Podcasts about Lagarde

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Latest podcast episodes about Lagarde

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
EU Market Open: Europe primed for a flat open as Oil and Yields take a breather

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 19, 2026 1:47


US President Trump is waiting for Iran to cave to his economic pressure, but Tehran may be willing to wait even longer, according to POLITICO.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran rejected ceasefire proposals and said that the war must end, not pause.US President Trump posted that he has paused the 50% tariffs on Canada, due to kick in on August 19th, for a three-day period; Canadian PM Carney confirmed the pause until the end of August 21st.APAC stocks were mostly lower following the tech-led declines stateside; European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open.Crude futures edged higher amid the ongoing stalemate regarding the Strait of Hormuz; bond yields eased.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Inflation (Jul), EU Inflation Final (Jul), and FOMC Minutes (Jul). Comments from ECB's Lagarde. Supply from Germany and the US. Earnings from Lowe's.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: Stocks flat with quiet action elsewhere; USD moves lower into FOMC minutes

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 19, 2026 2:18


US President Trump is waiting for Iran to cave to his economic pressure, but Tehran may be willing to wait even longer, according to POLITICO.A source close to Iran's negotiating team said there had been no direct Iran-US negotiations and that talks with Oman concerned sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, according to Fars News.US President Trump announced that the US is to pause the 50% tariffs on Canada.US equity futures muted; SK Hynix ADRs surge following share buyback announcement.DXY lower; JPY outperforms while GBP follows despite a mixed inflation reading.Fixed income benchmarks steady after recent steepening and rangebound energy prices (Brent +1.0%).Looking ahead, highlights include FOMC Minutes (Jul). Comments from ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Musalem and US President Trump. Supply from the US. Earnings from Lowe's.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The ECB Podcast
President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 23 July 2026

The ECB Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 23, 2026 14:40


Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today's decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 23 July 2026. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 23 July 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2026/html/mopo_statement_explained_july.en.html Christine Lagarde, Boris Vujčić: Monetary policy statement, 23 July 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2026/html/ecb.is260723~b6fadd48f4.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 23 July 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260723~29f24d99bc.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 23 July 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds260723~ef801dc812.en.pdf European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html #MonetaryPolicy #EuropeanCentralBank #ChristineLagarde #Finance #FinancialConditions #Inflation #EconomicActivity #EconomicOutlook #PressConference #Banking #CentralBanking #Podcast #Economics #EU #Europe #ECB

Les Nuits de France Culture
Architecture et Patrimoine : conserver, protéger, restaurer, réhabiliter 6/12 : Le patrimoine, une obsession française ? Pierre de Lagarde au secours des chefs-d'œuvre en péril

Les Nuits de France Culture

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 23, 2026 57:19


durée : 00:57:19 - Les Nuits de France Culture - par : Albane Penaranda - Pierre de Lagarde, lanceur d'alerte du patrimoine ? En 2004, un documentaire de "La Fabrique de l'histoire" raconte l'aventure radiophonique et télévisuelle de "Chefs-d'œuvre en péril" et comment cette émission a participé à la sensibilisation aux questions de la préservation du patrimoine français. - équipe : Mathias Le Gargasson, Antoine Dhulster, Rafik Zénine, Vincent Abouchar, Emily Vallat, Hassane M'Béchour, INA Vous aimez ce podcast ? Pour écouter tous les épisodes sans limite, rendez-vous sur Radio France

Mercado Abierto
Vistazo a la macro de la jornada

Mercado Abierto

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 23, 2026 8:56


Repasamos los datos macro clave de la sesión, con atención a los mensajes de Lagarde y a la reunión de la FED de la semana que viene. Con Diego Puertas, analista de Serenity Markets.

Eth maitin d'Aran
Eth maitin d'Aran der ostiu 20/07/2026

Eth maitin d'Aran

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2026 60:00


Era actualitat dera Val d'Aran en aran

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: US equity futures firm, USD attracts carry demand to the detriment of low-yielders

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 6, 2026 1:49


Islamabad is the more likely option for the next round of US-Iran technical talks, with July 11th expected to be the date, Fox reported.OPEC+ agreed to raise output targets by an additional 188k bpd, in line with the group's plan to reverse output curbs.European equity futures trade tentatively; US equity futures are indicative of a stronger open, NQ +1%.G10s are mostly lower against the USD. USD/JPY continues to rise, and sits back above the 162.30 mark.Fixed benchmarks trade with very mild gains, with USTs awaiting ISM Services.Looking ahead, highlights include US S&P Services/Composite PMI Final (Jun), and ISM Services PMI (Jun). Speakers include Fed's Waller, BoE's Mann, ECB's Schnabel, Lagarde and Lane.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
EU Market Open: Europe primed for quiet open with newsflow light; USD/JPY remains on intervention watch

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 6, 2026 1:58


Asia-Pac stocks initially started the session with broad gains, but later reversed. Crude futures started the week on the back foot.Islamabad is the more likely option for the next round of US-Iran technical talks, with July 11th expected to be the date, Fox reported.OPEC+ agreed to raise output targets by an additional 188k bpd, in line with the group's plan to reverse output curbs.Ship-tracking data showed that at least 8 ships attempting to leave the Strait of Hormuz turned back, with the reasons unknown.European equity futures are indicative of a flat/slightly softer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1% after cash closed +0.8% on Friday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Factory Orders (May), EU Retail Sales (May), US S&P Services/Composite PMI Final (Jun), and ISM Services PMI (Jun). Speakers include Fed's Waller, BoE's Mann, ECB's Schnabel, Lagarde and Lane.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
EU Market Open: KOSPI (+4.8%) rebounds from recent losses, and European equity futures indicative of a firmer open; USD/JPY holds near recent lows

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 3, 2026 2:13


US President Trump warned that Iran has some missiles left and that they could wipe those out. It was separately suggested that Trump made it clear Iran cannot impose fees on the Strait of Hormuz.APAC stocks gained, with strength seen in the KOSPI (+4.6%); European equity futures are indicative of a slightly firmer open.DXY traded subdued at around 100.70; USD/JPY holds just above the 161.00 mark, taking a breather following recent pressure.US and China are moving towards reducing tariffs on each other's agricultural products, Semafor reported.Highlights include Global S&P Services/Composite PMI Final (Jun), BoE DMP (Jun), Speakers including ECB's Lagarde & BoE's Bailey.Holiday: US Independence Day. Newsquawk audio and headline service will stop at 18:15BST/13:15EDT, however, Newsquawk widgets will continue to function as usual.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Kees de Kort | BNR
ECB-baas Lagarde roept centrale bankiers op ‘back to basics' te gaan

Kees de Kort | BNR

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 3, 2026 7:23


Centrale bankiers trokken zich deze week terug op een resort in Portugal voor het jaarlijkse Sintra-forum van de Europese Centrale Bank. Volgens macro-econoom Arnoud Boot ‘een mooi podium’ om van gedachten te wisselen, met een opvallende toespraak van ECB-baas Christine Lagarde die daar pleitte voor ‘back to basics'. Hoe belangrijk is dat forum, Arnoud? Het is een jaarlijkse bijeenkomst met centrale bankiers, beleidsmakers – ook van buiten Europa – en academici. Een soort retraite om na te denken over het beleid van de ECB, op een heel ontspannen locatie: een landgoed in Sintra. Omdat er tientallen journalisten rondlopen, wordt ieder woord gewogen. Toch was er dit keer niet zo heel veel nieuws. Wat maakte die toespraak van Lagarde dan bijzonder? Die was getiteld ‘Back to Basics’. Dat triggerde mij. Want centrale bankiers worden nu gedwongen zich terug te trekken op hun enige mandaat: inflatie bestrijden en de inflatie onder controle houden. Ze moeten zich eigenlijk weghouden van politiek gevoelige kwesties. Denk bijvoorbeeld aan de hele discussie over klimaat en verduurzaming, waar centrale bankiers zich de afgelopen jaren nadrukkelijk over hebben uitgelaten. Maar de Nederlandse ECB-directeur Frank Elderson pleit wel voor aandacht voor verduurzaming. Hij heeft een paar maanden geleden in NRC nog gezegd: ‘Wij moeten ons als ECB wel bezighouden met het klimaat. Anders nemen wij ons werk niet serieus. Wij gaan over prijsstabiliteit, financiële stabiliteit en gezonde, weerbare banken. Die doelstellingen kunnen we alleen behalen als we rekening houden met de klimaat- en natuurcrisis.’ Elderson is iemand die ook eerder in zijn carrière bij De Nederlandsche Bank klimaatverandering nadrukkelijk centraal heeft gesteld. Klimaat is juist cruciaal voor prijsstabiliteit. Als klimaatverandering leidt tot grote verstoringen van de wereldeconomie, waardoor het aanbod onder druk komt te staan, heeft dat directe gevolgen voor de inflatie. Daarom moet je het klimaat serieus nemen. Daar heeft hij ook gelijk in, laat daar geen misverstand over bestaan. Maar daar gaat de discussie niet over. Waar gaat de discussie dan wél over? Over de vraag of een president van een centrale bank, zoals Lagarde, zich kan uitspreken over klimaat, omdat dit problematiek is die over enkele jaren haar weerslag zal hebben op het kernmandaat van de ECB. De kern van haar back-to-basics-boodschap was dat centrale bankiers het in deze onvoorspelbare tijd weliswaar moeilijk hebben, maar dat de rente inmiddels weer positief is. Daardoor beschikken zij over een normaal monetair instrumentarium. Als we de economie willen aanjagen, kunnen we de rente verlagen. En als we de economie willen afremmen, kunnen we de rente verhogen. We bevinden ons dus weer in een normale monetaire omgeving. Dat was haar interpretatie.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bitcoin Italia Podcast
S08E26 - Finimondo

Bitcoin Italia Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 2, 2026 76:27


È un bagno di umiltà quello che ci portiamo a casa dalla fiera We Make Future, mentre Binance non ottiene la certificazione Mica e Strategy inverte la rotta promettendo di vendere sempre più spesso Bitcoin. È il finomondo?Inoltre: la BIS critica le stablecoin, nuovo bug fatale affossa Cardano e arriva il "player 2" nel ricco mercato delle stablecoin.It's Showtime!

Genial Podcast

O foco se volta para Sintra, onde Warsh e Lagarde falam às 10h.

Squawk Box Europe Express
ECB's Lagarde backs June rate decision

Squawk Box Europe Express

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 30, 2026 27:09


We are live at the Sintra Forum where ECB President Christine Lagarde has backed the central bank's decision to hike rates in June as necessary to rein in inflation. However, Lagarde insists ‘unconventional instruments' are no longer needed since the last inflation shock. The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that President Trump does not currently have the power to remove Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud but could be granted them in the future. The U.S. and Iran present mixed messages ahead of peace talks in Doha. President Trump has reiterated his claim that the war has been won.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

WakeMed Voices
PreciselyYou

WakeMed Voices

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 24, 2026


Dr. Bill Lagarde discusses PreciselyYou, a community health research program brought to you by WakeMed. The program helps you understand how your DNA impacts your health and aims to help improve access to more personalized care, while supporting new research discoveries for our community.  Learn more about Dr. Lagarde. 

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
EU Market Open: Crude reverses opening bid on US-Iran comments; USD firms, GBP eyes potential PM resignation

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 22, 2026 2:40


Crude opened firmer after reports suggested Iran had closed the Strait of Hormuz. However, this then reversed on a joint mediator statement, Brent currently in the red.Thereafter, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi flagged major progress, mediators say technical talks will continue this week.APAC stocks were mixed give the above. European futures point to a softer open, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.4%.USD choppy but marginally firmer vs major peers. USTs and Bunds in the green but relatively contained.Mixed reporting on what UK PM Starmer will do in the next few days. Elsewhere, Burnham's team are said to be divided over who to appoint as Chancellor.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Inflation (May), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (Jun), CNB Minutes (Jun) Speakers including Fed's Waller & ECB's Lagarde.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: US indices quiet as energy trickles lower; GBP unreactive as UK PM steps down

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 22, 2026 2:06


Over the weekend, Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz amidst continued Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon. This led to Brent Aug'26 to gap higher by c. USD 2/bbl.Thereafter, attention turned to negotiations, which yielded progress and improved the geopolitical mood. Brent Aug'26 then moved into the red, currently -1.8%.China added 10 US firms to its export control list, including USA Rare Earths, while the Finance Ministry announced it would take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities.European bourses trade tentatively alongside similar action across US equity futures.DXY is a touch firmer this morning; USD/JPY continues to rise, and eyes 162.00 to the upside.Global fixed benchmarks are mixed; Gilts digest UK PM Starmer's decision to resign.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Inflation (May), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (Jun), CNB Minutes (Jun), and speakers including Fed's Waller & ECB's Lagarde.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
EU Market Open: Energy benchmarks towards lows, Europe set for muted open with markets tentative into Fed announcement

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 17, 2026 2:10


The US will allow Iran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel under the deal to end the war, offering Tehran an early financial incentive to wind down the conflict, WSJ reports, citing sources.Iran and Oman are already talking about how they will manage the Strait of Hormuz, as laid out in one of the reported points. They want to charge a "fee" for the management "services”, NYP reports, citing sources.IDF is prepared to stay in southern Lebanon for a significant period, Kann News reports. Reports of artillery shelling have continued in southern Lebanon.The US delayed the blacklisting of China's DeepSeek and over 100 Chinese firms deemed national security risks, to avoid escalating tensions with Beijing, Reuters reports, citing sources.APAC stocks were mixed, whilst US equity futures are indicative of a slightly weaker open.DXY trades tentatively as markets await today's Fed policy decision, and the debut of Chair Warsh; CHF incrementally leads, whilst the Kiwi lags.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Inflation Report (May), ECB Wage Tracker (Jun), EU Inflation Final (May), US Retail Sales (May), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), New Zealand GDP (Q1), Riksbank Policy Announcement, Fed Policy Announcement, BCB Policy Announcement, IEA OMR. Speakers include ECB's Cipollone & Lagarde, Riksbank's Thedeen & Fed's Warsh. Supply from Australia & Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: US equity futures gain, GBP weaker after cooler than exp. CPI, USD benefits into FOMC

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 17, 2026 1:47


An informed source told Tasnim that Bloomberg's alleged text of the US-Iran MoU is not accurate, but that the finalised text will be published after the signing on Friday. However, it was initially stated that it would not be published. US equity futures gain steadily; Germany's DAX 40 underperforms, weighed by BMW's guidance cut.DXY flat, G10s mixed; SEK softer despite Riksbank forecasts of a greater chance of a rate hike.Fixed income muted, while gilts outperform following cooler-than-expected CPI; Fed announcement ahead. Energy benchmarks contained in narrow ranges, as the focus remains on the US-Iran MoU signing. Looking ahead, highlights include US Retail Sales (May), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), New Zealand GDP (Q1), Fed Policy Announcement, BCB Policy Announcement, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde & Fed's Warsh.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Les matins
Christine Lagarde est l'invitée exceptionnelle des Matins

Les matins

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 15, 2026 38:42


durée : 00:38:42 - Les Matins de France Culture - par : Guillaume Erner - Alors que s'ouvre le sommet du G7, Christine Lagarde, présidente de la Banque centrale européenne, est l'invitée de Guillaume Erner. Elle nous explique comment l'Europe compte préserver sa souveraineté économique face à la stratégie commerciale américaine et la concurrence chinoise. - réalisation : Félicie Faugère, Yoann Duval, Marie-Lys de Saint Salvy, Emma Lichtenstein, Mathilde Thon-Fourcade, Alice Deschamps, Carolina Sousa - invités : Christine Lagarde Présidente de la Banque centrale européenne Vous aimez ce podcast ? Pour écouter tous les épisodes sans limite, rendez-vous sur Radio France

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
EU Market Open: Risk assets rally as Brent slips to $83 on US-Iran framework peace agreement

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 15, 2026 2:09


The US and Iran have reached a framework peace agreement; the US will lift its naval blockade, whilst the Iranians will reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Pakistani PM suggested it would be signed in person on Friday, 19th June; Brent Aug'26 -4.3%.The deal includes the termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon; Israel has yet to comment on the latest deal.Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said talks are contingent on the release of assets and the lifting of sanctions; though a US official pushed back on the unconditional fund release, stating that any release is tied to a pay-for-performance deal.APAC stocks rallied following the US-Iran deal announcement; European equity futures are indicative of a strong open.DXY pressured back towards the 99.40 level; Antipodeans outperform given the risk tone.Looking ahead, highlights include German Wholesale Prices (May), EU Industrial Production (Apr), US Industrial/Manufacturing Production (May), and comments from ECB's Lagarde.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Les matins
Christine Lagarde est l'invitée des Matins / Diplomatie du sumo / Réguler l'accès aux montagnes

Les matins

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 14, 2026 149:10


durée : 02:29:10 - Les Matins de France Culture - par : Guillaume Erner - Ce matin, à 7h40 et à 8h20, Guillaume Erner reçoit la présidente de la Banque centrale européenne, Christine Lagarde, pour un entretien exclusif. A 7h17, Yves Cadot expose les implications diplomatiques du tournoi de sumo qui se déroule à Paris les 13 et 14 juin. - réalisation : Félicie Faugère, Marie-Lys de Saint Salvy, Mathilde Thon-Fourcade, Emma Lichtenstein, Juliette Devaux, Jean Leymarie, François Saltiel, Alexandra Delbot, Lucile Commeaux, Gilles Gressani, Yoann Duval, Alice Deschamps Vous aimez ce podcast ? Pour écouter tous les épisodes sans limite, rendez-vous sur Radio France

¡Buenos días, Javi y Mar!
06:00H | 11 JUN 2026 | ¡Buenos días, Javi y Mar!

¡Buenos días, Javi y Mar!

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 11, 2026 60:00


¡Buenos días, Javi y Mar!' en CADENA 100 informa hoy. Un anticiclón trae buen tiempo a España, con 36ºC en el sur y nubes en el norte. Se inaugura la Torre de Jesús en la Sagrada Familia de Barcelona. El Papa Francisco viaja a Canarias para conocer el drama de la inmigración. La UE plantea subir tipos de interés, primera vez desde 2023, para moderar la inflación, según Lagarde. Julian Barnes gana el Premio Princesa de Asturias de las Letras 2026. Pablo Gallinar vuela en un avión acrobático JAK 52 para Rock in Rio Lisboa. Oyentes comparten sus experiencias del 'mejor día de su vida', con viajes o hallazgos. Prada diseña ropa interior tecnológica para los astronautas de la misión Artemisa. Jimeno y los niños comentan quién conduce peor, papá o mamá. Suenan canciones de Álvaro de Luna, Luis Fonsi con Demi Lovato, The Cardigans y Christina Aguilera.

The ECB Podcast
President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 11 June 2026

The ECB Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 11, 2026 17:46


Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today's decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 11 June 2026. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 11 June 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2026/html/mopo_statement_explained_june.en.html Christine Lagarde, Boris Vujčić: Monetary policy statement, 11 June 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2026/html/ecb.is260611~372040d313.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 11 June 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260611~4d41bd5e83.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 11 June 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds260611~5b4603b5aa.en.pdf Macroeconomic projections, 11 June 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/index.en.html European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

Focus economia
Lavoro in aumento ma stipendi in calo per i laureati italiani

Focus economia

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 11, 2026


Lavoro in aumento ma stipendi in calo per i laureati italianiPiù occupati rispetto a un anno fa, ma meno retribuiti. Con un vantaggio lavorativo e stipendiale che privilegia i laureati rispetto alle laureate e i residenti al Centro-Nord invece che al Sud. È questa, in estrema sintesi, la fotografia che emerge dal XXVIII Rapporto AlmaLaurea su Laurea e Occupazione presentato all università della Basilicata durante il convegno dal titolo Efficacia della formazione universitaria .Nel complesso, le due rilevazioni hanno coinvolto, per i percorsi di laurea, quasi 335 mila persone che hanno completato gli studi nel 2025 in 81 atenei aderenti al Consorzio, e quasi 700mila per gli esiti occupazionali, intervistati a uno, tre e cinque anni dal conseguimento del titolo. Il tasso occupazionale dei laureati è in aumento. A un anno arriva all 81,2% tra chi ha conseguito una laurea di primo livello e all 80,8% nel secondo livello (in crescita, rispettivamente, di +2,6 e +2,2 punti rispetto alla rilevazione precedente). A cinque anni dalla laurea l occupazione tocca il 91,7% nel primo livello, contro il 92,8 per cento del 2024. Nel secondo livello si arriva al 94,4%, che è il valore più alto dell ultimo quindicennio e rappresenta un miglioramento del 4,7% rispetto ai 12 mesi precedenti. Parallelamente, il tasso di disoccupazione a un anno cala al 9,2% nel primo livello e al 9,3% nel secondo. A cinque anni dal titolo la disoccupazione precipita fino al 2,6 per cento. Lo stesso segno positivo registrato sul fronte del lavoro non si registra però sugli stipendi. A un anno dalla laurea la retribuzione mensile netta è in media di 1.491 euro nel primo livello e 1.495 nel secondo; al netto dell inflazione, le retribuzioni reali sono risultate in lieve calo nell ultimo anno (rispettivamente -1,4% e -0,9%). Dopo cinque anni per fortuna il quadro migliora. La retribuzione mensile netta è pari a 1.796 euro per i laureati di primo livello e a 1.903 euro per quelli di secondo livello. Con un aumento dell 1,6% per questi ultimi e una sostanziale stabilità per i primi. Ne parliamo con Massimo Baldini, docente di Scienza delle Finanze presso l'Università di Modena e Reggio EmiliaLa Bce alza costo denaro di 25 punti base Dopo 13 mesi fermi al 2%, i tassi d interesse nell area dell euro sono tornati a salire oggi dello 0,25%, a distanza di un anno esatto dall ultimo taglio. Il tasso sui depositi presso la Bce, mediante il quale il Consiglio direttivo orienta la politica monetaria, passerà dal 2% - livello sul quale è rimasto per 12 mesi- al 2,25 per cento. Come si legge nel comunicato, «Il Consiglio direttivo si impegna a definire la politica monetaria in modo da assicurare che l inflazione si stabilizzi sull obiettivo del 2% a medio termine. In linea con questo impegno ha deciso oggi di innalzare di 25 punti base i tre tassi di interesse di riferimento della Bce. Il conflitto in Medio Oriente sta generando pressioni inflazionistiche e la decisione di aumentare i tassi è solida rispetto a una serie di scenari che delineano come lo shock potrebbe evolvere e incidere sulle prospettive di medio termine per l area dell euro». In conferenza stampa la presidente della Bce Christine Lagarde ha dichiarato: "La decisione che abbiamo preso non è una decisione drastica": un aumento di 25 punti base dei tassi "è una decisione che, chiaramente, invia un segnale ed è necessaria data la situazione economica in cui ci troviamo, l'incertezza che stiamo affrontando, le prospettive inflazionistiche e le proiezioni elaborate dall'Eurosistema". Lagarde ha anche aggiunto: Con una crescita 2026 rivista allo 0,8% da 0,9% precedente "non è che ci troviamo in un contesto in cui la crescita manca o sia minacciata in modo significativo". Lagarde ha citato "i numeri che abbiamo, le prospettive inflazionistiche, i rischi al rialzo sull'inflazione, la solidità della decisione in tutti gli scenari quello negativo, quello molto negativo e quello meno negativo e il fatto che questa decisione regga in tutte le circostanze". Lagarde ha ricordato che per la crescita "si può fare molto di più attraverso riforme strutturali, favorendo un mercato europeo senza ostacoli al commercio, l'unione dei risparmi e degli investimenti e così via". Approfondiamo il tema con Franco Bruni, presidente dell'Ispi e professore emerito del dipartimento di Economia dell'Università Bocconi.Fabi, su Mps priorità alla tutela a lavoratori e professionalità"Le eventuali evoluzioni degli assetti societari che riguardino il Monte dei Paschi di Siena non possono prescindere dalla tutela dell'occupazione, delle professionalità e delle condizioni di lavoro delle lavoratrici e dei lavoratori del Gruppo". Così lunedì il coordinatore Fabi del Gruppo Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Guido Fasano, circa le operazioni che riguardano il settore bancario e coinvolgono Mps. "Le lavoratrici e i lavoratori di Mps - aggiunge - hanno contribuito in modo determinante al rilancio e alla stabilizzazione della banca e rappresentano un patrimonio di competenze e professionalità che deve essere valorizzato e preservato. Riteniamo fondamentale salvaguardare l'integrità del Monte dei Paschi di Siena, la sua identità storica, il suo radicamento nei territori e il valore economico e sociale che continua a rappresentare per il Paese. Qualsiasi progetto futuro dovrà riconoscere e tutelare questo patrimonio, evitando che logiche esclusivamente finanziarie ne compromettano il valore industriale, occupazionale e territoriale. Per questo riteniamo indispensabile un confronto costante con le organizzazioni sindacali, il cui ruolo resta centrale per governare ogni possibile ricaduta sull'occupazione, sull'organizzazione del lavoro e sulle prospettive professionali delle lavoratrici e dei lavoratori. La Fabi continuerà a seguire con la massima attenzione l'evoluzione della situazione, per garantire la tutela dei lavoratori e delle loro famiglie". Dello stesso tenore le dichiarazioni di ieri di Luigi Vaudo, ex coordinatore Fabi in Piazzetta Cuccia, oggi membro della segreteria Fabi in Mps: "È ormai da oltre un anno e mezzo che le lavoratrici e i lavoratori del Gruppo Mediobanca vivono in una situazione di forte incertezza sul proprio futuro". "Prima l'Ops promossa da Mps - ha aggiunto - oggi le nuove operazioni straordinarie che coinvolgono il settore bancario e che potrebbero determinare ulteriori rinvii e nuove attese incertezze per gli oltre 5.000 dipendenti del Gruppo. Ricordiamo che, poco prima dell'avvio dell'Ops di Mps, era stata approvata all'unanimità la piattaforma per il rinnovo del Contratto Integrativo Aziendale. Un percorso negoziale che è stato successivamente sospeso a causa dell'assenza delle necessarie condizioni di governance", afferma. "Dopo diciotto mesi di instabilità e di continui interrogativi sul futuro societario, riteniamo che sia giunto il momento di riportare al centro dell'attenzione le persone che ogni giorno garantiscono con competenza, professionalità e impegno i risultati del Gruppo Mediobanca", sottolinea. Ne parliamo con Lando Maria Sileoni, segretario generale FABI (Federazione Autonoma Bancari Italiani).

Blue Alpine Cast - Kryptowährung, News und Analysen (Bitcoin, Ethereum und co)
CBDC & digitaler Euro: Warum Lagarde vor Stablecoins warnt – und die Zentralbanker streiten

Blue Alpine Cast - Kryptowährung, News und Analysen (Bitcoin, Ethereum und co)

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 9, 2026 10:53


Jetzt bei Kraken anmelden und 30 EUR Bonus erhalten: https://bit.ly/kraken-bonusCBDC und der digitale Euro spalten Europas Zentralbanker. EZB-Chefin Lagarde warnt vor Stablecoins wie USDC und Tether, Themen & Timestamps:00:00 Stablecoin-Regulierung in Europa und den USA00:32 USDC, Bankenrisiken und zentrale Reserven01:09 Operation Choke Point 2.002:47 MiCA verändert Europas Stablecoin-Markt04:08 Tokenklassen und MiCA-Reservepflichten06:02 Warum USDT in Europa verdrängt wird07:01 USA, Grossbritannien und der Stablecoin-Streit09:06 Lagardes drei Hauptsorgen

Tech&Co
Caroline Lagarde, cheffe de produit chez Withings – 04/06

Tech&Co

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 4, 2026 7:41


Caroline Lagarde, cheffe de produit chez Withings, était l'invitée de François Sorel dans Tech & Co, la quotidienne, ce jeudi 4 juin. Elle s'est penchée sur le lancement en France de la nouvelle balance connectée de la marque, sur BFM Business. Retrouvez l'émission du lundi au jeudi et réécoutez-la en podcast.

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
EU Market Open: Europe primed for a quiet open as Crude pulls back from recent highs

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 4, 2026 2:16


US President Trump said they have been hitting Iran pretty hard and Iran negotiations are going well, while he suggested a deal could happen over the weekend. Though noted that it could go another two or three weeks, Brent Aug'26 -0.7%.Talks between Iran and the US were reportedly still ongoing, and no final decision had been made, according to Fars, citing a member of Tehran's negotiating team.An Iranian negotiating delegation media team member outlined a four-stage proposal for a deal with the US. 1) Ending the war, 2) tangible measures re. the Strait, 3) sanctions and nuclear issues, 4) the establishment of a supervisory committee.APAC stocks traded lower following a negative handover from the US; European bourses are indicative of a softer open.G10s are mostly slightly firmer against the USD; JPY gains slightly on reports that the BoJ is to mull a hike this month, with another possible this year.Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF (May), Swiss CPI (May), EU Retail Sales (Apr), US Challenger Layoffs (May), Jobless Claims (May/30), Revelio PLS (May), and Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators Final (May). Supply from Spain & France. Earnings from Docusign, lululemon & Ciena.Speakers include BoE's Bailey, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Daly, Bowman & Barkin.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
EU Market Open: Europe primed for lower open with crude firming as US and Iran continue to exchange fire

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 28, 2026 2:28


A US official said the US military carried out new strikes on an Iranian military site and shot down multiple Iranian drones that posed a threat to US forces and commercial maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.IRGC said it targeted a US air base in response to the US aggression near Bandar Abbas Airport, while it added that any further US attacks would trigger a more decisive response.Air raid sirens sounded in Kuwait, and the Kuwaiti Army said air defences were intercepting hostile missiles and drone attacks, according to Al Hadath.US President Trump said he was not discussing easing sanctions on Iran and would keep control of Iran's money until it behaves, while adding he was uncomfortable with Russia or China taking Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpileCrude futures edged higher after reports of explosions in Iran's Bandar Abbas; 10yr UST futures continued their slide amid a rebound in oil.APAC stocks were pressured amid a flare-up of geopolitical tensions; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.2%.Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish Retail Sales (Apr), EU Consumer Confidence Final (May), US Initial Jobless Claims (May/23), US GDP 2nd Estimate (Q1), US Core PCE (Apr), US Durable Goods Orders (Apr), US Real Consumer Spending 2nd Estimate (Q1), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), ECB Minutes (Apr), SARB Policy Announcement (May). Speakers include Fed's Williams & Barkin, BoE's Breeden, ECB's Lane, Lagarde, Cipollone, Schnabel & SNB's Schlegel. Supply from the UK, Italy & US, Earnings from Dell.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
EU Market Open: Europe set for a positive open as US said to approve some NVIDIA H200 sales to China; eyes on UK politics

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 14, 2026 3:15


US President Trump told Chinese President Xi that they've had a fantastic relationship and they are going to have a fantastic future together.Chinese President Xi told US President Trump it is a pleasure to meet him in Beijing, while he has always believed that the common interests between China and the US outweigh the differences.US Secretary of State Rubio said the US hopes to convince China to play a more active role in persuading Iran to back down on its actions in the Gulf.An Iranian NSC spokesperson said new confrontations with the US are possible, and they are preparing a law regarding navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.APAC stocks traded mixed; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.7%.Looking ahead, highlights include Trump-Xi Summit (14th-15th May); UK GDP (Mar/Q1), Industrial Production (Mar), Spanish HICP Final (Apr), US Retail Sales (Apr), Export/Import Prices (Apr), Jobless Claims (May 9), Atlanta Fed GDP. Speakers include ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Pill, Fed's Logan, Schmid, Hammack & Williams. Earnings from Telefonica, Burberry & National Grid.Holiday: Ascension Day Holiday (Closures in Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark).Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

De vive(s) voix
«Des hommes endormis», une pièce sur les relations de couple mise en scène par Ludovic Lagarde

De vive(s) voix

Play Episode Listen Later May 14, 2026 29:00


Le metteur en scène Ludovic Lagarde met en scène le texte du dramaturge Martin Crimp Des hommes endormis. Une pièce à voir à l'Athénée jusqu'au 24 mai.  Amour, boulot, pouvoir, désir : deux couples tâtonnent, tentent de faire le point, pour se dire… ou ne pas se dire des choses, le temps d'une nuit, une nuit propice à la parole et à la divagation.  Le texte de Crimp est fait de conversations, un peu hachées, un peu fragmentaires, où l'exploration du thème de la violence n'est jamais loin. La pièce démarre à deux heures du matin : Paul, qui crée de la danse, et Julia, critique d'art contemporain. Ce couple de quinquagénaires sans enfants mais qui a réussi socialement s'interroge sur son avenir quand surviennent Joséphine – assistante de Julia – et Tilman, jeune couple, futurs parents, invités par Julia. Invités : Ludovic Lagarde, metteur en scène. Il a mis en scène de nombreux auteurs du répertoire – Shakespeare, Tchékhov, Brecht –, mais aussi des auteurs plus contemporains tels que Samuel Beckett, Harold Pinter, Sarah Kane ou encore Olivier Cadiot avec lequel il a beaucoup collaboré. Il met en scène Des hommes endormis.  Laurent Poitrenaux, comédien. Il travaille avec Ludovic Lagarde depuis près de 40 ans. Il joue le rôle de Paul dans la pièce.  Le texte Des hommes endormis a été écrit par Martin Crimp, un auteur britannnique contemporain né en 1956. Dans ses textes, il aborde, avec un humour grinçant, la question de la violence. Il est l'un des auteurs de théâtre vivants parmi les plus importants. La pièce Des hommes endormis a été créé en 2018 pour la troupe du Deutsche Schauspielhaus à Hambourg. Le texte a été traduit en français par Alice Zeniter, qui a consacré sa thèse à l'auteur britannique et publié aux éditions de l'Arche.  À voir au Théâtre de l'Athénée-Louis Jouvet jusqu'au 24 mai.  Programmation musicale : L'artiste Ofé et son titre Je sais que tu m'aimes.

De vive(s) voix
«Des hommes endormis», une pièce sur les relations de couple mise en scène par Ludovic Lagarde

De vive(s) voix

Play Episode Listen Later May 14, 2026 29:00


Le metteur en scène Ludovic Lagarde met en scène le texte du dramaturge Martin Crimp Des hommes endormis. Une pièce à voir à l'Athénée jusqu'au 24 mai.  Amour, boulot, pouvoir, désir : deux couples tâtonnent, tentent de faire le point, pour se dire… ou ne pas se dire des choses, le temps d'une nuit, une nuit propice à la parole et à la divagation.  Le texte de Crimp est fait de conversations, un peu hachées, un peu fragmentaires, où l'exploration du thème de la violence n'est jamais loin. La pièce démarre à deux heures du matin : Paul, qui crée de la danse, et Julia, critique d'art contemporain. Ce couple de quinquagénaires sans enfants mais qui a réussi socialement s'interroge sur son avenir quand surviennent Joséphine – assistante de Julia – et Tilman, jeune couple, futurs parents, invités par Julia. Invités : Ludovic Lagarde, metteur en scène. Il a mis en scène de nombreux auteurs du répertoire – Shakespeare, Tchékhov, Brecht –, mais aussi des auteurs plus contemporains tels que Samuel Beckett, Harold Pinter, Sarah Kane ou encore Olivier Cadiot avec lequel il a beaucoup collaboré. Il met en scène Des hommes endormis.  Laurent Poitrenaux, comédien. Il travaille avec Ludovic Lagarde depuis près de 40 ans. Il joue le rôle de Paul dans la pièce.  Le texte Des hommes endormis a été écrit par Martin Crimp, un auteur britannnique contemporain né en 1956. Dans ses textes, il aborde, avec un humour grinçant, la question de la violence. Il est l'un des auteurs de théâtre vivants parmi les plus importants. La pièce Des hommes endormis a été créé en 2018 pour la troupe du Deutsche Schauspielhaus à Hambourg. Le texte a été traduit en français par Alice Zeniter, qui a consacré sa thèse à l'auteur britannique et publié aux éditions de l'Arche.  À voir au Théâtre de l'Athénée-Louis Jouvet jusqu'au 24 mai.  Programmation musicale : L'artiste Ofé et son titre Je sais que tu m'aimes.

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
EU Market Open: Stocks primed for modestly firmer open, crude a touch lower ahead of US/China talks

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 13, 2026 2:10


US President Trump said they are only going to make a good deal regarding Iran and will have a long talk with Chinese President Xi about the Iran war.Iran will not enter the second round of talks with the US without fulfilling five confidence-building conditions, local media reported.US President Trump posted that NVIDIA CEO Huang is on Air Force One along with a number of CEOs of large US companies.UK government whips believe Wes Streeting will make his move on Thursday to avoid clashing with the King's Speech.APAC stocks traded mixed; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.8%.Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish Inflation Final (Apr), French Inflation Final (Apr), EZ Employment Change (Q1), Industrial Production (Mar), GDP 2nd Estimate (Q1), US PPI (Apr), BoC Minutes (Apr), Riksbank Minutes (May), IEA OMR (May), OPEC MOMR (May). Speakers include BoE's Mann, Fed's Collins & Kashkari, ECB's Lane & Lagarde. Supply from Australia, Italy, Germany & US. Earnings from Cisco Systems, Alibaba, Siemens, Deutsche Telekom, Allianz, E.ON, Merck & RWE.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: Equities broadly in the green with US/China summit looming; GBP continues lower as domestic politics dominates

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 13, 2026 2:29


US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Vice Premier He held talks. Following the conclusion, Chinese state media reported that China and the US held candid, in-depth and constructive exchanges.European bourses rebounded from Tuesday's selloff, DAX 40 outperform following a heavy earnings docket; US equity futures gain.GBP mixed against its peers as Starmer appears on a firmer footing but risks remain into on the return of Parliament.Global fixed benchmarks are flat/incrementally firmer, Gilts find reprieve after recent pressure.Crude lower but off lows after taking a breather overnight; IEA said world oil supply to fall by 3.9mln bpd in 2026. Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI (Apr), BoC Minutes (Apr), OPEC MOMR (May). Speakers include BoE's Mann, Fed's Collins & Kashkari, ECB's Lane & Lagarde. Supply from the US. Earnings from Cisco Systems.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Culture en direct
Critique théâtre : "Des hommes endormis" de Ludovic Lagarde ; une pièce aussi étrange que déstabilisante

Culture en direct

Play Episode Listen Later May 11, 2026 16:24


durée : 00:16:24 - Les émissions culturelles de France Culture - par : Marie Labory - Le texte "Des hommes endormis" de Martin Crimp prend vie sur la scène du Théâtre de l'Athénée – Louis Jouvet dans une traduction d'Alice Zeniter, mis en scène par Ludovic Lagarde pour quatre interprètes. - réalisation : Laurence Malonda, Boris Pineau, Aïssatou N'Doye, Jules Barbier, Zohra Vignais, Lise Ripoche, Mathi Adjinsoff - invités : Marie Sorbier Productrice du "Point Culture" sur France Culture, et rédactrice en chef de I/O, Philippe Chevilley Chef du service culture des Echos Vous aimez ce podcast ? Pour écouter tous les épisodes sans limite, rendez-vous sur Radio France

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
EU Market Open: Europe primed to open a touch lower as it digests Monday's geopolitics; RBA hikes in 8-1 vote, AUD weaker

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 5, 2026 2:04


US President Trump said the war could go on for another two to three weeks; time is not of the essence.US officials say the military is closer to resuming combat operations than 24 hours ago, Fox reported.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted, "As talks are making progress with Pakistan's gracious effort, the US should be wary of being dragged back into a quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE."RBA announcement saw a near-unanimous vote to hike the Cash Rate, coupled with the net hawkish statement, which highlighted inflation concerns from the ongoing Iranian war.European equity futures point to a lower open, with the Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.2% after cash markets fell 2.2% on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss Inflation (Apr), US Building Permits Final (Mar), Canadian Balance of Trade (Mar), Canadian PMI (Apr), US PMI Final (Apr), US ISM Services (Apr), US JOLTS (Mar), US New Home Sales (Mar), US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism (May), New Zealand Unemployment Rate (Q1). Speakers include RBA's Bullock, ECB's Lagarde, Lane, Fed's Bowman, Barr. Supply from Germany. Earnings from AMD, AMC, Strategy, Tempus AI, Shopify, PayPal, Pfizer, HSBC, Leonardo, and Infineon.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: US equity futures gain, DXY flat whilst the AUD lags post-RBA; US ISM Services ahead

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 5, 2026 2:26


US President Trump said the war could go on for another two to three weeks; time is not of the essence.US officials say the military is closer to resuming combat operations than 24 hours ago, Fox reported.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted, "As talks are making progress with Pakistan's gracious effort, the US should be wary of being dragged back into a quagmire by ill-wishers. So should the UAE."European and US equity futures are broadly firmer; Palantir -2% as commercial revenue fell short of expectations.DXY is flat, JPY experiences volatile two-way action, AUD pressured post-RBA, where it hiked by 25bps, statement was net-hawkish, but Governor Bullock suggests there is room now to wait and see.Gilts gap lower on return from a Bank Holiday, USTs and Bunds relatively contained.Crude pares Monday's gains, to the benefit of XAU.Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits Final (Mar), Canadian Balance of Trade (Mar), Canadian PMI (Apr), US PMI Final (Apr), US ISM Services (Apr), US JOLTS (Mar), US New Home Sales (Mar), US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism (May), New Zealand Unemployment Rate (Q1). Speakers include ECB's Lagarde, Lane, Fed's Bowman, Barr. Supply from Germany. Earnings from AMD, AMC, Strategy, Tempus AI, Shopify, PayPal, Pfizer.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The ECB Podcast
President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 30 April 2026

The ECB Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 30, 2026 15:51


Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today's decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 30 April 2026. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 30 April 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2026/html/mopo_statement_explained_april.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 30 April 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2026/html/ecb.is260430~f99cb123a8.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 30 April 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260430~81b7179e6f.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 30 April 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds260430~1c397fa90c.en.pdf European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

Le 13/14
Amandine Lagarde directrice générale de l'association France Parkinson etLucie Bourdeu, réalisatrice

Le 13/14

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 29, 2026 15:48


durée : 00:15:48 - Le 13/14 - par : Jérôme Cadet - Comment parler d'une maladie grave ? Nous sommes en plein mois de mobilisation contre la maladie de Parkinson. Et depuis quelques jours, l'association France Parkinson diffuse une campagne pour sensibiliser le grand public et appeler aux dons. - réalisation : Cecilia Arbona, Camille Poux-Jalaguier Vous aimez ce podcast ? Pour écouter tous les épisodes sans limite, rendez-vous sur Radio France

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: US equity futures gain despite firmer energy benchmarks; Tesla, ServiceNow, IBM ahead

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 22, 2026 2:17


US President Trump said the US have been asked to hold their attack on Iran until such time as its leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal.It was reported that Iran received 'some sign' the US is ready to break the blockade, spurring mild risk-on at the time.UKMTO reported two separate incidents near Oman and Iran, with the latter spurring upticks in the crude complex.European bourses opened higher but have since trundled lower, ASM International +8% after a strong Q1 and guidance; US equity futures gain.USD tracks oil prices, NZD repricing continues and Sterling unreactive to mostly in-line inflation data.Fixed income follows energy but is relatively contained thus far, Gilts marginally underperform.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Consumer Confidence (Apr), CBRT Policy Announcement (Apr). Speakers include ECB's Lagarde & Cipollone. Supply from US. Earnings from Vertiv, Boeing, GE Vernova, AT&T, Tesla, ServiceNow, IBM.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
EU Market Open: Stocks bid, Crude and USD slip following constructive geopolitical headlines

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 22, 2026 3:29


US President Trump said the US have been asked to hold their attack on Iran until such time as its leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal.More recently, it was reported that Iran received 'some sign' the US is ready to break the blockade – a rise in sentiment was seen.UKMTO said it received information about an incident 15 nautical miles to the northeast of Oman in which a container vessel was approached by a single IRGC gunboat.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.9% on Tuesday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Inflation (Mar), South African Inflation (Mar), EZ Consumer Confidence (Apr), CBRT Policy Announcement (Apr), Bank of Indonesia Policy Announcement (Apr). Speakers include BoE's Breeden, ECB's Lagarde, Elderson, Lane & Cipollone. Supply from Germany & US. Earnings from Vertiv, Boeing, GE Vernova, AT&T, Tesla, ServiceNow, IBM, L'Oreal, Danone, Accor & Akzo Nobel.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
EU Market Open: Oil stabilises at $95/bbl, ASML posts top and bottom line beat, Q2 revenue guide underwhelms

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 15, 2026 2:25


US President Trump said he views the war as being very close to over, according to Fox.US President Trump said he isn't thinking about extending the ceasefire and doesn't think it will be necessary, according to reports citing an ABC reporter on X.US Vice President JD Vance said they are negotiating with Iran and the ceasefire is holding, while he also stated Iranian negotiators wanted to make a deal, and he feels good about where they are.US President Trump's full interview on Fox Business will be aired on April 15th at 06:00EDT/11:00BST.APAC stocks were mostly higher; European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1%Looking ahead, highlights include French HICP Final (Mar), EZ Industrial Production (Feb), US Export/Import Prices (Mar), Fed Beige Book (Apr). Speakers include Fed's Barr & Bowman, ECB's Lagarde, Cipollone & Schnabel, BoE's Bailey, SNB's Schlegel, RBA's Hauser & RBNZ's Breman. Supply from Germany. Earnings from Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Hermes.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: FX contained, stocks mixed and Brent crude stays around $95/bbl in heavy newsflow

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 15, 2026 1:50


AP reported that effort to extend the US-Iran ceasefire has made progress with mediators aiming to extend for at least another two weeks. Both sides gave an “in principle agreement” to extend the ceasefire.The Pentagon is sending thousands of additional troops into the Middle East in the coming days, WaPo reported citing US officials. This move aims to pressure Iran while the US mulls the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations if the ceasefire breaks.European bourses mixed, Luxury suffers on KER FP and RMS FP while ASML raises FY guidance; US equity futures flat with Morgan Stanley and BofA ahead. DXY muted, GBP/USD retreats from 1.36 with UK GDP later in the week.Global fixed benchmarks trade cautiously awaiting President Trump and central bank speakers.Commodities tread water in anticipation of a second US-Iran meeting.Looking ahead, highlights include US Export/Import Prices (Mar), Fed Beige Book (Apr). Speakers include US President Trump, Fed's Barr, Hammack & Bowman, ECB's Lagarde, Cipollone, Nagel & Schnabel, BoE's Bailey, Greene, SNB's Schlegel, RBA's Hauser & RBNZ's Breman. Earnings from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
EU Market Open: Oil back below USD 100/bbl as reporting suggests US and Iran eyeing talks

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 14, 2026 3:10


The US is reportedly eyeing a potential second round of in-person talks with Iran as the blockade takes hold, according to CNN.AP reported that the US and Iran could be headed toward a second round of talks, which could happen on Thursday.US VP Vance said we made some progress in Iran talks, and he wouldn't say things went wrong, while he added Iranians moved in our direction in talks, but not far enough.A US official said there is “continued engagement” with Iran and forward motion on trying to get to an agreement, while a senior US official also said talks between the US and Iran are continuing even now and there is progress in trying to reach an agreement, according to Axios.An IRGC spokesperson said that if the war continues, they will unveil capabilities that the enemy has no idea about, according to SNN.APAC stocks traded higher as risk sentiment was underpinned by hopes regarding US-Iran peace talks; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4%.Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF Final (Mar), German Wholesale Prices (Mar), Spanish HICP Final (Mar), US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Mar), ADP Weekly Change, PPI (Mar), South Korean Export/Import Prices (Mar), IEA OMR (Apr), IMF World Economic Outlook Press Briefing (Apr). Speakers include BoE's Mann, Bailey & Greene, ECB's Lane, Cipollone & Lagarde, RBNZ's Breman, Fed's Goolsbee, Barr, Paulson, Collins & Barkin, Supply from the Netherlands & Germany. Earnings from JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Citi, J&J, Wells Fargo, BMW & Kering.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: Equities see modest gains with Crude under $100/bbl on second round negotiation hopes

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 14, 2026 3:41


Next round of talks between US and Iran could take place this week or early next week, according to the Iranian embassy official in Pakistan.US VP Vance said we made some progress in Iran talks, and he wouldn't say things went wrong, while he added Iranians moved in our direction in talks, but not far enough.A US official said there is “continued engagement” with Iran and forward motion on trying to get to an agreement, while a senior US official also said talks between the US and Iran are continuing even now and there is progress in trying to reach an agreement, according to Axios.Energy eases amid continued reports of further US-Iran talks.Global equities gain on positive risk tone; US banks ahead.DXY soften, Kiwi continues to outperform while JPY helped modestly by reports BoJ is to increase price forecast.Fixed benchmarks gain, heavy speaker slate ahead. Looking ahead, highlights include US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Mar), ADP Weekly Change, PPI (Mar), South Korean Export/Import Prices (Mar), IMF World Economic Outlook Press Briefing (Apr). Speakers include BoE's Bailey & Greene, ECB's Lane, Cipollone & Lagarde, RBNZ's Breman, Fed's Goolsbee, Barr, Paulson, Collins & Barkin, Earnings from JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Citi, J&J, Wells Fargo & Kering.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen
HIGHLIGHTS: Christine Lagarde - President of the European Central Bank

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 27, 2026 10:24


We've curated a special 10-minute version of the podcast for those in a hurry. Here you can listen to the full episode: https://podcasts.apple.com/no/podcast/christine-lagarde-central-bank-independence-geopolitical/id1614211565?i=1000756916046&l=nbNicolai Tangen sits down with Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, for a wide-ranging conversation on the forces reshaping the global economy. They discuss geopolitical fragmentation, the impact of US policy shifts on Europe, energy vulnerability, the green transition, and the future of Europe's social democratic model. Lagarde also reflects on the ECB's mandate amid rising complexity and what it means to lead with clarity in uncertain times. Tune in for an insightful conversation!In Good Company is hosted by Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management. New full episodes every Wednesday, and don't miss our Highlight episodes every Friday. The production team for this episode includes Isabelle Karlsson and PLAN-B's Niklas Figenschau Johansen and Sebastian Langvik-Hansen. Background research was conducted by Une Solheim. Watch the episode on YouTube: Norges Bank Investment Management - YouTubeWant to learn more about the fund? The fund | Norges Bank Investment Management (nbim.no)Follow Nicolai Tangen on LinkedIn: Nicolai Tangen | LinkedInFollow NBIM on LinkedIn: Norges Bank Investment Management: Administrator for bedriftsside | LinkedInFollow NBIM on Instagram: Explore Norges Bank Investment Management on Instagram Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen
Christine Lagarde: Central Bank Independence, Geopolitical Fragmentation and What It Takes to Lead the ECB

In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 24, 2026 42:24


Nicolai Tangen sits down with Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, for a wide-ranging conversation on the forces reshaping the global economy. They discuss geopolitical fragmentation, the impact of US policy shifts on Europe, energy vulnerability, the green transition, and the future of Europe's social democratic model. Lagarde also reflects on the ECB's mandate amid rising complexity and what it means to lead with clarity in uncertain times. Tune in for an insightful conversation!In Good Company is hosted by Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management. New full episodes every Wednesday, and don't miss our Highlight episodes every Friday. The production team for this episode includes Isabelle Karlsson and PLAN-B's Niklas Figenschau Johansen and Sebastian Langvik-Hansen. Background research was conducted by Une Solheim. Watch the episode on YouTube: Norges Bank Investment Management - YouTubeWant to learn more about the fund? The fund | Norges Bank Investment Management (nbim.no)Follow Nicolai Tangen on LinkedIn: Nicolai Tangen | LinkedInFollow NBIM on LinkedIn: Norges Bank Investment Management: Administrator for bedriftsside | LinkedInFollow NBIM on Instagram: Explore Norges Bank Investment Management on Instagram Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The ECB Podcast
President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 19 March 2026

The ECB Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 19, 2026 17:05


Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today's decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 19 March 2026. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 19 March 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2026/html/mopo_statement_explained_march.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 19 March 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2026/html/ecb.is260319~93b1cbad97.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 19 March 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260319~3057739775.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 19 March 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds260319~30247d385d.en.pdf Macroeconomic projections, 19 March 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/ecb.projections202603_eurosystemstaff~da4f97a747.en.html European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

Reuters World News
Lagarde, avalanche, nuclear and peace talk

Reuters World News

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 18, 2026 12:25


An avalanche in California has left up to 10 skiers missing and six stranded. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is reportedly planning to leave her job early to allow French President Emmanuel Macron to help find a successor. U.S. envoys juggle near-simultaneous crisis talks on Iran and Ukraine in Geneva. Plus, actor Shia LaBeouf is arrested at Mardi Gras in New Orleans. Find our recommended read ⁠here⁠. Listen to On Assignment here. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast ⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠. Sign up for the Reuters Econ World newsletter ⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠. Listen to the Reuters Econ World podcast ⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠. Visit the ⁠Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement⁠ for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit ⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠ to opt out of targeted advertising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Thoughts on the Market
Mapping Global Central Bank Paths

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 22, 2026 12:36


Our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter joins our chief regional economists to discuss the outlook for interest rates in the U.S., Japan and Europe.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And today we're kicking off our quarterly economic roundtable for the year. We're going to try to think about everything that matters in economics around the world. And today we're going to focus a little bit more on central banking. And when we get to tomorrow, we'll focus on the nuts and bolts of the real side of the economy. I'm joined by our chief regional economists. Michael Gapen: Hi, Seth. I'm Mike Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley. Chetan Ahya: I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia economist. Jens Eisenschmidt: And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe economist. Seth Carpenter: It's Thursday, January 22nd at 10 am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4 pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 9 pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: So, Mike Gapen, let me start with you as we head into 2026, what are we thinking about? Are we going into a more stable expansion? Is this just a different phase with the same amount of volatility? What do you think is going to be happening in the U.S. as a baseline outlook? And then if we're going to be wrong, which direction would we be wrong? Michael Gapen: Yeah, Seth, we took the view that we would have more policy certainty. Recent weeks have maybe suggested we're incorrect on that front. But I still believe that when it comes to deregulation, immigration policy and fiscal policy, we have much more clarity there than we did a year ago. So, I think it's another year of modest growth, above trend growth. We're forecasting something around 2.4 percent for 2026. That's about where we finished 2025. I think what's key for markets and the outlook overall will be whether inflation comes down. Firms are still passing through tariffs to the consumer. We think that'll happen at least through the end of the first quarter. It's our view that after that, inflation pressures will start to diminish. If that's the case, then we think the Fed can execute one or two more rate cuts. But we have those coming [in] the second half of the year. So, it looks like growth is strong enough. The labor market has stabilized enough for the Fed to wait and see, to look around, see the effects of their prior rate cuts, and then push policy closer to neutral if inflation comes down. Seth Carpenter: And if we go back to last year to 2025, I will give you the credit first. Morgan Stanley did not shift its forecast for recession in the U.S. the way some of our main competitors did. On the other hand, and this is where I maybe tweak you just a little bit. We underestimated how much growth there would be in the United States. CapEx spending from AI firms was strong. Consumer spending, especially from the top half of the income distribution in the U.S. was strong. Growth overall for the year was over 2 percent, close to 2.5 percent. So, if that's what we just came off of, why isn't it the case that we'd see even stronger growth? Maybe even a re-acceleration of growth in 2026? Michael Gapen: Well, some of that, say, improvement vis-à-vis our forecast, the outperformance. Some of that I think comes mechanically from trade and inventory variability. So, . I'm not sure that that says a lot about an improving trend rate of growth. Where there was other outperformance was, as you noted, from the consumer. Now our models, and I don't mean to get too technical here, but our model suggests that consumption is overshooting its fundamentals. Which I think makes it harder for the economy to accelerate further. And then AI; it's harder for AI spending to say get incrementally stronger than where it is. So, we're getting a little extra boost from fiscal. We've got that coming through. And I just think what it is, is more of the same rather than further acceleration from here. Seth Carpenter: Do you think there's a chance that the Fed in fact does not cut rates like you have in your forecast? Michael Gapen: Yes, I do think... Where we could be wrong is we've made assumptions around the One Big Beautiful Bill and what it will contribute to the economy. But as you know, there's a lot of variability around those estimates. If the bill is more catalytic to animal spirits and business spending than we've assumed, you could get, say, a demand driven animal spirits upside to the economy, which may mean inflation doesn't decelerate all that much. But I do think that that's, say, the main upside risk that we're considering. Markets have been gradually taking out probabilities of Fed cuts as growth has come in stronger. So far, the inflation data has been positive in terms of signaling about disinflation, but I would say the jury's still out on how much that continues. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, When I think about Japan, we know that it's been the developed market central bank that's been going in the opposite direction. They've been hiking when other central banks have been cutting. We got some news recently that probably put some risk into our baseline outlook that we published in our year ahead view about both growth and inflation in Japan. And with it what the Bank of Japan is going to do in terms of its normalization. Can you just walk us through a little bit about our outlook for Japan? Because right now I think that the yen, Japanese rates, they're all part of the ongoing market narrative around the world. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, look, I mean, on a big picture basis, we are constructive on the Japan macro-outlook. We think normal GDP growth remains strong. We are expecting to see the transition for the consumers from them seeing, you know, supply side inflation. Keeping their real wage growth low to a dynamic where we transition to real wage growth accelerating. That supports real consumption growth, and we move away from that supply side driven inflation to demand side driven inflation. So broadly we are constructive, but I think in the backdrop, what we are seeing on currency depreciation is making things a bit more challenging for the BOJ. While we are expecting that demand side pressure to build up and drive inflation, in the trailing data, it is still pretty much currency depreciation and supply side factors like food inflation driving inflation. And so, BOJ has been hesitant. So, while we had the expectation that BOJ will hike in January of 2027, we do see the risk that they may have to take up rate hike earlier to manage the currency not getting out of hand and adding on to the inflation pressures. Seth Carpenter Would I be right in saying that up until now, the yen has swung pretty widely in both directions. But the weakening of the yen until now hasn't been really the key driver of the Bank of Japan's policy reaction. It's been growth picking up, inflation picking up, wanting to get out of negative interest rates first, wanting to get away from the zero lower bounds. Second, the weaker yen in some sense could have actually been seen as a positive up until now because Japan did go through 25 years of essentially stagnant nominal growth. Is this actually that much of a fundamental change in the Bank of Japan's thinking – needing to react to the weakness of the yen? Chetan Ahya: Broadly what you're saying is right, Seth, but there is also a threshold of where the currency can be. And beyond a point, it begins to hurt the households in form of imported inflation pressures. And remember that inflation has been somewhat high, even if it is driven by currency depreciation and supply side factors for some time. And so, BOJ has to be watchful of potential lift in inflation expectations for the households. And at the same time, they are also watching the underlying inflation impact of this currency depreciation – because what we have seen is that over period workers have been demanding for higher wages. And that is also influenced by what happens to headline inflation, which is driven by currency depreciation. So, I would say that, yes, it's been true up until now. But, when currency reaches these very high levels of range, you are going to see BOJ having to act. Seth Carpenter: Jens, let's shift then to Europe. The ECB had been on a cutting cycle. They came to the end of that. President Lagarde said that she thought the disinflationary process had ended. In your year ahead forecast and a bunch of your writing recently, you've said maybe not so fast. There could still be some more disinflationary, at least risk, in the pipeline for Europe. Can you talk a little bit about what's going on in terms of European inflation and what it could mean for the European Central Bank? Because clearly that's going to be first order important for markets.Jens Eisenschmidt: I think that is right. I think we have a crucial inflation print ahead of us that comes out on the 4th of February. So, early February we get some signal, whether our anticipated fall of headline inflation here below the ECB's target is actually materializing. We think the chances for this are pretty good. There's a mix why this is happening. One is energy. Energy disinflation and base effects. But the other thing is services inflation resets always at the beginning of the year. January and February are the crucial month here. We had significant services upward pressure on prices the last years. And so just from base effects, we think we will see less of that. Another picture or another element of that picture is that wage disinflation is proceeding nicely. We have notably a significant weakness in the export-oriented manufacturing sector in Germany, which is a key sector of setting wages for the country. The country is around 30 percent of the euro area GDP. And here we had seen significant wage gains over the last year. So, the disinflationary trend coming from lower wage gains from this country, that will be very important. And an important signal to watch. Again, that's something we don't know. I think soon we have to watch simply monthly prints here. But a significant print for the first quarter comes out in May, and all of that together makes us believe that the ECB will be in a position to see enough data or have seen enough data that confirms the thesis of inflation staying below target for some time to come. So that they can cut in June and September to a terminal rate of 1.5 percent. Seth Carpenter: That is, I would say, out of consensus relative where the market is. When you talk to investors, whether they're in Europe or around the world, what's the big pushback that you get from them when you are explaining your view on how the ECB is going to act? Jens Eisenschmidt: There are two essential pushbacks. So, one is on substance. So, 'No, actually wages will not come down, and the economy will actually start overheating soon because of the big fiscal stimulus.' That, in a nutshell is the pushback on substance. I would say here, as you would say before, not so fast. Because the fiscal stimulus is only in one country. It's 30 percent. But only 30 percent of the euro area.Plus, there is another pushback, which is on the reaction function of the ECB. Here we tend to agree. So far, we have heard from policy makers that they feel rather comfortable with the 2 percent rate level that they're at. But we think that discussion will change. The moment you are below target in an actual inflation print; the burden of proof is the opposite. Now you have to prove: Is the economy really on a track that inflation will get back up to target without further monetary stimulus? We believe that will be the key debate. And again, happy to, sort of, concede that there is for now not a lot of signaling out of the ECB that further rate cuts are coming. But we believe the first inflation print of the year will change that debate significantly. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so that makes a lot of sense. However, looking at the clock, we are probably out of time for today. So, for now, Michael, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And to the listener, thanks for listening. And be sure to tune in tomorrow for part two of our conversation. And I have to say, if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Thoughts on the Market
Special Encore: 2026 Global Outlook: Slower Growth and Inflation

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 24, 2025 10:53


Original Release Date: November 17, 2025In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: Today, we'll focus on [the] all-important macroeconomic backdrop. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.