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Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to earnings from Walt Disney and Uber. In the UK – a look ahead to earnings from BP. In Asia – a look at ahead to how US smartphone production will be impacted by Apple’s shift towards India, along with an outlook for China property. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Following the 15% tariff announced for Europe, further tariff rate announcements for India and South Korea have followed. For global markets, our focus remains on tariff announcements, key macro data and central banks. In this episode, we discuss these developments, as well as the Bank of England policy meeting, where a rate cut is widely expected. In Asia, the focus is on a policy meeting in India, inflation and key earnings data in Japan. Chapters: (US: 01:41, EMEA: 07:34, Asia: 12:49).

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to earnings from Walt Disney and Uber. In the UK – a look ahead to earnings from BP. In Asia – a look at ahead to how US smartphone production will be impacted by Apple’s shift towards India, along with an outlook for China property. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to a monetary policy decision from the Fed and earnings from some of the “Magnificent Seven” tech companies. In the UK – a look at President Trump’s trip to Scotland. In Asia – a look at ahead to China PMI data and a conversation on Asia tech investing. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to a monetary policy decision from the Fed and earnings from some of the “Magnificent Seven” tech companies. In the UK – a look at President Trump’s trip to Scotland. In Asia – a look at ahead to China PMI data and a conversation on Asia tech investing. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Following a number of trade deals announced in the last week, financial markets seem to be taking the news in a positive manner with equity markets continuing to edge higher and bond yields remaining in fairly narrow ranges. However, one bond market that has stood out is Germany where yields have jumped following hawkish ECB commentary after their July rate meeting, which we discuss in this episode alongside the potential EU-US trade deal. We also discuss the US implications of trade deals, preview the FOMC decision and US labour market data, both of which are due next week. In Asia, we focus on trade developments in India and ASEAN, the Japan upper house election, and the US-Japan trade deal. Chapters: US: 01:54, EMEA: 10:29, Asia: 15:05,  Japan: 22:13.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to a monetary policy decision from the Fed and earnings from some of the “Magnificent Seven” tech companies. In the UK – a look at President Trump’s trip to Scotland. In Asia – a look at ahead to China PMI data and a conversation on Asia tech investing. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to housing data and earnings from Tesla. In the UK – a look ahead to the next ECB monetary policy decision. In Asia – a look at ahead to Japan’s upper house election. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to housing data and earnings from Tesla. In the UK – a look ahead to the next ECB monetary policy decision. In Asia – a look at ahead to Japan’s upper house election. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Global stock markets experienced a positive day yesterday, bolstered by impressive earnings reports – including those from ABB – and favourable macroeconomic data from the US. The latter indicated a resilient retail sector, underpinned by a strong US consumer. As a result, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both closed at record highs. In Asia, however, the outlook is more mixed, with attention centred on Japan ahead of its upper house elections this weekend. On the commodities front, oil prices remain steady, whereas gold has edged down slightly this morning. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and the US dollar have both appreciated. We are joined today by Bence Boldvai from FX/PM Solutions, who discusses the latest developments in currencies and metals.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (07:26) - FX and metals: Bence Boldvai, FX/PM Solutions (11:07) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to housing data and earnings from Tesla. In the UK – a look ahead to the next ECB monetary policy decision. In Asia – a look at ahead to Japan’s upper house election. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI and PPI data, along with Netflix earnings. In the UK – a look ahead to a speech from UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves. In Asia – a look at several key data points for the Japanese economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI and PPI data, along with Netflix earnings. In the UK – a look ahead to a speech from UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves. In Asia – a look at several key data points for the Japanese economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI and PPI data, along with Netflix earnings. In the UK – a look ahead to a speech from UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves. In Asia – a look at several key data points for the Japanese economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In Asia, the rapid adoption of low-code/no-code (LCNC) platforms are transforming digital innovation by enabling faster application development amid developer shortages and rising competition. However, this acceleration introduces significant security risks, including inadequate access controls, unmanaged integrations, and shadow IT, which can bypass traditional compliance protocols. AI and automation are increasingly integrated into LCNC tools, enhancing development speed and intelligence but also complicating security oversight. For CIOs in Asia, it is critical to proactively embed security early in the LCNC development lifecycle, maintain visibility into decentralized development efforts, and balance governance with innovation to mitigate risks without stifling agility. Failure to address these risks can expose organizations to data breaches and compliance failures, undermining digital transformation efforts in 2025/2026.In this PodChats for FutureCIO, we are joined by Jason Merrick, senior vice president of product, Tenable, to talk about critical questions CIOs for business leaders need to address when adopting low code/no code.1.       Define what low-code/no-code means/is to users and to the application development team.2.       Current State of Adoption: What is the current landscape of low-code/no-code adoption in Asia, and what trends are emerging?3.       Security and Compliance: How do we ensure that LCNC platforms comply with relevant data protection and regulatory standards, and what access controls are in place to secure these environments?4.       Embedding Security: How can security be integrated early in the LCNC development lifecycle to mitigate potential risks?5.       Inventory Management: What processes should be established to maintain an up-to-date inventory of all LCNC applications and integrations, ensuring visibility and governance?6.       Citizen Development Oversight: What visibility and monitoring tools are implemented to oversee decentralized citizen development and manage risks associated with shadow IT?7.       Training and Incident Response: What training and support are provided to citizen developers on secure practices, and what incident response plans exist for vulnerabilities or breaches related to LCNC applications?8.       Final advice: With technologies like AI, agentic AI, among other things, what is your advice for business leaders and the heads of the development teams as it relates to LCNC adoption in 2025/2026?

The UK saw another round of combined sterling and gilt weakness, a pattern which is becoming worryingly familiar. Politics elsewhere seemed to have run a bit more smoothly with the US budget bill passing through the Senate and House, teeing up some degree of fiscal expansion for the year ahead. Tariffs remain on the agenda for the week ahead, as we approach the 9 July deadline. In Asia, we focus on the Bank of Korea's likely hawkishness relative to potential rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Chapters: (US: 02:14, Asia: 08:53, Australia & New Zealand: 13:53, EMEA: 16:33).

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the June jobs report and commodities outlook. In the UK – a look ahead to the annual summer economic conference in the Southern French city of Aix. In Asia – a look at relations between China and Iran. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tensions in the Middle East have eased but we enter the month of July with other flashpoints to watch. In the US, all eyes on labor market data, the Fed, and prospects of passing the One Big Beautiful bill. CPI data across Europe and the ECB forum in Sintra are on tap, while Germany approved a big budget. In Asia, we expect still-benign inflation and discuss trade deal prospects and our change in RBA forecast. Chapters: US (02:00), Europe (08:58), Asia (14:35). 

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the June jobs report and commodities outlook. In the UK – a look ahead to the annual summer economic conference in the Southern French city of Aix. In Asia – a look at relations between China and Iran. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S GDP and personal spending data and Nike earnings. In the UK – a look ahead to TheCityUK's annual conference. In Asia – a look ahead to Bloomberg’s China economic survey.-----------------------------------------------------------------Guests:-Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent, to preview next week's U.S GDP/personal spending data.- Poonam Goyal, Senior U.S. E-Commerce and Retail Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, to preview Nike earnings. -Leo Kehnscherper, Bloomberg European Asset Management Reporter, looks ahead to TheCityUK's annual conference. -Julian Harris, UK Economics Editor, looks ahead to TheCityUK's annual conference. - Eric Zhu, China Economist for Bloomberg Economics, discusses Bloomberg’s China Economic Survey. -Karishma Vaswani, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist in Singapore, discusses her column: “US Rethink on Australia Subs Is China’s Win.” See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Market dynamics in the last week have been dominated by developments in the Middle East, where the ongoing military action between Israel and Iran continues to have a notable impact on investor risk sentiment and oil prices. In the US and Europe, we dissect a week of central bank decisions, including the Fed and the Bank of England. In Asia we look at how trade is evolving and discuss local political developments in Thailand. Chapters: US (01:42), Europe (10:59), Asia (16:01). 

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S GDP and personal spending data and Nike earnings. In the UK – a look ahead to TheCityUK's annual conference. In Asia – a look ahead to Bloomberg’s China economic survey.-----------------------------------------------------------------Guests:-Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent, to preview next week's U.S GDP/personal spending data.- Poonam Goyal, Senior U.S. E-Commerce and Retail Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, to preview Nike earnings. -Leo Kehnscherper, Bloomberg European Asset Management Reporter, looks ahead to TheCityUK's annual conference. -Julian Harris, UK Economics Editor, looks ahead to TheCityUK's annual conference. - Eric Zhu, China Economist for Bloomberg Economics, discusses Bloomberg’s China Economic Survey. -Karishma Vaswani, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist in Singapore, discusses her column: “US Rethink on Australia Subs Is China’s Win.” See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to next week’s Fed decision. In the UK – a look ahead to next week’s Bank of England decision. In Asia – a look ahead to next week's Bank of Japan decision. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to next week’s Fed decision. In the UK – a look ahead to next week’s Bank of England decision. In Asia – a look ahead to next week's Bank of Japan decision. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bongani Bingwa speaks with Adam Gilchrist for a global snapshot of the stories making headlines. Today, the world says goodbye to a music legend as Brian Wilson, one of pop’s greatest icons, passes away leaving a timeless legacy. In Asia, there’s a diplomatic shift as South Korea ends its so-called "Speaker War," switching off the loudspeaker propaganda along the border with North Korea in a rare move toward calm. And beneath the waves, excitement surges in Colombia as newly released undersea images of long-lost treasure spark dreams of gold, history, and national pride. It's a mix of reflection, resolution, and rediscovery on this edition of World View. 702 Breakfast with Bongani Bingwa is broadcast on 702, a Johannesburg based talk radio station. Bongani makes sense of the news, interviews the key newsmakers of the day, and holds those in power to account on your behalf. The team bring you all you need to know to start your day Thank you for listening to a podcast from 702 Breakfast with Bongani Bingwa Listen live on Primedia+ weekdays from 06:00 and 09:00 (SA Time) to Breakfast with Bongani Bingwa broadcast on 702: https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj For more from the show go to https://buff.ly/36edSLV or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/zEcM35T Subscribe to the 702 Daily and Weekly Newsletters https://buff.ly/v5mfetc Follow us on social media: 702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/Radio702 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bongani Bingwa speaks with Adam Gilchrist for a global snapshot of the stories making headlines. Today, the world says goodbye to a music legend as Brian Wilson, one of pop’s greatest icons, passes away leaving a timeless legacy. In Asia, there’s a diplomatic shift as South Korea ends its so-called "Speaker War," switching off the loudspeaker propaganda along the border with North Korea in a rare move toward calm. And beneath the waves, excitement surges in Colombia as newly released undersea images of long-lost treasure spark dreams of gold, history, and national pride. It's a mix of reflection, resolution, and rediscovery on this edition of World View. 702 Breakfast with Bongani Bingwa is broadcast on 702, a Johannesburg based talk radio station. Bongani makes sense of the news, interviews the key newsmakers of the day, and holds those in power to account on your behalf. The team bring you all you need to know to start your day Thank you for listening to a podcast from 702 Breakfast with Bongani Bingwa Listen live on Primedia+ weekdays from 06:00 and 09:00 (SA Time) to Breakfast with Bongani Bingwa broadcast on 702: https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj For more from the show go to https://buff.ly/36edSLV or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/zEcM35T Subscribe to the 702 Daily and Weekly Newsletters https://buff.ly/v5mfetc Follow us on social media: 702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/Radio702 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Global markets saw a mix of optimism and caution on Tuesday. The S&P 500 rose for a third consecutive session, buoyed by renewed hopes for progress in US-China trade talks, while US small business sentiment improved for the first time this year. In Asia, Taiwan semiconductor stocks surged, driven by a strong revenue boost. Meanwhile, in the US, J.M. Smucker shares tumbled, marking their steepest drop in nearly 40 years as tariffs weighed heavily on profits. Across Europe, markets were mixed, though UK shares edged closer to record highs despite a slowdown in wage growth. Closer to home, the ASX 200 is poised to break above 8,600 points on Wednesday, setting up a potential fresh record high as local momentum continues to build. The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI and PPI data and Tesla’s Robotaxi launch. In the UK – a look ahead to London’s Tech Summit. In Asia – a look ahead to readings on Chinese exports, as well industrial production and retail sales. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI and PPI data and Tesla’s Robotaxi launch. In the UK – a look ahead to London’s Tech Summit. In Asia – a look ahead to readings on Chinese exports, as well industrial production and retail sales. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With just over a year to go until the 2026 World Cup, the guys preview an exciting June window. In Asia, World Cup berths are on the line, with all eyes (and pressure) on Uzbekistan, Jordan and Australia. Meanwhile, Venezuela face Bolivia in a key CONMEBOL clash, while Italy make their qualification debut with a stiff test against Norway, and CONCACAF gets set to cut their field from 30 to 12.

In Episode 11 of Geopolitics with Ghost, Ghost dives into a chaotic international landscape marked by power vacuums, realignment, and narrative collapse. He begins with the stunning visual of the American flag raised once again over Damascus, signaling potential diplomatic restoration between the U.S. and Syria. Ghost unpacks the implications of this move in the context of Arab League reintegration and shifting allegiances in the Middle East. The episode then turns to Israel, where Netanyahu's fragile coalition teeters amid pressure from both domestic unrest and international negotiations with Hamas. Ghost explores the realpolitik behind the hostage talks, the future of Israeli leadership, and whether the U.S. is quietly stepping back from unconditional support. In Asia, the conversation moves to Putin's multi-vector diplomacy, including outreach to North Korea and Central Asia, and how Trump's economic and military posture may be shaping new alliances. Tensions around Taiwan, U.S. base repositioning, and questions about Japan's sovereignty also make the docket. With his signature clarity and historical insight, Ghost weaves together Syria, Israel, Russia, and China to illustrate the broader dismantling of the unipolar world, and the unpredictable road to whatever comes next. A must-listen for those tracking the silent reordering of global power.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the U.S jobs report. In the UK – a look ahead to the ECB’s monetary policy decision. In Asia – a look ahead to economic data in Vietnam. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the U.S jobs report. In the UK – a look ahead to the ECB’s monetary policy decision. In Asia – a look ahead to economic data in Vietnam. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

President Trump postpones EU tariff talks until July following a phone call with EC president Ursula Von Der Leyen to grant the bloc a reprieve from his threat of a 50 per cent levy. In Asia, Apple iPhone suppliers are in the red following Trump's threat of a 25 per cent tariff on the company's phones manufactured outside the U.S. Chinese automaker BYD cuts prices by up to 35 per cent as concerns over a global price war intensify.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to GDP and personal spending data, and Nvidia earnings. In the UK – a look ahead to Poland's Presidential run off election. In Asia – a look ahead to the upcoming Bank of Korea decision. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to GDP and personal spending data, and Nvidia earnings. In the UK – a look ahead to Poland's Presidential run off election. In Asia – a look ahead to the upcoming Bank of Korea decision. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our analysts Seth Carpenter and Serena Tang discuss why they believe the global economy is set to slow meaningfully in the second half of 2025.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Seth: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Serena: Today we'll discuss Morgan Stanley's midyear outlook for the global economy and markets.It's Wednesday, May 21st at 10am in New York.Seth, you published a year ahead outlook last November. Since President Trump took office back in January, there's been pretty significant policy and economic uncertainty and quite a few surprises. With this in mind, what is your current outlook for the global economy for the second half of this year and into 2026.Seth: So, we titled the outlook Skewed to the Downside because we really do think the U.S. economy, the global economy, is set to slow meaningfully from where we were coming into this year. Let's start with the U.S.As you said, policy changes came in a lot this year since the new administration took over. I would say the two key ones from a macro perspective so far have been trade policy and immigration policy.Tariffs have gone up, tariffs have gone down, tariffs have been suspended. Right now, what we think is going to ultimately take place is that we will see persistent, notable tariffs on China, lower tariffs on the rest of the world, and then we'll have to see how things evolve. What does that mean? Well, it means for the U.S. higher inflation and lower growth. In addition, immigration reform means that growth is going to slow because the growth rate of the labor force is going to slow.Now around the rest of the world, the tariff shock matters as well. When the U.S. puts in tariffs on its imports from other countries, that's negative demand for those other countries. So, we're looking for pretty weak growth in the euro area. Now, I will note, lots of people were excited about possible expansionary fiscal policy in Germany, and we think that's still there. We just don't think it's enough to give the euro area robust growth.In Asia, China's a main driver of the economy. China is a big recipient of these tariffs. We think the deflation cycle that we expected in China keeps going on. This reduction in demand from the U.S. is not going to help, but there'll probably be a little bit at the margin offsetting fiscal policy.So, what does that mean put together? Lackluster growth in China. Call it 4 percent slow growth for yet another year. Overall, the global economy should step down. Will it be a recession? That's one of the key questions that we hear from clients, but we don't think so. Not quite. Just a meaningful step downSerena: Interesting. Any particular regions that seem to be bright spots or surprises -- or perhaps have seen the biggest shift in your outlook?Seth: I guess I'd flag two potential bright spots around the world. The first is India. India has been, for us, a favorite. It will have the highest growth rate of any economy that we have in our coverage area. And because it's such a big economy, that's part of why the global economy can't lose that much steam. India has lots going for it. There are cyclical factors boosting growth in the near term. But there are also longer-term structural policy driven reasons to think that Indian growth will stay solid for the foreseeable future.I guess I'd also throw in Japan. Now its growth rate isn't going to be anywhere near the kind of growth in number terms that we're going to see from India. But this has to be taken in the context of 25 years of essentially zero growth of nominal GDP. The reflationary cycle that we think started a couple years ago remains intact, even with the tariff shock. And so, we're pretty optimistic still that Japanese reflation will continue.Serena: And to what extent are U.S. tariffs contributing to global inflationary pressures? I mean, how do you expect the Fed and other central banks to respond?Seth: The tariffs are imposed by the United States on most of the imports coming into the country, whereas other countries, maybe they have some retaliatory tariffs just against the U.S., but definitely not as broad as the U.S. That means for the U.S. tariffs are going to drive up inflation domestically and drive down growth, whereas for the rest of the world, it's mostly just a negative demand shock. So, they will be disinflationary for the rest of the world and pushing down growth.What does that mean for central banks? Well, outside of the U.S., central banks are going to see this as slowing aggregate demand, and so it's pretty clear what it is that they want to do. If they were hiking, they can stop hiking. If they were going to hold steady, they can lower rates a little bit. And if they were already lowering interest rates like the European Central Bank, well they can probably keep going with that without having to worry. And that's why we think the ECB is going to lower its policy rate to probably 1.5 percent and maybe even lower, which is below where the market is expecting things.Now for the Fed, things are much more tricky. The Fed cares about inflation, the Fed cares about U.S. growth, and both of those variables are going in the opposite direction of what they want over the rest of this forecast. Right now, inflation's too high for the Fed, and history shows that inflation goes up first with tariffs before the growth rate hits. So, the Fed's probably going to wait until the hard data show a bigger slowdown in the economy, a worsening. And the labor market. That is a bigger concern for them than the already too high inflation that is set to rise further over the rest of the year.Serena: And in your view, how does trade policy uncertainty influence business investment, particularly in export-oriented industries or in economies tightly linked to U.S. demand?Seth: Yeah. I think it has to be negative and therein lies one of the biggest challenges is just how negative. And I can't say for sure. But what we do know is that an uncertainty tends to be very negative for business investment spending decisions. If you're trying to make a decision, should I build a new factory?This is something that's going to have a long life to it, and you're going to get benefits hopefully for several years. How big are those benefits relative to the cost? Well, right now it's not at all clear, and so there's an option value to waiting.And we think that uncertainty is depressing investment decisions right now. I think it has to affect export-oriented industries. There's a lot of questions about what sort of retaliatory tariffs, other countries might impose.But it also affects domestic driven businesses because, well, they're going to have to see what their demand is. And some of the ones that are just focused on the U.S. economy are selling imported goods. So, it affects businesses across the board. Serena: Right. And how do U.S. tariff hikes spill over into emerging markets, and how might these countries buffer against these shocks?Seth: Yeah, I think there's a range of outcomes and the range is as wide as there are different countries. If you stay close to home. Take Mexico. Mexico is a big trading partner with the U.S. and early on in this whole tariff discussion, they were actually the targets of lots of tariff threats. That could have hurt them directly because there'd be less demand for their exports to the United States.Now we've got some resolution. We have the trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, and most of Mexico's exports to the U.S. are exempt under those conditions. However, the indirect effect is important as well. Mexico is very attached to the U.S. economy, and so as the U.S. economy slows because of these tariffs, the Mexican economy will slow as well.But there's also an indirect effect through currency markets, and I think this is a channel that's more broadly applicable across EM. If the Fed is going to be on hold, like we think holding interest rates higher for longer than the market might currently think, that means that EM central banks who might want to lower their policy rate to support their economy are going to be caught in a bit of a bind.They can't afford to take the risks that their currency will misbehave if they ease too much too far ahead of the Fed. And so, I think there is a little bit of a constraint for EM central banks, thinking about how much can I attend to domestic matters and how much do I have to pay attention to external matters?Serena: Now, I know forecasting economic growth is difficult in even the best of times, and this has been a period of exceptional volatility. How are you and your economic colleagues factoring all of this uncertainty?Seth: It's a great question and luminary minds like Neils Bohr, the Nobel Laureate in physics, and Yogi Berra, everyone's favorite prophet, have both said, ‘Forecasting is hard, especially about the future.' And this time, as you note, is even more so. So, what can we do? We try to come up with as many different scenarios as we can. We ask ourselves not just what's the most likely outcome, because there's uncertainty. The policy changes could come fast and furious. We also try to ask ourselves, if tariffs were to go back up from where they are now, how would that outcome turn out. If tariffs were to go away entirely, how would that turn out?You have to start thinking more and more, I think, in terms of scenarios.Serena:  And does this, in your view, change how much or how little investors should focus on the macro economy?Seth: Well, I think it means that investors have to focus every bit as much on the macro economy as they have in the past. I think it's undeniable that if we're right – and the U.S. economy slows down materially, and the global economy slows down with it – longer-term interest rates are probably going to come down along the lines of what our colleagues in interest rate strategy think. That makes a lot of sense to me. I think the trickier part though is knowing where the macro economy is going.We've got our forecast, but we are ready to make a revision if the facts change. And I think that's the trickier part for investors. The macro economy still matters but having a lot of conviction about where it's going, and as a result, what it means for asset prices? Well, that's the trickier part.Serena, you've been asking me lots of questions and they've been great questions, but I'm going to turn the table. I'm going to start asking questions right back to you.But we probably have to save that for another episode. So, let's pause it there.Serena: That sounds great Seth.Seth: And to the people listening, I want to say thanks for listening. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or a colleague today.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to a look ahead to home sales data and earnings from Target. In the UK – a look ahead to the Qatar Economic Forum. In Asia – a look ahead to earnings from Baidu. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to a look ahead to home sales data and earnings from Target. In the UK – a look ahead to the Qatar Economic Forum. In Asia – a look ahead to earnings from Baidu. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US markets rallied on the back of a US-China trade truce and lower-than-expected inflation data, easing recession concerns and boosting equities. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices rose, driven by gains in tech stocks, such as Nvidia and AMD, following a major semiconductor deal with a Saudi Arabian AI firm. In Asia, Hong Kong's market gained ground following strong earnings from JD.com, whereas Japan's Nikkei 225 experienced a slight decline after a 13-day uptrend. Looking ahead, European shares are poised to open flat, building on the previous day's positive session, which was fuelled by improved sentiment in Germany and a record high for the DAX. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, observes that Q1 earnings have exceeded expectations, but companies are issuing cautious guidance due to reduced visibility on the economic outlook.00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing00:27 Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Investment Writing06:47 Earnings/Equity Market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy11:08 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment WritingWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The US and China have agreed to a 90-day truce in the trade war, following negotiations in Geneva. As part of the deal, the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China will lower its duties on American goods from 125% to 10%. Markets have welcomed these developments, but key questions still remain about the implications for the economy and inflation. This uncertainty puts the Federal Reserve (Fed) in a tough spot, and we await more clarity on the Fed's direction from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on 15 May.   In Asia, the India–Pakistan conflict has calmed following a US-mediated ceasefire. We note that historically markets have typically recovered within a month of previous India-Pakistan conflicts, and continue to monitor key indicators such as the Indian Rupee and Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) flows, as well as geopolitical developments.   This episode is presented by Chintan Bhindora from the Julius Baer Research Asia team.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S eco data and earnings from the retail giant, Walmart. In the UK – a look ahead to Portugal’s general election. In Asia – a look ahead to Japan industrial production, PPI, and GDP data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S eco data and earnings from the retail giant, Walmart. In the UK – a look ahead to Portugal’s general election. In Asia – a look ahead to Japan industrial production, PPI, and GDP data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's Headlines: President Trump met with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to discuss trade, where Carney affirmed Canada's status as the U.S.'s largest trading partner despite Trump's contrary claims. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent admitted that the U.S. has yet to start formal trade talks with China, even as Trump downplayed the impact of not trading. In Asia, China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN formed a financial stability agreement, while India launched missile strikes in Kashmir following a massacre of Hindu tourists, escalating tensions with Pakistan. Domestically, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faced backlash over his use of Signal for sensitive communications amid reports of a government archiving tool hack. Hegseth also announced cuts to senior military ranks, reducing four-star officers by 20%. In a surprising move, the Trump administration sought to dismiss a lawsuit limiting access to the abortion pill mifepristone. The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 to temporarily allow Trump's transgender military ban, affecting over 4,000 service members. Meanwhile, the Vatican conclave began, as 133 cardinals gathered to elect a new Pope, needing a two-thirds majority to win. Resources/Articles mentioned in this episode: CNN: Trump's Oval Office meeting with Carney didn't reach Zelensky-level tension. But it wasn't all neighborliness Fox: US has yet to launch trade negotiations with China, Treasury secretary says Reuters: Japan, China, South Korea, ASEAN enhance regional financial safety net  The Guardian: Kashmir crisis live: India missile attack kills eight; Pakistan official says two Indian fighter jets shot down WSJ: Hegseth Used Multiple Signal Chats for Official Pentagon Business Axios: Signal archiving tool Trump officials used suspends services after hack claims  NY Times: Trump Administration Asks Court to Dismiss Abortion Pill Case NBC News: Supreme Court allows Trump to implement transgender military ban Reuters: Cardinals enter seclusion ahead of secret conclave to elect new pope  Morning Announcements is produced by Sami Sage and edited by Grace Hernandez-Johnson Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

S&P futures are pointing to a softer open, down (0.6%). European equities are mostly softer in early trades with only the FTSE 100 trading higher. In Asia, equities traded mixed as Greater China markets rallied after the Labor Day holiday, while Australia, Taiwan, and India posted losses amidst thin trading volumes. Asian currencies retreated Tuesday as the dollar stabilized and authorities dismissed speculation that forex movements were linked to tariff negotiations or a regional currency accord. Companies Mentioned: Doordash, Google

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to next week’s Fed decision and earnings from Walt Disney. In the UK – a look ahead to the challenges facing Germany’s next Chancellor. In Asia – a look ahead to a look ahead to economic data in China. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to next week’s Fed decision and earnings from Walt Disney. In the UK – a look ahead to the challenges facing Germany’s next Chancellor. In Asia – a look ahead to a look ahead to economic data in China. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the April jobs report and big tech earnings. In the UK – a look ahead to local elections. In Asia – a look ahead to China PMI data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to home sales data and Tesla earnings. In the UK – a look ahead to how companies across Europe and beyond are preparing to share their latest financial performances with the market. In Asia – a look ahead to how some Chinese companies are looking to skirt U.S President Donald Trump’s tariffs. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.