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A ceasefire is supposed to lower the temperature, not provide new vocabulary for the same war. We unpack reports that the U.S. bombed targets in Iran after a ceasefire and why calling it “self-defense” can still function as a direct escalation. I walk through what those strikes signal, how each side tries to define the rules midstream, and why Iran may tolerate only so many “limited” hits before choosing a bigger response. From there, we get specific about the hard constraints behind the headlines: weapons stockpiles, interceptor burn rates, and how long it can take to replace key munitions. That context changes everything about threats, deterrence, and the realism of returning to a high-intensity U.S. Iran war. We also break down Marco Rubio's public talking points on Iran's nuclear program, what U.S. intelligence and international monitoring have said, and the reported outlines of a possible memorandum of understanding that touches sanctions relief, frozen assets, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump's White House remarks add another layer, including talk about Hormuz control and a shocking shot at Oman, one of the most important mediators in U.S. Iran diplomacy. We connect that to the bigger regional picture, including Israel, Lebanon, and the Washington voices pushing to keep the fight going. Finally, we pivot to Jill Biden saying she feared Joe Biden was “having a stroke” during the 2024 debate and what that raises about cognitive decline, transparency, and the massive war powers concentrated in the presidency.

CJ decided he needed a break from modern US history as he continues to recover & reset his life, so this is the first episode of a new DHP miniseries set during the Peloponnesian War in 5th century BC Greece. The series will primarily focus on a famous Athenian military expedition to Sicily that occurred right in the middle of that conflict, an expedition that, to CJ, is eerily similar in some ways to the current war with Iran. This first episode, though, is backstory & world-building, setting the stage for the massive, complex & costly Peloponnesian War of 431-404 BC during which the Sicilian expedition occurred. Join CJ as he discusses: A brief overview of ancient Greek history, from the Bronze Age through the Persian invasions of 490 & 480 BC. The growing rivalries & tensions between the Peloponnesian League (led by Sparta) & the Delian League (led by Athens) in the aftermath of the Persian Wars, including Athens’ increasingly aggressive & destabilizing imperialism, & Sparta’s fears about it The rise of Pericles & the construction of the Athenian Long Walls The ‘first’ Peloponnesian War of ~460 BC-445 BC, which ended with a treaty known as “The Thirty Years’ Peace” The rising tensions & conflicts that caused the Thirty Years’ Peace to only last about half as long as it was intended to The ancient Greek historian Thucydides The escalating conflicts that led, in 431 BC, to the outbreak of the Second Peloponnesian War (sometimes just referred to as “The Peloponnesian War”), a conflict that would end up dwarfing the previous war in duration, cost, death & destruction Like this episode? You can throw CJ a $ tip via Paypal here: https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=D6VUYSYQ4EU6L Throw CJ a $ tip via Venmo here: https://www.venmo.com/u/dangerousmedia Or throw CJ a BTC tip here: bc1qfrz9erz7dqazh9rhz3j7nv696nl52ux8unw79z Amazon Affiliate Links (buy ANYTHING from Amazon using any of these links & CJ gets a small commission at no cost to you!) The Landmark Thucydides: A Comprehensive Guide to the Peloponnesian War A War Like No Other: How the Athenians and Spartans Fought the Peloponnesian War by Victor Davis Hanson The Peloponnesian War by Donald Kagan The Life of Greece: The Story of Civilization, Vol. II by Will Durant Links Support the Dangerous History Podcast via Patreon Subscribe to the Dangerous History Podcast Youtube Channel Follow CJ on Twitter/X Follow the DHP on Facebook Hire CJ to speak to your group or at your event Other ways to support the show

Memorial Day brings out a lot of scripted lines, but we want to talk about the part that gets avoided: what American wars actually cost, who pays, and how often the public is left holding the bill while elites chase ideology, influence, and profit. We start by looking at the human consequences for service members and veterans, and why so many deployments overseas end with the same problems still on the table, just with more graves and more resentment. Then we shift into the biggest moving story right now: Iran negotiations, the Iran nuclear program, and why the phrase “on the brink of a deal” can be more propaganda than reality. We break down uranium enrichment in plain language, what the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty allows, and why demanding “zero enrichment” is not a technical detail but a deal-killer. We also explain how Lebanon and Hezbollah change the endgame, why escalations in southern Lebanon can function as sabotage, and how the Strait of Hormuz becomes real leverage that reshapes every calculation. We also react to Trump's messaging, including his push to fold Iran into the Abraham Accords, what those normalization deals have meant in practice, and how they can drive an arms race while adding impossible complexity to already fragile diplomacy. Along the way, we play and respond to clips featuring Cory Booker, plus a debate moment where Mearsheimer and Walt confront Pompeo and Nuland's talking points, and we close with a quick look at Thomas Massie signaling a possible national run.

Trump says he wants “few people killed,” then talks like bombing Iran is a weekly calendar event. That contradiction is where we start, because the public narrative around the Iran war keeps snapping from all-out threats to last-minute “negotiations” as deadlines magically extend. I walk through why that cycle looks less like strategy and more like a president boxed in by bad options, public messaging, and allies with their own priorities. From there, we get into the part most outlets blur: the difference between political victory laps and what US intelligence and reporting suggest on the ground. If Iran can rebuild its drone program faster than expected and still holds a large share of missile and launcher capacity, then “we crippled them” becomes a dangerous story to believe. We also talk about what Iran likely learned from recent strikes and why modern drone warfare and air defense evolve at a pace that makes simple claims obsolete. Then we widen the lens to the power side of the equation: can Trump actually control Netanyahu, or is Washington being pulled by Israeli pressure through Congress? I connect that to a Washington Post-reported defense strategy that burns through American interceptor stockpiles, and to the Thomas Massie primary loss, where massive spending and media targeting mattered more than most people want to admit. If you want clear Iran war analysis, Strait of Hormuz leverage, uranium enrichment stakes, and the US politics that shape it all, hit play. Subscribe, share the show, and leave a review, what's the one detail you think the mainstream story keeps avoiding?

Dave joins me to discuss his rediscovery of faith, how it supports his work, and the wars America is involved in. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/christians-and-hezbollah-unite-against-epstein-empire/ar-AA1ZcAt2

A professor makes a $500 campaign donation and suddenly gets cast as the “most important man in America” pulling congressional strings. That absurd story is the perfect doorway into what we really care about here: how narratives get manufactured, why propaganda works, and what it's doing to both domestic politics and foreign policy. We start with science diplomacy and cultural diplomacy, the old-school idea that researchers, students, artists, and athletes can keep human ties alive even when governments can't stand each other. Joe explains how that cooperative model is being redefined across the West into something closer to state leverage, where technology sharing and academic exchange are treated as tools to punish rivals. We connect that to a broader post-truth media environment, where sound bites beat evidence, repetition beats nuance, and voters can be segmented by where they get their news. Then we move to North Korea and try to replace slogans with incentives. We talk Kim Jong-un's regime survival logic, the strategic reasons nuclear deterrence persists, and why US policy whiplash makes long-term deals hard to trust. We also dig into North Korea's tightening relationship with Russia, China's concern about influence and instability on its border, and how sanctions can push sanctioned states into deeper trade and technology cooperation. Finally, we touch on rare earth minerals and why they could matter in the next phase of Korean Peninsula geopolitics. If you want a clearer framework for understanding science diplomacy, misinformation, and North Korea strategy, listen through and share it with someone who only sees headlines. Subscribe, leave a review, and tell us what you think credible peace and credible reporting should look like.

Trump's China summit gets sold as strength, but the details tell a different story. We dig into what the U.S. says it achieved versus what China actually signals afterward, especially on Iran and regional security. From our seat, the big issue is leverage: if Beijing won't bend and Washington can't compel, the talking points don't matter much. That gap shows up immediately in the most unglamorous place possible, supply chains and rare earth minerals that can quietly slow U.S. weapons production. We also get into Taiwan and the argument you hear everywhere: microchips, economic survival, and the idea that the U.S. has no choice but to confront China. We challenge that framing with a hard look at policy commitments, strategic ambiguity, and whether arms sales mean anything if the industrial base can't deliver on time. If you care about U.S. China relations, Taiwan strategy, and the real limits of military power, this part connects the dots in plain language. Then we turn to Iran and the “short, powerful strike” narrative. We walk through the operational reality: aircraft range, KC-135 air refueling, basing in the Gulf, and why Saudi, Qatari, and Kuwaiti cooperation can effectively veto a plan. We also talk escalation, the Strait of Hormuz, and how regional actors could widen the conflict fast. Finally, we bring it home to U.S. politics with the Israel lobby debate and the high-stakes Thomas Massey primary as a test of money, influence, and war policy. Subscribe, share the episode with a friend, and leave a review telling us what you think we got right or wrong.

I discuss the darker side of celebrating war and the moral injury of wars of choice. Memorial Day is a day of remembrance and an existential wake.This day is about the ashes of victory and blood lakes of defeat. I show how the American way of war is far more brutal and murderous than the usual suspects let on.***This episode is not for the squeamish or faint of heart.***U.S. WAR CRIMES IN THE PHILIPPINESJames M. Scott Rampage: MacArthur, Yamashita, and the Battle of ManilaHoward Jones My Lai: Vietnam, 1968, and the Descent into DarknessKarl Marlantes What It Is Like to Go to WarBill Russel Edmonds God is Not Here: A Soldier’s Struggle with Torture, Trauma, and the Moral Injuries of WarClark Savage King of All Things: A Guide to Man’s Martial PurposeDick Couch A Tactical Ethic: Moral Conduct in the Insurgent BattlespaceAndrew Bacevich Paths of Dissent: Soldiers Speak Out Against America’s Misguided WarsShauna Springer WARRIOR: How to Support Those Who Protect UsJonathan Shay Achilles in Vietnam: Combat Trauma and the Undoing of CharacterJonathan Shay Odysseus in America: Combat Trauma and the Trials of HomecomingAnother podcast:Martyrmade: Anything That Moves – The My Lai Massacre (w/History on Fire)Email me at cgpodcast@pm.meMy Substack

 Download Audio. Scott brings Dave DeCamp back on the show to run through some of the biggest foreign policy news. They start with Trump's trip to meet with Xi in China which may have had some implications for US policy towards Taiwan. They then discuss whether Trump is really planning to bomb Iran again if talks continue to get nowhere. DeCamp then provides an update on the chaos and violence that has kicked off in Iraq, Lebanon and Gaza as a result of Trump and Netanyahu's decision to launch their regional war. Discussed on the show: “Trump Says He Decided To ‘Hold Off' on Plans To Attack Iran on Tuesday Due To Request From Gulf Arab Allies” (Antiwar.com) “Israeli Strikes Kill Seven in Lebanon, Overall War Toll Passes 3,000 Killed” (Antiwar.com) “Israeli Strike on Gaza City Kills One Palestinian as Constant IDF Ceasefire Violations Continue” (Antiwar.com) Dave DeCamp is the news editor of Antiwar.com and the host of Antiwar News with Dave DeCamp. Follow him on Twitter @decampdave  Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show! For more on Scott’s work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott’s books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw Fool's Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0 Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott's full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods' Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com You can also support Scott's work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

John and I continue commentary and reading Rules for Radicals

A president calling reporters “treasonous” isn't just a hot take, it's a warning sign. Harrison Berger joins me to break down how that rhetoric is being used to police debate around the Iran war, and why it echoes years of reckless “traitor” accusations aimed at anyone who questions America's national security consensus. We start with the Israel lobby and J Street, the organization often marketed as the reasonable, liberal alternative to AIPAC. Harrison explains what J Street is, who it appeals to, and why its “pro-Israel and pro-democracy” framing is colliding with shifting US public opinion after the Gaza war. We also talk about the idea of a new antiwar center forming across party lines, where younger voters and non-interventionists are increasingly skeptical of endless foreign aid packages and blank-check military policy. From there we get specific about the Iran conflict: what claims of “total victory” leave out, how the Strait of Hormuz and regional ceasefire demands shape leverage, and why negotiations bog down when Washington stays fixated on narrow talking points while Iran prioritizes sanctions relief and non-aggression guarantees. We close on Taiwan and China, where Trump's walkback gestures toward de-escalation, but Congress, arms sales pipelines, and defense procurement inertia may keep pushing the US toward another dangerous commitment. Subscribe for more conversations like this, share the episode with a friend who cares about foreign policy, and leave a review so more people can find the show.

Trump comes back from Beijing claiming he got a major concession from Xi on Iran, but what happens when the key details are private, unverifiable, and packaged for headlines? We walk through the public messaging, the contradictions, and the incentives on both sides, then ask the blunt question: was this diplomacy, or was it theater designed to look like leverage? We also dig into Xi's unusually direct framing about a world “at a crossroads” and the Thucydides Trap, and why that language matters for U.S.-China relations, great power competition, and the risk of conflict over Taiwan. From there, we zoom out to the uncomfortable economics underneath the politics: the U.S. fixation on zero-sum thinking, the role of finance and corporate power, and why sanctions and “decoupling” rhetoric keep colliding with the reality that American industry still wants access to China's market. Then the conversation turns to Middle East geopolitics where the leverage is tangible. We break down Iran's position in the Strait of Hormuz, what it means when Chinese shipping can keep moving, and why Gulf states like Saudi Arabia are floating non-aggression ideas that could quietly constrain U.S. basing and overflight options across the GCC. We close by looking at China's growing role as a facilitator, the UAE as an outlier, and what a post-U.S.-dominant regional order might look like. If you want clearer thinking on Trump foreign policy, Xi Jinping diplomacy, Iran strategy, and the shifting balance of power, hit play, subscribe, and share the episode with a friend. After you listen, what do you think is the biggest misread Washington makes about China right now?

Trump heads to China with a lineup of high-profile U.S. business leaders, but we can't treat it like a normal trade trip. We dig into the uncomfortable reality underneath the photo ops: America's dependence on rare earth minerals and specialized refining, including gallium used in key defense systems. When conflict drains equipment and replacement timelines stretch into years, “leverage” starts looking a lot like a supply chain problem with geopolitical consequences. From there, we track the signs that the Iran war could ramp back up fast, including talk of a new operation name and the legal gymnastics around the War Powers Act. We weigh Trump's stated focus on Iran and nuclear weapons against the real-world costs hitting Americans at home, especially gasoline prices and broader inflation. Then we pressure-test victory claims with reported intelligence assessments, missile math, and the equipment losses that matter when deterrence depends on readiness. We also take a detour to Ukraine, where Russia's public ceasefire conditions and nuclear signaling add another layer to already fragile negotiations, especially as U.S. munitions stockpiles tighten. Finally, we bring it back to U.S. politics with the AOC vs MTG clash and Mike Huckabee's rhetoric, asking how labels and moral gatekeeping shape what coalitions are even possible on Israel, Gaza, and foreign policy. Subscribe for daily breakdowns, share this with a friend who follows geopolitics, and leave a review with the one point you think the media is missing most.

Good news — things have finally stabilized for CJ & his family, & he has finally fully recovered from the illnesses that caused him to be hospitalized in March! He’s now back at the podcasting game full-force, hard at work on upcoming Dangerous History material, & this week he also returned Brave the New World, the weekly current events & media analysis show that he cohosts with Matt Carano. This DHP episode features the audio of CJ’s triumphant return to BTNW after a few months’ absence. Join CJ & Matt as they discuss the low- & even-lower-lights of current events in recent months, & try to come to grips with the insanity that the 2nd Trump administration is inflicting on the world. Like this episode? You can throw CJ a $ tip via Paypal here: https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=D6VUYSYQ4EU6L Throw CJ a $ tip via Venmo here: https://www.venmo.com/u/dangerousmedia Or throw CJ a BTC tip here: bc1qfrz9erz7dqazh9rhz3j7nv696nl52ux8unw79z Links Support the Dangerous History Podcast via Patreon Other ways to support the show (including CJ’s PO Box address) BTNW on Youtube BTNW on Spotify BTNW on Apple Podcasts Subscribe to the Dangerous History Podcast Youtube Channel Follow CJ on Twitter/X Follow the DHP on Instagram Follow the DHP on Facebook Hire CJ to speak to your group or at your event

A president says he has “the best plan ever,” insists Iran is “defeated militarily,” and talks like one more strike package can end the problem. We slow that down and look at the actual mechanics of a modern Iran war: depleted standoff munitions, limited Patriot and THAAD interceptors, and an opponent that can keep producing missiles while the US waits years to scale replacement. When leaders believe in a clean, conventional ending, they can stumble into the kind of escalation neither side can fully control. We also dig into why the nuclear weapon talking point is more complicated than the sound bite. Before the shooting, international monitoring and US intelligence assessments did not treat an Iranian bomb as inevitable, and we talk through the grim possibility that attacks on nuclear facilities can push Tehran toward the very deterrent Washington claims to fear. Add in the Strait of Hormuz and you get the economic dimension: shipping risk, energy infrastructure vulnerability, and the gas price shock that hits everyday Americans fast. From there, we pivot to Netanyahu's comments on 60 Minutes about keeping the war going, and what it means when leaders admit they are losing the information war. We close with Putin's remarks on a May 8 to May 9 truce and the competing Ukraine ceasefire narratives, then flag a new report that Trump is frustrated Cuba still exists and wants regime change there next. If you found this breakdown useful, subscribe, share the show with a friend, and leave a review with the question you want us to tackle next.

A “ceasefire” that still includes ships getting shot at isn't a ceasefire, it's a pressure campaign with a short fuse. Kyle sits down with Lieutenant Colonel Karen Kwiatkowski to make sense of the newest swings in the Iran conflict, from limited strikes and fast Iranian responses to the bigger question nobody wants to answer: what is the actual endgame, and who is paying the price while leaders posture? We dig into the details of the so-called U.S. blockade and why it's morphing into something far more dangerous. Karen explains how the mission shifts from lawful interdiction to standoff attacks, why logistics and force protection drive those choices, and how the military can get trapped trying to “make it work” for a civilian commander who doesn't operate in reality. Along the way, we react to Trump's own words, including rhetoric that reads like nuclear escalation, and we ask the blunt question: could an order like that be given, and what happens inside the chain of command if it is? Then we bring it home to the real-world impact most people feel first: oil prices and gas prices. We talk about how energy shocks ripple through summer travel, tourism, rural budgets, and U.S. politics, and why the pain may lag even if the shooting stops tomorrow. We close with a lighter but revealing detour into the UFO file dump and whether it functions as distraction when the public is demanding accountability on very different stories.

It’s been quite some time since I have responded to “mail” so I have curated five questions to address:. What should the USAF do now? Is fraud a form of irregular warfare? What should the DoW do with 1.5 trillion dollars? References: Unauthorized History of the Pacific War Podcast RAND wish-casting on drones in 2015. Slaughterbots (2017) Slaughterbots: if human: kill() (2021) How are Drones Changing Modern Warfare? Sun Tzu The Art of War Carl von Clausewitz On War Miyamoto Musashi A Book of Five Rings: The Classic Guide to Strategy H. John Poole The Last Hundred Yards: The NCO's Contribution to Warfare Christian Brose The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare Qiao Liang & Wang Xiangsui Unrestricted Warfare: China’s Master Plan to Destroy America My Substack Email at cgpodcast@pm.me

Your phone buzzing with political ads the moment you step into a church parking lot sounds like satire, but the documents and contracts point to something very real. We sit down with Nick Cleveland-Stout of the Quincy Institute (and a writer at Drop Site News) to track a sweeping Israeli influence campaign in the United States that goes far beyond the usual Capitol Hill lobbying. The focus is American Protestants, especially evangelicals, and the mission is simple: stop the bleeding in public opinion as younger conservatives grow skeptical of unconditional US support for Israel. We dig into the details behind plans tied to Show Faith by Works, including church geofencing, sponsored Israel trips, proposed celebrity outreach, and even a traveling October 7 “experience” concept. Then we ask the uncomfortable question: if the polls keep moving the other direction, is the problem really the messaging or the actions people see coming out of Gaza, southern Lebanon, and the West Bank? Nick also walks us through his newest reporting on Eagle's Wings and Israel Advocacy Day, where lobbying meetings and Hill materials are reportedly supported by Israeli Foreign Ministry funding without clear FARA registration. From there, we connect the dots to conservative media, including Salem Media and a major contract tied to Brad Parscale, plus a growing effort to shape the information environment online by building websites designed to influence how AI tools and chatbots answer questions. If you care about foreign influence, lobbying transparency, FARA enforcement, evangelical Christian Zionism, US military aid to Israel, and the politics of Iran and the wider Middle East, this conversation is a must. Subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review, then tell us what part of this influence machine worries you most.

One bad assumption can start a bigger war, and nowhere is that clearer than the Strait of Hormuz. Kyle sits down with Larry Johnson to sort through the morning's flood of claims and counterclaims: reported Iranian missile and drone attacks, damage to Gulf oil facilities, U.S. strikes at sea, and the growing risk that escalation turns into a sustained U.S. air campaign against Iran. We focus on what can be verified, what is propaganda, and what the military movements suggest is coming next. We also get practical about what “control of the strait” really means. If ships are staying hundreds of miles offshore to avoid Iranian ballistic missiles and drones, can a naval blockade be more talk than reality? Larry lays out the layered threats that make the waterway so hard to “open” quickly: mines, mini submarines, underwater drones, fast attack craft, coastal cruise missiles, and the limits of vessel boarding at scale. For anyone searching Strait of Hormuz analysis, U.S. Navy capabilities, or Iran escalation risk, this is a grounded look at geography and logistics rather than slogans. Then we connect the battlefield to your wallet. We talk oil supply disruption, why missing barrels compound over weeks, how gas prices react, and why sanctions and currency shifts like yuan-based oil payments can reshape global energy markets. We close by looking at the shrinking space for diplomacy, Iran's negotiating posture on nuclear enrichment, and the political pressures leaders face when they need an off ramp. Subscribe for more deep dives, share the episode with a friend who follows geopolitics, and leave a review telling us what question you want answered next.

A journalist can be jailed, raided, and investigated for more than a year without ever being charged and that's not a glitch, it's the point. I sit down with investigative journalist Richard Medhurst to talk about his legal situation spanning the UK and Austria, where authorities have attempted to frame journalism as terrorism. We dig into what that kind of pressure does to reporting, academic work, and basic free speech, especially when the topic is Gaza and Western foreign policy. Then we zoom out to the story Richard says most people are missing: the energy war underneath the news. He argues the U.S. is executing a coherent strategy to dominate global oil and gas supply, protect dollar power, and reshape who gets energy and at what price. We walk through strikes on Russian tankers, refineries, and export hubs, disruptions to LNG flows impacting China, and why “economic defeat” and “military humiliation” aren't the same thing in long-term geopolitical planning. We also look at Europe's role in replacing Russian gas, the Mediterranean gas deals tied to major corporations like Chevron, and the debate over whether Israel drives U.S. decisions or functions as a proxy within a larger corporate-led project. Finally, Richard brings firsthand context from Vienna and the IAEA, explaining how Iran has repeatedly offered nuclear off-ramps while the West escalates with sanctions and condemnation. If this gave you a new lens on press freedom, energy geopolitics, the petrodollar, and U.S. foreign policy, subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review with the one claim you think people most need to argue about.

“Iran's nuclear program was obliterated” is a bold claim to make under oath, especially when the same testimony implies Iran's ambitions remain. We sit down with Jim Webb to pull apart the contradictions, the messaging, and the strategy vacuum that shows up when leaders sell total victory while hinting we may need the next round of strikes. We get into the details most coverage skips: what uranium enrichment levels do and don't mean, how the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty shapes the argument, and how the U.S. exit from the JCPOA changed Iran's incentives. From there, we stress-test the scare stories by looking at deterrence and mutually assured destruction, then compare the “North Korea path” framing with the darker lesson many governments took from Libya: give up your leverage and you might not survive. The second half turns practical and blunt. We talk about the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices, and what a real negotiation might require, including the controversial question of U.S. military bases in the Middle East and whether they deter conflict or simply create targets and hostages. We also break down reports of deploying Dark Eagle hypersonic missiles, shrinking standoff-munitions inventories, and what it signals when targets move inland and our “easy options” disappear. If you care about U.S. foreign policy, Iran negotiations, Middle East escalation risks, and the real state of American military capacity, this conversation is for you. Subscribe, share it with a friend, and leave a review with your answer: what would a realistic endgame with Iran look like?

Trump's second term was supposed to be the reset: less chaos, fewer neocons, and a renewed focus on problems at home. Instead, we're watching an Iran conflict spiral while the administration sells the public a fantasy of easy wins and controlled escalation. I'm joined again by Dave Smith from Part of the Problem to revisit the 2024 election hangover and the uncomfortable question hanging over the right: was backing Trump a strategic mistake? We talk through what a Harris presidency might have meant for censorship, the border, regulation, and war, then pivot to what's undeniable now: the incentives around Trump have changed, and his decision-making looks driven by perception and ego more than principle. From there we get into the real stakes of the Iran war, including why “regime change by air” is a long-shot story, how the Strait of Hormuz turns foreign policy into immediate pain at the pump, and why ending the war could still look like historic humiliation. We also connect the dots to the midterms, Democratic messaging on Gaza and Israel, rising calls for tech censorship against antiwar voices, and the baffling White House security incident that kicked off a wave of conspiracy talk. If you want clear-eyed political analysis that doesn't treat propaganda as news, hit play. Subscribe, share this with a friend, and leave a review so more people can find the show.

The scariest part of the U.S.-Iran standoff isn't the loud headlines. It's the quiet math of distance, missiles, and leverage at the Strait of Hormuz. We sit down with Larry Johnson to unpack Iran's reported “new” framework and why it may be the same core message: lift the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, and Iran controls access through Hormuz while allowing shipping to move. From there, we get brutally practical about what the U.S. can and cannot do militarily. Carrier strike groups have to operate far offshore to avoid Iranian cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones, which pushes Washington toward standoff weapons like Tomahawks and JASSMs. That sounds clean until you ask the real question: what happens when those stockpiles are running thin and you still want credible deterrence against bigger priorities like China? We also talk about reports of improving Iranian air defenses, why that could force even more reliance on standoff munitions, and how reputational damage compounds when adversaries see limits in U.S. power projection. On the geopolitical front, we explore Russia and China's likely role in intelligence support and why diplomacy through intermediaries matters as much as public posturing. And yes, we react to the claim that Iran's oil system is days from catastrophic pipeline failure, and what it says about the quality of intelligence feeding top decisions. If you want clear-eyed analysis of the U.S.-Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions and blockade dynamics, missile stockpiles, and the future of aircraft carriers in modern warfare, hit subscribe, share this with a friend, and leave a review. What's your read on where this goes next?

Daniel Miller joined me to discuss the Texas Nationalist Movement, its history and progress. TNM.me Texian.app

 Download Audio. Scott brings Daniel Davis back on the show. As the world's been focused on what's happening between the US and Iran, important developments have taken place in Russia's war with Ukraine. Scott and Davis break these down and then finish with a quick reflection on the ongoing economic standoff between the US and Iran. Discussed on the show: Daniel Davis / Deep Dive Daniel Davis did multiple tours in Iraq and Afghanistan during his time in the army. He is a Senior Fellow at Defense Priorities and is the author of the reports “Dereliction of Duty II: Senior Military Leaders' Loss of Integrity Wounds Afghan War Effort” and “Go Big or Go Deep: An Analysis of Strategy Options on Afghanistan.” Find him on Twitter @DanielLDavis1and subscribe to his YouTube Channel.  Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show! For more on Scott’s work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott’s books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw Fool's Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0 Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott's full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods' Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com You can also support Scott's work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

“The one institution that should win the Nobel Peace Prize every single year is the United States military.” We start there, because that claim tells you a lot about how Washington sells war and how quickly moral language gets flipped into marketing. I'm joined again by Colonel Karen Kwakowski to unpack the Iran conflict through the lens of military reality, not cable-news fantasy. We talk about what a peace prize is supposed to represent, why Pentagon leadership rarely shows moral courage, and how allegations of war crimes and civilian deaths get waved away with silence instead of scrutiny. Karen also explains why isolating deployed troops from communication matters, and why the stories that surface when sailors and soldiers come home may change how Americans understand this war. From there, we dig into the defense budget, shrinking US weapons inventories, and the military industrial complex incentives that reward expensive systems even when performance disappoints. We connect those failures to the global arms market, NATO frustration, and why allies may start shopping elsewhere. Then we get specific on strategy: what a real Strait of Hormuz blockade would look like, why Trump's “total control” talk doesn't match operational limits, and how even partial disruption can ripple into a global energy crisis. We close with Netanyahu's comments on Iran and Lebanon, the risk of a long regional fight, and Karen's argument that we're watching an era end as the world moves toward a more multipolar order. Subscribe, share this with a friend, and leave a review. What's the most dangerous lie leaders tell themselves when they start a war?

Trump is posting like the Strait of Hormuz is a light switch he controls, but the shipping data, tanker seizures, and oil price spikes point to something far more dangerous: a grinding maritime confrontation that can escalate by accident. We sit down with journalist Dave DeCamp to separate online bravado from real U.S. Navy posture, and to ask what a “ceasefire” even means when a blockade and interdictions continue. We walk through the competing narratives around Iran's decision-making and why claims of a divided leadership don't match the public timeline of conditions, statements, and retaliatory moves. From drone threats to interdictions in the Persian Gulf, the conflict starts to look less like a paused war and more like a shipping war with enormous consequences for global energy markets and everyday gas prices. We also discuss what sustained carrier deployments signal, and why delayed Pentagon injury reporting matters for public accountability. Then we turn to Israel's posture, including explicit statements about waiting for a U.S. green light to renew war with Iran and to devastate civilian infrastructure. We also dig into Israel's Lebanon conduct after a filmed desecration of a Christian statue triggered a PR scramble, and we challenge the “Judeo-Christian alliance” framing by looking at how Christians in Gaza, the West Bank, and the region have been treated amid occupation and war. If you want clear-eyed analysis of U.S.-Iran tensions, the Strait of Hormuz crisis, Israel's pressure campaign, and the propaganda that shapes what Americans think they're seeing, listen now, share it with a friend, and leave a review. What part of this standoff worries you most?

Download Audio. Scott interviews Larry Johnson about where things stand with Trump's war on Iran. The two dig into the cards each side holds as this ceasefire limps along, reflect on the troubling lack of rationality in US policy towards Iran and debunk some common lies and misunderstandings circulating about the conflict. Discussed on the show: “When It Comes to Using Proxies, The US Far Surpasses Iran as a Sponsor of Terrorism” (Sonar21) Larry C. Johnson is a former CIA officer and intelligence analyst, and a former planner and advisor at the US State Department's Office of Counter Terrorism. Follow his analysis at Sonar21. Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show! For more on Scott’s work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott’s books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw Fool's Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0 Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott's full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods' Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com You can also support Scott's work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

The Strait of Hormuz is the kind of choke point people talk about in theory, right up until it closes and the whole global economy starts to feel it. We're joined by Ambassador Chas Freeman, a veteran American diplomat, to make sense of the US-Iran ceasefire drama and the bigger reality underneath it: Iran is not looking for a new ultimatum, and Washington is struggling to offer anything that resembles real negotiations. We dig into why “maximum pressure” often produces the opposite of its stated goals, including the risk that repeated attacks convince Tehran it needs a nuclear deterrent. We also break down the Strait of Hormuz blockade and why it can fail strategically and legally while still harming allies who rely on Gulf transit. Along the way, we talk oil price whiplash, credibility problems, and the downstream effects that show up weeks later in refineries, inflation, fertilizer, and gas at the pump. From East Asia blowback to the question of how a Trump-Xi summit would actually play out, the through line is simple: diplomacy is a craft, and the costs of amateur-hour statecraft land on everyone. If you care about US foreign policy, global energy security, and how wars end, this conversation is for you.

A single image can crack a political storyline wide open. We start with the viral clip of an Israeli soldier smashing a Jesus statue and follow the uncomfortable question it forces for many American Christians: what does “shared values” mean when Christians in Jerusalem report harassment and holy sites face restrictions? With Larry Johnson, we pull apart the gap between religious branding and real-world treatment, and why that gap is changing the tone of U.S. conservative support. Then the focus turns to the Israel Iran war and the American messaging machine around it. Trump says Israel didn't drive his decisions, ties escalation to October 7 anyway, and the public narrative gets messy fast. We also react to U.S. officials invoking biblical language to sell confrontation, and we ask what happens to faith when it's used as a political weapon instead of a moral brake. From there, we map the escalation timeline: a reported U.S. strike on an Iranian cargo ship, a tightening blockade, sanctions dropped midstream, and confusion around rumored talks in Pakistan as the ceasefire clock runs out. We also dig into the Lebanon front and why it complicates any U.S. Iran deal, before closing with the hard constraints many pundits skip: ground invasion realities, stockpile limits, nuclear-risk rhetoric, and Iran's hardened underground missile infrastructure that keeps its capability alive. If this conversation made you think, subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review. What's the most dangerous lie leaders tell themselves when they push a war?

We dive into the refutations by Saint Hilarion of socialism

The hits have just kept on coming! (And not in a good way.) For anyone who cares and/or is curious why CJ has been mostly incommunicado the past 2 months (other than angrily ranting against the insanity of current events on Twitter): In this special DHP episode he gives an update on the most recent trials & tribulations he & his family have been through, including (but not limited to) his wife being hospitalized twice, another major death in the family, & finally, CJ himself being hospitalized for almost a full week while being the sickest & in the worst pain he’s ever had in his entire life. (Fun times!) On the brighter side, the redemption in the third act is that CJ is still alive, still sober, & is (once again) getting back up to keep on fighting the good fight, so look for more Dangerous History coming your way as long as (knock on wood!) he can get a little bit of a respite from the near-constant dumpster-fires!

The headlines move fast, but the stakes underneath them move faster. When political leaders say the Strait of Hormuz is “open” and diplomacy is “wrapping up,” we slow the tape and ask the only question that matters: who actually has leverage right now, and what price is being paid off-camera? We're joined by Col. Lawrence Wilkerson to unpack Iran's position in the Strait of Hormuz, why transit fees and control of passage can matter more than press statements, and how “victory” framing can blur the reality of a stalemate. We also dig into a major geopolitical accelerant: China's growing role and the claim that Iran is receiving high-end satellite intelligence, a shift that could change deterrence, targeting, and escalation risk across the Middle East. From there, we follow the trail into US military posture and the fear that negotiations can become cover for war preparation, including the movement of major naval assets. Wilkerson raises deeper concerns about presidential decision making capacity, the limits of the 25th Amendment, and what happens when there are no effective guardrails in a national security crisis. We also examine Israel's influence over US policy, the credibility of competing narratives around Lebanon, and the worst-case scenario if wider targeting disrupts global commerce and pushes the world toward recession, depression, or even nuclear brinkmanship. Finally, we turn inward to civil-military relations, including the controversy around Pentagon prayer meetings, coercion concerns, and how culture inside the armed forces can shape compliance in a constitutional crisis. If you care about US foreign policy, the Iran Israel conflict, Middle East security, and the real mechanics of power, listen through to the end, then subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review so more people can find the conversation.

A ceasefire can be the start of peace, or it can be the quiet moment when both sides reload. That's the question driving my return conversation with Professor Glenn Diesen as we dissect the US-Iran negotiations, the sudden focus on a short extension, and the strategic shockwave created when Iran seizes leverage around the Strait of Hormuz. We dig into why force movements matter more than press releases, from carrier deployments to the logic of “locked and loaded” threats against dual-use infrastructure. Glenn explains why a temporary truce may simply create the breathing room needed to regroup, rearm, and restart the war under better conditions, and why regime change goals make durable agreements unlikely. We also talk Lebanon and Hezbollah, and why ceasefire announcements can unravel fast when strikes continue and outside powers push internal political pressure campaigns. Then we widen the lens: a US blockade of Iranian ports doesn't just hit Tehran, it collides with China's oil supply routes and raises serious legal and operational questions about boarding ships “regardless of nationality.” From there, we connect the Middle East war to NATO and the Russia-Ukraine war, including Europe's strained relationship with Trump, Ukraine's manpower crisis, talk of refugee returns, and how oil prices and weapon stockpiles are reshaping the battlefield. If you want clear geopolitical analysis on the US-Iran ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz strategy, Israel's influence, the Iran blockade, and the knock-on effects for Ukraine and NATO, listen now. Subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review, then tell me: do you think ceasefires still mean peace?

U.S. troops are training for chemical and nuclear fallout while fresh forces and warships surge toward the Middle East, and I can't shake the feeling that those “routine drills” are happening for a reason. We walk through what the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit's radiation preparedness could mean in the context of reports that the U.S. is weighing major escalation options against Iran, including strikes on critical infrastructure and the far more dangerous scenario: a special operation aimed at securing Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile. If that material has been moved, buried, or sits inside damaged tunnel networks, the operational risks get ugly fast. From there, we connect the dots between diplomacy headlines and the on-the-ground reality of military buildup. I lay out why previous negotiation windows seemed to buy time for positioning assets, not building trust, and how Trump's own public statements reveal confusion rather than a coherent strategy. We also dig into the Strait of Hormuz chatter and the China dimension, including why threatening Beijing while the U.S. burns through interceptors and depends on Chinese-controlled supply chains like rare earth minerals and gallium is a strategic gamble with real consequences. We then shift to Israel's posture, Netanyahu's messaging about influence in Washington, and the demand to remove enriched uranium as a public red line that could drag the U.S. deeper in. Finally, we break down why the Lebanon “talks” look like optics while pressure builds toward confrontation with Hezbollah, and why “grand bargain” negotiation tactics keep failing in real geopolitics. If you want a clear, unsentimental breakdown of U.S.-Iran tensions, Israel's war aims, and the risks around nuclear escalation and regional shipping chokepoints, hit play, subscribe, share the show, and leave a review with your take on what happens next.

A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sounds like a clean, decisive move until you run it through the real world: geography, international law, ship insurance, and the uncomfortable question of what happens when the other side shoots back. We sit down with Lt Col Karen Kwiatkowski to parse Trump's threat to interdict ships tied to Iranian oil and why “the greatest navy in the world” is not the same thing as a navy that can safely enforce a blockade in a narrow, heavily contested chokepoint. We dig into the operational side of maritime power, from US shipbuilding constraints to costly programs that never matched a realistic strategy. Karen explains why uncertainty is the real market killer: mines do not even have to be confirmed to spike insurance rates, freeze tanker traffic, and disrupt the global supply chain. We also ask what it means to stop third country vessels in international waters, and why targeting tankers linked to China, India, Pakistan, Japan, or South Korea could blow up relationships the US has spent decades trying to build across Asia. Then we widen the lens to diplomacy and messaging. We question why nuclear negotiations would be handled without deep technical expertise, how Israel's priorities shape US posture toward Iran, and why an EMP scare claim on cable news collapses under basic scrutiny of incentives, treaty history, and inspection records. We close with a blunt conversation about propaganda, legitimacy, and the strange politics of personality cult symbols, including Trump's AI “Jesus” image and what it signals about power at home and credibility abroad. If this conversation helps you think clearer, subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review so more people can find it.

John and I continue the reading and commentary on Rules for Radicals

My good friend Paisios Wainwright joins me to discuss his struggles and path to Orthodoxy. Wainwright Ceramics

 Download Audio. Scott interviews author and journalist Michele McPhee about the extensive research she's done on the Boston Marathon Bombing that happened exactly thirteen years ago this week. Scott and McPhee dig into the background of the Tsarnaev brothers, the holes in the story that they carried out the bombing entirely on their own, how the Russians warned the FBI about the brothers before the attack, the broader political and geopolitical context that the Tsarnaevs and the US and Russian governments were navigating at the time and much more. Discussed on the show: Maximum Harm: The Tsarnaev Brothers, the FBI, and the Road to the Marathon Bombing by Michele R. McPhee Mayhem: Unanswered Questions about the Tsarnaev Brothers, the US Government and the Boston Marathon Bombing by Michele R. McPhee The Internet’s Own Boy: The Story of Aaron Swartz (IMDb) The Terror Factory by Trevor Aaronson Michele R. McPhee is a screenwriter and best selling true crime author; five-time Emmy-nominated television investigative producer in Boston for ABC News; award-winning columnist; contributing editor to Newsweek and writer for Boston and LA Magazines. Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show! For more on Scott’s work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott’s books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw Fool's Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0 Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott's full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods' Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com You can also support Scott's work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

 Download Audio. Scott interviews Trita Parsi about the ceasefire and negotiations between the Trump administration and the Iranians. Parsi believes, while this was a strategic defeat for the US, the ceasefire has given Trump the opportunity to walk away with no deal and that that's likely what he'll end up doing. Scott and Parsi dig into the specifics and discuss the broader regional dynamic going forward concerning Iran's proxies and the Israelis. Discussed on the show: “How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran” (New York Times) Trita Parsi is the Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and the author of Losing an Enemy: Obama, Iran and the Triumph of Diplomacy. Parsi is the recipient of the 2010 Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. Follow him on Twitter @tparsi Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show! For more on Scott’s work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott’s books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw Fool's Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0 Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott's full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods' Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com You can also support Scott's work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

(*This is a reissue of a Dangerous History Episode first published in Aug. 2015) In this episode, CJ discusses two different paradigms of what war is supposed to be and how it is supposed to be fought.  One is the Western (or European) Way, which originated in Greece and from there filtered through the Romans to become the dominant paradigm among Westerners to this day. The other is the Eastern (or Asian) Way, which originated in China and from there filtered to other parts of the Asian world and beyond, and which forms the intellectual basis of much of modern unconventional tactics and strategy. Join CJ as he discusses: The origins of the Western Way and how it has evolved over the centuries The origins of the Eastern Way and how it has evolved over the centuries Why this matters to understanding the modern world in general, and the history of modern unconventional warfare in particular Like this episode? You can throw CJ a $ tip via Paypal here: https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=D6VUYSYQ4EU6L Throw CJ a $ tip via Venmo here: https://www.venmo.com/u/dangerousmedia Or throw CJ a BTC tip here: bc1qfrz9erz7dqazh9rhz3j7nv696nl52ux8unw79z Support the Dangerous History Podcast via Patreon Other ways to support the show (including CJ’s PO Box mailing address)

A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sounds like a clean, decisive move until you run it through the real world: geography, international law, ship insurance, and the uncomfortable question of what happens when the other side shoots back. We sit down with Lt Col Karen Kwiatkowski to parse Trump's threat to interdict ships tied to Iranian oil and why “the greatest navy in the world” is not the same thing as a navy that can safely enforce a blockade in a narrow, heavily contested chokepoint. We dig into the operational side of maritime power, from US shipbuilding constraints to costly programs that never matched a realistic strategy. Karen explains why uncertainty is the real market killer: mines do not even have to be confirmed to spike insurance rates, freeze tanker traffic, and disrupt the global supply chain. We also ask what it means to stop third country vessels in international waters, and why targeting tankers linked to China, India, Pakistan, Japan, or South Korea could blow up relationships the US has spent decades trying to build across Asia. Then we widen the lens to diplomacy and messaging. We question why nuclear negotiations would be handled without deep technical expertise, how Israel's priorities shape US posture toward Iran, and why an EMP scare claim on cable news collapses under basic scrutiny of incentives, treaty history, and inspection records. We close with a blunt conversation about propaganda, legitimacy, and the strange politics of personality cult symbols, including Trump's AI “Jesus” image and what it signals about power at home and credibility abroad. If this conversation helps you think clearer, subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review so more people can find it.

 Download Audio. Scott interviews Matt Wolfson about an article he recently wrote about the United Arab Emirates. Wolfson argues that the US and Israel have helped build up the UAE into a regional power with an increasingly interventionist foreign policy of its own. Discussed on the show: “The United Arab Emirates: America and Israel's Frankenstein Monster” (The Libertarian Institute) “In Strategic Shift, U.S. Draws Closer to Yemeni Rebels” (Wall Street Journal) “US maintains intelligence relationship with Houthis” (Al-Monitor) “U.S. intelligence report says key gulf ally meddled in American politics” (Washington Post) Matt Wolfson is an investigative journalist whose work has appeared in The American Conservative, The Epoch Times, Restoration of America News, and many others. Follow him on Twitter (X) @Oppo__Research and find his full body of work at his website. Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show! For more on Scott’s work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott’s books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw Fool's Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0 Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott's full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods' Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com You can also support Scott's work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

The fastest way to understand the Iran war scare isn't cable news hype, it's leverage. We sit down with Larry Johnson to map what Tehran is demanding, why Washington looks desperate for an exit plan, and how a single chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, can squeeze the global economy. If ships need to pay a steep user fee to move in and out of the Persian Gulf, the story instantly becomes bigger than battlefield headlines: it's oil prices, shipping risk, inflation pressure, and a potential global recession. We also pressure-test Trump's public posture that Iran “has no cards” against the hard constraints on escalation. We talk through why naval and ground options look limited, why crossing the nuclear line would be globally destabilizing, and how sanctions and frozen assets have become the real bargaining table. Larry lays out a plausible face-saving deal where sanctions are lifted, assets are released, and Iran returns to JCPOA-style enrichment limits and intrusive inspections, while still refusing to surrender its core rights. Then we widen the lens to the alliance and war system around it: NATO strain, Israel's growing political backlash, and what the Middle East focus means for Ukraine as Russia advances and Western air defense and missile inventories run thin. If you're searching for clear geopolitical analysis on Iran negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz, US foreign policy, NATO cohesion, and the future of Ukraine, this conversation connects the dots. Subscribe, share this with a friend who follows world affairs, and leave a review. What do you think is the most misunderstood piece of leverage right now?

“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool.” Richard P. Feynman *** “Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.” The Donald Rumsfeld matrix I examine the strategic deficit disorder that absolutely dominates the US and western military establishments I speak to the tools and critical thinking modalities that could spark and encourage competent martial imagination. Moral courage is necessary to tell the flag officer dullards and their Senior Executive Service (SES) necromancers that the emperor has no clothes. If not, the unblemished record of defeat and stalemate will continue. I describe some of the reasons I do it and the techniques I employ to get the single most accurate picture of what happened then to determine what's going on now. Recommended Listening: On Strategic Empathy Recommended Reading: Christian Madsbjerg Sensemaking: The Power of the Humanities in the Age of the Algorithm Johnson and Abbe Developing Strategic Empathy and Perspective Taking in Military Zachary Shore A Sense of the Enemy: The High Stakes History of Reading Your Rival’s Mind Dave Snowden Cynefin – Weaving Sense-Making into the Fabric of Our World Mortimer Adler How To Read a Book Robert Strassler The Landmark Xenophon’s Hellenika (Landmark Series) Mike Snook How Can Man Die Better: The Secrets of Isandlwana Revealed Mike Snook Like Wolves on the Fold: The Defence of Rorke's Drift David Stahel Operation Barbarossa and Germany’s Defeat in the East David Hackett Fischer Historians’ Fallacies : Toward a Logic of Historical Thought Keith Windschuttle The Killing of History John Burrow A History of Histories: Epics, Chronicles, and Inquiries from Herodotus and Thucydides to the Twentieth Century Harry Elmer Barnes A History of Historical Writing US Army Center of Military History My Substack Email at cgpodcast@pm.me

John and I continue to read and comment on Rules for Radicals

 Download Audio. Scott brought Robert Pape of the University of Chicago back to discuss the attempted ceasefire that went into effect on Wednesday night. Pape explains why this is not actually a meaningful step away from the escalation to a full-on war that he's long been warning about. He also talks about how this is war is cementing Iran's status as a world power and why he expects the Iranians to abandon their previous stance, begin earnestly pursuing nuclear weapons and attain them quickly. Discussed on the show: “The Pause That Isn't: Why the Iran Ceasefire Changes Everything” (The Escalation Trap) “The War Is Turning Iran Into a Major World Power” (The New York Times) Robert A. Pape is Professor of Political Science and Director of the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats and the author of Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War. Follow him on Twitter @ProfessorPape Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show! For more on Scott’s work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott’s books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw Fool's Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0 Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott's full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods' Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com You can also support Scott's work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

“We're winning” is easy to post. It's much harder to define when the missiles keep flying, the Strait of Hormuz becomes a choke point, and the only clear destination seems to be a negotiation table. We sit down with Chief Fritz, a former Command Chief Master Sergeant, to pressure test the confidence, separate opinion from fact, and ask the uncomfortable question: if the U.S. is dominating Iran, why does the strategy feel so improvised? We talk through the military reality behind an air campaign, including readiness, munitions, interceptors, and what an attrition war looks like when Iran can still strike bases and allies across the region. Chief Fritz draws direct parallels to the Iraq War playbook, arguing that shifting rationales and inexperienced leadership can push the country into a conflict without a clear end state. We also explore escalation risks, including whether nuclear weapons are a real fear, and why Iran's ballistic missile program functions as a central deterrent. Then we go where most coverage avoids: who benefits, who pays, and who bleeds. We discuss claims that the war is being waged primarily on behalf of Israel, the role of lobbying and Pentagon influence, and what it means for enlisted men and women who may be ordered into harm's way. If you care about U.S. foreign policy, the Iran war, Israel-Gaza spillover risks, oil prices, and the lessons of Iraq, this is a necessary listen. Subscribe, share with a friend, and leave a review with your biggest takeaway.

Iran isn't just trading blows with the US and Israel. According to our guest, the fight is turning fixed American advantages like bases, radars, and regional headquarters into fragile targets, forcing withdrawals and relocations across the Middle East. We walk through what it means when places like Al-Udeid, Bahrain's Fifth Fleet footprint, and multiple high-end radar sites take hits and why “no massive casualties” does not automatically mean “no massive damage.” From there, we connect the battlefield to the economy. Oil and LNG infrastructure disruption is framed as the kind of shock that can ripple into global inflation, shipping risk, and political pressure at home, especially with the Strait of Hormuz looming over everything. We also unpack Trump's public threats and sudden delays, asking whether the messaging is about real negotiations or simply buying time for major reinforcements like a Marine Expeditionary Unit to get into position. Then we get brutally practical about military feasibility. Could the US actually seize Karg Island or “open” the Strait of Hormuz with limited forces? We pressure-test WWII analogies, talk terrain and coastal defenses, and look at why mines, drones, fast-attack craft, and underwater threats make “quick fixes” unlikely. Finally, we dig into troop morale, the aircraft carrier fire controversy, and the harder constraint that rarely makes headlines: interceptor depletion, missile production limits, and rare earth mineral supply chain problems. If you care about the Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz, US military readiness, oil prices, and what escalation looks like when logistics are strained, this conversation is for you. Subscribe, share this with a friend who follows geopolitics, and leave a review with your take: do you think this ends with de-escalation or a wider regional war?

Things are getting weirder. Vital Dissent website Join my email list and become a premium member: http://www.vitaldissent.club Vital Dissent Merch 10% off with code VD10 Show notes:  Terence McKenna ‘s Final Interview http://www.vitaldissent.com/email

John and I continue to read and comment on Rules for Radicals