Podcasts about wti crude oil

This episode delves into the latest trends and trading activities in the futures options market. The show highlights significant movers, both to the upside and downside, in various markets including energy, agriculture, metals, and foreign exchange. Key points discussed include a comprehensive 'Movers and Shakers' report, a focus on WTI Crude Oil trading dynamics, and a detailed breakdown of volatility in different asset classes. The episode also touches on the unique trading activities in Bitcoin and jokes about hypothetical Shiba Inu futures.   01:21 This Week in Futures Options 03:56 Movers and Shakers Report 13:52 Energy Market Analysis 20:54 FX Market Insights 24:05 Conclusion and Upcoming Episodes  

This episode delves into the latest trends and trading activities in the futures options market. The show highlights significant movers, both to the upside and downside, in various markets including energy, agriculture, metals, and foreign exchange. Key points discussed include a comprehensive 'Movers and Shakers' report, a focus on WTI Crude Oil trading dynamics, and a detailed breakdown of volatility in different asset classes. The episode also touches on the unique trading activities in Bitcoin and jokes about hypothetical Shiba Inu futures.   01:21 This Week in Futures Options 03:56 Movers and Shakers Report 13:52 Energy Market Analysis 20:54 FX Market Insights 24:05 Conclusion and Upcoming Episodes  

Listen to the latest episode of the Market Bites podcast as eToro Market Analyst Sam North & Global Market Strategist, Ben Laidler discuss the latest market news, focusing on;What to expect from Oil prices this yearWhat is the bull and bear case?What do constellation brands do?Why could their results this week be important for the market?Is the VIX still a cheap hedge?Is the recent move lower in the S&P 500 a good thing?See you all next time!Learn more about trading by visiting the eToro Academy home page where you can read reports, watch videos and sign up to our free trading course.Your capital is at risk. Other fees apply. For more information, visit etoro.com/trading/fees. Past performance is not an indication of future results.This communication is for information and education purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation to buy or sell, any financial instruments. This material has been prepared without taking into account any particular recipient's investment objectives or financial situation, and has not been prepared in accordance with the legal and regulatory requirements to promote independent research. Any references to past or future performance of a financial instrument, index or a packaged investment product are not, and should not be taken as, a reliable indicator of future results. eToro makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the content of this publication.

Listen to the latest episode of the Market Bites podcast as eToro Market Analyst Sam North & Global Market Strategist, Ben Laidler discuss the latest market news, focusing on;What to expect from Oil prices this yearWhat is the bull and bear case?What do constellation brands do?Why could their results this week be important for the market?Is the VIX still a cheap hedge?Is the recent move lower in the S&P 500 a good thing?See you all next time!Learn more about trading by visiting the eToro Academy home page where you can read reports, watch videos and sign up to our free trading course.Your capital is at risk. Other fees apply. For more information, visit etoro.com/trading/fees. Past performance is not an indication of future results.This communication is for information and education purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation to buy or sell, any financial instruments. This material has been prepared without taking into account any particular recipient's investment objectives or financial situation, and has not been prepared in accordance with the legal and regulatory requirements to promote independent research. Any references to past or future performance of a financial instrument, index or a packaged investment product are not, and should not be taken as, a reliable indicator of future results. eToro makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the content of this publication.

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.It was a fairly quiet week in the U.S. economy as the Thanksgiving holiday limited data releases last week. Existing trends continued from the prior week as the 10-year treasury continued to drift lower. The yield on the 10-year is now 4.42%, nearly 60 basis points below its recent peak in mid-October. Oil prices continue to fall, with WTI Crude Oil trading around $75 per barrel, down from $93 in recent months. The slowdown in oil prices will help keep inflation at bay and potentially allow the Fed to end its monetary tightening. GDP will be released this week and November job gains will be reported next week. Key inflation indicators will also be announced prior to the Fed's next interest rate announcement.Multifamily fundamentals have not deviated from their slow decline. Leading indicators were mostly flat last week, while lagging indicators continued to fall. The recent speculation that interest rate increases may be finished has spurred some excitement in the transaction market, as buyers and sellers are beginning to come together on deal terms. Transaction activity has not increased meaningfully yet, but the combination of maturing loans, expiring rate caps and stability in the interest rate market will likely bring an uptick in transaction activity. Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/3XBKJGH.

Vice President Kamala Harris claimed on Sunday that gun violence is the leading cause of death for children. USA Today Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page said Monday on MSNBC the White House is having a “hard” time convincing Americans the economy is working for them. The oil market has been volatile. At the beginning of April 2023, WTI Crude Oil surged by $5 in one day to over $80 per barrel as OPEC + announced production cuts. After that, oil fell back, and by early May had dropped below $70 per barrel. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) quietly allowed a pharmaceutical firm to profit off a life-saving diabetes treatment, shortly after a group of Republican senators proposed legislation to expand access to the treatment by changing how it is regulated. Plus more on this episode.

Jonathan and Rory take over as Mike has departed from Two Blokes Trading to become a portfolio analyst at one of the UK's leading pension funds. We wish Mike all the best in his new role and thank you for your valuable contribution to the podcasts.Last week seen US labour markets remain tight with unemployment declining to 3.6% from 3.7%, clearing the path for the Federal Reserve to hike a further 25bps in their meeting at the end of the month.Jonathan asks Rory what his view is on the current economic cycle, including if he thinks the fed have further to go in terms of interest rate hikes and what a stronger labour market means for the Dollar and US risk assets including equities.Currently US indices are in a strong bull market backed by a divergence of data from recent PMI's that are suggesting the economy may be contracting, Jonathan asks Rory his opinion and where he sees many assets heading such as GBP/USD , EUR/USD, WTI Crude Oil and Gold.Jonathan also asks Rory for his opinion on Apple to which Rory thinks they are a great company but may be overvalued due to their “household name “ nature. What he means by this is how he expressed in the podcast that If any retail trader had £100 to invest in a company, chances are they will choose Apple as they know the name.Rory also says that Apple's success is down to their ability to make people repurchase a similar product such as the iPhone where people continually roll from phone contracts or simple just purchase a new phone to have the latest device.Check Out The Two Blokes Trading APP

Good afternoon, Brian Szytel here with you today on this down day in markets following yesterday's unconvincing (to me, at least) Fed-led rally. Today there is more chatter from several other Fed Presidents I'll discuss, along with some comments on inflation, recession indications, and some takeaway comments from last night's State of the Union address. Plenty to go through, including my Super Bowl prediction at the end, so I'll let you hop into the podcast link below from here and reach out with any questions, as always. US futures opened last night down slightly, losing a little ground through the night, pointing to a down 100-point open at home, while Europe, in contrast, continued to hold gains. Markets opened in the red by about 110 points but were back toward fair value within the first hour of the morning session. Dow: -207 points (-.61%) S&P: -1.11% Nasdaq: -1.68% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.63%%, down 4.7 basis points on the day. The 2/10 yield curve is inverted by over 80 bps. The 3mo/10YR curve is inverted by 108 bps. Top-performing sector: Real Estate was the best-performing sector today at -.29%, although all sectors were in the red. Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services are down -4.13%, largely due to Google being down over 7% on the day. WTI Crude Oil: $78.41/barrel, up +1.63% Links mentioned in this episode: [TheDCToday.com] https://bahnsen.co/3xdfw1m DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Lots of chatter from Fed Governors these days with Kashkari saying we need higher rates for longer, Bostic in Atlanta saying January's jobs report speaks to another rate hike (which was already priced in), but now today Jerome Powell basically reaffirming his message of last week, which is one of an imminent pause. Right now, we see a 91% chance of a quarter-point hike at the next meeting and a 70% chance of one more quarter-point hike after that. Dow: +266 points (+0.78%) S&P: +1.29% Nasdaq: +1.90% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.68% (+5 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+3.08%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (-0.36%) WTI Crude Oil: $77.37/barrel (+4.40%) Key Economic Points of the Day: Bond yields have jumped 37 basis points since the 1st of the month on the short end of the curve The trade deficit came in at $67.4 billion for December, a tad less than expected. Exports were up +7.6% last year (energy had to help) and imports were up +2% on the year. Those divergent rates led to a decline in the trade deficit, but unfortunately, a decline of -2.5% in total trade for Q4 and -1.1% for Q3 brought total trade for 2022 down to just +4.4% versus a year ago. Links mentioned in this episode: [TheDCToday.com] https://bahnsen.co/3DPsyG2 DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Dow: +204.45 (+0.61%) S&P: +1.10% Nasdaq: +1.76% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.497% (+3 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+3.32%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (-0.28%) WTI Crude Oil: $81.04/barrel (+0.89%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Weekly jobless claims again reflected the strength of the labor markets with initial claims coming in at 186,000 versus a median forecast of 205,000 A reminder, all of this coming on the heels of daily reports of layoffs from some of the top employers in the country The 2022 4th quarter GDP number came in at 2.9%, slightly above the median forecast of 2.8%, and buoyed by continued solid consumer spending Durable goods orders came in at 5.6% compared to a 2.4% forecast, but a quick look behind the curtain shows that much of this was lifted by a 116% spike in aircraft orders ex-transportation new orders actually declined U.S. new home sales edged out the forecasted number, reporting 616,000 on a median forecast of 615,000, and marking a three-month trend of rising new home sales Note, the year-over-year figure here is still down nearly 27%, completely driven by higher borrowing. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Dow: +10 points (+0.03%) S&P: -0.02% Nasdaq: -0.18% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.45% (-1.8 basis points) Top-performing sector: Financials (+0.74%) Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (-1.36%) WTI Crude Oil: $80.49/barrel (+0.45%) ASK DAVID “This statement in Brian's response to yesterday's question caught my eye: “…because inflation is ultimately driven by demand.” I find this interesting because I believe I have heard you say, quite emphatically, that inflation is first and foremost a supply side phenomenon. So is this simply a theoretical disagreement among peers or am I misinterpreting something? ” ~ Mike Inflation, by definition, is one or the other or both. “Too much money chasing too few goods (or services)” – it is an algebraic expression that can have one or both inputs contributing (MV=PT) I believe this recent moment's inflation (2021-22) was clearly supply-side-driven. The context of Brian's full paragraph with that one line in it makes clear his view's alignment with mine. Links mentioned in this episode: [TheDCToday.com] https://bahnsen.co/3Haj3Cb DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Futures opened last night about even give or take 20 points, and stayed that way until early morning when we began moving lower and then notably so pointing to a down -150 point open. We opened down about -170 points but were down north of -250 after the first 20 minutes of trading. Around 1145 EST we had slightly better than expected PMI data released and fully recovered the morning losses trading sideways with a small upwards bias the remainder of the trading day. We closed positive on the Dow but slightly negative on both the SP500 and Nasdaq. Dow: +104.41 (+.31%) S&P: -.07% Nasdaq: -.27% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.46%, down -5.6bps on the day Top-performing sector: Industrials up +.65% Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services -.69% WTI Crude Oil: $80.16/barrel, down -1.79% Key Economic Point of the Day: A flash read today on US Composite PMI data showed a slight improvement over December, although still handily in contraction territory and the slowest since last October at 46.6 from 45 the month prior. Manufacturing PMI was little changed at 46.8 up from 46.2 with Services PMI at 46.6 from 44.7. Could the data in the chart below pick back up above 50 into positive territory before we end up registering an official recession this year, of course, but that economic margin is about as thin as it gets right now. For what its worth, this PMI data point is what led to markets recovering after the mornings initial sell off and was a ‘less bad' read following December – not so bad that we fear recession is immanent, but cool enough to back the ‘Fed will pause soon' narrative. Interestingly enough, the flash PMI read today from the Eurozone actually showed it barely bump back into expansion territory from 49.3 last month to 50.2, although not sure I would call that robust. Links mentioned in this episode: [TheDCToday.com] https://bahnsen.co/3RbWe5R DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I, Trevor Cummings, am honored to be filling in for David Bahnsen today. I hope you will join me for the video and/or podcast, as I provide you with the daily happenings around markets. Please don't miss out on the “Ask David” section below, as we've fielded this same or similar question quite a few times recently. Without further ado, off we go… Dow: -252.26(-0.76%) S&P: -0.76% Nasdaq: -0.96% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.395% (+2 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+1.11%) Bottom-performing sector: Industrials (-2.08%) WTI Crude Oil: $80.47/barrel (+1.25%) Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Dow: -614 points (-1.81%) S&P: -1.56% Nasdaq: -1.24% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.37% (-16 basis points) Top-performing sector: Communication Services (-0.93%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (-2.65%) WTI Crude Oil: $79.25/barrel (-1.16%) Key Economic Points of the Day: The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw outright (and rather significant) DEFLATION in December, with prices dropping on the month -0.5%, well more than the -0.1% expected. November's number was adjusted downwards by -0.2% as well. The 7.4% year-over-year number came down to 6.2%. The CORE number is down to 5.5%. Wholesale gas prices dropping -13.4% helped the cause, as did the food index's -1.2% decline. Energy/gas prices have helped downward pressure in recent months, and that could/likely will reverse in months ahead even as other inflationary data see more downward pressure. I expect the core vs. headline reads to potentially diverge significantly in the months ahead. Industrial Production fell -0.7% in December and was actually down -1% when you factor in downward revisions from past months. Manufacturing led the way down. This was the largest monthly decline in more than a year. On an annualized basis, Industrial Production is down -5.2% in the last three months. Microsoft joined the fray of huge tech companies performing massive layoffs as they announced plans to lay off 10,000 employees (5% of their workforce) Retail sales fell -1.1% in December, mostly in line with the level of disinflation of gasoline prices we saw last month. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Dow: +269 points (+0.81%) S&P: +1.28% Nasdaq: +1.76% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.54% (-7.6 basis points) Top-performing sector: Real Estate (+3.60%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (+0.06%) WTI Crude Oil: $77.71/barrel (+3.45%) ASK DAVID “The US government has stated that it will purchase crude oil to replenish the strategic reserve once the price hits $70. In effect, this seems to indicate that the government will purchase millions of barrels at $70. Does this function as a price floor? And, if so, what impact does a government-created price floor have on markets?” ~ Keith So just by way of clarification, they have indicated they want that to be the rough price level at which they will transact, but their rough and very ambiguous guidance on the subject would indicate the intent of more a floor than a ceiling and yet, if the price does not go (or stay) there, it may not be a price at which much transacts. The government cannot make the market cooperate. But to the extent the market expects that level to be a rough “floor,” I suppose one could assume in their economic calculation that some of the left tail risks of various price collapses are less likely. The problem is that they can change their mind, and any number of events could happen (upside or downside) that alter the economics here. What market actors ultimately know is that there is a forced buyer in the marketplace, and supply calculations, profit expectations, and a number of numerical considerations around production can be performed with that intervening fact lingering. It does suggest a certain backstop in matters which provide a bit of an asymmetrical risk/reward (in the producers' favor). Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Dow: +269 points (+0.81%) S&P: +1.28% Nasdaq: +1.76% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.54% (-7.6 basis points) Top-performing sector: Real Estate (+3.60%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (+0.06%) WTI Crude Oil: $77.71/barrel (+3.45%) ASK DAVID “The US government has stated that it will purchase crude oil to replenish the strategic reserve once the price hits $70. In effect, this seems to indicate that the government will purchase millions of barrels at $70. Does this function as a price floor? And, if so, what impact does a government-created price floor have on markets?” ~ Keith So just by way of clarification, they have indicated they want that to be the rough price level at which they will transact, but their rough and very ambiguous guidance on the subject would indicate the intent of more a floor than a ceiling and yet, if the price does not go (or stay) there, it may not be a price at which much transacts. The government cannot make the market cooperate. But to the extent the market expects that level to be a rough “floor,” I suppose one could assume in their economic calculation that some of the left tail risks of various price collapses are less likely. The problem is that they can change their mind, and any number of events could happen (upside or downside) that alter the economics here. What market actors ultimately know is that there is a forced buyer in the marketplace, and supply calculations, profit expectations, and a number of numerical considerations around production can be performed with that intervening fact lingering. It does suggest a certain backstop in matters which provide a bit of an asymmetrical risk/reward (in the producers' favor). Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A little early morning volatility but then a small rally on the day in markets. Read below, listen, watch – the choice is yours! MARKET ACTION Dow: +186 points (+0.56%) S&P: 0.70% Nasdaq: 1.01% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.62% (+10 basis points) Top-performing sector: Communication Svcs (+1.29%) and Consumer Discretionary (+1.26%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (-0.16%) WTI Crude Oil: $74.66/barrel (flat) Key Economic Points of the Day: Used Car Prices dropped -15% year-over-year in 2022 (from where they ended 2021), the largest single-year drop on record. This came, of course, off of large increases in 2021. The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index was up in December versus November but basically right at the all-time low set in October. 21% of people surveyed said they believed it to be a good time to buy. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped to 89.8 from 91.9 in December, the lowest since June of last year. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A solid day for the energy sector and some key blue chip companies but downside across most market sectors. Dow: -340 points (-1.02%) S&P: -1.16% Nasdaq: -1.47% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.72% (+1 basis point) Top-performing sector: Energy (+1.99%) Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (-2.89%) WTI Crude Oil: $73.80/barrel (+1.32%) Key Economic Point of the Day: The ADP jobs number for the private sector came in at 235k for December, well above the 150k projected. Naturally, futures went down on the news. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

So the Dow gave back Monday's gain today and a tad more, but with today's -764 point day in the Dow, the market finds itself a couple of hundred points off where it was just last Friday. And the bond market rally continued again today as yields fell again. All of this is carefully dissected in today's podcast and video … Dow: down -764 points (-2.25%) S&P: down -2.49% Nasdaq: down -3.23% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.45% (-5 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (-0.53%) Bottom-performing sector: Technology (-3.78%) and Communication Services (-3.84%) WTI Crude Oil: $76.20/barrel (-1.38%) Key Economic Points of the Day: Retail Sales fell -0.6% in November, and even ex-autos were down -0.2%. Much of this was related to the strong number of October, off of which this drop is based. Nominal GDP expectations for Q4 will come down if consumer activity is less than expected. Industrial Production fell -0.2% vs. expectations of a +0.1% increase. Initial jobless claims were down 20k to 211k. Continuing claims are at their highest level since February (at 1.67 million). Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Dow: Up +184 points (+0.55%) S&P: +0.75% Nasdaq: +1.13% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.48% (+7.9 basis points) Top-performing sector: Technology (+1.59%) Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-0.50%) WTI Crude Oil: $71.81/barrel (-0.28%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Initial jobless claims came in at 230k – right at expectations. Continuing claims have inched higher as well, all at once indicating some softening (high since February), but very little to write home about (not a big movement up). Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A DEAD FLAT day in the Dow – up/down +0.00% (you do not see that often), and a whole lot I discuss in the DC Today. MARKET ACTION Dow: Up 1 point (LOL) (+0.001%) S&P: -0.19% Nasdaq: -0.51% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.42% (-9.3 basis points) Top-performing sector: Health Care (+0.85%) Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-0.93%) WTI Crude Oil: $72.43/barrel (-2.48%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Used vehicle prices hit their lowest level in over a year as outright deflation continues to permeate that marketplace (-15.6% decline since January) Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Lots to cover here in the DC Today … Listen to the podcast or watch the video, and check out the info below! MARKET ACTION Dow: -351 points (-1.03%) S&P: -1.44% Nasdaq: -2.00% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.53% (-6.6 basis points) – ferocious bond rally of last month continues Top-performing sector: Utilities (+0.66%) Bottom-performing sector: Energy (-2.65%) WTI Crude Oil: $74.34/barrel (-3.35%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Business Roundtable CEO Outlook Survey was at its lowest number since Q3 2020, but is way, way above the breakeven level of expectation (that is, still anticipating substantial economic expansion, albeit with a grimmer relative outlook than last year) The trade deficit came in at $78.2 billion in October, less than the $80 billion expected. But total trade was up on the month and is up +13.7% versus a year ago. The container ship debacle has largely subsided and yet there are still some issues marginally constricting trade (China COVID policy, Russia sanctions, etc.) Key Economic Point of the Day: Business Roundtable CEO Outlook Survey was at its lowest number since Q3 2020, but is way, way above the breakeven level of expectation (that is, still anticipating substantial economic expansion, albeit with a grimmer relative outlook than last year) The trade deficit came in at $78.2 billion in October, less than the $80 billion expected. But total trade was up on the month and is up +13.7% versus a year ago. The container ship debacle has largely subsided and yet there are still some issues marginally constricting trade (China COVID policy, Russia sanctions, etc.) Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

December has launched and I have some things to tell you … MARKET ACTION Dow: Down -195 points (-0.56%) S&P: -0.09% Nasdaq: +0.13% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.50% (- 19 basis points); down 72bps from the 4.22% high of just five weeks ago! Top-performing sector: Communication Services (+0.29%) & Health Care (+0.24%) Bottom-performing sector: Financials (-0.71%) WTI Crude Oil: $81.28/barrel (+0.91%) Key Economic Point of the Day: The Fed's favorite inflation measurement (PCE) came in up just +0.2% on the month, less than the +0.3% expected, and known to be tainted by the misleading contribution of housing's lag effect (which I have written about extensively). The September gain had been +0.5%, so the stock and bond market responded favorably to the disinflationary trend. Initial jobless claims came in at 225,000, actually lower than expected Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

An interesting but not especially noteworthy day in markets today, and we have all the commentary you need right here MARKET ACTION Dow: +3 points (+0.01%) S&P: -0.16% Nasdaq: -0.59% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.75% (+5 basis points) Top-performing sector: Real Estate (+1.71%); Energy +1.28% Bottom-performing sector: Technology (-0.98%) WTI Crude Oil: $78.64/barrel (+1.81%) Key Economic Point of the Day: The Case Shiller Housing Index dropped for the third month in a row, now down -13% since August. ASK DAVID “How fair is it to compare the relationship between FTX and Alameda Research to the relationship between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve? Alameda was using client money to buy up FTX's token (FTT) in order to bolster the price of the FTT. How much different is that from the Fed using taxpayer money to buy US treasuries?” ~ Marty There are a few pretty substantive differences worth noting. First, the Fed doesn't actually use taxpayer money to buy treasuries, though it is taxpayer money that is being paid back to the Fed (that is what a Treasury bond is). But the main difference is that the Treasuries on the Fed's balance sheet are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government, and no principal or interest payment has been missed in nearly 250 years. Alameda was backed by FTT, which is worth less than a beanie baby. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today we are one day closer to cutting into that turkey, enjoying some homemade gravy, and spending some quality time with those nearest and dearest to us. A great time of the year to be grateful, and I, Trevor Cummings, am personally grateful to be filling in for David Bahnsen today. I wish you all a wonderful Thanksgiving, and I encourage you to take a moment to watch or listen to what's happening in markets today (links below). And off we go… Full Blog post here: https://bahnsen.co/3V7jsLO Topics discussed: Dow: +397 (+1.18%) S&P: +1.36% Nasdaq: +1.36% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.76% (-6 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+3.18%) Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (+0.46%) WTI Crude Oil: $81.20/barrel (+1.15%) Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market recap (changes on week): - December corn up $.02 at $6.59- January soybeans down $.04 at $14.36- December soybean oil down 3.28 cents at 73 cents/lb- December soybean meal up $4.50 at $411.40/short ton- December wheat down $.19 at $7.99- July wheat down $.23 at $8.31- WTI Crude Oil down $4.71 at $79.94/barrelWeekly highlights:- After six straight weeks of increasing US ethanol production- output fell last week below 300 million gallons on the week. Weekly gasoline usage also pulled back 3% on the week. - Last week's National Oilseed Processors Association October crush report showed that members collectively crushed 184.5 million bushels of soybeans during the month- right on the dot with pre-report trade estimates. - US ag export sales were relatively strong for corn and soybeans. Soybean sales were especially strong and the second largest volume on record. - Open interest futures and options positions of Chicago wheat and Chicago soybeans were marginally up this week while corn saw a 4% decrease in open interest positions. Money managers sold out of net corn positions in a big way over 60,000 positions while the soybean market saw a more marginal sell off of nearly 11,000 positions. - The UN, Ukraine, and Russia grain corridor agreement was extended for another 120 days starting Nov. 18th, without any changes to the current one. - Last week's USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed all U.S. cattle on feed as of Nov. 1 at 11.706 million head or 98.0% of last year's volume. October placements were down sharply at 93.9% below. - The nation's second largest railroad worker union narrowly rejected the agreement that prevented a national railroad strike two months ago. Without an agreed deal- portions of the railroad industry could strike as early as December 8th. - Weekly US export inspections were up week over week for corn, soybeans, grain sorghum and wheat. Everything was within pre-report trade expectations. - Some of the US export sales help is coming on the heels of a weaking US dollar index which traded at its lowest level since August last week.Find more agriculture news at: brownfieldagnews.comSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Another volatile day with the Dow closing flat after being down nearly -400 points. More to say here: MARKET ACTION Dow: -7 points (-0.02%) – had been down over -300 points at the low and -400 pre-market S&P: -0.31% Nasdaq: -0.35% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.76% (+7 basis points) Top-performing sector: Technology (+0.21%) and Energy (+0.12%) Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (-1.79%) WTI Crude Oil: $81.94/barrel (-4.26%) Key Economic Points of the Day: Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 222,000 – not a big move from the week before or variance from expectations Single-family starts in new housing construction dropped to 855,000, down -6% on the month and -35% from post-COVID highs ASK DAVID “What do you think the impact would be on the stock and bond market if the Fed formally changed their inflation target from 2% to 3%? I assume it would be risk on for equities?” ~ Mike S. Yes, it would be. But they won't. And they don't need to – they basically already did in 2020 with their adjustment to the 2% standard (that is, they no longer target 2%, but rather an “average” of 2%, meaning they can let things run hot in perpetuity to “blend” to 2% depending on how the math before or after works. In other words, they gave themselves “flexibility.” Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

It was a very choppy (up-down) day in markets, to say the least. The chart itself is testimony to how much the market could not make its mind up today. A few nuggets to chew on here … MARKET ACTION Dow: -39 points (-0.12%) S&P: -0.83% Nasdaq: -1.54% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.69% (-11 basis points) Top-performing sector: Utilities (+0.87%) – only other sector up was Consumer Staples Bottom-performing sector: Energy (-2.15%) WTI Crude Oil: $85.32/barrel (-0.32%) Key Economic Points of the Day: Core retail sales were up +6.5% year-over-year in October and up 0.7% on the month (double what was expected). Industrial Production declined -0.1% in October, with mining and utilities output leading the way lower Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

MARKET ACTION Dow: Up +56 points (+0.17%) S&P: +0.87% Nasdaq: 1.45% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.76% (- 10 basis points) Top-performing sector: Communication Services (+1.78%) Bottom-performing sector: Materials (-0.11%) WTI Crude Oil: $86.86/barrel (+1.15%) Key Economic Point of the Day: The Producer Price Index only rose +0.2% in October, half of the +0.4% monthly increase that had been anticipated. And much of that lower figure came from a decline of -0.1% in services, the first decline in wholesale services costs in two years ASK DAVID** “Is purchasing gold and/or silver a good investment?” ~ Cindy W. My view has been for quite some time that it is a non-productive investment. What I mean by then is that it does not generate any cash flow and does not have any internal earnings stream, so the value becomes a matter of speculation or supply/demand around use. But gold is not really owned much for industrial use, and even its cosmetic use is somewhat limited, so those who own gold or silver for investment purposes must defend the notion of gold being a sort of inflation hedge or currency proxy. And maybe it will be that someday, but that day is not the last 42 years, where gold is down by -50% relative to inflation – a stunning and shocking fact to all who hear it. I will also point out that the most common thing I have been told over the years is that gold gives us a hedge or substitute against crazy unstable monetary policy. Well, trillions of printed QE dollars since 2012 later, gold is lower than it was a decade ago. This should have been the golden age for gold; instead, it has many wondering what exactly the thesis is. At the end of the day, gold can go up a lot, and it can go down a lot, but it rarely does what people seem to want it to do when they want it to do it. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market recap (changes on week): - December corn down $.18 at $6.57- November soybeans flat at $14.40- December soybean oil flat at 76.28 cents/lb- December soybean meal down $13.00 at $406/short ton- December wheat down $.27 at $8.18- July wheat down $.25 at $8.54- WTI Crude Oil down $6.16 at $84.65/barrel Weekly highlights:- Ethanol production increased for the sixth straight week- up to 309 million gallons per week.- USDA increased yields of US corn and soybeans last week in their month report while increasing corn for feed use 25 million bushels and soybean use for crush by 10 million bushels.- US ag export sales were disappointing on the week. Export sales were down for corn, soybeans, and wheat. They were up week over week for grain sorghum. Corn once again this marketing year continues to disappoint and fell below all pre-report expectations.- Open interest futures and options positions of Chicago wheat and Chicago corn were marginally up this week while soybeans saw a 5% increase in open interest. Money managers sold out of freed grain positions while the soybean market saw a small increase tot their net long positions.- Weekly USDA export inspections saw a reversal of roles as corn had a much-improved week while soybeans and wheat were significantly down from recent volumes. Both soybeans and wheat fell below all expectations.- 96% of the US winter wheat crop has been planted up to this point and although the condition for the crop is historically, recent rains have improved conditions the last couple weeks. Find more agriculture news at: brownfieldagnews.comSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Market recap (changes on week): - December corn down $.16 at $6.75- November soybeans up $.33 at $14.07- December soybean oil up 3.13 cents at 76.33 cents/lb- December soybean meal down $9.10 at $419/short ton- December wheat down $.37 at $8.45- July wheat down $.24 at $8.79- WTI Crude Oil up $5.41 at $90.81/barrel Weekly highlights: - Ethanol production increased for the fifth straight week- up to nearly 306 million gallons per week. - The Federal Reserve Increased their Federal Funds benchmark 75 basis points for the fourth straight time this year- bringing the rate to 3.75-4.00. - US ag export sales were mixed on the week. Up for corn and wheat, but flat for grain sorghum and down for soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil. Soybean meal and oil fell below all expectations. - Open interest futures and options positions of Chicago wheat continue to be on a slow but consistent increase, Chicago corn future and option open interest positions were up 3% while Chicago soybean open interest was down 7% (22% over two weeks). Money managers increased their net positions of corn and soybeans while selling off some Chicago wheat positions. - Weekly grain exports were week for feed grains- falling below expectations for corn, grain sorghum and wheat. However, export inspections of soybeans were strong and above expectations coming in at the 3rd highest weekly volume over the last year. - 92% of the US winter wheat crop has been planted up to this point- although the condition is historically low. - USDA ERS came out with their 2023-2033 baseline assumptions on Monday- their assumption for US corn production of trend line yield of 181.5 bushels per acre and 92 million planted acres puts corn production at a record 15.265 billion bushels. - Soybean trend line yield of 52 bushels per acre for 2022/23. Find more agriculture news at: brownfieldagnews.comSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

MARKET ACTION Dow: -146 points (-0.46%) S&P: -1.06% Nasdaq: -1.73% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.15% (+9 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+2.04 xxx%) Bottom-performing sector: Technology (-3.00%) and Communication Services -2.83% WTI Crude Oil: $87.95/barrel (-2.29%) Key Economic Point of the Day: 1.485 million continuing claims (up 47k, most since March) ISM Services came in at 54.4 – still expansionary but a point lower than expected, and with New Orders dropping 4 points ASK DAVID “I enjoy listening to your podcasts – thank you for the insights! I am sitting on cash – about 75% of my investable assets. What would be a good philosophy of when to get back into the market and how? I am a believer in dividend based investing.” ~ Adrian One first has to start with the basic principles – not getting invested in a dividend equity portfolio with cash is a riskier than getting invested in one. The reason not to invest immediately is either (a) A belief about market timing that is not grounded in reality, or (b) A desire to not invest all at once at an inopportune time (that being revealed to you in hindsight, not in advance). I reject reason A and am sympathetic to reason B, as long as one does the needed self-assessment to see that reason B is psychological and emotional, not financial or rational. So then if the desire to mitigate timing risk is psychologically helpful, I advise deploying no less than 50% at once, and then the rest either over a period of time periodically (say, 1/10th of the remainder each month for ten months), or tactically (each “bad” down day in markets deploying more). I have no statistical or empirical argument for one over the other as it pertains to how to deploy the second 50%, but feel strongly about getting 50% of uninvested cash at once. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I would have to go back and look at the exact shape but I believe the market action today was quite identical to the last time the Fed announced a known rate hike, where the market bad been down, rallied huge to the upside on the news, sold off substantially, rallied all the way back, then sold off into the close with no new news. It's all just so, so dumb. But I have more to say than that here … MARKET ACTION Dow: -505 points (-1.55%) S&P: -2.50% Nasdaq: -3.36% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.09% (+4 basis points) Top-performing sector: Utilities (-1.02%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (-3.79%) WTI Crude Oil: $89.35/barrel (+1.11%) Key Economic Point of the Day: ADP private sector number came in at +239k for October vs. 198k expected. BLS jobs report is Friday Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

MARKET ACTION Dow: -80 points (-0.24%) S&P: -0.41% Nasdaq: -0.89% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.04% (-3 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+0.99%) Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-1.81%) WTI Crude Oil: $88.57/barrel (+2.36%) Key Economic Points of the Day: ISM Manufacturing fell to 50.2, just barely in expansion mode, and the weakest figure since May 2020. New Orders and Backlogs reflected contraction, and only 8 of 18 sectors saw growth on the month. But … Job Openings went HIGHER in September, coming in at 10.7 million (almost a million higher than the 9.8 million expected) Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I returned from my meetings in Palm Beach at the end of the day yesterday and hit the ground running (both figuratively and literally) very early this morning. I love doing the DC Today. Special thanks to Brian and Trevor for filling in, and off we go with an action-packed recap of today … Market Action Dow: Up +194 points (+0.61%) – but off of a +550 point high S&P: -0.61% Nasdaq: -1.63% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.92% (-9 basis points) Top-performing sector: Industrials (+1.14%) Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-4.12%) WTI Crude Oil: $88.58/barrel (+0.72%) Key Economic Points of the Day: Real GDP grew in Q3 at +2.6% annualized rate as net exports grew in light of energy exports being up and Chinese imports being down. Personal Consumption and Business Investment were up, but only a tad. New Orders for Durable Goods were up +0.4%, below the 0.6% expectation Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today was a mixed bag, where we continue to see varying results from the Dow and the Nasdaq. Some market pundits have dubbed this as value vs. growth or categorized these baskets of equities as a difference in “duration.” Regardless of how you describe it, we saw some downward pressure resulting from less-than-favorable earnings reports on a handful of large tech companies, and some continued positive momentum from the sectors leading the market on the year (Energy, Healthcare, Consumer Staples, etc.). Market Action Dow: +2.37 (0.01%) S&P: -0.74% Nasdaq: -2.04% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.01% (-9 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+1.36%) Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-4.75%) WTI Crude Oil: $88.12/barrel (+3.26%) Key Economic Points of the Day: The trade deficit widened in September by 5.7% (from $87.3 billion to $92.2 billion) There is a lot you could potentially dissect here, but the simplest explanation is that a strong dollar means buyers (exports) can buy less of our goods, and US purchasers (imports) can buy more goods, which expands the deficit – falling exports, rising imports. New home sales fell month over month (from 677,000 to 603,000), but we were still slightly above the average estimates of 593,000 For perspective here, new home sales peaked in August 2020 at 1.04 million Although the number of homes sold declined, the average sale price did rise from $436,800 to $470,600 (slightly below the record high of $479,800) Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

We notched a third day of gains in markets today, up now 11% on the S&P from the intra-day lows a few weeks ago in a broad-based rally in both stocks and bonds, and I have plenty to go around the horn in my video and podcast links below. I have also sprinkled in a few takeaways from over 20 portfolio manager meetings last week in New York to add to your listening pleasure. Take a listen, and reach out to me, Brian Szytel, with questions. Market Action Dow: +337 points, +1.07% S&P: +1.63% Nasdaq: +2.25% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.10% (+ 13 basis points) Top-performing sector: Real Estate +3.94% Bottom-performing sector: Energy -.05% WTI Crude Oil: $84.92 barrel +.40% Key Economic Points of the Day: Consumer sentiment came in lower than expected at 102 versus expectations of 105. The Richmond Fed index came in weaker than expected today at -10. The US Dollar was lower on the day by about 1%, along with interest rates across the yield curve that both aided today's equity rally. Terminal Fed Funds Rate shown ending north of CPI in all of the last rate tightening cycles is shown below. Today we are at 3.3% versus 8.2%, and while those rates will likely converge, we just aren't there yet folks… Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Trevor Cummings here, and I am honored to be joining you for the third day in a row.  As mentioned yesterday, David Bahnsen will be back tomorrow with his weekly commentary – Dividend Cafe.  Additionally, I invite you to subscribe to my weekly writings at thoughtsonmoney.com. Now, off to the updates from this busy Thursday market day… Dow: -91.01 (0.30%) S&P: -0.80% Nasdaq: -0.61% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.232% (+10.3 basis points) Top-performing sector: Communication Services (+0.36%) Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (- 2.51%) WTI Crude Oil: $85.71/barrel (+0.19%) Key Economic Points of the Day: • Liz Truss has resigned as U.K. Prime Minister ◦ This was the shortest tenure in British history ◦ Note, her Finance Minister was dismissed from his post after just 38 days • Jobless claims came in at 214,000 on an expectation of 230,000 ◦ The impacts of Hurricane Ian on the data looked to be much lighter this week ◦ The total number of people collecting unemployment benefits sits at 1.39 million, near a 50-year low ◦ In simple terms, the labor market remains tight • As to be expected, U.S. existing-home sales were down ◦ The figures came in at 4.7 million, nearly on the dot with expectations ◦ This is eight consecutive months of decline and, when compared to September 2021, a slide of 23.8% ◦ Reminder, mortgage interest rates are skyrocketing, the general population is on edge regarding inflation and recession, and this combination of anxiety and affordability is slowing down activity • The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index published today ◦ This regional look is meant to give a sneak peek at what the national ISM data might look like next month ◦ the numbers came in at -8.7 on an expectation of -5 (note, any number below 0 represents declining business conditions) TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to DC Today where I, Trevor Cummings, will be your guest host again on this fine Wednesday. Please join me for the video or podcast (links below), as there is quite a bit to cover and discuss today. David Bahnsen will be back on Friday with his normally scheduled program – Dividend Cafe Dow: -98.54 (-0.32%) S&P: -0.66% Nasdaq: -0.85% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.131% (+13.3 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+2.94%) Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (-2.56%) WTI Crude Oil: $85.63/barrel (+3.39%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Today we saw the published data for new housing starts and building permits Housing starts came in at 1.4mm on an expectation of 1.47mm Down 8.1% seasonally adjusted and down 7.7% year-over-year in September Looking at the attribution, we see new homes fell 4.7% and new apartment construction fell 13.1% Building permits came in at 1.56mm on an expectation of 1.5mm Rising 1.4% in the month of September Permits for new homes fell 3.1%, with apartment construction rising 8.2% Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This is Trevor Cummings joining you as your guest host on DC Today.  You can find my weekly commentary at www.thoughtsonmoney.com.  Also, please join me for the DC Today video and podcast – see below. Market Action Dow: +341.67 (1.13%) S&P: 1.16%% Nasdaq: 0.9% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.994% (+2 basis points) Top-performing sector: Industrials (+2.36%) Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (+0.54%) WTI Crude Oil: $83.22/barrel (-2.6%) Key Economic Point of the Day: • Industrial production in September rose 0.4% which was a surprise to the upside – estimates were 0.1%.  Additionally, August was revised slightly to the upside, as well; a revision from -0.2% to -0.1%. • The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) monthly confidence fell 8 points to 38 in October, making 10 consecutive months of decline.  Note, the index was at 80 last October and this 10-month decline tops the record of consecutive declining months set in '06/'08. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Okay, so one of the largest intra-day market moves on record (from down -550 to up +950 – a 1,500 bottom-to-top move today). So there is market action AND inflation/economic action to unpack, and you have come to the right place: MARKET ACTION Dow: Up +828 points (+2.83%) – was down -550 points at the low S&P: +2.60% Nasdaq: 2.23% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.95% (+5 basis points) Top-performing sector: Financials (+4.14%) – I am not going to take the time to look it up, but I will safely guess that this is the best day in years for Financials; in fact, I bet HALF of this would be the best day of 2022 for financials … NOTE: Energy was right behind it at +4.08% Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (+0.98%) WTI Crude Oil: $89.25/barrel (+2.27%) Key Economic Point of the Day: CPI (headline) increased +0.4% for the month where +0.3% had been expected. Headline inflation is up +8.2% on the year vs. a peak of +8.9% several months back. Core CPI (ex food and energy) was up +0.6% in September. Energy prices fell -2.1% but food prices increased +0.8%. It is all about food inflation in the aggregate data. Services is the source of increased inflation. Rents were up +0.8% on the month and primary residence impact is up +7.2% year-over-year. This is simply not true in the present tense but the lag effect is the driver here as we shall all see in a couple months' time. The Fed has NO influence on this, but Health insurance prices were up a staggering 2.1% on the month and are up +28% on the year Airfare is up 43% on the year (base effect from limited travel a year ago) Goods prices were FLAT – slowest year-over-year increase since May 2021 (+6.6%) Used car prices down -1.1% on the month Clothing down -0.3% Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

An odd day (old school) as the Dow started down a bit, rallied way higher (up +400 points at one point), fell into negative territory, then closed up +36 as old-guard defensive sectors did very well (Real Estate, Consumer Staples, Health Care) and the cool stuff got hit. More to say on everything here. MARKET ACTION Dow: +36 points (+0.12%) S&P: -0.65% Nasdaq: -1.10% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.937% (+5 basis points) Top-performing sector: Real Estate (+1.02%) and Consumer Staples (+0.93%) Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (-1.63%) and Technology (-1.52%) WTI Crude Oil: $88.68/barrel (-2.73%) Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

MARKET ACTION Dow: -42 points (-0.14%) S&P: -0.20% Nasdaq: -0.25% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.75% (+13 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+2.06%) – third day in a row top sector Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (-2.25%) WTI Crude Oil: $87.97/barrel (+1.69%) Key Economic Point of the Day: ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) came in at 56.7, still well into expansion and above the expectation but less than month's levels. Services are expanding while Goods are slowing. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The second violent rally day in a row took place today, with the market up nearly +6% to start off October, erasing all of the downturn of the last ten days of September (for now). More to say in our daily podcast, of course! MARKET ACTION Dow: +825 points (+2.80%) S&P: +3.06% Nasdaq: +3.34% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.63% (-2.2 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (+4.34%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Staples (+1.53%) WTI Crude Oil: $86.30/barrel (+3.17%) Key Economic Points of the Day: Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

We reversed much, although not all, of yesterday's broad-based rally in today's market sell-off – what one day giveth another taketh away. I unpack it all in a deep capital markets dive for you in today's video and podcast links below that you'll not want to miss. Dow: -458 points (-1.54%) S&P: -2.11% Nasdaq: -2.84% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.77% (down 6 basis points) Top-performing sector: Energy (- .13%) Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (-4.07%) WTI Crude Oil: $81.47/barrel (- .83%) Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

I'd love to say “Fed comments caused the market to drop today” but it would be untrue. Within seconds of the Fed release the market went from +200 to -200, but then the market went back to +250, and that was all AFTER the Fed announcement, the release, and the Powell press conference. THEN, after all that, the market unraveled into the final thirty minutes of trading. Dow: -522 points (-1.70%) S&P: (-1.71%) Nasdaq: (-1.79%) 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.53% (-4 basis points) Top-performing sector: Consumer Staples (-0.34%) Bottom-performing sector: Consumer Discretionary (-2.37%) WTI Crude Oil: $83.04/barrel (+0.12%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Existing home sales dropped -0.4% in August and are down -19.9% from a year ago Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A volatile day to the downside in markets today as traders await comments from the Fed tomorrow and as bond yields bring down risk asset valuation. Dow: -313 points (-1.01%) S&P: -1.13% Nasdaq: -0.95% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.56% (+7 basis points) Top-performing sector: Technology (-0.51%) Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (-2.57%) WTI Crude Oil: $84.16/barrel (-1.38%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Housing starts came in at 1.575 million annualized for the month of August, a whopping 125k above expectations. Nearly all of the excess vs. expectations were in multi-family, with single-family coming in the second lowest since mid-2020. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Learn more about CI Futures here: http://completeintel.com/2022PromoIt has been a terrible week in markets. It is not looking good for anybody, at least on the long side. A lot of that seemed to change when the CPI number came out. It's like people woke up and terminal rate is going to be higher and just everything flushes out. We talked through why the dollar is where it is and how long we expect it to stay there. Brent Johnson recently said that the USD & equities will both rise. And so we dived a little bit deep into that.We also looked at crude. Crude's obviously been falling. Tracy discussed how long is that going to last.We also did a little bit of Fed talk because the Fed meets this week. And we want to really understand when does the Fed stop? After last week's US CPI print, the terminal rate rose from 4% pretty dramatically. Does QT accelerate? Key themes:1. $USD

Special thanks to all who have reached out to say how much they like and appreciate the new format. Between the addition of a podcast, a video, a transcription of the podcast, and the continuation of a daily written synopsis, along with the legacy version on Monday and the real meat of Dividend Cafe on Friday, I think the vast majority of readers have been extremely positive in their feedback. Ironically, the one or two nasty emails we got (you should see the stuff my communications team receives sometimes) were not even from clients, soooooo …. I do recognize that sometimes people like routine and familiarity (I am one of them), but change is part of life, and these changes were done to add mediums that are most popular and sought after, and to harmonize the workload with the reality of someone who has worked 16-18 hours per day for 25 years. Beyond that, I'm pretty much done talking about it … Okay – off we go! MARKET ACTION Dow: -173 points (-0.56%) S&P: (-1.13%) Nasdaq: (-1.43%) 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.45% (+3.7 basis points) Top-performing sector: Health Care (+0.55%) Bottom-performing sector: Energy (-2.54%) WTI Crude Oil: $85.30/barrel (-3.62%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The day after the market sell-off you had a small move higher in each equity index but I unpack it all and then some here … MARKET ACTION Dow: +30 points (+0.10%) S&P: +0.34% Nasdaq: +0.74% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.41% (- 1 basis point) Top-performing sector: Energy (+2.85%) Bottom-performing sector: Real Estate (-1.39%) WTI Crude Oil: $88.68/barrel (+1.57%) Key Economic Point of the Day: Even as the Consumer Price Index came in a bit higher than expected yesterday, the Producer Price Index dropped -0.1% in August (consensus was for no change) ASK DAVID “When you refer to the futures market predicting a 88% chance of a 75bp rate hike or whatever the percentage and outcome may be, how is that determined?” ~ Don D. The CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) makes a market in fed funds rate futures. Real people using real money to buy real futures contracts on what the real rate may be at real future intervals. This futures market is the gold standard of measuring market expectations around the fed funds rate. ON DECK I will be on set co-hosting for an hour tomorrow with Stuart Varney (9am-10am ET) on Fox Business. CHECK OUT I was on set with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business early this morning talking energy, inflation, markets, growth, and more. A worthwhile interview! Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This episode is also available as a blog post: http://confoundedinterest.net/2022/05/17/lets-get-ready-to-stumble-into-recession-gasoline-prices-up-89-under-biden-wti-crude-oil-up-115-as-real-wage-growth-declines/

Most price signals have extended into overbought territory, although pullbacks could be temporary over the next quarter. Elsewhere, metals have stabilized and  oversold signals could present buying opportunities. Trading performance was positive in Q1, built on the success of Q4. Short palladium and long soybean oil were the  best performing trades, while sharp moves in wheat and oil detracted from overall gains. At times, volatility can lead to frequent or contradictory signals. Evidently, returns across commodities are not equal. At times, there is wide divergence between sectors such as oil/gas, agriculture and metals. That means the risk of a core long position can be offset with tactical long/short positions in specific commodities.​For now, here is our base-case into Q2:The copper/gold ratio, a gauge for risk-on/risk-off, is stuck in a resistance range, similar to what occurred in 2017-2018 when market volatility increased.WTI Crude Oil broke above a decade-long resistance level at $105/bbl and faces stronger resistance near the 2008 price high at $147/bbl-$150/bbl.The recent decline in stocks relative to commodities is starting to stabilize, although failure to hold a decade-long uptrend indicates further downside in the ratio, especially if bond yields continue to rise.Visit www.danteesoutlook.com for more info.

Outubro de 2014 foi a última vez que o WTI Crude Oil, ou seja, o petróleo norte-americano transacionou a valores mais altos que 90 dólares por barril. Em linha está o petróleo inglês, Brent Crude Oil, onde a última vez que transacionou a valores a cima de 90 dólares por barril foi outubro de 2014.

you have to celebrate when things go your way because there will be other times, especially in a commodities traders life - very painful times, we all know it. I was dead on the money with my call on Bitcoin and WTI Crude Oil. Now - S&P 500 and NASDAQ are next. until further notice - sit on your hands and keep up the conversation with me. These are desperate times, we just don't know it yet! --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/jenspinkernell/message

TRADING BLOCK Market up and Vol up again too. VIX - 15.5, VVIX - 82.5 Most active indices: VIX - 157k, SPY - 840k, SPX: 519k Earnings: Tuesday - FedEx, Lennar Wednesday - General Mills, KB Home, Paychex, Rite Aid Thursday - Nike, Walgreens Boots Alliance Friday - Constellation Brands       ODD BLOCK Covered calls in Caesars Entertainment Corporation (CZR) Long-term call love in Mallinckrodt PLC (MNK) Call love in Laureate Education Inc (LAUR)     STRATEGY BLOCK Uncle Mike Tosaw discusses box spreads     MAIL BLOCK #QuestionoftheWeek: Let's play a guessing game. Which of the following names has the highest 30-day REALIZED volatility? No cheating. What does your gut tell you? 38% - $TSLA 30% - #BITCOIN 28% - #WTI #CRUDE OIL 4% - $QQQ     AROUND THE BLOCK This Week in the Market: Jun 25 - New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence Jun 26 - Durable Goods, International Trade Jun 27 - Jobless Claims, GDP Jun 28 - Personal Income, Consumer Sentiment

TRADING BLOCK Market up and Vol up again too. VIX - 15.5, VVIX - 82.5 Most active indices: VIX - 157k, SPY - 840k, SPX: 519k Earnings: Tuesday - FedEx, Lennar Wednesday - General Mills, KB Home, Paychex, Rite Aid Thursday - Nike, Walgreens Boots Alliance Friday - Constellation Brands       ODD BLOCK Covered calls in Caesars Entertainment Corporation (CZR) Long-term call love in Mallinckrodt PLC (MNK) Call love in Laureate Education Inc (LAUR)     STRATEGY BLOCK Uncle Mike Tosaw discusses box spreads     MAIL BLOCK #QuestionoftheWeek: Let's play a guessing game. Which of the following names has the highest 30-day REALIZED volatility? No cheating. What does your gut tell you? 38% - $TSLA 30% - #BITCOIN 28% - #WTI #CRUDE OIL 4% - $QQQ     AROUND THE BLOCK This Week in the Market: Jun 25 - New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence Jun 26 - Durable Goods, International Trade Jun 27 - Jobless Claims, GDP Jun 28 - Personal Income, Consumer Sentiment

Trading Block: Earnings! Before the bell today:  Coca-Cola, CME Group Inc., the biggest futures-market operator, said profit soared in its third quarter, lifted by higher trading volume and growth in the company's market data and information services business. After the bell today:  BAIDU, Electronic Arts, Expedia, LinkedIn Corporation, Starbucks. EA - ATM Straddle $4.70 - Approx. 6.2% Also, on this day (October 29) in 1929:  The New York Stock Exchange crashed in what would be called the Crash of '29 or "Black Tuesday." Odd Block: Calls trade in CBS Corp (CBS), calls and puts trade in Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (WBA), and calls trade in Kate Spade and Co. (KATE) Listener Mail: Listener questions and comments Question from 603 - Before a report like FOMC, is buying calls bad due to Vol premiums? Question from 777 - What quirks are there with time decay - during the last few weeks with ITM vs. OTM? Question from Angus G - On your TopStep radio show just now you mentioned "buying WTI Crude Oil calls". What is the ticker symbol for these products?! When I put WTI into my broker I get "W&T Offshore". I thought USO was the best/only way to speculate on CL using options? You mentioned however that there might be better options that more directly mirror crude... Thanks Around the Block: Earnings on Friday: CBOE Holdings, CVS, Chevron.

Trading Block: Earnings! Before the bell today: Coca-Cola, CME Group Inc., the biggest futures-market operator, said profit soared in its third quarter, lifted by higher trading volume and growth in the company's market data and information services business. After the bell today: BAIDU, Electronic Arts, Expedia, LinkedIn Corporation, Starbucks. EA - ATM Straddle $4.70 - Approx. 6.2% Also, on this day (October 29) in 1929: The New York Stock Exchange crashed in what would be called the Crash of '29 or "Black Tuesday." Odd Block: Calls trade in CBS Corp (CBS), calls and puts trade in Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (WBA), and calls trade in Kate Spade and Co. (KATE) Listener Mail: Listener questions and comments Question from 603 - Before a report like FOMC, is buying calls bad due to Vol premiums? Question from 777 - What quirks are there with time decay - during the last few weeks with ITM vs. OTM? Question from Angus G - On your TopStep radio show just now you mentioned "buying WTI Crude Oil calls". What is the ticker symbol for these products?! When I put WTI into my broker I get "W&T Offshore". I thought USO was the best/only way to speculate on CL using options? You mentioned however that there might be better options that more directly mirror crude... Thanks Around the Block: Earnings on Friday: CBOE Holdings, CVS, Chevron.