Shield of the Republic

Eric and Eliot discuss this week's jackassery (Joni Ernst's dismissive attitude towards Medicaid cuts, Trump's obsessive posting on Truth Social and his disconnection from reality) before moving into a discussion of the Ukrainian drone attack on Russian Long-Range Aviation and the degree to which it represents an inflexion point in military affairs. How much will future wars in different parts of the world look like what we witnessed this past weekend? How will autonomy and AI combine to change the character of war? They also discuss the situation in Gaza, the difficulty of discerning a political objective in Israeli military operations, Israeli policy in Syria which may be self-defeating and its potential impact on how Bibi responds to what may be a Trump Iran deal that looks an awful lot like President Obama's JCPOA. Eliot's Latest in The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/06/ghosts-haunt-strategy/683004/ Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eliot returns from overseas travel and brings back the jackassery of the week segment with him. He and Eric discuss the President's reliance on totally fraudulent evidence while ambushing the President of South Africa with a video alleging genocide against whites in his country, the President's bizarre commencement address at the "Army Acadmey," the disembowling of the national security council staff, and the continued sniping in the immediate office of the Secretary of Defense. Eliot also reports on the "strategic ghosts" haunting the chanceries of Europe and his visits to Edinburgh, London, Tallinn, Stockholm and Warsaw. They discuss the UK Strategic Defense Review and Britain's post-imperial overstretch, Eliot's attendance at the Lennert Meri Conference in Estonia and that country's memories of absorption into the Soviet Union and its fears of Russian revanchism, Russian gray zone activity in the Baltic Sea, Russian troop movements in the north and the threat to the Nordics, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's unpublished threatening letter to the Swedes in 2021, Sweden's "armed neutrality" during the Cold War, the nuclear question that hangs over Poland as well as Polish resentments at past betrayals, Russia's evolution into a perpetual warfare state, and European efforts to both rearm, assist Ukraine and influence Trump (and their chances of success on the latter front). Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

With Eliot still on the road, Eric welcomes Dennis Ross, Counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former Director of Policy Planning under James Baker, Special Middle East Envoy under President Clinton among several other high level national security positions at State, Defense and the White House under Presidents Carter, Reagan, Bush 41, Clinton, and Obama. Dennis is also a prolific author including his memoir of Middle East diplomacy, The Missing Peace, Doomed to Succeed - a history of U.S.-Israel relations, and most recently Statecraft 2.0: What America Needs to Lead in a Multipolar World, (New York: Oxford University Press, 2025). They discuss why Dennis chose to update his 2005 book on Statecraft, his choice of case studies including German Reunification, the First Gulf War, Bosnia, the Iraq War and the Syria policy debacle under President Obama. He describes the contending schools of thought about America's role in the world, including America First, Restrainers, Realists, and Liberal Internationalists and their differences over the use of force, alliances, as well as the role of interests and values in American foreign policy. He outlines the habits of good statecraft, including proper assessments, use of leverage and coercion, Presidential leadership and empowering lower level officials while avoiding groupthink. Along the way they discuss Afghanistan, Libya, the war in Ukraine and Dennis's assessment of President Trump's trip to the Middle East and his policy approach to the war in Ukraine and changing Vladimir Putin's calculus about war termination. Statecraft 2.0: What America Needs to Lead in a Multipolar World: https://a.co/d/j8C7WcH Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

With Eliot traveling abroad, Eric hosts Financial Times Washington commentator Edward Luce, author of Zbig: The Life of Zbigniew Brzezinski, America's Great Power Prophet (New York, Avid Reader Press, 2025). They discuss Zbig's historical significance, why there have been more biographies of Henry Kissinger than Brzezinski and whether or not he was, in the long pull of history, more consequential than Kissinger. They also consider whether Brzezinski was a better National Security Adviser than Carter was a President. They talk about the very complicated Zbig-Henry relationship and the different styles they brought not only to their interpersonal exchanges but also their concern for reputation management in Washington. They touch on Zbig's contributions to the reorientation of nuclear strategy, nuclear command and control, undermining the Soviet Union with covert action and an emphasis on nationalities, the catastrophic collapse of the Shah's regime in Iran and the subsequent hostage crisis which sank the Carter Presidency, as well as arguably Zbig's finest moment after the 1980 election when the Carter Administration fended off a possible Soviet invasion of Poland. Zbig: The Life of Zbigniew Brzezinski, America's Great Power Prophet: https://a.co/d/1BeHvGu Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eliot and Eric welcome Larry Summers, former President of Harvard University and former Secretary of Treasury in the Clinton Administration. They discuss why his prescient advice about the dangers of inflation were ignored by the Biden Administration and whether or not Democrats have learned the lesson that inflation affects all Americans with corrosive political effects. They also touch on the prospects for the US economy given Trump's misguided and haphazard policies as well as the role they have played in the decline of the stock market and dollar and increase in bond yields and touch on the role that the loss of the US reputation for being a rule of law nation might have on long run prospects for the economy. They also examine his role as President of Harvard, his determination to participate in ROTC commissioning ceremonies, the danger of identity concerns devolving into a "victimization Olympics," his concerns about the decline of universities as an ivory tower where the search for truth goes on as well as the excesses of anti-Semitism that Harvard among other universities have suffered as well as more general reflections on the role of universities on the nation's public life. Larry Summers on Conversations with Bill Kristol: https://conversationswithbillkristol.org/conversation/larry-summers-trump-tariffs-threats-us-economy/ Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eliot and Eric welcome Edward Fishman, Senior Research Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy and Adjunct Professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University's SIPA program and author of Chokepoints: American Power in The Age of Economic Warfare (New York: Portfolio/Penguin, 2025). They discuss the American tradition of reaching for economic sanctions as an alternative to kinetic military action or war and how U.S. policymakers have weaponized the role of the dollar in international finance to U.S. advantage as well as export controls like the Foreign Direct Product rule that weaponize U.S. cutting edge technologies. They discuss how these tools, if used inappropriately, can backfire as they arguably did in the early 1800s with the Non-Intercourse Act and the Embargo under Jefferson and Madison as well as the scrap metal and oil embargoes against Imperial Japan in 1940-1941. They consider the record of economic warfare in bringing Iran to the table for the negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), as a deterrent to Russian military action against Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 and then as tools of attrition against the Russian war effort, as well as in the ongoing strategic competition with China. Finally, they consider whether we should see sanctions and economic warfare as limited tools that can achieve limited goals as opposed to fundamentally changing the behavior of America's authoritarian adversaries. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia. Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare: https://a.co/d/fFkgUq7

Eric and Eliot welcome former Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi, Assistant Professor of Security Studies at Georgetown University's school of Foreign Service and author of The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order, to discuss their article in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, "Underestimating China: Why America Needs a New Strategy of Allied Scale to Offset Beijing's Enduring Advantages." They discuss China's massive advantages of scale in the strategic competition with the United States and the metrics that can be used to measure it including manufacturing capacity, not only in traditional industries but also in areas like biotechnology and aviation where the U.S. used to have the lead. They note how this translates into military production of ships, ballistic missiles, and drones. While acknowledging ongoing Chinese demographic, economic and environmental problems and continuing U.S. advantages they call for right-setting U.S. understanding of China rather than swinging from defeatism to triumphalism and back again. They examine the prospects for a U.S. led alliance to offset China's scale advantages but argue that it will require a new kind of alliance management by Washington policymakers that they call "capacity-centric statecraft." They also touch on the prospects of conflict over Taiwan in the next 5 years and whether it will take the form of a cross channel invasion or a blockade.

Eliot and Eric note this week's jackassery—tariffing McDonald Island and Heard Island off Australia, almost exclusively inhabited by penguins, and Trump's plan for a four-mile-long military parade to mark his birthday on June 14 and the anniversary of the United States Army. In a more sinister vein they discuss the absolute craziness of the NSC staff purge apparently orchestrated by conspiracy theorist and MAGA influencer Laura Loomer and the subsequent cashiering of NSA Director and Cybercom Commander Gen. Timothy Haugh (as well as his deputy) and the firing of Adm. Shoshana Chatfield as the U.S. military representative to NATO for various imagined DEI sins. They also touch on the insane economic self harm of Trump's trade war and the incompetence of the Trump team as they calculated the tariffs. Eric and Eliot diverge on the issue of how trade policy has migrated from the legislative to the executive branch and how the constitutional system set up by the Founders is out of balance. They also discuss Bibi Netanyahu's visit to Washington, the prospect of U.S.-Iranian direct negotiations over the nuclear program, the larger crisis of democracy in Israel and the danger of Israeli overreach in attempting to reset the Middle East. Then they discuss the recent visit of Russian envoy Kiril Dmitriev and his discussions with U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and what they might augur for the prospects of a ceasefire in Ukraine. Finally, in response to comments from viewers about Eric and Eliot's criticisms of the history behind the New York Times's 1619 Project, they provide the following commentary by several distinguished historians below: Sean Wilentz: https://philosophy.unc.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/122/2013/10/oph_oph-202101-0005.pdf James Oakes: https://catalyst-journal.com/2021/12/what-the-1619-project-got-wrong Gordon S. Wood: https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2019/11/28/wood-n28.html?mod=article_inline Leslie M. Harris: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/06/1619-project-new-york-times-mistake-122248

Eric and Eliot discuss VP Vance's trip to Greenland and his appointment by the President to oversee the purging of American history at the Smithsonian and other museums. They also discuss who the biggest loser will be from Signalgate. They consider an excellent diplomatic memoir from the 1960s written by former Ambassador and Under Secretary of State Robert "Bob" Murphy -- Diplomat Among Warriors.  Murphy pioneered the role of Political Advisor (POLAD) for military leaders working closely with Generals Dwight Eisenhower and Mark Clark on the invasion and subsequent governance of North Africa, Sicily and Italy and then worked with General Lucius Clay on the military government of Germany. They note Murphy's controversial role in maintaining diplomatic relations with the Vichy government of France and negotiating a deal with French Admiral Darlan to smooth the way for the invasion of North Africa. They also discuss critics like AJP Taylor who complained that the US had no policy during World War II and whether FDR's desire to postpone political decisions until after the war was naive or reflected a higher realism given the likely dominant role the US would have at the end of the war. They conclude that Murphy represents an important tradition of professionalism and subject matter expertise in government that is well worth preserving. Diplomat Among Warriors: The Unique World Of A Foreign Service Expert: https://a.co/d/742sKIz Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot discuss the most recent example of jackassery by the Trump Administration national security team which appears to have conducted a sensitive Principals Committee meeting on bombing the Houthis in Yemen over Signal, an unclassified commercial phone app. To discuss this and much more they also welcome Katie Stallard, the Senior Editor for Global Affairs for the New Statesman magazine in the UK. They discuss Katie's book Dancing on Bones: History and Power in China, North Korea and Russia (New York: Oxford University Press, 2022) and how authoritarian regimes have used the history of World War II (and in China and North Korea's case the Korean War) to shore up their legitimacy and to short circuit criticism. They discuss how, as the late Alexei Navalny suggested, the focus on the past is used to "displace thoughts about the future and questions about the present." They discuss how the interpretation of WWII has changed over the years to suit the needs and interests of the ruling clique in all these countries and the resonance of Vaclav Havel's observations that these regimes falsify everything the past, present and future and the only way to combat such mendacity is "living in truth." Finally, they discuss the disturbing resonances of these discussions about history that are now manifesting themselves in the United States. Dancing on Bones: History and Power in China, Russia and North Korea: https://a.co/d/iywWYPT Katie Stallard's latest in the New Statesmen: https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/geopolitics/2025/03/us-foreign-policy-return-of-america-first Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot try to parse the firehose of insanity and self-harm emanating from the Trump Administration. They discuss the disestablishment of the Office of Net Assessment in the Pentagon, a little known but important institution created during the Cold War. They also discuss the silencing of the Voice of America, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Radio Free Asia and Radio Marti despite the vital role these institutions played in the country's success in the Cold War. They discuss Eliot's Atlantic article on why invading Canada has not worked out well for the United States in the past and how the Trump Administration's policies are pushing the Canadians (among others) to contemplate canceling their order of F-35 fighter aircraft and joining the European Union. In addition they discuss Bibi Netanyahu's attempt to fire Ronen Bar, the head of Israel's internal security service the Shin Bet and whether or not BIbi needed Trump's example to go after the Israeli "deep state." Eliot on invading Canada: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/03/us-canada-relations-trump/682046/ New York Times report on DOGE cuts to the National Nuclear Security Administration https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/us/politics/federal-job-cuts-nuclear-bomb-engineers-scientists.html Eliot on the late Andrew Marshall: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/05/andrew-marshall-brain-pentagon-passed-away/588952/ Axios report on Netanyahu firing Ronen Bar: https://www.axios.com/2025/03/16/netanyahu-fire-shin-bet-ronen-bar Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot welcome Lt. Col. (ret.) Alexander Vindman, former director for Europe on the National Security Council during the first Trump term and author of The Folly of Realism: How the West Deceived Itself about Russia and Betrayed Ukraine (New York: Public Affairs Press, 2025). They discuss the U.S. government's prioritization of US-Russia relations over Ukraine policy across multiple Administrations and the tendency towards a transactional relationship with Ukraine as well as the degree of agency and responsibility of Ukrainian officials for this chronic state of affairs. They touch on the Obama Administration's underwhelming response to the seizure of Crimea and destabilization of Ukraine in 2014 as well as Trump's vulgar transactionalism and personal grudge against Zelensky as a motivation for the Oval Office meltdown two weeks ago. Eric and Eliot also discuss their respective articles in the Dispatch and the Atlantic on Russia's habit of violating agreements it has reached and Ukraine's success in fighting a war of attrition against Russia despite the media's misreporting of the state of the war. They also discuss the generational damage to American alliances and national security intellectual capital that the second Trump term is creating, Trump hostage envoy Adam Boehler's direct negotiation with Hamas terrorists, Trump's mistaken reference to Viktor Orban as the leader of Turkey, and Elon Musk and Marco Rubio's trashing of Poland's Foreign Minister on Twitter. The Folly of Realism: How the West Deceived Itself About Russia and Betrayed Ukraine: https://a.co/d/dTa2qN8 Eric & Frank Miller's latest on Russian treaty violations: https://thedispatch.com/article/russia-history-broken-treaties-agreements/ Eliot & Phillips O'Brien's latest on the rate of attrition in Ukraine: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/03/russia-ukraine-war-status/681963/ Eliot on the Trump administration's reputational damage to the U.S.: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/03/buzz-saw-pine-forest/681984/ Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eliot and Eric welcome Michael Beckley, Associate Professor of Political Science at Tufts University, non-resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and author of Unrivalled: Why America Will Remain the World's Sole Superpower, and co-author, with Hal Brands of Danger Zone. They discuss his article in the current issue of Foreign Affairs, "The Strange Triumph of a Broken America." They discuss the paradox of American power: Americans always think their country is in decline even when it is going from strength to strength economically and remains the most powerful and dynamic economy in the world. Michael recounts the many metrics that show that the American economy has vastly outstripped not only its autocratic rivals but its allies and the countries of the global south. They discuss the historical tradition of declinism in America and why it finds a ready audience. They also discuss America's great strengths --its geographical position, its relatively healthy demographics and its decentralized political institutions which have allowed the country to be a resilient source of innovation and dynamic economic growth. They also touch on how these strengths have also been, in a sense, liabilities. How they can lead to domestic political and social fragmentation as well as chronic strategic insolvency. They consider the danger of declining powers and how Russia and China fit into that framework, as well as relative versus absolute decline, what social psychology tells us about the propensity for risk taking when it comes to either holding onto what one currently has as opposed to seeking speculative gains as well as the degree of damage that the Trump Administration can do to the nation's traditional comparative advantages. Michael Beckley's Latest in Foreign Affairs: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/strange-triumph-broken-america-michael-beckley Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World's Sole Superpower: https://a.co/d/5bpnkN5 Understanding America's Contested Primacy: https://csbaonline.org/uploads/documents/2010.10.21-Understanding-Americas-Contested-Supremacy.pdf Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia

Eric and Eliot bemoan the shameful meltdown in the Oval Office between VP Vance, President Trump and President Zelensky. They discuss Vance's ambush and whether he executed it alone or in concert with Trump and note that those who are blaming Zelensky for rising to the bait are objectively pro-Putin. They discuss Vance's dark political views and they consider what Europeans can and should do. They also discuss Trump's delegation of responsibility to others and his “Trump Gaza” AI generated video. Eric asks only partially tongue in cheek what the odds are on Trump declaring himself a god by the end of the term. Robert Harris' Cicero Trilogy: https://a.co/d/fHShy26 Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot mark the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine with a shout out to the brave Ukrainians who are resisting Russian tyranny. They discuss the Friday night massacre at the Pentagon, noting the remarkable personal qualities of General C. Q. Brown and his role as Chief of Staff of the Air Force and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. They touch on the role of the JAGS and the dangers to good order and discipline that will result from having pliant lawyers. They also discuss the very troubling U.S. vote in the UN General Assembly against the resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine putting us in the company of Russia, Belarus, Nicaragua and North Korea. They consider what kind of negotiators Trump and Steve Witkoff will be and how international negotiations differ from real estate transactions. Finally, they consider some of the intellectual currents swirling around Trumpism and agree that they merit careful consideration. Eliot on the Pentagon's Friday Night Massacre: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/02/lawful-enormously-destructive/681809/ Eric on PBS News Weekend: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/the-potential-consequences-of-trumps-unprecedented-pentagon-shakeup Gen. C. Q. Brown Amidst the Death of George Floyd (2020): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nw4MI1v8I0k Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast cosponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eliot and Eric discuss the Munich Security Conference including its background and history. They review the contradictory signals sent by the many Trump officials who have been in different parts of Europe in the run-up to and aftermath of the Munich conference. They discuss Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth's comments, Vice President J.D. Vance's lamentable, off-key speech to the conference, the predatory agreement for the US to colonize Ukraine's raw materials that Secretary of the Treasury Bessent presented to Zelensky in Kyiv and the announcement of US-Russian talks (excluding Ukraine and Europe) to be held this week in Saudi Arabia. They discuss the dangers of a foreign policy carried out by Presidential whim and whether the potential Ukraine War ceasefire will be a bad deal or a catastrophic one and the knock on consequences in Europe, the Indo-Pacific, and for the global nuclear non-proliferation order. They focus on the human consequences of the rampage through government that Elon Musk and his "muskovites" are conducting. They praise the conservative prosecutors in the Southern District of New York who have resigned rather than carry out instructions that they considered corrupt and offer advice to those in government struggling with the moral dilemmas that have been created by the current Trumpian chaos. Eliot on SecDef Hegseth's Munich Speech: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/02/ukraine-trump-foreign-policy/681685/ Eric on Bulwark on Sunday: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riuTJgMceZg Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot try to parse the fire hose of news emanating from the Trump Administration. They discuss Eliot's Atlantic article on the American antecedents and causes of Trump's ascendancy and whether there is still some point in looking at the European autocrats like Viktor Orban on whom some Trumpists model themselves, as well as Ruy Texeira's article in the Free Press arguing that defending USAID is not the hill to die on for Democrats. They also discuss Richard Danzig's Washington Post article on how Elon Musk's DOGE might constructively help reform DoD's broken and dysfunctional acquisition process. They discuss the problems with Trump's Gaza proposal as well as the fact that it highlights how all other approaches to the issue of Gaza's relations with Israel have heretofore failed. They discuss Trump's executive order on Iran as well as General Keith Kellogg's preparations for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine and Trump's offer to resettle White Afrikaaners who have been disadvantaged by majority rule in South Africa. Eliot's Latest in The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/02/trump-historical-analogies/681561/ Ruy Texeira on USAID https://www.thefp.com/p/defending-usaid-is-political-suicide Richard Danzig on Pentagon Reform https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/02/06/doge-pentagon-tech-innovation/ Bret Stephens & Gail Collins on Trump's Second Term So Far https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/10/opinion/trump-musk-cabinet-education.html Steven Levitsky on The New Authoritarianism https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/02/trump-competitive-authoritarian/681609/ Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

With Eliot traveling Eric welcomes Eugene Finkel, the Kenneth H. Keller Professor of International Affairs at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) to discuss his recent book Intent to Destroy: Russia's Two-Hundred Year Quest to Dominate Ukraine (New York:  Basic Books, 2024). They discuss the long-term Russian effort to dominate, subordinate and eliminate Ukrainian nationality, culture and language. They touch on the pillars of Russian national identify and how Russians came to see Ukraine and Ukrainians as inferior members of a hierarchy of Russian-ness and how the emergence of Ukrainian nationalism in Poland and later the Austro-Hungarian empire came to represent an existential threat to Russian ethnic domination of St. Petersburg's multinational empire in the run up to world war one. They discuss the collapse of the Russian Empire and the emergence of an independent Ukraine, the reasons for its failure and Stalin's efforts to destroy Ukrainian nationalism, his drive for collectivization of agriculture and the ensuing Holodomor -- a man-made famine that cost perhaps as many as 5 million lives. They also discuss Ukraine during World War Two, caught between the Wehrmacht and Red Army. The collaboration of some Ukrainian nationalists with the Nazis and the guerrilla war to prevent Soviet re-occupation of Ukraine which lasted into the early 1950s, cost perhaps 100 thousand lives and gave birth to the Russian notion that Ukrainian nationalism was inherently fascist. They consider Ukraine's independence in 1992, the negotiation of the Budapest Memorandum and the myth that Ukraine "gave up nuclear weapons, as well as the cultural shift that will have to take place in Russia if there is to be lasting peace that ends the current war. Intent to Destroy: Russia's Two-Hundred-Year Quest to Dominate Ukraine: https://a.co/d/5fsdy8L Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot welcome Professor H. W. Brands, the Jack S. Blanton Chair in History at the University of Texas, Austin and the best-selling author of more than a dozen books on American History. They discuss his book America First: Roosevelt vs. Lindbergh in the Shadow of War (New York: Doubleday, 2024) touching on what drew him to the subject of the America First movement, the nature of the national debate on radio from 1939-1941, the transformation of the nation's default foreign policy of non-interventionism to globalism, the role of the Congressional fight over repealing the Neutrality Acts, Lindbergh's racialized thinking and anti-semitism, how the speech he gave in Des Moines at an America First rally in fall 1941 destroyed his national image and reputation, Lindbergh's personal character (and his multiple affairs with German women in the last twenty years of his life, the transition in elite thinking from hemispheric defense to a global posture of forward defense, the British and German influence operations to shape American public opinion before Pearl Harbor and the contemporary overtones of Lindbergh's non-interventionism, focus on future technology, and political naivete that are visible in Donald Trump and Elon Musk. America First: Roosevelt vs. Lindbergh in the Shadow of War: https://a.co/d/4Lr9jmh Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eliot and Eric welcome Drew Lichtenberg (resident dramaturg at the Shakespeare Theatre Company) and Deborah Payne (Professor of Literature at American University), authors of Shakespeare in the Theatre: Shakespeare Theatre Company. They discuss the long history of Washington's fascination with and interest in Shakespeare. They talk about the tensions inside the Folger Library with regard to studying or performing Shakespeare's plays, the political and economic changes that explain Washington's evolution from sleepy Southern city to a more vibrant cultural center, changing interpretation of Shakespeare's plays as a proxy for debates over representation and America's changing demography, and avant garde interpretation with a political spin versus more traditional classical approaches to the texts. Eric and Eliot also provide their first blush takes on Trump 2.0's first 48 hours. Shakespeare in the Theatre: Shakespeare Theatre Company https://a.co/d/cGaM5zO Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot welcome friend of the show Kori Schake back to Shield of the Republic. Kori is Senior Fellow and Director of Foreign Policy and Defense Studies at the American Enterprise Institute and author of Safe Passage: The Transition from British to American Hegemony (Cambridge, MA:  Harvard University Press, 2017). They discuss her recent retrospective article in Foreign Policy on the BIden administration's foreign policy. She critiques the Biden team's failures on the withdrawal from Afghanistan, trade policy and the broader decline of America's margin of deterrence and in particular the failure to keep military spending at an appropriate level given inflation. She also credits the Biden Administration with using the intelligence community's insights into Russia's plans for invading Ukraine appropriately to undo some of the damage done by the Iraq war and its alliance management after the Russian invasion in 2022. She discusses how much of the failure can be laid at Biden's feet personally and how much lies with his national security team. Finally, Eric and Eliot discuss the prospects for the new Trump team that appears to be brimming with self-confidence. They dissect the prospects for Pete Hegseth's confirmation hearing as well as Trump's fixation on Greenland and whether his enthusiasm is getting in the way of actual strategic accomplishments given the increasing strategic importance of the Arctic. https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/07/biden-foreign-policy-record-failure-success-national-security/ https://www.amazon.com/Safe-Passage-Transition-American-Hegemony/dp/0674975073 https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/01/trump-bluster-foreign-policy-greenland-canada/681268/ Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot are back from the break and have lots to discuss. They note the anniversary of January 6th and the somewhat successful efforts by MAGA types to rewrite its history in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Eric talks about the world that Trump will inherit which will be much more disorderly and dangerous that what he inherited in his first term as President, including an Iran on the cusp of having a nuclear weapons capability, the largest land war in Europe since World War II with battlefield situation for Ukraine looking grim even as Russia faces catastrophic losses of men and material, and Russia and China escalating an increasingly aggressive hybrid war of sabotage in the Baltic, off Taiwan and farther afield. They discuss turbulence of politics in the democratic world and the various causes of the rise of populist nationalism which has affected not just the U.S. but democracies around the world. They discuss Elon Musk's unprecedented role as an agent of political disruption around the democratic world and its byproducts in the UK, Germany, and Canada. Finally, they reprise their discussion of the futile efforts by members of the Biden Administration to polish and shape its foreign policy legacy through interviews and speeches when the final verdict will be rendered by historians likely to be unaffected by these transparently self-interested efforts. Eric on Conversations With Bill Kristol: https://conversationswithbillkristol.org/conversation/eric-edelman-on-the-world-trump-inherits/ JINSA Iranian Nuclear Report: https://jinsa.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Day-1-Strategy-to-Defeat-Iran-12.19-Compressed.pdf Phillips OBrien on Biden's legacy burnishing:  https://substack.com/home/post/p-154316690 Secretary Blinken Interview: https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-with-lulu-garcia-navarro-of-nyts-the-interview-podcast/ Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

With Eliot traveling, Eric welcomes back prolific historian and author Hal Brands to the show to discuss his forthcoming book The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World (New York: W.W. Norton, 2025) which will be published in mid-January. They discuss the ideas and careers of geopolitical thinkers Halford Mackinder, Alfred Thayer Mahan, and Nicholas Spykman whose views about the influence of geography on international affairs became enormously influential among political leaders of all stripes in the early to mid-Twentieth Century. They touch on the costs of deterrence versus the much higher costs of great power wars, the breakdown of the international trading system in the 1930s and how it presaged military conflict, why regional crises in the interwar period rapidly metastasized into the most costly global conflict in history and how our contemporary world resembles the world of 1940-1941. They also discuss the rise of China and the bipartisan consensus it has spawned on diagnosing our current international environment but has not yet led to a bipartisan execution of policies to remedy the situation. They also discuss the rise of geopolitical super predators in the 1930s, the evolution of "Fortress Eurasia" -- the emerging alliance among the PRC, Russia, Iran and North Korea, Senator Mitch McConnell's recent Foreign Affairs article arguing against retrenchment, and why it is hard to imagine a future conflict not becoming a global conflict today. Shield of the Republic will be taking a break for the holidays and will return in early January. The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World: https://a.co/d/2XQ7lWa The Price of American Retreat: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/price-american-retreat-trump-mitch-mcconnell Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot discuss the rapidly unfolding events in Syria and examine the causes and consequences of the collapse of Bashar al Assad's regime in Syria. They discuss the big winners (Turkey, Israel, the Syrian people and to a lesser extent the U.S) and the big losers (notably Russia and especially Iran). They discuss the timing of the Hayat Tahrir al Sham offensive, how to interpret the claims of HTS leader abu Mohammed al Jolani that the group has moderated, the prospects for Russia maintaining its Khmeimim Air Base and its naval base at Tartus, as well as the future of Iranian national security policy. In particular, they discuss whether the Iranians will have incentives to sprint to a nuclear weapon or whether they will temporize and seek to embroil the incoming Trump administration in an endless negotiation over the nuclear program. They discuss the Biden Administration's efforts to polish its reputation in the aftermath of recent events and the waxing and waning of leadership reputations including former President Barack Obama and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel. They consider what effect events in Syria might have on Trump's approach to the war in Ukraine. They also touch on listener criticisms that calling for greater defense spending seems out of touch with today's American political scene. They consider the results of the recent Reagan National Defense Forum survey and the light those results shed on the question of public support for stronger national defense. Eliot's latest pieces in the Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/12/khamenei-iran-syria/680920/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/12/european-troops-ukraine-war/680928/ Eric & David Kramer's latest in Politico: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/12/06/trump-ukraine-better-foreign-policy-00192415 Reagan Foundation Study on Public Perception of Defense Spending: https://www.reaganfoundation.org/media/363274/rndf-survey-nov-2024-memo.pdf Financial Times Retrospectives on Angela Merkel: https://www.ft.com/content/0a538c85-27fb-400e-ae8b-f13fb6ce4e72 https://www.ft.com/content/e82af5d9-32ea-444e-93e2-9e457d6a6796 Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot return from Thanksgiving to discuss the Trump transition and its national security nominations so far. They talk about Kash Patel as FBI Director, the new allegations against Secretary of Defense nominee Pete Hegseth, as well as the nepotistic nominations of in laws Charles Kushner, a convicted felon, as Ambassador to France and Massad Boulos as Middle East advisor. They discuss whether or not to take any solace from the nomination of General (ret.) Keith Kellogg as Ukraine Peace negotiator and the pluses and minuses of the America First Institute peace plan that Kellogg co-authored with Fred Fleitz in April. They also touch on the prospective challenges to civil-military relations that are likely to emerge early in the Trump Administration with mass deportation and prospective purges of the JCS and the senior officer corps more broadly. They discuss a series of developments in Europe and the Middle East that have not received as much attention as they deserve given the focus on the transition in the US including the Presidential election in Romania which was subject to Russian interference and the potential election of a populist, NATO skeptic as President, the rising protests in Georgia that eerily echo what happened in Ukraine with the Revolution of Dignity in 2014 and finally the Syrian opposition offensive against the regime of Bashar al Assad and its capture of Aleppo, Syria's second largest city. Keith Kellogg and Ukraine: https://americafirstpolicy.com/issues/america-first-russia-ukraine https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/42992 Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot welcome former U.S. Ambassador to Moscow John J. Sullivan. John was Deputy Secretary of Commerce in Bush 43, Deputy Secretary of State under Secretary Pompeo and served as Ambassador to Moscow for both Presidents Trump and Biden. They discuss his terrific account Midnight in Moscow: A Memoir From the Front Lies of Russia's War Against the West (New York:  Little Brown and Co., 2024). They talk about the importance and difficulty of maintaining reciprocity in diplomatic representation with Russia the declassification of intelligence to deter Russia and DCI Bill Burns's role in the run up to Putin's invasion, the nature of Russian society and the national character and Russia's imperial hangover, Ambassador Sullivan's never sent valedictory telegram from Moscow and his final judgments about Russia and its war on Ukraine and the west, Putin' readiness to negotiate and his criticisms of the Biden Administration's approach to the war in Ukraine. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric welcomes Eliot back from his recent trip to Israel. They discuss the election results, whether or not it represents a mandate for Trump, why the Dems lost, and what the initial signals from the Trump transition augur for national security. Will the normie Republicans control the cabinet positions with MAGA true believers taking the second and third tier positions? They touch on the role of Don Jr,, Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson in making personnel selections, the likely clash of egos to come as well as the policy contradictions that are likely to plague the Administration and the knock-on consequences of mass deportation and tariffs that are likely to roil the nation if the Trump team implements them. They talk about the prospects for a Lebanon cease-fire, Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer's trip to Moscow and how the Trump transition hangs over policy in the Middle East. Eliot reports back on his trip and discussions with Israeli military leaders who see themselves as facing a multi-front war with Iran. They discuss the destruction of Hamas's military capabilities in Gaza, the ongoing guerrilla war there and the difficulties that Israel may face in finding a political authority to rule over Gaza in the near future. They also discuss the much more precise campaign waged against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the damage that has been done to Iran's position in the region (and at home) by Israeli military success. They also discuss the tensions in Israeli society between secular and orthodox Jews on the one hand and the ultra-orthodox on the other.  Finally, they touch on the prospect for civil-military tensions in the US as a consequence of Trump's return to office. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

With Eliot traveling, Eric welcomes John Bolton, former Ambassador to the United Nations, National Security Advisor to Donald Trump and author of Surrender is Not an Option and The Room Where it Happened. They discuss why Trump is so susceptible to the blandishments of foreign dictators like Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un as well as his abysmal level of basic knowledge of how the U.S. government actually works and international affairs more broadly. They discuss the likely makeup of a Trump national security team in a putative second Trump term and what a Trump victory would mean for Ukraine and the future of NATO. They also discuss what a Harris team might look like and whether a Harris foreign policy would be a continuation of the Biden policies or whether it might be more reflective of the more Reaganite rhetoric she has used on the campaign trail. Finally, they discuss the two or three international security issues that Ambassador Bolton believes will require the most urgent attention from whoever wins the election. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Note: This was recorded prior to the results of the 2024 presidential election. With Eliot traveling, Eric welcomes John Bolton, former Ambassador to the United Nations, National Security Advisor to Donald Trump and author of Surrender is Not an Option and The Room Where it Happened. They discuss why Trump is so susceptible to the blandishments of foreign dictators like Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un as well as his abysmal level of basic knowledge of how the U.S. government actually works and international affairs more broadly. They discuss the likely makeup of a Trump national security team in a putative second Trump term and what a Trump victory would mean for Ukraine and the future of NATO. They also discuss what a Harris team might look like and whether a Harris foreign policy would be a continuation of the Biden policies or whether it might be more reflective of the more Reaganite rhetoric she has used on the campaign trail. Finally, they discuss the two or three international security issues that Ambassador Bolton believes will require the most urgent attention from whoever wins the election. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot try to explain (for a foreign audience and American expats) how it is possible that the election is so close. They discuss the role of inflation, the border, the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan as well as craziness on campus, and elite disdain for non-college educated Americans in fly-over country. They touch on Eric's article in the Bulwark that dissects efforts by former Trump Administration officials to put a patina of coherence and strategy to Trump's views on national security. They examine the objectives and success of Israel's recent retaliatory strike on Iran in response to the October 1 mass ballistic missile attack launched by Tehran as well as the prospects for the region in the aftermath and, in particular, the potential for Israel to reshape the region's politics (spoiler alert: color both Eric and Eliot skeptical). They also examine the dispatch of North Korean soldiers to Russia to fight in the Ukraine war and what that tells one about Putin's vulnerabilities and they discuss Russia's political warfare (with mixed results) in Georgia and Moldova. Finally they finish up with a discussion of recent readings on British naval history, FDR's efforts to mobilize the country for potential war in 1940 and the colonization of Mars. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot welcome Australian MG (ret.) Mick Ryan to the show to discuss his new book, The War For Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation under Fire (Naval Institute Press, 2024). They examine the initial strategies pursued by Russia and Ukraine as well as the assumptions that underpinned those strategies as well as considering how the two sides have adapted to changing conditions on the battlefield. They discuss the role of leadership and Ukraine's demonstration of greater ability to implement innovation in tactics on the battlefield from the ground up. Eliot and Mick discuss the difference between the relatively unchanging nature of war as opposed to the evolving character of war and how new technology and doctrine can make a difference in comparative advantage between adversaries. They discuss civil-military strains in both Ukraine and Russia, Russian challenges with mobilization of manpower as well as Ukraine's difficulties with both manpower and training as well as absorbing some of the high end equipment they have received from NATO allies and other partners. They consider the current state of the battlefield, the Kursk offensive by Ukrainian forces and some of the flaws in US and NATO military advice and decision-making during the course of the war. https://www.thebulwark.com/p/liz-cheney-on-american-authoritarianism-d00 War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict: https://a.co/d/5LKv7m3  The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire https://a.co/d/0AoPXRR Mick's Substack: https://mickryan.substack.com Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot note the sad commemoration of the Hamas attack on Israel and the consequences that came in its wake. They touch on the shocking nature of the sexual violence, the denial of the attack and the reality of the horrific violence as well as the explosion of anti-semitism internaionally and, in particular, on US college campuses, they discuss the Israeli successes in attacking the Hezbollah leadership and military infrastructure in Lebanon (and the blindspot with regard to Hamas that the successes against Hezbollah represent). They also assess the Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel, what it reveals about the state of Israel's layered, integrated air and missile defense systems (Arrow, David's Sling, and Iron Dome) as well as the prospects for both Israel's and the U.S. responses. They discuss the impact of lame duck status on the Biden Administration's diplomatic efforts, the difficulty that the BIden team seems to have in moving to Plan B when their initial efforts are stymied, and the curious lack of empathy for allies and partners strategic circumstances despite the Administration's lauding of alliances in the abstract. Finally, they discuss Seth Jones's recent Foreign Affairs article on the PRC's industrial war footing, how easily military technology yields military capability and how America's adversaries might take advantage of a chaotic, post-election transition period. Seth Jones on China's War Footing: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/china-ready-war-america-is-not-seth-jones Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot welcome back Anne Applebaum, Pultizer and Duff Cooper Prize Winning author of Gulag and Red Famine and currently staff writer with The Atlantic and senior fellow at the Agora Institute at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. They discuss Anne's new book Autocracy Inc: The Dictators who Want to Run the World. They examine the threat that autocratic regimes represent to their own citizens at home and to liberal democracy abroad, the West's slowness to recognize the threat that the authoritarians represent, the excessive optimism that (after the end of the Cold War and with the advent of globalization) liberal democratic ideals would triumph without recognizing the danger that authoritarian, illiberal ideas might flow into democracies, whether or not the authoritarians think they are winning and how they measure success, Russia's role in prompting much of the authoritarian offensive and the role of western institutions in facilitating the emergence of Russia as a personalist, authoritarian mafia state, the weaknesses of the authoritarians and how the western democracies might go on the offensive against the political warfare being waged daily by the authoritarians against the democracies, and the effort to obliterate truth and promote hopelessness and cynicism in citizens in democracies and setting them against one another.   Autocracy, Inc.: The Dictators Who Want to Run the World: https://a.co/d/ifaCL3E Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot welcome back Phillips Payson O'Brien to Shield of the Republic. Phil is the author of The Strategists: Churchill, Stalin, Roosevelt, Mussolini and Hitler - How War Made Them and How They Made War (New York, Dutton, 2024) as well as the co-author with Eliot of The Russia-Ukraine War and a Study in Analytic Failure, a new report from CSIS. They discuss Phil's earlier work on World War II that focused on air and seapower and the competition in industrial production between the Allies and the Axis, the formative role of World War I experiences on all of these World War II leaders, the role of will as opposed to a focus on material production as a differentiator between the two sides in World War 2, Hitler's (and others') "magical thinking" about strategy, Churchill's understudied role as Minister of Munitions during World War 1, FDR's role in 1916 Naval Preparedness program, Stalin's (and Putin's) historical mythologizing, the reasons for analytic failure at the outset of the Russia-Ukraine war, and prospects for escalation (and strategy) between Israel and Hezbollah/Iran. The Strategists: Churchill, Stalin, Roosevelt, Mussolini, and Hitler--How War Made Them and How They Made War https://a.co/d/14ip0sY How the War Was Won: Air-Sea Power and Allied Victory in World War II https://a.co/d/erLbwrf Report Launch: The Russia-Ukraine War and a Study in Analytic Failure https://www.csis.org/events/report-launch-russia-ukraine-war-and-study-analytic-failure Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot provide their thumbnail review of the Trump-Harris debate and then welcome their special guest Lindsay Chervinsky, the Executive Director of the George Washington Presidential Library at Mount Vernon and the author the new book Making the Presidency: John Adams and the Precedents that Forged a Republic (New York: Oxford University Press, 2024). They discuss the role of the January 6th insurrection in sparking her interest in the peaceful transfer of power in the United States and the first instance of a transfer via election in 1800. She discusses how this perspective provided new insight into understanding John Adams's Presidency which is frequently depicted as a failure but which successfully resolved the Quasi-War with France in the late 1790s, established the norms of civilian oversight of the military and Presidential command of foreign policy and control of the executive departments of government. They discuss the political intriguing of Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson who sought to undermine Adams, the fears of a standing army, the extremism of the "Arch Federalists" and the violent rhetorical excesses of factionalism in the party, the role of the French Revolution and immigration in American politics in the early Republic, and ultimately how Adams put country over party and personal political success to establish the norms of a peaceful transfer of power. Finally, she discusses how the death throes of the Federalist Party (and later the Whigs) might shed light on possible futures for the GOP. Making the Presidency: John Adams and the Precedents That Forged the Republic: https://a.co/d/3v539F7 What History Tells Us Might Happen to the Republican Party: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/history-political-parties-republican-gop Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot pay homage to Daily Telegraph journalist and podcaster David Knowles who was the driving force behind the podcast, Ukraine: The Latest, on which Eliot has appeared several times. They also discuss the intensifying cooperation among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea including the just announced intensified schedule of joint Sino-Russian military exercises and Iran's transfer of medium range Fateh 360 ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine. They consider the historical analogies for this type of alliance/coalition and, in particular, the ideological underpinnings of the alignment, as well as the tightening institutional links among these nations. They discuss the new JINSA report on Iran's advancing nuclear program as well as the challenges facing U.S. extended nuclear deterrence. They also discuss increasing instances of state failure around the world in Sudan, Lebanon, Venezuela, Somalia, the Sahel and the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the relationship of this phenomenon to the retrograde of American power and that of its allies in Britain and France around the world. Finally, they discuss the Marquis de Custine's writings on Russian national character as well as takedowns of Tucker Carlson's holocaust denying, Churchill bashing guest Daryl Cooper. Eliot's Latest in the Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/09/british-foreign-secretary-david-lammy-israel-speech/679729/ JINSA's Iran Nuclear Report: https://jinsa.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/JINSA-Why-the-Next-President-Should-Start-Worrying-and-Fear-the-Iran-Bomb-2.pdf Sergei Lebedev on Navalny: https://libertiesjournal.com/articles/the-heroic-illusion-of-alexei-navalny/ Cathy Young on Tucker Carlson/Churchill: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/tucker-carlson-and-the-beer-hall-putz-darryl-cooper Andrew Roberts on Churchill: https://freebeacon.com/culture/no-churchill-was-not-the-villain/ Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric welcomes back Eliot from his trip to the High North in Svalbard, Norway where he was attending a workshop on Nordic-Baltic views on European security. Eliot discusses the views of the Nordic countries vis a vis Russia, the role of climate change in the Arctic, and great power competition in that region. They also discuss Eliot's recent Atlantic piece on What Kamala Harris might face with regards to foreign policy if she is elected in November notably including: the dangerous world we face, the chronic underfunding of the nation's defense budget, and the priors of the Obama and Biden alumni who will likely populate a Harris administration. They discuss the lack of debate about national security issues so far in the Presidential campaign and the Reaganesque "mood music" on defense at the DNC with speeches on Thursday night by the Bulwark's own Adam Kinzinger, former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta quoting Reagan, and finally the Vice President's commitment to maintaining the strongest and most lethal military in the world. They discuss the British Foreign Secretary's statement announcing the suspension of some 30 odd licenses for British defense goods to Israel, its spectacular bad timing and what it might portend for the US-UK "special relationship." Finally, they discuss the situation in Ukraine including the Kursk incursion by Ukrainian forces, the marked but costly progress of Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine, the meaning of "strategic" terrain and what the Ukrainian theory of victory might be. Eliot's Piece in The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/09/kamala-harris-foreign-policy-challenge/679678/ Phillips OBrien on Strategy: https://open.substack.com/pub/phillipspobrien/p/strategic-is-more-than-lines-on-a Occupied Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfqRRHaFyJg Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric welcomes back Michael Mandelbaum, author and Christian A. Herter Professor Emeritus of American Foreign Policy at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.  Michael is the author of the new book The Titans of the Twentieth Century: How They Made History and the History they Made (New York: Oxford University Press, 2024). His book is a study of the interaction between individuals and the structural forces of history with essays on Woodrow Wilson, Vladimir Lenin, Adolph Hitler, Winston Churchill, FDR, Mohandas Gandhi, David Ben Gurion and Mao tse-Tung. They discuss the circumstances that allowed these figures to exercise enormous influence on the course of history in the 20th century, the role of will and will to power in driving historical change, the imprint that Lenin left on the Soviet Union, the continued influence of Woodrow Wilson on American internationalism of both the liberal and conservative variety, the role of ideas in politics and the danger of political figures committed to ideas and unrestrained by countervailing forces, the unique preparation of Churchill and FDR for wartime leadership, why these figures seem so much more substantive than today's political leaders and why all of the 8 leaders under consideration would likely see today's world as a failure of their efforts.    The Titans of the Twentieth Century: How They Made History and the History They Made: https://a.co/d/aylEsW4 Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot host historian Luke Nichter in a special convention episode that looks back at the last time the Democrats hosted a national convention in Chicago: 1968. Nichter is the James H. Cavanaugh Chair in Presidential Studies and Professor of History at Chapman University and author of The Year that Broke Politics: Collusion and Chaos in the Presidential Election of 1968 (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2023). The group discusses the dramatic circumstances of the 1968 election and the veracity of conventional wisdom about the consequential year. Additionally they cover the pall that the Vietnam War cast over the election and dissect the personal relationships between Johnson and Kennedy, Johnson and Eugene McCarthy, Johnson and his Vice President Hubert Humphrey and the wary, but respectful relationship between Nixon and Johnson. They cover the unique relationship that Billy Graham had with LBJ, Nixon, and Humphrey and probe the nuances of the Wallace phenomenon. They further discuss the difficulties that Humphrey had running as a sitting Vice President taking credit for the achievements of the Johnson Administration while at the same time distancing himself from an unpopular incumbent. The Year That Broke Politics: Collusion and Chaos in the Presidential Election of 1968: https://a.co/d/9DO6moy Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric welcomes historian Timothy Ryback, the Co-Founder and Director of the Institute for Historical Justice and Reconciliation in the Hague. He has been Director and Vice President of the Salzburg Seminar and a lecturer in History at Harvard University and is the author of Takeover: Hitler's Final Rise to Power (New York:  Alfred A. Knopf, 2024). They discuss why Tim wrote this book and why it seems especially timely now, the political and historical contingency of Hitler's ability to seize power and why it resulted not just from large historical forces but by a series of decisions by individual players in the drama. The roles of President Hindenberg, Chancellor Franz Von Papen, Chancellor Kurt von Schleicher, and media mogul and nationalist party leader Alfred Hugenberg in the decisions that led Hitler to the Chancellery and the fact that the Nazis never commanded more than 37% of the vote in Germany. They touch on the role of political parties, political violence and the role of big business in the rise of Hitler as well as the critique of liberalism that Hitler and others shared of liberal democracy in Weimar Germany and its resonance in contemporary U.S. politics with figures like Peter Thiel and JD Vance. Takeover: Hitler's Final Rise to Power: https://a.co/d/4ZRUL5J https://www.theunpopulist.net/p/is-the-far-right-channeling-german Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot discuss the multinational hostage return deal with Russia and talk about what it reveals about the Russia and the Putin regime, the diplomatic skill in pulling it off and the moral calculus between the imperative of getting wrongly accused American citizens home and the danger of political moral hazard by encouraging Putin to take more "hostages" in the future. They also discuss the Israeli strikes in Beirut and Tehran that eliminated Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr (one of the terrorists who carried out the Marine Barracks bombing in 1983) and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh as well as the news that military intelligence has now confirmed that an earlier strike in July killed Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif. They discuss what this reveals about Israeli intelligence capabilities as well as the prospects for Iranian retaliation and the possibility of a wider regional war. Finally, they discuss the recent release of the National Defense Strategy Commission (Eric served as Vice-Chair of the group) report on the 2022 Biden Administration National Defense Strategy. They discuss the Commission's criticisms of the strategy and the need for a force planning construct that foresees U.S. military presence in three key theaters (Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific) as well as the need for additional resources for defense to meet the most challenging international security environment that the nation has faced since the end of the Second World War. Commission on the National Defense Strategy Report: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/misc/MSA3057-4/RAND_MSA3057-4.pdf Eric's SASC Testimony: https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/to-receive-testimony-on-the-findings-and-recommendations-of-the-commission-on-the-national-defense-strategy

Eric and Eliot host James Graham Wilson, an historian in the Department of State's Historian's Office to discuss his new book America's Cold Warrior: Paul Nitze and National Security From Roosevelt to Reagan. They discuss Nitze's background as an America First supporter between the wars, his anti-Semitism and his family's connection to the Black Tom sabotage incident during World War I. They talk about his pioneering work as a national security professional on the Strategic bombing survey during and after World War II as well as his role in drafting NSC 68 during the Truman Administration, his vexed personal relations with George Kennan (who he succeeded as Director of Policy Planning at State), Henry Kissinger, and Robert McNamara. His relentless focus on the strategic nuclear balance and the character traits that perhaps kept him from ever becoming the Cabinet Officer he longed to become while nonetheless serving and influencing national security policy for more than 40 years. They close noting that his concerns about nuclear self-deterrence seem eerily relevant in today's circumstances of great power competition. https://a.co/d/5thvl34 Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric and Eliot debate the latter's Atlantic article arguing that a second Trump term might not be that catastrophic on foreign policy. They discuss why people shouldn't catastrophize the possible outcomes, the traditional continuity between Administrations on foreign policy despite overheated partisan campaign rhetoric and the inextricable links between domestic and foreign policy. They discuss potential dire outcomes for Ukraine (and Taiwan), the impact on NATO, possible "adults in the room" in a second term, JD Vance and Don Trump Jr.'s possible roles as gatekeepers and personnel gurus, and Trump's moment of grace after the assasination attempt. They look back on earlier episodes of violence and conspiracy mongering in American history in the 1960s and 1840s and 1850s. Finally, they discuss Kamala Harris's chances against Trump and the likely contours of foreign policy in a Harris Administration. Eliot's Atlantic Article: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/cancel-foreign-policy-apocalypse-donald-trump-ukraine/679038/ Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia

Eric and Eliot host Sergey Radchenko, the Wilson E. Schmidt Distinguished Professor at the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies based in Bologna, Italy. They discuss Sergey's personal story of growing up in Sakhalin in the Soviet Union, living in China, becoming an historian and gaining access to documentary sources in both countries that were heretofore unavailable and which shed new light on the history of the Cold War. The discussion covers ideology vs. realpolitik in explaining Soviet foreign policy, the USSR as both a status quo and revolutionary power, the contingency of historical events, the psychology of Russian and Chinese leaders, the Sino-Soviet rivalry and competition for leadership of the communist world, who was responsible for the outbreak of the Cold War, and how Russia's search for legitimacy, equality with the US and greatness, deeply rooted in Russian imperial and Soviet history has re-emerged in new forms under Vladimir Putin. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric is rejoined by Eliot who has been reconnoitering his old stomping grounds in Boston. They discuss a series of upcoming elections, including in the UK on July 4 where the Tory Party (the oldest political party in the world) looks to be obliterated by a Labour landslide, France where President Macron's "party" looks likely to be squeezed out by Marine Le Pen's renovated version of the old anti-immigrant National Front and a New Popular Front of Leftist parties, and in Iran where reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian has emerged a real threat to conservative forces divided among Saaed Jalili, the former hard-line nuclear negotiator, Parliamentary Speaker Mohammed Qalibaf, and a gaggle of other conservatives amidst broad public apathy and disinterest in the election. They discuss the factors underpinning what seems like a global anti-incumbent wave. They also discuss the prospects for a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon and the prospects for a second Trump term as President.  Eliot believes that while a terrible prospect a second Trump Presidency might not be totally catastrophic both domestically and internationally while Eric argues the case for pessimism. Scheduling Note: Shield of the Republic will be taking a two-week break for the Independence Day holiday. Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Eric welcomes Professor Christopher Lynch, Chair of the Political Science Department at Missouri State University, the editor and translator of the most recent edition of Machiavelli's The Art of War and author of Machiavelli on War (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2023). They discuss Machiavelli as statesman, military leader and diplomat and Machiavelli as Political Philosopher, The Art of War as a treatise on combined arms warfighting, Machiavelli as the father of modern grand strategy, his views on war as revealed not only in the Art of War but his posthumously published works The Prince and The Discourses on Livy, whether Machiavelli was a "teacher of evil," his role as one of the progenitors of "realism" in international affairs, whether his teachings prefigure our modern notions of strategic competition between authoritarian states and liberal democracies and "the Prince's Dilemma" -- or what is the proper relationship between political authorities and military leaders, and both the time-bound and timeless nature of Machiavell's arguments. https://a.co/d/0dxfml05 Shield of the Republic is a Bulwark podcast co-sponsored by the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.