how they think elected Democrats should respond. By Lauren Egan: Chuck Schumer Is Facing a Biden Moment Where Have All the Pussyhats Gone? Some Weird Alliances Are Breaking Out Among Democrats This show is #sponsored by OneSkin. Get 15% off OneSkin with the code THEFOCUSGROUP at https://www.oneskin.co/ #oneskinpod

Donald Trump is facing some headwinds. His staff accidentally leaked war plans to a reporter, and the promised price cuts are nowhere to be found. We check in with Biden-Trump voters on Signal-gate, and talk to Trump's base about whether they want him running for a third term, how they feel about the economy (which may surprise you), and the state of the MAGA media ecosystem. The Bulwark's MAGA-knower Will Sommer joins Sarah to sift through it all. show notes By Will Sommer:  When ‘Owning The Libs' > The Constitution A Crack in Ben Shapiro's Daily Wire

We're checking in with 2024's non-voters, and Sarah has a (friendly) fight with our guest over whether Kamala Harris should have closed the 2024 campaign with Liz Cheney. They also talk to some of 2024's non-voters, who have some thoughts on how Democrats should be fighting back right now. Jen Psaki, host of MSNBC's Inside with Jen Psaki and the podcast The Blueprint with Jen Psaki, joins the show.

We're checking in on first-time Trump voters as Trump's reign of chaos continues. Some love what they're getting and think Democrats are out over their skis. Others are wondering when Trump will get around to fixing the economy. Atlantic staff writer and legendary DC chronicler Mark Leibovich joins Sarah to discuss what to make of it all. Show notes: Mark Leibovich in The Atlantic: Greenland's Prime Minister Wants the Nightmare to End Books by Mark Leibovich: Thank You for Your Servitude This Town

Five years ago this week, the COVID-19 pandemic came to the United States, and with it a level of suffering and distrust of authority (and each other) that we haven't fully reckoned with. Indeed, the pandemic was a major factor in what made Donald Trump's political comeback possible. Dr. Leana Wen, public health expert and author of the Washington Post newsletter The Checkup with Dr. Wen joins Sarah to discuss the lessons learned from the pandemic, how it changed Americans, and its implications for the future of public health. Show notes: The Checkup with Dr. Wen This show is #sponsored by OneSkin. Get 15% off OneSkin with the code THEFOCUSGROUP at https://www.oneskin.co/ #oneskinpod

Trump shouted down Zelensky in the Oval Office last week, and many pro-Ukraine Trump voters wished it hadn't happened like that...publicly, at least. So, we wondered, what did the remaining pro-Ukraine Republicans think of America's role in the world? Pod Save America and Pod Save the World host Tommy Vietor joins Sarah to discuss the future of foreign policy in Trump 2.0.

We're doing something a bit different this week: We're giving you nearly an hour of  audio from a recent focus group of men aged 18-29 who voted for Donald Trump in 2024. We get into everyone's media diets, what they think of Elon and Trump, and how the culture talks to young men today. You don't want to miss it.

It seems like Elon Musk is running America right now. SOME people in our focus groups don't like it all that much. Legendary tech reporter and Musk-whisperer Kara Swisher joins the show to discuss Musk's MAGA character arc and what his real motivations are with DOGE. Show notes: Pivot with Kara Swisher & Scott Galloway On with Kara Swisher Burn Book: A Tech Love Story

Plenty of the newest Donald Trump voters wanted him to fix the border, and to deport criminals. Some are excited by what they're seeing, and some are getting more than they bargained for. Bulwark immigration correspondent Adrian Carrasquillo joins Sarah to discuss voter reactions, and the latest developments in Trump's immigration regime. By Adrian Carrasquillo: The Border Debate Is Over. Dems Lost. Inside Trump World's Plans To Gloss Up Mass Deportations Trump's Deportation Dragnet Widens and Puerto Ricans Are Getting Caught in It Trump Wants to ‘End' Sanctuary Cities. This Mayor Has a Different Idea. Trump Turns Schools Into an Immigration Battleground

Where do Democratic voters want the party to go next? And just as importantly, how does the party need to be thinking differently? Adam Jentleson, former chief of staff to Sen. John Fetterman and aide to Sen. Harry Reid, joins Sarah to discuss the kind of thinking hampering current Democratic elected officials and staff, and they discuss some new ways to campaign and govern as the party looks toward 2026 and 2028. By Adam Jentleson: New York Times Guest Essay: When Will Democrats Learn to Say No? Kill Switch: The Rise of the Modern Senate and the Crippling of American Democracy

Donald Trump's approval rating is sitting around 50 percent, which is as high as he's ever been, even though he started his term by pardoning January 6 rioters, causing mass confusion across the government, and claiming that DEI caused a plane crash. The voters we talked to in our focus groups are just glad to see someone "taking action." Bulwark managing editor Sam Stein joins Sarah to talk about voters' reactions to Trump's flurry of executive orders (including the January 6 pardons), and how long Trump's "honeymoon" may last.

Anyone who opposes Donald Trump isn't feeling great this week. And where there was "resistance" when Trump took office in 2017, there was more resignation among the voters we talked to this week as he began his second term. Bulwark alum Amanda Carpenter of Protect Democracy joins Sarah to talk about what we should (and should not) be focused on over the next four years.

As Joe Biden leaves office, we're taking one last look at his presidency, and what we've heard said about him since 2020. The New Yorker's Evan Osnos joins Sarah to recap his interviews with Biden over the years and discusses his legacy. Sponsor: Get 15% off OneSkin with the code THEFOCUSGROUP at https://www.oneskin.co/  Show notes: By Evan Osnos: Joe Biden's Last Campaign Joe Biden: The Life, the Presidency, and What Matters Now Wildland: The Making of America's Fury

The podcast-sphere was one of the most covered stories of the 2024 election, with Joe Rogan standing above all. Podcaster extraordinaires Sarah and Tim turn over why this medium is appealing to the newest Trump voters (specifically the Rogan fans), and what our new long-form world means for the future of politics.

We've spent plenty of time on this show discussing what Donald Trump's newest voters found wanting about Democrats in the 2024 election. This week, we're turning our attention to their affirmative case for Trump. The Bulwark's MAGA-world correspondent, Marc Caputo joins Sarah to hear them out. show notes The NYT's DealBook summit Sarah referenced Harvard Kennedy School's recent election forum that Marc referenced

We've got (Thanksgiving) leftover focus group sound we didn't get to last week. Sarah's best friend Jonathan V. Last makes his vengeful return to the show to work through his thoughts (and the voters' thoughts) on the 2024 election, and he and Sarah parry over just how serious this country is anymore. It gets spicy.

The Focus Group Podcast is back for a post-election autopsy. We're starting with a deep dive on how Donald Trump's newest voters found Kamala Harris and the Democrats lacking. Astead Herndon, host of The New York Times podcast The Run-Up joins Sarah to write a first draft of how we got here. show notes The Run-Up: The Democrats' Plan to Get Skeptics on Their Side The Run-Up: Kamala Harris on Kamala Harris The Bulwark's Bleak Friday Sale

The polls are close enough that this election could go either way. But whatever happens, the focus groups over the last year-plus have given some clues about what's motivating the swing voters voting for Trump, and those voting for Harris. Atlantic senior editor Ron Brownstein joins Sarah to listen to voters and what the Trump and Harris coalitions might look like. show notes By Ron Brownstein: The Democratic Theory of Winning With Less The Improbable Coalition That Is Harris's Best Hope

There's one thing Republican and Democratic strategists all agree on right now: no state is more likely to decide this election than Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania-based POLITICO reporter Holly Otterbein joins Sarah to break down Pennsylvania's shift to the right in recent years, and why Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is finding himself in a surprisingly close race. Show Notes: Spotlight PA: Democrats in Pa. approach 2024 election with slimmest voter registration advantage in decades By Holly Otterbein:  Harris ramps up her appeals to Republican voters in the Philly suburbs ‘Pennsylvania is such a mess': Inside Team Harris' unusual levels of finger-pointing Dems see warning signs for Harris with Latino men in Pennsylvania

Donald Trump may well win both Arizona and Nevada, but Republican Senate candidates there are on the struggle bus. Jon Ralston of the Nevada Independent joins to break down Sarah's recent focus groups with PBS in Nevada, and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez of the Washington Post discusses Arizona's abortion rights referendum and Kari Lake's comeback attempt in the U.S. Senate race. Editor's note: This episode was taped before the October 17 release of Ruben and Kate Gallego's divorce records.

Michigan and Wisconsin aren't just presidential battlegrounds; their Senate races are getting more competitive down the stretch. So how are swing voters thinking about their options? Craig Gilbert, former DC bureau chief for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, and Craig Mauger, political reporter for the Detroit News, join Sarah to break down the electoral landscape in the upper midwest. Show notes: By Craig Gilbert: What polling tells us about Wisconsin's undecided voters The Bulwark's Swing State Swing

The pundit class thought JD Vance performed better than Tim Walz in the vice presidential debate. Voters thought Vance was a good performer, but they couldn't quite shake their skepticism. Puck News's John Heilemann joins Sarah to review voters' reactions to the VP debate and the history of VP picks more broadly.

Some of today's first-time voters were 10 years old when Donald Trump launched his first presidential campaign, so he's all they've known in politics. That's certainly affected how they look at politics, across the political spectrum. Puck's Peter Hamby joins Sarah to discuss the youth vote in the home stretch of the 2024 election. show notes September 2024 Harvard Youth Poll By Peter: The Left's Trumpnesia Problem Kamala's Generation Gap The Swift-Rogan Election

Sarah recently sat down with Reid Hoffman and Aria Finger on their podcast Possible to talk about the future of politics, the origins of her focus group work, and how artificial intelligence might impact that work. https://possible.fm/podcast

We're taking a break from the presidential race this week. The battle for control of the Senate is running through red states, with former Trump voters. Some of them are more persuadable than others. Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report joins Sarah to discuss the Senate races in Ohio, Montana, and Texas, and the role of abortion politics in this year's Senate races.

 Kamala Harris crushed Donald Trump in this week's debate...and swing voters noticed. CNN's Dana Bash joins Sarah to discuss her new book, this week's debate, her experience as the co-moderator of the June 27 debate, and the role of moderator fact-checking in both debates. show notes By Dana Bash and David Fisher: America's Deadliest Election: The Cautionary Tale of the Most Violent Election in American History

Kamala Harris's campaign has created a month of immaculate vibes, but plenty of voters are still skeptical. Semafor Washington bureau chief Benjy Sarlin joins Sarah to discuss the state of the race going into the second debate, and Harris's standing with skeptical former Biden voters. show notes Adam Carlson's Crosstab Aggregator Relevant past episodes: With black voters: March 2024, with Ashley Allison July 2024, with Audie Cornish With hispanic voters: October 2023, with Ruy Teixeira June 2024, with Amy Walter

The Democratic National Convention was a respite from Democrats' summer of despair, and a lot of the good vibes filtered down to swing voters...but are good vibes enough? Democratic pollster John Anzalone joins Sarah to listen to how the new ticket looks to swing voters...and even some former Trump voters who are now Harris-curious. 

The Bulwark is ON LOCATION at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, and we've got quite a lot to talk about! National Political Reporter Joe Perticone joins Sarah to recap the sights and sounds from the convention. They also walk through swing voters' reactions to the Harris-Walz ticket, and how plugged in they were to convention coverage generally (not very much).

JD Vance's evolution on Trump over the years has left voters wondering what he really believes. But our guest this week can shed some light on that. POLITICO's Ian Ward joins Sarah to discuss his reporting on JD Vance and the "new right" more broadly. They also discuss Ian's reporting from inside Project 2025, and the role it may play in a future Trump administration...regardless of what Trump says. Show notes By Ian Ward: It Was Supposed to Be Trump's Administration in Waiting. But Project 2025 Was a Mirage All Along. Is There Something More Radical than MAGA? J.D. Vance Is Dreaming It. JD Vance on Elizabeth Warren, Steve Bannon and What's Wrong With the GOP Are Republican Voters Ready for the Nerdy Radicalness of JD Vance? The Seven Thinkers and Groups That Have Shaped JD Vance's Unusual Worldview

Sarah is on vacation this week, but we didn't want to leave you without some focus group reactions to Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz joining the Democratic ticket. Listen to how swing voters from around the country AND Minnesota voters who know Walz best are thinking about him and the presidential race more broadly. We'll see you next week.

Kamala Harris is closing in on a vice presidential pick, and her shortlist looks...a LOT different than Joe Biden's shortlist did in 2020. New Bulwark managing editor Sam Stein joins Sarah to break down Harris's options and walk through his new reporting on scammy Democratic PACs. show notes By Sam Stein: Harris Camp Warns Supporters: Don't Get Duped by ‘Scam PACs' They Begged Dems for Money—Then Spent Lavishly on Hotels and Entertainment

At the 11th hour, Kamala Harris is now the presumptive Democratic nominee. Longtime listeners will know that swing voters have had a negative impression of her--but luckily, it's just an impression! David Axelrod, former senior advisor to President Obama, joins Sarah to walk through where Harris goes from here. show notes The Bulwark in Dallas on September 5 The Axe Files with David Axelrod Hacks on Tap

The Republican National Convention took place with the backdrop of an assassination attempt, and Donald Trump added a MAGA true believer to his ticket, in J.D. Vance. The Bulwark's Marc Caputo joins Sarah from Milwaukee to discuss the convention, the aftermath of the assassination attempt on Trump, and voters' reactions to the Trump-Vance ticket. This episode was recorded before Donald Trump's acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention. show notes Marc Caputo in The Bulwark:  White Men Can Vote: The Logic Behind J.D. Vance for VP

Democrats' spin holds that the calls for Joe Biden to drop out are driven by the media, while base Democratic voters beyond Washington are committed to seeing Biden as the nominee, and there will be a backlash if he isn't. In a series of focus groups with black Democratic voters this week, we found the truth to be more complicated. Audie Cornish, host of the CNN podcast The Assignment with Audie Cornish, joins Sarah to evaluate how Democratic voters (especially black voters) are grappling with whether Joe Biden should stay in the race...and how perceptions of Kamala Harris are driving the discussion.

Joe Biden's debate performance was a disaster...and voters noticed. Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller bring you the voters' reactions and a frank discussion about the risks and rewards of Biden stepping aside as the nominee...because something in this race has to change. show notes Puck News: Biden Plunges in Swing States in Leaked Post-Debate Poll

We taped this show before Joe Biden's disastrous first debate, but its thesis still holds true: he's losing this race. To better understand why, we fielded a group of Hispanic voters who voted for Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, and are now leaning towards Trump. Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report joins Sarah to break down why these voters are giving Donald Trump a fresh look. From Amy Walter: Biden's Slumping Poll Numbers Not Only Limited to Swing States Defectors and Double-Haters: Who Are They, and Who Can Win Them?

Utah has been something of a bulwark (pun intended) against Trumpism, but even they haven't been immune to sliding into MAGA. And now, with Sen. Mitt Romney retiring, Republican voters are poised to pick a new U.S. senator there. The Atlantic's McKay Coppins joins Sarah to break down how Utah Republicans are different, and where they might go from here. They also discuss voters' assessments of Romney as he prepares to leave office.

One of the Republican Party's biggest long-term problems is that their base is demanding behavior that swing voters won't tolerate, and few things have brought out this gap better than Donald Trump's recent conviction. The Washington Post's Isaac Arnsdorf joins Sarah to discuss what the MAGA base expects out of politicians these days, and how swing voters are reacting. show notes: Isaac Arnsdorf's Book: Finish What We Started: The MAGA Movement's Ground War to End Democracy