In the Company of Mavericks

Supply is Measurable, Demand is Storytelling - Capital Cycle Investing with Django Davidson of Hosking Partners.  In his legendary book Capital Account, Chancellor said that:  Over the long run, it is a company's return on capital, not changes in quarterly earnings, which primarily determines the direction of its share price. The return on capital of any company is largely subject to the state of competition within its industry. Simple stuff, but this process happens in cycles; capital is attracted to higher returns and is withdrawn when returns fall. Critically, it is an approach to investing that focuses on supply conditions rather than expected but uncertain future demand.  So, as capital cycle investing came into prominence during the dotcom boom and bust, it is unsurprisingly making a comeback today. And it is Django's view that we are in the early phases of a new long-term capital cycle, and the world, as he sees it, has some huge valuation discrepancies to unwind. We had a fascinating chat.  

The monetary metals, gold and silver and so-called digital gold, or Bitcoin, have had an unusual few months.   As recently as September last year, the gold price was $3,500/oz, silver was $40/oz, and a Bitcoin was priced at around $110,000. Since then Gold rose by over 50% to $5,400 / oz before correcting to $5,000 / oz or up 40%; silver rose nearly 200% to $115 / oz before correcting to $80/oz up 90% and while all this was going on the price of Bitcoin more than halved peak to trough before stabilising down 40% at c $70,000. So, why the volatility spike? What just happened to the debasement trade? Has the newly nominated Fed Chair changed everything? Is AI or quantum computing about to kill Bitcoin? Is the FT right? Is the Bitcoin price still $70, 000 too high?    To help dig into what we have just experienced, I was joined last week by two friends of the pod and long-term advocates of precious metals and Bitcoin, so-called outside money, to try to better understand the drivers behind these volatile asset prices and how to assess where things might go from here. Dominic Frisby, of the Flying Frisby Substack, has written books on Bitcoin and gold, and multi-asset manager Charlie Morris of ByteTree is the founder of the BOLD (Bitcoin & Gold) Fund, which recently launched on the London Stock Exchange. It was a timely discussion in which we tried to dissect the different drivers of these asset prices and what has changed as a result of these dramatic moves. But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but just for your information and hopefully entertainment too. You should seek personal financial advice and do your own research before investing a penny in these crazy markets.         And with that said, please enjoy my conversation with Dominic Frisby and Charlie Morris. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.  

Last week, I spoke with two longstanding advocates of outside money and the debasement trade: wealth manager Charlie Morris, the founder of the BOLD (Bitcoin and gold fund) and author, Substacker and all-round renaissance man, Dominic Frisby.My question to them was: WTF is happening to gold, silver, and Bitcoin, and following their extraordinary price actions over recent months, where to now? Please subscribe to ITCOM, where you listen to your podcasts, so you don't miss the full episode later this week, along with other great guests and topics lined up over the coming weeks. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.   

Davos Man, The Revelation & Capital RotationFor this episode, I chat with Roger Lee, Head of Equity Strategy at Cavendish and a City veteran with almost 30 years in the equity market. Roger started his broking career with Cazenove, then worked at HSBC James Capel, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and, most recently, as Head of UK Equity Strategy at Investec.   Roger is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants, a Physics graduate and a frustrated Politician.For this discussion, I wanted to talk to Roger about politics and how it has come to dominate markets over recent years. He puts today's seemingly chaotic geopolitics and rather depressing UK domestic politics into a useful historical context. It was an absorbing and illuminating chat with some suggestions on how markets might play out over the coming months. But as ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice; it is for your information and, hopefully, entertainment. Please seek personal financial advice and DYOR before investing a penny in these volatile markets.  And with that said, please enjoy my conversation with Roger Lee.  Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

I spoke last week with Roger Lee, Market Strategist at London broker, Cavendish.We had a great conversation, sharing views on how politics have impacted markets over the span of our professional careers. Particularly we discuss how we are in revelationary era for Davos Man, the global elite and the interests of the ordinary man. And how the West can no longer afford the cost of the state. Roger talks about his ideas of how Trump's policy volatility and the impact of the AI card cycle has and will continue to impact financial markets.Dropping soon on all good podcast apps. If you want to listen to this and future episodes, be sure to subscribe to In The Company of Mavericks. 

Simple But Not Easy– The Investment Wisdom of Richard OldfieldRichard Oldfield, Founder of Oldfield Partners and author of Simple But Not Easy. We discuss the psychology of value investing, the structural flaws of modern asset management, and the challenges of navigating the bifurcated markets of the mid-2020s.Episode OverviewIn this episode, veteran investor Richard Oldfield debunks myths about the finance industry, arguing that successful investing is "simple but not easy." Drawing on decades of experience—from the 1970s inflation era to the AI boom of 2025—Oldfield explains why value investing is a character trait rather than a learned skill, why "doing nothing" is often the best strategy in a crisis, and why investors should treat the stock market like a casino where the odds vary wildly depending on which "table" you sit at.Key TakeawaysValue Investing is In the Blood. Oldfield argues that true value investors are born, not made. It requires a contrarian temperament that naturally gravitates toward unloved assets—a trait that is "simple" to understand but psychologically challenging ("not easy") to execute.Growth vs. Value. Oldfield believes value provides a "margin of safety" that prevents the ground from opening up beneath you, as it does with growth stocks. He discusses his view of an exciting future for value versus growth. Index Hugging. Oldfield is a fierce critic of large asset management firms, arguing they inevitably drift toward mediocrity and "index hugging" (mimicking the market to avoid being fired). He advocates small, independent firms that can maintain "distance" from the noise of Wall Street and the City, enabling independent thought.A Checklist for Selecting Managers: When choosing a fund manager, Oldfield warns against relying on past performance, calling it a "trap". Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

A preview of the upcoming episode of In the Company of Mavericks, Simple But Not Easy with Richard Oldfield. Hosted by Jeremy McKeown, this podcast series delivers conversations with people who dare to be different. Listen to this trailer and follow now to catch the full release and other exciting content on its way to your ears. 

In this episode, we move beyond the typical hype surrounding cryptocurrency and digital assets to dissect the plumbing of the global financial system. To do this, we have a panel of industry insiders:You will hear from Steve Whyman, who previously ran Fidelity International's debt capital markets business, where he built their investment thesis for digital assets from scratch. Joining him is Ian Hunt, a 40-year veteran of the buy-side who designed the very first ledger for a tokenised fund launched in the UK market. Rounding out the panel is Marvin, an economist and returning "friend of the pod," who brings his critical geopolitical lens to the discussion.Our guests argue that the current financial ecosystem is not just inefficient, but fundamentally "absurd", filled with intermediaries that add cost without adding value. They contend that we are standing at a precipice: we can either "retool" old processes with new tech, or undergo a paradigm shift toward "composability"—a system in which smart contracts self-execute and assets are built from the ground up as tokens.This conversation goes far beyond technical theory.The panel explores:• How tokenisation will democratise wealth, allowing individuals to invest mere pence into equities, bonds, and private assets.• The massive geopolitical threat to London's dominance, as self-executing contracts may remove the need for English Common Law in global debt markets.• How the rise of US-backed stablecoins could act as a foreign policy tool to counter China and destabilise economies in the Global South.Stay tuned until the end for an existential risk to the Euro and the European Union: a flight to digital dollars could trigger a major liquidity crisis.

Coming soon, we explore how tokenisation is set to revolutionise the global economy.Joined by "friend of the pod" Marvin Barth of Seriously, Marvin? and Thematic Markets, we chat with digital assets specialists Dr Ian Hunt and Steve Whyman.  We expose the "absurd" complexity and cost added by traditional intermediaries in the financial sector. Discover how blockchain technology acts as the ultimate disintermediator, democratising access to markets by allowing individuals to invest mere pence into equities, bonds, and private asset funds.We dive into:• The geopolitical impact of self-executing contracts, reducing reliance on traditional jurisdictions like the UK for global transactions.• The rise of dollarised stablecoin economies in emerging markets such as Venezuela, Nigeria, and Argentina.• Critical predictions regarding the potential "end of the European Union" and financial events that could make the Silicon Valley Bank collapse look minor by comparison.Tune in to understand why financial markets designed for intermediation are facing a huge disruptive test. Keywords: Tokenisation, Blockchain, Fintech, Disintermediation, Stablecoins, Global Economics, Investment, Smart Contracts.Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Is silver's price spike a bubble, or an early warning of government confiscation for AI data centres and military needs? Craig Tindale, Australian investor and essayist, argues the West has lost touch with the physical economy — and national capitalism is our only path back.In this episode:• Why Craig sees silver regulation or confiscation coming, or where we rip out solar panels for their silver content. • How Western policy has detached from real-world physics• Lessons from 40 years of upgrading Asian manufacturing, banks & central banks• Why “national capitalism” is the West's last hope• The real economic operating system we've forgottenTimestamps:0:00 – Intro & Craig's background4:44 – The West's detachment from physical reality12:24 – Silver: not a bubble, but a strategic signal20:26 – National capitalism vs globalism29.04 – Lessons from Asia's economic transformation38:03 – Final thoughts & provocative outlookFor information & entertainment only – not financial advice. Always do your own research or consult a professional before investing.Did you enjoy this? If so, please leave a 5-star review — it really helps the show reach more listeners! Subscribe for weekly deep dives into markets, economics and the investment world.Brought to you by Progressive Equity.  

According to Australian investor and essayist Craig Tindale, we are in an era of Hard Bifurcation, a terminal rupture between the monetary economy and the physical world. For forty years, Western orthodoxy has blythely assumed that financial liquidity and material goods were a unified system. But that linkage is dead, and we have entered a state of Impedance Mismatch.According to Tindale, Western policymakers must evolve their mandates to reflect the hard physics of strategic rivalry and material constraint. If we continue to manage the economy as a stateless financial abstraction, we will enter the next decade of great-power competition with an operating system designed for a world that no longer exists. Power belongs to the system that aligns its money with matter first.Please subscribe to make sure you get the full episode, dropping shortly. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

I recently caught up with Erik @ YWR, a widely experienced investment professional and popular Substacker.  Erik discusses his experience investing in Africa in the 20'teens and his involvement in what he calls Project Zimbabwe; don't think that we, in the West, are immune from our own versions of Project Zimbabwe. In Erik's view, we are, and counterintuitively, it partially explains Erik's current bullish stance on equities, with his framing of S&P 10,000 and how we can get there. He also shares how his investing process identifies sectors and markets at inflexion points, and he currently sees energy (specifically oil and gas) as poised to join the commodity rally underway in metals and rare earths. He also discusses how AI and robo-advisors might challenge the impact of passive investing on equity markets.   But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any type of advice; it's for your information and, hopefully, entertainment only. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. With that said, please enjoy my conversation with Erik @ YWR. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

I recently caught up with experienced investor and Substacker, Erik@YWR, to chat about the state of the markets and how he sees things for 2026. Erik has a unique perspective on what he calls Project Zimbabwe, which he experienced firsthand while running an African fund in the 2010s, and it enables him to be more bullish than most investors about his call for the S&P to reach 10,000 in this cycle. Erik's framework seeks out unloved areas of the markets and inflexion points to time his investments. He sees energy as offering such an opportunity at the moment. As he says, inflation-adjusted oil has rarely been cheaper. But of course, none of this is investment advice. Please take personal financial advice before investing in these crazy markets.Brought to you by Progressive Equity.    

What have the Austrians ever done for us?The answer is quite a lot, particularly regarding the importance of liberty and free markets, and how government overreach in economic matters results in long-term damage and decline.However, Carl Menger, Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich Hayek, and other members of the so-called Austrian School have long occupied a fringe position in conventional economic thought, and their ideas have been excluded from policymakers' toolkits, which are dominated by the Keynesian framework.But is this changing?The evidence suggests it might be. The growing interest in non-state-backed money, the rise of social media platforms such as Substack, which provide outlets for new ideas, and, significantly, the Milei Revolution, now underway in Argentina, all point to a renaissance in Austrian economics.   Javier Milei regards himself as an Austrian economist and cites, among others, Mises, Hayek and Murray Rothbard as his heroes, whose ideas changed his life. They may yet change the course of Argentina's history.So, I was honoured when Dr Mark Thornton of Auburn University and the Mises Institute agreed to join me for a discussion on the Austrian School and its growth since the early 1980s. At that time, we were both undergraduates reading works such as Hayek's The Road to Serfdom, von Mises' Human Action, and Rothbard's Man, Economy & State. And it turns out that we may have met previously, 45 years ago. It is sometimes a small world.   We had a great conversation in which Mark outlined his optimistic view of how Austrian ideas can help us understand the investment landscape, the broader significance of Milei's reform agenda, and our world where human action seeks opportunities in non-fiat money.Mark's published works include The Skyscraper Curse: How Austrian Economics Predicted Every Major Economic Crisis of the Last Century. Additionally, articles, digests, and podcasts from the Mises Institute, which provides extensive freely available content for those keen to learn more about the Austrian way of thinking and its growing relevance to our times. However, of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice but solely for your information and hopefully, entertainment. Please seek personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. With that said, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick Austrian economist, Dr Mark Thornton.Brought to you by Progressive Equity.   Hayek for the 21st Century: Essays in Political Economy/ Order a FREE copy of the book or multiple copies! Also, you can download the PDF and ePub versions using this link:  https://mises.org/library/book/hayek-21st-century-essays-political-economy 

What have the Austrians ever done for us? In terms of understanding the importance of liberty, free markets, and, particularly, how government overreach in economic matters results in long-term damage and decline, the answer is a lot. However, Carl Menger, Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich Hayek, and other members of the so-called Austrian School have long occupied a fringe position in conventional economic thought and have been largely excluded from policymakers' toolkits, which are dominated by Keynesian frameworks. But is this changing? The growing interest in non-state-backed money, the rise of social media, and the Milei Revolution underway in Argentina all suggest it is.   In particular, Javier Milei strongly aligns his worldview with that of the Austrian School and cites, among others, Mises, Hayek and Murray Rothbard as his philosophical heroes.I was honoured when Dr Mark Thornton of Auburn University and the Mises Institute agreed to join me for a discussion on the Austrian School and its growth since the early 1980s. At that time, we were both econ-undergraduates reading works such as Hayek's The Road to Serfdom, von Mises' Human Action, and Rothbard's Man, Economy & State.  We had a great conversation in which Mark outlined his optimistic view of how Austrian ideas can help us understand the investment landscape and the broader significance of Milei's reform agenda in Argentina. Mark's published works include The Skyscraper Curse: How Austrian Economics Predicted Every Major Economic Crisis of the Last Century.  I began by asking Mark about a former colleague of his at the Mises Institute, Roger Garrison. It turns out we might have attended the same Summer School that Roger taught 45 years ago. As they say, it's a small world. Please enjoy my conversation with the maverick Austrian economist, Dr Mark Thornton. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.    Hayek for the 21st Century: Essays in Political Economy/ Order a FREE copy of the book or multiple copies! Also, you can download the PDF and ePub versions using this link:  https://mises.org/library/book/hayek-21st-century-essays-political-economy    

I visited Buenos Aires in November last year.  I wanted to see firsthand what was going on under the newly elected President, Javier Milei. I met some fascinating people who shared their stories and perspectives on the Milei Revolution.  As I was researching an article about my visit, I read some early accounts of the rise of Milei and the stories told about him in 2022 and early 2023.  In the readers' comments section under a rather scathing article about him in the Buenos Aires Times, there was a short but forthright comment that explained why the reader thought Milei was likely to win the Presidency. It was from a reader named Jeffrey Stout, who seemed to be a lone voice in the comments section, taking this counter view.  I looked up Jeffrey on LinkedIn and asked him a couple of questions. It turned out Jeffrey was in BA and only a short walk from where I was staying, and the following day, he met me for lunch in the Argentinian November Spring sunshine.  Jeffrey, a successful businessman and US citizen, knew what he was talking about, and he kindly spent a couple of hours helping understand a few fundamentals of how things worked, or most often didn't work, in his adopted country.  12 months on, with the midterms out of the way, I reconnected with Jeffrey for an update on what had happened over the year since we met, and how he sees things shaping up. He kindly agreed to record this interview. And this is what he told me.  Please enjoy my conversation with Jeffrey Stout. Brought to you by Progressive Equity  

I visited Buenos Aires in November last year.  I wanted to see firsthand what was going on under the newly elected President, Javier Milei. I met some fascinating people who shared their stories and perspectives on the Milei Revolution.  As I was researching an article about my visit, I read some early accounts of the rise of Milei and the stories told about him in 2022 and early 2023.  In the readers' comments section under a rather scathing article about him in the Buenos Aires Times, there was a short but forthright comment that explained why the reader thought Milei was likely to win the Presidency. It was from a reader named Jeffrey Stout, who seemed to be a lone voice in the comments section, taking this counter view.  I looked up Jeffrey on LinkedIn and asked him a couple of questions. It turned out Jeffrey was in BA and only a short walk from where I was staying, and the following day he met me for lunch in the Argentinian November Spring sunshine.  Jeffrey, a successful businessman and US citizen, knew what he was talking about, and he kindly spent a couple of hours helping understand a few fundamentals of how things worked, or most often didn't work, in his adopted country.  12 months on, with the midterms out of the way, I reconnected with Jeffrey for an update on what had happened over the year since we met, and how he sees things shaping up. He kindly agreed to record this interview. And this is what he told me.  Please enjoy my conversation with Jeffrey Stout. Brought to you by Progressive Equity   

On the 27th of November, I had the good fortune to speak with a friend of the pod, Simon French, Head of Research at Panmure Liberum, and Thomas Moore, Senior Investment Director at Aberdeen, to discuss the UK Budget and its implications.  Simon, who writes a regular column in the Times, is a go-to person on the UK economy, and Thomas is steeped in experience and understanding of the value and income attractions of UK equities, with a long and successful track record of managing the Aberdeen Equity Income Trust.    We had a great chat and distinguished the essential differences between the UK economy and the UK market. But also at the risk of mansplaining, they also identified what more needs to be done for the UK economy to deliver growth and, importantly, to make UK assets more attractive to global capital.  But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but just for your information and hopefully entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money into these crazy markets.  And with that said, please enjoy my conversation with Simon French and Thomas Moore.  Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

Get ready for a touch of mansplaining as Simon French of Panmure Liberum and Thomas Moore of Aberdeen discuss the Budget and its implications for UK equities. Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

A few weeks ago, friend of the pod, Mark Wharrier, and I were invited to the 6th-anniversary party for the fund manager, Kernow Asset Management. CEO Ed Hugo and CIO Alyx Wood have featured on previous episodes.But today, Mark and I chat with Alyx about his approach to the UK, why he finds it an attractive market with his active contrarian long-short strategy, and which ideas he is currently most interested in and invested in. We had a great discussion, with Mark sharing his valuable perspective as a successful UK equity fund manager over many years, and Alyx talking about his investment process, the lessons he has learnt, and why he is now unemployable elsewhere, given how much fun he derives from doing what he is doing. But as ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but just for your information and hopefully entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money into these crazy markets.With that, please enjoy our conversation with Alyx Wood.        Brought to you by Progressive Equity.  

I increasingly believe that to invest in today's markets, one needs a macroeconomic framework. Pure momentum or valuation approaches are insufficient. I have been keen to talk with people who understand the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape we operate in and have mental models for using these dynamics to increase the likelihood of identifying risk asymmetries. Two of my guests this year from the world of global thematic investing, David Dredge and Marvin Barth, both cited Mark Farrington as someone they refer to for insight, particularly on developments in Asia. Mark Farrington writes about global thematic investing in his Watchtower series on Substack: The Global Watchtower, The Dollar Watchtower, and the BoJ Watchtower. Mark is as prolific as he is insightful. It was a great pleasure to catch up with Mark for a fascinating conversation about his experience and learnings from a long career following developments in Asia —from the rise of Japan in the 70s and 80s to its lost decade and the rise of China. In particular, I was keen to ask Mark whether Japan can normalise its monetary policy without collapsing the global financial system. Will China follow Japan into a lost decade of debt deflation? And how poorly understood Asian markets might impact our economies and financial markets in a new world order marked by the reassertion of economic nationalism. Mark delivered a masterclass of the how's and why's of global thematic investing, it is an episode that should have a long shelf life.  It is one of those episodes that I have learnt more from each time I have listened to it. But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice; it's just for your information and entertainment. Please seek personal financial advice before investing a penny in these crazy markets. With that, please enjoy my conversation with global thematic investor Mark Farrington.Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

I increasingly believe that to invest in today's markets, one needs a macroeconomic framework. Pure momentum or valuation approaches are insufficient. I have been keen to talk with people who understand the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape we operate in and have mental models for using these dynamics to increase the likelihood of identifying risk asymmetries. Two of my guests this year from the world of global thematic investing, David Dredge and Marvin Barth, both cited Mark Farrington as someone they refer to for insight, particularly on developments in Asia. Mark Farrington writes about global thematic investing in his Watchtower series on Substack: The Global Watchtower, The Dollar Watchtower, and the BoJ Watchtower. Mark is as prolific as he is insightful. It was a great pleasure to catch up with Mark for a fascinating conversation about his experience and learnings from a long career following developments in Asia —from the rise of Japan in the 70s and 80s to its lost decade and the rise of China. In particular, I was keen to ask Mark whether Japan can normalise its monetary policy without collapsing the global financial system. Will China follow Japan into a lost decade of debt deflation? And how poorly understood Asian markets might impact our economies and financial markets in a new world order marked by the reassertion of economic nationalism. Mark delivered a masterclass of the how's and why's of global thematic investing, it is an episode that should have a long shelf life.  It is one of those episodes that I have learnt more from each time I have listened to it. But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice; it's just for your information and entertainment. Please seek personal financial advice before investing a penny in these crazy markets. With that, please enjoy my conversation with global thematic investor Mark Farrington. Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

As Keir Starmer and Ed Miliband return from COP30 in Brazil, I wanted to take a look at the UK's energy policy amid a global backdrop suggesting the world is turning away from net-zero absolutism towards more human-centric policy options. The Overton window on energy policy is being pushed aside by the likes of Tony Blair, Bill Gates, and, significantly, by the lobbying interests of big technology, and resource nationalism is being reasserted. In the run-up to the next General Election, the UK's energy policy will form a key battleground, and in particular, our sky-high energy prices and the future of our North Sea hydrocarbons industry will be critical factors in the debate.  So, I was delighted to be joined, last week, by Kathryn Porter, Watt Logic energy consultant and Telegraph columnist, and Martin Copeland Chief Financial Officer of North Sea oil and gas operator, Serica Energy for a discussion about the UK's energy policy and the future of the North Sea, for a hugely insightful conversation. While we covered a lot of ground, the key question is whether the UK is prepared to sacrifice its North Sea oil and gas industry to the god of net-zero. While it has already been severely damaged, it is not too late for government policy to save the jobs and energy reserves at stake, but action is needed in the upcoming Budget. This significant event could mark a turning point for an industry on the brink of destruction from the irrational pursuit of territorial net-zero at all costs. As ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but hopefully you will find it both entertaining and informative. Please seek personal financial advice before investing a penny in these crazy markets. And with that said, please enjoy my conversation with Kathryn Porter and Martin Copeland. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

As COP delegates use a road cut through the Amazon to attend a gathering of people who tell us we need to make sacrifices to protect the planet, the wider world is pivoting away from climate alarmism toward more human-centric policy choices. UK energy policy is becoming a critical political battleground ahead of the next election, and the North Sea hydrocarbon industry is a focal point. As Professor Sir Dieter Helm said this week in the Times, "Global climate change won't be mitigated by halting licences in the UK's sector of the North Sea and instead importing oil and gas from elsewhere (including the Norwegian sector). Replacing North Sea gas with American LNG is environmentally much worse than “home-grown” gas. It also just makes the balance of payments worse, alongside all the imported gas from Norway and the imported electricity from Europe."I recently spoke to Watt Energy consultant Kathryn Porter and Serica Energy plc CFO Martin Copeland to discuss this very issue. How long do we have to save the North Sea from this ideologically riven madness? What steps do we need to take to fix our astronomically high energy costs? Is the UK prepared to sacrifice its hydrocarbon industry to the gods of net-zero? Coming soon, In The Company of Mavericks, on all good podcast apps ...Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

What's happening to gold?  Is the so-called debasement trade over? Have we just seen another FOMO driven momentum bubble hit a blowout top?Is that it for another decade? Of course, a bubble is a bull market that we are not involved in, and from the outside, the recent frenzy over gold is just another case of market hysteria, right? Conspiracy theories like the dollar debasement are just, well, conspiracy theories, right? This week I invited two long standing and respected sound money advocates to share their thoughts on gold, where it came from, where it might be heading and why. We had a great chat.  Dominic Frisby has recently published his latest book, The Secret History of Gold: Myth, Money, Politics & Power and is also the man behind the excellent Flying Frisby Substack … Wealth manager Tim Price of Price Value Partners is also the author of Investing Through the Looking Glass, a rational guide to irrational financial markets.  We discussed why gold is valuable, why the gold price has recently been so strong and how investors should think about gold as an investment asset class in a world of government deficits, spiralling debt and uncertain geopoliticsBut as ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice; hopefully, it is informative and entertaining. Please take professional advice before investing a penny in these crazy markets. And with that, please enjoy my conversation with Dominic Frisby and Tim Price    Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

Earlier this week, I chatted with Dominic Frisby of the Flying Frisby and Tim Price of Price Value Partners to talk about gold and related issues. I asked them: Is the fiat debasement inevitable? Should we be buying the dip in precious metals prices? And much, much more ....Don't miss it. Make sure you are subscribed, dropping soon on all good podcast apps.  Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

Two of my favourite Substackers, Doomberg and The Brawl Street Journal, have recently written about the future of Europe and its predicament in a rapidly changing world. And from their differing perspectives, they both agreed that it is not good. So, earlier this week I brought them together to share their views, one from the perspective of an experienced trade dispute lawyer and former policymaker in Berlin, the other a straight talking energy analyst and green chicken from his coop in mid-western American flyover country. We discussed the factors that have led Europe to its current position, its role in a multipolar world, and its struggles to adapt to these new, urgent realities.  I must warn you that the consequences they draw are not positive for Europe or its institutions, and they pull no punches in their delivery. In short, they agree that the consequences of current established European policies will likely lead to a collapse of the EU; a consequence of the delusion, incompetence and intransigence of its established political class.  But as always, nothing you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but solely for your information and hopefully entertainment. I began by asking each of them about the origins of the EU and how Europe got itself into the position it finds itself today.  Please enjoy my conversation with Doomberg and Brawlster. Brought to you by Progressive Equity 

Doomberg and The Brawl Street Journal have published pieces recently about the economic, political and financial predicament of Europe and the EU in our rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. Both argue that it doesn't look good. So, earlier this week, I brought them together to share their views. We discussed how we got here, the main factors, and how Europe is positioned in the emerging multipolar world order. I must warn you, they don't hold any punches. Full episode coming soon, please subscribe. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.     

Have you ever wondered why some equities earn the special designation of quality compounder? It sounds easy when you read about Charlie Munger or Nick Sleep buying Costco and holding it forever. But everyone now knows the Costco story and how great it is. We can buy that great business, but we risk paying the wrong price.  So, what enables such businesses to compound? How can we identify their critical characteristics to improve our odds of buying them at a fair or even low valuation? I recently had the chance to speak with two high-calibre professional investors who are passionate about doing just this and who spend their time searching the UK market for precisely these situations. These two highly experienced UK equity specialists started their careers in the 1990s at what was Mercury Asset Management and is today BlackRock. Simon Young, among other things, writes The Curious Compounder Substack, and Mark Wharrier has a varied portfolio, including co-hosting the excellent Business Case podcast and is a colleague of mine on the investment committee at Onward Opportunities Ltd.In this episode, we discuss Wise and Goodwin as examples of how very different businesses can compound growth. They share key characteristics, such as high return on capital, growth capacity and duration. Very often, these businesses are founder-led or family-owned, allowing them to pivot when circumstances change and take a considered long-term view about investing. We also discuss acquisitional compound growth typified by UK-listed Halma and Diploma, or North American-listed Constellation Software. These companies derive their compounding from making serial acquisitions funded from internally generated cash flows. Finally, we discuss those companies that might earn the serial compounder tag in the years to come.But of course, as always, none of what you are about to hear is any type of advice, but just for your information and hopefully entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing your money in these crazy markets. With that said, please enjoy my conversation with Mark Wharrier and Simon Young. Brought to you by Progressive Equity.  

Ever wondered why some equities get that special tag of quality compounder? It sounds easy when you read about Charlie Munger or Nick Sleep buying Costco and holding it forever. But everyone knows the Costco story and how great it is. You risk buying a great business at the wrong price. What enables such businesses to compound? How can you identify their critical characteristics so that you can increase the odds of buying them at a fair or low valuation? I recently had the chance to speak with two high-calibre and professional investors who are passionate about doing just this and spending their time searching the UK market for exactly these situations. These two highly experienced UK equity fund managers both started their careers in the 1990s at what was Mercury Asset Management and is today BlackRock. Simon Young, among other things, writes The Curious Compounder Substack, and Mark Wharrier has a varied current portfolio, including co-hosting the excellent Business Case podcast and is a colleague of mine on the investment committee at Onward Opportunities Ltd.COMING SOON on all good podcast platforms ... subscribe to get more great episodes.  Brought to you by Progressive Equity.         

It was a true pleasure last week to chat to the meme trader, parody hedge fund manager and Shrubstack author himself, Le Shrub. Le Shrub uses humour and parody to highlight opportunities and turning points in financial markets, which he brings to life for his followers on his Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator website.  We discuss the role of satire in understanding the stranger than fiction world we inhabit. Why it only makes sense when you realise it is all nonsense … and how his fictional characters, Klaus and the Pod Monkeys, can shed light on the investment landscape we inhabit.    Shrub gives his thoughts on the asymmetry of global markets, why he thinks Nvidia Must Die and why currency debasement is a feature of the Golden Age of Grift, not a bug.  But of course, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but just for your information and hopefully enjoyment.  Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.  And with that said, please enjoy my conversation with Le Shrub. I wrote about Satire & Investing as a tribute to Tom Lehrer, who died earlier this year, where I mentioned Le Shrub's great work. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

It was a great pleasure and a lot of fun to catch up with the master meme trader, the Eurotrash hedge fund parody investor himself, Le Shrub. Learn how he understands the world through satire and memes, as he says, 'nothing makes sense until you accept it's all nonsense.' Full episode dropping soon on all good podcast apps. Please make sure you're subscribed. 

Last week I had a conversation with Marvin Barth, author of the Thematic Markets and Seriously, Marvin?! Substacks.Marvin is what I would call an evolved policy wonk. A PhD economist, Marvin's career includes working for The Federal Reserve, the Bank for International Settlements, the US Treasury Department and several major Wall Street banks.He has a well-informed and holistic view of the world and its core drivers, which should be interesting to everyone, but particularly those of us trying to understand how to position long-term investment portfolios in these chaotic and challenging times. I was keen to speak to Marvin about his Global Entropy framework, which he first outlined on his “paid for” Thematic Markets service two years ago, but has recently republished along with an epilogue on his non-paywalled Substack, Seriously, Marvin! In a wide-ranging discussion, which I found challenging to edit, we discussed what Global Entropy is and how it has commonly been interpreted by differing versions of cognitive dissonance or derangements among universalist liberal elites.        As always, what you are about to hear is not intended as advice, but rather for your enjoyment and hopefully, entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.  With that said, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Marvin Barth. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Last week I was joined by economist and Substack author Marvin Barth for a chat about his work about Global Entropy as a way of thinking about our increasingly chaotic world. Coming soon, please subscribe. 

A couple of weeks ago, I was joined by Catherine McBride, OBE, to talk about her work and, in particular, her recent Substack series on the UK's Doom Loops, Debt Spirals and Dumb Taxes. Catherine is an expert in trade policy, taxation, commodities, agriculture, Brexit, and financial services regulation. She writes to offer a new perspective on traditional media's misdirection and spin.  Catherine has over thirty years of experience in financial markets, as a member of the UK's Trade & Agriculture Commission, she has worked in think tank land, and her work has been widely published. She has worked for the Campaign for an Independent Britain, the Institute of Economic Affairs, and the Tax Reform Council, always striving to provide clarity on complex economic issues.  Catherine does not come from an ivory tower; she approaches her work armed with a wealth of practical, real-world experience. She has worked in a variety of roles, ranging from Strategic Planning to trading financial derivatives.   In our fascinating conversation, we discuss the state of the UK economy and how it led to the world of debt spirals and doom loops. What is the outlook for the upcoming Budget? What are our dumbest taxes? And when and how will this or a future UK government be required to roll back the size of the state?  Finally, we discuss how the new world trade order under the emerging Trump tariff regime changes things, why most people don't really understand it, and how Britain can benefit from it. Spoiler alert, it already is.   Catherine's perspective is as refreshing as it is challenging to today's widely accepted mainstream view of decline and despair. However, as always, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but hopefully you will find it informative and enjoyable. Please take independent financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.  With that said, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick economist, Catherine McBride.    

A couple of weeks ago, I was joined by Catherine McBride, OBE, to talk about her work and, in particular, her recent Substack series on the UK's Doom Loops, Debt Spirals and Dumb Taxes. Catherine is an expert in trade policy, taxation, commodities, agriculture, Brexit, and financial services regulation. She writes to offer a new perspective on traditional media's misdirection and spin.  Catherine has over thirty years of experience in financial markets, as a member of the UK's Trade & Agriculture Commission, she has worked in think tank land, and her work has been widely published. She has worked for the Campaign for an Independent Britain, the Institute of Economic Affairs, and the Tax Reform Council, always striving to provide clarity on complex economic issues.  Catherine does not come from an ivory tower; she approaches her work armed with a wealth of practical, real-world experience. She has worked in a variety of roles, ranging from Strategic Planning to trading financial derivatives.   In our fascinating conversation, we discuss the state of the UK economy and how it led to the world of debt spirals and doom loops. What is the outlook for the upcoming Budget? What are our dumbest taxes? And when and how will this or a future UK government be required to roll back the size of the state?  Finally, we discuss how the new world trade order under the emerging Trump tariff regime changes things, why most people don't really understand it, and how Britain can benefit from it. Spoiler alert, it already is.   Catherine's perspective is as refreshing as it is challenging to today's widely accepted mainstream view of decline and despair. However, as always, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice, but hopefully you will find it informative and enjoyable. Please take independent financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.  With that said, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick economist, Catherine McBride.    

Recently, Head of Research at Panmure Liberum, Times columnist and friend of the podcast, Simon French, wrote an article in which he asked, Can Kemi Badenoch sell Mileinomics in Britain?  This was after the Conservative leader had said that she saw Argentina's Javier Milei as her “template for government.”   An interesting thought experiment, but how serious is this idea? Is it realistic to expect the UK electorate to vote for such drastic economic reform?  Do our politicians really understand what is involved in cutting back the state as undertaken by the Milei administration over the last 18 months?  Will the Argentine experiment deliver an oven-ready case study that the UK might consider adopting in 2029?  To answer these and other questions about the economies and stock markets of both the UK and Argentina and compare notes on these very different countries, with fascinating interwoven histories,  I invited Robert Marstrand, another friend of the podcast, to join Simon and I to discuss the central question…. Does Britain Need a Javier Milei?  Robert has lived in Buenos Aires for many years and writes the excellent Substack OfWealth. He believes that the UK must endure more economic and financial pain, with the potential for currency and gilt crises, before it is ready to accept the Milei medicine. Even then, he has his doubts.  We discuss the disconnect between the economy and the stock market, and Simon offers his stockbroker's insight into how to pitch the UK's longer-term potential to global investors, who, after all, must stay invested and for whom other options are not looking great right now. They agree that the UK has been a good place to invest in recently.  We had a great discussion, but as always, none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice, but for your information and hopefully enjoyment only. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.  With that said, please enjoy my conversation with Simon French and Robert Marstrand.Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Recently, Head of Research at Panmure Liberum, Times columnist and friend of the podcast, Simon French wrote an article in which he asked, Can Kemi Badenoch sell Mileinomics in Britain?  This was after the Conservative leader had said that she saw Argentina's Javier Milei as her “template for government.”   An interesting thought experiment, but how serious is this idea? Is it realistic to expect the UK electorate to vote for such drastic economic reform?  Do our politicians really understand what is involved in cutting back the state as undertaken by the Milei administration over the last 18 months?  Will the Argentine experiment deliver an oven-ready case study that the UK might consider adopting in 2029?  To answer these and other questions about the economies and stock markets of both the UK and Argentina and compare notes on these very different countries, with fascinating interwoven histories,  I invited Robert Marstrand, another friend of the podcast, to join Simon and I to discuss the central question…. Does Britain Need a Javier Milei?  Robert has lived in Buenos Aires for many years and writes the excellent Substack OfWealth. He believes that the UK must endure more economic and financial pain, with the potential for currency and gilt crises before it is ready to accept the Milei medicine. Even then he has his doubts.  We discuss the disconnect between the economy and the stock market, and Simon offers his stockbroker's insight into how to pitch the UK's longer term  potential to global investors, who, after all must stay invested and for whom other options are not looking great right now. They agree that the UK has been a good place to invest recently.  We had a great discussion, but as always none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice but for your information and hopefully enjoyment only. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.  With that said, please enjoy my conversation with Simon French and Robert Marstrand. Brought to you  by Progressive Equity.    

I am spending an increasing amount of time on Substack. It features some excellent content and a diverse range of perspectives. Something that is valuable for any investor seeking non-consensus views and opinions. A recent favourite of mine has been The Brawl Street Journal, a source that posts on “second-order thinking on Europe's markets, energy, and the collision between regulation and reality.”The man behind this blog holds a PhD in international economic law, with a background in World Trade Organisation (remember them?) dispute settlements, and has worked with an international law firm. He also advised banking clients on sanctions law following Russia's invasion of Crimea. He then worked in various economic and regulatory roles within Germany's civil service, giving him a front-row seat on how subsidies, regulations, and political priorities work in practice. The Brawl Street Journal was launched last year to help investors question the consensus, which its creator believes has been infiltrated by propaganda, as defined by the French sociologist Jacques Ellul, who wrote a book of that name in the 1960s. We discuss how propaganda is often an emergent phenomenon of well-intentioned people, rather than the simplistic, malign, authoritarian means of control we usually envision. We discuss how net zero has become one of several propaganda myths of the established European consensus that have weakened the EU and wider European economies. We also discuss the potential for a net-zero-induced crisis, similar to the global financial crisis and what the prospects might be for Europe to avoid this outcome. As always, what you are about to hear is not any kind of advice, but for your information and hopefully entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. With that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick behind The Brawl Street Journal.Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

I am spending an increasing amount of time on Substack. It features some excellent content and a diverse range of perspectives. Something that is valuable for any investor seeking non-consensus views and opinions. A recent favourite of mine has been The Brawl Street Journal, a source that posts on “second-order thinking on Europe's markets, energy, and the collision between regulation and reality.”The man behind this blog holds a PhD in international economic law, with a background in World Trade Organisation (remember them?) dispute settlements, and has worked with an international law firm. He also advised banking clients on sanctions law following Russia's invasion of Crimea. He then worked in various economic and regulatory roles within Germany's civil service, giving him a front-row seat on how subsidies, regulations, and political priorities work in practice. The Brawl Street Journal was launched last year to help investors question the consensus, which its creator believes has been infiltrated by propaganda, as defined by the French sociologist Jacques Ellul, who wrote a book of that name in the 1960s. We discuss how propaganda is often an emergent phenomenon of well-intentioned people, rather than the simplistic, malign, authoritarian means of control we usually envision. We discuss how net zero has become one of several propaganda myths of the established European consensus that have weakened the EU and wider European economies. We also discuss the potential for a net-zero-induced crisis, similar to the global financial crisis and what the prospects might be for Europe to avoid this outcome. As always, what you are about to hear is not any kind of advice, but for your information and hopefully entertainment. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. With that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick behind The Brawl Street Journal. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Is China investable? If so, how do you go about it? What are the basic ground rules? Recently, I spoke to an American fund manager living in the UK whose life has been intertwined with China since he was a young boy. Rufus Frazier has a long career investing in emerging markets, and he believes China offers some of the best investment opportunities available anywhere in the world. In a fascinating discussion, we cover the macro backdrop to China and the perceived risks, such as the Taiwan issue, property rights and the historically poor returns from Chinese equities over the last couple of decades, when its economic growth has been so strong. What are we missing about this disconnect, and why might this be changing?   Rufus explains why the scale and structure of China's market makes stock picking essential, he talks about the things to look for as well as the sectors and stocks to avoid.For example, China's Uber, Didi, seems fine, but its huge battery manufacturer with a dominant global market position, CATL, is more problematic. Finally, Rufus puts the opportunity for Chinese equities into its broader EM context. Where are the other “hot” emerging markets? In his view, mainly in Latin America and Southeast Asia. Now comes the bit where I remind you that none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice, but just for your information and hopefully enjoyment. Please take professional advice before investing a penny of your money into these crazy markets. And with that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Rufus Frazier.  Brought to you by Progressive Equity.    

Charlie Morris is an investor, entrepreneur, and advocate for hard assets. Charlie has 27 years of experience in fund management, with a reputation for actively managing multi-asset portfolios. Charlie was previously the Head of Absolute Return at HSBC Global Asset Management, where he managed $3bn of assets.He writes research for private clients, providing actionable model portfolios that cover equities, bonds, commodities, and other alternative assets. Having discovered gold in the early 2000s, Charlie was an early entrant into the Bitcoin rabbit hole. In 2013, Charlie founded ByteTree, which he initially intended to be the “Bloomberg for Bitcoin”. However, he was unable to find a workable revenue model. With start-ups, being early is just another way of being wrong. In 2022, he launched a Bitcoin and gold ETF (BOLD SW). A fund that remains unauthorised in the UK, albeit available to sophisticated investors on other European exchanges. As Charlie says, he developed BOLD as a new take on the traditional 60:40 portfolio.He identified a valuable low level of correlation between its constituents, Bitcoin and gold, which he has exploited to deliver impressive results.  Towards the end of this chat, we trade thoughts on the latest UK microcap craze for Bitcoin treasury companies, which Charlie believes is unsustainable and just the result of regulatory arbitrage.  And before we get going, here's the bit where I tell you that none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice, but just for information and hopefully entertainment purposes only. You should take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. With that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Charlie Morris.Brought to you by Progressive Equity.https://bold.report/https://www.trustpilot.com/review/bytetree.com?utm_medium=trustbox&utm_source=Minihttps://www.bytetree.com/the-multi-asset-investor/

Charlie Morris is an investor, entrepreneur, and advocate for hard assets. Charlie has 27 years of experience in fund management, with a reputation for actively managing multi-asset portfolios. Charlie was previously the Head of Absolute Return at HSBC Global Asset Management, where he managed $3bn of assets.He writes research for private clients, providing actionable model portfolios that cover equities, bonds, commodities, and other alternative assets. Having discovered gold in the early 2000s, Charlie was an early entrant into the Bitcoin rabbit hole. In 2013, Charlie founded ByteTree, which he initially intended to be the “Bloomberg for Bitcoin”. However, he was unable to find a workable revenue model. With start-ups, being early is just another way of being wrong. In 2022, he launched a Bitcoin and gold ETF (BOLD SW). A fund that remains unauthorised in the UK, albeit available to sophisticated investors on other European exchanges. As Charlie says, he developed BOLD as a new take on the traditional 60:40 portfolio.He identified a valuable low level of correlation between its constituents, Bitcoin and gold, which he has exploited to deliver impressive results.  Towards the end of this chat, we trade thoughts on the latest UK microcap craze for Bitcoin treasury companies, which Charlie believes is unsustainable and just the result of regulatory arbitrage.  And before we get going, here's the bit where I tell you that none of what you are about to hear is investment or any other kind of advice, but just for information and hopefully entertainment purposes only. You should take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. With that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Charlie Morris.Brought to you by Progressive Equity.https://bold.report/https://www.trustpilot.com/review/bytetree.com?utm_medium=trustbox&utm_source=Minihttps://www.bytetree.com/the-multi-asset-investor/

Back in April, I had the chance to talk with three people who are at the business end of UK-based boutique fund managers. The funds they help run and develop have all been featured in previous episodes. Jamie Carter of Variis is a veteran of the boutique landscape, having helped form Oldfield Partners. He is now CEO of a London partnership developing an emerging markets strategy aimed largely at US endowments. The Variis CIO, Leila Cardouche, in an episode from October last year, illustrated the huge potential that an actively managed EM strategy offers.    Ed Hugo partners with Alyx Wood at Kernow Asset Management, where they are having success running a long/short UK equity strategy. Alyx last appeared on the pod in November 2023 to discuss why it might be a good idea to invest in the UK. Meanwhile, Jackson Wray joined Dowgate Wealth in a business development role for its two UK value strategies, Onward Opportunities, a pro-active microcap strategy managed by Laurence Hulse (also last on the podcast in November 2023) and Cape Wrath, a concentrated UK deep value fund managed by Adam Rackley (who appeared in Market Capitulations and Narrative Shifts in June last year). Jackson was previously a professional rugby player with Saracens before retiring in 2023, and he draws some interesting comparisons between the worlds of competitive sport and asset management. All the funds these guys work on have managers with successful track records, but what are the issues when it comes to setting up, complying with the regulations, growing AUM, and how do they deal with things when the going gets tough, not according to plan? These are the thoughts of three people who live and breathe these issues, and it is a fascinating discussion with some interesting pointers for anyone considering setting up themselves.  Ed says you need to be mad, Jamie says the regulators could do more to help, and Jackson stresses the importance of being honest with yourself and your teammates.  For full disclosure, I have investments in the Kernow Equity Fund, Onward Opportunities, and the Cape Wrath Fund. And before we get into it, here's the bit where I tell you that none of what you are about to hear is investment advice, but purely for your information and hopefully entertainment. You should take personal, professional financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.   Please enjoy my conversation with Jamie, Ed and Jackson.       Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Back in April, I had the chance to talk with three people who are at the business end of UK-based boutique fund managers. The funds they help run and develop have all been featured in previous episodes. Jamie Carter of Variis is a veteran of the boutique landscape, having helped form Oldfield Partners. He is now CEO of a London partnership developing an emerging markets strategy aimed largely at US endowments. The Variis CIO, Leila Cardouche, in an episode from October last year, illustrated the huge potential that an actively managed EM strategy offers.    Ed Hugo partners with Alyx Wood at Kernow Asset Management, where they are having success running a long/short UK equity strategy. Alyx last appeared on the pod in November 2023 to discuss why it might be a good idea to invest in the UK. Meanwhile, Jackson Wray joined Dowgate Wealth in a business development role for its two UK value strategies, Onward Opportunities, a pro-active microcap strategy managed by Laurence Hulse (also last on the podcast in November 2023) and Cape Wrath, a concentrated UK deep value fund managed by Adam Rackley (who appeared in Market Capitulations and Narrative Shifts in June last year). Jackson was previously a professional rugby player with Saracens before retiring in 2023, and he draws some interesting comparisons between the worlds of competitive sport and asset management. All the funds these guys work on have managers with successful track records, but what are the issues when it comes to setting up, complying with the regulations, growing AUM, and how do they deal with things when the going gets tough, not according to plan? These are the thoughts of three people who live and breathe these issues, and it is a fascinating discussion with some interesting pointers for anyone considering setting up themselves.  Ed says you need to be mad, Jamie says the regulators could do more to help, and Jackson stresses the importance of being honest with yourself and your teammates.  For full disclosure, I have investments in the Kernow Equity Fund, Onward Opportunities, and the Cape Wrath Fund. And before we get into it here's the bit where I tell you that none of what you are about to hear is investment advice but purely for your information and hopefully entertainment. You should take personal, professional financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.   Please enjoy my conversation with Jamie, Ed and Jackson.       Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

I recently had another chance to talk to Substack's No. 1 financial commentator, Doomberg, as he dialled in from his chicken coup in flyover country.  It has been some 15 months since we last spoke, a time when Rishi Sunak was Prime Minister and Joe Biden was President.   Much has happened subsequently in areas of energy policy, energy markets, politics, and global trade and conflict. And I was keen to catch up.  Doomberg utilises his expertise in understanding our fundamental and complex energy requirements and how they impact the broader macro and geopolitical landscape. And, as usual, he does not pull any punches in his well-reasoned views.  We discuss the rise of populism and the long-term outlook for energy supply and demand. In particular, how the additive energy requirements of AI might counterintuitively lead to much lower oil prices. It's all to do with the unique economics of US shale and AI's enormous demand for US natural gas. Doomberg also offers a no-holds-barred view of the outlook for post-Ukraine war Europe, including the need for political realignment and an explanation of why sanctions fail.  Whatever you think of his views, it is hard to fault the reasoning of his logic, but of course, none of what you hear is advice of any kind and is only for your information and entertainment. As always, you should take personal financial advice prior to investing a penny of your money into these crazy markets.  And with that, please enjoy my conversation with the green chicken, Doomberg.Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

I recently had another chance to talk to Substack's No. 1 financial commentator, Doomberg, as he dialled in from his chicken coup in flyover country.  It has been some 15 months since we last spoke, a time when Rishi Sunak was Prime Minister and Joe Biden was President.   Much has happened subsequently in areas of energy policy, energy markets, politics, and global trade and conflict. And I was keen to catch up.  Doomberg utilises his expertise in understanding our fundamental and complex energy requirements and how they impact the broader macro and geopolitical landscape. And, as usual, he does not pull any punches in his well-reasoned views.  We discuss the rise of populism and the long-term outlook for energy supply and demand. In particular, how the additive energy requirements of AI might counterintuitively lead to much lower oil prices. It's all to do with the unique economics of US shale and AI's enormous demand for US natural gas. Doomberg also offers a no-holds-barred view of the outlook for post-Ukraine war Europe, including the need for political realignment and an explanation of why sanctions fail.  Whatever you think of his views, it is hard to fault the reasoning of his logic, but of course, none of what you hear is advice of any kind and is only for your information and entertainment. As always, you should take personal financial advice prior to investing a penny of your money into these crazy markets.  And with that, please enjoy my conversation with the green chicken, Doomberg. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Joe Bryan is a former investment bank derivatives trader turned sports betting entrepreneur who, during lockdown, went down the proverbial Bitcoin rabbit hole.   After Joe exited the company that bought his sporting odds business last year, a friend invited him on a weekend away. Each guest had to prepare a short talk to lead a discussion on a topic of their choice. Joe chose Bitcoin; it was his passion and his specialist subject.However, it's a big subject and he didn't know where to start. So, assuming no prior knowledge, he told a story explaining why Bitcoin exists and what it fixes. He called his presentation, “What's the Problem?," and Bitcoin was deliberately not mentioned until the last slide.The success of his pitch encouraged him to make a video, and earlier this year, Joe launched What's The Problem? on YouTube and X. The film tells the story of two identical countries with perfect economies and perfect money, save for the existence of a big red button only for use in case of emergency in the country run by Fiatello. For the avoidance of doubt, the big red button equates to a central bank and today's monetary policy. In so doing, Joe explains the wide range of common societal problems that stem from fiat money. These include loss of trust, obesity, family breakdowns, addiction, wealth inequality, and, of course, inflation. Joe leads his audience to the door of the Bitcoin rabbit hole. He wants to spread the word because, as he sees it, Bitcoin is inevitable; everyone will find it in their own time, but eventually everyone will get drawn in, and they will own it at their own price. Joe is a Bitcoin Maximalist who points to the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve as evidence that there is no stopping this train. Of course, he could be wrong, and as always, what you are about to hear is not investment or any other type of advice. It is for your critical evaluation and is only for your information and entertainment. Always do your own research and take professional advice tailored to your own requirements before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.    And with that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Joe Bryan. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

Joe Bryan is a former investment bank derivatives trader turned sports betting entrepreneur who, during lockdown, went down the proverbial Bitcoin rabbit hole.   Having exited from the company that bought his sporting odds business last year, a friend invited Joe on a weekend away. Each guest had to prepare a short talk to lead a discussion on a topic of their choice. Joe chose Bitcoin, it was his passion and his specialist subject.However, it's a big subject and he didn't know where to start. So, assuming no prior knowledge, he told a story explaining why Bitcoin exists and what it fixes. He called his presentation, “What's the Problem?," and Bitcoin was deliberately not mentioned until the last slide.The success of his pitch encouraged him to make a video, and earlier this year, Joe launched What's The Problem? on YouTube and X. The 40-minute film tells the story of two identical countries with perfect economies and perfect money, save for the existence of a big red button only for use in case of emergency in the country run by Fiatello. For the avoidance of doubt, the big red button equates to a central bank and today's monetary policy. In so doing, Joe explains the wide range of common societal problems that stem from fiat money. These include loss of trust, obesity, family breakdowns, addiction, wealth inequality, and, of course, inflation. Joe leads his audience to the door of the Bitcoin rabbit hole. He wants to spread the word because, as he sees it, Bitcoin is inevitable; everyone will find it in their own time, but eventually everyone will get drawn in, and they will own it at their own price. Joe is a Bitcoin Maximalist who points to the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve as evidence that there is no stopping this train. Of course, he could be wrong, and as always, what you are about to hear is not investment or any other type of advice. It is for your critical evaluation and is only for your information and entertainment. Always do your own research and take professional advice tailored to your own requirements before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets.    And with that, please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, Joe Bryan. Brought to you by Progressive Equity. 

During periods of global economic uncertainty and heightened financial market volatility, it is worth considering how investors should think about risk when constructing their portfolios.To this end, I was delighted to have the chance to talk recently to David Dredge at Convex Strategies in Singapore. David not only understands risk, but he also delivers his great insights in a highly entertaining way. He spends his time immersed in understanding sources of risk and developing strategies that mitigate their impact. He does this by embracing convexity, which is buying pockets of cheap volatility as insurance against negative outcomes in conditions of uncertainty.When should investors do this? He says, just like insuring your house, always. He has strong views that contradict the accepted assumptions behind Modern Portfolio Theory, which he calls Sharpe World, which, in his view, falsely equates risk with volatility. David is full of anecdotes and illustrations of the risks investors assume in markets regulated to a Sharpe World and operated by what he calls, Rational Accounting Man.  This episode is probably the most challenging one I have edited. We spoke for nearly two hours, and I could have happily gone on for longer.I thought about making it two episodes, but maybe take a break, if you can draw yourself away and come back to it. I've listened to this one a few times already, and I keep hearing new gems.  As ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice. I hope you find it as entertaining and informative as I did, but this should not be used as the basis of an investment decision. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. Please enjoy my conversation with the maverick, David Dredge.Brought to you by Progressive Equity.  

During periods of global economic uncertainty and heightened financial market volatility, it is worth considering how investors should think about risk when constructing their portfolios.To this end, I was delighted to have the chance to talk recently to David Dredge at Convex Strategies in Singapore. David not only understands risk, but he also delivers his great insights in a highly entertaining way. He spends his time immersed in understanding sources of risk and developing strategies that mitigate their impact. He does this by embracing convexity, which is buying pockets of cheap volatility as insurance against negative outcomes in conditions of uncertainty.When should investors do this? He says, just like insuring your house, always. He has strong views that contradict the accepted assumptions behind Modern Portfolio Theory, which he calls Sharpe World, which, in his view, falsely equates risk with volatility. David is full of anecdotes and illustrations of the risks investors assume in markets regulated to a Sharpe World and operated by what he calls, Rational Accounting Man.  This episode is probably the most challenging one I have edited. We spoke for nearly two hours, and I could have happily gone on for longer.I thought about making it two episodes, but maybe take a break, if you can draw yourself away and come back to it. I've listened to this one a few times already, and I keep hearing new gems.  As ever, none of what you are about to hear is any kind of advice. I hope you find it as entertaining and informative as I did, but this should not be used as the basis of an investment decision. Please take personal financial advice before investing a penny of your money in these crazy markets. Please make sure you are subscribed to enjoy my conversation with the maverick, David Dredge.Brought to you by Progressive Equity.