Speaking of the Economy

Nicolas Morales, Horacio Sapriza, and Chen Yeh take listeners behind the scenes on how they work with detailed, confidential datasets about businesses and individuals. They also discuss how they gain insights on topics like immigration, credit markets, and labor productivity while safeguarding privacy rights. Morales is an economist, Sapriza is a senior economist and policy advisor, and Yeh is a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_05_14_fed_data

Stephanie Norris and Matthew Wells discuss their recent research on workforce development programs at community colleges that are aimed at helping the incarcerated re-enter the workforce after they are released. Norris is a senior research analyst and Wells is a senior economics writer, both at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_05_07_community_colleges_incarcerated

Zach Edwards and Daniel Weitz discuss the concerns that chief financial officers across the country reported about their own companies and the national economy in the latest CFO Survey. Edwards is a research analyst on the Regional and Community Analysis team at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Weitz is a csurvey director at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_04_23_cfo_survey_tariffs

John O'Trakoun and Adam Scavette discuss their new approach to gauging the health of the economy and the likelihood that a recession is taking place before other indicators would detect it. O'Trakoun is a senior policy economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Scavette is a community development economic advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_04_16_sos_recession_indicator

Pierre-Daniel Sarte and Thomas Lubik discuss their research on the components of productivity growth, how that growth has varied over time and across industries, and how much it will benefit from the use of artificial intelligence. Sarte and Lubik are senior advisors in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_04_09_productivity_growth

Job Boerma shares a model for how poor mental health affects the economic decisions of consumers and the economy as a whole. Boerma, an assistant professor in economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, presented his research at a recent CORE Week at the Richmond Fed. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_03_26_economic_toll_mental_illness

Chen Yeh provides an update on the longevity and broader impacts of the surge in start-ups during the COVID-19 pandemic. Yeh is a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_03_19_startup_surge_update

Vanity McDaniel and Jennifer Stadler provide a snapshot of how consumers pay for goods and services today and reflect on the latest technology trends in the U.S. payments system, including contactless payments, digital wallets, "buy now, pay later," instant payments, and the use of artificial intelligence. McDaniel is a senior payments business advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Stadler is executive vice president of marketing and membership at PaymentsFirst. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_03_12_electronic_payments

Renee Haltom and Sonya Waddell share what recent surveys and conversations with Fifth District contacts reveal about the expectations of businesses for their own prospects and the economy as a whole, as well as firms' concerns about inflation, labor markets, and other potential issues in 2025. Haltom is a regional executive and vice president and Waddell is a vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond., Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_02_19_economic_outlook

Emily Corcoran and Jen Giovannitti discuss the demand and supply factors that influence the financing of community development in rural areas, as well as the issues that impede the flow of capital into the places that need it. Corcoran is a senior manager of regional and community analysis at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Giovannitti is president of the Claude Worthington Benedum Foundation. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_02_12_rural_investment

Marina Azzimonti discusses the rise in the cost of borrowing for countries following the COVID-19 pandemic and the broader implications of this trend for emerging countries, especially those that don't have strong governmental institutions. Azzimonti is a senior economist and research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_02_05_sovereign_debt

Amanda Neitzel and Santiago Pinto report on the progress of students after the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic, differences in the persistence of learning losses, and efforts to remediate these losses. Neitzel is an assistant research professor at the Center for Research and Reform in Education at Johns Hopkins University, while Pinto is a senior economist and policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_01_22_pandemic_learning_losses

Ricardo Reis discusses how swap lines have supported the flow of U.S. currency into global financial markets to meet their liquidity needs and the dollar's prominence in those markets, especially during the 2007-08 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Reis is an economics professor at the London School of Economics and a long-term consultant at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_01_15_fed_swap_lines

Laura Ullrich and Stephanie Norris dive into the initial results of the 2024 Survey of Community College Outcomes, including information on completion rates, transfer rates, and enrollment at more than 120 community colleges in five states. Ullrich and Norris are the director and associate director, respectively, of the Richmond Fed's Community College Initiative. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_01_08_comm_college_survey

Bethany Greene and Jason Kosakow review the damage wrought on communities in western North Carolina and other parts of the Fifth District from Hurricane Helene last September. They also share what their business contacts have told them about Helene's economic impacts, both within and outside of the hurricane's path. Greene is a regional economist at the Charlotte branch of the Richmond Fed and Kosakow is the Bank's survey director. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_12_18_hurricane_helene

John Bailey Jones and Urvi Neelakantan discuss their research on the living arrangements of older individuals and the implications of these homeowners aging in place for wealth accumulation and housing markets. Jones is vice president of microeconomic analysis and Neelakantan is a senior policy economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_12_11_aging

Felipe Schwartzman explains how he and other economists define the natural rate of interest, what factors have influenced this theoretical estimate of where long-term interest rates will settle, and what it tells us about how the cost of savings and borrowing will respond as monetary policy normalizes after the COVID-19 pandemic. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_12_04_interest_rate_normalization

For our 150th episode, Anna Kovner reviews her career path to becoming the research director at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and reflects on the work of the Bank's Research department. Kovner also offers her views on various topics — including the banking turmoil of 2023, the Fed's "lender of last resort" role, current risks to the financial system, and the "neutral rate" of interest — as well as the current state of the national economy. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_11_20_kovner

Alaina Barca and Surekha Carpenter examine the decline in the number of bank branches in certain communities and the economic effects of that trend. They also share data from the Banking Deserts Dashboard developed for the Fed Communities website. Barca is a community development research analyst at the Philadelphia Fed and Carpenter is a research analyst at the Richmond Fed. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_11_13_banking_deserts

Erika Bell and Emily Corcoran discuss the capital needs of small business owners and recent insights yielded by the Federal Reserve's annual Small Business Credit Survey. Bell is community development regional manager for North Carolina and South Carolina and Corcoran is senior manager of regional and community analysis, both at the Richmond Fed. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_11_06_small_business_credit

Toan Phan reviews the risks faced by banks from the increased frequency and intensity of floods and other extreme weather events, and how banks and financial markets have responded to those risks. Phan is a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_10_23_banks_flood_risk

Deborah Diamond and Adam Scavette discuss how anchor institutions such as universities and hospitals fit into the economic life of communities. Diamond is director of the Anchor Economy Initiative at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Scavette is a regional economist at the Baltimore office of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_10_16_anchor_institutions

Anne Davlin discusses the current state of lending to the commercial real estate sector in the Fifth District, including the challenges faced by office building and multiunit housing developers and the ensuing risks posed to their lenders. Davlin is a senior quantitative analyst in the Richmond Fed's Supervision, Regulation and Credit department. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_10_09_commercial_real_estate

Tom Barkin, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, looks back on recent economic trends and how they have shaped the current state of the national economy. Topics include return to work, technology adoption and its implications for labor productivity, the surge in new business formation, and the Richmond Fed's current efforts to understand the economy better. (Note: This episode was recorded before the September 2024 FOMC meeting and the August jobs data release.) Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_09_25_barkin

Pierre-Daniel Sarte and Sonya Waddell share survey results on businesses' use of AI tools and other forms of automation, and research on the potential effects of automation on the nation's overall productivity growth. Sarte is a senior advisor and Waddell is a vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_09_18_automation

Katarína Borovičková and Claudia Macaluso describe their research on differences in wage growth between workers as they progress in their careers. Borovičková and Macaluso are economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_09_11_career_ladders

Sierra Stoney outlines the factors that have recently driven up premiums for homeowners insurance, adding pricing pressure to housing markets. Stoney is a senior research analyst on the Regional and Community Analysis team at the Richmond Fed. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_08_21_homeowners_insurance

David Cox, Adin Hammond and Tyrese Wheaton describe their summer at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond interning in three different departments. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_08_14_summer_interns

Chen Yeh discusses the differences in how much power companies have in labor markets and how that affects employees and their wages. Yeh is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_08_07_monopsony

Jason Smith, senior community development advisor at the Richmond Fed, discussed the results of the first round of the Bank's Community Investment Training, which helps rural communities obtain funding for their economic and community development projects. He also shared his interview with one of the program's participants, Craig Sewell of the Southern Maryland Agricultural Development Commission. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_07_24_coaching_rural_communities

Stephanie Norris and Laura Ullrich explain how an effort to make it easier for prospective college students to apply for federal financial aid has had ripple effects on enrollment at community colleges and other institutions of higher education. Norris is a senior research analyst and Ullrich is a senior regional economist at the Richmond Fed. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_07_17_fafsa

Andy Bauer and Renee Haltom talk about why consumers and businesses are telling a different story about the economy than the data suggests. They also discuss how economists reconcile such differences between sentiment and data. Bauer and Haltom are regional executives at the Richmond Fed. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_07_10_how_is_the_economy_really

Borys Grochulski and Zhu Wang discuss the compensation structure of real estate agents and how that has shaped the homebuying process and the housing market in general. Grochulski is a senior economist and Wang is vice president for research in financial and payments systems at the Richmond Fed. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_06_26_real_estate_agent_compensation

Host Tim Sablik shares some of the key insights from community development experts at the Richmond Fed's fifth annual Investing in Rural America Conference. The event was held in Roanoke, Va., in May 2024. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_06_19_ira_recap

Jason Kosakow and Adam Scavette review the economic effects of the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore on the national, regional, and local level. Kosakow is the Richmond Fed's survey director and Scavette is a regional economist at the Bank's branch office in Baltimore. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_06_12_key_bridge_collapse

Alexander Wolman discusses the Federal Reserve's establishment of an inflation target in 2012 and how that has fit within the Fed's evolving monetary policy framework. Wolman is vice president for monetary and macroeconomic research at the Richmond Fed. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_05_22_inflation_target

Taylor Bennett and Kim Reed describe how community development organizations in West Virginia use land banks to bring new economic activity to abandoned property. Bennett is executive director of the West Virginia Land Stewardship Corporation and Reed is executive director of the Nitro Land Reuse Authority. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_05_15_land_banks

Daniel Weitzner, an information security expert at MIT, discusses the cyber threats to the financial services industry and the challenges of measuring and modeling those risks. He also shares learnings from a recent conference co-hosted by MIT, the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, and the Federal Reserve System Board of Governors. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_05_08_cyber_risks_financial_sector

Adam Scavette, a regional economist at the Baltimore branch of the Richmond Fed, and Keith Waters of George Mason University discuss their analysis of migration patterns in Maryland and how they might help explain a significant reduction in the state's workforce since the COVID-19 pandemic. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_04_17_outmigration_maryland

Richmond Fed economist Santiago Pinto discusses what economists have learned about policies intended to promote economic development in specific communities. He also outlines the intended and unintended spillover effects beyond the targeted communities. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_04_10_place_based_policies

Richmond Fed economist Nicolas Morales shares his research on immigration policy and how the regulation of the flow of information technology workers from India to the United States during the 1990s benefited both countries' IT sectors. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_04_03_immigration_it_india

Laura Ullrich and Jacob Walker review data they have gathered from the Richmond Fed Survey of Community College Outcomes about high school students who take dual enrollment classes. They also discuss difference in how these classes are funded. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_03_20_dual_enrollment

Richmond Fed economist Nicholas Trachter shares his research on the market concentration and power of firms and whether the increased concentration in national markets has reduced competition in local markets. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_03_13_market_concentration

Felipe Schwartzman and Sonya Waddell discuss their research on the relationship between inflation and firms' expectations for their costs and prices, informed by the responses to special questions added to the Richmond Fed's business surveys since 2021. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_03_06_inflation_expectations

Yaa Opoku-Agyeman of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Rachel Lee of Uber Eats talk about their careers as economists and how they have applied their research and analysis skills to address everyday issues. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_02_21_econ_in_action

Richmond Fed economist John Bailey Jones shares what he has learned about the savings decisions of people when they're single compared to when they're married, particularly during retirement. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_02_14_marriage_retirement

Richmond Fed economists Andreas Hornstein and Marios Karabarbounis discuss their research on unemployment insurance (UI), most recently on the disincentive effects of the substantial expansion of UI benefits during the COVID-19 pandemic. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_02_07_unemp_insurance

Workforce development was a major topic of conversation when Matt Martin and Erika Bell recently met with business and community leaders in Pickens County and Oconee County, South Carolina. In this episode, Martin and Bell discussed what they learned during their visit. Two local workforce development leaders — Jeromy Arnett and Ray Farley of Alliance Pickens — also shared their stories. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_01_24_workforce_development

John O'Trakoun reviews different ways of tracking inflation that are intended to screen out noise and provide a more accurate forecast of price levels. He also discusses his unique approach to capturing this key economic indicator. O'Trakoun is a senior policy economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_01_17_measuring_inflation

Thomas Lubik and Christian Matthes discuss how economists wrestle with measuring the natural rate of interest or r-star, why this measure is important for monetary policymakers, and how their model has evolved to better chart the path of interest rates. Lubik is a senior advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Matthes is a professor of economics at Indiana University. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2024/speaking_2024_01_10_natural_rate

Kartik Athreya, the Richmond Fed's research director, answers questions submitted by listeners about housing, the Fed's bond purchases, interest rate targeting, and artificial intelligence. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2023/speaking_2023_12_20_ask_richmond_fed