Podcasts about thematic

Our Deputy Head of Global Research Michael Zezas and Stephen Byrd, Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research, discuss how the U.S. is positioning AI as a pillar of geopolitical influence and what that means for nations and investors.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Deputy Head of Global Research.Stephen Byrd: And I'm Stephen Byrd, Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research.Michael Zezas: Today – is AI becoming the new anchor of geopolitical power?It's Wednesday, February 27th at noon in New York.So, Stephen, at the recent India AI Impact Summit, the U.S. laid out a vision to promote global AI adoption built around what it calls “real AI sovereignty.” Or strategic autonomy through integration with the American AI stack. But several nations from the global south and possibly parts of Europe – they appear skeptical of dependence on proprietary systems, citing concerns about control, explainability, and data ownership. And it appears that stake isn't just technology policy. It's the future structure of global power, economic stratification, and whether sovereign nations can realistically build competitive alternatives outside the U.S. and China.So, Stephen, you were there and you've been describing a growing chasm in the AI world in terms of access to strategies between the U.S. and much of the global south, and possibly Europe. So, from what you heard at the summit, what are the core points of disagreement driving that divide?Stephen Byrd: There definitely are areas of agreement; and we've seen a couple of high-profile agreements reached between the U.S. government and the Indian government just in the last several days. So there certainly is a lot of overlap. I point to the Pax Silica agreement that's so important to secure supply chains, to secure access to AI technology. I think the focus, for example, for India is, as you said; it is, you know, explainability, open access. I was really struck by Prime Minister Modi's focus on ensuring that all Indians have access to AI tools that can help them in their everyday life.You know, a really tangible example that really stuck with me is – someone in a remote village in India who has a medical condition and there's no doctor or nurse nearby using AI to, you know, take a photo of the condition, receive diagnosis, receive support, figure out what the next steps should be. That's very powerful. So, I'd say, open access explainability is very important.Now, the American hyperscalers are very much trying to serve the Indian market and serve the objectives really of the Indian government. And so, there are versions of their models that are open weights, that are being made freely available for health agencies in India, as an example; to the Indian government, as an example.So, there is an attempt to really serve a number of objectives, but I think this key is around open access, explainability, that I do see that there's a tension.Michael Zezas: So, let's talk about that a little bit more. Because it seems one of the concerns raised is this idea of being captive within proprietary Large Language Models. And maybe that includes the risk of having to pay more over time or losing control of citizen data. But, at the same time, you've described that there are some real benefits to AI that these countries want to adopt.So, what is effectively the tension between being captive to a model or the trade off instead for pursuing open and free models? Is it that there's a major quality difference? And is that trade off acceptable?Stephen Byrd: See, that's what's so fascinating, Mike, is, you know, what we need to be thinking about is not just where the technology is today, but where is it in six months, 12 months, 24 months? And from my perspective, it's very clear. That the proprietary American models are going to be much, much more capable.So, let's put some numbers around that. The big five American firms have assembled about 10 times the compute to train their current LLMs compared to their prior LLMs, and that's a big deal. If the scaling laws hold, then a 10x increase in training compute to result in models are about twice as capable.Now just let that sink in for a minute, twice as capable from here. That's a big deal. And so, when we think about the benefit of deploying these models, whether it's in the life sciences or any number of other disciplines, those benefits could start to get very large. And the challenge for the open models will be – will they be able to keep up in terms of access to compute, to training, access to data to train those models? That's a big question.Now, again, there's room for both approaches and it's very possible for the Indian government to continue to experiment and really see which approach is going to serve their citizens the best. And I was really struck by just how focused the Indian government is on serving all of their citizens. Most notably, you know, the poorest of the poor in their nation. So, we'll just have to see.But the pure technologist would say that these proprietary models are going to be increasing capability much faster than the open-source models.So, Mike, let's pivot from the technology layer to the geopolitical layer because the U.S. strategy unveiled at the summit goes way beyond innovation.Michael Zezas: Yeah, it's a good point. And within this discussion of whether or not other countries will choose to pursue open models or more closely adhere to U.S. based models is really a question about how the United States exercises power globally and how it creates alliances going forward.Clearly some part of the strategy is that the U.S. assumes that if it has technology that's alluring to its partners, that they'll want to align with the U.S.' broad goals globally. And that they'll want to be partners in supporting those goals, which of course are tied to AI development.So, the Pax Silica [agreement], which you mentioned earlier, is an interesting point here because this is clearly part of the U.S. strategy to develop relationships with other countries – such that the other countries get access to U.S. models and access to U.S. AI in general. And what the U.S. gets in return is access to supply chain, critical resources, labor, all the things that you need to further the AI build out. Particularly as the U.S. is trying to disassociate more and more from China, and the resources that China might have been able to bring to bear in an AI build out.Stephen Byrd: So, Mike, the U.S. framed “real AI sovereignty” as strategic autonomy rather than full self-sufficiency. So, essentially the. U.S. is encouraging nations to integrate components of the American AI stack. Now, from your perspective, Mike, from a macro and policy standpoint, how significant is that distinction?Michael Zezas: Well, I think it's extremely important. And clearly the U.S. views its AI strategy as not just economic strategy, but national security strategy.There are maybe some analogs to how the U.S. has been able to, over the past 80 years or so, use its dominance in military and military equipment to create a security umbrella that other countries want to be under. And do something similar with AI, which is if there is dominant technology and others want access to it for the societal or economic benefits, then that is going to help when you're negotiating with those countries on other things that you value – whether it be trade policy, foreign policy, sanctions versus another country. That type of thing.So, in a lot of ways, it seems like the U.S. is talking about AI and developing AI as an anchor asset to its power, in a way that military power has been that anchor asset for much of the post World War II period.Stephen Byrd: See, that's what's so interesting, Mike, [be]cause you've highlighted before to me that you believe AI could replace weaponry as really the anchor asset for U.S. global power. Almost a tech equivalent of a defense umbrella.So how durable is that strategy, especially given that some countries are expressing unease about dependency?Michael Zezas: Yeah, it's really hard to know, and I think the tension you and I talked about earlier, Stephen, about whether countries will be willing to make the trade off for access to superior AI models versus open and free models that might be inferior, that'll tell us if this is a viable strategy or not. And it appears like this is still playing out because, correct me if I'm wrong, it's not like we've received some very clear signals from India or other countries about their willingness to make that trade off.Stephen Byrd: No, I think that's right. And just building on the concept of the trade-offs and, sort of, the standard for AI deployment, you know, the U.S. has explicitly rejected centralized global AI governance in favor of national control aligned with domestic values.So, what does that signal about how global technology standards may evolve, particularly as in the U.S., the National Institute of Standards and Technology, or NIST, works to develop interoperable standards for agentic AI systems.Michael Zezas: Yeah, Stephen, I think it's hard to know. It might be that the U.S. is okay with other countries having substantial degrees of freedom with how they use U.S.-based AI models because they could use U.S. law to, at a later date, change how those models are being used – if there's a use case that comes out of it that they find is against U.S. values. Similar in some way to how the U.S. dollar being the predominant currency and, therefore, being the predominant payment system globally, gives the U.S. degrees of freedom to impose sanctions and limit other types of economic transactions when it's in the U.S. interest.So, I don't know that to be specifically true, but it's an interesting question to consider and a potential motivation behind why a laissez-faire approach might be, ultimately, still aligned with U.S. interests.Stephen Byrd: So, Michael, it sounds like really AI is becoming the new strategic infrastructure globally.Michael Zezas: Yeah, I think that's actually a great way to think about it. And so, Stephen, if that were the case, and we're talking about the potential for this to shape geopolitical competition, potentially economic differentials across the globe. And if that is correlated, at least, to some degree with the further development and computing power of these models, what do you think investors should be looking at for signals from here?Stephen Byrd: Number one, by a mile for me, is really the pace of model progress. Not just American models, but Chinese models, open-source models. And there the big reveal for the United States should be somewhere between April and June – for the big five LLM players. That's a bit of speculation based on tracking their chip purchases, their power access, et cetera. But that appears to be the timeframe and a couple of execs have spoken to that approximate timeframe.I would caution investors that I think we're going to be surprised in terms of just how powerful those models are. And we're already seeing in early 2026, these models that were not trained on that kind of volume of compute have really exceeded expectations, you know, quite dramatically in some cases. And I'll give you one example.METR is a third-party that tracks the complexity, what these models can do. And METR has been highlining that every seven months, the complexity of what these models are able to do approximately doubles. It's very fast. But what really got my attention was about a week ago, one of the LLMs broke that trend in a big way to the upside.So, if the scaling laws would hold, based on what METR would've expected, they would expect a model to be able to act independently for about eight hours, a little over eight hours. And what we saw was, the best American model that was recently introduced was more like 15. That's a big deal. And so, I think we're seeing signs of non-linear improvement.We're also going to see additional statements from these AI execs around recursive self-improvement of the models. One ex-AI executive spoke to that. Another LLM exec spoke to that recently as well. So, we're starting to see an acceleration. That means we then need to really consider the trade-offs between the open models and the proprietary. That's going to become really critical and that should happen really through the spring and summer.Michael Zezas: Got it. Well, Stephen, thanks for taking the time to talk.Stephen Byrd: Great speaking with you, Mike.Michael Zezas: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Filling in for TJ McCormack, Walter M. Sterling gives a sprawling, long-form monologue that blends utilitarian local updates, such as an impending blizzard in the Northeast, with pop-culture nostalgia and critiques of modern infrastructure like permanent toll roads. Sterling navigates a wide variety of "everyman" grievances, ranging from the decline of traditional education—specifically the loss of cursive, analog clocks, and hard deadlines—to the predatory nature of corporate giants like Walmart. Structurally, his broadcast functions as an interactive town square, punctuated by listener call-ins that touch on everything from the merits of facial hair in politics to personal experiences with autism and law enforcement. Thematic threads of institutional mistrust and "common sense" morality bind these disparate segments together, as seen in his intense scrutiny of the Jeffrey Epstein scandal and the disappearance of Savannah Guthrie's mother. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On this episode of Destination on the Left, I talk with industry leaders from across the country at the American Bus Association's Marketplace 2026 in Reno, Nevada, to uncover what's next for destinations, attractions, and travelers. You'll hear from Josef Kruger of US Ghost Adventures, Aisha Jones of Mystic Seaport Museum, Jana Carter from Visit Annapolis, Kay Calzolari of Visit Winston Salem, Meredith Dollevoet from Cartersville Museum City, Jim Vozzella with 360Chicago, and Debra Tassone from Discover Long Island. Together, they share fresh insights on how storytelling, immersive activities, and hands-on programming are reshaping group experiences. What You Will Learn in This Episode: How group travel experiences are evolving to focus on immersive storytelling and hands-on engagement Strategies for collaboration between destinations, attractions, and local partners Trends shaping group travel for 2026, including wellness-focused itineraries and multi-generational groups How destinations and attractions are using customizable programming to add value and create memorable moments for visitors Why DMOs and attractions are bundling experiences and aligning their offerings to appeal to new travel trends Innovative approaches organizations are using to keep travelers engaged before, during, and after their visits How getting involved with associations like the ABA contributes to building enduring relationships and fostering continuous growth in the travel industry Innovation Through Collaboration Collaboration is no longer a "nice to have". It's mission-critical critical. Guests stress the importance of teaming up with regional partners, DMOs, and local organizations. By curating joint itineraries, sharing resources, and feeding each other's strengths, destinations can offer more complete and compelling travel experiences. Kay Calzolari of Visit Winston Salem shares how investing in personal relationships with nearby towns and attractions has enabled her to offer valuable regional itineraries, extending stays, and enhancing visitor value. This collaborative spirit isn't just about logistics, it's about approaching every partner as part of a larger community, working together to create seamless, memorable journeys for guests. Trends Driving Group Travel With the approach of major milestones like America's 250th anniversary in 2026, destinations are getting creative. Thematic travel is gaining traction, from wellness retreats and service-oriented projects to festivals and Be Revolutionary experiences, as Jana Carter describes for Annapolis. Operators are increasingly tapping into local culture, outdoor recreation, and even culinary partnerships. Museums are stepping up with exhibits that go beyond static displays. As Aisha Jones discusses, Mystic Seaport Museum is bringing in unique traveling exhibits, like shipwrecks recreated in LEGO, and launching virtual educational programs to grow engagement beyond the museum's walls. The Power of Networks At the heart of this evolution is the network effect. ABA Marketplace events and similar gatherings have become essential for building lasting industry relationships. Whether it's a first-timer bonding over shared experiences or seasoned pros joining councils and volunteer teams, the connections made drive both business and inspiration. As several guests reflect, returning to these conferences is like coming home—reconnecting with peers, learning from each other, and growing together. Resources: Josef Kruger: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jlkdreams/ Aisha Jones: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aishamjones/ Jana Carter: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jana-carter-b01b8160/ Kay Calzolari: https://www.visitwinstonsalem.com/sites/default/files/2024-11/Kay%27s%20Profile%20Sheet Meredith Dollevoet: https://www.linkedin.com/in/meredith-dollevoet-62413615/ Jim Vozzella: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jim-vozzella-b53a7416/ Debra Tassone: https://www.linkedin.com/in/debra-tassone-upward/ We value your thoughts and feedback and would love to hear from you. Leave us a review on your favorite streaming platform to let us know what you want to hear more o​f. Here is a quick tutorial on how to leave us a rating and review on iTunes!

Thematic investing is increasingly shaping how investors interpret markets heading into 2026, as artificial intelligence, geopolitical fragmentation, and infrastructure constraints intersect across the global economy.Jay Jacobs, Head of U.S. Equity ETFs at BlackRock, joins Oscar to discuss why mega forces are becoming harder to ignore—and harder to diversify away from—than in past market cycles. Their conversation explores how AI investing is evolving from a growth narrative into one focused on usage intensity, how national security considerations are reshaping the definition of defense, and why physical infrastructure is emerging as a critical market constraint.Key insights include:· Why thematic investing is gaining relevance alongside sector and style frameworks· How AI usage intensity reframes the AI investment conversation· Where infrastructure and energy constraints may influence adoption timelines· How geopolitical fragmentation is expanding the definition of defense· Why overlapping mega forces may shape market outcomes into 2026Key moments in this episode:00:00 Introduction to Thematic Investing in 2026: AI and Market Forces00:40 The Rise of Thematic Investing01:43 Deep Dive into AI's Market Impact05:22 Understanding Token Consumption07:55 Evaluating AI Investments11:12 Geopolitical Fragmentation and Defense13:51 Infrastructure's Evolving Role16:42 Future of AI and Broader Implications18:38 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Thematic investing, AI investing, Capital markets, Infrastructure, Megaforces, Stock market trends, Geopolitical fragmentation, Defense spendingSources: iShares Thematic Outlook, 2026This content is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or a solicitation. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the listener. Reference to any company or investment strategy mentioned is for illustrative purposes only and not investment advice. In the UK and non-European Economic Area countries, this is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. In the European Economic Area, this is authorized and regulated by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. For full disclosures, visit blackrock.com/corporate/compliance/bid-disclosures.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

A Special Shiur Given to The Community in DetroitParshas Mishpatim 5786This shiur is in: EnglishTo sponsor a weekly shiur⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ click here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠To make a donation to the Minchas Asher Foundation ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠click here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠To subscribe to the Minchas Asher mailing list ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠click here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠For the entire online collection of shiurim from HaGaon Rav Asher Weiss shlit"a please visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.minchasasher.com⁠⁠

Our Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research Stephen Byrd and U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver lay out Morgan Stanley's four key Research themes for 2026, and how those themes could unfold across markets for the rest of the year. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Stephen Byrd: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Stephen Byrd, Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research. Michelle Weaver: And I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist. Stephen Byrd: I was recently on the show to discuss Morgan Stanley's four key themes for 2026. Today, a look at how those themes could actually play out in the real world over the course of this year. It's Tuesday, February 10th at 10am in New York. So one of the biggest challenges for investors right now is separating signal from noise. Markets are reacting to headlines by the minute, but the real drivers of long-term returns tend to move much more slowly and much more powerfully. That's why thematic analysis has been such an important part of how we think about markets, particularly during periods of high volatility. For 2026, our framework is built around four key themes: AI and tech diffusion, the future of energy, the multipolar world, and societal shifts. In other words, three familiar themes and one meaningful evolution from last year. So Michelle, let's start at the top. When investors hear four key themes, what's different about the 2026 framework versus what we laid out in 2025? Michelle Weaver: Well, like you mentioned before, three of our four key themes are the same as last year, so we're gonna continue to see important market impacts from AI and tech diffusion, the future of energy and the multipolar world.But our fourth key theme, societal shifts, is really an expansion of our prior key theme longevity from last year. And while three of the four themes are the same broad categories, the way they impact the market is going to evolve. And these themes don't exist in isolation. They collide and they intersect with one another, having other important market implications. And we'll talk about many of those intersections today as they relate to multiple themes. Let's start with AI. How does the AI and tech diffusion theme specifically evolve since last year? Stephen Byrd: Yeah. You know, you mentioned earlier the evolution of all of our themes, and that was certainly the case with AI and tech diffusion. What I think we'll see in 2026 is a few major evolutions. So, one is a concept that we think of as two worlds of LLM progress and AI adoption; and let me walk through what I mean by that. On LLM progress, we do think that the handful of American LLM developers that have 10 times the compute they had last year are going to be training and producing models of unprecedented capability. We do not think the Chinese models will be able to keep up because they simply do not have the compute required for the training. And so we will see two worlds, very different approaches. That said, the Chinese models are quite excellent in terms of providing low cost solutions to a wide range of very practical business cases. So that's one case of two worlds when we think about the world of AI and tech diffusion. Another is that essentially we could see a really big gap between what you can do with an LLM and what the average user is actually doing with LLMs. Now there're going to be outliers where really leaders will be able to fully utilize LLMs and achieve fairly substantial and breathtaking results. But on average, that won't be the case. And so you'll see a bit of a lag there. That said, I do think when investors see what those frontier capabilities are, I think that does eventually lead to bullishness. So that's one dynamic. Another really big dynamic in 2026 is the mismatch between compute demand and compute supply. We dove very deeply into this in our note, and essentially where we come out is we believe, and our analysis supports this, that the demand for compute is going to be systematically much higher than the supply. That has all kinds of implications. Compute becomes a very precious resource, both at the company level, at the national level. So those are a couple of areas of evolution.So Michelle, let's shift over to the future of energy, which does feel very different today than it did a year ago. Can you kind of walk through what's changed? Michelle Weaver: Well, we absolutely still think that power is one of the key bottlenecks for data center growth. And our power modeling work shows around a 47 gigawatt shortfall before considering innovative time to power solutions. We get down to around a 10 to 20 percent shortfall in power needed in the U.S. though, even after considering those solutions. So power is still very much a bottleneck. But the power picture is becoming even more challenged for data centers, and that's largely because of a major political overhang that's emerging. Consumers across the U.S. have seen their electricity bills rise and are increasingly pointing to data centers as the culprit behind this. I really want to emphasize though this is a nuanced issue and data center power demand is driving consumer bills higher in some areas like the Mid-Atlantic. But this isn't the case nationwide and really depends on a number of factors like data center density in the region and whether it's a regulated or unregulated utility market.But public perception has really turned against data centers and local pushback is causing planned data centers to be canceled or delayed. And you're seeing similar opinions both across political affiliations and across different regional areas. So yes, in some areas data centers have impacted consumer power bills, but in other areas that hasn't been the case. But this is good news though, for companies that offer off-grid power generation, who are able to completely insulate consumers because they're not connecting to the grid.Stephen, the multipolar theme was already strong last year. Why has it become even more central for 2026? Stephen Byrd: Yeah, you're right. It was strong in 2025. In fact, of our 21 categories of stocks, the top three performing were really driven by multipolar world dynamics. Let me walk through three areas of focus that we have for multipolar world in 2026. Number one is an aggressive U.S. policy agenda, and that's going to show up in a number of ways. But examples here would be major efforts to reshore manufacturing, a real evolution in military spending towards a wide range of newer military technologies, reducing power prices and inflation more broadly. And also really focusing on trying to eliminate dependency on China for rare earths. So that's the first big area of focus. The second is around AI technology transfer. And this is quite closely linked to rare earths. So here's the dynamic as we think about U.S. and China. China has a commanding position in rare earths. The United States has a leading position in access to computational resources. Those two are going to interplay quite a bit in 2026. So, for example, we have a view that in 2026, when those American models, these LLMs achieve these step changes up in capabilities that China cannot match, we think that it's very likely that China may exert pressure in terms of rare earths access in order to force the transfer of technology, the best AI technology to China. So that's an example of this linkage between AI and rare earths. And the last dynamic, I'd say broadly, would be the politics of energy, which you described quite well. I think that's going to be a big multipolar world dynamic everywhere around the world. A focus on how much of an impact our data centers are having – whether it's water access, price of power, et cetera. What are the impacts to jobs? And that's going to show up in a variety of policy actions in 2026. Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. Stephen Byrd: So Michelle, the last of our four key themes is societal shifts, and you walked through that briefly before. This expands on our prior longevity work. What does this broader framing capture? Michelle Weaver: Societal shifts will include important topics from longevity still. So, things like preparing for an aging population and AI in healthcare. But the expansion really lets us look at the full age range of the demographic spectrum, and we can also now start thinking about what younger consumers want. It also allows us to look at other income based demographics, like what's been going on with the K-economy, which has been an important theme around the world. And a really critical element, though, of this new theme is AI's impact on the labor market. Last year we did a big piece called The Future of Work. And in it we estimated that around 90 percent of jobs would be impacted by AI. I want to be clear: That's not to say that 90 percent of jobs would be lost by AI or automated by AI. But rather some task or some component of that job could be automated or augmented using AI. And so you might have, you know, the jobs of today looking very different five years from now. Workers are adaptable and, and we do expect many to reskill as part of this evolving job landscape. We've talked about the evolution of our key themes, but now let's focus a little on the results. So how have these themes actually performed from an investment standpoint? Stephen Byrd: Yeah. I was very happy with the results in 2025. When we looked across our categories of thematic stocks; we have 21 categories of thematic stocks within our four big themes. On average in 2025, our thematic stock categories outperformed MSCI World by 16 percent and the S&P 500 by 27 percent respectively. So, I was very happy with that result. When you look at the breakdown, it is interesting in terms of the categories, you did really well. As I mentioned, the top three were driven by multipolar world. That is Critical Minerals, AI Semis, and Defense. But after that you can see a lot of AI in Energy show up. Power in AI was a big winner. Nuclear Power did extremely well. So, we did see other categories, but I did find it really interesting that multipolar world really did top the charts in 2025. Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. Stephen Byrd: Michelle, thanks for taking the time to talk. Michelle Weaver: Great speaking with you, Steven. Stephen Byrd: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

What happens when Tolkien's world, Enya's music, and cutting-edge virtual performance collide?In this episode, we explore a breathtaking Second Life film that reimagines “May It Be” as a haunting, hopeful journey through shadow and light. From gothic landscapes and cinematic lighting to an unexpectedly intimate motion-capture reveal, this episode showcases how virtual worlds can deliver not just spectacle, but genuine emotional resonance.If you love:·       Lord of the Rings and its timeless theme of hope against darkness·       Machinima and virtual cinematography at its most poetic·       Innovative uses of facial mocap and performance in online worlds·       Discovering undiscovered creative voices with serious talent…then you won't want to miss this. We dive into a strikingly beautiful piece of Second Life machinima: Anna Kurka's cinematic cover of Enya's “May It Be” from The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring. Tracy brings the pick, introducing Anna as a Belgium-based virtual performer who blends singing, storytelling, and atmospheric world-building into emotionally rich visual journeys.Set in the hauntingly gothic Second Life region “Infinite Darkness,” the film pairs slow, ethereal fly-throughs of ancient forests, ruins, mist, and light with a tender, intimate vocal performance. The hosts explore how the imagery echoes Tolkien's core themes of darkness and hope, fear and resilience, the liminal space between night and dawn, and how Anna's more human, grounded interpretation contrasts with Enya's otherworldly original.The discussion also turns technical, with a spoiler-friendly deep dive into the surprise ending: a remarkably convincing facial motion-capture performance inside Second Life, raising fascinating questions about virtual production, real-time mocap, and how far user-generated platforms have evolved.Along the way, the panel reflects on Tolkien's enduring emotional power, the courage it takes to reinterpret iconic music, and the often-hidden talent within virtual worlds that deserves a much wider audience.Timestamps –01:26 Overview of Anna Kirker's “May It Be” (Enya / Lord of the Rings cover), her background as a Second Life creator and singer, and the cinematic quality of her work. 06:31 Thematic and musical analysis10:41 Anna's background and artistic potential12:41 Connection to Tolkien's storytelling14:31 Personal Tolkien memories17:11 Spoiler alert and setup for the ending Credits –Hosts: Ricky Grove, Phil Rice, Damien Valentine, Tracy HarwoodProducer/Editor: Phil RiceMusic: Phil Rice and Suno AI

In this episode of The Biblical Languages Podcast, Kevin talks with Christophe Rico about his new Ancient Greek Thematic Dictionary.Christophe Rico is a linguist with a doctorate in ancient Greek and holds the French official accreditation to direct PhD research. Member of the Faculty of the University of Strasbourg, he is Professor of Greek Philology at the Ecole Biblique of Jerusalem. Since 2011, he is the Dean of the Polis Institute at Jerusalem where ancient languages (Greek, Latin, biblical Hebrew, Syriac, Coptic, classical Arabic) are taught through full immersion as living languages according to the “Polis method."Get volume 1 of the Ancient Greek Thematic Dictionary here: https://www.polisjerusalem.org/resource/ancient-greek-thematic-dictionary-volume-i/As always, this episode is brought to you by Biblingo, the premier solution for learning, maintaining, and enjoying the biblical languages. Visit ⁠biblingo.com to learn more and start your 10-day free trial. If you enjoy this episode, be sure to subscribe on your favorite podcast app and leave us a review. You can also follow Biblingo on social media @biblingoapp to discuss the episode with us and other listeners.

Marsha Wulff, Co-Founding Partner, LoftyInc, shares her insights on investing in Africa's emerging tech ecosystem. She discusses the essence of “Courageous Capital,” highlighting the critical role investors must play in supporting not only entrepreneurs but the systems they are building.Read African Ngenuity: An Investor's Guide to a Vital Tech Ecosystem by Marsha Wulff:https://www.amazon.co.uk/African-Ngenuity-Investors-Guide-Ecosystem-ebook/dp/B0FLYC7L9P

Our Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research Stephen Byrd discusses Morgan Stanley's key investment themes for this year and how they're influencing markets and economies.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Stephen Byrd, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research. Today – the four key themes that will define markets and economies in 2026. It's Monday, January 26th, at 10am in New York. If you're feeling overwhelmed by all the market noise and constant swings, you're not alone. One of the biggest hurdles for investors today is really figuring out how to tune out the short-term ups and downs and focus on the bigger trends that are truly changing the world. At Morgan Stanley Research, thematic analysis has long been central to how we think about markets, especially in periods of extreme volatility. A thematic lens helps us step back from the noise and really focus on the structural forces reshaping economies, industries, and societies. And that perspective has delivered results. In 2025, on average, our thematic stock categories outperformed the MSCI World Index by 16 percent and the S&P 500 by 27 percent. And this really reinforces our view that long-term themes can be powerful drivers of alpha. For 2026, our framework is built around four key themes: AI and Tech Diffusion, The Future of Energy, The Multipolar World, and Societal Shifts. Now three of these themes carry forward from last year, but each has evolved meaningfully – and one of our themes represents a major expansion on our prior work. First, the AI and Tech Diffusion theme remains central, but has clearly matured and evolved. In 2025, the focus was on rapid capability gains. In 2026, the emphasis shifts to non-linear improvement and the growing gap between AI capabilities and real-world adoption. A critical evolution is our view that compute demand is likely to exceed supply meaningfully, even as software and hardware become more efficient. As AI use cases multiply and grow more complex, the infrastructure – especially computing power – emerges as a defining constraint. Next is The Future of Energy, which has taken on new urgency. Energy demand in developed markets, long assumed to be flat, is now inflecting upwards. And this is driven largely by AI infrastructure and data centers. Compared with 2025, this theme has expanded from a supply conversation into one focused on policy. Rising energy costs are becoming increasingly visible to consumers, elevating a concept we call the ‘politics of energy.' Policymakers are under pressure to prioritize low-cost, reliable energy, even when trade-offs exist, and new strategies are emerging to secure power without destabilizing grids or increasing household bills. Our third theme, The Multipolar World, also builds on last year but with sharper edges. Globalization continues to fragment as countries prioritize security, resilience, and national self-sufficiency. Since 2025, competition has become more clearly defined by access to critical inputs – such as energy, materials, defense capabilities, and advanced technology. Notably, the top-performing thematic categories in 2025 were driven by Multipolar World dynamics, underscoring how geopolitical and industrial shifts are translating directly into market outcomes. Now the biggest evolution comes with our fourth key theme – which we call Societal Shifts – and this expands on our prior work on Longevity. This new framework captures a wider range of forces shaping societies globally: AI-driven labor disruption and evolution, aging populations, changing consumer preferences, the K-economy, the push for healthy longevity, and challenging demographics across many regions. These shifts increasingly influence government policy, corporate strategy, and economic growth – and their impact spans far more industries than investors often expect. Now crucially these themes don't operate in isolation. AI accelerates energy demand. Energy costs shape politics. Politics influence supply chains and national priorities. And all of this feeds directly into societal outcomes: from employment to consumption patterns. The power of thematic investing lies in understanding these intersections, where multiple forces reinforce one another in underappreciated ways. So to sum it up, the most important investment questions for 2026 aren't just about growth rates. They're about structure. Understanding how technology, energy, geopolitics, and society evolve together may be the clearest way to see where opportunity, and risk, are truly heading. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our U.S. Thematic Strategist Michelle Weaver and U.S. Multi-Industry Analyst Chris Snyder discuss a North America Big Debate for 2026: Whether investments in efficiency and productivity will spark a transformation of U.S. manufacturing. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist. Chris Snyder: I'm Chris Snyder, U.S. Multi-Industry Analyst. Michelle Weaver: Today: Will 2026 be the year of U.S. Manufacturing's transformation? It's Tuesday, January 13th at 10am in New York. U.S. reshoring has been an important component of our multipolar world theme, and manufacturing is one of those topics we have always had our eyes on. We've been making some big predictions about a transformation in this sector, so it makes sense that it features prominently in the big debates we've identified for North America in 2026. In the last few years, there's been a steady stream of investments in automation controls and upgrades across U.S. manufacturing. And this is happening against a backdrop of shifting global supply chains and lingering policy uncertainty. Now, the big market debate is whether these investments will generate a whole wave of greenfield projects – that is brand new, multi-year construction initiatives to build facilities, factories, and infrastructure from the ground up. Chris, what exactly is driving this current wave of efficiency and productivity investment in U.S. manufacturing? And how long term of a trend is it? Chris Snyder: I think what's driving the inflection is tariffs. The view that has underpinned my U.S. reshoring call is that I believe companies have to serve the U.S. market. The U.S. accounts for 30 percent of global consumption – equal to EU and China combined. It is also the best margin region in the world. So, companies have to serve the market, and now what they're doing is they're going back and they're looking at their production assets that they have in the U.S. and they're saying, how can I get more out of what's already here? So, the quickest, cheapest, fastest way to bring production online in the U.S. is drive better productivity and efficiency out of the assets you already have. And we're seeing it come through very quickly after Liberation Day. Michelle Weaver: And you think these investments are an on ramp to larger greenfield projects. What evidence do we have that this efficiency spend is setting the stage for a ramp up in new factory builds? Chris Snyder: I think this is absolutely the leading indicator for greenfields because this is telling us that the supply chain cost calculation has changed. What all of these companies are doing are saying, ‘Okay, how can I get products into the U.S. at the cheapest cost possible?' What we're seeing is the cost of imports have gone higher with tariffs, and now it's more economically advisable for these companies to make the product in the United States. And if that's the case, that means that when they need a new factory, it's going to come to the United States. They might not need a factory now, but when they do, the U.S. is at least incrementally better positioned to get that factory. Other data that we're seeing; I think the most interesting data that's come out of all of this is the bifurcation in global PPI or producer price data. If you look at it on a regional basis, North America markets saw PPI go higher in 2025. They were all the tariff exempt regions – U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Every other region in the world saw PPI down year-to-date. That means that these companies and factories are having to lower prices to stay competitive in the global market and sell their products into the United States. That tells us also where the next factory is going. If you have a factory in the U.S. and a factory in Malaysia, and your U.S. factory is pricing up, that means the return profile is getting better. If your factory in Malaysia is pricing down, it means the returns are getting worse and you're pricing down because it's over-capacitized. That's not a region where you're going to add a factory. You know, what I like to say is – price drives returns, and supply is going to follow returns. And right now, that price data tells us the returns are in the United States. Michelle Weaver: And, for people that might not be familiar with PPI, can you explain it to everyone? It's sort of like CPIs cousin, but how should people think about it? Chris Snyder: Yeah, yeah, so PPI, Producer Price Inflation, it's effectively the prices that my companies, the producers of goods are charging. So maybe this is the price that they would then charge a distributor, who then the distributor ultimately is selling it to a store. And then that's, you know, kind of factoring its way into CPI. But it starts with PPI. Michelle Weaver: And what are some of the key catalysts investors should be looking for in 2026 that could confirm that this greenfield ramp is underway? Chris Snyder: The number one, you know, metric I think the market looks at is manufacturing project starts. Every month there's data that comes out and says how many manufacturing projects were announced in the U.S. that month. And what we've seen coming out of Liberation Day is that number on a project value has gone higher. You know, it hasn't totally inflected, but it has pushed higher. The thing that has inflected is the number of announcements. So, this is not like two or three years ago where we had these mega projects. What we're seeing right now is very broad. And to me that's more important because that shows that there's durability behind it. And it shows that this is because the economics are saying it makes sense. It's not necessarily just because, okay, I got an incentive and I'm trying to follow alongside that. Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. The market seems skeptical though, pointing out that the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index has been shrinking. This could be a sign that demand isn't strong enough to justify building new factories right now. How would you address that concern? Chris Snyder: Yeah, no, I mean, you're definitely right. Like the biggest pushback on the reshoring theme is the demand for goods is not very strong. Consumers are not in a good place. So why would companies add capacity in this backdrop? That's never happened before. Companies only add capacity when they're producing a lot and the utilization goes up. This is not a normal cycle. Throughout history, the motivation to add capacity was when your production rates go higher, your utilization hits a certain level, and then you add capacity. So, it always started with demand to your point. The motivation right now is tariff mitigation. And you do not need higher demand to support that. The U.S. is a $1.2 trillion trade deficit. So, that more than anything gets me confident in the theme and the duration behind it. And I think it's a very different outlook when you look across the international markets. They're the ones that need to find incremental demand to justify investment. Michelle Weaver: And given the scale of U.S. purchasing power and the shift in global capital flows, how do you see these manufacturing trends impacting broader performance in 2026? Chris Snyder: We published our outlook and we're calling for the U.S. Industrial Economy to hit decade high growth levels in the back half of [20]26 and into [20]27. And this is a big reason why. We think about this a lot from a CapEx perspective. And we're seeing the investment, we think that ramps into larger greenfields. But we're also seeing it in the production economy. If you look at the delta between U.S. consumer spend and U.S. manufacturing production, that has really narrowed in recent months. And that tells us that we're increasingly serving U.S. demand through domestic production. So that's another factor that's going to drive activity higher and it doesn't need a cycle. And I think that's what's really important. And I think that is what creates this as a more secular and also durable opportunity. So obviously reassuring is something that's, you know, very close to me and important for the industrial economy. But as you think about the multipolar world theme more broadly, how do you think that evolves in 2026? Michelle Weaver: Yeah, absolutely. Last year the multipolar world was an incredibly powerful theme. And when investors were thinking about the multipolar world last year, it was largely about how are companies going to mitigate the risk of tariffs in the near term. We had the policies come out and surprise everyone in terms of the breadth and the magnitude of the tariffs we saw. We had a lot of policy uncertainty around what is that final level of tariffs going to look like. And a lot of the reaction was really short term. It's how can we use our inventory buffers to try and preserve our margins? How much of these additional tariff costs can we pass off to the end customer? How can we insulate ourselves in the near term? I think this year it's going to turn to more longer-term strategic thinking. Reshoring and a lot of the greenfield projects you were talking about, I think will absolutely be an important component of the multipolar world this year. I think we're also likely to see a greater emphasis on U.S. defense. With the action we just saw in Venezuela. I think we're going to see more of that defense component of the multipolar world starting to be expressed in the U.S. It was a big part of the expression of the theme in Europe last year, but I think it will gain relevance in the U.S. this year. Chris Snyder: Yeah. And I think the next chapter in U.S. industrial growth is just getting going. It's taken 25 years for the U.S. to seed roughly 12 percentage points of global share in manufacturing. We don't think they take that much back. But we think this is a very long runway opportunity. Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. And as we watch for the next wave of greenfields, it's clear that efficiency and productivity investments are more than just a stop gap. They're a longer-term theme and they're a foundation for a new era in U.S. manufacturing. Chris, thank you for taking the time to talk. Chris Snyder: Great speaking with you, Michelle. Michelle Weaver: And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Mindframes — Best of 2025 Episode Title Best Films of 2025 — Trends, Themes, and the State of Cinema Film Information This is a multi‑film recap episode. Primary Shared Films Discussed: Weapons Eddington Hamnet Sinners One Battle After Another Train Dreams Universal Language Frankenstein Additional Films Referenced: It Was Just an Accident Ebony and Ivory Sirât The Zone of Interest Everything Everywhere All at Once Avatar: Fire and Ash Episode Summary In this year‑end episode of Mindframes, Michael Cockerill and David Canfield look back on what they agree was one of the strongest years in cinema in recent memory. Rather than ranking films strictly by quality, the discussion centers on how 2025's movies reflected the emotional, cultural, and political realities of the moment. The hosts explore major technical trends—such as the return of controlled formalism, the renewed importance of sound design, and a more disciplined use of CGI—before turning to deeper thematic currents running through the year's films. Across genres, 2025 cinema repeatedly grappled with loss, systemic failure, alienation, and the fragile possibility of hope. The episode concludes with personal picks, shared favorites, and a defense of films that dared to resist cynicism through human connection and formal craft. Themes & Discussion Controlled Formalism Returns Many of the standout films of 2025 rejected frenetic camera work in favor of classical composition—locked‑off shots, wide frames, symmetry, and negative space. This stylistic restraint allowed emotion to emerge gradually rather than being chased by the camera. Films like Hamnet exemplified how formal discipline can deepen emotional resonance and restore cinematic patience. Sound, Silence, and the Off‑Screen World Sound design emerged as a dominant expressive tool, often prioritizing diegetic and off‑screen audio over traditional sweeping scores. Silence itself became a source of tension, especially in horror, where absence of sound replaced musical cues. This trend reflects both creative evolution and the challenge of balancing theatrical sound design with home viewing habits. Loss, Systems, and the Crisis of Hope Across genres, filmmakers returned obsessively to stories of missing or dead children, institutional collapse, and moral ambiguity. These narratives frame despair as a defining emotional condition of the era, while asking whether hope can survive systemic pressure. Some films embraced the darkness; others, like Universal Language, quietly resisted it through small acts of human connection. ⏱ Timestamp Breakdown Time Topic 00:00 Episode introduction & format 02:00 Why 2025 was a great year for film 03:00 Controlled formalism & visual trends 07:00 Superhero films & genre reinvention 10:00 Sound design, silence, and scoring 18:00 CGI vs practical effects 21:00 Lighting: flat vs dynamic 25:00 Thematic trends: children, systems, despair 32:00 Criteria for personal picks 35:00 Dave's picks: Train Dreams & Ebony and Ivory 42:00 Michael's picks: It Was Just an Accident & Universal Language 50:00 Shared Top Films discussion 1:18:00 Final reflections on cinema & culture Hosts Michael Cockerill David Canfield Links & Contact

Joey Evans takes a look at the Top 10 Most Thematic Games of 2025!

"Crunchy rules or simple vibes? Political intrigue or straight-up dungeon brawls? Survival in a dying world or low-power fantasy feels?" This remastered RPGBOT.Podcast dives into everything you love (and fear) about tabletop RPGs that aren't D&D or Pathfinder. From decision trees to help you find your perfect game match, to the storytelling magic of Powered by the Apocalypse, and the chaotic survival of Mork Borg, there's something for everyone if you're willing to look past what you already know. Tune in if you've ever wondered, "Is my game too crunchy, or am I just lazy?" Summary In this episode, the hosts take a deep dive into the diverse landscape of tabletop RPGs, offering a wealth of insights into various systems, mechanics, and themes. They introduce the concept of decision trees, a practical tool to help players identify RPGs that align with their preferences. The discussion covers the spectrum of complexity, from the intricate 'crunch' of detailed systems to the simplicity of more streamlined games. Key highlights include: The Cypher System and Genesis: An exploration of these versatile systems, focusing on their mechanics and adaptability to different genres. Powered by the Apocalypse Framework: A look at its elegant simplicity and flexibility, making it an excellent choice for narrative-driven campaigns. Legend of the Five Rings vs. Adventures in Rokugan: A comparison of political intrigue-focused gameplay with combat-centric mechanics, illustrating the range of experiences within fantasy RPGs. Mörk Borg: An examination of its dark, nihilistic themes, where traditional heroism gives way to survival in a grim and decaying world. The conversation also ventures into niche areas, such as the unique storytelling potential of solo RPGs, and highlights specific systems like Numenera, with its futuristic exploration themes, and One Ring 2E, celebrated for its low-power fantasy and rich Tolkien-inspired lore. The hosts emphasize the importance of understanding a game's mechanics and setting realistic expectations to maximize the enjoyment of any RPG experience. Links Almost everything below is an affiliate link and Tyler doesn't want to copy+paste this a zillion times Achtung Cthulhu Adventures in Rokugan Alien RPG ALIEN RPG - A review ALIEN RPG: Cinematic Scenario Cycle Review ALIEN RPG - RPGBOT.News S2E34 All Flesh Must Be Eaten Apocalypse World Battletech Bladerunner Call of Cthulhu Candela Obscura Colostle CY_BORG Cyberpunk Red Cypher Core Rulebook Death in Space Death in Space – A review Delta Green Doctor Who RPG Doctors and Daleks FFG Star Wars Fallout RPG Forbidden Lands Genesys Core Rulebook Imperium Maledictum Warhammer 40000 Roleplay: Imperium Maledictum - A Review Legend of the Five Rings Lord of the Rings Roleplay 5e Marvel Multiverse RPG Masks Mork Borg Mörk Borg - A Review Mörk Borg Cult: Heretic - A Zine Review Mörk Borg Cult: Heretic - RPGBOT.News S2E32 Numenera Old Gods of Appalachia Pirate Borg Pulp Cthulhu Ruins of Symbaroum Ruins of Symbaroum - A Review Ruins of Symbaroum - RPGBOT.News S2E46 Shadowdark RPGBOT.Podcast - ShadowDark RPG Adventure Designer Kelsey Dionne Shadowrun Symbaroum The One Ring 2e The One Ring 2nd Edition - A Review The Walking Dead RPG Vaesen Vaesen & the Mythic Britain and Ireland Expansion - A Review RPGBOT.Podcast - Zoe Franznick Reviews Free League's Vaesen Vampire: The Masquerade How to Play Vampire: The Masquerade Warhammer Fantasy Roleplay Werewolf: The Apocalypse SPOOKTOBER - HOW TO PLAY WEREWOLF Takeaways Tyler's Interests Tyler loves wizards and wants to be one. Game Mechanics and Decision-Making The decision tree helps players find suitable RPGs. "Crunch" refers to the interaction with game mechanics. The Captain Crunch scale measures game complexity. Understanding game mechanics enhances the RPG experience. RPG Systems The Cypher System is easy to learn and play. Genesis is a generic system based on Fantasy Flight's Star Wars. Powered by the Apocalypse is a versatile framework. Powered by the Apocalypse games are easy to learn. Fate is complex and math-heavy. The Year Zero Engine is simple yet effective. Solo RPGs can be rewarding experiences. Character Creation and Progression Character creation in RPGs can vary significantly. Character progression in One Ring 2E requires patience and strategy. Adjusting difficulty can enhance the gameplay experience. Thematic and Genre Elements Monster Hearts is popular in the LGBT community. Legend of the Five Rings emphasizes political intrigue (combat is discouraged). Merc Borg presents a nihilistic view of RPGs. Adventures in Rokugan is more combat-focused than its predecessor. Colossal is a unique solo RPG experience. Mercord uniquely advocates for real-world arson in its gameplay. Numenera presents a science fantasy setting a billion years in the future. Players in One Ring 2E are grounded, facing impossible odds. Exploring the themes of low-power fantasy can lead to rich storytelling. Gameplay Depth The intrusion system adds depth to gameplay. The Eye of Sauron and Gandalf rune add depth to gameplay. Solo play in One Ring 2E is well-implemented and enjoyable. If you enjoy the show, please rate and review us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast app. It's a quick, free way to support the podcast, and helps us reach new listeners. If you love the show, consider joining us on Patreon, where backers at the $5 and above tiers get ad free access to RPGBOT.net and the RPGBOT.Podcast, can chat directly to members of the RPGBOT team and community on the RPGBOT.Discord, and can join us for live-streamed recordings. Support us on Amazon.com when you purchase products recommended in the show at the following link: https://amzn.to/3NwElxQ How to Find Us: In-depth articles, guides, handbooks, reviews, news on Tabletop Role Playing at RPGBOT.net Tyler Kamstra Twitter: @RPGBOTDOTNET Facebook: rpgbotbotdotnet Bluesky:rpgbot.bsky.social Ash Ely Professional Game Master on StartPlaying.Games Twitter: @GravenAshes YouTube@ashravenmedia Randall James @JackAmateur Amateurjack.com Producer Dan @Lzr_illuminati

It's the Girlies! You know the drill. If you don't, just listen and you'll get it. It's like an awards show but better.Thanks for listening this year!You can find a whole list of winners (with a couple of visual aids) here.Timestamps:(00:15) The Girlies!(51:30) Spoilers for Carimara and Old Skies(54:25) Spoilers end(1:22:00) Spoilers for Carimara and Silent Hill f(1:24:20) Spoilers end(1:37:25) GOTY discussion(1:43:30) Thematic spoilers for our pick(1:48:30) Major story spoilers for our pickMentioned this week:Neil Newbon being correct about generative AIJennifer English being incredible at the Golden JoysticksAdditional music this episode:Take me out to the ball game from Trombone ChampBaby Steps background musicEra Calling from Angeline EraNina Pasadena from Skin Deep I'm A Bitch, My Name's Robert from DispatchI Am Gonna Claw (Out Your Eyes then Drown You to Death) from Hades 2 Support us on Ko-fi!Check out the network at TheWorstGarbage.online!Join The Worst Garbage Discord!Follow us and send us questions!Follow Robin!Follow Willa!Music Street Food by FASSoundsThings are bad right now, but you can help make them better. Please take some time to consider how you can help trans people, immigrants, and others targeted by our fascist government with this Big List Of Links. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

"Crunchy rules or simple vibes? Political intrigue or straight-up dungeon brawls? Survival in a dying world or low-power fantasy feels?" This remastered RPGBOT.Podcast dives into everything you love (and fear) about tabletop RPGs that aren't D&D or Pathfinder. From decision trees to help you find your perfect game match, to the storytelling magic of Powered by the Apocalypse, and the chaotic survival of Mork Borg, there's something for everyone if you're willing to look past what you already know. Tune in if you've ever wondered, "Is my game too crunchy, or am I just lazy?" Summary In this episode, the hosts take a deep dive into the diverse landscape of tabletop RPGs, offering a wealth of insights into various systems, mechanics, and themes. They introduce the concept of decision trees, a practical tool to help players identify RPGs that align with their preferences. The discussion covers the spectrum of complexity, from the intricate 'crunch' of detailed systems to the simplicity of more streamlined games. Key highlights include: The Cypher System and Genesis: An exploration of these versatile systems, focusing on their mechanics and adaptability to different genres. Powered by the Apocalypse Framework: A look at its elegant simplicity and flexibility, making it an excellent choice for narrative-driven campaigns. Legend of the Five Rings vs. Adventures in Rokugan: A comparison of political intrigue-focused gameplay with combat-centric mechanics, illustrating the range of experiences within fantasy RPGs. Mörk Borg: An examination of its dark, nihilistic themes, where traditional heroism gives way to survival in a grim and decaying world. The conversation also ventures into niche areas, such as the unique storytelling potential of solo RPGs, and highlights specific systems like Numenera, with its futuristic exploration themes, and One Ring 2E, celebrated for its low-power fantasy and rich Tolkien-inspired lore. The hosts emphasize the importance of understanding a game's mechanics and setting realistic expectations to maximize the enjoyment of any RPG experience. Links Almost everything below is an affiliate link and Tyler doesn't want to copy+paste this a zillion times Achtung Cthulhu Adventures in Rokugan Alien RPG ALIEN RPG - A review ALIEN RPG: Cinematic Scenario Cycle Review ALIEN RPG - RPGBOT.News S2E34 All Flesh Must Be Eaten Apocalypse World Battletech Bladerunner Call of Cthulhu Candela Obscura Colostle CY_BORG Cyberpunk Red Cypher Core Rulebook Death in Space Death in Space – A review Delta Green Doctor Who RPG Doctors and Daleks FFG Star Wars Fallout RPG Forbidden Lands Genesys Core Rulebook Imperium Maledictum Warhammer 40000 Roleplay: Imperium Maledictum - A Review Legend of the Five Rings Lord of the Rings Roleplay 5e Marvel Multiverse RPG Masks Mork Borg Mörk Borg - A Review Mörk Borg Cult: Heretic - A Zine Review Mörk Borg Cult: Heretic - RPGBOT.News S2E32 Numenera Old Gods of Appalachia Pirate Borg Pulp Cthulhu Ruins of Symbaroum Ruins of Symbaroum - A Review Ruins of Symbaroum - RPGBOT.News S2E46 Shadowdark RPGBOT.Podcast - ShadowDark RPG Adventure Designer Kelsey Dionne Shadowrun Symbaroum The One Ring 2e The One Ring 2nd Edition - A Review The Walking Dead RPG Vaesen Vaesen & the Mythic Britain and Ireland Expansion - A Review RPGBOT.Podcast - Zoe Franznick Reviews Free League's Vaesen Vampire: The Masquerade How to Play Vampire: The Masquerade Warhammer Fantasy Roleplay Werewolf: The Apocalypse SPOOKTOBER - HOW TO PLAY WEREWOLF Takeaways Tyler's Interests Tyler loves wizards and wants to be one. Game Mechanics and Decision-Making The decision tree helps players find suitable RPGs. "Crunch" refers to the interaction with game mechanics. The Captain Crunch scale measures game complexity. Understanding game mechanics enhances the RPG experience. RPG Systems The Cypher System is easy to learn and play. Genesis is a generic system based on Fantasy Flight's Star Wars. Powered by the Apocalypse is a versatile framework. Powered by the Apocalypse games are easy to learn. Fate is complex and math-heavy. The Year Zero Engine is simple yet effective. Solo RPGs can be rewarding experiences. Character Creation and Progression Character creation in RPGs can vary significantly. Character progression in One Ring 2E requires patience and strategy. Adjusting difficulty can enhance the gameplay experience. Thematic and Genre Elements Monster Hearts is popular in the LGBT community. Legend of the Five Rings emphasizes political intrigue (combat is discouraged). Merc Borg presents a nihilistic view of RPGs. Adventures in Rokugan is more combat-focused than its predecessor. Colossal is a unique solo RPG experience. Mercord uniquely advocates for real-world arson in its gameplay. Numenera presents a science fantasy setting a billion years in the future. Players in One Ring 2E are grounded, facing impossible odds. Exploring the themes of low-power fantasy can lead to rich storytelling. Gameplay Depth The intrusion system adds depth to gameplay. The Eye of Sauron and Gandalf rune add depth to gameplay. Solo play in One Ring 2E is well-implemented and enjoyable. If you enjoy the show, please rate and review us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast app. It's a quick, free way to support the podcast, and helps us reach new listeners. If you love the show, consider joining us on Patreon, where backers at the $5 and above tiers get ad free access to RPGBOT.net and the RPGBOT.Podcast, can chat directly to members of the RPGBOT team and community on the RPGBOT.Discord, and can join us for live-streamed recordings. Support us on Amazon.com when you purchase products recommended in the show at the following link: https://amzn.to/3NwElxQ How to Find Us: In-depth articles, guides, handbooks, reviews, news on Tabletop Role Playing at RPGBOT.net Tyler Kamstra Twitter: @RPGBOTDOTNET Facebook: rpgbotbotdotnet Bluesky:rpgbot.bsky.social Ash Ely Professional Game Master on StartPlaying.Games Twitter: @GravenAshes YouTube@ashravenmedia Randall James @JackAmateur Amateurjack.com Producer Dan @Lzr_illuminati

Andreas Köstenberger Interview Redux Here are two of our interviews with the great Andreas Köstenberger. The first part was discussing his book in response to Bart Ehrman that we did on the show. The second being a join interview with Andreas Köstenberger and his co-author Gregory Goswell on their amazing Biblical Theology book. I have more Köstenberger books in my collection and have referenced his work in almost every message at church I’ve taught. He’s a blessing to the Church and a godly worker in the Lord. Enjoy listening to these interviews and a dream come true from my standpoint. TIMELINE: 00:00 – Introduction 01:44 – How Does He Write So Much?! 04:41 – The Importance Of Writing With Others 06:31 – On The Importance Of John & “Signs Of The Messiah” 08:23 – From Atheist Economist To Christian Theologian 14:09 – Setting His Target On Bart Ehrman 17:36 – The Inspiration For “Truth In A Culture Of Doubt” 19:00 – The Skeptic’s Problem Of The Problem Of Evil 23:15 – Bart Ehrman – The Poor Man’s Theologian 26:15 – Bart Ehrman’s Two Audiences 29:02 – The Layout Of “Truth In A Culture Of Doubt” 36:46 – Bart & Bauer Still Going – Why? 43:00 – Christianity Has A Reliance On Written Texts At The Beginning 47:23 – The Future & Needs Of New Testament Scholarship 49:25 – The Desire For Academics To Throw Out Truths Of Christianity 54:15 – Where Andreas Köstenberger Thinks The Future Of Apologetics Is Going 58:30 – Biblical Foundations Organization & Its Impact 01:02:25 – A Quick Review Of Biblical Theology 01:02:53 – The Division Of Labor & Working Together 01:06:13 – Biblical Theology Vs. Systematic Theology Or Partnership? 01:10:31 – How Biblical Theology Helps Our Presuppositions 01:15:40 – You Too Can Do Biblical Theology 01:17:30 – Ethics In Focus In Biblical Theology 01:27:07 – Theologians Share Surprises In Biblical Theology 01:31:28 – How To Use The Biblical Theology Book 01:36:10 – Other Points About The Book 01:38:57 – Conclusion LINKS LINKS To Andreas Köstenberger Biblical Foundations Facebook Twitter LINKS To Gregory Goswell https://christcollege.edu.au/faculty/greg-goswell/ LINKS: 09:50 – Finding Truth Playlist 14:17 – Ehrman Vs. Wallace Debate 25:36 – Ehrman Vs. White Debate 32:48 – Atheists Should Be Consistently Skeptical 37:09 – Michael J. Kruger Mashup Books mentioned in this episode: Books mentioned in this episode: Truth In A Culture Of Doubt – Engaging Skeptical Challenges to the Bibleby Andreas Köstenberger, Darrell Bock, and Josh Chatraw Kindle – https://amzn.to/2JX62lL Paperback – https://amzn.to/3hoREkW Signs Of The Messiah – An Introduction to John's Gospel by Andreas Köstenberger Kindle – https://amzn.to/3eM4W9r Hardcover – https://amzn.to/33PBGrU Finding Truth – 5 Principles for Unmasking Atheism, Secularism, and Other God Substitutes by Nancy Pearcey Kindle – https://amzn.to/3ohuxKj Hardcover – https://amzn.to/3eQ1RFh Audible – https://amzn.to/33N0yka Truth Matters – Confident Faith in a Confusing World by Andreas Köstenberger, Darrell Bock, and Josh Chatraw Kindle – https://amzn.to/3fcwVhu Hardcover – https://amzn.to/3fjcQWR Paperback – https://amzn.to/33JGU8N Jesus And The Eyewitnesses – The Gospels as Eyewitness Testimony by Richard Bauckham Kindle – https://amzn.to/3uI6Ltv Hardcover – https://amzn.to/3bsseik Paperback – https://amzn.to/3tQlx03 How To Be An Atheist – Why Many Skeptics Aren’t Skeptical Enough by Mitch Stokes Kindle – https://amzn.to/2Qgv0zW Paperback – https://amzn.to/3huJebU The Heresy Of Orthodoxy – How Contemporary Culture’s Fascination with Diversity Has Reshaped Our Understanding of Early Christianity by Michael J. Kruger & Andreas Köstenberger Kindle – https://amzn.to/2QjvxRR Paperback – https://amzn.to/3v4hpuZ Christianity At The Crossroads – How the Second Century Shaped the Future of the Church by Michael J. Kruger Kindle – https://amzn.to/3hn95SU Paperback – https://amzn.to/33JYCJ8 The Cradle, the Cross, and the Crown: An Introduction to the New Testament by Andreas Köstenberger, L. Scott Kellum, Charles L Quarles Kindle – https://amzn.to/3tMb45U Hardcover – https://amzn.to/3hqkeCx Women in the Church – An Interpretation and Application of 1 Timothy 2:9-15 by Andreas Köstenberger & Thomas R. Schreiner Kindle – https://amzn.to/3w2d1fZ Paperback – https://amzn.to/2QlaQ7Y God’s Design for Man and Woman – A Biblical-Theological Survey by Andreas Köstenberger & Margaret Elizabeth Köstenberger Kindle – https://amzn.to/33McqTz Paperback – https://amzn.to/2RUNXZE Apologetics At The Cross – An Introduction for Christian Witness by Josh Chatraw Kindle – https://amzn.to/3fh9pjx Hardcover – https://amzn.to/3uWI5O0 Audible – https://amzn.to/3uT8koD Telling A Better Story – How to Talk About God in a Skeptical Age by Josh Chatraw Kindle – https://amzn.to/3ybiiUl Paperback – https://amzn.to/33N245Q Audible – https://amzn.to/3ygRge8 Evidence That Demands A Verdict – Life-Changing Truth for a Skeptical World by Josh McDowell & Sean McDowell Kindle – https://amzn.to/3hqqZ77 Hardcover – https://amzn.to/3fjeCat Audible – https://amzn.to/2RlxyNO God, Marriage, And Family – Rebuilding the Biblical Foundation by Andreas Köstenberger & David W. Jones Kindle – https://amzn.to/3v0stt3 Paperback – https://amzn.to/2RSwaSK Biblical Theology: A Canonical, Thematic, and Ethical Approach Kindle Hardcover Logos Crossway Text and Paratext: Book Order, Title, and Division as Keys to Biblical Interpretation by Gregory Goswell All episodes, short clips, & blog – https://www.cavetothecross.com

Episode overview Season 10 opens with a live conversation setting the intellectual frame for a new series built around Contemplating Catastrophe, an edited collection of short essays engaging thinkers outside conventional disaster studies. The episode reflects on why reading beyond the field matters, how theory reshapes practice, and why eclectic, critical scholarship is essential for the future of disaster research. Hosts Jason von Meding Ksenia Chmutina Guests A.J. Faas — anthropologist and disaster scholar J.C. Gaillard — geographer and disaster researcher Key themes Why disaster studies must continually read beyond itself Theory as a way to unsettle settled ideas, not as abstraction for its own sake Eclecticism, curiosity, and “thinking with” rather than “thinking about” communities The limits of normative frameworks (e.g., vulnerability, “no natural disasters”) How critical theory informs practice, not just scholarship The importance of non-Anglophone, non-Western, and untranslated bodies of thought Creating intellectual space for early-career researchers to take theoretical risks Core discussion highlights Introduction to Contemplating Catastrophe, a collection of short essays on thinkers who shape disaster thinking indirectly—philosophers, artists, theorists, and writers outside the field. A.J. Faas discusses reading across philosophy, literature, anthropology, and history to keep thought “lively,” and reflects on how Gramsci and Santiago Castro-Gómez help disaster scholars rethink power, hegemony, and relationality. J.C. Gaillard reflects on frustration with disaster practice as a driver for engaging critical theory, particularly Foucault, and argues that theory liberates practice rather than distracting from it. Shared concern that dominant concepts can silence alternative ontologies and lived realities if left unexamined. A collective call to broaden disaster scholarship beyond Euro-American traditions and to value thinkers writing in other languages and contexts. Season 10 structure Live episodes recorded through 2025, archived on our Youtube channel! Thematic episodes planned on feminism, urbanism, anarchism, Black power, Latin American and Caribbean thought, East and Southeast Asian intellectual traditions, and Eastern philosophies.  

Our Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver and Power, Utilities, and Clean Tech Analyst David Arcaro discuss how investments in AI data centers are affecting electricity bills for U.S. consumers.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.David Arcaro: And I'm Dave Arcaro, U.S. Power, Utilities, and Clean Tech Analyst.Michelle Weaver: Today, a hot topic. Are data centers' raising your electricity bills?It's Tuesday, December 23rd at 10am in New York.Most of us have probably noticed our electricity bills have been creeping up. And it's putting pressure on U.S. consumers, especially with higher prices and paychecks not keeping pace. More and more people are pointing to data centers as the reason behind these rising costs, but the story isn't that simple.Regional differences, shifting policies and local utility responses are all at play here. Dave, there's no doubt that data centers are becoming a much bigger part of the story when it comes to U.S. electricity demand. For listeners who might not follow these numbers every day, could you break down how data centers' share of overall electricity use is expected to grow over the next 10 years? And what does that mean for the grid and for the average consumer?David Arcaro: Definitely they're becoming much bigger, much more important and more impactful across the industry in a big way. Data centers were 6 percent of total electricity consumption in the U.S. last year. We're actually forecasting that to triple to 18 percent by 2030, and then hit 20 percent in the early 2030s. So very strong growth, and increasing proportion of the overall utility, electricity use.In aggregate, this is reflecting about 150 gigawatts of new data centers by 2030. Just a very large amount. And this is going to cause a major strain on the electric grid and is going to require substantial build out and upgrading of the transmission system along with construction of new power generation – like gas plants and large-scale renewables, wind, solar, and battery storage across the entire U.S.And generally, when we see utilities investing in additional infrastructure, they need to get that cost recovered. We would typically expect that to lead to higher electric rates for consumers. That's the overall pressure that we're facing right now on the system, from all these data centers coming in.We've got these substantial infrastructure needs. That means utilities will need to charge higher prices to consumers to cover the cost of those investments.Michelle Weaver: What are the main challenges utilities companies face in meeting this rising demand from data centers?David Arcaro: There are a number of challenges. If I were to pick a few of the biggest ones that I see, I think managing affordability is one of the biggest challenges the industry faces right now, because this overall data center growth is absolutely a shock to their business, and it needs to be managed carefully given the political and regulatory challenges that can arise when customer bills are getting are escalating faster than expected. The utility industry faces scrutiny and constant attention from a political and regulatory standpoint, so it's a balance that has to be very carefully managed. There are also reliability challenges that are important.Utilities have to keep the lights on, you know, that's priority number one. The demand for electricity is growing much faster than the supply of new generation that we're seeing; new power plants just aren't being built fast enough. New transmission assets are not being built, as quickly as the data centers are coming on. So, in many areas we're seeing that leads to essentially less of a buffer, and more risk of outages during periods of extreme weather.Michelle Weaver: And you mentioned, companies are thinking about how can they insulate consumers. Can you take us through some of the specifics of what these utility companies are doing? And what regulators are doing to respond, to protect existing customers from rate increases driven by data centers?David Arcaro: Definitely. The industry is getting creative and trying to be proactive in addressing this issue. Many utilities, we're seeing them isolate data centers and charge them higher electric rates, specifically for those data center customers to try to cover all of the grid costs that are attributable to the data center's needs.A couple examples. In Indiana, we're seeing that there's a utility there who's building new power plants, specifically for a very large data center that's coming into the state and they're ring fencing it. They're only charging the data center itself for those costs of the power plants. In Georgia, a utility there is charging a higher rate for the data centers that are coming in to the Atlanta area – such that it actually more than covers the costs and compensates other consumers in the form of bill credits or even bill reductions as those data centers come on.Similarly, then, in Pennsylvania, there's a utility that has excess transmission infrastructure than the state's [infrastructure]. They're better able to absorb data center activity. They're able to lower customer bills as the data centers come on, as they spread their costs over a larger customer base in that case. So, this isn't universal though. There are some areas around the country where there are costs related to data center growth that get socialized across all consumers.One approach I also wanted to mention that we're seeing data centers pursue more and more actively is to power themselves. Essentially bring their own power, and they're using gas turbines, engines, and fuel cells that they're deploying right on site. This is actually in many cases faster than connecting to the grid, but it also avoids any consumer impact. Companies like Solaris Energy and Bloom Energy are two providers of that type of solution. And we're also seeing at a broader industry level. Another approach is the idea of data centers being flexible or turning off and not consuming power from the grid at certain times when the grid is facing stress, in an extreme weather scenario in the winter or summer. And that idea is gaining traction as well. So, we think the industry is looking for approaches that could ease the pressure on the system and on reliability, manage the affordability issues while continuing to enable and build data centers.Michelle Weaver: You mentioned what a few different states are doing on this front. But data centers are not evenly distributed through states or evenly distributed across regions. Are there regional differences in how data center growth is impacting electricity prices?David Arcaro: There are a couple of key differences that we're seeing around the country. Some areas just aren't getting that many data centers, you know, so I'd point out the northeast – in New England, in New York, we're just not seeing that much data center growth. So, it's less of an issue, the impact of data center power demand impacting customer bills in those areas. And then in some regions around the country, the utility structure is important to be aware of. There are some regions where the price of electricity fluctuates based on the supply and demand of power, rather than being directly set and controlled by a regulator. In those markets, data centers can actually more directly impact the price of electricity and there just isn't an easy way in that case to ring fence them and protect consumers from the impact of price increases.So that's where we think unique challenges can arise. And over time, we would expect to see the most meaningful rate impacts to consumers in those areas specifically. And examples would be New Jersey, Maryland, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio. Those are a couple of the states where we're seeing those more volatile and directly impacted prices.So, as we look at utilities, we think the state exposure is going to be more and more important. And so, a few companies like NextEra, Sempra and AEP are a few utilities that are in states that have less affordability concerns and less direct exposure to rate impacts from data centers. And then several power companies like Vistra and Talen have more of their power plants that are in states that have excess infrastructure; and as a result, potentially less affordability concerns.So, clearly the energy sector is facing real challenges and changes. So, Michelle, how are rising electricity bills actually affecting U.S. households?Michelle Weaver: It's putting even more pressure on a consumer that's already being stretched thin by multiple years of inflation and elevated price levels, and electricity is a really different type of good. It's very different from gasoline or other consumer goods or staples – in that it's an essential good. You need to have it. And it's a network service that households are structurally locked into. Unlike gas where you could adjust your trip frequency or take a different type of transport, there really aren't good substitutes for electricity.And so this dynamic weighs on consumers. They have to continue paying these bills, and it weighs particularly heavily on lower income consumers where utility bills make up a much larger portion of their household budget.So, it crowds out some of that other potential spending.David Arcaro: That makes a lot of sense. It's an important expense to consider in terms of the impact on consumers. And, you know, as a result, are consumers blaming data center electricity demand for this rise that we're seeing in bills or are they pushing back?Michelle Weaver: Yeah. Data center development is quickly becoming a NIMBY or “not in my backyard” issue with communities pushing back and even getting projects canceled. Companies really need to find ways to address local concerns about environmental and water related externalities. And message that they're able to insulate consumers, or do something to mitigate these potentially higher electricity bills.A recent poll of around 2200 voters found that just over half of respondents attribute overall electricity price increases to AI data centers, at least somewhat. While around another third, consider them very responsible. And these responses are consistent across all regions and across political affiliations. And I think this consistency across regions is really interesting. As we're talking about before, data centers are not impacting bills in every region. But consumers are still blaming them and still attributing bill increases there.It's clear that both the energy sector and U.S. consumers are navigating a complex landscape with data center growth at the center of the conversation. As policy responses evolve and the U.S. midterm elections approach, this issue is only going to gain more attention. And we'll be sure to bring you the latest. Dave, thanks for taking the time to talk.David Arcaro: Great speaking with you, Michelle.Michelle Weaver: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

ORIGINALLY AIRED 6/10/2022In celebration of Jurassic World: Dominion, we're reading another Jurassic Park 3: Jurassic Park 3! Join us as we discuss feather placement on raptors and basically write slash fanfic for Alan Grant and Billy. Also, Marco and Overbye read Jurassic Park: Survivor, a book detailing how Eric Kirby survived his eight weeks on Isla Sorna. Thematic resonance between these two volumes abounds.Follow us on Twitter: twitter.com/authorizedpodInstagram: instagram.com/authorizedpod

BEWILDERMENT, THE OHIO COMPANY, AND COLONIAL EXPANSION Colleague Robert G. Parkinson. Parkinson explains that "bewilderment" is the central theme of his book, drawing a thematic parallel to Joseph Conrad'sHeart of Darkness to describe the confusion and violence of the early American frontier. The conversation shifts to the Ohio Company, a massive land speculation venture involving George Washington and the Lee family, with the Cresapfamily serving as their essential partners and scouts. Washington frequently visited the Cresaps in Oldtown, Maryland, utilizing them as the "spear point" for English colonial expansion into the Ohio Valley, a move that agitated the Frenchand Indigenous tribes. NUMBER 2

In today's episode, I'm sharing one of my favorite ways to bring more purpose, connection, and deeper learning into your literacy block: thematic planning. This approach—sometimes called cross-curricular instruction—was a huge shift for me when I first transitioned to an IB school. Instead of treating reading, writing, science, and social studies as separate silos, I learned how to plan around big ideas and guiding questions that tied all of our learning together. While it took time to adjust, it completely transformed the way my students engaged with content and how meaningful our classroom learning felt.Throughout the episode, I walk you through what thematic planning is, why it's so powerful, and how you can start using it even if your school doesn't require it. I share my personal experience with moving away from isolated, checklist-style instruction and embracing a more integrated, inquiry-driven approach. I also break down the five simple steps to designing your own thematic unit—everything from choosing a strong guiding question, to selecting connected texts, to building background knowledge, to weaving reading and writing standards into meaningful science or social studies learning. My goal is to show you that thematic planning doesn't have to be overwhelming or reserved for specialized programs. It's absolutely doable in any upper elementary classroom.You'll also hear practical examples of what this looks like day to day, ideas for connecting literacy skills to real-world reading and writing, and a reminder that thematic planning is one of the best ways to build students' content knowledge—something we simply don't get enough time for in traditional schedules. Whether you create a week-long mini unit or a full multi-week study, thematic planning opens the door to richer discussions, more engaged readers and writers, and learning that sticks. If you decide to give thematic planning a try, I'd love to hear what topic you choose and how it impacts your students' learning.***This episode is a replay of Episode 119, and it's one worth revisiting as you think about planning for the months ahead.Check out my Nonfiction Science Reading Passages: Focus on Ecosystems, Focus on Biomes, Focus on Heredity.Check out my Sentence Writing Routine resource here!Join us in the Stellar Literacy Collective Membership: stellarteacher.com/join!Sign up for my FREE private podcast, the Confident Writer Systems Series, here!Sign up for my FREE Revision Made Easy email series here!Follow me on Instagram @thestellarteachercompany. To check out all of the resources from this episode, head to the show notes: https://www.stellarteacher.com/episode284.Mentioned in this...

Can cube storytelling and technical design meet in the middle? During this episode Team Uber has an impromptu discussion with veteran cube designers Kerby & Shoup as they provide their incite to this question. Tune in as we break down their processes of mechanical design versus the top-down thematic approach. Thanks for listening, subscribing, 5-stars, and as always happy cubing!Shoup's DesignsKerby's DesignsJoin the Uber Cube DiscordSupport Uber Cube via PatreonAnthony's CubesMay's CubesUber Cube is now on YouTube!MTG Cube Drafting PageFind us on Twitter @UberCubeMTGPodFind us on Bluesky @ubercubemtgpodcast.bsky.socialEmail Uber Cube : ubercubemtgpodcast@gmail.comThanks for Listening and Happy cubing!Inked Gaming AffiliateUber Cube is now a Inked Gaming affliate. Support the show and find awesome supplies, playmats, etc.Disclaimer: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase, I may receive a commission at no extra cost to you.Support the show

Alban has worked in the Video Game Industry most of his career as Gameplay/AI Programmer. More recently he decided to expand his skills in the board game industry, by designing and publishing several boardgames: Minigolf Designer, Dinodocus and Paragliders (now in Kickstarter). His board game company, named Thematic Games, aims at publishing very thematic and immersive games, since this is Alban's favorite game style.To check out Paragliders on Kickstarter, click here: https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/thematicgames/paraglidersFOLLOW US ON: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/boardgamebingeInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/boardgamebingepodcast/ Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/boardgamebingeWHERE TO FIND OUR PODCAST:Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5RJbdkguebb3MSLAatZr7riHeart Radio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-board-game-binge-72500104/Tune In: https://tunein.com/embed/player/p1344218/Google Podcasts: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5jYXB0aXZhdGUuZm0vYm9hcmRnYW1lYmluZ2U=Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/board-game-binge/id1522623033Visit Our Websites: Board Game Binge: https://boardgamebinge.com/Tin Robot Games: https://tinrobotgames.comElixir Board Games: https://www.elixirboardgames.com/our-games

We discuss the thematic outlook for 2026 and the key themes investors should keep on their radar. (1:00) - What Impact Will Artificial General Intelligence Have On Tech Going Forward? (6:20) - Why Have Data Centers And Power Restricted AI Expansion? (10:10) - Who Stands To Benefit The Most As The AI Ecosystem Evolves? (13:30) - Are We In An AI Bubble? (16:45) - Top Investment Themes To Keep On Your Radar In 2026 (19:30) - Global X Defense Tech ETF: SHLD (21:25) - How Should Investors Gain Exposure To The AI Infrastructure And Data Centers? (26:30) - Episode Roundup: AIQ, PAVE, ZAP, CHPX, SMH, SOXX Podcast@Zacks.com

Linktree: ⁠https://linktr.ee/Analytic⁠Join The Normandy For Additional Bonus Audio And Visual Content For All Things Nme+! Join Here: ⁠https://ow.ly/msoH50WCu0K⁠Analytic Dreamz breaks down 21 Savage's highly calculated WHTTS rollout – his third solo studio album and first pure 21 project since 2024's american dream. With no confirmed release date but strong early-2026 signals via Epic Records, the campaign centers on a menacing, art-driven aesthetic blending street installations and cryptic digital teasers.The anchor: a 25-foot grey “Slawn Balloon” clown head with red nose, cross tattoo, and dagger stabbed through the skull – a direct nod to 21's signature face ink. Created with British-Nigerian artist Olaolu Slawn (known for Virgil Abloh, Skepta, and Off-White collaborations), the inflatable dominated Art Basel Miami (Dec 5–8, Wynwood) parked on a black “WHTTS” truck outside Slawn's OHTO warehouse.Scanning the balloon QR or visiting wtths.info drops fans into a minimalist black site with distorted audio snippets, glitchy clown-to-silhouette visuals, fragmented lyrics (“What's the word? / Dagger in the dirt”), and DSP pre-save – driving over 50,000 pre-saves in 24 hours and a 300% spike post-launch.Momentum started in October with '90s R&B cover homages teasing a smoother, melodic direction, while recent posts and fan accounts) amplified “COMING SOON” messaging. No official singles yet, but rumored Metro Boomin-produced lead “Dagger Talk” leaks and speculated features (Travis Scott, Doja Cat, Young Thug) keep anticipation high.Thematic core: paranoia, fame pressure, UK drill influence, and 21's signature dark atmosphere with added R&B tint. Expected 14–16 tracks, production from Metro Boomin and London on da Track, visual direction by Slawn.Already over 100 million X/Twitter impressions during Art Basel weekend and hailed as one of 2025's boldest rap rollouts, Analytic Dreamz analyzes how 21 Savage is redefining physical marketing in the streaming era. Full segment now on Notorious Mass Effect. Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/analytic-dreamz-notorious-mass-effect/donationsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

The Dice Tower shares 12 great game recommendations in 10 different categories. This time, it's 12 thematic games!

Original Release Date: October 10, 2025Our U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver discusses how the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in history could reshape saving, spending and investment behavior across America.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.Today, a powerful force reshaping the financial lives of millions of Americans: inheritance.It's Friday, October 10th at 10am in New York.Americans are living longer and they're passing on their wealth later. Longevity is one of Morgan Stanley Research's four key themes, and this is an interesting element of longevity. As baby boomers age, they're expected to transfer their wealth to Gen X, millennials and Gen Z to the tune of tens or even hundreds of trillions of U.S. dollars.Estimates vary widely, but the amounts are unprecedented. And so, inheritance isn't just a family milestone; it's becoming an important cornerstone of financial planning and longevity. And understanding who's receiving, expecting, and using their inheritances is key to forecasting how Americans save, spend, and invest.According to our latest AlphaWise survey, 17 percent of U.S. consumers have received an inheritance, and another 14 percent expect to receive one in the future. Younger Americans are especially optimistic. Their expectations split evenly between those anticipating an inheritance within the next 10 years and those expecting it further out.But here's the kicker; income plays a huge role. Only 17 percent of lower income consumers report receiving or expecting an inheritance, but that number jumps to 43 percent among higher income households highlighting a clear wealth divide.What about the size of the inheritance? In our survey, those who received or expect to receive an inheritance fall broadly into three categories. About half reported amounts under $100,000 dollars. For about a third, that amount rose to under $500,000. And then meanwhile, 10 per cent reported an inheritance of half a million dollars or more.Younger consumers tend to report smaller amounts, while inheritance size rises with income. One important thing to remember about our survey though, is it looks more at the average person. We are missing some of those very high net worth demographics in there where I would expect inheritance to rise much higher than half a million.And so, when we think about this, how will recipients use this wealth? That's a really important question. The majority, about 60 percent, say they have or will put their inheritance towards savings, retirement, or investments. About a third say they'll use it for housing or paying down debt. Day-to-day consumption, travel, education and even starting a business or giving to charity also featured in the survey responses – but to a lesser extent.The financial impact of inheritance is significant: 46 percent of recipients say it makes them feel more financially secure; 40 percent cite improvements in savings; and 22 percent associate it with increased spending. Some even report retiring earlier or lightening their workloads.Inheritance trends are shaping consumer behavior and have the power to influence spending patterns across industries. To sum it up, inheritance isn't just a family matter, it's a market mover.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Thematic ETFs were all the rage. Then they weren't. But could 2026 be their comeback year… all thanks to what stole their spotlight to begin with? Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Chris Murphy and Alex Berg discuss the record-breaking growth of ETFs and the shift in investor interest towards thematic investing. Despite market volatility, they see continued demand for actively managed ETFs, particularly in areas such as international equity markets, commodities, and fixed income. They also touch on the rise of derivative-based ETFs and the importance of education for advisors navigating the increasingly complex ETF landscape.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Click Here to Get All Podcast Show Notes!What happens when you give your child $50 not to spend but to invest? In this episode, Sharran shares the inspiring story of how he turned his 11-year-old son into an investor and grew a $1,000 portfolio into over $7,000 in just three years.Sharran breaks down the exact four investments they made, why one of them exploded 2,200%, and the powerful lessons he learned about risk, patience, and teaching kids the value of money early. He also explains why the best financial education isn't about complexity but about clarity, confidence, and conversation.This episode is more than a financial story–it's a blueprint for building generational wealth and raising financially intelligent kids.Tune in to discover how to help your child think like an investor before they even hit high school.“The sooner you can introduce your kids to money, the less they'll be afraid of it.”- Sharran SrivatsaaTimestamps:01:08 - Why he replaced allowance with investing04:12 - Thematic investing made simple for kids06:04 - How Sharran built a $1,000 portfolio09:18 - Introducing risk with MicroStrategy and Bitcoin13:05 - The power (and fear) of volatility13:34 - Why diversification protects your portfolio14:33 - Patience as the secret to long-term growth15:54 - Why simplicity beats complexity in investing16:17 - Lessons parents can use to teach financial literacy18:13 - The key to helping kids build confidence with moneyResources:- The Next Billion by Sharran Srivatsaa - https://sharransrivatsaa.substack.com/- Acquisition.com - https://www.acquisition.com/- Board Member: ARC Multifamily Real Estate Investing - https://arcmf.com/- Board Member: The Real Brokerage - https://www.joinreal.com/Connect with Sharran:- Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/likesharran- Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/sharransrivatsaa/- X - https://x.com/sharran- LinkedIn - http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharran- YouTube -

Hear from host Paul Spain and Alyona Medelyan (Thematic) as they discuss highlights from Auckland Startup Week, and review tech news from the week including, NZ's undersea drone push to protect vital cables, Rural internet pressures amid Starlink's rise, AWS DNS triggers widespread outages, major fraud stories span crypto empires and rigged poker. Plus, Alyona shares insights on leadership, startup culture lessons, and how Thematic helps businesses with customer feedback analytics.A big thank you to our show partners One NZ, Spark, HP, 2degrees and Gorilla Technology.

In this episode of the Parent Companion for Play Therapy series, I explain one of the most important parts of understanding what happens in the playroom — symbolic and thematic play. This episode helps parents make sense of how their child's play reflects their experiences, emotions, and healing process. I describe how children often “rewrite” their stories through play, working through fear, confusion, or past experiences in ways that help them feel more in control and confident. Understanding symbolic and thematic play is key for parents, because it reveals how meaningful play really is — and why it leads to lasting change in child-centered play therapy. Ask Me Questions:  Call ‪(813) 812-5525‬, or email: brenna@thekidcounselor.com My Book: Device Detox: A Parent's Guide To Reducing Usage, Preventing Tantrums, And Raising Happier Kids - https://a.co/d/bThnKH9 Podcast HQ: https://www.playtherapyparenting.com/ My Newsletter Signup: https://www.playtherapyparenting.com/newsletter/ My Podcast Partner, Gabb Wireless: https://www.playtherapyparenting.com/gabb/ Common References: Landreth, G.L. (2023). Play Therapy: The Art of the Relationship (4th ed.). Routledge. Bratton, S. C., Landreth, G. L., Kellam, T., & Blackard, S. R. (2006). Child parent relationship therapy (CPRT) treatment manual: A 10-session filial therapy model for training parents. Routledge/Taylor & Francis Group.

Our U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver discusses how the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in history could reshape saving, spending and investment behavior across America.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.Today, a powerful force reshaping the financial lives of millions of Americans: inheritance.It's Friday, October 10th at 10am in New York.Americans are living longer and they're passing on their wealth later. Longevity is one of Morgan Stanley Research's four key themes, and this is an interesting element of longevity. As baby boomers age, they're expected to transfer their wealth to Gen X, millennials and Gen Z to the tune of tens or even hundreds of trillions of U.S. dollars.Estimates vary widely, but the amounts are unprecedented. And so, inheritance isn't just a family milestone; it's becoming an important cornerstone of financial planning and longevity. And understanding who's receiving, expecting, and using their inheritances is key to forecasting how Americans save, spend, and invest.According to our latest AlphaWise survey, 17 percent of U.S. consumers have received an inheritance, and another 14 percent expect to receive one in the future. Younger Americans are especially optimistic. Their expectations split evenly between those anticipating an inheritance within the next 10 years and those expecting it further out.But here's the kicker; income plays a huge role. Only 17 percent of lower income consumers report receiving or expecting an inheritance, but that number jumps to 43 percent among higher income households highlighting a clear wealth divide.What about the size of the inheritance? In our survey, those who received or expect to receive an inheritance fall broadly into three categories. About half reported amounts under $100,000 dollars. For about a third, that amount rose to under $500,000. And then meanwhile, 10 per cent reported an inheritance of half a million dollars or more.Younger consumers tend to report smaller amounts, while inheritance size rises with income. One important thing to remember about our survey though, is it looks more at the average person. We are missing some of those very high net worth demographics in there where I would expect inheritance to rise much higher than half a million.And so, when we think about this, how will recipients use this wealth? That's a really important question. The majority, about 60 percent, say they have or will put their inheritance towards savings, retirement, or investments. About a third say they'll use it for housing or paying down debt. Day-to-day consumption, travel, education and even starting a business or giving to charity also featured in the survey responses – but to a lesser extent.The financial impact of inheritance is significant: 46 percent of recipients say it makes them feel more financially secure; 40 percent cite improvements in savings; and 22 percent associate it with increased spending. Some even report retiring earlier or lightening their workloads.Inheritance trends are shaping consumer behavior and have the power to influence spending patterns across industries. To sum it up, inheritance isn't just a family matter, it's a market mover.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In this episode of JK! Games!, Jerica and Kayla return to the fog for Part 2 of our Silent Hill f Video Game Book Club series. We're halfway through the nightmare and unpacking how the game's story, pacing, and tone evolve as the world opens up.We start with a discussion on the use of flowers in video games—and how Silent Hill f turns beauty into dread—then dive into our first impressions of Ghost of Yotei, before checking in on our current progress through Silent Hill f. Finally, we close out with an Expert Mode segment exploring how the game's themes have impacted our experience.Timecodes:00:00:00 – Start00:08:58 – Flowers in Video Games00:26:14 – Easy Mode: First Impressions of Ghost of Yotei00:32:55 – Normal Mode: Silent Hill f Current Progress00:55:22 – Expert Mode: Silent Hill f Themes and ConnectionsJK! Games! is the gaming podcast where we bring you the news and reviews we care about, hosted by Jerica and Kayla.VGBC (Video Game Book Club) is our rotating deep-dive series focused on one game at a time—played together, discussed together, broken down one level at a time.Follow and play with us! @JKGamesPodcast Discord Twitch Youtube Insta Bsky

Our Global Head of Thematic and Fixed Income Research Michael Zezas and our U.S. Public Policy Strategist Ariana Salvatore unpack the market and economic implications of a looming government shutdown.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, U.S. Public Policy Strategist. Michael Zezas: Today, our focus is once again on Washington – as the U.S. government fiscal year draws to a close and a potential government shutdown hangs in the balance.It's Friday, September 26th at noon in New York. Ariana we're just four days away from the end of the month. By October 1st, Congress needs to have a funding agreement in place, or we risk a potential shutdown. To that point, Democrats and Republicans seem far apart on the deal to avoid a shutdown. What's the state of play? Ariana Salvatore: Right now, Republicans are pushing for what's called a clean continuing resolution. That's a bill that would keep funding levels flat while putting more time on the clock for negotiators to hammer out full fiscal year appropriations. And the CR they're proposing lasts until November 21st. Democrats, conversely, are seeking to tie government funding to legislative compromise in other areas, including the enhanced Obamacare or ACA subsidies, and potential spending cuts to Medicaid from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which Republicans signed earlier this year. Remember, even though Republicans hold a majority in both chambers, this has to be a bipartisan agreement because of exactly how thin those margins of control are. But Mike, it seems as we get closer, investors are asking more infrequently whether or not a shutdown is happening – and are more interested in how long it could potentially last. What are we thinking there? Michael Zezas: So, it's hard to know. Shutdowns typically last a few days, but sometimes there are short as a few hours, sometimes as long as a few weeks. Historically, shutdowns tend to end when the economic risk, and therefore the attached political risk gets real. So, consider the 35-day shutdown under President Trump in this first term. The compromise that ended it came quickly after there was an air traffic stoppage at New York's LaGuardia Airport – when 10 air traffic controllers who weren't being paid failed to show up for work. So, we think the more relevant question for investors is what it all means for economic activity. Our economists have historically argued that a government shutdown takes something like 0.1 percent off of GDP every single week it's happening. However, once employees go back to work, a lot of times that effect fades pretty quickly. Now it's important to understand that this time around there could be a wrinkle. The Trump administration is talking about laying employees off on a durable basis during the shutdown. And that's something that maybe would have more of a lasting economic impact. It's hard to know how credible that potential is. There would almost certainly be court challenges, but it's something we have to keep our eye on that could create a more meaningful economic consequence. Ariana Salvatore: That's right. And there are also some really important indirect macroeconomic effects here. Like delayed data releases. Much of the federal workforce, to your point, will not be working through a shutdown – which could impede the collection and the release of some key data points that matter for markets like labor and inflation data, which come from BLS, the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So, assuming we're in this scenario with a longer-term shutdown. Obviously, we're going to see an increase in uncertainty, especially as investors are looking toward each data print for guidance on what the Fed's next move might be. What do we expect the market reaction to all of this to be? Michael Zezas: Well, the obvious risk here is that markets might have to price in some weaker growth potential. So, you could see treasury yields fall. You could see equity markets wobble; be a bit more volatile. It could be that those effects are temporary, though. And that volatility could easily be amplified by having to price risk in the market without the data you were talking about, Ariana. So, investors could overreact to anecdotal signals about the economy or underweight some real risks that they're not seeing. So, that's why even a short shutdown can have outsized market effects. Well, Ariana, thanks for taking the time to talk.Ariana Salvatore: Great speaking with you, Mike. Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you get this podcast and tell your friends about it. We want everyone to listen.

ETFs are at the center of how investors are navigating today's rapidly changing markets. From active ETFs to thematic strategies around megaforces like artificial intelligence and infrastructure, innovation in exchange-traded funds is reshaping how portfolios are built.In this special Ask Me Anything edition of The Bid, host Oscar Pulido sits down with Jay Jacobs, U.S. Head of Equity ETFs at BlackRock, to answer questions submitted by listeners. Together, they explore the evolving ETF landscape and how investors can better position themselves in a volatile world. Jay also highlights the link between AI and infrastructure - noting that advances in artificial intelligence require massive investments in electricity, real estate, and supply chains. For investors, the message is clear: today's portfolios must capture both enduring themes and defensive strategies.Key insights include:The “be, beat, modify” equity framework for building portfolios: how core ETFs provide efficiency, active and thematic ETFs can aim to outperform, and outcome-oriented strategies offer risk management.Why factor investing (quality, value, momentum) demands a more tactical, systematic approach in 2025.The growing role of active ETFs as investors seek new sources of alpha in an era of lower expected returns.Why diversifying beyond U.S. equities and addressing concentration risk from mega-cap tech is increasingly important.How megaforces like AI, geopolitics, and infrastructure demand are reshaping equity markets and long-term investing themes.The role of gold and Bitcoin as portfolio diversifiers and monetary alternatives beyond traditional stocks and bonds.Timestamps00:00 Introduction to Investor Interests in 202500:20 Ask Me Anything: Meet Jay Jacobs, U.S. Head of Equity ETFs at BlackRock01:14 Understanding Equity Markets: Be, Beat, and Modify04:00 Factor Exposures and Economic Environments05:57 Geographical Diversification in Portfolios07:54 The Role of Thematic Investing09:58 Active ETFs vs. Mutual Funds13:40 Exploring Alternative Asset Classes: Gold and Bitcoin15:32 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Our Co-Head of Securitized Products Research James Egan joins our Chief Economic Strategist Ellen Zentner to discuss the recent challenges facing the U.S. housing market, and the path forward for home buyers and investors. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- James Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm James Egan, U.S. Housing Strategist and Co-Head of Securitized Products Research for Morgan Stanley. Ellen Zentner: And I'm Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist and Global Head of Thematic and Macro Investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. James Egan: And today we dive into a topic that touches nearly every American household, quite literally. The future of the U.S. housing market. It's Thursday, September 25th at 10am in New York. So, Ellen, this conversation couldn't be timelier. Last week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and our chief U.S. Economist, Mike Gapen expects three more consecutive 25 basis point cuts through January of next year. And that's going to be followed by two more 25 basis point cuts in April and July. But mortgage rates, they're not tied to fed funds. So even if we do get 6.25 bps cuts by the end of 2026, that in and of itself we don't think is going to be sufficient to bring down mortgage rates, though other factors could get us there.Taking all that into account, the U.S. housing market appears to be a little stuck. The big question on investors' minds is – what's next for housing and what does that mean for the broader economy? Ellen Zentner: Well, I don't like the word stuck. There's no churn in the housing market. We want to see things moving and shaking. We want to see sellers out there. We want to see buyers out there. And we've got a lot of buyers – or would be buyers, right? But not a lot of sellers. And, you know, the economy does well when things are moving and shaking because there's a lot of home related spending that goes on when we're selling and buying homes. And so that helps boost consumer spending. Housing is also a really interest rate sensitive sector, so you know, I like to say as goes housing, so goes the business cycle. And so, you don't want to think that housing is sort of on the downhill slide or heading toward a downturn [be]cause it would mean that the entire economy is headed toward a downturn. So, we want to see housing improve here. We want to see it thaw out. I don't like, again, the word stuck, you know. I want to see some more churn. James Egan: As do we, and one of the reasons that I wanted to talk to you today is that you are observing all of these pressures on the U.S. housing market from your perspective in wealth management. And that means your job is to advise retail clients who sometimes can have a longer investment time horizon. So, Ellen, when you look at the next decade, how do you estimate the need for new housing units in the United States and what happens if we fall short of these estimated targets? Ellen Zentner: Yeah, so we always like to say demographics makes the world go round and especially it makes the housing market go round. And we know that if you just look at demographic drivers in the U.S. Of those young millennials and Gen Z that are aging into their first time home buying years – whether they're able to immediately or at some point purchase a home – they will want to buy homes. And if they can't afford the homes, then they will want to maybe rent those single-family homes. But either way, if you're just looking at the sheer need for housing in any way, shape, or form that it comes, we're going to need about 18 million units to meet all of that demand through 2030. And so, when I'm talking with our clients on the wealth management side, it's – Okay, short term here or over the next couple of years, there is a housing cycle. And affordability is creating pressures there. But if we look out beyond that, there are opportunities because of the demographic drivers – single family rentals, multi-family. We think modular housing can be something big here, as well. All of those solutions that can help everyone get into a home that wants to be. James Egan: Now, you hit on something there that I think is really important, kind of the implications of affordability challenges. One of the things that we've been seeing is it's been driving a shift toward rentership over ownership. How does that specific trend affect economic multipliers and long-term wealth creation? Ellen Zentner: In terms of whether you're going to buy a single-family home or you're going to rent a single-family home, it tends to be more square footage and there's more spending that goes on with it. But, of course, then relatively speaking, if you're buying that single family home versus renting, you're also going to probably spend a lot more time and care on that home while you're there, which means more money into the economy. In terms of wealth creation, we'd love to get the single-family home ownership rate as high as possible. It's the key way that households build intergenerational wealth. And the average American, or the average household has four times the wealth in their home than they do in the stock market. And so that's why it's very important that we've always created wealth that way through housing; and we want people to own, and they want to own. And that's good news. James Egan: These affordability challenges. Another thing that you've been highlighting is that they've led to an internal migration trend. People moving from high cost to lower cost metro areas. How is this playing out and what are the economic consequences of this migration? Ellen Zentner: Well, I think, first of all, I think to the wonderful work that Mark Schmidt does on the Munis team at MS and Co. It matters a great deal, ownership rates in various regions because it can tell you something about the health of the metropolitan area where they are. Buying those homes and paying those property taxes. It can create imbalances across the U.S. where you've got excess supply maybe in some areas, but very tight housing supply in others. And eventually to balance that out, you might even have some people that, say, post-COVID or during COVID moved to some parts of the country that have now become very expensive. And so, they leave those places and then go back to either try another locale or back to the locale they had moved from. So, understanding those flows within the U.S. can help communities understand the needs of their community, the costs associated with filling those needs, and also associated revenues that might be coming in. So, Jim, I mentioned a couple of times here about single family renting, and so from your perch, given that growing number of single-family rentals, how is that going to influence housing strategy and pricing? James Egan: It is certainly another piece of the puzzle when we look at like single family home ownership, multi-unit rentership, multi-unit home ownership, and then single family rentership. Over the past 15 years, this has been the fastest growing way in which kind of U.S. households exist. And when we take a step back looking at the housing market more holistically – something you hit on earlier – supply has been low, and that's played a key role in keeping prices high and affordability under pressure. On top of that, credit availability has been constrained. It's one of the pillars that we use when evaluating home prices and housing activity that we do think gets overlooked. And so even if you can find a home to buy in these tight inventory environments, it's pretty difficult to qualify for a mortgage. Those lending standards have been tight, that's pushed the home ownership rate down to 65 percent. Now, it was a little bit lower than this, after the Great Financial Crisis, but prior to that point, this is the lowest that home ownership rates have been since 1995. And so, we do think that single family rentership, it becomes another outlet and will continue to be an important pillar for the U.S. housing market on a go forward basis. So, the economic implications of that, that you highlighted earlier, we think that's going to continue to be something that we're living with – pun only half intended – in the U.S. housing market. Ellen Zentner: Only half intended. But let me take you back to something that you said at the beginning of the podcast. And you talked about Gapen's expectation for rate cuts and that that's going to bring fed funds rate down. Those are interest rates, though that don't impact mortgage rates. So how do mortgage rates price? And then, how do you see those persistently higher mortgage rates continuing to weigh on affordability. Or, I guess, really, what we all want to know is – when are mortgage rates going to get to a point where housing does become affordable again? James Egan: In our prior podcast, my Co-Head of Securitized Products Research, Jay Bacow and myself talked about how cutting fed funds wasn't necessarily sufficient to bring down mortgage rates. But the other piece of this is going to be how much lower do mortgage rates need to go? And one of the things we highlighted there, a data point that we do think is important. Mortgage rates have come down recently, right? Like we're at our lowest point of the year, but the effective rate on the outstanding market is still below 4.25 percent. Mortgage rates are still above 6.25 percent, so the market's 200 basis points out of the money. One of the things that we've been trying to do, looking at changes to affordability historically. What we think you really need to see a sustainable growth in housing activity is about a 10 percent improvement in affordability. How do we get there? It's about a 5.5 percent mortgage rate as opposed to the 6 1/8th to 6.25 where we were when we walked into this recording studio today. We think there will be a little bit response to the move in mortgage rates we've already seen. Again, it's the lowest that rates have been this year, and there have been some… Ellen Zentner: Are those fence sitters; what we call fence sitters? People that say, ‘Oh gosh, it's coming down. Let me go ahead and jump in here.' James Egan: Absolutely. We'll see some of that. And then from just other parts of the housing infrastructure, we'll see refinance rates pick up, right? Like there are borrowers who've seen originations over the course of the past couple years whose rates are higher than this. Morgan Stanley actually publishes a truly refinanceable index that measures what percentage of the housing market has at least a 25 basis point incentive to refinance. Housing market holistically after this move? 17 percent? Mortgages originated in the last two years, 61 percent of them have that incentive. So, I think you'll see a little bit more purchase activity. Again, we need to get to 5.5 percent for us to believe that will be sustainable. But you'll also see some refinance activity as well, right? Ellen Zentner: Right, it doesn't mean you get absolutely nothing and then all of a sudden the spigot opens when you get to 5.5 percent. Anecdotal evidence, I have a 2.7 percent 30-year mortgage and I've told my husband, I'm going to die in this apartment. I'm not moving anywhere. So, I'm part of the problem, Jim. James Egan: Well, congratulations to you on the mortgage… Ellen Zentner: Thank you. I wasn't trying to brag, But yes, it feels like, you know, your point on perspective folks that are younger buyers, you know, are looking at the prevailing mortgage rate right now and saying, ‘My gosh, that's really high.' But some of us that have been around for a lot longer are saying, ‘Really, this is fine.' But it's all relative speaking. James Egan: When you have over 60 percent of the mortgage market that has a rate below 4.5 percent, below 4 percent, yes, on a long-term basis, mortgage rates don't look particularly high. They're very high relative to the past 15 years, and to your point on a 2.7 percent mortgage rate, there's no incentive for you... Or there's limited incentive for you to sell that home, pay off that 2.7 percent mortgage rate, buy a new home at higher prices, at a much higher mortgage rate. That has – I know you don't like the word stuck – but it has been what's gotten this housing market kind of mired in its current situation. Price is very protective. Activity pretty low. Ellen Zentner: Jim, we've been talking about all the affordability issues and so let's set mortgage rates aside and talk about policy proposals. Are there specific policies that could also help on the affordability front? James Egan: So, there's a number of things that we get questions about on a pretty regular basis. Things like GSE reform, first time home buyer tax credits, things that could potentially spur supply. And look, the devil is in the details here. My colleague, Jay Bacow, has done a lot of work on GSE reform and what we're really focusing on there is the nature of the guarantee as well as the future of regulation and capital charges. For instance, U.S. banks own approximately one-third of the agency mortgage-backed securities market. Any changes to regulatory capital as a result of GSE reform, that could have implications for their demand, and that's going to have implications on mortgage rates, right? First time home buyer tax credits. We have seen those before – the spring of 2008 to 2010, and if we use that as a case study, we did see a temporary rise in home sales and a pause in the pace with which home prices were falling. But the effects there were temporary. Sales and prices wouldn't hit their post housing crisis lows until after those programs expired. Ellen Zentner: Right. So, you were incentivized to buy the house. You get the credit; you buy the house. But then unbeknownst to any economist out there, housing valuations continued to fall. James Egan: You could argue that it maybe pulled some demand forward. And so, you saw a lot of it concentrated and then the absence of that demand afterwards. And then on the supply side, there are a number of different programs we have touched on, some of them in these podcasts in the past. And then some of those questions become what needs to go through Congress, what is more kind of local municipality versus federal government. But look, the devil's in the details. It's an incredibly interesting housing market. Probably one that's going to be the source of many podcasts to come. So, Ellen, given all these challenges facing the U.S. housing market. Where do you see the biggest opportunities for retail investors? Ellen Zentner: So, in our recent note Housing in the Next Decade, we took a look at single family renting; you and I have talked about how that's likely to still be in favor for some time. REITs with exposure to select U.S. rental markets; what about senior housing? That is something that you've done deep research on, as well. Senior and affordable housing providers, home construction and materials companies. What about building more sustainable homes with a good deal of the climate change that we're seeing. And financial technology firms that offer flexible financing solutions. So, these are some of the things that we think could be in play as we think about housing over the long term. James Egan: Ellen, thank you for all your insights. It's been a pleasure to have you on the podcast. And I guess there's a key takeaway for investors here. Housing isn't just about where we live, it's about where the economy is headed. Ellen Zentner: Exactly. Always a pleasure to be on the show. Thanks, Jim. James Egan: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

A move back into small-cap stocks has helped momentum of BigBear.ai (BBAI), says George Tsilis. He also notes the data analysis company getting attention from the U.S. Navy as a catalyst pushing the stock higher. George talks about the macro and technical moves surrounding BigBear.ai that attach it to thematic shifts in the A.I. narrative.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Guest: Oktay Kavrak, Director of Comms and Strategy at Leverage Shares & IncomeSharesCompany: Leverage Shares ETPsWebsite: www.leverageshares.com / www.incomeshares.com AUM: ~$2 Billion Bio:Oktay Kavrak is the Director of Communications & Strategy at Leverage Shares, the pioneer in single-stock ETPs, and IncomeShares, Europe's first options-based income ETPs on single stocks, indices, and commodities. He has been instrumental in bringing some of the most popular products to the London Stock Exchange, including the most traded ETP for three consecutive years.A CFA Charterholder, Oktay has built his career across banking, fund administration, and product strategy before taking on his current leadership role in the ETF industry. He has been quoted in Bloomberg, the Financial Times, CNN, and ETF Stream, and has appeared on CNBC, Benzinga, and others.Known for making complex financial products easy to understand, Oktay has built a following of more than 30,000 investors and professionals by sharing digestible, data-driven content across social media. When he's not deep in markets, he reminds himself - and his audience - that life is too short to overthink the petty things.Disclaimer:The views expressed in this interview are Oktay's own and not necessarily those of Leverage Shares. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Always do your own research.

In Episode 437 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Marvin Barth, founder of Thematic Markets and former Chief Economist for International Affairs at the U.S. Treasury, who previously served at the Federal Reserve and the Bank for International Settlements and has led global macro and FX strategy on both the sell side and the buy side. Marvin Barth and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation unpacking his concepts of “localization,” “being is believing,” and “global entropy,” and how these thematic frameworks can help us understand changes in growth, inflation expectations, interest rates, the underperformance of emerging markets, the limits of monetary policy, and the weakening of American soft and hard power. The second hour begins with a conversation about the three pillars of Western primacy—mythology, economic dominance, and military superiority—and why Marvin believes that each of these has already peaked. They discuss how rivals to America's Post-World War II Liberal Order have used asymmetric warfare to thwart the West's dominance and are now in position to offer something radically different—a new sociopolitical and economic model that can rival Western capitalism and democracy. The two also explore scenarios ranging from a rapid dissolution of the global system to the managed emergence of a new bipolar order with two sets of economic and political ideologies, supply networks, and technological standards. This includes a broad discussion about portfolio construction, the role of the dollar, and how the broad international adoption of stablecoins could prove to be one of the most consequential stories of the coming decades. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you'd like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed today's episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, Stitcher, SoundCloud, CastBox, or via our RSS Feed Writing us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Joining our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io. Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 08/26/2025

On this episode of The Capitalist Investor, hosts Tony Zabiegala and Derek Gabrielsen unpack the rise of thematic investing. From meme stocks and AI ETFs to clean energy and crypto, investors are piling into trendy themes hoping to “get rich now.” But is thematic investing a smart long-term strategy — or just a dangerous distraction? Tony and Derek explore the psychology driving this movement, the risks of chasing hype, how to evaluate ETFs, and why balanced portfolios still matter most. 

Skylar Haws has dedicated over a decade to serving youth in various church callings, including Young Men's President and Priest Quorum Advisor. He has also taught early morning seminary and worked as a youth Sunday School teacher. Skylar's passion for youth leadership stems from his own experiences and a desire to help young men grow spiritually and personally. He resides in Saratoga Springs with his family, where he balances his church responsibilities with work and family life. Links

Our U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver discusses what back-to-school spending trends reveal about consumer sentiment and the U.S. economy.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist here at Morgan Stanley.Today -- we're going back to school! A look at the second biggest shopping season in the U.S.. And what it can tell us about the broader market.It's Friday, August 8th, at 10am in New York.It's that time of the year again. With parents, caregivers and students making shopping lists for back-to-school supplies. And it's not just limited to school supplies and backpacks. It probably also includes laptops or tablets, smart phones and, of course, the latest clothes. For investors, understanding how consumers are feeling—and spending—right now is critical. Why? Because back-to-school spending tells us a lot about consumer sentiment. And this month's data has been sending some mixed but meaningful signals.Let's start with the mood on Main Street. According to our latest proprietary consumer survey, confidence in the economy is sliding. Just under one-third of consumers think the economy will improve over the next six months—which is down from 37 percent last month and 44 percent in January. And that's a pretty big drop from the start of the year. Meanwhile, half of all consumers expect the economy to get worse.Household finances are also feeling the squeeze. While around 40 percent expect their financial situation to improve, closer to 30 percent expect it to worsen. The net score is still positive, but down from last month and even more so from January.The takeaway? Consumers are feeling the pinch—and inflation remains their number one concern.We did see a bit of a brighter picture though around tariff fears. And tariffs are definitely still a worry, but we're past that point of peak fear. This month, over a third of consumers said they're “very concerned” about tariffs—down from 43 percent in April, post Liberation Day. And fewer people are planning to cut back on spending because of them: that number is just 30 percent now, compared to over 40 percent a few months ago.In fact, almost 30 percent of consumers actually plan to spend more despite tariffs. That's a sign of resilience—and perhaps necessity—as families prepare for the school year.And that brings us back to back-to-school shopping, which is a relative bright spot.Nearly half of U.S. consumers have already shopped or are planning to shop for the school year—right in line with what we saw in previous years. Among those shoppers, 47 percent are spending more than last year, while only 14 percent plan to spend less. That's a significant net positive at 34 percent.What's in the cart? More than 90 percent of shoppers are buying apparel, footwear, and school supplies. Apparel leads, followed by footwear, followed by supplies.If we look beyond the classroom at other things people are spending on, travel is still a priority. Around 60 percent of consumers plan to travel over the next six months, with visiting friends and family as the top reason. That's consistent with where we were a year ago and shows that experiences still matter—even in uncertain times.The big takeaway from all this data: Consumer sentiment is cooling, but spending—especially spending for seasonal needs—is holding up. Back-to-school categories like apparel and footwear are outperforming, making them potential bright spots for retailers.As we head into fall, keep your eyes on U.S. consumers. They're not just shopping for school—they're also signaling where the market could be headed next.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

The dollar's bearish run is likely to affect U.S. equity markets. Michelle Weaver, our U.S. Thematic & Equity Strategist, and David Adams, our Head of G10 FX Strategy, discuss what investors should consider.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity strategist at Morgan Stanley. David Adams: And I'm Dave Adams, head of G10 FX Strategy here at Morgan Stanley. Michelle Weaver: Our colleagues were recently on the show to talk about the impact of the weak dollar on European equities. And today we wanted to continue that conversation by looking at what a weak U.S. dollar means for the U.S. equity market.It's Thursday, July 17th at 2pm in London. Morgan Stanley has a bearish view on the U.S. dollar. And this is something our chief global FX strategist James Lord spoke about recently on the show. But Dave, I want to go over the outlook again, since Morgan Stanley has a really differentiated view on this. Do you think the dollar will continue to depreciate during the remainder of the year? David Adams: We do, and we do. We have been dollar bears this whole year, and it has been very out of consensus. But we do think the weakness will continue and our forecasts remain one of the most bearish on the street for the dollar. The dollar has had its worst first half of the year since 1973, and the dollar index has fallen about 10 percent year to date, but we think we're at the intermission rather than the finale. The second act for the dollar weakening trend should come over the next 12 months as U.S. interest rates and U.S. growth rates converge to that of the rest of the world. And FX hedging of existing U.S. assets held by foreign investors adds further negative risk premium to the dollar. The result is that we're looking for yet another 10 percent drop in the dollar by the end of next year. Michelle Weaver: That's really interesting and a differentiated view for Morgan Stanley. When I think about one of the key themes that we've been following this year, it's the multipolar world or a shift away from globalization to more localized spheres of influence. This is an important element to the dollar story.How have tariffs impacted currency and your outlook? David Adams: Tariffs play a key role in this framework. Tariffs have a positive impact on inflation, but a negative impact on U.S. growth. But the inflation impact comes faster and the negative impact on growth and employment that comes a bit later. This puts the Fed in a really tough spot and it's why our economists are pretty out of consensus in calling for both no cuts this year, and a much faster and deeper pace of cuts in 2026. The results for me in FX land is that the market is underestimating just how low the Fed will go and just how low U.S. rates will go, in general. Tariffs play a big role in helping to generate this rate convergence, and rate differentials are a fundamental driver of currencies. The more that U.S. rates are going to fall, the more likely it is that the dollar keeps falling too. Michelle Weaver: Tariffs have certainly impacted heavily on our view for the U.S. equity market and it's something that no asset class is not impacted by really. Given the volatility and the magnitude of the move we've seen this year, are foreign investors hedging more? David Adams: We do think they've started hedging more, but the bulk of the move is really ahead of us. Foreign investors own a massive amount of U.S. assets. European investors alone own $8 trillion of U.S. bonds and stocks, and that's only about a quarter of total foreign ownership of U.S. assets. Now when foreign investors buy U.S. assets, they have to sell their currency and buy the dollar. But at some point, you're going to have to bring that money back, so you're going to have to sell the dollar and buy back your home currency again. If the dollar rises over this period, you've made a gain, congratulations. But if it falls, you've made a loss. Now a lot of foreign investors will hedge this currency risk, and they'll use instruments like forwards and options to do so. But in the case of the U.S., we found that a lot of foreign investors really choose not to hedge this exposure, particularly on the equity side. And this reflects both a view that the dollar would appreciate; so, they want to take that gain. But it also reflects the dollar's negative correlation to equities. So, what's changing now? Well, a lot of investors are starting to rethink this decision and add those FX hedges, which really means dollar selling. Now, there's a lot of factors motivating their decision to hedge. One, of course is price. If U.S. rates are going to converge meaningfully to the rest of the world – like we expect – that flattens out the forward curve and makes those forwards cheaper to buy to hedge. But the breakdown in correlations that we've seen more broadly, the uptick in policy volatility and uncertainty, and the sell off in the dollar that we've already seen year to date, have all increased the relative benefit of FX hedging. Now, Michelle, I often get asked the question, that's a nice story, but is hedging actually picking up? And the answer is yes. The initial data suggests that hedging has picked up in the second quarter, but because of the size of U.S. asset holdings and given how much it was initially unhedged, we could be talking about a significant long-term flow. We have a lot more to go from here. Michelle Weaver: Yeah. David Adams: We estimated that just over half of Europe's $8 trillion holdings are unhedged. And if hedge ratios pick up even a little bit, we could be talking about hundreds of billions of dollars in flow. And that's just from Europe. But Michelle, I wanted to ask you. What do you think a weaker dollar means for U.S. companies? Michelle Weaver: The weaker dollar is a substantial underappreciated tailwind for U.S. multinational earnings, and this is because these companies sell products overseas and then get paid in foreign currency. So, when the dollar's down, converting that foreign revenue back into dollars, gives them a nice boost, something that domestic only companies aren't going to benefit from. And this is called the translation effect. Recently we've seen earnings revisions breadth, essentially a measure of whether analysts are getting more optimistic or pessimistic start to turn up after hitting typical cycle lows. And based on our house view for the dollar, there's likely more upside ahead based on that relationship for revisions over the next year. David Adams: Interesting. Interesting. And is this something you're hearing about from companies on things like earnings calls? Michelle Weaver: No, this dynamic isn't being highlighted much on earnings calls. Typically, companies talk about foreign exchange effects when the dollar's strengthening and provides a headwind for corporate earnings. But when we're in the reverse scenario like we are now with the dollar weakening and getting a boost to earnings, we tend to not hear as much discussion, which is why I called this an underappreciated tailwind. And according to your team's forecast, we still have a substantial amount of weakening to go and thus a substantial amount of benefit for U.S. companies to go. David Adams: Yeah, that makes sense. And who do you think benefits most from this dynamic? Are there any sectors or investment styles that look particularly good here? Michelle Weaver: Mm hmm. So generally, it's the large cap companies that stand to gain the most from this dynamic, and that's because they do more business overseas. If we look at foreign revenue exposure for different indices, around 40 percent of the S & P 500's revenue comes from outside the U.S., while that's just 22 percent for the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index. But the impact of a weaker dollar isn't the same across the board. Foreign revenue exposure and earnings revision sensitivity to the dollar vary quite a bit, when we look at the sector and the industry group level. From a foreign revenue exposure perspective, Tech Materials and Industrials have the highest foreign revenue exposure and thus can benefit a lot from that dynamic we've been talking about. When we look from an earnings revisions perspective, Capital Goods, Materials, Software and Tech Hardware have the most earnings revisions, sensitivity to a weaker dollar, so they could also benefit there. David Adams: So, I guess this brings us to the million-dollar question that all of our listeners are asking. What do we do with this information? What does this mean for investors? Michelle Weaver: So as the dollar, continues to weaken, investors should keep a close eye on the industries and companies poised to benefit the most – because in this multipolar world, currency dynamics are not just a macro backdrop, but an important driver of earnings and equity performance.Dave, thank you for taking the time to talk. And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

The American consumer isn't simply pulling back. They are changing the way they spend – and save. Our U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver digs into the data. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist.Today, the U.S. consumer. What's changing about the ways Americans spend, save and feel about the future?It's Monday, July 7th at 10am in London.As markets digest mixed signals – whether that's easing inflation, changing politics, and persistent noise around tariffs – U.S. consumers are recalibrating. Under the surface of headline numbers, a more complex story is unfolding about the ways Americans are not just reacting but adapting to macro challenges.First, I want to start with a big picture. Data from our latest consumer survey shows that consumer sentiment has stabilized, even as uncertainty around tariffs persists, especially into these rolling July deadlines. Inflation remains the top concern for most. But the good news is that it's trending lower. This month more than half of respondents cited inflation as their primary concern, a slight decrease from last month and a year ago. Now, that's a subtle but a meaningful decline suggesting consumers may be adjusting their expectations rather than bracing for continued price shocks. At the same time though political concerns are on the rise. More than 40 percent of consumers now list the U.S. political environment as a major worry. That's slightly up from last month; and not surprisingly concern around geopolitical conflicts has also jumped from a month ago.Now, when we break this down by income levels, we see some interesting trends. Inflation is the top concern across all income groups, except for those earning more than $150,000. For them, politics takes the top spot. Lower income households, though, are more focused on paying rent and debts, while higher income groups are more concerned about their investments.As for tariffs, concern remains high but stable. About 40 percent of consumers are very worried about tariffs and another 25 percent are moderately so. But if we look under the surface, it's really showing us a political divide. 63 percent of liberals are very concerned, compared to just 23 percent of conservatives who say they're very concerned.Despite these worries, though, fewer people overall are planning to cut back on spending. Only about a third say they'll spend less due to tariffs, which is down quite a bit from earlier this year. Meanwhile, about a quarter plan to spend more, and roughly a third don't expect to change their plans at all.This resilience points to the notable behavioral trend I mentioned at the start. Consumers are not just reacting, they're adapting. Looking at the broader economy, consumer confidence is holding steady according to our survey, although it's slightly down from last month. But when it comes to household finances, the outlook is more positive with a significant number expecting their finances to improve and fewer expecting them to worsen – a net positive.Savings are also showing some resilience. The average consumer has several months of savings, slightly up from last year. Spending intentions are stable with nearly a third of consumers planning to spend more next month while fewer planned to spend less. And when it comes to big ticket items, more than half of U.S. consumers are planning a major purchase in the next three months, including vehicles, appliances, and vacations.Speaking of vacations, summer travel season is here and I'm looking forward to taking a trip soon. Around 60 percent of consumers are planning to travel in the next six months, with visiting friends and family being the top reason.So, what's the biggest takeaway for investors?Despite ongoing concerns about inflation, politics and tariffs, U.S. consumers are showing remarkable resilience. It's a nuanced picture, but one that overall suggests stability in the face of uncertainty.Thanks for listening. I hope you enjoyed the show, and if you did, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Wanna hear a lil secret?You (likely) have no clue what custom GPTs are capable of inside of ChatGPT. OpenAI just updated their capabilities, yet no one's talking about it. Why? The original hype and hoopla from their late 2023 launched fizzled and faded away, and now many AI users have written GPTs off. Big mistake. You won't believe what the newly upgraded GPTs are capable of.Newsletter: Sign up for our free daily newsletterMore on this Episode: Episode PageJoin the discussion: Thoughts on this? Join the convo.Upcoming Episodes: Check out the upcoming Everyday AI Livestream lineupWebsite: YourEverydayAI.comEmail The Show: info@youreverydayai.comConnect with Jordan on LinkedInTopics Covered in This Episode:Custom GPTs Launch & Initial ReceptionUpdated OpenAI Custom GPT CapabilitiesExpanded Model Support for Custom GPTsBusiness Applications of Custom GPT UpdatesLive Demo of New Custom GPT FeaturesInsight Synthesizer GPT's Unique AbilitiesMeeting Actionizer GPT for Business EfficiencyPersonalizing with the Updated GPT ModelsTimestamps:00:00 "Upgraded Custom GPTs Revolution"04:52 GPT Building: Web Access Only06:46 "Podcast Rambling Concerns"09:56 Benefits of Using Custom GPTs13:18 Using Custom GPTs and GPT Store17:16 Simple AI Tool Usage Guide21:32 Custom ChatGPT Limitations Explained25:17 Exploring AI's Efficiency in Tasks27:06 "AI Impact Dashboard for 2025"32:03 GPT-4 vs. GPT-3: Agentic Abilities35:33 Reasoning Models Enhance Meeting Analysis36:53 AI Meeting Summary Features40:40 Personalized NVIDIA Stock Insights42:38 GPT Custom Models: New DevelopmentsKeywords:Custom GPTs, OpenAI updates, Expanded model support, No code creation, Custom actions, GPT store, Enterprise rollout, Recommended model, O3 model, O3 Pro model, GPT-4.5, Data storytelling, AI humanizer, Multimodal capabilities, Sentiment analysis, Thematic clustering, Research analyst, Meeting actionizer, Personalized learning architect, Financial snapshot, Web search, Canvas mode, Python coding, Boolean search, AGSentic reasoning, Chain of thought, Knowledge files, Fine-tuning, Domain expertise, Automated workflows, Generative AI, Creative marketing, Information synthesis, Meeting analysis, Decision automation, Webhooks, APIs, Knowledge tokenization.Send Everyday AI and Jordan a text message. (We can't reply back unless you leave contact info) Ready for ROI on GenAI? Go to youreverydayai.com/partner

Our Thematics and U.S. Economics analysts Michelle Weaver and Arunima Sinha discuss how American consumers are planning to spend as they consider tariffs, inflation and potential new tax policies. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, U.S. Thematic and Equity strategist.Arunima Sinha: And I'm Arunima Sinha from the Global and U.S. Economics Teams.Michelle Weaver: Today – an encouraging update on the U.S. consumer.It's Tuesday, June 3rd at 10am in New York.Arunima, the last couple of months have been challenging not only for global markets, but also for everyday people and for individual households; and we heard pretty mixed information on the consumer throughout earning season. Quite a few different companies highlighted consumers being more choiceful, being more value oriented. All this to say is we're getting a little bit of a mixed message.In your opinion, how healthy is the U.S. consumer right now?Arunima Sinha: So, Michelle, I'm glad we're starting with the sort of up upbeat part of the consumer. The macro data on the consumer has been holding up pretty well so far. In the first quarter of [20]25, consumer spending has actually been running at a similar pace as the first quarter of [20]24. Nominal consumption spending grew 5.5 percent on a year-on-year basis. Goods were up almost 4 percent. Services were up more than 6 percent.So, all of that was good. What our takeaway was that we had a lot of strength in good spending, and that did probably reflect some of the pull forward on the back of tariff news. But that pace of growth suggests that there is an aggregate consumer. They have healthy balance sheets, and they're willing to spend.And then what's driving that consumption growth from our point of view. We think that labor market compensation has been running at a pretty steady pace so far. So more than 5.5 percent quarterly analyzed. PCE inflation has been running at just over 3 percent. And so even though equity markets did see some greater volatility, they didn't seem to impact the consumer at least in the first quarter of data. And so, we've had that consumer in a pretty good shape.But with all of this in the background, we know, tariffs have been in the news, and tariff fears have weighed heavily on consumer sentiment. But then tariff headlines have also become more positive lately, and consumers might be feeling more optimistic. What's your data showing?Michelle Weaver: So that really depends on what data you're looking at. We saw a pretty big rebound in consumer sentiment if you look at the Conference Board survey. But then we saw flat sentiment, when you look at the University of Michigan survey. These two surveys have some different questions in them, different subcomponents.But my favorite way to track consumer sentiment is our own proprietary consumer survey, which did show a pretty big pickup in sentiment towards the economy last month. And we saw sentiment rebound significantly for both conservatives and liberals.So, this wasn't just a matter of one political party, you know, having a change of opinion. Both sides did see an improvement in sentiment. Although consumer sentiment for conservatives improved off a much higher base. The percent of people reporting being very concerned about tariffs also fell this month. We saw that move from 43 percent to 38 percent after the reduction in tariffs on China. So, people are, you know, concerned a little bit less there. And that's been a really big thing people are watching.Arunima Sinha: Feeling better about the news is great. Are they actually planning to spend more?Michelle Weaver: So encouragingly we did also see a big rebound in consumers short term spending outlooks in the survey. 33 percent of consumers expect to spend more next month and 17 percent expect to spend less.So that gives us a net of positive 16 percent. This is in line with the five-year average level we saw there, and up really substantially from last month's reading of 5 percent. So, 5 percent to 16 percent. That's a pretty big improvement.We also saw spending plans rise across all income groups. though we did see the biggest pickup for higher income consumers and that figure moved from 12 percent to 31 percent. Additionally, we saw longer term spending plans – so what people are planning to spend over the next six months – also improve across all the categories we look at.Arunima Sinha: And were there any specific changes about how the consumers were responding to the tariff headlines?Michelle Weaver: Yeah, so people reported pulling forward some purchases, due to fear of tariff driven price increases. So, people were planning for this, similarly to what we saw with companies. They were doing a little bit of stockpiling. Consumers were doing this as well. So, our survey showed that over half of people said they accelerated some purchases over the past month to try and get ahead of potential tariff related price increases.And this did skew higher among upper income consumers. The categories that people cited at the top of the list for pull forward are non-perishable groceries, household items. So, both of those things you need in your day-to-day life. And then clothing and apparel as well, which I thought was interesting. But that's been one thing that's been in the news a lot that's heavily manufactured overseas.So, people were thinking about that. And this does align overall with our March survey data, where we asked what categories people were most concerned about seeing price increases. So, their behavior did line up with what they were concerned about in March.Arunima, your turn on tariffs now. The reason tariffs have been on consumer's minds is because of what they might mean for price levels and inflation. Throughout earning season, we heard a lot of companies talking about raising prices to offset the cost of tariffs. What has this looked like from an economist's perspective? Has this actually started to show up in the inflation data yet?Arunima Sinha: So not quite yet, and that's something that, as you might expect, we're tracking very, very closely. So, one of the things that our team did was to think about which types of goods or services were going to be impacted by inflation. And so, we think that that first order effects are going to be on goods. And we think that the effects could start to show up in the May data, but we really see that sequential pace of inflation starting to step up starting June. And then in our third quarter inflation estimate, we see that number peaking for the year. So, in the third quarter, we think that core PCE inflation number is going to be about 4.5 percent Q1-Q analyzed.Michelle Weaver: And then aside from tariffs and inflation, how are people going to be affected by a fiscal policy, specifically the tax bill that just passed the house?Arunima Sinha: So, the house version of the bill has government spending reductions that can be quite regressive for different cohorts of the consumer. So, we have, reductions around the Medicaid program, cuts to the SNAP program as well as possible elimination of the income driven loans repayment plans. So, all of these would have a pretty adverse impact on the lower income and the middle-income consumers.This could be – but will likely not be fully offset by the removal of taxes, on tips and overtime. And then on the other side, the higher income consumers could benefit from some of that increase in SALT caps. But overall, the jury is still out on how the aggregate consumer will be affected.Michelle Weaver: So, taking this all into account, the effects of fiscal policy, of tariff policy, of labor market income – what's your overall outlook on U.S. consumption for the rest of the year?Arunima Sinha: So, we recently published our mid-year outlook for U.S. economics and our forecast for consumption spending over 2025 and [20]26 does see the consumer slowing. And this is really due to three factors. The first is on the back of those greater tariffs and the uncertainty around them and the fact that we have slowing net immigration, we're going to be expecting a slowdown in the labor market. As the pace of hiring slows, you have a slower growth in labor market income. And that really is the main driver of aggregate consumption spending. And then as we talked about, we are expecting that pass through of higher tariffs into inflation, and that's going to impact real spending. And then finally the uncertainty around tariffs, the volatilities and equity markets could weigh on consumer spending; and may actually push the upper income cohorts, the big drivers of consumption spending in the economy, to have higher precautionary savings.And so, with all of that, we see our nominal consumption spending growth slowing down to about 3.9 percent by the end of this year.Michelle Weaver: Well a little unfortunate to wrap up on a more negative note, but we are seeing, you know, mixed messages – and some more positive data in the near term, at least. Arunima, thank you for taking the time to talk.Arunima Sinha: Thanks so much for having me, Michelle.Michelle Weaver: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.