Investment Insights

In the final episode of our Investment Insights series, Dawn Li Wan Po is joined my Marco Stroili to look back on what has been a turbulent first quarter for markets. Marco starts by outlining what our key calls for 2022 were at the start of the year when looking towards what we expected to be more self-sustaining markets. However, following the events of Q1 – namely the Russian invasion of Ukraine, central bank rate normalisation, and sustained high inflation – markets got off to a rockier start than first expected. Dawn then takes a deeper look at the actions of the central banks in the face of robust economic activity, strengthening labour markets and, perhaps most importantly, sustained inflation growth. Next, Marco explains the market reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February, which primarily focused on commodity prices and investor sentiment. Finally, Marco provides an overview of the key calls made by Julius Baer's research teams across Fixed Income and Equities. As a reminder, this was our final episode in the series as we will be joining our global Beyond Markets podcast from April. If you'd like to continue hearing our insights on what is happening in markets, please do subscribe to Beyond Markets on Spotify, Apple Podcasts or your preferred podcast provider.

Some news on the podcast itself is that we are merging with our sister-podcast at Julius Baer, Beyond Markets, from April. If you'd like to continue hearing from our experts on what's happening in global markets, please do subscribe to Beyond Markets on Spotify, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

In the latest episode, Mark Winterburn is joined by Thanh Cung from the UK Portfolio Management desk, where they discuss their thoughts on the economic fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They outline the particularly high volatility in commodities over the past week before discussing the mixed reaction in developed market equities and the flows into safe-haven assets. Finally, Mark and Thanh both outline what they've been doing in their advisory and discretionary portfolios respectively in response to the ongoing conflict.

In this episode, Felicity Selcoe from the UK Advisory desk is joined by Portfolio Manager, Aneka Beneby to discuss the tumultuous start to the year for global markets. They discuss persisting inflation, both from a policy standpoint and reaction from global businesses, the geopolitical tensions in Russia and Ukraine and the uncertainty this is causing in commodity markets, and finally our current portfolio positioning.

In our latest Investment Insights podcast Mark Winterburn (Head of Investment Advisory UK) is joined by Dawn Li Wan Po (Senior Discretionary Portfolio Manager) to discuss recent market volatility. The two share our thoughts on how to navigate current market turbulence, the current issues between Russia and Ukraine and how these are affecting financial markets and our assessment of how the earnings season has gone so far.

The first episode of our Investment Insights podcast for 2022 begins with a review of the major market moves we have seen so far this year conducted by Mark Winterburn (Head of Investment Advisory UK) and Marco Stroili (Senior Investment Adviser). Topics discussed include the current market anxiety around the rising interest rate environment along with our view on its likely effects on equity markets, a discussion on our expectations for the current earnings season and the current backdrop and challenges for China. Mark concludes with a summary of our Market Outlook's key messages to clients.

Our final Investment Insights podcast for 2021 begins with a review of the trends we have seen this year conducted by Mark Winterburn (Head of Investment Advisory UK) and Ed Raymond (Head of Portfolio Management). Topics discussed include the macroeconomic and inflation backdrop, asset class summaries and the themes that have affected both advisory and discretionary portfolios. The conversation also includes our outlook for 2022. Ed discusses how discretionary portfolios are positioned for the year ahead along with the key risks that he anticipates. Mark concludes with a summary of the main messages his team are communicating to clients within advisory portfolios.

In this week's episode of our Investment Insights podcast, Mark Winterburn (Head of Investment Advisory UK) and Thanh Cung (Discretionary Portfolio Manager) discuss our views in relation to the recent US Federal Reserve communication on transitory inflation and what this means for the reduction of bond purchases and interest rate tightening. Next, Thanh moves onto the US labour market and how the last payrolls number may not tell the whole picture on the employment backdrop. Finally, the two look closer at the opportunities that have emerged from the market sell-off (and subsequent recovery) in relation to the omicron covid variant and the Federal Reserve's recent communications. Mark concludes with some comments on small cap stocks and why the recent volatility in our view presents a buying opportunity in this space.

The latest episode of our Investment Insights podcast begins with a discussion between Mark Winterburn (Head of Investment Advisory UK) and Marco Stroili (Senior Investment Adviser) on the market's reaction to the reappointment of Jerome Powell as Fed Chairman for a second term and linked to this our view on the US inflationary backdrop. The two then move on to the news that Europe is experiencing the highest level of new coronavirus cases since January and the economic impact we predict this to have. Finally, Julius Baer's Eurozone country equity rating was introduced last week, so Marco provides an explanation as to why we recommend overweighting equity markets in France and Italy.

In our latest episode, Felicity Selcoe, a regular on the podcast, is joined by a newcomer to the team and impact investing specialist, Dr Nicolas Baumgartner. This particular episode was recorded from Glasgow at the UN Climate Change Conference, COP26, and covers the main headlines from the conference, an overview of what impact investing is, and investment themes related to the conference outcomes and greenwashing.

In our latest episode, Mark Winterburn is joined again by Senior Portfolio Manager, Dawn Li Wan Po, to discuss what's happening in markets. Today the conversation starts Q3 earnings season, which is proving to be much better than initially expected – particularly after the previous two outstanding quarters. Data which is coming in below expectations, however, is the Chinese GDP statistics and we provide some context as to why this is and where the investment opportunities lie within China. We then move on to discuss where they would be looking for yield in the fixed income space – highlighting that now is probably not the time for investors to be chasing yield at the expense of credit quality. And finally, with inflation concerns continuing to dominate headlines, we look closer to home and what the Bank of England is indicating when it comes to interest rates.

In this episode, Mark Winterburn is joined by his colleague on the UK Advisory Desk, Marco Stroili, to discuss what is happening in today's markets. They first touch on the equity markets, which seem to be in 'wait and see' mode currently, and the contributing factors to this - notably the Fed's indication of tapering asset purchases. However, while volatility may continue into October and beyond, the long-term outlook may not be so gloomy. Mark and Marco then move onto the causes of the volatility seen in Sterling, the recent news of the rise in the US debt ceiling, inflation pressures and, finally, a preview of the Q3 earnings season.

In our latest episode, Mark Winterburn is joined by Dawn Li Wan Po, a senior portfolio manager in the UK, to discuss the investment themes we like best for our end-of-year Market Outlook, namely healthy living, future mobility and the circular economy. In their discussion, Mark and Dawn also highlight the current energy crunch, which continues to dominate headlines, whether the fallout surrounding Evergrande Group represents the Chinese market as a whole, and recent news out of the world's central banks on interest rates and asset purchase tapering.

In the latest episode, Mark is joined again by Thanh where they discuss the recent announcement from the European Central Bank of the tapering of asset purchases from Q4 this year, the factors contributing to a potential mid-cycle slowdown, and how we are positioned in portfolios moving forward.

In this episode, Mark Winterburn, Head of UK Advisory Services, is joined by his colleague from the Advisory Desk, Felicity Selcoe, to discuss the learnings from the recent central bankers' meeting at Jackson Hole and the knock-on effect on equity markets. Turning to the bond market, Felicity outlines our selective approach to fixed income investments as the best of the corporate bond rally is likely behind us. Finally, Mark and Felicity touch on a regular topic of discussion in recent podcasts, China, and where they see long-term opportunities in the market.

In our latest episode, Edward Raymond, Head of Portfolio Management, is joined by Dawn Li Wan Po, a Senior Portfolio Manager responsible for Julius Baer's Global Equity Income Mandate. During their conversation, they discuss the wrap up of the latest earnings season, what was driving share price movement, how portfolio positioning at Julius Baer has been tweaked this year and what the future looks like for earnings growth.

In our latest Investment Insights Podcast, Mark Winterburn is joined by one our Senior Investment Advisors in the UK, Marco Stroili to discuss the recent regulatory news in Chinese equity markets and our revised house view in this area, the good numbers coming out of the Q2 earnings season and the ECB announcement that it will be lifting the restriction on dividends and share buybacks.

In this episode, Mark is joined again by Thanh Cung from Julius Baer's Portfolio Management team. We hear their thoughts on the start of the Q2 earnings season - where we expect to see record high earnings growth, the continued rotation in equity markets - a key theme in our mid-year market outlook - and most notably the reversal in the so called 'reflation trade' seen in Q2. To close the discussion on equities, Mark and Thanh also discuss Julius Baer's recent downgrade of the value segment of equities - comprising sectors such as energy - to neutral. Finally, following recent talks among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries - OPEC - and other key oil producers such as Russia to lift oil production, Thanh explains what impact this could have on the current oil market cycle.

In our latest Investment Insights Podcast, Mark Winterburn is joined by Felicity Selcoe from the UK Advisory desk to discuss reasons why we continue to be constructive on equity markets. Felicity and Mark then go on to discuss our recent upgrade of emerging market hard currency debt. This is followed by an assessment of what is happening in China and its equity market, along with our views on this key emerging market.

In our latest Investment Insights podcast, Mark Winterburn is joined by one of Julius Baer's UK Portfolio Managers, Thanh Cung, to discuss the key points from recent Federal Reserve meeting and the market's reaction. One surprise from this meeting was the signaling of a potential rate hike by Fed members earlier than previously expected. Thanh and Mark then go on to discuss the equity positioning in our UK portfolios in response to the interest rate and inflation outlook, with a particular reference to our preferred defensive sector, healthcare.

In this week's Investment Insights Podcast, Tom Claridge is joined by Felicity Selcoe from the UK Advisory Desk to discuss the continued inflation worries, as well as the new global taxation rules agreed by the G7 and the collapse of talks on infrastructure spending between President Biden and the Republican Party.

In our latest Investment Insights podcast, Tom Claridge and Mark Winterburn discuss the key topics from Julius Baer's Mid-Year Market Outlook. The overarching theme is 'More Rotation, Less Direction' and Mark and Tom discuss what this means for investors in both the equity and fixed income spaces. Focus is also given to the sectors that are set to benefit most from the 'relief spending' set to sweep through global economies - such as retail, tourism and small-caps, particularly in the US given the large fiscal stimulus. Mark also highlights other 'Covid-19 winners' that are set to continue that success, namely sustainable and adaptive companies.

In this episode, Tom Claridge joins Mark Winterburn to discuss the continued economic recovery in the US, the growing inflation story and what conclusions we can draw from the very strong earnings season we've seen this quarter. Before closing, Mark also comments on the recent ransomware attack on the US fuel supply chain and why cybersecurity remains a popular investment theme.

In our latest episode, Mark Winterburn is joined by Julius Baer's Head of Next Generation Research, Carsten Menke. In their conversation, they discuss the trends that have emerged from the 'stay-at-home economy' and the future of the world's cities in reaction to the pandemic. They also discuss how the rise of 'smart cities' can go some way to solve many of the resourcing challenges the world is facing by creating a 'circular economy'. Carsten ends by sharing areas of opportunity from an investment standpoint that may benefit from this trend.

In this episode, podcast regular Mark Winterburn is joined by Julius Baer's UK Head of Private Clients, Alan Hooks, to discuss our forecasts for the global economy as lockdowns begin to ease, the upcoming US earnings season, and the oil market. Julius Baer's research team has also recently made changes to its views on the materials and consumer defensive sectors, which Mark provides some more detail on.

In this episode, Tom and Mark take a look back at the big stories from the first quarter of 2021, namely the market reaction to the Biden administration, the rise in US Treasury Bond yields, the continued equity market recovery from the lows of last year and whether the rotation from growth to value stocks will continue into Q2 and beyond. They also discuss potential increase in US Corporate Tax rates, the economic impact of the blockage of the Suez Canal and the recent family office failure.

In this episode, Tom Claridge and Mark Winterburn discuss the huge $1.9tn stimulus bill out of the US, the equity and fixed income market reactions to rising US treasury yields, our upgraded research view on India and finally their view on SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies).

In this episode, Tom Claridge is joined by Tim Gagie from Julius Baer's FX Advisory Team in Geneva where they discuss the rise of Sterling at the start of 2021, a preview of the UK's Budget announcement, the US Dollar, and Tim's top picks in the precious metals and currency markets.

In this episode of our Investment Insights Podcast, Tom Claridge is joined by Felicity Selcoe from Julius Baer's UK Advisory Desk where they discuss the fiscal spending plans of the new Biden administration, the brightening mood in the oil market, the growth potential of the UK economy and what sectors are set to benefit most from an economic recovery in the second half of 2021.

In the first episode of 2021, we welcome back Tom Claridge and Mark Winterburn who discuss the retail investor short squeeze of hedge funds, the Fed's new rates framework and why asset allocation is so important in times of volatility.

In our final episode of 2020, Mark Winterburn, Head of Advisory Solutions UK, is joined by Ed Raymond, Head of Portfolio Management UK, to take a look back on 2020's markets and review what areas performed best. Looking ahead to 2021, Mark and Ed also discuss their views on what sectors they see as good investment opportunities for the coming year while also referencing the ongoing Brexit saga.

In this episode, Mark Winterburn, Julius Baer's UK Head of Advisory, is joined by Investment Advisor, Greg MacDougal, to discuss the latest news in markets. At the core of their discussion is the market reaction to US election clarity and the successful initial trials for a Covid-19 vaccine, as well as the impact that has on growth and value stocks. Finally, following the recent paper on antitrust regulations from China, they share their views on Chinese equities and the impact that a regulatory clampdown could have on their tech giants.

In our latest episode, Mark Winterburn, Head of UK Advisory, and Dawn Li Wan Po, Senior UK Portfolio Manager, discuss the latest following the US election, the effect of the second national lockdown in the UK and news from the current US earnings season.

In this episode, Mark Winterburn, Head of UK Advisory, and Marco Stroili, Senior Investment Advisor, discuss their views on investment areas worth considering for the final quarter of the year and beyond. They also discuss a number of hot topics in the US right now, namely the US election, US earnings season and the recent report from the US House of Representatives on excessive market dominance by large tech companies.

In this episode, Senior Portfolio Managers Tom Claridge and Dawn Li Wan Po preview the upcoming quarterly earnings season as well as discussing the bond and private market reactions to recent volatility and finally the "chaotic" first Presidential debate.

In this episode, Tom Claridge speaks with Mark Winterburn about the mini correction seen in markets, our house view on emerging market fixed income and the recent developments surrounding Brexit.

Tom Claridge, Senior Portfolio Manager, speaks to Mark Winterburn, Head of UK Advisory Services, about the impact of the US Election on equity markets and the future of the stimulus bill. They also discuss the recent Jackson Hole symposium, interest rates, unemployment and how small caps and commodities have performed in the current market.

In this episode, Tom Claridge is joined by Tim Gagie from Julius Baer's FX Advisory Team in Geneva where they discuss the recent US Dollar weakness, the gold market and the relationship between Sterling and Euro.

In the episode of the Julius Baer Investment Insights Podcast, Tom Claridge is joined by Daniel Obradovic who is one of three lead managers of Julius Baer's flagship equity mandate, Global Excellence. Tom and Daniel discuss how the team have managed the Global Excellence strategy throughout the Corona Crisis, the upcoming earnings season and how the US elections will impact markets. This is not an offer of investments: This publication is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer, a recommendation or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Julius Baer to make any investments.

In this episode, Tom Claridge and Mark Winterburn discuss the possible routes for economic recovery, the high yield fixed income market, and a key topic that the accelerated use of e-commerce and remote working has thrown into the spotlight - cybersecurity.

In this episode, Tom Claridge and Mark Winterburn discuss the renewed volatility in equity markets, the risks of a second wave of COVID-19 and what opportunities they see as we enter the second half of the year

In this episode, Tom Claridge speaks with Julius Baer International's Head of Portfolio Management, Ed Raymond, about his thoughts on the first half of 2020 and how the UK portfolio management team has navigated the Coronavirus crisis.

In this episode, Tom Claridge speaks with Adam Locke, Julius Baer International's UK Focus portfolio manager, about the trends they're seeing in the UK equity and corporate debt markets.

In this episode, Tom Claridge and Mark Winterburn discuss how government policy priorities are shifting during this crisis and the recent downgrade of Eurozone equities by the Julius Baer research team.

This episode features a conversation between Tom Claridge and Mark Winterburn on the different roads to recovery for the global economy and the increased noise around the oil and gold markets recently.

In this edition of the Julius Baer Investment Insights podcast, Tom Claridge speaks with senior portfolio manager, Dawn Li Wan Po, about the corporate earnings season, corporate credit, inflation and the issues seen in the oil market.

In this episode, Tom Claridge is joined by Alex Crowe, senior portfolio manager of Julius Baer's Sustainability Mandate, to discuss the rise in demand for sustainable investments and how they've held up during the Coronavirus crisis.

In our latest episode, Tom Claridge is joined again by Mark Winterburn where they discuss the mini recovery seen in markets and the signs of stabilisation of bonds following the unprecedented fiscal support shown by governments and central banks.

In this episode, Tom Claridge speaks with Mark Winterburn about how markets have reacted to the announcements of government stimulus plans as well as the new lows seen in oil markets.

In this episode, Tom Claridge and Mark Winterburn discuss how Coronavirus has impacted markets and what central banks and governments can do to combat the economic slowdown.