Podcasts about global commodities

Global Commodities and UK Political Turmoil: Copper Prices Soar and Starmer's Tax U-Turn Guest: Simon Constable Simon Constable reports that copper prices are soaring to $5.18, up 20 percent, due to insufficient supply to meet demand from electric vehicles and artificial intelligence applications. In the United Kingdom, he notes Labour leader Keir Starmer reversed his tax pledge amidst poor productivity forecasts and failing reforms. Constable details the collapse of a high-profile China espionage case, possibly because UK espionage laws remain outdated from before World War I and China was not formally designated a hostile state at the time. He also highlights the troubling advice given by police to Israeli football fans to avoid attending a match due to safety concerns.

Global Commodities and UK Political Turmoil: Copper Prices Soar and Starmer's Tax U-Turn Guest: Simon Constable Simon Constable reports that copper prices are soaring to $5.18, up 20 percent, due to insufficient supply to meet demand from electric vehicles and artificial intelligence applications. In the United Kingdom, he notes Labour leader Keir Starmer reversed his tax pledge amidst poor productivity forecasts and failing reforms. Constable details the collapse of a high-profile China espionage case, possibly because UK espionage laws remain outdated from before World War I and China was not formally designated a hostile state at the time. He also highlights the troubling advice given by police to Israeli football fans to avoid attending a match due to safety concerns.

Nearly 70% of Russian crude production and exports are now under sanctions, raising costs and slowing settlements even though only 5% of exports use US dollars. Russia has relied on offshore traders and new entities to maintain flows, but this is more challenging for major producers like Rosneft and Lukoil. Indian imports may fall by 400 kbd, while Chinese flows should remain steady. Over time, Russia can redirect up to 0.8 mbd to other markets and China could absorb an additional 1 mbd, but profit margins will narrow due to higher costs and deeper discounts. Export volumes are expected to stabilize within a quarter after an initial pause.   Speaker:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on October 24, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5106838-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

With Halloween around the corner, one of the peak seasons for chocolate and confectionery demand, cocoa prices have corrected sharply lower, down -20% MOM and YTD losses are approaching -40%, after historic gains through 2025. This week, the final-quarter demand side data for the 2024/25 season arrived, and the 3Q grind was generally better than expected – albeit still historically weak. It will, however, take some time before consumers start to see the declining input costs of chocolate production hit their hip pocket. But there are strong indications that perhaps the worst of the cocoa market crunch is over, and that industry can plan with a little more confidence than in recent years. Speaker: Tracey Allen, Senior Commodities Strategist, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 17 October 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5096654-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Agri markets have returned to the US trade agenda, following President Trump's commitment to discuss China's absence of US soybean export orders at an upcoming meeting with President Xi. However, it's likely too late for US soybean farmers and exporters to regain market share through the current season, unless the Chinese reserve moves into stockpiling mode. During this episode, Tracey also discusses the agri market outlook including recent fundamental developments and weather risks as the ENSO cycle is transitioning to La Nina. Our September 2025 assessment of global agri commodity fundamentals has found that availability remains at or near multi-year lows in 2025/26 and with markets priced for production perfection, we see upside price risks ahead across much of the complex.    Speakers:   Tracey Allen, Senior Commodities Strategist, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on October 3, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5090092-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5088200-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5094837-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

From inflation to political tensions, Paul Bloxham, Chief Economist for Global Commodities, joins Fred to talk through various factors keeping commodity markets deceptively flat at the moment.Disclaimer: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/101/S9wjzKPStay connected and access free to view reports and videos from HSBC Global Investment Research, just search for #HSBCResearch on LinkedIn or click here: https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/insights/global-research.

A larger than initially expected supply disruption from the world's second largest copper mine, Freeport's Grasberg in Indonesia, will significantly tighten the copper market in the coming quarters and has flipped our forecasted S&D balance to deficits for this year and in 2026.  Much tighter fundamentals and the draw on limited ex-US inventory flips us bullish on copper, seeing prices pushing towards $11,250/mt in the coming quarters.   Speaker: Greg Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Research   This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5089117-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

With the Fed cutting cycle commencing this week, consensus expectations of a straightforward series of quarter-point rate cuts conceals a broad spectrum of potential outcomes. Commodities have rallied 15% on average over previous benign cutting cycles yet have faced much stiffer headwinds over past recessionary-tinged rate-cutting cycles. That being said, the risk of renewed inflation is also high, especially in the US, which will celebrate its 250th anniversary in 2026. Reflation, accompanied by stronger underlying growth momentum, has produced the strongest and most broad-based positive environment for commodities, averaging +1.6% monthly returns. Natasha Kaneva is joined by Greg Shearer to discuss how commodities have performed over previous Fed cutting cycles and what to expect this time around.   Speakers:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Greg Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Research    This podcast was recorded on September 19, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5082200-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We revisit the five conditions outlined in June that are necessary for crude oil prices to start reflecting the expected year-end weakness, and suggest that September could be a turning point for the oil market. Global oil inventories built, but the rise in OECD stocks has been modest by comparison. In response, both Brent and WTI curves have flattened out and turned into a ‘smile.' Refining margins and runs surged in the third quarter, supporting a rebuilding of global product inventories, though stocks in certain regions and products remain below their five-year averages. As a result, refining margins have eased from their previous stratospheric highs, yet continue to hold up well.   Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5078020-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Simon Constable Global Commodities, French Politics, and 9/11 Reflection Simon Constable discusses commodity trends: copper and gold prices surge due to AI demand and monetary fear, while orange juice falls and coffee rises. He covers France's political crisis, with Sebastien Lecornu becoming the sixth Prime Minister under Macron, and local support for Marine Le Pen's National Rally. He also shares a personal 9/11 account from One World Financial Center.1215-1230 1870 PARIS

CONTINUED Simon Constable Global Commodities, French Politics, and 9/11 Reflection Simon Constable discusses commodity trends: copper and gold prices surge due to AI demand and monetary fear, while orange juice falls and coffee rises. He covers France's political crisis, with Sebastien Lecornu becoming the sixth Prime Minister under Macron, and local support for Marine Le Pen's National Rally. He also shares a personal 9/11 account from One World Financial Center. TOULOUSE 

Oil prices have been trading at a premium to fair value over the last two months with Brent's outperformance driven not by geopolitical factors but rather by an lopsided build in global inventories,  with China accounting for two-thirds of the increase. While OECD inventories remain the primary driver in our pricing model, only 25% of this year's global stock build has entered OECD storage, compared to the historical average of 40%, creating a valuation challenge. Mathematically, lower OECD intake raises Brent's fair value, even as global stocks build, resulting in a storage premium. Looking ahead to 2H25, the key questions are how much spare storage capacity China has—currently about 600 million barrels—and whether China will use excess crude to ramp up processing and export more refined products. For now, stock builds are likely to continue outside price-setting Western markets, and despite higher refinery runs, Chinese product exports remain below last year's levels as domestic inventories are replenished. Still, given the market's move toward a sizable surplus and ongoing uncertainty around both the scale and drivers of China's stock build, we are maintaining our current price forecasts.   Speaker:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on September 5, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5066258-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Trade negotiations and tariffs continue to roil commodity markets with the Trump administration warning that India and China will face penalties due to their ongoing purchases of Russian oil while also shocking the copper market this week by exempting refined copper cathode from Section 232 duties. Natasha Kaneva is joined by Greg Shearer to discuss these developments and how they shape the outlook on prices over the balance of the year.   Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research  Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research   This podcast was recorded on August 1, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5044362-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5044343-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Brent and WTI volatility have reached their lowest levels since April, shifting from a bullish to a bearish put bias. As we look ahead to September, we expect a significant increase in volatility, driven by a convergence of both bullish and bearish factors that are set to take place during that month. Notably, Trump's 50-day ultimatum to Russia is set to expire on September 2, just a day before a new European price cap on Russian crude comes into effect on September 3. Additionally, snapback provisions on Iran could be triggered as early as September 1. Meanwhile, 600 kbd of additional summer demand in the Middle East will dissipate in September at exactly the same time as 4-5 mbd of global refining capacity shuts for fall maintenance.   Speaker:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on July 25, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5036481-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

After historic price gains across the cocoa market through 2024, cocoa markets are leading the losses across agri markets through 2025 YTD. The hangover from last year's 4Q highs in cocoa prices has come to roost, and the long-awaited 2Q25 cocoa grind data has confirmed the demand destruction widely reported by the industry over recent months. However, regional disparities have become more notable. The sharp decline in cocoa prices through July falls in line with our view, amid expectations of demand-side destruction. However, we continue to caution that cocoa prices will remain structurally higher for longer.   Speaker Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on July 18, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5027913-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The Trump administration announced plans this week to impose a 50% tariff on US copper imports beginning August 1st.  While the 50% level of copper tariffs exceeds our previous expectations, the timing is aligned with our base case and now solidifies a transitions for the copper market towards a period of payback after copper fundamentals were especially tightened by a very sharp pull-forward in US imports in 1H25.  Natasha Kaneva is joined by Greg Shearer to explore what this means for copper prices and fundamentals over 2H25.   Speakers:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research   This podcast was recorded on July 11, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-502515-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Global upstream oil and gas spending is expected to hit $543 billion this year, a 1.1% decrease from 2024, with reduced capital allocation across all regions except the Middle East. Capital spending in the US shale sector experienced a 3.2% drop in 2024, with forecasts indicating a further 1.9% decline in 2025, despite rising costs from tariffs on steel and other product. Despite conservative capital plans, US oil liquids production is set to rise by 672 kbd in 2025 and 530 kbd in 2026, boosted by substantial hedging during mid-June's oil price spike. Globally, oil liquids supply is projected to grow by 2.3 mbd this year. Speaker:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on July 3, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4939838-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Looking at the latest outlook for the agri markets and where the risks lie ahead of upcoming formative USDA acreage and stocks reports. As we turn to 2H25, and formative stages of the northern hemisphere growing season and South American export window, most agricultural markets under coverage are trading at price levels below producer gross margins, with arguably negative risk premium across grain, sugar and cotton markets. The BCOM Agri Index down -4% YTD. Our June 2025 Fundamental Outlook continues to highlight that supply-side increases are being absorbed by demand, perpetuating the multi-year decline in global agri commodity availability through 2025/26.   Speaker Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Strategy   This podcast was recorded on June 27, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5008151-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

Regime changes in oil-producing countries—whether through leadership transitions, coups, revolutions, or major political shifts—can profoundly affect the country's oil policy, production, and global oil prices, both in the short and long term. Since 1979, there have been eight notable instances of regime change in medium-to-large scale oil-producing nations. While demand conditions and OPEC's spare capacity significantly influence the overall market impact, these events typically result in prices spiking by 76% from onset to peak and averaging a 30% increase, leaving lasting effects. Speakers:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on June 20, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5009862-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speakers:   Greg Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Research This podcast was recorded on June 13, 2025. The surprise increase in US aluminum tariffs to 50% has led to a huge amount of uncertainty across the industry and dominated our conversations at the Harbor Aluminum Summit in Chicago last week. Most participants held a rather sideways outlook on aluminum prices with two-sided corporate flow expected to continue to keep prices in a range though, others were a bit more cautious on future demand over the balance of the year. More confounding is the reaction in US aluminum premiums.  The US Midwest premium (MWP) is barely high enough to cover the boosted tariff alone and well below the 70 c/lb or higher needed to incentivize necessary imports as the market remains uncertain about whether a 50% tariff on aluminum will eventually be walked back or if key exemptions may come through. Eventually, this stasis will have to break (MWP higher) if nothing changes on the tariff front. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5003825-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this episode we will globetrot around key production regions, discussing the risks and outlook across agri market.   Speaker:  Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 6 June 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5001278-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Paul Bloxham, our Sydney-based Chief Economist for Australia, New Zealand and Global Commodities, drops by the London studio to discuss how tariff uncertainties and global growth worries are affecting commodity prices.Disclaimer: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/101/2scKXzMStay connected and access free to view reports and videos from HSBC Global Research follow us on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/hsbcresearch/or click here: https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/insights/global-research.

Global oil inventories are visibly increasing, yet prices have remained surprisingly stable, with market opinion divided on whether current oil prices are too low or too high. We anticipate prices to stay within current ranges before easing into the high $50s by year-end. The global oil surplus has widened to 2.2 mbd, likely necessitating a price adjustment to prompt a supply-side response and restore balance. Yet, despite supply pressures, three strong market forces are providing a firm floor in the $55-60 Brent ($50-55 WTI) range. Following the July hike, most OPEC members, excluding Saudi Arabia, appear to be producing at or near maximum capacity. The US administration may begin repurchasing oil for the SPR as early as August. Meanwhile, US shale wellhead breakeven prices, assuming zero return, are estimated at around $47 WTI.   Speaker Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 30 May 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4977650-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

A better-than-expected US-China trade reprieve and reduced recession probabilities has diminished the downside tail risks to both base metals demand and prices. While prices could continue to run higher in the near-term amid a further extension of Chinese demand front-loading following the 90-day tariff reprieve, we are cautious of the longevity of this extension and still think a more bearish reckoning is likely in 2H25 as all the pull-forward in demand eventually drives a rather significant hangover.   Speaker Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research    This podcast was recorded on 16 May 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4982649-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Over the past five decades, foreign investors have been steadily accumulating US financial assets, which have reached nearly $57trn as of the end of 2024. Yet, there are signs that sovereign wealth funds and reserve managers appear to be rethinking the risk-reward parameters of holding US assets. Gold could further benefit from this shift. Given its limited supply growth, even relatively small reallocations into the metal can significantly impact prices. A potential shift of just 0.5% of foreign US assets to gold could yield 18% annual returns, taking gold prices toward $6,000 by early 2029.  While hypothetical, this scenario illustrates why we remain structurally bullish gold and think prices have further to run.   Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research  Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research   This podcast was recorded on 9 May 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4971492-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speaker:  Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   The oil market seems to be pre-positioning to benefit from the tailwinds of tariff de-escalation, along with shifts towards deregulation and tax cuts. But while the recent de-escalation in trade talks has reduced the probability of a bear case, the ‘Trump put' does not extend to energy, as the administration continues to prioritize lower oil prices to manage inflation. On the demand side, markets may be underestimating the final tariff levels that the Trump administration plans to impose on US imports. On the supply side, OPEC+ will continue to face challenges due to the growth in non-OPEC supply and capacity expansion among some alliance members, especially as a significant portion of the capital expenditure for these expansions is being funded by major international oil companies. Given the diminishing price reaction to a 1 mbd supply cut—from $10 in 2023 to $8 in 2024 and $4 in 2025—and our outlook for $60 oil in 2026, increasing supply to maximize revenue might be the optimal strategy for an oil-producing country.   This podcast was recorded on 2 May 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4966066-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

During this episode, Tracey shares her takeaways from the recently held Geneva Sugar conference and provides an update on the cocoa market after the relative strength in recent grinding data. Speakers: Tracey Allen, Head of Ags Research This podcast was recorded on April 25, 2025.  This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Heightened trade policy uncertainty and an apparent shift in OPEC's reaction function prompt a reassessment of our outlook and price projections. Having reached our year-end price forecasts eight months early, we lower our 2025 Brent price forecast to $66 ($62 WTI), down from $73/bbl. Additionally, we adjust our 2026 targets to $58 ($54 WTI), a slight decrease from the previous $61. The price floor is now much lower. Unlike the Biden administration, which limited downside risk by guiding the refill of the US SPR when WTI prices fell below $70, the Trump administration is actively pursuing lower oil prices, with intervention unlikely unless price drops to $50. US shale producers will bear the brunt of these developments, with our projections indicating a cut of 115 rigs starting in July, leading to a contraction in US crude and condensate production in 2026. Consequently, reduced shale activity will weaken US associated natural gas supply, providing support to Henry Hub natural gas prices. While OPEC+ is poised to gain market share in 2025, stabilizing the market at $60 Brent in 2026 would require the alliance not only to reverse current production increases, but to implement further cuts.   Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 17, April 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4953411-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Changing dynamics of natural gas power generation demand are at play for summer 2025, while stronger production response is likely delayed to 2026. We expect up to 1.1 Bcf/day of gas-to-coal switching in summer 2025, however we flag risks of higher prices subject to weather risks and renewable availability. In 2026, we expect increase in production to alleviate such risks and push prices lower. Lastly, we address what the recession risks may mean for the US natural gas market.   Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Otar Dgebuadze, Vice President, Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 11, April 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4936692-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

With the US and China in a full-blown trade war, will Australia benefit or will the pain flow through to our economy?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

During this commodities edition, Tracey discusses the implications of Liberation Day tariffs for agri markets and the outlook ahead.   Speaker: Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 4, April 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4949701-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

Freezing of Russian foreign assets has triggered a structural change in the demand for gold, and the shift in US foreign policy from Pax Americana to Pax Trumpiana has accelerated and broadened gold ownership. Traditionally, with large above-ground stocks of gold acting as a pool of supply, gold prices have been largely determined by the relative strength of demand. However, to meet this increased demand, a structural response, which so far has been constrained, from the supply side is necessary. After the US abandoned the gold standard in 1971, gold took 38 years to surpass $1,000 in March 2008. It reached $2,000 in August 2020, doubling in 12 years. The pace accelerated, breaking $3,000 on March 14, 2025, in just under five years. With each $1,000 phase taking two-thirds less time, could $4,000 be next?   Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research    This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4924668-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

The Federal Budget will be handed down on Tuesday evening, but with an election campaign still to come, will we get any reform?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Speaker:  Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   Oil prices have been trading below their fair value since last September, a trend we attribute to the actions of Oil Vigilantes—a concept suggesting that when challenges arise and oil prices plummet, the OPEC alliance will step in to stabilize the market and bolster prices. Yet, despite Brent prices trading near their lowest levels since December 2021, the OPEC alliance has chosen to proceed with its plan to gradually increase production starting in April. For the alliance to alter its course, significant market imbalances, such as a sudden drop in demand or a substantial increase in supply leading to swelling inventories, would likely be necessary. So far, none of these conditions have materialized—the downgrades in US GDP have been nearly offset by growth upgrades in Europe and China, keeping our demand projections steady. While OECD inventories are 4% above their 2000-2015 levels, they remain 3% below their five-year averages.   This podcast was recorded on 21 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4937529-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

Herald van der Linde and Fred Neumann are joined by our Sydney-based Chief Economist for Global Commodities, Paul Bloxham, to talk China, tariffs, climate change and record highs for gold. Disclaimer: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/101/jHl7cM9.Stay connected and access free to view reports and videos from HSBC Global Research follow us on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/hsbcresearch/ or click here: https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/insights/global-research.

Steps continue to be taken toward a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine this year, an outcome that J.P. Morgan Commodities Research has assumed will occur in 2025. Among all commodities under our coverage, natural gas is expected to be impacted the most. As ceasefire negotiations progress, we now incorporate a 15 Bcm/year return of Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe, starting from 2H25. Consequently, we have lowered our price forecast for 2H25, reducing it from 46 EUR/MWh to 40 EUR/MWh. Additionally, our 2026 price forecast has been revised down from 31 EUR/MWh to 25.5 EUR/MWh, with an average price projection for the second half of 2026 approaching 20 EUR/MWh.   Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research  Otar Dgebuadze, European Natural Gas Research   This podcast was recorded on 14 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4892286-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

After attending IE Week in London last week, we concluded that the majority of investors likely held long positions in oil and that the pain trade would be to the downside. Since then, Brent oil prices have plunged 6.5%, reaching their lowest since December 2021 on Wednesday, while WTI have fallen nearly 6% over the same period, hitting its lowest point since May 2023. Brent is currently trading about $7 below its fair value, with short-term technical indicators in oversold territory. The market sees a drop in Iranian supply as the only bullish catalyst for prices, an event we do not anticipate, however further depreciation in the US dollar could stabilize and potentially boost oil prices. To recap our view, we expect the price of Brent oil to average $73 this year—largely unchanged from our 2024 Outlook published in November 2023—exiting the year at $64, before slipping to a $61 average in 2026.   Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 7 March 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4925607-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speaker:  Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research   Limited copper supply growth and resilient global demand sets up a tighter forecasted refined copper market in 2H25 and 2026 and keeps us medium-term bullish on prices. While current slack in China and the potential for greater tariff headline volatility over the next month risks a near-term pullback in copper, we ultimately believe global demand will begin to stress copper balances later this year. Moreover, likely excess inventory builds in the US in the coming months ahead of a tariff on copper sets up the potential to leave the rest of the world shorter of copper than expected, driving more significant tightening to copper balances in China and Asia into the summer, setting the stage for our forecasted bullish push higher over 2H25 towards $10,400/mt.   This podcast was recorded on 28 February 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4909053-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

The original JCPOA agreement is set to expire on October 18, 2025, raising the question of whether it makes sense to restore the JCPOA as it was envisioned in 2015 or to draft a new nuclear agreement, with both the US and Iran signaling willingness to negotiate. Economic transformation in the Gulf requires stability and GCC countries have engaged with Iran, reducing support for aggressive US policies. Rebounding US inflation may also influence policy priorities. We forecast Iranian crude production to remain flat at 3.1 mbd in 2025, unchanged from 2024 levels.   Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 21 February 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4906782-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

After the start of the week was dominated by headlines regarding US import tariffs to be imposed on China, Mexico, and Canada, the Trump Administration has seemingly moved on, turning its focus on policies pertaining to Iran and bringing the Russia/Ukraine war to an end. For the global gas market, a negotiated end to the Russia/Ukraine war has the potential for an increase in Russian pipeline gas to Europe. Timing and magnitude of those flows matter and would change the current supportive price regime for the TTF natural gas market, potentially narrowing the arb between global gas and US natural gas prices in the intermediate term even sooner. We will discuss how an increase of Russian pipeline flows to Europe could impact the global natural gas markets.   Speaker:   Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research    This podcast was recorded on 7 February 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4904380-0 or more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

President Trump wants lower energy prices and higher oil and gas production and exports—objectives that seem irreconcilable, given the relatively high cost of producing oil from US shale formations. We estimate that US energy companies need WTI crude prices of $55/bbl and natural gas at $3.50/MMBtu for drilling to be profitable, with $75 and $3.75 required to significantly increase drilling. However, reducing royalties and taxes, easing methane regulations, and streamlining federal drilling permits could lower breakeven costs by $10/bbl for oil and $0.60/MMBtu for gas. On a production-weighted average basis, this would reduce the breakeven point for US oil production from $55 to $45. Ultimately, the impact of these lower costs on US oil production depends on the decisions of the 275 independent companies in the upstream shale sector.   Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research     This podcast was recorded on 31 January 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4895361-0 and for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Since the start of the year, Brent oil has been trading $4-7 above fair value, reflecting risks of reduced Russian and Iranian oil exports. Some risk premium is justified given the substantial figures involved: nearly 20% of the global Aframax fleet currently faces sanctions. Russia has previously defied expectations of supply disruptions, and it is reasonable to assume that its export flows will remain resilient. However, application of sanctions on Russian energy sector as leverage in future negotiations could go either way, indicating that a zero risk premium is not appropriate. The current $4 premium for potential disruption in Iranian oil flows might be overestimated. The market anticipates up to 1.3 mbd drop in Iranian oil exports, but this week's replacement of Iran hawk with Iran dove as Pentagon's next policy chief for the Middle East could signal a shift in the policy.   Speaker:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research     This podcast was recorded on 24 January 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4885062-0 and for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

The weather forecasts for early 2025 in both the US and Europe have turned colder, leading to increased natural gas demand and stress on projected end of season storage levels. While current conditions suggest a bullish outlook, we caution that there is still plenty of winter and time left in the year, creating significant uncertainty regarding price formation over the balance of 2025 in both markets.   Speakers:   Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research  Otar Dgebuadze, Global Natural Gas Research    This podcast was recorded on 17 January 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4888451-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4884963-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   Between December 23 and January 8, oil prices rose over 6%, with Brent hitting $77/bbl and WTI nearly $75/bbl, a three-month high. The gap between realized and forecasted prices, which widened to nearly $10 last year, has now closed, aligning Brent with our $75 fair value for January. This price action is likely driven by concerns over supply disruptions from tightening sanctions, low oil stockpiles, freezing temperatures in the US and Europe, improved sentiment on China's stimulus, cleaner positioning, and CTA short-covering flows. We expect prices to remain stable for most of the year, dipping below $70 in the final quarter, averaging $73 for the year.   This podcast was recorded on 10 January 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4879370-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Having marketed our 2025/2026 Oil Outlook over the last couple weeks, we address the feedback and questions we received from our clients. To recap, Brent crude oil is on track to average $80 per barrel in 2024, which is $3 below our projections from last June. We expect the price to decline to $73 in 2025, remaining largely consistent with our 2024 Outlook published last November, before slipping to $61 in 2026. Surprisingly, our demand outlook did not face significant pushback; however, there was considerable disagreement regarding our supply forecasts, especially concerning production levels in Brazil and the US. Additionally, our perspectives on Iran positioned us as outliers compared to the broader market consensus. Notably, there were no strong opinions expressed regarding the outlook for 2026.   Speakers Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research    This podcast was recorded on December 20, 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4869906-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

  The BCOM Index is projected to deliver a flat return in 2024 and is expected to remain relatively stable in 2025, as declines in energy are offset by further price increases in metals and agriculture. Food and energy components have accounted for 35% of the decline in the headline U.S. CPI print this year, and commodities are anticipated to continue supporting disinflationary trends in 2025. We maintain our multi-year bullish outlook on gold for the third consecutive year and anticipate stronger gains in silver and platinum. Industrial metals have moved to the second position among our most preferred sectors, and we hold a positive view on agricultural commodities relative to the forward curves. We remain neutral on U.S. natural gas, while our perspective on oil has shifted from neutral to outright bearish. Speakers:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research     This podcast was recorded on 6 December 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4853405-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

What if trade tariffs could completely transform global markets? Join me and Sal Gilberti, CEO of Teucrium and a seasoned commodities expert, as we unpack the profound implications of the tariffs instated during the Trump era. From soybeans to seafood, these policies have redefined purchasing trends, sparking a mix of uncertainty and opportunity in the international trade arena. We explore the intricate connections between major economies like the U.S., China, and Brazil, and how niche markets are navigating these shifts.Agricultural subsidies are another pivotal factor shaping the commodity landscape. With corn as a prime example, we delve into the dual forces of legislation and weather that influence market prices and farming choices. As we dissect the impacts of the Renewable Fuels Act and the challenges posed by unpredictable climate conditions, the conversation reveals how such subsidies have led to significant aid payments during tariff disputes. Despite these complexities, the essential role of farming in securing our food systems remains front and center.Lastly, we examine China's formidable influence on global commodities, particularly within agriculture and essential metals. As a powerhouse importer, China's economic trajectory is crucial to market dynamics for soybeans, copper, and other vital resources. Sal and I discuss the strategic investment opportunities that arise, weighing the balance between traditional assets and commodities. This episode offers a comprehensive guide to understanding and investing in the commodity sector, emphasizing diversification and the value of expert insights.DISCLAIMER – PLEASE READ: This is a sponsored episode for which Lead-Lag Publishing, LLC has been paid a fee. Lead-Lag Publishing, LLC does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the episode or make any representation as to its quality. All statements and expressions provided in this episode are the sole opinion of Teucrium and Lead-Lag Publishing, LLC expressly disclaims any responsibility for action taken in connection with the information provided in the discussion. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.Sign up at LearnCorporate.com and take control of your career and finances. Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It's social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world's first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today:

President-elect Trump will return to the White House in January with a commitment to rapidly defeat inflation by lowering energy prices. Trump's energy agenda presents downside risks to oil prices from deregulation and increased US production, while also posing upside risks by exerting pressure on Iran, Venezuela, and possibly Russia to limit their oil exports and revenues. But with US oil supply growth moderating and GCC countries unlikely to offset lost exports, any policies that might raise oil prices will likely defer to Trump's key objective of maintaining low energy prices. Weak oil supply-demand fundamentals may, however, help Trump keep his promise to bring down oil prices. Our view on 2025 has remained largely unchanged over the past year: we look for a large 1.3 mbd surplus and an average Brent of $73, although we expect prices to close the year firmly below $70, with WTI at $64. In 2026, another year of large surpluses will drive Brent prices below $60 by year-end, with an average Brent forecast of $61 and WTI at $57.   Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on 22, November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4840755-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.        

Since late-October, a price premium has been building in the TTF natural gas market, particularly summer 2025. Starting the winter season with lower storage in the ground relative to last year, the European natural gas market has had to contend with a colder than normal November, a huge amount of uncertainty regarding whether Russian gas will flow through Ukraine in 2025, and slower than anticipated commencement timelines for new North American LNG export projects. We will discuss whether this risk premium is justified and how we see risks to the current price relationship between summer 2025 and winter 2025-26.   Speakers: Shikha Chaturvedi, Head of Global Natural Gas Research Otar Dgebuadze, Global Natural Gas Research   This podcast was recorded on 15, November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4842530-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Our US Public Policy and Global Commodities strategists discuss how the outcome of the election could affect energy markets in the US and around the world.----- Transcript -----Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's US public policy strategist.Martijn Rats: And I'm Martijn Rats, Global Commodity Strategist.Ariana Salvatore: Today we'll be talking about a topic that's coming into sharper focus this fall. How will the US presidential election shape energy policy and global energy markets?It's Thursday, September 5th at 10am in New York.Martijn Rats: And 3pm in London.Ariana Salvatore: As we enter the final leg of the US presidential campaign, Harris and Trump are getting ready to go head-to-head on a number of key topics. Healthcare, housing, the state of the economy, foreign policy; and also high on the agenda -- energy policy.So, Martijn, let's set the stage here. Prices at the gas pump in the US have been falling over recent weeks, which is atypical in the summer. What's happening in energy markets right now? And what's your expectation for the rest of the year?Martijn Rats: Yeah, it's a relevant question. Oil prices have been quite volatile recently. I would say that objectively, if you look at the market for crude oil, the crude oil market is tight right now. We can see that in inventories, for example, they are buying large drawing, which tell[s] you, the demand is outstripping supply.But there are two things to say about the tightness in the crude oil market. First of all, we're not quite seeing that tightness merit in the markets for refined products. So, get the market for gasoline, the market for diesel, et cetera. At the moment, the global refining system is running quite hard.But they're also producing a lot of refined product. A lot of gasoline, a lot of diesel. They're pushing that to their customers. Demand is absorbing that, but not quite in a convincing manner. And you can see that in refining margins. They have been steadily trending down all summer.The second thing to say about the tightness and crude is that it's largely driven by a set of factors that will likely to be somewhat temporary. Seasonally demand is at its strongest -- that helps. The OPEC deal is still in place. And as far as we can see in high frequency data, OPEC is still constraining production.And then thirdly, production has been growing in a number of non-OPEC countries. But that absent flows and the last couple of months have seen somewhat of a flat spot in non-OPEC supply growth.Now, those factors have created the tightness that we're seeing currently in the third quarter. But if you start to think about the oil market rolling into the fourth quarter and eventually 2025, a lot of these things going to reverse. The seasonal demand tailwinds that we are currently enjoying; they turn into seasonal demand headwinds in four q[uarter]and one q[uarter] -- seasonally weaker quarters of the year. Non-OPEC production will likely resume its upward trajectory based on the modeling of projects that we've done. That seems likely. And then OPEC has also said that they will start growing production again with the start of the fourth quarter.Now, when you put that all together, the market is in deficit now. It will return to a broadly balanced state in the fourth quarter, but then into a surplus in 2025. Prices look a little into the future. They discount the future a little bitNow, as the US election approaches, investors are increasingly concerned how a Trump versus Harris win would affect energy policy and markets going forward. Ariana, how much and what kind of authority does the US president actually have in terms of energy policy? Can you run us through that?Ariana Salvatore: Presidential authorities with respect to energy policy are actually relatively limited. But they can be impactful at the margin over time. What we tend to see actually is that production and investment levels are reasonably insulated from federal politics.Only about 25 per cent of oil and 10 per cent of natural gas is produced on federal land and waters in the US. You also have this timing factor. So, a lot of these changes are really only incremental; and while they can affect levels at the margin, there's a lag between when that policy is announced and when it could actually flow through in terms of actual changes to supply levels. For example, when we think of things like permitting reform, deregulation and environmental review periods and leasing of federal lands, these are all policy options that do not have immediate impacts; and many times will span across different presidential administrations.So, you might expect that if a new president comes into office, he or she could reverse many of the executive actions taken by his or her predecessor with respect to this policy area.Martijn Rats: And what have Trump and Harris each said so far about energy policy?Ariana Salvatore: So, I would say this topic has been less prevalent in Harris's campaign, unless we're talking about it in the context of the energy transition overall. She hasn't laid out yet specific policy plans when it comes to energy; but we think it's safe to assume that you could see her maintain a lot of the Biden administration's clean energy goals and the continued rollout of bills like the Inflation Reduction Act, which contained a whole host of energy tax credits toward those ends.Now, conversely, Trump has focused on this a lot because he's been tying energy supply to inflation, making the case that we can lower inflation and everyday costs by drilling more. His policy platform, and that of the GOP has been to increase energy production across the board. Mainly done by streamlining, permitting and loosening restrictions on oil, natural gas, and coal.Now, to what I said before, some of that can be accomplished unilaterally through the executive branch. But other times it might require the consent of Congress, and consent from states -- because sometimes these permitting lines cross state borders.So, Martijn, from your side, how quickly can US policy, whether it's driven by Trump or Harris, affect energy markets and change production levels and therefore supply?Martijn Rats: Yeah, like you just outlined, the answer to that question is only gradually. Regulation is important, but economics are more important. If you roll the clock back to, say, early 2021, when President Biden has just took office; on day one, he famously canceled the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline.But if you now look back, at the last four years, start to finish; American oil production, grew more under Biden, than any other president in the history of the United States. With the exception of Obama, who, of course, enjoyed the start of the shale revolution.Production is close, to record levels, which were set just before COVID, of course. So, in the end, the measures that President Biden put in place, have had only a very limited impact on oil production. The impact that the American president can have is only -- it's only gradual.Ariana Salvatore: So, as we've mentioned, expanding energy development has been a massive plank of Trump's campaign platform. And listeners will also remember that during his term in office, he supported energy development on federal land. If Trump wins in November, what would it mean for oil supply and demand both in the US and globally?Martijn Rats: Admittedly, it's somewhat of a confusing picture. So, if you look at oil supply, you have to split it in perhaps a domestic impact and an international impact. Domestically, Donald Trump has famously said recently that he would return the oil industry to “Drill baby drill,” which is this, this shorthand metaphor for, abundant drilling in an effort to significantly accelerate oil production.But as just mentioned, there is little to be unleashed because during President Biden, the American oil industry hasn't really been constrained in the first place.A lot of American EMP companies are focused on capital discipline. They're focused on returns on free cashflow on shareholder distributions. With that come constraints to capital expenditure budgets that probably were not in place several years ago with those CapEx constraints, production can only grow so fast.That is a matter of shareholder preference. That is a matter of returns. And regulation can change that a little bit, but not so much.If you look at the perspective outside the United States, it is also worth mentioning that in the first Trump presidency, President Trump famously put secondary sanctions on the export of crude oil from Iran. At the time that significantly constrained crude oil supply from Iran, which in 2018 played a key role in driving oil prices higher.Now, it's an open question, whether that policy can be repeated. The flow of oil around the world has changed since then. Iranian oil isn't quite going to the same customers as it did back then. So, whether that policy can be replicated, remains to be seen. But whilst the domestic perspective -- i.e. an attempt to grow production -- could be interpreted as a potential bearish factor for the price of oil, the risk of sanctions outside the United States could be interpreted as a potential bullish risk for oil.And this is, I think, also why the oil market struggles to incorporate the risks around the presidential election so much. At the moment, we're simply confronted with a set of factors. Some of them bearish, some of them bullish, but it remains hard to see exactly which one of them played out. And, at the moment they don't have a particular skew in one direction.So, we're just confronted with options, but little direction.Ariana Salvatore: Makes sense. So, I think that makes this definitely a policy area that we'll be paying very close attention to this fall. I suppose we'll also both be tuning into the upcoming debate, where we might get a better sense of both sides policy plans. If we do learn anything that changes our views, we'll be sure to let you know.Martijn, thanks for taking the time to talkMartijn Rats: Great speaking with you, Ariana.Ariana Salvatore: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.