At Any Rate

Global oil inventories are visibly increasing, yet prices have remained surprisingly stable, with market opinion divided on whether current oil prices are too low or too high. We anticipate prices to stay within current ranges before easing into the high $50s by year-end. The global oil surplus has widened to 2.2 mbd, likely necessitating a price adjustment to prompt a supply-side response and restore balance. Yet, despite supply pressures, three strong market forces are providing a firm floor in the $55-60 Brent ($50-55 WTI) range. Following the July hike, most OPEC members, excluding Saudi Arabia, appear to be producing at or near maximum capacity. The US administration may begin repurchasing oil for the SPR as early as August. Meanwhile, US shale wellhead breakeven prices, assuming zero return, are estimated at around $47 WTI.   Speaker Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 30 May 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4977650-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Meera Chandan and Patrick Locke discuss the latest CIT ruling on tariffs, expectations for the upcoming payrolls report and the recent fiscal-driven rates moves  with implications for the broad dollar and FX markets.   Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 30 May 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4994884-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this podcast Francis Diamond and Khagendra Gupta discuss their thoughts on Euro area rate markets ahead of the June ECB meeting and also discuss thoughts on the long end of EUR and GBP curves.   Speakers: Francis Diamond, Head of European Rates Strategy Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist   This podcast was recorded on 30 May 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4998044-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.   This podcast was recorded on 30 May 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

JPM Strategists Meera Chandan and Jay Barry discuss rising term premium across DM government bond markets, the passage of the House tax bill, rising tariff risks, and what this means for rates and FX markets.   Speakers:  Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy   This podcast was recorded on May 23, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4989466-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4991726-0,  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4989711-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4989990-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4979940-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this podcast Khagendra Gupta and Frida Infante discuss recent developments in Scandinavian interest rate markets and important drivers looking ahead.   Speakers Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist Frida Infante, Rates Strategy    This podcast was recorded on 23 May 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4991719-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Speakers:  Ipek Ozil, Head of U.S. Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy Teresa Ho, Head of U.S. Short Duration Strategy   Ipek Ozil and Teresa Ho discuss the potential SLR reform, its implementation timeline, and its potential impact on the rates markets.   This podcast was recorded on 21 May 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4987601-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speakers:  Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist Ipek Ozil, US Rates Strategy   In this podcast Khagendra Gupta and Ipek Ozil discuss the drivers of US and Eurex futures roll and their outlook for Jun25/Sep25 bond futures rollover.   This podcast was recorded on 19 May 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4971531-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4984252-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

This week, Global FX Strategists Patrick Locke & James Nelligan discuss the FX implications across tariff de-escalation, US fiscal developments, data surprises and central bank meeting risk.   Speakers: Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 16 May 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4983958-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

A better-than-expected US-China trade reprieve and reduced recession probabilities has diminished the downside tail risks to both base metals demand and prices. While prices could continue to run higher in the near-term amid a further extension of Chinese demand front-loading following the 90-day tariff reprieve, we are cautious of the longevity of this extension and still think a more bearish reckoning is likely in 2H25 as all the pull-forward in demand eventually drives a rather significant hangover.   Speaker Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research    This podcast was recorded on 16 May 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4982649-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.   Speakers: Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy Saad Siddiqui,  Emerging Markets Strategist   This podcast was recorded on 15 May 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4985028-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

What are the near-term macro implications for China from the temporary tariff roll-back in Geneva? Can the truce become permanent? What are the spillover effects to the rest of the region? Are the Japan and Korea trade deals imminent? Are currency accords part of these deals? Will the BoJ continue normalizing sooner than October? Sajjid Chinoy, Haibin Zhu, Ayako Fujita and Seokgil Park discuss these questions and more.   This podcast was recorded on May 14, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4978369-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4982620-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4966658-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

US Rates strategists Phoebe White, Teresa Ho, and Ipek Ozil discuss their takeaways from this week's Fed meeting and tariff announcements. With a deterioration in labor market data still likely to drive Fed easing later this year, Treasury yields are expected to fall over coming months. Meanwhile, funding markets remain healthy, and stability has returned to swap spreads.   Speakers: Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy Teresa Ho Gentile, Head of US Short Duration Strategy Ipek Ozil, Head of US Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 9 May 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4981555-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4980064-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4976471-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4980549-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya, Patrick Locke and Octavia Popescu discuss how the USD/Asia view is evolving after record volatility, as well as recent central bank meetings and the US-UK trade deal with the read-through to FX.   Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy Octavia Popescu, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 9 May 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4979940-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss a variety of topics covering thoughts around the impact of de-dollarisation on Euro govie and swap markets, the May BoE meeting and UK rates as well as the Riksbank and Norges Bank meetings this week.     Speakers Francis Diamond, Head of European Rates Strategy Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategist Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist     This podcast was recorded on 09 May 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4981304-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4980024-0 & https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4980028-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Over the past five decades, foreign investors have been steadily accumulating US financial assets, which have reached nearly $57trn as of the end of 2024. Yet, there are signs that sovereign wealth funds and reserve managers appear to be rethinking the risk-reward parameters of holding US assets. Gold could further benefit from this shift. Given its limited supply growth, even relatively small reallocations into the metal can significantly impact prices. A potential shift of just 0.5% of foreign US assets to gold could yield 18% annual returns, taking gold prices toward $6,000 by early 2029.  While hypothetical, this scenario illustrates why we remain structurally bullish gold and think prices have further to run.   Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research  Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research   This podcast was recorded on 9 May 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4971492-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Arindam, Jemmy and Mixo discuss the outlook for Taiwanese and Asian equities more broadly in the wake of historic TWD FX appreciation   This podcast was recorded on May 8, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4975042-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4974799-0and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4975936-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

J.P. Morgan strategists Jay Barry and Meera Chandan discuss latest developments in the Treasury and FX markets in the context of this week's employment data, trade negotiations, and Treasury's May refunding announcement. Speakers: Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy Meera Chandan, Co-Head of Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on May 2, 2025.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4972435-0; https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4971315-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4973610-0. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this week's At Any Rate podcast, our Global FX team addresses the large move in USD/TWD late in the week alongside implications for USD/CNY, Asia FX and global FX more broadly. We also recap recent FX-relevant macro data and central bank decisions, and look ahead to how FX might respond around central bank meetings next week.   Speakers: Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 2 May 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4971315-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speaker:  Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   The oil market seems to be pre-positioning to benefit from the tailwinds of tariff de-escalation, along with shifts towards deregulation and tax cuts. But while the recent de-escalation in trade talks has reduced the probability of a bear case, the ‘Trump put' does not extend to energy, as the administration continues to prioritize lower oil prices to manage inflation. On the demand side, markets may be underestimating the final tariff levels that the Trump administration plans to impose on US imports. On the supply side, OPEC+ will continue to face challenges due to the growth in non-OPEC supply and capacity expansion among some alliance members, especially as a significant portion of the capital expenditure for these expansions is being funded by major international oil companies. Given the diminishing price reaction to a 1 mbd supply cut—from $10 in 2023 to $8 in 2024 and $4 in 2025—and our outlook for $60 oil in 2026, increasing supply to maximize revenue might be the optimal strategy for an oil-producing country.   This podcast was recorded on 2 May 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4966066-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 01 May 2025. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Sajjid Chinoy, Rajiv Batra and Arindam Sandilya discuss the outlook for EM Asia macro, equity and fixed income markets in the wake of the IMF / WB meetings in Washington DC last week This podcast was recorded on Apr 28, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

During this episode, Tracey shares her takeaways from the recently held Geneva Sugar conference and provides an update on the cocoa market after the relative strength in recent grinding data. Speakers: Tracey Allen, Head of Ags Research This podcast was recorded on April 25, 2025.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

After hitting our out-of-consensus upside EUR/USD targets of 1.14-1.16, we now set our sights at 1.20 and discuss the underlying rationale. We also discuss the outlook for the broader euro bloc as well as the main take-aways for FX from our suite of systematic models.   Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Antonin Delair, Global FX Strategy     This podcast was recorded on 25 April 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4966930-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4957718-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Heightened trade policy uncertainty and an apparent shift in OPEC's reaction function prompt a reassessment of our outlook and price projections. Having reached our year-end price forecasts eight months early, we lower our 2025 Brent price forecast to $66 ($62 WTI), down from $73/bbl. Additionally, we adjust our 2026 targets to $58 ($54 WTI), a slight decrease from the previous $61. The price floor is now much lower. Unlike the Biden administration, which limited downside risk by guiding the refill of the US SPR when WTI prices fell below $70, the Trump administration is actively pursuing lower oil prices, with intervention unlikely unless price drops to $50. US shale producers will bear the brunt of these developments, with our projections indicating a cut of 115 rigs starting in July, leading to a contraction in US crude and condensate production in 2026. Consequently, reduced shale activity will weaken US associated natural gas supply, providing support to Henry Hub natural gas prices. While OPEC+ is poised to gain market share in 2025, stabilizing the market at $60 Brent in 2026 would require the alliance not only to reverse current production increases, but to implement further cuts.   Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 17, April 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4953411-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Changing dynamics of natural gas power generation demand are at play for summer 2025, while stronger production response is likely delayed to 2026. We expect up to 1.1 Bcf/day of gas-to-coal switching in summer 2025, however we flag risks of higher prices subject to weather risks and renewable availability. In 2026, we expect increase in production to alleviate such risks and push prices lower. Lastly, we address what the recession risks may mean for the US natural gas market.   Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Otar Dgebuadze, Vice President, Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 11, April 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4936692-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Our Global FX Strategists debrief a volatile week for currency markets - including key takeaways on the policy front and what challenges still lie ahead from a global macro perspective. They also discuss the the details of the recent USD sell-off, as well as expectations for USD/CNH going forward.   Speakers: Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 11 April 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4954262-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Rates strategists Jay Barry, Srini Ramaswamy, Phoebe White, and Ipek Ozil discuss the historic volatility observed in US rates markets over the past week and its drivers. Treasury market liquidity deteriorated, and swap spreads narrowed sharply, but the cash/futures basis and repo rates were relatively stable.   Speakers: Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy Srini Ramaswamy, Global Head of Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy Ipek Ozil, Head of US Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 10 April 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4955364-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In the debut Asia edition of the ‘At Any Rate' podcast, Sajjid Chinoy and Arindam Sandilya discuss the outlook for EM Asia macro and markets in the wake of US reciprocal tariffs. Key topics discussed: How global economic views are evolving post-Liberation Day; channels of transmission to Asian growth and growth forecast changes Asian policymakers' responses; policy tools deployment across different countries Rates and bonds investing Asian FX - how the dollar behavior is shaping FX views; primary risk factors to watch out for This podcast was recorded on Apr 10, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4951821-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4944945-0,  https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4950529-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4952039-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4950917-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

During this commodities edition, Tracey discusses the implications of Liberation Day tariffs for agri markets and the outlook ahead.   Speaker: Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 4, April 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4949701-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

In this week's At Any Rate Podcasts, our strategists Meera Chandan, Saad Siddiqui and Patrick Locke discuss the outlooks for the broad dollar, G10 FX and EM FX following major tariff announcements and subsequent stress in risk markets.   Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Saad Siddiqui, Emerging Markets Research Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 4 April 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4949817-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this podcast, Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss their the reaction of European rates markets to the tariff announcement this week. This podcast was recorded on 04 April 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4949749-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4946392-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the latest developments in US rates markets.   Speakers: Srini Ramaswamy, Global Head of Rates Derivatives Strategy  Ipek Ozil,Senior Derivative Strategist    This podcast was recorded on March 31, 2025.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4942082-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Arindam Sandilya, Meera Chandan and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for currencies in the wake of the auto-sector tariffs and ahead of the big April 2nd tariff announcement by the US administration.   Speakers: Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4946356-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Freezing of Russian foreign assets has triggered a structural change in the demand for gold, and the shift in US foreign policy from Pax Americana to Pax Trumpiana has accelerated and broadened gold ownership. Traditionally, with large above-ground stocks of gold acting as a pool of supply, gold prices have been largely determined by the relative strength of demand. However, to meet this increased demand, a structural response, which so far has been constrained, from the supply side is necessary. After the US abandoned the gold standard in 1971, gold took 38 years to surpass $1,000 in March 2008. It reached $2,000 in August 2020, doubling in 12 years. The pace accelerated, breaking $3,000 on March 14, 2025, in just under five years. With each $1,000 phase taking two-thirds less time, could $4,000 be next?   Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research    This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4924668-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss their latest thoughts on European rate markets, focusing on Euro rates markets into the 2 April tariff announcement, thoughts on SSAs and issuance, Scandi rates following recent CB meetings and UK rates in light of this week's Spring Statement.   This podcast was recorded on March 28, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4942101-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4946392-0.pdf for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 27 March 2025. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden, Virginia Martin Heriz, Lydia Harvey and Alisa Meyers discuss the latest annual report on the EM fixed income sustainable debt asset class. This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4926303-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Rates strategists Francis Diamond and Phoebe White discuss their latest views on global inflation markets. The past few weeks have seen divergent performances in DM inflation breakevens with HICP swaps across the curve rising following the German fiscal announcement whilst other DM breakevens fell. Outside the HICP space, front-end breakevens appear cheap on a valuation basis.   Speakers Francis Diamond, Head of European Rate Strategy Phoebe White, Head of Inflation Strategy   This podcast was recorded on March 21, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4922930-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Arindam Sandilya, Patrick Locke and James Nelligan discuss the FX outlook in the lead up to the pivotal April 2nd tariff announcement.   This podcast was recorded on March 21, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4939751-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4937641-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Speaker:  Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   Oil prices have been trading below their fair value since last September, a trend we attribute to the actions of Oil Vigilantes—a concept suggesting that when challenges arise and oil prices plummet, the OPEC alliance will step in to stabilize the market and bolster prices. Yet, despite Brent prices trading near their lowest levels since December 2021, the OPEC alliance has chosen to proceed with its plan to gradually increase production starting in April. For the alliance to alter its course, significant market imbalances, such as a sudden drop in demand or a substantial increase in supply leading to swelling inventories, would likely be necessary. So far, none of these conditions have materialized—the downgrades in US GDP have been nearly offset by growth upgrades in Europe and China, keeping our demand projections steady. While OECD inventories are 4% above their 2000-2015 levels, they remain 3% below their five-year averages.   This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4937529-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

Srini Ramaswamy and Ipek Ozil discuss the latest developments in US rates markets.   Speakers Srini Ramaswamy, Global Head of Interest Rate Derivative Strategy       Ipek Ozil, US Interest Rate Derivative Strategy   This podcast was recorded on March 18, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4930738-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this week's At Any Rate Podcast, FX Strategists Patrick Locke & James Nelligan take stock of the bearish-USD view, look at new ways of framing the USD response to tariffs, discuss how European FX is responding to recent geopolitical and fiscal news, and finally preview upcoming central bank meetings next week.   Speakers Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on March 14, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4934024-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss their latest thoughts on European rate markets given the seismic shift in German fiscal policy and the repricing in European rates markets against a backdrop of ongoing tariff uncertainty.   Speakers Francis Diamond, Head of European Rates Strategy Aditya Chordia, European Rates Strategist Khagendra Gupta, European Rates Strategist   This podcast was recorded on March 14, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4935267-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Steps continue to be taken toward a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine this year, an outcome that J.P. Morgan Commodities Research has assumed will occur in 2025. Among all commodities under our coverage, natural gas is expected to be impacted the most. As ceasefire negotiations progress, we now incorporate a 15 Bcm/year return of Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe, starting from 2H25. Consequently, we have lowered our price forecast for 2H25, reducing it from 46 EUR/MWh to 40 EUR/MWh. Additionally, our 2026 price forecast has been revised down from 31 EUR/MWh to 25.5 EUR/MWh, with an average price projection for the second half of 2026 approaching 20 EUR/MWh.   Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research  Otar Dgebuadze, European Natural Gas Research   This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4892286-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

Jonny Goulden and Saad Siddiqui discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.   Speakers: Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy Saad Siddiqui,  Emerging Markets Strategist   This podcast was recorded on 13 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4931834-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We discuss implications of the regime-shift in German fiscal policy, moderating US exceptionalism and tariffs on FX markets.   Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy Anezka Christovova, Emerging Markets Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 7 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4925154-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Short Duration strategists Teresa Ho and PJ Vohra provide an update in the equity financing markets and discuss how that is driving growth in the ABCP market.   Speakers Teresa Ho, Head, U.S. Short Duration Strategy Pankaj Vohra, U.S. Short Duration Strategy   This podcast was recorded on March 7, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4902017-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4926314-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

After attending IE Week in London last week, we concluded that the majority of investors likely held long positions in oil and that the pain trade would be to the downside. Since then, Brent oil prices have plunged 6.5%, reaching their lowest since December 2021 on Wednesday, while WTI have fallen nearly 6% over the same period, hitting its lowest point since May 2023. Brent is currently trading about $7 below its fair value, with short-term technical indicators in oversold territory. The market sees a drop in Iranian supply as the only bullish catalyst for prices, an event we do not anticipate, however further depreciation in the US dollar could stabilize and potentially boost oil prices. To recap our view, we expect the price of Brent oil to average $73 this year—largely unchanged from our 2024 Outlook published in November 2023—exiting the year at $64, before slipping to a $61 average in 2026.   Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 7 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4925607-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jay Barry and Meera Chandan discuss the recent US moderation and upcoming tariff announcements, with implications for US rates and the dollar.    Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 28 February 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4922731-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4920384-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.