Radix Multifamily Podcast

U.S. job growth was better than expected for May, but there were 279,000 fewer jobs created during the first five months of 2025 compared to 2024. That has likely been one of the reasons occupancy rates have not rebounded in many markets the way we expected them to this year...Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

Heading into the summer, most multifamily markets showed significant improvements compared to a year ago. At that point, rent growth was still deteriorating and supply had yet to peak in many markets. While effective rent growth is far from robust in most places, it's positive in most places.While effective rents were still below last year's level in several markets at the end of May, the year-over-year declines were typically much milder. At a national level, effective rents were up 0.9% from a year ago and the occupancy rate was 93.7%. Markets such as Chicago, Seattle, and Washington, DC outperformed the U.S. benchmark for both metrics...Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

Last year, weekly traffic for multifamily properties peaked during the first week of May at a national level, and it appears the pattern could be repeating again in 2025. Traffic counts have been down slightly in the last two weeks, and they are back to levels from early March. In 2024, the U.S. occupancy rate peaked approximately eight weeks after traffic began to decline, which is not surprising since traffic is a leading indicator...Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

Annual effective rent growth was 0.8% for the U.S., and the average occupancy rate was 93.67%. While multifamily performance has certainly improved in many markets compared to a year ago, improvements in the national average have somewhat stalled since the beginning of leasing season...Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

The latest U.S. jobs report was stronger than expected, especially given the generally economic uncertainty often echoed by media reports. While there are a few caveats to the report, the positive tone should not have been too surprising given the recent performance for multifamily. U.S. annual effective rent growth was 0.9% for the latest week, but many markets and submarkets have returned to growth rates of at least 3.0%. Annual wage growth was 3.8% in April, which should help rent growth normalize as supply and demand become balanced in more locations...Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

Multifamily operational performance remained steady from the prior week and showed no signs of demand being impacted by headlines about the economy.Nationally, effective rents were up 1.0% from the prior year and the average occupancy rate was just under 93.7%.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

Annual effective rent growth for multifamily increased slightly to 1.0% for the U.S. average. Occupancy checked in just above 93.7%. This week's report also details how job growth expectations have changed for 2025, which could impact demand for housing this year.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

Tariffs have dominated headlines. In this week's report, we cover the recent developments and how they could potentially impact demand for multifamily housing...Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

While U.S. annual effective rent growth averaged just 0.5% in Q1, it was much better than the -3.3% growth a year ago. Rent growth was still negative in some markets, but the pace improved from the prior year in 35 of 45 markets.Check out this week's report for the latest stats, as well as one factor that is likely contributing to higher resident retention...Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

According to a recent report from the National Association of Realtors, 4.26 million homes were sold in February on a seasonally adjusted basis. The total was up 4.2% from the prior month, and it was stronger than the 3.2% increase expected by economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. Despite the strong sequential growth in sales, the volume was down 1.2% from a year ago and the industry continues to struggle with high mortgage rates and asking prices. In 2024, home sales were at the lowest level since 1995, and the median age of first-time homebuyers jumped to 38 years old. .. Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

The new administration is rapidly implementing many of the policies touted on the campaign trail. While the changes are meant for the long-term impact, consumers are becoming worried about the economy in the near term with so many large movements in a short period. Tariffs, job cuts in the federal government, changes in government funding, and other factors led to the University of Michigan's survey of consumer sentiment to drop significantly in March. The latest reading of the index was at 57.9, which was down 11% from the prior month and 27% below a year ago. It was the lowest level of the index since November 2022...Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

The U.S. labor market added 151,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis in February according to last week's report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). While the number was roughly 20,000 to 30,000 jobs below economists' expectations, it was stronger than the 125,000 jobs added in January.Other macro indicators, such as a tight unemployment rate of 4.1% and strong annual wage growth at 4.0%, were steady from prior reports.If the job growth, unemployment rate, and wage growth numbers hold throughout the year, they would create significant demand for housing...Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

Last year's home sales were at lowest level in almost 30 yearsA recent report by The Wall Street Journal cited preliminary data from the National Association of Realtors. High prices and elevated mortgage rates were among key factors causing existing home sales to decline to 4.06 million in 2024, down slightly from 4.09 million in 2023. For comparison, the years during the Great Recession even had a slightly higher volume of home sales compared to 2024. At least 5.0 million existing homes were sold per year from 2015 to 2022. The national median home price was $404,000 in December 2024, up 6% from the prior year. A lack of inventory was a key factor for increased home prices despite higher mortgage rates. Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

Job growth to slow in 2025, but remain positiveThis week's economic analysis will focus on the results of the quarterly survey of economists byThe Wall Street Journal, which includes aggregated forecasts of more than 70 economists.The report, which was released last weekend, showed the chance of a recession was just 22% for2025, the lowest since January 2022. The average projection for job growth was approximately 1.6 million for 2025, down from roughly 2.2 million jobs in 2024 based on recent data from theBureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The supply of available labor is expected to remain tight with an expected unemployment rate of 4.3%. Growth in the labor force continues to be a limiting factor for job growth. For multifamily operations, the good news is the potential of slowing job growth coincides with a certain slowdown in new multifamily deliveries, which should reduce the effects of supply and demand getting out of balance...Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

Job growth closes 2024 unexpectedly strongThe U.S. labor market added 256,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis in December according to last week's report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The growth was much stronger than the roughly 150,000 jobs expected by economists. The unemployment rate remained low at 4.1%.On one hand, it is a great sign to see robust job gains, especially for those that have been unemployed for a significant time. It is also beneficial for multifamily because job growth contributes to household demand.The downside is the continued strength might also delay further interest rate cuts by the Fed in the near term, which can cause other ripple effects. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both trended lower after the release of the jobs report.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

U.S. Annual Effective Rent Growth Turns PositiveThe Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its final national jobs report this Friday. In all, the labor market was much stronger in 2024 than many economists predicted. The final report should show roughly 2 million jobs were added last year, and the unemployment rate hovered in the low 4% range.Economists will be anticipating upcoming releases in February and March when the BLS provides its annual revisions to job growth for the U.S. and metropolitan areas. Based on initial estimates announced last summer, there could be some significant revisions to the previous totals, and the new numbers could reshape forecasts for operational performance for multifamily by some degree.While elevated supply totals had a major impact in 2024, the BLS's revisions could help explain why some markets underperformed in a year when so many jobs were supposedly added...Read more: http://radix.com/raot-reports/ 

U.S. job growth bounced back in NovemberAfter a dismal report for October, job gains were strong in November with 227,000 jobs added to the U.S. economy on a seasonally adjusted basis. It outperformed the consensus expectations of approximately 200,000 jobs.October's report of 12,000 jobs added, which was revised up to 36,000 jobs, was influenced by special circumstances related to two hurricanes, a strike by Boeing workers, and a short survey collection period. In total, job gains for the prior two months were revised up by 56,000 jobs.Job creation is one of the biggest drivers for housing demand, including multifamily. Job growth in 2025 is likely to resemble a pace like the past six months, which has been 143,000 jobs added per month. With lower levels of new supply, and many markets already on the upswing, national average effective rent growth should trend closer to 3% by the end of the year.

This is a weekly narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.Consumer confidence reaches a 16-month highBased on a report from the Conference Board, consumer confidence improved in November to one of its highest levels in the last three years. An optimistic outlook on the labor market, a declining risk of a near-term recession, and expectations of lower inflation all contributed to the improvement. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was November 18, which means the outcome of the U.S. election on November 5 factored into many of the responses. While consumers generally believed inflation would head towards a lower rate, some economists warn that tariffs and other policies from the Trump administration could keep inflation at a higher rate.Retail sales were strong to start the holiday shopping seasonSpending by holiday shoppers last week echoed the improved consumer confidence reading. According to data from Adobe Analytics, consumers spent $10.8B on Black Friday this year, upfrom $9.8B the prior year. Thanksgiving Day also set a record with $6.1B in sales, up by 8.8% from the prior year.Consumer spending represents approximately 70% of the U.S. economy, and this holiday season's totals should bode well for GDP to close out the year. Consumer spending grew by a healthy 3.5% in Q3 2024 based on last week's report from the Commerce Department. Job growth should bounce back in this week's reportThe Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its report on November's employment growth for the U.S. on Friday. Last month's report was the most dismal in a few years, but some special circumstances influenced the results. Hurricane impacts, worker strikes, and a shorter collection period weighed on the numbers. Forecasts for November's job gain are in the 150,000 to 200,000 range. In October, only 12,000 jobs were added. An equally troubling note from last month's report was that job growth for August and September was revised down by a combined 112,000 jobs. As mentioned, consumers remain optimistic about the labor market despite previous month's results. Multifamily HighlightsLeasing activity continued to be steady in last week's report, a trend that has been consistent since September. Multifamily operational benchmarks are displaying normal trends for this time of year, setting up for improved performance in many locations in 2025. Annual effective rent growth had a slight downtick and was at -0.3% in this week's report, but it is still in much better shape than earlier in the year. Comparing average annual rent growth for November to the third quarter's average, 31 of 45 markets showed improved performance. Of course, many markets still had negative annual growth, but most are headed in the right direction. Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

This is a weekly narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.Existing home sales picked up in OctoberBased on a report from the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales increased 3.4% from September to 3.96 million in October on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. The annual volume of home sales had declined in six of the previous seven months. Sales were up 2.9% compared to October 2023.The median existing home price increased 4.0% at a national level, but it was up 7.6% in the Northeast and 7.2% in the Midwest. Prices were up just 0.9% in the South. The West was in between those rates at 4.4%.Interestingly, multifamily operational performance this year has had a similar theme in the regional rankings. The Northeast and Midwest regions have consistently been the strongest. Many markets in the West have rebounded, and the South has several markets that continue tostruggle from an imbalance of supply and demand. The pickup in home sales occurred after the first of two recent interest rate cuts by the Fed, but mortgage rates have increased steadily since the end of September.  Permitting levels for multifamily are down 21% from a year agoAccording to data from the Census Bureau and HUD, the total number of residential units permitted during the last 12 months was down 7.7% from the prior year. The drop was almost exclusively driven by a decline in the multifamily industry. There were 393,000 multifamily units permitted in the 12 months ending October 2024 on a seasonally adjusted basis. It was one of the lowest levels in the past decade, and it was down 20.9% from 497,000 units permitted in the year ending October 2023. The decline will set up a period of fewer deliveries in the coming years, and it will likely lead to improved operational performance in many markets.Single-family permitting was down just 1.8% from the prior year with 968,000 units permitted in the last 12 months. Looking at all types of residential construction, the Midwest region had the biggest gains in the last year with an increase of 10.9%. Numbers to watch this weekEven with the Thanksgiving holiday this week, there are still some notable reports that will be published. The Conference Board released its Consumer Confidence Survey today, which includes surveys completed after the U.S. presidential election. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, will be released on Wednesday.The Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its second estimate of GDP for the third quarteron Wednesday. The initial estimate was 2.8% growth, which was down slightly from the previous quarter, but was still considered to be at a strong level. Consumer spending is the biggest driver of GDP growth, and the Census Bureau recently revised retail sales upward for the month of September.  Multifamily HighlightsOperational metrics remained steady from the prior week, with slight declines due to normal seasonality. National annual effective rent growth had a slight tick downward after last week's report of flat growth, but annual changes in effective rents and occupancy should turn positive by early 2025.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

This is a weekly narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends ReportSlight Uptick in Inflation, but U.S. Economy Still in Good ShapeBased on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices increased 2.6% in October from the prior year. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, increased 3.3% on an annual basis. Both numbers met economists' expectations. Despite a slight increase in the headline inflation number, the report was viewed favorably by investors. Compared to a year ago, gasoline prices were down 12.2% in October and there was a slight decline in vehicle prices. Prices were up 4.5% for electricity and 8.2% for transportation services.Rent growth for multifamily should come back into balance due to normalizing growth in consumer prices, strong wage growth, and a decline in new supply levels.  Strong Retail Sales to Start Q4The Commerce Department reported retail sales increased 0.4% monthly in October, and September's growth was revised upward to 0.8%. It was a good sign headed into the holiday shopping season. Some of the strongest growth was in electronics and appliance stores, as well as auto dealerships.According to a Reuter's report, investors lowered the odds of the Fed cutting interest rates in December after the retail sales report. They dropped from roughly a 70% chance to about 60%.Multiple economic readings suggest the economy could be strong enough without the extra boostfrom the Fed next month.  New Housing Data Released This WeekThe U.S. Census Bureau's latest housing report for new home sales and permits for residential construction, including multifamily, will be released today. The National Association of Realtors will release its monthly report on existing home sales on Thursday.New supply readings for multifamily have trended downward throughout the year, setting up a window of lower supply in coming years. The single-family market has remained very unaffordable due to escalated prices and persistently high mortgage rates.  Multifamily HighlightsOperational metrics were steady from the prior week, and it appears 2025 could be a bounce back year for many markets if the economy remains strong. So far, the industry has avoided any unusual erosion in performance through the first half of the fourth quarter.  Leasing activity has been consistent each week since early September, and national annual effective rent growth had its first non-negative reading in 19 months. Rent growth was flat from the prior year, and it has showed incremental improvements since midsummer.  The usage and value of concessions has receded in many markets on the front end of the industry's recovery from sluggish performance last year.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

This is a weekly narration of our Rent and Operating Trends ReportFed Cuts Rates Again, Notes Low Growth for Market RentsThe federal funds rate was lowered by 25 basis point last week following a 50-point cut in September. The Fed is trying to keep the labor market in solid shape while also managing inflation.Discussing inflation, Fed Chair Powell made a reference to the rental housing market. In summary, he said there is low inflation for market rents on new leases. That observation isconsistent with the readings from Radix data. At the national level, effective rents are still lower than they were at the end of 2022. Mortgage Rates Head the Other DirectionIt might seem counterintuitive, but mortgage rates have increased for six consecutive weeksdespite the Fed lowering the federal funds rate. According to Freddie Mac, the average interest for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased from 6.08% in late September to 6.79% last week. Itwas the highest mortgage rates have been since July.Mortgage rates are influenced by Treasury yields. A strong outlook for the economy can lead tohigher yields which puts upward pressure on mortgage rates, especially if inflation increases. This trend continues to impact the for-sale housing market, while providing some benefit to rental housing demand. Freddie Mac noted that home purchase applications have dropped 10% since mortgage rates started to increase in early October. Numbers to Watch This WeekThe U.S. presidential election has dominated news cycles, but a few notable economic reports will be released this week. October's results for the consumer and producer price indexes will provide the latest reading on inflation. The Commerce Department will release its report on last month's retail sales as the holiday shopping season gets into swing. Consumer spending has been strong and it contributed to the better-than-expected GDP growth for Q3 2024. Multifamily HighlightsAnnual effective rent growth was on the doorstep of positive territory in this week's report. At the U.S. level, effective rents were down a mere 0.1% from the prior year. One of the reasons for the improvement in rent growth the past few months has been a decline in concessions. Effective rents are up at least 4.0% from a year ago in Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Columbus, Detroit, New York, San Jose, and Seattle. Many of the top performing markets have seen a gradual easing of concessions throughout the year. In San Jose, the average concession value peaked at close to $180 per unit a year ago. The market's average was just below $40 per unit last week. In Chicago, it went from almost $50 per unit last December to $10 in the current report. Those numbers are based on the average of all floor plans and properties whether they use concessions or not. Expect to see this trend continue as multifamily fundamentals come back into balance.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

This is a weekly narration of our Rent and Operating Trends ReportU.S. Job Growth Slowed Significantly in OctoberBased on last week's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the U.S. labor market added 12,000 jobs in October. It was the lowest monthly total since December 2020, but sluggish growth was expected due to some special circumstances.Impacts from the hurricanes, a strike by Boeing workers, and a shorter collection period of employer data all contributed to the lower reading. There is a chance November shows a bounce back as those trends normalize.The other pessimistic note in the report is that job gains for the prior two months were revised down by a combined 112,000 jobs.Interestingly, ADP's estimate of job gain was incredibly strong at 233,000 for October. The Overall Economy Remains Very StrongWhile last week's labor market report was subpar, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported GDP growth of 2.8% for the third quarter. While the rate was slightly below last quarter's growth of 3.0%, it still suggests the economy is robust.The number was boosted by consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending. A decrease in housing investment was partially to blame for GDP underperforming the prior quarter's growth. Will the Fed Cut Rates Again this Week?It is widely expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. Annual growth for the all-items consumer price index slowed to 2.4% in September, the lowest in more than three years, and it was similar to inflation before the pandemic.Lower interest rates can help keep consumer spending at a strong rate and allow businesses to invest more in hiring and equipment upgrades.If the Fed does not lower interest rates this week, the committee will have another opportunity before the end of the year. Its next regularly scheduled meeting is on December 17-18. Multifamily HighlightsOperational metrics barely budged from the prior week, which is a good sign during a seasonally slow period. That is especially true for metrics like occupancy rate and traffic which have been at their lowest levels in the past few years. In addition to the amount of supply being delivered, slower job growth has likely weighed on performance as well.Rent growth did not experience as big of a decline in October this year compared to 2023. At the national level, effective rents declined 46 basis points in October this year compared to a 133 point drop last year. On an annual basis, rents are still down 0.2% from a year ago, but that metric is poised to turn positive.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and operating Trends Report.Top Metros for Job GrowthLast week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly report on metro-level job growth. It is one of the most important indicators of multifamily demand because new jobs tend to create new households, and a portion of them will move into apartments. On a seasonally adjusted basis, New York and Los Angeles added 164,000 and 91,000 jobs in the last year, respectively. Dallas, Houston, and Miami were next on the list, adding between 56,000 and 79,000 jobs in the past 12 months.Charleston's annual job growth of 3.7% was the strongest relative change out of the 45 markets published by Radix. Wilmington and San Antonio each had annual job growth of 2.6%. Based on the report, Minneapolis and Portland have lost approximately 5,500 and 8,000 jobs, respectively, but Radix data indicates demand for apartments has remained strong. Both have positive annual rent growth and occupancy rates above 94.4%. It will be worth watching whether the numbers are ultimately revised.  Job Creation Compared to New Supply To put jobs data into context, real estate economists will often compare the number of jobs created in a market relative to the of new housing units being constructed.As of the latest estimates, New York, Los Angeles, and Charleston have created approximately five times as many jobs in the last year compared to the number of new multifamily units delivered. While each metro area has a different long-term average for the number due to a variety of factors, a five-to-one ratio is considered very favorable for operators to absorb the new supply delivered to the market. Markets such as Phoenix, Atlanta, and Raleigh are only adding approximately two jobs compared to each new apartment unit delivered, suggesting that operations will be more challenging. Factoring in single-family construction in those markets further dilutes the demand.As new supply slows, those ratios will improve if the labor market remains steady.Final Jobs Report before U.S. Presidential ElectionThe national jobs report for October will be released by the BLS this Friday, November 1. It will be delivered just days before the presidential election, and it could have mixed signals on the strength of the labor market due to recent events. For its “First Friday” report on the national labor market, the BLS surveys employers based on the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. It's worth noting that hurricanes Helene and Milton made landfall on September 26 and October 10, respectively. Unemployment insurance claims spiked in states affected by the hurricanes during the first half of October. As an example, North Carolina reported 11,655 initial unemployment insurance claims the week ending October 5, and another 9,290 initial claims for the week of the 12th. A year earlier it was closer to 3,600 claims per week. In just that one state, more than 13,000 people lost their jobs in a two week span compared to more normal period. Additionally, roughly 33,000 machinists at Boeing have been on strike since September 14. Those are some of the factors that could lead to a more pessimistic report after the very strong reading of 254,000 jobs created the previous month. Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Webiste

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.Retail Sales Stronger than Expected, AgainConsumer spending outpaced expectations in September, and August's better-than-expected results were unrevised. Retail sales were up 0.4% from the prior month and 1.7% from a year ago. Discretionary spending at restaurants, drinking establishments, and clothing stores helped boost the number. It is yet to be seen if strong sales will continue through the holiday season. While spending is up, consumer sentiment remains sluggish even though the Bureau of Labor Statistics recently reported strong wage growth and more moderate inflation.  Strong GDP Estimates for Q3 2024The Atlanta Fed's latest estimate for Q3 GDP growth is 3.4%. The organization's model, GDPNow, had it as low as 2% in August, but recent economic reports gave it a boost during the last two months. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its advance estimate of GDP on October 30.There is growing sentiment that continued strength in the economy could lead to a more moderate interest rate cut of 25 basis points by the end of the year.  Permitting for Multifamily Housing Yet to See an UptickFor the 12 months ending September 2024, total housing permits were down 2.9% from the prior month and down 5.7% from a year ago on a seasonally adjusted basis. Permitting for multifamily units continued to be the main driver of the decline. The industry had 398,000 units permitted in the last year, down 17.4% on an annual basis. The latest multifamily permitting level is down significantly from the construction boom period a couple of years ago when it eclipsed more than 700,000 units permitted within a 12-month period, but it is also down from the period immediately before the pandemic. From 2015-2019, the industry's annual permitting level averaged 442,000 units. Normal, or even muted, levels of supply are on the way the next couple of years which should help operational metrics rebalance after a period of significant challenges. Multifamily HighlightsTraffic and occupancy continued to tick down in the latest week's results. The trend can mostly be attributed to seasonality, but the rates themselves are weaker than in other comparable periods.Headed into 2024, Radix forecasts indicated occupancy would average at lower rate than the prior year due to elevated supply and slowing job growth. That prediction has come to fruition, but results are expected to rebound in 2025 as supply slows significantly in many markets. Effective rents were stable from the previous week. If occupancy improves in 2025, concessions should moderate. As of the latest week, roughly half of markets had lower effective rents compared to the prior year.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website 

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.Economists predict 1.5 million jobs to be added in the next 12 monthsAt the beginning of each quarter, The Wall Street Journal surveys more than 70 economists on a variety of topics. For the October 2024 results, the group predicted an average of 130,397 jobs to be added per month for the next year, or a total of more than 1.5 million jobs annually. The overall average was very consistent with the surveys from the prior two quarters, but there were fewer outliers, particularly on the downside. In the April 2024 survey, two responses indicated more than a million jobs would be lost during the next 12 months. In this month's survey, all respondents indicated positive growth for the next year, with the lowest at 240,000 jobs added annually.The optimistic, but conservative, outlook for the job market is positive for the multifamily industry. Chances of a recession are at the lowest since in more than two yearsBased on the same survey, the probability of a recession during the next 12 months ticked down from 28% last quarter to 26% this quarter. It was the survey's lowest average probability of a recession since January 2022. The probability was as high as 63% in October 2022. While the U.S. did not go into a recession, a wave of high-profile layoffs occurred later than year and in early 2023, especially in the tech sector.In last week's report, we noted Goldman Sachs recently lowered its chance of a recession to 15%following the strong labor market report. Interest rates poised to decline again by the end of the yearFinally, more than 80% of the survey's respondents thought the Fed would cut interest rates by at least 50 basis points by the end of the year. The midpoint of the federal funds rate is 4.875%today. Economists predicted it to decline to approximately 4.4% by the end of 2024 and 3.3% by the end of next year. Multifamily HighlightsThe national occupancy rate declined to 93.59% last week. While occupancy normally declines in the fall season, it took until late November last year before occupancy slipped to that rate. Based on Radix forecast, U.S. occupancy is expected to be 94.2% a year from now due to sustained job growth and declining supply.Annual effective rent growth remained at -0.5% at the national level. It is projected to turnpositive by early 2025 and end next year just above 3%. Roughly one-third of the 45 marketspublished by Radix already have rent growth near that range.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.Jobs Report Much Stronger Than ExpectationsThe U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS), which was roughly 100,000 more jobs than expected. Additionally, the preliminary results for July and August were revised upward by a combined 72,000 jobs, suggesting the labor market remains strong. Job growth is one of the most important factors to multifamily demand because it helps spur new household formation. Combined with declining supply levels in many locations, multifamily fundamentals are trending in the right direction for more balanced operational results in 2025. While the numbers released last week are favorable, recent labor market reports have faced much criticism related to their accuracy due to repeated downward revisions in subsequent publications. That said, current multifamily rent growth and occupancy rates suggest supply and demand have found equilibrium in many markets.  Wages are Up and Unemployment is DownThe BLS also reported average annual wage growth in the U.S. increased to 4.0% in September. It had decelerated to 3.6% in July before increasing the past two months. Based on Radix data, the last time national rent growth exceeded wage growth was in September 2022. The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.1%. The trend suggested many people impacted by layoffs have been able to find new work, but hiring remained very concentrated in just a handful of industries. Approximately 73% of new jobs created in September were in healthcare, social assistance, government, construction, restaurants, and bars. Job seekers in other industries likely feel like the labor market is weaker than headline reports. Goldman Sachs Lowers the Probability of a RecessionAccording to a report by CNBC, Goldman Sachs has lowered the chance of a near-term recession to 15%. To put it into perspective, that number is considered the baseline probability for any “normal” period. Last week's strong labor market report was noted as one of the factors playing a role in the optimistic outlook. Other positive economic news during the last month included lower growth in inflation, better-than-expected consumer spending, and the Fed lowering interest rates. Multifamily HighlightsOperational performance in the first week of October showed no material differences than prior weeks, outside of typical seasonal slowing. Traffic and occupancy rates remained down from last year, but the week-to-week changes were minor. Annual rent growth remained negative at -0.5% at the U.S. level. Steady job growth should result in a typical fourth quarter for performance for multifamily, especially in markets where supply is slowing. If that happens, more markets will show positive rent growth and improved occupancy rates in 2025.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.Fed Chair Jerome Powell Gives Positive OutlookSpeaking to attendees at the National Association of Business Economics annual meeting, the Fed's leader provided an optimistic view of current economic conditions. While acknowledging that the labor market has cooled from an unsustainable pace, Powell also noted a relatively low unemployment rate and a high labor force participation rate for prime-age workers. He stated that the Fed does not need to see further cooling in the labor market, which is likely a good sign for future interest rate cuts. Overall, he described the economy as being in “solid shape” as we head into the fourth quarter. Inflation Continues to Head in Right DirectionThe personal consumption expenditures index (PCE), the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, showed prices were up 2.2% in August. It was down from 2.5% in July and trending closer to the Fed's target rate of 2.0%. It was another favorable report released about the economy in line with a soft landing. In recent weeks, initial unemployment insurance claims have trended lower, consumer spending increased, and the latest GDP estimate was stronger than expected.  New Jobs Report on FridayThe Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its monthly U.S. jobs report on Friday. Consensus expectations are currently close to 150,000 jobs added for September, similar to August's total. The unemployment rate is likely to have a slight uptick from the prior month. Two of the main themes that have persisted in recent reports have been downward revisions to prior job growth estimates, as well as lack of employment growth in the private sector.  U.S. Multifamily PerformanceRecent notable trends for rent growth and traffic continued in the latest Radix report. As of last week, effective rents were down 0.5% from the prior year, but the rate has incrementally improved from an operator's perspective in the past several weeks. Houston became the latest major market to post positive annual rent growth, just as supply is poised to decline significantly in the market next year.Traffic, the number of new leases signed, and the occupancy rate for the U.S. all ticked down due to seasonality. The latest week's traffic count per property in the U.S. was the lowest since the initial onset of the pandemic. The average occupancy rate for the U.S. is still at 93.7%, but the lower traffic counts are especially concerning for markets or properties with high vacancy rates heading into the fall and winter seasons.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.The Fed Cuts Interest RatesIt happened much later in the year than many economists anticipated, but the federal funds ratewas finally lowered last week. At the beginning of the year, it was widely speculated that interest rates would be cut at least once by early summer, but it took until mid-September. The 50-basis point decrease put the benchmark rate in the current range of 4.75% to 5.00%. The latest expectations by voting members show interest rates could be cut an additional 50 basis points by the end of this year, and another 100 basis points by the end of 2025. It is believed interest rate cuts will help stabilize the job market which happens to be one of the biggest drivers of multifamily performance.  Layoffs Down from MidsummerUnemployment insurance claims have gradually decelerated based on data from the Department of Labor. Last week's report showed 219,000 initial claims for the week ending September 14. It was the lowest weekly total since May 18, and it was down from a recent high of 250,000 claimsin July.Initial claims represent the first week a worker files for unemployment, and analysts reference it as a more up-to-date proxy for layoffs. The recent trends are a positive indicator for the labor market, and they do not suggest a surprise is in store for next week's national jobs report from the BLS. Other Economic NotesAccording to Freddie Mac, the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined to 6.09% last week. This year's peak rate was 7.22% in May. The Commerce Department reported that retail sales increased 2.1% on an annual basis in August, outperforming economists' expectations. The trend suggests consumers do not fear a recession on the near-term horizon. U.S. Multifamily PerformanceTraffic declined 6.3 tours per property at the U.S. level, the lowest since January 2022. While some markets are on par with last year's pace, practically all operators we have talked to in recent months have experienced more moderate traffic this year. Despite the slower traffic in 2024, occupancy rates have been stable at just below 94% all year.Annual rent growth remains negative at the national level, but it has improved incrementally to the current pace of -0.6%. More than half of U.S. markets are now registering positive year-over-year rent growth, many in a range of 2% to 4%. Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website 

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.CPI at Lowest Growth Rate in More than Three YearsThe consumer price index (CPI) grew by 2.5% on an annual basis in August 2024. It was down from 2.9% the prior month, and it was the metric's lowest annual growth rate since February 2021. Prices for gasoline and used cars dropped the most from a year ago, both were down more than 10%. The more moderate inflation numbers suggest consumers should have more purchasing power. According to BLS data, wages are growing faster than the price of goods and services. Real wage growth, which is the gap between the growth in earnings and consumer prices, registered 1.3% on an annual basis in August. Delinquency Rates Rise for Credit Cards and Auto LoansDespite the positive trend for real wage growth, many consumers are still struggling to keep up with monthly payments on bills. Credit card delinquency rates have increased from 4.1% at the end of 2021 to almost 9.1% as of Q2 2024. Auto loan delinquency increased from 5.0% to 8.0% during the same period.The increase in interest rates is one of the reasons for the change. According to data from the Fed, credit card interest rates increased from approximately 15% in 2019 to 21.5% this year. Interest Rates are Set to DeclineInvestors and consumers are anticipating the Fed's announcement on interest rates this week. Many investors are anticipating a 50-basis point reduction in the federal funds rate becauseinflation has eased and there are concerns the labor market has cooled more than expected. According to data from Freddie Mac, the average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed-rate loan has already dropped considerably prior to changes in the federal funds rate. As of last week, the 30-year mortgage rate averaged 6.2%, down from almost 7.2% in April. The last time it was that low was in February 2023. Occupancy Rates Trending Up in Many MarketsThe U.S. occupancy rate registered 93.8% last week, down 24 basis points from the same week last year. At a more granular level, many markets are showing year-over-year improvements in their occupancy rate. As of the latest week, 18 markets had an occupancy rate above last year's level, and three more had flat growth. Markets with positive annual occupancy rate changes averaged net effective rent growth of 1.9% during the past year. Markets with occupancy rates below the prior year's levellowered rents by an average of 1.0%.As supply levels subside, more markets should see an uptick in annual occupancy rate growth ifdemand holds.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website 

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.Another Moderate Jobs ReportAccording to last week's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. labor market added 142,000 jobs in August 2024. While that number is in a decent, sustainable range, the two priormonths' totals were revised down by a combined 86,000 jobs. It was another signal that the labor market has cooled more than previously reported. Still, the number of jobs created seems to be enough for many markets to stabilize multifamily rents and occupancy rates. It is widely believed the latest labor market report further supports an imminent interest rate cut by the Fed.  Unemployment Rate Declines SlightlyThe unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in August 2024. While it was a slight improvement from July, there were approximately 800,000 more people unemployed in August than a year ago.While the overall unemployment rate increased from 3.8% a year ago, some types of jobs remain in high demand. Architecture and engineering occupations had an unemployment rate of just 1.7%, down from 2.6% the prior year. Jobs in the legal industry, as well as some jobs in healthcare, still registered unemployment rates below 2.0%. Healthcare and Construction Industries Led Job Creation in AugustJob gains continued to be concentrated in just a few industries based on last week's report. Healthcare and social assistance, which has dominated job creation the last year-plus, added 44,000 jobs in August. Construction added 34,000 jobs, and most of them were either in heavy and civil engineering or nonresidential specialty trade contracting. Employment in manufacturing declined 24,000 from the prior month, and other recent reports have indicated a decline in consumer demand for manufactured goods, a concerning sign for the economy. Multifamily Results Stable Despite Cooling Job MarketWhile recent labor market reports have been less than spectacular, it does appear multifamily performance is stabilizing in many markets. As supply has started to slow in many parts of the U.S., there has been enough job creation for occupancy rates to maintain close to 94% and more markets are seeing positive year-over-year rent growth. Of course, there are still certain markets and submarkets that have a longer path to recovery.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.U.S. Economy Stronger than Initially ReportedGDP for the second quarter was revised upward last week by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The initial report of 2.8% was already stronger than economists expected, and last week's new estimate of 3.0% suggests the economy is still in good shape despite a cooling labor market.The stronger growth was boosted by consumer spending, but there were downward revisions to other components such as business investment.  Latest Inflation Reading Supports Interest Rate CutThe personal consumptions expenditures price index (PCE) increased 2.5% from a year ago in July, or 2.6% excluding food and energy prices (core). Both rates were equal to June's growth.The core PCE growth is the Fed's preferred measure of long-run inflation, and it is widely believed the reading further supports an interest rate cut later this month. It is believed lower interest rates would give a boost to the labor market, which would ultimately benefit the multifamily performance.  BLS Releases 10-Year Employment ProjectionsJob growth is forecasted to be more moderate the next decade based on a forecast released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) last week. From 2023 to 2033, U.S. employment is projected to increase by 6.7 million jobs, or an average of 0.4% per year. For comparison, annual average job growth was 1.3% from 2013-2023 even with the disruption from the pandemic.Job creation will be constrained due to weaker growth in the labor force as more people in the baby boomer generation retire. Job growth is one of the strongest demand drivers for multifamily, and the projected slowdown will almost certainly impact the number of renter households created.Healthcare and social assistance is projected as the top industry for hiring. Given the demands ofan aging population, nurse practitioners and physician assistants will have some of the largest job growth. Computer tech occupations are expected to have the second highest growth, driven by jobs in AI, cyber security, and computer services. Annual Rent Growth Turns Positive for More MarketsMultifamily performance was consistent with recent reports. Rent growth took another small step towards nationwide stabilization. Effective rents were down just 0.8% from the prior year, and several markets were on the cusp of positive rent growth territory. Traffic remained off pace from last year's level, but the U.S. occupancy rate was just under 93.9% at the beginning of September.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.Fed Gives Strong Indication of Interest Rate CutIn a speech last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said, “The time has come for policy to adjust.” The comment was in relation to an anticipated cut in the benchmark interest rate due to signs the labor market has cooled, and inflation measures have showed sustained downward pressure.Higher interest rates have impacted the ability for consumers to purchase a home, which also has a ripple effect on the growth of other businesses, such as those like Home Depot. Additionally, the Fed reports the average interest rate for credit card accounts that assessed interest was 22.8% in May 2024 compared to 16.3% in May 2021.The move to lower interest rates could also give a boost to multifamily transaction volumes, which have been significantly impacted by higher interest rates and lack of clarity on timing, direction, and magnitude of upcoming changes. Radix Acquires redIQ's Underwriting PlatformJust as multifamily transaction volume is likely to experience an upswing, Radix has acquired leading software for end-to-end underwriting, investment modeling, and forecasting returns.Along with Radix's operational benchmarks and research data, the combined products will create complete lifecycle insights from pre-investment to divestment.Read the official press release here. Consumer Confidence Jumps to Six-month HighAccording to The Conference Board, its index for consumer confidence registered the highest mark since February. While improved, consumers have mixed feelings about a variety of issues with so many factors in the economic and political headlines.In aggregate, they were more upbeat on current business conditions, but simultaneously concerned about the labor market with the recent uptick in the unemployment rate. Note, overall consumer confidence remains below the levels for the three years before the pandemic. Annual Rent Growth Turns Positive for More MarketsThe U.S. multifamily industry continued to inch closer to broad-based stability in late-August. One year ago, only 10 of 45 markets had positive annual effective rent growth. Last week, 24 markets achieved that status. Even within most of the 21 markets that still show negative year-over-year growth, there are pockets of optimism.In case you missed it, check out last week's webinar and the associated slide deck that cover our outlook for multifamily performance. It also gives breakdowns of many U.S. markets and submarkets.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.Moderating Inflation Supports Potential Fed Rate CutThe consumer price index (CPI), a key measure of inflation, slowed to its lowest annual growth since March 2021. July's CPI growth of 2.9% was down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Earlier in the month the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported wages grew 3.6% during the same period, and the combined numbers suggest pressure is easing on consumers. The lower CPI alsosupports optimism for an upcoming interest rate cut by the Fed. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Increased in JulySales at U.S. retailers grew by 1% from the prior month, which is important considering that consumer spending makes up approximately two-thirds of the U.S. economy. The increase was roughly three times higher than what economists had expected. The improvement was well received by analysts. According to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs lowered its chance of a U.S. recession this year from 25% to 20% after the report of strong retail sales and lower jobless claims were announced late last week. Multifamily Permitting Levels Decline, AgainFor June 2024, the latest reported figures, there were 451,502 multifamily units permitted in the U.S. on a trailing 12-month basis. That was down slightly from the prior month's total of close to 455,000 units, and it marked the 20th time in the last 23 months that it has declined. From a year ago, multifamily permitting is down 23% at the national level. San Antonio's 12-month total of 2,751 multifamily units permitted was down 80% from the prior year's level. Oakland, West Palm Beach, and Portland each had multifamily permitting levels down more than 65%. Atlanta, Jacksonville, and Houston experienced declines of close to 50%.Most markets will see more moderate supply deliveries next year, which should help performance metrics return closer to long-term averages. One market bucking the trend is San Diego. While other markets are seeing significant drops in activity, its multifamily permitting levels have increased significantly. There were 8,804 units permitted in the last 12 months, double the prior year's level.Multifamily Performance While still negative, U.S. annual rent growth inched its way closer to flat with a -1.2% readingfor the latest week. Only a few markets, like Austin, still show a severe imbalance of supply and demand. Most others are displaying some form of stabilization for rents and occupancy rates, at least for certain submarkets or quality of assets.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.Mortgage Rates DeclineAccording to last week's data from Freddie Mac, the average rate for a 30-year mortgage hit its lowest level in more than a year. It dipped to 6.47% as of August 8, down from a peak of 7.79% in October 2023. Even with the decline, affordability remains a major challenge in the single-family home industry. It has been almost two years since the average 30-year mortgage rate was below 6.0%. Key Economic Data This WeekThis will be a busy week for economics readings, and the following reports are highly anticipated after the unimpressive jobs report from a couple weeks ago. The producer and consumer price indexes for July will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They are key indicators related to inflation and most economists are hopeful they will trend in a direction that gives the Fed confidence to lower the benchmark interest rate at some point soon. The Commerce Department will report on the latest trends for retail sales which will shed light on consumer spending. Also, the University of Michigan's preliminary report on August's Consumer Sentiment Index will give us a view on how people feel about all the recent headlines in the economic and political worlds.Unemployment insurance claims, metro-level job growth, and the number of buildings permitted for construction are among other metrics being released this week.  EQR Purchases 11 Assets from BlackstoneAnother large apartment acquisition was announced last week. Equity Residential (EQR) stated that it has agreed to purchase 11 assets from Blackstone for close to $1 billion. The assets are in the markets of Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Denver. On average, the properties are eight years old.  Multifamily Performance Apartment performance remained steady through mid-August. Rents are still below last year's level in many MSAs, but the most turbulent times are likely behind a lot of markets at this point. The national occupancy rate has held close to 93.9% the entire year, and the U.S. is on track to absorb more than half a million units in 2024. As long as the economy holds, many areas are poised for growth rates closer to historical norms in 2025.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.A softer-than-expected U.S. jobs report last Friday sent shockwaves through the investment world at the beginning of this week. At time of publication, all three major U.S. stock indexes were down more than 2.5% as the selloffs that started in Japan spread to other parts of the globe.The movements followed one of the weakest jobs reports in the past few years, coupled with the Fed's decision to leave interest rates unchanged during last week's FOMC meeting. There is growing speculation that the Fed could make an off-cycle rate cut since the next meeting is not scheduled until September 17-18, but other executives and analysts suggest patience is needed.In terms of the latest jobs report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported the U.S. added 114,000 jobs in the month of July. It was the second lowest monthly total since the end of 2020, and job gains for the previous two months were revised downward by a combined 29,000 jobs. Job growth in the private sector remained very weak.The unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, and wage growth slipped to 3.6%. Both of those numbers are still solid by historical norms, but the concern is more about the direction of the trend, especially for unemployment.Many economists have noted that Hurricane Beryl likely influenced the latest jobs report by a degree, but the BLS reported it had no material impact on the nation's overall results. Individual MSAs in the path of the hurricane, such as Houston, could show a dip in job growth when the metro-level reports are released later this month.Multifamily fundamentals remained steady from the prior week, with some metrics slightly decelerating due to seasonality. Some of the largest tech markets are highlighted in this report for their improved apartment performance. San Francisco, San Jose, and Seattle were impacted significantly by layoffs in early 2023, which weakened demand for housing. Their metrics appear to be normalizing, which should speak to their underlying supply and demand fundamentals. Of course, tech stocks have taken some of the hardest hits in today's developments.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.The U.S. economy grew by 2.8% in the second quarter according to the initial estimate of GDP released last week. Consumer spending drove the strong quarterly growth, and the overall GDP increase was double the rate of growth in Q1. Despite elevated interest rates the economy continues to move forward at a strong clip. Speaking of interest rates, the June Personal Consumption Expenditures Core Index slowed from 3.7% to 2.9% on an annualized basis. As the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the slowing PCE should provide more fodder for the Fed to cut rates in the coming months. The Fed meets this week, and while I doubt rates will be cut at this meeting, they will likely use the opportunity to lay the groundwork for a September cut.Multifamily fundamentals were mostly flat to negative last week at the national level. One metric showing modest improvement however is concessions. This is a welcome sight for operators who have been mired by high concessions for the past two years. As the end of the current supply wave progresses, concession activity will likely normalize to its long-term average. Certain sunbelt markets will maintain high concessions through the rest of this year and into next, but in time, concessions in those markets will also level out. Net effective rent also posted a modest gain last week.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.The mid-year employment numbers by metropolitan area were released last week. Job creation is one of the most impactful demand variables for multifamily because it spurs the formation of new households, helping to boost occupancy rates and absorb supply delivered to the market.While the U.S. headline numbers have been solid, year-to-date job growth has varied significantly by market. In fact, some markets have lost jobs this year based on initial estimates. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Denver, Minneapolis, San Francisco, Portland, and Cincinnati had fewer jobs at the midpoint of 2024 than the beginning of the year. Out of that group, Denver's reported loss of 5,400 jobs during the last six months is the hardest to rationalize since rent levels and occupancy rates have increased during the same period based on Radix data. That result would be hard to accomplish if demand was truly that weak. While San Francisco and Oakland lost 1,600 jobs on a year-to-date basis, that is significantly better than the nearly 14,000 jobs lost in the area during the first half of 2023 when tech layoffs were prominent. Staying in California, Los Angeles showed one of the biggest improvements, adding almost 39,000 jobs during the last six months. For comparison, Los Angeles lost 8,000 jobs during the first half of 2023. New York led the country with 77,000 jobs createdyear-to-date, increasing its employment base by 0.8%. Washington, DC, Houston, Miami, and Philadelphia each added more than 30,000 jobs with approximately 1.0% growth. On a relative basis, Charleston and Raleigh had the strongest job growth rates, each up more than 2.0%.Multifamily fundamentals were mostly steady last week with slight declines in some metrics. The industry is nearing the end of prime leasing season, and performance related to traffic, leases signed, occupancy, and rent should start to decelerate in the weeks and months ahead.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

Jay and Chris are back with another episode of the Radix Review: Multifamily Trends Explained.Jay and Chris return for another episode of the Radix Review. Chris kicks things off, breaking down last week's rent and operating trends, as the key metrics began to soften nationwide. Traffic increased in only 3 markets last week as the prime leasing season has officially wrapped up. Most metrics should plateau for the next few months, so if we see continued weakness that could be a sign for a challenging second half of the year. Jay takes a deep dive into the four main Texas markets, with their strong demand, but heavy construction pipelines leading to mixed results. Houston has emerged as the strongest market in Texas for the first time in a number of years. Houston has been countercyclical at times in its history, and the current balance of supply and demand has it well positioned. The guys share their thoughts on the first interest rate cut, after a weaker than expected CPI report combined with a softening job market has economists chomping at the big for lower rates. Check out the full podcast on Apple and Spotify and leave us a rating and review!Explore our webpage for more insights and resources: Multifamily Data Innovation at Radix: Property Management Solutions

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.Consumer inflation softened in June, drawing more calls for monetary easing from economists and market analysts. The Consumer Price Index fell 10 basis points in June compared to May, marking the first monthly decline in prices since early 2020. The annual inflation rate fell to 3.0%. On the heels of a weaker than expected employment report, the drop in prices has caught the eye of policy makers. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell did not say when rates would be cut, he indicated that a rate reduction is on the horizon. The Fed will meet at the end of this month and then again in September. I expect the Fed will wait until September for its first rate cut of this cycle.Multifamily fundamentals declined across the board last week. Traffic, leasing, occupancy, net effective rent and revenue per available unit all declined on a week-over-week basis. With the spring leasing season behind us, most operating metrics will flatten for the next few weeks. However, if we continue to see growing deterioration in key indicators it may portend a weaker than expected second half of the year.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

Jay and Chris are back with another episode of the Radix Review: Multifamily Trends Explained.As Q3 begins, Chris dives into the recent multifamily trends as key operating metrics have begun to plateau. There are still a few markets outperforming, and Huntsville, AL is awarded the market of the month of June. Strong occupancy and rent growth, combined with the highest leasing activity in the nation has helped Huntsville recover quickly from an oversupply issue. Jay then breaks down the June employment report. Headline job formation was strong, coming in above 200,000 but unemployment is creeping upward and job gains remain concentrated in just a few sectors.Tune in to hear what Jay and Chris think will unfold in the coming months if the employment market continues to soften.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources: Multifamily Data Innovation at Radix: Property Management Solutions

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.The employment market has long been the backbone of the U.S. economy, as strong job gainscoming out of the pandemic fueled significant macro growth. The national unemployment rate fell to the low three percent range, and some metro areas saw unemployment in the two percent range. While we are still adding jobs at a strong clip, unemployment has increased in each of the past three months. At this time last year, the unemployment rate was 3.5%. It is now 4.1%, and while that is still below the rate of full employment by historical standards, it shows that some cracks are beginning to emerge in the job market. Since last Friday's employment report, severaleconomists have been calling for rate cuts, and the potential for a July rate cut is back on the table. I don't think the Fed will lower interest rates this month, however, they could use the meeting to clearly lay the groundwork for a rate cut in September. As anticipated, the multifamily industry was mostly flat last week. July is typically the beginning of the stable period in our sector, and most key metrics will remain flat for the next month or two. Fundamentals will likely decline beginning in the late third and early fourth quarters. Growth may continue in certain markets where demand outpaces supply, and oversupplied markets may see further softening, yet nationwide the apartment industry will be mostly flat.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

Chris and Jay are back to break down the first half of 2024 in multifamily. West coast markets have had a strong start to the year with metros including Reno, Riverside, San Diego, Portland and Seattle cracking the top 5 for many apartment metrics. Detroit and Minneapolis have also been doing well as the midwestern resurgence continues. Jay breaks down the recently released metropolitan level jobs report, with major Gateway markets adding the most jobs on an absolute basis, while smaller markets including Charleston and Boise lead the way from a percentage gain perspective. The guys wrap up this week's show sharing their plans for the fourth of July and looking back on fond memories of past Independence Days. Happy Fourth of July to all our listeners!

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.The economy has stayed mostly unchanged through the first half of 2024, as employment outperformed, and inflation and interest rates have remained elevated. The second half of the year will likely be characterized by a series of “wait and see” situations. When will the Fed cut rates? How many cuts will there be? Will the job market remain hot? What will be the economic impact of the upcoming election? Without any major dark clouds on the horizon, but also no major catalysts for growth, I suspect the second half of the year to be fairly similar to what we've experienced in the economy thus far this year.The multifamily industry is beginning its mid-summer plateau as the leasing season is mostly behind us. Occupancy reached 94% nationwide a few weeks ago, but it was short lived, and with last week's minor decline, the national occupancy rate once again has a 93 handle. Leading indicators have been flat for the past few weeks and will likely stay that way through the summer. Net effective rents continued to grow last week, but rent is a lagging indicator. NER may continue to increase for a few more weeks, and then flatline with the other key performance metrics.For more in-depth analysis on the first half of 2024, be sure to look for our 2024 Mid-year review and Second Half Outlook, which will be published in the next few days.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

Chris and Jay are back with this week's Radix Review: Multifamily Trends Explained. Jay kicks things off recapping the NAA Apartmentalize conference last week. He shares his insights from several client meetings, the tradeshow floor and even a few cheesesteak adventures. Chris breaks down the recent home sale and home price data from the National Association of Realtors. The guys talk about the nuances between the for sale and rental housing market and the need for more housing supply despite the generational new supply levels currently impacting multifamily. Jay shares an update to Radix's product offering as the company will soon make their web scraped data available to clients. Finally Chris wraps up the episode introducing some questions and thoughts on the state of the power grids in the U.S. and how future housing growth will be shaped by infrastructure. Check out this week's show and subscribe to get access to all future episodes when they drop!Learn more about RadixJune 27th 2024

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.Home prices rose to an all-time high in May according to data released by the National Association of Realtors last week. The median home price in the U.S. is $419,300, up more than 55% from its pre-pandemic level. Not only are prices at all time highs, but mortgage rates that have remained around 7% have made homebuying exceedingly difficult for many Americans. As such, existing home sales fell for the third consecutive month. Housing affordability and the undersupply of housing is becoming a growing issue as the election nears. Gen Z voters have voiced that housing affordability is the issue they care most about in the upcoming election, and it will be widely discussed on the campaign trail. Despite the boom in multifamily development, we remain in a housing shortage nationwide. As demand remains elevated, new apartment units will be absorbed, as the debate over housing affordability and development will continue to intensify.The multifamily sector has seen firsthand how supply and demand impact pricing in housing. As supply has increased, rents and occupancy rates have fallen while concessions have increased quickly. The consumer has had the upper hand in many markets, especially in the sunbelt over the past 2 years. We can see the demand for housing very clearly, we just need to counter the demand with more housing supply. All types of housing will be needed to solve the affordability issue. Single family for sale, single family rentals and apartments will all contribute to easing the affordability challenges, and the onus is on local governments and communities to accept, approve and promote development of new housing.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

Jay and Chris are back this week with a special Radix Review podcast. Jay is live in Philadelphia for the NAA Apartmentalize conference. He breaks down what he has seen and heard thus far, and shares what Radix is focusing on for the week ahead. Jay also details the conference schedule and a few key things he's looking forward to in Philly. Jay and Chris share a brief update on overall apartment performance, as the national occupancy rate reached 94% last week. For anyone attending Apartmentalize, we would love to see you at our Booth #2857. If you'd like to schedule a meeting to discuss your markets with Jay, feel free to reach out to marketing@radix.com or jay.denton@radix.com. Finallly, Blerim Zeqiri our CEO will be on a panel focusing on the importance of real time data in the apartment industry on Friday morning. Check it out!Learn more about RadixJune 19th 2024

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.Given the potential for a significant change in economists' expectations heading into last week's releases, the domestic economy has been relatively steady over the past several days. The CPI was released last Wednesday showing a modest decline in inflation. The Fed announced later that day that they expect to cut rates once this year, although that is once again subject to change if inflation or the job market changes drastically. However, the market is taking the Fed's commentary as a positive. Treasury yields are down about 20 basis points since last Monday, and the equity markets have performed well, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.4% in the past week. While some were expecting significant volatility in the economy, last week's numbers and commentary were mostly stabilizing.Multifamily continues its steady journey, but last week marked a significant milestone, as the national occupancy rate returned to 94%. While this threshold by no means marks the immediate return to growth for all multifamily markets, it meaningfully represents the stable growth in housing demand. Leading indicators were once again flat last week, and rent growth continued its slow march upward, as the national average net effective rent increased another 10 basis points.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

Jay and Chris are back this week talking mostly about the economic factors that drive multifamily performance and transaction activity. Chris starts things off with a high level overview of recent multifamily trends before Jay dives deep into last week's jobs report. The May numbers were stellar again, which provides continued demand and support for multifamily. Chris then breaks down the recent CPI report as well as the recent Fed meeting and Jerome Powell's commentary. Interest rates stayed flat again, but Powell shed light on the expectation for one rate cut this year, and potentially four rate cuts in both 2025 and 2026. Since summer is in full swing and we were talking jobs, the guys wrap up this week's podcast talking about their most memorable summer jobs as kids. Check out this week's podcast and subscribe to get our weekly podcast on apple and spotify.Learn more about RadixJune 6th 2024

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.It will be a big week for inflation and monetary policy, as the May CPI report comes out on Wednesday. Later that day, the Fed will conclude its June policy meeting with Chair Powell giving a press conference to discuss the current state of the economy and interest rates. There is very little chance of an interest rate cut this week, but Powell's commentary combined with the Fed's dot plot, which shows how each voting member feels on interest rates, inflation and other key metrics, should shine light on when we may see the first cut. Market sentiment will be reflected in the movement of treasury yields later in the week. Strong inflation will likely weaken the chances of 2024 rate cuts, and send treasury yields upward.Multifamily fundamentals were mixed last week as the leading indicators were flat or declined slightly, while rent and occupancy increased modestly. Traffic and leasing have likely peaked for the year, and I'll be focused on how far these metrics drop over the next six months as a measure of continued demand for multifamily. Rent and occupancy will rise for the next few months and then begin their decline for the remainder of the year.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

Jay and Chris are back to cover the recently released May data across the multifamily sector. They launch a new segment called the Market of the Month, and the first market to receive the honor is Wilmington, NC. Wilmington had a great May, adding nearly 60 basis points of occupancy and seeing rent growth of 1.5%. Each month Chris and Jay will break down the markets and share their views on the best performing market. They also dive into some economic indicators showing signs of softening. GDP, manufacturing, job growth and the ten-year treasury are all showing early warning signs as we move into the summer. Finally they preview the upcoming NBA finals, not from a basketball perspective, but in terms of the multifamily markets in Boston and Dallas. Tune in to hear who they think will in on the court as well as in the multifamily market moving forward. Learn more about RadixJune 6th 2024

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.The U.S. economy is starting to flash warning signs of a slowdown that many predicted would come sooner. Q2 GDP was revised downward last week to an annualized pace of 1.3%, 30 basis points below the first estimate in April and more than 200 basis points below the pace of growth from Q1. Key manufacturing indicators are also pointing to a slowdown in the U.S. Later this week we will get the May employment report which should give us a good indication of whether the weak report in April was an anomaly, or the beginning of a larger trend. Multifamily indicators were mixed last week, and mostly flat for the month of May. Traffic and leasing have remained unchanged for the past few weeks, and I believe we have seen the peak for both leading indicators this year at the national level. Rent growth and occupancy continue to improve as they dig out from the now two-year slumps. Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website