Podcasts about producer price index ppi

This week Will and Ben check in on inflationary measures and USDA's updated supply and demand numbers.Market recap (changes on week as of Friday's close): » May 2025 corn down $.11 at $4.58» December 2025 corn down $.03 at $4.51» May 2025 soybeans down $.09 at $10.16» November 2025 soybeans down $.07 at $10.18» May soybean oil down 1.83 cents at 41.59 cents/lb» May soybean meal up $9.40 at $305.90/short ton» May wheat up $.06 at $5.57» July 2025 wheat up $.08 at $5.73» May 2025 cotton up 1.30 cents at 67.37 cents/lb» December 2025 cotton up $1.52 at 69.98 cents/lb » May WTI Crude Oil up $.18 at $66.96/barrel Weekly highlights:US job openings in January were reported at 7.7 million jobs- that was up from a two year low of 7.5 in December 2024.The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported up at 0.2% month over month vs expectations of increasing 0.2%. The annual CPI increased 3.1% vs 3.3% last month and expectations of 3.2%.The Producer Price Index (PPI) was flat month over month in February- below expectations of 0.3% growth. The annual PPI was reported at 3.2%- down from 3.7% in January.The Preliminary Consumer Sentiment value fell harder than expected in March. Consumers have concerns about economic health and high levels of future inflation.US retail sales were up 0.2% in February compared to January, but below the 0.6 growth expectations. Year over year retail sales are up 3.1%.USDA left the corn and soybean balance sheets virtually unchanged this month- the exception being a 15-cent decline in the season-average price for soybeans. Sorghum demand categories continue to change, and wheat saw reductions in demand and price.US crude oil stocks were up 60.8 million gallons while gasoline and distillate fuel stocks were down 241 and 65.5 million gallons, respectively. Implied US gasoline demand was up 3% from last week and up 8% compared to the prior four week average.US ethanol production pulled back to 312 million gallons- down from 321, but up from 301 last year and the five-year average of 296 million gallons. Ethanol stocks increased 3.7 million gallons but remain just below the all time record set in April 2020 at the start of the Coronavirus pandemic.The National Oilseed Processors Association reported their members crushed 177.9 million bushels of soybeans in February- below all pre-report estimates.Weekly grain and oilseed export sales were neutral to bullish on the week- corn sales of 38.1 million bushels were in line with pre-report expectations but up from the week prior. Soybean and wheat export sales of 27.6 and 28.8 million bushels, respectively were both above all pre-report expectations. Sorghum sales were healthy at 1.3 million bushels. Rice sales fell to a 5-week low at 0.7 mil. Cwt.Open interest in futures and options of grains and oilseeds was up 0.3% week over week. Producer and merchants reduced their net short position 71,035 contracts, while money managers were net sellers again this week- increasing their net short position. Weekly grain and oilseed export inspections were solid this week. Corn and soybean inspections of 65.3 and 23.8 million bushels were both within range, while wheat inspections of 18.1 million bushels were bullish- above all pre-report expectations. Topics:» Market recap» Checking inflation measures» USDA updates its supply and demand estimates» Oilseed crush comes in below expectations» Reports to watchConnect with Brownfield Ag News:» Get the latest ag news: https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/» Subscribe to Brownfield on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@BrownfieldAgNews» Follow Brownfield on X (Twitter): https://x.com/brownfield» Follow Brownfield on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/BrownfieldAgNewsAbout Brownfield Ag News:Brownfield Ag News is your trusted source for reliable agriculture news, market trends, weather updates, and expert interviews. Get comprehensive coverage and stay ahead in the ever-evolving agriculture industry.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the JOLTS report, CPI and PPI data, the equities market, tariffs, foreign government spending, the credit market, and the upcoming FOMC meeting.  Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyDonald Saverno, Director of Investment ResearchRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities01:46 – The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report was outlined 7.7 million job openings for January 01:58 – Both Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports were released with CPI inflation down 0.2% from January, reporting at 2.8% for February02:56 – Comments on the recent equities market volatility after this week's 10% drop09:48 – Comments on tariffs and government spending among other foreign markets such as Europe and China; While the U.S. equities market seems to be in a down trend, other nations don't seem to share the same trend15:59 – Comments on the admirable resilience of the credit market, investment grades, and high yield bond spreads due to an abundance of liquidity 18:18 – Expectations for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting  and how recent economic data such as CPI, PPI, and PCE inflation rates and reports may affect the conversationAdditional ResourcesKey Wealth National Call Replay Key Questions: How Much Tech Do You Really Own? | Key Private Bank Key Questions | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedInKBCM Disclosure

Navigating Market Volatility and Economic Fundamentals In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the ongoing market volatility and significant drawdowns, with the Dow closing down 537 points and other major indices also experiencing declines. Despite a better-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report, market concerns have shifted to foreign policy, fiscal policy, trade, and tariffs. Brian explores whether these fluctuations could lead to a recession, noting the continuing strength in employment and resilient economic fundamentals. He also examines the impact of tariffs, particularly compared to the first Trump presidency, and advises listeners to focus on long-term goals rather than daily market movements. Closing thoughts emphasize the benefits of buying shares at lower prices during market corrections and maintaining a long-term investment perspective. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:30 Economic Indicators and Market Reactions 01:39 Interest Rates and Housing Market 02:37 Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies 04:12 Market Corrections and Investment Advice 05:33 Final Thoughts and Client Engagement Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Overview and Insights on Inflation, Interest Rates, and Mortgage Dynamics—March 12th In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel reports from West Palm Beach, Florida, detailing the latest market movements. Despite some volatility in the past weeks, March 12 sees a slight improvement with minor fluctuations in the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ. Key highlights include a new inflation read showing better-than-expected CPI numbers for February, and a discussion on why transferring mortgages at historical rates distorts free market dynamics. Szytel also touches on upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers and wraps up with an update on office activities and events. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:54 Inflation and CPI Report 02:25 Mortgage Market Insights 03:15 Free Market vs. Controlled Economies 05:16 Upcoming Events and Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In a recent discussion, Christian Briggs, founder and CEO of BMC Capital, Inc. and Hard Assets Management, shared insights on the current economic landscape. He highlighted the unexpected rise in core Producer Price Index (PPI) figures, nearly double the estimates, yet noted the markets' muted reaction compared to the previous Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Briggs emphasized the potential impact of forthcoming aggressive tariffs on aluminum and steel, essential components in manufacturing sectors from housing to aerospace. He also discussed China's strategic diversification in manufacturing and resource acquisition over the past four years, positioning itself amid global trade tensions. Additionally, Briggs touched upon the challenges posed by the U.S. national debt, the potential for financial corrections, and the role of gold as a stable asset amidst economic uncertainties. He concluded by addressing the future of digital currencies, suggesting a move towards a gold-backed digital dollar to ensure stability and credibility in the financial system.

Live at 2pm PT, we're breaking down today's market reaction to disappointing PPI data, the latest Trump tariffs, and some brutal earnings reports from Reddit and The Trade Desk. With uncertainty piling up, are the markets set for a pullback, or will they keep pushing higher? Let's dive in!

Weather and California fires continue to dominate the headlines. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) this week, Kevin explains the difference between the two and digs into the details. Oil prices react to falling U.S. crude oil inventories, the lowest in nearly 3 years; a weaker dollar; Israel and Hamas agreeing to a ceasefire and hostage release; U.S. sanctions potentially disrupting supplies; OPEC predicting increases in global demand.

Weather and California fires continue to dominate the headlines. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) this week, Kevin explains the difference between the two and digs into the details. Oil prices react to falling U.S. crude oil inventories, the lowest in nearly 3 years; a weaker dollar; Israel and Hamas agreeing to a ceasefire and hostage release; U.S. sanctions potentially disrupting supplies; OPEC predicting increases in global demand.

Market Surge: Analyzing a Strong Day in Equities and Bonds In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel reports from West Palm Beach, Florida, on January 15th. He highlights a significant uptick in the equity markets, with The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq seeing notable gains. The bond market also experienced a rally, with a drop in the 10-year yield. Szytel analyzes the factors behind these movements, including better-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers, and offers insights into the impact of these inflation indicators on market behavior. Additionally, he discusses the Empire State Manufacturing Index, the Fed's Beige Book, and the positive results from big banks' trading revenues. Szytel also addresses a viewer's question about the potential for 10-year yields to surpass 5%, emphasizing the importance of fixed income investments in portfolios amid fluctuating interest rates. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:36 Inflation and Economic Indicators 01:48 Empire State Manufacturing Index and Beige Book Insights 02:49 Q&A: Interest Rates and Treasury Yields 05:09 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Updates and Economic Insights - January 14th, 2025 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides market updates from West Palm Beach, Florida, covering the mixed yet positive performance of major stock indices. The Dow Jones rose 221 points, S&P 500 saw a slight increase, while NASDAQ declined by about a quarter of a percent. Interest rates remained flat with a notable steepening of the yield curve, indicating positive economic signals. Highlights include a lower-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) and a significantly strong NFIB Small Business Survey reading. Comparisons were drawn between current economic conditions and those of the early 1980s. Listeners are encouraged to tune in for tomorrow's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:48 Inflation and Yield Curve Insights 01:52 Small Business Sentiment 02:40 Historical Economic Comparisons 03:39 Market Recap and Closing Remarks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this week's episode, the Money Wise guys dive into Wall Street's recent performance, highlighting the Dow's 1.8% drop, the S&P 500's modest 0.6% decline, and the NASDAQ's 0.3% gain. Year-to-date, the Dow remains up 16.3%, the S&P 500 has climbed 26.9%, and the NASDAQ continues to lead with a 32.7% increase. The discussion shifts to the recent seven-day losing streak for the Dow—something not seen since 2020—and explores how technical indicators show markets moving sideways since early December. Historically, the second full week of December has shown similar flat or negative trends, even during a strong secular bull market. The guys also delve into inflation, dissecting the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports. While inflation remains relatively sticky, with both measures ticking slightly higher, they explore key factors such as rising wages, which continue to outpace inflation-adjusted earnings for many workers. Housing inflation remains a significant contributor, with mortgage rates hovering above 6.5%, and the guys explain why rates need to dip closer to 6% to see substantial relief in the real estate market. Looking ahead, the group anticipates the Federal Reserve's next move and examines the potential tone for 2025. While markets initially expected aggressive rate cuts next year, expectations have tempered, signaling caution and limited reductions as the Fed remains data-dependent. To close, the conversation touches on broader economic and political dynamics, including the potential for a “Santa Claus rally” post-Christmas and the implications of upcoming policies as the nation approaches a new president. The 'Santa Claus Rally' The Santa Claus Rally refers to the tendency for the stock market to experience a rise during the final trading days of December and the first few days of January. This seasonal phenomenon is often attributed to a combination of factors, including year-end tax strategies, holiday optimism, increased retail investor activity, and institutional investors closing their books for the year. While not guaranteed, the rally has historically been seen as a positive signal for market sentiment heading into the new year, providing investors with a boost of confidence during the holiday season. In the second hour, the Money Wise guys explore RIA vs. Broker. You don't want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

Market Overview and Utility Sector Insights – December 12th In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the latest market movements and economic indicators. Key topics include the Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers, which recorded a slight increase, leading to a minor sell-off in stocks and bonds. Szytel provides an analysis of initial jobless claims, emphasizing the importance of employment data. Additionally, he addresses the attractiveness of the utility sector, highlighting its evolving role from a defensive sector to one benefiting from rising demand and limited supply. The episode concludes with a focus on dividend growth and the potential for increased supply to meet higher demand in the utility sector. 00:00 Market Overview and PPI Numbers 01:18 Employment Data Insights 01:42 Mixed Market Reactions 01:58 Utility Sector Analysis 03:23 Future Outlook and Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Investors have their eyes on Treasury yields following Monday's losses fueled partly by a yield rally. Rates could stay in focus ahead of Treasury auctions and CPI later this week.Here is Schwab's early look at the markets for Tuesday, December 10th: Major indexes begin the day licking their wounds and watching the bond market after moderate losses Monday to start a week dominated by U.S. inflation data and central bank meetings. Stocks finished near their lows yesterday, potentially putting the market in a weak spot on the charts as Tuesday dawns.Treasury yields rose across much of the curve Monday amid worries about tomorrow's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and reaffirmation by President-elect Trump that he stands by his tariff and deportation policies, which the market see as inflationary.  Adding to pressure on bonds, which move the opposite direction of yields, was The New York Federal Reserve's November consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead climbing to 3% from 2.9% in October. That followed year-ahead inflation expectations jumping to 2.9% from 2.6% in Friday's University of Michigan's preliminary December consumer sentiment report, the highest in six months. "CPI & PPI loom large this week, and markets will be fixated on this inflation data," said Joe Mazzola, head trading and derivatives strategist at Schwab.Besides CPI, tomorrow brings a rate decision from the Bank of Canada followed by Thursday's expected rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). The CPI data and Thursday's Producer Price Index (PPI) could have a large impact on the U.S. rate outlook, but the Fed is seen almost certainly lowering rates when it gathers next week. Tech stumbled to start the week after driving last week's rally to record highs. The softness surfaced after China announced an anti-trust investigation into Nvidia (NVDA), which weighed on Nvidia and most other semiconductor stocks. Tech may find itself under more pressure today after Oracle (ORCL) disappointed late Monday with earnings that missed analysts' average estimate. Revenue came in as expected, dominated by AI-driven cloud performance, but shares fell 7% in pre-market trading. While Nvidia and semiconductors weighed on tech yesterday thanks partly to Beijing, not all the China news was bearish. China's Politburo shifted to looser monetary policy and promised more stimulus. This gave U.S.-listed Chinese stocks a boost and appeared to help U.S. gold mining and European luxury goods makers that might benefit from increased Chinese demand. Apple (AAPL), with a large presence in the Chinese market, registered a new all-time high Monday.  As of late Monday, traders saw an 86% chance rates will fall 25 basis points at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting December 17–18 and a 14% chance of no move, based on the CME FedWatch Tool. It's unlikely the Fed would want to rock the boat by pausing next week with the market primed for a cut. But the central bank might deliver a so-called "hawkish trim," meaning it could lower rates and also express caution in its updated projections and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference. Heading into Tuesday, the question is whether Wall Street sees any "buy the dip" action after Monday's washout. The worst performing S&P 500 sector yesterday was mega-cap dominated communication services, while only the defensive health care sector made any gains.The S&P 500® index (SPX) fell 37.42 points (0.61%) Monday to 6,052.85; the Dow Jones Industrial Average®($DJI) slipped 240.59 points (0.54%) to 44,401.93; and the Nasdaq Composite®($COMP) fell 123.08 points (0.62%) to 19,736.69.Important DisclosuresInformation on this site is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered individualized recommendations or personalized investment advice. The type of securities and investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review a security transaction for his or her own particular situation. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic and geo-political conditions.Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.All corporate names are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(1124-0130)

In today's episode, we're pulling back the curtain on window dressing—a phenomenon where companies make last-minute moves to polish their portfolios for investors. We'll explore how this affects financial markets and what to watch for. Plus, we'll dig into the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) data and what it signals for potential rate cuts, and take a close look at Disney's chart, which could be setting up for an exciting trade opportunity!

After a week off the Money Wise guys are back in the studio kicking things off with a recap of last week's numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1,048 points (2.6%), the S&P 500 gained 218 points (4%), and the NASDAQ surged by 993 points (6%). Year-to-date, the Dow is up 9.8%, the S&P 500 is up 18%, and the NASDAQ is up 17.8%. The guys note that this strong rally came after a period of market correction, particularly in the NASDAQ. Despite September historically being a volatile month, this past week saw a significant rebound, with the NASDAQ posting its best week of the year. The Money Wise guys discuss recent economic data, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), both of which came in line with expectations. They also highlight positive retail numbers and a dip in unemployment. Additionally, there was debate around the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut next week, with some market professionals suggesting a 0.5% cut instead of the anticipated 0.25%. The Money Wise guys generally agree that a 0.25% cut would be more prudent, given that inflation is cooling and the economy is still showing signs of strength. They also point out that the S&P 500 is nearing a crucial technical level and needs to break through and close above 5,670 to maintain its upward momentum. Federal Reserve's Upcoming Interet Rate Cut The Federal Reserve is expected to implement its first interest rate cut in a significant period, with speculation around whether the reduction will be 0.25% or a more aggressive 0.5%. Most analysts and market professionals are anticipating a 0.25% cut, as recent economic data, including positive retail numbers and cooling inflation, suggest the economy remains relatively stable. A 0.25% cut is seen as a cautious and measured approach, aimed at supporting continued growth without overstimulating the market. However, some market professionals have argued for a 0.5% cut, believing a larger reduction would more effectively boost economic activity. The Money Wise guys express concerns that a larger cut could signal too much concern about the economy and might trigger an adverse reaction from the market. In the second hour today, the Money Wise guys discuss 401(k) Rollovers. You don't want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

Market Gains and Disinflationary Signs on Dividend Cafe In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the positive movements in the markets on September 12th, with the Dow gaining 235 points, the S&P rising for the fourth straight day, and minor gains in the NASDAQ and 10-year Treasury note. The focus is on the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) data showing a disinflationary trend with a year-over-year number under 2%, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's shift from inflation to employment and economic growth concerns. Revised July PPI figures indicate deflation. Initial jobless claims align with expectations, supporting the 'soft landing' economic narrative. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:37 Inflation Data Insights 01:23 Federal Reserve and Bond Market Dynamics 02:24 Revised PPI Numbers and Jobless Claims 03:05 Conclusion and Sign-Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

September 11 Market Update and Inflation Insights In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel begins with a somber remembrance of the September 11 terrorist attacks, offering thoughts and prayers to those affected. He proceeds with market commentary, noting an initial drop and subsequent recovery, likely influenced by the recent debate between former President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Szytel discusses key inflation data, highlighting that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers are in line with Federal Reserve targets. He also touches on the implications for upcoming interest rate decisions and the balance sheet. Finally, Seitel provides a preview of forthcoming economic data, including initial jobless claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI). 00:00 Introduction and Remembrance of 9/11 00:33 Market Opening and Debate Impact 01:05 Market Performance and Analysis 01:51 Inflation Data and Federal Reserve Expectations 03:34 Upcoming Economic Indicators and Closing Remarks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

As they kick off every week of Money Wise, the guys begin this week's episode with a recap of a strong week for the markets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 1,162 points (2.9%), the S&P 500 rising by 210 points (3.9%), and the NASDAQ up 886 points (5.3%). Year-to-date, the Dow is up 7.9%, the S&P 500 is up 16.4%, and the NASDAQ is up 17.5%. The Money Wise guys discuss how the market has made a complete recovery from the downturn that started in early August, with market sentiment quickly shifting from fear of a hard landing to optimism about a soft landing for the economy. The volatility index (VIX), which measures fear in the market, had spiked dramatically but has since calmed down as economic data improved. The conversation continues on to highlight several key turning points, including better-than-expected initial jobless claims and positive inflation data, particularly with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing the lowest year-over-year inflation in three years. The hosts believe that this improvement in economic indicators, along with more favorable Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers, helps alleviate fears of a recession or hard landing. The Money Wise guys also discuss how the Federal Reserve is now expected to implement a more modest interest rate cut, possibly 0.25%, rather than the more drastic cuts previously speculated. Overall, they comment that the market's response to the improved data has been positive, driving the strong performance seen throughout the past week. The Volatility Index The Volatility Index, commonly referred to as the VIX, is a key measure of market sentiment that tracks expected market volatility over the next 30 days. Often called the "fear gauge," it rises when investors anticipate higher risk or uncertainty and falls when confidence in the market is stronger. Right now, the VIX is particularly pertinent because recent spikes reflected heightened fear of a potential economic downturn or market correction. However, as economic data has improved, such as better-than-expected jobless claims and easing inflation, the VIX has calmed down, signaling a more optimistic outlook among investors. This reduction in fear has contributed to the recent market rebound. In the second hour today, the Money Wise guys discuss Equity Index Annuities. You don't want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

A consumer selects tomatoes at a supermarket in Linyi city, East China's Shandong province on June 12.6月12日，一名消费者在山东临沂的一家超市挑选西红柿。China's consumer prices increased modestly in June while factory-gate prices saw a slowdown in annual declines, official data showed on Wednesday.7月10日的官方数据显示，中国6月份居民消费价格指数（CPI）小幅上涨，而工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）的年度跌幅有所放缓。The country's consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, rose by 0.2 percent year-on-year in June after a 0.3 percent rise in May, the National Bureau of Statistics said.国家统计局表示，衡量通货膨胀的主要指标——CPI继5月份上涨0.3%之后，6月份同比上涨0.2%。Within the CPI, food prices dropped 2.1 percent year-on-year in June versus a 2 percent annual contraction in May. Notably, the price of fresh vegetables declined 7.3 percent in June, following a 2.3 percent rise in May. Pork, a staple in Chinese cuisine, saw prices go up by 18.1 percent in June after a 4.6 percent growth in May. 6月份食品价格同比下降2.1%，而5月份同比降低2%；继5月份上涨2.3%之后，6月份新鲜蔬菜价格下降了7.3%。猪肉作为家庭主菜，在5月份增长4.6%之后，其6月份价格上涨了18.1%。Meanwhile, non-food prices posted a 0.8 percent rise compared with a year earlier in June, flat with the rise in May. The growth in energy narrowed from 3.4 percent in May to 3.1 percent in June. Prices of gas-powered cars and new energy vehicles declined 6 percent and 7.4 percent, respectively.6月份，非食品价格同比上涨0.8%，涨幅与上月相同。非食品中，能源价格上涨3.1%，涨幅回落0.3个百分点；扣除能源的PPI上涨0.1%，涨幅与上月相同，其中燃油小汽车和新能源小汽车价格分别下降6.0%和7.4%。On a month-on-month basis, the CPI dropped 0.2 percent in June versus a 0.1 percent decline in May. 按月来看，6月份CPI下降0.2%，而5月份下降0.1%。The growth in core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is deemed a better gauge of the supply-demand relationship in the economy, rose by 0.6 percent year-on-year in June, unchanged from the growth in May.扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅与上月相同，继续保持温和上涨。Dong Lijuan, an NBS statistician, attributed the year-on-year CPI growth to a well-stocked market, while the PPI declined due to factors including the international commodity price fluctuations and insufficient demand for some industrial products in the domestic market. 国家统计局统计师董莉娟表示，CPI同比增长是由于市场储备充足，而PPI下降则受国际大宗商品价格波动和国内市场部分工业产品需求不足等因素影响。China's producer price index, which gauges factory-gate prices, dropped by 0.8 percent from a year ago in June, narrowing from a 1.4 percent fall in May, the NBS said. 国家统计局表示，全国PPI在6月份同比下降0.8%，较5月份1.4%的降幅有所收窄。On a month-on-month basis, the PPI dropped 0.2 percent in June after a 0.2 percent rise in May, according to the NBS.环比由上月上涨0.2%转为下降0.2%。ConsumerPriceIndex (CPI)n.居民消费价格指数Producer Price Index(PPI)n.工业生产者出厂价格指数

May CPI I would say I was very optimistic after the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released. Headline CPI increased 3.3% compared to last year, which was below the estimate and last month's reading which both stood at 3.4%. Core CPI which excludes food and energy was up 3.4%, which was below the estimate of 3.5% and last month's reading of 3.6%. This also marked the lowest reading since April 2021 when inflation concerns really began and the core CPI was at 3.0%. In March 2021 core CPI was at 1.6%. The shelter index continues to be the heavyweight moving core CPI as it was up 5.4% over last year and accounted for over two thirds of the annual increase. Many areas of the report have come back down to more normal inflation rates with areas like food at home increasing just 1% compared to last year. Food away from home was a little more challenged as that was up 4% compared to last year. I believe much of this can be attributed to the continued demand for bars and restaurants and the increased wage pressures. Although energy saw a 2% decline compared to the previous month, it was 3.7% higher than last year. This stems from the major fall in energy prices last year that I believe will make for difficult comparisons over the next few months. Two major areas that have remained problematic include admission to sporting events, which saw an increase of 21.7% compared to last year and motor vehicle insurance, which saw an increase of 20.3% compared to last year. It was positive to see a monthly decline in motor vehicle insurance of 0.1%. I believe this category will not be a problem in 2025 as much of the rate increases have now taken place. Overall, I believe this report should be supportive of a rate cut, but we will need to see more reports like this with further progress in the coming months for a cut to actually occur.  May PPI After a positive Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Producer Price Index (PPI) delivered more welcome news on the inflation front. May headline PPI rose 2.2% compared to last year and when comparing against the month of April there was a decline of 0.2%. Estimates were looking for a 2.5% increase in the annual number and a 0.1% increase in the monthly figure. When looking at core PPI, which excludes food and energy, the report showed and increase of just 2.3% on annual basis which was below the expectation for a 2.5% increase. These numbers are right around the Fed's 2% target and should be a positive indicator for CPI and PCE as we continue to move forward.  Private Investment Deals Investors be aware that your local broker could start hitting you up for private investment deals to fund apartment complexes somewhere around the country. The problem is the banks are starting to clamp down on just loaning money for projects on apartments that may be losers. In 2023 almost 500,000 new apartments were opened which is the most since the 80s. That growth is expected to continue and it's estimated to be around the same number in 2024. We have said before this will help bring down housing costs probably by 2025 as there are so many apartments on the market that the owners will give so many free incentives and reduce the rents just to get people in and provide the owners some cash flow. This will affect the housing market along with the CPI since shelter costs are a big part of that index and lower rents would help reduce the inflation numbers.  Apple Stock I was surprised to see Apple move more than 7% higher a day after the developer conference on Monday and close at a record high. There was a lot of hype leading up to the event as the company was anticipated to detail more about its AI strategy. I'm not sure if I saw the same conference, but I was not overly impressed by the details. Apple launched Apple Intelligence which can proofread your writing, or even rewrite it in a friendly or professional tone. It can create custom emojis called “genmoji,” search through your iPhone for specific messages from someone, summarize and transcribe phone calls or show you priority notifications. It can even tap into OpenAI's ChatGPT to provide you more detailed answers from Siri. ChatGPT is also built into systemwide writing tools. So, for example, Apple said you can create a bedtime story for a child and add images created by ChatGPT. Since the updates will only take place on the iPhone 15 Pro, Pro Max, and newly built phones, the hope is there will be a major upgrade cycle. Personally, I just don't see how these updates will get many people to move and buy a phone that will cost at least $1,000. I know new emojis is definitely not enough for me to upgrade. I also do worry about how this will impact the relationship with Google. Alphabet currently pays Apple around $20 B per year to be the default search engine on Apple devices. If more people begin to use the AI function and do less search, why would Alphabet continue to pay such a hefty fee? For a stock trading at close to 30x this year's projected earnings, there is now a lot riding on this next iPhone cycle.  What should you do with your Annuity? It is very rare that I come across someone who fully understands their annuity. Annuities can be either qualified or non-qualified and their status will determine how they are taxed. A qualified annuity means it was purchased with retirement funds while a non-qualified annuity was purchased with non-retirement funds. Generally qualified annuities are more flexible because they can be surrendered and rolled into another IRA without tax. However, if non-qualified annuities are surrendered, the entire gain becomes taxable at ordinary income rates. Because of this sometimes (but not always) it can make more sense to annuitize non-qualified annuities which is the process of converting the funds into a pension-like stream of income. This is still taxable, but the gain is spread out over time rather than realized in one year. I recently spoke with someone who is close to 80 years old and owns a non-qualified annuity. It turns out their annuity has two annuitization options. They can either withdraw 5% of the account value for the rest of their life, or they can withdraw 7% of the account value until the account value has been reached, but would also stop upon death. The issue here is in both of these cases, there is a decent chance they will not live long enough to get all their money back, let alone any growth. Another option would be to surrender the annuity to guarantee they receive all their funds back, but then they would pay a decent chunk of it in taxes. This is one example of many that illustrate if you have an annuity, make sure you also know when and how to use it because waiting will limit your options.   Stocks Discussed: Docusign (DOCU), Ferrari (RACE) and Southwest (LUV)

PPI Initially the Producer Price Index (PPI) looked problematic as it increased 0.5%, which easily topped the estimate of 0.3%. Looking further into the report though, the March reading was revised from an initially reported 0.2% gain to a decline of 0.1%, which more than accounted for this month's beat. Looking on a year-over-year basis, PPI rose 2.2% and core PPI was 2.4%. While the core PPI increase was the biggest annual move since August 2023, I still don't believe it's at a problematic level considering the Fed's 2% target.  CPI The Consumer Price Index (CPI) brought some positive news as the index grew 3.4% in April which was in line with expectations and better than the previous month's reading of 3.5%. Core CPI which excludes food and energy was up 3.6% and was below last month's reading of 3.8%. This was the lowest reading for core CPI since April 2021. Shelter continues to be the major weight keeping prices elevated as it was up 5.5% over last year and accounted for over two thirds of the growth in core CPI. Energy which was a major positive for the CPI numbers for much of last year has now brought some pressure to the headline CPI number as it was up 2.6% compared to last year. The easy comparisons from last year have disappeared and now I believe we will continue to see year over year gains in the energy component moving forward. Other areas that remained problematic included motor vehicle insurance (+22.6%), admission to sporting events (+15.4%), and motor vehicle repair (+9.8%). While there are some remaining negatives in the inflation fight, overall, I believe this report shows we are continuing to head in the right direction. Private Credit I have seen investors become more interested in the private credit space, but personally I have not invested any money in it, nor would I recommend my clients do so. Private credit is where nonbank financial institutions, like private-equity firms, make loans to businesses. It was essentially created to serve companies that were too big or risky for banks or too small for the bond market. The funds are generally illiquid, which means you could be stuck in an investment and if it goes south, you may have no other choice than to ride it out and hope it comes back. Also, since they rarely trade you don't really know what the loans are worth and have to rely on pricing from quarterly accounting estimates. The fees are quite high as they are in the range of 1.25%, which I would consider high for essentially a fixed income alternative. Unknown risks could also be developing in the space due to less regulations and limited oversight. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently released a report that stated with the recent increase in yields, more than a third of borrowers have interest costs that exceed their earnings. Pull all the info together and I'm comfortable not being in this investment.  Meme Stocks Meme stocks are back in the news with companies like GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC) surging! AMC was actually quite smart and took advantage of the move to do a $250 million stock sale to raise capital. Like I said back in 2021, these moves are occurring for no fundamental reason. The fact that these are occurring because a guy that goes by the name “Roaring Kitty” posted an image of a man in chair leaning forward is just crazy. If you want to gamble on this stock just know that's all it is, there is no fundamental reason for the company's stock to be trading at these levels. It's also important to remember that last time the hype occurred the stock reached an intra-day split adjusted high of $120.75 per share and has been in free fall before this recent move as it touched a three year low of $9.95 per share. I believe the story will end the same way for many of these traders and for those that think they are sticking it to Wall Street, unfortunately it will not have as big of an impact as they think.  Financial Planning: Best Withdrawal Rate for Retirement  The 4% rule has been around for decades and states if retirees withdraw 4% from their portfolio every year, and increase the annual withdrawals by the rate of inflation, they are very unlikely to run out of money. This rule of thumb has been widely used but it is important to understand it has some pitfalls. First off, a 4% withdrawal rate is overly conservative in almost all cases. To be able to withdraw 4% plus inflation over a retirement lasting 30 years, the asset return needs to outpace inflation by just 1%. A 1% real return is extremely low. This is partly caused by the misconception that retirees need to have an overly conservative portfolio. Regardless of age, retirees still should allocate their assets to grow and outpace inflation. That doesn't mean they need to buy risky or trendy investments, but there should always be growth. Retirees are living longer and longer which means traditional “conservative” portfolios are actually riskier because they increase the chance of outliving money. Secondly, retirement spending typically doesn't maintain pace with inflation. In the first few years of retirement, people are more active and spending more, but as they age, they tend to slow down which results in lower levels of spending. This means it can be appropriate to start with a larger withdrawal rate followed by smaller inflationary increases over time. Because of this, a 5% or even 6% withdrawal rate can be used in retirement when paired with wise investment management. A withdrawal rate of 6% may not seem like much more than 4%, but mathematically it is 50% more which means substantially more retirement income, or being able to retire several years sooner.     Stocks Discussed: Netflix (NFLX), Wayfair (W) and CVS Health (CVS)

In this week's episode, the Money Wise guys provide a positive update on the recent performance of major stock indices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 491 points or 1.2%, the S&P 500 increasing by 81 points or 1.5%, and the NASDAQ rising by 345 points or 2.1%. Year-to-date figures show substantial gains, with both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ up by 11.2%. They also delve into recent economic reports that have influenced market sentiment, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). The CPI for the month was reported to increase by 0.3%, which was below the expected 0.4%, signaling a slight cooling of inflation, a positive signal for the markets. This was further supported by a downward revision in the previous month's PPI, which also had a calming effect on the market's inflation concerns. These developments contributed to all three major indices reaching all-time highs during the week, with the Dow closing above 40,000 for the first time on Friday. Looking ahead, the Money Wise guys discuss the potential impact of upcoming earnings from major tech companies like Nvidia, emphasizing the importance of their financial results in sustaining market momentum. They noted that continued positive earnings, particularly from leading tech firms, could further bolster investor confidence and drive market performance as the year progresses. The Cooling of Inflation The cooling of inflation, as indicated by recent lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, is generally positive for the markets for several reasons. Firstly, it alleviates concerns about the rising cost of living and the potential for eroded consumer purchasing power, which can stifle economic growth. Lower inflation also reduces the pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates, which is favorable for investment prices as higher interest rates typically lead to lower stock valuations. Furthermore, with less inflationary pressure, businesses face lower input costs, potentially leading to improved profit margins. Overall, a cooling of inflation fosters a more stable financial environment, encouraging investment and contributing to the overall health of the stock market. In the second hour today, the Money Wise guys share their ‘Are You Ready for Retirement' quiz. You don't want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

In this week's episode, we unpack the market movers: a hot Producer Price Index (PPI) and a Consumer Price Index (CPI) that came in cooler than expected. We also dive into the latest REIT earnings and the ongoing debate surrounding NYC rent stabilization. Plus, the team break down two major office loans that transferred to special servicing, along with the latest news across property types. Tune in now. Episode Notes: - Economic update: PPI and CPI (0:48) - Retail sales flat in April (7:02) - REIT earnings (9:51) - Office headlines (16:12) - Rent stabilization and community housing (32:36) - Multifamily sales (40:35) - Oklahoma hotel portfolio transfers to special servicing (43:46) - Industrial stories (48) - Shoutouts (50;24) Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com. Follow Trepp: Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

The Commander-in-Chief, Joe Biden, insisted in a recent discussion that his economic approach has had a positive impact, despite the substantial 25–30% increase in costs for fundamental consumer items since he assumed the presidency. 'To mince his words, Biden asserted, 'We need to maintain our resolve, remain unwavering, and persistently churn out these remarkable jobs. Of note is that the remuneration attached to these roles outstrip the rate of inflation. We have this under control, it just requires a bit more patience. Our focus is undeterred,' claimed Biden. Biden's economic strategy as a whole has been dubbed 'Bidenomics.' However, according to various surveys, a significant number of Americans rate their personal financial situation as a top worry as we approach the 2024 election season. 'In April, we did see a slight easing off of inflation, but the still significant price rises unveiled this week continue to add to a total that could be Biden's most intractable economic hurdle in the 2024 campaign. According to figures from the adjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI), prices have now escalated by over 19.4% in the past three years or so during Biden's tenure,' was a revelation made by Yahoo! Finance on Wednesday. Just to give some perspective, during President Trump's four-year term, the rise in prices was barely below 7.8%. The editorial board of the New York Post also offered their thoughts, opining that Biden is leading the nation astray regarding the economic situation: On a positive note: The latest CPI figures show a minor moderation in inflation. But the caveat: all the other metrics indicate we could be facing more, not less, difficulty in the future. CPI figures for April came in 3.4% higher than the previous year, a slight decrease from March's 3.5% surge. However, we still find ourselves well above the desired figures of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. In addition to this, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April witnessed a 0.5% increase, outpacing the 0.3% projection by economists - the PPI generally gives an indication of where the CPI is headed, as manufacturers inevitably pass on elevated costs to their consumers.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Market Update: A Positive Turn with Cooler Inflation Numbers This episode of Dividend Cafe provides a financial market update for Wednesday, May 15th, marking a positive trading day with the Dow up by 349 points and a rally in bonds. The episode highlights a cooler than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April at 0.3%, indicating a positive trend in inflation rates. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed mixed signals with March's deflationary revision and a hotter April. These figures suggest a potential 2.8% year-over-year Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which is crucial for Federal Reserve considerations. Despite lower than expected retail sales and a contractionary Empire Manufacturing Survey, the episode suggests these are potentially positive signs for the Fed to lower interest rates. 00:19 Inflation and Economic Indicators Update 01:17 Retail Sales and Manufacturing Insights 01:54 Closing Thoughts and Tomorrow's Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Financial expert David Stryzewski analyzes the alarming trends revealed in April's Producer Price Index (PPI) report. The PPI has risen by 0.5%, signaling persistent and escalating inflationary pressures, a sharp contrast to the previous month's 0.1% decline. This marks the first instance since April 2022 that PPI inflation has risen for three consecutive months, showcasing a trend of sticky inflation. David explains that the year-over-year rise in wholesale costs, which accelerated to 2.2%, points to a future where inflation could significantly overshoot the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The big picture suggests a troubling scenario: inflation is stubbornly high, and the Federal Reserve appears to be losing its battle against it. David warns of the Federal Reserve's potential move to cut rates to prevent a banking crisis, amidst conditions where "higher for longer" interest rate policies seem increasingly likely. The discussion also covers the broader impacts of these economic policies, including the significant strain on real estate and small community banks, which are vital for financing small businesses. David highlights the serious implications of rising interest rates on sectors heavily dependent on lending and the potential for recurring bank failures, as indicated by billionaire investor Barry Sternlicht. Tune in to understand the complexities of the current economic environment, where stagflation is not just a possibility but a growing reality, and explore the difficult choices facing policymakers in this critical juncture. Find David here: FedBubble.com Find Kerry here: FSN and here: inflation.cafe

The production of a Producer Price Index (PPI) for the manufacturing and construction sectors in Saint Lucia will soon be an added data set of the Central Statistical Office. PPI is an important economic indicator used to track inflationary pressures in the economy. It also measures the average changes over time in the prices paid by domestic producers for the purchase of inputs used in the production process. 

In the News – There is never a shortage of financially related news items to discuss. In this episode, Chris Boyd and Jeff Perry begin the conversation with the recent Solar Eclipse and the economic impact of such an event. Chris and Jeff next review economic data reports from the week, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) and what each report tells us about inflation trends. To wrap up this segment, Jeff brings up a story that Costco has been selling up to $200M a month in gold bars. Chris discusses why people buy gold related assets. The segment ends with common sense advice to investors in such assets. For more information or to reach Chris Boyd or Jeff Perry, click the below link: https://www.wealthenhancement.com/s/advisor-teams/amr

Watch the replay of last night's special event, “The AI Story No One's Telling,” at www.curzioai.com. I start today's show by eating some humble pie over my NCAA Final Four picks. I share my thoughts on the tournament so far… and which games I'm most looking forward to in the coming weeks.  We saw an incredible turnout for our special event last night, “The AI Story No One's Telling.” Our live Q&A lasted almost two hours—covering everything from the current state of AI… to where we're headed with artificial general intelligence (AGI). Thank you to everyone who attended. But if you missed it, don't worry—you can watch the replay at www.curzioai.com. Trust me, it's worth your time. Tomorrow, FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried will be sentenced for illegally leveraging customers' assets, which caused the collapse of the company. He faces up to 100 years. I share the irony behind this debacle… why I think SBF will get slapped with a major sentence… and why he'll likely walk free within the next few years. The tragic collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore shines a light on the critical role of our country's infrastructure. I break down the bridge's importance to U.S. trade… and the massive ripple effect its collapse will send throughout the economy. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers show inflation at its highest level since October. I highlight why the Fed might have no choice but to hike rates again this year. In this episode  A slice of humble pie with my NCAA bracket [1:21] Don't miss “The AI Story No One's Telling”—Go to www.curzioai.com [7:51] How long will SBF be in prison? [23:24] The tragedy in Baltimore will wreak havoc on the economy [32:05] Will we see more rate hikes this year? [43:20]   Enjoyed this episode? Get Wall Street Unplugged delivered FREE to your inbox each week: www.curzioresearch.com/wall-street-unplugged/ Wall Street Unplugged podcast is available at: --iTunes: itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/wall-street-unplugged-frank/ --Stitcher: www.stitcher.com/podcast/curzio-research/wall-street-unplugged-2 --Website: www.curzioresearch.com/category/podcast/wall-street-unplugged/   Twitter: twitter.com/frankcurzio Facebook: www.facebook.com/CurzioResearch/ Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/in/frank-curzio-690561a7/ Website: www.curzioresearch.com/category/podcast/wall-street-unplugged/ Curzio Research App: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/curzio-research/id6466212450

AI Outlook So Far Microsoft spent about $7 million per 30 second ad for the Super Bowl promoting their Copilot AI service. Some results are not coming in so good for Copilot with some testers after using the software for more than six months said it was useful but doesn't live up to its price. Another survey adopter said the initial excitement wears off with a 20% drop in use after only a month. Executives at Microsoft expected billions of dollars in new revenue as their search engine Bing would take market share from Google. Unfortunately, nearly a year later Bing has only seen less than a one percent gain in market share. A survey from Boston consulting group said that roughly 90% of business executives said generative AI is a priority for the company this year; however, 66% said it would take a couple years for the technology to move beyond the hype. 70% of those executives said they were only going to do small investments with limited testing. I've been concerned about the over hype of the money going into AI and the return on investment taking years to payoff. This would not be the first time on Wall Street that the hype sent stocks into orbit, only to come back down to earth when reality set in. Investing in Technology More strange news with the markets. As of the week ending February 9th, the NASDAQ was up 6.5% this year and the S&P 500, which is also heavily weighted in tech companies had increased 5.4% in 2024. This compares to a return of just 0.84% for the broader Russell 2000 index. The S&P 500 has increased 14 of the last 15 weeks something we have not seen since the end of 1972. I'm not saying the market is going to crash tomorrow, but the 73/74 market period had a very long bear market. The difference here is that our market is so concentrated in technology that I think we could see a bear market, but many companies will still gain going forward because of the great value that has been ignored. Another example of exuberance in technology would be that fact that since the 2008 financial crisis, US companies with dividends above 5% gave investors a return of 450%. Over that same timeframe, companies that don't pay a dividend have returned nearly 1200%. Going back to the 1870s, this flies in the face of normal behavior. The excitement in tech has led to some major gains for the big tech companies and Microsoft is now the most valuable company with a market cap around $3.1 trillion. It is almost twice the $1.6 trillion value of the entire S&P 500 energy sector, yet it's annual free cash flow of around $67 billion is less than half the $135 billion from these energy companies. I do not know what will cause a drop or when it will happen, I just believe many investors do not realize the risk that they are taking by investing heavily into technology. Unfortunately, all parties do come to an end. CPI The Consumer Price Index (CPI) caused a lot of concern and sent stocks lower as the reading came in above expectations. Frankly, looking through the data I don't think the numbers were that bad. CPI rose 3.1% compared to last year which was above expectations of 2.9%, but was lower than the reading of 3.4% in December. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy rose 3.9% and came in above the expectation of 3.7%. This reading matched December's 3.9% rise which was the smallest increase since May 2021. It is important to remember that numbers don't always go in a straight line and I believe this report should not have a major impact on the Fed's rate decisions. Especially, when looking deeper at the numbers. The shelter index again continued to be a heavyweight on the report as it climbed 6% compared to last year. This increase accounted for over two thirds of the 12-month increase in core CPI. It was also interesting that there was a little bit of a divergence between the rent of a primary residence which was up 0.4% in the month compared to the owners' equivalent rent of residences which was up 0.6% in the month. I believe this is a silly metric that distorts the CPI level. The Owners' equivalent rent is obtained through surveys and asks members of a household: “If someone were to rent your home today, how much do you think it would rent for monthly, unfurnished, and without utilities?" I don't believe this is a great way for tracking shelter inflation and that these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. Other areas of the report continued to see positive deceleration or even deflation in some cases. The energy index was down 4.6% compared to last year with gasoline falling 6.4%. Food at home showed a gain of just 1.2%, which compares to a peak of 13.5% in August 2022. Food away from home did have a larger increase of 5.1%, which likely stems from higher wages and the elevated demand we are seeing at restaurants and bars. Overall, as I said I don't think this was a bad report, but investors need to realize that the Fed will not be cutting rates 6 times this year. PPI I was somewhat disappointed by the Producer Price Index (PPI), as I thought we would see better numbers. In January, PPI rose 0.3% compared to the prior month, which was the biggest move since August and it was well above the expected increase of 0.1%. Core PPI was even more troubling considering it saw a 0.5% increase, which easily topped the expectation for an increase of just 0.1%. Looking at the year over year increase, the numbers are less concerning. Headline PPI increased just 0.9%, but core PPI did see an increase of 2.6%. I wouldn't recommend panicking over one report, but I will definitely be keeping an eye on inflation over the next few months. I still believe the broader trend will show a decline towards the 2% target, but there will likely be bumps in the road. Financial Planning: Health Insurance Before Medicare Most become eligible for Medicare at age 65. With Medicare you will have a Part B premium, which is $174.70 per month in 2024, and potentially an additional premium of up to $200 per month depending if you select a Medicare Advantage Plan or a Medicare Supplement Plan. If you retire before age 65, health insurance can be much more expensive and range into the thousands of dollars per month. For many this is a major factor in why they delay retirement. However, with the correct planning ahead of time, it is possible to retire early without being subject to exorbitant insurance premiums. When purchasing health insurance through the Health Insurance Marketplace, the actual premium is based on your income. This means if you can keep your income lower, you will qualify for the same coverage, but at a lower monthly cost. Some ways to keep income low is to keep extra cash, taxable brokerage accounts, and Roth accounts available as withdrawals from these accounts are not considered income. Therefore, these types of assets can cover livings expenses until reaching Medicare at age 65 while also keeping health insurance premiums, federal taxes, and state taxes at a minimum. This also means it may be necessary to defer other types of income such as Social Security, pensions, capital gains, pre-tax retirement account withdrawals, and Roth conversions until reaching age 65. There are many insurance plans available all with their own premium based on income, so it is important to choose the right plan to cover your individual medical needs, but with the right planning, there are affordable options available for early retirement.

Here's what is happening in the markets today, Friday, February 16 - S&P 500 hits a new record high - Week's performance: S&P 500 nearly flat, Dow up 0.3%, Nasdaq down 0.53%. - Today's major report: Producer Price Index (PPI) - Hotter-than-expected CPI data and retail sales decline noted. - UBS forecasts S&P 500 to end the year around current levels. - Coinbase (COIN) shares rally after reporting a surprise profit. PLUS: How we trade these markets and our current positions This wraps up today's stock market news. If you enjoyed the "Stock Market Today" episode, make sure to subscribe to this podcast.  And for more stock market news,  visit our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/rockwelltrading2008 #todaysstockmarket #stockmarkettoday #stockmarket

In the past week, stocks saw a modest increase due to lower bond yields driven by tame inflation reports, boosting investor confidence in potential Fed interest rate cuts. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.1% in December, primarily driven by reduced costs for goods like diesel fuel and food. While the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 0.3% monthly increase, concerns arise about potential overstatement, especially in the "owners' equivalent rent" component. Despite a tepid start to earnings season, major banks reported mixed results, with trends indicating rising credit card delinquencies and commercial real estate losses. Geopolitical tensions and a more hawkish tone from central bankers are dampening investor enthusiasm at the beginning of the week, with attention turning to the Energy sector amid Middle East unrest. The economic calendar for the upcoming week includes retail sales and consumer sentiment reports, supporting a slow and steady narrative. The information provided in this commentary is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, product, or brokerage service. The information is not intended to be used as the basis for investment decisions, nor should the information be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of any investor. This commentary is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that North Star Investment Management Corporation and/or its affiliates ("North Star") may have bought for client accounts and the diversity of markets in which North Star Investments may invest, and may not be representative of current or future investments. You should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this commentary will be profitable or will be equal to any corresponding performance levels that might be indicated. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments in securities involve risks including the possible loss of the principal invested. North Star and others associated with it, including employees, may have positions in and effect transactions in securities of companies mentioned or indirectly referenced in this commentary. North Star may buy, sell or hold these securities in proprietary or client accounts. North Star will not be providing regular updates or advising you of any changes in the views expressed herein. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation and needs before investing in any security. Tax considerations, commissions, fees and other costs should be carefully evaluated with one's investment and/or tax advisors. Information provided is obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, but North Star cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or transmitted to any other person in whole or in part without the prior written consent of North Star. A copy of North Star Investment Management Corporation's Form ADV Brochure, Privacy Notice and Business Continuity Plan summary can be obtained by calling 312-580-0900.

Inflation Numbers While the headline inflation numbers were above estimates, I wouldn't say there were really any surprises in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Headline CPI rose 3.4% vs the estimate of 3.2% and core CPI rose 3.9% vs the estimate of 3.8%. Although it was slightly higher than anticipated, progress is still being made on the inflation fight and core CPI registered its lowest reading since May 2021. As it has been the case for many months, the shelter index was the major contributor as the annual increase of 6.2% accounted for about two-thirds of the rise in inflation. Other areas that remained problematic included motor vehicle insurance (+20.3%), admission to sporting events (+14.9%), and motor vehicle repair (+10.3%). One area I found interesting was food, the entire index increased just 2.7% from last year but the divide between at home and away from home has widened substantially. The at home index showed an increase of just 1.3% compared to the away from home index which grew 5.2%. I believe this divide will remain due to the demand for dining out and the wage pressure restaurants and bars are facing. Overall, I don't think this report moves the needle one way or another for the Fed and I believe rate cuts will start in the back half of the year. PPI More good news on the inflation front, as the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed an increase of just 1.0% compared to last year. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was up just 2.5% compared to last year. This points to more good news ahead on the inflation front as the PPI is normally a leading indicator. REITs With what I believe was the last rate hike of the cycle in the books, one area to evaluate is real estate. I'm not talking about single family homes or private investments, but rather looking at public Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). These trade on the stock exchange, but instead of owning a business you will own the real estate that is bought within the trust. I believe there are many great values in the public real estate market at this time when analyzing the cash flows that an investor receives and historically REITs have outperformed the S&P 500 index by approximately 4.5 percentage points in the 12 months following the last interest-rate hike in a cycle. Looking at the last three hiking cycles, REITs have had an average total return of 19% in the 12 months following the last hike in a cycle. I believe the right real estate in the portfolio is a great area to look for value as we look down the road 2-3 years, not to mention many of these REITs have great dividend yields. Bitcoin ETF The hype for the bitcoin ETF is at all-time highs, as the SEC has now approved them for investments. We still don't understand why people would want to buy an ETF that holds just one product like bitcoin. But for those who do, the fees are out and Fidelity has disclosed they will charge .39% annually for holding bitcoin. Their ETF competitors Invesco and crypto firm galaxy will charge 0.59% for holding bitcoin. I'm sure you've heard of the Grayscale bitcoin trust which charged an annual fee of 2% on the assets, they have now reduced that fee to 1.5% since it is now an ETF. I still believe this is hype, where the rumor will be far better than the news. I would not be surprised that for 2024 bitcoin is currently trading around its highs for the year.   Financial Planning: Social Security Spousal Benefits Social Security spousal benefits come into play when one spouse has little to no earnings history. In this case their own social security benefits would be low, so they can claim a spousal benefit from the spouse that did work. There's a common misconception that it's ½ of the higher earning spouse's amount, but the actual calculation is ½ of the working spouse's full retirement age amount and the non-working spouse would need to apply at their own full retirement age. The working spouse may apply at any point between age 62 and 70 and the spousal benefit is still ½ of their age 67 amount. The non-working spouse may collect as early as age 62, but they will receive a reduced benefit for every month they collect before age 67. Upon reaching age 67, they do not receive a larger benefit by waiting any longer. The only other caveat is the working spouse must be collecting social security for the non-working spouse to collect a spousal benefit. In situations where the higher earning spouse is not collecting social security because they are still working or they are waiting until age 70, this prevents the non-working spouse from collecting. If the non-working spouse has reached age 67, benefits are being permanently lost. This is compounded by the fact that the spousal benefits will only last until the death of either spouse because only the higher social security benefit is retained by a surviving spouse. This is one of several instances where it is better to collect Social Security sooner rather than later.  

PPI More great news on the inflation front as the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.5% in the month of October, which was well below expectations for a 0.1% increase. This also marked the largest monthly decline since April 2020. Compared to last year, the index showed an increase of just 1.3% which was a nice decline from September's reading of 2.2%. Even looking at the core PPI, which excludes food and energy there was a positive news. It was flat compared to September which was below the expectation for a 0.3%. The reduced inflation problems for producers should continue to benefit consumer prices in the months ahead. CPI Report There were some major positives in the CPI report which sent interest rates tumbling. In fact, the 10-year treasury fell to below 4.5%. What was so positive about the CPI? The headline number showed just a 3.2% increase in inflation compared to last year and the core CPI showed a gain of just 4.0% which was below the expectation for a 4.1% increase. This was also the lowest reading for core CPI since September 2021 and it is well below the peak of 6.6% that was hit last September. Areas where inflation still remains hot include admission to sporting events (+25.1%), motor vehicle repair (+15.1%), and motor vehicle insurance (+19.2%). Another area that continues to push inflation higher is shelter which increased 6.7% compared to last year. I continue to believe this index does a poor job reflecting the current state of shelter costs, yet it accounted for more than 70% of the increase in core CPI. As the shelter index normalizes, I believe we can quickly see a push towards the Fed's target of 2%. While I don't believe we will get there next year, I do believe we will see core inflation fall below 3%. For this reason, I do believe the Fed's hiking cycle has ended. I believe they will continue to talk tough and push the higher for longer narrative, but with cooling inflation next year I would not be surprised to see rate cuts in the back part of the year. This should bode well for the right stocks in the market. ETF Investors I was shocked to see that based on an annual study from Schwab Asset Management, millennial ETF investors have 45% of their portfolios in fixed income which is substantially higher than 37% for Generation X. Also, 51% of millennials plan to invest in bond ETFs next year, compared to just 40% of baby boomers. I believe the craziness of Covid investing and the meme stock craze has dented millennials view of stocks. Many want the quick hit when it comes to investing and they have failed to realize how long-term investing actually works. The unfortunate part is many of these millennials are hurting their long-term investment returns by shifting so much into fixed income and when they realize the benefits of long-term investing 5-10 years from now, they will have missed out on the massive benefit of compounding during that time period. PEG Ratio Every Monday we go over the main fundamentals of all the equities we hold in our portfolio. I'm talking about such things as the valuations for the earnings, sales and cash flow. We also look at the growth rate on the earnings and sales along with the debt and the liquidity of all the equities that we own. There are many other factors we look at and the entire process takes between three to four hours every Monday. We have done this every Monday for well over the past 20 years religiously. The reason I bring this up is I cannot remember the last time I saw such strong price/earnings ratios and attractive PEG ratios for companies in our portfolio. The PEG ratio shows an investor what they're paying for the future growth of a company. PEG Stands for price/earnings divided by growth. No one knows exactly when the turnaround will happen, but based on our 40 years of experience in the finance world, we have been through this many times and we are confident companies/stocks will soon be based on valuations including the PEG ratio. Those investors that remain patient with the right companies as always will be rewarded. Investors who panic and fall in love with a CD at 5% will have regrets down the road. Financial Planning: Tax Loss Harvesting Tax loss harvesting is when you sell an investment for less than you purchased it for to create a realized loss that can be used to offset other capital gains. Investors like to engage in tax loss harvesting at the end of the year to reduce their tax liabilities. Before selling a position at a loss, it is import to understand the full tax benefit and the opportunity cost so you can decide if it is worth it. For example, let's assume you wanted to take a loss on a $50,000 investment after the stock declined 15% to $42,500, resulting in a $7,500 loss to be used to offset some long-term capital gains. The average investor is in the 15% federal capital gain tax bracket and the 9.3% state tax bracket, meaning the $7,500 loss results in a tax reduction of $1,822.50. This sounds nice, but your $42,500 position would only need to grow by 4.29% to recoup that $1,822.50 tax savings, which is absolutely possible assuming the investment was purchased for the right reasons and still has strong fundamentals. Volatility in the market is normal, so it is important to avoid missing out on big gains to save a little in taxes. This doesn't mean tax loss harvesting is always a bad thing, in fact, there can be several reasons where it makes a lot of sense. If an investor can offset short-term capital gains or ordinary income with tax loss selling, the extra tax savings due to the higher tax rate may justify realizing a loss. Also, if an investor's AGI is close to triggering extra Income Related Monthly Adjustment Amounts for Medicare premiums or additional Net Investment Income Taxes, then a reduced income level from tax loss harvesting could be valuable. Or perhaps the investment doesn't have a lot of potential so it would be best to sell and purchase something else while receiving some tax saving consolation. There are instances where tax loss selling is helpful, but realizing losses simply because you have some gains is not always the best decision.

Frank is on the road for business for the week, so I, Daniel, am leading the show today.   I kick things off with a recap of my road trip to Ohio… including some good news about how our tax dollars are being spent. (I swear I'm not being sarcastic.)   Stocks are rallying even as war is breaking out in the Middle East. It's a great example of how markets and reality can be vastly different. I explain why this bounce could continue through the end of the year.   As expected, oil prices popped in response to the violence. Regular listeners know I've been bullish on energy for many months. I explain why the current environment creates major tailwinds for oil prices… why every investor should have exposure to energy stocks… and how the war impacts my thesis.   Next, I break down today's Producer Price Index (PPI)… highlight the one data point to focus on in tomorrow's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report (hint: it's all about energy prices)... and explain why the numbers could force the Fed to raise rates even more.   I also explain why hedge fund titan Bill Ackman has a bone to pick with Harvard… and why it's the latest sign of the growing division in our nation.   Don't miss tomorrow's episode of WSU Premium. I'll dig deeper into the energy sector… highlight the opportunities developing in consumer staples stocks… and reveal this week's Dollar Stock Club pick.    In this episode Proof that your tax dollars are working hard [1:35] Why this market rally could continue (despite the war) [9:15] A recipe for higher energy prices [19:20] The only inflation number that matters right now [23:10] Bill Ackman has a bone to pick with Harvard [25:45]   Enjoyed this episode? Get Wall Street Unplugged delivered FREE to your inbox each week: www.curzioresearch.com/wall-street-unplugged/   Wall Street Unplugged podcast is available at: --iTunes: itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/wall-street-unplugged-frank/ --Stitcher: www.stitcher.com/podcast/curzio-research/wall-street-unplugged-2 --Website: www.curzioresearch.com/category/podcast/wall-street-unplugged/   Twitter: twitter.com/frankcurzio Facebook:. www.facebook.com/CurzioResearch/ Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/in/frank-curzio-690561a7/ Website: www.curzioresearch.com

Insider trading occurs when a person or entity makes a profitable trade based on information that is not available to the public. Today's Stocks & Topics: CHGG - Chegg Inc., EL - Estee Lauder Cos. Cl A, UNM - Unum Group, Producer Price Index (PPI), Tech Companies, Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA), VEA - Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF, Office Building Debt.Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

VISIT HTTP://PETERNAVARRO.SUBSTACK.COM FOR THE TRANSCRIPT “Don't fight the tape” and its more modern-day equivalent “the trend is your friend” are familiar Wall Street cliches that perhaps best capture the market's present bullish mood.  Indeed, this week all major US indices hit 15-month highs.  The propellant for this latest move was seemingly good news on the inflation front.  Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) beat expectations with lower inflation numbers than estimated, and the Wall Street spin machine used this news to argue that the Fed need not raise interest rates at its next meeting.  Following this news, bond yields fell, and stock prices rose; and the big bet now is on a “soft landing” that will accommodate the bulls.  This hoped-for soft landing will, according to the bullish calls, result in a continued decline in inflation without a rise in the unemployment rate. Fair enough, but let's first take a deeper look at this week's actual inflation news.  Listen for the rest of the story...

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Listen to detailed observations about initial unemployment claims, the Fed's Beige Book report, and inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). Special guest, Justin Tantalo, Director of Multi-Strategy Research, shares observations on the private equity markets.   Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer Stephen Hoedt, CMT, Managing Director, Equity & Fixed Income ResearchJustin Tantalo, Director of Multi-Strategy Research 01:35 – This week's market and economic activity03:06 – Perspectives on this week's economic data, comments on inflation, and predictions on what CPI data means for future Fed rate increases 05:19 – Comments on the equity market and earnings expectations 10:18 – Observations on Private Equity markets, specifically in Venture Capital Additional Resources:Key Questions: SCOTUS Squashed Biden's Student Loan Forgiveness Program. Will It Squash the Economic Recovery? | Key Private BankSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterEconomic & Market ResearchWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

Inflation Inflation continues to retreat from the high levels we saw last year. May's CPI report showed headline inflation rose 4% when compared to last year. This is a nice deceleration from last month's 4.9% gain, and it is well off last June's 9% increase. Areas that remained hot in the report included motor vehicle repair (+19.7%), motor vehicle insurance (+17.1%), and food (+6.7%). Many energy costs have seen large year over year declines and gasoline in particular is down around 20%. There are also other areas in the report that are showing declines. This includes airline fares (-13.4%), used cars and trucks (-4.2%), major appliances (-10%), and televisions (-11.5%). Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was somewhat of a disappointment as it rose 5.3% compared to last year. While core inflation has not cooled as much as the headline number, it is important to remember that the shelter index rose 8.0% compared to last year and accounted for over 60% of the gain in core inflation. We continue to believe the shelter index will decline substantially as we exit the year and will be a major help in reducing core inflation. PPI More positive news on the inflation front as the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the month of May came in at a gain of 1.1% compared to last year. This compares to last month's reading of 2.3% and it is the lowest reading since December 2020. It is also well-off last May's reading of 11.1%. This continues to fuel my belief that inflation will be a much smaller problem as we exit the year. Companies no longer have the need to pass on the huge increases in prices they saw last year to the consumer.    Consumers People may continue to complain about the economy, but the consumer is still spending. Retail sales in May showed a gain of 1.6% compared to last year. There are some areas that remain negative which include furniture and home furnishing stores (-6.4%) and electronics and appliance stores (-5.0%), but the biggest negative in the report was gasoline stations which saw sales decline 20.5%. Much of this is due to the decline in gas prices. This was a big weight on the report and if it was excluded from the headline number, retail sales would have risen 4.0%. I would actually consider this a positive as consumers are able to spend in other areas of the economy rather than wasting money at the gas station. Areas that were strong in the report included non-store retailers (+6.5%), health and personal care stores (+7.8%), and food services and drinking places (+8.0%). Overall, this report shows me the consumer still feels good enough to keep spending, which I believe is positive for the economy.    Investment Choices Have you ever showed up to a party early and were the only one there? It can be kind of boring, but you know the party will start soon and it will get better. That is happening to many investors now, unless you're in a few tech companies that mentioned the term AI. If you hold in your portfolio healthcare companies, financials, real estate, or energy, it's been very disheartening year-to-date with those sectors going down. Don't give up yet, stay at the party a little longer as there is light at the end of the tunnel. We see such things as the American Association of Individual Investors shows that bears outnumber bulls by eight percentage points. Usually, the bulls outpace the bears by 6.5 points. A survey from Bank of America of managers overseeing trillions of dollars in assets shows their cash position is now nearly 6% of a portfolio. This is up from under 4% at the end of 2021. The average peak for cash is just over 6%. I believe in the second half of this year you'll see these managers trying to play catch up and get their money invested soon. The S&P 500 has come out of the 248-trading day bear market, which was the longest since 1948. By the end of the year, I believe we will see a nice catch-up in the sectors of the S&P 500 that have been lagging. I would not expect to see much in the technology stocks, and I would say at best they'll probably be treading water. So grab a glass of wine and be a little more patient as I believe you'll be celebrating during the holidays of 2023 if you hold the right companies. 

CPI Headline CPI of 4.9% came in below expectations of 5.0% and registered the slowest growth since April 2021. It also marked the 10th consecutive month of slower growth since the report peaked in June 2022 at 9%. Areas that continued to see a growth in prices were food (+7.7%), motor vehicle insurance (+15.5%), transportation services (+11.0%), admissions which includes concerts, movies and theaters (+6.9%), and electricity (+8.4%). There continues to be more components that are registering declines compared to last year. Energy was a big one as it was down 5.1% as gas and oil prices fell from high prices last year. Gasoline in particular was down 12.2%. Other areas that saw declines included major appliances (-10.4%), used cars and trucks (-6.6%), and even airfares (-0.9%). The Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, did come in higher than the headline number at 5.5% but over 60% of that increase came from shelter costs which grew 8.1% compared to last year. If those shelter costs were removed from the report the Core CPI would have grown at just 3.7%. Overall, I continue to see inflation heading in the right direction as costs continue to decelerate.   PPI Big news on the Producer Price Index (PPI) as it came in with just a 2.3% increase in April. This was the lowest reading since January 2021, and it was well off the high of 11.3% in June 2022. This is so important because if businesses are not seeing costs increase as much, they should not need to increase prices as much for consumers to offset the costs. I really believe inflation will not be a problem as we exit 2023 and head into 2024.   Regional Banks The regional banks have really caused a lot of concern in the markets lately. Unfortunately, short sellers have stepped in and are magnifying movements of stock prices beyond belief. But if an investor looks at where some of these regional banks are trading, like Western Alliance at 2.3 times forward earnings or CoAmerica at 3.9 times forward earnings, it would appear that the worst is probably over. For the big banks, they have been beaten up somewhat as well, and are currently trading at 1.2 to 1.3 times tangible book value. If you back out the non-cash impact from potential bond portfolio losses, the price to tangible book value trades closer to one. The normal for big banks is more around two times tangible book value. For an investor looking down the road two or three years I think this is a good time to add some good bank positions to the portfolio after some strong research. I would also caution investors to be prepared for a bumpy ride for the next few months but if you wait and by the time everything looks good, you would've missed the opportunity.   Consumer Credit You may hear how terrifying it is that revolving consumer credit outstanding is at record highs and recently in February it was at $1.2 T. What you don't hear though is how that number relates as a percentage of disposable income. In fact, in the chart below you'll see revolving consumer credit outstanding as a percent of personal income was just 6.2% in February and is actually still below pre-covid levels. It's important to understand that when the price of assets and incomes rise so will costs and debt levels. The absolute level is not nearly as important as the relationship that the numbers have.

CPI Headline CPI came in at 5% compared to last year, which was the lowest level since the May 2021 report and well off the June 2022 high of 9%. Some reasons for the slower gain include gasoline which was down 17.4%, used cars and trucks down 11.2%, televisions down 14%, and uncooked beef roasts down 4.4%. Areas that remain elevated include transportation services up 13.9% (Airfare was up 17.7%), electricity up 10.2%, and food was up 8.5%. The big problem in the report continues to be the shelter index which accounts for about 1/3 of CPI and rose 8.2%. Some people may point to a concern over core CPI, which takes out the volatile food and energy components, as it rose 5.6% compared to last year and was higher than February's reading of 5.5%. But looking closer at the numbers, the shelter index accounted for about 60% of the increase in core CPI. Excluding shelter, the CPI rose just 3.4% from a year ago. I continue to believe the shelter index will level off as we progress through the year and have a much smaller impact on CPI. Overall, I would say this inflation report was a major positive and should provide evidence to the Fed that a pause in rate hikes could make sense. PPI Huge news on the inflation fronts as the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month over month decline of 0.5% in the month of March. This was well below estimates for the index to be flat in the month. Looking at the 12-month change, the index showed an increase of just 2.7%. This was the smallest increase since January 2021 and is well off the high from last March of 11.7%. The Fed has pointed to concerns over services pricing, but this report also indicated that prices for services fell 0.3% in the month which was the largest decline since April 2020. With a report like this I really believe the Fed should consider not raising rates at the next meeting.  Retail Sales The headline retail sales numbers may concern some, but digging through the numbers they indicate exactly what we've been anticipating, a slowing economy not a troubled economy. The headlines read that retail sales fell 1% in the month, more than the estimate of a 0.5% decline but looking at the numbers compared to last March sales increased 2.9%. It's important to point out that this is not adjusted for inflation, which was 5% in the month of March. The biggest negative weight on the numbers was the decline of 14.2% at gas stations largely due to the decline in gas prices. If we exclude gas stations from retail sales, they would have been up 4.8% compared to March 2022. Other negatives included electronics and appliance stores which were down 10.3%, building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers were down 3.5%, furniture and home furnishings stores were down 2.4%, and clothing and clothing accessory stores were down 1.8%. The major gainers in the report were food services and drinking places which were up 13%, non-store retailers were up 12.3%, health and personal care stores were up 7.1%, and food and beverage stores were up 5.0%.  Real Estate Real estate transactions remain on the low side as housing prices are beginning to weaken. With the higher prices of homes and the higher interest rates many first-time buyers have been locked out of the housing market. The movement of the real estate market generally happens where people will trade up to perhaps a larger or more expensive home opening the lower priced homes for first time buyers. But with many of these homes the homeowners locked in mortgage rates in the 3% range, and they don't see the benefit of buying a more expensive home with mortgage rates double what they're paying now. I believe it will take years for the real estate market to adjust to a more normal market. 

Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles Guest Co-host: Chris Alaimo Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a clear contrarian thesis of a deflationary breakdown of the financial system leading to bitcoin adoption. We question narratives and schools of thought, and try to form new understanding. Each episode we use current events to question mainstream and bitcoin narratives across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.  Find all charts and links at bitcoinandmarkets.com/fed140 In this episode, CK was running a little late, so Chris Alaimo jumped in to fill in co-hosting duties. A few minutes CK jumps in and we have a good three-host episode. Our topics for today were Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers out of the US. CPI was released on Wednesday this week, and PPI on Thursday. There was a lot to be learned by taking a look at the data in a certain way. Make sure to check out all the chart on the bitcoinandmarkets.com link above. March CPI came in under the 0.2% month-over-month (m/m) forecast, at 0.1%. Down from 0.4% last month. If you go back to the February data, the main story-line back then was reacceleration of inflation. I thought that was unlikely, and March saw a dramatic decline. If you scrap the nearly worthless year-over-year (y/y) headline number, which is only a cumulative m/m, and instead focus on CPI since July 2022, the annualized rate for those 9 months is 3.4%, not the 5.0% of the headline y/y number. I forecasted CPI to be in the 2% y/y headline range by July this year. To confirm that theory, we rolled into the PPI, or upstream prices that producers are paying. The PPI tends to lead the CPI by 3 months. March PPI came in at -0.5%. Yep, negative. Lastly, we reexamine the small business funding in the US and banks' lending standards. The numbers are pretty startling. Lending standards are tightening rapidly and small business sentiment is the lowest EVER. Even lower than the Great Financial Crisis or Dotcom crash. All these things together tell us that a slowdown is coming. The question now is does that tip over into a hard landing, deep recession? I still don't think so. Of course, the economic fallout will be geographically distributed. Some national economies will be hit much worse than others. Thanks for joining us. If you are reading this, hit the like and subscribe button! Constant updates on bitcoin and macro Free weekly Bitcoin Fundamentals Report Ansel Lindner On Twitter Christian Keroles On Twitter Chris on Twitter Watch this Episode: YouTube ||  Rumble  Slide deck BLS CPI home BLS PPI home If you enjoy this content please LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, REVIEW on iTunes, and SHARE! Written by Ansel Lindner Find More and Follow THIS EPISODE'S SPONSORS: Moon Mortgage - https://www.moonmortgage.io River - https://river.com/ Gordon Law - https://gordonlawltd.com/ Bitcoin 2023 Miami - https://b.tc/conference/ Bitcoin Magazine - https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/ Bitcoin Magazine Pro - https://bitcoinmagazine.com/tags/bitcoin-magazine-pro Lower your time preference and lock-in your BITCOIN 2023 conference tickets today! Use the code BMLIVE for a 10% Discount! https://b.tc/conference/2023 Use promocode: BMLIVE for 10% off everything in our store

 Dr. Rasmus takes a deep look at last week's latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation reports. A detailed summary of his view of the various supply forces causing inflation and demand forces. Why inflation remains mostly supply side driven, not demand driven, and why the Fed won't slow inflation much further despite continuing interest rate hikes in 2023. Supply forces include: global supply chain issues, war and sanctions, global commodity price speculators, widespread price gouging by monopolistic corps in the US, and in general record falling productivity (and rising unit labor costs) for US businesses being passed on to consumers. Dr. Rasmus reviews the US ‘productivity crisis' driving unit labor costs in particular. The show concludes with recap of statistics on US GDP slowdown after $8T in fiscal monetary stimulus and the causes of US deficits and national debt now at $31T and projected to rise another $12T by end of decade. (NEXT WEEK: the show will be dedicated to reviewing the war in Ukraine and revisiting Dr. Rasmus's January 2022 article, ‘Ten Reasons Why the US May Want Russia to Invade Ukraine'.

This morning's Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in hotter than expected—showing a 0.7% increase, vs. 0.4% estimates. It's just one of several signs that inflation has surged over the past few weeks.   Daniel and I discuss the growing disconnect between what the Fed is saying and what the market is hearing… why investors need to be prepared for more rate hikes… and why the Fed is fighting a battle it can't win.   Charlie Munger is in the news for his latest anti-Bitcoin comments… even praising China for banning it. Daniel rants about Munger's belligerent stance—and the hypocrisy of a lifelong capitalist praising communism/authoritarianism.   I also share how regulation could act as a tailwind for the crypto market in the coming years.   Lastly, I'm curious: For those of you who didn't sell Bitcoin last year amid all the bankruptcies, fraud, and volatility… is there anything that would convince you to sell? .   In this episode    Breaking down the latest PPI data [1:30] Forget about a soft landing for the economy [7:00] The Fed's no-win situation [12:18] Why Charlie Munger is a hypocrite [19:25] What would it take to make you sell your Bitcoin? [28:00]   Enjoyed this episode? Get Wall Street Unplugged delivered FREE to your inbox each week:   Wall Street Unplugged podcast is available at: --: itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/wall-street-unplugged-frank/ --: www.stitcher.com/podcast/curzio-research/wall-street-unplugged-2 --: www.curzioresearch.com/category/podcast/wall-street-unplugged/   : twitter.com/frankcurzio :. www.facebook.com/CurzioResearch/ : www.linkedin.com/in/frank-curzio-690561a7/ : www.curzioresearch.com

In this episode of the Planned Solutions Incorporated Podcast, Consumer prices have been in focus for the past several years as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported above-average increases in prices. However, what has been lost in this data is the even larger increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) which measures prices paid by businesses for raw materials. This has caused profit margins to be squeezed as input prices increased faster than end prices. However, this pressure appears to be dissipating as producer prices have declined. Also, With home electricity prices having increased and Congress extending the 30% tax credit for solar panels, many people are once again considering investing in solar. In deciding whether or not to install solar it may be beneficial to determine the cost/benefit in terms of the time period it will take to break even and the time period that the solar panels are expected to last. And, The Secure Act 2.0 has expanded access to Roth accounts for many retirement savers. First, the option to elect Roth status is expanded to SIMPLE IRAs and SEP IRAs which were previously not allowed to make Roth contributions. Second, the matching contributions made by employers may be directed to a Roth account as long as the taxpayer pays the taxes on the contributions when made and there is no vesting schedule associated with the account. Plus a look at the Planned Solutions Incorporated Office Bulletin Board- The Internal Revenue Service announced that Monday, January 23, 2023, will be the beginning of the 2023 tax season (the tax when tax returns may be submitted and processed for the 2022 tax year.) In addition, taxpayers will have three extra days to file this year, with the deadline on April 18, 2023, due to the normal deadline falling on a holiday Chase Armer's book- Financial Planning Insights is now available at: www.amazon.com/Financial-Planning…1586894022&sr=8-1 To subscribe to the Personal Finance Review (the written form of all the content we discuss on the podcast) please e-mail Katie@PlannedSolutions.com The Personal Finance Review is published and distributed on a biweekly basis by Planned Solutions, Inc. for informational purposes only. Please seek the advice of a qualified financial planner before taking any action. Planned Solutions, Inc.

Inflation Big news on the inflation fronts today as the Producer Price Index (PPI) in December showed a monthly decline of 0.5% vs the estimate for a decline of 0.1%. Year over year the index showed an increase of 6.2% which is the lowest annual increase since March 2021 and is far from the high in March 2022 of 11.7%. This is a major positive as for over a year now I've been saying the CPI won't come down until the PPI comes down, as producers have needed to pass the higher costs onto consumers. A problem in the report is energy was a major benefit as the energy index fell 7.9% in the month and gasoline in particular was down 13.4%. Given the current landscape I do expect energy prices to increase from current levels, but not enough to make a dramatic difference to the inflation reports. Overall, this report gives me confidence in my estimate that we will see inflation in a range of 4-6% for 2023.   Consumer Spending Retail sales for December fell 1.1% compared to the prior month, this missed the estimate of 0.8%. Looking at the results compared to last December, retail sales climbed 6.0%. This did not keep pace with the CPI increase in the month of 6.5%, which likely means most if not all of the growth in retail sales was a function of higher prices. Areas that saw good growth compared to the prior year included non-store retailers as they were up 13.7%, food services and drinking places were up 12.1%, and grocery stores were up 7.3%. With lower gas prices in the month, gas stations saw a month over month decline of 4.6% but compared to last December sales were still 5.2% higher. Areas that struggled in the month continued to be electronics & appliances as sales fell 5.6%, department stores saw a decline of 0.6%, and furniture & home furnishing stores had a small gain of just 0.3%. I would say this report wasn't good, but again it wasn't overly concerning. It appears consumers are still spending but continue to prefer experiences rather than the products they loaded up on during Covid.   Debt Ceiling You may have seen the news about the concerns regarding the debt ceiling of $31.4T being reached. Frankly, I'm not too concerned about major problems stemming from this as it has been a recurring issue. In fact, from 1997-2022 the debt ceiling has been increased 22 times, which is essentially once per year. I do believe a deal will be reached to avoid jeopardizing the creditworthiness of the government. My concern is that we need to fix spending as we should not have to keep increasing this debt ceiling every year.    Costco Buyback Program I saw Costco announced a stock buyback program but looking at it closely it's unimpressive to say the least. The program authorizes $4 B worth of buybacks but that is through January 2027. The previous authorization was set to expire in April of this year and was adopted in 2019 with the same $4 B limit. Interestingly, the company only repurchased $1.4 B worth of shares under the program. Looking at the market cap for Costco of about $210 B, if the $4b was fully implemented that would only represent 1.9% of the overall shares. Also, considering the shares trade at about 30x 2024 earnings I believe repurchasing shares at this level would be a waste of capital.   Harrison – “Life Insurance Review”

Producer Price Index (PPI) Although the headline Producer Price Index (PPI) number saw a gain of 0.3% compared to last month, I actually thought the report was in line with what we'd been expecting. If you look compared to last year the PPI increased 7.4% which is a nice deceleration from the 8% level in October and the peak of 11.7% in March. Part of the reason for the deceleration is the comps are getting harder. What I mean by that is last year the PPI showed an annual gain of 10% compared to the prior year. When we lap the 11.7% number in March, I believe it will be hard to grow another 7-8% off that number, especially with the decline in many commodities from their peak levels. As a reminder we don't believe inflation will be disappearing in 2023, we believe it will be decelerating to a level of around 4-6% for the full year.   Freight Costs More positives on the inflation front. Remember how constrained shipping was last year and how expensive it had become? Well now if you look at the prices, they have come way down. Freight costs from Asia-U.S. West Coast have fallen 90% compared to last year and now stand around $1,426/FEU (forty-foot equivalent unit). This pushed prices down by 5% when compared to 2019 levels. Freight costs from Asia-U.S. East Coast now stand around $3,723/FEU which is down 78% compared to last year and costs from Asia-Northern Europe are around $3,974/FEU which is 73% lower than last year.   Big Tech Companies I learned a long time ago not to just read headlines and think you understand what is going on. People have been saying things are getting worse because they see the big tech companies laying off people with headlines showing numbers like 10,000 layoffs coming. We have said that's only a small part of the big picture and if you look at the recent jobs report, you will see the information sector, which includes many tech jobs, had a net increase of 20,000 jobs. I know it takes time to read the details when information comes out but if you don't, you won't have a clear understanding of what is really going on.   Plant-Based Meat Remember about three years ago the fad was no one was going to eat red meat and the company Beyond Meat was going to take over the meat aisle in the grocery store. Fast forward to today and the company has seen its grocery stores sales declining 12% even as they are cutting prices to try to boost their sales. In the most recent earnings report the revenue fell 23% year after year yielding a quarterly loss of $102 million. I still remember some people telling me I was missing out that I did not get it that people were switching over to plant-based meat. Back in the summer of 2019 the stock had peaked over $196 and is now down over 90% trading at $14 a share. When it comes to investing, I will always take strong fundamentals over the hype of the next best thing.   Harrison – “Sole proprietor or S-Corp”

At least one big-box retailer sees sales declining as families contend with higher prices, forcing trade-offs between what they need and what they want. Today's Stocks & Topics: Earnings for 2023, Producer Price Index (PPI), Companies That Are Good Inflation Investments, APLE - Apple Hospitality REIT Inc., TER - Teradyne Inc., AMAT - Applied Materials Inc., KBWB - Invesco KBW Bank ETF, Strong Dollar, and Interest Rates, 401(k) Contributions, HII - Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc., Corporate Bond Market.Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

On Monday, at JPMorgan Chase's Techstars conference in London, CEO Jamie Dimon said that a “very, very serious” mix of headwinds was likely to tip both the U.S. and global economy into recession by the middle of next year. Dimon said the U.S. economy was “actually still doing well” at present and consumers were likely to be in better shape compared with the 2008 global financial crisis. “But you can't talk about the economy without talking about stuff in the future — and this is serious stuff.” In today's episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied take a closer look at this "serious stuff," as well as Dimon's warning that we could be looking at a recession in 6 to 9 months. They discuss the recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report, including what exactly it is and how it acts as a kind of tertiary metric that provides insight into how inflation is likely to be reported. Chris and Saied look at an open letter written by Cathie Wood, founder, CEO and CIO of Ark Invest in which she says that the Federal Reserve has been making a big mistake by over-hiking rates and using lagging indicators to make their decisions. They discuss a recent article claiming that an NFT that YouTuber and social media personality Logan Paul purchased for $600,000 is now worth... $10. Chris and Saied also explore the dichotomy between mortgage rates and homebuyer hesitation. The interest rate on the most popular home loan in America has fallen for the first time in seven weeks. Yet even with the decline, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is still more than double what it was last year. Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating conversation. Enjoy! What You'll Learn in this Show: What exactly the PPI report is and how it acts as a kind of tertiary metric that provides insight into how inflation will be reported. Cathie Wood's open letter to the Fed criticizing ‘mistakes' it has made with excessive rate increases and the reliance on lagging indicators. Logan Paul's $600,000 NFT investment, whose value has taken a nosedive to the tune of roughly $599,990. The reasons why mortgage rates are down for the first time in nearly two months, but hesitation remains high. And so much more... Resources: https://www.bankrate.com/banking/biggest-banks-in-america/ ("The 15 Largest Banks in America") (article from Bankrate) https://apple.news/AHJMdpKuHQU-Tga5gMySo-Q ("Mortgage rates step back from the brink, but hesitation is still at a 25-year high") (article from MoneyWise) https://www.instagram.com/p/Cjg-6iTrRY5/ ("The NFT Logan Paul purchased for over 600K is now worth $10") (Jungleboys via Instagram) https://beincrypto.com/what-is-logan-pauls-623000-nft-worth-today/ ("What Is Logan Paul's $623,000 Azuki NFT Worth Today?") (article from BeInCrypto) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-10/cathie-wood-warns-fed-of-policy-error-as-rate-hikes-hit-ark-etfs ("Cathie Wood Warns Fed of Policy Error as Rate Hikes Hit ARK ETFs") (article from Bloomberg) https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/10/jpmorgan-jamie-dimon-warns-us-likely-to-tip-into-recession-soon.html ("‘This is serious': JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon warns U.S. likely to tip into recession in 6 to 9 months") (article from CNBC)

On Tuesday, I held an emergency briefing to explain why I believe stocks could fall significantly from current levels… and how to not only protect your portfolio, but make a fortune. If you missed it, not to worry—you can check out the . Next, Daniel and I discuss Biden's shocking (and tonedeaf) statements about a recession… the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data—and whether we'll see any relief from inflation… why valuations are still way too high… and why this earnings season will be one for the ages. Plus, some good news about my beloved Eagles. In this episode  [1:55] What is Biden smoking? [6:15] Breaking down the latest CPI and PPI numbers [8:00] Why stock valuations must come down [16:10] This earnings season will be ugly [18:15] Why the Moneyflow Trader strategy is like shooting fish in a barrel [30:30] The Eagles are at it again [40:48] Enjoyed this episode? Get Wall Street Unplugged delivered FREE to your inbox every Wednesday: https://www.curzioresearch.com/wall-street-unplugged/ Wall Street Unplugged podcast is available at: --: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/wall-street-unplugged-frank/ -- : https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/curzio-research/wall-street-unplugged-2 -- : https://www.curzioresearch.com/category/podcast/wall-street-unplugged/   : https://twitter.com/frankcurzio :. https://www.facebook.com/CurzioResearch/ : https://www.linkedin.com/in/frank-curzio-690561a7/ :

(1:16) - Chuck and Paul begin the show reviewing the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for September, which was slightly higher than expected.(15:19) - Talking about what Wall Street's expectations for earnings season are as many companies struggle with a tight labor market and inflation.(24:11) - Estate planning attorney Todd Lutsky of Cushing & Dolan joined the show for another edition of "Ask Todd".

Inflation The market is not liking the CPI report today as the inflation rate of 8.3% topped the expectation of 8.0%. It was down from July's 8.5% rate, but it remains stubbornly high and likely cements a Fed Funds Rate increase of 0.75% at next week's meeting. Energy was down 5.0% in the month and gasoline was down 10.6% in the month, but year over year energy is still up 23.8% and gasoline is 25.6% higher. Food remains one of the major concerns as prices increased 11.4% year over year. Shelter, which occupies close to 1/3 of the CPI, also remains high with the year-over-year gain at 6.2%. With the huge surge in housing prices over the last couple years I continue to believe this category has more room to run over the coming months. I also worry that while energy prices have come down month over month, companies have not been able to effectively offset these costs and more price increases could be on the way. This remains especially true in the transportation services component, which saw a year-over-year gain of 11.3%. Inflation remains a major problem in the economy, but I still believe we can exit 2022 with an inflation rate of around 6% barring a major supply chain disruption or a major spike in energy prices. Oil We keep saying we need to pump more oil here in the US and some people are saying the Biden administration is doing everything it can. In the first 19 months the administration will have leased federal acreage for oil drilling of 130,000. At first glance that may sound like a lot, but it is the lowest amount of acreage leased since President Kennedy in the early 1960s. Do you want to guess what our energy consumption is now compared to 60 years ago? IPO's With a difficult market in 2022 initial public offerings also known as IPO‘s have really been rather scarce. It has now been over 115 days since the last traditional IPO of more than $25 million. The last time that happened was in 2008. I don't believe much will be changing for the rest of 2022. At this point in time, we're taking a wait-and-see attitude for 2023 and will be having a clearer view of what to expect from markets probably by mid-November. Bitcoin When the country El Salvador made bitcoin its legal currency bitcoin advocates promoted this is the beginning of worldwide acceptance. You haven't heard much about how bitcoin has done in El Salvador because it has been a disaster at best. The poor country which has $800 million in government bonds coming due in 2023 and 2025 is current looking like they will not be able to make that payment. Yet they're authoritarian rule leader Bukele has spent $250 million on digital infrastructure including setting up 200 bitcoin ATMs which apparently have high fees and can take up to six hours for a transfer from dollars to bitcoin. The country set up digital wallets for its citizens with a $30 bitcoin bonus. After the citizens used the $30, 80 percent never used it again. 92% of the small and medium size businesses say it has been immaterial for them and prefer cash or credit cards. The IMF, the world bank and international bond markets still oppose bitcoin and no other country has followed El Salvador in making bitcoin their currency after a year in existence. The citizens of the country still prefer to use what they have use this 2001, the US dollar. Entertainment Amazon is really pushing forward in the entertainment industry spending $15 billion this year on that division. They face heavy competition from companies like Netflix, Disney, Paramount, and Warner Bros. discovery. The consumer could win here with all the competition prices should remain stable and not increase for a while Transportation One potential event that could be absolutely disastrous for inflation and our economy would be a U.S. rail strike. Currently, 10 of the 12 railroad worker unions have struck deals with companies like Union Pacific, Norfolk Southern, and CSX, but the remaining two unions, Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen and the International Association of Sheet Metal Air, Rail, and Transportation Workers continue to holdout due to disagreements over attendance policies. While a large majority of the unions have settled, these two unions represent over 90,000 rail employees or about half of railroad union workers. It's estimated that a shutdown of this magnitude could cost the US economy $2 B/day. It would also create a new supply chain crisis that would send shockwaves across many retailers, transportation companies like UPS and FedEx, and have a negative impact on food prices. I'm optimistic we'll see a deal by late Friday, but if not congress can step in to block the strike.   US Jobs It doesn't seem that long ago we were complaining about US jobs going overseas. Well, that trend seems to be reversing with an expectation of 350,000 jobs returning to the US this year. That is the largest increase since 2010. Producer Price Index As an update to our CPI post yesterday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) was released today and saw an increase of 8.7% compared to last August. This is the lowest increase we have seen since August of last year and it is well off the highs we saw of 11+%, but at this rate I believe companies will still need to pass on these higher prices which will continue to cause elevated rates in the CPI. Banks Banks get audited every year to verify that all the numbers are correct, and your money is safe. How would you feel if you found out that your bank has not gone through an audit in five years but was saying they will try to get one done in a few months? Well, that is what crypto firm Tether Holdings is saying. They are the firm that is promising each token can be redeemed for one dollar. They have been promising to do an audit since 2017 and now the chief technology officer of Tether Holdings Limited is saying it is just months away. I don't know about you but when a company is avoiding audits for this long, I believe they have a lot to hide. Could this be the other shoe to drop on cryptocurrencies with no bottom in sight. I still wonder why anyone would hold onto any type of cryptocurrency with a hope that it will rebound in the future. Crypto There are some big changes in the crypto world with Ethereum. It has changed from what is known as proof of work to proof of stake. The big benefit is it's change will improve energy efficiency by more than 99%, which has been one of the big concerns on cryptocurrency production. The risk with what is being called “The Merge” is there could be glitches, outages or even lost tokens as the current Ethereum blockchain merges with the new one called Beacon. It appears it went smoothly last night, but it's important to follow the next few days as well as the merge settles. There are also other losers such as mining companies who have spent hundreds of millions of dollars on hardware. And even the large chip maker Nvidia, who produces chips for miners, cannot predict how this will hurt their demand. Year to date the stock is down over 50% perhaps the writing was on the wall. China China exports to the US in August fell by 3.8% year over year. This is good and bad. It's nice to see the decline in imports from China; however, that may be putting a squeeze on some products that we use and that could push up inflation on those products. Office Vacancy Office vacancy in the city was 17% in the second quarter compared with office vacancy in the suburbs at 16.8%. It's the first time that has flipped since 2002. More people are now going back to the office; however, it appears they prefer not to go into the city but to the suburban offices instead.

(1:04) - Mike and Marc open the show covering the agreement that U.S. rail workers reached in order to avoid a massive and detrimental strike.(12:32) - Touching on the Producer Price Index (PPI) which rose 0.1% in August.(23:46) - A discussion about the price of natural gas, which remans significantly lower in the U.S. than in Europe.(32:29) - Greg McBride of Bankrate called into the show to talk about how many workers are receiving pay raises that are not keeping up with the pace of inflation.

Here's what is happening in the markets today, Thursday, September 15th Stocks are slightly higher after Tuesday's massive sell-off Producer Price Index (PPI) in line with expectations This morning: Mixed bag of economic data Fear Index (VIX) drops again Ethereum upgrade complete - Here's what it means What's next? … and much more PLUS: How we trade these markets and our current positions This wraps up today's stock market news. If you enjoyed the "Stock Market Today" episode, make sure to subscribe to this podcast. And for more stock market news, visit our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/rockwelltrading2008 #todaysstockmarket #stockmarkettoday #stockmarket

After yesterday's market selloff, investors are processing a lot of negative news… I break down the details of the latest inflation numbers… why yesterday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data doesn't paint an accurate picture of what's really going on… and why the Fed should be focused on today's Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers—which tell a completely different story. Plus, I share why I think there's more pain ahead for the stock market. Despite the 10% pullback in Bitcoin yesterday, Daniel shares some exciting news for the crypto industry: Some of the biggest names on Wall Street have joined forces to launch a new crypto exchange: EDX Markets.  Finally, I share a no-brainer solution to the chaos in the global energy markets… (which you can get easy exposure to with The Dollar Stock Club)… In this episode  Breaking down yesterday's market plunge [0:30] The difference between CPI and PPI [4:40] How the Fed will cause more pain for stocks [11:38] Wall Street's biggest names have teamed up on crypto [23:14]  You need exposure to this no-brainer energy play [31:40] Enjoyed this episode? Get Wall Street Unplugged delivered FREE to your inbox every Wednesday: https://www.curzioresearch.com/wall-street-unplugged/ Wall Street Unplugged podcast is available at: --: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/wall-street-unplugged-frank/ -- : https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/curzio-research/wall-street-unplugged-2 -- : https://www.curzioresearch.com/category/podcast/wall-street-unplugged/   : https://twitter.com/frankcurzio :. https://www.facebook.com/CurzioResearch/ : https://www.linkedin.com/in/frank-curzio-690561a7/ :

Chapter Titles:00:00-00:55 What's the pulse on the market?00:55-02:15 July CPI Reports02:15-04:17 Where is inflation & where it isn't?04:17-5:09 Producer prices decreasing05:09-06:11 Alternative inflation charts06:11-8:00 Reduced Rate Hikes 8:00-12:56 Treasury Yield Spreads that signal recessions?12:56-17:30 What does the Fed Funds & Policy Rate mean for investors?What is the current inflation reports for July 2022? Are consumer & producer prices starting to slow down? Are we in a recession or moving towards one? How will the Fed respond to the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Producer Price Index (PPI) reports. What's going on with the inversions on the treasury yield spreads? Kevin touched on all of these areas and described how this is impacting the U.S on a macroeconomic scale. He explained some of the notable increases within the CPI, which was food at home, gas, transportation, airfares, & household energy. He also went over the expected rate hikes for the remainder of the year and if a pivot is on the table for the Federal Reserve in the fall of 2022. Lastly, Kevin reviewed the inversions with the 10- and 2-year Treasury Yields. As well as the 10-year treasury and the 3 month note. He provided some context on what the Fed Funds Rate & the policy rate means for investors and why it's an important indicator to pay attention to.Sponsors:Buzzsprout, the best way to start a podcast!https://www.buzzsprout.com/?referrer_id=1305358Safely secure your crypto with Ledger, the largest crypto hardware wallet! https://shop.ledger.com/?r=aa519baed9caInvest in crypto through a tax advantage retirement account with ITrust Capital!https://itrustcapital.com/referral100?utm_source=partner&utm_medium=youtube&utm_campaign=partner850&oid=10&affid=850Show email & contact info:Email: insightfulprinciples@gmail.comLinkTree: https://linktr.ee/insightfulprinciplesSocial Media:Instagram & Tik Tok: @insightfulprinciplesTwitter: @insightprinplesLinkedIn: Kevin Jenkins Clubhouse: @kevnjenkins#macro #economics #update #insightful #principlesSupport the show

"In a data dependent environment for the Federal Reserve, the inflation and jobs numbers are important. The jobs report is encouraging them to continue tightening. Both the Consumer Price Index or CPI and Producer Price Index PPI are in focus this week," says Michael Zarembski. He also weighs in on the crude oil and gasoline prices.

This episode's guest is Mara Macie who is a U.S. Congressional candidate for FL district 5.Mara discusses her reasons for running for Congress and the issues that are at the top of her list. Things like attacks  in the form of medical tyranny and woke indoctrination training which are impacting people serving in the nation's military.  Many service members are involved in a lawsuit against the DoD over the shot mandate and its violation of religious rights of service members. Mara also discusses the fall out from SCOTUS' reversal of Roe vs Wade, the weaponization of the abortion issue and attempts by Biden's administration to distract from their poor performance.Mara Macie for CongressMara Macie on FaceBookMara Macie on GETTRor email:  maramacieforcongress@protonmail.comTony and Haydon also look at the figures behind the inflation hitting everybody. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) updates were released on July 14th. Both were bad numbers for the American consumer with the CPI at 9.1% year on year and the PPI at 11.3% year on year. Links to some good information regarding the current situation.Current US Inflation Rates: 2000-2022US Inflation Rate by Year From 1929 to 2023United States Inflation RateHaydon and Tony then discuss issues raised in articles from Michael Schellenberger's sub stack. Schellenberger sheds light in Biden's attacks on the Energy industry and the shocking collapse of Sri Lanka caused by following the Globalist Elite's deranged policies. Links to the articles on Michael Schellenberger's substack.Why Biden's Attacks On Energy Are "Absolutely Insane"Green Dogma Behind Fall Of Sri LankaWe finish by looking at the exchange between Senator Josh Hawley and UC Berkeley Professor Khiara Bridges during a hearing on abortion. Her reaction to Sen Hawley's question has to be heard to be believed!Sen Hawley confronts Berkley law professor - Twitter short clipSen Hawley confronts Berkley law professor - YouTube extended clip

Inflation Another month, another extremely high inflation rate. The CPI came in today for the month of June at 9.1% which topped the estimate of 8.8% and was the highest level since November 1981. Energy inflation was top of mind yet again as gasoline prices climbed close to 60% compared to one year ago, electricity prices grew 13.7% over the same time frame, and natural gas was up 38.4%. Food prices also remained hot as they rose 10.4% over the last 12 months and the shelter index was up 5.6% which was the highest level since February 1991. One area that is seeing a "reprieve" from what I believe is more difficult comparisons is car prices. The cost for new vehicles was up 11.4% compared to last year and the used car & truck index was up 7.1% during the same time frame. Remember recently this was around 30%! With that said I still believe inflation will be lighter as we exit the year, but all lighter means is not as high! We have started to see some reduction in commodity prices which could help with input costs for companies and could slow the CPI in the months ahead. Remember it takes time for these various costs to work through supply chains and the overall economy. Producer Price Index (PPI) After yesterday's CPI report, the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained around historic levels. In the month of June, Headline PPI was up 1.1% compared to the month of May and increased 11.3% compared to last year (Recent all-time high was 11.6% in March). Of the month over month gain almost 90% came from a 10% increase in final demand energy. One positive note was the core PPI which excludes energy, as well as food and trade service prices was up 6.4% compared to last year. This was a deceleration from May's 6.8% gain and off the 7.1% gain we saw in March. Unfortunately, with these elevated prices, the higher costs will likely continue to be passed on to the end consumer. Recession There may be a recession coming but it will be the best recession we may have seen in our lifetime. There's not enough room in this post to list all the reasons so I will have to summarize some of the facts briefly. Inventory levels at many companies are low. Profit margins at companies are high around 18%. For reference, profit margins heading into recessions in 1991 and 2001 fell to single digits. Businesses are sitting on a record $4 trillion in cash. Households still have $18.5 trillion in checking accounts, savings accounts, and money market mutual funds which is about $5 trillion higher than before the pandemic. The job market is still very strong and in the 12 recessions since World War II that has never been the case. And I forgot to mention in the second quarter many commodities like soybeans, wheat and corn have dropped double digits. You may hear the media and other worry warts screaming the sky is falling like chicken little. But I believe this will not even feel like a recession. Let's see where we stand December 31, 2022. In the meantime, I'll be keeping my eye on the important data not the media hype! Housing Market Historically, slowdowns in new home construction have been a leading indicator for past recessions. In the month of May we saw new home construction drop 14% from a month earlier, but before you hit the panic button it's important to look at the lessons home builders learned from the housing crisis in 2007. During that time frame they drastically overbuilt, which does not appear to be the case this time around. In fact, in the first quarter, total US spending on home building was 22% below the pace of building at the peak of the early 2000s. I believe we have an expensive housing market set for a pullback, but by no means do I believe we have a housing crisis that led to the Great Recession in 2008 and 2009. Mortgage Rates People have been worrying about the increase in mortgage rates, but historically they are not out of control by any means. In fact, if you go back to 1971 the long-term average for 30-year mortgage rates is just under 8% and the record high that came about in 1981 was 16.64%! At around 6% I'd say we now have a more normalized interest rate environment and the days of getting under a 3% mortgage are in the past. Business Ethics I'm glad to see in what we may call these crazy times that ethics are still important. The Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) fined the accounting firm Ernst and Young $100 million for cheating on ethics exams. It is so important to keep the integrity of our businesses and our young graduates coming out from higher education good ethics result in a good long-term career. Job Retention As the economy slows down job retention should be on more employees' minds. A couple of things to think about. First if you switch jobs and you're the new hire at the company and there's a layoff you'll probably be the first one to go. Make sure your face is seen at the office, working remotely makes you less memorable and produces less of a connection with the employer which makes it much easier to put you on the list to go first. Make sure you're doing extra training to be more valuable to your employer and also show up to work a little early and don't leave right at 5 o'clock. Show your boss you care. If layoffs at your firm come around in the next 6 to 12 months, you want to make sure that you're known as a hard worker and that you're dependable. Employers We have been continually talking about the strong job market and how it will soften a recession. The average increase in base pay in the US so far in 2022 is 4.8%. This is what employers are coming up with to retain their employees. This is not like the past 12 recessions since World War II where employers were trying to reduce their employees pay to save money. About a third of employers are considering or planning midyear raises and many employers are giving percentage bonuses in the month of July. This is great news for consumers and the economy. The downside is inflation is eating into these gains. Retail Sales Retail sales came out today and I'd say it was an alright report. June retail sales were up 1% compared to May and compared to June 2021 they grew 8.4%. While that is a nice growth rate, it is important to remember inflation was 9.1% in the month which means the sales did not likely produce a real growth rate when accounting for inflation. Categories that drove the sales included gas stations which were up 49.1%, grocery stores up 8.3%, and food services and drinking places up 13.4%. Areas that were weak included electronics and appliance stores which were down 9.1%, department stores were down 2.9%, and auto & other motor vehicle dealers were down 1.1%. With the numbers now in for the full quarter I still believe it's possible GDP contracted again in Q2 as consumer spending was not able to keep up with inflation. Food Prices I don't know about you, but I really like corn on the cob with a nice coating of butter. Unfortunately, corn is one of the food categories because of the Russia and Ukraine war that has shot up 27% since January. On the other side of the coin rice has fallen 17% since January so maybe I will have to switch over to fried rice. However, health wise that is probably not the healthiest decision.   Harrison Johnson, CFP®: "Tax-loss Harvesting"

Chapter Titles00:00-02:50 Intro | Where is the economy going?02:50-04:58 Real GDP Decline04:58-06:40 Unemployment Rate06:40-08:23 Tech Companies Hiring Freezes08:23-16:10 Consumer Price Index (Inflation) 16:10-17:20 Inflation is much higher than reported numbers17:20-19:27 Producer Price Index (PPI)19:27-23:00 Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI)23:00- 25:33 Fed Interest Rate Hikes 25:33-27:46 Closing | Preparing for the Future Economy Sponsors:Buzzsprout, the best way to start a podcast!https://www.buzzsprout.com/?referrer_id=1305358Safely secure your crypto with Ledger, the largest crypto hardware wallet! https://shop.ledger.com/?r=aa519baed9caKevin described the current state of the economy in 2022. He explained some key indicators to pay attention to throughout 2022. The Real GDP numbers were discussed and the decline with economic activity in the US. What does this mean for economic activity if we go into another consecutive quarter of a decline with real GDP? Will this possible lead us into a recession? Kevin expressed how inflation is much higher than what has been reported and he provided his insight on what he expects with the next inflation report coming on June 10th, 2022. He also discusses the Producer Price Index and how it represents the changes in prices we see throughout the economy.Lastly, he goes over one important indicator that can be utilized to understanding if manufacturing in the economy is expanding or contracting. Understanding these important economic indicators can provide profitable foresight on the developing trends happening in the overall economy. Show email & contact info:Email: insightfulprinciples@gmail.comLinkTree: https://linktr.ee/insightfulprinciplesSocial MediaInstagram & TikTok: @insightfulprinciplesTwitter: @insightprinplesLinkedIn: Kevin Jenkins Clubhouse: @kevnjenkins#economy #2022 #insightful #principlesSupport the show

Here's what is happening in the markets today, Thursday, April 14th Stocks snap a 3-day losing streak "Dead Cat Bouncing" or "Buying The Dip"? Producer Price Index (PPI) is skyrocketing Airlines are on fire after Delta (DAL) reports earnings More earnings on deck from banks today Elon Musk and Twitter: the saga continues … and much more PLUS: Why I didn't take profits yesterday This wraps up today's stock market news. If you enjoyed the "Stock Market Today" episode, make sure to subscribe to this podcast. And for more stock market news, visit our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/rockwelltrading2008 #todaysstockmarket #stockmarkettoday #stockmarket

The Producer Price Index (PPI) offers a window on the cost pressures that businesses are facing and foretelling that those increases will likely be passed on to consumers. Today's Stocks & Topics: I-R-A, BABA - Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. ADR, Empty Offices, TEN - Tenneco Inc. Cl A, Trustable Financial Websites, MSFT - Microsoft Corp. & Metaverse, Life Insurance, Russian Pipelines, Investing with KPP, LUMN - Lumen Technologies Inc., ET - Energy Transfer LP., FSSNX - Fidelity Small Cap Index Fund, FXNAX - Fidelity US Bond Index Fund, FNSOX - Fidelity Short-Term Bond Index Fund, Small Caps.Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

(1:50) - Barry and Brendan start the show with an update on the Russia-Ukraine situation, which is trending toward a peaceful ending as Russia shows a willingness to talk with NATO.(14:00) - Reviewing the Producer Price Index (PPI) data that showed a 1% monthly jump in the cost of goods that producers are paying for.(22:05) - Discussing how seniors are quite possibly the segment of the population that has been hit the hardest by inflation, with higher costs for medication and assisted living fees.(33:14) - Touching on an outbreak of a deadly strain of bird flu that is beginning to affect the chicken industry in America.

Lots of values out there if you have a long term time horizon. Develop a plan and stay invested in order to see your gains snowball! Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers come in remarkably high and lead to a sell off in the stock and crypto space. Child tax credit payments are finished for 2021. Could that lead to slowing inflation? Listen in on my thoughts as to why we may be at an inflection point in the market.  Please  make sure to like, subscribe and share to stay up-to-date on all things investing! E-Trade Referral code https://refer.etrade.net/jsebastian1987 https://accounts.binance.us/en/register?ref=53539239 Use my referral link https://crypto.com/app/3jsnadjrsq to sign up for Crypto.com and we both get $25 USD. Open an account on webull, make a deposit and get a free share valued between $8-$2000!! https://a.webull.com/iq6NLY31wXgKyPlM1g --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/letitgrow/support

Hurricane Ida hit the Gulf Coast hard, but the U.S. government has agreed to sell crude oil from the nation's emergency reserve to eight companies under a scheduled auction to raise money for the federal budget. Today's Stocks & Topics: URNM - Northshore Global Uranium Mining ETF, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), Housing in China, Roth Conversion, Gold & Silver, FCX - Freeport-McMoRan Inc., ZM - Zoom Video Communications Inc., JNJ - Johnson & Johnson, APPS - Digital Turbine Inc., Late-Start Retirement, CHWY - Chewy Inc. Cl A, DOCN – Digital Ocean Holdings Inc. TRIVIA QUESTION:  "As it applies to personal BUDGET guidelines, what is the '50/30/20' rule?"Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Here's what is happening in the markets today, Friday, September 10th:- Stock futures point to a rebound open after a 4-day losing streak:- Investors will pay attention to the Producer Price Index (PPI) today- Moderna (MRNA) trading higher after it said it was working on a 2-in-1 vaccine that would protect against Covid-19 and the flu. - Facebook (FB) and Ray-Ban have finally unveiled Wayfarer Stories, the “smart glasses”- Affirm Holdings (AFRM) soared 22.4% in premarket trading as the “buy now, pay later” company's revenue easily topped estimates.- Dave & Buster's (PLAY) rallied 7.9% in premarket trading after beating earnings estimatesIf you enjoyed the "Stock Market Today" episode, make sure to subscribe to this podcast. And for more stock market news,  visit https://rockwelltrading.com.#todaysstockmarket #stockmarkettoday #stockmarket

The markets took a downward turn in response to US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and lackluster consumer spending. In today's Thirty Capital market roundtable discussion, the team had different views on how Afghanistan will impact the markets going forward, and the prospect of tapering. Analyst Jay Saunders says the turmoil in Afghanistan could play out for some time. Analyst Jason Kelley said it's really a watch-and-see time, noting there is an unwillingness on the part of politicians to step in and take action. Tapering May Come In November Some Fed members have indicated that tapering will come in Q4, but some analysts are doubtful, saying it will happen when it happens. “I'll buy that the Fed's going to start tapering when it starts tapering, and not before,” says Jay. “They'll find lots of excuses to keep a lot of stimulus in place.” Jay notes that there is a lot of talk about the Fed cutting back on issuance of Treasuries, which could play well into a tapering by the Fed. “It will be beneficial to the market if the Treasury starts issuing a little bit less debt,'' Jay concludes. Inflation Down Slightly, Very Low Consumer Spending Inflation numbers are down slightly, although some prices including oil are up, while lumber is down. But the biggest shock came with Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers, which are the lowest in a decade, revealing very low consumer sentiment. This week, retail sales figures will be released, and the team will be watching closely to see how these figures play out with low consumer sentiment, especially given that stimulus checks have played out. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) was a little higher than anticipated, noted Analyst Bryan Kern. Eviction Moratorium Extended Evictions won't happen in the near future, with the extension of the eviction moratorium. This  will push back some of the pent-up flow of empty housing. The impact will, of course, be felt once the moratorium is gone.

There were mostly gains across the board yesterday. The market rose 0.5%, as three of Australia's largest iron ore producers hit record prices. Overnight US equities rose off the back of strong corporate earnings. All three major indices closed with gains. Robinhood debuted on the Nasdaq starting trade at $38 and closed its debut session at $34.82, 8.4% below the IPO price. The Aussie share market is set to open higher, with the futures suggesting a 0.1% lift. What to watch today:In economic news, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the second quarter and Private Sector Credit for June will be released at 11:30am AEST. In local COVID-19 news, yesterday NSW recorded its worst day with 239 new cases. Further restrictions have been introduced for NSW local government areas of concern, including mandatory masks outside of the house and staying within a 5km radius. Watch Janus Henderson (ASX:JHG) after the company released positive second quarter results yesterday after the market close. JHG reported a 95% increase in operating income, and overnight its share price rose 6% in the US. In company news, Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) will report second quarter sales today and Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) will release their quarterly result. The oil price jumped again, trading 1.4% higher at US%73 a barrel. Gold is also trading 1.1% higher, while iron ore is trading lower at US$213 per tonne. Trading Ideas:Bell Potter maintain their BUY recommendation on Mader Group (ASX:MAD) after they released a strong 4th quarter update. MAS closed yesterday at $0.97, implying 40.6% share price growth in a year.  Eagers Automotive (ASX:APE) is a Bell Potter BUY stock and Bell Potter have increased their price target to $18.75 (previously $17.50). The stock closed 2.7% higher yesterday, implying just over 14% share price growth in a year. Bell Potter also maintain their BUY recommendation on Gold Road Resources (ASX:GOR), after the company released their June quarter results. They closed yesterday at $1.30, implying just over 34% share price growth in a year. Bullish charting signals have been identified in Perseus Mining (ASX:PRU), De Grey Mining (ASX:DEG) and Ioneer (ASX:INR), according to Trading Central.

The Treasures fell by more than seven basis points today, highlighting fears around the Delta variant and inflation.  Short-term rates are up slightly from last week. However, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both released figures last week that were higher than estimates, indicating inflation in both categories.  Enhanced Child Tax Credits will soon lead to an increase in consumer spending, keeping inflation relatively high.  Meanwhile, oil prices are at their highest level since 2008. Economic growth is slow, while inflation continues to impact the economy. The big question is: For how long?  Concerns Around Long-Term Growth While plenty of recent headlines have focused on the Delta variant of COVID, Thirty Capital's Analyst Jay Saunders believes: “I think we've got a grasp on COVID. I don't think we're going into another lockdown that's going to slow the economy. This is really a concern over long-term growth outlook.” Feds Not Raising Rates Anytime Soon Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's semi-annual report to Congress on the state of the U.S. economy was actually quite dovish, observes Thirty Capital's CEO Rob Finlay. “He's basically saying that we don't need to raise rates anytime soon.” However, cautions Rob, the market has clearly shown this morning that there's a flight from equities to Treasury bonds, and the ten-year is at 1.210.  This sense of caution or possibly even fear is a combination of concern around inflation and also the impending impact of the Delta variant of COVID.  Analyst Bryan Kern also notes that the market is still trading on technicals. “Our next Fibonacci retracement level is a 1.18, so we're only a few basis points away from that,” says Bryan. Lock In Rates Or Refinance Loans Rob reiterated the message he's delivered to borrowers in the last couple of episodes. “No matter what we see or what we discuss, it's still a very bright time to think about refinancing or locking in rates. “What we're facing then is rates that are at an all time low. We're not quite sure why, other than we feel that the Fed believes that this is just a blip and that inflation is going to calm itself and consumption is going to calm itself and we're all going to go back to regular happy, but time will tell,” observes Rob, adding that he believes current conditions are short term.  Jay adds that the volumes being traded in the Cap market are down, noting that this shows borrowers are grabbing longer-term rates. GDP Slightly Lower Than Forecast The Thirty Capital team note that GDP will be slightly lower than originally forecasted, although it's still incredibly robust.  Thirty Capital's Forecast For The Fourth Quarter The team gives its predictions for rates in the fourth quarter or 2021. Analyst Jason Kelley says that in a recent article it noted that the ten-year forecast is still 2.6 percent. “So having a 10-year forecast for inflation at 2.6 percent and a ten-year Treasury at 1.2 just doesn't make sense and at some point the market is going to close that gap really fast,” he predicts. Listen to the full episode for team member's predictions on rates in the fourth quarter of this year!

On this week's episode, we talk about how June 2021 was a historic month in stocks and speculate on how did this particular historic event happened. We also talk about the inflation front on shipping containers, the latest on the Producer Price Index (PPI), and the Biden administration enforcing new executive orders that could effect big businesses.   Harrison Johnson calls in to explain the different tax situations in each state.   As always, we take your calls and analyze the stocks that you want to talk about.

This week has provided investors with a fresh batch of data carrying the potential to heavily affect the inflation debate. Tuesday brought us the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, while Wednesday saw the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) for June as well as the start of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's two-day testimony to Congress providing an update on the economy.So has any of this materially changed our view (or the Fed's) on the great inflation debate? Brian explains. Ford Financial Group on FacebookFord Financial Group on YouTubeQuestions?Find us at FordFG.comEmail us at info@fordfg.comMusic:Cold Funk - Funkorama by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license. Source. Tracking ID: # 1-05168416

According to the Labor Department, over the past year, used car and truck prices leaped 45% while car and truck rental costs skyrocketed 87%. Today's Stocks & Topics: CRSR - Corsair Gaming Inc., URNM - NorthShore Global Uranium Mining ETF, GILT - Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd., GPI - Group 1 Automotive Inc., RBLX - Roblox Corp., T - AT&T Inc., Inflation, SPCE - Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc., Producer Price Index (PPI), Support Levels, AEM - Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., Restaurants, WFG - West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd., DDD - 3D Systems Corp., U.S.-China Maritime Agreement.  TRIVIA QUESTION: "What is the AVERAGE retirement age in the United States? And what is the minimum 'nest egg' you need to retire in any U.S. state?"Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

The July 4 weekend kicked off what Thirty Capital CEO Rob Finlay described as a "crazy week," with a big drop in Treasury yields. Rob repeated what he said in the last episode that this is a time for borrowers to lock in deals before inflation increases borrowing rates. Thirty Capital Analyst Bryan Kern observed that the market seems to agree with the Feds—that inflation is transitory, and tapering of quantitative easing may not be in the cards for 2021. "On the week, we're only really down eight basis points, but there's definitely a trend of Treasury buying," says Brian. "We've got a ten-year Treasury option, so we'll see how that goes." 'PERFECT OPPORTUNITY' BEFORE INFLATION RISES Rob believes that market conditions make it difficult to identify emerging inflation. He says this is a perfect opportunity for borrowers before the cost of money becomes expensive. Current conditions are, says Rob, "Short-term. This is all just smoke and mirrors. "We're trading say 20 to 30 basis points below our 100-day, 50-day moving averages. It's just now we're getting very close to the 200-day. "I think this is short-term. This is a perfect opportunity right now before people start to realize that we do have inflation, and it's not just small stuff. You can go around and see stuff that costs more." THIS WEEK'S INDICES WILL IDENTIFY INFLATION Bryan continues: "Folks who are looking at inflation who don't think it's there, we'll definitely find out this week. "We've got the Comparative Tracking Index (CTI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and retail sales due to report this week." In addition, all eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to deliver the Fed's semi-annual report to Congress on the state of the U.S. economy starting on Wednesday. POLICY DELAY WHILE FEDS GRAPPLE WITH DATA Rob thinks policy makers are kicking the can until they figure out what exactly is going on with the economy. "They don't want to do anything with the policy," says Rob. "I think they're trying to figure out what's going on. Is it short-term supply and demand issues? Is it people getting back to work? People getting back to work?" LONG SLOG OF SLOW GROWTH AHEAD Analyst Jay Saunders says the markets are responding to the Fed sounding a little bit more hawkish. "This is the market saying that it doesn't believe we're in for long-term inflation concerns. And the Fed is going to do what it needs to do to hit those off. And likely we're getting back into a long slog of slow growth and low inflation that we had prior to COVID," explains Jay. "But yes, seeing the ten-year drop through the 150 level and just keep on falling is a little concerning." In this episode, the Thirty Capital analysts also discuss: Whether the Fed will bail out residential homes facing foreclosure Overseas banks initiating tapering Construction activity Supply and demand issues.

一週財經聚焦 一、6月8日，美國參議院高票通過《美國創新與競爭法》（USICA），將投入2500億美元加速美國的人工智慧、半導體晶片和量子運算等新興技術產業的發展，除了希望維持美國科技技術強國的地位，更希望能與中國的科技相抗衡。 我們要怎麼看待這個全球產業的地緣新政治？ 國際媒體相關報導 ●CNBC：〈Senate passes $250 billion bipartisan tech and manufacturing bill aimed at countering China〉(參議院通過旨在對抗中國的2500億美元的兩黨科技和製造業法案) ●Reuters路透社：〈U.S. Senate advances sweeping tech bill taking aim at China〉(美國參議院推動針對中國的全面科技法案) ●Economist經濟學人：〈Doves become hawks〉(鴿派變鷹派)；小標：〈A big shift among China-watchers〉(中國觀察家間的一個大轉變) 分析解讀 仔細去看《美國創新與競爭法》的內容，我們可以發現它建立在一項名為《EFA無盡邊疆法》（Endless Frontier Act）的提案之上，是拜登政府上台以來的重大法案之一，更是延續了4月21日國會山莊裡一項名為SCA《Strategic Competition Act 戰略競爭法》的法案。這是共和、民主兩黨難得有共識通過的法案，希望能讓美國在激烈的技術競爭中，仍能領導產業超越創新、超越生產，並在競爭中超越世界。 贊同《美國創新與競爭法》的議員多半認為，如果不能擴大美國的半導體生產或改變稀土供應鏈，將可能使美國在未來幾年處於戰略劣勢。因此將根據法案，不僅將協助晶片製造商與各州各地方政府協調建廠所需的土地資金，更將提供520億美元，推動美國半導體的研發製造。 《美國創新與競爭法》也將提供1900億美元，支持美國國家科學基金會等學術機構的研究發展，同時也向美國各地區撥款100億美元，建立新的技術中心，並鼓勵科技公司在矽谷和東西兩岸以外的地方設立據點，創造更多高科技產業的就業機會。 雖然有人認為，這項法案在一定程度上被當作就業計劃來推銷，但圍繞著法案表決的辯論，卻有不少帶有冷戰色彩的語言，並且發出警告：如果不採取行動，美國將會危險地依賴其最大的地緣政治對手。 紐約州民主黨參議員、參議院多數黨領袖Chuck Schumer，最近在參議院全體會議上就警告：世界各地的威權主義政府嗅到了進攻機會。他們認為，像美國這樣的爭吵不休的民主政府，在投資國家優先事項上，不可能像自上而下、中央集權和威權政府那樣團結。由此可見，美國現階段的憂慮感是前所未有的。 我也注意到，這項法案裡避免使用「產業政策」這個詞，因為他們知道，該詞會重新引發一場30年之久的辯論：「是否由政府來挑選贏家和輸家，或是否要支持某些行業而非其他行業。」 這場辯論可追溯到雷根(Reagan)政府時期。當時，美國半導體和汽車行業面臨的最大威脅是日本，當時聯邦政府開始了一些小規模的計劃，包括為重振半導體行業制定的，名為「Sematech」的計劃。 「這項法案意味著我們將對量子計算、人工智慧、生物醫學研究，或存儲技術進行投資，然後由私營部門將知識轉化、創造就業，這些都是我們需要做研究的主導領域，有工業增長潛力的領域。它們將帶來巨大的就業增長。」Chuck Schumer說到。 這次與20世紀80年代那場辯論的差異是，當年日本既是工業競爭對手，也是軍事盟友，而現在，中國是正在崛起的地緣政治對手，這就改變了對峙的性質。在20世紀80年代，沒有人會擔心日本會將自己最大的企業作為監控工具或潛在的戰爭武器來使用，但對中國來說，所有的擔心都有可能。 這項法案最引人注目的地方，是其資助的項目與中國的《中國製造2025》非常類似。中國政府六年前宣佈的《中國製造2025》計劃，將巨額政府開支投入到尋求不依賴外部供應商的技術行業。 對於這項法案，川普當時是大力反對的。這項立法可能會加快全球第一大(美國)和第二大經濟體(中國)之間的脫鉤。北京擔心，中國將在未來幾年裡，在最先進的晶片和尖端軟體上依賴外國技術；華盛頓也有類似的擔憂，擔心中國在5G技術上的主導地位，將賦予北京切斷美國電信技術的能力。 事實上，拜登在政策上鮮少沿襲前任總統川普，而對中貿易是少數意見一致的領域。他保留川普對北京制訂的關稅、擴大中國企業黑名單後，為維持美國競爭優勢，現在還要國會通過研發投資計畫。 美國創新及競爭法已獲參院通過，我認為觀察重點在下列幾項： 一、 關乎哪些領域？ 拜登和川普都主張把製造業工作從海外帶回美國，尤其是半導體與醫療器材等具戰略性的產業，但北京似已贏得這場製造戰。隨著6年前展開的「中國製造2025」計畫，北京甚至還想主掌明日的科技。因此，美國現在改弦易轍，追求的是一個範圍較局限的目標：捍衛美國產業與科技公司的領導地位。 民主與共和兩黨都擔心北京在5G方面的進展，可能危及國安，對貿易機密與個資帶來威脅，或是讓惡意行為者得以破壞網路。 二、黑名單 川普以國安為由，禁止電訊商購買被認為有風險企業的零件。川普的命令特別針對中國科技巨擘華為，而上週，拜登不僅擴大了禁止與美國做生意的企業名單，並修訂川普原本的行政命令，將涉及監控技術的公司納入其中。 三、關稅 在川普任內，美國對中國進口商品課徵數以千億美元的懲罰性關稅，拜登並未解除這些關稅，其貿易代表戴琪甚至不諱言，這些做法都是為了施壓北京。 四、和中國的類似之處 中國補貼企業並大幅挹注投資，美國今天通過的創新及競爭法作法如出一轍，是以提振國內就業為目標。未來5年間，美國政府將投資520億美元，鼓勵半導體製造與科技研發，另15億美元則作為開發5G技術之用。「利用國家資本主義」這一點，美中皆然。 五、未來會如何發展？ 在川普任內，美中關係日益惡化，但經濟仍密切連結。在疫情與貿易戰雙重因素之下，兩國商務往來已受影響，下一個問題，將是世界前兩大經濟體要如何開始真正脫鉤。 我覺得比較值得注意的是，川普一直希望一個美中商業世界的脫離，所以川普就任期間，經常在做著抨擊中國的事情，只有偶爾會稱贊一下習近平。 這種口是心非的兩手做法已經是他執政的一個特徵。 但由他的貿易代表Robert Lighthizer和國務卿Mike Pompeo為代表的對華鷹派更已經把鴿派的影響力壓制了下去。 回想尼克森（Richard Nixon）於1972年2月對北京進行著歷史性的訪問時，他曾經向毛澤東保證，中美兩國都沒有制定全球的霸權計劃，這意味著儘管彼此之間存在分歧，他們仍可以共同努力去找到共同點。 尼克森之行不僅標誌著美國與中國的關係發生了轉變，而且標誌著美國解析中國的重心也發生了變化。 中國觀察家抱著一種鴿派的假設，那就是中國對美國沒有威脅，並希望彼此的約定意味著它會變得越來越像美國。 經過半個世紀，這種平衡已經轉而向著鷹派看法轉移，就像在冷戰時那樣，它變成一種意識形態的競爭。現在的中美關係是自尼克森進入中國以來五十年間最彼此尖銳對峙的一刻。 一位曾對幾個美國總統提供中國意見的前政府官員這樣說道：今天，想成為對中國態度的鷹派不需要勇氣，但不想成為對中國鷹派的一員反而需要勇氣。許多人在華盛頓看見了一個期待新冷戰的氣氛，像川普一樣，拜登現在的官員談論的是與中國的「戰略競爭」，而不再是合作。 在美國及其全球的民主盟友之間，針對中國的鷹派情緒也越來越高漲，對中國強硬將越來越受到歡迎。美國看待中國的看法已經截然不同，再也沒有人認為中國是一個貧窮而需要幫助的可憐國家，越來越多的人一口咬定中國就是一個有錢而且窮凶惡極的壞人。但讓溫和派甚至一些鷹派擔心的是，如果中國認定了拜登政府其實和川普一樣會處處壓制中國，那它將如何因應？尼克森對華開放的戰略意義在於當時他們有一個共同的敵人，那就是蘇維埃聯盟。 但現在的美國和中國只剩下彼此了。 二、6月9日，中國公佈了5月份消費者物價指數（CPI）年增1.3%，是近8個月高點；受原物料價格高漲影響，工業生產者物價指數（PPI）則年增了9%，更創下了逾12年半高點。通貨膨脹真的像美國官員認為的無關痛癢？還是其實灰犀牛已經慢慢成型？ 國際媒體相關報導 ●FT：〈China's producer prices rise at fastest pace in 13 years〉(中國生產者價格以13年來最快速度上漲)；小標：〈Soaring commodity prices drive PPI up 9% in May, stoking global inflation concerns〉(大宗商品價格飆升推動 5 月份 PPI 上漲 9%，引發全球通脹擔憂) ●CNBC：〈Chinese factories worried about profits face a record gap between rising production costs and〉(selling prices擔心利潤不佳的中國工廠面臨生產成本與銷售價格之間的創紀錄差距) ●WSJ：〈China's Surging Manufacturing Prices Put Pressure on Beijing to Do Something About Them〉(中國不斷上漲的製造業價格讓北京不得不採取一些行動) 分析解讀 中國國家統計局在官網公佈，5月份工業生產者物價指數（PPI）年增9%，超出市場預期的8.5%，創2008年10月以來最大升幅。月增1.6%，升幅也比4月擴大0.7個百分點，大宗商品加價帶動工業品價格繼續上升。 中國統計局城市司高級統計師董莉娟表示，國際原油、鐵礦石、有色金屬等大宗商品價格大幅上升，國內需求穩定恢復，工業品價格繼續上升。 生產物價指數（Producer Price Index，簡稱PPI）是一個用來衡量製造商出廠價格的平均變化的指數，它是統計部門收集和整理的若干個物價指數中的一個。如果生產物價指數比預期數值高時，表明有通貨膨脹的風險。如果生產物價指數比預期數值低時，則表明有通貨緊縮的風險。 通貨膨脹指某個經濟體中商品和服務的成本上漲。這轉而意味著該經濟體每一單位貨幣值得的商品或服務減少，通貨膨脹亦可視為貨幣貶值，也有人說「錢不值錢」。而我對通貨膨脹的定義就是：當你感覺東西不趕緊買會越來越貴的時候就是Inflation；而當你感覺價格會下跌幹嘛急著買，那就是deflation，所以預期扮演非常重要的角色。 無獨有偶，六月10日，美國勞工部今（10）報告稱，由於美國通膨壓力持續增加，5月份的CPI（消費者物價指數）年增率達5%，創近 13 年以來最快增幅。 所以也在六月10日，我們看見德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）發表了警告，世界正在經歷 40 年來經濟最大的方向轉變，未來幾年全球經濟將出現毀滅性通膨上升，將波及地球每個角落，對人們生活造成嚴重破壞。德銀擔心通脹捲土重來的時間點在 2023 年，不斷上漲的價格會觸動每個人，尤其對社會最弱勢的群體帶來毀滅性影響。報告指出，低／穩定通膨和歷史低利率是過去三年宏觀政策的黏合劑，這種情況未來一兩年內會開始瓦解，政策制定者將面臨自 1980 年代以來最具挑戰性的年代。 接著，WSJ華爾街日報也來湊熱鬧，報導認為中國大陸南部繁忙的港口，爆發一波碼頭工人感染潮，已耽擱全球海運作業；染疫風暴也籠罩台灣和馬來西亞的半導體供應鏈，加劇全球汽車和科技產業遭遇的晶片缺貨情況。若是問題遲遲無法化解，不僅大陸、美國等地的通膨氣焰將愈發熾熱，也可能打擊全球經濟成長。 前國際貨幣基金學院（IMF Institute）院長Leslie Lipschitz最近撰文，從以下幾個層面，詳細剖析各種可能的通膨情境對經濟有何意義： 良性的通膨展望 第一個問題是，通膨會升到什麼地步？未來幾年通膨年增率是會升到4%左右，然後就降下來？或者，有理由擔心聯準會（Fed）可能控制不了工資上漲螺旋，類似1970年代和1980年代初期的情況，導致通膨率竄升到二位數？ 如果是第一種結果，沒什麼理由驚慌。通膨率溫和、短暫地攀升，可能促進相對價格和工資的調整，反映供應稀缺性和需求的結構性轉變。 再者，通膨也是解決政府債務過多問題的一種方法——形同對債權人徵稅。債務的名目利率通常是固定的，通膨率升高有助於壓低實質利率，償債壓力將隨之減輕。 這顯然是Fed所預見的通膨情況，背後依據的看法是：工資溫和調漲令人樂觀其成，而工資和通膨預期仍會受數十年來始終低迷不振的低通膨抑制，李普希茲認為，這是良性的通膨展望，看似言之成理。 惡性的通膨展望 但最近的數據令人吃驚。主要經濟指標顯示，物價顯然急遽上揚。在截至2021年4月的12個月期間，美國消費者物價指數（CPI）勁升4.2%，生產者物價指數（PPI）更躍升6.2%。 供應瓶頸普遍見於林林總總的投入品：金屬、木材、食品、半導體和包裝材料。船運成本也飆升，波羅的海乾散貨指數（Baltic Dry Index）一年來飆漲逾450%，漲到十年多來最高價位。 儘管就業人數仍遠低於新冠肺炎疫情爆發前的水準，已有證據顯示許多部門遭遇勞工短缺問題。某些投入品供應受限的情況很可能揮之不去。 此外，如果這世界真的開始朝「綠能」轉型，稀土金屬以及像鋰、鎳、石墨等礦物短缺情況勢必惡化，導致價格大幅上漲。 面對近來供應吃緊和價格暴漲，通膨預期仍舊會不動如山嗎？假如通膨預期失控，造成價格-工資螺旋，Fed有能力控制住那種局面嗎？ 1970年代的歷史教訓 回顧1970年代到1980年代初投入價格震撼和後續引發通膨的情況，有助於瞭解通膨走高可能引發什麼糟糕的後果。 在1973-1974與1979-1980期間，美國蒙受重大的貿易條件損失，與那段時期的石油價格震撼有關。這種貿易條件損失有如在海外被課稅。貿易條件損失推升消費者物價，相對物價變化對政府財政形成問題，也向受薪階級和企業主管傳達矛盾的訊息。但當時的工會力量很大，才造成了惡性通貨膨脹，今天大企業的議價權更強，應該不至於造成物價與工資循環上漲的惡性通貨膨脹。 防止令人憂心的情境發生 現在比較令人擔心的是目前美國私部門的財務槓桿率非常高，這是在多年來低利率鼓勵和Fed默許下的結果。2020年美國非金融企業的債務逼近GDP的85%，遠遠超越1970年代高峰時的53%，以及2008年金融海嘯爆發前的72%。 因此，利率若是大幅調升，可能在各行各業之間掀起一波企業債務違約潮，重創銀行和其他債權人。 美國股市目前本益比已高，對利率和獲利展望十分敏感。假如獲利展望惡化，預期收益折合成現值的折讓率又擴大，美股將承受雙重打擊，不動產市場也會遭殃。 而且政府用來抗景氣循環的政策彈藥也將用罄。貨幣政策將不得不轉向提高利率以抑制通膨。財政政策則可能更捉襟見肘，礙於政府債務佔GDP比率升到歷來非戰時最高紀錄、並隨實質利率走高而擴增，甚至風險溢價升高終會降低全球對美國公債的需求。 另外一個最大的問題在於中國會不會成為通貨膨脹輸出的最大來源？ Bloomberg今日則引述未具名消息人士報導，有鑑於夏季用電需求高漲、能源成本居高不下，北京當局考慮設限燃料煤（thermal coal）價格。當局內部討論方案之一，是設限採礦商的煤炭售價。山西省重要產煤地榆林市已開始測試售價限制的規定。另一方法是對秦皇島港的標竿售價設定每噸900~930元人民幣上限，這能對全國市場造成影響。不過消息透露，是否真要管制價格還無定論。 CNBC 今日報導，長江商學院金融教授Gan Jie表示，她的團隊上週調查超過2,000家中國工業企業查，結果發現與3月底、4月調查時相比，業者較悲觀，因成本大幅上升，預料趨勢恐延續至今年底。調查並顯示，營益率低於15%的業者佔比上升至七成。 Gan表示，企業毛利遭到壓縮，數家業者甚至拒絕接單，因為生產愈多，虧損愈大，淨利已轉負。 很容易看明白為什麼人們會擔心。 6 月 9 日中國的5 月份出廠價格正以年均 9% 的速度上漲，已經是過去十多年來的最高水平。如果再加上運輸成本的飆升和人民幣的走強，可能會整個推高從手機到床墊等所有中國製造商品的價格。 美國 在4 月份從中國進口商品的成本已經比一年前增加了 2.1%，這已經是自 2012 年以來的最快增長速度。 然而，中國出口通貨膨脹的風險可能被誇大了。中國生產者價格的上漲只有一部分反映了中國境內的因素。 其強勁的經濟復蘇是由住宅和基礎設施的投資帶動的，這才推高了鋼鐵的價格。 為了實現綠色轉型的目標，中國政府已經控制了煤炭和鋼鐵的生產能力。 官員們還誓言要打擊中國國內商品期貨的「過度投機」，並公開暗示因為期貨價格具備助漲價格的潛在風險。 相反的，大多數價格壓力反映的其實是新冠病毒籠罩的世界特殊性。 全球對消費品的需求——你可以在家中上網購買的東西——都在飆升。 中國的出口量比疫情爆發前的趨勢高出了大約 20%，工廠一直在努力跟上訂單。 全球大宗商品供應的中斷，例如限制智利和秘魯銅礦開採的封鎖措施，同步推高了價格。 相較於傳遞這個疫情衝擊，中國企業其實吸收了其中的大部分影響力。 與 2019 年底相比，在 Covid-19 襲擊全世界之前，中國的出廠價格就上漲了近 6%。 但衡量中國製成品消費者物價指數僅上漲了 0.6%。 企業不得不以更薄的利潤想方設法度日。 這是朱先生想與客戶分擔痛苦的主要原因。 而且，中美兩國的政策環境也大不相同。 美國聯准會FED大幅放鬆了貨幣政策，而中國人民銀行則相對保守了許多，甚至開始謹慎地收縮了貨幣政策。 這可能有助於解釋兩國通貨膨脹軌跡的差異。 在美國，美國聯准會FED首選的「核心」消費者價格指標（不包括食品和能源）在 4 月份同比上漲 了3.1%，這是1992 年以來的最大漲幅。在中國，核心物價指數在今年五月份僅同比上漲了0.9% 。 從長遠來看，一些分析人士認為，中國人口老齡化將轉化為通貨膨脹的力量。 在2000 年代初期，中國的低工資才讓全球各地的消費品變得更加便宜。所以他們認為勞動力供應的減少和工資的上漲應該會產生相反的通貨膨脹助漲效果。 但這其實不是一個明確的判斷邏輯。 低端製造業已經轉移到了像越南和孟加拉國等更便宜的區域，而中國本身自動化的快速增長也有幫忙抑制了成本價格的上漲。 不過，現在最急迫的問題還是中國的投入要素價格通貨膨脹到底只是暫時的還是有可能更加持久？經濟學人認為答案其實在中國以外。 隨著疫苗的推出越來越受到了歡迎，加上美國和歐洲慢慢恢復了更接近正常的生活，人們可能會在旅遊和外出就餐等服務上花費的更多，而不會繼續靠著在網上購買商品過生活，這將緩解大宗商品的上漲壓力，然後慢慢緩解掉中國工廠面臨的壓力。 所以問題很可能爆發在中國以外，美國Wells Fargo經濟學家也表示，「現在每個人都在試圖提高價格，危機之前很少出現這種情況。」但特殊情況是，現在消費者對更高通膨的容忍度比其他時候要高，原因是有很多額外儲蓄，但如果消費者和企業繼續預期更高通膨，那麼真正的通膨可能會到來。 因為接下來勞工可能會要求加薪，企業會提高價格，造成通膨長期超過美聯儲 2% 的年度目標，並可能迫使央行提前加息，但富國銀行認為這個故事還需至少一年醞釀。 但目前全球面臨的共同問題就是供應鏈難題，或許美國國際金融協會（Institute of International Finance）首席經濟學家Robin Brooks的話最適合作為總結： 越來越多國家都苦惱於供應中斷、運輸問題、交貨延遲的問題，這早晚將導致各公司不得不提高價格以補償。 《經濟學人》總評 封面故事 經濟學人在這期的封面上讓我們看見的是一個向下傾斜的綠色玻璃瓶，瓶里塞著的是一堆亂七八糟糾纏在一起的太陽能板和風力發電機組。封面上方兩排黑色字體，大字寫的是：Bunged up 堵住了。小字則是：How the green boom could get stuck 綠色繁榮是如何陷入困境的？ 緒論第一篇第11頁

(0:28) - Markets opened lower following the release of a slew of economic data, most notably the Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales. PPI showed major increases across the board, including a 6.6% increase year over year.(13:06) - Ema David of the Armstrong Advisory Group joined the show to take a deep dive into the retail sales numbers, which included a 1.3% decline in the month of May vs. expectations of a 0.6% drop.(26:08) - Lumber prices are falling fast from their peak of $1,711.20 a month ago, as many who were hoarding the commodity scramble to sell and unload it.(34:42) - Well-known mall stores such as Express, J.Crew, and Urban Outfitters have begun selling their products in many places online. One place they are not operating: Amazon.

A mixed economic outlook, fallout from the pipeline cyber attack, and chip shortages are all leaving investors uncertain about the future. And for commercial real estate, the question continues to be whether to select floating or fixed rates, or simply ride out the uncertainty. The answer depends on your outlook, says Thirty Capital advisor Jay Saunders. “If you're  planning on holding assets, it's unarguable that long-term rates are attractive. But we see anecdotally a lot of folks going into floating rate debt at the moment.” Thirty Capital CEO Rob Finlay agrees, noting a degree of nearsightedness, based on longer position. Rob says: “You can look at an absolute coupon . . .  but a long-term debt actually provides a lot on a risk-adjusted return basis. To me, these are very good and strong opportunities. The calculation volumes on Thirty Capital's website have doubled in the last week, indicating people are definitely feeling things. Says Rob: “Right now, I don't think you could go wrong. It's either low floating rate or low fixed rate.” Rob cautions that it may well be a different story after Q2. He anticipates that when Q2 figures arrive later in the year, businesses will be reporting peak earnings for 2021. But it could be downhill from there if inflation takes off and interest rates increase in response to increasing costs. Analyst Jason Kelley believes that the Fed will have a lot to do on the tapering side before short-term rates start going up. “On the short side of the curve, we're going to wait and see, and we think the market is probably a little overpriced.” In the next few days, all eyes will be on figures from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for an answer to what's happening with inflation. Analyst Bryan Kern says employment stats and worker shortages are capturing headlines at the moment. The employment report anticipated an additional one million hires in April; yet only 266,000 workers were hired. In stark contrast, companies across the US are complaining about a shortage of workers. Yet there's still an abundance of unemployed people. Observes Bryan: “I think many workers make more on unemployment benefits than they would by going back to work. There was an  article in The [Wall Street] Journal  this weekend, which said several states are going to tighten unemployment reporting requirements.” In some states, access to federal pandemic unemployment payments will end all together soon.

Rob Black talks Us-China Tariff actions, Producer Price Index (PPI), and Fiverr!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.