The Dividend Cafe

Brian Szytel recaps a down market day driven by heightened Iran-U.S. tensions, higher oil prices (WTI up 5.9% near $90; Brent near $95), and rising interest rates (10-year around 4.79%), with the Dow down 419 points, S&P 500 down 0.7%, and Nasdaq down 1% as long-duration assets weakened. Economic data was slightly below forecasts but still constructive, including 7.2 million job openings and an ISM manufacturing PMI of 54.6 (eighth month above 50). He notes a gap between Fed dot-plot projections and futures-implied rate paths and emphasizes how unreliable rate forecasts can be given policy lags. Addressing questions about foreign Treasury selling (China and Japan), he explains foreign ownership has fluctuated historically and argues the core issue is U.S. deficit spending and rising debt costs, while the dollar's basket weight recently increased to 43%. 00:00 September Market Recap 00:24 Oil Spike and Rates Jump 01:13 Stocks Slide and Rotation 01:45 Economic Data Check 02:23 Fed Dots Versus Futures 03:07 Why Rate Forecasts Miss 04:11 Foreign Treasury Holders 06:06 Dollar Basket and Deficits 06:38 Wrap Up and Q&A Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cPVI9C David Bahnsen recaps Monday market action (Dow -374, S&P -0.33%, Nasdaq -0.12%; 10-year yield 4.76% up 3 bps), with energy leading on oil up 3% to about $86 and communication services lagging. He briefly shares midterm Senate race dynamics based on conversations with analysts, noting multiple paths for Democrats to win or lose the majority and warning against overconfidence in political predictions. Housing data showed August national median rent up 0.1% and down 0.8% year-over-year. He reviews Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech emphasizing price stability over employment, asserting a healthy labor market, concern about inflation, and a firm 2% target; markets raised implied September hike odds from ~38% to ~60% and to ~88% for a hike by year-end. Warsh discussed productivity questions (including AI), tight credit spreads, repudiated forward guidance with a “hall of mirrors” analogy, and delivered a cordial, potentially consensus-building tone. Bahnsen also notes a reported 35% U.S. government stake in a Venezuela oil venture with no short-term price impact, and that since 1950 September midterm years were evenly split between up and down markets. 00:00 Welcome and Agenda 01:05 Market Snapshot 02:13 Midterm Election Outlook 05:32 Housing and Rent Update 05:47 Jackson Hole Fed Takeaways 07:02 Rate Hike Odds and Targets 09:00 Forward Guidance and Consensus 11:25 Oil Moves and Venezuela Deal 12:06 September Midterm Seasonality 12:39 Closing and Next Episode Tease Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3UKOOfH David Bahnsen hosts the final Friday Dividend Cafe of August as a part two discussion tied to his new book, "Profit for the Profit," outlining the philosophy and application of dividend growth investing and responding to common critiques. He argues investors should seek returns from the underlying profit-making enterprise rather than sentiment-driven momentum, and that dividend growth helps focus on individual company profits and reduces emotional extremes. He addresses five objections: buybacks as superior capital return (unreliable, often suspended, and frequently offset by share issuance); dividends as tax-inefficient (many accounts aren't taxable, and dividends can improve behavior versus large embedded gains); dividends making companies “poorer” (stewardship and reinvestment choice matter); Berkshire not paying dividends (it receives dividends as a holding company); and dividends being only for retirees (starting earlier captures yield-on-cost compounding). 00:00 Welcome and Book Launch 03:08 Why Dividend Growth Matters 06:59 Common Critiques Overview 08:35 Buybacks Versus Dividends 13:17 Dividends and Taxes 15:32 Does Paying Dividends Reduce Value 19:31 The Berkshire Dividend Myth 20:57 Dividend Growth for Young Investors 24:19 Closing Thoughts and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps Thursday, August 27 markets, highlighting a major AI chip company's better-than-expected earnings and sharply higher 2028 guidance that lifted its stock 10% and pushed all three major indices higher, led by the Nasdaq, while bonds were flat with the 10-year at 4.67% and WTI oil up about 2% near $83. Economic updates included better-than-expected initial jobless claims (203k vs. 208k) and a wider July goods trade deficit of $118 billion, which he frames within the dollar-based reserve system. He also discusses US-Canada tariff tensions, arguing trade wars are zero-sum and ultimately hurt consumers and the economy. Addressing low S&P 500 dividend yield concerns, he says the decline is largely price-driven and maintains confidence in dividend growth investing focused on efficient capital use, including dividends and buybacks. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:24 AI Earnings Lift Markets 01:08 Rates Oil and Data 02:00 Trade Deficit Explained 03:02 Tariffs and Trade Wars 03:44 Dividend Yield Concerns 04:06 Why Dividends Still Win 05:40 Wrap Up and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel reports markets were essentially flat, while bonds moved as the 10-year yield rose 3 bps to 4.66; oil was slightly lower amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz deal talk. Economic data was mostly positive, but headline PCE was 0.3 vs 0.2 expected (3.7% YoY) while core PCE matched expectations at 0.2 (3.3% YoY), lifting Fed futures to a 40% chance of a September hike, which he views as largely a token 25 bps timing debate into Q4. He previews Jackson Hole and Fed hawk Warsh, focusing on potential balance-sheet discussion amid Treasury plans to issue more short-term debt and buy back about $4B long-term. A listener question prompts discussion of debt absorption, real yields, overindebtedness as deflationary, and currency depreciation as a release valve, citing Japan's weakening yen alongside rising JGB yields. Other data: durable goods 1.1% vs 0.5%, personal income 0.4% vs 0.2%, spending 0.2, and Q2 GDP unchanged at 1.5% with nominal GDP in the 6s. 00:00 Market Wrap Overview 00:25 Bonds Oil Geopolitics 00:55 PCE Inflation Update 01:38 Fed Hike Odds 02:06 Jackson Hole Treasury Moves 03:09 Balance Sheet QT Talk 04:04 Debt Issuance Explained 05:16 Japan Yen Release Valve 06:04 Other Economic Data 06:45 GDP And Closing Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a positive market day with the Dow up about 160 points, the S&P up roughly a third of a percent, and the Nasdaq up two-thirds as rates fell (10-year down seven basis points to 4.63) and oil dropped about 4.5%, aiding a tech and semiconductor/AI rotation. Economic data came in weaker, including slightly lower consumer confidence, softer new home sales, and a weaker Richmond Fed manufacturing index, reinforcing macro-driven moves. He notes the S&P is up about 12% YTD while earnings rose around 15–16%, leading to multiple contraction to about 18.8x forward earnings, though other valuation measures (EV/sales, Shiller CAPE, price-to-book/sales, and price-to-free-cash-flow) remain near historically overvalued levels. He also addresses declining prime-age male labor participation and argues immigration trends show little correlation, pointing instead to broader societal and economic factors. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:18 Market Rally Recap 00:41 Rates Oil and Data 01:50 Earnings and Multiples 02:44 Valuation Reality Check 03:28 Rotation to Value 04:04 Labor Force Demographics 06:13 Wrap Up and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3U6PdsL David Bahnsen opens from The Bahnsen Group's new Santa Barbara (Montecito) office, briefly recaps markets (Dow up ~0.25%, S&P down ~0.25%, Nasdaq down ~0.75% led by semiconductors; staples and financials up, tech down), and argues recent 10-year yield trading has been relatively range-bound. He focuses on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's announced 30-year Treasury buybacks ($2B now, potentially $4B in September) aimed at lowering long-end rates and term premium, likening it to an “Operation Twist” style intervention. Bahnsen says the move briefly lowered the 30-year yield about 10 bps but largely failed and is unlikely to work long term, criticizing government attempts to override market price discovery. He attributes higher long yields mainly to 30-year market illiquidity and new competing long-dated issuance from AI hyperscalers. He also covers U.S.-Canada tariff threats and retaliation, upcoming data/events (PCE, durable goods, Nvidia earnings, Warsh at Jackson Hole), WTI down ~2.5% near $85, and promotes his new book, “Profit from the Prophet,” releasing tomorrow. 00:00 Welcome From Montecito 01:06 Market Snapshot Today 01:38 Is Bond Volatility Overstated 02:58 Treasury Buyback Plan Explained 05:53 Did It Work Short Term 06:59 Can It Work Long Term 07:55 Why Long Yields Rose 12:05 Concerns About Intervention 13:52 Tariffs Canada Trade Spat 15:30 Week Ahead Data And Jackson Hole 16:27 Book Launch And Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cNKVg3 David Bahnsen hosts the Friday Dividend Cafe from Southern California and previews his new book, Profit from the Profit, releasing Tuesday, explaining it reflects the same message he has shared weekly since starting the commentary during the September 2008 financial crisis and later branding it Dividend Cafe in 2015. He outlines an investment philosophy focused on connecting client outcomes to real business profits and prioritizing what companies do over market sentiment, arguing dividend growth investing seeks sustainable returns from company cash flows and dividends rather than relying on investor psychology. Bahnsen explains why he discusses macro headlines even though he avoids frequent portfolio changes, emphasizing a bottom-up approach intended to be insulated from news. He recounts learning these lessons after the dot-com bust and highlights dividend growth's withdrawal and accumulation benefits, with upcoming book topics including taxes, volatility, and how investors should profit from profits via durable dividends. 00:00 Welcome and Book Launch 01:04 How Dividend Cafe Began 03:03 Core Philosophy of Profits 06:12 Sentiment Versus Fundamentals 09:22 News Commentary Without Trading 11:59 Personal Journey to Dividends 15:13 Key Themes From the New Book 17:01 Closing Thanks and Commitment Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel reviews a down day in markets (Dow -703, S&P -0.8%, Nasdaq -1%) and notes blue-chip weakness despite better-than-expected earnings, attributing it to consumer budget pressure from higher energy prices. He discusses yield-curve moves with short-end yields rising more than the long end after Treasury talk of buying back longer-dated bonds funded by T-bills, framing it largely as signaling with political relevance to midterms, gas prices, and housing affordability tied to long rates. He previews Jackson Hole as unlikely to deliver major Fed guidance and highlights strong data including the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (47.4 vs. 25 expected) and slightly better initial jobless claims (206 vs. 210). He answers a viewer question on inflation-proofing dividend returns, emphasizing dividend growth stocks whose rising cash flows can outpace inflation and compound over time. 00:00 Market Wrap Overview 00:21 Consumer Strain Signals 01:05 Yield Curve Moves 01:12 Treasury Buyback Politics 02:03 Jackson Hole Preview 02:26 Economic Data Highlights 03:06 Rates and Growth Context 03:33 Inflation Proof Dividends 04:06 Dividend Growth Math 05:03 Closing and Weekend Signoff Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel reviews a rotation-heavy market day with the Dow up 120 points, the S&P 500 up about 0.25%, and the Nasdaq slightly higher, as equal-weight outperformed cap-weighted amid big moves in pharma and some late earnings from tech/AI. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 7 bps to about 4.64%, following remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about shifting issuance toward the short end and using it to buy back some long-end debt; while the $20B buyback is small versus the $5T in 20–30 year Treasuries, the signal suggests an effort to lower long-term rates, potentially at odds with a Fed under Warsh aiming to let markets tighten or loosen. He also explains Japan's debt dynamics: while gross debt/GDP is ~240%, netting BOJ holdings and government assets brings it closer to ~80%, though higher JGB rates could raise debt-service costs and pressure the yen and BOJ policy. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:21 Market Close Recap 00:56 Treasury Buyback Shock 01:58 Fed Versus Treasury 03:46 Japan Debt Question 04:07 Net Debt Breakdown 05:06 Rates Yen and BOJ 06:11 Wrap Up and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a modest down day in markets with the Dow down 116 points, S&P 500 down 0.7%, and Nasdaq down 1.3%, noting S&P advancers outnumbered decliners and equal-weight outperformed cap-weighted in a rotation toward value; the 10-year Treasury closed near 4.71%. Economic data was mixed: pending home sales fell 2.3% versus an expected 0.6% gain, housing starts missed at 1.2 million versus 1.3 million expected, import prices fell 0.4% versus an expected 0.1% rise, and industrial production came in at 0.2% versus 0.4% expected. He argues media “doomsdayism” about higher long-end yields overlooks longer-term context, with 30-year yields around 5.3% being normal historically, while acknowledging deficit and debt risks and linking higher growth to higher yields. He also cautions that CEO insider buying is only one data point and not a standalone investment thesis, emphasizing bottom-up fundamental analysis. 00:00 Market Wrap Intro 01:04 Housing Data Misses 01:41 Inflation and Production 02:12 Bond Yields Perspective 02:49 Debt Fears and Growth 04:21 Insider Buying Reality 05:11 Fundamentals Over Tips 05:26 Closing and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bTEA2m From Charlottesville, host David Bahnsen recaps Monday market action: the Dow fell 273 points (~0.5%), the S&P 500 also about 0.5%, and the Nasdaq about 0.3%, with energy the only positive sector (up ~0.9%) and communication services the worst (down ~1.5%); the 10-year yield ended near 4.73% as the yield curve steepened. He highlights a chart showing AI-driven capital expenditures as an unprecedented share of GDP and discusses risks tied to funding costs. Citing Strategas, he notes steepening periods historically favor energy and financials over tech/communications. On politics, he sees polling and prediction markets suggesting a potential Democratic Senate flip, with Michigan pivotal, though Republicans may have a post–Labor Day spending edge. Economically, July retail sales fell 0.6%, while large tariff refunds may be supporting activity; he also flags housing affordability issues and previews Jackson Hole and upcoming Dividend Cafe content. 00:00 Welcome and Charlottesville 00:44 Market Close Recap 01:36 AI CapEx and GDP 02:59 Yield Curve Steepening 04:38 Senate Polling Outlook 07:36 Retail Sales and Tariff Refunds 09:06 Housing Affordability Chart 10:17 Fed Signals and Jackson Hole 11:39 Oil Prices and Rig Counts 12:26 Upcoming Shows and Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3U1KSqA David Bahnsen opens the Friday Dividend Cafe with a personal episode, reading a verbatim letter to his daughter Sadie ahead of moving her into the University of Virginia. He praises her discipline and independence in earning admission while still enjoying friendships and fun, and urges her not to “peak in college” but to use the next four years as a springboard for real life. His core advice is to make good decisions, seize the day, choose friends who encourage her, and handle professors she disagrees with without seeking conflict. He offers brief dating guidance, emphasizes personal agency and responsibility in shaping the kind of life one has, reminds her to practice thrift with credit cards and apps, and closes by affirming unconditional love and support from her parents and faith. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel reviews a broad market rally with the Dow up 69 points, the S&P 500 up two-thirds of a percent, and the Nasdaq up eight-tenths, alongside a modest bond rally as the 10-year yield fell three basis points to 4.65; WTI oil declined about 2.5% to $81. He highlights disinflationary data following a cooler CPI, with PPI coming in flat versus expectations of +0.2 and core PPI at 0.2 versus 0.3, putting core PPI at 4.2% year over year. Fed futures shifted, with September hike odds falling to about 32% from over 50% two days prior, while fundamentals remain strong despite valuation concerns near 22x. Weekly jobless claims were slightly worse at 209k versus 204k. He also discusses how inflation can erode sovereign debt burdens, risks of high debt-to-GDP (U.S. ~120%), and contrasts with Japan's 204% given domestic ownership of JGBs. 00:00 Market Rally Recap 00:46 Inflation Data Boost 01:55 Rates Expectations Shift 02:26 Valuations Versus Fundamentals 03:08 Weekly Claims And Geopolitics 03:33 Debt And Inflation Playbook 04:54 US Debt To GDP Context 05:35 Japan Comparison And Scale 06:24 Wrap Up And Next Episode Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

On Wednesday, August 12, Brian Szytel reports a quiet, mixed market day as July CPI came in essentially in line with expectations, leaving stocks and bonds little changed (Dow flat, S&P up 0.25%, Nasdaq up 0.5%, 10-year unchanged). Headline CPI rose 0.1% month over month to 3.4% year over year, while core CPI rose 0.2%, with medical care, airfares, used vehicles, and shelter contributing. Fed September hike odds fell from about 50% to 42% ahead of upcoming PPI data and Jackson Hole. He notes inflation is moving in the right direction slowly, while employment signals are mixed (unemployment 4.1%, weaker JOLTS and slightly missed nonfarm gains). Addressing a question on baby boomers supporting children, he says wealth transfers are not money creation and are a “closed loop,” though lower labor force participation and skills could hurt productivity. 00:00 Market Recap 00:33 CPI Breakdown 01:43 Fed Outlook Ahead 02:30 Jobs And Softening Data 03:01 Boomer Wealth Question 04:07 Is It Inflationary 05:05 Wrap Up From Florida Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Tuesday, August 11, describing a quiet, rudderless market session ahead of tomorrow's CPI, with the Dow and S&P down about 0.3% and the Nasdaq down about 0.6%, the 10-year near 4.69%, and oil up about 1%. He notes better-than-expected NFIB small business optimism (99.8 vs. 97) and slightly stronger existing home sales (~4.1 million) though housing remains frozen by higher rates. Szytel then analyzes U.S. federal debt growth across eras since 2000, citing debt CAGR of 7.3% (2000–2008), 8.0% (2008–2017), 9.5% (2017–2022), and 6.6% (2022–now), arguing debt still grows faster than nominal GDP even in strong times. He also clarifies U.S. tax revenue is 17% of GDP federally but 27% including state and local when comparing to Europe's ~50%. 00:00 Market Snapshot 00:56 Economic Data Check 01:39 Debt Growth Explained 02:53 Debt Eras Breakdown 04:03 Why It Still Matters 05:43 Tax Revenue Clarification 06:47 Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4hmEuE3 David Bahnsen hosts the Monday Dividend Cafe, recapping a quiet market day with the Dow down 60 points, the S&P essentially flat, and the Nasdaq down 32 bps, while noting rapid credit-spread tightening and the 10-year yield closing at 4.7%. Energy led sectors as oil rose over 5%, while REITs lagged; he highlights that most S&P 500 profit-margin expansion is concentrated in large tech rather than the broader index. PitchBook data show 33,600 unsold private-equity-owned companies globally, up year-to-date. On policy, the Senate recessed after voting to fund the government through mid-December, with no movement on a GOP budget blueprint or the CLARITY crypto bill. The key development was Friday's jobs report: 23,000 jobs lost, large downward revisions, and a lower unemployment rate driven by labor-force exits, reducing September hike odds to 50/50. Redfin data show widespread below-ask home sales, especially in Florida and Texas, and he addresses a listener question about faith references in his Friday piece. 00:00 Welcome and Agenda 00:24 Market Wrap and Rates 00:57 Credit Spreads and Risk 02:18 Sector Moves and Breadth 02:57 Margins and AI Divide 04:12 Private Equity Backlog 05:17 Friday Episode Plug 06:02 Middle East and Oil 06:28 Washington Policy Update 07:21 Jobs Report Shock 07:55 Fed Outlook After Jobs 08:43 Housing Price Softening 10:50 Energy and SPR Levels 11:29 Ask TBG Faith Question 13:49 Closing and Friday Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yXEhxi David Bahnsen argues investors focus too much on describing or predicting the economy and not enough on prescriptive first principles about what a market economy ought to be. He outlines 10 “non-negotiable” tenets of free enterprise: private property; the profit motive; division of labor; innovation and progress; capital and labor enhancing one another (rejecting a Marxian conflict view); laissez-faire as the default with prudent regulation; incentives matter; Hayek's knowledge problem and the dangers of centralized planning; an economics of addition and multiplication (growth) over subtraction and division (redistribution/zero-sum thinking), including how his firm invests; and “work” as the verb of economics that animates prosperity and service to others. He warns these principles are being treated as dispensable across modern political discourse, with consequences for portfolios. 00:00 Why Principles Matter 02:08 Ten Non Negotiables 03:11 Private Property 08:51 Profit Motive 10:29 Division of Labor 11:45 Innovation and Progress 13:25 Capital and Labor 15:32 Laissez Faire 16:32 Incentives Matter 18:05 Knowledge Problem 21:09 Growth Not Zero Sum 23:31 Work The Verb 25:19 Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a down Thursday market session (Dow -464, S&P -13, Nasdaq flat) amid ongoing rotation between tech and value, with the 10-year yield up 6 bps to 4.68%. Economic data showed initial jobless claims at 199k, a historically low level supportive of strong employment, and Q2 productivity rising 1.4% versus 0.6% expected, which he notes could be disinflationary over time alongside tools like AI. He then focuses on U.S. fiscal issues, citing a 7.7% fiscal gap versus much smaller gaps in Germany, France, and Italy, arguing Europe's lower gaps reflect much higher taxation (including ~20% VATs), which comes with slower growth and reduced competitiveness. He warns U.S. fiscal irresponsibility can reduce long-term growth, even if higher rates from “bond vigilantes” are uncertain in timing. 00:00 Market Recap 00:44 Jobs and Productivity Data 01:10 AI and Disinflation 01:53 US Fiscal Gap Focus 02:35 Europe Comparison and VAT 04:24 Debt and Interest Rates 05:39 Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

On Wednesday, August 5, Brian Szytel recaps a mixed market day: the Dow rose 263 points while the S&P fell 12 and the Nasdaq dropped about 0.8%, with financials, healthcare, and staples leading as tech lagged after the prior day's momentum rally. He says markets are increasingly desensitized to the war and are more supported by fundamentals, highlighting Q2 earnings where 61% of companies have reported, 86% beat EPS (highest in five years), and 77% beat revenue. Economic data included a weaker ADP private payrolls print (44k vs. 75k consensus) and ISM services roughly in line at 54.1. He answers a question on why the Fed doesn't let rates float, outlining the Fed's evolution from lender of last resort to open market operations, yield curve control, and rate targeting, arguing reserve-currency status and global interconnectedness make free-floating impractical now. 00:00 Market Recap Mixed Session 00:53 Hormuz Headlines vs Fundamentals 01:56 Q2 Earnings Strength 03:14 Today's Economic Data 03:52 Should Rates Float Freely 04:20 Fed History and Evolution 05:41 Reserve Currency Reality 06:24 Wrap Up and Tomorrow Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

On August 4, Brian Szytel recaps a massive cross-asset rally as markets price hopes of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz: oil fell 6% to $75, the 10-year yield dropped 7 bps to 4.61%, and stocks and bonds rose (Dow +907, S&P +1.8%, Nasdaq +2.6% led by semis/AI). He notes the market has become desensitized to Middle East risk and remains skewed upward with major indexes up 12.5%–14% YTD, but highlights unusually violent, bifurcated single-stock moves around earnings as investors struggle to discount AI impacts amid accounting and borrowing stresses. He warns leverage amplifies drawdowns, citing July deleveraging and a 4:1-levered AI hedge fund collapsing after a 67% drawdown. Economic data: job openings 7.3M (in line/slightly low), factory orders -0.3% vs +0.3% expected, trade deficit $73.3B. He answers a viewer question on inflation, explaining the Fed can influence money supply via its balance sheet but can't directly control velocity, relying on multiple tools including interest on reserves, and references efforts to shift narratives back toward market-set pricing. 00:00 Market Rally Recap 00:16 Oil Rates And Geopolitics 01:50 Year To Date Performance 02:10 Wild Stock Reactions 02:56 AI Accounting And Volatility 03:33 Leverage And Hedge Funds 04:41 Economic Data Check 05:26 Fed Money Supply Question 05:57 How The Fed Tools Work 07:47 Wrap Up And Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yUosr7 David Bahnsen reviews a “bizarre” July in which long-term yields rose, the Iran ceasefire/MOU collapsed, semiconductors fell sharply, and the yen hit multi-decade lows—yet the S&P 500 finished flat with improved breadth—and notes a strong early-August rally led by mega-cap tech while oil fell and energy dipped. He highlights massive hyperscaler capital expenditures and the key market questions around ROI, timing, financing, and systemic exposure. Bahnsen discusses shifting Iran headlines, policy items including the Todd Blanche AG nomination, the low odds of the Save Act and another reconciliation bill, Michigan's Senate primary dynamics, and a multi-state lawsuit over Section 301 tariff rationale. He covers Q2 real GDP at 1.5%, stronger July ISM manufacturing, elevated mortgage rates, Fed chair Warsh and balance-sheet effects, Treasury's reported yen buying, and midstream/MLP performance. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:23 July Market Recap 02:22 Monday Rally Snapshot 03:04 Big Tech Capex Questions 05:03 Iran Headlines and Oil 05:39 Washington Policy Update 07:50 GDP and ISM Readouts 09:01 Rates and Housing Impact 09:49 Fed Chair and Yen Move 12:45 Energy and Midstream Returns 13:10 Wrap Up and Next Episode 13:39 Disclosures and Disclaimers Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4wwsHI5 David Bahnsen reviews this week's Fed meeting, noting some credible forecasts expected a surprise 25–50 bp hike, though the Fed ultimately held. He argues the Fed's rationale was unusually direct: financial conditions tightened without a hike as yields rose across the curve, and further tightening should prioritize stopping balance-sheet expansion after $200–$250B of added assets this year. Bahnsen contrasts camps calling for hikes because inflation has stayed above 2% with those citing falling TIPS-implied inflation expectations near 2%, while emphasizing Warsh's market-focused approach and opposition to investors “gaming” Fed guidance (“play the ball, not the referee”). Warsh rejects a Phillips-curve tradeoff, saying price stability and full employment are not in conflict and inflation harms labor markets. Bahnsen expects falling hike odds and is skeptical rates rise this year, viewing Warsh as reform-minded but incremental, independent from President Trump despite citing tariffs and oil-driven supply shocks. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:36 Why This Fed Meeting 03:36 Case for Rate Hike 05:12 Fed Transparency Shift 08:22 Markets Tightened Already 10:21 Balance Sheet First 14:11 Warsh Philosophy Shift 16:50 Hike Odds and Outlook 17:55 Independence and Politics 20:47 Closing Takeaways 22:44 Sign Off and Weekend Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a sharp market reversal day as prior rotation out of semiconductors flipped into a strong tech rebound, with semis up about 7% and several large names rising 10–15%. The Dow gained 613 points (+1.2%), the S&P 500 rose 1.7%, and the Nasdaq climbed 2.8%. A major software company posted blowout earnings and surged 16%—adding roughly $490B in market cap—though the broader software sector was down, making it an outlier. Despite escalations in the Iran war, WTI oil fell about 1%. He addresses an inflation question, distinguishing relative price shocks (tariffs/supply disruptions) from inflation as a broader monetary phenomenon, noting demand-pull, cost-push, and money-supply dynamics. Economic data included Q2 GDP at 1.5% (below expectations), jobless claims at 197K, PCE in line (headline 3.7% y/y; core 3.3% y/y), personal income +0.2%, and consumer spending +0.3%. 00:00 Market Reversal Recap 00:59 Tech and Earnings Surge 01:49 Oil and Geopolitics Oddities 02:03 What Inflation Really Means 03:16 Three Types of Inflation 03:30 Economic Data Rundown 04:41 Fed Outlook and Wrap Up 05:27 Closing and Tomorrow Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Wednesday, July 29, describing a volatile “Fed day” as the FOMC held Fed funds unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. Markets swung sharply and finished broadly lower, with the Dow down 1,153 points (about 2%), the S&P 500 down 1.5%, and Nasdaq down 1.7%, alongside higher rates, rising Middle East tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, and WTI up nearly 7%. He notes a dramatically steepening yield curve, reduced reliance on forward guidance as described by Warsh, and futures implying a 53% chance of a September hike and 31 bps of hikes through year-end. He highlights a divided Fed with three dissenters and discusses a question comparing AI hyperscalers to GFC-era “systemically important” financials, contrasting past equity wipeouts with proposals for government equity participation in AI firms. 00:00 Welcome and Fed Day 00:43 Market Whipsaw Recap 01:17 Rates Oil and Geopolitics 01:38 Yield Curve and Fed Signals 03:01 AI Bailout Question 03:30 GFC Parallels and Differences 04:28 Wrap Up and Takeaways Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

David Bahnsen fills in for Brian Szytel with the Dividend Cafe daily recap, noting the Dow rose 537 points (over 1%) while the Nasdaq fell 22 basis points, underscoring a market rotation away from semiconductors and some technology (semiconductors down almost 5%) toward more traditional/value areas. Healthcare led with a 2.3% gain, followed by consumer staples up 2% and materials up 1.66%, while energy fell 1.4% and technology fell 1.1%, reflecting unusually wide dispersion. The 10-year Treasury closed at 4.6%, down 4 basis points, alongside a broader bond rally with yields lower across the curve. Bahnsen highlights intense attention on the upcoming Fed meeting and argues there is too much focus on the Fed versus the real economy, with more commentary to follow. 00:00 Welcome and Host Swap 00:08 Market Rotation Snapshot 01:00 Sector Winners and Losers 01:36 Rates and Bond Rally 02:07 Fed Hype and Real Economy 02:45 Tomorrow Coverage Preview 02:49 Ask TBG and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yKPl0J The Monday Dividend Cafe reviews a volatile market session where early gains faded despite oil dropping on renewed Iran-talk hopes; the Nasdaq finished slightly down, the S&P flat, and the Dow up 0.5%. The host flags NVIDIA's move to guarantee $250B in financing for an OpenAI data center and notes NVIDIA fell 5%, while highlighting widening CCC credit spreads as a developing risk signal. Sector performance showed rotation rather than broad risk-off, with staples up and energy down on the day, and notable dispersion across semiconductors and software. Policy coverage includes a six-month tariff extension shifting toward Section 301 (10–12%) with expected legal challenges, plus midterm implications tied to Michigan's Senate race. Economic notes: durable goods strength largely driven by data centers; new home sales up modestly but down YoY with prices off peak. Ahead: FOMC under Chair Warsh, balance-sheet tightening possibility, and ongoing earnings season. 00:00 Monday Market Rundown 00:15 Oil Hopes Fade 01:30 NVIDIA Financing Shock 02:21 Credit Spreads Warning 04:00 Sector Rotation Month 04:45 Semis And Software Dispersion 06:21 Tariffs And Trade Policy 07:49 Midterms Michigan Bellwether 10:11 Durables And Data Centers 10:51 Housing And Mortgage Lock In 11:58 Warsh Fed Meeting Preview 14:32 Oil Move And Midstream 14:45 QandA Links And Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TdOnKh David Bahnsen discusses whether the U.S. has shifted from the 1990–2020 disinflation era to a higher structural inflation range, engaging Dr. Lacy Hunt's view that the prior 1.5–2.5% equilibrium may have broken toward 3.5–5% as globalization wanes. Bahnsen argues globalization aided disinflation but wasn't the sole driver, emphasizing Hunt's framework that rising government debt lowers money velocity, crowds out productive investment, and suppresses long-term growth. He questions whether deglobalization is truly structural, citing industrial-policy efforts as often half-hearted and inconsistently enforced. Turning to AI, he notes build-out is capital- and energy-intensive and can be temporarily inflationary, but sees two longer-run outcomes that both lean disinflationary: a favorable productivity-driven supply shock, or a recessionary bust if AI disappoints. He concludes the dominant backdrop remains excess government debt and spending depressing growth. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:28 Inflation Beyond Headlines 02:23 The Disinflation Era 1990-2020 04:08 Lacy Hunt and Debt Dynamics 06:35 Was Globalization the Driver 09:15 Is Globalization Really Ending 12:23 AI as the New Productivity Wave 14:02 Funding the Buildout 15:11 Two AI Outcomes Deflation Either Way 19:19 Final Takeaways and Signoff Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this Dividend Cafe Thursday episode, Brian Szytel recaps a broad market selloff with stocks and bonds down as the Dow fell nearly 600 points, the S&P 500 dropped 1.5%, and the Nasdaq slid 2.4% while the 10-year yield rose about four basis points to 4.7%. He attributes pressure to escalating Middle East tensions after a Houthi attack in the Red Sea, driving oil sharply higher (WTI up 6% near $92 and Brent up 7% above $100), and to disappointing earnings from bellwether tech names Google and Tesla, with Google showing negative free cash flow amid heavy CapEx. He notes markets are only about 4% off highs, cautions that volatility is normal, questions the usefulness of the Shiller CAPE given decades of “overvaluation,” and highlights very strong weekly jobless claims (187, lowest since 1969), which could raise the odds of a Fed hike. 00:00 Market Wrap Overview 00:52 Oil Shock and Rates Rise 01:27 Earnings Hit Tech Leaders 02:49 Volatility and Drawdown Reality 03:36 Shiller CAPE Debate 04:06 Jobs Data and Fed Outlook 04:54 Sign Off and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

On Wednesday, July 22, Brian Szytel reports a quiet, mostly flat market day: the Dow and S&P 500 were flat, the Nasdaq fell about 0.4%, the 10-year Treasury yield rose roughly three basis points to 4.66%, and WTI oil gained about 2.5% amid continued Middle East turmoil. With no economic news, he discusses a Goldman Sachs white paper on global demographics, noting slowing or negative population growth in the developed world (Japan and China already peaked; Europe close), and that U.S. demographics are relatively better due to immigration, supporting a premium equity multiple alongside higher productivity. He also notes U.S. multinationals' foreign revenue share has declined since the 2010s. Finally, he explains the S&P can be positive while momentum/semiconductor names enter a bear market because money rotated into other sectors, shown by equal-weight S&P strength versus cap-weight weakness. 00:00 Market Wrap Snooze Fest 00:48 Why So Quiet Today 01:14 Goldman Demographics Paper 02:00 GDP Growth Headwinds 03:14 Emerging Markets Reality Check 03:52 US Valuation Premium Case 04:21 Global Revenue And Dollar Talk 04:52 Tech Bear Market Question 05:16 Rotation Explains The S&P 05:53 Closing Thoughts And Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a Tuesday market rebound led by momentum stocks and semiconductors, with the Dow up over 300 points, the S&P 500 up 0.9%, and the Nasdaq up 1.3%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.63% and oil climbed to about $84 WTI and $91 Brent amid the Iran war, pressuring inflation expectations and rates. With no major economic data, he focuses on demand-pull inflation and the lagged relationship between money supply (M2) and CPI, noting M2 is up ~3.5% year-to-date and nearly 6% over 12 months, suggesting inflation could bias higher 12–18 months out despite a cooler June CPI. He discusses the Fed's inflation-fighting rhetoric, an estimated high chance of a rate hike before year-end, and potential headwinds to risk assets from tighter policy and balance-sheet shrinkage. He also explains that point moves typically refer to the Dow for public discussion, while deeper market analysis relies on the broader S&P 500. 00:00 Market Bounce Recap 01:02 Rates and Oil Move 01:37 Money Supply and CPI 03:05 Fed Hike Risk Ahead 04:52 Dow vs S&P Explained 06:41 Wrap Up and Q&A Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yvcd4b David Bahnsen reviews a modest down day for markets as Iran tensions and reported American casualties push oil above $80 (ending above $83), with the Dow down ~300, S&P -19 bps, Nasdaq -5 bps, and the 10-year yield at 4.59%; communication services and energy led while healthcare lagged. He cites IPO froth cooling, noting SpaceX below $120 versus a $135 IPO and far off highs. In politics, he highlights Maine's Senate race likely featuring progressive Troy Jackson versus Susan Collins and notes Michigan Democrats consolidating behind Haley Stevens, outlining the difficult map for a Democratic Senate majority. Economically, he underscores the Supreme Court reversal of IEEPA tariffs lowering blended import tariffs from ~11% to ~6–6.5%, while flagging a record 105.8M outside the labor force, soft industrial production, rising import prices, and housing starts driven by multifamily. He previews next week's Fed meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, balance-sheet maturity shortening, midstream earnings (Kinder Morgan), and answers why shorting stocks is inherently leveraged and generally unsuitable for most investors. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:17 Iran Tensions and Oil 01:24 Market Wrap and Sectors 02:17 IPO Froth Check 03:13 Senate Races Outlook 05:39 Economy Data and Tariffs 07:43 Housing and Fed Preview 09:08 Energy Earnings and Gas 10:01 Ask TBG Short Selling 12:00 Wrap Up and Links Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4fhExhw From the Newport Beach studio ,David outlines five market concerns and five items he is not worried about. His worries are: extreme S&P 500 concentration (top 10 near 39% and semiconductors rising to ~20% weight), speculative retail behavior (surging ETF inflows, levered ETF growth, and elevated options/0DTE activity), a “right pocket vs left pocket” dynamic where hyperscaler AI spending transfers free cash flow to semiconductor/data-center suppliers, an S&P earnings narrative he sees as circular and priced to perfection with margin risks, and counterparty risk tied to OpenAI—especially the possibility of government “nationalizing” AI. Not worried: imminent AI job destruction (headcount rising at AI adopters), volatility, the politicized inflation narrative, near-term energy price swings, or “software is dead,” arguing AI creates winners and losers requiring due diligence; he closes noting long-term concern over government debt and preference for dividend growth. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 01:10 Market Concentration Risk 04:36 ETF and Options Frenzy 08:52 AI Capex Winners and Losers 10:46 S&P Earnings and Margins 13:25 OpenAI Counterparty Risk 16:43 AI Jobs Fears Debunked 19:15 Why Volatility Helps 20:17 Inflation Narrative Nuance 23:39 Energy Beyond ESG 25:26 Software Valuations Reset 27:03 Recap and Big Picture Close Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Thursday, July 16, describing a down market day driven by rotation out of tech and semis, with the Nasdaq down 1.5% versus modest declines in the Dow and S&P, and equal-weighted S&P outperforming cap-weighted by over 160 bps. He highlights ongoing housing weakness: existing home sales at the lowest pace since 1995, affordability pressures with mortgage payments rising from about $1,700 to $3,100 since 2020, and record home equity (~$11T) contributing to illiquidity as most homeowners have rates below current levels. He addresses financials' July strength, noting they signal economic health but appear fairly to slightly richly valued around 2x price-to-book. Economic data was mostly positive (retail sales +0.2%, Philly Fed 41 vs 13, claims 208 vs 218) while housing data disappointed (builder sentiment down, pending sales -5.6%). 00:00 Market Wrap and Rotation 00:47 Housing Market Stuck 01:23 Affordability and Equity 03:08 Financials Sector Question 04:36 Economic Data Rundown 05:12 Housing Data Misses 05:37 Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

On Wednesday, July 15, Brian Szytel reports modest market gains (Dow +150, S&P 500 +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.6%) amid a positive early Q2 earnings tone, though Middle East tensions temper sentiment and momentum tech (semis and software) has been pressured. He highlights notable strength in financials, citing rising lending, M&A, and capital markets activity, with investment banking up about 30%, capital markets up over 15%, and financial earnings up over 6%, viewing this as a forward-looking sign of economic confidence. The day's key news was a second straight cooler-than-expected inflation report: PPI fell 0.3% vs flat expected and core rose 0.2% vs 0.4% expected, implying a favorable PCE read. He discusses potential market impacts if Strait of Hormuz disruption persisted (higher oil, inflation, rates; pressure on long-duration assets; benefits to U.S. production), while noting futures imply ~$75 oil in a year, and adds a strong Empire State manufacturing print (15.6 vs 8.4 expected). 00:00 Market Close Recap 00:23 Earnings Season Pulse 01:00 Financials Lead Strength 02:26 Cooler Inflation Data 03:40 Hormuz Risk Scenario 05:15 Futures Reality Check 05:28 Manufacturing Beat Wrap 05:57 Final Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a mixed but positive market day with the Dow up about 45 points, the S&P 500 up 0.4%, and the Nasdaq up just under 1%, helped by a broad financial-sector rally despite somewhat mixed large-bank earnings. Oil rose with increased Middle East tensions and volatility around the Strait of Hormuz. The main story was a better-than-expected CPI report: headline CPI fell 0.4% versus expectations for -0.1%, and core CPI was essentially flat (-0.02%) versus a forecast of +0.2%, bringing year-over-year core to 2.6% and pushing the 10-year yield down about 3 bps to 4.58%, with Fed futures repricing to lower odds of hikes. He notes one print isn't a trend, highlights a stronger NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, and explains why deflation is worse than modest inflation, citing Japan's long period of minimal growth. 00:00 Market Wrap and Earnings 00:45 Oil Jitters Middle East 01:01 CPI Surprise and Rates 02:39 Fed Talk and Futures 04:12 Small Business Optimism 04:26 Inflation Versus Deflation 05:35 Japanification Case Study 06:34 Wrap Up and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bF0WEu The Monday Dividend Cafe recaps a volatile market day that resembled prior Iran-tension selloffs: oil surged nearly 10%, energy rose over 3%, tech fell over 2%, semiconductors dropped about 4.77%, the Nasdaq fell over 1.5%, the S&P 500 was down 80 bps, and the Dow slipped 138 points, while the 10-year yield rose 6 bps to 4.63%. The host discusses an apparent market leadership rotation (equal-weight beating cap-weight, small cap beating large cap, value beating growth) alongside the paradox of momentum being the top year-to-date factor because “momentum” has shifted to new leaders. He adds new “More to Chew On” links to the written Dividend Cafe and previews a Friday piece on five market concerns and five non-concerns. Key news includes the reported death of Senator Lindsey Graham and escalating US-Iran strikes with renewed Strait of Hormuz closure and US blockade claims. He notes June existing home sales fell 2.4%, contrasts mortgage rates and home prices versus 10 years ago, summarizes new Fed task forces, and highlights differing views on rate hikes with futures implying a 90% chance of at least one hike by year-end. 00:00 Market Open Recap 01:11 New Links Section 02:20 Friday Feedback 02:52 Rotation Versus Momentum 05:45 Rates Oil And Sectors 06:09 IPO Mania Warning 07:35 Headlines And Iran 09:00 Housing And Fed Outlook 10:57 Wrap Up And Friday Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yeyV0d David Bahnsen uses the idea of asking 19-year-olds what's popular to critique a growing tendency among investors to allocate capital based on youth trends and “shiny objects” rather than fundamentals. He distinguishes learning about generational preferences from turning those preferences into portfolio decisions, arguing this misreads Peter Lynch's “invest in what you know,” which requires deeper research beyond familiarity. Bahnsen cites examples where popularity failed as an investment signal—Forever 21's boom and bankruptcy, Gap's long-term stock decline, Snapchat's extreme volatility despite rising users, and Krispy Kreme's post-IPO collapse—showing that what seems popular is often already priced in. He warns against adopting crypto, Bitcoin, AI-adjacent trades, IPO mania, or meme-stock themes merely to match what younger clients want, emphasizing fiduciary duty, cash flow, intrinsic value, and the idea that fads can be a counter-signal. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 02:01 Why Youth Trends Matter 02:39 Tech Habits vs Investing 06:41 Peter Lynch Misread 09:28 Retail Fads Fail Fast 12:15 Snapchat Popularity Trap 13:34 Krispy Kreme Lesson 16:02 Crypto and AI Pressure 19:33 Shiny Object Investing 21:37 Fiduciary Depth and Close Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this midweek Dividend Cafe (Thursday, July 9), Brian Szytel notes a mixed recovery in markets amid renewed volatility tied to Middle East tensions, while oil prices pulled back slightly and interest rates were flat to slightly lower. Economic updates included initial jobless claims coming in a bit better than expected, suggesting steady, healthy employment, and weaker existing home sales (down 3.4% to 4.09 million), reflecting affordability pressures from high rates and a stuck housing market, with modest price declines seen as healthy clearing. He reviews June FOMC minutes showing a divided committee, some discussion of potential hikes, continued attention to AI demand, geopolitical risks, tariffs as a GDP drag, and higher inflation projections for 2026–2027, with expectations split between hikes and no change. He also explains that business cycles persist due to real-economy lags in capital, credit, inventories, labor, and policy transmission. 00:00 Market Recap Volatility 00:46 Jobs And Housing Data 01:32 Housing Affordability Reset 02:37 Fed Minutes Takeaways 03:54 Dot Plot And Guidance 05:05 Why Business Cycles Persist 06:53 Wrap Up And Q&A Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Wednesday, July 8, discussing increased volatility tied to escalating US-Iran tensions after Iran struck oil tankers and the US retaliated against multiple military targets, with oil up about 5% and markets modestly lower but without a clear flight to safety (dollar slightly up, yields up ~3 bps, gold and silver down). He notes rotation dynamics and highlights sector breadth: pharma, household products, and utilities show 100% of stocks above their 50-day moving averages, versus tech, semis, and autos below 40%. Economically, wholesale inventories rose 0.1% versus 0.3% expected, while wholesale sales jumped 3.4%, pushing the inventory-to-sales ratio to its lowest since 2012. He addresses Scott Bessent's tariff “success” claim, citing tariff revenues annualizing to about $290B versus $500B–$1T estimates, some net-positive trade deals (Japan, South Korea), little change in the trade deficit, slight GDP drag on consumers, and offsets from fiscal measures and AI-related CapEx expensing. 00:00 Market Volatility Update 00:36 Oil Moves and Safe Havens 01:11 Sector Rotation Signals 01:41 Wholesale Data Snapshot 02:10 Tariffs Success Question 03:09 Trade Deals and Deficit 04:04 Wrap Up and Tomorrow Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a quiet Tuesday, July 7, with markets closing modestly lower amid increased U.S.–Iran tensions involving tanker attacks and restrictions on Iran's oil exports; crude rose about 3% to roughly $70.56 while gold dipped. Tech led the decline as semiconductors sold off, with the S&P 500 down ~0.5%, the Dow ~0.4%, and the Nasdaq down a little over 1%. Economic news was limited, but May's U.S. trade deficit widened to $77B, about $20B more than the prior month. Despite the pullback, major indices are up around 10% year-to-date, reflecting a rotation from concentrated chip leaders (some down ~30% in 10 days) into defensives and broader participation. The 10-year yield rose ~7 bps to 4.55%. He also addresses concerns about Q1 profits boosted by mark-to-market gains on non-listed AI holdings, calling it non-recurring and two-sided. 00:00 Market Wrap Intro 00:11 Geopolitics Oil Moves 00:43 Tech Rotation Selloff 01:09 Trade Deficit Update 01:32 Year To Date Perspective 02:28 Rates And Macro Mix 02:39 Ask TBG Earnings Quirk 03:45 Closing Remarks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bvLEBZ In the Monday Dividend Cafe, the host recaps a post–three-day weekend market rally with the Dow closing above 53,000 for the first time, the S&P 500 up 0.72%, and the Nasdaq up over 1%, while the 10-year Treasury remained around 4.47%. He notes TIP spreads show reduced inflation expectations even as longer yields imply stronger real growth, arguing the market can't simultaneously justify Fed hikes on rising inflation expectations and claim the market is wrong as expectations fall; he also discusses futures pricing that still implies mostly one hike. He highlights market weakness as rotational rather than systemic, with communication services and tech leading and defensives lagging. Economic discussion includes disappointing June job growth and downward revisions alongside a lower unemployment rate driven by falling participation. He flags Florida housing supply, price cuts, and loss-making sales as signs prices were too high, contrasts with prolonged China home-price declines, and reviews steady oil, strong year-to-date midstream performance, and upcoming client reporting and geopolitical headlines. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:46 Market Open Recap 01:34 Rates and Inflation Signals 03:31 Will the Fed Hike 05:40 Rotation Not Rout 07:29 Economic Data Check 09:27 Florida Housing Warning 12:28 China Housing Contrast 13:02 Energy and Midstream Update 14:40 Week Ahead and Wrap Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4vddsCn In a midyear 2026 Dividend Cafe holiday episode, the host reviews surprises and themes shaping markets: despite the “Mag Seven” down about 2%, the S&P 493 is up roughly 15–16% and the overall index about 10%, reflecting a major rotation toward value, smaller caps, and sectors like industrials, utilities, and energy. Another surprise is the two-year Treasury yield rising from ~3.4% to nearly 4.25% as rate-cut expectations faded, flattening the curve without derailing equity valuations. He discusses AI “vulnerabilities,” noting hyperscalers' surging CapEx and financing, dispersion across AI-related stocks, and froth signaled by a parabolic semiconductor run and tech's heavy S&P weight, alongside speculation in meme stocks and levered single-stock ETFs. Economically, tariffs were partially removed, labor data remains mixed, M&A/SPAC activity is strong, energy and small caps have worked, housing has softened, and he reiterates disciplined, fundamental, value-oriented investing. 00:00 Holiday Weekend Welcome 00:36 Midyear Market Setup 01:21 Mag Seven Surprise 03:27 Rates Rise Yet Stocks 04:40 AI Theme Check In 05:28 Capex And Cash Flow 08:08 Valuations And Dispersion 09:50 Semiconductor Froth Warning 12:03 Speculation Beyond Crypto 14:36 Economic Tug Of War 17:14 M&A And SPAC Revival 18:26 Other Themes Scorecard 20:07 Midyear Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps an unusual pre–July 4th market session with the Dow up 594 points (+1.15%), the S&P 500 flat, and the Nasdaq down 0.8% amid a continued unwind in momentum stocks, especially semiconductors, while value and dividend sectors outperformed and the equal-weight S&P beat the cap-weighted index. The key driver was a softer June non-farm payrolls report (57,000 jobs vs. 110,000 expected) with prior-month revisions lower, alongside a slight dip in unemployment to 4.2% driven partly by a falling labor force participation rate (61.5%, lowest since 2021). Rate-hike expectations fell sharply, with Fed futures moving to a 50/50 chance and markets pricing the Fed on hold; Szytel notes a 25 bps move is less important than AI CapEx, margins, earnings, employment, and inflation. Other data included jobless claims at 215K, average hourly earnings at 0.3%, and factory orders down 1.3% in line. 00:00 Holiday Welcome 00:33 Odd Market Snapshot 00:55 Payrolls Surprise 01:57 Rates and Rotation 02:48 No Hike Question 04:02 Other Data Points 04:35 Wrap Up and Wishes Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a down, rotation-driven market day from West Palm Beach, with the Dow near flat, the S&P 500 slightly lower, and the Nasdaq weaker amid a sharp semiconductor sell-off (down 5–10%) even as some software and communication services names rose. He cites strong Korean AI chip export growth (70% year over year) but suggests investors may be pricing semis for perpetually outsized growth and reacting to signs of a peak growth rate. Inflation commentary helped rates ease slightly and the yield curve steepened marginally, though the 10-year Treasury ended around 4.48%. Economic data included ADP private payrolls at 98K (below expectations), ISM manufacturing at 53.3 (expansion), and weak construction spending, reflecting housing softness tied to higher rates. He previews a holiday-shortened week and Thursday's nonfarm payrolls report. 00:00 Market Open Recap 00:24 Semis Selloff Explained 00:49 Korea Chip Demand Peak 01:34 Rates and Fed Talk 01:53 Index Closes and Yields 02:08 Economic Data Rundown 02:53 Housing Softness 03:31 Rotation and Small Caps 03:48 Jobs Report Preview 04:28 Wrap Up and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps markets on June 30, the last day of Q2, noting a strong first half for the Dow and the best Nasdaq quarter since 2020, with tech leading as the Dow rose 136 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.5% while the 10-year yield increased 8 bps. He highlights the Japanese yen at its weakest versus the dollar in over 40 years (~162), describing the yen carry trade and warning that BOJ interventions (about 11 trillion yen) and rate hikes could trigger volatility like August 2024. He also discusses rising system leverage, with margin debt up 54% year over year to about $1.4T and the risks of triple-leveraged single-stock ETFs for retail investors. Economic data included weaker consumer confidence, stronger JOLTS openings with steady quits, lower Chicago PMI, and softer Case-Shiller home prices (down monthly, +0.7% YoY). 00:00 Market Wrap Q2 Finale 01:32 Yen Weakness And Carry Trade 02:40 BOJ Intervention Risks 03:47 Leverage Rising In Markets 04:22 Margin Debt And Leveraged ETFs 05:51 Economic Data Roundup 06:48 Closing Thoughts And Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3R54h8Z David Bahnsen previews a forthcoming mid-year Dividend Cafe recap and notes a CNBC interview on market excesses in AI/tech and investor behavior. Markets rose sharply (Dow +300, S&P +1.1%, Nasdaq +2%) led by communication services; Google's first day in the Dow coincided with Verizon's exit, while materials fell. He argues recent breadth versus index performance supports rotation over correction, and questions whether stock and bond markets are truly pricing Fed rate hikes despite high futures-implied odds; the 10-year ended flat at 4.37%. He reviews Iran-US ceasefire uncertainty and Supreme Court activity, including sending the Lisa Cook firing dispute to lower court for due process while upholding an FTC firing. He flags bipartisan interest in taxing/data-center limits, discusses a likely housing bill with limited impact versus state/local barriers, cites rising supply-chain cost indicators, weak new-home sales and falling prices, notes Fed balance-sheet growth, oil at $70.50, and upcoming JOLTS and jobs data (Thursday). 00:00 Welcome and Week Ahead 02:12 Market Recap and Rotation 04:17 Fed Hike Debate 07:04 Geopolitics and Supreme Court 10:03 Data Centers and Housing Bill 12:59 Economy Housing and Fed Sheet 15:14 Energy and Jobs Week 16:05 Wrap Up and Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4v7DfvO From Grand Rapids, David Bahnsen reflects on a speech and borrows Abraham Lincoln's “last best hope” language to argue that markets—properly understood as broad venues of human exchange, entrepreneurship, and capital formation, not merely the stock market—are inherently forward-looking declarations of optimism. He contrasts market incentives with media and political incentives that often reward negativity, and contends that entrepreneurs and investors with “skin in the game” demonstrate belief in a better tomorrow by turning ideas into solutions that meet human needs. Bahnsen urges defenders of free enterprise to resist dehumanizing markets into charts, ratios, and GDP-only talk, emphasizing the human realities of risk-taking, labor, innovation, and profitably providing goods and services. He previews a mid-year 2026 report for next week ahead of the Fourth of July and the nation's 250th anniversary. 00:00 Welcome From Grand Rapids 00:36 Lincoln Last Best Hope 03:10 Markets As Hope 03:51 Not Just The Stock Market 05:18 Entrepreneurial Incentives 09:16 Risk And Future Focus 10:11 Humanizing Economics 14:23 Capital Tools And Portfolios 17:32 Closing And Next Week Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Thursday, June 25, describing a mixed but slightly positive market with a growth-to-value rotation as equal-weighted indexes outpaced cap-weighted, rates dipped, and oil rose slightly while Brent returned near pre US-Iran levels; despite one major AI semiconductor earnings beat lifting parts of the space, much of tech was down. He reviews heavy economic releases: May PCE inflation met expectations (0.4% headline, 0.3% core; core PCE 3.4% YoY), Q1 GDP was revised up to 2.1%, jobless claims beat expectations, durable goods fell as expected, and personal income and consumer spending exceeded forecasts, with five of six items better than expected. He highlights dividend growth using a 2000 S&P 500 example where a 1.2% yield grew to about 5.5% cash-on-cash over 26 years, and discusses private credit redemption gates, diversification, and software-sector stress as a key risk versus a systemic collapse. 00:00 Market Snapshot 01:03 Economic Data Rundown 02:36 Value Rotation Drivers 02:45 Dividend Growth Power 04:36 Ask TPG Private Credit 05:11 Run on Bank Explained 06:49 Wrap Up and Weekend Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a Wednesday session that began with a recovery bounce led by technology as interest rates and WTI fell, but the rally fizzled and selling in tech resumed while value names held up better. He says markets are digesting valuation pressure with stocks trading around 22–23x earnings and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could affect oil prices. He highlights the 2s/10s spread flattening from about 80 bps earlier in the year to about 26 bps, suggesting slowing growth and potential Fed policy risk as inflation remains a concern; markets imply a high chance of at least one rate hike by year-end. The key data point was weak May new home sales (580k vs 640k expected) and elevated unsold new-home inventory at 9.4 months amid high mortgage rates. 00:00 Market Bounce Fizzles 00:44 Valuations and Oil Risk 01:35 Yield Curve Warning Signs 02:00 Fed Policy and Rate Hike Odds 03:15 Listener Question on Spreads 04:03 Housing Data Miss 05:11 Wrap Up and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Brian Szytel recaps a broad market sell-off led by technology and semiconductors, highlighting a nearly 10% drop in South Korea's KOSPI—an index heavily concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix—attributed to valuation, demand shifts, and DRAM supply issues after a major run-up. He notes similar 5–10% declines in high-flying semiconductor names and emphasizes that despite real AI-driven demand and a rare reversal of decades-long chip price declines due to supply-demand imbalance, valuations still matter. On the economic front, flash PMIs were strong: manufacturing surged to 55.7, the highest in a little over four years, and services also beat expectations, supporting an improving growth backdrop tied partly to data-center CapEx. He addresses concerns about the U.S. dollar losing reserve status, arguing no viable replacement exists, citing dollar dominance in FX (90%) and global reserves (57%) versus the euro (20%). 00:00 Summer Market Check-In 00:31 Global Tech Sell-Off 01:38 Semis Valuation Reality 02:01 AI Chip Demand Shift 02:48 PMI Data Highlights 03:43 Dollar Reserve Status Fears 04:32 What Could Replace Dollar 05:53 Reserve Currency Numbers 06:32 Wrap Up and Q&A Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com