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Our analysts Seth Carpenter and Serena Tang discuss why they believe the global economy is set to slow meaningfully in the second half of 2025.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Seth: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Serena: Today we'll discuss Morgan Stanley's midyear outlook for the global economy and markets.It's Wednesday, May 21st at 10am in New York.Seth, you published a year ahead outlook last November. Since President Trump took office back in January, there's been pretty significant policy and economic uncertainty and quite a few surprises. With this in mind, what is your current outlook for the global economy for the second half of this year and into 2026.Seth: So, we titled the outlook Skewed to the Downside because we really do think the U.S. economy, the global economy, is set to slow meaningfully from where we were coming into this year. Let's start with the U.S.As you said, policy changes came in a lot this year since the new administration took over. I would say the two key ones from a macro perspective so far have been trade policy and immigration policy.Tariffs have gone up, tariffs have gone down, tariffs have been suspended. Right now, what we think is going to ultimately take place is that we will see persistent, notable tariffs on China, lower tariffs on the rest of the world, and then we'll have to see how things evolve. What does that mean? Well, it means for the U.S. higher inflation and lower growth. In addition, immigration reform means that growth is going to slow because the growth rate of the labor force is going to slow.Now around the rest of the world, the tariff shock matters as well. When the U.S. puts in tariffs on its imports from other countries, that's negative demand for those other countries. So, we're looking for pretty weak growth in the euro area. Now, I will note, lots of people were excited about possible expansionary fiscal policy in Germany, and we think that's still there. We just don't think it's enough to give the euro area robust growth.In Asia, China's a main driver of the economy. China is a big recipient of these tariffs. We think the deflation cycle that we expected in China keeps going on. This reduction in demand from the U.S. is not going to help, but there'll probably be a little bit at the margin offsetting fiscal policy.So, what does that mean put together? Lackluster growth in China. Call it 4 percent slow growth for yet another year. Overall, the global economy should step down. Will it be a recession? That's one of the key questions that we hear from clients, but we don't think so. Not quite. Just a meaningful step downSerena: Interesting. Any particular regions that seem to be bright spots or surprises -- or perhaps have seen the biggest shift in your outlook?Seth: I guess I'd flag two potential bright spots around the world. The first is India. India has been, for us, a favorite. It will have the highest growth rate of any economy that we have in our coverage area. And because it's such a big economy, that's part of why the global economy can't lose that much steam. India has lots going for it. There are cyclical factors boosting growth in the near term. But there are also longer-term structural policy driven reasons to think that Indian growth will stay solid for the foreseeable future.I guess I'd also throw in Japan. Now its growth rate isn't going to be anywhere near the kind of growth in number terms that we're going to see from India. But this has to be taken in the context of 25 years of essentially zero growth of nominal GDP. The reflationary cycle that we think started a couple years ago remains intact, even with the tariff shock. And so, we're pretty optimistic still that Japanese reflation will continue.Serena: And to what extent are U.S. tariffs contributing to global inflationary pressures? I mean, how do you expect the Fed and other central banks to respond?Seth: The tariffs are imposed by the United States on most of the imports coming into the country, whereas other countries, maybe they have some retaliatory tariffs just against the U.S., but definitely not as broad as the U.S. That means for the U.S. tariffs are going to drive up inflation domestically and drive down growth, whereas for the rest of the world, it's mostly just a negative demand shock. So, they will be disinflationary for the rest of the world and pushing down growth.What does that mean for central banks? Well, outside of the U.S., central banks are going to see this as slowing aggregate demand, and so it's pretty clear what it is that they want to do. If they were hiking, they can stop hiking. If they were going to hold steady, they can lower rates a little bit. And if they were already lowering interest rates like the European Central Bank, well they can probably keep going with that without having to worry. And that's why we think the ECB is going to lower its policy rate to probably 1.5 percent and maybe even lower, which is below where the market is expecting things.Now for the Fed, things are much more tricky. The Fed cares about inflation, the Fed cares about U.S. growth, and both of those variables are going in the opposite direction of what they want over the rest of this forecast. Right now, inflation's too high for the Fed, and history shows that inflation goes up first with tariffs before the growth rate hits. So, the Fed's probably going to wait until the hard data show a bigger slowdown in the economy, a worsening. And the labor market. That is a bigger concern for them than the already too high inflation that is set to rise further over the rest of the year.Serena: And in your view, how does trade policy uncertainty influence business investment, particularly in export-oriented industries or in economies tightly linked to U.S. demand?Seth: Yeah. I think it has to be negative and therein lies one of the biggest challenges is just how negative. And I can't say for sure. But what we do know is that an uncertainty tends to be very negative for business investment spending decisions. If you're trying to make a decision, should I build a new factory?This is something that's going to have a long life to it, and you're going to get benefits hopefully for several years. How big are those benefits relative to the cost? Well, right now it's not at all clear, and so there's an option value to waiting.And we think that uncertainty is depressing investment decisions right now. I think it has to affect export-oriented industries. There's a lot of questions about what sort of retaliatory tariffs, other countries might impose.But it also affects domestic driven businesses because, well, they're going to have to see what their demand is. And some of the ones that are just focused on the U.S. economy are selling imported goods. So, it affects businesses across the board. Serena: Right. And how do U.S. tariff hikes spill over into emerging markets, and how might these countries buffer against these shocks?Seth: Yeah, I think there's a range of outcomes and the range is as wide as there are different countries. If you stay close to home. Take Mexico. Mexico is a big trading partner with the U.S. and early on in this whole tariff discussion, they were actually the targets of lots of tariff threats. That could have hurt them directly because there'd be less demand for their exports to the United States.Now we've got some resolution. We have the trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, and most of Mexico's exports to the U.S. are exempt under those conditions. However, the indirect effect is important as well. Mexico is very attached to the U.S. economy, and so as the U.S. economy slows because of these tariffs, the Mexican economy will slow as well.But there's also an indirect effect through currency markets, and I think this is a channel that's more broadly applicable across EM. If the Fed is going to be on hold, like we think holding interest rates higher for longer than the market might currently think, that means that EM central banks who might want to lower their policy rate to support their economy are going to be caught in a bit of a bind.They can't afford to take the risks that their currency will misbehave if they ease too much too far ahead of the Fed. And so, I think there is a little bit of a constraint for EM central banks, thinking about how much can I attend to domestic matters and how much do I have to pay attention to external matters?Serena: Now, I know forecasting economic growth is difficult in even the best of times, and this has been a period of exceptional volatility. How are you and your economic colleagues factoring all of this uncertainty?Seth: It's a great question and luminary minds like Neils Bohr, the Nobel Laureate in physics, and Yogi Berra, everyone's favorite prophet, have both said, ‘Forecasting is hard, especially about the future.' And this time, as you note, is even more so. So, what can we do? We try to come up with as many different scenarios as we can. We ask ourselves not just what's the most likely outcome, because there's uncertainty. The policy changes could come fast and furious. We also try to ask ourselves, if tariffs were to go back up from where they are now, how would that outcome turn out. If tariffs were to go away entirely, how would that turn out?You have to start thinking more and more, I think, in terms of scenarios.Serena:  And does this, in your view, change how much or how little investors should focus on the macro economy?Seth: Well, I think it means that investors have to focus every bit as much on the macro economy as they have in the past. I think it's undeniable that if we're right – and the U.S. economy slows down materially, and the global economy slows down with it – longer-term interest rates are probably going to come down along the lines of what our colleagues in interest rate strategy think. That makes a lot of sense to me. I think the trickier part though is knowing where the macro economy is going.We've got our forecast, but we are ready to make a revision if the facts change. And I think that's the trickier part for investors. The macro economy still matters but having a lot of conviction about where it's going, and as a result, what it means for asset prices? Well, that's the trickier part.Serena, you've been asking me lots of questions and they've been great questions, but I'm going to turn the table. I'm going to start asking questions right back to you.But we probably have to save that for another episode. So, let's pause it there.Serena: That sounds great Seth.Seth: And to the people listening, I want to say thanks for listening. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or a colleague today.

Leonora Buenviaje has been making women's clothes out of waste materials, usually dresses. She says wearing clothes made from waste materials can be both economical and look good. Leonora Buenviaje一直在用废物（通常是衣服）制作女士的衣服。 她说，穿着用废料制成的衣服既经济又看起来不错。 Buenviaje is 51-years-old and from Cainta in the Philippines, about 15 kilometers east of the capital Manilla. Buenviaje今年51岁，来自菲律宾的Cainta，在首都马尼拉以东约15公里处。 To make her dresses, she uses a foot-operated sewing machine to join together the waste materials. These include recycled newspapers, plastic wrapping and rice sacks. 为了制作她的衣服，她使用脚踏式缝纫机将废料结合在一起。 这些包括回收报纸，塑料包装和米袋。 Recycling is when something new is made from something that has been used before. 回收是在以前使用的东西制成的新事物时。 The process Buenviaje uses to join the materials together is called sewing. Sewing combines two pieces of cloth or is used to repair cloth. She creates new and beautiful clothes women can wear. They are sometimes completed with a piece called a headdress that goes on top of the head. Buenviaje用来将材料结合在一起的过程称为缝纫。 缝纫结合两块布或用于修理布。 她创造了女性可以穿的新衣服。 他们有时会用一个名为“头饰”的作品完成。 "The bubble wraps from delivery packages are nice looking and make for a good design, especially the black and white wraps," she said. Bubble wrap is a plastic product that is used to protect goods that are being delivered. She said white bubble wraps were good for making wedding dresses. 她说：“送货包装的气泡包装看起来很漂亮，并且可以设计出良好的设计，尤其是黑白包装。” 气泡包装是一种塑料产品，用于保护正在交付的商品。 她说，白色泡泡包装非常适合制作婚纱。 The dresses sell for between $30 to $50. They are used for everything from coming-of-age parties for a woman's 18th birthday, called debuts, to weddings. 这些礼服的售价在30至50美元之间。 它们用于从妇女的18岁生日的年龄段聚会到婚礼的所有事物。 In Asia, there is plenty of waste material for Buenviaje to work with: about 80 percent of the world ocean plastic is estimated to come from Asian rivers. A 2021 report by Oxford University's online publication, Our World in Data, found that the Philippines is responsible for one third of Asia's ocean plastic pollution. 在亚洲，Buenviaje可以使用大量废物：据估计，大约80％的世界海洋塑料来自亚洲河流。 牛津大学在线出版物《我们的数据世界》的一份报告发现，菲律宾造成了亚洲海洋塑料污染的三分之一。 "It's important to recycle or utilize used materials so we can help our earth," said Lalaine Alcalde, who buys clothes from Buenviaje. 从Buenviaje购买衣服的Lalaine Alcalde说：“回收或使用二手材料，以便我们可以帮助地球，这一点很重要。”Buenviaje said the recycled materials used for each dress depend on what her buyers are looking for. Buenviaje说，每件衣服使用的可回收材料取决于买家的需求。 She said her dresses are used in beauty competitions and are popular with young girls. 她说，她的礼服用于美容比赛，并受到年轻女孩的欢迎。 "I get delighted whenever they win, the designs are simple but they still win," she said. 她说：“每当他们获胜时，我都会感到高兴，这些设计很简单，但它们仍然赢了。”Buenviaje hopes in-person clothing shows called fashion shows and competitions that were stopped during the pandemic will begin again soon. Buenviaje希望在大流行期间停止的时装秀和比赛中的面对面的服装节目将很快开始。 She also aims to organize fashion shows herself to show and help others find ideas to create clothing out of recycled materials. 她还旨在组织时装秀，以展示并帮助其他人找到用回收材料创造服装的想法。

The US and China have agreed to a 90-day truce in the trade war, following negotiations in Geneva. As part of the deal, the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China will lower its duties on American goods from 125% to 10%. Markets have welcomed these developments, but key questions still remain about the implications for the economy and inflation. This uncertainty puts the Federal Reserve (Fed) in a tough spot, and we await more clarity on the Fed's direction from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on 15 May.   In Asia, the India–Pakistan conflict has calmed following a US-mediated ceasefire. We note that historically markets have typically recovered within a month of previous India-Pakistan conflicts, and continue to monitor key indicators such as the Indian Rupee and Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) flows, as well as geopolitical developments.   This episode is presented by Chintan Bhindora from the Julius Baer Research Asia team.

Today's Headlines: President Trump met with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to discuss trade, where Carney affirmed Canada's status as the U.S.'s largest trading partner despite Trump's contrary claims. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent admitted that the U.S. has yet to start formal trade talks with China, even as Trump downplayed the impact of not trading. In Asia, China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN formed a financial stability agreement, while India launched missile strikes in Kashmir following a massacre of Hindu tourists, escalating tensions with Pakistan. Domestically, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faced backlash over his use of Signal for sensitive communications amid reports of a government archiving tool hack. Hegseth also announced cuts to senior military ranks, reducing four-star officers by 20%. In a surprising move, the Trump administration sought to dismiss a lawsuit limiting access to the abortion pill mifepristone. The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 to temporarily allow Trump's transgender military ban, affecting over 4,000 service members. Meanwhile, the Vatican conclave began, as 133 cardinals gathered to elect a new Pope, needing a two-thirds majority to win. Resources/Articles mentioned in this episode: CNN: Trump's Oval Office meeting with Carney didn't reach Zelensky-level tension. But it wasn't all neighborliness Fox: US has yet to launch trade negotiations with China, Treasury secretary says Reuters: Japan, China, South Korea, ASEAN enhance regional financial safety net  The Guardian: Kashmir crisis live: India missile attack kills eight; Pakistan official says two Indian fighter jets shot down WSJ: Hegseth Used Multiple Signal Chats for Official Pentagon Business Axios: Signal archiving tool Trump officials used suspends services after hack claims  NY Times: Trump Administration Asks Court to Dismiss Abortion Pill Case NBC News: Supreme Court allows Trump to implement transgender military ban Reuters: Cardinals enter seclusion ahead of secret conclave to elect new pope  Morning Announcements is produced by Sami Sage and edited by Grace Hernandez-Johnson Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

 I saw a shocking video about an unsuccessful suicide attempt, Jumping from the Golden Gate bridge in San Francisco …Every guy who had over lived this jump, (from 2000 only 20 guys survived) regret that they have jumped from the Golden Gate bridge… On average for one suicide 115 people are suffering.All suicide candidates think that nobody is caring for them….And here is something wrong and dam wrong….If somebody is in depression or is a drama magnet, then we read, again and again, we should: 1. Leave this guy because he/she can pull us down.2. He/she is a burden.3. He/She is a hindrance for our courier.4. That are his/her problems.5. He/she is negative, and we should only be around positive people…And the guys who are writing these kinds of articles will also get in deep depression as everybody else… Because everybody will have some deep crises in their life. If you don't care about your friends and family when they are in deep crises.- What kind of person are you? What happens if this guy is taking suicide?I have prevented quite a lot of suicides… Always, I was angry with the family or friends of that suicide victim because they didn't care for him/her.When you want to prevent suicide: First, build up trust.Second, care for him/her, and show compassion.Third, hear what he is saying and ask questions.Forth, let him/her speak as much as possible!!!!!Fifth, in the end, you can say something meaningful!Sixth, never expect a Thank You because you have hindered him/her to do what he/she wanted!In Asia and Australia, we have a 10 times higher suicide rate than in Europe… Because in Europe we have a better-created suicide prevention system…If we have no Suicide prevention system in our country, we have to help ….Money, wealth or success is not everything… Good relationships are much better.In a good relationship, we help our Friends/family in their crises. My Video: Why Suicide? https://youtu.be/0MveTpaS3UIMy Audio: https://divinesuccess.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/Podcast.B/Why-Suicide.mp3

S&P futures are pointing to a softer open, down (0.6%). European equities are mostly softer in early trades with only the FTSE 100 trading higher. In Asia, equities traded mixed as Greater China markets rallied after the Labor Day holiday, while Australia, Taiwan, and India posted losses amidst thin trading volumes. Asian currencies retreated Tuesday as the dollar stabilized and authorities dismissed speculation that forex movements were linked to tariff negotiations or a regional currency accord. Companies Mentioned: Doordash, Google

The ASX 200 started the week giving back 80 points to 8158 (1%) as the bank rally faded post WBC results. Slightly underwhelming and lack of growth to blame. WBC fell 3.0% taking CBA down 1.6% and the Big Bank Basket down to $265.29 (1.7%). MQG followed the other lower down 1.8% ahead of numbers Friday. Other financials gave up early gains, with RPL and XYZ, two of the only winners. REITs also slipped led by GMG down 2.2% and MGR off 0.9% with industrials also weaker. Retail sagged, PMV down 3.4% and APE off 3.1% with MYR down 3.5%. Defensives such as TLS slid 1.1% and REA down 1.8%. Resources held up better with BHP down only 0.9% and RIO off 0.9% despite rising Iron ore prices in Singapore. Gold miners were mixed, GOR jumped 9.4% on the takeover by Goldfields, NST up 0.4% and EVN up 2.1% with BGL rallying 2.2%. Lithium stocks were flat, LYC up 1.8% and oil and gas stocks crumbling in the face of oils fall. WDS down 3.6% and STO off 4.0%. Uranium stocks mixed, NXG down 4.6% and BOE up 0.8%. In corporate news, TYR pulled out of SMP talks, PLY dumped after CEO retires wounded. RWC warned on tariffs and fell 2.4% with EDV forecasting flat to modest retail sales growth. Nothing on the economic front. In Asia, China and Japan closed for a holiday. 10-year yields pushing higher to 4.26%.Want to invest with Marcus Today? The Managed Strategy Portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there have been some unusual events overnight. And that's putting it mildly.Canadians are voting in federal elections, ones where the winner will need to tackle a weird US administration. The US president injected himself into the campaign at the last minute with a claim Canadians should vote for him to make Canada the 51st state of the US. There are no exit polls yet, but it is likely to steel Canadians to reject the call in record numbers whatever the result is.The clear instability of the Trump action saw Wall Street fall almost immediately but has recovered slightly since. There are nerves on Wall Street about some impending Big Tech results out soon too.In the real world, Canadian wholesale sales slipped -0.3% in March.In the US, the Dallas Fed factory survey dived to its worst level since the pandemic, and before that its worst level since early 2016. The fall was worst in new orders. Inflation rose. Confidence in the future weakened. The US oil patch isn't a happy place.In Europe, we should probably note that there has been a major electricity grid failure in Spain and Portugal with much of the country blacked out, although service is now being restored.Separately, a key ECB figure said the European Central Bank may cut interest rates below the neutral level that keeps the economy in balance. He said euro zone inflation may come in lower than expected as a result of American tariff actions and require the much looser settings.In Asia, India said its industrial production rose +3.0% in March from a year ago, similar to the slowdown reported in February, a lot more tamer than the expansion rate has been recently although back to its long term average. This is not evidence their economy is booming from manufacturing.In China, their centr5al bank is signaling that both rate cuts and reserve ratio cuts are on their to-do list "at the right time". Both will boost liquidity and shore up any economic wavering.Singapore's unemployment rate ticked up a little, but only from an historically low level and only back to its long-run level.Singapore has a national election on Saturday, May 3. No surprise is expected in a contest closely controlled by the ruling party.Australia's federal election is on the same day and that outcome is a lot more uncertain.Australia is one of very few countries to have a AAA credit rating from Moody's, S&P, and Fitch. Now analysts at S&P are openly concerned about the cost of election promises in light of their budget forecasts that earlier showed long-term deficits rising. Election victory might be a bit of a poisoned chalice if it also comes with a downgrade, higher debt servicing costs and rising deficits. Public policy choices then become very hard, very necessary, and very unpopular.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.21%, down -4 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3336/oz, and up +US$17 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$1 at just under US$62/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is down a bit more, now just over US$65.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.6 USc, unchanged from Saturday at this time. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we also down -30 bps at 52.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just on 67.7 and down -30 bps as well.The bitcoin price starts today little-changed at US$94,137 and down just -0.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.4%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the April jobs report and big tech earnings. In the UK – a look ahead to local elections. In Asia – a look ahead to China PMI data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the April jobs report and big tech earnings. In the UK – a look ahead to local elections. In Asia – a look ahead to China PMI data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the April jobs report and big tech earnings. In the UK – a look ahead to local elections. In Asia – a look ahead to China PMI data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to home sales data and Tesla earnings. In the UK – a look ahead to how companies across Europe and beyond are preparing to share their latest financial performances with the market. In Asia – a look ahead to how some Chinese companies are looking to skirt U.S President Donald Trump’s tariffs. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to home sales data and Tesla earnings. In the UK – a look ahead to how companies across Europe and beyond are preparing to share their latest financial performances with the market. In Asia – a look ahead to how some Chinese companies are looking to skirt U.S President Donald Trump’s tariffs. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to home sales data and Tesla earnings. In the UK – a look ahead to how companies across Europe and beyond are preparing to share their latest financial performances with the market. In Asia – a look ahead to how some Chinese companies are looking to skirt U.S President Donald Trump’s tariffs. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S Retail sales and earnings from Netflix. In the UK – a look ahead to next week’s ECB meeting. In Asia – a look ahead to earnings from TSMC. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Global financial markets remain on edge after a rebound from the 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs for most countries except China. In this episode, we discuss the path forward for negotiations with US trade partners. We also discuss Europe's changing stance to negotiate rather than retaliate, and the ECB looking set to cut again next week. In Asia, we outline the posture from Beijing, with the Q1 GDP data also on tap.  We end with a special segment with Rob Subbaraman, Head of Global Macro Research, who offers his perspectives on major global questions, including how damaging the ‘tariff shock' could be on global growth, and possible reasons behind the on-going decline in US asset prices. Chapters: US (02:08), Europe (07:30), China (12:25), Rest of Asia (17:48), Tariffs (19:16).  

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S Retail sales and earnings from Netflix. In the UK – a look ahead to next week’s ECB meeting. In Asia – a look ahead to earnings from TSMC. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S Retail sales and earnings from Netflix. In the UK – a look ahead to next week’s ECB meeting. In Asia – a look ahead to earnings from TSMC. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – an eco look ahead post Trump-tariffs, and also a discussion on how the retail sector may be impacted. In the UK – a look at the BOE’s quarterly report on the stability of the UK's financial system. In Asia – a look at President Trump’s additional 34% tariff on Chinese goods and how that may impact U.S, China relations. Also, a look at how tariffs will impact U.S, Australia relations. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – an eco look ahead post Trump-tariffs, and also a discussion on how the retail sector may be impacted. In the UK – a look at the BOE’s quarterly report on the stability of the UK's financial system. In Asia – a look at President Trump’s additional 34% tariff on Chinese goods and how that may impact U.S, China relations. Also, a look at how tariffs will impact U.S, Australia relations. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

President Trump hails his tariff blitz on Liberation Day. U.S. markets fall in extended trade as investors rush to safe havens, fearing the swathe of levies imposed by Washington could spark a global trade war. In Asia, the Nikkei slumps to an 8-month low and the tariff effects are felt across South-East Asian markets. China slams the move as ‘unilateral bullying' and Canada pledges retaliation. The EU's response is measured for now. EC President Ursula Von Der Leyen says the bloc is still committed to negotiation. We hear from TotalEnergie CEO Patrick Pouyanné and Leonardo CEO Roberto Cingolani who remain upbeat that the trade conflict could be beneficial to Europe. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Starlink di Elon Musk sta entrando, o provando a entrare, in tanti mercati asiatici. Alcune condizioni favoriscono l'azienda di Musk, altre sono un ostacolo. In Asia del resto Musk ha grandi estimatori, critici e ormai anche concorrenti. Gli inserti audio della puntata sono tratti da: Starlink Operation is Illegal in Niue, Tv Niue, 26 luglio 2024; Glen Jackson, Niue Musician and Entrepreneur, Pacific Mornings, 7 agosto 2024; Musk's Starlink gets green light from India, success hinges on two billionaires, canale Youtube Cnbc, 21 marzo 2025;  Elon Musk Meets PM Modi, Plans Tesla's Entry Into India, Expresses Gratitude For Support, canale YouTube Business Today, 21 giugno 2023; Elon Musk News | Musk X Sues Indian Government | Elon Musk's X Sues Centre, Alleges Censorship, Not, 20 marzo 2025; বাংলাদেশি প্রতিষ্ঠানের সঙ্গে কাজ শুরু করেছে স্টারলিংক, canale YouTube Somoy tv, 23 marzo 2025. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.• In the US – a preview of US March jobs and a look at the potential impact of auto tariffs. • In the UK – an assessment of NATO's position amid growing global tensions.• In Asia – a preview of the Reserve Bank of Australia's next rate decision. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week.• In the US – a preview of US March jobs and a look at the potential impact of auto tariffs. • In the UK – an assessment of NATO's position amid growing global tensions.• In Asia – a preview of the Reserve Bank of Australia's next rate decision. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What makes crypto so different in the East and the West?In the U.S. and Europe, teams typically focus on building the foundation: rollups, restaking, scaling solutions. In Asia, markets drive adoption, trading volume, and unique market trends.We sat with YQ, founder of AltLayer, to dive deeper. Western builders think ahead, prioritizing scalability and decentralization. Eastern markets excel at liquidity, with efficient capital flow and rapidly emerging trends.This global dynamic shapes both development and investment strategies. Understanding it is essential for anyone interested in crypto.Join The Rollup Edge: https://members.therollup.coWebsite: https://therollup.co/Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1P6ZeYd..Podcast: https://therollup.co/category/podcastFollow us on X: https://www.x.com/therollupcoFollow Rob on X: https://www.x.com/robbie_rollupFollow Andy on X: https://www.x.com/ayyyeandyJoin our TG group: https://t.me/+8ARkR_YZixE5YjBhThe Rollup Disclosures: https://therollup.co/the-rollup-discl

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a preview of U.S CPI and PCE data, along with a look at the impact of tariffs on housing. In the UK – a preview of UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ spring statement. In Asia – a preview of Chinese EV Maker BYD’s earnings. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Financial markets have been difficult to navigate, with equity markets bouncing from their recent lows but still seeing sizable intraday swings. Interest rates seem to be similarly caught between potential upside inflation risks from some sources, and challenging growth dynamics on the other. And all of this comes ahead of the April 2nd tariff announcements from the US which also have the potential to jolt markets further. In Europe, we look for further signs that German's fiscal reform is feeding into stronger growth expectations, while the UK's fiscal room looks more constrained. In Asia, we discuss likely policy responses in Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore. Chapters: US (02:08), Europe (11:05), Asia (15:31).

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a preview of U.S CPI and PCE data, along with a look at the impact of tariffs on housing. In the UK – a preview of UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ spring statement. In Asia – a preview of Chinese EV Maker BYD’s earnings. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A Walk In the Park  & Aya's Finest Hour.Book 3 in 18 parts, By FinalStand. Listen to the ► Podcast at Explicit Novels.Professional, conscript, or volunteer, they all have run away from battle.A Note on terminology and the metaphor of Cael's WorldThe terms Weave of Fate and 'Weave ' are interchangeable. Weave expresses the intersection ~ the sieve that all the possible futures entered to create what we perceive as this 'now'. Fate is the keeper of the sieve. The Present is what is happening right now. It is that infinitesimal which we interpret as Reality.The Legend is what happens when the present is pulled back through the weave and becomes the past. It is called the Legend because, as the former presents fade into the past, they blur; each becomes less precise and more open to interpretations. (It is as if you were looking at one thing through a prism; as you shift your stance, what you see appears to change.) Within the Legend exist mystic creatures, divinities, demons, spirits, all the Paradises and Hells.The Endless Black Sands is the final resting place for all failed legends. It is the place where all is forgotten until even former realities break down into the Black Sands. That Alal found a way to cheat this doom and retrieved Shammuramat, was truly remarkable; even though Fate 'balanced accounts' with him by sending Ajax and his war band along that path as well.If you wonder how that was a balancing, consider this:The only people Alal cares for (in his own brutal fashion) are Shammy, now Sakura, and his only true offspring in 5,000 years, Cáel.Fate sent Ajax.With Ajax available to test Cáel, how could Alal resist the temptation to place one of the planet's greatest killer on a collision course with both of his loves in order to test Cáel?The Veil is a function of the Weave that protects sentient perception from perceiving the Weave and disguises the otherness of creatures of legend, unless they willingly allow themselves to be seen, which they usually do only so they can 'physically' interact with the Present. Some sentient minds, through horrific trauma such as the Augurs' self- poisonings, through the quirks of Fate via Holy Men, Mad Prophets and Doomsayers such as Temujin, or through the touch of legends such as Ishara, can sense the fluctuations in the Veil and the things behind it. Cáel, in truth, has been shaped by all three vehicles (Ishara, the Augurs and Temujin's legend.)Oblivion is what awaits Reality if the Weave ever fails beyond its ability to heal itself. This threat is what keeps the creatures of legend from constantly traversing the Weave. They have to weaken the Weave to do so or to use powers in Reality, the greater the distortion they create, the greater the weakening that occurs.End Note(Two days ago, with thirty days left)"That was fantastic, Lady Yum-Yum," I sighed."What did you just call me?" she panted softly. We were naked in one of our Task Force bedrooms that was actually used for sleeping, and now sex. I was still pressed against her reposed body, despite our recent exertions. She was on her stomach, arms stretched down her sides.She was sweaty and short of breath. She still had her wits about her and an awareness of our situation: victory sex, me still aroused and her fingernails scratching my thighs and buttocks. My equally sticky body was pressing down on her, even though I supported my weight with outstretched hands placed on either side of her shoulders."Lady Yum-Yum," I mumbled as I kissed the back of her head. "That was the first thing that sprang to mind when you introduced yourself." I could see her working that through her highly complex mind."When writing your memoirs, please remember to me refer to me that way," she began to flex her thighs and abdominal muscles, so that her ass was pumping against my hips."Only if this helps persuade you to give me a repeat performance.""I'll consider,," she purred, then paused to catch her breathe. "You are in phenomenal shape, young man. Do any of your other lady-loves have pet names?""Nope," I grunted as I withdrew.She had teased me with anal sex hints repeatedly, yet never delivered. She liked the game and the power she wielded. My body being on top of hers was only an illusion of a tactical advantage. She knew me pretty well already. I wasn't the kind of guy who would use physical strength to overwhelm her vulnerable position. This being so, a cerebral skirmish only excited her more.We waged a war that was based on intakes of breath, the shimmying of muscles and the trembling of fatigued flesh. The prize for me was the winning. Lady Fathom Worthington-Burke played tricky-clever, but I was better. And at times like this, she admitted it. She gave me what I wanted. I rolled her.Straight, face-to-face fucking. The Lady's pulsar gaze trapped my vision. She smiled, grudgingly at first, then more and more sensually as my glans returned to her g-spot that it had scouted out earlier. This was 'surrender by the Fathom method'. She gave me what I wanted, so I took what I wanted, and pleasured her at the same time."Mmm, you are a bad, bad boy," she lapsed into her trashy West-End Londoner accent. It was perfect and an erotic whiplash when added to her native, refined manner of speech. This wasn't a trick this time, it was a treat. It was a gift, reciprocated. The tactile sensation of her cervix becoming a soft, spongey chalice for my final penetrations was icing on an all-so-luscious cake.I tendered her a tribute worthy of my first love, Dr. Kimberly Geisler. It was strange to find a woman like her. Outside of Kimberly, I had found only one other woman who graciously offered her ultimate pleasure paean to the hundreds of lovers who had become before. That other woman, it still floored me, was Buffy Du, no, Buffy Ishara, First of my House."Oh!" and several heartbeats later, "Cáel!" several hissed series of breathes and then, "Goddess! You are better than good!"Two thoughts collided within me:A) I had never seen a more controlled orgasmic explosion in my life. I was going to have to tell Buffy about this, once we were safely in bed. If it was office talk, she'd punch me through a window and that would make Aya cry. I couldn't have that.B) Goddess? I thought she was Anglican. This needed further study. This treatment was really nice. I leaned in, kissed her. Lady Yum-Yum smiled. "Take me to the shower. Play time is over, Cáel," and she was back to all business."You are treating me like a fleshy vibrator," I pointed out."But you are a very finely-trained, fleshy vibrator, you wonderful boy," she stroked my cheek. "Shower! Now!" So, like a Good Boy, International Merchant of Death and Chosen Son of a Divine Amazon Goddess, I slid off her, then cradled her in my arms as I rose from our totally trashed mattress.I didn't smile when it was confirmed that I wasn't carrying her out of any romantic after-coitus gesture. She couldn't walk. Woot! It took a bit of effort to get us into the walk-in shower and to get the water just perfect, all while keeping her cradled. She helped out by keeping her arms tightly around my neck."Cheeky bastard," she whispered in my ear. "You are gloating." Then she nibbled on my earlobe for good measure."Damn right," I did gloat as I let her slide down to her feet. "You are pretty sweet for an Old Chick." She wasn't angry, oh no."If you were trying to get me to say, 'I'll get you next time," she licked, nipped and sucked on my nipple as if I was the one with the mammaries in this relationship, "it worked." Double-Woot! I was going to get that damn four-way! I did coax a vigorous shower-quickie out of my Lady. Afterward, she shifted herself so she could get under one of the steaming showerheads."Cáel, why didn't you use a condom," she mused. Gak!"You aren't on Birth Control?" I panicked. She laughed at me."No. I've never been a fan of hormones replacement. I like the way I am. Do you expect the women to do all the anti-pregnancy measures?""No," I gulped."Don't' be so worried," she laughed. "We had unprotected sex one time. The odds are astronomical that an 'oops' happened, right?" Yes, it was a single sexual encounter, but included three firings of the one-eyed hydra, sigh."You are asking a man who has five children on the way, Fathom," I cautioned her."Oh, I'll update my files and make an appointment to seen a local, reliable O B G Y N," she slipped back into her unflappable British resolve. "Get along. I need to get cleaned up," she cupped my scrotum, ", again. So scoot." I scooted.I had updated my condom supply despite the forbiddance Dot Ishara, my Matron Goddess, beamed to me from the Other Side. She could only complain so much. I'd upped my selection of fortune cookies and added a fresh raisin chocolate brownie for my next visit with her. I had to get over to the other side of the floor to get a fresh shirt, and boxers.Yum-Yum had ripped off my shirt (a little kinky) and boxers (a little painful). I wasn't going commando, so I decided to quick step it before something important happened that required me to yank yet another solution out of my sexually-fueled creative imagination.How Lady Yum-Yum and I ended up in bedThe Secret Societies' long awaited war had begun in Africa and in India. The Amazons couldn't effectively reinforce these two homeland regions. No, my people's edge came from my stupid stunts (e.g., the fight outside that club in Chicago), the judicious application of a few kind words and a whole lot of targeted killing on my part along with that of my Amazons.Those actions convinced the Booth-gan (aka the Thuggee, but we no longer say that because it irritates them) and the Coils of the Serpent to toss in their lot with their local Amazons. They did the whole 'hostage exchange' thing as well. Two children from each side. That was a no-brainer on my part. All three concerned parties were willing to let their adults die if necessary. Their children were another matter.In Asia, the Seven Pillars had made only minimal progress. We now suspected the 7P had planned to roll over the three of the 9 Clans that were in their Sphere of Influence, the now 6 Ninja Families, the Black Lotus and the Booth-gan in rapid succession. A preemptive strike against both the Khanate and the Ninja were supposed to cripple those two factions.Against the Khanate, that had been a dismal failure. In Nippon, the Ninja were in dire straits and would be decades recovering from the original 7P blitz. But the combination of US black ops help and the infusion of Amazons and Okinawans had staved off extinction for the moment. Strategically, these failed actions were tying down 7P resources that the largest Secret Society had planned to move elsewhere.In China, the Black Lotus exhibited the same resilience and deceptiveness they'd shown in combating the Seven Pillars by themselves for the past 65 years. The chaos gripping the PRC was a blessing from the Ancestors, the four sacred spirits (lung/dragons, phoenix, unicorn and tortoise), and the nine entities (I now really had to know this stuff.) Word that a 'dragon' had appeared in the West had only heightened their desire to aid in our new alliance.Those factors meant a reprieve for India. As the 7 Pillars began ramping up their operations; increasing racial tensions, minor terrorist action and military and industrial sabotage; the Booth-gan and Amazon united resources and purpose. The Booth-gan would assassinate 7P operatives and pawns while the Amazons would hit 7P front companies and businesses based out of the People's Republic of China. (This activity also helped ratchet up India-PRC tensions and anti-PRC public sentiment in India.)In Africa, the Condotteiri had squandered precious hours reallocating resources before launching their assaults. Like everyone but the 7P, they had been caught flat-footed by the renewal of the Secret War. The Coils of the Serpent had never been overly antagonistic toward the Condos, since their interests rarely collided. The same went for the Coils and the Amazons.Two factors inspired a deep Amazon-Coil bond. They were both groups with deep African roots and a shared Central-Western African spirituality. Added to that was the growing power of the Coils of the Serpent in the past fifty years. Their main opponents had been the Illuminati who had a Eurocentric view. Pan-Africanism was in the Coil's best interest, but ran contrary to European economic interests.Long term, allying with the African Amazons was a good investment for the Coils. The 9 Clans relationships had already proved to be advantageous on multiple occasions in the past. The leaders of the Coils knew their power was rising with the fortunes of Sub-Saharan Africa. To them, the rise of the PRC and the Seven Pillars was a looming threat in the East.They had been handed a golden opportunity to deal with this enemy before the enemy was ready to deal with them. They had been 'gifted' with over 2000 highly-skilled, fanatical Amazon warriors as stealthy muscle to add to their own, more subtle arsenal. For the Amazons, it was access to continent wide clandestine intelligence network that could unmask their enemies' hiding places.The Condotteiri wiped out an Amazon freehold in Cameroon and a few Coils safe houses in Lagos, Nigeria. In the Republic of Mali, over 250 Condo mercenaries were slaughtered at a 'secret' installation and their armory was looted. Ebola kept breaking out in the West. The dominant regional powers, the Republic of the Congo and Nigeria, were tottering as a result of decades of economic mismanagement, civic, ethnic, tribal and religious strife, corruption and unreliable militaries.The scene was ripe for a secret conflict as well as public carnage. For the Joint International Khanate Interim Taskforce (JIKIT), this presented a dilemma. They were involved with a growing global struggle that went far beyond the Khanate and Central Asia. Their secret society allies strenuously objected to bringing any more 'outsider' people into the group.Handing over covert intelligence to other governmental agencies in the US and UK, then telling them they wouldn't divulge their sources went over like scuba diving with cement goulashes. Explaining to upper level bigwigs that they had a 'trust-based' team went nowhere. Those officials didn't care about a bunch of domestic/international criminals' sensibilities.They wanted names and faces. They wanted addresses, phone taps and bank account numbers. It would all be 'Secret', 'Top Secret', or 'Eyes Only'. It would all be vulnerable to all kinds of governmental subpoenas too. No threats were made from 'my' side. They'd killed more people than the Black Death and the lives of a few thousand bureaucrats (and their families) in London and Washington D.C. didn't mean shit to them.Selena did offer to kidnap some family members to get the message across. Javiera put her hands over her ears and began singing 'la-la-la' as she stormed out of the room. Lady Fathom suggested that we arrange a private meeting with the UK Prime Minister and the US President. It took a few seconds for Mehmet and Javiera to realize she wasn't kidding.That was a nearly impossible task, which on this taskforce meant we had to give it a shot. Let's just say that the US Attorney General, Eric Holder and Chairman John Jay of the British Joint Intelligence Committee thought their respective representative had lost her God-damn mind. I went to the Khanate for help.Twenty-four hours later Azerbaijan, Turkey, Tajikistan, Armenia and Georgia (yes, two tiny Christian nations) joined the Khanate. The integration of the first two nations had been in the works since the formation of the Turkic Council in 2009. For me, Temujin upped the time table strictly for our benefit. Turkey and Azerbaijan became the two newest states within the Khanate.The third, Tajikistan was different and the shakiest addition. The unoccupied title of 'Khwarazm Shah' was created, suggesting the Iranian Tajiks had a special status inside the Khanate. 'Khwarazm' referenced the Khwarazmian dynasty that ruled the last of the great, Persian-led, Iranian Super-States and dated back to the 13th century AD. 'Shah' was Persian for King.The announced status of Armenia and Georgia was quite a bit different. They become 'Protectorates', i.e., semi-autonomous states within the Khanate who were 'vassal' states, responsible only to the Great Khan and his personal representative in the region (ah, that would be me.)So, the first three entries made sense, strong geographic, ethnic and/or religious ties, plus this was part of the Khanate's agenda anyway. But Armenia and Georgia? That was the doing of the other regional secret society, the Hashashin.The Caucasus Mountains were the backyard of the Hashashin. They knew who to blackmail, pinch and kill to make the 'take-over' possible. The main stumbling block was the long Khanate-Hashashin history: the Mongols had destroyed the historical stronghold of the Hashashin, Alamut, in 1256 CE. In a way, that disaster had transformed the sect, making it move away from their strict Nizārī Ismaili roots and into a more ethnically and religiously diverse group that was centered in the Caucasus region.Temujin made it clear to this group that he was making a deal under my auspices. Both Armenia and, Georgia (as well as the future Kurdistan, his plans for the creation of that last state were told to me under condition of secrecy) would be part of my palatinate principality (along with Hungary, if we ever got there). Riki Martin defined the terms for me: I was the voice of those three regions in the Khan's court.They wouldn't have to deal with Muslim Khanate officials. They would deal with me and 'my officials'. If the Khanate had a problem with my principality, they came to me to resolve the issue. That translated to me giving a nod to the existing regimes ruling in Armenia and Georgia (along with the infusion of a few Hashashin supporters.)Publically the future of those three political and ethnic entities would be confirmed later. The existing governments knew three things.1) I was that madman who had led the charge in Romania, clearly a man of bravery and humility. The odds were good that I was going to be a man they could rely on to adequately represent their interests with the government that currently mattered the most (aka The Khanate.)2) The Great Khan thought the world of me and in this nascent New World Order that meant way more than membership in NATO, or begging the United Nations to apply sanctions of dubious value.3) There would be a change of leadership by about 2040. Children of excellent ethnic parentage would succeed me in this ceremonial role in the region. These new princes and princesses would be the scions of the line of Nyilas and representatives of the various states (translation: I was going to be sexing it up with Georgian, Armenian and Kurdish members of the Hashashin).That would establish the three 'cadet' branches of House Ishara (Nyilas) (which I've listed because all three alphabets are so freaking beautiful) that could weave the Amazons, 9 Clans and the varying ethnic identities into a quilt that could stand together as a force in the Great Khan's inner circle. This new spate of aristocratic, 'Archer'-themed lineages would be:1.       Moisari, in Georgia.2.       Aġeġnajig, in Armenia.3.       Ram- alsham, in Kurdistan.This fiction made the key named entities happy. The combination of all these events applied another jolt to the heart of the global power structure (after all, Turkey was in NATO) and made the US and UK governments back off.By tidying up the world map, we'd brought our governmental chiefs to the chilling revelation that their sole conduit for insider information regarding the ongoing global calamity had reacted to their intransience by simply letting them be blind-sided by events. After the fact, Javiera and Lady Fathom relayed that message very clearly.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a preview of next week’s Fed decision and earnings from FedEx. In the UK – a preview of Morgan Stanley’s European Financials Conference. In Asia – a preview of Tencent earnings and the next BOJ decision. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a preview of next week’s Fed decision and earnings from FedEx. In the UK – a preview of Morgan Stanley’s European Financials Conference. In Asia – a preview of Tencent earnings and the next BOJ decision. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a preview of U.S CPI and PPI data, along with earnings from Oracle and Adobe. In the UK – a preview of European Central Bank Chief Christine Lagarde addressing central bankers. In Asia – a recap of China’s NPC and outlook for its’ economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a preview of U.S CPI and PPI data, along with earnings from Oracle and Adobe. In the UK – a preview of European Central Bank Chief Christine Lagarde addressing central bankers. In Asia – a recap of China’s NPC and outlook for its’ economy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Investors have a lot to digest. With US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China now in force – along with some retaliatory measures from affected countries – US Commerce Secretary Lutnick hinted that the US may reconsider some tariffs. Meanwhile, in Europe, the European Commission and Germany have unveiled plans to significantly increase defence spending. In Asia, all eyes are on China's National People's Congress, where the government has set an economic growth target of around 5% for 2025. No wonder global equity markets are experiencing volatility this week, and bond markets are no less turbulent. Joining us to shed light on the latest developments in fixed income is Dario Messi, our Head of Fixed Income Research. We're also joined by Richard Tang, our Head of Research in Hong Kong, for expert analysis on the National People's Congress.00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)00:37 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)06:20 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)10:48 China's NPC news: Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)16:48 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a preview of the February jobs report and a look at earnings from Macys and Gap. In the UK – a preview of the 'Special European Council.' In Asia – a look ahead to economic data in Australia, and a discussion on China’s tech rally. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a preview of the February jobs report and a look at earnings from Macys and Gap. In the UK – a preview of the 'Special European Council.' In Asia – a look ahead to economic data in Australia, and a discussion on China’s tech rally. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a preview of preview PCE, and personal spending data, and Nvidia earnings. In the UK – a preview of the next G20 summit. In Asia – a look at the evolving relationship between Washington and Beijing. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a preview of preview PCE, and personal spending data, and Nvidia earnings. In the UK – a preview of the next G20 summit. In Asia – a look at the evolving relationship between Washington and Beijing. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

While the US labour market remains resilient despite a modest increase in initial jobless claims, concerns are growing about a potential stagflation scenario in the US. Meanwhile, in Europe, eurozone consumer sentiment improved slightly in February, albeit from a low base, and UK retail sales beat expectations. In Asia, markets digested news that Japan's inflation rate hit a two-year high of 4%, but Alibaba's robust quarterly earnings boosted Chinese stocks. Joining us today are Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, with a deep dive on currencies and metals, and Cheng Hin Saw, Head of Equities Specialists Asia, with insights on China.00:00 Introduction by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)00:41 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)07:25 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)11:53 Update on China: Cheng Hin Saw (Head of Equities Specialists Asia)16:41 Closing remarks by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Friday was a mixed bag for Europe's and America's main indices, but they still saw gains on the week. The Munich Security Conference gained more attention than usual as the world awaits a solution for Ukraine. As of Friday it seemed that Ukraine and Europe would be left out of negotiations to end the war, but since then US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that both Ukraine and Europe will be part of any ‘real negotiations'. In Asia, Japan's GDP has risen a surprising 2.8% year-on-year, well above expectations, and China's President Xi Jinping has met with Chinese entrepreneurs at a symposium, signalling his support of the private sector. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, provides his perspective on China's tech rally as well as his assessment on the Swiss franc.00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)00:28 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)07:33 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)10:17 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Simon Chen has a heart to train evangelists in Asia. He lives in Taiwan and leads Asia Revival Ministry, which aims to train and equip Chinese evangelists to prepare for a "great harvest" in China and other Chinese-speaking nations. Today on the Evangelism Podcast we discuss what God did on one of his recent outreaches in Japan. We talk about the cultural differences in Asia compared to other regions of the world  . In Asia people are more reserved and shy about evangelism and it is important to train them and to restore their identity in Christ.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look at U.S housing data and earnings from the EV maker Rivian. In the UK – a look at upcoming German elections. In Asia – a look ahead to earnings from Alibaba and economic data in South Korea. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look at U.S housing data and earnings from the EV maker Rivian. In the UK – a look at upcoming German elections. In Asia – a look ahead to earnings from Alibaba and economic data in South Korea. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look at U.S CPI and Retail sales data, along with quarterly earnings from McDonalds. In the UK – a look at a summit on artificial intelligence taking place in Paris. In Asia – a look at the potential fallout of Donald Trump's trade war with China. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look at U.S CPI and Retail sales data, along with quarterly earnings from McDonalds. In the UK – a look at a summit on artificial intelligence taking place in Paris. In Asia – a look at the potential fallout of Donald Trump's trade war with China. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's been another big week, with the news on DeepSeek rattling global equity markets, led by the tech sector. The Fed's on-hold decision came and went as expected, however we have made an important change to our Fed forecasts. Coming up, the US employment report will be key to watch, alongside hints on whether tariffs will soon be implemented. Elsewhere, we have the BOE decision where a cut is widely expected, while activity data in Europe could again remain weak. In Asia, the spotlight is on India with a likely pivotal central bank decision on tap, just a few days after the government's FY26 budget was unveiled. Chapters: US (02:12), Europe (08:02), Asia (12:21).

On this episode of the Scouting For Growth podcast, Sabine VdL talks to a panel of global experts to explore the bold new frontiers shaping insurance technology in 2025 and beyond, including microinsurance in Africa, digital disruption in Latin America, the evolving tech scene in the US, Asia, Europe and the UK. KEY TAKEAWAYS AI cannot just be something we add on top of existing infrastructure, there needs to be some re-work to integrate it into existing infrastructure. Foundation for AI scalability and security (not as a bolt-on) will be a big trend. The second thing is generative AI that’s across ecosystem. There is a trend emerging and growing in InsurTech in Europe at least around emerging risks. 20% of all the deals done in 2024 were around that specific topic. Most of the startups in this area are in the pricing/underwriting part of the value chain. There is a need for these with emerging risks that didn’t exist (or weren’t as prevalent) in the past, such as climate change or electric vehicles. In Asia, especially South-East Asia, the markets are way more green field than they are in the US. Here, embedded insurance and ecosystem integration are a really big deal. As people get onto external ecosystems outside of their own they want to embed insurance in them across sectors. We don’t think insurance just in the insurance space is enough. There’s a lot of brain drain in Africa where skilled professionals are leaving the continent. But the paradox of that is that there’s a lot of influx onto the continent. The questions is: Where exactly do the opportunities lie? There’s a lot of grown happening in the emerging communities where companies are developing the mindsets and capacities to transfer risk in all kinds of insurance, not just life. BEST MOMENTS ’95-97% of the economy in Asia is driven by SMEs, and 75% of employment is in the SME sector, and it’s wildly underserved from an insurance perspective. It’s a massive opportunity.’ ‘Accessibility possibilities that the technology and maturity curve provides in emerging markets, especially, is quite exciting because it’s making insurance sustainable, affordable, and reaching more people.’ ‘The population where I live is very young, they were the first penetration for insurance here and, unlike the rest of the world, they’re deeply unconcerned about data privacy, they’re willing to trade their data access for convenience, better products and more personalisation.’ ‘Don’t only stick to the regulations timeframe, keep an eye on what entrepreneurs are building because the market can move faster than the regulations.’ ABOUT THE GUESTS Florian Graillot (covering InsurTech Europe) Hilario Itriago (covering InsurTech LATAM) Lisa Wardlaw (covering InsurTech USA) Michael Waitze (covering InsurTech Asia) Tunde Salako - Africa InsurTech (covering InsurTech Africa) ABOUT THE HOST Sabine is a corporate strategist turned entrepreneur. She is the CEO and Managing Partner of Alchemy Crew a venture lab that accelerates the curation, validation, & commercialization of new tech business models. Sabine is renowned within the insurance sector for building some of the most renowned tech startup accelerators around the world working with over 30 corporate insurers, accelerated over 100 startup ventures. Sabine is the co-editor of the bestseller The INSURTECH Book, a top 50 Women in Tech, a FinTech and InsurTech Influencer, an investor & multi-award winner. Twitter LinkedIn Instagram Facebook TikTok Email Website

Markets have had a busy week as we approach the Chinese New Year of the Wood Snake. The US Dollar index started to move lower after President Donald Trump appeared to soften his stance on China. Meanwhile, the US economy remains robust, and US equities are jumping on earnings wins by the most since 2018.In Asia, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5% on the back on domestic wage pressures and core inflation which remains firmly above the 2% target. Over in Singapore, the Monetary Authority of Singapore eased monetary policy for the first time since 2021.This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Asia at Julius Baer.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Tom Busby takes a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a preview of next week’s Fed decision and U.S tech earnings. In the UK – a preview of next week’s ECB decision. In Asia – a preview of next week’s RBA decision and a look at U.S-China trade relations. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our South Asia Energy Analyst Mayank Maheshwari discusses the main drivers behind a shifting electric power landscape in his outlook for Asia energy.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mayank Maheshwari, Morgan Stanley's South Asia Energy Analyst. There's been an investment surge in renewable energy – to field the world's rising demands for energy and power. With a new White House administration, however, there are questions about its future. Today I want to dig into the profound shifts impacting the production and consumption of power in Asia.It's Wednesday, November 20, at 9pm in Singapore. The world consumed 25 trillion units of power last year and Asia accounted for about half of that. Asia demand is booming like the rest of the world, and power consumption is at a tipping point. We forecast global power consumption will grow 26 per cent faster through 2030 than in the last decade. Somewhat similar to the US, we are actually seeing tightness in Asian power markets in coming years as well. But even today countries like India, Singapore, and increasingly Malaysia are seeing power demand grow at 1.5 to 2x faster than pre-COVID levels. So, what's driving this rapid growth? Outside of the residential power demand, growth is driven by GenAI datacenters, re-shoring of manufacturing facilities, there are new semi-conductor investments that are coming through, and expanding new energy supply chains itself are actually adding to the tightness. Importantly though, regional differences in clean power costs and demand are stark. In Asia, power prices have steadily risen. Multiple regulators are acknowledging the tightness by extending the life of coal plants, building new gas and coal facilities, and even restarting nuclear power generation capacity – as clean power alone cannot by itself handle this surge in demand. Interestingly though, the cost to produce clean power has declined pretty rapidly in 2024 to below-trend levels after a period of significant inflation we saw post-COVID. On average, solar panel prices in Asia declined 50 per cent, and the cost of onshore wind declined 10 per cent – with energy storage costs deflating by a third to levels not seen in the past five years. However, this cost deflation has been a lot more uneven across regions, with the US and Europe seeing much smaller declines due to tariffs and other supply bottlenecks. Asia is hence seeing significant inflection in the economics for power generation companies, especially in South Asia, which had lagged China capacity adds over the last several years. Part of the deflation in the clean power supply chain comes from even the capacity overbuilds that we are seeing in geographies that are looking to build their own clean power supply chains. Regions such as India and Southeast Asia, where clean power demand is growing very quickly, are adding to the glut in capacity on clean power supply chains that we have already seen in China.Amid all the clean power developments in Asia, COP29 announced a[n] updated climate goal. The UN climate conference being held in Azerbaijan this year aims for a 59 per cent to 67 per cent reduction in economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 2035. That's the clean energy update from Asia for now. Listen in tomorrow, as my colleagues engage in a conversation about the impact of the US election results on the sector.Thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or a colleague today.