Podcast appearances and mentions of arthur kroeber

The world's top economic and financial authorities descend on Washington this week for the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings. The focus this year is overwhelmingly on trade, as US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs hang over the event. And nowhere are levies more painful than in China, where the highest rates threaten economic growth. Arthur Kroeber, founding partner of research consultancy Gavekal Dragonomics and author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know, joins Katia Dmitrieva in Washington for a discussion about the new trade era, China's economic travails and how the trade stalemate with the US could end.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I saw a brilliant cartoon the other day which had America's founding fathers sitting around a table writing up the country's constitution - and they had agreed that the US wouldn't have a king, but they were thinking about having a drama queen instead. And after what we saw overnight, I think it would be pretty hard to argue that the current US president is anything but a drama queen. He's also an economic vandal. Donald Trump has announced that he's pausing his global trade tariffs for 90 days for most countries, but upping the ante with China. Increasing the tariff on Chinese goods going into the United States to 125%. And as Chinese political scientist Shi Yihong is saying today, this is going to mean that trade between China and the US will be “mostly destroyed”. American economist Arthur Kroeber agrees, saying that what's happening right now shows that Trump is committed to ending US trade with China. Which equates in my mind to one thing: economic vandalism. And if you want proof, consider what America's Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is saying. He says this flip-flop was Trump's plan all along He says: “This was his strategy all along, and that you might even say that he goaded China into a bad position and they responded. They have shown themselves to the world to be the bad actors, and we are willing to cooperate with our allies and with our trading partners who did not retaliate. It wasn't a hard message: don't retaliate, things will turn out well.” How chilling is that? If Trump planned this all along, it shows how comfortable he is causing economic chaos around the world. Maybe that shouldn't surprise me. Which is why I mentioned that cartoon earlier. All this tariff stuff has been the work of a drama queen, but I reckon that this development overnight takes things next level. When we've got the head of the Treasury in the States saying that this was Trump's plan all along —to slap countries with tariffs, see which ones retaliate, and then give the countries which don't retaliate some sort of 90-day “get out of jail card”— it's economic vandalism. It's clear now too that Donald Trump wants the world to cower in fear of him. And it's working. Not that I expect or want our government to go ape at him and his administration, because I don't think that would achieve anything, but the careful language we're hearing from the likes of Nicola Willis shows that even our government is walking on eggshells. Back in November, when Trump won the presidential election, political commentator Matthew Hooton said the US was entering “its most dangerous period since 1861, the start of the civil war” and that the world was entering its most dangerous phase since World War II. He said back in November: “The world enters its most dangerous period since World War II, with Trump threatening to launch a global trade war and collapse the World Trade Organisation.” Matthew Hooton said that during his last term, Trump had at least some people in his circle who could be relied on to keep his most extreme tendencies in check. He said: “There are no such people around him this time. Nor is he constrained by the need to worry about re-election.” Hence, his conclusion that we were entering very dangerous times. And I think maybe he's turned out be right. And I'm starting to think that maybe I was wrong. Because when I read his article in the NZ Herald I said that, on the basis of the world not falling apart last time he was president, I wasn't going to buy into the hysteria. I did say I could be proven wrong. And going by the way the world looks today, I may have just been proven wrong. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Officials have taken dramatic steps to boost confidence and growth in the world's second-largest economy. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal, explains why he sees the People's Republic turning into a high-tech, low-growth country. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt-out of targeted advertising. 

One morning in the 2010s, a rural midwestern farmer called the cops. There was a guy in a suit sniffing around a field near town. A big SUV dropped him off. And the story of how the man got there? That can tell us a lot about Xi Jinping's past, present, and future. China's seen incredible growth over the last 50 years — and with that, major changes in the country's diet and agriculture. With 1.4 billion people to feed and a party narrative to upkeep, President Xi Jinping is pushing the country to invest in its own food security. During a time when tension between the US and China are rising, we look at how Great Power Competition is unfolding in America's cornfields. GUESTS: Sue-Lin Wong, The Economist; Wendong Zhang, Cornell University; Arthur Kroeber, Gavekal Dragonomics ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: The Prince, The Economist How Has China Maintained Domestic Food Stability Amid Global Food Crises?, World Economic Forum China's Interests in US Agriculture: Augmenting Food Security through Investment Abroad, US-China Economic and Security Review Commission

Vil Kina oppnå den samme høye veksten som landet har hatt de siste tiårene? Arthur Kroeber ved Gavekal i Hong Kong ser flere utfordringer, blant annet at Kinas teknologistrategi vil være vanskelig å gjennomføre med et autokratisk, hierarkisk politisk system. Dette er fjerde episode i en serie på fire episoder om Kina og Sørøst-Asia.

An hour long discussion with Arthur Kroeber - founder of China focused Gavenkal Dragonomics research service - where we discuss short and longer term challenges of China's economy given both domestic structural change and big geopolitical shifts. Arthur covers the implications for multinational corporations and what adaptation strategies they need to think about to maintain business continuity and supply chains.Arthur R. Kroeber is a partner and head of research at Gavekal, a Hong Kong-based economic research firm, and founder of its China-focused Gavekal Dragonomics research service. Before establishing Dragonomics in 2002, he spent fifteen years as a financial and economic journalist in China and South Asia. He is adjunct professor of economics at the NYU Stern School of Business, a senior non-resident fellow of the Brookings-Tsinghua (Ching-Hua) Center in Beijing, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a member of the National Committee on US-China Relations. His book China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know (2nd edition 2020) is published by Oxford University Press.

China regards its money as an ambassador to the world. It would like the yuan - or renminbi - to be held in just as much esteem as the euro, or even the US dollar; in other words, a truly global currency. Yet there are major barriers to the internationalisation of the renminbi, including its limited convertibility and China's cautious approach towards financial openness. Arthur Kroeber, a founding partner of Gavekal Dragonomics, offers his perspective in this conversation with podcast host, Duncan Bartlett.   China In Context: Episode 62 Broadcast date: 26 April, 2022

BEIJING -- In Episode #10 (Segment 1 of 2) of his podcast, Thomas Fraser talks with Arthur Kroeber, Founding Partner and Head of Research at Gavekal Dragonomics, about China's economy and opportunities China's transition to a more service-orientated economy will create.  Kroeber is the author of the excellent book "China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know."Kroeber's book provides an excellent overview of China's economy for business leaders, policymakers and others wanting to understand where China's economy is today and how China's growth model is changing.To learn more about the Tom Fraser Podcast and to listen to additional episodes, please go to www.tlfraser.com/podcasts.This podcast was originally published at www.tlfraser.com on August 25, 2016.The information provided in this podcast does not constitute the provision of legal, tax or investment advice.  This information is provided for general informational purposes only.Copyright 2015-2021 Thomas L. Fraser.  All Rights Reserved.   

BEIJING -- In Episode #10 (Segment 2 of 2) of his podcast, Thomas Fraser talks with Arthur Kroeber, Founding Partner and Head of Research at Gavekal Dragonomics, about China's economy and opportunities China's transition to a more service-orientated economy will create.  Kroeber is the author of the excellent book "China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know."Kroeber's book provides an excellent overview of China's economy for business leaders, policymakers and others wanting to understand where China's economy is today and how China's growth model is changing.To learn more about the Tom Fraser Podcast and to listen to additional episodes, please go to www.tlfraser.com/podcasts.This podcast was originally published at www.tlfraser.com on August 25, 2016.The information provided in this podcast does not constitute the provision of legal, tax or investment advice.  This information is provided for general informational purposes only.Copyright 2015-2021 Thomas L. Fraser.  All Rights Reserved.

China's role in global affairs is more important - and more complex - than ever. From geopolitics and economics to the battle against climate change, the country's participation in global issues presents investors with opportunities but also requires unwavering attention. Central to any analysis must be an understanding of how China hopes to portray itself and why the country seeks certain roles on the world stage. To discuss China's place in the world, Paras Anand, Global Chief Investment Officer for Asia Pacific, is joined by Louis-Vincent Gave, Founder and CEO of Gavekal, a leading independent provider of global investment research. With additional contributions from Arthur Kroeber, Gavekal's Head of Research, Velislava Dimitrova, a Fidelity portfolio manager, and Alice Li, an analyst based in Fidelity's Hong Kong office. Read more at fidelityinternational.com. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China's role in global affairs is more important - and more complex - than ever. From geopolitics and economics to the battle against climate change, the country's participation in global issues presents investors with opportunities but also requires unwavering attention. Central to any analysis must be an understanding of how China hopes to portray itself and why the country seeks certain roles on the world stage. To discuss China's place in the world, Paras Anand, Global Chief Investment Officer for Asia Pacific, is joined by Louis-Vincent Gave, Founder and CEO of Gavekal, a leading independent provider of global investment research. With additional contributions from Arthur Kroeber, Gavekal's Head of Research, Velislava Dimitrova, a Fidelity portfolio manager, and Alice Li, an analyst based in Fidelity's Hong Kong office. Read more at fidelityinternational.com.   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A Fundação FHC e o CEBRI realizaram um debate online com Arthur Kroeber (economista e diretor da Gavegal Dragonomics) e Marcos Caramuru de Paiva (Conselheiro Internacional do CEBRI - Centro Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais e Ex-Embaixador do Brasil na China). Arthur Kroeber mostrou sua visão sobre o impacto Covid-19 na China e na economia mundial e traçou cenários para o futuro imediato e de médio prazo, considerando as respostas dadas até aqui pelo governo da China, dos EUA e da Europa. A apresentação de Kroeber foi comentada por Marcos Caramuru.

On China (Henry Kissinger), China's Economy (Arthur Kroeber)

In this podcast, a joint production of CSIS’s CogitAsia and the China Innovation Policy Series (CIPS), we explore how China’s tech innovation drive fits into the country’s wider economic picture. To gain a sense of whether the Chinese government’s initiatives to develop new technology are succeeding, Scott Kennedy, co-leader of the China Innovation Policy Series project at CSIS, joined China macroeconomist Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Gravekel Dragonomics, an economic research consultancy based in Beijing, to discuss the issue. Kroeber emphasizes the largely positive results from China’s multi-pronged drive to promote high tech. He describes the rationale behind China’s technological innovation drive, highlights the success of leading Chinese Internet companies, and evaluates what options countries like the United States have to respond.     Hosted by Will Colson. Audio edited by Liz Mayes. Written and produced by Jeffrey Bean. . hereTo learn more, visit our China Innovation Policy Series site .here, China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs To KnowListeners can see more about Arthur Kroeber’s book

John Fraher, Bloomberg's executive editor for international government, discusses Bloomberg's Pessimist's Guide to 2017. Then, Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz speak with Irene Finel-Honigman, an adjunct professor at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, about the impact of civil unrest on markets. Also, Arthur Kroeber, a fellow of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy, says the U.S. has more to lose in a trade war with China than China. Finally, Shelly Banjo, a Bloomberg Gadfly columnist, discusses why retailers should fear Amazon's push into grocery stores.

Join Dr. Carlos as he discusses China's economy with Arthur Kroeber. China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know® is a concise introduction to the most astonishing economic growth story of the last three decades. In the 1980s China was an impoverished backwater, struggling to escape the political turmoil and economic mismanagement of the Mao era. Today it is the world's second biggest economy, the largest manufacturing and trading nation, the consumer of half the world's steel and coal, the biggest source of international tourists, and one of the most influential investors in developing countries from southeast Asia to Africa to Latin America.China's growth has lifted 700 million people out of poverty. It has also created a monumental environmental mess, with smog-blanketed cities and carbon emissions that are a leading cause of climate change. Multinational companies make billions of dollars in profits in China each year, but traders around the world shudder at every gyration of the country's unruly stock markets. Most surprising of all, its capitalist economy is governed by an authoritarian Communist Party that shows no sign of loosening its grip.How did China grow so fast for so long? Can it keep growing and still solve its problems of environmental damage, fast-rising debt and rampant corruption? How long can its vibrant economy co-exist with the repressive one-party state? What do China's changes mean for the rest of the world? China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know® answers these questions in straightforward language that you don't need to be an economist to understand, but with a wealth of detail drawn from academic research, interviews with dozens of company executives and policy makers, and a quarter-century of personal experience. Whether you're doing business in China, negotiating with its government officials, or a student trying to navigate the complexities of this fascinating and diverse country, this is the one book that will tell you everything you need to know about how China works, where it came from and where it's going.About the AuthorArthur R. Kroeber is founding partner of Gavekal Dragonomics, a China-focused economic research consultancy he established in Beijing in 2002 after 15 years as a freelance financial journalist in Asia, and editor of its flagship publication China Economic Quarterly. He is also head of research at the firm's parent company Gavekal, where he advises financial, corporate and government clients on economic and political developments in China. Kroeber is a senior non-resident fellow of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy, adjunct professor at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, and a member of the National Committee on US-China relations. He lives in Beijing and New York.

In this episode of Sinica, we present an in-depth interview with Arthur Kroeber, the founding partner and head of research for Gavekal Dragonomics, an independent global economic research firm, and the editor-in-chief of its journal, China Economic Quarterly.  Arthur's new book, China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know, superbly explores China's astonishing expansion during the "reform and opening up" period and the challenges the country now faces as growth slows. He provides a clear-eyed take on a huge range of subjects, from the internationalization of the renminbi to local debt to the way China's state-owned enterprises function (or don't). The book is a refreshing antidote to much of the commentary in the media, where "The Conventional Wisdom" we discuss in the podcast consists of doomsayers predicting China's imminent collapse and Pollyannas who see the country as an unstoppable economic juggernaut. We love feedback: Please write to sinica@supchina.com. Recommendations: Jeremy: The Silk Road: A Very Short Introduction by James A. Millward Arthur: The Ibis Trilogy by Amitav Ghosh Kaiser: Soulstealers: The Chinese Sorcery Scare of 1768 by Philip A. Kuhn — Kaiser and Jeremy

9 June 2016 With the right economic policies China could continue to grow at a rate of about five per cent per year for another decade says Arthur Kroeber of Gavecal Dragonomics, an independent research firm in Beijing. But the country would have to cut SOEs by up to a half and push through financial reforms. However, Xi Jingping’s economic policies lack clarity and direction. China still depends too much on stimulus measures and credit to keep the economy going. Little change is in the offing with the 19th party congress already looming large.

On August 24, 2015, global financial markets plunged following China’s “Black Monday,” the largest sell-off in the history of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Following a burst in the stock market bubble in June 2015, trillions of dollars were erased from the stock index throughout the summer, with the largest day of losses hitting on Black Monday. The sheer scale of the stock market crash, accompanied by weak manufacturing data and an unexpected devaluation of China’s currency exacerbated long held concerns by some economists that China’s economic development was unstable. In his new book, China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know, Arthur Kroeberargues that many of these fears are exaggerated. To understand the context of the current economic situation, Dr. Kroeber describes how the Chinese economy has evolved since 1979 and the initial reforms of the Deng Xiaoping era. The Communist Party of China has effectively managed the transformation of the economy. The Chinese leadership was able to learn from the examples of other East Asian “development states.” While there are considerable similarities, Dr. Kroeber notes that there are also profound differences between China’s development model and those of Japan and South Korea; the similarities and the differences have a profound impact on the prospects for China’s economy. As Western economies continue to struggle to rebound from the global financial crisis of 2008, worldwide economic progress has been dependent on China’s unprecedented economic successes. Some analysts fear that systemic flaws in China’s economy will undermine China’s economic potential. Join us as Arthur R. Kroeber discusses the Chinese economy as it moves in a consumer-driven direction amid demographic and environmental challenges, with the National Committee on May 18, in New York City. Arthur R. Kroeber is head of research at Gavekal, a financial-services firm based in Hong Kong, founder of the China-focused Gavekal Dragonomics research service, and editor of China Economic Quarterly. He divides his time between Beijing and New York. Before founding Dragonomics in 2002, he spent fifteen years as a financial and economic journalist in China and South Asia. The National Committee on U.S.-China Relations is the leading nonprofit nonpartisan organization that encourages understanding of China and the United States among citizens of both countries.  

China's economic growth in the last 30 years has been impressive—yet cracks have started to form, requiring tough decisions from the government and the private sector. While the country still presents numerous investment opportunities and provides multibillion-dollar profits to global companies, its economy is plagued by corruption, market volatility, and mounting debt. What does the future hold for China and companies operating inside its border? Drawing from a wealth of academic research and interviews with dozens of company executives and policymakers, Arthur Kroeber details what everyone needs to know about China's economy.

In this episode of China Money Podcast, guest Arthur Kroeber, founding partner of GK Dragonomics, talks with our host Nina Xiang, about why he's less optimistic about China's growth in the next couple of years, how the alarmist headlines about capital outflows from China is overdone, and why the 7% number that everyone believes to be the minimum rate required to provide sufficient employment for China's labor force is total nonsense. Listen to the full interview in the audio podcast, watch an abbreviated video version or read an excerpt below. Q: Lately, there have been some media stories on capital outflows, or even capital flight, out of China. How concerned are you about this possibility? A: I'm not terribly concerned for two reasons. One is that the Chinese government still maintains significant capital control measures. There have been some talks that the government will eliminate these controls in the next few years, but I think it's unlikely. The broader point is that China has been used to having one-way capital flows for a long time. Everybody wanted to get their money into China, no one wanted to take it out. Many people thought it's a big problem for the world that China was like a Hotel California for capital: you could check in, but you could never check out. But now we are seeing capital flows in both ways, and with various volumes. Foreign reserve accumulation slowed down dramatically. Lately, we saw some net capital outflows. But this is part of the normal process of the economy adjusting from rapid economic growth on intensive investments to a slower one that's more consumer-driven. Q: What are the specific capital control measures in place right now? A: It's very difficult for Chinese institutions and individuals to move money out of China. Any outflow is regulated under the qualified domestic institutional investor program (QDII) and limited by an annual quota. For individuals, it's close to impossible to move large amounts of money offshore. Chinese companies have been going out to do mergers and acquisitions or greenfield investment overseas. The outward foreign direct investment now runs somewhere between US$50 billion to US$80 billion a year. These are regular capital outflows for every economy. The only concern is if people lose confidence in the economy and everyone takes his or her money out. But that's a very remote possibility. Q: During the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, some Southeast Asian countries had foreign debt-to-GDP ratios well above 100%. What are some factors that caused the Asian Financial Crisis but are not existent in China right now? A: I think the similarity between the two is that both had incredibly high investment-led growth for a long time. But the differences are huge. First of all, the Asian economies were mainly running current account deficits in the 1990s. China has been running a very sustained current account surplus. Secondly, the Asian countries did a lot of external borrowings, while China has basically none. Finally, China's domestic financial system has a lot of liquidity across diversified assets. That's not the case back in 1997. Q: What would make you become concerned about capital outflow getting out of control in the future? A: On the domestic front, if you see a continued rapid increase of credit-to-GDP ratio, then I'd be concerned that the foundation of China's growth is unstable. That could lead to economic malaise and make people want to put money elsewhere. The second concern is if the government relaxes capital control measures too early. Historically, some sort of financial turbulence usually follows the freeing of interest rates. China is in the process of liberalizing its interest rates now. Any problem caused by interest rate liberalization can be contained with capital control in place. But if capital control is loosened too early, that could lead to problems.

The term, “Made in China” has come under a lot of scrutiny as of late. The latest worldwide toy recall has created huge image problems for Chinese-manufactured goods. Today on Lawyer 2 Lawyer, we will discuss the toy recall, the effect of the recall on the global economy and the fate of global outsourcing. Law.com bloggers and co-hosts, J. Craig Williams and Robert Ambrogi welcome Professor Peter Dean, from Hong Kong Polytechnic University School of Design and a former US toy industry executive and Arthur Kroeber, managing director and head of research at Dragonomics out of Beijing, to discuss this hot topic.