The Dividend Cafe

Market Overview and Insights on Private Credit – December 11, 2025 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides an update on the financial markets from the Newport Beach office of The Bahnsen Group. The DOW closed up by 646 points, while the S&P had modest gains and NASDAQ saw a slight decline. Szytel discusses the rotation from growth to value sectors, the recent actions of the Federal Reserve, and their impacts on the market. He also covers upcoming deregulatory changes and tax cuts, a weakening labor market, and concerns about overstated employment numbers. Additionally, he answers a listener question about payment-in-kind (PIK) in private credit, explaining the risks and how such loans are typically managed. He concludes by emphasizing the past three years' market performance and the potential for slower growth ahead. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:14 Stock Market Performance 01:13 Bond Market Insights 01:35 Federal Reserve Actions and Economic Impact 03:15 Corporate Profits and Economic Outlook 04:10 Private Credit and Payment in Kind (PIK) 06:18 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Post-FOMC Meeting Market Reaction and Economic Outlook - December 10, 2023 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group in Newport Beach discusses the market's reactions to the Federal Reserve's recent actions. On December 10th, 2023, the Federal Reserve concluded its FOMC meeting, cutting rates by 25 basis points and adding to its balance sheet, which boosted both the stock and bond markets. The Dow closed up 497 points, with the S&P and Nasdaq also showing gains. Szytel explains the significance of the steepening yield curve, which signals positive economic growth, and reviews the Federal Reserve's future interest rate expectations, unemployment, inflation, and GDP projections. The episode also addresses an op-ed by Muhammad Al Arian regarding the restructuring of The Fed. Overall, the episode provides an optimistic outlook on short-term risk assets and the economy. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe 00:16 Federal Reserve Meeting Insights 00:48 Market Reactions and Performance 01:25 Understanding Yield Curves 03:28 Economic Projections and Fed Actions 04:30 Op-Ed Discussion and Final Thoughts 05:17 Conclusion and Upcoming Topics Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Recap and Insights on Upcoming Fed Decisions In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group discusses the market activity on December 9th, highlighting slight declines in both the stock and bond markets. He reviews the latest economic indicators, including the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and the JOLTS job openings report. Szytel also provides insights into the upcoming Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, the potential interest rate changes, and the implications for the labor market. Additionally, he touches on the investment potential in the utility sector and the importance of selecting the right companies within high-growth sectors like AI, using historical examples from the natural gas fracking industry and fiber optics. The episode concludes with a reminder of the importance of bottom-up investment fundamentals and dividend reliability. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe 00:16 Market Overview: Stocks and Bonds 00:48 Fed's Interest Rate Decision 01:51 Economic Data Insights 03:10 Labor Market Analysis 04:17 Interest Rates and Balance Sheet 04:50 Investment in Utilities 06:16 Investment Risks and Strategies 08:16 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44NZ88R Market Volatility, Small Cap Performance, and Corporate Takeovers: A Comprehensive Market Update In this episode, we cover the Fed's anticipated rate cut, the current state of credit spreads, and the mixed performance of sectors with a focus on semiconductors. We analyze the significant increase in negative earnings within the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index post-financial crisis and highlight the importance of selectivity in small cap investing. We also discuss President Zelensky's visit to London, Netflix's bid to acquire Warner Brothers Discovery, and the White House's concerns about the deal. Other topics include the executive order on AI regulation, China's compliance with new trade agreements, and the state of the U.S. labor market. We provide insights into New York City's office vacancy rates, the Bank of Japan's expected rate hike, and recent fluctuations in oil prices and infrastructure stocks. Additional information is available on DivaidendCafe.com, including a discussion on the yen carry trade and its potential future impact on stocks. 00:00 Market Overview and Rate Cuts 00:30 Equity Volatility and Sector Rotation 01:07 Small Cap Index Performance 02:10 Global News Highlights 02:38 Corporate News and Mergers 03:42 Public Policy and AI Regulation 04:43 Economic Indicators and Trade 05:04 Labor Market Analysis 07:07 Commercial Real Estate Insights 08:00 Global Financial Movements 08:57 Weekly Recap and Closing Remarks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48ZY57l Bitcoin Analysis: The Bahnsen Group's Perspective on Cryptocurrency Investing David Bahnsen hosts the latest episode of Dividend Cafe, where he takes a deep dive into Bitcoin and cryptocurrency investments. Bahnsen discusses the historical volatility of Bitcoin, citing various significant drops over the past decade and its speculative nature. He argues that Bitcoin's extreme fluctuations make it unsuitable as a medium of exchange or a stable store of value. Bahnsen compares Bitcoin to productive assets, explaining why The Bahnsen Group focuses on investments rooted in inherent productivity and usefulness. He emphasizes that while Bitcoin may serve as a trading and speculative vehicle for some, it does not align with The Bahnsen Group's investment philosophy aimed at long-term wealth creation. 00:00 Introduction to Today's Topic: Bitcoin 01:18 Historical Context and Stability Issues 02:54 Bitcoin's Volatility and Market Behavior 04:27 Comparing Bitcoin to Traditional Investments 07:18 The Sociological Phenomenon of Bitcoin 17:50 Blockchain Technology vs. Bitcoin 19:16 Government Regulation and Bitcoin's Future 22:21 The Bahnsen Group's Investment Philosophy 26:54 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Update and Fed Policy Developments - December 2023 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from West Palm Beach provides an update on the market movements and insights into current Federal Reserve policies. The S&P, NASDAQ, and Dow all experienced a relatively flat day with minor fluctuations. Szytel discusses the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction from $9 trillion to $6.5 trillion through quantitative tightening and anticipates a possible shift towards quantitative easing due to emerging liquidity stresses. The episode also covers the likelihood of Kevin Hassett being announced as the next Fed Chair, details on labor market metrics, and the recent modest increase in interest rates. With the upcoming December FOMC meeting, further rate cuts are expected. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:41 Federal Reserve Policies and Speculations 01:16 Quantitative Tightening and Balance Sheet Insights 02:16 Liquidity and Future Projections 04:36 Economic Indicators and Labor Market 05:36 Year-End Market Performance and Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Dividend Cafe: December 3rd Market Update and Economic Insights In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group provides an update on stock market performance, noting gains in major indices and a rotation from growth sectors to value-oriented sectors. He discusses the impact of a Wall Street Journal article about the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair, current Fed policies, and interest rate expectations. The episode also covers recent economic data, including a significant miss in ADP payroll numbers and better-than-expected ISM services data. Brian answers a listener question about asset allocation and rebalancing, emphasizing a customized, goals-based approach over a one-size-fits-all strategy. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:42 Fed Chair Speculations and Market Reactions 02:20 Economic Indicators and Market Impact 03:53 Ask TBG: Asset Allocation Insights 05:45 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Recap and Insights: AI Competition, Private Credit Risks, and Consumer Sentiment In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from West Palm Beach provides a market recap for Tuesday, December 2nd. He discusses recent stock market trends, including the Thanksgiving rally and subsequent fluctuations. Key points include the Fed's quiet period and high likelihood of a rate cut, Bitcoin's volatility, and upcoming economic data releases. Brian also examines consumer sentiment versus actual spending on Black Friday, and the fierce competition between major AI platforms like ChatGPT and Google Gemini. Moreover, he addresses the risks and misconceptions associated with private credit investments, explaining their higher yields and inherent risks compared to traditional fixed-income assets. 00:00 Introduction and Market Recap 00:13 Thanksgiving Week Market Performance 00:43 Current Market Movements and Fed Updates 01:12 Economic Data and Consumer Sentiment 02:05 Artificial Intelligence in the Market 03:29 Private Credit: Risks and Rewards 06:04 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Xtosgp Market Updates, Bitcoin Correlations, and Policy Discussions: Post-Thanksgiving Report In this edition of Dividend Cafe, we recap the recent market activity and its fluctuations following Thanksgiving. Key points include the Dow's drop of 427 points, mixed performance across major indices, and a significant contrast between top-performing and worst-performing sectors. We also highlight Bitcoin's recent correlation breakdown with the Nasdaq, the potential economic impact of Japanese bond yields on cryptocurrencies, and the ongoing foreign appetite for U.S. financial markets. Additionally, the episode covers updates on the Russia-Ukraine war, Affordable Care Act subsidies, significant upcoming Supreme Court hearings, and notable figures in the Federal Reserve's future. For detailed charts and more information, visit DividendCafe.com. 00:00 Welcome and Market Recap 01:05 Market Indices Performance 02:41 Foreign Appetite for US Securities 03:51 Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Insights 05:51 Geopolitical and Policy Updates 07:40 Economic Indicators and Housing Market 08:38 Federal Reserve and Interest Rates 09:46 Energy Sector and Predictions 10:12 Conclusion and Upcoming Topics Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/48jNR1e Thanksgiving Reflections: A Heartfelt Tribute to The Bahnsen Group In this special Thanksgiving edition of Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen, Managing Partner of The Bahnsen Group, shares his gratitude for the various teams and individuals who contribute to the firm's success. Bahnsen highlights the hard work of the content department, the growth and achievements of the tax, planning, risk, and operations departments, and the essential role of the leadership team. He also expresses deep personal thanks to his wife Jolene, the legacy of his late father, and the trust of their valued clients. The episode serves as a heartfelt reflection on the dedication and commitment of The Bahnsen Group during this season of gratitude. 00:00 Welcome to the Thanksgiving Edition 01:12 Personal Reflections on Thanksgiving 02:08 Content Creation and Media Team 04:04 Growth of the Tax Department 05:35 Planning and Risk Management 07:58 Business Administration and Operations 10:35 Investment Solutions Department 13:20 Leadership and Personal Gratitude 16:35 Honoring My Father's Legacy 17:56 Gratitude for Our Clients 19:36 Closing Remarks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4oXqLUW Monday Dividend Cafe: Market Rally and Upcoming Thanksgiving Special In this episode of 'Monday Dividend Cafe,' we cover the market's uptick amid a holiday-shortened week, highlighting a strong performance in sectors like communication services driven by Google, and less favorable outcomes for consumer staples. The bond market also continued its rally despite risks in equities. The discussion includes updates on economic policies, including anticipated Fed rate cuts, a potential Ukraine-Russia settlement, and the state of healthcare stocks. Additionally, there's chatter around the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs and President Trump's hints about its potential outcome. David briefly touches on energy sector dynamics and concludes with a personal moment recounting a memorable Dallas Cowboys victory. 00:00 Introduction and Housekeeping 00:42 Market Recap: A Positive Day 01:55 Sector Performance Highlights 02:25 Risk Assets and Valuation Concerns 06:18 High Yield and Technicals 06:49 Top News Stories: Russia-Ukraine Deal 07:28 Public Policy Updates 09:03 Economic Indicators and Fed Talk 10:57 Energy Sector Overview 11:16 Conclusion and Thanksgiving Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4oSvRlk Broad Economic Overview: Key Insights on Jobs, Housing, and Consumer Spending In this edition of the Friday Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen delves into a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic factors, exploring the current state of the job market, housing sector, and consumer spending. David emphasizes the importance of objective and apolitical economic analysis by discussing the recent trends in job creation, a softening housing market, and consumer spending patterns. The episode also critiques the use of consumer confidence as an economic indicator and underscores the importance of production in driving economic growth. Several data points and charts are presented, providing a nuanced view of an economy that is not strongly growing but also not on the brink of collapse. 00:00 Introduction and Overview 00:20 The AI Bubble and Investment Markets 01:22 Macroeconomic Commentary 04:49 Jobs Market Analysis 12:21 Housing Market Insights 18:26 Consumer Spending and Sentiment 21:56 GDP Growth and Economic Outlook 25:03 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Reflections and Sector Analysis: November 20 Edition In today's episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Sztyel from Newport Beach, California, provides insights from a down day in the markets despite an initially strong opening. He discusses anticipated earnings reports from major AI chip manufacturers and tech companies, highlighting the market reaction and investor sentiment. Brian explains the observed rotation from growth to value stocks and the current low weighting of defensives. He also addresses questions about the private credit market, noting its significant growth and some stresses, but reassures that systemic risk appears minimal. Economic updates include better than expected non-farm payroll data, an uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.4%, and positive figures from the Philly Fed Index and existing home sales. Brian concludes by encouraging listeners to reach out with questions. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:04 AI and Technology Sector Insights 00:58 Growth vs. Value Stocks 02:25 Private Credit Market Analysis 04:08 Economic Data Highlights 05:17 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Recap and Insights: AI Chip Earnings and Economic Data Delays In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group provides a market update for November 19th. After four negative trading days, the markets saw slight gains with notable attention on the largest AI chip company's positive earnings report. Concerns are discussed about the sustainability of high capital expenditures among trillion-dollar market cap companies amidst stretched valuations. Limited economic data due to government delays is also addressed, along with comments on the FOMC minutes and the unlikelihood of a December rate cut. Brian clarifies The Bahnsen Group's stance on market seasonality, emphasizing a focus on fundamentals over time-of-year influences. The episode wraps up with a look forward to upcoming economic data reports. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:26 AI Chip Company Earnings and Market Impact 01:36 Economic Calendar and Fed Decisions 02:45 Market Seasonality and Investment Strategy 03:30 Final Thoughts and Upcoming Data Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Decline and Economic Data Updates - November 18, 2023 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel reports from Newport Beach, California, on a market downturn with the DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq all experiencing declines. He discusses the ongoing shift from growth to value stocks and highlights the significant market valuations of some major companies. Despite poor economic data reporting due to government delays, there is a noted cooling in the labor market and mixed signals in housing market confidence. Fed officials continue to focus on inflation concerns, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in December. Brian also explains valuation metrics like revenue multiples and PE ratios to help understand market valuations. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:43 High Valuation Concerns 01:46 Economic Data and Labor Market 02:43 Home Builder Confidence and Fed Updates 03:41 Understanding Financial Terminology 05:08 Conclusion and Sign Off- Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JTHQ36 Monday Market Recap and Economic Insights In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel steps in for David, who is attending meetings in Boston. Brian provides a detailed market recap for Monday, November 17th. The DOW fell 557 points, while the Nasdaq and S&P both dropped about 0.8 to 0.9%. He discusses market shifts towards defensive stocks, notable dips in sectors like cryptocurrencies and quantum computing, and the overall volatility levels. He also touches on tariffs' impacts, proposed easing of capital requirements for banks, and better-than-expected Empire State Manufacturing Index numbers. Brian emphasizes the focus on bottom-up fundamentals in investment strategies amidst unpredictable macroeconomic conditions and notes upcoming economic data releases. 00:00 Introduction and Market Recap 00:52 Sector Performance and Market Trends 02:31 Impact of Tariffs and Economic Policies 03:37 Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators 05:11 AI Narrative and Investment Strategy 07:07 Upcoming Economic Data and Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LGaAg6 AI Investing Bubble: Unpacking the Risks and Realities In this week's episode of Dividend Cafe, host David Bahnsen discusses the potential investment bubble surrounding artificial intelligence (AI). Bahnsen explores the phenomenon that started with the rise of ChatGPT in late 2022 and analyzes its implications for investors. He cautions against the euphoria-driven market, emphasizing the risks of high volatility and speculative investments in AI companies like Nvidia and Oracle. Bahnsen underscores the importance of adhering to sound investment principles and avoiding the pitfalls of chasing short-term gains in the overheated AI sector. 00:00 Introduction to This Week's Topic 01:06 The AI Bubble: A Growing Concern 06:37 Mathematical Fundamentals and Market Volatility 13:34 Historical Context and Future Implications 28:02 Conclusion and Investment Principles Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Downturn and Fed Uncertainty: Analyzing the Financial Trends In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the significant downturn in both stocks and bonds on November 13th, with major indices and the 10-year yield showing notable movements. Brian analyzes the influence of hawkish comments from multiple Federal Reserve speakers and the implications of the recent government shutdown's end on market behavior. He also touches on the rotation from growth to value stocks, the potential impacts of tax refunds, and the importance of investing in intrinsic value. Additionally, Brian addresses concerns about AI fakes and stock market manipulation, reassuring that despite the presence of bad actors, the market remains investible and efficient. 00:00 Market Overview: A Down Day 00:33 Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance 01:24 Government Shutdown and Market Reaction 02:24 Rotation from Growth to Value 03:39 Tax Policy and Economic Stimulus 04:50 AI Fakes and Market Efficiency 05:46 Conclusion and Viewer Engagement Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Market Recap: November 12 - Tech to Value Rotation Continues In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a daily market recap for Wednesday, November 12. He discusses the recent trends in the stock market, noting a continued rotation from tech and AI growth stocks to more value-oriented sectors. The DOW experienced its third consecutive day of gains, while the S&P also slightly increased, and the Nasdaq declined. Brian highlights the outperformance of the equal-weighted S&P over the market cap-weighted version. He also compares the performance of the 20-year Treasury ETF (TLT) with Bitcoin since the previous year. Additionally, Sitel touches on the likelihood of upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with some officials advocating for a 50 basis point cut. He concludes by addressing the minimal market impact of the recent government shutdown and answering viewer questions regarding its potential effects on various sectors. 00:00 Introduction and Market Recap 00:27 Sector Performance and Investment Strategies 02:13 Economic Data and Government Updates 03:16 Federal Reserve Insights 04:36 Impact of Government Shutdown 05:53 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Recap and Economic Insights - November 11, 2025 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian zyitel reviews the market performance and key economic updates for Tuesday, November 11, 2025. The Dow closed up 559 points, driven by positive sentiment around the impending government reopening. Brian discusses the historical impact of government shutdowns on the market and the expected release of crucial economic data like CPI and jobless claims. He addresses a question about evaluating growth stocks against benchmarks and emphasizes the importance of long-term planning over short-term performance. The episode also includes a note on Veterans Day and the bond market closure. 00:00 Introduction and Market Recap 00:34 Government Reopening and Market Implications 01:32 Economic Data and Market Predictions 03:37 Q&A: Benchmarking Growth Stocks 05:02 Closing Remarks and Veterans Day Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://sqdc.st/s/TtvWulc Monday Market Insights: Government Shutdown, Market Rally, and Policy Updates In this Monday edition of the Dividend Cafe, the discussion centers around the potential end of the government shutdown, with eight Democrats crossing the aisle to vote with Republicans. The NASDAQ experienced a significant rally, recovering losses from the previous week's downturn. Various market sectors' performances are analyzed, including the notable decline in consumer staples and defensive sectors. Key public policy updates include the Senate's vote to end the shutdown, a proposed 50-year mortgage backed by the government, and potential equity stakes by Fannie and Freddie in tech companies. President Trump's suggestion of a $2,000 stimulus check and significant job cuts in October are also covered. The episode concludes with insights from the Bahnsen Group's offsite and upcoming speaking engagements. 00:00 Introduction and Government Shutdown Update 01:15 Market Rally and Sector Performance 03:03 Earnings and Market Disparities 05:36 Senate Vote and Public Policy 08:54 Supreme Court and Tariffs 10:28 Housing and Mortgage Updates 11:55 Economic Indicators and Fed Outlook 16:03 Conclusion and Upcoming Events Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47ogHOD US-China Trade Deal Updates & Insights from The Bahnsen Group Annual Retreat In this week's episode of Dividend Cafe, host David Bahnsen reports from The Bahnsen Group's annual retreat in Dallas, Texas. He highlights the team's dedication to client experience and shares updates on the significant US-China trade deal. The discussion covers recent agreements between the two nations, including tariff reductions, market commitments, and cooperation plans. Bahnsen reflects on how market discipline has influenced policy decisions and gives insights on the potential economic impacts. Looking ahead, he hints at a forthcoming evaluation of the AI CapEx bubble burst in the next episode. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe 00:06 The Importance of Our Annual Retreat 01:41 US-China Trade Deal Overview 05:06 Key Elements of the Trade Agreement 10:18 Implications and Future Prospects 18:43 Conclusion and Upcoming Topics Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/43Ga1ZR**** Monday Market Recap and Historical Insights - Dividend Cafe with David Bahnsen In this Monday edition of Dividend Cafe, host David Bahnsen covers a variety of market topics. Bahnsen urges viewers to check out the Friday edition of Dividend Cafe for an in-depth analysis of private markets. He then discusses the day's market fluctuations, highlighting significant movements in the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq. A fascinating chart on market cap and AI CapEx is recommended for further insights. Bahnsen also shares a historical market trend, noting that positive first 10 months often lead to favorable outcomes in the final two months of the year. Key news includes Kimberly Clark's $48.7 billion acquisition of Ken View amid controversy involving Tylenol and autism. Bahnsen briefly touches on public policy matters, upcoming Supreme Court hearings on tariffs, and off-cycle election indicators. He announces no podcasts during the week due to an offsite team meeting in Dallas, but daily blurbs will continue. The episode concludes with a quick overview of market performance, including the 10-year bond yield and sector highlights. 00:00 Introduction and Friday Recap 00:27 Today's Market Overview 01:35 AI CapEx and Market Valuations 03:30 Historical Market Trends 04:53 Sector Performance and Big News 06:53 Public Policy and Upcoming Events 08:53 Upcoming Schedule and Conclusion Kimberly-Clark buys Kenvue - https://apnews.com/article/kimberly-clark-kenvue-tylenol-98d5fd39c12b25524e3188da2e840436 NVIDIA/WSJ Chart Mention - https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/global-stocks-markets-dow-news-11-03-2025-83c207f7 Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4qxLxMp Demystifying Private Markets: Risks, Rewards, and Systemic Implications In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host David Bahnsen, Chief Investment Officer at The Bahnsen Group, delves into the complexities of private markets, focusing on private credit and private equity. Bahnsen addresses the widespread discussions around the potential opportunities and risks in these markets, arguing that both extreme optimism and pessimism are misguided. He explains the inherent risks associated with higher returns and emphasizes the importance of understanding these investments' systemic implications, even for those not directly invested. Bahnsen also explores the historical growth of private markets, the exit bottleneck in private equity, and the potential for systemic risk. Emphasizing the necessity of prudence in investment and manager selection, he advocates for awareness of liquidity issues and proper diversification. This episode aims to provide a nuanced perspective on private markets, debunking myths and highlighting the real stakes involved. 00:00 Introduction to This Week's Dividend Cafe 00:40 Understanding Private Markets: Credit and Equity 03:07 The Risks and Realities of Private Credit 07:18 Private Credit vs. Traditional Banking 12:13 The Growth of Private Equity 18:53 Current Challenges in Private Markets 29:18 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Recap: Market Decline and In-Depth Analysis of Financial Trends In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a market recap for October 30th, detailing a downturn with the Dow closing down 109 points, the S&P down 1%, and the Nasdaq down 1.5%. Key factors include interest rate increases post-Fed meeting and disappointing earnings from some social media companies. Brian discusses benchmarks for investment performance, advocating for goal-based evaluation over market comparison. He also covers the midstream energy sector, emphasizing a strategic approach using active ETFs to optimize returns and tax efficiency. Additionally, Brian touches on a temporary trade truce between the US and China, projecting long-term benefits for both economies through gradual decoupling. The episode concludes with a brief on market headwinds due to earnings reports and rising interest rates. 00:00 Introduction and Market Recap 00:30 Interest Rates and Fed Policy 01:26 Choosing the Right Benchmark 03:20 Midstream Energy Investments 05:20 US-China Trade Agreement 06:42 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Reactions to Fed Announcement & The Rise of 401(k) Plans In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the market's reaction to the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut and the end of the quantitative tightening program. Despite an initial market gain, comments from Fed Chair Powell about a December rate cut not being guaranteed led to a sell-off. Szytel provides insights into the likelihood of future rate cuts and the current state of economic data amid a government shutdown. Additionally, Sitel addresses a viewer question about the relationship between the rise of 401(k) plans and the popularity of index funds, explaining that while they are related, the primary reason for the shift from pension plans to 401(k) plans is corporate governance. The episode closes with an overview of the day's market volatility and encourages listeners to continue submitting questions. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:11 Fed's Interest Rate Cut and Market Reaction 02:04 Economic Data and Fed's Decision Details 02:52 The Rise of 401(k) Plans and Index Funds 05:07 Conclusion and Upcoming Updates Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Recap and Key Economic Catalysts – October 28th In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel provides a market recap, noting positive performance with the Dow closing up 161 points, S&P up by a quarter percent, and Nasdaq up eight-tenths of a percent. Key drivers include the US-China trade deal, expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the FOMC, potential end to quantitative tightening, a government shutdown, and strong earnings reports. Brian also addresses an 'Ask TBG' question about investment decision mistakes, emphasizing continuous learning and client goal achievement. Finally, he highlights economic indicators like improved consumer confidence, Richmond Fed Index, and better-than-expected Case-Shiller home price index. 00:00 Introduction and Market Recap 00:40 Key Market Drivers 01:06 US-China Trade Deal Insights 01:34 Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators 02:33 Government Shutdown Impact 03:12 Earnings Season Highlights 03:51 Stimulus and Tax Package Effects 04:50 Investment Committee Reflections 06:28 Economic Calendar Updates 07:12 Conclusion and Listener Engagement Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/49mduQP Dividend Cafe: Market Recap and Economic Insights - Monday Edition In the Monday edition of Dividend Cafe, host David Bahnsen provides a thorough market recap from their Newport Beach studio. He highlights key market movements, with the DOW closing up 337 points, the S&P rising by 1.25%, and the NASDAQ up 1.75%. Boson also discusses the potential China trade deal and its impacts on the market, as well as the recent CPI report showing inflation metrics. Additionally, he touches on public policy developments concerning tariffs with Canada and Mexico and explores the implications of growing U.S. stock market capitalization. The episode wraps up with insights into housing market trends, mortgage rates, and Federal Reserve actions expected later in the week. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe Monday Edition 00:51 Market Recap: A Positive Day on Wall Street 02:20 Economic Insights: CPI Report Analysis 04:20 Public Policy and Trade Updates 04:57 US Stock Market Growth 06:25 Housing and Mortgage Market Trends 08:27 Federal Reserve and Oil Market Update 08:55 Against Doomsday: Positive Economic Indicators 09:54 Upcoming Events and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47Ly2Ab Understanding Index Funds and Their Evolution: A Comprehensive Analysis In this episode of the Friday Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen, Chief Investment Officer of The Bahnsen Group, delves into the topic of index funds and their evolution over the years. He discusses the impact of index funds on the investment landscape, comparing their performance and risk profile to other investment approaches like dividend growth investing. David examines the significant growth in index fund ownership, changes in the composition of the S&P 500, and the implications of market capitalization-weighted indices. He also addresses common concerns, such as market liquidity, valuation risks, and the role of financial advisors in tailoring portfolios to individual needs. The discussion is aimed at providing a deeper understanding of the current dynamics in indexing and its relevance to both investors and financial advisors. 00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:17 The Evolution of Indexing 00:59 Indexing vs. Dividend Growth Investing 03:39 Understanding Market Beta 07:27 The Role of Advisors and Fees 13:06 The Growth of S&P 500 Index Funds 22:35 Systemic Risks and Market Dynamics 31:13 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Updates and Global Economic Impacts - October 23rd In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides an update on market movements, including modest gains in the DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ. The episode discusses the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil companies and the EU's ban on LNG imports from Russia, aimed at limiting funding for Russia's war efforts in Ukraine. The volatility in the energy markets and a slight increase in US treasury yields are also covered. Additionally, Brian addresses concerns about China's selling of US treasuries, its gold purchases, and the implications for the dollar's value. The episode concludes with a brief mention of upcoming economic reports, particularly the CPI report and initial jobless claims. 00:00 Market Update: October 23rd 00:25 Impact of Sanctions on Russian Oil Companies 01:46 China's Financial Moves: Selling US Treasuries and Buying Gold 03:32 The Dollar's Stability and Global Currency Dynamics 04:59 Upcoming Economic Reports and Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Recap and Economic Insights - October 22, 2025 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel reports from West Palm Beach, FL, on a downturn in the markets. The Dow closed down 0.7%, S&P down 0.6%, and Nasdaq down about 1%, largely driven by missed earnings in tech. Gold saw another decline following a significant drop the previous day. Key topics include US-China trade tensions, the overvaluation of certain stocks, and the stable but uninspiring economic indicators like oil prices and 10-year Treasury yields. Brian discusses potential market reactions to upcoming trade negotiations and questions the historical constancy of AI-driven productivity gains. Additionally, he touches on recent data regarding architectural billings and previews upcoming economic reports, including existing home sales and jobless claims. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:53 US-China Trade Relations Impact 01:20 Market Valuations and Predictions 02:10 Oil and Energy Market Insights 03:43 Economic Indicators and AI Discussion 05:25 Upcoming Economic Data 05:57 Conclusion and Recap Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Insights and AI Speculations: October 21st Update In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from West Palm Beach offers a market recap for October 21st, noting a mixed day with the DOW closing at a record high. He delves into the performance of various indices, and discusses significant movements in gold and crypto prices, highlighting a notable 6% drop in gold. Seitel also shares insights on artificial intelligence, echoing caution by comparing current AI investment exuberance to the 1990s internet bubble. Additionally, he critiques optimistic revenue projections for OpenAI and their dependencies on capital markets for funding. Concluding with commentary on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, Szytel emphasizes the importance of market-adjusted rates over static ones. He encourages listeners to reach out with questions and stay informed with future updates from Dividend Cafe. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:44 Gold and Crypto Market Insights 01:18 Artificial Intelligence: Expectations vs. Reality 02:48 OpenAI's Lofty Promises and Financial Realities 04:53 Investment Strategies and Market Perspectives 05:53 The Fed and Interest Rate Discussion 06:52 Conclusion and Viewer Engagement Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4htuMxK Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4nbfO0v Understanding the Impact of AI on Jobs: A Deep Dive In this Friday edition of Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen, managing partner at The Bahnsen Group, explores the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on jobs and the economy. Recording live from New York City before heading to Nashville, Bahnsen reflects on the intensive research and writing process for this episode. He addresses both the historical precedents set by the Industrial and Digital Revolutions and dispels fears about AI-induced mass job displacements. Instead, he emphasizes that AI will augment human labor by creating new job opportunities and enhancing productivity. Bahnsen argues for the importance of human-centric skills like decision-making, wisdom, and empathy, which cannot be replaced by machines. This episode offers a nuanced perspective on the future of work in the AI era, ultimately promoting an optimistic outlook on technological advancements and their potential benefits. 00:00 Introduction and Weekly Update 00:20 The Writing Process of Dividend Cafe 01:32 Impact of AI on Jobs 04:39 AI's Current and Future Job Displacement 11:53 Historical Context: Industrial and Digital Revolutions 20:10 Economic Principles and Human Needs 26:02 The Irreplaceable Human Element 31:06 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Join Brian Szytel on today's Thursday Dividend Cafe as he navigates a modestly down day in the market. The DOW closed down 301 points, S&P by six-tenths of a percent, and Nasdaq by 50 basis points. With rising volatility back to May levels, Brian explains the factors behind the recent market movements, including larger bankruptcies and regional bank charge-offs. Despite mixed manufacturing data, real estate showed better-than-expected performance. Learn about the importance of credit spreads and their relevance to market stability, and get insights on upcoming Supreme Court discussions on tariffs. This episode provides comprehensive analysis to enhance your understanding of economic life and dividends in your portfolio. 00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:22 Market Recap: Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq Performance 00:38 Interest Rates and Volatility Insights 01:40 Economic Calendar Highlights 02:19 Real Estate Market Update 03:21 Understanding Credit Spreads 05:45 US-China Trade Relations Impact 06:10 Tariffs and Supreme Court Discussion 07:02 Conclusion and Final Thoughts 07:14 Disclaimer and Legal Information Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Recap & Insights on AI Investing - October 15 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian provides a market recap for October 15, noting slight changes in major indices and highlighting strong earnings in the financial sector. A positive trend in the yield curve is discussed alongside economic updates, including a stronger-than-expected Empire State Manufacturing Index and a stable Beige Book report from The Fed. Additionally, the episode explores the political influence on private sector companies, particularly defense contractors, and differentiates between the current AI investment situation and the 2008 financial crisis. Listeners are encouraged to read the latest Dividend Cafe for deeper insights into investment strategies. 00:00 Introduction and Tax Filing Reminder 00:23 Market Recap: Daily Performance 01:22 Economic Indicators and Reports 02:24 Government and Private Sector Dynamics 03:47 Artificial Intelligence: Bubble or Not? 05:05 Investment Wisdom and Strategies 06:18 Current Market Sentiments and Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Tuesday Midweek Market Update: US-China Trade Tensions and Earnings Insights In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a midweek market update for Tuesday, October 14th. The day saw sideways trading following a significant sell-off on Friday and a rally on Monday, predominantly driven by ongoing US-China trade negotiations concerning China's export controls on rare earth minerals. Brian discusses China's dominance in rare earth minerals and the potential long-term response from the US, including strategic reserves and new mining developments. He also touches on Jerome Powell's comments on inflation and job markets, noting little change from the last FOMC meeting. Additionally, Brian highlights strong Q2 earnings reports, especially from major banks, as a positive market signal. He concludes with a perspective on gold as an inflation hedge versus the S&P 500, emphasizing the latter's superior long-term performance. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:17 US-China Trade Tensions and Rare Earth Minerals 02:12 Jerome Powell's Comments on Inflation and Jobs 02:31 Q2 Earnings Reports and Market Reactions 02:56 Small Business Optimism and Gold Market Insights 04:54 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4q8nNy3 In this week's Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen dives into the latest market movements on a somewhat irregular Columbus Day with both stock market rallies and bank closures. Key highlights include the release of Israeli hostages held since October 2023, President Trump's upcoming meeting with China's President Xi, and the nuances of U.S.-China trade relations. David also breaks down the latest market performances, discuss the bond market, and preview the upcoming earnings season. Additionally, David touchs on the consistency and preferences in delivering Dividend Cafe content across different mediums. Get ready for a detailed wrap-up of today's economic events and market reactions. 00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:51 Market Summary and Key Events 01:00 Global Political Developments 01:33 US-China Trade Relations 05:37 Market Performance Recap 07:30 Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators 08:55 Personal Preferences and Media Formats 10:47 Upcoming Events and Closing Remarks 12:05 Legal Disclaimers and Notices Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3KCGbir Unpacking the AI Revolution: Investment Philosophies and Realities In this episode of Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen, Chief Investment Officer at The Bahnsen Group, explores the current excitement surrounding AI investments. Bahnsen contrasts contrasting perspectives from investment experts and delves into the cyclical nature of AI-driven market trends. He emphasizes the importance of adhering to a disciplined investment philosophy, particularly dividend growth investing, even amid the AI craze. Through an analysis of market dynamics and speculative risks, David outlines three potential scenarios for AI investments and underscores the need for consistency and prudence in managing client capital. 00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:05 Contrasting Views on AI Revolution 02:56 Current AI Market Dynamics 04:41 The Circularity Problem in AI Investments 06:00 Soros' Reflexivity Theory and AI 14:56 Three Potential Outcomes for AI Investments 19:58 The Bahnsen Group's Investment Philosophy 27:35 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Update: Earnings Shifts Focus from Political Headlines In this episode of Dividend Cafe on Thursday, October 9th, Brian Szytel provides a market update. The DOW dropped by 243 points, the S&P fell by a quarter of a percent, while the Nasdaq remained mostly flat. The 10-year yield increased slightly by a basis point. The episode highlights the impact of delayed economic data due to the ongoing government shutdown. Brian discusses the encouraging shift in focus from political to earnings reports, with notable companies showing strong earnings. He emphasizes the importance of fundamental analysis and contextualizes current market performance by comparing it to historical rebounds. Brian also touches on the health of municipal pensions and the attractiveness of municipal bonds in high tax brackets. He concludes by encouraging listener questions and wishing them a good weekend. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:31 Economic Data and Government Shutdown 00:49 Earnings Reports and Market Fundamentals 02:02 Historical Market Context and Predictions 03:04 Focus on Cash Flows and Dividend Income 04:22 Municipal Bond Market Insights 05:46 Conclusion and Viewer Engagement Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Recap and Insights: Midstream Energy and Fed Policy In this October 8th episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a market update, noting that the Dow was flat, while the S&P and Nasdaq showed gains. Key takeaways include the release of the September FOMC meeting minutes, indicating a general consensus on rate cuts despite some divergence in opinion. The episode also delves into the resurgence of M&A activity, IPOs, and positive earning sentiments as significant market drivers. There's a discussion on the midstream energy sector, highlighting its strong performance and the impact of recent tax reforms. Lastly, Sitel addresses a viewer question regarding the seeming contradiction between declining job numbers and a well-performing economy. 00:00 Welcome and Market Overview 00:45 FOMC Meeting Insights 02:08 Market Drivers and Trends 04:06 Midstream Energy Sector Analysis 05:12 Natural Gas and Data Centers 08:58 Economic Indicators and Job Market 10:48 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Update and Geopolitical Insights: October 7th Analysis In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides an update on the financial markets as of Tuesday, October 7th. He covers the recent performance of the DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq, highlighting a moderate sell-off in technology and value names. He also discusses the recent government shutdown impacting economic data release and provides insights on various Fed governors' positions on inflation and monetary policy. Additionally, the episode delves into significant geopolitical topics, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict's impact on energy prices, evolving US-China relations, and the increasing risks related to maritime shipments. Lastly, Brian addresses a listener's question regarding the health and implications of companies going private. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 01:09 Federal Reserve Updates 02:51 Geopolitical Insights 03:43 US-China Relations and Global Trade 05:36 Private Companies and Market Liquidity 06:28 Conclusion and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4mVyUro Market Analysis and Economic Insights: The Monday Edition David Bahnsen, host from Newport Beach, California, presents the Monday edition of Dividend Cafe. He starts with a brief mention of sports events, then discusses market activity, noting minor changes in the DOW and gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. David highlights the fifth consecutive month of market gains since September and evaluates historical performance of the S&P 500 after such streaks, concluding there's no clear prediction for the sixth month. He further examines market volatility in midterm election years, correlations with political events, and economic indicators like 10-year bond yields, ISM services sector performance, auto sales, and the Case Shiller home price index. David also reports on optimistic developments in Gaza and Japan's election of its first female Prime Minister. He concludes by touching on the impact of U.S. tariff decisions on the pharmaceutical sector, aid for soybean farmers, and anticipated actions from the Federal Reserve. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 01:26 Historical Market Trends and Midterm Election Insights 04:53 Sector Performance and Global News 08:54 Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Updates 11:50 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3IQOTsJ Insights and Takeaways from a Week of Meetings in NYC In this week's Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen, managing partner and CIO at The Bahnsen Group, recaps key insights from a week of high-level meetings with asset management partners, hedge funds, and private market managers in New York City. Reflecting on the history of these annual gatherings, David discusses the intense debates about AI, the nuances of private market investing, the low conviction on the state of the economy, and the implications of tight credit spreads. Additionally, he delves into the interconnectedness of the data center theme and its broad economic impact. These themes will inspire future discussions in upcoming Dividend Cafe episodes. David also mentions potential portfolio adjustments based on these insights. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe 00:27 Recap of New York City Meetings 01:53 Historical Context and Evolution 05:45 Insights from Recent Meetings 10:34 Key Themes and Takeaways 17:35 Conclusion and Future Outlook Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Market Recap and Job Data Insights - October Update David Bahnsen provides a daily recap of the Dividend Cafe, highlighting that the market was up with the Dow gaining 79 points, the S&P up slightly by 4 points, and the NASDAQ increasing by 18 points. He mentions the bond market's rise with the 10-year yield down 2 basis points. Sector performances show materials leading while energy declines. Due to the government shutdown, key job reports were missing, but alternative data sources like the Chicago Federal Reserve jobless level and the Challenger Gray and Christmas report offer insights. The report indicates a 24% rise in layoffs year-to-date compared to 2024 and a low level of new hirings. David teases the upcoming Dividend Cafe episode with takeaways from the week's meetings and ends with a mention of supporting the Yankees. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 01:03 Sector Performance and Government Shutdown Impact 01:21 Job Market Data and Analysis 03:25 Upcoming Reports and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Highlights and Insights: September 30th Edition In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group office in New York City provides a concise market overview for Tuesday, September 30th. Despite a negative start, the market ended slightly positive with the DOW up by 82 points, S&P up by 27 points, and Nasdaq up by a third of a percent. Key economic updates include a slight increase in the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and better-than-expected new job openings, reflecting a balanced labor market. Brian also discusses the implications of current trade margins, tax rates, and capital expenditure focus on artificial intelligence. Additionally, he addresses a viewer question about proxy voting in index investments and the proactive approach The Bahnsen Group employs to ensure proper company stewardship. Brian wraps up by promising more economic insights in the next day's episode. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:38 Economic Calendar Highlights 00:59 Labor Market Insights 01:33 Consumer Confidence and Manager Meetings 01:59 Focus on Market Margins 02:50 Artificial Intelligence and Productivity 03:16 Proxy Voting and Index Investing 04:36 Conclusion and Next Steps Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3IxLuPt Dividend Cafe: Market Insights and Key Themes from Money Manager Week In this Monday edition of Dividend Cafe, the host discusses the extensive agenda of the first day of Money Manager Week. The conversation includes insights from several meetings with portfolio managers and asset management partners. The host shares an outlook on recent market movements, including the Dow's marginal increase, changes in bond yields, and performance in various stock sectors. Key points include discussions on market returns driven by earnings growth and multiple expansion, and the U.S.'s new tariff threats. Additionally, updates are provided on significant economic indicators like PCE inflation data, personal income, durable goods orders, and the housing market. The host also touches upon public policy topics such as potential government shutdowns and international trade deals. Lastly, the episode previews topics to be covered in the upcoming Friday edition of Dividend Cafe. 00:00 Introduction and Weekly Overview 01:45 Market Performance Recap 03:13 Sector Highlights and Oil Prices 04:07 Political and Economic News 06:44 Inflation and Economic Indicators 09:08 Housing Market Update 09:32 Federal Reserve and Interest Rates 10:34 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4muX6jX Analyzing America's Labor Market: Cyclical vs. Structural Issues In this week's Dividend Cafe, host David Bahnsen discusses the United States labor market, emphasizing the distinction between cyclical and structural challenges. He explores the unemployment data, noting historically low rates yet a significant rise in labor inactivity among prime working-age men. David highlights the supply-side issues in the labor market, including potential cultural factors and the impact of social safety nets, particularly disability benefits. He stresses the need for structural solutions and their implications on economic policy and the broader society. The episode concludes with a preview of next week's meetings with money management partners in New York. 00:00 Introduction and Upcoming Events 01:04 Current State of the Labor Market 02:59 Cyclical vs. Structural Economic Challenges 05:23 Unemployment Trends and Historical Context 06:28 The Supply Problem in the Labor Market 08:39 Inactivity Rates and Labor Participation 13:23 Cultural and Policy Factors Affecting Employment 20:20 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Recap and Economic Insights: Tariffs, Corporate Taxes, and Housing Trends In this episode of Dividend Cafe, dated Wednesday, September 24, host Brian Szytel provides a market recap from Newport Beach, California. The DOW dropped 171 points, S&P and Nasdaq declined by approximately 0.3%, and there was a minor increase in 10-year bond yields. Szytel shifts focus from daily market movements to broader economic themes, discussing the ongoing impacts of tariffs on the economy, corporate earnings, and tax revenues. He notes a $96 billion increase in tariff-related revenues but a $108 billion decrease in corporate tax receipts due to recent legislation. Additionally, there's an anticipated $150 billion in tax refunds, which could boost the economy. Szytel also addresses the performance disparity between U.S. and Canadian midstream energy stocks and the influence of corporate structures on investment returns. Finally, he reports a significant rise in new home sales and median home prices for August, while annual growth remains below inflation levels. 00:00 Introduction and Market Recap 00:58 The Impact of Tariffs on the Economy 02:51 Corporate Tax Revenue and Consumer Impact 04:29 Midstream Energy Stocks Analysis 06:04 Housing Market Update 06:42 Conclusion and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Insights and Economic Updates - Sep 23, 2025 On this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel reports from Newport Beach, covering down markets with the DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq all experiencing declines. There was a notable rotation between growth technology and value names, with interest rates moving lower. Flash PMI numbers for manufacturing and services were discussed, both indicating expansion but with slight drops from the previous month. The Richmond Fed Index saw a significant decline. The episode also delves into the AI investment story and its impact on valuations. Looking ahead, several economic indicators are expected, including new home sales data, durable goods, wholesale inventories, GDP estimates, and initial jobless claims. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:35 Interest Rates and Fed Expectations 01:38 Economic Indicators and PMI Numbers 02:33 AI Investment and Market Valuations 03:27 Passive Investing and Market Dynamics 04:23 Upcoming Economic Calendar 04:49 Conclusion and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4n9Rw7O Market Recap and Policy Insights: Navigating Nuances in the Economy In this episode of the Monday Dividend Cafe, host David Bahnsen provides a detailed analysis of the market activities and public policy updates. Broadcasting from Newport Beach, David discusses his recent travels and highlights from Dividend Cafe's special issue on The Fed. The episode delves into market movements, noting a tech sector surge led by Nvidia and the rare divergence of communication services. Other topics include a notable drop in rent prices, impacts of new tariffs on American businesses, and updates on public policy announcements such as the H1B visa fee and the U.S.-China TikTok deal. David also covers the anticipated government shutdown and its potential market implications, along with other significant economic indicators like oil prices and bond yields. The show wraps up with insights on the intertwining of monetary policy and government debt. 00:00 Introduction and Recent Travels 00:42 Market Recap: A Mixed Monday 01:54 Technology and Communication Services Performance 03:42 Small Cap vs. Large Cap Earnings Growth 06:12 Public Policy Updates: H1B Visas and TikTok Deal 09:10 Government Shutdown and Tariff Revenue 11:08 Housing Market Insights and Fed Policy 14:52 Conclusion and Upcoming Events Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com