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Last time we spoke about the Japanese offensive at Changsha. In late September 1941, fighting in China had become a brutal struggle of endurance. Japanese forces kept pushing forward, but China—though battered by heavy losses—refused to yield. Help from abroad was slowly beginning to matter. American aid reached China through groups like the Red Cross, and volunteers later associated with the Flying Tigers offered crucial support to Chinese operations. Against this backdrop, Changsha in Hunan became the center of a dangerous autumn campaign. Chiang Kai-shek and the Nationalist leadership treated the city as strategically vital, knowing that its fate could influence the wider course of the war. In the end, the resistance at Changsha showed China's key advantage: resilience. The city's defense helped slow the Japanese advance, break up momentum, and create uncertainty as the campaign continued.   #212 The Autumn Battle of Changsha, 1941 Welcome to the Fall and Rise of China Podcast, I am your dutiful host Craig Watson. But, before we start I want to also remind you this podcast is only made possible through the efforts of Kings and Generals over at Youtube. Perhaps you want to learn more about the history of Asia? Kings and Generals have an assortment of episodes on history of asia and much more  so go give them a look over on Youtube. So please subscribe to Kings and Generals over at Youtube and to continue helping us produce this content please check out www.patreon.com/kingsandgenerals. If you are still hungry for some more history related content, over on my channel, the Pacific War Channel where I cover the history of China and Japan from the 19th century until the end of the Pacific War. In late September 1941, the war in China had already entered its fifth year. By then the conflict had lost whatever remained of novelty and had settled into something harsher and more exhausting: a long war of attrition fought across enormous distances, under conditions of chronic shortage, strategic uncertainty, and repeated local catastrophe. Japan still possessed formidable military strength. Its armies could strike hard, move fast, and exploit superior firepower, air support, and communications in individual campaigns. Yet the larger shape of the war had begun to change. China had not collapsed. The Nationalist government still stood. Chinese armies, however battered, still held the field. The line between survival and defeat remained dangerously thin, but it had not broken. This was the situation in which the autumn campaign in Hunan and Hubei unfolded.   The struggle around Changsha did not occur in isolation. It belonged to a wider military and political moment. In Europe, the war had already expanded into a continent-wide convulsion. Germany and the Soviet Union were locked in a massive struggle after the German invasion in June. Leningrad was under threat, Kiev had become the scene of disaster, and the approach of the battle for Moscow suggested that still greater bloodshed lay ahead. Stalin had pressed Churchill to open a second front in Europe and had been refused. The global balance of war was shifting, but not yet in any way that guaranteed relief to China.   In Asia, Japan continued to press forward. The pressure on China remained immense. Yet by mid-1941 China's position, though still precarious, no longer looked quite as desperate as it had in earlier years. International sympathy had grown. Material aid, however limited, was beginning to take more concrete form. In July, the American Red Cross sent China medical supplies worth millions of dollars. In August, more than a hundred retired American pilots and mechanics came together to aid China against Japan. The air unit they formed, later celebrated as the Flying Tigers, meant more than aircraft and personnel alone. It signaled that China's war was no longer quite so isolated. That change in atmosphere did not produce calm in Chongqing. It sharpened urgency.   For Chiang Kai-shek, the possibility that the international situation might slowly improve for China carried with it a hard implication: China had to endure long enough to benefit from it. That meant surviving not in abstract terms, but in particular places, against particular offensives, at moments when a local defeat might have consequences far beyond the immediate battlefield. In the autumn of 1941, one of those places was Changsha. Changsha had long occupied an outsized place in the military geography of the war. It stood as the capital of Hunan, a hinge between regions, and a vital position in the defense of central China. Its security affected the Xiang River basin, communications across the province, and the broader defensive posture shielding approaches toward the wartime capital. To lose it, even temporarily, would be more than a symbolic blow. It would threaten the larger balance of the front in south-central China and test whether Japanese offensives could still force dramatic strategic results.   At the same time, the battle for Changsha was not a simple contest between one Chinese army and one Japanese army facing each other across a fixed line. It was part of a larger operational struggle linking the Ninth War Zone with supporting actions from the Third, Fifth, and Sixth War Zones. It involved frontal resistance, hurried reinforcement, mobile defense, rear harassment, and the constant effort to turn Japanese momentum into Japanese overextension. Chinese commanders were trying not merely to survive a blow, but to absorb it, stretch it, and eventually strike back against an enemy whose speed could become a liability once supply lines lengthened and formations dispersed. This was the burden resting on the Military Commission in Chongqing.   There, while reports arrived in fragments and maps were revised hour by hour, Chiang Kai-shek spent long stretches in the operations room watching the situation in Hunan and Hubei develop. He had already ordered the various war zones to support the Ninth War Zone's operations, and now he followed the campaign with intense concentration. His attention moved repeatedly toward reports from the Sixth War Zone and Chen Cheng's counteroffensive toward Yichang, for Yichang was tied not only to local fighting in Hubei but also to the defense of the Yangtze approach and therefore to the security of Chongqing itself. In his mind, Hunan and Hubei had become the focal point of China's war effort in that season.   Meanwhile at the front, the situation was deteriorating fast. Japanese forces pressing into northern Hunan had already imposed severe strain on the Chinese defense. Blocking units had been battered back. Communications were uncertain. Some formations fought stubbornly but could not hold; others dissolved more quickly than hoped. The Japanese advance toward Changsha created exactly the kind of crisis Chinese commanders feared most: one in which the enemy moved with enough force and speed to threaten a major city before a coherent defensive response could be reassembled. Chinese units had to be thrown into action as they arrived, often after exhausting marches, often with incomplete knowledge of the situation, and often under immediate pressure from artillery, aircraft, and aggressive infantry assaults. Yet even at this dangerous stage, the campaign contained an opportunity as well as a threat.   The deeper Japanese units pushed into Hunan, the more exposed their rear became. Supply depots, transport lines, and communications stretched farther behind the spearhead. Chinese formations that had been driven aside were not always destroyed; some remained capable of reappearing to strike roads, depots, and isolated detachments. If Changsha represented the visible center of the struggle, the enemy rear represented its hidden vulnerability. The Chinese aim, therefore, was not simply to defend passively around the city. It was to combine stubborn resistance in front with harassment and disruption behind, so that Japanese advance would become increasingly difficult to sustain. The battle that followed unfolded under these pressures: a threatened city, a strained but unbroken defense, commanders forced to improvise under severe danger, and a wider international war that made every local decision feel heavier than the ground on which it was taken.   This subtle improvement in China's larger situation did not mean safety. China was still battered, under-resourced, and vulnerable. Japanese forces still possessed enormous advantages in mobility, firepower, and air power in many sectors. Large parts of the country remained occupied or threatened. Yet by mid-1941 something in the atmosphere had changed. In July, the American Red Cross sent China medical supplies worth millions of dollars. In August, more than a hundred retired American pilots and mechanics came together to aid China in its struggle against Japan. The air unit they formed would become famous under the name by which China knew them: the Flying Tigers. Their significance exceeded their immediate tactical value. They represented a visible sign that China was not entirely abandoned to isolation.   For Claire Chennault, romantic, aggressive, and optimistic by temperament, the new situation encouraged increasingly bold thoughts. For the first time he included in his planning the idea that Japanese home territory might one day be bombed from bases in China. Such schemes were ambitious and perhaps premature, but their very existence reveals an altered horizon of possibility. A country that imagines striking back is already psychologically in a different position from one concerned only with preventing collapse.     Yichang mattered directly to the fighting in Xiangbei, but it also mattered independently. It was tied to the security of the Yangtze approach and therefore to the defense of Chongqing. It belonged not only to the immediate problem of battlefield maneuver but to the larger question of whether China could do more than absorb Japanese offensives. Could Chinese forces exploit enemy overstretch? Could Japanese advances be turned into liabilities? Could local counterattacks and rear harassment generate effects greater than the raw size of the forces involved? By September 1941, these questions were no longer hypothetical. They were urgent. In Chiang's mind, Hunan and Hubei had become the focal point of China's war effort in that season.   The struggle around Changsha was central to that effort. From Chongqing, Chiang telegraphed Commander Xue Yue of the Ninth War Zone with instructions that made both the danger and the opportunity plain. The message emphasized that the enemy in northern Hunan, though still pressing hard, had already been bravely intercepted by Chinese units and was now exhausted, with lines of advance increasingly difficult to sustain. This, Chiang argued, created an excellent opportunity for Chinese forces to strike at the enemy's rear and seek annihilation rather than mere delay. He urged officers and soldiers alike to remain determined to destroy the enemy. Even if Japanese troops advanced to the vicinity of Changsha itself, Chinese forces were to renew their efforts, maintain their confidence in victory, and prevent the enemy from establishing a foothold.   The telegram also pointed to the broader operational picture. Japanese troops drawn from the sectors of the Fifth and Sixth War Zones had been committed to the invasion of northern Hunan, leaving their rear areas dangerously exposed. The Third, Fifth, and Sixth War Zones had launched supporting offensives on the twenty-third. Therefore, the Ninth War Zone had to strike resolutely and fiercely, preventing the Japanese from coordinating their forces and frustrating any attempt to occupy Changsha. The message was at once exhortation and operational logic. It reflected the core Chinese problem in the campaign: the Japanese thrust was dangerous and had to be blocked, but the very speed and depth of that thrust could also expose the attacker. Yet by the time Chiang sent his instructions, the danger around Changsha was already severe. After the 74th Army had been beaten back, there was no major Chinese force north of the city that could confidently block the Japanese advance in a straightforward, stable line. The Japanese 4th Division, together with the Hayabuchi Detachment, had defeated the 95th Division of the Chinese 37th Army and pushed toward Changsha. The prospect that the city might fall, at least temporarily, was no longer remote.   In response, Xia Chuzhong's 79th Army from the Sixth War Zone was ordered to move toward the city. Its vanguard was Wang Jiaben's 98th Division. That movement was a forced march in the literal sense. It was not a flourish of language but an admission of emergency. Troops were pushed beyond ordinary endurance because there was no time to gather strength under favorable conditions. Changsha could not wait for convenience, rest, or ideal concentration. Either reinforcements arrived in time to fight immediately, or they arrived too late to matter. Wang Jiaben was no stranger to battle. A veteran officer from the Yunnan Army, he had fought the Japanese repeatedly—more than twenty times since the outbreak of the War of Resistance. He belonged to that generation of commanders who had been shaped by the fragmented military politics of Republican China but whose careers were now being rewritten by the national emergency of the anti-Japanese war.   During the First Battle of Changsha, he had already distinguished himself. He led troops in a counterattack along the Tongcheng line in southern Hubei and intercepted retreating Japanese forces at Longmenchang and Changshoujie, killing more than a thousand enemy soldiers. He had experience, reputation, and a sense of what it meant to fight in the Changsha theater. This time he marched from Changde, driving his division forward with all possible speed. By noon on September 26 the 98th Division reached a position about two kilometers northeast of Changsha. There was scarcely time to settle the men. No careful preparation was possible. They had arrived because the city was in danger, and battle began almost at once. At dusk the division engaged the Hayabuchi Detachment.   The fighting continued until late in the night without decisive result. That in itself was costly enough. Troops who have just completed a punishing march are already close to the limits of their endurance. To be thrown immediately into combat magnifies every weakness: thirst, fatigue, confusion, and the difficulty of building fieldworks under pressure. What the soldiers of the 98th Division could do that night, they did with their hands and whatever tools they had. They scraped positions out of the earth. They assembled makeshift cover. Officers moved along the line trying to impose order on terrain that had become a battlefield almost as soon as it was occupied. At dawn on September 27 the Japanese intensified the pressure from the air.   More than twenty aircraft bombed the 98th Division's positions, tearing apart the earthworks that officers and soldiers had spent the night constructing. Bombing had a double effect. Physically, it damaged positions, wounded men, and disrupted preparations. Psychologically, it reminded defenders that they were being observed from above and struck by an enemy against whom they could often do little in the sky. Immediately after the bombing came a fierce infantry assault. Wang Jiaben and several other commanders went down to their respective regiments to supervise the fighting personally. This was dangerous, but under such circumstances commanders often believed that presence itself mattered. When fieldworks are collapsing, shell bursts are continuous, and communications are unreliable, authority must sometimes be carried by a body rather than a wire. The defenders held.   Again and again the Japanese attacked. Again and again they were repulsed only to reorganize and come on once more. Every minute the Chinese line remained in place was bought with blood. Fallen and wounded men were carried rearward in what seemed an endless stream. The cost of resistance accumulated visibly before the eyes of those still fighting. By noon even water could no longer be delivered to the front. That detail reveals the intensity of the battle more clearly than many grander statements could. A line that cannot be supplied even with water has reached a condition of severe strain. During brief pauses in the fighting, officers and soldiers pulled out dry rations and chewed them slowly, swallowing with difficulty while they waited for the next attack. Such moments are among the most characteristic in battle: not the long, smooth continuity imagined in peacetime rhetoric, but brief interludes of miserable necessity between explosions. At two in the afternoon the crisis deepened sharply.   A unit of the Japanese 4th Division worked its way behind the 98th Division's position and attacked from the rear. This was the kind of tactical development every defending commander dreads. A force can endure heavy frontal pressure if its line remains coherent and its rear reasonably secure. But when enemy troops appear behind a position, the entire structure of defense begins to dissolve. There, behind the line, were more than a hundred Chinese wounded awaiting evacuation. Japanese soldiers attacked them with bayonets. One of the wounded Chinese soldiers, already beyond ordinary capacity for resistance, rushed forward and detonated a grenade against a Japanese attacker. It was an act of desperation, but also of defiance. The episode captures something essential about the tone of the battle around Changsha. This was not a neat engagement between organized lines alone. It was a desperate collision in which even the badly wounded were drawn into last resistance. For Wang Jiaben, however, the tactical reality was impossible to deny. If he stayed where he was, the division might be annihilated. Personal courage could not alter encirclement. Resentfully, bitterly, and under the kind of pressure that leaves permanent scars on a commander's memory, he ordered retreat. When he led the survivors off the battlefield, fewer than half his men remained.   Reinforcements from another direction now entered the struggle. The Provisional 2nd Army of the Seventh War Zone dispatched the Provisional 8th Division under Zhang Junsong. At seven in the evening on September 27, Zhang's force arrived at Zuojiatang on the eastern outskirts of Changsha. Personnel of the Ninth War Zone waiting there reported grim news: a Japanese detachment had already entered the city that afternoon, and another detachment was only three kilometers away. The situation invited rashness. A commander arriving near a threatened city at dusk, with reports that the enemy is already inside, may feel compelled to hurl troops forward immediately in a gesture of resolution. Yet night fighting in an urban approach without adequate reconnaissance can turn courage into waste. Zhang Junsong considered the matter carefully. He concluded that to rush blindly into the city at night would likely produce confusion and heavy losses. Instead he first sought to strike the enemy outside the city. His troops deployed quietly and crept forward through the darkness, launching a probing attack. But they soon discovered that the Japanese were fully prepared and not vulnerable to easy surprise. The line could not be broken. With no prospect of success, the force withdrew.   The moment is revealing because it shows how narrow the margin had become. Chinese commanders were trying to recover initiative while still groping through uncertainty. Reports were incomplete, Japanese dispositions difficult to fix, and every hour dangerous. On the evening of September 28, the 79th Army's 6th Provisional Division occupied Yuelu Mountain west of Changsha. From that height officers and soldiers looked across the Xiang River toward the city. Changsha, for the first time, was in Japanese hands. The emotional force of that sight can only be imagined. Changsha had lived for years under threat. It had been defended, contested, prepared, and feared. The possibility of its loss had hovered over military planning and public consciousness alike. Now the danger had become fact. A city that had stood as an object of effort and anxiety was visibly occupied by the enemy. No single feeling could have governed the men who saw it. There must have been anger, shame, weariness, and dread—but also stubbornness. For in war a city seen in enemy hands is not always simply lost. Sometimes it is a summons.   Late that night Zhao Jiping, commander of the 6th Provisional Division, received a telegram from Xue Yue. He read it and then stood before the map for a long time. Days of anxiety began to lift. He was not alone in that reaction. Many Chinese generals involved in the campaign had felt that they were fighting a confused and chaotic battle. Japanese movements had been broad, rapid, and difficult to pin down. The Ninth War Zone had thrown numerous units into blocking actions, yet both well-regarded formations and weaker, improvised units had repeatedly failed to hold. After ten days of combat, Chinese losses were heavy. But Japanese forces too had been worn, stretched, and damaged. Only now, as the Japanese reached the apparent culmination of their advance, did the Ninth War Zone begin to recover rhythm. Chaos did not disappear, but it became more legible. The possibility of a more ordered counteroffensive emerged.   In the early hours of September 29, Zhao Jiping issued the order to force a crossing of the Xiang River and attack the enemy in Changsha. The preparations consumed the entire day. River crossings under combat conditions are among the most delicate operations in war. Boats must be assembled or found. Units must be organized into waves. Timing matters. Surprise matters. The location of landing points matters. The men themselves matter most of all, because they must sit exposed in fragile craft knowing that the real test will begin not in the middle of the river but at the far bank. Late that night the division crossed secretly by boat in six groups. The crossing itself went well enough. The river did not betray them. The groups made progress in darkness. Yet everyone involved understood that smooth movement on the water did not guarantee success. The crucial question was what waited at the landing points. It was expected that the troops going ashore at Daximen would be first to meet the Japanese. Once battle began there, the rest of the crossing accelerated.   Chinese soldiers landed, attacked fiercely, and drove the enemy back from the riverbank. The momentum of the assault mattered. In such moments hesitation on shore can doom an entire crossing, but aggression can seize a foothold before the defender fully stabilizes. By the time Chinese forces entered the city, dawn was breaking. Then came street fighting. Changsha had ceased to be an objective on a map. It became again what cities become in war: a place of corners, walls, alleys, debris, smoke, and sudden death. Fighting in a city strips away much of the abstraction through which campaigns are often remembered. Streets channel movement. Buildings become cover, obstacles, or traps. Distances shrink but danger multiplies. A few men behind masonry can delay many more. Noise magnifies confusion. The city itself seems to fragment into a hundred separate battlefields. For Changsha, the long season of anxious anticipation ended in direct flame.   Yet to understand the campaign only through the struggle at Changsha would be incomplete. While the city drew attention as the central prize, another set of operations was unfolding across Hunan and Hubei—less dramatic in appearance perhaps, but strategically significant. These were the actions of the 27th Army Group under Yang Sen. If the fighting around Changsha demonstrated the pressure of frontal battle, Yang Sen's operations illustrated another principle entirely: the stubborn, opportunistic use of weaker forces to harass, sting, and trouble a stronger enemy from behind. The 27th Army Group was composed largely of Sichuan troops. Their presence speaks to one of the larger political transformations of the war. Republican China had long been fractured by regional militarism. Armies had often owed stronger loyalty to commanders, provinces, or local power structures than to any unified national command. Yet the anti-Japanese war compelled a partial reordering of those loyalties. Many warlord forces, however imperfectly integrated, now turned their weapons outward under Nationalist command.   There were exceptions. Some men, like Han Fuqu, had preserved their own strength at the cost of military responsibility and lost both opportunity and honor in doing so. But in the main, especially among middle and lower-ranking officers and ordinary soldiers, the imperative of national survival overrode provincial identity. Men from distant regions marched and fought in terrains not their own because the war no longer permitted a narrow conception of interest. Yang Sen himself was an old warlord soldier, one of those figures formed in the fractured military world of earlier decades. By 1941 he was deputy commander of the Ninth War Zone and commander-in-chief of the 27th Army Group. Along the Hunan-Hubei-Jiangxi border he had long been cautious in his operations.   At the beginning of the northern Hunan battle, his troops proved unable to withstand the force of the Japanese offensive and retreated in disorder into mountains and forests. That fact should not be softened. They were pushed back. But retreat did not mean disappearance. This is where Yang Sen's role became important. Once the main Japanese force had advanced far ahead, the troops that had scattered began to reemerge. They knew the terrain. They knew the roads, villages, passes, and wooded approaches. If they could not defeat the Japanese in a grand collision, they could search for openings behind the advancing columns.   On September 20, as the Japanese main force drove into the heart of northern Hunan, Yang Sen led elements of the 4th, 58th, and 20th Armies in pursuit for an entire day. The main body of the 4th Army had already been badly beaten at the Xinqiang River line, and only the 60th Division, recently transferred from the 37th Army, remained relatively intact. That single fact sharply defined the weakness of his means. He was not pursuing with fresh and powerful forces prepared for a decisive encounter. He was pursuing with fragments, survivors, and such units as still retained some offensive potential. But the Japanese, intent on rapid advance southward, paid too little attention to what followed behind them. That was the opening Yang Sen needed.   On the morning of September 21, the 60th Division acted on information supplied by an old beggar. Such details often sound almost literary, but they remind us that war in China was never fought by armies alone. Villagers, refugees, peddlers, guides, boatmen, and the destitute all participated in the circulation of military knowledge. A beggar could see what a reconnaissance officer had missed. On the basis of that tip, the 60th Division launched a surprise attack on the supply depot of the Japanese 40th Division at Zhangjiayuan. Division Commander Dong Yu led the action.   The Chinese quickly overwhelmed the more than three hundred Japanese troops guarding the depot. Once they broke in, they discovered an astonishing quantity of matériel: shell boxes, ammunition, food, medicine, gasoline, explosives, protective clothing, telephone wire, body bags, stretchers, and more, all stacked beneath heavy canvas. For men accustomed to scarcity, it must have seemed almost unreal. Dong Yu, delighted, is remembered as exclaiming to his deputy commander, "It's practically a department store!" The line has a momentary comic brightness in the middle of war, and that is part of why it survives. But its deeper significance lies in what it reveals. A modern army advancing deep into hostile territory is sustained by accumulation—ammunition, fuel, wire, medicines, rations, transport materials. To seize such a depot is not merely to take objects. It is to grasp the hidden skeleton of movement. Dong Yu then issued a one-word order: "Move."   At once the whole division became a swarm of carriers. Officers and soldiers grabbed whatever they could and began hauling the captured supplies away. The scene must have been one of extraordinary improvised energy—riflemen transformed into laborers, war reduced for a moment to the brute physical act of lifting, dragging, and carrying. They moved like ants dismantling a storehouse. But there was too much to remove and too little time. Before even two regiments had completed the work, the Japanese returned in force. Enraged, they sent more than a dozen aircraft to bomb the troops carrying off the captured crates, while over a thousand infantrymen rushed in on the ground. Dong Yu immediately ordered the men to abandon what remained and destroy it. Amid deafening explosions, the 60th Division withdrew from Zhangjiayuan. The Japanese pursued hard, driving them back into the mountains before finally stopping. Measured purely in terms of territorial occupation, the action changed little. The Chinese did not hold the depot. They were forced back again. But judged in operational terms, the raid mattered. Supplies had been captured, destroyed, or disrupted. Japanese rear security had been embarrassed. Time and energy had been consumed in response. In a campaign where the Japanese were racing south and depending increasingly on stretched lines, such harassment was not trivial.   After September 23, Yang Sen expanded these efforts. He sent whole divisions to harass the Japanese rear while also dispatching battalions and companies to ambush supply columns and disrupt transport lines. This was not the kind of warfare that produces neat dramatic maps in conventional military histories. The actions were scattered, local, opportunistic, and often inconclusive. Yet precisely for that reason they can be misunderstood. Not every useful military action ends in the destruction of an enemy division. Sometimes its value lies in forcing a stronger opponent to spend attention where he had hoped to spend only momentum. These operations were costly and uncertain. Small Chinese units striking roads and depots risked encirclement or aerial punishment. Yet they possessed one advantage: they did not need to win a grand battle to matter. They needed only to make movement harder, supply more precarious, and the rear less secure.   On September 25, even after the 26th and 37th Armies had suffered defeat elsewhere, Yang Sen gathered the troops that still retained some offensive capacity and launched another attack. In these actions, the 90th Division captured Wukou; the 59th Division reached the north bank of the Miluo River; the 60th Division advanced to Donggang; and elements of the 58th Army controlled the Yuanba–Zheyangqiao highway line by the twenty-sixth. These gains were not the dramatic centerpiece of the campaign. But they formed part of the cumulative pressure on Japanese operations. Every road contested from the rear, every convoy threatened, every depot exposed, and every forced diversion of troops weakened the enemy's ability to convert tactical advance into stable success.   The battlefield was fluid enough that Yang Sen's headquarters itself had to keep moving—from the Miluo River northward to Pingjiang. Mobile headquarters in such conditions lived under constant uncertainty. Reports arrived late or contradictory. Rumors outran facts. The front could bend in unpredictable ways. A command post that seemed safely behind the line in the morning might by afternoon lie only a few kilometers from enemy forces. Years later Mao Jiuyin, who had then served as an operations staff officer under Yang Sen, recalled the old commander's outward behavior in those dangerous days. Yang Sen, Mao remembered, was always joking with the people around him and could still laugh and talk during battle. On one occasion he even joked with his bodyguard about putting chili oil in his tea. To younger staff officers, such behavior appeared almost absurd.   Yet they knew how dangerous their situation often was. Sometimes they were only a few kilometers from the main Japanese forces. There is more than anecdote in this memory. Old commanders often cultivated a style of ease under danger not because they felt no fear, but because they believed visible calm itself was part of command. Men take emotional bearings from those above them. A commander who panics spreads panic faster than any enemy breakthrough. Yang Sen was sixty years old during the Second Battle of Changsha, and he liked to remark that he was five years older than Chiang Kai-shek. Age had not removed him from the front. His function in the campaign was not to shatter the enemy in one decisive frontal blow. It was to persist, reappear, sting, and remain troublesome. The 27th Army Group followed the Japanese nearly all the way to the outskirts of Changsha.   They did not fight many large set-piece engagements. That was never their main value. But the Japanese could not ignore them. If Japanese units turned and tried to hit them directly, they tended to dissolve into the landscape. If the Japanese pushed on and ignored them, they reappeared to sabotage roads, hit supply lines, and create alarms in the rear. Even Japanese official histories later described them memorably. They called them "like a swarm of annoying flies." The phrase was meant as contempt. But as so often happens in war, an insult became an accurate description of effect. If these Chinese troops could not be tigers in formal battle, they could still become intolerable as flies. And under certain conditions—fatigue, heat, uncertainty, stretched supply, shaken morale—flies can become more oppressive than an enemy would like to admit.   When later generations look back on campaigns, they often search for a single explanatory image. But the fighting of September 1941 resists reduction to one symbol alone. What gives the campaign its force in memory is not one isolated episode, but the convergence of several pressures at once: a city under threat, a command trying to coordinate multiple fronts, exhausted reinforcements thrown directly into battle, Japanese forces advancing quickly but becoming increasingly vulnerable the farther they pushed, and Chinese troops in the rear refusing to disappear after defeat. Seen from Chongqing, the campaign was a matter of telegrams, maps, and the management of strategic risk. Seen from the front, it was a matter of thirst, mud, broken fieldworks, sudden bombing, exhausted marching, and the uncertainty of whether the next order meant reinforcement, retreat, or death. Seen from the Japanese side, it was initially an aggressive advance toward an important objective, but one increasingly troubled by stretched supply, difficult terrain, and the persistent reappearance of Chinese forces behind the line of movement.   At the same time, the campaign reveals a Chinese war effort that had become more resilient than in the earliest years of the conflict. The Japanese advance toward Changsha was dangerous and at moments appeared close to success. Chinese blocking forces suffered severe defeats. Units arrived exhausted and were hurled into action at once. Commanders lost men at devastating rates. Changsha itself briefly fell into enemy hands. And yet the city was not simply surrendered as an accomplished fact. Chinese forces regrouped. Orders were coordinated across war zones. Reinforcements marched at desperate speed. Counterattacks were mounted. Forces west of the Xiang prepared and crossed back into the city. Elsewhere, troops under Yang Sen gnawed at the Japanese rear and made advance more costly than a map of front lines alone might suggest. This combination of desperate frontal resistance and incessant rear harassment was one of the characteristic strengths of China's resistance in this stage of the war. China could not always match Japanese power in one concentrated blow. But it could absorb, delay, fragment, and trouble that power across space and time. That is why the struggle around Changsha in late September 1941 deserves to be remembered not merely as a sequence of engagements, but as a layered event in which tactical battle, morale, logistics, political endurance, and international context all converged.   I would like to take this time to remind you all that this podcast is only made possible through the efforts of Kings and Generals over at Youtube. Please go subscribe to Kings and Generals over at Youtube and to continue helping us produce this content please check out www.patreon.com/kingsandgenerals. If you are still hungry after that, give my personal channel a look over at The Pacific War Channel at Youtube, it would mean a lot to me. In late September 1941, Japan pushed deeper into China, but Chinese forces—supported gradually by international help—kept resisting. Changsha in Hunan became the central point of the conflict, seen as vital to strategic control in south-central China. Meanwhile, elsewhere in Hunan and Hubei, Yang Sen's 27th Army Group—often using smaller, opportunistic actions—reappeared behind Japanese lines to disrupt depots and convoys. Even when Chinese gains were temporary, the cumulative pressure delayed Japanese momentum.       

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Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to new home sales data with a focus on three stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to the UK preparing to usher in its 7th Prime Minister in 10 years. In Asia – a look ahead to Japan Marine Day. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Europe comes back into focus ahead of the ECB and UK data, with a spotlight also on Korea and the "AI trade". For Europe, we look ahead to the ECB rate decision, preview UK inflation and labour market data, and discuss UK politics. In the US, we debate Fed Chair Warsh's recent comments and the latest soft inflation prints. In Asia, the focus is on Korea, the latest monetary policy decision and the impact of the AI/tech sector on the economy. Chapters: Europe: 01:51; US: 07:38; Korea: 14:00; Rest of Asia: 22:18.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to new home sales data with a focus on three stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to the UK preparing to usher in its 7th Prime Minister in 10 years. In Asia – a look ahead to Japan Marine Day. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to new home sales data with a focus on three stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to the UK preparing to usher in its 7th Prime Minister in 10 years. In Asia – a look ahead to Japan Marine Day. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The current earnings season is seeing some bright spots, such as the Swiss luxury retailer Richemont and the US asset manager BlackRock. US producer prices came in below expectations, continuing to ease inflation concerns. In Asia, a rotation continues from this year's winners, Japan and South Korea, towards laggards such as Hong Kong, while South Korean regulators announced plans to address volatility linked to leveraged ETFs tied to SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. The US dollar stabilised after recent weakness and sterling rose to a one-year high. Meanwhile, Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, discusses why oil continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz despite renewed regional tensions, why European natural gas prices remain elevated, and why gold has been largely unmoved by softer inflation data.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (07:00) - Commodities update: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research (13:18) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host John Tucker take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI and PPI data, along with a focus on three stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to what lays ahead for the European Central Bank as it grapples with a uncertain inflation landscape. In Asia – a look ahead to South Korea’s Constitution Day. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Focus swings back to the Middle East, while we keep an eye out for 2 central bank meetings and key data ahead. In the US, we preview US CPI, retail sales and the Bank of Canada policy meeting. In Europe, we touch on UK GDP data, and discuss politics in the UK and France. In Asia, we share our forecasts for key monthly activity and Q2 GDP data in China, inflation in India, and GDP growth in Singapore.  Chapters: US: 02:01, Europe: 11:13, China: 16:11, Asia: 22:01.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host John Tucker take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI and PPI data, along with a focus on three stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to what lays ahead for the European Central Bank as it grapples with a uncertain inflation landscape. In Asia – a look ahead to South Korea’s Constitution Day. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host John Tucker take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI and PPI data, along with a focus on three stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to what lays ahead for the European Central Bank as it grapples with a uncertain inflation landscape. In Asia – a look ahead to South Korea’s Constitution Day. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Age-related macular degeneration, often abbreviated as AMD, is one of the leading causes of vision loss among older adults worldwide. In Asia, where populations are ageing rapidly, its impact is particularly profound. For many, the disease quietly erodes central vision, making everyday activities such as reading, driving, and recognising faces increasingly difficult. Against this backdrop, the Translational Asian Age-related Macular Degeneration Programme, or TAAP for short, has emerged as a bold and ambitious effort to confront the disease head-on. Now in its second phase, TAAP-2 represents a significant evolution in both scientific scope and clinical ambition.

Softer inflation data supported sentiment in the eurozone, while in the US, comments by Fed chair Kevin Warsh on inflation and a weaker-than-expected labour market report lifted equities last week. Gold rose and the USD weakened. Brent crude is holding near USD 72 despite OPEC+ announcing an output increase over the weekend. In Asia, attention is on SK Hynix ahead of its USD 29 billion US listing, which could become the largest-ever foreign IPO. SpaceX is also in focus as the expiry of the analyst quiet period is expected to trigger a wave of research reports and price targets. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, discusses, among other topics, why US equity market behaviour may be more reminiscent of 1998 than 2000.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:51) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:37) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis Research (10:09) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Il 2 luglio racconta una storia in due velocità: l'Europa festeggia mentre i chip globali crollano. Capire perché questi movimenti si contraddicono è esattamente il lavoro che un investitore retail deve fare prima di toccare il portafoglio.Milano ha chiuso a +1,6% sopra quota 52.000 punti, trascinata da banche e difesa. Parigi +1,65%, Francoforte +2%, Londra +1,77%. Il carburante? I dati sul lavoro USA: solo 57.000 nuovi posti e disoccupazione al 4,2%, abbastanza per raffreddare le attese di nuovi rialzi Fed e dare fiato alle azioni europee.Sul fronte opposto, il Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ha perso il 6,3% in una sola seduta. Micron -10,6%, Corning -13,6%. In Asia il Kospi coreano cedeva il 4,48%, con SK Hynix e Samsung in forte correzione. Chi detiene ETF tematici su AI o semiconduttori asiatici ha sentito l'impatto direttamente. Il VIX resta a 16,9: la volatilità sale ma non segnala panico strutturato.Analizza questi movimenti con metodo su TraDetector Cafe. Seguici su Spotify e Apple Podcasts, approfondisci su tradetector.com.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the U.S June jobs report with a focus on three stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to this year’s Wimbledon tournament. In Asia – a look ahead to key readings on growth and inflation for Vietnam's economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the U.S June jobs report with a focus on three stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to this year’s Wimbledon tournament. In Asia – a look ahead to key readings on growth and inflation for Vietnam's economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the U.S June jobs report with a focus on three stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to this year’s Wimbledon tournament. In Asia – a look ahead to key readings on growth and inflation for Vietnam's economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Markets reacted cautiously after the US granted Iran a temporary 60‑day licence to sell oil in USD. Euro area consumer confidence remained weak in June, and pressure on Hermès weighed on luxury stocks. In the UK, Sir Keir Starmer's resignation adds to a decade of political instability, but markets stayed calm. ECB president Christine Lagarde said that the central bank doesn't need to react more forcefully to the fallout from the Middle East conflict. In US equities, investors rotated out of large tech stocks into small caps. In Asia, speculation about USD/JPY intervention grew after talks between Japanese and US officials. Regional equities declined. Damien Ng, Next Generation Research, joins the podcast to talk about what strong dealmaking says about the healthcare sector.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:50) - Dealmaking in the healthcare sector: Damien Ng, Next Generation Research (11:28) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the next U.S PCE and GDP data, along with a focus on 3 stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to London Climate Action Week. In Asia – a look ahead to Australia CPI data. - Stuart Paul, US Economist with Bloomberg Economics, previews U.S PCE and GDP data.- Avalon Pernell, Bloomberg Equities Reporter, focuses on 3 stocks for the week ahead.- Joe Wertz, Bloomberg Weather and Climate Reporter, to preview London Climate Action Week.- Olivia Rudgard, Bloomberg Green reporter, to preview London Climate Action Week.- James McIntyre- Bloomberg Economist Covering Australia and New Zealand, previews Australia CPI data.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Fed Chair Warsh moved markets meaningfully – we discuss how to think about US monetary policy from here. Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Chair caused a big reaction in markets; we outline what to expect from US monetary policy from here. In Europe, we look at the increasing divergence in our ECB and Bank of England rate calls. In Asia, we discuss Bank Indonesia's recent hikes and the upcoming Bank of Thailand decision. Chapters: Rates Special: 01:53, US: 08:18, EMEA: 20:29, Asia: 24:18.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the next U.S PCE and GDP data, along with a focus on 3 stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to London Climate Action Week. In Asia – a look ahead to Australia CPI data. - Stuart Paul, US Economist with Bloomberg Economics, previews U.S PCE and GDP data.- Avalon Pernell, Bloomberg Equities Reporter, focuses on 3 stocks for the week ahead.- Joe Wertz, Bloomberg Weather and Climate Reporter, to preview London Climate Action Week.- Olivia Rudgard, Bloomberg Green reporter, to preview London Climate Action Week.- James McIntyre- Bloomberg Economist Covering Australia and New Zealand, previews Australia CPI data.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Il petrolio crolla di oltre il 5% dopo l'annuncio dell'accordo tra Stati Uniti e Iran, con il Brent tornato sotto gli 83 dollari al barile sui livelli precedenti all'escalation militare. Tuttavia gli analisti invitano alla prudenza: la riapertura dello Stretto di Hormuz sarà graduale e il ritorno alla normalità potrebbe richiedere settimane o mesi. Circa 500 navi restano ancora bloccate nel Golfo Persico e pesano le incognite legate a sicurezza, assicurazioni e capacità produttiva dei paesi esportatori. Ne parliamo con Sissi Bellomo, Il Sole 24 Ore e con Stefano Messina, Presidente Assarmatori.Oro e auto spingono l'export: +8,8% ad aprileAd aprile l'export italiano cresce dell'8,8% su base annua grazie soprattutto all'oro diretto in Svizzera, alle automobili e all'elettronica. Nei primi quattro mesi dell'anno le esportazioni aumentano del 3,2%, mentre continuano a distinguersi mercati come Stati Uniti, Cina, India e Svizzera. Intanto da Genova, alla convention mondiale di Assocamerestero, emerge un quadro di forte resilienza del Made in Italy: dopo il record di 643 miliardi nel 2025, le esportazioni potrebbero superare i 660 miliardi nel 2026 nonostante guerre, tensioni geopolitiche e dazi. Interviene Matteo Zoppas, Presidente ICE.Le Borse festeggiano l'accordo Usa-Iran, a Milano nuovo recordLe Borse globali accolgono con entusiasmo l'intesa tra Stati Uniti e Iran. In Asia corre soprattutto la Corea del Sud, mentre in Europa Piazza Affari aggiorna ancora una volta i massimi storici superando per la prima volta quota 52 mila punti. A sostenere i mercati è soprattutto il crollo dei prezzi di petrolio e gas, che alimenta le speranze di un rallentamento dell'inflazione e di politiche monetarie meno restrittive. L'attenzione si sposta ora sulle riunioni di Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan e Bank of England. Andiamo dietro la notizia con Alessandro Plateroti, Direttore Editoriale UCapital.com

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the next FOMC decision, along with a focus on 3 stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to a high stakes UK election and Bank of England decision. In Asia – a look ahead to a monetary policy decision from the Bank of Japan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the next FOMC decision, along with a focus on 3 stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to a high stakes UK election and Bank of England decision. In Asia – a look ahead to a monetary policy decision from the Bank of Japan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Markets saw a cautious session yesterday, as investors remained on edge amid ongoing Middle East uncertainty, with both European and US equities ending broadly lower. Overnight, tensions escalated sharply, with US strikes on Iran followed by retaliatory actions across the Gulf, placing further strain on an already fragile ceasefire. Despite these developments, oil prices remained relatively contained. Macro data painted a mixed but broadly stable picture, with solid US housing demand, a sharply narrowing trade deficit, and modest growth signals from Europe. In Asia, rising producer prices in China and Japan highlighted ongoing cost pressures, keeping central banks in focus. Today, we were joined by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, who discussed the revival of the IPO market and what investors should watch for in the months ahead.(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:02) - The great IPO comeback: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (14:15) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI and PPI data, along with a focus on 3 stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to London tech week. In Asia – a look ahead to China PPI and CPI data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI and PPI data, along with a focus on 3 stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to London tech week. In Asia – a look ahead to China PPI and CPI data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Markets delivered a mixed session yesterday, driven by geopolitical tensions, a sharp semiconductor sell-off following Broadcom's disappointing results, and steady macro data from Switzerland and the US. Oil remained driven by developments in the Middle East, while gold fluctuated alongside moves in the dollar and bond yields. European equities closed higher despite lingering uncertainty, while the US showed a clear divergence: the Dow reached a record high, supported by defensive stocks, as tech weakness weighed on the Nasdaq. In Asia, the rotation out of tech continued, pressuring chip-heavy markets such as South Korea and Japan, with broader sentiment remaining cautious. Today, we were joined by David Kohl, Chief Economist, who shared insights on next week's ECB meeting.(00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:59) - ECB preview: David Kohl, Chief Economist (13:16) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the May jobs report, along with a focus on three stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to what comes next in the Ukraine war following fresh EU funds to Ukraine. In Asia – a look ahead to Australia GDP data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, geopolitical tensions may be cooling but the fallout is rising with growth, inflation and central bank reactions evolving rapidly. We look ahead to the US labour market data and the ongoing hawkish shift in Fed communications. In Asia, we preview the RBI's next meeting and look ahead at inflation data around the region. In Europe, we discuss what factors – such as inflation expectations – could shift our views on the ECB and BoE. Chapters: US: 2:27; Asia: 11:01; Europe: 17:09;

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the May jobs report, along with a focus on three stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to what comes next in the Ukraine war following fresh EU funds to Ukraine. In Asia – a look ahead to Australia GDP data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S PCE and personal spending data, along with a focus on three stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to the Reykjavík Economic Conference in Iceland. In Asia – a look ahead to Australia CPI data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, after a sharp rise in global bond yields, we await key inflation data in the US and Euro area, and discuss the fallout in Asia. We preview US core PCE and Euro area inflation, discuss a change in our Fed forecasts, and update on UK politics. In Asia, we preview decisions by the BOK and RBNZ, as well as core inflation in Singapore. And, in a special segment, Albert Leung, our Head of Asia rates strategy, discusses rising global bond yields and opportunities in Asia. Chapters: US: 2:10; London: 11:02, Asia: 16:50; Special Market Segment: 23:51

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S PCE and personal spending data, along with a focus on three stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to the Reykjavík Economic Conference in Iceland. In Asia – a look ahead to Australia CPI data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host John Tucker take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to earnings from Nvidia and a focus on three stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to earnings from Europe’s largest low-cost airlines. In Asia – a look ahead to Japan GDP data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host John Tucker take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to earnings from Nvidia and a focus on three stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to earnings from Europe’s largest low-cost airlines. In Asia – a look ahead to Japan GDP data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI, PPI, and Retail sales data, along with a focus on 3 stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to the annual Cannes film festival. In Asia – a look ahead to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's Trip to Japan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI, PPI, and Retail sales data, along with a focus on 3 stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to the annual Cannes film festival. In Asia – a look ahead to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's Trip to Japan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Markets remained on edge as ongoing uncertainty around a potential US–Iran agreement drove a clear risk‑off tone. European equities moved broadly lower, while US indices pulled back after briefly touching record highs, weighed down by weakness in technology and semiconductors. Oil prices proved volatile but ultimately rebounded, with both Brent and WTI holding elevated levels, while gold edged higher. In fixed income, US yields ticked up as investors reassessed inflation risks linked to energy markets. Central banks painted a mixed picture, with Norway surprising to the upside on rates, while Sweden held steady. In Asia, markets were mostly weaker, though South Korea's strong outperformance continued. Today we were joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, who shared the latest insights on currencies and metals, discussing gold, the ongoing US dollar weakness, and the yen intervention.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content (07:01) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (10:53) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

President Trump pauses the ‘Project Freedom' operation after revealing that progress has been achieved on a potential deal with Tehran to end the conflict. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says reopening the Strait of Hormuz is paramount, not military action. Equity markets respond positively to the news. In Asia, south Korea's KOSPI rallies by more than 7 per cent with A.I. and chips stocks leading the way. Novo Nordisk is up ahead of the market open and hikes its guidance. The Danish pharma giant's Wegovy weight-loss pill sales are up by more than DKK1bn. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the April jobs report in the U.S and a focus on 3 stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to the UK’s Midterm local elections. In Asia – a look ahead to the next RBA Decision. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the April jobs report in the U.S and a focus on 3 stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to the UK’s Midterm local elections. In Asia – a look ahead to the next RBA Decision. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – we preview the Federal Reserve's rate decision and big tech earnings In the UK – we look ahead to the Bank of England's upcoming rate decision In Asia – we discuss the Golden Week holiday in Japan See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, we preview decisions from the Fed, ECB, and BOE, but expect no fireworks. In Asia, the BOJ may sound hawkish but BOT is likely dovish. In a special segment, our head of Global Macro Research, Rob Subbaraman, argues that the bark of central banks will be bigger than their bite. Chapters: US: 2:10; Europe: 8:37; Japan: 15:48; Asia: 20:28; Central Banks Special Segment: 22:48

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – we preview the Federal Reserve's rate decision and big tech earnings In the UK – we look ahead to the Bank of England's upcoming rate decision In Asia – we discuss the Golden Week holiday in Japan See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – we preview Tesla earnings and Kevin Warsh's trip to Capitol Hill In the UK – we look ahead to first quarter European earnings amidst broader headwinds In Asia – how the war in Iran is impacting Japanese inflation. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter concludes the two-part discussion with chief regional economists Michael Gapen, Jens Eisenschmidt and Chetan Ahya on the second order effects of the energy shock from tensions in the Middle East.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts in the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And once again, I am joined by Morgan Stanley's chief regional economists: Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist, Chetan Ahya, the Chief Asia Economist, and Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist. Yesterday we focused on the immediate impact of the Iran conflict, how the energy shock is feeding through into inflation, and, as a result, shaping central bank decisions across the U.S., Europe, and Asia.Today we're going to go a level deeper and talk about some structural issues in the global economy. It's Wednesday, April 15th at 10am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 3pm in London. Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: So, even as we're waiting to see whether or not oil prices stabilize following a temporary ceasefire – or not – the broader effects are still working their way through the global economy. Labor markets, supply chains, and then, of course, back to the more longer-term structural themes like AI driven growth. So, the question, I think, has to be: what does this shock mean, if anything, for the next phase of global growth? And does it reshape it? Does it change it, or do we just wait for things to go through? Mike, let me come to you first. One risk that we've been focusing on is whether this kind of shock really changes some of the structural positives in the U.S. economy. The U.S. has been, I would say, outperforming in lots of ways. We've had this AI driven CapEx cycle. We've had rising productivity; we've had strong consumer spending. What are you seeing in the data about those more structural trends? Michael Gapen: I think what we're seeing in the data right now is evidence that oil is not disrupting the positive structural trends in the U.S. I think AI CapEx spending is largely orthogonal to what we've seen so far. It doesn't mean that we can't see negative effects, particularly if oil rises to say $150 a barrel or more where we think you might see significant demand destruction. But with oil where it is right now, I would say the evidence is it will probably weigh on consumption. Gasoline prices are higher. It's going to squeeze lower- and middle-income households that way. But so far, the labor market appears to be holding up. And business spending around CapEx seems to be holding up. And the productivity story remains in place. So right now, I'd say this is more of a break on consumer spending, maybe a modest headwind. But not an outright hard stop. And I think those positive structural elements and AI-related CapEx spending are going to stay with us in 2026. Seth Carpenter: I hear in your answer part of what for me is always the most uncomfortable part of these conversations. Where I have to come back to say, ‘But of course it depends on how things evolve…' Michael Gapen: Of course, It depends… Seth Carpenter: So, then let me push you on AI specifically. You and your team have published a few pieces recently about AI. How AI is affecting the labor market, and maybe some hints as to how AI is likely to affect the labor market. So how should we think about that? Michael Gapen: While it's still too early, I think, to draw firm conclusions, Seth, we do find that there's some evidence that AI is pushing unemployment rates higher in specific occupations that are exposed to task replacement. So, what we did do is we broke down the data by occupation, and it's clear that the unemployment rate has been rising. But that's just a general feature of the economy at this point in time. Over the last 18 to 24 months, the unemployment rate has gone higher. So, what we did is a second-round effort at kind of controlling for cyclicality. And when you control for those, we do find evidence that the unemployment rate for occupations that have high exposure to AI is higher than you would expect, given the cyclical performance of the economy. But the effect is really small. It's maybe about 1/10th on the unemployment rate. So, I don't want to be too Pollyannish and say, ‘Oh, there's no evidence here that AI is disrupting the labor market.' We'd say that there is some evidence there. But, so far, it's mild and it's modest. It's a little more micro than it is macro. So, we'll see how this evolves. But that would be our initial conclusion so far. Seth Carpenter: So, Mike, that's super helpful. When I think about the AI investment cycle, though, I have to come back to Asia because a lot of the AI supply chain is there in Asia, especially with semiconductors and others. But there's lots of supply chain around the world. So, Chetan, if I think about different supply chains, different industries in Asia that are at risk, potentially being disrupted by the current shock, where do you focus? And then take a step further and tell me if you see a risk that there's a structural dislocation going on here in any of these sectors? Chetan Ahya: So, Seth, there are two relevant points here from Asia supply chain perspective, particularly the tech sector. Number one, there are some concerns on the supply side issues in the context of helium and sulfur. But from what we see as of today, these companies who need that helium and sulfur are able to pay up. As you would appreciate, this is a sector which is, you know, making a lot of money for those economies, i.e. Korea and Taiwan. And they are able to bid up on gas prices, sulfur, and helium, and still managing their production lines. So, we don't see a supply constraint as of now for their production, but there will be an implication for them if you do see damage on U.S. growth, which is quite meaningful. At the end of the day, these sectors are deep cyclical sectors. But if you do see that, you know, scenario of $150 of oil price and it brings global economy to near recession, then there will be implication for these companies and sectors in Asia as well. Seth Carpenter: All right, so Jens, let me bring it to you then. Because when I think about Europe, I think about a couple things. One, kind of, the intersection of energy vulnerability now markets pricing in tighter policy, industrial exposure, which has been going on for a long time. Takes us back in lots of ways to the energy price shock that started in 2021 and went through all of 2022, where we did see, I think, a hit to European manufacturing that had kind of a long tail to it. So, when you think about the current situation, what do you think this shock means for the medium term? How much of an effect do you think this energy price shock could have on the European economy going out a couple of years?Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, I mean, just listening to you guys, I mean, really makes me a little bit more depressed still, in terms of being European economist here. Because I mean, it seems America, well, they have the same energy shock, but at least they have AI. In Asia while they have the same energy shock, but at least they have something to deliver into AI. Europe just has the shock, right? So, in some sense there could be one summary.No, but I mean, going back to the comparison and the question. Of course, we have downgraded, as I said yesterday, our growth outlook. And that's predominantly on simply inflation high that is not great for consumption. Consumption is 50 percent of GDP. So, you want to take down a little bit your forecast and your optimism. And then – to your point – where does this leave Europe? We do have already less energy intense manufacturing than before. So, not sure if you'll see much more, or much further downward pressure on this sector. But, of course, it is an uphill battle from here to get back. To get this industrial renaissance back that to some extent the Germans at least are hoping for. In our growth outlook and our growth revisions, we looked into differentiated impacts. And, of course, one of these impacts is through trade. And again, the backdrop here probably globally is not great for trade – as at least you would not want to be super optimistic in that current backdrop. And that will hurt again Europe. So, to your question, we have an outlook, which is still positive growth; but much more muted than say, a month ago or two. Seth Carpenter: Can I push you then a little bit and say that this shock to the European economy then isn't just a cyclical hit. There's probably an additional sort of structural headwind that might get introduced on the heels of, say, the earlier 2021-2022 energy shock? Jens Eisenschmidt: I would say it's the same thing. It's just a reminder that this is still there, right? Europe needs to, kind of, find ways… I think it's best exemplified by the German economy, who was exporting to the rest of the world. And now it looks like as if China has taken over that role. And so, you have to find a new business model, simply speaking, because the ice cream shop next door is just better than you. And so, this is something, what the European economy has just gotten another reminder, and it came through energy, in particular. So, this is where the similarities are. So that was a [20]22 shock. In the meantime, oil prices had nicely retraced, gas prices had nicely retraced. We have new contracts with different suppliers. But still, I mean, the high energy prices expose us here. Because we are already a continent with very high electricity prices, which are derived from the fossil fuels. And so that is not going to end. And so, the continent really urgently has to address that weakness, that structural weakness. And so yeah, in that sense it's structural. Seth Carpenter: Let me pull this together for maybe a final question for each of you. And I'd love it if you could just answer really quickly. Quick fire answers here. We've got a baseline scenario where energy prices are high. Oil is back up a little bit over $100 a barrel. But I think we, and most of the market, are assuming oil prices gradually come down later this year. Mike, what's the prognosis for the U.S. economy? If instead oil prices skyrocket, say they go through $150 a barrel for a couple of months in a row. Michael Gapen: So, the risk there, Seth, is that you do get significant demand destruction. It's not just a gasoline price story for the consumer. It's about weak asset markets. It's about a pullback in hiring. So, at $150 a barrel or more, I would be afraid about recession risk in the U.S. The U.S. is well positioned to handle an oil price shock, but it also has limits. Seth Carpenter: Got it. Jens, suppose instead we had a rapid de-escalation and all of a sudden in the next two months, oil prices are backed down to say $80 a barrel or so. How much of the damage that you envision for the European economy is already baked in the cake? And how much of it goes away if oil prices retrace over the next two months? Jens Eisenschmidt: I would say a lot for this year is baked in the cake to use your words. While next year, we would be basically back to where we had been before in numbers. 1.2 instead of the 0.9 we are seeing currently. And importantly, the ECB could stay. It would not have to hike into that crisis. Seth Carpenter: So, Chetan, , let me come back to you then to wrap up this whole conversation. We've talked about energy mostly in terms of price, but as we've discussed there is the quantity side of things. So, do you think there's a non-linearity? Is there something that's going to just fundamentally change if instead of the rationing being done by price, we get to a point where there's just simply no supply coming to Asia? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, I think that's a very real risk, and that's particularly more important for Asia because there's a lot of dependence on Middle East, and both gas and oil coming in through the Strait of Hormuz. So yeah, I think there is a risk of non-linearity on Asia's growth dynamics if you see supply shortages. Seth Carpenter: Super helpful. I think that's a great place to leave it. What started as a geopolitical shock is now evolving into something broader, touching everything from inflation, interest rates, possibly productivity and technology investment, and clearly global trade. So, Mike, Chetan, Jens, thank you all for coming to help connect these dots. And to the listener, thank you for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen to podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

- Greg Johnson, TGM Total Grain Marketing- How Delayed Fertilizer Shipments Threaten 2027 Yields- Drew Lerner, World Weather IncThe April 15, 2026, commodity markets closed with marginal gains in corn, soybeans, and wheat futures amidst widespread U.S. planting delays. Frequent precipitation across the Midwest has stalled fieldwork, though regions such as southern Illinois have advanced, planting up to half of their soybean crop. Market behavior remains subdued; producers are deferring new crop sales due to stagnant mid-range prices, relying heavily on domestic crush capacity while waiting for necessary improvements in global export and domestic livestock demand.Simultaneously, severe logistical bottlenecks in the Persian Gulf threaten the global fertilizer supply chain following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The region, responsible for 18% of global fertilizer exports, currently holds over 40 laden vessels unable to exit. This blockage has triggered an immediate spike in nitrogen and phosphate prices and forced major global producers, including Morocco, China, and Russia, to limit their own exports to protect domestic markets. The resulting scarcity is expected to constrain global agricultural yields through the 2027 harvest.Global weather conditions further complicate the agricultural production outlook. In the U.S., the Hard Red Winter Wheat crop in the High Plains faces detrimental impacts from persistent drought and extreme temperature volatility, including impending freezes, while the Corn Belt remains oversaturated by ongoing storms. Conversely, favorable spring conditions are reported across Europe and the Black Sea regions. In Asia, India's winter harvest benefits from dry weather, with the upcoming monsoon expected to start strong despite a developing El Niño, while China's rapeseed crop faces severe quality degradation from excessive moisture. ★ Support this podcast ★

Looking 4 Healing Radio with Dr. Angelina Farella – Mushrooms are extremely high in antioxidants, which aid in reducing inflammation and oxidative stress. Traditional uses are for immune and digestive support due to strong prebiotic microbiome support. In Asia, they are used in cancer support therapies because polysaccharopeptides are abundant in mushrooms. They also have antimicrobial...

Looking 4 Healing Radio with Dr. Angelina Farella – Mushrooms are extremely high in antioxidants, which aid in reducing inflammation and oxidative stress. Traditional uses are for immune and digestive support due to strong prebiotic microbiome support. In Asia, they are used in cancer support therapies because polysaccharopeptides are abundant in mushrooms. They also have antimicrobial...