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Market Insights and Sovereign Debt Discussion - Dividend Cafe In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the recent market movements following a significant rise due to a delay in tariffs on the EU. He covers the Richmond Fed survey results, FOMC meeting minutes, and the implications of long-term sovereign debt yields, particularly from Japan. Brian also breaks down the ownership of US Treasury debt and the impact of foreign investments. Looking ahead, he previews upcoming economic data releases, including Q1 GDP, jobless claims, pending home sales, and PCE data. Listeners are briefed on the market's current status and forthcoming economic indicators. 00:00 Introduction and Market Recap 00:35 Economic Calendar and Market Sentiment 00:51 Impact of Trade Announcements 01:55 Sovereign Debt and Treasury Holdings 03:46 Japan's Debt and Yield Curve Control 05:43 Upcoming Economic Data and Conclusion Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
The market forecast and founder of Armstrong Economics, Martin Armstrong, joins us for an explosive, no-holds-barred conversation on the looming global recession, the hidden crises of sovereign debt, and the rise of digital currencies as tools for government control. In this eye-opening interview, Martin delivers his bold forecast for the economy through 2028, dives into the untold story behind the euro's troubled birth, and exposes the risks of capital controls and digital currencies in a world of escalating geopolitical tensions.#DigitalCurrency #DebtCrisis #globalrecession ---------------------
Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, says she is minimizing geopolitical inputs right now because it's impossible to make investment decisions around uncertainty. She says it's particularly important right now to focus on fundamentals and what's real — "We're investing in companies not countries" — and she is not buying the long-term hype on Europe because she says the recent rally doesn't have a strong foundation to stand on. That's one of four interviews from FutureProof Citywide in Miami Beach for today's show. Chuck also talks emerging markets and global income investing with Dan Shaykevich, head of Multi Sector Strategy, co-head of Emerging Markets and Sovereign Debt with Vanguard, discusses the evolution of new financial products with Alec Davis, head of enterprise reporting at Pitchbook, and covers the stock market and being a patient investor in impatient times with Eddy Elfenbein, editor of the Crossing Wall Street blog and portfolio strategist for the AdvisorShares Focused Equity ETF.
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Sovereign debt crises have surged since the end of the Bretton Woods system and currently threaten a lost decade for many countries across the world. Indermit Gill, in the World Bank Group's 2024 International Debt Report, describes the situation in many of the poorest countries as a ‘metastasising solvency crisis that continues to be misdiagnosed as a liquidity problem'. Despite their severe socioeconomic consequences, no comprehensive legal framework exists to address these crises—arguably the most significant gap in international economic law.This lecture, based on Dr Karina Patrício Ferreira Lima's forthcoming book Governing Sovereign Debt Crises: The Case for International Sovereign Insolvency Law (Hart Publishing), makes the case for creating such a mechanism under international law. The book challenges prevailing narratives that attribute sovereign debt crises solely to debtor states' mismanagement or misfortunes, instead arguing that sovereign insolvency is a systemic feature of the international monetary system. Current solutions—voluntary, ad hoc, and fragmented—fail to equitably allocate losses across an increasingly diversified sovereign creditor base, leaving many creditors worse off. At the same time, debtor states and their populations remain vulnerable to macroeconomic crises and enduring austerity, which often lead to long-term economic stagnation.The book adopts a legal political economy approach to illustrate how power asymmetries among stakeholders and the absence of enforceable rules perpetuate inefficiencies and inequities in resolving sovereign debt crises. Drawing on the legal theory of finance, insolvency law, and common resource governance theory, it illustrates how these governance failures result in a dual tragedy: a tragedy of the commons and a tragedy of the anticommons. The lecture will also examine the growing complexity of sovereign debt markets, including the diversification of creditor types, the erosion of ‘gentlemen's agreements,' and the limitations of initiatives like the Paris Club and the G20's Common Framework for debt treatments. It concludes by arguing that only international sovereign insolvency rules can resolve the delays, inefficiencies, and inequities that plague sovereign debt restructuring, while exploring avenues for implementing such a proceeding and discussing the role of domestic law in a well-functioning international sovereign debt architecture.Dr Karina Patrício Ferreira Lima is a Senior Lecturer at the University of Leeds. Her research focuses on the intersection of law, finance, and sovereign debt within the broader context of global economic governance. Her research portfolio covers the legal governance of sovereign debt crises, the law and policy of international financial institutions, and the macroeconomic impact of financial law and regulation.Dr Patrício advises public entities, NGOs, and leading law firms on various aspects of financial and monetary law, including sovereign debt restructuring, financial regulation, and the governance of international financial institutions. Her work has been recognised with prestigious awards, including the 2022 Society of International Economic Law-Hart Prize and the 2022 John H. Jackson Prize, conferred by the Journal of International Economic Law. She also serves as a peer reviewer for top law and social sciences journals globally.
Sovereign debt crises have surged since the end of the Bretton Woods system and currently threaten a lost decade for many countries across the world. Indermit Gill, in the World Bank Group's 2024 International Debt Report, describes the situation in many of the poorest countries as a ‘metastasising solvency crisis that continues to be misdiagnosed as a liquidity problem'. Despite their severe socioeconomic consequences, no comprehensive legal framework exists to address these crises—arguably the most significant gap in international economic law.This lecture, based on Dr Karina Patrício Ferreira Lima's forthcoming book Governing Sovereign Debt Crises: The Case for International Sovereign Insolvency Law (Hart Publishing), makes the case for creating such a mechanism under international law. The book challenges prevailing narratives that attribute sovereign debt crises solely to debtor states' mismanagement or misfortunes, instead arguing that sovereign insolvency is a systemic feature of the international monetary system. Current solutions—voluntary, ad hoc, and fragmented—fail to equitably allocate losses across an increasingly diversified sovereign creditor base, leaving many creditors worse off. At the same time, debtor states and their populations remain vulnerable to macroeconomic crises and enduring austerity, which often lead to long-term economic stagnation.The book adopts a legal political economy approach to illustrate how power asymmetries among stakeholders and the absence of enforceable rules perpetuate inefficiencies and inequities in resolving sovereign debt crises. Drawing on the legal theory of finance, insolvency law, and common resource governance theory, it illustrates how these governance failures result in a dual tragedy: a tragedy of the commons and a tragedy of the anticommons. The lecture will also examine the growing complexity of sovereign debt markets, including the diversification of creditor types, the erosion of ‘gentlemen's agreements,' and the limitations of initiatives like the Paris Club and the G20's Common Framework for debt treatments. It concludes by arguing that only international sovereign insolvency rules can resolve the delays, inefficiencies, and inequities that plague sovereign debt restructuring, while exploring avenues for implementing such a proceeding and discussing the role of domestic law in a well-functioning international sovereign debt architecture.Dr Karina Patrício Ferreira Lima is a Senior Lecturer at the University of Leeds. Her research focuses on the intersection of law, finance, and sovereign debt within the broader context of global economic governance. Her research portfolio covers the legal governance of sovereign debt crises, the law and policy of international financial institutions, and the macroeconomic impact of financial law and regulation.Dr Patrício advises public entities, NGOs, and leading law firms on various aspects of financial and monetary law, including sovereign debt restructuring, financial regulation, and the governance of international financial institutions. Her work has been recognised with prestigious awards, including the 2022 Society of International Economic Law-Hart Prize and the 2022 John H. Jackson Prize, conferred by the Journal of International Economic Law. She also serves as a peer reviewer for top law and social sciences journals globally.
Sovereign debt crises have surged since the end of the Bretton Woods system and currently threaten a lost decade for many countries across the world. Indermit Gill, in the World Bank Group's 2024 International Debt Report, describes the situation in many of the poorest countries as a ‘metastasising solvency crisis that continues to be misdiagnosed as a liquidity problem'. Despite their severe socioeconomic consequences, no comprehensive legal framework exists to address these crises—arguably the most significant gap in international economic law.This lecture, based on Dr Karina Patrício Ferreira Lima's forthcoming book Governing Sovereign Debt Crises: The Case for International Sovereign Insolvency Law (Hart Publishing), makes the case for creating such a mechanism under international law. The book challenges prevailing narratives that attribute sovereign debt crises solely to debtor states' mismanagement or misfortunes, instead arguing that sovereign insolvency is a systemic feature of the international monetary system. Current solutions—voluntary, ad hoc, and fragmented—fail to equitably allocate losses across an increasingly diversified sovereign creditor base, leaving many creditors worse off. At the same time, debtor states and their populations remain vulnerable to macroeconomic crises and enduring austerity, which often lead to long-term economic stagnation.The book adopts a legal political economy approach to illustrate how power asymmetries among stakeholders and the absence of enforceable rules perpetuate inefficiencies and inequities in resolving sovereign debt crises. Drawing on the legal theory of finance, insolvency law, and common resource governance theory, it illustrates how these governance failures result in a dual tragedy: a tragedy of the commons and a tragedy of the anticommons. The lecture will also examine the growing complexity of sovereign debt markets, including the diversification of creditor types, the erosion of ‘gentlemen's agreements,' and the limitations of initiatives like the Paris Club and the G20's Common Framework for debt treatments. It concludes by arguing that only international sovereign insolvency rules can resolve the delays, inefficiencies, and inequities that plague sovereign debt restructuring, while exploring avenues for implementing such a proceeding and discussing the role of domestic law in a well-functioning international sovereign debt architecture.Dr Karina Patrício Ferreira Lima is a Senior Lecturer at the University of Leeds. Her research focuses on the intersection of law, finance, and sovereign debt within the broader context of global economic governance. Her research portfolio covers the legal governance of sovereign debt crises, the law and policy of international financial institutions, and the macroeconomic impact of financial law and regulation.Dr Patrício advises public entities, NGOs, and leading law firms on various aspects of financial and monetary law, including sovereign debt restructuring, financial regulation, and the governance of international financial institutions. Her work has been recognised with prestigious awards, including the 2022 Society of International Economic Law-Hart Prize and the 2022 John H. Jackson Prize, conferred by the Journal of International Economic Law. She also serves as a peer reviewer for top law and social sciences journals globally.
After last week's ACFM on the meaning and morality of personal debt, Keir and Nadia zoom out to the macroeconomics of debt. Joining them to make sense of concepts like sovereign debt, structural adjustment and international ratings agencies is Heidi Chow, executive director of Debt Justice. She explains how and why countries borrow money, why […]
After last week's ACFM on the meaning and morality of personal debt, Keir and Nadia zoom out to the macroeconomics of debt. Joining them to make sense of concepts like sovereign debt, structural adjustment and international ratings agencies is Heidi Chow, executive director of Debt Justice. She explains how and why countries borrow money, why […]
Sri Lanka's New MFC Clause — Have "Contorts" Arrived in Sovereign Debt? The doctrine of tortious interference with contracts is one of several that sits at the intersection of tort and contract law. These "contorts" confuse law students — lawyers and law professors too! — but can be important in practice. If not anticipated, they can create problems for unsuspecting parties and lawyers. Has Sri Lanka's novel Most Favored Creditor clause created problems for creditors who participated in the country's restructuring? The MFC clause is confusing in places. It simultaneously seems to contemplate Sri Lanka striking a deal with holdouts (after litigation ends) and to quite aggressively try to prevent such a deal from happening. We discuss whether this creates risks for restructuring creditors and wonder why such an aggressive clause was viewed as necessary. Producer: Leanna Doty "Shades of Spring" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Bond yields rising as central banks cut rates. Canadian housing faces rising defaults in new construction space. China’s bond market flashes red, awaiting giant stimulus. Start an investment portfolio that's built to perform with Neighbourhood Holdings. Visit www.neighbourhoodholdings.com/looniehour to learn more!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Episode 4: Bond Beats In this episode of Bond Beats, Cecil Quillen (partner) and Erin McKeown (managing associate) welcome Gregory Makoff, a senior fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at the Harvard Kennedy School and an expert on sovereign debt management. Together, we discuss key aspects of New York's proposed legislative reforms, their implications for low-income countries, and the broader impact on international capital markets. Gregory also gives insights from his recent book, “Default: The Landmark Court Battle Over Argentina's $100 Billion Debt Restructuring”, which chronicles Argentina's restructuring litigation in the New York courts. To listen to all episodes in the Bond Beats series, visit our website.
Linklaters – Payments Monthly – Our view on payments law and regulation
Episode 4: Bond Beats In this episode of Bond Beats, Cecil Quillen (partner) and Erin McKeown (managing associate) welcome Gregory Makoff, a senior fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at the Harvard Kennedy School and an expert on sovereign debt management. Together, we discuss key aspects of New York's proposed legislative reforms, their implications for low-income countries, and the broader impact on international capital markets. Gregory also gives insights from his recent book, “Default: The Landmark Court Battle Over Argentina's $100 Billion Debt Restructuring”, which chronicles Argentina's restructuring litigation in the New York courts. To listen to all episodes in the Bond Beats series, visit our website.
My guest this week is a venture capitalist who goes by the pseudonym Stormy Waters. Stormy, along with many successful VCs, is predicting a sovereign debt crisis coming before summer of 2025. They are hedging their bets and funds on this prediction. In this episode, we discuss why this will happen, what has led to it, and what it may look like. Stormy says that a silver lining of this is that the Trump administration seems to at least care and seems to be equipped to handle such a crisis better than the "leadership" that the US has had in previous decades. Why is it going to be much worse for Europe than it will be for the US? We discuss it in this episode. Donate to the show here: Visit my website: Audio Production by Podsworth Media: Leave us a review and rating on iTunes! Thanks!
When, why and how do countries go bust? That's the topic of the latest New Money Review podcast, where I'm joined by Greg Makoff, a former physicist, banker, government advisor and now senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School.Makoff is the author of a recent book on what has been called “the most contentious default in history”—Argentina's 2001-2016 debt restructuring.In the podcast, we discuss:When, why and how countries go bustWhat distinguishes a sovereign insolvency from a corporate or personal bankruptcyWho has jurisdiction over sovereign defaults?What brings governments and creditors to the table?Sovereign immunity and the negotiating power between debtor and creditorWhat went wrong in Argentina's debt restructuring?How Elliott Capital Management made billions on defaulted Argentinian debtThe broader public policy lessons of Argentina's debt restructuringChina, the IMF and the geopolitics of sovereign debtDefault risk in domestic and foreign currency bondsWhy sovereign debt problems will never go away
Join Tellimer's Senior Economist Patrick Curran as he sits down with Lee Buchheit to discuss Lee's recent paper with Gregory Makoff entitled “A Better Value Recovery Mechanism for Sovereign Debt Restructurings.” Patrick also picks Lee's brain about a range of developments across the sovereign debt restructuring landscape, including the debate on comparability of treatment and recent and ongoing restructurings in Zambia, Sri Lanka, Suriname, Ethiopia, Venezuela and Lebanon. The link to Lee's paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4926056 The Emerging Markets Podcast by Tellimer – the single point of entry to EM research and data. Edited and produced by Cira Sarker. Artwork by Kristian Klamar. Check out the full Tellimer offering here. The Emerging Markets Podcast dives into a range of topics in the emerging and frontier market world including investment themes, debt restructuring, elections, and geopolitical tensions. DISCLAIMER This podcast is provided for information purposes and represents the personal opinions of the speakers. It is not an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities, nor should it be regarded as investment advice. Tellimer Limited does not offer or provide personal advice and no mention of a particular security in this podcast constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, portfolio of securities, or enter any transaction or investment strategy. Nor is any such mention an indication that any investment is suitable for any specific person.
“Canada was going in the direction of Argentina where lots of devaluation, lots of inflation,” says Rob McEwen, chief executive officer of McEwen Mining. He highlights how Canada's increasing regulatory and political challenges could potentially harm its resource industry, similar to the difficulties faced by Argentina. Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcast or Call 866-349-3310
$25 trillion ! This is the sum injected into the economy by Governments and Central Banks to protect a significant portion of the global economy during the Covid crisis. Where does this funding come from, and what are the impacts of such government spending? Is this strategy sustainable in the long term? These are important questions to consider, particularly since we are in a year where half of the world's population is heading to the polls and many candidates are advocating for a 'whatever it takes' approach.Even if we are near full employment, witnessing rising wages, have defeated the Coronavirus, and have inflation levels gradually approaching central bank objectives, let us not overlook the consequences of this approach. The massive government spending to save lives, known as 'whatever it takes,' is not without costs. As the saying goes, there‘s no such thing as a free lunch! The result? Endemic sovereign debt and budget deficits – a metaphorical portrayal of 'original sin.'In this episode of 2050 Investors, Kokou Agbo-Bloua will delve into sovereign debt sustainability and explore how governments can balance their finances amid high-interest rates while meeting the demands of voters. Joining the discussion is Anatoli Annenkov, Societe Generale's Senior Economist for Europe, who will analyse the relationship between public debt and central banks. He will explain how central banks can help stabilize sovereign debt crises and shed light on the importance of their independence.About this showWelcome to 2050 Investors, your monthly guide to understanding the intricate connections between finance, globalisation, and ESG.Join host Kokou Agbo-Bloua, Head of Economics, Cross-Asset & Quant Research at Societe Generale, for an exploration of the economic and market megatrends shaping the present and future, and how these trends might influence our progress to meeting 2050's challenging global sustainability targets.In each episode, Kokou deep-dives into the events impacting the economy, financial markets, the planet, and society. Through a magical blend of personal anecdotes, in-depth research and narratives overlaid with music, sound effects, and pop culture references, there's certainly something for everyone.Kokou also interviews industry-leading experts, personalities, entrepreneurs and even Nobel prize winners! You will learn from the best on a wide range of subjects on current affairs, market shifts, and economic developments.If you like 2050 Investors, please leave a five-star review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Your support will help us spread the word and reach new audiences. If you're seeking a brief and entertaining overview of market-related topics and their business and societal implications, subscribe now to stay informed!Previous episodes of 2050 Investors have explored ESG, climate change, AI, greenflation, globalization, plastic pollution, food, healthcare, biodiversity and more.CreditsPresenter & Writer: Kokou Agbo-Bloua. Editors: Vincent Nickelsen, Jovaney Ashman, Linda Isker & Jennifer Krumm. Production Designer: Emmanuel Minelle, Radio K7 Creative. Executive Producer : Fanny Giniès. Sound Director: Marc Valenduc. Music: Rone. Graphic Design: Cédric Cazaly.Whilst the following podcast discusses the financial markets, it does not recommend any particular investment decision. If you are unsure of the merits of any investment decision, please seek professional advice.Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.
“You must own gold in this environment. And we're going to own it until there is an honest, sound monetary system,” says Jeff Clark, editor of Paydirt Prospector. In an interview with Daniela Cambone, Clark emphasizes the importance of owning physical gold as a hedge against systemic risks until a stable monetary system is established. Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcast or Call 866-349-3310
Fed Broke Another Central Bank, Global Sovereign Debt Crisis & Financial Turmoil Coming – Ed Dowd Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News, interviews Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, who warns that the Federal Reserve finally broke something as interest rates remained at 23-year highs for over a year. Dowd explains that during this rate-hike cycle, what ended up breaking was another central bank – the Bank of Japan. He outlines the consequences of this and says the clock has started counting down towards a global debt crisis. Dowd shares his macro outlook while also weighing in on geopolitical tensions and potentially identifying the next ‘Black Swan' event. He also gives his outlook on banking, projecting more stress and consolidation in the sector. Dowd warns of a scenario that could open the door to a central bank digital currency (CBDC). He also speaks about U.S. elections, the U.S. dollar, Bitcoin and gold. This video is brought to you by Swan Bitcoin Swan Bitcoin IRA - Start Saving Now: https://Swan.com/retire Watch the video of this interview at- https://youtu.be/Cdom1Of0FMY?si=LDszleNt9-qac7ju Kitco NEWS 671K subscribers 320,909 views Aug 10, 2024 #Fed #crisis #debt Follow Michelle Makori on X: @MichelleMakori ( / michellemakori ) Follow Kitco News on X: @KitcoNewsNOW ( / kitconewsnow ) Follow Edward Dowd on X: @DowdEdward ( / dowdedward ) #Fed #economy #debt #crisis 00:00 Coming Up 01:49 Introduction: The Fed Finally Broke Something 04:01 Fed's Actions and Economic Indicators 06:09 Global Debt Crisis and Japan 09:24 Yen Carry Trade 14:60 Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Implications 23:59 Banking Sector Outlook and CBDC Concerns 29:48 CBDCs 36:55 Macro Outlook 44:14 The Future of the Dollar and De-dollarization 51:11 U.S. Elections __________________________________________________________________ Kitco News is the gold standard in precious metals, commodities, cryptocurrencies, mining, and financial news. SUBSCRIBE to our channel to stay up to date on the latest market and industry news. For breaking news, views, charts, and data on precious metals, cryptocurrencies, and financial markets - visit us at https://www.kitco.com To get market updates on the go, download the Kitco Gold Live! APP - https://applications.kitco.com Stay connected: Twitter - / kitconewsnow Instagram - / kitconews Facebook - / kitconews LinkedIn - / kitconews StockTwits - https://stocktwits.com/kitconews Live gold price and chart: https://www.kitco.com/gold-price-toda... Live silver price and chart: https://www.kitco.com/Silver-price-to... 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WHAT WE DO Pre-Born! partners with life-affirming pregnancy clinics all across the nation. We are designed to strategically impact the abortion industry through the following initiatives:… -------------------------------------------------------- Help CSI Stamp Out Slavery In Sudan Join us in our effort to free over 350 slaves. Listeners to the Eric Metaxas Show will remember our annual effort to free Christians who have been enslaved for simply acknowledging Jesus Christ as their Savior. As we celebrate the birth of Christ this Christmas, join us in giving new life to brothers and sisters in Sudan who have enslaved as a result of their faith. https://csi-usa.org/metaxas https://csi-usa.org/slavery/ Typical Aid for the Enslaved A ration of sorghum, a local nutrient-rich staple food A dairy goat A “Sack of Hope,” a survival kit containing essential items such as tarp for shelter, a cooking pan, a water canister, a mosquito net, a blanket, a handheld sickle, and fishing hooks. 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Our mission is to bring relief to the poorest of the poor in the countries where we serve. We strive to reflect God's unconditional love. It's a sacrificial love that embraces all people regardless of race or religion. We believe that we can show His love by serving the “least of these” on this earth as Christ challenged us to do in Matthew 25. We pray that by God's grace, and with your support, we can continue to bring relief to the suffering and hope to the hopeless. Report on Food For the Poor by Charity Navigator https://www.charitynavigator.org/ein/592174510 -------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer from ACU. We try to bring to our students and alumni the World's best Conservative thinkers. All views expressed belong solely to the author and not necessarily to ACU. In all issues and relations, we hope to follow the admonitions of Jesus Christ. 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The thing about sovereign debt is that if a country defaults on its loan, there are no international bankruptcy laws in place to ensure the creditors get their money back. So what happens then?Gregory Makoff, a physicist turned banker, is a fellow at Harvard Kennedy School and the author of the book, Default: The Landmark Court Battle over Argentina's $100 Billion Debt Restructuring. In this debut, Makoff tells the gripping story of Argentina's years-long court battle in the U.S. to settle a massive debt. He and Greg chat about the tricky nature of sovereign debt, the inner-workings of the Argentina case and why it took more than a decade for the debt to be settled, and the lasting impact the case has had on sovereign debt law. *unSILOed Podcast is produced by University FM.*Episode Quotes:Is the IMF failing broke countries?01:06:51: The biggest problem with most countries, for me, is going to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) too slowly because you're in a deeper hole. You have more debt. It hurts the debtors more. You need a bigger adjustment. So, for me, the IMF isn't the problem. It's countries hearing all this negative IMF theory and politics and that anti-IMF view hurts them. And so, I think they do as well as they can. They're a member organization. Are they perfect? Nobody's perfect. You work with them. That's why you need countries to understand IMF programs, how they work. They need to do their own economic models. They need to be proactive with the fund and say, we need this and that. We don't want to do this and that.Bridging differences and highlighting the role of arbitrators through 'Default'31:34: The book (Default) is really about two things. One is good-faith negotiation—getting people to settle their differences and not letting the partisans far on the left or far on the right dominate the solution. And the other one is the role of arbitrators.Why is it that we don't have an orderly process or system for sorting out government debt?102:10: The answer is the word sovereignty. And you can ask the same, similar question: well, why isn't there an international court that makes wars not happen? And it's, a country wants to go to war, you can't stop it. My country doesn't want to pay its debt. In fact, when you buy a security, a bond, or a loan from a foreign country and they don't want to pay, there's not much you can do about it.Can Argentina break free from its debt trap?33:39: What does Argentina do? It's got a big debt load again. Does it just keep defaulting? Or does it wake up someday and say, We're going to start honoring our debts? We're going to live within our means. And they elected Javier Millie. He came with a chainsaw. He said, We're going to honor contracts. It's going to hurt. But the people are exhausted by crisis of the 80s, crisis of the 90s, crisis of the 2000s, crisis of the 2010s. And they're like enough. We value financial stability more than we do short-term increased pension, increased wages. And how that plays out is incredibly important, and it's unchartered territoryShow Links:Recommended Resources:Anne Osborn KruegerInternational Monetary Fund (IMF)Elliott Investment ManagementCristina Fernández de KirchnerGuest Profile:Fellow Profile at Harvard Kennedy SchoolSocial Media Profile on XBook WebsiteHis Work:Default: The Landmark Court Battle over Argentina's $100 Billion Debt Restructuring
For decades, governments have been tapping into global sovereign debt markets to smooth ups and downs in revenue with the hope that it would help spur investment. But what happens when government borrowing fails to deliver, and the citizens are left paying the bill? Mark Aguiar says emerging market and developing economies are especially vulnerable to interest rate spikes when debt levels are high. Aguiar is the Director of the International Economics Section at Princeton University, and his research suggests that sovereign borrowing to stabilize the economy may have the opposite effect. Transcript: https://bit.ly/3yHY3T8 Read the article at IMF.org/fandd
Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. In this punchy new flash episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments, including why sovereign debt crises are back, how France is on the brink, why fiscal policy is swamping monetary policy, out-of-control State government spending, and why inflation holds the key to asset prices. This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the personal opinions of the speakers and do not represent the view of any other party. The information does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial situation of any potential listener. It does not constitute, and should not be relied on as, financial or investment advice or recommendations (expressed or implied) and it should not be used as an invitation to take up any investments or investment services. Whilst we believe that the information discussed in the podcast is correct, no warranty or representation is given to this effect, and listeners should not rely on this information when making any decisions. No responsibility can be accepted by CCII to any end users for any action taken on the basis of this information. Any performance data presented on this site is pre-fees for institutional clients that negotiate custom fee rates, and these solutions are not available to retail investors. No investment decision or activity should be undertaken without first seeking qualified and professional advice. CCII may have a financial interest in any assets discussed during the podcast. Listeners in Australia are encouraged to visit ASIC's MoneySmart website to obtain information regarding financial advice and investments.
The scaling back of expectations for the number of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve in 2024 has been a feature so far this year. As Mark points out to Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategist, such action from the Fed could boost the performance of government bonds in multi-asset portfolios, Risks to such a scenario include doubts about the sustainability of high government budget deficits. The resulting search for alternative stores of value could well continue to favour gold.For more insights, visit Viewpoint: https://viewpoint.bnpparibas-am.com/ Download the Viewpoint app: https://onelink.to/tpxq34 Follow us on LinkedIn: https://bnpp.lk/amHosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.
Jack Mallers, the CEO and founder of Strike, the global Bitcoin app, shares why he is a Bitcoin maximalist, his skepticism towards other cryptocurrencies, and his bold prediction that Bitcoin could reach $1 million. He also reveals how he lives off his Bitcoin holdings. Jack is a rare guest on my show, so don't miss this opportunity to hear from one of the biggest Bitcoin bulls! Jack Mallers: https://twitter.com/jackmallers ►► Sponsored by iTrust Capital Invest in Bitcoin, Crypto Assets & Gold with Your IRA Using iTrust Capital.
This week on The Reorg Primary View, Gregory Makoff, senior fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at the Harvard Kennedy School and author of Default: The Landmark Court Battle Over Argentina's $100 Billion Debt Restructuring, talks with Reorg's Simon Schatzberg about his view on recent proposed legislation governing sovereign debt in New York state. And as always, we also bring you our weekly summary of interesting developments in the restructuring world as well as a preview of what's on tap for this week. For more information on our latest events and webinars, visit reorg.com/resources/events-and-webinars/ Sign up for our weekly newsletter, Reorg on the Record: reorg.com/resources/reorg-on-the-record We're looking for feedback to improve the podcast experience! Please share your thoughts by taking the survey:https://www.research.net/r/Reorg_podcast_survey
In this episode of the Back to the People Podcast, Nicole Shanahan sits down with financial expert and thought leader Luke Gromen. The discussion opens with an exploration of Luke's background in global macroeconomic research and his unique approach to financial markets. As the conversation unfolds, Nicole and Luke delve into the current trends affecting the global economy, including the implications of rising national debts and shifts in geopolitical relationships. Back to the People Podcast with Nicole Shanahan
Higher safe yields in 2024 upend the old rules related to mortgage paydown. Today's Stocks & Topics: BC - Brunswick Corp., Market Wrap, CVCO - Cavco Industries Inc., BUD - Anheuser-Busch InBev S.A. ADR, Should You Pay Off Your Mortgage Early or Invest, UPS - United Parcel Service Inc. Cl B, Cathie Wood - CEO of Ark Invest, TSP Investments and Percentages, RLI - RLI Corp., IOPP - Simplify Tara India Opportunities ETF, Sovereign Debt.Our Sponsors:* Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com/* Learn more at hackerone.com* Visit eBaymotors.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by IIF's Sonja Gibbs, Managing Director and Head of Sustainability, to discuss recent legislative actions in the New York State Senate around a proposed bill on sovereign debt. Sonja and Clay discuss the contents of the bill, titled the "Sovereign Debt Sustainability Act," the overall impact of the bill should it be passed, industry reaction to the proposition, potential beneficial next steps and more.
The ceiling is the oil price above which the US debt market crumbles. The floor is the minimum price needed to grow oil supplies. The ceiling and the floor are squeezing closer and closer…This was another barn-burner of an interview you won't want to miss.
Why is “debt-trap diplomacy” nothing more than an anti-China meme? Why is the geopolitical interpretation of Chinese overseas lending wrong, and what does that suggest about US/Western estimates of China's intentions? Why do Chinese firms hate writing down unpayable debts? And why do smaller developing nations rarely benefit from international financial competition? I sat down with the great Shahar Hameiri to discuss all that and more in the latest episode of the pod.Subscribe to the Un-Diplomatic NewsletterShahar and Lee's piece, “China, International Competition, and the Stalemate in Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Beyond Geopolitics.” Shahar Hameiri and Lee Jones, Fractured China: How State Transformation is Shaping China's Rise.Deborah Brautigaum, “A critical look at Chinese ‘debt-trap diplomacy': the rise of a meme.”Shahar Hameiri and Lee Jones, “Debunking the Myth of Debt-Trap Diplomacy.”
Relevant Reports: EMEA Primary Market Wrap 2023: https://go.reorg-research.com/emea-primary-market-2023-full-year-wrap Each episode of Reorg's weekly EMEA Core Credit podcast series features detailed discussions on issues and companies across the credit lifecycle. This week's podcast includes discussions on: -Egypt's local-currency sovereign debt instruments after last week's rate hike; -Europe's care homes sector after a challenging 2023 for operators; and -The primary market, with a roundup of action that's taken place since last week. We're looking for feedback to improve the podcast experience! Please share your thoughts here: www.research.net/r/Reorg_podcast_survey For more information on our latest events and webinars: reorg.com/resources/events-and-webinars/ Sign up to our weekly newsletter Reorg on the Record: reorg.com/resources/reorg-on-the-record/ #leveragedfinance #highyield #restructuring #performingcredit #distresseddebt #debtrestructuring #leveragedloans
Relevant Reports: European Sustainability Linked Bonds and Loans Wrap - https://go.reorg-research.com/european-sustainability-linked-bonds-and-loan-wrap-2023 Each episode of Reorg's weekly EMEA Core Credit podcast series features detailed discussions on issues and companies across the credit lifecycle. This week's podcast includes discussions on: -Underperforming German nursing home care provider GHD; -The likelihood of an Egyptian sovereign default; and -The primary market, with a roundup of action that's taken place since last week. If you are not a Reorg subscriber, request access here: go.reorg-research.com/Podcast-Trial We're looking for feedback to improve the podcast experience! Please share your thoughts here: www.research.net/r/Reorg_podcast_survey For more information on our latest events and webinars: reorg.com/resources/events-and-webinars/ Sign up to our weekly newsletter Reorg on the Record: reorg.com/resources/reorg-on-the-record/ #leveragedfinance #highyield #restructuring #performingcredit #distresseddebt #debtrestructuring #leveragedloans
John is joined by Dennis Hranitzky, partner in Quinn Emanuel's Salt Lake City, New York and London Offices, Head of the firm's Sovereign Litigation practice and Co-Head of the firm's Global Asset Recovery Practice. They discuss various kinds of litigation, arbitration and collection actions against sovereign states. They discuss collection cases against sovereign states resulting from those states' default on debt instruments, the challenges faced by creditors who hold out after most creditors agree to a debt restructuring arrangement with the sovereign, recent proposed legislation any other government actionsfavoring sovereigns, the current sovereign debt crisis, and concerns about opportunistic funds who seek profit by collecting on devalued sovereign debt. They also discuss investor state arbitration generally, for example, after a company has invested in a project in a country and the country fundamentally changes the terms under which the investment was made, such as radically raising taxes as Spain did with respect to renewable energy projects after 2008. They discuss the position taken by the EU that EU courts cannot enforce arbitration awards against EU nations even when the nation entered voluntarily into an arbitration treaty and recent indications that the United States government supports the position of the EU. Finally, they discuss litigation against sovereigns unrelated to sovereign debt, such as litigation against state sponsors of terrorism including the lawsuit Quinn Emanuel recently filed against Iran on behalf of victims of the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks. Podcast Link: Law-disrupted.fmHost: John B. Quinn Producer: Alexis HydeMusic and Editing by: Alexander Rossi
This strategy fell out of favor, but it may be poised for a return. • Learn more at thriventfunds.com • Follow us on LinkedIn • Share feedback and questions with us at podcast@thriventfunds.com • Thrivent Distributors, LLC is a member of FINRA and a subsidiary of Thrivent, the marketing name for Thrivent Financial for Lutherans.
The World Bank estimates many low- and middle-income countries are at high risk of debt distress. Should they cut spending, which may increase poverty and create social unrest? Should they default on their debts, which will make it harder to access credit markets in the future? Good Authority editor Erik Voeten speaks with Princeton Professor Layna Mosley, an expert on the politics of sovereign debt, to answer these questions and more.
Gregory Makoff, author of new book Default: The Landmark Court Battle over Argentina's $100 Billion Debt Restructuring joins OMFIF US Chair Mark Sobel to discuss Argentina's nearly two-decades-long sovereign debt litigation following the 2001 default. Both review the spectacular blow-up of the Argentine economy, the litigation's timeline and the US government's role at various junctures. You can find the transcript of this podcast here.
Improving global growth and inflation dynamics are supportive for the asset class, but risks remain and a bottom-up approach will be vital for capturing the opportunities and building resilient portfolios. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
On this episode of Radio Rothbard, Ryan McMaken and Tho Bishop are joined by Peter St. Onge, an economic fellow with the Heritage Foundation and frequent Mises Wire author. With the costs of financing the national debt now exceeding the costs of military spending and major social programs, Peter explains why government spending is now a crisis the regime can't ignore. "Sovereign Debt is Eating the World" by Peter St. Onge: Mises.org/RR_160_A "There's No Easy Way Out of This Debt Spiral" by Ryan McMaken: Mises.org/RR_160_B ProfStOnge.com Claim your free book: Mises.org/RothPodFree Be sure to follow Radio Rothbard at Mises.org/RadioRothbard. Radio Rothbard mugs are now available at the Mises Store. Get yours at Mises.org/RothMug PROMO CODE: RothPod for 20% off
On this episode of Radio Rothbard, Ryan McMaken and Tho Bishop are joined by Peter St. Onge, an economic fellow with the Heritage Foundation and frequent Mises Wire author. With the costs of financing the national debt now exceeding the costs of military spending and major social programs, Peter explains why government spending is now a crisis the regime can't ignore. "Sovereign Debt is Eating the World" by Peter St. Onge: Mises.org/RR_160_A "There's No Easy Way Out of This Debt Spiral" by Ryan McMaken: Mises.org/RR_160_B ProfStOnge.com Claim your free book: Mises.org/RothPodFree Be sure to follow Radio Rothbard at Mises.org/RadioRothbard. Radio Rothbard mugs are now available at the Mises Store. Get yours at Mises.org/RothMug PROMO CODE: RothPod for 20% off
On this episode of Radio Rothbard, Ryan McMaken and Tho Bishop are joined by Peter St. Onge, an economic fellow with the Heritage Foundation and frequent Mises Wire author. With the costs of financing the national debt now exceeding the costs of military spending and major social programs, Peter explains why government spending is now a crisis the regime can't ignore. "Sovereign Debt is Eating the World" by Peter St. Onge: Mises.org/RR_160_A "There's No Easy Way Out of This Debt Spiral" by Ryan McMaken: Mises.org/RR_160_B ProfStOnge.com Claim your free book: Mises.org/RothPodFree Be sure to follow Radio Rothbard at Mises.org/RadioRothbard. Radio Rothbard mugs are now available at the Mises Store. Get yours at Mises.org/RothMug PROMO CODE: RothPod for 20% off
On this episode of Radio Rothbard, Ryan McMaken and Tho Bishop are joined by Peter St. Onge, an economic fellow with the Heritage Foundation and frequent Mises Wire author. With the costs of financing the national debt now exceeding the costs of military spending and major social programs, Peter explains why government spending is now a crisis the regime can't ignore. "Sovereign Debt is Eating the World" by Peter St. Onge: Mises.org/RR_160_A "There's No Easy Way Out of This Debt Spiral" by Ryan McMaken: Mises.org/RR_160_B ProfStOnge.com Claim your free book: Mises.org/RothPodFree Be sure to follow Radio Rothbard at Mises.org/RadioRothbard. Radio Rothbard mugs are now available at the Mises Store. Get yours at Mises.org/RothMug PROMO CODE: RothPod for 20% off
In this Episode:- Almost half of American voters reject democracy- SEC: AI will crash banks- IMF now says “transitory” inflation will last years- Biden to give billions more to World Bank- “Blockbuster” GDP fueled by debt- Sovereign Debt is eating the world- The Japanese yen is collapsingRead the full article "How they Sell Inflation" at https://www.profstonge.comFor more content like this visit www.peterstonge.com. And I'm always on Twitter as @profstongeVisit our Lead Sponsor: Unchained Keep your bitcoin secure and minimize the tax you owe on it. Use code PETER for $50 off on-boarding.Visit our Sponsor: Money Metals Investopedia ranks Money Metals as the "Best Overall" precious metals dealer — Give them a try!Disclaimer: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase, I may receive a commission at no extra cost to you.Support the show
To understand what's happening, go all the way back to the global financial crisis of 2008-09 when “quantitative easing" was first widely deployed. Today's Stocks & Topics: Earnings, BWA - BorgWarner Inc., Leveraged ETFs, YEAR - AB Ultra Short Income ETF, CLFD - Clearfield Inc., Bitcoin, New Millionaires.Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX -- On today's episode, Arthur Hayes CIO at Maelstrom Fund joins the show to explore his current macro framework and how that will impact crypto for the rest of the year & into 2024. We discuss the bursting of the sovereign debt bubble as bonds continue one of their largest sell-off's in U.S history, the dreaded bear steepener and it's impact on bank balance sheets, market liquidity & how crypto can act as a safe haven during periods of financial repression, deleveraging & inflation. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Arthur: https://twitter.com/CryptoHayes Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_ -- Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ -- Referenced In The Show: Oil: The Making of the Modern World: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/167-oil-the-making-of-the-modern-world/id1537788786?i=1000555057140 -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) The Debt Problem (05:43) The Dreaded Bear Steepener (10:56) Are U.S Banks In Trouble Again? (15:30) The Social Consequences Of Too Much Debt (20:19) DAS London Plug (21:36) Financial Repression (28:18) Trade Wars Are The Mirror Image Of Currency Wars (33:11) Blockworks Research (42:27) Bitcoin (43:15) The Crypto Bull Market (54:42) The Bitcoin Halving (56:05) Liquidity -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
On sovereign debt and taking back control. The leading candidate in Argentina's election this month wants to avoid defaulting on the country's debt at all costs. But back in 2001, after a mass revolt, Argentina reneged on its debts – one of the very rare cases over the past 70 years of unilateral default. Why are nations so eager to pay back creditors nowadays, especially when it means endless austerity and little prospect of economic development? We talk to scholar Jerome Roos about his book, Why Not Default? and discuss a range of cases: Mexico, Greece, Zambia, Sri Lanka, Ghana - and of course Argentina. We find that the old free market system used to accept that reneging on your debts was a risk creditors had to take. No longer: transnational institutions make sure that creditors get paid every time. How might countries free themselves from international financial dictatorship? For part two of the interview and the After Party, subscribe at patreon.com/bungacast Links: Why Not Default?: The Political Economy of Sovereign Debt, Jerome Roos Memoria del saqueo (Social Genocide), film on 2001 debt crisis and uprising in Argentina (many versions available online) /83/ Now It's Syrizous (episode on Syriza's defeat in Greece) The World in One Country: Greece, Jonas Kyratzes (part of ep.200)
Happy to have a long-form discussion with two of my favorites, Lawrence Lepard and Andy Schectman. We discuss: the end of the U.S. dollar's dominance the geopolitical divide taking place gold & silver markets and manipulation politics into 2024 banking collapses & equity markets the future of bitcoin & crypto Larry manages the EMA GARP Fund, a Boston based investment management firm. Their strategy is focused on providing "Monetary Debasement Insurance". He has 38 years experience and an MBA from Harvard Business School. And he likes to curse. On Twitter he is @LawrenceLepard Andy is the President & Owner of Miles Franklin Precious Metal Investments. Prior to starting Miles Franklin, Ltd. in 1989, Andrew became a Licensed Financial Planner, specializing in Swiss Franc Investments and alternative investments. At Miles Franklin Ltd., a company that has eclipsed $5 billion in sales, Andrew has developed an operation that maintains trust, collaboration, and ethical behavior, superior customer service and satisfaction to better serve their clients. He is responsible for overseeing the firm's operations and business functions; including strategy and planning, account management, finance, and new business. He is andy@milesfranklin.com on email. Subscribe to my Substack, Fringe Finance, here: http://quoththeraven.substack.com Contribute a paltry recurring donation via Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/QTRResearch One time donations can also be sent via PayPal: https://www.paypal.me/qtrresearch QTR merch is available here. You can also follow me on YouTube, and Twitter. THANK YOU TO ALL OF MY KIND PATRONS. Please show love to those who support the QTR Podcast: JM Bullion - where QTR buys gold & silver - Twitter: @JMBullion Doomberg - Subscribe 100% free - Twitter: @DoomburgT George Gammon - Rebel Capitalist Pro - Twitter: @GeorgeGammon Sang Lucci & Wall St. Jesus — The Steamroom — Twitter: @wallstjesus and @sanglucci Longest Running Supporters Max Mulvihill - Since 2/2018 Mark Heywood - Since 3/2018 Kyle Thomas - Since 4/2018 Chris Bede - Since 5/2018 Dariusz Kordonski - Since 5/2018 Chris Gerrard - Since 5/2018 Shear Luck - Since 5/2018 Founding Members Of My "FRINGE FINANCE" Column Kashumba - Since 8/2021 Randy Carder - Since 8/2021 T Gaggiotti - Since 8/2021 Jamie - Since 8/2021 A Farmer - Since 9/2021 Harvest Moon Research - Since 9/2021 John H. H. - Since 11/2021 Mark Hutchinson - Since 11/2021 Joseph K. H. - Since 10/2021 A Farmer - Since 9/2021 Tsniezyk - Since 9/2021 Chris - Since 12/2021 All podcast content is subject to this disclaimer. Chris is not an investment adviser. Listeners should always speak to their personal financial advisers. Please leave me alone.
Luke Gromen is the Founder and President of Forest for the Trees (FFTT). In this interview, we discuss how governments can navigate the first busting global debt bubble in 100 years. We talk about historical precedents: namely the Weimar Republic in the 1930s and Israel in the 1980s, and how governments may be forced to allow for a compressed period of triple-digit inflation. - - - - Israel in the mid-1980s faced an existential economic crisis. After a decade of stagnation and rising government expenditure fuelled by money printing, commercial banks started to buckle. Further, the inflation rate was skyrocketing. In 1979 it had reached 111%. By 1984 it had grown to 450%, with fears it could exceed 1,000% by the end of 1985. Despite the real risk that the sovereign debt bubble may soon burst leading to unprecedented levels of inflation, those in the west have become inured to a belief that very high rates of inflation only happen in developing countries. And yet, the experience of hyperinflation in an advanced democratic country was felt much more recently than most people think. It is important therefore to consider the lessons from Israel's inflationary crisis of the 1980s. The policies enacted by Israel to mitigate the situation were socially bruising. Markets were liberalised, government spending was significantly cut, wages were controlled, the Shekel was sharply devalued, and interest rates were raised to punitive levels. The result was a recession in the 1990s with high unemployment. But inflation was tamed. And Israel did not fail as a state. Nevertheless, the taming of inflation in Israel benefited from various fortuitous factors: high levels of cheap immigrant labour, the technology boom, and the peace process opening up new markets. There aren't any such obvious pressure-release valves for the west. Furthermore, will those in the West feel as culturally tied to their home nation to stick through such periods of pain? In essence, is Israel a useful case study, or a distracting aside? We may hope it's the former. Otherwise, we may be entering a period for which the precedent goes back to the 1920s Weimar Republic. Or, even more worryingly, we may experience a crisis for which there is no historical precedent. Prepare accordingly.
“We know where we are in the debt cycle, we know where we are with energy. And so then it comes down to the key points: when there is tension in the market, when there's volatility in treasuries - okay, we've come to a point: they either have to let the debt default, or they have to print. The chance that they're going to let it default is like zero.”— Luke GromenLuke Gromen is the Founder and President of Forest for the Trees (FFTT). In this interview, we discuss how governments can navigate the first busting global debt bubble in 100 years. We talk about historical precedents: namely the Weimar Republic in the 1930s and Israel in the 1980s, and how governments may be forced to allow for a compressed period of triple-digit inflation.- - - - Israel in the mid-1980s faced an existential economic crisis. After a decade of stagnation and rising government expenditure fuelled by money printing, commercial banks started to buckle. Further, the inflation rate was skyrocketing. In 1979 it had reached 111%. By 1984 it had grown to 450%, with fears it could exceed 1,000% by the end of 1985. Despite the real risk that the sovereign debt bubble may soon burst leading to unprecedented levels of inflation, those in the west have become inured to a belief that very high rates of inflation only happen in developing countries. And yet, the experience of hyperinflation in an advanced democratic country was felt much more recently than most people think. It is important therefore to consider the lessons from Israel's inflationary crisis of the 1980s.The policies enacted by Israel to mitigate the situation were socially bruising. Markets were liberalised, government spending was significantly cut, wages were controlled, the Shekel was sharply devalued, and interest rates were raised to punitive levels. The result was a recession in the 1990s with high unemployment. But inflation was tamed. And Israel did not fail as a state. Nevertheless, the taming of inflation in Israel benefited from various fortuitous factors: high levels of cheap immigrant labour, the technology boom, and the peace process opening up new markets. There aren't any such obvious pressure-release valves for the west. Furthermore, will those in the West feel as culturally tied to their home nation to stick through such periods of pain? In essence, is Israel a useful case study, or a distracting aside? We may hope it's the former. Otherwise, we may be entering a period for which the precedent goes back to the 1920s Weimar Republic. Or, even more worryingly, we may experience a crisis for which there is no historical precedent. Prepare accordingly. - - - - This episode's sponsors:Iris Energy - Bitcoin Mining. Done Sustainably Gemini - Buy Bitcoin instantlyLedn - Financial services for Bitcoin hodlersBitcasino - The Future of Gaming is hereLedger - State of the art Bitcoin hardware walletWasabi Wallet - Privacy by default-----WBD646 - Show Notes-----If you enjoy The What Bitcoin Did Podcast you can help support the show by doing the following:Become a Patron and get access to shows early or help contributeMake a tip:Bitcoin: 3FiC6w7eb3dkcaNHMAnj39ANTAkv8Ufi2SQR Codes: BitcoinIf you do send a tip then please email me so that I can say thank youSubscribe on iTunes | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | Deezer | TuneIn | RSS FeedLeave a review on iTunesShare the show and episodes with your friends and familySubscribe to the newsletter on my websiteFollow me on Twitter Personal | Twitter Podcast | Instagram | Medium | YouTubeIf you are interested in sponsoring the show, you can read more about that here or please feel free to drop me an email to discuss options.
Friend and colleague Steve Bannon joins Charlie for an in-depth explanation of what's going on with the Bank of England and the mounting, profilgate spending by Western Democracies over decades, and what it all means for YOUR hard-earned money. Next, Charlie focuses on his midterm predictions that might be able to turn this sinking ship around. With less than a month to go, the moment has never been more urgent for conservatives to rally support to undue reckless, Democrat policies that threaten the bedrock of America's financial security.Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.