Asia Centric by Bloomberg Intelligence

Hong Kong is starting to look up. The Hang Seng Index has rebounded from last year’s lows and tourists are flocking to major musical and sporting events in the city's new stadium. Even expats – many of whom left for Singapore, London and elsewhere during the pandemic – appear to be returning. But structural challenges remain. The commercial property market is beset by record-high vacancy rates while retailers are reeling as residents find significant cost savings over the border in cities such as Shenzhen. And now we have the onset of US tariffs. What will it take for Hong Kong to recapture its reputation as Asia's vibrant, international city? Benjamin Quinlan, CEO of Quinlan & Associates and conference ambassador at the Hong Kong Tourism Board, says the city needs to double down on mega events. He joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The world's top economic and financial authorities descend on Washington this week for the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings. The focus this year is overwhelmingly on trade, as US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs hang over the event. And nowhere are levies more painful than in China, where the highest rates threaten economic growth. Arthur Kroeber, founding partner of research consultancy Gavekal Dragonomics and author of China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know, joins Katia Dmitrieva in Washington for a discussion about the new trade era, China's economic travails and how the trade stalemate with the US could end.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's been a wild few weeks in trade and markets. After unleashing reciprocal tariffs on the world, US President Donald Trump then walked them back, pausing the additional levies for every nation except China. Some exemptions were also carved out, including for iPhones. Negotiations have since ramped up with countries including Vietnam, which hope to scale down or remove the threat of tariffs altogether. Asia is perhaps the hardest hit region, given the scope of tariffs on China and how dependent the region is on trade. Economic growth, company profits and labor markets will take a hit – even without the tariffs in place, uncertainty alone is curbing investment. But there is a longer-term silver lining: the protectionist policies have pushed officials to consider a world in which they rely less on the US and more on domestic growth drivers. HSBC chief Asia economist Frederic Neumann sits down with Katia Dmitrieva to discuss tariffs, the countries that may be hit hardest and what this new world of trade looks like.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Global supply chains have reconfigured since the 2018-19 trade war, leading to a surge in renewable-energy demand in countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia as Nike and Samsung set up operations. This trend, coupled with population growth and the proliferation of AI-driven data centers, is projected to triple the demand for power in the next five years, according to Gavin Adda, CEO of Peak Energy. The subsidiary of Stonepeak, an infrastructure investment firm which manages more than $70 billion in assets, expects a big chunk of this energy demand will be met with renewable sources. Adda also sees Asian countries deregulating energy markets, opening up avenues for investments in solar and wind. He joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A duct-taped banana, a glass-encased tiger shark, a three-meter balloon dog – all selling for millions of dollars. For centuries, people have invested in art and their creators, with modern investors adding these “alternative assets” to portfolios. But global art auction turnover fell by about a third to $9.9 billion last year, according to Artmarket. It's also an increasingly tricky industry to navigate, with many sales private and some high risk, and scams not uncommon. So what are the wealthy buying these days, how safe are these investments, and what should they expect in terms of return? John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva sit down with Betsy Bickar, senior art adviser at Citi Wealth’s art advisory unit. The episode was recorded on March 25, prior to Art Basel Hong Kong, part of the city’s Art Week.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After underperforming for years, Chinese stocks are on a tear, rising more than 16% so far this year and outpacing many regional and global markets. The advance is led by growing optimism that technological breakthroughs like DeepSeek and a sustained pivot to consumption by Chinese officials will help boost demand. But there are questions about the sustainability of the rally. Have fundamentals for China really improved? And are investors ready to ditch US exceptionalism and Europe’s revival to invest in China equities? If the 2015 market rally and pullback is any guide, investors should brace for a near-term correction, even though equities have entered a bull market in the next 3-5 years, according to Winnie Wu, chief China strategist and co-head of China equity research at Bank of America. She joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Looming US auto tariffs are forcing tough decisions for the world’s biggest automakers, with firms already reeling from high borrowing costs and slower sales. Tesla’s been rocked by a political backlash and plunging sales, while Chinese EV manufacturers gain global market share and make big strides in autonomous driving. The levies – which could raise costs for companies and customers – present an existential threat to the industry, according to Steve Man, global autos and industrials research manager at Bloomberg Intelligence. He joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva to discuss the game-changing impact. Read Bloomberg News on how auto tariffs could shake up the industry (https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/ST2QSBT0G1KW) and Steve's full research (https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SSJQKHDWRGG0) on the Bloomberg Terminal.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investors are pricing in several interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year as growth slows and risks of a recession rise, but Gao Bin says they may be getting ahead of themselves. The CEO of Kaifeng Investment Management says the cuts will likely come -- but not until 2026. He's also taking a counter-narrative view on China, believing that consumer and tech companies will drive growth in 2025. Gao's macro hedge fund netted returns of more than 70% last year on these calls. He also discusses the outlook for China's economy this year, his favorite and least favorite equities and why running his fund out of Hong Kong rather than New York or London provides an edge as Asia's influence on financial markets grows.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The world’s multi-billionaires, from Elon Musk to Sergey Brin, are increasingly using family offices to manage their wealth – and it’s big business. With more than 8,000 family offices globally managing an estimated $3.1 trillion in assets, it’s set to rival the hedge fund industry in size. Major financial hubs -- from London to Dubai, Hong Kong to Singapore -- are actively competing to capture a slice of this booming market, offering enticing incentives to attract family offices. Dubai-based Ali-Abbas Merali, a partner at Azura Partners, discusses how and where the super-rich are investing their billions. He joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US economy appears indestructible. Since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008-09 and throughout the following downturns including the pandemic, consumption quickly bounced back, the labor market tightened and equity markets outperformed peers. This strength had investors coining the term “US exceptionalism” as it increasingly seemed that the greenback and other assets were the best game in town. But risks are building, from China’s DeepSeek cooling demand for AI stocks in the US to President Donald Trump’s tariffs that threaten inflation, spending and growth. Could these risks unseat the US exceptionalism trade? Is that era potentially behind us? Steve Brice, Global Chief Investment Officer of Standard Chartered Bank, doesn’t think so, and explains why he believes the trade is here to stay – at least for now. He joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The aviation industry has suffered numerous setbacks recently, from tragic accidents to production delays and quality issues at manufacturer Boeing. There are also looming challenges including slower economic growth globally that may curb spending and demand. But one corner of the industry has been thriving since the pandemic – aircraft leasing. Tim Bacchus, a veteran analyst with more than 30 years of experience in the aviation space, believes that profits in the aircraft leasing industry – the companies that purchase and rent these planes – could jump by more than 70% over the next three years. He joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China, the world's second-largest economy, is facing a demographics crisis. Its population fell in 2024 for the third straight year and is projected to halve by the end of the century, while marriages – tightly linked to childbirth in the country – plunged to a record low. The trend of declining birthrates and an aging population, which threatens the labor market and growth, comes even after the government lifted its one-child policy and added a raft of measures to support families.Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Ada Li spent more than a year gathering data from local governments and uncovering the cultural and social reasons behind the trends – with some startling conclusions. She speaks with John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva about why the government is unable to reverse the decline, how the cost of childcare is just one part of the problem, and why – surprisingly – it may not be so bad for consumer companies.Read Ada’s full research (https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SN47X8T0AFB7) and related news stories about Asia's baby shortage (https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/SM8W0PDWLU68) on the Bloomberg Terminal.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After many months of threats, the US has imposed 10% tariffs on all Chinese goods coming into the country and China retaliated immediately, launching an investigation into Google and putting its own levies on a range of American goods including LNG. Thus begins a new era of protectionism. The tariffs and any additional moves are set to slow economic growth in China, which is already struggling to boost consumer spending, reboot its property sector and lure more foreign investment. This is likely just the beginning, with higher levies to come in a repeat of the 2018-19 trade war. Despite the headwinds, Chinese President Xi Jinping still has a lot of tools at his disposal. Helen Qiao, chief economist for Greater China at Bank of America, joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva to gauge the impact in the world's second largest economy and what could lay ahead.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investing in Asia after its financial crisis of 1997, or in the US following the dot-com bubble or the GFC, would have delivered good performance over the following decade, says Daniel Rupp, CIO and founder of Parkway Capital. Daniel joins John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast to discuss why he launched an Asia-focused long-only fund at the beginning of 2024 – at the height of investor pessimism toward China. He also sees vast stock picking opportunities across the region and discusses why active rather than passive management might make more sense in Asia than the US.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump is set to disrupt trade across Asia in a repeat of his previous administration, but things are different this time around. He’s expanding his focus beyond China, targeting countries he says pose national security threats or have large trade deficits with the US. Many countries across Asia that benefited from the last trade war may find themselves in the crosshairs. In other words, it's set to be a lot more complicated this time. Sonal Varma, chief economist Asia ex-Japan at Nomura Singapore, joins Katia Dmitrieva and John Lee to unpack what the next four years may look like for Asia.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Financial markets have been captivated by AI's opportunities since the launch of ChatGPT two years ago. Huge investments have flowed into established chip companies and the hyperscalers that make the infrastructure supporting AI – from Nvidia and TSMC to Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon. But what about the frontier companies that could flourish as AI enters a new era? And why is Asia an ideal petri dish for this activity? Esther Wong, founder of 3C AGI Partners, one of Asia's first AI-focused venture capital funds, and formerly a managing director at SenseTime, discusses the next phase of this technology and shares her outlook on the industry – data centers in space may not be as far-fetched as you think. She joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

South Korea's short-lived martial law and impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol has shocked the world and crushed confidence in Asia's fourth-largest economy. Even before these events, the country was suffering from sluggish economic growth combined with the worst-performing stock market and currency in the region throughout 2024. What's next for South Korea's political process and what will it take to revive its financial markets? Hyosung Kwon, an economist at Bloomberg Economics in Seoul, joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva to discuss the political and economic risks that lie ahead for South Korea.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's that time of year when we look to what the next 12 months have in store. Currencies are set to weaken against a strong dollar, so which ones may provide a degree of safety? Equities outperformed in 2024 but tariffs hang over trade-sensitive countries and the tech and AI sectors may have peaked. Where can investors find the most value? And geopolitical risk and a new US-China trade war have yet to be fully priced into the market, so what does that mean for credit? Asia Centric convenes a panel of Bloomberg Intelligence analysts to preview 2025. Joining hosts John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva this week are Stephen Chiu, chief Asia FX and rates strategist, Marvin Chen, senior equity strategist, and senior credit strategist Timothy Tan.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hong Kong nightlife isn't what it used to be, with fewer revelers spending less than in the pre-pandemic boom – indicative, perhaps, of wider political and demographic changes taking place in the city. Yet entertainment and property mogul Allan Zeman – known as the “father of Lan Kwai Fong” after the bar area he established in the 1980s – remains upbeat and optimistic. Despite business being slower and rents lower, he welcomes the influx of mainland visitors as new tenants adapt to the changes. For Zeman, Hong Kong is far from over. He joins hosts John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast to discuss Hong Kong's changing landscape. Patrick Wong, senior property analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, also outlines the challenges facing office landlords and luxury retailers – and reveals who stands to gain.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US President-elect Donald Trump is already providing a preview of what's to come for US-China relations when he enters the White House, appointing several China hawks to his team and vowing to impose additional tariffs. Stephen Roach, economist and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, believes the world should take Trump at his word over tariff threats and that it signals his second term could be more contentious than the first.Roach also defends his controversial comments earlier this year that "Hong Kong is over" as ties with the mainland strengthen and the economy remains weak. He joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Falling interest rates could spark a return to real estate M&A deals across the Asia-Pacific region, according to Ivy Ng, APAC Chief Investment Officer at DWS Group. Ng joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast to break down where she sees the biggest opportunities and risks, and argues the worst may be over for the sector.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

President-elect Donald Trump's sweeping election victory and cabinet appointments point to more protectionist policies and market volatility, with broad implications for Asia. China is firmly in the crosshairs, but previous US efforts to contain its advance -- particularly in technology -- have largely faltered, according to Bloomberg Economics and Bloomberg Intelligence.  Tom Orlik, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics in Washington, D.C., joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva to outline what the next four years may bring for the global economy and US-China relations -- and the potential risks.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Food trends across Asia are shifting rapidly with declining populations, wealthier consumers eating more meat and climate change upending supply and prices. China is set to be overtaken by India as the world's number one driver of food demand, according to the UN, further shifting the picture. Darin Friedrichs, co-founder of Sitonia Consulting, speaks with Bloomberg Intelligence's John Lee and Bloomberg News' Asia economics correspondent Katia Dmitrieva about how best to navigate the changes to come.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China could deploy more stimulus -- and officials have more policy space and tools to do so than many other major economies, according to Weijian Shan, Executive Chairman of PAG, an Asia-based investment firm with more than $55 billion in assets under management. Despite being bullish on China's growth prospects, Shan says the nation still needs to find a way to pivot toward the consumer. Shan, who grew up in China during the Cultural Revolution and later counted Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen as his PhD adviser in the US, shares his thoughts on the world's second-largest economy and investment opportunities in Japan. He also discusses some of his biggest deals, including the $8 billion investment into one of the world's largest shopping mall managers. He joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Reports of active management's demise have been greatly exaggerated. Active continues to grow and evolve in ETFs while mutual funds prosper and define benefit plans. Bloomberg Intelligence strategy team uncover active opportunities and glean insights from active managers and those who cover the industry. Listen to Inside Active by Bloomberg Intelligence. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Artificial intelligence is fueling demand for data centers across Asia, with capacity set to double in the next four years, according to Moody's. Projesh Banerjea, KKR director and Southeast Asia infrastructure lead, joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast to discuss how investors can best tap into that growth – and how it can get complicated.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Taiwan's president Lai Ching-te gave his first National Day address last week, vowing he'd stand up to mainland China while maintaining the status quo of peace and stability. The speech elicited a swift response from Beijing, reminding investors of the ongoing geopolitical risks in the region. David Sacks, Asia Studies Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, speaks with John Lee from Bloomberg Intelligence and Katia Dmitrieva from Bloomberg News about key takeaways from the speech and what it means for Taiwan's red hot equity market.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

People love their pets, so much in fact that the industry is set for serious growth as owners purchase higher-end goods and services. Not only are they upgrading the food they buy but are also embracing services such as healthcare and even elderly care for their beloved cats and dogs. Ada Li and Diana Rosero-Pena from Bloomberg Intelligence speak with Bloomberg News' Katia Dmitrieva to discuss where the industry is heading. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The world's population is likely to peak in the next 60 years and nowhere is this trend felt more than Asia, with countries such as South Korea and Japan registering some of the lowest birth rates and oldest populations. Wei Li, Global Chief Investment Strategist at BlackRock, discusses the role demographics plays in investing and why it may be the most important megatrend. She joins John Lee of Bloomberg Intelligence and Katia Dmitrieva of Bloomberg News on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Central banks got the green light to begin easing policy last week after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by more than expected. Officials across Asia have perhaps been the most eager to move lower, but in this new era, each country faces a different path forward for monetary policy. John Lee from Bloomberg Intelligence and Katia Dmitrieva from Bloomberg News speak with Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis SA, about what the Fed cut means for the region.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investing, stocks, commodities, crypto and everything in between. This biweekly podcast with a focus on exchange-traded funds will guide you through the financial markets in Asia and beyond. Sponsored by HKEX.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AI has been hailed as a transformative technology with McKinsey estimating it could add $26 trillion to the global economy. While many investors have already jumped on the AI bandwagon, not everyone agrees. Daron Acemoglu, Institute Professor at MIT and author of books including Why Nations Fail, takes a critical look at AI and explains why the economic and social benefits may have been overstated. He joins John Lee of Bloomberg Intelligence and Katia Dmitrieva of Bloomberg News on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Shareholder activism is gaining traction in Japan, with the number of new campaigns surging by 70% in the first half of 2024. At the same time, homegrown activist funds are becoming more prominent in Japan's corporate circles. Shuhei Furukawa, managing director and portfolio manager at Misaki Capital, and James Han, managing partner at Prodigies Group, join John Lee of Bloomberg Intelligence to discuss this growing trend and how it differs to what's happening in the US.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

India's economy is the darling of emerging markets, with a burgeoning middle class, a rising population and rapid growth set to outperform all large peers this year. But recent data suggest cracks are forming, with less government spending and a slowdown in factory output. Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics and a long-time critic of India's growth story, joins hosts John Lee of Bloomberg Intelligence and Katia Dmitrieva of Bloomberg News to explain why he believes investors are underestimating the slowdown to come.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hong Kong's wealth management is booming as rich mainland Chinese investors pour in funds. The city's offshore wealth-under-management industry now amounts to more than $2.2 trillion, the second largest in the world, and is approaching Switzerland's level. What's driving these rich Chinese to invest overseas, and how will China's economic slump impact future flows? Lemuel Lee, Head of Wealth Management Hong Kong at BNP Paribas, and Sharnie Wong, Senior Financials Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, discuss these issues with host John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A rate hike from the Bank of Japan combined with weak US economic data coalesced to cause the biggest one-day sell off in stocks since 1987. What does this mean for monetary policy in Japan and the US? And how could investors position themselves for the uncertainty ahead? Gareth Nicholson, Chief Investment Officer and Head of Managed Investments at Nomura International Wealth Management, joins co-hosts John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Uranium prices have skyrocketed as demand surges for nuclear power globally and traders fret about a potential shortage. China is Asia's biggest user of nuclear energy, while countries such as Australia are still debating whether to embrace it. Investors have been piling into mining companies and uranium ETFs, but is this the best way to capitalize on the demand? And what are the risks to the seemingly bright outlook? Asia Centric hosts John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva discuss these issues with Mohsen Crofts, senior metals and mining analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Leonard Quong, head of Australia research at BloombergNEF.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We're about halfway through the year and China's economy is still struggling to regain momentum after the housing bubble burst and consumers pulled back. A major policy meeting in China that wrapped last week did little to assuage concerns, with officials focused more on the long term. The US presidential election could have big implications for trade and tariffs.   Andrew Tilton, chief economist for the APAC region at Goldman Sachs, joins host Katia Dmitrieva for a check-in on the world's second-largest economy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Global investors are piling into Japan, betting the economy has finally broken out of its economic stagnation. How will the return of inflation transform the country's economy and is it sustainable? Can Japan's efforts to improve its corporate governance meet high investor expectations? And what are the key industries investors should watch out for? Taro Kimura, Senior Japan Economist and former Bank of Japan veteran, and Takeshi Kitaura, Senior Industrials Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, join John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China is building closer economic ties with the Gulf countries, with Saudi Arabian companies announcing deals to acquire stakes in Chinese firms including Lenovo and Hengli Petrochemical, while China is promising to build factories in the region. So how will this create investment opportunities? Can China help transform Saudi Arabia's economy through its ambitious 2030 vision? And how will US-China tension impact the relationship? Ziad Daoud, Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Bloomberg Economics, and Edmond Christou, Senior Financials Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, join host John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hong Kong's economy is under attack from all sides -- from a $270 billion residential and office property price slump in the past five years to a retail sector reeling under pressure from mainland China competition. What will it take for the city to regain its gusto? Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, joins John Lee and Katia Dmitrieva on the Asia Centric podcast to share his take on where Hong Kong is heading.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was forecast to win his country's election by a landslide, but was instead forced to form a coalition government and share power with allies for the first time since coming to power in 2014. So how will the shock election result affect India's growth trajectory? And what does it mean for its red-hot equity markets? Abhishek Gupta, India Economist at Bloomberg Economics, and Nitin Chanduka, India Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, join John Lee and Ishika Mookerjee on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.