Podcasts about Lagarde

Our podcast has a new name – welcome to Euro Matters! In the first episode of our In Conversation series, President Christine Lagarde shares her own path to financial knowledge and explains why knowing about money matters – especially for women. Recorded on 17 February 2026 and published on 3 March 2026. In this episode: 01:10 – Why do financial topics make people feel uncomfortable? 02:15 – President Lagarde's early experiences with managing finances 03:15 – Why is low financial knowledge a problem in Europe? And why does it matter for women in particular? 05:38 – How can women build confidence and take ownership of their finances? 06:40 – President Lagarde talks about the first time she realised that financial independence matters 07:50 – President Lagarde's first jobs 08:55 – The best financial advice President Lagarde has ever received 09:52 – The financial advice President Lagarde would give to her younger self 10:25 – President Lagarde shares her hot tip ECB web page on the gender gap https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb-and-you/financial_literacy_europe/The-gender-gap-in-financial-literacy/html/index.en.html Financial literacy in Europe https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb-and-you/financial_literacy_europe/html/index.en.html ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/ EuroSteps Walking Challenge https://www.walk15.app/en/download

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

The US State Department advised its citizens in Northern Mexico to ‘shelter in place', as the cartels took their reprisals, following a major Mexican security forces operation against gang kingpin El Mencho - and then another called El Tuli. It's all LOL, until you realise that this is just the start. By targeting the cartels, the US has poked a hornet's nest; And the hornets are on cocaine. Meanwhile - have you paid a US steel tariff in recent months? Was it over 30%? If so, you could be due a refund. Just dial 1-800-WHITE HOUSE to see if you may be eligible. The Supreme Court acknowledged that sorting out the tariffs strike-down would be ‘a complete mess'. But after the mess, the reckoning: deep down, this is a story about the US balance of payments. Finally, Christine Lagarde is stepping down from the ECB. Emmanuel Macron' s Napoleonic pincer movement is that this frees the way for a Lagarde Presidential Run – and stops a National Rally government from appointing its own bank governor in 2028. But with these kinds of cynical machinations now effectively running the European elite, the entire Centrist establishment may be embarking on its Russia Campaign. All of this. Coming up. For premium subscribers. That's right - it's premium week. If you're not a premium subscriber, you can sign up on our new Metternich Tier on Patreon, for eight dollars, pounds or Euros a month. patreon.com/multipolarityFor clarity, we should point out that founder subscribers still on the old Palmerston tier will stay at $5 a month. For anyone else, try it once, you won't regret it. And you can cancel any time. And if you like visual Multipolarity, you can always check us out on Substack, where we're expanding our output with a weekly Multipolarity Briefing every Tuesday. multipolaritypod.substack.com

APAC stocks are mostly positive as the majority of the region took its cue from gains on Wall Street, where tech led the advances, and NVIDIA posted stronger-than-expected earnings.US equity futures initially saw support following NVIDIA's earnings results, as the world's most valuable company beat on top and bottom lines, although gains were pared as NVIDIA ultimately returned to flat territory after hours.BoJ's Governor Ueda said there is no change from January to the BoJ's projected timing for hitting its price target, and inflation is expected to re-accelerate from the current slowdown.US VP Vance said they see evidence that Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon; US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran poses a grave threat and seeks nuclear capability.European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.9% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Consumer Confidence Final (Feb), US Jobless Claims, Japanese Tokyo CPI (Feb), Retail Sales (Jan). Speakers include ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Lombardelli & Fed's Bowman. Supply from Italy & US. Earnings from CoreWeave, Intuit, Vistra Energy, Autodesk, Dell, Baidu, Warner Bros Discovery, Munich Re, Schneider Electric, AXA, Engie & Saint-Gobain.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Nvidia heeft vorig kwartaal weer alle verwachtingen overtroffen. Op een omzet van 68 miljard een winst van 43 miljard dollar. Dat is al ongekend, helemaal dat het bedrijf met gigantische cijfers blijft groeien. Een omzetstijging van tientallen procenten. Het is alweer de 14e keer dat het bedrijf analisten aftroeft.En dan komt Nvidia óók nog eens met goed nieuws over de komende maanden. Ook dat ziet er super uit. Al nemen aandeelhouders dat niet helemaal van Nvidia aan: het aandeel gaat fors onderuit. Is die reactie terecht of stellen beleggers zich aan? Deze aflevering nemen we ruim de tijd voor alle vragen die er over Nvidia (en de kwartaalcijfers) zijn.Hebben we het ook over de topman van Ahold Delhaize, Frans Muller. Die kan een hele lekker bonus tegemoet zien. Als het plan van de raad van commissarissen wordt goedgekeurd. Ze willen namelijk dat Muller beter beloond wordt. Als dat plan er doorheen komt, dan kan hij zo'n 10 miljoen bonus krijgen. Per jaar! Verder hebben we het over de cijfers van Paramount én het bezoekje dat de baas van Netflix aan het Witte Huis moet brengen. Allemaal vanwege de overname van Warner Bros, waar beide bedrijven achteraan zitten.Schakelen we ook de hulp in van Noud Broekhof. De man achter de Nationale Autoshow vertelt alles over het historische verlies van autobouwer Stellantis en een lichtpuntje. Of is dat lichtpuntje er toch niet? Te gast: Marc Langeveld van Antaurus BNR Beurs is een journalistiek onafhankelijke productie, mede mogelijk gemaakt door Saxo. Over de makers: Jelle Maasbach is presentator van BNR Beurs en freelance financieel journalist. Zijn favoriete aandeel om over te praten is Disney, maar daar lijkt hij de enige in te zijn. Sinds de eerste uitzending van BNR Beurs is 'ie er bij. Maxim van Mil is presentator van BNR Beurs en journalist bij BNR, waar hij zich focust op de financiële markten en ontwikkelingen in de tech-wereld. Je krijgt hem het meest enthousiast als hij kan praten over ASML, of oer-Hollandse bedrijven zoals Ahold of ABN Amro. Jorik Simonides is presentator van BNR Beurs, economieredacteur en verslaggever bij BNR. Hij wordt er vooral blij van als het een keer níet over AI gaat. Milou Brand is presentator van BNR Beurs, freelance podcastmaker en columnist bij het Financieele Dagblad. Jochem Visser is presentator van BNR Beurs, maakt Beursnerd XL en de podcast Onder Curatoren. Vraag hem naar obscure zaken op financiële markten en hij vertelt je waarom het eigenlijk nóg leuker is dan je al dacht. Over de podcast: Met BNR Beurs ga je altijd voorbereid de nieuwe beursdag in. We praten je in een kleine 25 minuten bij over alle laatste ontwikkelingen op de handelsvloer. We blijven niet alleen bij de AEX of Wall Street, maar vertellen je ook waar nog meer kansen liggen. En we houden het niet bij de cijfers, maar zoeken ook iedere dag voor je naar duiding van scherpe gasten en experts. Of je nu een ervaren belegger bent of net begint met je eerste stappen op de beurs, de podcast biedt waardevolle inzichten voor je beleggingsstrategie. Door de focus op zowel de korte termijn als de lange termijn, helpt BNR Beurs luisteraars om de ruis van de markt te scheiden van de essentie. Van Musk tot Microsoft en van Ahold tot ASML. Wij vertellen je wat beleggers bezighoudt, wie de markten in beweging zet en wat dat betekent voor jouw beleggingsportefeuille.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nvidia heeft vorig kwartaal weer alle verwachtingen overtroffen. Op een omzet van 68 miljard een winst van 43 miljard dollar. Dat is al ongekend, helemaal dat het bedrijf met gigantische cijfers blijft groeien. Een omzetstijging van tientallen procenten. Het is alweer de 14e keer dat het bedrijf analisten aftroeft.En dan komt Nvidia óók nog eens met goed nieuws over de komende maanden. Ook dat ziet er super uit. Al nemen aandeelhouders dat niet helemaal van Nvidia aan: het aandeel gaat fors onderuit. Is die reactie terecht of stellen beleggers zich aan? Deze aflevering nemen we ruim de tijd voor alle vragen die er over Nvidia (en de kwartaalcijfers) zijn.Hebben we het ook over de topman van Ahold Delhaize, Frans Muller. Die kan een hele lekker bonus tegemoet zien. Als het plan van de raad van commissarissen wordt goedgekeurd. Ze willen namelijk dat Muller beter beloond wordt. Als dat plan er doorheen komt, dan kan hij zo'n 10 miljoen bonus krijgen. Per jaar! Verder hebben we het over de cijfers van Paramount én het bezoekje dat de baas van Netflix aan het Witte Huis moet brengen. Allemaal vanwege de overname van Warner Bros, waar beide bedrijven achteraan zitten.Schakelen we ook de hulp in van Noud Broekhof. De man achter de Nationale Autoshow vertelt alles over het historische verlies van autobouwer Stellantis en een lichtpuntje. Of is dat lichtpuntje er toch niet? Te gast: Marc Langeveld van Antaurus BNR Beurs is een journalistiek onafhankelijke productie, mede mogelijk gemaakt door Saxo. Over de makers: Jelle Maasbach is presentator van BNR Beurs en freelance financieel journalist. Zijn favoriete aandeel om over te praten is Disney, maar daar lijkt hij de enige in te zijn. Sinds de eerste uitzending van BNR Beurs is 'ie er bij. Maxim van Mil is presentator van BNR Beurs en journalist bij BNR, waar hij zich focust op de financiële markten en ontwikkelingen in de tech-wereld. Je krijgt hem het meest enthousiast als hij kan praten over ASML, of oer-Hollandse bedrijven zoals Ahold of ABN Amro. Jorik Simonides is presentator van BNR Beurs, economieredacteur en verslaggever bij BNR. Hij wordt er vooral blij van als het een keer níet over AI gaat. Milou Brand is presentator van BNR Beurs, freelance podcastmaker en columnist bij het Financieele Dagblad. Jochem Visser is presentator van BNR Beurs, maakt Beursnerd XL en de podcast Onder Curatoren. Vraag hem naar obscure zaken op financiële markten en hij vertelt je waarom het eigenlijk nóg leuker is dan je al dacht. Over de podcast: Met BNR Beurs ga je altijd voorbereid de nieuwe beursdag in. We praten je in een kleine 25 minuten bij over alle laatste ontwikkelingen op de handelsvloer. We blijven niet alleen bij de AEX of Wall Street, maar vertellen je ook waar nog meer kansen liggen. En we houden het niet bij de cijfers, maar zoeken ook iedere dag voor je naar duiding van scherpe gasten en experts. Of je nu een ervaren belegger bent of net begint met je eerste stappen op de beurs, de podcast biedt waardevolle inzichten voor je beleggingsstrategie. Door de focus op zowel de korte termijn als de lange termijn, helpt BNR Beurs luisteraars om de ruis van de markt te scheiden van de essentie. Van Musk tot Microsoft en van Ahold tot ASML. Wij vertellen je wat beleggers bezighoudt, wie de markten in beweging zet en wat dat betekent voor jouw beleggingsportefeuille.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

European bourses slip as AI concerns hit European Banks; US equity futures rebound slightly.JPY dragged on reports PM Takaichi raised reservations about rate hikes to BoJ Governor Ueda; DXY slightly firmer.Gilts notch a fresh contract high into the TSC, USTs rangebound heading into heavy speaker docket.WTI and Brent mildly gains; Spot gold retreats from Monday's best while Copper gains as mainland China returns. Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly, House Prices (Dec), Consumer Confidence (Feb), Dallas/Richmond Fed (Feb), Atlanta Fed GDP, NBH Policy Announcement, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Bailey, Greene, Taylor & Pill, Fed's Goolsbee, Collins, Bostic, Waller, Cook & Barkin, Supply from the US, Earnings from Home Depot & Keurig Dr Pepper.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC mostly firmer as China returned, somewhat shrugging off the weak Wall St. finish on AI disruption concerns.DXY marginally firmer, EUR/USD directionless, while USD/JPY edged higher and above 155.00.USTs pulled back from Monday's best, Bunds remained near highs, while JGBs saw choppy action after the long weekend.Crude remained tentative amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, XAU faded while copper rallied as China returned.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly, House Prices (Dec), Consumer Confidence (Feb), Dallas/Richmond Fed (Feb), Atlanta Fed GDP, NBH Policy Announcement, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Bailey, Lombardelli, Greene, Taylor & Pill, Fed's Goolsbee, Collins, Bostic, Waller, Cook & Barkin, Supply from UK, Italy & US, Earnings from Home Depot & Keurig Dr Pepper.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

President Trump raised the blanket tariff rate to 15% from 10% over the weekend, following SCOTUS ruling against IEEPA tariffs on Friday; EU is set to freeze trade deal approval over US President Trump's tariff risk, Bloomberg reports.European equities mixed; Defence names hit as Hungary blocks further funding.DXY pressured on renewed uncertainty after Trump increases global tariffs to 15%.Fixed income relatively contained and awaiting further tariff updates.WTI and Brent rangebound ahead of US-Iran talks this week; Spot XAU regains USD 5k/oz handle.US President Trump reportedly considers a targeted strike on Iran, followed by a larger attack and is open to deposing the Supreme Leader by force if Iran is stubborn, according to the NYT.Looking ahead, highlights include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Dec/Jan). Speakers include BoE's Taylor, Fed's Waller & ECB's Lagarde. Earnings from Hims & Hers.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

De Financial Times onthult dat ECB-president Christine Lagarde jaarlijks 140.000 euro ontvangt voor een nevenfunctie bij de BIS, de bank voor internationale betalingen, ook vaak aangeduid als de bank der centrale banken. Maar is het wel echt een onthulling van de Britse krant, vraag macro-econoom Arnoud Boot zich af. De Financial Times zegt er nog bij dat ECB-bestuurders geen bijverdiensten mogen hebben... Laten we beginnen bij de onderliggende essentie. Wat hieronder ligt is dat de ECB een bepaalde mate van onafhankelijkheid moet hebben. Het moet zijn monetair beleid kunnen voeren zonder politieke invloed. En het probleem is niet dat ze die functie bij de BIS uitoefent, want dat hoort gewoon bij het taakpakket van de president van de centrale bank. Dan is er dus geen probleem? ...See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

23/2 Trump, dazi globali al 25%: chi vince e chi perde, le analisi delle case d'affati. L'interrogativo sui rimborsi, le opzioni legali del presidente. Bessent: Gettito dei dazi invariato per il 2026, abbiamo alternative legali. Greer (rappresentante al commercio): accordi bilaterali rimangono in vigore. Futures Usa in rosso, dollaro e petrolio in calo. Corrono oro e argento, Bitcoin sotto 65mila dollari. Europa: l'aumento medio dei dazi è dello 0,8%. Parlamento verso il congelamento della ratifica degli accordi commerciali. Lagarde a Cbs: “nuovi dazi rischiano di sconvolgere equilibrio commerciale precedente. Disruption per le imprese”. Commissione: “condizioni non consentono commercio equo, bilanciato per entrambi”. Tajani a Bruxelles per riunione ministri esteri, partecipa da lì a G7 commercio. Oggi vertice Task Force Farnesina con imprese a Roma. In Usa: focus su cybersecurity (dopo release Claude Code) e credito privato (Blue Owl). Mercoledì la trimestrale delle trimestrali: Nvidia. Lo stesso giorno anche Salesforce, domani Home Depot e Lowe's. In Asia Giappone e Cina chiusi per festività. Il Kospi rompe un nuovo record, corre l'Hang-Seng e la borsa indiana. Cina: valutiamo da vicino dazi alternativi. Trump dal 31 marzo al 2 aprile da Xi Jinping. Futures europei in rosso. Focus su trimestrali, giovedì Stellantis. Mps la lista da 30 nomi per il rinnovo del Cda. BPM oggi assemblea straordinaria per modifiche statuto. Enel, buyback da 1mld, oggi a Milano il Piano Strategico.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In our latest episode, our team discusses the next ECB president in the context of French politics and Europe's role in the global economy.

Rassegna stampa economico-finanziaria del 21 febbraio 2026, strutturata per macro-temi e basata sulle principali testate giornalistiche nazionali.Investimenti e MercatiTestate coinvolte: Il Sole 24 Ore / Milano Finanza / la Repubblica / il Giornale / Corriere della Sera * Borse Europee in rialzo: Reazione positiva alla sentenza della Corte Suprema USA che ha dichiarato illegittimi i dazi di Trump. Piazza Affari è risultata la migliore in Europa con un incremento del +1,48%. Altri listini: Parigi +1,39%, Francoforte +0,96%, Madrid +0,90% e Londra +0,59%. * Andamento Wall Street: Reazione più cauta a New York; l'indice S&P 500 ha registrato un +0,6%, il Nasdaq +0,9% e il Dow Jones +0,49%. * Materie Prime e Valute: L'oro ha raggiunto un nuovo record a 5.117 dollari l'oncia (+2,4%). L'euro si è rafforzato sul dollaro a quota 1,1786 (+0,13%). * Corsa Globale all'IA: Gli investimenti globali in Intelligenza Artificiale per il 2026 vedono gli USA in testa con circa 700 miliardi di $ ( Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta e Amazon). La Cina punta a un mercato da 1.400 miliardi di $ entro il 2030. L'Europa appare in ritardo con una spesa prevista di soli 10,6 miliardi di € per infrastrutture cloud sovrane. * Export Italiano: Nel 2025 l'export ha raggiunto un valore record di 643 miliardi di € (+3,3%). Gli USA rappresentano il secondo partner commerciale con una quota del 10,4% (69,6 miliardi di €). Industria e BusinessTestate coinvolte: la Repubblica / Corriere della Sera / il Giornale / La Stampa * Crisi dei Dazi USA: La Corte Suprema ha annullato dazi che avevano generato entrate per 133,5 miliardi di $, definendoli illegali poiché non autorizzati dal Congresso. Trump ha però già annunciato una nuova tariffa globale del 10% per 150 giorni basata sulla "Section 122" del Trade Act del 1974. * Settore Agroalimentare: L'export vinicolo italiano negli USA vale il 24% del totale del settore. Nonostante il successo del Prosecco, si registra un calo generale del comparto negli USA stimato al -10% in quantità e -4,5% in valore. * Settore Farmaceutico: Comparto resiliente, ha registrato una crescita dell'export del +28,5% nel 2025, fondamentale per mantenere in attivo la bilancia commerciale verso gli Stati Uniti. * Piani Industriali negli USA: Stellantis ha confermato investimenti per 13 miliardi di $ per aumentare la produzione del 50% (5.000 nuovi posti). Prysmian ha acquisito Channell per 950 milioni di $. * Nomine e Media: Dimissioni di Paolo Petrecca dalla direzione di Rai Sport; direzione affidata ad interim a Marco Lollobrigida.Fisco, Normativa e ManovraTestate coinvolte: Il Sole 24 Ore / la Repubblica / Corriere della Sera * Pagella UPB sulla Manovra 2026: L'Ufficio Parlamentare di Bilancio segnala benefici netti per le famiglie per 20,1 miliardi di € nel triennio 2026-2028. Al contrario, a imprese e autonomi viene chiesto un contributo di 9,1 miliardi di €. * KPI Deficit: La manovra comporta un aumento del deficit rispetto al tendenziale di 0,8 miliardi nel 2026, 5,7 miliardi nel 2027 e 6,8 miliardi nel 2028. * Decreto Milleproroghe: Chiusa la discussione alla Camera con la richiesta di fiducia; confermato lo stop alla proroga del credito d'imposta per la carta editoriale e il rinvio della tassa di 2 € sui mini-pacchi extra-UE. * Giustizia Tributaria: Dal 2 maggio 2026 scatterà il giudice monocratico per le liti fiscali fino a 10.000 € per accelerare lo smaltimento dell'arretrato. * Sanità Integrativa: Nuova riforma organica (DL 19/2026) che affida la vigilanza alla Covip per un settore che conta oltre 15 milioni di iscritti.Banche e CreditoTestate coinvolte: la Repubblica / Il Sole 24 Ore * Fattore Borsa: I titoli bancari hanno guidato il rialzo di Piazza Affari insieme alle assicurazioni (Unipol), grazie agli ottimi conti del 2025. * BCE e "Fattore Lagarde": Incertezza sui mercati legata alle possibili dimissioni della presidente Lagarde; la volatilità rimane il termometro principale per la politica monetaria.Energia e GeopoliticaTestate coinvolte: la Repubblica / La Stampa / Il Messaggero * Decreto Bollette: Il governo stima un risparmio lordo di 7,5 miliardi di € per famiglie e imprese tramite la sterilizzazione dei costi ETS e oneri gas. Tuttavia, l'aumento dell'Irap del 2% per i produttori energetici (impatto di 1 miliardo di €) rischia di essere traslato sui prezzi finali. * Tensioni in Confindustria: Elettricità Futura (guidata da Edison e A2A) minaccia l'uscita da Confindustria per divergenze insanabili sul Decreto Bollette. * Scenario USA-Iran: Indiscrezioni su un possibile "attacco limitato" degli USA contro l'Iran per bloccare il programma nucleare. Parallelamente, Teheran avrebbe offerto accesso ai giacimenti di gas in cambio di velivoli civili americani.Lavoro e FormazioneTestate coinvolte: Il Sole 24 Ore / Corriere della Sera / La Stampa * Turn-over nella PA: Prevista l'uscita di 1 milione di dipendenti pubblici nei prossimi 6 anni a causa della "gobba demografica" (il 30% della forza lavoro attuale). * IA e Competenze: A Torino è stato presentato il piano strategico 2026-2030 dell'Istituto Italiano di IA (AI4I), con l'obiettivo di superare i 10 milioni di € di ricavi esterni e attivare 30 laboratori.Executive Takeaway (Insight per C-Suite) * Resilienza Export: Nonostante le barriere doganali e l'incertezza politica negli USA, l'export italiano verso Washington ha retto (69,6 mld € nel 2025), trainato dalla farmaceutica (+28,5%). La diversificazione dei mercati (Mercosur, India) resta la priorità strategica per mitigare il rischio Trump. * Dicotomia Fiscale: La manovra 2026 favorisce i consumi delle famiglie (20 mld €) ma drena risorse dal sistema produttivo e dagli autonomi (9,1 mld €). Le aziende devono monitorare attentamente la sostenibilità strutturale di questi interventi nel lungo periodo (post-2029). * Energy Risk: Il beneficio del Decreto Bollette (stimato in un -10/15% sui prezzi all'ingrosso) potrebbe essere annullato dal recupero marginale delle utility colpite dall'extra-Irap e dalla volatilità dei certificati ETS. * Lavoro nella PA: La massiccia ondata di pensionamenti nella PA (1 mln in 6 anni) apre opportunità per fornitori di servizi digitali e consulenza per la gestione della transizione e del reclutamento. * Sovranità Tecnologica: L'IA sta passando da ambito sperimentale a infrastruttura critica. Per le imprese italiane, la sfida non è solo l'adozione individuale, ma l'integrazione di filiera per non subire la leadership tecnologica di USA e Cina.

This week, we examine coming US inflation and labour market data, and the Fed outlook following a hawkish set of minutes this week. In Europe, we discuss reports that President Lagarde could be leaving the ECB early and consider the growth and inflation outlook for the region. Across Asia, we preview the Bank of Korea and Bank of Thailand policy meetings, and examine key coming data in India, Japan and Australia. Chapters: US: 2:00; Europe: 8:15;  Asia: 14:00

Für die Pressestelle der EZB dürfte es am Mittwoch ordentlich zu tun gegeben haben – denn bereits zum zweiten Mal innerhalb eines Jahres stellte sich die Frage: Wird Christine Lagarde ihre Amtszeit als EZB-Präsidentin beenden? Carsten Brzeski erklärt im Gespräch mit Franziska Biehl, was hinter den Gerüchten stecken könnte und was das für die Unabhängigkeit der Europäischen Zentralbank bedeuten würde. Außerdem werfen unsere Ökonomen einen Blick auf mögliche Kandidaten für die Nachfolge an der EZB-Spitze.

20/2 Lagarde (BCE) in esclusiva al Wsj: “ll mio scenario di base è restare fino alla fine del mio mandato”. Wall Street, futures in verde dopo il risk-off della vigilia. WSJ: Trump valuta intervento militare iniziale e mirato in Iran per spingere accordo. Telegraph possibile questo weekend. Rally petrolio massimi da agosto, WTI sfiora 67 dollari. Oro, argento e Bitcoin in timida ripresa. Nvidia investirà 30mld nel round di finanziamento di OpenAi sostituendo l'impegno a lungo termine da 100miliardi. Meta taglia bonus allo staff (stock options) del 5%. Oggi dato PCE, pil 4Q e fiducia consumatori Michigan. Blue Owl, i rischi del Private equity. Board of Peace pronto a mobilitare 17mld dollari per Gaza. In Asia, altro record del Kospi. Nikkei in calo, inflazione sotto 2% per la prima volta da 45 mesi. Pmi manifatturiero sopra le attese, più spazio per la BOJ. In Europa, futures prudenti. Oggi Pmi manifatturiero e speech Lagarde. Il club E5 dei Paesi per velocizzare unione mercati finanziari. Mps, lista Cda a 30 nomi con Lovaglio e Maione. Moncler, fatturato 4Q +7% grazie a Asia e America. Focus su utility dopo debacle vigilia, oggi conti di Unipol.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ganancias en Bolsas europeas en un viernes que tiene de todo. Irán. Ya se acerca por allí el mayor buque de guerra de Estados Unidos. La flota del USS Gerald Ford ya ha atravesado el estrecho de Gibraltar. Se achantan en Teherán. Su ministro de Exteriores dice que no consideran enemigos a los norteamericanos y que ultiman borrador de propuesta nuclear. Los precios del petróleo hoy, de momento, no suben. Hay macro. En Estados Unidos, PIB y deflactor. A ver reacción en bonos porque crecimiento se desacelera e inflación se mantiene ligeramente más alta que las previsiones. En Europa, buena. La industria deja de contraerse, ¿punto de inflexión? En plano comercial, pendientes de si hay revés de la justicia en EE.UU a los aranceles de Trump. Todo aderezado con preocupaciones en crédito, caso Blue Owl Capital y sus corralito, y reestructuraciones de capital en empresas. La última parece que con éxito: Tullow Oil. Entre medias Lagarde, que se ha pronunciado al fin sobre su futuro. Dice que su "hipótesis de partida" es terminar su mandato en el BCE. En Bolsa española, titulares para Bankinter y su histórico dividendo; y la papelera Ence, que anuncia despidos. Hacemos balance de la semana con Miguel Ángel Temprano. Y vemos futuros y niveles en empresas Ibex con Gerardo Ortega.

La presidenta del BCE, Christine Lagarde, insiste en que su objetivo es terminar su mandato en octubre de 2027 en medio de rumores que apuntaban a un adiós anticipado. En una entrevista en The Wall Street Journal, Lagarde cree que “hemos logrado mucho”. “Necesitamos consolidar y asegurarnos de que esto sea realmente sólido y confiable. Así que mi punto de partida es que esto durará hasta el final de mi mandato”. La industria europea repunta desde los 49,5 puntos a los 50,8, según el índice PMI de S&P Global. Son ocho décimas más de lo esperado y una vuelta a la zona de crecimiento. Entre tanto, los PMI alemanes muestran una optimista mejoría mientras que los de Francia apenas avanzan. Por cierto que el canciller Friedrich Merz viaja la próxima semana a China.. y, según el portavoz del gobierno, “Berlín quiere cooperación donde sea necesaria y redunde en el interés de ambas partes”. En clave empresarial, Danone gana 1.825 millones de euros en 2025, un 9,7% menos y Moncler cerró 2025 con un beneficio neto de 626 millones, ligeramente por debajo de los 639 millones de 2024. Entrevistaremos a Fernando Camacho, socio del sector Seguros de BIP Iberia, para hablar de las indemnizaciones de los seguros tras el temporal. La actualidad, a debate en la Tertulia de Cierre de Mercados con Isabel Giménez, directora de la Fundación de Estudios Bursátiles y Financieros, y Juan Iranzo, catedrático de Economía Aplicada de la UNED y director de DarmadatA.

Christine Lagarde rozważa wcześniejsze odejście z EBC, protokół Fed pokazuje głębokie podziały w sprawie przyszłych stóp procentowych, a Wall Street rośnie dzięki technologicznym gigantom. Dziś inwestorzy w Polsce czekają na dane z GUS oraz wyniki Orlenu, PKO i Pekao. Analizujemy też ⁠rebranding CCC na Modivo⁠, prognozy⁠ MFW o doganianiu Wielkiej Brytanii⁠ i ⁠nowy trend łączenia geopolityki z rynkiem kapitałowym⁠.Przypominamy również o nominacji aplikacji Pulsu Biznesu w konkursie Mobile Trends Awards 2025 w kategorii „Mobile dla Biznesu” - ⁠głosować można tu⁠!

Heute mit Stimmen zum Machtwechsel in Peru, dem möglichen, vorzeitigen Rücktritt der Präsidentin der Europäischen Zentralbank, Lagarde, und den Verhandlungen in Genf über ein Ende des Ukraine-Kriegs. www.deutschlandfunk.de, Internationale Presseschau

19/2 ll Tech riparte da Ws all'Asia. Durerà? Nuovo record storico per il Kospi (per Goldman Sachs salirà del 20% nel 2026 ) e Samsung che alza i prezzi dei suoi chip AI del 30%. Oro sopra 5.000$. AI Impact Summit: Capi di stato e pesi massimi Tech in India.  OpenAI chiude un round di funding da 100mld, la valutazione sale a 850mld di dollari. Accordo con Tata per datacenter in India. L'FMI avverte la Cina: tagliare i sussidi alle imprese. Yuan sottovalutato del 16%. Sale il Nikkei, BOJ verso taglio a giugno. Wall Street, futures in verde. Stasera i conti di Walmart. Minute Fed: scarso appetito per altri tagli. Per alcuni governatori necessario rialzo se inflazione non si avvicinerà ai target. Domani Pce, pil 4Q, fiducia consumatori e possibile finestra decisione Corte Suprema. Petrolio sale, WSJ forza militare simile non si vedeva da invasione Iraq 2003. Oggi prima riunione Board of Peace. Il processo storico di Meta a Los Angeles. Bce: “the race is on” è già partita la corsa per il successore di Lagarde. A rischio l'indipendenza della Bce. La Spagna si fa avanti con De Cos. La Germania chiude ufficialmente ai caccia franco-tedeschi. Mps-Mediobanca: il polo che verrà. Tutto quello che dovete sapere su riassetto e concambio. Decreto energia: aumento dell'Irap del 2%. Focus su Fincantieri, Brunello Cucinelli, attesa per conti Moncler. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

An avalanche in California has left up to 10 skiers missing and six stranded. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is reportedly planning to leave her job early to allow French President Emmanuel Macron to help find a successor. U.S. envoys juggle near-simultaneous crisis talks on Iran and Ukraine in Geneva. Plus, actor Shia LaBeouf is arrested at Mardi Gras in New Orleans. Find our recommended read ⁠here⁠. Listen to On Assignment here. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast ⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠. Sign up for the Reuters Econ World newsletter ⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠. Listen to the Reuters Econ World podcast ⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠. Visit the ⁠Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement⁠ for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit ⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠ to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ce mercredi 18 février, le départ anticipé de Christine Lagarde à la BCE évoqué par le FT, la baisse des taux anticipées par les marchés européens, et le spread OAT/Bund qui se resserre, ont été abordés par Jean-Pierre Petit, président des Cahiers Verts de l'Économie, Éric Heyer, directeur du département analyse et prévision de l'OFCE, et Guillaume Poitrinal, fondateur de WO2, promoteur immobilier bas carbone, dans l'émission Les Experts, présentée par Raphaël Legendre sur BFM Business. Retrouvez l'émission du lundi au vendredi et réécoutez la en podcast.

Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, has decided to leave her position as the EU's top central banker before the end of her mandate in October 2027, according to a report in the Financial Times. The move could allow for her successor to be named ahead of presidential elections in France. Also in this edition, Venezuela's interim government issues its first statement on the disputed oil-rich territory of Essequibo. 

Sturmberg, Jessica www.deutschlandfunk.de, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft

Geruchten dat ECB-president Christine Lagarde haar termijn niet gaat afmaken, worden sterker en luider. Edin Mujagic, nooit een fan van deze bankpresident, zou blij moeten zijn met dat nieuws, maar is het niet. 'Politieker dan dit wordt het niet.' Politiek? Leg uit? Je kunt allerlei redenen hebben om eerder te stoppen: gezondheidsredenen, of dat je er niets meer aan vindt... Maar Lagarde overweegt om eerder te stoppen, zodat de Franse president Macron, die nog tot aan het voorjaar van volgend jaar president is, kan meebeslissen wie haar opvolger wordt. Als je daarover nadenkt: dit is pure politiek. En een centrale bank moet zich ver houden van politiek, leg je altijd uit... See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ondanks geopolitieke spanningen en wereldwijde onzekerheid presteerde de Nederlandse economie afgelopen jaar beter dan verwacht. Welke krachten houden onze economie overeind? Te gast is Tjerk Kroes, Directeur Economisch Beleid en Onderzoek bij De Nederlandsche Bank, in BNR's Big Five van de economische veerkracht Gasten in BNR's Big Five van de economie veerkracht -Bas Jacobs, hoogleraar economie en overheidsfinanciën aan de Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam -Stan Westerterp, managing partner en eigenaar van Bond Capital Partners -Tjerk Kroes, Directeur Economisch Beleid en Onderzoek bij DNB -Wendy van Ierschot, oprichter VIE People, ondernemer en investeerder -Harald Benink, hoogleraar Banking en Finance aan de Universiteit TilburgSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hablamos del debate en torno al sustituto de Lagarde y comentamos qué esperar de las actas de la Fed con Diego Barnuevo, analista de Ebury.

Hoy ponemos el foco en los posibles sustitutos de Lagarde y las posibilidades reales que tiene el español Hernández de Cos.

Alvaro de la Rosa, selector de fondos de Abante; y Gustavo Martínez, profesor de finanzas en la Universidad Francisco Marroquí y analista de mercados, analizan los sectores protagonistas, los rumores de relevo de Lagarde y la rotación de carteras de Warran Buffet.

Your morning briefing. All the news you need to start your dayOn today's podcast:(1) The US and Iran made progress in nuclear talks in Geneva on Tuesday, with Tehran’s negotiators scheduled to return with a new proposal in two weeks, a US official said on Tuesday, a cautiously upbeat assessment that suggests the chances of an imminent military clash are low.(2) Japan plans to invest up to $36 billion in US oil, gas and critical mineral projects, the first tranche of its $550 billion commitment under the trade agreement it struck with President Donald Trump.(3) The ECB says Christine Lagarde hasn't made any decision about leaving her job as President early. That follows a report from the Financial Times - citing one person familiar with Lagarde's thinking - saying she wants to step down before France's Presidential election in April 2027.(4) Anthropic is releasing a new artificial intelligence model that’s intended to be better at using people’s computers in increasingly complicated ways, building on the startup’s efforts to make AI tools more effective at streamlining tasks.(5) Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway slashed its stake in Amazon. by more than 75% in the fourth quarter, while also building a stake in the New York Times Co., his last new bet as chief executive officer of the conglomerate.(6) In the two years since the ban on internal combustion engine vehicles in Ethiopia, EV adoption has grown from less than 1% to nearly 6% of all of the vehicles on the road in the country — according to the government’s own figures — some way above the global average of 4%. Podcast Conversation: Downsizing Is The Biggest Trend in Restaurants and Hotels Right NowSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bea Triguero, John Muller, Carlos Rodríguez Braun e Ignacio Rodríguez Burgos repasan la actualidad económica del día.

In deze editie van Nieuws van de Week bespreken Rogier van Bemmel, Ad Verbrugge en Jelle van Baardewijk de geopolitieke en maatschappelijke verschuivingen die Europa en Nederland raken. Van de versnelde federalisering van de EU tot de schokkende onthullingen rond Jeffrey Epstein, en van de demonisering van Forum voor Democratie tot de escalerende conflicten in Oekraïne en het Midden-Oosten. Europa lijkt in een stroomversnelling te zitten: een Europees leger en een geïntegreerde kapitaalmarkt worden gepresenteerd als noodzakelijk antwoord op de veranderende wereldorde, maar critici zoals Bart de Wever waarschuwen dat we hiermee "de afgrond in gaan". Ondertussen zorgt de vrijgave van de Epstein-documenten voor schokgolven, waarbij netwerken blootgelegd worden die verder reiken dan gedacht. In eigen land wordt het politieke debat steeds grimmiger, met spotprenten en aanvallen op FVD die volgens Verbrugge een dieperliggend legitimiteitsprobleem van de gevestigde orde maskeren. Tot slot analyseren de heren de rol van Trump in de mogelijke beëindiging van de oorlog in Oekraïne en het risico op verdere escalatie tussen Israël en Iran.Steun DNWMaak het geluid van de Nieuwe Wereld mogelijk. Zonder uw steun geen DNW! Word lid of doneer:

APAC stocks began the week higher after last Friday's rally on Wall St, where the DJIA topped the 50k level for the first time.The Nikkei 225 also hit a fresh record high after PM Takaichi's landslide election victory and supermajority.China is reportedly urging banks to curb US Treasuries exposure amid market risk, Bloomberg reports, citing sources; guidance does not apply to China's state holdings of US Treasuries.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4% after the cash market closed higher by 1.2% on Friday.Highlights include Swiss Consumer Confidence (Jan), Norwegian GDP (Q4), Mexican Inflation (Jan), US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jan), BoC Market Participants Survey. Speakers include ECB's Lane & Lagarde, Fed's Waller & Bostic, Earnings from Apollo, Becton Dickinson, Loews, On Semiconductor & Cleveland-Cliffs.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

China is reportedly urging banks to curb USTs exposure amid market risk, Bloomberg reports, citing sources; guidance does not apply to China's state holdings of US Treasuries.Japanese PM Takaichi's LDP party won a landslide victory at the snap election on Sunday, securing a super majority; JPY bid, JGBs lower and Nikkei 225 soars.European bourses are broadly firmer, whilst US equity futures move lower; Nikkei 225 soars post-LDP victory.USD hit on China-USTs report, JPY strengthens post-LDP, whilst GBP lags on regional political woes.JGBs set a bearish tone for global fixed income, with USTs also dragged on the China-USTs report; Gilts digest the McSweeney resignation and reports that PM Starmer faces further pressure to resign.WTI and Brent are flat. Precious metals continue to rebound as the PBoC buys gold for a 15th consecutive month.Looking ahead, highlights include US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jan), BoC Market Participants Survey. Speakers include ECB's Lane & Lagarde, Fed's Waller & Bostic, Earnings from Apollo, Becton Dickinson, Loews, On Semiconductor & Cleveland-Cliffs.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today's decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 5 February 2026. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 5 February 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2026/html/mopo_statement_explained_february.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 5 February 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2026/html/ecb.is260205~50858cb986.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 5 February 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260205~001d26959b.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 5 February 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds260205~0c74e825a7.en.pdf European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

APAC stocks were mostly lower following the continued tech selling stateside and flip-flopping regarding US-Iran talks, while commodities were pressured overnight with silver prices dropping by a double-digit percentage.Earnings saw Alphabet shares fall 2.0%, ARM Holdings slip 8.6%, and Qualcomm slump 10.3% after market.US President Trump said not much doubt that interest rates will be lowered and thinks that Warsh wants to cut rates anyway.US BLS rescheduled the January employment report for Feb. 11th, while it rescheduled December job openings and labour turnover report for February 5th, and rescheduled January CPI to February 13th.Looking ahead, highlights include German Factory Orders (Dec), EZ Retail Sales (Dec), US Challenger (Jan), Weekly/Continuing Jobless Claims, Revelio PLS, ECB Announcement, BoE Announcement & MPR, Banxico Announcement, CNB Announcement. Speakers include BoE's Bailey, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Bostic, BoC's Macklem & RBA's Bullock. Supply from Spain & France.Earnings from Amazon, Strategy, Roblox, Reddit, Bloom Energy, ConocoPhillips, Bristol Myers Squibb, Barrick Mining, Cigna, Linde, Shell, Unilever & UniCredit.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are broadly on the backfoot; US equity futures mixed, but the NQ outperforms, as chip names benefit from Alphabet boosting AI spending.DXY is mildly firmer, with G10s lower to varying degrees; Aussie hampered by pressure in metals, GBP lags into BoE.Fixed income benchmarks are mixed; USTs incrementally firmer, whilst Gilts underperform on political woes.Crude benchmarks slip with US-Iran meeting confirmed, Spot gold moves lower, silver -10.5%.Looking ahead, highlights include US Challenger (Jan), Weekly/Continuing Jobless Claims, Revelio PLS, ECB Announcement, BoE Announcement & MPR, Banxico Announcement, CNB Announcement. Speakers include BoE's Bailey, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Bostic, BoC's Macklem & RBA's Bullock.Earnings from Amazon, Strategy, Roblox, Reddit, Bloom Energy, ConocoPhillips, Bristol Myers Squibb, Barrick Mining, Cigna.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses opened stronger, but sentiment has dipped off best levels; US equity futures are modestly firmer, with mild outperformance is seen in the NQ.DXY is flat, Antipodeans benefit from a rebound in metals prices with outperformance in the Aussie after the RBA hiked rates by 25bps (as expected), whilst the SoMP noted that underlying inflation is higher than expected.Fixed income on the backfoot with supply in focus in a shutdown-thinned US docket.Crude prices initially lower but now flat; India to stop importing Russian oil as part of the trade deal with the US. Metals rebound with spot gold returning above USD 4900/oz.Looking ahead, highlights include US RCM/TIPP (Feb), New Zealand Unemployment (Q4), Australian S&P PMIs Final (Jan), Speakers including Fed's Bowman, Barkin & ECB's Lagarde.December JOLTS has been postponed, on account of the US government shutdown. Earnings from AMD, Supermicro, Amgen, Amcor, PayPal, PepsiCo, Pfizer, Merck.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher with several bourses firmly recovering from the prior day's sell-off, as the region took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street.US President Trump announced that India will stop buying Russian oil, while the US will be lowering tariffs on India to 18% from 25%.RBA hiked the Cash Rate by 25bps as expected in a unanimous decision, marking the first hike in over two years; RBA's SoMP noted that underlying inflation is higher than expected and GDP growth has continued to pick up.US BLS will not release the January jobs report on Friday due to the partial US Government shutdown, while December JOLTS (due 3rd Feb) has also been postponed.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.0% on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include Turkish Inflation (Jan), French Prelim. CPI (Jan), RCM/TIPP (Feb), New Zealand Unemployment (Q4), Australian S&P PMIs Final (Jan), Speakers including Fed's Bowman, Barkin & ECB's Lagarde, Supply from UK & Germany, Earnings from AMD, Supermicro, Amgen, Amcor, PayPal, PepsiCo, Pfizer, Merck & Publicis.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Niko Jilch is a renowned finance journalist, podcaster, and fierce advocate for Bitcoin and sound money principles.› https://x.com/NikoJilch› https://www.youtube.com/@WasBitcoinbringtPARTNERS

2026-01-24 | UPDATES #112 | Davos: The Heckle-Fest—and the Cost of America's New Posture. Trump's Gangster Shakedown in Europe. Davos is usually a place where elites congratulate each other for “dialogue,” then fly home in private jets to continue not doing not enough, or to vigorously pursue inaction. This week, though, Davos did something rare: it heckled. And it heckled America — specifically the Trump administration's new habit of treating allies like adversaries, of turning geopolitics into ritual humiliation, and turning diplomacy into a reality show elimination round. ----------SUPPORT THE CHANNEL:https://www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.patreon.com/siliconcurtain----------SOURCES: Reuters — Lutnick heckled at Davos dinner hosted by BlackRock's Fink (Jan 21, 2026). Financial Times — Lutnick dinner incident / Lagarde walkout reporting (summarized in Reuters/People) (Jan 20–21, 2026). People — Al Gore reaction; DOC pushback; “energy policy is insane” quote (Jan 21, 2026).Reuters — Bessent: “Denmark itself… is irrelevant”; Macron swipe; “deep breath” (Jan 21, 2026).Reuters — Europe leaders in Davos; Macron “respect to bullies”; De Wever red lines; Busch “stroking the cat”; Zelensky X post reference (Jan 20, 2026). Reuters — Trump: “big retaliation… we have all the cards”; “total access”; “no cost” (Jan 22, 2026).World Economic Forum — Official Davos transcript excerpts (“piece of ice,” “won't use force,” “daddy”) (Jan 21, 2026). Reuters — “Trump whisperer” Rutte; lavish praise strategy; analysts on psychology and compromise (Jan 22, 2026). RFE/RL — Witkoff “end now… optimistic”; “down to one issue”; Zelensky “Groundhog Day” framing (Jan 22, 2026). ----------SILICON CURTAIN LIVE EVENTS - FUNDRAISER CAMPAIGN Events in 2025 - Advocacy for a Ukrainian victory with Silicon Curtainhttps://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extrasOur events of the first half of the year in Lviv, Kyiv and Odesa were a huge success. Now we need to maintain this momentum, and change the tide towards a Ukrainian victory. The Silicon Curtain Roadshow is an ambitious campaign to run a minimum of 12 events in 2025, and potentially many more. Any support you can provide for the fundraising campaign would be gratefully appreciated. https://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extras----------

Our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter joins our chief regional economists to discuss the outlook for interest rates in the U.S., Japan and Europe.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And today we're kicking off our quarterly economic roundtable for the year. We're going to try to think about everything that matters in economics around the world. And today we're going to focus a little bit more on central banking. And when we get to tomorrow, we'll focus on the nuts and bolts of the real side of the economy. I'm joined by our chief regional economists. Michael Gapen: Hi, Seth. I'm Mike Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley. Chetan Ahya: I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia economist. Jens Eisenschmidt: And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe economist. Seth Carpenter: It's Thursday, January 22nd at 10 am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4 pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 9 pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: So, Mike Gapen, let me start with you as we head into 2026, what are we thinking about? Are we going into a more stable expansion? Is this just a different phase with the same amount of volatility? What do you think is going to be happening in the U.S. as a baseline outlook? And then if we're going to be wrong, which direction would we be wrong? Michael Gapen: Yeah, Seth, we took the view that we would have more policy certainty. Recent weeks have maybe suggested we're incorrect on that front. But I still believe that when it comes to deregulation, immigration policy and fiscal policy, we have much more clarity there than we did a year ago. So, I think it's another year of modest growth, above trend growth. We're forecasting something around 2.4 percent for 2026. That's about where we finished 2025. I think what's key for markets and the outlook overall will be whether inflation comes down. Firms are still passing through tariffs to the consumer. We think that'll happen at least through the end of the first quarter. It's our view that after that, inflation pressures will start to diminish. If that's the case, then we think the Fed can execute one or two more rate cuts. But we have those coming [in] the second half of the year. So, it looks like growth is strong enough. The labor market has stabilized enough for the Fed to wait and see, to look around, see the effects of their prior rate cuts, and then push policy closer to neutral if inflation comes down. Seth Carpenter: And if we go back to last year to 2025, I will give you the credit first. Morgan Stanley did not shift its forecast for recession in the U.S. the way some of our main competitors did. On the other hand, and this is where I maybe tweak you just a little bit. We underestimated how much growth there would be in the United States. CapEx spending from AI firms was strong. Consumer spending, especially from the top half of the income distribution in the U.S. was strong. Growth overall for the year was over 2 percent, close to 2.5 percent. So, if that's what we just came off of, why isn't it the case that we'd see even stronger growth? Maybe even a re-acceleration of growth in 2026? Michael Gapen: Well, some of that, say, improvement vis-à-vis our forecast, the outperformance. Some of that I think comes mechanically from trade and inventory variability. So, . I'm not sure that that says a lot about an improving trend rate of growth. Where there was other outperformance was, as you noted, from the consumer. Now our models, and I don't mean to get too technical here, but our model suggests that consumption is overshooting its fundamentals. Which I think makes it harder for the economy to accelerate further. And then AI; it's harder for AI spending to say get incrementally stronger than where it is. So, we're getting a little extra boost from fiscal. We've got that coming through. And I just think what it is, is more of the same rather than further acceleration from here. Seth Carpenter: Do you think there's a chance that the Fed in fact does not cut rates like you have in your forecast? Michael Gapen: Yes, I do think... Where we could be wrong is we've made assumptions around the One Big Beautiful Bill and what it will contribute to the economy. But as you know, there's a lot of variability around those estimates. If the bill is more catalytic to animal spirits and business spending than we've assumed, you could get, say, a demand driven animal spirits upside to the economy, which may mean inflation doesn't decelerate all that much. But I do think that that's, say, the main upside risk that we're considering. Markets have been gradually taking out probabilities of Fed cuts as growth has come in stronger. So far, the inflation data has been positive in terms of signaling about disinflation, but I would say the jury's still out on how much that continues. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, When I think about Japan, we know that it's been the developed market central bank that's been going in the opposite direction. They've been hiking when other central banks have been cutting. We got some news recently that probably put some risk into our baseline outlook that we published in our year ahead view about both growth and inflation in Japan. And with it what the Bank of Japan is going to do in terms of its normalization. Can you just walk us through a little bit about our outlook for Japan? Because right now I think that the yen, Japanese rates, they're all part of the ongoing market narrative around the world. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, look, I mean, on a big picture basis, we are constructive on the Japan macro-outlook. We think normal GDP growth remains strong. We are expecting to see the transition for the consumers from them seeing, you know, supply side inflation. Keeping their real wage growth low to a dynamic where we transition to real wage growth accelerating. That supports real consumption growth, and we move away from that supply side driven inflation to demand side driven inflation. So broadly we are constructive, but I think in the backdrop, what we are seeing on currency depreciation is making things a bit more challenging for the BOJ. While we are expecting that demand side pressure to build up and drive inflation, in the trailing data, it is still pretty much currency depreciation and supply side factors like food inflation driving inflation. And so, BOJ has been hesitant. So, while we had the expectation that BOJ will hike in January of 2027, we do see the risk that they may have to take up rate hike earlier to manage the currency not getting out of hand and adding on to the inflation pressures. Seth Carpenter Would I be right in saying that up until now, the yen has swung pretty widely in both directions. But the weakening of the yen until now hasn't been really the key driver of the Bank of Japan's policy reaction. It's been growth picking up, inflation picking up, wanting to get out of negative interest rates first, wanting to get away from the zero lower bounds. Second, the weaker yen in some sense could have actually been seen as a positive up until now because Japan did go through 25 years of essentially stagnant nominal growth. Is this actually that much of a fundamental change in the Bank of Japan's thinking – needing to react to the weakness of the yen? Chetan Ahya: Broadly what you're saying is right, Seth, but there is also a threshold of where the currency can be. And beyond a point, it begins to hurt the households in form of imported inflation pressures. And remember that inflation has been somewhat high, even if it is driven by currency depreciation and supply side factors for some time. And so, BOJ has to be watchful of potential lift in inflation expectations for the households. And at the same time, they are also watching the underlying inflation impact of this currency depreciation – because what we have seen is that over period workers have been demanding for higher wages. And that is also influenced by what happens to headline inflation, which is driven by currency depreciation. So, I would say that, yes, it's been true up until now. But, when currency reaches these very high levels of range, you are going to see BOJ having to act. Seth Carpenter: Jens, let's shift then to Europe. The ECB had been on a cutting cycle. They came to the end of that. President Lagarde said that she thought the disinflationary process had ended. In your year ahead forecast and a bunch of your writing recently, you've said maybe not so fast. There could still be some more disinflationary, at least risk, in the pipeline for Europe. Can you talk a little bit about what's going on in terms of European inflation and what it could mean for the European Central Bank? Because clearly that's going to be first order important for markets.Jens Eisenschmidt: I think that is right. I think we have a crucial inflation print ahead of us that comes out on the 4th of February. So, early February we get some signal, whether our anticipated fall of headline inflation here below the ECB's target is actually materializing. We think the chances for this are pretty good. There's a mix why this is happening. One is energy. Energy disinflation and base effects. But the other thing is services inflation resets always at the beginning of the year. January and February are the crucial month here. We had significant services upward pressure on prices the last years. And so just from base effects, we think we will see less of that. Another picture or another element of that picture is that wage disinflation is proceeding nicely. We have notably a significant weakness in the export-oriented manufacturing sector in Germany, which is a key sector of setting wages for the country. The country is around 30 percent of the euro area GDP. And here we had seen significant wage gains over the last year. So, the disinflationary trend coming from lower wage gains from this country, that will be very important. And an important signal to watch. Again, that's something we don't know. I think soon we have to watch simply monthly prints here. But a significant print for the first quarter comes out in May, and all of that together makes us believe that the ECB will be in a position to see enough data or have seen enough data that confirms the thesis of inflation staying below target for some time to come. So that they can cut in June and September to a terminal rate of 1.5 percent. Seth Carpenter: That is, I would say, out of consensus relative where the market is. When you talk to investors, whether they're in Europe or around the world, what's the big pushback that you get from them when you are explaining your view on how the ECB is going to act? Jens Eisenschmidt: There are two essential pushbacks. So, one is on substance. So, 'No, actually wages will not come down, and the economy will actually start overheating soon because of the big fiscal stimulus.' That, in a nutshell is the pushback on substance. I would say here, as you would say before, not so fast. Because the fiscal stimulus is only in one country. It's 30 percent. But only 30 percent of the euro area.Plus, there is another pushback, which is on the reaction function of the ECB. Here we tend to agree. So far, we have heard from policy makers that they feel rather comfortable with the 2 percent rate level that they're at. But we think that discussion will change. The moment you are below target in an actual inflation print; the burden of proof is the opposite. Now you have to prove: Is the economy really on a track that inflation will get back up to target without further monetary stimulus? We believe that will be the key debate. And again, happy to, sort of, concede that there is for now not a lot of signaling out of the ECB that further rate cuts are coming. But we believe the first inflation print of the year will change that debate significantly. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so that makes a lot of sense. However, looking at the clock, we are probably out of time for today. So, for now, Michael, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And to the listener, thanks for listening. And be sure to tune in tomorrow for part two of our conversation. And I have to say, if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Au Cœur de l'Histoire est un podcast Europe 1.- Ecriture et présentation : Olivier de Lagarde - Production : Clara Leger- Réalisation : Christophe Daviaud et Nicolas Beaudin- Musique originale : Julien Tharaud  - Visuel : Luowen Wang- Diffusion : Clara Ménard Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.