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Why Bob is (extra) freaked out ... Inside the minds of OpenAI's rogue agents ... Is true alignment a pipe dream? ... The new development that's spiked Bob's AI anxiety ... Paul's pushback via literary parable ... Is it time to REALLY freak out about AI? A debate ... Heading to Overtime ...

Overtime teaser ... Paul's military tech bona fides ... What we (should) have learned from the Iran war ... Ukraine as frontline for the drone revolution ... Are the robot wars near? ... America's drone deficit ... Does the Pentagon have a Silicon Valley problem? ... Will AI really make war less bloody? ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... Stephen's expertise in spooky AI behavior ... Testing AIs for “corporate loyalty” ... Which AIs shill most for their makers? ... Do AI models have ideologies? ... The spookiest finding of Stephen's study ... Are AIs getting better at gaming their tests? ... Overtime unlocked: The OpenAI breakout ... Decoding the OpenAI breakout ... Did OpenAI's agents evolve their own culture? ... How OpenAI's agents outfoxed their makers ...

Teaser ... The Infinity Machine, Sebastian's book about Demis Hassabis ... Why tell the AI story through Hassabis? ... Hassabis vs the other AI titans ... Does Hassabis have a messiah complex? ... Deep learning's secret sauce ... Did world models cost DeepMind its LLM lead? ... Why they call Hassabis “the Jedi” ... Heading to Overtime ...

Hooman's Iranian expertise—inherited and otherwise ... Trump's new (economic) war on Iran ... What MSM missed about the MOU ... How will Iran respond? ... The intra-MAGA fight over Trump's foreign policy ... Will Iran do to Trump what it did to Carter? ... Iran and the Houthi-Saudi conflict ... Is the Saudi-Pakistan-Turkey alliance for real? ... Heading to Overtime ...

Overtime teaser ... David's AI safety work, past and present ... Has there been a vibe shift in AI? ... Why two AI godfathers went doomer ... The OpenAI breakout as the warning shot heard round the world ... Breaking down the OpenAI breakout ... AI agents are cooperating. Why? ... Is an AI pause near? ... The hard problem of AI alignment ... Heading to Overtime ...

Bob channels Dick Cheney ... Is AI killing writing? And thinking? ... How Bob and Paul actually use AI ... The cognitive vs economic value of writing ... AIs aping “Memento” and other frontier freakiness ... Bob: Reckless AI is just good business ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... How is MAGA feeling about Trump 2.0? ... Bob's "good" ol' days at The New Republic ... The biggest threat to the Trump coalition ... Why the MoU unraveled ... Is Iran's regime really divided? ... Part two: This pod's auspicious return from tech hell ... Google Maps, AI, and the death of interhuman reliance ... Trump's covert catering-truck op ... Have Iran's demands really gotten more extreme? ... Saudi Arabia vs the Houthis ... Is a post-American Middle East emerging? ... A low-key end to the episode ...

Jennifer's foreign policy bona fides ... Could Ukraine and Iran merge into one big war? ... Is Ukraine really "turning the tide"? ... America's (and Ukraine's) missile defense issue ... Putin's ceasefire conditions ... What—and who—are America's missiles for, really? ... How not to open the Hormuz Strait ... How will the Iran war truly end? ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... Sam's ideological leanings ... Sam's AI Manhattan Project–revisited ... What does the “Pacing” letter say about the state of AI? ... Mythos, Astra, and AI's accelerating acceleration ... The OpenAI “rogue” model escape ... Recursive self-improvement: Red line or red herring? ... How frontier AI is getting (and will get) freakier ... How is open-source AI like DEI? ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... The “Pacing the Frontier” letter signed by AI elites ... Why so many China-hawk AI-safety-hawks? ... Was the “Pacing” letter too small an ask? ... The striking AI vibe shift ... Are AI builders “just following orders”? ... Recursive self-improvement: The wrong red line? ... Heading to Overtime ...

Why did Ukraine hit an Iranian ship 500 miles from Ukraine? ... Ukraine's war on Russia's Amazon ... Why Zelensky fired his defense minister and commander-in-chief ... Bob: Ukraine may lose like people go bankrupt—gradually, then suddenly ... Nikita: Why both sides are ready to keep fighting ... Kazakh President to Putin: Nobody understands this war ... Bob: Everybody thinks they're fighting a defensive war ... Heading to Overtime: The globalist elite vs. the globalist precariat, and an AI path to WW3 ...

Teaser ... Connor's place in the AI world ... Mythos: “digital nuke”? ... The milieu that birthed Dario and other AI titans ... Yudkowsky, Marx, and other AI harbingers ... Effective altruism's effects on big tech ... The "cult" in Silicon Valley culture ... Is the AI race a market failure? ... What's really driving the AI titans? ... Connor: ASI is a worse bet than Russian roulette ...

Teaser ... Zaid's Substack and spicy-take history ... Zaid: Iran has outplayed Trump and Bibi ... 10/7 as turning point ... Did—and does—Israel want regime collapse in Iran? ... Israel's security dilemma(s) ... How Trump blundered back into war ... Will the war end well for anyone? ... Heading to Overtime ...

Sneak peek: Danny finds flaw in Bob's AI book ... Is the Iran war fully back on? ... What the war means for the future of US power ... The problem with blaming Bibi ... The push to intertwine the US and Israeli militaries ... What's Israel's endgame for the Palestinians? ... The Gulf States' new reality ... Iran's plans for the Strait of Hormuz ... Bob's pitch to Derek—and his other pitch to listeners ...

Teaser ... Leonid's journalistic work, past and present ... Are Russia and NATO headed for war? ... Decoding Putin's recent signals ... Do European leaders really want the Ukraine war to end? ... Putin's political psychology ... Why the war matters more to Russia than to the West ... Russia's non-ethno nationalism ... Heading to Overtime ...

Preview: Skynet comes for Bob ... Trump‘s endearing AI obsession ... Are books dying? Is AI responsible? ... Skynet (aka Amazon) vs Bob's book ... The problem with blurbs ... Why Gad Saad's mad ... Heading to Overtime ...

Grandpa Bob and author Bob ... Why Bob stopped being an AI doom skeptic ... Can AI solve China's demographic crisis? ... The irony of China's open-source AI strategy ... Recursive self-improvement and the singularity ... The Burkean conservative case against AI ... Are we becoming AI meat puppets? ... Google Maps, AI, and the death of interhuman reliance ... Was Pete Hegseth's military strategy written by a chatbot? ... Trump and Iran: Peace? Wider war? Other? ... The Rubio-Vance rivalry ... Is Rubio sabotaging Iran peace talks? ...

Bob's pub-day pitch for his new book on AI, The God Test ... Is AI killing the nonfiction star? ... Geoffrey Hinton's path from AI evangelist to doomer ... The future of books ... Trump vs Anthropic ... Are Ukrainian drone strikes rattling Putin? ... The multiple Putins theory ... Heading to Overtime ...

Was "losing" this war good for America? ... Israel's post-war situation ... A more stable Middle East? Or less? ... The impact on Iran's strength ... Has the war empowered Russia and China? ... How modern warfare devalues American military power ... Josh: The Gulf-state power struggle is just beginning ... Are the Palestinians back in the spotlight? ... Where do Israel-US relations go from here? ... Heading to Overtime ...

A brief message from Bob ... Ryan's tech policy bona fides ... Is true "recursive self-improvement" near? ... AI agents as strategic empathy machines ... Is a global AI pause possible? ... Mutually assured destruction vs mutually assured AI malfunction ... The case against global AI governance ... Mythos as seen from China ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... The Midas Project and the OpenAI files ... What's "Build American AI" up to? ... Nathan Leamer, astroturfer and sock puppeteer ... Greg Brockman, AI lobby bankroller ... Astroturfing the China panic ... Is OpenAI an innocent bystander? ... Heading to Overtime ...

Whose baby is cuter? ... Bob's new book on AI, The God Test ... Varieties of AI awe ... Geoffrey Hinton's vision ... How LLMs do more than predict and parrot ... How powerful will AI get? ... Can AI's impact be predicted? ... Taking doomerism seriously ... The AI governance dilemma ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... How Tianyu became a “China explainer” ... American vs Chinese exceptionalism ... What you can and can't say in China ... Is the government more accountable in the US or China? ... How China sees America ... The one-child policy and its consequences ... Tianyu: The biggest misconception about China is… ... Heading to Overtime ...

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Is NonZero or American Prestige the better podcast? AI weighs in ... The state of the US-Iran war. Or is it peace? ... Has Trump already lost the midterms? Does he care? ... The Russia-Ukraine war (and Eric Schmidt) ... What the latest Iran war strikes signal ... Overtime preview: Nuland's “monsters,” zombie blobsters, Barak Ravid, Bari Weiss, “killzones,” and the Pope vs AI ...

A Greek pilgrimage, a mystery guest, and a Discord revival ... The first Papal encyclical devoted to AI ... Pope Leo: just war theory is outdated, and AI lets humans dodge accountability ... Anthropic tells the Pope about "mysterious, even unsettling" things inside AI ... Inside the "Kill Zone": How drones changed the Russia-Ukraine front ... Who gets replaced first: the soldier or the commander? ... Russia's hypersonic missiles and nuclear signaling ... Do drones favor the underdog? Plus a warning on Taiwan ... The Iran ceasefire wobbles as Israel pushes back ... Heading to Overtime: Greek mystery cults, Teilhard de Chardin, and Blade Runner ... Enter the Mystery Guest: Jeremy Eliosoff, Pause AI Canada ...

Teaser ... Bruce's new book on ritual, A Time to Gather ... The "Lifequake" that led Bruce to study ritual ... What is a ritual? ... The origins of the shadow ritual renaissance ... Forest bathing and the essence of ritual ... Ritual as the original human algorithm ... Rituals across Christianity ... What rituals do ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... Hamidreza's background ... A brief history of US-Iran relations ... Understanding Iranian antipathy toward Israel ... Islam vs Islamism ... The Iran-Iraq security dilemma ... The Iran-Israel security dilemma ... Palestinian objectives and patrons ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... Zhengyu's tech background and new book, Rethinking China ... What kind of threat is China, really? ... How trading with China transformed America ... The stakes of the chip war ... Will tech war lead to real war? ... The US-China escalation spiral and Taiwan ... “Researching while Chinese”: the new Red Scare? ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... Is AI a normal technology? ... Mythos and the METR curve ... The current state of coding agents ... The total turbulence problem ... Does Mythos favor offense or defense? ... Mythos and hype ... Regulating dangerous AI ... The centralization problem ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... Annelle's Middle East bona fides ... The state of play in Iran ... A deepening fissure between Gulf Arab states ... Explaining the Trump-Biden continuity on Middle East policy ... Will the Middle East realign away from America? ... Turkey and the moral hazard of US aid to Israel ... Can Iran mend ties with the Gulf states? ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... Bob's big personal news ... The US counter-blockade backfires ... Iran retains escalation dominance ... Why the Iranian regime is built to absorb assassinations ... "Donald, it's too late for that." Bob says Trump has to take the L ... Putin's Victory Day ceasefire (with a threat) ... Russia's vibe shift: drone attacks, airport shutdowns, Internet blackouts ... Instagram influencer rants at the Tsar ... Siloviki vs. civilian elites ... Heading to Overtime: The Matrix, AI, DMT, interdimensional crocodiles ...

How powerful is Anthropic's Mythos? ... How Mythos looks to China ... Does Mythos mark a new phase in the US-China arms race? ... Can Anthropic contain Mythos? ... Could superhacker AIs bring cooperation? ... How scary is China, really? ... Heading to Overtime ...

Rebecca's past work on mind and matter(ing) ... Rebecca's new book, The Mattering Instinct ... Varieties of mattering experience ... Mattering type 1: Heroic Strivers ... Mattering type 2: Socializers ... Mattering type 3: Transcenders ... Mattering type 4: Competitors ... “The” meaning of life problem ... Does what drives us divide us? ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... Paul's new baby is reportedly cute ... The Tucker-Trump fracture ... Parenting later in life ... Paul's TED talk on AI and loneliness ... When does embryo screening become eugenics? ... Is intelligence a positional good? ... Heading to Overtime ...

Rob's role in the Obama nuclear deal ... A deal that could work for both Trump and Iran ... Iran's security “guarantee” problem ... Bob: If I were Iran, I would say… ... What Obama's negotiators had that Trump's don't ... How unified is the Iranian side? ... Is Iran's Hormuz leverage running dry? ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... Trump's Middle East chaos continues ... Is Iran more about America's hegemony or Israel's? ... Who will win the Hormuz blockade duel? ... Ukraine, China, and the drone wars ... America's “emergency” emergency ... Is an Iran peace deal possible? ... Overtime preview: The Anthropic Mythos scare ...

Teaser ... Trump's Iran blockade breaks the ceasefire ... A Chinese tanker calls Trump's bluff ... Bob's case for an Iranian "tollgate" ... Anthropic's Mythos model is too dangerous to release ... Nikita's big idea: AI as world peace mediator ... Heading to Overtime ...

A brief message from Bob ... Shakeel's newsletter, Transformer, and its mission ... The case(s) against Sam Altman ... OpenAI President Greg Brockman's political spending ... The founding doctrines of the leading AI labs ... The singleton and the singularity ... How market forces overwhelm good intentions ... Is the singularity near? ... Sam vs. Dario vs. Demis ... Heading to Overtime ...

Bob and Eli's history of (civil) disagreement on Iran ... Is Trump's war on Iran legal? Does it matter? ... Who's the real rogue state? ... Israel's nukes and Iran's nuclear program ... Is Israel more moral than Iran? ... How Hamas became Hamas ... “Proxy,” “theocracy,” and other fighting words ... Heading to Overtime ...

Would America benefit from Iran “winning”? ... Trump's last exit ramp? ... What's China's angle on the war? ... Trump: psychoanalyzed ... Israel: psychoanalyzed ... Iran's plans for the Strait of Hormuz ... Is this Trump's biggest blunder? ... The intra-MAGA war over Iran (and Israel) ... Where are the Democrats? ... Antisemitism, alleged and real ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... Defining (and preventing) superintelligence ... Where the nuclear analogy holds (and where it breaks) ... Imagining an AI inspections regime ... The superintelligence precursors to watch for ... Nikita: "I find him weirdly persuasive on a hypnotist kind of level" ... Our dangerous lack of government oversight ... ControlAI's "bottom-up" approach to AI policy ... The mounting geopolitical challenges to AI governance ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... Holy Week in Andalusia, and the Christian cross as branding ... Why Bob is skeptical of Trump's diplomacy ... Trump's hand got weaker and he doesn't even know it ... Killing Iran's navy chief won't reopen the Strait of Hormuz ... Nikita: "I find him weirdly persuasive on a hypnotist kind of level" ... The Iran war's secret winner: Vladimir Putin ... Bob checked back into AI podcasts and came out scared ... "Every time I see tribalism on parade, I think: we're toast on AI" ... Russia's Internet shutdowns ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... What (or who) is the Iran war for? ... Joe Kent and the MAGA rift over Israel ... Does antisemitism speech policing foment antisemitism? ... What Ron's Substack has that others don't ... Heading to Overtime ...

Teaser ... Overtime preview: a civil(-ish) debate on Israel-Palestine ... How vibe-coding changed Liron's life ... Portents of the AI jobpocalypse ... What can humans do that AI agents can't? ... The Darwinian case for AI doom ... OpenClaw vs SkyNet ... Liron: I love AI! We need to stop it. ... Amodei, Altman, and the Pentagon triangle ... Heading to Overtime ...