Podcasts about nonfarm

Can we get this election over with already? Markets pricing in a perfect gridlock scenario. Earnings season rolling along - good and bad news for stocks. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along... Warm-Up - Yields - Highest in months - ahead of Fed decision (tomorrow) - Drones - will they deliver? - October ends on a down note Markets - Optimism (Hysteria) ahead of (final) Election results - Oil on the move again - Middle East tensions - Mixed results from earnings - but still a generally good look for the main players - What does Berkshire know? - Big DJIA Announcement AH - Chili Competition this weekend - reining champion - have to defend the title... Employment Situation - ADP said private companies hired 233,000 new workers in the month, better than the upwardly revised 159,000 in September and far ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for 113,000. - Nonfarm payrolls were up just 12,000 in October (Briefing.com consensus 120,000) - Nonfarm private payrolls decreased by 28,000 (Briefing.com consensus 105,000) -- These numbers were depressed by the Boeing strike and likely by the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, yet with forecasts suggesting those influences could lop off something on the order of 100,000 positions, the view to October, coupled with sizable downward revisions to the August and September payroll figures, connotes softness in hiring activity. - Unemployment rate stood at 4.1% - no change US GDP - Gross domestic product increased at a 2.8% annualized rate in the third quarter, below the 3.1% estimate and the 3.0% reading Q2. - Consumer spending and federal government outlays were two of the biggest contributors to GDP growth. - The release comes with the Federal Reserve poised to lower interest rates further despite the seemingly strong economy and inflation that remains above target. Palantir Earnings -Back-to-back quarters delivered beats on its top and bottom lines in Q3 and forecasted upbeat Q4 revenue figures. - PLTR's top line continued to accelerate, advancing by 30% yr/yr to $725.52 mln, supporting its improving profitability, with non-GAAP EPS expanding by 43% yr/yr to $0.10. Total customer count continued to grow nicely, up 39% yr/yr and 6% sequentially to 629. - U.S. government revenue has been ramping up in recent quarters. However, in Q3, the segment took a giant step forward, growing revs by 40% yr/yr and 15% sequentially to $320 mln, a seven-fold increase compared to the prior year and the best growth rate over the past 15 quarters. - The commercial side was the showcase in Q3. Like U.S. government, U.S. commercial revs shifted into a higher gear, registering 54% growth yr/yr, up from the +33% delivered last quarter, to $179 mln AMD Earnings - Just not good enough - AMD reported third-quarter results on Tuesday, with earnings in line with forecasts and revenue that slightly beat expectations. - Here's how the company did, compared to LSEG estimates for the quarter ending Sept. 28: - Earnings per share: 92 cents adjusted vs. 92 cents expected - Revenue: $6.82 billion vs. $6.71 billion expected - AMD said its important data center business doubled in sales for the second quarter in a row, but overall revenue guidance for the fourth quarter was in line with consensus expectations. - Stock down Microsoft Earnings - Microsoft's revenue grew 16% in its fiscal first quarter, faster than analysts had anticipated. - Revenue from Azure and other cloud services was up 33%, surpassing estimates. - Guidance for revenue growth fell short of expectations. Amazon Earnings

Nonfarm payrolls slow to the smallest gain since Dec 2020. Dollar opens Monday with negative gap on US election poll. What will Fed officials decide just after the election? RBA gets the ball rolling tonight; expected to stand pat.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

Last week's payroll report showed: Nonfarm payrolls surging by 254,000 in September, up from a revised 159,000 in August and better than the 150,000 Dow Jones consensus forecast. The unemployment rate falling to 4.1%, down 0.1%, as the survey of household employment showed an even stronger picture, with a gain of 430,000. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% on the month and were up 4% from a year ago. Both figures were ahead of respective estimates. And this weekend, Goldman Sachs lowered their odds of a recession to just 15%, meaning there's no better chance of a recession now than there is under any other normal circumstances. This might all seem like GOOD news, and it is for the country at large. But those of us in the mortgage world, see things a bit differently. Good news for jobs, payrolls, and recession risk is BAD news for those of you hoping for lower interest rates. As a result, mortgage rates are higher today vs. just a week ago and lots of people have been sitting on the sidelines watching rates drop and holding off on their purchases and refinances because they were expecting rates to drop further. Here at Townstone, we don't pretend to be fortune tellers, but we have been advising our clients to lock-in over the past few weeks knowing that rates are never guaranteed to go down. The one thing we WILL promise you: complete transparency on your next mortgage transaction. The best possible rate at any given time in the market. The lowest closing costs. The best mortgage process and customer service in the country. We've been doing this for over 22 years and our results speak for themselves. Fill out your request for a FREE consultation today at: www.townstone.com

The Daily Business and Finance Show - Friday, 4 October 2024 We get our business and finance news from Seeking Alpha and you should too! Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium for more in-depth market news and help support this podcast. Free for 14-days! Please click here for more info: Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium News Today's headlines: Nonfarm payrolls roar back in September, unemployment rate slips to 4.1% Helene catastrophe might create downstream disaster for tech industry Spirit Airlines' shares nosedive as Wall Street braces for bankruptcy UnitedHealthcare is latest to sue Medicare over Star Ratings Ubisoft jumps after report Tencent, Guillemot family evaluating takeover bid CrowdStrike likely remains with Microsoft, no serious churn seen: TD Cowen UMB to refile $6.4B lawsuit against Bristol-Myers by end of next week - report Tellurian gains after sale to Woodside Energy gains CFIUS approval Mullen Automotive files for secondary resale of common stock Explanations from OpenAI ChatGPT API with proprietary prompts. This podcast provides information only and should not be construed as financial or business advice. This podcast is produced by Klassic Studios Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Daily Business and Finance Show - Saturday, 7 September 2024 We get our business and finance news from Seeking Alpha and you should too! Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium for more in-depth market news and help support this podcast. Free for 14-days! Please click here for more info: Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium News Today's headlines: Sen. Elizabeth Warren backs DOJ antitrust probe into Nvidia - report Nonfarm payrolls growth shifts up in August, but falls short of expectations Nasdaq ends down 2%, S&P, Dow drop as growth concerns linger after mixed jobs report Harris donors privately calling for ouster of FTC's Khan, SEC's Gensler - Bloomberg Dell Technologies, Palantir set to join S&P 500 Index EPS growth for the Mag 7 is decelerating - NDR Big Lots reportedly to file bankruptcy on Sunday - reports Nippon Steel, US Steel working to delay CFIUS decision on deal - report Explanations from OpenAI ChatGPT API with proprietary prompts. This podcast provides information only and should not be construed as financial or business advice. This podcast is produced by Klassic Studios Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Daily Business and Finance Show - Friday, 6 September 2024 We get our business and finance news from Seeking Alpha and you should too! Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium for more in-depth market news and help support this podcast. Free for 14-days! Please click here for more info: Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium News Today's headlines: Broadcom's dip following earnings presents buying opportunity, analysts say Nonfarm payrolls growth shifts up in August, but falls short of expectations AbbVie declares $1.55 dividend Sen. Elizabeth Warren backs DOJ antitrust probe into Nvidia - report Former GameStop trader becomes third-largest shareholder in JetBlue Lululemon CEO increases stake by another 4K shares Bitcoin set to fall on weekly basis as risk-off mood continues Coinbase continues its losing streak for nine straight sessions Explanations from OpenAI ChatGPT API with proprietary prompts. This podcast provides information only and should not be construed as financial or business advice. This podcast is produced by Klassic Studios Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyGoogleTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Hey there! Welcome to today's market update. Here's what's been happening:

Gold closed the week at $2,442 (up $56) and silver at $28.54 (up $0.64). Terrible jobs numbers this week struck fear in the markets and in the Fed. As recession warnings flash, precious metals are up. Could they go even higher soon? OTHER TOPICS DISCUSSED -VIX Fear gague spikes above 30 -Intel down 30% and ready to cut 15,000+ jobs -Olympics pistol shooting -Fed keeps interest rates unchanged at 5.25% - 5.50% -Nonfarm payroll at 114k jobs vs. 176k expected -Trump and SEC chairman Gary Gensler Quote of the Week: In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine." -Benjamin Graham The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week's economic precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms. The links are below. SchiffGold on Instagram: www.instagram.com/schiffgoldnews SchiffGold on Twitter: twitter.com/SchiffGold SchiffGold on Facebook: www.facebook.com/schiffgold SchiffGold's website: www.schiffgold.com

The Daily Business and Finance Show - Friday, 2 August 2024 We get our business and finance news from Seeking Alpha and you should too! Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium for more in-depth market news and help support this podcast. Free for 14-days! Please click here for more info: Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium News Today's headlines: Intel loses quarter of its market cap after weak guidance, margins worry markets and analysts Bitcoin set to fall on weekly basis as Trump's victory odds slide Nonfarm payrolls rise less than expected in July; unemployment climbs to 4.3% Amazon's Jassy sees 'huge potential' in AWS as genAI 'going to get big fast' Nvidia is in a bubble and the AI theme is “overhyped” - Elliott Management Bed Bath & Beyond sues GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen for insider trading Exxon rises after Q2 earnings topper as Pioneer deal sparks record production Nvidia faces scrutiny of DOJ antitrust probe: report Explanations from OpenAI ChatGPT API with proprietary prompts. This podcast provides information only and should not be construed as financial or business advice. This podcast is produced by Klassic Studios Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 in June — broadly in line with expectations — while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%. Does this spell good news for the Fed? Join Mike Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist, and Phoebe White, Head of U.S. Inflation Strategy, as they discuss the implications for rate cuts, the health of the consumer, corporate balance sheets and more. This episode was recorded on July 8, 2024.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please read JP Morgan research reports related to it's contents for more information including important disclosures. Copyright 2024 JP Morgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Largest US Banks  I continue to remain optimistic about investing in the large financials, specifically the money center banks. For the most part they trade at good valuations and the recent stress test shows they remain healthy. All 31 of the largest US banks passed the Federal Reserve's annual stress test, which provided a hypothetical scenario where unemployment levels rose to 10%, commercial real estate values decreased by 40% and housing prices fell by 36%. Following the results, the banks released plans to buyback stock and increase dividends. JPMorgan increased its dividend 8.7% and authorized a new $30 B share repurchase program. Jamie Dimon noted the dividend increase marked the second this year for JPM. Citigroup raised its dividend 5.7% and said it would continue to assess share repurchases. Bank of America increased its dividend 8%, but made no mention of share repurchases. Wells Fargo increased its dividend 14% and said it has the capacity to buy back common stock over the four-quarter period starting Q3 2024 through Q2 2025. You likely won't see these stocks double over the next 12 months, but I believe many of them over the next few years could produce sound returns of around 10% when including dividends.   Jobs Report The labor market continues to soften, which should be a positive for Fed rate cuts. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 in the month of June, which was better than the 200,000 estimate but less than the downwardly revised gain of 218,000 in the month of May. Combined, nonfarm payrolls in April and May were reduced by 111,000. Looking under the hood, the report was even weaker than the headline number indicated considering government was the second largest contributor adding 70K jobs in the month. Health care and social assistance continued to lead the way as the sectors added 82.4K jobs and construction was strong as well as it added 27K jobs. Areas of weakness included manufacturing (-8K), retail trade (-8.5k), and professional and business services (-17K). Wage gains also continued to soften as average hourly earnings were up 3.9% year over year. This was below last month's reading of 4.1% and is well below the high in 2022 of 5.9%. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.1%, which tied the highest level since October 2021. Part of the increase in the unemployment rate came from a 0.1 percentage point increase in the labor force participation rate to 62.6%. The so-called prime age rate, which focuses on those between ages 25 and 54, rose to 83.7%, its highest in more than 22 years. While a lot of this report may sound negative, it is important to remember that the labor market is softening from a very strong level. We also need to see the labor market soften to give the Fed more confidence in their ability to cut interest rates. I would say this report was very positive considering it achieved the goal of softening without being damaging. We should keep an eye on the reports moving forward to make sure the labor market doesn't fall off a cliff, but as of right now I don't see that happening.    Labor Market In the recent JOLTs report, job openings showed the labor market continues to soften but to a healthy level. Openings stood at 8.1 million in the month of May, which was an increase from 7.9 million in April. While openings have fallen from a record of around 12 million in 2022, they are still above prepandemic levels when they were tracking at just under 7 million. The report showed the number of job openings for each employed worker remained at 1.2. This is below the peak of 2.0 in 2022, but it is right around prepandemic levels. I would not be surprised if we continue to see the labor market soften even a little further. I believe this would be healthy for the economy as it would create a more balanced labor market between employers and employees.   Risky Investing I'm very concerned that the bar on risk taking in investing continues to rise. We are already dealing with craziness like GameStop, Roaring Kitty, cryptocurrencies with no real value, and technology companies that have expectations that the earnings will continue to go to the moon. Now add to that list what is known as “zero days to expiration” better known as 0DTE options. These options currently account for nearly half of the daily volume of the S&P 500 index options, more than double the 17% in 2020. These are simply one day options on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100. It is estimated by early 2025 these 0DTE's will be available for individual equities as well. That's unbelievable! There will be sometime in the future that an event will cause wide volatility and many of these gamblers will lose large amounts of money. I'm disappointed that this is being allowed and the SEC and other regulators are letting this happen. I can't believe I'm going to put this in print, but maybe I should send this to Elizabeth Warren. I'm afraid unsuspecting people with money will see on social media some people shouting how they made tens of thousands of dollars one day with small investments. What you won't see is the larger majority of investors losing large sums through this gambling tool. In fact, retail investors lost more than $350,000 on 0DTE options on an average trading day between May 2022 and September 2023. You also won't see the fact that institutional traders with their algorithmic trading and market makers are able to pounce on split second moves, leaving retail investors with the losing crumbs. I'm in hopes sometime down the road we will see these smaller brokerage firms that are pushing the 0DTE's hit with large fines and hopefully forced into bankruptcy. However, in the meantime, these brokerage firms will be bringing in millions and maybe billions of dollars in fees and commissions. There are more portions of the market now that is no longer investing, but more like playing the lottery or gambling and betting on short term movements. In my opinion 0DTE's should be illegal and people gambling like this should lose their money as it is high risk gambling. What concerns me is they will relate it to the stock market and when they lose money they will say the stock market is risky. If you invest in good quality equities and have a time horizon of 3 to 5 years and they have strong fundamentals, stocks are not risky. Unfortunately, many people right now are caught up in the hype and are more into gambling rather than investing.   Financial Planning: Reviewing Mid-Year Income Now that we are half way through the year, it can be helpful to review your income to estimate how you will end up by the end of the year and make some adjustments. Maybe you had some unexpected income like extra capital gains or a bonus or perhaps your business had more sales than you were expecting. These increases in income may push you into a higher tax bracket or trigger income-related surcharges like the net investment income tax or IRMAA. More income is better than less, but if this is the case, now is the time to mitigate the tax hit. If you are still working, it may be helpful to increase retirement contributions or change which accounts you are contributing to. If you are retired, you might want to adjust how much you are withdrawing from accounts or adjust which accounts you are withdrawing from. It may also be necessary to adjust your withholdings or make an estimated tax payment if you have not withheld enough so far to prevent extra penalties and interest for underpayment of taxes. With rising rates, the interest for underpayment of taxes is much higher than in years past. Other tax strategies like Roth conversions are better implement at the end of the year, but making mid-year adjustments can help your annual income end up where it needs to be.   Stocks Discussed: Micron (MU), Whirlpool (WHR), Nike (NKE)

Favourable jobs data boosted Wall St to a positive finish on Friday investor optimism of rate cuts out of the Fed gained further traction. The S&P500 notched another record close, ending the day up 0.54%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped 0.9% and the Dow Jones ended the day up 0.2%. Nonfarm payrolls for June saw 206,000 jobs added to the economy but the U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% which was higher than economists' expectations and indicates further loosening of the tight U.S. labour market.Over in Europe, markets closed mixed as investors assessed the outcomes of key parliamentary elections in the region. The STOXX 600 fell 0.22%, Germany's DAX gained 0.14%, the French CAC fell 0.26% and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 0.45% as investors responded to the result of the UK's general election where the opposition Labour Party won a vast majority, unseating the Conservatives after 14-years.Across the Asia markets on Friday, it was a mixed session as key economic data weighed on equities markets. South Korea's Kospi Index rose 1.32% on Friday, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.13%, China's CSI lost 0.43% and Japan's Nikkei fell 0.49% from recent record highs after household spending for May unexpectedly dipped 1.8% in real terms for May which fell well short of economists' expectations of a 0.1% rise.Locally on Friday the ASX200 fell 0.1% in a quiet session however the key index still posted a 0.7% gain for the week as coal and gold stocks boosted the ASX200 higher. Miners weighed on the key index on Friday amid the sliding price of iron ore and the big banks each posted a decline too.Healthcare stocks offset some of the heavy losses on Friday with CSL, ResMed and Cochlear each ending the day in positive territory.What to watch today:Ahead of the first trading session of the new trading week, the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX to open the day down 0.14%.On the commodities front this morning, oil is down 0.17% at US$83.24 per barrel, gold is down 0.2% at US$2386.04 per ounce and iron ore is down 1.55% at US$111.31 per tonne.The Aussie dollar has strengthened to buy US$0.67, 108.41 Japanese Yen, 52.70 British Pence and NZ$1.10.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has initiated coverage on Percheron Therapeutics (ASX:PER) with a speculative buy rating and a price target of 14cps with the analyst saying it is a high risk, high reward outlook for the company. Percheron is an Australian biotechnology company seeking to develop ATL 1102 for the treatment of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy, a degenerative neuromuscular disorder caused by a mutation in the gene responsible for the production of dystrophin. The company's next catalyst is the release of headline data from the phase 2b clinical trial due in 2HCY24.Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 23-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $12.25 to the range of $10.70 to $11.00 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Heather Gayton is a member of the Farmers of The Roche-A-Cri, one of Wisconsin's 47 producer-led watershed groups. She says they're doing something different this year -- reaching out to other environmental groups outside of agriculture. She says inviting them to meetings and farms has helped them build trust, speak each other's language, and mitigate finger-pointing when it comes to improving water quality in the area.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Earning a Ph.D. in financial economics is no small feat. And not only did Garrett DeSimone do just that, but he would unknowingly embark on his future career in the process of doing so. His dissertation from the University of Delaware involved the study of event risk premia in single stocks ahead of earnings. And to perform the analysis he engaged with OptionMetrics, a firm specializing in implied volatility data. Now the Head of Quantitative Research there, Garrett leads the firm's efforts to deliver carefully constructed data sets to its client base, while generating original empirical studies of option pricing and trading strategies. Our discussion considers some of his work, starting with his dissertation and the finding that the earnings event risk premium for single stocks makes straddles punitive to own. We liken this to a more recent phenomenon at the index level – the inflated one-day S&P 500 implied vol levels that have occurred in days before 3 macro events – the CPI, the Nonfarm payrolls report and FOMC meetings. We talk as well about one day options and the risk of a blowup. At least at this point, Garret sees flows that are reasonably mixed, with no obvious risk of instability resulting from positioning. Lastly, we discuss recent work he's done on implied dividends using a novel approach. Relative to years earlier, he finds that there is currently very little risk premium implied in dividends. That is, the market is charging almost nothing for bearing the risk that dividends wind up disappointing on the downside. It's interesting work and a good example of the rich information that can be extracted from derivatives markets. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Garrett DeSimone.

In today's episode, Charu Chanana is back in the studio talking macro and forex with Søren Otto. Last week the closely-watch nonfarm payrolls come out incredibly strong, making it interesting to follow this week's FOMC meeting and CPI print. The two discusses this, as well as European Parliament election, upcoming Bank of Japan meeting and the Indian and Mexican elections. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

I ukens Markedspuls snakker Roger og Mads om resultatet av nonfarm payrolls, rentemøtet i ECB og om det forestående møtet til FED. Når vil FED følge etter med sitt første rentekutt, vil det skje i år? Dette diskuteres gjennom episoden. Sist tar man opp verdens nest største selskap, NVIDIA- som har gjort en aksjesplitt. Agenda: (01:26) - Nonfarm payrolls (11:30) - ECB senket renten, hva gjør FED? Finansielle verdipapirer kan både øke og minke i verdi. Det er en risiko for at du ikke får tilbake pengene du har investert. Før du investerer i et fond bør du lese prospektet som er tilgjengelig hos fondsforvalter og nøkkelinformasjonen du finner på ordreleggingssiden og på fondets produktside på nordnet.no.

According to the April jobs report, the U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling. Nonfarm payrolls were softer than anticipated increasing by 175,000 last month, while the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%. Does this all spell good news for the Fed? Join Mike Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist, and Phoebe White, Head of U.S. Inflation Strategy, as they unpack the latest numbers. This episode was recorded on May 3, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please read JP Morgan research reports related to its contents for more information including important disclosures. Copyright 2023 JP Morgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

This week, we dig into the combination of weak growth and hot consumer price inflation that nobody saw coming in the U.S. GDP report. Our spotlight is focused on Central Bank gold buying. The Week in Review (0:54) — Our take on Q1 GDP, U.S. equities, and the risks in private markets The Week Ahead (8:10) — Nonfarm payrolls will headline a busy week The Spotlight (8:33) — Sustained central bank gold buying keeps our long-term $3,000 target intact For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: ⁠https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial⁠

March Jobs Report  I must say, I was very surprised by the strength in the March Jobs Report. Nonfarm payrolls increased 303,000 in the month, which easily topped the estimate of 200,000. Unlike prior reports, there wasn't a major change to the previous months as February saw a negative revision of just 5,000 and January's revision brought the total up by 27,000. There were many positives in the report considering the unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.8%, the labor force participation rate actually increased 0.2 percentage points to 62.7%, and average hourly earnings increased 4.1% which was lower than last month's reading of 4.3%. Areas of strength in the economy included health care and social assistance (+81,300), government (+71,000), leisure and hospitality (+49,000), and construction (+39,000). According the BLS, the leisure and hospitality sector is finally now back to its pre-pandemic level. If the economy and labor market continue to remain resilient, I do worry we may not see those three interest rate cuts we have been expecting during the remainder of the year.   JOLTs In the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) it showed there were 8.8 million job openings in February, which pretty much matched expectations and last month's reading. The job market has continued to remain resilient and I do believe that it will need to enter a Goldilocks period where it is not too hot or too cold. Too many job openings may deter the Fed from considering rate cuts and obviously we do not want a weak labor market as that would be bad for the economy.  Stock Market The stock market has gotten off to a strong start and in the first quarter the S&P 500 was up 10.2%, which marked the best first quarter performance since 2019. The Dow and Nasdaq also had good quarters as they were respectively up 5.6% and 9.1% in Q1. In a recent study, it was pointed that of the 16 times the S&P 500 rose 8% or more in the first quarter from 1950 through 2023, only once (1987) did the index lose ground the rest of the year. In the remaining years, the index gained an average of 9.7% over the next three quarters. In 10 of the 15 years the first quarter's gains were higher than those seen over the remainder of the year. While this is bullish for the remainder of the year, I do worry about the concentration of the market. With Nvidia's strong start and large market cap it accounted for close to half of the entire gain for the index. I don't believe this will be able to continue, but I am optimistic that the rally could continue to broaden which would be beneficial to other stocks.  Office Rents Across the country office rents are holding firm and they are higher now than they were back in the fourth quarter of 2019. The average US office rent has an asking price of $35.24 per square foot. This is an increase from $34.92 per square foot in 2019. It is not a high increase, but compared to a lot of the negativity that the media is spreading, it shows office rents as a whole are still doing OK. I would recommend for investors looking into office real estate to really do their due diligence to make sure they are not buying or investing in a declining property. Stocks Discussed: Visa (V), Tesla (TSLA), Disney (DIS) and McCormack (MKC)

Nonfarm payrolls smash forecasts, reaffirming labor market strength. But dollar unable to hold onto gains, as stock markets race higher. Gold hits new record highs, defying rising yields and geopolitics.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

JD and Joel discuss gold's new record high and silver's tear upwards, an earthquake in NYC, headline jobs numbers, and Peter's most recent podcast. OTHER TOPICS DISCUSSED -Gold is trading at $2,329 (up $100 on the week) -Silver is trading at $27.46 (up about 10% on the week) -Fed governor Adriana Kugler's dovish comments push gold above $2300) -Nonfarm payrolls come in above expectations (303,000 vs. 200,000) -The recent spike in commodities -Peter Schiff's recent podcast -Alan Greenspan's affinity for Rothbard Quote from Murray Rothbard: It is easy to be conspicuously 'compassionate' if others are being forced to pay the cost.” The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week's economic precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms. The links are below. SchiffGold on Instagram: www.instagram.com/schiffgoldnews SchiffGold on Twitter: twitter.com/SchiffGold SchiffGold on Facebook: www.facebook.com/schiffgold SchiffGold's website: www.schiffgold.com

Nonfarm payrolls, JNJ is buying Shockwave, and Fed talk is heating up. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhalcapital.com/disclosure

 Nonfarm payrolls report and European flash CPI to shape rate cut bets. ISM PMIs to also be important for Fed expectations and US dollar. Canadian employment and Chinese PMIs also on the agenda.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

US equities ended mostly higher this week with strong outperformance in the Russell 2000 and some minor weakness in the Nasdaq. The market navigated a shortened trading week deprived of any meaningful catalysts with most looking to PCE this Friday and Nonfarm payrolls next Friday. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index beat slightly with consumers noting they were confident inflation will continue to soften, and expect their financial situations to improve over the coming months.

JD and Joel discuss the new all-time highs in gold, Peter's recent podcast, the Fed's next move, and why silver is an especially good deal. OTHER TOPICS DISCUSSED -Gold is trading at $2178 (up $126 on the week) -Silver is trading at $24.30 (up $1.65 on the week) -Last Friday's Fed policy reports warned of risks to the financial sector -Nonfarm payrolls rose 275,000 for the month topping the forecast of 198,000 -CME Fedwatch tool shows significantly increasing expectations of lower interest rates -Peter Schiff's Podcast Quote from Noam Chomsky: The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow very lively debate within that spectrum." SchiffGold on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/schiffgoldnews/ SchiffGold on Twitter: https://twitter.com/SchiffGold SchiffGold on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/schiffgold SchiffGold's website: https://schiffgold.com/

Investec Wealth & Investment Chief Investment Strategist Chris Holdsworth looks at the nonfarm payroll numbers in the US, the latest IMF global growth forecasts and tax data in SA. Investec Focus Radio SA

I will discuss the NFP data that is setting a projection for the year. The data was good for the job market but is this really true with all the layoffs happening in january??According to reports, the U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in January, pointing to lingering strength in the labor market that could bolster the case for the Federal Reserve to delay cutting interest rates. Nonfarm payrolls in the world's largest economy rose by 353,000 last month, increasing from an upwardly revised total of 333,000 in December, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists had called for a reading of 187,000.December's revision -- a sharp uptick from the prior mark of 216,000 -- was the result of an annual benchmarking process as well as seasonal adjustment factors, the BLS said in a statement.Your support is appreciated! https://www.buzzsprout.com/892009/supporters/newhttps://www.buymeacoffee.com/j2oforexyoutube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCHKVHPpjTRD3WbETbar-0QgSupport the show

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, the Nonfarm Payrolls report, the FOMC meeting, and the earnings market. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyCynthia Honcharenko, Director of Portfolio Management George Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:24 – Glancing at the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey summary, about 9 million job requisitions were opened across the U.S., which was, primarily, unchanged from the month prior01:59 – The Employment Situation report shows an unemployment rate of 3.7%, which, essentially, remains unchanged from previous months 02:13 –Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 353,000 for the month of January. Furthermore, as we look at the revised figures for November and December, the data indicates the numbers were revised upwards by 126,00003:10 – Comments on this week's FOMC meeting and the Committee's overall decision to leave the Fed funds rate unchanged at the target range of 5.25% - 5.50%10:45 – As the earnings market experiences one of the two biggest weeks of companies reporting, we hear comments about the overall S&P 500 index 15:16 – Considering the FOMC meeting, it appears that The Fed is leaning on the side of precautious as they continue to monitor changes within the inflation and employment markets Additional Resources:Key Question: What Should Investors Know About India's Economic Rise? | Key Private Bank2024 Outlook: On the Road (Back) to the Old Normal | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private BankKey Private Bank Investment Brief | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

Employment While the headline numbers for the jobs report showed results that beat expectations, when you look closely at the report it shows a softening labor market which is exactly what the Fed wants to see. Nonfarm payrolls in the month of November showed a gain of 199,000 which topped the estimate of 190,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 3.7% which was better than the forecast for 3.9%. The growth of 199,000 is below the average monthly gain of 240,000 and it is also important to point out that some of the gain in November was attributed to the end of the UAW and actors strikes. In fact, while employment in manufacturing increased 28,000 in November there was a 30,000 person increase in motor vehicles and parts as workers returned from strike. The employment in information also had a gain of 10,000 in the month, but motion picture and sound recording industries added 17,000 jobs as the resolution of labor disputes came to an end in the industry. The strikes have created volatility in the numbers over the last few months and that can also be seen in the revision to September where total nonfarm payroll employment was revised lower by 35,000. With these major strikes now behind us, we should be able to see a better reading in these job numbers moving forward. Another major area the Fed likely has their eye on is the change in average hourly earnings, which points to wage inflation. In the month of November average hourly earnings increased by 4.0%, which was the lowest reading since May 2021. Overall, this report points to the concept that a soft landing is still a real possibility. I believe the labor market will continue to soften, which should be good news for inflation and our economy.   JOLTs Report While it may not look like good news when reading the headline number, the JOLTs report showed exactly what the Fed is looking for. Job openings of 8.73 million in the month of October were below the estimate of 9.4 million and showed a decline of 617,000 or 6.6% compared to the previous month. This also marked the lowest number since March 2021. While this all sounds troubling, it shows the labor market is softening which is what the Fed has wanted to see. It also shows that the labor market is still doing alright considering there are still 1.3 job openings to every available worker. Pre-pandemic this ratio stood at 1.2.   Drug Companies The Biden administration has opened the door to seize the patents of certain costly medications from drugmakers. The administration has unveiled framework that outlines the factors federal agencies should consider in deciding whether to use march-in rights, which take patents for drugs and shares them with other pharmaceutical companies if the public cannot reasonably access the medications. Officials can now factor in the price of a medication in deciding to break a patent. While this may sound like a nice practice, I do worry about the long-term ramifications. While drug companies often do have nice margins on drugs that succeed, people generally do not discuss the billions of dollars that is spent on research and development for drugs that do not succeed. If drug companies cannot offset those costs with high margins on successful drugs, the industry could have major problems. Also, what would the incentive be to spend billions of dollars on research and development for a new drug, when you could just potentially wait for another company to come up with the solution and then use their patent that has been taken from them by the government? This could ultimately stifle innovation in the industry.   Magnificent Seven Remember a few years ago the FANG stocks? They have now been replaced by what is known as the Magnificent Seven which are Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta. People still believe index investing is a great way to invest and diversify your portfolio, but when you look at the S&P 500 you should realize that the Magnificent Seven have carried the index to a year-to-date return of around 20%. If you look at that equal weight index it is actually only up around 6% this year. Also, in the index 44% of stocks are showing negative results. You may think you had diversification with the S&P 500 but currently the seven stocks account for close to 30% of the index. These companies stock prices have continued to perform, but history has proven time and time again that any equity trading at such high valuations eventually comes back to reality. When that happens investors in these seven stocks, and also the index will have disappointing returns. Unfortunately, I cannot tell you when it will happen, only that history has proven itself to be right 100% of the time.   Financial Planning: Reviewing Income at the End of the Year As we get closer to the end of the year, it is getting more important to review income levels and make any necessary adjustments before December 31st. When analyzing income, it is helpful to identify the expected level of adjusted gross income (AGI), the number of itemized deductions (if any), the amount of total taxable income, and the amount of taxable income subject to ordinary income rates. Adjusted gross income is the sum of all reportable income which could be wages, capital gains, interest, IRA distributions, and Social Security to name a few. After tallying AGI, next is the itemized deductions which include mortgage interest, state income and property taxes, charitable donations, and medical expenses. Taxpayers can claim the larger of the itemized deductions or the standard deduction which is $27,700 for a married couple in 2023. These deductions act as an expense which reduces the adjusted gross income and results in taxable income (AGI – deduction = taxable income). From there the long-term capital gain and qualified dividend portion of income can be separated from the other ordinary taxable income as capital gains and dividends are taxed at a lower rate (taxable income = ordinary + capital gains and dividends). From this point a taxpayer can determine what tax bracket they will be in, the tax rate of their capital gains and dividends, and whether their income will trigger any additional net investment income tax or Medicare premiums. Finally, action can be taken such as Roth conversions, realizing gains or losses, charitable donations, or retirement contributions to push income in a more efficient direction.

On this episode, Cole Perry, Senior Market Analyst, and Omar Eltorai, Director of Research, both of Altus Group, navigate various compelling topics that have recently been in the spotlight. They unpack the latest inflation and job market numbers, provide insights from the Federal Reserve's minutes and consider indicators of small business optimism. This episode provides insightful critical analyses and reflections on the state of the economy and the CRE market.Key Takeaways:(01:08) A close look at the U.S. consumer price index and its rise in September. (01:55) September's employment report reveals strength across the labor market. Nonfarm payrolls and other key metrics shed light on the current state of employment.(08:33) JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup's recent performances are discussed — highlighting significant growth in earnings and revenue. (11:22) A brief touch on the performances of PNC and the airline industry, particularly United and Delta.(13:10) From U.S. bank capital regulations to the ECB's increased scrutiny on CRE loans in Europe, the episode covers crucial regulatory shifts and their implications.(16:29) Insights from the Walker & Dunlop Most Insightful Hour in CRE and the State of the Market webinar provide a holistic view of current market dynamics.(21:05) The resilience of regional malls and the evolving work-from-home trends are examined, offering a window into changing consumer and workforce behaviors.Resources mentioned:Cole Perry -https://www.linkedin.com/in/coleperry1/Omar Eltorai - https://www.linkedin.com/in/omareltorai/Altus Group -https://www.linkedin.com/company/altus-group/Altus Group's US Commercial Real Estate Industry Conditions and Sentiment Survey -https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/cre-industry-conditions-and-sentiment-survey-register/Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee Minutes -https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htmNFIB Small Business Optimism Index Report -https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/small-business-optimism-dips-in-september-as-inflation-remains-top-problem/State of the Market Webinar Replay -https://www.altusgroup.com/webinars/us-state-of-the-market-quarterly-analysis/Young Real Estate Professionals of New York -http://www.yrepny.org/Thanks for listening to the CRE Exchange podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber kicked off the hour with the September jobs report; Nonfarm payrolls rose by 336,000 for the month blowing past the consensus estimate for 170,000, which sent stocks lower and yields higher. The anchors also discussed Exxon in talks to buy Pioneer Natural Resources, in a deal that could be worth roughly $60 billion. After the bells, the anchors also discussed Tesla, which cut Model 4 and Model Y prices in the U.S. after the company reported third-quarter deliveries that missed market expectations.  Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

Job growth was stronger than expected in September, a sign that the U.S. economy is working despite higher interest rates, labor battles and disfunction in Washington. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 for the month, better than the Dow Jones estimate for 170,000 and more than 100,000 higher than the previous month, the Labor Department said Friday.  The unemployment rate was 3.8%, compared to the forecast for 3.7% The payrolls increase was the best monthly number since January. The strong numbers are better for the economy than the August numbers, but also signal that the economy refuses to slow down, despite the Federal Reserves efforts to get prices and hiring closer to normal levels. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jobs Report The Jobs Report reaffirmed exactly what the Fed should be looking for and that is a softening labor market. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 187,000 in the month of August. This beat expectations of 170,000, but the previous two months were revised lower by a total of 110,000 payrolls. This would put the three-month average at around 150,000 added jobs per month. This is well below the average monthly gain of 271,000 over the prior 12 months and is in line with 2019 when job gains averaged 176,000 per month. The unemployment rate also increased 0.3% in the month to 3.8%, but this was largely due to the increase in the labor force participation rate which increased 0.2% to 62.8%. This was the highest labor force participation rate we have seen since February 2020. With more people coming back to the labor market, more competition could be a big positive for lower wage inflation. In the month average hourly earnings came in slightly below expectations at 4.3%, which is off the high of 5.9% last year but likely still too high for the Fed. Health care and social assistance led the way in the report adding 97,300 in the month, leisure and hospitality came in second adding 40,000 jobs, and construction was also strong adding 22,000 jobs. The strength in construction does not come as a surprise considering the strength in the industry. The most recent construction spending report showed a 0.7% gain in the month of June to $1.97 T. This marked the 7th straight month of gains and it does not look like the industry is slowing. Areas in the report that were weak included transportation and warehousing which was down 34,200 and information which was down 15,000. The transportation industry was likely hit with the bankruptcy of Yellow as there was a drop of nearly 37,000 positions in trucking. The information sector was hit with the Hollywood strike as the sub-category for motion picture and sound recording dropped close to 17,000 jobs. Job Openings The amount of job openings declined to 8.8 million in the month of July. This was down from the original reading of 9.5 million in the month of June and marked the lowest level of job openings in 28 months. June's reading was also revised lower to 9.2 million. The July reading greatly missed the estimate for 9.5 million openings. Job openings have fallen drastically from the record of over 12 million last year as companies have hired many new employees and have also become more cautious on the economy largely due to increasing interest rates. The number of job openings for each unemployed worker was still strong at 1.5 which compares to pre-pandemic levels around 1.2. For context, before Covid at the beginning of 2020 job openings totaled about 7 million. As the labor market has softened, the number of people quitting their jobs has also declined. Job quitters had topped 4 million for much of the post-pandemic period, but that has softened this year and in July the level was just 3.5 million which was the lowest level in two and a half years. This should be good news on the inflation front as less competition for workers should result in less wage inflation. Inflation The Fed's closely watch gauge for inflation, known as the PCE, showed little change and few surprises in the month of July. The headline number showed a gain of 3.3% compared to last year which did rise slightly from June's reading of 3.0% and Core PCE which excludes food and energy was right in line with expectations at 4.2% compared to last year. This was a slight uptick compared to June's reading of 4.1%. I do wonder how impactful summer spending was on prices as consumer spending was up 0.8% in the month of July. This was the biggest gain in six months. Spending was powered by the best ever Amazon Prime Day, the box office hits of Barbie and Oppenheimer, and the Taylor Swift concert. Without major events like these, there could be pressure on spending which would have an impact on pricing and inflation as well. I still believe hitting the 2% target will require some time, but inflation is still heading in the right direction and there should not be a need to hike rates at the Fed meeting in September. Bank Fees A couple different bank fees have been coming down with the average overdraft fee falling 11% from last year to $26.61 and non-sufficient funds fees hitting an all-time low average of $19.94. One fee that has been rising is ATM fees. The average ATM fee rose to a record $3.15, this marks the 22nd record in 25 years. Fees for using an out-of-network ATM also jumped to a record high of $4.73. If you are using ATMs a lot, you should consider finding a banking network that is convenient for you to avoid the high ATM fees. I was also shocked to see in a Bankrate survey that 27% of checking account holders are regularly hit with fees, which can add up to an average of $24 per month, or $288 per year. There are many different banking options where you can efficiently use a checking account and avoid these fees. Many banks also waive these fees if you use direct deposit or maintain a certain balance. It is just silly to waste money on unnecessary fees. Make sure you understand your banking relationship and any fees that may be associated with it. Investing Fluctuations From time to time I hear from potential clients that they are afraid to invest because of the crazy times we are in. Many times, this has to do with the political landscape. I tell them that US politics has always been messy and crazy. I have included some examples you may remember, the others you will have to check the history book. During the mid-1960s through the mid-1970s the country was divided over civil rights. Remember in 1965 when Watts went up in flames? Or in the 1970s when the national guard killed four students at Kent State? This led to protests at 350 campuses, involving an estimated two million people. Also, you can't forget when thirty-five thousand antiwar protesters assaulted the Pentagon in October 1967. The early 70's was a crazy period to say the least as the U.S. experienced more than 2,500 domestic bombings in 18 months from 1971-72. Going back further, will require the history book but in 1888 Republicans won the White House, held the Senate and held the House but just by four people. During a floor vote if more than four Republicans were missing, House Democrats would demand a roll call and refuse to answer when their names were called. The measure would fail because there was the lack of a quorum. This kept the House from acting for months. In 1838 Whig William Graves of Kentucky shot and killed Democratic Rep Jonathan Cilley of Maine in a duel over charges of corruption. In 1824 Andrew Jackson led the four-way presidential race with 41% of the popular vote and carried 11 states but with 99 electoral votes came up 33 short of a majority. The contest went to the house where each delegate had one vote and they seated John Quincy Adams even though he was the runner up with 84 electoral votes. For the next four years, Andrew Jackson condemned the corrupt process and said it deprived the people of their right to a free election. In the next presidential election in 1828, Andrew Jackson defeated John Quincy Adams. These are just some examples of the craziness our country has been through. Unfortunately, crazy times will continue but ultimately good businesses will continue to survive and thrive. That is why I tell people to ignore the noise and focus on the businesses in your portfolio. Financial Planning: IRMAA There is a tax for over 5 million Americans known as IRMAA, which stands for Income-Related Monthly Adjusted Amount. It applies to Medicare Part B and Part D premiums for single filers over $97,000 and joint filers above $194,000 of income and can increase annual costs by thousands. This is in addition to the .9% tax on earned income and 3.8% tax on investment income for single filers above $200k and joint filers above $250k of income. In some cases, IRMAA can be appealed if income has reduced due to marriage, divorce, death of spouse, or reduction of work or income, but this can be difficult and time consuming so it is necessary to stay diligent. The most common income sources that trigger IRMAA are capital gains or Required Minimum Distributions from retirement accounts, so it is important to plan out your retirement income ahead of time to reduce not only federal and state taxes, but IRMAA as well.

Candor's patented automated underwriting decision engine, CogniTech™, is a state-of-the-art, 100% machine platform that can handle infinite loan scenarios.  The portability allows clients to plug in the technology wherever an underwrite happens during the loan lifecycle, from point of sale to servicing. Clients can instantly scale to match loan volumes, improve quality to mitigate repurchase risk, & boost liquidity. Candor Can Do

Walk through NFP with ICT live. visual notes for this discussion: link (there is a bit of silence at the beginning) audio download: original, shortened

U.S. stocks declined to close out a choppy trading session, adding to weekly losses that followed this week's hawkish Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. 

Employers added more jobs in January than expected, while the unemployment rate fell to a 53-year low, underscoring the resilience of the labor market despite the Fed's aggressive tightening campaign. ⁣ Nonfarm payrolls increased 517,000 last month after an upwardly revised 260,000 gain in December. The figure beat all estimates from economists, who called for a 188,000 gain in payrolls. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.4%, the lowest since May 1969, and average hourly earnings grew at steady pace.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news, and determine the effect this will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss ARK Investment Management CEO Cathie Wood's comments that ARK is "the new Nasdaq," adding that her flagship fund now gives investors better exposure to long-term innovation than most of the market's most popular growth stock benchmarks.Chris and Saied look at a report stating that benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hit four-week highs after the recent employment numbers raised expectations that the Fed's rate hikes will not end with a hard economic landing, and that the U.S. central bank may have more than one more rate increase left.They also offer some thoughts on Blackstone's plans to ramp up evictions to help its struggling real estate investment trust.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You'll Learn in this Show:Why wages aren't keeping up with inflation, and what the next stage of the Fed's pivot might look like.Why the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange is temporarily suspending deposits and withdrawals of US dollars.Why FTX debtors are calling on politicians, parties and PACs to return tens of millions in campaign contributions.The definition of a depreciation amortization benefit.And so much more...Resources:"US adds 517,000 jobs in January, far exceeding economists forecasts" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"Jobs Report Tells Markets What Fed Chairman Powell Tried to Tell Them" (article from Barron's)"A New Supercycle Is Starting, Says This Macro Strategist. How to Invest." (article from Barron's)"Cathie Wood says AARK is "the new Nasdaq" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"Binance to Suspend US Dollar Transfers Using Bank Accounts" (article from Bloomberg)"TREASURIES-Yields hit four-week highs, Fed expected to hike above 5%" (article from Yahoo! Finance)"Blackstone ramps up tenant evictions" (TheRealDeal via Instagram)

Nonfarm payrolls report to provide insight into inflation, Fed policy. Raytheon (RTX) exploring $1B sale of actuation business - report. ChatGPT creator OpenAi in talks for tender offer at $29B valuation - report. Boeing's (BA) safety procedures face review by a new FAA panel.

ICT tells us why he does not trade NFP, and why you shouldn't either. You should pay attention to this advice. audio download: original, shortened

Last week the payroll and unemployment numbers came out. They surprised to the upside but does the Fed really want people to lose their jobs? How are the unemployment numbers calculated? And an under the radar demographic trend on working age population. Plus, the 2023-year end S&P 500 Index targets are coming out and they are bearish!     What are investment banks 2023-year end S&P 500 Index price targets? How do the 2023 targets compare to last year's year end 2022 targets? How wrong were they and will they be wrong again? Are S&P 500 market predictions too bearish and is that good from a contrarian standpoint? What do the unemployment and payroll numbers mean? What's going on with demographics that working age population is trending lower? Labor force participation rate Unemployment rate Working age population     Mentioned in this Episode:   Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker   Nonfarm payrolls https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS   Household employment survey employment level https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CE16OV   Labor force participation rate https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART   Working age population https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LFWA64TTUSM647S#0   Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com

Nonfarm payroll growth slowed to 263,000 in September, in line with expectations, even as the U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5% from 3.7%. Combined with the relatively slow pace of firings, the Federal Reserve has all the data it needs to proceed with another 75-basis-point rate hike in November. But, as Peter Boockvar notes, the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims are lagging indicators. “My issue with the Fed,” notes Boockvar, “remains that after over-medicating us over the past few years that now shock therapy is overkill.” Boockvar joins Maggie Lake for today's Daily Briefing to talk about how far the Fed will go to get what it wants. We also share a sneak preview of a conversation between Julia Pollak, the chief economist at ZipRecruiter, and Maggie Lake about how the U.S. labor market has changed in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nonfarm payrolls expected to edge down in September jobs report. Cannabis multi-state operators soar as Biden calls for marijuana federal scheduling review. Judge pauses Twitter-Musk trial to allow for closing. Catch today's WSB article https://seekingalpha.com/wsb. Invest Successfully With Alpha Picks https://seekingalpha.com/alpha-picks/subscribe.

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending August 6th, 2022... the Fed's next move, a mortgage rate rollback for home buyers, and a new all-time high for single-family rents.Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.Economic NewsWe begin with economic news from this past week. Federal Reserve policymakers say they are “nowhere near” the end of their fight against inflation. Four Fed Presidents spoke out on Tuesday, August 2nd, about their resolve to get inflation back down to 2%. San Francisco Fed Chief Mary Daly said that she is currently seeing a 50 basis point rate hike as appropriate in September, but she says: “If we just see inflation roaring ahead undauntedly, the labor market showing no signs of slowing, then we'll be in a different position where a 75-basis-point increase might be more appropriate.” Comments from the other three Fed Presidents were similar. (1)And then there was a screamingly strong jobs report a few days later. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that hiring in July exceeded expectations. Nonfarm payrolls were up 528,000, and the unemployment rate dipped lower, to 3.5%. To put this in perspective, in the years leading up to 2020 when the economy was robust, job creation was closer to 195,000 per month on average.The unemployment rate is now back to its pre-pandemic level. As reported by MarketWatch, it's tied for the lowest level since 1969. (2) Some economists see the strong jobs report as signs that the Federal Reserve will lean toward a more aggressive rate hike in September. KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk said in a CNBC report: “This is hot. For the Fed, this is another 75 basis point hike.” (3)The unemployment report shows a slightly elevated level of new claims. During the last week of July, 260,000 people applied for benefits which is an increase of 6,000 from the week before. The number of continuing claims was also higher by about 48,000. That brings the total number of continuing claims up to about 1.42 million, which is the highest level since April. (4)A new report on home price growth shows that year-over-year prices were up 18.2% in June. On a month-to-month basis, the CoreLogic report says they were up .6% for the 125th consecutive month of higher prices. This is more inflationary news that may convince the Fed to be more aggressive with rate future hikes. However, the report does shows that price growth is slowing down. CoreLogic expects it to drop to 4.3% by next June. (5)Higher home prices also increase homeowner equity. CoreLogic says the average borrower had $280,000 in home equity at the end of the first quarter. That's a gain of about $64,000 over the past year, and a gain of about $125,000 over five years. (6) Those folks expecting a housing crash will have to consider why homeowners with so much equity and low fixed rate mortgage payments would suddenly abandon their homes. Higher home prices are slowing sales, and that's driving up inventory levels, but they are still nowhere they need to be. According to Realtor.com, active listings are about 30% higher than they were a year ago but are less than half of what they were in June of 2019 and about two-thirds of where they were in June of 2020. The good news is that homebuyers have a few more homes to choose from and a little extra time to make a decision, but only a little extra time. The Realtor.com trends report says that homes are spending just ONE extra day on the market compared to last year.(7)New home builders are also experiencing a sales slowdown and higher inventory levels. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, there are more than nine months supply of newly-built homes on the market. However, it can be difficult to gauge new home inventory because many of those homes are experiencing construction delays and not sales delays. (8)Another sign of the housing market slowdown is a sharp drop in construction spending. The Commerce Department reported a 1.1% decrease in June. Private residential construction took the biggest hit. It was down 1.6%. (9) Ironically, the construction of new homes is what's needed to increase supply, yet builders are generally the first to get hit with higher interest rates. A slow down in new home construction could mean continued bidding wars on existing homes in growth markets.Mortgage RatesHome buyers are getting a break right now on their mortgage rates. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dipped below 4% for the week ending August 4th. They dropped 31 basis points to an average of 4.99%. The 15-year dropped 32 points to 4.26%. Freddie Mac's Chief Economist, Sam Khater, says: “Mortgage rates remain volatile due to the tug of war between inflationary pressures and a clear slowdown in economic growth.” (10)You may be wondering why mortgage rates have gone down when the Fed fund rate is going up. Mortgage rates are generally tied to the 10-year Treasury as mortgage backed securities attract the same type of investor. With the Fed raising rates aggressively, big investors are worried it will create a recession, so they seek the safety of bonds and MBS's. These investors also may believe that we've hit a peak in inflation. Otherwise they would invest in inflationary stocks instead of bonds. In other news making headlines... Single-Family Rent GrowthDemand continues to grow for single-family rentals as more and more potential homebuyers are priced out of the market. And that's pushing rents higher. A new report from Yardi Matrix says the average single-family asking rent rose $23 in June, to an all-time high of $2,071. (11)Rent growth is slowing for both single-family and multi-family rentals. The report says that year-over-year single-family rent growth has dropped 90 basis points, to an annual rate of 11.8%.House Approves Remote NotarizationThe U.S. House approved legislation that would make remote online notarizations possible in all 50 states. The bill will make it easier to close a deal without having the notary and the person signing the agreement in the same room. During the pandemic, agents in many states had to arrange for drive-by closings, with social distancing. (12) The pandemic also inspired almost half the states to allow for remote notarizations. The National Association of Realtors pushed for a national bill to support the demand for virtual sales and closings in all 50 states, even though there's less concern now about pandemic-related safety measures. The bill is now pending consideration in the Senate. That's it for today. Check the show notes for links at newsforinvestors.com. I would also like to share some other exciting news. Within the last few weeks, we hit a big milestone for Real Estate News for Investors. It's been six-and-a-half years since our first news podcast, and we have now posted our 1200th show! We are currently posting two or three podcasts a week for real estate professionals. Set your podcast player to have them automatically downloaded, so you don't miss any! And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.Links:1 -https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-02/daly-says-fed-nowhere-near-done-on-curbing-high-infation-rate2 -https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-daly-34-reasonable-place-get-by-year-end-rates-2022-08-03/3 -https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/05/jobs-report-july-2022-528000.html4 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-unemployment-claims-climb-to-260-000-and-stick-near-nine-month-high-11659616784?mod=economy-politics5 -https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-price-insights/6 -https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/podcast-vodcast/oce-monthly/homeowner-equity-reached-record-level-in-early-2022/7 -https://www.realtor.com/research/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-july-30-2022/8 -https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR9 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/construction-spending-fell-sharply-in-june-11659363237?mod=economic-report10 -https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms11 -https://rentalhousingjournal.com/average-rents-rise-to-all-time-high-in-june/?utm_source=Master+Vendors&utm_campaign=a590da3d77-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_07_20_02_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_4780df7d33-a590da3d77-11392877312 -https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2022/07/28/remote-online-notarization-is-one-step-closer

Nonfarm Payrolls can give you a sense of how the US economy is performing, but the data release can also be a source of opportunity for active traders. Errol and Frank use statistics to measure the daily movement in markets like stocks and bonds, and then they apply the results to what could happen on the day of a Nonfarm Payroll event.Frank contends that trying to predict what will happen based off a good or bad number can be very difficult, so he shows Errol how to trade the action that comes out of the results with standard deviations.

Nonfarm Payrolls can give you a sense of how the US economy is performing, but the data release can also be a source of opportunity for active traders. Errol and Frank use statistics to measure the daily movement in markets like stocks and bonds, and then they apply the results to what could happen on the day of a Nonfarm Payroll event.Frank contends that trying to predict what will happen based off a good or bad number can be very difficult, so he shows Errol how to trade the action that comes out of the results with standard deviations.

Nonfarm Payrolls is a monthly measure conducted by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics that highlights how many jobs were created in the last month outside of the farming sector. This number is compared to a projection committed by financial analysts, and its relation to that expected value can cause the market to shift. Errol and Frank give examples of how a better-than-expected number might affect the stock market, and they talk about what a Nonfarm number that misses expectations might do.Get ready for the next Nonfarm Payrolls number with this quick explainer with trade strategy around whether the actual number beats or misses expectations.

Nonfarm Payrolls is a monthly measure conducted by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics that highlights how many jobs were created in the last month outside of the farming sector. This number is compared to a projection committed by financial analysts, and its relation to that expected value can cause the market to shift. Errol and Frank give examples of how a better-than-expected number might affect the stock market, and they talk about what a Nonfarm number that misses expectations might do.Get ready for the next Nonfarm Payrolls number with this quick explainer with trade strategy around whether the actual number beats or misses expectations.