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Emil Verner is an associate professor of finance at MIT Sloan and is a research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Emil has written widely on financial stability, banking panics, and credit booms, and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these issues. Specifically, David and Emil also discuss the causes and policy implications of bank failures, the shortcomings of the Diamond-Dybvig model of bank runs, how financial crises spur the rise of populism, and much more. Transcript for this week's episode. Register now for Building a Better Fed Framework: The AIER Monetary Conference. Emil's Twitter: @EmilVerner Emil's website David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Related Links: *Failing Banks* by Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner *Banking Crises Without Panics* by Matthew Baron, Emil Verner, and Wei Xiong *Financial Crisis, Creditor-Debor Conflict, and Populism* by Gyozo Gyongyosi and Emil Verner *Fragile by Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit* by Charles Calomiris and Stephen Haber *Going to Extremes: Politics After Financial Crises, 1870-2014* by Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularick, and Christoph Trebesch Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:03:45) – Why Do We Care About Banking Panics and Financial Stability? (00:05:42) – Breaking Down the Causes of Bank Failures and its Policy Implications (00:13:38) – Exploring the Historical Banking Data (00:15:59) – *Failing Banks*: Key Findings and Takeaways (00:24:00) – *Banking Crises Without Panics* (00:28:05) – Responding to the Diamond-Dybvig Model of Bank Runs (00:33:29) – Applying the Bank Solvency Story to the Great Financial Crisis (00:36:16) – The Impact of Credit Booms (00:40:56) – What Are the Necessary Policy Prescriptions? (00:43:08) – Why is Diamond-Dybvig So Popular? (00:47:01) – *Financial Crisis, Creditor-Debtor Conflict, and Populism* (00:52:55) – How Do We Stem the Tide of Populism in the Future? (00:54:36) – Outro
Luke Gromen, founder of FFTT, joins The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the macro picture and the sovereign debt bubble that's bursting in the U.S. In this episode, Gromen makes a case that he thinks this is the year where the consensus realizes the Federal Reserve as a “shadow third mandate,” which is the Treasury market functioning. He explains the concept of fiscal dominance and its implications for the economy, including higher inflation and a weaker dollar. Gromen predicts that there will not be a recession in 2024 due to the Fed's focus on maintaining the functioning of the treasury market. He recommends investing in gold, Bitcoin, and industrials as these assets are likely to perform well in the current environment. Gromen also discusses potential scenarios that could avoid the negative outcomes of the sovereign debt bubble. Links: https://fftt-llc.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/lukegromen Dr. Charles Calomiris' paper on fiscal dominance: https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/2023/10/02/fiscal-dominance-and-the-return-of-zero-interest-bank-reserve-requirements.pdf Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction and macro view 1:40 The Fed has a “shadow third mandate” 3:54 Fiscal dominance and its symptoms 9:24 Realization of fiscal dominance by the consensus 14:10 No recession in 2024 21:31 It's a new Great Depression 26:00 Investment Opportunities: gold, Bitcoin, and industrials 35:19 Avoiding the scenario 40:05 Conclusion and parting thoughts
Dr. Charles Calomiris, Henry Kaufman Professor of Financial Institutions Emeritus at Columbia Business School, joins The Julia La Roche Show to discuss his recent paper, Fiscal Dominance and the Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements. In this episode, Dr. Calomiris examines the state of the economy in the near-term and longer-term, as well as the fiscal challenges facing the U.S. According to Dr. Calomiris, there's a significant probability of a fiscal dominance problem arriving in the next decade. Fiscal dominance is the need for the government to fund its deficits on the margin with non-interest-bearing debts, also known as "inflation taxation." He points out the need for political leadership and accountability in addressing the unsustainable promises of entitlement spending. Dr. Calomiris explains what could trigger panic in the bond market and the potential solutions, including taxing the banking system. He also discusses the implications of such policies on the banking system and the broader economy. Overall, he emphasizes the importance of addressing the long-term fiscal challenges to avoid a crisis in the future. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and background 01:01 Short-run and long-run perspective of the economy 03:23 The dysfunctional state of the economy, the blame is ours 06:37 Generational government accounting and political responsibility 10:06 We are not a grown-up society right now 11:20 Debt situation in the U.S. 13:53 The point of no return? 17:50 Less than a decade to make the political decision 19:50 Deficits, recessionary environment, and the consequences 23:00 Signs to look out for in the bond market 24:40 Fiscal Dominance and its definition 27:30 Will the government tax the banking system into almost oblivion? 28:50 Taxing the banking system and the inflation tax 34:00 If nothing changes, how implied annual inflation could be 35-40% 37:00 Fed could raise reserve requirements and pay zero interest to expand the inflation tax base, lower implied inflation rate 40:00 Impact on the banking system 46:17 The power of the Federal Reserve 51:00 Bitcoin 54:19 Parting Thoughts and Advice Links: Fiscal Dominance and the Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements Fragile By Design The Political Origins of Banking Crisis and Scarce Credit
He's been a consultant, an expert on the financial sector, and now lives a life of the mind. Harsh Vardhan joins Amit Varma in episode 352 of The Seen and the Unseen to discuss his life and learnings. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out: 1. Harsh Vardhan on The Leap Blog, Ideas for India, Money Control and Bloomberg Quint. 2. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen with Ajay Shah: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13. 3. Gabriel García Márquez, Isabel Allende, Mario Vargas Llosa and VS Naipaul on Amazon. 4. BS Mardhekar on Wikipedia and Amazon. 5. Vijay Tendulkar (Wikipedia, Amazon) and Mahesh Elkunchwar (Wikipedia, Amazon). 6. Mirza Ghalib on Wikipedia and Rekhta. 7. The Life and Times of Abhinandan Sekhri — Episode 254 of The Seen and the Unseen. 8. What Really Happened? — Lawrence H White on the 2008 Financial Crisis. 9. Fragile by Design -- Charles Calomiris and Stephen Haber. 10. The post-pandemic credit landscape in India -- Rajeswari Sengupta and Harsh Vardhan. 11. ‘Consumerisation' of banking in India: Cyclical or structural? -- Rajeswari Sengupta and Harsh Vardhan. 12. A decade of credit collapse in India -- Harsh Vardhan. 13. Thinking about financial sector reforms in India -- Rajeswari Sengupta and Harsh Vardhan. 14. The Metamorphosis -- Franz Kafka. 15. Lord of the Flies -- William Golding. 16. Human -- Michael Gazzaniga. 17. The Blank Slate -- Steven Pinker. 18. Thinking, Fast and Slow -- Daniel Kahneman. 19. Murali Neelakantan Looks at the World -- Episode 329 of The Seen and the Unseen. 20. Who Is Bharat Mata? -- Edited by Purushottam Agrawal. 21. Kishori Amonkar and Kumar Gandharva on Spotify. 22. The Wonder That Was India -- AL Basham. 23. Romila Thapar on Amazon. 24. Desert Island Discs on BBC. Amit Varma and Ajay Shah have launched a new video podcast. Check out Everything is Everything on YouTube. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! Episode art: ‘Bank on Him' by Simahina.
Could the fusion of traditional finance and cryptocurrency be the next big leap? Join us as we explore PayPal's innovative step with PayPal USD. We'll demystify this groundbreaking stablecoin, backed 100% by government securities, showcasing its potential to transform trades and global transactions. Drawing on insights from Patrick McHenry, and Brian Brooks & Charles Calomiris, we'll explore how stablecoins might just reshape global trade dynamics and even tackle monumental issues like poverty.Subscribe to podcast updates: https://form.jotform.com/223614751580152Ask Ric: https://www.thetayf.com/pages/ask-ricRic's Books: https://www.amazon.com/stores/Ric-Edelman/author/B000APYJPM-----Links from today's show:What is PayPal USD (PYUSD)?: https://www.paypal.com/us/cshelp/article/what-is-paypal-usd-pyusd-help1005Self-Care with Jean Edelman: http://www.selfcarewithjean.com/Follow Ric on social media:Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/RicEdelmanInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/ric_edelman/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ricedelman/X (formerly Twitter): https://twitter.com/ricedelman YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@RicEdelmanBrought to you by:Global X ETFs: https://www.globalxetfs.com/Invesco QQQ: https://www.invesco.com/qqq-etf/en/home.htmlPrisidio: https://www.prisid.io/Schwab: https://www.schwab.com/Disclosure page: https://www.thetayf.com/pages/sponsorship-disclosure-fee-----
In Episode 323 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with the former Chief Economist at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Director of the Center for Politics, Economics, and History at the University of Texas at Austin, Charles Calomiris about his recently published paper “Fiscal Dominance and the Return of Zero-Interest Bank Reserve Requirements.” In the paper, Dr. Calomiris considers the possibility that the United States government will enact new and more onerous forms of financial repression, including commandeering the US banking system to fund unsustainably high debt and deficit payments that would otherwise lead to a sovereign debt crisis. In the first hour, Calomiris and Kofinas discuss the history of US bank policy and the unique characteristics of the American political economy that inform how the nation responds to political crises and the populist temptation to resolve them through the US banking system. The second hour is devoted to a discussion about when and how such measures will be taken to resolve an impending fiscal debt crisis that professor Calomiris believes is inevitable. They discuss what the signposts for such an impending crisis could be, the tradeoffs that an economy operating under the conditions of fiscal dominance would have to make, how such a period of fiscal dominance could end (i.e., either through a prolonged period of double-digit inflation or a full-blown debt crisis), and what role fintech, crypto, and other forms of decentralized finance will play in such an economy given the government's need to fund itself without losing complete control over inflation. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports (or Key Takeaways) at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 08/09/2023
In economics and in finance, we're always trying to tease out timeless rules of how markets work. And yet, when we look out in the world, there's a lot of politics, there's a lot of history, there's a lot of particularity. Our guest today emphasizes the importance of narrative, individual case analysis, and historical exploration. Charlie Calomiris is Henry Kaufman Professor of Financial Institutions at Columbia Business School, Director of the Business School's Program for Financial Studies Initiative on Finance and Growth in Emerging Markets, and a professor at Columbia's School of International and Public Affairs. His research spans the areas of banking, corporate finance, financial history and monetary economics, and he co-authored the book “Fragile by Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit” with Stephen Haber.Today he chats with Greg about banking systems, Adam Smith, the medieval view of the corporation, bank bargains and the political origins of the subprime crisis.Episode Quotes:On our unstable economyYou know what I tell people, I said, you want to know why we have such an unstable economy? Look in the mirror, look in the mirror. You're the reason, you vote for these people and you do it on purpose because they've got you bamboozled.US vs CanadaI would describe the U.S. as a Federalist constitution. And I would describe the Canadian constitution as an anti-federalist constitution.On monopoly rentsThe way that we like to get there is to say to people, look, If you're trying to create a banking system, you need people to actually contribute the capital for banks. You need the banks to be willing to lend the capital. You need people to contribute to deposits for banks too. And so when you go through those participation constraints, you quickly realize that there are two solutions.Show Links:Guest Profile:Faculty Profile at Columbia Business SchoolProfessional Profile at Cornerstone ResearchSpeaker's Profile at AAE SpeakersCharles Calomiris on TwitterCharles Calomiris at the 79th International Atlantic Economic Conference in Milan, Italy.His Work:Charles Calomiris on Google ScholarFragile by Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce CreditChina's Financial Transition at a CrossroadsA Globalist Manifesto for Public PolicyU.S. Bank Deregulation in Historical Perspective
What explains the explosion in growth and prosperity that humanity has experienced in the past couple centuries? Why did that process take root more readily in some places than in others, and how can its spread be encouraged? Professors Deirdre McCloskey and Stephen Haber will provide separate accounts. McCloskey will contest standard economic explanations and describe the key role of liberal ideas, ideology, and ethics in producing the conditions for human flourishing. Haber will explain how differing ecological factors influenced social organization centuries ago, conditioning subsequent paths of economic growth and institutional development. Charles Calomiris will lead the conversation, exploring the extent to which these views are complementary, the reach of their explanatory power, and how the social sciences and politics should think about the mainsprings of human progress.The discussion will be based on new research papers that McCloskey and Haber presented at an academic colloquium at the Cato Institute as part of Cato's Exploring the Role of Freedom in Human Progress project. This project was made possible through the support of a grant from the John Templeton Foundation. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
How can natural language processing keep the Fed from using obfuscating language? Charles Calomiris comments See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
McAlvany Weekly Commentary Charles Calomiris joins the weekly commentary – CLICK HERE to buy Charle’s book – Fragile by Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit (The Princeton Economic History of the Western World) All banking is politically driven Cryptos may replace central banks but they will be government controlled People vote their most recent […] The post Charles Calomiris: All Banking Is Politically Driven appeared first on McAlvany Weekly Commentary.
Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary says British Airways' problems lie in its disaster recovery program, not outsourcing. Prior to that, Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup's chief U.S. equity strategist, says a lack of productivity is disturbing. Charles Calomiris, a professor at Columbia Business School, says Trump's instincts on financial regulation are right, even though his ideas aren't fully formed. David Herro, Harris Associates' CIO of International Equity, says we've been using monetary policy incorrectly and relying on it too much. Finally, Graham Allison, a professor at Harvard's Kennedy School, says ensuring that NATO is a good partner with the U.S. will be difficult and take a long time. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary says British Airways' problems lie in its disaster recovery program, not outsourcing. Prior to that, Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup's chief U.S. equity strategist, says a lack of productivity is disturbing. Charles Calomiris, a professor at Columbia Business School, says Trump's instincts on financial regulation are right, even though his ideas aren't fully formed. David Herro, Harris Associates' CIO of International Equity, says we've been using monetary policy incorrectly and relying on it too much. Finally, Graham Allison, a professor at Harvard's Kennedy School, says ensuring that NATO is a good partner with the U.S. will be difficult and take a long time.
Charles Calomiris, an economics professor at Columbia Business School, says central banks' negative rates policy is idiotic. Edward Conard, author of "The Upside of Inequality: How Good Intentions Undermine the Middle Class," on saving America's Middle Class. Louise Yamada Technical Research's Louise Yamada says the Fed is keeping equities propped up. Brian Kelly, founding CEO of The Points Guy, says the Starwood program won't go away anytime soon. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
Charles Calomiris, an economics professor at Columbia Business School, says central banks' negative rates policy is idiotic. Edward Conard, author of "The Upside of Inequality: How Good Intentions Undermine the Middle Class," on saving America's Middle Class. Louise Yamada Technical Research's Louise Yamada says the Fed is keeping equities propped up. Brian Kelly, founding CEO of The Points Guy, says the Starwood program won't go away anytime soon.
Research shows that small business creation tends to be an engine for economic growth. Every big business today was once yesterday's small business. To grow successfully, a small business needs access to credit but when a foreign bank enters into a new country, what happens to small business's ability to borrow money? The new financial institutions may prefer to deal with more established credit risks and make it difficult for aspiring entrepreneurs to borrow money. Or, they could increase competition and create cheaper access to credit. So what does foreign banking end up doing to lower-income countries as it pertains to development? We talk with Charles Calomiris of Columbia University to see what the effect of foreign banking is on entrepreneurship. **Stay tuned after the credits when we have a song Charles recorded with his band Electiontricity about Donald Trump**
In the wake of the 2008–2009 financial crisis a pervasive view began to emerge of banking as an inherently unstable occupation that must be tightly regulated and monitored by government agencies. Charles Calomiris and co-author Stephen Haber overturn this notion by presenting an inconvenient truth: not all countries suffer systemic banking crises. Some countries have managed to create a system that provides abundant credit without the propensity for banks to fail. So what is their secret? The answer is equally simple: The well-being of a banking sector depends on the ability of political institutions to limit rent-seeking by populist groups. Join the Cato Institute for a lively discussion of the true causes of the financial crisis and whether in light of the evidence presented by the authors the antidote (Dodd-Frank) causes more problems than it solves. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Charles Calomiris, a professor at Columbia Business School, joins Tom to discuss his new book Fragile by Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit.
Tom Sutcliffe discusses money with the American economist Charles Calomiris, who looks back at the history of financial disasters and argues that they're caused more by government failures, than individual bankers. The former head of the Financial Services Authority, Adair Turner, might agree on the need for structural changes, but famously said 'heads should roll' in the banking industry, and has damned much of the banks' trading activities as 'socially useless'. If there has been a moral vacuum at the heart of the banking industry, are there lessons to be learnt from Islamic banking? The financial advisor Harris Irfan believes it's a system that is more equitable and transparent. Seventy five years ago Steinbeck's great depression novel, Grapes of Wrath, was published and Maggie Gee explores its legacy and asks where the wrath is now? Producer: Katy Hickman.
Charles Calomiris of Columbia University and Stephen Haber of Stanford University, co-authors of Fragile by Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit, talk with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about their book. The conversation focuses on how politics and economics interact to give some countries such as Canada a remarkably stable financial system while others such as the United States have a much less stable system. The two authors discuss the political forces that explain the persistence of seemingly bad financial regulation. The conversation includes a discussion of the financial crisis of 2008.
Charles Calomiris of Columbia University and Stephen Haber of Stanford University, co-authors of Fragile by Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit, talk with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about their book. The conversation focuses on how politics and economics interact to give some countries such as Canada a remarkably stable financial system while others such as the United States have a much less stable system. The two authors discuss the political forces that explain the persistence of seemingly bad financial regulation. The conversation includes a discussion of the financial crisis of 2008.
ENGAGING STUDENTS IN THE NATION'S FISCAL CHALLENGES moderated by ELIZABETH WILLEN, Director of the Hechinger Institute on Education and the Media featuring special guests CHARLES CALOMIRIS, Columbia Business School JUDITH JOHNSON, former superintendent, Peekskill schools PETER ORSZAG, Vice Chairman of Global Banking, Citigroup, and Bloomberg View columnist PETER G. PETERSON, former US Secretary of Commerce
Charles Calomiris of Columbia University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about corporate debt, capital requirements, and financial regulation. This is an in-depth conversation about how debt works on a firm's balance sheet and the risks that debt vs. equity pose for the survival of the firm. Calomiris applies these insights to financial regulation--how it works in practice and the firm's choices in responding to various interventions including bailouts and capital requirements. The conversation closes with a discussion of some of the government interventions in the financial crisis.
Charles Calomiris of Columbia University talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about corporate debt, capital requirements, and financial regulation. This is an in-depth conversation about how debt works on a firm's balance sheet and the risks that debt vs. equity pose for the survival of the firm. Calomiris applies these insights to financial regulation--how it works in practice and the firm's choices in responding to various interventions including bailouts and capital requirements. The conversation closes with a discussion of some of the government interventions in the financial crisis.
Charles Calomiris of Columbia Business School talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the financial crisis. Calomiris argues that it is important to put the crisis in historical perspective in the context of other bank crises. He argues that bank crises differ widely across time and place--some times and some places are placid, others are prone to regular crises. Calomiris argues that frequent episodes of failure are tied to government guarantees such as various forms of deposit insurance or similar incentives for risk-taking. Looking at the current crisis, Calomiris indicts "too big to fail," the government's reliance on ratings agencies as a measure of risk, and poor corporate governance as the key causes.
Charles Calomiris of Columbia Business School talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the financial crisis. Calomiris argues that it is important to put the crisis in historical perspective in the context of other bank crises. He argues that bank crises differ widely across time and place--some times and some places are placid, others are prone to regular crises. Calomiris argues that frequent episodes of failure are tied to government guarantees such as various forms of deposit insurance or similar incentives for risk-taking. Looking at the current crisis, Calomiris indicts "too big to fail," the government's reliance on ratings agencies as a measure of risk, and poor corporate governance as the key causes.
Dr. Charles Calomiris joins Dr. Scott Bauguess and Dr. Cesare Fracassi to discuss FinTech. Charles W. Calomiris is the Henry Kaufman Professor of Financial Institutions at Columbia Business School and a Professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia's School of International and Public Affairs. He recently served as Chief Economist and Senior Deputy Comptroller at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Professor Calomiris is a member of the Financial Economists Roundtable, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was a Distinguished Fellow at the Hoover Institution, where he co-directed the Initiative on Regulation and the Rule of Law for many years. Professor Calomiris received a BA in economics from Yale and a PhD in economics from Stanford University. His research spans banking, monetary economics, corporate finance and financial history. His recent writings include studies using textual analysis to measure the consequences of risk for international equity markets, foreign exchange markets, regulatory costs, and monetary policy actions, studies of the consequences for investment and growth of capital inflows into emerging economies, and studies of the origins of banking crises and the role of government policies in magnifying or mitigating systemic risk, including his recent books, Fragile By Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit (with Stephen Haber), Princeton, 2014, and Reforming Financial Regulation After Dodd-Frank, Manhattan Institute, 2017, and two edited volumes, Rules for the Lender of Last Resort, Journal of Financial Intermediation, 2016, and Assessing Banking Regulation During the Obama Era, Journal of Financial Intermediation, 2018. He currently is working on a book entitled Useless History and the Future of Banking.