The Julia La Roche Show

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, returns to discuss the stark disconnect between Wall Street momentum and the collapsing consumer, revealing credit card and auto loan delinquencies are now at Great Financial Crisis levels while the economy has shifted from K-shaped to "i-shaped" with only a tiny dot at the top. He explains his letter "The Gambler" addresses how younger investors have abandoned real investing for a betting culture of sports gambling, one-day options, and Bitcoin, while most advisors no longer know when to "hold 'em or fold 'em." Ted maintains 50% cash in short-term treasuries, predicts inflation will hit 4.25% in May rising to 4.75% by fall with financial repression as the only way out of the debt trap, and reveals energy is his largest position up 35% year-to-date despite being only 3% of the S&P (it was 33% in 1980). He expects energy to rip like gold and silver did last year since nobody owns it yet, outlines his "well to the end" strategy covering producers to pipelines to rigs, confirms we're in early innings of a commodity super cycle, and warns speculation will continue pushing until a recession breaks the momentum. Ted draws parallels to 1999 when shorts got killed for nine more months, sees no recession on the horizon yet to break the fever, and cautions that baby boomers age 65+ hold more stock than ever in history making them the worst positioned he's ever seen for the eventual wealth transfer.Links:Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisorsX: https://x.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsBook: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Ted Oakley returns, founder of Oxbow Advisors0:56 Two different things - Wall Street vs. the economy1:42 Consumer keeps falling apart - Credit card delinquencies at GFC levels2:24 K-shaped economy becoming more like an "i-shaped" economy3:32 "The Gambler" letter - Younger investors just betting, not investing4:02 Betting culture - Sports betting, one-day options, Bitcoin5:21 Know when to hold them, know when to fold them5:39 Cash position at 50% in short-term treasuries6:41 Long bond move - Topped 5.19% on 30-year6:57 Late 70s/early 80s parallel - Inflation went from 5% to 18%7:49 Are bond vigilantes coming back?7:54 Bond market eventually rules everything8:21 Expectation of more inflation ahead8:27 May CPI could come in at 4.25% or higher, 4.5-4.75% by fall9:30 Financial repression is the only way out10:36 Can't see how Fed cuts rates at all11:09 Asset holders benefited from inflation but that changes in linear inflation12:18 Energy is largest position - Up 35% vs. S&P's 20%13:11 Big tech stocks barely up from November/December levels13:41 Semiconductors probably at high for next 5 years14:34 Energy dramatically underweight in portfolios - Only 3% of S&P15:03 1980: Energy was 33% of S&P15:54 Energy names - Well to the end strategy16:53 Producers, midstream, rigs - The whole package17:34 Where we are in commodity cycle - Early innings18:38 Commodity positions - Rio Tinto, Vale, uranium, antimony, critical minerals19:18 Oil price and energy thesis20:16 AutoZone warning on motor oil shortages coming20:54 Precious metals positioning today21:54 Gold could go to $4,000 or $3,800 - Shake out momentum players23:12 1999 parallel - Momentum could continue 9 more months24:19 No recession on horizon - Need that to break momentum25:14 Speculative nature pushes until recession breaks it25:51 Second Generation Wealth - Massive wealth transfer concerns26:31 Baby boomers 65+ have most stock in assets ever in history27:22 Closing thoughts

George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors, returns to review his February predictions on bonds, energy, and the AI trade, warning that the margin of safety is particularly small right now as there's no room for error with stocks highly valued, companies over-earning, and policymakers unable to ease on either fiscal or monetary fronts. He explains bond vigilantes are awakening as yields hit 30-year highs in Japan and 20-year highs in Europe, predicts the Fed cutting rates against surging inflation will backfire spectacularly, and reveals forward oil contracts are finally rising as the market believes this situation won't pass quickly. Noble declares we're in the "golden age for stock picking" after active managers got killed by ETFs for years, warns the consumer is already in recession with stocks like Home Depot, Lowe's, McDonald's, and Lululemon making multi-year relative lows, and explains his long resources/short consumer-tech spread has generated 10% returns in six weeks. He argues many stocks are in a bubble not because of high PEs but because of unsustainable margins (using shipping stocks as an analogy), reveals consumer ETFs are actually 40% Mag 7, confirms his "death of financialization" thesis as bond markets discipline politicians, and explains why Kevin Warsh is stuck between a rock and hard place with limited policy tools as the buy-the-dip mentality dies.Links: George Noble's Best Income Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/X: https://x.com/gnoble79Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenobleTimestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Big picture macro update since February0:40 Reviewing previous predictions - Energy, bonds, AI trade3:32 Margin of safety particularly small right now5:30 Forward curve moving up - Market believing oil situation won't pass quickly6:02 Rising oil prices and bond yields - Not positive for risk assets8:40 Tech leadership unsustainable - Tremendous blow off top11:00 Buying semis on 8x book historically not a good idea12:26 Equal weight S&P underperforming - Broader market not doing well14:21 Long resources, short consumer and tech - 10% return spread17:03 Bond market move confirming death of financialization thesis19:52 Fed cutting rates against surging inflation and exploding deficits will backfire21:15 Bond market vigilantes being awakened23:38 Japan as canary in coal mine on debt problem25:33 Gold miners outstanding right now - Out of favor27:04 Regime shift happening - 60-40 model is dead29:36 Fed is not in control - They follow the market32:16 This is the golden age for stock picking34:21 AI trade - Biggest misallocation of capital in history of the world36:44 Many stocks in a bubble - Margins are the problem, not PEs38:37 Shipping stocks example - Bubble in earnings, not valuation40:20 Consumer is in recession42:06 Inflation permeating - Gold to energy to food43:28 Rates won't matter until they matter - Temperature analogy45:51 Kevin Warsh stuck between rock and hard place46:38 Margin of safety explained - Seth Klarman's wisdom50:11 Death of buy the dip mentality51:27 ETFs are not the answer - Do you know what's in your ETF?52:53 Golden age of stock picking - Active managers killing it now54:41 Shorting is a bad business - Just avoid garbage stocks56:50 Best Income Ideas Conference - May 20th59:05 Closing thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed chair and explains why this represents a dramatic shift from the progressive, statist Fed created by Mariner Eccles in the 1930s to a supply-side approach. Whalen reveals that Fed chairs have enormous unilateral power and predicts Warsh will reduce the balance sheet and reserves while trading off lower short-term rates, ending the regime where "every time the market hiccupped, the Fed ran in and dumped more reserves." He warns the 30-year bond topping 5% is just the beginning, with the long end potentially hitting 6% as Iran war impacts drive inflation to double digits by year end, possibly requiring rationing of key petroleum byproducts before the midterms. Whalen explains why silver is surging (Chinese tech demand, solid-state batteries, reduced mining) while discussing non-bank mortgage drama with United Wholesale Mortgage potentially becoming "the next Countrywide." He argues stocks will continue rising as inflation hedges, dismisses apocalyptic debt scenarios since the world needs dollars for trade, and predicts we'll need to get used to mortgages in the 6-7% range instead of 4-5% under higher-for-longer.Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira845Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Introduction - Silver soars, Warsh confirmed, 30-year bond tops 5%0:32 Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair - What changes now?6:14 Market7:29 Banks bought back more stock than they made money9:00 30-year bond hits 5% for first time since 20089:56 Planning rationing strategies for key materials from petroleum11:04 Could get to double-digit inflation by end of year12:28 Long end of curve could get closer to 6% than 5%12:56 Trump meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing - How big of a deal?14:25 Dow hitting 50,000 - Blow off top or still runway?19:02 Silver surging - What's going on?21:03 The next Countrywide?24:29 End game with higher for longer under Warsh27:09 Viewer mail - National debt and market impact29:19 Will Warsh treat Iran war inflation as self-correcting?30:33 What Chris is watching next week/closing thoughts

Melody Wright, author of M3 Melody Substack, returns to the show for an in-person episode to discuss the frozen spring selling season and reveals disturbing signs of distress bubbling beneath the surface, including mortgage delinquencies rising at the exact time of year they should be falling. She exposes the "rage delisting" phenomenon where stubborn sellers refuse price cuts despite a massive inventory buildup, explains why the housing shortage narrative is a myth perpetuated by builders seeking a bailout, and warns that prime mortgages are now showing weakness for the first time. Melody argues that a 35-50% price correction is needed for median household income to afford median home prices, with the first wave of 10-12% likely over the next couple years. She reveals a massive shadow inventory wave from boomers that could add 20% more homes each year for the next decade, discusses how investors are fire selling (one investor dumping 300 rentals in a single market), and predicts the back half of 2026 could be "really ugly" as forbearance programs expire. Her advice: sellers should cut prices quickly to avoid cutting further, while buyers should stay patient because "the supply is coming."Links:YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melodyX: https://x.com/m3_melodySubstack: https://m3melody.substack.com/Timestamps0:00 Introduction - Melody Wright returns, spring selling season1:59 Housing market assessment - "Take three of another year frozen"5:28 Distress bubbling under the surface8:15 Why the shortage narrative is so pervasive11:46 Tracking 86 markets now 15:05 Most worrisome areas - The delusional northeast16:11 Boomer stubbornness and shadow inventory wave16:38 How big is the shadow inventory? 20% increase for next 10 years18:22 How far do prices need to correct? 35% to 50%20:42 Warning signals24:25 Most important thing overlooked27:36 Base case - 35% to 50% correction over significant time28:46 Spring season warning 29:54 Back half of year could be really ugly30:17 Shortage of affordable homes because they're mispriced30:58 Advice for sellers - Get real appraisal, cut quickly32:36 Advice for buyers - Stay stubborn, wait for math to work33:04 How does this feel different from 2008?36:45 Who's buying now if institutionals are fire selling?37:57 Parting words - Patience for buyers, supply is coming 

Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 368 to warn that the three asset bubbles in stocks, credit, and real estate continue growing to unprecedented levels, with total market cap now at 230% of GDP versus a 90% average. He reveals that Powell has quietly printed $170 billion since December in an undeclared QE program, calls Powell's tenure "horrific," and celebrates his departure. Pento explains he's "nervously long" the market using his five-sector inflation-deflation model, currently positioned for stagflation with commodities, precious metals, and energy. He warns that credit markets will fracture first, with private credit now at $2 trillion (bigger than the $1.3 trillion subprime market in 2008), and predicts June redemptions could trigger a death spiral. Pento believes we need a 50% market correction to return to normalcy, warns we could see 15% interest rates like the 1980s but with a far worse debt backdrop, and argues the bottom 80% of Americans are already living in depression-like conditions while crony capitalism enriches the top 20%. He sees two paths forward: voluntary asset price reconciliation or forced hyperinflation leading to currency reset.Links: https://pentoport.com/ https://twitter.com/michaelpento0:00 Introduction - Michael Pento returns after 6 months0:59 Big picture macro view - Bubbles grow bigger2:19 Powell's "horrific tenure" - $4.5 trillion printed3:32 QE program continues - $170 billion since December4:39 Kevin Warsh-led Fed - What changes are coming?5:52 Warsh will punish Wall Street, boost Main Street7:06 Stock bubble metrics - 230% of GDP (average is 90%)8:24 Crony capitalism vs. free market economics9:10 Why capitalism gets a bad name10:01 Home price to income ratio at all-time highs11:01 Disconnect between stock market highs and consumer sentiment lows11:35 Only top 20% doing well - The "i-shaped economy"12:33 AI spending reminds Michael of 1999 tech bubble13:33 Are you confident Kevin Warsh can get us back to normalcy?14:41 What would normal market valuations look like?15:06 Would need 50% correction to return to normal17:05 Wouldn't printing just set us up for more problems?18:57 Either scenario leads to higher rates19:37 Implications of double-digit rates on everything20:38 Are you still nervously long the market?21:19 Michael's not a perma bear - History of market crashes23:02 How dangerous can this bubble be when it bursts?24:03 Michael's 5-sector inflation-deflation model25:14 Precious metals trade - Why only 6% position26:41 Energy thesis - After Iran war27:30 Explaining the 5 sectors - Which is most worrisome?28:25 Stagflation is the base case going forward29:01 Post-recession: $6 trillion deficits, $12 trillion Fed balance sheet29:55 Could we see 15% interest rates like 1980?31:17 What's the end game here?33:21 Are we past the point of no return?34:58 Which bubble bursts first - The epicenter?35:44 Watch credit markets first - Private credit warning36:46 June redemptions could trigger death spiral37:47 Is private credit too big to fail now?38:21 Risk not getting attention - Pressure on middle class40:00 Buy now pay later defaults surging40:29 Bottom 80% living in depression conditions41:18 Preventing tremors creates epic shocks42:48 Has anyone talked about $170 billion of QE since December?43:24 What makes Michael hopeful for the future44:01 Closing thoughts

Warsh's arrival at the Fed actually means in practice — significant personnel changes, new models, and what Chris calls nothing short of an "earthquake at the central bank." Chris explains why there will be no rate cuts for a while, why the Fed balance sheet is growing again despite Warsh wanting to shrink it, and the one-to-one relationship between the balance sheet and public debt that most people aren't talking about. Plus: silver is in physical shortage and can't be delivered in parts of Asia, private credit is getting quiet as the bad headlines pile up, AMD is Chris's AI play of choice, and why the Iran war means "traumatic shortages by June" even if a deal were struck tomorrow. Chris also answers viewer questions on Warsh shrinking the balance sheet, gold under a tightening regime, the PennyMac LIBOR lawsuit, and Annaly Capital earnings. And Julia closes on her first house. Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira842Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Welcome & intro 0:49 Fed balance sheet growing again even though Warsh wants to shrink it 1:08 The one-to-one relationship between the Fed balance sheet and public debt 3:28 Will we continue to see a more inflationary environment? 3:37 Silver on a tear — physical shortage, can't deliver the metal 4:41 Still money pouring into private credit 8:32 Too many dollars chasing too few returns — what this means for markets 11:10 Are we setting up for a longer term risk? 12:13 GameStop CEO's bid for eBay — what does Chris make of it? 14:08 Changing the models, retiring staff — "an earthquake at the central bank" 16:32 "No rate cuts for a while" — Warsh has to establish rapport first 19:25 Iran hostilities dragging on — how much longer is this a major risk?the year 23:02 Adding to gold positions — "the selloff was a gift" 25:36 Mortgage sector — rates up, companies waiting for cuts that aren't coming 26:16 Banks not attractive right now — what would make them more attractive? 27:30 Viewer Q — How could Warsh shrink the Fed balance sheet? 27:56 Scarce reserve regime — T-bills, discount window, can he get it done?29:02 Viewer Q — Is gold a good investment under a tightening regime? 29:52 Viewer Q — PennyMac lawsuit over LIBOR/SOFR transition 31:31 Viewer Q — Annaly Capital earnings — "good earnings, beat expectations" 32:13 What is Chris watching next week? 33:17 GoldCo sponsor — goldco.com/thewrap — 855-573-0817

Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 366 to break down what he calls the most important and overlooked structural shift in financial history — the rise of passive investing. Green argues that the market isn't broken in the way most people think: it's not fraud or irrational exuberance, it's the mechanical consequence of a regulatory change in 2006 that turned 401k contributions into an automatic, valuation-blind buying machine. With passive now at 55% of the market — and rising 4% per year — Green shares new research showing that somewhere between 65% and 80%, a 1987-style crash stops being a possibility and becomes nearly inevitable. He also connects the dots between our retirement system, the housing crisis, and why both boomers and millennials are scared — just for completely different reasons.Links:Follow Mike on X: https://twitter.com/profplum99Read Mike's Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/Visit Simplify: https://www.simplify.us/Timestamps00:00 Intro and welcome Mike Green1:04 - What "broken markets" actually means today 2:40 - The Costanza market and how Mike's research began 6:21 - Passive went from 2% to 55% of the market since 1992 7:05 - Why passive investing is just momentum with no valuation filter 9:45 - The 2006 Pension Protection Act — the legislation nobody talks about 10:13 - Why Vanguard and Bogle aren't the ones to blame 10:19 - The book: The Greatest Story Ever Sold 10:39 - The academic paper that forced Mike to rewrite the book 13:59 - Type A vs Type B savers — and the snow cone moment 14:35 - Prices don't move because of information. They move because of flows. 15:08 - The threshold: 65–80% passive and the market becomes unstable16:07 - Why the coming crash could be worse than 1987 19:37 - The XIV collapse — and what it taught Mike about predicting crashes 22:00 - Is there a disconnect between markets and the economy right now? 22:19 - Nvidia's margins, vendor financing, and the Cisco parallel 24:10 - The S&P could be worth less than 2,000 on a pure DCF basis 25:29 - Pushing back on the "we've never been better off" narrative 27:21 - The valley of death and the precarity line 28:36 - Why demographics are at the center of everything 29:29 - Why boomers are terrified too — and why that matters for younger people 31:14 - The housing trap: boomers won't sell, millennials can't buy 34:21 - What does all this say about the social fabric? 35:18 - "Tax wealth, not work" — the tax code we had in the 1950s 36:41 - Why a wealth tax is actually the wrong solution 38:11 - Wrap up

Veteran natural resource investor Rick Rule, CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, returns to break down a rapidly deteriorating macro picture, warning that oil markets are currently pricing in anticipation of a shortage — not the shortage itself — and that the next seven to ten days could be a watershed moment if the Gulf conflict doesn't de-escalate. He explains why gold may moderate near term despite the chaos (strong dollar, rising yields), but remains convicted it will preserve purchasing power over the next decade as the US dollar loses 75% of its purchasing power. Rick also flags uranium and nuclear power as the clearest long-term beneficiary of the energy crisis, updates his silver miner trade (up ~21%), and sounds the alarm on a potential credit crunch in private and junk bond markets that few are talking about.00:00 — Introduction00:43 — Oil crisis: why prices are "anticipatory" & what happens in 7–10 days06:07 — The truth about gold & fear (it's not what you think)08:03 — Long bonds breach 5% — what that means for you11:31 — How to protect yourself: liquidity, gold & balance sheets15:36 — Gold at $4,800 & the silver miner trade update19:35 — Oil above $100 and what it signals about the global economy22:47 — Why the next 7–10 days are critical27:28 — The biggest unsung winner of this war: uranium & nuclear31:07 — How to actually invest in uranium (names & tickers)32:53 — Near-term bleak, long-term better — Rick's full outlook34:05 — Why is the stock market hitting new highs during a war?37:06 — New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: hawk or not?38:54 — Where we are in the commodity super cycle41:44 — Battle Bank update + Symposium + free portfolio ranking offer

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down what he calls one of the most significant weeks in Fed history — Powell's final press conference as chairman, his decision to stay on as a Fed governor to block Trump from a second appointment, and what it means for Kevin Warsh walking into a hostile committee with the most dissenting votes since 1992. Chris explains why the Fed has been "the key engine of progressive socialism in Washington" since 1935, what a Warsh-led Fed actually looks like in practice, and why the Trump White House missed a political layup by not hanging "the burning tire of home price affordability" around Powell's neck. Plus: why sulfur — not oil — is the one word that sums up the biggest threat to the global economy right now, what China's sulfuric acid export ban means for copper, silver, and inflation, and why distressed real estate is "the next trade."Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira840Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Welcome & intro — what a week it was 2:05 Powell staying as fed governor 5:08 Warsh — "a hawk on inflation but a supply sider" 7:15 Powell's warning about regional Fed presidents8:10 What can we expect from a Warsh-led Fed?11:30 "The burning tire they should have hung around Powell's neck" 12:25 "What would be the message?" — Chris on political messaging and affordability14:44 What change is Chris most looking forward to at the Fed?16:41 Inflation is accelerating17:28 Sulfur — the one word that sums up the global economic threat20:17 What is Chris doing with his precious metals right now?21:17 US equity markets hitting record highs — what does Chris make of it? 24:30 Distressed real estate is "the next trade" 29:40 One year anniversary of Inflated — reflection and what's come to fruition 34:32 What is Chris watching next week?

In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, explains why she's "less fed up" despite disagreeing with Fed policy - praising Jerome Powell's decision to stay on as governor to protect Fed independence, drawing parallels to Marriner Eccles' 1948 stand against President Truman. Danielle calls Powell's move "patriotic" while warning we're "flirting with a liquidity crisis" as non-banks have become "too big to fail." She discusses the challenges Kevin Warsh will face as incoming chair, argues the Fed has failed its employment mandate, and explains how the economy cannot withstand persistently high oil prices and interest rates simultaneously.Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Fed day with Danielle DiMartino Booth0:32 Powell's last time at the podium - Takeaways1:48 The Eccles parallel - Fed independence fight in 19482:39 Why Danielle is "less fed up" today2:57 The Powell move - Staying on as governor4:20 Risk of being perceived as shadow Fed chair?5:39 Triple hawkish dissent 6:16 Unprecedented dissent levels - Early resistance signs?7:57 Powell's legacy and how it changed today9:22 The Eccles legacy - Established as governor, not chair10:27 Powell's move was "patriotic" - Protecting Fed independence11:27 What is your read on Kevin Warsh?12:48 Liquidity crises take precedence - The Mike Tyson test13:40 0% chance of rate cut - Should they have cut?14:47 Fed has failed its employment mandate16:48 Oil prices and disinflationary demand destruction17:17 Bankruptcies accelerating, layoffs increasing18:01 Home prices falling - Thinking about inflation wrong19:16 The valley of death at $100k income level19:32 Higher for longer means more pain20:34 How does building consensus at the Fed work?22:04 Flirting with a liquidity crisis - How big is the risk?22:38 Pummeling the housing market23:26 More sellers than buyers - Biggest disconnect ever24:09 Investment boom or panic stockpiling ahead of tariffs?25:27 Economy can't withstand high oil and high rates28:07 Base case for rest of 2026 - Fed cuts30:43 If you could advise Kevin Warsh, what would you say?32:17 Bloomberg chat - hot takes with institutional investors33:34 What's keeping you up at night and making you hopeful?35:37 Non-banks now too big to fail37:06 Systemic risk from non-banking system37:25 Mother's Day tribute - Legacy and three graduating kids38:03 Closing thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down what's really driving the rally, why the inflationary impact of the Iran war will stay with us through the end of 2026, and why the Fed's hands are essentially tied regardless of who sits in the chair. Chris also digs into Q1 bank earnings — what the numbers are really saying about credit risk, why most banks are still refusing to disclose their private credit exposures, and why he believes the debt in these deals will ultimately be converted to equity — with retail and institutional investors left holding the bag. Plus: commercial real estate as a long-term drag on cities, the New York pied-à-terre tax as political theater, gold and silver ETF picks, and why Chris says the U.S. equity market would be "comfortable with the devil by lunchtime." Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira837Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    "Homework" from Chris :) https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-reserve-barbellUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Intro 0:27 Breaking news — DOJ drops Powell probe, Chris reacts 2:03 Chris's assessment of Powell — "Mediocre" 2:18 "The burning tire of home price affordability" 3:58 "He could be attacking Warsh by Thanksgiving"5:49 Does Warsh come in as a hawk? 9:45 Main episode begins 10:15 Middle East/Iran update 12:56 Stagflation is the base case 15:00 Truflation viewer question 16:50 Spirit Airlines bailout 20:32 Kevin Warsh hearing circus 23:29 VantageScore — "election year press release" 27:15 D. Ricardo's letter on private credit 29:00 NVIDIA — "I would not be a buyer" 30:54 The generational experience gap 31:49 "You think we may get a crisis this year?" 32:45 Share repurchases — "funded with debt" 34:06 Gold homework — Reserve Barbell 37:07 The passive bid 38:00 Viewer Q — community banks 40:11 Viewer Q — Did Chris lock in his mortgage? 42:11 FOMC next week 42:30 "Distressed real estate is the next trade"

Dr. Mark Thornton, Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute and Austrian economist, returns to the show to deliver a sweeping macro warning rooted in Austrian business cycle theory. After 16 years of Fed-fueled boom, he argues we are somewhere in the middle of a cycle that ends in crisis. He unpacks the Cantillon Effect and its direct link to the K-shaped economy, explains why gold is both a canary in the coal mine and a personal financial fire extinguisher, and makes the case that the petrodollar is unraveling in real time — pushing us further down what he calls "the highway to hyperinflation." Despite the dark outlook, Dr. Thornton closes with genuine optimism: Austrian economics is experiencing a rebirth, and the bottom-up solutions it champions are resonating louder than ever.LinksX: https://x.com/DrMarkThorntonFree Hayek book: https://store.mises.org/Hayek-for-the-21st-Century-P11367.aspxMises Institute: https://mises.org/profile/mark-thorntonTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome Dr. Mark Thornton 1:24 – 16 years of boom: What the Fed has really been doing 3:45 – The K-shaped economy and who's actually winning 6:32 – Where are we in the cycle? Signposts that worry him most 8:17 – Private equity, private credit & "sequestered capital" 10:20 – How Dr. Thornton discovered Austrian economics 7:57 – The Cantillon Effect explained: Who gets new money first 20:48 – The Skyscraper Index: Record buildings predict crises 23:25 – Bubbles, billionaires & trillion-dollar fortunes 25:23 – Federal Reserve outlook: Rate cuts off the table? 27:15 – Kevin Warsh, the Fed's "real mandate" & what they won't admit29:40 – Gold, silver & oil: What precious metals are telling us now 31:30 – Gold as a "canary in the coal mine" AND a "fire extinguisher" 37:02 – Are gold and silver going much higher from here? 38:24 – Why record stock markets are actually dangerous 40:45 – The highway to hyperinflation: Has anything changed? 44:46 – The end of the petrodollar and US reserve currency status 47:16 – BRICS, crypto & the unraveling of dollar dominance 49:39 – The Middle East war's hidden impact on food, fertilizer & global supply chains 53:46 – Where to find the Mises Institute & parting thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down what's really driving the rally, why the inflationary impact of the Iran war will stay with us through the end of 2026, and why the Fed's hands are essentially tied regardless of who sits in the chair. Chris also digs into Q1 bank earnings — what the numbers are really saying about credit risk, why most banks are still refusing to disclose their private credit exposures, and why he believes the debt in these deals will ultimately be converted to equity — with retail and institutional investors left holding the bag. Plus: commercial real estate as a long-term drag on cities, the New York pied-à-terre tax as political theater, gold and silver ETF picks, and why Chris says the U.S. equity market would be "comfortable with the devil by lunchtime." Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrapLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira826Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:00:00 - Introduction & kicking off with this week's Wrap 00:52 Markets surging on Iran/Strait of Hormuz news — Chris's initial take02:30 — Why inflation won't go away even if a deal is struck today 04:41 — FOMC outlook — no cuts expected, Fed on hold 05:21 — Trump's threat to fire Powell — why it won't happen and why the approach is backfiring 10:40 — War Powers Act and the 60-day congressional clock — what happens next 11:49 — Q1 Bank Earnings overview — revenue up, credit costs falling, but private credit disclosure disappoints 14:29 — Commercial real estate 16:30 — Housing market 17:24 — New York pied-à-terre tax — politics or policy? 20:16 — CRE as a long-term drag on city tax revenues, not an acute crisis 21:44 — Private credit disclosure — what questions remain after earnings 22:49 — "Private credit will become equity" — Chris explains the mechanics 24:49 — Red Lobster as the perfect example of debt-to-equity conversion 25:08 — Who are the losers? Retail, institutional investors — and some regional banks 25:29 — John Ray III's warning: regional banks are holding the bag on private credit 26:25 — Viewer Q: Trapped Fed — rate cuts, QE, or yield curve control in a stagflation scenario? 28:06 — Viewer Q: Which gold ETFs is Chris buying right now? 29:15 — Viewer Q: Why does the market keep taking Trump's word on Iran? 31:05 — Stocks vs. bonds in inflationary periods — why income assets are the play 32:22 — Is Chris more optimistic than usual? His take on doom and gloom narratives 33:27 — Closing thoughts, where to find Chris, and GoldCo sponsor message

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show, returns seven months after his last appearance to update his Global Liquidity call. The peak he flagged for Q3 2025 has held, and the cycle now points to a trough in 2027. Despite the Iran conflict and market volatility, Michael argues the world economy is actually holding up better than the media suggests — but that's almost the problem, because money flowing into the real economy is draining it from financial markets. He explains why the current rally is phoney, why bond term premia falling is actually a flight to safety signal not a selloff, and why we're in the Speculation phase — where economies feel strongest right before things get difficult. He walks through his full asset allocation traffic light system, the debt liquidity nexus, why the Fed and Treasury may be secretly targeting the MOVE index to protect the basis trade and collateral system, the COVID-era debt maturity wall now coming due, and why raising interest rates in today's world may actually be stimulative — not contractionary — because the government is the biggest borrower and higher rates just transfer more income to the private sector. He closes on Treasury QE replacing Fed QE and what it means for Bitcoin.Links:  Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercapSubstack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/303039290200:00 — Introduction and welcome back Michael01:15 — Where we are in the liquidity cycle — asset allocation clock and the five to six year cycle05:15 — Julia asks about the phoney rally — Michael digs in05:35 — The AI-based World GDP model — Iran far less damaging than tariffs or COVID09:37 — All money anywhere must be somewhere — why a stronger real economy drains financial markets13:18 — The sine wave estimated 25 years ago — peak Q3 2025, trough 202715:37 — Daily granular liquidity data — the downtrend confirmed17:16 — How to stay positioned without getting whipsawed by relief rallies18:49 — What bonds are really saying — breaking down term premia vs policy rates22:42 — The Speculation phase — economies feel strongest right before it gets hard23:45 — The yield curve as liquidity barometer — why steepening consensus was wrong27:15 — The winter analogy — don't go outside in a swimsuit during winter29:40 — The asset allocation traffic lights — what to own at each phase33:51 — Julia asks what gets exposed when the tide goes out34:27 — The debt liquidity nexus — 80% of transactions are refinancing, 77% of lending is collateral based36:53 — The MOVE index — why bond volatility governs the entire collateral multiplier37:49 — Why Michael thinks the Fed and Treasury are quietly targeting the MOVE index40:30 — What happens if they stop capping it — basis trade collapses, collateral doom loop42:18 — The debt maturity wall — COVID debt turned out to end of decade, now coming back48:34 — The Fed is preoccupied with the wrong tool — the world has fundamentally changed51:00 — The Alice in Wonderland problem — raising rates today is actually stimulative53:00 — Kevin Warsh and the balance sheet — why slashing it is impractical right now54:23 — Treasury QE replacing Fed QE — short end issuance, monetization into real economy57:17 — Bitcoin and crypto — Treasury QE stabilization vs the bigger falling liquidity force01:00:02 — Final thoughts — count liquidity, get corroboration, don't rely on one club

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen says the US has no vision of victory in Iran — like Afghanistan and Vietnam, we went in without knowing what winning looks like and are now backing down without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration went from threatening to destroy Iranian civilization to total capitulation in weeks, leaving the Saudis and Israelis furious. Meanwhile Iran is extorting $1 per barrel in yuan or bitcoin to let ships through, China is standing behind the curtain in Pakistan pulling the strings, and even if the ceasefire holds it could take a year before energy and byproduct flows normalize. On housing, Whalen calls the peak — Q1 2026 was probably it — and says the answer to what happens to home prices is "nada to lower," with Houston and Clearwater already seeing serious erosion and the broader market heading for years of sideways action. Rising energy prices mean the Fed is forced to wait on cuts, making 2026 a very different year than 2025. His portfolio is defensive — income assets, Annaly, and gold is his only high-conviction trade. He bought more gold the morning of the recording and says both gold and silver remain asymmetric bull trades given supply constraints and Asia's dominance as the new price setter for precious metals.Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrapLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira832Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 - Introduction & kicking off with this week's Wrap 0:52 - Trump's "total capitulation" on Iran — from threatening to destroy Iranian civilization to ceasefire 2:10 - The winners & losers5:00 - The China-US story — why should Beijing help Trump? 6:20 - The dollar narrative — why Whalen is skeptical of the "end of the dollar" story 7:40 - Gold still outperforming US stocks over the past 12 months8:10 - Whalen bought gold this morning — still his only high conviction trade 10:18 - China's Treasury holdings — trading securities for cash deposits, not dumping dollars 11:20 - Yuan and Bitcoin 14:38 - Inflation and no rate cut at the April FOMC 15:32 - 2026 is going to be a very different year than 2025 16:10 - Whalen's portfolio right now — risk off, income generating, precious metals 16:45 - Liquidated Chevron and Williams 17:48 - Gold and silver as asymmetrical bull trades — monetary vs commercial case 19:31 - The mortgage roundtable in Washington — volumes are going to fall 20:00 - MBA projects 0.6% home price growth — flat to slightly down 23:39 - "Do you think we've seen a peak in home prices?" — "Yes" 24:43 - Misery on the eights — prolonged period of low or no price appreciation 26:18 - Why Whalen changed his view — supply still hasn't caught up 28:00 - Viewer Mail: Oil producer stocks — should you take profits? 29:20 - Viewer Mail: Tokenization of stocks and ETFs 32:05 - What Whalen is watching next week

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, joins Julia to sound the alarm on a U.S. economy she believes is being misread, misreported, and mismanaged. From growing divisions inside the FOMC to deeply troubling labor market signals — including an ISM non-manufacturing employment reading of 45.2 last seen during the Great Recession — Danielle lays out why she believes the Fed is falling dangerously behind. She breaks down the private credit contagion risk, why only 25% of unemployed Americans are collecting benefits, and how student loan repayments, rising gas prices, and tightening lending standards are quietly crushing working families. With a midterm election on the horizon and consumer sentiment crumbling across all income levels, Danielle argues the stakes have never been higher — and that someone needs to start speaking up for everyday Americans.Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome back Danielle DiMartino Booth 01:00 FOMC minutes: Even more division inside the Fed 4:47 – What happens if no Fed chair gets confirmed? 7:19 – Is the Fed ignoring everyday Americans? 8:51 – ISM data parallels to 2001, 2007, and the Great Recession 10:53 – Job insecurity hitting ALL income levels 15:26 – Stagflation or just stagnation? Danielle breaks it down 16:38 – Are we headed for a policy error? Private credit warning 18:18 – The 10-year Treasury, Iran, and the liquidity threat 20:48 – Private credit contagion: What's not getting enough attention 23:16 – Buy Now, Pay Later and gig workers getting crushed 25:42 – Only 25% of unemployed Americans are collecting benefits 27:23 – The Fed knows the data is broken — so why won't they say it? 28:35 – April FOMC: Rate cuts off the table? 29:34 – Danielle on who she's fighting for 30:31 – What investors don't understand about the real cost of living 31:58 – Parting thoughts: Spread kindness

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, returns for his quarterly update. Despite clear deterioration in the labor market — where he argues real unemployment is closer to 5.4% than the reported 4.3% — Henrik is not calling a market top yet. In fact, he sees a 30%+ rally still ahead in the Nasdaq, echoing the 25% surge in mid-2007 and the 45% explosion in 2000, both of which happened right before everything fell apart. He breaks down why the Fed is repeating the exact same mistake as 2007, why PMI numbers are widely misunderstood, and why private credit is the new subprime — only this time the dominoes are lined up in a dark room and nobody knows who's exposed to what. He also shares his current positioning and his outlook for gold and silver.Links: X: https://x.com/HenrikZebergSubstack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4HTimestamps:0:00 - Intro and welcome back Henrik 1:23 - Macro view: economy slower than expected, the jobs reality 3:46 - Why Henrik doesn't trust the jobs numbers 8:44 - Why PMI is one of the most misunderstood indicators 10:21 - What's keeping the market propped up 11:00 - Consumer delinquencies and private credit cracks 13:26 - The final blow-off rally: are we still in it? 16:36 - The 2000 and 2007 parallels: Nasdaq surges right before the crash 8:15 - "We have not seen the top" — 30%+ rally still ahead 20:29 - Is Henrik buying the dip right now? 25:30 - The Titanic 28:46 - The Fed making the same mistake as 2007 34:09 - Private credit: the new subprime 38:27 - Why the next crisis will be harder to backstop than 2008 40:47 - The greatest Fed policy mistake in history 44:16 - What the Fed should have done 46:29 - 2007 flashback: 125 basis points in a single month 48:46 - The Zeberg Business Cycle Model explained 53:59 - Gold and silver: why he expects a major decline from here 56:12 - Henrik's current positioning: fully risk-on 57:27 - Parting thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen says this selloff is worse than Liberation Day because it's real economic dislocation — not just a market surprise — driven by the Iran war's devastating knock-on effects on energy, chemicals and global supply chains. He says the Fed should do nothing, because this inflation is caused by war not monetary policy and central banks can't fix a sulfur shortage. But he warns QE is coming anyway — "the question is not if, but when" — because Congress refuses to deal with the deficit and the Fed will eventually be forced to monetize the debt. He's been cutting market exposure, raising cash, and buying physical metals on the dip. On private credit he sees a slow-motion trainwreck with a Lehman moment still possible, and says Washington is going to make it worse by ignoring it.Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrapLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira826Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 - Intro and welcome Chris 01:00 - The Fed should do nothing — you can't fight war inflation with rate hikes 2:39 - Why this inflation is fundamentally different from 2021 3:03 - Powell got it wrong on QE — and Trump totally mishandled the situation 4:12 - The rationale for doing nothing — the dual mandate is the problem 5:12 - Jobs report — 178,000 jobs added, unemployment at 4.3% 8:02 - M2 is expanding — this economy keeps going regardless of policymakers 9:01 - Are we headed for a recession? 10:06 - The John Dizard interview — diesel is the real key to the global economy 12:54 - Even if the war ends tomorrow — damage will take months or years to fix 20:00 - Whalen has been cutting market exposure and raising cash 20:28 - Is this worse than Liberation Day? "I think it is — much more significant" 21:29 - Why gold and silver sold off — Gulf states raising cash 22:41 - What's behind the dollar rebound23:28 - QE is coming — "not if, but when" 25:09 - Viewer Mail: Second and third order impacts of the oil surge on liquidity 26:47 - Viewer Mail: Can private credit break all at once? 28:16 - Viewer Mail: Should I lock my mortgage rate now? 29:05 - Viewer Mail: Rising long-term rates and Annaly — what am I missing? 30:31 - Viewer Mail: What can Treasury do to help private credit? 32:06 - Is it too late to do anything about private credit? 34:07 - What Whalen is watching next week — credit, Treasury market, mortgage rates

Brent Johnson, founder and CEO of Santiago Capital and creator of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, joins The Julia La Roche Show in-studio for a wide-ranging conversation on why the world most investors grew up in is over. Johnson argues that power now matters more than economics — that the old framework of spreadsheets and cash flows is no longer sufficient when supply chains, national security, and geopolitical competition determine outcomes. He breaks down the US-China power competition, the implications of the Iran conflict for energy, food prices, and portfolios, and why he remains in US equities despite the consensus rotation into emerging markets. He also updates his Dollar Milkshake Theory, makes a provocative case that what comes after the American Republic is the American Empire, and explains why stablecoins may be the most underappreciated geopolitical tool the US has right now.Links: Twitter/X: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFundYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@milkshakespodSubstack: https://research.santiagocapital.com/0:00 Intro & welcome Brent Johnson1:05 Current macro picture: the world has changed & power matters more than economics4:37 Signposts reinforcing the thesis — Trump as symptom, not cause5:42 What the paradigm shift means for investors — the law of one price is gone8:25 The high angst/low drawdown paradox — markets only down 10% but everyone's acting like it's 30%9:43 Conviction vs. confliction — investing for what will happen vs. what you want to happen13:23 Iran: thinking through the probabilities without the certainty16:27 The US is still the most powerful country in the world — what that means for portfolios18:01 Portfolio implications of the Iran scenarios — energy, food prices, the Strait of Hormuz21:23 It's all about US-China — the prisoner exchange and the technology race29:16 Where Brent is putting money right now — capital preservation, cash, gold, US equities31:12 Why he's NOT rotating into emerging markets — the four scenarios framework34:09 The Dollar Milkshake Theory explained — and how it's held up in 2025-2639:29 Stablecoins: what Brent got wrong and why they matter more than he thought46:26 CBDCs vs stablecoins — and the coming conflict between the Fed and the Treasury50:05 The Fed: cut, hike or hold? 52:48 Japan: the yen trap, JGBs, and why it matters for everyone54:46 What question nobody asks Brent but should56:33 What keeps him up at night and what makes him optimistic57:44 The Roman Republic vs the Roman Empire — is America heading toward empire not collapse1:01:40 Parting thoughts: find a community of people you trust who disagree with you

New York Times' bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for an in-person episode discussing the risks in the markets today. McDonald makes the case that private credit is this cycle's subprime — opaque, over-leveraged, and already cracking — and warns that the retail investors who were sold quarterly liquidity on an inherently illiquid asset class are about to find out the hard way. He also breaks down why stagflation is the defining macro theme of 2026, why the 60/40 portfolio is broken, and why the great migration out of financial assets and into hard assets — energy, copper, gold, and commodities — is only in the second or third inning. Plus: a surprising first-ever Bitcoin buy, why natural gas is his top multi-year trade, and the under-the-radar risk nobody is talking about.Links: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMKTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/0:00 Intro: Welcome back Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report & author of "How to Listen When Markets Speak" 1:21 Private credit: is this cycle's subprime already here?7:30 The Trump off ramp: 2025 vs. 2026 and what's different this time9:43 Stagflation: sticky energy prices, slowing growth, and the TACO trade13:14 The Fed's next move — hike or cut? 15:30 The great migration: from financial assets to hard assets16:58 Mag7 double-digit drawdowns and the rotation playing out now19:36 Is there a relationship between energy costs and the private credit crisis?22:41 Gold, silver and precious metals — tourists flushed out, time to buy26:13 First ever Bitcoin buy — the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio and why now30:10 The under-the-radar risk: UK fiscal crisis and bond vigilantes32:30 US fiscal picture: $39 trillion in debt and the dollar's secular decline36:48 Why anyone still owns long-term bonds — and why that's changing39:21 Lehman lessons43:09 Is private credit already a crisis?48:00 Parting thoughts and how to find The Bear Traps Report

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen says stagflation is now the base case — the Iran war has already cost American investors trillions in reduced investment value, Treasury auctions are weak, and mortgage rates are heading toward 7% if the 10-year hits 5%. Despite all of this, he still calls for a Fed cut in April, arguing the inflation is caused by war not monetary policy, and the Fed's real mandate is employment. He says we're heading toward a medium to long-term reset in risk premia, equities are out and debt is in, and that a recession by 2028 — "misery on the eights" — is becoming a near certainty. He's adding to gold and silver on the dip and if Annaly goes down he's buying more.Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrapLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira826Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 - Intro and welcome Chris 0:47 - The Iran war and long-term damage to the global economy 2:18 - Are we headed toward more inflation? 2:41 - The term structure of interest rates is blowing out — here's why4:02 - Making the case for a Fed cut despite $100 oil 4:26 - Stagflation is ahead5:30 - The Fed's real mandate is employment — that's what forces the cut6:40 - Whalen calls for a rate cut in April 7:51 - What difference would a cut actually make? 8:19 - Bonds are behaving like equities 9:08 - The $5.12 trillion cost of the Iran war to American investors 11:11 - Where Whalen is putting his own money right now 13:03 - Why the market has stayed resilient despite all the headlines 13:53 - Private credit - Is Apollo facing a Lehman moment? 18:53 - Weak Treasury auctions — what that means for mortgage rates20:06 - People don't want to understand what the war is doing to the economy 21:03 - This year is the opposite of last year — no easy trades 21:58 - Bob Elliott's world where long rates are closer to 4% than 2% — is that the new normal? 23:11 - If the 10-year hits 5% has the bond market lost trust in the Fed?24:16 - Gold at $4,500 today — volatile but Whalen is staying long 25:26 - Viewer question: crypto-backed mortgages with Fannie and Freddie? 27:20 - Is recession now a near certainty?28:07 - Viewer Mail: What are the downside risks to Annaly? 30:00 - Viewer Mail: Should you invest in Canadian banks? 31:49 - What Whalen is watching next week

Legendary bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, makes his debut on The Julia La Roche Show for a wide-ranging conversation on the most pressing risks facing investors in 2026. Gundlach makes the case that we are living through a fundamental regime shift — one where the next recession brings rising long-term interest rates and a falling dollar, the exact opposite of what most investors expect. He breaks down why the private credit market is shaping up to be the defining financial stress of this cycle, drawing parallels to subprime in 2006 and revealing just how opaque and potentially dangerous the marks in that market really are. He also shares his current asset allocation, explains why American investors should have 100% of their equity exposure outside the US, and lays out two scenarios — dollar debasement or outright debt restructuring — for how America's unsustainable fiscal path eventually resolves. Plus: why he's avoiding general obligation munis in California, Illinois and New York, where gold goes from here, and his non-consensus prediction for the next presidential election.Links: Website: https://doubleline.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DoubleLineCapitalX: https://x.com/truthgundlachEconomist op-ed: https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/12/13/americas-debt-cannot-keep-stacking-up-says-jeffrey-gundlachTimestamps: 0:00 Introduction — Jeffrey Gundlach on the debt burden and why something has to give1:33 Big picture macro: secular shift from falling to rising interest rates16:00 The case for 100% non-US stocks17:30 Gundlach's current asset allocation: 40% non-US stocks, 25% fixed income, 15% commodities, rest in cash22:00 Private credit: why it reminds him of subprime 2006 and why it's “a total unmitigated disaster" 38:00 The Fed follows the 2-year Treasury —  why the next Fed move actually be a hike?42:30 Recession probability: at least 50% in 202647:00 Capital preservation mode: lowest risk positioning in DoubleLine's 17-year history50:00 The gold call: from $2,915 to $4,000 and where it goes from here53:00 The most dangerous force in investing: not fear or greed — need56:00 California, Illinois, New York: avoid all general obligation munis1:00:20 Wealth taxes, billionaire flight, and why it'll cost more to administer than it raises1:01:00 Non-consensus prediction: three parties on the ballot in the next presidential election1:02:00 The Fourth Turning reset — why 2030 is the timeline

Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory, makes the case that the U.S. no longer deserves its premium valuation — and that the biggest investing opportunity in decades is happening everywhere else.Jay's framework, the Tri-Polar World thesis, argues that regional integration across Europe, Asia and the Americas is the dominant force shaping the global economy. Built on 30+ years of global macro experience, his view is that a global growth long cycle — driven by government and private sector spending on AI, defense and renewable energy — remains firmly intact, and that the Iran conflict may actually accelerate it.His most provocative argument: the "EMification of America." The U.S. is increasingly exhibiting the volatile policymaking, concentrated power and institutional erosion typically associated with emerging markets — and yet still trades at a premium valuation. That, he says, is the disconnect that defines the next decade of investing.Where does he see opportunity? Emerging markets — particularly China and Latin America — copper miners, commodities broadly, and the intersection of renewable energy and autonomous defense technology. He has held no long duration developed market sovereign debt for years.Links:Subscribe to Jay's Substack: https://jaypelosky.substack.com/ Learn more about TPW Advisory: https://pelosky.com/Timestamps0:00 — "The US doesn't deserve its premium valuation"  0:26 — Welcome Jay Pelosky 1:00 — Is the global growth long cycle being derailed by Iran? 4:00 — AI, defense & climate as existential government spending drivers 6:30 — Oil price sensitivity today vs. the 1970s — why it's different this time9:10 — The contrarian take: Iran could actually boost global growth 14:20 — TACO Trump & the search for an off-ramp 18:06 — Why Iran is the best advertisement for renewable energy ever 19:55 — Secular shift: the baton of global equity leadership passing to EM 21:05 — Why 2025 was just year one of US underperformance 24:00 — China, ASEAN & the reduced dependence on the US consumer 25:00 — Europe forced to confront reality: the US is no longer an ally 26:18 — The petrodollar at risk; the yuan's rising role 28:41 — US valuation erosion: gradual, not a crash 32:08 — What is the "EMification of America"? 36:32 — The American investor dilemma: wanting America to win vs. global opportunity 38:45 — China within EM: rare earths, digital & physical power shift 41:00 — China's lead in renewables, embodied AI and automation42:36 — China defeating deflation; potential US-China rapprochement 43:05 — Portfolio positioning: overweight equities & commodities 44:00 — Specific ETF ideas: COPX, ILF, SMH and China equities 47:10 — Parting thoughts & where to find Jay

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen says the private credit unwind is now spreading to consumer credit funds and warns that retirees and pension funds will feel the pain most — while the firms that sold these products face devastating reputational damage. On the Fed, he calls Trump's handling of Powell "truly incredible, almost like he wants to screw it up" and warns Powell could remain Fed Chair for three more years if Trump doesn't back down. He says the Fed is late, oil above $100 is not a monetary problem but a political one, and that if Trump puts Marines in the Persian Gulf it could effectively end his presidency. He's buying gold and silver on the dip and watching the K-shaped economy crack wider.Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrapLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Introduction and welcome 0:52 - Consumer credit 3:16 - Big banks now offering ways to short private credit4:53 - How private equity evolved into private credit — and why quality collapsed 7:25 - "Risk Concealed" — SPE loans, PIK structures and hidden bank exposure 9:26 - How do you know if YOU are exposed? You don't. 11:29 - "We're all exposed" — what bank disclosure actually tells you 13:12 - The opacity problem — loan by loan, you can't see it 13:58 - Will everyday investors feel this? Retirees and pension funds will15:25 - The Fed — rates unchanged, Powell is staying 16:11 - Trump "almost like he wants to screw it up" — the Powell/Warsh debacle 19:06 - Powell could be Fed Chair for three more years — here's why 20:47 - Could Trump have gotten the rate cuts he wanted if he'd handled this differently? 21:50 - If Trump puts Marines in the Persian Gulf "that's the end of his presidency" 23:18 - All roads lead to inflation — and it's not monetary 25:19 - Is the Fed late? "Chronically late for the past 10 years" 26:27 - The K-shaped economy — the bottom half is already in recession27:38 - Luxury hotels booming, economy hotels empty — the data tells the story 29:58 - Inflation and affordability will decide the midterms 30:29 - FHFA rolls back climate insurance rules — mostly a press release31:13 - UWMC/TWO — a cash offer emerged, Whalen says Two Harbors goes to auction 33:43 - Viewer Mail: AGNC and mortgage REITs — what to own for income35:41 - Viewer Mail: Why is gold dropping? Whalen is buying the dip 37:15 - What Whalen is watching next week

Peter Schiff, chief economist at Europacific Asset Management, makes the case that the U.S. economy is in far worse shape than the 1970s stagflation era, pointing to a $39 trillion national debt, accelerating inflation, a weakening labor market, and a new war that will drive deficits even higher. He argues the Fed is trapped — raising rates aggressively would trigger a financial collapse worse than 2008, so instead inflation will spiral into double or even triple digits, producing what he calls an "inflationary depression." Schiff sees gold, silver, and foreign stocks as the plays of the decade, warns that crypto investors are "betting on the wrong horse," and predicts a dollar and sovereign debt crisis that could begin overnight in China's time zone. He closes with cautious optimism that the coming crisis could ultimately serve as a catalyst for a return to free-market principles.Linkshttps://x.com/PeterSchiffEuropac.comhttp://SchiffGold.comTimestamps: 0:00 – Intro & inflation going to double digits teaser 0:32 – Guest intro: Peter Schiff, Europacific Asset Management 0:45 – Why today's economy is worse than the 1970s 1:13 – National debt: $39 trillion and exploding 2:03 – Recession risk, war costs & path to $50T debt 2:53 – Why the Fed can't do what Volcker did in 1980 3:37 – Labor market reality vs. Trump's "greatest economy" claims 4:11 – GDP numbers: 2025 vs. 2024 compared 4:46 – Producer price inflation spiking — leading indicator 6:01 – Stagflation or something worse? "Inflationary depression" 6:44 – Why unemployment & inflation are understated vs. the 70s 8:05 – The Fed's impossible position: rock and a hard place 8:56 – What the Fed should do — and why it won't 9:23 – Inflation into double digits, possibly triple digits 10:13 – The short-term pain we need but won't take 12:02 – Why this will be worse than 2008 12:31 – A dollar crisis and sovereign debt crisis instead 13:27 – What the Fed should actually do right now 14:18 – Stocks vs. gold: the Dow in real terms 15:15 – Gold's run to $5,500 and today's selloff explained 16:29 – Why rate cut timing misses the point — real rates matter 17:19 – Housing market: most overpriced ever, 30–40% decline needed 21:44 – Dollar crisis: what is the biggest threat to the dollar? 22:05 – How the war is affecting the dollar short-term 23:10 – Tariffs, Greenland, and losing global credibility 25:27 – Could Trump succeed on foreign policy?27:08 – How has the war changed Schiff's investing strategy? 27:21 – Energy stocks, gold miners & the opportunity right now 28:54 – Gold, silver & mining stocks — where to buy 31:10 – Parallels to the 2008 pre-crisis gold and dollar moves 32:18 – How a dollar crisis unfolds — what to watch for 34:17 – Money rotating out of the US into foreign markets 35:15 – Early innings on the rotation? Is this a new regime? 36:08 – Retail investors in crypto instead of gold — a big mistake 38:25 – Does Schiff have a gold price target? 38:36 – The Fed, the dollar, and gold since 1913 41:47 – 2028 prediction: Democrats win and make it worse 45:04 – Democrats will run against capitalism — and win 46:15 – What is Trump's economic endgame? 52:52 – Biggest risk & reason for hope 58:38 – Wrap-up & closing

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen warns that private credit could become one of the biggest busts in U.S. financial history — not a systemic crisis, but a slow, painful unwind that will take years and leave many investors with no legal rights. He alleges that BDC accounting fraud is already systemic and the SEC isn't paying attention. On the macro, he says the Fed should still cut rates one to two times this year despite oil near $100 because war is not a monetary event — and that raising into an oil shock, as some central banks did before 2008, would be a mistake. He predicts a significant housing price correction by 2028, calls Trump's economic agenda incoherent, and warns that $100 oil by election day could cost Republicans the midterms. His highest conviction position right now: preserving capital.Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrapLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 - Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen 0:31 JPMorgan pulling back from private credit 4:32 - The $4.2 trillion exposure number most investors don't know about7:05 - Where Whalen is personally invested right now 8:02 - Is private credit systemic or not? 8:43 - "Risk is never contained" — what to think when you hear that language 11:42 - Will the Trump administration end in a financial crisis? 13:50 - Rate cuts — will the Fed move despite $100 oil? 16:16 - Base case: one to two cuts, oil at $100 most of the year 17:51 - Housing off the radar in Washington? 19:22 - Midterms — is Trump cooked? 20:30 - Trump's economic endgame  23:05 - Gold and silver — breakout or going sideways? 25:57 - Banks28:12 - Viewer mail35:43 - What Whalen is watching next week

Louis-Vincent Gave, founder and CEO of Gavekal Research, joins Julia to break down the three prices that drive every investment decision — the dollar, the 10-year treasury, and oil — and why right now all three are flashing red. With the Strait of Hormuz under threat, Louis explains why he sees oil heading toward $120 and why that number breaks the global economy. He makes the case that the traditional 60/40 portfolio is dead and should be replaced with 60% equities, 20% precious metals, and 20% energy. He reveals why the Chinese renminbi is the most undervalued asset on the planet, why China already won the trade war, and why the US is in greater danger of crushing its allies than itself. One of the most thought-provoking macro conversations you'll hear this year.Links: https://web.gavekal.com/https://x.com/gave_vincentTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome 01:22 The 3 prices that drive everything: dollar, 10-year, oil 2:38 Oil went from $65 to $85 — but Louis fears $120-150 4:08 Why the oil futures curve isn't pricing in a prolonged crisis 5:06 Dollar bear market — why the rebound won't last 6:28 "If truth is the first casualty of war, bonds are a close second" 6:53 The binary outcome on Iran — both scenarios are bad for bonds 7:51 Regime change = Berlin Wall moment — but real rates explode 9:44 "Tails I lose, heads I don't win" — the bond market trap 11:33 $100 oil and Trump's political predicament 13:41 Trump wanted lower energy — "the road to hell is paved with good intentions" 14:06 Why $100 oil is "right pocket, left pocket" for the US 15:58 The real victims: Europe, Taiwan, Korea, Japan 17:23 90% of Hormuz oil heads east — not to the US 18:39 Missing 15 million barrels: prices skyrocket or demand collapses 20:28 Why energy is the best hedge for your portfolio right now 21:50 The new portfolio: 60% equities, 20% precious metals, 20% energy 22:07 The four quadrants framework explained 25:40 Why the 60/40 portfolio is officially dead 27:52 Gold is NOT an inflation hedge — what it actually is 28:37 Why central banks started buying gold after Russia asset seizure 30:08 Western retail has completely missed the gold bull market 31:32 The broken equation: US treasuries no longer equal commodities 32:59 The next shift — stockpiling physical commodities 33:15 "I'm bearish on the dollar and treasuries — but the US has pocket aces" 34:38 Four pillars: fundamentals, momentum, positioning, valuation 36:40 Where Louis sees opportunity: Chile, Brazil, China, South Africa 37:21 China for beginners — the biggest misconceptions 39:05 China's growth miracle — it wasn't central planning 42:06 The Hunger Games of capitalism 44:24 How China really views the Iran war — purely economic 46:46 The most underappreciated macro theme right now 48:19 "Stupidly, stupidly undervalued" — the renminbi slam dunk trade 50:41 Why China kept the RMB artificially low for 8 years 51:49 The weaponization of China's own savings52:35 "China went to the gym" — why it could stand up to Trump 54:18 Who won the trade war? 56:12 The one risk keeping Louis up at night 57:08 "$120 oil breaks stuff" — the number to watch

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo, CEO of David Woo Unbound and co-author of the upcoming financial thriller Merry Go Round Broke Down, returns to the show to break down the geopolitical and market implications of the US-Iran conflict. Woo argues that markets are dangerously mispricing the situation, betting either on a quick Trump "TACO" or a rapid US victory — both of which he sees as unlikely. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, oil sitting near $100 a barrel, and Iran executing a measured, strategic response, Woo believes this conflict is far more protracted than Wall Street is pricing. He explains why Trump, now effectively a lame duck after the Supreme Court's tariff ruling, is unlikely to back down given the enormous legacy stakes, and why China's deep investment in Iran makes this the first real US-China proxy war. Woo also breaks down the winners and losers globally, shares his current positioning — short stocks, long oil — and warns that an interaction between rising oil prices, the AI bubble, and private credit stress could be the perfect storm markets aren't prepared for.Links:  Book: https://www.amazon.com/Merry-Go-Round-Broke-Down-Novel-Globalization/dp/B0GCX8Y6KTYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound00:00 Introduction00:43 Setting the geopolitical stage01:16 Why markets are dangerously complacent03:34 Why Trump won't TACO this time05:50 Trump's legacy shift — why Iran, why now07:48 Iran's military capabilities — what the US hasn't destroyed10:14 Oil at $95 — what's actually priced in12:47 The Strait of Hormuz and what markets are missing15:11 Can the Fed cut rates at $100 oil?16:00 Retail investors driving the market higher17:56 Global recession risk19:57 Winners and losers — Canada, Russia, Europe, Japan20:27 Why the midterms are almost irrelevant now24:41 Base case — Trump loses the House26:00 Why Trump is moving on Iran before lame duck sets in28:09 Regime change and the greatest presidential legacy29:55 China-Iran railroad and the real proxy war31:24 Can the US control the Strait of Hormuz?33:00 The Houthis playbook 35:15 UAE under attack — interceptors running out37:04 Iran's civilization and strategic depth39:12 David's positions — short stocks, long oil40:42 When will markets wake up?43:21 Most likely outcome — civil war not regime change45:11 What Xi Jinping is thinking right now47:03 Is this worth the risk for the US?49:43 The Pearl Harbor analogy and China's Belt and Road52:39 Gold, crowded trades getting blown out55:38 Private credit, the AI bubble and the perfect storm58:44 What's keeping David up at night — AI01:03:07 David's book — Merry Go Round Broke Down

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen warns the Trump administration is heading toward a financial crisis, driven by private credit contagion, hidden leverage, and a Washington that isn't paying attention. He breaks down the BlackRock blowup, the PIK loan problem, Iran's market impact, and explains why he's buying gold and staying out of financials.Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrapLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Intro and welcome to The Wrap with Chris Whalen00:36 - Classic risk-off period we'll remember for years 02:42 - Lloyd Blankfein says private credit "smells like 2008" — is he right? 05:00 - BlackRock marks $25M loan from 100 cents to zero in 3 months06:50 - Apollo CEO calls this a "shake out" 09:08 -Goldco 10:08 - PIK loans & "POOP" structures — is this the beginning of a default wave? 13:26 - Where Whalen is putting his own money right now 16:03 - "Every asset class is short interest rate volatility" — what that means for you 18:05 - Will the Fed cut rates? Whalen says yes — possibly as soon as March 19:46 - Nobody in Washington is talking about financial contagion — who should be? 22:22 - Tariffs: why Whalen calls the $175B refund story a "huge nothing"23:04 - Gold & silver: why Whalen is more confident than ever on precious metals 26:07 - Iran escalates: what it means for markets & why there's no endgame 27:08 - Teapot Dome, Warren Harding & the Trump parallel 30:37 - Viewer Mail: Is your annuity at risk if private credit blows up?31:49 - Viewer Mail: Is there an MBS story to the private credit unraveling?33:00 - Viewer Mail: The Fed's balance sheet surge — should you be worried? 35:00 - Viewer Mail: Are we heading back to a gold-based monetary system? 36:30 - Final thoughts: what Whalen is watching next week

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down the unraveling of private credit and why retail investors were never suitable for these investments in the first place. He explains how private credit shops have quietly gained access to Federal Home Loan Bank funding through insurance company acquisitions — a taxpayer-subsidized arrangement he finds extraordinary and plans to investigate further. On markets, Chris argues liquidity will be the defining theme of 2026, with money rotating out of speculative and private assets back into public markets. He also flags early warning signs in consumer credit, names the specific companies to watch for deterioration, and explains why the mortgage market needs rates to fall further before any real pickup in activity. On precious metals, Chris details a seismic secular shift underway as India joins China in moving away from COMEX pricing toward Asian markets — and warns that if COMEX cannot deliver physical metal against futures contracts, it could be forced out of the business entirely.Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Intro and welcome to The Wrap with Chris Whalen0:49 Private credit is unraveling — are retail investors about to run like Silicon Valley Bank3:51 The insurance company play5:20 Does the insurance and private credit connection create contagion risk6:05 Nvidia beats but the market sells it — is the AI trade structurally broken8:07 Why has the broader market held up despite the tech and SaaS selloff9:00 Liquidity is the theme of 2026 10:12 Banks discussion 14:49 Mortgage market — 30 year rates dip below 6%, does it last16:42 Will we see more rate cuts — Chris's expectations for Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair18:37 What it would take to unlock the housing market20:34 Tariffs21:50 The most important things for markets to focus on right now22:36 Silver — COMEX and London are losing their role as price setters26:36 Chris's portfolio — gold, silver, junior miners and why productive capacity matters27:18 Viewer question — Basel III, central banks, and gold as a tier one asset29:44 What Chris is watching and writing about next week31:12 Where to find Chris and The Institutional Risk Analyst — 25% off for viewers

Bill Fleckenstein, founder and president of Fleckenstein Capital, returns for a wide-ranging conversation covering what he calls one of the most confusing macro environments of his 40-plus year career. He breaks down how the passive bid has fundamentally changed market dynamics, creating an artificially priced market that is not a true price discovery mechanism and cannot end well. Beneath the surface of a tape that is only a couple percent off all-time highs, Bill sees a stealth rotation away from high-flying tech and AI names into old economy stocks — but without the contagion a pre-passive-bid market would have experienced. On gold, Bill explains why the move to $5,000 is a function of eroding confidence, weaponized financial systems, and unmanageable sovereign debt — and why the bull market is far from over since Americans have barely shown up to the party. He also issues a pointed warning on bonds, arguing the bond market has not sanctioned the Fed's rate cuts in what could be the early stages of the market taking the printing press away from the Fed — and predicts yield curve control is likely coming under the next Fed chair regardless of who it is.Links: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/0:00 Intro and welcome back Bill Fleckenstein1:39 Big picture macro view - "confused"4:24 Splatterings beneath the surface — what's really happening in the market5:51 The passive bid explained — why rotation feels impossible7:25 The tape holds together while market cap gets destroyed underneath10:58 Why the market isn't cracking — what would have happened without the passive bid12:40 Is this still a free market? The dangerous setup nobody appreciates15:16 Short selling 18:23 Bill's positioning 19:21 Gold at $5,100 24:18 Silver 30:33 Why gold should have been higher all along the way36:00 US debt at $38.7 trillion — is there a breaking point or slow erosion?37:49 Bonds — the big story most people are missing40:00 Is the bond market losing trust in the Fed?41:00 The bond market will ultimately take the printing press away from the Fed42:06 Inflation psychology — why the consequences of inflation are not transitory44:45 Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair 45:37 Yield curve control is coming 49:04 What would get Bill to deploy his 30-40% cash position51:26 The biggest risk nobody is talking about — the passive bid54:26 Parting thoughts and where to find Bill — fleckensteincapital.com

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen analyzes the Blue Owl situation as part of a broader pattern in private credit. He argues that private credit firms purchasing insurance companies is "the fox getting into the hen house" since insurance assets are held at book value rather than marked to market, beyond easy regulator reach. Chris makes the case that public markets are superior due to transparency and liquidity, while private markets mainly benefit Wall Street through higher fees, and predicts roughly half of private equity managers will struggle to raise capital due to poor performance. From his Washington visit, Chris notes redistricting has left few genuinely competitive House seats, discusses a Supreme Court case on Voting Rights Act enforcement, and predicts 2028 will be Rahm Emanuel versus Marco Rubio. He explains Vice Chair Michelle Bowman's proposal to roll back Basel III mortgage restrictions that have discouraged bank housing finance for 15 years. On silver, Chris describes Chinese exchanges imposing trading limits due to supply constraints, commercial buyers sourcing from artisanal mines, and potential COMEX cash settlement, noting he continues adding to gold and silver positions despite volatility.Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingLinks:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Preview: The fox getting into the hen house 0:38 Welcome back — Blue Owl and the private credit blowup 1:23 Chris's reaction to Blue Owl restricting redemptions 3:19 Why this matters for retail investors and retirees 4:21 Two reasons this matters — volatility and annuity risk 5:59 How many people truly understand this risk? 6:47 It's not a headline issue until it becomes one 9:22 The Modigliani-Miller Theorem explained 11:12 Do you dabble in private markets at all? 12:18 How do you see this ultimately playing out? 13:05 Half of all PE managers will go out of business 15:12 Do you get pushback from the industry? 16:06 Moving to DC — upcoming midterms 16:45 The disconnect between media narrative and reality 18:22 Supreme Court case on Voting Rights Act 20:33 Base case for midterms — who takes the House? 22:42 Trump administration's communication problems 23:30 Bold call: Rahm Emanuel for Democratic nomination 2028 24:56 The case for Rahm Emanuel 27:09 Marco Rubio vs Rahm Emanuel prediction 28:23 Michelle Bowman's significant speech on Basel III 30:07 How Basel III distorted the mortgage market for 15 years 32:15 What's going on in silver specifically? 34:55 The silver squeeze — producers going to artisanal mines 36:01 Still long gold and silver, adding positions 37:01 What Chris is watching next week

In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, calls the Federal Reserve "borderline cruel" after FOMC minutes revealed several participants wanted rate hikes despite Americans' financial wellbeing hitting record lows. Danielle argues we're already in a labor market recession that "won't be acknowledged for years but is undeniable to the people who are in it," pointing to unprecedented data: 12 consecutive months of negative payroll revisions, 419,000 net job losses when excluding education and health services, seasonal adjustment anomalies adding 140,000 phantom jobs in January, and unemployment survey response rates at record lows making the data unreliable. She highlights that Truflation shows inflation at just 0.7% while the Fed maintains hawkish rhetoric, that 52% of college graduates are underemployed with another graduating class arriving in two months, and that AI is destroying entry-level jobs in finance, accounting, and architecture without any retraining programs in place. Danielle warns about the societal implications of Gen Z and millennials (52.5% of voters) increasingly using buy now pay later for basic necessities like medical bills and utilities, while others use it for vacations with no intention of paying it back. She questions whether Kevin Warsh will hold to his stated principles about shrinking the Fed's balance sheet or cave to market pressure like Powell did in 2018, and reveals that Fed governor Michael Barr is already hinting at expanded social safety nets or UBI to address AI-driven unemployment. Danielle refuses to "gaslight Americans" about the economy and emphasizes the urgent need to think about retraining workers and the societal implications of mass youth unemployment.Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome back Danielle DiMartino Booth 0:52 FOMC minutes: Several participants want rate hikes 1:46 Americans' financial wellbeing at record lows — the disconnect 3:31 Truflation at 0.7% — what the Fed is missing 5:27 What's the Fed missing on the labor side? 7:06 Labor recession in plain sight — concentrated in non-cyclical sectors8:28 Buy now pay later for medical and dental bills 9:32 Gen Z and millennials: Taking on debt with no intention to pay 11:00 A revolt against the system? 12:15 The Fed didn't listen to your open letters 13:40 Rate hike talk while small business borrowing costs are "prohibitively tight" 14:59 Fed being sanguine on credit delinquencies 16:14 What would be the responsible thing for the Fed to do? 17:12 "It's getting personal" — Americans worried about losing their own jobs 18:02 52% of college graduates are underemployed 18:42 Is this AI or just an excuse? 20:08 What happens in 2028 if the pendulum swings? 21:32 Kevin Warsh — will he stick to his principles? 24:01 Is the Fed too beholden to the market? 25:15 Unemployment survey response rate at record lows 27:23 Base case for the economy — labor market recession continues 28:56 What keeps you up at night and what makes you hopeful?

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, predicts that over the next 18 months, markets will see both new highs and new lows amid heightened volatility. Ted currently holds 50% of his portfolio in short-term Treasuries (recently extending some to 3-year), waiting for opportunities as he notes that second years of presidential terms historically return just 1% and typically experience mid-year declines. He argues that financial repression—holding rates low while letting inflation run—is the only way out of America's $40 trillion debt crisis, which is why he's positioned in hard assets including gold, silver, miners, energy, and commodities. Ted recently trimmed silver positions after a 200% move in 2025, expecting consolidation back to $50-60 (from $76), and warns that hidden leverage is at record levels: margin debt as a percentage of market cap is at all-time highs, high-net-worth investors have massive off-balance-sheet securities-based lines of credit, and leveraged ETFs have exploded fourfold. He's critical of private equity for overpaying for companies and using secondary funds as a "gimmick," and predicts this will be a year for active stock pickers as the regime shifts from passive buying to passive selling when baby boomers (averaging age 71 this year) begin withdrawing funds.Links:Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisorsX: https://x.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsBook: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back Ted Oakley 1:14 Big picture macro view — dislocation since mid-October 2:59 Year 2 of presidential terms historically poor performers 4:05 Why second years are difficult 5:23 How to prepare for drawdowns 6:51 Why Ted holds 50% in short-term Treasuries 8:21 Can't own long bonds for the next 10 years 9:17 Are we past the point of no return on debt? 11:04 What $1 trillion really means — $100k/hour for 1,100 years 12:03 What's the end game? 13:02 Financial repression — the only way out 13:34 Regime change to hard assets 14:19 Gold and silver — took some profits 16:25 Trading in and out vs. staying long 18:21 Price levels for getting back into silver and gold 19:32 Regime change for hard, durable assets 21:06 Are we due for a major pullback or bear market? 23:09 Hidden risks — margin debt at record levels 25:12 High net worth debt hidden off balance sheet 27:08 Private credit and private equity — trouble brewing 29:40 Would the Fed intervene in a generational bear market? 31:09 The thesis on oil 33:22 Kevin Warsh as Fed chair — Ted's reaction 34:24 The Fed doesn't really matter for stock picking 34:52 Where are you finding opportunities today? 36:58 At what level would you deploy the 50% cash? 38:25 Takeaway for investors this year 39:54 Active stock pickers will outperform 41:05 Prediction for a year from now 42:22 Where to find Ted and closing thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen argues that the AI narrative is stalling and we're witnessing a sustained rotation from tech, AI, and crypto into safer, income-generating stocks. Chris points out that JPMorgan — arguably the best-run bank in America — has fallen from the top of his rankings to 87th place in just six months, a dramatic shift showing managers are rotating into smaller cap names. He describes this as a "manic, momentum-driven market" where the extraordinary gains of 2025 are now being given back. Chris is skeptical of both the AI and crypto narratives, calling them "driven by Wall Street hype," and notes that crypto is suffering specifically because the AI story has broken down. For 2026, he advises looking for safety and income rather than growth, remains long gold and silver despite volatility, and cautions that "this year is going to be a much more difficult year" for most sectors. On housing and the Fed, Chris lays out what Kevin Warsh and Scott Besant must do: swap the Fed's $2 trillion MBS portfolio to Treasury, restructure low-coupon securities into CMOs, and bury them in insurance company balance sheets to unlock the housing market.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome and intro 01:00 AI narrative stalling, tech's worst week since November 1:59 Is this a healthy correction or something bigger? 4:58 JPMorgan now ranks 87th — what does that tell you? 6:36 Small caps rule right now — managers rotating to safety 7:30 What does it mean if managers won't own the best bank in America?8:30 The link between crypto and AI 11:32 Chris is skeptical of both AI and crypto narratives 11:57 What's the next legitimate growth story for the US? 13:15 All that trapped private equity capital in tech 14:55 Fannie and Freddie earnings — but where's the growth? 17:00 What Warsh and Bessent need to do to fix housing 19:00 Should the Fed engage in fiscal issues? 21:54 The Fed's real mandate — keeping the Treasury market open 23:00 What should Warsh do with the MBS on the balance sheet? 24:58 Why we haven't seen a typical crash cycle 26:17 What's the trade for 2026? Safety and income 28:08 PennyMac's mistake — buying Cenlar 31:58 Viewer mail34:39 Gold and silver portfolio — lots of opportunity despite volatility35:00 Closing

Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, lays out his thesis for a "Goldilocks" first half of 2026, characterized by growth inflecting higher alongside continued disinflation — a very equity-positive environment. However, Warren identifies four key risks testing the market's delicate balance: vanishing MAG7 buybacks due to AI capex, software's existential disruption, Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination (which he calls "the worst pick for investors"), and precious metals volatility. Despite these headwinds, Warren argues the most bearish narratives are overdone. He notes that software has moved from overvalued to fairly valued, that post-GFC markets have returned double digits in every year with buyback contractions, and that extreme return dispersion near all-time highs historically resolves in six-month rallies. His core investment thesis: "When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted" — rotate from bonds into commodities as the ideal portfolio hedge. Warren maintains his equity overweight, expects the bull case to remain intact through H1, and sees the recent rotation as healthy rather than ominous.Links: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/https://x.com/WarrenPiesTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back Warren Pies 1:16 Macro picture: The secular debasement regime 3:30 Goldilocks for H1 2026 — growth up, inflation down 5:38 Four risks to the delicate balance 12:34 Is the market healthier than people think? The rotation argument16:38 Software went from overvalued to fairly valued 17:26 Markets at record highs 18:30 Extreme dispersion under the surface 22:18 Sentiment: More pessimistic than you'd expect near ATHs30:11 The four risks: Buybacks, software, Warsh, and precious metals30:52 Commodities thesis: When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted 37:38 Kevin Warsh and the Fed 45:22 10-year 49:53 The economy53:33 Where to find Warren and parting thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen discusses the structural conflict between President Trump and incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: Trump wants home prices to stay high, while Warsh wants to shrink the Fed's balance sheet — and "someone's going to be disappointed." Chris warns that resuming quantitative tightening could repeat the 2018 repo crisis, especially concerning given Morgan Stanley paid 45% for repo funding in Q4 2025. He breaks down the Penny Mac disaster, where Bill Pulte's $200 billion MBS buyback plan caused the stock to crash from $150 to $90 in a day, explaining why "when politicians play with markets, bad things happen." On housing, Chris argues there's no easy policy fix for affordability — prices simply need to fall 10-20% to normalize. He declares last year's speculation wave over, noting "we just ran out of runway," and advises investors to shift toward defensive positioning and stocks with cash flows. Chris remains bullish on gold and silver long-term despite recent pullbacks, urging viewers to buy the dips.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome 1:13 Last year was a year of aspiration — reality is setting in 2:30 Gold and silver pullback — Chris is buying the dips 4:19 Speculative money rotating from crypto to metals (Hyperliquid) 5:00 Still bullish on gold and silver long-term 7:11 Kevin Warsh and the yield curve problem 8:20 Politicians can't control long-term rates — but they keep trying 9:43 Can Warsh shrink the balance sheet without breaking something?11:46 Trump vs. Warsh: Someone's going to be disappointed 13:23 Significant number of realtors didn't do deals last year 14:38 Housing consolidation and overcapacity 15:26 Is housing a leading or lagging indicator? 17:04 The only fix: Home prices need to fall 10-20% 19:36 The Penny Mac bombshell explained 21:40 "Our leaders are not serious people" 22:53 What would smart housing policy actually look like? 24:35 Theme for 2026: Risk off and defensive positioning 25:00 Preserving capital over speculation 26:21 "We just ran out of runway" — the end of the speculation wave  28:11 Viewer mail: Congress stuck between a rock and a hard place29:12 The two bad choices: Hyperinflation or less growth 31:14 Americans hate paying taxes — and seeing money wasted 32:20 Closing thoughts

George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors, lays out his big theme for 2026: rotation. George argues that the debasement trade is the dominant macro narrative, with the bill coming due for decades of reckless fiscal and monetary policy. He calls the 60/40 portfolio dead, urging investors to dump bonds and buy gold, noting that gold miners could double in 12 months if prices hold. He makes the case that the AI trade is over. Noble sees energy as one of the most compelling opportunities. He expects emerging markets and foreign equities to continue outperforming the US, small caps to beat large caps, and the equal-weight S&P to trounce the cap-weighted index. His bottom line for investors: get out of bonds, buy gold, add energy, put money abroad, and switch from cap-weighted to equal-weight.Links: George Noble's Independent Research Conference: https://noble-capevents.com/X: https://x.com/gnoble79Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro to George Noble 1:17 The debasement trade: The big macro picture 3:42 The bill is coming due for decades of reckless policy 5:10 The US government's math doesn't work — bond yields way too low6:55 2026 theme: Rotation — don't worship the altar of price 7:06 The macro backdrop and where to be allocated 7:33 US exceptionalism is fading — fiscal pulse now in Europe 8:45 China outperforming the US — and it's going to continue 9:48 Rotation out of US dollar-based assets 11:27 Long bond headed north of 5%? Implications for housing 13:27 Credit spreads tight, inflationary boom possible 14:50 The bond market measured in gold — it's crashing 16:26 The 60/40 portfolio is dead 16:55 Inflation: People don't live on rate of change, they live on prices18:55 The K-shaped economy and rising prices everywhere 20:41 Gold update: You cannot be bullish enough 22:30 The song remains the same — macro drivers still in play 24:04 Gold miners could double in 12 months 25:21 Don't get caught up in short-term thinking 26:45 The Dunning-Kruger Institute of Finance 28:48 The death of speculation 29:26 Is it a stock picker's market again? 30:30 The Japan analogy: MAG 7 is today's Japan 1989 32:16 Just avoid MAG 7 and you'll outperform 33:23 Recency bias and why consensus is stuck 34:42 George is not bearish — he's rotating 35:12 Energy: Only 3% of the S&P — massively out of favor 37:46 Oil prices and the case for energy equities 39:14 Venezuela is a nothing burger — fade the hot takes 40:41 AI trade is a short: Nvidia, Tesla, software 43:05 SaaSmageddon and ServiceNow at 73x earnings 45:51 Rotation: The theme in one word 46:11 What should the average investor do? 48:36 The playbook: Equal weight, gold, energy, foreign markets, no bonds49:19 March 11th conference53:00 Closing

Alex Gurevich, founder and Chief Investment Officer of HonTe Investments, a Bay Area-based investment management firm, and the author of The Next Perfect Trade and Wall Street Journal bestseller The Trades of March 2020, returns to The Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, Gurevich discuss his updated thesis on interest rates, deflation, and the forces shaping markets. He argues that zero interest rates are "not off the table" — and that the probability is far higher than the market is pricing. He sees labor market deterioration happening quietly under the surface, warning that "the less visible it is, the worse it's probably going to be" because policymakers won't act until it's too late. Unlike the consensus worried about inflation, Alex is firmly in the deflation camp, though he notes any deflation can be countered by fiscal stimulus — he just doesn't think the government will act aggressively enough given how burned they were by the post-COVID inflation. He also discusses his newly released second edition of "The Next Perfect Trade," explaining why he kept the original text intact to maintain intellectual honesty about what worked and what didn't over the past decade. He declares the 40-year bond bull market "definitively over," shares his framework on carry as an underappreciated edge, and offers a fascinating take on AI's future energy demands potentially exceeding the output of the sun.Links: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Next-Perfect-Trade-Magic-Necessity/dp/1544550014/X: https://x.com/agurevich23Website: https://honteinv.com/0:00 Welcome and congratulations on the second edition1:19 The Next Perfect Trade — second edition out now 2:01 Setting the table: The macro view today 3:30 All the fireworks have been in precious metals 4:08 Interest rates are "pinned in confusion" 4:45 Alex's view: Leaning toward zero rates 5:40 Labor market deterioration — the less visible, the worse it will be7:20 The behavior of rates during Fed cutting cycles 8:58 What zero rates would mean for the economy 9:36 The relationship between stocks, jobs, rates, and growth is broken 11:30 Could we have strong growth and weak jobs simultaneously? 13:13 Deflation, not inflation 14:10 The pendulum: Deflation, then too much stimulus, then inflation again15:25 Recency bias from COVID stimulus keeping government cautious16:02 Precious metals: What does the move signal? 18:41 Why the second edition? Intellectual honesty 20:29 Admitting mistakes: "It was arrogant of me" 23:12 Growth as a trader — recognizing your weaknesses 24:08 The one chart to rule them all — is the 40-year bond bull market over? 25:41 Bull markets break up before they break down 27:19 The 2020 bond breakout should have been a warning29:47 The underappreciated power of carry 32:04 Be the casino, not the gambler 33:30 The corporate borrowing rate indicator 36:27 Why the indicator broke down in 2021-23 38:26 Has the macro investing world changed? 39:52 The most underappreciated force in macro right now42:46 AI's energy demand will overwhelm all sources — even fusion45:18 Is energy the trade? 46:55 The perfect trade: Japan is getting interesting 48:40 Where to find Alex and parting thoughts

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, calling him "the only choice" and a "classic hawk" who won't be afraid to lecture Congress on the link between deficits and inflation — something no Fed chair has done in 30 years. Chris explains why Warsh will likely shrink the balance sheet while giving Trump one or two rate cuts, and predicts the nomination may actually keep Powell on the board through 2028 just to deprive Trump of another conservative seat. On markets, Chris sees a more boring year ahead after 2025's extraordinary run, with gold and silver due for a 10-15% correction — though the bull market isn't over. He notes that crypto platforms like Hyperliquid are now trading precious metals, signaling money flowing from crypto into the "shiny object that's moving most." Chris also warns that private equity is becoming a major risk, with one in five firms now illiquid or in default, representing hundreds of billions in potential bank losses.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome 1:09 Kevin Warsh nominated as Fed Chair — Chris's reaction 2:15 Warsh will have to build consensus on the FOMC 3:01 Warsh won't be afraid to link deficits and inflation 3:15 Will Warsh be more hawkish? 4:26 Warsh during the financial crisis — what to expect 5:25 The martyrdom of Jerome Powell: Yellen and Powell did too much6:04 Hard decisions the market won't like 6:15 A conservative Fed puts pressure back on Congress 7:21 Will Trump like Warsh lecturing on deficits? 7:49 Powell refusing to say if he'll stay as governor 9:32 Is staying on the board political? 10:32 What will Powell's legacy be? 12:09 The state of the Fed's balance sheet: Poor 13:21 Central banks should keep assets short — the Fed didn't 14:15 Powell's comments on the deficit being "unsustainable" 16:08 Markets: S&P briefly hit 7000 17:47 Credit-sensitive stocks under pressure, metals outperforming 18:41 Labor market and layoffs: Amazon, UPS, FedEx 19:19 Personnel costs and inflation 19:42 Gold to $5,600, silver to $110 — correction coming? 20:50 Crypto platforms now trading gold and silver 22:21 Central bank gold holdings now exceed foreign Treasury holdings24:26 Where Chris is putting his money 24:43 WGA 50 bank rankings preview 26:57 Private equity risk: 1 in 5 firms illiquid or in default 28:29 AI companies leveraged to their eyebrows 28:50 Viewer mail: Taking profits on Annaly?32:29 Parting thoughts: Earnings, Warsh, and what's ahead 34:47 Closing

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, breaks down why the Fed's decision to pause was both premature and political, arguing Powell is "committing policy errors to quietly dig at the administration." She explains why the Fed should have cut today — and why she believes we need 100 basis points of cuts given deteriorating labor market data that Powell is choosing to ignore. Danielle unpacks the DOJ subpoena drama, revealing that betting markets dropped Powell's odds of leaving by August from 90% to 60% after the charges, and she believes he's now "enjoying the cat and mouse" with Trump. She revisits her open letter calling for the FOMC to elect Chris Waller as chair, explains why Rick Rieder would be "inviting the fox into the hen house," and shares her bold prediction: unemployment will have a 6 handle within a year. Plus, she discusses the hidden stress signals in Buy Now Pay Later data and why gold is behaving like a "meme stock." Links: Danielle's open letter: https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/10/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-2/Danielle's open letter part 2: https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/22/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-ii-public/Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome 1:05 The Powell subpoena: Danielle's reaction 3:35 Betting markets: Powell leaving odds dropped 4:51 Powell is the cat, Trump is the mouse 5:54 Why Powell is being political by NOT cutting rates 6:35 How Powell moved the goalposts on rate probability 7:32 The contradiction: Integrity vs. ignoring the American people 8:33 Financial conditions are easy because of passive investing, not the Fed 9:19 The shutdown has affected data integrity 10:05 Outlook for the year: Rate cuts coming? 10:50 Conference Board labor differential — recession signal 12:06 Should he have cut today? Yes. We need 100 basis points of cuts12:52 Open Letter Part Two: Why the FOMC should have elected Chris Waller 15:03 Rick Rieder: Inviting the fox into the hen house? 16:34 Who will be the next Fed chair? 17:35 What we don't understand about Fed chair transitions 19:04 The questions reporters should have asked Powell 21:29 Hidden signal: Google searches for "file unemployment" keep rising22:28 Buy Now Pay Later for dental bills and utilities — the stress is real25:41 Gen Z risk appetite and the environment that shapes investors 26:45 Gold is a meme now 29:01 DoubleLine roundtable: Long utilities, short financials 31:14 Commercial real estate capitulation and bankruptcies 32:14 Bold prediction: Unemployment will have a 6 handle by next year33:20 Parting thoughts: Don't forget about your neighbors 33:45 Closing

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down President Trump's Davos speech, noting that despite promises on housing affordability, the administration has no real plan to lower prices — and Trump explicitly said he doesn't want home prices to fall. Chris explains why that won't matter: hot markets like San Diego and Florida are already cooling, and he predicts a significant correction by 2028 that could push prices back to 2020-21 levels, leaving every mortgage made since COVID underwater. He warns that Trump will "run the economy hot" to win the midterms, with consequences to pay afterward. On rates, Chris explains why long-term yields keep rising despite Fed cuts and what happens if a new Fed chairman loses an FOMC vote. He also discusses gold's march toward $5,000, calling it "the return of gold" as central banks worldwide reverse 70 years of policy, and weighs in on the FDIC's approval of Ford and GM to establish deposit-taking banks.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira802Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome and intro 0:50 Trump at Davos: Greenland walkback and housing 2:55 The two sides of housing: Owners vs. buyers 4:00 401(k) withdrawals for down payments — does it help? 5:00 Why stoking demand pushes prices higher 6:17 Hot markets cool first: San Diego, Florida, Carolinas 7:58 Demographics and housing: Boomers vs. millennials 8:37 Rate cuts coming and the 2028 correction 9:35 What happens if prices fall 20%? Every post-COVID loan underwater10:10 Signs to watch for a broader market shift in 2026 12:36 Why long-term rates rise when the Fed cuts 14:15 How lenders are feeling right now 15:14 Gold closing in on $5,000 16:28 Trump will run the economy hot for the midterms 18:05 You pay for it after the election 18:51 What if the new Fed chair loses an FOMC vote? 21:00 What should the Fed actually be doing? 22:45 The asymmetry of gold and silver investments 26:32 The return of gold: Central banks reverse 70 years of policy 27:06 Peter Schiff's crisis call — does Chris buy it? 28:36 FDIC approves Ford and GM banks — what it means 32:46 Viewer mail: Gold as a hedge for real estate 33:45 Viewer mail: Stable coins debate 35:30 Closing

In this special in-person interview, Jim Rickards breaks down why the Trump administration is far more strategic than the media portrays, explaining the "flood the zone" tactic and Scott Bessent's "Three Arrows" approach to bringing down the debt-to-GDP ratio. Jim dismantles the popular "debasement trade" narrative, revealing that foreign central banks are not dumping Treasuries and that the real risk lies in the Eurodollar market and the $1 quadrillion derivatives system underpinning global finance. He warns that stablecoins are quietly hoarding Treasury bills needed for collateral — and the risk of fraud waiting to blow up. On gold, Jim explains why $5,000 is just the beginning, making the case for $10,000 to $25,000 based on historical precedent from the 1970s when the dollar lost 94% of its value measured in gold. He also offers a bold prediction: the potential breakup of NATO as geopolitical alliances fracture under pressure. More about Rickards: Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy, and his newest book MoneyGPT: AI and the Threat to the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links:  http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://x.com/RealJimRickardsTimestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:33 Why the second Trump term is different from the first 5:25 The Heritage Foundation and Project 2025 6:45 Executive orders and legislative wins 8:20 Federal courts and the Supreme Court battles 9:49 The economy: Is it really chaos? 11:32 The national debt: Why $39 trillion isn't the number to watch 13:45 The debt-to-GDP ratio explained 15:30 The Keynesian multiplier and diminishing returns 17:38 How we fixed the debt ratio after WWII (1945-1980) 18:36 Scott Bessent's "Three Arrows" strategy 19:19 The debasement trade: Why it's a false narrative 21:15 Are foreign central banks dumping Treasuries? (No) 23:15 What triggers a financial panic 24:45 How the Fed actually "prints money" 26:30 The Eurodollar market: Where real money comes from 28:00 The $1 quadrillion derivatives market 30:15 Stablecoins: The hidden risk in crypto 33:24 Tether's commercial paper problem 35:37 Gold: Why it's really moving 37:45 The Russian asset freeze and its unintended consequences 42:26 Gold does well in deflation too 45:48 The first Pentagon financial war game (2009) 49:54 Gold's trajectory: $10,000 to $25,000 or higher 51:45 The 1970s: When gold went up 2,700% 55:30 Anchoring bias and why $1,000 jumps get easier 56:33 Jim Rogers on the 50% retracement rule 58:49 Silver: Precious metal meets industrial input 63:21 Bold prediction: The potential breakup of NATO 67:34 Parting thoughts: True diversification

In this wide-ranging conversation, natural resource investor Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, shares his macro outlook, warning that the global economy is weaker than most believe. He explains why he sold 80% of his physical silver after its run from $20 to $75 — and redeployed half into silver mining equities where he sees better leverage if prices hold. Rick breaks down the stark math behind America's $160 trillion in combined liabilities versus $167 trillion in total private net worth, arguing that a "dishonest default" through inflation is inevitable. He shares his framework for knowing when to sell, discusses the coming AI disruption to white-collar jobs, offers his candid views on the Fed and taxation, and provides an update on Battle Bank's national rollout after a 54-month regulatory journey.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaTimestamps:0:00 Welcome back Rick Rule0:47 Macro outlook: Global economy weaker than people think 3:19 Precious metals are "absolutely screaming" 4:14 Silver update: The coiled spring has sprung 5:16 What's driving the gold price 6:40 US debt: $160 trillion in liabilities vs $167 trillion net worth 9:48 Honest default vs dishonest default 11:00 Why CPI understates real inflation 13:22 What would fix this? (Hint: Nothing politically viable) 15:29 Where could gold go from here 16:37 Warning: Expect 30-50% drawdowns in this bull market 18:23 Is gold and silver still contrarian? 19:16 Why Rick sold 80% of his physical silver 20:47 Redeploying into silver mining equities 21:57 Rick's investment memo framework 24:00 Silver equities: The leverage opportunity 26:44 Wealth taxes and the nature of taxation 29:52 The New York City socialist experiment 33:35 How we fixed it in the 1970s — five lessons 37:34 Innovation as the way out 38:36 "Take care of yourself — society won't be able to" 42:29 Thoughts on the Federal Reserve 44:45 What would free market interest rates look like 46:56 Signs the economy is deteriorating 49:53 AI and the coming white-collar disruption 54:09 AI: "Greatest memory, no common sense" 55:09 Battle Bank update 58:08 Closing

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." In this episode of The Wrap, Whalen breaks down why GSE release is officially off the table after Trump ordered them to buy back their own debt—a move Whalen calls "politics" driven by midterm election fears. He shares his take on crypto as "a polite form of gambling," explains why he prefers gold over silver despite silver's recent run, and dives deep into the housing market's affordability crisis. Whalen reveals his biggest concern for 2026: the hidden risks in private equity and credit, calling them "rancid pools of illiquid, opaque assets" that could cause major bank losses. He also weighs in on the DOJ's subpoena of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, predicting Kevin Warsh will likely be the next Fed chair, and closes with his outlook on markets, the dollar, and bank stocks.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Welcome back to the Wrap with Chris Whalen0:30 GSE release officially off the table?2:32 The $200 billion announcement is politics 4:08 Political landscape and midterm elections 4:49 Crypto legislation falls apart 5:14 Crypto as speculation vs. gold & silver 6:40 Silver's short squeeze and volatility 8:30 Gold vs. silver as long-term trades 9:07 Copper and Dr. Copper as economic indicator 10:10 Housing policy and affordability crisis 12:10 Will the Fed allow home prices to fall? 14:30 Bank earnings season takeaways 16:50 Consumer delinquencies and economic warning signs 18:12 The hidden risk in private equity and credit 19:48 The "POOP" problem in private lending 21:42 Private credit as a ticking time bomb 22:58 Jerome Powell's DOJ subpoena 24:21 Kevin Warsh and the future of the Fed 27:05 Could the Fed resume MBS purchases? 28:56 Viewer question: NLY/Annaly REIT 30:52 Parting thoughts and 2026 outlook 31:46 Closing

Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners and author of The Boock Report, sees "bells ringing" on the AI tech trade with Oracle, CoreWeave, and Nvidia showing tiredness, and warns the question is whether the baton can be passed to other sectors without the market falling apart. His three favorite groups for 2026 are energy (where $60 oil is "one of the cheapest assets in the world" and he sees $70+ minimum), agriculture (fertilizer stocks like Mosaic and Nutrient), and beaten-down consumer staples offering "bond-like dividend yields with equity-like upside." On Venezuela, he disagrees with the oil-for-midterms thesis - it's really about stiff-arming China, Russia, and Iran, and won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years anyway. He's been trimming silver after its vertical move toward $100 but still likes gold driven by central bank buying and dollar diversification. His biggest concern: if we lose the AI trade, its dominance is so large it could take everything down with it.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: Substack/The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/Twitter/X: https://x.com/pboockvarTimestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome Peter Boockvar01:18 2025 retro: World markets did really well, fire lit under international markets03:15 Bells ringing on AI tech trade - Oracle, CoreWeave, Nvidia tiredness05:45 China competition in AI - models more applicable, monetizing faster06:30 Bifurcated economy: Manufacturing recession, lower-middle income spending weak07:45 Data center build out - question of when not if it slows08:30 Delta earnings: Premium cabin strong, main cabin no growth09:15 Europe bifurcated too: Germany/France struggling, Spain/Greece doing well11:36 Three favorite groups for 2026: Energy, ag, consumer staples12:15 Energy: Bearish sentiment extreme, contrarian setup, CFTC net longs at 15-year lows13:30 Venezuela: 5-10 years before notable production increase14:15 OPEC production lagging quotas - most running at full capacity15:00 US shale production slowing, rolling over even in Permian15:45 Peak oil demand pushed out - hybrids winning, EV demand delayed16:30 Ag: Fertilizer stocks - Mosaic, Nutrient - down and out value plays17:15 Consumer staples destroyed over 12 months - deep value now17:52 Names: Kimberly Clark, Nestle, Pepsi, ConAgra, Coke, Reynolds18:24 Oil at $60 is one of the cheapest assets in the world - sees $70 minimum19:15 Energy holdings: Exxon, BP, Shell, Canadian Natural Resources, Oxy, Noble, EQT23:44 Venezuela won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years - focused on near-term25:32 Inflation: Conflicting dynamics - services decelerating, goods inflation returning27:00 Next Fed chair will have inflation dilemma - sticky around 3%28:45 Services inflation could rebound in back half of 2026 as apartment supply absorbed29:01 Reaction to Powell subpoena30:09 Powell is done cutting - will be playing 18 holes in June31:28 Last Fed cut was not necessary - took neutral rate below 1%32:30 Need low and stable prices first, then labor market improves35:34 Gold north of $4,600 - levels don't surprise, maybe pace did36:27 Silver at $92 - trimming position, tree needs to take a breather37:30 Gold thesis: Central bank buying, dollar diversification has more legs38:49 2025 lesson: World woke up to opportunities outside mag seven40:22 What not to own: Mag seven, long duration bonds40:46 Japan matters for global rates - JGB yields rising, canary in coal mine42:00 Bullish emerging market local currency bonds - better finances, cheap currencies42:57 EM names: China, Malaysia, Singapore, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Indonesia43:45 Biggest risk: Losing AI trade and gap up in long-term rates44:24 Optimism: Broadening out continues, international markets, commodity trade has legs45:03 Parting thoughts: Investors need to be flexible in their thinking

Jim Rogers, who has sold all his US shares, warns that the American market has been going up longer than ever in history and when people say "it's different this time," you should look out the window and ask questions. While he doesn't think we're in a bubble yet, he sees bubble characteristics forming and is watching for signs to start shorting - like kids leaving college for the stock market and everyone talking about their investments. Rogers is deeply concerned about the $38.6 trillion in balance sheet debt plus over $200 trillion in off-balance sheet obligations, noting that historically this has always led to big problems. He still owns gold and silver but isn't buying at all-time highs, holds positions in China and Uzbekistan, and says he's "not happy" about the US capturing Venezuela's president - calling it "not normal" and "not defensible on the international stage." His stark conclusion: "It's a good time to be an old American. Young Americans are going to have lots of problems in their lifetime."This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia00:00 Intro and welcome Jim Rogers01:28 US economy and market going up longest in American history - sold all US shares02:06 Has the US performance surprised you?02:53 What questions should we be asking right now?02:58 When should I start selling short? Exuberance setting us up for a top03:41 Still owns shares in Uzbekistan and China - assessing China after recent run04:12 Is the US in a bubble? Not yet, but beginning to have bubble characteristics05:31 Worst crisis in our lifetime still coming - debt is unbelievable07:55 Fed Chair Powell DOJ subpoena11:00 US debt highest in history of the world, Fed printing huge amounts of money13:12 Gold and silver performance - owns both, not selling, will buy more if they go down15:34 Room to run in precious metals? Debt skyrocketing, money printing everywhere16:36 What signs would make you short? 17:27 America losing financial wherewithal 19:44 Portfolio: Watching China go straight up, watching Uzbekistan, not adding21:30 Venezuela22:53 Nearly every stock market in the world making new highs - time to ask questions24:56 Greatest strength and weakness as investor? 25:57 Biggest mistake? 27:46 Parting thoughts

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." In this episode, Whalen calls Trump's $200 billion mortgage bond buyback idea "idiotic" and says institutional investors aren't the problem with housing - the Fed buying 30-year mortgages and driving up home prices 50% in five years was the real culprit. He explains the Fed has been "operating like a hedge fund" with dangerous variable duration securities that won't pay off for over 10 years. On Venezuela, Whalen says it should have happened long ago - the Iranians had offensive missiles there that could strike the US, and he's astounded previous administrations tolerated it. He warns AI hype is now a systemic risk to tech valuations, with Oracle's Larry Ellison risking his company to chase the crowd, and predicts 2025's "magical year with no apparent cost for risk" is ending as banks prepare for consumer credit deterioration in 2026-27.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira796Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen00:48 Non-farm payrolls report - weakness supports those saying economy is weak01:46 Rate cuts likely this year on short end, but long-term rates not coming down02:45 Trump's $200 billion mortgage bond idea - Chris calls it "idiotic"07:25 Housing correction already building in weaker markets08:24 Institutional investors not the problem - Fed buying 30-year mortgages was the problem12:04 What would actually help housing? Build more houses, change zoning13:04 NYC 18:16 Venezuela should have happened long ago24:49 AI hype now a systemic risk to tech valuations?27:06 Buying cheap financials - Flagstar below book, knows the team28:39 2025 magical year with no apparent cost for risk - that's changing30:05 Bank earnings next week30:35 Viewer question: Deregulation impact on banks and real estate32:53 Viewer question: If correction coming, wouldn't metals also fall?34:52 Wrap up and parting thoughts

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, argues the world changed forever after the US captured Maduro on January 3 in "Operation Absolute Resolve" - the first time in 100 years a country took out another head of state without consent. He explains this signals the death of the rule-based international order, making gold extremely bullish as countries can no longer trust the dollar system. Woo's key trades for 2026: short oil (December contract heading to high 40s/low 50s) as Trump needs to win the affordability argument for midterms, and he gives 65% odds of a massive $2,000 tariff rebate stimulus package. He admits getting gold completely wrong last year (up 60%) but remains bullish, warns the K-shaped economy consensus is about to be upended if lower oil and stimulus help the bottom 80%, and identifies the AI bubble bursting as the biggest risk - with Microsoft's January 28 earnings as a crucial date.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaWoo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).Links:  Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/DavidwoounboundTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome David Woo01:28 Macro picture - don't fight Trump 02:31 Midterm election is the biggest story of 202605:17 Affordability argument - Venezuela about oil - not democracy, not drugs12:45 Tariff rebate? 65% chance of massive fiscal stimulus before midterms16:10 Don't fight Trump - theme of 202616:35 Gold was up 60% - the ultimate Trump trade of 202517:15 Short oil is the ultimate Trump trade of 202619:03 K-shape economy consensus about to be upended20:43 What David got wrong on gold last year26:17 The world is not the same - Venezuela changes everything31:45 US tech lead over China shrinking from 2-3 years to 6 months33:54 Knock-on effects: Bearish emerging markets, bullish defense, bullish gold38:57 OPEC biggest loser - lost Venezuela, may lose Iran42:04 TACO or FAFO? 44:44 Why does stock market matter to Trump?49:34 Biggest risk for 2026: Bursting of AI bubble52:10 Retail buy-the-dip crowd - most powerful force in markets54:14 Wrap up and where to find David Woo

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, warns that despite stock markets hitting all-time highs, the real economy is sinking fast - private job creation has fallen below recessionary levels seen in 2007, and 90% of US consumers are now worse off than going into both the 2008 financial crisis and the 1929 depression. Using his Titanic metaphor, he explains first class passengers (top 10%) are still at the bar while third class is already in the water. Zeberg predicts a blow-off top with the S&P potentially hitting 8,200 before a crash worse than 2008, driven by central bank hubris that will trigger stagflation when the Fed inevitably intervenes. He's long-term bullish on gold and silver but warns of a short-term pullback as the dollar spikes to 120+ on the DXY during the deflationary bust, and explains why there's no easy way out this time - we've exhausted the free lunch of money printing.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: X: https://x.com/HenrikZebergSubstack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4H00:00 Intro and welcome Henrik Zeberg01:22 Macro view, the real economy is about job creation, not financial markets04:13 90% of consumers worse off than going into 2008 and 192905:58 Titanic metaphor: First class denying while third class already in water06:56 Chart: ADP private job creation declining to recessionary levels08:26 Illusion of stability: Stock market disconnect from economy09:07 Stock market doesn't predict recessions - look at unemployment11:15 Zeberg business cycle model pointing to recession14:55  Bond market sniffing out problems - yield curve signals20:02 Central banks and the Fed: The hubris problem23:02 2020 changed everything - inflation is back as a factor25:26 Gold and silver starting to show end game signs26:20 If Fed intervenes with more stimulus, it creates stagflation28:03 Henrik's views on gold and silver clarified30:55 Dollar regime coming - DXY could spike32:12 Long-term bullish gold/silver but short-term pullback expected35:35 Navigating different regimes as an investor38:19 Strong dollar implications39:06 Current regime still risk-on, riding the blow off top43:29 Why this recession will be worse than 200848:21 No easy way out - we're at the end of the Keynesian curve49:12 Can we get back to sound money? Only through pain51:41 Under the radar trend: Realization of how bad consumer really is53:55 AI won't save us short-term - actually reduces jobs needed54:25 Wrap up: Think for yourself, do your own research

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen" for his 2026 outlook.In this episode, Whalen warns of a market correction comparable to 2008, driven by carnage in private equity where hundreds of companies cannot be sold and sponsors are selling companies to themselves. After a decade-and-a-half Fed liquidity party, he predicts corporate credit will worsen in 2026, setting the stage for a housing market decline in 2027-28. Whalen reveals fraud has become epidemic in housing thanks to AI-altered bank statements, discusses the global power shift as Shanghai now sets gold prices (not Chicago or London), and explains why Powell will likely stay on the Fed board through 2028 to protect the institution - betraying Trump just like every Fed chair before him.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira794Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 Intro and welcome back to The Wrap with Chris Whalen01:25 2025 retrospective3:35 Big stories of 2026 05:30 Midterms 08:21 Maxi market correction coming alongside 2008 in textbooks15:09 Will Powell retire or remain on the board?16:45 Will we see a more hawkish Fed in 2026?17:50 Default rates21:25 What happens with housing in 202622:42 Drawing parallels to the Gilded Age26:29 Gold and silver - another good year ahead32:41 Viewer question: Annaly mortgage REIT common vs preferred36:48 What's on the radar next week: Big investment banks piece38:18 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen