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We follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.

Interest.co.nz / Podcasts NZ


    • Aug 2, 2026 LATEST EPISODE
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    Latest episodes from Economy Watch

    The rise and rise of long-term interest rates

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 2, 2026 8:17


    Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that now we are in August, there are only 100 working days until Christmas, and less than 70 until our 2026 general election! You will need to pull your finger out to ensure your 2026 goals are on track to be accomplished. This week will see the release of a number of updates on how the July real estate market performed. More importantly, we will get the June labour market update and that is expected to show rising joblessness (to 5.4%). To be fair, labour market data are lagging indicators. In Australia, Cotality and Domain will report what they saw in their residential real estate markets. And we will get both household spending and cost of living updates for June this week, neither expected to show improvements. We should also note that their fuel excise tax suspension ended last night. From April to June the discount was 32 AUc/liter, for June and July it was 16c. Now there is no relief discount there. Globally it will be all about July PMIs (other than keeping an eye on the warmongers who all show a distinct lack of any idea on how to end the conflicts they started). In the US, the other important data will be their end of week labour market updates in their non-farm payrolls report. There is little evidence to suggest it will be a strong one and markets currently expect another month of less than +100,000 gains (+91,000) and a rising jobless rate (4.3%). We will be tracking their bond market signals closely too. And that the Trump Organisation is regarded by banks as a money-laundering entity barely raises an eyebrow these days, indicates how low the US has fallen. But also, a key background reason risk premiums are rising. In India, they will get a central bank review but no-change to their policy rate (5.25%) is anticipated. We will be tracking those PMIs too, especially in China to see if the private S&P Global versions continue to be more upbeat than the dour official versions. After four months of minor expansion, those official factory PMIs has slipped back into small contraction with a much sharper shift than was expected. After two months of minor expansion, their official services PMI also slipped back into a small contraction, also a sharper shift lower than expected. China's overall growth targets are looking less likely to be achieved the longer the year goes on. But lets not overstate these pullback signals; most countries would love to have their growth levels even at the reduced impetus. China's key issue is that new order levels are fading and exports are the key driver, not internal consumption (which is their goal). So more induced infrastructure stimulus is on the way. Korean industrial production bounced back sharply in June after the minor but unexpected dip in May. The June level was +5.8% higher than a year ago, up +2.3% from May, a heartening rebound for them. The Korean stock market bounced back sharply on Friday after the earlier dives, but they still ended the week down more than -3%. Japanese industrial production recorded a similar recovery in June, up +4.2% from a year ago, up +1.3% for the month. But that was not matched by retail sales in Japan which took a rather large tumble, down -4.1% from the strong year-ago level, up +0.5% from May. The Japanese central bank intervention support for their currency may have been significantly expensive, even if it has succeeded in halting the devaluation with a 3% recovery. Reports indicate they spent US$45 to US$50 bln on the few-days effort. It happened again on Friday, this time in a joint action with the US. And more may be coming. EU inflation came in at 2.9% in July as expected, up marginally from June's 2.8%. Australian producer prices rose +3.6% in June from a year ago, the most since early 2025 and above the anticipated +2.5% and even the 'high' Q1-2026 3.0% level. Inflation is embedding and it is a result that will focus attention by officials. In the US, even though the US Fed held its policy rate unchanged last Thursday (despite 3 dissenters wanting higher rates), markets have pushed US benchmark rates higher anyway. The UST 10 year is +27 bps higher at the end of July than at the beginning. Their 30 year benchmark is also +27 bps higher. Most of these increases came in the past two weeks, and will resonate soon for American home loan borrowers. The updated July University of Michigan sentiment survey confirmed its better July levels, and confirmed lower inflation expectations. Still, these new levels are -11% lower than year-ago levels with perceptions of current conditions -19% lower. These measures are still in the down-trend that started in 2024 even after these better July results. They noted that US consumers remain focused on pocketbook issues like purchasing power, while political or military developments remain more in the background. Also improving in July were the results of the Chicago PMI, clearly benefiting from stockpiling and reshoring still. In the current Q2-2026 earnings season reporting, 86% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 77% of S&P 500 companies has reported a positive revenue surprise. In Canada, they reported their GDP rose modestly in June, a third consecutive rise and the fifth gain in six months as their economy gathers steam. Q2-2026 results aren't yet available but it is clear they will be quite positive, in contrast to the small dip in Q1-2026, and the weak Q2-2025 result. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.75%, up +1 bp from this time Saturday, up +7 bps for the week. We make that its highest since January 2025 (briefly) and prior to that October 2023. The 30 year yield is at 5.28% and a 20+ year high.  The price of gold has fallen to US$4042/oz, down -US$8 from Saturday down -US$6 for the week. Silver is down -50 USc at just over US$57.50/oz, down -US$1 for the week. Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday still at now just over US$84.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still just over US$88/bbl.  The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at just under 58.9 USc, but up +100 bps for the week and back to early June levels. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 83.8 AUc. Against the euro we unchanged at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.6 which is also unchanged from this time Saturday, and also up +100 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,293 and up +0.4% from this time Saturday, down -1.4% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    christmas american canada australia china japan gold michigan australian japanese european union new zealand track bitcoin inflation silver korean south korea long term reports usc aussie oil gdp interest rates globally kiwi eps domain kia volatility sentiment pmi s p ppi in india ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand twi us fed auc pmis s p global industrial production
    The air is going out of the global economy

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 30, 2026 6:06


    Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the giant US economy is slowing. It hasn't had three consecutive lackluster quarters in at least a decade, certainly not since the GFC. US jobless claims fell last week but by less than seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now 1.85 mln people on these benefits, less than last year at this time but only marginally less than two years ago. US PCE inflation fell in June to 3.7% from 4.0% in May, as analysts had expected. But that is way higher than the Fed used to say it would tolerate. Personal disposable income rose less than personal spending, and for a fifth consecutive month. Meanwhile, their Q2-2026 GDP update sagged in its first estimate, now up +1.5% and lower than the Q1-2025 final reading of +2.0%. Analysts had expected Q2 to come in at 2.1% so this data is a disappointment. It does mean a Fed rate hike is probably off the table, so equity markets rose. But so did long term bond yields although there was a notable pullback in short term yields and so their rate curve steepened sharply. The USD also took a tumble and is now down -1.6% in just the past two days. As expected, China's top leadership pledged to roll out targeted stimulus measures to support their economy in the second half of the year. The directives, issued at a Politburo meeting yesterday, come as the world's second-largest economy faces weak domestic demand and deepening structural imbalances. Second-quarter growth has been lower than they need to reach their targets. In Japan, observers see a Bank of Japan market intervention to support the yen. The yen rose sharply to the 157 range against the US dollar at one point yesterday, its strongest level since mid-May. Staying in Japan, consumer sentiment picked up in July but that is off a lowish base and it is barely back to its 2023-2024 levels. Sentiment surveys in the EU were out too for July and they rose again to extend their streak for both consumers and business sentiment.. EU GDP results for Q2-2026 were also released overnight, rising to 1.2% from a year ago. For them, that is quite positive. In Germany, CPI inflation rose 2.8% in July, up from 2.3% in June which was below what they had in prior months, so more back at trend. The Bank of England reviewed their monetary policy overnight, but made no changes. In Australia in a briefing released on the ASX, banking major NAB noted that their "total Australian home lending applications were 15% lower than the prior quarter". Staying in Australia, they reported that the number of new dwellings consented rose +7.2% in June from May to 18,328 (up +8.9% from a year ago). Houses were up only +0.4% but other dwellings were up almost +18% from May, although that doesn't quite take them back to year-ago levels despite this recent surge. Yesterday, Ampol (the owner of Z Energy here) reported sharply increased margins. Clearly refiners have been adding much more to retail prices than just the higher cost of crude. Global air travel fell in June, not by a lot, but essentially driven by sharp retreats in Middle East travel. Also unusual is a fall-off in both domestic and international travel in North America, an unexpected shift. Domestic air travel in China was also unusually weak. Container freight rates fell again last week, down -3% but they remain +70% higher than year-ago levels. Bulk cargo rates also fell marginally to be -24% lower than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.67%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The 30 year yield is nearly at a 20 year high. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +44 bps (+13 bps). Their 1-5 curve is now at +36 bps (+8 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +100 bps (+6 bps). There has been a sharp steepening of the US rate curve today, a harsh market verdict on the Warsh performance yesterday.  The price of gold has risen to US$4105/oz, up +US$30 from yesterday. Silver is now just under US$59/oz, up +50 USc from yesterday. Oil prices have dipped by -50 USc from yesterday at now just under US$84/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$89/bbl and down -US$1.50. Hormuz transits are still constrained. There have been 3 crude tankers and only 7 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and ten entering for new loads (4 dark). The Red Sea activity is still low at less than 20 either way. The Kiwi dollar is up +100 bps from yesterday at just under 58.8 USc and suddenly back to early June levels. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we have risen +30 bps to 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.5 which is up +80 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,802 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    australia china england japan personal germany gold global australian european union north america staying new zealand bank middle east track bitcoin inflation silver usc aussie fed oil analysts houses domestic gdp usd red sea kiwi cpi kia volatility hormuz container sentiment bulk global economy nab gfc asx ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand warsh twi bond yields auc politburo z energy
    Hot war spread to reignite inflation risks

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 29, 2026 6:11


    Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US and the world are facing a new jolt of inflation as the hot war activity spread. The US central bank response? ignore the risks and pretend things will return to normal soon. But first, US mortgage applications fell sharply last week, their largest dip since mid-May, and driven by a -10% fall in refinance activity. And that came as their benchmark mortgage interest rate rose yet again, now its highest in a year. Also falling sharply last week were US crude oil stocks, down much more than expected. They have fallen in 12 of the past 14 weeks, and this latest one is one of the larger retreats. Worse perhaps, their strategic oil reserves are now at at levels they last had in 1983 just after they started building these reserves in 1982, and their economy is now nine times as large. These strategic reserves have gone from double the private system holdings, to only 75% of them. It is poublic mismanagement on an epic scale. The US Fed held its policy rate unchanged, even while noting they have high inflation that isn't easing and they have "supply shocks that have driven price increases" well above their 2% goal. But it was a split decision with three members voting to hike +25 bps. One of those was not Jerome Powell; he was in the nine who voted for the hold. Chairman Warsh's style is all over this statement because it was very short with little transparency. And Warsh's inflation fighting vow seems to be just talk. Across the Pacific, Singapore reported that their producer prices rose more than +30% in June from a year ago, maintaining the pace of increase for non-oil goods they have had since March. In South Korea, there has been real drama on their stock exchange with declines so sharp they had to temporarily suspend trading. It is all related to perceptions about tech valuations. Even though these companies are reporting sharp profit increases, investors worry that Chinese chipmakers are about to eat their lunch. At one point yesterday the share market there was down -13%, suddenly wiping out all the prior AI gain euphoria. But it ended down 'only' +6% to cap a five-day retreat of -17%. In Australia, June CPI inflation came in at 3.8%, and less than the 4.0% expected. It was kept up by the expiry of household energy support measures, but the falls in fuel costs more than offset that. More here. Will this deter the RBA from moving their policy rate on August 11? It may do, but inflation expectations remain very high. Some analysts now expect a hawkish hold. The lower CPI hit the AUD hard yesterday, presumably because FX markets no longer see higher interest rates imminently. The global credit risk environment has evolved heading into the second half of 2026 but continues to be driven by two main sources of short-term risk, according to Fitch Ratings; rising vulnerability to an AI-related market correction and persistent geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. This is on top of a broader context of slowing US consumer momentum, high inflation risks stemming from the 2Q energy shock and structural public finance pressures limiting the ability to respond to risk events. Credit risk premiums will rise, says Fitch. Iran was annoyed Trump claimed talks were taking place when they weren't, so they reinforced their point. Then the US and Saudi Arabia attacked Iran-linked forces in Iraq. And the Houthis attacked two Saudi tankers off Yemen. This mess isn't going away. June air cargo demand rose in June, at a time of a relative lull in Middle East tensions. It was up +8.5% overall, up +9.6% for international trade. Asia/Pacific activity was up +9.5% from a year ago. There were larger increases in air cargo trade with North America. Meanwhile the China-to-Europe cargo train trade is surging, added to by very fast 15 day transit times for peak demand of air conditioning units, for example. Shipping via the Suez canal chokepoint will probably never recover for consumer goods. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.65%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday and with a small push higher after the Fed decision. The price of gold has risen to US$4075/oz, back up +US$45 from yesterday. Silver is now just over US$58.50/oz, back up +US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices have risen sharply by +US$5.50 from yesterday at now just over US$84.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$90.50/bbl and up +US$5. Hormuz transits are still basically halted. There have been no crude tankers and only 8 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (6 dark with transponders off) and 16 entering for new loads (11 dark). The Red Sea is even less active than the prior day. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday at just under 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps to 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.7 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,890 and up +0.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    ai donald trump europe australia china gold chinese north america new zealand iran middle east track bitcoin iraq singapore worse inflation credit silver korea risks south korea pacific spread saudi arabia usc aussie fed oil fx saudi red sea shipping yemen kiwi asia pacific cpi kia volatility hormuz fitch jerome powell houthis suez reignite oil prices aud ppi ust rba shutterstock aotearoa new zealand twi fitch ratings us fed auc june cpi
    Learning to live with less oil

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 28, 2026 5:15


    Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China's clear need for less oil has pushed its price sharply lower even as both the Gulf of Hormuz and the Red Sea remain effectively shut. As other sources raise their output, global demand is being undermined, essentially by this Chinese transition. But first up today, we should note the overnight dairy Pulse auction. Prices achieved were a bit more than -1% lower than the prior week's full auction in USD, but a bit less than that in NZD. In the US, the ADP weekly private payrolls monitoring recorded another easing, only +15,000 and extending the easing trend that has been in place since early May. The US merchandise trade deficit came in more than -US$100 bln in June, a second straight month of an unusually high negative level. Year-on-year, exports were up, but imports rose faster. Meanwhile both their retail (+3.1%) and wholesale inventories (+4.1%) rose in June, reflecting the stockpiling trend that has been in place for a while now. The expected improvement in the Richmond Fed factory survey didn't eventuate in July from June, but it remains modestly positive. New order flows edged lower while price and cost levels remained elevated. But there was a solid improvement in the Dallas Fed services sector recorded in their July survey. Nationally, the Conference Board's consumer sentiment survey in the US took a step lower in July. This extends its falling trajectory that started in early 2025. The auction for the US Treasury 7yr Note was well supported earlier today but again, investors are getting higher yields for the elevated risk they perceive. This latest one delivered a median yield of 4.41% (high of 4.47%) compared to 4.20% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In Japan, a major 7.1 earthquake in the south has caused widespread damage and deaths. And Japan's parliament has approved a plan to create a "second capital" capable of keeping the country running if disaster strikes Tokyo. It is likely to be in Osaka. Malaysia said producer prices there were +9.2% higher in June than a year ago. This was an unexpected jump from the anticipated +7.7% which was similar to the May rise. Staying in the region, Singapore reported its birth rate for 2025 and for the first time since its independence, it has fallen below +30,000 in a year. It, like many places, is on a steep trajectory of lower fertility. Industrial production in India rose +7.3% in June from a year ago, more than expected and the sharpest pace of expansion in nearly two years. It seems to be bouncing back from the initial shocks from the Middle East conflict. Later today, we will be getting the June CPI result from Australia and a no-change 4.0% rate is anticipated. But yesterday Governor Michelle Bullock was out speaking and affirming that they are worried that these high levels are embedding, so their 1-3% target range is not likely in the medium term. Some are wondering if this was a signal that an unexpected hike is about to be delivered next week. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.60%, down -5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has fallen to US$4030/oz, down -US$48 from yesterday. Silver is now just over US$57/oz, down -US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices have fallen another -US$3.50 from yesterday at now just over US$79/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$84.50/bbl and down -US$5. Hormuz transits are still basically halted. There have been no crude tankers and only 3 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and three entering for new loads (1 dark). The Red Sea is even less active than the prior day. The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at just under 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 83 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just on 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.8 which is up +20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,568 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    learning australia china japan gold chinese staying new zealand middle east track bitcoin tokyo singapore silver usc aussie prices industrial oil malaysia gulf pulse usd red sea kiwi osaka cpi kia volatility nationally hormuz adp ppi us treasury ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand conference board crude oil twi consumer sentiment auc trade deficit dallas fed nzd june cpi
    US backs away in Hormuz after achieving nothing

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 27, 2026 6:02


    Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news Iran is claiming control of the Strait of Hormuz as the US backs away, unable to exert the pressure it thought it could. The pause in fighting there has calmed markets significantly even if few ships are actually transiting. Elsewhere, the US durable goods order report for June was a strong one, up +8.9% from the same month a year ago, but only up +0.3% from May, so most of the gain was in prior months and the June rise was much less than the expected +2.5%. Capital goods were up +4.1% from a year ago, but excluding defense and aircraft, they were up a good +14%. The Dallas Fed regional factory survey was positive too, even if only marginally. That completes seven consecutive months of only marginal changes, some up, some down. Price and wage pressures remained markedly elevated, they said. There were two large US Treasury bond auctions overnight, both well supported. But both saw sharpish rises in yields from the prior equivalent events a month ago. The two year median yield rose +13 bps, and the five year yield rose +21 bps on the same basis. In Canada, their central bank surveys market participants quarterly and these professionals were less upbeat than at the previous survey. They foresaw no policy rate changes in 2026, but rises in the next two years. They also foresee a 25% chance of recession, although more likely growth in the 1-2% range. This is lower than in the prior survey. Trump's trade tensions are the main risk they see. Singapore has surprised markets with another tightening move, its second consecutive such shift. Singapore regulates its monetary policy via its exchange rate (the S$NEER). It is raising its exchange rate to dampen inflationary pressures. The June CPI inflation rate there rose to 1.9%, its highest since August 2024. Singapore's industrial production growth came in less than expected in June, up +7.2% from a year ago when a +9% rise was expected, down from the almost +18% in May. China reported strong industrial profit growth in June, up +15% from the same month a year ago although this was less than the claimed +18% growth rate for the first half of 2026. They say their factory sector profits rose more than 20% on the year-to-date basis, but companies producing electricity saw theirs fall more than -4%. Local listed companies did well, but foreign companies hardly made any gains. Local private companies came in in-between. Expectations are rising that the current CCP summit in Beijing will deliver new stimulus programs. The Indonesian central bank chief has been pushed out with two years left on his term. The Indonesian government wasn't happy with the standard approach of the experienced governor, and wanted the central bank to support it's all-out drive for economic growth rather than inflation control. It was a sudden change, but one preceded by the President appointing a family member as a deputy governor earlier in the year (remember Turkey?). Indonesia has been suffering a weak currency due to the political interference. In Europe, Spain, France and Italy are all battling out-of-control wildfires. Everywhere is battling intense heat. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.65%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has risen to US$4078/oz, up +US$26 from yesterday. Silver is now just on US$58.50/oz, up +50 USc from yesterday. Oil prices have fallen sharply and by US$8 from yesterday at now just over US$82.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$89.50/bbl and down -US$9. Hormuz transits are still basically halted There have been 3 crude tankers and only 2 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and two entering for new loads (1 dark). The Red Sea is only marginally more active. The IEA has been reviewing why oil markets have proven more resilient through the current crisis than some had feared and they point out that oil output in countries not directly affected by the Persian Gulf troubles has risen notably and most countries are permitting export flows. They also point o the major release of strategic reserves to cushion the shocks, with 290 mln barrels released so far with more than 1 bln still in reserve. But they note that markets for refined products are considerably tighter than for crude oil. The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at just on 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.6 which is down -20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,917 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    canada president donald trump europe china france gold italy local price spain expectations new zealand iran turkey track bitcoin capital singapore indonesia silver achieving usc aussie beijing oil wildfires red sea kiwi backs indonesians strait kia volatility hormuz ccp persian gulf us treasury strait of hormuz iea ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand twi auc dallas fed june cpi
    Transactional Trump trapped by his own missteps

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 26, 2026 8:11


    Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that after more bellicose threats, Trump has backed off hitting Iran as he had signaled, another TACO twist. The region isn't quiet, but the threatened escalation by the US hasn't happened, not yet anyway. The oil price hasn't really eased back yet on this lull and is holding most of last week run-up towards US$100/bbl again. Trumps policy twerking has everyone unnerved. Away from that and looking ahead locally, this week will feature the big data dump of the June quarter RBNZ series. We will especially be watching household deposit growth, which stalled in May. In Australia, it will be all about Wednesday's CPI release (expect a small rise to 4.1%) and Friday's PPI (expect a rise to 3.5%). In the US, the spotlight will be on the Thursday Fed meeting. Analysts expect no-change at 3.75% even though CPI inflation was at 3.5% for June and rising, remaining well above the Fed's 2% target. Even their PCE inflation was running at 4.1% for May. We will get their June update on Friday. In the meantime, financial markets are pricing in more of a chance of a hike - if not at this meeting then two by the end of the year. There will be a lot of other US data out this week, including a Q2 GDP update, and the Conference Board's sentiment survey. The week will also feature some Big Tech profit results. In Japan, all eyes will be on Friday's central bank decision, especially on how they intend to respond to their currency problems. Not no change from their 1% rate is anticipated. In China, it will be all about a big set-piece Communist Party meeting. There will be a lot of interest to see if big new stimulus is announced there. Their PMI's may signal how urgent that is. Over the weekend in Japan, CPI inflation stayed low in June even if it did rose to a six month high. It came in at 1.7% in June from 1.5% in May, its highest since December. The pickup was largely driven by a slower decline in electricity and fuel prices as government energy subsidies were scaled back. Japan's private sector expanded to a five-month high in July via a sharp rise in manufacturing production and an improvement in their factory PMI which was driven mainly by the sharpest increase in manufacturing orders for five years. The July PMIs for India came in notably lower than for June as private sector growth receded and inflation pressure, especially for fuel, intensified. This is putting them in a tough spot with spreading social unrest. Their factory PMI dipped only marginally but their services PMI registered a notable easing. In the US the first of the July PMIs shows that business activity growth rose modestly but to an eight-month high in July although that isn't an especially high benchmark. However selling prices rose sharply and at their fastest rate for nearly four years. Input cost inflation was at a 14 month high. Their factory sector expansion was little-changed however from June with new orders little-changed. It was their services sector that expanded more, albeit modestly US new home sales were little-changed in June but maintained the modest level they have had all year. That makes then -5.6% lower than year-ago levels. Canadian producer price growth fell back slightly in June from May but are still +12.4% higher than year-ago levels. Raw material input costs by manufacturers were up more than +20% from a year go. Meanwhile, the Russian central bank trimmed -25 bps from its key policy rate, taking it to 14.0%. A year ago, this rate was 21%. They have CPI inflation officially at 6.0%, although this seems an unlikely level. In the EU, eurozone business activity has risen for first time in four months in July amid renewed expansion of new orders. Their factory PMI inched up, and their services PMI inched up too. But to be fair, these higher levels are not significant and the expansion is minor compared to other global regions. But at least it isn't a contraction. The German versions of these PMIs was generally better than the overall set. German consumer sentiment didn't budge however. In Europe, their ugly heat and worrying fire season isn't easing. In fact a new wave of extreme heat is forecast over the next few weeks. It is part of an accelerating trend that will likely extinguish European glaciers far faster than anticipated just ten years ago. Australia also got better new factory order levels in July, the first increase in new business in five months. Improved demand conditions underpinned a stronger expansion in output, led to upgraded recruitment activity and enabled greater protection of profit margins. This data confirms the good labour market data released yesterday. But overall Australian growth is likely to remain sluggish. Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra house prices actually fell in the June quarter, an unusual but necessary shift to make their housing more affordable. It takes serious political bravery to turn a frothy market where gains just fell from the sky. Bitumen prices are surging again on the closed Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes. They are back to levels that we had in mid-March and which lasted to mid-June. Interestingly, urea prices are staying low as are potash prices (minor rises) but sulphur prices never fell after the March spike. Naphtha (used for plastics manufacturing) is rising sharply again. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.68%, unchanged from this time Saturday but up +13 bps for the week. The price of gold has firmed to US$4052/oz, virtually unchanged from Saturday up +US$49 for the week. Silver is now just on US$58/oz, down -50 USc from Saturday, up +US$2 for the week. Oil prices have risen back +US$1.50 from Saturday at now just over US$90.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$98.50/bbl and up +US$2. A week ago these prices were US$82 and US$88/bbl respectively. Hormuz transits have almost halted entirely There have been no crude tankers and only 1 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (0 dark with transponders off) and none entering for new loads (0 dark). The Red Sea is also now effectively blocked at Yemen although a small handful of ships are still getting through (less than 20 each way). Still almost 800 vessels are waiting for things to calm down. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at just on 57.9 USc but down -50 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are still at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just over 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.8 which is unchanged from this time Saturday but down -50 bps from a week ago. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,673 and up +0.7% from this time Saturday and up +1.0% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Tuesday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    donald trump europe australia china japan canadian gold european australian german russian european union new zealand iran track bitcoin melbourne silver raw usc aussie fed oil analysts trapped big tech improved red sea taco yemen input kiwi canberra cpi kia volatility hormuz pmi transactional communist party oil prices ppi missteps strait of hormuz ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand pce conference board twi auc pmis q2 gdp rbnz bitumen naphtha
    Oil price surge sees financial markets stagger

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 23, 2026 6:58


    Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news tankers in the Red Sea have been hit by missiles fired from Yemen. This is unnerving global markets today, and oil prices have jumped everywhere. Bond yields are surging, pushing up mortgage rates and weighing on equity valuations, especially for tech firms. But first in the US, there were 192,000 initial jobless claims last week, a notable drop and far lower than seasonal factors would have accounted for and lower than expected. There are now 1.85 mln people on these benefits, also lower than a year ago but actually an increase from a week ago as claimants are staying on benefits longer even if it is now much harder to get initially qualified. The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index came in slightly below trend, but enough to suggest the US economic expansion was still in place in June. But if the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now tracking is to be believed, that expansion is at a modest level. Consensus forecasts are being trimmed too. The US Treasury 10 year TIPS yield of inflation-protected bonds jumped about +30 bps today and back to the highs we last saw in the pandemic and prior to that in the GFC. Canadian retail sales expanded in June, extending their positive track to six consecutive months. This was for both value and volume terms, to be +5.9% higher than year ago levels. Canadian CPI is running at 2.8%. Across the Pacific, China's foreign direct investment rose +US$11.1 bln in June, better than expected and better than the -US$7.6 bln fall in the same month in 2025. Meanwhile, China's consumer trade-in subsidy program is losing momentum as appliance and car demand weakens. South Korea said its economic activity expanded an impressive +3.7% in Q2-2026, almost the same as the +3.8% in Q1. This is their fastest expansion since Q4-2021, and came in above market estimates of +3.5%. Strong exports were a key factor in this result. Singapore's June CPI came in at +1.9% in June and although that was its highest since August 2024 it was less than the 2% expected. And that was because there was no change from May. In India, we should keep an eye on youth protests, because they are spready and gaining surprisingly wide support. In Europe and as expected by many, the ECB left its key interest rates unchanged at its July meeting overnight, following the +25 bp hike in June. Since then, policymakers have struck a more cautious tone, adopting a "wait-and-see" approach as softer inflation, wage growth, economic activity, and inflation expectations have reduced the urgency for another move. But that may have changed today with the unexpectedly large spike in oil prices. But who knows how fast that may change again? Markets anticipate another ECB rate hike in September. Staying in the EU, consumer sentiment improved in July. That is to say it got less negative. And in a decision likely to intensify trans-Atlantic trade tensions, European Union regulators overnight hit Google with a €890 mln fine for illegally undercutting competition through its dominance in search. Google will not be hurt by this directly in the short term because it reported almost +US$41 bln in profits in Q2-2026 alone. If it is hurt, it will be from their heavy cash burn for its AI buildout. The Australian labour market grew surprisingly strongly in June, adding +76,300 new jobs, far better than the +15,000 expected. Their jobless rate was stable at +4.4%. More than half the new jobs were in NSW, with good gains also in Queensland and Western Australia. But Victoria shed jobs in the month. This strength will add spine to the RBA's fight against rising inflation (4.0%) because they will be now less worried about a weak economy The RBA next meets on August 11, 2026 - 17 days away. Global container freight rates fell -4% last week to be +74% higher than year ago levels. Outbound rates from China were the basis of the pullback from the prior week. Bulk cargo rates were down -8% for the week, and these are now a third higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.70%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday and its highest since January 2025.  Wall Street is -1.4% lower today on the S&P500 with the Nasdaq down -2.5%.  The price of gold has fallen to US$4042/oz, down -US$98 from yesterday. Silver is now just on US$57.50/oz, down -US$2.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are another +US$6 higher from yesterday at just on US$93/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$101.50/bbl and up +US$7. Hormuz transits are still just a trickle There have been no crude tankers and 5 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (5 dark with transponders off) and 8 entering for new loads (1 dark). The Red Sea is also now effectively blocked at Yemen although a small handful of ships are still getting through (less than 20 each way). More than 700 vessels are waiting for things to calm down. The Kiwi dollar is another -40 bps lower from yesterday at just over 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -40 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at just over 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.6 which is down -40 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,762 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been extreme at just on +/-7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    canada ai europe australia google china canadian gold tips global australian european union staying new zealand track bitcoin atlantic singapore bond silver south korea pacific markets usc aussie oil sees surge queensland red sea nasdaq yemen kiwi nsw western australia consensus kia volatility hormuz bulk oil prices financial markets ecb outbound us treasury in india gfc ust rba shutterstock aotearoa new zealand fdi sp500 twi labour market auc stagger atlanta fed june cpi freight rates
    The oil crisis isn't over yet

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 22, 2026 6:29


    Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news we may be facing a renewed oil supply shortage and this time reserves are at unusually low levels. The combined impacts of extended closures in the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea are mounting, and just as we thought the May-June stresses had faded. US mortgage applications rose slightly last week and that was despite an unexpected fall in refinance activity. But since mid-June this US housing market indicator has essentially been flat. And US mortgage rates are now at an 11 month high. US crude oil stocks rose unexpectedly last week when another fall was anticipated. Yes, it was minor, but still. Maybe it indicates that local production is rising faster than some assume. Or surging imports from Canada or Venezuela? Or maybe that demand is lackluster. Or all three. US Strategic Reserve levels fell again and to their lowest level since 1983. Today's US Treasury 20yr bond auction saw its yield surge through 5%, ending with a median yield of 5.12% and a high of 5.16%. That is up sharply from the prior equivalent event a month ago of 4.88%. And demand was lower too (-4%). It is quite the rate move. Not to be outdone, the overnight German 20 year bund auction rose to 3.60%, up from 3.38% a month ago. Across the Pacific, Japanese exports rose faster than expected in June, up more than +19% from a year earlier. The weak yen helped as did strong demand for electronics and other data center equipment. The June export level was their second highest on record, just a whisker off the March record. At the same time their imports surged as well, up +25% and also more than expected to a new record high, just eclipsing the October 2022 level. Oil prices were high but oil import volumes retreated. The net result was a modest but stable trade deficit in June (from May), but slightly worse than the small trade surplus in June a year ago. None of this helped the yen however because it fell to a 40 year low against the USD. Against the NZD it has only been this low in 2024 and 2007. In case anyone is still confused, or unaware, the Chinese regulator, China Securities Regulatory Commission, has been organising the SOE home team to bolster the Chinese stock markets recently, after they showed some negative indications. This has driven some good rises, but also a creeping state ownership in many listed Chinese companies. The Shanghai Composite closed up +1.8% yesterday, the Shenzhen Component was up +4.8%, while the ChiNext was up +7.1% and the STAR Market index jumped 8.8%. This is not to claim other governments don't manipulate markets; they do (Trump, Japan, etc.). But the Chinese moves don't seem sustainable unless the reasons for the dour conditions that prompted the artificial buying are resolved. In other economies, regulators would get punished by investors if issues aren't resolved. In China it is the other way around. The Philippine-China dispute about who controls the sea off the Philippine coast is taking an ugly turn with China posting racist trope video targeting Filipino's. It is unnecessary and grubby diplomacy. But 'going low' isn't something China invented. Surprising most observers, the Indonesian central bank did not raise its policy rate overnight following its June out-of-cycle shift higher. It judged that that earlier move was all that is needed at this time to defend the rupiah. In Australia, the latest update of the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, suggests growth there is stalling. While the latest growth pulse is still not overly weak it is broadly consistent with stalling activity through the middle of the year. Later today the June labour market report will be released in Australia. It is expected to show tame jobs growth. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.66%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday and matching its recent mid-May highs.  The price of gold has risen to US$4140/oz, up +US$71 from yesterday. Silver is now just on US$60/oz, up +US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are another +US$2.50 higher from yesterday at just under US$87/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$94/bbl and up +US$2. Hormuz transits are still just a trickle There have been just 2 crude tankers and 3 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (5 dark with transponders off) and 5 entering for new loads (3 dark). Three of these outbound ships were hit by missiles. The Red Sea is also now effectively blocked at Yemen although a small handful of ships are still getting through (less than 20 each way). More than 700 vessels are waiting for things to calm down. The Kiwi dollar is another -20 bps lower from yesterday at just over 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -10 bps at 83.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62 which is down -20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,141 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been low at just over +/-0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    canada donald trump australia china japan gold chinese german new zealand track bitcoin venezuela indonesia silver pacific surprising usc aussie oil usd red sea filipino yemen kiwi kia volatility hormuz black sea persian gulf us treasury ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand soe twi bond yields auc oil crisis nzd star market china securities regulatory commission
    New US tariffs awaited - with yawns

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 21, 2026 5:55


    Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news many countries are awaiting news of a new barrage of US tariffs, although the fear level is nowhere near as high this time as this weapon has proven relatively limp in the past, and mainly hurts US consumers. First today, the overnight dairy auction surprised somewhat with an end to the recent weakness, rising +1.5% in USD terms although down almost -1.0% in NZD terms on the firmer NZD. Perhaps surprisingly, milk fats did quite well, other than cheddar (-6.5%). Powders were all up. Some say that northern hemisphere heatwaves have buyers nervous that this will soon weigh on production levels there, so stocks are being built in case. In the US, the slower hiring trend that started in early May continued last week with the ADP weekly tracking reporting its lowest level since March, just after this weekly tracking series started. US timber prices are rising and quite sharply recently. That is because of forest fires in the US Pacific Northwest states, and in British Columbia, the main exporting Canadian province to the US. Trump's new tariffs on Canada are making things worse for US housebuilders. The early outcomes for the Q2-2026 earnings reporting season (with 10% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 88% of these companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 85% have reported a positive revenue surprise. The US summer holiday season is starting to peak now and will stay like this until early August. The season overall ends on their Labor Day on September 7. We note this because commercial activity is different during this period and financial market activity is lighter than usual. The same is true for Canada of course. But US border states are doing it tough because Canadians are choosing to avoid the US for their holidays as the insults and tariff actions from Trump's Washington swamp stay aggressive. In China, new stimulus is being rolled out. Its gigantic "Six Networks" buildout is getting a major boost as part of more infrastructure spending. Those six are: water networks (canals), power grids, data centers, 6G development, undergrounding pipelines, and supply-chain efficiency upgrades. But they are also trying to get their service sector re-energised as well with targeted 'investments'. Meanwhile, China is re-thinking its tax rebates that are driving its export competitiveness. It needs those funds for its domestic projects, and it doesn't need the international alarm their mercantalist export policies are creating. In Europe, the ECB's Q2 lending survey has found banks have tightened credit standards moderately for firms on higher perceived risks and lower risk tolerance. Corporate loan demand rose while demand for housing loans and consumer debt decreased. Interestingly, companies seeking green loans were found to have much better financial profiles. Germany's ZEW sentiment survey recovered notably in July after four months on weakness, and this is mirrored in their wider survey for the EU. The price of copper is rising again, getting near the record highs it posted at the start of the Iran-US conflict. Driving some of this are unusually low copper stocks in China. Meanwhile the FAO is reporting that hunger in the world fell again in 2025 and for a third consecutive year. Around 645 million people, or 7.8% of the world's population, experienced hunger last year, down from 8.1% in 2024 and 8.6% in 2022 The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.63%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday and approaching its recent mid-May highs.  The price of gold has risen to US$4069/oz, up +US$65 from yesterday. Silver is now just over US$58.50/oz, up +US$2 from yesterday. Oil prices are +US$1.50 higher from yesterday at just on US$84.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$92/bbl and up +US$3. Hormuz transits are still just a trickle There have been just 1 crude tanker and 3 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (4 dark with transponders off) and 11 entering for new loads (3 dark) and all this traffic is Iran-linked. The Red Sea is also now effectively blocked at Yemen. The Kiwi dollar is -20 bps lower from yesterday at just over 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -20 bps at 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.2 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,421 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just over +/-1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    canada donald trump europe china washington germany canadian gold european union new zealand iran track driving bitcoin corporate silver labor day usc aussie british columbia oil usd red sea yemen kiwi eps copper kia volatility hormuz sentiment adp s p awaited ecb fao new us 6g shutterstock aotearoa new zealand twi us tariffs world hunger iran us auc powders yawns nzd zew
    Hamilton Confidential, the Worldclear podcast, Episode 4

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2026 38:37


    Hamilton Confidential is a podcast about Worldclear Ltd, based on leaked documents from the New Zealand financial services provider. Obtained by Interest.co.nz and shared with the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, Lithuania's 15min.lt, the Belarusian Investigative Center, and Sweden's Expressen, the leak shows Worldclear processing money transfers for a colorful global clientele over a five year period. With a staff of no more than a dozen people, one internal document claims Worldclear had "grown to process about $500 million in payment values per year." Worldclear was found by Department of Internal Affairs supervisors to have failed to comply with several anti-money laundering requirements. And two minority Worldclear shareholders had convictions for financial crimes overseas, with one having an Interpol red notice out in his name for an unserved jail sentence in Panama for money laundering. There is no evidence that Worldclear or its staff knowingly facilitated financial crimes. David Hillary, Worldclear's founder and managing director, denied any wrongdoing by himself or the firm, saying neither had ever; “knowingly or recklessly facilitated criminal offending, acted for the purpose of assisting any person to commit an offence, or designed or operated services for the purpose of concealing the source, destination, or beneficial connection of illicit funds.” Here are the first four episodes in the series. Episode 1, What was Worldclear and what did it do? An overview of what Worldclear was, how it operated, who its customers and owners were, and why the story matters for New Zealand. Episode 2, Richard Whitham; from Hamilton to Changi prison. Featuring an interview with Richard Whitham, who worked for Worldclear as a banking relationships establishment project officer, and ended up spending more than two years in Changi prison. Whitham was the key source of the leak. Episode 3; International customers; Michael Wilson, Guenther Klar & Odebrecht Overseas Ltd. Featuring a customer wanted by the FBI who chartered a private jet and fled Canada for Vietnam, along with his wife, mother, and three dogs. A British citizen who was later convicted in Denmark of defrauding Danish tax authorities. And a Bahamas company whose Brazilian parent company had pleaded guilty in the US to involvement in a multi-billion dollar bribery scandal. Episode 4; The Belarus & Lithuanian connection. A discussion with Belarusian and Lithuanian journalists who worked on the investigation, looking at why the Worldclear leak is of interest in their countries, and what it's like to be a Belarusian investigative journalist working from exile. Podcast hosts Gareth Vaughan and Emanuel Stoakes, producer Erica Wood. Separate text stories published as part of the investigation can be found here. Interest.co.nz is grateful for funding support from the Brian Gaynor Business Journalism Initiative and the readers who Support us, in helping bring this project to fruition. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    canada british international new zealand fbi track vietnam sweden hamilton denmark brazilian panama danish bahamas separate lithuania confidential interpol money laundering lithuanian organized crime belarusian shutterstock internal affairs obtained expressen michael wilson changi corruption reporting project
    Hamilton Confidential, the Worldclear podcast, Episode 3

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2026 42:22


    Hamilton Confidential is a podcast about Worldclear Ltd, based on leaked documents from the New Zealand financial services provider. Obtained by Interest.co.nz and shared with the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, Lithuania's 15min.lt, the Belarusian Investigative Center, and Sweden's Expressen, the leak shows Worldclear processing money transfers for a colorful global clientele over a five year period. With a staff of no more than a dozen people, one internal document claims Worldclear had "grown to process about $500 million in payment values per year." Worldclear was found by Department of Internal Affairs supervisors to have failed to comply with several anti-money laundering requirements. And two minority Worldclear shareholders had convictions for financial crimes overseas, with one having an Interpol red notice out in his name for an unserved jail sentence in Panama for money laundering. There is no evidence that Worldclear or its staff knowingly facilitated financial crimes. David Hillary, Worldclear's founder and managing director, denied any wrongdoing by himself or the firm, saying neither had ever; “knowingly or recklessly facilitated criminal offending, acted for the purpose of assisting any person to commit an offence, or designed or operated services for the purpose of concealing the source, destination, or beneficial connection of illicit funds.” Here are the first four episodes in the series. Episode 1, What was Worldclear and what did it do? An overview of what Worldclear was, how it operated, who its customers and owners were, and why the story matters for New Zealand. Episode 2, Richard Whitham; from Hamilton to Changi prison. Featuring an interview with Richard Whitham, who worked for Worldclear as a banking relationships establishment project officer, and ended up spending more than two years in Changi prison. Whitham was the key source of the leak. Episode 3; International customers; Michael Wilson, Guenther Klar & Odebrecht Overseas Ltd. Featuring a customer wanted by the FBI who chartered a private jet and fled Canada for Vietnam, along with his wife, mother, and three dogs. A British citizen who was later convicted in Denmark of defrauding Danish tax authorities. And a Bahamas company whose Brazilian parent company had pleaded guilty in the US to involvement in a multi-billion dollar bribery scandal. Episode 4; The Belarus & Lithuanian connection. A discussion with Belarusian and Lithuanian journalists who worked on the investigation, looking at why the Worldclear leak is of interest in their countries, and what it's like to be a Belarusian investigative journalist working from exile. Podcast hosts Gareth Vaughan and Emanuel Stoakes, producer Erica Wood. Separate text stories published as part of the investigation can be found here. Interest.co.nz is grateful for funding support from the Brian Gaynor Business Journalism Initiative and the readers who Support us, in helping bring this project to fruition. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    canada british international new zealand fbi track vietnam sweden hamilton denmark brazilian panama danish bahamas separate lithuania confidential interpol money laundering lithuanian organized crime belarusian shutterstock internal affairs obtained expressen michael wilson changi corruption reporting project
    Hamilton Confidential, the Worldclear podcast, Episode 2

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2026 52:54


    Hamilton Confidential is a podcast about Worldclear Ltd, based on leaked documents from the New Zealand financial services provider. Obtained by Interest.co.nz and shared with the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, Lithuania's 15min.lt, the Belarusian Investigative Center, and Sweden's Expressen, the leak shows Worldclear processing money transfers for a colorful global clientele over a five year period. With a staff of no more than a dozen people, one internal document claims Worldclear had "grown to process about $500 million in payment values per year." Worldclear was found by Department of Internal Affairs supervisors to have failed to comply with several anti-money laundering requirements. And two minority Worldclear shareholders had convictions for financial crimes overseas, with one having an Interpol red notice out in his name for an unserved jail sentence in Panama for money laundering. There is no evidence that Worldclear or its staff knowingly facilitated financial crimes. David Hillary, Worldclear's founder and managing director, denied any wrongdoing by himself or the firm, saying neither had ever; “knowingly or recklessly facilitated criminal offending, acted for the purpose of assisting any person to commit an offence, or designed or operated services for the purpose of concealing the source, destination, or beneficial connection of illicit funds.” Here are the first four episodes in the series. Episode 1, What was Worldclear and what did it do? An overview of what Worldclear was, how it operated, who its customers and owners were, and why the story matters for New Zealand. Episode 2, Richard Whitham; from Hamilton to Changi prison. Featuring an interview with Richard Whitham, who worked for Worldclear as a banking relationships establishment project officer, and ended up spending more than two years in Changi prison. Whitham was the key source of the leak. Episode 3; International customers; Michael Wilson, Guenther Klar & Odebrecht Overseas Ltd. Featuring a customer wanted by the FBI who chartered a private jet and fled Canada for Vietnam, along with his wife, mother, and three dogs. A British citizen who was later convicted in Denmark of defrauding Danish tax authorities. And a Bahamas company whose Brazilian parent company had pleaded guilty in the US to involvement in a multi-billion dollar bribery scandal. Episode 4; The Belarus & Lithuanian connection. A discussion with Belarusian and Lithuanian journalists who worked on the investigation, looking at why the Worldclear leak is of interest in their countries, and what it's like to be a Belarusian investigative journalist working from exile. Podcast hosts Gareth Vaughan and Emanuel Stoakes, producer Erica Wood. Separate text stories published as part of the investigation can be found here. Interest.co.nz is grateful for funding support from the Brian Gaynor Business Journalism Initiative and the readers who Support us, in helping bring this project to fruition. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    canada british international new zealand fbi track vietnam sweden hamilton denmark brazilian panama danish bahamas separate lithuania confidential interpol money laundering lithuanian organized crime belarusian shutterstock internal affairs obtained expressen michael wilson changi corruption reporting project
    Hamilton Confidential, the Worldclear podcast, Episode 1

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2026 34:07


    Hamilton Confidential is a podcast about Worldclear Ltd, based on leaked documents from the New Zealand financial services provider. Obtained by Interest.co.nz and shared with the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, Lithuania's 15min.lt, the Belarusian Investigative Center, and Sweden's Expressen, the leak shows Worldclear processing money transfers for a colorful global clientele over a five year period. With a staff of no more than a dozen people, one internal document claims Worldclear had "grown to process about $500 million in payment values per year." Worldclear was found by Department of Internal Affairs supervisors to have failed to comply with several anti-money laundering requirements. And two minority Worldclear shareholders had convictions for financial crimes overseas, with one having an Interpol red notice out in his name for an unserved jail sentence in Panama for money laundering. There is no evidence that Worldclear or its staff knowingly facilitated financial crimes. David Hillary, Worldclear's founder and managing director, denied any wrongdoing by himself or the firm, saying neither had ever; “knowingly or recklessly facilitated criminal offending, acted for the purpose of assisting any person to commit an offence, or designed or operated services for the purpose of concealing the source, destination, or beneficial connection of illicit funds.” Here are the first four episodes in the series. Episode 1, What was Worldclear and what did it do? An overview of what Worldclear was, how it operated, who its customers and owners were, and why the story matters for New Zealand. Episode 2, Richard Whitham; from Hamilton to Changi prison. Featuring an interview with Richard Whitham, who worked for Worldclear as a banking relationships establishment project officer, and ended up spending more than two years in Changi prison. Whitham was the key source of the leak. Episode 3; International customers; Michael Wilson, Guenther Klar & Odebrecht Overseas Ltd. Featuring a customer wanted by the FBI who chartered a private jet and fled Canada for Vietnam, along with his wife, mother, and three dogs. A British citizen who was later convicted in Denmark of defrauding Danish tax authorities. And a Bahamas company whose Brazilian parent company had pleaded guilty in the US to involvement in a multi-billion dollar bribery scandal. Episode 4; The Belarus & Lithuanian connection. A discussion with Belarusian and Lithuanian journalists who worked on the investigation, looking at why the Worldclear leak is of interest in their countries, and what it's like to be a Belarusian investigative journalist working from exile. Podcast hosts Gareth Vaughan and Emanuel Stoakes, producer Erica Wood. Separate text stories published as part of the investigation can be found here. Interest.co.nz is grateful for funding support from the Brian Gaynor Business Journalism Initiative and the readers who Support us, in helping bring this project to fruition. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    canada british international new zealand fbi track vietnam sweden hamilton denmark brazilian panama danish bahamas separate lithuania confidential interpol money laundering lithuanian organized crime belarusian shutterstock internal affairs obtained expressen michael wilson changi corruption reporting project
    War and debt stresses grow

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2026 5:08


    Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the Yemeni Houthis have announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia but effectively closing the Red Sea. Elsewhere new mediation efforts are underway again. In the US, the Conference Board's leading indicator tracking turned negative in June. The shift down isn't a lot because it wasn't very positive in earlier months. But it is consistent with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking showing an exhaustion of the pace of the US expansion. Off balance sheet debt at the big US tech giants is exploding, making investment assessments harder to make. It is now an estimated US$1.65 tln as artificial intelligence investments ballooned, a Nikkei study shows, and now exceeds actual reported debt. The problem is particularly acute at Meta. These companies are about to report Q2-2026 results and these debt levels are sure to become an issue. The main way these debt obligations stay off balance sheets is via "innovative" lease transactions centered around timing issues. And US Big Tech valuations are also under threat from Chinese alternatives, especially the relatively new Moonshot K3 version. It is hard not to to get a sense that financial markets are facing a revaluation crisis in the tech sector. In Canada, their CPI inflation rate came in at 2.8% in June, with a core rate of 2.1%. Both these measures were lower than in May and slightly lower than expected. The Malaysian export boom is carrying on (+45% from June a year ago), especially for electronics (+57%) and petroleum (+56%), and especially to the US (+109%). But they needed all of that because imports surged sharply too, up 44% from a year ago. The People's Bank of China kept its key lending rates at record lows for a 14th straight month in July, as widely expected. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR), the benchmark for most corporate and household borrowing, was held at 3.0%, while the five-year LPR, a reference rate for mortgages, remained at 3.5%. However, rate cut expectations are rising there as their domestic economy slows. German producer prices were up a modest +1.8% in June from a year ago, similar to the prior two months. But this new level is in contrast to the PPI deflation they had reported for the earlier twelve consecutive months. A number of major countries are struggling to contain the devaluation of their currencies against the US dollar. Japan is seeing its currency at its weakest level since 1996. India is seeing levels back to near the record lows they had in mid-May. And Indonesia is battling record low levels as well. All these are major economies and all are trying to work what level of higher interest rate differential is needed to stabilise their situation. This is just part of a rising interest rate background, not helped by the prospect of higher US interest rates from their inability to tackle inflation effectively. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.60%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has slipped to US$4003/oz, down -US$14 from yesterday. Silver is now just under US$56.50/oz, up +50 USc from yesterday. Oil prices are +50 USc firmer from yesterday at just under US$83/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$89/bbl. Hormuz transits are still just a trickle There have been just 1 crude tanker and 5 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (4 dark with transponders off) and 8 entering for new loads (8 dark) and all this traffic is Iran-linked. The Kiwi dollar is marginally firmer from yesterday at just under 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 83.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.3 which is unchanged from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$65,541 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/-1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    canada china japan germany gold chinese german new zealand bank iran track bitcoin debt indonesia silver saudi arabia usc aussie oil big tech red sea yemen kiwi cpi kia volatility hormuz malaysian stresses ppi nikkei ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand conference board twi auc lpr atlanta fed gdpnow and indonesia
    Fires, fights & fragility undermine economic progress

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 19, 2026 8:03


    Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news it is a good job we have sports to allow us a temporary distraction from the geopolitical mess that the US has initiated and which seems to just go on and on. A shut Hormuz and a jump in oil prices is bringing Groundhog Day. Back in the economic world, Tuesday's June CPI release will dominate this week's local data releases. Markets expect an elevated 4% rate, keeping the pressure on the OCR and the RBNZ to contain it. Events in the Middle East aren't helping. The next OCR review is not until September 2 however. In Australia, it will be all about their June labour market release. Markets expect only modest jobs growth and no jobless rate change. But developments between the US and Iran will remain in the global spotlight after strikes escalated, impacting energy prices and interest rate outlooks for central banks. There is not much market-moving economic data expected from the US this week. But earnings season results will be watched for indications and surprises. In Japan, they will release trade and inflation updates (1.6%?). Taiwan will be interesting for its industrial production data. Korea for its Q1-2026 GDP outcome. And Indonesia will review its policy rate again, after the unusual interim hike, and then taking it to possibly 6%. For them it is all about supporting their weakening currency. There is little significant data out of China this week. However, here's something we haven't covered so far. Their June trade data for China shows that its crude oil imports are now at a ten year low. In fact their June crude oil imports were -11.4% lower than a year ago in volume terms. It is a shift that will have global implications. We can also note that China closed nearly 30,000 kindergartens and primary schools in 2025. It is the consequence of the growing demographic slump we have been noting for some time. Recent data released by the Ministry of Education revealed a severe structural divergence: while early childhood and primary education are shrinking rapidly, high schools and universities are expanding to absorb a demographic bulge from earlier birth peaks. Three Chinese airlines have ordered 95 Airbus commercial jets. This has swelled Airbus's non-US order book over rival Boeing. Airbus (89) delivered more aircraft than Boeing (64) in June. Boeing is losing market share fast for clients outside the US, no doubt a direct consequence of reactions to nativist policies from Washington and risks of trade retaliation. Singapore's export growth fell back sharply and unexpectedly in June. Electronics exports remained elevated, but non-electronics exports were unusually weak in the month. Their big decliners were for petrochemicals, food, and non-monetary gold. Trade with the US was especially hard hit. Across the Pacific in Canada, the spread of their enormous wildfires are becoming an international irritant. Canada is struggling to contain them. In an unusual move, the US is refusing to assist, even though Canada sends crews and support to the US when they have wildfire emergencies. There are also major wildfires in many US states as well. In the US housing starts in June which came in +3.6% higher than year ago levels and brushing off their unusually weak May report. But for all the positives that some Fed district factory surveys have shown, these are not showing up in US industrial production data yet. You might have thought the increased local stockpiling surge would be visible by now. But to June, it isn't. US industrial production rose a paltry +0.1% in June to be +1.1% higher than a year ago. And that is its weakest increase in three months. Although consumers are still very negative in their sentiment, there was a notable improvement in the latest survey results from the widely-respected and long running University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. With the second straight month of 10% jumps, consumer sentiment climbed to its least negative reading since February of this year on the basis of easing price pressures at the petrol pump in recent weeks. All five index components improved, led by significant 20% increases in buying conditions for durables as well as year-ahead business conditions. This month's rise in sentiment was consistent across the population, seen across groups by age, income, wealth, and political party. Will it last? If it truly is directly related to pump prices, then this weekend's outsized jump in crude oil prices (below) and the turn up in pump prices in the past few days, suggests not. Today's pump prices are almost back to month-ago levels when the sentiment survey hit its record lows. Looking backwards over the past month, US data has seen improvements. But these have not been enough to return the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking to where it was in May, so a sharp downshift is still in place. And it is worth noting that 'consensus forecasts' by mainstream economists have not yet reflected that retreat. The RBNZ also produces a GDP nowcast. After a somewhat unexpected blip up two weeks ago, the latest data has returned our Q2-2026 growth to a minimal level. The same for Q3-2026. (There is no Aussie GDP nowcast from an official institution. The Melbourne Institute version won't be updated until the end of the month.) In Australia, the latest weekend's residential auction activity was low, possibly back to levels they had in 2018. They are finally having the housing market correction necessary to address their affordability problems. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.55%, unchanged from this time Saturday, down a net -2 bps for the week.  The price of gold has risen to US$4017/oz, up +US$12 from Saturday but down -US$83 from a week ago. Silver is now just under US$56/oz, down -US$3.50 for the week. Oil prices are +50 USc firmer from Saturday, up +US$3.50 from Friday at just on US$82.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$88/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$71.50 and US$76 respectively so a +16% rise since then. Hormuz transits have been reduced to a trickle overnight There have been just 2 crude tankers and 7 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (4 dark with transponders off) and 9 entering for new loads (6 dark) and almost this traffic isl Iran-linked. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at just under 58.4 USc but up +80 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are still at 83.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also holding, at just on 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.3 which is unchanged from this time Saturday, up +80 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,542 and up +0.8% from this time Saturday, up +1.4% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/-0.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    university canada australia china education washington japan gold michigan ministry events new zealand progress iran trade middle east track bitcoin singapore silver korea economic taiwan pacific fights markets fires usc aussie fed oil boeing gdp groundhog day kiwi demographics electronics kia volatility hormuz airbus fragility oil prices ocr undermine ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand twi auc atlanta fed rbnz industrial production june cpi gdpnow melbourne institute and indonesia
    US equities fall away on rising risks

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 16, 2026 5:08


    Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US-Iran conflict seems to be intensifying. Market responses don't reflect that yet however. In the US, initial jobless claims rose last week to 245,000 but this was less of a rise than seasonal factors can account for. There are now 1.85 mln people on these benefits, less than year-ago levels. US retail sales were up a healthy +8.4% in June from a year ago but virtually unchanged from May. If you take out cars and petrol, then the rise is +5.7% from a year ago, and a fall from May. Still good, but boosted by their claimed +3.5% inflation. Online sales of electronics goods were particularly strong, suggesting buyers were looking to get ahead of tariff and trade impacts. Meanwhile, new order levels reported in the Philly Fed's July factory survey were impressive. But this came with a fall-away in sentiment about the future, and with unusually high input cost inflation. More signs of stockpiling behaviour. And US petrol prices are rising again. US homebuilder sentiment fell in July in the NAHB survey. Not by a lot, but keeping it in the depressed state this sector has been in since the pandemic. They have an input cost problem too. The other side of this industry is in lackluster conditions too. Pending home sales fell in June from May, and came in slightly lower than year-ago levels. That was their biggest retreat in six months. The weakness was broad based across the whole country. In Canada, their June housing starts were -13% lower than year-ago levels. These were weak in Vancouver with a big fall-off in multiunit construction, but quite strong in Toronto. In Korea, their central bank raised its policy rate yesterday, raising it from 2.5% to 2.75%. This was as expected however. It was their first rise in more than three years as it grapples with inflationary pressure at least partially stemming from a faster economic expansion. Their previous change was a cut of -25 bps in May 2025. In Australia, the respected Melbourne Institute survey of inflation expectations has come in with a 4.7% July result after it's 5.5% in June after topping out at 5.9% in April. Australia's official inflation was 4.0% in May after topping out at 4.2% in April. Their June CPI is due to be released on Wednesday, July 29. Global container freight rates stayed very high last week even though they dipped -2% from the prior week. That leaves them +75% higher than year-ago levels. Meanwhile bulk freight rates were little-changed over the past week to be +55% higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.57%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday.  Wall Street has started today with the S&P500 down -0.7% and the Nasdaq down -1.6%.  The price of gold has fallen to US$3984/oz, down -US$78 from yesterday. Silver is now just over US$55.50/oz, down -US$2 from yesterday. Oil prices are little-changed from yesterday at just on US$79/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still just under US$84.50/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed low overnight There have been just 3 crude tankers and 8 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (3 dark with transponders off) and 18 entering for new loads (5 dark) and almost all Iran-linked. More ships are exiting the Red Sea now, but much fewer want to enter. This rush out may be because Iran has told the Houthis to close the waterway if the US strikes Iran's civilian electricity network. The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at just under 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 83.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at just over 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.2 which is down -20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,111 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    canada australia online gold global toronto market new zealand iran rising track bitcoin vancouver silver korea risks south korea usc aussie oil red sea nasdaq kiwi kia volatility hormuz houthis pending us iran ust retail sales shutterstock aotearoa new zealand fall away sp500 twi auc jobless claims nahb us equities inflation expectations melbourne institute
    Running on empty?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 15, 2026 6:36


    Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news there is a growing sense that the world is close to running on empty the longer the US-Iran flareup carries on. But markets are ignoring that risk. In the US producer prices fell -0.3% in June from May, marking the first decline since August 2025 and an unexpected dip. A sharp decline in energy prices is getting the credit and the fact that energy risks are still around is being ignored. From a year ago US PPI was up +5.5%. Without that, the core index rose +0.2%, to be +4.7% higher than a year ago. The New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped 10 points to +15.6 in July 2026, signaling a significant pickup in business activity across New York State. Price increases remained elevated and supply availability continued to worsen, they said. The region is in a stockpiling mode, still expecting more cost impacts from tariffs. (Although the New York Fed boss indicated they are looking through these likely impacts. However, not every Fed member is so sanguine.) The July Fed Beige Book reported "modest to moderate" activity, with prices rising, with greater price sensitivity among consumers. US crude stocks fell again although not be as much as was expected this week. Their strategic reserves show not letup in their draining track. Across the northern border, the Bank of Canada left the target for its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% for a sixth consecutive decision in July 2026, and as expected. But they are seeing an improved economic outlook, however. Across the Pacific and after impressing in April, Japanese machinery orders took an outsized tumble in May. down -12.4% from April and far worse than market forecasts for a -4.2% decline. It seems a broad-based weakness in business investment is setting in. Orders from manufacturers dropped -14.9% (vs 5.1% in April), while non-manufacturing orders fell -9.3% (vs 6.7%). Chinese house prices are still falling but at a slower pace now as background support measures and market cleanup activity is putting a floor under this weakness. China's new home prices across 70 cities fell -3.3% in June from a year ago, the mildest contraction since February. Shanghai was a standout with a +3.1% rise on that same basis, the only one with a measurable gain. Meanwhile, pre-owned home sales prices fell almost -6% on the same basis, and resale prices in Shanghai were negative too. Retail sales in China were up +1.0% in June from a year ago, restrained in large part by shrinking retail sales of cars. Without that, sales would have been up +3.0%, just enough to be higher than their CPI inflation. Industrial production in China rose +5.3% in June, its fastest pace in three months. Meanwhile, electricity production, which some think is a more realistic indicator of industrial activity because it is less susceptible to regional manipulation, rose +2.0% in June from the same month a year ago. Through all of this, China said its economic activity was up +4.3% in June from Q2-2025. This was slower than the +5.0% in Q1-2026 and lower than the anticipated +4.5% that analysts had forecast. And it is its slowest since Q4-2022, and prior to that pandemic interruption, the slowest since 1990. The uneven results posted today won't reassure Beijing. Markets are thinking they will announce new stimulus soon. China's new bank lending came in at ¥1.61 tln in June, much more than the very weak ¥520 bln in May, but well below both year-ago levels and the expected ¥2 tln rise. Bank debt growth typically accelerates in June as banks step up lending activity to meet their quarterly targets, but loan demand remains subdued in 2026. This is adding to expectations of new stimulus measures from Beijing. Yesterday's news of the arrival of bird flu in New Zealand likely shows that Australia's monitoring is likely very inadequate. They say Australia has 14 confirmed detections of H5 bird flu in wild birds. There are eight confirmed in Western Australia, five in South Australia and one in New South Wales. These are probably just the tip of the iceberg. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.54%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has firmed slightly to US$4061/oz, little-changed from yesterday. Silver is now just under US$57.50/oz, down -US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$79/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$84.50/bbl. Hormuz transits have risen overnight There have been just 3 crude tankers and 15 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and 23 entering for new loads (9 dark) and most Iran-linked. More ships are crossing the Red Sea as well. The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday at just under 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 83.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +20 bps at just on 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.4 which is up +40 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,950 and up +0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-0.8%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    canada australia china japan gold chinese japanese price new zealand bank iran track bitcoin silver retail pacific markets usc aussie beijing industrial fed shanghai oil gdp red sea orders new york state kiwi new south wales western australia south australia cpi kia volatility hormuz chine bird flu running on empty ppi us iran ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand twi auc new york fed h5 beige book us ppi
    Trump backs down on Hormuz tolls

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 14, 2026 6:25


    Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of more Trump flip-flops in haphazard moves that show Trump has no strategy or exit plan from the mess he created in the Middle East. But first, there was a Pulse dairy auction overnight and prices mostly dipped from last week's full event. Both butter and SMP dipped -0.4%, but the exception was WMP which rose +0.3%. The recently higher NZD has made those changes less in local currency, reinforcing the Fonterra payout reduction. Elsewhere, the US released its June CPI result with a somewhat surprising dip with it falling to 3.5% after May's three year high 4.2%. Markets had expected a lesser dip to 3.8%. The biggest retreat was the -9.7% fall in petrol prices (although this monitoring only recorded a +6.8% fall). Inflation was on the mind of Fed speakers overnight, especially Kevin Warsh, who reiterated his commitment to fighting inflation saying he had "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation". But he had no details or plans on how he is to tackle inflation. He was presenting the Fed's semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. The Fed's target is inflation at 2% and it has been above that for 63 consecutive months now, so the credibility of achieving that target is not high. The ADP weekly private jobs monitoring fell again, now under +20,000 and the first time it has reported a gain that low since mid-March. It has been tracking lower since early May. The lower fuel costs shifted the needle in the NFIB sentiment survey for SMEs, resulting in a less-negative June result. But these same respondents cited inflation as their biggest threat, the highest since October 2024. Yesterday, big US banks reported strong earnings gains, helped by their role in the Big Tech IPOs and other tech fundraising. Singapore said its economic activity was +5.7% higher in Q2-2026 than in the same quarter in 2025. While this was a bit less than the +6.3% first quarter result, it was above the expected +5.5% outcome. China said its June exports were up a remarkable +27% from the same month a year ago, driven by US companies stockpiling ahead of the expected inflationary effects of upcoming producer price inflation from the Middle East shocks, and by China's push to export cars, and far more than the +18% expected. It also said its imports were +36% higher than a year ago, driven by crude oil imports. That all meant that it had a near record trade surplus of +US$126 bln in June, only exceeded by the January 2025 +US$136 bln in that month. In Australia, the Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey became less pessimistic in July, mainly because their fuel price pressures eased - and their interest rate fears moderated as well. Job loss concerns eased too. But consumers remained gloomy about the economy overall and that meant they don't think now is a good time to buy a major appliance. And, although it recovered somewhat from very low levels, Aussies are still very uncertain where their housing market is going. The story was quite similar for business sentiment in July as reported by the NAB survey. However, this one reported a sharper-than-expected improvement even if it is still negative. Price pressures also moderated, with input price growth slowing to its weakest pace since February and retail prices falling for the first time in seven years. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.57%, down -4 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has risen to US$4059/oz, up +US$66/oz from yesterday. Silver is now just under US$59/oz, up +US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +US$1.5o from yesterday at just on US$78.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$84/bbl and up +US$2. Hormuz transits have essentially dried up as the hot conflict explodes again and Iran declaring the Strait 'closed'. There have been just 3 crude tankers and 7 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours and all of those tied to Iran (1 dark with transponders off) but only 9 entering for new loads, all Iran-linked (1 dark). No-one was prepared to pay Trump's tolls, so Trump backed down (in a weird rambling announcement), less than 24 hours after announcing the levies. It is unknown if any are paying Iran's tolls. Plans to build pipelines to avoid the area are getting new momentum now. So Iran is shifting its focus to blockading the Red Sea at Yemen. The Kiwi dollar is up +50 bps from yesterday at just over 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +40 bps at just on 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62 which is up +50 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,477 and up +4.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    donald trump australia china gold price new zealand congress iran middle east track bitcoin singapore inflation silver markets usc aussie plans fed oil gdp pulse red sea yemen kiwi backs strait smes kia volatility hormuz aussies sentiment adp oil prices nab exports tolls ust kevin warsh shutterstock aotearoa new zealand smp twi auc nfib fonterra nzd june cpi wmp
    The oil price jumps on latest tension

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 13, 2026 4:27


    Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that at the close of business today in New York, the Q2-2026 earnings season will kick off with major banks JP Morgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo leading the pack. They will be reporting into a market that is jittery over the rebounding crisis in the Middle East. Adding to the confusion, Trump said the US is imposing a 20% toll on all ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. That will close all traffic except Iranian-linked vessels. Separately, yesterday tech stocks from New York to Shanghai all took a beating. Meanwhile, US Fed governor Waller spoke today, emphasising he is watching the inflation signals closely and warning that more rate hikes may be necessary. He warned about the impact of "tariffs, energy prices, and spillovers from demand for the AI buildout". But he is wary of recent history, acknowledging that this evolving situation has different risks and "we shouldn't fight the last war" on inflation. We are seeing a long-time dove turning hawkish on the need for action on inflation. That comes as the US federal government posted a much wider deficit than expected, boosted by tariff refunds. Over the past nine months, that deficit has swelled to -US$1.36 tln on track for another unsustainable record, only one Trump could engineer with his dodgy fiscal strategies. In India, CPI inflation rose to 4.4% in June, its highest since December 2024 and slightly more than expected. Food prices rose +5.3% with tomato prices up almost a third on this year-on-year basis. In China, their climate and weather authorities are warning that there is an elevated chance of more serious storms this year. They have just had their first major one, and they say more than six national emergency level storms are expected before the end of their summer. In Australia, we should probably note that the Xero CEO has sold all her own shares in the company, a somewhat startling signal. Meanwhile OPEC is also turning glum. Their July Monthly Oil Market Report lowered the 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 780,000 bpd, citing economic instability from the geopolitical conflict. They see reduced demand in major markets. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.61%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has fallen to US$3994/oz, down -US$126/oz from yesterday. Silver is now just under US$57.50/oz, down -US$2.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +US$6 from yesterday at just on US$77/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$82/bbl. Hormuz transits have essentially dried up as the hot conflict explodes again and Iran declaring the Strait 'closed'. There have been just 6 crude tankers (1) and 5 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours and 5 of those tied to Iran (0 dark with transponders off) but only 5 entering for new loads, all Iran-linked (1 dark). The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from yesterday at just under 57.6 USc. But against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 83.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.5 which is the same as this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$61,935 and down -3.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just under +/- 1.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    america new york ai donald trump australia china food gold new zealand bank iran middle east track bitcoin silver usc aussie tension iranians shanghai oil jp morgan kiwi wells fargo cpi strait kia volatility hormuz jumps waller oil prices xero in india strait of hormuz ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand twi us fed auc cpi inflation christopher waller
    'Strategy' beating 'firepower'

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 12, 2026 7:07


    Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the Hormuz Strait is effectively shut again with Iran's 'strategy' winning against the US 'firepower'. It is hard to think of any other politician trashing their advantage perceptions so completely. There will be long historical echoes from all this ineffective breast-beating. But elsewhere and locally, this week will bring updates to our migration and travel data, indicators of June retail activity, and early signals of June inflation. We will also get an look at business sentiment, and likely get the June REINZ update. In Australia, they will chime in with their June labour market updates, after updates for consumer and business sentiment. In the US, apart from Trump's wars, investors will turn their attention to the Q2 earnings season, and a steady stream on important economic data that includes their CPI, retail sales and consumer sentiment updates. Fed boss Warsh will be briefing Congress and that will be interesting too, especially about his views on 'reform'. Canada will be reviewing their central bank's policy rate this week, although no change from the 2.25% is anticipated In Japan, it will be about machinery orders and industrial production with eyes also firmly focused on their currency - which will also impact their fast-rising interest rates. In China, it will be a busy week of June economic data releases including for trade, and debt, and highlighted by their Q2-2026 GDP growth rate. Over the weekend, in the fiercely competitive Chinese car market, they reported 2.8 mln vehicle sales in June which was somewhat unexpected because a dip from May was anticipated. But it is a -3% dip from year-ago June sales levels. That pushes their twelve month sales to 33.8 mln units, up from 33.0 mln in the prior equivalent year. Car exports rose above 1 mln units in June, the first time that level has been achieved as it floods global markets. It is storm season in China again, and severe flooding has hit a number of regions, enough to concentrate minds in Beijing. Elsewhere, China has banned the export of helium. Actually, the re-export of helium because it gets most of it from Russia. The Middle East conflict has restricted supply from there, and tech users in Europe and Asia are now in a tough spot, as are medical users everywhere. China is conserving its Russian imports for its own tech industry Japan is reporting that their producer prices rose +7.1% in June from a year ago, accelerating from an upwardly revised +6.6% increase in May and above market expectations of a +6.8% gain. It is the fastest annual increase since March 2023. Higher energy prices following supply chain disruptions linked to the war in Iran are driving this, of course. And Japan's finance minister said they want to steer their state pension funds to "substantially" increase investments in domestic assets. This brought a sharp immediate reaction in both their currency and bond markets, due to the expected size of the shift. The yen gained, or at least it halted its fall, and their bond yields fell sharply (see below). Elsewhere, in the US initial jobless claims rose by +224,500 and about what seasonal factors can account for. There are now 1.767 mln people on these benefits, less than year-ago levels. After the good May rebound, existing home sales in the US fell back to average levels, and to levels lower than a year ago. The median price is up only +1.8% from a year ago. That modest rise is less than income growth, so overall affordability is getting a chance to recover there. On Wall Street, South Korean computer chip maker SK Hynix has raised US$26.5 bln in its New York IPO, the largest ever listing by a foreign firm in the US. SK Hynix is a key supplier to AI chip giant Nvidia. In Canada, their payrolls rose a minor +18,200 in June, slightly better than the expected +10,000, and holding on to the +88,000 gain in May. The June gain was all about a strong rise in the private sector (+32,000) which consolidated the good May private sector rise (+56,000). But most of the net June gain was from part-time employment. These positive shifts in June may have something to do with hiring for the football World Cup events. Global container freight rates rose another +2% last week to be +74% higher than year-ago levels, mostly about outbound freight rates from China to the US where demand is still high. Bulk cargo freight rates pushed higher too. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.56%, unchanged from this time Saturday but up +7 bps for the week. The price of gold has risen to US$4119/oz, up +US$19/oz from Saturday, but down -US$55 from a week ago. Silver is now just under US$60/oz, up +50 USc from Saturday, down -US$2.50 from a week ago. Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday at just on US$71.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just onUS$76/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$68.50 and US$72/bbl. Hormuz transits have dived sharply as the hot conflict explodes again and Iran declaring the Strait 'closed'. There have been just 12 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours and 5 of those tied to Iran (5 dark with transponders off) but only 9 entering for new loads, again mostly Iran-linked (3 dark). The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at just over 57.6 USc, up +50 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.5 which is the same as this time Saturday, up +60 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,084 and up +0.6% from this time Saturday, up +2.9% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Tuesday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    canada ai donald trump europe australia china strategy japan russia gold chinese global russian new zealand congress iran middle east track bitcoin world cup silver car usc beating aussie beijing fed oil gdp nvidia kiwi south koreans cpi strait kia volatility hormuz bulk helium oil prices ppi yen firepower strait of hormuz ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand warsh twi auc sk hynix jpy on wall street freight rates
    Renewed hot conflict queers the global economic pitch

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 8, 2026 5:50


    Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the oil price, and benchmark interest rates have both risen on the renewed tensions between the US and Iran. But first today, the IMF has updated its global economic forecasts, and they are virtually unchanged from the main release in April. They note the world economy's stronger-than-expected resilience to the Iran war and robust AI-related investment. They see global growth coming in at +3.0% in 2026 with the 2027 growth outlook revised up to marginally 3.4% from 3.2%. Despite the slight upgrades, the IMF warned that risks remain tilted to the downside, and the full economic impact of elevated tensions, including renewed US-Iran strikes, are still to be revealed. Global headline inflation is now expected to reach 4.7% in 2026, up from 4.1% in 2025, before easing to 3.9% in 2027. Australia gets little mention in this update except to note that its 2026 growth is forecast to come in at +1.9% (down -0.1%) and 2027 at +1.7% (unchanged). New Zealand gets no mention at all. For the US it is +2.3% and +2.2% for the same two year, both unchanged. For China it is +4.6% and +4.1% (marginally higher). For Japan it is +0.6% and +0.7% (little-changed). Malaysia was noted as a positive mover where their economy is projected to grow at a rate of +4.7% in 2026, benefiting from data center activity and the upturn in the global technology cycle. US mortgage applications fell again last week, especially refinance applications. US crude oil stocksactually rose last week with a modest gain which ended a ten consecutive string of declines. But their strategic oil reserve continued to fall at the same fast pace. The modest US consumer debt expansion recorded to April shrank to nothing in May, an unexpected weakness, and a significant variation from the continued expansion expected. However a one month hesitation occurs occasionally so we will need to wait for the June release to know if this is a significant indicator. The big mover was a sharp fall in credit cards and other revolving debt, also quite unexpected. The minutes of the June Fed meeting were released today, revealing that most officials broadly agreed they would need to raise interest rates if inflation remained elevated this year due to the war in the Middle East, tariffs, or strong demand from the AI-driven investment boom. And that included new boss Kevin Warsh. In Japan, their official sentiment survey of professionals recovered in June after three prior months of downbeat views In Australia, rents are rising faster, especially house rents. The increase was both stronger than seasonal norms and relatively abrupt in some cities, pointing to a step-change in pricing behaviour rather than a gradual tightening in market conditions. In a now somewhat dated update due to the renewed Middle East hot conflict, the New York Fed's global supply chain pressure index eased back in June after its April and May spikes. (Of course, with today's resumption by the US of its bombing of Iran, this is likely to flare up again in July.) The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.56%, up +8 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has fallen to US$4067/oz, down -US$78/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$58.50/oz, down -US$2.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +US$3 from yesterday at just on US$73.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$78/bbl and up +US$4. Hormuz transits have picked up sharply in a rush to get out despite the risks and renewed uncertainties with 35 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (8 dark with transponders off) but only 16 entering for new loads (2 dark). Interestingly. All this comes as attacks on ships in transit become daily events, so the rise in oil prices isn't surprising. Red Sea activity near Yemen has fallen again to even lower levels on added risks there too. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just over 57 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.9 which is up +20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$62,052 and down -3.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and because tomorrow is a public holiday in New Zealand, Matariki, we'll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    ai australia china japan gold global new zealand iran middle east track bitcoin silver economic pitch usc aussie oil malaysia red sea renewed yemen kiwi imf kia volatility hormuz rents oil prices queers us iran ust kevin warsh shutterstock aotearoa new zealand twi bond yields auc matariki new york fed
    Investors hesitate and reassess

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 7, 2026 5:22


    Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news renewed Hormuz attacks are raising oil prices and interest rates today, not helped by a pullback in tech stocks. But first today, there was another dairy auction overnight, a full one with new season volumes returning. But this one came in sharply lower, down -4.9% on USD terms although only a -2.5% retreat in NZD terms. Among the results, there was a notable -4.4% fall for WMP, a -7.0% fall for SMP, a -5% fall for butter and a large -12.3% fall for cheddar cheese. A few of the minor categories gained. But these falls were larger than the futures market was pricing in, so you have to say they are 'larger than expected'. While the new lower levels aren't that special in a longer perspective, the speed of the falls is concerning and analysts will be re-assessing their payout forecasts. In the US, the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose in July to a better than expected level but it is still well below the average over the past year and below its long term norm. Meanwhile, American consumer inflation expectations rose when a small dip was anticipated. It is now at 3.7%, its highest since September 2023 and is rising even though expectations for lower petrol prices are included in these results. The weekly private jobs growth monitoring by ADP shows a smaller rise ;last week than they have recorded in the past 15 week, since mid-March in fact. And the trend has been down for seven straight weeks. This is consistent with the easing that the official non-farm payrolls report showed for June. The US Logistics Managers Index rose again in June and to its highest since March 2022, driven by three factors; anticipation of more tariff action from Trump, stockpiling to get ahead of inflation, and an expectation that the end of year retail season will be 'normal'. US exports weakened in May and imports rose in the same time in the broader trade result that includes both goods and services, delivering a sharp rise in their deficit and their highest in over a year. This result matched the recent report of merchandise trade but brings their services trade into the picture. Meanwhile Canada reported rising exports and stable imports to give them a larger trade surplus in May. China said its foreign exchange reserves dipped slightly in June from their unusually high May levels. Part of this was due to the retreat in the gold price. But their central bank continued its gold-buying streak for a 20th month, with reserves reaching 75.44 million troy ounces by June's end, up from 74.96 million in May. China's excavator sales are rebounding, up by more than a third in June from a year ago, driven by major projects. New data out yesterday paints a much improved picture for Japanese household spending in May as households started to get their mojo back. And don't overlook that this was in the middle of the Trump Gulf War uncertainties. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.54%, up +6 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has slipped to US$4146/oz, down -US$13/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$61/oz, down -US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +US$2 from yesterday at just under US$70.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$74/bbl. Hormuz transits have picked up sharply despite renewed uncertainties with 27 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (4 dark with transponders off) but only 18 entering for new loads (4 dark). Interestingly. All this comes as attacks on ships in transit become daily events, so the rise in oil prices isn't surprising. Red Sea activity near Yemen has fallen again to even lower levels on added risks there too. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.7 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,063 and up +0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.3%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    american canada donald trump china japan gold japanese new zealand track bitcoin investors silver usc aussie oil usd red sea yemen kiwi kia volatility hormuz adp oil prices strait of hormuz ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand smp hesitate reassess twi auc inflation expectations nzd wmp
    Global economic pressures ease

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 6, 2026 5:25


    Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that now the Hormiz situation is settling down somewhat with oil prices easing, the global economy seems to be responding with a better outlook. First today, the widely-watched US ISM services PMI came in at a good level for June even if slightly softer than for May. Price pressures eased slightly, new business stayed at good levels even if less than for May, but employment was stronger even if it is still the weakest component. This Overall services measure has been at or about this level for seven months now is a relatively settled state. It is much more in positive territory than the S&P Global services PMI for the US. The S&P Global services June PMI for Canada is negative after a fall from May's small (but rare) expansion. Business activity weakened as new orders fell for a second straight month, with firms citing high prices and geopolitical uncertainty as key factors weighing on domestic and foreign demand. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada's June quarter Business Outlook survey found similar views. Overall business sentiment has deteriorated after improving over the past three quarters. Sales outlooks have softened slightly, but firms' export outlooks have improved. Fewer firms said trade uncertainty and hesitancy among US customers are constraining exports, and more firms reported strong demand for commodity exports. Most firms did not report binding capacity constraints or labour shortages. Meanwhile a companion consumer survey shows inflation expectations are now over 3% there and right at the top of its target range of 1-3%. Singapore reported its May retail sales data overnight and it wasn't positive. Of course, this was during the height of the Middle East uncertainties. In China, a private bank in Wuhan with US$19 bln in assets has collapsed and been taken over by regulators. While it isn't a large institution, others are saying it won't be an isolated event among regional banks. (For comparative reference, the US FDIC has dealt with two US banks in 2026 that have failed.) And according to research by a Japanese consultancy, Chinese banks and tech companies led the world in applications for financial technology patents over the last decade, surpassing the US in a field that supports a wide range of financial services from lending and asset management to cryptocurrencies. They examined fintech-related patent filings in 118 countries and regions in the 10 years through 2025, working with Tokyo-based research firm Patent Result. The total tally reached roughly 120,000, nearly triple the number in the preceding decade. Also for May, the EU posted its producer price data, showing a rising +5.7% level from a year ago and driven by higher energy costs. But they also released May retail sales data and perhaps surprisingly, these rose on a real basis, up a creditable +1.9% from a year ago on a price-adjusted basis. In Australia, the Melbourne Institute survey of inflation expectations eased back slightly to 5.5% after the March spike that was rose again in April. But it has eased from there, and slipped again in June. Wage expectations, by comparison, have remained unchanged for the past seven months. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.48%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has slipped to US$4158/oz, down -US$15/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$62.50/oz, down -50 USc from yesterday. Oil prices are down -50 USc from yesterday at just under US$68.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$72/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed low on renewed uncertainties with just 16 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (0 dark with transponders off) but 20 entering for new loads (5 dark). Interestingly, Red Sea activity near Yemen has fallen to similarly low levels on added risks there. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 57 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.8 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,554 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    canada australia business china gold chinese global sales japanese european union price new zealand bank middle east track bitcoin tokyo singapore silver economic usc aussie ease oil red sea wuhan yemen kiwi pressures wage kia volatility hormuz pmi ppi ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand twi auc s p global inflation expectations melbourne institute
    OPEC wants higher production

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 5, 2026 6:37


    Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news an OPEC decision overnight may bring lower fuel prices much sooner. But then, this will depend on the volume of Hormuz crossings. But first, this coming week locally will be dominated by the RBNZ's OCR review on Wednesday. Economists are divided on whether an inflation-fighting hike will come, and financial markets are pricing one in at 76%. The split voting at the May 27 review, where the external members all wanted a hike, but the majority internal members didn't, is just as likely to be repeated. ASB is saying that locally, easing oil prices have strengthened our economic outlook and reduced the risk of a prolonged inflation shock. Lower fuel costs and stronger than expected economic momentum have put the recovery back on a firmer footing. In Australia, the data out this week will be mainly about the Melbourne Institute's monthly inflation gauge, and about job ad changes. In the US, their data releases will focus on service sector activity and existing home sales as they, like Europe, start to battle excessively hot conditions. In Japan, the focus will be on defending the yen. They will also release June machine tool order data. China will release June CPI and PPI data this week. Over the weekend, China released their unofficial services PMI and it came in quite positive for June, similar to May. Growth rates for activity and new business remain strong. They recorded the strongest rise in employment since July 2024 and the fastest input cost inflation in over two years. Service sector firms there are optimistic about the immediate future. The overall result was better than the official China services PMI. In Japan, their services PMI returned to growth in June, but cost pressures intensified, but here business confidence remained subdued. Which is in contrast to their quite positive factory PMI. In South Korea we should probably note a very bumpy run recently by their stock market. It is dominated by major technology and semiconductor companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, so it is like the Nasdaq on steroids. This gives it unusual volatility, and that volatility has been on display in the past two weeks. This market hit a new record high on June 22 but has fallen -11% since. On Friday, it rose +5.8% however but even that still left it down -3% for the week. Over the past year, this equity market has risen a stunning +165% with most of it in 2026 and most of it tech-related. In Vietnam, they posted a high Q2-2026 growth rate of +8.4%, building on their +7.8% Q1-2026 rate. (How can they report so quickly?) But this latest result will disappoint them because they have set a 2026 target of +10% and that now looks unlikely to be achieved, derailed somewhat by the Middle East conflict, also by missing their infrastructure build-out targets. Inflation eased to 4.7% in June from May's 5.6%, moving closer to the government's 4.5% inflation target this year. The World Bank has now reclassified Vietnam as an upper-middle-income economy, effective July 1. The FAO global Food Price Index retreated for a second consecutive month in June, led down by falling cereals prices as harvests stay high, despite concerns in the US and Australia. Dairy prices eased slightly too, but meat prices stayed elevated. However it is vegetable oil prices that are keeping this index from falling faster. In the US, the latest update of the AtlantaFed's GDPNow tracking reveals a sudden turn from high optimism about economic expansion, to a dour outlook. It has been rare that this model has come in lower than 'consensus' forecasts. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.49%, unchanged from this time Saturday but a +12 bps rise from this time last week.  The price of gold has risen to US$4174/oz, unchanged from Saturday, up +US$100 from a week ago. Silver is now under US$62.50/oz, unchanged from Saturday too, up +US$3.50/oz for the week. Oil prices are little-changed but slightly firmer from Saturday at just under US$69/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still at US$72/bbl. Hormuz transits picked up Friday but then on renewed uncertainties fell back again over the weekend with just 10 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 19 hours (1 dark with transponders off) but 15 entering for new loads (1 dark). Large tankers which are exiting are now choosing to do so in Oman-controlled lanes. And we should probably note attacks on a ships in the Red Sea near Yemen over the weekend, adding another layer of uncertainty. OPEC met over the weekend, and raised output by +188,000 barrels/day. They have Middle East members who need maximum revenues to recover from the conflict. So we may end up awash in oil and sharply lower prices. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time Saturday at just over 57.1 USc, up +70 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are still at just on 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.9 which is unchanged from this time Saturday, up +60 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$62,563 and up +0.7% from this time Saturday, but up almost +4% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.8%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    europe australia china growth japan service gold new zealand middle east track bitcoin vietnam production large inflation silver south korea lower usc aussie economists oil red sea nasdaq yemen world bank kiwi dairy oman kia volatility hormuz opec pmi ocr ppi fao ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand asb twi samsung electronics auc sk hynix rbnz june cpi gdpnow melbourne institute food price index
    US data weakens sharply

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 2, 2026 6:01


    Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of a surprisingly weak American jobs report for June. There is no World Cup bounce there. And economists are divided over whether Federal Reserve policymakers will be holding rates steady, lifting or lowering them over the next six months based on this latest data. The US economy added just +57,000 jobs in June, the weakest gain in four months and far below expectations of +110,000. Their labour force participation rate dropped sharply to 61.5%, its lowest since early 2021. But seasonal adjustment has a lot to do with these headline results and the actual payroll change isn't anywhere near as weak. However, when you broaden this view to everyone in employment, not just those on a company payroll, things don't look so good. There are now 162.7 mln people in employment in June, down -175,000 from May and down -1.2 mln from June a year ago. In fact, that employed civilian workforce level is their lowest since the end of 2024. US jobless claims rose last week, but only marginally and by about what seasonal factors would have accounted for. There are now 1.76 mln people on these benefits, pressed lower by much tighter entitlement standards, which is consistent with the employment drop. US factory orders fell -1.3% in May and were down -4.5% for durable goods orders. But this needs to be seen in the context of rises in the prior three months, and April was revised higher. From a year ago though, the value of these factory orders were up only +1.8% overall but down -4.3% for durable goods. Given producer price inflation has been high over this period (+6.5%), these are terrible results. And surprising given the factory PMI data, so we should be sceptical of them. But don't forget this data is from agencies with imposed partisan leadership that replaced professional leadership when the President didn't like their earlier data. Meanwhile US vehicle sales rose in June to an annualised rate of 16.5 mln, a rise from May and from June a year ago. So that demand may improve their factory order data for June. The US vehicle market is about half the size of the Chinese equivalent (which currently runs at a 31 mln annualised sales rate). We got all this data today because tomorrow they will be on holiday for their 250th Fourth of July celebrations. It is a milestone worth celebrating but the background economy will likely take the gloss of it for those negatively affected. In China, those huge vehicle sales numbers mask structural problems. Prices have been low to build volume, but few of these manufacturers are profitable. A dramatic shakeout is coming because sales volumes are falling now. And that is already having implications for their steel industry, among others. In Australia, their May exports fell -6.9% from April to be just +3.1% higher than a year ago. Their imports were +2.6% higher than April to be up +13.9% from a year ago. So their merchandise trade balance shrank to -AU$1.7 bln in May, their first deficit since January 2018. They also reported that after hitting AU$7.9 bln in February, their gold exports retreated to just AU$4.5 bln in May. Global container freight rates rose +9% last week to be +61% higher than year-ago levels. This is all about demand for outbound cargo space out of China. Bulk cargo rates fell -2.8% last week to be +72% higher than year-ago levels, although that low base will rise quickly in future weeks. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.48%, unchanged from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has risen to US$4106/oz, up a net +US$36/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$60.50/oz, up +50 USc from a day ago. Oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$68.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is unchanged at US$71.50/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed at their lower level after the recent volatility & uncertainties with just 19 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and 24 entering for new loads (3 dark). Over 84% of vessel movements are related to cargoes headed to China, Russia or are Iran-linked. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just over 56.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.8 which is up another +10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$61,635 and up +2.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at just under +/- 2.1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    american president australia china russia gold chinese data global new zealand iran track bitcoin world cup silver usc aussie prices oil federal reserve kiwi kia volatility hormuz bulk pmi ppi ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand carsales sharply twi auc trade deficit
    Markets sceptical of Warsh's rosy outlook

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 1, 2026 7:12


    Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the new US Fed boss says price risks have come down in recent weeks, and repeated his determination to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Interestingly, US benchmark interest rates rose after these comments which tells you something about how they feel about the prospects for lower Fed Funds rates and inflation control. Meanwhile, US mortgage applications were little-changed last week and the 30 year benchmark mortgage rate changed little too. Refi activity was softer. The June job cut data for the US came in at about half the level of May and much less than expected, although layoffs due top AI remained the top reason. Meanwhile, the ADP monthly jobs report came in softer than expected, even if it is still expanding. A rise of +113,000 was expected after the prior month's +124,000. But this marker came in at +98,000. We will get the US non-farm payrolls change data tomorrow and markets expect it to rise +110,000, and down from May's +172,000. Meanwhile the widely-watched ISM factory PMI came in little-changed and moderately positive for June. New orders grew but slower; new export orders fell. Input prices rose again but at a slower pace. Most of this report was quite similar to yesterday's S&P Global US factory PMI. There was another fall last week in US crude inventories although the least in six week, even as the reduction has now cumulated to ten consecutive seeks. US strategic crude reserves are now as low as they had in 1983. Petrol inventories fell as well last week. American petrol prices remain a+28 higher than before the start of the Gulf War. In its aggressive trade relations, the US has told Canada and Mexico it will not renew the existing USMCA trade pact, one Trump himself negotiated and claimed was one of the 'best deals ever'. In fact the US ended up a net loser. Last year, the US had a -US$46 bln trade deficit ⁠in goods with Canada and a -US$197 bln deficit with Mexico. Of course the US has trade surpluses in services with both which they ignore. The existing USMCA will run another six years if it isn't eventually renewed, Factories the world over are expanding, although more than others in some places. The global factory PMI is a positive 53. In Australia it is lagging at 51.5. In New Zealand our last BNZ-BusinessNZ factory PMI came in at 49.9. Locally we are not participating in this global expansion. In China, their manufacturing conditions as measured by the S&P Global/RatingDog factory PMI improved further in June, completing their strongest quarter since 2020. This result was better than the official version but not quite as good as many analysts had expected. Input price inflation slowed to a five-month low while employment rose at its quickest rate since August 2023. Japan's Tankan industrial sentiment indexes have reached their highest level since 2018 in June. They came in at a level that was better than expected for large manufacturers, but a bit more modestly improved for service sector companies. South Korea is becoming Taiwanese, at least as regards its export prowess. Korean exports were up +71% in May from a year ago, to a record US$102 bln for the month. (For reference Taiwan exported US$78.5 bln in May, up +52% from a year ago.) However, their June factory PMI shows their softest rise in new orders in 2026 so far which limited production growth. And price and supply pressures remained pronounced. In Australia, their May building consent data shows that the number of dwelling approved were +5.3% higher than year-ago levels. But they fell -1.1% from April. Private sector house consents rose +2.8%, to the highest level since September 2021. This is the fourth consecutive month with over 10,000 private sector houses approved. This are quite soft for multi-unit dwellings however. And their June real estate market shows more signs of topping out. The Cotality home value index – covering all of Australia – fell -0.4% in June, following a -0.3% decline in May and a -0.1% dip in April. Annual growth slowed to +7.3%. The quarterly decline is the most significant since the 2022-23 price correction. Corrections in Sydney and Melbourne are becoming more pronounced, led by material declines in 'top tier' segments with turnover also down sharply. Momentum is slowing elsewhere but price and turnover growth are still mostly positive. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.48%, up another +5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has risen to US$4070/oz, up a net +US$44/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$60/oz, up +50 USc from a day ago. Oil prices are down another -US$1.50 from yesterday at just over US$68/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is down to US$71.50/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed at their lower level after the recent volatility & uncertainties with just 16 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (3 dark with transponders off) and 26 entering for new loads (4 dark). Most exiting vessels are still headed to China. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time yesterday at just under 56.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.7 which is up another +10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$60,115 and up +3.1% from this time yesterday and recovering most of yesterday's fall. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    american canada ai donald trump australia china japan mexico new zealand track private melbourne silver taiwan momentum korean south korea markets outlook usc aussie oil input kiwi corrections locally kia volatility hormuz taiwanese adp gulf war pmi petrol factories ism usmca ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand warsh twi refi us fed auc sceptical fed funds
    Hormuz will never be the same

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 30, 2026 6:58


    Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the Persian Gulf situation is settling into a chronic stalemate after the acute hot conflict. US allies in the region are confused, Qatar's role in negotiations is questioned as to whether it can actually do anything, and Iran and Oman are moving forward with their plans for 'fees' and 'management' of the waterway. The US is getting sidelined. One outcome seems clear however; Chinese EV's are dominating world car sales so demand for crude oil is likely to be much less in the future, and that will limit oil price pressures. But first today, there was another dairy Pulse auction overnight, bringing lower prices again. AMF fell -2.5% from last week's event, butter was down -0.5%, SMP was down a chunky -6.2% and WMP slipped -0.6%. These build on trends we have seen since mid-May and given the rise in global milk production by the main exporters (New Zealand included), it is a trend likely to continue for a while yet. In the US, labour market data for May about job openings was little-changed from April even if it still is near a two year high, which was slightly better than was expected. But the June PMI report for the important Chicago manufacturing hub was quite a bit weaker than for May and what was expected. But it is only back to February levels which isn't bad at all. It was a fall away in new orders that drove the easing. Meanwhile the Dallas Fed's regional services survey became positive - just - for the first time in five months. They reported that selling price pressures increased slightly, while input price and wage pressures grew at a faster pace. The Conference Board sentiment survey barely moved in June from May, which actually was a result that disappointed analysts because a more marked improvement was anticipated. And that was because respondents turned negative about job prospects, with almost a quarter of them unexpectedly saying jobs are 'hard to get', the highest level sine early 2021. And we should perhaps note that the deadly screwworm cattle disease is still spreading in Texas and New Mexico, spreading to other animals too. Even though the number of animals reported as having contracted the disease remains small, the risks to cattle herds in these states in very large. In Canada, the expectation that it was falling into recession has proven not to be the case. Canada's GDP rebounded from a first-quarter contraction to record a +0.5% monthly gain in April making this their largest economic expansion in nine months. Their May estimate points to a further if minor + 0.1% growth. Across the Pacific in Japan, the yen slipped into the 162-per-US dollar range yesterday for the first time in 39 years,and extending a slide that has accelerated in the past few months. A two month intervention effort isn't working, raising fresh questions about what is driving the yen's renewed weakness. China's official PMIs posted some marginal improvements in June, actually very marginal but at least they are not contracting. Their factory PMI is expanding, just. New orders picked up slightly. And their services PMI is now not contracting. But it isn't expanding either. New orders in this version are still negative, but the overall index was bolstered by expectations for improvement and lower lead times. All other more direct elements are negative to some degree. We should note that the unofficial PMIs by S&P Global/RatingDog have tended to be more expansionary in 2026. These unofficial results will come later today (Wednesday) and Friday. German inflation came in at 2.3% in June, down from 2.6% in May, 2.9% in April, and softer than anticipated, mainly because energy prices retreated there. Back in the US, Rocket Lab has agreed to buy Iridium Communications, a pioneer in satellite telephones, in a broadening attempt to compete with Starlink. It combines their launch capabilities and satellite manufacturing with Iridium's network in low-Earth orbit and valuable radio frequencies for satellite communication. Yesterday we reported a +6% rise in May air cargo activity. But today the May air passenger travel data was released showing a declined -2.2% from a year ago, down -3.1% for international travel. The main diver of the pullback was international travel through the Middle East (-28.8%). But it is also worth noting that domestic air travel in China fell (-6.2%) as well as in the US (-1.9%). The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.43%, up +6 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has risen to US$4026/oz, up a net +US$4/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$59.50/oz, up +US$1.50 from a day ago. Oil prices are down -US$1.50 from yesterday at just on US$69.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is unchanged at just on US$73/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed at their lower level after the recent volatility & uncertainties with just 19 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (5 dark with transponders off) and 23 entering for new loads (5 dark). Over the past two days, almost 70% of the exiting vessels have been headed to China. The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from this time yesterday at just under 56.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.6 which is up another +20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$58.325 and down -3.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    texas canada chicago earth china japan gold german new zealand iran middle east track bitcoin new mexico silver pacific qatar usc aussie oil gdp pulse kiwi starlink oman kia volatility hormuz pmi oil prices persian gulf never be the same ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand smp conference board rocket lab twi chinese ev iridium auc amf pmis dallas fed wmp
    Despite the US-Iran clash, the global economy is resilient

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 29, 2026 5:41


    Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of new truce agreements in the Middle East, at least as claimed by the US. Iran is conspicuously quiet that there is any agreement however. But at the year's half-way point, economic prospects are generally far from dire. In the US, the next regional Fed factory survey for June is out from the Dallas Fed. That shows little-change. Price pressures were mixed, as selling prices and wages rose faster while input cost pressures held steady. Looking ahead, manufacturers remained optimistic, especially as they are able to recover their cost increases. It is a sign inflation is being tolerated and embedding. Despite that, company bosses say inflation is their top concern. Across the Pacific retail sales in Japan rose +5.3% in May from a year ago, rising from an upwardly revised +2.8% rise in April and higher than the expected +3.2% gain. It was also their strongest growth since November 2023. The strength was broad-based and especially in new car sales. Not driving this increase was fuel costs because they actually fell in the month. In South Korea, a monumental public-private investment announcement. They have announced an "unprecedented" US$520 bln (NZ$920 bln) plan with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to expand chipmaking capacity in the country to stay competitive in the global artificial intelligence race. It will feature the construction of new four production facilities, or "fabs" - two by each of the chipmakers. The surge that started in March for Singapore's producer prices has only risen from there, coming in +26.8% higher than year-ago levels. This doesn't include fuel, but it does include chemicals (+29%) and machinery (+31%). Malaysia's producer prices rose +7.8% in May from a year ago, accelerating from a 5.4% growth in the prior month and marking the third straight month of gain. It was also the fastest increase since June 2022, with producer-level cost pressures mounting amid persistent disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. India's industrial production stayed at an expansion rate of +5.1% in May from a year ago, held back by their mining industry, and no doubt by energy conservation issues. But it is still a fast expansion and higher than the 4.8% rate in May 2025. EU economic sentiment ticked up in June from a low level, mainly because of an improvement in consumer sentiment. But it was not matched by business a similar improvement in business sentiment. Globally, the FAO has been reviewing the outlook for the rural economy. Among many observations, they see China's demand for beef rising sharply so that beef and sheep meat prices will be underpinned. For dairy products, they note that most of the global growth will come from India, but for internal cosumption. Only 7% of global production is expected to be exported, and 70% of that will be by just three countries - the EU, the US and New Zealand. Prices are expected to stay high for exported product. Overall, they see rising rural productivity, especially in advanced countries. And staying global, the latest data for air cargo demand has been released, for May, and that shows a +6% expansion, driven by an +8.0% rise in Asia Pacific international trade, and a +12.9% recovery in trade with North America The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.37%, unchanged from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has retreated to US$4022/oz, down a net -US$66/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$58/oz, down -US$1 from a day ago. Oil prices are up +US$2 from yesterday at just on US$71/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$73/bbl. (Interestingly, while these prices rose, Russian oil prices fell, now down to US$57/bbl ).Hormuz transits have stayed at their lower level after the recent flare up in fighting with just 14 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (2 dark with transponders off) but 28 entering for new loads (3 dark). Over the past two days, almost 70% of the exiting vessels were headed to China. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 821 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.4 which is up +20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$60,319 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    china japan gold russian european union price new zealand iran middle east track bitcoin singapore silver south korea pacific clash usc aussie prices resilient fed oil malaysia nz globally kiwi asia pacific kia volatility hormuz global economy ppi us iran fao retail sales shutterstock aotearoa new zealand twi samsung electronics auc sk hynix dallas fed air cargo
    Oil prices hold despite rising Gulf tensions

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 28, 2026 7:48


    Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news clashes in the Strait of Hormuz are unstitching the uneasy ceasefire and giving credence to sceptics who saw the 'truce deal' between the US and Iran as superficial and flawed. The US believes its own propaganda, thinking it is negotiating from strength, but no-one else does, least of all Iran. US allies in the region are starting to realise the US will throw them under the bus for its own ends. Tankers (6), bulk cargo vessels (6) and other ships (4) are exiting the region, but most tankers are are heading to China, or in the Russian shadow fleet. Those who need insurance are holding back. But first, this week will feature the usual monthly real estate update releases later in the week, including for building consents. Plus the big end-of-month data dump from the RBNZ. In Australia, the focus will be similar where we will be looking for early signs of housing market reactions from their new Budget settings. Elsewhere there will be important PMI updates from everywhere to give us indicators. In the US, their July 4 public holiday will happen on July 3 this year, so it will be a compressed week of labour market data there culminating in an early release of their June non-farm payrolls report when a +114,000 change is expected. In China, they say artificial intelligence is reshaping the global labour market not by triggering mass layoffs of existing workers but by causing employers to pull back on hirings for new, entry-level positions. China also reported industrial profits are recovering, up +21% in May from a year ago to ¥3.1 tln, and faster than the +18.8% rise for the first five months. The latest result reflects the ongoing AI investment boom and continued policy support for advanced industries despite lingering weakness in parts of the property-related sector. In the EU, an ECB survey revealed that median year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 3.5% in May, the lowest level in three months, down from 4.0% in each of the previous two months which were the highest readings since 2023. Longer-term inflation expectations were steady, at 2.9% for three years ahead. Consumers also expect house prices to rise by 3.6% over the next year, slightly below 3.7% in April. Expectations for mortgage interest rates were unchanged at 4.9%. According to the World Meteorological Organization they are saying the severe heat dome over Europe is expected to continue affecting much of Western, Central, and Southern Europe over the next two weeks. There are likely to be economic impacts soon, and as the summer progresses these impacts may well affect economic activity in a material way. And the Bank of International Settlements said over the weekend global pressures from rising public debt to financial fragilities, and questions about the sustainability of ​the AI boom, are increasing systemic financial risks which they suspect could end in a bust. They warned of a complex mix of vulnerabilities, including strained fiscal positions, lingering supply shocks and the risk of a renewed bout of high and sticky inflation. In the US their merchandise trade balance worsened in May. Imports rose +3.6% while exports fell -5.4%. These were much larger shifts than were anticipated. Clearly tariffs aren't working other than making imports more expensive and hurting exports. The net result was a -US$103.5 bln deficit for May, the largest in a year. And their largest May deficit ever. And we should also note that US inventories are rising and quite quickly. In May, wholesale inventories were up +4.4% from a year ago, retail inventories up +3.1%. The stockpiling we noted in their PMI activity is adding deadweight to their logistics systems The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was revised up to 49.5 in June, although that was less of a revision higher than expected. Still, sentiment improved from May which was the lowest level on record, supported in part by a moderation in petrol prices. And that is despite the fact they remain +31% higher than at the start of Trump's failed Iran adventure. But this didn't stop shoppers at Amazon's 'Prime Day' four-day shopping event. Prime Day 2026 was exclusively for Prime members and ran June 23-26. The wrap-up shows more than US$26 bln was spent in the period, up +9.3% from last year, and expected to be half related to inflation, half a volume gain. And in Australia, it seems that last week's auction results will show that they had their softest sales period in more than five years with many properties failing to sell. Also unfolding is the scale of mortgage fraud against banks by a surprisingly wide section of their mortgage broker community. To defend themselves, the banks are drawing up a black-list register so that brokers just don't go shopping around for vulnerabilities. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.37%, unchanged from this time Saturday, down -12 bps for the week.  The price of gold has risen to US$4089/oz, up a net +US$15/oz from Saturday. That is down -US$66/oz from a week ago. Silver is now under US$59/oz, down -US$5.50 for the week. Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday at just on US$69/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$72/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$77.50 and US$80.50 respectively. Hormuz transits have eased off noticeably after the recent flare up in fighting with just 16 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) but 24 entering for new loads (3 dark). Over the past two days, more than two thirds of the exiting vessels were headed to China, 9% were Russian-linked, 5% headed for Singapore 4% to South Korea. There are still hundreds (459) yet to try their luck, no doubt inhibited by insurance issues. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time Saturday at just on 56.4 USc, down -100 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are holding at 81.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just on 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.3 which is down -110 bps for the week, and still its lowest since the GFC in 2009. The bitcoin price starts today at US$59,497 and down -0.5% from this time Saturday, and down -5.1% from this time last week Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/- 0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    amazon ai donald trump europe australia china gold russian european union western expectations new zealand bank iran budget rising track bitcoin singapore longer silver prime south korea usc aussie oil consumers tensions gulf kiwi strait kia volatility hormuz pmi tankers prime day oil prices imports ecb gfc ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand southern europe twi consumer sentiment auc international settlements world meteorological organization inflation expectations rbnz
    Hormuz still fragile, but inflation returns as the next big issue

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 25, 2026 4:12


    Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news more vessels are moving out of the Strait of Hormuz, but 'incidents' are generating nervousness in a fragile situation. First, US PCE inflation rose to 4.1% in May and as expected, a rise from 3.8% in April. Core PCE inflation rose too, also as expected and is now at 3.4%. Meanwhile both personal income and personal spending rose at essentially the same pace. More generally, it is not only the Gulf war impacts driving inflation. AI is pushing companies to raise prices to cover its 'investment'. For example, Macbooks and iPads are up +20% on this 'recovery' push. May durable goods orders in the US fell sharply from April, but recall that April was relatively strong. But from a year ago they are also lower, down -4.4%. Capital goods orders dived -21.5% in May from a year ago largely on very weak aircraft orders. US initial jobless claims fell slightly more than expected last week and more than seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.73 mln people on these benefits, lower than year-ago levels. But much tighter requirements are preventing many from claiming this or other social safety net options. The Chicago Fed's national activity index slipped lower in May after the somewhat unusual improvement in April. That means it has decreased in eight of the past twelve months, and was flat in another one. However the Kansas City Fed factory survey was much more positive in that region in its June edition, delivering one of its most upbeat results since the post-pandemic recovery. Global container freight rates rose another +5% last week to extend its rising trend that started in early May by adding +82% in that period. From a year ago it is up only +40%. Driving this latest rise are outbound rate from China to the US West Coast. Bulk cargo freight rates were little-changed this week however, remaining +60% higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.39%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has risen back to US$4032/oz, up a net +US$54/oz from yesterday. Silver is just on US$58/oz, up +US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +US$1 from yesterday at just on US$71.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$75/bbl. Hormuz transits have picked up with 41 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (3 dark with transponders off) and 21 entering for new loads (3 dark). There are still hundreds yet to try their luck, no doubt inhibited by insurance issues. And overnight one ship was hit by live-fire after an Iran warning and this incident saw the oil price rise. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 81.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.4 which is unchanged from yesterday, and still near its lowest since the GFC in 2009. The bitcoin price starts today at US$59,377 and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been high at just over +/- 3.1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    ai china gold global new zealand iran track driving bitcoin capital inflation silver ipads usc aussie oil gulf kiwi fragile strait macbook kia volatility hormuz bulk oil prices big issues gfc strait of hormuz ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand twi auc jobless claims us west coast core pce freight rates kansas city fed
    Hormuz reopening to flood world with crude oil

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 24, 2026 5:40


    Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of falls in many metrics across the board today, highlighted by commodity prices, crypto and interest rates. Equities are lower too. But the USD is rising on risk-aversion. There is now international agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz ("without tolls") and that is expected to see a rush of hundreds of ships and cargoes on the move, flooding refiners with product just as indications are that demand is weakening. Urea prices are now back below pre-war levels although sulphur prices are remaining unusually high. (Key Chinese sulphur inventories are currently at a decade low.) But first in the US, mortgage applications were little-changed last week as were mortgage interest rates, when refi activity firmed but new purchase activity eased. And that is consistent with new home sales in the US that fell away in May to levels they had in the late stages of the pandemic in 2022. This was surprise because they were expected to rise from April's level. There was also a surprise bigger-than-expected fall in US crude oil stocks last week, extending the outsized trend to nine straight weeks. Again, this is the longest streak of weakness since the post-pandemic 2021-2022 period. Petrol stocks rose however, suggesting much lower demand is the new trend. There was a well-supported US Treasury 5yr bond auction earlier today and the median yield came in at 4.14% (4.20% high), little changed from the 4.12% median at the prior equivalent event a month ago. Across the Pacific, Taiwanese industrial production was up +11.8% in May from a year ago, easing from an upwardly revised 14.9% rise in April. But this was their slowest expansion since January 2025 even if it was a new all-time record high in value terms. Going the other way, Taiwanese retail sales are still rising fast, up +4.9% in May to extend their about +5% growth rate to four consecutive months. Clearly their stellar economic expansion is spilling into the wider consumer community. In Japan, the minutes of the last central bank meeting show its decisionmakers view it appropriate to continue raising its policy interest rate, as underlying inflation has been moving toward the 2% target while financial conditions have remained accommodative. They say that if the economy and prices evolve in line with the Bank's outlook, further rate hikes would become warranted. Some argued Japan's policy rate remains below the estimated neutral interest rate, seen at around 2%, and should be brought closer to that level. It is currently at 1%. In China, their important grain harvest season is well underway with record output and high yields. This is expected to keep Chinese import demand on the lowish side. In Australia, a +6.5% rise in housing costs (mainly from a +21% jump in electricity costs) drove their May CPI 4.0% inflation rate, not fuel or food. But that was lower than the expected 4.4% rate and in fact a four month low. The overall trimmed mean was up 3.6% however, a rise from April. So their underlying inflation trend is still firming. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.40%, down another -6 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has fallen to US$3978/oz, down a net -US$152/oz from yesterday. Silver is just under US$56.50/oz, down a huge -US$5.50 from yesterday (-9%). Oil prices are down -US$2.50 from yesterday at just on US$70.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is -US$3 lower and now just on US$74/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed modest with 13 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and 12 entering for new loads (2 dark). This is expected to change soon. The Kiwi dollar is down another -30 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.4 USc and a seven month low. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at just on 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 60.4 which is down another -20 bps from yesterday, and still near its lowest since the GFC in 2009. The bitcoin price starts today at US$59,403 and down a sharp -4.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just over +/- 3.1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    australia china japan gold chinese new zealand bank track bitcoin inflation silver taiwan pacific flood usc aussie oil usd reopening kiwi strait kia volatility hormuz taiwanese petrol equities us treasury gfc ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand sulfur crude oil twi urea auc new home sales may cpi
    Commodity currencies take it on the chin

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 23, 2026 5:31


    Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news markets are betting that the next rate move by the US Fed will be a hike. And that has juiced up the USD today. But first, the overnight dairy Pulse auction brought sharply lower prices for the three lines offered. AMF took a -7.5% tumble from last week's full auction event. They didn't release the butter price this time. SMP fell -4.5% from last week and WMP fell -1.9%. But given the retreat of the NZD at the same time (-2.8%) the impact in local currency will be much less. In the US, there was another good weekly jobs indicator from ADP for private payrolls, rising about what was expected. And the flash US factory PMI for June shows solid growth, in fact its best in 4 years, but it also signals lower employment and elevated price inflation, so a mixed bag. The fall in factory jobs was the fastest since the pandemic. New order growth was good but the hikes in input prices are still next-level. Their service sector rose too but much more modestly and new order growth was tame, But none of this showed up in the Richmond Fed's factory survey. While it did expand it was very modest and well below its May level and what was expected. They had the same lack-luster result in their service sector. There was a well-supported US Treasury 2 year bond auction overnight, delivering a median yield of 4.14% (high 4.19%) which was well above the 4.02% median at the same event a month ago. The Chicago Fed boss said yesterday the US inflation is too high and "going the wrong way". (He is presently an alternate FOMC member, but he will be a full member in 2027.) Across the Pacific, Japan's factories are expanding solidly and faster. They recorded a stronger rise in business activity in June, but rate of cost inflation has hit a four-year high. New orders rose their fastest since 2022. Singapore is managing to navigate the current global inflation pressures well. They recorded an inflation rate that held steady at 1.8% in May, unchanged for a third consecutive month and below market expectations of 2%. In India, their flash June PMI's remained elevated and very expansionary, in both their factory and services sectors. New orders rose at a good pace, but input cost pressures eased, rising at a five month low. In Taiwan, we are so used to reporting spectacular results but they no longer seem out of the ordinary. But in fact they remain extraordinary. Their May export orders were up +47% from a year ago to almost a new record high. In Europe, their factory PMI is still expanding in June, but less so. Inflationary pressures show signs of softening there. Holding them back is their services sector. The latest flash PMI for Australia shows that business activity nears stabilisation in June as the service sector improved in Australia, but new orders continue to fall, including for new export orders. And staying in Australia, their latest quarterly update for rural commodities notes that the gross value of agricultural production is forecast to fall by -5% to AU $98.3 bln in the 2026–27 upcoming year. They expect "average broadacre farm business profit" to fall by -70%, driven by lower revenue and higher input prices. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.46%, down -5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has fallen to US$4130/oz, down a net -US$50/oz from yesterday. Silver is just under US$62/oz, down -US$3.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are down -50 USc from yesterday at just on US$73/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$77/bbl. Hormuz transits are staying modest up with 16 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (7 dark with transponders off) and 20 entering for new loads (2 dark). The Kiwi dollar is down another -40 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.7 USc and a seven month low. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps and back at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.6 which is down another -30 bps from yesterday, and near its lowest since the GFC in 2009. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,388 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.8%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    europe australia japan new zealand track holding singapore silver taiwan pacific usc aussie oil pulse usd kiwi chin commodities kia volatility hormuz adp pmi currencies us treasury in india fomc gfc ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand smp inflationary twi us fed auc amf nzd wmp
    Lake Lucerne talks make edgy progress

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 22, 2026 5:31


    Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the Swiss talks between the US and Iran seem to have made progress overnight, from Iran's point of view at least. The fighting in Lebanon has abated. Oil prices have fallen following the 60 days peace deal roadmap is still in place. To keep the momentum, the US Treasury Department has agreed it will not enforce their sanctions on the production, delivery and the sale of Iranian oil - for at least these 60 days. But of course, Iran has been selling oil before and after these sanctions, although it just got easier for them. Having noted that news, ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has in fact changed little so far. Over 400 ships are waiting for confirmed safety before their owners will move them. And in turn, they are waiting for insurers to price their cover at more normal terms. In the US, the Fed is actively assessing how its global dominance in financial markets can be enhanced by linking US Treasuries to USD stablecoins. And staying in the US, we should probably note that Alan Greenspan, who led the US Fed from 1987 to 2006, has died, aged 100. His legacy is controversial, being the originator of "whatever it takes" (The Greenspan put), and which many say led to the ensuing real estate bubbles worldwide. Canada's May CPIcame in at 3.2%, higher than expected and the most since December 2023. Driving the rise was fuel costs of course. On a core basis this inflation is running at 2.2%, about what was expected and only marginally different o April's level. The Chinese central bank has kept its key lending rates (Loan Prime Rates) at record lows for a 13th straight month in its June review. Chinese economic momentum has recently sputtered, delivering mixed economic data, so this cautious no-change was widely expected. Meanwhile China's foreign direct investment indicates significant struggles in attracting and keeping investors from outside the country. On a year-to-date basis, FDI fell -8.3% in yuan terms, down -3.1% in USD terms. But the May activity is much weaker coming it at just a third of year-ago levels and the net was a very minor +US$6.3 bln this year. So far in 2026, these levels are the weakest in at least ten years, probably longer, continuing a trend that is off its 2022 peak. They often talk about 'opening up' but for the past three years they have been shunned and those initiatives are failing. In Europe, consumer sentiment has recovered some in June after their deeply negative fall in May. But it is only a minor recovery and remains deeply negative. In Australia, their housing market is slowing noticeability. This past week and weekend their auction clearance rate fell below 50% and to its lowest in six years. In Brisbane it got as low as 33%. In Sydney it was 47.4%. In Melbourne it was 50.6%. Prices are in a falling trend too. And in spite from the full-court press vested business interests have made against recent Canberra budget moves that affect housing, it looks like voters approve. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.51%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has held at US$4180/oz, up a net +US$25/oz from yesterday. Silver is at US$65.50/oz, up +50 USc from yesterday. Oil prices are down -US$4 from yesterday at just under US$73.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$77.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are staying modest up with 10 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (3 dark with transponders off) and 10 entering for new loads (2 dark). Most are ships heading for China and India. (Normal is 60 in each direction.) The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from this time yesterday at just on 57.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -30 bps at 81.6 AUc. Against the euro we are staying lower at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.9 which is down -30 bps from yesterday, and the lowest since November 2025 The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,388 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 1.8%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    canada europe australia china gold chinese new zealand progress iran track normal driving bitcoin melbourne silver housing usc aussie prices swiss lebanon iranians fed oil brisbane usd kiwi canberra strait kia volatility hormuz stablecoins oil prices edgy strait of hormuz ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand fdi greenspan alan greenspan twi us treasuries us fed auc us treasury department in sydney meanwhile china lake lucerne
    Trump 'schooled' by Iran in diplomatic negotiation

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 21, 2026 5:12


    Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the coming week will be largely about the Strait of Hormuz and whether the US-Iran agreements will hold and traffic resumes at scale. But we start the week with a pessimistic outlook. Iran says it has closed the Strait (again) and it will remain closed until the US honours its commitment to get Israel to stop invading Lebanon. The US seems unable to do that and responded with threats. Talks in Geneva sputter along and it is hard to know if they are meaningful. And that likely means ship traffic in the Strait will be tolled by Iran when things settle, as they eventually will. Away from all that, the local data will focus on May's mortgage and credit card lending. In Australia we will get important updates for CPI inflation (4.3%), jobs growth (+30,000), and household spending (+4.1%). In China, their central bank is widely expected to keep its one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged in its June review. They will also release FDI data (likely at least -10% lower from a year ago). Taiwan will update its eye-catching export order data, expected to rise to +50% in May from a year ago. There will be many early June PMI indicators coming out this week including from the US (expect stable or easing). But the big US data will be their PCE inflation report where analysts expect them to report a May level close to 4%. Canada will report its CPI and that is expected to come in at 2.9% but with core readings a bit lower. Over the weekend they reported retail sales rose in April to be +3.7% higher than year-ago levels but unchanged in volume terms. Their May retail sales indicator rose a bit more, but this too may be all about fuel prices more than volume gains. Staying in Canada, their banking prudential regulator lowered its capital buffers over the weekend with the express intent of allowing their banks to lend more to businesses "in support of Canada's economic adaptation to new opportunities": Across the Pacific, Malaysia said it's exports rose a startling +45% in May and far better than the outsized +35% expected - and easily an all-time record high. This is all driven by electronic goods (+71%) although LNG exports were very strong too (+112%). Their traditional rural exports (palm oil, natural rubber) took a hammering however. Meanwhile Malaysia reported May CPI as up just +2.0% in May from a year ago with food prices up just +1.2%. Germany said its May producer prices rose +2.2% from a year ago, the most since June 2023 when most of that intervening prior saw declines. And in Europe generally, they are suffering extreme heat, early in their summer, with temperatures 40o plus in many places. It will be a long summer for them. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.49%, unchanged from this time Saturday, up a net +1 bps for the week.  The price of gold has held at US$4152/oz, down a net -US$66/oz for the week. Silver is at US$65/oz, down -US$3 for the week. Oil prices are holding from Saturday at just under US$77.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$80.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$84.50 and US$87/bbl respectively. Hormuz transits are picking up with 15 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (3 dark with transponders off) and 17 entering for new loads (8 dark). (Normal is 60 in each direction.) Australia said it has extended their fuel excise tax relief until the end of July. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time Saturday at just on 57.4 USc to make it a full -100 bps lower than a week ago. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are staying lower at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.2 which is unchanged from Saturday, down -80 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,124 and up +1.8% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/- 0.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    canada donald trump europe australia israel china germany gold staying new zealand iran track normal bitcoin silver taiwan pacific usc aussie negotiation lebanon oil malaysia talks kiwi cpi strait kia volatility hormuz lng diplomatic us iran schooled strait of hormuz ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand pce fdi twi auc may cpi
    Oil prices settle to be +12% above conflict-start levels, +25% above early 2026 levels

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 18, 2026 4:10


    Audio is licensed by Shutterstock. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI ---- Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news financial markets may be moving on from the US-Iran deal, but commodity markets are noting that Iran will now have the opportunity to charge for transit ('fees' but no 'tolls') after a key US concession. The MOUis signed. In the US, jobless claims dipped slightly last week to 219,500 but at about the rate expected as what seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now just under 1.7 people on these benefits, marginally less than a year ago. The Philly Fed factory survey recovered in June after the poor report for May, but only to a level below its 2026 average. These firms said prices paid moved up while the prices they got for their goods dipped. Meanwhile the US Conference Board's leading index rose marginally in May, and this metric suggests its may be coming to the end of its long term down trend that started in 2022. In Canada, producer prices were up +13.6% in May from a year earlier with +1.2% of that coming in the latest month. Of course, most of this was energy related. In fact raw materials costs were up +33% from a year ago within the overall result. There was a lot of central bank action overnight, all timed to follow the US Fed. Taiwan held its policy rate unchanged at 2.0% as expected. Indonesia hike again, up +25 bps to 5.75% quickly following last week's out-of-cycle emergency hike to support their currency. The central Bank of England held unchanged at 2.75% (with two of their nine members wanting a hike). The Swiss central bank held at 0%. The Norwegian central bank held at 4.25%. And the Swedish central bank held at 1.75% a day ago. All these came after last week's +25 bps rise by the ECB. Global container freight rates surged another +12% last week to be +21% higher than this time last year. There were increases in all major trades but the China-EU trade got the biggest hit. Meanwhile, bulk cargo rates fell -8% over the past week to be +36% higher than year ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.44%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has retreated another -US$44 from yesterday to US$4229/oz. Silver is down another -US$2 at US$66/oz. Oil prices are down -US$1 from yesterday at just under US$75.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$78.50/bbl and down -50 USc. Hormuz transits are picking up with 13 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours and 13 entering for new loads. (Normal is 60 in each direction.) The Kiwi dollar is down -60 bps from this time yesterday at just on 57.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.0 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.3 which is down -50 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$62,623 and down -5.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.   Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    canada england global new zealand bank iran track normal indonesia silver taiwan swedish levels usc aussie swiss settle oil norwegian kiwi kia volatility hormuz oil prices ecb us iran ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand twi us fed auc china eu
    US Fed eyes rate hikes

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 17, 2026 5:23


    Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US-Iran deal temporarily reopens Strait of Hormuz, and offers major concessions to Tehran. Tehran probably can't quite believe its luck here. Trump is battling widespread claims his Iran deal is worse (much worse) than the Obama deal he tore up. In economic matters in the US, their central ban kept it policy rate range unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting, in a unanimous decision and as expected. But updated dot plot projections show that 9 officials foresee at least one quarter-point hike this year, with 6 anticipating at least two. Another 9 expected no move or a cut. They see core inflation rising from 2.7% at their prior forecast to 3.3% by the end of the year. and removed their easing bias. And the next move will be up. This uncertainty got the market's attention. Wall Street retreated, bond yields rose, and the USD rose. Gold fell. But Kevin Warsh's influence can be seen in the fact that the decision announcement had very little detail or context. He is not a fan of central bank transparency. Separately, US mortgage applications fell last week and across the board even though the benchmark interest rate was unchanged (at 6.60%). However American retail sales rose in May from April and by more than expected to be +5.2% higher than year-ago levels. But most of this was due to higher fuel prices. Without fuel, these sales were up +3.6% when inflation was up +4.2%. US pending home sales rose more than expected too, with sales volumes yp +4.8% from May a year ago. That is two months in a row of good gains although on the back of quite weak results a year ago. US crude oil stocks fell an outsized -8.3 mln barrels last week, the largest weekly fall in eight weeks and the most concentrated drawdown of the strategic reserve levels since the pandemic. In fact, their strategic reserves are at their lowest level now since March 1985. a 40 year low. Japan said its exports were up +17.0% in May from a year ago to US$59 bln and its imports were up +12.5% over the same period. Export customers were dominated by China (+17.9% growth ), the US (+12.5%), ASEAN (+20.0%), and the EU (+14.5%). Meanwhile Japan reported its machinery orders were strong too, up +15.6% in April from a year ago, up +8.7% from March. Japan really has its mojo back. In Singapore, they said their exports rose a whopping +38% in May from a year ago to a record high S$87 bln (US$51 bln) in the month, a far larger increase than anyone saw coming. It is clear that despite the US shenanigans on tariffing trade, global trade is in fine shape without them. In China, they are tightening their grip on the rare earth minerals sector with new regulations that cover everything from mining rights and production, to stockpiling and environmental restoration. Everything in the sector is now a national security priority. It might also be worth noting that Russia said its economy shrank in Q1-2026, its first admission of a retreat outside the pandemic period. And the downturn occurred despite sharp rises in the prices of key Russian exports, including oil, natural gas, coal, industrial metals, and grain. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.46%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday immediately after the Fed decision announcement. The price of gold has has retreated -US$68 from yesterday to US$4273/oz after the Fed decision. Silver is down -US$2 at US$68/oz. Oil prices are up +US$1 from yesterday at just under US$76.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$79/bbl and up +50 USc. Hormuz transits are picking up with eight crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours and 16 entering for new loads. (Normal is 60 in each direction.) The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday at just on 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.8 which is down -20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,016 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.3%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Audio license: Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    donald trump china japan russia gold russian european union new zealand barack obama iran track normal bitcoin wall street singapore silver usc aussie fed oil usd hike kiwi tehran strait export kia volatility hormuz exports asean us iran ust shutterstock aotearoa new zealand critical minerals twi us fed auc
    Will money solve the US-Iran conflict?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 16, 2026 6:47


    Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news it seems Iran is going to come out of the current 'peace deal' with a very large reconstruction commitment. To end the standoff, the US is offering Iran substantial funding even if via convoluted means so that Trump can claim the US isn't involved. The overnight dairy auction brought lower prices that at the prior full event, but not as low as at the the prior Pulse event, nor what the derivatives market was expecting. Still, it was a -2.8% retreat in USD terms, down -1.4% in NZD terms and to the lowest overall level since early February. Generally the powders were softer than expected, the milk fats note as soft as expected. In the US, their weekly ADP employment update signaled a slightly slower pace of hiring, the softest since early March. But this signal is still expanding, just slower. The New York Fed's regional services sector survey found softer conditions in June than at the prior survey with declining activity and firms not very optimistic. Meanwhile the US national housing start data for May revealed sharply lower activity, down -8.7% from the same month a year ago. In fact, apart from the pandemic period, this is the lowest level in 17 years and the GFC.. All eves now turn to the US Fed and their meeting tomorrow. Many economists are betting on higher rates as Kevin Warsh takes the reins at the Fed. But it is no certainty as financial markets see no-change in their rates tomorrow, despite the high US inflation measures. In Canada, their real estate market seems to be recovering led by Toronto and Ontario markets, with national sales rising at a rate in May not seen since 2024. In China, new home prices were -3.5% lower in May from a year ago, matching April's pace and that extends their consecutive decline to almost 3 years. Second hand home prices fell at a faster rate in the 70 major cities that their official data tracks. But there are new pockets where increases are starting to show up, even for pre-owned homes. China said its industrial production expanded +4.5% in May from a year ago, better than the +4.1% in April and better than the expected +4.3%. And their electricity production rose +4.2% in the same period, giving some cred to the industrial production claims (which has been occasionally absent in previous months). But China's retail sales actually fell -0.6% in May from the same month in 2026, following an easing pattern that started in March, and the first decline in retail sales there since December 2022. But much of this weakness is due to lower car buying which was down -16%. Sales of home appliances and audiovisual equipment was also down -16%, home improvement down -11%, gold and silver jewelry down -9%, and furniture down -8.7%. Turning up sharply were beverages and tobacco, clothing and cosmetics, comfort items popular when things are stressful. As expected, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 1.0% today in a 7-1 majority decision. This new rate is its highest in 31 years. In Australia, momentum in their manufacturing sector stalled heading into mid-year, with conditions slipping back neutral after a short-lived recovery. The Middle East conflict is reigniting cost pressures across the industry, according to the latest update of ACCI-Westpac Business Survey for the June quarter. And late yesterday, the RBA agreed unanimously to hold their cash rate target at 4.35% as was widely expected. On the commodities front we should note that while urea prices have fallen (with oil), that is not the case for sulphur, not bitumen. Many commodity prices may stay elevated for a long time yet. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.42%, down -4 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has recovered further, up +US$20 from yesterday to US$4341/oz. Silver is unchanged at US$70/oz. Oil prices are down another -US$5 from yesterday at just over US$75.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$78.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are still minimal with only six crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours. Oddly however its seems the US is using an Iranian ship-transfer tactic to get some cargoes through. And we should note that construction and other costs for electric battery storage stations have fallen below that of gas-fired power plants for the first time, as overproduction in China and a shift away from electric vehicles drove battery prices down -40% in 2025, while a turbine supply crunch is making new gas plants more costly. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62 which is up +10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$65,878 and down -1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.1%. And we should also note that reports suggest Binance is about to lose its licence to operate in the EU. Binance is controlled by Changpeng Zhao (CZ) who was convicted of money laundering in the US (and of course got pardoned there by Trump). You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    money canada donald trump australia china japan gold turning sales toronto european union new zealand bank iran middle east track bitcoin ontario silver housing solve usc aussie iranians fed oil pulse usd generally kiwi kia volatility hormuz adp binance oil prices us iran gfc ust rba kevin warsh shutterstock aotearoa new zealand twi us fed auc new york fed nzd
    Markets jump to conclusions

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 15, 2026 4:14


    Title: Markets jump to conclusions ------------------------ Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US-Iran deal is being viewed with relief by financial markets, but commodity markets are less enthusiastic. Commodity prices are expected to remain higher than they were in February, before the US and Israel attacked Iran, even after this latest deal to end the war, as it will take months for risk premiums to retreat and give breathing space to commodity-importing economies. However first today, American manufacturing output stalled in May from April to be +1.4% higher than year-ago levels and a lower improvement than expected. Also coming in weaker than expected was the June factory survey for the New York region although they did report a small rise in new orders. The pace of input cost increases remains very elevated however. Meanwhile NAHB survey of housebuilders was little-changed in June, remaining weak on affordability concerns In Canada, May housing starts dipped from the prior month but remain high on an historical basis. Canada also said its April industrial production was strong, with manufacturing sales up +4.2% following a +3.4% rise in March. Sales rose in 17 of the 21 subsectors, led by the fuel products and food subsectors. India said its exports rose to US$45.2 bln in May, a record high for them and +18% above the May 2025 level After three months of declines, industrial production rose in April in the EU in a better than expected result (even if the rise was quite minor). And France is facing US pressure for attempting to get the US tech giant to pay some tax on their French operations. Big Tech has weaponised its support of the US President to try and avoid France's 3% digital services tax. Even that is too much for them. Relying on US tech is risky, and those risks got larger with the US banning key new Anthropic products "from export". The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.46%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has recovered further, up +US$99 from yesterday to US$4321/oz. Silver is up +US$2.50 to US$70/oz. Oil prices are down -US$4.50 from yesterday at just under US$80.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$83/bbl. Hormuz transits are still minimal with no significant movements of crude or product tankers overnight. The US went to war with Iran because they would not "negotiate" their surrender. Now Trump claims peace based on a negotiation with a regime he cannot defeat nor control. Likely the "worst deal ever". What could possibly go wrong? The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time yesterday at just on 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 82.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.9 which is down -10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,868 and up +5.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

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    Israel strikes Beirut; Iran says no point in talks with the US

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 14, 2026 6:46


    Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the imminent deal Trump talked up on Saturday seems to have faded, mainly because Israeli attacks on Beirut have undermined the situation. But if there was to be a deal, it is sure to dominate financial markets. In the meantime, war is the standard situation. These same markets are also contending the implications of the wildly successful SpaceX float. It was full of animal spirits, FOMO, and gambling fever, and more than a few observers are seeing this as evidence of a gigantic bubble. After all it values SpaceX at 100 times its current revenues, and the business operates at a loss. At a US$2 tln 'value', to be sustainable it would need to generate after-tax profits of at least 10% or US$200 bln per year. And that is about double what Aramco-plus-Google do now, #1 and #2 combined. In the real world, Thursday will bring the next US Fed policy meeting result, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, Trump's replacement of Jerome Powell. Powell will still have a vote however. Most observers see them holding their key rate at 3.75%. The Fed has an inflation target of 2% for the PCE measure of inflation which is currently running at 3.8% with the CPI running at 4.2%, a three year high, with both rising sharply last time they were released. There will need to be some policy gymnastics to ignore those signals, but they may hope the fuel component reverses soon to save them. That is probably why markets think there will be no change on Thursday. The US Fed won't be the only central bank on action this week. We will get reviews from the Bank of Japan (+25 bps to 1.00% expected), Sweden's Riskbank, Norway's Norges Bank, the Swiss National Bank, the English central bank, even in Brazil. More importantly for us is that we will get the RBA's latest update on Tuesday, where no change from the current 4.35% is expected. And the New Zealand Q1-2026 GDP result will drop this week and it will be a surprise it it isn't a year-on-year growth rate of +1.1%. Of course, this will be very dated data. In fact the RBNZ's own Nowcast suggests GDP will drop -0.2% in Q2-2026 from the prior quarter after rising +0.6% in the March quarter. Markets see a March quarterly rise of +0.9%. In Japan, attention will focus on the Bank of Japan's policy meeting, where it is widely expected to raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1% amid persistent inflation and yen weakness. If delivered, it would mark the first rate increase since December last year and the highest policy rate since 1995. The country is also set to publish trade, inflation, and machinery orders data. In India, producer inflation is projected to rise to 9.1% in May from 8.3% in April, driven by rising energy costs. Other major releases include trade, unemployment, and passenger vehicle sales figures. In China, investors will monitor a series of key economic releases next week, including house prices, industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and their jobless data. After April's surprise decline, China's May new yuan loans resumed their growth in data out over the weekend, up +5.5% from a year ago with a modest +¥520 bln rise, about what was expected (+¥550 bln). Still, at that level it is the weakest May increase in eighteen years, as the usual suspect - the property market - continues to drag on bank lending. Across the Pacific, American consumers felt the cost of living pressure ease slightly in June as petrol prices came back off their recent war highs. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index rose in early June, up from May's all-time low and a better than expected recovery. It was a modest recovery all the same with improvements seen across all age, education, and political groups. Lower-income consumers, for whom fuel represents a larger share of budgets, showed a particularly strong rebound even if it is still deeply negative and its second lowest of all time. And in Europe, Switzerland had another set of national referendums. One proposal, to cap its population at 10 mln, has been voted down. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.49%, up +1 bps from Saturday, down -5 bps for the week. The price of gold has recovered a very minor +US$4 from Saturday to US$4222/oz but down -US$102 for the week. Silver is little-changed US$67.50/oz and the same as last week at this time. Oil prices are up +50 USc from Saturday at just under US$85/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$87.50/bbl. A week ago these two prices were US$90.50 and US$93/bbl respectively. Hormuz transits have dried up again. And global oil reserves are draining into uncharted territory. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time Saturday at just on 58.3 USc, up +30 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62 which is unchanged from Saturday, up +30 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,655 and down a minor -0.3% from this time Saturday. That is a +5.8% rise from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/- 0.8%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorriow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

    american university donald trump europe english google israel china japan gold michigan new zealand brazil bank iran track bitcoin sweden switzerland silver norway pacific israelis markets fomo lower spacex usc strikes aussie fed oil powell gdp population beirut kiwi cpi kia volatility hormuz jerome powell in india ust rba kevin warsh shutterstock aotearoa new zealand pce us federal reserve crude oil aramco twi consumer sentiment us fed auc swiss national bank norges bank rbnz
    David Mahon: China will watch Election 2026 closely

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 12, 2026 28:04


    Chinese officials are watching the 2026 election for a signal on whether New Zealand's more United States-aligned security posture will become a permanent fixture. If they assess that it is, the trade relationship might be at risk. That's the opinion of David Mahon, a Kiwi business consultant based in Beijing. “New Zealand–China relations are already at their worst stage since diplomatic recognition,” he told the Of Interest podcast. “At the moment, there's not some sword hanging over us, partly because China is so busy dealing with a massive geopolitical mess, as all great powers and smaller and medium sized powers are.” But Mahon sees two risks in the future: China could retaliate by blocking the import of some non-essential luxury goods, or it could simply become “indifferent” towards its relationship with New Zealand. “New Zealand sells a lot of things to China. None of them are irreplaceable. In the end, it's just milk. In the end, it's just fruit or honey. That's something that we need to acknowledge.” “If you look at our free trade agreement, the profit margin, the rationale for many of our companies trading with China is only based on the fact we pay no tax. If we lost that free trade agreement. We would lose much of our business with China”. Mahon doesn't think the Free Trade Agreement is currently at risk but there are signs Kiwi businesses in China are nervous about the deteriorating relationship. An article written by China trade consultant Anna-May Isbey in a report published by the NZ Business Roundtable in China warned there could be direct consequences for geopolitical policies. “The language used by governments when navigating geopolitical tensions can have real commercial consequences. Exporters consistently express the view that New Zealand's longstanding, pragmatic, and independent approach to international engagement should continue,” she wrote. This perspective contrasts against security analysts in Wellington and elsewhere who are increasingly concerned about China as a security risk, and want New Zealand to bolster its defence capabilities and diversify its export markets. Government agencies have linked China to both foreign interference and cyber espionage in New Zealand, such as hacking the Parliamentary Service network in 2021. But a political pivot towards the United States, which began while Jacinda Ardern was Prime Minister, has been complicated by the country's plunging popularity in New Zealand. The United States is now seen by Kiwis as more of a threat than China, according to an annual survey commissioned by the Asia NZ Foundation. Mahon believes New Zealand should “learn to do less” and avoid taking sides in geopolitical competition which doesn't directly affect it. “Stop seeking the approval of these big countries that impress you so much, including Beijing … If we do less, and our need for the approval of other nations is less, then I think the navigation is going to be a lot simpler,” he said. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

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    More 'peace' claims for Hormuz, but growth sags, El Niño arrives

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 11, 2026 5:30


    Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news Trump cancelled his latest planned military strikes claiming negotiating progress. That has been enough to settle financial markets today. But first in the US, producer prices jumped +1.1% in May from April to be +6.5% higher than a year ago and to their highest since November 2022. And before the pandemic, their highest since this series began in 2009. Core PPI was up +5.1% and a similar high. These rises were more than expected. US initial jobless claims also rose more than expected last week.to 228,400 and more than seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.69 mln people on these benefits, less than a year ago and marginally less than two years ago. In Canada, building consents were expected to fall back in April after the spurt in March, but they fell more than expected. Residential consents fell -5.5% and commercial consents fell an outsized -10.5%, both from the prior month. From a year ago, these consent levels were +2.5% high, but that is on a value basis and construction PPI rose +2.8% in that same time. In Europe, the ECB raised its policy interest rate by +25 bps to 2.4% as widely expected, it first increase since 2023. It also raised its inflation expectation to 3% in 2026 and cut its growth forecast slightly to +0.8% this year and to 1.2% in 2027. In Indonesia, their financial crisis is intensifying with their currency in freefall and their stock market too. The worry is it may drive a social crisis at our backdoor. In Australia, the Melbourne Institutes survey of inflation expectations dipped in June to 5.5% following a dip in May after they peaked at 5.9% in April. The June result was well below the 6.5% jump some expected. But remember, their fuel tax concession (50%) is expected to end at the end of this month. If it does, it could put upward pressure on consumer inflation. (April actual CPI came in at 4.2% and the May result will be released on June 24.) In contrast wage expectations have remained unchanged for the past seven months. The World Bank said overnight that global growth is leaking away due solely to the Middle East handbrake. It now sees 2026 expanding at 2.5%, and 2027 at 2.8%. These are slowdowns from 2025's +2.9% expansion and the prospect is slowest growth since the pandemic. Meanwhile OPEC bravely says that world oil demand will recover quickly after the current Persian Gulf issues are resolved. Global container freight rates rose another +3% last week to be level with the elevated rates of a year ago, when the Houthis were threatening the Red Sea access. It is all about outbound rates from China to Europe. In fact, China to the USWC rates are holding, but much lower on a year-ago basis. Bulk cargo rates fell -12% in the past week to be +68% higher than year-ago levels. And official forecasters are now certain enough to warn of a severe El Niño climate event starting soon. The US issued its official warning after Australia said the chances are rising. We are being warned to expect 2026-27 to bring global risks of intense heat waves, sharp drops in rainfall in some key areas but deluges in other parts. India is expected to get a weak monsoon. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.45%, down -9 bps for the day. The price of gold has recovered +US$54 from yesterday at US$4152/oz. Silver is up US$1.50 at US$66/oz. Oil prices are down -US$5 from yesterday at just under US$86.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$89.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are resuming today with 69 in the past 24 hours as owners rush to get their ships out. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just under 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.8 which is also little-changed from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,223 and up +2.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

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    Financial markets pricing in quagmire risk

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 10, 2026 5:16


    Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.  Today we lead with news the US is frustrated with Iran and is promising even more military strikes. The deal Trump thought was close, isn't. The escalation threat has oil and financial markets reacting badly. But first today, American CPI inflation jumped from 3.8% in April to 4.2% in May, largely as expected and largely based on higher fuel costs. This is its highest since April 2023. Today's geopolitical events and markets reactions probably mean it isn't finished with the current trajectory. Actually, for March, April and now May, their CPI index rose +2.0% in just those months, so the rate being experienced by consumers (annualised +8%?) is very much higher than the annual one reported. The White House reaction was very unexpected: Trump said, "You know, I love the inflation." Certainly, financial markets were unimpressed. There was a large jump in American mortgage applications last week even though benchmark home loan interest rates stayed elevated at about 6.6%. After six weeks of holding back, it seems borrowers are coming to accept that they have to pay these higher rates. Remember pre-war, these rates were under 6.1%. The jump in applications this week were from both new borrowers and those needing refinance. For a seventh straight week, and including stocks in their strategic reserve, American crude oil stocks dropped in the latest update, and by almost double the rate expected. Today's US Treasury 10yr bond auction was well supported and yield's rose only modestly for this one, coming in at 4.48% median (4.54% high bid), up from 4.41% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In Canada, their central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% as expected, and for the fifth consecutive time. They had inflation at 2.8% in April so, so far, there is little evidence higher energy prices are being passed on or embedded in their consumer cost base. Data out in Japan yesterday shows their May producer prices rose +6.3% from a year ago, up from 5.3% in April and the fastest rise since the end of the pandemic in March 2023. After the April spurt, they rose another +0.9% in May alone. China's CPI inflation level was low and stable in May, coming in at 1.2% from a year ago, unchanged from April. Beef prices were up +4.2% however and lamb prices up +6.2%. Egg prices are up +6.6% on the same basis and a five year high. These were more than offset by a -16% drop in Chinese pork prices though. And dairy prices fell -1.2% on the same year-ago basis. But China's producer prices are not so calm. In fact they rose an outsized +5.8% in May from a year ago for industrial products, up 3.9% overall when you broaden the categories to include food, clothing and other goods produced for consumers. Apart from the pandemic, the headline 3.9% is the highest they have had since August 2018. In Australia, we should note that their emergency petrol tax concession will end at the end of June. That will juice up their inflation if it isn't extended. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.54%, up +1 bp for the day.  The price of gold will start today down another -US$160 from yesterday at US$4098/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at US$64.50/oz. Oil prices are up +US$3 from yesterday at just under US$91.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$94.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are almost non-existent today, only 2 in the past 24 hours.. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.8 which is down -10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$61,781 and little-changed (up +0.3%) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

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    Global export gains impress

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 9, 2026 7:00


    Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news uncertainty swirls in the Middle East as Iran has shot down an American Apache helicopter (and Trump is looking more like Jimmy Carter by the day). But more ships are transiting (paying Iran's toll), and that extra oil is easing the global price. But first locally, the overnight dairy Pulse auction delivered lower prices for the four products offered. AMF was down -4.6% from last week's full auction. Butter was down -0.6%. SMP was down -5.5% and WMP was down -3.5%. But an intervening -2% fall in the NZD took some of the sting out of these retreats. In the US, NFIB Business Optimism Index fell again and to its lowest since October 2024.. These businesses are struggling with "significant and unpredictable hikes in fuel prices", which they find harder to pass on to their customers compared to their larger corporate competitors. The weekly ADP jobs report said new private sector jobs created were lower last week at +29,000, in fact their lowest since the end of March. American existing home sales actually rose in May to an annualised rate of 4.17 mln, its highest of the year. This was impressive because mortgage interest rates rose in the period and seems not to have been the handbrake sometimes assumed. All the same, unsold inventory rose. There was a small but notable increase in demand for the overnight and popular US Treasury 3 year bond which delivered a median yield of 4.15% (high of 4.19%), sharply up on the 3.92% median at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In April, US exports of goods and services rose +2.6% from March +12.5% from a year ago, helped by better exports of crude oil, AI computer gear and aircraft, but most offset by a quite sharp fall in tourism receipts. Imports were up +1.9% from March, up +9.1% from a year ago, dominated by capital goods and rising transport and travel cost by Americans. Their trade deficit narrowed slightly, but big trade deficits remained with Taiwan (-$19.3 nln), Vietnam (-$19.3 bln), Mexico (-$14.8 bln), China (-$12.0 bln), the EU (-$7.2 bln), and Canada (-$6.2 bln). The Texas screwworm outbreak is spreading which will affect their beef trade. The outbreak now includes for a dog. Meanwhile, Canadian exports rose +1.6% from the previous month to C$75.2 bln in April, the highest on record and up +24.7% from the same month a year ago. Imports rose too, but they still managed to report their best monthly trade surplus since January 2025 and their best April since 2008. Across the Pacific, China's exports surged +19.4% in May from a year ago to a record high of US$377 bln, far exceeding forecasts of +15% and accelerating sharply from April's 14.1% rise. It was the fastest increase since February and gave them a trade surplus of +US$105.4 bln. However, Chinese oil imports hit an eight year low in May. Across the strait, Taiwan said its exports rose even more impressively, up +52% from a year ago. Their imports were up +55%. That means a trade surplus for them of +US$17.9 bln, middle-range for what they have had since October 2025 and wildly higher than in any prior period Japanese machine tool orders fell in May from April after falling in April too. But they remain up +37% from a year ago. The monthly easing was for orders from both domestic and foreign customers. Staying in Japan, reports are growing that their central bank will raise its policy rate by +25 bps to 1.0% when they meet on Friday week. And they are likely to pause their JGB bond sell-down program that is underway. And in Indonesia, their central bank held an emergency meeting to assess the economic crisis growing in their financial and fx markets. At that meeting they hikes their policy rate to 5.50%, a hike of +25 bps. They last met only three weeks ago when they raised their rate by +25 bps at that time too. They started 2026 with a 4.75% rate. Their actions are required to stop the Indonesian currency falling sharply, down -7.8% in 2026. In Europe, the Netherlands blocked an American company from buying a local firm that handles its national ID system, saying it would create a “threat to the public interest.” The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.53%, down -2 bps for the day. The price of gold will start today down -US$75 from yesterday at US$4258/oz. Silver is down a sharp -US$3.50 at just under US$65/oz. Oil prices are down -US$2.50 from yesterday at just under US$88.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$91.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are still very low despite the pricing optimism. China's crude imports dropped to around 7.8 million barrels per day last month, the lowest level in more than eight years and nearly 4 million barrels per day below the 2025 average. Weaker shipments to from the world's largest oil importer even if caused by Hormuz, combined with record US exports and emergency reserve releases, has limited the price impact of the Middle East conflict. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.9 which is up +10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$61,545 and down -2.95% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

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    Iran extracts Persian Gulf tolls

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 8, 2026 4:12


    Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that yesterday's renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran seem to have been paused. And financial markets are reacting as though this is something permanent, a deluded reading of even recent history. It is more an excuse to bet on higher equity prices again. Away from these irrational markets and after hitting a two and a half year high in April at 3.5%, American inflation expectations for one year ahead slipped back to 3.2% in May, according to the latest national New York Fed survey update. Given that April's actual inflation was recorded at 3.8%, this represents a sanguine view of what lies ahead. More broadly, the same survey shows that households expect their financial situation to deteriorate. It is not only households. In a focus on the SME sector, another national review found them deeply pessimistic about 2026 prospects. Across the Pacific in Japan, some top-line data out yesterday for the March quarter points to improving metrics. GDP came in with a +1.8% growth rate and better than expected (+1.3%). And bank lending data shot up in May, up +5.7% and easily exceeding the expansion of +5.4% in April from a year ago. In China, construction machinery sales were strong in May with excavator sales up +36% from year-ago levels as infrastructure projects gain momentum. Things are not so bright for car sales in China. Sales ‌dropped -22% from a year earlier to 1.53 million vehicles in May, the eighth consecutive monthly fall. Even EV sales fell (-5%). In Germany, they posted some negative factory order data for April. They were down -3.8% on an inflation adjusted basis from the previous month, but that came after a +4.5% rise on the same basis for March. From a year ago, also in real terms, German factory orders were up +1.6% in April. And factory sales didn't decline in April either. In the Persian Gulf, to cross the Strait of Hormuz, the transit trickle is still low but not zero. Only ten ships crossed in the past 24 hours. It has now been 100 days since the crisis began and it seems Iran is successfully tolling the Strait, according to maritime sources. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.55%, up just +1 bp for the day.  The price of gold will start today up +US$5 from yesterday at US$4333/oz. Silver is up +US$1 at just under US$68.50/oz. Oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$91/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$94/bbl and up +US$1. Hormuz transits are still very low despite the pricing optimism. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at this time at just over 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.8 which is up +20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$63,416 and up +1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

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    Market fears of rising inflation push up interest rates

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 7, 2026 7:06


    Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news US benchmark interest rates rose notably after their apparently strong labour market report. But first, locally this week it will be about migration and travel data for April, possibly plus the May PMIs. In Australia, we will be watching for the April building permit data, along with updates for May for their consumer and business confidence surveys. In the US, they will release its consumer and producer inflation figures, the final price gauges before this month's Federal Reserve decision at the end of next week, in addition to existing home sales and their trade balance. Likewise, trade data and inflation data is coming from China as well as new yuan lending data. Trade data from Taiwan will drop this week too. And at the end of the week we will get central bank decisions from Canada and the ECB. On the corporate front, SpaceX will release what is likely to be the largest IPO on record. Over the weekend, China said its foreign exchange reserves swelled again and are now at US$3.44 tln and their highest since October 2015. They added a bit more gold but its value eased in the past month, so this wasn't a factor in the expanding reserves. Also, there was data out for Taiwanese inflation (firmish but low at 2.2%), Singapore retail (doing better with a +5.4% rise from a year ago), and an Indian central bank policy rate review (holding at 5.25%). None of these moved markets. Meanwhile, India said its Q1-2026 economic expansion rolled on with a better growth rate (+7.8%) than markets were expecting (+7.2%). In the US, the anticipated non-farm payrolls report delivered a strong result over the weekend, with a +172,000 jobs gain at the headline level and more than double the expected +82,000 gain. From a year ago, that is a rise of +503,000. But this data is the seasonally adjusted result from payroll employment. Looking more broadly, US civilian employment rose +149,000 in May from April but is -504,000 lower than year-ago levels. It is clearly very tough indeed for the unincorporated self employed. Of the headline jobs gain, +70,000 were in their hospitality sector (expecting a soccer World Cup boost?), local government added +55,000 jobs, healthcare +35,000, social assistance +17,000. There we no changes or declines in the manufacturing, IT and administration sectors, and little in the construction sector. Basically, lower paid jobs rose, higher paid ones shrank. The US no longer releases details of full-time, part-time job changes or detail. Total American consumer debt rose by +US$21 in May, following a downwardly revised +US$22 bln gain in April. This was slightly more than expected. Revolving credit, which includes credit card debt, rose +US$14 bln while nonrevolving credit, which includes vehicle and student loans, rose +US$8 bln in the month. This data shows sustained consumer demand for debt despite elevated borrowing costs and the rising interest-rate environment. And that, along with the gritty labour market questions, has driven a pullback in attitudes, to a more risk-off, defensive posture at the end of last week. More investors see the US Fed pushing ahead with rate hikes earlier than anticipated to try and not be blindsided from rising inflation getting embedded. After all, the Strait of Hormuz remains shut, and oil prices have ended the week higher than where they started. In turn that risk-off has driven US benchmark interest rates up, equity markets lower, and the US currency very much higher, Canada also released its May jobs data over the weekend and that was better than expected too. They added +88,000 jobs when a gain of only +10,000 was anticipated. Better, their full-time jobs grew +154,000 in the month, as part-time jobs shrank. Their jobless rates fell notably to 6.6%, from 6.9% in April and continuing the downward trend that started in October 2025. A stronger jobs market may also give the Bank of Canada cover to raise rates to get ahead of their inflation threats, too. In the EU, Ireland has had a stunning reversal of fortune, with their economy contracting more than -12% in Q1-2026. It alone was enough to twist the overall EU GDP lower. Ireland's multinational-dominated sectors contracted by -27% in Q1-2026 with their domestic sectors expanding by +0.4% and more in line with the other EU countries. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.54%, unchanged from this time Saturday but up +11 bps for the week.  The price of gold will start today up +US$4 from Saturday at US$4328/oz. That is down -US$227/oz (or -5.1%) from this time last week and about its lowest level of the year. Silver is down -50 USc at just under US$67.50/oz, down -10% for the week. Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday just on US$90.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$93/bbl. Hormuz transits are still very low despite the pricing optimism. A week ago these prices were US$87.50/bbl and US$91.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar has stayed down from Saturday at this time at just under 58 USc. From a week ago it is down -190 bps. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.6 which is down -10 bps from Saturday, down -170 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$62,246 and recovering +3.4% from this time Saturday and still falling. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.1%.  You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

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    World getting tired of amateur hour

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 4, 2026 4:41


    Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with Hezbollah has rejected being part of a US-Iran accommodation, and Israel is continuing to attack it in Beirut and southern Lebanon. Despite this, markets still hope that a ceasefire can be agreed and the Strait of Hormuz opened. They are pricing it will, but it is shut still today. Elsewhere and in the US, there were 97,000 announced job cuts in May, the most since January and the highest May since 2020 and the pandemic effect - and prior to that the highest since this tracking began in 1999. Most of the current layoffs are in the tech industry, and due to AI displacement. Markets await the May non-farm payrolls report tomorrow and the expectation is for a modest +85,000 net jobs gain. This is despite the private ADP report indicating a higher level. US initial jobless claims were little-changed last week at 188,000 although seasonal factors would have expected a solid -10,000 fall from that level. There are now 1.64 mln people on these benefits. lower than year ago levels. And staying in the US, they have found the flesh-eating screwworm in their Texas cattle herd, another reason their beef industry is unlikely to be able to sustain its output. The EU said its retail sales volume growth was weak in April, up +0.9%, up +1.0% in the euro area from a year ago. From the prior month, these volumes dipped. But this dip actually doesn't interrupt the rising trend in place since late 2023 We are ending the week with the price of some key commodities like copper, tin and aluminium hold just off their recent peaks. China is facing broad pushback at the level of subsidising it gives its steel industry. The OECD singled them out for criticism urging coordinated action against them to save capability around the world. A new round of defensive trade barriers will likely follow. Chinese over-capacity is enabled by these subsidies and it drives down prices everywhere as Chinese companies rush to quit stocks they can't sell at home. The geopolitical toll on the logistics industry is starting to bite. Global container freight rates surged +23% this week from the prior week to be up basically level with year-ago levels (which were unusually high due to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea). Most of this is due to the hikes in rates for the outbound China trade routes. Meanwhile bulk cargo freight rates eased back a minor -3% after their recent peak last week. In Australia, AI is being put to use driving legal claims by amateurs. Courts are being flooded with AI written plaintiff claims, especially for personal injury, unfair dismissal, rent disputes, and 'pain & suffering' claims. New powers are being rushed through the Canberra parliament to try and stem the flood. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$41 at US$4478/oz. Silver is up +50 USc at just under US$74/oz. Oil prices are down -US$4 just over US$92/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$94.50/bbl and down -US$3.50. Hormuz remains shut however despite the pricing optimism. The Kiwi dollar is firmer from yesterday at this time at 58.8 USc, up +20 bps. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just under 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3 which is up +10 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$63,013 and down another -4.3% from this time yesterday and still falling. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

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    Oil up on Persian Gulf fighting

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 3, 2026 5:53


    Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news intensified clashes in the Persian Gulf has oil prices rising, little transit activity in the Strait of Hormuz, and significant disconnect from Trump's claim that both sides are still negotiating. Clearly they aren't, In the world economy, and first in the US, mortgage applications fell again last week, a third consecutive weekly easing mostly driven by lower refinance activity. Mortgage interest rates eased back however even if they remain at close to one year highs. Ahead of this weekend's US non-farm payrolls report (expect +85,000), private businesses added +122,000 jobs in May according to the ADP survey, a new high since January 2025, compared to a downwardly revised +105,000 in April and above forecasts of +117,000. Hiring was broad-based they report and say it augers well going into the summer hiring season. But this isn't backed up by the US services PMIs for the US. The May ISM services PMI reported a good expansion, about the average it has been in 2026 and slightly higher than expected. Good new order flows are behind the result. But the same firms reported contracting staffing levels and faster input cost pressures. The parallel S&P Global services PMI was less upbeat, noting a muted increase in business activity, optimism faltering and employment falling solidly. Overall, it is a jobless expansion, these PMIs both say. US factory orders are reflecting some of the stockpiling effects we have noted earlier. In April these orders rose +13.0% in nominal dollar terms above year-ago levels. But without aircraft and defense orders, they were up +5.8% - still a good result but mostly accounted for by inflation. And remember PPI rose +6.0% in the same twelve month period. American crude oil stocks fell again, for the sixth consecutive week and the largest fall in this period. Over the past year, it has fallen more only in three specific weeks but each of those were not in a continuing series. Their strategic oil stocks are now at their lowest in 22 years. The US Fed's Beige Book surveys for May reported most of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts had slight-to-modest increases in growth, though a handful experienced flat or slightly declining activity. Labour markets remained tight but were cooling. Business respondents said rising input costs for nonlabour inputs were largely able to be passed on to consumers. Consumer spending was described as mixed, heavily influenced by affordability concerns and shifts in discretionary income. In Canada key housing markets in Ontario, new listings have fallen, as have prices, and more homes are selling but also, more are selling at a loss. In Japan, their central bank will meet next in a bit over a week and their Governor has indicated that rate hikes will be discussed to weigh against rising inflation, even that pushed by higher energy costs. According to the private S&P Global (RatingDog) services PMI for China, that sector is expanding on a faster basis, much stronger than as reported by their official data. New business is expanding and they are hiring faster. But they also face their highest cost pressure since October 2023. Meanwhile, Australia released its Q1-2026 GDP data today, saying their economy expanded +2.5% in real terms over the past year. But the growth rate slowed in the March quarter from the December 2025 quarter. Rising interest rates and significantly higher fuel costs in the March month likely created an environment for more cautious consumer behaviour. This resulted in reduced spending across a range of household expenditure categories. And exports fell. The unders and overs likely balanced out but the level of spending on equipment for new data centers was so large it might have accounted for all the Q1 gain. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.49%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today down -US$45 at US$4437/oz. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just under US$73.50/oz. Oil prices are up another +US$2.50 just over US$96/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$98/bbl and up +US$2. Hormuz remains shut. The Kiwi dollar is lower from yesterday at this time at 58.6 USc, down -60 bps. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at just under 50.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2 which is down -50 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$65,847 and down another -2.4% from this time yesterday and still falling. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just under +/- 1.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

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    Gold resurgent at US Treasuries expense

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 2, 2026 4:27


    Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of a changing of the guard. Countries are moving away from US Treasuries as a core reserve asset, replacing it with gold. At the same time, crypto values including for bitcoin, seem to be fading fast. But first up today, there was a full dairy auction overnight, one that brought slightly lower overall prices, with the USD index falling -0.6% mainly on -3% lower SMP prices. Milk fat products like AMF. Butter and Cheddar all rose, offsetting the fall in powder prices. But the NZD has also strengthened, so the result in NZD terms was a -2.0% fall. A pull-back in demand from China is part of this story too. In the US, they reported a surge in April job openings, their most in 18 months, notably in California and other western states. It is a services related thing, with manufacturing jobs not really participating. Meanwhile, the US RCM/TIPP economic sentiment survey fell slightly in June from may, but to its lowest in two years. And the US Logistics Managers Index is showing the full impacts of the current supply-chain disruptions and stockpiling. It held in May at its highest since the pandemic stress period. It is increasing at an increasing rate for inventory costs, warehousing capacity, and freight prices. In China, we should note that it is wheat harvest season and that they expect a bumper result. At the same time, both Australian and US farmers are hesitating in their plans for wheat as high fertiliser and fuel costs threaten to make the prospects very uncertain. In the EU and as expected, CPI inflation firmed up to 3.2% in May from 3.0% in April. Their core inflation rose as well. It seems to be only about rising fuel costs at present with the spread wider quite limited. Will the ECB hike its policy rate on June 11? Markets are betting 100% it will. In Australia, they have slipped into their first trade deficit since 2017 in the March 2026 quarter. Exports of minerals fell (except for gold) while imports of data center equipment surged. Globally, it is worth noting again that aluminium, zinc, copper and tin are all now either at record highs or at post-pandemic highs. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.46%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday.  The price of gold will start today down -US$9 at US$4482/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at just over US$75/oz. Interestingly, an ECB analysis released overnight has highlighted that after the run-up in the gold price, at the same time as the value of US Treasuries fell, gold was the largest single asset held for 'foreign reserves'. (see Chart 7) Oil prices are up another +US$2 just under US$93.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now on US$96/bbl and up +US$1.50. Hormuz remains shut. The Kiwi dollar is lower from yesterday at this time at 59.2 USc, down -30 bps. Against the Aussie we are also down -40 bps at 82.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.7 which is down -20 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at just on US$67,464 and down a sharp -5.9% from this time yesterday and falling. Crypto funds are getting excess redemptions at present. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/- 3.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

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    Hot mess & strategic failure

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 1, 2026 6:48


    Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the scale of Trump's strategic failure with Iran is becoming clearer. Iran holds the key cards, it seems, and there is little but bluster and renewing its military flailing he can do about it. Even Israel seem to be ignoring Trump's potency, which is another signal of regional chaos. Iranian media reported that Tehran had suspended communications with Washington, following the attacks in Lebanon, and will move to fully close the Strait of Hormuz - and open new fronts in their war pushback. We are just going to have to live with the resulting chronic mess. And that probably means elevated inflation for much longer and all that brings with it - like supply chain disruptions and logistic twists. Stockpiling, itself an indication of economic inefficiency, is the current way the global economy is reacting, in turn an inflation enhancer. First today in the US, that stockpiling is showing up in their two May factory PMI reports. The S&P Global version recorded output growth rose to its strongest level since April 2022 as buyers scramble to beat price rises and supply delays. Input costs rose at their fastest rate since mid-2022. Meanwhile the ISM version reported very similar conditions, even if at a slightly lesser level. In Canada, their factory PMI version reported that growth was sustained in May as output, new orders and employment all rose. But like in the US, this is all trying to beat the cost pressures and supply chain challenges that are intensifying. In Japan, their May factory PMI remained unusually strong. But firms there signaled further strong increases in production with sales Input costs and selling prices rising at some of the steepest rates on record. Stock building efforts are still very much in evidence amid the ongoing and substantial supply chain disruptions. In South Korea, their factory upturn, already strong, gathered more pace amid stockpiling efforts. Output rises are their strongest in five years. Price pressures persist and remain near record highs. Meanwhile jobs growth is now at its highest since March 2013 as the outlook improves. Meanwhile Korean exports surged +53% from a year ago to a record US$88 bln for the month. (For perspective, New Zealand exports run at about US$6 bln per month average. Australia is about US$32 bln/mth.) Their biggest increases were to China, although there were outsized export gains to the US. Their explosive growth is largely around their IT sector. In Taiwan, their factory output expanded at quickest rate since July 2021 in May. New orders continue to rise sharply. Firms report intense cost pressures here too, amid severe supply chain disruption. Stockpiling efforts are driving a quicker upturn in purchasing activity, they say. In China, their non-official S&P Global factory PMI was good, but nothing like their smaller neighbours. Growth rates for new orders and output remain good, although export orders fell. Input price inflation eased for first time in six months. They also have stockpiling effects as factories raised input stocks because supplier delivery times stretched out again. Indian industrial production stayed expanding in April and at a good rate, similar to what they have had since July 2025, and showing none of the slowdown analysts had been expecting to see in their data. EU inflation expectations as tracked by the broad ECB survey shows them unchanged at 4.0% in April. Analysts had expected them to rise to 4.3% but that didn't eventuate. The EU factory PMI is still expanding but at quite a modest rate even as they have the same cost pressures everyone else is reporting. In Australia, and in something of a surprise, the Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge recorded a -0.3% fall in May from April, after consecutive rises in the previous two months. The fall was primarily influenced by lower transport-related prices, attributable largely to fuel and the excise tax rollback. For the year to May this gauge reports inflation at 4.4%. The monthly cost of living also declined in May from April, particularly for self-funded retirees. The updated Australian PMI shows little real expansion with the steepest fall in new orders since last October being recorded for May. But prices are being pushed up all the same with selling price inflation at a 45-month high as sharp rises in input costs keep coming. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.47%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday.  Wall Street has started its week ignoring the Middle East situation with the S&P500 up +0.4% and enough to claim another new record high. The Nasdaq is up +0.7%. Both markets consumed by the big tech IPOs underway.  The price of gold will start today down -US$48 at US$4491/oz. Silver is up +50 USc at just under US$75.50/oz. Oil prices are up +US$4 just under US$91.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now on US$94.50/bbl and up +US$3.50. Oil had been starting to trade like Hormuz was open, but no more. The Kiwi dollar is lower from yesterday at this time at 59.5 USc, down -50 bps. Against the Aussie we are also down -50 bps at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at just under 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.9 which is down -40 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$71.684 and down -2.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

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    Talks & fights, truce awaits approvals

    Play Episode Listen Later May 28, 2026 6:32


    Kia ora. Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US and Iran have apparently agreed a 60 day truce, pending Trump's signoff. All the while, both sides traded attacks in the region. The small number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz has virtually dried up. Meanwhile, US jobless claims slipped last week to 185,600 and by about what seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.68 mln people on these benefits, less than one and two years ago. There was a sharp drop in new home sales reported for April, and they were -11.3% lower than year ago levels. Rising mortgage rates is weighing heavily on this sector. But they reported a sharp increase in durable goods orders in April, up +19% from a year ago, up notably from March. This is where we see the full effect of stockpiling as buyers try to get ahead of rising inflation. One reason was a +41% jump in capital goods on the same basis. But excluding defense and aircraft orders, the increase was modest. The second estimate of GDP growth for Q1-2026 is out and it was revised lower, mainly on lower consumer spending and investment levels than in the initial estimate. They now say the US economy expanded +1.6% in the period. They also released the April data for US personal income and personal spending. This showed that personal disposable income fell from March, up +2.5% from a year ago, while personal consumption expenditures rose, up +5.9% from a year ago. In fact, their April PCE inflation measure rose to 3.8%, its highest since May 2023 and the end of the pandemic effect, and prior to that the highest since this data was collated in 2017. Undoubtedly, this has the Fed's attention, especially the accelerating nature of it. US crude oil and petrol stocks fell again last week, but 'only' by about the levels expected. that extends the fall to five consecutive weeks, all substantial, and coming after three prior weeks of modest or no-change outcomes. Retail pump prices for petrol are still +48% higher than at the start of the Iran-US conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. There was a US Treasury 7yr note auction overnight and the yield increase was not as fierce as yesterday's event. This one delivered a median yield of 4.24% (high 4.29%), up from the 4.12% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In Canada, their central bank has released and updated Financial Stability Report which found that Canada's financial system has functioned well through a challenging year. Households and businesses remain in stable financial condition, and banks have strengthened their capacity to absorb shocks. Meanwhile they reported that average weekly earnings rose +3.5% in March from a year ago, a faster pace of increase. They have CPI inflation of +2.8% at the same time so Canadian employees are generally staying ahead of the cost pressures. The Korean central bank kept its official rate unchanged yesterday at 2.5%, as expected. Updated Australian household spending data for April shows it fell -1.1% month-on-month (on a current price, seasonally adjusted basis) to be +4.9% higher than in April 2025. In the same period CPI inflation rose 4.2%. The weak outcome is being attributed to the sharp hike in fuel costs, and compensating pullbacks elsewhere. It is their first fall in household spending in four months. And staying in Australia, they said private new capital expenditure rose +6.5% in the March quarter to be +14.6% higher than the March 2025 quarter. This strong growth is largely on the back of significant investment in data centers, up +96% and a new record high. Investment in mining was flat. The Middle East war lead to a -3.4% fall in air passenger demand in April. But Asia/Pacific international demand rose +3.0% from a year ago. For air cargo, demand was up +4.0% despite the turmoil, up +11.3% in the Asia/Pacific region. Global container shipping freight rates rose +3.2% last week from the prior week to be +12% higher than year-ago levels. This is largely driven by rates from China to the EU. Transpacific rates from China to the US West Coast actually fell last week. As did trade volumes. Meanwhile bulk cargo rates rose +4.4% last week, to be a massive +140% higher than a year ago. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.45%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$57 at US$4506/oz. Silver is back up +US$1.50 at just under US$76/oz. Oil prices have fallen -50 USc to just on US$89/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at US$93.50/bbl and down -US$1.50/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday at this time at 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +20 bps at just under 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.8 which is up +40 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$73,455 and down -1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and because Monday is a New Zealand holiday, we'll do this again on Tuesday.

    canada donald trump australia china canadian gold global european union new zealand iran rising middle east bitcoin investment silver korea korean retail fights usc aussie fed oil gdp kiwi asia pacific cpi strait kia volatility hormuz households truce us treasury ust aotearoa new zealand approvals twi iran us auc transpacific us west coast financial stability report
    Mixed messages on Hormuz progress

    Play Episode Listen Later May 27, 2026 4:57


    Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news commodity markets are betting all-in that a deal between the US and Iran will unlock the Strait of Hormuz soon. An Iranian State TV report has triggered the optimism. (And even though the US has denied it.) More ships are transiting, but it is still only a fraction of 'normal'. However it is enough to drive the price of crude oil lower. But despite all that, financial markets seem to remain unconvinced, or at least they have turned defensive due to what lies ahead of a resolution. How well any deal will stick between the two parties who have become quite transactional remains to be seen. Certainly the US is unlikely to be trusted to maintain the deal by both Iran, and even its own traditional allies. Iran will be Iran, agreeing but preparing for another attack/fight. The one thing the US/Israeli thing has done is solidify the Iranian regime's position at home. It no longer has internal dissent or street challenges, and it will thank Trump for that. In the US, mortgage applications fell sharply last week, as US 30 year mortgage rates rose. Most of the fall is from the outsized retreat in refinance activity (-18%), although new purchase activity did dip as well. Those mortgage rates rose to their highest level since August 2025. Meanwhile, the ADP tracking of private payrolls showed the good levels continued last week, even if there was a small dip posted. And that is supported by factory survey data out from the Richmond Fed for the mid-Atlantic states area. New order levels rose notable. And firms expected growth in prices paid to moderate slightly over the next 12 months. But there was no improvement in the forward expectations, despite these improvements. Meanwhile the Dallas Fed services sector survey remained quite negative, even if less so in May than in April. But their uncertainty metric is notably less. There was a US Treasury 5yr Note auction overnight and that delivered a yield of 4.13% (4.18% high), up sharply from the 3.90% yield at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In Australia, consumer price inflation came in lower than most analysts were expecting for Aril. It rose 4.2% from a year ago, lower than the March 4.6%, and lower than the expected 4.4%. From March, CPI prices rose +0.4%, also lower in the same way. A key reason is that fuel prices fell -7.0% from March to April, after rising 33% in the previous month. The fall this month includes the halving of the fuel excise on 1 April. Fuel prices are still +23.5% higher than in February and before the impact of the Middle East conflict. Apart from fuel, outsized rises were recorded for 'housing' (+6.3%) and 'clothing' (+5.9%). The main contributors to the annual housing rise were Electricity (+22.5%), New dwellings (+4.7%) and Rents (+3.5%). And staying in Australia, Westpac has been hit with a AU$26 mln civil penalty for not dealing with clients who were struggling financially in a proper way. Remediation of all costs to those clients was AU$1.7 mln. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.48%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down another -US$49 at US$4450/oz. Silver is down -US$1.50 at just under US$74.50/oz. Oil prices have fallen -US$4.50 to just on US$89.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at US$95/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +60 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +110 bps at 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +50 bps at just under 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.4 which is up +60 bps from yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,765 and down -1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.0%. Join us later today for full coverage of the 2026 Budget release, an election budget of course. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

    donald trump australia gold new zealand progress iran budget middle east bitcoin atlantic silver fuel usc aussie iranians oil electricity kiwi cpi strait kia volatility hormuz adp rents oil prices us treasury ust remediation aotearoa new zealand westpac mixed messages us israeli twi auc dallas fed aril

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