Podcasts about Lagarde

Bea Triguero, John Muller, Carlos Rodríguez Braun e Ignacio Rodríguez Burgos repasan la actualidad económica del día.

OpenAI scommette sugli agenti con OpenClaw; Wall Street chiusa, Amazon e Microsoft in territorio orso; Maxi compensi per i banchieri americani; Capodanno lunare test per i consumi in Cina; La mossa di Lagarde in difesa dell'euro. Puntata a cura di Elisa Piazza - Class CNBC Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

En nuestra portada de hoy, nombramos las claves internacionales más importantes del día. Entrevista geopolítica con Emiliano García Coso, profesor de Derecho internacional y Relaciones Internacionales de Comillas ICADE. Aprendemos a invertir con el profesor Carlos Lasvignes, de CML Bolsa. Después, repasamos los protagonistas del día en Wall Street. Por último, miramos al minuto de oro en mercados con David Fernández socio director de CML Bolsa.

In deze editie van Nieuws van de Week bespreken Rogier van Bemmel, Ad Verbrugge en Jelle van Baardewijk de geopolitieke en maatschappelijke verschuivingen die Europa en Nederland raken. Van de versnelde federalisering van de EU tot de schokkende onthullingen rond Jeffrey Epstein, en van de demonisering van Forum voor Democratie tot de escalerende conflicten in Oekraïne en het Midden-Oosten. Europa lijkt in een stroomversnelling te zitten: een Europees leger en een geïntegreerde kapitaalmarkt worden gepresenteerd als noodzakelijk antwoord op de veranderende wereldorde, maar critici zoals Bart de Wever waarschuwen dat we hiermee "de afgrond in gaan". Ondertussen zorgt de vrijgave van de Epstein-documenten voor schokgolven, waarbij netwerken blootgelegd worden die verder reiken dan gedacht. In eigen land wordt het politieke debat steeds grimmiger, met spotprenten en aanvallen op FVD die volgens Verbrugge een dieperliggend legitimiteitsprobleem van de gevestigde orde maskeren. Tot slot analyseren de heren de rol van Trump in de mogelijke beëindiging van de oorlog in Oekraïne en het risico op verdere escalatie tussen Israël en Iran.Steun DNWMaak het geluid van de Nieuwe Wereld mogelijk. Zonder uw steun geen DNW! Word lid of doneer:

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Se evaporan en Bolsas americanas las subidas que veíamos al inicio de sesión. Las pérdidas en Europa han ido a más. Tras dato de empleo, los rendimientos se fueron al alza. Ahora algo corrigen. El mercado haciendo varias lecturas del informe de empleo. Enero bueno pero expuesto el dato a fuertes revisiones como en el cómputo de 2025. Sale otro día penalizado el software. Analizamos el mercado con Joan Esteve, de Gesinter. Contamos que Lagarde presenta las reformas necesarias para impulsar la resistencia de la UE. Hablamos, además, de movimientos de los fondos activistas en Warner y en la gestora de la Bolsa de Londres.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

China is reportedly urging banks to curb USTs exposure amid market risk, Bloomberg reports, citing sources; guidance does not apply to China's state holdings of US Treasuries.Japanese PM Takaichi's LDP party won a landslide victory at the snap election on Sunday, securing a super majority; JPY bid, JGBs lower and Nikkei 225 soars.European bourses are broadly firmer, whilst US equity futures move lower; Nikkei 225 soars post-LDP victory.USD hit on China-USTs report, JPY strengthens post-LDP, whilst GBP lags on regional political woes.JGBs set a bearish tone for global fixed income, with USTs also dragged on the China-USTs report; Gilts digest the McSweeney resignation and reports that PM Starmer faces further pressure to resign.WTI and Brent are flat. Precious metals continue to rebound as the PBoC buys gold for a 15th consecutive month.Looking ahead, highlights include US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jan), BoC Market Participants Survey. Speakers include ECB's Lane & Lagarde, Fed's Waller & Bostic, Earnings from Apollo, Becton Dickinson, Loews, On Semiconductor & Cleveland-Cliffs.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week higher after last Friday's rally on Wall St, where the DJIA topped the 50k level for the first time.The Nikkei 225 also hit a fresh record high after PM Takaichi's landslide election victory and supermajority.China is reportedly urging banks to curb US Treasuries exposure amid market risk, Bloomberg reports, citing sources; guidance does not apply to China's state holdings of US Treasuries.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4% after the cash market closed higher by 1.2% on Friday.Highlights include Swiss Consumer Confidence (Jan), Norwegian GDP (Q4), Mexican Inflation (Jan), US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jan), BoC Market Participants Survey. Speakers include ECB's Lane & Lagarde, Fed's Waller & Bostic, Earnings from Apollo, Becton Dickinson, Loews, On Semiconductor & Cleveland-Cliffs.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

9/2 Asia, Nikkei record dopo la vittoria storica di Takaichi. Il suo partito vince una super maggioranza: 316 seggi alla camera bassa. Si rafforza lo yen (+0,5%), salgono i rendimenti dei bond. Kospi +4%, a Hong Kong il produttore di chip Montage Tech sale del 50% all'Ipo. Salgono oro, argento e Bitcoin che recupera 71.000$. Bessent, oro: “speculazione è colpa dei tarderà cinesi, classica impennata speculativa destinata a sgonfiarsi” Wall Street, futures in verde. Venerdì colpo di coda di Tech e finanziari. Le Big Tech hanno perso 1000mld capitalizzazione in una settimana. Goldman Sachs: turbolenza proseguirà. Settimana nel solco di trimestrali (Robinhood, Mc Donald's, Coca Cola est) e dati macro. Mercoledì non Farm payrolls di gennaio e inflazione a gennaio fondamentali per futuro percorso tassi. Europa, count down per Consiglio Europeo e vertice competitività Italia-Germania. Cipollone (BCE) valuteremo impatto euro forte a Marzo. Uk: Starmer in bilico dopo dimissioni Chief of staff. Attesa per la ripartenza di Stellantis dopo il -25% di venerdì, analisti divisi . Lagarde alle 17.00 parla dal Parlamento Europeo. Unicredit: 4Q e 2025 da record. Per il 2026 vede ricavi oltre 25 miliardi (+6%). Distribuzione fino a 50 mld euro prossimi 5 anni.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Le réveil pique ce matin sur la Tech. Hier, on a eu la preuve par l'image : faire de la croissance, c'est bien, mais la payer au prix fort, le marché déteste ça. Entre Alphabet et Amazon qui annoncent des dépenses d'investissement (CapEx) lunaires pour 2026 (on parle de près de 400 Mds$ cumulés !), les investisseurs ont tranché : ils vendent la news.

6/2 Amazon scende a doppia cifra nel pre-market: conti sotto le attese, Capex record a 200mld di dollari (+50%). Futures in rosso. Sell-off indiscriminato su Tech: dal software ai chip. Nel mirino le società di software: ETF -18% in otto giorni, peggior performance da Covid. Semiconduttori -8%, peggior settimana da novembre. S&P500 vira in rosso da inizio anno, Nasdaq peggiori tre giorni da aprile 2025. Si comprano dollaro e Treasury. Bitcoin torna sopra 64mila ma cancella tutti guadagni post elettorali: -50% dai massimi di ottobre. Dagli ETF liquidati 5mld$ in tre mesi. Oro tiene, argento in lieve recupero dopo la debacle di ieri. Addio alla fusione Glencore - Rio Tinto. Bce, Lagarde: euro forte potrebbe spingere inflazione sotto nostre aspettative ma per ora nella norma. Tassi fermi, politica monetaria e inflazione in “a good place”. BOE tassi fermi, verso tagli a marzo e giugno. Europa prudente. BPM utile sopra le attese, confermato dividendo 1 euro. ENEL ricavi preliminari +2%, nel 2025 previsti utili a 6,9mld. Asia Nikkei in verde, attesa per elezioni e Takaichi trade. Kospi lima le perdite a -2%. RBI tassi repo fermi al 5,25% Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Die EZB hält die Zinsen bei 2 % – doch während Lagarde von einem "good place" spricht, brodelt es geopolitisch gewaltig: Handelskriege, Anleihenkrisen und eine historische Aktienblase bedrohen das System. Gold und Silber haben nach extremen Kursausschlägen bewiesen, warum sie in Krisenzeiten unverzichtbar sind – und warum die nächsten Monate noch dramatischer werden. Erfahre, wie du dein Vermögen jetzt schützen kannst, bevor es zu spät ist.

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today's decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 5 February 2026. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 5 February 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2026/html/mopo_statement_explained_february.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 5 February 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2026/html/ecb.is260205~50858cb986.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 5 February 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260205~001d26959b.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 5 February 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds260205~0c74e825a7.en.pdf European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

APAC stocks were mostly lower following the continued tech selling stateside and flip-flopping regarding US-Iran talks, while commodities were pressured overnight with silver prices dropping by a double-digit percentage.Earnings saw Alphabet shares fall 2.0%, ARM Holdings slip 8.6%, and Qualcomm slump 10.3% after market.US President Trump said not much doubt that interest rates will be lowered and thinks that Warsh wants to cut rates anyway.US BLS rescheduled the January employment report for Feb. 11th, while it rescheduled December job openings and labour turnover report for February 5th, and rescheduled January CPI to February 13th.Looking ahead, highlights include German Factory Orders (Dec), EZ Retail Sales (Dec), US Challenger (Jan), Weekly/Continuing Jobless Claims, Revelio PLS, ECB Announcement, BoE Announcement & MPR, Banxico Announcement, CNB Announcement. Speakers include BoE's Bailey, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Bostic, BoC's Macklem & RBA's Bullock. Supply from Spain & France.Earnings from Amazon, Strategy, Roblox, Reddit, Bloom Energy, ConocoPhillips, Bristol Myers Squibb, Barrick Mining, Cigna, Linde, Shell, Unilever & UniCredit.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are broadly on the backfoot; US equity futures mixed, but the NQ outperforms, as chip names benefit from Alphabet boosting AI spending.DXY is mildly firmer, with G10s lower to varying degrees; Aussie hampered by pressure in metals, GBP lags into BoE.Fixed income benchmarks are mixed; USTs incrementally firmer, whilst Gilts underperform on political woes.Crude benchmarks slip with US-Iran meeting confirmed, Spot gold moves lower, silver -10.5%.Looking ahead, highlights include US Challenger (Jan), Weekly/Continuing Jobless Claims, Revelio PLS, ECB Announcement, BoE Announcement & MPR, Banxico Announcement, CNB Announcement. Speakers include BoE's Bailey, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Bostic, BoC's Macklem & RBA's Bullock.Earnings from Amazon, Strategy, Roblox, Reddit, Bloom Energy, ConocoPhillips, Bristol Myers Squibb, Barrick Mining, Cigna.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses opened stronger, but sentiment has dipped off best levels; US equity futures are modestly firmer, with mild outperformance is seen in the NQ.DXY is flat, Antipodeans benefit from a rebound in metals prices with outperformance in the Aussie after the RBA hiked rates by 25bps (as expected), whilst the SoMP noted that underlying inflation is higher than expected.Fixed income on the backfoot with supply in focus in a shutdown-thinned US docket.Crude prices initially lower but now flat; India to stop importing Russian oil as part of the trade deal with the US. Metals rebound with spot gold returning above USD 4900/oz.Looking ahead, highlights include US RCM/TIPP (Feb), New Zealand Unemployment (Q4), Australian S&P PMIs Final (Jan), Speakers including Fed's Bowman, Barkin & ECB's Lagarde.December JOLTS has been postponed, on account of the US government shutdown. Earnings from AMD, Supermicro, Amgen, Amcor, PayPal, PepsiCo, Pfizer, Merck.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher with several bourses firmly recovering from the prior day's sell-off, as the region took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street.US President Trump announced that India will stop buying Russian oil, while the US will be lowering tariffs on India to 18% from 25%.RBA hiked the Cash Rate by 25bps as expected in a unanimous decision, marking the first hike in over two years; RBA's SoMP noted that underlying inflation is higher than expected and GDP growth has continued to pick up.US BLS will not release the January jobs report on Friday due to the partial US Government shutdown, while December JOLTS (due 3rd Feb) has also been postponed.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.0% on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include Turkish Inflation (Jan), French Prelim. CPI (Jan), RCM/TIPP (Feb), New Zealand Unemployment (Q4), Australian S&P PMIs Final (Jan), Speakers including Fed's Bowman, Barkin & ECB's Lagarde, Supply from UK & Germany, Earnings from AMD, Supermicro, Amgen, Amcor, PayPal, PepsiCo, Pfizer, Merck & Publicis.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Niko Jilch is a renowned finance journalist, podcaster, and fierce advocate for Bitcoin and sound money principles.› https://x.com/NikoJilch› https://www.youtube.com/@WasBitcoinbringtPARTNERS

27/1 Futures misti a Wall Street, Asia record. Kospi +2,5% nonostante la minaccia di Trump di dazi al 25% per ritardi della legislatura nel ratifica l'accordo commerciale. Yen stabile. Jeffries: $/Yen verso quota 150. Continua il malessere del dollaro ai minimi da 4 mesi. Oro irrefrenabile: per GS a 5700$ entro metà anno, per Soc. Gen. a 6.000$. Cosa dicono le principali case d'affari? L'Argento inverte rotta.  Vigilia di Fed: “uneventful” per GS che vede due tagli nel 2026 a partire da giugno. Per Wolfe Research l'annuncio del prossimo presidente potrebbe essere domani. La possibile scelta di Rick Rieder e le conseguenze per i mercati. Trimestrali Big Tech: domani tocca a Meta, Microsoft e Tesla. Giovedì Apple, poi Alphabet: cosa aspettarsi?  Europa-India siglano nuovo accordo commerciale di libero scambio. Oggi Starmer in visita in Cina. Futures europei in verde, stasera i conti di LVMH. A dicembre le vendite EV superano i motori tradizionali. Alle 18 parla Lagarde. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

2026-01-24 | UPDATES #112 | Davos: The Heckle-Fest—and the Cost of America's New Posture. Trump's Gangster Shakedown in Europe. Davos is usually a place where elites congratulate each other for “dialogue,” then fly home in private jets to continue not doing not enough, or to vigorously pursue inaction. This week, though, Davos did something rare: it heckled. And it heckled America — specifically the Trump administration's new habit of treating allies like adversaries, of turning geopolitics into ritual humiliation, and turning diplomacy into a reality show elimination round. ----------SUPPORT THE CHANNEL:https://www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.patreon.com/siliconcurtain----------SOURCES: Reuters — Lutnick heckled at Davos dinner hosted by BlackRock's Fink (Jan 21, 2026). Financial Times — Lutnick dinner incident / Lagarde walkout reporting (summarized in Reuters/People) (Jan 20–21, 2026). People — Al Gore reaction; DOC pushback; “energy policy is insane” quote (Jan 21, 2026).Reuters — Bessent: “Denmark itself… is irrelevant”; Macron swipe; “deep breath” (Jan 21, 2026).Reuters — Europe leaders in Davos; Macron “respect to bullies”; De Wever red lines; Busch “stroking the cat”; Zelensky X post reference (Jan 20, 2026). Reuters — Trump: “big retaliation… we have all the cards”; “total access”; “no cost” (Jan 22, 2026).World Economic Forum — Official Davos transcript excerpts (“piece of ice,” “won't use force,” “daddy”) (Jan 21, 2026). Reuters — “Trump whisperer” Rutte; lavish praise strategy; analysts on psychology and compromise (Jan 22, 2026). RFE/RL — Witkoff “end now… optimistic”; “down to one issue”; Zelensky “Groundhog Day” framing (Jan 22, 2026). ----------SILICON CURTAIN LIVE EVENTS - FUNDRAISER CAMPAIGN Events in 2025 - Advocacy for a Ukrainian victory with Silicon Curtainhttps://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extrasOur events of the first half of the year in Lviv, Kyiv and Odesa were a huge success. Now we need to maintain this momentum, and change the tide towards a Ukrainian victory. The Silicon Curtain Roadshow is an ambitious campaign to run a minimum of 12 events in 2025, and potentially many more. Any support you can provide for the fundraising campaign would be gratefully appreciated. https://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extras----------

En el Foro Económico Mundial de Davos, el Primer Ministro de Canadá, Mark Carney, se posiciona como contrapeso a Donald Trump, criticando la desintegración del orden mundial y la dependencia económica. Carney destaca los riesgos de la integración global extrema, mientras que Trump recuerda la dependencia de Canadá de EE.UU. Christine Lagarde y Kristalina Georgieva ofrecen perspectivas sobre la deuda global y el impacto de la inteligencia artificial en la economía. Lagarde enfatiza la importancia de distinguir entre señales y ruido, mientras que Georgieva advierte sobre el tsunami laboral que podría afectar a la clase media. La creciente desigualdad en la distribución de la riqueza se presenta como un desafío global crucial.

ANSA - di Domenico Conti, inviato a Davos. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Leader politici partiti, si torna sull'economia; L'outlook economico 2026 con Lagarde e Georgieva; Ondata di investimenti in IA; Musk: metteremo insieme potere AI con potere robotica; L'energia per l'AI? Musk guarda allo spazio Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter joins our chief regional economists to discuss the outlook for interest rates in the U.S., Japan and Europe.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And today we're kicking off our quarterly economic roundtable for the year. We're going to try to think about everything that matters in economics around the world. And today we're going to focus a little bit more on central banking. And when we get to tomorrow, we'll focus on the nuts and bolts of the real side of the economy. I'm joined by our chief regional economists. Michael Gapen: Hi, Seth. I'm Mike Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley. Chetan Ahya: I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia economist. Jens Eisenschmidt: And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe economist. Seth Carpenter: It's Thursday, January 22nd at 10 am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4 pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 9 pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: So, Mike Gapen, let me start with you as we head into 2026, what are we thinking about? Are we going into a more stable expansion? Is this just a different phase with the same amount of volatility? What do you think is going to be happening in the U.S. as a baseline outlook? And then if we're going to be wrong, which direction would we be wrong? Michael Gapen: Yeah, Seth, we took the view that we would have more policy certainty. Recent weeks have maybe suggested we're incorrect on that front. But I still believe that when it comes to deregulation, immigration policy and fiscal policy, we have much more clarity there than we did a year ago. So, I think it's another year of modest growth, above trend growth. We're forecasting something around 2.4 percent for 2026. That's about where we finished 2025. I think what's key for markets and the outlook overall will be whether inflation comes down. Firms are still passing through tariffs to the consumer. We think that'll happen at least through the end of the first quarter. It's our view that after that, inflation pressures will start to diminish. If that's the case, then we think the Fed can execute one or two more rate cuts. But we have those coming [in] the second half of the year. So, it looks like growth is strong enough. The labor market has stabilized enough for the Fed to wait and see, to look around, see the effects of their prior rate cuts, and then push policy closer to neutral if inflation comes down. Seth Carpenter: And if we go back to last year to 2025, I will give you the credit first. Morgan Stanley did not shift its forecast for recession in the U.S. the way some of our main competitors did. On the other hand, and this is where I maybe tweak you just a little bit. We underestimated how much growth there would be in the United States. CapEx spending from AI firms was strong. Consumer spending, especially from the top half of the income distribution in the U.S. was strong. Growth overall for the year was over 2 percent, close to 2.5 percent. So, if that's what we just came off of, why isn't it the case that we'd see even stronger growth? Maybe even a re-acceleration of growth in 2026? Michael Gapen: Well, some of that, say, improvement vis-à-vis our forecast, the outperformance. Some of that I think comes mechanically from trade and inventory variability. So, . I'm not sure that that says a lot about an improving trend rate of growth. Where there was other outperformance was, as you noted, from the consumer. Now our models, and I don't mean to get too technical here, but our model suggests that consumption is overshooting its fundamentals. Which I think makes it harder for the economy to accelerate further. And then AI; it's harder for AI spending to say get incrementally stronger than where it is. So, we're getting a little extra boost from fiscal. We've got that coming through. And I just think what it is, is more of the same rather than further acceleration from here. Seth Carpenter: Do you think there's a chance that the Fed in fact does not cut rates like you have in your forecast? Michael Gapen: Yes, I do think... Where we could be wrong is we've made assumptions around the One Big Beautiful Bill and what it will contribute to the economy. But as you know, there's a lot of variability around those estimates. If the bill is more catalytic to animal spirits and business spending than we've assumed, you could get, say, a demand driven animal spirits upside to the economy, which may mean inflation doesn't decelerate all that much. But I do think that that's, say, the main upside risk that we're considering. Markets have been gradually taking out probabilities of Fed cuts as growth has come in stronger. So far, the inflation data has been positive in terms of signaling about disinflation, but I would say the jury's still out on how much that continues. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, When I think about Japan, we know that it's been the developed market central bank that's been going in the opposite direction. They've been hiking when other central banks have been cutting. We got some news recently that probably put some risk into our baseline outlook that we published in our year ahead view about both growth and inflation in Japan. And with it what the Bank of Japan is going to do in terms of its normalization. Can you just walk us through a little bit about our outlook for Japan? Because right now I think that the yen, Japanese rates, they're all part of the ongoing market narrative around the world. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, look, I mean, on a big picture basis, we are constructive on the Japan macro-outlook. We think normal GDP growth remains strong. We are expecting to see the transition for the consumers from them seeing, you know, supply side inflation. Keeping their real wage growth low to a dynamic where we transition to real wage growth accelerating. That supports real consumption growth, and we move away from that supply side driven inflation to demand side driven inflation. So broadly we are constructive, but I think in the backdrop, what we are seeing on currency depreciation is making things a bit more challenging for the BOJ. While we are expecting that demand side pressure to build up and drive inflation, in the trailing data, it is still pretty much currency depreciation and supply side factors like food inflation driving inflation. And so, BOJ has been hesitant. So, while we had the expectation that BOJ will hike in January of 2027, we do see the risk that they may have to take up rate hike earlier to manage the currency not getting out of hand and adding on to the inflation pressures. Seth Carpenter Would I be right in saying that up until now, the yen has swung pretty widely in both directions. But the weakening of the yen until now hasn't been really the key driver of the Bank of Japan's policy reaction. It's been growth picking up, inflation picking up, wanting to get out of negative interest rates first, wanting to get away from the zero lower bounds. Second, the weaker yen in some sense could have actually been seen as a positive up until now because Japan did go through 25 years of essentially stagnant nominal growth. Is this actually that much of a fundamental change in the Bank of Japan's thinking – needing to react to the weakness of the yen? Chetan Ahya: Broadly what you're saying is right, Seth, but there is also a threshold of where the currency can be. And beyond a point, it begins to hurt the households in form of imported inflation pressures. And remember that inflation has been somewhat high, even if it is driven by currency depreciation and supply side factors for some time. And so, BOJ has to be watchful of potential lift in inflation expectations for the households. And at the same time, they are also watching the underlying inflation impact of this currency depreciation – because what we have seen is that over period workers have been demanding for higher wages. And that is also influenced by what happens to headline inflation, which is driven by currency depreciation. So, I would say that, yes, it's been true up until now. But, when currency reaches these very high levels of range, you are going to see BOJ having to act. Seth Carpenter: Jens, let's shift then to Europe. The ECB had been on a cutting cycle. They came to the end of that. President Lagarde said that she thought the disinflationary process had ended. In your year ahead forecast and a bunch of your writing recently, you've said maybe not so fast. There could still be some more disinflationary, at least risk, in the pipeline for Europe. Can you talk a little bit about what's going on in terms of European inflation and what it could mean for the European Central Bank? Because clearly that's going to be first order important for markets.Jens Eisenschmidt: I think that is right. I think we have a crucial inflation print ahead of us that comes out on the 4th of February. So, early February we get some signal, whether our anticipated fall of headline inflation here below the ECB's target is actually materializing. We think the chances for this are pretty good. There's a mix why this is happening. One is energy. Energy disinflation and base effects. But the other thing is services inflation resets always at the beginning of the year. January and February are the crucial month here. We had significant services upward pressure on prices the last years. And so just from base effects, we think we will see less of that. Another picture or another element of that picture is that wage disinflation is proceeding nicely. We have notably a significant weakness in the export-oriented manufacturing sector in Germany, which is a key sector of setting wages for the country. The country is around 30 percent of the euro area GDP. And here we had seen significant wage gains over the last year. So, the disinflationary trend coming from lower wage gains from this country, that will be very important. And an important signal to watch. Again, that's something we don't know. I think soon we have to watch simply monthly prints here. But a significant print for the first quarter comes out in May, and all of that together makes us believe that the ECB will be in a position to see enough data or have seen enough data that confirms the thesis of inflation staying below target for some time to come. So that they can cut in June and September to a terminal rate of 1.5 percent. Seth Carpenter: That is, I would say, out of consensus relative where the market is. When you talk to investors, whether they're in Europe or around the world, what's the big pushback that you get from them when you are explaining your view on how the ECB is going to act? Jens Eisenschmidt: There are two essential pushbacks. So, one is on substance. So, 'No, actually wages will not come down, and the economy will actually start overheating soon because of the big fiscal stimulus.' That, in a nutshell is the pushback on substance. I would say here, as you would say before, not so fast. Because the fiscal stimulus is only in one country. It's 30 percent. But only 30 percent of the euro area.Plus, there is another pushback, which is on the reaction function of the ECB. Here we tend to agree. So far, we have heard from policy makers that they feel rather comfortable with the 2 percent rate level that they're at. But we think that discussion will change. The moment you are below target in an actual inflation print; the burden of proof is the opposite. Now you have to prove: Is the economy really on a track that inflation will get back up to target without further monetary stimulus? We believe that will be the key debate. And again, happy to, sort of, concede that there is for now not a lot of signaling out of the ECB that further rate cuts are coming. But we believe the first inflation print of the year will change that debate significantly. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so that makes a lot of sense. However, looking at the clock, we are probably out of time for today. So, for now, Michael, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And to the listener, thanks for listening. And be sure to tune in tomorrow for part two of our conversation. And I have to say, if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Présentée au CES de Las Vegas, la nouvelle balance connectée de Withings veut transformer la simple pesée en véritable bilan de santé préventif. . Grâce à des capteurs avancés et à l'analyse de plus de 60 biomarqueurs, la balance ambitionne de détecter très tôt les premiers signaux faibles des maladies chroniques.Interview : Caroline Lagarde, responsable produit chez WithingsPunchlinesLa balance capte plus de 60 biomarqueurs.Nous détectons les risques avant les symptômes.La santé cardiovasculaire est au cœur du produit.Toutes les mesures sont encore réversibles.L'objectif est le dépistage, pas le diagnostic.A quoi sert Body Scan 2 ?On s'est rendu compte que notre mode de vie s'est beaucoup dégradé. On mange sur le pouce, on dort moins, on est sous pression. Résultat : de nombreuses maladies chroniques se développent silencieusement pendant des années. Body Scan 2 a été conçue pour détecter les premiers signes avant-coureurs avant qu'il ne soit trop tard.Qu'apporte concrètement cette nouvelle balance par rapport aux modèles précédents ?À chaque pesée, on réalise un scan complet de la santé cardiovasculaire et métabolique. En plus du poids et de la composition corporelle segmentale, on ajoute des métriques comme le risque d'hypertension, l'âge vasculaire et désormais l'âge du cœur. Cela repose sur différents capteurs au niveau des pieds, des doigts et des pouces, capables de capter plus de 60 biomarqueurs.Ces données sont-elles vraiment fiables et utiles pour les médecins ?Oui, elles sont fiables. Toutes nos métriques sont développées et validées avec des médecins, notamment en milieu hospitalier. Notre objectif est le screening : informer les personnes de leur état de santé pour qu'elles puissent agir et, si nécessaire, consulter leur médecin, qui réalisera ensuite les examens complémentaires.-----------♥️ Soutien : https://mondenumerique.info/don

Au Cœur de l'Histoire est un podcast Europe 1.- Ecriture et présentation : Olivier de Lagarde - Production : Clara Leger- Réalisation : Christophe Daviaud et Nicolas Beaudin- Musique originale : Julien Tharaud  - Visuel : Luowen Wang- Diffusion : Clara Ménard Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Inizia l'ottava stagione del BIP SHOW!Partiamo dal messaggio di fine anno di Christine Lagarde e dall'assurda teoria dell'inflazione al 2%.Inoltre: Wallet of Satoshi abbandona l'Europa nella sua versione custodial, ennesimo data breach per Ledger, tutti i numeri del Lightning Network nel 2025, e boom di istallazioni per BitChat in Uganda.It's showtime!

Original Release Date: November 17, 2025In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: Today, we'll focus on [the] all-important macroeconomic backdrop. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, le vol de l'argenterie de l'Élysée, l'interview du nouveau Bâtonnier de Paris et le Mercosur.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, retour sur les évènements marquants de 2025, la colère des agriculteursHébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today's decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 18 December 2025. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 18 December 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2025/html/mopo_statement_explained_december.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 18 December 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is251218~3a10402adb.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 18 December 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.mp251218~58b0e415a6.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 18 December 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds251218~f264376788.en.pdf Macroeconomic projections, 18 December 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/index.en.html European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

APAC stocks were mostly lower following on from the tech-led selling stateside and ahead of US inflation data and a slew of upcoming central bank decisions.US President Trump's primetime address to the nation made no mention of a US blockade against Venezuela or Russian sanctions.US President Trump said he will soon announce the next Fed chair and that the new Fed chair will believe in lowering interest rates by a lot.US equity futures traded rangebound with little reaction seen following President Trump's primetime address and as participants awaited US CPI data.European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures U/C after the cash market closed with losses of 0.6% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI (Nov), Jobless Claims (w/e 13 Dec), Philly Fed (Dec), Japanese CPI (Nov), NZ Trade Balance (Nov), ECB Announcement, BoE Announcement, Norges Bank Announcement, Riksbank Announcement, CNB Announcement, Banxico Announcement. Speakers include Norges Bank's Bache, Riksbank's Thedeen, ECB's Lagarde & BoE's Bailey, Supply from US, Earnings from Carnival, Nike & FedEx.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he will soon announce the next Fed chair and that the new Fed chair will believe in lowering interest rates by a lot.European bourses are mostly firmer; US equity futures also gain, with mild outperformance in the NQ.DXY is slightly firmer as traders await US CPI; GBP underperforms a touch ahead of the BoE, EUR awaits the ECB.Fixed income grinds higher; Bunds saw some modest downticks after Germany's DFA announced their 2026 issuance plan, which came in slightly above analyst expectations.Crude complex was initially firmer but now hovering just above the unchanged mark, as Trump avoided mentioning Venezuela/Russia in his primetime address.Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI (Nov), Jobless Claims (w/e 13 Dec), Philly Fed (Dec), Japanese CPI (Nov), NZ Trade Balance (Nov), ECB Announcement, BoE Announcement, CNB Announcement, Banxico Announcement. Speakers include ECB's Lagarde & BoE's Bailey, Supply from US, Earnings from Carnival, Nike & FedEx.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, l'interview de François Fillon au Figaro et les 50 ans des albums Panini.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, retour sur l'interview de François Fillon à charge contre le chef de l'Etat. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, le troisième volet de la saga "Avatar" et les patrons qui ne se sentent pas soutenus par la droite. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur responds to some of the feedback from clients on Morgan Stanley's 2026 global outlooks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Today, I consider the pushback we've received on our 2026 outlooks – distilling the themes that drew the most debate and our responses to the debates. It's Tuesday, Dec 16th at 3:30pm in New York. It's been a few weeks [since] we published our 2026 outlooks for the global economy and markets. We've had lots of wide-ranging conversations, much dialogue and debate with our clients across the globe on the key themes that we laid out in our outlook. Feedback has ranged from strong alignment to pointed disagreement, with many nuanced views in between. We welcome this dialogue, especially the pushback, as it forces us to re-examine our assumptions and refine our thinking. Our constructive stance on AI and data center-related CapEx, along with the pivotal role we see for the credit market channels, drew notable scrutiny. Our 2026 CapEx projections was anchored by a strong conviction – that demand for compute will far outstrip the supply over the next several years. We remain confident that credit markets across unsecured, structured, and securitized instruments in both public and private domains will be central to the financing of the next wave of AI-driven investments. The crucial point here is that we think this spending will be relatively insensitive to the macro conditions, i.e., the level of interest rates and economic growth. Regarding the level of AI investment, we received a bit of pushback on our economics forecast: Why don't we forecast even more growth from AI CapEx? From our perspective, that is going to be a multi-year process, so the growth implications also extend over time. Our U.S. credit strategists' forecast for IG bond supply – $2.25 trillion in gross issuance; that's up 25 percent year-over-year, or $1 trillion in net issuance; that's 60 percent year-over-year – garnered significant attention. There was some pushback to the volume of the issuance we project. As CapEx growth outpaces revenue and pressures free cash flow, credit becomes a key financing bridge. Importantly, AI is not the sole driver of the surge that we forecast. A pick-up in M&A activity and the resulting increase in acquisition-driven IG supply also will play a key role, in our view. We also received pushback on our expectation for modest widening in credit spreads, roughly 15 basis points in investment grade, which we still think will remain near the low end of the historical ranges despite this massive surge in supply. Some clients argued for more widening, but we note that the bulk of the AI-related issuance will come from high-quality – you know AAA-AA rated issuers – which are currently underrepresented in credit markets relative to their equity market weight. Additionally, continued policy easing – two more rate cuts – modest economic re-acceleration, and persistent demand from yield-focused buyers should help to anchor the spreads. Our macro strategists' framing of 2026 as a transition year for global rates – from synchronized tightening to asynchronous normalization as central banks approach equilibrium – was broadly well received, as was their call for government bond yields to remain broadly range-bound. However, their view that markets will price in a dovish tilt to Fed policy sparked considerable debate. While there was broad agreement on the outlook for yield curve steepening, the nature of that steepening – bull steepening or bear steepening – remained a point of contention. Outside the U.S., the biggest pushback was to the call on the ECB cutting rates two more times in 2026. Our economists disagreed with President Lagarde – that the disinflationary process has ended. Even with moderate continued euro area growth on German fiscal expansion, but consolidation elsewhere, we still see an output gap that will eventually lead inflation to undershoot the ECB's 2 percent target. We also engaged in lively dialogue and debate on China. The key debate here comes down to a micro versus macro story. Put differently, the market is not the economy and the economy is not the market. Sentiment on investments in China has turned around this year, and our strategists are on board with that view. However, from an economics point of view, we see deflation continuing and fiscal policy from Beijing as a bit too modest to spark near-term reflation. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, les réservations pour les vacances de Noël en forte augmentation et la publicité de la télévision publique. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, lbaisse de la natalité liée à des raisons financières et pratiques, la tentation de l'exil des chefs d'entreprise et la fermeture de Brandt. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, lbaisse de la natalité liée à des raisons financières et pratiques, la tentation de l'exil des chefs d'entreprise et la fermeture de Brandt. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

La decisione della Fed è attesa questa sera: i mercati sperano in un taglio dei tassi, ma Powell ha avvertito che non è affatto garantito, vista la scarsità di dati dopo lo shutdown. Le aspettative di inflazione di lungo periodo restano tra 2,2 e 2,3 per cento, mentre quelle a un anno dell'Università del Michigan sono ancora al 4,6 per cento, complice l'effetto temporaneo dei dazi. Trump, che spinge per un taglio, in comizio ha rivendicato i successi dell'amministrazione, attaccato Biden e ribadito che "la mia parola preferita è dazi". In Europa, Lagarde ha escluso tagli e aperto alla possibilità di rialzi, sostenendo che l'economia dell'Eurozona va meglio del previsto e rilanciando la proposta di eurobond per la difesa. Ne abbiamo parlato con Franco Bruni, presidente dell'Ispi e professore emerito alla Bocconi.Istat: in primo trimestre piu 9,5 per cento compravendite immobiliari abitativeNel primo trimestre sono state registrate 228.623 convenzioni notarili di compravendita, in crescita dell'1,5 per cento sul trimestre precedente e dell'8,7 per cento su base annua. Il comparto abitativo, che rappresenta oltre il 93 per cento del totale, aumenta del 9,5 per cento rispetto al 2024, trainato da Nord-ovest e Nord-est, mentre il Centro è in calo. Il comparto economico resta stabile. Il Rapporto Federproprietà-Censis evidenzia tuttavia che in Italia ci sono 8,5 milioni di case inutilizzate: molti proprietari non affittano per timore della morosità. Nel frattempo, gli affitti brevi superano le 691.000 strutture. Ne abbiamo parlato con Mario Breglia, presidente di Scenari Immobiliari.Anfia: transizione da correggere, così l'Europa si fermaBruxelles sta definendo un nuovo pacchetto per l'automotive che potrebbe rivedere lo stop ai motori endotermici dal 2035 e sancire la neutralità tecnologica, includendo anche biocarburanti ed e-fuel. La presentazione potrebbe slittare perché restano nodi politici e industriali. Anfia chiede una correzione urgente della transizione ecologica, giudicata troppo rapida e già dannosa: la filiera automobilistica europea conta 13 milioni di addetti e, nonostante investimenti elevati nell'elettrificazione, si stimano 100.000 posti persi nel 2024 e altri 400.000 a rischio entro il 2028. L'associazione sollecita obiettivi di CO2 più realistici, flessibilità sul 2035 con una quota fino al 25 per cento di veicoli non elettrici, riconoscimento delle tecnologie alternative e maggior tutela della produzione europea. Ne abbiamo parlato con Roberto Vavassori, presidente di Anfia.

APAC stocks were mostly subdued amid cautiousness ahead of today's Fed policy decision and dot plots, while the region also digested the latest Chinese inflation data.China is buying US soybeans again, but is reportedly falling short of the goal set by the Trump trade agreement, according to CNBC.US Trade Representative Greer said China's rare earths continue to flow and expects to sign more trade deals over the coming weeks.US President Trump is to kick off the final round of Fed Chair interviews this week, while senior administration officials said Kevin Hassett remains in pole position to succeed Powell as Fed Chair, according to the FT.European equity futures indicate a marginally lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market finished with losses of 0.1% on Tuesday.Looking ahead, highlights include Norwegian CPI (Nov), US Employment Costs (Q3), BoC/FOMC/BCB Rate Announcement. Speakers include BoE's Bailey, ECB's Lagarde, BoC's Macklem & Fed's Powell. Supply from the UK. Earnings from Oracle, Adobe & Synopsys.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: So today and tomorrow, a two-part conversation on Morgan Stanley's year ahead outlook. Today, we'll focus on the all-important macroeconomic backdrop. And tomorrow, we'll be back with our views on investing across asset classes and markets. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.