HAWK-EYED

Brad Setser—Senior Fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations (CFR)—joins me to discuss trade deficits, dedollarisation, and debt restructuring issues in countries around the world. 00:00 - Intro00:21 - Brad Setser Welcome 01:43 - Working at the CFR 02:57 - Conducting research on countries04:15 - Sri Lanka Default Crisis + Debt Restructuring 14:45 - Has deglobalization panned out? 19:45 - Can U.S. rely less on China in semiconductor manufacturing? 23:48 - U.S. and China trade imbalances to continue? 26:22 - Longevity of dedollarisation 28:36 - Why reserve currency status does not matter 32:29 - Dedollarisation undermines trade deficit? @BradSetser @VishnuTreasurer

Helene Meisler—columnist for Real Money—joins me to discuss her methodologies for analyzing stocks and her prognostications for the markets, as well as sharing her own experiences covering stocks throughout her career. 00:00 - Intro 00:21 - Helene Meisler Welcome 02:40 - Lessons from analyzing stocks 05:08 - Investor mindset vs. company value 09:10 - How to find edges in efficient market? 12:30 - Flaws of stock metrics 18:45 - Industry-specific analysis? 24:44 - Reasons for overbought markets 28:28 - S&P outlook for 2023 34:10 - Oil market analysis@hmeisler@VishnuTreasurer

Mark Yusko—CEO of Morgancreek Capital Management—joins me to discuss the fallout from FTX/Blockfi and the latest developments in Bitcoin, as well as sharing his experiences as a hedge fund manager. 00:00 - Intro 00:21 - Mark Yusko Welcome 03:02 - Lessons from pioneering endowment model 08:45 - Differences b/w FTX and other crypto 18:48 - Is regulating crypto that easy? 24:06 - Tipping point of crypto cycle approaching? 30:51 - FED Bashing! 39:57 - Flaws in job reporting 43:17 - Inflation longevity @MarkYusko @VishnuTreasurer

Hugh Hendry—former founder of macro hedge fund, Eclectica Asset Management—joins me to discuss the approaches of central banks and his insights into commodities, as well as reflect on the arc of Eclectica.00:00 - Intro01:26 - Hugh Hendry Intro02:20 - Unpacking the term "hedge fund"05:11 - Eclectica as a macro hedge fund07:17 - What is the problem with the FED and Central Banks?14:28 - Market reaction to credit risk + debt levels18:02 - Efficacy of Quantitative Easing22:20 - Rising dollar temporary phenomenon?26:14 - Gold no longer a "safe haven"?31:16 - Bitcoin hype train33:02 - Investing in oil 

In this latest installment, Tuomas Malinen—CEO and Associate Professor—joins me to discuss the controversy surrounding Credit Suisse and the future of European economies, as well as his own experiences running a macro consultancy.00:00 - Podcast Intro00:21 - Tuomas Intro01:35 - Balancing busy life03:25 - Challenges in macro forecasting11:25 - Credit Suisse vs. Lehman Brothers20:10 - Can central banks manage inflation + banking simultaneously?28:11 - Credit Suisse a bad sign for European banking?31:28 - De-globalization impact on European economies34:24 - Steps towards positive European future@mtmalinen   @VishnuTreasurer

In this latest installment, Joseph Politano—Economic Analyst at Apricitas—joins me to discuss the outlook for inflation and the implications of a tight labor market, as well as his own research and experiences. Be sure to check out Joseph's writing on apricitas.io!00:00 - Intro00:21 - Joseph Politano Introduction01:27- Experience working in Uganda04:20 - Inflation here to stay?08:08 - Japan's economic growth model 11:37 - FED approach to inflation black-and-white?15:02 - Future of inflation - how will it differ?20:58 - Cyclical vs. acyclical inflation24:13 - Supply chain impact on inflation26:53 - Labor market reporting 31:38 - Workers' negotiating leverage37:08  - Employers facing recession + higher wages@JoeyPolitano@VishnuTreasurer

In this latest installment, Jim Bianco—President and Founder of Bianco Research—joins me to discuss the fallout from inflation, panic in the FED, and potential implications (hope?) for investors. 00:00 - Intro00:21 - Jim Bianco Introduction01:53 - How do you develop your macro process?03:37 - Biggest challenges that macro strategy presents05:25 - What is the FED targeting with inflation? 08:46 - Current FED rate hike strategy effectiveness13:33 - Inflation and recession here to stay?15:24 - Historic relevance of recession metrics17:35 - Impact on investors 24:32 - Implications of yield curve27:04 - How should investors handle risk?31:10 - Strong dollar = optimism?@biancoresearch@VishnuTreasurer

In this latest installment, Will Diamond—Assistant Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of Business—joins me to discuss his latest area of research, involving convenience yields and interest rates, as well as some of his other involvements in academia.00:20 - Intro02:08 - What goes into deciding your next topic of research?04:35 - Origins behind passion for banking06:06- Defining convenience yields08:23 - Relationships between convenience yields, interest rates, gov't bonds10:11 - Any takeaways from convenience yields in EM's vs developed countries?11:57 - Role of safe asset demand with respect to convenience yields14:32 - How can we improve monetary policy with this knowledge?@wdiamond_econ @VishnuTreasurer

In this latest installment, Lakshman Achuthan—Co-Founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute—joins me to discuss the behavior of economic cycles and the trajectory for inflation, as well as offer his own recession assessment. 00:21 - Intro02:15 - Process of analyzing cycles07:36 - Weighting the composite of recession indicators18:30 - Can policymakers learn from inflation cycles?32:35 -

In this latest installment, Michael Green—Chief Strategist and Senior Portfolio Manager at Simplify Asset Management—joins me to discuss the effects of the FED's policies, the proliferation of passive investing, and the biggest risks to our economy. 00:20 - Intro 05:57 - 2 consecutive quarters negative GDP + inverted yield curve = ?10:09- What inflation benchmark is FED aiming for?13:32 - Interest rate hikes affecting the wrong metric?17:10 -

In this latest installment, Tavi Costa—Partner and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital—joins me to discuss recession implications and the commodity landscape, as well as his macro process. 00:21 - Intro01:23 - What defines your global macro model?04:10 - Underreacting vs. overreacting to macro events08:04 - Oil selloff: kneejerk response to recession or long-term move?10:17 - In the midst of a recession?13:41 - Similarities and differences with the 70's17:32 - Gold and silver: still safe havens?20:01 - Future of energy and agriculture22:34 - Evaluating risk in emerging markets@TaviCosta@VishnuTreasurer

In this latest installment, Karthik Sankaran—Market Strategist at Corpay—joins me to discuss Sri Lanka's impact on other emerging markets, parity between the Euro and the Dollar, and his background in European history and macro strategy.00:21 - Intro04:34 - How has your background in European history cultivated your understanding of global macro?10:44 - Challenges/Lessons from experience in macro strategy14:02 - Factors driving situation in Sri Lanka apply to other emerging markets?16:08 - Debt defaults now a concern for emerging market investing?21:18 -

In this latest installment, Arpit Gupta—Professor of Finance at NYU Stern—joins me to discuss inflation across nations, business models post-COVID, and some of his own research. 00:21 - Intro 00:54 - What goes into deciding your next topic of research?01:50 - Supply shock vs. excess demand: does it make a difference when it comes to inflation?03:09 -

In this latest installment, Cliff Asness—billionaire hedge fund investor and Managing Principal/Co-Founder of AQR Capital Management—joins me to discuss value and momentum investing, market efficiencies, and the biggest lessons he's learned from running a hedge fund. 00:23 - Intro05:38 - Demystifying the "hedge fund" label08:44 - Takeaways from investment management15:16 -

In this latest installment, Lawrence Hamtil—Investment Advisor at Fortune Financial Advisors—joins me to discuss portfolio construction, market uncertainty, and the crypto meltdown. @lhamtil@VishnuTreasurer00:00 - Intro01:52 - How did you get interested in investing?04:15 - How to navigate market full of uncertainties?07:48 - Any truth to 70's comparisons?09:39 - Advantages of sector-neutral portfolio12:25 - Tech selloff - short-term reaction or potential bubble repeat?16:00 - WTF happened with crypto?

In this latest installment, Viral Acharya⁠—Professor⁠ of Finance at NYU Stern, joins me to discuss how India is dealing with oil/inflation issues and what to expect from the U.S. economy in the coming months, as well as reflect on his time as Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. 00:00 - Intro03:32 - Takeaways from Acharya's experience as Deputy Governor of the RBI12:21 - Will the RBI's aggressive approach towards inflation pay off?18:52 - India's bond yield + oil prices going up - long-term issue?24:16 - Will the U.S. actually hit a recession or can we brace the fall? 27:55 - Unpacking the dichotomy of strong (?) labor market with recessionary fears

In this latest installment, world-famous venture capital investor Bill Janeway joins me to discuss the unicorn bubble and the innovation economy, as well as recount stories from his VC experience. Be sure check out Bill's book, "Doing Capitalism in the Innovation Economy" at the link below!https://www.amazon.com/Doing-Capitalism-Innovation-Economy-Reconfiguring/dp/110847127700:00 - Intro02:26 - Bill's journey in venture capital + funny stories10:25 -  Challenges in VC investing20:05 - Ancillary value that VC investors provide to firms27:09 - Unicorn bubble of the 2010's: what makes it different from the previous decade? 35:24 - Will strong private funding continue in tech?37:52 - Breaking down investing in the innovation economy45:51 - The government's role in driving the innovation economy"William H. Janeway has lived a double life of 'theorist-practitioner,' according to the legendary economist Hyman Minsky, who first applied that term to him twenty-five years ago. In his role as 'practitioner,' Bill Janeway has been an active growth equity investor for more than 40 years. He is a senior advisor and managing director of Warburg Pincus, where he has been responsible for building the information technology investment practice, as well as a director of Magnet Systems and O'Reilly Media. As a 'theorist,' he is an affiliated member of the Faculty of Economics of Cambridge University, a member of the board of directors of the Social Science Research Council and the Fields Institute for Research in the Mathematical Sciences, and of the Advisory Board of the Princeton Bendheim Center for Finance. He is a co-founder and member of the Governing Board of the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET), and a member of the Board of Managers of the Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance (CERF). Following publication in November 2012, his book Doing Capitalism in the Innovation Economy: Markets Speculation and the State (Cambridge University Press) became a classic. The fully revised and updated second edition, Doing Capitalism in the Innovation Economy: Reconfiguring the Three-Player Game between Markets, Speculators and the State was published in May 2018." (billjaneway.com)

In this latest installment, Logan Mohtashami—Lead Analyst for HousingWire—joins me to discuss the historic rise of mortgage rates, the hysteria over a potential housing bubble, and the implications of the housing supply shortage. Be sure to check out the rest of Logan's work at the link below!https://www.housingwire.com/tag/logan-mohtashami/00:00 - Intro01:25 - Unpacking strong mortgage demand in the face of rising mortgage rates03:54  - Latest drop in mortgage applications: too soon to rush to judgement?06:01 - Comparisons to the 2000's bubbles: in-bounds or out-of-bounds?09:07 - Recessionary fears washing over participants in the housing market?11:54 - Putting common housing metrics in context13:47 - Effects of additional interest rate hike on the housing market16:49 - How do we address the housing supply shortgage?

A taste of what this podcast is all about!

In this latest installment, Katharina Pistor—Professor of Comparative Law at Columbia Law School—joins me to discuss the role of law in creating inequality, how corporations continue to manipulate it, and what we can do to increase its effectiveness.

In this latest installment, Surjit Bhalla—Executive Director of the IMF for India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka—joins me to discuss India's eradication of extreme poverty, its record-high tax revenue and exports, and the future outlook of the country.

In this latest installment, Claudia Sahm, founder of Stay-at-Home Macro Consulting and former Federal Reserve and White House economist, joins me to discuss the possibility of an impending recession, the aftermath of last summer's unemployment benefit cuts, and the biggest issue that the FED must address now. 

In this latest installment, Palak Patel—author of The Tyranny of Nations—joins me to discuss the current state of emerging markets, their future outlook, and the strategies behind investing in them. Link to Palak's book below! https://www.amazon.com/Tyranny-Nations-Shaped-Todays-Economy/dp/1736603930

In this latest installment, Girish Muckai, Chief Sales & Marketing Officer at HEAL Software, joins me to discuss the expansion of Artificial Intelligence in the wake of COVID, the moral and legal implications of AI, and the future of machine learning.

In this latest installment, Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Advisor of India, joins me to discuss the recent success story of India's economy, how it can combat a prevailing inflation issue, and the recovery landscape of small businesses.

In this latest installment, Prof. Anu Nagarajan, Professor of Strategy at the Ross School of Business, joins me to discuss the supply chain crisis, as we dive into gas prices and the future of electric vehicles.

Our guest for this latest installment is David Levy, Chief Executive Officer of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, an economics consulting firm. Tune in to hear our discussion about the widespread uncertainty in global markets and what that means for investors and consumers.

University of Michigan, School of Music, Theater and Dance