Podcasts about Lagarde

Our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter joins our chief regional economists to discuss the outlook for interest rates in the U.S., Japan and Europe.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And today we're kicking off our quarterly economic roundtable for the year. We're going to try to think about everything that matters in economics around the world. And today we're going to focus a little bit more on central banking. And when we get to tomorrow, we'll focus on the nuts and bolts of the real side of the economy. I'm joined by our chief regional economists. Michael Gapen: Hi, Seth. I'm Mike Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley. Chetan Ahya: I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia economist. Jens Eisenschmidt: And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe economist. Seth Carpenter: It's Thursday, January 22nd at 10 am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4 pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 9 pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: So, Mike Gapen, let me start with you as we head into 2026, what are we thinking about? Are we going into a more stable expansion? Is this just a different phase with the same amount of volatility? What do you think is going to be happening in the U.S. as a baseline outlook? And then if we're going to be wrong, which direction would we be wrong? Michael Gapen: Yeah, Seth, we took the view that we would have more policy certainty. Recent weeks have maybe suggested we're incorrect on that front. But I still believe that when it comes to deregulation, immigration policy and fiscal policy, we have much more clarity there than we did a year ago. So, I think it's another year of modest growth, above trend growth. We're forecasting something around 2.4 percent for 2026. That's about where we finished 2025. I think what's key for markets and the outlook overall will be whether inflation comes down. Firms are still passing through tariffs to the consumer. We think that'll happen at least through the end of the first quarter. It's our view that after that, inflation pressures will start to diminish. If that's the case, then we think the Fed can execute one or two more rate cuts. But we have those coming [in] the second half of the year. So, it looks like growth is strong enough. The labor market has stabilized enough for the Fed to wait and see, to look around, see the effects of their prior rate cuts, and then push policy closer to neutral if inflation comes down. Seth Carpenter: And if we go back to last year to 2025, I will give you the credit first. Morgan Stanley did not shift its forecast for recession in the U.S. the way some of our main competitors did. On the other hand, and this is where I maybe tweak you just a little bit. We underestimated how much growth there would be in the United States. CapEx spending from AI firms was strong. Consumer spending, especially from the top half of the income distribution in the U.S. was strong. Growth overall for the year was over 2 percent, close to 2.5 percent. So, if that's what we just came off of, why isn't it the case that we'd see even stronger growth? Maybe even a re-acceleration of growth in 2026? Michael Gapen: Well, some of that, say, improvement vis-à-vis our forecast, the outperformance. Some of that I think comes mechanically from trade and inventory variability. So, . I'm not sure that that says a lot about an improving trend rate of growth. Where there was other outperformance was, as you noted, from the consumer. Now our models, and I don't mean to get too technical here, but our model suggests that consumption is overshooting its fundamentals. Which I think makes it harder for the economy to accelerate further. And then AI; it's harder for AI spending to say get incrementally stronger than where it is. So, we're getting a little extra boost from fiscal. We've got that coming through. And I just think what it is, is more of the same rather than further acceleration from here. Seth Carpenter: Do you think there's a chance that the Fed in fact does not cut rates like you have in your forecast? Michael Gapen: Yes, I do think... Where we could be wrong is we've made assumptions around the One Big Beautiful Bill and what it will contribute to the economy. But as you know, there's a lot of variability around those estimates. If the bill is more catalytic to animal spirits and business spending than we've assumed, you could get, say, a demand driven animal spirits upside to the economy, which may mean inflation doesn't decelerate all that much. But I do think that that's, say, the main upside risk that we're considering. Markets have been gradually taking out probabilities of Fed cuts as growth has come in stronger. So far, the inflation data has been positive in terms of signaling about disinflation, but I would say the jury's still out on how much that continues. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, When I think about Japan, we know that it's been the developed market central bank that's been going in the opposite direction. They've been hiking when other central banks have been cutting. We got some news recently that probably put some risk into our baseline outlook that we published in our year ahead view about both growth and inflation in Japan. And with it what the Bank of Japan is going to do in terms of its normalization. Can you just walk us through a little bit about our outlook for Japan? Because right now I think that the yen, Japanese rates, they're all part of the ongoing market narrative around the world. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, look, I mean, on a big picture basis, we are constructive on the Japan macro-outlook. We think normal GDP growth remains strong. We are expecting to see the transition for the consumers from them seeing, you know, supply side inflation. Keeping their real wage growth low to a dynamic where we transition to real wage growth accelerating. That supports real consumption growth, and we move away from that supply side driven inflation to demand side driven inflation. So broadly we are constructive, but I think in the backdrop, what we are seeing on currency depreciation is making things a bit more challenging for the BOJ. While we are expecting that demand side pressure to build up and drive inflation, in the trailing data, it is still pretty much currency depreciation and supply side factors like food inflation driving inflation. And so, BOJ has been hesitant. So, while we had the expectation that BOJ will hike in January of 2027, we do see the risk that they may have to take up rate hike earlier to manage the currency not getting out of hand and adding on to the inflation pressures. Seth Carpenter Would I be right in saying that up until now, the yen has swung pretty widely in both directions. But the weakening of the yen until now hasn't been really the key driver of the Bank of Japan's policy reaction. It's been growth picking up, inflation picking up, wanting to get out of negative interest rates first, wanting to get away from the zero lower bounds. Second, the weaker yen in some sense could have actually been seen as a positive up until now because Japan did go through 25 years of essentially stagnant nominal growth. Is this actually that much of a fundamental change in the Bank of Japan's thinking – needing to react to the weakness of the yen? Chetan Ahya: Broadly what you're saying is right, Seth, but there is also a threshold of where the currency can be. And beyond a point, it begins to hurt the households in form of imported inflation pressures. And remember that inflation has been somewhat high, even if it is driven by currency depreciation and supply side factors for some time. And so, BOJ has to be watchful of potential lift in inflation expectations for the households. And at the same time, they are also watching the underlying inflation impact of this currency depreciation – because what we have seen is that over period workers have been demanding for higher wages. And that is also influenced by what happens to headline inflation, which is driven by currency depreciation. So, I would say that, yes, it's been true up until now. But, when currency reaches these very high levels of range, you are going to see BOJ having to act. Seth Carpenter: Jens, let's shift then to Europe. The ECB had been on a cutting cycle. They came to the end of that. President Lagarde said that she thought the disinflationary process had ended. In your year ahead forecast and a bunch of your writing recently, you've said maybe not so fast. There could still be some more disinflationary, at least risk, in the pipeline for Europe. Can you talk a little bit about what's going on in terms of European inflation and what it could mean for the European Central Bank? Because clearly that's going to be first order important for markets.Jens Eisenschmidt: I think that is right. I think we have a crucial inflation print ahead of us that comes out on the 4th of February. So, early February we get some signal, whether our anticipated fall of headline inflation here below the ECB's target is actually materializing. We think the chances for this are pretty good. There's a mix why this is happening. One is energy. Energy disinflation and base effects. But the other thing is services inflation resets always at the beginning of the year. January and February are the crucial month here. We had significant services upward pressure on prices the last years. And so just from base effects, we think we will see less of that. Another picture or another element of that picture is that wage disinflation is proceeding nicely. We have notably a significant weakness in the export-oriented manufacturing sector in Germany, which is a key sector of setting wages for the country. The country is around 30 percent of the euro area GDP. And here we had seen significant wage gains over the last year. So, the disinflationary trend coming from lower wage gains from this country, that will be very important. And an important signal to watch. Again, that's something we don't know. I think soon we have to watch simply monthly prints here. But a significant print for the first quarter comes out in May, and all of that together makes us believe that the ECB will be in a position to see enough data or have seen enough data that confirms the thesis of inflation staying below target for some time to come. So that they can cut in June and September to a terminal rate of 1.5 percent. Seth Carpenter: That is, I would say, out of consensus relative where the market is. When you talk to investors, whether they're in Europe or around the world, what's the big pushback that you get from them when you are explaining your view on how the ECB is going to act? Jens Eisenschmidt: There are two essential pushbacks. So, one is on substance. So, 'No, actually wages will not come down, and the economy will actually start overheating soon because of the big fiscal stimulus.' That, in a nutshell is the pushback on substance. I would say here, as you would say before, not so fast. Because the fiscal stimulus is only in one country. It's 30 percent. But only 30 percent of the euro area.Plus, there is another pushback, which is on the reaction function of the ECB. Here we tend to agree. So far, we have heard from policy makers that they feel rather comfortable with the 2 percent rate level that they're at. But we think that discussion will change. The moment you are below target in an actual inflation print; the burden of proof is the opposite. Now you have to prove: Is the economy really on a track that inflation will get back up to target without further monetary stimulus? We believe that will be the key debate. And again, happy to, sort of, concede that there is for now not a lot of signaling out of the ECB that further rate cuts are coming. But we believe the first inflation print of the year will change that debate significantly. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so that makes a lot of sense. However, looking at the clock, we are probably out of time for today. So, for now, Michael, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And to the listener, thanks for listening. And be sure to tune in tomorrow for part two of our conversation. And I have to say, if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Au Cœur de l'Histoire est un podcast Europe 1.- Ecriture et présentation : Olivier de Lagarde - Production : Clara Leger- Réalisation : Christophe Daviaud et Nicolas Beaudin- Musique originale : Julien Tharaud  - Visuel : Luowen Wang- Diffusion : Clara Ménard Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Inizia l'ottava stagione del BIP SHOW!Partiamo dal messaggio di fine anno di Christine Lagarde e dall'assurda teoria dell'inflazione al 2%.Inoltre: Wallet of Satoshi abbandona l'Europa nella sua versione custodial, ennesimo data breach per Ledger, tutti i numeri del Lightning Network nel 2025, e boom di istallazioni per BitChat in Uganda.It's showtime!

Un'altra puntata in inglese con due ospiti eccezionali: John Cochrane e Hanno Lustig. Parliamo del libro "Crisis Cycle: Challenges, Evolution, and Future of the Euro" di John Cochrane, Luis Garicano e Klaus Masuch, Princeton University Press.Un'unione monetaria senza unione fiscale induce gli Stati membri ad indebitarsi per poi chiedere alla banca centrale un salvataggio stampando moneta. I padri dell'euro pertanto concepirono una Banca centrale europea indipendente, il cui mandato è esclusivamente la stabilità dei prezzi e soggetta al divieto di monetizzare i debiti pubblici.Ma i fondatori trascurarono il fatto che un'unione monetaria senza unione fiscale implica che in circostanze estreme, gli stati membri vanno in default proprio come le aziende. I fondatori dell'euro non potevano dirlo apertamente e quindi non ipotizzarono alcuna disposizione per il default sovrano, né alcun meccanismo di crisi per aiutare i paesi sovrani a scongiurare il default. Alle banche era e continua ad essere consentito trattare il debito sovrano come privo di rischio, incoraggiandone il possesso, ma ciò significa che il default sovrano mette in pericolo le banche. Questo è comprensibile. Nessuno negli anni '90 aveva previsto i problemi del debito pubblico dei paesi avanzati o una crisi finanziaria. Ma oggi il mondo è cambiato. E quindi bisogna fissare nuove regole per rendere l'euro più forte e resiliente. The art work behind Fabio was painted by Antonio AgrestiDiventa un supporter di questo podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/inglorious-globastards-podcast--4600745/support.

Original Release Date: November 17, 2025In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: Today, we'll focus on [the] all-important macroeconomic backdrop. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, le vol de l'argenterie de l'Élysée, l'interview du nouveau Bâtonnier de Paris et le Mercosur.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, retour sur les évènements marquants de 2025, la colère des agriculteursHébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today's decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 18 December 2025. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 18 December 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2025/html/mopo_statement_explained_december.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 18 December 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is251218~3a10402adb.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 18 December 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.mp251218~58b0e415a6.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 18 December 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds251218~f264376788.en.pdf Macroeconomic projections, 18 December 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/projections/html/index.en.html European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

APAC stocks were mostly lower following on from the tech-led selling stateside and ahead of US inflation data and a slew of upcoming central bank decisions.US President Trump's primetime address to the nation made no mention of a US blockade against Venezuela or Russian sanctions.US President Trump said he will soon announce the next Fed chair and that the new Fed chair will believe in lowering interest rates by a lot.US equity futures traded rangebound with little reaction seen following President Trump's primetime address and as participants awaited US CPI data.European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures U/C after the cash market closed with losses of 0.6% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI (Nov), Jobless Claims (w/e 13 Dec), Philly Fed (Dec), Japanese CPI (Nov), NZ Trade Balance (Nov), ECB Announcement, BoE Announcement, Norges Bank Announcement, Riksbank Announcement, CNB Announcement, Banxico Announcement. Speakers include Norges Bank's Bache, Riksbank's Thedeen, ECB's Lagarde & BoE's Bailey, Supply from US, Earnings from Carnival, Nike & FedEx.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he will soon announce the next Fed chair and that the new Fed chair will believe in lowering interest rates by a lot.European bourses are mostly firmer; US equity futures also gain, with mild outperformance in the NQ.DXY is slightly firmer as traders await US CPI; GBP underperforms a touch ahead of the BoE, EUR awaits the ECB.Fixed income grinds higher; Bunds saw some modest downticks after Germany's DFA announced their 2026 issuance plan, which came in slightly above analyst expectations.Crude complex was initially firmer but now hovering just above the unchanged mark, as Trump avoided mentioning Venezuela/Russia in his primetime address.Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI (Nov), Jobless Claims (w/e 13 Dec), Philly Fed (Dec), Japanese CPI (Nov), NZ Trade Balance (Nov), ECB Announcement, BoE Announcement, CNB Announcement, Banxico Announcement. Speakers include ECB's Lagarde & BoE's Bailey, Supply from US, Earnings from Carnival, Nike & FedEx.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, l'interview de François Fillon au Figaro et les 50 ans des albums Panini.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, retour sur l'interview de François Fillon à charge contre le chef de l'Etat. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, le troisième volet de la saga "Avatar" et les patrons qui ne se sentent pas soutenus par la droite. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur responds to some of the feedback from clients on Morgan Stanley's 2026 global outlooks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Today, I consider the pushback we've received on our 2026 outlooks – distilling the themes that drew the most debate and our responses to the debates. It's Tuesday, Dec 16th at 3:30pm in New York. It's been a few weeks [since] we published our 2026 outlooks for the global economy and markets. We've had lots of wide-ranging conversations, much dialogue and debate with our clients across the globe on the key themes that we laid out in our outlook. Feedback has ranged from strong alignment to pointed disagreement, with many nuanced views in between. We welcome this dialogue, especially the pushback, as it forces us to re-examine our assumptions and refine our thinking. Our constructive stance on AI and data center-related CapEx, along with the pivotal role we see for the credit market channels, drew notable scrutiny. Our 2026 CapEx projections was anchored by a strong conviction – that demand for compute will far outstrip the supply over the next several years. We remain confident that credit markets across unsecured, structured, and securitized instruments in both public and private domains will be central to the financing of the next wave of AI-driven investments. The crucial point here is that we think this spending will be relatively insensitive to the macro conditions, i.e., the level of interest rates and economic growth. Regarding the level of AI investment, we received a bit of pushback on our economics forecast: Why don't we forecast even more growth from AI CapEx? From our perspective, that is going to be a multi-year process, so the growth implications also extend over time. Our U.S. credit strategists' forecast for IG bond supply – $2.25 trillion in gross issuance; that's up 25 percent year-over-year, or $1 trillion in net issuance; that's 60 percent year-over-year – garnered significant attention. There was some pushback to the volume of the issuance we project. As CapEx growth outpaces revenue and pressures free cash flow, credit becomes a key financing bridge. Importantly, AI is not the sole driver of the surge that we forecast. A pick-up in M&A activity and the resulting increase in acquisition-driven IG supply also will play a key role, in our view. We also received pushback on our expectation for modest widening in credit spreads, roughly 15 basis points in investment grade, which we still think will remain near the low end of the historical ranges despite this massive surge in supply. Some clients argued for more widening, but we note that the bulk of the AI-related issuance will come from high-quality – you know AAA-AA rated issuers – which are currently underrepresented in credit markets relative to their equity market weight. Additionally, continued policy easing – two more rate cuts – modest economic re-acceleration, and persistent demand from yield-focused buyers should help to anchor the spreads. Our macro strategists' framing of 2026 as a transition year for global rates – from synchronized tightening to asynchronous normalization as central banks approach equilibrium – was broadly well received, as was their call for government bond yields to remain broadly range-bound. However, their view that markets will price in a dovish tilt to Fed policy sparked considerable debate. While there was broad agreement on the outlook for yield curve steepening, the nature of that steepening – bull steepening or bear steepening – remained a point of contention. Outside the U.S., the biggest pushback was to the call on the ECB cutting rates two more times in 2026. Our economists disagreed with President Lagarde – that the disinflationary process has ended. Even with moderate continued euro area growth on German fiscal expansion, but consolidation elsewhere, we still see an output gap that will eventually lead inflation to undershoot the ECB's 2 percent target. We also engaged in lively dialogue and debate on China. The key debate here comes down to a micro versus macro story. Put differently, the market is not the economy and the economy is not the market. Sentiment on investments in China has turned around this year, and our strategists are on board with that view. However, from an economics point of view, we see deflation continuing and fiscal policy from Beijing as a bit too modest to spark near-term reflation. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, les réservations pour les vacances de Noël en forte augmentation et la publicité de la télévision publique. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, lbaisse de la natalité liée à des raisons financières et pratiques, la tentation de l'exil des chefs d'entreprise et la fermeture de Brandt. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, lbaisse de la natalité liée à des raisons financières et pratiques, la tentation de l'exil des chefs d'entreprise et la fermeture de Brandt. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, le vote du projet de loi de financement de la Sécurité sociale. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

La decisione della Fed è attesa questa sera: i mercati sperano in un taglio dei tassi, ma Powell ha avvertito che non è affatto garantito, vista la scarsità di dati dopo lo shutdown. Le aspettative di inflazione di lungo periodo restano tra 2,2 e 2,3 per cento, mentre quelle a un anno dell'Università del Michigan sono ancora al 4,6 per cento, complice l'effetto temporaneo dei dazi. Trump, che spinge per un taglio, in comizio ha rivendicato i successi dell'amministrazione, attaccato Biden e ribadito che "la mia parola preferita è dazi". In Europa, Lagarde ha escluso tagli e aperto alla possibilità di rialzi, sostenendo che l'economia dell'Eurozona va meglio del previsto e rilanciando la proposta di eurobond per la difesa. Ne abbiamo parlato con Franco Bruni, presidente dell'Ispi e professore emerito alla Bocconi.Istat: in primo trimestre piu 9,5 per cento compravendite immobiliari abitativeNel primo trimestre sono state registrate 228.623 convenzioni notarili di compravendita, in crescita dell'1,5 per cento sul trimestre precedente e dell'8,7 per cento su base annua. Il comparto abitativo, che rappresenta oltre il 93 per cento del totale, aumenta del 9,5 per cento rispetto al 2024, trainato da Nord-ovest e Nord-est, mentre il Centro è in calo. Il comparto economico resta stabile. Il Rapporto Federproprietà-Censis evidenzia tuttavia che in Italia ci sono 8,5 milioni di case inutilizzate: molti proprietari non affittano per timore della morosità. Nel frattempo, gli affitti brevi superano le 691.000 strutture. Ne abbiamo parlato con Mario Breglia, presidente di Scenari Immobiliari.Anfia: transizione da correggere, così l'Europa si fermaBruxelles sta definendo un nuovo pacchetto per l'automotive che potrebbe rivedere lo stop ai motori endotermici dal 2035 e sancire la neutralità tecnologica, includendo anche biocarburanti ed e-fuel. La presentazione potrebbe slittare perché restano nodi politici e industriali. Anfia chiede una correzione urgente della transizione ecologica, giudicata troppo rapida e già dannosa: la filiera automobilistica europea conta 13 milioni di addetti e, nonostante investimenti elevati nell'elettrificazione, si stimano 100.000 posti persi nel 2024 e altri 400.000 a rischio entro il 2028. L'associazione sollecita obiettivi di CO2 più realistici, flessibilità sul 2035 con una quota fino al 25 per cento di veicoli non elettrici, riconoscimento delle tecnologie alternative e maggior tutela della produzione europea. Ne abbiamo parlato con Roberto Vavassori, presidente di Anfia.

APAC stocks were mostly subdued amid cautiousness ahead of today's Fed policy decision and dot plots, while the region also digested the latest Chinese inflation data.China is buying US soybeans again, but is reportedly falling short of the goal set by the Trump trade agreement, according to CNBC.US Trade Representative Greer said China's rare earths continue to flow and expects to sign more trade deals over the coming weeks.US President Trump is to kick off the final round of Fed Chair interviews this week, while senior administration officials said Kevin Hassett remains in pole position to succeed Powell as Fed Chair, according to the FT.European equity futures indicate a marginally lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market finished with losses of 0.1% on Tuesday.Looking ahead, highlights include Norwegian CPI (Nov), US Employment Costs (Q3), BoC/FOMC/BCB Rate Announcement. Speakers include BoE's Bailey, ECB's Lagarde, BoC's Macklem & Fed's Powell. Supply from the UK. Earnings from Oracle, Adobe & Synopsys.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are broadly firmer, alongside modest strength across US equity futures; Marvell (+10%) benefits following its upbeat outlook for data-centre growth.DXY is softer and towards the round 99.00 mark as Trump referred to Hassett as the "potential" next Fed Chair, GBP top G10 performer, whilst CHF was briefly pressured post-CPI.Fixed benchmarks firmer but off highs as crude climbs. US yields steeper on Trump's Fed commentary.Crude grinds higher as traders digest the lack of progress from the Putin-Witkoff meeting; XAU trades rangebound; Copper extends to new ATHs.Looking ahead, US Services/Composite PMI Final (Nov), US ISM Services PMI (Nov), ADP National Employment (Nov), Import Prices (Sep), Industrial Production (Sep), NBP Policy Announcement, Speakers including BoE's Mann, ECB's Lagarde, Earnings from Salesforce, Snowflake, Dollar Tree.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

USD hit and US yield curve steeper as Trump referred to Hassett as the "potential" next Fed ChairAPAC stocks mixed, only partially sustaining the Wall St. handover, where the NQ outperformedEUR and GBP both edged higher, AUD shrugged off disappointing Q3 GDPCrude contained, Kremlin said talks with the US were constructive but are no closer to resolving the situationLooking ahead, highlights include EZ/UK/US Services/Composite PMI Final (Nov), Swiss CPI (Nov), US ISM Services PMI (Nov), ADP National Employment (Nov), Import Prices (Sep), Industrial Production (Sep), NBP Policy Announcement, Speakers including BoE's Mann, ECB's Lagarde & Lane, Supply from UK, Earnings from Salesforce, Snowflake, Dollar Tree, Macy's & Inditex.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, le dysfonctionnement du système politique inquiète les Français et la gauche qui va devoir choisir entre son électorat homosexuel et son électorat musulman. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, un papier sur le sommeil et nos rêves dans Les Échos, la lettre de Gabriekl Attal a 60.000 chefs d'entreprise et l'intelligence artificielle accélère les risques de pénurie d'électricité. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, une enquête sur le pluralisme à Radio France Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

APAC stocks mostly followed suit to the gains on Wall Street, where stocks were underpinned amid Russia/Ukraine optimism and a softer yield environment.US President Trump thinks they are getting very close to a deal on Ukraine, while he separately commented that they are making progress and Ukraine is happy.Nikkei 225 shrugged off a source report that the BoJ is preparing markets for a possible hike as soon as December, although one of the sources noted that the decision between hiking in December or January remained a close call; JPY strengthened, 10yr JGB futures trickled lower.NZD outperformed after the RBNZ cut the OCR by 25bps to 2.25%, as expected, and kept its options open on future policy, although its projections suggested a pause in rates throughout 2026.White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is reportedly seen as the frontrunner in the Fed Chair search, according to Bloomberg citing sources, although separate sources said “there is no frontrunner”.Looking ahead, highlights include US Dallas Fed (Oct), Jobless Claims (w/e 22 Nov), UK Autumn Budget, Fed Beige Book, Speakers including ECB's Vujcic, Lane & Lagarde, Supply from Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump thinks they are getting very close to a deal on Ukraine, while he separately commented that they are making progress and Ukraine is happy.European bourses are entirely in the green, with the FTSE 100 (+0.2%) trading cautiously ahead of the UK Autumn Budget; US equity futures are modestly firmer.DXY is essentially flat, NZD outperforms after the RBNZ cut rates by 25bps (as expected), but projections suggest a pause throughout 2026.JPY initially strengthened on reports that the BoJ is preparing markets for a possible hike as soon as December, although one of the sources noted that the decision between hiking in December or January remained a close call; JPY is now lower vs USD.Bonds are on the backfoot, paring recent upside; Gilts initially lagged, but now trading in-line with peers as traders eye Chancellor Reeves.Crude is a little lower as focus remains on Russia/Ukraine peace talks, 3M LME Copper surges.Looking ahead, highlights include US Dallas Fed (Oct), Jobless Claims (w/e 22 Nov), UK Autumn Budget, Fed Beige Book, Speakers including ECB's Lane & Lagarde, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Lundi 24 novembre, Frédéric Simottel a reçu Clément David, Président de Theodo Cloud, Enguerand Renault, directeur de la rédaction Satellifacts et Damien Douani, responsable de l'innovation de l'école Narratiiv et fondateur de Topos. Ils sont revenus sur le début prometteur de l'application Qwen AI d'Alibaba, l'éventuelle autorisation de Nvidia de vendre ses puces en Chine, et l'alerte de C. Lagarde sur le retard de l'europe, dans l'émission Tech & Co, la quotidienne, sur BFM Business. Retrouvez l'émission du lundi au jeudi et réécoutez la en podcast.

APAC stocks mostly firmer following the Wall St. handover, though China was mixed amid reports of Trump selling NVIDIA chips to China.Fed's Collins says she has not made up her mind on December. Treasury Secretary Bessent said prices are getting better.DXY contained, EUR/USD bounced from 1.15, Cable rangebound, USD/JPY firmer but limited in holiday trade.USTs and Bunds contained after the moves seen on Friday; Crude is uneventful, XAU continues to fade.US' Rubio said good progress had been made re. Ukraine, and none of the outstanding issues are insurmountable.Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo (Nov), US National Activity Index (Oct), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov), Speakers including ECB's Cipollone, Elderson & Lagarde, Supply from the US.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Secretary of State Rubio said good progress had been made re. Ukraine, and none of the outstanding issues are insurmountable.European bourses opened stronger, but sentiment has waned a touch in recent trade; US equity futures are mixed.DXY is marginally subdued, EUR gains a touch amidst geopolitical progress whilst the JPY lags.Lacklustre trade across fixed income with USTs flat whilst Bunds are firmer by a handful of ticks.Oil complex has been pressured by progress on Ukrainian peace talks, XAU trades rangebound.Looking ahead, highlights include US National Activity Index (Oct), Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov), Speakers including ECB's Cipollone, Elderson & Lagarde, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded lower across the board as the sharp Wall Street selloff reverberated through the region despite the absence of fresh catalysts.JPMorgan no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in December, vs its prior forecast of a 25bp cut.10yr JGB futures retraced some of this week's losses whilst the session saw a slew of commentary from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, who, on the bond market, attempted to alleviate some fiscal woes.Japan may intervene before USD/JPY reaches 160, according to Bloomberg, citing a government panellist.Crypto markets continue bleeding with Bitcoin falling under USD 85,500 at a 7-month low, while Ethereum fell to a 4-month low.Looking ahead, UK PSNB (Oct), Retail Sales (Oct), EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs (Nov), US Real Weekly Earnings (Sep), Canadian Retail Sales (Sep), US Uni. of Michigan (Nov), Euro Area Indicator of Negotiated Wage Rates (Q3), Moody's on the UK & Italy, ECB's de Guindos, Lagarde, Nagel; Fed's Williams, Barr, Jefferson, Logan; SNB's Schlegel.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, la déclaration du général Mandon sur "la France qui doit accepter de perdre ses enfants", le déni de la menace russe, la lutte contre le narcotrafic, une majorité de LR qui souhaite l'union des droites avec le RN et le Girlcott, l'équivalent féminin du boycott Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

L'Unione Europea prova a rinfilare chat control nella sua agenda grazie al cosiddetto Compromesso Danese. Scopriamo insieme tutti i dettagli e ricominciamo la lotta per il diritto alla privacy.Inoltre: Bitcoin è morto, La banca centrale ceca sperimenta la riserva di valore in bitcoin, Recover Bull il nuovo schema di backup delle chiavi private, e NiceHash lancia la vendita di bitcoin vergini.It's showtime!

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, la colère des patrons contre Emmanuel Macron, le budget 2026 et la DZ Mafia.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, Emmanuel Macron et les patrons, la Suisse et Donald Trump en guerre sur les droits de douanes.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, des sondages sur les "petits blonds Normands" et sur les jeunes musulmans de France, et des maires dépassés par le narcotrafic.Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: So today and tomorrow, a two-part conversation on Morgan Stanley's year ahead outlook. Today, we'll focus on the all-important macroeconomic backdrop. And tomorrow, we'll be back with our views on investing across asset classes and markets. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, l'interview de Roland Lescure, le début du sommet Choose France, le vent de panique sur les patrimoines français et un gouvernement dépassé par les débats sur le budget. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, les ingénieurs qui ont perdu confiance en la reconquête industrielle de la France, le retour de Boualem Sansal sur fond de polémique entre macroniste et retailliste, les attaques d'ours terrorisent la population au Japon. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Dura condanna per lo sviluppatore di Samourai Wallet. Massimo della pena. Cosa significa per il mondo dello sviluppo open source?Inoltre: un nuovo documentario su Bitcoin accende le speranze, Mi Primer Bitcoin lascia definitivamente El Salvador, Square abilita i pagamenti in bitcoin, e una panel sul Lightning Network esemplifica tutta la complessità della scalabilità.It's showtime!

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, le récit du 13 novembre 2015 au Stade de France, Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, les commémorations des 10 ans des attentats du 13 novembre et le Jour J pour la suspension de la réforme des retraites. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

APAC stocks were mostly subdued with the region failing to sustain the positive global risk momentum that had been spurred by US-China trade optimism and US government reopening hopes, while there were few fresh catalysts overnight to fuel the recent rally.US Senate voted 60 vs. 40 to pass legislation to fund the federal government and end the shutdown, while the bill now goes to the House.US House Speaker Johnson is seeking a Wednesday vote on the stopgap bill, and won't commit to an ACA subsidy vote.China is reportedly devising a plan to keep the US military from getting its rare earth magnets and is considering a ‘validated end-user' system to fast-track certain export licenses, according to WSJ.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4% after the cash market finished with gains of 1.8% on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Unemployment/Wages (Sep), EZ & German ZEW (Nov), US NFIB (Oct), Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP, Riksbank Minutes, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Greene & Dhingra, RBA's Jones, Supply from Netherlands, Earnings from Porsche SE, RWE & Alcon. Holidays: US Veterans' Day; Canadian Remembrance DayRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Tous les jours dans la matinale d'Europe 1, Olivier de Lagarde scrute et analyse la presse du jour. Aujourd'hui, l'indépendance de l'île de Bougainville et l'affrontement des deux empires Pinault et Arnault sur la pelouse du stade Jean Bouin. Hébergé par Audiomeans. Visitez audiomeans.fr/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the mixed lead from Wall St, where the majority of sectors declined but tech outperformed.RBA kept Cash Rate unchanged at 3.60%, as expected; judged some of the increase in underlying inflation in Q3 was due to temporary factors.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.8% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3% on Monday.DXY is flat, antipodeans lag with AUD softer post-RBA. JPY outperforms, underpinned by a haven bid and more verbal intervention.In a rare pre-budget press conference today, UK Chancellor Reeves will indicate she is prepared to break Labour's manifesto promise not to raise income tax, according to The Telegraph.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Trade, US RCM/TIPP, New Zealand Jobs, RBNZ FSR, BoJ Minutes (Sep), French Assembly PLF vote process begins, ECB's Lagarde, Nagel and Balz, BoE's Breeden & Fed's Bowman, Supply from UK & Germany.Earnings from Phillips, Evonik, Fresenius MC, Ferrari, BP; AMD, Supermicro, Marathon, Pfizer & Uber.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today's decisions. The statement also covers: • how the economy is performing • how we expect prices to develop • the risks to the economic outlook • the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 30 October 2025. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 30 October 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2025/html/mopo_statement_explained_october.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 30 October 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is251030~4f74dde15e.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 30 October 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.mp251030~cf0540b5c0.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 30 October 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds251030~25d99d5b1c.en.pdf European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

Nel terzo trimestre 2025 il Pil italiano, corretto per gli effetti di calendario, è rimasto invariato rispetto al trimestre precedente e in crescita dello 0,4% su base annua, secondo le stime preliminari dell'Istat. Dopo il -0,1% del secondo trimestre e il +0,3% del primo, la crescita zero non modifica la stima acquisita per l'anno, pari allo 0,5%, in linea con le previsioni del governo. L'aumento del valore aggiunto nell'agricoltura è stato compensato dal calo dell'industria e dalla stabilità dei servizi. Dal lato della domanda, contributo negativo della componente interna e positivo di quella estera netta. Affrontiamo il tema con Carlo Altomonte, Associate Dean e Direttore PNRR Lab, SDA Bocconi, e membro CD Fondazione M&MLa Bce lascia i tassi fermi al 2%, come da atteseLa Bce, riunita a Firenze, ha mantenuto invariati i tassi: 2% sui depositi, 2,15% sui rifinanziamenti principali e 2,40% sui prestiti marginali. L'inflazione resta vicina al target del 2% e le prospettive restano stabili, sebbene il contesto globale resti incerto per le tensioni geopolitiche e commerciali. Lagarde ha sottolineato che l'economia continua a mostrare resilienza grazie al mercato del lavoro e alla solidità dei bilanci privati. La crescita dello 0,2% nell'area euro nel terzo trimestre è risultata leggermente sopra le attese. La presidente ha inoltre annunciato l'avvio della nuova fase dell'euro digitale, che garantirà privacy, sicurezza e competitività nei pagamenti. Il commento è affidato a Donato Masciandaro, docente politiche monetarie Università BocconiBorse Ue restano in rosso dopo nulla di fatto Bce. A Wall Street giù Meta e MicrosoftI listini europei chiudono in calo dopo la decisione della Bce di lasciare i tassi invariati e in una settimana intensa per le trimestrali e le banche centrali globali. A Wall Street pesano le vendite su Meta (-11,8%) e Microsoft, penalizzate dalle previsioni di maggiori investimenti in IA, mentre Alphabet sale grazie ai ricavi pubblicitari. In Europa, la crescita del Pil del terzo trimestre è risultata leggermente superiore alle attese (+0,2% nell'eurozona, +0,3% nell'Ue), trainata da Francia e Spagna. A Piazza Affari bene Campari e Tenaris, male Prysmian e Stellantis (-10,1%), colpita dai dubbi sul futuro outlook e dalle incertezze legate alla crisi dei semiconduttori. Affrontiamo il tema con Martina Soligo, RadiocorVertice Usa-Cina, Trump: «Taglio ai dazi e accordo sulle terre rare»Donald Trump e Xi Jinping si sono incontrati a Busan raggiungendo un accordo per dimezzare i dazi statunitensi sui prodotti cinesi e rilanciare le esportazioni di soia americana, terre rare e controlli sul fentanyl. Trump ha inoltre annunciato la ripresa dei test sulle armi nucleari, sostenendo di voler mantenere il primato militare Usa. Pechino sospenderà per un anno i limiti all'export di alcune terre rare, sebbene restino in vigore restrizioni introdotte in aprile. L'intesa avrà ripercussioni dirette sull'Unione Europea, come sottolineato dal commissario Ue al Commercio Maros Sefcovic. Ne parliamo con Marco Masciaga, Il Sole 24 Ore, New Delhi

Morgan Stanley's chief economists discuss how policymakers in China, Japan and the European Union are addressing slower growth, deflation or the return of inflationary pressures. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Well, a lot has changed since the second quarter and the last time we did one of these around the world economics roundtable. After an extended pause, the United States Federal Reserve started cutting rates again. Europe's recovery is showing, well, some mixed signals. And in Asia, there's once again increasing reliance on policy support to keep growth on track.Today for the first part of a two-part conversation, I'm going to engage with Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia economist, and Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe economist, to really get into a conversation about what's going on in the economy around the world.It's Tuesday, September 30th at 10am in New York.Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt.Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in HongSeth Carpenter: So, it's getting to be the end of the third quarter, and the narrative around the world is still quite murky from my perspective. The Fed has delivered on a rate cut. The ECB has decided that maybe disinflation is over. And in Asia, China's policymakers are trying to lean in and push policy to right the wrongs of deflation in that economy.I want to get into some of the real hard questions that investors around the world are asking in terms of what's going on in the economy, how it's working out, and what we should look for. So, Chetan, if I can actually start with you. One of the terms that we've heard a lot coming out of China is the anti-involution policy.Can you just lay out briefly for us, what do we mean when we say the anti-involution policy in China?Chetan Ahya: Well, the anti-evolution policy is a response to China's excess capacity and persistent deflation challenge. And in China's context, involution refers to the dynamic where producers compete excessively, resulting in aggressive price cuts and diminishing returns on capital employed. And look, at the heart of this deflation challenge is China's approach of maintaining high real GDP growth with more investment in manufacturing and infrastructure when aggregate demand slows. And in the past few years, policy makers push for investment in manufacturing and infrastructure to offset the sharp slow down in property sector.And as a result, a number of industry sectors now have large excess capacities, explaining this persistent deflationary environment. And after close to two and a half years of deflation, policy makers are recognizing that deflation is not good for the corporate sector, households and the government. And from the past experience, we know that when policymakers in China signal a clear intention, it will be followed up by an intensification of policy efforts to cut capacity in select sectors. However, we think moving economy out of deflation will be challenging. These supply reduction efforts may be helpful but will not be sufficient on their own. And this time for a sustainable solution to deflation problem, we think a pivot is needed – supporting consumption via systematic efforts to increase social welfare spending, particularly targeted towards migrant workers in urban China and rural poor. But we are not optimistic that this solution will be implemented in scale.Seth Carpenter: So that makes sense because in the past when we've been talking about the issue of deflation in China, it's essentially this mismatch between the amount of demand in the economy not being sufficient to match the supply. As you said, you and your team have been thinking that the best solution here would be to increase demand, and instead what the policymakers are doing is reducing supply.So, if you don't think this change in policy, this anti-evolution policy is sufficient to break this deflation cycle – what do you see as the most likely outcome for economic growth in China this year and next?Chetan Ahya: So, this year we expect GDP growth to be around 4.7 percent, which implies that in the back half of the year you'll see growth slowing down to around 4.5 percent because we already grew at 5.2 in the first half. And, going forward we think that, you know, you should be looking more at normal GDP growth set because as we just discussed deflation is a key challenge.So, while we have real GDP growth at 4.7 for 2025, normal GDP growth is going to be 4 percent. And next year, again, we think normal GDP growth will be in that range of 4 percent.Seth Carpenter: That whole spiral of deflation – it's sort of interesting, Japan as an economy has broken that sort of stagnation or disinflation spiral that it was in for 25 years. We've been writing for a long time about the reflation story going on in Japan. Let me ask you, our forecast has been that the reflationary dynamic is there. It's embedded, it's not going away anytime. But, on the other hand, we basically see the Bank of Japan as on hold, not just for the rest of this year, but for all of next year as well.Can you let us know a little bit about what's going on with Japan and why we don't think the Bank of Japan might raise interest rates anytime soon?Chetan Ahya: So, Seth, at the outset, we think BoJ needs still some more time to be sure that we are on that virtuous cycle of rising prices and wages. Yes, both prices and wages have gone up. But it is very clear from the data that a large part of this rise in prices can be attributed to currency depreciation and supply side factors, such as higher energy prices earlier, and food prices now. And similarly, currency depreciation has also played a role in lifting corporate profits, which then has allowed the corporate sector to increase wages.So, if you look at the drivers to rise in prices and wage growth as of now, we think that demand has not really played a big role. To just establish that point, if you look at Japan's GDP, it's just about 1 percent higher than pre-COVID on a real basis. And if you look at Japan's consumption, real consumption trend, it's still 1 percent below pre-COVID levels.So, we think BoJ still needs more time. And just to add one more point on this. BoJ is also conscious about what tariffs will do to Japan's exports, and economy; and therefore, they want to wait for some more time to see the evidence that demand also picks up before they take up a policy rate hike.Seth Carpenter: So, one economy in deflation and policy is probably not enough to prevent it. Another economy that's got reflation, but a very cautious central bank who wants to make sure it continues. Jens, let's pivot now to Europe because at the last policy meeting, President Lagarde of the ECB said pretty, pretty strongly that she thinks the disinflationary process in Europe has come to an end. And that the ECB is basically on hold at this point going forward.Do you agree with her assessment? Do you think she's got it right? You think she's got it wrong? How could she be wrong, if she's wrong? And what's your outlook for the ECB?Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, there a ton of questions here. I think I was also struck by the statement as you were. I think there is probably – that's at least my interpretation – a reference here to – Okay, we have come down a long way in terms of inflation in the Euro area. Rather being at 10 percent at some point in the past and now basically at target. And we think; I mean, we just got the data actually, for September in. It's more or less in line with what we had expected up again to 2.3. But that's really it. And then from here it's really down.Very good reasons to believe this will be the case. We have actually inflation below target next year, and the ECB agrees. So that's why I think she can't have made reference to what Liza had because the ECB itself is predicting that inflation from here will fall. So, I think it's really probably rather description of the way traveled. And then there may be some nuances here in the policy prescription forward.So, for now we think inflation will undershoot the target. And we think this undershoot has good chances to extend well into the medium term. So that's the famous 2027 forecast. The ECB in its last installment of the forecast in September doesn't disagree. Or it's actually, in theory at least, in agreement because it has a 1.9 here for 2027. So, it's also below target.But when asked about that at the press conference, the President said, yes, it's actually, very close to 2. So, it really cannot be really distinguished here. So, from that perspective, policy makers probably want to wait it out. In particular for the October meeting, which is not a forecast meeting, we don't expect any change.And then the focus of attention is really on the December meeting with the new forecast. What will 2028 show in their forecast for inflation? And will the 1.9 in [20]27 actually be rather 1.8? In which case I think the discussion on further cuts will heat up. We have a cut for December, and we have another one for March.Seth Carpenter: Of course, very often one of the things that drives inflation is overall economic growth and a key determinant of economic growth tends to be fiscal policy. And there we've got two big economies very much in the headlines right now. Germany, on the one hand, with plans to increase spending both on infrastructure and on defense spending. And then France, who's seen lots of instability, shall we say, with the government as they try to come up with a plan for fiscal consolidation.So, with those two economies in mind, can you walk us through what is the fiscal outlook for Germany, in particular? Is it going to be enough to stimulate overall growth in Europe? And then for France, are they going to be able to get the fiscal consolidation that they're looking for? How do you see those two economies evolving in terms of fiscal policy?Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, it's of course neither black or white, as you know. I think here we really look into the German case specifically, as the clear case where fiscal stimulus will happen. It may just not happen as quickly, and it's a very trade open economy. So, it's very much exposed to the current headwinds coming out of China for one. Or also U.S. tariffs. So, from that we conclude our net-net is actually, yes, there is textbook fiscal stimulus. So, basically domestic demand replacing less foreign demand.So that's fine, but just not enough. We see essentially better growth in Germany, but that's more cyclically driven. But it was; it just would not be enough for what you would normally think given the size of the fiscal stimulus, which is enormous. But it will also take some time, this fiscal stimulus to unfold.On the other side in France, as you rightly ask, how much consolidation are we going to get? I think the answer has to be very likely less than what the last – or the previous Prime Minister has had planned. So, all in all, that gets us into a situation of a country that lacks a clear economic policy structure, a clear governance structure; tries to – on a very fragile parliamentary majority – tries to consolidate the budget. Probably gets less consolidation going forward than what would be desirable. And, you know, here is sort of – not really...It's been muddling through a little bit. This is probably a good description of the approach here in France, and we actually have on the lack of a clear economic policy agenda and still some fiscal consolidation. We have actually lackluster growth in France for this year and next.Seth Carpenter: Okay, so what I'm hearing you saying is inflation seems likely to come down and probably undershoot their target causing President Lagarde and the ECB to reconsider how many cuts they're going to do. And then growth probably isn't going to be as stimulated by fiscal policy as I think lots of people in markets are hoping for.Chetan, Jens, thanks for joining us.And to the listeners, thank you for listening. Be sure to turn in tomorrow where I'm going to put Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist on the hot seat, talk about the U.S. and maybe one or two more economies around the world.And if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThere is virtually no inflation, the Fed predictions have not come true, energy prices are down, so why isn't the Fed lowering the rates by 2 to 3 points? ECB panics over Trump going after the Fed, their world is about to be destroyed. If Trump did not create the parallel system the country would be in a depression right now. The [DS] wants a war, it is part of the 16 year plan and they are trying to move forward with it. The EU has blamed Russia for the illegal problem, cyber attacks and now Ursla says Russia jammed her plane and she had to land. Scare Event will be necessary to have peace. Trump has now called out Big Pharma. Big Pharma gave Trump the covid vaccine results but has not shown the same results to the public, Trump wants them to be transparent. Did Big Pharma lie to Trump during covid to push their vaccines?   Economy (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");  President Trump Calls on Judge Jia Cobb to Recuse Herself From Lawsuit by Fired Federal Reserve Board Member Lisa Cook After Sorority They Are Both Members of Releases Statement in Support of Cook  President Donald Trump posted a statement Sunday night calling on U.S. District Judge Jia Cobb to recuse herself from presiding over the lawsuit by Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Lisa Cook challenging Trump's firing of her from the Fed last Monday over allegations of mortgage fraud. https://twitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/1962326210312016149?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1962326210312016149%7Ctwgr%5Ebf1a09094e9d30de8c0fd36bfbd472dd31c215bb%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2025%2F09%2Fpresident-trump-calls-judge-jia-cobb-recuse-herself%2F Source: thegatewaypundit.com Trump's Pressure on the Fed Poses a ‘Very Serious Danger,' ECB President Warns President Donald Trump's push to take control of the Federal Reserve could pose a serious threat to the U.S. and global economy, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has warned. It would be “very difficult” for Trump to take control of the Fed because he can only remove Fed governors if the Supreme Court finds them guilty of serious misconduct, Lagarde told France's Radio Classique on Monday. “If he succeeds, that would be a very serious danger for the American and global economy,” Lagarde said. Source: barrons.com Bessent: Trump May Declare National Housing Emergency This Fall Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Washington Examiner on Monday that President Donald Trump might declare a national housing emergency this fall to address rising prices and dwindling supply. It would be the first national housing emergency since the Great Recession, Datoc reported, when the housing bubble burst as President Barack Obama was preparing to take over the White House from former President George W. Bush. Trump blasted Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell earlier this month for "hurting" the housing industry "very badly" as he campaigned for a reduction in interest rates. Trump has repeatedly urged Powell to cut interest rates while also sharply criticizing Powell.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger Picture ECB President is pushing the WEF climate agenda, she wants the banks in charge and to dictate how to tax the people. Germany's economy is in a recession. Trump is bringing the manufactures to the US. The Fed is trapped, if they lower a little Trump will blame them, Trump and Bessent made it clear it must be a big cut. The [DS] is currently using the Judiciary as a delay tactic. They will try to delay Trump's Executive actions, but this will fail and they know it. The [DS] will then move into the next phase and this is what Trump is countering now. He is dismantling their riots right in front of their eyes. The National Guard and Military will clean it the cities before the D's can push their agenda. The playbook is known and Trump is forcing the [DS] to exactly where he wants them.   Economy https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1959976919585173984 The ECB's Mandate: The ECB supervises major banks in the Eurozone through the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM). Lagarde argues that climate-related risks fall within this supervisory duty because they can directly impact banks' balance sheets and operations. She disagrees with views (likely from the interviewer in this case) that central banks should not involve themselves in climate issues, insisting it's not about environmental activism but about basic risk management.   Christine Lagarde's emphasis on the ECB's duty to assess climate change risks for banks aligns with and is influenced by the World Economic Forum's (WEF) broader climate agenda, though it's not exclusively driven by it. The WEF has long promoted the integration of climate risks into financial systems as part of its push for sustainable finance, global economic resilience, and the transition to a low-carbon economy.   This fits into the WEF's "Great Reset" and sustainable development goals, which call for rethinking capitalism to address climate threats. Central banks like the ECB are seen as key players in this, through "greening" finance (e.g., tilting investments toward low-carbon assets). German Economy Shows No Signs Of Emerging From Recession  Germany's Mittelstand Collapses as “Investment Booster” Flops The German economy shows no signs of emerging from recession. The monthly Mittelstand index, compiled by the consulting firm DATEV, confirms that the downturn continues unabated. The crisis has spread across virtually all sectors of the economy. The recovery announced by the German government remains a summer fantasy. Data collected in July through DATEV's monthly survey of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) describes the economic situation as extremely fragile—with no upturn in sight. SMEs saw revenues fall by 1.7 percent year-on-year in July. The corresponding business cycle index dropped, seasonally and calendar adjusted, to 91.9 points—firmly anchored in recession territory.   Source: zerohedge.com https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1959877151680770323  ” Germany's universal welfare system is one of the most comprehensive in Europe, covering healthcare, unemployment benefits, pensions, housing aid, family subsidies, and more. But the strain of demographic aging, high immigration, and mounting debt obligations has led to growing political pressure to reform or scale back entitlements. (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.