Nomura Podcasts

Market dynamics in the last week have been dominated by developments in the Middle East, where the ongoing military action between Israel and Iran continues to have a notable impact on investor risk sentiment and oil prices. In the US and Europe, we dissect a week of central bank decisions, including the Fed and the Bank of England. In Asia we look at how trade is evolving and discuss local political developments in Thailand. Chapters: US (01:42), Europe (10:59), Asia (16:01). 

Ongoing trade deal developments remain the largest driver of global markets right now. Our focus next week will be on the G7 Summit in Canada, to see if there are any further trade developments. We look ahead to central bank meetings in Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Japan, as well as fresh ECB communication and policy meetings across the UK, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway. Chapters: US (01:48), China (07:39), Europe (11:31), Japan (14:31), Rest of Asia (18:22), Australia & New Zealand (21:37).

In this episode, we discuss our high conviction views and the second half outlook presented at our flagship Nomura Investment Forum Asia (NIFA) which recently took place in Singapore. Key themes at the conference were centered around US trade and fiscal policy, tensions with China, geopolitical risks, and de-dollarization. We also discuss how the rest of the world, as well as market participants, are navigating this highly uncertain global environment.

There has been a few surprises this week highlighting the unpredictable and unconventional nature of US policy making. For the week ahead, our focus will be on the May Payrolls report in the US and the Bank of Canada policy decision. In Europe, we take a look at the impact of tariffs and geopolitics from a European perspective, and also discuss the policy meeting in India, earnings data in Japan and broad inflation trends across Asia. Chapters: Europe (01:55), US (06:05), Asia (11:05).

It has been another big week in markets. We discuss US fiscal developments and how the Fed might respond as well as preview US inflation data. In focus for the week ahead is also central bank decisions in Australia, New Zealand and South Korea, alongside India's growth outlook. In Europe, we discuss recent signs of softening of inflation and why the ECB still has room to cut rates. Chapters: US (01:50), Australia & New Zealand (07:31), India (10:33), Asia (17:19), Europe (18:03). 

This week started with a bang after the sharp de-escalation of US and China tensions, with both sides agreeing to reduce tariffs in the next 90 days. We discuss the near-term economic implications, as well as the prospects of reaching a more lasting trade deal. We also preview upcoming UK CPI and European survey data and whether trade talks with Europe can also make progress. We end with a special segment on FX markets to discuss why sticking to a medium-term soft USD view makes sense and which currencies could outperform in this environment. Chapters: US (02:06), China (07:35), Asia (12:31), Europe (13:46), FX Special Segment (18:14). 

In the week to date, the major themes remain around tariffs, policy and uncertainty, and what central banks will make of it all. Weaker growth but higher inflation could leave central banks in a tricky spot. In the week ahead, our focus in the US will be on April retail sales and CPI, and the latest tariff developments. In Europe, we recap the central bank meetings over the past week and look ahead to UK labour market and GDP data. Then we turn to Japan to consider Q1 growth, as well as tariff and trade negotiations. Chapters: US (01:47), Europe (09:54), Japan (13:19), Asia (16:12).

The focus this week turns to central banks. We discuss the Fed staying on-hold amid likely more pressures from Trump, and the uncertain outlook for US tax policy which is becoming a top legislative priority. We also discuss our expectations for the Bank of England, Norges Bank and Riksbank which could have diverging decisions but some risk of a dovish tone, as well as Beijing's latest stance on de-escalation and stimulus prospects. All eyes will be on the data to gauge how much of the tariffs are already starting to have an impact, on how these central banks factor in the uncertainty, and on any progress on the trade talks where things also remain influx. Chapters: US (01:56), Europe (10:58), China (14:42), Asia (20:00).

As trade tensions show signs of softening and financial markets stabilise, we discuss the recent changes to our central bank views for both the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, and outline our thinking on recent US-Japan trade negotiations. In this episode, we also preview the upcoming US labour market data and discuss what the election in Canada may mean for the economy and markets. Chapters: Europe (02:19), Japan (05:53), Asia (11:02), US (12:23).

We have seen some calm return this week, which has coincided with President Trump making some tariff concessions for tech companies and for auto parts, suggesting that a 'Trump put' is in play, and with the President also signalling “big progress” in talks with Japanese officials. However, we have to say this is an uneasy calm; new sectoral tariffs are still likely coming and tensions with China remain elevated. We discuss the latest tariff twists and turns, fresh communication from Fed Chair Powell and upcoming US data, as well as the ECB's recent 25bp rate cut. Across Asia, we will look out for Bank Indonesia's policy meeting, Korea export data and Tokyo CPI. Chapters: US (02:16), Europe (08:47), Asia (13:13).

Global financial markets remain on edge after a rebound from the 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs for most countries except China. In this episode, we discuss the path forward for negotiations with US trade partners. We also discuss Europe's changing stance to negotiate rather than retaliate, and the ECB looking set to cut again next week. In Asia, we outline the posture from Beijing, with the Q1 GDP data also on tap.  We end with a special segment with Rob Subbaraman, Head of Global Macro Research, who offers his perspectives on major global questions, including how damaging the ‘tariff shock' could be on global growth, and possible reasons behind the on-going decline in US asset prices. Chapters: US (02:08), Europe (07:30), China (12:25), Rest of Asia (17:48), Tariffs (19:16).  

It's been another tumultuous week in financial markets following President Trump's tariff announcements on 2nd April. Tariffs were broad and generally larger than expected and financial markets did not digest them all that well, although some resilience in US labour market data appears to be curbing some of the downside for now. In this episode, we will go into the detail of what trade policy is being implemented and what it means for various economies. Chapters: US (01:27), Europe (09:00), Asia (14:01), Australia and New Zealand (20:15). 

In the week to date, US bond yields are a little higher across the curve, and the USD has been a little stronger too, while equities really have had a couple of up and down days. Another big theme for global markets has been around the idea of US exceptionalism, that took a dent as some US data printed weaker, Europe data looked better, and as China and Europe announced some stimulus plans over prior weeks. For the week ahead, it really is crunch time with April 2 tariff announcements just around the corner. Chapters: US (01:56), Europe (10:47), Asia (13:59).

Financial markets have been difficult to navigate, with equity markets bouncing from their recent lows but still seeing sizable intraday swings. Interest rates seem to be similarly caught between potential upside inflation risks from some sources, and challenging growth dynamics on the other. And all of this comes ahead of the April 2nd tariff announcements from the US which also have the potential to jolt markets further. In Europe, we look for further signs that German's fiscal reform is feeding into stronger growth expectations, while the UK's fiscal room looks more constrained. In Asia, we discuss likely policy responses in Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore. Chapters: US (02:08), Europe (11:05), Asia (15:31).

Market participants continue to grapple with a very high degree of uncertainty which is starting to have real economic consequences. The week ahead should be very interesting with key central bank decisions, and we could get some guidance on how policymakers think about and deal with the uncertainty, particularly from rising global trade tensions. We share our expectations for an on-hold decision at the upcoming FOMC meeting, and for the Fed's tone to continue to emphasize patience. We also expect a pause from the BOE's cutting cycle. Lastly, we discuss why communication is a bigger focus this time from the BOJ's meeting where a skip in the hiking cycle is widely expected. Chapters: US (01:53), Europe (10:39), Japan (16:43), Asia (21:22).

 Markets have seen sizable moves as the US administration ramped up tariffs and Germany announced a huge fiscal package. (02:30) With US tariffs hitting last week, we discuss what is actually in place, what is likely to come and the impact on the US, China and Europe. (15:15) Germany's fiscal stimulus is having a major market impact and should meaningfully raise growth, inflation and ECB expectations. (20:15) We also preview next week's inflation data out of the US and China.

It's a big week for China with all eyes on the National People's Congress (NPC), where fiscal measures could be announced. We outline our expectations and whether the NPC could potentially provide a lift in market sentiment. In the US, we preview the February employment report and its impact on Fed policy, and digest the latest announcements on tariffs. In Europe, we discuss our expectations of the ECB, where we go from here after the German elections and what is Europe's next move around the peace deal. Chapters: US (02:10), Europe (07:40), Asia (15:45).

Market sentiment seems to be holding in pretty well as this week comes to a close. Equity markets are generally holding up at healthy levels, credit spreads remain pretty tight, and commodity currencies, which are often seen as global growth sensitive and risk barometers, are holding up at higher levels. This week in the US, our focus will be on core PCE inflation and any new Trump or tariff developments. In Europe, we'll be watching the German election fallout, along with the latest inflation readings. Then it's the latest from Asia, with central bank meetings in Korea and Thailand, and China PMI data ahead. Chapters: US (02:16), Europe (06:46), Asia (11:31).

Early signs of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal are boosting market optimism, with EUR/USD trading up towards its highest level since late-January and European equities continuing to surge. We discuss what this might mean for the euro area outlook. This positivity is, however, still being partially offset by the ongoing threat of US tariffs and by sticky inflation data in the US. We also preview next week's central bank decisions in Australia, New Zealand and Indonesia. Chapters: Europe (02:02), Asia (07:32), US (11:38).

This past week began with the news that Mexico and Canada had secured a temporary reprieve from US tariffs. However, we see higher tariffs as highly likely. This week also brought us stronger-than-expected earnings data in Japan. Looking ahead, in the US our focus will be on any further tariff news, the January CPI and Fed-speak. In Europe, we'll be watching out for the latest activity readings, and ECB and BOE speakers, as well as a central bank meeting in the Philippines. Chapters: US (01:49), Europe (06:22), Asia (10:31).

It's been another big week, with the news on DeepSeek rattling global equity markets, led by the tech sector. The Fed's on-hold decision came and went as expected, however we have made an important change to our Fed forecasts. Coming up, the US employment report will be key to watch, alongside hints on whether tariffs will soon be implemented. Elsewhere, we have the BOE decision where a cut is widely expected, while activity data in Europe could again remain weak. In Asia, the spotlight is on India with a likely pivotal central bank decision on tap, just a few days after the government's FY26 budget was unveiled. Chapters: US (02:12), Europe (08:02), Asia (12:21).

We are only a few days into President Trump's new term, but already there has been a lot of action. Over 25 executive orders have been signed, and we discuss what these might mean for the macro economic outlook. In Europe, we look at the likely 25bp cut by the ECB, signs of short-term positivity in the region and the possible response to Trump's policies. Finally, we focus on how the latest developments impact China and what policy response, if any, is on its way. Chapters: US (01:53), Europe (07:31), Asia (10:32).

We've had a very busy start to the year and the excitement is likely to continue with the focus on Donald Trump's inauguration on Monday 20th January. In this episode, we outline what policy announcements to expect in the early part of Trump's second term, and how Asian economies may respond. In Europe we will be digging into recent UK market volatility and prospects for the labour market. And last but certainly not least, we preview the Bank of Japan decision, where we expect a 25bp hike. Chapters: Markets (01:08) US (02:11), Asia (09:31), Europe (12:56), Japan (18:04).

The week ahead promises to be another eventful one, with key CPI data in the US and the UK. We also have tier-1 data in China and a couple of central bank decisions in Asia. Recent comments from President-elect Trump particularly on tariffs, could provide some hints of what's to come as we approach his inauguration. We will close with a special segment focusing on the outlook for Asian currencies, which have been facing significant pressures recently and are therefore in the spotlight. Chapters: US (01:35), Europe (07:11), Asia (11:18), Asia FX (18:37).

This year could be all about Trump, tariffs, and potentially turbulence. In this episode, we discuss our recently published annual outlooks and shine a spotlight on the key data and events over the coming week. In the US, our focus will be on the services ISM and payrolls reports. In Europe, CPI and final December PMI data will be released. Then it's the latest from Asia, with Japan earnings, China loan data, and CPI reports from across the region. Chapters: US (03:46), Europe (09:10), Asia (14:05).

Year end is approaching fast, but we still have key central bank meetings and data to look out for next week. In the US, our focus will be on the Fed policy decision, and the latest core inflation and activity readings. In Europe, the Bank of England meets, and key labour market and inflation data will be released. Then it's the latest from Asia, with the Bank of Japan and four other central banks across the region set to make policy announcements. Chapters: US (02:00), Europe (06:20), China (10:10), Japan (15:30), Rest of Asia (17:04)

Starting next week we have monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia. These along with a few key data releases set the tone for the week after which is promising to be a blockbuster week, when we have the Fed, Bank of Japan and Bank of England, plus a few central banks in Asia all on deck. We also have a special segment in this episode where we focus on the 2025 outlook for Asia. Chapters: US (01:56), Europe (08:04), Asia (13:26), Asia 2025 Outlook (14:43)

Trump's tariff announcements have started to move markets. We discuss how to interpret the latest US political developments and provide a preview of this week's all important labour market data. In Asia, the Reserve Bank of India is set to meet and may offer some dovish guidance. While in Europe, we preview the PMIs and Swiss inflation data. Chapters: US (02:18), Asia (10:08), Europe (16:14).

Inflation and policy rates are returning towards normal in many countries. This week our focus turns back towards normal market drivers. We discuss core inflation in the US and the latest set of Fed meeting minutes. Across Europe, we have a number of central bank speakers, key inflation and growth readings to watch out for, as well as Tokyo inflation, China PMIs and central bank meetings in Korea and New Zealand. Chapters: US (02:17), Europe (05:22), Korea (08:22), Rest of Asia (10:37).

In last week's podcast we focused on the US and China following Donald Trump's win in the US presidential elections. This week we continue to discuss the implications of Trump 2.0 on other parts of the globe. Also on deck next week are US housing starts data, CPI prints in the UK and Japan, as well as Bank Indonesia likely again pausing amid external aftershocks from the US election. Chapters: US (02:03), Europe (07:54), Japan (12:31), Asia (17:53)

Following Donald Trump's win in the US presidential elections, we outline the new policy outlook and what we think it means for the global economy and markets. We also discuss the National People's Congress in China, with the policy decisions there likely to shape investors' perceptions of both the outlook in China but also the broader impact on risk sentiment and global growth dynamics. Chapters: US (02:30), Asia (11:04), Europe (14:36)

It's been a busy past week with European Q3 GDP data and an expansionary UK budget, which led to a rise in European and UK bond yields. We also saw China PMI data print a tiny bit better and a pretty solid Q3 GDP growth report in the US. Over the coming week, it's crunch time in the US with the election finally upon us. We discuss how markets may react as the results start to roll in next week. We also have at least five central bank meetings to look out for, and with an expected 25bp rate cut in the US. Chapters: US (02:42), Europe (07:22), China (11:14), Rest of Asia (15:09)

This week we witnessed some pretty material moves in markets. There was a rate cut announcement from the Bank of Canada and the theme of growth exceptionalism in the US, combined with communication from various Fed officials, has led the market to continue to unwind some of its prior aggressive Fed rate cut expectations. As we look ahead to the coming week, things are going to really heat up with US Payrolls and inflation data, European GDP, the UK budget, China PMI, and inflation reports in Indonesia and Australia. And of course, the US election race is coming down to the wire. Chapters: US (02:14), Europe (07:57), China (10:33), Rest of Asia (15:51)

In this episode, we discuss the upcoming US elections, and how US economic sentiment has been holding up in the second half of the year. In Europe, the focus next week will be on flash PMIs, especially after the ECB noted that they have seen downside surprises in indicators of economic activity. Could UK public sector borrowing numbers change the game for the UK budget? In Asia, the focus is on Japan where we have crucial inflation data for October. Chapters: US (01:16), Europe (08:11), Asia (10:24)

Central banks remain very much in focus over the coming week, with policy meetings in Europe and across Asia. We're expecting rate cuts from two of those and the theme of divergence, based on local dynamics, seems very much in play. Some central banks look set to deliver more easing than perhaps would have been expected only a month ago, but some a little less. Aside from the central banks, we'll need to watch out for fiscal policy news from China, as well as ongoing developments in the Middle East. Chapters: US (02:13), Europe (06:17), Asia (09:26), China (12:56)

What we have seen so far this week is markets buoyed by recent announcements regarding China policy stimulus but then troubled by developments in the middle east. Coming up, we expect rate cuts in India, Korea and New Zealand next week, and from the ECB soon after. We are recording this podcast ahead of US Payrolls data which has become an increasingly critical release for markets. Chapters: US (02:17), Europe (07:54), Asia (10:54)

As we celebrate our 200th episode, we have a big week coming up in the US with the labour market report. In Europe, the most important data next week is euro area flash inflation, and we discuss whether inflation data may edge the ECB closer to an October rate cut. In Asia, the focus is on China's PMIs and Japanese industrial production.  Chapters: US (01:20), Europe (05:55), Asia (10:27)

It's been a busy week in the US, the Fed surprised many Economists by kicking off its cutting cycle with a 50bp cut. Is it a speedy descent for US rates from here? Also coming up this week, Europe is at the center of the action with several important data releases - we have flash PMIs, Spanish and French inflation and central bank meetings in Sweden and Switzerland. Then, it's the latest from Asia with Australia's RBA decision, Tokyo CPI and BOJ minutes.   Chapters: US (01:16), Europe (04:30), Asia (08:53)

Coming up this week, in the US we expect the Fed to commence its easing campaign, with a 25bp move. Across Europe, the focus will be on the Bank of England policy meeting. Then it's the latest from Asia, with central bank meetings in Japan, Indonesia and Taiwan. Chapters: US (01:15), Europe (05:18), Asia (07:54)

It's been another interesting week in global markets with equities and commodity prices having another serious wobble, and bond yields declining, surprising many. This week we consider the latest US election polling numbers and what a Trump presidency might mean for economies and markets. We also look towards the coming ECB meeting, which should be a key highlight of the week ahead, along with China data. We are recording this ahead of critical US Payrolls data, which could well determine whether the Fed delivers a 25 or 50bp rate cut later this month. Chapters: US (01:47), Europe (07:11), Asia (09:41)

Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist and Ruchir Sharma, US Economist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. Euro area and US inflation data should tee up central banks for more cutting in September. Chapters: US (02:40), Europe (06:36), Asia (11:29)

Hear from Andrew Ticehurst, Host & Australia Economist, George Buckley, Chief UK & Euro Area Economist, David Seif, Chief Economist for Developed Markets, and Charnon Boonnuch, Asia Economist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. New Zealand and the Philippines join the rate cut pack, while the Fed remains on track to deliver a first 25bp rate cut in September. Chapters: US (02:22), Europe (08:45), Asia (11:49)

Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, Jeremy Schwartz, Senior US Economist, and Dominic Bunning, Head of G10 FX Strategy, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. Market uncertainty is rife. Key data from the US and UK may set the record straight. Chapters: Week Ahead Key Themes with Dominic Bunning (01:12), US (05:11), Europe (09:38), Asia (13:41)

Hear from Andrew Ticehurst, Host and Australia Economist, David Seif, Chief Economist for Developed Markets, and George Buckley, Chief UK & Euro Area Economist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. The central bank divide widens, with a second rate hike in Japan, and a first cut in the UK. Chapters: US (02:29), Europe (11:12), Asia (14:57)

Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, David Seif, Chief Economist for Developed Markets, Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist, and Yusuke Miyairi, FX Strategist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. It's one of the busiest weeks on the podcast with the FOMC, BoE, BOJ, nonfarm payroll and top-tier data out of the Euro area. Chapters: US (02:20), Europe (07:53), Asia (12:00)

Hear from Andrew Ticehurst, Host and Australia Economist, Jeremy Schwartz, Senior US Economist, Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist, and Jeong Woo Park, Asia Economist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. The easing cycle has commenced, but central banks are running their own race. Chapters: US (01:13), Europe (06:14), Asia (09:08)

Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, George Buckley, Chief UK & Euro Area Economist, and Hannah Liu, China Economist, as they discuss the key drivers for global markets next week. Europe will be in focus this week with crucial UK data and ECB rate decision due. China is also likely to face continued economic pressure. Chapters: US (01:30), Europe (04:14), Asia (9:10)

Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist, David Seif, Chief Economist for Developed Markets, and George Buckley, Chief UK & Euro Area Economist, as they discuss the key drivers for global markets next week. Political events are moving fast in the UK, France and the US, but markets will probably move the most, as they typically do, on US CPI. Chapters: US (01:12), Europe (06:54), Asia (13:12)

Hear from Andrew Ticehurst, Host and Australia Economist, Ruchir Sharma, US Economist, and Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist as they discuss the key drivers for global markets next week. The focus turns to elections over the coming week, but inflation still matters. Chapters: U.S. (01:15), Europe (05:34), Asia (10:41)

Hear from Andrew Ticehurst, Host and Australia Economist, Kohei Okazaki, Senior Japan Economist, Andrzej Szczepaniak, Senior European Economist and Hannah Liu, China Economist, as they review the key market drivers over the week ahead. Markets to seek confirmation that US inflation is moderating, with multiple Fed rate cuts now priced.

Hear from George Moran, Host & European Economist and George Buckley, Chief UK and Euro Area Economist, as they discuss the key drivers for global markets over the coming week. It's decision time for central banks with three meetings in Europe and three in Asia, although ultimately most central banks are likely to remain on hold. Chapters: U.S. (01:14), Europe (07:06), Asia (14:09)