Podcasts about Lagarde

In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: So today and tomorrow, a two-part conversation on Morgan Stanley's year ahead outlook. Today, we'll focus on the all-important macroeconomic backdrop. And tomorrow, we'll be back with our views on investing across asset classes and markets. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, l'interview de Roland Lescure, le début du sommet Choose France, le vent de panique sur les patrimoines français et un gouvernement dépassé par les débats sur le budget. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, les ingénieurs qui ont perdu confiance en la reconquête industrielle de la France, le retour de Boualem Sansal sur fond de polémique entre macroniste et retailliste, les attaques d'ours terrorisent la population au Japon. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, les ingénieurs qui ont perdu confiance en la reconquête industrielle de la France, le retour de Boualem Sansal sur fond de polémique entre macroniste et retailliste, les attaques d'ours terrorisent la population au Japon. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Dura condanna per lo sviluppatore di Samourai Wallet. Massimo della pena. Cosa significa per il mondo dello sviluppo open source?Inoltre: un nuovo documentario su Bitcoin accende le speranze, Mi Primer Bitcoin lascia definitivamente El Salvador, Square abilita i pagamenti in bitcoin, e una panel sul Lightning Network esemplifica tutta la complessità della scalabilità.It's showtime!

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, le récit du 13 novembre 2015 au Stade de France, Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, le récit du 13 novembre 2015 au Stade de France, Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, les commémorations des 10 ans des attentats du 13 novembre et le Jour J pour la suspension de la réforme des retraites. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, les commémorations des 10 ans des attentats du 13 novembre et le Jour J pour la suspension de la réforme des retraites. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

APAC stocks were mostly subdued with the region failing to sustain the positive global risk momentum that had been spurred by US-China trade optimism and US government reopening hopes, while there were few fresh catalysts overnight to fuel the recent rally.US Senate voted 60 vs. 40 to pass legislation to fund the federal government and end the shutdown, while the bill now goes to the House.US House Speaker Johnson is seeking a Wednesday vote on the stopgap bill, and won't commit to an ACA subsidy vote.China is reportedly devising a plan to keep the US military from getting its rare earth magnets and is considering a ‘validated end-user' system to fast-track certain export licenses, according to WSJ.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4% after the cash market finished with gains of 1.8% on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Unemployment/Wages (Sep), EZ & German ZEW (Nov), US NFIB (Oct), Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP, Riksbank Minutes, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Greene & Dhingra, RBA's Jones, Supply from Netherlands, Earnings from Porsche SE, RWE & Alcon. Holidays: US Veterans' Day; Canadian Remembrance DayRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, les commémorations du 11 novembre et des 10 ans attentats du 13 novembre, la suspension de la réforme des retraites, la libération de Nicolas Sarkozy et des entreprises qui rêvent. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, un sondage sur la compréhension des attentats du 13 novembre 2015, un autre sondage sur l'envie des Français de voir Nicolas Sarkozy revenir en politique et la rock star de l'automobile chinoise qui est une femme. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, l'indépendance de l'île de Bougainville et l'affrontement des deux empires Pinault et Arnault sur la pelouse du stade Jean Bouin. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, l'indépendance de l'île de Bougainville et l'affrontement des deux empires Pinault et Arnault sur la pelouse du stade Jean Bouin. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, une étude qu'aurait la Russie aurait d'attaquer l'Europe, la guerre économique contre Shein, la guerre des gauches, le drame d'Oléron, l'interview de Gérald Darmanin et les gagnants de l'Euromillions. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Deze week hebben we het natuurlijk uitgebreid over de daling van bitcoin. De munt kwam deze week voor het eerst in 6 maanden onder de $100.000. Hoe nu verder? Daarnaast staan we stil bij de shutdown in de VS, hebben we een nieuw Polymarket gokje, zien we de eerste Bitcoin Treasury Company bitcoin verkopen en luisteren we naar Lagarde's update rondom de digitale euro.Probeer Bitcoin Alpha 2 weken gratis!Satoshi Radio wordt mede mogelijk gemaakt door: Firefish, Amdax, Watson Law en onze hoofdsponsor Bitvavo.Timestamps(00:00:00) Welkom en Podcast Introductie(00:12:00) Vragen van luisteraars(00:22:00) Bookmark van Bert: Trump insider with 100% win rate just got fully liquidated(00:37:00) Bookmark van Peter: “We're making the US the bitcoin superpower [..]”(00:44:46) Bookmark van Bert: Scott Bessent: “Bitcoin never shuts down” (01:09:00) Bookmark van Bart: Coinmerce heeft Mica(01:15:00) Bookmark van Bart: US Government Seeks Maximum Sentence For Keonne Rodriguez And William Hill(01:17:30) Bookmark van Bart: Sequans Redeems 50% of Convertible Debt Through Strategic Asset Reallocation.(01:22:00) Bookmark van Peter: Werk aan digitale euro versnelt(01:31:00) Marktupdate(00:00:00) EindeBookmarksBert:Trump insider with 100% win rate just got fully liquidatedDe trades van de Trump insider op HyperdashAlpha-artikel over Survivorship BiasScott Bessent: “Bitcoin never shuts down”Mail van Satoshi naar cryptography mailing listPolymarket over government shutdownBart:Coinmerce heeft Mica Revolut heeft MicaSequans Redeems 50% of Convertible Debt Through Strategic Asset Reallocation.Ja, maar dit zat er aan te komen, natuurlijk, logisch!US Government Seeks Maximum Sentence For Keonne Rodriguez And William HillTether maakt $10 miljard(!) winst tot nu toe in 2025Peter:“We're making the US the bitcoin superpower [..]”Galaxy neemt afscheid van de 4-year cycleWintermute zegt 'm ook vaarwelUdi Wertheimer past z'n voorspelling ook aanDe beren komen even uit hun winterslaapWerk aan digitale euro versnelt

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, une étude qu'aurait la Russie aurait d'attaquer l'Europe, la guerre économique contre Shein, la guerre des gauches, le drame d'Oléron, l'interview de Gérald Darmanin et les gagnants de l'Euromillions. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, la victoire du socialiste Zohran Mamdani à New-York, Rachida Dati toujours en tête des intentions de vote pour la mairie de Paris et de possibles primaires à droite. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, la victoire du socialiste Zohran Mamdani à New-York, Rachida Dati toujours en tête des intentions de vote pour la mairie de Paris et de possibles primaires à droite. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the mixed lead from Wall St, where the majority of sectors declined but tech outperformed.RBA kept Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%, as expected; judged some of the increase in underlying inflation in Q3 was due to temporary factors.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.8% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3% on Monday.DXY is flat, antipodeans lag with AUD softer post-RBA. JPY outperforms, underpinned by a haven bid and more verbal intervention.In a rare pre-budget press conference today, UK Chancellor Reeves will indicate she is prepared to break Labour's manifesto promise not to raise income tax, according to The Telegraph.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Trade, US RCM/TIPP, New Zealand Jobs, RBNZ FSR, BoJ Minutes (Sep), French Assembly PLF vote process begins, ECB's Lagarde, Nagel and Balz, BoE's Breeden & Fed's Bowman, Supply from UK & Germany.Earnings from Phillips, Evonik, Fresenius MC, Ferrari, BP; AMD, Supermicro, Marathon, Pfizer & Uber.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, les vainqueurs du Prix Goncourt et du prix Renaudot seont dévoilés aujourd'hui, les mémoires de Roi d'Espagne Juan Carlos et les discussions qui se poursuivent sur les budgets. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, les vainqueurs du Prix Goncourt et du prix Renaudot seont dévoilés aujourd'hui, les mémoires de Roi d'Espagne Juan Carlos et les discussions qui se poursuivent sur les budgets. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, le coût des maladies mentales en France, les intentions de vote pour la présidentielle, Éric Dupond-Moretti avocat d'Emmanuel Macron et l'initiative gastronomique de Yann Arthus-Bertrand. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, le coût des maladies mentales en France, les intentions de vote pour la présidentielle, Éric Dupond-Moretti avocat d'Emmanuel Macron et l'initiative gastronomique de Yann Arthus-Bertrand. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Christophe Bordet remplace Olivier de Lagarde ce vendredi 31 octobre 2025. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Parto dall'incontro Trump Xi Jinping a Busan: l'accordo raggiunto su (soprattutto) due cose, terre rare e dazi. Descrivo poi quello che è il clima di non fiducia tra le due potenze. Vado poi sulle parole di Lagarde e concludo con i titoli tecnologici, Apple e Amazon, che nell'ultima parte della settimana hanno galvanizzato Wall Street. Vi aspetto. 

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today's decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 30 October 2025. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 30 October 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2025/html/mopo_statement_explained_october.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 30 October 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is251030~4f74dde15e.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 30 October 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.mp251030~cf0540b5c0.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 30 October 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds251030~25d99d5b1c.en.pdf European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

Nel terzo trimestre 2025 il Pil italiano, corretto per gli effetti di calendario, è rimasto invariato rispetto al trimestre precedente e in crescita dello 0,4% su base annua, secondo le stime preliminari dell'Istat. Dopo il -0,1% del secondo trimestre e il +0,3% del primo, la crescita zero non modifica la stima acquisita per l'anno, pari allo 0,5%, in linea con le previsioni del governo. L'aumento del valore aggiunto nell'agricoltura è stato compensato dal calo dell'industria e dalla stabilità dei servizi. Dal lato della domanda, contributo negativo della componente interna e positivo di quella estera netta. Affrontiamo il tema con Carlo Altomonte, Associate Dean e Direttore PNRR Lab, SDA Bocconi, e membro CD Fondazione M&MLa Bce lascia i tassi fermi al 2%, come da atteseLa Bce, riunita a Firenze, ha mantenuto invariati i tassi: 2% sui depositi, 2,15% sui rifinanziamenti principali e 2,40% sui prestiti marginali. L'inflazione resta vicina al target del 2% e le prospettive restano stabili, sebbene il contesto globale resti incerto per le tensioni geopolitiche e commerciali. Lagarde ha sottolineato che l'economia continua a mostrare resilienza grazie al mercato del lavoro e alla solidità dei bilanci privati. La crescita dello 0,2% nell'area euro nel terzo trimestre è risultata leggermente sopra le attese. La presidente ha inoltre annunciato l'avvio della nuova fase dell'euro digitale, che garantirà privacy, sicurezza e competitività nei pagamenti. Il commento è affidato a Donato Masciandaro, docente politiche monetarie Università BocconiBorse Ue restano in rosso dopo nulla di fatto Bce. A Wall Street giù Meta e MicrosoftI listini europei chiudono in calo dopo la decisione della Bce di lasciare i tassi invariati e in una settimana intensa per le trimestrali e le banche centrali globali. A Wall Street pesano le vendite su Meta (-11,8%) e Microsoft, penalizzate dalle previsioni di maggiori investimenti in IA, mentre Alphabet sale grazie ai ricavi pubblicitari. In Europa, la crescita del Pil del terzo trimestre è risultata leggermente superiore alle attese (+0,2% nell'eurozona, +0,3% nell'Ue), trainata da Francia e Spagna. A Piazza Affari bene Campari e Tenaris, male Prysmian e Stellantis (-10,1%), colpita dai dubbi sul futuro outlook e dalle incertezze legate alla crisi dei semiconduttori. Affrontiamo il tema con Martina Soligo, RadiocorVertice Usa-Cina, Trump: «Taglio ai dazi e accordo sulle terre rare»Donald Trump e Xi Jinping si sono incontrati a Busan raggiungendo un accordo per dimezzare i dazi statunitensi sui prodotti cinesi e rilanciare le esportazioni di soia americana, terre rare e controlli sul fentanyl. Trump ha inoltre annunciato la ripresa dei test sulle armi nucleari, sostenendo di voler mantenere il primato militare Usa. Pechino sospenderà per un anno i limiti all'export di alcune terre rare, sebbene restino in vigore restrizioni introdotte in aprile. L'intesa avrà ripercussioni dirette sull'Unione Europea, come sottolineato dal commissario Ue al Commercio Maros Sefcovic. Ne parliamo con Marco Masciaga, Il Sole 24 Ore, New Delhi

La posta è sempre alta: come scalare Bitcoin. Arkade delude parzialmente le aspettative e la ricerca continua.Inoltre: Christine Lagarde al mercato, il fork BIP-444 e tutte le sue assurdità, e il PlanP Forum di Lugano si conferma l'evento finance di riferimento.It's showtime!

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, les Français ne veulent plus faire d'enfant et le business du chagrin. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Gonzalo Cañete, de ATFX, repasa la macro de la sesión, siguiendo de cerca las palabras de Lagarde, el recorte de tipos de la FED, el PIB francés y el oro.

Lagarde al mercato & i salari bassi - Fiano cacciato dai proPal: confrontiamoci negli atenei!

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, le monde du travail se transforme face à l'IA, l'offenssive médiatique de Jordan Bardella et le contre-budget de Sarah Knafo et la femme la plus riche du monde. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, les mauvais résultats de Porsche, la petite dernière de chez Dacia, la victoire de Javier Milei. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, les risques d'une dissolution après le 15 novembre, la suite des discussions budgétaires et les jeunes moins soutenus financièrement que les personnes âgées Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, la directive européenne pour la transparence des rémunérations, la lettre rectificative qui prévoit la suspension de la réforme des retraites et le détail de l'utime bouton. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

US President Trump said he will discuss a lot of things with Chinese President Xi in two weeks; however, he added that the meeting might not happenUS futures are marginally firmer, while European futures point to a slightly lower cash openDXY softened overnight, EUR and GBP lifted modestly off Tuesday's trough, USD/JPY contained and back below 152.00Fixed benchmarks rangebound into supplyCrude underpinned by a Russian strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, XAU continued to falter to the USD 4k/oz mark but has since bouncedLooking ahead, highlights include UK CPI (Sep), CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), BoJ SLOOS, Speakers including ECB's de Guindos, Lagarde & Fed's Barr, Supply from Germany & US, Earnings from SAP, Barclays, Akzo Nobel, Tesla, IBM, Kinder Morgan, Alcoa, Lam Research, GE Vernova, Hilton, AT&T & Thermo Fisher.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are broadly lower, but FTSE 100 outperforms after UK inflation; US equity futures are modestly weaker.USD is flat & GBP hit after region's softer-than-expected inflation report, which has boosted bets for a cut in December.USTs are flat/slightly firmer ahead of supply, Gilts gap higher after CPI, Bunds marginally pressured after yet another poor auction.Initial morning bounce back in gold has faded with XAU now lower on the session; crude complex is on a firmer footing.Looking ahead, CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), Speakers including ECB's de Guindos, Lagarde & Fed's Barr, Supply from the US, Earnings from SAP, Tesla, IBM, Kinder Morgan, Alcoa, Lam Research, GE Vernova, Hilton, AT&T & Thermo Fisher.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks took their cues from the rally on Wall Street as the focus remained on US-China trade with some optimism following US President Trump's comments in which he stated that China has been respectful of them.US President Trump continued to tout a November 1st deadline for additional tariffs, he also reaffirmed that he will be meeting with Chinese President Xi and thinks they will reach a 'fantastic deal'.Japanese LDP leader Takaichi won the lower house vote (237 votes out of 465-seats) to become Japan's first female PM, as expected.European equity futures indicate a modestly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.3% on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK PSNB (Sep), Canadian CPI (Sep), NBH Policy Announcement, CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), Speakers including ECB's Nagel, Lane & Lagarde, Fed's Waller, BoE's Bailey & Breeden, Supply from UK & Germany,Earnings from Netflix, Intuitive, Texas Instruments, Capital One Financial, Coca-Cola, GE Aerospace, Elevance Health, Lockheed Martin, Philip Morris, RTX, General Motors, 3M, Nasdaq & Danaher.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are mixed and have traded choppy throughout the morning; US equity futures are modestly lower, ahead of a slew of earnings.DXY is underpinned by the downbeat risk tone and easing credit concerns; JPY underperforms as Takaichi becomes Japanese PM.Global fixed paper are bid amid the softer risk tone and reports around AA rating criteria.Metals sell off as “debasement trade” loses momentum; Crude is essentially flat in choppy trade.Looking ahead, Canadian CPI (Sep), NBH Policy Announcement, CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), Speakers including ECB's Nagel & Lagarde, Fed's Waller, BoE's Bailey & BreedenEarnings from Netflix, Intuitive, Texas Instruments, Capital One Financial, Coca-Cola, GE Aerospace, Elevance Health, Lockheed Martin, Philip Morris, RTX, General Motors, 3M, Nasdaq & Danaher.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said they are in a trade war with China, and if the US don't have tariffs, they don't have national security, while he stated that tariffs are a very important tool for defence.The US Senate is set to leave for the week on Thursday and is nowhere near ending the shutdown, according to a journalist.BoJ's Tamura said the BoJ should push rates closer towards levels deemed neutral, but does not need to raise rates sharply or tighten monetary policy now, given both upside and downside risks.US President Trump said Israeli forces could resume fighting in Gaza as soon as he gives the word if Hamas doesn't uphold the ceasefire deal, according to CNN.APAC stocks took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street, where most major indices ultimately gained; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP (Aug), EZ Trade Balance (Aug), Philly Fed (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDP, Comments from Fedʼs Waller, Barkin, Barr, Miran, Bowman & Kashkari, ECBʼs Lane & Lagarde, BoCʼs Macklem, BoEʼs Greene & Mann, Supply from Spain & France, Earnings from TSMC, Bank of New York Mellon, KeyCorp, Charles Schwab, United Airlines, ABB & Bankinter. Suspended Releases: US Weekly Claims, PPI (Sep), Retail Sales (Sep). Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said they are in a trade war with China, and if the US don't have tariffs, they don't have national security, while he stated that tariffs are a very important tool for defence.European bourses are mostly higher, SMI bid post-Nestle results and NQ outperforms after strong Q3 TSMC earnings.USD mixed vs. peers, GBP leads whilst AUD was pressured by a weak jobs report.USTs are firmer, fleeting upside in OATs after PM Lecornu survives the 1st no confidence vote; now awaiting the 2nd vote.Crude benchmarks trade rangebound despite rising geopolitical tensions, XAU forms another new ATH.Looking ahead, highlights include Philly Fed (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDP, Comments from Fedʼs Waller, Barkin, Barr, Miran, Bowman & Kashkari, ECBʼs Lane & Lagarde, BoCʼs Macklem, BoEʼs Greene & Mann.Earnings from Bank of New York Mellon, KeyCorp, Charles Schwab, United Airlines, ABB & Bankinter.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

ECB President Christine Lagarde refuses to call an end to the central bank's interest rate cutting cycle despite hailing the resilience of euro zone economies. Lagarde tells our colleagues Stateside she is anticipating all risks. Dutch chip maker ALSM posts net bookings ahead of forecasts for Q3 and is expecting stable sales next year despite a major slowdown in Chinese demand. Luxury giant LVMH posts a 1 per cent increase in third quarter sales thanks to a rebound in the Chinese market. We speak to the CEO of Swiss watch maker Breitling, Georges Kern, who says an easing of political tensions would immediately boost luxury goods consumption.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

APAC stocks were mostly higher as expectations for incoming Fed rate cuts helped the region shrug off the mixed lead from Wall St.Fed Chair Powell said downside risks to the US jobs market have risen and rising risks to the job market justified a September interest rate cut.US President Trump announced he is considering terminating business with China regarding cooking oil.European equity futures indicate a firm cash market open with EuroStoxx 50 future up 1.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.3% on Tuesday.DXY is softer and now basically flat on the week, AUD is attempting to atone for recent losses, EUR/USD sits on a 1.16 handle.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Industrial Production (Aug), NY Fed Manufacturing (Oct), Cleveland Fed CPI (Sep), US Military Pay Date, Fed Beige Book, (Suspended Releases: US CPI), BoE's Ramsden & Breeden, ECB's de Guindos, Lane & Lagarde, Fed's Miran, Bostic, Waller & Schmid, RBA's Bullock & Kent, Supply from UK & Germany.Earnings from ASML, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Dollar Tree & Progressive.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are in the green; LVMH +14% & ASML +3.6% both gain post-earnings; US equity futures also rise.USD losses extend into a second session, EUR remains underpinned by French optimism.USTs incrementally firmer, OATs gain as traders digest the latest pension reform suspension.XAU breaks USD 4200/oz, crude benchmarks muted amid heightened trade tensions.Looking ahead, highlights include NY Fed Manufacturing (Oct), Cleveland Fed CPI (Sep), US Military Pay Date, Fed Beige Book, (Suspended Releases: US CPI), BoE's Breeden, ECB's Lane & Lagarde, Fed's Miran, Bostic, Waller & Schmid, RBA's Bullock & Kent.Earnings from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Dollar Tree & Progressive.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks trade mixed with demand hampered following the negative handover from the US; European futures flat.RBNZ cut rates by 50bps and kept the door open to further rate cuts.US President Trump said a lot of things will be eliminated due to the shutdown, and he will tell us about the eliminated jobs in four or five days.USD remains on the front foot, NZD lags post-RBNZ, JPY digests soft real cash earnings data.Spot gold continued its advances, in which spot prices climbed above the USD 4,000/oz level.Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Output (Aug), Swedish CPIF Flash (Sep), NBP Policy Announcements, FOMC Minutes (Sep), BoE's Pill, ECB's Elderson & Lagarde, Fed's Musalem, Barr, Goolsbee & Kashkari, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

EU sees new US trade demands hollowing out deal struck by US President Trump, according to Bloomberg citing sources.European bourses are broadly firmer but with ASML (-1.7%) weighing on the AEX; US equity futures are modestly higher.USD continues to rally, boosted by a weak JPY and NZD; the Kiwi is the clear underperformer after the RBNZ delivered a jumbo 50bps cut and left the door open for more rate reductions.Global paper moves higher, OATs outperform, awaiting French PM Lecornu later.XAU topped the USD 4,000/oz mark, crude is continuing to rebound as China is set to re-enter the market tomorrow.Looking ahead, NBP Policy Announcements, FOMC Minutes (Sep), Speakers including BoE's Pill, ECB's Elderson & Lagarde, Fed's Musalem, Barr, Goolsbee & Kashkari, NVIDIA CEO Huang, French PM Lecornu, Supply from US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed despite the tech-led advances on Wall St, with several holiday closures, Japanese stocks rallied again as the post-LDP election euphoria persisted.Democrat and Republican bills to end the US government shutdown failed to secure sufficient votes for passage in the Senate, as expected.European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Monday.DXY held onto yesterday's gains, which were triggered by JPY and EUR selling. USD/JPY remains above 150.French President Macron said he has asked outgoing PM Lecornu to hold final talks with political partners to stabilise the country.Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Orders (Aug), US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, NY Fed SCE, Atlanta Fed GDP, Canadian Trade Balance (Aug), Ivey PMI (Sep), (Suspended Releases: US International Trade, Consumer Credit), EIA STEO, Fed's Bostic, Bowman, Miran, Kashkari, ECB's Lagarde & Nagel, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Morgan Stanley's chief economists discuss how policymakers in China, Japan and the European Union are addressing slower growth, deflation or the return of inflationary pressures. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Well, a lot has changed since the second quarter and the last time we did one of these around the world economics roundtable. After an extended pause, the United States Federal Reserve started cutting rates again. Europe's recovery is showing, well, some mixed signals. And in Asia, there's once again increasing reliance on policy support to keep growth on track.Today for the first part of a two-part conversation, I'm going to engage with Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia economist, and Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe economist, to really get into a conversation about what's going on in the economy around the world.It's Tuesday, September 30th at 10am in New York.Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt.Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in HongSeth Carpenter: So, it's getting to be the end of the third quarter, and the narrative around the world is still quite murky from my perspective. The Fed has delivered on a rate cut. The ECB has decided that maybe disinflation is over. And in Asia, China's policymakers are trying to lean in and push policy to right the wrongs of deflation in that economy.I want to get into some of the real hard questions that investors around the world are asking in terms of what's going on in the economy, how it's working out, and what we should look for. So, Chetan, if I can actually start with you. One of the terms that we've heard a lot coming out of China is the anti-involution policy.Can you just lay out briefly for us, what do we mean when we say the anti-involution policy in China?Chetan Ahya: Well, the anti-evolution policy is a response to China's excess capacity and persistent deflation challenge. And in China's context, involution refers to the dynamic where producers compete excessively, resulting in aggressive price cuts and diminishing returns on capital employed. And look, at the heart of this deflation challenge is China's approach of maintaining high real GDP growth with more investment in manufacturing and infrastructure when aggregate demand slows. And in the past few years, policy makers push for investment in manufacturing and infrastructure to offset the sharp slow down in property sector.And as a result, a number of industry sectors now have large excess capacities, explaining this persistent deflationary environment. And after close to two and a half years of deflation, policy makers are recognizing that deflation is not good for the corporate sector, households and the government. And from the past experience, we know that when policymakers in China signal a clear intention, it will be followed up by an intensification of policy efforts to cut capacity in select sectors. However, we think moving economy out of deflation will be challenging. These supply reduction efforts may be helpful but will not be sufficient on their own. And this time for a sustainable solution to deflation problem, we think a pivot is needed – supporting consumption via systematic efforts to increase social welfare spending, particularly targeted towards migrant workers in urban China and rural poor. But we are not optimistic that this solution will be implemented in scale.Seth Carpenter: So that makes sense because in the past when we've been talking about the issue of deflation in China, it's essentially this mismatch between the amount of demand in the economy not being sufficient to match the supply. As you said, you and your team have been thinking that the best solution here would be to increase demand, and instead what the policymakers are doing is reducing supply.So, if you don't think this change in policy, this anti-evolution policy is sufficient to break this deflation cycle – what do you see as the most likely outcome for economic growth in China this year and next?Chetan Ahya: So, this year we expect GDP growth to be around 4.7 percent, which implies that in the back half of the year you'll see growth slowing down to around 4.5 percent because we already grew at 5.2 in the first half. And, going forward we think that, you know, you should be looking more at normal GDP growth set because as we just discussed deflation is a key challenge.So, while we have real GDP growth at 4.7 for 2025, normal GDP growth is going to be 4 percent. And next year, again, we think normal GDP growth will be in that range of 4 percent.Seth Carpenter: That whole spiral of deflation – it's sort of interesting, Japan as an economy has broken that sort of stagnation or disinflation spiral that it was in for 25 years. We've been writing for a long time about the reflation story going on in Japan. Let me ask you, our forecast has been that the reflationary dynamic is there. It's embedded, it's not going away anytime. But, on the other hand, we basically see the Bank of Japan as on hold, not just for the rest of this year, but for all of next year as well.Can you let us know a little bit about what's going on with Japan and why we don't think the Bank of Japan might raise interest rates anytime soon?Chetan Ahya: So, Seth, at the outset, we think BoJ needs still some more time to be sure that we are on that virtuous cycle of rising prices and wages. Yes, both prices and wages have gone up. But it is very clear from the data that a large part of this rise in prices can be attributed to currency depreciation and supply side factors, such as higher energy prices earlier, and food prices now. And similarly, currency depreciation has also played a role in lifting corporate profits, which then has allowed the corporate sector to increase wages.So, if you look at the drivers to rise in prices and wage growth as of now, we think that demand has not really played a big role. To just establish that point, if you look at Japan's GDP, it's just about 1 percent higher than pre-COVID on a real basis. And if you look at Japan's consumption, real consumption trend, it's still 1 percent below pre-COVID levels.So, we think BoJ still needs more time. And just to add one more point on this. BoJ is also conscious about what tariffs will do to Japan's exports, and economy; and therefore, they want to wait for some more time to see the evidence that demand also picks up before they take up a policy rate hike.Seth Carpenter: So, one economy in deflation and policy is probably not enough to prevent it. Another economy that's got reflation, but a very cautious central bank who wants to make sure it continues. Jens, let's pivot now to Europe because at the last policy meeting, President Lagarde of the ECB said pretty, pretty strongly that she thinks the disinflationary process in Europe has come to an end. And that the ECB is basically on hold at this point going forward.Do you agree with her assessment? Do you think she's got it right? You think she's got it wrong? How could she be wrong, if she's wrong? And what's your outlook for the ECB?Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, there a ton of questions here. I think I was also struck by the statement as you were. I think there is probably – that's at least my interpretation – a reference here to – Okay, we have come down a long way in terms of inflation in the Euro area. Rather being at 10 percent at some point in the past and now basically at target. And we think; I mean, we just got the data actually, for September in. It's more or less in line with what we had expected up again to 2.3. But that's really it. And then from here it's really down.Very good reasons to believe this will be the case. We have actually inflation below target next year, and the ECB agrees. So that's why I think she can't have made reference to what Liza had because the ECB itself is predicting that inflation from here will fall. So, I think it's really probably rather description of the way traveled. And then there may be some nuances here in the policy prescription forward.So, for now we think inflation will undershoot the target. And we think this undershoot has good chances to extend well into the medium term. So that's the famous 2027 forecast. The ECB in its last installment of the forecast in September doesn't disagree. Or it's actually, in theory at least, in agreement because it has a 1.9 here for 2027. So, it's also below target.But when asked about that at the press conference, the President said, yes, it's actually, very close to 2. So, it really cannot be really distinguished here. So, from that perspective, policy makers probably want to wait it out. In particular for the October meeting, which is not a forecast meeting, we don't expect any change.And then the focus of attention is really on the December meeting with the new forecast. What will 2028 show in their forecast for inflation? And will the 1.9 in [20]27 actually be rather 1.8? In which case I think the discussion on further cuts will heat up. We have a cut for December, and we have another one for March.Seth Carpenter: Of course, very often one of the things that drives inflation is overall economic growth and a key determinant of economic growth tends to be fiscal policy. And there we've got two big economies very much in the headlines right now. Germany, on the one hand, with plans to increase spending both on infrastructure and on defense spending. And then France, who's seen lots of instability, shall we say, with the government as they try to come up with a plan for fiscal consolidation.So, with those two economies in mind, can you walk us through what is the fiscal outlook for Germany, in particular? Is it going to be enough to stimulate overall growth in Europe? And then for France, are they going to be able to get the fiscal consolidation that they're looking for? How do you see those two economies evolving in terms of fiscal policy?Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, it's of course neither black or white, as you know. I think here we really look into the German case specifically, as the clear case where fiscal stimulus will happen. It may just not happen as quickly, and it's a very trade open economy. So, it's very much exposed to the current headwinds coming out of China for one. Or also U.S. tariffs. So, from that we conclude our net-net is actually, yes, there is textbook fiscal stimulus. So, basically domestic demand replacing less foreign demand.So that's fine, but just not enough. We see essentially better growth in Germany, but that's more cyclically driven. But it was; it just would not be enough for what you would normally think given the size of the fiscal stimulus, which is enormous. But it will also take some time, this fiscal stimulus to unfold.On the other side in France, as you rightly ask, how much consolidation are we going to get? I think the answer has to be very likely less than what the last – or the previous Prime Minister has had planned. So, all in all, that gets us into a situation of a country that lacks a clear economic policy structure, a clear governance structure; tries to – on a very fragile parliamentary majority – tries to consolidate the budget. Probably gets less consolidation going forward than what would be desirable. And, you know, here is sort of – not really...It's been muddling through a little bit. This is probably a good description of the approach here in France, and we actually have on the lack of a clear economic policy agenda and still some fiscal consolidation. We have actually lackluster growth in France for this year and next.Seth Carpenter: Okay, so what I'm hearing you saying is inflation seems likely to come down and probably undershoot their target causing President Lagarde and the ECB to reconsider how many cuts they're going to do. And then growth probably isn't going to be as stimulated by fiscal policy as I think lots of people in markets are hoping for.Chetan, Jens, thanks for joining us.And to the listeners, thank you for listening. Be sure to turn in tomorrow where I'm going to put Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist on the hot seat, talk about the U.S. and maybe one or two more economies around the world.And if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.