The Julia La Roche Show

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, and George Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG, join Julia La Roche in-studio on FOMC day, where they break down the Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged, the state of the economy, and the interest rate outlook.Sponsors: Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠ Kalshi: ⁠https://kalshi.com/julia Links: https://www.mufgresearch.com/ George's Twitter/X: https://x.com/bondstrategist QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@UCYPBim2ARV9Yrqci0ljokFA Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/073521165500:00 - Danielle: Fed "willfully blind" to economic reality 02:52 - Record 5.3% of Americans working multiple jobs 05:00 - Real unemployment is 4.5-4.6%, not reported 4.2% 08:07 - Debate: Is the Fed being political? 10:00 - George: "More than one economy" - rates hurting different groups 16:28 - Net worth declined via both stocks and real estate in Q1 21:57 - Interest expense is fastest growing budget item 26:06 - Next Fed Chair prediction: Waller, Warsh, Bessent front-runners 32:12 - Corporate bankruptcies highest since 2010 38:49 - Danielle: US entered recession Q1 2024, back in one now 40:26 - Top 10% of earners drive 49.7% of consumption 43:52 - What keeps them up at night: False sense of security

Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, joins the Julia La Roche Show for episode 266 for his quarterly appearance. In this episode, Rule predicts the US dollar will lose 75% of its purchasing power over the next decade, similar to the 1970s crisis. He explains that $130 trillion in total government liabilities against $141 trillion in private wealth creates unsolvable math that can only be resolved through inflation. Rule calls Trump's presidency a failure, dismissing DOGE as fiction and tariffs as harmful taxes. He believes the US is already in recession based on oil prices and recommends gold (potentially $10,000+), uranium, and copper investments. Drawing parallels to 1968-1980, Rule expects 10-12 years of economic difficulty but says America's culture will survive. His main message: individuals must prepare financially because government support systems are unsustainable.Sponsors: Monetary Metals. ⁠https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠ Kalshi: ⁠https://kalshi.com/juliaSymposium: https://registration.allintheloop.net/register/event/rick-rule-symposium-2025-ccha?via=juliaTimestamps:0:00 Welcome and intro00:41 - Rule Natural Resources Symposium (July 7-11, Boca Raton)04:32 - Trump presidency assessment: DOGE failure, tariffs are taxes07:47 - 10-12 years of reckoning ahead, comparing to 1970s crisis09:34 - Prediction: US dollar will decline 75% over next decade11:46 - $130 trillion total debt vs $141 trillion private net worth18:44 - CPI vs real inflation - why the math doesn't work22:55 - Why DOGE was fiction from the start28:51 - Gold moving on purchasing power fears, could hit $10,000+38:43 - Copper supply shortages despite near-term economic weakness40:47 - "I believe we're in a recession" - oil prices signal soft demand44:31 - Fed rate cuts would signal abandoning dollar defense47:12 - Silver phases: gold leads, then generalist investors drive silver explosive moves50:23 - Uranium as "total no brainer" - billion people need electricity54:13 - Next decade different from benign 1982-2022 period55:00 - Personal responsibility: invest in yourself, society won't help

Professor Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 265 to discuss the economy and his new book "Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System." Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/juliaIn this episode, Hanke warns of an 80% recession probability by year-end, driven by regime uncertainty from Trump's policy changes and money supply contraction since April 2022. He critiques the Federal Reserve's narrow focus on interest rates while ignoring quantitative tightening and argues for putting money supply and commercial banks back at the center of monetary policy. Hanke explains how Fed policies create wealth inequality by inflating asset prices that benefit the rich, advocating for "neutrality" as the goal of monetary policy. He dismisses Trump's "big beautiful bill" as fiscally irresponsible and calls for a constitutional convention to implement a Swiss-style debt brake. The conversation covers his new book's thesis that monetary policy should focus on money supply growth rather than interest rates, with commercial banks producing 80% of the money supply through lending.Links: Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hankeMaking Money Work book: https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/139425726000:00 - Introduction of Professor Steve Hanke 01:28 - Regime uncertainty concept and Trump's policy changes 03:52 - Tariffs as taxes on international transactions 06:20 - 80% recession probability by end of year 08:31 - Money supply contraction since April 2022 10:51 - Bubble indicator and market complacency discussion 12:52 - Family call interruption from Dominican Republic 13:24 - Market in bubble territory explanation 16:11 - Federal Reserve critique and FOMC meeting outlook 18:27 - Quantitative tightening vs interest rate focus 19:04 - Three pillars of the book's thesis 25:46 - Neutrality as monetary policy objective 29:30 - How Fed policy creates wealth inequality 32:15 - Catalyst for writing the book 37:09 - "Big beautiful bill" critique and fiscal concerns 42:34 - Swiss debt brake constitutional solution 46:25 - Key prices to watch: gold, 10-year yields, dollar-euro, stocks

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog and author of "Inflated: Money, Debt and the American Dream," returns to the show with a monthly update on markets and the economy.Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/juliaIn this episode, Whalen argues the Fed's easy money era is over, with no rate cuts coming this year and traditional monetary policy failing to help Main Street. He warns of a "silent subprime crisis" brewing in multifamily real estate and sees stagflation ahead - low growth with persistent inflation eating away at real purchasing power. Whalen advocates for gold as protection against currency debasement and explains why recession odds have dropped to 27% despite structural economic challenges from commercial real estate to student loan repayments as pandemic-era programs wind down.Links:    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:00:10 - Introduction of Chris Whalen 02:11 - Big picture market outlook and elevated interest rates 04:30 - No rate cuts coming this year discussion 05:38 - Trump's "big beautiful bill" and Senate dynamics 06:17 - Fed balance sheet reduction and inflation persistence 08:02 - Silent subprime crisis in multifamily real estate 09:13 - Mixed bag stock market outlook explanation 10:42 - Recession probability13:20 - Real estate opportunities and putting deals together 14:04 - Jay Gould and Jim Fisk arbitrage between gold and paper 16:57 - Fed's 2% inflation policy and its impact on savers 18:20 - Gold as anti-dollar hedge discussion 19:38 - Fall of fiat and return to sound money debate 21:00 - Why dropping rates no longer stimulates Main Street 22:13 - Chris's proposal to freeze government spending 24:11 - Banking system fluff and lack of credit demand 25:46 - Real vs nominal growth and stagflation 27:43 - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion 30:00 - Closing thoughts and where to find Chris's work

Lawrence Lepard, author of "The Big Print," warns that America is witnessing the endgame of a decades-long monetary experiment that has created massive wealth inequality and put the country on an inevitable path toward high inflation. Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Links: X: https://x.com/LawrenceLepardWebsite: https://ema2.com/The Big Print book: https://www.amazon.com/Big-Print-Happened-America-Sound/dp/B0DVTCWYNN0:00 Welcome Lawrence Lepard0:56 Macro framework & shifting from deflation to inflation3:33 Fed's two options: debt collapse or massive money printing7:01 Why Lawrence wrote the book & the dire situation11:14 Confronting Tim Geithner at Harvard Business School13:40 The Fed as a banking cartel setting interest rates16:39 How we got here: incremental monetary decay19:39 The everything bubble in currency25:16 The debt doom loop explained27:32 Bond market warning signals29:47 Defining sound money vs fiat currency33:40 Constitutional money & the fall of fiat37:15 The Fourth Turning & monetary reset coming40:32 Young people getting screwed by the system42:50 Investment allocation to sound money assets44:54 Presidential fixes: competing currencies & eliminating the Fed47:42 Who opposes sound money reform (Cantillionaires)50:37 Bitcoin going to millions & why it's not too late53:44 The positive future with sound money

George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors, argues we're in a regime shift where US exceptionalism is ending. He sees global rotation away from dollar assets as foreign capital heads home. He expects bond yields to rise significantly until markets force politicians' hands, recommending investors get out of paper money and into scarce assets like gold. Noble is bearish on US equities, especially consumer stocks and the Mag-7, favoring foreign markets and gold as protection against fiscal irresponsibility.Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Links: George Noble's Independent Research Conference: https://noble-capevents.com/X: https://x.com/gnoble79Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro to George Noble 1:05 Big picture macro view - regime shift and end of US exceptionalism3:56 Dollar decline and foreign capital rotation 6:29 Which regions benefit from global rotation 9:48 Fiscal mess - default vs. devalue the debt 12:49 How markets will force politicians' hand 15:40 Fed rate cut expectations and recession probability 19:57 Doge criticism - why spending cuts were never realistic 23:33 Party continues until "Mr. Bond shows up" 24:33 Get out of paper money - gold and scarce assets 25:24 Bitcoin discussion and getting "orange pilled" 29:12 Japanese yen looks cheap, avoid US consumer stocks 31:08 Passive investing problems and stock picker's market 33:28 Gold has room to run - contrarian view 38:08 Lessons from closing ETF 42:39 Parting thoughts and upcoming investment conference

Mel Mattison, a fintech executive with 25+ years in financial services, argues the U.S. is entering fiscal dominance where massive deficits will fuel asset bubbles rather than economic collapse. He correctly predicted the S&P's drop to 5,000 in early 2025 and expects it to reach 7,000 by year-end, driven by Trump administration policies that prioritize growth over spending cuts. Mattison believes the 10-year Treasury rate is irrelevant since 85% of government debt is issued in short-term bills tied to Fed funds, allowing borrowing costs to fall even as deficits rise. With 2025 targets of Bitcoin at $150K and gold at $3,500, plus S&P at 12,000 within years, he sees this as the beginning of the biggest asset bubble since the 1990s dot-com era.Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Links:X: https://x.com/MelMattison1The 10 Year Ain't What It Used to Be: https://x.com/MelMattison1/status/1922710289486627300Website: https://www.melmattison.com/Book: https://www.amazon.com/Quoz-Financial-Thriller-Mel-Mattison/dp/B0CV89VLMYTimestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro of Mel Mattison0:58 Background and macro framework3:15 Fiscal dominance and deficit spending reality5:37 Salsa and sour cream market theory9:11 Why markets will hit 7,000 by year end10:52 Calling the market bottom at 5,11512:22 Why rate fears are overblown16:10 Monthly treasury statement insights17:05 Budget surpluses signal collapse, deficits signal bubbles18:06 Riding the asset bubble strategy20:41 Government borrowing costs going down despite rising debt23:27 Policy makers have more rabbits to pull out24:04 USD printing machine philosophy26:57 S&P 12,000 target within few years28:32 Biggest asset bubble of our lifetime30:40 Bitcoin $150K and gold $3,500 predictions35:30 Federal Reserve rate cut forecasts38:52 Unlocking home equity through HELOCs42:06 Massive stimulus through front-end manipulation42:21 Trump's oil and energy strategy46:38 Fed funds as baby boomer stimulus53:13 Parting thoughts and where to follow

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 260 to discuss tariffs, markets, and geopolitics. Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).Links:  Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/DavidwoounboundTimestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro of David Woo 1:09 Macro picture and Trump's market influence 1:45 China tariff capitulation analysis 5:36 Trump as tactical trader 6:26 Understanding Trump's constraints 11:16 Investment strategy for trade war 17:32 How to win a trade war 23:03 Defensive positioning advice 24:30 Ukraine-Russia war failure 32:05 Geopolitical risk ranking 39:07 Do sanctions work? 43:55 Prediction markets on trade deals 48:53 Conservative movement struggles globally 49:28 Trump 2.0 performance critique 52:26 Elon Musk and DOGE disappointment 56:05 Closing thoughts

Tommy Thornton, founder and president of Hedge Fund Telemetry, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the volatile market conditions of 2025 . He examines bond market risks, highlighting concerns about rising treasury yields and potential systemic impacts if rates break key levels. Thornton analyzes tariffs, the Fed, tax cuts, the national debt, and the probability of a recession. Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia Links: https://www.hedgefundtelemetry.com/https://www.x.com/tommythornton Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction and welcome1:44 - Market volatility conditions in 20253:51 - Comparing Trump 1.0 vs 2.0 economic challenges6:16 - Bond market risks and treasury yields8:40 - Tariffs impact on retailers and consumers10:46 - Federal Reserve's stance and labor market focus14:54 - Potential spillover effects from bond to equity markets18:22 - Technical analysis deep dive with charts24:53 - Overbought market conditions indicators27:40 - Wave analysis and market pattern predictions35:26 - Gold market analysis and trading approach43:34 - Recession outlook and economic projections46:31 - Stagflation risks and Fed response49:07 - Tax cut challenges in current deficit environment54:55 - Closing thoughts and investment advice

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show to discuss his newly released book "Inflated: Money, Debt and the American Dream." Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Kalshi: kalshi.com/julia In this episode, Whalen offers a contrarian perspective on current markets, dismissing recession fears while highlighting a "silent recession" in commercial real estate. He draws parallels between Trump and Andrew Jackson, explains why the Treasury-Fed relationship is America's most important economic factor, and predicts zero rate cuts this year despite market expectations. Whalen argues that America's addiction to inflation has benefited asset holders while hurting average citizens, creating a housing affordability crisis and warning of an impending commercial real estate collapse that could become "the new subprime."Links:    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:0:00 - Introduction and welcome back Chris Whalen 0:31 - Discussion about Chris's new book release 2:04 - Current market analysis and tariff situation 2:35 - Trump's fiscal plans and Congressional challenges 3:58 - Credit to Chris for predicting tariffs as "distraction" 4:21 - Chris's investment positions 5:09 - America's addiction to debt 7:35 - Treasury market and Fed priorities analysis 9:02 - Banks' lack of credit demand issue 11:22 - Inflation misconceptions 13:43 - Trump/Jackson parallel 15:33 - Fed/Treasury relationship change post-2008 17:09 - Trump's vision for economic role of government 18:06 - Solutions for national debt 19:37 - Inflation impact across economic classes 21:33 - Housing market issues and starter home costs 24:56 - 2% inflation compounding effects 26:08 - Inflation's role in addressing national debt 28:49 - Recession outlook discussion 30:36 - "Silent recession" in commercial real estate 31:55 - Why rate cuts aren't needed 33:37 - Commercial real estate as "the new subprime" 35:29 - Government as housing lender of last resort problems 37:06 - Closing remarks

Dr. Edward Altman, creator of the Z-Score bankruptcy prediction model and Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, Emeritus at the Stern School of Business, joins Julia La Roche on episode 257 for an in-depth discussion on where we are in the credit cycle. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Ed Altman discusses the current state of the credit cycle. Dr. Altman explains that 2024 saw more Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings than any year since the Great Financial Crisis, with over 7,000 filings. He analyzes why the economy has moved from a "benign" phase to a "stress" phase in his credit cycle framework, highlighting the dichotomy between high-yield bonds and bank loans, the impact of floating-rate debt, and the growth of private credit markets. Dr. Altman also examines distressed exchanges as alternatives to bankruptcy, government debt concerns, and why credit cycles typically precede business cycles as leading economic indicators.Dr. Altman is a renowned professor and researcher for his bankruptcy prediction and credit risk analysis work. Dr. Altman earned his MBA and Ph.D. in Finance from the University of California, Los Angeles. He has been with NYU Stern School of Business since 1967. He is most famous for developing the Z-Score formula in the late 1960s. The Z-Score is a financial model that uses historical data to predict a company's likelihood of bankruptcy. This formula is widely used by investors, financial analysts, and auditors as a tool for predicting corporate defaults and an aid in credit risk management. Dr. Altman has published numerous books and articles on the topics of bankruptcy, corporate distress analysis, corporate financial restructuring, and credit risk. His work has had a significant impact on both academic finance and practical investment analysis. Links: Wiser Funding: https://www.wiserfunding.com/ Corporate Financial Distress, Restructuring and Bankruptcy Book: https://www.amazon.com/Corporate-Financial-Distress-Restructuring-Bankruptcy/dp/1119481805/NYU Stern: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/faculty/bio/edward-altman00:00 - Introduction to Dr. Edward Altman 01:17 - The current credit cycle and economy outlook 03:17 - Credit market dichotomy between high yield bonds and bank loans 05:43 - Floating rate vs fixed rate debt performance 09:16 - Credit cycle as a leading indicator for the business cycle 15:21 - Record high Chapter 11 bankruptcies in 2024 19:06 - Understanding distressed exchanges as a default technique 26:58 - The Z-Score: history and evolution 33:49 - Changes in corporate debt markets over the decades 36:37 - Bond rating equivalents for Z-Scores 38:32 - Comparing current conditions to the 2007 credit bubble 45:19 - Private credit market growth and impact 51:38 - Government debt concerns and interest payments 59:59 - Closing thoughts on the credit cycle and market outlook

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 256 for an FOMC day interview.Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia DiMartino Booth argues that Fed monetary policy remains overly restrictive while the labor market is "anything but solid." She points to concerning indicators including record credit card minimum payments, rising long-term unemployment, and declining full-time jobs. DiMartino Booth makes the case for immediate rate cuts to a floor of 2%, warning the economy now operates "without a safety net" after successive waves of debt-fueled growth. Looking forward, she expresses concern about geopolitical risks while finding hope in the strong work ethic of the younger generation.A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. Links: QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 - Opening commentary on Powell and monetary policy0:23 - Introduction and FOMC day discussion1:39 - Arguments that monetary policy is too restrictive2:49 - Labor market indicators and private sector layoffs4:13 - Credit card minimum payments and student loan impacts6:02 - Signs of financial stress in refinancing behaviors8:10 - Bankruptcy trends and distressed debt exchanges9:57 - Fed's dual mandate debate12:05 - Critique of Powell's selective history on Fed actions13:57 - Job market reality vs. Powell's "solid" characterization15:48 - Self-employment and full-time job losses17:50 - Sponsor segment19:08 - Labor market "scarring" and long-term unemployment21:12 - Federal debt approaching $38 trillion22:03 - Analysis of long-term debt cycles since Greenspan24:16 - Student loan wage garnishment concerns28:36 - Fed rate cut recommendations30:10 - Policy pushing money from real economy to financial assets33:00 - Tariffs discussion - why they're deflationary not inflationary36:38 - Real-world impacts of import costs38:26 - What keeps Danielle up at night - geopolitical concerns39:53 - What gives her hope - younger generation's work ethic42:17 - Information about Qi Research and closing thoughts

Grant Williams, author of “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…” and host of The Grant Williams podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 255 where he discusses what he calls a fundamental "100-year pivot" reshaping the global landscape. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Williams warns that we've entered an "air pocket" where tariff impacts haven't yet fully manifested in corporate earnings but will soon emerge with significant consequences. He emphasizes a crucial mindset shift from "getting rich" to "staying rich," urging investors to prioritize capital preservation over chasing returns. Williams provides thought-provoking insights on gold's rise reflecting central bank diversification away from US treasuries, the questioning of foundational institutions, and why even his natural cynicism wasn't enough to prepare for the current economic climate. Throughout, he stresses that these changes extend far beyond markets, representing a once-in-a-generation transformation that requires deep reflection.Links: https://www.grant-williams.com/ https://twitter.com/ttmygh0:00 - Intro and welcome back Grant Williams0:54 - Big picture macro view question1:35 - Market uncertainty and volatility discussion5:52 - Signs of tariff effects appearing in data7:06 - Return to company fundamentals vs stock pricing7:35 - Question about holding liquidity8:18 - Buffett stepping down significance10:38 - Recent important diplomatic shifts with China and Japan14:53 - Discussion of "100 year pivot" and generational change18:01 - Understanding the new world we're navigating22:03 - Investment vs trading distinction in changing markets25:00 - Shift from "getting rich" to "staying rich" mindset27:19 - Gold discussion34:38 - Future of the US dollar40:14 - Shift to domestic-focused economic policies42:22 - Protecting assets vs making money in the new paradigm48:33 - Risks keeping Grant up at night52:29 - Not being "cynical enough" realization57:26 - Problems beyond markets affecting everyday lives59:56 - Final thoughts

In Episode 254 of The Julia La Roche Show, legendary economist Dr. Lacy Hunt, Chief Economist at Hoisington Investment Management, analyzes what he calls an economic "interregnum" where five convergent forces are aligning to depress growth. Dr. Hunt methodically explains how tariffs will ultimately prove deflationary rather than inflationary, why the Fed's restrictive monetary policy is misplaced, how federal spending cuts are creating headwinds, why massive debt overhang limits policy effectiveness, and how changing demographics will impact long-term prospects. With over 56 years of experience and historical perspective dating back to the 1920s, Dr. Hunt delivers a sobering but authoritative prediction that recession lies ahead in 2025, describing it as "a long, difficult slog" rather than a brief downturn.Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Dr. Hunt is an internationally known and award-winning economist. He received the Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics for "outstanding contributions in the field of business economics."  Dr. Hunt is Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company (HIMCO).This is the 56th year in Dr. Hunt's career. He served as a Senior Economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. When he entered the Fed, William Martin was chair and was grappling with severe inflation and when Dr. Hunt left the Fed, Arthur Burns was chair and also trying to contain rampant price increases.  Dr. Hunt served 23 years on the Board of Trustees at Temple University where he received his PhD in 1969, and is an honorary life trustee as well.Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction and welcome1:16 - "Interregnum" explanation1:28 - Tariffs discussion begins2:08 - Economic boost from tariff announcements2:49 - Consumer buying ahead of tariffs3:42 - Employment impact of demand surge4:26 - Inventory accumulation5:03 - Federal spending decline (FY 2025)6:18 - Economy in frail condition7:05 - Beverage ratio analysis7:45 - Average hourly earnings indicator8:11 - April's wage growth weakness9:30 - Late Easter timing challenges10:31 - Recession prediction10:58 - Five convergent economic factors11:32 - Microeconomics of tariffs12:55 - Price elasticity in international trade14:31 - Historical context (1920s-1930s)15:44 - French devaluation of 192517:43 - Smoot-Hawley tariff impact19:45 - Chart explanation of M2 trend21:03 - Tariffs' impact on money supply22:15 - Monetary policy restrictiveness22:51 - Fed's "data dependency" critique25:31 - Other deposit liabilities explained28:38 - Fed policy recommendations29:37 - Tax cut potency limitations31:16 - Fed's need for longer-term view32:08 - Forward guidance discussion33:22 - Asset reallocation issues35:48 - Net national savings analysis37:39 - Birth rate economic connections39:46 - Immigration discussion42:52 - Recession confirmation43:49 - Historical economists on debt44:37 - Interest expense approaching defense spending46:18 - US debt impacts (125% of GDP)48:30 - Gross vs. net debt explanation49:48 - Fisher equation for bond yields53:00 - Tariffs' deflationary nature55:32 - High-tech sector growth analysis56:38 - Aircraft sector growth unsustainability57:11 - Federal spending outlook1:00:03 - Need for tariff dispute resolution1:01:18 - Closing remarks

Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 253 to discuss the economy and markets.Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Ted discusses the concerning deterioration in economic indicators despite ongoing investor complacency, warning that earnings expectations are too optimistic while market multiples remain elevated. He shares his approach to maintaining significant liquidity (currently 55%) while selectively investing in value opportunities like consumer staples. Ted also explains his gold strategy, with bullion as a permanent currency hedge and miners as tradable assets. The conversation concludes with insights from his new book "Second Generation Wealth," where he emphasizes the importance of letting children experience financial independence and adversity before introducing them to family wealth.With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm's proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley's primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation.Links:Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisorsX: https://x.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsBook: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction and welcome0:32 Big picture macro view - deterioration and complacency 2:05 Explaining market complacency despite bearish sentiment 3:21 Liquidity and portfolio positioning 4:45 Appropriate liquidity levels by age group 7:42 Boomers' over-allocation to stocks 8:47 Value Line Investment Survey as a market indicator 10:52 Scaling into investments during market downturns 11:55 Fully invested vs. current 55% liquid strategy 14:09 Market risks: shrinking corporate margins and multiples 16:05 Market decline without recession possibility 17:05 Recent market movement - another chance for liquidity 18:35 Q1 GDP insights and market end-of-month action 19:48 Preparing for potential market scenarios 21:26 Retail buyers and leverage in current market recovery 22:35 Current investment opportunities - consumer staples and value24:48 Gold strategy - bullion as currency hedge vs. miners as trades27:45 Gold's purchasing power preservation over time 30:10 Treasury strategy - staying under two years to maintain control31:36 US fiscal situation and future outlook 33:58 Second Generation Wealth - inheritance and teaching kids about money 36:17 Helping children develop self-esteem and independence 39:16 The importance of adversity and work ethic for children 41:37 Setting an example - treating everyone equally 44:13 Parting thoughts

Melody Wright joins Julia La Roche on episode 252 to discuss the state of the U.S. housing market.Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Melody debunks the "inventory shortage" myth in housing and reveals startling truths about the current market. She explains how March home sales fell below 2008 levels despite population growth, discusses the hyperfinancialization of real estate through Wall Street and Airbnb investors, and shares insights from driving 10,000 miles across America to observe housing conditions firsthand. Melody also exposes ongoing defaults from the 2008 crisis and offers hope for frustrated millennial homebuyers waiting for affordability to return. Throughout our conversation, she provides a sobering look at what our distorted housing market reveals about the broader economy.Links:YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melodyX: https://x.com/m3_melodySubstack: https://m3melody.substack.com/Timestamps0:00 Introduction and welcome Melody Wright0:23 Setting up the big picture on housing and real estate 1:08 The context of the housing market's current state 3:18 Worst housing market in our lifetimes - March sales lower than 20084:18 Discussion of housing bubble and unaffordability 5:47 Hyperfinancialization of housing 6:15 Wall Street's role in housing after the GFC 7:32 The short-term rental craze and Airbnb saturation 9:03 How to see the real housing inventory numbers 11:06 Debunking the inventory myth and where the market is headed12:58 FHA loan issues and foreclosure programs 15:07 Hope for millennial homebuyers 16:42 Advice for first-time homebuyers 18:08 What the housing market says about the economy 19:00 Commercial real estate situation and empty buildings 20:35 Insights from driving 10,000 miles across America 22:43 Unlearned lessons from the Global Financial Crisis 23:51 Ongoing defaults from the 2008 crisis 25:02 What a healthy housing market would look like 26:26 Closing thoughts

Darius Dale, founder & CEO of 42 Macro, an investment research firm that aims to disrupt the financial services industry by democratizing institutional-grade macro risk management frameworks and processes, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 251 to discuss Trump, tariffs, and the risks facing the markets and the economy.Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: 42 Macro https://42macro.com/ Darius on X/Twitter: https://x.com/dariusdale42 42 Macro on X/Twitter: https://x.com/42macro 42 Macro on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@42Macro0:00 Intro and welcome Darius Dale0:30 Quick update on Wednesday morning with Darius onTrump's Wall Street pivot 11:29 Original interview begins:12:43 Core research themes: Sticky inflation and resilient economy 18:09 Treasury market dynamics and foreign ownership concerns 21:24 American exceptionalism and international investment imbalances27:58 Discussion of technical recession outlook 31:24 Detailed recession forecast and Fed response predictions 33:38 Labor vs capital distribution shifts over generations 37:52 Balance of payments crisis risks and twin deficit implications 43:03 KISS systematic investment strategy explained 50:57 Gold outlook and bond market analysis 54:37 Closing thoughts

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 250 where she reiterates her view that the US is already in recession, explains the "collapse in confidence" spreading through markets, and evaluates the growing tension between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell. Booth reveals concerning trends in consumer credit, employment data, and housing that mainstream statistics aren't capturing.Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. Links: QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction 03:31 - Discussion on US exceptionalism and capital migration out of US dollar assets 06:50 - Exploring the implications of collapsing confidence 08:35 - Trump's Truth Social post about Powell and interest rates 11:59 - Federal Reserve's independence and potential rate cut decisions15:20 - Discussion on whether rate cuts are necessary and timing 16:02 - Explanation of Fed blackout period and limitations on communication 17:59 - Analysis of Trump's strategy regarding Fed commentary 19:17 - Consumer 22:20 - CEO confidence decline, reduced capital expenditures, and potential layoffs 23:47 - Discussion on high unemployment claim rejection rates (44%)25:19 - Effects on gig economy and discretionary spending like rideshare services 27:03 - Confirmation that we are in a recession 31:34 - Housing market assessment and discussion of market conditions34:05 - Housing price outlook and structural issues 36:00 - Closing thoughts

Legendary economist Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 249 to discuss the state of the economy.Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Dr. Shilling explains why he believes we are headed for a recession, if not already in one. He analyzes how Trump's tariff policies are disrupting global trade relationships and creating economic uncertainty while simultaneously forcing countries like China to the negotiating table. Despite these headwinds, Dr. Shilling reveals why he remains bullish on US Treasuries and the dollar as safe havens, shares his optimistic outlook on Indian stocks over Chinese investments, and advises listeners to build "fortress-like balance sheets" to weather the coming economic storm.Timestamps:00:00 - Introduction and welcome back Dr. Shilling01:50 - Historical context: US economic role since World War II03:34 - Impact of globalization on US manufacturing04:14 - Trump's changing approach to international trade06:37 - China's position and recent willingness to negotiate09:03 - Signs of recession and economic vulnerabilities12:33 - Bond market volatility and US Treasury outlook17:18 - Perspective on gold reaching record highs19:11 - Current investment allocations and strategies20:21 - Why India may surpass China in global leadership24:19 - Media coverage of market fluctuations vs long-term outlook26:47 - Dr. Shilling's history of contrarian economic predictions29:56 - Assessment of current economic vulnerabilities32:04 - Consumer debt and "buy now, pay later" trends33:27 - The US debt bomb and dollar's reserve currency status36:52 - Potential outcomes of tariff policies39:43 - Contact information and subscription details40:42 - Closing advice: maintaining a "fortress-like balance sheet"Access Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (https://www.agaryshilling.com/).

New York Times' bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for an in-person episode to discuss the markets and the economy. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, McDonald discusses capital flows moving away from US markets. McDonald explains how European investors are pulling back following tariff policies and growing deficits. He discusses why copper, uranium, and oil services present value opportunities while predicting the possibility of "4000 gold and 4000 S&P." McDonald warns that America faces conditions with weakness in stocks, bonds, and currency simultaneously, creating what he calls a potential "Lehman moment" of uncertainty.Links: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Twitter/X: https://x.com/convertbondBear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/00:00 - Introduction and welcome Larry 02:26 - Institutional investor conversations and European capital flows05:00 - American exceptionalism and crowded US investments08:24 - Understanding Wall Street research and consensus thinking10:27 - The new investing era: Niall Ferguson's insights on multi-polar world11:55 - The coming copper crisis and investment opportunity17:12 - Gold as a stable store of value compared to Bitcoin20:00 - Uranium market opportunities and tourist investors21:44 - S&P earnings projections and market indicators24:18 - Value stock opportunities in a changing market26:10 - NASDAQ vs energy stocks: the massive valuation gap28:42 - Trump's tariff policy and its global investment impact32:21 - Tariffs as both regressive tax and tax on consumption35:00 - Tariff policy creating Lehman-like uncertainty39:14 - The "emerging market" problem facing the US40:00 - Closing thoughts on democratizing financial information

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 247 to discuss tariffs, markets, and the economy. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. ⁠https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠ Chris Whalen explains why the tariff debate is largely a distraction - part of Trump's "shock and awe" strategy to force trading partners to negotiate fairer terms as America attempts to end the Bretton Woods system after 75 years. He sees credit deterioration emerging in auto loans and credit cards while warning about multi-family housing defaults, particularly in smaller urban properties where market indicators show values 50% below their last sale. Despite market fears, Whalen believes the bond market is already cutting rates regardless of Fed action, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.94% due to strong demand for risk-free collateral and Treasury's efforts to reduce auction sizes. He predicts financial consolidation will continue, pointing to the mortgage industry shrinking to just five major lender/servicer groups, while suggesting investors should look for stock opportunities despite current volatility.Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571XStanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/ 0:00 Introduction1:27 Tariffs 3:03 Market reaction assessment5:11 Investment strategy amid volatility7:40 Historical context of tariffs10:37 Main Street vs Wall Street priorities11:17 Impact and distribution of tariff costs13:30 Consumer credit and lending trends15:34 Multi-family housing defaults17:36 Real estate overbuilding concerns18:17 Consumer recession outlook20:46 Job market and recession dynamics22:57 Fed outlook and rate environment24:52 Balance sheet impact discussion26:56 Treasury market outlook29:36 Client questions about market positioning30:57 Closing remarks and contact information

Jim Rickards returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss "MAGAnomics" - the multi-faceted economic strategy of the Trump administration. Rickards explains the three-legged stool of Trump's economic policy: Bessent's 3-3-3 Plan, Navarro's tariff strategy, and Miran's "Mar-a-Lago Accord." He warns of a potential "time bomb" in the financial system if Treasury Bills are swapped for 100-year bonds, discusses why central banks are racing to buy gold, and explains why the current gold rally is "just getting started." Rickards also shares his market outlook, predicting continued market decline and potential recession before long-term economic gains can be realized. This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit monetary-metals.com/julia More about Rickards: Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links: https://www.amazon.com/MoneyGPT-AI-Threat-Global-Economy/dp/0593718631http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://x.com/realjimrickards0:00 - Intro and welcome Jim Rickards 1:04 - Big picture 3:01 - Tariff strategies and market impact4:49 - Auto industry specifics and tariff implications6:50 - Discussion on economic principles and strategies11:05 - Geopolitical impacts of oil pricing13:17 - How tariffs work in practice15:27 - Benefits of tariffs and job creation in the US16:50 - Economic agreements and strategies27:11 - Treasury strategies and fiscal policies30:07 - Federal land resources and economic opportunities31:27 - U.S. financial stability and government strategies33:26 - Dynamics of U.S. Treasury securities35:34 - Importance of Treasury bills in global finance38:32 - Necessity of short-term Treasury bills39:58 - Discussion on U.S. dollar and trade policies42:37 - Globalization and economic policies44:02 - Assessment of current economic moves45:25 - Gold market dynamics and central bank activities48:49 - Geopolitical strategy using economic tools51:13 - Global gold demand and production53:45 - Market psychology and gold pricing 54:15 - Future prospects of gold market 55:10 - Economic forecasts and stock market trends 58:05 - Interest rate policies and economic implications 59:38 - Final thoughts and where to find Jim Rickards' work

Axel Merk, CIO and founder of Merk Investments with over $2 billion in AUM, shares his perspective on the current macro landscape. He explores how Trump's executive policies around trade and tariffs might alter the "plumbing" of the global financial system, potentially disrupting international capital flows that have long benefited the US. Merk discusses gold's performance as a possible warning signal, stagflationary risks in the economy, and why there is "no such thing as a safe asset" in today's investment environment. With 30 years of investment experience, he provides analysis on monetary policy, inflation concerns, and portfolio diversification strategies for navigating these uncertain times.This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/juliaTimestamps0:00 Intro and welcome Axel Merk1:11 The big macro picture - viewing through executive policy3:34 Disruption to global financial flows4:30 Potential consequences of changing financial plumbing6:51 Role of the Federal Reserve in market disruptions8:25 What the market gets right and wrong10:26 Gold as a contrarian indicator11:57 Drivers behind gold's performance14:54 Axel's position on gold investments16:00 Investment advice for different types of investors19:12 The "popcorn" investment strategy20:31 Stagflationary risks remain22:05 Growth potential amid regulatory changes24:53 Managing investment risks in volatile times27:47 Long-term debt and entitlement concerns30:46 Global reflation efforts vs US fiscal contraction31:42 Where to find Axel Merk and final thoughts

Peter Boockvar explains why investors must discard the playbook that has worked for the past few years due to three major shifts: the end of the MAG7 tech trade, potential cuts in government spending, and declining foreign flows into US assets. Boockvar notes that these seven stocks reached 35% of the S&P 500 - exceeding the concentration seen in March 2000 - while becoming a global "reserve currency" with central banks like Norway's Norges Bank and the Swiss National Bank owning billions in shares. He identifies emerging opportunities in international markets, with the German DAX up 17% and Hang Seng up 20% year-to-date, while warning that reduced government spending combined with weakening tech investment creates recession risk. Boockvar believes the Fed has diminished power in a new 3-4% inflation environment, pointing to record copper prices as evidence while noting that US defense manufacturers and technology companies face growing international competition.This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Substack/The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/Twitter/X: https://x.com/pboockvarBleakley Financial Group: https://www.bleakley.com/Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction and welcome Peter Boockvar0:55 Big picture market changes post-COVID3:22 End of AI tech trade dominance5:50 Foreign central bank investment in US stocks7:47 Market pivot to international opportunities10:12 Fed and Treasury coordination on bond yields12:34 Market bounce and valuation concerns14:28 New inflationary environment limiting Fed options16:53 Record copper prices amid inflation volatility18:02 Geopolitical shifts in commodity holdings20:17 Investment opportunities in China tech22:42 Portfolio management in changing market leadership25:12 Foreign flows into US stocks and dollar implications28:21 Recession risk assessment30:33 Closing thoughts on investment approach changes32:57 Final remarks and sign-off

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 242 to discuss the markets and the economy. He explains why America's K-shaped economy - where the top 10% drives 50% of retail sales - has made the status quo unsustainable. He argues Trump's policies reflect the reality that our $36 trillion debt has become a national security issue requiring allies to pay for their defense rather than relying solely on U.S. taxpayers. Bianco maintains his "no landing" economic outlook, viewing tariffs as negotiation leverage rather than permanent policy. For investors, he predicts bonds will deliver 5% returns with lower volatility compared to stocks' 6-7% annually, making fixed income an attractive alternative after years of TINA (There Is No Alternative).This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit monetary-metals.com/juliaLinks: BiancoResearch.com BiancoAdvisors.com x.com/biancoresearch 0:00 Introduction and welcome back Jim Bianco 0:55 Big picture view on K-shaped economy 3:18 Bottom half vs top half income differences 4:38 Top 10% accounting for 50% of retail sales 6:52 Unsustainable fiscal situation and policy shifts 9:12 Mar-a-Lago Accord discussion 14:03 Ukraine situation and security payments 17:44 Fourth Turning analysis and Trump's preparation 21:06 Focus on rebuilding manufacturing jobs 22:28 Bond market analysis and common misconceptions 26:43 Bond yields vs stock market returns 29:28 Stock market valuation and return expectations 31:29 Problems with passive investing 34:42 Market correction reaction and overreaction 38:43 Tesla stock overreaction example 39:59 No landing economic view 42:21 Tariffs as leverage, not permanent policy 43:22 Red Sea shipping disruption analysis 47:08 Houthi drone attacks and economic implications 50:51 Global security costs and European defense spending 54:28 Closing thoughts on economic realignment

Lynette Zang, financial analyst and economist, explains why the US dollar is at the end of its life cycle, with only 3 cents of purchasing power remaining from the original dollar. She details how currency collapses follow predictable patterns, with the current system having effectively died in 2008. Zang calculates gold's fundamental value at over $40,000 per ounce based on global debt divided by available gold, and predicts a hyperinflationary depression as the transition mechanism to a new monetary system. She outlines her eight-part preparation strategy focusing on food, water, energy, security, barterability, wealth preservation, community, and shelter, while advocating for sound money with convertible gold backing to force fiscal responsibility.Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: https://www.youtube.com/@TheLynetteZanghttps://x.com/TheLynetteZang0:00 Introduction of Lynette Zang 1:22 Big picture view on currency life cycles 3:44 Analysis of pattern recognition in markets 5:55 Discussion of dollar's end game scenario 8:43 Four key functions of money and fiat failures 10:02 Explanation of negative interest rates11:32 Inflation impact and purchasing power decline 13:56 Gold vs dollar performance since 1913 15:10 Economic outlook and debt sustainability 17:24 Compounding interest and credit exhaustion 20:09 Gold-backed currency and fiscal responsibility 21:25 Gold price behavior and performance analysis 23:51 Gold valuation methodology 26:34 Gold revaluation and confidence loss 28:29 Personal asset allocation strategy 30:32 CBDCs and currency transition tactics 34:13 Monetary reset discussion37:04 Hyperinflationary depression outlook 40:19 Preparedness strategies and food security 43:49 Detailed home preparedness approach 48:46 Economic outlook beyond recession 51:06 Eight critical preparation categories 52:57 Central bank gold buying motivations 54:42 Gold standard and sound money advocacy 57:39 Perception management and paradigm shifts 1:01:12 Closing thoughts and contact information

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 240 to discuss markets and the state of the economy. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Whalen explains why market euphoria has faded under Trump's "shock and awe" strategy. Banks face a $3 trillion mortgage securities problem yielding under 3% against 3% funding costs. He notes the FDIC has stopped reporting troubled bank asset totals after 35 years, suggesting numerous insolvent institutions need resolution. Despite these issues, Whalen doesn't forecast a recession, seeing continued growth with isolated credit problems. In commercial real estate, he describes a "silent recession" where banks avoid taking properties, while for residential real estate he predicts price softening, then a rate-cut mini-boom before a major 2028 correction. Whalen also calls Fannie & Freddie stocks a "pump and dump" trade, states gold is "the only form of money that's not debt," and dismisses crypto as "nothing."Links:    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571XStanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/  0:00 Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen 1:06 Big picture market overview and Trump policy impact 2:49 Stock market as political proxy and market conditions 4:46 Fed policy outlook and potential rate cuts 6:09 Banking sector challenges and mark-to-market issues 8:07 Silicon Valley Bank anniversary and bank issues 11:10 Economic assessment and credit conditions 13:52 Commercial real estate challenges 16:11 Discussion of tariffs and Trump's structural changes 20:13 Debt, government spending, and economic growth 22:18 Investment approach and AI skepticism 24:36 Gold vs cryptocurrency perspective 25:58 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 27:29 Housing market conditions and affordability 29:50 Closing thoughts and where to find his work

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of the book, “Capital Wars: The Rise Of Global Liquidity,” returns to The Julia La Roche Show where he analyzes global liquidity trends and warns of market risks ahead. Howell explains we're entering an "air pocket" in global liquidity despite the overall upward trend that began in October 2022. He examines the "hidden stimulus" from Yellen and Powell that's now fading, details why the US Treasury's bill-heavy financing strategy exposes government funding to interest rate risk, and discusses a theory about Trump potentially revaluing US gold reserves to generate a $1.25 trillion windfall. For investors facing 2025's "much more uncertain year," Howell advises caution and suggests that real assets—particularly gold—may outperforSponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:  Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercapSubstack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/303039290200:00 Intro and welcome Michael Howell01:25 - Current state of the global liquidity cycle and the emerging "air pocket" 03:50 - The hidden stimulus from Fed and Treasury that's now fading06:16 - How bill-focused Treasury financing is effectively "monetizing the deficit" 11:04 - China's central bank actions and their global economic impact15:54 - Signs of a potential Chinese policy shift toward economic growth18:35 - Parallels between Trump and Nixon's economic approaches 21:37 - Asset allocation recommendations based on market regimes 26:58 - Analysis of where we are in the liquidity cycle and future projections 31:49 - Why China needs to devalue against gold and implications for US policy 37:49 - The growing global debt burden and limited options for resolution43:43 - Why the Fed must expand its balance sheet by mid-2025 48:48 - Tariffs as a negotiating tool rather than an end goal 50:39 - Final advice: investors should consider adding resources/gold to portfolios as protection during uncertain times

Jeff Snider, host of the Eurodollar University podcast, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss the current macroeconomic picture.Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Snider explains why we never actually left the 2020 recession - the apparent recovery was an illusion created by Fed rate cuts, election optimism, and front-loaded economic activity. The U.S. economy remains 5 million jobs short of a real recovery, with consumers feeling left behind as their purchasing power eroded. Snider warns of growing risks in China's banking system and argues that continued government intervention is making economic problems worse. He breaks down why the bond market has been signaling weakness since 2022 while stocks remain detached from fundamentals, and explains how the Eurodollar system connects global markets in ways most analysts miss.Jeff Snider is an expert on the global monetary system, specifically the Eurodollar money system, and all aspects of its misunderstood inner workings and how they impact global markets, commerce, and the economy. His podcast Eurodollar University (⁠https://www.eurodollar.university/⁠) aims to educate the public on the evolution, nature, and nuances of the Eurodollar system and true monetary principles.  Links: X https://x.com/JeffSnider_EDUYouTube https://www.youtube.com/@eurodollaruniversity0:00 Introduction of Jeff Snider 0:54 Big picture macro view and recent market shift 2:14 Analysis of "artificial" economic factors 4:37 Consumer sentiment declining and job market concerns 5:40 Disconnect between economic data and real conditions 7:52 Missing context in economic recovery data 9:30 Housing market distortions and government intervention 11:52 Long-term consequences of pandemic policy 13:13 Discussion of growth scare vs. true recession 15:48 Market behaviors and bond market signals 19:18 Fed policy outlook and rate direction 22:30 Potential economic scenarios ahead 25:33 Challenges for investors in current environment 28:25 Base case economic outlook 31:14 Biggest risk and potential for financial shocks 34:48 Global interconnectedness and reserve currency effects 37:22 Path to positive outcome and economic reset 42:30 Problems with government intervention 45:08 Information about Eurodollar University 47:29 Closing thoughts on economic reality

New York Times' bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 238 to discuss the markets and the economy. New York Times' bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 238 to discuss the markets and the economy. McDonald explains why we're facing an engineered economic slowdown as the new administration tackles persistent inflation and massive debt issues. McDonald reveals how the top 10% now drives 60% of consumption, why hard assets like copper will outperform technology in our new stagflationary environment, and how "financial repression" may be the only viable strategy to manage our $37 trillion debt burden. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/0:00 Introduction and welcome 1:25 Overview of fiscal stimulus and inflationary forces 3:50 Top 10% of consumers responsible for 60% of consumption 7:16 Treasury debt strategy and need to get rates down 9:16 Discussion of engineering recession to kill inflation 13:39 Market signals pointing to recession risk 15:42 Copper as a contrarian investment opportunity 19:50 Effects of job reshoring and war rebuilds on inflation 22:15 Hard assets outperforming in stagflationary environment 25:05 Issues with rapidly cutting government spending 26:38 New portfolio construction for inflationary regime 29:08 Bear Traps Report approach and financial repression strategy

Dr. Judy Shelton, senior fellow at the Independent Institute and author of "Good as Gold: How To Unleash The Power of Sound Money," explains why the U.S. stands at a monetary crossroads requiring fundamental reform. She critiques the Federal Reserve's practice of paying banks billions not to lend, the distortionary effects of currency manipulation in international trade, and the moral implications of a 2% inflation target that systematically erodes savings. Shelton argues for auditing the Fed, restoring accountability, and considering gold-linked bonds as a path toward sound money, which she describes as a foundational element of economic liberty consistent with America's founding principles.Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Book: https://www.independent.org/store/book.asp?id=143X: https://x.com/judyshel0:00 Introduction of Dr. Judy Shelton1:01 Overview of monetary crossroads and need for reform4:23 Discussion of needed monetary reforms and Fed critique6:36 Analysis of Fed's interest rate mechanism8:58 Explanation of Fed payments to financial institutions11:25 International monetary impacts and currency distortions13:34 Sound money as moral contract and possibility16:31 Historical support for gold standard from past presidents19:56 Critique of Fed's 2% inflation target22:09 Question about Fed serving public interest25:03 Central bank accountability issues27:51 Gold-linked bonds proposal30:22 Closing remarks and where to find her work

Bob Elliott, cofounder and CEO of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of 2&20 style alternative investments like hedge funds, venture capital, and private equity, joins Julia La Roche on episode 236.Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/juliaIn this episode, Elliott shares why the economy faces a likely growth disappointment in 2025. He explains how both Fed policy and the new administration's focus on restricting immigration, cutting deficits, and increasing tariffs look less positive than expected. Elliott points to extremely high growth expectations priced into both stocks and bonds, while noting professional investors are showing the lowest conviction levels in nearly a decade amid policy uncertainty.Links: X: https://x.com/BobEUnlimitedYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@BobEUnlimited Website: https://www.unlimitedfunds.com/0:00 Introduction and welcome back 1:02 "Curb Your Enthusiasm" market outlook 2:50 Analysis of Fed policy and fiscal expectations 4:39 Discussion of inflation and tariff impacts 6:19 Growth expectations vs reality 7:36 Key risks for 2025 9:27 Bond yields and stock market valuations 14:12 Consumer sentiment and partisan impacts 16:38 Tech bubble comparisons and market setup 17:19 MAG-7 vs broader market earnings expectations 19:39 Fund manager positioning and low conviction levels 23:09 Retail vs professional investor positioning 25:52 Concerns about market timing and catalysts 28:37 Gold analysis and Eastern demand 31:46 Closing remarks and contact information

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 235 to discuss mounting signs of disinflation and labor market stress in early 2025. She points to falling rents, rising vacancy rates, and a wave of both private and public sector job cuts that could force more Fed rate cuts than markets expect. DiMartino Booth warns about the confluence of student loan delinquencies, credit stress, and potential disruption to passive investment flows as demographic shifts and job losses impact 401(k) contributions.Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/juliaA global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.  Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.Links:  QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and introduction 1:10 Analysis of Fed minutes and debt ceiling impact 2:04 Discussion of Treasury general account and liquidity 3:50 MBS rolloff implications 5:18 Private sector layoffs and bankruptcies 8:20 Labor market conditions and Uber driver earnings 9:31 Initial jobless claims analysis and Fed outlook 11:23 Rent and housing market dynamics 13:36 Disinflationary trends and shelter costs 15:54 Student loan impact on credit scores 16:54 Housing market inventory and spring selling season 19:49 Senior housing opportunities 20:50 White collar recession analysis 23:50 Discussion of Doge savings and flat tax proposal 26:18 Potential stimulus impact on inflation 27:58 Passive investing risks and TSP analysis 32:01 Closing remarks

Bill Fleckenstein, founder and president of Fleckenstein Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 234 to discuss markets in 2025. He explains why he's waiting to see how new government initiatives play out before taking strong market positions, while maintaining significant precious metals exposure. Fleckenstein emphasizes that the passive bid remains "the elephant in the room" in markets, warns about government waste revelations, and explains why gold continues to show unexpected strength.Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/juliaLinks: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/0:00 Introduction and welcome 0:47 Big picture macro view and bond market analysis 7:17 Discussion of Social Security numbers and potential fraud 8:10 Market assessment and passive investing dynamics 9:40 Gold market analysis and central bank buying 15:01 Analysis of gold revaluation proposals 16:40 Debt discussion and DOGE initiatives 21:44 Bond market dynamics and 30-40 year cycles 24:16 Fed policy outlook and potential rate cuts 26:07 Economic impact of government workforce changes 28:26 Silver market outlook 31:00 Passive bid impact on markets 34:03 Dollar outlook and Japanese yen analysis 36:02 Concerns about government agency revelations 39:05 Warning to younger investors about passive investing 41:00 Discussion of market structure vs traditional bubbles 44:42 Closing remarks and contact information

Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche on episode 233 where he delivers a stark warning about the state of financial markets. Pento challenges Fed Chair Powell's recent victory lap on inflation, pointing out that prices have remained above the Fed's 2% target for nearly four years. He outlines his thesis for what he calls a "triumvirate of bubbles" in equities, real estate, and credit markets, explaining why these interconnected asset bubbles could lead to a market correction of at least 50%. Drawing on his 34 years of experience and proprietary 20-point liquidity model, Pento provides detailed evidence for his concerns while sharing insights on portfolio positioning, the impact of Trump 2.0, and potential solutions to America's mounting debt crisis.Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/juliaLinks: https://pentoport.com/ https://twitter.com/michaelpento0:00 Intro and welcome Michael0:43 Powell's congressional testimony & inflation criticism 3:02 Fed's $5T post-COVID liquidity & reverse repo facility 6:43 Warning of market bubbles 7:28 Evidence of equity bubble (Market cap to GDP, price to sales) 10:27 Credit bubble & private credit markets 11:24 Liquidity draining from system 13:08 Trump 2.0 impact on markets 14:37 Analyzing market liquidity (20-point model) 18:21 Future recession & $6T deficit concerns 19:41 Potential silver lining: Market reset 21:10 Fed's rate cut dilemma 23:10 Treasury gold revaluation discussion 25:56 Solutions to US debt crisis 28:44 Current portfolio strategy 31:51 Critique of passive investment industry 35:00 Closing thoughts & contact information

Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 232 to his macro thesis for 2025 and beyond. Dowd explains why he believes the US economy was propped up by unsustainable factors under the Biden administration, and how a recession under Trump would actually be proof of a necessary economic restructuring in favor of the middle class. This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/ US Economy Outlook 2025: https://phinancetechnologies.com/Product_USEconomyOutlook2025.htm Twitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdward Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:34 Analyzing the unprecedented factors propping up the economy under Biden 03:14 Framing a recession as proof Trump is restructuring the economy for the middle class 05:03 How illegal immigration juiced the economy and will now reverse 07:28 Potential clash of fiscal priorities in Trump administration 09:03 Housing market correction expected as Fed-induced liquidity unwinds 11:18 Investors have the inflation story wrong, bond yields headed lower 13:12 Passive investing dominance a risk as markets turn 15:08 Recessions create generational opportunities for wealth transfer 16:11 AI bubble looks like dot-com infrastructure build-out before revenues 18:21 DeepSeek upending AI cost model, long-term bullish but near-term volatility 20:33 Gold's historical relationship with Fed rate cuts and dollar 23:24 Immigration's role in boosting money velocity and skewing economic data 26:55 Getting out of fiscal dominance to boost private investment 29:54 Using dry powder and dollar cost averaging in market downturns 32:40 Why a bond market dislocation would be fast but not necessarily a crash 35:47 Dollar strength not at risk, Treasury demand in recession 38:43 Expecting Fed cuts at or before March meeting, following T-bill market 41:24 Banks' unrealized losses shifting from duration to credit risk, CRE troubles 43:50 Doge's promising early progress on spending cuts, debt reduction 45:31 Housing transaction volumes slumping, a leading indicator 46:04 BoJ's Hobson's choice a key risk to watch, potential currency crisis 49:05 Strong dollar a sign of global dollar liquidity issues 51:23 Optimistic on government spending revelations and a potential "golden age" 53:24 Key takeaways - don't fear recession, creates opportunities, report details

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins Julia La Roche for episode 231 where he shares his perspective on the economic and market implications of President Trump's pivot back to 19th century-style tariffs. Whalen argues that while tariffs are unlikely to significantly slow the US economy, the Fed is "playing chicken" with liquidity levels as it unwinds its balance sheet amid soaring deficits. He warns of structural issues in the mortgage market stemming from pandemic-era policies, and expects a major housing reset in 2027-28. Whalen also discusses the Treasury's funding challenges, the Trump administration's likely tax policy priorities, risks lurking beneath buoyant markets, and the limits of mixed economic data for asset allocators. Tune in for an incisive discussion on navigating an increasingly uncertain investing landscape. Links:     Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/    Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/   Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:06 Trump taking us back to the 19th century with tariffs 03:14 Tariffs unlikely to slow down the US economy much 04:57 Fed erring on side of liquidity due to federal deficit, hasn't reduced reserves 06:27 Fed playing "chicken" with liquidity levels in the economy 08:03 Politics making Fed governors protective and reluctant to cut rates 09:45 Treasury's ebb and flow of cash and Fed's balance sheet runoff impacting liquidity 12:36 Fed's difficulty in determining minimum liquidity levels 13:43 Treasury Secretary Bessent inheriting Yellen's reliance on short-term T-bills 15:42 Appetite for longer-dated Treasuries depends on the coupon 17:49 Structural impediments in the mortgage market from QE during COVID 18:19 Taxes to be a big focus for Trump administration 19:51 Danger of relying on long-dated Treasury issuance to finance deficits 21:11 Strong liquidity masking underlying economic issues 22:44 Inflation likely here to stay given high debt levels 24:14 Expecting Fed rate cuts, mini boom, then major housing reset in 2027-28 25:55 Treasury Secretary Bessent named acting head of CFPB after firing Chopra 27:13 Stock market valuations stretched, risks from passive strategies selling 29:54 Trump likened to a disruptive Andrew Jackson, investors may seek safety 31:48 Mixed economic data making asset allocation challenging

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 230 for an in-person Fed day analysis following the January FOMC meeting. She breaks down Powell's press conference, newly released 2019 Fed transcripts, and signals of labor market weakness that official numbers might miss. DiMartino Booth explains why the Fed's shift to market-based inflation metrics could accelerate rate cuts, while warning about mounting evidence of job market deterioration hidden beneath headline numbers. A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.  Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. Links:   QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Timestamps: 0:00 Opening discussion on disinflationary pressures 1:09 Analysis of 2019 Fed transcripts and global trade impact 3:13 Discussion of Conference Board data and labor market signals 8:56 Analysis of rental market dynamics and Fed's new inflation metrics 17:36 Housing market analysis and renter dynamics 18:28 Impact of tariffs on economy and growth 21:54 Release timing of Fed transcripts and messaging 23:16 Current state of economy and job market analysis 28:54 Federal employee buyouts and workforce implications 34:11 Evolution of layoff reporting and gig economy impact 38:54 Discussion of fiscal policy mechanisms and inflation 41:30 Analysis of potential government efficiency measures 47:00 AI impact on markets and tech valuations 50:57 Societal shifts in spending habits and debt management 54:22 Closing remarks and where to find her work

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo, CEO of David Woo Unbound, joins Julia La Roche on episode 228 in a two-part interview. On Monday, he rejoined to provide analysis on China's DeepSeek AI breakthrough and the massive macro implications. On Friday, he provided a deep dive into Trump's second term strategy and the global chess moves, from US-China negotiations to the crucial role of Mexico in border security. In Part 1, Woo discusses how DeepSeek's AI model from China has impacted markets, with the NASDAQ down 3% and Nvidia dropping over 16%. He examines how this development challenges US tech monopolies' dominance and what this means for US economic exceptionalism and tech sector valuations. In Part 2, Woo analyzes the challenges facing Trump's second term, particularly regarding fiscal policy and the extension of the 2017 tax cuts. He highlights the critical role of the Freedom Caucus, which holds significant power with Republicans' one-seat majority in the House. The discussion covers several key areas: The potential alliance between the Freedom Caucus and Elon Musk on fiscal policy Mexico's proactive approach to border security and trade relations Contrasting positions of Mexico and Canada on trade negotiations The complexities of the TikTok situation and potential solutions US-China relations and the possibility of returning to the Phase One trade agreement Investment opportunities in Chinese equities, the Mexican peso, and 5-year US Treasuries Links: Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound Part 1: DeepSeek Discussion 0:00 Intro with David Woo 1:02 DeepSeek's impact on markets and US tech dominance 3:13 Analysis of US market capitalization growth 5:47 Discussion of US tech monopolies and cloud computing 7:14 DeepSeek's challenge to US AI dominance 9:09 Market reaction to DeepSeek's test results 11:15 Impact on technology monetization 12:17 Conclusion Part 2 12:30 Introduction 13:21 Trump administration challenges 21:21 Freedom Caucus and fiscal policy 34:25 Trump's foreign policy approach 36:49 TikTok situation analysis 41:44 US-China trade relations 43:40 Trump's 2017 China visit story 46:03 Chinese market investment outlook 49:10 Mexico vs Canada analysis 56:10 US Treasury market outlook 59:13 Closing thoughts

Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 227 to shares his outlook for the US economy and financial markets in 2025. Applying his famed "quantity theory of money," Professor Hanke warns that the economy is set to slow this year due to the lagged effects of past monetary and fiscal policies. He cautions that it's "going to be a year of investing dangerously," with his proprietary bubble detector signaling that markets are extremely overvalued and complacent, reaching the highest levels ever. Hanke also discusses the risks posed by runaway government debt, advocates for right-sizing government's role in the economy, and shares his latest books and research. Links: Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hanke Capital, Interest, and Waiting: Controversies, Puzzles, and New Additions to Capital Theory https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-63398-0 Making Money Work: How to Rewrite the Rules of Our Financial System: https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260 https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/making-money-work-matt-sekerke/1146170520 Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:11 Macro outlook using quantity theory of money 03:38 Impact of Fed policy on asset prices, inequality, and inflation 07:06 How Fed-driven inequality influenced 2024 election outcome 10:43 China's economic troubles and deflationary risks 13:28 Europe's economic stagnation and fiscal woes 15:38 Likelihood of a recession in 2025 under the new administration 17:36 Parallels to the Reagan era and smart economic policies 20:32 Concerns about Trump's mercantilist trade policies and border control plans 23:43 Hanke's bubble detector signaling overvalued, complacent markets 26:46 Runaway US national debt - the lying price problem and moral hazard 30:06 Restoring confidence and implementing a constitutional debt brake 32:00 Right-sizing government to boost economic growth 33:53 Simplifying taxes with a flat tax 35:48 Hanke's latest books and how to follow his work

Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 226 to share his perspective on the biggest challenges facing investors in 2025. Oakley discusses the potential collision between high government debt levels and rising interest rates. He expresses concerns about the new administration's economic plans sparking inflation, and the difficulties in refinancing government debt given budget shortfalls. Oakley also shares his market outlook, highlighting risks around investor complacency, the popularity of passive investing, and the importance of maintaining liquidity. He provides insights from his decades of investing experience, including how he navigated previous turbulent markets. Oakley also previews his upcoming book on generational wealth and the lessons learned from his own upbringing. With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm's proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley's primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation. 00:00 Introduction and welcome 01:52 Macro outlook: debt vs interest rates 04:42 Inflation concerns with new administration 06:30 Challenges refinancing government debt 09:17 Markets driven by rumors over fundamentals 11:12 Government's economic impact; recession risks 15:54 Oakley's past performance in turbulent markets 19:11 Risks of passive investing given demographics 22:05 Market complacency and emotional investing 25:23 Finding value in stable dividend stocks 28:04 Views on Bitcoin as speculation 31:47 Fed's interest rate dilemma 34:12 Potential paths out of US debt problem 37:29 Recession risks from spending cuts 39:16 Maintaining high liquidity given risks 42:10 Upcoming book on generational wealth 46:40 Instilling work ethic despite wealth 49:41 Closing thoughts on balance and liquidity

Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, joins the Julia La Roche Show to explain why he remains surprised by economic resilience despite mounting challenges, breaks down why gold could reach $9,000-$10,000 as governments inflate away debt obligations, and shares specific sectors he sees as undervalued including oil & gas, community banks, and wholesale insurance. Rule also provides a sobering analysis of America's $130+ trillion in total obligations, explains why the government will likely choose gradual inflation over outright default, and offers advice for younger generations on navigating what he expects to be a challenging decade ahead. Register for the Rick Rule Symposium 2025. Timestamps: 00:00 Welcome to Rick Rule 01:01 Economic resilience despite challenges 02:52 Winners and losers in current economy 03:16 Warning signs: Fed losing control of long yields 04:33 Value opportunities in out-of-favor stocks 05:26 Gold price outlook and analysis 07:34 Real inflation vs CPI discussion 08:33 Foreign government gold buying 10:59 Price targets and Warren Buffett's wisdom 12:06 1970s inflation comparison 14:01 Impact of high inflation environments 17:13 Entitlement obligations analysis 19:37 Social Security reform discussion 23:00 10-year reckoning outlook 24:59 Department of Government Efficiency critique 28:15 Solutions to government spending 30:23 Monetary reset scenarios 35:04 Investment opportunities discussion 39:07 Canadian political outlook 44:46 Portfolio positioning and cash levels 47:48 Closing thoughts and upcoming events Links: Rick Rule Symposium: https://registration.allintheloop.net/register/event/rick-rule-symposium-2025-ccha?via=julia Rule Investment Media: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.com

Marc Faber, editor and publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, joins the Julia La Roche Show to break down why he believes asset inflation is coming to an end while consumer price inflation accelerates. He explains why 70% of households are struggling despite government statistics showing growth, critiques Federal Reserve policies that favor Wall Street over Main Street, and shares his framework for portfolio allocation across real estate, stocks, bonds, and precious metals. Faber also provides a tour of his rare book and communist memorabilia collection in his office while sharing thoughts on capitalism, society, and his newest motorcycle. Timestamps: 00:00 Welcome to Marc Faber 00:57 Macro overview and government statistics 02:52 Fed policy favoring the wealthy 04:41 Political shifts in Europe and Argentina 06:09 Market outlook and policy implications 08:57 US indices topping out analysis 11:12 Value opportunities in Asian markets 13:37 Gold price history and precious metals 14:35 Bond market size discussion 16:37 Monetary inflation distortions 19:56 Debt spiral and hyperinflation risks 21:21 Insurance and property discussion 23:02 Government role in economy 26:00 Trust and capitalism discussion 28:01 Trump administration outlook 32:00 Real economy recession analysis 34:35 Asset vs consumer price inflation 40:04 Bureau of Labor Statistics critique 42:49 End of asset inflation thesis 44:35 Cost of living increases examples 47:24 Portfolio allocation framework 49:55 Communist memorabilia collection 54:21 Closing thoughts Links: The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: https://www.gloomboomdoom.com

George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG, joins the Julia La Roche Show to discuss why 2025 will be a "balancing act" as markets transition from record highs to new economic realities. In this wide-ranging conversation, Goncalves explains why the Trump administration faces a critical choice between taking "short-term pain for long-term gain" early in the term or continuing fiscal largesse, analyzes why the 10-year yield breaking above 4.75% could trigger market turbulence, and breaks down why the Federal Reserve needs to keep cutting rates to avoid a recession in the second half of the year. Links: https://x.com/bondstrategist Timestamps: 00:00 Welcome to George Goncalves 01:17 Background and macro framework 03:15 2025 as a "balancing act" 05:35 Market complacency and valuations 07:19 Short-term pain for long-term gain 09:43 Business vs. government-led growth 11:01 Different starting points from Trump 1.0 13:38 Economy propped up by fiscal spending 16:21 Interest rates and fiscal policy 17:14 Bond market dynamics explanation 21:43 Credit market implications 23:26 Soft landing analysis 28:01 Market euphoria and transition risks 29:41 Deficit and debt analysis 33:05 Scott Bessent's 3-3-3 plan analysis 34:40 Fed policy outlook for 2025 39:15 Closing thoughts on dollar and oil

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, joins Episode 223 of the Julia La Roche Show for his first outlook of 2025. Whalen explains why he believes long-term interest rates could rise unless Trump makes "real progress" on the federal deficit, warns a "kamikaze release" of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship without legislation would be highly disruptive, and shares why focusing on Treasury policy rather than the Federal Reserve is "all that matters." He also discusses why stocks could be "ready for a downward adjustment" after outperforming in 2023-2024, and offers a surprisingly optimistic longer-term view if Washington can demonstrate "real leadership." Links:     Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/    Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/   Timestamps: 00:00 Welcome back to Chris Whalen 01:12 2024 retrospective and consumer spending 02:42 Housing affordability and discretionary spending 04:49 Inflation outlook and Fed policy 06:31 Fed's focus on market stability over inflation 08:16 Fed rate cuts projection for 2025 10:52 Trump administration 2.0 outlook 11:42 Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac conservatorship discussion 13:21 Recession probability assessment 15:25 GSE release implications 19:45 Best approach to GSE reform 21:47 Federal deficit challenges 23:38 US debt situation and spending freeze 25:49 Treasury debt issuance strategy 27:42 Shifting narrative from Fed to Treasury 28:36 Market outlook for 2025 30:50 Closing thoughts on leadership and demographics

Luke Gromen, founder of FFTT, joins Episode 222 of the Julia La Roche Show to discuss why he believes the Department of Defense, not the Federal Reserve, now drives U.S. economic policy. Gromen warns that if the incoming Trump administration attempts efficiency cuts (DOGE) before devaluing the dollar, "they will fail spectacularly" and "what happened in '08 will look like a tea party." He explains why rebuilding America's hollowed-out defense industrial base requires significant spending that can't be constrained by bond market concerns, shares his portfolio strategy favoring gold, Bitcoin, and T-bills over long-term bonds, and explores how a strategic Bitcoin reserve could help rebalance global trade. This episode was recorded on Dec. 16. Links: website: https://fftt-llc.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/lukegromen 00:01 Introduction and welcome Luke Gromen 00:47 Two key themes for 2025 03:12 DOD driving economic decisions, not Fed/Treasury 04:58 Bond market dynamics and military spending 07:25 Defense industrial base concerns 09:16 Historical parallels to WWII financing 12:07 Currency as release valve 14:01 Impact on equities, Bitcoin, gold 16:04 Foreign vs. domestic bondholders 21:06 U.S. debt situation 24:03 Healthcare and entitlement challenges 31:10 Social Security reform mathematics 35:42 Historical dollar devaluations 41:10 DOGE and order of operations 44:15 Optimism about dollar devaluation 47:04 Portfolio allocation strategy 56:09 Strategic Bitcoin reserve discussion

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of QI Research and former Federal Reserve insider, joins the Julia La Roche Show for an in-person interview to discuss why she sees "frayed nerves" at the Federal Reserve about the incoming Trump administration. In this wide-ranging conversation, DiMartino Booth reveals why 18 months of downward revisions to jobs data is "statistically impossible," explains how bureaucrats could start "releasing the Kraken" with true economic data that gets "pinned on Trump," and warns about the explosion of buy-now-pay-later debt that's not showing up in official credit statistics. She also shares a powerful message about the growing divide between Wall Street and Main Street A global thought leader in monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded QI Research in 2015. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.  Prior to QI Research, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in March 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed-income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. Links:   QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/subscriptions/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Timestamps: 00:00 Welcome Danielle 01:00 Reaction to the FOMC, frayed nerves at the Fed 3:08 Fed spooked by inflation 3:45 Fed went in opposite direction of staff presentations 6:30 10-Year 8:03 A "closer call" 9:12 Does the Fed make policy for the public good? 13:00 Nihilism among younger generations 16:30 The government is buying the economy time, and the Fed is making the wealthier wealthier   18:48 Are we in a recession? 22:00 Declining consumption is not a prerequisite to recession 24:10 Could Trump inherit a recession? 26:30 Jobs numbers 30:00 Story behind the data 31:20 Trump administration 2.0 37:45 Stock market 39:50 What's keeping Danielle up at night 42:11 Parting thoughts

Former hedge fund manager Felix Zulauf, founder and president of Zulauf Consulting, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 220 for his annual outlook interview to discuss why U.S. stocks are in a bubble and what could break it. In this wide-ranging conversation, Zulauf explains why watching the Japanese yen is critical for understanding when global liquidity might dry up, warns that AI stocks could fall 50-70% when the bubble bursts, and shares his view that 2025 will be a "mini version" of the decade's roller coaster ride for markets. He also discusses why Trump's proposed tariffs could create significant economic headwinds, explores why Europe and China face structural challenges, and outlines his targets for Bitcoin ($115,000-$130,000) before a potential 80% correction. https://www.felixzulauf.com/ 0:00 Welcome back Felix Zulauf 00:50 Macro picture 03:47 China's structural challenges 06:14 Germany and Europe's structural malaise 09:36 US labor market dynamics 12:46 Impact of government spending cuts and tariffs 16:30 US stock market bubble discussion 21:14 Global liquidity and Japanese yen dynamics 25:14 Market bubble indicators and timing 28:39 Decennial pattern analysis 32:36 Discussion of inflation dynamics 36:36 Bond market paradigm shift 41:20 Commodity sector leadership outlook 45:21 Trade war risks and historical parallels 48:56 Gold and Bitcoin outlook 51:20 Financial system stability concerns https://www.felixzulauf.com/

Professor Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University and the inventor of the most famous recession indicator — the inverted yield curve — returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 219 to discuss the state of the economy, the yield curve, and what's ahead for U.S. growth. Links:   DeFI and the Future of Finance: https://www.amazon.com/DeFi-Future-Finance-Campbell-Harvey/dp/1119836018 https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/faculty/campbell-harvey https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ https://twitter.com/camharvey Timestamps: 00:02 Introduction to Professor Campbell Harvey 00:51 BlackRock's "end of boom-bust cycle" thesis 04:15 Historical perspective on market cycles 06:14 Impact of wealthy consumers on economy 07:13 Role of technological innovation 11:37 U.S. leadership in innovation 14:31 Growth prospects and productivity potential 16:09 Post-election growth outlook 24:56 U.S. debt and deficit challenges 28:16 Social Security sustainability issues 32:51 Inverted yield curve indicator discussion 40:11 Impact of technological innovations 45:21 Federal Reserve policy critique 50:20 Distortions from Fed's zero-rate policy 54:18 Future consequences of Fed decisions 59:40 Closing thoughts on U.S. prospects

James Lavish, reformed hedge-fund manager and co-managing partner of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and author of The Informationist newsletter, joined Episode 218 of the Julia La Roche Show as Bitcoin crossed the historic $100,000 milestone. Lavish provides a comprehensive analysis of the current macro environment, explores why "all roads lead to inflation," breaks down MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, and shares his outlook on institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. He also discusses the widening wealth gap in America and examines the challenges facing the Department of Government Efficiency's ambitious spending cut goals. Links: Twitter/X: https://x.com/jameslavish The Informationist: https://jameslavish.substack.com/ The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/ Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and welcome James Lavish 00:45 Post-election market overview 02:34 Fed policy and bond market reaction 04:56 Labor market and unemployment analysis 06:40 Discussion of economic soft spots 09:27 Wealth inequality and Cantillon effect 12:16 Federal Reserve's policy options 15:05 Understanding unemployment metrics 18:41 Debt and deficit discussion 24:19 Department of Government Efficiency analysis 29:34 Bitcoin breaking $100K milestone 33:24 Bitcoin ETF impact and institutional adoption 38:36 Bitcoin catalysts and outlook 44:18 MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy explained 51:13 Corporate Bitcoin adoption outlook 55:18 Closing thoughts and investment approach

Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, joins Julia La Roche on Episode 217 to discuss his new book "The Little Book of Bitcoin." He shares his journey from his 11-day tenure as White House Communications Director to SkyBridge Capital's bold entry into cryptocurrency that nearly led to the firm's collapse. Scaramucci offers insights on failure, risk-taking, and explains why he believes Bitcoin's value will increase tenfold from today's price. Links: https://x.com/scaramucci https://www.amazon.com/Little-Book-Bitcoin-Already-Figured/dp/1394286643 0:00 Welcome Anthony Scaramucci 01:50 Scaramucci on Trump 04:00 Politics 05:00 Impact on relationship 06:23 Take risks and fail 08:37 How bad did it get economically? 10:29 Doing nothing is sometimes the best thing to do, but it's very hard on Wall Street 12:20 Island of Elba observation 14:15 Getting fired from the White House 17:55 Macro picture 25:00 Skybridge taking a massive risk in 2020, going in on Bitcoin 32:00 Raising money again, buying Bitcoin still 33:57 Said Bitcoin was going to $100K at the end of 2022 36:13 Trump and Bitcoin 39:17 Michael Saylor 43:16 Bitcoin existing as part of Wall Street 50:00 If I'm right, it's going to be worth 10x where it is today, $150K-$300K next 3-5 years 53:11 Why Gary Gensler helped the crypto industry 55:30 Parting thoughts