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Pauline is joined in the studio by top-ranked retail analyst, Oliver Chen of TD Cowen. Together, they discuss retail trends of the past year and predictions for '25, including: which companies and segments are poised to win in the current marketplace; why growth of bricks-and-mortar stores continues to outpace e-commerce; how AI and other technologies are reshaping the retail industry; how fashion brands command cultural relevance and elicit desirability through innovative designs, merchandising and marketing; and what challenges and opportunities retailers will face in year ahead.
Ken Pilot interviews Oliver Chen for this flight of The Retail Pilot podcast. Oliver Chen is a Managing Director and senior equity research analyst covering retail and luxury goods at TD Cowen. His deep understanding of the consumer and his ability to forecast the latest trends and technological changes that will impact the retail space have set him apart from peers.Prior to joining TD Cowen in 2014, he spent seven years at Citigroup, worked in the investment research division at UBS, in the global mergers and acquisitions/strategic planning group at PepsiCo International, and in JPMorgan's consumer products/retail mergers and acquisitions group.Oliver holds a bachelor of science degree from Georgetown University, an MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, and is a CFA charterholder.His passion for the sector began at the age of 12 when he began working with his parents at their retail business in Natchitoches, Louisiana.Summary:In this conversation, Oliver Chen discusses the current state of luxury retail and the beauty sector, highlighting the challenges and opportunities faced by brands. He emphasizes the importance of pricing strategies, the impact of digital transformation, and the need for brands to connect with younger consumers. The discussion also covers emerging trends in fragrance, the potential of the men's beauty market, and the role of AI in enhancing the retail experience.Key Takeaways:Luxury retail is facing an inflection point with declining sales.China's economic factors are influencing luxury spending.LVMH's strong brand portfolio positions it well in the market.Hermes thrives due to its timeless luxury appeal.Luxury brands are increasingly focusing on direct-to-consumer sales.Ralph Lauren's success is attributed to its cultural relevance and value perception.Fragrance is a growing category with opportunities for premiumization.The men's beauty market is still developing but shows potential.TikTok is becoming a significant platform for beauty brands.AI is set to transform the retail experience through personalized search.
Pauline is joined by top-ranked equity research analyst Oliver Chen of TD Cowen for an in-depth discussion on trends in the retail and luxury sectors. During this segment, Pauline and Oliver compare the positions and performances of leading beauty and fashion companies, and they discuss what differentiates the winners from the losers in this highly competitive and fast-changing marketplace.
Recorded on 10/20/23 TD Cowen's New Platforms, Retail, & Luxury Analyst, Oliver Chen, hosts Winnie Park, CEO of Forever 21. In this episode, Oliver and Winnie discuss redefining the Forever 21 brand and balancing fashion trend, speed, quality, and value to connect with customers. Other topics covered include Forever 21's partnership with SHEIN, driving cultural relevance, and planning the assortment for both breadth and depth. For Disclosures, click here bit.ly/3cPHkNW
Recorded on 07/18/23 In this episode, Cowen's New Platforms, Retail & Luxury Analyst, Oliver Chen, speaks with Rachel Glass, founder of GLOSSLAB. GLOSSLAB is a membership-based manicures and pedicures platform that provides waterless services, hospital-grade sterilization, single-use tools, and air filtration. We explore the future of beauty and selfcare and how GLOSSLAB stands for empowering people and inspiring confidence one manicure at a time. For Disclosures, click here bit.ly/3cPHkNW
Recorded on 06/06/23 Democratizing Fashion Through an Apparel Transformation. In this episode, TD Cowen's New Platforms, Retail & Luxury Analyst, Oliver Chen speaks with Denise Incandela, Executive Vice President of the Apparel Division and Private Brands for Walmart U.S. We explore key innovations and transformations within WMT's apparel division, which focus on driving closet share gains across national, private, and elevated brands through re-envisioned experiences both in-store and online tailored for outfitting inspiration. Store remodels in the apparel section will include updated fixtures, including video displays and mannequins, premier brand shops, widened aisles and reduced clutter, and larger category shops such as denim. For Disclosures, click here bit.ly/3cPHkNW
Greg Peters, PGIM Fixed Income Co-CIO, says the yield curve is already pricing in a recession. Oliver Chen, Cowen Senior Equity Research Analyst, discusses the slump in European luxury retailers. James Lucier, Capital Alpha Partners Senior Political Analyst, discusses debt-limit talks and DeSantis' potential announcement of his 2023 presidential bid on Twitter with Musk. Liz Young, SoFi Head of Investment Strategy, says the market is showing "pretty classic late cycle behavior." Doug Kass, Seabreeze Partners President, explains why he thinks the debt ceiling is a sideshow distracting investors from the seriously negative ramifications of a top heavy market.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Walmart reports earnings this morning after Home Depot and Target said consumers are pulling back on discretionary spending. TD Cowen's Oliver Chen discusses his expectations. Plus, famed hedge fund manager Michael Burry may be betting big on China, but the rest of Wall Street is growing more skeptical about the world's second largest economy. KraneShares' Brendan Ahern breaks down the trade. And, mining companies are sitting on a lot of cash after last year's strength in commodity prices, which is fueling a boom in lithium M&A activity. Stifel's Cole McGill weighs in on the sector.
Recorded on 02/27/23 Experiential and Expressive Haircare Retail. In this episode, Cowen's New Platforms, Retail & Luxury Analyst, Oliver Chen speaks with CEO of Sally Beauty, Denise Paulonis. Sally Beauty is a global hair care retail leader with #1 market share in color and professional hair care distribution. We explore how SBH is driving customer centricity and engagement across their brands, and opportunities with key initiatives, such as Salon HQ, Virtual Color Experts, and Studio by Sally. For Disclosures, click here bit.ly/3cPHkNW
Recorded on 08/02/22 In this episode, Cowen's Retail and Luxury Analyst, Oliver Chen, hosts Natasha Franck, Founder & CEO of EON. Together they explore the inevitable merger of the digital and physical worlds in the future of retail. EON is on a mission to change the way consumers buy, sell, own, and connect with products by bringing physical goods to the cloud with digital ID's. For Disclosures, click here bit.ly/3cPHkNW
Vincent Reinhart, Dreyfus and Mellon Chief Economist, says a low savings rate shows that households aren't too worried about a recession. Oliver Chen, Cowen Senior Equity Research Analyst, expects Target and other retails to have a better second half of the year. Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist, a lot of what the market has been facing is priced in to stocks. Mark Cabana, Bank of America Head of US Rates Strategy, says we're in the later innings of the economic cycle. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Welcome to the The Voice of Retail , I'm your host Michael LeBlanc, and this podcast is brought to you in conjunction with Retail Council of Canada.On this special episode I am thrilled to be sharing an excerpt from one of the most popular Remarkable Retail podcast of our third season, where my podcast partner & best selling author Steve Denis and I host a blockbuster panel featuring three of the most experienced and insightful veterans of the luxury world: Karen Katz (former President & CEO of the Neiman Marcus Group, Steve Sadove (former Chairman and CEO of Saks) and Oliver Chen (Managing director and senior equity research analyst at Cowen and Company). We cover a lot of territory, first trying to align on a working definition of what "luxury" really means today and how luxury was evolving pre-COVID. Then we shift into what's next, including our dream team's quick takes on luxury re-commerce, the role of the in-store experience, the importance of multi-brand retail (online and off), sustainability, exclusivity, storytelling and more. We wrap up getting everyone's view on why it's so hard for legacy brands to innovate and whether .com spin-outs make any sense at all. Thanks for tuning into today's episode of The Voice of Retail. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast so you don't miss out on the latest episodes, industry news, and insights. If you enjoyed this episode please consider leaving a rating and review, as it really helps us grow so that we can continue getting amazing guests on the show. I'm your host Michael LeBlanc, President of M.E. LeBlanc & Company, and if you're looking for more content, or want to chat follow me on LinkedIn, or visit my website meleblanc.co! Until next time, stay safe and have a great week! Michael LeBlanc is the Founder & President of M.E. LeBlanc & Company Inc and a Senior Advisor to Retail Council of Canada as part of his advisory and consulting practice. He brings 25+ years of brand/retail/marketing & eCommerce leadership experience, and has been on the front lines of retail industry change for his entire career. Michael is the producer and host of a network of leading podcasts including Canada's top retail industry podcast, The Voice of Retail, plus Global E-Commerce Tech Talks and The Food Professor with Dr. Sylvain Charlebois. You can learn more about Michael here or on LinkedIn.
This week we've got a blockbuster panel featuring three of the most experienced and insightful veterans of the luxury world: Karen Katz (former President & CEO of the Neiman Marcus Group, Steve Sadove (former Chairman and CEO of Saks) and Oliver Chen (Managing director and senior equity research analyst at Cowen and Company). We cover a lot of territory, first trying to align on a working definition of what "luxury" really means today and how luxury was evolving pre-COVID. Then we shift into what's next, including our dream team's quick takes on luxury re-commerce, the role of the in-store experience, the importance of multi-brand retail (online and off), sustainability, exclusivity, storytelling and more. We wrap up getting everyone's view on why it's so hard for legacy brands to innovate and whether .com spin-outs make any sense at all.But first we open up with the top retail stories that caught our attention this past week, with a big focus on what we can take away from Black Friday and Cyber Monday performance as the threat of Omicron looms, more profitless prosperity from Allbirds as they report their first quarterly earnings as a public company, and Amazon's rise to parcel delivery supremacy. About Karen KatzKatz, who is a graduate of the University of Texas, is the former chief executive, president and director of the Neiman Marcus Group. She stepped down from the role in January 2019. Since 2014 she has also been on the board of directors at Under Armour.Katz has worked in a number of key executive and leadership roles at Neiman Marcus since joining the group as a merchandise manager in 1985. Most recently she has leveraged Neiman Marcus' brick and mortar assets to launch an omni-channel strategy that includes merging planning and buying teams for all departments and integrating customers' online and in-store experiences with in-store apps and personalised web dashboards.Under Katz, Neiman Marcus acquired luxury e-commerce site MyTheresa.com, the Munich-based luxury e-tailer. She also expanded MyTheresa's e-commerce offerings to bolster the Neiman Marcus omni-channel strategy and oversaw the opening of the retailer's first New York City flagship in 2018, a seven-story retail project situated in the Hudson Yards in Manhattan's far West Side. About Steve SadoveBetween 2002 and 2013, Mr. Sadove held positions of increasing responsibility with Saks Incorporated, serving as its Chairman and Chief Executive Officer from 2007 to 2013.Prior to joining Saks, Mr. Sadove built a distinguished marketing and consumer products career spanning more than 25 years and held senior positions at companies including General Foods (now Kraft) and Bristol-Myers Squibb Company as President of Clairol. He led Clairol to become the number one hair care business in the United States, relaunched the Herbal Essences brand into a $700 million business and completed the sale of the beauty care business to Procter & Gamble. Mr. Sadove is also a founding partner of JW Levin Management Partners, a private equity firm.Mr. Sadove is a former Chair of the National Retail Federation and serves as an advisor to Mastercard. He serves on numerous community and civic boards including Hamilton College as Chairman of the Board of Trustees and AmeriCares. About Oliver ChenOliver Chen has joined Cowen and Company's Equity Research department as a Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst. He covers over 30 stocks in the Retail & Luxury Sectors.Oliver is a graduate of Georgetown University, The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and is a CFA Charterholder. He also serves on the PhD Retail Research Review committee at the Wharton School's Jay H. Baker Retailing Center. Mr. Chen was recognized in the Wharton School's “40 Under 40” brightest stars alumni list in 2017.Most recently, Mr. Chen was recognized on the 2018 and 2017 Institutional Investor All-America Research team as a top analyst in the retailing/department stores & specialty softlines sector. Mr. Chen was also selected as a preeminent retail influencer as he was named to the National Retail Federation (NRF) Foundation's “2019 List of People Shaping Retail's Future.” Considered an “industry expert,” Mr. Chen frequently appears as a speaker/panelist at key industry events.Steve Dennis is an advisor, keynote speaker and author on strategic growth and business innovation. You can learn more about Steve on his website. The expanded and revised edition of his bestselling book Remarkable Retail: How To Win & Keep Customers in the Age of Disruption is now available at Amazon or just about anywhere else books are sold. Steve regularly shares his insights in his role as a Forbes senior contributor and on Twitter and LinkedIn. You can also check out his speaker "sizzle" reel here.Michael LeBlanc is the Founder & President of M.E. LeBlanc & Company Inc and a Senior Advisor to Retail Council of Canada as part of his advisory and consulting practice. He brings 25+ years of brand/retail/marketing & eCommerce leadership experience, and has been on the front lines of retail industry change for his entire career. Michael is the producer and host of a network of leading podcasts including Canada's top retail industry podcast, The Voice of Retail, plus Global E-Commerce Tech Talks , The Food Professor with Dr. Sylvain Charlebois and now in its second season, Conversations with CommerceNext! You can learn more about Michael here or on LinkedIn. Be sure and check out Michael's latest venture for fun and influencer riches - Last Request Barbecue, his YouTube BBQ cooking channel!
Oliver Chen, managing director of retail and luxury at Cowen, discusses the challenges and opportunities coming out of the pandemic and how luxury retailers are catering to consumers' changing values and shopping patterns. The pandemic has accelerated the future of retail, and that future includes a radically transformed store experience. The world expects instant speed, but they also want convenience and safety. The role of the store has shifted mainly into that of a distribution point, and organizations have had to learn to embrace and execute on this new reality overnight. Learn more at retailgetsreal.com.
Carmen Reinhart, Harvard Kennedy School Professor of the International Finance System, says the coronavirus, Saudi-Russia oil war, and risk of debt defaults have created a perfect storm for emerging markets. Mohamed Younis, Gallup Editor in Chief, reports that 52% of working Americans say their financial situation has already been affected by the coronavirus. Oliver Chen, Cowen Senior Equity Research Analyst, says the speed and viability of consumer spending post-crisis will be challenging. Shahab Jalinoos Credit Suisse Head of FX and Macro Trading Strategy, expects dollar strength to be relatively short-term. Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives Founder & President, says the effectiveness of U.S. fiscal stimulus measures will determine if businesses can stay open and restart operations. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
Carmen Reinhart, Harvard Kennedy School Professor of the International Finance System, says the coronavirus, Saudi-Russia oil war, and risk of debt defaults have created a perfect storm for emerging markets. Mohamed Younis, Gallup Editor in Chief, reports that 52% of working Americans say their financial situation has already been affected by the coronavirus. Oliver Chen, Cowen Senior Equity Research Analyst, says the speed and viability of consumer spending post-crisis will be challenging. Shahab Jalinoos Credit Suisse Head of FX and Macro Trading Strategy, expects dollar strength to be relatively short-term. Julia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives Founder & President, says the effectiveness of U.S. fiscal stimulus measures will determine if businesses can stay open and restart operations.
Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Founder & Chief Economist, doesn't see an end to the industrial recession as long as inventories are rising. Oliver Chen, Cowen Senior Equity Research Analyst, details research which suggests a niche area of apparel is growing double digits, despite weakness in the broad sector. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, says consumers are showing signs of weakness just as businesses are finally showing signs of life. Bill Smead, Smead Capital Chief Investment Officer & Founder, expects millennials to double their use of gasoline in the next 10 years. Sonali Basak, Bloomberg Finance Reporter, previews what's in store in the next decade for Goldman Sachs. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics Founder & Chief Economist, doesn't see an end to the industrial recession as long as inventories are rising. Oliver Chen, Cowen Senior Equity Research Analyst, details research which suggests a niche area of apparel is growing double digits, despite weakness in the broad sector. Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton Chief Economist, says consumers are showing signs of weakness just as businesses are finally showing signs of life. Bill Smead, Smead Capital Chief Investment Officer & Founder, expects millennials to double their use of gasoline in the next 10 years. Sonali Basak, Bloomberg Finance Reporter, previews what's in store in the next decade for Goldman Sachs.
Cowen and Company’s Oliver Chen, known as one of the most stylish equity analysts on Wall Street, and Steve Sadove, former Saks CEO and current Mastercard advisor, sat down with host Matt Rubel at Shoptalk to give their insider perspectives on the store as community point, distribution site and entertainment venue. Stores are no longer just stores—shoppers want fun, unique experiences along with convenience, seamless shopping and fresh, curated assortments. That means brick-and-mortar locations have to serve multiple new functions. This is the first episode of our four-part Shoptalk series of “Retales From the Frontline” presented by Mastercard. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
The retail store is transforming, and innovation means opportunity and change. Oliver Chen covers retail for Cowen and Company and sees a lot of this transformation firsthand. In this episode, Chen discusses how modern retailers are updating their success metrics for a new age and what the future of retail holds for companies and their customers. Learn more at retailgetsreal.com.
Nicky Morgan, U.K. Member of Parliament & Chair of Treasury Select Committee, and Rupert Harrison, BlackRock Multi-Asset Strategies Portfolio Manager, talk the challenges of getting the Brexit deal through Parliament. James Sweeney, Credit Suisse Chief Economist & Head of Global Fixed Income & Economic Research, says returns aren't great but the unemployment rate is going nowhere. Oliver Chen, Cowen Senior Equity Research Analyst, discusses Cyber Monday for a generation that needs "instagramable moments." Abhishek Deshpande, Head of JP Morgan's Global Oil Market Research & Strategy Team, thinks oil's falling prices are partly policy led. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
Nicky Morgan, U.K. Member of Parliament & Chair of Treasury Select Committee, and Rupert Harrison, BlackRock Multi-Asset Strategies Portfolio Manager, talk the challenges of getting the Brexit deal through Parliament. James Sweeney, Credit Suisse Chief Economist & Head of Global Fixed Income & Economic Research, says returns aren't great but the unemployment rate is going nowhere. Oliver Chen, Cowen Senior Equity Research Analyst, discusses Cyber Monday for a generation that needs "instagramable moments." Abhishek Deshpande, Head of JP Morgan's Global Oil Market Research & Strategy Team, thinks oil's falling prices are partly policy led.
Charles Kantor, Neuberger Berman Group Managing Director/Portfolio Manager, says we've lived in an environment of unusually low volatility because of the tremendous amount of global liquidity. Stan Collender, MSLGROUP National Director of Financial Communications, says the Republicans have already started politicizing the deficit. Matt Winkler, Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief Emeritus, tells the story of the day he hired Tom Keene. Oliver Chen, Cowen and Company Senior Analyst, says micro-trends are happening all over the retail sector. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
Charles Kantor, Neuberger Berman Group Managing Director/Portfolio Manager, says we've lived in an environment of unusually low volatility because of the tremendous amount of global liquidity. Stan Collender, MSLGROUP National Director of Financial Communications, says the Republicans have already started politicizing the deficit. Matt Winkler, Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief Emeritus, tells the story of the day he hired Tom Keene. Oliver Chen, Cowen and Company Senior Analyst, says micro-trends are happening all over the retail sector.
Carl Weinberg, the chief economist at High Frequency Economics, says OPEC's influence on oil prices is "increasingly decreasing." Michael Cannon, Cato Institute's director of health policy studies, says the House didn't show an appetite in repealing Obamacare. James Stavridis, the dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University, says we should expect more cyber attacks. Oliver Chen, a retail analyst at Cowen, says Macy's is in the epicenter of the retail disruption. Finally, Kevin Brady, the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee and a Republican representative from Texas, says a tax bill could be on Trump's desk by the end of the year. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
Carl Weinberg, the chief economist at High Frequency Economics, says OPEC's influence on oil prices is "increasingly decreasing." Michael Cannon, Cato Institute's director of health policy studies, says the House didn't show an appetite in repealing Obamacare. James Stavridis, the dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University, says we should expect more cyber attacks. Oliver Chen, a retail analyst at Cowen, says Macy's is in the epicenter of the retail disruption. Finally, Kevin Brady, the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee and a Republican representative from Texas, says a tax bill could be on Trump's desk by the end of the year.
Michael Darda, MKM's chief economist, says he expects three Fed rate hikes this year and three to four percent sustainable real U.S. growth. Prior to that, Micah Zenko, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, discusses U.S. relations with China and Russia. Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter, says he prefers buying gold in Euro and Yen instead of U.S. dollars. Finally, Oliver Chen, a research analyst at Cowen & Co., says there is great long-term opportunity in Costco and Wal-Mart. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
Michael Darda, MKM's chief economist, says he expects three Fed rate hikes this year and three to four percent sustainable real U.S. growth. Prior to that, Micah Zenko, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, discusses U.S. relations with China and Russia. Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter, says he prefers buying gold in Euro and Yen instead of U.S. dollars. Finally, Oliver Chen, a research analyst at Cowen & Co., says there is great long-term opportunity in Costco and Wal-Mart.
Cowen and Company's Oliver Chen on Amazon and its impact on greater retail and where the consumer fits when it comes to income. He speaks with Tom Keene and Michael McKee on Bloomberg Surveillance. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com