Podcasts about adobe digital insights

Today's podcast is with Vivek Pandya, Director, Adobe Digital Insights at Adobe. I recently caught up with Vivek at Adobe Summit in Las Vegas to talk about some new research that Adobe just published called AI to Cart, which highlights the impact that Generative AI-powered chat interfaces are having on consumers, how that is changing their search and shopping behaviours, what brands should be doing in response and his highlights from the event. This interview follows on from my recent interview – The art and the science of listening – Interview with Zig Serafin, Brad Anderson and Isabelle Zdatny of Qualtrics – and is number 536 in the series of interviews with authors and business leaders who are doing great things, providing valuable insights, helping businesses innovate and delivering great service and experience to both their customers and their employees.

Despite rumblings of a wary consumer, shopping results from Thanksgiving weekend reveal that consumers were eager to shop. For example, data from Adobe Digital Insights reveals that results from the weekend, especially Cyber Monday, beat initial projections. In this special episode of Retail Remix, host Alicia Esposito sits down with Vivek Pandya from Adobe Digital Insights to discuss how consumers shopped from the Thanksgiving table and their couches during the long weekend. Drawing on Adobe's extensive data collection and analysis, Vivek pulled the curtain back on the findings and revealed what consumer behaviors could tell us about the remainder of the holiday season – and what retailers should do about it.Check out this episode to learn:  Whether retailers' pricing and discounting strategies inspired consumers to cross off their holiday shopping lists;  How the ease of mobile shopping influenced overall traffic and spending results; Which categories saw the biggest sales boost and why;  If major shopping days (like Black Friday and Cyber Monday) still heavily influence consumer action; and Which trends and takeaways should guide retailers' efforts going through the remainder of the holiday season. RELATED LINKS Connect with Vivek here. Check out Adobe Analytics' 2023 Holiday Shopping Report. Learn more about Adobe Analytics. Read more about holiday shopping trends on Retail TouchPoints. Retail TouchPoints Personalization Special ReportLearn how to evolve from personalization to customization. Download this special report, sponsored by Volumental, today!

77WABC News Director Noam Laden spoke to Adobe Digital Insights Lead Analyst Vivek Pandya about Adobe's record Black Friday sales numbers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

You may have seen headlines that ask a similar question: is Cyber Weekend dead? Taylor Schreiner, Director of Adobe Digital Insights, doesn't think this reflects the entire story around holiday shopping trends and behaviors.   In this episode of Retail Remix, Taylor gets into the key findings from Black Friday to Cyber Monday, as well as how they were influenced by broader market trends and challenges. Listen in to hear:   How supply chain challenges impact when and how consumers shop;   New trends in device usage and product category demand; and   How hot-button trends, such as omnichannel fulfillment and BNPL, are driving consumer action.    RELATED LINKS  Get the latest updates on Adobe's holiday research.  See our recap of Cyber Weekend.  Check out more holiday coverage on Retail TouchPoints.    

Welcome to the Retail Rundown, your go-to weekly podcast where RETHINK Retail teams up with industry experts to discuss the news, trends, and big ideas that are redefining commerce. This episode is part one of our deep dive into the 2021 holiday shopping season and features insights from Adobe's annual holiday shopping forecast. Joining the show today is Taylor Schreiner, director of Adobe Digital Insights, where he leads a team of data scientists and researchers, who dig into Adobe's vast data set to provide consumers, businesses and policymakers a real time pulse on the evolving digital economy. If you enjoyed this episode, please let us know by subscribing to our channel and giving us a 5 star rating us on Apple Podcasts. - - - - - - Hosted by Paul Lewis Written and produced by Gabriella Bock Edited by Trenton Waller

EP278 - Adobe Holiday E-Commerce Forecast with Taylor Schreiner In Episode 277 we covered some of the early overall holiday sales forecasts, and the issues likely to impact this holiday season. In this episdoe we get the very first look at Adobe 2021 Holiday Shopping Forecast. This is a deep dive on digital shopping behaviors based on Adobe Analytics, which analyzes 1 trillion visits to retail sites and over 100 million SKUs. We break it all down with Taylor Schreiner, Director of Adobe Digital Insights. Episode 278 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday. October 14th, 2021. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this episode is being recorded on Thursday October 14 2021 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-hosts Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:38] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott show listeners we are smack in the middle of October and for all of our retail listeners you know what that means it is go time for Holiday 21 way back in episode 277 last week we talked about the supply chain challenges I like to call that Supply pain and we shared the e-commerce retail forecast from Salesforce Deloitte and beIN but there was one notable missing forecast from that list and that's one of our favorites the Adobe forecast well in this episode we're going to fix that hole in the universe we're going to fill it and Adobe is releasing their holiday forecast here on the 20th which is when we'll be releasing this podcast and we are really excited to have with us today Taylor Schreiner he is the director of Adobe Digital insights and fun fact this is adobe's fifth time on the show Welcome Back Taylor. Taylor: [1:34] Thanks God do we get a free sandwich. Scot: [1:37] Sure if we were there together we would have a sandwich but we'll we'll do a virtual high five instead how about that. Jason: [1:44] Just to warn you Scott's character is like grilled into the sandwich so some people find that. Taylor: [1:49] Oh no I'll close my eyes this could thank you Scott thank you Jason it's great to be here we'd love talking to you guys and we love listening to you guys so it's a fun conversation to have. Jason: [2:03] We are thrilled to have you Taylor and I do want to Dive Right In to your methodology and then your data but before we do real briefly remind. Um the audience what your role is at at Adobe to sort of frame frame where your perspective is coming from. Taylor: [2:20] Sure so I run a group called Adobe Digital insights it's got mentioned and we are charged with, using aggregated and anonymized adopted in data to. Help the industry retail and other Industries as well understand the major trends that we see in the data that comes through Adobe analytics or adobe Commerce or any of the other. I could get it to Commerce and experience cloud services that we have. So so our job is to tell stories to make it take all that huge area did it and tell stories that help people understand their world. Jason: [2:59] That's awesome and so there's a bunch of different components of the the Adobe marketing cloud in the do Adobe Commerce Cloud but. Sort of Marque things Adobe analytics which a long time ago too many of us that are super old was Adobe was omniture, is a is a key component of the analytics suite and Magento is a key component of the marketing cloud and so you you get to see, an awful lot of, Commerce transactions across the web via those two products and the rest of the the Adobe stack and you get to use that anonymized data to sort of formulate this holiday forecasting this case is do I have that right. Taylor: [3:41] Absolutely and I really appreciate you calling me super old. Jason: [3:44] I didn't say you called it I'm not sure I said I. Taylor: [3:47] I remember I remember the under two days I do but yes. Jason: [3:50] I'm pretty sure there's like the URL for the analytics dashboard still says all mature. Taylor: [3:54] I think sometimes it does yeah now it's absolutely right face. Jason: [3:58] And then one important distinction some of the. Holiday forecast that Scott mentioned in the intro are actually overall retail forecast and one of the things that that is unique your forecast is slightly more focused you're focused on digital Commerce do I have that right. Taylor: [4:16] That's right we have we focused exclusively on digital Commerce and we're looking what makes us unique is that we are looking across, over a trillion interactions with retailers across thousands of retailers across over a hundred million skus with a boatload of AI behind that sort of categorizing and understanding it but you know the core of it I think for your listeners is weird. The where the group is actually looking at what people are buying in what quantity and what they're actually paying for it. It's ridiculous prices we're not doing surveys were actually looking at the the behaviors that we can observe a huge scale and using that to do both the reporting in this case are forecasting of the holiday season. Jason: [4:56] Yeah and that's super exciting to me because that I frequently rail against the value of stated preference surveys in our industry and and what we're talking about today is observed preferences lies actual data and consumer behavior that you're watching. Taylor: [5:11] Absolutely and it's gonna be fascinating. Jason: [5:13] Yeah so just two other minor precursors and we'll jump in because there is so much variability out there when you say holiday what date range are you talking about. Taylor: [5:22] Good point right now we're talking about the first of November till the end of the year although arguably make it into it you know some of the stuff is starting to creep into October 2 but when we talk about numbers were talking about November 1 to December 31. Jason: [5:34] Perfect we'll come back to that but yeah I think I think the the shoulders of that season are going to be more interesting than ever and then when you say, retail. Like approximately like what is in retail to you I could go US Department of Commerce restaurants and gas stations are in there like do you guys have a standard definition of retail just to kind of frame what we're talking about. Taylor: [5:56] We generally look at a thing where the transaction the Fulfillment are fully executed online we exclude from this things like travel which is a different industry or anything where it's simply a payment system online but you know any Commerce where you're doing your shopping, your your payment and your fulfillment online generally falls into into our space so not restaurants are delivery services but but the goods that you would normally associate with with retail shopping outside of that. Jason: [6:27] Awesome and so digital grocery than would be in there. Taylor: [6:29] Yes he's a digital grocery appliances apparel all that kind of thing. Jason: [6:34] Perfect okay well I think that's enough Preamble and we've done enough teasing what's what's the Top Line are we all going to get our bonuses this year or is it going to be bleak. Taylor: [6:43] It's your our data showing a good year or days showing a year where the story is really consumers want to shop consumers wanted to go buy online but it's going to be really different year for retailers and for consumers because of the supply pain that Scott was referring to earlier they're going to see a lot more out of stock they're going to see a lot, you know a lot higher prices frankly and that's I think it'll hold us back from having a incredible year. Now just keep in mind I'm talking about a 207 billion dollar, season which you know we don't have a great aggregate retail forecast that we based off right now but that's roughly $1 and for of all of all retailgeek. As far as we can see maybe a little more than that. And it's 10 percent up from last year which you know in the long run of historical growth rates is a little bit low but we're getting off of a 33% jump the year before so if you kind of look all the way back to 2019 we're still. Accelerated from where you would have expected us to be if you've been projecting from a prepaid nemec stance so it kind of depends on where you're looking at it from. But however you look at it it's going to be a big year. Jason: [7:58] Got it so in my mind I sort of think of it traditionally year of e-commerce growth for Holiday being kind of like pre-pandemic. We were kind of running in this like 10 to 15% a year sort of range, um and all of retail would be growing at like four percent a year so then last year the pandemic forces everyone online we have this monster year 33 percent and then this year you're looking for you're looking at 10% on top of last year's monster year. Taylor: [8:27] That's right that's right still going to grow it's still good grow significantly it's still good grow you know maybe as you stay at the kind of lower bound of what we used to see but it's a real real growth rate now they'll be some differences in what grows and how it grows you can get into that but it's going to be a good year. Jason: [8:44] And one of the thing that's always funny to me is I guarantee you when the the sort of superficial press get ahold of your forecast they're all going to write the story about how e-commerce has is slowing way down. Taylor: [8:58] Right yeah nobody wants to talk about two year growth rate or you know try and digest everything that's happened over over the course of the pandemic and fine and but I know, when you step back even a little bit e-commerce has transformed over the past 20 24 months I think the bigger story is people are shopping for their groceries people are shopping for their Furniture you know folks out here in Berkeley or buying compost online, the way that people engage with e-commerce has radically transformed over the course of the pandemic and that's here to stay and that's this the basis of that growth and that you know that's the part that really has accelerated over the course of cobit so if you want to look at a particular growth rate and say it's slowing down, fair enough, but I don't think for instance you know I want to make predictions in 223 but I don't think this 10 percent growth rate in 22 is telling you that 23 is going to be slow I think it's more of a balancing act between. 2020 and 2021. Jason: [9:58] And again like this still means e-commerce is almost certainly growing faster than brick and mortar. Filming the whole industry is still growing in a very disruptive year I do want to like maybe double-click on covid just for a second because this was the big open question when we were all living through, the first half of the pandemic was sure. Everybody's turning to e-commerce people don't want to go to the stores there's health and safety issues they're all they're all these open things so not surprising that it drove more people online a big question at that time was. Is this just an acceleration of a trend and this is going to be the new normal or will those people all be desperate to go back to the store and resume and back to the mall and kind of resume their pre-pandemic. Shopping behaviors and. My read of your data says no no we're locking in all those changes that happened last year and then we're we're growing at a pretty healthy clip from there is that a fair way to be thinking about it or am I wrong headed as got usually points out. Taylor: [11:02] No in this particular case you happen to be right the that's absolutely true if you look at the aggregate growth I think it tells exactly that story that it, it is we're banking all the gains that you got through covid and there were growing on top of that, I think another stat I think really tells the story is our buy online pick up curbside. Data which you know followed that trajectory you talked about Jason, getting up there as we got into the pandemic and retailers adjusted we have a we have a set of retailers we look at the median portion of their online purchase online orders that are fulfilled curbside and that ramped right up last year with all of its fulfillment challenges ranked right up right before Christmas you about 25% we thought that's a that's a high peak right we got into April of this year and it gone right back up to 25% people are still going and pick you up curbside that's a habit that they're in their shopping online and fulfilling next to the store and we expect that to hit a whole new record frankly as we go into this year so it's a it's a habit that people have gotten into and they're not letting go of. Jason: [12:10] Wow and if this is from memory but I want to say last year you guys said that well well e-commerce grew at 33% the dopest segments are the curbside pickup segment grew way faster than that it was like a hundred and ninety-five percent. Taylor: [12:25] Yeah I don't have enough time I have like it's something like that it was it was significant and this year's going to be. Going to be crazy and you know anecdotally you know there are a number of stores where I think hey I really like this I'm not going to set foot in number of those I'll shop with them but I'm against it putting them again for a while if I don't have to this is great for me. Jason: [12:47] Yeah you know it's maybe only partly analogous but I talked to a lot of Quick Serve restaurants. And you know they have the same thing right they sold they sold meals but it was all off Prem consumption and you know the restaurants that have the biggest intrinsic Advantage were ones with drug through. And I've talked to an awful lot of restaurant tours that are like if I could wave a magic wand and make my dining room go away and have a more robust drive through. I would do it because that's the customer that that appears to be the long-term customer preference. Taylor: [13:19] Yeah I think and I think a lot of retailers who have got good real estate or obviously having to rethink how much of this is a you know distribution center and how much of this is a shopping experience and you know it's gonna be different than it was two years ago for sure. Jason: [13:34] And then I guess the one other sort of observational thing I've noted is. Yeah so you know our store is going to get people to walk back in the store to pick up those digital orders are they going to continue to pick them up at curbside and you know one who knows but one clue. Um is pre-pandemic Walmart had these in storage lockers these robotic lockers this cool Tower and all their stores. Um and they d installed all of those towers and they're now doing a national remodel with a much more robust, curbside picking lot parking lot right so it seems very clear and Walmart's case that they're saying hey the. You know this isn't just a reaction of the pandemic this is a you know a permanent infrastructure change we're making two. To make to eliminate in-store pickup and make curbside pickup more. Taylor: [14:24] I think that's right I think that is likely the trend I think you know it there's a lot. A lot of the hassle of of shopping that you're removing with shopping online and pick you up at the store is, is that last not mile I mean the last you know a hundred feet hundred yards of going in there and getting in the inline or whatever if you can just sit with your app and check your email with some well so they put stuff in the trunk that's a lot of a lot of value add there so I would expect that to be continue to be the trend. Scot: [14:52] Bullets as I introduced I'm kind of keenly aware or following the supply chain stuff and I noticed in the front of your presentation one of the bullets is unprecedented out of stock levels if you guys can you share like you know what you think that's going to be and is there any way to put a number on that like you're numb your forecast would have been you know twice as big if it wasn't for this or you just guys are just flagging it as this adds risk to the holiday. Taylor: [15:21] It's a fair question something we think a lot about I mean it's really hard to characterize and we probably just need more more. Time with the with the day I met don't make time to think about it but time series data to really understand how out of stock. Alters people shopping behaviors whether they abandon or whether they take some to which they redirect themselves. I will tell you is that you're going into if you look at sort of 2019 isn't as the normal it was growing when people were getting more out of stock items more of stock hits over time maybe you know creeping up toward fifty or a hundred percent more even over the course of the year and the pandemic hits and people are five times more likely basically four and a half to five times more likely to get an out of stock message and that's today that's not necessarily going to Holiday where things could get more challenging. So that could go up where we see it often isn't most often is in apparel so again you know I think it's going to affect different categories differently out of socks in the Peril can be if you're looking for a particular stereo pair of sneakers or particular you know this is the 20th so what made you I was buying for my wife but something you know a vest or something right that is her birthday is on the 23rd so I want to tell her what's what I was shopping for, anyway the you know you might not get that. Scot: [16:46] Is your wife a listener. Taylor: [16:48] I really doubt it. But yeah you might get redirected to something else whereas in electronics for instance we see you know a lot of chips shortages but. But price is a bigger factor in some of that marketing and decision making and so you're able to see apparel prices creep up a little bit but a lot about a stock you see for instance Electronics prices creep up a lot from what we would have expected but that that has reduced the out-of-stock challenges that they faced. Scot: [17:24] So so it's hard to put a quantity quantify on at this point maybe you think after the holiday you guys will be able to. Taylor: [17:31] I think it'll be easy yeah I mean you know we have a clear estimate of what things might have looked like before I think after the holiday talk to us in January we can we will have a better sense of how this played out this holiday season one of the challenges that I think is out there is it's not clear yet how much out of stock consumers are really going to see this season, based on you know when retailers are running promotions how they're stocking us those promotions how they're managing their their portfolio of goods so. We'll have to see but it's something that yeah had Beyond in January we'll talk about. Scot: [18:09] Okay it's going to be more of a chess game because the retailer they have the only information about what they have and what they can expect and then matching that to the promotional calendar this year is going to be interesting and playing a little game of chicken with the consumer to because consumers should be reading about this a lot so it's going to be fascinating to watch watch how that plays out. Taylor: [18:29] Yeah I've been recommending to Consumers frankly to make two lists, say look you got one list of things where I know I want this for the holidays and you got to buy it early because you might worry about your your out-of-stock situation and then another set of goods were you think hey you know if this doesn't come through or if I don't get specifically the version of this that I want yeah if I don't get this TV but I get a different brand TV I'm okay and then those things you can really shop for on the big major sailed is but it's you know. It's going to be it's a lot of a lot of work for the retailers to figure out how this game is going to play out and frankly it's gonna be a lot of work for consumers to figure out how they're going to address it. Jason: [19:10] I guess one of the ways I think about this it's important to remember that out of stock does not automatically mean wah sales like a lot of times there's a. Customers first choice but the they'll make on the Fly substitutions are switches when they discover some things out of stock so we still capture that. That's a land it seems like all like you know all the people forecasting retail sales for this holiday are pretty robust numbers you're coming in with a pretty robust number, everyone saying we're not going to find, consumers first choice of goods so the sort of logical conclusion here is the consumers in a spending mood when I go to the store to get baby grow goo for Scott for Christmas and it's out. Um Scott's going to have to settle for some cool dune toy that I find. Taylor: [19:58] Hey didn't really cool the The Arc right and I think maybe the way to answer Scott's question directly is you know. In the face of this rapidly increasing out of stock, we're seeing at least you know up to the 5x of what we saw in 2018 we have still seen really impressive growth this year especially we're 2019 so so far whatever headwind it is is not. Super significant now I think you know the experiment that will be able to look at is if this starts to spike as we go into the holiday season if retailers have a hard time matching their inventory with with consumer demand then that might have a bigger impact in the they'll be saying we can look at more closely. Jason: [20:42] So you alluded to some of the categories and I have a feeling that. Um that both out of stocks and the impact of out of stocks could play out very differently in different categories right like if someone goes to the grocery store and we're out there out of your preferred brand of toilet paper. You're probably going to switch to another toilet paper but if there's a particular luxury fashion item or a particular toy that little Johnny is asking for for Christmas. Um you might be more inclined to hunt her harder for that product or defer that purchase and get it later or something like that right is does that make sense. Taylor: [21:16] Absolutely yeah and you know grocery out of stocks are not not at all infrequent with your particular Goods at a particular moment and then apparel is something I don't know about the rest of you but I've gotten. Pretty acclimated to the notion that I'm not necessarily going to be able to find the size and the color I'm looking for on the first try that it's quite quite possible I have to hunt around but you know there's a lot there a lot of style choices that go into that whereas I think you know if you're looking for a you know something specific as you say you know for particular. Particular toy your gift you might have to hunt them different retailers to go find it but you might be willing to do that exactly well. Jason: [21:58] So when you roll it out all that up are there any categories in your mind and end up being clear winners or losers for holiday. Taylor: [22:06] Well you know I think the it's it's a good question the the. [22:17] Clearly where we've seen growth is where we've seen the clearest growth in the holiday and in e-commerce in general has been in the things that are not holiday specifics of groceries apparel those kinds of things have really grown and we continue to see them grow so in some sense they are the Commerce winners because they've really absorbed the, I think what's going to be very successful early on are going to be these deals that get spread out around electronics and other gifts in an apparel we expect to see those went out very well I've got my eye though on non physical Goods things like downloadable games and things like that that happen the mic pop up toward the Christmas season is people who are looking to deliver something that is great experience especially for kids that isn't going to be constrained by shipping challenges and then. [23:18] I don't know where to put my bets this year because I've got my eye both on the demand that I see in a lot of things like gaming consoles that are looking great but also on you know there's a big question mark over over Supply challenges and how that will play out for them so I would be cautious in spread my bets but but electron you know the traditional gift areas are going to do really well and apparel seems to be continuing to take off very strongly in what we've seen so far. Jason: [23:48] So you the non-physical thing is super interesting ordinarily and holiday like as you get closer to the end of the year and you kind of hit shipping cut-offs and last year we talked about a lot about ship again I didn't, and you know bottleneck sit ups and FedEx and all of that you know retailers pivot to trying to sell. Intangible products pretty hard right and most notably gift cards so I imagine that with the the inventory situations this year that that's going to be more prominent than ever that you know if you can't find the, the toy you really want you know it might be an IOU you're getting, it holiday in the hopes of getting it in January or February but there is a new kind of intangible that kind of didn't exist last year and is having a little bit of moment and I have a feeling Scott's way more into it than I am but why. Does all do all of these out of stocks kind of play into the the the. In Ft kind of hate this year do you think that we could start to see some of them on the holiday wish list. Taylor: [24:52] I think I think in a few still have a ways to bleed into you know consumer experiences and consumer expectations that I see a lot of reading and not a lot of a lot of buying but if people can figure out how if retailers can figure out how to make. You're kind of cross that Chasm and figure out how to make it a real consumer experience and yeah I think there's a lot of opportunity there for that and you know and speaking of things that are not necessarily tangible and expire or unique you know we don't forecast travel into our into our data but we do look at travel and right now you know prices for. Plane tickets are about 13 percent less than they were on average in 2019 so you know depending on how. Vaccinations and mask mandates and travel restrictions all play out there may be a push if knock wood covid gets better for more experiential, experience driven options for people to give as gifts to. Scot: [25:49] One of the things that I've been really intrigued by and this is because some of the companies have gone public but this buy now pay later and I saw you called it out and I've seen a lot of the Wall Street analyst as a for my generation I look at it I'm kind of like, you know why don't I just put that on the credit card what's interesting is I've seen this whole generational thing where Millennials and gen Z years they're looking at it as they associate the credit around the item they don't like kind of having open credit and they want it to be around a specific item what what are you guys seeing as it relates to the be npl. Taylor: [26:25] We love new acronyms right be in PL no I have exactly the same experience you just got where I think exactly what you do this but we had two sources on this one is we looked at the actual data that we see flowing through our systems and we saw skyrocketing last year of buy now pay later Behavior we saw about 44 percent growth over the course of the year, weeks that slowed a little bit in percentage terms as we went through this year but you know as we get back into the holiday season I have every reason to expect that to re-accelerate, and you saw quite the distribution two of you know sources of this is some retailers got into this business a lot of financial institutions got certain play in this area so there's a lot more more options we saw those we saw the minimums for buy now pay later come down from those institutions and simultaneously we actually saw consumers spend more or put put bigger purchases on buy now pay later, and when we surveyed about it we, we saw what you were alluding to Scott this is a generational difference in the way that people manage and even think about what credit really is and was striking to me is that the top, category that folks told us that they were interested in using buy now pay later for was was clothing that they were making those kind of purchases and and Spring Meadow over time because they were, lumpy in their year and then they were spreading it out across their income without affecting their credit. [27:52] Electronics was obviously on that that set to you going to buy your television as televisions get bigger and more expensive or cheaper but bigger but what was the. [28:02] Third category that I thought was fascinating was groceries. And not again we dug under that that wasn't just people it wasn't generally people saying look I've got a week's worth of groceries and I spread the payments out over four weeks that's hard to make sense of but but more you know I'm throwing a party or having an event and I have a spike in my grocery budget no one at this I want to smooth it so it is a and then they were everyone was managing it sort of separately from this notion of having a lump of credit card debt they had a managed versus a purchase they had to think out and pay off those are two really different categories so it is it's a really different way of thinking about credit that's manifesting in buy now pay later and it seems to continue to be growing at a significant rate. Scot: [28:49] Yeah do you think. The pitch that a lot of these so that the two big companies are there's three there's a firm karna and after by and I'm sure there's more egg even like shopify's coming out with their own and what not, their pitch to retailers is it bumps up your cart size right do you think, is this going to be a factor this holiday in our is it going to bump up the ASP you think there are still too small to be a meaningful consideration. Taylor: [29:17] You know when we when you average across the enormous event that is the holiday season I don't think we're going to see average order value is our average basket, values go up significantly more noticeably are or more to the point me off trend of what we've seen in the past that said, you know I think. If these retailers are thinking about their customer base has more granularly and they're thinking well I've got a group of folks who I can actually juice where I can do sup there their basket sizes and their purchases by offering that I think that probably is true and, you know as with these kind of generational shifts it may make a difference in the longer term as you change consumer buying habits it may open up a door for that generation is incomes increase and time goes by so I think probably more of a long-term play when it comes to aggregate average order values but for specific audiences for specific customer bases I think it did make a difference. Jason: [30:18] Yeah it's going to be interesting you know there's a payment method that historically has been really popular holiday that you know. Rich people that listen to e-commerce podcast don't tend to think about but it's layaway. And I like one of the interesting Trends you know Walmart which does a very robust delay way business retired their layaway this year in favor of a buy now pay later service. Taylor: [30:44] Yeah I remember the I remember the Layla way shelves. Toys R Us when I was a kid and just sitting them seeing all these items sit there waiting for people to pay for them but if you can get the same effect. And both for the consumer on their credit and for the retailer in terms of getting paid then it's certainly more enticing for the customer to actually get the item rather than wait for it. Jason: [31:10] I know for sure I do like to sad things there was kind of a fun tradition because of away away some very kind people would often go into a retail store. And pay everyone's layaway. And it was kind of this like secret Santa thing and you know it would happen every year there would be lots of these cool stories so I worry we're going to miss out on that which you know probably isn't. Isn't hugely meaningful but it said to me but the other thing that worries me a little bit about holiday I do think like based on your growth forecast like this is going to be a bunch of consumers first experience with these buy now pay later services, and I would still say there's a lot of consumer confusion because like I look at the landscape of these services. And the spectrum is very broad there are you know some kind of thinly veiled payday loan operators that are you know charging like huge interest and late fees and all these things on one end and then there's there's some like. Really generous programs that are very popular in here that don't charge interest in don't have late fees and you know is sort of a. Very low cost and so it. I'm not sure consumers are going to be Savvy enough to differentiate all of those for this holiday I know Target in particular is offering two different buy now pay later options and. Consumers are going to have to learn how to shop for those vendors now. Taylor: [32:35] I think that's absolutely right Jason it's very hard you know it's sort of an unstructured product that can have a lot of different attributes and it's not like a credit card where you we serve reduced it to something like credit limit and interest rate right with some with some bells and whistles and it's also not, it's not even something that consumers know how to frame necessarily like I certainly didn't when I got into the space what is this what are these payments mean what is the penalty if I miss the payment you know what are my other options how are we going to communicate how you get paid what information do you need has if at my credit score it's a lot to think about and it's going to you know thinking has a lot of costs especially when consumers are shopping this quickly so you know I think we'll have a reckoning Reckoning but a moment to pause and. Reflect on how this all evolved we get to the holiday season it will see some things shake out I would imagine. Jason: [33:31] Next well let's pivot to something near and dear to my heart the we alluded to up top the shape of holiday so there's two. Parts of this that are super interesting to me, ordinarily when we talk about holiday we're laser focused on these five days at the end of November the turkey fiber that I think you guys caught the Cyber five. Taylor: [33:53] Yeah they're my wake up at 3 a.m. 5 so I have I hold them in a different regard but they are. You know the story that you know when we would talk to you guys before for the pandemic would always be you know hey this the the season is growing but these big days are growing faster retailers are concentrated you're competing and concentrating their deals on those days and we're seeing retail consumers follow suit and they're expecting those deals on those days that really flipped around last year we had a massive growth last year about 30 odd percent 33 percent for the season. [34:27] But the individual days were growing in the low 20s there are growing about 10% slower then the season as a whole and we expect that again this year we expect the season to grow at about 10% expect the big days to grow about five-ish percent. To be clear they're going to break records I mean we're going to have an 11 plus billion dollar a day on Cyber Monday we're gonna you know Black Friday is going to going to inch up close to 10 billion Thanksgiving is going to be you know over five it'll, level that we used to call Young used to be Black Friday of numbers it's going to be massive but both because, retailers are spreading out the deals for supply and fulfillment reasons and because consumers have really shifted what it mean what e-commerce means in other words they've established sort of water level of shopping for things that are not holiday and promotionally driven, those percentages are harder to move than they used to be so yeah it's going to be they're going to be big days they're gonna be huge that last hour before the end of Cyber Monday we're going to see $12,000,000 move through the system in a minute so, every minute so it's going to be big but it's going to be a different pattern especially the thing from the Retailer's perspective than we've seen in the past. Jason: [35:40] Interesting and do you have a feel for like how much it like I think you hit on the 2 reasons for it like one is the lot of large numbers there already huge. Huge numbers and and you know frankly in some cases quite you just can't squeeze more Goods through the. The funnels on those days and then the other one is changing consumer patterns and and just you know more General e-commerce consumption on every other day of the month and all those other things like it, I'm assuming it's a blend of both of those but but is is this year more prominent that people are going to be holiday shopping on other days or you think we've just. Taylor: [36:18] Yeah it's hard it's a hard call I think what's unusual about this year's really the retailer side I mean you could imagine a world where with fewer Supply constraints where retailers are more willing to put big sales on those big days and compete for eyeballs and four dollars so maybe a maybe there's a new normal where that changes but what I don't think is changing is that consumers are now permanently going to be in a state where Ecommerce is more and more available to them where you know be their home. Certainly their phone is is increasingly an easy place to go shopping and so all this concentration on these days is going to make less and less sense to them in terms of shopping behaviors if you go back out you know the origin of these days is really about sitting outside a big box and and can't be out and trying to get deals because you had to go in person but if you don't, if you if you if it's less and less the case that you actually have to go get things then it becomes easier and easier to spread out your purchases over time and if you're always shopping online you're not, you know just sort of the complete opposite of what you know going going to the office for Cyber Monday to go shopping which is what some of us used to do then you know you're much more open to these deals and opportunities that that retailers can offer you throughout the season so that part's not going away. Jason: [37:40] That's a great point so so then let's let's zoom out a little bit you guys are counting holiday is November 1 through December 31st a lot of retailers would, include January in there, holiday season again a lot of you know gift cards and returns and people you know come in with that return and they buy more stuff so January normally is a good month, and then this year the deals. Started in October right like Amazon Started Black Friday deals on October 4th time to get started on October 10th I think. Sort of boosted because of the supply chain concerns retailers are fighting really hard to start holiday shopping in October, and because all the stuff we really want is stuck on a boat off the coast of Long Beach we might not get it until January or February so with all of that supply chain squishiness. Like is there like what you know. Taylor: [38:39] What do we see. Jason: [38:40] Holiday in November and December but is it even a like the rate of growth is even bigger if you were to kind of you know redefine holiday as a October through February. Taylor: [38:51] Yeah I mean the way that shows up in our data is that we see a we so far I've seen a very strong October, we've seen very strong October in terms of overall e-commerce growth not not on par with you know the big holiday months but it's you know we're looking at you know roughly that ten percent year-over-year a little bit more for October so it's a good sign. [39:17] The what we're also seeing though is we're keeping a close eye on prices and as I said we're see we see. Data at the transaction level and it gives us a particularly unique view into into prices and we're going into your September are digital price index which is the of the basket of goods that we see purchased online through retail was up 3.3% over last year less than the CPI was up last month but still really significantly and for context up until the pandemic we had never seen digital inflation it always be always in prices going down on part about 5% order of about five percent so people are going into this season with higher prices there will be some discounts but we in October but I don't think they're going to make a dent in that inflation yet. And frankly from what we've seen historically over the other holidays of this year we expect to go in with higher prices for goods in general and we expect discounts to be, significant but a little bit shallower than they were at their last year their deepest point so consumers may be paying significantly more, this year on a Black Friday for a particular item than they were they would have been last year on that same date when you add all that up. Scot: [40:35] Nursing the so I know we're up against time so a little lightning around here it wouldn't be a Jason and Scot show if we didn't talk about Amazon any any tea leaves on Amazon. Taylor: [40:47] So we are we assiduously avoid commenting on particular retailers for a number of reasons but everybody's going to have a big year I would imagine this year. Scot: [40:56] My theory is if the supply chain matters Amazon Amazon Walmart and maybe Target are so dialed in on that but it was some a bit of an advantage and could hurt the small guy this year but we'll see how that plays out. Taylor: [41:11] What do you think the large versus small is a good good framing of that, you know bigger retailers in and out of stock in a world without of stocks have more options to to offer and complete a sale and then small retailers who may see their carts more likely to be abandoned I think that's a significant factor. Jason: [41:31] Okay so then the next lightning one is you talked a little bit about inflation you talked a little bit about like discounting not having to be quite as deep. How does that all washout in terms of profitability I do do retailers make more money on fewer sales this year or does do all these supply chain costs eat it up and, and it's you know thin margins. Taylor: [41:51] Yeah well so I think margin management is going to be a whole different game and retailers of already had to think a lot about that this year that you know the top line is going to be bigger per item so you're going to get more Revenue but I don't see that really being driven by some kind of margin maximization Behavior it seems to be largely driven by increasing increasing costs of goods and so you know I don't see a real Gap step open it up between increasing costs and and increasing Revenue to create a giant chunk of margin there. Scot: [42:28] How about anything on device Trends any news kind of done to be a bit of an old story that you know the smartphone is overtaking the desktop. Taylor: [42:37] There is a little bit of news it's kind of fascinating so we that's that's it if you looked at the share of Revenue that was doing through smartphones from 2014 till even into the pandemic you could have basically drawn a straight line I mean it was a it was a sort of, Early College regression experiment that we've been super easy for First Years to do that's changed a little bit smartphones are still gaining cheer don't get me wrong they're still growing faster than desktop in terms of the revenue is coming through them. Ever so slightly more slowly than than they used to and it may be an indicator that, in America at least we may be headed toward an equilibrium to looks more like a sort of 50/50 World between desktop and phones which is obviously really different than some other parts of the world where that it may be 80/20 or 90/10. [43:33] Right yeah I got two expense that so I can you know make it part of our part of our. Jason: [43:38] If we get our new app tops in time then we're all shopping on our laptops otherwise we're all shopping on our floor. Taylor: [43:42] Exactly. Jason: [43:45] But it wasn't a or we could talk all day I know you're in super high demand this this time of year and and you know quite frankly not in demand at all the rest of the year so I'm sure we'll talk again when. When you're less popular, but this was awesome we really appreciate your time as always if folks want to continue the conversation or have questions you can hit us up on, on the Twitter or the Facebook page, and as always if you got value out of this show we sure would appreciate it if you'd go on to iTunes and give us that five star Christmas review. Taylor: [44:19] That's what I'm going to do Jason. Scot: [44:21] Awesome we push it if that's aren't your gift to us and it's digital so we don't have to worry about Supply pain if I think in past years you guys have set up kind of a cool holiday news Hub is that something you're going to do this year and we're world where will we find them. Taylor: [44:37] It will be there I need to get you the URL we can put the URL in a link to this if you guys are watching this online I will make sure you guys have it before we got there but yes there will it'll be there. Scot: [44:47] All right we really appreciate the time. Taylor: [44:50] Right thank you guys I really appreciate Scott real patient appreciate Jason happy to do this anytime. Jason: [44:56] We appreciate you Taylor and until next time happy commercing!

We're in the midst of one of the strongest digital economy growths ever says Taylor Schreiner from Adobe Digital Insights who explains that e-commerce sales have been strong throughout the U.S. economy's reopening. Online spending in the U.S. reached $73.5B in May, which represents 58% growth over the past two years. Schreiner also talks about the leader of the e-commerce sector, Amazon (AMZN), ahead of its summer sales event Amazon Prime Day that takes place on June 21 and 22.

Massimo Paselli, Senior Vice President of Global Enterprise at Verizon Business, talks Verizon innovation, the continued roll-out of 5G, and what the future holds for Verizon Business. Taylor Schreiner, Director of Adobe Digital Insights at Adobe, discusses data from their Digital Economy Index. Chief Economist at PineBridge Investments, Markus Schomer, gives his market outlook ahead of the Fed decision. Bloomberg Opinion columnist, Mark Gilbert, talks about his latest column: "Bankers Love Hedge Funds for a Very Good Reason." Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.

Support the Show: The Jason & Scot Show as been nominated for "Best Retail Media Resource" by the VIP awards.  We'd appreciate your support, if you could take a minute to vote for us. Adobe Recap Taylor Schreiner is the Director of Adobe Digital Insights. He uses Adobe's data to give us a recap of the Cyber 5 (the five shopping days from Black Friday through Cyber Monday, this year Nov 29 - Dec 2). Adobe Holiday Dashboard Thanksgiving  11/28 - $4.2B (up 14.5% YoY) below forecast of $4.4B Black Friday 11/29 - $7.4B (up 19.6% YoY) below forecast of $7.5B Saturday - 11/30 - $3.6B (Up 18% YoY) at forecast Sunday - 12/1 - $3.8B Monday - 12/2 - $9.4B (up 19.7% YoY) at forecast Don't forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes. Episode 202 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Wednesday December 4th, 2019. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Automated Transcription of the show Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scott Show. This is Episode 202 being recorded on December 4th 2019. I'm your host, Jason Retail G. Goldberg. And as usual, I'm here with your co host, Scott Wingo. Scot: [0:39] Hey, Jason! And welcome back, Jason Scott. Show listeners we are in the thick of holiday 2019 and are really excited tohave back on the show. Adobe. And I think this is the fourth time. In fact, check me on that. Jason had one of the interns check. Jason: [0:54] I I actually had one of the interns in you. That number. So yes, it's right. Scot: [0:58] Good. All right. Pre pre fact checked. We're getting pretty. Ah, reliable here of Jason Scott Show. Um, this year, representing Adobe, we have Taylor Shiner. He is the director of Adobe Digital Insight's Welcome Taylor. Taylor: [1:12] Thanks for having me. Guys. Appreciate it. Jason: [1:14] We are excited to be a tailor and a sort of tradition on the show. We always like to give listeners a little bit of background. So can you kind of share with us some highlights of your background? And what your role is it it'll be. Taylor: [1:25] Sure. So I was the 52nd best chess player in Utah in fifth grade. Ah, And then from there I went into a career in retail. Uh, I went, to work on Internet insights about 15 years ago with some of the major Internet players across the industry, and I've been doing that for a decade and 1/2. And then about three years ago, I found my dream job here. A WNKW Adobe Digital Insight's. We get to tell these amazing stories about how the digital world works, and we get to tell people about how tech and companies and events are changing their digital lives and companies about how those same trends are affecting how they need to run their businesses. And we get to talk about retail. We get about time travel. We could talk about a whole host of different things. It's been fantastic, and I get to work with some amazing data scientists, analysts to develop these insights, and it lets me have conversations like this one with you guys. So it's a perfect gig, and I love it. Jason: [2:24] Possum. So, to recap, this is sort of a career highlight for you right now. Taylor: [2:28] Yeah, I like to I like to go from Holly Tyler, but this one, I'm loving it. Jason: [2:31] Yeah. Yeah. Pinnacle, I like it and I'm. Scot: [2:34] Think Jason means being on our podcast. He wants an explicit answer on them. Jason: [2:38] All right. Taylor: [2:38] Oh, yes, I'll give you a quotable thing. Being on the Jason Scott Show is a career highlight to date. Scot: [2:45] Boom. Jason: [2:45] That boom. Yeah. You'll see that in the in the preview show. Pretty soon here, Uh, and I'm sure all this insight stuff is gonna be super fascinating. But I have to know first, if you've kept up your chest up chess, it all. Taylor: [2:57] Uh, only recently in my eight year old has started to learn to play chess, and he's creeping up on being able to beat me. And that is not acceptable. So. Jason: [3:05] Yeah, that's a losing battle. You could probably keep ahead of him for a little while, but I think, uh, there's, ah, natural progression there. That's working against you. Taylor: [3:13] I'm afraid so. Jason: [3:15] Awesome. Well, let's jump into the data. So we talk about your date a lot on the show. We already did. Ah, an episode this week. In fact, what we talked about some of your data, and it always falls on me to describe your data set. And I'm sure I'd butcher it. So, um, here's a chance toe kind of refresh our audience from the horse's mouth. Can you tell us a little bit about, um, what the data set is and how you use it. Taylor: [3:38] Sure. So we build a model of US online retail sales based on trillions of Web site visits based on, tens and back to think over hundreds of millions of skews based on data from thousands of different companies all across the US across. Ah, you know, a variety of device types. OS is on other information, and we use that to to plan out, especially on a day by day and occasionally hour by hour basis. Uh, how we think that that season's gonna go So he predicted all. And then we go back and we track on a daily in again, sometimes hourly basis. How US online retail sales go s Oh, it's a big data lift, and we spend all year getting to this point to be able to talk Ah, in almost real time about how how the sales were going. Jason: [4:33] I got it. And so just make sure my understands. Correct. So, um, there are a ton of major e commerce sites that use an analytics product called the Dhobi Analytics, which is, if you go back far enough, formally. Ahm nature. And so it. The core of your data set is in aggregated view of all of those customers that are using that analytics tool for for their e commerce sites. Do I have that right? Taylor: [5:00] Yes, sir. The majority of the data that we've got and this is not including some data from the recent magenta acquisition so that there's a whole other set of data sources as well as some other things. We talk about it on the periphery, but the core of the data that we work with our data from opted in. So companies that have chosen to share data with us, um, and for value that we give them. And so that shared data Anonima ized before we even touch it and aggregated at a very high level so we can talk about these macro trends, but yes, that's where the data comes from and to be analytics. Jason: [5:34] Perfect. And then, um Ah, and that was you already answered. My fob question in the court date is that you have not integrated any of the new data that you might have access to from Magenta. And if I have it right, you're also, at this point not really using data from the rest of the adobe marketing cloud. Taylor: [5:53] E. I wouldn't necessarily say that. So we do. Uh, we do a lot of so we haven't agreed. A lot of the magenta data allowed us to look at things like shipping and returns that, uh, we're new renews angles for us, and it certainly gives us these amazing to you into that tail. Set aside some of the bigger players in terms of e commerce, but we also you used the mark enter data for your candidate to look at so are marking channel Information Ad Cloud, which used to be two mogul, which I worked for. Uh, we used them for some advertising data around Thanksgiving. So we bring it all the pieces. Um, but, you know, not all of it necessary goes to the top line number. As you as you say. Jason: [6:33] Sure. And then, um, you kind of alluded to this, but you're not just trying to report on trends from adobe customers. You're you're using some advanced math and you do the customers represent a big chunk of the market. But then you and interpret what the total market is based on the subset that you see. Do I have that? Correct. Taylor: [6:56] You do. I could spend a whole other podcast on how we do that, but it sze not do that. Yes, it's cool math. We do cool math. Jason: [6:59] Yeah, let's not do that. But just call it a cool math. Yeah, And then the other thing that comes up a lot. And I think you guys are really good in this as well. Like very often. We talk last year versus this year, and when a lot of vendors report their data, the customers they have this year are different than the customers they have last year. So when they're when they're talking year over year growth and things like that, it's usually not perfect. Apples to apples. Um, but because your your, um trying to normalize the data for the whole market before you do it. When? When you say there is a 20% growth this year versus last year, that's a pretty accurate number. Drab. Taylor: [7:39] Uh, yeah, I think you should. It's yet. You said that. Really? Well, that's absolutely That's. Jason: [7:43] Perfect. You can use that in your highlights. Now we've reciprocated. Awesome. Scot: [7:49] Go. So, uh, now that Jason's extracted his pound of flesh, let's Ah, let's jump in at a high level. How? How would you view Holiday 2019 shaping up? Taylor: [7:52] Okay. [7:59] I think it's been quite strong. And it has been strong all through today. In fact, if you let me, I'll give you, uh, it as, ah, this morning. So yesterday's numbers Through the third of December, we saw $84.7 billion in online retail sales, and that's up 14.8% on last year for the same period. So that's a little faster than our aggregate prediction. But the way that the bottle is trending that out puts us on target to be about 14.1% roughly on our predicted Taff for the season. So and the 14.1%. I mean, some listeners and people who visit our website will see that last year was particularly strong of the 16% growth year. But if you look back a few years just 2016 twice 17 this is sort of on par with those growth rates, but on a much larger base now, as we head into almost $150 billion in sales. So it's it's pretty huge. Um, the the other tidbit of information I can give listeners about yesterday. Giving Tuesday is that it was a $3.3 billion day, which is amazing research and account $3 billion days, the way that when I started in this gig, we counted $1 billion days. So they're coming fast and furious. Now, that's only up about 11% on last year. [9:23] So, uh, it leaves us open to the question of our consumers. Have consumers, you know, taking all these early deals on and won't be spent later, or are they just taking a break on Tuesday and ready to get back out today? Scot: [9:38] Yeah, let's Ah, so it sounds like we're growing kind of 14% year over year. Um, if you if you kind of look at the shape of the holiday so far, I know you can't predict. Well, you don't know what it's gonna happen here towards the end. It's kind of gotten this what I would call a U shape where it's being more front and loaded and back and loaded. So the front end is people that have their act together and jump on the deals. The back end is like Jason I where we're like, Holy cow. Uh, holiday is here. We should do some shopping on the 23rd. Um, the, uh does that does that kind of what you've seen and is getting more pronounced. Can you tell if you've seen the front part of the curve? I saw some data that said, like, Veterans Day was unusually large and like the early November days were larger. You guess? You know. Taylor: [10:24] Absolutely so we saw just points on these numbers from this conversation. If you look from the beginning, what we call the beginning seasons of the person November roughly right to, um, Wednesday, that hole to the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, that whole period Groot. About 15%. So that's what that was about a point 1/4 faster than we would have predicted. So angry it. We saw a big lift we saw lift above. We would have expected in that early season it that seems to be attributable to a bunch of, uh, earlier deals. We had something similar happen last year, but it's even stronger now where discounts came earlier in electron ICS and computers and televisions. We also saw that, you know, last year, Thanksgiving itself was a breakout day where you had, despite it can. Suddenly Thanksgiving was growing faster than any other day. That spike seems to have moved back now to Wednesday, where the Wednesday before Thanksgiving was growing at about 22%. And I think again, that's attributable to ah, lot of deals moving forward in time. So and to your point, that really changes the shape of the season. You know, we used to basically tell a story of like, look, everything is sort of lifting around that Cyber Five said. The days of the 757 days is getting a disproportionate share. [11:41] That's still true, but we're seeing sort of, ah, shift back to earlier sales this year, and that might have to do with the calendar. But I think it is actually a broader trend of thinking about these pre holiday sales and reality promotions as being think that happened earlier, both for retailers and consumers. Jason: [12:02] Yeah, it's interesting to me. It's like, um, it feels like in the beginning of the season, you know, there's there's a lot of retailers under stress and have to have a good holiday. And there's this kind of winner take element mentality. And so we both see Maura aggressive promotions and discounting at the beginning of the season. And I feel like we also see more digital marketing like more investment in ads and things like that, huh? That really goosed the front half of that. You, um and then I have a hypothesis. We'll see if it plays out. But, uh, you know, of course, Amazon has gone toe faster and faster shipping, right? And so that, you know, this would be the first big holiday with with sort of standard one day delivery in various forms. Walmart, target and some extent, even best Buy have all been forced to sort of match that fast shipping. So, you know, not that long ago we would have had this this very gentle ramp down of sales as we'd hit shipping cut offs and people would stop buying goods and then they'd just be doing oh, piss or gift cards. Or things like that because they'd run out of time to get the gifts before the end of, you know, in time for holiday. But now everyone can be a procrastinator like Scott and I, because so many of the vendors will ship so fast. So it feels like like all of those things conspire together to make the very beginning and the very in these these ah, anomalous bikes or that you shape. Taylor: [13:25] I think that's that's gonna be absolutely true. And this this year, in particular with this shift, two more by online pickup in store ah, or clicking collect behavior. And to these accelerated shipping, it's gonna it's gonna make people think they can wait longer in the season where they can't really wait longer to your point. You know, it's it's three weeks away before even those things are gonna be, uh, almost too close to Christmas to shop for Thio to purchase with. And so you know, I think we'll see that ramp up at the end of people. Start to panic a little bit. And that's also why, by the way, you see jewelry discounts be really strong on, like 20th. Everybody who's panicked and realize they haven't gotten anything starts. Uh, just looking for something nice and blinking. Tow. Give us a gift. Jason: [14:09] Interesting. I was always assuming that people just misbehaved right before the holidays. And therefore it was a Yeah, I have no personal experience or data to support that. Taylor: [14:13] You may have a better high pop resistant I do on my own. I would draw my contention. Jason: [14:20] Just to be clear, honey, if you're listening, um uh, do you want to jump in to the cyber five, though? Um, so we just got through those, Uh, can you kind of give us a recap for specifically? How have Thursday through Monday played out? Taylor: [14:37] Sure, So overall it's about $28 billion uh, online purchases over that same time frame, and that's 10 almost $11 billion of purchases through smartphones. So overall it was quite strong. Almost 18% if you like those five days over last year, five days with peaks, you been on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, which always kind of blows my mind because I get the question every year. Are these days too big to really grow outgrow the rest of the season? And I convictable Maybe next year they will be. And it's not not the case, people. Another not only are moving more online, but they're really focusing a lot of those purchases and increasing amounts on those big days. S o. You know, several money, for instance, this year was $9.4 billion. So we're almost gonna guarantee there is a $10 billion day, uh, barring anything serious happening next year on Cyber Monday, which is, incredible, and over 1/3 of that, those purchases are really coming on phones. Eso you're seeing people not only window shopping actually make purchases on those big days on their phones, especially that's what cyber Monday when people go sit in front of computers at work. But you know, people under the table on Thanksgiving. Uh, people on Black Friday we'll pretend to hang out with their family, but but by where? Two things. Anyway, Uh, that's really been a mobile story. [16:06] And then the other story of the weekend, which I always, you know, you're talking about how, by a and pick up in store, uh is ah, you know, it is a capability that my drive people to wait a little longer for their purchases. But nonetheless, we saw a big bump in bogus activity. Even on that, that major weekend without 40% more purchases. Then we had when we saw last year over the same timeframe, so outstripping overall gross and really pushing both share up. Jason: [16:38] Interesting. And so And if I think of it from a historical perspective, you know, 10 years ago a few people had reliable Internet and so, you know, cyber Monday or we'll call 20 years ago. Several Monday became a big thing, like we'd all enjoy Thanksgiving. We'd go to work on Monday, steal our bosses Internet and go shopping. And so that was like the one day spike. And then, as as, uh, you know, we all became ubiquitously online. The traditional big shopping day Black Friday also became a big online day. And in fact, I feel like they're often are these forecasts that that Friday is eventually going to surpass Monday online, which seems like, hasn't happened yet. Read joy. I have that, right? Taylor: [17:23] But it hasn't quick hasn't gotten there yet. Uh oh, no. Didn't you thought? Jason: [17:25] Yep. And then I'll go ahead, I was gonna say, And then increasingly, those other days in the weekend have grown to be extraordinarily meaningful. So, you know, frankly, 10 years ago, we talk a lot about cyber Monday. I actually don't care as much specifically about the results on Cyber Monday, because if it feels like the the aggregate results of the Cyber five is much more important and indicative of how holidays going than any one day in the, in that block nowadays, is that a good way to look at it, or am I being shortsighted? Taylor: [17:59] No, I would agree with that. And I think what's always fascinating to me and is, uh, topic of a longer conversation. Is that to your point? There's no need necessarily now for Cyber Monday. Everybody's not only got good Internet access at home, they've got good Internet Internet access in their hands. But we have become so habituated to that day being a major sales day, and both on the consumer and the retailer side that it continues to grow on. The psychology of this often drives a lot of the behavior even beyond the pricing or the deal's or anything that our model might pick up. So to your point, you know, I think if you just looked at the data, you might think, Hey, look, this is all going to smooth out a little bit. But people continue to think about those days as the big days to go shopping, Uh, online and offline. Jason: [18:47] Interesting. So you're saying people might be willing to go shopping even when it's slightly irrational? Interesting. No. Thank God for that, by the way. Yeah, and along those lines, it feels like folks have been trying thio kind of make hay in some of those other days. Taylor: [18:54] It's a new fighting I came up with. Yeah. Jason: [19:04] Like for a while now, that that Saturday has been small business Saturday. Taylor: [19:09] You okay? Jason: [19:10] Andi, I think there's a couple of people trying to grab Sunday now, too, right? It is. I'm trying to, uh. Taylor: [19:15] Yeah. Super Sunday has a bunch of different cuts at it. Exactly. And there are big days. Now we're talking about, uh, you know, there, there. Three and 1/2. Almost $4 billion each. This is It's massive any other day of the year and we would be having a conversation about a particular $3 billion day. But they just come fast and furious between November and Christmas. Scot: [19:42] Do you do? You have? Ah, At the end of the season, everyone has a different word. Just be like free shipping day. And then I think it's called Green Dares. But you guys, what is what is last year like? Was there a bump? And is it? How does that compare to, like, Cyber Monday? Taylor: [19:51] And. [19:58] So we said we would see ramps toward the end of last year, and I don't have the last little couple days to hand. But they were more closer to sort of Super Saturday and or even smaller than that in the $2 billion range. Um, as you had in there. They're not the ones bigger ripped last year, but two earlier point. I'm really curious to see if we don't see a big bump. Uh, come to the 20th 19. Scot: [20:24] Yeah. Hey, this is just kind of came to me. So it's if you don't have an answer. I understand. So last year we grew 16%. This year we're growing 14. Where do you think that 2% Delta is coming from? Is it just kind of across the board, or is it a certain category underperforming? You have any Any thoughts on the. Taylor: [20:44] I have some thoughts, and I think it'll be really interesting conversation to have in a few weeks. But the the, um, the couple things, first of all the models telling us 14 ish, Um, my gut says there might be more upside risk there than downside. So somebody get my clothes. What seems to be the case so far in the data is that there wasn't proportionately even bigger push into the early season. Um, because of, uh, a CZ people moved into Thanksgiving on on that Wednesday, some of his deals move forward. But honestly, if you just if you just look at the math, which is, uh, what we particularly good at, the just pushing the season shorter between Thanksgiving and Christmas is about a $1,000,000,000 which is, you know, 50 bases, 50 of those basis points, uh, arm or sorry on its own. So between a little bit of merging of error and that some of those basis points and ah, uh, and not the shock of all these earlier deals that got everybody accelerated between those three things you kind of get to, uh, the delta. Scot: [21:53] So the jury's still out. Kind of depends on how the models perform and how people react to those missing days. Taylor: [21:59] Yeah, exactly. If we get a big surge and everybody. Service comes off of the off several Monday and thinks, Gosh, I got a sprint toward, uh, toward River Last shipping days game. I'll be very different than everybody feel like. Gosh, I blew my budget on all those early deals. Scot: [22:16] Yeah, cool. It wouldn't be a Jason and Scott show if we didn't talk a little bit about Amazon. And I understand if you can't talk specifically about anyone, retailer or whatnot. But any insights into how Amazons holidays going big, they put out their annual release that said something like Vague like We sold hundreds of millions of dollars. You know, third parties did great. So so it always befuddles Wall Street when they kind of without these puzzle boxes for them to figure, figure out. Taylor: [22:45] Yeah. J. J. Abrams doing the press releases? No, I, uh you said you wouldn't be your podcast if you didn't ask about Amazon. It wouldn't be a doubIe response. I didn't say we don't talk about particular retailers, but what I can say eyes we do track the biggest and the smallest against each other Really looking at. Especially as you see two big trends that big. A lot of discussion about big, big retailers pushing, couldn't collect, pushing one day shipping, having great deals. Ah, and a lot of democratization of, uh, e commerce. As you know, a lot of art form. We have five farm, those others that makes that much easier for people to bring businesses to the market. So those two forces air going on, um, in the on the average, uh, you see big companies outperforming smaller ones in terms of growth. So if you compare November an average day in November to an average day in October for the big companies they're up about, these are $1,000,000,000 plus companies. [23:42] They're up about 87% in sales, whereas the smaller companies in the 50 million lower range. So these are the small ones are up only about 43% and some of it is. It's coming from the East from the data, at least, is coming from two things. One is the larger companies are much better at mobile conversions, that 80% better at taking a customer and bringing them to purchase on a phone than the smaller companies. And consequently, they get about 10% more of their share. Their revenue from those phones and the way that I reviewed the data is that if you're a consumer and you are going to a big retailer, that big retailer has a number of advantages, including a wide set of products wide set of, promotions generally really good, aye, aye at connecting you with those promotions, and a really the slick, speedy checkout process that they worked on really hard. And for the smaller companies, they obviously have quite a selection. Some of them haven't figured out how to turn customers, uh, into buyers swiftly. But the last thing I would say this is the most important part about this is I am talking about the averages. So, you know, in the smaller companies, there's a lot of entry, a lot of people trying things out on a lot of exit, and there are within that average a huge number of small companies who are just blowing the doors off. It's just that on average, they're not doing as well as the very big ones. Jason: [25:09] Sure that makes sense. Um, you talked a little bit about Omni Channel. I wanted to jump into that for just a second. That seems like an area where, in particular, a lot of the big companies have made major visible investments in their infrastructure. So of course you know, Target, but shipped. And then now that's heavily integrated. And they have rich like same day delivery and curbside pickup options available across all their mobile platforms. Wal Mart, you know, has has done a bunch for general merchandise Omni Channel. But even more for grocery, um, and curbside pick up and and all of those things even, um ah, the Amazon. You know, although much more footprints are starting to get a little better at Omni Channel with their with their small footprint of retail stores, um is any indication of that's paying off? Like Are you guys ableto to see an Omni Channel transaction versus a pure digital transaction? And is there any like is the rate of growth of those Omni Channel transactions faster than overall? Taylor: [26:15] Oh, yeah. So we're we're seeing a Z, said rumor, roughly in the 14 to 16% range growth for the overall market place, but for by online picker in starker POTUS. Another word that's up but, like 40% for the season. So it's way outstripping overall sales. And what's also really interesting is we see that this has a little bit to do with larger, so small. But we see that companies that offer, uh oh, this, uh, 20% better at converting, then companies that don't offer both us. So people are coming there specifically for that capability, or at least finding that capability incredibly valuable to them. At my my thought on this is Look, we got a phone in her hand that has moved the display window experience into your hand. It's moved the checkout experience into your hands, and everybody just wants to move that fulfillment. That one thing in between the human experience, closer and closer and you know, one day shipping is great, but, uh, sometimes it's just easier if you drive down in about 10 minutes and go pick up the thing you just saw and knew you wanted. [27:25] And plus these guys are. You know what we see in the survey data to is it? This is good for the brick and mortar stores that not only are they know is you guys know that not only are they making people making purchases online and sitting in the car and getting that that pickup, they're also going to the store and buying another thing, could they thought of it. I'm driving that That makes it different. Step for brick and mortar stores as well. Scot: [27:47] Wrinkle. Um, you've hit on this a little bit, but let's talk about mobile. So, um, do you guys, when I talk about mobile, I tend to take tablet out, and it seems like you do to you. You seem to be explicitly calling out smartphone. Um, so you mentioned. I think I can't remember. Was it black Friday? You said it was. 1/3 of the sales came from a bull. Ah, talk us through any other kind of insights on the mobile side. Taylor: [28:12] Sure s o your point. We tried. We tried crier years to be really disciplined about mobile version smartphone. We've been a little acts this year because tablets are decreasing share. So smartphone really had started crossed That that 1/3 threshold on major days in terms of dollars spent, it was always has been for the past several years. The majority visits were coming from phone, so people were doing initiating their shopping. We had this challenge empire years and still have some do now that they weren't closing the deal. Uh, from that we'll visit either not at all or going to the desktop to purchase. That gap continues to close. In fact, on Christmas this year, we expect to have the first day in us where the majority of online purchases actually come through a phone. As people aren't going to their computers and their families are around, they're actually using boats. That purchase and the things that are driving this, at least in the data that we see are two really interesting and related points. One is that time per visit is going down rapidly. So, consumer, they're coming. They're not messing around. [29:20] They're looking for and expecting the product that they that they came for at least a product to buy. And some of that is going to be in part because your connection speed have gotten faster. Screens gotten bigger processes were faster, but also retailers have gotten much better at streamlining that process. I'm the mobile phone, and consequently, the amount of money that people are spending per minute per second on a mobile phone continues to skyrocket month after month, year after year. As people just get faster making those purchases, especially with a lot of them. You check out options that make make it easier than, say, trying to type in the numbers on your credit card. Jason: [30:03] Fascinating. The, um that would be cool if, uh, Christmas did end up being the first, like, majority mobile day. Um, I was also truce. You mentioned something earlier. Um, that sounds like that. I call it a mobile gap when traffic side, but conversions lower. And it sounds like that mobile gap is getting lower for big companies. And you said it a couple reasons why that might be, um, in general. Do you feel like that? Like, Is that mobile gap? Um, getting narrower across the border. Is it only for large companies that they're they're being successful closing that gap? Taylor: [30:39] Well, I think large companies again, it has to do it so that the broad, um uh, you know, there's a much broader array of outcomes and smaller companies than larger ones, so it's harder to paint them with the same brush. The large companies obviously have focused on this. Figure it out. They can track per second per user per region per item, how much time consumers are willing to tolerate and they can achieve those things down. If nothing else, would I just bring more machines online? Smaller businesses don't always have that ability, but the platforms, one of which Toby has but the Platform three Commerce are making that whole process from visit to fulfillment and even marking channel much, much more streamlined, especially for small businesses. Who, uh, we think about that a little bit and focus on what their consumers experience needs to be. Jason: [31:34] Got it. So one A transition briefly to profitability. So last year I feel like the narrative would have been, ah, you know, a big growth year, a jump from the previous year. But a lot of people felt like it was Ah, that was partly attributed thio heavier than usual promotions, which meant it actually ended up being, you know, not a phenomenal profitability year. Um, and so this year, we're seeing the rate of growth slow a little bit from last year. Is there any reason to believe that people are being more conservative on promotions or are you have any insights about how we're gonna come out from promotions and profitability perspective? Taylor: [32:18] So, you know, I'll be honest with you were really good about figure out the revenue. We're really good about throwing out prices. We are generally missing that third piece of costs that allows you to talk about profitability. But I'll tell you what. I was thinking about this this morning and last night and looking at, but began for a bunch of different angles in our data and frankly, that the short answer is the results are mixed. So we did. If you asked me a week or so ago, uh or even to I would have said, Look, the discount seem to be moving forward, especially in electronics. Um, and so, you know, maybe the maybe the profit margins are slimming, but then we started. Look at toys and toys. Bottom out, quickly. Um, uh, you know, maybe once the Toys R Us process was was through the toy discounts didn't go is deep. This year's they did last year, and we're seeing something we saw. For instance, we elected appliances, appliances discounts for a little later last year. So exactly how the profit margins are gonna go. Hard to say. But the, um, you're in the revenue looks really strong. So, you know, I think the jury is ah, bit out where possibilities go in. But I don't for consumers see, a year where we're like have massively deeper discounts than the last year. We just have them earlier and on particular product. Jason: [33:38] Got that? Uh, that makes sense, and I agree. It's It's really hard to get a clear picture until well after the fact on the promotions, because there's like there's promotions and pricing effects and all these other things. But one thing that seems like it might be coming to play a little bit more on profitability this year is profitability like there's a couple Evers one. Is that pricing a promotion? Another is the cost of acquisition. Um, and I do feel like folks. There's a lot of folks that used the Adobe marketing cloud, um, for further cost of acquisition. Like, Are you guys seeing any trends around higher advertising rates or spend rates than previous years, or is that not something you guys are looking at you? Taylor: [34:18] So we don't. We have looked at overall investment in advertising. That could be a fairly complicated thing to grab to look into. But we have looked at performance and individual, Um, your ad level pricing and what's interesting is we definitely see if you're if you're advertising, especially in video, but also on display or search. You're gonna see costs go up, um, a bit as everybody sort of pores online and wants to wants to acquire customers in the video room. That's about 23% higher CBN's. But when we look at performance, metrics does go up by an even greater amount. So, uh, you know, again in video that we're pressed about 20% performance in terms of, uh, viewable completions of videos are going up 30%. Or we see, for instance, your email efficacy goes up quite a bit over that that same time frame. So we should We haven't reached a point of diminishing return earns uh, in those areas yet where prices start outstripped performance growth, and I think there's a lot of opportunity for customer acquisition there on dhe. Advertisers and marketers have figured that out and are pouring the money, and now when it's, uh, it's most productive. Jason: [35:32] That that makes sense, and that's gonna be a great place to leave it, because we have, ah, slightly exceeded are a lot of time for this show. But as always, if we didn't get to something that folks want to talk about, your welcome and I hit us up on Twitter or leaves the question on our Facebook page, as always, have you enjoyed the show? We'd really appreciate it if you, um, jump on Thio iTunes and give us that five star review were also nominated for this vendor of the year award in our category, So I'll put a link in the show notes. If you could take a couple minutes and vote for us, we'd really appreciate that. But Taylor really appreciate you being on the show and sharing the data. I know it's a busy week for you. Taylor: [36:10] Thank you guys so much. Really appreciate the opportunity. Scot: [36:13] Thanks, Taylor. Jason: [36:13] Until next time. Happy commercing.

Support the Show: The Jason & Scot Show as been nominated for "Best Retail Media Resource" by the VIP awards.  We'd appreciate your support, if you could take a minute to vote for us. Adobe Recap Taylor Schreiner is the Director of Adobe Digital Insights. He uses Adobe's data to give us a recap of the Cyber 5 (the five shopping days from Black Friday through Cyber Monday, this year Nov 29 - Dec 2). Adobe Holiday Dashboard Thanksgiving  11/28 - $4.2B (up 14.5% YoY) below forecast of $4.4B Black Friday 11/29 - $7.4B (up 19.6% YoY) below forecast of $7.5B Saturday - 11/30 - $3.6B (Up 18% YoY) at forecast Sunday - 12/1 - $3.8B Monday - 12/2 - $9.4B (up 19.7% YoY) at forecast Don't forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes. Episode 202 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Wednesday December 4th, 2019. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Automated Transcription of the show Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scott Show. This is Episode 202 being recorded on December 4th 2019. I'm your host, Jason Retail G. Goldberg. And as usual, I'm here with your co host, Scott Wingo. Scot: [0:39] Hey, Jason! And welcome back, Jason Scott. Show listeners we are in the thick of holiday 2019 and are really excited tohave back on the show. Adobe. And I think this is the fourth time. In fact, check me on that. Jason had one of the interns check. Jason: [0:54] I I actually had one of the interns in you. That number. So yes, it's right. Scot: [0:58] Good. All right. Pre pre fact checked. We're getting pretty. Ah, reliable here of Jason Scott Show. Um, this year, representing Adobe, we have Taylor Shiner. He is the director of Adobe Digital Insight's Welcome Taylor. Taylor: [1:12] Thanks for having me. Guys. Appreciate it. Jason: [1:14] We are excited to be a tailor and a sort of tradition on the show. We always like to give listeners a little bit of background. So can you kind of share with us some highlights of your background? And what your role is it it'll be. Taylor: [1:25] Sure. So I was the 52nd best chess player in Utah in fifth grade. Ah, And then from there I went into a career in retail. Uh, I went, to work on Internet insights about 15 years ago with some of the major Internet players across the industry, and I've been doing that for a decade and 1/2. And then about three years ago, I found my dream job here. A WNKW Adobe Digital Insight's. We get to tell these amazing stories about how the digital world works, and we get to tell people about how tech and companies and events are changing their digital lives and companies about how those same trends are affecting how they need to run their businesses. And we get to talk about retail. We get about time travel. We could talk about a whole host of different things. It's been fantastic, and I get to work with some amazing data scientists, analysts to develop these insights, and it lets me have conversations like this one with you guys. So it's a perfect gig, and I love it. Jason: [2:24] Possum. So, to recap, this is sort of a career highlight for you right now. Taylor: [2:28] Yeah, I like to I like to go from Holly Tyler, but this one, I'm loving it. Jason: [2:31] Yeah. Yeah. Pinnacle, I like it and I'm. Scot: [2:34] Think Jason means being on our podcast. He wants an explicit answer on them. Jason: [2:38] All right. Taylor: [2:38] Oh, yes, I'll give you a quotable thing. Being on the Jason Scott Show is a career highlight to date. Scot: [2:45] Boom. Jason: [2:45] That boom. Yeah. You'll see that in the in the preview show. Pretty soon here, Uh, and I'm sure all this insight stuff is gonna be super fascinating. But I have to know first, if you've kept up your chest up chess, it all. Taylor: [2:57] Uh, only recently in my eight year old has started to learn to play chess, and he's creeping up on being able to beat me. And that is not acceptable. So. Jason: [3:05] Yeah, that's a losing battle. You could probably keep ahead of him for a little while, but I think, uh, there's, ah, natural progression there. That's working against you. Taylor: [3:13] I'm afraid so. Jason: [3:15] Awesome. Well, let's jump into the data. So we talk about your date a lot on the show. We already did. Ah, an episode this week. In fact, what we talked about some of your data, and it always falls on me to describe your data set. And I'm sure I'd butcher it. So, um, here's a chance toe kind of refresh our audience from the horse's mouth. Can you tell us a little bit about, um, what the data set is and how you use it. Taylor: [3:38] Sure. So we build a model of US online retail sales based on trillions of Web site visits based on, tens and back to think over hundreds of millions of skews based on data from thousands of different companies all across the US across. Ah, you know, a variety of device types. OS is on other information, and we use that to to plan out, especially on a day by day and occasionally hour by hour basis. Uh, how we think that that season's gonna go So he predicted all. And then we go back and we track on a daily in again, sometimes hourly basis. How US online retail sales go s Oh, it's a big data lift, and we spend all year getting to this point to be able to talk Ah, in almost real time about how how the sales were going. Jason: [4:33] I got it. And so just make sure my understands. Correct. So, um, there are a ton of major e commerce sites that use an analytics product called the Dhobi Analytics, which is, if you go back far enough, formally. Ahm nature. And so it. The core of your data set is in aggregated view of all of those customers that are using that analytics tool for for their e commerce sites. Do I have that right? Taylor: [5:00] Yes, sir. The majority of the data that we've got and this is not including some data from the recent magenta acquisition so that there's a whole other set of data sources as well as some other things. We talk about it on the periphery, but the core of the data that we work with our data from opted in. So companies that have chosen to share data with us, um, and for value that we give them. And so that shared data Anonima ized before we even touch it and aggregated at a very high level so we can talk about these macro trends, but yes, that's where the data comes from and to be analytics. Jason: [5:34] Perfect. And then, um Ah, and that was you already answered. My fob question in the court date is that you have not integrated any of the new data that you might have access to from Magenta. And if I have it right, you're also, at this point not really using data from the rest of the adobe marketing cloud. Taylor: [5:53] E. I wouldn't necessarily say that. So we do. Uh, we do a lot of so we haven't agreed. A lot of the magenta data allowed us to look at things like shipping and returns that, uh, we're new renews angles for us, and it certainly gives us these amazing to you into that tail. Set aside some of the bigger players in terms of e commerce, but we also you used the mark enter data for your candidate to look at so are marking channel Information Ad Cloud, which used to be two mogul, which I worked for. Uh, we used them for some advertising data around Thanksgiving. So we bring it all the pieces. Um, but, you know, not all of it necessary goes to the top line number. As you as you say. Jason: [6:33] Sure. And then, um, you kind of alluded to this, but you're not just trying to report on trends from adobe customers. You're you're using some advanced math and you do the customers represent a big chunk of the market. But then you and interpret what the total market is based on the subset that you see. Do I have that? Correct. Taylor: [6:56] You do. I could spend a whole other podcast on how we do that, but it sze not do that. Yes, it's cool math. We do cool math. Jason: [6:59] Yeah, let's not do that. But just call it a cool math. Yeah, And then the other thing that comes up a lot. And I think you guys are really good in this as well. Like very often. We talk last year versus this year, and when a lot of vendors report their data, the customers they have this year are different than the customers they have last year. So when they're when they're talking year over year growth and things like that, it's usually not perfect. Apples to apples. Um, but because your your, um trying to normalize the data for the whole market before you do it. When? When you say there is a 20% growth this year versus last year, that's a pretty accurate number. Drab. Taylor: [7:39] Uh, yeah, I think you should. It's yet. You said that. Really? Well, that's absolutely That's. Jason: [7:43] Perfect. You can use that in your highlights. Now we've reciprocated. Awesome. Scot: [7:49] Go. So, uh, now that Jason's extracted his pound of flesh, let's Ah, let's jump in at a high level. How? How would you view Holiday 2019 shaping up? Taylor: [7:52] Okay. [7:59] I think it's been quite strong. And it has been strong all through today. In fact, if you let me, I'll give you, uh, it as, ah, this morning. So yesterday's numbers Through the third of December, we saw $84.7 billion in online retail sales, and that's up 14.8% on last year for the same period. So that's a little faster than our aggregate prediction. But the way that the bottle is trending that out puts us on target to be about 14.1% roughly on our predicted Taff for the season. So and the 14.1%. I mean, some listeners and people who visit our website will see that last year was particularly strong of the 16% growth year. But if you look back a few years just 2016 twice 17 this is sort of on par with those growth rates, but on a much larger base now, as we head into almost $150 billion in sales. So it's it's pretty huge. Um, the the other tidbit of information I can give listeners about yesterday. Giving Tuesday is that it was a $3.3 billion day, which is amazing research and account $3 billion days, the way that when I started in this gig, we counted $1 billion days. So they're coming fast and furious. Now, that's only up about 11% on last year. [9:23] So, uh, it leaves us open to the question of our consumers. Have consumers, you know, taking all these early deals on and won't be spent later, or are they just taking a break on Tuesday and ready to get back out today? Scot: [9:38] Yeah, let's Ah, so it sounds like we're growing kind of 14% year over year. Um, if you if you kind of look at the shape of the holiday so far, I know you can't predict. Well, you don't know what it's gonna happen here towards the end. It's kind of gotten this what I would call a U shape where it's being more front and loaded and back and loaded. So the front end is people that have their act together and jump on the deals. The back end is like Jason I where we're like, Holy cow. Uh, holiday is here. We should do some shopping on the 23rd. Um, the, uh does that does that kind of what you've seen and is getting more pronounced. Can you tell if you've seen the front part of the curve? I saw some data that said, like, Veterans Day was unusually large and like the early November days were larger. You guess? You know. Taylor: [10:24] Absolutely so we saw just points on these numbers from this conversation. If you look from the beginning, what we call the beginning seasons of the person November roughly right to, um, Wednesday, that hole to the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, that whole period Groot. About 15%. So that's what that was about a point 1/4 faster than we would have predicted. So angry it. We saw a big lift we saw lift above. We would have expected in that early season it that seems to be attributable to a bunch of, uh, earlier deals. We had something similar happen last year, but it's even stronger now where discounts came earlier in electron ICS and computers and televisions. We also saw that, you know, last year, Thanksgiving itself was a breakout day where you had, despite it can. Suddenly Thanksgiving was growing faster than any other day. That spike seems to have moved back now to Wednesday, where the Wednesday before Thanksgiving was growing at about 22%. And I think again, that's attributable to ah, lot of deals moving forward in time. So and to your point, that really changes the shape of the season. You know, we used to basically tell a story of like, look, everything is sort of lifting around that Cyber Five said. The days of the 757 days is getting a disproportionate share. [11:41] That's still true, but we're seeing sort of, ah, shift back to earlier sales this year, and that might have to do with the calendar. But I think it is actually a broader trend of thinking about these pre holiday sales and reality promotions as being think that happened earlier, both for retailers and consumers. Jason: [12:02] Yeah, it's interesting to me. It's like, um, it feels like in the beginning of the season, you know, there's there's a lot of retailers under stress and have to have a good holiday. And there's this kind of winner take element mentality. And so we both see Maura aggressive promotions and discounting at the beginning of the season. And I feel like we also see more digital marketing like more investment in ads and things like that, huh? That really goosed the front half of that. You, um and then I have a hypothesis. We'll see if it plays out. But, uh, you know, of course, Amazon has gone toe faster and faster shipping, right? And so that, you know, this would be the first big holiday with with sort of standard one day delivery in various forms. Walmart, target and some extent, even best Buy have all been forced to sort of match that fast shipping. So, you know, not that long ago we would have had this this very gentle ramp down of sales as we'd hit shipping cut offs and people would stop buying goods and then they'd just be doing oh, piss or gift cards. Or things like that because they'd run out of time to get the gifts before the end of, you know, in time for holiday. But now everyone can be a procrastinator like Scott and I, because so many of the vendors will ship so fast. So it feels like like all of those things conspire together to make the very beginning and the very in these these ah, anomalous bikes or that you shape. Taylor: [13:25] I think that's that's gonna be absolutely true. And this this year, in particular with this shift, two more by online pickup in store ah, or clicking collect behavior. And to these accelerated shipping, it's gonna it's gonna make people think they can wait longer in the season where they can't really wait longer to your point. You know, it's it's three weeks away before even those things are gonna be, uh, almost too close to Christmas to shop for Thio to purchase with. And so you know, I think we'll see that ramp up at the end of people. Start to panic a little bit. And that's also why, by the way, you see jewelry discounts be really strong on, like 20th. Everybody who's panicked and realize they haven't gotten anything starts. Uh, just looking for something nice and blinking. Tow. Give us a gift. Jason: [14:09] Interesting. I was always assuming that people just misbehaved right before the holidays. And therefore it was a Yeah, I have no personal experience or data to support that. Taylor: [14:13] You may have a better high pop resistant I do on my own. I would draw my contention. Jason: [14:20] Just to be clear, honey, if you're listening, um uh, do you want to jump in to the cyber five, though? Um, so we just got through those, Uh, can you kind of give us a recap for specifically? How have Thursday through Monday played out? Taylor: [14:37] Sure, So overall it's about $28 billion uh, online purchases over that same time frame, and that's 10 almost $11 billion of purchases through smartphones. So overall it was quite strong. Almost 18% if you like those five days over last year, five days with peaks, you been on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, which always kind of blows my mind because I get the question every year. Are these days too big to really grow outgrow the rest of the season? And I convictable Maybe next year they will be. And it's not not the case, people. Another not only are moving more online, but they're really focusing a lot of those purchases and increasing amounts on those big days. S o. You know, several money, for instance, this year was $9.4 billion. So we're almost gonna guarantee there is a $10 billion day, uh, barring anything serious happening next year on Cyber Monday, which is, incredible, and over 1/3 of that, those purchases are really coming on phones. Eso you're seeing people not only window shopping actually make purchases on those big days on their phones, especially that's what cyber Monday when people go sit in front of computers at work. But you know, people under the table on Thanksgiving. Uh, people on Black Friday we'll pretend to hang out with their family, but but by where? Two things. Anyway, Uh, that's really been a mobile story. [16:06] And then the other story of the weekend, which I always, you know, you're talking about how, by a and pick up in store, uh is ah, you know, it is a capability that my drive people to wait a little longer for their purchases. But nonetheless, we saw a big bump in bogus activity. Even on that, that major weekend without 40% more purchases. Then we had when we saw last year over the same timeframe, so outstripping overall gross and really pushing both share up. Jason: [16:38] Interesting. And so And if I think of it from a historical perspective, you know, 10 years ago a few people had reliable Internet and so, you know, cyber Monday or we'll call 20 years ago. Several Monday became a big thing, like we'd all enjoy Thanksgiving. We'd go to work on Monday, steal our bosses Internet and go shopping. And so that was like the one day spike. And then, as as, uh, you know, we all became ubiquitously online. The traditional big shopping day Black Friday also became a big online day. And in fact, I feel like they're often are these forecasts that that Friday is eventually going to surpass Monday online, which seems like, hasn't happened yet. Read joy. I have that, right? Taylor: [17:23] But it hasn't quick hasn't gotten there yet. Uh oh, no. Didn't you thought? Jason: [17:25] Yep. And then I'll go ahead, I was gonna say, And then increasingly, those other days in the weekend have grown to be extraordinarily meaningful. So, you know, frankly, 10 years ago, we talk a lot about cyber Monday. I actually don't care as much specifically about the results on Cyber Monday, because if it feels like the the aggregate results of the Cyber five is much more important and indicative of how holidays going than any one day in the, in that block nowadays, is that a good way to look at it, or am I being shortsighted? Taylor: [17:59] No, I would agree with that. And I think what's always fascinating to me and is, uh, topic of a longer conversation. Is that to your point? There's no need necessarily now for Cyber Monday. Everybody's not only got good Internet access at home, they've got good Internet Internet access in their hands. But we have become so habituated to that day being a major sales day, and both on the consumer and the retailer side that it continues to grow on. The psychology of this often drives a lot of the behavior even beyond the pricing or the deal's or anything that our model might pick up. So to your point, you know, I think if you just looked at the data, you might think, Hey, look, this is all going to smooth out a little bit. But people continue to think about those days as the big days to go shopping, Uh, online and offline. Jason: [18:47] Interesting. So you're saying people might be willing to go shopping even when it's slightly irrational? Interesting. No. Thank God for that, by the way. Yeah, and along those lines, it feels like folks have been trying thio kind of make hay in some of those other days. Taylor: [18:54] It's a new fighting I came up with. Yeah. Jason: [19:04] Like for a while now, that that Saturday has been small business Saturday. Taylor: [19:09] You okay? Jason: [19:10] Andi, I think there's a couple of people trying to grab Sunday now, too, right? It is. I'm trying to, uh. Taylor: [19:15] Yeah. Super Sunday has a bunch of different cuts at it. Exactly. And there are big days. Now we're talking about, uh, you know, there, there. Three and 1/2. Almost $4 billion each. This is It's massive any other day of the year and we would be having a conversation about a particular $3 billion day. But they just come fast and furious between November and Christmas. Scot: [19:42] Do you do? You have? Ah, At the end of the season, everyone has a different word. Just be like free shipping day. And then I think it's called Green Dares. But you guys, what is what is last year like? Was there a bump? And is it? How does that compare to, like, Cyber Monday? Taylor: [19:51] And. [19:58] So we said we would see ramps toward the end of last year, and I don't have the last little couple days to hand. But they were more closer to sort of Super Saturday and or even smaller than that in the $2 billion range. Um, as you had in there. They're not the ones bigger ripped last year, but two earlier point. I'm really curious to see if we don't see a big bump. Uh, come to the 20th 19. Scot: [20:24] Yeah. Hey, this is just kind of came to me. So it's if you don't have an answer. I understand. So last year we grew 16%. This year we're growing 14. Where do you think that 2% Delta is coming from? Is it just kind of across the board, or is it a certain category underperforming? You have any Any thoughts on the. Taylor: [20:44] I have some thoughts, and I think it'll be really interesting conversation to have in a few weeks. But the the, um, the couple things, first of all the models telling us 14 ish, Um, my gut says there might be more upside risk there than downside. So somebody get my clothes. What seems to be the case so far in the data is that there wasn't proportionately even bigger push into the early season. Um, because of, uh, a CZ people moved into Thanksgiving on on that Wednesday, some of his deals move forward. But honestly, if you just if you just look at the math, which is, uh, what we particularly good at, the just pushing the season shorter between Thanksgiving and Christmas is about a $1,000,000,000 which is, you know, 50 bases, 50 of those basis points, uh, arm or sorry on its own. So between a little bit of merging of error and that some of those basis points and ah, uh, and not the shock of all these earlier deals that got everybody accelerated between those three things you kind of get to, uh, the delta. Scot: [21:53] So the jury's still out. Kind of depends on how the models perform and how people react to those missing days. Taylor: [21:59] Yeah, exactly. If we get a big surge and everybody. Service comes off of the off several Monday and thinks, Gosh, I got a sprint toward, uh, toward River Last shipping days game. I'll be very different than everybody feel like. Gosh, I blew my budget on all those early deals. Scot: [22:16] Yeah, cool. It wouldn't be a Jason and Scott show if we didn't talk a little bit about Amazon. And I understand if you can't talk specifically about anyone, retailer or whatnot. But any insights into how Amazons holidays going big, they put out their annual release that said something like Vague like We sold hundreds of millions of dollars. You know, third parties did great. So so it always befuddles Wall Street when they kind of without these puzzle boxes for them to figure, figure out. Taylor: [22:45] Yeah. J. J. Abrams doing the press releases? No, I, uh you said you wouldn't be your podcast if you didn't ask about Amazon. It wouldn't be a doubIe response. I didn't say we don't talk about particular retailers, but what I can say eyes we do track the biggest and the smallest against each other Really looking at. Especially as you see two big trends that big. A lot of discussion about big, big retailers pushing, couldn't collect, pushing one day shipping, having great deals. Ah, and a lot of democratization of, uh, e commerce. As you know, a lot of art form. We have five farm, those others that makes that much easier for people to bring businesses to the market. So those two forces air going on, um, in the on the average, uh, you see big companies outperforming smaller ones in terms of growth. So if you compare November an average day in November to an average day in October for the big companies they're up about, these are $1,000,000,000 plus companies. [23:42] They're up about 87% in sales, whereas the smaller companies in the 50 million lower range. So these are the small ones are up only about 43% and some of it is. It's coming from the East from the data, at least, is coming from two things. One is the larger companies are much better at mobile conversions, that 80% better at taking a customer and bringing them to purchase on a phone than the smaller companies. And consequently, they get about 10% more of their share. Their revenue from those phones and the way that I reviewed the data is that if you're a consumer and you are going to a big retailer, that big retailer has a number of advantages, including a wide set of products wide set of, promotions generally really good, aye, aye at connecting you with those promotions, and a really the slick, speedy checkout process that they worked on really hard. And for the smaller companies, they obviously have quite a selection. Some of them haven't figured out how to turn customers, uh, into buyers swiftly. But the last thing I would say this is the most important part about this is I am talking about the averages. So, you know, in the smaller companies, there's a lot of entry, a lot of people trying things out on a lot of exit, and there are within that average a huge number of small companies who are just blowing the doors off. It's just that on average, they're not doing as well as the very big ones. Jason: [25:09] Sure that makes sense. Um, you talked a little bit about Omni Channel. I wanted to jump into that for just a second. That seems like an area where, in particular, a lot of the big companies have made major visible investments in their infrastructure. So of course you know, Target, but shipped. And then now that's heavily integrated. And they have rich like same day delivery and curbside pickup options available across all their mobile platforms. Wal Mart, you know, has has done a bunch for general merchandise Omni Channel. But even more for grocery, um, and curbside pick up and and all of those things even, um ah, the Amazon. You know, although much more footprints are starting to get a little better at Omni Channel with their with their small footprint of retail stores, um is any indication of that's paying off? Like Are you guys ableto to see an Omni Channel transaction versus a pure digital transaction? And is there any like is the rate of growth of those Omni Channel transactions faster than overall? Taylor: [26:15] Oh, yeah. So we're we're seeing a Z, said rumor, roughly in the 14 to 16% range growth for the overall market place, but for by online picker in starker POTUS. Another word that's up but, like 40% for the season. So it's way outstripping overall sales. And what's also really interesting is we see that this has a little bit to do with larger, so small. But we see that companies that offer, uh oh, this, uh, 20% better at converting, then companies that don't offer both us. So people are coming there specifically for that capability, or at least finding that capability incredibly valuable to them. At my my thought on this is Look, we got a phone in her hand that has moved the display window experience into your hand. It's moved the checkout experience into your hands, and everybody just wants to move that fulfillment. That one thing in between the human experience, closer and closer and you know, one day shipping is great, but, uh, sometimes it's just easier if you drive down in about 10 minutes and go pick up the thing you just saw and knew you wanted. [27:25] And plus these guys are. You know what we see in the survey data to is it? This is good for the brick and mortar stores that not only are they know is you guys know that not only are they making people making purchases online and sitting in the car and getting that that pickup, they're also going to the store and buying another thing, could they thought of it. I'm driving that That makes it different. Step for brick and mortar stores as well. Scot: [27:47] Wrinkle. Um, you've hit on this a little bit, but let's talk about mobile. So, um, do you guys, when I talk about mobile, I tend to take tablet out, and it seems like you do to you. You seem to be explicitly calling out smartphone. Um, so you mentioned. I think I can't remember. Was it black Friday? You said it was. 1/3 of the sales came from a bull. Ah, talk us through any other kind of insights on the mobile side. Taylor: [28:12] Sure s o your point. We tried. We tried crier years to be really disciplined about mobile version smartphone. We've been a little acts this year because tablets are decreasing share. So smartphone really had started crossed That that 1/3 threshold on major days in terms of dollars spent, it was always has been for the past several years. The majority visits were coming from phone, so people were doing initiating their shopping. We had this challenge empire years and still have some do now that they weren't closing the deal. Uh, from that we'll visit either not at all or going to the desktop to purchase. That gap continues to close. In fact, on Christmas this year, we expect to have the first day in us where the majority of online purchases actually come through a phone. As people aren't going to their computers and their families are around, they're actually using boats. That purchase and the things that are driving this, at least in the data that we see are two really interesting and related points. One is that time per visit is going down rapidly. So, consumer, they're coming. They're not messing around. [29:20] They're looking for and expecting the product that they that they came for at least a product to buy. And some of that is going to be in part because your connection speed have gotten faster. Screens gotten bigger processes were faster, but also retailers have gotten much better at streamlining that process. I'm the mobile phone, and consequently, the amount of money that people are spending per minute per second on a mobile phone continues to skyrocket month after month, year after year. As people just get faster making those purchases, especially with a lot of them. You check out options that make make it easier than, say, trying to type in the numbers on your credit card. Jason: [30:03] Fascinating. The, um that would be cool if, uh, Christmas did end up being the first, like, majority mobile day. Um, I was also truce. You mentioned something earlier. Um, that sounds like that. I call it a mobile gap when traffic side, but conversions lower. And it sounds like that mobile gap is getting lower for big companies. And you said it a couple reasons why that might be, um, in general. Do you feel like that? Like, Is that mobile gap? Um, getting narrower across the border. Is it only for large companies that they're they're being successful closing that gap? Taylor: [30:39] Well, I think large companies again, it has to do it so that the broad, um uh, you know, there's a much broader array of outcomes and smaller companies than larger ones, so it's harder to paint them with the same brush. The large companies obviously have focused on this. Figure it out. They can track per second per user per region per item, how much time consumers are willing to tolerate and they can achieve those things down. If nothing else, would I just bring more machines online? Smaller businesses don't always have that ability, but the platforms, one of which Toby has but the Platform three Commerce are making that whole process from visit to fulfillment and even marking channel much, much more streamlined, especially for small businesses. Who, uh, we think about that a little bit and focus on what their consumers experience needs to be. Jason: [31:34] Got it. So one A transition briefly to profitability. So last year I feel like the narrative would have been, ah, you know, a big growth year, a jump from the previous year. But a lot of people felt like it was Ah, that was partly attributed thio heavier than usual promotions, which meant it actually ended up being, you know, not a phenomenal profitability year. Um, and so this year, we're seeing the rate of growth slow a little bit from last year. Is there any reason to believe that people are being more conservative on promotions or are you have any insights about how we're gonna come out from promotions and profitability perspective? Taylor: [32:18] So, you know, I'll be honest with you were really good about figure out the revenue. We're really good about throwing out prices. We are generally missing that third piece of costs that allows you to talk about profitability. But I'll tell you what. I was thinking about this this morning and last night and looking at, but began for a bunch of different angles in our data and frankly, that the short answer is the results are mixed. So we did. If you asked me a week or so ago, uh or even to I would have said, Look, the discount seem to be moving forward, especially in electronics. Um, and so, you know, maybe the maybe the profit margins are slimming, but then we started. Look at toys and toys. Bottom out, quickly. Um, uh, you know, maybe once the Toys R Us process was was through the toy discounts didn't go is deep. This year's they did last year, and we're seeing something we saw. For instance, we elected appliances, appliances discounts for a little later last year. So exactly how the profit margins are gonna go. Hard to say. But the, um, you're in the revenue looks really strong. So, you know, I think the jury is ah, bit out where possibilities go in. But I don't for consumers see, a year where we're like have massively deeper discounts than the last year. We just have them earlier and on particular product. Jason: [33:38] Got that? Uh, that makes sense, and I agree. It's It's really hard to get a clear picture until well after the fact on the promotions, because there's like there's promotions and pricing effects and all these other things. But one thing that seems like it might be coming to play a little bit more on profitability this year is profitability like there's a couple Evers one. Is that pricing a promotion? Another is the cost of acquisition. Um, and I do feel like folks. There's a lot of folks that used the Adobe marketing cloud, um, for further cost of acquisition. Like, Are you guys seeing any trends around higher advertising rates or spend rates than previous years, or is that not something you guys are looking at you? Taylor: [34:18] So we don't. We have looked at overall investment in advertising. That could be a fairly complicated thing to grab to look into. But we have looked at performance and individual, Um, your ad level pricing and what's interesting is we definitely see if you're if you're advertising, especially in video, but also on display or search. You're gonna see costs go up, um, a bit as everybody sort of pores online and wants to wants to acquire customers in the video room. That's about 23% higher CBN's. But when we look at performance, metrics does go up by an even greater amount. So, uh, you know, again in video that we're pressed about 20% performance in terms of, uh, viewable completions of videos are going up 30%. Or we see, for instance, your email efficacy goes up quite a bit over that that same time frame. So we should We haven't reached a point of diminishing return earns uh, in those areas yet where prices start outstripped performance growth, and I think there's a lot of opportunity for customer acquisition there on dhe. Advertisers and marketers have figured that out and are pouring the money, and now when it's, uh, it's most productive. Jason: [35:32] That that makes sense, and that's gonna be a great place to leave it, because we have, ah, slightly exceeded are a lot of time for this show. But as always, if we didn't get to something that folks want to talk about, your welcome and I hit us up on Twitter or leaves the question on our Facebook page, as always, have you enjoyed the show? We'd really appreciate it if you, um, jump on Thio iTunes and give us that five star review were also nominated for this vendor of the year award in our category, So I'll put a link in the show notes. If you could take a couple minutes and vote for us, we'd really appreciate that. But Taylor really appreciate you being on the show and sharing the data. I know it's a busy week for you. Taylor: [36:10] Thank you guys so much. Really appreciate the opportunity. Scot: [36:13] Thanks, Taylor. Jason: [36:13] Until next time. Happy commercing.

According to the Adobe Digital Insights team, consumers spent ~$8 Billion on Cyber Monday this year. With an increasing digital world we discuss how retailers are bringing people in store, what are the hot items of 2018, and how your gift decisions may determine your generation age.

Well, after the bomb Amazon dropped yesterday announcing an arsenal of Alexa-enabled devices – from microwaves, cars devices, wall clocks, outlet plugs, subwoofers – it’s easy to see we’re a quickly moving into a voice-first world. But the reason for all these new voice-enabled devices is because we kind of like talking to them, according to a recent study from Adobe called The State of Voice Assistants. Taylor Schreiner, director of Adobe Digital Insights, shared some of the key finding from the study with me for this series.

Mark Anquillare, Chief Operating Officer of Verisk Analytics, on the need for private flood insurance and insuring a nuclear attack. Ken Fisher, the founder, chairman and co-CIO of Fisher Investments, on bitcoin and tax plan.  Tamara  Gafney, Senior Director at Adobe Digital Insights, on holiday tech sales forecast. Burt Flickinger,  Managing Director at Strategic Resource Group, on holiday retail sales. 

EP060 - Holiday Preview w/ Adobe's Tamara Gaffney Tamara Gaffney is the Principal Analyst and Director for Adobe Digital Insights (ADI).  ADI aggregates data from all of adobe's products and customers, and is able to provide insight about various markets.  In particular, Adobe Analytics (formerly Omniture) is used by over 5400 e-commerce sites, representing 55m skus, and tracking $7.50 out of every $10 spent on e-commerce in North America.   Adobe is forecasting that e-commerce will grow 11% this holiday season (November and December).  This is a lower forecast than a number of other sources: eMarketer: 17% e-commerce, 3.3% all retail Deloitte: 17-19% e-commerce, 4% all retail NRF: 3.6% all retail (no e-comm breakout) Comscore: 16-19% Forrester: 13% Tamara attributes the lower forecast to slower spending coming out of the US election.  In particular heavily populated states like New York and California that strongly supported Hillary Clinton (who ultimately lost the election), are spending at a much lower rate than the forecast models would predict.   So far this represents over $800M in lost e-commerce spending (as of Nov 17th), that Adobe believes will negatively effect the overall holiday season. We also discussed mobile, omni-channel, singles day, and a variety of other interesting topics. You can follow the Adobe Digital Insights website, and subscribe to their newsletter for frequent updates throughout the holiday season. Don't forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes. Episode 60 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday November 17, 2016. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, SVP Commerce & Content at Razorfish, and Scot Wingo, Founder and Executive Chairman of Channel Advisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

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