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Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the next Fed decision and earnings from FedEx. In the UK – a look ahead to President Trump’s visit to the UK. In Asia – a look ahead to the next monetary policy decision from the Bank of Japan and what’s next after its ruling Liberal Democratic Party Shigeru Ishiba resigned. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

America's most prominent young conservative was assassinated while conducting one of his signature campus events. His death might only widen political divides. In Asia a broad trend of deflation points to lower prices but unhealthy economies. And what happens when spiritual leaders are given hallucinogens.Get a world of insights by subscribing to Economist Podcasts+. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

America's most prominent young conservative was assassinated while conducting one of his signature campus events. His death might only widen political divides. In Asia a broad trend of deflation points to lower prices but unhealthy economies. And what happens when spiritual leaders are given hallucinogens.Get a world of insights by subscribing to Economist Podcasts+. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As philosopher Ludwig Wittgenstein observed, "The limits of my language mean the limits of my world." Words do not merely describe reality — they shape it. The United States is now offering its own example of this.On Friday, the US president signed an executive order restoring the historical title "Department of War" to the Pentagon. Even though Congress has yet to approve it to make the renaming permanent, the symbolism is powerful, revealing a shift in how Washington wishes to present itself to the world.The US changed the name of its War Department to the Department of Defense in 1949 after World War II and at the dawn of the nuclear age. At that time, the US lawmakers emphasized "defense" to signal restraint and deterrence, as new international institutions such as the United Nations were being established to safeguard peace. That choice of words carried weight. It underscored that military power was to be exercised with caution and with the aim of preventing conflict.The latest reversal, however, highlights a different mood in Washington. Supporters of the change argue that the original name reflects the US' history of strength and victory, pointing back to the world wars. Yet behind this rhetoric lies a message aligned with a more assertive and transactional view of security. The move fits into a wider policy pattern: the use of force in the Middle East, backing military offensives by allies, and calls for partners in Europe and Asia to assume greater financial burdens for US protection.Domestically, the decision has understandably provoked debate, if not strong opposition. Democrats in Congress quickly voiced their objections, calling the move "childish" or "dangerous". Think tanks and historians have also raised concerns that reintroducing the "Department of War" label risks undermining the US' "moral standing", particularly given the lessons of the nuclear age. Even among the public, the debate reflects fatigue with military campaigns abroad. Many Americans, after two decades of costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, fear that glorifying "war" rather than "defense" could mark a return to open-ended conflicts.In a survey carried out by CGTN among 14,071 respondents from 38 countries from 2023 to 2024, 61.3 percent of the respondents believed that the US is the most combative country in the world, and 70.1 percent thought that the US waging wars abroad has caused serious humanitarian crises worldwide.Allies are equally attentive. European governments, already unsettled by Washington's imposition of unilateral tariffs and its calls for higher defense spending, now face the additional challenge of explaining to the public why they should rally behind a "Department of War" of the US. And for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which has long presented itself as a defensive alliance, the optics of following a country that openly embraces the rhetoric of war may prove problematic.In Asia, too, US partners are watching closely. Some may fear that Washington is signaling a readiness to escalate conflicts in the region, while others may interpret the move as a prelude to shifting US resources inward. Reports that the Pentagon is drafting a new strategy, possibly downgrading the focus on the "Indo-Pacific" while prioritizing the Western Hemisphere and homeland security, will only add to the uncertainty, particularly among the US' regional pawns, such as the Philippines. If the allies and partners of the US sense that Washington is more aggressive in tone and less reliable in commitment, confidence in the US alliance system may weaken further.History offers perspective. The change of name from "War" to "Defense" was not mere semantics. It reflected a determination that in the nuclear age, stability depended on restraint, multilateral cooperation and an emphasis on peace. In today's uncertain world, that lesson remains valid. At a time when conflicts in Europe and the Middle East continue, and when the global community faces transnational challenges from climate change to public health, what is most needed is dialogue, coordination and restraint, not signals of confrontation.Language matters. The words governments choose shape perceptions, expectations and policy paths. The international community should therefore pay close attention to the implications of this renaming. It is a reminder that the US, as the world's largest military power, carries a special responsibility to lead not toward war, but toward peace. Only by upholding this responsibility can Washington, by giving the right answer to the fundamental question of war or peace, truly contribute to the common aspiration of all nations: a world defined not by conflict, but by peace and development.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to CPI and PPI data and Apple’s September 9th In the UK – on global defence industry gathering in London for the UK's flagship sector event. In Asia – a look ahead to China August CPI and PPI data. - Stuart Paul, US Economist with Bloomberg Economics, to preview CPI and PPI data.- Mark Gurman, Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Tech, to preview Apple’s September 9th event.- Ros Mathieson, Bloomberg Chief Asia Correspondent, on global defence industry gathering in London for the UK's flagship sector event.- Tony Halpin, Russian Government and Economy Team Leader, on global defence industry gathering in London for the UK's flagship sector event.- Mary Nicola, Bloomberg MLIV Strategist in Singapore, discusses China August CPI and PPI data.- Kevin Sneader, APAC ex-Japan President at Goldman Sachs, discusses China’s stock rally.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to CPI and PPI data and Apple’s September 9th In the UK – on global defence industry gathering in London for the UK's flagship sector event. In Asia – a look ahead to China August CPI and PPI data. - Stuart Paul, US Economist with Bloomberg Economics, to preview CPI and PPI data.- Mark Gurman, Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Tech, to preview Apple’s September 9th event.- Ros Mathieson, Bloomberg Chief Asia Correspondent, on global defence industry gathering in London for the UK's flagship sector event.- Tony Halpin, Russian Government and Economy Team Leader, on global defence industry gathering in London for the UK's flagship sector event.- Mary Nicola, Bloomberg MLIV Strategist in Singapore, discusses China August CPI and PPI data.- Kevin Sneader, APAC ex-Japan President at Goldman Sachs, discusses China’s stock rally.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the August labour market having been released in the US, we provide a reaction on the data, alongside next week's CPI and potential political pressures which could influence the Fed. In Europe, we focus on the French confidence vote and the ECB meeting on Thursday. In Asia, we talk politics in Japan and ASEAN, and how this may impact central bank policy in the months ahead. Chapters: US: 01:56, Europe: 08:45, ASEAN: 14:54, Japan: 22:29.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to CPI and PPI data and Apple’s September 9th In the UK – on global defence industry gathering in London for the UK's flagship sector event. In Asia – a look ahead to China August CPI and PPI data. - Stuart Paul, US Economist with Bloomberg Economics, to preview CPI and PPI data.- Mark Gurman, Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Tech, to preview Apple’s September 9th event.- Ros Mathieson, Bloomberg Chief Asia Correspondent, on global defence industry gathering in London for the UK's flagship sector event.- Tony Halpin, Russian Government and Economy Team Leader, on global defence industry gathering in London for the UK's flagship sector event.- Mary Nicola, Bloomberg MLIV Strategist in Singapore, discusses China August CPI and PPI data.- Kevin Sneader, APAC ex-Japan President at Goldman Sachs, discusses China’s stock rally.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US equity futures are slightly firmer. Asia ended mixed, and European markets opened mostly firmer. The market focus today is Fed easing expectations strengthened with September cut odds above 95% following weak JOLTS data, while Governor Waller reiterated support for cuts and Bostic and Kashkari flagged tariff-related inflation risks; Markets continued to track bond market stabilization after recent yield volatility, with the US 10-year holding steady following Wednesday's rally; Political focus in the US turned to Fed independence, with Senate GOP signaling opposition to replacing Governor Cook until her legal status is settled; In Asia, regulators were reported to be weighing measures to curb speculation in Chinese markets.Companies Mentioned: Apple, Alphabet, Exxon, DigitalBridge Group

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the August jobs report and earnings from Salesforce In the UK – a look at the future of Europe's banking industry In Asia – a look at how China is stepping up the technology battle with the US See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the August jobs report and earnings from Salesforce In the UK – a look at the future of Europe's banking industry In Asia – a look at how China is stepping up the technology battle with the US See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's another big week ahead with all eyes on the US jobs report and on-going headlines regarding the firing of Fed Governor Cook. In Europe, we discuss upcoming inflation data, some central bank divergence, and the potential fallout from the vote of confidence in France. In Asia, the focus is on China's growth outlook and Beijing's likely policy strategy amid a strong rally in equity markets. Finally, in a special segment in this episode, we focus on the next leg of easing by Asian central banks and market implications, with Sonal Varma, Chief Economist for India & Asia ex Japan, and Albert Leung, Asia Rates Strategist. Chapters: (US: 01:53, EMEA: 08:08, China: 12:19, Asia Central Banks Special: 17:25).

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the August jobs report and earnings from Salesforce In the UK – a look at the future of Europe's banking industry In Asia – a look at how China is stepping up the technology battle with the US See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to personal spending data and earnings from Nvidia. In the UK – a look at the upcoming Medef Conference. In Asia – a look at the next Bank of Korea decision and the HK IPO market. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to personal spending data and earnings from Nvidia. In the UK – a look at the upcoming Medef Conference. In Asia – a look at the next Bank of Korea decision and the HK IPO market. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to personal spending data and earnings from Nvidia. In the UK – a look at the upcoming Medef Conference. In Asia – a look at the next Bank of Korea decision and the HK IPO market. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our analysts Tim Chan and Mayank Maheshwari discuss how nuclear power and natural gas are reshaping Asia's evolving energy mix, and what these trends mean for sustainability and the future of energy. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Tim Chan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Tim Chan, Morgan Stanley's Head of Asia Sustainability Research.Mayank Maheshwari: And I am Mayank Maheshwari, the Energy Analyst for India and Southeast Asia.Tim Chan: Today – a major shift in global energy. We are talking about nuclear power, gas adoption, and what the future holds.It's Monday, August 18th at 8am in Hong Kong.Mayank Maheshwari: And it's 8am in Singapore.Tim Chan: Nuclear power is no longer niche; it's a megatrend. It was once seen as controversial and capital intensive. But now nuclear power is stepping into the spotlight—not just for decarbonization, but for energy security. Global investment projections in this sector are now topping more than $2 trillion by 2050. This is fueled by a growing appetite from major tech companies for clean, reliable 24/7 energy. More specifically, Asia is emerging as the epicenter of capacity growth, and that's where your coverage comes in, Mayank.With the rising consumption of electricity, how does nuclear energy adoption stack up in your universe?Mayank Maheshwari: Tim, it's a fascinating world on power right now that we are seeing. Now the tight global power markets perspective is key on why there is so much investor and policymaker attention to nuclear power.Nuclear fuels accounted for about a tenth of the power units produced globally. However, they are almost a fifth of the global clean power generation. Now, power consumption is at another tripping point, and this is after tripling since 1980s. To give you a perspective, Tim, 25 trillion units of power were consumed worldwide last year, and we see this growing rapidly at a 25 percent pace in the next five years or so. And if you look at consumption growth outside of China, it's even faster at 2.5x for the rest of the decade when compared to the last decade.Now policy makers need energy security and hence, nuclear is getting a lot more attention. In Asia, while China, Korea, and Japan have been using nuclear energy to power the economy, the rest of Asia, it has been more an ambition – with India being the only country making progress last decade. Southeast Asia still has a lot more coal, and nuclear remains an ambition as technology acceptance by public and regulatory framework remains a key handicap. We do, however, see policy makers in Singapore, Vietnam, and Malaysia looking at nuclear fuels more seriously now, with SMRs also being discussed.Tim Chan: That is a really interesting perspective, Mayank. So, you have been bullish on the Asia gas adoption story. So, how do you think gas and nuclear will intersect in this region?Mayank Maheshwari: I think nuclear and natural gas, like all of the fuel stem, will complement each other. However, the long gestation to put nuclear capacity makes gas a viable alternative for energy security. As I was telling you earlier, policy makers are definitely focusing on it. As you know, the last big increase in focus in nuclear fuels also happened in the 1970s oil shock, again when energy security came into play.Global natural gas consumption has more than doubled in the last three decades, and it's set to surprise again with AsiaPac's consumption pretty much set to rise at twice the pace versus what right now expectations are by the street. In this age of electrification and AI adoption, natural gas is definitely emerging as a dependable and an affordable fuel of the future to power everything from automobiles to humanoids, biogenetics, to AI data centers, and even semiconductor production, which is getting so much focus nowadays.We expect global consumption to rise again after not growing this decade for natural gas. As Asia's natural gas adoption rises and grows at 5 percent CAGR 2024-2030; with consumption for gas surprising in China, India, and Japan. So, all the large economies are seeing this big increases, especially versus expectations.The region will consume 70 percent of the globally traded natural gas by 2030. So that's how important Asia will be for the world. And while global gas glut is well flagged, especially coming out of the U.S., Asia's ability to absorb this glut is not very well appreciated.Tim, having said that, nuclear energy is clearly getting more interest globally and is often debated in sustainability circles. How do you see its role evolving in sustainability frameworks as well as green taxonomies?Tim Chan: On sustainability, one thing to talk about is exclusion. That is really important for many sustainable sustainability investors. And when it comes to exclusion for nuclear power, only 2.3 percent of global AUM now exclude nuclear power. And then, that percentage is lower than alcohol, military contracting and gambling. And the exclusion rate is also different dependent on the region. Right now, European investors have the highest exclusion rate but have reduced the nuclear exclusion from 10.9 percent to 8.4 percent as of December last year. And North American and Asian exclusion rates are very, very low. Just 0.3 percent and 0.6 percent respectively.So, this exclusion in North America and Asia are minimal. The World Bank has also lifted, its decades long ban on financing nuclear project, which is important because World Bank can provide capital to fund the early stage of nuclear plant project or construction.And finally, on green finance. The EU, China and Japan have incorporated the nuclear power into their green taxonomies. So that means in some circumstances, nuclear project can be considered as green.Mayank Maheshwari: Now we have talked about AI and its need for power on this show. Nuclear power has a significant role to play in that equation, with hyperscalers paying premium for nuclear power. How does this support the investment case for nuclear utilities?Tim Chan: Yeah, so that depends on the region; and then different region we have different dilemmas. So, let's talk about U.S. first. In the U.S. we are seeing nuclear power is commanding a premium of approximately around $30-$50 per megawatt hour – above the market rate. So, when it comes to this price premium, we do think that will support the nuclear utilities in the U.S. And then in the report we highlighted a few names that we believe the current stock price haven't really priced in this premium in the market.And then for other regions, it depends on the region as well. So, Mayank, you have talked about Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia right now, given the lack of nuclear pipeline and then also the favorable economies of gas, we are not seeing that sort of premium yet in the Southeast Asia. We are also not seeing that premium in the Europe and in China as well, given that right now this sort of premium is mainly a U.S. exclusive situation. So dependent on the region, we are seeing different opportunities for nuclear utilities when it comes to the price premium.Mayank Maheshwari: Definitely Tim, I think the price premiums are dependent on how tight these power markets in each of the geographies are. But like, how does nuclear fit into broader energy mix alongside renewables and natural gas for you?Tim Chan: So, all these are really important. For nuclear power, investors really appreciate the clean and reliable, and for the 24x7 nature of the energy supply to support their operations and sustainability goals. And then nuclear is also important to bring the power additionality, which means nuclear is bringing truly new energy generation rather than simply utilizing a system or already planned capacity. We are seeing that sort of additionality in the new nuclear project and also the SMR in future as well.So, for natural gas, that is also important. As Mayank you have mentioned, natural gas money adds as a bridge field to provide flexibility to the grid. And then in the U.S., it is currently the primary near-term solution for powering AI and data center to increase the electricity supply due to its speed to the market and reliability. And natural gas is suspected to meet immediate demand, while longer term solutions like nuclear projects and also SMR are developed.And finally, renewable energy is also important. It represents the fastest growing and increasingly cost competitive energy source. They also dominate the new capacity additions as well. But for renewable energy, it also requires complimentary technology such as battery ESS to adjust intermittency issues.So, Mayank we have talked so much about nuclear, and back to you on natural gas. You are really bullish on natural gas. So how and where do you think are the best way to play it?Mayank Maheshwari: As you were kind of talking about the intersection and diffusion between nuclear, natural gas and the renewable markets, what you're seeing is that our bullishness on consumption of natural gas is basically all about how this diffusion plays out. Consumption on natural gas will rise much quicker than most fuels for the rest of the decade, if you think about numbers – making it more than just a transition fuel.Hence, Morgan Stanley research has a list of 75 equities globally to play the thematic of this diffusion, and it is happening in the power markets. These equities are part of the natural gas adoption and the powering AI thematic as well. So, these include the equipment producers on power, the gas pipeline players who are basically supporting the supply of natural gas to some of these pipelines. Hybrid power generation companies which have a good mix of renewables, natural gas, a bit of nuclear sometimes. And infrastructure providers for energy security.So, all these 75 stocks are effective playing at the intersection of all these three thematics that we are talking about as Morgan Stanley research. It is clear that nuclear renaissance, Tim, isn't just about reactors. It's about rethinking energy systems, sustainability, and geopolitics.Tim Chan: Yes, and the last decade will be defined by how we balance ambition with execution. Nuclear together with gas and renewables will be central to Asia's energy future. Mayank, thanks for taking the time to talk,Mayank Maheshwari: Great speaking to you, Tim.Tim Chan: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to housing data and retail earnings. In the UK – a look at challenges facing European banking consolidation ahead of an upcoming shareholder vote in Italy. In Asia – a look at Japan CPI, PMI, and trade. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

All eyes are on Anchorage, Alaska, as the city prepares to host today's meeting between Donald Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin, with the U.S. President saying he's already contemplating a second summit to bring in Ukraine's leadership. Meanwhile, a hotter-than-expected PPI print stateside pours cold water on outside hopes of a jumbo Fed cut in September, and sending yields higher. But markets in Europe remain on track for healthy returns this week. In Asia, Chinese growth data slumps across the board with retail sales, industrial output and fixed asset investment all undershooting expectations - as the threat of tariffs continues to loom over the world's second largest economy.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to housing data and retail earnings. In the UK – a look at challenges facing European banking consolidation ahead of an upcoming shareholder vote in Italy. In Asia – a look at Japan CPI, PMI, and trade. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to housing data and retail earnings. In the UK – a look at challenges facing European banking consolidation ahead of an upcoming shareholder vote in Italy. In Asia – a look at Japan CPI, PMI, and trade. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Guest Host Amy Morris take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI, PPI, and retail sales data, along with Cisco earnings. In the UK – a look at Europe’s renewable energy sector and Vestas earnings. In Asia – a look at ahead to the next RBA decision, and the impact of chip tariffs. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Guest Host Amy Morris take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI, PPI, and retail sales data, along with Cisco earnings. In the UK – a look at Europe’s renewable energy sector and Vestas earnings. In Asia – a look at ahead to the next RBA decision, and the impact of chip tariffs. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to earnings from Walt Disney and Uber. In the UK – a look ahead to earnings from BP. In Asia – a look at ahead to how US smartphone production will be impacted by Apple’s shift towards India, along with an outlook for China property. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Following the 15% tariff announced for Europe, further tariff rate announcements for India and South Korea have followed. For global markets, our focus remains on tariff announcements, key macro data and central banks. In this episode, we discuss these developments, as well as the Bank of England policy meeting, where a rate cut is widely expected. In Asia, the focus is on a policy meeting in India, inflation and key earnings data in Japan. Chapters: (US: 01:41, EMEA: 07:34, Asia: 12:49).

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to earnings from Walt Disney and Uber. In the UK – a look ahead to earnings from BP. In Asia – a look at ahead to how US smartphone production will be impacted by Apple’s shift towards India, along with an outlook for China property. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to a monetary policy decision from the Fed and earnings from some of the “Magnificent Seven” tech companies. In the UK – a look at President Trump’s trip to Scotland. In Asia – a look at ahead to China PMI data and a conversation on Asia tech investing. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Following a number of trade deals announced in the last week, financial markets seem to be taking the news in a positive manner with equity markets continuing to edge higher and bond yields remaining in fairly narrow ranges. However, one bond market that has stood out is Germany where yields have jumped following hawkish ECB commentary after their July rate meeting, which we discuss in this episode alongside the potential EU-US trade deal. We also discuss the US implications of trade deals, preview the FOMC decision and US labour market data, both of which are due next week. In Asia, we focus on trade developments in India and ASEAN, the Japan upper house election, and the US-Japan trade deal. Chapters: US: 01:54, EMEA: 10:29, Asia: 15:05,  Japan: 22:13.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to a monetary policy decision from the Fed and earnings from some of the “Magnificent Seven” tech companies. In the UK – a look at President Trump’s trip to Scotland. In Asia – a look at ahead to China PMI data and a conversation on Asia tech investing. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to housing data and earnings from Tesla. In the UK – a look ahead to the next ECB monetary policy decision. In Asia – a look at ahead to Japan’s upper house election. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to housing data and earnings from Tesla. In the UK – a look ahead to the next ECB monetary policy decision. In Asia – a look at ahead to Japan’s upper house election. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Global stock markets experienced a positive day yesterday, bolstered by impressive earnings reports – including those from ABB – and favourable macroeconomic data from the US. The latter indicated a resilient retail sector, underpinned by a strong US consumer. As a result, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both closed at record highs. In Asia, however, the outlook is more mixed, with attention centred on Japan ahead of its upper house elections this weekend. On the commodities front, oil prices remain steady, whereas gold has edged down slightly this morning. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and the US dollar have both appreciated. We are joined today by Bence Boldvai from FX/PM Solutions, who discusses the latest developments in currencies and metals.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing (07:26) - FX and metals: Bence Boldvai, FX/PM Solutions (11:07) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI and PPI data, along with Netflix earnings. In the UK – a look ahead to a speech from UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves. In Asia – a look at several key data points for the Japanese economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI and PPI data, along with Netflix earnings. In the UK – a look ahead to a speech from UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves. In Asia – a look at several key data points for the Japanese economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The UK saw another round of combined sterling and gilt weakness, a pattern which is becoming worryingly familiar. Politics elsewhere seemed to have run a bit more smoothly with the US budget bill passing through the Senate and House, teeing up some degree of fiscal expansion for the year ahead. Tariffs remain on the agenda for the week ahead, as we approach the 9 July deadline. In Asia, we focus on the Bank of Korea's likely hawkishness relative to potential rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Chapters: (US: 02:14, Asia: 08:53, Australia & New Zealand: 13:53, EMEA: 16:33).

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the June jobs report and commodities outlook. In the UK – a look ahead to the annual summer economic conference in the Southern French city of Aix. In Asia – a look at relations between China and Iran. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tensions in the Middle East have eased but we enter the month of July with other flashpoints to watch. In the US, all eyes on labor market data, the Fed, and prospects of passing the One Big Beautiful bill. CPI data across Europe and the ECB forum in Sintra are on tap, while Germany approved a big budget. In Asia, we expect still-benign inflation and discuss trade deal prospects and our change in RBA forecast. Chapters: US (02:00), Europe (08:58), Asia (14:35). 

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the June jobs report and commodities outlook. In the UK – a look ahead to the annual summer economic conference in the Southern French city of Aix. In Asia – a look at relations between China and Iran. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S GDP and personal spending data and Nike earnings. In the UK – a look ahead to TheCityUK's annual conference. In Asia – a look ahead to Bloomberg’s China economic survey.-----------------------------------------------------------------Guests:-Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent, to preview next week's U.S GDP/personal spending data.- Poonam Goyal, Senior U.S. E-Commerce and Retail Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, to preview Nike earnings. -Leo Kehnscherper, Bloomberg European Asset Management Reporter, looks ahead to TheCityUK's annual conference. -Julian Harris, UK Economics Editor, looks ahead to TheCityUK's annual conference. - Eric Zhu, China Economist for Bloomberg Economics, discusses Bloomberg’s China Economic Survey. -Karishma Vaswani, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist in Singapore, discusses her column: “US Rethink on Australia Subs Is China’s Win.” See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Market dynamics in the last week have been dominated by developments in the Middle East, where the ongoing military action between Israel and Iran continues to have a notable impact on investor risk sentiment and oil prices. In the US and Europe, we dissect a week of central bank decisions, including the Fed and the Bank of England. In Asia we look at how trade is evolving and discuss local political developments in Thailand. Chapters: US (01:42), Europe (10:59), Asia (16:01). 

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S GDP and personal spending data and Nike earnings. In the UK – a look ahead to TheCityUK's annual conference. In Asia – a look ahead to Bloomberg’s China economic survey.-----------------------------------------------------------------Guests:-Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent, to preview next week's U.S GDP/personal spending data.- Poonam Goyal, Senior U.S. E-Commerce and Retail Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, to preview Nike earnings. -Leo Kehnscherper, Bloomberg European Asset Management Reporter, looks ahead to TheCityUK's annual conference. -Julian Harris, UK Economics Editor, looks ahead to TheCityUK's annual conference. - Eric Zhu, China Economist for Bloomberg Economics, discusses Bloomberg’s China Economic Survey. -Karishma Vaswani, Bloomberg Opinion Columnist in Singapore, discusses her column: “US Rethink on Australia Subs Is China’s Win.” See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to next week’s Fed decision. In the UK – a look ahead to next week’s Bank of England decision. In Asia – a look ahead to next week's Bank of Japan decision. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to next week’s Fed decision. In the UK – a look ahead to next week’s Bank of England decision. In Asia – a look ahead to next week's Bank of Japan decision. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI and PPI data and Tesla’s Robotaxi launch. In the UK – a look ahead to London’s Tech Summit. In Asia – a look ahead to readings on Chinese exports, as well industrial production and retail sales. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With just over a year to go until the 2026 World Cup, the guys preview an exciting June window. In Asia, World Cup berths are on the line, with all eyes (and pressure) on Uzbekistan, Jordan and Australia. Meanwhile, Venezuela face Bolivia in a key CONMEBOL clash, while Italy make their qualification debut with a stiff test against Norway, and CONCACAF gets set to cut their field from 30 to 12.

In Episode 11 of Geopolitics with Ghost, Ghost dives into a chaotic international landscape marked by power vacuums, realignment, and narrative collapse. He begins with the stunning visual of the American flag raised once again over Damascus, signaling potential diplomatic restoration between the U.S. and Syria. Ghost unpacks the implications of this move in the context of Arab League reintegration and shifting allegiances in the Middle East. The episode then turns to Israel, where Netanyahu's fragile coalition teeters amid pressure from both domestic unrest and international negotiations with Hamas. Ghost explores the realpolitik behind the hostage talks, the future of Israeli leadership, and whether the U.S. is quietly stepping back from unconditional support. In Asia, the conversation moves to Putin's multi-vector diplomacy, including outreach to North Korea and Central Asia, and how Trump's economic and military posture may be shaping new alliances. Tensions around Taiwan, U.S. base repositioning, and questions about Japan's sovereignty also make the docket. With his signature clarity and historical insight, Ghost weaves together Syria, Israel, Russia, and China to illustrate the broader dismantling of the unipolar world, and the unpredictable road to whatever comes next. A must-listen for those tracking the silent reordering of global power.

Our analysts Seth Carpenter and Serena Tang discuss why they believe the global economy is set to slow meaningfully in the second half of 2025.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Seth: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Serena: Today we'll discuss Morgan Stanley's midyear outlook for the global economy and markets.It's Wednesday, May 21st at 10am in New York.Seth, you published a year ahead outlook last November. Since President Trump took office back in January, there's been pretty significant policy and economic uncertainty and quite a few surprises. With this in mind, what is your current outlook for the global economy for the second half of this year and into 2026.Seth: So, we titled the outlook Skewed to the Downside because we really do think the U.S. economy, the global economy, is set to slow meaningfully from where we were coming into this year. Let's start with the U.S.As you said, policy changes came in a lot this year since the new administration took over. I would say the two key ones from a macro perspective so far have been trade policy and immigration policy.Tariffs have gone up, tariffs have gone down, tariffs have been suspended. Right now, what we think is going to ultimately take place is that we will see persistent, notable tariffs on China, lower tariffs on the rest of the world, and then we'll have to see how things evolve. What does that mean? Well, it means for the U.S. higher inflation and lower growth. In addition, immigration reform means that growth is going to slow because the growth rate of the labor force is going to slow.Now around the rest of the world, the tariff shock matters as well. When the U.S. puts in tariffs on its imports from other countries, that's negative demand for those other countries. So, we're looking for pretty weak growth in the euro area. Now, I will note, lots of people were excited about possible expansionary fiscal policy in Germany, and we think that's still there. We just don't think it's enough to give the euro area robust growth.In Asia, China's a main driver of the economy. China is a big recipient of these tariffs. We think the deflation cycle that we expected in China keeps going on. This reduction in demand from the U.S. is not going to help, but there'll probably be a little bit at the margin offsetting fiscal policy.So, what does that mean put together? Lackluster growth in China. Call it 4 percent slow growth for yet another year. Overall, the global economy should step down. Will it be a recession? That's one of the key questions that we hear from clients, but we don't think so. Not quite. Just a meaningful step downSerena: Interesting. Any particular regions that seem to be bright spots or surprises -- or perhaps have seen the biggest shift in your outlook?Seth: I guess I'd flag two potential bright spots around the world. The first is India. India has been, for us, a favorite. It will have the highest growth rate of any economy that we have in our coverage area. And because it's such a big economy, that's part of why the global economy can't lose that much steam. India has lots going for it. There are cyclical factors boosting growth in the near term. But there are also longer-term structural policy driven reasons to think that Indian growth will stay solid for the foreseeable future.I guess I'd also throw in Japan. Now its growth rate isn't going to be anywhere near the kind of growth in number terms that we're going to see from India. But this has to be taken in the context of 25 years of essentially zero growth of nominal GDP. The reflationary cycle that we think started a couple years ago remains intact, even with the tariff shock. And so, we're pretty optimistic still that Japanese reflation will continue.Serena: And to what extent are U.S. tariffs contributing to global inflationary pressures? I mean, how do you expect the Fed and other central banks to respond?Seth: The tariffs are imposed by the United States on most of the imports coming into the country, whereas other countries, maybe they have some retaliatory tariffs just against the U.S., but definitely not as broad as the U.S. That means for the U.S. tariffs are going to drive up inflation domestically and drive down growth, whereas for the rest of the world, it's mostly just a negative demand shock. So, they will be disinflationary for the rest of the world and pushing down growth.What does that mean for central banks? Well, outside of the U.S., central banks are going to see this as slowing aggregate demand, and so it's pretty clear what it is that they want to do. If they were hiking, they can stop hiking. If they were going to hold steady, they can lower rates a little bit. And if they were already lowering interest rates like the European Central Bank, well they can probably keep going with that without having to worry. And that's why we think the ECB is going to lower its policy rate to probably 1.5 percent and maybe even lower, which is below where the market is expecting things.Now for the Fed, things are much more tricky. The Fed cares about inflation, the Fed cares about U.S. growth, and both of those variables are going in the opposite direction of what they want over the rest of this forecast. Right now, inflation's too high for the Fed, and history shows that inflation goes up first with tariffs before the growth rate hits. So, the Fed's probably going to wait until the hard data show a bigger slowdown in the economy, a worsening. And the labor market. That is a bigger concern for them than the already too high inflation that is set to rise further over the rest of the year.Serena: And in your view, how does trade policy uncertainty influence business investment, particularly in export-oriented industries or in economies tightly linked to U.S. demand?Seth: Yeah. I think it has to be negative and therein lies one of the biggest challenges is just how negative. And I can't say for sure. But what we do know is that an uncertainty tends to be very negative for business investment spending decisions. If you're trying to make a decision, should I build a new factory?This is something that's going to have a long life to it, and you're going to get benefits hopefully for several years. How big are those benefits relative to the cost? Well, right now it's not at all clear, and so there's an option value to waiting.And we think that uncertainty is depressing investment decisions right now. I think it has to affect export-oriented industries. There's a lot of questions about what sort of retaliatory tariffs, other countries might impose.But it also affects domestic driven businesses because, well, they're going to have to see what their demand is. And some of the ones that are just focused on the U.S. economy are selling imported goods. So, it affects businesses across the board. Serena: Right. And how do U.S. tariff hikes spill over into emerging markets, and how might these countries buffer against these shocks?Seth: Yeah, I think there's a range of outcomes and the range is as wide as there are different countries. If you stay close to home. Take Mexico. Mexico is a big trading partner with the U.S. and early on in this whole tariff discussion, they were actually the targets of lots of tariff threats. That could have hurt them directly because there'd be less demand for their exports to the United States.Now we've got some resolution. We have the trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, and most of Mexico's exports to the U.S. are exempt under those conditions. However, the indirect effect is important as well. Mexico is very attached to the U.S. economy, and so as the U.S. economy slows because of these tariffs, the Mexican economy will slow as well.But there's also an indirect effect through currency markets, and I think this is a channel that's more broadly applicable across EM. If the Fed is going to be on hold, like we think holding interest rates higher for longer than the market might currently think, that means that EM central banks who might want to lower their policy rate to support their economy are going to be caught in a bit of a bind.They can't afford to take the risks that their currency will misbehave if they ease too much too far ahead of the Fed. And so, I think there is a little bit of a constraint for EM central banks, thinking about how much can I attend to domestic matters and how much do I have to pay attention to external matters?Serena: Now, I know forecasting economic growth is difficult in even the best of times, and this has been a period of exceptional volatility. How are you and your economic colleagues factoring all of this uncertainty?Seth: It's a great question and luminary minds like Neils Bohr, the Nobel Laureate in physics, and Yogi Berra, everyone's favorite prophet, have both said, ‘Forecasting is hard, especially about the future.' And this time, as you note, is even more so. So, what can we do? We try to come up with as many different scenarios as we can. We ask ourselves not just what's the most likely outcome, because there's uncertainty. The policy changes could come fast and furious. We also try to ask ourselves, if tariffs were to go back up from where they are now, how would that outcome turn out. If tariffs were to go away entirely, how would that turn out?You have to start thinking more and more, I think, in terms of scenarios.Serena:  And does this, in your view, change how much or how little investors should focus on the macro economy?Seth: Well, I think it means that investors have to focus every bit as much on the macro economy as they have in the past. I think it's undeniable that if we're right – and the U.S. economy slows down materially, and the global economy slows down with it – longer-term interest rates are probably going to come down along the lines of what our colleagues in interest rate strategy think. That makes a lot of sense to me. I think the trickier part though is knowing where the macro economy is going.We've got our forecast, but we are ready to make a revision if the facts change. And I think that's the trickier part for investors. The macro economy still matters but having a lot of conviction about where it's going, and as a result, what it means for asset prices? Well, that's the trickier part.Serena, you've been asking me lots of questions and they've been great questions, but I'm going to turn the table. I'm going to start asking questions right back to you.But we probably have to save that for another episode. So, let's pause it there.Serena: That sounds great Seth.Seth: And to the people listening, I want to say thanks for listening. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or a colleague today.

The US and China have agreed to a 90-day truce in the trade war, following negotiations in Geneva. As part of the deal, the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China will lower its duties on American goods from 125% to 10%. Markets have welcomed these developments, but key questions still remain about the implications for the economy and inflation. This uncertainty puts the Federal Reserve (Fed) in a tough spot, and we await more clarity on the Fed's direction from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on 15 May.   In Asia, the India–Pakistan conflict has calmed following a US-mediated ceasefire. We note that historically markets have typically recovered within a month of previous India-Pakistan conflicts, and continue to monitor key indicators such as the Indian Rupee and Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) flows, as well as geopolitical developments.   This episode is presented by Chintan Bhindora from the Julius Baer Research Asia team.

Today's Headlines: President Trump met with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to discuss trade, where Carney affirmed Canada's status as the U.S.'s largest trading partner despite Trump's contrary claims. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent admitted that the U.S. has yet to start formal trade talks with China, even as Trump downplayed the impact of not trading. In Asia, China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN formed a financial stability agreement, while India launched missile strikes in Kashmir following a massacre of Hindu tourists, escalating tensions with Pakistan. Domestically, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faced backlash over his use of Signal for sensitive communications amid reports of a government archiving tool hack. Hegseth also announced cuts to senior military ranks, reducing four-star officers by 20%. In a surprising move, the Trump administration sought to dismiss a lawsuit limiting access to the abortion pill mifepristone. The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 to temporarily allow Trump's transgender military ban, affecting over 4,000 service members. Meanwhile, the Vatican conclave began, as 133 cardinals gathered to elect a new Pope, needing a two-thirds majority to win. Resources/Articles mentioned in this episode: CNN: Trump's Oval Office meeting with Carney didn't reach Zelensky-level tension. But it wasn't all neighborliness Fox: US has yet to launch trade negotiations with China, Treasury secretary says Reuters: Japan, China, South Korea, ASEAN enhance regional financial safety net  The Guardian: Kashmir crisis live: India missile attack kills eight; Pakistan official says two Indian fighter jets shot down WSJ: Hegseth Used Multiple Signal Chats for Official Pentagon Business Axios: Signal archiving tool Trump officials used suspends services after hack claims  NY Times: Trump Administration Asks Court to Dismiss Abortion Pill Case NBC News: Supreme Court allows Trump to implement transgender military ban Reuters: Cardinals enter seclusion ahead of secret conclave to elect new pope  Morning Announcements is produced by Sami Sage and edited by Grace Hernandez-Johnson Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices