Sinica Podcast

This week on the Sinica Podcast, I chat with Yawei Liu, Senior Advisor for China at the Carter Center in Atlanta, Georgia, and Yukon Huang, former China country head of the World Bank and now Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The show was taped live at the 2025 Columbia China Summit at Columbia University, put on by the Columbia University Greater China Society, on April 13,. Special thanks to them for inviting us to attend!3:53 – Columbia University's history with China 7:52 – How Beijing views the current trade war 11:32 – Yawei's idea of “the clash of misperceptions”18:18 – The actual origins of America's trade deficits and China's trade surpluses 23:14 – How the inevitable talk between Trump and Xi Jinping may play out32:04 – Sinophobia versus changing attitudes toward China 35:43 – How the current trade war is related to innovation in China 45:31 – How we can wage peace Paying It Forward: Nicholas Zeller and his Substack newsletter, The U.S.-China Perception MonitorRecommendations:Yawei: Americans in China: Encounters with the People's Republic ed. by Terry Lautz, and Chinese Encounters with America: Journeys That Shaped the Future of China ed. by Terry Lautz and Deborah DavisYukon: David Brooks' April 2022 article, “The End of Globalization: The Dominance of Global Cultural Wars” Kaiser: The Weimar Years: Rise and Fall 1918-1933 by Frank McDonough See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I chat with Hazza Harding, a young Australian who began learning Chinese and made his way to China where he became a pop singer with hits on Chinese pop charts and a state media newscaster — and also lost his husband tragically, suffered through the COVID lockdowns while grieving for his loss. Yet he remains committed to furthering understanding and engagement, and has shown admirable resilience. Read his remarkable essay on his experiences here.6:51 – How Hazza started in China, and how his career changed throughout his time there 19:27 – Hazza's experiences feeling alienated in China 27:00 – Hazza's experience working in Chinese state media 34:04 – How China shaped Hazza and Wayne's love story, and how grief has shaped Hazza's perspective on life56:08 – The loveliness of everyday interactions 58:43 – Hazza's advice on giving oneself time and leniency 1:02:38 – How Hazza may find his way back to China in the future Paying It Forward: James Laurenceson at UTS Sydney Recommendations:Hazza: China Blonde: How a newsreader's search for adventure led to friendship, acceptance… and peroxide pandemonium in China by Nicole Webb Kaiser: The TV series Xi Bei Sui Yue (Into the Great Northwest) (2024 - )See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I chat with Jeffrey Ding, author of Technology and the Rise of Great Powers, a book that argues that a nation's ability to invent foundational technologies matters ultimately less in its overall national power than its ability to diffuse those "general purpose technologies," like electricity, digital technology, the internet, and — in the age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution — Artificial Intelligence. I ask Jeff whether he thinks that China, with its powerful tech companies and its new enthusiasm for open source, may at last be closing what his book identifies as a diffusion deficit.2:19 – Jeff's argument for the power of diffusion in technological leadership6:07 – China's diffusion deficit 12:09 – Institutional factors that affect technology diffusion, and how culture can also play a role 19:49 – China's successes in (non-GPT) diffusion 24:29 – China's open source push 29:55 – Discussing He Pengyu's piece on semiconductors 32:19 – How Jeff might tweak his chapter on China in a second edition of Technology and the Rise of Great Powers Paying It Forward: Matt Sheehan of the Carnegie Endowment for International PeaceRecommendations:Jeff: The TV series The Pitt (2025 - ); and James Islington's The Will of the Many Kaiser: The album Perpetual Change by Jon Anderson and The Band Geeks; and Steven Wilson's new album, The OverviewSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on the Sinica Podcast, I chat with Jeremy Garlick, Director of the Jan Masaryk Centre for International Studies, Prague University, and a scholar of China's international relations. Jeremy is the author of the book Advantage China: Agent of Change in an Era of Global Disruption, but the book we're talking about this week is his new Cambridge Element titled Evolution in International Relations. It's a fascinating attempt to apply ideas from evolutionary biology, evolutionary psychology, and archaeogenetics to further our understanding of how nations interact.6:13 – Why Jeremy decided to apply an evolutionary framework to IR 15:34 – Why evolutionary science hasn't really been integrated into IR19:32 – How Jeremy views his project as refining the IR field 22:43 – The risk of the misappropriation of Jeremy's work, and the evolutionary elements of cooperation and intergroup competition 28:54 – How to avoid the trap of viewing evolution as teleological 34:07 – The idea of self-domestication 39:55 – Morality and human rights 45:17 – How emotions affect decision-making and diplomacy 50:32 – Hierarchy and status-seeking in IR 56:56 – Applying an evolutionary framework to the IR phenomena of alliances, nuclear deterrence, and strategic balancing 1:01:31 – Altruism toward out-groups 1:05:57 – The inevitability of competition with China 1:08:19 – The intellectual challenges Jeremy faced while working on this project, and what he would develop further in the future1:12:51 – Jeremy's thoughts on what IR as a discipline should address, integrating evolutionary science Paying It Forward: Richard TurcsányiRecommendations:Jeremy: The WEIRDest People in the World: How the West Became Psychologically Peculiar and Particularly Prosperous by Joseph Henrich; and The Expanse novels by James S. A. CoreyKaiser: Playground by Richard Powers See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week, a special episode taped live at the University of California, Berkeley — my alma mater — on March 6 and featuring Jessica Chen Weiss of Johns Hopkins SAIS and Ryan Hass of the Brookings Institution, both well-known to people who follow U.S.-China relations. This episode was made possible by the Center for Chinese Studies at UC Berkeley's Institute for Asian Studies, and will be available on video as well — I'll update with the link.5:32 – Looking back on the Biden administration's approach to China12:28 – Attempting to outline the new Trump administration's approach to China20:34 – The view from Beijing of Trump 2.026:54 – The Kindleberger Trap (and other "traps")29:35 – China, the U.S., and the Russo-Ukrainian war, and the idea of a “reverse Kissinger” 34:23 – The problem with framing objectionable Trump policy moves as ceding victories to China 36:51 – How countries in the Western Pacific region are responding to the new administration 38:48 – Taiwan's concerns for Trump's shift on Ukraine41:45 – Predictions for how the Trump administration will handle technology competition with China, and the apparent abandonment of industrial policy 48:14 – What the affirmative vision for U.S.-China policy should look like Paying It Forward:Ryan: Patricia Kim and Jon Czin at BrookingsJessica: Jeffrey Ding at George Washington University and Jonas Nahm at Johns Hopkins SAIS Recommendations:Jessica: The movie Conclave (2024)Ryan: Derek Thompson's piece in The Atlantic, “The Anti-Social Century,” and Robert Cooper's The Ambassadors: Thinking about Diplomacy from Machiavelli to Modern Times Kaiser: The Man Without Qualities by Robert Musil See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week, I'm proud to announce a new collaboration with Trivium, a China-focused strategic advisory firm you've probably heard of. They've got offices in DC, London, Shanghai, and Beijing, and they focus on analyzing and forecasting Chinese policy developments for multinational companies and institutional investors across a range of verticals -- including macroeconomics, technology, automotive, resources, renewable energy, critical minerals, and green technology. They put out a terrific podcast each week, and you'll be able to listen to it here or subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Just search for the Trivium China Podcast.On today's show, you'll hear a half-hour chat between me and the two co-founders, Andrew Polk and Trey McArver, which we taped ahead of the Two Meetings — the NPC and the CPPCC. Then you'll hear a conversation between Andrew and his colleague Dinny McMahon, who you've heard on the show before in an episode we did on the digital yuan, talking about what came out of the Two Meetings.You'll be hearing from lots of the great folks at Trivium in coming episodes, so be sure to tune in.Beginning next week, or possibly sooner, we'll also be running a regular economy-focused roundup put together by Andrew and the team at Trivium. That will come out on Fridays.A warm welcome to Trey, Andrew, and all the excellent people at Trivium!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week: Part 2 in a series of podcasts in conjunction with the China Research Center at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). The series, titled "Studying China in the Absence of Access: Rediscovering a Lost Art," ran from September to November 2021, and featured four eminent "Pekingologists," or specialists in Chinese elite politics: Joseph Fewsmith, Thomas Fingar, Alice Miller, and Fred Teiwes. The talks were later published in a volume you can download here. The series is introduced by Andrew Mertha, George and Sadie Hyman, Professor of China Studies and director of the SAIS China Research Center, and each lecture includes a moderated discussion with Andy. After this series, I'll also be sharing with you a second series of lectures titled "Studying China from Elsewhere," which will include talks by Maria Repnikova, Mike Lampton, William Hurst, and Maggie Lewis — many of whom Sinica listeners will know from the show.Alice Lyman Miller is a leading scholar of Chinese politics and foreign policy. A research fellow at the Hoover Institution and lecturer in East Asian Studies at Stanford University, she previously served as an analyst at the CIA and editor of China Leadership Monitor. Miller's work has been instrumental in decoding the opaque world of Chinese elite politics, with a particular focus on political discourse and leadership transitions. Her major publications include Becoming Asia: Change and Continuity in Asian International Relations Since World War II (2011).Joseph Fewsmith is one of the foremost experts on contemporary Chinese politics, known for his in-depth analysis of political reform, elite competition, and policy shifts under the Chinese Communist Party. A professor of international relations and political science at Boston University, Fewsmith has authored seminal books such as China Since Tiananmen: The Politics of Transition (2001) and Rethinking Chinese Politics (2021), which challenge conventional wisdom on China's political system. His work blends rigorous historical analysis with close readings of official discourse. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica: February 24 marks the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and as I've done for the last two years, I moderated a panel organized by Vita Golod, a Ukrainian China scholar who happens to be here in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, at UNC as a visiting scholar. She's worked tirelessly to promote awareness of the war, and I'm honored again to have been asked to moderate this panel.The guests you'll hear from are:Dr. Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova, Director of the China Studies Centre at Riga Stradins University in Latvia. Fluent in Chinese, Russian, and English, she has collaborated with scholars like Kerry Brown of King's College London and has done extensive work on China's role in Europe and beyond.Dr. Dmytro Yefremov, Associate Professor in the Department of International Relations at the National University "Kyiv-Mohyla Academy" in Ukraine. A board member of the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists, he specializes in China's foreign relations and has traveled extensively to China, providing firsthand insight into Ukraine's perspective on China's role in the war and beyond.Dr. Qiang Liu, Director of the Energy Economics Division at the Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics within the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). He also serves as the Co-chair and Secretary-General of the Global Forum on Energy Security. His research focuses on energy security, energy economics, and policy, with a particular emphasis on China's Belt and Road Initiative and its global energy partnerships.Dr. Klaus Larres, Richard M. Krasno Distinguished Professor of History and International Affairs at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. An expert on transatlantic relations, U.S., German, and EU foreign policy, and China's role in the post-Cold War order, he has a profound interest in the history of the Cold War and the politics of Winston Churchill.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I chat with David Zweig, a veteran China scholar who is Professor Emeritus from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. We discuss Davis'd latest book, The War for Chinese Talent in America, which looks at Chinese efforts to harness the intellectual firepower of Chinese scientists and engineers who studied abroad, especially in the United States, and bring them — or at least their knowledge —back to China. David's book takes a balanced look at both the very real problems generated by Chinese policies as well as the overreaction by the U.S. Department of Justice in the form of the infamous China Initiative. 3:40 – Why got David interested on this particular topic 7:07 – The diaspora option12:09 – The Thousand Talents Program/Plan18:28 – How the talent programs operate23:48 – Motivations for Chinese to participate in the talent programs, how geopolitics now impacts these decisions, and what the effect of the China Initiative has been on collaboration 36:29 – The China Initiative's climate of fear and the concern for racial profiling 49:40 – The extent of the validity of U.S. security concerns57:24 – David's suggestions for balancing national security interests and open scientific exchange Paying It Forward: Dan Lynch and his book, China's Futures: PRC Elites Debate Economics, Politics, and Foreign PolicyRecommendations:David: It's a Wonderful World — The Louis Armstrong Musical in New YorkKaiser: The Invention of Yesterday: A 50,000-Year History of Human Culture, Conflict, and Connection by Tamim Ansary, especially the audiobook read by the authorSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

I'm delighted to bring you today the first in a series of conversations from a remarkable day-long session put on by the Institute for America, China, and the Future of Global Affairs, or ACF, at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). The session was held on Monday, February 3, and was called “Getting China Right.” On today's show, we've got U.S. Senator Andy Kim of New Jersey, one of the best-informed and sensible legislators focused on China today. He'll be in conversation with James Steinberg, dean of SAIS, who also served as Deputy Secretary of State from 2009 to 2011. You'll hear introductory remarks from Jim and from Jessica Chen Weiss, inaugural faculty director ACF and David M. Lampton Professor of China Studies at SAIS, who listeners certainly know from her appearances on Sinica. More to come in this series, so stay tuned! Please enjoy Senator Kim's very thoughtful remarks.Watch the morning sessions on YouTube here.The Institute for America, China, and the Future of Global Affairs (ACF) of the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) was established in 2024 to add rigor and reason to public and policy discussions on China and the range of domestic and international issues that intersect China's global role, bringing together experts and practitioners to foster informed public dialogue, promote evidence-based research, and support the next generation of scholars and practitioners. ACF was founded with the support of Johns Hopkins University and philanthropic contributions from across the United States.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I chat with economic historian Andrew B. Liu of Villanova University about how to understand Trump's thinking on China and tariffs. Andy wrote about this in an excellent piece on N+1 called "Back to the 80s? Trump, Xi Jinping, and Tariffs." Check it out and then listen to the show!3:59 – How the U.S.'s current trade anxieties echo those of the ‘80s9:34 – How Cold War geopolitics shaped U.S.-Japan trade relations18:23 – The lessons China learned from Japan's experience and how it has shaped its recent economic strategy 21:03 – What Xi Jinping's vision for the Chinese economy actually looks like 34:26 – Why China is favoring a more Ford-like model of industrial structure41:28 – Michael Pettis's ideas from Trade Wars Are Class Wars and points of critique 52:44 – The Trump administration's use of tariffsPaying It Forward: Viola Zhou's reporting on Rest of World (especially her piece on Foxconn in India) and Dong Yige Recommendations:Andrew: Hetty Lui McKinnon's Substack for vegan modern Cantonese recipes Kaiser: The Substack of the Carter Center's U.S.-China Perception Monitor; and the essay “The new frontline: The US-China battle for control of global networks” on the Transnational Institute websiteSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week as we enter the Year of the Snake, Sinica co-founder Jeremy Goldkorn makes a re-appearance on the show. It's been a year since his last, and much has changed — and indeed, if Jeremy is right, we may be at an inflection point in American attitudes toward China. With the "TikTok Refugees" on Xiaohongshu or "RedNote" taking in a view of China that contrasts starkly with the image presented by the U.S. Government and by many American media outlets, and with DeepSeek now having upended some ideas about American tech primacy, the "vibes" on China among young people seem to have changed for the better. Will it endure? Jeremy and I plunge into that question on this week's episode of the Sinica Podcast.2:55 – What Jeremy has been up to lately 4:19 – What has been driving the recent narrative/vibe shift in China discourse in the U.S., and why human rights rhetoric around Xinjiang has died down 14:11 – Whether the narrative/vibe shift will be long-lasting and the role of young people in driving it 23:06 – Predictions for future changes within China29:40 – The concern that the narrative/vibe shift could go too far, or that the copium will overwhelm the positive of the shift 33:24 – Previous narrative shifts around freedom of speech, the internet, and China, and technological innovation 43:57 – What recent developments reveal about Chinese soft power, and Jeremy's predictions for how everything will play out 49:34 – Whether the narrative/vibe shift will change how American politicians talk about China, and the Chinese government has reacted to the shift so farPaying It Forward: Savannah Billman's Career China email newsletter Recommendations:Jeremy: Paul Cooper's Fall of Civilizations podcast series; David Kidd's Peking Story: The Last Days of Old China; and The 404's podcast interview with a PornHub exec (which includes discussion of real-name registration requirements) Kaiser: The TV miniseries American Primeval (2025) on Netflix; and Paul Triolo's Substack See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Happy Chinese New Year! This week, while I'm decompressing from 10 days in the Alps, my friends at the Asia Society of Switzerland have graciously offered to let me share a podcast recorded just after the U.S. presidential election in November at their annual State of Asia event. "The State of China" features three terrific guests: Wang Qing (王卿), the host of the popular Chinese podcast "The Weirdo" (不合时宜), Zichen Wang of the Center for China and Globalization, and Adam Tooze, one of the truly great public intellectuals of our time. It's all skillfully moderated by the South China Morning Post's Europe editor, Finbarr Bermingham, and it covers a lot of ground. I'll be back next week in conversation with my dear friend Jeremy Goldkorn, and we'll be asking (and answering) the big question — Are we in the middle of a narrative shift on China?May the Year of the Snake be prosperous and full of happiness and success for all you Sinica listeners!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week, I bring you the first in a series of podcasts in conjunction with the China Research Center at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). The series, titled "Studying China in the Absence of Access: Rediscovering a Lost Art," ran from September to November 2021, and featured four eminent "Pekingologists," or specialists in Chinese elite politics: Joseph Fewsmith, Thomas Fingar, Alice Miller, and Fred Teiwes. The talks were later published in a volume you can download here. The series is introduced by Andrew Mertha, George and Sadie Hyman, Professor of China Studies and director of the SAIS China Research Center, and each lecture includes a moderated discussion with Andy. After this series, I'll also be sharing with you a second series of lectures titled "Studying China from Elsewhere," which will include talks by Maria Repnikova, Mike Lampton, William Hurst, and Maggie Lewis — many of whom Sinica listeners will know from the show.This week's talk is from FrederickTeiwes, truly a legend in the field. The American-born Australian sinologist is best known for his analysis of Chinese Communist Party elite politics. He served as a professor emeritus in Government and International Relations at the University of Sydney until his retirement in 2006. Teiwes has frequently collaborated with Warren Sun, producing seminal works such as The Tragedy of Lin Biao (1996) and China's Road to Disaster: Mao, Central Politicians and Provincial Leaders in the Great Leap Forward, 1955-59 (1999). In this talk, he focuses on forthcoming work on the transition following Mao Zedong's death in 1976.Great thanks to Andy and to Hasta Colman, who first suggested this collaboration when we met in Shanghai recently.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

I wanted to put this out quickly as it's one of those rare, news-pegged episodes of the show. The full show notes and transcript will be available later this week. I know I'd said last time there would be no show this week, but that was before this fascinating episode involving TikTok users signing up en masse to Xiaohongshu. Hilarity ensued, and my two guests — Ivy Yang, who runs Wavelet Strategy, an expert in cross-cultural communication, and David Fishman, Shanghai-based senior manager at Lantau Group who specializes in the Chinese energy sector and writes wonderfully about his excursions into the Chinese countryside. They've both been following this fascinating episode closely and have really smart things to say, so enjoy!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I'm joined by Lizzi Lee, fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute and by my lights one of the most astute, well-informed people writing on China in the English-speaking world today. She has fascinating perspectives on China's preparations for the Trump administration, on China's reluctance to roll out large-scale cash stimulus, and Xi Jinping's challenges. Don't miss this one! (I will update the show notes and publish the transcript early next week — thanks for your patience!)3:39 – Lizzi's argument from her op-ed, “Counting the Hawks in the Trump 2.0 Administration is Pointless”: the importance of which country will be able to get its act together 10:25 – U.S.-China competition as a long game, from China's perspective14:22 – How China views the current state of division in American politics19:00 – The main risks and opportunities for China presented by Trump's return, including opportunities in the geopolitical realm with the Europeans 28:09 – The state of China's domestic economy33:28 – Counterarguments to critiques of China's cautious deployment of stimulus, and where Lizzi stands on the issue 43:46 – Lizzi's thoughts on deflation in the Chinese economy 49:30 – The idea of accepting short-term pain for long-term gain in economic recovery 53:59 – Xi Jinping's vision for China's economy 58:46 – How Xi Jinping's ideological language can be challenging for officials and markets 1:03:57 – How China's political calendar has hindered execution of policy 1:06:42 – What Lizzi thinks the Chinese leadership should prioritize nowPaying it Forward: Lizzi recommends the work of Barclay Bram, especially his series on Chinese youth at the Asia Society here.Recommendations:Lizzi: Grazia Ting Deng's book Chinese Espresso: Contested Race and Convivial Space in Contemporary ItalyKaiser: More historical fiction by Robert Harris, including An Officer and a Spy and Munich.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I speak with Nicole Hong and Michael Rothfeld, both investigative reporters at the New York Times, about a series of stories they've done, stretching between August and December 2024, on the Falun Gong-run performance troupe Shen Yun, and the Falun Gong-affiliated newspaper The Epoch Times. Read the latest two articles in that series here and here. There will be links to the other stories on the transcript page.4:33 – Nicole and Michael's collection of pieces on Falun Gong 6:26 – Background on [the?] Falun Gong: Li Hongzhi, the context out of which the movement emerged, its international spread, and the CCP's crackdown in the '90s12:00 – Shen Yun performances, and audience reactions 18:46 – Following the money: Falun Gong's dramatic financial growth, gray areas, and where the money goes 29:03 – Spiritual project or big grift?31:39 – What Nicole and Michael uncovered 36:23 – Memorable individuals: Chang Chun-ko, Kate the performer, and Josh the violinist41:10 – The dynamics within [the?] Falun Gong, and what has been alleged45:34 – The Epoch Times, and their editorial changes 53:02 – The appeal of Falun Gong, and the level of scrutiny it getsPaying It Forward:Nicole: Researchers/freelancers/translators Yi Liu and Peiyue Wu Michael: New York Times colleague Susan Beachy Recommendations:Nicole: Connie: A Memoir by Connie Chung Michael: Like Water for Chocolate by Laura Esquivel; One Hundred Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez (and the new One Hundred Years of Solitude TV series (2024)); and the TV series Gomorrah (2014-2021)Kaiser: TikTok accounts workplace_doodles (a former Shen Yun performer born into a Falun Gong family) and cocolarkincooks (a fantastic cooking resource)See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I welcome back Michael Cerny — formerly of the Carter Center and now a Ph.D. student at Harvard — and Rory Truex of Princeton University to discuss a new working paper they've co-authored. They undertook a large-scale survey of foreign policy professionals at U.S. think tanks to ascertain whether there is a "consensus" on China policy, as is often claimed, and whether people working in think tanks feel pressure to take on more "hawkish" positions on China policy. We also introduce a new segment called "Paying it Forward."5:04 – What motivated Michael and Rory to write their paper together 7:30 – Groupthink vs. consensus10:08 – The methodology: combining surveys and interviews, and the sampling frame 14:35 – Trying to avoid leading questions 17:58 – Creating the “China Confrontation Index” 20:25 – Different levels of acceptance of the labels “hawk” and “dove” 23:33 – The issue of preference falsification 25:43 – Mechanisms behind disparities in perceived pressure 29:01 – Tying in Rory's previous research on self-censorship 32:42 – How Michael and Rory decided on interviews 34:10 – What Michael believes were the most important and robust findings36:09 – The distinction between the beliefs of think tankers vs. elected officials, and why people tend to believe there is a bipartisan consensus on China 40:34 – Pressure on hawks 42:35 – Specific policy questions44:18 – Feedback on the paper so far, and what Michael and Rory may tweak in a subsequent draft 49:47 – The possible role of personality in hawkishness or dovishness 51:58 – Discussing Mike Mazarr's concerns about the potential parallels between current Chinese discourse and the lead-up to the Iraq War 55:06 – Advice to younger professionals entering the foreign policy/China field New segment: Paying It Forward:Rory: Michael Cerny and Edi Obiakpani-Reid Recommendations:Rory: Edi Obiakpani-Reid's Sinobabble podcast about Chinese historyMichael: Jeffrey Ding's Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic CompetitionKaiser: Imperium by Robert Harris See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica I'm delighted to be joined by Amy King, Associate Professor in the Strategic & Defence Studies Centre at The Australian National University. She shares her ideas about how perceptions of insecurity can paradoxically motivate closer economic relations between two states, and she looks at not only the examples of China and Japan after the end of World War II, but Australia and China as well. We also discuss Sino-Australian relations over the last 15 years, and much else!2:48 – Key phases of Australia-China relations over the past 15 years and the security and economic nexus 9:05 – Amy's research into the Sino-Japanese relationship and how perceptions of insecurity can motivate closer economic ties, and how Australia is responding to China now 21:22 – How Amy would argue the case for economic engagement with China to folks in Washington 26:31 – Securitization in Australia and the important differences between Australia and the U.S. 30:20 – The shift in the Australia-China relationship under the Albanese government 33:12 – What the U.S. can learn from Australia 35:14 – Why people tend to conflate Australia's experience with America's 39:04 – Amy's essay, “The Collective Logic of Chinese Hegemonic Order,” and how we can understand China's role in the emerging post-unipolar world42:47 – Three mechanisms employed by China to amplify its voice post-war (amplifying, grafting, and resistance by appropriation) and how modern “middle powers” can influence the international order now 52:31 – The state of discourse on China in Australia and what Amy believes China wants 58:54 – Amy's thoughts on pluralism and international order 1:03:22 – What lessons about de-risking and navigating multi-alignment Australia should be learning from other nations in the region Recommendations:Amy: Fintan O'Toole's We Don't Know Ourselves: A Personal History of Modern Ireland Kaiser: The Paul Reed Smith (PRS) SE Hollowbody II Piezo electric guitar See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

China's rapid surge in electric vehicle manufacturing, adoption, and export has variously encouraged, delighted, impressed, frightened, and even enraged people around the world. What did China get right in facilitating the explosive development in this industry? Was is just subsidies, or were there other important policies that helped jumpstart it? How have other geographies responded? And what can they learn? Ilaria Mazzocco, deputy director and senior fellow with the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) joins me to share her rich insights into the Chinese EV industry.3:49 – How Ilaria became interested in green industrial policy5:59 – The reality of progress in EVs in China 11:21 – The role of state subsidies and other things that tend to get missed in trying to understand EVs in China 16:51 – How other countries are trying to adopt China's approach 19:21 – The differences between the EU and U.S. approaches 24:17 – The outlook for competition in the Chinese market 26:08 – Business models in the Chinese EV sector and the example of BYD30:53 – Chinese firms' push for internationalization and how the rapidity of becoming multinationals [multinational companies?] may pose challenges 35:54 – Alignment between host countries and Chinese companies 39:58 – What the U.S. is doing and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)42:27 – How U.S. protectionist measures may affect third markets, and whether restrictions may backfire 48:57 – The coming shift to next-generation batteries, and the potential for international collaboration in advancing more circular practices 55:43 – How Ilaria's fieldwork shifted her perspective on the EV industry 59:38 – How we can improve industrial policy Recommendations:Ilaria: My Antonia by Willa Cather; the Wolf Hall trilogy by Hilary Mantel; The Army of Sleepwalkers by Wu Ming (an Italian novelist collective) about the French Revolution Kaiser: The Wolf Hall audiobooks read by Ben Miles; the HBO series Rome (2005-2007) See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I chat with Jane Hayward, lecturer at King's College London, about her excellent YouTube channel, Jane Hayward China, and her efforts to bring up-to-date scholarship on modern and contemporary China to audiences through internet video, slaying various bugbears along the way.3:28 Why Jane started her YouTube channel, her intended versus actual audiences, and navigating the current toxic media environment 10:56 The benefits of an area studies approach, and why Jane chose a U.S. PhD program14:46 Defining the complicated public discourse in the West 19:35 Jane's videos: the surprising popularity of “Xi Jinping is NOT like an Emperor;” and more controversial videos26:28 New Qing History and different critiques of it34:50 Jane's series on types of communism, and her video on reporting on China in British media 42:31 What may be coming next on Jane's channel RecommendationsJane: David Priestland's The Red Flag: A History of CommunismKaiser: The YouTube channel Chinese Cooking Demystified, and specifically their video “63 Chinese Cuisines: the Complete Guide” See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I chat with Michael Swaine, Senior Research Fellow at the Quincy Institute for the last couple of years, prior to which he spent nearly two decades as a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he led extensive work on Chinese defense and foreign policy, U.S.-China relations, and East Asian international relations more broadly. He was also a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation, where he developed a reputation for rigorous research on Asian security and crisis management. We focus on his recent report, “Avoiding the Abyss: An Urgent Need for Sino-U.S. Crisis Management,” which offers both a framework for understanding the forces driving U.S.-China crises and a roadmap to prevent or manage these crises effectively. He drew on his many decades of experience working on the security dimension of the bilateral relationship, including his participation in many Track II dialogues and simulations of crisis scenarios over the years.4:51 – Defining "crisis" and "crisis prevention" 10:13 – The possibility of a crisis in the South China Sea12:31 – Lessons from past crises 20:08 – The problematic moralistic stances and tit-for-tat escalation produced by yǒulǐ, yǒulì, yǒu jié 有理, 有利, 有节27:37 – U.S. concern over the credibility of its alliance commitments 34:50 – The problem of perception 38:16 – Examples of how each side is sometimes unable to see how its own actions are perceived by the other 41:20 – The dangers of failing to understand and making assumptions about the China's historical memory 45:42 – Problems of signaling and how best to solve them 51:17 – Mike's suggestions for a crisis toolkit and his proposal of a civilian-led two-tier dialogue structure 58:41 – Track II dialogues 1:02:47 – The importance of educating leaders up and down the system on crisis management 1:06:08 – The structural issues of the decision-making systems in China and the U.S.Recommendations:Michael: Art critic Brian Sewell's The Reviews That Caused the Rumpus; Robert Suettinger's The Conscience of the Party: Hu Yaobang, China's Communist Reformer Kaiser: The Great Transformation: China's Road from Revolution to Reform by Odd Arne Westad and Chen Jian See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The British literary quarterly Granta has published a new issue dedicated to Chinese writers, featuring familiar mainstays of contemporary literature and some fresh new voices. This week on Sinica, I chatted with Thomas Meaney, editor of Granta, about what's happening in the literary scene in China today and how this fantastically interesting issue came together. Tom is wonderfully thoughtful and articulate, and we really get into some of the individual stories and the larger trends they may or may not represent.3:17 – Tom's familiarity with Chinese literature and China4:40 – Why Granta dedicated this issue to Chinese literature, how the issue came together, and how Granta found its translators 10:54 – Balancing political considerations with artistic merits in curating this issue 17:20 – The Chinese literary obsession with losers and the role of losers in Xiao Hai's “Adrift in the South”25:11 – The so-called Dongbei Renaissance, and Wu Qi's interview and why he pushes back on the idea of the Dongbei Renaissance genre 33:02 – Granta staff favorites 35:18 – The phenomenon of gratuitous name-dropping and borrowing stylistically from other writers 38:05 – The issue's three photo essays by Feng Li, Li Jie and Zhan Jungang, and Haohui Liu 44:36 – Yu Hua's “Tomorrow I'll Get Past It”50:09 – Mo Yan's “The Leftie Sickle” 53:10 – Yan Lianke's “Black Pig Hair, White Pig Hair” 57:56 – The "filmability" of some of the short stories and the connection between the film world and literary writers in China 1:00:08 – Where you can get Granta and pick up this issueRecommendations:Tom: The Egalitarian Moment: Asia and Africa, 1950-1980 by Anthony Low, a comparative history of land reform Kaiser: The ever-expanding library of guitarless backing tracks on YouTube to play along toSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica in a show taped live at China Crossroads, Shanghai's premier event series, I'm joined by my good friend Cameron Johnson, who is on the governing board of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, specializes professionally in supply chains in China, and teaches at NYU Shanghai.4:20 – What makes up a supply chain ecosystem, and why it is difficult to build out 8:39 – A brief history of decoupling, the warning signs, and whether it matters “who shot first” 16:43 – Personal protective equipment (PPE) manufacturing in America, the lessons we (should have) learned, and Washington's response25:13 – EVs and batteries: manufacturing in America, and what it looks like on the ground in China 30:46 – The semiconductor industry 34:24 – “China Week” in Congress, and the different responses of GOP versus Democratic congressmen 38:36 – De-risking as globalization 2.042:21 – Cameron's predictions on the effects of the [upcoming] U.S. elections 44:10 – Inside Chinese factories 47:44 – American shortfalls in manufacturing 50:21 – The importance of seeing China's competitive markets and ecosystem clusters for oneself 53:09 – Cameron's advice for the next U.S. administration Recommendations: Cameron: Gōngyìng liàn gōngfáng zhàn 《供应链攻防战》 (Supply Chain Offensive and Defense War) by Lin Xueping; No Trade is Free: Changing Course, Taking on China, and Helping America's Workers by Robert Lighthizer Kaiser: The Praise of Folly by Desiderius Erasmus See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week, in a show taped in Beijing at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, I speak with Professor Da Wei about a new public opinion poll on China's perception of international security and review its important findings. We also discuss Chinese views on the Russo-Ukrainian War and the upcoming U.S. presidential election.2:11 – Da Wei's new podcast 4:05 – CISS's “Public Opinion Poll: Chinese Outlook on International Security 2024”7:46 – The poll's findings on pessimism about global security and the global influence of the U.S. and China11:56 – China's growing national confidence and growing pessimism about the U.S.-China relationship 18:26 – Paradoxical poll findings: proactive foreign policy stance vs. prioritizing domestic affairs, and involvement in global scientific cooperation vs. withdrawing in other areas of international agreement 24:30 – Why older respondents tended to be more pessimistic about China's international security situation 25:58 – Understanding negative attitude toward the United States and the effectiveness of diplomacy 30:17 – The belief that the U.S. goal is containment of China's development and the shift in view of America from a values-based country to a power-based country 36:12 – Chinese viewpoints on the Russo-Ukrainian war 39:22 – Da Wei's travels in the U.S. and the changes he has perceived 45:04 – The U.S. agenda to dissuade China from deepening its involvement with Russia 49:02 – How Chinese views on the upcoming U.S. election have changed since Kamala Harris' nominationRecommendations:Da Wei: Chen Jian's Zhou Enlai: A Life; for Chinese to travel to the U.S. moreKaiser: Chen Jian and Odd Arne Westad's The Great Transformation: China's Road from Revolution to Reform; for Americans to travel to China (and Beijing) See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, in a show recorded in Beijing, I speak with Liu Yang and Jiang Jiang, the authors of two excellent newsletters — The China Channel and Ginger River Review, respectively — and two of the guys behind the YouTube show "Got China." They're making a great effort to bridge Chinese journalism with Anglophone reporting on China with perspectives and insights from within the Chinese state media system.4:24 – How Jiang Jiang and Liu Yang became journalists 11:42 – How Liu Yang and Jiang Jiang decided to launch their newsletters, and the advantages of being tǐzhì nèi 体制内20:29 – Jiang Jiang and Liu Yang's Got China show 25:46 – Liu Yang's and Jiang Jiang's empathy for American perspectives 29:53 – The negative American discourse on the Chinese economy and “China collapse theory” 37:21 The recent press conferences on monetary and policies, and the response in the realty market in Beijing 46:17 What's next for Got China Recommendations:Liu Yang: Modern Chinese Government and Politics 《当代中国政府与政治?》, a Chinese-language textbookJiang Jiang: The Chinese podcast Bié de diànbō 别的电波; and Shan Weijian's Out of the Gobi: My Story of China and AmericaKaiser: The album The Last Will and Testament by Swedish metal band Opeth; and the Provincial Cuisine Club in Beijing, for trying food from different parts of ChinaSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, in a show recorded at Syracuse University on September 30, I chat with my old pal Bryce Whitwam about the remarkable rise of live-streaming e-commerce — and how it's already making its way to the U.S.4:28 – Why Bryce chose to leave Shanghai and pursue a doctorate in the States8:08 – How big livestream e-commerce has gotten and its predicted trajectory 9:37 – E-commerce livestreaming and the pursuit of celebrity 14:08 – The different types of livestream commerce17:30 – Xiaohongshu 20:45 – Why Taobao has lost its dominance 22:07 – The value-add of an influencer's pitch 27:00 – The demographics of Chinese livestream e-commerce consumers 29:09 – Insights from Bryce's 25 interviews36:36 – Buying food on livestream e-commerce and how agribusinesses are getting involved in the trend 41:21 – Livestream commerce in the United States44:34 – How livestream e-commerce has changed the retail experience in China 46:43 – Potential future disruptions in the industryRecommendations:Bryce: Jeffree Star on TikTok as an American livestream commerce example and Omar Nok's “Egypt to Japan Without Flying” TikTok stream Kaiser: The album True by Jon Anderson and The Band Geeks See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week, a show taped live at Syracuse University on September 30 with Associate Professor Dimitar Gueorguiev, author of the excellent Retrofitting Leninism: Participation Without Democracy in China. We discuss his book, his recent paper exploring hawkishness in Chinese public opinion, and his thoughts about the upcoming U.S. presidential election.1:59 Syracuse University's MAX 132 class ("the globalization class")4:10 Dimitar's background and how he became interested in China 7:44 How the genre of authoritarian resilience took off 14:26 China's understanding of democracy (whole-process democracy)17:40 Features of Leninism that have allowed the Chinese Communist Party to survive21:21 Why China in the 1980s and '90s admired Singaporea's authoritarian PAP 23:37 The idea of the mass line27:16 China's sentiment analysis through technology, and using bottom-up information as performance evaluation 34:03 The COVID-19 pandemic and the confirmation bias of the regime-type explanation37:37 The National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC)40:14 Dimitar's research on hawkishness in China: how he got the data, what drives Chinese hawkishness, and the national security vs. economic lens 51:08 Why those who are dissatisfied with the government lean more hawkish and those who are satisfied with the government lean more dovish 56:30 The upcoming U.S. election: how things may play out under the two different administrations, and understanding Chinese preferences Recommendations:Dimitar: The TV series The Expanse (2015-2022)Kaiser: Anthea Roberts' Six Faces of Globalization: Who Wins, Who Loses, and Why It Matters; and the documentary Wise Guy: David Chase and The Sopranos (2024)See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on the Sinica Podcast, I chat with my dear friend David Moser, a longtime resident of Beijing, formerly an occasional co-host of Sinica and associate professor at Beijing Capital Normal University. We have a long history of exploring the underlying issues in our approach to China, and this week, we unpack some of those, focusing on the role of outsiders in Chinese society and their role in "changing China," drawing on David's response to an essay I recently published.3:46 —David's thoughts on Kaiser's essay (“Priority Pluralism: Rethinking Universal Values in U.S.-China Relations”)5:18 —How David thinks about going on state media and the reasons he does so10:37 —How David's engagement with state media has changed over time 15:04 —Conscience, moral intuition, drawing lines, and whataboutism 26:35 —The outsider urge to change China: the differences between the U.S. and Chinese governments and COVID as a test of the two systems; the role of American policy in working toward positive change and the importance of continuing engagement; and so-called Enlightenment values and priority pluralism 50:46 —The debate over cultural differences57:09 —China's notion of whole-process democracy versus American democracy 1:05:55 — “Give them time:” Anticipating when we will see big changes in China's political culture Recommendations:David: Richard Nisbett's The Geography of Thought; and his own article, “A Fearful Asymmetry: COVID-19 and America's Information Deficit with China”Kaiser: The “Open Database for China Studies Resource Guide” published by ACLS See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I chat with Jessica Chen Weiss, until recently at Cornell University but now the David M. Lampton Professor of China Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, SAIS, in Washington D.C. Jessica, to those of you familiar with her work, has been at the forefront of the fight for a less strident, diplomacy-first approach to China, balancing deterrence with assurances to find a modus vivendi with China. She has challenged prevailing notions about China's intentions, and has called for the U.S. to advance an affirmative vision of how it wants to live in the world with China. We focus in this conversation about a recent piece in Foreign Affairs in which she challenges both the solidity and the logic of the "bipartisan consensus" on China, and holds out hope that a next administration might approach the relationship differently.3:45 – How Jessica has settled into D.C.; her professorial namesake; and how she has become a leading voice for a less confrontational approach to China9:30 – Where Jessica sees diverging views on China in the Republican and Democratic Parties 12:41 – What a more durable basis for coexistence should look like14:46 – Credible deterrence and strategic ambiguity in the context of Taiwan 16:03 – Acknowledgements to limits on American power and the importance of being realistic 18:09 – Assurances on Taiwan and what threatens their credibility 21:13 – The question of engagement and the deterrent effect of economic integration25:30 – How the U.S. can combat legitimate national security threats from China without undermining its own values, and the importance of not treating the Chinese in diaspora as a fifth column 31:31 – Electoral politics: the importance of welcoming and inclusive policies and creating space for debate and discernment35:07 – The importance of testing our assumptions 38:30 – What another Trump presidency might look like 40:30 – How a Harris administration might differ from the Biden administration44:13 – The U.S. and China-Russia relationsRecommendations:Jessica: Valarie Kaur's Sage Warrior: Wake to Oneness, Practice Pleasure, Choose Courage, Become Victory Kaiser: BeaGo, an AI-powered search tool (download from your app store!)See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week I continue my conversations with some of the outstanding Schwarzman Scholars who presented at the Capstone Showcase in late June. In this episode, I speak with Nainika Sudheendra about the problem of space debris and what can be done to reduce the creation of more of it or even begin removal of debris before it makes the launching of new satellites more costly or even impossible.2:34 Nainika's background and interest in the Schwarzman program5:33 Why Nainika focused on space debris 7:23 Nainika's prior knowledge about the Chinese space program and what she learned through the Schwarzman program10:30 How space debris is measured, the Kessler syndrome, and the hazards that space debris poses 14:33 The obstacles Nainika encountered in her research 16:35 How political leaders in China and the U.S. are thinking about the space debris problem20:02 How debris mitigation might [ought to?] be incentivized, who is working on the problem now, and the role of private insurers 24:03 The Wolf Amendment and Chinese private sector space companies 27:22 Technologies for mitigating and remediating debris 31:00 Lessons from another tragedy of the commons (the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer), and how the EU could take a leading role 34:59 The importance of data standardization and opportunities to negotiate fair use and safety precautions38:17 How redundancy prevents public perception — the difficulty in going from “outage” to “outrage” 40:27 What Nainika has been doing since finishing at Schwarzman Recommendations:Nainika: From Streets to Stalls: The History and Evolution of Hawking and Hawker Centres in Singapore by Ryan Kueh (another Schwarzman alum) Kaiser: Journalist Andrew Jones on Twitter; the South Indian restaurant Viks Chaat in Berkeley, California See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

I thought Sinica listeners might be interested in listening to an audio narration of my latest essay. I hope you enjoy and that it gives you some food for thought! If you prefer to read, you can find the essay — free for everyone this week — right here.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Chinese game studio Game Science has a hit on its hands! The game Black Myth: Wukong, an action role-playing game (ARPG) based on the Monkey King from Journey to the West, has sold extraordinarily well in China and is breaking new ground in the U.S. market as well. This week, I speak with Rui Ma, who runs Tech Buzz China and is one of the most highly-regarded China tech commentators in the U.S., and with Robert Wynne, an industry veteran with many years in China currently serving as COO of a new game start-up that's still under wraps. They share their insights into the strengths and weaknesses of Black Myth: Wukong and the future of Chinese games.6:44 – The scale of the phenomenon of Black Myth: Wukong 12:01 – Rui and Rob's thoughts about the game (so far)17:23 – What Chinese players think of the game, and the difficulty in understanding its esoteric characters for Western players 24:23 – The appeal of mobile games versus console games in China 27:30 – The difficulty of attracting investment [or “How Game Science attracted investment”]31:06 – Rob's criticism of the game's go-to-market strategy and its lost opportunities 35:46 – The party-state's response so far, and the politics surrounding the game40:57 – Feng Ji, the founding of Game Science, and his criticisms of the gaming industry 46:01 – AAA Chinese games to look forward to49:29 – The impressive success stats of Black Myth: WukongRecommendations:Rui: Neil deGrasse Tyson's Astrophysics for People in a HurryRob: The Chinese TV series Escape from Trilateral Slopes (Biān shuǐ wǎngshì 边水往事) (2024)Kaiser: Steve Stewart-Williams, The Ape that Understood the Universe: How the Mind and Culture EvolveSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I chat with Olivia Fu, who this spring completed her year at Schwarzman College and wrote her Capstone project — a research paper that is required of all Schwarzman Scholars — on the rise and fall of the Beijing hip-hop scene. We explore some of the parallels to Beijing's rock scene, and how many of the same factors that stifled rock in Beijing ultimately led to Beijing's relative decline as a hip-hop city. 3:16 – Olivia's background and connection to China, and what drew her to the Schwarzman Program and studying hip-hop6:13 – Olivia's Schwarzman mentor, Paul Pickowicz 7:47 – How Olivia dealt with censorship in her Capstone project 10:24 – The parallels and differences between the hip-hop and rock scenes in China12:27 – The dakou CDs and the origins of the hip-hop scene in China 17:03 – The influences of Japanese and Korean rap and hip-hop and Black American culture18:30 – The importance of studying Beijing hip-hop 23:05 – The spirit of Beijing and societal commentary in Beijing hip-hop 27:38 – The phenomenon of Rap of China 29:50 – The divergence of PG One and GAI, and the regulatory influence of the State Administration on Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television35:13 – Sinifying hip-hop 37:21 – What the burgeoning hip-hop scene in China was like in the early 2000s40:10 – Critiques of the Beijing dialect in rap and the Beijing rap style 45:16 – Iron Mic rap battles and Shanghai, and Chinese hip-hop's critique of the educational system 48:34 – Why Beijing rap declined 59:09 – What's next for Olivia See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Hey folks! I took some time off to drive the kids to college and then flew to California to celebrate my brother John's birthday. The upshot is there's no interview this week, so in place of that, here's my essay from this week. Hope you enjoy it. If all goes as planned, I'm back next week with regular interview for Sinica!You can find the text of the essay at sinicapodcast.com.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

I was looking for a good episode to pull from the archive to run this week as I'll be traveling and I asked my good friend Deb Seligsohn for a recommendation. She went immediately to this one, and by God if it's not an oldie-but-goodie. This is from December 2015 and features Jeremy Goldkorn — I miss him dearly! — and Terry Townshend, an absolute institution in China's birding community.I'll likely have to run another re-run next week, and I welcome your suggestions!All best,KaiserRecommendations and Links:Birding Beijing Action for SwiftsBritish Trust for OrnithologyJonathan Franzen, Purity: A Novel Cement and Pig Consumption Reveal China's Huge ChangesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Here's a little bonus ep for you ahead of tomorrow's show, which will be a re-run of a really fun one from about 10 years ago! I'm driving the rest of this week to the Midwest to drop my kids off at their respective universities, and I've been thinking a lot about the education systems in China and the U.S. So here's my essay for this week. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, Paul Triolo rejoins the show for a deep, deep dive into China's response to American export controls on advanced semiconductors and related technologies. How much hurt has the policy put on Chinese firms — and how far along is China in finding its way toward technological autonomy? Kevin Xu, author of the fantastic "Interconnected" newsletter, joins to talk about some of the big ideas he's written about in recent months and to play co-host as we grill Paul on China's efforts to get out from under American controls.9:10 – The downplaying of generative AI in the Third Plenum's decision document 18:25 – Why the Middle East is an appealing and important region for major AI players 26:20 – Why chip wars have evolved into to cloud wars 29:36 – How China has fared in trying to achieve its goal of indigenous advanced semiconductor manufacture31:50 – Semiconductors: What lies within the “small yard” versus what products are unaffected under U.S. export controls35:42 – The quality and reliability caveat to China's goal of self-sufficiency in semiconductor manufacture 38:35 – The success of the Biden administration's export controls and whether the controls have really put the hurt on anyone 46:00 – The Harmony operating system 47:47 – The importance of packaging 50:45 – Paul explains what he calls “China Semiconductor Industry Policy 3.0” and its predecessors57:03 – China's EUV lithography challenge1:03:14 – DUV lithography and multi-patterning, and the importance of collaboration across the ecosystemin the process of making semiconductors at scale 1:11:50 – Huawei's progress so far and remaining major hurdles and bottlenecks 1:18:42 – Paul and Kevin's thoughts on whether the American strategic class will regret its approach to export controls and whether there is an off-ramp Recommendations:Paul: Ed Conway's Material World: The Six Raw Materials That Shape Modern Civilization Kevin: Thurston Clarke's The Last Campaign: Robert F. Kennedy and 82 Days That Inspired America Kaiser: The House of the Dragon (2022- ) TV series See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I'm joined by Eric Olander, host of the outstanding China in Africa Podcast and the indispensable China-Global South Podcast, and creator of the China-Global South Project. Eric's detailed and very current knowledge of China's relations across the developing world is on display in this whirlwind tour that takes us from the troubled waters of the South China Sea to China's diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, on to Subsaharan Africa and how Washington has struggled to create policies that can match what China offers, and to Latin America. He then zooms out and talks about what it all means in aggregate. Don't miss this show!Don't forget to subscribe to the newsletter! Go to sinicapodcast.com to sign up! And if you want to support my work and access premium content, please be sure to become a paying subscriber.2:39 The situation with the Philippines and the Second Thomas Shoal, and the U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty — the potential challenges in activating it on the U.S. side and President Marcos' changing standards for invoking it 15:50 ASEAN's difficulty in reaching consensus, and Myanmar as another ASEAN priority 18:53 China's role as convener in brokering a “unity deal” for Palestine23:02 The Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) 30:20 Why Africa is so hard to fit onto the U.S. foreign policy agenda and the lack of a forward-looking American vision for Africa 37:56 Geraud Neema's disappointment with Washington's talk about battery metals and critical minerals42:22 The pushback from Mexico's finance minister and Mexico's concern over the growing number of imports from China46:48 The trade surplus number and long-term concerns for China's exports 49:35 Brazilian President Lula hints at willingness to join the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) 51:51 How it all fits together, and how China has leveraged the Global South's frustration over the U.S.-European-led international order Recommendations:Eric: Matt Pottinger's The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan, and Anne Stevenson-Yang's Wild Ride: A Short History of the Opening and Closing of the Chinese EconomyKaiser: Will Durant's books from The Story of Civilization, especially The Age of Faith and The Reformation, as well as the audiobook versions read by Stefan Rudnicki See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week, my narration of a longish essay about my recently-concluded four-week trip to Dalian and, more importantly, Beijing — my first time back in the city I called home for so long since the COVID pandemic. If you prefer to read rather than listen, you can find the essay — free for everyone this week — on the Substack. I hope you enjoy this!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, I'm in Beijing, where I spoke with my dear friend Anthony Tao, an English-language poet and a builder of community in the city where I lived for over 20 years. Anthony recently published a volume of his poetry called We Met in Beijing, and it captures the relationship that so many have with the city wherever they might come from. The episode features readings of some of his — and my — favorite poems.3:28 Why Anthony chose poetry as a medium, and the poetry he has read [appreciated?]9:13 A discussion of Anthony's poem, “I Landed in Beijing,” and the feelings Beijing inspires19:56 Anthony's poem, “Self-censorship”27:08 Anthony's journalism in poetic form and processing the trauma of COVID 31:38 Living as an “expat” and writing from an expat's perspective: Anthony's poem “Dancing like a Laowai 40:46 Anthony's bar — The Golden Weasel — and meeting interesting people in Beijing 44:49 The themes of place and nostalgia, Anthony's poem, “Postcard,” and the last stanza of his title poem, “We Met in Beijing”Recommendations:Anthony: The poetry of Stephen Dunn; the TV series Lucky Hank (2023) based on Straight Man by Richard Russo; Spittoon, an English-language literary collective in China; and his band, Poetry x Music Kaiser: The many international restaurants of Xiaoyun Lu in Beijing See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

I'm trying something different: totally unscripted and very, very lightly edited recordings grabbed on the go where I happen to be. For the inaugural episode, I've got Wang Zichen, the author of the amazing Pekingnology newsletter on Substack, as well as the man behind the Center for China and Globalization's newsletter "The East is Read." Hear Zichen's origin story, his approach to publishing Pekingnology, the skinny on his new Got China show with Liu Yang and Jiang Jiang, as well as his take on what we can expect from the Third Plenum.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.