Podcasts about research department

Lisa Shalett, our Wealth Management CIO, and Andrew Sheets, our Head of Corporate Credit Research, conclude their discussion of American Exceptionalism, factoring in fixed income, in the second of a two-part episode.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Lisa Shalett: And I'm Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Andrew Sheets: Today – a today a concluding look at the theme of American exceptionalism and how it factors into fixed income. It's Thursday, July 31st at 4pm in London. Lisa Shalett:  And it's 11am here in New York. So, Andrew, it's my turn to ask you some questions. And yesterday we talked a lot about equity markets, globalization, some of the broader macro shifts. But I wanted to zoom in on the credit markets today and one of our themes in the American Exceptionalism paper was the constraints of debts and deficits and how they play in. With U.S. debts level soaring and interest costs rising, how concerned should investors be? Andrew Sheets: So, you alluded to this a bit on our discussion yesterday that we are in a very interesting divide where you have inequality between very well-off companies and weaker companies that aren't doing as well. You have a lot of division within households between those who are, doing better and struggling more with the rate environment. But you know, I think we also see that the large deficits that the U.S. Federal government are running are in some ways largely mirrored by very, very good private sector financial positions. In aggregate U.S. households have record levels of assets relative to debt at the end of 2024; in aggregate the financial position of the U.S. equity market has never been better. And so, this is a dynamic where lending to the private sector, whether that is to parts of the residential mortgage market or to the corporate credit market, does have some advantages; where not just are you dealing with arguably a better trend of financial position, but you're just getting less issuance. I think there are a number of factors that could cause the market to cause the difference of yield between the government debt and that private sector debt – that so-called spread – to be narrower than it otherwise would be.Lisa Shalett: Well, that's a pretty interesting and provocative idea because, one of the hypotheses that we laid out in our paper is that perhaps one of the consequences of this extraordinary period of monetary stimulus of financial repression and ultra low rates, of massive regulation of the systemically important banking system, has been the explosion of shadow banks, and the private credit markets. Our thesis is they're a misallocation of capital. Has there been excess risk taking – in that area? And how should we think about that asset class, number one? And, number two, are they increasingly, a source of liquidity and issuance, or are they a drain on the system? Andrew Sheets: This is, kind of, where your discussion of normalization is is so interesting because in aggregate household balance sheets are in very good shape; in aggregate corporate balance sheets are in very good shape. But I do think there's a distinct tail of the market. Lets call it 5 percent of the high yield market, where you really are looking at a corporate capital structure that was designed for for a much lower level of rates. It was designed for maybe a immediately post COVID environment where rates were on the floor and expected to stay there for a long period of time. And so, if we are moving to an environment where Fed funds is at 3 or 4. Or as you mentioned – hey, maybe you could justify a rate even a little bit higher and not be wildly off. Well then, you just have the wrong capital structure. You have the wrong level of leverage; and it's actually hard to do much about that other than to restructure that debt, or look to change it in a larger way. So, I think we'll see a dynamic similar to the equity market – where there is less dispersion between the haves and have nots. Lisa Shalett: As we kind of think about where there could be pockets of opportunity in credit and in private credit, both public and private credit, and where there could be risks. Can you just help me with that and explore that a little bit more? Andrew Sheets: I think where credit looks most interesting is in some ways where it looks most boring. I think where the case for credit is strongest is – the investment grade market in the U.S. pays 5.25 percent. A 6 percent long run return might be competitive with certain investors' long-term equity market forecasts, or at least not a million miles off. I think though the other area where this is going to be interesting is – do we see significantly more capital intensity out of the tech sector? And a real divide between fixed income and equities is that tech has so far really been an equity story.Lisa Shalett: Correct. Andrew Sheets: But this data center build out is just enormous. I mean, through 2028, our analysts at Morgan Stanley think it's close to $3 trillion with a 't'. And so there's a lot of interest in how can credit markets, how can private credit markets fund some of this build out; and there are opportunities and risks around that. And you know, something that I think credit's going to play an interesting part of. Lisa Shalett: And in that vision do you see the blurring of lines or a more competitive market between public and private? Andrew Sheets: I do think there's always a little bit of a funny nature about credit where it's not always clear why a particular corporate loan would need to be traded every day, would need to be marked every day. I think it is a little bit different from the equity market in that way. And I think you're also seeing a level of sophistication from investors who now have the ability to traffic across these markets and move capital between these markets, depending on where they think they're being better compensated or where there's better opportunities. So, I think we're kind of absolutely seeing the blur of these lines. And again, I think private credit has until recently been somewhat synonymous with high-yield lending, riskier lending, lower rated lending. Lisa Shalett: Correct. Yeah. Andrew Sheets: And, yet, the lending that we're seeing to some of this tech infrastructure is, you could argue, maybe more similar to Investment Grade lending – both in terms of risk, but also it pays a lot less. And so again, this is kind of an interesting transition where you're seeing a broader scope and absolutely, I think, more blurring of the line between these markets. Lisa Shalett: So, let's just switch gears a little bit and pull out from credit to the broader diversified cross-asset portfolio. And some of those cross-asset correlations are starting to break down; and we go through these periods where stocks and bonds are more often than not positively correlated in moving together. How are you beginning to think about duration risk in this environment? And have you made any adjustments to how you think about portfolio construction in light of these potentially shifting changes in correlations across assets?Andrew Sheets:  I think there are kind of maybe two large takeaways I would take from this. First is I do think the big asset where we've seen the biggest change is in the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar, I think, for a lot of the period we've been discussing on these two episodes, was kind of the best of both worlds. And recently that's just really broken down. And so, I think, when we think about the reallocation to the rest of the world, the focus on diversification, I think this is absolutely something that is top of mind among non-U.S. investors that we're talking to, which is almost the U.S. equity piece is kind of a separate conversation.The other piece though, is some of this debate around yields and equities – and do equities fear higher rates or lower rates? Which one of those is the biggest problem? And there's a question of magnitude that's a little interesting here. Rates going higher might be a little bit more of a problem for the S&P 500 than rates going lower. That rates going higher might be more consistent with the scenario of temporary higher inflation. Maybe rates go lower [be]cause the market gets more excited about Federal Reserve cuts.But I think in terms of scenarios where – like where is the equity market really going to have a problem? Well, it's really going to have a problem if there's a recession. So, even though I think bonds have been less effective diversifiers, I really do think they're still going to serve a very healthy, helpful purpose around some of those potentially kind of bigger dynamics. Lisa Shalett: Yeah that very much jives with the way we've been thinking about it, particularly within the context of managing private wealth, where very often we're confronted with the, the question: What about 60-40? Is 60-40 dead? Is 60-40 back? Like, you talk about not wanting to hedge, I don't want to hedge either. But the answer to the question we agree is somewhat nuanced. Right?We do agree that this perfect world of negative correlations between stocks and bonds that we enjoyed for a good portion of the last 15 years probably is over. But that doesn't mean that bonds, and most specifically that 5 - 10 year part of the curve, doesn't have a really important role to play in portfolios. And the reason I say that is that one of the other elements of this conversation that we haven't really touched on is valuation and expected returns.I know that when I speak of the valuation-oriented topics and the CAPE ratio when expected 10-year returns, everyone's eyes glaze over and roll to the back of their head and they say, ‘Oh, here she goes again.' But look, I am in the camp that says an awful lot of growth has already been discounted and already been priced. And that it is much more likely that U.S. equities will return something closer to long run averages. So that's not awful. The lower volatility of a fixed income asset that's returning 6s and 7s has a definite role to play in portfolios for wealth clients who are by and large long term oriented investors who are not necessarily attempting to exploit 90-day volatility every quarter. Andrew Sheets:   Without putting too fine of a point on it, I think when that question of is 60-40 over is phrased, I kind of think the subtext is often that it's the bond side, the 40 side that has a problem. And not to be the Fixed Income Defender on this podcast, but you could probably more easily argue that if we're talking about, well, which valuation is more stretched, the equity side or the bond side? I think it's the equity side that has a more stretched valuation.Lisa Shalett: Without a doubt, without a doubt. Andrew Sheets:  Well, Lisa, thanks again for taking the time to talk. Lisa Shalett: Absolutely great to speak with you, Andrew, as always. Andrew Sheets: And thanks again for listening to this two-part conversation on American exceptionalism, the changes coming to that and how investors should position. And to our listeners, a reminder to take a moment to please review us wherever you listen. It helps more people find the show. And if you found this conversation insightful, tell a friend or colleague about Thoughts on the Market today.*****Lisa Shalett is a member of Morgan Stanley's Wealth Management Division and is not a member of Morgan Stanley's Research Department. Unless otherwise indicated, her views are her own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research Department and from the views of others within Morgan Stanley.

In the first of a two-part episode, Lisa Shalett, our Wealth Management CIO, and Andrew Sheets, our Head of Corporate Credit Research, discuss whether the era of “American Exceptionalism” is ending and how investors should prepare for a global market rebalancing. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Lisa Shalett: And I'm Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Andrew Sheets: Today, the first of two episodes tackling a fascinating and complex question. Is American market dominance ending? And what would that mean for investors?It's Wednesday, July 30th at 4pm in London. Lisa Shalett: And it's 11am here in New York. Andrew Sheets: Lisa, it's so great to talk to you again, and especially what we're going to talk about over these two episodes. , a theme that's been coming up regularly on this podcast is this idea of American exceptionalism. This multi-year, almost multi-decade outperformance of the U.S. economy, of the U.S. currency, of the U.S. stock market. And so, it's great to have you on the show, given that you've recently published on this topic in a special report, very topically titled American Exceptionalism: Navigating the Great Rebalancing.So, what are the key pillars behind this idea and why do you think it's so important? Lisa Shalett: Yeah. So, I think that that when you think about the thesis of American exceptionalism and the duration of time that the thesis has endured. I think a lot of investors have come to the conclusion that many of the underpinnings of America's performance are just absolutely inherent and foundational, right? They'll point to America as a, economy of innovation. A market with regulation and capital markets breadth and depth and liquidity a market guided by, , laws and regulation, and a market where, heretofore, we've had relatively decent population growth. All things that tend to lead to growth. But our analysis of the past 15 years, while acknowledging all of those foundational pillars say, ‘Wait a minute, let's separate the wheat from the chaff.' Because this past 15 years has been, extraordinary and different. And it's been extraordinary and different on at least three dimensions. One, the degree to which we've had monetary accommodation and an extraordinary responsiveness of the Fed to any crisis. Secondly, extraordinary fiscal policy and fiscal stimulus. And third, the peak of globalization a trend that in our humble opinion, American companies were among the biggest beneficiaries of exploiting, despite all of the political rhetoric that considers the costs of that globalization. Andrew Sheets: So, Lisa, let me go back then to the title of your report, which is the Great Rebalancing or navigating the Great Rebalancing. So, what is that rebalancing? What do you think kind of might be in store going forward? Lisa Shalett: The profound out performance, as you noted, Andrew, of both the U.S. dollar and American stock markets have left the world, , at an extraordinarily overweight position to the dollar and to American assets.And that's against a backdrop where we're a fraction of the population. We're 25 percent of global GDP, and even with all of our great companies, we're still only 33 percent of the profit pool. So, we were at a place where not only was everyone overweight, but the relative valuation premia of American equity assets versus equities outside or rest of world was literally a 50 percent premium. And that really had us asking the question, is that really sustainable? Those kind of valuation premiums – at a point when all of these pillars, fiscal stimulus, monetary stimulus, globalization, are at these profound inflection points. Andrew Sheets: You mentioned monetary and fiscal policy a bit as being key to supercharging U.S. markets. Where do you think these factors are going to move in the future, and how do you think that affects this rebalancing idea? Lisa Shalett: Look, I mean, I think we went through a period of time where on a relative basis, relative growth, relative rate spreads, right? The, the dispersion between what you could earn in U.S. assets and what you could earn in other places, and the hedging ratio in those currency markets made owning U.S. assets, just incredibly attractive on a relative basis. As the U.S. now kind of hits this point of inflection when the rest of the world is starting to say, okay, in an America first and an America only policy world, what am I going to do? And I think the responses are that for many other countries, they are going to invest aggressively in defense, in infrastructure, in technology, to respond to de-globalization, if you will. And I think for many of those economies, it's going to help equalize not only growth rates between the U.S. and the rest of the world, but it's going to help equalize rate differentials. Particularly on the longer end of the curves, where everyone is going to spending money. Andrew Sheets: That's actually a great segue into this idea of globalization, which again was a major tailwind for U.S. corporations and a pillar of this American outperformance over a number of years.It does seem like that landscape has really changed over the last couple of decades, and yet going forward, it looks like it's going to change again. So, with rising deglobalization with higher tariffs, what do you think that's going to mean to U.S. corporate margins and global supply chains? Lisa Shalett: Maybe I am a product of my training and economics, but I have always been a believer in comparative advantage and what globalization allowed. True free trade and globalization of supply chains allowed was for countries to exploit what they were best at – whether it was the lowest cost labor, the lowest cost of natural resources, the lowest cost inputs. And America was aggressive at pursuing those things, at outsourcing what they could to grow profit margins. And that had lots of implications. And we weren't holding manufacturing assets or logistical assets or transportation assets necessarily on our balance sheets. And that dimension of this asset light and optimized supply chains is something in a world of tariffs, in a world of deglobalization, in a world of create manufacturing jobs onshore, where that gets reversed a bit. And there's going to be a financial cost to that. Andrew Sheets: It's probably fair to say that the way that a lot of people experience American exceptionalism is in their retirement account. In your view, is this outperformance sustainable or do you think, as you mentioned, changing fiscal dynamics, changing trade dynamics, that we're also going to see a leadership rotation here? Lisa Shalett: Our thesis has been, this isn't the end of American exceptionalism, point blank, black and white. What we've said, however, is that we think that the order of magnitude of that outperformance is what's going to close, , when you start burdening, , your growth rate with headwinds, right? And so, again, not to say that that American assets can't continue to, to be major contributors in portfolios and may even, , outperform by a bit. But I don't think that they're going to be outperforming by the magnitude, kind of the 450 - 550 basis points per year compound for 15 years that we've seen. Andrew Sheets: The American exceptionalism that we've seen really since 2009, it's also been accompanied by really unprecedented market imbalances. But another dimension of these imbalances is social and economic inequality, which is creating structural, and policy, and political challenges. Do these imbalances matter for markets? And do you think these imbalances affect economic stability and overall market performance? Lisa Shalett: People need to understand what has happened over this period. When we applied this degree of monetary and fiscal, stimulus, what we essentially did was massively deleverage the private sector of America, right? And as a result, when you do that, you enable and create the backdrop for the portions of your economy who are less interest rate sensitive to continue to, kind of, invest free money. And so what we have seen is that this gap between the haves and the have nots, those who are most interest rate sensitive and those who are least interest rate sensitive – that chasm is really blown out.But also I would suggest an economic policy conundrum. We can all have points of view about the central bank, and we can all have points of view about the current chair. But the reality is if you look at these dispersions in the United States, you have to ask yourself the question, is there one central bank policy that's right for the U.S. economy? I could make the argument that the U.S. GDP, right, is growing at 5.5 percent nominal right now. And the policy rate's 4.3 percent. Is that tight?Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Lisa Shalett: I don't know, right? The economists will tell me it's really tight, Lisa – [be]cause neutral is 3. But I don't know. I don't see the constraints. If I drill down and do I say, can I see constraints among small businesses? Yeah. I think they're suffering. Do I see constraints in some of the portfolio companies of private equity? Are they suffering? Yeah. Do they need lower rates? Yeah. Do the lower two-thirds of American consumers need lower rates to access the housing market. Yeah. But is it hurting the aggregate U.S. economy? Mm, I don't know; hard to convince me. Andrew Sheets: Well, Lisa, that seems like a great place to actually end it for now and Thanks as always, for taking the time to talk. Lisa Shalett: My pleasure, Andrew. Andrew Sheets: And that brings us to the end of part one of this two-part look at American exceptionalism and the impact on equity and fixed income markets. Tomorrow we'll dig into the fixed income side of that debate.Thank you as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.*****Lisa Shalett is a member of Morgan Stanley's Wealth Management Division and is not a member of Morgan Stanley's Research Department. Unless otherwise indicated, her views are her own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research Department and from the views of others within Morgan Stanley.

In this episode, Matthieu Boisot, head of Cross-Asset, Volatility and Intraday Product Development for Quantitative Investment Strategies (QIS), sits down with Eloise Goulder, head of the Data Assets and Alpha Group at J.P. Morgan. They explore the growth in both shorter-dated options and levered ETFs, as well as the participation of retail investors in these markets. They hence discuss the importance of tracking gamma in order to understand and position for intraday market moves. Finally, they discuss the extent to which intraday and volatility alpha strategies have evolved over time, and what the future could hold.   Shownotes: Evolution of the Markets Structuring business with Rui Fernandes, Head of Structuring - here QIS Developments and the use of LLMs with Deepak Maharaj, Head of Equities and Cross Asset QIS Structuring – here Extending the trend, with JP Morgan's Lead CTA Structurer with Jagadish Chalasani, Investible Indices team – here   This episode was recorded on July 1, 2025.   The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

Shit gets fruity. This one gets sidetracked quite a bit, but Lou Sassol, Red Oxcock, Pat McCock, and the Research Department eventually squeeze the juice out of stories from the following categories:BerriesCherryCherry PickerCitrusFruit and NutFruit and VeggiesGrape

The iconic Grade I listed greenhouses at the Royal Botanic Gardens of Kew will experience a major renovation.The world-famous Palm House and Waterlily House date back to around 1848, and haven't been touched for over forty years.To hear more about the reasons behind the £60 million renovation project, and the innovative approaches to make these iconic greenhouses net zero, we spoke to Reuben Briggs, Head of Estate Projects at Kew.‘It's a really aggressive environment. The iron is starting to corrode. Some of the glass is coming loose, and we're getting lots of heat escaping.'Virtual eye clinics in shopping centres could significantly reduce waiting times, as well as support government policies ‘for a future ready NHS'.That's according to Siyabonga Ndwandwe from UCL's Research Department of Primary Care and Population Health, who joined us to discuss their latest study in more detail.According to the Association of Optometrists, during the pandemic, waits for NHS eye appointments rose sharply, resulting in a backlog.Also in this episode:-Cyberpunk 2077 is launching for Mac on July 17th-Yoga, tai chi, walking and jogging could be some of the best ways to tackle insomnia-Why the influencer behind Sylvanian Drama TikTok is getting sued Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode, Martin Lueck, co-Founder and Research Director at Aspect Capital, and formerly co-Founder of AHL, now part of MAN Group, is in discussion with Eloise Goulder, head of the Data Assets and Alpha Group at J.P. Morgan. They touch on why trend has been such a powerful market attribute through time, the power of harvesting these signals across multiple asset classes and where diversified strategies – those not correlated with momentum – still play an important part in the systematic investing process. Martin discusses the impact of machine learning, AI and LLMs on the investing process, and how the systematic investing landscape could evolve from here. Note that this episode follows an interview with Aspect CEO and co-Founder Anthony Todd in January 2024.   Shownotes  The Evolution of Systematic Strategies with Anthony Todd, CEO, Aspect Capital – Part 1 The Evolution of Systematic Strategies with Anthony Todd, CEO, Aspect Capital – Part 2   This episode was recorded on June 9, 2025.   The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

Paul Zummo, Chief Investment Officer of J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, joins Kumar Panja, EMEA head of the Capital Advisory Group at J.P. Morgan, as they celebrate 30 years of investing in hedge funds and other alternative asset classes. Zummo contrasts the early days, characterized by limited data and conventional strategies, with today's landscape, which features emerging managers along with quantitative and multi-strategy funds. With $33 billion in assets under management following the merger with the Private Bank, Zummo emphasizes the importance of robust risk management, disciplined due diligence, thorough referencing and careful cultural assessments in selecting hedge fund managers. This episode was recorded on May 22, 2025.  The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan. To find out more about our services, please contact markets.marketing@jpmorgan.com. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

For being named after something usually found in your shorts, this one runs a bit long. Sigmund Floyd regales Raoul Pud, Phil Hermuff, and the Research Department with tales of stopping short, and leaving a mark.

For being named after something usually found in your shorts, this one runs a bit long. Sigmund Floyd regales Raoul Pud, Phil Hermuff, and the Research Department with tales of stopping short, and leaving a mark.

Founded in 1987 by Toby Crabel, a former professional tennis player turned commodities trader, Crabel Capital Management has today evolved into a diversified quant manager with over $5 billion in assets. In this episode, Peter Sughrue from J.P. Morgan's Prime Financial Services Sales team sits down with Michael Pomada, president and CEO of Crabel. They discuss the importance of adapting strategies to thrive in today's complex market, with a focus on systematic trading, risk management and the growing role of technology.    This episode was recorded on May 6, 2025.   The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan. To find out more about our services, please contact markets.marketing@jpmorgan.com. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

For today's episode, host Josh Sidman sat down with Willem Buiter to discuss the dynamics of monetary systems. Our conversation was held and recorded in June of 2025.Dr. Buiter is an economist, commentator, author, and consultant. Formerly, he was Chief Economist and Special Counsel to the President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, a European multilateral development institution similar to the World Bank. Dr. Buiter also served as an External Member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. From 2010 to 2018, he was the Chief Global Economist at Citigroup, and remained an economic advisor until 2019. Being an expert in Economics, he has held numerous teaching positions at esteemed universities, such as Yale and the London School of Economics. He briefly served as a consultant for the IMF's Research Department in the 70s, and has written extensively on economic issues for publications such as the Center for Economic Policy Research, Project Syndicate, Jackson Hole Economics, as well as his books and blogs. I'd love to cover more of his impressive positions, but there are too many for this introduction alone. Dr. Buiter earned his bachelor's from the University of Cambridge, and his master's and Ph.D. from Yale, all in economics. Together, we discussed Dr. Buiter's critique of fiat currencies, his thoughts on Central Bank Digital Currencies, and why monetary policy is so important to maintaining economic stability.To check out more of our content, including our research and policy tools, visit our website: https://www.hgsss.org/

Nathalie BajosSanté publique (2024-2025)Collège de FranceAnnée 2024-2025Colloque - La production sociale des inégalités de santé : approches théoriques et données empiriques. Perspectives internationalesSession 2 : Saisir l'incorporation du social : socialisation (sociologie) et embodiment (social epidemiology)Anne McMunn : DiscussionAnne McMunnUniversity College LondonAnne McMunn is Professor of Social Epidemiology in the Research Department of Epidemiology & Public Health at UCL. Anne's research is concentrated on the social determinants of health within a life course epidemiological framework. More specifically, she investigates the influence on health and wellbeing of family care and unpaid care work, employment and social relationship characteristics, and she is also interested in how gender and socioeconomic position structure these associations. She is Co-Director of Equalise: ESRC Centre for Lifecourse Health and was recently PI of the EUROCARE international consortium investigating the impact of providing adult care at different stages of the life course across European countries in different

In this episode, Kumar Panja, EMEA head of the Capital Advisory Group at J.P. Morgan, chats with Kari Vatanen, head of Asset Allocation and Alternatives at Elo, one of the largest pension funds in Finland. They discuss the uncertain market environment, plus the importance of hedge funds and illiquid assets in diversifying portfolios. Vatanen also shares Elo's current asset allocation strategy and ways managers can engage with institutional investors.   This episode was recorded on May 30, 2025.   The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan. To find out more about our services, please contact markets.marketing@jpmorgan.com. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

In this episode, Patrick Hargreaves, CEO of AKO Capital and PM of the AKO Capital Global Fund, is in discussion with Eloise Goulder, head of the Data Assets and Alpha Group. Patrick discusses the rationale for the quality investment philosophy at AKO Capital and the 'patterns of quality' the team look to identify to source these companies (as articulated in their 2016 Quality Investing book). He also lays out the five specialized teams who work alongside the analysts on market research, forensic accounting, behavioral analysis, data science and sustainability. Finally, Patrick highlights where machine learning and LLM tools can be additive in their processes, and where the role of the human, and of judgement, remains critical.   Shownotes: https://www.akocapital.com/ https://www.akocapital.com/quality-investing/   This episode was recorded on June 6, 2025.   The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

Audience member and Patron "Fuckin' Tom" (and the lovely and charming Mrs. Fuckin' Tom) patiently tolerate multiple stories about leaks while Mr. Hatch, Eileen Yulick, Dick Rexholes and Research Department shake a few dribbles out of this one.

In this episode, Eloise Goulder, head of the Data Assets and Alpha Group at J.P. Morgan, is joined by Chris Andrew, head of Market Structure and Regulatory Change in EMEA. Together, they explore the recent pick-up in European equity volumes and turnover ratios, discussing factors including geopolitical shifts, fiscal policy changes and the evolving landscape of European capital markets.   Finally, Eloise and Chris delve into the potential for sustained outperformance, and the implications and challenges of achieving greater capital market integration via the Savings and Investments Union across Europe.    Related episodes:   Equity Concentration Risks and the Retail Investor - April 2024  An Emerging European Retail Investor - August 2023  Market Structure and the Decline in European Liquidity - March 2023    This episode was recorded on May 22, 2025.   The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan.  © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved. 

In this episode of JacquesTalk we discuss how the duo of George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb ranks among all the duos Dak Prescott has had since 2019. Then we talk about Nick Chubb and why he's a bad fit in Dallas. We end it talking about restaurant critics and one of my favorite restaurant closings.

Analyzing alternative data can be complex and challenging – but it can also be highly rewarding. In this episode, Mark Fleming-Williams, head of Data Sourcing at CFM and creator of “The Alternative Data Podcast,” speaks with Eloise Goulder, head of the Data Assets & Alpha Group at J.P. Morgan. They discuss the value of alt data, how the viability of a data set is assessed and what AI and LLMs mean for the future of the industry.  Shownotes:   https://www.cfm.com/ https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-alternative-data-podcast/id1539909575   This episode was recorded on April 29, 2025.  The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan.    © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.   

True Crime Kent was kind enough to join us yet again for a season finale episode! Special Guest Kunt Chungus joins Hum Dinger, Richard Tonsiltickler, Gabe Owners and the Research Department to discuss pre-OSHA Industrial Accidents researched on a website that, as of recently, sponsors no one involved.

In this episode, Andrew Tyler, head of Global Market Intelligence, and Federico Manicardi, head of International Market Intelligence, speak with Eloise Goulder, head of the wider Data Assets & Alpha Group. They discuss the case for a further rally in U.S. equities, which could be driven by catalysts, including corporate earnings and tariff negotiations, as well as relatively light positioning. They explain why this view may only be tactical, given risks to medium-term economic growth. And finally, they explore the state of equity markets outside the U.S., including in Europe, China and Japan.   This episode was recorded on May 30, 2025.   The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

This is the last episode before the Season 3 Finale featuring Kent Chungus! In this episode Brad the Impaler, Wesley Weaseltits, Phil Downerpants, and the Research Department are joined by special guest Mitosis!

In this episode, Edwina Lowe, product specialist in the Data Assets and Alpha Group, speaks with Eloise Goulder, head of the group. Edwina and Eloise discuss the merits of data vs. model in the systematic investing process and the extent to which both are critically important. This episode marks the 100th episode of the Trading Insights series on our Making Sense podcast channel.    This episode was recorded on April 3, 2025.   Shownotes:  To learn more about the Data Assets & Alpha Group:  https://www.jpmorgan.com/markets/market-data-intelligence   Related podcasts:  How the Bank of England harnesses AI and data AI in the macro process, with Balyasny's head of Macro Research & Chief Economist   The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

Today my guest is Prachi Mishra, who is a Professor in the Department of Economics, and Director and Head of Isaac Center for Public Policy at Ashoka University. Prior to joining Ashoka, Prachi was Chief of the Systemic Issues Division and Advisor in the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund.  We spoke about the current state of the Indian economy, India's growth trajectory, if the rupee is overvalued, India's fiscal consolidation, and much more. We also spoke about Trade, but this episode was recorded before the big tariff announcements on April 2.   Recorded March 31st, 2025. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links. Connect with Ideas of India Follow us on X Follow Shruti on X Click here for the latest Ideas of India episodes sent straight to your inbox.

Ta-Da! Look what it is . . . ! Its another long one. A long one about shorts. Gene Pool, Jack Hoff, Gabe Porn, and the Research Department learn some important lessons they forgot exactly when their hangovers cleared.

Pierre-Daniel Sarte and Thomas Lubik discuss their research on the components of productivity growth, how that growth has varied over time and across industries, and how much it will benefit from the use of artificial intelligence. Sarte and Lubik are senior advisors in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_04_09_productivity_growth

In this episode, Eloise Goulder, head of J.P. Morgan's Data Assets and Alpha Group and James Benford, chief data officer at the Bank of England, discuss the potential for data and AI to transform decision-making both at the Bank of England and across the finance industry more widely. They also discuss the impact of generative AI on market efficiency and financial stability, the balance between the use of AI and human judgement as well as the ethical considerations shaping the future of financial services.    This episode was recorded on March 19, 2025.   Shownotes:  To learn more about James Benford's role at the Bank of England: James Benford | Bank of England Further information on the Bank of England's Data and Analytics Strategy: The Bank's data and analytics strategy: a three-year roadmap | Bank of England   Disclaimer: The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

สรุปไทม์ไลน์ ทรัมป์ประกาศขึ้นภาษีอะไรไปบ้าง จับตา 2 เม.ย. สหรัฐฯ ประกาศตอบโต้ Reciprocal Tariff ไทยเสี่ยงแค่ไหน? ผลกระทบจากเหตุแผ่นดินไหวจบแล้วหรือยัง เซ็กเตอร์ไหนได้รับผลกระทบ ปรับกลยุทธ์ลงทุนอย่างไร พูดคุยกับ สุทธิชัย คุ้มวรชัย Head of Research Department บล.อินโนเวสท์ เอกซ์

สรุปไทม์ไลน์ ทรัมป์ประกาศขึ้นภาษีอะไรไปบ้าง จับตา 2 เม.ย. สหรัฐฯ ประกาศตอบโต้ Reciprocal Tariff ไทยเสี่ยงแค่ไหน?ผลกระทบจากเหตุแผ่นดินไหวจบแล้วหรือยัง เซ็กเตอร์ไหนได้รับผลกระทบ ปรับกลยุทธ์ลงทุนอย่างไร พูดคุยกับ สุทธิชัย คุ้มวรชัย Head of Research Department  บล.อินโนเวสท์ เอกซ์

In this episode, Eloise Goulder, head of the Data Assets and Alpha Group, and Lauren Anderson, head of Government Relations for EMEA, discuss the global geopolitical backdrop following a record elections year. They then dive into Europe, given the sharp outperformance of European equities year to date, addressing the extent to which geopolitical, fiscal, defense and growth developments could mark a structural shift for the region. In addition, they address challenges including tariffs, as well as the medium-term outlook for countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).   This episode was recorded on March 6, 2025.   The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

For market purists, any mention of the term industrial policy used to evoke visions of heavy-handed Soviet-style central planning, or the stifling state-centric protectionism employed by Latin American countries in the late 20th century. But that conversation turned dramatically over the last several years, as President Joe Biden's signature legislative achievements like the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act showcased policies designed to influence and shape industries ranging from tech to pharma to green energy. My guest today, Harvard Kennedy School Professor Ricardo Hausmann, is the founder and director of the Growth Lab, which studies ways to unlock economic growth and collaborates with policymakers to promote inclusive prosperity around the world. Hausmann says he believes markets are useful, but have shown themselves inadequate to create public benefits at a time when public objectives like the clean energy transition and shared prosperity have become increasingly essential to human society. In a wide-ranging conversation, we'll discuss why industrial policy is making a comeback, tools that the Growth Lab has developed to help poorer countries and regions develop and prosper, and the uncertainty being caused by President Trump's pledge to raise tariffs and protectionist barriers.Ricardo Hausmann's policy recommendations:Encourage governments to track industries that are not yet developed but have the potential for growth and monitor technological advancements to identify how new technologies can impact existing industries or create new opportunities.Develop state organizations with a deep understanding of societal trends and industrial potential, similar to Israel's office of the Chief Scientist or the U.S. Presidential Commission on Science and Technology.Encourage governments to develop a pre-approved set of tools—including training, educational programs, research programs, and infrastructure—that can be quickly mobilized for specific economic opportunities.Teach policy design in a way that mirrors medical education (e.g., learning by doing as in a teaching hospital), because successful policy design requires real-world experience, not just theoretical knowledge. Ricardo Hausmann is the founder and director of Harvard's Growth Lab and the Rafik Hariri Professor of the Practice of International Political Economy at Harvard Kennedy School. Under his leadership, the Growth Lab has grown into one of the most well regarded and influential hubs for research on economic growth and development around the world. His scholarly contributions include the development of the Growth Diagnostics and Economic Complexity methodologies, as well as several widely used economic concepts. Since launching the Growth Lab in 2006, Hausmann has served as principal investigator for more than 50 research initiatives in nearly 30 countries, including the US, informing development policy, growth strategies and diversification agendas at the national, regional, and city levels. Before joining Harvard University, he served as the first chief economist of the Inter-American Development Bank (1994-2000), where he created the Research Department. He has served as minister of planning of Venezuela (1992-1993) and as a member of the Board of the Central Bank of Venezuela. He also served as chair of the IMF-World Bank Development Committee. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Cornell University.Ralph Ranalli of the HKS Office of Communications and Public Affairs is the host, producer, and editor of HKS PolicyCast. A former journalist, public television producer, and entrepreneur, he holds an BA in political science from UCLA and a master's in journalism from Columbia University.Scheduling and logistical support for PolicyCast is provided by Lillian Wainaina. Design and graphics support is provided by Laura King of the OCPA Design Team. Web design and social media promotion support is provided by Catherine Santrock and Natalie Montaner of the OCPA Digital Team. Editorial support is provided by Nora Delaney and Robert O'Neill of the OCPA Editorial Team. 

In this episode, John Schlegel, head of Global Positioning Intelligence at J.P. Morgan, sits down with Andrew Tyler, head of the Global Market Intelligence team, to discuss the current state of the U.S. equity markets amid recent fluctuations. They examine the underlying factors contributing to the recent drawdown, including macroeconomic data, trade policy uncertainties and valuation concerns. The conversation also explores potential sector opportunities, the impact of international equities and the role of seasonality in market movements.   This episode was recorded on March 3, 2025. The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

In this episode, Eloise Goulder, head of the Data Assets & Alpha Group at J.P. Morgan, chats with Andrew Howard, head of Sustainable Investing at Schroders Asset Management. They discuss the recent drivers of sustainable investing -- from a regulatory, industry concentration, macro landscape, and data availability perspective. They also explore changes in underlying sustainability risks facing the economy, and how these trends can be incorporated into the underlying investment thesis.     This episode was recorded on November 7, 2024.   The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

In this episode, Eloise Goulder, head of the Data Assets and Alpha Group at J.P. Morgan, sits down with Rui Fernandes, global head of Markets Trading Structuring at J.P. Morgan, to explore the evolution of the trading and structuring businesses.  They delve into the key drivers of success including innovation, customization at scale and platform interoperability. They also touch on the rise of multi-asset investing, the impact of AI on product design and the importance of staying attuned to client needs in a rapidly changing financial landscape.    This episode was recorded on January 29, 2025.   The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

In this episode, the team delves into the risk and reward dynamics of U.S. equities compared to the rest of the world, following the recent comparative underperformance from the U.S. They discuss recent investor flows and positioning, and whether the recent underperformance in U.S. equities presents a “buy the dip” opportunity. They also touch on the macroeconomic environment, corporate earnings and geopolitical factors, assessing how these elements impact U.S. exceptionalism relative to Europe and the rest of the world. John Schlegel, head of Global Positioning Intelligence, and Ellen Wang, from the U.S. Market Intelligence team, are joined by Eloise Goulder, head of the wider Global Data Assets & Alpha Group. This episode was recorded on February 11, 2025. The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

This interview with Karnit Flug was on January 2, shortly after the Government of Israel released all manner of economic statistics and announced some rather significant tax tweaks. Based on my anecdotal conversations with people in the professional, VC and tech sectors, there is growing concern that the new tax measures will have the most deleterious—and disproportionate—impact on small independent businesses in Israel. Karnit Flug, as you will hear, thinks otherwise. So, I will keep an eye on how this develops. And in the coming months I intend to publish more podcasts and YouTube videos focusing on the economy. It's amazing how overlooked this critical topic has been throughout the war. Then again, our Minister of Finance is Bezalel Smotrich. He has a lot to say about annexing various territories, but he seems far less engaged when it comes to financial and economic matters. We have included in the podcast notes links to two previous podcasts with Karnit Flug, from back in the days when judicial reform was seen to be the key economic threat. Then—and perhaps more so now—Flug is very concerned with the emigration of Israel's most talented citizens to Europe, North America, anywhere but here. The pressure of serving most of the year in reserve duty, the huge stress this puts on families—and all that compounded by deep concerns with the political direction of the country and how that is impacting our economic power—well, many are voting with their feet. That trend is among the top economic issues and threats facing Israel today, in her view. Always enlightening to speak with Karnit Flug. I had intended to publish this interview in the second week of January, but then all hell broke loose, as President Trump would say. His repeated warnings that the hostage issue had better be resolved by Inauguration Day made everything else seem less urgent. This entire country was on 24/7 hostage alert. The good news is that my discussion with Karnit was very macro, so the podcast remains as relevant today as it was a few weeks ago. Tune in.Podcast Notes:Two previous State of Tel Aviv podcasts with Karnit Flug:Prof. Karnit Flug completed her five-year term as Governor of the Bank of Israel in November 2018. In March 2019 she joined the Department of Economics at the Hebrew University.As Governor, Prof. Flug oversaw the design and implementation of Israel's monetary policy and served as the Economic Advisor to the government. She was widely credited for maintaining stability and supporting growth in the Israeli economy.Prior to her appointment as Governor, Prof. Flug was the Bank of Israel's Deputy Governor from July 2011. Between July 2013 and November 2013, she served as Acting Governor.Previously, Prof. Flug became Director of the Research Department and Chief Economist of the Bank of Israel in June 2001 – a position she held for 10 years. She published numerous papers on macroeconomic policies, the labor market, balance of payments and social policies. In 1984, Prof. Flug started as an economist at the International Monetary Fund, before returning to Israel to join the Research Department of the Bank of Israel in 1988. In 1994–96, while on leave from the Bank of Israel, she worked at the Inter-American Development Bank in Washington D.C. as a Senior Research Economist.Prof. Flug‘s contribution to social and economic policies in Israel has been significant. She served on a number of public and government committees, including the Committee on Increasing Competitiveness in the Economy, the Committee for Social and Economic Change ("the Trajtenberg Committee"), the Defense Budget Prof. Flug received her M.A. (cum laude) in Economics from The Hebrew University of Jerusalem in 1980, and her Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University in 1985.In 2018, she was awarded an honorary doctorate from Tel Aviv University in recognition of her “exceptional stewardship of Israel's monetary policy and economy.” In March 2019, Prof. Flug received the “Governor of the Year" Award for 2018 by the Central Banking Publication.In each of her five years as Governor of the Bank of Israel, Prof. Flug was ranked among the top 10 central bankers in the world by Global Finance magazine.Prof. Flug is married with two children.State of Tel Aviv is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.stateoftelaviv.com/subscribe

In this episode, Kumar Panja, EMEA Head of the Capital Advisory Group at J.P. Morgan, engages in a compelling conversation with Amy Flikerski, Managing Director and Head of the External Portfolio Management at CPP Investments. Delve into the intricacies of hedge fund management for both emerging and established hedge funds with a particular focus on how to approach CPP Investments – including team structure, the investment model and strategy preferences. This episode offers a wealth of knowledge for hedge fund managers seeking to understand the intricacies of engaging with CPP Investments and navigating the current market dynamics.   To learn more about CPP Investments:   https://www.cppinvestments.com/about-us/our-investment-teams/team-capital-markets/external-portfolio-management/   This episode was recorded on November 12th, 2024.    The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan. To find out more about our services, please contact markets.marketing@jpmorgan.com.   © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved. 

In this episode, Sunny Potharaju from the Positioning Intelligence team is joined by John Schlegel, head of the Global Positioning Intelligence team at J.P. Morgan. Their discussion focuses on the strong performance of hedge funds, particularly in crowded stocks, and the potential for continued performance into 2025. John and Sunny examine the setup for U.S. equities, noting a possible upcoming "buy the dip" opportunity, while acknowledging a more uncertain medium-term outlook.  The episode concludes with broader insights into the positioning landscape in Europe and Asia.  The Positioning Intelligence team sits within the wider Data Assets & Alpha Group.   This discussion follows episodes released on: November '24 – A Post-Election Rally in U.S. Equities October '24 – How High is Positioning in U.S. Equities This episode was recorded on January 13, 2025. The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

In this episode, we hear from Chris Pulman, head of Macro Research and Chief Economist at Balyasny Asset Management. Chris discusses the role of Macro Research and Economics in creating value within the investment process; use of data, models, tech systems and generative AI within the macroeconomic space; the benefits of marrying fundamental expertise with technological processes; and the skillsets required to excel in this area. Chris is in discussion with Eloise Goulder, head of the Data Assets & Alpha Group at J.P. Morgan.   This episode was recorded on June 26th, 2024.  The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

In this episode, we hear from Debora Kantt, head of Corporate Futurism at J.P. Morgan. Debora discusses the importance of thinking ‘Future Back', in overcoming behavioral biases and training the human brain to think in a non-linear way.  She also provides examples of ‘weak signals', or seeds of future trends, across the biocomputing and affective computing fields. Debora is in discussion with Eloise Goulder, head of the Data Assets & Alpha Group at J.P. Morgan.   Shownotes: To learn more about the Data Assets & Alpha Group: https://www.jpmorgan.com/markets/market-data-intelligence   This episode was recorded on October 15, 2024. The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

In this episode we hear from Elaina Elzinga, Principal and Head of Active Manager Selection at Wellcome Trust. Elaina runs through portfolio construction when spanning investments from HFs to LOs to real assets, how use of data and AI in the investment space influences allocation decisions, and how these longer term investment goals interplay with Wellcome Trust's mission and purpose.  Elaina is in discussion with Eloise Goulder, Head of the Data Assets & Alpha Group at J.P. Morgan.     To learn more about Wellcome Trust: www.wellcome.org To learn more about the Data Assets & Alpha Group: https://www.jpmorgan.com/markets/market-data-intelligence   Related podcasts:   Asset Allocation amid Climate risks, with Fidelity International Macroeconomist – January 2024   A Macroeconomic Approach to Investing, with Fulcrum's Chief Risk Officer – February 2024   Recording date: 17 October 2024   The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

In this episode, the Data Assets & Alpha Group review recent U.S. equity strength and discuss the potential for a further rally into year-end.  They discuss implications of the U.S. elections, recent macro and micro data and sectors which look to offer better risk / reward.  They also discuss the relative underperformance of European equities and the risk / reward in China.  Andrew Tyler, head of Global Market Intelligence, and Federico Manicardi, head of International Market Intelligence, are in discussion with Eloise Goulder, head of the Global Data Assets & Alpha Group. Note that this discussion follows episodes released on: July '24 – US Equities at All-Time Highs Jun '24 – An Underperformance in European Equities   This episode was recorded on November 19, 2024.   The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan.

In this episode, we hear from Deepak Maharaj, Head of Equities and Cross Asset QIS Structuring at J.P. Morgan. Deepak discusses the rapid development of Equities QIS strategies - from the technology enhancements to the use of LLMs in product development - and where this space is likely to evolve in future. Deepak is in discussion with Eloise Goulder, Head of the Data Assets & Alpha Group at J.P. Morgan.   Shownotes: To learn more about the Data Assets & Alpha Group: https://www.jpmorgan.com/markets/market-data-intelligence   Related podcasts: Extending the trend, with JP Morgan's Lead CTA Structurer Time Traveler: A Look Back in Time with Fredrik Giertz – Part 1 Time Traveler: A Look Back in Time with Fredrik Giertz – Part 2   This episode was recorded on October 7, 2024. The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan.

Dive into the world of early-stage hedge fund investing with Kumar Panja, EMEA Head of Capital Advisory Group and Sam Diedrich, Managing Director and Head of Absolute Return at Partners Capital Investment Group. Uncover strategies for emerging managers, the power of SMAs, and the art of probabilistic thinking. Perfect for aspiring managers and savvy investors seeking a competitive edge. This episode was recorded on July 16, 2024. The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan. To find out more about our services, please contact markets.marketing@jpmorgan.com

In this episode we hear from John Schlegel regarding how high positioning looks post the stellar rally in US equities.  John discusses the recent drivers of US equity strength, the main buyers of the rally so far, where this leaves positioning, and the risk / reward for equities from here.  John also touches on equity positioning across Europe and APAC.  John Schlegel, Head of Global Positioning Intelligence is in discussion with Eloise Goulder, Head of the Global Data Assets & Alpha Group.   This episode was recorded on October 14, 2024 The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan.

In this episode we hear from Matt Jones, Global Portfolio Manager at Fidelity International. Matt discusses the intersection of quant techniques with the fundamental investment process, the benefits and challenges of this approach and the evolution data use in this strategy over the last two decades. Matt Jones is in discussion with Eloise Goulder, Head of the Data Assets & Alpha Group at JP Morgan.   This episode was recorded on September 9, 2024. The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan.

(Conversation recorded on July 30th, 2024)   The science surrounding our planet's dynamic and complex climate can be difficult to understand, and perhaps even more challenging to decipher what the actual realities and trajectories are among so much media coverage. Yet the study of Earth's systems has been ongoing for decades, with a majority of scientists reaching a consensus on the realities of human-driven global heating.  In this episode, ocean and climate physicist Stefan Rahmstorf joins Nate for an overview on the most common questions and misconceptions concerning the state of the climate, including the nuances of what our future planetary home might look like.  How can carbon dioxide – which makes up such a small percentage of the atmosphere –  have such a large effect on the temperature of the whole planet? Why does warming have such huge ripple effects across the biosphere –  from ocean currents and wind patterns to extreme weather and wildfires? What do projections for the future tell us about the survivability of some of Earth's most populated regions – and how can communities and nations prepare and mitigate these challenges amid many other converging crises we face?    About Stefan Rahmstorf: Stefan Rahmstorf is Co-Head of the Research Department on Earth System Analysis of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Professor of Ocean Physics at the University of Potsdam. His research focuses on paleoclimate, ocean circulation, sea level, extreme weather events and Earth System modeling.  After working at the New Zealand Oceanographic Institute and the Institute of Marine Science in Kiel, Stefan Rahmstorf joined PIK in 1996. From 2004 to 2013 Stefan Rahmstorf advised the German government as a member of its Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU). He is not only an outstanding and highly cited scientist but also a sought-after science communicator and speaker, winning the Climate Communication Prize of the American Geophysical Union in 2017.    Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Discord channel and connect with other listeners  

“One thing people don't realize is that the goal of disinformation is not simply to get you to believe a falsehood. It's to demoralize you into giving up on the idea of truth, to polarize us around factual issues, to get us to distrust people who don't believe the same lie. And even if somebody doesn't believe the lie, it can still make them cynical. I mean, we've all had friends who don't even watch the news anymore. There's a chilling quotation from Holocaust historian Hannah Arendt about how when you always lie to someone, the consequence is not necessarily that they believe the lie, but that they begin to lose their critical faculties, that they begin to give up on the idea of truth, and so they can't judge for themselves what's true and what's false anymore. That's the scary part, the nexus between post-truth and autocracy. That's what the authoritarian wants. Not necessarily to get you to believe the lie. But to give up on truth, because when you give up on truth, then there's no blame, no accountability, and they can just assert their power. There's a connection between disinformation and denial.”Lee McIntyre is a Research Fellow at the Center for Philosophy and History of Science at Boston University and a Senior Advisor for Public Trust in Science at the Aspen Institute. He holds a B.A. from Wesleyan University and a Ph.D. in Philosophy from the University of Michigan. He has taught philosophy at Colgate University, Boston University, Tufts Experimental College, Simmons College, and Harvard Extension School (where he received the Dean's Letter of Commendation for Distinguished Teaching). Formerly Executive Director of the Institute for Quantitative Social Science at Harvard University, he has also served as a policy advisor to the Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard and as Associate Editor in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. His books include On Disinformation and How to Talk to a Science Denier and the novels The Art of Good and Evil and The Sin Eater.https://leemcintyrebooks.comwww.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/730833/on-disinformation-by-lee-mcintyrehttps://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262545051/https://leemcintyrebooks.com/books/the-art-of-good-and-evil/https://leemcintyrebooks.com/books/the-sin-eater/www.creativeprocess.infowww.oneplanetpodcast.orgIG www.instagram.com/creativeprocesspodcast

How do we fight for truth and protect democracy in a post-truth world? How does bias affect our understanding of facts?Lee McIntyre is a Research Fellow at the Center for Philosophy and History of Science at Boston University and a Senior Advisor for Public Trust in Science at the Aspen Institute. He holds a B.A. from Wesleyan University and a Ph.D. in Philosophy from the University of Michigan. He has taught philosophy at Colgate University, Boston University, Tufts Experimental College, Simmons College, and Harvard Extension School (where he received the Dean's Letter of Commendation for Distinguished Teaching). Formerly Executive Director of the Institute for Quantitative Social Science at Harvard University, he has also served as a policy advisor to the Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard and as Associate Editor in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. His books include On Disinformation and How to Talk to a Science Denier and the novels The Art of Good and Evil and The Sin Eater.“One thing people don't realize is that the goal of disinformation is not simply to get you to believe a falsehood. It's to demoralize you into giving up on the idea of truth, to polarize us around factual issues, to get us to distrust people who don't believe the same lie. And even if somebody doesn't believe the lie, it can still make them cynical. I mean, we've all had friends who don't even watch the news anymore. There's a chilling quotation from Holocaust historian Hannah Arendt about how when you always lie to someone, the consequence is not necessarily that they believe the lie, but that they begin to lose their critical faculties, that they begin to give up on the idea of truth, and so they can't judge for themselves what's true and what's false anymore. That's the scary part, the nexus between post-truth and autocracy. That's what the authoritarian wants. Not necessarily to get you to believe the lie. But to give up on truth, because when you give up on truth, then there's no blame, no accountability, and they can just assert their power. There's a connection between disinformation and denial.”https://leemcintyrebooks.comwww.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/730833/on-disinformation-by-lee-mcintyrehttps://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262545051/https://leemcintyrebooks.com/books/the-art-of-good-and-evil/https://leemcintyrebooks.com/books/the-sin-eater/www.creativeprocess.infowww.oneplanetpodcast.orgIG www.instagram.com/creativeprocesspodcast

Lisa Shalett is a member of Morgan Stanley's Wealth Management Division and is not a member of Morgan Stanley's Research Department. Unless otherwise indicated, her views are her own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research Department and from the views of others within Morgan Stanley. Our CIO for Wealth Management, Lisa Shalett, and our Head of Corporate Credit Research continue their discussion of the impact of interest rates on different asset classes, the high concentration of value in equity markets and more.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market, and to part two of a conversation with Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley wealth management. I'm Andrew Sheets, head of corporate credit research at Morgan Stanley.Today, we'll be continuing that conversation, focusing on how higher interest rates could impact asset classes, and also some recent work about the unusually high concentration of stocks within the equity market.We begin with Lisa's very topical question about how higher interest rates might impact credit. Lisa Shalett: So, Andrew, let me ask you this. From your perspective as the Global Head of Corporate Credit Research, what happens if we're, in fact, in this new regime of rates being higher for longer? Andrew Sheets: Yeah, thanks, Lisa. It seems more topical by the day as we see yields continuing to march higher. So I think like a lot of things in the market, it kind of depends a little bit on what the fundamental backdrop is that's driving those interest rates higher. Because if I think about the modern era for credit, which I'll define as maybe the last 40 years, the tightest that we've ever seen corporate credit spreads was not when the Fed or the European central bank was buying bonds. It was not when you had lots of leverage building up in the financial system prior to the financial crisis. It was in the mid 90s when the economy was pretty good. The Fed had hiked rates a lot in [19]94 and then it cut them a little. And, you know, the mid nineties, I think, are one of the poster children for, kind of, a higher for longer rate environment amidst a pretty strong economy. So, if that is what we're looking at, we're looking at rates being higher for longer because the economic output of the US and other regions is generally stronger. I think that's an environment where you can have the overall credit market performing still pretty well. You'll certainly have dispersion around that as not every balance sheet, not every capital structure was planned, was created with that sort of rate environment in mind.Overall, if you had to say, is credit more afraid of a kind of higher for longer scenario or is it more afraid of, growth being a lot weaker than expected, but that would bring low rates. I actually think a lot of credit investors would much rather have a more stable growth environment, even if that brings somewhat fewer rate cuts and higher for longer rates.Lisa Shalett: One other thing, I know that the Global Investment Committee has been debating is this idea between the haves and the have nots that's been somewhat unique to this business cycle where, there's been a portion of the mega cap and large cap universes who have demonstrated, quite frankly, total insensitivity to interest rates because of their cash balances. Or because of their lack of need for actual borrowing. And then there's smaller midsize companies, these smaller cap or unprofitable tech companies, some of the companies that may have been born in the venture capital boom of the early 2020s. How is this have, have not, debate playing out in the credit markets? Are there parts of the credit markets that are starting to worry that there's a tail?Andrew Sheets: Yeah, I think that's just a fascinating question at the moment because we've lived in this very macro world where it seemed like big picture questions about central banks: Will we go into recession? What will commodity prices do is driving everything. And even this week, questions about interest rates are dominating the headlines on TV and on the news.But I think if you peel things back a little bit, this is an incredibly micro market, you know, we're seeing some of the lowest correlations and co-movement between individual stocks in the US and Europe that we haven't in 15 years. If I think about the credit market, the credit market is not just sailing into this environment, happy go lucky, no risk on the horizon. It's showing some of the highest tiering that we've seen in a very long time between CCC rated issuers, which is the lowest rated, main part of performing credit and Single-B issuers, which are still below investment grade rated, but are somewhat better. Market is charging a very high price premium between those two, which suggests that it is exactly as you mentioned, differentiating based on business model strength and level of leverage and the likes.So, this environment of differentiation -- where the overall market is kind of okay, but you have lots of churning below the surface -- I think it's a very accurate description of credit. I think it's a very accurate description of the broader market, and it's certainly something that we're seeing investors take advantage of we see it in the data.Andrew Sheets: Lisa, you recently published a special report on the consequences of concentration, which focuses on some of these mega cap stocks and how they may present underappreciated risks for investors. What were the key takeaways from that that we should keep in mind when it comes to market concentration and how should we think about that?Lisa Shalett: The fundamental point we were trying to make -- and it really has to do with some of the unintended risks potentially that passive investors may be embracing that they don't fully appreciate -- is really through the end of 2023, US equity indices became extraordinarily, concentrated; where the top 10 names were accounting for greater than, a third of the market capitalization. And history has shown that such high levels of concentration are rarely sustainable. But what was particularly unique about the era of the Magnificent Seven or these top 10 mega cap tech stocks is not only were they a huge portion of the whole index, but in many ways they had become correlated to one another, right? Both, in terms of their trading dynamics and their valuations, but in terms of their factor exposures, right? They were all momentum oriented. They were all tech stocks. They were all moving on an AI, narrative. In many cases, they had begun competing with each other; one another directly in businesses, like the cloud, like streaming services and media, et cetera.Andrew Sheets: And Lisa, kind of further on that idea, I assume that one counterpoint that you get to this work is that some of these very large mega cap names are just great companies. They've got strong competitive positions; they've got opportunities for future growth. As an investor, how do you think about how much you are supposed to pay up for quality, so to speak? And, you know, maybe you could talk just a little bit more about how you see the valuations of some of these larger names in the market.Lisa Shalett: What we always remind clients is, there is no doubt that, these are great companies and they have phenomenal, cash flows, phenomenal profit growth. footprints, dominant positions, and markets that are growing. But the question is twofold. When is that story fully discounted, right?And when do great companies cease to be great stocks? And if you look back in history, history is littered with great companies who cease to be great stocks and very often, clients quote unquote never saw it coming because they hung their hat on this idea, but it's a great company.Andrew Sheets: Any parting thoughts as we move closer to the midpoint for 2024?Lisa Shalett: The line that I'm using most with clients is that, I fundamentally believe that uncertainty in terms of the economic scenarios that could play out from here. Whether we're talking about a no landing, we're talking about a hard landing, we talk about a stagflation. And the policy responses to that, whether it's the timing of the Fed, and what they do. And what's their mix between balance sheet and rates, and then what happens post the presidential elections in the US. And is there a policy change that shifts some of the growth drivers in the economy. I just think overall uncertainty is rising through the end of the year, and that continues to argue, for a position as we've noted, where clients and their advisors are particularly active towards risk management, and where the premium to diversification is above average. Andrew Sheets: Lisa, thanks for taking the time to talk. Hope we can have you back again soon.Lisa Shalett: It's great to speak with you, as always, Andrew.Andrew Sheets: As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts in the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you get your podcasts. 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