Economy Watch

Artificial intelligence (AI) should be a key election year issue especially given the technology has major potential to help improve New Zealand's productivity, says Mark Laurence. Laurence, founder and CEO of Ten Past Tomorrow which is an AI consultancy and education business, spoke to interest.co.nz in a new episode of the Of Interest podcast. "I'm kind of flabbergasted that it hasn't become a political talking point," Laurence says, noting AI "has become a really hot political topic" in the United States over the past six months. He describes AI as "a general purpose technology." "My focus is how does New Zealand, as a small, educated, economically prosperous and politically stable country, how do we become the best users of this technology where we as a nation, we're very skilled and very literate and know how to use it, know when to use it, know how to use it responsibly and ethically?" "Because you can scale from the individual productivity to national GDP on a very clear line." Laurence points out Singapore is spending NZ$1.25 billion over five years with the goal of tripling their AI practitioner workforce. The United Kingdom is investing US$500 million per year over the next five years with the goal of having 10 million AI literate workers by 2030. And Finland is spending €100 million per year for the next four years in AI readiness training. So does he think getting a more AI literate NZ population needs to be government led? "I do [think so] and I think importantly it needs to be non-partisan," Laurence says. " Whichever party wins [the election], this needs to happen. It's like to me, it's that critical to New Zealand productivity challenges. And so yes, it absolutely needs to be publicly led." However, he adds that in the countries making public investment he cites, private investment generally "floods in behind it." "We [NZ] have an AI strategy which was released last year. It's pretty flimsy and really if you kind of read between the lines, it's basically saying at the moment we're leaving this to the private sector to kickstart. I do think the stimulus needs to come, the action needs to come, the motivation needs to come, from public sectors," says Laurence. "Simply, this nation has an obsession with productivity challenges that we've developed in the last number of years. That's why I say sitting still is not a neutral option, it's a decision with consequences. The gap compounds [and] moves from being a gap to actually a chasm." In the podcast audio Laurence also talks about how NZ businesses are working with and thinking about AI, AI training, education opportunities from AI, guardrails and regulation, the previous technological breakthrough he compares AI with, how the effect and harms of AI on children could be worse than social media, why he says "AI is going to make lazy people super lazy and it will give dedicated people superpowers," and more. *You can find all previous episodes of the Of Interest podcast here.

Kia ora.Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the modest US inflation rate reported for January is fueling a disconnect and scepticism in US households.But first, this is a week where we will get the next RBNZ OCR review on Wednesday, important because it is Governor Brennan's first. And she will get her first inkling of January inflation impulses on Tuesday, and may have the January REINZ data later today. And she will likely know how the bank's consumer and business surveys are tracking, especially on inflation expectations.In Australia, the key data will come on Thursday with their January labour force updates. And the RBA will release the minutes of it February 4 meeting on Tuesday, always a potential market-moving event.The US Fed will also release its minutes this week. And we will get the advance estimate of Q4-2025 US GDP, as well as the Fed's [referred inflation gauge, the PCE. Canada will chime in with its own key releases.In China, markets will be closed for the week-long Lunar New Year holiday from February 16 to 23, although January foreign direct investment data is still expected to be released. Elsewhere, trade figures are due from Singapore, Malaysia, and New Zealand, while Malaysia will also publish inflation data.Over the weekend, China reported that that price deflation in their housing market picked up in January for a third straight month at a faster pace, overall down -3.1% from a year ago. In January, the year-on-year sales price of existing homes in first-tier cities fell by -7.6%. Specifically, prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen falling by -8.7%, -6.8%, -8.3%, and 6.5% respectively. In second- and third-tier cities, the year-on-year sales prices of existing homes fell by -6.2% and -6.1%. Prices for new-built houses fell too, but only by -2.1%.Staying in China, and as expected, the normal January surge in new yuan lending by banks occurred again this year, but by less than expected and by a -8.2% lower level than for 2025, -4.3% lower than for January 2024. And it was -5.8% lower than what was expected. It is a soft result and is typically followed by a sharply lower level of lending in February during the Spring Festival/CNY period. 2026 is off to a languid start for them.Meanwhile, China's export economy is still functioning at full speed. Their current account surplus widened to an unprecedented US$242 bln in Q4-2025, sharply higher than the US$164 bln recorded a year earlier.India also released bank loan data overnight, and their firms are borrowing up big. In fact, it was up +14.6% in January from a year ago, the strongest surge in a year.Malaysia reported that its economic activity rose +6.3% in Q4 2025 from a year ago, revised up from an initial 5.7% and accelerating from 5.4% growth in Q3. This was their sharpest expansion since Q4-2022, with broad gains in agriculture, driven by oil palm output (+16, manufacturing, and services.On Saturday in the US CPI inflation came in at 2.4% for the year to January, slightly below the expected 2.5%. Core inflation came in at the expected 2.5%. This result was all due to lower petrol prices and falling used car prices. However, food was up +2.9%, and rents were up +3.0%. Electricity prices were up +6.3% (thank you, AI) and home gas was up +9.8%. It will be hard for households to feel inflation is under control.And key will be how the US Fed will interpret this data when setting their policy rates at their next meeting on March 19, 20206 (NZT). Markets currently expect a hold, and at least until the middle of the year.And one reason food prices seem higher there than the official data is that US beef cattle herd is now at its lowest in 75 years. This helps explain why US imports are soaring, and prices are high & rising.And don't forget, it is a long holiday weekend in the US for Washington's Birthday/President's Day. US-based activity will be low tomorrow and that will show up in our financial markets.The UST 10yr yield is still just under 4.06%, little-changed from Saturday but it is down -15 bps from this time last week.The price of gold will start today up +US$21 from Saturday at US$5041/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at US$77.50/oz today.American oil prices are little-changed at just under US$63/bbl, while the international Brent price is still under US$68/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is little-changed against the USD from Saturday, now just on 60.4 USc and down -10 bps. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 85.4 AUc. We are down marginally again against the yen. Against the euro we are unchanged at 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today little-changed, now at 63.8 and down -10 bps from Saturday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$68,565 and down -0.8% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modeST at just under +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora.Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news global financial markets are showing nerves ahead of tomorrow's US CPI data, not only because there is upside risk that will restrain the US Fed from, rate cuts, but also gun-shy after getting non-farm payrolls reports they basically didn't believe. Sanitised US data is a risk no-one wants (other than the White House.)First in the US, there were 248,000 initial jobless claims last week, a small decrease but the one explained by seasonal factors. There are now 2.215 mln people on these benefits, more than the 2.19 mln in the same week a year ago.And American existing home sales came in sharply lower in January that the good December level. They ran at a -4.4% lower rate than in January 2025, and even lower than the unusually low January 2024 level. They fell everywhere and was the largest fall in four years, although prices rose marginally from a year ago.The New York Fed released a detailed review of "who pays" the Trump tariff taxes, and surprise, surprise, they found it is almost exclusively (90%) Americans who pay. Who knew? They also found that after these tariffs, China's share of US imports is basically unchanged. Some people are slow learners - tariff taxes are a tax on yourself. But you have to take stage one economics to learn this stuff.In India, they released CPI inflation data overnight and it came in at 2.75%, their highest since May. And we should also probably note that protests in India are growing against their recently-agreed free-trade deal with the US.In China, their Spring Festival / Chinese New Year formally starts on Tuesday, and a lot depends on the consumer spending patterns during this two week annual break. Forward bookings for travel indicate a record level of travel, a sharp jump in international travel, and a preference for independent, non-package holidays. Thailand, Russia, Turkey and the Philippines are getting outsized bookings this year.Separately, China has rolled back its steep tariff penalty on EU dairy products.In Australia. consumer inflation expectations rose in February to 5.0%. This follows a seven-month period of below five-per cent expectations. The increase in February is present across a number of inflation expectations measures.And staying in Australia, chances are rising that extended drought conditions related to the return of an El Niño weather pattern that may come later in 2026. It will be hotter there too. If that occurs, there will be spillover implications for New Zealand, particularly for the rural sector.Global container freight rates were little-changed last week (-1%), to be -38% lower than year-ago levels. Once again, the key change were weaker outbound China rates. Although shifting in between, bulk cargo rates are essentially unchanged from a week ago, but they are +150% higher than year-ago levels. (But that base was unusually low.)The UST 10yr yield is now just over 4.11%, and down -6 bps from yesterday in a hard shift to 'safety'.The price of gold will start today down -US$122 from yesterday at US$4953/oz. Silver is down a very sharp -US$8 at US$76/oz and even more volatility.American oil prices are down -US$2 at just over US$63/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$68/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down a minor -10 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just over 60.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 85.2 AUc. We are down again against the yen. But against the euro we are unchanged at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today also little-changed, still at 63.9.The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,288 and up +0.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora.Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news of what seems to be an outlier jobs report that has financial markets sceptical.US non-farm payrolls were claimed to have risen +130,000 in January in delayed data released today, far above the downwardly revised +48,000 level for December and more than double analysts' collective estimates. All the gains seem to be in their healthcare sector. If it stands, it undermines the case for Fed rate cuts.Market reactions have not been supportive, with bond yields rising, rate curves fattening, the equity markets falling, and the USD falling.The detail of this jobs report remains 'interesting' all the same. Raw (not seasonally adjusted) data shows payrolls actually fell -2.65 mln in January from December, down -2.85 mln from November. And nested within this data are revisions for calendar 2025 now showing employment growth for 2025 revised down to +181,000 from +584,000 previously reported, implying average monthly job gains of just +15,000.These revisions bring the official data back looking like the private ADP data - except for the January headline result. Markets expect this to be revised sharply down in coming months.US mortgage applications fell again last week, the third consecutive dip, although not as sharp as the prior two.There was another US Treasury bond auction overnight, this one for their ten year Note. It was well supported. The median yield came in at 4.11%, down from the 4.13% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.Meanwhile, the US budget deficit keeps getting worse. It will grow in fiscal 2026 to -US$1.85 tln, the Congressional Budget Office said overnight. Current policy settings are worsening the country's fiscal picture amid low economic growth, particularly the enormous tax-cuts for the rich. They say the "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax cuts will will add $4.7 tln to US deficits.Across the Pacific, there is still no inflation in China, and it has turned toward deflation faster than expected. Their annual inflation rate eased to +0.2% in January from an already very low 0.8% in the previous month. This is its lowest level since October and below market estimates of 0.4%. Food prices fell for the first time in three months (-0.7% vs 1.1% in December) while non-food inflation slowed sharply too (0.4% vs 0.8%). Meanwhile, Chinese producer price deflation eased to -1.4%.China also released January car sales data, coming in at 2.35 mln for the month. However, that was -3.3% lower than for January 2025 and +-3.8% lower than the same month in 2024. Notably soft were NEV sales in January. Perhaps we are seeing signs of maturing (or exhaustion?) in this very dynamic market. It's is hugely important to China's industrial base, selling more than 34 mln units in 2025.In Australia, the number of new owner-occupier new home loan commitments rose +7.5 in the December 2025 quarter compared with a year ago. On a value basis, that rose +18.9%. For housing investor loans for the same periods, the number of new loans rose +24%, and their value rose +32%.The UST 10yr yield is now just under 4.17%, and up +2 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today up +US$58 from yesterday at US$5075/oz. Silver is up +US$3.50 at US$84/oz and extending its new volatility.American oil prices are up +US$1 at just on US$65/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$70/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up a minor +10 bps against the USD from yesterday, still just under 60.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -50 bps at 85 AUc. We are also down against the yen. But against the euro we are up +20 bps at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today little-changed, still at about 63.9.The bitcoin price starts today at US$65,965 and down -5.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora.Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news financial markets are taking more notice of the lackluster US economic data today, with Wall Street equity markets hesitating, bond yields in a defensive twist, and the USD staying weaker.But first, the overnight dairy Pulse auction not only confirmed the prior week's sharp rises, it added to them. WMP was up a marginal +0.4% from a week ago to be up +14% from the start of 2026. Butter was up +6.8% from last week, up +18% year-to-date. And the SMP price was up +1.7% from last week, also up +14% so far this year. Everyone in the industry will welcome this confirmation of the recent rising trend, even if some of it is just USD weakness.Not so positive was the US retail sales report for December, which showed zero growth from November, to remain +2.3% higher than a year ago. Given CPI inflation is +2.7%, there is clear stagflation involved here.Meanwhile the weekly ADP employment report only showed private payrolls gaining +6,500 nationally, well within the margin of error. But at least it was better than the prior week's no-change.The January NFIB optimism index was also little-changed and still below the benchmark 100 level.US household debt as at the end of 2025 was recorded at US$18.8 tln, a +4.2% rise from the end of 2024. Non-housing debt rose only +2.6% in the same period, so Americans are taking on more housing debt at a faster pace. The same report shows delinquency rates on all loans rose to 4.8% of outstanding household debt, the highest level since 2017, driven by higher defaults among low-income and young borrowers.The overall soft US data probably helps make the case for another Fed rate cut at their next meeting on March 19, 2026 (NZT) but there is a lot to be revealed before then.In Australia, consumer sentiment slipped in February, and not insignificantly. Recall, the RBA has recently pushed through a rate rise. Analysts say the fall is a muted response compared to previous rate hikes. Over 80% of those surveyed expect interest rates to rise further in the next 12 months. Homebuyer sentiment has sunk as price expectations hit new 15 year high.Meanwhile, the NAB business sentiment survey results inched up in January, although revenues softened. That was offset by costs easing a bit faster.The UST 10yr yield is now just under 4.15%, and down a sharpish -5 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today down -US$55 from yesterday at US$5018/oz. Silver is down a sharp -US$3 at US$80.50/oz and continuing its extreme volatility.American oil prices are down -50 USc at just on US$64/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is little-changed against the USD from yesterday, still just under 60.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 85.5 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today unchanged at 63.9.The bitcoin price starts today at US$69,517 and down -0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora.Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news Taiwan's export prowess shows no signs of flagging.But first, US inflation expectations fell to 3.1% in January, the lowest in six months, compared to 3.4% in December. Consumers expect a slowdown in prices for petrol, and a slight easing in rent rises. But they still expect food prices to rise 5.7% over the next year.The release of US labour market data, and their CPI update later in the week is where the focus is currently. And the US dollar is weak again, back near its post-pandemic low.In China, their economy is gearing up for the Year of the Horse. China's Spring Festival holiday starts a week from today on February 17 and runs to March 3, 2026.Taiwanese exports in January were spectacular yet again. They were up +70% year-on-year to an all-time high of US$66 bln in the month, following stunning +43% growth in the previous month. Analysts were expecting a +50% rise. It is a virtuous result with every category of their export trade rising. Exports to the US jumped +150%, and are now accounting for one third of their third export trade - about the same as it is toi China.Malaysia's industrial production rose +4.8% in December from a year ago, the sixth straight month it has expanded by more than +4%.In Australia, household spending fell -0.4% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis. The only category that rose notably was alcohol sales. This follows rises of +1.0% in November and +1.4% in October. Household spending over the year remains high, up +5.0% in the year to December 2025.The UST 10yr yield is now just over 4.20%, and little-net change from yesterday.The price of gold will start today up +US$107 from yesterday at US$5073/oz. Silver is up a sharp +US$5.50 at US$83.50/oz after recovering from a 2026 low.American oil prices are up +US$1 at just on US$64.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just under 60.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -½c at 85.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 63.9, and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$70,013 and down -1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora.Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news all eyes will be on the US tech industry selloff that gathered pace last week, delivering collateral damage to cryptos, and a very volatile ride for precious metals.But first, this coming week will feature the delayed release of the January US non-farm payrolls report on Thursday (markets expect +70,000), and their CPI report on Saturday (markets expect 2.5%). Deviation from those expected levels will likely have financial market implications.Australia is set for a busy data week, with releases including household spending, consumer and business confidence, building permits, home loans, and consumer inflation expectations.In New Zealand the key data this week is for Q4-2025 ready mixed concrete, and migration updates. Plus Q1-2025 inflation expectation data.China will release its CPI and PPI data on Wednesday (expect 0.4%) as well as January new loan data this week too.In China over the weekend, their FX reserves got a boost from the weak USD in January which helped boost these by +US$41 bln from December to US$3.4 tln and the highest in more than a decade. That is up from US$3.2 tln in January 2025. They also added to their gold holdings, adding +40,000oz in the month to 74.19 mln oz. That is up +US$1.8 tln in a year.Also over the weekend, US economic data looked shaky. Initial US jobless claims rose by +22,000 from the previous week to 252,000 on the last week of January, sharply above market expectations of 212,000. There are now 2.215 mln people on these benefits, up +78,000 from a week ago but that is lower than a year ago (2.252 mln), even if it is very much higher than two years agoUS job openings fell by -386,000 to 6.5 mln in December, the lowest since September 2020 and well below market expectations of 7.2 mln.Job layoffs in January came in at 108,500, the highest level for a January since 2009.The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose marginally in February from its record low levels and it was a third consecutive monthly increase. Analysts had expected it to dip again. Despite the improvement, sentiment remained roughly 20% below January a year ago. The gains were driven largely by consumers with significant stock holdings, while sentiment among households without significant equity exposure stagnated at depressed levels. Year-ahead inflation expectations fell sharply to 3.5% from 4.0% in January, the lowest level since January 2025, while longer-term inflation expectations edged up for a second month to 3.4% from 3.3%.The jobless rate in Canada fell to 6.5% in January from 6.8% in the previous month, undershooting market expectations of 6.8%. But this 'improvement' was only due to fewer people looking for work. Their labour force contracted by -94,000, pushing the participation rate down to 65.0% from 65.4%. They lost -25,000 jobs in the month, interrupting the recent run of gains. But this was driven by a -70,000 fall in part-time jobs whereas full-time positions rose +45,000.Meanwhile Canadian retail sales data in both November and December came in quite positive.And their January Ivey PMI remained expansionary, a surprise because it was expected to shift back into contraction.Japan has been voting in their snap national election. It was essentially a referendum about Sanae Takaichi, a die-hard conservative in the Shinzo Abe mould. She has won convincingly with a rare single-party majority. Actually, it is better that that, a rare two-thirds super-majority.There was an election in Thailand as well, one where the ruling conservative/royalist/military party won, with 45% of seats decided, plus the proportional representation seats.At the end of last week, around the world, there were a series of central bank policy updates. The Reserve Bank of India kept its its key policy rate at 5.25% during its overnight February after cutting it by -25 bps at the prior December meeting. This is what was expected.In the EU, the ECB left its policy interest rates unchanged at its first policy meeting of 2026, on the basis that inflation is stable an within its target policy range. It is the "good place" the central bank wants to see.The Bank of England left its rate unchanged too, at 3.75%. But that was a close-run thing with a 5-4 vote.German factory orders surged +7.8% in December from November, defying market expectations for a -2.2% drop and accelerating from November's marginally revised +5.7% gain. It is up more than +13% from a year ago. It marked the fourth straight monthly increase and the strongest since December 2023.Australia recorded a merchandise trade surplus of +AU$6.7 bln in December, down -23% from the same month in 2024, taking the full 2025 surplus to +AU$45.0, which in turn was -33% lower than for all of 2024. Exports were $523.2 bln for the year, up only +1%. That gain was only possible because gold exports rose +66% to AU$60.9 bln for the full year. Rural exports rose +13.7% to AU$77.5 bln in 2025. Other mineral export receipts tanked.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.21%, unchanged from Saturday.The price of gold will start today very little-changed from Saturday at US$4966/oz. Silver is also little-changed at US$78/oz. In China, gold sales to investors topped those for jewelry from the first time in 25 years.American oil prices are down about -50 USc at just on US$63.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$68/bbl. A week ago these prices similar.The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps against the USD from Saturday, now just under 60.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 85.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 63.8, and down -10 bps from Saturday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$70,693 and up +1.1% from this time Saturday. But it is still down -10% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just on +/- 1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

​By Gareth VaughanThe Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to lift its cash rate 25 basis points this week means it's now 160 basis points higher than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's official cash rate highlighting differing levels of assertiveness between the two central banks, Imre Speizer, Head of New Zealand Strategy at Westpac, says.The RBS's cash rate is now at 3.85% with the RBNZ's OCR at 2.25%. Speaking in a new episode of the Of Interest podcast, Speizer says it has been 13 or 14 years since there has been such a gap, with the two economies tending "to cycle together most of the time.""It comes down to a different central bank approach. The RBA has deliberately maintained a fairly dampened approach to tackling either low inflation or high inflation. So when it has needed to hike or cut, it has done [so] in a very cautious and drawn out manner. And by doing so it hasn't had to flip around as much as the likes of some other countries," says Speizer."The central bank of New Zealand has been pretty much an activist in terms of tackling inflation. So when inflation was high in the most recent cycle it went fairly hard and hiked rates a lot to bring it back down again, and that then amongst other things did help to engineer a brief recession.""It paid a cost to do so but it got inflation under control. Now we're basically coming out of that era and [economic] growth is starting to pick up. And so the Reserve Bank [of NZ] is now faced with the task of thinking well at what point do we need to start thinking about pushing rates up to prevent inflation from running away?""I guess it just means the assertiveness of the relative central banks is probably explained [in] why we've ended up with such big differences between New Zealand interest rates and say the Australian interest rate. In time that will rectify itself and will get back to something that looks a bit more normal, I.E. Kiwi rates a little bit higher than Aussie rates. But I think it's going to be some way down the track," Speizer says.He says lots of people are asking how the cash rate differential between New Zealand and Australia might play out with mortgage rates."There shouldn't be any direct impact if the cause of Australian rate rises is unique to Australia. But much of the time, there is a common global factor at play, so New Zealand rates do follow Australian and US term rates," Speizer says answering a follow-up question to the podcast interview."Also, if the strong Australian economy is seen as eventually benefitting New Zealand's economy, New Zealand term rates could rationally follow Australian rates higher in dampened fashion."In the podcast audio he also speaks about the direction of swap rates and what it means for mortgage rates, what the yield curve's suggesting at the moment, the outlook for NZ government bonds, the impact the volatility of US President Donald Trump's administration has on the US dollar and financial markets more broadly, incoming Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, the impact of US government shutdowns on economic data availability, geopolitics and more.​

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the real economic markers in the world's largest economy painted a very lackluster picture today.US mortgage applications retreated again last week, for a second consecutive week. But these are still running well above year-ago levels. The refinance activity retreated but the big fall was for new purchase finance.Private businesses in the US added just +22,000 jobs in January according to the comprehensive ADP survey, (sample size of 26 mln) following a downwardly revised +37,000 rise in December and below forecasts for a +48,000 rise. Among these lackluster totals hiring in the health care sectors was a standout, adding +74,000 jobs. It was retrenchment in many others, including manufacturing.Remember the January non-farm payrolls report won't be released at its usual time on Saturday (NZT) due to the shutdown delays. It will now come next Thursday, February 12 (NZT).Meanwhile the ISM services sector PMI stayed in relatively good shape in January, although December was revised lower. New order growth slowed however, and price increases, pushed by tariff-taxes, rose.This is not translating into consumers buying cars at a higher rate. In fact, in January the annualised rate was only 14.9 mln vehicles, the slowest month since December 2022, and -4.1% lower than in January 2025.In China, and unlike the official January services PMI which was more negative, the private S&P Global version is more positive. The RatingDog China General Services PMI rose in January to a better expansion, from December's six-month low and better than market expectations. It's the strongest expansion in their services sector since October, driven by stronger growth in new orders, and a fresh increase in foreign sales.Meanwhile China said its fiscal revenue fell in 2025 for the first time since the pandemic. Sharp falls in non-tax takings outweighed a modest recovery in tax revenue.In Europe, the surging value of the euro helped push down their January CPI inflation level to 1.7%. Food, however, was up 2.7%.Australia released some living cost indexes yesterday, following the overall 3.8% December CPI. They say living costs for 'employees' rose just +2.2% in the year to January, but for 'aged pensioners' it was up +4.2%.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.27%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +71 bps.The price of gold will start today down -US$120 from yesterday at US$4860/oz. Silver is down -US$1 to US$85.50/oz. Some non-precious metals are lower too.American oil prices are up a bit less than +US$1 at just under US$63.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down -60 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just over 59.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 85.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -40 bps at just on 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 63.6, and down -50 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$72,550 and down another -3.3% from this time yesterday, and falling. The last time it was this low was in November 2024. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.6%.Please note that it is a public holiday in New Zealand on Friday, Waitangi Day. This podcast will not be published on Friday, but will return on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news gold and silver are currently experiencing the volatility we saw with bitcoin in 2024/25. Meanwhile, bitcoin is being dumped heavily today.Today starts with a series of unfortunate delays. The overnight dairy auction has concluded after an extended delay, but there is further delays in reporting the outcome. We will update this item when those results come through.And there are delays in some key US data due to the snap federal government shutdown. We expected to report the December JOLTs report today but it is in abeyance now. And the January non-farm payrolls report will get delayed as well for the same shutdown reason.But we did get US logistics data overnight, their LMI. This rose because first started building inventories in the way they did in January a year ago, but not excessively. Of note however is that inventory costs rose a sharp +8.4% this year, which will no doubt focus management minds.There was a secondary survey out overnight on economic optimism in the US and that was moderately positive. The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose to its highest since August and above expectations. But to be fair it is still below the 2025 average and -6% lower than its year-ago level. But at least it is off its November low.In Canada, their large aircraft manufacturing industry is holding its breath. The Trump FAA is withholding technical certification for new-built Canadian aircraft, waiting for the president to decide on the issue.There was an unusual and notable rise in consumer sentiment in Taiwan in January, to its highest level in nine months. It is back up to mid-2023 levels after a general decline that started in September 2024.And China warned Panama there would be "heavy prices" to pay after a court ruling in Panama annulled Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison's contract to operate two ports at the Panama Canal. This reaction will have relevance for the Darwin port issue, where a new 99 year lease owned by a Chinese firm is under threat of annulment too.In Germany, and despite solid demand holding up, investors there are expecting and getting higher risk premiums for their government 30 year bond. It yielded 3.55% today, its highest in 15 years. Its 10 year bond is almost at 2.90%, and also near its 2011 levels. Germany plans to raise more than €500 billion this year to fund infrastructure upgrades and for defence spending. But most other European countries are doing the same, and that is driving up yields.In Australia, and as expected, the RBA raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 3.85% and ending its shortish easing cycle. Most big banks there have already announced a full pass-through to their home loan and business lending rates. The RBNZ reviews its policy rate on February 18, 2026 but is not expected to make any changes to its 2.25% rate at that time.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.29%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today up +US$273 from yesterday at US$4980/oz. Silver is up +US$8 to US$US$86.50/oz. Some non-precious metals are bouncing back sharply too.American oil prices are up +50 USc at just over US$62.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just over US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps against the USD from yesterday, now at 60.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 86.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at just on 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 64.1, and up +30 bps from yesterday. And the Chinese yuan is at its strongest level against the US dollar since 2023.The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,990 and down -5.0% from this time yesterday, and falling. The last time it was this low was in mid November 2024. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news commodity prices are still falling after last week's crazy surge. The retreats are widespread and substantial. Oddly, it isn't having much effect on commodity-based currencies however.But first today, the January factory PMIs for the US were positive, based on good new order growth. The closely-watched local ISM version expanded for the first time in 12 months, preceded by 26 straight months of contraction. Prices rose sharply for both inputs and outputs, and some buying appears to be to get ahead of expected price increases due to ongoing tariff issues, they said.Meanwhile the S&P Global factory PMI came in with similar trends, finding rises in production when sales growth was subdued. These two surveys are positive, but we should remember that January is "reorder month" and with the tariff threats lingering, it might mean this distortion is playing an outsized role.In China, their PMI's trends were not too different from the US, even if they were in contrast to their official version. They reported an expansion in production at a faster pace amid higher new orders. Employment rose Output charges increased for the first time in 14 months.In Taiwan, their factory sector recovery gathered pace in January, but cost pressures intensified.In Singapore and Malaysia, they recorded a January uptick, but the expansions there are still modest in their factory sectors.India and the US announced an agreement to lower tariffs and lower the temperature in their trade disputes. Given that India's exports to the US were already rising even with the higher tariff's, this is likely to be a substantial boost for India.Back in the US, and under the radar, they have entered a new federal government shutdown, with layoffs. This one is expected to be short because a deal between Congress and the White House seems to be in effect. But it will delay this weekend's non-farm payrolls report announcement.In Australia, Cotality said low supply levels, first home buyer incentives and a resilient labour market are combining to keep house prices rising. They are up +9.4% nationally from a year ago. But there is wide variation. They said mounting affordability and debt headwinds are butting up against 'fragile sentiment'. This is especially true where the prices are highest, in Sydney and Melbourne, where prices rose only +6.4% and +5.4% in January from a year ago, the least of any major city. The median house price in Sydney is now AU$1.29 mln (NZ$1,5 mln). It is now also above AU$1 mln in Brisbane at AU$1.055 mln (NZ$1.22 mln).The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.27%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today down -US$183 from yesterday at US$4707/oz. Silver is down -US$6 to US$US$78.50/oz. Non-precious metals are falling hard too.American oil prices are down -US$3 at just underer US$62/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps against the USD from yesterday, now at 60.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -20 bps at 86.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 63.8, and down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$78,946 and recovering +2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just on +/- 3.0% with all the fall coming yesterday.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news commodity and financial markets delivered some rather spectacular gyrations over the weekend, forcing investors to review how they are going to deal with the 'certainty of uncertainty' enveloping global markets.But first this week, our local coverage will be dominated by Wednesday's Q4-2025 labour market report. If it brings a notable improvement from the expected no-change 5.3% jobless rate, then the recent high inflation rate (3.1%) will get more of the RBNZ's attention at its February 18 meeting.Also this week, the RBA is meeting tomorrow to review Australia's monetary policy settings. A +25 bps change is now expected taking this rate to 3.85%, a sharp adjustment in sentiment following the strong December CPI data (3.8%).Elsewhere, important labour market data will come from the US at the end of the week via their January non-farm payrolls report. Markets expect a modest +70,000 job gain there, slightly better than the disappointing December +50,000 rise. Before that, there will be their JOLTs report, the ADP jobs report, and the layoff data for January. Then we get the first February consumer sentiment report, and it is expected to stay near its historic lows.There will be many more PMIs reported this week. And the EU will release its CPI data update, the ECB will review its policy rate. India will too. As will England.In Japan, they will release business sentiment survey results.But the week has already started in China, with dour official PMI survey results released. Their factory sector slipped back into contraction indicating their December expansion was a rogue result. Their services PMI also reverted to contraction as well, and they will be very disappointed. Neither was expected to reverse in January. The non-official PMIs will be released later today.Also over the weekend, Taiwan said its economy expanded at more than a +12% rate in Q4-2025 in a spectacular release, and their best quarter ever. That means all of 2025 was up +8.6%, even better than the outstanding 2025 gain of +5.3%. No wonder Beijing covets the neighbouring island nation.In Japan, they reported that its retail sales unexpectedly fell in December, although it did revise up its November retail sales results.In South Korea, the pandemic recovery excepted, their exports rose at a record +34% year-on-year rate in January to a massive US$66 bln. This is largely as a result of booming tech exports to China and the US. And it sets up 2026 with a great start, after 2025 exports also hit all-time records.Indian bank loan growth is still rising very fast indeed, up more than +13% year on year in its January 9, 2025 data released over the weekendIn the US, Trump said he will appoint Kevin Warsh from the conservative Hoover Institute and member of the billionaire Este Lauder family, to replace Powell when Powell's term ends in May 2026. The choice seemed to trigger the precious metals selloff. Trump once thought of appointing Warsh in 2017 but pulled back on doubts he would be compliant. Since then Warsh has become more MAGA.US producer prices rose +3.0% in December from the same month a year ago, defying expectations they would fall to +2.7%. Core data was up +3.3%, the fastest rise since July.Meanwhile in Chicago, the region's PMI made a spectacular recovery, one quite unexpected. New orders rose in this survey, employment surged. It is in complete contrast to the prior 25 consecutive months of decline. (However it will be worth waiting a month to know if this isn't just a rogue survey, one they have every two years or so. The last such unusual surge in November 2023 wasn't sustained.)In Europe, Eurozone economic activity rose +1.5% in 2025, up +1.6% in the wider EU, up from +0.9% in 2024 and better than the European Commission's projection of +1.3%. Resilient household consumption, lower borrowing costs and easing inflation, and a surge in exports to the US, all contributed to the better result. Germany and Italy were laggards, France about average, and Spain expanded at double the overall average.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.24%, unchanged from this time Saturday, down -2 bps for the weekThe price of gold will start today little-changed from Saturday at US$4888/oz when the big crash happened. Silver is down to US$US$84.50/oz.American oil prices are up +50 USc at just over US$65/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$69/bbl. From a week ago these prices are up +US$3.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps against the USD from Saturday, now at 60.3 USc. That is a weekly appreciation of +100 bps. From the start of the month it is up +300 bps. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 86.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just over 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 63.9, and down -10 bps from Saturday, up +80 bps for the week, up +200 bps for the month, almost all because the USD devaluation in global markets.The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,404 and down a very sharp -6.8% from this time Saturday. That makes it down -18% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just on +/- 0.8% with all the fall coming Saturday.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

By Gareth VaughanA new all-of-government strategy to tackle organised crime aims to make New Zealand the hardest place in the world for organised criminal groups to do business and following the money is key to the fight, says the Chairman of the Ministerial Advisory Group on Transnational, Serious and Organised Crime.One of the Ministerial Advisory Group's recommendations is to broaden the legal definition of money laundering, with barrister Steve Symon, who chaired the Advisory Group, saying money is the key driver."The reason they operate in New Zealand is money. I'm not saying that we will cure the problem of organised crime globally, but we can make New Zealand the hardest place for organised crime to operate, such that they'll see other markets as more lucrative," Symon says in a new episode of interest.co.nz's Of Interest podcast."We're effectively saying 'organised crime don't operate here, go elsewhere to do that.' We have to make it as challenging as possible for organised crime to profit from it, to use money.""The money laundering regime is a key aspect of that. Obviously there has to be a way for organised crime to take the money that they get from crime and benefit from it. Transfer it, launder it... into a way that they can use it," says Symon."The challenges that we have in relation to the current money laundering regime [are] probably best demonstrated by the small number of money laundering cases that go through our courts. We know that the drug trade is driven by organised crime. And...theoretically, for every drug case you should have a money laundering case as well."Symon says fortunately most New Zealanders won't be aware of the problem of organised crime, but they will see the symptoms of it."The methamphetamine use, particularly in our rural communities, [which] is decimating some of our rural communities. The advent of the fraud that is spreading. One in 10 New Zealanders are the victim of fraud and that number is escalating.""And there'll be touch points that the public are not aware of, where they are interacting with people who are exploited migrants who have been exploited by organised crime," says Symon."We will see new and emerging threats through organised crime, such as a black market in tobacco which has been, escalating in New Zealand. And these things are growing and becoming more complex. What we're also seeing is organised crime working in more nefarious ways. So working on corrupting individuals, corrupting New Zealanders going about doing their work to try and maximise the return they can get from their crime.""Organised crime is working more and more like large commercial enterprises. So when you think of large companies and how they spend their energy on facilitating and maximising the return that they can get for their investors, it's the same logic you should apply to organised crime," says Symon.In the podcast audiohe also talks about the challenge of cash "the primary currency of organised crime" and the recommendation to stop cash payments in certain industries, why the Advisory Group recommends a dedicated Transnational, Serious and Organised Crime Minister, funding the fight against organised crime, why more is needed from Inland Revenue, working across government agencies, the role of the private sector, cryptocurrency, the need for international cooperation and more.Just before Christmas Associate Police Minister Casey Costello unveiled a new all-of-government strategy to tackle organised crime. Costello released this strategy document, and this action plan. Details on the Ministerial Advisory Group and all its reports can be found here.*You can find all episodes of the Of Interest podcast here.

US data mixed as risk aversion rises. Singapore & Sweden hold rates. EU sentiment rises, inflation expectations dip. Air travel & cargo buoyant.

Kia ora, Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news markets now expect an Australian rate rise next week. But first today, the US Fed held its policy rate unchanged at 3.5%. This is what markets expected from them, despite the Trump pressure to cut sharply. The vote was 10-2 with the dissenters working to curry favour with Trump to get the nod as the next Fed chairman. The FOMC indicated that rates at this level could hold for some time while household inflation stress remains elevated. Inflation with no growth (other than AI) is a hard position to extract yourself from. They also have their eye on the labour market, with some large layoff announcements in the past few days. Both UPS (-30,000) and Amazon (-16,000) have announced big cuts, less about seasonal changes, more about 'efficiency'. They aren't the only ones pulling back. American mortgage applications fell last week as mortgage interest rates rose. Refinance activity fell more than -16%, while new home purchase mortgages were little-changed. This may not be a trend change, rather just a breather, because the prior three weeks rose notably. However, this metric is in a clear yoyo pattern. Canada's central bank also held its policy rate at 2.25% in its overnight decision. New bully threats from the US are keeping their growth outlook quite uncertain but they still see inflation holding at about 2% (currently 2.4%), and they still see an economic expansion at about +1.5%. India's industrial production accelerated in December, up +7.9% from the same month a year ago to end its full year up +4.1% from 2024. Factory production was up +8.1%, with the weak sector being mining. The December expansion was its sharpest since October 2023. In Australia, inflation was reported rising 3.8%, far above the November 3.4% and also above the expected 3.6% level. After the strong December labour market data released earlier in the month, this will put heavy pressure on the RBA to act to prevent inflation impulses and inflation expectations from requiring even tougher medicine in the future. Growth hotspots Brisbane and Perth both reported even higher inflation rates. Even Sydney reported 3.7% December inflation. The RBNZ will be looking at this evolving situation with some alarm, given that we too have above-target inflation, even without the growth pressures. Separately, the Chinese ambassador to Australia has said that Beijing will step in if Australian moves to regain control of the Darwin port that was leased to Chinese interests in 2015 on a 99-year lease basis. He said China “has the obligation to take measures” to protect their rights over the port. That may include trade retaliation, and more Chinese navy circumnavigations including live-fire exercises in the Tasman. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.26%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$5289/oz, up a sharp +US$202 from yesterday and a new record high. Silver is up +US$7 to US$114/oz, also a record. Platinum has recovered and now at US$2645, but not back to Monday's spectacular record. We should also note that the aluminium price has risen sharply overnight - again. It is now back approaching its pandemic-frenzy levels. American oil prices are up another +US$1 at just under US$63/bbl, while the international Brent price is also higher, now just under US$68/bbl. These are four month highs. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday, now at 60.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 86.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at just on 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 63.8, and up +10 bps from yesterday, its highest since late September. The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,425 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been low at just under +/- 0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the US dollar fell for a fourth consecutive session today, sliding to its lowest level since February 2022. It's a -3.5% devaluation in just one week. Some think the US Administration is engineering the fall to bolster its export competitiveness as the US factory sector misfires, tariffs aren't working other than raising costs, and to put pressure on the Fed ahead of its meeting next week.First up today however there was another dairy Pulse auction earlier this morning and that brought some interesting signals. The WMP price came in almost identical to last week's full auction and has been holding at this higher level since the start of 2026 when it made that 7%-plus jump. The SMP price rose a strong +5.9% today from last week, and is now +9% higher than what is was at the end of 2025.. Positive signs, but somewhat undermined by the fast-falling USD.In the US, the weekly ADP employment update recorded a weekly gain of under +8000, continuing the slow easing that they have been recording since the end of November. January non-farm payrolls which will be released at the end of next week, is currently expected to show a very tame +40,000 jobs gain which will continue the weak run that started in May 2025.And that may be optimistic, The Conference Board's consumer sentiment survey for January reported that confidence collapsed to lowest point since 2014, to levels even lower than the pandemic depths. It is now back to levels as it rose from the GFC.But the latest factory survey, this one by the Richmond Fed in the mid-Atlantic states, showed little-change from its already negative levels. New order levels rose marginally however, but because that is on a dollar basis it might just be because the same survey shows high price increase activity, required by even higher cost increase levels.More positive was the January Dallas Fed services survey, which moved up into positive territory in January after four months of consecutive retreat.Today's US Treasury 5yr Note auction brought the same median yield rise from the prior equivalent event a month ago. Higher risk premiums are getting embeddedIn China, industrial profits rose +5.3% in December from the same month a year ago. They will be pleased with that because for the whole of calendar 2025 they were up merely +0.6% (and would have declined but for the December rise).In India, we can confirm the signing of their big trade deal with the EU, removing both tariff and non-tariff barriers.. The US isn't happy.In Europe, we should note that Swedish officials are looking at what it would take to ditch the krona in favour of the euro. An independent review has already pointed out that the benefits would greatly outweigh the costs. The Swedes last voted on this issue in 2003.In Australia, business sentiment as measured by the NAB survey, was stable and mildly positive in December. Business conditions however improved more strongly on better sales and margins.Later today, Australia will publish its December CPI result, and after the strong labour market for January, will be closely followed and could very well move financial markets. They had 3.4% inflation in November and this December result is expected to be 3.6%. This will be very influential on the RBA's deliberations at next Tuesday's cash rate target review.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.23%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$5087/oz, unchanged from yesterday and holding at its record high. Silver is down to US$107/oz. Platinum has fallen more sharply and now at US$2522, down -US$335/oz from yesterday.American oil prices are up +US$1 at just under US$62/bbl, while the international Brent price is softish, now just under US$67/bbl and up a bit more. This is all USD devaluation-driven.The Kiwi dollar is up +50 bps from yesterday, now at 60.2 USc as the greenback goes into another devaluation stage. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 86.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -20 bps at just on 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 63.7, and up +20 bps from yesterday, its highest since late September.The bitcoin price starts today at US$88,576 and up +1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news repricing for American risk is underway, evidenced by rising UST yields, a falling US dollar, and commodity price spikes.First up today, American durable goods orders rose in November by more than expected to be +10.5% higher than year ago levels, a gain that has impressed markets, and came as a complete surprise. Non-defense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, were up +4.3%, also a good gain.But there are a number of factors we should take into account when assessing this data. It is 'nominal' and not inflation adjusted and tariff-taxes will be a part of the increase. Second, we looked back at the ISM and S&P Global factory PMIs for November and they did not pick up this type of gain. The ISM one actually reported contraction, the S&P Global and unchanged expansion. And then there is the 'new management' at the US data agency that releases this data. All three factors mean we should wait a bit to see if this is an outlier result. Risks abound.Meanwhile, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index came in below trend in November, although not as negative as it was in October. This is the ninth below-trend reading in the past twelve months.It was a similar story for the Dallas Fed factory survey, which also recorded a pullback, for January, although not as steeply as it did in December. Output and new orders rose, but the overall index was held back by a sharp jump in prices paid for inputs. Only about half that was recovered by prices received even though that rose sharply too.There was a US Treasury bond auction today and while it was well supported, it did bring a notable rise in the yield achieved. The 2 year bond delivered a yield of 3.55% at todays event, up from 3.45% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. This is the largest shift in yields we have observed at these events in more than a year. The US's ballooning deficit can't really afford rising interest rates, but then again it couldn't afford the tax cuts for the rich either.Singapore's industrial production dipped rather sharply in December to end up +8.3% from the same month a year ago. But the December pullback was less than observers had expected.In addition to Auckland, and Australia, Monday was also a public holiday in India, Republic day. And the two top EU officials were in New Delhi to seal a key trade deal between the two economic powers. In fact, it has been called "the mother of all deals" and is set to be signed later today. Both sides are making major concessions to get it done and it is likely to boost trade in a globally significant way. The EU will get major access to India's car market. India will get the EU's preferential tariff MFN treatment.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.21%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$5087/oz, up +US$104 from yesterday and a new record again. Silver is up proportionately more, up +US$12/oz at US$115/oz and also a record high. Platinum has risen to US$2857/oz, up +US$116/oz.Tin prices are up +9.5% today, and copper is up +1.5%. Both build on recent surges to record highs. A falling greenback accentuates these rises, but all commodities are still priced in USD.American oil prices are holding at yesterday's at just under US$61/bbl, while the international Brent price is firmish, now just under US$65.50/bbl and down -50 USc.The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from yesterday, now at 59.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 86.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at just on 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 63.5, and up +40 bps from yesterday, its highest since late September.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,677 and down just -0.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news we need to keep an eye on the 'Sell America' trade, which until now has been more headlines that substance and mainly about China's divestment in US Treasuries. But the Greenland kerfuffle has triggered a serious rethink by many pension fund managers, and more are taking this action.But first, the week ahead will be a relatively quiet one locally on the data front, but we will get a big range of December banking sector data, allowing us to cap the 2025 year on a number of important metrics. In Australia, the key event will be Wednesday's CPI data where it is expected to rise to 3.6%, the final indicator before next week's RBA rate review.Globally, all eyes will be on the gold price and its expected push up through US$5000/oz which could come early in the week.And in the US, all eyes will be on the Fed and its January 29 meeting, amid increasingly contrasting takes by voting members on the appropriate rate path. But most things related to public policy are in turmoil in the US, and the Fed's position is just part of that. We will be watching for bond market reactions.Elsewhere, official interest rate decisions are expected in Canada, Brazil, and Sweden, and the Bank of Japan will publish meeting minutes.An don't forget it is a holiday today in the north of the North Island (Auckland Anniversary Day), and in Australia (Australia Day),In the first news up today, China released its December FDI data overnight and it was negative again. For all of 2025 foreign direct investment fell -9.5%, following a sharp -24.7% fall in 2024 and that makes it the third consecutive year of contraction. December alone recorded a good pickup from November but even with that it was -7% lower than the December 2024 month. But at least it didn't shrink as it did in November from October.China also release minimum wage rate data that showed 27 of the country's 31 provincial jurisdictions have increased monthly minimum wages over the past year, with half introducing double-digit rises.In an interview with state media Xinhua, the Chinese central bank governor indicated that cuts to their interest rates and reserve ratio requirements are on the cards in 2026.Taiwan said industrial production surged more than +21% in December from the same month a year ago, the strongest growth since May. For all of 2025 it was up +16.7%, so the latest activity is an acceleration. But their local retail sector is not showing the same exuberance, up just +0.9% in December from a year ago but down -0.2% for all of 2025. Consumers there are prioritising saving over spending, just like in the country to their west.Japanese inflation eased to 2.1% in December from 2.9% in November, the lowest since March 2022. Food inflation fell to a 13-month low of +5.1%, driven by the slowest rise in rice prices in 16 months.The Japanese January 'flash' PMIs were quite positive with private sector output expanding at their quickest rate for nearly a year-and-a-half to start 2026.The Japanese central bank reviewed its monetary policy and no change was made, held at 0.75% - because an election is imminent. But now inflation concerns seem to be easing too. But markets are on alert for official intervention to support the yen.In India, their 'flash' January PMIs rose across both sectors, maintaining the very high rates of economic expansion there.We are starting to get the early January PMI reports for many key economies. The US factory version was little-changed in a modest expansion and it was the same for their services sector. But both recorded slightly better new order flows. Both noted cost pressures from their tariff-taxes. But as you will note from below this expansion lags most of the other large global economies.The Conference Board's leading economic indicator tracking for the US isn't positive reading, with the latest update reporting further declines.In Canada, their retail sector reported good gains in November, up +3.1% from a year ago, but these may not have extended into December, according to their overnight update.In the EU, output continues to rise in January and business confidence strengthened. That raised their factory PMIs to expansion, but their services PMI's hesitated.In Australia this week, they posted stronger than expected labour market data. That has sharply changed financial market pricing. And in turn there has been a rush by banks, both a major (NAB) and some challengers, to hike their fixed home loan rates today. They get their December CPI result next week and it is widely expected to challenge the upper end of their policy tolerance. If it does, suddenly Australian floating mortgage rates are at risk of a rise on February 3, 2026. If they do hike then, the Aussie policy rate will be 3.85% (3.60% +25 bps). And that will put it 160 bps higher than the RBNZ current 2.25%. It has been 14 years since this difference was that large.In Australia, private sector output expanded at its fastest pace in five months in December according to the S&P Global 'flash' PMI report. Both the factory and services sector expansions picked up, the services sector more than the factory sector however. Faster new order growth, including for exports, was a noted feature.And we should probably note that China received its first shipment of iron ore from their giant African mine at Simandou, Guinea. This likely marks a shift in China's iron ore import focus, likely to Australia's detriment.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.24%, down -2 bps from this time Saturday. And here is something to keep an eye on, Europe's largest pension fund cut its holdings of US Treasury debt sharply in 2025, a trend that seems to be gathering steam, the 'sell America' trade, one started by Norway's sovereign wealth fund late last year.The price of gold will start today at US$4983/oz, up a minor +US$1 from Saturday bit still a new record again. US$5000 could come quickly now. Silver is up +US$2/oz at US$103/oz and also a record high. Platinum ihas eased marginally to US$2741/oz.American oil prices are holding at Saturday's at just on US$61/bbl, while the international Brent price is firmish, now just under US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from Saturday, still at about 59.4 USc. That makes it almost a -2c loss for the greenback for the week. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 86.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 63.1, and up +10 bps from Saturday, its highest since late September, and up +150 bps for the week.And we should probably note that the official Chinese yuan setting by the Peoples Bank of China slipped below 7 to the US dollar in Saturday's fixing, the first time it has done that since May 2023. Although to be fair, most currencies are rising against the USD, ours included.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,968 and down -2.0% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

​By Gareth VaughanGovernor Anna Breman has implied the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee will increase the Official Cash Rate (OCR) in the run-up to November's election if members believe this is what is required."We are statutory independent. We are an independent central bank, like you point out, and we will do what is best for the New Zealand economy and to reach our inflation target," Breman told interest.co.nz in a new episode of the Of Interest podcast.She was asked if the Reserve Bank believes increasing the OCR is necessary, she would be comfortable doing so in the run up to November's election.Breman was speaking on Friday, after the release of Statistics NZ's December quarter Consumers Price Index (CPI) showed annual inflation at 3.1%, above the Reserve Bank's 1% to 3% target range."We are carefully looking through all the data. It's clear that there are some items in there that typically are very volatile. They can change a lot between different quarters. But of course 3.1% is high and it means that inflation that's been hurting households for many years is still above where we want it to be, but the outlook is still favorable in terms of inflation going forward. So it's also important to stress that we will focus on getting inflation back in the target band and towards the midpoint of the target band," Breman said.The Reserve Bank reviews the OCR for the first time this year on February 18.In a note following the CPI release BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis said financial markets had almost fully priced in a first OCR increase for the Reserve Bank's September 2 Monetary Policy Statement. And BNZ's economists have brought forward their expectations for a first OCR hike to September 2 from February 2027."One thing that needs to be taken into consideration is the General Election on November 7. The Reserve Bank is operationally independent so it can broadly do what it wants when it wants, but central banks are not keen to become embroiled in election campaigns if it can be avoided," said Toplis."In our opinion, this means the 28 October Monetary Policy Review would be far from optimal for a first rate hike. Moreover, it's always easier to tell the full story with a complete Monetary Policy Statement when a hiking cycle, or cutting, begins."Breman said she doesn't comment directly on market pricing. The OCR is currently at 2.25%, having been reduced from 5.50% since July 2024.In the podcast audioBreman speaks further about inflation including the challenges facing households, whether she expects help from government with the inflation fight, limits to Reserve Bank monetary policy, her recent support of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the response from Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Finance Minister Nicola Willis, risks around the Fed becoming less independent when President Donald Trump appoints a new Chairman, what climate change means for the Reserve Bank, her thoughts on a potential central bank digital currency, and more.*You can find all episodes of the Of Interest podcast here.​

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the US dollar is being marked down as demand for precious metal hedges rises.But first in the US there were 260,000 initial jobless claims last week, down -71,000 from the prior week and a marginally smaller change that the -73,000 change seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 2.21 mln people on these benefits, marginally less than the 2.24 mln a year ago. Two years ago, pre-Trump, there were 1.75 mln people on these benefits.US real personal income rose +1.0% in November from the same month a year ago. On this inflation-adjusted basis it has been flat since April 2025. But real personal consumption expenditures rose +2.6%. On an inflation-adjusted basis this is the same pace of rise that started in April 2021. It has been driven recently by services and non-durable goods. While the PCE data is still within the Fed's inflation band, the income drag will be worrying policymakers. The spending rise can't be maintained.The latest regional Fed factory survey, this one from the Kansas City Fed, shows no improvement from its dour base. It is still negative.Malaysia's central bank reviewed its monetary policy and related policy rate overnight and made no change to its 2.75% level. They have a strong economic expansion underway, and inflation is low.Japan's exports rose +5.1% in December from the same month a year ago, the fourth monthly increase and reaching a record value. As good as that was, analysts had expected a rise of +6.1%. Imports climbed +5.3% on the same basis, the fastest pace in 11 months and much faster than November's +1.3% rise.The EU's consumer sentiment survey for January was marginally better (less worse) than for December - again. This continues the slow grinding improvement from its depths in September 2022 and halving that negative level. But it is still negative at double the negative pre-pandemic. Still it is on an improved trajectory and that is in sharp contrast to the US where the similar UofM survey is now deeply negative with a recent deterioration and half the level it was pre-pandemicIn Australia, their labour market performed well in December. Employment increased by +65,000 in the month to 14.65 mln, with full time employment up +54,800 and part-time employment up +10,400. Hours worked rose. As a consequence their jobless rate fell to 4.1%, well below the prior 4.3% and the expected 4.4%. This probably ends any chance of a rate cut early February and brings forward the chance of a rate hike in 2026. Everything now depends on next week's CPI outcome where there is upside risk to November's 3.4% CPI rate now.Staying in Australia, job ad portal Seek is saying their platform shows job ads dropped -1.2% in December from November, and are down -3.5% from the same month a year ago. Applications per job ad fell -0.3% in December, "demonstrating a slightly sharper year-end decline in candidate activity than usual".And Australian unicorn Airwallex is to be investigated by the money laundering regulator AUSTRAC. They suspect "serious non-compliance" by the global payments platform, specialising in moving money internationally for dodgy clients.And we should probably note that the Trump Administration has advanced its role in granting licenses to mine the seabed in international waters. It is currently mapping resources off Samoa, and it has granted its first license to mine in international water to a US miner. The US only recognises a 12 mile country claim, so vast areas are now open to grant permits for their firms to mine. There is potential trouble ahead on jurisdictional issues.Global container freight rates fell -10% last week from the prior week to be -43% below year-ago levels. Bulk cargo freight rates rose +16% in the past week to be double year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.25%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4909/oz, and up another +US$66 from yesterday and a new record again. Silver is up +US$2.50/oz at US$96/oz and also a record high.American oil prices are down -US$1 from yesterday at just on US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$64/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is firmer from yesterday, up +50 bps to 59 USc as the USD is devalued in financial markets. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 86.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +30 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 62.9, and up +40 bps from yesterday and its highest since late September.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,026 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.Join us later this morning when we will report the New Zealand Q4-2025 CPI result, which could set the scene for the RBNZ decisions in 2026, the next one on February 18, 2026. Markets expect a 3.0% CPI rate, right at the top end of the central bank's policy comfort level.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news it is all about the 'debasement trade" today - Trump debasing US public policy resulting in a rush to gold, a jump in US Treasury yields, and a fall in the greenback. Equities and cryptos are falling.In the US overnight, there was another good rise mortgage applications, largely on the back of a rush of refinance activity as 30 year mortgage rates eased.However December data for pending home sales took an unusually large dip from November to be -3.0% lower than year ago levels.In Canada, producer prices actually fell in December, unexpected because a small rise was anticipated. That puts them +4.9% higher than year ago levels, the slowest rise since August.In Indonesia, they reviewed their policy rate overnight, leaving it at 4.75% as expected.In Europe, the European Parliament has suspended the approval of a key US trade deal agreed in July in protest at Trump's demand to take over Greenland. Both Trump and some of his cabinet are at Davos, and in full arrogant insult mode.In Australia, the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index inched up 0.1% in December from November to +0.42%, following the no-change in the previous month. The recent uptick is led by commodities and an improved homebuilding outlook. But the December rise was less than expected. A year ago its was +0.25%, so nearly a doubling since that tame benchmark.We should perhaps also note that cocoa prices have fallen sharply today, back to US$4400/tonne and the same level as two years ago. You may recall they reached US$12,250/tonne in April 2024 at the height of its surge.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.28%, unchanged from this time yesterday. Wall Street is in its Wednesday session with the S&P500 recovering +0.3% but the earlier much larger recovery gains (over +1%) seem to be fading. The S&P500 has fallen a net -1.8% in the past two days, so far. It's the same for the Nasdaq which is now back with a small loss today, down -2.2% for the same two days. The price of gold will start today at US$4843/oz, and up another +US$93 from yesterday and a new record again. Silver is lower at US$93.50/oz and off its record high.American oil prices are up a bit more than +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$60.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is unchanged at just under US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is holding from yesterday, still at just under 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 86.4 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 62.5, and unchanged from yesterday and still its highest since early October.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,927 and down -2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%. And we perhaps should note that the $TRUMP memecoin has plunged more than -90% from its peak a year ago, burning its adherents bigtime.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news long term bond yields are on the move higher, notably in Japan and the US.First however, the overnight dairy auction delivered a modest gain, up +1.5% in USD terms, but up +0.4% in NZD terms as the US dollar is weakening. However, most of this rise is the same as recorded in last week's Pulse event. But it does cement a second consecutive rise in the full auction after nine consecutive declines. So +7.8% of rises after the -22.5% of falls. Also notable is the much less buyer interest from China, counterbalanced by stronger interest from most other regions.In the US, markets have returned after a chaotic weekend politically to a weak ADP weekly jobs report, recording just +8000 jobs gains and well within the margin of error. January is starting out tough in their labour market. But at least it wasn't a decline.The US Supreme Court issued three decisions overnight but did not decide the closely watched dispute over the legality of the Trump tariff-taxes. they gave no indication when they will. Also delayed is Trump's 'imminent decision' on his Fed boss nomination. Apparently all his candidates have issues.Also weak is the USD. It is now under 7 CNY to the USD and its lowest since 2023.In China, household borrowing is weak and household savings is strong, up +10% in 2025. That says a lot about the stress Chinese households are feeling going into 2026. Per capita bank deposits have now risen to over ¥118,000 (NZ$29,000). And we should probably note that Chinese smartphone shipments fell in 2025, the second year in a row this has occurred.In Taiwan they reported export orders in December exceeding US$76 bln, far and away a new record high and +43% higher than year ago levels. The Taiwan miracle continues. For all of 2025 these export orders rose +26%.In Malaysia, they reported good December exports too, up more than +10% from the same month a year ago to just over US$37 bln and maintaining a strong trade surplus.In Germany, producer price deflation picked up slightly to -2.5% in December from a year ago to cap a 2025 year where it averaged -1.2%.But overall German investor economic sentiment picked up notably in January, and that was also enough to propel overall EU investor sentiment into positive territory in this wide survey.It is also probably worth noting that the Microsoft boss said overnight (at the WEF) the AI bubble could falter unless adoption of the technology picks up.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.28%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday and now its highest since September. The UST 30 year bond is now at 4.90% and its highest in almost ten years. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up another sharp +7 bps at 2.35% and we make that its highest in 28 years. Its 40 year bond is now over 4.25% and its highest since our records began in 2007. The price of gold will start today at US$4750/oz, and up another +US$78 from yesterday and a new record. Silver is is actually marginally lower at US$94/oz and off its record high.American oil prices are up a bit more than +50 USc from yesterday at just over US$60/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up another +50 bps from yesterday, now at just under 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 86.7 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 62.5, and up +50 bps from yesterday and its highest since early October.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,708 and down -3.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news political risks have moved higher overnight, but by less than you might have expected given the pressures.First we should note that today is Martin Luther King Day in the US, celebrating a man of peace, a Federal holiday so financial markets are closed. But no one missed the irony of the day given the US President telling the Norwegian Prime Minister he is no longer feels committed to peace.The fallout has been a rise in long term interest rates (a rise in the risk premium), and a fall in the US dollar. Equities slipped it in non-US trading.In Canada, their December inflation rate rose slightly to 2.4% from 2.2% in November, with the latest month rises relatively quickly. But there are base issues here with the ending of some GST relief measures. However, excluding petrol, their CPI rose 3.0% in December, following a 2.6% increase in November.The Bank of Canada released two important sentiment surveys overnight. Results of the Q402025 survey of consumers show that concerns over high prices and economic uncertainty related to the trade conflict with the US continue to have a negative impact. And after a weak year, businesses expect domestic sales growth ito improve slightly. Export sales are expected to be modest. Most businesses plan to maintain or decrease current staffing levels.In Japan, they have called a snap election for February 8. A key issue will be GST relief. But financial markets are concerned that will make their fiscal imbalances worse.In China, the property sector is acting like a curse on their economy. They reported that house prices fell by -2.7% in December from a year ago. That was a -1.7% fall for new-builds and a massive -7.0% fall for resales. The overall results is the 30th consecutive month of price decreases and their fastest pace since July. There are no capital gains in Chinese housing, anywhere.That is crimping consumer attitudes is a significant way. China's retail sales rose just +0.9% year-on-year in December according to official data, slowing from a +1.3% increase and missing market expectations of a +1.2% gain. This is their weakest growth since December 2022.But China also said its industrial production was +5.2% higher than a year ago, and rising. Coal output hit a new record high. However, China's electricity production was only +0.1% higher in December from the same month a year ago. It is hard to believe their industrial production data if this was the case.All this data then results in a Q4-2025 4.5% rise in GDP, according to their official report, marginally better than the expected +4.4%. Booming exports squares the circle. So they are claiming a neat +5% 2025 annual growth, exactly as the Party had said at the start of the year.Probably of more importance, China also released updated demographic data for 2025. The said 7.9 million babies were born in the year, down from 9.5 million in 2024. The number of people who died in 2025, 11.3 million, continued to climb. It is being widely accepted now that these trends cannot be reversed, and will lead to profound population changes.In the EU they also released December CPI results for December. Their annual inflation was 2.3% in December, down from 2.4% in November. A year earlier, the rate was 2.7%. Germany, Italy and France had lower rates, Spain and most of Eastern Europe had higher rates, some a lot higher.Globally, the IMF raised its global growth forecast to 3.3% from 3.1% this year, but warned that major risks are building. The upgrade reflects resilient activity, strong labour markets and heavy investment in new technologies, especially artificial intelligence. However, they cautioned that these same forces could become sources of instability. Rapid AI-driven investment, particularly in North America and Asia, is supporting growth and equity markets, but if productivity gains fail to materialise, it could trigger sharp market corrections and weaken household wealth. New Zealand gets no mention or coverage in this report. Australian growth is forecast to be +2.1% this year and +2.2% in 2027. They noted Australia's inflation-control challenge. India is the star, but strong results are also expected from Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. China's 5.0% growth in 2025 is expected to dip 4.5% in 2026, 4.0% in 2027.Australia's Monthly Inflation Gauge, as surveyed by the Melbourne Institute, surged +1.0% in December from November, the fastest pace since December 2023 and a sharp pickup from the prior two months. That puts it +3.5% ahead of year-ago levels. The recent surge may well get the RBAs attention. Don't forget the RBA next reviews ints monetary policy two weeks from today on February 3. Next Thursday's labour market data, and the following Wednesday's December CPI data will be crucial decision aspects.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.27%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday and its highest since September.The price of gold will start today at US$4672/oz, and up +US$76 from yesterday and a new record. Silver is has pushed up to US$94.50/oz and also a new record high.American oil prices are essentially unchanged from yesterday at just under US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is still at US$64/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday, now at just over 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 86.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +20 bps at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 62, and up +30 bps from yesterday and its highest so far this year.The bitcoin price starts today at US$93,206 and down -2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the world is looking for even more workarounds to avoid having to deal with a Trump-America.First however, this week is going to be a busy one locally with important data releases on December retail sales (another less-than-inflation tiny rise is expected), and the Q4 CPI data (expected to hold at 3.0%). But a higher-than-expected result will likely bring outsized financial market reactions. There will also be another full dairy auction on Wednesday.In Australia, it will all about their December jobs data, and a good bounce-back from the unexpectedly weak November result is being looked for.Globally, the most interest will be on the big data dump from China this week. Their Q4-2025 GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.4% dipping their full year expansion to 4.9%. House price, retail sales, and industrial production data is also due, and they are all expected to be tame. Their central bank will review its Loan Prime Rates, but no change is expected from their already record low levels.In Japan, their central bank will be reviewing their policy settings, although no change is anticipated this time. However there is intense interest about possible future rate signals.Central banks in Indonesia and Malaysia are scheduled to announce monetary policy decisions as well.In the US, financial markets will be closed tomorrow for MLK Day. But then they will release key data on inflation, the PCE version, as well and the second Q4-2025 GDP update. But most interest will be on a flood of Q4-2025 corporate earnings reports, dominated by their big industrials.Over the weekend there were important data releases from the US too. Industrial production rose marginally in December from November to be +2.0% higher than year ago levels.The January NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index retreated in January from December and back to October levels and -21% lower than year ago levels. Builder sentiment deteriorated across all components of the index.The New York Fed's regional services sector tracking reports yet another sharp contraction in their region in January, although not as sharp as in December.US data is often confusing, telling different stories. Enough so all sides can claim 'victory'. But some overarching measures paint a tougher story. Inflation feels like stagflation to most consumers. And that is confirmed by the latest data on the share of economic activity flowing to workers. It is now at its lowest level ever, since this series began 80 years ago. It is a telling data series, one that has dived fast recently.Across the border, Canadian housing starts turned in another strong result in December, up by +11% from November, to the highest rate in five months. That caps a good full year, up +5.6% in 2025 from 2024.The Canadian prime minister has been in China and has negotiated a truce with Beijing in their tariff tussle. The Chinese will now import large volumes of Canadian crops in return for up to a 49,000 car concession for Chinese EVs. Those will displace US-sourced EVs. The Canadian farm lobby is happy, their car-manufacturing lobby isn't.China continues to run down its holdings of US Treasury investments with them falling -11.2% in November from a year ago. Their holdings of US paper drops them to third place behind Japan and the UK.Malaysia's economic activity continues to impress. They recorded Q4-2025 GDP growth of +5.7% with a strong factory sector supported by strong internal demand.Singapore's (non-oil) exports rose +6.1% in December from a year earlier, a moderated pace of growth from November. (Their refined oil exports grew at more than twice that pace.) This means that Singapore's non-oil full-year 2025 exports came in +4.8% above their equivalent 2024 level.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.23%, unchanged from this time Saturday and its highest since September. The price of gold will start today at US$4596/oz, and up +US$15 from Saturday. Silver is now just under US$90/oz.American oil prices are down -50 USc from Saturday at just under US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at US$64/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from Saturday, now at just over 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are also little-changed at 86.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 61.7, and up +10 bps from Saturday, up +20 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$95,130 and up +0.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very low at just on +/- 0.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news of plenty of gritty data, but none of it really amounting to anything significant.Actual US initial jobless claims rose +32,000 last week to 331,000. But that was a lesser rise than seasonal factors would suggest so they are taking that as a 'win'. There are now 2.31 mln people on these benefits, up from 2.27 mln this time last year and that is a post-pandemic high. (Financial markets prefer the seasonally-adjusted data, even if that doesn't actually reflect the impact on real people.)The New York Fed's Empire State factory survey rose in January on a modest rise in new orders, putting behind it the November dip. It was a very similar story for the Philly Fed factory survey which rose in January for the first time in four months.The January update to the Fed Beige Book saw overall economic activity increasing at a slight to modest pace in eight of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, with three Districts reporting no change and one reporting a modest decline. This marks an improvement over the last three report cycles where a majority of Districts reported little change. Employment was little-changed. But cost pressures due to tariffs were a consistent theme almost everywhere.In the US rural economy, the rejection of US farm goods internationally is causing exceptionally tough times. Banks are refusing to lend because borrower prospects are so poor. It's an existential crisis for many. Far from the 'great again' promise, it is shaping up to be a rural disaster.Indian exports rose in December, but the gain was marginal. But trade with the US is little affected with exports to the US down just -1% since Trump's swingeing tariffs on India. For the full year, India had a trade deficit of -US$305 bln, a notable rise from 2024. India is no China trade behemoth - yet.Chinese banks extended ¥910 bln in new loans in December, sharply higher than the unusually low ¥390 bln in November. A year ago, the December level was ¥990 bln but at least this year it was above market expectations of ¥800 bln. New bank lending in China has been at unusually low levels for more than six months now. To encourage more, the central bank has lowered interest rates on targeted rural and SME lending. It also unveiled a ¥1 tln (NZ$250 bln) relending facility for private enterprises.The inability of some Australian state governments to repair their balance sheets after the pandemic free-spending is worrying at least one credit rating agency. S&P is warning NSW and Queensland in particular that they are now at greater risk of a downgrade from their AA+ rating. Heavy infrastructure spending and rising entitlement claims are hurting, as well as the political reluctance to raise taxes.And staying in Australia, their consumer inflation expectations came in at 4.6% in January, little changed from the 4.7% in December. Households still see elevated price pressures and has been at this general level for more than eight months. (Official November CPI was 3.4% and the December update comes on January 28, 2026.)Global container freight rates slipped -4% last week, ending a string of five consecutive rises. Most of that was driven by retreats in the China-US trade. This index is now -39% lower than year-ago levels. The bulk cargo rates fell sharply this week, down -13% to be +44% higher than year ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.16%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4603/oz, and down -US$10 from yesterday. Silver is still at US$91.50/oz, up +US$4.50/oz.American oil prices are sharply lower from yesterday at just under US$59/bbl and down -US$2.50, while the international Brent price is now at US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down a bit less than -10 bps from yesterday, now at just over 57.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 85.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 61.5, and down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$96,711 and down -0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news it is now clear that China has been the big winner in Trump's trade war. Geopolitical risks are front of mind in financial markets today.But first in the US, eyes were on a possible decision on the Trump tariff-taxes by the US Supreme Court today. But it did not come. Trump himself has been exerting maximum pressure on the justices, most of who he appointed. His problem is that he appointed strict legal constructionists and they were very unfriendly to his position during the argument stage. However, he expects 'loyalty' over "the law" and with the pressure he may get it. Today's deferral of a decision is a 'win' for him.US mortgage applications leaped +28% last week from the prior week, sharply rebounding from three consecutive periods of declines. The trigger seems to be a fall in benchmark home loan rates, although to be fair they only shifted from 6.25% to 6.18%. But that seems to have been enough to have motivated borrowers.American producer prices were up +3.0% in November from a year ago with core PPI up +3.5%. These changes are very little different to what was recorded for them one year ago.US retail sales were up +1.9% in November from a year ago (from US$723 bln in November 2024 to US$737 bln in this latest data). But for some reason the official stats agency is claiming it is up +3.3%. Hard to fathom - their 'seasonal adjustment' seems to have gone wonky.Meanwhile, American existing home sales recovered in December, and that left them +1.4% higher than year-ago levels. Their high levels of unsold inventory is starting to clear now.Across the Pacific, China's exports rose by +6.6% in December from a year ago to a record US$358 bln and much better than the expected +3% rise. These were up +5.9% in November and the December gain was the strongest growth since September, driven by a surge in exports to non-US markets. That surge capped their year with a trade surplus of much more than expected, a massive +US$1.19 tln. Clearly US tariffs haven't hurt China, although Americans are paying these taxes.China's vehicle sales grew +9.4% in 2025 from 2024 to a record high of 34.4 mln units with new energy vehicle (NEV) sales surging 28%. Although this was a faster pace of overall expansion, their December monthly sales actually fell -7.2% from 2024 levels. In fact, this industry is looking at 2026 with trepidation. The 2025 records may be the high water mark.In Japan, machine tool orders rose +10.6% in December their best level since the pandemic, and to levels they had back in the heady pre-pandemic levels. Strong foreign demand is a featureIn South Korea, some surprisingly negative jobs data was released yesterday. Their jobless rate jumped to 4.1% in December from 2.7% in November to its highest level in nearly five years - in fact back to pre-pandemic levels. The number of unemployed people rose to 1.22 mln, up +103,000 or up +9.2% year-on-year. It is such an unusual and unexpected result, it may be a rogue survey.In an updated review, the World Bank says global growth will come in at +2.7% in 2026, up marginally from +2.6% in its June forecast. It predicts US GDP growth will reach +2.2% in 2026, compared with +2.1% in 2025. For China, they see +4.9% and +4.4% for the same two years. For Japan it is +1.3% and 0.8%. For the EU, +1.4% and +0.9%. For India it is +7.2% and +6.5%. Neither Australia nor New Zealand feature in these reviews.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.14%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$4613/oz, and up +US$3 from yesterday, essentially holding Tuesday's big run-up on the geopolitical risks. Silver is still rising quickly, now almost US$91.50/oz, up +US$4.50/oz. Copper has hit a new record high.American oil prices are little-changed from yesterday at just over US$61.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up a bit less than +10 bps from yesterday, now at just under 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 86.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 61.6, and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$97,434 and up +4.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate, also at just on +/- 2.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the Powell resistance to Trump has garnered unexpectedly wide support, nationally and internationally, reinvigorating "central bank independence" positions. It also has many Trump supporters worried, if the 'right-wing press' is any indication.First up today, the overnight Pulse dairy auction of milk powders extended last week's full auction gains for both SMP and WMP. And they were good gains, with SMP +2.1% higher than a week ago, and WMP +1.2% higher on the same basis.In the US, the December CPI data released overnight recorded no-change from their November levels, at 2.7% or 2.6% on a 'core' basis. Both are still above the US Fed target. Food prices are up +3.1% and rents up +3.2% within this survey.The ADP weekly jobs data shows a similar +11,000 jobs gain last week, a rate that would confirm January's net hiring as slower than the slow December.US new home sales held at the higher 737,000 annual rate in October, a good result in the circumstances, but now quite dated data.This data will get more 'interesting' in 2026 with news that more migrants left the US than entered. While the net outflow wasn't large (for the US) at possibly about -300,000, the expectation is that it will be similar in 2026. This is the first time in 50 years they have shed people. It has certainly lost its 'welcoming' reputation - for both potential migrants, and for travelers.We got more recent sentiment surveys overnight, The RCM/TIPP survey was more downbeat in January than December and more so than expected - although to be fair the shifts weren't large - they just went the 'wrong' way.But the NFIB survey was little-changed - negative yes (below 100 still), but marginally less so.In Japan, their official "economy watchers survey" was also little-changed, although the forward looking section became marginally more optimistic.Meanwhile, bank lending in Japan rose 4.4% in December from a year ago. That growth was well above what was anticipated. If you ignore than pandemic distortion, that was at least a 25 year high, and probably very much longer.And Japan is on watch, with many expecting Prime Minister Takaichi to call a snap election very soon to bolster her conservative clout in the Diet. That saw the yen tumble and equities soar yesterday. Benchmark bond yields rise sharply too.In India, they released their December vehicle sales data overnight, reporting a very strong +20.6% gain from the same month a year ago, capping a year of +5.0% growth. Apparently their GST rate reduction for other products improved the overall affordability situation for many buyers.In Australia, consumer sentiment as measured in the Westpac survey has shifted lower and is more pessimistic in January. While confidence is still well above the extreme lows recorded during the protracted ‘cost of living' crisis in 2022–2024, consumers are becoming more concerned about what 2026 may bring for family finances and the wider economy. The main catalyst continues to be a sharp turn in interest rate expectations. Nearly two thirds of consumers with a view now expect mortgage rates to move higher over the next 12 months, more than double the level back in September.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.17%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +64 bps.The price of gold will start today at US$4610/oz, and down -US$7 from yesterday, essentially holding yesterday's big run-up on the risks from the unsettled US Fed. Silver is still rising, now almost US$87/oz.American oil prices are up US$2.50 from yesterday at just under US$61.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is still at just under US$65.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday, now at just over 57.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 86 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 61.6, and down -20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$93,492 and up +1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest, also at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news of gold and other commodity prices have pushed up into record territories again as geopolitical risks rise. (Crypto's are notable by their impotence in the background, irrelevant in this environment.)Perhaps one reason is in the US, where the President has used his weaponised Justice Department to pressure the Federal Reserve to bow to his will. The clearly bogus criminal charges are being resisted by chairman Powell. The unseemly crisis could aggravate risk premiums worldwide. So far interest rates have remained stable (you can be sure that bond markets will be watching intensely), but the USD is noticeably weaker.It has not been in the limelight recently, but we should note that US grain farmers are facing tough trading, with them being shut out from the China trade for soybean and corn. Trump seem to have thrown them under the bus.In India, consumer price inflation rose to 1.3% in December from 0.7% in November but below the market consensus of 1.5%. Despite the rise, this rate remains well below the Reserve Bank of India's tolerance limit of 2%-6%. Prices fell less for food (down -2.7%), which represent nearly half of the consumer basket.In Australia, household spending rose strongly in November, up +1.0% from October, up +6.3% from November a year ago. This result was much better than expected.And Australia said it will y and stockpile key rare-earth minerals from domestic producers to strengthen defence and technology supply chains and reduce reliance on China. They are initially focusing on antimony and gallium under a new A$1.2 bln program.The UST 10yr yield is now just over 4.18%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday. Wall Street has opened its week with the S&P500 very little-changed, up +0.1%. We should perhaps note that serial underperformer Rakon has received another takeover bid from a previous suitor, this one less than the last, and the frustrated shareholders look like they will finally accept. They will put the mismanagement misery behind them, it seems. They will be selling for $1.55/share. These shares peaked at $5.60 back in the day, $2.08 in 2022. Today they are $1.36, so the market isn't yet pricing in a full chance of the takeover.At the other end of the scale we should also note that Alphabet (Google) briefly hit US$4 ​trln in market valuation earlier today, the second company to do that after Nvidia, as they sharpened their AI gains, both with impressive integrated solutions, and a recent deal with Apple (who was pushed into third place on the valuation table).The price of gold will start today at US$4617/oz, and up +US$108 from yesterday on the risks from the unsettled US Fed. Silver is now up at over US$80.50/oz.American oil prices are unchanged from yesterday at just on US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is still at just under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday, now at just under 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 85.8 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps as well at just under 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 61.7, and up +30 bps from yesterday.In offshore trading the Chinese yuan (CNH) has strengthened well past the 4:USD level, and rising.The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,071 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, also at just on +/- 1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news of plenty of trade and economic action, some good, some not so.But first, some official data will start to be released locally this week, with November building permits and employment indicators, both for November, and the monthly December "selected price increases" covering mainly food and rent. We get the latest update to the NZIER business confidence survey this week too.In Australia, they will also release November building permit data, job vacancy data and household spending data, all for November too. The Westpac consumer sentiment survey will come as well, along with inflation expectation survey results.China's trade data for December will come out this week, and we expect the 2025 surplus to exceed US$1 tln. They will also release December new yuan lending data, expected to be better than November.From Japan we will get machine tool order data. In India, it will be about inflation data.In the US, the early Q4-2025 earnings reports will come from their big banks. Retail sales data is also due. But most eyes will be on the US December CPI result which is expected to be unchanged at 2.7%, although it is from an agency where the President inserted a lackey to keep an eye on their data.That same agency released their December US non-farm payrolls report over the weekend and it was something of a damp squib, but markets seemed to like it. The US economy added just +50,000 payroll jobs in December, less than a downwardly revised +56,000 in November and below forecasts of +60,000. These are the seasonally adjusted numbers. The raw data shows payrolls falling -192,000 and quite different to the equivalent small rise in December 2024. The broader population survey has overall employment falling -335,000 in December (double the 2024 change).The US unemployment rate ended the year at 4.4%, a tick less than November's 4.5% but well above December 2024's 4.1% (and December 2023's 3.8%). Average weekly earnings rose +3.8% from a year ago, keeping pace with inflation.Most analysts now see almost no chance of a rate cut at the Fed's January 29, 2026 meeting. Trump's inserted Miran remains an almost lone voice.US consumer debt trends are showing similar signs of stress and are looking topped-out. Total debt rose by only +US$4.2 bln in November and well below market expectations of a modest +$10 bln rise. It is equivalent to a +1% annual rise. Revolving debt (credit cards, etc.) fell at an annual rate of -1.9% while non-revolving debt, which includes car and student loans, went up +2.0%.So the latest update of a key consumer sentiment survey (this one from the University of Michigan) remained very low but little-changed in January from December and -25% lower than year-ago levels, -17% lower than two years ago.And we should note that markets are now expecting the US Supreme Court to rule on its tariff case possibly on Thursday.In Canada, employment was little-changed in December, up a minor +8200. But full-time employment grew +50,100 while part-time jobs shrank -42,000. It will be a rebalancing they will welcome. Their employed workforce is 21.1 mln, up +1.1% from a year ago. Analysts see much less of a chance of interest rate hikes in 2026 after this labour market result.In Japan, household spending was expected to bounce back in November after the weak October result. It did, but by very much more than expected. That was enough to take it up +2.9% from a year ago and very much better than the market expectations for a -0.9% decline. It was the steepest rise since May, supported by higher winter-related purchases and easing inflation pressures on some essential goods.Chinese CPI inflation is staying very low even if it did rise slightly in December. It came in +0.8% higher than year ago levels, marginally higher than in November. Beef prices were up +6.9% however from a year ago, sheep meat prices up +4.4% on the same basis. Milk prices (now bundled into "dairy products") were down -1.8% on that annual basis. All these food price rises were a key reason for the overall CPI rise.Taiwanese exports were up +43% in December from a year ago, rising to the second-highest monthly level on record. The pace slowed from an unusual +56% burst in November. It says a lot about expectations in Taiwan that analysts were expecting a +46% rise.Indian bank lending rose +14.5% in December from a year ago, the most in two years.In Europe, retail sales rose at a + 2.3% year-on-year volume rate in November, up from a revised +1.9% in October and well above market expectations of just +1.6%. The return of rising consumer spending will be welcomed in the bloc. This impulse is broadly back to what they had in the 2017-2019 period.We should note as well that the EU, after overcoming deep dissension among its members (especially by France), gave the green light to a sweeping free trade deal with four South American countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay) to create one of the largest free-trade zones in the world, connecting markets with more than 700 million people. The deal probably got over the line because of reaction to Trump's isolationist policies. It is interesting that this deal includes Argentina, which the US is propping up financially.The UST 10yr yield is now just over 4.17%, down -1 bp from this time Saturday, down -2 bps from a week ago. The price of gold will start today at US$4508/oz, and up +US$8 from Saturday, up +US$195/oz from a week ago. Silver is now up at US$80/oz. Aluminium is on the move up as well at US$3148/tonne and apart from the pandemic distortion, that is a new record high.American oil prices are down -50 USc from Saturday at just over US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is still at just under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday, now at just under 57.3 USc.  Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 85.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed as well at just under 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 61.4, and unchanged from Saturday, down -30 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$90,953 and down -0.5% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very low at just on +/- 0.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news global trade is rising and quite impressively, but the US is being shunned (or shunning itself).But first, US initial jobless claims rose more than +29,000 last week, marginally more than level seasonal factors would have accounted for. But there are now just under 2.2 mln people on these benefits and quite a bit higher than a year ago. Modest hiring and rising firings are driving these trends.Although the December month layoff data was unusually low, it does cap the full year layoff level at just over 2 mln and the most since the pandemic, and prior to that, the most since the GFC.Analysts are expecting tomorrow's release of December non-farm payrolls to rise just +60,000, similar to the low November level.In their December survey, the New York Fed reports it showed US labour market expectations worsened (almost one in seven people expect to lose their jobs in 2026) and short term; inflation expectations tick up to 3.4% but were unchanged over the longer terms.US exports rose and imports fell in the October data released overnight. The US trade deficit narrowed sharply to -US$29.4 bln in the month, the smallest gap since June 2009. Exports rose 2.6% or +US$7.2 bln to a record $302 bln. Imports declined -3.2% to a 21-month low of $331 bln. But this is really a story about gold flows more than tariff effects. Precious metal exports rose US$10.2 bln in the month and without those, exports would have fallen. Imports of gold fell -US$1.4 bls. Their largest monthly gaps were recorded with Mexico (-US$18 bln), Taiwan (-US$16 bln), Vietnam (-US$15 bln) and China (-US$14 bln). The trade gap with the EU narrowed sharply to -US$6.3 bln.Canada also reported trade data overnight. In October, Canada's merchandise imports increased +3.4%, while exports were up +2.1%. As a result, Canada's merchandise trade balance went from a small surplus of +C$243 mln in September to a deficit of -C$583 mln in October. Basically they remain in balance on this measure. But the transition away from trade with the US is sharp. Again, these flows have a large gold component too.In China, private analysts shows that their property market slump deepened in 2025, with new-home sales shrinking -9% to levels not seen before 2010 and falling by roughly half from their 2021 peak. Total sales value fell by nearly -13% according to this respected analysts.Japanese consumer sentiment, which has been improving since April, hesitated in December at just below the November level. Another improvement was expected, although the difference is small.It was a very similar story in the EU, with a December hesitation after a nine month string of improvements.Meanwhile, the survey for the ECB on consumer inflation expectations shows them unchanged in November at 2.8%.On the industrial front however, producer prices fell -1.7% in November from a year ago, more than the -0.5% in October, but less of a deterioration than the -1.9% expected. They actually rose slightly from the prior month and ny a bit more than anticipated.German factory orders rose sharply in November and ny much more than expected, up +5.6% from October, up +10.5% from the same month a year ago.In Australia, the trade surplus narrowed in November, as major commodity exports fell, and capital goods imports signalled a possibility of softer business investment in the December quarter.Globally, air passenger travel rose +5.7% in November from a year ago. international travel was up +7.7%. But its was all driven by the +7.8% rise from the Asia/Pacific region.Meanwhile air cargo traffic rose a similar +5.5% in November, also driven by the +11.1% rise in international cargoes in the Asia/Pacific region. North American flows declined.Global shipping container freight rates rose +16% last week from the prior week to be now -35% lower than year-ago levels. Outbound rates from China, to both the US and EU, rose sharply. Bulk cargo rates fell -6% last week, and are now +25% higher than a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is now just under 4.18%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$4460/oz, and up +US$2 from yesterday. Silver is down -US$2 to US$76/oz.American oil prices are up +US$1 from yesterday at just over US$57/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$61.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday, now at just under 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 85.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 61.5, and down -30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$90,887 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news the fall of the USD is driving some renewed realignments.To start we should note that gold has surpassed US Treasuries as the world's largest reserve asset globally for the first time in 30 years driven primarily by sharply rising prices, and some aggressive buying by some (mainly autocrat) central banks.Elsewhere in the real economy, the private US ADP employment report for December rose by +41,000 jobs following a revised -29,000 retreat in November. The December result was slightly less than forecasts of a +47,000 gain. This huge sample has been in a yo-yo pattern since mid-2025 and over that six month period they have reported a net gain of +129,000 - but almost all that gain was in August. We get the December non-farm payrolls report on Saturday, and it is expected to show a gain of +60,000.US job opening shrank in November. They fell by -303,000 to 7.146 mln in the month, the lowest since September 2024 and well below market expectations of a good gain.The ISM Services PMI rose for a third consecutive month in December, well above what was expected due to more positive holiday season trading. It was their best services sector PMI since October 2024, and broad-based. This was quite a different view to yesterday's S&P Global services PMI which told the inverse story.Meanwhile the US released catch-up factory order data, delayed by their shutdown, and a desire to make bad data seem less relevant. This report for October revealed orders fell +1.3% from September, to be just +1.6% higher than a year ago, far less than current price inflation. A driver of this pullback has been lower aircraft orders.Meanwhile, the NY Fed's global supply chain pressure index jumped rather more than expected in December, a clear signal that American importers are feeling rising stress - although nothing like its pandemic stress.In Canada, their widely-watched Ivey PMI turned back to an expansion in December, and they reported lower cost pressures, even if they remain elevated.In China, their central bank said it will cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in 2026 to keep liquidity up with a loose monetary policy.Meanwhile their foreign exchange agency explicitly committed to “effectively guaranteeing” fx access for all market players, a move to reassure businesses of currency liquidity amid the global pressures.And China's FX reserves rose to US$3.358 tln in December, a +4.9% or +US$160 bln change from a year ago, boosted in part by a falling USD. But next week, China will announce a +US$1 tln trade surplus in the same period, so it does make you wonder where the difference has gone. Clearly there are large capital outflows. China's gold reserves rose more than +55% in 2025, largely due to the rise in price. But they also added volume from local mining.Another consequence of this rise in reserves and the swelling trade surplus, is that the yuan is appreciating, especially against the USD (but not significantly against the AUD or NZD). However the appreciation against the USD is crucial because most of the world's trade in conducted or priced in USD.Taiwan said its CPI rose +1.3% in December from a year ago, and its PPI fell -2.6% on the same basis.In Europe, they said their CPI was up +2.0% in the euro area in December, a slight dip from November. So it is at the ECB target now. The range was from +0.7% in France to over +3.0% in front-line eastern countries. Germany was +2.0%, Spain +3.0% and Italy +1.2%.Australia's CPI inflation slowed to 3.4% in November from a year ago, down from 3.8% in October. This was a bigger fall than expected, but it is still above the RBA's 2–3% target. Still, this will ease the pressure on the RBA and push back any thought of rate rises. Housing was up 5.2%, food by 3.3%, and transport by +2.7%. As the electricity subsidy rollback fades, that is reducing pressure overall.Australian building consents rose sharply in November, up +15.2% to 18,406, a rise dominated by apartment approvals.And while we complain about high prices for dairy products and meat because of our low dollar and high international demand, get ready for much higher fish prices too. The West Australian government has permanently closed it's snapper fishery, and fish wholesalers there are now flying in New Zealand snapper to fill the shortage.The UST 10yr yield is now just under 4.14%, down -4 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +67 bps.The price of gold will start today at US$4458/oz, and down -US$29 from yesterday. Silver is down -US$4 to US$78/oz.American oil prices are down -US$1.50 USc from yesterday at just under US$56/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$60/bbl. These are both near five year lows.The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from yesterday, still at just over 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 85.9 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 61.8, and actually little-changed yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$91,276 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news today is all about commodity prices. Silver has jumped sharply, gold and platinum are up, copper is at a record high, and both nickel and aluminium have surged too. Tin is at a three year high. Lithium is on the move up again too after a two year slumber.It's not only hard commodities. The overnight global dairy trade auction surprised to the upside. A small gain was anticipated but in the end we got a +6.3% rise in USD terms, +6.5% in NZD terms. There were gains across the board, but the largest was for WMP (+7.2%), followed by SMP (+5.4%). There follow a worrying string of declines that set in from August, Elevated buying from China was a key driver, but that was on top of sharp increases in demand from the Middle East.The +6.3% rise in USD was the largest since March 2021. The +6.5% rise in NZD was the largest since September 2022. Despite these encouraging signs, overall prices are now only back to early December levels. The rises will be welcome, but on their own are unlikely to alter any farmgate payout prices. Today's recovery will need to be sustained. Don't forget, prices in USD have fallen -22% from May 2025 even after today's lift.In the US, the S&P Global services PMI for the US retreated back to a modest expansion in December after the good expansion the previous month which was revised lower. This metric is now at an eight month low. New business growth dropped to its lowest in 20 months as inflationary pressure bit harder.Meanwhile, the Logistics Manager's Index retreated for a second consecutive month in December. It was the slowest expansion in the logistics sector since April 2024, with the majority of the downward pressure coming from inventory and warehousing markets. Transportation costs rose more than expected.Total vehicle sales in the US rose to a 16 mln annual rate in December, up from a 15.6 mln rate in November. A year ago they ran at 16.9 mln annual rate, so a -5.3% decline.In China, total vehicle sales have not yet been announced, but it is very likely they exceeded 36 mln in 2025 with growing strength in the past six months. That will be +14.6% higher than their 2024 level.China equities hit a decade high in Tuesday trading.Meanwhile, an historic climate shift is bringing record rainfall to China's northern regions, overwhelming unprepared cities and upending agriculture, while leaving the traditionally lush south parched.In Europe, food giant Nestle is recalling infant formula after serious contamination concerns.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.18%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4487/oz, and up another +US$45 from yesterday and heading back up toward its end of year record high. Silver is up sharply to US$81.50/oz and a new record high, and platinum is also back up sharply at US$2430 and also almost at its end of year record high.American oil prices are down -50 USc from yesterday at just over US$57.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$61.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday, now at just on 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 85.8 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 61.8, and down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,515 and down -1.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news elevated global uncertainty is pushing up prices for key minerals sharply today. Wall Street is of two minds about the risks and opportunities.But first in the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI contracted for a third consecutive month in December to the lowest level since October 2024 and lower than expected. Manufacturing activity contracted at a faster rate, led by pullbacks in production and inventories. Price pressures remained elevated. On the other hand, this survey shows new orders contracting less in December and new export orders staying quite low..This ISM result was much more somber than the earlier S&P Global factory PMI for the US was still expanding in December, but fell from November to its weakest expansion in the current five-month growth phase. New orders declined for the first time in a year, while exports fell for a seventh consecutive month, weighed down by the consequences to costs from tariff-taxes, and trade frictions.Staying in the US, their vaccine-sceptic Administration has opened the door to a "moderately severe" flu outbreak this year (their description). The US CDC estimates the season's toll so far at least 11 million illnesses, 120,000 hospitalisations and 5,000 deaths. In the 2024–25 season, CDC estimated at least 5.3 million illnesses, 63,000 hospitalizations and 2,700 deaths in the equivalent period.In China, the private S&P Global (RD) services PMI expanded modestly in December. But the survey also noted that business activity and sales both rose at their slowest rates in six months. Job shedding persists. Output price inflation fell for the second time in three months. This private services PMI however is more upbeat than the official version.Indonesia exports slumped in November, following smaller retreat in October and coming much worse than market forecasts. Exports to China were a key driver of the pullback, both for oil and non-oil exports. This is their steepest drop since February 2024.Singaporean retail sales were unchanged in November from October, but given November 2024 was a weak month, that means they were up +6.3% from a year earlier to be the strongest growth since February 2024.In Europe, after a two year transition, they now have the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), fully in force. That, requires importers of steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, electricity and hydrogen to purchase certificates to cover the carbon emissions embedded in their products. The mechanism is designed to force importers to pay the difference between the carbon price in the country of production and that in the EU, trying to prevent “carbon leakage,” when companies based in the EU move carbon-intensive production abroad to take advantage of lax standards. But countries like China or the US are not happy.In Australia, a key industry lobby group has warned the power grid is not ready for the projected growth in capacity demands for data centers. They say the consequences could be severe for homes and businesses.And staying in Australia, the large high in the Tasman Sea bringing settled weather to New Zealand is blocking cooling relief in Australia. They now say NSW, Victoria and South Australia will get searing hot days, warm nights and elevated bushfire risk later this week. The forecast is for daytime highs being eight to 16 degrees above average, and night minimums to be 10 to 15 degrees above average.We should note that copper has surged to a new record high of US$13,093/tonne. Nickel has surged recently, now at a one-year high. And we should probably should note that Chinese iron ore prices are not falling, holding at a similar level they have been at since early 2024.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.16%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4442/oz, and up +US$112 from yesterday and heading back up toward it record high. Silver is up to US$76.50/oz also back near its record high, and platinum is now at US$2269 and making the same upward shift.American oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just over US$58/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$61.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up another +20 bps from yesterday, now at just under 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 86.2 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 61.9, and up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,143 and up a strong +3.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news the global economy is ticking over normally, despite the weekend theatrics.In the coming week there is very little official data released in New Zealand. But in Australia we will get the November CPI readout, building permit data, and the merchandise trade result, both also for November. There are widespread expectations that this data will be good.Elsewhere, it is back to a full economic schedule in most places, all as Trump's colonising adventure in Venezuela takes shape. It is successfully distracting the real world from his domestic misfires, as he awaits the US Supreme Court's decision on tariffs. The US will release a bunch of labour market data (non-farm payrolls, JOLTs, and the now more important private payroll data - now Trump has yes-men controlling the official data flows). There will also be PMIs from the ISM this week, and the University of Michigan sentiment survey for January.Canada will also release jobs data.China will be releasing CPI and PPI data this week, and the private services PMI will drop sometime too.India will post its latest GDP update this week. In Japan, it will all be about corporate earnings reports.In Europe, the spotlight will be on inflation rates for the Eurozone and its largest economies, in addition to their jobless rates and major manufacturing gauges from Germany and Switzerland.Over the weekend, China unveiled early investment plans for 2026, signaling a renewed push to bolster China's economic growth through infrastructure spending. They are frontloading their stimulus. And their 2025 consumer goods subsidy programs will extend into 2026.China's property sector drag isn't going away, despite official ambivalence to the issue now. But some heavy hitters are calling for more forceful rescue plans.Meanwhile, Chinese president Xi said he expects 2026 growth to come in close to 5%.China has tightened silver export controls from January 1, widening restrictions on a commodity now seen as vital to many industries. This signaled tightening is behind the recent sharp run-up in price. Currently more than 60% of global production comes from China.China's official PMIs both moved from contraction in November to a steady-state in December, an unexpected improvement for both the factory sector, and their services sector - although neither are actually expanding yet. The gains are all from internal demand however, a shift Beijing is keen to encourage. The factory improvement is notable because it ends eight consecutive monthly declines.The private Markit/RatingDog China factory PMI unexpectedly rose as well in December from November's four-month low, besting market forecasts. This version also relied on better internal demand, offsetting weaker export demand.South Korea's exports hit a record US$710 bln in 2025, the first time they have rosen above US$700 bln. In December, their exports jumped +13.4% from a year earlier, the seventh consecutive month of growth and the strongest increase since July 2024. This was an acceleration from an +8.4% November rise.In India, they still had good factory growth in December, but a notable slowing of new orders has them on edge to end the year.In the US initial jobless claims rose marginally and by less than expected last week. New orders in American factories fell for first time in a year in December, but output growth remains solid. Tariffs continue to push up prices at an elevated pace, embedding inflation. Higher prices and weaker demand discouraged purchasing activity, just the ingredients for stagflation.Eyes are now turning to the US Supreme Court decision on the legality of Trump's tariff-taxes. It is due sometime this month. Trump himself is nervous about the ruling.In Europe, factory output declined for first time since February 2025 as their manufacturing PMI contracted in December. New orders fell. The overall situation was dragged down by Germany.In Australia late last week, Cotality said that national home values recorded the smallest gain in five months in December, with overall value rising just +0.7% in the month. Sydney and Melbourne were the biggest drag on the headline growth outcome with values sliding -0.1% lower. Brisbane, Adelaide and especially Perth continued their strong gains.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.19%, unchanged from this time Saturday. The price of gold will start today at US$4330/oz, and up +US$17 from Saturday. Silver is up to US$72.50/oz, and platinum is back up to US$2143/oz.American oil prices are up +50 USc from Saturday at just under US$57.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$60.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from Saturday, now at just under 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 86.2 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 61.7, and little-changed from Saturday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$91,343 and up +1.3% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/- 0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news precious metals prices are zooming higher today, most to new all-time heights.But first in the US, the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is back being tracked following the shutdown and it shows activity still notably lower than its long run trend, even if it did improve in September from August. It is barely back to the same drag level it was a year ago.American holiday retail sales for November and December are projected to grow between +3.7% and +4.2% over the same months last year, a weaker gain than last year's +4.3% increase. Revenue growth in November was about +1% compared to November 2024, with flat unit demand. Consumers are reportedly cautious, focusing spending on necessities, and higher-income consumers are driving most of the spending, while lower-income consumers remain constrained. Inflation-adjusted sales volumes are probably not growing. Ecommerce is a bright spot, with Deloitte forecasting a +7% to +9% growth for the season.In Canada, their November PPI came in +6.1% higher than a year ago. But this result was twisted by the very sharp run-up in the costs of precious metals, and diesel (after US sanctions on Russian diesel twisted their demand for Canadian product). But even without those, they would have had more than a +4% rise.In Japan at one point yesterday, their 10 year government bond hit 2.10% and its highest level since 1999. It has eased slightly since, but this has had a depressive impact on the Yen, and there is market talk of intervention now.In China, their central bank held key lending rates at record lows for a seventh consecutive month in December, as expected. Earlier they had left their seven-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 1.4% and this is now their main policy rate. They seem to have less intentions for more monetary stimulus as the economy looks like it is on track to meet this year's growth target of "around 5%".And staying in China, they have slapped some substantial duty penalties on certain EU dairy products. The claim is that the French and Dutch subsidise their production. Although these new duties are relatively narrowly targeted, it will be a major trade escalation in the eye of the EU.And we should also note that India and New Zealand have agreed a new substantial free trade deal. Almost all New Zealand business groups have welcomed the breakthrough, which the Indians are using as a benchmark for deep agreements with other countries. But 2026 is election year and one party, NZ First, is using the deal to promote its anti-immigration credentials.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4437/oz, and up +US$99 from yesterday and easily a new record high. Silver has surged to, up +US$2 to just under US$69/oz, and also a new record high. Platinum hit US$2115/oz earlier today, and approaching it 2008 record highs.American oil prices are up almost +US$1.50 from yesterday at just under US$58/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just under US$62/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday, now at just under 58 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 62.1, and up +30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,163 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just under +/- 1.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. We are taking a short break and we will be back on Monday, December 29 with another update.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news we are ending 2025 with more signs of the consequences of the Trump twist and the fading of American economic dominance. But it may not be to China where the economic power flows.This short week is critical worldwide for retail sales, but discounting early is well set in most markets so there are fears the post-holiday 'sales' could bring anticlimactic results. And it hasn't been helped by a rambling and vengeful performance by Trump in a speech pre-billed as an indicator of economic 'progress'. Markets cast a sceptical eye on it on Friday (US time) with US bond yields rising after it.This week will bring US durable goods order updates and industrial production updates in the US, more regional Fed factory surveys, and the Conference Board's survey of sentiment. None are expected to be very strong. But the 'official' update for Q3 GDP for the US is expected to show the result Trump is looking for.China will be closeted in another national party conference with economic topics high on their agenda. Japan will release a range of data expected to be mixed. There will be more data from Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan. Australia has concluded its 2025 economic releases, but New Zealand will have its lending and funding data releases for November on Tuesday.Over the weekend, China released its foreign direct investment data and it turned higher in October, up a net +US$6.6 bln from September and higher than the year-ago gain of +US$6.2 bln, although that still leaves the year-to-date level -7.5% lower and extending the streak of contractions that began in May 2023. The current gains are actually tiny for a country the size of China. Later today they will review their official loan prime rates, but no changes is expected from the current record low levels.In Japan, and as clearly signaled, their central bank moved their policy rate up by +25 bps to 0.75% late on Friday. It was their second hike this year after their similar January move. Policymakers there see extended wage inflation and rising company profits. But it did point out that real interest rates remain significantly negative and that overall financial conditions are 'broadly accommodative'. Markets took these signals to be slightly more hawkish than expected and pushed the Japanese 10 year bond yield higher, to a twenty year high.Malaysia's booming economy is now drawing in imports faster than the rise in their exports, and it was barely able to post a trade surplus in November. Exports were up +7.0% from a year ago, but imports jumped at more than twice that rate, up +15.8%.In the US, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey was revised lower in December although up marginally from November's unusual low. It is however -28% lower than year-ago levels. Both measures for current conditions and expectations were revised down. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the year-ahead were revised up to 4.2% from 4.1% in the November survey. Perceived 'affordability' issues are building.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.15%, unchanged from this time Saturday but down -5 bps from this time last week.The price of gold will start today at US$4338/oz, and down -US$13 from Saturday, but up +US$44/oz from a week ago.American oil prices are little-changed from Saturday at just on US$56.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now just on US$60.50/bbl and up +50 USc. From a week ago these prices are down -US$1/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday, now at just on 57.6 USc which is down -40 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are also unchanged at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just over 61.8, little-changed from Saturday, down -30 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$88,354 and up +1.2% from this time Saturday. It is down -2.1% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low, at just under +/- 0.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news there were many central banks reviewing their settings overnight and most stayed unchanged.But first up today we can report a considerable surprise in the November CPI result. Markets had expected a 3.1% rate. But there was no October reading due to shutdown problems and this may have affected the collecting of November data. In any case the official November result was published as a rise of 2.7%, a sharply lower level no analyst saw coming. Apparently, falling rents were a big part of the retreat. (And don't forget, the last US BLS boss who delivered unwelcome results was fired by the Administration.). In any event, financial markets have taken it at face value, accepting there is no affordability problem, Just as the President has claimed.And official US initial jobless claims came in at the expected +255,000, so there are now 1.882 mln people on these benefits, fractionally more than the 1.864 mln in the same week a year ago.In non-Administration controlled data, the news isn't so bright. The Philly Fed's December factory survey fell sharply again, retreating as it has done in the past two months. And this came as new orders actually rose, although from a low level. It is a survey that has reported 'future conditions' very positive for more than a year now, but also reporting 'current conditions languishing.The similar Kansas City Fed factory survey fell into a mild contraction in December, a sharpish fall from November. Again, those surveyed were still upbeat probably because new orders ticked higher. But more companies are reporting higher prices paid for supplies.In Canada, they are reporting rising SME business optimism, and the highest since May 2022.The Taiwan central bank held its policy rate unchanged at 2% overnight. The ECB held their unchanged too at 2.15%.Sweden held their 1.75% rate unchanged as well at their overnight meeting. Norway held their at 4.0%. But the English central bank had a need to cut theirs, by -25 bps to 3.75%, in a split 5-4 decision (the four dissenters wanted no cut.) Japan will review its policy rate later today and is widely expected to raise it by +25 bps.In Australia, inflation expectations rose to 4.7% in December from 4.5% in November, and have now been at or above 4.5% for six of the past seven months.Global freight rates for containerised cargoes rose +12% last week to be -43% lower than year-ago levels. The latest rise was driven by very much stronger demand in the outbound China to the US rates. Separately, bulk cargo freight rates fell -13% last week but are now +50% higher than year ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.13%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4367/oz, and up another +US$35 from yesterday, and which we make as a new record high. Silver is at US$65/oz and sharply back off its record high.American oil prices are slightly firmish from yesterday at just under US$56.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is still just under US$60/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday, still at just on 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are -20 bps softer at 87.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 62, and again little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$88,092 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, at just on +/- 2.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news we are entering the end of year shadow of economic releases, but there are still some important things to come. And the upcoming sentiment signals as the holidays approach are not overly optimistic. Today tech industry concerns are weighing on equity markets.Elsewhere, US mortgage applications fell -3.8% last week, the biggest dip in a month. Applications to purchase a home declined -2.8% while home loan refinance fell -3.6%. Benchmark mortgage interest rates were little-changed.More Fed speakers were out overnight, with a Trump favourite (Christopher Waller) saying US rates can be cut by -1%. Waller is a candidate for a Trump nomination to replace Powell. But Atlanta Fed boss Bostic says any rate cuts now will just fuel inflation which he sees as already too high.In Canada, foreign investment in Canadian securities in October rose to their highest level since March 2022, a sharp rise from the high September level and far above what analysts were expecting.And we should note that the Bank of Canada is moving ahead with its plan to support an official stablecoin.Also in Canada, we should note they had their biggest dip in population in Q3-2025 as they effectively shut their doors to immigrants. It was their first-ever drop (outside the pandemic)In Japan, machinery orders, (but excluding volatile sectors such like ships and electric power systems), jumped +7.0% in October from September's good 4.2% gain. This is even better than expected, because a -2.3% decline was anticipated. The October level was also the highest since March.So it won't be a surprise to know that Japan's exports rose +6.1% in November from a year ago, the third consecutive monthly gain and better than the expected rise. In fact, it was the fastest pace in export shipments since February, and was driven by demand from the US who have just accepted that they have to pay their tariff-taxes. This gain pushed Japan back into a trade surplus.In Indonesia, their central bank left its policy rate unchanged in its meeting yesterday at 4.75%, as expected. They see inflation holding in its +/-1% target around 2.5%. In Europe there will be monetary policy decisions tonight, with the ECB expected to hold and the Bank of England to cut.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.16%, little-changed from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4332/oz, and up +US$35 from yesterday, and touching its record highs. Silver is at US$66.50/oz and a new record high. We should also keep an eye on platinum too, also near its recent record highs. 2026 could be "interesting" for precious metals.American oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just over US$56/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$1 at just on US$60/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday, at just on 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are +20 bps firmer at 87.5 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just on 62, and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,671 and down -1.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, at just on +/- 2.1%.Join us at 10:45am this morning when we will be reporting the Q3-2025 change in economic activity (GDP). Markets are expecting a +1.3% rise from a year ago, a +0.9% from Q2. And they are expecting Q2 to be revised up. Material variations from that will have financial market implications.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news of some messy US data which Wall Street is nervous about, but elsewhere most other countries are on the improve (China excepted).But first up today, the overnight dairy auction was another bad one with prices down -4.4% in USD terms and down -5.4% in NZD terms. The key WMP price fell -5.7% in USD terms. This is now serious. The recent downgrades to current season milk payout forecasts are going to get looked at again by the analysts. Since the peak in May, theses prices have dropped -25% and are down -17% from this time last year. We are in a full bear market for dairy prices. Making it worse is that we are now just past the seasonal peak of the milk curve, which will take the top off the country's export earnings. Yesterday's MPI SOPI is already out of date, and even that wasn't very positive about earnings from dairy exports.The catch up update of the US labour market didn't really reveal much or surprise many. It reported a steep drop in October and a half-bounce-back in November. The net result is a loss of -41,000 jobs over the period of the US Government shutdown. Not seasonally adjusted, there was a good +920,000 rise in employment from September to November, but this is far less than the +1,355 mln in the same 2024 period. Despite their unemployment rate rising to 4.6% and a four year high, their labour market isn't a net drag yet, but it is now getting close.The more current weekly jobs report from ADP recorded a small gain last week, but the prior week's gain was revised sharply lower.But overall, this latest jobs data is messy, and probably no help to the Fed when setting monetary policyMeanwhile US retail sales in October showed no gain from September to maintain their year-on-year +3.8% gain, just marginally ahead of current US inflation. These latest results have been dragged lower by declining car sales.The flash American December factory PMI came in positive, but only just and a six month low.Across the Pacific in Japan, their flash December PMI reported an increase in new orders supporting a rise in business activity. But their factory PMI isn't quite yet at expansion despite the improvement.In India, their factory PMI shows output rising strongly, but the momentum is showing signs of slowing. Most countries would love PMI's like they have however.In the Eurozone, business activity rose again in December to complete full calendar year of expansion. But their factory PMI dipped slightly to take the top off the result. Hurting was the re-emergence of inflationary pressure.The latest S&P Global PMI for Australia for December finds the factory sector expanding in a minor way and a little faster than in November helped by expanding new order levels. But the service sector is now expanding slower, in fact barely expanding.Staying in Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey of consumer confidence retreated in December and by more than expected and into net negative territory. In fact, no change was expected. The survey found a sharp change in what is expected for mortgage rates, going from a expecting a fall, to now expecting them to rise. Views on the economic outlook and household finances have deteriorated, but those surveyed are still confident about the Australian labour market. Views on homebuying and house prices have been pared back.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.16%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +67 bps. The price of gold will start today at US$4297/oz, and up +US$2 from yesterday.American oil prices are down another -US$1 at just under US$55.50/bbl and a new five year low, while the international Brent price is now just on US$59/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday, at just on 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are +10 bps firmer at 87.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62, and littel-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,541 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just on +/- 1.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we start with news the US Fed is struggling with its diverging views ahead of tomorrow's catch up non-farm payrolls report. Wall Street is dipping in anticipation. The oil price is falling on concerns demand is weakening.Overnight, two Fed speakers were out delivering different views. Trump insert Stephen Miran essentially called affordability concerns overblown and reckoned the data doesn't show an affordability problem. Whereas NY Fed boss John Williams sees 'resilience' and on-going price pressures.Meanwhile, the latest regional Fed factory survey is from the New York region and it turned into a contraction in December after two months of expansion. It was an unexpected turn lower. New orders held steady, and inflation pressures eased, but activity declined noticeably.On the home building front, the widely watched national survey of home builders remained glum, even if it did improve marginally. This measure stayed in contraction for the 20th consecutive month. Builders are contending with higher construction costs, economic and tariff risks, and muted demand from buyers who cite affordability concerns.In Canada, their CPI inflation came in at 2.2% in the year to November, unchanged from October. However, food prices rose 4.2%. Meanwhile, Canadian housing starts rose in November, consistent with the building permit trend we have noted before. But there are questions about whether that will last because November real estate sales were lower on volume and lower in price.In Japan, a series of Q4-2025 business sentiment surveys show good or rising confidence levels, now up to a four year high. This is true for large firms (recall our reports of how they are winning against the Trump tariff-taxes), the local services sector, and now a good jump for small businesses.In China, new home prices across their 70 major cities dropped -2.4% in November from a year ago, deepening from a 2.2% decline in the previous two months. The latest results are the 29th consecutive month of price drops and the steepest pace since August. Beijing is involved in a long struggle to overcome the seemingly endless weakness in their property sector. The price declines for housing resales are deeper, but not more sharp, even if they are just relentless.China's retail sales were notably weak in November, rising just +1.3% from a year ago and far below the expected +2.9% (with some expecting a +3.3% gain). This is a real cold-water moment for the Chinese economy and will undoubtedly bring emergency actions from Beijing. One reason for the weakness may have been the end of consumer goods subsidies, and the widespread expectation that they would be reinstated. Such subsidies are a trap on public finances.Chinese industrial production rose +4.8% in November, below the expected +5.0% rise and near the lowest growth level since late 2023. Despite its lowish level, there are reasons to be sceptical of even this level. (See next item.)But November electricity production in China was up only +2.7% from the same month a year ago, showing up the October year-on-year surge as an outlier.In India, their November exports rose while their imports fell, delivering a much smaller trade deficit for the month than was expected; in fact their lowest since June. And the November shifts were true for both goods and services.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.18%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4295/oz, and down -US$4 from yesterday. And we should note that silver is up +US$1 at just over US$62/oz.American oil prices are down another -US$1 at just on US$56.50/bbl and a five year low, while the international Brent price is now just over US$60/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is -10 bps softer from yesterday, now at just over 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 87.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62, and down -20 bps from yesterday, shifted by a fall against the Japanese yen.The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,357 and down -2.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, at just on +/- 2.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news today dominated by the vile attack in Sydney, extremism begetting extremism all permitted by unfiltered hatreds flowing out from its center. Financial news seems trivial in light of this. Of course we won't be covering this Australian tragedy. But it is likely to harden attitudes just when they need to soften.In the meantime, we are noting tech weakness dominating equity markets, and Fed speaker comments (here and here) pushing long benchmark bond yields higher. The USD is soft and down nearly -1% for the week. But first, the week ahead will locally feature Wednesday's current account data, and more so by Thursday's GDP tracking of Q3-2025 economic activity. The final consumer and business confidence survey results will likely come this week too.In Australia on the economic front, it will be about tracking household wealth, also out on Thursday.In the US, they will release catch-up data for non-farm payrolls on Wednesday for both October (??) and November. (+35,000 expected) That will be followed by November CPI data (3.2% expected). A slew of other US activity data will hit the news as well.In Japan, financial markets will be glued to their central bank meeting results (expect a +25 bps rise to 0.75%) along with a 3%+ CPI reading. From China, they will have their big monthly data dump of retail and industrial activity. In India they will release a lot of data too, including PMIs, but then, we will also get PMIs from many other countries, including our own PSI as well.Over the weekend, China said its new loan demand remains unusually weak, and in November came in even lower than the weak forecasts by observers. Chinese banks extended ¥390 bln in new yuan loans, up from the unusually low October level but still below both last year's weak ¥580 bln and market expectations of ¥500 bln. Soft household demand continues to weigh on stimulus efforts. Remember, over the past five years, this loan demand has averaged ¥830 bln in a November month so the current drag is notable.And it is looking increasingly like investors, including boardroom directors in charge of making capital expenditure decisions, have goner on a quiet strike in China.And staying in China, things just got worse for wavering China Vanke on Friday, once one of China's largest property developers. The Shenzhen-city controlled business was unable to get bondholder support for its latest financial restructuring. So current lenders took more of its assets as security.India's CPI inflation remains very low at +0.7% in November from a year ago, up from its record low level in October. This was driven by an almost -4% fall in food prices.India's bank loan growth is back up +11.5% from a year ago and its fastest expansion this year.In Malaysia, both their retail sales (+7.2% year-on-year) and their industrial production (+6.0%) expanded at an accelerating pace in October data released overnight.In Japan, it is becoming clear (from company financial reporting) that the Trump tariffs on Japanese exports have backfired. Japanese companies raised their prices after the initial tariff hit, the Americans paid the higher prices, and when Washington backed away from some of the more extreme levels after negotiation, and those hiked prices didn't retreat. They stayed up and boosted Japanese company profits. The picture was probably similar elsewhere. The ultimate losers have been the American buyers. American reshoring has been weak, so much so that one Fed member is now more worried about jobs than inflation.Canadian building consents surprised analysts with quite a surge in October, especially residential consents for multi-unit buildings in Toronto. That drove an outsized +15% national gain from September to be +19% higher than a year ago. On an annual basis, residential consents are also up +19% with Ontario up more than +28%.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.20%, unchanged from this time Saturday, up +6 bps from this time last week. The price of gold will start today at US$4299/oz, and up +US$5 from Saturday, up +US$84 from a week ago and back near its mid-October peak. And we should note that silver unchanged at US$62/oz.American oil prices are holding at just on US$57.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is down -50 USc at just over US$61/bbl. Both are -US$2.50 lower than a week ago. Separately, it is very noticeable that the North American rig counts are still languishing near their four year lows. No-one is rushing to invest as prices and demand stay very low.The Kiwi dollar is -10 bps softer from Saturday, now at just over 58 USc. But it is up +430 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 87.2 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged too at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2, and up +10 bps from Saturday, up +20 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$88,831 and down -1.6% from this time Saturday, and and essentially unchanged from last week at this time. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low, at just on +/- 0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world's economy is handling the US tariff-tax buffeting quite well.Financial market reactions to the US Fed rate cut yesterday, and the nature of its split decision, has seen the USD fall, bonds shift to a risk averse tone, and Wall Street retreat, although it has recovered to break-even in the past hour. The oil price has fallen as demand estimates in the US fade.Today, in a very big shift, there were 313,100 actual initial jobless claims last week in the US which is the largest weekly rise since early in 2020. There are now 1.965 mln people on these benefits, +2% more than at this time last year.We should also note that the US home ownership rate in Q3-2025 was 65.3%. A year ago it was 65.6%. (In New Zealand it is 66.0%.) Their rental vacancy rate is now 7.1%, up from 6.9% a year ago.US wholesale inventories are rising according to late-released September data, now up +4.8% from a year ago. But their inventory-to-sales ratio isn't anywhere near concerning levels yet.US exports rose marginally in September, largely driven by the export of gold which accounted for 70% of the monthly rise. Computer exports fell, and travel receipts by visitors also retreated notably. Meanwhile imports into the US were little-changed. The shift of gold out enabled them to record their lowest trade deficit since 2020.In Canada however, their export growth was much stronger, and also featuring gold. Their exports jumped +6.3%, while imports were down -4.1%. That turned a trade deficit of -C$6.4 bln in August to a small trade surplus of +C$153 mln surplus in September and ending the 2025 negative monthly outcomes. Canada's exports of aircraft, and energy products (oil and electricity) rose significantly in September.Across the Pacific, Japan's Business Survey Index for large manufacturers rose to +4.7% in Q4-2025, up from 3.8% in the prior quarter and the strongest reading this year. This was better than expected, underscoring continued resilience despite trade frictions, growth concerns and their mounting fiscal risks.China has signaled that 2026 economic support from Beijing will be more modest than many had thought it would be.Switzerland reviewed its interest rate overnight and left it at 0%. They have inflation at +0.2%.We can also note the Central Bank of Turkey cut its policy rate by -150 bps to 38% overnight, a fourth consecutive reduction, and by more than markets expected. They claim inflation is starting to ease, especially food inflation. Overall inflation is still running over 30% pa, although that is half the rate of a year ago.In Australia, their November labour market report showed employment fell -21,300 (s.a.) from October, an unexpected result, but remained +182,400 higher than a year ago. Full-time employment fell -56,500 but part-time employment rose +35,200. Their jobless rate was stable at 4.3%. Underemployment rose to 6.2%.Container freight rates rose +2% last week from the prior week, largely on the back of rising rates from China to the EU. Rates from China to the US are falling as trade volumes ease. These container rates are now -45% lower than year-ago levels. Meanwhile bild cargo rates are +111% higher than year-ago levels, after last week's -14.8% fall off the recent peak.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.12%, down -4 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4273/oz, and up +US$70 from yesterday and back near its peak. And we should note again that silver has set a new record high, just under US$64/oz with another big move.American oil prices are down almost -US$1 at just over US$57/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$61/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is +30 bps firmer from yesterday, now at just on 58.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 87.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.3, and up +30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,977 and down another -2.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, at just over +/- 2.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets have essentially been on hold overnight awaiting the US Fed's decision.In the end, the Fed's FOMC trimmed its key rate by -25 bps to 3.75% as markets had guessed it would do. But it was not unanimous. The Trump stooge on the committee wanted a far larger cut. But the professional members fear inflation still and the small trim was the uneasy compromise. The voting was 9 members to cut by -25 bps, two to hold unchanged, and Miran wanting a big cut.Immediately after, the UST 10yr benchmark was active with a softish tone but really little-changed. the S&P500 rose, and the USD fell slightly. More reaction will come after Chairman Powell's press conference which is about to start soon.Earlier, the report on US mortgage applications was quite positive, up 4.8% last week from the week before which you may recall brought a small but unexpected retreat. The latest week however was all about refinance applications which were up +15% on that same prior week basis.An Q3-2025 data for US payroll compensation costs (pay plus payroll taxes plus benefits) were up +3.5% from a year ago, rising at about that rate in the latest quarter too. So American inflation isn't getting any respite from this direction.Quite how odd the US public policy has become is revealed in a current court case. US Federal prosecutors spent over a year extraditing a Belarusian woman to the US to face charges she illegally smuggled US tech to Russia for its war on Ukraine. Then ICE stepped in accusing her of being in the country illegally, and deported her, collapsing the case. Moscow smirked in satisfaction.In Canada, their central bank stood pat, holding their policy rate unchanged at 2.25% as widely expected. The say this is about the right level in the current uncertain environment. But they were surprised by the upside growth of GDP at +2.6% in the third quarter, found the labour market improvement better than anticipated as their unemployment rate fell. CPI inflation slowed to 2.2% in October and they see core inflation remaining in the 2.5% to 3% range.Across the Pacific in China, there was a slight rise in CPI inflation, enhance because the previous inflation was so low. Their inflation rose 0.7% in November from a year ago, as expected and accelerating from a +0.2% increase in October. This time, food price inflation was very low. It was the second consecutive month of consumer inflation and the fastest pace since February 2024.Meanwhile China's producer prices fell into a steeper deflation, down -2.2% in November from a year ago.And the IMF has raised its forecast for growth of the Chinese economy for 2025 and 2026, now expecting to see an expansion of +5.0% this year.And some influential analysts are saying the Chinese yuan is 25% undervalued and will appreciate more than forwards contracts are pricing for 2026.And in the EU, the ECB boss Christine Lagarde says they will likely raise their forecast for EU growth as well.In Australia, if you are retired and have assets, you need to pay a tax on a deemed rate of interest on your assets (irrespective of what they actually earn, if anything). That rate depends on how many assets you have. They raised it in September 2025 and have now signaled they will raise it again in March.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.16%, dipping -0.1 bp from this time yesterday and holding that after the Fed decision.The price of gold will start today at US$4204/oz, and down -US$17 from yesterday. And we should note again that silver has set a new record high, just under US$61/oz.American oil prices are little-changed at just om US$58/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$62/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is +10 bps firmer from yesterday, now at just under 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie though we are again essentially unchanged at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62, and down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,274 and down -2.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just over +/- 1.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world is awash in better economic news today in many of the world's largest economies.First, the overnight dairy Pulse auction of the two key milk powders brought more weakness. The SMP price fell another -0.5% from last week's full auction, but as the NZD is rising, it was actually down -1.6% in NZD terms. The WMP fared worse, down -3.6% on the same basis in USD, down -4.2% in NZD. It is not a good trajectory.In the US there were some key labour market reports out today. First the weekly ADP private payrolls update for last week recorded a small +5000 gain which follows five consecutive weeks where they recorded more than a -27,000 loss of jobs (which was consistent with what they reported for the November month).And the catch-up JOLTS report for October showed little-change from September, but job openings were a little higher than anticipated for both months.And the widely watched SME sentiment survey from the NFIB was marginally better than expected, up slightly from October, but just back to the levels it has been at since May although that still leaves it at a slight net negative. Interestingly, the retail Redbook survey eased back a bit last week to the average rise it has recorded since later 2023, which mirrors retail inflation that is juiced by tariff-taxes. It is perhaps an indicator that the Thanksgiving seasonal retail was not as strong as hoped.There is more evidence that Trump is just plain dumb. After his failure to get the Chinese to buy US soybeans at scale, he is rolling out US$16 mln in taxpayer support for some farmers which will actually be very little for most. Now he is threatening swingeing tariffs on Canadian fertilizer imports of potash, oblivious that even if that blocks cheap Canadian imports, it will leave high-priced local product, with a net loss for farmers, probably exceeding US$15 bln. Even a high school economics student can see the flaws in his approach, which embeds higher costs on Americans.Trump has also handed China a huge AI chip win, agreeing to let Nvidia sell its best stuff to China. This will allow China to close the gap on the US AI advantages much faster now. The US security community is gobsmacked. China may not buy a lot, but it doers give them access to the technology.In Japan, machine tool orders were strong in November, up +14.2% from a year ago continuing expanded growth over the past seven months. But domestic demand actually fell. It was foreign orders that were the star here, up by +23%.Next week, there will be an important central bank meeting in Tokyo. Overnight remarks by the Bank of Japan governor seemed to set the groundworks for another rate rise on the basis that inflation is embedding, especially wage inflation, and that the risks of deflation there are receding on a permanent basis. Japanese long term interest rates are now approaching 2% and a twenty year high..Taiwanese exports were exceptionally strong again, as we have come to expect. They surged +56% in November from a year ago to a record US$64 bln, up from a 49% gain in October and again better that market expectations for a 41% rise. It is strong global demand for their chips and AI technology that is powering these amazing results.German exports also rose in October, a surprise because that had risen strongly in September and a small correction was expected.We get US export data on Friday, and in contrast to Japan, Germany, Taiwan and China, they are currently expected to show a retreat.In Australia, the RBA kept the cash rate on hold at Tuesday's review as expected. Their review was slightly more hawkish, firmly focused on the upside risks to inflation. And that is what financial markets reacted to with bond yields rising as a result.And staying in Australia, the NAB Business Confidence Index slipped in November from October, but stayed just positive, although the weakest reading since April. The survey showed business conditions softened after declines in sales and profitability.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, unchanged from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4217/oz, and up +US$26 from yesterday. And we should note that silver has set a new record high, over US$60/oz.American oil prices are down -US$1 again at just over US$58/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$62/bbl. Analysts are sow saying a 'super glut' of oil is on the way, and downward price pressures will rise from here.The Kiwi dollar is +10 bps firmer from yesterday, now at just on 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie though we are essentially unchanged at 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.1, and also up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$94,444 and up +5.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate, at just over +/- 2.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news long term bond yields are on the move higher again with the UST 10yr at a 4 month high, but the Japanese yen is now at a 27 year high. The Australian equivalent is at a 2 year high and threatening a 14 year benchmark, while the NZGB 10 year is at a 5 month high.In the US, the top-line survey of inflation expectations seems stable at a highish 3.2% for the year ahead, 3.0% for 5 years ahead. But within that are some signals that have garnered attention. Expectations for food rose to 5.9%, petrol climbed to 4.1%, medical care surged to 10.1% (the highest since January 2014), college education increased to 8.4%, and rent jumped to 8.3%. The main reason the overall lid remained is that house price expectations fell. The survey indicated that consumers expect a worsening financial situation.The failure of the Trump Administration to get a deal out of China for agricultural exports is seeing them scrambling to support their farmers with direct subsidies.There was another US Treasury auction today, the ever-popular 3 year Note. But offer volumes fell more than -7% for this event. It delivered a median yield of 3.57%, little-changed from the 3.54% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In Japan, a powerful earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.5 struck northeastern Japan late Monday night, with aaa a tsunami warning for coastal areas of Hokkaido issued.Japan's GDP contracted -0.6% in Q3 2025 from Q2, a larger fall than the flash estimate of a -0.4% decline and market forecasts for a -0.5% drop. The latest figure followed a downwardly revised -0.5% growth in Q2 and marked the first quarterly contraction since Q1 2024, with business spending slipping for the first time in three quarters.In China, they released November trade data overnight and their exports rose by +5.9% from a year ago to an eleven-month high, much better than the expected +3.8% rise and recovering from the -1.1% fall in October. There was a notable surge in exports to non-US markets. A lower than expected rise in imports delivered at trade balance exceeding +US$110 for the month and extending their rise that started with the Trump challenge in late 2024. Separation from the US has delivered a rising export dividend for China. For the eleven months of 2025 so far, the Chinese trade surplus has now exceeded US$1 tln.Over all of 2025 to the US, their exports fell -18% and their imports fell -13%. To Australia, China's exports are up +8% while imports are down -8%. To New Zealand, China's exports are up +4% while their imports are up +10%.As good as these export numbers are for China, they are also going into debt at an equally impressive rates. China's central government will likely issue more than CNY12 tln (US$1.7 tln) of new debt in 2026, with a fiscal deficit ratio of at least 4%. There is alarm in some quarters as the expansionist policies get the official tick..In Europe, German industrial production rose +1.8% in October from September, sharply outperforming market expectations for a -0.4% decline. It was the strongest monthly gain since March. Year on year it is up +0.8%. The Germans measure this metric in real, inflation-adjusted terms.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.17%, up another +3 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$4191/oz, and down -US$6 from yesterday.American oil prices are down -US$1 at just over US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is just under US$63/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is marginally softer from yesterday, now at just under 57.7 USc, down -10 bps. Against the Aussie though we are up +10 bps at just on 87.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.9, and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,846 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just over +/- 1.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news long term global bond yields are rising.The coming week will be one dominated by the final central bank monetary policy decisions of the year. The big one, the one that will likely move markets, is the US one on Thursday NZT. Markets expect a -25 bps cut to 3.75%. There will also be central bank decisions from Canada (Thursday, no change expected), Switzerland (Friday, no change), Australia (Tuesday, no change), Brazil (Thursday, no change), and Turkey (Friday, -100 bps).This week will also feature China releasing a series of key November economic data including for exports (expected to be strong), CPI inflation (expected to rise marginally but stay very low), PPI (still in deflation). Monetary and debt data will also be closely watched. In Japan, it will be all about their Q3 GDP, PPI, and machine tool orders.In India, markets will focus on November inflation data.In Australia, apart from the expected no-change RBA decision, labour market data will likely show their jobless rate edging up, and business confidence surveys are expected to be broadly stable.At the end of last week bond markets kept pushing up long term yields. The rise of Japanese long bond yields has this market concerned. But that just comes on top of where US fiscal stability is heading.In the US, personal income data is in catch-up mode with September details released over the weekend. Income was up +1.9% from a year ago while personal expenditures were up +2.1% on the same basis. Their PCE version of inflation was +2.8% and rising. There are no real surprises in this now-old data.Meanwhile US consumer debt rose +2.2% or +US$9.2 bln in October, less than expected and less than the September rise. Revolving debt (like credit cards) rose at an annual rate of +4.9%. Non-revolving debt which includes car and student loans was up +1.2%.Earlier, the University of Michigan December consumer sentiment survey reported it didn't fall from November, posting a small, probably insignificant gain. That leaves it -28% lower than a year ago. Year-ahead inflation expectations decreased from 4.5% last month to 4.1% this month. Despite the nominal improvements, the overall levels across the board remain quite dismal for most consumers there.Canada reported payroll data for November over the weekend and rather than the expected -5000 dip, they got a +53,600 gain in overall employment. But unfortunately for them, all the gains were in part-time employment (+63,000) with full time jobs shrinking -9,400.This extended better-than-expected labour market report is one of the reasons the IMF's latest review of Canada was quite positive. They are impressed by how Canada is handling the attempted-trashing it has been getting from the US.In China, their foreign exchange reserves, already very large, climbed to US$3.346 tln in November and fractionally less than expected. It was the fourth straight month of increases, to the highest level since November 2015 and it happened even though the US dollar weakened. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China continued to add to its gold holdings for the thirteenth consecutive month, with reserves edging up to 74.1 mln troy ounces in November and their value rose +4.5% in a month (in USD).In India, and as expected, their central bank cut its key repo rate by -25 bps to 5.25% at its Friday meeting. They claim confidence in a softer inflation outlook. The RBI has now cut rates by a total of -125 bps since the beginning of the year, bringing the repo rate to its lowest level since July 2022.In Japan, household personal spending fell unexpectedly in October, and quite hard. It was down -2.9% from a year ago, way different to the market expectations of a +1.0% rise, and reversing a +1.8% gain in September. It was the first decline since April. From September, personal spending fell -3.5%, and starkly different from the expected +0.7% rise.In Germany, factory orders rose +1.5% in October from September, better than the expected +0.5% gain but slowing from an upwardly revised 2.0% gain in the previous month. From a year ago, their factory orders are down -0.7% however. The latest data was boosted by a very large (+87%) jump in orders for large equipment like aircraft, ships, and trains. There was also a +12% rise in metal production and processing. In contrast, demand for electrical equipment fell -16%. These are all quite big moves with the overall change.Globally, the FAO says its Food Price Index declined for the third consecutive month in November, with all indices but cereals down. Dairy prices were down -1.6% from a year ago, down -11.5% from their June peak. Meat prices were up +5.0% from a year ago but down -2.7% from their recent September peak.It is probably worth noting that the Argentine wheat crop is going to be huge this year, one that will have global impacts. In Australia, the winter wheat crop will be the second largest ever too.Also worth noting is that Trump's boast to farmers that the Chinese will be back buying American soybeans in a major way was just fantasy. They have bought only minor volumes. Administration officials are now admitting there never was any agreement.And we should also probably note that the copper price is moving up sharply again, back toward its US-tariff-induced July heights.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.14%, unchanged from this time Saturday, up +12 bps for the week. The price of gold will start today at US$4197/oz, and down -US$18 from Saturday, down -US$13 for the week. Silver is moving higher again, back at over US$58.50/oz and near its record high.American oil prices are holding at just over US$60/bbl, while the international Brent price is still at just under US$64/bbl, and up about +US$1 for the week.The Kiwi dollar is marginally higher from Saturday, now at just under 57.8 USc, up +50 bps for the week. Against the Aussie though we are unchanged at just on 87 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.9, and little-changed from yesterday and from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$89,503 and up +0.7% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just on +/- 1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news of some notable and sudden rises in freight rates.But first, US jobless claims came in lower last week than expected at 197,200 in a holiday-affected period. Seasonal factors has expected a lesser decrease. There are now 1.7 mln people on these benefits nationally. A year ago, there were 1.66 mln on them.The November job cut tracking shows it was less than in October, coming in for the latest month at 77,000. That ends a strong of outsized monthly cutbacks although it is +24% higher than year-ago levels. In fact for only the sixth time since 1993 has the year-to-date level been higher than 1.1 mln and the 2025 level is now the highest since the pandemic.There was also catchup data out overnight for US factory orders for September. They were little-changed from August but were +5.3% higher than year-ago levels. They are still struggling to recover official stats and no revised dates are available for their October or November updates.Meanwhile the NY Feds tracking of global supply chain pressure shows it is easing. Their index eased to -0.16 in November, weakening from -0.09 in October. The index reflects deviations in global supply chain conditions relative to its historical average, with negative values indicating below-average pressure.EU retail sales were up +1.6% from a year ago in volume terms in October, better than the expected +1.2% gain. But that was a slowing in their retail expansion from what they have had for most of 2025.In Australia, household spending rose +5.6% in October from the same month a year ago, and that was its fastest rise since November 2023. It was up +1.3% from September alone, its fastest pace since January 2024 on that basis. Spending on all categories except fuel and health costs rose notably in the month. This data adds to the chance the RBA will be raising rates in 2026.Global container freight rates rose +7% last week from the prior week, ending the recent three-week retreats. Outbound rates from China to the US and to Europe rose while trans-Atlantic rates dipped. Overall container freight rates are now -45% lower than year-ago levels. Also rising, and even more sharply were bulk cargo rates, up +18% from a week ago and these rates are now +132% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.10%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4209/oz, and down -US$9 from yesterday.American oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just over US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from yesterday, now at just over 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie though we are down -10 bps at just under 87.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.2, and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,607 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just over +/- 1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news financial markets are absorbing some conflicting American data, and moving sideways today, with the USD easing.There were two services PMIs for the giant US economy out today. The ISM version edged up slightly for November, notable because it was expected to edge down. And the result is the best in nine months for this metric. The continued expansion in both business activity and new orders drove this outcome. Similarly, the S&P Global version for the US service sector reported an expansion although less than in October. Both surveys noted high embedded inflation however.US industrial production rose +0.1% in September from August, following a downwardly revised -0.3% drop in August. This means from a year ago, American industrial production is up +1.6%. Better than a decline but nothing like how the tariff-effects were sold. This activity was far better in the Obama years.But the ADP private sector payrolls report for November brought tough news. Businesses cut -32,000 jobs in November, following an upwardly revised +47,000 gain in October. Analysts were expecting this report to show a +10,000 rise based on ADP's weekly reporting. It is the biggest decline in payrolls since March 2023, led by a -120,000 drop at small businesses. We won't get the official non-farm payrolls report for November until December 17 (NZT), in its delayed restart.And the volume of mortgage applications in the US fell by -1.4% from the previous week in the last week of November to the lowest level in nearly three months. And that happened even though the key mortgage rates fell to a four week low.US vehicle sales were modest in November. They rose from October to 15.6 mln units but that is a long way down from the 16.7 mln in November 2024.Across the Pacific in China, their services sector continues to expand, driven by a sustained increase in new business, though the expansion slowed since October.China's local government debt continues to balloon as the lingering real estate slump has led to decreased income from property sales, pushing local government bond issuance for the year to a record high. The total owed by local governments and the local government financing vehicles that fund their projects now sits at a remarkable ¥134 tln (NZ$33 tln).In the EU, producer prices were little changed in October from September, but from a year ago they have dipped -0.2%. So no inflation pressures from this direction.In Australia, their economy grew less than expected in Q3-2025. Economic activity expanded +0.4% from the June quarter. Markets had expected a +0.7% expansion as it had in Q2-2025. Still, it was the 16th straight quarter of expansion. On a yearly basis, their GDP rose +2.1%, less than forecasts of +2.2% and after a +2.0% growth in Q2.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.07%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4218/oz, and up +US$32 from yesterday.American oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just over US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just under US$663/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday, still at just under 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie though we are unchanged at just on 87.4 AUc. Against the euro we have also held at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.1, and up +20 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$92,535 and up +1.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest, at just on +/- 1.8%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the world is in a slowdown period as the globally large economies show signs of culminating.But we start today with some tough news. The overnight dairy auction saw prices fall to a two year low, the eight consecutive drop in these auctions. Apart from cheddar cheese which made an unexpected large recovery, everything else fell, especially butter which fell to a two year low in NZD and a three year low in USD. Overall, prices retreated +4.3% in USD and -5.4% in NZD. Falls this large have happened before since mid-July 2024. Analysts had already trimmed their current season payout forecasts, and today's event may have them thinking about revisiting them again. Certainly, the trend isn't positive.The OECD says global economic growth to ease to +2.9% in 2026 from +3.2% in 2025 as tariffs, weak trade and geopolitical uncertainty weigh on activity. In the US, growth is projected to slow to +2.0% in 2025 and +1.7% in 2026. For China, they see economic growth of +5% in 2025 and weaken to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. Consumption will be dampened by high precautionary savings and the payback effect of the now winding down trade-in program.For New Zealand they said after contracting in 2024, the economy is projected to expand by +0.7% in 2025, +1.8% in 2026 and +2.8% in 2027. Growth will be supported by lower interest rates, improving household real incomes, buoyant tourism, and firm commodity export earnings. However, weak confidence, high energy costs, easing net immigration, and elevated uncertainty surrounding trade restrictions are expected to remain headwinds to the near-term recovery. Inflation is projected to remain within the central bank's target band, easing towards 2%. The unemployment rate is projected to decline from its peak in 2025.For Australia, they said economic growth is now strengthening and becoming more private-sector-driven. GDP growth is projected to quicken to +2.3% in 2026 and 2027, up from 1.8% in 2025. This is consistent with a gradual closing of the small negative output gap, keeping unemployment low while allowing inflation to remain close to target. Risks are balanced, with downside risks from a greater-than-expected softening of labour market conditions while, on the upside, strengthening disposable incomes could bring a faster acceleration of private consumption.The signals in the US were not as negative today. The RCM/TIPP economic optimism Index recovered in December from is sharp November dip. But to be fair, this only returns it to the below-average levels it reported from March to October.But that rebound was not seen in their logistics sector. The Logistics Manager's Index eased back to its slowest growth in the sector since June 2024. The slowdown is driven by a continued softening of inventory and warehousing metrics but tempered by some expansion in transportation. Warehousing utilisation contracted for the first time in the 9-year history of the index.However, by some accounts the US holiday retail activity was strong, especially for online trade. Shoppers there spent US$14 bln online on Cyber Monday, pushing total online sales over the Thanksgiving weekend to US$44 bln. Spending rose +7.7% during the so-called Cyber Week - the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday - compared with an +8.2% increase to $41 bln last year and above its prior expectations of $43.7 bln.Across the Pacific, Japanese consumer confidence rose sharply in November from October to its best level since April 2024, with all components improving:In the EU, inflation is running in their sweet spot. Euro area consumer price inflation rose to +2.2% in November, up from 2.1% in October and slightly above market expectations of 2.1%. Services inflation accelerated to +3.5% however (from 3.4%) and its highest level since April, while energy prices declined at a slower pace.In Australia, and after a big September surge, October's residential building permit levels were expected to be tame by comparison. But in the event it was negative and the September rise was revised lower. And that meant the annual level of consents to October were lower than a year ago and its first year-on-year retreat since June 2024.The UST 10yr yield is now just under 4.10%, up +1 bp from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4186/oz, and down -US$47 from yesterday. Silver has held up at US$58/oz.American oil prices are -50 USc softer at just under US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$62.50/bbl. And we should note that natural gas prices dropped back yesterday after the prior day surge.The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday, still at just under 57.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -10 bps at under 87.4 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 61.9, and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$90,852 and recovering +6.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high, at just on +/- 3.6%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the global economic expansion is tailing off as we come to the end of 2025.First in the US, we can report that new orders in their factory sector are falling. That is a key factor that has driven the closely-watched ISM manufacturing PMI lower, for a ninth consecutive month, and falling at a faster pace. Survey respondents cite problems with the tariff-taxes, and "trade confusion". And they report high price pressure, and rising The November result is below the deterioration expected. It's a result that has cast a pall over Wall Street today.But the ISM report is only one perspective. The rival S&PGlobal factory PMI reported a November expansion, even a modest rise in new orders. But it also noted that a lot of this 'positive activity' is related to inventory building which won't be sustainable without final customer demand. Financial markets seemed to ignore this alternate PMI.The Canadian factory PMi wasn't positive either for November which reported a marginal contraction. Interestingly, it also reported lower inflation pressures.These two North American factory PMIs feed into a global report that has overall output and new orders rising at slower rates but business optimism rising to a five-month high.In India, their October report for industrial production brought an unexpectedly sharp slowdown, hardly above year-ago levels when +4% year-on-year gains had become the norm for the past two years. We will need to wait for their November result to see if October was just an aberration. They will be hoping so.In Japan, their central bank governor has been speaking and has hinted that a rate hike at their next meeting on December 19 is a live possibility. (see pages 6 & 7.)In China, the alternative PMI to the official version has also slipped in a similar way. The S&PGlobal manufacturing sector PMI shows that conditions deteriorated in November, not by a lot, but certainly going the wrong way. There was no growth in new orders.In Australia, the Melbourne Institute inflation gauge for November rose again and is now further above the RBA's 2-3% inflation target range. Interestingly, while this result is higher, it is lower than the official October CPI rate of 3.8%.After a -2.6% quarter-on-quarter fall in Australian company profits in Q2-2025, they were expected to bounce back in Q3-2025. But in the event they stalled, unchanged, in a disappointing outcome and only +1.1% higher than year-ago levels.And staying in Australia, the Cotality house price tracking rose +1.0% in November, a slight softening from the +1.1% gain in October. Annual growth lifted to +7.1%, with quarterly gains tracking a +13.2% annualised pace. Sydney and Melbourne are the laggards, indicating that affordability has reached its serviceability limits.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.09%, up +7 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4233/oz, and up just +US$15 from yesterday. But silver has surged again to a new record high of US$58.50/oz, up +US$2 from yesterday.American oil prices are -50 USc softer at just over US$59/bbl, while the international Brent price is unchanged at just on US$63/bbl. And we should probably also note that natural gas prices are rising and are now at their highest except for the pandemic period.The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from yesterday, still at just under 57.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at just on 87.5 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 61.9, and up +10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$85,426 and down -7.0%% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high, at just on +/- 4.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are waiting for the first indications of retail sales, as the US and EU economies make their run to the end-of-year holiday season. It is this retail impulse that powers much of the global economy.Also, in the week ahead we will get local and Australian building consent data, and the Aussies will release the Q3-2025 GDP growth rate, expected to be +2.2% from a year agoIn the US, there will be more catch-up official data releases but their non-farm payroll data for November has been delayed until mid-December now. However ADP will release its new weekly update and the Challenger job cut report will still come out on time. There will be PMIs for the US and no-one expects much change in any of this. Of special interest will be the end-of-week release of the UofM sentiment survey. Few see any improvement there either with it hovering around record lows.Elsewhere there will be a raft of PMI and trade and inflation releases from many countries. And the Indian central bank meets and is widely expected to cut its policy rate by -25 bps to 4.25% despite the surging growth. Fast-falling food prices means inflation is seen as under control there.Over the weekend India said their economy expanded by +8.2% in September from the previous year from the previous year and well above the expected +7.3% Q3-2025 rise and above the +7.8% growth rate from Q2-2025. It was the sharpest annual growth rate rise since March 2024. India trimmed its GST rates and increased government spending when they were faced with swingeing US tariffs, and that, along with re-orienting trade has supported consumer confidence and private investment. In late September, they simplified their multi-slab GST system with the rates for most goods falling from 12% or 28%, to 5% and 18%. This change has been a big part of their boost, giving more of an effect than anticipated.China said its official November PMIs were weaker and their tepid expansion has turned into a general but small contraction. The main change was for their services sector, shrinking for the first time in three years and joining the ongoing small contraction in their factory sector. That factory sector has now contracted for eight straight months. Both measures would be a lot worse if they didn't have deflation in their input costs. The private S&PGlobal version isn't expected to vary much from that when it is released later today, although it may be on the more positive side. Either way, these indicators are not pointing to an economy expanding like their GDP claims.Japan said retail sales were +1.7% higher in October than a year ago (real) and that was very much better than the +0.8% expected and the +0.2% in September. And Japanese industrial production rose +1.5% in the year to October, an unexpected second consecutive month of expansion and the October month also came in much better than expected.In South Korea there was a big separation between the two sectors. Industrial production declined, and quite sharply in October, although this largely reverses the big surge in September. And their retail sales took an unexpected surge, up +3.5% from September to be +2.2% higher than a year ago.In Canada, they released their September GDP growth outcome over the weekend and their forecast for October. The picture was mixed and they seem to be settling into a bit of a yo-yo pattern. July was up +0.3% for the month, August down -0.3%, September up +0.2% and October's 'flash' result down -0.3%. There is a tendency for the 'flash' results to be revised higher. Generally their goods-producing sector is marginally weaker while their services sector is mixed. From a year ago, Canada's economic activity is up +1.4%.Early reports of US retail trade over the weekend seem positive, but heavily focused online.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.02%, unchanged from Saturday but down -5 bps from a week ago.The price of gold will start today at US$4218/oz, and up +US$7 from Saturday. And that is a +US$134/oz rise for the week, or +3.2%.Silver surged in Friday US trade to a record high US$56.50/oz. Chinese inventories have dropped to their lowest level in a decade following heavy shipments to London triggered by a supply squeeze. A Comex outage in the US didn't help either.American oil prices are unchanged from Saturday to be just on US$59.50/bbl, while the international Brent price is little-changed at just over US$63/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$58/bbl and US$62.50/bbl, so a +US$1.50 rise in the US but far less internationally.The Kiwi dollar is up another +10 bps from Saturday, now at just under 57.4 USc. A week ago it was at 56.1 USc so a +120 bps rise since then or a +2.1% appreciation. Against the Aussie we are little-changed overnight at just on 87.6 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62, and essentially unchanged from Saturday, up +110 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$91,838 and up +1.5% from Saturday. And it is up +6.9% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low however, at just on +/- 0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.