ING THINK aloud

Officials from China and the US will meet in Switzerland this week to de-escalate a trade war that has disrupted global supply chains, deepened economic uncertainty, and triggered significant market volatility. In this podcast, ING's Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, discusses how the talks could unfold, and the impact of the tariffs on China's economy this year and beyond.

President Trump's sweeping tariff announcement on April 2nd, a 90-day pause for most countries yet with escalating tariffs on China, exemptions on tech products from China, and later, news that these exemptions may only be temporary have left investors deeply unsettled.While much of the focus last week was on soaring Treasury yields and falling stock markets, corporate bonds were hit hard, too.Spreads on corporate bonds widened by the most since the regional banking crisis two years ago, as investors demanded higher returns in a riskier, more unpredictable environment.Bond funds have seen huge outflows and the market for new issues of debt has all but ground to a halt.In this podcast, ING's Credit Strategist Tim Rahill explains why he remains so cautious about the market and why investors need to be selective.

US-EU tariffs are a threat to the export-driven economies of Central and Eastern Europe.But ING economists argue that the region has ways to manage the disruption, and a trade war could serve as a much-needed catalyst for change.  In this podcast, a replay of our live webinar, ING's Inga Fechner, Peter Virovacz, David Havrlant, Rafal Benecki, Valentin Tataru, and Muhammet Mercan explain why they think the region could prove to be more resilient than most expect.

The root cause of America's economic imbalances can be traced to a single factor: the strength of the US dollar. At least, that's the view of Stephen Miran, President Trump's newly appointed Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors.In an essay published late last year, Miran argued that the dollar's strength, driven by inelastic demand for Treasuries and the dollar's status as a global reserve currency, has resulted in persistently cheap imports, reduced the competitiveness of its exports, eroded US manufacturing, and resulted in soaring deficits.His answer to this problem is a so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord, where trading partners would sell dollars and US Treasuries from their FX reserves or face higher tariffs and the removal of security guarantees.But is an overvalued dollar really to blame for America's financial problems? Would trading partners agree to the plan? And what could it mean for the US markets?  In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner and Padhraic Garvey explain why they think the plan would be counterproductive and fraught with risk.

President Trump's decision to temporarily suspend military support for Ukraine, coupled with his implicit threat to withdraw US forces from Europe unless Nato allies increase their defence spending, has upended the near 80-year transatlantic alliance, and left European countries scrambling to respond.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called for a ‘surge' in defence spending and said nothing is off the table when it comes to raising money. Last week, she unveiled an €800bn plan to allow member states to increase spending and borrow money for defence purposes without violating the bloc's strict budget rules.  But some EU member states have already pushed back, with highly indebted countries like Italy worried about the financial strain of the plan and Germany concerned about the implications for its fiscal conservatism.So who will pay, how much will they pay, and what will it all mean for Europe's economy, markets, and security?In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski and Netherlands' Chief Economist Bert Colijn discuss the hard political and financial choices ahead for Europe and the chances of success.

In this podcast, ING commodities analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey share their views on the outlook for energy, metals, and agriculture in the year ahead.

A new US president, trade war threats, political instability in Europe, and mounting fiscal concerns obscure the outlook for the global economy in 2025. In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss the themes that will shape the economy, inflation, and interest rates over the coming year.

Aluminium is an essential metal in our daily lives. It also plays a crucial role in the energy transition, and demand is soaring. But producing aluminium is highly energy-intensive, and urgent action is needed to reduce the industry's carbon footprint. In this podcast, ING's Ewa Manthey, Egor Fedorov, and Coco Zhang discuss the ongoing efforts to make the industry more sustainable.

ING FX strategists Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole, and Frantisek Taborsky discuss how Donald Trump's policies will reshape global currency markets in the year ahead.

Credit markets reacted positively to the outcome of the US election, with spreads - the difference between yields on corporate bonds relative to those on government securities - narrowing across the board. But the longer term implications are more complicated. ING analysts Jeroen van den Broek and Tim Rahill predict a tough year ahead for credit, with a Trump presidency one of 25 reasons to be cautious in 2025.  In this week's THINK aloud, a replay of our live webinar, Jeroen and Tim explain why they think spreads could widen next year and why investors need to be selective while strategists Suvi Platerink Kosenon and Jesse Norcross take a closer look at banks and real estate.

The countries of Central and Eastern Europe have successfully avoided the middle-income trap and evolved into high-income economies. The next challenge is to converge with the income levels enjoyed by some of the core EU economies. But this could prove more difficult. The old growth model, based on exports and cheap labour, has reached its limits, and a new strategy is now required. In this week's THINK aloud, a condensed replay of our live webinar, we discuss the long-term challenges and opportunities in the region, and share our views on the outlook for growth, inflation and monetary policy over the coming year.

Inflation is down and unemployment is rising. Have global central banks left it too late to start cutting interest rates? ING's economists and analysts share their views in this week's THINK aloud.

The economies of Central and Eastern Europe are largely in recovery mode. Slowing inflation and rising real wages have boosted consumer spending, which should continue to support GDP growth well into 2025. Meanwhile, on the investment front, the region is drawing substantial interest from large multinational corporations, as its strategic location, low cost base and skilled workforce position it  as an ideal hub for nearshoring. The benefits of EU accession have been tangible across the board. But of course, there are short- and longer-term challenges. In this podcast, a condensed replay of our live Webinar, our team of experts share their views on Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine and the Commonwealth of Independent States.

The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates on Thursday from a record high of 4%. It's an unusual move for two reasons: There's no recession or crisis to precipitate a cut – in fact the eurozone economy has recently shown signs of improvement. And it comes ahead of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, which has traditionally led the way for the ECB, but isn't expected to ease policy until later in the year. In this week's THINK aloud, a replay of our live quarterly webinar, ING's Carsten Brzeski and James Knightley discuss why policymakers are currently pursuing different paths, how long the divergence could last, and whether the coming US and European elections could influence decisions on monetary policy. James Smith looks at the timing of a Bank of England rate cut amid a crucial UK vote while Chris Turner explains what it could all mean for the markets.  

China is a country in transition. After decades of rapid growth at any cost, the economic model is shifting to one centred on high quality, sustainable growth driven by the consumer. In this podcast, a replay of our recent webinar, ING's Chief Economist for Greater China Lynn Song tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne why he thinks this will be a difficult but necessary transition while Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey explains what it could mean for industrial metals. 

In this week's THINK aloud, we bring you the highlights of our Economics Live webinar, where we discussed the outlook for the global economy, monetary policy and financial markets with ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, James Smith and Francesco Pesole.

2023 was the hottest year on record. The Copernicus Climate Change Service says temperatures last year likely exceeded “those of any period in at least the last 100,000 years”. Yet the United Nations says global commitments to slash greenhouse gas emissions are still “falling far short of what is required”. Without urgent action, scientists say, our planet faces severe and irreversible climate disruption. But there is some hope. And it comes from Artificial Intelligence, as ING's Ewa Manthey explains in this podcast.

Recent months have seen the US dollar on a powerful bull run. Propelled by strong economic growth and a hawkish Federal Reserve, which has signalled that interest rates will stay higher for longer, the dollar index has risen around 5% since July. But will this strong dollar theme continue in 2024? ING's Chris Turner has his doubts.

The price of oil surged more than 30% in the third quarter, driven by solid global demand, supply cuts from OPEC+ and additional voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. But is the market starting to turn? And what does it all mean for growth, inflation and monetary policy? ING's Head of Commodities Strategy, Warren PattersonSenior Economist Bert Colijn says this has serious implications for growth, inflation and monetary policy in the eurozone.

As interest rates in the US, UK and Europe approach a peak, and economic growth shows further signs of faltering, the focus has firmly shifted to rate cuts. In this week's THINK aloud, a replay of ING's live central bank webinar, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss their forecasts for monetary policy over the coming year while Chris Turner explains what it all means for markets. 

As the Western world struggles to tame high inflation, fears of persistent deflation are taking root in China. Prices at the factory gate have been dropping for months and in June, fell at the fastest pace in seven years. Consumer prices, meanwhile, have begun to flatline. The property market is stagnating and the economy overall has been losing momentum, fuelling speculation that China could be facing a prolonged period of decline similar to the so-called Lost Decade witnessed by Japan in the 1990s. China, the world's second biggest economy, may indeed be entering a new era, after many years of rapid growth. But ING's Regional Head of Research in Asia, Rob Carnell, says comparisons to Japan are wide of the mark. In this podcast, he explains why.          

Global temperatures have shattered records this month, heightening the urgency to reduce carbon emissions. But the energy transition and the shift to electric vehicles, in particular, is fraught with challenges, as ING Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey explains in this podcast.

In this podcast, a replay of an ING event this week, Developed Markets Economist James Smith and Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne discuss the outlook for UK inflation, interest rates, and mortgage costs, and whether a recession is now inevitable while Global Head of Markets Chris Turner explains what the markets are looking for - and why the pound has recently been faltering.

In a live webinar event this week, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski and James Smith discussed the outlook for inflation, economic growth and monetary policy around the world while Chris Turner explained what it could all mean for markets.

As talks to raise the US debt ceiling go down to the wire, and the threat of a default looms large, currency markets have remained remarkably composed. In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner discusses what could happen to the dollar if a deal is not agreed, and what he expects from the rest of the FX world in the months ahead.

As two more regional US lenders - PacWest and Western Alliance - saw their share prices collapse this week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again but hinted that this may be the peak of the tightening cycle. In this podcast, ING's Chief International Economist James Knightley explains why he expects the Fed to reverse course "very quickly and very sharply" while ING's Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski discusses what this could all mean for Europe.

With soaring public debt since the Covid pandemic and much higher debt servicing costs after aggressive rate hikes around the world, emerging markets remain a risky proposition. Some countries, like Zambia, Ghana, and Sri Lanka have already defaulted. The IMF has revised down its forecasts for EM economies in recent months, and the global impact of the recent banking crisis in the US and Europe is not yet known. Yet, ING's sovereign debt strategist James Wilson sees value in the developing world. In this podcast, he explains why.  

In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Sector Research Jeroen van den Broek and Credit Strategist Tim Rahill discuss how the recent turmoil in the banking sector has impacted the credit market and why they remain constructive on the outlook for corporate bonds in 2023.

In this podcast, ING's Padhraic Garvey and Antoine Bouvet discuss the latest central bank decisions to raise interest rates despite recent turmoil in the banking sector.

In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss where interest rates may be heading in the US, Europe and UK while Chris Turner explains what this could all mean for global markets.

One year after Russia's devastating invasion of Ukraine, Europe is still learning to adapt to the new economic reality. In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson, Peter Vanden Houte and Chris Turner discuss the short- and long-term implications of the war for energy supplies, the economy and global financial markets.

In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski and James Smith discuss whether interest rates in the US and Europe are close to a peak, what this could mean for the global economy and whether rate cuts could be in the offing this year.

Global commodity markets have swung wildly this year, and the volatility may be set to continue into 2023. While Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent prices surging earlier in the year on concern that supply would be disrupted, worries about demand have since become the main driving force, with Brent crude falling below $80 a barrel this week for the first time since January. In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey discuss what they expect from the market next year.

The COP27 climate summit in Egypt was supposed to be the moment when governments turned lofty aspirations into real world action, implementing the climate pledges made in Glasgow last year. Instead, meaningful progress on critical issues has stalled, with some countries even being accused of backsliding on their original commitments. Still, ING economist Gerben Hieminga and ESG researcher Coco Zhang are cautiously optimistic about the outcome.

After four 75bp rate hikes, the US Federal Reserve has signalled a slower pace of tightening ahead. But Chair Jerome Powell also warned that it is "very premature" to consider a pause and that rates may need to stay higher for longer, as the Fed battles to contain inflation near a 40-year high. In this podcast, ING's Chief International Economist James Knightley and Regional Head of Americas, Padhraic Garvey, discuss what this could mean for the US economy and market interest rates over the coming year.

In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner, James Smith and Antoine Bouvet discuss the UK government's fiscal policy, why it's sent markets into a tailspin and whether the Bank of England's intervention will be enough to stave off a financial crisis.

In this week's THINK aloud, ING's Chris Turner, Developed Markets Economist James Smith and Senior Rates Strategist Antoine Bouvet discuss the latest inflation data from the US and UK, the implications of intervention in energy markets in Europe and the outlook for monetary policy.

The European Central Bank cited the weak euro as one reason to raise interest rates by 75bp on Thursday - the most on record. But tighter monetary policy is unlikely to change the euro's course. In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Markets Chris Turner explains why - and shares his broader outlook for the FX world in the months ahead.

The Bank of England raised interest rates by 50bp on Thursday, the most in a quarter century, as inflation sits at a 40-year high. And despite forecasting a protracted recession amid an 'exceptionally' uncertain backdrop, the central bank also pledged to act 'forcefully' again in the future. In this podcast, ING's James Smith discusses the rationale behind the decision and what could happen next.

The Securities and Exchange Commission's climate disclosure rules were controversial from the start. But a recent ruling by the US Supreme Court has cast further doubt on the regulator's ability to implement the proposal. In this podcast, ING's Deputy General Counsel Tim Meehan and ESG Analyst Coco Zhang explain why the rules matter so much for investors and what could happen now.

The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in more than a decade this week and left the door open for further hikes in a bid to combat the highest inflation on record. But the Bank also announced a new bond-buying programme to soften the blow of rising rates amid a political crisis in Italy, a deteriorating economic outlook, and fears of a new debt crisis. ING's Carsten Brzeski says the strategy is akin to stepping on the brakes and the accelerator at the same time. So can it work? What's the central bank's next move? And what does it all mean for Europe's economic outlook?

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says the battle to contain inflation without triggering a recession will be "very challenging". In this podcast, ING's International Economist James Knightley discusses his expectations for monetary policy in the months ahead and whether the central bank can engineer a soft landing.

The war in Ukraine will exacerbate the UK's cost of living crisis this year, with real disposable incomes set to drop by the most on record. In this podcast, ING economist James Smith discusses the outlook for growth and inflation, and what the unprecedented squeeze on living standards means for future fiscal and monetary policy.

Global commodity markets have been swinging wildly since Russia invaded Ukraine, with everything from oil to wheat caught up in the crisis. In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson discusses the challenge of reducing western dependency on Russia, and where the markets may be heading next.

Putin's invasion of Ukraine has dampened expectations for economic growth in Europe and raised forecasts for inflation, making life more difficult for the European Central Bank. In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Macro, Carsten Brzeski, discusses how the war has changed his outlook for the economy and what the central bank should now.

In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner and Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne reflect on a historic week that has shaken confidence and rocked financial markets around the world.

Carbon markets have been hailed as a solution to climate change. But how do they work? Will they be effective in bringing emissions down to levels that the earth can sustain, or are they simply an exercise in greenwashing? ING economist Samuel Abettan shares his views in this podcast.

The Federal Reserve is optimistic about US growth prospects next year, with policymakers now calling for three interest rate hikes in 2022. But the US bond market appears to be sending a rather different signal, with a flattening yield curve suggesting the recovery could be cut short. In this podcast, ING's Padhraic Garvey discusses why long-term yields have remained so low in the face of soaring inflation and impending rate hikes, and whether things could change in 2022.

The Omicron variant will hit economic growth in Europe over the coming months, but won't derail the recovery next year, according to ING's Carsten Brzeski, who remains optimistic about the region's prospects despite a recent surge in the virus and restrictions to contain its spread.

It's fair to say the COP26 climate agreement in Glasgow has received a mixed response. While UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson hailed the deal as "truly historic" and a "game changer" for the planet, climate activists have called it an abject failure, with former Extinction Rebellion spokesperson Rupert Read describing the outcome as "stunningly, pitifully, entirely inadequate". In this podcast, ING's Samuel Abettan and Coco Zhang say the truth lies somewhere in between.

To everything there is a season. And for the US Federal Reserve, this is a time to taper. But how significant is the move, when will interest rates rise, and are markets pricing this correctly? In this podcast, ING's Chief International Economist James Knightley provides some answers.