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Mike Swanson returns to the show to talk about the state of the economy. He fills Scott in on some of the work he's done analyzing how economies fare once the national debt-to-GDP ratio reaches a certain height. What he's found is that serious issues tend to kick in right at the level the US is projected to hit in 2026. He and Scott discuss this and other topics related to the American economy. Discussed on the show: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio Soylent Green (IMDb) Mike Swanson provides investment advice at wallstreetwindow.com and is the author of The War State: The Cold War Origins Of The Military-Industrial Complex And The Power Elite. He also works with the Neopolis Media Group, a group of historians, educators, authors, researchers, and free speech advocates who endeavor to provide original and engaging content, including The Ochelli Effect, and The Lone Gunman Podcast. This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Robers Brokerage Incorporated; Tom Woods' Liberty Classroom; Libertas Bella; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott. Get Scott's interviews before anyone else! Subscribe to the Substack. Shop Libertarian Institute merch or donate to the show through Patreon, PayPal or Bitcoin: 1DZBZNJrxUhQhEzgDh7k8JXHXRjY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Download Episode. Mike Swanson returns to the show to talk about the state of the economy. He fills Scott in on some of the work he's done analyzing how economies fare once the national debt-to-GDP ratio reaches a certain height. What he's found is that serious issues tend to kick in right at the level the US is projected to hit in 2026. He and Scott discuss this and other topics related to the American economy. Discussed on the show: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises by Ray Dalio Soylent Green (IMDb) Mike Swanson provides investment advice at wallstreetwindow.com and is the author of The War State: The Cold War Origins Of The Military-Industrial Complex And The Power Elite. He also works with the Neopolis Media Group, a group of historians, educators, authors, researchers, and free speech advocates who endeavor to provide original and engaging content, including The Ochelli Effect, and The Lone Gunman Podcast. This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Robers Brokerage Incorporated; Tom Woods' Liberty Classroom; Libertas Bella; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott. Get Scott's interviews before anyone else! Subscribe to the Substack. Shop Libertarian Institute merch or donate to the show through Patreon, PayPal or Bitcoin: 1DZBZNJrxUhQhEzgDh7k8JXHXRjY
Joseph Solis-Mullen joins the show to discuss his new book about China. He and Scott work through some of the most common talking points meant to make the American people fear a noninterventionist approach with China. They also cite a number of popular books about China and explain what they get wrong. Discussed on the show: The Fake China Threat and Its Very Real Danger by Joseph Solis-Mullen Red Dragon Rising by Edward Timperlake and William C. Triplett II “What the Heck is a ‘Scarborough Shoal'…?” (Libertarian Institute) Chip War by Chris Miller The Avoidable War by Kevin Rudd “China: From Death Camp to Civilization” (LewRockwell.com) This Time Is Different by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff 1984 Red Dawn (IMDb) 2012 Red Dawn (IMDb) Joseph Solis-Mullen is a political scientist and author of The Fake China Threat and Its Very Real Danger. Follow all his work at his website. This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Tom Woods' Liberty Classroom; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott. Get Scott's interviews before anyone else! Subscribe to the Substack. Shop Libertarian Institute merch or donate to the show through Patreon, PayPal or Bitcoin: 1DZBZNJrxUhQhEzgDh7k8JXHXRjY Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Download Episode. Joseph Solis-Mullen joins the show to discuss his new book about China. He and Scott work through some of the most common talking points meant to make the American people fear a noninterventionist approach with China. They also cite a number of popular books about China and explain what they get wrong. Discussed on the show: The Fake China Threat and Its Very Real Danger by Joseph Solis-Mullen Red Dragon Rising by Edward Timperlake and William C. Triplett II “What the Heck is a ‘Scarborough Shoal'…?” (Libertarian Institute) Chip War by Chris Miller The Avoidable War by Kevin Rudd “China: From Death Camp to Civilization” (LewRockwell.com) This Time Is Different by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff 1984 Red Dawn (IMDb) 2012 Red Dawn (IMDb) Joseph Solis-Mullen is a political scientist and author of The Fake China Threat and Its Very Real Danger. Follow all his work at his website. This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Tom Woods' Liberty Classroom; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott. Get Scott's interviews before anyone else! Subscribe to the Substack. Shop Libertarian Institute merch or donate to the show through Patreon, PayPal or Bitcoin: 1DZBZNJrxUhQhEzgDh7k8JXHXRjY
There is something between 'snake oil salesmen' and trusted information providers. People giving you folk remedies are generally well-intentioned, but merely lack the background to be truly authoritative about the malady they are trying to cure. So it is with economics, and these days especially with inflation. In this episode, the Inflation Guy gives three current examples of inflation-related advice and popular models that fall into the category of 'inflation folk remedies.' NOTES: Book: This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen M Reinhart and Kenneth S Rogoff Podcast callback: “Ep. 72: Chapwood Index vs CPI – Which is the Better Inflation Index?” Article: “This Statistic Could Be Distorting How We Think About Inflation,” New York Times.com Article: “Disentangling Rent Index Differences: Data, Methods, and Scope”, by Brian Adams, Lara Loewenstein, Hugh Montag, and Randal J. Verbrugge Blog Article: “Multivariate Core Trend Inflation”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
On Jan. 19, the United States officially hit its debt limit. In response, the Treasury Department began using accounting maneuvers known as “extraordinary measures” to continue paying the government's obligations temporarily. But according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, that money could run out as soon as June 1. If the United States hasn't raised or suspended its borrowing cap, known as the debt ceiling, by then, America will default on its debt.But Republicans are currently refusing to raise the debt ceiling until their policy demands are met. Negotiations between House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and the Biden administration are ongoing, but it is very difficult to see a deal that McCarthy's hard-line members would vote for and Biden would sign. Meanwhile, default — and the accompanying economic calamity — draws ever closer.Veronique de Rugy is an economist at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and a nationally syndicated columnist. For years, she's argued that the United States' debt levels are far too high and has defended the debt ceiling as a way to rein them in. I disagree. In my view, the debt ceiling is one of the most absurd and dangerous laws on the books. So I invited her on the show to make her case.But I also wanted to talk about the broader fiscal picture on which this entire fight is predicated. America's debt is currently about 100 percent of the U.S. G.D.P., up from just 35 percent in 2007, and is projected to reach 185 percent by 2052. Meanwhile, Social Security is projected to run out of its cash reserves by 2033, and the trust fund funding Medicare hospital coverage (Medicare Part A) is projected to run out by 2028.What do those numbers actually mean? How worried should we be about them? And what could be done to address our growing debt?Mentioned:“The Debt-Ceiling Fight Is a Symptom of Congress's Disease” by Veronique de Rugy“The Liquidation of Government Debt” by Carmen M. Reinhart and M. Belen SbranciaBook Recommendations:Range by David EpsteinKindly Inquisitors by Jonathan RauchLet Them In by Jason L. RileyThoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Roge Karma. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris, Mary Marge Locker, and Kate Sinclair. Mixing by Jeff Geld. Our production team is Emefa Agawu, Annie Galvin, Jeff Geld, Roge Karma and Kristin Lin. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser. And special thanks to Carole Sabouraud and Kristina Samulewski.
We analyze the worrisome national debt situation in the U.S., UK, and Japan and consider what will determine the likelihood of defaultTopics covered include:How big is the national debt in the U.S., UK, and JapanWhy Japan and UK interest rates have increasedWhen do federal government debts jump the mostWhat two numbers are key to whether a level of national debt is sustainableWhat are five ways indebted countries have reduced the relative size of their debtWhy quantitative easing is not a solution to a national debt crisisFor more information on this episode click here.SponsorsShopify FundriseShow NotesDebt to the Penny—U.S. Treasury Fiscal DataFederal Debt and the Debt Limit in 2022—Congressional Research ServiceCan the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens? by Ricardo Reis—London School of Economics and Political ScienceUK government debt and deficit: June 2022—Office for National StatisticsJapan's Experience with Yield Curve Control by Matthew Higgins and Thomas Klitgaard—Liberty Street EconomicsWhat is the national debt?—U.S. Treasury Fiscal DataMajor Foreign Holder of Treasury Securities—Treasury International Capital System, U.S. TreasuryThe Liquidation of Government Debt by Carmen M. Reinhart and M. Belen Sbrancia—International Monetary FundRelated Episodes295: Federal Reserve Insolvency and Monetizing the National Debt338: The National Debt, Inflation, and the U.S. Dollar—What Could Go Wrong?360: Will the U.S. Default? Debt Ceilings, Government Shutdowns, and the National DebtSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Episode: 157 Paul David Thompson Join your host David Pere and Alex Felice in this episode with guest Paul David Thompson as they do a casual episode about real estate and everything else under the sun regarding how people behave when investing their money today. When the internet was explored, Paul was idle and didn't really participate. But after seeing how entrepreneurs took advantage of market crashes and rises, Paul learned that one must always have the entrepreneurial spirit for every moment. It's a way to become a sophisticated investor who knows how to ride the tides and really win in the long run. In this episode, Paul, David, and Alex go over Warren Buffet's most golden principles when assessing markets, the probable future of cryptocurrency and the blockchain, the genius of Nasim Taleb, the two things that cause the most financial calamities, the power and the problem of the internet, and so much more. About Paul David Thompson: Paul guided numerous beginners through the process of doing their first real estate deal. He works with investors from California to New Zealand. The best part of Paul's life is helping others build extra sources of income so they can lead a life of their design. Paul wants to help people design an investment strategy that fits their needs. He uses multiple approaches when working together with someone so his client can take control of their investments, reduce taxes, accelerate debt paydown, and level up their investing game. Outline of the episode: [03:43] Paul David Thompson – I'm off the hamster wheel [06:00] You make money in the down markets and not at the top of the market [12:05] Spend time on the things you like/love/enjoy doing [17:08] The deployment of blockchain actually has to be centralized [23:45] Always have the entrepreneurial spirit to assess every opportunity [31:05] When you get into more sophisticated deals, you find more sophisticated operators [36:02] Wow! Tiktok is powerful! [43:52] The reason why Taleb's Antifragile is genius [49:41] Debt, inflation, and calamities [55:47] On choosing cryptocurrencies based on values [01:01:46] The internet is experiencing a mass confirmation bias Resources: Website: https://www.pauldavidthompson.com/ This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Book by Carmen M. Reinhart: https://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640 The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark, Book by Carl Sagan: https://www.amazon.com/Demon-Haunted-World-Science-Candle-Dark/dp/0345409469 Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, Book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb: https://www.amazon.com/Antifragile-Things-That-Disorder-Incerto/dp/0812979680 Follow The Military Millionaire Podcast's journey on: Website: https://www.frommilitarytomillionaire.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/Frommilitarytomillionaire/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/1735593999901619/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/frommilitarytomillionaire/ Become A War Room Mastermind Group Member: https://military-millionaire-academy.teachable.com/p/the-war-room Grab your book copy of The No B.S. Guide to Military Life - How to Build Wealth, Get Promoted, and Achieve Greatness, Book by David Pere: https://www.amazon.com/B-S-Guide-Military-Life-greatness/dp/1736753010 Zero to One: Real Estate Investing for Beginners: https://military-millionaire-academy.teachable.com/p/from-zero-to-one-real-estate-investing-101 Grab hold of your 2-Week FREE Trial of Propstream Now: https://trial.propstreampro.com/militarytomillionaire/ Sponsor: - Real Estate Investing Course: https://www.frommilitarytomillionaire.com/teachable-rei Recommended books and tools: https://www.frommilitarytomillionaire.com/kit/ Become an investor: https://www.frommilitarytomillionaire.com/investor/ - SUBSCRIBE: https://bit.ly/2Q3EvfE - Website: https://www.frommilitarytomillionaire.com/start-here/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/frommilitarytomillionaire/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/militarymillionaire/ - My name is David Pere, I am an active duty Marine, and have realized that service members and the working class use the phrase "I don't get paid enough" entirely too often. The reality is that most often our financial situation is self-inflicted. After having success with real estate investing, I started From Military to Millionaire to teach personal finance and real estate investing to service members and the working class. As a result, I have helped many of my readers increase their savings gap, and increase their chances of achieving financial freedom! - Click here to SUBSCRIBE: https://bit.ly/2Q3EvfE to the channel for more awesome videos! THIS SITE IS INDEPENDENTLY OWNED AND OPERATED. ALL OPINIONS EXPRESSED HEREIN ARE MY OWN. THE VIEWS EXPRESSED ON THIS SITE ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHOR OR THE AUTHOR'S INVITED GUEST POSTERS, AND MAY NOT REFLECT THE VIEWS OF THE US GOVERNMENT, THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, OR THE UNITED STATES MARINE CORPS.
Register for the VIRTUAL LIVE Creating Wealth conference on January 28 and 29, 2022. Visit JasonHartman.com today! After 5 years of watching people get bad financial advice, Joe Brown decided to equip people with more control and help them protect and secure their financial future. Join Jason in today's discussion and benefit from Joe's wealth of wisdom! Key Takeaways: 3:42 FED tapering and the repo market 7:46 Quantitative Easing (QE) Infinity 11:28 Catch 22 14:17 Housing shortage, the FED and money printing 18:08 Yield curve control and home mortgages 20:24 Universal Basic Income and the digital dollar 24:20 China is already doing this 26:00 Predictions and hyperinflation 29:00 Real estate will do fairly well 30:55 How much debt can a country take? 32:41 A thought experiment- redirecting purchasing power Mentions: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff YouTube: YouTube.com/c/HeresyFinancial Twitter: @heresyfinancial The WEALTH TRANSFER is happening FAST! Protect your financial future now! Did you know that 25% to 40% of all dollars ever created were dumped into the economy last year??? This will be devastating to some and an opportunity to others, be sure you're on the right side of this massive wealth transfer. Learn from our experiences, maximize your ROI and avoid regrets. Watch, subscribe and comment on Jason's videos on his official YouTube channel: YouTube.com/c/JasonHartmanRealEstate/videos Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: PandemicInvesting.com Jason's TV Clips: Vimeo.com/549444172 CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: JasonHartman.com/Protect What do Jason's clients say?: JasonHartmanTestimonials.com Free Class: Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: JasonHartman.com/Fund Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit JasonHartman.com Free white paper on the Hartman Comparison Index™ Guided Visualization for Investors: JasonHartman.com/visualization Jason's videos in his other sites: JasonHartman.com/Rumble JasonHartman.com/Bitchute JasonHartman.com/Odysee
In this episode I am joined by fellow B|O|S Principal Dave Campbell to tackle four questions about deficits. First, what are deficits? Second, what's B|O|S’ opinion, do deficits even matter? Third, why do deficits matter to investors? Fourth and finally, what are we doing about it at B|O|S?Show Notes:Important Disclosures: bosinvest.com/disclosures.The following links are included in the transcript below and provide context to aspects of the episode’s conversation.“Federal Reserve should embrace more pain for good of the economy”, San Francisco Chronicle Op-Ed, Dave Campbell, Dec. 16, 2017.“Trust”, Dave Campbell, May 22, 2018.“Do Deficits Matter?”, Dave Campbell, November 11, 2019.“The Federal Budget in 2019: An Infographic”, Congressional Budget Office, April 15, 2020.“Federal Debt: A Primer”, Congressional Budget Office, March 12, 2020.“America's Fiscal Future: Federal Debt”, U.S. Government Accountability Office.“The 2020 OASDI Trustees Report”, Social Security Administration, April 22, 2020.“2019 Medicare Trustees Report”, April 22, 2019.“State and Local Government Pension Funding Status, 2002 – 2017”, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, December 20, 2019.Everett Dirksen, “A billion dollars here…”, Forbes.“Historical Debt Outstanding - Annual 2000 – 2019”, Treasury Direct.“Velocity of M2 Money Stock”, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Economic Research.“About the Fed”, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.“United States Fed Funds Rate 1971-2020 Data | 2021-2022 Forecast”, Trading Economics.“Powell Has Become the Fed’s Dr. Feelgood”, James Grant, Wall Street Journal, June 28, 2020.“A Decade of Debt”, Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, National Bureau Of Economic Research, February 2011.“Japan General Government Gross Debt to GDP 1980-2019 Data | 2020-2022 Forecast”, Trading Economics.Tax Cuts and Jobs Act bill summary, U.S Congress.“There Are No Libertarians in an Epidemic”, Peter Nicholas, The Atlantic, March 10, 2020.“Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey”, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Adam Tooze is a professor of history at Columbia University, and is the author of many books, including his popular account of the 2007-2009 crisis, titled Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crisis Changed the World. Adam joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the COVID-19 crisis, the Eurozone, and the future of central banking. Specifically, Adam and David break down recent events and risks in the global financial system, the future of the dollar as reserve currency, and the implications of the recent German-Franco debt deal for the Eurozone. Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings Adam’s Twitter: @adam_tooze Adam’s Columbia profile: https://history.columbia.edu/faculty/adam-tooze/ Adam’s website: https://adamtooze.com/ Related Links: *How Coronavirus Almost Brought Down the Global Financial System* by Adam Tooze https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/14/how-coronavirus-almost-brought-down-the-global-financial-system) *The Death of the Central Bank Myth* by Adam Tooze https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/13/european-central-bank-myth-monetary-policy-german-court-ruling/ *Still the World's Safe Haven?* by Darrell Duffie https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/WP62_Duffie_updated.pdf *Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?* by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff https://www.nber.org/papers/w23134 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth
McAlvany Weekly Commentary About this week’s show: The opaque transfer of wealth using negative interest and regulation Inflation is hidden by making the same priced potato chip bag even smaller Never underestimate the Government’s ability to create a “captive audience” About the guest: Carmen M. Reinhart is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at […] The post Carmen Reinhart Reprise: Can The Bank Pick Your Pocket? appeared first on McAlvany Weekly Commentary.
Sendet uns Audiokommentare per Whatspapp, Telegramm, Signal oder Threema: 0177 899 535 9 Die Kommentare der Hörerinnen und Links zu den Quellen findet ihr auf www.mikrooekonomen.de. Dort auch Shownotes mit Verlinkungen, Bildern und ggf. Videos. Liebe Hörerinnen, Liebe Hörer, die Mikroökonomen sind ein unabhängiger Podcast über Wirtschaft, der, wenn die Zeit vorhanden ist, bemüht ist die Themen auszurecherchieren. Wir wollen keine Werbung machen und dauerhaft ein unabhängiges Informationsangebot aufbauen, dass die Dinge anders macht. Möglich wird dies erst durch Euch. Vielen Dank dafür! Ihr könnt uns direkt unterstützen: Herack, Marco IBAN: DE61 4306 0967 2065 2209 02 BIC: GENODEM1GLS oder... http://mikrooekonomen.de/spenden/ *** Challo *** Nachklapp Generationen-Latenz - Kommentar von Franz - What is the True Rate of Social Mobility? Surnames and Social Mobility in England, 1800-2012 by Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins (PDF) *** Wirtschaftsgeschichte - This Time Is Different - Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff *** Die großen US-Hightechs verdienen prächtig - Handelsblatt: Amazon greift nach dem Börsenthron - Heise: Apple-Zahlen: Doch besser als erwartet - Handelsblatt: Google-Mutter Alphabet steigert Gewinn um 73 Prozent – was dahinter steckt (Google Steuerquote halbiert; von 20 auf 11%) - Macwelt: Apple muss an Irland 13 Mrd. Euro zurückzahlen – Irland stimmt zu *** EU Digitalsteuer gescheitert - Handelsblatt: Krachende Niederlage für Macrons Digitalsteuer - EU Steueroasenliste: Es begann mit 40 Ländern, öffentlich wurde aber eine erste Version mit 17 Ländern von denen am Ende nur 9 übrig blieben *** Nestlé legt Vittel trocken - The Telegraph: French town of Vittel suffering water shortages as Nestle accused of 'overusing' resources *** Westafrikanische Währungsunion *** Hörer-Frage von Julius - Wikipedia: Westafrikanische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion - Die UEMOA und die CFA-Zone: Eine neue Kooperations-Kultur im frankophonen Afrika? - Definition “fester Wechselkurs” im Glossar der deutschen Bundesbank - Für Weiterleser: Wikipedia: Theorie optimaler Währungsräume *** Picks - Hannah pickt einen Podcast: piqd Thema: Wie steht es um die soziale Gerechtigkeit in Deutschland - Ulrich passt. Intro-Music: Title: “Femme Fatale: 30a”; Composer: Jack Waldenmaier; Publisher: Music Bakery Publishing (BMI)
McAlvany Weekly Commentary About this week's show: The opaque transfer of wealth using negative interest and regulation Inflation is hidden by making the same priced potato chip bag even smaller Never underestimate the Government's ability to create a “captive audience” About the guest: Carmen M. Reinhart is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at […] The post Carmen Reinhart: Financial Repression Requires a Captive Audience appeared first on McAlvany Weekly Commentary.
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