Academic discipline studying businesses and investments
POPULARITY
Categories
Brittany: We get a call from another ex-Angel! His old guitar player Brittany!Callers: We get some insight from the listeners with praise and questions for Margot.Margot Lane: The aswesome Margot Lane continues with more stories of being a Corey's Angel!BRITTANY!, COREY'S ANGELS!, LOYALTIES!, THE OATH!, A BRIDGE!, COREY FELDMAN VS THE WORLD!, MARCIE HUME!, BRITTANY'S MOM!, DEPRESSED!, POINT FINGERS BACK AT YOURSELF!, CRAZY FOOTAGE!, NEVER ENDING MADNESS!, DETAILS!, MOTHER!, LIGHTHEARTED!, NEGATIVE!, HURTING!, CORBEN NASH!, QUEENIE!, JAGGER!, CREEP!, HOLLYWOOD!, DOCUMENTARY!, Q&A!, CAN'T GO!, MAKE IT WORTH YOUR WHILE!, UNITED!, HIGH PRIESTESS!, ZEN!, NOT STUPID!, TRUTH!, PREDATOR FRIEND!, CATHERINE O'HARA!, HE'S NOT YOUR FRIEND!, DEVIL!, SATAN!, VOODOO DOLL!, COREY FELDMAN IMPRESSION!, COURTNEY!, STAY OPEN!, RESPECTFUL!, FINANCIALS!, MONEY!, HAWAII!, SOLO!, UNCLE BUTCHIE! You can find the videos from this episode at our Discord RIGHT HERE!
Rumors continue about Apple coming out with some sort of a foldable iPhone that will be released this year and the follow up designs that will follow. The company released its quarterly results with revenue boosted by incredible iPhone sales. The way you buy a Mac online has changed. Apple has a new visually pleasing way of presenting the options and the Mac you are buying, while making your choices very clear. Brought to you by: Squarespace: Check out squarespace.com/DALRYMPLE for a free trial, and when you're ready to launch, use OFFER CODE: DALRYMPLE to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain. Show Notes: RIP Catherine O'Hara Report: Apple 'exploring' clamshell foldable iPhone as potential follow-up model Apple has changed the way you buy a Mac online The Fallen Apple Why the Q.ai acquisition could be huge for AI and Siri Apple reports first quarter results Shows and movies we're watching Mayor of Kingstown, Paramount+ Tom Scott's "Podcast Express" Second, there's "For The Record, the 70's", Episode 58, WKRP in Cincinnati
Can US financials outperform in 2026 – and where are the most attractive opportunities? Christian DeGrasse, financial sector specialist in Global Banking & Markets, discusses with Chris Hussey on the Goldman Sachs trading floor. This episode was recorded on February 4, 2026. The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html Goldman Sachs does not endorse any candidate or any political party. © 2025 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this follow-up episode, we zoom out and talk about the bigger picture of helping kids move into adulthood without being buried under student debt. Kelly returns to share why college should be treated as a financial decision, not an emotional one — and why choosing a school based on the prettiest campus, best food, or football team can be a costly mistake. We talk about evaluating the return on investment, choosing schools that accept dual enrollment and AP credits, and why her daughter attended a local school that fit the plan. We also discuss alternatives that don't get talked about enough: trade schools, gap years, and going to college part-time while figuring out direction. If a student doesn't know what they want to do yet, pushing them straight into full-time college can lead to major-jumping, dropping out, and still owing loans — which helps no one. Kelly and I also dive into some hard but necessary questions for parents: Do your kids really want to go to college — or do you want them to? And why? We talk about how giving students time, ownership, and even their own money on the line often makes them more motivated to finish. We wrap up with practical advice on starting these conversations early, helping kids build strong resumes, track test scores and activities, and gather references — plus how to connect with Kelly if you want help guiding your own family through this process. This episode is about giving your kids freedom, not financial chains. Related Episodes: 78 - How to Find $10,000 in Scholarship Opportunities in an Hour a Week 172 - 3 Ways to Search and Find the Scholarships Specific To You 173 - She Paid Off $20,000 in Student Loans in a Few Months, Before Ever Paying Any Interest! Learn How You Can Too (: More about Kelly: I'm the owner of Eleven 14 Financials and a certified Ramsey Financial Coach. My passion is to educate, encourage and empower parents and students to take control of their financial future. By being proactive and starting early, they learn to change the direction of how they can attend higher education. By avoiding debt, it sets them up to create a solid financial foundation. Website: www.Eleven14Financials.com Email: eleven14financials@outlook.com FB: www.facebook.com/eleven14finacials IG: @eleven_14_financials P.S. Join me on... Facebook --> Christian College Girl Community ~ Scholarships & Graduate Debt-Free | Facebook Instagram --> @moneyandmentalpeace Email --> info@moneyandmentalpeace.com **Get scholarships and pay for college without student loans!** Are you worried about how to pay for college? Stressed because it's so expensive? Are you having trouble finding scholarships, or all you find don't apply to you? Overwhelmed with all things school and money? Welcome fam! This podcast will help you find and get scholarships, avoid student loans and maybe even graduate college debt-free! Hey! I'm Kara, a Christian entrepreneur, amateur snowboarder, and scholarship BEAST! I figured out how to not only finish college debt-free, but I even had $10k left over in the bank after graduation. (& btw, my parents weren't able to help me financially either!) During school, I was worried about paying for next semester. I couldn't find scholarships that worked specifically for me, and didn't know how to get started while juggling homework and keeping up with ALL.THE.THINGS. But dude, I learned there was a better way! With God's direction, I tested out of classes, and found the perfect scholarships, grants, internships, and weird budget hacks that helped me go from overwhelmed to debt-free with $10k in the bank–all with God on my side. ... and I'm here to walk you through this, too. If you are ready to find scholarships specific to you, learn to manage your money well, and have enough money to kill it at college, this pod is for you! So grab your cold brew and TI-89, and listen in on the most stress-free and debt-free class you've ever attended: this is Money and Mental Peace.
Fixed income investment analyst Sandro Lazzarini joins investment director David Bradin to discuss high-yields, an often overlooked area. Sandro explains how he values companies in transition, and why terminal value and pricing power matter. He also explores the surge in AI-related issuance and the evolving role of private credit. #CapGroupGlobal This content is intended to highlight issues and be of a general nature. It should not be considered advice, an endorsement or a recommendation. Products mentioned are not an offer of the product and may not be available for sale or purchase in all countries. All investments have risk, and you may lose money. Past results are not a guarantee of future results. Statements attributed to an individual represent the opinions of that individual as of the date published and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Capital Group or its affiliates. For our latest insights, practice management ideas and more, subscribe to Capital Ideas at getcapitalideas.com. If you're based outside of the U.S., visit capitalgroup.com for Capital Group insights. Watch our latest podcast, Conversations with Mike Gitlin, on YouTube: https://bit.ly/CG-Gitlin-playlist This content is published by Capital Client Group, Inc., and copyrighted to Capital Group and affiliates, 2026, all rights reserved. For more information, including our detailed disclosures, visit www.capitalgroup.com/global-disclosures. U.K. investors can view a glossary of technical terms here: https://bit.ly/49rdcFq To stay informed, follow us LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/42uSYbm YouTube: https://bit.ly/4bahmD0 Follow Mike Gitlin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikegitlin/ About Capital Group Capital Group was established in 1931 in Los Angeles, California, with the mission to improve people's lives through successful investing. With our clients at the core of everything we do, we offer carefully researched products and services to help them achieve their financial goals. Learn more: capitalgroup.com Join us: capitalgroup.com/about-us/careers.html Copyright ©2026 Capital Group
Paul, Charlie and Mo Egger combine to hit a wide range of Bengals topics. -Intro-Salary cap goes up-Bengals cash vs cap spend-Levers they need to pull more-Too many tabs and loose files-Senior and Pro Bowl thoughts-Mo Egger joins-The Bengals thought he will have watching the Super Bowl-Two signings Cincinnati should emulate-HOF feelings expressed-Paul and Charlie spin the wheel of back-of-the-roster players and offer takes-Bonus important draft topic for the real onesWatch and subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheGrowlerPodcastThe Growler on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-growler/id1733476604The Growler on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/70iJjqgPQrVzQ2pdOwVvDYLinks to socials, Growl Pal shirts, YouTube, podcast platforms and more: www.thegrowlerpodcast.comSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Join XNC Podcast with Hosts @colteastwood & @Middleagegamegy to discuss Xbox is NOT Dead Yet! Microsoft Financials Report | Xbox Magnus Specs Confirmed! Xbox News Cast 238Join the channel to early access: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCyGYHo1qVIeGq3ZLnSDaEcg/joinMerchandise: https://teespring.com/stores/colteastwood-merchFollow: https://twitter.com/ColteastwoodAdd me on Xbox Live: ColteastwoodPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/colteastwood0:00:00 Start0:12:00 Resident Evil Requiem0:24:00 Highguard is done0:35:00 Developing for Xbox vs Playstation 0:42:00 Xbox Financials is CoDs Fault1:00:00 Tomb Raider Update1:10:00 AI Slop1:28:00 Xbox Magnus & PS6 Release2:05:00 Xbox OEM 20262:12:00 YouTube AdviceTopics Covered on the Colteastwood Channel:Microsoft Sony Xbox One Xbox One X Xbox Two Xbox Scarlett Xbox Project Scarlett Xbox 2 Next Generation Consoles Playstation PS4 PS5 Playstation 5 Exclusive Games Console Exclusives xCloud Project xCloud Xbox Game Pass Xbox Game Pass Ultimate Xbox games Playstation Games Xbox Lockhart Xbox Anaconda Danta Xbox Consoles Game Streaming Cloud Streaming Zen 2 Zen 2+ Navi GPU SSD Next Gen Consoles Xbox One S Xbox Live Xbox Live Gold Xbox Rewards Microsoft Rewards E3 E3 2019 E3 2020 X019 Xbox Leaks Rumor News Gears Halo Fable IV Forza Horizon Motorsports Halo Infinite Playstation Now PSNow Phil Spencer Xbox Game Studios Exclusives PS Now PSNow Xbox Series X Xbox Series S Playstation 5 PS5
This week, Doug and Greg Stokes look at the year-over-year shift in market dynamics, from large-cap US stocks to commodities and consumer staples. They also discuss earnings news, particularly involving Microsoft, Meta, and AI spend. And as international stocks and emerging markets have success, they continue to beat the drum for long-term diversification. Key Takeaways [00:17] - Asset class shifts from 2025 to 2026 [04:13] - Predicting if/when the Fed cuts rates [08:03] - What do parabolic commodity prices mean? [09:09] - Big earnings season news from Microsoft and Meta [13:00] - The effect of regulation on Financials [16:26] - International and emerging markets View Transcript Links This Is Not What a Healthy Bull Market Looks Like Microsoft shares dive as data center spending overshadows earnings surge Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.
After a powerful run in metals, renewed inflation pressure, and a shifting Federal Reserve backdrop, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to connect the dots between markets, policy, and positioning. Fresh off being named one of the Top 23 podcasts for financial advisors for the second year in a row, the conversation moves fluidly from gold's breakout and the return of the debasement trade to the growing uncertainty around the next Fed chair and what it means for rates, inflation, and risk assets.They explore why commodities are flashing signals that don't align with disinflation narratives, how productivity optimism collides with fiscal reality, and why global earnings strength continues to support equities even as leadership rotates. Along the way, they unpack the implications of a potential government shutdown, policy-driven margin pressure across sectors, and why markets tend to move past the headline faster than most expect.Key Takeaways: • Gold's message is getting louder: Rising commodity prices, fiscal deficits, and rate pressure are reinforcing the case for metals as portfolio protection • The Fed chair race matters more than headlines: Rick Rieder's emergence highlights the tension between productivity optimism and persistent inflation risks • Inflation remains sticky under the surface: Core services and commodity strength challenge the idea of a smooth glide back to 2% • Global earnings are doing the heavy lifting: Companies with international exposure continue to outpace domestically focused peers • Policy noise doesn't derail trends: Shutdown risks and political uncertainty create volatility, but fundamentals keep asserting themselves—Check the 23 Top Financial Advisor Podcasts To Listen To In 2026:https://kitc.es/4pWNyA9Jump to:0:00 Cold Open, Awards, And Snow Jokes2:35 Gold And Silver Surge Explained8:40 The Debasement Trade And Inflation14:50 Global Central Banks Rotate To Gold19:30 Japan, Yields, Yen, And Risk Assets23:40 The Fed Chair Horse Race Heats Up30:20 Productivity, The 1990s, And Why Today's Different38:20 Fed Path: Holds, Politics, And Gold Tailwinds42:30 January Barometer, Tech Lags, And Breadth48:40 Equal-Weight Tech, Financials, And Policy Risk53:40 Earnings Setup: Mega-Cap vs The 493Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with TG Macro founder Tony Greer to explore why markets are increasingly signaling a loss of faith in institutions and what that means for investors heading into 2026. Tony lays out a framework that connects inflation, central bank credibility, political risk, global regime change, and shifting consumer behavior into a coherent macro narrative. From gold and precious metals to miners, commodities, cyclicals, and the evolving role of AI, this conversation bridges big-picture macro themes with actionable market insights for both traders and long-term investors.Topics covered:• Why gold is rallying as trust in institutions erodes• Central banks, inflation, and the long-term consequences of monetary policy• The shift from a 60-40 portfolio to alternatives and real assets• Precious metals versus technology leadership in a changing market regime• Gold miners, industrial miners, and uranium as core themes• Consumer inflation, food prices, and purchasing power on Main Street• Big Food, Big Pharma, and the broader trust breakdown• Legal, political, and geopolitical risks shaping investor behavior• The end of globalization and the rise of domestic supply chains• Copper, energy, and natural resources in an economic recovery• AI, semiconductors, and signs of a leadership transition• Prediction markets and new tools for understanding market expectations• Financials, airlines, and overlooked cyclical opportunities• How to think about risk management when macro regimes changeTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and the collapse of trust in institutions02:00 Why gold is responding to credibility loss, not fear05:00 Central banks, inflation, and monetary excess08:20 Purchasing power and real-world inflation pressures11:00 Big Food, Big Pharma, and consumer awareness14:00 Healthcare, fraud, and institutional breakdown16:30 Legal system risk and political credibility18:30 Global factors, sanctions, and the shift away from globalization21:00 Precious metals, miners, and natural resource leadership25:00 The three mining themes driving performance29:00 Stocks and gold rising together in a new regime32:00 Gold market structure and long-term trend analysis36:00 Japan, global bond markets, and gold demand39:00 Investing versus trading precious metals43:00 Copper, supply chains, and tech partnerships47:00 AI leadership, capital rotation, and market risk51:00 Financials, airlines, and cyclical signals57:30 What would break the thesis and risk management signals
The financials of your practice are kind of like a patient's labs – they tell you a lot about that practice's health. Knowing your practice's financials as well as a patient's labs makes a lot of sense. My guest today is an owner in a private practice and knows their financials that well. Additionally, she consults with practice owners to help them do the same. She'll help us get started on how you can, too.Katie Nunn, MBA, CMPE, provides training and coaching for healthcare leaders and their organizations on process improvement, financial optimization, and cultural transformation. Leveraging extensive experience with financial and operational turnarounds, she is a valuable advisor for an organization experiencing rapid expansion or change. With over 20 years' experience in healthcare leadership, her broad areas of expertise include practice assessments, process improvement, financial management, IT implementations, telemedicine, strategic planning, providers on-boarding, and cultural transformation.In this episode Carl White and Katie Nunn discuss:Why you don't need an MBA or an accounting degree to know your financials wellThe handful of key financials to know about your practice and what to know about themHow to set up financial reporting to make them as easy to read as lab resultsWant to be a guest on PracticeCare®?Have an experience with a business issue you think others will benefit from? Come on PracticeCare® and tell the world! Here's the link where you can get the process started.Connect with Katie Nunnhttps://www.linkedin.com/company/bright-ideas-medical-consulting/Connect with Carl WhiteWebsite: http://www.marketvisorygroup.comEmail: whitec@marketvisorygroup.comFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketvisorygroupYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD9BLCu_i2ezBj1ktUHVmigLinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/healthcaremktg
It was an honor to welcome David MacNaughton, Strategic Advisor at CIBC and former Canadian Ambassador to the United States. David joined CIBC earlier in January (press release linked here) and will provide insights to senior business leaders across public policy, regulatory developments, global trade, and stakeholder relations. David served as Canada's Ambassador to the U.S. from 2016 to 2019, a pivotal period that included the renegotiation of NAFTA. Earlier in his career, David served as Chairman of StrategyCorp and as a Senior Advisor to CIBC Capital Markets, and he previously served as President of Palantir Canada. He is a seasoned entrepreneur and political strategist, having founded and built multiple public affairs and advisory firms. We were thrilled to host David ahead of CIBC's Annual Institutional Investor Conference taking place this week in Whistler and to hear his perspective on the evolving dynamics shaping the U.S.-Canada relationship. In our conversation, we discuss David's experience spanning business and government, the highly dynamic geopolitical environment, the need for renewed public-private collaboration, and why politics feel increasingly interventionist today, with populist pressure pushing governments toward protectionism and isolationism. We explore the implications of AI-driven white-collar job disruption, why businesses must treat geopolitics and public policy as core risk drivers, Canada's role in AI innovation and adoption, and how Canada is rebalancing its resource economy amid global energy and trade shifts. David shares his perspective on Canada's prior reluctance to embrace LNG exports and its renewed push to be an “energy superpower,” how to interpret volatility from the Trump Administration, and how tariffs have strained, but not broken, the U.S.-Canada relationship, highlighting the importance of the integrated North American energy system and the need for Canada to diversify markets. We discuss how David's Strategic Advisor role will help clients think about using government support appropriately, his cautious optimism on recent geopolitical shifts, and why maintaining dialogue among allies matters, as misinterpretation and retreating into corners can quickly spiral into escalation. It was a broad-based discussion and we're thankful to David for sharing his time and unique insights. Mike Bradley opened the show by noting that the 10-year U.S. bond yield had spiked to ~4.3% amid concerns that Europeans could sell U.S. Treasuries in response to President Trump's Greenland overtures, as well as growing questions about what a spike in Japanese bond yields might mean for global bond yields. Consensus appears firmly in the camp that the Fed will not cut interest rates at the January 28 FOMC meeting. In the broader equity market, the S&P 500 was down modestly (~0.5%) over the last week, with cyclical sectors (Energy and Industrials) leading and Financials lagging. In energy commodities, WTI price appears to have stabilized at ~$60/bbl. U.S. natural gas price recently spiked ~$0.80/MMBtu (to ~$4.00/MMBtu) due to an Arctic blast forecast in the weeks ahead. On the energy news front, Q4 earnings season begins this week with Halliburton and SLB reporting. Discussion on those calls is likely to be dominated by 1H26 international oil spending trends. Mike also noted Mitsubishi Corp's $5.2 billion deal to acquire Aethon Energy, and his expectation for many more deals across the energy value chain in 2026. He ended by highlighting that President Trump, along with a handful of Northeast governors, are asking PJM Interconnection to hold an emergency energy auction that would allow Big Tech companies to bid on 15-year contracts to supply ~$15 billion of new power plants. IPP equities were the most negatively impacted by this proposal late last week.
Have you ever noticed that Temporary Orders often become the long-term orders in a divorce proceeding? Temporary orders can influence the ultimate outcome of a divorce or custody proceeding dramatically. In this episode, Holly Draper will provide a list of very important things to make sure you include in your preparation for and in your appearance at a temporary orders hearing.
Today on the SwimSwam Breakdown, we review the Pro Swim Series in Austin, USA Swimming's financial situation, and the future of the Enhanced Games.
Sam, Asad, and AJ are back to debate the hard numbers shaping the GTM landscape in 2026. The consensus? The freeze is thawing, but the rules have changed. Sam predicts we've entered the "Year of the Deal." Investors are exhausted, founders are tired, and the market is finally ready to clear—even if that means restructuring cap tables to take the win and move on. Asad brings the sobering data on the "Great Concentration," revealing that almost half of venture capital went to a surprisingly small number of companies, while AJ argues that without a compelling AI narrative, traditional SaaS assets will face a brutal valuation ceiling. Chapters: 00:36 Welcome to 2026: Intro and Hosts 02:30 Quiz Pro Quo 08:56 Sam's Prediction: The Year of the Deal 13:53 AI-Native vs. Traditional Investment Trends 16:42 Founder Exhaustion and the Acceptance of Lower Exits 19:40 The VC Perspective on Clearing "Vintage" Funds 24:00 Advice for Seed Founders: Shut Down or Sell? 28:22 Sam's Bearish Take on OpenAI's Financials 31:12 Testing the Stickiness of AI Models 38:03 Asad's Prediction: The Era of Capital Concentration 43:21 Why 2026 Will See Increased Layoffs 46:37 The Confusion of a High-Churn Job Market 50:19 Shoutouts and Personal Reflections
Stock Market Update and 2026 Outlook is here. In this episode of 15 Minutes of Finance, we break down the biggest financial news moving markets right now, then dive into why financial stocks such as banks, insurance, and financial services could be one of the best sector opportunities heading into 2026. We cover how the Federal Reserve, interest rates, inflation, and credit conditions can influence financial company performance and what investors should be watching as the economy transitions into the next phase of the cycle. You will also get a gold and silver update after their strong 2025 run, why we view precious metals as more defensive and risk averse investments, and why it is unlikely we see another year like 2025 across the board. To close it out, we give a practical breakdown of why the Fed remains the most important character in the market, what today's headlines really mean, and where long term investors should stay focused.Subscribe for weekly market updates, investing strategy, retirement planning, and tax smart financial planning.All Information is educational in its intent and distribution! Please do not consider this personal financial advice. We believe all clients have unique situations and thus require unique advice.
Patrick Kennedy offers his outlook for 2026. He emphasizes the need for a broadening market beyond big tech. He discusses the secondary impact of A.I. on sectors such as financials and healthcare, highlighting the potential for increased profitability and M&A activity. Kennedy also explains his continued bullish stance on gold, citing central bank purchasing and geopolitical and inflation risks.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
The tech sector is not the only market driver in 2026. Edison Byzyka notes that while the A.I. boom will continue, investors should consider broadening their portfolios. Financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials all offer opportunities as earnings expectations improve. He also emphasizes risk management and asset allocation in the first half of 2026, pointing to historical volatility during midterm election years.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Growth could see a surprise to the upside in 2026, according to Eddie Ghabour. He adds that falling energy prices offer a tailwind for small cap companies and U.S. consumers. President Trump "committed to getting housing back" is another reason Eddie sees a lift coming to stocks with Americans poised to earn more purchasing power. That said, Eddie is underweight tech due to those stocks needing to pass a high bar. "AI trends get tried," says Eddie, noting a tech correction is in the cards. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
John Kosar walks through the Asbury 6, a way of measuring markets. Four of the indicators are green, while two are red. He examines inflows into S&P 500 sectors to tell where money is moving in markets: the top three sectors are Healthcare, Industrials, and Financials. “This has been a really interesting market,” John says, pointing out crosscurrents and breaking down the Mag 7's recent performance. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Vance Howard expects 2026 to be a good year, saying the odds of being down are “very minimal.” The market is “too strong” to worry much about the headlines around Fed Chair Powell, he says, but highlights a dovish new Fed Chair in May. He expects two rate cuts this year. Vance anticipates a lot of opportunities for investors across sectors as the market broadens. His picks now include Nova (NVMI), the financial sector ETF (XLF), and the materials sector ETF (XLB).======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
In this week's episode, Ian and Kevin discuss how metals and mining are off to a good start this year, the Russell 2000 with a nice setup again, international equities, areas of Financials that are performing well, a mixed bag from semiconductors, and crypto miners.
After a volatile first half and another year of strong headline returns, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, step back to assess what actually shaped markets in 2025 and what that foundation means heading into 2026.They revisit why early-year turbulence caught so many investors off guard, how companies navigated tariffs and margin pressure more effectively than expected, and why earnings growth remained the quiet backbone of the rally. The conversation then turns forward, covering their 2026 outlook for stocks and bonds, the role of AI-driven capital spending, global market leadership, and why sentiment continues to lag reality even as breadth improves. Along the way, they discuss inflation stickiness, labor market crosscurrents, policy tailwinds, and where diversification still matters most as the cycle matures.Key Takeaways: • Earnings did the heavy lifting: Profit growth and margin resilience, not valuation expansion, powered market gains • Volatility followed the script: Early-year drawdowns fit historical patterns despite widespread surprise • Global leadership expanded: International markets and cyclicals outpaced expectations as breadth improved • AI spending surged: Capital expenditures accelerated across major tech platforms, reinforcing long-term growth trends • 2026 outlook remains constructive: Above-average equity returns and modest bond gains hinge on steady growth without recessionJump to:0:00 — Setting The Stage For 20251:48 — Tariffs, Liberation Day, And Market Bottom4:30 — Sentiment, Concentration Myths, And Breadth9:45 — Speculation Falls, AI Leaders Repriced14:45 — Small Caps, Transports, And Rate Cuts22:30 — IPO Drought, Private Markets, And Valuations27:20 — Media Moments, Gold, And Diversifiers32:20 — Fed Cuts, Dots, And Labor Revisions40:10 — 2026 Playbook: Mid Caps, Financials, Healthcare46:30 — Global Vs. U.S., EM Tilt, And PolicyConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
The trading day doesn't start when the opening bell rings. In this inaugural episode of 2026, Mark Longo is joined by a powerhouse panel to dissect a wild 2025 and forecast the trends shaping the European derivatives landscape in the year ahead. Inside This Episode: 2025 Retrospective: Why European financials and defense sectors outperformed the US mega-cap tech narrative. The Defense Boom: A look at the unprecedented returns in European defense indices (some up nearly 100%) and whether the momentum can survive potential geopolitical shifts. Banking on Europe: Why the STOXX Europe 600 Banks index returned a staggering 76% in 2025 and how the diversification of European mega-caps offers a unique play compared to US financials. Volatility Outlook: Russell Rhoads breaks down the VIX vs. VSTOXX and explains why the US remains the primary source of global "anticipatory" volatility. New Product Alert: Sophie Granchi (Eurex) discusses the shift toward Industry Futures and the demand for thematic trading in a de-globalizing world. The Red Phone: Listener Q&A The panel answers your burning questions on: Relative Value Trades: How to play the narrow calendar spreads in VSTOXX vs. the wider spreads in VIX. Institutional Rotation: Is the heavy volume in European Bank futures a "higher for longer" play or a flight from US markets? The Divergence Myth: Is the gap between the S&P 500 and STOXX cyclical or a permanent shift in global equity performance? Featured Guests: Mark Longo: Founder & CEO, The Options Insider Media Group Russell Rhoads: Kelly School of Business, Indiana University (a.k.a. Dr. VSTOXX) Sophie Granchi Head of Equity & Index Sales (EMEA), Eurex Arun Singhal: Global Head of Index Product Management, STOXX
Carl Quintanilla, Sara Eisen, & David Faber kicked off the hour with some reasons to be optimistic about markets and growth into 2026 - before breaking down the bear case with Cantor Fitzgerald's Chief Equity Strategist who's warning of a drawdown ahead. Plus: what comes next in Venezuela as the President says the U.S. could reimburse energy companies to rebuild there... with one expert who says that's no easy task - and UBS's top picks within the financials as the group kicks off 2026 with a big rally to fresh all-time highs. Also in focus: the state of the AI race and how demand is holding up - with the CEO of AMD, who sat down with the team for a wide-ranging interview, live from one of tech's biggest conferences of the year. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
For years, business owners have been told to follow a familiar playbook when it comes to hiring: Take your time. Be selective. Hire slow, fire fast. But more and more owners are discovering that those rules don't fit the reality they're facing right now. This week, William Vanderbloemen says employers can no longer indulge the luxury of hiring slow. “The shortest sermon I've got,” says the former pastor, “is candidates are more fickle than ever, and owners need to realize that.” Paul Downs says he's trying to figure out what's gone wrong with his hiring process: Is it the way he uses Indeed? The way he approaches candidates? Or the differences between hiring white-collar and blue-collar employees? Jaci Russo believes companies should always be marketing their brand as an employer and always be on the lookout for good people—even when they're not actively hiring. Plus, in a wide-ranging, end-of-year discussion recorded in December, the three owners talk about whether they hit their numbers in 2025, whether they use a formal budgeting process, what they expect in the year ahead, and how far out they can realistically see when they try to plan for the future.
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses key catalysts that investors may be missing, but that are likely to boost U.S. equities in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the converging market forces bolstering our bullish outlook for 2026. It's Monday, January 5th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. The New Year is usually a time to look forward. But today, I want to take a step back and talk about what the market is missing. A series of bullish catalysts are lining up at the same time, and the market is still underestimating their collective impact. There's been a lot of focus on individual positives—solid earnings growth, further Fed easing—but in our view, the real story is how these forces are reinforcing one another. Deregulation, positive operating leverage, accommodative monetary policy, and increasingly supportive fiscal policy are all working in the same direction. And as we head into mid-term elections later this year, these policy levers are likely to stay supportive.Importantly, this isn't a market that's already priced for the outcomes I envision. Positioning in cyclical trades remains relatively light, and sentiment in economically sensitive areas is far from exuberant. That combination—of improving fundamentals with cautious positioning—is exactly what tends to characterize the early stages of a recovery. I continue to believe these tailwinds are most underappreciated in cyclical areas like Consumer Discretionary Goods, Financials, Industrials, and small- and mid-cap stocks. Many of the indicators we track are only just beginning to turn higher. This doesn't look late-cycle to me—it looks early in what I have deemed to be a rolling recovery. One reason investors have been hesitant is the sluggishness of traditional business-cycle indicators, particularly the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. There's been a reluctance to press cyclical trades until those gauges clearly re-accelerate; and beneath that hesitation is a lingering anxiety that the U.S. economy could even slip back into a growth scare. My view is different. I believe a three year rolling recession ended with Liberation Day. If that's true, then the moderate softness we're now witnessing in lagging labor data is constructive for equities because it keeps the Fed leaning dovish for longer and more aggressive—a positive for equities. I see the second half of 2025 as the bottoming process for key macro indicators; with 2026 shaping up as a year of re-acceleration. Longer-cycle analysis supports this. Specifically, the 45-month cycle of the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index points to a rebound. That recovery has been delayed—but not cancelled. Another tailwind that doesn't get nearly enough attention is energy prices. Gasoline prices in particular are sitting near five-year lows, which is providing real economic relief for lower- and middle-income consumers. That cushion matters, especially as other parts of the economy firm. This past weekend's events in Venezuela argue for lower oil prices for longer. From a sector standpoint, Financials stand out as the key beneficiary of deregulation and these stocks have been great performers over the past year in anticipation of these changes. I think there is more to go in 2026. Housing could be another important piece of the recovery. Subdued wage growth and falling rents may pressure home prices, while some builders are prioritizing volume over margins. While that may cap profitability for the builders, it could unlock housing velocity and feed into a more dovish inflation backdrop. Of course, there are also risks. Liquidity has been our top concern since September, and markets have reflected that through weakness in speculative assets. The good news is that the Fed has responded by ending quantitative tightening early and restarting asset purchases through the Reserve Management Program. This effectively adds liquidity to a system that was showing signs of stress this past several months. Another risk is a renewed slowdown in AI CapEx, particularly as markets demand clearer payback from debt-funded spending. And geopolitically, the U.S. intervention in Venezuela raises new questions. Strategically, it reinforces U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere and supports our ‘Run It Hot' thesis—but the key wildcard remains whether China chooses to react. Net-net, we think the balance of risks and rewards still favor leaning into this early-cycle recovery and our bullish outlook for US equities in 2026. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!
Scott Ladner lays out his big picture themes for 2026, arguing for small and mid cap financials will rise on the back of deregulation. He also likes electricity and utilities that support AI infrastructure. He believes AI will create jobs but says speed and timing could create “confusion” within the job market. He argues that the U.S.'s moves around Venezuela are “irrelevant” to the market narrative. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
When new people find the Nutritional Therapy and Wellness Podcast, they ask, "Where do I start?" While we'd love for you to go back to the beginning and take them all in, this is for those who need a quick catch-up. We're doing a Rapid Replay Series of condensed episodes, including the most popular episodes according to streams and downloads, as well as a few of our team's personal favorites. This episode is a condensed version of Episode 004: Bioindividuality - A Freedom You've Never Known. (Click HERE for the full, original version instead.) In this episode, host Jamie Belz, FNTP, MHC, explains what "bioindividuality" is and how it entails the understanding, acceptance, and embodiment of the truth. There is no "one-size-fits-all" cookie-cutter approach to health and well-being. Each person is unique and, accordingly, in their approach to and pursuit of optimal wellness. Jamie then walks you through: 1.) Finding a trusted health liaison 2.) Doing a personal audit/health audit using the prompts (below) 3.) Setting goals 4.) Making an action plan/determining action steps 5.) Documenting what you're doing and tracking your findings This episode offers an alternative approach to traditional "New Year's resolutions" and the endless pit of programs, packages, and purchases you can make in pursuit of your wellness goals. This is so simple, it sounds complicated. Don't let it be! Grab a pen and paper, hit PLAY, and get started. _______________ Your Personal Health Inventory / Health Audit (Listen to the audio first) Areas of Consideration Prompts Health Physical Mental/Emotional Spiritual Relationships Spouse/Significant Other/Life Partner Children Parents Siblings Extended Family Friends Neighbors Coworkers/Colleagues/Professional Associates Children's Networks (Teachers, Coaches, Friends' Parents) Environment Home Clean-Tidy Clean-Toxic (Mold, Cleaners, Off-Gassing, Wildfires, etc.) Enjoyable Comfortable Safe Lonely Overwhelming Affordable Hard Work Work Neighborhood Community Digital Space Finances Stability Relationship with money Debt Income Assets Retirement Insurance Charitable giving/Generosity Ability to Provide Career As Employee Job - Satisfaction, Enjoyment, Feel Appreciated, Feel Challenged, Income, Stress, Hours, Coworkers, Supervisor, Purpose, Challenge, Longevity, etc. Confidence, Satisfaction, Quality of Life Impact, Financials, Progress, etc. Education Exercise Diet Sleep Stress Sex Time Management Confidence Physically, Intellectually, Life Stage/Progress/Accomplishments, Productively, Relationally, etc. Points of Consideration/Questions (for everything!) What's going well? What's not? How does it impact my energy? Is it draining or energizing? Does this increase or decrease stress? What am I proud of? What do I need more of? Less of? How am I feeling about that? What brings me the most joy? What seems to come naturally? Do I still need some healing in that area? Why do I avoid that? How satisfied am I with my performance on that? Is something too time consuming? What's the ROI on that? What feels unsettled? Where and when do I feel welcome? Appreciated? Loved? Encouraged? What should I be doing? What should I stop doing? Where am I seeing patterns? Why does that prompt negative self-talk? Who is getting the best of me? Worst of me? Why does that subject draw anxiety? When do I feel most inspired? ...now replace the "what" with "WHO" in these. ____________________ Please remember to subscribe, leave a review, and connect with us! We appreciate you!
Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, flies solo for this new episode of Facts vs Feelings, joined by longtime chart-watchers Chris Kimble, former CEO of Kimble Charting Solutions, and Scott Brown, Founder of Brown Technical Insights, for a wide-ranging conversation on what the market is signaling as 2025 comes to a close.They dig into market breadth, sector leadership, financials, commodities, and metals that have gone nowhere for over a decade, along with gold's role, sentiment disconnects, and why certain “boring” areas may be setting up for something much bigger. The discussion blends technical analysis, long-term market history, portfolio construction, and the psychological side of investing, offering context for what could matter most heading into 2026.Chris and Scott are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC.Jump to:0:00 — Opening and guest introductions1:41 — Market surprises and leadership shifts6:05 — Financials, tech, and market breadth12:10 — Gold, metals, and long-term breakouts18:40 — Sentiment, seasonality, and market signals26:10 — China, Fibonacci levels, and global setup34:20 — Research, portfolio construction, and the 2026 outlookConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Scott:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-brown-cmt-22b62891/• X: https://x.com/scottcharts?lang=enConnect with Chris:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-kimble-708b4681/• X: https://x.com/KimbleChartingQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
Original Release Date: November 19, 2025Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why he continues to hold on to an out-of-consensus view of a growth positive 2026, despite near-term risks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today I'll discuss our outlook for 2026 that we published earlier this week. It's Wednesday, Nov 19th at 6:30 am in New York. So, let's get after it. 2026 is a continuation of the story we have been telling for the past year. Looking back to a year ago, our U.S. equity outlook was for a challenging first half, followed by a strong second half. At the time of publication, this was an out of consensus stance. Many expected a strong first half, as President Trump took office for his second term. And then a more challenging second half due to the return of inflation. We based our differentiated view on the notion that policy sequencing in the new Trump administration would intentionally be growth negative to start. We likened the strategy to a new CEO choosing to ‘kitchen sink' the results in an effort to clear the decks for a new growth positive strategy. We thought that transition would come around mid-year. The U.S. economy had much less slack when President Trump took office the second time, compared to the first time he came into office. And this was the main reason we thought it was likely to be sequenced differently. Earnings revisions breadth and other cyclical indicators were also in a phase of deceleration at the end of 2024. In contrast, at the beginning of 2017—when we were out of consensus bullish—earnings revisions breadth and many cyclical gauges were starting to reaccelerate after the manufacturing and commodity downturn of 2015/2016. Looking back on this year, this cadence of policy sequencing did broadly play out—it just happened faster and more dramatically than we expected. Our views on the policy front still appear to be out of consensus. Many industry watchers are questioning whether policies enacted this year will ultimately lead to better growth going forward, especially for the average stock. From our perspective, the policy choices being made are growth positive for 2026 and are largely in line with our ‘run it hot' thesis. There's another factor embedded in our more constructive take. April marked the end of a rolling recession that began three years prior. The final stages were a recession in government thanks to DOGE, a rate of change trough in expectations around AI CapEx growth and trade policy, and a recession in consumer services that is still ongoing. In short, we believe a new bull market and rolling recovery began in April which means it's still early days, and not obvious—especially for many lagging parts of the economy and market. That is the opportunity. The missing ingredient for the typical broadening in stock performance that happens in a new business cycle is rate cuts. Normally, the Fed would have cut rates more in this type of weakening labor market. But due to the imbalances and distortions of the COVID cycle, we think the Fed is later than normal in easing policy, and that has held back the full rotation toward early cycle winners. Ironically, the government shutdown has weakened the economy further, but has also delayed Fed action due to the lack of labor data releases. This is a near-term risk to our bullish 12-month forecasts should delays in the data continue, or lagging labor releases do not corroborate the recent weakness in non-govt-related jobs data. In our view, this type of labor market weakness coupled with the administration's desire to ‘run it hot' means that, ultimately, the Fed is likely to deliver more dovish policy than the market currently expects. It's really just a question of timing. But that is a near-term risk for equity markets and why many stocks have been weaker recently. In short, we believe a new bull market began in April with the end of a rolling recession and bear market. Remember the S&P [500] was down 20 percent and the average S&P stock was down more than 30 percent into April. This narrative remains underappreciated, and we think there is significant upside in earnings over the next year as the recovery broadens and operating leverage returns with better volumes and pricing in many parts of the economy. Our forecasts reflect this upside to earnings which is another reason why many stocks are not as expensive as they appear despite our acknowledgement that some areas of the market may appear somewhat frothy. For the S&P 500, our 12-month target is now 7800 which assumes 17 percent earnings growth next year and a very modest contraction in valuation from today's levels. Our favorite sectors include Financials, Industrials, and Healthcare. We are also upgrading Consumer Discretionary to overweight and prefer Goods over Services for the first time since 2021. Another relative trade we like is Software over Semiconductors given the extreme relative underperformance of that pair and positioning at this point. Finally, we like small caps over large for the first time since March 2021, as the early cycle broadening in earnings combined with a more accommodative Fed provides the backdrop we have been patiently waiting for. We hope you enjoy our detailed report published earlier this week and find it helpful as you navigate a changing marketplace on many levels. Thanks for tuning in. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!
2025 kept investors off balance, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group turned to Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, to make sense of what actually drove the year. They dig into the gap between perception and reality on market breadth, why speculative pockets unraveled even as leadership widened, and how steady rate cuts, shifting Fed signals, and a softer labor backdrop shaped sentiment. Art also brings decades of perspective on small caps, mid caps, financials, healthcare, and the global forces that may matter most as investors position for 2026.Art Hogan, nor B. Riley Wealth Management, are affiliated with CWM, LLC.Key Takeaways:• Market leadership broadened: More sectors and stocks contributed to gains than investors realized• Speculative areas reset: High-risk themes sold off sharply despite broader market strength• Fed signals stayed mixed: Cuts continued while disagreements inside the committee grew• Labor data softened: Slower hiring and revisions added pressure beneath the surface• Cyclicals built momentum: Financials, healthcare, industrials, and global markets carried meaningful strengthJump to:0:00 — Setting the Stage for 20255:20 — Breadth, Sentiment, and Concentration Fears9:30 — Speculative Shakeout and AI Valuations13:45 — Pullbacks, Psychology, and Market Stats17:15 — The Everything Rally in Context20:40 — Small Caps, Transports, and Quality Leadership34:30 — Fed Cuts, Labor Signals, and the 2026 OutlookConnect with Art• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/arthogan/• X: https://x.com/ArthurHoganIIIConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
4 Ways to Get HOA Docs Before You Close
The big things you need to know:First, we are upgrading S&P 500 Health Care to overweight from market weight.Second, we are upgrading S&P 500 Communication Services to overweight from market weight.Third, our other S&P 500 recommendations are unchanged. We remain overweight Financials and Materials, underweight Consumer Discretionary, and market weight all other sectors. Among our market weights, we have a preference for sectors that look attractively valued on our quant analysis (Consumer Staples, Energy, REITs) over those that look expensive (Utilities, Tech, and Industrials) which have been the early beneficiaries of the AI trade.We also close with a quick thought on the biggest macro takeaways from our 4Q25 global analyst outlook survey.
#RHOP #EddieOsefo #WendyOsefo #CynthiaBailey #PeterThomas #RHOA Thank you for your support of this channel
Rancho Mesa's Alyssa Burley and Account Executive of the Surety Department Josh Hill talk about how utilizing reviewed financials can help contractors improve their surety program.Show Notes: Subscribe to Rancho Mesa's Newsletter.Director/Host: Alyssa BurleyGuest: Josh HillProducer/Editor: Megan LockhartMusic: "Home" by JHS Pedals, “Breaking News Intro” by nem0production© Copyright 2025. Rancho Mesa Insurance Services, Inc. All rights reserved.
What's SHE Up To Now Day 2878? Roundup, Financials, Skool, Supersize And Be A Better You! Drop in to get the real scoop--the good, the bad, the ugly, the truth (well my truth anyway). https://facebook.com/beme2thrive #beabetteryouannualchallenge #supersizebusiness #skoolcommunity #supersizeyou #roundup #lessonslearned #wins #nextyearplans #financial
In this enlightening episode, we sit down with Kelly Flowers, owner and financial coach at Eleven 14 Financials. Based out of Clarks Green and serving clients nationwide, Kelly specializes in helping individuals, couples, and professionals manage, keep, and multiply their money. We dive deep into the impact of financial education from childhood, sharing experiences, and understanding what influences our financial decisions. Kelly also discusses her transition from a 30-year nursing career to financial coaching. Tune in to learn practical advice on managing finances, the importance of teaching kids about money, and the keys to financial freedom and fulfilling life goals.If you or someone you know wants to be featured in our next podcast, message us on Facebook!
Avi Pinsky on Making Your Financials Track Client Value Creation, Five Key Business Drivers That Never Appear on Statements, and Why Smart Service Providers Still Struggle With Business Finances (The Price and Value Journey, Episode 155) Smart service providers often run profitable businesses, even very profitable ones, but often do not understand the dynamics and […]
Mike Wilson, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, and Dan Skelly, Senior Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, discuss the outlook for the U.S. stock market in 2026 and the most significant themes for retail investors. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson. Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Daniel Skelly: And I'm Dan Skelly, Senior Investment Strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Mike Wilson: Today we're going to have a conversation about our views on the U.S. stock market in 2026, and what matters most to retail investors in particular. It's Monday, December 8th at 9am in New York. So, let's get after it. Dan, it's great to see you. We always talk about the markets together. I think this is a great opportunity for us to share those thoughts with listeners. Our view coming into this year is still pretty bullish for 2026. We've been bullish on [20]25 as you have, probably for, you know, similar – maybe some slightly different reasons. I think one of our differentiating views is that we do think inflation is still a major risk for individual investors. And institutional investors, quite frankly, which is why stocks have done so much better. A concept, I think you're well aware of. And I think, you know, the risk for retail is that there's going to be; it's going to be volatile. So, point-to-point, we're still bullish as you are. How are you thinking about managing that point-to-point path? And how are you structuring your portfolio as we go into 2026 with a bullish outlook – but understanding that it's not always going to be smooth. Daniel Skelly: So, like you said, we've also shared this view that next year's going to be positive, albeit there's going to be more volatility. And when I think about the two main risks that retail investors are facing today, one of them is definitely inflation. We're seeing that in services. We're seeing that in housing. We've had the labor market shrink over the recent couple of quarters, so who knows if wage inflation pops up again. But there are ways to definitely hedge against that in an equity portfolio. We think, for instance, owning parts of the AI infrastructure cohort is one of the ways of hedging, whether that be in utilities, pipelines, energy infrastructure in general. These are areas that we think are a necessary hedge against inflation risk. And number two are a positive diversifier. And second key point, Mike, just thinking about that diversification comment. Look, we all know that in many ways the Mag 7 – and the technology strength that we've seen this past year – has driven a fairly concentrated market. I think what people, particularly on the individual side, are recognizing less is just how much AI cuts across many other sectors in parts of the market. And again, we think that risk of over concentration is still out there. And we like the idea of thinking of embedding natural diversification into the equity portfolio. Mike Wilson: Yeah. I mean, it's interesting. Inflation, you know, is part of that story too because AI is somewhat disinflationary or deflationary. I think, you know, investing in things that can drive higher productivity even away from AI can mitigate some of that risk in the economic outlook. But if I think about, you know, the Mag 7 dominance, and just this concentrated market risk, which you spoke about. If inflation re-accelerates next year, which, you know, is one of our core views as the economy improves – doesn't that broaden out the opportunity set? And you know, like there's been this idea that, ‘Oh, you have to own these seven stocks and nothing else.' I mean, part of our view for next year is that we think the market's going to broaden out. How are you set up for that broadening out? And how are you thinking about picking stocks and new themes that can work – that maybe people aren't paying attention to right now? Daniel Skelly: Yeah, it's a great point, Mike. And so, on the first topic, we do think there's broadening, and that's a combination of factors. Number one is just the market becoming more convicted about the Fed cutting path, which we've talked about, and the firm's view reaffirms for next year. Number two is starting to see some of the benefits of deregulation, right, which should impact maybe some of the more cyclical sectors out there – Financials, Energy being two of them. Maybe seeing more M&A activity too as a byproduct of deregulation. And that should bode better for mid- and maybe small caps as well as they receive a M&A premia in the valuations. And I know you've talked about small caps recently in your commentary. But last point I'll make Mike, and it comes back to AI. It almost feels like AI is this huge inflationary ramp at first to get to that deflationary nirvana down the road – with productivity. I think one of the key factors we think about, in terms of a bottom-up perspective, which is what we focus on in across the portfolio, is definitely pricing power. Who owns the pricing power and the key data and the key AI adoption outlook in order to absorb all the different tools and technology diffusion we've seen in the last three years. And that's going to play out, Mike, as you well know, across a variety of sectors and themes. So, agreed, we should see broadening for all those varying reasons. Mike Wilson: So, I mean, there are a couple areas I think, where we overlap. Financials…Daniel Skelly: Yep. Mike Wilson: Industrials, Healthcare, some of the themes that I think we both; we share our bullish views. And what do you think those areas are, within those sectors? You think that you have a differentiated view maybe than the consensus being Financials, Industrials, Healthcare? That the market may be missing, which offers more upset? Daniel Skelly: Sure. I'll start with Financials, which has been an overweight call for us for some time, as I know it has for you as well. And I think that kind of cyclical re-acceleration in the economy is one part. I think the Fed cutting is another part. I think deregulation is clearly another driver. Fourth Capital Markets recovery, which we have seen now. We had a little bit of a technical lull with the government shutdown in terms of filings and issuance, but we see all of the pipeline indicators, indicating green lights for next year in terms of recovery. I think the one thing I would argue that I've observed in looking at all of our vast data sets is that despite all these different bullish factors, this still maybe has been a theme or a sector that investors have traded in and out of, right? I don't think I've even seen like a real strong, consistent overweight. So, I think number one, that's an opportunity. And last point is, listen, there's different sub-sector bifurcation going on, as you know, within the industry, whereas money centers and large banks are performing really well. The same is not the case of regionals and alts managers. And there are varying reasons for that. But we would even argue, Mike, there could be catchup trades within the sector next year. Mike Wilson: Yeah, I would agree on that. I mean, the regional over money centers and actually regionals over alt managers, because I mean – I think the Treasury Secretary has talked about this, you know. Trying to get the regulated banking system kind of back in the game may actually be an opportunity to take share back from some of those alt managers, which have actually done quite well. What about on Healthcare? We upgraded that back in the summer. I think you've been constructive on parts of Healthcare, right. Wwhat do you think people are missing there and why could that be a good sector for next year? Daniel Skelly: Yeah. We were definitely, I'll say, earlier than you and wrong. You had really good timing in terms of your Healthcare upgrade last summer. And look, the sector was out of favor for two years. What we think we observed in the kind of July-August period is: First and foremost, I think we got past the point of maximum policy concern and risk. And ironically, we saw some kind of nominal or surface level deal signed with the government around most favored nation pricing. And it was really, not a lot to write home about. It wasn't as egregious as a policy inflection as some had feared. So, I think that was the first key catalyst. Second, we just saw a really good revisions breadth. And I know this is a comment you make a lot in your work. But we saw across big pharma, tools and life science, medical technology, and devices. We saw really good positive earnings revisions coming out of third and even starting the second quarter. Thirdly, I think if you're talking about an M&A in capital markets recovery, you can't not talk about Healthcare. I think that's a space that'll be ripe for deal making. And then just fourth, right? Look, as the market broadens out, and as people are stopping or maybe slowing the crowding and the key leadership, they're going to go again from AI enablers to AI adopters. And we think AI is going to be a vector that cuts across the Healthcare industry in a really positive way. Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean, the efficiencies that are, you know, possible in the Healthcare sector seem immense. I mean, it, it appears to me that that's going to be an area where there's probably some new solutions, some new companies we don't even know about yet. So, to me that's a very exciting area that's been dormant for quite a while. What about Consumer, Dan? It's been this K economy. It's been very bifurcated, you know, high-end versus middle-income, lower-income. I mean, what are the themes within consumer that you're finding in putting to work in your portfolio? Daniel Skelly: Yeah. We've talked a lot, Mike, in the last year or so about playing Consumer platforms, particularly domestically oriented versus global consumer brands. And there's a couple of key drivers behind that. But first, when you look at what's going on in consumer land, and Simeon Gutman's been a really good, kind of, analyst looking at this theme over time. In many ways it's starting to resemble the Mag 7 in terms of winner take all phenomena. If you look at some of the major consumer big box platforms, they're taking 50- 60 percent of share of total retail sales. Just a couple of companies. So, number one, we're really focused on platforms where market share gains, free cash flow and revenue – recurring revenue – in particular, are leading to even stronger competitive moats, particularly in a capital-intensive industry. And what we've observed about retail is that as those leaders in big box areas take more share, they can reinvest that winning capital in their advertising growth in their online channel and widen their moats even more. Secondly though, in order to have a positive theme, I've always said you got to fund it from somewhere. And so, what we've observed again over the last year or so is – when I think about some of the even highest quality global brands they've suffered seeing less traction in China. And that's amid less of a willingness from Chinese consumers to own American and European brands. There's a lot to that, but I think culturally, obviously the trade war, the AI war for prominence leading to maybe some of that lack of cultural traction. Secondly, we've also, I think, started to see the growth of AI tools start to weigh on established brands. I think what makes a brand cool and the barriers to entry in terms of creating brands is going to go down in the future because of AI influencing and advertising tools. And so, simply put, we continue to like, Mike, the big box consumer platforms across, clothing and food, housing, across e-commerce. That continues to be one of our higher conviction themes. Mike Wilson: All right, Dan, I want to come back to, kind of, AI infrastructure. I mean, AI spending has been the big, big theme. But there's other types of infrastructure spend and CapEx. It's been dormant, quite frankly, and with the [One] Big Beautiful Bill [Act] perhaps incentivizing some of that. How does that play into your thought process around other industrial stocks that could benefit? Daniel Skelly: Absolutely, Mike. You cited the AI infrastructure spending. We think continues kind of unimpeded going into next year. Number two, we think the Fed cutting, just creating better financing conditions in terms of bigger projects. You mentioned as well, the fiscal incentives. And look, I think Chris Snyder has been spot on the last year or so talking about reshoring production wins coming back to the U.S. I don't think this is certainly as cognizant on the – or on the minds of individual investors. Maybe not even institutional investors. But the U.S. is winning manufacturing production share and has been for some time. And we've seen that no doubt ramp up post the announcement of the [One] Big Beautiful Bill {Act]. No doubt. But we think that has implications, Mike, for stocks and stock picking within what we would call, kind of, shorter cycle themes. And I think whether that be in Logistics and Transports or HVAC or some of the Non-Resi, Non-Datacenter related verticals. There are a whole bunch of stocks that have been kind of dormant for two to three years as we've been in this ISM recession that we think could certainly wake up next year as things broaden out. Mike Wilson: Yeah, we would agree with that. And I guess lastly, you know, there's always this Johnny come lately, you know, fear factor of, ‘Well … stocks are up a ton. My neighbor's bragging how much money they're making. So, I must have missed it all.' And I think embedded within that is this fear of valuation. The valuations are now very rich. What's your response to individual clients about – it's not too late, they haven't missed it. It's still a bull market. In fact, we would argue a new bull market began in April with a new economic cycle. What is your response to those folks who have that angst? Daniel Skelly: Two things. One is the market today looks totally different than it did in the past, and AI is no doubt one big part of that. The composition of the market in many ways is higher quality, less debt, more recurring revenue. Big call option on productivity coming from AI earnings, power, et cetera. So, we think the market should trade at richer levels than it did in the past, point number one. Point number two, we would say whereas most people say time is your friend – for individual investors, they would also say valuation is no short term or short run indicator, but it's the best long run indicator. And looking at today's, again, extended levels of valuation relative to history – they would say that's not going to play out well over the long run. I would actually take the other side of that. I think that the earnings and the economic potential unleashed not just from AI, but some of these fiscal and monetary policies could create tremendous margin earnings potential in the long run. And so, I think today we're looking at a level of multiples that appears artificially high. And based on what could be a big earnings inflection point in that multi-year timeframe could frankly just be superficially high. Mike Wilson: Well, Dan, it's always great to get your perspective. I always enjoyed chatting with you. Daniel Skelly: Likewise. Mike Wilson: Thanks for coming on the show and sharing it with our listeners. It's great to see you. Daniel Skelly: Thanks Mike. Mike Wilson: And thanks to our listeners. Thanks for tuning in and let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.
Today, we are breaking down one of the more impressive B2B media businesses I have come across, Doximity. It's been called “the LinkedIn for doctors.” Jim Jones, partner and analyst at William Blair Asset Management, helped explain exactly how Doximity works as a business. Jim gets into the community engine that works for and around medical professionals. And yes, there is a social network, but it's the add-ons, such as the required continued education that doctors can complete on the platform, including script signing, and all of those little tools that make a doctor's or medical professional's life much easier. The revenue engine is advertising, and Jim delves into the nuances of how that spend works, explaining why this is the business model they've chosen. Please enjoy this Breakdown of Doximity. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page here. —- This episode is brought to you by Portrait Analytics - your centralized resource for AI-powered idea generation, thesis monitoring, and personalized report building. Built by buy-side investors, for investment professionals. We work in the background, helping surface stock ideas and thesis signposts to help you monetize every insight. In short, we help you understand the story behind the stock chart, and get to "go, or no-go" 10x faster than before. Sign-up for a free trial today at portraitresearch.com — Business Breakdowns is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Business Breakdowns, visit joincolossus.com/episodes. Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes (00:00:00) Welcome to Business Breakdowns (00:02:52) Overview of Doximity (00:03:46) Doximity's Business Model and Revenue Streams (00:07:25) History and Evolution of Doximity (00:08:33) Competition and Market Position (00:13:27) Advertising Trends and Digital Shift (00:20:20) Doximity's Financials and Profitability (00:22:39) AI Integration and Future Prospects (00:29:32) Valuation and Market Perception (00:32:40) Lessons From Doximity
At Summit, we believe salon professionals should be able to retire on their own terms. In this last episode in our Financials 101 series with CPA Chris Wittich from Boyum Associates, Chris explains why you should be saving for retirement now, even if you're working your very first job. Chris and Blake discuss retirment investment accounts for individuals like IRAs, Roth IRAs, and 401Ks. Also, did you know you can create an online account with the Social Security Administration and see how much you've been contributing in your working life so far? (We didn't!)From the salon owner perspective, we have advice on providing retirement plans for employees, and how to encourage your staff members to contribute. Find Chris Wittich and his team of salon accounting pros at salon.cpa. Follow Summit Salon Business Center on Instagram @SummitSalon, and on TikTok at SummitSalon. SUMM IT UP is now on YouTube! Watch extended cuts of our interviews at www.youtube.com/@summitunlockedFind host Blake Reed Evans on Instagram @BlakeReedEvans and on TikTok at blakereedevans. His DM's are always open! You can email Blake at bevans@summitsalon.com. Visit us at SummitSalon.com to connect with others in the industry.
Despite disappointing economic data, treasury yield dynamics, particularly the widening 2-10 spread, are supporting financial and industrial stocks, making a year-end market grind higher plausible. Justin Bergner notes that a hawkish Federal Reserve rate cut is likely, conditioning the market for less frequent cuts. He highlights regional banks and short-cycle industrial stocks as potential opportunities, given their underperformance and improving macro indicators.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Is IBC with Lafayette a good choice? In this videos, Caleb Guilliams and Alden Armstrong review Lafayette Life Insurance Company for Infinite Banking, breaking down the companies COMDEX ratings, dividend performance, best policy designs, pros and cons, and more! Want a Life Insurance Policy? Go Here: https://bttr.ly/bw-yt-aa-clarity Want FREE Whole Life Insurance Resources & Education? Go Here: https://bttr.ly/yt-bw-vault Want Us To Review Your Permanent Life Insurance Policy? Click Here: https://bttr.ly/yt-policy-review Want the IBC Company Guide Book: Click Here: https://bttr.ly/ibc-guide 00:00 Introduction 01:06 Lafayette Life Company Overview (History, Structure, and Financials) 02:14 Key Financial Metrics 06:00 Lafayette Life and Infinite Banking (IBC) Positioning 07:21 Lafayette Life's Product and Design Strategy 08:44 Cash Flow Design 13:24 Front-Load Design 16:30 How Loans Work with Lafayette Life 18:30 Paid-Up Additions (PUA) Flexibility 21:34 Summary of Lafayette Life (Advantages and Disadvantages) 26:22 Agent Perspective and Conclusion ______________________________________________ Learn More About BetterWealth: https://betterwealth.com ==================== DISCLAIMER: https://bttr.ly/aapolicy *This video is for entertainment purposes only and is not financial or legal advice. Financial Advice Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for education, discussion, and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of the information on this channel. Neither host nor guests can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered.
In this episode of "Ag Credit Set It," host Phil Young dives deep into the intricacies of year-end financial preparation with special guest Nathan Buzard, a seasoned credit analyst at AgCredit. Discover why year-end financials are crucial for farmers and lenders alike, and learn how to effectively prepare your balance sheets, earning statements, and year-end questionnaires. Nathan shares expert insights on the importance of accurate financial reporting, the difference between cash and accrual accounting, and common pitfalls to avoid. Whether you're a seasoned farmer or new to the field, this episode offers valuable strategies to enhance your financial acumen and ensure a prosperous future for your farm. Tune in to gain a comprehensive understanding of how detailed financials can influence loan approvals and credit limits, and why regular communication with your lender is key to financial success. Show Notes: Connect with AgCredit on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram Share questions and topic ideas with us:Email podcast@agcredit.net
As promised in the last episode, I turn the tables on my client and fellow business owner Jen McAllister to explain how her team of CPAs and Accountants deliver everything for small to medium sized businesses. She's passionate about helping businesses clean up the books, get more tax efficient and grow. Listen in to see if this tremendous team is right for your business. Highlights Preparing assets for sale Value by strategic design The role of family and business in the U.S. Evolving with client needs Year-round business immersion Bookkeeping vs. strategy Financials: not just numbers When to bring in external help Scaling with flexible teams The importance of exit planning Helping businesses grow up Maintaining quality of life in ownership Hiring strategically for growth Links and Resources from this Episode Connect with Gary Pinkerton https://www.paradigmlife.net/ gpinkerton@paradigmlife.net https://garypinkerton.com/ https://clientportal.paradigmlife.net/WealthView360 Connect with Jen McAllister https://riseaccountingllc.com/about/ https://exit-planning-institute.org/about-us jen@riseaccountingllc.com Review, Subscribe and Share If you like what you hear please leave a review by clicking here Make sure you're subscribed to the podcast so you get the latest episodes. Subscribe with Apple Podcasts Follow on Audible Subscribe with Listen Notes Subscribe with RSS
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why he continues to hold on to an out-of-consensus view of a growth positive 2026, despite near-term risks.Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today I'll discuss our outlook for 2026 that we published earlier this week. It's Wednesday, Nov 19th at 6:30 am in New York. So, let's get after it. 2026 is a continuation of the story we have been telling for the past year. Looking back to a year ago, our U.S. equity outlook was for a challenging first half, followed by a strong second half. At the time of publication, this was an out of consensus stance. Many expected a strong first half, as President Trump took office for his second term. And then a more challenging second half due to the return of inflation. We based our differentiated view on the notion that policy sequencing in the new Trump administration would intentionally be growth negative to start. We likened the strategy to a new CEO choosing to ‘kitchen sink' the results in an effort to clear the decks for a new growth positive strategy. We thought that transition would come around mid-year. The U.S. economy had much less slack when President Trump took office the second time, compared to the first time he came into office. And this was the main reason we thought it was likely to be sequenced differently. Earnings revisions breadth and other cyclical indicators were also in a phase of deceleration at the end of 2024. In contrast, at the beginning of 2017—when we were out of consensus bullish—earnings revisions breadth and many cyclical gauges were starting to reaccelerate after the manufacturing and commodity downturn of 2015/2016. Looking back on this year, this cadence of policy sequencing did broadly play out—it just happened faster and more dramatically than we expected. Our views on the policy front still appear to be out of consensus. Many industry watchers are questioning whether policies enacted this year will ultimately lead to better growth going forward, especially for the average stock. From our perspective, the policy choices being made are growth positive for 2026 and are largely in line with our ‘run it hot' thesis. There's another factor embedded in our more constructive take. April marked the end of a rolling recession that began three years prior. The final stages were a recession in government thanks to DOGE, a rate of change trough in expectations around AI CapEx growth and trade policy, and a recession in consumer services that is still ongoing. In short, we believe a new bull market and rolling recovery began in April which means it's still early days, and not obvious—especially for many lagging parts of the economy and market. That is the opportunity. The missing ingredient for the typical broadening in stock performance that happens in a new business cycle is rate cuts. Normally, the Fed would have cut rates more in this type of weakening labor market. But due to the imbalances and distortions of the COVID cycle, we think the Fed is later than normal in easing policy, and that has held back the full rotation toward early cycle winners. Ironically, the government shutdown has weakened the economy further, but has also delayed Fed action due to the lack of labor data releases. This is a near-term risk to our bullish 12-month forecasts should delays in the data continue, or lagging labor releases do not corroborate the recent weakness in non-govt-related jobs data. In our view, this type of labor market weakness coupled with the administration's desire to ‘run it hot' means that, ultimately, the Fed is likely to deliver more dovish policy than the market currently expects. It's really just a question of timing. But that is a near-term risk for equity markets and why many stocks have been weaker recently. In short, we believe a new bull market began in April with the end of a rolling recession and bear market. Remember the S&P [500] was down 20 percent and the average S&P stock was down more than 30 percent into April. This narrative remains underappreciated, and we think there is significant upside in earnings over the next year as the recovery broadens and operating leverage returns with better volumes and pricing in many parts of the economy. Our forecasts reflect this upside to earnings which is another reason why many stocks are not as expensive as they appear despite our acknowledgement that some areas of the market may appear somewhat frothy. For the S&P 500, our 12-month target is now 7800 which assumes 17 percent earnings growth next year and a very modest contraction in valuation from today's levels. Our favorite sectors include Financials, Industrials, and Healthcare. We are also upgrading Consumer Discretionary to overweight and prefer Goods over Services for the first time since 2021. Another relative trade we like is Software over Semiconductors given the extreme relative underperformance of that pair and positioning at this point. Finally, we like small caps over large for the first time since March 2021, as the early cycle broadening in earnings combined with a more accommodative Fed provides the backdrop we have been patiently waiting for. We hope you enjoy our detailed report published earlier this week and find it helpful as you navigate a changing marketplace on many levels. Thanks for tuning in. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!
Today we are breaking down GE Aerospace. We did cover GE several years ago, but that episode focused on Larry Culp's turnaround of the conglomerate. Ramesh Narayanaswamy, co-founder and portfolio manager of Tourbillon Partners, joins me to explore what is now a pure-play aerospace business. We discuss the unique dynamics of the aerospace supply chain and the long-cycle nature that differentiates this industry. We also explore the complexity of aircraft engine manufacturing and how GE exemplifies the powerful model of selling services attached to equipment. Please enjoy our conversation on GE Aerospace. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page here. —- This episode is brought to you by Portrait Analytics - your centralized resource for AI-powered idea generation, thesis monitoring, and personalized report building. Built by buy-side investors, for investment professionals. We work in the background, helping surface stock ideas and thesis signposts to help you monetize every insight. In short, we help you understand the story behind the stock chart, and get to "go, or no-go" 10x faster than before. Sign-up for a free trial today at portraitresearch.com — Business Breakdowns is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Business Breakdowns, visit joincolossus.com/episodes. Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes (00:00:00) Welcome to Business Breakdowns (00:01:52) Overview of GE Aerospace (00:04:01) Commercial Jet Engines: Market and Segments (00:08:16) Military and Defense Applications (00:10:07) Financials and Revenue Streams (00:15:57) The Legacy and Transformation of GE (00:20:31) Jet Engine Industry and GE's Role (00:22:04) Challenges and Partnerships in Jet Engine Manufacturing (00:28:39) Revenue Models and Customer Segments (00:30:29) Understanding the OE and Aftermarket Revenue Models (00:31:50) The Profitability of Aftermarket Services (00:34:25) Revenue Models in the Aftermarket (00:36:11) Growth Strategies and Market Dynamics (00:39:38) Impact of Economic Cycles and Resilience (00:43:33) Capital Intensity and Return on Capital (00:47:12) Competitive Landscape and Technological Risks (00:55:07) Valuation Approaches and Market Perception (00:57:39) Key Takeaways and Lessons from GE