Podcasts about Lagarde

USD hit and US yield curve steeper as Trump referred to Hassett as the "potential" next Fed ChairAPAC stocks mixed, only partially sustaining the Wall St. handover, where the NQ outperformedEUR and GBP both edged higher, AUD shrugged off disappointing Q3 GDPCrude contained, Kremlin said talks with the US were constructive but are no closer to resolving the situationLooking ahead, highlights include EZ/UK/US Services/Composite PMI Final (Nov), Swiss CPI (Nov), US ISM Services PMI (Nov), ADP National Employment (Nov), Import Prices (Sep), Industrial Production (Sep), NBP Policy Announcement, Speakers including BoE's Mann, ECB's Lagarde & Lane, Supply from UK, Earnings from Salesforce, Snowflake, Dollar Tree, Macy's & Inditex.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are broadly firmer, alongside modest strength across US equity futures; Marvell (+10%) benefits following its upbeat outlook for data-centre growth.DXY is softer and towards the round 99.00 mark as Trump referred to Hassett as the "potential" next Fed Chair, GBP top G10 performer, whilst CHF was briefly pressured post-CPI.Fixed benchmarks firmer but off highs as crude climbs. US yields steeper on Trump's Fed commentary.Crude grinds higher as traders digest the lack of progress from the Putin-Witkoff meeting; XAU trades rangebound; Copper extends to new ATHs.Looking ahead, US Services/Composite PMI Final (Nov), US ISM Services PMI (Nov), ADP National Employment (Nov), Import Prices (Sep), Industrial Production (Sep), NBP Policy Announcement, Speakers including BoE's Mann, ECB's Lagarde, Earnings from Salesforce, Snowflake, Dollar Tree.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

3/12 Bitcoin recupera 92.000$, la SEC semplificherà le regole per il mondo cripto da gennaio 2026. Futures a Wall Street in verde, oggi stime ADP sul mercato del lavoro. Big Tech in riscossa, Anthropic verso l'Ipo, la società di prediction market Kalshi raddoppia il suo valore in un mese.In Asia, l'economia cinese perde momentum, listini in rosso. Il Nikkei sale, decennale stabile, Softbank vola. In Europa futures in verde, focus su Stellantis (Antonio Filosa sarà oggi alla Casa Bianca) Saipem e le banche con l'accordo Abi-Mef per escludere aumento Irap. Oggi la presidente Lagarde parla dal Parlamento Europeo. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, le dysfonctionnement du système politique inquiète les Français et la gauche qui va devoir choisir entre son électorat homosexuel et son électorat musulman. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, le dysfonctionnement du système politique inquiète les Français et la gauche qui va devoir choisir entre son électorat homosexuel et son électorat musulman. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, un papier sur le sommeil et nos rêves dans Les Échos, la lettre de Gabriekl Attal a 60.000 chefs d'entreprise et l'intelligence artificielle accélère les risques de pénurie d'électricité. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

1/12 Dicembre parte in retromarcia, futures a Wall street in rosso: Bitcoin a 86mila dollari, in Giappone il rendimento dei titoli a due anni sopra l'1% per la prima volta nella storia. Nikkei -2%, Ueda (BOJ): “valutiamo pro e contro taglio”. Frena l'attività economica in Cina. Fed: taglio dicembre scontato a 87%, Trump: ho scelto il prossimo presidente. Venerdì il deflatore del Pil. Mercati europei, leader delle classifiche da inizio anno. Domani inflazione novembre, mercoledì parla Lagarde al Parlamento europeo. Focus su Mps e Mediobanca con nuovi sviluppi della procura. Gedi, Exor pronta a cedere a Theodore Kyriakou. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, un papier sur le sommeil et nos rêves dans Les Échos, la lettre de Gabriekl Attal a 60.000 chefs d'entreprise et l'intelligence artificielle accélère les risques de pénurie d'électricité. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, une enquête sur le pluralisme à Radio France Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, une enquête sur le pluralisme à Radio France Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, le rapport sur le narcotrafic en France qui révèle la gravité du fléau et des étoiles jaunes en vente sur ebay. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

APAC stocks mostly followed suit to the gains on Wall Street, where stocks were underpinned amid Russia/Ukraine optimism and a softer yield environment.US President Trump thinks they are getting very close to a deal on Ukraine, while he separately commented that they are making progress and Ukraine is happy.Nikkei 225 shrugged off a source report that the BoJ is preparing markets for a possible hike as soon as December, although one of the sources noted that the decision between hiking in December or January remained a close call; JPY strengthened, 10yr JGB futures trickled lower.NZD outperformed after the RBNZ cut the OCR by 25bps to 2.25%, as expected, and kept its options open on future policy, although its projections suggested a pause in rates throughout 2026.White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is reportedly seen as the frontrunner in the Fed Chair search, according to Bloomberg citing sources, although separate sources said “there is no frontrunner”.Looking ahead, highlights include US Dallas Fed (Oct), Jobless Claims (w/e 22 Nov), UK Autumn Budget, Fed Beige Book, Speakers including ECB's Vujcic, Lane & Lagarde, Supply from Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump thinks they are getting very close to a deal on Ukraine, while he separately commented that they are making progress and Ukraine is happy.European bourses are entirely in the green, with the FTSE 100 (+0.2%) trading cautiously ahead of the UK Autumn Budget; US equity futures are modestly firmer.DXY is essentially flat, NZD outperforms after the RBNZ cut rates by 25bps (as expected), but projections suggest a pause throughout 2026.JPY initially strengthened on reports that the BoJ is preparing markets for a possible hike as soon as December, although one of the sources noted that the decision between hiking in December or January remained a close call; JPY is now lower vs USD.Bonds are on the backfoot, paring recent upside; Gilts initially lagged, but now trading in-line with peers as traders eye Chancellor Reeves.Crude is a little lower as focus remains on Russia/Ukraine peace talks, 3M LME Copper surges.Looking ahead, highlights include US Dallas Fed (Oct), Jobless Claims (w/e 22 Nov), UK Autumn Budget, Fed Beige Book, Speakers including ECB's Lane & Lagarde, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

26/11 Futures a Ws in Rally. Il Dow chiude la terza seduta in verde, S&P500 al 2% dai record. Le speranze di un taglio Fed (85%) alimentano gli acquisti. Alphabet 13esimo record, trascina Meta (+3%) e Broadcomm. Giù Nvidia e Amd. Listini asiatici in corsa, Nikkei +2%. Il pres. di Taiwan: 40mld $ extra budget per la difesa per minaccia Cina. Ucraina -Russia, spiragli di pace. Il D-Day di Rachel Reeves per il budget di autunno. Moody's premia le banche italiane. Alle 18.00 parla Lagarde.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, le grand entretien de Jordan Bardella à la Une du JDNews, l'insécurité en Seine-Saint-Denis et les suites du cambriolage du Louvre. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

durée : 00:03:09 - Les villages de moins de 1.000 habitants confrontés à la parité pour les municipales, illustration à Lagarde près de Nailloux - Il reste moins de trois mois pour présenter les listes pour les prochaines élections municipales. Or, dans les petites communes, il est parfois difficile de trouver des candidats. Surtout, cette année, il y a une nouveauté : la parité est obligatoire. Vous aimez ce podcast ? Pour écouter tous les autres épisodes sans limite, rendez-vous sur Radio France.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, le sondage qui donne Jordan Bardella gagnant contre n'importe quel concurrent au second tour de la prochaine élection présidentielle et le parachute du dernier ressort pour le Budget. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Lundi 24 novembre, Frédéric Simottel a reçu Clément David, Président de Theodo Cloud, Enguerand Renault, directeur de la rédaction Satellifacts et Damien Douani, responsable de l'innovation de l'école Narratiiv et fondateur de Topos. Ils sont revenus sur le début prometteur de l'application Qwen AI d'Alibaba, l'éventuelle autorisation de Nvidia de vendre ses puces en Chine, et l'alerte de C. Lagarde sur le retard de l'europe, dans l'émission Tech & Co, la quotidienne, sur BFM Business. Retrouvez l'émission du lundi au jeudi et réécoutez la en podcast.

US Secretary of State Rubio said good progress had been made re. Ukraine, and none of the outstanding issues are insurmountable.European bourses opened stronger, but sentiment has waned a touch in recent trade; US equity futures are mixed.DXY is marginally subdued, EUR gains a touch amidst geopolitical progress whilst the JPY lags.Lacklustre trade across fixed income with USTs flat whilst Bunds are firmer by a handful of ticks.Oil complex has been pressured by progress on Ukrainian peace talks, XAU trades rangebound.Looking ahead, highlights include US National Activity Index (Oct), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov), Speakers including ECB's Cipollone, Elderson & Lagarde, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly firmer following the Wall St. handover, though China was mixed amid reports of Trump selling NVIDIA chips to China.Fed's Collins says she has not made up her mind on December. Treasury Secretary Bessent said prices are getting better.DXY contained, EUR/USD bounced from 1.15, Cable rangebound, USD/JPY firmer but limited in holiday trade.USTs and Bunds contained after the moves seen on Friday; Crude is uneventful, XAU continues to fade.US' Rubio said good progress had been made re. Ukraine, and none of the outstanding issues are insurmountable.Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo (Nov), US National Activity Index (Oct), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov), Speakers including ECB's Cipollone, Elderson & Lagarde, Supply from the US.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Alphabet, Broadcom y Tesla sostienen hoy a índices americanos en el rebote. La matriz de Google ha alcanzado hoy una valoración de 4 billones de dólares, convirtiéndose en la cuarta empresa que entra en ese exclusivo club. Nvidia empezaba en rojo pero se ha girado al verde tras filtrar Howard Lutnick, responsable de Comercio, que Trump sopesa la posibilidad de permitir a la empresa vender chips avanzados de IA a China. Sobre IA ha hablado Lagarde. Dice que Europa está poniendo en peligro su propio futuro al perderse el tren de esta tecnología y debe eliminar rápidamente los obstáculos que impiden su difusión. Pierden las energéticas. Caen por las dudas sobre la rebaja de tipos y las esperanzas de alivio de las sanciones a Rusia. Analizamos el mercado con Gisela Turazzini, de Blackbird.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, le budget rejeté très massivement à l'Assemblée nationale avec seulement une seule voix pour, l'arrivée du projet en discussion au Sénat Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

24/ 11 A WS torna il sereno dopo la peggior settimana da aprile, sale Nvidia su ipotesi vendita H200 alla Cina. Bessent: nessun rischio recessione, da shutdown impatto permanente di 11 miliardi. Giovedì chiusura per Thanksgiving, venerdì mezzo servizio. Focus su consumi americani, PCE e traiettoria Fed. In Asia Nikkei chiuso per festività, Hang Seng positivo, sale Alibaba. In Europa focus su Ifo tedesco, parla Lagarde dal forum AI di Bratislava. Titoli: Essilor Luxottica, Stellantis e Campari. Dal Liquidation Day del 10 ottobre ad oggi: tutta la verità sul calo del Bitcoin e le implicazioni per l'equity.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

APAC stocks traded lower across the board as the sharp Wall Street selloff reverberated through the region despite the absence of fresh catalysts.JPMorgan no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December, vs its prior forecast of a 25bp cut.10yr JGB futures retraced some of this week's losses whilst the session saw a slew of commentary from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, who, on the bond market, attempted to alleviate some fiscal woes.Japan may intervene before USD/JPY reaches 160, according to Bloomberg, citing a government panellist.Crypto markets continue bleeding with Bitcoin falling under USD 85,500 at a 7-month low, while Ethereum fell to a 4-month low.Looking ahead, UK PSNB (Oct), Retail Sales (Oct), EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs (Nov), US Real Weekly Earnings (Sep), Canadian Retail Sales (Sep), US Uni. of Michigan (Nov), Euro Area Indicator of Negotiated Wage Rates (Q3), Moody's on the UK & Italy, ECB's de Guindos, Lagarde, Nagel; Fed's Williams, Barr, Jefferson, Logan; SNB's Schlegel.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, la déclaration du général Mandon sur "la France qui doit accepter de perdre ses enfants", le déni de la menace russe, la lutte contre le narcotrafic, une majorité de LR qui souhaite l'union des droites avec le RN et le Girlcott, l'équivalent féminin du boycott Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, la déclaration du général Mandon sur "la France qui doit accepter de perdre ses enfants", le déni de la menace russe, la lutte contre le narcotrafic, une majorité de LR qui souhaite l'union des droites avec le RN et le Girlcott, l'équivalent féminin du boycott Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

L'Unione Europea prova a rinfilare chat control nella sua agenda grazie al cosiddetto Compromesso Danese. Scopriamo insieme tutti i dettagli e ricominciamo la lotta per il diritto alla privacy.Inoltre: Bitcoin è morto, La banca centrale ceca sperimenta la riserva di valore in bitcoin, Recover Bull il nuovo schema di backup delle chiavi private, e NiceHash lancia la vendita di bitcoin vergini.It's showtime!

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, la colère des patrons contre Emmanuel Macron, le budget 2026 et la DZ Mafia.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, Emmanuel Macron et les patrons, la Suisse et Donald Trump en guerre sur les droits de douanes.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, des sondages sur les "petits blonds Normands" et sur les jeunes musulmans de France, et des maires dépassés par le narcotrafic.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: So today and tomorrow, a two-part conversation on Morgan Stanley's year ahead outlook. Today, we'll focus on the all-important macroeconomic backdrop. And tomorrow, we'll be back with our views on investing across asset classes and markets. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, l'interview de Roland Lescure, le début du sommet Choose France, le vent de panique sur les patrimoines français et un gouvernement dépassé par les débats sur le budget. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, les ingénieurs qui ont perdu confiance en la reconquête industrielle de la France, le retour de Boualem Sansal sur fond de polémique entre macroniste et retailliste, les attaques d'ours terrorisent la population au Japon. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Dura condanna per lo sviluppatore di Samourai Wallet. Massimo della pena. Cosa significa per il mondo dello sviluppo open source?Inoltre: un nuovo documentario su Bitcoin accende le speranze, Mi Primer Bitcoin lascia definitivamente El Salvador, Square abilita i pagamenti in bitcoin, e una panel sul Lightning Network esemplifica tutta la complessità della scalabilità.It's showtime!

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, le récit du 13 novembre 2015 au Stade de France, Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, les commémorations des 10 ans des attentats du 13 novembre et le Jour J pour la suspension de la réforme des retraites. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

APAC stocks were mostly subdued with the region failing to sustain the positive global risk momentum that had been spurred by US-China trade optimism and US government reopening hopes, while there were few fresh catalysts overnight to fuel the recent rally.US Senate voted 60 vs. 40 to pass legislation to fund the federal government and end the shutdown, while the bill now goes to the House.US House Speaker Johnson is seeking a Wednesday vote on the stopgap bill, and won't commit to an ACA subsidy vote.China is reportedly devising a plan to keep the US military from getting its rare earth magnets and is considering a ‘validated end-user' system to fast-track certain export licenses, according to WSJ.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4% after the cash market finished with gains of 1.8% on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Unemployment/Wages (Sep), EZ & German ZEW (Nov), US NFIB (Oct), Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP, Riksbank Minutes, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Greene & Dhingra, RBA's Jones, Supply from Netherlands, Earnings from Porsche SE, RWE & Alcon. Holidays: US Veterans' Day; Canadian Remembrance DayRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, l'indépendance de l'île de Bougainville et l'affrontement des deux empires Pinault et Arnault sur la pelouse du stade Jean Bouin. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, une étude qu'aurait la Russie aurait d'attaquer l'Europe, la guerre économique contre Shein, la guerre des gauches, le drame d'Oléron, l'interview de Gérald Darmanin et les gagnants de l'Euromillions. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Deze week hebben we het natuurlijk uitgebreid over de daling van bitcoin. De munt kwam deze week voor het eerst in 6 maanden onder de $100.000. Hoe nu verder? Daarnaast staan we stil bij de shutdown in de VS, hebben we een nieuw Polymarket gokje, zien we de eerste Bitcoin Treasury Company bitcoin verkopen en luisteren we naar Lagarde's update rondom de digitale euro.Probeer Bitcoin Alpha 2 weken gratis!Satoshi Radio wordt mede mogelijk gemaakt door: Firefish, Amdax, Watson Law en onze hoofdsponsor Bitvavo.Timestamps(00:00:00) Welkom en Podcast Introductie(00:12:00) Vragen van luisteraars(00:22:00) Bookmark van Bert: Trump insider with 100% win rate just got fully liquidated(00:37:00) Bookmark van Peter: “We're making the US the bitcoin superpower [..]”(00:44:46) Bookmark van Bert: Scott Bessent: “Bitcoin never shuts down” (01:09:00) Bookmark van Bart: Coinmerce heeft Mica(01:15:00) Bookmark van Bart: US Government Seeks Maximum Sentence For Keonne Rodriguez And William Hill(01:17:30) Bookmark van Bart: Sequans Redeems 50% of Convertible Debt Through Strategic Asset Reallocation.(01:22:00) Bookmark van Peter: Werk aan digitale euro versnelt(01:31:00) Marktupdate(00:00:00) EindeBookmarksBert:Trump insider with 100% win rate just got fully liquidatedDe trades van de Trump insider op HyperdashAlpha-artikel over Survivorship BiasScott Bessent: “Bitcoin never shuts down”Mail van Satoshi naar cryptography mailing listPolymarket over government shutdownBart:Coinmerce heeft Mica Revolut heeft MicaSequans Redeems 50% of Convertible Debt Through Strategic Asset Reallocation.Ja, maar dit zat er aan te komen, natuurlijk, logisch!US Government Seeks Maximum Sentence For Keonne Rodriguez And William HillTether maakt $10 miljard(!) winst tot nu toe in 2025Peter:“We're making the US the bitcoin superpower [..]”Galaxy neemt afscheid van de 4-year cycleWintermute zegt 'm ook vaarwelUdi Wertheimer past z'n voorspelling ook aanDe beren komen even uit hun winterslaapWerk aan digitale euro versnelt

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, la victoire du socialiste Zohran Mamdani à New-York, Rachida Dati toujours en tête des intentions de vote pour la mairie de Paris et de possibles primaires à droite. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the mixed lead from Wall St, where the majority of sectors declined but tech outperformed.RBA kept Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%, as expected; judged some of the increase in underlying inflation in Q3 was due to temporary factors.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.8% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3% on Monday.DXY is flat, antipodeans lag with AUD softer post-RBA. JPY outperforms, underpinned by a haven bid and more verbal intervention.In a rare pre-budget press conference today, UK Chancellor Reeves will indicate she is prepared to break Labour's manifesto promise not to raise income tax, according to The Telegraph.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Trade, US RCM/TIPP, New Zealand Jobs, RBNZ FSR, BoJ Minutes (Sep), French Assembly PLF vote process begins, ECB's Lagarde, Nagel and Balz, BoE's Breeden & Fed's Bowman, Supply from UK & Germany.Earnings from Phillips, Evonik, Fresenius MC, Ferrari, BP; AMD, Supermicro, Marathon, Pfizer & Uber.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, les vainqueurs du Prix Goncourt et du prix Renaudot seont dévoilés aujourd'hui, les mémoires de Roi d'Espagne Juan Carlos et les discussions qui se poursuivent sur les budgets. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, le coût des maladies mentales en France, les intentions de vote pour la présidentielle, Éric Dupond-Moretti avocat d'Emmanuel Macron et l'initiative gastronomique de Yann Arthus-Bertrand. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Christophe Bordet remplace Olivier de Lagarde ce vendredi 31 octobre 2025. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today's decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 30 October 2025. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 30 October 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2025/html/mopo_statement_explained_october.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 30 October 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is251030~4f74dde15e.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 30 October 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.mp251030~cf0540b5c0.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 30 October 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds251030~25d99d5b1c.en.pdf European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

Nel terzo trimestre 2025 il Pil italiano, corretto per gli effetti di calendario, è rimasto invariato rispetto al trimestre precedente e in crescita dello 0,4% su base annua, secondo le stime preliminari dell'Istat. Dopo il -0,1% del secondo trimestre e il +0,3% del primo, la crescita zero non modifica la stima acquisita per l'anno, pari allo 0,5%, in linea con le previsioni del governo. L'aumento del valore aggiunto nell'agricoltura è stato compensato dal calo dell'industria e dalla stabilità dei servizi. Dal lato della domanda, contributo negativo della componente interna e positivo di quella estera netta. Affrontiamo il tema con Carlo Altomonte, Associate Dean e Direttore PNRR Lab, SDA Bocconi, e membro CD Fondazione M&MLa Bce lascia i tassi fermi al 2%, come da atteseLa Bce, riunita a Firenze, ha mantenuto invariati i tassi: 2% sui depositi, 2,15% sui rifinanziamenti principali e 2,40% sui prestiti marginali. L'inflazione resta vicina al target del 2% e le prospettive restano stabili, sebbene il contesto globale resti incerto per le tensioni geopolitiche e commerciali. Lagarde ha sottolineato che l'economia continua a mostrare resilienza grazie al mercato del lavoro e alla solidità dei bilanci privati. La crescita dello 0,2% nell'area euro nel terzo trimestre è risultata leggermente sopra le attese. La presidente ha inoltre annunciato l'avvio della nuova fase dell'euro digitale, che garantirà privacy, sicurezza e competitività nei pagamenti. Il commento è affidato a Donato Masciandaro, docente politiche monetarie Università BocconiBorse Ue restano in rosso dopo nulla di fatto Bce. A Wall Street giù Meta e MicrosoftI listini europei chiudono in calo dopo la decisione della Bce di lasciare i tassi invariati e in una settimana intensa per le trimestrali e le banche centrali globali. A Wall Street pesano le vendite su Meta (-11,8%) e Microsoft, penalizzate dalle previsioni di maggiori investimenti in IA, mentre Alphabet sale grazie ai ricavi pubblicitari. In Europa, la crescita del Pil del terzo trimestre è risultata leggermente superiore alle attese (+0,2% nell'eurozona, +0,3% nell'Ue), trainata da Francia e Spagna. A Piazza Affari bene Campari e Tenaris, male Prysmian e Stellantis (-10,1%), colpita dai dubbi sul futuro outlook e dalle incertezze legate alla crisi dei semiconduttori. Affrontiamo il tema con Martina Soligo, RadiocorVertice Usa-Cina, Trump: «Taglio ai dazi e accordo sulle terre rare»Donald Trump e Xi Jinping si sono incontrati a Busan raggiungendo un accordo per dimezzare i dazi statunitensi sui prodotti cinesi e rilanciare le esportazioni di soia americana, terre rare e controlli sul fentanyl. Trump ha inoltre annunciato la ripresa dei test sulle armi nucleari, sostenendo di voler mantenere il primato militare Usa. Pechino sospenderà per un anno i limiti all'export di alcune terre rare, sebbene restino in vigore restrizioni introdotte in aprile. L'intesa avrà ripercussioni dirette sull'Unione Europea, come sottolineato dal commissario Ue al Commercio Maros Sefcovic. Ne parliamo con Marco Masciaga, Il Sole 24 Ore, New Delhi

La posta è sempre alta: come scalare Bitcoin. Arkade delude parzialmente le aspettative e la ricerca continua.Inoltre: Christine Lagarde al mercato, il fork BIP-444 e tutte le sue assurdità, e il PlanP Forum di Lugano si conferma l'evento finance di riferimento.It's showtime!

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, les Français ne veulent plus faire d'enfant et le business du chagrin. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, le monde du travail se transforme face à l'IA, l'offenssive médiatique de Jordan Bardella et le contre-budget de Sarah Knafo et la femme la plus riche du monde. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.