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  • 71PODCASTS
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Best podcasts about ashamaluevmusic

Latest podcast episodes about ashamaluevmusic

Saxo Market Call
Diving commodities prices the driver.

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 1, 2022 18:49


Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3nvy7RF   - Click here to open an account with Saxo Today we look at commodities markets in the driver's seat as industrial metals prices resumed their nosedive, precious metals are trading near key levels, and crude oil sold off steeply, which in turn set the path lower for global yields. All of this is supportive of the Japanese yen, which spiked since late yesterday in the wake of a hot June Tokyo CPI release. We also review the equity market performance of the first half of 2022, note that financial conditions are tightening viciously, discuss Micron's very bad earnings report, the forward outlook for Q2 earnings and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Regime shift in volatility. EU NatGas woes mount.

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 30, 2022 22:43


Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3I4Kr4P   - Click here to open an account with Saxo Today we look at gathering gloom again overnight in equity markets and steep correction in oil markets yesterday, in part on US demand figures and possibly on rising concern of the impact of a new Covid wave. That concern is already washing over travel stocks. We also discuss the remarkable regime shift in volatility behavior in this cycle, credit strains flashing red, stocks to watch, the fresh aggravation of EU natural gas prices, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Market rips into reverse. Evening star on Nasdaq 100.

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 29, 2022 20:44


Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3nrQTsY   - Today we look at the US equity market ripping into reverse, in part on a massive slide in the expectations component of the US June Consumer Confidence survey, which has the market marking down Fed expectations slightly and finding safe havens in the US dollar and even treasuries, to a degree. We also look at crude oil not yet really fretting the demand destruction outlook, grains, stocks to watch for the rest of the week, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Eyeing quarter-end as next test for this market

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 28, 2022 20:52


Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3byPSN2   - Click here to open an account with Saxo  Today we remind of the upcoming quarter-end, both as the quarterly transition proved pivotal as Q1 yielded to Q2 and the equity market rolled over aggressively from a strong rally to a renewed and sustained sell-off. A look at conflicting signals from key commodities markets including copper, cotton and crude oil, discussion of Nike's outlook and the upcoming General Mills earnings, perspectives on today's June Consumer Confidence release and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Technically and seasonally pivotal week ahead

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 27, 2022 18:54


Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3HV5fvl   - Click here to open an account with Saxo  Today we discuss Friday's huge equity market rally and its likely proximate causes, especially the revision lower of a key US inflation expectations survey. Looking ahead, we consider the importance of the quarterly roll this week after a horrific quarter for equities as of last week's lows that may be driving rebalancing flows. As well, options exposures may be a key driver into quarter end. We also discuss the mounting impact of quantitative tightening in the weeks ahead, the outlook for the Q2 earnings season with a few interesting names reporting out-of-synch earnings this week, the US dollar and the macro calendar ahead as the ECB hosts a three day conference starting today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Yield plunge lifts equities out of the abyss

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 24, 2022 18:41


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3A33BGo  - Click here to open an account with Saxo  Today we look back at yesterday's historic session with big moves lower in the US and German 2-year yields responding to PMI figures for June indicating a more rapid decline in economic activity than estimated by economists. This is naturally lifting the recession probability and the timing of it causing safe-haven flows into bonds. The most interest rate sensitive parts of the equity market were the winners yesterday such as biotechnology and bubble stocks. Across currencies we observe weakness in the USD, AUD, and NOK reflecting lower economic activity, and the pressure is also coming of the JPY due to yesterday's rates move. On commodities we touch on the weakness in wheat and the tight physical market in oil. Other topics covered are the guidance cut from Zalando and container freight rates coming down. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

AwardsWatch Oscar and Emmy Podcasts
The AwardsWatch Podcast 141: Drama Series Emmy Predictions

AwardsWatch Oscar and Emmy Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 23, 2022 93:37


You know what's better than two podcasts in one week…three! On episode 141 of The AwardsWatch Podcast, AwardsWatch Executive Editor Ryan McQuade is joined by Editor in Chief Erik Anderson and TV Editor Tyler Doster as they breakdown the Drama Series categories for the 2022 Emmys. Unlike the comedy series categories, which were discussed on episode 140,  the majority of the winners from last year's categories are not in the race this year, given that The Crown has taken this year off to fill its final two seasons with a brand new cast. Many assume that this is the time for previous Best Drama Series winner Succession to come back and dominant the Emmy categories like it did two years ago. But a lot of great television has come out in that time, leaving a lot of uncertainty as to if the HBO drama has what it takes to take back its crown. Ryan, Erik, and Tyler break down the directing, writing, acting, and series categories, and the various challengers like Ozark, Squid Game, Severance, Yellowjackets, Better Call Saul, Stranger Things, Yellowstone, and more that plan on taking on the Roy family come Emmy nomination morning and the night of the ceremony. While these predictions, like the previous Emmy episodes, aren't set in stone, it was a fascinating conversation to see where the race is currently at, and what potential spoilers and dark horses lie in the weeds waiting to make their presence known. You can listen to The AwardsWatch Podcast wherever you stream podcasts, from iTunes, Soundcloud, Stitcher, Spotify and more. This podcast runs 1h34m. The final predictions episode will land around a week ahead of the Emmy nominations announcing on July 12. Till then, let's get into it. "Modern Fashion" by AShamaluevMusic used with permission.

Saxo Market Call
Don't look now, here comes coal!

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 23, 2022 23:10


Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3tYn4nM   - Click here to open an account with Saxo  Today we look at commodity markets continuing lower, with crude oil joining in the sell-off with sudden fury yesterday before bouncing. Elsewhere, the dire natural gas situation in Europe risks worsening further and is reviving the outlook for what few remaining coal related equities are left standing. Elsewhere, we talk recession risks, AUD under pressure on the commodity theme, equity earnings and macro calendar risks on the radar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Commodities rout points to recession fears

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 22, 2022 20:39


Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3QDRt4w   - Click here to open an account with Saxo  Today we note the whiplash-inducing turnaround in sentiment after yesterday's squeeze higher in US equities failed to spark any new positive tone in Asia, where an ugly slide in risk sentiment unfolded overnight, led by a steep sell-of in South Korean equities, as the country and its markets are at the intersection of many interesting themes. Elsewhere, an acceleration of the negative momentum in key commodities suggest that market is beginning to call a recession. Stocks to watch, the macro calendar, currencies and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

AwardsWatch Oscar and Emmy Podcasts
The AwardsWatch Podcast #140: Comedy Series Emmy Predictions

AwardsWatch Oscar and Emmy Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 21, 2022 100:23


Two podcasts in one week, what a treat. On episode 140 of The AwardsWatch Podcast, AwardsWatch Executive Editor Ryan McQuade is joined by Editor in Chief Erik Anderson, TV Editor Tyler Doster, as well as AwardsWatch contributor, host of the And The Runner Up Is podcast, and the new Content Update Editor for Entertainment Weekly Kevin Jacobsen, as they break down the Comedy categories at this year's Emmys. On episode 137, it was alluded to how the Limited or Anthology Series or Movie portion of the Emmy race seemed to be a little lacking in competition. Well, have no fear because the Comedy Series races are chock full of recent winners, old favorites that are looking to come back strong, and new series looking to capitalize on their freshmen season success. Last year saw the Apple TV+ darling Ted Lasso and the HBO Max smash hit Hacks take home the majority of the awards, and with very strong second seasons, they look to continue their winning streaks. But not so fast, as Barry season three has just wrapped up with one of the best season of television of the year, leading many to think it could be the one to beat when it comes to Emmy night. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, and Atlanta also returned with stellar efforts and have been previous winners in multiple categories. And there are newcomers in Only Murders in the Building, that led by a spectacular comedic trio, and Abbott Elementary, which could be stealing Lasso's title as the most charming show on television, and showing one of the best ensembles of the year. With also shows like What We Do in the Shadows, Russian Doll, The Flight Attendant, Reservation Dogs, Insecure, Julia, Curb Your Enthusiasm, black-ish, Our Flag Means Death, Peacemaker, and many more trying to compete for limited nomination spots, this is the most stacked Comedy Series categories we've had in years. Thus, Ryan, Erik, Tyler, and Kevin have tons to break down, with plenty of fantastic insight into how they see each category and show shaping out, and a lot of painful omissions from their new wave of predictions. You can listen to The AwardsWatch Podcast wherever you stream podcasts, from iTunes, Soundcloud, Stitcher, Spotify and more. This podcast runs 1h40m. The Drama Series Categories episode will be released sometime soon, but in the meantime, please check out all of our Emmy nomination predictions and interviews on the website. Now, let's get into it. "Modern Fashion" courtesy of AShamaluevMusic and used by permission

Saxo Market Call
BoJ losing control. Geopolitical risks for Tesla.

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 21, 2022 19:00


Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3Nce5pA   - Click here to open an account with Saxo  Today we continue our discussion on where markets are headed over the summer: into a period of calm, driven by an easing of the rise in yields and hopes for cooling inflation as economic data softens, or are we set for more shocks ahead on a fresh rise in especially US yields and the associated pressure on global financial conditions and risk sentiment? We also look at the geopolitical risks for Tesla due to Elon Musk's non-Tesla activities, discuss falling commodity prices as copper trades at important support, fresh pressure on the JPY as BoJ is losing control of its balance sheet and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Can bears go into hibernation for the summer?

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 20, 2022 20:19


Slide deck:  https://bit.ly/39F1k9u   - Today we look at the market hitting fresh lows late last week and debate whether some relief from falling bond yields and a sell-off in energy prices might bring some relief to this market, even if the sources of that relief are concerns that a recession is incoming. We also discuss inflationary pressures set to continue from the steep rise in US rents, look at crude oil and commodity performance broadly, the lay of the land in FX after a remarkable week, and where are are focusing on earnings and on the macro calendar this week. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
The BoJ is not for turning.

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 17, 2022 22:27


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3QnwQtf   - Click here to open an account with Saxo  Today we discuss the Bank of Japan maintaining its policy stance overnight as it continues to swim against the stream of global central bank tightening, leading to a sharp new JPY weakening move. This contrasts with the Swiss National Bank's large hike yesterday, which has driven a tremendous CHF rally, not least in USDCHF. Also, weak US data drives a drop in US treasury yields, where is the equity market focus: bond yields per se or on recession risks? Natural gas, gold, crude oil, metals, stocks to watch, upcoming earnings reports and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
FOMC pump deflating fast. SNB beats ECB to the punch

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 16, 2022 22:31


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3QtJarY   - Click here to open an account with Saxo  Today we look at what unfolded at last night's FOMC meeting, in which the Fed hiked the most since 1994 with the 75-basis-point increase to the policy rate, and how quickly the relief rally has faded this morning. An SNB rate hike of 50 basis points unfolded as we were recording the podcast - beating ECB to the punch. Is this a harbinger for the Bank of Japan capitulation on its policy, at least incrementally, tonight? We also look at the latest natural gas spike in Europe, crude oil selling off, factors holding back gold, the outlook for earnings and the US economy and more. Today's pod also features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Three days that could shake the world

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 15, 2022 26:11


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3xOy6OG   - Click here to open an account with Saxo  Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at the tremendously important event risks set for the balance of this week, with a sudden emergency ECB meeting cropping up on today's schedule, the FOMC set for a likely super-size hike tonight, but is the market really prepared? Finally, and potentially most important for the risk of cross-market contagion, the Bank of Japan is set to meet on Friday and the market has thrown down the gauntlet and is already actively challenging the bank's yield-curve-control policy with heavy selling of JGB futures ahead of that meeting. All of this while cratering crypto markets are aggravating risk sentiment at least at the margin. Helmets on, as this could prove an historic week. Today's pod also features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
A new market low, but we have yet to see a panic phase

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 14, 2022 21:12


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NWUJWY   - Click here to open an account with Saxo  Today we look at an ugly break to new lows for the cycle in equity markets as the market rushes to price in two 75 basis point moves from the Fed over the next two FOMC meetings, after Fed Chair Powell pushed back against larger hikes at the May FOMC meeting. We also look at the most tense policy situation across global markets, the Bank of Japan's yield-curve-control policy and offer perspectives on how to trade the situation. A look at Oracle's stellar results, VIX not yet showing any remarkable level of strain, latest on crude oil as Libya shuts in, gold and more on today' pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Very very heavy

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 13, 2022 17:53


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3twDh3d   - Click here to open an account with Saxo  Today we break down what spooked the market on Friday: the massive surge in US yields after the US CPI came in hotter than expected and not least, as the long-term inflation expectations in the preliminary June University of Michigan sentiment survey jumped to new highs. The US yield curve is suddenly close to inverting again after Fed expectations were marked sharply higher for coming meetings. We also look at concerns that Chinese serial lockdowns will continue to dog global supply chains from here, the risks in the crypto space aggravated by the unfolding meltdown, and a rocky ride ahead this week with multiple major central bank meetings on tap, headed by the Wednesday FOMC and whether Powell and company will have to re-up the hawkish stance. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
The unbearable tightness to be?

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 10, 2022 19:57


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3zvuIcS   - Today we look at the market tilting hard to the downside in the wake of the ECB meeting yesterday, after the meeting jolted EU interest rates higher, with a blowout in peripheral spreads spoiling the recent euro rally and sending the single currency tumbling by day's end. We also look at the market eyeing today's US CPI release with trepidation, as a strong core rate in particular could further spook markets on the need to price even more tightening from the Fed as hopes for inflation rolling over may be spoiled for now. Thoughts on grains, gold, Tesla in trouble and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
A pivotal ECB meeting today. Watching CNHJPY.

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 9, 2022 19:08


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Q9OWyA   - Click here to open an account with Saxo  Today we preview today's pivotal ECB meeting as rate expectations have rushed to new highs for the cycle this week in anticipation of the ECB's anticipated July rate lift-off, with the market divided on whether the ECB is ready to hike 50- or 25 basis points to initiate the tightening cycle at the July meeting. We also look at new highs for the cycle in crude oil yesterday, natural gas markets roiled by a fire at a US LNG facility, the ongoing JPY volatility (note CNHJPY at 20.00!), and important stocks to watch today, including Credit Suisse, Meta, Roku and DocuSign. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Yen drop is outstripping fundamentals

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 8, 2022 22:30


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3MJC0Nb   - Today we discuss the market managing a comeback from a break of support yesterday as volatility drops to new local lows. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen moved aggressively lower despite a consolidation in global bond yields, an indication that speculative flows are taking over from the fundamental backdrop. We also break down the crude oil supply situation, developments in the uranium market, gaining exposure to rising inflation in rents via REITs and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Yen spinning into the abyss on rising global yields.

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 7, 2022 19:53


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Mjlymo   - Today we look at a fresh pop in global yields helping to drive a sentiment shift lower, although financial conditions and volatility have yet to show any real new unease. We also look at the Lawrence Summers Group arguing that rents are a key inflation driver and that inflation risks becoming unanchored, requiring a real "Volcker moment" for the Fed to get ahead of the curve. Elsewhere, high energy prices are an important market risk, while metals are stumbling after a big pull higher in copper last week. In FX, the JPY is spinning into the abyss on the rise in global yields while sterling is in focus after Boris Johnson survived a leadership vote. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Equities climb wall of inflation, yield rise worries

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 3, 2022 22:19


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3x1WZox   - Today we look at a market posting a strong session yesterday as it brushes aside the pressure from a fresh pop in commodity prices, especially crude oil, and the general rise in global bond yields. Market sentiment and the recently easing financial conditions and especially volatility face a key test today in the form of the latest US payrolls and earnings data and the May ISM Services survey. We also break down yesterday's OPEC+ meeting, which agreed on a production increase, but one that looks like political theater given that the cartel can't produce its current quotas. Copper popping higher, FX themes, earnings up next week and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Yields jump back higher, curbing market enthusiasm

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 2, 2022 17:43


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3GKzCo0   - Today we look at a surprisingly strong US ISM Manufacturing report for May helping to further boost the comeback in US treasury yields and capping a choppy equity market session in the US, with rather more important US data coming up tomorrow in the form of May payrolls and earnings and the ISM Services. Elsewhere, we look at the strong easing in financial conditions of the last couple of weeks, the important OPEC meeting today, key tech stocks that are getting their financial priorities in order, and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Cue QT as US yields the focus across markets through Friday US data

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 1, 2022 20:27


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3aD70kB   - Today we look at yesterday's choppy market session, which was buoyed off the lows by a crushing blow to Brent crude prices intraday on a story that OPEC may be ready to exempt Russia's production and allow for production increases from Saudi Arabia and other members. But is there really any spare capacity that can come online? We also look at strong US data points yesterday supporting the rise in US treasury yields and whether we are in for another narrative shift across markets if yields are set to rise further just after consensus was developing that yields had reached a major top. The dump lower in wheat prices, perspective on MongoDB ahead of its earnings report, FX and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Tabletop Games Blog
First time teach (Topic Discussion)

Tabletop Games Blog

Play Episode Listen Later May 31, 2022 7:00


I have now spoken quite a bit about how to teach board games to people. Those articles were about teaching games that you have already played yourself and therefore know relatively well. However, when you buy a game, you will be faced with the difficult task of teaching the rules for the first time, before having played it yourself even once. Read the full article here: https://tabletopgamesblog.com/2022/05/31/first-time-teach-topic-discussion/ Useful Links How to teach board games: https://tabletopgamesblog.com/category/teaching/ Intro Music: Bomber (Sting) by Riot (https://www.youtube.com/audiolibrary/) Background Music: Way by AShamaluevMusic (https://www.ashamaluevmusic.com/) If you want to support this podcast financially, please check out the links below: Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/tabletopgamesblog Ko-Fi: https://ko-fi.com/TabletopGamesBlog Website: https://tabletopgamesblog.com/ (Photo by Bit Potato on Unsplash) --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/tabletopgamesblog/message

Saxo Market Call
Crude awakening, Biden summons Powell to Oval Office

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 31, 2022 25:14


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3x0MxP7   -  Today we look at the huge fresh surge in crude oil prices as Europe moves ahead with further restrictions on Russian oil imports. This is providing a headwind for risk sentiment, as is a jump in US yields after the US Fed's Waller talked up several 50 basis point hikes and Biden summoned Fed Chair Powell for a rare meeting in the Oval Office today. In equities, we look at rebound behaviors within historic bear markets as this is now the 15th worst drawdown in US equity market history since 1929. Wheat, industrial metals, the USD and FX themes, corporate credit and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Where does this squeeze get a nosebleed?

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 30, 2022 20:03


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Gubx4q   - Today we look at the squeeze in equity markets that extended aggressively into the close of last week, with this week off to a strong start, in part on hopes for a shift in China's covid policy. We also look at the dissonances in the narrative should China drive new global demand that reaggravates inflationary dynamics as some of the recent market rally has been on hopes that inflation fears and anticipated Fed tightening policy have peaked for the cycle. We also highlight the stress in the VC space, Hungary's Orban boxing above his weight class and risks to HUF, the dynamics in the crude market as Brent posted its second highest weekly close for the cycle last week, earnings ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Special Edition: Are we set for one of the great bear markets of the century?

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 27, 2022 19:22


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3wLrXkI   - This Special Edition podcast features Peter Garnry, Saxo's head of Quant and Equity Strategy who offers his perspective on the status of the current US equity market drawdown and what makes it unlike any other market drawdown, relative to the current economic backdrop, since at least the 1980's and even the early 1970's. That's because we have nearly reached classic bear market status (a -20% drop from the top) even with a US economy that has yet to roll over and a Fed that is still bent on tightening policy further. We also look at why this drawdown is likely to achieve "top"-five status among bear markets of the last century as inflation is likely to continue even on any softening growth, preventing the kind of QE and rate cut response that has driven the levering up and serial asset price bubbles since the mid-late 1990's. This episode was recorded on Wednesday, May 25, with John J. Hardy hosting. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Special Edition: Technical analysis with Kim Cramer Larsson

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 26, 2022 22:45


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3sXgcq8   - This Special Edition podcast features Kim Cramer Larsson, Saxo's head of Technical Analysis who takes us through the technical chart outlook for a wide array of assets including the S&P 500, DAX, Brent Crude, US 10-year treasury yields, EURUSD and other FX pairs, with an eye on key support and resistance levels, trend status and a flexible outlook on scenarios that could develop from here.  This episode was recorded on Wednesday, May 25, with John J. Hardy hosting. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Bubble sectors are dragging hard on this market

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 25, 2022 27:41


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3wQ5SBg   - Today we look at the normally high-beta bubble sectors continuing to weigh very heavily on the US equity market, even as the S&P 500 managed to pull solidly off the lows yesterday. We continue to highlight the "Bermuda triangle" of Tesla-ArkInvest-Crypto as an ongoing contagion risk. We also look at the market impact of a trio of weak US economic data points, the latest on crude oil and natural gas, FX moves and the status of  the US dollar, upcoming earnings including Nvidia and Snowflake, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Oh, SNAP!

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 24, 2022 21:38


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3sS5am7   - Today we look at the case of whiplash administered to the US equity market yesterday after a positive session in the US was spoiled after hours by a weak forecast from social media company SNAP, which has contributed to a general mark-down of US futures into the European trading session today. Elsewhere, we look at whether recession risks are over-estimated for the near term as PMI's suggest economic activity remains in expansion even as confidence has cratered. A breakdown of grains, crude oil and natural gas, earnings stories ahead and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Bounce unlikely to achieve more than dead cat status

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 23, 2022 21:26


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3GdwCQK   - Today we look at the bounce in the US market on Friday from a key technical level near 3,800 in the S&P 500, just after the market had taken out recent cycle support levels. Meanwhile, lower US treasury yields and a squeeze on USD longs have helped drive a modest bounce in sentiment, though we remain very cautious. Also today: AI pipedreams, the latest on global food concerns, natural gas, FX, gold, earnings ahead this week, how to understand equity valuations, using Zoom Video Communications as an example and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Tabletop Games Blog
Crescent Moon (Saturday Review)

Tabletop Games Blog

Play Episode Listen Later May 21, 2022 13:14


The Caliphate is in turmoil. The Murshid spreads its influence and whispers into the Sultan's ear, trying to affect where they build their magnificent towns and cities. The Warlord ravages the lands, plundering and destroying everything in their way. Nothing is safe and everyone has their own goals. So as the sun sets on the deserts, mountains and fertile lands and as day turns to night, the warring factions prepare for another day and get ready to put their plans into action. For now, though, it's the time of the Crescent Moon by Steven Mathers from Osprey Games. Read the full review here: https://tabletopgamesblog.com/2022/05/21/crescent-moon-saturday-review/ Useful Links Skora: https://www.insidethebox.games/product/skora Inside the Box Board Games: https://www.insidethebox.games/ BGG listing: https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/271645/skora Other games in the Lunchbox Collection series: https://tabletopgamesblog.com/category/lunchbox-collection/ Rory Muldoon interview: https://tabletopgamesblog.com/2020/10/14/rory-muldoon-let-me-illustrate/ Intro Music: Bomber (Sting) by Riot (https://www.youtube.com/audiolibrary/) Incidental Music: Fortress by AShamaluevMusic (https://www.ashamaluevmusic.com/) If you want to support this podcast financially, please check out the links below: Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/tabletopgamesblog Ko-Fi: https://ko-fi.com/TabletopGamesBlog Website: https://tabletopgamesblog.com/ --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/tabletopgamesblog/message

Saxo Market Call
Framing the current equity market drawdown

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2022 23:11


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3MyCd6t   - Today we look at markets tip-toeing back away from the cycle lows, especially after a rate ease in China buoyed sentiment there. We also highlight a huge ongoing shift in portfolio allocations as a major Blackrock momentum fund (MTUM) is set for a massive rebalancing. And we put the current overall market drawdown in historic perspective, warning that investors need to zoom out to consider the 100-year timeframe rather than the merely the post-GFC one. Thoughts on industrial and precious metals, FX and the status of the US dollar rally as well as a preview of next week's earnings- and macro calendar also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Market tilts back to the edge of the abyss.

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2022 22:21


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NpZd7O   - Today we break down the worst session for US equities in over two years after another large US retailer, this time Target, saw its share price gutted after noting inflation driving rising margin pressures. As stocks are back at the precipice of key support, we take a look at next potential downside targets, the remarkable lack of a "normal" VIX forward curve given market stress at present, Tesla's Elon Musk becoming a loose cannon after Tesla kicked off the S&P 500's ESG index, look at JPY wrestling with the USD in FX, CAD concerns, crude oil, industrial metals and grains and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Equities nearing pivotal resistance. US housing rolling over.

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 18, 2022 25:19


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3lj2Nof   - Today we break down the strong market session yesterday, with crypto-related names the star performer on a day that Bitcoin is still struggling to find separation from 30k, and with the market higher despite a fresh hawkish broadside from the Fed as Powell claimed the Fed won't hesitate to take the Fed Funds rate above neutral. Key short-term resistance is coming into view in US stocks and is already here in Europe. Elsewhere, we look at a worst in 35-year drop in Walmart on its profit forecast, discuss a misguided forecast on the housing market from Home Depot CEO after that company got a boost from its earnings report, look at evidence the from leading indicators showing that the US housing market is rolling over, the latest on crude oil and natural gas, earnings and macro data up today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Interesting divergences in a temporarily quiet market

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 17, 2022 22:48


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NfKsUQ   -  Today we note the interesting and remarkable divergences in market internals yesterday despite the nominally uneventful session, one that saw VIX volatility continuing its freefall back into the range. We highlight widening corporate bond spreads as a concern, run through the latest on grain prices and copper, talk Tesla's weak performance, stocks and earnings to watch today, FX themes and gold, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Catching knives a dangerous pastime

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 16, 2022 18:15


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3sGvAab   - Equity markets surged on Friday in what looks so far like a short squeeze as the market ran dry of fresh sellers, with the most speculative sectors backing up in spectacular fashion after Bitcoin and the Tether "stable coin" survived existential threats late last week. Today we look at fresh concerns on the outlook for global food prices as India has moved to ban wheat exports on weather related developments there, sending wheat limit up in Chicago. We also discuss the latest on Elon Musk's Twitter acquisition intentions, the weak ahead in earnings and macro event risks and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Tabletop Games Blog
Skora (Saturday Review)

Tabletop Games Blog

Play Episode Listen Later May 14, 2022 7:25


The boats were making their way out to sea, heading for the three main fishing grounds off the coast of the Isle of Norsica. You were hoping that your fleet would bring back the best catch. It would require brain and brawn to beat the rival clans and land the biggest fish. If your clan could grab the most lucrative haul, you would be crowned Skora by Rory Muldoon from Inside the Box Board Games. Read the full review here: https://tabletopgamesblog.com/2022/05/14/skora-saturday-review/ Useful Links Skora: https://www.insidethebox.games/product/skora Inside the Box Board Games: https://www.insidethebox.games/ BGG listing: https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/271645/skora Other games in the Lunchbox Collection series: https://tabletopgamesblog.com/category/lunchbox-collection/ Rory Muldoon interview: https://tabletopgamesblog.com/2020/10/14/rory-muldoon-let-me-illustrate/ Intro Music: Bomber (Sting) by Riot (https://www.youtube.com/audiolibrary/) Incidental Music: Horizon by AShamaluevMusic (https://www.ashamaluevmusic.com/) If you want to support this podcast financially, please check out the links below: Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/tabletopgamesblog Ko-Fi: https://ko-fi.com/TabletopGamesBlog Website: https://tabletopgamesblog.com/ --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/tabletopgamesblog/message

Saxo Market Call
Markets are under siege, and volatility is only warming up

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 12, 2022 22:20


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3subXBY   - Fires are springing up everywhere and it feels like markets are under siege, but the volatility curve doesnt even look particularly alarming yet. We focus on the areas that could continue to keep markets on tilt, including the breaking of the largest "stable" coin Tether already in evidence today after Bitcoin melted through a huge chart level yesterday, the Hong Kong dollar peg under pressure, the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark triangle, etc. In FX, the focus is on the jolt higher in the JPY even more so than the ongoing USD strength, while commodity traders have it relatively easy on the volatility front, outside of coffee. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Market slows the bleeding. Gold rally on life support.

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 11, 2022 21:30


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3N361bd   - Today we look at a pause in the equity market slide a day after the worst day for global equities in nearly two years, identify important resistance levels for the S&P 500, talk commodities from copper and gold (where the last gasp support has been tested) to natural gas and crude oil. We also highlight relative strength in the major currencies, the muted EURUSD countertrend price action, and run down the earnings and macro calendar for today. We continue to highlight the systemic risk in the crypto space if Bitcoin punches below 30k. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Worst day for equities yet. (Un?)stable coins on the radar.

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 10, 2022 21:29


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3MXQZTY   - Today we look at the worst single day for global equity markets since 2020 as the major US average broke below key support.  Signs of poor liquidity abound, as the cryptocurrency space was in for a drubbing and one of the stable coins lost its grip on parity with the US dollar. We look at the US treasury yields, commodity developments from metals to energy and agriculture, key stocks to watch, especially Tesla as a bellwether, earnings head and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on  commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
The beatings will continue until morale improves

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 9, 2022 23:04


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3slgyqq   - Today we look at the liquidity pressures keeping risk sentiment in the dumps as long US treasury yields and the US dollar continue to rise. US equities are perched at the lows for the cycle once again and we wonder where any sustained relief will come from until the Fed eventually has to exercise its put, but unable to do so given its primary focus on inflation. We also look at forward return potential now that global equities have come down from extremes, commodity positioning and sentiment on China's Covid lockdown impacts, earnings ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on  commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Markets tilt viciously back into distress mode

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 6, 2022 21:04


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LS5h8E   - Today we look at the vicious swing back to risk aversion as the squeeze after a less hawkish than expected FOMC meeting failed even to hold for 24 hours. We ask whether Tesla is the last holdout for retail bulls and where to look for a technical capitulation there. We also discuss the implications of Chinese leader Xi doubling down on China's "dynamic zero Covid" policy, including on commodities, look at signs of a weak consumer sector in Europe, break down the ugly slide in sterling after an extremely downbeat Bank of England and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on  commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Powell invokes Volcker, but has audacity to ease relative to expectations.

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 5, 2022 24:35


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LNyWzM   - Today we look at the first dovish surprise (relative to expectations) from the Powell Fed in many months and the sharp short squeeze it inspired as we wonder if this is a mere kneejerk that will fade within days or if market sentiment could stabilize for a bit longer. Certainly, financial conditions and rising energy prices are tightening the noose on the global economy despite Powell's pussyfooting around. We also take a look at crude oil and natural gas, copper, supply chain concerns in China, BMW's outlook, Shopify and other earnings reports on the radar, FX and the Bank of England today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on  commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Fed Chair Powell in the hottest of seats at tonight's FOMC

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 4, 2022 19:15


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3yd6Tpy   - Today we look at the market trading on a nervous footing ahead of tonight's FOMC meeting as we all wonder what the meeting will deliver and how the market will react. In particular the size of the hike today and any guidance in the Q&A of the Powell press conference will be pivotal, as will be the reaction for both the long end and the short end of the US Treasury yield curve. We also break down the outlook for  crude oil and copper, preview the Bank of England tomorrow and discuss the many moving parts in equities as companies report and grapple with supply chain, and  in some cases, demand headwinds. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Special Edition with Steen Jakobsen

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 3, 2022 34:38


Today's special edition podcast, recorded May 2, features an interview with Saxo Chief Economist and CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at the current lay of the land across markets, discussing the funk equity investors find themselves in as they await this week's FOMC meeting, how far the Fed is ready to take policy tightening, USD liquidity challenges and therefore challenges for global liquidity, the ongoing impact from the war in Ukraine, the hapless Bank of England and headwinds for the UK economy, deglobalization and limits of the physical world, China and more. John J. Hardy hosts. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Markets on tilt with FOMC meeting up midweek

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later May 2, 2022 18:46


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3vxzofF   - Today we look at a very ugly close to markets on Friday, as the rally attempt in the wake of Amazon's  negative shocker late Thursday faltered and markets closed right at the downside tipping point ahead of this week and the much anticipated FOMC meeting up on Wednesday. We also look at why semiconductors have underperformed, signs of limitation in the physical world, including on food, positioning in commodities, the Aussie ahead  of tonight's RBA meeting and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Sentiment bounces, but Amazon...

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 29, 2022 24:37


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3OJdVbo   - Today we look at whiplash for US equity traders as sentiment rallied strongly yesterday from depressed levels, only to have a ton of bricks dropped on the market by a very weak Amazon report, all while hopes for Chinese stimulus in the background drove strong sentiment in Asia. We also discuss Apple's supply chain concerns, the outlook for energy given the ongoing lack of investment, fresh spikes in fuel prices, financial conditions, a big week ahead for macro as the FOMC announcement is up next Wednesday, with today's US PCE inflation data for March one of the last big macro data points ahead of that meeting. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Saxo Market Call
Dollar danger, Meta bounce in a heavy market. Apple on tap.

Saxo Market Call

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 28, 2022 20:25


Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3kj2poX   - Today we look at a US equity market that posted a nervy session yesterday, with a surge after the close from less bad Meta news than feared. We still assess that the market is trading heavily, with additional danger from a surging US dollar as USDJPY surged to new 20-year highs on the Bank of Japan doubling down on its yield-curve-control policy and therefore deepening its loss of control over its balance sheet. We also look at more earnings ahead, including Apple and Amazon tonight, edible oil prices a concern for global food inflation, gold, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic