Podcasts about conducttr

➡️ Watch the full interview ad-free, join a community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comThis is a conversation with Fabian Hoffman, a Doctoral Research Fellow at the University who's focusing on missiles of all kinds and he's been doing a fantastic job popularizing and explaining this quite niche topic on his Twitter and Substack. It's quite a sobering conversation. Missiles in general are becoming increasingly important part of warfare in conflicts from Ukraine to the Middle East and their importance is only gonna grow - and Fabian talks about why he believes that Europe is extremely unprepared for this - why it lacks both air defensive and offensive capabilities, why its falling miles behind Russia which has drastically increased its production and why he believes that Russia is actually stockpiling their missiles for a contingency of a war with NATO, rather than just using them in Ukraine. We also talk about how Israel's Iron Dome actually performed in its war with Iran, whether the plan for a golden dome that the Trump administration is planning to spend hundreds of billions of dollars makes sense, why Europe's air defense policy is completely wrong and it's never gonna work and much, much more. 

In Moscow's Shadows has crossed the 5 million downloads barrier! This happens to coincide with this being an episode in which I tackle Patrons' questions on everything from why Russians fight and Chinese legal and criminal influence in the Russian Far East through to who would play whom in the film 'Death of Putin', and my own impartiality. Enjoy!The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comThis is a conversation with Sir Lawrence Freedman, a legendary British historian of war, strategy and foreign policy and a frequent commentator on war and strategy of today, as well. I took this opportunity to sort of pick his brain on the main conflicts - starting in the Middle East and trying to understand whether Israel can consider the 12 day war against Iran a success, whether it made sense for the US to join in or what would he do now if he were the supreme leader in Tehran. And then we talk about the big picture in Ukraine. About why Russia is stuck fighting the war with no real good way out, whether we will see a negotiated settlement and what it might look or whether the result will be decided on the battlefield, how long can the war possibly go on or why drones are not really the future of war the way we think they are. 

In one corner, Azerbaijan's Ilhan Aliev, in the other, Russia's Vladimir Putin, two autocrats locked in an increasingly acrimonious political conflict sparked by, of all things, the arrest of some gangsters in Ekaterinburg. But it's bigger than that, and I locate the conflict in the context of Russia's receding role as regional hegemon, the politics of personalised authoritarianisms, and the agency and agendas of low-level political actors.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comThis is a conversation with George Barros from the Institute for the Study of War who leads a team that has been monitoring and reporting on the war in Ukraine every day for the past 3 and half years. I freely admit that I did not expect the war to last nearly as long as it has and so we talk about how long it can realistically go on, when does George expect it end and what is the most likely scenario in which that happens. We talk about what reaching 1 million casualties actually mean for Russia, how sustainable is for Russia to keep this rate of losses, what are the main pressures on its war effort and what's likely to break first - or why the narrative of the Russian infinite manpower pool is a myth. Or how sustainable all of this is for Ukraine and whether Ukraine can afford to fight this way for years to come. 

After some thoughts about the recent NATO summit in The Hague, I focus on the perennial challenge of corruption. Even Russian officials are admitting it is again on the rise, and becoming more predatory, While there is a regular litany of middle-ranking officials charged and sentenced, there is no political will to tackle grand corruption at the top of the system -- and declining capacity to combat its resurgence at the bottom. What does all this mean for the system?The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comThis is a second part of the conversation with Sarah Paine, a professor of History and Grand Strategy at the U.S. Naval War College. You can find the first part on Youtube and other podcasting platforms.

There is a range of serious practical problems that an end to the war in Ukraine -- whenever that may be -- will pose for the Kremlin. However, if the Soviet war in Afghanistan is any comparison, arguably every bit as important will be the narratives, how people frame the war and use it to attack or defend Putin's regime. I feel this is a political challenge they are not well suited to master.My report Trouble at home: Russia's looming demobilization challenge can be downloaded from the Global Initiative site here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comThis is a conversation with Zineb Riboua, a Middle East expert and a research fellow at the Hudson Institute's Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East - about the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. We talk about what are really the Israeli goals with this operation, whether they can succeed in completely destroying Iranian nuclear weapons ambitions or how much damage they already did. About what has been the role of the Trump administration and whether Trump was in on this from the start or if he's now just trying to take credit - whether Israel is really pursuing a regime change and how likely that is or how vulnerable is Iran to a domestic coup, revolution and what the most likely scenarios are. And about much, much more.

➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comThis is a conversation with Christopher Kirschoff. Chris founded and led the Defense Innovation Unit, also known as Unit X - an organisation within the Pentagon tasked with finding the most innovative emerging technology - anything from flying cars to microsatellites - and implementing it into the military. That makes him a unique person to talk to about where this innovation is going but also about why is it often so hard for governments to keep up with pace of technology and why organisations like governments and militaries often fight against innovation rather than embracing it - or how do the United States, Europe, China or Russia compare in their ability to innovate and who's winning the new tech race of today.

In the first half, I explore what the eruption of open conflict between Israel and Iran means for Russia. Will Putin be tempted to throw Iran under the bus? He certainly has much more scope and reason to do so than in 2022-24.In the second half, I climb onto my soapbox to consider -- criticise -- some recent rhetoric about the Russian threat and bemoan the lack of dialogue, especially military-to-military contacts, with praise for the wargame Littoral Commander: the Baltics (Dietz Foundation) and David Fields & Robert Avery's book The Royal And Russian Navies. Cooperation, Competition & Confrontation (Manchester UP). The Spectator piece I mentioned is here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comThere's probably no other bilateral relationship in global politics today that is as significant—and draws as much speculation—as the partnership between Russia and China. Together, these two countries might be capable of reshaping the global order, challenging the U.S. dominance, and influencing almost every global geopolitical issue. But there's still a lot of questions about what actually drives their cooperation, how deep or shallow their partnership truly is, and whether it's more likely to grow even closer or fall apart in the future. And so in this conversation, I speak with Elizabeth Wishnick, an expert on Sino-Russian relations and a researcher at the Center for Naval Analyses and at Columbia University. I try to understand how do the two countries actually see each other: what does China think about the war in Ukraine, whether Russia was expecting more help from China in the war, what would Russia do in case of a war over Taiwan, or  whether the West can succeed in driving a wedge between them and much more.

A pervasive argument is that for reasons personal, political or economic, Putin simply cannot afford to end his war: that he needs the excuse for tyranny, or that his economy would stagnate. I dig into these and other claims, and - spoiler alert - conclude that Putin could certainly afford to end the war... but that there are enough challenges to peace that he may not dare to.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comWith the war in Ukraine still ongoing, it's not surprising that conventional warfare usually dominates the headlines but underneath this traditional battlefield there are other types of conflict taking place as well that are a lot more quiet but just as consequential. From covert influence operations, proxy militias to economic pressure and cyberattacks, countries like Iran, Russia, and China have become extremely good at waging wars that don't look like wars in the traditional sense. But that can be just as powerful and sometimes even more effective. And while this kind of warfare isn't new, it feels like we've entered a golden age of it.And so in this conversation, I spoke with Seth Jones, Director of the International Security Program at CSIS, and one of the leading experts on irregular warfare on the different tactics and strategies of the three leading hybrid warfare powers —Iran, Russia, and China. We discuss the strengths and vulnerabilities of each country's approach, the effectiveness of their influence operations, why the U.S. seems to lag behind in this area or what role hybrid warfare plays in the war in Ukraine and much more.

An IMS on a Thursday? Although I'm still not quite yet over the cold that stopped me recording on Sunday, as I can't record next Sunday, needs must...In the first part, I look at recent development around Ukraine. Then, in the second, I look at the recent 'electoral wargame' held by Conducttr and spin off that more broadly to consider the challenges of 'resiliency' in a political sense (rather than infrastructure, etc)Robert Hall's book is here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comIn the current war in Ukraine, there is likely no other topic that would be both so important and so wildly misunderstood as the issue of the Russian economy. The importance is quite obvious - without a functioning economy, Russia wouldn't be able to finance the war. But in terms of how the economy is actually doing and how will it do in the future, that's much less clear - and the views range from Russian economy being an unstoppable juggernaut with sanctions only making it stronger to the Russian economy collapsing since the first day of the war - neither of which are actually accurate. After all, most people are not economists and this is largely an unprecedented situation.And so, I decided to speak with someone who both knows more about this than anyone else and who is able to give a very pragmatic and objective view of where we stand: an expert on the Russian economy Janis Kluge, from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. And so in this conversation, we talk about how the Russian economy is actually doing. How long can Russia actually afford to finance the war, what kind of economic damage it would take to force to rethink its plan for Ukraine and whether that is likely to happen, whether the Russian economy is overheating and what does that really mean or what would happen if the war ends and the money stops flowing into the economy - and whether the Russian government can afford that.

Negotiations (of a sort) in Istanbul: a real engagement or just a piece of theatre? The answer, of course, is a bit of both.And what can one read into the elevation of Colonel General Mordvichev as the new commander of Russian Ground Forces?The link to the Conducttr wargame I mention is here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

This is a conversation with Mujtaba Rahman. Mij is what you would call an insider of European politics. He leads the European section of the Eurasia Group and a big part of his job is to know what is going on behind the scenes, not just what you can read in the news but what European leaders really think, say and do when there are no cameras. And so it was a perfect opportunity to dive deep into European politics. We talked about whether Europe has a strategy for what do with Ukraine and Russia, what do European leaders really think about Donald Trump behind closed doors and how are they already preparing for Europe without the U.S. Or how likely is it that anti-establishment politicians in France, UK or Germany will dominate elections in the coming years and completely turn all those policies upside down. I think it's a fascinating conversation and it's always a pleasure to talk to someone who knows so much. ➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.com

The 200th episode! Hard to believe.After briefly assessing Putin's late-night offer of talks with Kyiv, I dig into the Victory Day parade and what it means, especially from an international angle, and how it was part of a love letter to Xi Jinping.The events I mentioned next week in Prague are at CEVRO University, the Institute of International Relations and the Prague Book Festival, with the launch of Zrozeni z Války, the Czech translation of my book Forged in War.The forthcoming events page on my blog is here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comThis is a conversation with Anschel Pfeffer, a veteran journalist and the correspondent for the Economist based in Israel. And in this conversation, we talk about two things. About Israel's changing foreign policy - why is it growing increasingly expansionist, how has it fundamentally changed since the October 7th, whether Israel will attack Iran, why the Israeli military is starting to be dangerously overstretched or why the Trump-Netenyahu bromance is already over.But before we get to that, we dive quite deep into what's increasingly shaping Israel's foreign policy - its domestic political crisis, growing societal polarization and what Anschel calls an "existential crisis". 

General Ivan Popov, once hailed as one of the heroes and rising stars of the Russian army, has just been sentenced to 5 years in a general regime penal colony on what seem questionable charges. What brought down this 'fighting general' -- and what does it tell us about late Putinism and the potential nationalist critique of the regime?The sign-up page for the Conducttr info-political wargame I mentioned is here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comThis is a conversation with Justin Bronk - a military aviation expert and a Senior Research Fellow at RUSI. We dive deep into the recently revealed American and Chinese 6th generation fighter jets - how will they change warfare and who's ahead in this race for air dominance, and whether Europe and Russia could catch up. And how other technologies like collaborative combat aircraft - basically swarms of drones flying together with planes piloted by humans - are going to change what air combat has looked like for decades.

In the first half, I consider the latest twists in the saga of the US-pushed 'ceasefire' plan. Has Trump has an epiphany in the Vatican, or will Kyiv still face a choice of evils?In the second, I draw a line between the gunning down of a mobster in Tbilisi with the twilight of Putinism, through leaking roofs and the likelihood of mob wars.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comThis is a conversation with Professor Sarah C.M. Paine—one of the sharpest minds on grand strategy and on how great powers rise and fall. We talk about why Russia, China, and even the U.S. often misunderstand their own strengths, repeat the same strategic mistakes, and ultimately sabotage themselves from within. If you want to understand why grand strategy fails, and what that means for the next decade of global competition, this one's worth your time.

An intemperate recent interview from Foreign Minister Lavrov, at which he warned that 'fifth columnists' within the elite wanted to hand Russia to the West on a platter, is typical of a new tome of populist nationalism that got me wondering. Putin's Russia is often called 'fascist' but this is a label of dubious accuracy. Are there hints that Russia could turn fascist? I still think this will not happen, but it is something worth exploring.The Bell, by the way, is here. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comThis is a conversation with Mark Galeotti - a Russia expert and one of the most respected and interesting voices to listen to when it comes to anything Russian. In this conversation, we talk about the ongoing U.S.-Russian negotiations - whether Putin would actually accept a peace deal, what do Russian want to actually get out of it and why are they able to manipulate their American counterparts. And also, why 2026 will be a very painful year for Russia or why the Russian sabotage campaign in Europe might backfire.

In the first half, I look at developments regarding Ukraine (I'm getting more sceptical about Putin's interest in a deal) and profile former FSB general Sergei Beseda, 'the Baron.'In the second half, for Cosmonautics Day, I look at the ailing Russian space programme.The FPRI report by Pavel Luzin I mention is here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

A bonus second batch of questions, relating to war, peace and my attitudes to social media!The CASE survey of emigre attitudes is here.The RUSI commentary on the OSCE is here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comThis is a conversation with Edward Arnold, a Research Fellow at RUSI and one of the clearest voices on European defense today. For decades, Europe's security has relied on the assumption that the United States would always be there to lead, to help, and to fight if needed. But that assumption is quickly eroding and regardless of who sits in the White House, it's becoming clear that Europe will have to rely more on itself.In this conversation, I wanted to explore what that actually means in practice. I asked Ed three big questions: First, what's broken in Europe's current defense architecture that prevents it from standing on its own? Second, what would a credible, self-reliant European defense actually look like? And third, what kinds of reforms and political will would be needed to get there and whether we are on the right path.

Comrades! Forgive the tedious title, but this episode is the first of two answering questions set by my esteemed Patrons, covering Russian domestic and foreign policy, with another to follow covering the war and more. Climate change and oligarchic rivalry, Belarusian cunning and Central Asian balancing, all this and a lot more...The Washington Post article ‘Art of dissent: How Russians protest the war on Ukraine' is here.The National Guard report I mention, Putin's Praetorians: The Evolving Role Of The National Guard And Their Capacity To Control The Streets , is here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comThis is a conversation with Keir Giles, one of the leading experts on Russia and European security, and a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House. Keir has spent decades studying Russia, its military strategy, and how Europe has responded - or failed to respond - to the growing threat from the East.In this episode, I wanted to explore three main questions: First, how grave and imminent the Russian threat to Europe actually is. Second, whether Europe is truly prepared for war if it comes to that. And third, what happens if the U.S. pulls back from European defense and Europe has to fend for itself.

One, I suspect, more for the wonks. I dig into Prime Minister Mishustin's lengthy and not-so-exciting annual report to parliament, and the responses from the 'opposition' for what is said, and what's not.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comThis is a conversation with Kateryna Bondar, a Ukrainian expert on emerging military technology, a former advisor of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense and a Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.When people talk about the role of technology in the war in Ukraine, it usually doesn't feel like that much new development is happening - after all, we have been seeing drones in the war for over 3 years. But the reality is actually the opposite - the war in Ukraine is quickly becoming a lot more futuristic than I personally realized and technology that's already being deployed and tested on the battlefield every day, is something that most people would have probably thought is many years away. Whether that's major attacks carried out only by unmanned vehicles, fully autonomous drones or the Ukrainian ambition of fully replacing human soldiers with robots - those are things that sound unreal but already happening. War is literally changing in front of our eyes and the change is getting faster. This conversation, will hopefully make it seem a bit more real and show what the already futuristic present and very near future looks like.

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has suggested Ukraine should be allowed into the EU on 1 January 2030 (by which time the war will be over or frozen...). What if it could be in months not years? It won't happen, for all kinds of reasons, but let's entertain it as a 'what if?' thought experiment.PS: I got my digits muddled: it's Article 42, clause 7 of the Treaty if Europe I ment, not 47(7).In the second half, I look at three recent deeply-engaged eyewitness books on Ukraine:·       Battleground Ukraine by Adrian Karatnicky (Yale Up, 2024)·       Our Enemies Will Vanish by Yaroslav Trofimov (Michael Joseph 2024)·       I Will Show You How It Was by Illia Ponomarenko (Bloomsbury, 2024)The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

What shapes Russian foreign policy? I start by looking at the core issue of the moment, Moscow's thinking over the proposed ceasefire, then consider more broadly what kind of a bizarre and varied mix of institutions and individuals actually shape policy.The Sunday Times article I mention is here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comThis is a conversation with Franz-Stefan Gady, a military analyst and European security expert from the Institute for International Strategic Studies. We've had a lot to cover. From the developments on the battlefield in Ukraine and the reasons for the Ukrainian problems in Kursk to the impact of U.S. military aid cuts and how much of the U.S. aid could be replaced by Europe and what it would take. And although since Monday, March 10th when we recorded this episode, the ban on the U.S. aid has been lifted, it's still pretty interesting. Both because it explains how dependent Ukraine and Europe is on the U.S. equipment and because the American aid can be always taken away just as fast as it was now given back. But mostly we talked about Europe's security. About why Europe needs to decide how much it's actually willing to risk for Ukraine, what's the real problem with the potential European peacekeeping mission in Ukraine or why Europe is now at the beginning of a seismic shift - and why it's never going to be the same again. 

➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopoliticsCheck out The Counteroffensive: https://www.counteroffensive.news/➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comThis is a conversation with Tim Mak, a Ukraine-based journalist and a founder of The Counteroffensive - a new type of a media organisation trying to bring authentic reporting from the war and from Ukraine in general.  I spoke to Tim to learn about how everything that's been going on is being perceived in Ukraine - how is the Ukrainian government trying to work with the United States after they cut off its aid - what are their options and whether they have a strategy for what to do. And about the changes of the public opinion on peace deals and war negotiations or about the reality of the critical minerals deal negotiations and what is all that really about - and much more. 

Reflecting the chaotic and fast-moving nature of the times, another podcast of two parts. In the first, looking at various issues of the week, from Trump's apparent threat to increase sanctions on Russia to a spy case in the UK.In the second half, I look at two recent books, Political Legitimacy and Traditional Values in Putin's Russia, edited by Helge Blakkisrud & Pål Kolstø (Edinburgh UP) and Jeremy Morris's Everyday Politics in Russia. From Resentment to Resistance, (Bloomsbury) and use them to spin off a discussion about legitimacy in modern Russia.The piece ‘Recycling to resist,' I mentioned by Alexandrina Vanke, is in the Sociological Review here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.  Support the show

➡️ Join the community of geopolitics enthusiasts and gain access to exclusive content on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my free geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comThis is a conversation with Michael Beckley, a professor at Tufts University and a co-author of one the best books on China in recent years called the Danger Zone. In the book Michael made two big predictions: first, that China's economic model will run into major problems - which seems to be already happening - and result in the end of China's economic and political rise. And second, that this will make China much more dangerous and aggressive and make an invasion of Taiwan much more likely - which we still have to wait to see. In this conversation, I wanted to revisit those predictions with Michael to ask how does he see China's rise and decline today. Whether China's economic problems can be reversed, how are they changing Beijing's strategic calculus or how likely is a major war in the late 2020s. It's, in my view, one of the most interesting conversations I've had on the podcast so far - and I hope you will enjoy it as much as I did.

Much as I would love not to have to keep talking about Trump, it's inevitable that I cover the extraordinary events of this week: Trump as King Lear, demanding obsequious flattery, Zelensky perhaps ought not to have made the trip to DC. So where now?And in the second half, the Russian police in crisis, demoralised, under-strength and with corruption again on the rise. Another very real success story of early Putinism, police reform, being devoured by the war and late Putinism.The video of the Global Strategy Forum event I mentioned is here, the Sunday Times article (paywalled) is here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

➡️ Help to make the existence of Decoding Geopolitics possible by joining our community of geopolitics enthusiasts on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comThis is a conversation with Ronen Bergman. Ronen is a journalist at the New York Times based in Israel and an author of a unique book called Rise and Kill First about the history of Israeli state-sponsored targeted assassinations. Ronen spent years working on his research, digging into stuff that's almost entirely classified and he spoke with dozens of former and current members of Israeli military, intelligence services and government - getting access that is completely unprecedented despite the fact that Israeli government and Mossad tried to do everything they could to stop him from doing that. In this conversation how do you research something like that, where does the practice or state-sponsored assassinations originate, why does Israel use it more than perhaps any other nation, how do its representatives think about it, when and how did these operations literally rewrite history and whether they actually make Israel safer or not. And we also talk about the ethics and morals of all of that - because I don't want to be glorifying it and one of the reasons I liked the book was because Ronen doesn't do that either and he is an Israeli citizen who is very critical to his own country. And he, in my view, manages to stay objective, and critically analyze and evaluate what his own country does.

In a more-freeform-than usual episode, I consider the aftermath of the Munich Security Conference, why Trump is such a Putin fanboy (more about being a wannabe strongman than because of any kompromat), and what this means for peace in Ukraine. The summary? There is no deal on Ukraine, and we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves, but there is at least a chance for some kind of a deal. Maybe.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

➡️ Help to make the existence of Decoding Geopolitics possible by joining our community of geopolitics enthusiasts on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comThis is a conversation with Anne Applebaum, recorded at the Munich Security Conference. Anne is an American-Polish journalist and historian who has been writing on Russia and Eastern Europe for decades and whose insights I consider extremely valuable. In the conversation we talk about the big speech that J.D. Vance gave at the conference how Europe should respond to the increasingly unpredictable foreign policies of the United States. And we also talked about Russia and Ukraine, possible negotiations and the end of the war or if this will finally be the wake up call for Europe or whether we will remain asleep at the wheel. 

➡️ If you enjoy this podcast and you want to help to make its existence possible, join our community of geopolitics enthusiasts on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics➡️ Sign up to my geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.comThis is a conversation with Soner Cagaptay, the director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute and a leading expert on Turkish foreign policy.Turkey is an increasingly influential player in Africa, Middle East, Central Asia and Eastern Europe but at the same time, it's rise and its strategy are hugely overlooked and misunderstood. And so I spoke with Soner about exactly that. About what is Turkey's grand strategy and what is it trying to achieve, how it's becoming a major power in the Middle East, why is it both an enemy and a friend of Russia, why is it even in NATO when it doesn't seem to be aligned on a number of issues with the majority of its members or what's the risk of war between Greece and Turkey - and much more.

As Russia-watchers, we know that Russia is not just Russian, or Russian Orthodox, but there is also a glib assumption that to be Muslim or otherwise a minority is to be depressed, repressed, and suppressed. So how to explain Tatarstan, one of the few regions where the titular nationality is a majority (54% Tatar, 54% Muslim), yet one which seems to work well enough within the Russian Federation?The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

➡️ If you enjoy this podcast and you want to help to make its existence possible, join our community of geopolitics enthusiasts on PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingGeopolitics ➡️ Sign up to my geopolitics newsletter: https://stationzero.substack.com/ Thank you Conducttr for sponsoring the podcast. Take a look at Conducttr's services and its crisis exercise software at: https://www.conducttr.com This is a conversation with Hal Brands, a professor at Johns Hopkins University and one of the most influential and respected thinkers on U.S. foreign policy and global power dynamics of today. In this conversation, we talk about the return of geopolitics. About why are ideas about geopolitics that dominated the world a hundred years ago and that were at the beginning of all the great wars of the 20th century now making a comeback. And threaten to start other great wars in our time and define the 21st century as well. And whether and how, can it be prevented. 

The Russian response to Tucker Carlson's claim that the Biden administration tried to assassinate Putin has to a large extent been driven by political expediency -- it makes a great propaganda narrative -- but there does seem to be more to it than that? Why is modern Russia, from Putin down, so prone to seeing the world through a conspiratorial lens, everything determined by behind-the-scenes forces and shadowy secret masters? And what does this mean for policy? Does Russia really still own Alaska, was COVID brewed in Georgia, is Putin kept alive by Orthodox rituals? (Spoiler alert: no. no and no)The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

How else, frankly, to title an episode which covers Trump and Putin, the CIA's Ukrainian cooperation, Russo-Iranian and -Indian relations, Belarus, and four books on Crimea's history?The Vlad Vexler commentary I mentioned is here. The Moscow Times article on Russian-Indian relations is here.The four books I cover are:The Eurasian Steppe by Warwick Ball (Edinburgh University Press, 2021)'A Seditious and Sinister Tribe': the Crimean Tatars and their Khanate by Donald Rayfield (Reaktion, 2024)Crimea: a history by Neil Kent (Hurst, 2024)Crimean Quagmire: Tolstoi, Russell and the Birth of Modern Warfare by Gregory Carleton (Hurst, 2024)The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

The UK has signed a 'One Hundred Years Partnership Agreement' with Ukraine -- what's really involved under this grandiose title, and what does it show us about the wider challenges (and some missed opportunities) for supporting Kyiv?The texts are available here.The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show

We pundits have done more than our fair share speculating on whether, how, when and with what consequences there could be peace or a ceasefire in Ukraine, but instead it seems a good time to see what various research projects suggest about what ordinary Russians and Ukrainians think. This is something that is actually harder to ascertain than one might assume, but it important, not least for conditioning the decisions the respective governments may make.The various articles and surveys I cite are:Friedrich Ebert Stiftung : https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/wien/21742.pdfRussian Field : https://russianfield.com/svo16 Gallup : https://news.gallup.com/poll/653495/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspxMeduza : https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/01/09/we-expected-the-war-to-end PS Lab : https://publicsociologylab.com/enNew Yorker : https://www.newyorker.com/news/a-reporter-at-large/do-russians-really-support-the-war-in-ukraineVedomosti : https://www.vedomosti.ru/society/articles/2024/12/25/1083523-vnimanie-cherez-siluUkrainska Pravda : https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/articles/2025/01/9/7492626/Russia Post : https://russiapost.info/politics/ceasefire The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here. Support the show