Podcasts about Congressional Budget Office

This week the nation woke up to the potential danger of runaway tech — that AI is behaving in ways its creators don't intend and can't control. And that we might be as little as six months to a year away from AI being capable of acting on its own.The midterm election is coming. Prices are high. And a new Congressional Budget Office report out this week says the main reason for relentless inflation is the Iran war.And President Donald Trump has made mail-in-voting a major part of his campaign to sow doubt in the voting process. But on Monday, the Supreme Court blocked his executive order to change how mail-in ballots are sent to voters across the country.And, in global news, this week, Yemeni Houthis militia members seized the Red Sea port of Mokha and several islands inside the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key shipping passage.Reporting from The Washington Post revealed the details of a $2.8 billion arms package the Trump administration will send to Israel. The sale includes 2,000-pound bombs, the largest single sale of the controversial munition in recent years.And next week, is the U.N. General Assembly will stage its annual meeting in New York.Then, Chinese President Xi Jinping heads to Washington for a much-anticipated meeting with President Donald Trump.We cover the most important stories from around the world in the News Roundup.Find more of our programs online. Listen to 1A sponsor-free by signing up for 1A+ at plus.npr.org/the1a.See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

#934: Canadian PM Mark Carney seeks a special relationship with the EU as it shuns the US, according to reports. Despite numerous proposals, Congress can't agree on any substantial AI regulation. The US military confirms they've launched weapons into space. An African billionaire opens up his refinery to the public, which could swell his wealth even more. Finally, the Congressional Budget Office estimates the Iran war has cost $38 billion so far.  Learn more at https://www.hotels.com/morningbrew Lean more at https://quickbooks.intuit.com/team-management/ Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note⁠⁠⁠  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ryan breaks down a Congressional Budget Office report finding that the war in Iran is driving higher inflation for Americans.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

P.M. Edition for Sept. 15. The annual Census report on households' financial well-being showed that median household income notched a new record last year. But as WSJ economics reporter Rachel Wolfe explains, not all Americans are seeing the gains. Plus, a landmark bill that would regulate the crypto industry failed in a procedural vote in the Senate. We hear from reporter Vicky Ge Huang about where the measure goes from here. And the Kennedy Center's board voted to close the venue for renovations, even as President Trump threatened to block them over a naming dispute. Alex Ossola hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week we talk about money policies, yield curves, and government bonds.We also discuss the Fed, the Treasury Department, and a WWII accord between them.Recommended Book: Paved Paradise by Henry GrabarTranscriptIn April of 1942, a few months after the United States entered World War 2, the US Treasury Department asked the Federal Reserve to help it borrow a truly staggering amount of money, and as cheaply as possible. The Fed agreed, committing itself to holding short-term Treasury bill rates at three-eighths of 1%, while also capping the yield on long-term government bonds at 2.5%.This was a type of yield curve control. Rather than allowing the market to decide how much interest the government would pay, the Fed decided that price and promised to enforce it.That helped finance the war, because the Treasury knew its borrowing costs wouldn't spiral out of control at a moment when it needed to spend unprecedented sums on ships, planes, weapons, soldiers, and all the other machinery of an ongoing global conflict.The downside was that the Fed lost control of an important monetary policy lever.Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions, so keeping yields below a certain level meant the Fed had to stand ready to buy bonds whenever their prices dropped. It couldn't decide in advance how many it would buy, or how much money it would create in the process. The market would thus forth decide that, instead.Consequently, the Fed became, in some ways, an extension of the Treasury's debt-management operation, its inflation-related responsibilities made secondary to the government's need for cheap financing.That arrangement persisted after the war ended, despite the return of inflation, and President Harry Truman's administration pushed to maintain it during the Korean War, as well.Fed officials resisted, though, with inflation running at more than 8%, and after a very public, very contentious standoff, on March 4, 1951, the Treasury and the Fed announced that they had reached what became known as the Treasury-Fed Accord.That agreement did not make the Fed independent all at once, but it established the principle underlying the modern relationship between these institutions: the Treasury manages government borrowing, while the Fed sets monetary policy based on inflation and employment, not on how much that policy costs the government.The market, in other words, would once again be allowed to decide the price of long-term US debt.What I'd like to talk about today is what happens when that price goes up, what's pushing long-term US borrowing costs toward levels we haven't seen in decades, and why two people appointed by the same president are pulling in opposite directions on this issue.—The Federal Reserve's primary interest-rate lever is the federal funds rate, which is the overnight rate banks charge each other to borrow money. The Fed currently targets a range of 3.5 to 3.75 percent for that rate, and while it has other tools, this is the number people are usually talking about when they say the Fed raised, cut, or held rates.The Fed does not directly set the yield on 10- or 30-year Treasuries, though.Those securities are sold at auction and then traded in a huge secondary market, and their yields reflect a combination of what investors expect inflation to look like, where they think short-term rates will go over the life of the bond, and what's called the term premium.The term premium is basically extra compensation for uncertainty. If you lock up your money for 30 years instead of rolling over short-term debt, you accept the risk that inflation, growth, government policy, and other variables will change in ways that make your bond less valuable over that thirty year period. The more uncertain the future seems, the more compensation you're likely to demand.And again, when demand for a bond falls, its price falls and its yield rises. When we say yields are rising, that means borrowers have to offer investors, the people and institutions giving them the money they want to borrow, more money, more interest, to convince them to buy those bonds.That doesn't only affect the government. The 10-year Treasury serves as something like a reference rate for the entire economy, influencing mortgages, business loans, and the value of long-lived assets.As of September 3 of 2026, the average US 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.71%, up from 6.5% a year earlier. That increase is the result of yield increases in the bond market.Long-term Treasury yields have been climbing for much of 2026, and that climb accelerated over the summer.The 30-year yield reached about 5.31 percent on August 17, its highest level since 2007. A few days earlier, the Treasury sold 30-year bonds at a yield of 5.216%, the highest borrowing cost at one of those auctions since 2001.The 10-year yield briefly hit about 4.81% this past week, its highest level since early 2025, and ended Friday at about 4.78%. The two-year yield, which tends to track expectations about contemporary Fed policy more closely, ended at about 4.37%.There isn't one clean cut reason for these yield bumps. Instead, there are a bunch of forces pushing in roughly the same direction.The first is government borrowing. The Congressional Budget Office now expects a roughly 2.1 trillion dollar federal deficit this fiscal year, which is 200 billion dollars more than it projected in February. Covering that gap means issuing more debt, and more supply generally means the Treasury has to offer a better return to attract enough buyers.The second is competition from corporations, especially technology companies borrowing to build AI infrastructure and data centers.The Dallas Fed estimates that AI-related investment-grade bond issuance—these companies borrowing money, in the form of bonds, to help build more data centers and other AI-enabling stuff—could total around $300 billion this year, creating long-duration debt equivalent to about an eighth of what the Treasury is expected to issue. Some of the companies selling this debt have extremely strong balance sheets and high credit ratings, so investors who want safe-ish, long-term bonds suddenly have a lot more options, and the US government has to compete with that for a finite pool of investor resources.Third, oil prices have surged following renewed strikes and attacks around the Strait of Hormuz, with US benchmark prices recently climbing above $90 a barrel. More expensive energy can goose inflation across the economy, which makes locking in a fixed return for 10 or 30 years less appealing, because those yields might not keep up with the practical devaluation of the dollar.Fourth, that aforementioned term premium has risen as investors ask to be paid more for uncertainty related to inflation, deficits, geopolitics, and future Treasury issuance.And fifth, the pool of buyers is changing. Foreign investors still own trillions of dollars in Treasuries, but private foreign demand for notes and bonds fell sharply in June, even as corporate bonds attracted more of that finite sum of money.A big shift we seem to be seeing here is that some investors seem to be judging Treasuries less as a bet on the next Fed meeting, and more as a long-term bet on whether the US political system can manage its finances. And that shift is showing up at an awkward moment for the two institutions involved in the 1951 Accord.Kevin Warsh, who became Fed chair in May, used his August 28 speech at Jackson Hole to say that although inflation expectations remain anchored, the Fed still has work to do if underlying inflation is not moving toward its target quickly enough.Markets read that as a warning that a rate hike could be coming, and the unexpectedly strong August jobs report reinforced that interpretation: employers added 162,000 jobs, far more than economists anticipated, while estimates for June and July were revised upward.The Treasury Department, meanwhile, is moving in the opposite direction.On August 19, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the government would at least double the size of its long-term bond buybacks, from a maximum of 2 billion dollars to at least 4 billion dollars per operation, beginning September 9 and continuing through November 4.The stated purpose is to improve liquidity, buying older, less frequently traded 10- to 30-year securities. But buying long-term bonds also reduces the supply available to investors, boosting prices and putting downward pressure on yields, which is why Bessent has referred to the approach as a “Treasury twist.”The scale is small in the context of a $40 trillion national debt, and analysts have described it as more signal than substance. It is nonetheless a striking signal: one Trump appointee is telling markets that higher short-term rates may be necessary to control inflation, while another is using the Treasury's balance sheet to push long-term rates in the other direction.These jobs, which again, were separated in 1951, are working against each other. And this matters, first, because long-term government debt is the foundation upon which a lot of other prices are built.When a 30-year Treasury yields more than 5%, companies refinancing debt have to pay more, commercial real estate becomes harder to finance, mortgages become more expensive, and investors have less reason to pay extremely high prices for stocks based on profits those companies might earn many years from now.It also matters because interest on the federal debt has become one of the government's largest expenses. Gross interest expense reached about $1.17 trillion during the first ten months of fiscal 2026, up about 15% from the same period last year. The somewhat narrower CBO measure of net interest reached $963 billion over that span, roughly level with Medicare spending and greater than defense spending.This creates a potentially self-reinforcing loop: higher yields increase the cost of servicing the debt, higher interest costs expand the deficit, larger deficits require more borrowing, and more borrowing can put further upward pressure on yields.Economists use the term fiscal dominance to describe the point at which government financing needs start to constrain monetary policy, pushing the central bank to keep rates lower than it otherwise would, or to buy government debt, even if doing so undermines its effort to control inflation.The US is not necessarily at that point, but this is exactly the kind of pressure the 1951 Accord was meant to prevent.As with everything government money-related, there's also a global dimension to this shift.For decades, Japanese banks, insurers, pension funds, and other institutions bought foreign bonds in part because yields at home were so low. On September 1, though, Japan's 10-year government bond yield touched 3% for the first time since 1996.Japan's government has more debt relative to the size of its economy than any other wealthy country, and it assumed a 3% long-term rate when calculating debt-service costs for its current budget. Rising above that level would strain its finances, but those higher yields also give Japanese investors more reason to keep their money at home.That doesn't mean Japanese institutions will dump all their Treasuries. Currency-hedging costs and the specific needs of different investors complicate that calculation. But when a major source of relatively steady demand becomes more price-sensitive, the marginal buyer of US debt has to be paid more to invest.Finally, the Treasury market itself has become somewhat more fragile.The amount of debt in circulation has grown far faster than the balance sheets of the dealers that traditionally absorb buying and selling. Hedge funds have filled some of that gap using highly leveraged strategies, including something called the cash-futures basis trade.Fed researchers estimate that these positions reached about $830 billion by September 2025, representing 35% of hedge funds' long Treasury exposure. These trades can provide useful liquidity when markets are calm, but because they rely on enormous amounts of borrowed money to capture tiny price differences, they can also unwind pretty quickly when volatility spikes.That sort of unwind contributed to the Treasury-market seizure in March of 2020, and a different leveraged hedge-fund strategy added to turbulence in April of 2025.The assets treated as the world's safest and most liquid can still become difficult to sell when everyone needs cash at the same time, in other words.The next few weeks should partially clarify what's actually driving this unusual market.The expanded Treasury buybacks begin the day after this episode goes live, September 9. Producer-price inflation data arrives on September 10, consumer-price data on September 11, and the Fed meets on September 15 and 16. The Bank of Japan follows on September 17 and 18, when it may increase its policy rate from 1% to around 1.25%.If the Fed hikes and long-term yields fall, that could indicate investors view the move as credible inflation-fighting: short-term borrowing becomes more expensive, but the term premium shrinks because the distant future seems less inflationary.If the Fed holds after a soft inflation report and short-term yields fall while the 30-year barely moves, that would suggest the long end is being driven by deficits, debt supply, oil prices, corporate competition, and global demand more than Fed policy.And if the buybacks begin but long-term yields continue to climb, that would demonstrate the limits of debt-management policy in a market this large. The Treasury could respond by issuing more short-term and less long-term debt, reducing immediate borrowing costs, though that would also mean refinancing more frequently and taking on the risk that rates remain high.It could also draw down some of the around $950 billion in its account at the Fed to fund larger buybacks, but that cash also serves as a buffer against the debt ceiling, which the government is currently expected to reach sometime in 2027. Spending the buffer now would mean rebuilding it later, and rebuilding it would require issuing even more debt.Back in 1951, the Treasury and the Fed reached an agreement that the central bank should not be required to make government borrowing cheap, and that the price of long-term debt should be allowed to reflect what the market believed that debt was worth.Right now, the market is rendering its verdict, and that verdict is that lending the United States money for 30 years has become substantially more expensive. Now we wait to see what Washington decides to do about it.Show Noteshttps://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/treasury-fed-accordhttps://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-the-treasury-fed-accord-of-1951-and-why-is-it-important/https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/three-factor-nominal-term-structure-model.htmhttps://www.freddiemac.com/pmmshttps://www.cbo.gov/publication/61983https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/interest-expense-on-the-public-debt-outstanding/interest-expense-on-the-public-debt-outstandinghttps://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-pennyhttps://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0210-searls-aifinancinghttps://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0606https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0607https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htmhttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htmhttps://apnews.com/article/1af16359af43eb8abc66445465f633c8https://apnews.com/article/775d7cf741349c7c8e689c0beb57f074https://apnews.com/article/a27a8d3651ff810b25c610d3e1b6259dhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/decomposing-hedge-funds-u-s-treasury-exposures-20260622.htmlhttps://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2026/03/safeguarding-the-treasury-market-jeremy-steinhttps://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/japans-benchmark-bond-yield-rises-to-3-for-first-time-in-30-years-4883532https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htmhttps://bipartisanpolicy.org/article/when-will-we-reach-the-debt-limit-again/https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/quarterly-refunding/most-recent-quarterly-refunding-documents/https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htmhttps://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htmhttps://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-markets-a975877a-ddce-4ea0-a735-4b460d37af90.htmlhttps://www.ft.com/content/c96c25c1-b27c-4c08-a2ba-21821b39dd78https://www.axios.com/2026/08/19/rates-treasury-borrowing-bessent This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe

A recent Congressional Budget Office report estimates that it could cost over $7 billion to protect military installations from unmanned aircraft. But the report also highlights a threat that is evolving faster than traditional acquisition cycles. For a closer look, I'm joined by Bill Ostrowski, CEO of MyDefence North America.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Untangling America's Socialist Fever and Fear   Host Curtis Chang and Good Faith "founding friend" David French ask whether democratic socialism is your grandparents' socialism, the left's answer to MAGA, or something more sinister. They unpack what Christians should make of its growing influence by exploring the DSA, economic inequality, America's national debt, the influence of Big Tech, and why Christians who feel politically homeless still have an obligation to stay engaged.   00:44 - Introduction to Democratic Socialism 02:19 - Can We Define a Democratic Socialist? 04:04 - Should Socialism Scare Us? 08:39 - Is the DSA the Left's MAGA? 17:38 - The Electoral Risk of Extremism 21:21 - Is There a Theological Take on Socialism? 25:19 - Has Debt Seized the Means of Production? 28:45 - Policy Must Be Effective, Not Just Well-Intentioned 33:13 - The Role of Economics in Moral Reasoning 34:19 - The Homeless Political Middle 36:43 - The Legitimate Grievances Fueling Extremism  42:08 - Socialism and the Threat of Big Tech 43:52 - The Presumption of Socialism and Economic Freedom 47:13 - Encouragement for the Politically Homeless   To give to Good Faith: https://goodfaith.org/donate   Mentioned in This Episode: Ten Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) Arguments for Socialism and Why They're Wrong (CATO Institute) Hasan Piker: What You Need to Know (Anti-Defamation League) Pope Leo XIII's Rerum Novarum (the basis for solidarity and subsidiarity) Congressional Budget Office: the federal debt / long-term budget outlook What is the Federal Debt right now? (Peter G. Peterson Foundation) Noah Smith: No one knows how much the government can borrow David French's How Can America Be So Miserable When It's So Rich? Starlink in the Russian-Ukrainian war More about labor leader Eugene Debs More about 20th Century economist Friedrich August Hayek   Scriptures: Proverbs 22:7 (ESV) 1 Kings 19:18 (ESV) Romans 11:4 (ESV)   More From David French: David French's New York Times pieces HERE Follow David French on Threads   Follow Us: Good Faith on Instagram Good Faith on X (formerly Twitter) Good Faith on Facebook   The Good Faith Podcast is a production of a 501(c)(3) nonpartisan organization that does not engage in any political campaign activity to support or oppose any candidate for public office. Any views and opinions expressed by any guests on this program are solely those of the individuals and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of Good Faith.  

Cori Uccello, FSA, MAAA, FCA, MPP joins host Ankit Nanda, FSA, MAAA, FCA for a tour of the U.S. health insurance coverage landscape, including Medicare, Medicaid, and the ACA marketplaces. Drawing on a career as the senior health fellow at the American Academy of Actuaries, MedPAC commissioner, and Congressional Budget Office panel of health advisers member, she discusses how actuarial analysis enters policy debates, where it carries weight, and what actuaries should understand about the programs shaping the market they price in.

The price tag for the Pentagon's ambitious Golden Dome missile defense system has become a point of contention between the Defense Department and the Congressional Budget Office. CBO says the vision laid out by President Trump last year could cost taxpayers at least $1.2 trillion over two decades, but Pentagon officials have pushed back on that estimate and questioned some of the assumptions behind it. Federal News Network's Rachel Cohen joins me with more.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

There is an iron law of building complicated things, and it applies to your kitchen renovation exactly the same way it applies to a nuclear-powered warship: the most expensive moment in any project is the moment somebody changes their mind after the work has started.A new presidential memorandum directs the Navy to plan for ripping electromagnetic catapults out of carriers already under construction and putting steam-powered ones back in. The Washington Post reports the Navy is also quietly studying whether to move the island — the multi-story command tower — from the stern toward the middle of the ship, because that's how World War II carriers looked. Ford-class carriers are projected at $22 billion apiece, and the Navy plans to build up to 10.Host Steve Ellis is joined by TCS policy analyst Gabe Murphy to read the fine print. They dig into why the island sits where it sits (stability, safer landings, more sorties), what a steam conversion would actually require — including convincing a manufacturer to restart a production line idle for nearly three decades — and why the USS Doris Miller, already two years behind schedule, could slip into the late 2030s. They also look at the Congressional Budget Office's new score for the Trump-class battleship: $275 billion over 30 years, with the lead ship at $23 billion — more than 31% above the Navy's own estimate from earlier this year. And they ask whether Newport News, the only yard in the country certified to build these ships, can absorb any of it without delaying the Columbia-class subs that carry the sea-based leg of the nuclear triad.It's not all criticism. Gabe flags the parts of the memorandum a budget watchdog should actually like, including allied shipyard partnerships modeled on the Coast Guard's icebreaker deal with Finland.America's shipbuilding problem is real. You don't fix a schedule problem by redrawing the blueprints on ships already on the way — and you don't fix a cost problem by ordering a new class of battleships the Navy doesn't want. Proven, reliable, affordable: we'd just like to see the receipts, especially in the week federal debt topped $40 trillion.

In this episode of 47 Morning Update w Ben Ferguson, Ben examines America’s $40 trillion debt milestone, the Congressional Budget Office’s projections for future borrowing, and the rising cost of servicing the national debt. They discuss debt-to-GDP ratios, annual federal deficits, interest payments approaching $1 trillion per year, and the broader debate over whether Washington’s spending habits are creating risks for future generations. The United States has officially crossed a historic threshold: $40 trillion in gross federal debt. According to figures discussed in this episode, the debt burden is now roughly comparable to the size of the entire U.S. economy, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability and the growing cost of interest payments.The discussion focuses on how federal spending continues to outpace revenue, the rapid growth of annual deficits, and projections that debt held by the public could exceed previous post-World War II records in the years ahead. Topics Covered: America surpasses $40 trillion in gross federal debt Federal spending exceeds revenue by nearly $2 trillion annually Congressional Budget Office projections for debt-to-GDP growth Rising federal interest costs and their budget impact Historical comparisons to post-World War II debt levels The political debate over government spending and fiscal responsibility Please Hit Subscribe to this podcast Right Now. Also Please Subscribe to the The Ben Ferguson Show Podcast and Verdict with Ted Cruz Wherever You get You're Podcasts. And don't forget to follow the show on Social Media so you never miss a moment! Thanks for Listening X: https://x.com/benfergusonshowYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@VerdictwithTedCruzSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Protect Our Care estimates that 8 million Americans have lost Medicaid, CHIP or Affordable Care Act coverage, while more than 1,100 health care providers have closed, cut services or are considered at risk. The Congressional Budget Office projects the number of uninsured Americans will rise from 30 million this year to 37 million by 2036. Subscribe to our newsletter to stay informed with the latest news from a leading Black-owned & controlled media company: https://aurn.com/newsletter Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Most leaders try to manage a crisis with logic; it rarely works. In this episode of Leading Through Crisis, host Céline Williams sits down with Doug Noll — a former trial lawyer, peacemaker, and author of De-Escalate — who spent over a decade teaching maximum-security inmates how to stop fights before they start. Doug breaks down the neuroscience of conflict: why 95% of the brain is emotional (not rational), why the prefrontal cortex shuts down under threat, and why leading through logic during a crisis is fighting biology itself.  He introduces a simple, research-backed technique called affect labeling (saying "you feel" and naming someone's emotion) that can calm a nervous system in under two minutes, whether you're in a boardroom, a family crisis, or a prison yard. Along the way, Doug shares one of the most powerful stories from his 10 years working in California and Connecticut prisons: a woman serving a 25-to-life sentence who used this exact skill to reconnect with the son she had relinquished 18 years earlier. If you're a business owner, executive, or leader who wants practical tools for leading through change, conflict, and crisis — not just theory — this conversation will change how you show up in every hard conversation you have next. — Douglas E. Noll, JD, MA, is a lawyer-turned-peacemaker. He is an award-winning author, teacher, trainer, and highly experienced mediator. Doug's work carries him from international work to helping people resolve deep interpersonal and ideological conflicts. His training has included everything from teaching life inmates to be peacemakers and mediators in maximum-security prisons to training analysts at the Congressional Budget Office how to de-escalate members of Congress and staff. You can learn more at https://dougnoll.com. The special site with resources for our listeners, https://dougnoll.co/crisis, goes live August 17th. You can also connect with Doug on... LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/dougnoll/ Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/DouglasNoll Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/douglasenoll/ Or subscribe to his YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCtAHXdBT1Y0Pl7SGrM_HcFw Doug's new book, Empathy Leadership, comes out at the beginning of September. Pre-order here: https://dougnoll.com/books/empathy-leadership

A new Congressional Budget Office report says the federal government will subsidize health insurance in the U.S. by more than $33 trillion over the next 10 years. David W. Johnson and Julie Murchinson unpacked what we should expect in return on, “Government Health Insurance Subsidies: Too Much, Too Little or Just Right?” the new episode of the 4sight Health Roundup podcast, moderated by David Burda.

P.M. Edition for Aug. 4. Millions of Americans are going without health insurance after the end of federal subsidies that kept their Affordable Care Act premiums down. WSJ reporter Anna Wilde Mathews discusses how that's weighing on hospital profits. Plus, strong earnings and hopes for an Iran deal send markets soaring. McDonald's aims to shake up its U.S. operations with a new boss after the U.S. division fell short in its most recent quarter. And SpaceX's revenue rose 92% in the first quarter since its IPO, while it reported a net loss of $541 million. Alex Ossola hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Join us for the newest installment of People First, in which host Former Congressman John Faso sits down with Dr. Caprice Knapp, Principal Deputy of the Center for Medicaid and CHIP Services (CMCS), to break down the new community engagement requirements in Medicaid and what states must do to implement them by 2027. Dr. Knapp is a health economist with more than 20 years of experience working on Medicaid and CHIP across the private sector, state government, and academia, and previously served as North Dakota Medicaid Director from 2019 to 2022. A former member of the Congressional Budget Office's Panel of Health Advisers, she has authored more than 80 peer-reviewed publications and two books.

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured  Chris breaks down the latest Congressional Budget Office budget data, warning that soaring Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest costs are outpacing revenue growth. He argues that without bipartisan entitlement reform, rising deficits and debt will continue to threaten the nation's long-term fiscal health.

More than 4 million Americans have lost SNAP food assistance since the Republican tax-and-spending law took effect, according to new data from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Researchers say expanded work requirements — not reduced need — are driving the sharp decline, with children making up nearly half of those losing benefits in states with available data. Subscribe to our newsletter to stay informed with the latest news from a leading Black-owned & controlled media company: https://aurn.com/newsletter Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Household wealth in the United States rose from about 270% of GDP in 1997 to roughly 465% by 2021. Some 96% of that increase accrued to households where the respondents were 55 or older. And within that group, nearly three quarters of the wealth increase went to the wealthiest 10% of households. As this wealth passes to heirs, much of it will likely never be taxed. John Sabelhaus joins EconoFact Chats to discuss how the erosion of the estate tax and provisions like the "step-up in basis" have created what he and co-author Bill Gale call "never-taxed income," and how reforming the taxation of wealth transfers could address both widening inequality and rising government debt. John is a Senior Fellow in the Economic Studies program at the Brookings Institution. He previously served at the Federal Reserve Board and the Congressional Budget Office.

When does a fiscal challenge become a fiscal problem? And at what point can that problem turn into a full blown crisis? As the federal debt held by the public reaches 100% of GDP, a level the US has seen only once before, at the end of World War II, these questions take on greater importance. Drawing on a new EconoFact Explainer (https://econofact.org/explainer/federal-debt-and-the-risk-of-a-fiscal-crisis), Doug Elmendorf, former Director of the Congressional Budget Office, joins EconoFact Chats to discuss how U.S. government finances became a problem, what this means for the broader economy, and what prospects there are for reducing government debt. Doug is a Distinguished Service Professor at the Harvard Kennedy School.

What if the most powerful leadership skill in the world could be taught in a maximum security prison? In this episode, Doug Noll, lawyer turned peacemaker, mediator, and author of the upcoming Empathy Leadership, shares how walking away from a $10 million law career led him to one of the most profound discoveries in human communication. For 10 years he trained over 3,000 incarcerated men and women in maximum security prisons to prevent gang riots using a skill that can be learned in minutes and practiced in seconds. That skill is two words: You feel. The story that changed everything wasn't in a boardroom. It was a woman on a hospital bed in the world's largest women's prison, writing letters to a son who hadn't spoken to her in 18 years. What happened next is something Doug will never forget.   [00:05:00] What He Does and Who He Serves Lawyer turned peacemaker with a master's degree in conflict studies Left the practice of law in 2000 after 22 years as a trial lawyer Teaches nervous system leadership to executives, founders, and C-level leaders [00:06:00] The Three Questions Every Brain Asks Every brain in every meeting asks three questions every microsecond Am I safe? Can I trust you? Do I matter to you? If leaders don't get solid yeses, they've already lost the room A leader's first job is to regulate their own nervous system [00:07:30] How a Lawyer Became a Peacemaker Took up martial arts in his mid-30s and earned a second-degree black belt His teacher sent him to learn Tai Chi; it taught him soft is strong and vulnerable is powerful In a courtroom in the late 90s the thought hit him: what am I doing in here? [00:09:00] The River Trip That Changed Everything Spent 10 days alone on a raft on the Salmon River in Idaho thinking Could only count five people in 22 years of law who came out better than they went in Heard a radio announcement for a peacemaking master's degree and enrolled at 48 Gave one week's notice, left $10 million on the table, and walked away [00:11:00] What Inspires Him Wants to teach as many people as possible to stop fights before they spiral The skill: say "you feel" and name what the other person is experiencing When you name someone's emotions, their amygdala calms and they can think again [00:13:30] Client Impact Trained senior analysts at the Congressional Budget Office to de-escalate members of Congress Mediated a three-day dispute at a billion-dollar company where stakeholders could barely be in the same room Hardened business people regularly break into tears from the release of tension they've been carrying [00:15:00] The Relationship That Changed Everything: Laurel Klaffer and Sarah In 2009 a woman serving life without parole wrote letters from a hospital bed One letter landed with Doug's colleague Laurel Klaffer; she called Doug and read it to him Eight months later they were standing in front of 15 women in California's largest women's prison [00:16:30] Sarah's Letter: The Moment That Defined the Mission Sarah had been in prison 18 years for a fatal DUI that killed a family of four She gave up her three-year-old son when she entered prison; he never visited or wrote back Using what she learned, she wrote naming how he must feel For the first time in 18 years he wrote back: Mom, I love you; I'm bringing my girlfriend to visit [00:18:00] Prison of Peace: A Program That Went Global Sarah's story confirmed the work was about restoring humanity, not just peacemaking The program expanded to Corcoran State Prison, one of California's two supermaxes Prison of Peace is now operating in prisons across the world [00:22:00] Mike's Story: A Father Reconnected from Behind Bars Mike, a gang member at Corcoran, had a daughter who ran from him during visits He started naming her emotions on their weekly calls; within weeks she was a changed girl She began requesting her own weekly call just to be listened to On the next visit she ran and jumped into his arms; the guards looked the other way [00:27:30] Final Word: Two Words That Change Everything Conflict is inevitable; the painful emotions around it are not Every fight is a cry: please listen to me Say "you feel" and the argument dissolves; the problem can finally be solved   KEY QUOTES "Every fight, every argument is nothing more than a cry: please listen to me." - Doug Noll "When you name what someone feels, you choose humanity over ideology. You choose connection over being right." - Doug Noll "If the most violent men I've ever worked with could learn how to listen people into existence, imagine what it could do for everybody listening to this show." - Doug Noll CONNECT WITH DOUG NOLL Website: https://www.dougnoll.com Substack: https://www.dougnoll.substack.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dougnoll   Thanks for tuning in! If you liked my show, please LEAVE A 5-STAR REVIEW, like, and subscribe! Find me on: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | iHeart Radio | Stitcher  

Facts & Context: The Quiet Ways People Are Trying To Survive Right NowA lot is going wrong right now. But people are not waiting around. Here are five impactful ways communities are surviving and fighting back.1. Food SNAP participation has dropped by 3.5 million people since last July and the Congressional Budget Office projects 2.4 million people will lose benefits every month over the next decade. In response people are building community refrigerators, mutual aid networks, community gardens, and buy nothing groups. Find your local mutual aid network or buy nothing group this week. If one does not exist start one.2. Energy Energy prices are rising at double the rate of inflation. Balcony solar — also called plug-in solar — is a practical response. Systems start at $200, plug into a standard outlet, require no major installation, and can save households hundreds annually. More than 30 states have passed or introduced legislation to expand access. Search balcony solar and your state to see where things stand.Sources:● World Resources Institute● Canary Media● State Affairs3. Mental Health 49,000 Americans died by suicide in 2024. Therapy costs $100 to $200 per session without insurance. People are turning to peer support networks, online communities, and faith spaces to bridge the gap. Check out Open Path Collective for affordable therapy options starting at $30.4. Voting Rights A federal court just blocked Alabama's discriminatory congressional map. That is a win. People are organizing at the local level — school boards, city councils, county commissions. Local elections have direct impact on your daily life. Find out when your next local election is and show up.5. Community Community is not a buzzword. It is a survival strategy. Mutual aid, peer support, showing up for strangers — this is how people have always survived the unsurvivable. Do one thing this week for someone outside your immediate circle.Everything begins with a conversation. What are you doing to survive this moment?I write about faith, justice and moral clarity, giving language to the things you feel but struggle to say. Become a paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit malyndahale.substack.com/subscribe

In this Healthy Widow Healthy Woman podcast episode with Carolyn Moor, we sit down with economist and former Social Security Administration researcher David Weaver Ph.D to break down everything widows need to know.We'll cover:The different types of widow benefitsThe new SWIFT Act introduced to Congress by NY Senator Gillibrand, How you can support it and what it could mean for your monthly checkA recent Social Security's Inspector General report that found serious problems in how the SSA is handling widow claimsDavid Weaver also shares:What the Social Security Advisory Board is recommending to better serve widows and their childrenWhat the latest research tells us about how widows are faring financiallyThe red flags every widow should watch for when dealing with the Social Security Administration.Whether you're newly widowed or planning ahead, this episode is essential to Healthy Widow Healthy Womanlistening for widow advocates everywhere.HWHW Guest Bio: David A. Weaver currently teaches statistics at the University of South Carolina. Prior to teaching, David served as a researcher and executive in the federal government for several years at the Social Security Administration and the Congressional Budget Office. He has published several articles on federal programs, income, and poverty.David is a native of Atlanta, Georgia and received a bachelor's degree in economics from Furman University in Greenville, South Carolina. He also holds a Ph.D. in economics from Duke University.*Follow David Weaver on Linkedin. * Follow Carolyn Moor on Linkedin Learn more about Host Modern Widows Club® The Movement for Widow Care (MWC)

A group of 32 congressional Democrats is calling for the Federal Aviation Administration to help hold Immigration and Customs Enforcement accountable following reports that the Department of Homeland Security unit is withholding aviation data. While deportation flights significantly increased last year, data about the air operations is difficult to find, according to the House members' letter to FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford. The representatives are asking for a detailed report about ICE's use of the Limiting Aircraft Data Displayed (LADD) program and whether the FAA is aware of additional data-suppression methods contributing to the decreased transparency. The program “was established to enable private aircraft owners and operators of non-commercial flights to filter their flight data from public display websites,” the coalition said in the letter sent Monday. “ICE's use of this program to obscure routine government operations and suppress information about deportation flights is out of the scope of this program, and therefore inappropriate and dangerous.” The price tag for the Golden Dome for America could reach $1.2 trillion to develop, deploy and operate over 20 years, according to a new report published Tuesday by the Congressional Budget Office. The updated cost estimate is based on a “notional” missile defense architecture that broadly includes capabilities outlined in President Donald Trump's 2025 executive order calling for Golden Dome's development. CBO's projections are significantly larger than the $185 billion already budgeted for the project — with space-based interceptors (SBIs) accounting for over half of the office's estimate. “Of the $1.2 trillion amount, acquisition costs for the notional [national missile defense] system would total just over $1 trillion,” the report stated. “The most expensive component is the space-based interceptor layer, which accounts for about 70 percent of acquisition costs and 60 percent of total costs.” The Daily Scoop Podcast is available every Monday-Friday afternoon. If you want to hear more of the latest from Washington, subscribe to The Daily Scoop Podcast  on Apple Podcasts, Soundcloud, Spotify and YouTube.

if you have any feedback, please send us a text! Thank you!When Congress celebrated July 4 by enacting House Resolution 1 (known as H.R. 1 or the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”), experts warned of massive impacts on Medicaid programs nationwide and the more than 70 million people who rely on them.H.R. 1 cut nearly $1 trillion from Medicaid, the largest funding reduction in the program's 60-year history. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that by 2034, as many as 10 million individuals nationwide will become uninsured as numerous new eligibility rules are imposed in Medicaid and ACA programs.The Medicaid program, known as Medi-Cal in California, covers more than half of the state's children, 2.2 million seniors and people with disabilities, 1 in 5 working Californians, and millions of other people with low incomes. H.R. 1 is expected to cut $30 billion a year in federal funding from Medi-Cal, reducing overall access to care and possibly pushing some safety net providers into dire straits, according to the California Budget and Policy Center. Up to 3.4 million state residents could lose coverage, the center said. As the uninsured population rises, more medical bills will go unpaid, cutting revenue for California's health care safety net.Join my guests today who will explain the impact this will have on rural healthcare in California and the effect on anesthesiology services. Charley Yan is a fourth-year medical student at UC Davis with a background in Medicaid policy. Before medical school, he helped drive California's Medicaid expansion efforts and has since analyzed coverage and safety-net policies across multiple states.Mary Morales is an anesthesiologist at Stanford. She is the current vice chair of the CSA Justice, Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion committee (JEDI). Naileshni Singh (pronounced Na-Lesh-Knee Sing) is a pain interventionalist with a background in Anesthesiology from the University of California, Davis.  She is the current chair of the California Society of Anesthesiologist's Justice, Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion committee (JEDI).   Resources:https://csahq.org/2025/09/02/federal-funding-cuts-threaten-rural-californias-health-anesthesia-care/https://www.chcf.org/resource/how-massive-federal-cuts-will-create-unprecedented-challenges-medi-cal-patients-providers/ 

Send us Fan MailWe sit down with former Congressman and psychologist Tim Murphy to show how mental health laws really get made and why “good ideas” often get changed or stripped before they ever help families. We dig into Medicaid rules, treatment access, psychosis risks, and the hard truth that silence is how broken systems stay in place. • the real path of a bill from idea to compromise to final vote • why mental health policy creates intense conflict between groups • assisted outpatient treatment as an alternative to repeated hospitalization • how “gravely disabled” standards shape who can get care • Medicaid payment rules that discourage psychiatric beds and longer stays • why Congressional Budget Office scoring can derail reforms • what happens when severe mental illness is handled in jails • solitary confinement as a driver of worsening symptoms and suicide risk • high potency marijuana and the rising risk of psychosis • the estimated $340B to $380B annual cost of schizophrenia • families left holding the system together without guidance • HIPAA and confidentiality blocking parents from sharing critical history • why large organizations lose focus and stall action • how autism and schizophrenia advocacy can find common ground • practical steps to educate legislators through emails letters and visits If you know someone who has a story to you, tell them to contact us at why notme.world. One last time, spread the word about why not me. INTRO/OUTRO Music: T. WildMantor Music BMIhttps://tonymantor.comhttps://Facebook.com/tonymantorhttps://instagram.com/tonymantorhttps://twitter.com/tonymantorhttps://youtube.com/tonymantormusicintro/outro music bed written by T. WildWhy Not Me the World music published by Mantor Music (BMI)

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured  Did Americans really get a tax cut — or just a hidden tax hike through tariffs? This breakdown explains how Trump's tariff policies may have wiped out the savings from his “Big Beautiful Bill,” according to data from the Congressional Budget Office, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the Joint Committee on Taxation. From consumer prices to corporate costs, Chris dives into the math behind tariffs, taxes, and why history shows voters rarely reward tariff-heavy economic policies.

A familiar refrain has returned to international debate: China is "causing" global economic imbalances. It is an easy argument, but not a convincing one. Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund released a dedicated policy paper titled Understanding Global Imbalances, and held focused discussions on the widening of global imbalances and the underlying causes.国际舆论场上又响起了那个熟悉的论调：中国正在"导致"全球经济失衡。这种说法信手拈来，却经不起推敲。本月早些时候，国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布了题为《理解全球失衡》的专题政策报告，围绕全球失衡加剧及其深层成因展开了重点讨论。That timing matters. The IMF analysis shows that the world economy has become more imbalanced, and that the reason cannot be attributed to one country exporting too much. Recent data released by China's General Administration of Customs reinforce this point.这个时间节点值得关注。IMF的分析表明，世界经济确实更趋失衡，但其根源并不能简单归咎于某个国家的过度出口。中国海关总署近日发布的最新数据也印证了这一点。China's imports grew 19.6 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026 while exports were up 11.9 percent. That imports grew faster than exports is an important detail.2026年第一季度，中国进口同比增长19.6%，而出口增速为11.9%。进口增速跑赢出口增速，这个细节不容忽视。It indicates that while global imbalances are widening, it's doubtful that China is "causing" the problem.它表明，尽管全球失衡正在加剧，但将矛头指向中国是站不住脚的。The basic flaw in the "blame China" argument is that it takes a conceptual shortcut. Global imbalances cannot be reduced to a simple arithmetic of excess exports from one economy. They are rooted in the relationship between saving and investment, fiscal policy choices, financial structures and the broader organization of the international monetary system."责怪中国"论调的根本缺陷在于思维上的偷懒。全球失衡不能简化为一国贸易顺差过大的算术题。其根源深植于储蓄与投资的关系、财政政策选择、金融结构以及更广泛的国际货币体系安排之中。The IMF's latest analysis makes precisely this point, stressing that domestic macroeconomic trajectories are the main drivers of external balances, while tariffs and trade restrictions generally have a marginal impact on current-account adjustment. That is why reducing the issue to "Chinese overcapacity" may be politically convenient, but it is economically insufficient.IMF的最新分析恰恰指出了这一点，强调国内宏观经济走势才是外部平衡的主要驱动因素，而关税和贸易限制对经常账户调整的影响通常微乎其微。正因如此，将问题归结为"中国产能过剩"或许在政治上很方便，但在经济学上却缺乏说服力。Consider the oft-repeated claim that trade with China is the main reason for the industrial decline in advanced economies. Historical data do not support such a simple conclusion.再来看看那个被反复提及的说法——对华贸易是发达经济体工业衰退的主因。历史数据并不支持如此简单的结论。In the United States, manufacturing employment has been falling for decades. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, manufacturing employment peaked at 19.6 million in June 1979 and had fallen to 12.8 million by June 2019, a decline of about 6.7 million.以美国为例，制造业就业人数已持续数十年下滑。根据美国劳工统计局数据，制造业就业人数在1979年6月达到1960万的峰值，到2019年6月已降至1280万，减少了约670万。This long-term trend reflects several structural shifts, including productivity gains, automation, evolving consumption and the steady growth of the service sector.这一长期趋势折射出多重结构性转变，包括生产率提升、自动化普及、消费结构演变以及服务业的稳步增长。Trade shocks did affect some industries and regions, especially during the 2000s, but that did not create the problem. To say that deindustrialization was caused by imports is to mistake one contributing factor as the only reason for the decline.贸易冲击确实在21世纪初对某些行业和地区造成了影响，但它并非问题的始作俑者。若将去工业化完全归咎于进口，无异于把众多成因之一当成了唯一原因。That distinction matters because an incorrect diagnosis leads to bad policy. When domestic structural weaknesses are recast as purely external pressure, the real sources of fragility are left unaddressed. One of those weaknesses is inequality. Federal Reserve distributional data show that in the third quarter of 2025, the richest 1 percent of the US population owned 31.7 percent of the country's total net worth. The next 9 percent owned another 36.4 percent, while the bottom half of the population owned just 2.5 percent.区分这一点至关重要，因为错误的诊断会催生糟糕的政策。当国内的结构性弱点被重塑为纯粹的外部压力时，真正的脆弱源头便无人问津了。不平等便是其中一个弱点。美联储的财富分配数据显示，2025年第三季度，美国最富有的1%人口拥有全国31.7%的净资产，紧随其后的9%人口拥有36.4%，而底层50%的人口仅拥有2.5%。OECD adult-skills data point in the same direction: in the 2023 Survey of Adult Skills, 28 percent of US adults scored at Level 1 or below in literacy. In a society with highly concentrated wealth and weak foundations, economic anxiety is bound to intensify. But this anxiety should not be mistaken for proof that China is causing the domestic imbalance.经合组织的成人技能调查数据也指向了同一方向：在2023年的调查中，28%的美国成年人在读写能力方面处于一级或以下水平。在一个财富高度集中、基础技能薄弱的社会里，经济焦虑感必然加剧。但这种焦虑不应被误读为中国导致其国内失衡的证据。Another problem in the current debate is the structure of the international system itself.当前讨论中存在的另一个问题是国际体系本身的结构。The world monetary order remains centered on the US dollar and is marked by deep asymmetries. The extraordinary depth of the US financial markets and the safe-asset status of US treasuries allow the country to sustain large external deficits for longer than most economies could.世界货币秩序仍以美元为中心，且具有深刻的不对称性。美国金融市场深度非凡，美债享有安全资产地位，这使得该国能比大多数经济体更长久地维持巨额外部赤字。This means that today's imbalances are shaped not only by surplus countries, but also by a system that gives the principal deficit country exceptional capacity to absorb global savings and postpone adjustment. It is therefore misleading to frame global imbalances as a problem caused by China alone.这意味着，当今的失衡不仅由顺差国塑造，也源于一个赋予主要逆差国特殊能力——吸收全球储蓄、推迟调整——的体系。因此，将全球失衡描述为仅由中国造成的问题是有误导性的。A third problem is the policy volatility in major deficit economies, especially in the US. The IMF's 2026 Article IV consultation notes that the US fiscal deficit fell marginally to 5.9 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2025, while the current account deficit remained large at 3.7 percent of GDP. The Congressional Budget Office put the nominal federal deficit at $1.8 trillion in 2025.第三个问题是主要逆差经济体（尤其是美国）的政策波动性。IMF 2026年的第四条款磋商报告指出，美国2025财年财政赤字占GDP比重微降至5.9%，但经常账户赤字仍高达GDP的3.7%。美国国会预算办公室数据显示，2025年名义联邦赤字为1.8万亿美元。Large fiscal and external deficits in the issuer of the world's reserve currency, especially when combined with tariff shocks and policy unpredictability, are themselves a source of global instability.作为世界储备货币的发行国，其庞大的财政与外部赤字，再叠加关税冲击和政策不可预测性，本身就是全球不稳定的根源。Any discussion of global imbalances that overlooks this dimension is analytically incomplete from the outset.任何关于全球失衡的讨论，若忽略这一维度，从一开始就是分析上的不完整。A wider context is essential when assessing global imbalances. A more serious debate should begin with the premise that rebalancing is a shared task, but not a symmetrical one. China continues to strengthen domestic demand and deepen reform.评估全球失衡时，更广阔的语境不可或缺。更严肃的讨论应基于一个前提：再平衡是一项共同任务，但责任并非完全对等。中国正持续强化内需、深化改革。At the same time, major deficit economies, especially the US, need to confront the consequences of their fiscal decisions, financial incentives and policy volatility.与此同时，主要逆差经济体，尤其是美国，需要正视自身财政决策、金融激励及政策波动所带来的后果。Until that happens, the world is likely to remain trapped in a cycle of growing imbalances, rising political blame and shrinking policy effectiveness.若非如此，世界恐怕仍将深陷于一个循环：失衡加剧、政治指责升温、政策效力递减。refrain /rɪˈfreɪn/老调；经常重复的话 arithmetic /əˈrɪθmətɪk/算术；计算 international monetary system /ˌɪntərˈnæʃənəl ˈmɑːnɪteri ˈsɪstəm/国际货币体系 macroeconomic trajectories /ˌmækroʊˌiːkəˈnɑːmɪk trəˈdʒektəriz/宏观经济轨迹；宏观经济走势 asymmetry /eɪˈsɪmətri/不对称性 deficit /ˈdefɪsɪt/赤字；逆差 reserve currency /rɪˈzɜːrv ˈkɜːrənsi/储备货币

Income inequality in the U.S. is surging, reminiscent of the Gilded Age, according to Inequality.org, a project of the Institute for Policy Studies. According to the Congressional Budget Office, between 1979 and 2021 the average income of the top 0.1 percent of households grew almost 27 times as fast as that of the bottom 20 percent. Which brings us to a question being asked across the country today: Should the very rich be subject to a special tax? USA TODAY Personal Finance Reporter Daniel de Visé joins The Excerpt to discuss the possibility of a wealth tax.Let us know what you think of this episode by sending an email to podcasts@usatoday.com. Episode transcript available here. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Today's episode of the Power of Zero Show sees David McKnight address one of the most important decisions you'll ever make in retirement: where you should withdraw money from first. It's important to note that the sequence in which you draw down your retirement dollars can dramatically affect how long your money lasts and how much of it you get to keep. Since the Trump tax cuts were permanently extended on July 4th, 2025, retirees have been presented with one of the most significant tax planning windows they may ever see. The national debt continues to grow – with Social Security and Medicare obligations expanding every year, and interest on the national debt taking up a larger and larger share of the federal budget. Analysts at the Congressional Budget Office and several independent economists agree that, although the 2025 extension has delayed the inevitable, it has not solved the underlying math… In or around 2035, the Government will have to raise revenue to keep pace with rising expenditures. Every dollar you withdraw from tax-deferred accounts – like IRAs, 401(k)s, 403bs, 457s – is a dollar tax rate that may be the lowest you're likely to see in your lifetime. "The goal isn't to eliminate RMDs entirely but to shrink your tax-deferred bucket to the point where these distributions are completely absorbed by your standard deduction", says David. "That means tax-free distributions from IRAs and 401(k)s. Many experts have warned people: if the U.S. doesn't right its fiscal ship of state by 2043, no combination of raising taxes or reducing spending will arrest the financial collapse of the country. You're living in a decade where taxes are as low as you've seen in your lifetime… …and even though the tax cuts were extended indefinitely, the long-term fiscal math still points in one clear direction.     Mentioned in this episode: David's new book, available now for pre-order: The Secret Order of Millionaires David's national bestselling book: The Guru Gap: How America's Financial Gurus Are Leading You Astray, and How to Get Back on Track Tax-Free Income for Life: A Step-by-Step Plan for a Secure Retirement by David McKnight DavidMcKnight.com DavidMcKnightBooks.com PowerOfZero.com (free video series) @mcknightandco on Twitter  @davidcmcknight on Instagram David McKnight on YouTube Get David's Tax-free Tool Kit at taxfreetoolkit.com

Last month the Congressional Budget Office projected an $11.5 billion shortfall in Pell funding by fiscal year 2027. The program provides need-based federal financial aid for more than 30 percent of American college students. Part of the funding problem is that Congress made getting aid easier without appropriating more money to cover the increase in students gaining access. Finding a solution requires out of the box thinking that creates sustainable funding without limiting opportunity for first-generation students, according to this week's guest, Kristin Hultquist, the founder and CEO of HCM strategies and an expert in higher education policy and strategy development. In this episode of The Key, Hultquist speaks with Inside Higher Ed's editor in chief Sara Custer about what a long-term funding strategy for a modern Pell Grant program could look like.   Thank you to our partners at the Gates Foundation for sponsoring this episode. 

This week on "Off The Cuff," Melanie is joined by Karen to discuss what attendees can expect with the upcoming in-person Federal Student Aid (FSA) conference next week. From there, the team debriefs the Congressional Budget Office's new projections of a funding shortfall in the Pell Grant program. Karen then debriefs listeners on the draft 2027-28 FAFSA, which is now open for public comment, and explains how listeners can submit their own comments. Lastly, Melanie walks through NASFAA's recent webinars regarding private loan lending amid the implementation of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), and highlights NASFAA resources. 

To raise taxes on the rich, New York's Mayor wants help from Albany and Gov. Kathy Hochul. And if they refuse? Mamdani now says he'll jack up property taxes by nearly 10%. But isn't overspending the problem? Plus, the Congressional Budget Office offers an estimate for federal deficits over the next decade: $24 trillion. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this special President's Day pop-up episode, the GovNavigators break down a fast-moving week in federal management and policy. They unpack the latest partial shutdown and what it really means for DHS employees, travelers, and the long-term outlook for TSA, along with the state of negotiations between the White House and Congress.The conversation turns to the Congressional Budget Office's new long-term deficit projection, the Small Business Administration's termination of more than 150 8(a) contracts and what it signals for the federal contracting community, and a notable Washington Post release of a searchable database of federal AI use cases, and what it says about the government's progress (and remaining challenges) in making data usable.Enjoy the long weekend, folks!Show Notes:Robert, there are a total of four presidents with alliterative names, they are: Woodrow Wilson (28th President)Calvin Coolidge (30th President)Herbert Hoover (31st President)Ronald Reagan (40th President) 

Larry Kudlow and his guests argue that achieving 3.5% real GDP growth is the essential key to balancing the national debt and ensuring long-term prosperity. They critique the conservative estimates of the Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve, asserting that these institutions fail to account for the massive economic potential of deregulation and productivity booms driven by artificial intelligence. The discussion emphasizes that a combination of low taxes and reduced regulatory costs will foster an environment of unlimited growth, effectively countering the redistributionist policies of political opponents. Finally, the group addresses internal administration shifts, celebrating a move toward free-market antitrust principles over populist interventions to ensure American corporate dominance remains unchallenged. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Congressional Budget Office projects the federal budget deficit, now at $1.9 trillion, will rise to $3.1 trillion by 2036. According to the CBO, deficits will grow relative to the size of the economy, driven largely by rising net interest costs. The projection comes amid scrutiny of tax cuts and federal benefits passed under the Trump administration. Subscribe to our newsletter to stay informed with the latest news from a leading Black-owned & controlled media company: https://aurn.com/newsletter Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Congressional Budget Office projects the federal budget deficit, now at $1.9 trillion, will rise to $3.1 trillion by 2036. According to the CBO, deficits will grow relative to the size of the economy, driven largely by rising net interest costs. The projection comes amid scrutiny of tax cuts and federal benefits passed under the Trump administration. Subscribe to our newsletter to stay informed with the latest news from a leading Black-owned & controlled media company: https://aurn.com/newsletter Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Wednesday, February 11, 2026 In this episode: Democrats accused Attorney General Pam Bondi of turning the Justice Department "into Trump's instrument of revenge"; a federal grand jury refused to indict six Democratic lawmakers over a video that reminded active-duty military and intelligence personnel they must refuse unlawful orders; the House voted to rescind the national emergency Trump used to impose tariffs on Canada, with six Republicans joining nearly all Democrats in approving the resolution; U.S. employers added 130,000 jobs in January and unemployment fell to 4.3%; the Congressional Budget Office projected a $1.85 trillion deficit this fiscal year, rising past $3 trillion by 2036; and 60% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of border security and immigration. Read more: Day 1849: "Not sustainable." Newsletter: Get the daily edition of WTFJHT in your inbox Feedback? Let me know what you think AI Policy: My AI policy

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured  The Congressional Budget Office warns that U.S. deficits and interest costs are set to explode in the coming years. Chris breaks down the numbers, explains why simply cutting interest rates won't magically reduce the national debt, and reveals the fiscal reality behind America's growing budget crisis.

Plus: A forecast from the Congressional Budget Office estimates deepening deficits over the next decade. And Kraft Heinz pumps the brakes on its breakup plan. Alex Ossola hosts. Sign up for WSJ's free What's News newsletter. An artificial-intelligence tool assisted in the making of this episode by creating summaries that were based on Wall Street Journal reporting and reviewed and adapted by an editor. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Attorney General Pam Bondi testifies before the House Judiciary Committee with many of the questions about the Justice Department's handling of files related to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and many news articles describing her exchanges with Democrats on the committee as 'sparring' or 'combative'; Senate Democrats indicate they will oppose extending Homeland Security Department funding beyond Friday's deadline, even for a short time, without acceptable reforms to immigration enforcement attached; House votes on a bill to require proof of U.S. citizenship to vote; January jobs report from the Labor Department is stronger than many expected; House votes on a resolution to overturn President Donald Trump's emergency declaration that allowed him to put tariffs on Canada; President Trump promotes the use of coal; New federal deficit & national debt projects from the Congressional Budget Office; Senate Democrats are outraged that federal prosecutors tried to get an indictment against six Democratic lawmakers who posted a video telling active-duty members of the military and intelligence community they should refuse illegal orders. The grand jury refused to indict; Former boxing champion Mike Tyson talks about his Super Bowl ad promoting the Trump Administration's new dietary guidelines. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Show LinksThe Congress, the Golden Fleet, and the Shipbuilding Industrial Base in 2026SummaryIn this episode of Midrats, Sal and Mark engage with Eric Labs, a senior analyst at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), to discuss the complexities of shipbuilding costs, the role of the CBO in providing independent estimates, and the challenges faced by the U.S. Navy in maintaining and expanding its fleet. Eric shares insights on the differences between CBO and Navy cost estimates, the impact of maintenance on overall ship costs, and the importance of a skilled labor force in shipbuilding. The conversation also touches on the historical context of shipbuilding budgets, congressional appropriations, and the future of naval forces in the face of evolving defense needs.Dr. Eric Labs is Senior Analyst for Naval Forces and Weapons at the Congressional Budget Office in Washington, D.C. He specializes in issues related to the procurement, budgeting, and sizing of the forces for the Department of the Navy. He received his doctorate in political science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and graduated from Tufts University, summa cum laude, in 1988. He has worked for the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis in Cambridge, Massachusetts and, from 1994 to 1995, as a Visiting Scholar at the Center for International Security Studies at the University of Maryland. Dr. Labs has been with the Congressional Budget Office since 1995. Chapters00:00: Introduction to the CBO and Eric Labs03:01: Understanding the Role of the CBO06:01: Cost Estimation Approaches in Shipbuilding08:54: Historical Context of CBO Estimates vs Navy Estimates12:04: Challenges in Shipbuilding Cost Estimates15:09: The Impact of Maintenance on Ship Costs18:00: Congressional Budgeting and Shipbuilding Appropriations20:48: Labor Force Challenges in Shipbuilding23:58: Future of the U.S. Navy Fleet and Shipbuilding27:05: Conclusion and Future Considerations

According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act will slash more than a trillion dollars in federal spending from Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program by 2034. Judy Woodruff examines what those cuts could mean for home and community care providers who serve adults with special needs. It's part of her series, Disability Reframed. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy

Chicago City Council advances plan to strengthen enforcement of the Welcoming City Ordinance. THC drinks have come to the United Center. A Congressional Budget Office report shows $21 million was spent on deploying the National Guard to Chicago for “Operation Midway Blitz”.In the Loop breaks down those stories and more with Fox 32's Paris Schutz, WBEZ's Dan Mihalopoulos and Carrie Shepherd of AXIOS Chicago. For a full archive of In the Loop interviews, head over to wbez.org/intheloop.

Today's Headlines: President Donald Trump claims Iran has stopped killing protesters and is reportedly delaying potential U.S. military strikes after warnings from Israel and other allies. Instead, the administration announced new sanctions targeting Iran's Supreme National Security Council chief and 18 others tied to its shadow banking network. The U.S. Coast Guard seized a sixth oil tanker accused of violating sanctions on Venezuelan oil, while opposition leader María Corina Machado visited the White House, saying she presented Trump with her Nobel Peace Prize — despite the Nobel Committee's reminder that prizes aren't transferable. In a Reuters interview, Trump touted his economy as the strongest in history, dismissed polling opposing U.S. control of Greenland as “fake,” brushed off criticism of his investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and questioned midterm elections. Tensions escalated in Minneapolis after an ICE agent shot a man during an attempted arrest. DHS says the man entered the U.S. from Venezuela in 2022 and tried to flee, though details remain unclear. As protests grow, Trump has threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act and deploy the military. The Washington Post also reports that the death of immigrant detainee Geraldo Lunas Campos at a Texas border detention camp will be ruled a homicide, with witnesses alleging he was choked by guards. ICE Deputy Director Madison Sheahan resigned to run for Congress in Ohio, saying Trump “deserves a Congress that stands firmly behind his agenda.” Elsewhere, the EEOC is suing the University of Pennsylvania over antisemitism complaints and demanding lists of Jewish-affiliated groups and faculty — raising alarms about the creation of a centralized registry. A federal appeals court also cleared the way for the deportation of Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil. And finally, the Congressional Budget Office estimates rebranding the Department of Defense as the “Department of War” could cost up to $125 million. Resources/Articles mentioned in this episode: NYT: Venezuela Opposition Leader Machado Gives Trump Her Nobel Peace Prize: Live Updates AP News: Live updates: Venezuela's Machado presents Trump her Nobel Peace Prize Reuters: Five takeaways from the Reuters interview of President Trump WaPo: ICE agent shoots man in leg as Minneapolis protests flare Axios: Trump threatens Insurrection Act for Minnesota WaPo: Medical examiner believes death of man in ICE custody was homicide, recording says Axios: ICE deputy director Madison Sheahan resigns to launch GOP campaign for Congress in Ohio  Inquirer: Jewish students and faculty at Penn ask that their names not be turned over in federal antisemitism investigation CNN: Appeals court reverses decision that freed Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil Axios: Trump's "Department of War" rebrand could cost $125 million Morning Announcements is produced by Sami Sage and edited by Grace Hernandez-Johnson Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Agriculture is directly responsible for 10 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, and farmers and ranchers face growing climate impacts every day, from more severe storms to intense droughts, making it harder to grow food.  The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimates emissions from the agriculture sector will modestly increase over the next 30 years. Yet the Trump administration is slashing programs that help reduce emissions, feed people, protect farmworkers and animals and sensitive lands. In addition, the Trump administration's tariffs and trade wars have affected the cost of machinery and sales of major crops. What will these changes mean for our national food system? How are farmers weathering these impacts? And where are people building resilience regardless of federal policy?  Episode Guests: Lisa Held, Senior Staff Reporter and Contributing Editor, Civil Eats Megan O'Rourke, Congressional Candidate NJ07; Former USDA Scientist John Bartman, Illinois farmer Byron Kominek, Owner and Manager, Jack's Solar Garden Highlights: 00:00 – Intro 05:30 – Lisa Held on major climate and agriculture stories in 2025 07:30 – Climate change is making it harder to be a farmer 09:15 – Changes at USDA 15:00 – How SNAP cuts affect consumers and farmers/growers 18:30 – Trump admin penalizing efforts/grants that support DEI efforts in agriculture 24:00 – John Bartman shares his journey to regenerative agriculture 30:00 – Partnership for Climate Smart Commodities Program and cutbacks under Trump 34:30 – Trade war between China and US is hurting soybean sales and Amazon rainforest 37:10 – Byron Kominek on how he got into agrivoltaics and the benefits it offers 42:00 – Agrivoltaics is climate adaptation 51:20 – Megan O'Rourke on research around kernza, a perennial grain 54:00 – Most pressing challenges for agriculture right now 59:00 – Importance of food security at home and abroad, and role of US farmers 1:03:30 – Climate One More Thing For show notes , transcript, and related links, visit climateone.org/podcasts ****** Support Climate One by going ad-free! By subscribing to Climate One on Patreon, you'll receive exclusive access to all future episodes free of ads, opportunities to connect with fellow Climate One listeners, and access to the Climate One Discord. Sign up today at patreon.com/ClimateOne.  Ad sales by Multitude. Contact them for ad inquiries at multitude.productions/ads Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Agriculture is directly responsible for 10 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, and farmers and ranchers face growing climate impacts every day, from more severe storms to intense droughts, making it harder to grow food.  The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office ⁠estimates⁠ emissions from the agriculture sector will modestly increase over the next 30 years. Yet the Trump administration is ⁠slashing programs ⁠that help reduce emissions, feed people, protect farmworkers and animals and sensitive lands. In addition, the Trump administration's tariffs and trade wars have affected the cost of machinery and sales of major crops. What will these changes mean for our national food system? How are farmers weathering these impacts? And where are people building resilience regardless of federal policy?  Episode Guests: Lisa Held, Senior Staff Reporter and Contributing Editor, Civil Eats Megan O'Rourke, Congressional Candidate NJ07; Former USDA Scientist John Bartman, Illinois farmer Byron Kominek, Owner and Manager, Jack's Solar Garden Highlights: 00:00 – Intro 05:30 – Lisa Held on major climate and agriculture stories in 2025 07:30 – Climate change is making it harder to be a farmer 09:15 – Changes at USDA 15:00 – How SNAP cuts affect consumers and farmers/growers 18:30 – Trump admin penalizing efforts/grants that support DEI efforts in agriculture 24:00 – John Bartman shares his journey to regenerative agriculture 30:00 – Partnership for Climate Smart Commodities Program and cutbacks under Trump 34:30 – Trade war between China and US is hurting soybean sales and Amazon rainforest 37:10 – Byron Kominek on how he got into agrivoltaics and the benefits it offers 42:00 – Agrivoltaics is climate adaptation 51:20 – Megan O'Rourke on research around kernza, a perennial grain 54:00 – Most pressing challenges for agriculture right now 59:00 – Importance of food security at home and abroad, and role of US farmers 1:03:30 – Climate One More Thing For show notes , transcript, and related links, visit climateone.org/podcasts ****** Support Climate One by going ad-free! By subscribing to Climate One on ⁠Patreon⁠, you'll receive exclusive access to all future episodes free of ads, opportunities to connect with fellow Climate One listeners, and access to the Climate One Discord. Sign up today at ⁠patreon.com/ClimateOne⁠.  Ad sales by ⁠Multitude⁠. Contact them for ad inquiries at ⁠multitude.productions/ads Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What happens when love isn’t enough to hold up a broken system? Ai-jen Poo—award-winning organizer and executive director of the National Domestic Workers Alliance—joins Kate Bowler to talk about caregiving in America. Who provides it. Who’s left out. And why we need a system that treats care as the sacred, shared labor that it is. Together they explore: Why more than 100 million Americans are caregiving right now What it costs to support a loved one—and why the math doesn’t add up The long shadow of slavery in how we treat domestic workers today Why dignity and agency are essential in every stage of life What it would look like to build a policy solution that works for everyone If you’re carrying the care of someone else—or fearing the moment when you will—this conversation is for you. Show Notes Caring Across Generations – A movement co-led by Ai-jen Poo to transform the way we care in America. National Domestic Workers Alliance – Advocating for the dignity and rights of the people who care for our homes and loved ones. The Age of Dignity by Ai-jen Poo – A powerful read on what the “elder boom” means for all of us. Find your elected officials – Contact Congress to protect Medicaid and support caregiving policies. State-by-state Medicaid info – Learn what Medicaid is called in your state and how it supports care. Congressional Budget Office – For context on recent Medicaid budget cuts and projections for coverage loss. Aspen Ideas Festival Share your caregiving story on Substack – Join the conversation with others who are navigating care. A Blessing for Care-Givers and Care-Receivers – A gentle word for those in the trenches of giving or needing care. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When Republicans passed their big domestic policy bill just over a week ago, they kept making the same argument about sweeping changes to Medicaid: that the measures, including new work requirements, would encourage able-bodied adults to earn their health care, ultimately creating a fairer system for everyone. Critics said the opposite: they have predicted that millions of working people who need health care will lose it.The truth will emerge in rural and often Republican-voting areas where cuts to Medicaid funding will be felt most deeply. Natalie Kitroeff spoke to a family doctor in one of those places, western North Carolina, about what she thinks will happen to her patients.Guest: Shannon Dowler, a family physician and health advocate in western North Carolina.Background reading: In North Carolina, President Trump's domestic policy law jeopardizes plans to reopen one rural county's hospital — and health coverage for hundreds of thousands of state residents.The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office predicted that the Senate's version of Trump's bill would mean that 11.8 million more Americans would become uninsured by 2034.For more information on today's episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday. Photo: Kaoly Gutierrez for The New York Times Unlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

President Trump has called the sweeping domestic policy bill that recently passed in the House the most important piece of legislation in his second term — a single bill that would unlock his entire domestic agenda.But as that bill heads to the Senate, it's raising questions among Republicans about whom Trumpism is really for. Today, the New York Times congressional correspondent Catie Edmondson joins “The Daily” to talk about the big messy battle over what Republicans have named the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.Guest: Catie Edmondson, a congressional correspondent for The New York Times.Background reading: President Trump is pressuring Republicans to back his policy bill, but the measure's opponents have a powerful new ally: Elon Musk.Mr. Trump's policy bill would add $2.4 trillion to the national debt, the Congressional Budget Office said on Wednesday. That estimate was all but certain to inflame concerns over the fiscal consequences of the legislation.For more information on today's episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.Photo: Kenny Holston/The New York Times Unlock full access to New York Times podcasts and explore everything from politics to pop culture. Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.