Sharkey, Howes & Javer

This week on Inside the Economy, we address stock market performance, corporate America, current trade and tariff developments, and government debt. The S&P 500 posted its best May performance in 35 years, challenging the old saying, “Sell in May and go away.” Which companies led the index during this rally? How have capital expenditures evolved among large technology firms in recent years? We also explore how Asian economies have significantly increased their net purchases of U.S. bonds and stocks since 1997—a trend largely driven by their export relationships with the U.S. and subsequent investments in U.S. Treasuries. Has this pattern changed since the onset of trade tensions? Finally, as tariffs increase the cost of imported goods and services, could businesses begin passing those costs on to consumers? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Unemployment at 4.2% • 30-year bond yield at 4.95% • U.S. Debt-to-GFP ratio is 123% as of April 2025

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss tariffs, trade relations with the European Union, interest rates in the U.S. and abroad, and global stock market performance. U.S. Customs duties reached an all-time high, generating $25.5 billion in revenue in May. What sectors are the primary contributors to this surge? In recent developments, the U.S. and the E.U. have begun discussions on future trade agreements. As our largest trading partner—accounting for roughly 5% of U.S. GDP—what is currently the largest import from the E.U.? Turning to the bond market, the 30-year Treasury yield has hit both a yearly and decade high. While Moody's recent downgrade played a role, what other factors might have contributed to the spike in yields? Finally, we explore market expectations for interest rate changes. How much easing is currently priced in based on 12-month federal funds rate futures? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • 30-year bond yield at 5.03% • Head CPI Inflation at 2.3% (YOY) • Bank of Japan Policy Rate at .50% in May

This week on Inside the Economy, we dive into the current state of wage growth, job prospects, inflation trends, Federal Reserve activity, and emerging trade agreements. Wage growth, which experienced downward pressure following the Fed's interest rate hikes starting in 2022, appears to be stabilizing. Currently, the average monthly wage per U.S. worker is around $7,000. How does this figure compare with wages in the E.U. and other nations? On the inflation front, the cost of borrowing (interest rates) exceeds the rate of inflation (CPI), a potentially positive signal for the economy. Is there mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates this summer? Meanwhile, trade negotiations are gaining momentum. How significant is it for the U.S. to secure a balanced trade agreement with China? What elements of the recent E.U. deal stand out as particularly beneficial for the U.S.? And which other countries might be priorities in America's trade strategy? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Core PCE Inflation at 2.6% (YOY) • 10-year bond yield at 4.37% • ISM Services at 51.6

This week on Inside the Economy, we take a closer look at the impact of new tariffs, the S&P 500, and ongoing trade issues—particularly with China. Revenue from customs duties, commonly referred to as tariffs, has reached an all-time high since record-keeping began. While this revenue may soon peak and begin to decline, it is not projected to disappear entirely. In which countries or industries could tariffs remain elevated? Turning to markets and the S&P 500, earnings and revenues are not setting records, but healthcare and other sectors have been trending upward. Why are industrials moving lower? Could the market currently be in oversold territory? Trade tensions also continue to escalate, particularly between the U.S. and China. How does China's dependence on exports with the U.S. compare with that of other trading partners. Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • New Orders for Durable Goods up 9.1% • Custom Duties reach $15B in revenue in April • Manufacturing Production Output index at 101.1 in March

This week on Inside the Economy, we analyze the strength of consumers in the economy, trade and tariffs, and economics of Russia in Europe. The economic report is still providing minimal worry signs for the current state of the economy. Consumer spending ticked down slightly in February—but has generally remained on trend. What events may have impacted consumer spending in the first quarter? Tariff strategies have been implemented at higher levels than expected but have recently been scaled back. Vietnam was the first country to enter negotiations with the U.S.—what is being discussed with Scott Bessent? What other countries have started talks with the U.S.? Meanwhile, European nations are recognizing the importance of Russia's vast hydrocarbon supply as energy costs continue to rise. How does U.K. household electricity spending compare to that of the U.S.? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • U.S. Core CPI at 2.8 (YOY) • Unemployment at 4.2% • Discretionary Consumer Spending increased 2.1% in February (YOY)

This week, on "Inside the Economy," we will break down the international stock markets and their outperformance compared to the US in 2025. Could this be the beginning of a long-awaited turnaround in the international markets? The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure showed a slight uptick in March while personal incomes also rose. Can US consumers continue to power the economy forward as they have over the past few years? Amid a market pullback and the potential for a correction in the S&P500, we review recent market volatility and how often we see corrections and bear markets. Overall, we continue to see strength in international stocks and a normalization in inflation. Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • European stocks are beating the US by a record • Gold, International stocks, and Fixed income are the best performers of the year so far • Portfolio diversification appears to be benefiting investors as the S&P500 nears correction territory

This week on Inside the Economy, we address consumer attitudes and market trends, specifically considering the S&P 500 entering correction territory. Revolving consumer credit as a percentage of disposable personal income is hovering around 6%, which has historically been considered a healthy level. Mortgage debt as a percentage of GDP continues to stay on track. What is the current level of foreclosures in the housing market compared to 2008? Are trends in auto delinquencies showing signs of concern? The S&P 500 has reached correction territory but may have also entered oversold territory. Could the correction be a sign of trouble, or simply volatility? Looking at the timeframe from election day to now, treasuries are now beating stocks. How might future Federal Reserve meetings impact treasuries? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • U.S. Core CPI at 3.1 (YOY) • 30-year Mortgage rate at 6.65% • S&P 500 1-year return of 10%

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore unemployment and jobs, U.S. net worth by households, and the housing market. Economic data suggests a potential return to trend growth. As of January, job openings reached 7.6 million, while unemployment peaked at 6.8 million. With recent developments regarding federal job cuts, potential reductions to the Department of Defense workforce have been considered. If a select percentage of these workers are laid off, what effect could that have on national unemployment? In other news, U.S. net worth has reached $170 trillion, primarily driven by housing and market investments. How much wealth is held by the average U.S. household compared to the rest of the world? New home sales fell 10% in January, but the overall level of home sales remains high when compared to 2010-2016. How has the multifamily sector performed in recent months? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Durable Goods at 3.1% • 10-year bond yield at 4.29% • Crude Oil at $69.47 a barrel

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss the current state of the domestic consumer in relation to inflation and interest rates, the potential for a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund, and Europe and Asia. The media has been buzzing about an increase in year-over-year inflation. Is this necessarily bad news, or is it an adjustment in the numbers? Which inflation data point saw the biggest increase? Additionally, the current administration has proposed the idea of a U.S. Sovereign Wealth Fund, with the goal of promoting fiscal sustainability. Could monetizing the U.S.'s majority stake in gold significantly aid in the creation of the fund? Across the globe, China has seen record investment outflows, alongside a minimal amount of inbound investment. Japan, once one of China's top partners for direct investment, has shifted its focus. Who is Japan now prioritizing for direct investment? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • U.S. Core CPI at 3.3 (YOY) • 30-year Mortgage at 6.87% • The U.S. holds 8.1k metric tons of Gold as of Dec. 2024

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss recent market activity, Treasury Bills, Oil, and the U.S. international trade balance in light of recent tariff discussions. The U.S. equity markets had a strong year last year but have been more volatile as the new year begins. Net profit margins and forward earnings are good, but what does the price-to-earnings ratio tell us about equities? Market expectations for Fed Policy has raised its target Federal Funds rate from 3% to 4% by 2026 between last fall to the start of the year. Is there a chance the Fed will hike rates in 2025? In oil production, the U.S. remains a net exporter of oil and petroleum products. Historically, we were dependent on imports from Saudi Arabia—are we still dependent on them today? Finally, with ongoing tariff discussions, will they dramatically affect the U.S. international trade balance? Historically, the U.S. has had a service surplus and a goods deficit, but could the trade deficit shift with potential tariffs being implemented? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Durable Goods at -2.2% • ISM Survey at 50.9 • U.S. Core CPI at 3.2 (YOY)

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the global economy, the new administration's economic direction, and trade. Looking at projections for global GDP growth in 2025, we're not expecting significant growth in countries like Great Britain and Germany. How will their respective central banks manage inflation compared to the United States? The U.S. economy has experienced steady post-pandemic GDP growth, with consumer spending leading the way. In the year ahead, we'll be closely monitoring both consumer consumption and government spending. As for inflation, what key components will be monitored to ensure CPI remains steady? Turning to global supply chains, the ISM Manufacturing Index has remained in contraction for most of 2024. Key drivers include ongoing supply chain disruptions and the strength of the U.S. dollar. On the flip side, where does the services sector stand—contractionary or expansionary—heading into 2025? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Crude Oil at $76.13 a barrel • Unemployment at 4.1% • U.S. GDP growth rate at 3.1% in Q3

This week on “Inside the Economy,” we break down 2024 market performance, how finances for US households look going into 2025, and the housing market. The S&P 500 Index is in rare air with back-to-back 20%+ returns in 2023 and 2024. Should we expect another 20%+ in 2025? US consumers remain resilient with spending on goods and services finishing strong in 2024. Can US consumers continue to spend at the same rate in 2025? US home affordability remains historically low, and homeownership continues to hover around 62%. High interest rates with long-dated bonds back to their highest level over a year have kept a lid on refinancing and mortgage activity. Where will the US housing market go in 2025? Overall, we continue to see a normalization in the US dollar and interest rates. Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • US housing annual growth remains around its long-term average of 4-7% • 30-year bonds moved back to their highest yield in more than a year, just shy of 5% • US Debt and the US Dollar continue to climb

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we break down the sectors of inflation, market trends, bond yields, and manufacturing production. The primary driver of inflation still present in the market is housing, while core goods show little to no inflation year-over-year. Where else has inflation cooled? New home prices remain high, and new home inventories are steady. Is household debt as a percentage of income impacting consumers when compared to historical data? As for the equity markets, they continue to be overvalued, particularly the Dow. In the manufacturing sector, production is nearly back to where it was pre pandemic. How do other countries like Germany and Japan compare in terms of manufacturing capacity? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • 10-year bond yield at 4.57% • Core Inflation at 3.3% (YOY) • Manufacturing Production Index at 99.0 in November

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate the outlook for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, the job market, housing, and global markets. The chances of a future interest rate cut by the Fed have increased – what factors have led to this change? Yields on fixed income have gone down; how might they react to another interest rate cut? We also explore U.S. manufacturing employment and consider policy shifts in the past several years like tariffs aimed at retaining jobs. Are these policies successfully bringing jobs back to the U.S.? Is the overall job market starting to tighten? Additionally, we discuss the strong momentum in U.S. markets post-election – are stocks becoming overvalued, and what could trigger a correction? Is there still an imbalance between U.S. stocks as compared to markets in other countries? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • 10-year bond yield at 4.17% • Unemployment at 4.2% • 30-year Mortgage at 6.69%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the consumer, markets, expectations, and the cost of money. Total retail sales exceeded $700 Billion in October. Are these high sales due to the upcoming holiday season? Have credit card debt delinquencies increased as a result of higher consumer spending? House prices have yet to retreat, despite higher mortgage rates. How much inventory is available for new home purchases? As for the markets, they continue to reach new record highs. According to the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, is the market currently overvalued or undervalued? Has the gap between U.S. and international securities widened? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • U.S. Head CPI is 2.6 (YOY) • Total Retail Sales in October at $718.9B • Median Single-Family Sale Price in October at $412.2k

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate the post-election economy, changes in the mortgage market, and the future of deficit spending. Jobless claims remain consistent year-over-year, and the personal savings rate has normalized. Regarding wages and salaries, they have been decreasing year-over-year. Are consumers concerned that inflation will outpace their wages? Meanwhile, mortgage rates have increased in October and November. What is the current volume of mortgage refinance applications? Tariffs currently account for two percent of net federal receipts, while individual income taxes and social insurance taxes make up the majority. If more tariffs are enacted, what is the projected impact on future net federal receipts. Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • ISM Services at 56.0 • 30-year Mortgage at 6.79% • Personal Saving Rate at 4.6% in September

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we assess housing affordability, sales, mortgages, household cash on hand, and China's demographics. Housing affordability is near a record low. How much would home prices have to decrease, or household incomes need to increase for affordability to return to the levels seen in the 2016-2019 markets? Total money-market fund assets are at a record $6.51 trillion, even though there aren't any new flows into money markets. How are consumers using, or not using, their cash? Regarding China's demographics, there have been significant shifts. What does the longevity of their nation look like, given the system-wide leverage disparity? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • 10-year bond yield at 4.21% • Unemployment at 4.1% • 30-year Mortgage at 6.54%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore the levels of credit card debt, interest income, and relative insurance premiums across the United States. You may have seen news about credit card balances reaching an all-time high. However, did consumer credit card spending increase or decrease. What are the current levels of delinquencies on credit card debts? In other news, mortgage interest is not going higher, even with the rise in interest rates. How do home prices compare? What is the level of interest income paid out compared to mortgage interest? Regarding insurance, Colorado is on par with Florida concerning average annual insurance premiums. What has driven the increase in premiums in Colorado? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • 30-year Mortgage at 6.32% • Unemployment at 4.1% • U.S Net Wealth in Q2 at $152.8T

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we delve into existing home sales, the current and projected federal funds rate, and the implications of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Existing home sales are trending downward - will the recent interest rate changes improve affordability for home buyers? How might these rate decreases impact the refinance market? As we look ahead, the target for the federal funds rate is projected to be 3.5% by next summer. Is this the soft landing we've all been hoping for? Additionally, deficit spending currently stands at -6.5% of GDP. Is this sustainable long-term? If the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act were to sunset, what would the implications be for deficit spending? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Core PCE Inflation at 2.7% (YOY) • Crude Oil at $68.22 a barrel • Federal Funds Rate at 5%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate consumer spending, the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, and household income and mortgages. Consumer spending has slowed compared to the post-COVID highs, and we've observed a recent deceleration in student loan repayments. Is this a sign of consumer concern? Regarding income, U.S. households have seen an increase as of 2023 numbers. How does this compare to other countries worldwide? Have unions been a contributor to the increase in income? On the other hand, mortgages are a full point lower than they were a year ago. Is this decline due to economic factors or just anticipation? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • U.S. Head CPI is 2.5 (YOY) • 30-year Mortgage at 6.20% • 10-year bond yield at 3.68%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the current state of employment, housing affordability, and U.S. Markets. Hiring has slowed since the post-covid highs. Are employed individuals at risk of losing their job? Is there evidence to support potential layoffs? On the housing front, affordability remains low due to factors such as pricing, cost of insurance, and interest rates. For consumers looking to buy, which markets have the best home value index in terms of the percent change from the 2022 peak? Regarding U.S. markets, recent adjustments have been made based on weakening economic data and the prospect of interest rates coming down. Since the markets are forward-looking, what momentum can we expect for the stock market in the second half of 2024? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Crude Oil at $73.55 a barrel • 30-year Mortgage at 6.35% • 10-year bond yield at 3.86%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer debt and the pending economic slowdown. Credit Card and HELOC balances have ticked up over recent months, but despite this, there has been limited delinquency in student loans, mortgages, and HELOCs. Auto loans and credit cards on the other hand have shown a slight uptick in delinquencies. What does that mean for the consumer as we move into the second half of the year? There is still lots of talk of “recession” on the horizon, as we see unemployment above 4%, but looking at the other data around the economy, does a slowdown seem more likely than recession? Revenue growth within the S&P 500, after a period of earnings recession, is beginning to normalize, reflecting a more balanced economic landscape. Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Headline inflation drops below 3% • Oil remains under $80 • Unemployment at 4.3%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore unemployment, housing, and the federal budget. Regarding employment, the JOLTS three-month moving averages are trending downward. Additionally, permanent job losers and persons completing temporary jobs increased by 1.4% in July. If this figure reaches 2%, what might it indicate for the economy? In other news, Freddie Mac's report on home sale prices shows a decrease year-over-year. Which markets are experiencing greater reductions in home sale prices? Will the overall housing market reach 2009 lows? The Federal Reserve has not materially shrunk the stock of money despite interest-rate hikes. Given the current money supply overhang, can the government stimulate a recovery? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • ISM Survey at 46.8 • Unemployment at 4.3% • 10-year bond yield at 3.99%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss housing, the Federal Reserve interest and Federal funds rate, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Federal funds rate is currently higher than all main U.S. inflation measures. Is the cost of money greater than inflation by design? In other news, per the CPI Primary Shelter measure, rents continue to come down. However, mortgage interest as a percent of disposable income increased slightly. How does that compare to non-mortgage interest such as credit cards and auto loans? If there is a recession, would housing be the driver? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • 10 yr. bond at 4.2% • Industrial Production Output Index at 104.0 in June • U.S. Core CPI at 3.3 (YOY)

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore the broader economic indicators, such as U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), employment, and housing and vacancy rates. Overall U.S. GDP growth has slowed as a comparison of 2023 to 2024 quarter one readings. When might we see negative GDP growth? Will there be a recession? Government employment has recently stabilized and is back to its pre-covid trend. How does this compare to non-government jobs and unemployment? Lastly, home buying conditions are down. What does this mean for new home sales? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • U.S. GDP growth rate at 1.3% in Q1 • Unemployment at 4.1% • 30 yr. Mortgage at 6.95%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss payroll and job openings, market valuations, and foreign demand in U.S. markets. The rate of U.S. job openings has dropped from its post-Covid peak. Is this a negative event or normalization in the job market? In other news, there is a large disparity between the S&P 500 market capitalization as a comparison to the European market. Does this mean the U.S market is overbought? What does this tell us regarding the U.S. dollar as a currency? Additionally, foreign demand has increased in the U.S. market. What securities are foreign investors pouring money into? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • 10-year bond yield at 4.25% • U.S. Head CPI at 3.2 (YOY) • Unemployment at 4.0%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore wages, housing prices and mortgages, and the U.S. financial conditions. The U.S. average hourly earnings report for May came in with a reading of 4%. Why are year-over-year wages still high? What would lowering rates do for wages? As for housing, renters are not experiencing an increased burden regarding their income spent on housing. How does that compare to the homeowner's burden? In other news, U.S. financial conditions are easing with less liquidity issues. What was the U.S. financial conditions index at when the Federal Reserve started interest rate hikes? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • ISM Services at 53.8 • Unemployment at 4.0% • Aggregate delinquency rates at 3.2%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss consumer confidence, mortgage rates, and U.S. Markets. The May consumer confidence index report shows a higher than anticipated reading. Who is typically surveyed for the consumer confidence index report? As for interest rates, the Federal Reserve Board forecasts rates to decrease to 4% in the next two years. What is the forecast for mortgage rates? Lastly, Foreign investments in U.S. Markets eclipse $25 Trillion. Do countries like Singapore, Australia, or the U.K. have additional monies for future investment? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Consumer Confidence Index at 102 • 30-Year Mortgage rate at 6.94% • Foreign Investments in U.S. Markets surpass $25T

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate employment, currency, and the importance of Natural Gas as a U.S. export. The recent job openings report shows a continued trend downward. What does this tell us about the trajectory of the U.S. economy? In other news, the U.S. dollar index continues to strengthen. How do global payments denominated in the U.S. dollar compare to other currencies such as the Euro? Lastly, the U.S. is a major exporter of Natural Gas. How much supply is left to keep the trend going? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Total job openings at 8.5M • U.S. Dollar Index at 106.2 • ISM Manufacturing index falls below 50

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss personal interest expense and changes in household debt. What category has the highest percent change from 2023? New home sales have slowed due to higher interest rates, but what does this mean for delinquency rates? Federal net interest outlays are climbing higher in amount as compared to historical data. However, how does the near 3% share of GDP compare to the past and is it necessarily bad for the overall economy? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • U.S. GDP growth slowed to a 1.6% rate in Q1 • Personal interest expense is approximately $500B • 30-year mortgage at 7.17%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we monitor the increased consumer spending in tandem with rising delinquencies on mortgages. Is the Federal Reserve going to consider any rate hike movement before year-end? Consumers are still flooding into the stock market, alongside money flowing into money market bond funds. U.S. goods imported have remained steady or on the rise for most countries. What country is on the downward trend? Key Takeaways: • U.S. Head CPI at 3.5 (YOY) • Crude Oil at $83.71 • Credit Card account revolving balances exceed $600B

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss the good news for consumers and bad news for the Federal Reserve. Spending on new manufacturing construction projects has increased. Does this emulate a contracting or expanding economy? How will the Federal Reserve react to the ISM Survey and Manufacturing data? Home prices are at a stabilization point and still have a negative year-over-year percent change. Will the consumer start flooding back in the market? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • ISM Survey at 50.3 • Durable Goods increased to 1.4 • Core PCE inflation rate slowed to 2.8% (YOY)

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we explore where the economic slowdown is coming and where it is not. Household credit card debt has increased over the past few years. The outstanding interest payments for non-mortgage debt even caught up with mortgage interest payments. Does this emulate a struggling consumer? Have consumers gone delinquent? Mortgage debt is steady at 50% of GDP. What is the foreclosure inventory as a comparison? Key Takeaways: • Core CPI at 3.8 • Job openings fell to 8.9 million in January • U.S. Foreign workforce increased 5% (YOY)

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we assess household net worth and assets, commercial real estate, and the Dollar. The U.S. consumer has a strong balance sheet; specifically, with checking and savings. What does that mean for overall market exposure? The trade-weighted dollar continues to drive upwards and proving to still be a strong dollar. What does a strong dollar mean on the global scale? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • 10-year bond rate is steady at 4.25% • U.S. GDP at 3.2% in Q4 of 2023 • U.S. Fed Trade-Weighted Broad Dollar Index at 121

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we evaluate the various levels of Consumer debt and trends in the Market. Recent news has shown the appearance of layoffs in the market, but overall layoff numbers continue at 1%. Are we in crisis mode in the labor market? U.S. Household Debt has risen; however, most is held in Mortgage debt. Is the increased consumer debt an issue according to household liabilities and category of debt? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • U.S. Household Debt at $19 Trillion • Bank Deposits equal $17.5 Trillion • S&P 500 reached a 1.6% year over year Growth Rate

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss labor, debt and where the strain is starting to show. The U.S. debt levels are trending lower after recent infusions during the pandemic and reaching pre Covid levels relative to GDP. Should debt levels be a top priority? Unemployment continues to stay in the 3% range. Will unemployment claims increase with a changing marketplace? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Core PCE Inflation under 3% • ISM Manufacturing index nearing 50 • 4th Quarter U.S. GDP grew at a 3.3% annual rate

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to evaluate the flood of new data. Inflation is still trending lower, and the job market continues to be close to full employment. Will the Fed engineer a soft landing? Mortgage rates are also trending lower; however, housing inventory remains at all-time lows. When will things change? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Oil prices back near $75 a barrel • Mortgage rates hovering around 6.5% • 10-year above 4%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we talk about some important economic data. GDP estimates continue to be above trend and unemployment remains low. However, the Fed seems to be content with inflation data trending lower and many are speculating on future rate cuts. How will this impact the stock and bond market in 2024? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Oil prices drop below $70/barrel • Mortgage rates trending below 7% • Headline inflation trends lower

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss labor and financial headwinds. Jobless claims and unemployment remain relatively stable, but how has the labor market changed since 2020 and where will the labor market go from here? Inflation continues to soften, yet as we look to 2024 where do we see potential headwinds to the economy? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • 30-year mortgage down to 7% • Oil hovers around $75 • Unemployment rate at 3.7%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss a variety of economic news. The Fed has one more meeting to round out 2023. All eyes will be on if they continue to hold rates and the impact on unemployment and inflation. In other news, the housing market experienced the lowest number of existing home sales in more than a decade. Will housing prices continue to be resilient in the higher rate environment? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Oil prices steady around $75 a barrel • Mortgage rates stuck in the mid 7%'s • Headline inflation trends lower

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss labor and interest rates. With jobless claims and unemployment remaining relatively stable, how have hourly earnings changed since the pandemic and what does this mean for the labor market as we look ahead? As interest rates have risen from previous multi year lows, what does a higher interest rate environment look like for housing, commercial real estate, and U.S. loans? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Oil touches $80 • Unemployment rate at 3.9% • 30-year mortgages above 7.5%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss an array of economic news. Consumer spending is still strong and retail sales continue to climb. Even as the Fed raises rates, the housing market has stayed strong, and unemployment remains low. What, if anything, will begin to slow or influence the Fed to lower rates? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • Bond yields continue to rise • Oil prices rise again • Mortgage rates approach 8%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss some economic hurdles in the system, as well as the budget deficit. Savings rates and new mortgage applications have dropped below pre-pandemic levels, along with an increasing office vacancy rate. What does this mean for the economy as we move into the 4th quarter? The budget deficit has been a main theme this year, but what are the specifics of where the government collects its revenue, current federal spending, and the US budget as a share of GDP? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Core CPI inflation at 4.1 • Oil below $90 • Unemployment rate hovering at 3.8 • 30-year mortgages above 7.5%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at consumer savings & globalization. Despite strong consumer demand and student loan payments starting back up, household savings remain at pre-pandemic highs. With an everchanging global economy, the US has diversified imports away from China and continues to increase industrial robots when it comes to domestic manufacturing. What does this mean as we look to the future? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Core PCE inflation comes in at 3.9 • Oil stays above $90 • Unemployment rate hovering at 3.8 • 30-year mortgages above 7.3%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we address new economic data. CPI jumped month over month, largely due to the increase in oil prices. How will this impact the Fed's decisions for the rest of 2023? Overall, the economy is moving along, due to a strong consumer. Will the restart of student loan payments change this? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Bond yields continue to tick up. • Oil prices climb above $90 a barrel. • Mortgage rates elevated above 7%.

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at wages and housing. Wage and salary growth has moved back to pre-pandemic levels, with the highest income households seeing the slowest growth, alongside declining job openings numbers. With virtually all rent measures currently on the rise, home prices have also continued to rise despite the recent increase in mortgage rates. Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Headline inflation hovers around 3 • Oil back above $80 • Unemployment rate at 3.8 • 30 year mortgages above 7.15%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to wade through the summer doldrums. The consumer is still spending and enjoying historically elevated home equity values. As the Fed continues to raise rates, yields across the board also rise. Mortgages continue to climb, and longer-term treasury yields slip higher. How long until inflation and the cost of money normalize? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Bond yields continue to rise. • Oil prices slide below $80 per barrel. • Mortgage rates inched up above 7%.

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we discuss some key data pieces. From a year ago, inflation has trended lower, unemployment has stayed the same, and treasury yields continue to climb. The Fed is continuing to raise rates as they receive traditionally conflicting data. Is inflation under control and how high do they need to go with the cost of money? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Bond yields continue to rise. • Oil is around $80 per barrel. • Mortgage rates inched up to 6.9%.

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at the lending market, housing, the Federal Reserve, and other economic data. Lending data is showing delinquencies at record lows, as we prepare for student loan payments to start back up in September. Industrial production in the US has remained high, and with a potential Fed increase of 0.25% in rates and federal outlays outpacing revenues, what does that mean for the economy as we move further into the third quarter? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Headline inflation hits 3 • Oil moves above $75 • Unemployment rate hovers around 3.6

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we look at unemployment and personal savings. Unemployment has continued to be a driver for the Fed decisions and after recently ticking back up, the unemployment rate has begun to slide down. What is causing such a robust employment market? With inflation on its slow decline, we are starting to see personal savings begin to move upward. How does the housing and rental market play a role in this going forward? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Q1 GDP revised up to 2 • 2-year bond approaches 5% • Oil moves back above $70 • Mortgage rates cross over 6.8%

This week on “Inside the Economy”, we continue to look for meaningful changes in the economic data. CPI numbers continue to trend lower as energy and food continue to normalize. Student debt payments have garnered people's attention as payments could come back online after August. How will this impact inflation? Tune in to learn about this and more! Key Takeaways: • Bond yields stable • Oil drops to $69 per barrel • Mortgage rates inch up to 6.7%