Podcasts about nonfarm

Let’s Make a Deal! News Dominated by … SpaceX This week – Fed rate Decision Need a new CTP (SPACEX?) PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Let's Make a Deal! - News Dominated by ... SpaceX - This week - Fed rate Decision - Need a new CTP (SPACEX?) Markets - Another V Formation - Nearing Highs again - IPO Madness - Anthropic and OpenAi - SpaceX IPO - could drain markets - More AI valuations through the roof DEDICATION: Stu Schifter - my good friend of 30 years passed away last night... battled Cancer for 2 years. Market Valuations - S&P 500 Forward P/E = 22.5 - 10-yr average =  19–20x - Long-term average 18-19 - Not cheap, pricing in a lot of earnings growth. - NASDAQ 100 forward P/E =  23-24 - 1-yr average   ~23x - 20-yr average  ~20–21x - Not screaming expensive on a forward basis - - NOTE: Training P/E = 33-40 NEW Playbook - But the Rumor and Buy the News - used to be Buy the Rumor and Sell the News - This is why there is an announcement about something and then a date to follow.... - Monday = Deal, Friday = signing On that note - What is the deal anyway? - Seems that we  (USA) moving out our navy before the final - Straights of Hormuz opening -?? - Has anyone seen the text? - We are no better than we were before all this started... Headline Nonsense - Fox Business: Beware the ticking time bomb hiding in your 401(k) - Required minimum distributions can trigger taxes on Social Security benefits and boost Medicare premiums - This is not a ticking time bomb. This is just reality when you have a lot saved and need to start withdrawals - HOWEVER - there are ways around this and we have helped clients with this. - - Listeners - if you have a 401k and think that you will be paying too much later on - we can take a look at the options... More Retirement Alerts - Social Security running out again.... - Less that 10 year until the reserves are exhausted - The Social Security Administration's newly released 2026 Trustees Report confirms that the federal retirement safety net is less than seven years away from fiscal depletion, as the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will completely exhaust its accumulated reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032. - Once the reserve dries up, ongoing tax revenues will cover only 78% of scheduled retirement benefits, according to the report. - Some of the blame is being laid on the OBBBA with higher standard deductions and lower taxes on SS Benefits - "The OBBBA also adds a temporary additional standard deduction for taxpayers over age 65," it says. "As a result, less income tax will be paid on Social Security benefits, and the OASI and DI Trust Funds will receive lower levels of revenue in the future from income taxation of Social Security benefits." PSA - The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has classified a recall of more than 900 cases of Alfredo sauce at its highest risk level after a supplier recalled a dry milk powder ingredient used in the product due to potential salmonella contamination. - The FDA designated the recall as a Class I event, its most serious classification, meaning there is a reasonable probability that use of or exposure to the product could cause serious adverse health consequences or death. - The Coffee Connexion Co., Inc. - According to the FDA, the product was distributed in Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming. Monday Markets - 5:45PM Sunday night we see an announcement that there is a Deal! - Why 5:45PM???????? - Futures rally, oil drops - This is just days after the market already surged after a Truth Social post last Thursday that said that the US will "soon" sign a deal with IRAN ---- That pushed up markets quite a bit too - Buy the rumor and buy the news... Reality Check - Thursday: Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that “we have a deal that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.” - Monday: 60-day period delay to continue discussions of nuclear issues - Is there a sucker in all of this? $ for IRAN - Supposedly there i some deal... - A $300 billion private fund designed ?to trigger investment into Iran is outlined in the U.S.-Iran framework agreement and more than half that sum has already been committed, a source with ?direct knowledge of the deal told Reuters. - The fund is designed to give both sides an economic incentive to conclude a final deal, said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the plan has not yet been announced as Washington and Tehran prepare to sign on Friday. SpaceX - IPO - Finally! $135 per share - Rose to $160+/- on the debut day - Rather smooth process and very orderly - A total of $85B was raised - due to an add-on additional green-shoe that was allowed ($10B) for institutions. - Rose another $20% on Monday - Retail got about 20% of the deal (down from 30%) Oracle - Oracle Corp. shares declined after the company reported quarterly capital expenses that were higher than estimates, raising investor concerns about the profitability of the AI infrastructure business. - The company expects to spend about $70 billion on net capital expenditures in the current fiscal year, and plans to raise another $40 billion in equity and debt. - Oracle's cloud infrastructure business gained 93% to $5.8 billion, and total cloud revenue is projected to jump about 61% in the quarter ending in August. - The increase of $5B over the course of the year was disconcerting to investors. - Shares dropped the most in over 6 months on the news CPI and PPI - May CPI was mixed but generally cooler on the core reading, with headline CPI up 0.5% month-over-month, matching consensus, while Core CPI rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% consensus and below Briefing's 0.4% estimate. - The softer core CPI reading suggests some easing in underlying consumer inflation pressures, which is the more constructive part of the inflation picture. - May PPI was firmer than expected on the headline reading, with PPI up 1.1% versus 0.7% consensus and 0.8% Briefing estimate, matching the prior month's revised 1.1% pace. - Core PPI rose 0.4%, matching consensus and coming in below the prior month's revised 0.7%, indicating wholesale inflation remained elevated but did not accelerate further on the core measure. - Taken together, the CPI and PPI reports point to a mixed inflation backdrop: consumer-level core inflation looked somewhat better, but producer-level price pressures remained sticky. Cyberdyne - Anthropic announced Claude Fable 5, a Mythos-class model that will be available to its enterprise customers and paid subscribers. - The company unveiled Mythos in April and has limited the rollout because of its advanced cybersecurity capabilities. - Anthropic said Claude Fable 5?s broad release is possible because of new safeguards that block responses in specific high-risk areas. - WAIT! The US government PULLED the plug on Mythos and Fable for any foreign national - From Anthropic - The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Anthropic models will not be affected. OpenAi - Confidentially flies for IPO - Sends financials and IPO materials to regulators - making sue all in good order. - This allows the company to iron out accounting, compliance, and regulatory issues in private without triggering a "media circus" or alerting competitors to their financials Last Friday..... - Nonfarm payrolls jumped a seasonally adjusted 172,000 for the period, down slightly from the upwardly revised 179,000 in April and far above the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 80,000. - The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected. - Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month and were up 3.4% over the past year, both in line with the Wall Street consensus. Screwworm - The New World screwworm has been detected in a 3-week-old calf in Zavala County, Texas, the first known case of that fly in the United States since 2017. - New World screwworm larvae “burrow into the flesh of living animals, causing serious damage to livestock and economic losses,” the U.S. Department of Agriculture said. - The USDA and Texas officials are taking immediate action to contain and eradicate the pest. - In December, the Food and Drug Administration granted conditional approval to the topical solution Exzolt Cattle-CA1, which is used to prevent and treat New World screwworm infestations and is produced by Merck & Co. - What is going to happen to beef prices? Real Estate - Nationwide, 5.8% of all home listings were pulled off the market in April, according to Redfin. - Delistings were up 3.8% compared with March. - Atlanta saw the highest share of homes come off the market in April, with 1 in 10 delisted. San Jose, California, followed with roughly 9% pulled, then Los Angeles (7.8%), Dallas (7.8%) and Seattle (7.7%).  In other news.... - The Japanese city of Utsunomiya has suspended all 94 of the primary and middle schools ?that it operates on Monday after its ?first-ever bear sighting, a municipal official said. - The city of half-a-million residents about 100 km (60 miles) north of Tokyo said ?the bear was first seen in a residential ?area near a park on Saturday evening. It ?remains at large after the last sighting early ?Monday morning about half a kilometre from a ?middle school.   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); The Winner for the THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SALESFORCE (CRM)   Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

While jobs data is prevalent in coming days, earnings from chip giant Broadcom on Wednesday keep tech in focus, too. Nonfarm payrolls loom Friday, and Nvidia's Huang speaks today. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The {securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. For illustrative purpose(s) only. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please seeschwab.com/indexdefinitions. The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument. Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research. The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC. Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB. (0130-0626) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

George Mason University economist Don Boudreaux took the stage at the Economic Club of Minnesota on May 11, 2026, as a myth-buster with a simple but powerful challenge: compared to what? In his presentation on Trump's second-term tariffs, Boudreaux cut through the political noise by stacking 2025's economic performance against hard benchmarks, including 2024 and Trump's own first term in 2017. The numbers told a sobering story. Nonfarm employment grew at just 0.5% in 2025 versus 1.6% in 2017, manufacturing employment actually declined, unemployment rose, and all three major stock indices trailed their 2017 post-election performance.  Boudreaux also shed light on a broader truth that rarely makes headlines: by historical standards, American households are dramatically better off than they were decades ago, with real net worth 80% higher than in 2001 and more than double what it was in 1994. His message was clear and grounded in evidence rather than ideology. Whether tariffs get credit or blame, the facts demand more than talking points. For an audience of Minnesota business leaders, policymakers, and students, Boudreaux delivered exactly what the Economic Club is known for: a speaker who moves the conversation well beyond the soundbites. 

Take 2 Podcast, Friday, April 10, 2026 Heidi Hatch with Maura Carabello of Exoro Group and Utah House Speaker Mike Schultz. Vice President JD Vance is set to lead ceasefire talks this weekend, as tensions tied to a potential conflict with Iran continue. There are ongoing questions about whether a ceasefire will hold and if the Strait of Hormuz will remain open. Gas prices in Utah are now higher than the national average, $4.26 compared to $4.16. Lawmakers are also discussing how the state's gas tax bill works and what it means for drivers. As the legislative session wraps, the group looks at highlights and lowlights, including early fundraising in Utah's newly redrawn congressional districts and the latest update on efforts to repeal Proposition 4. President Donald Trump is requesting $1 billion to restore and protect the Great Salt Lake, bringing renewed attention to the lake's decline and long-term environmental concerns. Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson is urging the Department of Homeland Security to abandon a proposed detention center in Salt Lake City. In an April 6 letter, she raised concerns about the plan, as questions remain about whether DHS can back out after already purchasing the site. Utah's job market continues to grow. Nonfarm payroll employment increased an estimated 0.6% over the past 12 months as of January 2026. A Utah Valley University commencement decision is drawing more attention. The selection of Sharon McMahon as speaker is facing criticism, with College Republicans speaking out against the choice.   Photo Courtesy: Jackson Murphy

A series of key jobs reports could take focus off of geopolitics and oil at least somewhat in a week shortened by the Good Friday holiday. Nonfarm payrolls is due Friday. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions. The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment. Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument. Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here. The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC. Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB. (0131-0326) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, we discuss the war in Iran and a run of discouraging economic data, including falling payrolls, rising inflation and a downward revision to fourth quarter GDP. The most dramatic market development was in oil. Prices surged to $120 per barrel early Monday before plunging to $90 by Monday afternoon, the largest decline on record. The fall followed comments from President Trump suggesting the conflict would soon end. Yet the administration later walked back those remarks, leaving oil trading near $100 by the end of the week. The turbulence in energy markets arrives at an awkward moment for the economy. Signs of stagflation appear to be intensifying. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February, marking the third decline in the past five months. At the same time inflation remains stubborn. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure, rose 0.4 percent month over month in January after a similar increase in December. With energy prices rising sharply in recent weeks, the March reading is likely to come in even higher. The growth picture is weakening as well. Fourth quarter GDP was revised down to 0.7 percent from an initial estimate of 1.4 percent, a revision that underscores the increasingly fragile state of the economy. Taken together, the combination of softer growth, falling employment, and persistent inflation may complicate the Federal Reserve's plans to begin cutting interest rates and tip the economy into recession.

Send a textDollar rebounds as Middle East war rages. Nonfarm payrolls on tap asinvestors scale back Fed cut bets. WTI crude rallies above $80 per barrel,gold remains subdued. Wall Street slips as risk aversion intensifies.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Kevin Gordon with Charles Schwab says certain downward revisions in the nonfarm payrolls print is nothing to be concerned about. He believes the metrics overall point to a stronger-than-expected economy. On the international front, Michelle Gibley explains how a weaker U.S. dollar set the stage for outperformance in stocks outside the U.S. Following Japan's recent election, she urges investors to mind headwinds of balancing a strong yen to earnings. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Futures stretch into the green on both sides of the Atlantic as investors await a crucial U.S. non-farm payrolls print with the White House aiming to temper expectations. Dutch brewing giant Heineken announces it will be slashing thousands of jibs in the next two years and it has lowered its FY growth forecast after weak demand for its beers. German lender Commerzbank enjoys a Q4 beat on the top and bottom line and expects net profit for the year to top expectations. CEO Bettina Orlopp tells CNBC the bank is always open to renewed interest from Unicredit. On Wall Street, shares in U.S. financial stocks plunge following the unveiling of Altruist's new A.I.-powered tax planning tool. We hear from Anthoropic's CCO Paul Smith who says his company is set on extracting real value from A.I.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

What the recent changes in Venezuela means for consumers Without getting into the benefits of less drugs coming into our country, there are economic benefits from the large amount of oil reserves that are in the ground of Venezuela. The current daily consumption worldwide of oil is about 100 million barrels per day. Venezuela has in their ground over 300 billion barrels of oil. That alone would keep the world supplied for over eight years. Venezuela has the highest proven reserves in the world even above Saudi Arabia. Venezuela accounts for about 20% of the world supply of oil. Venezuela has four times the reserves compared to the US, yet in 2024 the United States produced over 13 million barrels per day compared to Venezuela producing under 1 million barrels per day. There is talk that the big oil companies could be going into Venezuela and they could definitely increase that production by a large amount, which would benefit not just Venezuela but also the world markets and the United States consumer. The way the United States consumer would benefit is from lower gas prices at the pump and with oil currently trading in the high 50s, we could see that drop to the low 50s maybe even a little bit below that. This will not only put more money in US consumers' pockets, but it would also help the Venezuela population as the production of oil would create many good paying jobs and could lead to a ripple effect for other businesses with more money coming into their economy. The recent events occurred just a few days ago and a lot has yet to be played out, but make no mistake there are many benefits if Venezuela can produce a lot more oil for the world.   It's a new year, is it time to hire or change to a new investment advisor? With the new year, investors should take a look to see how their investments have done and how their investment advisor has been working with them. The beginning of the year is a fresh start, so it's time to see what your percentage return was on your portfolio in 2025 and evaluate if your advisor kept you updated and gave you the customer service you need like returning your phone calls in a reasonable timeframe. You don't want to jump from the pan into the fire, so when you're looking for a new investment advisor, be sure that the company and the advisor are full fiduciaries, which means they must do what is best for you, not what is best for themselves. Ask yourself the question, is the advisor trying to sell me products that he or she makes a big commission off of? That could be a red flag that they don't have your best interest in mind. It's also important to understand the investment strategy the firm and the advisor use. Do they use mutual funds or build your own portfolio with individual equities and investments that are liquid and don't tie your money up for years to come in case the investment underperforms. I always believe it is worth asking the advisor how they manage their own personal portfolio. If it's good enough for them, why is it not good enough for you? I know some advisors will say they have different objectives, but I think everyone has the same objective of making a reasonable return on their investments. And lastly, don't be afraid to ask how they get paid when managing your investments. It may seem like an uncomfortable question, but if it's an excessive amount, that can be a red flag. If the advisor is trying to dodge the question, that means to me, they're trying to hide something from you at the very beginning, and you should runaway immediately. Take your time to find the right advisor, if you feel pressure from constant phone calls and high sales tactics, you probably want to look for someone else to work with on your investments.   The labor market ends the year on a soft note This jobs report was special considering it was the first on time report in 3 months, but I'd say the data was lackluster. Nonfarm payrolls in December increased by 50,000, which was short of the estimate of 76,000. The two prior months also saw downward revisions that totaled 76,000. For the full year, payroll employment grew by 584,000, which equates to a monthly average of about 49,000 new jobs per month. This was less than 2024's gain of 2 million jobs or about 168,000 per month and actually registers as the worst payroll growth outside of a recession since 2003. While this all might sound troubling, it is important to remember that changes to government jobs had a large impact on the data. Since reaching a peak in January, government employment fell by 277,000 jobs. This obviously created a huge headwind for headline payroll growth. With that said, the labor market was still in a slower growth environment, and I continue to believe that will be the case as we move forward considering the unemployment rate still remains healthy at 4.4%. It's also important to remember that of those counted as unemployed, about 26% or 1.9 million people are considered long-term unemployed as they have been jobless for 27 weeks or more. I always do wonder how actively these people are looking for jobs. In terms of areas of strength in the report, both healthcare and foodservices and drinking places remained healthy. Health care employment was up 21,000 in the month and for the full year averaged monthly gains of 34,000. This was down from 2024's monthly average of 56,000, but still strong. Foodservices and drinking places saw employment grow by 27,000 jobs in the month and for the full year averaged monthly gains of 12,000 jobs, which was similar to 2024's average of 11,000 jobs added per month. Retail trade was the real headwind for the month as employment declined by 25,000 jobs. This could be due to seasonal changes, but it was interesting to see retail trade employment showed little net change in both 2024 and 2025. The other major industries in the report showed little to no changes in the month. Overall, I believe this continues to show that we remain in a slow hire/low fire labor environment and I don't see much evidence that will change this year.    Financial Planning: Mortgage-Backed Security Purchase Lowers Mortgage Rates The U.S. government's announcement of a $200 billion purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is already pushing 30-year mortgage rates below 6%, creating an opportunity for homeowners and prospective buyers. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and also purchased MBS, which helped push mortgage rates down.  Mortgage rates are not directly tied to the Federal Reserve interest rates, but the purchase of mortgage-backed securities is something that would directly lower mortgage rates. This is because investors purchase mortgages after origination for the interest income paid by homeowners, so Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buying these securities increases demand which lowers the interest rates borrowers get on mortgages. For those with higher mortgage rates, this could be an opportunity to cut that down.  I don't think we are yet at a point where it makes sense to buy down the rates further, but there is no limit to the number of refinances someone can do.   It may be best to refinance now and then again in another year or so.   Companies Discussed: Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN), Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT), Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) & Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX)

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Nonfarm Payroll e Ata do Copom agitam os negócios. Tarcísio de Freitas no foco do mercado.

US Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer reacts to the "solid" September jobs report and says the Federal Reserve needs to cut rates again. Nonfarm payrolls increased 119,000 after the prior month was revised lower, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, and the unemployment rate ticked up to an almost four-year high of 4.4% as the labor force grew. She speaks with Bloomberg's Matt Miller and Dani Burger. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mercado ainda digere Nonfarm Payroll. No Brasil, em semana de julgamento de Bolsonaro, Tarcísio eleva o tom.

Nonfarm Payroll movimenta os mercados. No Brasil, sessão antecede o 7 de setembro.

This week on Inside the Economy, we take a closer look at key developments in the labor market, housing, and energy. Nonfarm employment growth in the U.S. continues to slow. Are we seeing a return to pre-pandemic norms, or is something else driving this trend? Delinquencies are rising among upper income borrowers. How does this compare to lower income households, and could it point to broader representation of which jobs are not hiring? Federal Government employment is also declining. Which jobs are being impacted more and is it impacting public services offered by the government? On the corporate side, earnings have generally been strong, and markets appear to be adjusting in response to those results. What was the only sector to score negative earnings growth? Lastly, electricity costs are up approximately 15-20%. This is not due to electric vehicles or auto manufacturers, but instead a new source of demand that is straining the grid. What is fueling this surge? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: • U.S. GDP growth rate at 3.0% in Q1 • Federal Employment in July at 2.9M • European Union's share of total U.S. Imports at 20.2% from January to May 2025

This week on Inside the Economy, we take a closer look at key developments in the labor market, housing, and energy. Nonfarm employment growth in the U.S. continues to slow. Are we seeing a return to pre-pandemic norms, or is something else driving this trend? Delinquencies are rising among upper income borrowers. How does this compare to lower income households, and could it point to broader representation of which jobs are not hiring? Federal Government employment is also declining. Which jobs are being impacted more and is it impacting public services offered by the government? On the corporate side, earnings have generally been strong, and markets appear to be adjusting in response to those results. What was the only sector to score negative earnings growth? Lastly, electricity costs are up approximately 15-20%. This is not due to electric vehicles or auto manufacturers, but instead a new source of demand that is straining the grid. What is fueling this surge? Tune in to learn more! Key Takeaways: S. GDP growth rate at 3.0% in Q1 Federal Employment in July at 2.9M European Union's share of total U.S. Imports at 20.2% from January to May 2025

Will it show big DOGE Federal job cuts?

Can we get this election over with already? Markets pricing in a perfect gridlock scenario. Earnings season rolling along - good and bad news for stocks. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter DONATIONS ? OHHH - the new shirt design is coming along... Warm-Up - Yields - Highest in months - ahead of Fed decision (tomorrow) - Drones - will they deliver? - October ends on a down note Markets - Optimism (Hysteria) ahead of (final) Election results - Oil on the move again - Middle East tensions - Mixed results from earnings - but still a generally good look for the main players - What does Berkshire know? - Big DJIA Announcement AH - Chili Competition this weekend - reining champion - have to defend the title... Employment Situation - ADP said private companies hired 233,000 new workers in the month, better than the upwardly revised 159,000 in September and far ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for 113,000. - Nonfarm payrolls were up just 12,000 in October (Briefing.com consensus 120,000) - Nonfarm private payrolls decreased by 28,000 (Briefing.com consensus 105,000) -- These numbers were depressed by the Boeing strike and likely by the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, yet with forecasts suggesting those influences could lop off something on the order of 100,000 positions, the view to October, coupled with sizable downward revisions to the August and September payroll figures, connotes softness in hiring activity. - Unemployment rate stood at 4.1% - no change US GDP - Gross domestic product increased at a 2.8% annualized rate in the third quarter, below the 3.1% estimate and the 3.0% reading Q2. - Consumer spending and federal government outlays were two of the biggest contributors to GDP growth. - The release comes with the Federal Reserve poised to lower interest rates further despite the seemingly strong economy and inflation that remains above target. Palantir Earnings -Back-to-back quarters delivered beats on its top and bottom lines in Q3 and forecasted upbeat Q4 revenue figures. - PLTR's top line continued to accelerate, advancing by 30% yr/yr to $725.52 mln, supporting its improving profitability, with non-GAAP EPS expanding by 43% yr/yr to $0.10. Total customer count continued to grow nicely, up 39% yr/yr and 6% sequentially to 629. - U.S. government revenue has been ramping up in recent quarters. However, in Q3, the segment took a giant step forward, growing revs by 40% yr/yr and 15% sequentially to $320 mln, a seven-fold increase compared to the prior year and the best growth rate over the past 15 quarters. - The commercial side was the showcase in Q3. Like U.S. government, U.S. commercial revs shifted into a higher gear, registering 54% growth yr/yr, up from the +33% delivered last quarter, to $179 mln AMD Earnings - Just not good enough - AMD reported third-quarter results on Tuesday, with earnings in line with forecasts and revenue that slightly beat expectations. - Here's how the company did, compared to LSEG estimates for the quarter ending Sept. 28: - Earnings per share: 92 cents adjusted vs. 92 cents expected - Revenue: $6.82 billion vs. $6.71 billion expected - AMD said its important data center business doubled in sales for the second quarter in a row, but overall revenue guidance for the fourth quarter was in line with consensus expectations. - Stock down Microsoft Earnings - Microsoft's revenue grew 16% in its fiscal first quarter, faster than analysts had anticipated. - Revenue from Azure and other cloud services was up 33%, surpassing estimates. - Guidance for revenue growth fell short of expectations. Amazon Earnings

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

Last week's payroll report showed: Nonfarm payrolls surging by 254,000 in September, up from a revised 159,000 in August and better than the 150,000 Dow Jones consensus forecast. The unemployment rate falling to 4.1%, down 0.1%, as the survey of household employment showed an even stronger picture, with a gain of 430,000. Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% on the month and were up 4% from a year ago. Both figures were ahead of respective estimates. And this weekend, Goldman Sachs lowered their odds of a recession to just 15%, meaning there's no better chance of a recession now than there is under any other normal circumstances. This might all seem like GOOD news, and it is for the country at large. But those of us in the mortgage world, see things a bit differently. Good news for jobs, payrolls, and recession risk is BAD news for those of you hoping for lower interest rates. As a result, mortgage rates are higher today vs. just a week ago and lots of people have been sitting on the sidelines watching rates drop and holding off on their purchases and refinances because they were expecting rates to drop further. Here at Townstone, we don't pretend to be fortune tellers, but we have been advising our clients to lock-in over the past few weeks knowing that rates are never guaranteed to go down. The one thing we WILL promise you: complete transparency on your next mortgage transaction. The best possible rate at any given time in the market. The lowest closing costs. The best mortgage process and customer service in the country. We've been doing this for over 22 years and our results speak for themselves. Fill out your request for a FREE consultation today at: www.townstone.com

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyGoogleTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Hey there! Welcome to today's market update. Here's what's been happening:

Gold closed the week at $2,442 (up $56) and silver at $28.54 (up $0.64). Terrible jobs numbers this week struck fear in the markets and in the Fed. As recession warnings flash, precious metals are up. Could they go even higher soon? OTHER TOPICS DISCUSSED -VIX Fear gague spikes above 30 -Intel down 30% and ready to cut 15,000+ jobs -Olympics pistol shooting -Fed keeps interest rates unchanged at 5.25% - 5.50% -Nonfarm payroll at 114k jobs vs. 176k expected -Trump and SEC chairman Gary Gensler Quote of the Week: In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine." -Benjamin Graham The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week's economic precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms. The links are below. SchiffGold on Instagram: www.instagram.com/schiffgoldnews SchiffGold on Twitter: twitter.com/SchiffGold SchiffGold on Facebook: www.facebook.com/schiffgold SchiffGold's website: www.schiffgold.com

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 in June — broadly in line with expectations — while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%. Does this spell good news for the Fed? Join Mike Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist, and Phoebe White, Head of U.S. Inflation Strategy, as they discuss the implications for rate cuts, the health of the consumer, corporate balance sheets and more. This episode was recorded on July 8, 2024.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please read JP Morgan research reports related to it's contents for more information including important disclosures. Copyright 2024 JP Morgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Largest US Banks  I continue to remain optimistic about investing in the large financials, specifically the money center banks. For the most part they trade at good valuations and the recent stress test shows they remain healthy. All 31 of the largest US banks passed the Federal Reserve's annual stress test, which provided a hypothetical scenario where unemployment levels rose to 10%, commercial real estate values decreased by 40% and housing prices fell by 36%. Following the results, the banks released plans to buyback stock and increase dividends. JPMorgan increased its dividend 8.7% and authorized a new $30 B share repurchase program. Jamie Dimon noted the dividend increase marked the second this year for JPM. Citigroup raised its dividend 5.7% and said it would continue to assess share repurchases. Bank of America increased its dividend 8%, but made no mention of share repurchases. Wells Fargo increased its dividend 14% and said it has the capacity to buy back common stock over the four-quarter period starting Q3 2024 through Q2 2025. You likely won't see these stocks double over the next 12 months, but I believe many of them over the next few years could produce sound returns of around 10% when including dividends.   Jobs Report The labor market continues to soften, which should be a positive for Fed rate cuts. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 in the month of June, which was better than the 200,000 estimate but less than the downwardly revised gain of 218,000 in the month of May. Combined, nonfarm payrolls in April and May were reduced by 111,000. Looking under the hood, the report was even weaker than the headline number indicated considering government was the second largest contributor adding 70K jobs in the month. Health care and social assistance continued to lead the way as the sectors added 82.4K jobs and construction was strong as well as it added 27K jobs. Areas of weakness included manufacturing (-8K), retail trade (-8.5k), and professional and business services (-17K). Wage gains also continued to soften as average hourly earnings were up 3.9% year over year. This was below last month's reading of 4.1% and is well below the high in 2022 of 5.9%. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.1%, which tied the highest level since October 2021. Part of the increase in the unemployment rate came from a 0.1 percentage point increase in the labor force participation rate to 62.6%. The so-called prime age rate, which focuses on those between ages 25 and 54, rose to 83.7%, its highest in more than 22 years. While a lot of this report may sound negative, it is important to remember that the labor market is softening from a very strong level. We also need to see the labor market soften to give the Fed more confidence in their ability to cut interest rates. I would say this report was very positive considering it achieved the goal of softening without being damaging. We should keep an eye on the reports moving forward to make sure the labor market doesn't fall off a cliff, but as of right now I don't see that happening.    Labor Market In the recent JOLTs report, job openings showed the labor market continues to soften but to a healthy level. Openings stood at 8.1 million in the month of May, which was an increase from 7.9 million in April. While openings have fallen from a record of around 12 million in 2022, they are still above prepandemic levels when they were tracking at just under 7 million. The report showed the number of job openings for each employed worker remained at 1.2. This is below the peak of 2.0 in 2022, but it is right around prepandemic levels. I would not be surprised if we continue to see the labor market soften even a little further. I believe this would be healthy for the economy as it would create a more balanced labor market between employers and employees.   Risky Investing I'm very concerned that the bar on risk taking in investing continues to rise. We are already dealing with craziness like GameStop, Roaring Kitty, cryptocurrencies with no real value, and technology companies that have expectations that the earnings will continue to go to the moon. Now add to that list what is known as “zero days to expiration” better known as 0DTE options. These options currently account for nearly half of the daily volume of the S&P 500 index options, more than double the 17% in 2020. These are simply one day options on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100. It is estimated by early 2025 these 0DTE's will be available for individual equities as well. That's unbelievable! There will be sometime in the future that an event will cause wide volatility and many of these gamblers will lose large amounts of money. I'm disappointed that this is being allowed and the SEC and other regulators are letting this happen. I can't believe I'm going to put this in print, but maybe I should send this to Elizabeth Warren. I'm afraid unsuspecting people with money will see on social media some people shouting how they made tens of thousands of dollars one day with small investments. What you won't see is the larger majority of investors losing large sums through this gambling tool. In fact, retail investors lost more than $350,000 on 0DTE options on an average trading day between May 2022 and September 2023. You also won't see the fact that institutional traders with their algorithmic trading and market makers are able to pounce on split second moves, leaving retail investors with the losing crumbs. I'm in hopes sometime down the road we will see these smaller brokerage firms that are pushing the 0DTE's hit with large fines and hopefully forced into bankruptcy. However, in the meantime, these brokerage firms will be bringing in millions and maybe billions of dollars in fees and commissions. There are more portions of the market now that is no longer investing, but more like playing the lottery or gambling and betting on short term movements. In my opinion 0DTE's should be illegal and people gambling like this should lose their money as it is high risk gambling. What concerns me is they will relate it to the stock market and when they lose money they will say the stock market is risky. If you invest in good quality equities and have a time horizon of 3 to 5 years and they have strong fundamentals, stocks are not risky. Unfortunately, many people right now are caught up in the hype and are more into gambling rather than investing.   Financial Planning: Reviewing Mid-Year Income Now that we are half way through the year, it can be helpful to review your income to estimate how you will end up by the end of the year and make some adjustments. Maybe you had some unexpected income like extra capital gains or a bonus or perhaps your business had more sales than you were expecting. These increases in income may push you into a higher tax bracket or trigger income-related surcharges like the net investment income tax or IRMAA. More income is better than less, but if this is the case, now is the time to mitigate the tax hit. If you are still working, it may be helpful to increase retirement contributions or change which accounts you are contributing to. If you are retired, you might want to adjust how much you are withdrawing from accounts or adjust which accounts you are withdrawing from. It may also be necessary to adjust your withholdings or make an estimated tax payment if you have not withheld enough so far to prevent extra penalties and interest for underpayment of taxes. With rising rates, the interest for underpayment of taxes is much higher than in years past. Other tax strategies like Roth conversions are better implement at the end of the year, but making mid-year adjustments can help your annual income end up where it needs to be.   Stocks Discussed: Micron (MU), Whirlpool (WHR), Nike (NKE)

Heather Gayton is a member of the Farmers of The Roche-A-Cri, one of Wisconsin's 47 producer-led watershed groups. She says they're doing something different this year -- reaching out to other environmental groups outside of agriculture. She says inviting them to meetings and farms has helped them build trust, speak each other's language, and mitigate finger-pointing when it comes to improving water quality in the area.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Earning a Ph.D. in financial economics is no small feat. And not only did Garrett DeSimone do just that, but he would unknowingly embark on his future career in the process of doing so. His dissertation from the University of Delaware involved the study of event risk premia in single stocks ahead of earnings. And to perform the analysis he engaged with OptionMetrics, a firm specializing in implied volatility data. Now the Head of Quantitative Research there, Garrett leads the firm's efforts to deliver carefully constructed data sets to its client base, while generating original empirical studies of option pricing and trading strategies. Our discussion considers some of his work, starting with his dissertation and the finding that the earnings event risk premium for single stocks makes straddles punitive to own. We liken this to a more recent phenomenon at the index level – the inflated one-day S&P 500 implied vol levels that have occurred in days before 3 macro events – the CPI, the Nonfarm payrolls report and FOMC meetings. We talk as well about one day options and the risk of a blowup. At least at this point, Garret sees flows that are reasonably mixed, with no obvious risk of instability resulting from positioning. Lastly, we discuss recent work he's done on implied dividends using a novel approach. Relative to years earlier, he finds that there is currently very little risk premium implied in dividends. That is, the market is charging almost nothing for bearing the risk that dividends wind up disappointing on the downside. It's interesting work and a good example of the rich information that can be extracted from derivatives markets. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Garrett DeSimone.

In today's episode, Charu Chanana is back in the studio talking macro and forex with Søren Otto. Last week the closely-watch nonfarm payrolls come out incredibly strong, making it interesting to follow this week's FOMC meeting and CPI print. The two discusses this, as well as European Parliament election, upcoming Bank of Japan meeting and the Indian and Mexican elections. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

According to the April jobs report, the U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling. Nonfarm payrolls were softer than anticipated increasing by 175,000 last month, while the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%. Does this all spell good news for the Fed? Join Mike Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist, and Phoebe White, Head of U.S. Inflation Strategy, as they unpack the latest numbers. This episode was recorded on May 3, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please read JP Morgan research reports related to its contents for more information including important disclosures. Copyright 2023 JP Morgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

This week, we dig into the combination of weak growth and hot consumer price inflation that nobody saw coming in the U.S. GDP report. Our spotlight is focused on Central Bank gold buying. The Week in Review (0:54) — Our take on Q1 GDP, U.S. equities, and the risks in private markets The Week Ahead (8:10) — Nonfarm payrolls will headline a busy week The Spotlight (8:33) — Sustained central bank gold buying keeps our long-term $3,000 target intact For a 30-day free trial of our research, click here: ⁠https://web.rosenbergresearch.com/RosenbergRoundupTrial⁠

March Jobs Report  I must say, I was very surprised by the strength in the March Jobs Report. Nonfarm payrolls increased 303,000 in the month, which easily topped the estimate of 200,000. Unlike prior reports, there wasn't a major change to the previous months as February saw a negative revision of just 5,000 and January's revision brought the total up by 27,000. There were many positives in the report considering the unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.8%, the labor force participation rate actually increased 0.2 percentage points to 62.7%, and average hourly earnings increased 4.1% which was lower than last month's reading of 4.3%. Areas of strength in the economy included health care and social assistance (+81,300), government (+71,000), leisure and hospitality (+49,000), and construction (+39,000). According the BLS, the leisure and hospitality sector is finally now back to its pre-pandemic level. If the economy and labor market continue to remain resilient, I do worry we may not see those three interest rate cuts we have been expecting during the remainder of the year.   JOLTs In the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) it showed there were 8.8 million job openings in February, which pretty much matched expectations and last month's reading. The job market has continued to remain resilient and I do believe that it will need to enter a Goldilocks period where it is not too hot or too cold. Too many job openings may deter the Fed from considering rate cuts and obviously we do not want a weak labor market as that would be bad for the economy.  Stock Market The stock market has gotten off to a strong start and in the first quarter the S&P 500 was up 10.2%, which marked the best first quarter performance since 2019. The Dow and Nasdaq also had good quarters as they were respectively up 5.6% and 9.1% in Q1. In a recent study, it was pointed that of the 16 times the S&P 500 rose 8% or more in the first quarter from 1950 through 2023, only once (1987) did the index lose ground the rest of the year. In the remaining years, the index gained an average of 9.7% over the next three quarters. In 10 of the 15 years the first quarter's gains were higher than those seen over the remainder of the year. While this is bullish for the remainder of the year, I do worry about the concentration of the market. With Nvidia's strong start and large market cap it accounted for close to half of the entire gain for the index. I don't believe this will be able to continue, but I am optimistic that the rally could continue to broaden which would be beneficial to other stocks.  Office Rents Across the country office rents are holding firm and they are higher now than they were back in the fourth quarter of 2019. The average US office rent has an asking price of $35.24 per square foot. This is an increase from $34.92 per square foot in 2019. It is not a high increase, but compared to a lot of the negativity that the media is spreading, it shows office rents as a whole are still doing OK. I would recommend for investors looking into office real estate to really do their due diligence to make sure they are not buying or investing in a declining property. Stocks Discussed: Visa (V), Tesla (TSLA), Disney (DIS) and McCormack (MKC)

JD and Joel discuss gold's new record high and silver's tear upwards, an earthquake in NYC, headline jobs numbers, and Peter's most recent podcast. OTHER TOPICS DISCUSSED -Gold is trading at $2,329 (up $100 on the week) -Silver is trading at $27.46 (up about 10% on the week) -Fed governor Adriana Kugler's dovish comments push gold above $2300) -Nonfarm payrolls come in above expectations (303,000 vs. 200,000) -The recent spike in commodities -Peter Schiff's recent podcast -Alan Greenspan's affinity for Rothbard Quote from Murray Rothbard: It is easy to be conspicuously 'compassionate' if others are being forced to pay the cost.” The SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap podcast combines a succinct summary of the week's economic precious metals news coupled with thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms. The links are below. SchiffGold on Instagram: www.instagram.com/schiffgoldnews SchiffGold on Twitter: twitter.com/SchiffGold SchiffGold on Facebook: www.facebook.com/schiffgold SchiffGold's website: www.schiffgold.com

Nonfarm payrolls, JNJ is buying Shockwave, and Fed talk is heating up. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhalcapital.com/disclosure

US equities ended mostly higher this week with strong outperformance in the Russell 2000 and some minor weakness in the Nasdaq. The market navigated a shortened trading week deprived of any meaningful catalysts with most looking to PCE this Friday and Nonfarm payrolls next Friday. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index beat slightly with consumers noting they were confident inflation will continue to soften, and expect their financial situations to improve over the coming months.

JD and Joel discuss the new all-time highs in gold, Peter's recent podcast, the Fed's next move, and why silver is an especially good deal. OTHER TOPICS DISCUSSED -Gold is trading at $2178 (up $126 on the week) -Silver is trading at $24.30 (up $1.65 on the week) -Last Friday's Fed policy reports warned of risks to the financial sector -Nonfarm payrolls rose 275,000 for the month topping the forecast of 198,000 -CME Fedwatch tool shows significantly increasing expectations of lower interest rates -Peter Schiff's Podcast Quote from Noam Chomsky: The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow very lively debate within that spectrum." SchiffGold on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/schiffgoldnews/ SchiffGold on Twitter: https://twitter.com/SchiffGold SchiffGold on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/schiffgold SchiffGold's website: https://schiffgold.com/

Investec Wealth & Investment Chief Investment Strategist Chris Holdsworth looks at the nonfarm payroll numbers in the US, the latest IMF global growth forecasts and tax data in SA. Investec Focus Radio SA

I will discuss the NFP data that is setting a projection for the year. The data was good for the job market but is this really true with all the layoffs happening in january??According to reports, the U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in January, pointing to lingering strength in the labor market that could bolster the case for the Federal Reserve to delay cutting interest rates. Nonfarm payrolls in the world's largest economy rose by 353,000 last month, increasing from an upwardly revised total of 333,000 in December, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists had called for a reading of 187,000.December's revision -- a sharp uptick from the prior mark of 216,000 -- was the result of an annual benchmarking process as well as seasonal adjustment factors, the BLS said in a statement.Your support is appreciated! https://www.buzzsprout.com/892009/supporters/newhttps://www.buymeacoffee.com/j2oforexyoutube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCHKVHPpjTRD3WbETbar-0QgSupport the show

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, the Nonfarm Payrolls report, the FOMC meeting, and the earnings market. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyCynthia Honcharenko, Director of Portfolio Management George Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:24 – Glancing at the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey summary, about 9 million job requisitions were opened across the U.S., which was, primarily, unchanged from the month prior01:59 – The Employment Situation report shows an unemployment rate of 3.7%, which, essentially, remains unchanged from previous months 02:13 –Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 353,000 for the month of January. Furthermore, as we look at the revised figures for November and December, the data indicates the numbers were revised upwards by 126,00003:10 – Comments on this week's FOMC meeting and the Committee's overall decision to leave the Fed funds rate unchanged at the target range of 5.25% - 5.50%10:45 – As the earnings market experiences one of the two biggest weeks of companies reporting, we hear comments about the overall S&P 500 index 15:16 – Considering the FOMC meeting, it appears that The Fed is leaning on the side of precautious as they continue to monitor changes within the inflation and employment markets Additional Resources:Key Question: What Should Investors Know About India's Economic Rise? | Key Private Bank2024 Outlook: On the Road (Back) to the Old Normal | Key Private BankKey Questions | Key Private BankKey Private Bank Investment Brief | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

Employment While the headline numbers for the jobs report showed results that beat expectations, when you look closely at the report it shows a softening labor market which is exactly what the Fed wants to see. Nonfarm payrolls in the month of November showed a gain of 199,000 which topped the estimate of 190,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 3.7% which was better than the forecast for 3.9%. The growth of 199,000 is below the average monthly gain of 240,000 and it is also important to point out that some of the gain in November was attributed to the end of the UAW and actors strikes. In fact, while employment in manufacturing increased 28,000 in November there was a 30,000 person increase in motor vehicles and parts as workers returned from strike. The employment in information also had a gain of 10,000 in the month, but motion picture and sound recording industries added 17,000 jobs as the resolution of labor disputes came to an end in the industry. The strikes have created volatility in the numbers over the last few months and that can also be seen in the revision to September where total nonfarm payroll employment was revised lower by 35,000. With these major strikes now behind us, we should be able to see a better reading in these job numbers moving forward. Another major area the Fed likely has their eye on is the change in average hourly earnings, which points to wage inflation. In the month of November average hourly earnings increased by 4.0%, which was the lowest reading since May 2021. Overall, this report points to the concept that a soft landing is still a real possibility. I believe the labor market will continue to soften, which should be good news for inflation and our economy.   JOLTs Report While it may not look like good news when reading the headline number, the JOLTs report showed exactly what the Fed is looking for. Job openings of 8.73 million in the month of October were below the estimate of 9.4 million and showed a decline of 617,000 or 6.6% compared to the previous month. This also marked the lowest number since March 2021. While this all sounds troubling, it shows the labor market is softening which is what the Fed has wanted to see. It also shows that the labor market is still doing alright considering there are still 1.3 job openings to every available worker. Pre-pandemic this ratio stood at 1.2.   Drug Companies The Biden administration has opened the door to seize the patents of certain costly medications from drugmakers. The administration has unveiled framework that outlines the factors federal agencies should consider in deciding whether to use march-in rights, which take patents for drugs and shares them with other pharmaceutical companies if the public cannot reasonably access the medications. Officials can now factor in the price of a medication in deciding to break a patent. While this may sound like a nice practice, I do worry about the long-term ramifications. While drug companies often do have nice margins on drugs that succeed, people generally do not discuss the billions of dollars that is spent on research and development for drugs that do not succeed. If drug companies cannot offset those costs with high margins on successful drugs, the industry could have major problems. Also, what would the incentive be to spend billions of dollars on research and development for a new drug, when you could just potentially wait for another company to come up with the solution and then use their patent that has been taken from them by the government? This could ultimately stifle innovation in the industry.   Magnificent Seven Remember a few years ago the FANG stocks? They have now been replaced by what is known as the Magnificent Seven which are Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Meta. People still believe index investing is a great way to invest and diversify your portfolio, but when you look at the S&P 500 you should realize that the Magnificent Seven have carried the index to a year-to-date return of around 20%. If you look at that equal weight index it is actually only up around 6% this year. Also, in the index 44% of stocks are showing negative results. You may think you had diversification with the S&P 500 but currently the seven stocks account for close to 30% of the index. These companies stock prices have continued to perform, but history has proven time and time again that any equity trading at such high valuations eventually comes back to reality. When that happens investors in these seven stocks, and also the index will have disappointing returns. Unfortunately, I cannot tell you when it will happen, only that history has proven itself to be right 100% of the time.   Financial Planning: Reviewing Income at the End of the Year As we get closer to the end of the year, it is getting more important to review income levels and make any necessary adjustments before December 31st. When analyzing income, it is helpful to identify the expected level of adjusted gross income (AGI), the number of itemized deductions (if any), the amount of total taxable income, and the amount of taxable income subject to ordinary income rates. Adjusted gross income is the sum of all reportable income which could be wages, capital gains, interest, IRA distributions, and Social Security to name a few. After tallying AGI, next is the itemized deductions which include mortgage interest, state income and property taxes, charitable donations, and medical expenses. Taxpayers can claim the larger of the itemized deductions or the standard deduction which is $27,700 for a married couple in 2023. These deductions act as an expense which reduces the adjusted gross income and results in taxable income (AGI – deduction = taxable income). From there the long-term capital gain and qualified dividend portion of income can be separated from the other ordinary taxable income as capital gains and dividends are taxed at a lower rate (taxable income = ordinary + capital gains and dividends). From this point a taxpayer can determine what tax bracket they will be in, the tax rate of their capital gains and dividends, and whether their income will trigger any additional net investment income tax or Medicare premiums. Finally, action can be taken such as Roth conversions, realizing gains or losses, charitable donations, or retirement contributions to push income in a more efficient direction.

On this episode, Cole Perry, Senior Market Analyst, and Omar Eltorai, Director of Research, both of Altus Group, navigate various compelling topics that have recently been in the spotlight. They unpack the latest inflation and job market numbers, provide insights from the Federal Reserve's minutes and consider indicators of small business optimism. This episode provides insightful critical analyses and reflections on the state of the economy and the CRE market.Key Takeaways:(01:08) A close look at the U.S. consumer price index and its rise in September. (01:55) September's employment report reveals strength across the labor market. Nonfarm payrolls and other key metrics shed light on the current state of employment.(08:33) JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup's recent performances are discussed — highlighting significant growth in earnings and revenue. (11:22) A brief touch on the performances of PNC and the airline industry, particularly United and Delta.(13:10) From U.S. bank capital regulations to the ECB's increased scrutiny on CRE loans in Europe, the episode covers crucial regulatory shifts and their implications.(16:29) Insights from the Walker & Dunlop Most Insightful Hour in CRE and the State of the Market webinar provide a holistic view of current market dynamics.(21:05) The resilience of regional malls and the evolving work-from-home trends are examined, offering a window into changing consumer and workforce behaviors.Resources mentioned:Cole Perry -https://www.linkedin.com/in/coleperry1/Omar Eltorai - https://www.linkedin.com/in/omareltorai/Altus Group -https://www.linkedin.com/company/altus-group/Altus Group's US Commercial Real Estate Industry Conditions and Sentiment Survey -https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/cre-industry-conditions-and-sentiment-survey-register/Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee Minutes -https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htmNFIB Small Business Optimism Index Report -https://www.nfib.com/content/press-release/economy/small-business-optimism-dips-in-september-as-inflation-remains-top-problem/State of the Market Webinar Replay -https://www.altusgroup.com/webinars/us-state-of-the-market-quarterly-analysis/Young Real Estate Professionals of New York -http://www.yrepny.org/Thanks for listening to the CRE Exchange podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber kicked off the hour with the September jobs report; Nonfarm payrolls rose by 336,000 for the month blowing past the consensus estimate for 170,000, which sent stocks lower and yields higher. The anchors also discussed Exxon in talks to buy Pioneer Natural Resources, in a deal that could be worth roughly $60 billion. After the bells, the anchors also discussed Tesla, which cut Model 4 and Model Y prices in the U.S. after the company reported third-quarter deliveries that missed market expectations.  Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

Job growth was stronger than expected in September, a sign that the U.S. economy is working despite higher interest rates, labor battles and disfunction in Washington. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 for the month, better than the Dow Jones estimate for 170,000 and more than 100,000 higher than the previous month, the Labor Department said Friday.  The unemployment rate was 3.8%, compared to the forecast for 3.7% The payrolls increase was the best monthly number since January. The strong numbers are better for the economy than the August numbers, but also signal that the economy refuses to slow down, despite the Federal Reserves efforts to get prices and hiring closer to normal levels. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Candor's patented automated underwriting decision engine, CogniTech™, is a state-of-the-art, 100% machine platform that can handle infinite loan scenarios.  The portability allows clients to plug in the technology wherever an underwrite happens during the loan lifecycle, from point of sale to servicing. Clients can instantly scale to match loan volumes, improve quality to mitigate repurchase risk, & boost liquidity. Candor Can Do

Walk through NFP with ICT live. visual notes for this discussion: link (there is a bit of silence at the beginning) audio download: original, shortened

Employers added more jobs in January than expected, while the unemployment rate fell to a 53-year low, underscoring the resilience of the labor market despite the Fed's aggressive tightening campaign. ⁣ Nonfarm payrolls increased 517,000 last month after an upwardly revised 260,000 gain in December. The figure beat all estimates from economists, who called for a 188,000 gain in payrolls. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.4%, the lowest since May 1969, and average hourly earnings grew at steady pace.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news, and determine the effect this will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss ARK Investment Management CEO Cathie Wood's comments that ARK is "the new Nasdaq," adding that her flagship fund now gives investors better exposure to long-term innovation than most of the market's most popular growth stock benchmarks.Chris and Saied look at a report stating that benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hit four-week highs after the recent employment numbers raised expectations that the Fed's rate hikes will not end with a hard economic landing, and that the U.S. central bank may have more than one more rate increase left.They also offer some thoughts on Blackstone's plans to ramp up evictions to help its struggling real estate investment trust.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You'll Learn in this Show:Why wages aren't keeping up with inflation, and what the next stage of the Fed's pivot might look like.Why the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange is temporarily suspending deposits and withdrawals of US dollars.Why FTX debtors are calling on politicians, parties and PACs to return tens of millions in campaign contributions.The definition of a depreciation amortization benefit.And so much more...Resources:"US adds 517,000 jobs in January, far exceeding economists forecasts" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"Jobs Report Tells Markets What Fed Chairman Powell Tried to Tell Them" (article from Barron's)"A New Supercycle Is Starting, Says This Macro Strategist. How to Invest." (article from Barron's)"Cathie Wood says AARK is "the new Nasdaq" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"Binance to Suspend US Dollar Transfers Using Bank Accounts" (article from Bloomberg)"TREASURIES-Yields hit four-week highs, Fed expected to hike above 5%" (article from Yahoo! Finance)"Blackstone ramps up tenant evictions" (TheRealDeal via Instagram)

Nonfarm payrolls report to provide insight into inflation, Fed policy. Raytheon (RTX) exploring $1B sale of actuation business - report. ChatGPT creator OpenAi in talks for tender offer at $29B valuation - report. Boeing's (BA) safety procedures face review by a new FAA panel.

Nonfarm payroll growth slowed to 263,000 in September, in line with expectations, even as the U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5% from 3.7%. Combined with the relatively slow pace of firings, the Federal Reserve has all the data it needs to proceed with another 75-basis-point rate hike in November. But, as Peter Boockvar notes, the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims are lagging indicators. “My issue with the Fed,” notes Boockvar, “remains that after over-medicating us over the past few years that now shock therapy is overkill.” Boockvar joins Maggie Lake for today's Daily Briefing to talk about how far the Fed will go to get what it wants. We also share a sneak preview of a conversation between Julia Pollak, the chief economist at ZipRecruiter, and Maggie Lake about how the U.S. labor market has changed in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nonfarm payrolls expected to edge down in September jobs report. Cannabis multi-state operators soar as Biden calls for marijuana federal scheduling review. Judge pauses Twitter-Musk trial to allow for closing. Catch today's WSB article https://seekingalpha.com/wsb. Invest Successfully With Alpha Picks https://seekingalpha.com/alpha-picks/subscribe.

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending August 6th, 2022... the Fed's next move, a mortgage rate rollback for home buyers, and a new all-time high for single-family rents.Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.Economic NewsWe begin with economic news from this past week. Federal Reserve policymakers say they are “nowhere near” the end of their fight against inflation. Four Fed Presidents spoke out on Tuesday, August 2nd, about their resolve to get inflation back down to 2%. San Francisco Fed Chief Mary Daly said that she is currently seeing a 50 basis point rate hike as appropriate in September, but she says: “If we just see inflation roaring ahead undauntedly, the labor market showing no signs of slowing, then we'll be in a different position where a 75-basis-point increase might be more appropriate.” Comments from the other three Fed Presidents were similar. (1)And then there was a screamingly strong jobs report a few days later. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that hiring in July exceeded expectations. Nonfarm payrolls were up 528,000, and the unemployment rate dipped lower, to 3.5%. To put this in perspective, in the years leading up to 2020 when the economy was robust, job creation was closer to 195,000 per month on average.The unemployment rate is now back to its pre-pandemic level. As reported by MarketWatch, it's tied for the lowest level since 1969. (2) Some economists see the strong jobs report as signs that the Federal Reserve will lean toward a more aggressive rate hike in September. KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk said in a CNBC report: “This is hot. For the Fed, this is another 75 basis point hike.” (3)The unemployment report shows a slightly elevated level of new claims. During the last week of July, 260,000 people applied for benefits which is an increase of 6,000 from the week before. The number of continuing claims was also higher by about 48,000. That brings the total number of continuing claims up to about 1.42 million, which is the highest level since April. (4)A new report on home price growth shows that year-over-year prices were up 18.2% in June. On a month-to-month basis, the CoreLogic report says they were up .6% for the 125th consecutive month of higher prices. This is more inflationary news that may convince the Fed to be more aggressive with rate future hikes. However, the report does shows that price growth is slowing down. CoreLogic expects it to drop to 4.3% by next June. (5)Higher home prices also increase homeowner equity. CoreLogic says the average borrower had $280,000 in home equity at the end of the first quarter. That's a gain of about $64,000 over the past year, and a gain of about $125,000 over five years. (6) Those folks expecting a housing crash will have to consider why homeowners with so much equity and low fixed rate mortgage payments would suddenly abandon their homes. Higher home prices are slowing sales, and that's driving up inventory levels, but they are still nowhere they need to be. According to Realtor.com, active listings are about 30% higher than they were a year ago but are less than half of what they were in June of 2019 and about two-thirds of where they were in June of 2020. The good news is that homebuyers have a few more homes to choose from and a little extra time to make a decision, but only a little extra time. The Realtor.com trends report says that homes are spending just ONE extra day on the market compared to last year.(7)New home builders are also experiencing a sales slowdown and higher inventory levels. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, there are more than nine months supply of newly-built homes on the market. However, it can be difficult to gauge new home inventory because many of those homes are experiencing construction delays and not sales delays. (8)Another sign of the housing market slowdown is a sharp drop in construction spending. The Commerce Department reported a 1.1% decrease in June. Private residential construction took the biggest hit. It was down 1.6%. (9) Ironically, the construction of new homes is what's needed to increase supply, yet builders are generally the first to get hit with higher interest rates. A slow down in new home construction could mean continued bidding wars on existing homes in growth markets.Mortgage RatesHome buyers are getting a break right now on their mortgage rates. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dipped below 4% for the week ending August 4th. They dropped 31 basis points to an average of 4.99%. The 15-year dropped 32 points to 4.26%. Freddie Mac's Chief Economist, Sam Khater, says: “Mortgage rates remain volatile due to the tug of war between inflationary pressures and a clear slowdown in economic growth.” (10)You may be wondering why mortgage rates have gone down when the Fed fund rate is going up. Mortgage rates are generally tied to the 10-year Treasury as mortgage backed securities attract the same type of investor. With the Fed raising rates aggressively, big investors are worried it will create a recession, so they seek the safety of bonds and MBS's. These investors also may believe that we've hit a peak in inflation. Otherwise they would invest in inflationary stocks instead of bonds. In other news making headlines... Single-Family Rent GrowthDemand continues to grow for single-family rentals as more and more potential homebuyers are priced out of the market. And that's pushing rents higher. A new report from Yardi Matrix says the average single-family asking rent rose $23 in June, to an all-time high of $2,071. (11)Rent growth is slowing for both single-family and multi-family rentals. The report says that year-over-year single-family rent growth has dropped 90 basis points, to an annual rate of 11.8%.House Approves Remote NotarizationThe U.S. House approved legislation that would make remote online notarizations possible in all 50 states. The bill will make it easier to close a deal without having the notary and the person signing the agreement in the same room. During the pandemic, agents in many states had to arrange for drive-by closings, with social distancing. (12) The pandemic also inspired almost half the states to allow for remote notarizations. The National Association of Realtors pushed for a national bill to support the demand for virtual sales and closings in all 50 states, even though there's less concern now about pandemic-related safety measures. The bill is now pending consideration in the Senate. That's it for today. Check the show notes for links at newsforinvestors.com. I would also like to share some other exciting news. Within the last few weeks, we hit a big milestone for Real Estate News for Investors. It's been six-and-a-half years since our first news podcast, and we have now posted our 1200th show! We are currently posting two or three podcasts a week for real estate professionals. Set your podcast player to have them automatically downloaded, so you don't miss any! And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.Links:1 -https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-02/daly-says-fed-nowhere-near-done-on-curbing-high-infation-rate2 -https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-daly-34-reasonable-place-get-by-year-end-rates-2022-08-03/3 -https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/05/jobs-report-july-2022-528000.html4 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-unemployment-claims-climb-to-260-000-and-stick-near-nine-month-high-11659616784?mod=economy-politics5 -https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/u-s-home-price-insights/6 -https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/podcast-vodcast/oce-monthly/homeowner-equity-reached-record-level-in-early-2022/7 -https://www.realtor.com/research/weekly-housing-trends-view-data-week-july-30-2022/8 -https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR9 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/construction-spending-fell-sharply-in-june-11659363237?mod=economic-report10 -https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms11 -https://rentalhousingjournal.com/average-rents-rise-to-all-time-high-in-june/?utm_source=Master+Vendors&utm_campaign=a590da3d77-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2022_07_20_02_10&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_4780df7d33-a590da3d77-11392877312 -https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2022/07/28/remote-online-notarization-is-one-step-closer