Podcasts about philadelphia fed

The U.S. Labor Department released the weekly Initial Jobless claims Report; the U.S. Commerce Department's Census Bureau reported Housing Starts; the Philadelphia Fed reported average workweek at factories; the National Association of Home Builders released the survey of homebuilders' sentiment; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development released the Housing Starts report; Kevin has the details, digs into the data and offers his insights. While at the MId-America Trucking Show, Kevin interviewed Jeremy Citron, Founder and Partner, Long Haul law.

The U.S. Labor Department released the weekly Initial Jobless claims Report; the U.S. Commerce Department's Census Bureau reported Housing Starts; the Philadelphia Fed reported average workweek at factories; the National Association of Home Builders released the survey of homebuilders' sentiment; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development released the Housing Starts report; Kevin has the details, digs into the data and offers his insights. While at the MId-America Trucking Show, Kevin interviewed Jeremy Citron, Founder and Partner, Long Haul law.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe [DS][CB] are trying to coverup their crimes and push more money laundering. The people see it and are rejecting it. Congress with a very low approval rating decided to give themselves a massive raise while people are struggling in the economy they created that is imploding. Trump is going to use the leverage against the [CB]. The [DS] is trying to protect their criminal syndicate and cover up their crimes. They buried many riders within this massive bill. The people see what they are doing and this is the opposite of what the people wanted. The [DS] firewall will not work. Trump has prepared the Road to 47 playbook to counter the [DS]. This newsletter will bypass the fake news and the corrupt politicians. The clock is ticking down.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy   https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1869468690808438890   public subsidies, yet Congress is giving them a prime site for billionaire owners to cash in—without asking taxpayers. Lawmakers are calling it “economic development,” but let's be honest: it's a taxpayer-funded playground for NFL elites, lobbyists, and VIPs, while schools, healthcare, and infrastructure are left on the bench. Stuffed into a must-pass bill, there's little time for oversight—or for taxpayers to question why their money is being leveraged for luxury suites and skyboxes. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1869414233483698402  https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1869126254336541155  inflation periods ended, the index traded flat on average. The only exceptions where the market rallied were a soft landing in the late 1990s and late 1960s. By comparison, the average gain for all other months has been 0.65%. Inflation is taking the spotlight again. Biden Lied About Everything: Philly Fed Finds All Jobs "Created" In Q2 Were Fake  Biden Bureau of Labor Statistics would revise jobs for the April 2023-March 2024 period by "up to 1 million", something which we said would mean that all job report "beats" recorded in the past year will have been misses and the US labor market is in far worse shape than the admin would admit. The final results, as everyone knows by now, was a shocking 818K revision lower, just as the Philadelphia Fed had     the Biden admin lie again, but the collapse in the labor market that had been covered up for much of the past year and was only exposed with the annual benchmark revision, extended into the second quarter. "Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2024 were significantly different" - read lower - "in 27 states compared with preliminary state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES)", the Philly Fed said on December 12. "According to the early benchmark (EB) estimates conducted by the Phily Fed, employment was lower in 25 states, higher in two states, and lesser changes in the remaining 23 states and the District of Columbia." Translation: 23 states unchanged, 1 revised higher...  and 25 lower. By state, the regional Fed bank estimates that largest revision of employment for the nine-month period ended in June will come from California, where it sees a downward revision of 172,700 jobs. Payrolls in Texas may be revised down by 112,100. An extended forecast by the BLS to the third quarter show further declines as well. Translation: in his latest attempt to create an impression of economic growth, Biden lied about everything, again. Source: zerohedge.

Alaina Barca and Surekha Carpenter examine the decline in the number of bank branches in certain communities and the economic effects of that trend. They also share data from the Banking Deserts Dashboard developed for the Fed Communities website. Barca is a community development research analyst at the Philadelphia Fed and Carpenter is a research analyst at the Richmond Fed. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_11_13_banking_deserts

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said it is time for the US central bank to start cutting interest rates and emphasized the path down should be “methodical.” He spoke with Bloomberg's Michael McKee, Tom Keene and Lisa Abramowicz from the sidelines of the Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the most recent Beige Book, the Philadelphia Fed reported a staffing firm said it’s having an easier time filling night and weekend shifts. Could this mean the labor market is loosening up? We'll talk to some folks around the country who are picking up jobs at odd hours. Also in this episode: rental car agencies pile on fees, China restricts graphite exports, and class barriers break down at … Applebee's?

In the most recent Beige Book, the Philadelphia Fed reported a staffing firm said it’s having an easier time filling night and weekend shifts. Could this mean the labor market is loosening up? We'll talk to some folks around the country who are picking up jobs at odd hours. Also in this episode: rental car agencies pile on fees, China restricts graphite exports, and class barriers break down at … Applebee's?

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Q1Ot2c This is Trevor Cummings playing backup quarterback for one more day. As mentioned, David will be back with you tomorrow with his weekly Dividend Cafe. Today is quite a busy one for David, as he will be attending both the Economic Club of New York for Jerome Powell's speech and then closes out the evening at the National Review Gala. With that said, we've got a handful of data and news to keep us busy for the time being. We will tackle initial jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, existing home sales, Powell's speech, and Jordan's persistence. That was a mouthful, now off we go… Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

European bourses and US futures reside in the red with earnings dominating newsflow; NFLX +13.5%, TSLA -4.8%, SAP +4.8%.USD has been grinding higher alongside yields to the detriment of peers with the slim exception of EUR & JPYCrude benchmarks reside in the red after Wednesday's gains with metals mixed and spot gold near unchangedReports of renewed heavy shelling by Israel in Gaza while reports indicate Israel won backing from Biden to push ahead with a ground invasionLooking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Philadelphia Fed, Existing Home Sales & Leading Index, Fed's Powell, Jefferson, Goolsbee, Barr, Bostic, Harker & Logan. Earnings from Philip Morris, AT&T.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were lower across the board amid spillover selling from global peers.After-hours earnings in the US saw Netflix surge 12.8%, whilst Tesla fell 4.2%.European equity futures are indicative of a lower open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.6% after the cash market closed down 1.1% yesterday.FX markets are steady with DXY caged in a tight range above 106.50, AUD suffers post-jobs data and USD/JPY continues to eye 150.Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Philadelphia Fed, Existing Home Sales & Leading Index, Fed's Powell, Jefferson, Goolsbee, Barr, Bostic, Harker & Logan, Supply from France & Spain.Earnings from Roche, Nestle, Pernod Ricard, Renault, L'Oréal, Philip Morris, AT&T.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US may not be over more rate hikes yet.First up today, Fed boss Powell has been speaking and trying to pitch a middle path, one that he suggests they have got policy settings about right. But he did concede that the American economy's strength including very tight labour markets could warrant more rate hikes, and they may not yet be done with the rate increases."We are attentive to recent data showing the resilience of economic growth and demand for labour. Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth, or that tightness in the labour market is no longer easing, could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy," he said overnight.Meanwhile, American jobless claims fell by -13,000 from the prior week to 198,000 last week, the least since January and well below market estimates of 212,000. These are the seasonally-adjusted headline levels. On an actual basis there were 181,000 claims nationally last week, and there are now 1,549,000 people on these benefits, which is the lowest level in 2023 so far.Also low are American house sales. Existing home sales fell by -2% in September from the previous month to an annualised rate under 4 million units, the lowest since October 2010. They are down more than -15% from year-ago levels.The Philadelphia Fed factory survey reported a rise in new orders shipments that weren't expected, but overall activity is lower than a year ago. Firms in this survey are positive about the future over the upcoming year,.Across the border, and for a second month in a row, Canada's producer prices rose although this time the rise was about what was expected, and up a manageable +2.4% from a year ago.Japan's pivot away from China seems to be paying off. Exports are rising again, up +4.3% in September from the same month a year ago. This was underpinned by a +13.0% jump in exports to the US.In China, new home prices fell their most in almost a year in September. This undermines the idea that Beijing is on top of their property crisis. For new homes they fell in 45 of the top 70 cities. For resales they fell in 67 of the 70 on a year-on-year basis. It was similar for both sectors of their housing market on a month-on-month basis. Both are worse than for August and a blow to sentiment in this sector.Overnight, updated American data for China's holdings of US Treasuries shows them continuing to sell down these holdings. As at the end of August they held US$805 bln which is down -US$16.7 bln in a month and down -US$133 bln in a year. Analysts are saying China is building reserves to defend the yuan. Interestingly Beijing has held the yuan exchange rate virtually unchanged for each of the last seven days, something that seem unnatural and can only be achieved with aggressive intervention in currency markets. That can be very costly, but so far they are achieving that fixed rate stability. It's isn't hurting the Americans; foreign holdings of their debt has risen +US$213 bln (+3%) over the same one year period, just not from China.Yields on the Chinese yuan bonds are now at their steepest discount to the US since 2002. At some point, something will give. Apparently Chinese holders are sweating it because a rise in yuan yields will come with bond price losses.And staying in China, a Japanese manager based in China at a Japanese drug company there was arrested on 'spying' charges, for apparently 'sharing company information' with his bosses that was deemed 'sensitive' by China. The charges are unclear. The arrest comes after China revised legislation broadening the scope of what activities beijing considers espionage. Foreign firms are on edge. Foreign investment will retreat further.Australia reported its monthly September labour market data yesterday. Things were little-changed with their jobless rate at 3.6% but the twist was to much more part-time work. There were +58,200 part time jobs added in September, and -23,300 full time jobs lost in the month.Globally, container freight rates were unchanged last week, the first time they haven't fallen week-on-week since August. They have settled 60% lower than year-ago levels and -4% lower than pre-pandemic levels. Rates to and from China are still falling, but low rates elsewhere are now rising. And bulk cargo rates continue their rise.The UST 10yr yield has risen further today. It is now at 4.98% and up a net +10 bps from this time yesterday. Again, this is a new modern post-GFC high. The price of gold will start today at US$1961/oz and up +US$9/oz from this time yesterday - and a three month high.Oil prices have risen +50 USc to be now at just over US$88/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just over US$91/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.5 USc and just marginally softer from yesterday. But this is its lowest level in almost a year. Against the Aussie we are still at 92.4 AUc which is down -1¼c since the start of the week. Against the euro we have eased lower again to 55.3 euro cents and a five week low. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.6, down -100 bps from this time last week. We are starting to get into territory where the lower exchange rate can itself be inflationaryThe bitcoin price starts today at US$28,676 and up +1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Remember, it is a public holiday in New Zealand on Monday – Labour Day.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Tuesday.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong discuss home sales are on track for slowest year since housing bust. Housing remains America's biggest supply chain problem. How can we fix the housing in this country? A recession is no longer the consensus. US could see 4.5% unemployment in 2024, Philadelphia Fed's Harker says. Fall in US inflation not just a blip, says Fed official Goolsbee. Gas prices fueled summer inflation. That is about to change.

In this episode of our Week Ahead podcast series, we look at the main themes driving global markets over the coming week. In the US (01:58), we have the FOMC meeting, flash PMIs, the Philadelphia Fed, housing starts, Canada CPI and retail sales. In Europe (07:20), it's the BOE, SNB, Riksbank and Norges bank as well as UK CPI and retail sales, German PPI and flash PMIs for September. Then it's the latest from Asia (19:15) with the BOJ, BI, BSP and CBC meetings, Korean exports, Japan CPI, RBA minutes, NZ GDP as well as the Macro Notes of the Week all to discuss (13:57).

Join Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz, live From the 2023 Jackson Hole Symposium with esteemed guests including Mohamed El-Erian of Queens' College Cambridge, Tracy Alloway of Bloomberg Odd Lots, Patrick Harker of the Philadelphia Fed, Kristalina Georgieva of the IMF and Barry Eichengreen of UC Berkeley.Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news UST yields are now near a 16-year high on fears American interest rates will stay higher for longer. And EU bonds yields are moving up too. Higher interest rates will weigh on asset valuations, especially real estate and commercial real estate in particular.But first, new US jobless claims came in at 212,000 last week, less than the week before and lower than expected. There are now 1.8 mln people on these benefits, a +10,000 increase from the prior week.The US Conference Board leading economic index is still pointing to an upcoming decline in near-term American economic activity but the weight is very much less now, in the July survey out today.And the Philadelphia Fed's factory survey in its industrial heartland is pointing to a good pickup in new order levels. It was a sub-index that had been negative for 14 consecutive months, so it is a sharp turnaround. And it wasn't the only improving indicator.Across the Pacific, Japan's exports fell -0.3% in July from a year earlier, the first drop in more than two years, reflecting the slowing global economy including in key trade partner China.But Japanese machinery orders rose slightly in June.Today, all eyes will be on the release of Japan's July CPI. It was running at 3.3% in June and analysts expect the July increase to come in at about 2.5%.In China, their central bank is trying to force the value of the yuan up when it is under devaluation pressure. It's in a tough spot because it needs to cut local interest rates to support growth but that would normally depress its currency. But markets aren't buying the moves and have devalued the currency anyway despite the official fixing indication. The gap between the official rate and the market rate is now its widest in ten months. But without a better rate, the central bank will have to absorb some very chunky losses.In London and New York, China's major state-owned banks were seen selling US dollars to buy yuan in an attempt to slow the yuan's depreciation. Though they also trade on their own behalf or to execute clients' orders, state banks often act for the central bank when the yuan is under pressure, as it is now.And in China itself, investors who put money in a troubled shadow bank said police officers visited their homes and urged them to avoid public protests, the latest sign authorities are worried about unrest as fears grow of financial contagion.It is increasingly noticeable that the financial media in China are avoiding any coverage of their economic stresses. And because there isn't a lot of 'good news', their coverage of any economic news has become somewhat trivial.As expected the Philippines left its official policy interest rate unchanged at 6.25% in their regular review.Overnight Norway raised its policy rate by +25 bps from 3.75% to 4.0%.In Australia, they released their July labour market data. Their jobless rate rose to 3.7% in July from 3.5% in June, above market expectations of 3.6%, and the highest level since April. There are now 541,000 unemployed in Australia, and increase of +35,600 in one month. Employment unexpectedly fell by -14,600 when analysts expected a +15,000 rise. Full-time employment fell by -24,200 while part-time employment rose by +9,600. Their participation rate fell to 66.7%.And staying in Australia, there is a listing surge underway in their housing markets, rising at a rate far higher than the market can absorb without selling price discounting.Freight rates for containerised cargoes rose another +2.3% last week as the upturn gathers pace. Bulk cargo rates turned higher as well.The UST 10yr yield will start today at 4.31% and up another +4 bps from yesterday and now a new sixteen year high. The price of gold will start today at US$1885/oz and down -US$13 from yesterday.And oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just under US$80/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is just under US$8/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today softish at just on 59.3 USc, down -10 bps and it's lowest since November 2022. Against the Aussie we are a little firmer at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are marginally softer at 54.5 euro cents. That all means the TWI-5 is still at 68.5 and little-changed from this time yesterday.The bitcoin price is very much lower today from this time yesterday and now at US$27,929 which is down a rather substantial -4.1%. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been moderate at just on +/- 2.7%. The latest CFTC survey shows hedge funds and commodity trading advisors ramped up bearish bets in CME-listed cash-settled bitcoin futures. And in the UK Pay-Pal pulled back from allowing crypto purchases via its platform. Neither move improved sentiment for bitcoin.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

In this episode of our Week Ahead podcast series, we look at the main themes driving global markets over the coming week. In the US (01:30) we have Retail sales, IP, the Empire manufacturing and Philadelphia Fed surveys as well as Canadian CPI. In Europe (04:16) it's UK CPI, retail sales, Rightmove house prices, CBI trends, German PPI and Euro zone confidence measures. Then it's the latest from Asia (09:10) with Japan and NZ CPI, RBA minutes, China GDP as well as Global markets all to discuss.

In this episode of our Week Ahead podcast series, we look at the main themes driving global markets over the coming week. In the US (01:25), we have flash PMIs, any “hawkish hold” fed speak and the Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing. In Europe (08:25), it's the BOE, SNB and Norges bank meetings, UK CPI, retail sales, flash PMIs and German PPI. Then it's the latest from Asia (16:55), with Japan CPI, the BSP and BI meetings, as well as the macro notes of the week to discuss (04:50). 

US equities rallied overnight, with all three major indices gaining over 1% on strong economic data. Dow up 429 points (+1.26%). Dow at best up 510 points. Dow at worst down 33 points. S&P 500 up 1.22%, moving firmly above the 4400 level. NASDAQ up 1.15%, closing at its highest level in 14 months. US treasury yields slid after economic data pointed to easing inflation, helping offset worries about future rate hikes and boosting Microsoft and Apple shares to record highs. USD Index stumbled, down 0.81% following the ECB rate rise of 25bps. SPI Futures up 29 points (+0.41%).Big economic day overnight. Initial jobless claims were sharply above expectations at 262k vs consensus of 249k, the highest reading since October 2021. Results reflect some softening in the US labour market after a prolonged period of tightness. US retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.3%, exceeding expectations of a 0.1% decline, following April's 0.4% rise. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing contracted largely in line with expectations, whereas the NY Empire manufacturing unexpectedly expanded.European markets are broadly down, STOXX 50 -0.3%, FTSE +0.3%, CAC -0.5%, and DAX -0.1%. After the ECB rose rates by 25bps for the eighth straight time to 3.5%, the highest level in 22 years. Eurozone inflation is still hot at 6.1%, more than three times the ECB's 2% target. The Euro hit a 15-year high against the yen and a five-week high against the dollar following the rate rise. Australian dollar flat, down 0.09% to 68.79c.Gold rebounded 0.82% from a 3-month low as USD index slid lower.Copper reached a 5-month high, up 0.72% overnight on increased economic support in China.WTI crude rose 3.51%, and Brent gained 2.87% as IEA predicted global oil demand to rise by 6% between 2022 and 2028.Zinc -0.4% Nickel +1.06%, Aluminium +-0.07%, Lead +0.61%, Tin +1.77%.Bitcoin rose 2.34% overnight.10-year yield: US 3.72%, Australia 3.95%, and Germany 2.49%.Get up to speed with Henry Jennings' Pre-Market Podcast.Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.Make life simple. Invest with Marcus Today.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that markets are assuming a US debt deal will be done soon to avoid a shutdown and default.Well, equity markets seem to be assuming that. Bond markets aren't so sure although yield inversions are either easing back or not getting worse. But long-term rates are rising slightly.Last week's new American jobless claims fell back unexpectedly to +216,000 and there are now 1.6 mln people on these benefits. Analysts had expected higher levels, not lower levels. The strength of the US labour market is not done yet it seems. Markets noticed, thinking this will give room for another Fed rate hike at their June 15 (NZT) meeting.The next regional Fed factory survey, this one from the manufacturing heartland by the Philadelphia Fed was far less negative than the New York one. It improved in May sharply from its April low although to be fair it is still not 'positive'. The indicators for current activity, new orders, and shipments rose, but all three remained in negative territory. The firms surveyed continue to indicate overall increases in prices paid and decreases for prices received. The survey's future indexes still suggest "tempered expectations" for growth over the next six months.Meanwhile, existing-home sales faded -3.4% in April to an annual rate of 4.28 mln. That is their largest drop in more than a decade. Sales fell more than -23% from one year ago. Unsold inventories rose.Leading indicators for the US economy remain mildly weak, but little-changed.In the period leading up to round one of the Turkish election, investors voted with their feet, betting Erdogan would not concede and would remain. The country's foreign currency and gold reserves fell another -US$17 bln. The run-off round of voting there is on May 28, 2023In Australia, their jobless rate rose to 3.7% in April from 3.5% in March. It was a rise that wasn't expected. At the same time, employment -4,300 when a +25,000 rise was expected. Full-time jobs fell -27,100 while part-time jobs rose +22,800.And staying in Australia, Westpac has banned customers from transacting with Binance. And Binance was stripped of its ability to accept PayID funds transfers from Australian clients. The global crypto firm is fighting to retain banking services in Australia. It is a firm accused of knowingly facilitating money laundering in other jurisdictions, especially the US, and no-one wants to get caught up in that.The latest global container freight cost eased yet again last week and is now -83% below the peak reached in September 2021. It is also -36% lower than the 10-year average which of course includes that peak. However it remains more than +20% higher than average 2019 pre-pandemic rates. The current weakness is spreading to more than just the outbound rates from China. Bulk cargo freight rates eased but are still in their recent general range.But air passenger travel is ramping up, anticipating a surge in demand. That translates to thousands more aircraft and new pilots. Boeing estimates that the world will need more than 600,000 new pilots between 2022 and 2041, and the biggest requirement is in Asia. Pilot training is a huge new growth industry, it seems. Aircraft manufacturers are salivating.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.66%, and up another +8 bps from this time yesterday and a two month high. The price of gold will start today at US$1957/oz and down -US$24 in a day.And oil prices are down -US$1.50 from yesterday to be just under US$71.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now under US$75.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is a -½c lower against the USD from yesterday and now just on 62.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at just under 94 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 57.7 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now under 70.8 and down -20 bps from this time yesterday.The bitcoin price is lower today, now at US$26,477 and down -2.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at just on +/- 1.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

In this episode of The Week in Markets, CNBC's All America Economic Survey, the Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Index, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, and credit availability to small businesses all suggest an imminent recession. Yet S&P's preliminary US Composite PMI rose from 52.3 in March to 53.5 in April, signaling an impending rise in GDP. We put the odds of a recession in the US at 50/50.This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head Research Asia at Julius Baer.

You might groan when you hear you're about to listen to an economics presentation, but Chief Economist Luke Tilley of Wilmington Trust explains how working at the Philadelphia Fed and a premier financial institution has shown him that his peers may be funnier than you think. Luke shares how humor plays a surprising role in his day-to-day and discusses: Why humor is so effective, disarming and humanizing when giving economics presentations. Keeping it level-headed when the economy can sometimes feel impossible to predict. Striking the right balance between a demanding profession and an equally demanding home life (hint: swim, bike and run)

Here's what is happening in the markets today, Thursday, April 20 Stocks are  lower today Tesla (TSLA) profit and revenue sharply lower, shares fall 7%.  Seagate Tech (STX), AT&T (T) and American Express (AXP) results disappoint.  62% of S&P 500 companies beat estimates in earnings season.  Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index lowest since May 2020, jobless claims rise.  Several Fed Speakers on deck today VIX (Fear Index) higher PLUS: How we trade these markets and our current positions This wraps up today's stock market news. If you enjoyed the "Stock Market Today" episode, make sure to subscribe to this podcast.  And for more stock market news,  visit our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/rockwelltrading2008 #todaysstockmarket #stockmarkettoday #stockmarket

It can't be the end of the world when the NASDAQ is up 12% so far this year. The Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlooks Survey at -23.2 and the University of Michigan's Inflation Expectations Index at 3.8% both indicate it's an appropriate time for the Fed to go on hold. European bank shares are up 3% this year, but American bank shares are down 15% over the same period. Unlike Credit Suisse, the run on deposits at Silicon Valley Bank was a bolt from the blue. Efforts to stop the nervousness have been unsuccessful, and now the Federal government, and apparently some of the small and medium sized banks, are talking to Warren Buffett. Eventually, people will run out of nervousness, and realize that both inflation and rates have almost certainly peaked.

Inflation will slow enough for the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes by summer, former Philadelphia Fed staffer and Wilmington Trust chief economist Luke Tilley told MNI.

A measure the Federal Reserve watches closely to gauge inflation rose more than expected in January, indicating the central bank has more work to do to bring down prices. According to a report by the Commerce Department. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 0.6% for the month, and was up 4.7% from a year ago. Wall Street had been expecting respective readings of 0.5% and 4.4%. The core PCE gains were 0.4% and 4.6% in December.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a survey from the Philadelphia Fed that indicates 39% of crypto owners said last October that they would likely buy more cryptocurrency as a way to gain wealth.Chris and Saied look at a research white paper that examines the history of central bank efforts to create disinflation, which states that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to be able to bring down inflation without having to raise interest rates considerably higher, causing a recession.They also offer some thoughts on ‍a report from Goldman Sachs, which says that, out of the country's 25 largest metropolitan areas, four cities stand out for having particularly dim housing forecasts: Austin, Seattle, Phoenix and San Francisco.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You'll Learn in this Show:Why the Fed believes that wages and wage inflation will put upward pressure on prices.What could happen to the sub-markets of San Francisco and Silicon Valley.Why Open Door closed out 2022 with two straight quarters of losses and where it goes from there.The duties and role of a Chief Financial Officer.And so much more...Resources:"Roger Ferguson: The Fed has more work to do as inflation still presents danger" (article from CNBC)"Key Fed inflation measure rose 0.6% in January, more than expected" (article from CNBC)"Despite high inflation, Americans are spending like crazy — and it's kind of puzzling" (article from CNBC)"Fed can't tame inflation without ‘significantly' more hikes that will cause a recession, paper says" (article from CNBC)"Are we headed for a recession? More economists think a 2023 downturn may come later than they thought" (article from USA Today)"Subprime auto lender folds as more Americans fall behind on car payments" (article from Fortune)"Home prices will sink in these cities that were once red hot as supply starts to overwhelm demand" (article from Markets Insider)

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news markets are pricing much lower yields for NZ Government bonds, partly in response to international market shifts.But first, the turn in US economic fortunes still hasn't shown up in their weekly jobless claims data. They came in low last week and lower than expected. There are now 1.9 mln people on these benefits.But weaker conditions are showing up in more factory data. However the Fed's monthly Beige Book surveys came in less negative than expected, noting "moderate to modest" expansions across the country, in their labour markets, and for prices.The Philadelphia Fed's updated survey stayed slightly negative in January, although less so than for the prior month.American building consent and housing start data were both slightly lower in December, but not significantly so. Essentially they are both settling out at pre-pandemic levels.The latest data on long term investment flows in and out of the US shows larger inflows than were expected in December, and for the year.It is tough being a bear on the US economy.But you are being helped by Republicans in Congress who are refusing to pass a budget resolution. The US Treasury has started its 'extraordinary measures' to keep the US Federal Government from defaulting on its payments. Those are likely to drag on for many months yet in response to their pathetic game of chicken.In Japan, exports rose more than expected in December, and imports rose less than expected. But they still ran a record high trade deficit, which is an historically unusual position for them.The ECB says inflation in Europe is still way too high. They signaled they are determined to push rates into restrictive territory “for long enough” to return inflation to their 2% target.In Australia, consumer inflation expectations in rose to 5.6% this month from 5.2% in December, though a general moderation in expectations has been evident in recent months as consumers appear to be responding to higher interest rates, according to the Melbourne Institute who do this survey.And staying in Australia, the December labour market data was a minor disappointment - mainly because November data was revised lower. Full time employment rose +17,000 when +34,000 was expected. Part-time positions retreated -32,000 when they were expected to expand +25,000. Most analysts seem to think the December hesitation is a 'one-off'.Container shipping costs were virtually unchanged last week, although bulk cargo freight rates continued they sharp falls and are back at or below their long term averages, which given inflation, makes them very cheap again.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.42%, and up +3 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will open today at US$1921/oz and up +US$15.And oil prices start today little-changed at just over US$81/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$86.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar has softened overnight, now at 63.9 USc and down -½c. Against the Australian dollar we are little-changed at 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -¾c at 59 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 71, and down -50 bps since this time yesterday.The bitcoin price is stable now at US$20,939 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at +/- 0.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we will do this again on Monday.

In this episode of our Week Ahead podcast series, we'll be looking at the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week. In the US it's Empire manufacturing, retail sales, PPI, Industrial production, Philadelphia Fed and Fed speakers. In Europe it's German ZEWs, UK labour, CPI, retail sales and RICs housing data. Then we mix things up this week and share a few key macro notes from the team (with the BOJ in focus), the latest from Asia and Global markets all to discuss.

The United States is seeing economic trends not witnessed since the Great Depression, including its falling GDP. While there are various estimates on the crisis, it's projected to last for years before real improvements are seen, and early estimates didn't take into account unforeseen events such as ongoing lockdowns in China or Russia's war with Ukraine. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden has been posting on Twitter about rising employment and improvements in the economy. But emerging data suggests the numbers may not be accurate. This includes a recent admission by the Philadelphia Fed that it overstated U.S. jobs by at least 1.1 million. In this live Q&A with Crossroads host Joshua Philipp, we'll discuss these stories and others, and answer questions from the audience. ⭕️ Stay up-to-date with Josh with the Crossroads NEWSLETTER

Scott Shellady, the Cow Guy, reveals the work done by the Philadelphia FED on jobs numbers and how ridiculous the electric car movement is.

(12/15/22) Fed Chair Jerome Powell was "a tad-bit more" hawkish at yesterday's FOMC Presser, announcing another 50-bp rate hike, with more to come in 2023, and no rate cuts possibly until 2024. Markets responded with a mixture of performance. Will Santa skip Broad & Wall this year? Will there be recession next year? A first-peek at Consumer Health comes from today's releases of data on manufacturing, retail sales, jobless claims, capacity utilization, and the Philadelphia Fed business outlook index. The Fed moves Terminal Rate higher; the Fed's credibility is now on the line. The difference between pivot and pause; Christina Roberts' Quebecois Adventure; Tracking the Yield Curves: How do we avoid recession in current economic climate? The Fed's projections are pointless...and wrong. Markets have gone nowhere in response to CPI and Fed speech; year-end trading is taking over. SEG-1: A "Tad More" Hawkish SEG-2: Preview - Economic Data Dump Day SEG-3: Christina Robert's Quebecois Adventure; Tracking the Yield Curves SEG-4: The Problem with 'Safe Haven' stocks Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjsU8egviN8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2683s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: "Jerome Powell Releases the Krackens" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSSgD8uPEsU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Four Things To Do if You Lose Your Job in 2023" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76zhw4Lg110&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2685s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "The 2023 Investing Outlook As The Fed Pivots – Part II" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-2023-investing-outlook-as-the-fed-pivots-part-ii/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #InterestRates #RateHikes #JeromePowell #Recession #2023Economy #Markets #Money #Investing

In this episode, Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer, talks about recent comments by some voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) that rates will need to stay high into 2024, the outperformance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Philadelphia Fed's survey of professional forecasters showing the probability of a recession over the next 12 months, at 43%, the conundrums Arthur Burns faced when he was chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1970 to 1978, the difficulties China is facing in adjusting its zero-Covid policy, and a very rare signal that suggests the Hong Kong stock market could be on the cusp of a bull market and more.

On November 17th, 2022, Steve Grzanich shares today's potential market drivers: U.S. weekly jobless claims U.S. housing starts and building permits Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index Earnings from Macy’s, Kohl’s, Gap, and more

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news economic weaknesses except in some key labour markets.We follow American jobless claims, looking for early signs of labour market stress. But despite other weakish economic signals, this key sector isn't showing that yet. There were just 199,600 new claims last week, a very low level. There are now 1.237 mln people on these benefits, also historically low.But there were weak signs continuing from their housing markets. New housing starts slipped again last month to be -8.8% lower than year-ago levels. Building consent levels -10% lower on that basis. But it is worth noting that both are still above pre-pandemic levels. And overall these October falls were less than was expected.Also weak were the survey results from factories in the Philadelphia Fed region, primarily in Pennsylvania where a grim partisan election took place recently. It swung strongly to the Democrats, and that was despite their factories giving this survey a downbeat assessment, one taken right as votes were counted or immediately after.But not quite so downbeat were factories in the Kansas City Fed survey. Here earlier declines in metrics slowed noticeably.Meanwhile, the St. Louis Fed boss has called for more front-loading of the Fed's rate hikes, wanting it above 5% to get meaningfully on top of their inflation threat. The upper-bound of the Fed's current policy rate is currently 4%. Fed policy makers next meet on December 15, 2022 NZTIn China, Bloomberg is reporting that regulators there have told banks to report on their ability to meet short-term obligations after a rapid selloff triggered a flood of investor withdrawals from fixed-income products. The unscheduled regulatory queries coincided with the biggest decline in China's short-term government bonds since mid-2020. The slump, spurred by a shift toward riskier assets including stocks, prompted retail investors to pull money from wealth-management products, fueling a spiral of price declines and accelerating withdrawals. Losses also spread to top-rated corporate bonds, stoking a record surge in yields this week.In the UK, their "Autumn Statement" is a tough one, recognising that they are already in a deep recession essentially from own-goals, and that their jobless numbers will likely rise by another +500,000 soon. They unveiled £55 bln of tax rises and spending cuts, which they hope will lead to a "shallower downturn" with "fewer jobs lost" that the track they are currently on. Living standards are about to be rest sharply lower there.Australia added +32,000 jobs in October and their jobless rate dipped to 3.4% from 3.5% in September. Better yet, there were +47,000 new full time jobs, and a fall of -15,000 part-time jobs here. These better-than-expected and solid labour market results will likely mean the RBA will add another +25 bps to their official rate in early December, taking it to 3.10%. Markets have priced in slightly less than that prior to this jobs data release.And locally, Fonterra has announced it has finally sold its Chilean Soprole business, for about NZ$1 bln.Container shipping rates continued their fast fall last week, down another sharp -7% from the prior week to be more than -70% lower than year-ago levels and are now -30% lower than five-year averages. It is still rates out of China, and now especially to Europe, that are driving this collapse. It is now almost just a third of the price to ship from Shanghai to Rotterdam, than it is to ship from Rotterdam to New York. That is highly unusual. Bulk freight rates are back to their pre-pandemic levels.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.78% and up +6 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will open today down -US$17 at US$1759/oz.And oil prices start today down -US$2/bbl from this time yesterday at just under US$82/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just under US$89.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today at 60.9 USc and down -½c. Against the Australian dollar we are firmer at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we have slipped back slightly more to 58.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 69.9 and down another -20 bps.The bitcoin price is now at US$16,672 and up +1.4% since this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

Trevor Cummings here, and I am honored to be joining you for the third day in a row.  As mentioned yesterday, David Bahnsen will be back tomorrow with his weekly commentary – Dividend Cafe.  Additionally, I invite you to subscribe to my weekly writings at thoughtsonmoney.com. Now, off to the updates from this busy Thursday market day… Dow: -91.01 (0.30%) S&P: -0.80% Nasdaq: -0.61% 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.232% (+10.3 basis points) Top-performing sector: Communication Services (+0.36%) Bottom-performing sector: Utilities (- 2.51%) WTI Crude Oil: $85.71/barrel (+0.19%) Key Economic Points of the Day: • Liz Truss has resigned as U.K. Prime Minister ◦ This was the shortest tenure in British history ◦ Note, her Finance Minister was dismissed from his post after just 38 days • Jobless claims came in at 214,000 on an expectation of 230,000 ◦ The impacts of Hurricane Ian on the data looked to be much lighter this week ◦ The total number of people collecting unemployment benefits sits at 1.39 million, near a 50-year low ◦ In simple terms, the labor market remains tight • As to be expected, U.S. existing-home sales were down ◦ The figures came in at 4.7 million, nearly on the dot with expectations ◦ This is eight consecutive months of decline and, when compared to September 2021, a slide of 23.8% ◦ Reminder, mortgage interest rates are skyrocketing, the general population is on edge regarding inflation and recession, and this combination of anxiety and affordability is slowing down activity • The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index published today ◦ This regional look is meant to give a sneak peek at what the national ISM data might look like next month ◦ the numbers came in at -8.7 on an expectation of -5 (note, any number below 0 represents declining business conditions) TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

On October 20th, 2022, Steve Grzanich shares today's potential market drivers: U.S. weekly jobless claims U.S. existing home sales Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index Earnings from AT&T, American Airlines, and more

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news that both China and Turkey seem to be wandering off in the belief that economic management doesn't involve behavioural aspects or consequences.But first, US jobless claims fell to 178,000 last week taking the total number of people on these benefits to just on 1.2 mln and unchanged from the prior week at a record low. So still no evidence yet of any rising American labour market stress. You may recall that that they peaked in 2020 at over 23 mln.US existing home sales fell again in September, and apart from the pandemic, are now running at a ten year low. High mortgage interest rates are getting all the blame. But at the same time, sellers are withdrawing as well, so supply is tight, leaving a competitive market for those who want to buy.American may not be buying housing, but they have rediscovered the travel bug. Most large airlines there are reporting record revenues in the September quarter and they are returning to profitability as consumers continue to prioritise spending on travel.The Philadelphia Fed factory survey in the heartland Rust Belt region was weak again in October but no more so than for September. New orders were weak in this region, but hiring was still difficult. And although firms are not optimistic about the next six months, they are still committing increased investment for capital expenditure.In China, Section 9 of the Party Congress report on "Improving the People's Wellbeing and Raising Quality of Life", includes new language about regulating wealth accumulation - "keep income distribution and the means of accumulating wealth well-regulated" it said. An article in The Beijing News that quotes a labour researcher discussing this language says that "a few people accumulated wealth too quickly ... This problem remains to be solved" and that appears to have caused some investor anxiety. (H/T BB)Taiwanese export orders fell in September as expected, down -3.1%, but that was not as sharp a fall as analysts had pencilled in. But weak demand from mainland China is hurting this data, where these orders were down -19% year-on-year. Compared with almost all other regions they were up more than +15% on the same basis.Japanese policymakers made fresh threats of intervention after the yen tumbled past the key psychological level of 150 to the US dollar, keeping investors on high alert in case Tokyo steps into markets again to support the fragile currency. Rumours are swirling that the Bank of Japan is in a new round of emergency bond buying.In Australia, their jobless rate remained steady at 3.5% in September as the number of employed people increased by just +900, and unemployment increased by +8800. Their participation rate was unchanged at 66.6%. We don't get our September labour force data until Wednesday, November 2, 2022.In Victoria, the state government will revive the State Electricity Commission, reversing two decades of outsourcing energy generation to the private sector. But that is only if they are re-elected on November 26, which at this time seems highly likely.Global container shipping costs fell another -3% last week. That takes these costs down to below pre-pandemic levels with the benchmark Shanghai to Los Angeles route now under US$2500/ctnr. This emblematic of the sudden fall away in the China-US trade. Global bulk cargo rates were little-changed.The UST 10yr yield starts today sharply higher again at 4.22%, up another +11 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will open today at US$1636/oz. This is up +US$6 from this time yesterday.And oil prices start today up +US$1.50 from this time yesterday at just under US$85/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$91/bbl. The Kiwi dollar will open today at 57 USc and about +½c firmer than this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are little-changed at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are +¼c firmer at 58.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 67.9, and up +40 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price is now at US$19,167 and virtually unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has however been modest at just +/- 1.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Remember, Monday is a public holiday in New Zealand, Labour Day.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Tuesday.

On September 15th, 2022, Steve Grzanich shares today's potential market drivers: U.S. retail sales U.S. weekly jobless claims Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index Empire State manufacturing index Import price index Earnings from Adobe

On August 18th, 2022, Steve Grzanich shares today's potential market drivers: U.S. weekly jobless numbers U.S. existing home sales numbers Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index Earnings from BJ’s Wholesale, Kohl’s, and more

APAC stocks mostly declined following the weak handover from global counterparts as markets ramped up hawkish central bank pricing.FOMC Minutes noted many officials saw a risk the Fed could tighten more than necessary.European equity futures are indicative of a marginally higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed lower by 1.3% yesterday.FX markets are relatively contained with the DXY remaining on a 106 handle, EUR/USD capped by resistance at 1.02 and USD/JPY is just above 135.00.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ CPI (Final), US IJC, Philadelphia Fed, Existing Home Sales, New Zealand Trade Balance, Norges Bank & CBRT Policy Announcements, Speeches from Fed's George, Fed's Kashkari & ECB's Schnabel, supply from France.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

On July 21st, 2022, Steve Grzanich shares today's potential market drivers: Weekly jobless claims numbers Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index Earnings from AT&T, Fifth Third Bank, and more

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news central bank actions to lean harder against inflation got more pointed today. And that has moved bond markets especially.But first, US jobless claims inched higher again last week and now 1.45 mln people are on these benefits, well off their all-time lows of a month or so ago, but still historically very low.The Philadelphia Fed factory survey for July is now showing retreating conditions. They report on a heartland manufacturing area and the fall away in new orders will be of a special concern. The price pressures are easing but they still remain high from an historical perspective. On the 'plus' side, the jobs and current activity categories of this survey remain quite positive.Nationally and more generally, the Conference Board leading index remains off the boil, but only minorly and little changed in July from June, and is still historically very high.As expected, Japan reported a larger trade deficit in June from the higher cost of oil. But the deficit wasn't as large as some had feared. However, the more important news here was the unexpected strength in Japanese exports, reinforcing that there is strong global demand for Japanese high-tech machinery. Exports rose more than +19% in June from a year ago, the 16th straight month of gains.Even though the Bank of Japan is seeing higher inflation of +2.3% core, and up from 1.9%, and they are watching commodity prices rise, they have left their ultra-loose monetary policy settings unchanged for a 78th straight month. They downgraded their 2022/23 growth forecast from +2.9% to +2.4%.In China, HSBC has become the first foreign lender to install a Chinese Communist Party committee within its investment banking subsidiary in the country.The European Central Bank has turned suddenly active. They raised their three key interest rates by +50 bps, the first increase since 2011 and ending eight years of negative rates, in an attempt to bring inflationary pressures under control. This was double what was anticipated. They also said that further normalisation of interest rates will be coming soon. And they started a new bond purchase scheme to help more indebted member states to cap the rise in the borrowing costs "and limit financial fragmentation".The South African central bank also surprised markets with an outsized rate hike. +50 bps was expected but they delivered +75 bps to 5.5%.In Australia, there are growing calls to shut their border with Bali to keep the foot & mouth disease out. Fear of what it will do there is rising fast. Returning surfers seem to be the primary risk.Container shipping costs fell again last week and are now -24% lower than a year ago. The biggest retreats are for the China trade. The Baltic Dry index is going sideways.The UST 10yr yield starts today at 2.92% and down -11 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will open today at US$1714/oz in New York which is up +US$13 from this time yesterday.And oil prices are down -US$2.50/bbl at just under US$96.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at just over US$100.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar will open today a little softer at 62.1 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are nearly -½c softer at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also softer at just under 61 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at 70.9 and -20 bps lower from yesterday.The bitcoin price is lower from this time yesterday, down by -3.2% to US$22,807. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just under +/-3.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Monday.

This episode is also available as a blog post: http://confoundedinterest.net/2022/07/21/not-always-sunny-philadelphia-fed-business-outlook-plunges-to-12-30-in-july-as-atlanta-fed-gdpnow-retreats-to-1-6-for-q2-will-the-fed-stop-qt/

APAC stocks were pressured on spillover selling after the worst day on Wall St in almost two years; S&P 500 -4%Shanghai Vice Mayor said Shanghai will expand work resumption in areas with no COVID risk in early June.European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open with Eurostoxx 50 -0.6% after the cash market closed lower by 1.4% yesterday.DXY remains on a 103 handle, EUR/USD hovers around the 1.05 mark and AUD Leads G10 FX post-jobs data.Looking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Philadelphia Fed, New Zealand Trade Balance, ECB Minutes, SARB Policy Announcement, Speeches from Fed's Kashkari & ECB's de Guindos, Supply from Spain & FranceRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are pressured across the board in a broader risk-off move after yesterday's Wall St. sell-offEurope not supported by the brief APAC respite on Shanghai's reopening updates, Euro Stoxx 50 -2.3%; ES -1.2%DXY is pressured as havens and antipodeans are bid on risk and fiscal/fundamental factors respectivelyDebt resumes its haven rally, with Bunds eclipsing 154.00 and USTs near 120.00Crude curtailed on this price action, but, off worst amid reports that China is considering buying Russian crudeLooking ahead, highlights include US IJC, Philadelphia Fed, New Zealand Trade Balance, ECB Minutes, SARB Policy Announcement, Speeches from Fed's Kashkari & ECB's de Guindos.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks followed suit to the mixed performance on Wall St amid a lack of fresh macro drivers.Kyiv is ready to hold a special round of negotiations in Mariupol without conditions, according to Reuters.European equity futures are indicative of a slightly higher open with Eurostoxx 50 +0.3% after the cash market closed higher by 1.7% yesterday.DXY sits just below 100.50, USD/JPY is back on a 128 handle, NZD is softer post-CPI.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ CPI (Final), US IJC & Philadelphia Fed, EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash), Speeches from Fed's Powell, ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Bailey & Mann, Supply from France & Spain, Earnings from Meggitt, Nestle, American Airlines, AT&T and Phillip Morris.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses and US futures are bolstered, ES +0.8%, with currency dynamics lifting EZ bourses and after-market earnings assisting, TSLA +7%DXY is pressured amid EUR advances following ECB's de Guindos saying a July hike is possible, also sparked noted debt downsideMore broadly, FX sees some divergence ahead of multiple Central Bank speakers and after various inflation releasesWTI and Brent are firmer, but off best levels, amid multiple Ukraine-Russia and China COVID developments, with the China restrictions seemingly set to remainRussian Defence Ministry says it has captured Mariupol, while the Kremlin says talks are ongoingLooking ahead, highlights include US IJC & Philadelphia Fed, EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash), Speeches from Fed's Powell, ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Bailey & Mann. Earnings from American Airlines, AT&T and Phillip Morris.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Employers lowered the educational requirements for certain jobs during the pandemic, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia — potentially signaling new opportunities for workers without a bachelor's degree. We spoke to Patrick Harker, the Philadelphia Fed’s president, about what the research can tell us about the economy. He also talked about whether Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resulting economic fallout could alter the Fed's approach about raising interest rates in March. The war in Ukraine has led to high wheat prices, which impact certain parts of the world more than others. Fed chair Jerome Powell testifies today.

Employers lowered the educational requirements for certain jobs during the pandemic, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia — potentially signaling new opportunities for workers without a bachelor's degree. We spoke to Patrick Harker, the Philadelphia Fed’s president, about what the research can tell us about the economy. He also talked about whether Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resulting economic fallout could alter the Fed's approach about raising interest rates in March. The war in Ukraine has led to high wheat prices, which impact certain parts of the world more than others. Fed chair Jerome Powell testifies today.

Oil prices continue to climb this morning. Global benchmark Brent crude is at $116 a barrel, which is a near 20% increase just this week. The price may go higher as the United States imposes the first export controls connected to Russia's energy sector. We discuss rate hikes coming in March and preview upcoming jobs numbers with Diane Swonk. Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker talks about the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its potential impact on what the Fed could do with interest rates.

Oil prices continue to climb this morning. Global benchmark Brent crude is at $116 a barrel, which is a near 20% increase just this week. The price may go higher as the United States imposes the first export controls connected to Russia's energy sector. We discuss rate hikes coming in March and preview upcoming jobs numbers with Diane Swonk. Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker talks about the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its potential impact on what the Fed could do with interest rates.

In this week's round up, Mark and I kick things off with some good old fashioned chart analysis. First off - credit where credit is due, I got these charts from the Bankless interview with Benjamin Cowen. Phenomenal episode, I highly recommend you check it out. We took a look at what appears to be lengthening cycles in crypto, diminishing returns of each cycle, and a general reduction in volatility. Next we went on to take a look at some economic data, mainly the Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Index and Initial Jobless Claims. Finally, we ended things on Gemini's $400 million raise led by none other than Mark himself. To hear what he has to say, give the episode a listen. -- Ledger: This episode is brought to you by Ledger, your secure gateway to buy, exchange and grow your crypto. Combine a Ledger hardware wallet with the Ledger Live app to access all your favorite crypto services & DApps from one place. All that with the best security. Visit https://onthemargin.link/ledger and make your crypto journey easier and safer. -- Coinbase Prime: On The Margin is supported by Coinbase Prime, an integrated solution that provides advanced multi-venue trading, custody, and prime services for institutions. For more information go to https://onthemargin.link/coinbase --- On the Margin is brought to you by Blockworks, a financial media brand delivering breaking news and premium insights about digital assets to millions of investors. For more content like this, subscribe to Blockworks' free daily newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

On June 17th, 2021, Steve Grzanich shares today’s potential market drivers First time claims for unemployment Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for June Index for leading economic indicators for May

On May 20th, 2021, Steve Grzanich shares today’s potential market drivers Weekly unemployment Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index

In today's show, you will learn what it means when retail sales jump but the amount on credit cards dumps, how the dollar is suggesting import prices are peaking, why last week's drop in unemployment claims isn't enough, what the New York and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing reports say about the regional manufacturing sectors, how capacity utilization isn't showing inflation, and why cash piling up in banks is bullish for bonds. #BondBullish #DollarBullish #RetailSales Have a question for the show? From time to time I answer your questions. E-mail Steve or, send him a message on Facebook, LinkedIn or Twitter. http://stevenvanmetre.com/about/contact/ https://www.facebook.com/svmfin/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/steven-van-metre-b4a08b182/ https://twitter.com/MetreSteven https://stevenvanmetre.com/portfolio-shield/ Portfolio Shield™, and The Macro Show™, and Momentum Timer Pro™ are unregistered trademarks of Steven Van Metre Financial. Watermark Artwork by Jasmine Miller Twitter: @jazcreative The content of this video is provided as educational information only and is not intended to provide investment or other advice. This material is not to be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security, financial product, instrument, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. This video was prepared by Steven Van Metre in my own personal capacity. The opinions expressed in this video are my own and do not reflect the view of Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. or Steven Van Metre Financial.

Artificial intelligence and machine learning are playing an increasingly important role in everyday life and across different economic activities. From day-to-day operations and the real economy, to financial services and economic stability, regulators, policy-makers and economic actors must consider a multiplicity of factors to adjust to a changing economy. Patrick Harker, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, joins OMFIF's David Marsh to discuss macroeconomic developments, transforming financial systems, the future of work, and regulatory challenges. Music: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.If you enjoy this podcast, can we ask you to forward this episode to one person who you think, might like listening.Today we lead with news that some of the bounceback data in June coming through is better than expected.But not all. The latest weekly update shows that American workers filed 1.5 mln new unemployment benefit claims and 20.5 mln people received jobless benefits. Both levels are higher than expected and only marginally lower than the previous week, so the pace of layoffs remains high but does seem to be stabilising.Another survey shows that the richest quarter of Americans have cut their consumer spending more than any other income group during the pandemic and much of that cut was at the expense of low-income wage earners. Small businesses in wealthier regions laid off 65% of their low-wage earners, while in the lowest-rent areas, fewer than 30% lost their jobs.Very much more positive however is the latest factory survey from the Philadelphia Fed (+27). It is an impressive result, quite unexpected (-23). Just about every sub-category in this survey improved, and especially new orders (+17). The only laggard was the employment aspect (-4).Another very positive set of data comes from north of the border. The Canadian ADP employment survey also surprised with expanding jobs data in May (+208,000) when another decline was expected (-280,000). It is actually the largest monthly gain since this survey began in 2012. But is only making back less than 10% of the jobs lost in April.Foreign direct investment into China rose +4.2% from a year earlier in May, marking the second straight monthly increase, although the growth pace slowed significantly from +8.6% in April. In the first five months of this year, foreign direct investment into China was down -6.2% year-on-year.The Indonesian central bank cut is policy rate again, the third such cut this year taking it down to 4.25%. It also lowered its growth forecast to less than 2%.The English central bank reviewed rates as well but didn't cut them. Instead it threw an additional NZ$385 bln of QE at their economic problems.Australia shed -227,000 jobs in May, with the unemployment rate reaching 7.1% and its highest in twenty years. Part-timers have been especially hard hit. When the losses in April are added, it means the country has now lost more than -824,000 jobs over the past two months. Worse, their participation rate is falling sharply, meaning another -420,000 left the labour market since March.Overnight European equity markets fell a bit more than -0.5%. They followed Shanghai and Hong Kong yesterday which were both virtually unchanged. Tokyo however came in -0.5% lower. This morning the S&P500 is down -0.4%, unable to find any positive direction in late trade. Both the ASX200 and the NZX50 lost almost -1% in trade yesterday.Shares in German payments company Wirecard have fallen more than -60% after the firm said its auditor had raised questions over cash balances worth NZ$3.3 bln or a quarter of what it is supposed to have. Wirecard is no minnow - it is a component of the German DAX30.[Advert]Now, we have an urgent message for you today.If you value this report and want to ensure to is available in the future, we ask you go on to interest.co.nz and show that support by clicking on the “Become a Supporter” button at the top of any page.If you have already done so, our grateful thanks. But we urgently need more readers and listeners to join in.Good journalism and independent financial news coverage is an expensive business and we need your support to keep doing what we do. The latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 8,400,300 which is up +139,000 in a day and still a fast rising pace. Global deaths now exceed 450,000.A quarter of all cases globally are in the US, which is up +25,400 since this time yesterday to 2,173,800. That is the highest daily rise since mid-April. The spread into 'Red' states is quickening. But 'Blue' state California is also a hotspot. US deaths now exceed 118,000.In Australia, there have been 7391 cases (+21 since yesterday), 102 deaths (unchanged) and a recovery rate of just over 93% (unchanged). 14 people are in hospital there (-2) with 2 in ICU (-1). There are now 412 active cases in Australia (+14).The UST 10yr yield is down -5 bps today at 0.69%. The gold price is marginally lower, down -US$3 to US$1,724/oz.Oil prices are marginally firmer today, now just under US$39/bbl in the US. The Brent price is just under US$41.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is a little softer this morning, down -½c at 64.3 USc. On the cross rates we are a little firmer at 93.9 AUc. Against the euro we are marginally softer at 57.4 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 has slipped to 69.3.The bitcoin price is still in its quiet phase, unchanged at US$9,420 today.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.If you are one of the many new listeners who have joined us recently, welcome – we appreciate your company.Get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. We will do this again, on Monday. 

At an event at the NYU Stern School of Business, Christopher Giancarlo, former CFTC Chairman and co-founder of the Digital Dollar Foundation, discusses his proposal for a US central bank digital currency (CBDC), and how that fits into the broader geopolitical environment. We cover: Why he has focused on pushing for a US digital dollar after leaving the CFTC How a US CBDC would be different from other stablecoins How the proposal is designed to build off of the traditional banking infrastructure What pilot programs would look like How a digital dollar would foster economic inclusion even though using the digital dollar requires owning a smartphone How it would handle privacy How the network would be secured Whether the US is falling behind China in terms of central bank digital currencies and blockchain exploration Whether Libra will be a proxy for the digital dollar How COVID-19 has affected the discourse around a digital dollar Whether the election will affect the future of the digital dollar Unchained is hiring! Check out our job listing for a remote editorial assistant here! https://unchainedpodcast.com/seeking-remote-editorial-assistant/ Thank you to our sponsors!  Crypto.com: https://crypto.com Kelman Law: https://crypto.law   Stellar: https://www.stellar.org Episode links:  Chris Giancarlo: https://twitter.com/giancarlo Digital Dollar Project : https://www.digitaldollarproject.org Previous Unchained interview with Chris: https://unchainedpodcast.com/christopher-giancarlo-on-the-craziness-of-becoming-crypto-dad/  Chris and Daniel Gorfine's WSJ op-ed advocating for a digital dollar: https://www.wsj.com/articles/we-sent-a-man-to-the-moon-we-can-send-the-dollar-to-cyberspace-11571179923 Digital dollars in stimulus bills — March: https://www.coindesk.com/house-stimulus-bills-envision-digital-dollar-to-ease-coronavirus-recession  April: https://www.coindesk.com/digital-dollar-reintroduced-by-us-lawmakers-in-latest-stimulus-bill Pew Research on smartphone adoption: https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/ FDIC survey on the unbanked and underbanked: https://www.fdic.gov/householdsurvey/2017/2017execsumm.pdf Banks keeping some of customers' stimulus money: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/business/stimulus-paychecks-garnish-banks.html Why a digital dollar is politically more feasible at this moment than before: https://www.coindesk.com/the-overton-window-opens-for-a-digital-dollar Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown also proposes digital dollar: https://www.coindesk.com/us-senate-floats-digital-dollar-bill-after-house-scrubs-term-from-coronavirus-relief-plan  Philadelphia Fed paper: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2020/wp20-19.pdf Receptivity in Congress to the idea of a digital dollar: https://www.coindesk.com/how-a-flurry-of-digital-dollar-proposals-made-it-to-congress Libra white paper: https://libra.org/en-US/white-paper/#cover-letter Congressional hearing on using FedAccounts and for stimulus: https://financialservices.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=406612

At an event at the NYU Stern School of Business, Christopher Giancarlo, former CFTC Chairman and co-founder of the Digital Dollar Foundation, discusses his proposal for a US central bank digital currency (CBDC), and how that fits into the broader geopolitical environment. We cover: Why he has focused on pushing for a US digital dollar after leaving the CFTC How a US CBDC would be different from other stablecoins How the proposal is designed to build off of the traditional banking infrastructure What pilot programs would look like How a digital dollar would foster economic inclusion even though using the digital dollar requires owning a smartphone How it would handle privacy How the network would be secured Whether the US is falling behind China in terms of central bank digital currencies and blockchain exploration Whether Libra will be a proxy for the digital dollar How COVID-19 has affected the discourse around a digital dollar Whether the election will affect the future of the digital dollar Thank you to our sponsors!  Crypto.com: https://crypto.com Kelman Law: https://crypto.law   Stellar: https://www.stellar.org Episode links:  Chris Giancarlo: https://twitter.com/giancarlo Digital Dollar Project : https://www.digitaldollarproject.org Previous Unchained interview with Chris: https://unchainedpodcast.com/christopher-giancarlo-on-the-craziness-of-becoming-crypto-dad/  Chris and Daniel Gorfine’s WSJ op-ed advocating for a digital dollar: https://www.wsj.com/articles/we-sent-a-man-to-the-moon-we-can-send-the-dollar-to-cyberspace-11571179923 Digital dollars in stimulus bills — March: https://www.coindesk.com/house-stimulus-bills-envision-digital-dollar-to-ease-coronavirus-recession  April: https://www.coindesk.com/digital-dollar-reintroduced-by-us-lawmakers-in-latest-stimulus-bill Pew Research on smartphone adoption: https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/ FDIC survey on the unbanked and underbanked: https://www.fdic.gov/householdsurvey/2017/2017execsumm.pdf Banks keeping some of customers’ stimulus money: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/business/stimulus-paychecks-garnish-banks.html Why a digital dollar is politically more feasible at this moment than before: https://www.coindesk.com/the-overton-window-opens-for-a-digital-dollar Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown also proposes digital dollar: https://www.coindesk.com/us-senate-floats-digital-dollar-bill-after-house-scrubs-term-from-coronavirus-relief-plan  Philadelphia Fed paper: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2020/wp20-19.pdf Receptivity in Congress to the idea of a digital dollar: https://www.coindesk.com/how-a-flurry-of-digital-dollar-proposals-made-it-to-congress Libra white paper: https://libra.org/en-US/white-paper/#cover-letter Congressional hearing on using FedAccounts and for stimulus: https://financialservices.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=406612

Friday 21st February 2020 Asian currencies have born the brunt of rising concerns over the spread of COVID-19 beyond the Chinese mainland. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril describes how the Japanese Yen has been one of the hardest hit, whilst the risk-off sentiment added t other fall in the Aussie dollar after yesterday’s rising unemployment rate. Can we now expect a rate cut from the RBA sooner rather than later? The US meanwhile sales along nicely, with a strong read from the Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook. Today we get a swathe of PMI’s, a slew of Fed speakers and the Democratic Caucus at the weekend.

Friday 17th January 2020 US equities rose higher still today, on the back of the latest US retail numbers. NAB’s Gavin Friend says trading is still cautious – it’s not a ‘fear of missing out’ scenario. The data is supporting the cautious optimism, with a particularly strong result in the Philadelphia Fed survey knocking well above market expectation. In Australia yesterday the value of home loans surprised on the upside, whilst today the manufacturing PMIs for New Zealand will be of interest and UK retail sales will be watched by the Bank of England, who have been making increasing sounds of moving to a rate-cut in the short term. There’s also discussion about surprise rate cuts in South Africa and Turkey.

Patrick Harker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and a former Wharton dean, joins Mukul Pandya of Knowledge@Wharton to discuss the July 2019 decrease of the Federal Interest Rate and the current state of the US economy in this special podcast.Philadelphia Fed on Wharton Business Radio airs as a special series of interviews on Business Radio, SiriusXM Channel 132. This podcast is brought to you by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Business Radio, powered by the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia president Patrick Harker discusses interest rate policies recession fears and whether central banks are ready to introduce a stablecoin cyrptocurrency among other issues. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia president Patrick Harker discusses interest rate policies, recession fears and whether central banks are ready to introduce a stablecoin cyrptocurrency, among other issues.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia president Patrick Harker discusses interest rate policies, recession fears and whether central banks are ready to introduce a stablecoin cyrptocurrency, among other issues.

Keith Wardrip, Community Development Research Manager at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, discusses his research on opportunity occupations — employment opportunities for those without a bachelor's degree — on Behind the Markets, hosted by Jeremy Schwartz. You can find the report here: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/community-development/publications/special-reports/identifying_opportunity_occupations/opportunity_occupations_revisited.pdf?la=en.You can check out our special podcast collaboration with the Philadelphia Fed here: https://shows.pippa.io/philadelphia-fed-on-whartonPhiladelphia Fed on Wharton Business Radio airs as a special series of interviews on Business Radio, SiriusXM Channel 132. This podcast is brought to you by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Business Radio, powered by the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Keith Wardrip, Community Development Research Manager at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, discusses his research on opportunity occupations — employment opportunities for those without a bachelor's degree — on Behind the Markets, hosted by Jeremy Schwartz. You can find the report here: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/community-development/publications/special-reports/identifying_opportunity_occupations/opportunity_occupations_revisited.pdf?la=en.Philadelphia Fed on Wharton Business Radio airs as a special series of interviews on Business Radio, SiriusXM Channel 132. This podcast is brought to you by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Business Radio, powered by the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Patrick Harker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and a former Wharton dean, joins Wharton finance professor Richard J. Herring in a fireside chat at the “Fintech and the New Financial Landscape” conference hosted by the Philadelphia Fed. President Harker shared his views on the potential of fintech, the missing factor in cryptocurrencies — and why going to a four-year college might not be the path for everyone.You can watch a video of their conversation here: http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/philadelphia-feds-patrick-harker-how-fintech-will-shape-the-future/Philadelphia Fed on Wharton Business Radio airs as a special series of interviews on Business Radio, SiriusXM Channel 132. This podcast is brought to you by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Business Radio, powered by the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Patrick Harker president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia discusses how fintech will impact the banking system with Wharton finance professor Richard J. Herring. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Vice President and Economist Leonard Nakamura discusses his research on the challenge of valuing free digital media and its impact on U.S. gross domestic product on Behind the Markets, hosted by Jeremy Schwartz and Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel.Philadelphia Fed on Wharton Business Radio airs as a special series of interviews on Business Radio, SiriusXM Channel 132. This podcast is brought to you by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Business Radio, powered by the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

"Rob Black & Your Money" - Radio Show May 17 - KDOW 1220 AM (7a-9a) Rob Black talks about interest rates, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, the Royal Wedding, Wells Fargo, Michael Cohen, and chats with The Real Estate Report Tony Mendes about buying a second home.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rob Black talks about interest rates, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, the Royal Wedding, Wells Fargo, Michael Cohen, and chats with The Real Estate Report Tony Mendes about buying a second home.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Charles Plosser, the former Philadelphia Fed president, says central banks around the world have overreached and Randal Quarles's nomination would be good for the Fed board. Prior to that, Howard Ward, Gabelli Funds' CIO of growth equities, says we're in a nominal 3 percent GDP world. David Shulkin, U.S. Secretary of Veterans Affairs, says the V.A. has invested heavily in cybersecurity. Doug Bandow, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, says North Korea's regime is evil, but not crazy. Finally, Timothy O'Brien, Bloomberg View's executive editor, says Trump is his own first and last counsel. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com

Charles Plosser, the former Philadelphia Fed president, says central banks around the world have overreached and Randal Quarles's nomination would be good for the Fed board. Prior to that, Howard Ward, Gabelli Funds' CIO of growth equities, says we're in a nominal 3 percent GDP world. David Shulkin, U.S. Secretary of Veterans Affairs, says the V.A. has invested heavily in cybersecurity. Doug Bandow, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, says North Korea's regime is evil, but not crazy. Finally, Timothy O'Brien, Bloomberg View's executive editor, says Trump is his own first and last counsel.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker sat down with American Banker to talk fintech, financial regulation and the economy.

(Bloomberg) -- Taking Stock with Kathleen Hays and Pimm Fox. GUEST: FED IN FOCUS- Charles Plosser, former President of the Philadelphia Fed, weighs in on the FOMC meeting and rate decision, and what lies ahead for the economy.

(Bloomberg) -- Taking Stock with Kathleen Hays and Pimm Fox.u0010u0010GUEST:u0010Charles Plosser, former President of the Philadelphia Fed, weighs in on the FOMC meeting and rate decision.

Interest rates were finally increased after many years of threats/promises by the Fed. Economic numbers coming out of the Philadelphia Fed are decidedly negative and portend more economic weakness. Oil prices are going lower and there's stories of tankers full of the stuff not being able to find a will storage site. This is bad news for the oil patch, the banks and junk bond holders. The bond issuers will be defaulting en masse and this could lead to another banking crisis or a stock market collapse. Corporate profits were down 5% last year and could fall more this year. Combined with the imploding junk bond market there could be a major market collapse in early 2016. So keep your eyes open and be ready for the opportunities that will inevitably arise.

 Yesterday, the Federal Reserve finally met market expectations and increased interest rates to .25% Actually, the official rate was 0 - .25 and now, the official rate is .25 to .5 The actual rate was always in the middle between zero and .25 Assuming the Fed tries to keep the rate closer to .25 than .5, the actual increase in rates could be less than 25 basis points The initial reaction to this rate hike is to proclaim the end of the era of "cheap money" .25% is still cheap money.  Alan Greenspan never went below 1%. Some people are saying "Peter Schiff was wrong" because the Fed did raise rates Actually, in a recent podcast I noted that the Fed changed their narrative away from "data dependent" to an expression of faith in the economy, opening the door to a symbolic rate hike unsupported by data I was alone throughout the year believing that the Fed would not raise rates prior to this change in narrative The Fed was afraid that to not raise rates this year, it would be a vote of "no confidence" in the economy Ultimately, the Fed felt that even though the data didn't justify it, they had to raise rates because of psychological damage to the markets If the economy were really sound, we would not need Janet Yellen to express confidence in the economy - a strong economy creates its own confidence. We don't need propaganda in the form of a symbolic rate hike The Fed did not even have the last recession in their forecast until we were well into the recession, so who cares about the Fed's level of confidence? In an earlier podcast, I referred to Ben Bernanke's comment that he felt he was a representative of the administration Janet Yellen is creating a sense of confidence in the economy for the same reason The Fed is now pretending that we will have more rate hikes in the future, forecasting 4 more hikes during 2016 I believe the economy is not strong enough to accommodate these rate hikes and neither does Janet Yellen The ultimate irony is the data that came out the morning of the rate hike Industrial Production: they were forecasting a drop of .2, which is still bad, instead, we got a drop of .6 The PMI Manufacturing Index was the lowest in many years, 51.3 down from 52.6 More bad news: The Philadelphia Fed last month showed an increase of 1.9, so 1.2 was forcasted - instead we dropped 5.9 These numbers show an economy that is decelerating If you look at a chart, these numbers are about to crash even lower These numbers are flashing recession, recession, recession If you're a Keynsenian, the prescription for the condition this economy has would be stimulus, not an interest rates The air was coming out of this bubble anyway, all the Fed did was increase the hole for the air to come out The market was up just before the hike, which was interpreted as a green light to raise rates. I said in an earlier podcast that that would be a mistake, because the market would then tank, and that is what happened today Transports have been the weakest of all, despite oil prices We continue to see weakness in the high-yield bond market as the air is coming out of that bubble It is probable that the stock market is going to get a lot worse between now and the time the Fed is supposed to hike rates again But the problem for the Fed now, is if the market starts to tank now, they can't do anything until the jobs numbers begin to show weakness Janet Yellen actually referred to this move as "ahead of the curve", meaning that if she waited any longer, she would overshoot on her objectives: One was unemployment.  How can that get too low? Especially with so many people out of the labor market, is she worried about the economy creating too many jobs? She is talking about the outdated Phillips Curve, which states that too many people with jobs creates inflation Then she said we might overshoot on GDP - meaning that if interest rates didn't go up, the GDP would be too strong.

Moe wraps up this week with analysis on the US economy and debt situation. Please call 1-800-388-9700 for a free copy of various reports from this week's shows.