The BashCast

Agenda: [00:01:57] - Tom walks a couple of miles in the freezing cold before realising he's forgotten his shoes [00:16:20] - Europa edges on FCSB vs Man United, goals across the games and a review of PSV vs Liverpool [00:35:03] - Tom discusses a long losing run to start 2025 [00:41:36] - A review of the market performance for goals, corners,player cards and shots on target [00:52:49] - And some value and bets in this years 2025 Six Nations  #bettingat100.1andabove Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net Find out more about the SmartBash: https://smart-bash.com/ Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee

Agenda: [00:02:05] - Tom takes his dog for a walk and gets in a confrontation with a lady [00:20:15] - Changing times at bookiebashing [00:27:06] - A champions league mistake with Young Boys v Atalanta that lands and a review of the First Goalscorer calculation [00:43:07] - A first goal scorer edge in Crvena Zvedvedaveda [00:47:16] - The Circasports Survivor contest in Nevaga #bettingat100.1andabove Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net Find out more about the SmartBash: https://smart-bash.com/ Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee

[00:02:00] - Tom goes to see Moby and calls for an end to the scam that is discretionary services charges at restaurants [00:22:50] - Explaining the concept of normalisation in data organisation and how it can be applied to betting for an edge [00:39:34] - A deep dive into the inter-relationships between Team Most Shots on Target and Team to Win and whether there is a decent bet on Stoke vs Hull tonight #bettingat100.1andabove Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee

Agenda: [00:02:00] - Look out, because Tom is back from the summer break and has switched on the projector to recount tales of surfing, zombies and mushroom pizza [00:20:56] - We look further back to the SmartBash 2024 and review the positives, the negatives and a request for a couple to get in touch [00:37:12] - The Gambling Reform Summit has taken place in Westminster this September, has any apparent value come from it? [00:53:14] - We finish with a look at a heater that has started off Toms Autumn Season of betting. #bettingat100.1andabove Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee

Agenda: [00:02:02] - Tom finds out Environmental Services are after him [00:08:05] - 2024 Smart Betting Club Awards - The BashCast is back [00:22:52] - More bad behaviour on Social Media - Fanwave Digital, Badmanbetting, Racing Blogger and Pro Sports Advice [00:56:08] - Is the Gambling Commission investigation into insider betting on the election a waste of time? #bettingat100.1andabove Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net Find out more about the SmartBash: https://smart-bash.com/ Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee 

Agenda: [00:01:54] - We discuss the long-short paradox of time and how it applies to betting [00:10:50] - Tom figures out he can still bet on Eurovision after he knows the result, but should he? [00:20:13] - An exchange edge on the 8 place market in golf that everyone can play in [00:33:18] - The good and the bad from the goalscorer betting worlds as Tom gets Lucky [00:46:29] - And we finish with a look at the charlatans at the Guardian and the anything-but Charlatans at the SmartBash #bettingat100.1andabove   Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net Find out more about the SmartBash: https://smart-bash.com/ Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee  

Agenda: [00:02:30] Tom goes to Disneyland, finds it has the lowest ROI of anything in the world [00:15:48] My Gambling history – where I started ,how I met some syndicates, why Duncan started bookiebashing in my kitchen and whether we can speak from any position of authority [00:46:14] SmartBash 2024 – tickets are selling fast, we have some big names that will be announced soon, big panels and bigger discussions planed at the UKs premier punter focussed networking event [01:02:01] Udinese v Bologna -= an example of where huge equite in a game where big value bets don't mean nothing to the overall profit/loss picture [01:16:20] Betting isn't for everyone – why you shouldn't tell anyone you're successful at punting on sports [01:31:39] From across the pond – gambling stories from the NFL and MLB that will make your eyes water #bettingat100.1andabove NB: We know there are some sound issues on the BashCast where some segments are loud and others are quieter. This is being worked on for future episodes! Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net Find out more about the SmartBash: https://smart-bash.com/ Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee 

Agenda: [00:01:55] - Toms answers a question from a Pinnacle Odds Compiler over M25 roadworks [00:15:36] - Jesse May and Ronan join us for a sneaky peak chat about Smart Bash 2024 (in association with Matchbook) this summer – and this time, everyone is invited to the party [00:30:32] - A profit loss review for Toms gambling in shops and on exchanges in February and March [00:49:58] - Cheltenham Festival Wrap Up [01:06:05] - Is over 3.5 the new over 2.5? What is going on with premiership goals this season Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net Find out more about the SmartBash: https://smart-bash.com/ #bettingat100.1andabove Twitter BB: https://twitter.com/bookiebashnet Twitter Tom: https://twitter.com/Tombrownlee

Agenda: [00:01:40] - Tom quits drinking only to be disappointed in the entire human race [00:10:10] - Cheltenham festival is round the corner - we look at tipsters, who you can trust and who you cannot trust [00:35:27] - A shift in liquiidty at the exchanges as Matchbook, Betdaq and Smarkets catch ground on Betfair [00:48:54] - Abbie MacGregor and Andrew Woodman off of the Gamblers Consumer Forum join us to discuss last weeks debate on affordability checks in gambling at Parliament Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net #bettingat100.1andabove https://gamblersconsumerforum.com/ https://twitter.com/GamblersCForum 

Agenda: [00:01:40] - Tom recounts the time when he caused the meltdown of the cloakroom ticketing system at the Zanzibar nightclub in 1996. [00:15:10] - We revisit @AndryRobsonTips after the last BashCast and have more information about the origins of these tweets. [00:41:00] - We break down some of the mathematics of the enhanced specials at betdaq to show how to find value with or without a bookiebashing subscription. [00:58:11] - New scandals are breaking in the online poker world [01:21:35] - Tales of Duncan of Yore - Part 2 Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net #bettingat100.1andabove 

Agenda:   [00:01:55] - Toms Xmas Dinner ends up on the kitchen floor [00:09:03] - An in depth review of the mathematics and morals of @AndyRobsonTips [00:51:27] - Pricing Luke Littler in the PDC World Championships [01:12:47] - Exchange edges and a partnership with Betdaq [01:35:28] - A looks at my first shop bets of the year and has anything changed in the models for 2024? [01:54:00] - Tales of Duncan of Yore - a new feature on the BashCast   Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net

Agenda: We are joined by Jon Roberts from Predictology. In this episode we discuss I'm a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here, skillsets for beating the markets, the logistics of reliable odds collection, modelling football, historical trending, pre-match vs inplay edges and the all important 2023 BashCast Xmas Quiz. https://www.predictology.co/ https://www.youtube.com/@predictology https://www.bookiebashing.net/ #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda:   [00:01:47] - Toms recounts a ten pin bowling evening that ends with putting someone in hospital [00:12:43] - Horse racing ups and downs through the year and optimising horses by odds band [00:28:49] - Newcastle play Dortmund in the Champions League and we look at edges in the Players xG [00:44:50] - A consultation on the bookiebashing bet tracker and whether it does more harm than good [01:18:53] - A Prisoners Dilemma as two advantage players find a loophole in video poker machines   #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda: [00:01:59] - Tom donates some money from a Mudryk win and recounts a story when he nearly caused a racial riot [00:13:08] - A Ryder Cup summary, a few decent edges and angles and a missed opportunity [00:34:57] - Betfred have a new Hotshots coupon in shops, how to calculate the value in a team to have the most goals on a Champions League evening [00:52:10] - New Bookiebashing member Hussain joins us to share with us some $$$ success stories from his first few months value betting [01:08:45] - The Gambling Commission send an extraordinary letter to the Racing Post. Can the Can Can man save us? #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda: [00:01:46] - Tom gets into trouble with an exotic bird over the summer holidays [00:21:00] - The Rugby World Cup – modelling points with a negative binomial probability, Fijian value + the xPlayerTries model [00:39:19] - Thrill Seeker. Disrupter. Charlatan - a copycat challenges what others think is possible by copying our horse racing tracker. We explain why it doesn't have much chance [01:11:23] - And Aaron Rodgers achilles heel seems to be voided prop bets. #bettingat100.1andabove 

Agenda:   [00:01:58] - Tom recaps the Smart-Bash event, the positives, the negatives, the-EV blackjack and the Jaeger Bombs that cost £1500 [00:33:04] - The Womens World Cup is underway – what edges are we looking at and given the goals in 2019 will it be overs and overs and overs and overs? [00:49:17] -We have an email segment – some praise, some trolls, feedback from the BTC segment in the last BashCast and a technical question around Closing Line Value [01:21:20] - And some words of honesty ahead of the school summer holiday break as Tom goes on the hunt for a new best friend. All of that and more coming up in the BashCast this afternoon   #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda: [00:02:20] - Tom heads to a poker tournament looking for back to back victories [00:23:20] - Golf betting on the exchange - Pete from SBC joins us to discuss his strategies and fantasy golf betting [00:53:00] - Twitter - an Icy tweet is negative, Tom comments on it [01:00:30] - New tools released at bookiebashing this summer [01:08:00] - Shots Fired - p-values and edges is there an edge at this trading community or is it smoke and mirrors? What is going on?  #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda: [00:02:11] - Tom fails to find panko breadcrumbs during a camping trip [00:16:15] - Golf betting – a pointless exercise into working out which players have the lowest and the highest ROI [00:32:11] - Horse racing – multiple wins to talk about - five figures and a six figures [00:52:17] - Hey Jude – mega value with Bellingham and how we can use seemingly useless palps to find value in other areas [01:01:16] - Shots on Target – A review of all historical lines between 2020 and 2023 and analysis of where bookmakers place bias within their over/under margins in player stats. #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda: [00:02:00] - Tom goes to Portugal, sees naked people and gets diagnosed with ADHD [00:06:52] - The unfortunate tale of a messy wedding, a headbutt and a stolen coat [00:14:39] -  Bet histories – football p/l, Ireland vs France and where the player xG normalisation edges really exist [00:41:42] - Steamers – are they an edge? Two contradictory analyses and a new bookiebashing tool [00:59:12] - The story of the hole in one betting coup   #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda: [00:02:06] - Parent Child parking at Morrisons and the theory of the unreturned shopping Trolley [00:12:40] - Tom takes a short trip to Aleppo in Syria [00:25:35] - Cheltenham festival - a day to day breakdown and review of the performance of the BB Racing Tracker [00:54:05] - We only sing when we're winning - so how has golf been in 2023? [01:10:10] - DDHH - a 12 month, 560 bet review of ROI and swinginess [01:23:50] - The professional betting GOAT and an insight into a game changing blackjack strategy #bettingat100.1andabove 

Agenda: [01:50] Toms breaks his knee AND his hand before the annual golf shield, then loses headphones [12:10] Horse racing – comparing the ROI of horses between the exchange and BBAlgo in 2023 [26:30] Soft Online Bookmakers - 7 suggestions for slowing down restrictions [42:00] The Player xG Model – we're nearing the final corner with lineups and scorecast models added [54:39] A Golf update – downswings and sanitary products [01:08:20] William Hill suffer a massive outage during the Superbowl, American customers can't get paid [01:16:10] WSOP Schedule – Are we playing it this year? #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda: [00:02:17} Toms Xmas Dinner – what he got right, what he got wrong and how everybody let him down [00:09:41]PDC World Championships – who's in charge? Me or the devil. Correct score markets, 180s, session bets and two different betting datasets, a losing one and a winning one [00:32:22] Continuation of the Player xG side project, we talk APIs for team news, first Goalscorer EV on the exchanges, the normalisation of data and the difficulties both with modelling scorecast and monitoring ROI [00:45:22} Combobets blog mistake – Tom cocks up a combobets blog review then goes out on the piss. An explanation of those events right here and a break down combobets by bookmaker and type and why reporting is by game and not by bet [01:04:05] Drama at Unabated and clickbait faux outrage over a 2011 palp [01:49:04] A 2023 roadmap - R&D projects, big data, how to get in touch for 15 minute clinic calls with Tom (email Ivna@bookiebashing.net to schedule) #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda:   [00:02:00] Tom reviews his shop and exchange p/l after betting on all 64 World Cup Matches [00:23:05] Golf Results 2022 - A year in review - is it time to ditch the DP World Tour? [00:41:00] PDC Darts World Championships [00:50:54] Shots on Target - A bet history in the negative   #bettingat100.1 and above

Agenda:   [00:02:06] Tom gets kicked by a 17 year old, goes to the pub then breaks a rib [00:11:20] The golf model hits an extreme bout of positive variance but should we give up on the DP World Tour? [00:29:27] England v Iran aftertiming summary - Jude Bellingham, Taremi 2+, Kane Shot on Target [00:34:15] Tom goes through why he thinks Awarded Penalty is a bet at 6/4 in any game [00:41:57] Who to look out for for First Goalscorers   #bettingat100.1 and above

Agenda: [00:01:56} How does a four year old kill bad guys? [00:05:06] A profit loss update from Toms betting for October/November [00:36:17] The World Cup 2022 Preview - edges and angles [01:02:45] Don't be one of these three idiots [01:18:13} Bookiebashing bet tracker updates - Group trackers #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda:   [02:10] - Tom has had enough and switched off the news [14:44] - Horse racing - estimating ROI with the +EV Lucky 15 lottery tickets [28:15] - The golf hits a high variance period, but the "almost" wins are stacking up [41:30] - Review of the coupons Aug-Sep and reports of a 24,000/1 tester bet landing [51:44] - An empirical analysis to estimate underdisposition in the frequency of player braces and hattricks [1:17:42} - J4o vs 78s - the poker world is rocked by a cheating scandal   #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda: 2:20 - Tom goes surfing and meets campsite Hitler 27:30 - Should over 3.5 goals be odds on with xG of 3.54? 40:00 - Big Horse Racing win and why recorded ROI is higher than expected ROI 56:00 - Twitch clamp down on gambling 1:20:30 - Draftkings get stung on an early payout promotion in the NFL 1:29:40 - Player xG - lineup enhancements and confidence questions 1:55:00 - How to deal with losing runs #bettingat100.1andabove

--Reuploaded due to technical issues-- Warning: Tom hasn't placed a bet since the previous episode. Listen at your own risk. Agenda: Tom recalls a Welsh Odyssey from a hot summer on the road Is Poisson is suitable model for estimating Shots on Target? A real world history using Mo Salah Site Stability, expectations and compensation A history of Vegas Dave - should we have included him on an article about gamblers? Tom react to the Social Media comments following the Betting People interviews #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda:   Tom suffers a warm up injury ahead of Mindless Wanderers v Wychbold Old Boys Charity match Bookiebashing support system gets a revamp New model – Handicaps tool England Women v Switzerland Women – is the lack of confidence in modelling a good thing or a bad thing? Tom wins a $7.50 1,068 person heads up hyper turbo bounty tournament for $1,360 in bounties whilst babysitting   #bettingat100.1andabove

 Agenda: Tom goes camping and doesn't know he hit a winner in the golf for days Tom meets a group of 6-a-side lads discussing their terrible recreational mug bets on the PGA, doesn't know what to say Bookiebashing Charity 7-a-side to be held on the 24th June: https://www.justgiving.com/crowdfunding/mindless-wanderers-ukraine-fundraising 20 DDHH bets at 90% ROI to review Both Bologna and Verona score in each half with outrageous value on the shop coupons Why NatWest want to kill babies   #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda: Tom goes to turkey and gets annoyed by British tourists and then scammed The SBC Betting Awards:T Pete Ling joins us for a chat Golf betting: why you can't trust anybody Double Delight Hattrick Heaven: how to calculate the EV Why you're a prick: Part 4 #bettingat100.1andabove

 Agenda: Tom experiences a -EV trip to HobbyCraft after flirting with a 75 year old A BookieBashing subscriber hits the largest win of his betting career FTSIncome hold a networking event in Manchester and we were invited to join them The art of Edge Identification – 5 different types of Edge in Sports Advantage Play US Masters preview – Metrics, each way betting, to win, first round leader and Fantasy Draft Golf selections   #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda Neil Channing writes about a once in a generation chance to get things right We don't lose golf playoffs! But what percentile are we running hot on them? A breakdown of how to quantify the risk of a player not starting Jason Trost joins us on the BashCast to discuss a heap of Smarkets related topics Smarkets and Bookiebashing both experience Cheltenham Day 1 downtime   #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda Tom gets headbutted by a three year old Tom gets threatened by a guy in a polo shirt Tom gets threatened outside a club in a skiing resort Nathan from OddsHawk joins us to discuss the Oddshawk API feed for horse racing - available to all Are multiples better than singles? What is the best multiple? Value betting First Goalscorer on the exchange   #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda Problem gambling and restrictions Tom orders 3 chilli margaritas in Bali Malaysian businessman sues Aspinalls for £3.9 million Stephen Chidwick is better at poker than you are   #BettingAt100.1AndAbove

Agenda: 1. Tom is fed up with the all the new gambling prohibition groups that have cropped up 2. A trip to Simply Red involves a -EV experience with a tout 3. The Player xG model evolves, goes backwards, but makes money regardless 4. Bet365 enter the boosts market, value around for those providing liquidity to the arbys 5. Win both Halves celebrates its 1,000th bet birthday so we look at ROI and potential improvements 6. Something quite extraordinary happens across the last 7 golf tournaments   Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net   #BettingAt100.1AndAbove        

Agenda After 2.5 years Tom is wearing glasses again, and has a disaster on Day 1 Coronavirus hits the team A history of BookieBashing and a timelines of tools and trackers How we create an edge in Shots on Target bets both at bookmaker and on exchange Bankroll Management - an analysis of Unit Loss, Unit Win and Kelly staking plans on real life betting histories Why You're A Prick returns #Bettingat100.1andabove

In this weeks Agenda: Stupid bike guy tries to ruin Toms Christmas Losing runs through the festive period Virtual Doubles and insane variance The FA Cup 3rd Round re-capped Unlucky Lucky 15 (horses) and an £18,000 change of mind Lucky Lucky 15 (football) The African Cup of Unders 2022 Andrew Woodman off of Politics joins us for a chat about Single Customer View, Source of Wealth and changes in legislation   #BettingAt100.1AndAbove

A Festive BashCast Christmas Chatter with Matthew Trenhaile: Modelling expected goals Modelling BTTS in big fav/dog games Market compilation and why you can't be a hero Artificial Intelligence in profiling customers Markov Chains in Tennis Modelling Winning without beating the closing line Rebasing inplay The softness of half time numbers ROI vs Odds Magnitude Exactly how did East 17s Brian Harvey run over his own foot #bettingat100.01andabove

Agenda Tom wins the Selly Oak Shield for the first time in history Success on the #WhatOddsPaddys in the World Cup Qualifiers and why we should be looking forward to these games Ireland vs New Zealand Portugal vs Serbia Three different concepts for managing runners - the Orwellian, Thatcherite and Marxist forms of managing a gambling team 180s and 170s in the PDC World Championship 2022    

Betting analyst and author Joseph Buchdahl joins the BashCast for a chat about: The Monte Carlo Casino, August 18th 1913 Monte Carlo or Bust - the writing process The Wisdom of the Crowd Betting Theory Bias - is estimating bias Maths, Science, Art or a bit of all? Monte Carlo Simulations and why every bettor should choose them Where the Sharps are - using a Weibull probability distribution for estimating goals in football Pinnacle Articles - the writing process Libertarianism vs gambling - should we be free to decide how much we can bet? #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda DraftKings Equity in Golf and the FBWC Farcical Betting World Championships 2021 England vs Andorra - calculating BTTS in difficult markets when a team is very unlikely to score Interview with McLovin - bookiebashing member McLovin joins us to discuss technology, artificial intelligence and OCR and how we can see a vast improvement and increase in the value and equity from coupons moving forward #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda   Tom is involved in a near car crash and loses his cool Busting a bankroll - it happens to the best of us RIP Great Sports Offers Experimental Coupons - on the search for value in new markets Patterns in randomness and the horse racing tracker ROI Why You're a Prick Returns   Want to send an email to the mailbag? tom@bookiebashing.net

This weeks agenda Tom discusses his weekend from hell Mistakes in betting - accuracy vs volume 0 letters in the mailbag. Please send any praise, questions, critique or money to tom@bookiebashing.net An insane tweet and a need for an Institute amongst gamblers The next Bond - an update!

This weeks agenda Cristiano Ronaldo returns to the Premiership - we discuss options for modelling Player xG and AGS prices, and a huge exchange price on the Newcastle match The flip side of golf - a downswing in results recently. 2 letters in the mailbag. Please send any praise, questions, critique or money to tom@bookiebashing.net NFL Half TIme Points   betting@100.1andabove

This weeks agenda: 1. Wolves vs Man Utd - wolves are dominant 2. Super Sunday - low volume, high variance in August 3. Tom is furious with a £3k Lucky 15 winner 4. Toms wifes drunk friend turns up at a wedding 5. Two golf winners on the same day 6. Mailbag + a discussion of Discord as a communication platform 7. Betting football coupons for profit  8. Salerntina vs Roma in Serie A #bettingat100.1andabove  

This weeks Agenda A history of golf at the Olympics Korean Military Service Imitation is the most sincerest form of flattery Glorious Goodwood and Favourite Friday   #bettingat100.1andabove

This weeks Agenda Freedom day arrives, but has anything changed? A new bet tracker to be unveiled at bookiebashing capable of tracking a heap more live lines William Hill Court Case - BookieBashers ? - William Hill ? Reasons why you're a pick   #bettingat100.1andabove

This weeks Agenda A recap of FGS steamer hunting in Week 1 of the Euros Quick betting at Ascot, and another Lucky 15 a horses whisker away from a quarter million Another winner in the golf - we look at Variance and ask are we running hot, and if so by how much? Yes Sir I can boogie All night long #bettingat100.1andabove

Agenda 9th June 2021   Wizard of Odds Tweets out a each way betting exam challenge Each way betting on horse racing Each way betting on golf Euros 2020 Preview Segment Angry man Joey Knish gets restricted by Barstools supports A class action lawsuit from gamblers vs PayPal Upcoming sport #betting at 100.1 and above#

The BashCast returns with a fresh look   Agenda 28th May 2021   The Stamford Experiments + Toms local landlady Golf Singles, Doubles and Cink+Catlin land on the same day DDHH with Joelinton Shop Coupons – 500/1 clean sweep Lucky 15s; we miss out on £218,000 by a single place Tom gets into an altercation with an elderly man in a car park and has to run away Cryptocurrencies – volatility, Elon Musk and legitimacy as an investment strategy #betting at 100.1 and above#