Podcast appearances and mentions of Carmen Reinhart

For the past 80 years, the US dollar has held the status of the world's primary reserve currency. However, following President Trump and his administration's policies, this status currently looks at risk. In his address to the IIEA, Professor Kenneth Rogoff discusses his new book Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider's View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead. Professor Rogoff illustrates how the US Dollar reached its current status as the world's primary reserve currency. He also discusses the challenges it faces from the likes of crypto and the Chinese yuan. Professor Rogoff also considers how the current US Administration's policies will impact the dollar's role in the world economy. About the Speaker: Kenneth Rogoff is Maurits C. Boas Professor at Harvard University and former chief economist at the IMF. His influential 2009 book with Carmen Reinhart, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, shows the remarkable quantitative similarities across time and countries in the roots and aftermath of debt and financial crises. Professor Rogoff is also known for his pioneering work on central bank independence and exchange rates. His monthly syndicated column on global economic issues is published in over 50 countries. His 2025 book, Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider's View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance explores the post-war rise of the dollar, the challenges ahead from crypto and the Chinese yuan, and argues that the period of reliably low interest rates, inflation, and exchange rate volatility has likely come to an end.

Jon Hartley and Kenneth Rogoff discuss Ken's career as an academic economist, his time in international economic policy, rising sovereign debt burdens, monetary policy, the legacy of quantitative easing, exchange rate theories, tariffs, and the US dollar's status as the world reserve currency. Recorded on May 12, 2025. ABOUT THE SPEAKERS: Kenneth Rogoff is Thomas D. Cabot Professor at Harvard University. From 2001-2003, Rogoff served as Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund. His 2009 book with Carmen Reinhart, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, has been very widely cited by academics, policymakers, and journalists. One regularity that Reinhart and Rogoff illustrate is the remarkable quantitative similarities across time and countries in the run-up and the aftermath of severe financial crises. In general, they show that for financial crises, the differences between emerging markets and advanced countries are far less pronounced than previously believed. Rogoff is also known for his seminal work on exchange rates and on central bank independence. His treatise, Foundations of International Macroeconomics (joint with Maurice Obstfeld), is the standard graduate text in the field worldwide. His monthly syndicated column on global economic issues is published in over 50 countries. He serves on the Economic Advisory Panel of the New York Federal Reserve. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Rogoff is an elected member of the National Academy of Sciences, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the Group of Thirty. Rogoff is among the top ten on RePEc's ranking of economists by scholarly citations. He is also an international grandmaster of chess. Jon Hartley is currently a Policy Fellow at the Hoover Institution, an economics PhD Candidate at Stanford University, a Research Fellow at the UT-Austin Civitas Institute, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity (FREOPP), a Senior Fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, and an Affiliated Scholar at the Mercatus Center. Jon is also the host of the Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century Podcast, an official podcast of the Hoover Institution, a member of the Canadian Group of Economists, and the chair of the Economic Club of Miami. Jon has previously worked at Goldman Sachs Asset Management as a Fixed Income Portfolio Construction and Risk Management Associate and as a Quantitative Investment Strategies Client Portfolio Management Senior Analyst and in various policy/governmental roles at the World Bank, IMF, Committee on Capital Markets Regulation, U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and the Bank of Canada.  Jon has also been a regular economics contributor for National Review Online, Forbes, and The Huffington Post and has contributed to The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, USA Today, Globe and Mail, National Post, and Toronto Star, among other outlets. Jon has also appeared on CNBC, Fox Business, Fox News, Bloomberg, and NBC and was named to the 2017 Forbes 30 Under 30 Law & Policy list, the 2017 Wharton 40 Under 40 list, and was previously a World Economic Forum Global Shaper.  ABOUT THE SERIES: Each episode of Capitalism and Freedom in the 21st Century, a video podcast series and the official podcast of the Hoover Economic Policy Working Group, focuses on getting into the weeds of economics, finance, and public policy on important current topics through one-on-one interviews. Host Jon Hartley asks guests about their main ideas and contributions to academic research and policy. The podcast is titled after Milton Friedman‘s famous 1962 bestselling book Capitalism and Freedom, which after 60 years, remains prescient from its focus on various topics which are now at the forefront of economic debates, such as monetary policy and inflation, fiscal policy, occupational licensing, education vouchers, income share agreements, the distribution of income, and negative income taxes, among many other topics. For more information, visit: capitalismandfreedom.substack.com/

“Los primeros textos escritos de los que se tiene constancia son apuntes contables. Los primeros textos de la humanidad son sobre algo tan prosaico como una lista de ganado y de equipamiento agrícola encontrado en la ciudad de Uruk. Recogían las deudas de personas con otras personas y de personas con el complejo del templo. La escritura tardaría más de mil años en utilizarse para la narrativa.” Daniel acaba de publicar un libro sobre la historia del dinero y su fantástico vínculo con la escritura.Kapital es posible gracias a sus colaboradores:⁠Indexa Capital⁠. Gestión pasiva en fondos indexados.No es fácil encontrar un lugar seguro para tu dinero. En un mercado lleno de productos tramposos, me gusta colaborar o poner el micro a los pocos gestores, pasivos o activos, con una propuesta honesta. La fortaleza de Indexa Capital, que entraría dentro de la gestión pasiva, es una cartera de bajo coste y diversificada. Dos de sus fundadores, Unai y François, han pasado por el podcast. Si te interesa, aquí tienes mi enlace de registro para ahorrarte la comisión sobre los primeros 15.000 euros. Son tiempos inciertos en los mercados y esto significa que debes buscar opciones serias para tu dinero. Indexa Capital es sin duda una de ellas.Patrocina Kapital. Toda la información en este link.Índice:1:30 No hemos conocido dinero sano.19:46 Edificios feos en monedas débiles.32:29 La edad de oro de la seguridad.42:21 Los mercados no atacan, se defienden.59:41 El origen del dinero es el origen de la escritura.1:09:59 Número de Dunbar.1:20:00 El palacio fagocita al templo.1:31:02 Planes de guerra de Gilgamesh.1:37:22 Operación Bernhard.1:53:13 El dinero según William Stanley Jevons.2:02:01 Las piedras Rai.2:04:41 Expropiaciones de reyes ingleses.2:24:41 Esté preparado cuando vengan a por ti.2:31:03 De la bulla al bitcoin.Apuntes:Dinero: Un viaje desde Mesopotamia hasta el Bitcoin. Daniel Fernández.Epopeya de Gilgamesh. Andrew George.This time is different. Carmen Reinhart & Kenneth Rogoff.El mundo de ayer. Stefan Zweig.El patrón bitcoin. Saifedean Ammous.Antifrágil. Nassim Nicholas Taleb.La teoría de la economía política. William Stanley Jevons.

Kenneth Rogoff is Maurits C. Boas Professor at Harvard University, and former chief economist at the IMF. He has long ranked among the top dozen most cited economists and is an international grandmaster of chess. His influential 2009 book with Carmen Reinhart, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, shows the remarkable quantitative similarities across time and countries in the roots and aftermath of debt and financial crises. Rogoff is also known for his pioneering work on central bank independence, and on exchange rates. He is co-author of the widely used graduate text, Foundations of International Macroeconomics. Ken's latest book is Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider's View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance and the Road Ahead. In this podcast we discuss Rogoff's early life and background as a chess prodigy, Yale, MIT and mentors like Rudy Dornbusch and Stan Fischer, Rogoff's groundbreaking paper on central bank independence, and much more.    Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive

Kenneth Rogoff is Maurits C. Boas Professor at Harvard University, and former chief economist at the IMF. His influential 2009 book with Carmen Reinhart, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, shows the remarkable quantitative similarities across time and countries in the roots and aftermath of debt and financial crises. Rogoff is also known for his pioneering work on central bank independence, and on exchange rates. He is co-author of the widely-used graduate text, Foundations of International Macroeconomics. His 2016 book The Curse of Cash looks at the past, present and future of currency from standardized coinage to crypto-currencies. His monthly syndicated column on global economic issues is published in over 50 countries. Rogoff's 2025 book Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider's View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance and the Road Ahead offers a sweeping view of the post-war rise of the dollar, the challenges the rest of the world has in dealing with it, and how this experience can help inform the contours of the evolving new global financial system. Rogoff is an elected member of the National Academy of Sciences and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He has long ranked among the top dozen most cited economists, and is an international grandmaster of chess.Leoš Rousek, the Head Of Corporate Communications at PPF Group (https://www.ppf.eu/en) and contributor of PFI Talks, talked with Kenneth Rogoff.

On today's episode, Clay discusses various financial crises from the past as discussed in the book This Time is Different by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. As the saying goes, from a historical perspective, there is nothing new except what is forgotten. Today's episode will help shed light on where our world might be heading in light of studying history. IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 06:48 - The primary types of financial crises. 08:13 - When the debt levels of a country reach an unsustainable level. 27:00 - An overview of currency debasements and currency devaluations 27:24 - How countries tend to handle unsustainable debt levels 30:36 - An overview of the Great Financial Crisis. 47:32 - How the interests of governments and currency holders are at odds with each other. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Books mentioned: This Time is Different, Broken Money, The Price of Tomorrow Episode Mentioned: TIP587: Stock Market Crises & Bubbles w/ Brendan Hughes | YouTube Video. Related Episode: TIP574: Broken Money w/ Lyn Alden | YouTube Video. Follow Clay on Twitter.  Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Toyota CI Financial Meyka Fundrise Yahoo! Finance Long Angle iFlex Stretch Studios Public American Express Shopify HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Kenneth Rogoff is Maurits C. Boas Professor at Harvard University and former chief economist at the IMF. His influential 2009 book co-authored with Carmen Reinhart, “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,” shows the quantitative similarities across time and countries in the roots and aftermath of debt and financial crises. His 2016 book “The Curse of Cash” explores the past, present, and future of currency. He has long ranked among the top dozen most cited economists, and is an international grandmaster of chess.

China has significantly expanded its bailout lending as its Belt and Road Initiative blows up following a series of debt write-offs, scandal-ridden projects and allegations of corruption according to a new paper "China as an International Lender of Last Resort" by Sebastian Horn of the World Bank; Brad Parks, a research professor at William & Mary University; Harvard's Carmen Reinhart; and Christoph Trebesch, a director at the Kiel Institute. The researchers found 128 bailout loans worth $240 billion dollars to 20 countries between 2000 and 2021. The vast majority were extended over the last five years, and almost half happened in 2019-2021. Moreover, the researchers found that People's Bank of China swap lines are far more meaningful than direct loans.Here is a link to the paper:  https://tinyurl.com/36pp5569Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoylePatrick Boyle YouTube Channel Support the show

In this episode, we continue our focus on Pakistan's economic crisis and discuss the way out of it with Dr. Ahmed Pirzada. Dr. Ahmed Pirzada is an Assistant Professor at the University of Bristol, UK. He is also a Fellow of the Higher Education Academy, UK, and the Chair of the independent Economic Advisory Group (EAG), Pakistan. He specialises in macroeconomics with a focus in monetary policy, and the conversation dives a bit deeper into what he sees as the main drivers of the crisis, the way out of it, and why debt restructuring may be a decent option. You should read the EAG's latest press release on this at this link: https://eag.org.pk/eag-advises-debt-restructuring-and-warns-against-import-substitution-policies/ Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:20 What caused this crisis? 19:37 What decisions exacerbated the crisis recently? 28:30 Distorted exchange rate 35:21 Debt restructuring need 45:30 Painful adjustments in the economy 51:11 Reading recommendations Reading Recommendations: - This time is different by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff - Quantum Enigma by Bruce Rosenblum and Fred Kuttner - The history of western philosophy by Bertrand Russell

Ethan Ilzetzki is an associate professor of economics at the London School of Economics and a research fellow with the Center for Economic Policy Research. Ethan is also a returning guest to the show, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about the international implications of Fed Policy and the strong dollars as well as Ethan's thoughts on business cycle theory in light of the recent inflation surge. David and Ethan also discuss Ethan's takeaways from the UK crisis, how to evaluate and contextualize monetary policy shocks, the contemporary applications of the fiscal theory of the price level, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Check out our new Macro Musings merch here, and use the promo code NGDP for 10% off!   Ethan's Twitter: @ilzetzki Ethan's website Ethan's LSE profile   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *UK Financial Crisis of 2022: Retrospective Diagnosis and Policy Recommendations* by Ethan Ilzetzki   *Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?* by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff   *Inflation as a Fiscal Limit* by Francesco Bianchi and Leonardo Melosi   *The Global Financial Cycle* by Helene Rey and Silvia Miranda-Agrippino

Die Inflation in den USA scheint nicht in den Griff zu bekommen. Ungeachtet der Zinserhöhungen lag die Teuerungsrate im Juni bei 9,1 Prozent und damit höher als erwartet. Vor diesem Hintergrund ein Überblick über die größten Treiber der Inflation. Außerdem die wichtigsten Punkte aus dem Beige Book, dem Konjunkturbericht der US-Notenbank, der am Abend veröffentlicht worden ist.Ein weiteres Thema sind die Emerging Markets. Nach dem Umsturz in Sri Lanka stellt sich die Frage, welche anderen Schwellenländer in eine ähnliche Krise stürzen könnten. Dazu Einschätzungen von Carmen Reinhart. Die Wirtschaftswissenschaftlerin ist Vizepräsidentin und Chefökonomin der Weltbank.Anschließend geht es zu Bosch. Der deutsche Technologie- und Elektronikkonzern investiert Milliarden in die Halbleiter-Fertigung und überdurchschnittlich viel Geld in Forschung und Entwicklung. Die “Aktie des Tages” ist die des Luftfahrtunternehmens MTU Aero Engines. Das Unternehmen mit Sitz in München könnte vom schwachen Euro profitieren. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Au Sri Lanka, le président a promis de démissionner ce week-end sur fond de grave crise économique et sociale. D'autres pays émergents vont-ils connaître un sort comparable dans les prochains mois ? Le Sri Lanka a été le premier pays à faire défaut cette année, au mois d'avril. Depuis, les experts les plus alarmistes mettent en garde contre les risques de faillite en cascade. Selon l'économiste en chef de la Banque mondiale, Carmen Reinhart, cette perspective ne relève plus de l'hypothèse, c'est déjà une réalité. Pour tenter d'éviter le défaut et pour trouver de l'argent frais, plusieurs pays ont fait appel au FMI. C'est le cas du Ghana, de la Tunisie, du Pakistan, trois des pays les plus à risque identifiés par l'agence Bloomberg. Le Salvador et l'Égypte complètent cette liste des plus vulnérables. L'agence d'information économique estime que dix-neuf pays sont aujourd'hui au bord de l'effondrement. Leur nombre a doublé en six mois. Cela concerne 900 millions de personnes. Ces pays partagent-ils des traits communs avec le Sri Lanka ? Ce sont les coupures de courant à répétition qui ont plongé l'archipel de l'océan Indien dans une crise profonde. Les racines du mal sont d'abord liées à la pandémie qui a provoqué la chute des recettes touristiques. Et à la mauvaise gouvernance du clan au pouvoir. Mais c'est bien le contexte économique mondial actuel qui a accéléré la descente aux enfers. L'inflation, aujourd'hui à 50%, a fait grimper la facture énergétique. Faute de réserves de change suffisantes, le Sri Lanka s'est retrouvé dans l'incapacité d'importer suffisamment de pétrole pour faire tourner les centrales électriques et dans l'impossibilité de rembourser sa dette. L'impact du Covid, le poids de la dette et cette difficulté à importer les matières premières essentielles faute de devises, c'est un schéma qu'on retrouve plus ou moins dans les autres pays cités. Faut-il craindre un effet domino comme il y a eu par le passé en Asie ou en Amérique latine ? La situation actuelle est en partie comparable à la crise de la dette qui a laminé l'Amérique latine dans les années 1980. Comme aujourd'hui, la Réserve fédérale avait brusquement relevé ses taux d'intérêt pour combattre l'inflation, ce qui avait fragilisé ces pays émergents. Le Mexique fait alors défaut, entraînant dans sa chute les autres pays de la région. Mais depuis, les pays en développement ont fait un bond de géant. Il y a certes aujourd'hui des maillons faibles, mais les grands émergents, de l'Inde au Brésil en passant par le Mexique ou la Thaïlande, sont actuellement beaucoup plus résilients. Ils ont des réserves de change confortables et une balance des paiements beaucoup plus équilibrée qu'il y a quarante ans. Depuis le début de l'année, les capitaux refluent en masse des pays émergents Cinquante milliards de dollars seraient sortis de ces pays depuis le début de l'année, un reflux historique, du jamais vu depuis dix-sept ans. Mais dans les pays les plus solides, on voit aussi que les investisseurs locaux ont parfois pris le relais à la Bourse, qu'ils sont devenus les premiers investisseurs, c'est le cas notamment en Thaïlande ou au Mexique. La crise actuelle reste concentrée dans les pays les plus fragiles, où le pouvoir politique est faible et contesté. Elle n'est pas de nature à se propager au reste du monde. En revanche, elle sera sévère pour les populations concernées, menacées par la crise alimentaire et sociale. Elles pourraient endurer des difficultés comparables à celles qu'éprouvent les habitants en état d'hyper inflation chronique comme le Zimbabwe, le Soudan, le Liban, la Syrie ou le Venezuela, des pays où l'inflation a largement dépassé les 100%, voire les 200%.

Michael Dooley is a chief economist for Figure Technologies and a 20-year veteran of the Federal Reserve System and the IMF. Michael is also a professor emeritus in the department of economics at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and he joins Macro Musings to talk about the international monetary system and the future of the dollar. Specifically, David and Michael also discuss the original and revised Bretton Woods systems, the Fed's role as a monetary superpower, and what this means for the US as a provider of safe and unsafe assets.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Michael's UC Santa Cruz profile Michael's NBER archive   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox!   Related Links:   *US Sanctions Reinforce the Dollar's Dominance* by Michael Dooley, David Folkerts-Landau, and Peter Garber   *Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?* by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff   *Dilemma Not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence* by Helene Rey   *The Global Financial Cycle* by Helene Rey and Silvia Miranda-Agrippino

Đại dịch Covid-19 và chiến tranh Ukraina đã khiến thương mại thế giới bị ảnh hưởng nghiêm trọng. Nếu như từ đầu những năm 2000, phi toàn cầu hoá được xem là một giả thuyết, thì đến nay dường như xu hướng này đang diễn ra với tốc độ nhanh chóng. Phải chăng toàn cầu hoá đã chấm dứt, nhường chỗ cho một xu hướng phát triển mới về kinh tế và cả về chính trị ?   Thuật ngữ phi toàn cầu hoá được cho là xuất hiện từ thế đầu thế kỷ XXI, do nhà xã hội học Philippines Walden Bello đưa ra, trong cuốn sách “Deglobalization, ideas for a New World Economy” (Phi toàn cầu hoá, những ý tưởng cho một nền kinh tế thế giới mới). Theo ông Bello, phi toàn cầu hoá không phải là một bước lùi và cũng không đặt dấu chấm hết cho thương mại quốc tế, mà chỉ là tìm cách rút ngắn các chu trình sản xuất. Xu hướng này xuất phát từ những bất cập và thiếu quy định rõ ràng, dẫn đến việc mất kiểm soát thị trường, đặc biệt là ở những nước mới trỗi dậy. Phi toàn cầu hoá tố cáo quyền lực, chỉ trích của các tổ chức quốc tế như Quỹ Tiền Tệ Quốc Tế (IMF) hay Tổ Chức Kinh Tế Thế Giới (WTO). Tại Pháp, khái niệm phi toàn cầu hoá xuất hiện vào năm 2011 trong các bài phát biểu của chính trị gia Arnault Montebourg và sau đó được nhà kinh tế Jacques Sapir phát triển trong cuốn sách“Démondialisation” ( Phi toàn cầu hóa ) xuất bản cùng năm. Vào thời điểm đó, phi toàn cầu hoá được xem là một giả thuyết. Thế nhưng, trong những năm gần đây, vụ tắc nghẽn ở kênh đào Suez, việc các nước đóng cửa biên giới vì đại dịch và cuộc chiến tranh ở Ukraina, đã làm gián đoạn các chuỗi cung ứng quan trọng của thế giới, hạn chế dòng chảy của các mặt hàng thiết yếu như vi mạch điện tử, khí đốt và thực phẩm, ảnh hưởng nghiêm trọng đến giao thương quốc tế. Các nước tích cực tham gia, thậm chí là phụ thuộc vào thị trường thế giới, trở thành những nước dễ bị tổn thương nhất. Dường như đó là những lời cảnh tỉnh về những tác động của toàn cầu hoá từ 40 năm qua. Theo nhà kinh tế học Jacques Sapirs, ngay từ những năm 2000, các tác động tiêu cực của toàn cầu hoá đã vượt hơn những lợi ích mà xu thế này mang lại. Vậy phi toàn cầu hoá là gì ? Khái niệm này đã thay đổi từ nhiều năm qua. Trong bối cảnh hiện nay, có thể hiểu đó là chủ nghĩa bảo hộ, là việc đưa ra mức thuế quan cao hơn để tính đến chi phí môi trường và xã hội của hàng hoá, giảm vận chuyển hàng hoá ở khoảng cách xa, thúc đẩy sản xuất tại địa phương, áp dụng lại các biện pháp kiểm soát vốn nhằm giảm ảnh hưởng của tài chính đối với nền kinh tế toàn cầu… Về chủ đề này, RFI Tiếng Việt trao đổi với nhà kinh tế học Jacques Sapir, giám đốc nghiên cứu tại trường l'École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS). RFI : Phi toàn cầu hoá xuất hiện từ bao giờ ? Jacques Sapir : Phó chủ tịch Ngân Hàng Thế Giới, kinh tế gia Carmen Reinhart vào năm 2021 từng nói rằng khủng hoảng Covid-19 là chiếc đinh cuối cùng đóng vào “cỗ quan tài” toàn cầu hoá. Vậy nếu đại dịch Covid-19 là sự kiện cuối cùng thì đâu là sự kiện đầu tiên đánh dấu sự tàn lụi của toàn cầu hoá ? Theo tôi đó là một chuỗi các sự kiện, bắt đầu từ cuộc khủng hoảng kinh tế năm 2008. Tiếp theo đó là hàng hoạt các chính sách, chiến lược của một số quốc gia, bắt đầu đưa ra lập trường “chống toàn cầu hoá”, không hoàn toàn chấm dứt giao thương quốc tế, mà là dần dần rút khỏi một thị trường toàn cầu khổng lồ, thay vào đó là đi tìm kiếm các thoả thuận riêng. Chúng ta đã chứng kiến những gì mà cựu tổng thống Mỹ Donald Trump làm. Đó là việc quay trở lại với chủ nghĩa bảo hộ. Hay cuộc trưng cầu dân ý của Vương Quốc Anh về việc ra khỏi Liên Hiệp Châu Âu và cách thức mà chính phủ của Boris Johnson rời khỏi khối này. Thêm vào đó là các hiện tượng khác thiên về kinh tế hơn: các quốc gia tìm cách giảm phụ thuộc và xây dựng tính tự chủ, dần thoát khỏi ràng buộc với thị trường quốc tế. Trong bối cảnh này, đại dịch Covid-19 bùng nổ. Chính đại dịch đã cảnh tỉnh thế giới, khiến giới chính trị nhận thức được rằng mối quan hệ phụ thuộc lẫn nhau của các quốc gia - được phát triển trong giai đoạn toàn cầu hoá, có nhiều bất cập và điểm yếu. Và cuộc khủng hoảng Ukraina chỉ làm trầm trọng hơn và làm quá trình phi toàn cầu hoá diễn ra nhanh hơn. RFI: Vậy theo ông, điều gì sẽ xảy ra khi quá trình phi toàn cầu hoá được đẩy nhanh hơn bởi cuộc chiến ở Ukraina? Thế giới sẽ phát triển theo hướng nào ? Jacques Sapir : Cuộc khủng hoảng địa chính trị ở châu Âu mà chúng ta đang trải qua hiện nay để lại nhiều hậu quả, không chỉ là những vấn về liên quan đến kinh tế quốc tế. Những gì mà chúng ta có thể thấy rõ ràng đó là, nếu muốn duy trì một thế giới, mà ở đó các quốc gia phụ thuộc chặt chẽ vào nhau. Trong trường hợp này, không thể loại bỏ một quốc gia - nhà xuất khẩu lớn về nguyên liệu thô như Nga. Thế giới sẽ phân khúc theo nhóm các nước hợp tác riêng với nhau. Đó là việc quay trở lại giao thương theo các khối. Xu hướng này được tạo ra bởi các lệnh trừng phạt kinh tế hơn là bởi các quyết định chính trị. Tôi cho rằng sự năng động của các khối này có thể trở thành xu hướng phát triển của thế giới trong những năm tới, tức là một thế giới đa cực. Nếu như vào những năm 1990-2000, giai đoạn “thăng hoa” của toàn cầu hoá, quyền lực của các quốc gia suy giảm và chuyển vào các định chế quốc tế như Liên Hiệp Quốc, hay Liên Hiệp Châu Âu ở châu Âu, thì hiện nay, với đại dịch Covid-19 và khủng hoảng Ukraina, chúng ta có thể thấy một xu hướng đang trỗi dậy đó là Nhà nước pháp quyền. Theo tôi, điều này hoàn toàn căn bản. Quyền lực quay trở lại vào tay của mỗi Nhà nước, các nhân vật trung tâm chủ chốt của nền kinh tế và chính trị quốc tế. Thế giới có thể sẽ chuyển sang một hệ thống liên minh và chiến lược. Chúng ta có thể thấy sự trở lại của các kết nối giữa các quốc gia qua các hiệp ước, thoả thuận song phương, đa phương. Tức là các quốc gia hợp tác với nhau và không bị áp đặt bởi các quy định quốc tế. Ví dụ như là sự hùng mạnh của Liên Minh Bắc Đại Tây Dương. NATO không phải là một tổ chức đa quốc gia có cơ cấu hành chính vượt ra ngoài ranh giới mỗi quốc gia, mà là một tổ chức có tư cách pháp lý quốc tế riêng. RFI : Vậy phải chăng toàn cầu hoá đã đi đến hồi kết? Như vậy thì kinh tế quốc tế sẽ bị ảnh hưởng ra sao ? Jacques Sapir : Theo tôi, khái niệm toàn cầu hoá đang chết dần chết mòn, nhưng cần phải lưu ý, toàn cầu hoá kết thúc không có nghĩa là giao thương quốc tế chấm dứt. Lịch sử cho thấy ngay cả trong những giai đoạn cực kỳ bảo thủ, thương mại quốc tế vẫn phát triển. Các quốc gia đóng cửa, “tự vệ”, nhưng không có nghĩa là ngừng giao thương với các nước khác. Bảo hộ mậu dịch không ngăn chặn sự phát triển của xu hướng tự cung tự cấp. Nhưng không phải tự dưng mà có hai khái niệm khác nhau, mô tả hai tình huống khác nhau. Chủ nghĩa bảo hộ đó có nghĩa là một đất nước tự bảo vệ mình, nhưng vẫn tiếp tục giao thương với láng giềng, trong khi một nước tự cung tự cấp hoàn toàn trên thực tế chưa bao giờ tồn tại. Theo tôi, chủ nghĩa bảo hộ đang phát triển mạnh hơn nhiều và có vẻ như không hẳn gây ra trở ngại ở một mức độ nào đó đối với thương mại quốc tế. Ví dụ, vào năm 1914, thế giới bị bao trùm bởi chủ nghĩa bảo hộ. Thế nhưng, trên thực tế, Đức và Pháp là hai khách hàng lớn nhất của nhau. Điều này không hề ngăn chặn cuộc chiến 1914 - 1918.Nhưng đây là một vấn đề khác. Theo tôi, chúng ta đang quay trở lại chủ nghĩa bảo hộ, mà ở đó các chuỗi cung ứng đa quốc gia đã tồn tại. Tức là một sản phẩm nào đó được sản xuất ở một nước nào đó khác, nhưng có thể những kết cấu/thành phần của sản phẩm được gia công hay lắp ráp ở một nước thứ ba, thậm chí là nước thứ tư. Tôi cho rằng chúng ta sẽ quay trở lại thời kỳ mà các sản phẩm được sản xuất tại địa phương, theo cơ cấu sản xuất của mỗi quốc gia. Dĩ nhiên, các nền kinh tế vẫn phải phụ thuộc vào nguồn nguyên liệu thô, nhưng rất có thể sẽ tìm cách tự sản xuất một phần nguyên liệu phải nhập khẩu. Chúng ta có thể thấy một hình thức hỗn hợp trong việc làm ra một sản phẩm, tức là một phần nào đó của sản phẩm được sản xuất ra trong nước, còn phần khác thì được nhập khẩu từ các nước khác - giữa những nước có quan hệ hợp tác với nhau. RFI: Vậy với xu hướng phi toàn cầu hóa, một tổ chức như Liên Hiệp Châu Âu liệu có thể sống sót? Jacques Sapir : Theo tôi Liên Âu có thể tồn tại nếu hiểu được tầm quan trọng của sự đa dạng trong khối, và theo hướng này, thay vì đi tìm một mô hình kiểu mẫu để áp dụng đối với toàn bộ các nước thành viên, thì nên chia sẻ một số giá trị chung, những nguyên tắc và lợi ích mà không thể chia sẻ với bất cứ quốc gia nào khác. Nước nào cũng có những ưu tiên riêng và vạch ra hướng phát triển riêng. Ví dụ như về chính sách môi trường, Pháp và Đức có nhiều điểm khác biệt. Cả hai quốc gia đều có chính sách chuyển đổi năng lượng. Tuy nhiên, Đức từ chối phát triển năng lượng hạt nhân bất chấp việc gia tăng nhu cầu về năng lượng hoá thạch để sản xuất điện, từ than đá nhập khẩu của Ba Lan hay khí đốt của Nga. Trong khi đó Pháp lại hướng đến tự chủ năng lượng quốc gia và phát triển năng lượng hạt nhân. Đó là hai chiến lược khác nhau, và tôi cho rằng không cần thiết phải cố gắng hài hoà điều này.

Alors que les plus riches des patrons de ce monde sont de retour au Forum de Davos en Suisse, plusieurs études récentes pointent le retour des défaillances d'entreprises à l'échelle mondiale. Après deux ans de soutien des Etats dans le cadre de la crise sanitaire, les perturbations liées à la guerre en Ukraine et la fin des politiques accommodantes des banques centrales mettent leurs trésoreries sous pression : le groupe Allianz Trade estime que le nombre d'entreprises qui ne peuvent plus rembourser leurs créances va augmenter cette année. Après deux années stables, et même en 2021 un niveau bas record pour les défaillances constatées, le leader de l'assurance-crédit évalue la hausse à 10% pour 2022. La tendance commence donc à s'inverser. Bien sûr, cela est à mettre au compte des difficultés qui s'accumulent au niveau mondial. L'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie a aggravé la hausse des prix, ceux des énergies en particulier. Quant aux perturbations qui affectent les chaînes d'approvisionnements, les pénuries d'intrants et de main d'œuvre, elles continuent de sévir. Alors que désormais, la hausse des taux directeurs de plusieurs banques centrales va forcément aggraver les conditions de refinancement de ces entreprises. Cela annonce selon Allianz Trade, le retour dès cette année, des niveaux de défaillances d'avant crise pour un tiers des 44 pays scrutés dans l'étude. En Europe et aux Etats-Unis, les entreprises massivement soutenus par les gouvernements tirent leur épingle du jeu On l'a bien vu pendant la crise sanitaire, le soutien des Etats aux entreprises n'était pas le même partout. Dans ces deux régions, non seulement le nombre de sociétés au bord du défaut de paiement n'a pas explosé. Mais les entreprises cotées ont même pu maintenir un bon niveau de liquidités en répercutant notamment les hausses de coûts sur leur prix de vente. En Chine, le soutien public aux entreprises parvient aussi à maintenir artificiellement bas le niveau des défaillances même si le durcissement de l'accès au crédit a fait chavirer en six mois deux mastodontes de l'immobilier Evergrande, et Sunac. Mais la marge de manœuvre des États commence à se réduire En France, où on a commencé à constater une hausse des défaillances au premier trimestre. Le gouvernement tout juste formé souhaité continuer à accompagner les entreprises via les dispositifs de chômage partiel et les prêts garantis par l'État au moins jusqu'à la fin de l'année notamment pour préserver l'emploi et partant le pouvoir d'achat. Mais ce soutien sera forcément amené à être plus réduit, plus ciblé. Le resserrement des politiques monétaires en cours sonne la fin du quoi qu'il en coûte, autrement dit le soutien sans faille de l'État à l'économie. Et c'est un défi encore plus grand pour les États les moins développés. Le FMI s'était déjà alarmé de la situation de pays émergents comme l'Afrique du Sud, le Brésil ou l'Indonésie où le soutien à l'économie n'a pas été assez important en 2020. Beaucoup au début de la crise du Covid-19 ont instauré des moratoires sur les dettes aux ménages et aux entreprises. Alors qu'il est impossible de prédire quand prendront fin les vents contraires qui planent sur l'économie mondiale, l'écart risque de se creuser encore avec les pays développés. Deux économistes de la Banque mondiale alertent sur les risques de dettes cachées des entreprises dans ces pays Dans une récente tribune, Carmen Reinhart et Leora Klapper alertent sur les conséquences de la fin des mesures de soutien à l'économie dans les pays à revenu faible ou intermédiaire. Les moratoires sur les dettes qui ont été consentis n'ont pas toujours été accompagné d'une supervision bancaire suffisante. Du coup, on découvre désormais des montagnes de créances qui ne seront probablement pas honorées. L'enquête « Pulse » de la Banque mondiale, sur 24 pays à revenu faibles et intermédiaires, montre qu'en janvier 2021 déjà, plus de 40% des entreprises anticipaient des retards de paiements dans les six mois. On peut penser que cette proportion a augmenté depuis. Les auteures de la tribune appellent les États à instaurer plus de transparence afin de circonscrire le plus tôt possible le phénomène et ainsi ne pas menacer l'accès au crédit pour les ménages et les entreprises et partant, une éventuelle reprise économique.

La embotelladora mexicana da pasos de negocio en el vecino del norte; Rivian ya vale más que Volkswagen y Shell ya no será ni ‘Royal' ni ‘Dutch'. Además el extracto de una entrevista con Carmen Reinhart, economista en Jefe del Banco Mundial. Puedes leerla completa aquí.

As if controlling spiraling inflation wasn't enough to worry about, the world's central bankers are under increasing pressure to help solve climate change, income inequality and myriad other societal ills. What's more, elected officials in some nations are trying to exert more power over bankers for political ends. Stephanie Flanders debates the proper role of a central banker with three esteemed women economists, Isabel Schnabel of the European Central Bank, Carmen Reinhart of the World Bank and Minouche Shafik of the London School of Economics and Political Science. While bankers can't be the “white knight” who rushes in to save the world from global warming or income inequality, they can use their bully pulpit to prod slow-moving politicians to act, Shafik says. Schnabel goes a step further, arguing that tough talk alone won't suffice, and that central bankers should use what economic levers they have available to advance important causes. Of the three economists, Reinhart raised the most concern about inflation, currently running at an annual rate of 5.4% in the U.S. and 4.1% in the euro area. Yes, the world needs to address the climate crisis, she says, but nothing will stop the green economy faster than high prices, which may lead to tighter monetary policies and a steep drop in financing in developing nations. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

World Bank President David Malpass says the World Bank will keep pushing to help developing countries improve their business climates when asked about the bank's decision to cancel its flagship “Doing Business” reports after a series of data irregularities and claims of data manipulation.Malpass says strong research products remained a high priority for the bank and said it had taken several steps to improve research integrity, including elevating chief economist Carmen Reinhart to a role in senior management.

World Bank President David Malpass says the World Bank will keep pushing to help developing countries improve their business climates when asked about the bank's decision to cancel its flagship “Doing Business” reports after a series of data irregularities and claims of data manipulation.Malpass says strong research products remained a high priority for the bank and said it had taken several steps to improve research integrity, including elevating chief economist Carmen Reinhart to a role in senior management.

World Bank President David Malpass says the World Bank will keep pushing to help developing countries improve their business climates when asked about the bank's decision to cancel its flagship “Doing Business” reports after a series of data irregularities and claims of data manipulation.Malpass says strong research products remained a high priority for the bank and said it had taken several steps to improve research integrity, including elevating chief economist Carmen Reinhart to a role in senior management.

Today we are tackling an issue that is on the minds of every African policy maker, and one that has captured international discussions for several years: African Debt. Debt can be an incredibly useful tool for governments when managed transparently and correctly, and when it is used to fund investments that pay off in the long term. It can fill important funding gaps that development assistance and domestic resource mobilization cannot. But several countries have found themselves in a vicious cycle of debt, effectively mortgaging their people's futures by agreeing to riskier and less transparent terms that hold their fiscal space hostage. Civil society groups in many places have rightly become increasingly vocal in opposition to borrowing for large projects, advocating for more prudent spending and greater transparency. Host Albert Zeufack, Chief Economist for Africa at the World Bank, discusses this and more with Carmen Reinhart, the World Bank Group's Chief Economist and an expert on global debt.

How do Investors in Sovereign Bonds Fare? Josefin Meyer (Kiel Institute for the World Economy) is one of the young stars of the sovereign debt world. Her recent paper with Carmen Reinhart and Christoph Trebesch looks at how investors in sovereign debt fared from Waterloo to the present day (up to 2016, anyway). The paper is astonishing in scope and finds that the returns to investors in sovereign debt--notwithstanding the many (often serial) defaults and restructurings--are significantly greater than what would be predicted by standard finance models. What is driving these excess returns? Should we all be rushing out to buy Lebanese and Argentine bonds? We ask Josefin these and other questions, including what to think of current Covid-era sovereign bond yields (e.g., negative yields at present for Greece). Producer: Leanna Doty

Carmen Reinhart, Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank Group

Carmen Reinhart, Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank Group

Bandaríkjaþing samþykkti í gærkvöld bjargráðapakka til að takast á við efnahagskreppuna sem fylgt hefur heimsfaraldrinum. Útgjöld vegna aðgerðanna eru áætluð upp á 1,9 billjónir dollara og er þeim einkum ætlað að koma fólki með meðal- og lágar tekjur til góða. Hver Bandaríkjamaður á að fá 1400 dollara ávísun. Þetta ræddu Þórunn Elísabet Bogadóttir og Björn Þór Sigbjörnsson við Boga Ágústsson í Heimsglugga vikunnar. Spáð er hagvexti í flestum vestrænum ríkjum á þessu ári eftir mikinn samdrátt vegna COVID-19 í fyrra. Þrátt fyrir það segir Kenneth Rogoff, hagfræðiprófessor við Harvard og einn virtasti hagfræðingur veraldar, að kreppunni sé ekki lokið. Við heyrum í Rogoff, sem skrifaði ásamt Carmen Reinhart bók um efnahagskreppur í 800 ár sem ber heitið ,,Núna er þetta öðruvísi", (This time it's different), sem Rogoff segir vera kaldhæðni. Þá var rætt um kalda sambúð Breta og ríkja Evrópusambandsins. Írar saka Breta um að hafa í tvígang brotið útgöngusaminginn úr ESB um stöðu Norður-Írlands. Í Bandaríkjunum er ráðamönnum umhugað um að Brexit stefni ekki friði á Norður-Írlandi í hættu. Írar hafa veruleg ítök vestanhafs, þar sem tugmilljónir rekja ættir sínar til eyjunnar grænu, þar á meðal Joe Biden forseti.

Bandaríkjaþing samþykkti í gærkvöld bjargráðapakka til að takast á við efnahagskreppuna sem fylgt hefur heimsfaraldrinum. Útgjöld vegna aðgerðanna eru áætluð upp á 1,9 billjónir dollara og er þeim einkum ætlað að koma fólki með meðal- og lágar tekjur til góða. Hver Bandaríkjamaður á að fá 1400 dollara ávísun. Þetta ræddu Þórunn Elísabet Bogadóttir og Björn Þór Sigbjörnsson við Boga Ágústsson í Heimsglugga vikunnar. Spáð er hagvexti í flestum vestrænum ríkjum á þessu ári eftir mikinn samdrátt vegna COVID-19 í fyrra. Þrátt fyrir það segir Kenneth Rogoff, hagfræðiprófessor við Harvard og einn virtasti hagfræðingur veraldar, að kreppunni sé ekki lokið. Við heyrum í Rogoff, sem skrifaði ásamt Carmen Reinhart bók um efnahagskreppur í 800 ár sem ber heitið ,,Núna er þetta öðruvísi", (This time it's different), sem Rogoff segir vera kaldhæðni. Þá var rætt um kalda sambúð Breta og ríkja Evrópusambandsins. Írar saka Breta um að hafa í tvígang brotið útgöngusaminginn úr ESB um stöðu Norður-Írlands. Í Bandaríkjunum er ráðamönnum umhugað um að Brexit stefni ekki friði á Norður-Írlandi í hættu. Írar hafa veruleg ítök vestanhafs, þar sem tugmilljónir rekja ættir sínar til eyjunnar grænu, þar á meðal Joe Biden forseti.

Bandaríkjaþing samþykkti í gærkvöld bjargráðapakka til að takast á við efnahagskreppuna sem fylgt hefur heimsfaraldrinum. Útgjöld vegna aðgerðanna eru áætluð upp á 1,9 billjónir dollara og er þeim einkum ætlað að koma fólki með meðal- og lágar tekjur til góða. Hver Bandaríkjamaður á að fá 1400 dollara ávísun. Þetta ræddu Þórunn Elísabet Bogadóttir og Björn Þór Sigbjörnsson við Boga Ágústsson í Heimsglugga vikunnar. Spáð er hagvexti í flestum vestrænum ríkjum á þessu ári eftir mikinn samdrátt vegna COVID-19 í fyrra. Þrátt fyrir það segir Kenneth Rogoff, hagfræðiprófessor við Harvard og einn virtasti hagfræðingur veraldar, að kreppunni sé ekki lokið. Við heyrum í Rogoff, sem skrifaði ásamt Carmen Reinhart bók um efnahagskreppur í 800 ár sem ber heitið ,,Núna er þetta öðruvísi", (This time it's different), sem Rogoff segir vera kaldhæðni. Þá var rætt um kalda sambúð Breta og ríkja Evrópusambandsins. Írar saka Breta um að hafa í tvígang brotið útgöngusaminginn úr ESB um stöðu Norður-Írlands. Í Bandaríkjunum er ráðamönnum umhugað um að Brexit stefni ekki friði á Norður-Írlandi í hættu. Írar hafa veruleg ítök vestanhafs, þar sem tugmilljónir rekja ættir sínar til eyjunnar grænu, þar á meðal Joe Biden forseti.

Carmen Reinhart, economista chefe do Banco Mundial, alerta para o COVID Financeiro. Carmen também é especialista em calotes de governos, recessões, crashes e picos inflacionários. E seu recado sobre a situação é direto: "qualquer comentário sobre recuperação é enganoso." Os IPOs no Brasil passaram de R$ 10.2 bilhões em 2019 para R$ 45.3 bilhões em 2020, um aumento de 344%. É o maior boom de IPOs desd 2007. Já a Tabela do IR segue defasada em 113% em relação a inflação. Na prática, a falta de correção aumenta a quantia de imposto que você paga todo mês.

Ethan Ilzetzki is an associate professor of economics at the London School of Economics and a research affiliate with the Centre for Economic Policy Research. Ethan is also a returning guest to the show, and he re-joins Macro Musings to talk about the European Central Bank’s big strategy review, the future of the Euro, and whether change is afoot in our international monetary system.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Ethan’s Twitter: @ilzetzki Ethan’s website: https://www.ilzetzki.com/   Related Links:   *Why Is the Euro Punching Below Its Weight?* by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff https://www.nber.org/papers/w26760   *Will the Secular Decline in Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive COVID-19?* by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/will-the-secular-decline-in-exchange-rate-and-inflation-volatility-survive-covid-19/   Centre for Macroeconomics Panel of Experts Surveys: https://cfmsurvey.org/surveys   Register for the AEA’s 2021 Virtual Annual Meeting: https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/   *Ethan Ilzetzki on the US Dollar as an Anchor Currency* https://macromusings.libsyn.com/56-ethan-ilzetzki-on-the-us-dollar-as-an-anchor-currency   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Dambisa Moyo, a global economist and bestselling author, joins Scott to discuss the five trends she believes will define the post-pandemic world economy. They discuss all sorts of topics like the private sector, deglobalization, and public policy. Dambisa also explains what board members can be doing better. She is a trusted advisor on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and technology themes and serves on a number of global corporate boards including 3M Corporation, Chevron, and Condé Nast. Follow her on Twitter, @dambisamoyo. (13:29) Scott opens with his thoughts on the big IPO week and how Airbnb achieves three hurdles: differentiation, relevance, and sustainability, while DoorDash does not. He also explains why he believes WarnerMedia’s decision to release its slate of 2021 films in theaters and on HBO Max the same day is a baller move.  This week’s Office Hours: the future of the podcast industry and whether CrossFit could take on Peloton’s business model. Have a question for Scott? Email a voice recording to officehours@section4.com.  Algebra of Happiness: advice for giving care at the end of a loved one’s life.  Dambisa’s book recommendations: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What is the outlook for the world economy in 2021, and how much lasting damage has been done in 2020? Carmen Reinhart, chief economist at the World Bank, explains how this crisis compares with previous ones. We find out how China's rapid rebound is taking it back to the future. And, we predict the impact of Joe Biden's policies on US-China trade relations. Tom Standage hosts. Subscribe to The Economist for full access to print, digital and audio editions: www.economist.com/podcastoffer Music by Chris Zabriskie "Candlepower" (CC by 4.0) See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

What is the outlook for the world economy in 2021, and how much lasting damage has been done in 2020? Carmen Reinhart, chief economist at the World Bank, explains how this crisis compares with previous ones. We find out how China’s rapid rebound is taking it back to the future. And, we predict the impact of Joe Biden’s policies on US-China trade relations. Tom Standage hosts. Subscribe to The Economist for full access to print, digital and audio editions: www.economist.com/podcastoffer Music by Chris Zabriskie "Candlepower" (CC by 4.0) See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Carmen Reinhart, World Bank Chief Economist and Vincent Reinhart, Mellon Chief Economist look at how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting the global economy and financial markets. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, discusses why he expects dollar-renminbi to take over as a dominant currency pair. Dr. Deborah Fuller, University of Washington School of Medicine Microbiology Professor, says at least 50-60% of the population will need to be vaccinated in order to stop this pandemic. David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research Chief Economist & Strategist, sees a release of pent-up demand once a vaccine is broadly distributed. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Carmen Reinhart, World Bank Chief Economist and Vincent Reinhart, Mellon Chief Economist look at how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting the global economy and financial markets. Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Chief International Strategist, discusses why he expects dollar-renminbi to take over as a dominant currency pair. Dr. Deborah Fuller, University of Washington School of Medicine Microbiology Professor, says at least 50-60% of the population will need to be vaccinated in order to stop this pandemic. David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research Chief Economist & Strategist, sees a release of pent-up demand once a vaccine is broadly distributed.

Rate, review and download our podcast It’s been almost a year since reports of a new strain of coronavirus first emerged. Even back then the IMF was sounding the alarm about the high and rising levels of debt in developing economies. Today, after lockdowns and severe economic contractions, debt is growing almost as fast as the coronavirus pandemic is spreading. “It’s not the moment to be timid on debt crisis resolution,’ says the World Bank’s Chief Economist, Carmen Reinhart. “Proposals need to be bold in terms of delivering debt reduction for the debtors. Because, if not, … risks of the lost decade are very big.” What’s next? How can we manage the debt crisis which appears to be fast approaching? Listen to Carmen Reinhart, Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times and Beata Javorcik, EBRD Chief Economist discussing the challenges ahead. The discussion was moderated by the EBRD’s Head of External Communications, Anthony Williams. Like what you hear? Review our podcast on iTunes or tweet us @EBRD #EBRDEconTalks

Confira as principais notícias do caderno Economia do Estadão desta sexta-feira (18/09/20)See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

“Even by the standards of systemic crises, this is a once in a century, global – truly global – crisis,” explains Carmen Reinhart, the World Bank's newly-appointed Chief Economist, about the pandemic-led economic downturn. In a special appearance on The Development Podcast, Reinhart and World Bank Group President David Malpass give us their perspective on the health of the global economy and what they believe a path to recovery looks like. “More-so than the 2008 crisis,” according to Malpass, “this one is really hitting the poor, hitting the developing countries. It's not only a financial crisis, but it's a true deep, deep economic crisis.” Plus: Pabsy Mariano joins hosts Paul Blake and Raka Banerjee to preview this year's entirely virtual World Bank Group – IMF Annual Meetings and details how you can participate from home. Show notes: -Read Carmen and Vincent Reinhart's article, “The Pandemic Depression”, in Foreign Affairs: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-08-06/coronavirus-depression-global-economy (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-08-06/coronavirus-depression-global-economy) -Get the latest on the 2020 World Bank Group – IMF Annual Meetings and plan to participate: http://live.worldbank.org/ (http://live.worldbank.org)

Part of the New Normal series. This episode features The Honourable Sri Mulyani, Minister of Finance, Indonesia, and Carmen Reinhart, Vice President and Chief Economist, World Bank Group. The discussion is moderated by Susanna Moorehead, Chair, OECD's Development Assistance Committee.

La economista cubana de la Universidad de Harvard, Carmen Reinhart, estuvo en En Diálogo con Longobardi y habló sobre el proteccionismo actual y el impacto en el mercado financiero global.

Carmen Reinhart, Harvard Kennedy School Professor of the International Finance System, says the coronavirus, Saudi-Russia oil war, and risk of debt defaults have created a perfect storm for emerging markets. Mohamed Younis, Gallup Editor in Chief, reports that 52% of working Americans say their financial situation has already been affected by the coronavirus. Oliver Chen, Cowen Senior Equity Research Analyst, says the speed and viability of consumer spending post-crisis will be challenging. Shahab Jalinoos Credit Suisse Head of FX and Macro Trading Strategy, expects dollar strength to be relatively short-term. Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives Founder & President, says the effectiveness of U.S. fiscal stimulus measures will determine if businesses can stay open and restart operations. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Carmen Reinhart, Harvard Kennedy School Professor of the International Finance System, says the coronavirus, Saudi-Russia oil war, and risk of debt defaults have created a perfect storm for emerging markets. Mohamed Younis, Gallup Editor in Chief, reports that 52% of working Americans say their financial situation has already been affected by the coronavirus. Oliver Chen, Cowen Senior Equity Research Analyst, says the speed and viability of consumer spending post-crisis will be challenging. Shahab Jalinoos Credit Suisse Head of FX and Macro Trading Strategy, expects dollar strength to be relatively short-term. Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives Founder & President, says the effectiveness of U.S. fiscal stimulus measures will determine if businesses can stay open and restart operations.

McAlvany Weekly Commentary Peter Zeihan “U.S. consolidation is the order of the day” Following depression the U.S. will see the fastest re-tooling in world history Time to review these shows: Carmen Reinhart, Robert Higgs, Dr. Joseph Tainter, Neil Howe, & Harold James About This Week’s Guest: Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist who combines an expert understanding of […] The post Disunited Nations – Who Wins Or Loses When Global Order Breaks Down? appeared first on McAlvany Weekly Commentary.

Pandemics are not new but the way the world has responded is unprecedented. As country after country calls time-out on their daily lives, the global economy is in free-fall. Carmen Reinhart says it's wartime and we need to be better soldiers. Professor Gigi Foster agrees. We must aggressively quarantine and protect vulnerable people by day. Then go for a beer afterwards so the publican can pay his workers. Harvard Professor Carmen Reinhart, co-author of This time it's different: an account of eight centuries of financial folly

In einer neuen Folge von "Lauer und Wehner" sprechen Ulrich und Christopher über Beugehaft für Politiker, die sich nicht an Gerichtsbeschlüsse halten, über sogenannte SUVs, über die sogenannte Schwarze Null und viele andere Themen. Zunächst geht es um Boris Johnson, der vor einem schottischen Gericht bezüglich seiner Verlängerung der Parlamentsferien, der "Prorogation" scheiterte. Der Fall geht nun vor den britischen Supreme Court. Firmen, die "Vote Leave" unterstützen wetten derweil an der Börse auf negative Folgen des Brexits für die britische Wirtschaft. Den von Christopher erwähnten Tweet findet man hier. Im Anschluss geht es um Beugehaft für Regierungsmitglieder, die sich nicht an Gerichtsbeschlüsse halten. In der vergangenen Woche war vor dem EuGH eine mündliche Verhandlung zu diesem Thema. Aus Ulrich Wickerts Buch "Redet Geld, schweigt die Welt - Was uns Werte wer sein müssen", liest Christopher danach vor. Es kommt zu einem Exkurs über eine ZDF-Doku über Königin Maxima der Niederlanden. Informationen zum fundamentalen Attributionsfehler findet ihr hier. In der letzten Woche wurde die Öffentlichkeit durch einen schweren Verkehrsunfall in Berlin Mitte erschüttert. Ulrich und Christopher reden über den Fall im Speziellen und was daraus für die Verkehrspolitik im Allgemeinen folgen muss. Das von Christopher erwähnte Foto findet ihr hier. Informationen zum Unfall in Thüringen findet ihr hier. Hiernach sprechen Ulrich und Christopher in aller Kürze über die neue EU-Kommission, die jetzt zusammen gestellt ist. Eigentlich wollten sie nicht darüber sprechen, tun es dann aber doch ganz kurz: Die bevorstehende Wiedereinführung der Meisterpflicht. Zum Schluss geht es dann um und über die sogenannte Schwarze Null, also die Vorstellung, dass ein Bundeshaushalt, der seine Ausgaben durch die Einnahmen deckt, besonders toll ist. In diesem Zusammenhang erwähnt Christopher die Harvard Ökonomïnnen Carmen Reinhart und Kenneth Rogoff, ihre (falsche) Theorie und wie ihr Fehler aufflog. Zusätzliche Informationen dazu findet ihr hier. Weil es auch kurz um die Klimakatastrophe geht, erwähnt Christopher eine Studie, wonach die Menschheit 1,8 Billionen US-Dollar ausgeben müsste, um die gröbsten Folgen der Veränderungen abzufedern. Den Artikel dazu findet ihr hier. Wie immer freuen wir uns über Feedback und Anregungen. Unterstützt "Lauer und Wehner" durch einen Dauerauftrag auf das folgende Konto: IBAN: DE25700222000020192089 BIC: FDDODEMMXXX Oder über eine Zuwendung per Paypal Folgt @LauerundWehner auf Twitter Den Feed des Podcasts findet ihr hier. "Lauer und Wehner" gibt es auch auf Spotify. "Lauer und Wehner" auf iTunes. "Lauer und Wehner" auf YouTube. Dieser Podcast hat Kapitelmarken. Sollte Dein Podcastprogramm diese nicht anzeigen, sind hier die Zeiteinträge zur Orientierung: 00:00:00.000 Begrüßung 00:03:11.631 Was ist "Lauer und Wehner"? 00:05:25.012 Intermezzo: Ulrich war beim Richterbund 00:10:33.750 Aktuelles zum Brexit, Prorogation kommt vor den Supreme Court 00:21:18.979 EuGH zu Beugehaft für Regierungsmitglieder 00:37:59.725 Lesung aus "Redet Geld, schweigt die Welt" 00:53:39.075 Sogenannte SUVs 01:22:57.113 Neue EU-Kommission 01:31:01.662 Wiedereinführung der Meisterpflicht 01:35:24.321 Die sogenannte Schwarze Null 02:01:13.106 Verabschiedung

McAlvany Weekly Commentary About this week’s show: The opaque transfer of wealth using negative interest and regulation Inflation is hidden by making the same priced potato chip bag even smaller Never underestimate the Government’s ability to create a “captive audience” About the guest:  Carmen M. Reinhart is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at […] The post Carmen Reinhart Reprise: Can The Bank Pick Your Pocket? appeared first on McAlvany Weekly Commentary.

“I was born in a different country, and that colored my life experience,” says Carmen Reinhart, Harvard professor, about her decision to study international economics. She discusses the male-dominated field of finance and explains how she approaches economics with a detective’s frame of mind.

Joe Gagnon is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics where he has been since September 2009. Previously, Joe worked for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors as a senior economist and the associate director of both the Division of International Finance and the Division of Monetary Affairs, and he has also served at the US Treasury Department.  Joe is a returning guest to Macro Musings and joins the show today to talk about the growing interest among U.S. politicians in managing the currency to help facilitate trade imbalances. David and Joe also discuss the policy implications of trade imbalances, the new Libra currency, and how to us countervailing currency intervention to combat currency manipulation.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/07152019/currency-manipulation-trade-imbalances-and-libra   Joe’s Twitter: @GagnonMacro Joe’s PIIE profile: https://www.piie.com/experts/senior-research-staff/joseph-e-gagnon?author_id=653   Related Links:   *Currency Conflict and Trade Policy: A New Strategy for the United States* by Joe Gagnon and Fred Bergsten https://www.piie.com/bookstore/currency-conflict-and-trade-policy-new-strategy-united-states   *The Financial Market Effects of the Federal Reserve’s Large-Scale Asset Purchases* by Joe Gagnon, Matthew Raskin, Julie Remache, and Brian Sack https://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb11q1a1.htm   *A Plan for Economic Patriotism* proposal by Elizabeth Warren https://medium.com/@teamwarren/a-plan-for-economic-patriotism-13b879f4cfc7   *Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?* by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff* https://www.nber.org/papers/w23134   *Did France Cause the Great Depression* by Douglas Irwin https://www.nber.org/papers/w16350   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Brad Setser is a senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations where he works on macroeconomics, global capital flows, and financial crises. Brad also served as a deputy assistant secretary at the U.S. Treasury Department from 2011 to 2015 where he worked on Europe’s financial crisis, currency policy, financial sanctions, commodity shocks, and Puerto Rico’s debt crisis. Brad joins the show today to talk about global economic imbalances and why we should care about them. David and Brad also discuss emerging market tensions in Turkey, the implications of running current account deficits, and the economic dangers accompanying the existence of a monetary superpower. Brad’s blog: https://www.cfr.org/blog/Setser Brad’s Twitter: @Brad_Setser Related Links: *Putin’s Unlikely Ally in His Standoff With the West: His Central Banker* by Anatoly Kurmanaev https://www.wsj.com/articles/putins-unlikely-ally-in-his-standoff-with-the-west-his-central-banker-1534773380 *Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?* by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, & Kenneth Rogoff http://www.nber.org/papers/w23134 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Want to get your hands on a signed copy of Tyler Cowen’s new book Stubborn Attachments before it hits bookstores on October 16th? Rate and review your favorite Mercatus podcast, including Macro Musings, Conversations with Tyler, the Hayek Program Podcast, or the Mercatus Policy Download on Apple Podcasts and you’ll be entered to win: get.mercatus.org/podcastcontest/

In this episode, Haley interviews the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard Kennedy School, Carmen Reinhart. Reinhart talks with Haley at the Ninth International Conference on Complex Systems about financial fragility and economic booms and busts. She also explains the profound complexity of financial crises describing them as black swan events which affect many systems connected to human wellbeing.

Ethan Ilzetzki is an assistant professor of economics at the London School of Economics and a research affiliate at the Centre for Economic Policy Research. He joins the show to discuss exchange rate regimes, anchor currencies, and the new Triffin dilemma. Ethan points out how the U.S. dollar is connected to a staggering 70 percent of global GDP. David and Ethan discuss what the dollar’s dominant role in the global economy means for U.S. monetary policy, both at home and abroad. David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Ethan Ilzetzki’s LSE profile: http://personal.lse.ac.uk/ilzetzki/index.htm/ David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Ethan Ilzetzki’s Twitter: @ilzetzki Related links: “Exchange Arrangements Entering the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?” by Ethan Ilzetzki (with Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff) http://personal.lse.ac.uk/ilzetzki/index.htm/Research/Ilzetzki&Reinhart&Rogoff.pdf “How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?” by Ethan Ilzetzki (with Enrique G. Mendoza and Carlos A. Vegh) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030439321200116X

Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates' founder, says populism is a global phenomenon. Harvard Professor Michael Porter says he rejects the idea that America wants angry populism. Admiral James Stavridis says NATO won't collapse under Donald Trump. Christopher Eisgruber, president of Princeton University, says 80 percent of Princeton students are graduating with zero debt. Nicholas Stern, former UK government climate change czar, says the world can cut emissions 20 percent and double GDP in 20 years. Finally, Carmen Reinhart, a professor at Harvard University, says China is fighting depreciation and capital flight is not entirely in their control. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates' founder, says populism is a global phenomenon. Harvard Professor Michael Porter says he rejects the idea that America wants angry populism. Admiral James Stavridis says NATO won't collapse under Donald Trump. Christopher Eisgruber, president of Princeton University, says 80 percent of Princeton students are graduating with zero debt. Nicholas Stern, former UK government climate change czar, says the world can cut emissions 20 percent and double GDP in 20 years. Finally, Carmen Reinhart, a professor at Harvard University, says China is fighting depreciation and capital flight is not entirely in their control.

In this episode of The Sound of Economics, we discuss the issue of indebtedness and debt resolution with Carmen Reinhart, Professor of the International Financial System at the Harvard Kennedy School. Professor Reinhart highlights the scale of the debt overhang in many advanced economies. She also presents evidence that deleveraging has been notably slow since the last global financial crisis. She discusses how this overhang is affecting the speed of recovery, and calls for debt restructuring – especially in the private sector. We also hear from Bruegel Research Fellow Maria Demertzis, who explains the significance of non-performing loans and argues for simplified bankruptcy laws. SPEAKERS: Carmen Reinhart, Professor of the international financial system, Harvard Kennedy School Maria Demertzis, Research Fellow, Bruegel CREDITS Presented by Giuseppe Porcaro Produced by Vanessa Cotterell and Giuseppe Porcaro

Almost a decade after the financial crisis, global economic growth is fizzling and many of the world's economies are laden by high and often rising public and private debt. With increasingly limited scope for conventional monetary policy, decision-makers are turning to greater policy coordination, fiscal stimulus, financial regulation, and less structural reforms to foster the recovery. Yet, according to Carmen Reinhart, comprehensive debt restructuring is rarely included in the policy mix. Why should it be? And how could it help growth? Please join the Council on Global Affairs and Carmen Reinhart for a discussion of the importance of debt in the global economy.

Jason Burack of Wall St for Main St interviewed returning guest, the CEO of the McAlvany group of companies (http://www.mcalvany.com/ )and the host of the superb McAlvany Weekly Commentary http://mcalvanyweeklycommentary.com/ podcast about investing and the economy, David McAlvany. During this 30+ minute interview, Jason starts off by asking David about the cashless society, war on cash, financial repression and negative interest rate policy that academic PhD Keynesian Economists and central bankers are discussing and implementing. Harvard Economists Larry Summers and Ken Rogoff (who has a new book out called The Curse of Cash http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/the-curse...) want to eliminate all cash including $10, $20 and $100 bills! Crazy articles like this Bloomberg Op Ed piece are now coming out saying how the free market would support deeply negative interest rates https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articl... David just interviewed Carmen Reinhart for this week's McAlvany Weekly Commentary about this very subject. His interview of Reinhart is over an hour and well worth your time to understand what the academics and political elites have planned for us! http://mcalvanyweeklycommentary.com/c... Jason and David discuss what negative interest rates and trying to eliminate cash means (way less freedom for everyone) and they discuss how desperate governments are now and how they will become more desperate. Jason asks 2 listened questions about China and also about what a global economic reset will look like to wages, prices and mortgages? To wrap up the interview, Jason asks David about why he thinks the rally in gold and silver and precious metal mining shares started in December 2015.

McAlvany Weekly Commentary About this week's show: The opaque transfer of wealth using negative interest and regulation Inflation is hidden by making the same priced potato chip bag even smaller Never underestimate the Government's ability to create a “captive audience” About the guest:  Carmen M. Reinhart is the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor of the International Financial System at […] The post Carmen Reinhart: Financial Repression Requires a Captive Audience appeared first on McAlvany Weekly Commentary.

Carmen Reinhart gave a lecture exploring some of the options countries have to reduce their sovereign debt burden – a pressing issue as the global economy tries to recover from its recent crises. She especially focused on heterodox solutions such as restructuring and financial repression.

Le prove scientifiche alla base delle politiche di austerità applicate in messo mondo sono state confutate. Come? I dati erano allineati male nei fogli di Excel utilizzati nell'autorevole ricerca di Carmen Reinhart e Kenneth Rogoff. A scoprirlo un dottorando. Sembra una battuta e invece è la realtà.In questa puntata, parliamo anche della rimozione della Concordia, del Bullismo e degli effetti negativi sulla salute delle vittime e vi preannunciamo le prossime inchieste che realizzeremo.Buon ascolto!

Economist Dean Baker and Jay Ackroyd discuss the current state of the economics profession. More here: Center for Economic Policy & Research http://www.cepr.net/ Follow @deanbaker13 @jayackroyd @ceprdc

Tim Harford tells the story of the student who uncovered a mistake in a famous economic paper that has been used to make the case for austerity cuts. In 2010, two Harvard economists published an academic study, which showed that when government debt rises above 90% of annual economic output, growth falls significantly. As politicians tried to find answers to the global economic crisis, “Growth in a Time of Debt” by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff was cited by some of the key figures making the case for tough debt-cutting measures in the US and Europe. But, in the course of a class project, student Thomas Herndon and his professors say they have found problems with the Reinhart-Rogoff findings. What does this mean for austerity economics?

- Dr. Carmen Reinhart, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics - Please call 1-800-388-9700 for a free review of your financial portfolio

Economist Carmen Reinhart, co-author of “This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,” offers compelling insight into the global economic crisis. Series: "Economics Roundtable" [Public Affairs] [Show ID: 22626]

Economist Carmen Reinhart, co-author of “This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,” offers compelling insight into the global economic crisis. Series: "Economics Roundtable" [Public Affairs] [Show ID: 22626]

- Moe discusses government debt situation with guest Dr. Carmen Reinhart. Please call 1-800-388-9700 for a free copy of report The Liquidation of Government Debt.

Moe discusses the impace of the US debt and how to liquidate it with guest Carmen Reinhart.  Call 800-388-9700 for a free copy of The Liquidation of Government Debt report.

January 2011 featuring Chris Edwards, Michael D. Tanner, Carmen Reinhart, Adam S. Posen, Gerald P. O'Driscoll Jr., Barney Frank, Jerry L. Jordan See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

We take an in-depth look at the food industry in this week's show. David Kessler and Richard Watts are in the studio to discuss the responsibilities of producers of 'junk food'. Plus influential economist Carmen Reinhart on the next big crisis: government debt

Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the ideas in her book This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (co-authored with Kenneth Rogoff). They discuss the role of capital inflows in financial crises, the challenges of learning the right lessons, and what is generally true about financial crises over time and place. Reinhart applies these observations to the current crisis, discusses the possibility of the U.S. defaulting on its sovereign debt, and discusses the possibility of financial reforms that might make a difference.

Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the ideas in her book This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (co-authored with Kenneth Rogoff). They discuss the role of capital inflows in financial crises, the challenges of learning the right lessons, and what is generally true about financial crises over time and place. Reinhart applies these observations to the current crisis, discusses the possibility of the U.S. defaulting on its sovereign debt, and discusses the possibility of financial reforms that might make a difference.

Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the ideas in her book This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (co-authored with Kenneth Rogoff). They discuss the role of capital inflows in financial crises, the challenges of learning the right lessons, and what is generally true about financial crises over time and place. Reinhart applies these observations to the current crisis, discusses the possibility of the U.S. defaulting on its sovereign debt, and discusses the possibility of financial reforms that might make a difference.