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4 episodes with gavekal
3 episodes with gavekal
2 episodes with gavekal
2 episodes with gavekal
2 episodes with gavekal
2 episodes with gavekal
2 episodes with gavekal
2 episodes with gavekal
2 episodes with gavekal
Trade between the two economies is collapsing. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Christopher Beddor of Gavekal explains where relations could be repaired, where they could deteriorate further, and why Washington and Beijing may tacitly agree on the need to pull apart. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt-out of targeted advertising.
Louis-Vincent Gave is the Founding Partner and CEO of GaveKal, one of the world's leading independent providers of macro research, and GaveKal Capital, a manager of $2.7 billion in assets. Louis launched GaveKal alongside his father in 2000 and has become a go-to source for creative research on global economics and asset allocation, particularly in China. He recently penned CYA as a Guiding Principle, dissecting the consequences of Western government responses to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He joined me to discuss the key takeaways. Our conversation starts with Louis' background and founding of GaveKal, and turns to the potential second order impacts of freezing reserves, seizing oligarch assets, end of Swiss neutrality, energy prices, and military spending. We close discussing how the situation may affect China. Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership
UnHerd's Freddie Sayers sits down with Wolfgang Munchau and Anatole Kaletsky.UnHerd's Freddie Sayers holds an emergency roundtable with economic commentator and director of the Eurointelligence blog, Wolfgang Munchau, and Gavekal's chief economist, and author of Capitalism 4.0, Anatole Kaletsky.Trump's tariff trade war is impacting global stock markets. Has the economic world order been upended? Is UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer right that this marks the ‘end of globalisation'? Are governments teetering on the edge of a 2008-style recession, and what do they do next? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Selon toi, l'État français gère-t-il bien nos finances ? Dis-nous en commentaire !Aujourd'hui, nous recevons Charles Gave, essayiste, financier et entrepreneur français, dirigeant fondateur de Gavekal, société de conseil financier, et président du think tank libéral et conservateur l'Institut des libertés.On compte sur votre bienveillance dans les commentaires, et surtout, bonne vidéo !DANS CETTE ÉMISSION :00:00 : Vrai/Faux03:02 : Qu'est-ce que la dette et le déficit public ?04:26 : On ne vit pas en démocratie ?06:24 : Notre dette est-elle vraiment grave ?21:34 : L'argent gouverne tout aujourd'hui ?26:41 : Il faut en finir avec l'Union européenne ?29:40 : L'immigration, une chance pour l'économie ?37:57 : Quelles seraient vos 3 mesures économiques ?43:45 : Une idée qui vous ferait passer pour un fou ?45:07 : Le futur, c'est l'Asie ?47:46 : Quel modèle européen ?51:59 : Élection de Trump : une bonne chose pour l'économie mondiale ?56:14 : Votre France idéale ?58:01 : Le mot de la fin.Retrouvez "✏️ LES NOTES DE LA RÉDACTION" en commentaire épinglé.Charles Gave - Institut des Libertés sur les réseaux :► Insta : https://www.instagram.com/charlesgave_/?hl=fr► X : https://x.com/IdLibertes?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor► Youtube : https://www.youtube.com/@CharlesGaveIDLNOUS RETROUVER :► Antonin - https://www.instagram.com/antothecreatorr/► Wallerand - https://www.instagram.com/wallerandmb/► Jules - https://www.instagram.com/julescommecesar/► Sixtine - https://www.instagram.com/sixtinemb/Donne ton avis en commentaire !La majorité de nos émissions sont tournées dans notre studio à Paris.Si vous aussi, vous voulez tourner des discussions, émissions ou des formats plus corporate, sachez que nous mettons en location le studio dans lequel on tourne. Vous aurez à votre disposition des micros et des caméras professionnels, gérés par des professionnels.Si vous êtes intéressés, vous pouvez envoyer un mail à studio@lecrayonmedia.frÀ respecter dans les commentaires :- Pas d'insultes ou de propos répréhensibles par la loi- Écrire dans un français correct et compréhensible- Respecter les invités et les autres personnes dans les échangesEn cas de non-respect, votre commentaire sera supprimé.Le Crayon est sur tous les réseaux !► Instagram : https://www.instagram.com/lecrayonmedia/► Tiktok : https://www.tiktok.com/lecrayonmedia/► Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/lecrayonmedia/► Articles : https://lecrayon.kessel.media/► LinkedIn : https://www.linkedin.com/company/le-crayon-politique/► Podcasts : https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/le-crayon► X : https://twitter.com/lecrayonmedia/► Notre site : https://www.lecrayongroupe.fr/
Our guest this week is Louis-Vincent Gave. Louis is founding partner and CEO of Gavekal Group, a research and financial services firm based in Hong Kong. After graduating from Duke University and studying Mandarin at Nanjing University, Louis joined the French Army, then went on to become a financial analyst at Paribas, first in Paris, then in Hong Kong. In 1999, he launched Gavekal with his father, Charles, and Anatole Kaletsky. Louis is the author of seven books, the latest being, Avoiding the Punch: Investing in Uncertain Times.BackgroundBioAvoiding the Punch: Investing in Uncertain TimesClash of Empires: Currencies and Power in a Multipolar WorldToo Different For ComfortA Roadmap For Troubling TimesThe End Is Not NighOur Brave New WorldSimple Economic Concepts For Financial MarketsChinaGavekal Dragonomics“China Enters the AI Chat (With Louis-Vincent Gave)” by Liz Ann Sonders and Kathy Jones, schwab.com, Feb. 14, 2025.“China Has ‘Leapfrogged' the West | Louis Vincent Gave,” Wealthion, youtube.com, Jan. 28, 2025.“China Overtaking the US in Strategic Sectors, Says Louis-Vincent Gave,” Financial Sense, Oct. 22, 2024.“Is DeepSeek China's Sputnik Moment?” by John Cassidy, The New Yorker, Feb. 3, 2025.XPENG“Xiaomi Automobile Super Factory, Producing One SU7 Every 76 Seconds,” Discover China Auto, youtube.com.“The Evergrande Crisis Explained: Should Investors Worry?” by Lewis Jackson, Morningstar.com, Sept. 22, 2021“China & the American Imperial Economy | Louis-Vincent Gave,” Hidden Forces podcast Episode 364, hiddenforces.io, May 14, 2024.“The 3 Warren Buffett Stocks to Buy After Berkshire Hathaway's New 13F Filing,” by Susan Dziubinski, Morningstar, Nov. 14, 2024Tariffs“Are US Tariffs A Tool Or A Goal?” by Louis-Vincent Gave, Evergreen Gavekal, Jan. 9, 2025.Asia and Emerging Markets“Louis-Vincent Gave—Prepare for a Boom in Emerging Markets,” by Robert Huebscher, Vettafi Advisor Perspectives, May, 8, 2023.BRICS Summit 2024Twilight of the Gods: War in the Western Pacific, 1944-1945, by Ian W. Toll, W.W. Norton & Company, 2020.
In today's episode, Liz Ann Sonders speaks with Louis-Vincent Gave, CEO of Gavekal Research. Louis discusses the unique market dynamics of the past year, focusing on the concentration of U.S. equities, the divergence between growth and value stocks, and the implications of China's trade surplus. Liz Ann and Louis delve into the impact of DeepSeek on the tech landscape, the potential for market bubbles, and future trends in technology and infrastructure spending.Kathy Jones and Liz Ann also discuss the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and its implications for inflation and the equity market. They explore the impact of tariffs on prices, the labor market, and the overall U.S. economy. The discussion also touches on the potential effects of government employment cuts on the unemployment rate and economic indicators. Kathy and Liz Ann conclude with a look at key data releases and indicators to watch in the coming week.You can read the two reports that Liz Ann and Louis discuss here: "Building Narratives Around Obvious Outliers" and "Another Sputnik Moment." On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here. Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and cannot protect against losses in a declining market.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.(0225-V55E)
Interview recorded - 23rd of January, 2025On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back Louis-Vincent Gave. Louis is the Founding Partner & Chief Executive Officer of Gavekal.During our conversation we spoke about his thoughts on the markets, the everything bubble in the US, what tariffs mean for the US Dollar, the Chinese economic revolution, QE in the market, manufacturing boom and more. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction0:59 - Louisâ overview of markets4:00 - Everything bubble in the US?7:44 - Are tariffs bullish US Dollar?10:20 - Expectation of US/China relationship?13:39 - Geopolitical ideology with Biden15:11 - What is happening in China?22:26 - China QE26:08 - Shifting to consumption economy?30:31 - Data points to watch?32:56 - Reliant on foreign investors?36:46 - Issues in Europe38:31 - Chinese currency?44:55 - One message to takeaway?After receiving his bachelor's degree from Duke University and studying Mandarin at Nanjing University, Louis joined the French Army where he served as a second lieutenant in a mountain infantry battalion. After a couple of years, Louis left the army and joined Paribas where he worked as a financial analystâfirst in Paris, then in Hong Kong.Louis left Paribas in 1998 to launch Gavekal with his father Charles and Anatole Kaletsky. The idea at the time was that Asia was set to become an ever more important factor in global growth, and that consequently Gavekal needed to offer its clients more information, and more ideas, relating to Asia.Louis has written seven books, the latest being Avoiding the Punch: Investing in Uncertain Times which reviews how to build a portfolio at a time of rising geostrategic strife, and when very low interest rates and stretched valuations on most assets announce constrained returns on most assets over the next decade.Louis speaks English and French. He spent many hours studying Mandarin and Spanish, which he once spoke decently. He is married with two sons and two daughters.Louis-Vincent Gave:Website - https://research.gavekal.com/Twitter - https://x.com/gave_vincentWTFinance -Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas
Officials have taken dramatic steps to boost confidence and growth in the world's second-largest economy. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal, explains why he sees the People's Republic turning into a high-tech, low-growth country. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt-out of targeted advertising.
Alan Dunne welcomes back Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal in this episode to delve into the Chinese economic outlook and discuss the broader macro trends. Louis shares his thoughts on whether the Chinese economy and Chinese asset markets are truly at a turning point. They examine the crisis of confidence among Chinese consumers and assess whether recent stimulus measures can help. China's active industrial policy and desire to grow its share of global manufacturing has been a key policy pillar and Louis examines how sustainable the policy is. The conversation also covers US policy, the prospects for a recession, and how the upcoming US election—particularly a potential Trump victory—could be highly significant for US- China relations and impact bond markets and the US dollar. Louis also gives his take on the structural challenges facing France and Europe, and whether we can expect a recovery in productivity.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Louis on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 02:27 - Introduction to Louis Gave03:50 - Is the Chinese economy experiencing a turning point?09:20 - Can China restore their foreign capital flow?13:40 - The state of Chinese fiscal policy19:12 - A flash point in Chinese overcapacity24:14 - A commodity catalyst - reflation incoming?28:46 - Will the U.S experience a recession soon?36:48 - A fiscal...
While much of Wall Street's focus over past recent years has been on the Big US Tech stocks, aka the Magnificent 7, there are an increasing number of seismic developments happening internationally investors need to be aware of. For example, emerging market stocks have positively trounced tech stocks since June. And to name just a few others: - China is now firing i's monetary and fiscal bazookas with gusto. - India is now the world's fastest growing major economy & its stock market is booming. - Japan just elected a new prime minister whose hawkish policies might end the yen/dollar carry trade. - And of course, the escalation of hostilities in the MiddleEast threaten to inject a lot more uncertainty into geopolitical and global trade. Which international trends are the most important for investors to track? What are the biggest risks? And where are the biggest opportunities? To better understand the situation from a non-US perspective, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program Louis Gave, Founding Partner and CEO at Gavekal. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #emergingmarkets #chinastocks #carrytrade --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
Host: Tracy Shuchart for MicDropMarketsGuest: Louis-Vincent Gave Louis-Vincent Gave Louis-Vincent Gave is CEO of Gavekal. He co-founded the company in 1999 with his father Charles and Anatole Kaletsky. Gavekal started as an independent research firm and evolved in 2005 to include fund management and in 2008 to include data analysis services. Since 2005, Louis has mostly focused on the money management side of the business. Before co-founding Gavekal, Louis worked for Paribas Capital Markets where he was an equity research analyst from 1997 to 1999. In 1996 and 1997, Louis served in the French Mountain Infantry Division as a Second Lieutenant. Louis studied Economics, History and Chinese at Duke University and Nanjing University. In the past decade, Louis has written seven books, including his latest "Avoiding the Punch: Investing in Uncertain Times", published in August 2021.Disclaimer: This material is presented solely for informational and entertainment purposes and is not to be construed as a recommendation, solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell / long or short any securities, commodities, or any related financial instruments. Please contact a licensed professional before making any investment or trading decisions
Interview recorded - 12th of June, 2024On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming on Louis-Vincent Gave.During our conversation we spoke about Louis' outlook for global markets, why growth could remain strong with higher inflation, what this means for commodities, whether the Chinese economy has bottomed, Yen weakness and more. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction1:55 - Outlook on global markets?4:32 - Pullback in emerging markets?10:45 - Economic sentiment starting to change?13:35 - FED cut on table?15:01 - Markets increase when cut?17:01 - Will inflation remain high?19:23 - China bottom?27:07 - China to be smarter with investment?31:02- Chinese Yuan further depreciation?33:17 - Yen to continue to be weak?35:19 - What would change Louis perspective?37:42 - One message to takeaway from conversation?After receiving his bachelor's degree from Duke University and studying Mandarin at Nanjing University, Louis joined the French Army where he served as a second lieutenant in a mountain infantry battalion. After a couple of years, Louis left the army and joined Paribas where he worked as a financial analyst—first in Paris, then in Hong Kong.Louis left Paribas in 1998 to launch Gavekal with his father Charles and Anatole Kaletsky. The idea at the time was that Asia was set to become an ever more important factor in global growth, and that consequently Gavekal needed to offer its clients more information, and more ideas, relating to Asia.Louis has written seven books, the latest being Avoiding the Punch: Investing in Uncertain Times which reviews how to build a portfolio at a time of rising geostrategic strife, and when very low interest rates and stretched valuations on most assets announce constrained returns on most assets over the next decade.Louis speaks English and French. He spent many hours studying Mandarin and Spanish, which he once spoke decently. He is married with two sons and two daughters.Louis-Vincent Gave:Website - https://research.gavekal.com/Twitter - https://x.com/gave_vincentWTFinance -Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas
Louis Gave thinks that those bearish on commodities due to a potential recession are discounting the pace and size of emerging market development. Louis argues that as a new middle class establishes themselves in places like India, Latin America, and across Asia, precious metals, copper, uranium, and energy prices are headed much higher. Gavekal: https://web.gavekal.comFollow Louis on X: https://twitter.com/gave_vincent Follow Jesse Day on X: https://twitter.com/jessebdayCommodity Culture on Youtube: https://youtube.com/c/CommodityCulture
In this episode of Pekingology, Freeman Chair in China Studies Jude Blanchette,is joined by Yanmei Xie, Geopolitics Analyst with Gavekal Research, who has recently been publishing articles at Gavekal and the Financial Times. Today, Jude and Yanmei discuss her recent client notes on Chinese overcapacity and its EV sector.
David Hay, co-chief investment officer at Evergreen Gavekal -- author of the Haymaker newsletter focused on macroeconomic research -- says that 'Pseudo prosperity is still prosperity,' and investors should like whatever they are getting from the economy now because he does not think it will last. Hay says the market "is almost all-in on Goldilocks," which will "make it hard to make money betting on the soft landing." Christopher Zook, president of CAZ Investments -- co-author of Tony Robbins' new book, "The Holy Grail of Investing" -- talks about the themes and the alternative investments that will drive the next decade or more while delivering oversized gains. Plus, in "The Financial Crunch," Cam Miller, chief revenue officer at Money Pickle, talks about how much money someone needs to have before turning to a financial adviser for help.
Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal discusses China's economic growth, its focus on education, and the global implications of its economic and political policies.https://research.gavekal.com/Steve and Louis discuss: (00:00) - Early life - Gave as French infantry officer (14:42) - Founding Gavekal (23:50) - Understanding China economic growth (32:57) - China real estate market (42:48) - The impact of China's economic growth (48:19) - Comparing the size of the Chinese and U.S. economies (01:07:09) - China's trade surplus and U.S. debt (01:18:11) - Will there be a U.S. debt crisis? Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (Superfocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Follow him on X @hsu_steve.
Today's returning guests are Gavekal co-founder Louis-Vincent Gave and Praetorian Capital Management founder, Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman. In today's episode, we start by covering the macro landscape and then dive in on some key themes Louis and Kuppy are focused on. We talk about emerging markets, the energy transition's impact on commodities like oil and uranium, and stealth bull markets in places like Japan and India. We also touch on the Mag7, Argentina, Turkey, and even aviation sub-assembly – a first for the podcast. ----- Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by YCharts. YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. YCharts offers a suite of intuitive tools, including numerous visualizations, comprehensive security screeners, portfolio construction, communication outputs, and market monitoring. Visit YCharts to start your free trial and be sure to mention "Meb" for 20% off your subscription. (New clients only) Sponsor: Today's episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world's largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here. Follow The Idea Farm: Twitter | LinkedIn | Instagram | Tik Tok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this special edition of The Investor's Guide to China, Catherine Yeung, Investment Director, is joined in Hong Kong by Louis-Vincent Gave, the founder and CEO of Gavekal, a leading independent provider of global investment research. They tackle questions from the development of China's AI landscape and what it means for the country's youth unemployment, to what the stellar performance of the Chinese bond market means for the country, and the internationalisation of the renminbi. With an additional contribution from Portfolio Manager Tina Tian. Read more at fidelityinternational.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this special edition of The Investor's Guide to China, Catherine Yeung, Investment Director, is joined in Hong Kong by Louis-Vincent Gave, the founder and CEO of Gavekal, a leading independent provider of global investment research. They tackle questions from the development of China's AI landscape and what it means for the country's youth unemployment, to what the stellar performance of the Chinese bond market means for the country, and the internationalisation of the renminbi. With an additional contribution from Portfolio Manager Tina Tian. Read more at fidelityinternational.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
On today's episode, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Journalist and columnist on trade issues Shankkar Aiyyar. We've also featured an excerpt from Episode #104 featuring Louis-Vincent Gave, founding partner and CEO of Gavekal, one of the world's leading providers of investment research. SHOW NOTES[00:00] Stories Of The Day[00:46] India's stocks are down but there is good news on bonds[05:39] The World Trade Organisation lumps India with an unusual trading bloc[13:01] Murdoch steps down from NewsCorp and the media assets he sold to Disney are on sale.[16:45] Factories are leaving China but which ones?For more of our coverage check out thecore.inInteract with us or ask us questions on TelegramSubscribe to our NewsletterFollow us on:Twitter | Instagram | Facebook | Linkedin | Youtube
On this episode, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Louis-Vincent Gave, founding partner and CEO of Gavekal, one of the world's leading providers of investment research, providing insights on the global macroeconomy and markets, and on China's economy and companies. In 1998, Louis launched Gavekal with his father Charles and Anatole Kaletsky. At the time, Asia was set to become an ever more important factor in global growth, so Gavekal was set up to offer its clients more information, and more ideas, relating to Asia.Louis has written seven books, the latest being Avoiding the Punch: Investing in Uncertain Times which reviews how to build a portfolio at a time of rising geostrategic strife, and when very low interest rates and stretched valuations on most assets announce constrained returns on most assets over the next decade.In this conversation you learn about the state of China's exports, how the Russia-Ukraine War catalyzed de-dollarization, the impact of green energy on western economies, how the markets view India and more.For more of our coverage check out thecore.inSubscribe to our NewsletterFollow us on:Twitter | Instagram | Facebook | Linkedin | Youtube | Telegram
MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back Gavekal co-founder, Louis-Vincent Gave to the show. Louis and Erik will discuss the economic situation in China, inflation, energy prices, and much more. https://bit.ly/3rlVliz Check out Energy Transition Crisis on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EnergyTransitionCrisis1 Download Big Picture Trading chartbook
Balaji Srinivasan joins Erik Torenberg and Dan Romero on the Moment of Zen podcast to share his new theory of the Tribal Lens, why cognitive territories will gain increasingly more power than land-defined territories, why the US is no longer a beacon in the world, and Balaji strategy to fix San Francisco. Make sure you're subscribed to https://link.chtbl.com/moz to get notified when we release Part 2. RECOMMENDED PODCAST: The HR industry is at a crossroads. What will it take to construct the next generation of incredible businesses – and where can people leaders have the most business impact? Hosts Nolan Church and Kelli Dragovich have been through it all, the highs and the lows – IPOs, layoffs, executive turnover, board meetings, culture changes, and more. With a lineup of industry vets and experts, Nolan and Kelli break down the nitty-gritty details, trade offs, and dynamics of constructing high performing companies. Through unfiltered conversations that can only happen between seasoned practitioners, Kelli and Nolan dive deep into the kind of leadership-level strategy that often happens behind closed doors. Check out the first episode with the architect of Netflix's culture deck Patty McCord. https://link.chtbl.com/hrheretics Moment of Zen is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: www.turpentine.co RECOMMENDED PODCAST: ECON 102 w/ Noah Smith Subscribe: https://link.chtbl.com/Econ102 TOPICS DISCUSSED: (00:00) Episode Preview (07:50) Cloud Cartography: If you don't control the cognitive territory. you don't control the lands (13:30) Sponsors: Vanta, NetSuite (17:30) Why people don't take the internet seriously? (22:30) The US is not a nation state (23:45) A civilization state (25:17) Why Americans should learn about India's history / India and the US are converging (30:50) Why a civil war doesn't seem realistic to people now (38:55) Where else should a talented person move? (41:35) Asia is the new global center, (47:10) Internet first, not America first (01:01:45) Software vs. Hardware (01:05:45) Elon and the Grey Strategy (01:16:40) Israel is looking away from the US for partners (01:19:00) The Tribal lens integrates both domestic and foreign politics (01:21:00) Will blue always win? (01:23:43) Making sense of the China meltdown story (01:34:55) How to fix San Francisco (01:50:30) Irrationality is an advantage (01:57:00) Building gray turf (02:03:00) Mapping the blues, reds, and grays in San Francisco (02:05:20) Dan and Erik debrief SELECT LINKS * For more shownotes directly to your inbox, subscribe to our Substack: https://momentofzen.substack.com/ Not Too Long Ago Americans Didn't Care About Taiwan, https://x.com/balajis/status/1657852505425063936?s=46 Jacob Siegel and Liel Leibovitz, End US Aid to Israel, Tablet Magazine - https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/end-american-aid-israel Louis-Vincent Gave, Making Sense of the China Meltdown Story , Gavekal - https://research.gavekal.com/article/making-sense-of-the-china-meltdown-story/ Beautifultrouble.org - Balaji refers to this as the degrowth handbook X / Twitter @balajis (Balaji) @dwr (Dan) @eriktorenberg (Erik) @MOZ_Podcast SPONSORS: Vanta | NetSuite Are you building a business? If you're looking for SOC 2, ISO 27001, GDPR or HIPAA compliance, head to Vanta. Achieving compliance can actually unlock major growth for your company and build customer loyalty. Vanta automates up to 90% of Compliance work, getting you audit-ready in weeks instead of months and saving 85% of associated costs. Moment of Zen listeners get $1000 off at https://www.vanta.com/zen NetSuite has 25 years of providing financial software for all your business needs. More than 36,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform, head to NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/ZEN and download your own customized KPI checklist.
David Hay, co-chief investment officer at Evergreen Gavekal -- the author of the Haymaker newsletter -- says the economy has been throwing 'a huge head fake right now' that has convinced a lot of pundits that the Federal Reserve can pull off a soft- or no-landing scenario. That's not what he's expecting, however, noting that there are plenty of indicators to suggest that troubles are mounting. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi turns to an income fund for his ETF of the Week, Catherine Collinson of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies discusses the changing outlook that different generations have for their retirements, and William Smead of the Smead Value fund taks stocks -- and holding unpopular positions for a long time -- in the Market Call.
Forget de-risking or containment. In this Exchange podcast, Gavekal research director Chris Beddor explains the political framing of the slogans, unpicks changing trade and financial flows between the world's two biggest economies and explains why China hasn't retaliated more. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt-out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
While most eyes are focused on what the Federal Reserve will do next, many of the most important developments shaping events here in 2023 are happening outside of the US. Russia's invasion of Ukraine upended the geo-political chessboard, as well as world trade and the energy & financial markets -- and it continues raging on, over a year after its outbreak. China, too, is making waves that all nations feel as it reopens its economy after years of COVID lockdown while its relations with the West continue to strain over Taiwan. What large & long lasting implications will these global developments have? To better understand the situation from a non-US perspective, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program Louis Gave, Founding Partner and CEO at Gavekal. ************************************************* At Wealthion, we show you how to protect and build your wealth by learning from the world's top experts on finance and money. Each week we add new videos that provide you with access to the foremost specialists in investing, economics, the stock market, real estate and personal finance. We offer exceptional interviews and explainer videos that dive deep into the trends driving today's markets, the economy, and your own net worth. We give you strategies for financial security, practical answers to questions like “how to grow my investments?”, and effective solutions for wealth building tailored to 'regular' investors just like you. There's no doubt that it's a very challenging time right now for the average investor. Above and beyond the recent economic impacts of COVID, the new era of record low interest rates, runaway US debt and US deficits, and trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus stimulus has changed the rules of investing by dangerously distorting the Dow index, the S&P 500, and nearly all other asset prices. Can prices keep rising, or is there a painful reckoning ahead? Let us help you prepare your portfolio just in case the future brings one or more of the following: inflation, deflation, a bull market, a bear market, a market correction, a stock market crash, a real estate bubble, a real estate crash, an economic boom, a recession, a depression, or another global financial crisis. Put the wisdom from the money & markets experts we feature on Wealthion into action by scheduling a free consultation with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors, who will work with you to determine the right next steps for you to take in building your wealth. SCHEDULE YOUR FREE WEALTH CONSULTATION with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors here: https://www.wealthion.com/ #inflation #fed #china ************************************************* IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.
BIO: Louis-Vincent Gave is the Chief Executive Officer of Gavekal, a Hong Kong-based company he co-founded over 20 years ago with his father, Charles, and Anatole Kaletsky.STORY: Louis's father invested one million dollars in a portfolio of 10 Asian companies. Louis was managing this portfolio, whose size was disproportionate to his earnings. He was earning $50,000 annually at the time and had never owned a portfolio this big, which made him sick.LEARNING: Portfolio sizing matters tremendously. Never under or over-position yourself. Invest with people who have experience. “Know your own weaknesses and don't put yourself in a situation that plays to those weaknesses.”Louis-Vincent Gave Guest profileLouis-Vincent Gave is the Chief Executive Officer of Gavekal, a Hong Kong-based company he co-founded over 20 years ago with his father, Charles, and Anatole Kaletsky. Gavekal has grown to become one of the world's leading independent research providers to institutional investors around the globe. Louis has written seven books. His latest, Avoiding The Punch, published in 2021, deals with the challenges of building resilient portfolios in inflationary times.The real challenge of venturing into ChinaBefore getting down to Louis's worst investment ever, he spoke to us about his strategy to build a market for his company in the Chinese market. His company, Gavekal, has operated successfully for over 20 years.When Louis started Gavekal in Hong Kong in the early 2000s, it was evident that China would be a massive factor in the global economy. There was a huge gap in understanding China's role in the world and people's understanding of it. Louis and his father figured they could try to monetize that gap. So they started an independent research firm. It was a macro research firm but with a strong China angle. Louis has tried to build up his expertise in China over the years.According to Louis, the real challenge in China is always getting a clear picture. Many foreign investors don't trust the available data.How to succeed in the Chinese marketLouis says that the important thing for a foreign investor eyeing the Chinese market is to put things into context. You need to relate the economic data and the policy pronouncements to what you hear from corporations.So when Louis and his father entered the market, they talked to the corporates and policymakers to put together a picture that was as close to the truth as possible.Worst investment everLouis grew up very privileged. His dad had been a very successful money manager and had made much money selling his firm to Alliance capital in the mid-90s. After the sale, he retired. At the time, Louis was in Asia when the Asian crisis hit, and everything went bust. Louis's dad called and told him he wanted to invest a million dollars in 10 high-quality blue-chip Asian companies. This was in August 1998.Louis earned $50,000 a year, so managing a one-million-dollar portfolio was a huge deal for him. Between August and October, the portfolio fell by 60%. Louis was literally sick of looking at these positions where, on every individual position, he was losing more than his annual salary. Then between October and December, the market started stabilizing. By March, the portfolio was...
Today's guest is Louis-Vincent Gave, Founding Partner and CEO of GaveKal, a leading independent provider of macro research, and GaveKal Capital, a global asset manager. In today's episode, Louis kicks it off with the biggest topic in global markets today – the Xi Pivot & reopening of China. He shares his outlook for how it may affect global supply chains, commodity markets, and financial markets. He covers the case for the emerging markets, why he isn't bullish on the US, and why it may be time to rethink your portfolio construction as we head into a new year. ----- Follow Meb on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- This episode is sponsored by Masterworks. Masterworks is opening the doors to top-tier, blue-chip art investments to everyone. Visit masterworks.io/meb to skip their wait list. ----- Today's episode is sponsored by The Idea Farm. The Idea Farm gives you access to over $100,000 worth of investing research, the kind usually read by only the world's largest institutions, funds, and money managers. Subscribe for free here. ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!
MacroVoices welcomes Gavekal co-founder, Louis-Vincent Gave to the show. Louis says when China's Xi Jinping pivots from zero COVID policy to re-opening the Chinese economy, it will send a macroeconomic shock wave through global markets that will re-ignite inflation and have more overall effect than the Fed pivot most market participants are obsessed with. https://bit.ly/3SlOm0q Download Big Picture Trading chartbook
Louis-Vincent Gave is the Founding Partner and CEO of GaveKal, a leading independent provider of macro research, and GaveKal Capital, manager of $2 billion in assets. Louis is one of my go-to sources for strategic research. He came on the show earlier this year to discuss the conflict in Ukraine, and that conversation is replayed on the feed. This time around, we cover Louis' perspective on the bear market and its transition of leadership from developed to emerging markets. We discuss emerging markets, the U.S. dollar, age of weaponization, deglobalization, China, and where to invest to weather the storm. Stream by AlphaSense Webinar: Institutional Investing — From Ancient Rome to $61 Trillion! Registration: https://go.alpha-sense.com/wb-stm-institutional-investing/?utm_source=pt_Ted&utm_mediu[…]nsored&utm_campaign=WB_STM_10-11-22_Institutional-Investing Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership
Louis-Vincent Gave is the Founding Partner and CEO of GaveKal, one of the world's leading independent providers of macro research, and GaveKal Capital, a manager of $2.7 billion in assets. Louis launched GaveKal alongside his father in 2000 and has become a go-to source for creative research on global economics and asset allocation, particularly in China. He recently penned CYA as a Guiding Principle, dissecting the consequences of Western government responses to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He joined me to discuss the key takeaways. Our conversation starts with Louis' background and founding of GaveKal, and turns to the potential second order impacts of freezing reserves, seizing oligarch assets, end of Swiss neutrality, energy prices, and military spending. We close discussing how the situation may affect China. Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership
Louis-Vincent Gave co-founded GaveKal in 1999 with his father Charles and Anatole Kaletsky and serves as CEO. GaveKal started as a research firm and evolved in 2005 to include fund management and data analysis services. Here Louis discusses China, inflation, the European energy crisis and much more!
Vil Kina oppnå den samme høye veksten som landet har hatt de siste tiårene? Arthur Kroeber ved Gavekal i Hong Kong ser flere utfordringer, blant annet at Kinas teknologistrategi vil være vanskelig å gjennomføre med et autokratisk, hierarkisk politisk system. Dette er fjerde episode i en serie på fire episoder om Kina og Sørøst-Asia.
Many of the most important developments shaping events here in 2022 are happening outside of the US Obviously, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has upended the geo-political chessboard, as well as world trade and the energy & financial markets. China, too, is making waves that all nations feel. What decisions these two world powers make, especially in terms of what kind of relationship they choose to have with the West going forward, will have large & long lasting implications. To better understand the situation from a non-US perspective, we're fortunately to speak with Louis Gave, Founding Partner and CEO at Gavekal. https://youtu.be/YiM1fYZq0T8
MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Gavekal co-founder Louis-Vincent Gave to the show. Louis has a different take on the impact of U.S. seizure of foreign-owned assets, and he also shares his outlook for bonds, the dollar, stocks, and precious metals. https://bit.ly/3G5dOmI Join Free LIVE webinar this Sunday May 22nd at 11am ET: https://bit.ly/3FYN4nL Download Big Picture Trading Chartbook
An hour long discussion with Arthur Kroeber - founder of China focused Gavenkal Dragonomics research service - where we discuss short and longer term challenges of China's economy given both domestic structural change and big geopolitical shifts. Arthur covers the implications for multinational corporations and what adaptation strategies they need to think about to maintain business continuity and supply chains.Arthur R. Kroeber is a partner and head of research at Gavekal, a Hong Kong-based economic research firm, and founder of its China-focused Gavekal Dragonomics research service. Before establishing Dragonomics in 2002, he spent fifteen years as a financial and economic journalist in China and South Asia. He is adjunct professor of economics at the NYU Stern School of Business, a senior non-resident fellow of the Brookings-Tsinghua (Ching-Hua) Center in Beijing, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a member of the National Committee on US-China Relations. His book China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know (2nd edition 2020) is published by Oxford University Press.
Louis-Vincent Gave is the Founding Partner and CEO of GaveKal, one of the world's leading independent providers of macro research, and GaveKal Capital, a manager of $2.7 billion in assets. Louis launched GaveKal alongside his father in 2000 and has become a go-to source for creative research on global economics and asset allocation, particularly in China. He recently penned CYA as a Guiding Principle, dissecting the consequences of Western government responses to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He joined me to discuss the key takeaways. Our conversation starts with Louis' background and founding of GaveKal, and turns to the potential second order impacts of freezing reserves, seizing oligarch assets, end of Swiss neutrality, energy prices, and military spending. We close discussing how the situation may affect China. Learn More Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn Subscribe to the mailing list Access Transcript with Premium Membership
Freddie Sayers meets Louis-Vincent Gave.Since the end of November 2021, Moderna's share price has been falling dramatically, from $368 to $147 at the time of writing.Why might this be? And what does it tell us about the vaccines more generally?Freddie Sayers sat down with Louis Gave, a financial analyst and co-founder of Gavekal, a financial services firm based in Hong Kong. Gave noted that the markets had been ahead of politicians and even epidemiologists on the Omicron variant in terms of its lethality, but also evidently they had determined that vaccines were not the ‘silver bullet' solution they were initially sold as. What may be taboo to say in political circles is more bluntly put when people are betting their money on the outcome.Read The Post here. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Episode Notes:Today's guest is Chen Long, co-founder and partner of Plenum, a research firm covering Chinese economy and politics. Prior to that, he was a China economist at Gavekal Dragonomics. Chen Long is a Beijinger, and graduated from Peking University. Welcome to the podcast. It's great to have you.2:20 - I think the economy is a little bit like ice and fire, for now. There are certain areas certainly doing pretty poorly. Of course, everyone always talking about the property market, Evergrande, and basically every couple weeks we see a property developer default… 6:00 on the power generation problems - usually December is a peak of Chinese electricity consumption. I'm not sure the current supply of coal is not ... I mean, it's better than a month ago, but they probably have to do a little bit more. So I think it's still too early to say that we have totally overcome the end of the shortage.13:07 on whether this time is different with the real estate market - a year after Beijing and many local governments introduced restrictive policies, finally, we had three months in a row of property sales volume falling by double digits, on a year on year basis. But this is just three months, right? If you look at the previous cycles, especially 2015, 16, we could have the down cycle for 15 months. But this is just three, right? So Beijing has not blinked yet, because it's only three months.16:30 on Evergrande - I think there was a little bit of overreaction, especially when you see headlines linking Evergrande to Lehman Brothers, and this sort of thing. And I have to say that this is at least the third time I hear a Chinese Lehman moment in the last ten years.35:50 on the 6th Plenum and likely historical resolution - The previous ones were all about resolutions on certain questions of the party's history. Right? And this one is not uncertain questions. There is no question. It is resolution on the party's accomplishments over the last 100 years, and the lessons. So I guess it's a big, big summary about what he has done. And, of course, this one I think will cement him as the core, right? And we have to follow whatever he thinks we should do soLinks: The Plenum website. Transcript:Bill:Hi everyone. Today's guest is Chen Long, co-founder and partner of Plenum, a research firm covering Chinese economy and politics. Prior to that, he was a China economist at Gavekal Dragonomics. Chen Long is a Beijinger, and graduated from Peking University. Welcome to the podcast. It's great to have you.Chen:Thank you, Bill. It's my honor to be your third guest.Bill:Oh, well, third time is the charm, I hope. And I hope things are well. And I hope things are well in Beijing. I have to say, I very much miss this time of year in Beijing. There is something really special about autumn in Beijing.Bill:So, to kick off, today, I think we want to talk about the state of economy, and various themes related to that, including common prosperity, and real estate, the sixth plenum that's coming up. But, to start out, could you just give a brief intro about yourself, and more specifically what Plenum does?Bill:Just for listeners, it's a high end research service. The website is at Plenum.ai. And it's really terrific. It's one of my top most favorite research services on China now. They're really sharp on economy and politics.Chen:Yeah. Thank you, Bill. I think, Bill, you have done basically all the marketing I need to do. So we are a pretty young firm. I mean, we were founded two years ago, almost exactly two years ago. And that's when we first started to publish reports. And we write on Chinese economy, policies, politics, geopolitics, other stuff. And we serve institutional clients. Some are financial institutions, some are non-financial corporations.Chen:And I think where we are a little bit different from others, is the team is basically entirely Chinese nationals. But, of course, we'll come from different backgrounds. A lot of people work in the US for many years. And, right now, I'm based in Beijing. Yeah.Bill:And I first came across your work, I think, because you were working with Arthur Kroger, over at Gavekal DragonomicsChen:Yes. I was at Gavekal for almost six years. Yeah.Bill:Right. And I think that's where I first started reading your work. So, anyway, it's great to have you. I've always been a big fan. So-Chen:Yeah. Thank you, Bill.Bill:From a top level, could you just give us your view on what's going on in the economy in China, and where things are?Chen:Yeah. I think the economy is a little bit like ice and fire, for now. There are certain areas certainly doing pretty poorly. Of course, everyone always talking about the property market, Evergrande, and basically every couple weeks we see a property developer default.Chen:But, on the other hand, you also see this energy crunch, which actually was because energy demand was really strong, right? And industrial demand was strong. And then the grid and then the power plants could not meet up with that demand. So you basically have one big sector of economy, and actually several big sectors, apart from the real estate, you have the automobile market actually shrinking this year, general consumption were pretty mediocre, right? Because whenever there's a COVID cluster, you have local governments will restrict travel, or implement some sort of lockdown for two or four weeks. So consumption will be affected.Chen:But, on the other hand, the export is really strong, right? We're probably seeing the best export performance since 2011. That's the best we have in a decade. And there's no sign that this is putting off. A lot of people have said, "No, this is just temporary. Not going to be sustainable." I've been hearing that argument since a year ago. And, right now, it's still really hot. So that's why you have certain sectors ... So that's a little bit special, I think, compared with any time in the last decade. Yeah.Bill:And, certainly, specifically around the energy challenges, you said it was really because demand was so high. How quickly do you think that the ... There have been a whole flurry of measures from the NDRC, and other government bodies, about making sure that the coal supply increases, and cracking down on price speculation.Bill:And, I mean, how quickly do you think that these regulatory actions are going to solve the problem? And, the reforming or the changing in the price mechanism, is that enough to make the power generators actually make money now, so they're more willing to produce energy? Or are we still going to be looking at probably fits and starts over the next few months?Chen:Yeah. I think a lot of the power plants may not be losing money at this point. The government basically did several things at the same time. One, they told all the coal miners just to increase supply as much as you can. And, two, they told the coal miners also to restrict the prices. Basically, they set a cap. And there's a debate on what exactly is the cap, because there are several different versions of the cap.Chen:But whatever version you believe in, there's a cap. And the cap is a lot lower than the market price we had two weeks ago. That's why we had this Zhengzhou thermal coal future price, basically halve in two weeks. And they also allow the power plants to raise the electricity prices by up to 20%, and more if the users are high energy intensity sectors.Chen:So there are flurry of changes happen just over the last months or so. And I think the coal supply has probably improved quite a bit. And we are hearing a lot less stories on companies running ... They face blackouts, or they were just told in very short notice that they have to cut production. We hear a lot less that sort of story. But that still exists, it's just a lot less than a month ago, or at the end of September.Chen:But with this winter heating season coming again, usually December is a peak of Chinese electricity consumption. I'm not sure the current supply of coal is not ... I mean, it's better than a month ago, but they probably have to do a little bit more. So I think it's still too early to say that we have totally overcome the end of the shortage.Bill:Thanks. I mean, it is interesting how it really seemed to have caught a lot of people by surprise. I think both policy makers, but also investors. It's just interesting how that happened, and how so many people seemed to not understand what was going on, including myself.Chen:Yeah. Because, for 20 years maybe, people talk about China has over capacity in IPP, this is actually the power plants. China invested too much in some coal power plants. And I think, at one point, like 2015 or 2016, when over capacity got really serious. And then that was one of the sectors that local and others had to work very hard to cut capacity.Chen:So we never really thought for a second that China would have electricity shortage, because there's always huge supply, maybe oversupply. But I think a lot of things changed since the beginning of the pandemic. The services sector used to be growing a lot faster. But, so far, it's underperforming, while the industrial sector, which were slowing for many years, has suddenly started to outperform.Chen:So, basically, since the second quarter of last year, we have a Chinese economy moving further away from a service driven economy, to a more industrial driven economy. So that's a completely reversal of the trend since 2010, or even 2005.Bill:That's also a reversal of what a lot of economists have recommended China do, right?Chen:Yeah. I mean, people say, "No, yeah, China should become more service driven, and less industrial driven. And also, of course, more consumption driven, less investment driven." But I would say this whole rebalancing theme has somewhat reversed over the last year or so.Chen:And this just, again, has to do with this fire and ice, as I mentioned earlier. So this is just one sector doing really well, it's industrials. And the manufacturing facilities are just all pretty at fully capacity, demand from the rest of the world is really strong. And while the domestic consumption is very mediocre. And service sector, of course, the people just go out a little bit less than they were, in 2019 or earlier.Chen:So basically the economy itself is consuming much more electricity than it used to be, that means two years ago. So, suddenly, we have this issue.Bill:Interesting. And just on that stronger industrial, weaker consumption service sector, is that by design? Is that something that the policy makers want? Or is this just more of an outgrowth of the pandemic changing global dynamics, potentially consumer spending dropping because of concerns about consumer debt, for example? I mean, what's driving that?Chen:I don't think it's intended or planned, or even foreseen by Beijing, by the leadership, I think when China started to get out of the pandemic, in April or May 2020, I mean, there was a real fear, because the rest of the world is experiencing the worst of the pandemic. So the worry, at the time, was China is going to face a demand collapse from the rest of the world. So you got a double whammy economic crisis. So just get out from the domestic demand collapse, you're going to see an external demand collapse.Chen:But somehow that external demand collapse didn't really happen, or just basically happened for one month or so. And turned out to be that the export was really strong. And people in Beijing could hardly believe that. And people say, "Oh, this is just temporary. Because this supply chain was disrupted. But maybe when the things get better next year, the demand will go away. And somebody might has to do with this stimulus checks, given by US government, European governments. Once that effect expires, the demand will go away."Chen:But, so far, it still hasn't gone away. And with Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe, Latin America, lot of developing manufacture hubs in trouble, China basically became the only manufacture hub that can still maintain enough supplies. So I think that really caught a lot of people, including the Chinese government, by a big surprise.Bill:No, it is. It is really interesting. And so as you talk about the economy, I think you called it fire and ice, I mean, one area that seems a bit icy is real estate. And, obviously, Evergrande's been in the news. But there are plenty of real estate developers that have violated the three red lines, or seem to be in various states of default or near default on some of their debt.Bill:One thing that's been interesting is we've seen real estate stresses that are over the last 15 years or so. Every few years, it seems like there's a cycle, and it's usually policy driven. Because the policy makers want to crack down on real estate speculation and unproductive investment. But then when things start getting bad, and stressed, and companies start having problems, and prices maybe start looking like they're going to drop in some places, the policy makers always blink and pull back, and basically find ways to loosen things up, and let the market return.Bill:It seems like, this time, they've been much more disciplined, I think surprising a lot of people, in terms of being willing to ride out a lot more pain around the real estate sector. Is that a fair assessment? And, if it is, why is that? And if it's not, how do you see what's going on?Chen:Yeah. I tend to believe that this time is not that much different from previous episodes. I mean, I know there's the argument there, saying, "Xi really wants to reduce the share of the real estate in the economy, and wants to curb housing prices." But I don't think this is new. We have this episode, like you just mentioned, multiple times in the last 15 years. Basically every three years, we have a property cycle, from trough to peak to trough. Right? And the Chinese government, in both central and local, that will change policies very, very quickly.Chen:And this time is no different, right? Because you talk about the three red lines, the three red lines really were just introduced a year ago, last August. Right? And, well, the background of that was the PBOC, along with other policy makers, the property market recovered too quickly, and think they're doing too well. And housing prices in cities, especially big cities like Shenzhen or Shanghai, were rising too fast. And that was a little bit unanticipated. So they said, "No, we have to restrict the area, this kind of bull run."Chen:And now a year after Beijing and many local governments introduced restrictive policies, finally, we had three months in a row of property sales volume falling by double digits, on a year on year basis. But this is just three months, right? If you look at the previous cycles, especially 2015, 16, we could have the down cycle for 15 months. But this is just three, right? So Beijing has not blinked yet, because it's only three months. Right?Chen:And we are seeing a little bit some early signs, like PBOC two weeks ago said, "Oh, some banks misunderstood our intention, when we told them to restrict the lending. And some of the normal projects would not be restricted," blah, blah, blah. And then I think today, or yesterday, one of the state-owned media, Economic Daily again published article about these housing regulations. So I think we're seeing some signs that those things are easing a little bit. So it's not like they are just letting the market die.Bill:Right. Well, and I mean, there are real risks. I mean, there are real risks around ... I mean, I owned property in China for a while, and certainly had lots of friends, including some real estate developers, and people with lots of ... I mean, there was just this sense that, in these previous cycles, they would go until prices started dropping, and there was a risk of people getting really pissed off because they were losing money again.Bill:And so is that one of the things ... I mean, again, it doesn't seem like the prices have dropped that much yet in most places. Is that one of the things to look for, where if we start seeing housing prices actually go negative, is that one of the triggers that makes the government maybe start loosening faster, just because they're worried about how ... I mean, they have their constituency, and people who own property. They do care what they think, right?Chen:Yeah. That's certainly one thing they care about. And I think another thing they care about is the impact on economy, like the GDP, right? The housing and the real sector as a whole, if you found all the upstream industries all together, it'd account for probably one third of Chinese economy. Right? So if you kill the real estate sector, basically you kill the economy. And they can't do that. That's suicide.Bill:No. It's still a quarter of the economy. Right? So somewhere around there, if you add up all the various-Chen:Yeah. Depending on how you estimate, anywhere between 20% to a third, that's kind of the estimation. Yeah.Bill:So, Evergrande, there was a massive freak out over Evergrande. And I think it's maybe even a month ago, or a little longer. Did people overreact to what's going on at Evergrande. And what is going on there? And how do you think it gets resolved?Chen:Yeah. I think it has a little bit of sense that people were a little bit overreacting. I got called by Al Jazeera twice in two days, saying, "We need you to comment on Evergrande." I was like, "Come on, guys. You guys, yeah, are very respectful media TV, but you don't need to tell your audience in Qatar what's going on in Evergrande, in two days in a row. And one of that is a Sunday."Chen:So I was like, "Oh, this is really everywhere. Right? It's not just Bloomberg or Wall Street Journal. This has gone to non-financial media as well." And that was basically the main theme in the last week, or last two weeks of September. Right? So I think there was a little bit of overreaction, especially when you see headlines linking Evergrande to Lehman Brothers, and this sort of thing. And I have to say that this is at least the third time I hear a Chinese Lehman moment in the last ten years.Bill:I was just going to say, is the default analogy when ... Oh my God, China's Lehman moment. And we saw it. I remember it was, I think, 2013, when the interbank market basically went crazy, the end of Q2, early Q3. And I forget the other one. But, no, every time I see someone say, "China's Lehman market," basically, just to be honest, I just tune it out. Because it doesn't fit. And it never has. And if China has a big problem like Lehman Brothers, it won't be like Lehman brothers. It'll be something else, is my view.Chen:Yes, totally. And I don't know that even if Lehman Brothers exist today. I mean, if the same thing happens today, with the current federal reserve, with the current Fed chairman, that this will not have happened. Because they would just do QE.Bill:So what does happen with Evergrande? I mean, how does this thing get resolved?Chen:Evergrande, on the surface, just a very large company, over leveraged, and had a liquidity problem, maybe has solvency problem. We don't really know how much of its assets is real, or how much liability is real. Maybe its liability is a lot more than is stated. It says it has 2 trillion RMB liability, but if it has 2.5 trillion, then the company is insolvent, right? So we don't really know.Chen:And the thing is, we just start to see that this company started to have funding problem, since PBOC introduced the three red lines, because it failed in all the three. Banks were afraid of giving it money, and couldn't refinance in the bank market either. And the trust company, and the trust world that everyone saw, started to have problems. So, basically, with leverage at that size, you have to keep borrowing. To Evergrande, they're reducing the debt. And once that snowball stops moving, then basically you collapse, right? So I guess that's basically what it faced.Chen:And how we're going to resolve it, I think, in the best case scenario, that a lot of the estate projects will just ... First, they have to get it finished. And some of the land, or some other projects be sold to other developers. And Evergrande will downsize to a much smaller developer, and then will start to exist.Chen:And that's quite similar to what Wanda did. Wanda was a much bigger property developer five years ago. But then since has sold a lot of the projects, both in China and overseas. And, basically, right now, it's like a property management company, and doesn't have a lot of power assets. So that's what Wang Jianlin did to save himself, basically, and his company.Chen:So maybe, on Evergrande, if you're rational, you think that's a good scenario. But I think Hui Ka Yan doesn't want to give up. I think that he is betting on another big easing from Beijing. Right? Because he has been in this, I would say, in the live or die moment, at least twice in the last 15 years. Right? The first time I heard about Evergrande was 2007, right? I saw news that Hui Ka Yen was having drinks with the Hong Kong tycoons, and playing mahjong together. And, finally, he received a lot of money from the Hong Kong tycoons. And then that saved him in 2008, when the company was on the edge of collapse.Chen:And the second time was 2015. The company was again on the edge of collapse. And then it bet on a big easing from Beijing, and then property market turned around. It became much bigger. And I think, this time, Hui Ka Yen doesn't want give up. But he did say two weeks ago that he wants to move further from property developing, wants to become electricity car company. God knows whether he can succeed or not, but he's not going to just give up.Bill:Right. Right. No, he's the kind of ... I mean, that's why he's been so successful, and why he's been able to pull this off, right? I mean, he's just going to go until he can't go anymore. And it will be-Chen:Yeah, yeah. I think that the government ... Yeah. Sorry.Bill:No, go ahead. Go ahead, please.Chen:Yeah. I think from the government's perspective, the government would just want Evergrande to downsize, finish the existing projects, pay off your debt. It becomes a smaller company. And then your risk also is a lot smaller. But I'm not sure that's something that Hui Ka Yen has decided to do. Because then he will become a much less relevant person. Right?Bill:Right. And the government does also seem concerned now about the risks of defaults in the overseas debt markets. Right? I mean, it seems like this is the constant tension, right? They want introduce some discipline, and they want to avoid moral hazard, but they can't have a bunch of offshore bonds default in a short period of time. Right? Because then that potentially really screws up the market for them for a while, doesn't it?Chen:Yeah. That's actually an interesting point. Because when people ask me about Evergrande like a month and a half ago, and I was basically saying, "I think the dollar bond market matters the least for Beijing." Right? Because you have a different kind of creditors of Evergrande, right? You have the home buyers, who've paid, but they haven't received the houses. And then you have the construction firms and their workers. And you have the domestic banks, the domestic WMP holders, domestic trust companies. And they all matter a great deal for the Chinese financial system. And the last one is a hedge fund or someone who bought a bond in Hong Kong. But all of a sudden, they had a meeting a week ago, saying, "Hey, guys, we have to have a little bit discipline. Don't just run away. And you have to also take care of your offshore debt." I still haven't figured out why, what changed in their thinking. Maybe this is just a way to calm down the Wall Street. But why did they suddenly feel they have to calm down the Wall Street, six weeks after the crisis happened? I haven't figured out.Chen:My hypothesis is maybe some Wall Street bosses put some pressure on Chinese leadership. I did notice that a lot of the big bankers, and the big American company, and the senior executives had a video conference with Wang Qishan two or three weeks ago, in the name of the Xinhua advisory board.Bill:Right. Right, right, right. That's interesting. And I have to say, I find it very, very strange that the US Secretary of State, Blinken, brought up Evergrande a couple weeks ago, which he made some comment about hoping the Chinese manage ... I forget exactly, but it just-Chen:Well, he was asked by CNN, or someone. Yeah, he was asked.Bill:Oh, was it a response? He was asked? Okay. It just seemed like it was very out of his lane, in terms of what the Secretary of State would talk about. So-Chen:Yeah. He basically said, "People have to act responsibly."Bill:Interesting. I mean, I think it is interesting though. It definitely does seem to be a shift. So, speaking of shifts, I know we only have a few more minutes, but I'd love to get your thoughts on ... Again, this is something lots of people ... Outside of China, I know we're scratching their heads, but certainly folks I've talked to inside China too, are trying to really get their hands around, what does common prosperity mean? And, really, what changes, what policy direction are we really going to see around common prosperity? And there was that strange WeChat post that was from a very sort of Neo-Maoist-Chen:Li GuangmanBill:Yeah, yeah, the very Neo-Maoist blogger, that was picked up over the weekend by the online properties of Xinhua big state media properties, which caused a lot of consternation outside China, but I think inside China as well. And so it seems like the messaging is a little bit mixed, and there's obviously a lot of politics involved. But what do you see, or what's your guys' view, the point of view on what common prosperity means going forward?Chen:Well, we tend to think that common prosperity is next step after President Xi completed the poverty alleviation campaign, right? So after poverty alleviation, in theory, China should have no absolutely poorer people, right? Nobody's living in poverty anymore. And then what's the next step, right? That's not the end. Right? You get out of poverty, but you should get richer, and you have a better life.Chen:So I think that's something that he came up with after that, that we want everyone to have a more decent lifestyle. And, of course, he chose Zhejiang province, a province he spent five years as party secretary to be this pilot program, or pilot area for common prosperity. And the thing about Zhejiang was ... The thing Zhejiang published was rather, I would say, a standard, right? It basically said, "No, we want to increase the household time by one percentage point, or increase the GDP by certain percentage point. And then the equality among different cities should be restricted within a ratio, and people should be able to find the jobs very easily," blah, blah. So a lot like that.Chen:So it's still very pro growth, the Zhejiang plan. But we all know the common prosperity is not only about growth, it's also about redistribution, which is something Zhejiang did not mention very much in his own report, which is understandable. Because that requires tax policy changes that Zhejiang has no say. So Beijing has to decide what kind of tax, what you have to introduce, right? People talk about this property tax, and more pilot programs for property taxes. And then we talk about the consumption taxes. So this kind of stuff, Zhejiang has no say, right? So Beijing has to decide what exactly they're going to do with all these taxes.Chen:So there's certainly an element also about redistribution, restricting certain super rich, and especially those who got rich without behaving, how to say, legally, or you operate in gray area. For many years, there was no law or no regulation. You got rich, but maybe you broke the law. Right? So if you got rich through that channel, then maybe you have to rethink a little bit. Yeah. Or at least you have to change your model completely, because that's no longer tolerated. Right? Because the President did say, "We encourage everyone to work very hard to get rich. And that's great. But we also want to restrict people from getting rich using dodgy channels."Bill:Right. And I think that's what has certainly freaked out a fair number of people. Right? Because it's always unclear what the definition of dodgy or not legal actually is, and how far back they might go. And, that, I think also ties a bit into ... I know you guys have written a fair amount about all these various regulatory actions, and specifically around anti-monopoly policies and regulatory decisions, and also the changing approach to internet platform regulation.Bill:Are we in a new normal, when it comes to regulation? I talk to some people who think this is all passed, and it's going to get better again. But, to my perspective, it really feels like we're in a new era of this kind of stuff. And so, the big internet companies, their businesses are still good, but they're never going to be the same. And it feels like, their costs, they're going to have a lot higher cost base, because they're not going to be able to exploit workers and customers, like the way they used to be able to.Chen:Yeah. I think the compliance cost will certainly be a lot higher than before. And these regulations have passed. And they will stay here. They'll not go away. They'll not be rolled back. So I don't think there's anything like the end of the regulation, or the end of the regulatory competitor. There will be no end.Chen:But I do think maybe the peak is behind us. Think about the largest internet companies in China, Alibaba and Meituan were already punished for antitrust. And the Tencent was not directly affected by the trust, but the gaming thing was also mentioned, and a lot of other guys also name checked, like ByteDance, or Pinduoduo, they were also a little bit worried. So it is hard to say who will be bigger than Alibaba, who will be a bigger victim than Alibaba, it's very hard to ... Unless Tencent suddenly runs into a big trouble. But nobody else is bigger than Alibaba in the Chinese internet domain.Chen:So I guess, after these campaigns, maybe since we settled down a little bit, it will not be over, but we're likely to suddenly see another company find 18 billion RB immediately, or another large fintech company saying, "You have to dissolve, or you have to be separated into different arms." Nobody else is really as big as Ant Right? So I guess maybe we have passed a peak.Chen:And especially, this year, again, I think there's something different about this year, is since the very beginning, Xi made it very clear that this is a year that we don't have to worry very much about economic growth, because it's very easy. Right? They said the growth is targeted at 6% intentionally, which is a target they're going to reach anyway. Right? So, basically, they can do a lot of other things, like structural reforms, and some things they wanted to do in the past, but didn't have the time or the capacity. But, finally, this year, you can spend all your efforts in these things.Chen:But next year will be different again. But next year, actually, we'll go back to the normal China, that you have to be worried about growth target, right? Where is Beijing going to set the growth target? People are debating. I think it's still being something like five and a half percent. And I definitely don't think it'll be lower than 5%. And given the current trajectory, they have to change policy quite a bit to reach either target, especially…Bill:So you're saying, if they decide the target for next year is 5%, they'd have to ease up on some things for next year?Chen:Yeah. I think, five, there is a little bit. And if five and a half, they have to ease quite a lot. And that means you have to be a little bit nicer to companies in general. Right? So, last year in 2020, Xi had several symposiums with various people, and at least two with large companies, right? One, there was a foreign company, the other was all Chinese private firms.Chen:But, this year, at least on the record, I haven't seen any of these kind of symposiums with companies. Right? So he only does that when he's worried about the corporate sector. And, this year, he's not worried, apparently. But, next year, if he's worried again, he could come up, and then they'll have a conversation with these guys in person. And if he does that, then the crackdowns will be a lot softer, at least. Right?Bill:Interesting. So last question, I know you got to go, is what do you think we're going to see out of the sixth plenum, that investors and others should really be paying attention to, that starts ... I guess it starts on Monday and runs through, I think, Thursday next week, right?Chen:Yeah. Yeah. Well, the sixth plenum is all about one thing, right? It's this resolution about the accomplishments of the party in the last one, two years. Right? And I think the previous two resolutions, we had one in 1945, another in 1981, right? Maybe the 1981 one is more relevant, because of course that's more recent, and that was done by Deng Xiaoping. And, without the second, we wouldn't have known there would be another resolution. Right?Chen:But I think this time it's quite different. Because both in the first resolution, basically written by and approved by Chairman Mao, and the second one basically drafted and finally approved by Deng and Chen Yun and other old comrades. But they had to fight with a different ideology. Right?Chen:So in the first resolution, Chairman Mao was basically saying that the party made a lot of mistakes in the 1930s. Right? And ended up then with the Long March. And then we had the Zunyi conference. And then I had to be this poor core. And then the party was saved. Right? So there was a real fight between Mao and a lot of other guys, from Wang Ming and others. So he used that resolution to cement what happened in the party over the past 20 years or so, which was right and which was wrong. So that was basically that resolution was all about.Chen:And the 1981 resolution was similar. Right? So this old comrades had to ... They felt they had to come with something to summarize what happened since 1949, what was right, what was wrong? Where did chairman Mao did right? And where did he did wrong? And what we should do next? Right? So there was a lot of that. And also of course Hua Guofeng at the time was still relevant. Right? So he had to make sure that this 两个凡是, that whatever Mao said, we had to follow. Right? This is...Bill:Yeah, the two whateversChen:Yes. Yeah. So he had to crack that. So, in both occasions, there were clear things they had to correct. But, this time, I really don't think there's a clear thing that President Xi has to correct. Because no one is really arguing something else. And I think they usually talk about their mistakes, or some problems the party had since 1981. Maybe the biggest thing was what happened in the late '80s. Right?Chen:But since 1992, when Deng did this sudden speech, and everything was basically all about the reform, and open up, blah, blah. Of course, we had a little bit of chaos during the 18th party Congress, Bo Xilai and all these guys. But that, I think, was so minor, if you compare all the other accidents the party had over the last 100 years, right? Maybe it's only relevant in the last 40 years. So I think this all ...Chen:And also the name was a little bit different, right? The previous ones were all about resolutions on certain questions of the party's history. Right? And this one is not uncertain questions. There is no question. It is resolution on the party's accomplishments over the last 100 years, and the lessons. So I guess it's a big, big summary about what he has done. And, of course, this one I think will cement him as the core, right? And we have to follow whatever he thinks we should do so, and that's something definitely right.Bill:That's an interesting point, about if it's not actually about certain questions. And probably, certainly, if people want to ahead of this, I think reading that document ... I think it came out in August. It was basically a long piece about the party's accomplishments. I'm guessing that there'll be a lot in this resolution that is very similar to that language.Chen:Yeah, yeah.Bill:Right? I mean, it seems like it's a draft almost. And, really, like you said, it's not about settling a fight that's been going on, so much as more forward working. But so what does that mean? I mean, I assume this will tie into common prosperity. And I guess, this plenum, it really is going to be about this. There's probably nothing from a policy perspective that's going to affect the economy, or how investors should look at China in the near term, right?Chen:Yeah. I guess not that much in the near term. Well, of course, this one will set a stage for next year, where the big thing will happen. So the 20th party Congress, will get them to say, "No, we're going to follow this revolution, and then do whatever we should do in the next few years." Right.Bill:Great. Well, hey, I really appreciate your time. I think really want to thank you for being one of the first guest of Cynicism. And I will put a link to the Plenum website in the show notes. And I highly recommend anyone who is a financial market professional in China, you should go sign up for trial. Like I said, these guys, Chen Long and his team, and the Plenum research product is really quite terrific. So thanks again for your time. And I hope everything stays safe in Beijing. We see lots of headlines about COVID in Beijing right now. But I-Chen:Yeah, it is absolutely safe. If I go out, I may not be able to come back. So it's absolutely safe to stay here.Bill:Right. So you're probably not leaving Beijing until February, right? I mean, is it possible that you really can't leave before the Olympics?Chen:I think I can. I think, after next week, things may be a little bit relaxed. I think it's just partly because of next week, the sixth plenum.Bill:The plenum.Chen:And partly because the COVID clusters are still on the rise. But I think after next week, I might be able to travel a little bit.Bill:Great. Well, anyway, thanks again for your time. And I hope to talk to you soon.Chen:Yeah. Thank you, Bill. Yep. Get full access to Sinocism at sinocism.com/subscribe
Evergreen Partners, Jeff Otis and Louis Gave discuss concerns regarding the effects of global politics on investment portfolios. Crackdowns on big tech by Chinese regulators have broadly received negative attention from global investors, but Louis offers a more nuanced perspective to consider. Gavekal is Evergreen's research partner and keeps our investment committee up-to-date on developments in Europe and Asia that may not otherwise be as prompt or accessible to a U.S. firm. Listen in as we discuss these questions: How might social and political issues in Afghanistan impact markets? What should U.S. investors make of Chinese tech regulation? And, how should investors participate in China? Is now the time to consider Asian debt for your portfolio? As always, we hope you enjoy the listen! Prospective Client Compatibility Survey: http://www.invest.evergreengavekal.com/client-compatibility This material has been prepared or is distributed solely for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Any opinions, recommendations, and assumptions included in this piece are based upon current market conditions, reflect the personal opinions of the featured guest, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Evergreen Investment Committee as a whole. Investment decisions for Evergreen clients are made by the Evergreen Investment Committee. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk including the loss of principal. Securities highlighted or discussed in this piece have been selected based on current events and/or relevant topics and are not intended to represent Evergreen's performance or be an indicator for how Evergreen has performed or may perform in the future. Each security discussed has been selected solely for this purpose and has not been selected based on performance or any performance-related criteria. Evergreen's portfolios are actively managed and securities discussed in this piece may or may not be held in such portfolios at any given time.
China's role in global affairs is more important - and more complex - than ever. From geopolitics and economics to the battle against climate change, the country's participation in global issues presents investors with opportunities but also requires unwavering attention. Central to any analysis must be an understanding of how China hopes to portray itself and why the country seeks certain roles on the world stage. To discuss China's place in the world, Paras Anand, Global Chief Investment Officer for Asia Pacific, is joined by Louis-Vincent Gave, Founder and CEO of Gavekal, a leading independent provider of global investment research. With additional contributions from Arthur Kroeber, Gavekal's Head of Research, Velislava Dimitrova, a Fidelity portfolio manager, and Alice Li, an analyst based in Fidelity's Hong Kong office. Read more at fidelityinternational.com. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
China's role in global affairs is more important - and more complex - than ever. From geopolitics and economics to the battle against climate change, the country's participation in global issues presents investors with opportunities but also requires unwavering attention. Central to any analysis must be an understanding of how China hopes to portray itself and why the country seeks certain roles on the world stage. To discuss China's place in the world, Paras Anand, Global Chief Investment Officer for Asia Pacific, is joined by Louis-Vincent Gave, Founder and CEO of Gavekal, a leading independent provider of global investment research. With additional contributions from Arthur Kroeber, Gavekal's Head of Research, Velislava Dimitrova, a Fidelity portfolio manager, and Alice Li, an analyst based in Fidelity's Hong Kong office. Read more at fidelityinternational.com. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This episode, I spoke with Tom Miller, senior Asia analyst and senior editor at global investment research firm Gavekal. Tom is one of the foremost experts on China's Belt and Road Initiative, and we chatted about the recent evolution of the foreign policy strategy, and what he views as the misguided critique that the BRI is a form of debt trap diplomacy. Tom has also written two books on China: China’s Urban Billion: The Story Behind the Biggest Migration in Human History and China’s Asian Dream: Empire Building Along the New Silk Road. Amid the economic downturn caused by the pandemic, Tom shares his insights into some of the recent dips in BRI funding, and the shift in some funding towards more renewable power projects. Finally, he weighs in on whether the BRI can yet be called a success or a failure.
Recebemos o Roni, gestor de patrimônio de famílias de alta renda pra falar de bitcoin e o mercado financeiro, o que mudou de 2017 para 2020 e o report do Gavekal (uma das casas de research mais respeitadas no mercado financeiro). MINUTAGEM 00:00 Abertura e apresentação do convidado 01:28 O que é e como funciona um family office 05:09 O que é considerado uma família de alta renda 05:58 A demanda dos clientes do family office por bitcoin 08:08 O que é GBTC 10:28 Em quanto tempo e de que forma um possível consegue comprar a quantia desejada de BTCs 14:32 A custódia do GBTC 15:10 A mudança do perfil de 2017 para 2020 16:50 A influência da palestra do Salim Ismail 20:03 A diferença da perspectiva entre os bitcoinheiros e as pessoas do mercado financeiro tradicional 23:02 A forma distorcida de como se mede inflação 24:13 O sentimento dos clientes de family offices em relação ao atual cenário macroeconômico 26:55 O tema "herança" com bitcoin para os clientes de family offices 29:23 O tamanho da alocação em bitcoin dos clientes de family office 31:53 Os medos mais frequentes dos gestores do mercado financeiro com relação ao bitcoin 34:44 O report do Gavekal: uma das casas de research mais respeitadas no mercado financeiro https://bitcoinheiros.com/apoie/ Loja dos Bitcoinheiros https://loja.bitcoinheiros.com/ SIGA OS BITCOINHEIROS: Site: https://www.bitcoinheiros.com Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/bitcoinheiros Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/bitcoinheiros Allan - https://www.twitter.com/allanraicher Dov - https://twitter.com/bitdov Becas - https://twitter.com/bksbk6 Ivan - https://twitter.com/bitofsilence Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/bitcoinheiros Facebook: https://www.fb.com/bitcoinheiros Podcast: https://anchor.fm/bitcoinheiros APOIE O CANAL: - Dê uma gorjeta em Bitcoin: https://bitcoinheiros.com/apoie/ - Inscreva-se no canal - Deixe seu comentário no vídeo - Dê um like no vídeo - Compartilhe o vídeo e o canal com amigos e familiares na sua rede social - Envie um email com seu comentário e sugestões: bitcoinheiros@protonmail.com COMO GUARDAR SEUS BITCOINS? Bitcoinheiros recomendam o uso de carteiras Multisig com Hardware Wallets de diferentes fabricantes. Busque por "canivete bitcoinheiro" em nosso canal para saber mais. - COLDCARD - https://store.coinkite.com/promo/bitcoinheiros (use o código bitcoinheiros para ganhar 5% de desconto) - TREZOR E BITBOX02 PARA RESIDENTES NO BRASIL E AMÉRICA DO SUL Revendedor oficial: https://www.kriptobr.com/?afiliado=1288 Acesse com nosso link acima para ajudar o canal! ;) - TREZOR PARA RESIDENTES EM OUTROS PAÍSES https --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/bitcoinheiros/message
‘China has always taken seriously industrial policy and some degree of import substitution, and these US actions are now really kicking that effort in to high gear'. In this, our first Sanctions Space podcast episode, Justine Walker is joined by Dan Wang, Technology Analyst at Gavekal, to talk about China's role as a science and technology powerhouse, the impact and response of recent US sanctions on Chinese tech companies, and how ‘technology travels at the speed of beer'. Dan is a widely cited author on China's technology progress and how it is affected by US sanctions – you can find his bio and article archive at https://research.gavekal.com/author/dan-wang.
In this episode we discuss the growing attractiveness of non-US markets and large US technology stocks.Much of the recent rally has been led by the US market and large technology stocks in particular. While the crisis has created significant demand for video conferencing, social media and e-commerce, the rise in market value for many technology stocks has far exceeded their increase in profits.At the same time, big tech faces some political risk from the US election in November, with the potential for a regulatory backlash should the Democrats win a clean sweep. Any corporate tax hikes could also knock earnings. As such, the outlook for US stocks is less appealing. In this month’s Investment Show, we discuss why we are seeing greater opportunities outside the US. We believe emerging markets may be poised for a stronger run, benefiting from a weaker Dollar and lower valuations. Sources:Refinitiv Datastream, data as at 31 July 2020Have Equities Become A Bubble?, Gavekal, 10 July 2020Refinitiv Datastream, data as at 27 July 2020 LINKS*** Head to our website to read the full episode show notes https://bit.ly/3dk3OGB This episode was recorded on [date 29/07/2020] This S&W The Pulse podcast is of a general nature and is not a substitute for professional advice. No responsibility can be accepted for the consequences of any action taken or refrained from as a result of what is said. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the presenter or of Smith & Williamson or any of its affiliates. No reproduction of this podcast may be made in whole or in part for professional or recreational purposes. No action should be taken based on this podcast and we accept no liability if we change your views on any of the subjects mentioned.Capital at risk. Please remember the value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and investors may not receive back the original amount invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.Smith & Williamson Investment Management LLPAuthorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered No 580531
Hear from two Emerging Market Investment Professionals as they discuss their top industry challenges and the future opportunities for emerging economies as they see it. Speakers: Eric Anderson, Managing Partner & Head Of Investment Solutions, Milltrust International LLP. Mr. Anderson is Senior Portfolio Manager on the Global Emerging Markets Strategies and Head of Investment Solutions at Milltrust International LLP. He brings nearly two decades of international investment industry experience in the United States, Europe, and Asia. Mr. Anderson has spent nearly a decade focused exclusively on the Emerging Markets where he has extensive experience setting strategic fund allocations for institutional investors, researching local investment managers, providing investment research and full due diligence capabilities and structuring and seeding a number of fund strategies in these regions. Mr. Anderson has established a highly credible reputation within the Emerging Markets industry and is a frequent commentator at industry conferences and in the financial media. Mr. Anderson began his career as an auditor and performance analyst for fixed income, equity, and derivative products at State Street Global Advisors. Mr. Anderson is a candidate for CFA Level 3 and has a degree in International Economics from the University of California. Joyce Poon, Fixed Income Product Specialist, Gavekal. After graduating in business economics from University of California, Los Angeles, Joyce joined the Audit department of KPMG in Hong Kong, where she specialized in providing assurance related services to commercial banks and retail investment funds. With five years experience in public accounting, she left to help setting up a private equity company, with responsibility for fund administration and operations. In January 2006, Joyce moved to Gavekal, where she oversaw coverage of Asian economies and markets before becoming product manager for Gavekal Fixed Income products. She is a Certified Public Accountant in California and a Chartered Financial Analyst. James Pitcher, Chair for this event, is a senior securities operations manager, consultant and advisor, with over 35 years of investment banking experience. James was head of Network Management at Morgan Stanley for 10 years covering Europe, Africa, the Middle East and India. Interested in watching our webinars live, or taking part in the production of our research? Join our community at: https://bit.ly/3sXPpb5
In 1999, as a new century was nearly upon us, the Euro was born and the US tech bubble was in full sway, Louis Gave hung a shingle to start an independent research firm with his father, Charles. Twenty years later, Louis remains CEO of Gavekal, a firm that has helped institutional clients distill global market risk throughout different cycles. Our conversation focuses a good deal on China, an economy that Gavekal has carefully studied. Calling China the biggest macro story the world has ever seen, Louis and his team have had a front row seat on the economic transformation in China and the manner in which 400 million citizens have been lifted out of poverty. Through our discussion, we learn more about how China interacts with the global economy and specifically the stabilizing role that the country played during the financial crisis, as well as during the growth recessions of 2012 and 2016. Our conversation also focuses a good deal on inflation. Amidst the well-worn narrative that inflation shortfall is a global issue, Louis has interesting insights on the social tension that is resulting from higher inflation. He points to riots in Hong Kong, Chile and the Green Jacket uprising in France, all linked to inflation. In the US, Louis is skeptical that inflation is as hard to come by as commonly reported, noting that core CPI is essentially at a 10-year high. As fiscal and monetary policy are both working in the same direction around the world, is the price of inflation too low? Louis sees recency bias at work and a failure of market participants to appreciate the regime shift that may be in motion. He views the price of crude as critical to watch insofar as the outlook for inflation is concerned. We finish our discussion with Louis’ views on portfolio construction, citing caution for the long treasuries / long growth stocks allocation that has rewarded investors during the post-crisis period. Please enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Louis Gave.
When it comes to global macro investing, Louis-Vincent Gave is one of the most interesting thinkers in the world. His firm, GaveKal, puts out some of the most compelling research on Wall Street and beyond and, as CEO, Louis' unique investment process is at the heart of it. In this episode, he discusses his family tradition in both the French military and in the capital markets, how he developed his own signature investment framework and some of the key themes driving his current views on markets around the globe. For notes and links related to this episode visit TheFelderReport.com.
Subscribe to our weekly e-newsletter: blog.evergreengavekal.com Last Friday subscribers read Gavekal Research's piece, Investing for a New Cold War. Today on the Evergreen Exchange, listen to Evergreen CEO Tyler Hay interview Gavekal founder Louis Gave on this topic and more, complete with thought-provoking debate and lively banter. The conversation between Tyler and Louis provides clarity on an issue that has dominated the news during Trump's presidency: will China surpass the U.S. as the world's greatest economic superpower? Louis built his career in Hong Kong and was once even called one of the “smartest men in Asia” by Bloomberg. If you have a WSJ subscription, read his most recent interview with Barron’s: bit.ly/2xIXPbn Listeners can skip through the sections indicated below if they wish to revisit points or only hear certain topics. 3:00 Is this the new face of war? 4:15 The current tensions with China are not the beginning of WWIII, but rather a new cold war. 5:45 Chinese people’s view of the U.S. was one of admiration until recent rhetoric portrayed the U.S.’s overarching goal as stifling China’s economic growth. 11:30 Trump has shifted his focus sharply toward trade tensions to detract attention from more concrete unfulfilled campaign promises—literally concrete ones, such as the border wall. 14:00 The tech sector wanted better intellectual property rights enforcement; they were not prepared to be the battleground. 17:00 More Chinese young adults are attending college than their American counterparts, and there are approximately 10x as many pursuing degrees in S.T.E.M. (science, technology, engineering, mathematics) fields. 25:00 China fell into communism after 125 years of social unrest, as a protection against cultural instability. Now it has become apparent that China is a profoundly capitalistic country on which socialism was imposed. We are experiencing the correction of that misalignment. 38:00 There is no way to know what a potential deal with China would look like, as it will be completely dependent on who Trump runs against in the 2020 election. If it’s Biden, Trump would seek to demonstrate superior foreign negotiation skill. If it’s Bernie, he’d seek a deal that reinvigorates loyalty with the working class. The trade war is a tool for his reelection campaign. 41:00 We must decide whether or not we believe that central banks create wealth. Does encouraging one to spend tomorrow’s money today promote sustainable growth? 46:00 Increasingly, countries who trade with China are basing their currency against the renminbi, negating the trade of U.S. dollars. It is possible that we are seeing the peak of the dollar. DISCLOSURE: This material has been prepared or is distributed solely for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Any opinions, recommendations, and assumptions included in this presentation are based upon current market conditions, reflect our judgment as of the date of this presentation, and are subject to change. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk including the loss of principal. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed and Evergreen makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Securities highlighted or discussed in this communication are mentioned for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation for these securities. Evergreen actively manages client portfolios and securities discussed in this communication may or may not be held in such portfolios at any given time. Louis Gave’s has an equity ownership in Evergreen. Louis’ views and opinions are his own, and are not necessarily the views of Evergreen.
MacroVoices HOT TOPICS are a new offering in conjunction with MacroVoices Premium. Hot Topics interviews are scheduled and produced in reacting to events that come up in markets, independent of our regular podcasts in which the guests are usually scheduled in advance. Today’s Hot Topic is fund manager Kyle Bass’ recent investor letter questioning Hong Kong’s ongoing relevance in the global financial system. Louis-Vincent Gave runs Gavekal, a Hong Kong-based institutional advisor. In today’s Hot Topic interview, Louis offers an “opposing editorial” view, strongly at odds with Kyle Bass’ views on Hong Kong.
Anatole Kaletsky is co-chairman and chief economist of Gavekal Dragonomics, a Hong Kong-based investment research and asset management firm serving 900 global financial institutions. He is also a prominent economic commentator, director of JP Morgan Emerging Markets Investment Trust and a board member of the Open Society Foundations and of the Institute for New Economic Thinking. Before co-founding Gavekal in 2002, Kaletsky worked for 25 years as a journalist for the Economist, Financial Times, London Times, Reuters and the New York Times, winning numerous awards including European Journalist of the Year (1998), Newspaper Commentator of the Year (1996) and Specialist Writer of the Year (1981 and 1992). He now writes monthly columns for newspapers around the world in the Project Syndicate network and for Prospect Magazine in Britain. His book Capitalism 4.0, about the post-crisis transformation of the global economy, was nominated for the 2011 Samuel Johnson Prize. Kaletsky was educated at Cambridge, where he received a First Class Honours degree in Mathematics, and at Harvard, where he was a Kennedy Scholar, and received a MA in Economics. He is an honorary Doctor of Science from the University of Buckingham. Recorded at The Tabernacle in London in May 2018. 5x15 brings together five outstanding individuals to tell of their lives, passions and inspirations. There are only two rules - no scripts and only 15 minutes each. Learn more about 5x15 events: http://5x15stories.com Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/5x15stories Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/5x15stories Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/5x15stories
This episode focuses on the recent restructuring of China’s government, which was announced on March 20, 2018 during the 13 National People’s Congress. Our guest, Yanmei Xie, joins us to discuss the various aspects of this reorganization. She also analyzes the implications of these changes for Chinese foreign policy. Yanmei Xie is a senior China policy analyst at Gavekal, a global investment research firm, where she writes about China’s politics and their impact on the Chinese and global economy. She previously worked at the International Crisis Group as a senior analyst focusing on the Asia Pacific and China’s influence in Africa.
A global savings glut occurs when investors drive down interest rates. Is this trend coming to an end, meaning interest rates will climb? Do higher interest rates bring inflation? Today’s guest, Will Denyer, an economist at the financial research company Gavekal, explains how the global savings glut impacts inflation… and your pocketbook. What would you do if the market was flat? Generally, the markets are volatile, and smart investors try to mitigate risk by diversifying their assets. Asset allocation strategies try to protect your assets, no matter how the market turns. Have you ever asked yourself how your portfolio would do if the market was flat? Doug created a one-page resource to help you. Tricks to Making and Maintaining a Smart Asset Allocation designed to help investors better manage their asset allocation. Doug also helps a listener learn more about their 401k account. For more information about Separately Managed Accounts click here. Download free resource: Tricks to Making and Maintaining a Smart Asset Allocation Learn more about Will Denyer on Twitter or the Gavekal website. If you’re not already receiving updates on new episodes, sign up now, and as a special bonus, receive Doug’s free ebook The Retirement Planning Book.
With China’s plenum out of the way, what’s ahead for the Chinese economy? How much influence does the government have, and how successful has the transition to a consumer-based economy been? Finally, what does it all mean for the global growth and inflation outlook? Tian Yang of Variant Perception and Louis Gave of Gavekal weigh in. Plus, in the long/short segment, Grant Williams and Alex Rosenberg trade ICOs, Liberian leadership and lifeguard buffness. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
A note from Callum: I admire both of Tom Miller's books. He's one of the few people I trust to tell me what's happening over in China. His first book, China's Urban Billion, was published in 2012. I give him a lot of credit for this, because he defused a lot of the hysteria surrounding China's ‘ghost cities' at the time. His latest book is just as good, and very important if you're interested in geopolitics like me. It's called China's Asian Dream: Empire Building Along the New Silk Road. It's a look at China's ongoing rise to power, and the complicated relationships it has with its neighbours — and the US. There was a lot to talk about! By the way, Tom is also a senior Asian analyst with prestigious research house Gavekal. It costs a small fortune to subscribe to their stuff, so we're really lucky to hear him speak. We discussed… China's economy and the potential for a slowdown The sectors Tom would avoid when it comes to Chinese shares China's strategy with its ‘One Belt, One Road' infrastructure rollout The potential for Chinese President Xi Jinping to grasp further political power at the upcoming Party Congress Plus more!
Join Dr. Carlos as he discusses China's economy with Arthur Kroeber. China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know® is a concise introduction to the most astonishing economic growth story of the last three decades. In the 1980s China was an impoverished backwater, struggling to escape the political turmoil and economic mismanagement of the Mao era. Today it is the world's second biggest economy, the largest manufacturing and trading nation, the consumer of half the world's steel and coal, the biggest source of international tourists, and one of the most influential investors in developing countries from southeast Asia to Africa to Latin America.China's growth has lifted 700 million people out of poverty. It has also created a monumental environmental mess, with smog-blanketed cities and carbon emissions that are a leading cause of climate change. Multinational companies make billions of dollars in profits in China each year, but traders around the world shudder at every gyration of the country's unruly stock markets. Most surprising of all, its capitalist economy is governed by an authoritarian Communist Party that shows no sign of loosening its grip.How did China grow so fast for so long? Can it keep growing and still solve its problems of environmental damage, fast-rising debt and rampant corruption? How long can its vibrant economy co-exist with the repressive one-party state? What do China's changes mean for the rest of the world? China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know® answers these questions in straightforward language that you don't need to be an economist to understand, but with a wealth of detail drawn from academic research, interviews with dozens of company executives and policy makers, and a quarter-century of personal experience. Whether you're doing business in China, negotiating with its government officials, or a student trying to navigate the complexities of this fascinating and diverse country, this is the one book that will tell you everything you need to know about how China works, where it came from and where it's going.About the AuthorArthur R. Kroeber is founding partner of Gavekal Dragonomics, a China-focused economic research consultancy he established in Beijing in 2002 after 15 years as a freelance financial journalist in Asia, and editor of its flagship publication China Economic Quarterly. He is also head of research at the firm's parent company Gavekal, where he advises financial, corporate and government clients on economic and political developments in China. Kroeber is a senior non-resident fellow of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy, adjunct professor at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, and a member of the National Committee on US-China relations. He lives in Beijing and New York.
On August 24, 2015, global financial markets plunged following China’s “Black Monday,” the largest sell-off in the history of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Following a burst in the stock market bubble in June 2015, trillions of dollars were erased from the stock index throughout the summer, with the largest day of losses hitting on Black Monday. The sheer scale of the stock market crash, accompanied by weak manufacturing data and an unexpected devaluation of China’s currency exacerbated long held concerns by some economists that China’s economic development was unstable. In his new book, China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know, Arthur Kroeberargues that many of these fears are exaggerated. To understand the context of the current economic situation, Dr. Kroeber describes how the Chinese economy has evolved since 1979 and the initial reforms of the Deng Xiaoping era. The Communist Party of China has effectively managed the transformation of the economy. The Chinese leadership was able to learn from the examples of other East Asian “development states.” While there are considerable similarities, Dr. Kroeber notes that there are also profound differences between China’s development model and those of Japan and South Korea; the similarities and the differences have a profound impact on the prospects for China’s economy. As Western economies continue to struggle to rebound from the global financial crisis of 2008, worldwide economic progress has been dependent on China’s unprecedented economic successes. Some analysts fear that systemic flaws in China’s economy will undermine China’s economic potential. Join us as Arthur R. Kroeber discusses the Chinese economy as it moves in a consumer-driven direction amid demographic and environmental challenges, with the National Committee on May 18, in New York City. Arthur R. Kroeber is head of research at Gavekal, a financial-services firm based in Hong Kong, founder of the China-focused Gavekal Dragonomics research service, and editor of China Economic Quarterly. He divides his time between Beijing and New York. Before founding Dragonomics in 2002, he spent fifteen years as a financial and economic journalist in China and South Asia. The National Committee on U.S.-China Relations is the leading nonprofit nonpartisan organization that encourages understanding of China and the United States among citizens of both countries.
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