Podcasts about Lagarde

¡Buenos días, Javi y Mar!' en CADENA 100 informa hoy. Un anticiclón trae buen tiempo a España, con 36ºC en el sur y nubes en el norte. Se inaugura la Torre de Jesús en la Sagrada Familia de Barcelona. El Papa Francisco viaja a Canarias para conocer el drama de la inmigración. La UE plantea subir tipos de interés, primera vez desde 2023, para moderar la inflación, según Lagarde. Julian Barnes gana el Premio Princesa de Asturias de las Letras 2026. Pablo Gallinar vuela en un avión acrobático JAK 52 para Rock in Rio Lisboa. Oyentes comparten sus experiencias del 'mejor día de su vida', con viajes o hallazgos. Prada diseña ropa interior tecnológica para los astronautas de la misión Artemisa. Jimeno y los niños comentan quién conduce peor, papá o mamá. Suenan canciones de Álvaro de Luna, Luis Fonsi con Demi Lovato, The Cardigans y Christina Aguilera.

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today's decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 11 June 2026. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 11 June 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2026/html/mopo_statement_explained_june.en.html Christine Lagarde, Boris Vujčić: Monetary policy statement, 11 June 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2026/html/ecb.is260611~372040d313.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 11 June 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260611~4d41bd5e83.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 11 June 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds260611~5b4603b5aa.en.pdf Macroeconomic projections, 11 June 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/index.en.html European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

Lavoro in aumento ma stipendi in calo per i laureati italianiPiù occupati rispetto a un anno fa, ma meno retribuiti. Con un vantaggio lavorativo e stipendiale che privilegia i laureati rispetto alle laureate e i residenti al Centro-Nord invece che al Sud. È questa, in estrema sintesi, la fotografia che emerge dal XXVIII Rapporto AlmaLaurea su Laurea e Occupazione presentato all università della Basilicata durante il convegno dal titolo Efficacia della formazione universitaria .Nel complesso, le due rilevazioni hanno coinvolto, per i percorsi di laurea, quasi 335 mila persone che hanno completato gli studi nel 2025 in 81 atenei aderenti al Consorzio, e quasi 700mila per gli esiti occupazionali, intervistati a uno, tre e cinque anni dal conseguimento del titolo. Il tasso occupazionale dei laureati è in aumento. A un anno arriva all 81,2% tra chi ha conseguito una laurea di primo livello e all 80,8% nel secondo livello (in crescita, rispettivamente, di +2,6 e +2,2 punti rispetto alla rilevazione precedente). A cinque anni dalla laurea l occupazione tocca il 91,7% nel primo livello, contro il 92,8 per cento del 2024. Nel secondo livello si arriva al 94,4%, che è il valore più alto dell ultimo quindicennio e rappresenta un miglioramento del 4,7% rispetto ai 12 mesi precedenti. Parallelamente, il tasso di disoccupazione a un anno cala al 9,2% nel primo livello e al 9,3% nel secondo. A cinque anni dal titolo la disoccupazione precipita fino al 2,6 per cento. Lo stesso segno positivo registrato sul fronte del lavoro non si registra però sugli stipendi. A un anno dalla laurea la retribuzione mensile netta è in media di 1.491 euro nel primo livello e 1.495 nel secondo; al netto dell inflazione, le retribuzioni reali sono risultate in lieve calo nell ultimo anno (rispettivamente -1,4% e -0,9%). Dopo cinque anni per fortuna il quadro migliora. La retribuzione mensile netta è pari a 1.796 euro per i laureati di primo livello e a 1.903 euro per quelli di secondo livello. Con un aumento dell 1,6% per questi ultimi e una sostanziale stabilità per i primi. Ne parliamo con Massimo Baldini, docente di Scienza delle Finanze presso l'Università di Modena e Reggio EmiliaLa Bce alza costo denaro di 25 punti base Dopo 13 mesi fermi al 2%, i tassi d interesse nell area dell euro sono tornati a salire oggi dello 0,25%, a distanza di un anno esatto dall ultimo taglio. Il tasso sui depositi presso la Bce, mediante il quale il Consiglio direttivo orienta la politica monetaria, passerà dal 2% - livello sul quale è rimasto per 12 mesi- al 2,25 per cento. Come si legge nel comunicato, «Il Consiglio direttivo si impegna a definire la politica monetaria in modo da assicurare che l inflazione si stabilizzi sull obiettivo del 2% a medio termine. In linea con questo impegno ha deciso oggi di innalzare di 25 punti base i tre tassi di interesse di riferimento della Bce. Il conflitto in Medio Oriente sta generando pressioni inflazionistiche e la decisione di aumentare i tassi è solida rispetto a una serie di scenari che delineano come lo shock potrebbe evolvere e incidere sulle prospettive di medio termine per l area dell euro». In conferenza stampa la presidente della Bce Christine Lagarde ha dichiarato: "La decisione che abbiamo preso non è una decisione drastica": un aumento di 25 punti base dei tassi "è una decisione che, chiaramente, invia un segnale ed è necessaria data la situazione economica in cui ci troviamo, l'incertezza che stiamo affrontando, le prospettive inflazionistiche e le proiezioni elaborate dall'Eurosistema". Lagarde ha anche aggiunto: Con una crescita 2026 rivista allo 0,8% da 0,9% precedente "non è che ci troviamo in un contesto in cui la crescita manca o sia minacciata in modo significativo". Lagarde ha citato "i numeri che abbiamo, le prospettive inflazionistiche, i rischi al rialzo sull'inflazione, la solidità della decisione in tutti gli scenari quello negativo, quello molto negativo e quello meno negativo e il fatto che questa decisione regga in tutte le circostanze". Lagarde ha ricordato che per la crescita "si può fare molto di più attraverso riforme strutturali, favorendo un mercato europeo senza ostacoli al commercio, l'unione dei risparmi e degli investimenti e così via". Approfondiamo il tema con Franco Bruni, presidente dell'Ispi e professore emerito del dipartimento di Economia dell'Università Bocconi.Fabi, su Mps priorità alla tutela a lavoratori e professionalità"Le eventuali evoluzioni degli assetti societari che riguardino il Monte dei Paschi di Siena non possono prescindere dalla tutela dell'occupazione, delle professionalità e delle condizioni di lavoro delle lavoratrici e dei lavoratori del Gruppo". Così lunedì il coordinatore Fabi del Gruppo Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Guido Fasano, circa le operazioni che riguardano il settore bancario e coinvolgono Mps. "Le lavoratrici e i lavoratori di Mps - aggiunge - hanno contribuito in modo determinante al rilancio e alla stabilizzazione della banca e rappresentano un patrimonio di competenze e professionalità che deve essere valorizzato e preservato. Riteniamo fondamentale salvaguardare l'integrità del Monte dei Paschi di Siena, la sua identità storica, il suo radicamento nei territori e il valore economico e sociale che continua a rappresentare per il Paese. Qualsiasi progetto futuro dovrà riconoscere e tutelare questo patrimonio, evitando che logiche esclusivamente finanziarie ne compromettano il valore industriale, occupazionale e territoriale. Per questo riteniamo indispensabile un confronto costante con le organizzazioni sindacali, il cui ruolo resta centrale per governare ogni possibile ricaduta sull'occupazione, sull'organizzazione del lavoro e sulle prospettive professionali delle lavoratrici e dei lavoratori. La Fabi continuerà a seguire con la massima attenzione l'evoluzione della situazione, per garantire la tutela dei lavoratori e delle loro famiglie". Dello stesso tenore le dichiarazioni di ieri di Luigi Vaudo, ex coordinatore Fabi in Piazzetta Cuccia, oggi membro della segreteria Fabi in Mps: "È ormai da oltre un anno e mezzo che le lavoratrici e i lavoratori del Gruppo Mediobanca vivono in una situazione di forte incertezza sul proprio futuro". "Prima l'Ops promossa da Mps - ha aggiunto - oggi le nuove operazioni straordinarie che coinvolgono il settore bancario e che potrebbero determinare ulteriori rinvii e nuove attese incertezze per gli oltre 5.000 dipendenti del Gruppo. Ricordiamo che, poco prima dell'avvio dell'Ops di Mps, era stata approvata all'unanimità la piattaforma per il rinnovo del Contratto Integrativo Aziendale. Un percorso negoziale che è stato successivamente sospeso a causa dell'assenza delle necessarie condizioni di governance", afferma. "Dopo diciotto mesi di instabilità e di continui interrogativi sul futuro societario, riteniamo che sia giunto il momento di riportare al centro dell'attenzione le persone che ogni giorno garantiscono con competenza, professionalità e impegno i risultati del Gruppo Mediobanca", sottolinea. Ne parliamo con Lando Maria Sileoni, segretario generale FABI (Federazione Autonoma Bancari Italiani).

Jetzt bei Kraken anmelden und 30 EUR Bonus erhalten: https://bit.ly/kraken-bonusCBDC und der digitale Euro spalten Europas Zentralbanker. EZB-Chefin Lagarde warnt vor Stablecoins wie USDC und Tether, Themen & Timestamps:00:00 Stablecoin-Regulierung in Europa und den USA00:32 USDC, Bankenrisiken und zentrale Reserven01:09 Operation Choke Point 2.002:47 MiCA verändert Europas Stablecoin-Markt04:08 Tokenklassen und MiCA-Reservepflichten06:02 Warum USDT in Europa verdrängt wird07:01 USA, Grossbritannien und der Stablecoin-Streit09:06 Lagardes drei Hauptsorgen

En Cierre de Mercados, análisis con Renta 4 Banco, en el que su directora de análisis, Natalia Aguirre, señala que ve a los mercados muy volátiles con cierta rotación desde la tecnología hacia sectores más cíclicos o que se han quedado rezagados. En su opinión, es una rotación saludable porque no se puede subir continuamente en línea recta. Desde Renta 4 Banco advierten de que sigue habiendo mucha volatilidad en una semana llena de citas muy relevantes como la publicación mañana del IPC americano, al día siguiente la reunión del BCE y el estreno de SpaceX en bolsa el viernes. “Semana muy intensa y cargada de eventos de riesgo”. Sobre la reunión de este jueves del BCE, el mercado prácticamente da por descontada una subida de 25 puntos básicos, que sería la primera subida desde septiembre de 2023. Natalia Aguirre, de Renta 4 Banco, señala que la interpretan como una subida de seguridad en un contexto de shock inflacionario que ha llevado a los precios casi al 3%. Pero más allá de la decisión, lo interesante será escuchar a Christine Lagarde. En este punto, cree que Lagarde tendrá que “hilar” muy fino para no repetir los errores del pasado. El comportamiento de los mercados va a depender más del mensaje que de la subida de tipos. También le preguntamos por Indra y por si podría verse afectada tras el fracaso del proyecto conjunto entre Alemania y Francia para crear un avión de combate europeo, un proyecto en el que participa la española. En este punto, Natalia Aguirre recuerda que se ha cancelado el programa del avión conjunto pero no el futuro sistema de combate aéreo, que es mucho más completo y en el que sí participa la española. Sobre las carteras de referencia de Renta 4 Banco, no ha habido ningún cambio porque piensan que están bien posicionadas para la situación actual de incertidumbre, donde hay muchos factores que pueden mover los mercados. La cartera de 5 grandes sigue compuesta por Aena, CaixaBank, Fluidra, Indra y Banco Santander.

Caroline Lagarde, cheffe de produit chez Withings, était l'invitée de François Sorel dans Tech & Co, la quotidienne, ce jeudi 4 juin. Elle s'est penchée sur le lancement en France de la nouvelle balance connectée de la marque, sur BFM Business. Retrouvez l'émission du lundi au jeudi et réécoutez-la en podcast.

US President Trump said they have been hitting Iran pretty hard and Iran negotiations are going well, while he suggested a deal could happen over the weekend. Though noted that it could go another two or three weeks, Brent Aug'26 -0.7%.Talks between Iran and the US were reportedly still ongoing, and no final decision had been made, according to Fars, citing a member of Tehran's negotiating team.An Iranian negotiating delegation media team member outlined a four-stage proposal for a deal with the US. 1) Ending the war, 2) tangible measures re. the Strait, 3) sanctions and nuclear issues, 4) the establishment of a supervisory committee.APAC stocks traded lower following a negative handover from the US; European bourses are indicative of a softer open.G10s are mostly slightly firmer against the USD; JPY gains slightly on reports that the BoJ is to mull a hike this month, with another possible this year.Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF (May), Swiss CPI (May), EU Retail Sales (Apr), US Challenger Layoffs (May), Jobless Claims (May/30), Revelio PLS (May), and Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators Final (May). Supply from Spain & France. Earnings from Docusign, lululemon & Ciena.Speakers include BoE's Bailey, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Daly, Bowman & Barkin.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

A US official said the US military carried out new strikes on an Iranian military site and shot down multiple Iranian drones that posed a threat to US forces and commercial maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.IRGC said it targeted a US air base in response to the US aggression near Bandar Abbas Airport, while it added that any further US attacks would trigger a more decisive response.Air raid sirens sounded in Kuwait, and the Kuwaiti Army said air defences were intercepting hostile missiles and drone attacks, according to Al Hadath.US President Trump said he was not discussing easing sanctions on Iran and would keep control of Iran's money until it behaves, while adding he was uncomfortable with Russia or China taking Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpileCrude futures edged higher after reports of explosions in Iran's Bandar Abbas; 10yr UST futures continued their slide amid a rebound in oil.APAC stocks were pressured amid a flare-up of geopolitical tensions; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.2%.Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish Retail Sales (Apr), EU Consumer Confidence Final (May), US Initial Jobless Claims (May/23), US GDP 2nd Estimate (Q1), US Core PCE (Apr), US Durable Goods Orders (Apr), US Real Consumer Spending 2nd Estimate (Q1), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), ECB Minutes (Apr), SARB Policy Announcement (May). Speakers include Fed's Williams & Barkin, BoE's Breeden, ECB's Lane, Lagarde, Cipollone, Schnabel & SNB's Schlegel. Supply from the UK, Italy & US, Earnings from Dell.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

La presidenta del BCE, Christine Lagarde, avisa que defender la independencia de los bancos centrales es aún más importante en un orden mundial cada vez más complejo. Haciendo referencia a Napoleón Bonaparte, quien en 1800 fundó el Banco de Francia y, años más tarde, a medida que aumentaban las exigencias del Estado, fue retirando gradualmente la independencia que había concedido, Lagarde ha señalado que “es precisamente esta tentación la que probablemente se agudizará en el periodo que se avecina”. Y el BCE decidió mantener los tipos de interés sin cambios en su última reunión, celebrada a finales de abril, dado que no existía una “urgencia acuciante” para una subida, según recogen las actas.. aunque la decisión fue muy ajustada. La confianza del consumidor de la zona euro repunta ligeramente en mayo y sube hasta los -19 puntos en comparación con los -20,6 del mes anterior. Hablaremos de la Ley sobre la IA que ha aprobado esta semana el Consejo de Ministros con Giovanni Alessandrello, Socio y Mananing Director de BIP Iberia. Y los temas de la tertulia, a debate con Javier Domínguez, de aurigabonos.es

US President Trump told Chinese President Xi that they've had a fantastic relationship and they are going to have a fantastic future together.Chinese President Xi told US President Trump it is a pleasure to meet him in Beijing, while he has always believed that the common interests between China and the US outweigh the differences.US Secretary of State Rubio said the US hopes to convince China to play a more active role in persuading Iran to back down on its actions in the Gulf.An Iranian NSC spokesperson said new confrontations with the US are possible, and they are preparing a law regarding navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.APAC stocks traded mixed; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.7%.Looking ahead, highlights include Trump-Xi Summit (14th-15th May); UK GDP (Mar/Q1), Industrial Production (Mar), Spanish HICP Final (Apr), US Retail Sales (Apr), Export/Import Prices (Apr), Jobless Claims (May 9), Atlanta Fed GDP. Speakers include ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Pill, Fed's Logan, Schmid, Hammack & Williams. Earnings from Telefonica, Burberry & National Grid.Holiday: Ascension Day Holiday (Closures in Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark).Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Le metteur en scène Ludovic Lagarde met en scène le texte du dramaturge Martin Crimp Des hommes endormis. Une pièce à voir à l'Athénée jusqu'au 24 mai.  Amour, boulot, pouvoir, désir : deux couples tâtonnent, tentent de faire le point, pour se dire… ou ne pas se dire des choses, le temps d'une nuit, une nuit propice à la parole et à la divagation.  Le texte de Crimp est fait de conversations, un peu hachées, un peu fragmentaires, où l'exploration du thème de la violence n'est jamais loin. La pièce démarre à deux heures du matin : Paul, qui crée de la danse, et Julia, critique d'art contemporain. Ce couple de quinquagénaires sans enfants mais qui a réussi socialement s'interroge sur son avenir quand surviennent Joséphine – assistante de Julia – et Tilman, jeune couple, futurs parents, invités par Julia. Invités : Ludovic Lagarde, metteur en scène. Il a mis en scène de nombreux auteurs du répertoire – Shakespeare, Tchékhov, Brecht –, mais aussi des auteurs plus contemporains tels que Samuel Beckett, Harold Pinter, Sarah Kane ou encore Olivier Cadiot avec lequel il a beaucoup collaboré. Il met en scène Des hommes endormis.  Laurent Poitrenaux, comédien. Il travaille avec Ludovic Lagarde depuis près de 40 ans. Il joue le rôle de Paul dans la pièce.  Le texte Des hommes endormis a été écrit par Martin Crimp, un auteur britannnique contemporain né en 1956. Dans ses textes, il aborde, avec un humour grinçant, la question de la violence. Il est l'un des auteurs de théâtre vivants parmi les plus importants. La pièce Des hommes endormis a été créé en 2018 pour la troupe du Deutsche Schauspielhaus à Hambourg. Le texte a été traduit en français par Alice Zeniter, qui a consacré sa thèse à l'auteur britannique et publié aux éditions de l'Arche.  À voir au Théâtre de l'Athénée-Louis Jouvet jusqu'au 24 mai.  Programmation musicale : L'artiste Ofé et son titre Je sais que tu m'aimes.

Le metteur en scène Ludovic Lagarde met en scène le texte du dramaturge Martin Crimp Des hommes endormis. Une pièce à voir à l'Athénée jusqu'au 24 mai.  Amour, boulot, pouvoir, désir : deux couples tâtonnent, tentent de faire le point, pour se dire… ou ne pas se dire des choses, le temps d'une nuit, une nuit propice à la parole et à la divagation.  Le texte de Crimp est fait de conversations, un peu hachées, un peu fragmentaires, où l'exploration du thème de la violence n'est jamais loin. La pièce démarre à deux heures du matin : Paul, qui crée de la danse, et Julia, critique d'art contemporain. Ce couple de quinquagénaires sans enfants mais qui a réussi socialement s'interroge sur son avenir quand surviennent Joséphine – assistante de Julia – et Tilman, jeune couple, futurs parents, invités par Julia. Invités : Ludovic Lagarde, metteur en scène. Il a mis en scène de nombreux auteurs du répertoire – Shakespeare, Tchékhov, Brecht –, mais aussi des auteurs plus contemporains tels que Samuel Beckett, Harold Pinter, Sarah Kane ou encore Olivier Cadiot avec lequel il a beaucoup collaboré. Il met en scène Des hommes endormis.  Laurent Poitrenaux, comédien. Il travaille avec Ludovic Lagarde depuis près de 40 ans. Il joue le rôle de Paul dans la pièce.  Le texte Des hommes endormis a été écrit par Martin Crimp, un auteur britannnique contemporain né en 1956. Dans ses textes, il aborde, avec un humour grinçant, la question de la violence. Il est l'un des auteurs de théâtre vivants parmi les plus importants. La pièce Des hommes endormis a été créé en 2018 pour la troupe du Deutsche Schauspielhaus à Hambourg. Le texte a été traduit en français par Alice Zeniter, qui a consacré sa thèse à l'auteur britannique et publié aux éditions de l'Arche.  À voir au Théâtre de l'Athénée-Louis Jouvet jusqu'au 24 mai.  Programmation musicale : L'artiste Ofé et son titre Je sais que tu m'aimes.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Vice Premier He held talks. Following the conclusion, Chinese state media reported that China and the US held candid, in-depth and constructive exchanges.European bourses rebounded from Tuesday's selloff, DAX 40 outperform following a heavy earnings docket; US equity futures gain.GBP mixed against its peers as Starmer appears on a firmer footing but risks remain into on the return of Parliament.Global fixed benchmarks are flat/incrementally firmer, Gilts find reprieve after recent pressure.Crude lower but off lows after taking a breather overnight; IEA said world oil supply to fall by 3.9mln bpd in 2026. Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI (Apr), BoC Minutes (Apr), OPEC MOMR (May). Speakers include BoE's Mann, Fed's Collins & Kashkari, ECB's Lane & Lagarde. Supply from the US. Earnings from Cisco Systems.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said they are only going to make a good deal regarding Iran and will have a long talk with Chinese President Xi about the Iran war.Iran will not enter the second round of talks with the US without fulfilling five confidence-building conditions, local media reported.US President Trump posted that NVIDIA CEO Huang is on Air Force One along with a number of CEOs of large US companies.UK government whips believe Wes Streeting will make his move on Thursday to avoid clashing with the King's Speech.APAC stocks traded mixed; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.8%.Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish Inflation Final (Apr), French Inflation Final (Apr), EZ Employment Change (Q1), Industrial Production (Mar), GDP 2nd Estimate (Q1), US PPI (Apr), BoC Minutes (Apr), Riksbank Minutes (May), IEA OMR (May), OPEC MOMR (May). Speakers include BoE's Mann, Fed's Collins & Kashkari, ECB's Lane & Lagarde. Supply from Australia, Italy, Germany & US. Earnings from Cisco Systems, Alibaba, Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Allianz, E.ON, Merck & RWE.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

13/5 Trump in Cina per il “Business summit” con Xi, sull'Air Force one anche Jensen Huang. Prima di partire: “non ci serve l'aiuto della Cina per la pace con l'Iran, la situazione è sotto controllo”. Focus su commercio, terre rare, prodotti agricoli, aerei. Cosa c'è sul tavolo negoziale delle due super potenze. Futures in verde, Brent e Wti in calo. Salgono oro e argento, Bitcoin sopra 81.000$. Ieri, Rally in pausa, a pesare il ribasso dei semiconduttori e la forza gravitazionale dei rendimenti dei Bond: decennale sfiora il 4,5% (livello che aveva portato Trump a una pausa sui dazi ad aprile 2025). Aprile, inflazione sopra le attese al 3,8% su spinta energia e beni alimentari. A sorprendere il dato Core al 2,8%: salgono i rendimenti dei bond, il mercato annulla le chance di un taglio dei tassi nel 2026. Possibilità di un rialzo a dicembre al 35%. Oggi ultimo voto al Senato per la conferma di Kevin Warsh alla Fed. Tre motivi per cui questa non è una bolla AI (o almeno non ancora): LPL Financial. Ebay rifiuta l'offerta di Gamestop da 56mld: né attrattiva né credibile.  Anthropic verso nuovo round finanziamenti da 30mld $: valutazione a 900 mld. Altman contro Musk al processo: richieste controllo post-mortem da “far drizzare i capelli”. CME la potenza computazionale diventa un asset finanziario.  Spotify  *** Questo episodio è offerto da Scalable Capital   Investire comporta rischi  Interesse p.a. lordo variabile su liquidità illimitata. Condizioni e distribuzione della liquidità su scalable.capital/conto-deposito-non-vincolato*** Asia i listini ripartono, Nikkei sfiora l'1% anche il Kopsi recupera il rosso e sale grazie a SK Hynix. Samsung da -6% a territorio positivo: manca accordo con i sindacati, rischia sciopero di 18giorni di 50mila lavoratori. A rischio supply chain mondiale memory chip. AI trade perchè Alibaba e Tencent rimangono indietro? India dazi al 15% su import oro e argento per proteggere riserve valuta estera e rupia. In Europa futures in verde. Stasera parla Lagarde, Nagel intervenire se aspettative inflazione disancorate. Oggi pil 1Q Eurozona e produzione industriale. Starmer: altro Liz Truss moment? Attenzione al Gilt nel giorno del discorso di Re Carlo. Focus su banche italiane, Recorsati, Avio, Inwit. Conti di Snam, Hera, Geox, Rcs BLACK BOX SCRIPT NEWSLETTER: https://open.substack.com/pub/blackboxchora/p/cose-black-box-script?r=66d6vk&utm_medium=ios Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

durée : 00:16:24 - Les émissions culturelles de France Culture - par : Marie Labory - Le texte "Des hommes endormis" de Martin Crimp prend vie sur la scène du Théâtre de l'Athénée – Louis Jouvet dans une traduction d'Alice Zeniter, mis en scène par Ludovic Lagarde pour quatre interprètes. - réalisation : Laurence Malonda, Boris Pineau, Aïssatou N'Doye, Jules Barbier, Zohra Vignais, Lise Ripoche, Mathi Adjinsoff - invités : Marie Sorbier Productrice du "Point Culture" sur France Culture, et rédactrice en chef de I/O, Philippe Chevilley Chef du service culture des Echos Vous aimez ce podcast ? Pour écouter tous les épisodes sans limite, rendez-vous sur Radio France

11/5 Trump rifiuta la controproposta iraniana: “totalmente inaccettabile”. Nethanyau: la guerra non è finita, l'uranio va rimosso. Corre il Brent oltre 105$. Scorte petrolio: minimi dal 2018. Jet fuel europeo ai minimi da sei anni. Diesel Usa sui massimi, Wright pronti a sospendere imposte. Hormuz: passa una nave del Qatar che trasporta Gnl. Altri attacchi di droni alle navi. Futures misti: salgono dollaro e rendimento Treasury, Bitcoin sopra 80.000. Settimana nel segno di trimestrali e dati macro (inflazione, PPI, vendite detttafglio). Fed, venerdì ultimo giorno di Powell (che rimane nel board) per Pimco e Franklin Templeton dovrà alzare i tassi. Corsa inarrestabile dei chip: performance e analisi. L'Inizio di un nuovo super-ciclo? Michael Burry: bolla come durante le dot.com. Cerebras il competitor di Nvidia prepara Ipo: forchetta sale a 150-160$ vista domanda. Aspettando Trump e Xi: le quattro “T” sul tavolo: Trade, Teheran, Technolgy, Taiwan. Per l'Economist è il G2 del sospetto.  YouTube  *** Questo episodio è offerto da Scalable Capital   Investire comporta rischi  Interesse p.a. lordo variabile su liquidità illimitata. Condizioni e distribuzione della liquidità su scalable.capital/conto-deposito-non-vincolato*** Asia mista, Nikkei e Hang Seng in rosso. Kospi +4% di nuovo da record con nuovi massimi di SK Hynix e Samsung, In Cina sale l' Inflazione ad aprile +1,2% sopra attese; Prezzi produzione +2,8%. Import petrolio scende del 20% rispetto mese precedente. Oggi Bessent in Giappone: azione coordinata sullo Yen? PBOC fixing Yuan ai massimi da tre anni In Europa futures in verde. Focus su dati macro (inflazione), attesa per le parole di Lagarde. Bce, De Guindos: intervento Germania su Unicredit - Commerzbank contro spirito mercato unico. Armani verso vendita tripartita del 15% a L'Oreal, LVMH e EssilorLuxottica. Focus su: Delfin, Intesa SP, Diasorin, Tenaris, automotive.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

US President Trump said the war could go on for another two to three weeks; time is not of the essence.US officials say the military is closer to resuming combat operations than 24 hours ago, Fox reported.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted, "As talks are making progress with Pakistan's gracious effort, the US should be wary of being dragged back into a quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE."RBA announcement saw a near-unanimous vote to hike the Cash Rate, coupled with the net hawkish statement, which highlighted inflation concerns from the ongoing Iranian war.European equity futures point to a lower open, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.2% after cash markets fell 2.2% on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss Inflation (Apr), US Building Permits Final (Mar), Canadian Balance of Trade (Mar), Canadian PMI (Apr), US PMI Final (Apr), US ISM Services (Apr), US JOLTS (Mar), US New Home Sales (Mar), US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism (May), New Zealand Unemployment Rate (Q1). Speakers include RBA's Bullock, ECB's Lagarde, Lane, Fed's Bowman, Barr. Supply from Germany. Earnings from AMD, AMC, Strategy, Tempus AI, Shopify, PayPal, Pfizer, HSBC, Leonardo, and Infineon.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said the war could go on for another two to three weeks; time is not of the essence.US officials say the military is closer to resuming combat operations than 24 hours ago, Fox reported.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted, "As talks are making progress with Pakistan's gracious effort, the US should be wary of being dragged back into a quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE."European and US equity futures are broadly firmer; Palantir -2% as commercial revenue fell short of expectations.DXY is flat, JPY experiences volatile two-way action, AUD pressured post-RBA, where it hiked by 25bps, statement was net-hawkish, but Governor Bullock suggests there is room now to wait and see.Gilts gap lower on return from a Bank Holiday, USTs and Bunds relatively contained.Crude pares Monday's gains, to the benefit of XAU.Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits Final (Mar), Canadian Balance of Trade (Mar), Canadian PMI (Apr), US PMI Final (Apr), US ISM Services (Apr), US JOLTS (Mar), US New Home Sales (Mar), US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism (May), New Zealand Unemployment Rate (Q1). Speakers include ECB's Lagarde, Lane, Fed's Bowman, Barr. Supply from Germany. Earnings from AMD, AMC, Strategy, Tempus AI, Shopify, PayPal, Pfizer.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today's decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 30 April 2026. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 30 April 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2026/html/mopo_statement_explained_april.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 30 April 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2026/html/ecb.is260430~f99cb123a8.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 30 April 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260430~81b7179e6f.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 30 April 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds260430~1c397fa90c.en.pdf European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

durée : 00:15:48 - Le 13/14 - par : Jérôme Cadet - Comment parler d'une maladie grave ? Nous sommes en plein mois de mobilisation contre la maladie de Parkinson. Et depuis quelques jours, l'association France Parkinson diffuse une campagne pour sensibiliser le grand public et appeler aux dons. - réalisation : Cecilia Arbona, Camille Poux-Jalaguier Vous aimez ce podcast ? Pour écouter tous les épisodes sans limite, rendez-vous sur Radio France

US President Trump said the US have been asked to hold their attack on Iran until such time as its leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal.It was reported that Iran received 'some sign' the US is ready to break the blockade, spurring mild risk-on at the time.UKMTO reported two separate incidents near Oman and Iran, with the latter spurring upticks in the crude complex.European bourses opened higher but have since trundled lower, ASM International +8% after a strong Q1 and guidance; US equity futures gain.USD tracks oil prices, NZD repricing continues and Sterling unreactive to mostly in-line inflation data.Fixed income follows energy but is relatively contained thus far, Gilts marginally underperform.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Consumer Confidence (Apr), CBRT Policy Announcement (Apr). Speakers include ECB's Lagarde & Cipollone. Supply from US. Earnings from Vertiv, Boeing, GE Vernova, AT&T, Tesla, ServiceNow, IBM.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said the US have been asked to hold their attack on Iran until such time as its leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal.More recently, it was reported that Iran received 'some sign' the US is ready to break the blockade – a rise in sentiment was seen.UKMTO said it received information about an incident 15 nautical miles to the northeast of Oman in which a container vessel was approached by a single IRGC gunboat.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.9% on Tuesday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Inflation (Mar), South African Inflation (Mar), EZ Consumer Confidence (Apr), CBRT Policy Announcement (Apr), Bank of Indonesia Policy Announcement (Apr). Speakers include BoE's Breeden, ECB's Lagarde, Elderson, Lane & Cipollone. Supply from Germany & US. Earnings from Vertiv, Boeing, GE Vernova, AT&T, Tesla, ServiceNow, IBM, L'Oreal, Danone, Accor & Akzo Nobel.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

durée : 00:09:02 - par : Rodolphe Bruneau-Boulmier, Emilie Munera - Dans ce nouvel album monographique paru chez NoMadMusic, le compositeur Bernard Cavanna métamorphose des lieder de Schubert avec un accompagnement violon, violoncelle et accordéon, tandis que ses deux trios écrits pour la même formation prolongent le dialogue entre tradition et modernité. Vous aimez ce podcast ? Pour écouter tous les épisodes sans limite, rendez-vous sur Radio France

AP reported that effort to extend the US-Iran ceasefire has made progress with mediators aiming to extend for at least another two weeks. Both sides gave an “in principle agreement” to extend the ceasefire.The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days, WaPo reported citing US officials. This move aims to pressure Iran while the US mulls the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks.European bourses mixed, Luxury suffers on KER FP and RMS FP while ASML raises FY guidance; US equity futures flat with Morgan Stanley and BofA ahead. DXY muted, GBP/USD retreats from 1.36 with UK GDP later in the week.Global fixed benchmarks trade cautiously awaiting President Trump and central bank speakers.Commodities tread water in anticipation of a second US-Iran meeting.Looking ahead, highlights include US Export/Import Prices (Mar), Fed Beige Book (Apr). Speakers include US President Trump, Fed's Barr, Hammack & Bowman, ECB's Lagarde, Cipollone, Nagel & Schnabel, BoE's Bailey, Greene, SNB's Schlegel, RBA's Hauser & RBNZ's Breman. Earnings from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he views the war as being very close to over, according to Fox.US President Trump said he isn't thinking about extending the ceasefire and doesn't think it will be necessary, according to reports citing an ABC reporter on X.US Vice President JD Vance said they are negotiating with Iran and the ceasefire is holding, while he also stated Iranian negotiators wanted to make a deal, and he feels good about where they are.US President Trump's full interview on Fox Business will be aired on April 15th at 06:00EDT/11:00BST.APAC stocks were mostly higher; European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1%Looking ahead, highlights include French HICP Final (Mar), EZ Industrial Production (Feb), US Export/Import Prices (Mar), Fed Beige Book (Apr). Speakers include Fed's Barr & Bowman, ECB's Lagarde, Cipollone & Schnabel, BoE's Bailey, SNB's Schlegel, RBA's Hauser & RBNZ's Breman. Supply from Germany. Earnings from Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Hermes.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Next round of talks between US and Iran could take place this week or early next week, according to the Iranian embassy official in Pakistan.US VP Vance said we made some progress in Iran talks, and he wouldn't say things went wrong, while he added Iranians moved in our direction in talks, but not far enough.A US official said there is “continued engagement” with Iran and forward motion on trying to get to an agreement, while a senior US official also said talks between the US and Iran are continuing even now and there is progress in trying to reach an agreement, according to Axios.Energy eases amid continued reports of further US-Iran talks.Global equities gain on positive risk tone; US banks ahead.DXY soften, Kiwi continues to outperform while JPY helped modestly by reports BoJ is to increase price forecast.Fixed benchmarks gain, heavy speaker slate ahead. Looking ahead, highlights include US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Mar), ADP Weekly Change, PPI (Mar), South Korean Export/Import Prices (Mar), IMF World Economic Outlook Press Briefing (Apr). Speakers include BoE's Bailey & Greene, ECB's Lane, Cipollone & Lagarde, RBNZ's Breman, Fed's Goolsbee, Barr, Paulson, Collins & Barkin, Earnings from JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Citi, J&J, Wells Fargo & Kering.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US is reportedly eyeing a potential second round of in-person talks with Iran as the blockade takes hold, according to CNN.AP reported that the US and Iran could be headed toward a second round of talks, which could happen on Thursday.US VP Vance said we made some progress in Iran talks, and he wouldn't say things went wrong, while he added Iranians moved in our direction in talks, but not far enough.A US official said there is “continued engagement” with Iran and forward motion on trying to get to an agreement, while a senior US official also said talks between the US and Iran are continuing even now and there is progress in trying to reach an agreement, according to Axios.An IRGC spokesperson said that if the war continues, they will unveil capabilities that the enemy has no idea about, according to SNN.APAC stocks traded higher as risk sentiment was underpinned by hopes regarding US-Iran peace talks; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4%.Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF Final (Mar), German Wholesale Prices (Mar), Spanish HICP Final (Mar), US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Mar), ADP Weekly Change, PPI (Mar), South Korean Export/Import Prices (Mar), IEA OMR (Apr), IMF World Economic Outlook Press Briefing (Apr). Speakers include BoE's Mann, Bailey & Greene, ECB's Lane, Cipollone & Lagarde, RBNZ's Breman, Fed's Goolsbee, Barr, Paulson, Collins & Barkin, Supply from the Netherlands & Germany. Earnings from JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Citi, J&J, Wells Fargo, BMW & Kering.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

We've curated a special 10-minute version of the podcast for those in a hurry. Here you can listen to the full episode: https://podcasts.apple.com/no/podcast/christine-lagarde-central-bank-independence-geopolitical/id1614211565?i=1000756916046&l=nbNicolai Tangen sits down with Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, for a wide-ranging conversation on the forces reshaping the global economy. They discuss geopolitical fragmentation, the impact of US policy shifts on Europe, energy vulnerability, the green transition, and the future of Europe's social democratic model. Lagarde also reflects on the ECB's mandate amid rising complexity and what it means to lead with clarity in uncertain times. Tune in for an insightful conversation!In Good Company is hosted by Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management. New full episodes every Wednesday, and don't miss our Highlight episodes every Friday. The production team for this episode includes Isabelle Karlsson and PLAN-B's Niklas Figenschau Johansen and Sebastian Langvik-Hansen. Background research was conducted by Une Solheim. Watch the episode on YouTube: Norges Bank Investment Management - YouTubeWant to learn more about the fund? The fund | Norges Bank Investment Management (nbim.no)Follow Nicolai Tangen on LinkedIn: Nicolai Tangen | LinkedInFollow NBIM on LinkedIn: Norges Bank Investment Management: Administrator for bedriftsside | LinkedInFollow NBIM on Instagram: Explore Norges Bank Investment Management on Instagram Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, a semana foi marcada por sinais mistos no conflito no Oriente Médio. O início da semana trouxe uma leitura mais construtiva, com sinalização de negociações e adiamento de ataques a infraestrutura energética, mas ao longo dos dias houve intensificação das ofensivas e aumento das ameaças. O estreito de Ormuz seguiu com fluxo bastante restrito, com relatos de interceptação de navios e restrições operacionais. A incerteza sobre a duração do conflito e seus impactos segue elevada, especialmente pelo canal de energia. Na política monetária, a comunicação do Banco Central Europeu ganhou destaque, com a Lagarde adotando tom mais hawk e sinalizando a preocupação da entidade com o risco inflacionário, afirmando poder agir nas próximas reuniões, enquanto a Schnabel reforçou a importância de não agir precipitadamente, nem ignorando, nem antecipando os efeitos da guerra. O banco central do México cortou os juros em 0,25%. No Brasil, o IPCA-15 voltou a surpreender para cima, com alta de 0,44%, acima das expectativas, impactado principalmente por passagens aéreas, apesar de composição dos núcleos um pouco melhor. A ata e o Relatório de Inflação reforçaram a mensagem de calibragem e serenidade do Banco Central, com o ritmo de cortes dependente do preço do petróleo. A PNAD indicou leve alta do desemprego, mas ainda próxima das mínimas históricas, com massa salarial real em crescimento. Nos EUA, o juro de 5 anos abriu 6 bps, e as bolsas tiveram desempenho misto – S&P 500 -2,12%, Nasdaq -3,20% e Russell 2000 +0,46%. No Brasil, o jan/35 abriu 10 bps, o Ibovespa subiu 3,03% e o real valorizou 1,47%.  Na próxima semana, atenção ao payroll nos EUA e à inflação da Zona do Euro, além dos desdobramentos do conflito. No Brasil, destaque para o Caged, produção industrial e dados de crédito.

n Capital Intereconomía analizamos un escenario de mercados marcado por la incertidumbre económica y geopolítica. En el primer análisis, José Lizán, gestor en Quadriga Asset Managers, explica qué esperar de bolsa, bonos y dólar a corto plazo, con un mercado que empieza a descontar un mayor riesgo de recesión en Estados Unidos. Además, el mensaje del BCE gana peso tras las palabras de Lagarde, que acerca la posibilidad de subidas de tipos y refuerza el compromiso de controlar la inflación. En este contexto, sectores como telecos y utilities ganan atractivo por su carácter defensivo, mientras las recompras de acciones alcanzan cifras récord a nivel global. El programa incluye el repaso a la prensa económica y el análisis internacional con Mario Fernando Pérez Melero, que aborda la evolución del conflicto: Irán rechaza la oferta de EE. UU. para poner fin a la guerra, mientras continúan los intentos de mediación y Washington eleva la presión con nuevas amenazas de intensificar los ataques.

US President Trump said they are having tremendous success in Iran and that Iran has no leaders left, while he said the US is talking to the right people and they want to make a deal. Trump said they are in negotiations right now with Iran and that Iran is talking sense.US President Trump said they are going to make a deal with Iran, and Iran gave the US a significant prize/present worth a tremendous amount of money, which is related to the Strait of Hormuz. Trump did not offer any more details.US special envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner are working on a mechanism which aims for a one-month ceasefire, while this would be very similar to understandings in Gaza and Lebanon, and a 15-point agreement will be negotiated during the month of a possible ceasefire.United Command of Iranian Armed Forces spokesperson said the US is negotiating with itself, according to IRNA.APAC stocks traded higher; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.9%.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Inflation Report (Feb), German Ifo (Mar), US Import/Export Prices (Feb), SNB Quarterly Bulletin (Q1). Speakers include ECB's Lagarde & Lane, BoE's Greene, Fed's Miran, Supply from Italy, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

De Europese Centrale Bank heeft overduidelijk geleerd van haar fouten in 2022 en dat stemt macro-econoom Edin Mujagic tevreden. ‘Uit alles kun je opmaken: de ECB is echt niet van plan die fout uit 2022 nog een keer te herhalen.’ Je bent in Frankfurt bij de ECB, bij de jaarlijkse conferentie voor ECB-watchers. Wat is dat voor conferentie? Het is een ontmoeting van mensen uit de hele wereld die de ECB volgen. Ook de mensen van de centrale bank zijn daarbij. President Lagarde opent de conferentie met een toespraak. En het is de inhoud van die toespraak waar je tevreden over bent? ...See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nicolai Tangen sits down with Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, for a wide-ranging conversation on the forces reshaping the global economy. They discuss geopolitical fragmentation, the impact of US policy shifts on Europe, energy vulnerability, the green transition, and the future of Europe's social democratic model. Lagarde also reflects on the ECB's mandate amid rising complexity and what it means to lead with clarity in uncertain times. Tune in for an insightful conversation!In Good Company is hosted by Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management. New full episodes every Wednesday, and don't miss our Highlight episodes every Friday. The production team for this episode includes Isabelle Karlsson and PLAN-B's Niklas Figenschau Johansen and Sebastian Langvik-Hansen. Background research was conducted by Une Solheim. Watch the episode on YouTube: Norges Bank Investment Management - YouTubeWant to learn more about the fund? The fund | Norges Bank Investment Management (nbim.no)Follow Nicolai Tangen on LinkedIn: Nicolai Tangen | LinkedInFollow NBIM on LinkedIn: Norges Bank Investment Management: Administrator for bedriftsside | LinkedInFollow NBIM on Instagram: Explore Norges Bank Investment Management on Instagram Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

durée : 00:11:54 - Les Nuits de France Culture - par : Philippe Garbit - Découvrir les Menhirs de Carnac, les Châteaux de Bussy-Rabutin et de Tanlay en suivant le guide ? Une enquête de Pierre de Lagarde en 1962 sur un métier très important pour la découverte et la sauvegarde de sites historiques dans le cinquième volet de "Chefs-d'oeuvre en péril : Suivez le guide !" - réalisation : Virginie Mourthé

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today's decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 19 March 2026. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 19 March 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2026/html/mopo_statement_explained_march.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 19 March 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2026/html/ecb.is260319~93b1cbad97.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 19 March 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260319~3057739775.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 19 March 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds260319~30247d385d.en.pdf Macroeconomic projections, 19 March 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202603_eurosystemstaff~da4f97a747.en.html European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

La guerra en Oriente Medio se intensifica con ataques a yacimientos de gas y una refinería israelí, lo que eleva los precios energéticos. Irán advierte de su capacidad bélica. El FMI y el BCE alertan sobre el impacto global; Lagarde eleva la previsión de inflación y mantiene los tipos ante la incertidumbre. Los líderes europeos en Bruselas buscan mitigar el impacto económico y abordan la situación en Ucrania, donde Hungría veta un préstamo para Kiev, a pesar del compromiso de Zelenski con el suministro de petróleo ruso. En España, Pedro Sánchez justifica la no presentación de los Presupuestos Generales del Estado por la urgencia de la guerra, decisión criticada por la oposición. Margarita Robles informa sobre la evacuación de militares españoles de Irak y la difícil situación de los cascos azules en Líbano. La borrasca Terese azota Canarias y la costa andaluza con lluvias torrenciales y fuertes vientos, causando incidencias y cancelaciones de vuelos. El índice VDEM ya no clasifica a ...

Netanyahu afirma que Trump le pide no atacar campos iraníes y que Israel debilita el régimen. Feijóo desvincula al PP de un manifiesto de exdirigentes de VOX. Julio Martínez aplaza su comparecencia en el Senado. La Generalitat catalana aprueba 6.000 millones para nóminas tras retirar sus presupuestos. El embajador de EE. UU. visita Rota. El rey Felipe VI reconoce "abusos" en la conquista de América, generando debate. Se valora el gesto a México, defendiendo el legado español (mestizaje y civilización). La ausencia de disculpa oficial a López Obrador tensa las relaciones, excluyendo al rey de la toma de posesión de Sheinbaum. La crisis en Oriente Medio dispara petróleo (más de 110 dólares) y gas (30%), anticipando una Semana Santa con altos precios energéticos. El BCE mantiene tipos, pero Lagarde prevé mayor inflación. El gobierno pospone presupuestos, priorizando decreto antiinflacionista, entre críticas opositoras. Gasto medio en Semana Santa supera los 500 euros en turismo nacional. ...

Iran's armed forces said Iran's retaliation against attacks on its energy infrastructure is not yet complete, SNN reported; any repeat of such attacks will lead to a far stronger retaliation against the enemy, enemy infrastructure and that of their allies.US President Trump said Israel violently lashed out at Iran's major facility and that the US did not know about the attack, while he said there will be no more attacks by Israel on South Pars; added that the US will retaliate by massively blowing up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field if Qatar's LNG is attacked again.FX mixed amid the central bank bonanza; SNB, Riksbank and BoJ all left rates unchanged, as expected, while the BoE and ECB await. Crude surges as attacks in the Persian Gulf threaten long-term damage to major energy facilities.European equities suffer as Energy continues to surge; US equity futures follow suit, Micron slips after increasing capex plans.Fixed income weighed on energy upside and hawkish Chair Powell.Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (Mar/14), Atlanta Fed GDP, New Zealand Trade Balance (Feb), BoE & ECB Policy Announcements. Speakers include ECB's Lagarde. Supply from the US. Earnings from FedEx.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said Israel violently lashed out at Iran's major facility and that the US did not know about the attack, while he said there will be no more attacks by Israel on South Pars.US President Trump said the US will retaliate by massively blowing up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field if Qatar's LNG is attacked again.The Fed left rates on hold as expected in an 11-1 vote split, while dot plots were largely unchanged, with little reaction seen.Fed Chair Powell noted how the Fed will not look through energy-induced inflation lightly and stated that rate hikes in the future were discussed, but caveated that it is not the base case for the vast majority.BoJ kept its short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, as expected, with the decision made by an 8-1 vote as Takata dissented and voted for a 25bps hike.APAC stocks declined as the region took its cue from the losses stateside; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.7%.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs/Average Earnings (Jan), US Initial Jobless Claims (Mar/14), Atlanta Fed GDP, New Zealand Trade Balance (Feb), Riksbank, SNB, BoE & ECB, Policy Announcements. Speakers include BoJ's Ueda, SNB's Schlegel, Riksbank's Thedeen & ECB's Lagarde. Supply from Spain, France & US. Earnings from FedEx & Alibaba.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

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Our podcast has a new name – welcome to Euro Matters! In the first episode of our In Conversation series, President Christine Lagarde shares her own path to financial knowledge and explains why knowing about money matters – especially for women. Recorded on 17 February 2026 and published on 3 March 2026. In this episode: 01:10 – Why do financial topics make people feel uncomfortable? 02:15 – President Lagarde's early experiences with managing finances 03:15 – Why is low financial knowledge a problem in Europe? And why does it matter for women in particular? 05:38 – How can women build confidence and take ownership of their finances? 06:40 – President Lagarde talks about the first time she realised that financial independence matters 07:50 – President Lagarde's first jobs 08:55 – The best financial advice President Lagarde has ever received 09:52 – The financial advice President Lagarde would give to her younger self 10:25 – President Lagarde shares her hot tip ECB web page on the gender gap https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb-and-you/financial_literacy_europe/The-gender-gap-in-financial-literacy/html/index.en.html Financial literacy in Europe https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb-and-you/financial_literacy_europe/html/index.en.html ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/ EuroSteps Walking Challenge https://www.walk15.app/en/download

The US State Department advised its citizens in Northern Mexico to ‘shelter in place', as the cartels took their reprisals, following a major Mexican security forces operation against gang kingpin El Mencho - and then another called El Tuli. It's all LOL, until you realise that this is just the start. By targeting the cartels, the US has poked a hornet's nest; And the hornets are on cocaine. Meanwhile - have you paid a US steel tariff in recent months? Was it over 30%? If so, you could be due a refund. Just dial 1-800-WHITE HOUSE to see if you may be eligible. The Supreme Court acknowledged that sorting out the tariffs strike-down would be ‘a complete mess'. But after the mess, the reckoning: deep down, this is a story about the US balance of payments. Finally, Christine Lagarde is stepping down from the ECB. Emmanuel Macron' s Napoleonic pincer movement is that this frees the way for a Lagarde Presidential Run – and stops a National Rally government from appointing its own bank governor in 2028. But with these kinds of cynical machinations now effectively running the European elite, the entire Centrist establishment may be embarking on its Russia Campaign. All of this. Coming up. For premium subscribers. That's right - it's premium week. If you're not a premium subscriber, you can sign up on our new Metternich Tier on Patreon, for eight dollars, pounds or Euros a month. patreon.com/multipolarityFor clarity, we should point out that founder subscribers still on the old Palmerston tier will stay at $5 a month. For anyone else, try it once, you won't regret it. And you can cancel any time. And if you like visual Multipolarity, you can always check us out on Substack, where we're expanding our output with a weekly Multipolarity Briefing every Tuesday. multipolaritypod.substack.com

APAC stocks are mostly positive as the majority of the region took its cue from gains on Wall Street, where tech led the advances, and NVIDIA posted stronger-than-expected earnings.US equity futures initially saw support following NVIDIA's earnings results, as the world's most valuable company beat on top and bottom lines, although gains were pared as NVIDIA ultimately returned to flat territory after hours.BoJ's Governor Ueda said there is no change from January to the BoJ's projected timing for hitting its price target, and inflation is expected to re-accelerate from the current slowdown.US VP Vance said they see evidence that Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon; US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran poses a grave threat and seeks nuclear capability.European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.9% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Consumer Confidence Final (Feb), US Jobless Claims, Japanese Tokyo CPI (Feb), Retail Sales (Jan). Speakers include ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Lombardelli & Fed's Bowman. Supply from Italy & US. Earnings from CoreWeave, Intuit, Vistra Energy, Autodesk, Dell, Baidu, Warner Bros Discovery, Munich Re, Schneider Electric, AXA, Engie & Saint-Gobain.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC mostly firmer as China returned, somewhat shrugging off the weak Wall St. finish on AI disruption concerns.DXY marginally firmer, EUR/USD directionless, while USD/JPY edged higher and above 155.00.USTs pulled back from Monday's best, Bunds remained near highs, while JGBs saw choppy action after the long weekend.Crude remained tentative amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, XAU faded while copper rallied as China returned.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly, House Prices (Dec), Consumer Confidence (Feb), Dallas/Richmond Fed (Feb), Atlanta Fed GDP, NBH Policy Announcement, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Bailey, Lombardelli, Greene, Taylor & Pill, Fed's Goolsbee, Collins, Bostic, Waller, Cook & Barkin, Supply from UK, Italy & US, Earnings from Home Depot & Keurig Dr Pepper.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses slip as AI concerns hit European Banks; US equity futures rebound slightly.JPY dragged on reports PM Takaichi raised reservations about rate hikes to BoJ Governor Ueda; DXY slightly firmer.Gilts notch a fresh contract high into the TSC, USTs rangebound heading into heavy speaker docket.WTI and Brent mildly gains; Spot gold retreats from Monday's best while Copper gains as mainland China returns. Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly, House Prices (Dec), Consumer Confidence (Feb), Dallas/Richmond Fed (Feb), Atlanta Fed GDP, NBH Policy Announcement, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Bailey, Greene, Taylor & Pill, Fed's Goolsbee, Collins, Bostic, Waller, Cook & Barkin, Supply from the US, Earnings from Home Depot & Keurig Dr Pepper.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

President Trump raised the blanket tariff rate to 15% from 10% over the weekend, following SCOTUS ruling against IEEPA tariffs on Friday; EU is set to freeze trade deal approval over US President Trump's tariff risk, Bloomberg reports.European equities mixed; Defence names hit as Hungary blocks further funding.DXY pressured on renewed uncertainty after Trump increases global tariffs to 15%.Fixed income relatively contained and awaiting further tariff updates.WTI and Brent rangebound ahead of US-Iran talks this week; Spot XAU regains USD 5k/oz handle.US President Trump reportedly considers a targeted strike on Iran, followed by a larger attack and is open to deposing the Supreme Leader by force if Iran is stubborn, according to the NYT.Looking ahead, highlights include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Dec/Jan). Speakers include BoE's Taylor, Fed's Waller & ECB's Lagarde. Earnings from Hims & Hers.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

An avalanche in California has left up to 10 skiers missing and six stranded. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is reportedly planning to leave her job early to allow French President Emmanuel Macron to help find a successor. U.S. envoys juggle near-simultaneous crisis talks on Iran and Ukraine in Geneva. Plus, actor Shia LaBeouf is arrested at Mardi Gras in New Orleans. Find our recommended read ⁠here⁠. Listen to On Assignment here. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast ⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠. Sign up for the Reuters Econ World newsletter ⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠. Listen to the Reuters Econ World podcast ⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠. Visit the ⁠Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement⁠ for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit ⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠ to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter joins our chief regional economists to discuss the outlook for interest rates in the U.S., Japan and Europe.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And today we're kicking off our quarterly economic roundtable for the year. We're going to try to think about everything that matters in economics around the world. And today we're going to focus a little bit more on central banking. And when we get to tomorrow, we'll focus on the nuts and bolts of the real side of the economy. I'm joined by our chief regional economists. Michael Gapen: Hi, Seth. I'm Mike Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley. Chetan Ahya: I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia economist. Jens Eisenschmidt: And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe economist. Seth Carpenter: It's Thursday, January 22nd at 10 am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4 pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 9 pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: So, Mike Gapen, let me start with you as we head into 2026, what are we thinking about? Are we going into a more stable expansion? Is this just a different phase with the same amount of volatility? What do you think is going to be happening in the U.S. as a baseline outlook? And then if we're going to be wrong, which direction would we be wrong? Michael Gapen: Yeah, Seth, we took the view that we would have more policy certainty. Recent weeks have maybe suggested we're incorrect on that front. But I still believe that when it comes to deregulation, immigration policy and fiscal policy, we have much more clarity there than we did a year ago. So, I think it's another year of modest growth, above trend growth. We're forecasting something around 2.4 percent for 2026. That's about where we finished 2025. I think what's key for markets and the outlook overall will be whether inflation comes down. Firms are still passing through tariffs to the consumer. We think that'll happen at least through the end of the first quarter. It's our view that after that, inflation pressures will start to diminish. If that's the case, then we think the Fed can execute one or two more rate cuts. But we have those coming [in] the second half of the year. So, it looks like growth is strong enough. The labor market has stabilized enough for the Fed to wait and see, to look around, see the effects of their prior rate cuts, and then push policy closer to neutral if inflation comes down. Seth Carpenter: And if we go back to last year to 2025, I will give you the credit first. Morgan Stanley did not shift its forecast for recession in the U.S. the way some of our main competitors did. On the other hand, and this is where I maybe tweak you just a little bit. We underestimated how much growth there would be in the United States. CapEx spending from AI firms was strong. Consumer spending, especially from the top half of the income distribution in the U.S. was strong. Growth overall for the year was over 2 percent, close to 2.5 percent. So, if that's what we just came off of, why isn't it the case that we'd see even stronger growth? Maybe even a re-acceleration of growth in 2026? Michael Gapen: Well, some of that, say, improvement vis-à-vis our forecast, the outperformance. Some of that I think comes mechanically from trade and inventory variability. So, . I'm not sure that that says a lot about an improving trend rate of growth. Where there was other outperformance was, as you noted, from the consumer. Now our models, and I don't mean to get too technical here, but our model suggests that consumption is overshooting its fundamentals. Which I think makes it harder for the economy to accelerate further. And then AI; it's harder for AI spending to say get incrementally stronger than where it is. So, we're getting a little extra boost from fiscal. We've got that coming through. And I just think what it is, is more of the same rather than further acceleration from here. Seth Carpenter: Do you think there's a chance that the Fed in fact does not cut rates like you have in your forecast? Michael Gapen: Yes, I do think... Where we could be wrong is we've made assumptions around the One Big Beautiful Bill and what it will contribute to the economy. But as you know, there's a lot of variability around those estimates. If the bill is more catalytic to animal spirits and business spending than we've assumed, you could get, say, a demand driven animal spirits upside to the economy, which may mean inflation doesn't decelerate all that much. But I do think that that's, say, the main upside risk that we're considering. Markets have been gradually taking out probabilities of Fed cuts as growth has come in stronger. So far, the inflation data has been positive in terms of signaling about disinflation, but I would say the jury's still out on how much that continues. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, When I think about Japan, we know that it's been the developed market central bank that's been going in the opposite direction. They've been hiking when other central banks have been cutting. We got some news recently that probably put some risk into our baseline outlook that we published in our year ahead view about both growth and inflation in Japan. And with it what the Bank of Japan is going to do in terms of its normalization. Can you just walk us through a little bit about our outlook for Japan? Because right now I think that the yen, Japanese rates, they're all part of the ongoing market narrative around the world. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, look, I mean, on a big picture basis, we are constructive on the Japan macro-outlook. We think normal GDP growth remains strong. We are expecting to see the transition for the consumers from them seeing, you know, supply side inflation. Keeping their real wage growth low to a dynamic where we transition to real wage growth accelerating. That supports real consumption growth, and we move away from that supply side driven inflation to demand side driven inflation. So broadly we are constructive, but I think in the backdrop, what we are seeing on currency depreciation is making things a bit more challenging for the BOJ. While we are expecting that demand side pressure to build up and drive inflation, in the trailing data, it is still pretty much currency depreciation and supply side factors like food inflation driving inflation. And so, BOJ has been hesitant. So, while we had the expectation that BOJ will hike in January of 2027, we do see the risk that they may have to take up rate hike earlier to manage the currency not getting out of hand and adding on to the inflation pressures. Seth Carpenter Would I be right in saying that up until now, the yen has swung pretty widely in both directions. But the weakening of the yen until now hasn't been really the key driver of the Bank of Japan's policy reaction. It's been growth picking up, inflation picking up, wanting to get out of negative interest rates first, wanting to get away from the zero lower bounds. Second, the weaker yen in some sense could have actually been seen as a positive up until now because Japan did go through 25 years of essentially stagnant nominal growth. Is this actually that much of a fundamental change in the Bank of Japan's thinking – needing to react to the weakness of the yen? Chetan Ahya: Broadly what you're saying is right, Seth, but there is also a threshold of where the currency can be. And beyond a point, it begins to hurt the households in form of imported inflation pressures. And remember that inflation has been somewhat high, even if it is driven by currency depreciation and supply side factors for some time. And so, BOJ has to be watchful of potential lift in inflation expectations for the households. And at the same time, they are also watching the underlying inflation impact of this currency depreciation – because what we have seen is that over period workers have been demanding for higher wages. And that is also influenced by what happens to headline inflation, which is driven by currency depreciation. So, I would say that, yes, it's been true up until now. But, when currency reaches these very high levels of range, you are going to see BOJ having to act. Seth Carpenter: Jens, let's shift then to Europe. The ECB had been on a cutting cycle. They came to the end of that. President Lagarde said that she thought the disinflationary process had ended. In your year ahead forecast and a bunch of your writing recently, you've said maybe not so fast. There could still be some more disinflationary, at least risk, in the pipeline for Europe. Can you talk a little bit about what's going on in terms of European inflation and what it could mean for the European Central Bank? Because clearly that's going to be first order important for markets.Jens Eisenschmidt: I think that is right. I think we have a crucial inflation print ahead of us that comes out on the 4th of February. So, early February we get some signal, whether our anticipated fall of headline inflation here below the ECB's target is actually materializing. We think the chances for this are pretty good. There's a mix why this is happening. One is energy. Energy disinflation and base effects. But the other thing is services inflation resets always at the beginning of the year. January and February are the crucial month here. We had significant services upward pressure on prices the last years. And so just from base effects, we think we will see less of that. Another picture or another element of that picture is that wage disinflation is proceeding nicely. We have notably a significant weakness in the export-oriented manufacturing sector in Germany, which is a key sector of setting wages for the country. The country is around 30 percent of the euro area GDP. And here we had seen significant wage gains over the last year. So, the disinflationary trend coming from lower wage gains from this country, that will be very important. And an important signal to watch. Again, that's something we don't know. I think soon we have to watch simply monthly prints here. But a significant print for the first quarter comes out in May, and all of that together makes us believe that the ECB will be in a position to see enough data or have seen enough data that confirms the thesis of inflation staying below target for some time to come. So that they can cut in June and September to a terminal rate of 1.5 percent. Seth Carpenter: That is, I would say, out of consensus relative where the market is. When you talk to investors, whether they're in Europe or around the world, what's the big pushback that you get from them when you are explaining your view on how the ECB is going to act? Jens Eisenschmidt: There are two essential pushbacks. So, one is on substance. So, 'No, actually wages will not come down, and the economy will actually start overheating soon because of the big fiscal stimulus.' That, in a nutshell is the pushback on substance. I would say here, as you would say before, not so fast. Because the fiscal stimulus is only in one country. It's 30 percent. But only 30 percent of the euro area.Plus, there is another pushback, which is on the reaction function of the ECB. Here we tend to agree. So far, we have heard from policy makers that they feel rather comfortable with the 2 percent rate level that they're at. But we think that discussion will change. The moment you are below target in an actual inflation print; the burden of proof is the opposite. Now you have to prove: Is the economy really on a track that inflation will get back up to target without further monetary stimulus? We believe that will be the key debate. And again, happy to, sort of, concede that there is for now not a lot of signaling out of the ECB that further rate cuts are coming. But we believe the first inflation print of the year will change that debate significantly. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so that makes a lot of sense. However, looking at the clock, we are probably out of time for today. So, for now, Michael, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And to the listener, thanks for listening. And be sure to tune in tomorrow for part two of our conversation. And I have to say, if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Original Release Date: November 17, 2025In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: Today, we'll focus on [the] all-important macroeconomic backdrop. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.