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Voices of Experience - 04-23-25 - Look to Enron to Foretell the Future & Author Sharon Flake by Alternative Talk- 1150AM KKNW
In the difficult approach to the climax to the summit of Mt.Meru a in the 90-Days journey of the season of growth, we have come near to the womb of the void. In this episode, we Foretell or Four telling of the numerology of “four” as luck, chance, or individual's energies of karma or the action of that can change the course of our destiny. Kali is unpredictable, unexpected, unknowing, unwilling void that will create and destroy all things. In the Kali Yuga, we have to go through the death and destruction to get to the peak of the Golden Ages. This is called growing pains. As the sleeping phoenix awakens, no human experience can explain the consciousness shift as a whole until the individual self is fully aware his self-autonomy and her self-authority in making wise decisions. The forecasting of how the planet Uranus play in the evolutionary of disseminations of the soul discovery in bite size serving of the ‘Golden Nuggets” in the last 86 days from the base of the mountain to the peaks and valleys on this journey. The Cosmic Significance of our self- understanding is learning how to actually be self-realized over a thousand ways we can experience through the GPS(God Planning System) of inner process and outer process that allowed us to perceive the views to make appropriate decisions that are not wasteful of our divine and defined energies that are build in our bodies. You can have the Four-sight to see near and far. Lean to have the sight to build stamina to have a wealth of wisdom of insight and deep sightings of what about to come in the shift of directions and dimensions. Bon-voyage!
"Why Did Jesus Foretell His Death?." - March 23, 2025VariousBro. Kyle Waddell
How Accurately Did God Foretell His Son's Coming? Matthew 4:12-17 & Psalm 8Walking in the Gospels Week 2, Day 3Pastor Jason Van BemmelForest Hill Presbyterian Churchwww.foresthillpca.org
President Trump has made his picks for his second term cabinet more quickly and the transition is more organized and ready for Executive Branch action. Will hopes and fears of an executive reinvention be born out or will the difficulties of the first term show their face again? David Lewis finds that Trump's first term choices did not go over well with career civil servants but that there was not as much change as sometimes implied. Heath Brown went in-depth into the last transition from Trump to Biden and foresees problems ahead from chaotic transitions and the major ambitions of Trump's second term appointees. They are both looking ahead to more radical shifts in Trump's second term, with more appointees at odds with the agencies they are directing.
Erik Nel of Terebinth Capital shows how you can reach your destiny through avid reading and working towards it.
Send us a Text Message.The July 13 assassination attempt on former President Trump's life made headlines across the world. Did God forewarn of this event with a prophetic message? We'll take a closer look at a YouTube video from March 14 this year, where Brandon Biggs gave a prophecy that many believe foreshadowed this shocking event. We'll analyze Brandon's prophecy and discuss whether he hit the mark, exploring the implications for believers and the broader Christian community.In this episode, we critically examine a prophecy by Brandon Biggs, who claimed an attempt on President Trump's life would be made. According to Biggs, the attempt would fail, but Trump would be struck near the ear, fall to his knees, and experience a profound spiritual awakening. This prophecy, given months before the incident, has sparked significant debate about Biggs' legitimacy as a prophet.We discuss the importance of testing prophets and prophecies. As charismatics, we believe in the gift of prophecy but emphasize the biblical mandate to "test everything; hold fast what is good" (1 Thessalonians 5:21). We analyze Biggs' character, doctrine, and track record, scrutinizing his predictions in light of Scripture. Our goal is not to dismiss prophecy but to ensure it aligns with biblical truth and edifies the Church.In this episode, we explore why rigorous testing of prophetic words is crucial. We reference key scriptures like Deuteronomy 13:1-5 and Matthew 7:15-23, which warn about false prophets who may deliver accurate predictions but lead people astray through false doctrines and unbiblical practices. We also emphasize the need to evaluate prophets based on their fruit, doctrine, and track record, as outlined in Matthew 7:15-20 and Deuteronomy 18:20-22.Join us as we navigate the complex landscape of modern prophecy, seeking to uphold the integrity of the charismatic movement while guarding against deception. Whether you're a charismatic, cessationist, or somewhere in between, The Remnant Radio is committed to providing thoughtful, balanced, and biblically grounded discussions on the gifts of the Spirit and contemporary Christian issues.The Remnant Radio is hosted by Joshua Lewis, pastor of King's Fellowship Church in Ada, Oklahoma, along with his co-hosts Michael Miller, pastor of Reclamation Church Denver, and Michael Rowntree, leader of Convergence OKC. Together, they explore the dynamic and often controversial world of charismatic Christianity.You can watch a clip of Brandon Bigg's prophetic message here: httpsKairos Classroom: Use Promo Code "Remnant" for 10% offhttps://kairosclassroom.com/classes Kairos Classroom: Use Promo Code Remnant for 10% offhttps://kairosclassroom.com/classesSupport the Show.
You heard it here first! Death's Door is back and running full speed into competitive coverage, metagame analysis, and plenty of laughs. Check out a brand new episode airing Thursday, June 27th, 2024. deathsdoorsorcerypod.substack.com Music from #Uppbeat https://uppbeat.io/t/all-good-folks/get-on-up License code: CXMWFUVHKOHVLM12
The financial impact was immediate and momentous: Neither new nor existing claims, nor payment for them, could be processed.
Triple-digit temperatures in Las Vegas, wildfires in Northern and Eastern Nevada. It's time to get ready for a long, hot summer.
In this Visual Storytelling Today podcast episode, I chat with Dror Goldberg, General Manager, of Foretell Reality, and his colleague, Jordan Gutt, Director of Operations. We talked about why VR is becoming the go-to for authentic storytelling experiences, key use cases, a fun immersive tour Jordan took me to explore Foretell's rich VR environments, the process for developing narrative VR experiences for clients, their top 3 tips for brands that want to use VR to tell more authentic stories for internal or external audiences - and much more. This podcast is brought to you by the Visual Storytelling Institute, from Miami, FL. Learn more at visualstorytell.com. Get full access to Visual Storytelling Newsletter at newsletter.visualstorytell.com/subscribe
Arch MI's PolicyCast returns in 2024 with two leading housing economists to discuss the outlook for the mortgage industry, interest rates and more.
The icy hike was beautiful, and “snowflake birds” swirled ahead of my car all the way home. Real snowflakes chased me from behind, and soon accumulated six inches of the white stuff. Snow buntings and needle ice foretold the coming winter, and as I write this, it has arrived!
Breaking News In AI: https://aidaily.us Show Site: https://thinkfuture.com -- While history often rhymes, it doesn't always repeat. As we stand at the precipice of a rapidly changing world, driven by technological advancements and shifting societal norms, it's tempting to look to the past as a guide. However, the uniqueness of each moment suggests that our yesterdays might not always be the best predictors of our tomorrows. In this episode, we delve deep into the dynamics of change, the unpredictability of the future, and why embracing the unknown might be our best strategy. --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thinkfuture/message Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thinkfuture/support
With Marianna Bartold, Catholic Author and Fatima Scholar Help us spread the message, Donate to the Apostolate Today! » https://fatima.org/donate/ Watch the video of this podcast here: » https://fatima.org/category/video/signs-and-secrets/ - For more from Marianna see 'Genesis 315' and 'Keeping it Catholic' (on FB). - See her books: Fatima: The Signs and Secrets (paperback and kindle) and Guadalupe: Secrets of the Image (Kindle only). Contact Us: » WEBSITE: https://www.fatima.org » PHONE: 1-800-263-8160 » EMAIL: info@thefatimacenter.com » RUMBLE: https://rumble.com/c/c-1081881 » FACEBOOK: https://www.facebook.com/Fatima-Center-95998926441 » YOUTUBE: https://www.youtube.com/thefatimacenter » TWITTER: https://twitter.com/TheFatimaCenter » INSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/the_fatima_center/ The Fatima Center's mission is to ensure that the entire Message of Fatima is fully known, accurately understood, and deeply appreciated so that it may be followed by all. The Fatima Center has been faithful to this mission since it was founded by the late Father Nicholas Gruner in 1978. The Message of Fatima is the ONLY solution to the crisis in the Church and the world.
Zachary Karabell, president of RiverTwice Capital and founder of The Progress Network, says that investors who are looking to past economic patterns to predict what's next could be off base because, among other things, they are looking for a recession instead of trying to gauge whether we are already in one. He notes that the wide variability of potential outcomes from here shouldn't scare investors much, because the mid- and long-range outlooks generally appear to be positive, despite concerns like inflation, the inverted yield curve and more. Plus, Cassandra Rupp, financial advisor at the Vanguard Group discusses the firm's study on 'Higher Education Perspectives and The State of Saving,' which showed that an alarming number of Americans don't know much about the best and most popular vehicles to use for saving for college. In the Market Call, Andy Braun, portfolio manager for the Impax Large Cap fund talks brand-name stocks bought and sold today with a social/ESG mindset.
Our guest on this week's episode is Bart De Muynck, chief industry officer at project44. The world continues to see the effects of climate change, and now it is affecting our transportation networks. Ongoing drought conditions in Central America have caused lower water levels in the Panama Canal, restricting the number of vessels and the amount of containers they can carry as they make the canal journey. How long will the restrictions possibly last and what will be the effects on ocean shipping as we approach peak season? Our guest shares his insights. The slow period in trucking is expected to continue, according to industry experts gathered at the SMC3 Connections supply chain conference this week in Orlando. They expect the sluggish freight conditions will hang around for a while and that a broader economic recession is likely to follow.One of the biggest challenges for any company in logistics right now is labor. With low unemployment rates, skills shortages, boomer retirements, and having to compete with gig work jobs, it can be hard for many transportation and warehousing companies to stay fully staffed. This week we learned about another complication in that area, which is the rising rate of positive drug tests as more states legalize the private use of marijuana. That trend makes it even harder to find good workers.DC Velocity's sister publication CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly offers a podcast series called Supply Chain in the Fast Lane. It is co-produced with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals. A new eight-part series on Transportation Tech has launched. Go to your favorite podcast platform to subscribe and to listen to past and future episodes.Articles and resources mentioned in this episode:project44Slow times to continue, trucking industry experts sayPositive drug tests in US workforce rise to 20-year high as marijuana is legalizedGet episode transcripts.Visit Supply Chain QuarterlyListen to CSCMP and Supply Chain Quarterly's Supply Chain in the Fast Lane podcastListen to Supply Chain Quarterly's Top 10 Supply Chain Threats podcastSend feedback about this podcast to podcast@dcvelocity.comPodcast is sponsored by:Travero LogisticsOther linksAbout DC VELOCITYSubscribe to DC VELOCITYSign up for our FREE newslettersAdvertise with DC VELOCITYTop 10 Supply Chain Management Podcasts
Part 4 -- Paine & Maria/Friends Foretell in Arpil 2020 How YOU ARE YOU BEING LIED TO BY the Govt.; The CDC is crooked, FDA Feckless ...SIMPLY PUT -- We Cannot Say Much of the 'Really Good Stuff' on Here That's Why We Created Paine.tv YOU CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** GET the Intel that's Too Hot For Anywhere Else at P A IN E. TV CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** ...This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/5788750/advertisement
Part 5 -- Paine & Maria/Friends Foretell in Arpil 2020 How YOU ARE YOU BEING LIED TO BY the Govt.; The CDC is crooked, FDA Feckless ...SIMPLY PUT -- We Cannot Say Much of the 'Really Good Stuff' on Here That's Why We Created Paine.tv YOU CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** GET the Intel that's Too Hot For Anywhere Else at P A IN E. TV CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** ...This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/5788750/advertisement
Part 6 -- Paine & Maria/Friends Foretell in Arpil 2020 How YOU ARE YOU BEING LIED TO BY the Govt.; The CDC is crooked, FDA Feckless ...SIMPLY PUT -- We Cannot Say Much of the 'Really Good Stuff' on Here That's Why We Created Paine.tv YOU CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** GET the Intel that's Too Hot For Anywhere Else at P A IN E. TV CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** ...This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/5788750/advertisement
Part 3 -- Paine & Maria/Friends Foretell in Arpil 2020 How YOU ARE YOU BEING LIED TO BY the Govt.; The CDC is crooked, FDA Feckless ...SIMPLY PUT -- We Cannot Say Much of the 'Really Good Stuff' on Here That's Why We Created Paine.tv YOU CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** GET the Intel that's Too Hot For Anywhere Else at P A IN E. TV CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** ...This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/5788750/advertisement
Part 4 -- Paine & Maria & Friends Foretell in Arpil 2020 How YOU ARE YOU BEING LIED TO BY the Govt.; The CDC is crooked, FDA Feckless ...SIMPLY PUT -- We Cannot Say Much of the 'Really Good Stuff' on Here That's Why We Created Paine.tv YOU CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** GET the Intel that's Too Hot For Anywhere Else at P A IN E. TV CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** ...This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/5788750/advertisement
Part 2 -- Paine & Maria/Friends Foretell in Arpil 2020 How YOU ARE YOU BEING LIED TO BY the Govt.; The CDC is crooked, FDA Feckless ...SIMPLY PUT -- We Cannot Say Much of the 'Really Good Stuff' on Here That's Why We Created Paine.tv YOU CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** GET the Intel that's Too Hot For Anywhere Else at P A IN E. TV CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** ...This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/5788750/advertisement
Part 2 -- Paine & Maria & Friends Foretell in Arpil 2020 How YOU ARE YOU BEING LIED TO BY the Govt.; The CDC is crooked, FDA Feckless ...SIMPLY PUT -- We Cannot Say Much of the 'Really Good Stuff' on Here That's Why We Created Paine.tv YOU CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** GET the Intel that's Too Hot For Anywhere Else at P A IN E. TV CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** ...This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/5788750/advertisement
Part 3 -- Paine & Maria & Friends Foretell in Arpil 2020 How YOU ARE YOU BEING LIED TO BY the Govt.; The CDC is crooked, FDA Feckless ...SIMPLY PUT -- We Cannot Say Much of the 'Really Good Stuff' on Here That's Why We Created Paine.tv YOU CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** GET the Intel that's Too Hot For Anywhere Else at P A IN E. TV CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** ...This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/5788750/advertisement
Part 1 -- Paine & Maria & Friends Foretell in Arpil 2020 How YOU ARE YOU BEING LIED TO BY the Govt.; The CDC is crooked, FDA Feckless ...SIMPLY PUT -- We Cannot Say Much of the 'Really Good Stuff' on Here That's Why We Created Paine.tv YOU CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** GET the Intel that's Too Hot For Anywhere Else at P A IN E. TV CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** ...This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/5788750/advertisement
Part 1 -- Paine & Maria/Friends Foretell in Arpil 2020 How YOU ARE YOU BEING LIED TO BY the Govt.; The CDC is crooked, FDA Feckless ...SIMPLY PUT -- We Cannot Say Much of the 'Really Good Stuff' on Here That's Why We Created Paine.tv YOU CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** GET the Intel that's Too Hot For Anywhere Else at P A IN E. TV CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** ...This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/5788750/advertisement
Part 6 -- Paine & Maria & Friends Foretell in Arpil 2020 How YOU ARE YOU BEING LIED TO BY the Govt.; The CDC is crooked, FDA Feckless ...SIMPLY PUT -- We Cannot Say Much of the 'Really Good Stuff' on Here That's Why We Created Paine.tv YOU CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** GET the Intel that's Too Hot For Anywhere Else at P A IN E. TV CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** ...This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/5788750/advertisement
Part 5 -- Paine & Maria & Friends Foretell in Arpil 2020 How YOU ARE YOU BEING LIED TO BY the Govt.; The CDC is crooked, FDA Feckless ...SIMPLY PUT -- We Cannot Say Much of the 'Really Good Stuff' on Here That's Why We Created Paine.tv YOU CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** GET the Intel that's Too Hot For Anywhere Else at P A IN E. TV CONTRIBUTE TO THE SHOW BY CLICKING THIS LINK -- *** DONATE HERE *** ...This show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/5788750/advertisement
This show is not for tennis balls floating down the gutter of life! This show is for Happy Warriors and Happy Warriors can benefit from being able to foretell the future. This is not prophecy; it is a subset of wisdom. Let your rabbi introduce you to ancient Jewish wisdom's effective techniques for foretelling the future. The secret is in the egg. How South African political turbulence changed the price of chrome. King Charles hatched from the egg that was Queen Elizabeth II. How can we foresee his future. In 1960 America produced more than half of all the cars in the world. Today America produces 9 million cars a year while China builds 27 million cars a year. That is the egg. Can you see what is hatching? That is what this show teaches you to do. Take advantage of changing technology and enjoy the beauty and quality of plastic CDs and DVDs visit https://rabbidaniellapin.com/store/clearance/ and enjoy. President Clinton assured America no homosexual marriage. He even signed the Defense of Marriage Act in 1996. Yet had you been in possession of the techniques I teach in this show, you would have successfully predicted biological men defeating women in athletics competitions and the spread of transgenderism. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This show is not for tennis balls floating down the gutter of life! This show is for Happy Warriors and Happy Warriors can benefit from being able to foretell the future. This is not prophecy; it is a subset of wisdom. Let your rabbi introduce you to ancient Jewish wisdom's effective techniques for foretelling the future. The secret is in the egg. How South African political turbulence changed the price of chrome. King Charles hatched from the egg that was Queen Elizabeth II. How can we foresee his future. In 1960 America produced more than half of all the cars in the world. Today America produces 9 million cars a year while China builds 27 million cars a year. That is the egg. Can you see what is hatching? That is what this show teaches you to do. Take advantage of changing technology and enjoy the beauty and quality of plastic CDs and DVDs visit https://bit.ly/RabbiLapin-Clearance and enjoy. President Clinton assured America no homosexual marriage. He even signed the Defense of Marriage Act in 1996. Yet had you been in possession of the techniques I teach in this show, you would have successfully predicted biological men defeating women in athletics competitions and the spread of transgenderism.
This biblical 12th month of Adar, when scripture focuses on the Book of Esther, can foretell events happening today. Caz welcomes renowned "His Appointed Times" chalkboard teacher, Christine Vales and special call-in guest during this monthly series.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This week we are delighted to be joined by Pia Behmuaras, Product Manager & Experience Designer with Foretell Reality. Pia is a multimedia artist and VR therapy advocate who leads initiatives related to mental health and wellbeing in her work. Listen as we discuss the intersection of VR/AR with medical therapies and how virtual spaces can better humanize treatment. Listen Here: http://thevrara.com/podcast-posts/pia-behmuaras-foretell-reality Check out these links if you want to dig deeper after listening to the episode. https://foretellreality.com/ Follow us on Social Media: Pia Behmuaras: LinkedIn Tyler Gates: LinkedIn / Twitter Sophia Moshasha: LinkedIn / Twitter VRARA DC: LinkedIn / Twitter Subscribe to the podcast wherever podcasts are found or listen to past interviews at www.TheVRARA.com/podcast Do you have an interest in being a guest on our podcast or have a guest recommendation? Email vicki@thevrara.com and let us know! Visit the VR/AR Association at www.TheVRARA.com for more information about how you can get involved with this worldwide organization to help gain exposure and share ideas and best practices with other experts in the industry. The Everything VR/AR Podcast is produced & sponsored by the DC Chapter of VRARA, in conjunction with Brightline Interactive.
City of Portland workers end their strike. Oregon's labor crunch is easing. Portland Winter Light Festival illuminates the night sky. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Eli Lifland on Navigating the AI Alignment Landscape, published by Ozzie Gooen on February 1, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Recently I had a conversation with Eli Lifland about the AI Alignment landscape. Eli Lifland has been a forecaster at Samotsvety and has been investigating said landscape. I've known Eli for the last 8 months or so, and have appreciated many of his takes on AI alignment strategy. This was my first recorded video, so there were a few issues, but I think most of it is understandable. Full (edited) transcript below. I suggest browsing the section titles for a better overview of our discussion. Transcript Sections Samotsvety, a Recent Forecasting Organization Reading, “Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?” Categories of AI Failures: Accident, Misuse, and Structural Who Is Making Strategic Progress on Alignment? Community Building: Arguments For Community Building: Fellowships and Mentorship Cruxes in the AI Alignment Space Crux: How Promising is AI Interpretability? Crux: Should We Use Narrow AIs to Help Solve Alignment? The Need for AI Alignment Benchmarks Crux: Conceptual Insights vs. Empirical Iteration Vehicles and Planes as Potential Metaphors Samotsvety, a Recent Forecasting Organization Ozzie Gooen: So to get started, I want to talk a little bit about Samotsvety. Eli Lifland: It's a Russian name. Samotsvety currently has about 15 forecasters. We've been releasing forecasts for the community on topics such as nuclear risk and AI. We're considering how to create forecasts for different clients and make public forecasts on existential risk, particularly AI. Team forecasting has been valuable, and I've encouraged more people to do it. We have a weekly call where we choose questions to discuss in advance. If people have time, they make their forecasts beforehand, and then we discuss the differences and debate. It's beneficial for team bonding, forming friendships, and potential future work collaborations. It's also interesting to see which forecasts are correct when they resolve. It's a good activity for different groups, such as AI community groups, to try. Ozzie Gooen: How many people are in the group right now? Eli Lifland: Right now, it's about 15, but on any given week, probably closer to five to ten can come. Initially, it was just us three. It was just Nuño, Misha, and I, and we would meet each weekend and discuss different questions on either Foretell (now INFER) or Good Judgment Open, but now it's five to ten people per week, from a total pool of 15 people. Ozzie Gooen: That makes sense. I know Samotsvety has worked on nuclear risk and a few other posts. What do you forecast when you're not working on those megaprojects? Eli Lifland: Yeah. We do a mix of things. Some things we've done for specific clients haven't been released publicly. Some things are still in progress and haven't been released yet. For example, we've been working on forecasting the level of AI existential risk for the Future Fund, now called the Open Philanthropy Worldview Prize, for the past 1-2 months. We meet each week to revise and discuss different ways to decompose the risk, but we haven't finished yet. Hopefully, we will. Sometimes we just choose a few interesting questions for discussion, even if we don't publish a write-up on them. Ozzie Gooen: So the idea is to have more people do very similar things, just like other teams are three to five, they're pretty independent; do you give them like coaching or anything? If I wanted to start my own group like this, what do I do? Eli Lifland: Feel free to reach out to any of us for advice on how we did it. As I mentioned, it was fairly simple—choosing and discussing questions each week. In terms of value, I believe it was valuable for all of us and many others who joined us. Some got more interested in effec...
The year gone by has proven to be an inflection point for Digital India. From Big Tech to the government, India's digitisation drive has received, or is poised to receive, a fillip in both innovation and regulation. 5G rolled out a red carpet of promises. And despite crypto's epic fail, Web 3.0 has emerged as THE watchword in tech innovation, with both start-ups and big techs flocking to the metaverse. How big was the year 2022 then, for tech in India? And what new frontiers can 2023 conquer? This podcast examines the source code.
Message by David Cole: Matthew 1 & 2
Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts, published by elifland on September 9, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Crossposted to LessWrong and Foxy Scout Introduction In my review of What We Owe The Future (WWOTF), I wrote: Finally, I've updated some based on my experience with Samotsvety forecasters when discussing AI risk. When we discussed the report on power-seeking AI, I expected tons of skepticism but in fact almost all forecasters seemed to give >=5% to disempowerment by power-seeking AI by 2070, with many giving >=10%. In the comments, Peter Wildeford asked: It looks like Samotsvety also forecasted AI timelines and AI takeover risk - are you willing and able to provide those numbers as well? We separately received a request from the FTX Foundation to forecast on 3 questions about AGI timelines and risk. I sent out surveys to get Samotsvety's up-to-date views on all 5 of these questions, and thought it would be valuable to share the forecasts publicly. A few of the headline aggregate forecasts are: 25% chance of misaligned AI takeover by 2100, barring pre-APS-AI catastrophe 81% chance of Transformative AI (TAI) by 2100, barring pre-TAI catastrophe 32% chance of AGI being developed in the next 20 years Forecasts In each case I aggregated forecasts by removing the single most extreme forecast on each end, then taking the geometric mean of odds. To reduce concerns of in-group bias to some extent, I calculated a separate aggregate for those who weren't highly-engaged EAs (HEAs) before joining Samotsvety. In most cases, these forecasters hadn't engaged with EA much at all; in one case the forecaster was aligned but not involved with the community. Several have gotten more involved with EA since joining Samotsvety. Unfortunately I'm unable to provide forecast rationales in this post due to forecaster time constraints, though I might in a future post. I provided my personal reasoning for relatively similar forecasts (35% AI takeover by 2100, 80% TAI by 2100) in my WWOTF review. WWOTF questions Aggregate (n=11) Aggregate, non-pre-Samotsvety-HEAs (n=5) Range What's your probability of misaligned AI takeover by 2100, barring pre-APS-AI catastrophe? 25% 14% 3-91.5% What's your probability of Transformative AI (TAI) by 2100, barring pre-TAI catastrophe? 81% 86% 45-99.5% FTX Foundation questions For the purposes of these questions, FTX Foundation defined AGI as roughly “AI systems that power a comparably profound transformation (in economic terms or otherwise) as would be achieved in [a world where cheap AI systems are fully substitutable for human labor]”. See here for the full definition used. Unlike the above questions, these are not conditioning on no pre-AGI/TAI catastrophe. Aggregate (n=1) Aggregate, non-pre-Samotsvety-HEAs (n=5) Range What's the probability of existential catastrophe from AI, conditional on AGI being developed by 2070? 38% 23% 4-98% What's the probability of AGI being developed in the next 20 years? 32% 26% 10-70% What's the probability of AGI being developed by 2100? 73% 77% 45-80% Who is Samotsvety Forecasting? Samotsvety Forecasting is a forecasting group that was started primarily by Misha Yagudin, Nuño Sempere, and myself predicting as a team on INFER (then Foretell). Over time, we invited more forecasters who had very strong track records of accuracy and sensible comments, mostly on Good Judgment Open but also a few from INFER and Metaculus. Some strong forecasters were added through social connections, which means the group is a bit more EA-skewed than it would be without these additions. A few Samotsvety forecasters are also superforecasters. How much do these forecasters know about AI? Most forecasters have at least read Joe Carlsmith's report on AI x-risk, Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?. Those who are short on time may have just skimme...
Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts, published by elifland on September 9, 2022 on LessWrong. Crossposted to EA Forum and Foxy Scout Introduction In my review of What We Owe The Future (WWOTF), I wrote: Finally, I've updated some based on my experience with Samotsvety forecasters when discussing AI risk. When we discussed the report on power-seeking AI, I expected tons of skepticism but in fact almost all forecasters seemed to give >=5% to disempowerment by power-seeking AI by 2070, with many giving >=10%. In the comments, Peter Wildeford asked: It looks like Samotsvety also forecasted AI timelines and AI takeover risk - are you willing and able to provide those numbers as well? We separately received a request from the FTX Foundation to forecast on 3 questions about AGI timelines and risk. I sent out surveys to get Samotsvety's up-to-date views on all 5 of these questions, and thought it would be valuable to share the forecasts publicly. A few of the headline aggregate forecasts are: 25% chance of misaligned AI takeover by 2100, barring pre-APS-AI catastrophe 81% chance of Transformative AI (TAI) by 2100, barring pre-TAI catastrophe 32% chance of AGI being developed in the next 20 years Forecasts In each case I aggregated forecasts by removing the single most extreme forecast on each end, then taking the geometric mean of odds. To reduce concerns of in-group bias to some extent, I calculated a separate aggregate for those who weren't highly-engaged EAs (HEAs) before joining Samotsvety. In most cases, these forecasters hadn't engaged with EA much at all; in one case the forecaster was aligned but not involved with the community. Several have gotten more involved with EA since joining Samotsvety. Unfortunately I'm unable to provide forecast rationales in this post due to forecaster time constraints, though I might in a future post. I provided my personal reasoning for relatively similar forecasts (35% AI takeover by 2100, 80% TAI by 2100) in my WWOTF review. WWOTF questions Aggregate (n=11) Aggregate, non-pre-Samotsvety-HEAs (n=5) Range What's your probability of misaligned AI takeover by 2100, barring pre-APS-AI catastrophe? 25% 14% 3-91.5% What's your probability of Transformative AI (TAI) by 2100, barring pre-TAI catastrophe? 81% 86% 45-99.5% FTX Foundation questions For the purposes of these questions, FTX Foundation defined AGI as roughly “AI systems that power a comparably profound transformation (in economic terms or otherwise) as would be achieved in [a world where cheap AI systems are fully substitutable for human labor]”. See here for the full definition used. Unlike the above questions, these are not conditioning on no pre-AGI/TAI catastrophe. Aggregate (n=11) Aggregate, non-pre-Samotsvety-HEAs (n=5) Range What's the probability of existential catastrophe from AI, conditional on AGI being developed by 2070? 38% 23% 4-98% What's the probability of AGI being developed in the next 20 years? 32% 26% 10-70% What's the probability of AGI being developed by 2100? 73% 77% 45-80% Who is Samotsvety Forecasting? Samotsvety Forecasting is a forecasting group that was started primarily by Misha Yagudin, Nuño Sempere, and myself predicting as a team on INFER (then Foretell). Over time, we invited more forecasters who had very strong track records of accuracy and sensible comments, mostly on Good Judgment Open but also a few from INFER and Metaculus. Some strong forecasters were added through social connections, which means the group is a bit more EA-skewed than it would be without these additions. A few Samotsvety forecasters are also superforecasters. How much do these forecasters know about AI? Most forecasters have at least read Joe Carlsmith's report on AI x-risk, Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?. Those who are short on time may have just skimmed the report and/or...
Has anyone ever defined you as psychic, telepathic, or clairvoyant based on something you said? Or have you described someone else that way based on a far-fetched prediction they made that came true? If so, (and assuming it didn't originate from a dark, creepy, or eerie source), then you'll find yourself in some impressive company.This episode features spot-on predictions made by celebrities from Colin Kaepernick to Bill Gates, and covers everything from deadly pandemics to famous people who predicted their deaths. You'll learn that life, death and even your career path really are in the power of the tongue.