EP285 - 22021 Full Year and Holiday Data Deep Dive The US Dept of Commerce December Advanced Retail Sales Data is out, which gives us a full look at 2021 and the 2021 holiday season. So Episode 285 is a data deepdive into 2021. If you want to follow along, we've made a deck with all the data available at https://retailgeek.com/2021-commerce-recap Data Sources US Retail & E-Com Sales Data: US Dept of Commerce E-Commerce Estimates: eMarketer Retail Foot Traffic Data: Placer.ai Web Traffic Data: Similar Web Holiday Estimates: Adobe, Salesforce, Mastercard Episode 285 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday Jan 20th, 2022. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 285 being recorded on Thursday January 20th 2022 that's a heck of a lot of 2012's. I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your Cohoes Sky Wingo. Scot: [0:41] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott chaussures Jason is kind of a shame we neither of us were able to make it in our F but, one of the things I don't miss is every year that I've gone to in our f for the last three times I've went I've had trouble getting there or been stuck there so I think then our F should use this opportunity to move that show out of January and maybe look at something like March or something if they're going to be in New York. Jason: [1:09] Or to the like Bahamas or something. Scot: [1:12] Yeah even better yeah let's make it a destination of it. Jason: [1:17] You know you have my vote I'm not sure you have a majority of votes see you if you have mine that would be awesome. Scot: [1:24] Yeah just watching and it seemed like some folks went and then they had a lot of cancellations so seemed like it was in kind of one of those weird. Hybrid states were if you went and then, person you are going to go see present canceled you sat there in a room with people watching a zoom so that's number Super satisfying but I do think it seemed like some folks you and I know got together and had some dinners and had fund so hopefully that was that was good for everyone. Jason: [1:50] Yeah I had a little bit of foam oh I think you know some people I would have liked to see you know I saw you know social media of them getting together and whatnot and. It's just super bad luck I have a feeling if this show was a month later it would be a lot less controversial that traveled to. Scot: [2:09] Yeah and what did you want to talk about this week. Jason: [2:14] Well you know if we had gone to NRF one of the things that I always like to do it in our f is kind of check in with a lot of our co-workers in the industry and kind of you know get a consensus, about how the year ended up for everyone and what they thought the big issues were going to be for 20 21. So since we didn't get to do that at shop at NRF I thought maybe we could do it on this podcast for our listeners. Scot: [2:42] Yeah that sounds good and then I know you always put together a little for your clients kind of the summary deck and I know that's hard for our podcast listeners so do you have a way to solve that. Jason: [2:55] Yeah so what I thought I would do I put together like a 36 slide deck completely full of numbers and what I thought I would do is describe all of the graphs on the podcast. Scot: [3:09] Sounds good that sounds good and it's going to be a we'll go through it and intricate detail data point by day. Jason: [3:14] Yeah because the one complaint I get about the show is that it's not hard enough to listen to. Scot: [3:18] That's that's from your mom. Jason: [3:22] So that probably isn't going to work but here so here's what I did think I do like instead of, just charging the fortune that we charge clients to go through this presentation I thought I would make a version of the whole deck available to all our listeners so in the event you do want to follow along with the visuals and see the actual data, we will put a link in the show notes you can hit pause for a second, you can open up the deck and I will tell you what slides were talking about in case you want to follow along but but Scott keep me honest here we'll try to make sure we're talking about in a way that you can kind of just, just listen along on the podcast and then look at the deck later if that's the way you prefer to do it. Scot: [4:03] Yeah this is a good time if you like receiving awesome decks for your subscription here which is essentially free this is a good time to hit the five star review we always appreciate that and yeah because we because this is a audio medium we are going to paint pictures with our words and you will see the slides form before your very eyes almost like augmented virtual reality we're going to take you to the metaverse on this thing. Jason: [4:31] Exactly it's a meta verse deep dive into a retail in 2021 and let's jump right into it so. [4:42] Super quick recap last week the US Department of Commerce publishes published their December Advanced Data so that gives us the last month of data we need to see the whole year so it's super exciting for all of us get data Geeks because we now have a complete set of data the one thing to remember is. It's an advanced look and so it doesn't have the granularity of categories that we would like and one of the categories it doesn't have is e-commerce which is highly unfortunate so, the the Deep dive for the whole year with e-commerce broken out will actually be available in mid-February and that's also when they published their quarterly. They're q4u Commerce data which is a separate report so so we have most of the interesting facts there maybe a couple things that filter in last, next month but the top line if we add up all retail sales for 2021 we sold just over six point six trillion dollars of stuff last year which is eighteen percent growth over 20. [5:53] And it's 22 percent growth over 2019 and so, if you do have the deck and you were looking at slide for I show you the last 30 years of growth and the thing that will stand out at you is that this year's growth. Is is almost double the average growth we've had in any of the last 30 years so unprecedentedly good year. Scot: [6:20] This is all retail or not talking e-commerce has. Jason: [6:22] Yeah this is this is pure retail will we will double click into e-commerce a little bit later and you know reminder there's a lot of controversy about what the definition of retail is and so you'll see millions of different numbers out there and it's because. 11 data set has automobiles in it and one has doesn't one has gas in it and one doesn't you know they're all these different things I'm using. The unadulterated numbers from the US Department of Commerce so it does include automobiles it does include gas it does not include restaurants it's what we call, in a ICS code 44,000. Scot: [7:03] Cool good old code it 44,000. Jason: [7:07] If anyone wants to catch me offline and ask for like a different spin I'm happy to talk about how the numbers change when you change your definition but I think that's too complicated for for the podcast but so before I go any further. Like is that does that surprise you at all it has is that has that been your perception that these are Monster year that 2020 and 2021 more Monster years for retail because I feel like that's not necessarily the narrative we've been getting in some of the Commerce media. Scot: [7:37] Yeah no it feels that is a surprise it makes sense and I'm looking at the slide but it makes sense that we were effectively spring-loaded right because you had the shutdown people really, you know couldn't or didn't buy things from March 20 through and so there's put up demand but what's interesting is you really don't see, unlike the Great Recession about it no nine you don't see a retraction before this the splurge and this is way way bigger than that period of time so it is it is surprising. Jason: [8:08] Yeah so so, in aggregate retail did awesome and then on slide 5 I give you this fun way of looking at the data that you and I helped help kind of evolved together but the idea is that we give you a separate line chart for 2019 2020 and 2021 and so you can kind of see. You know how the year stack up against each other and you know. [8:35] 20:19 was the unaffected by the pandemic than 20/20 happen and of course there was this huge dip in April when the pandemic first got real for everyone because the NBA cancelled games and it recovered super quick and then you know the rest of 20/20 was actually above 2019 so retail grew. From 2019 and 2020 even though we were like right in the thick of the pandemic and then in 2021 retail really shot up and the. The hypothesis here is there are two things that really caused this number one there was a bunch of. Economic stimulus that was poured into the economy right like there's a lot of extra money available and consumers were in, like generally really good Financial shape so there was a lot of potential to spend and then a lot of the things that might have gotten some of that money experiences like travel in restaurants and vacations, we're not available in the most consumers so instead of paying money for a gym you bought a Peloton instead of going to a restaurant you bought groceries and instead of going on vacation you you got new patio furniture right and so you know the combination of, more money and less things to spend and on ended up being super favorable to retail overall. Scot: [9:59] Yeah that makes it so that it's really a factor of the stimulus is what you're saying. Jason: [10:06] Yeah and we'll talk about the downside of that if they end of this podcast but so that's the industry average and I would remind everyone to be cautious. In thinking about averages because, very few retailers experience the average right like in general there were big winners and losers based on categories and I'm for the purposes of the podcast we're not going to talk about category growth or foot traffic. From 2022 2021 because 2020 was such a weird year because of the pandemic I actually am going to jump ahead in the deck to slide 9 which is where we start talking about, comparing. Last year to 2019 so like what the cumulative changes were over the from before the pandemic to you know at the end of the second year of the pandemic so. Over that two-year growth we grew 22% as I mentioned earlier and so I actually. [11:09] Put together look at what the average to your growth was every year for the last 30 years and in general the average two-year growth is around 10 to 12 percent so 22% is, unprecedentedly High. Two year growth and remember like you know there was in 2008 there was this recession and there was negative growth so you'd think the the year-over-year from that recession would be super high but but this. 2020 and 2021 year is basically the the best years of retail in our lifetime. And so then I go to slide 10 where I show you how fast each category grew and remember if the industry grew 22%. You really want to be growing faster than that 22% so the categories that one the grew faster than 22% we're your new favorite category automobiles. So they grew at 24 percent which was mildly surprising to me because you, you know early on you would assume Car Sales slowed down significantly and then of course there have been all these chip shortages that's made it slightly hard to buy cars, and yet cars were still one of the bright spots does that surprise you at all or were you totally dialed into that. Scot: [12:30] Yeah the counter is the used markets on fire and they're marking the cars up so there's kind of like an inflation of car prices in there that I think. One of the reasons so if there is a car dealers are taking these pretty exorbitant markups on those, which is kind of short-sighted but that's what they're doing and yeah so so it doesn't surprise me too much when you know what surprises me is where did it all go so we had this like tsunami you know anything about retail it's you know it hasn't been over. You know like what, 10% for a long time and then you've got in the two year ago comparison you get up to maybe like 15% so it's like a surge year where did it show up like I can't think. You know amongst the public companies the Walmarts the targets and that kind of stuff I don't really see it I don't see them just like, blowing up expectations and saying oh my God so much money flooded into our coffers. I kind of wonder where it went or maybe it's going to show up and you know in when you when you chart it out it looks like a lot of it came at the end of 21 so maybe we haven't seen it come out and the public markets but it's going to be you know I kind of wonder where it went. Jason: [13:42] Yeah so I would argue that we are seeing it like in the big companies in the Amazon Walmart Target Kroger and certainly Home Depot and dicks we are seeing it. And so I think the car one is a harder one to see because the car you know the actual car dealers are so fragmented because they're all franchisees. Scot: [14:05] Carvanha has seen it carvanha. Jason: [14:06] The Used Car Guys for sure saw it so let's come back to that in one second let's talk about the other two categories that were above the industry average building materials and garden supplies right so that's Home Depot and Lowe's and you know they're there to your growth Stacks were like significantly up from previous years and again. Part of the reason they would be up as people spend a lot more money on their homes when they were traveling last and then and so that category group thirty percent over two years and then Sporting Goods grew 38 percent over two years so that's you know dicks and sporting goods and and those folks and they were seeing like like I want to say the two year growth stack on dicks would be is like 94% or something so. Scot: [14:56] Yeah. Jason: [14:59] So and then the categories that still like had, by historic standards great growth but did not grow as fast as the industry average grocery stores so only grew 16 percent I have to say that surprised me a little bit because I would have. Expected you know with the hit that restaurants took that the grocery would have outperformed the industry average but you know it doesn't seem like it. It did and then, furnishings and furniture and Home Furnishings grew at 21 percent so about the industry average and again because of all the money people spend on their homes I kind of would have expected that to be higher so those two things. Surprise me a little bit. And then the the categories that were you know more significantly hurt by the pandemic like gas and clothing, you know clothing was still up 13% gas was up 15%. And that's what hurt looks like right like so you know up 13 percent against the industry average of 22 percent like that's. You know kind of the the low end and you know I think if you talk to apparel people during the pandemic they would have said like oh we're you know we're experiencing Armageddon if you compare this 13% growth too you know any of the last five or six years for apparel this would have been a great year. [16:23] And then the most inexplicable to me of all and I think it just has to do with the mix in this category is Electronics and appliances are only up 6%. And I I'm totally open if you have a hypothesis cop but like I think everybody bought a lot of extra Home Tech. So especially the beginning of the pandemic everyone's buying extra computers for their kids for homeschooling and everybody's updating their work from home stuff, and you know over the two-year course of the pandemic you know everybody remodeled their kitchen about new appliances so I'm a little befuddled. Why that you know that category is literally the bottom of the Barrel in this the US Department of Commerce data and it's only six percent of growth. Scot: [17:13] Yeah let me look at the year. Jason: [17:18] I have a so while you're looking I'll just I'll tell you I my. My unfortunate hypothesis so there's an enormous flaw in the US Department of Commerce data and that flaw is that they call e-commerce or non stores. A category. So you're either a Peril sale if you sell the clothes through a store or your Anon store sale if you sell the clothes online, and so if you sell a TV out of Best Buy you're in electronic sale but if you sell the TV online for curbside pickup. You're a. Non-store sale and so I didn't mention this earlier but the category that actually grew the most by far during the pandemic is non store sales which are 38% and we, have any good way to know how that breaks down by category so my hypothesis is the electronics category actually probably did better but the it over index to sales going online and therefore it gets office gated in this US Department of Commerce data. Scot: [18:32] Yeah and then accentuating this is the supply chain problems hashtag Supply pain where you know a lot of that stuff you would go into the store for especially big appliances where you kind of want to see it and touch it and feel it before you order it, I know on the order of 10 people that cannot get washers and dryers. So you know that that was all like this big appliances are in and they've been waiting since you know, Q3 last year to get these things it's insane so that could have you know so you have this kind of double edged double whammy of a lot of stuff moving online or non-store from the store in the store or struggling because they can't get inventory for the shelves and you know every electronics item has a chip. Jason: [19:20] Yeah so I do like that I will say it from the data it looks like more of the group The Slowdown was in, 20/20 than 2021 which like kind of argues it like. Scot: [19:35] Yeah attribution. Jason: [19:37] Yeah so but I don't I don't know and so then so that so far everything we've talked about is US Department of Commerce data so I'm also super interested in how many people walked into a store so I asked our friends at Placer AI which is a, a company that has access to a huge panel of consumers that have software on their phones and it tracks where they go anonymously and they use that data to forecast. Retail foot traffic across the country and so I put together a data set so on Slide. [20:21] 11 of the deck you can see how the 20 21 foot traffic every month compared to 2019 and so for the first half of 2021, um foot traffic in retail was still down between 10% and 0%, versus 2019 so fewer people are going to stores in 2021 then we're going to stores before the pandemic. And then by July we had our first kind of Positive Growth since the pandemic so July and August we're kind of up for and six percent over 20 19 respectively, then we had another slight dip in September and then we had a pretty prominent dip in December of 2021 which was probably the Omicron variant kicking in. [21:12] But so in aggregate. There are still fewer people walking in a brick-and-mortar stores in the United States of America in 2021 than walked in a brick-and-mortar stores in 2019. Scot: [21:24] There are some it almost like it seems to be correlated an inverse correlation with case count right so in the summer cases were kind of low everything was feeling pretty good and then we had kind of the surge the Omicron surged kind of come back and here at the very tail end of 21 we saw a really plummet. Jason: [21:42] Yeah no for sure and there are lots of people that I have been correlating these statistics to case counts or hospitalizations or. Or mortality or any of those things in there are strong correlations so you're certainly right. [21:56] Um so then I I said all right well let's double-click on some of the categories that might be interesting and one category that I mainly double clicked on for you was Automotive so for folks that don't know Automotive is the biggest. Category of retail spending and which kind of makes sense because it's the. The highest ticket item so 1.5 trillion dollars in in car sales in 2021 which is 23 percent of all retail spending so we said 6.6%. Six point six trillion in retail 1.5 trillion of it was cars and that's up as we said earlier 24% from 2019 and then I give you kind of the, the shape of that Demand right and and you know so again, the best month in the history of car sales was April of 2021 and then it's been, tapering off a little bit since then but still up significantly from 2020 and 2021 is up nominally from from 2019 so a very vibrant year even though per your point you know it's actually hard to get vehicles right so a lot of this this. Increase in sales is an increase in price points and inflation versus unit sold but I think it is a little bit of both. Scot: [23:20] Yeah the other changes there's a pull forward because what dealers have started doing is pre sailing Vehicles so it's almost like an auction where they'll say Jason I know you want this IMA Mustang and we got three coming in and August but if you want one of those I'm going to need you to, pay me to there now I don't know how that correlates to these numbers but we're seeing this big pull forward of the consumer dollars into the auto category because of this pre-sale thing where, historically it was you would go test-drive negotiate and then buy the car and it was sitting on the lot the inventory model is kind of flipped right now which is interesting. Jason: [23:59] Yeah yeah and I know not not related to sales velocity necessarily but another interesting thing is. The amount of test drives per sale is way down like it used to be like three test drives per sale and now it might be less than one test drive per sale. Scot: [24:17] Yeah it's kind of it's fun being in the auto category because some in some ways I feel like I've seen the movie before right so for example remember when Zappos came out and they disrupted the shoe category by saying free 365 returns, well then everyone would just buy would say well sometimes I'm an 11 sometimes in 11 half and 10 half I'll just order all three in return to. So then everyone had to adapt that new model because consumers flocked to it and the car industry carvanha has had a seven day return for a vehicle and that's how they got around the test drive and everyone laughed at him and was like why would you do that that's ridiculous and then the pandemic it and everyone had to kind of adopt that model so that's that's gotten rid of the test drive most dealers now have had to adapt to that that more customer friendly model and effectively have like a seven day return window. Jason: [25:06] Yeah and you know you've heard me say this before but I've been following the ottoman of category relatively closely and the grocery category for two big reasons they're they're the two biggest pieces of consumer spending but also before the Pandemic those were the two categories that were released digitally disrupted like a small percentage of cars were sold online a small percentage of groceries sold online and so those two categories were the most disrupted by digital they they got the most digital fastest as a result of the pandemic so I've been super interesting because per your point a lot of the learnings that we've had over the last 20 years in the apparel industry in the consumer electronics Industry and the home industry like are now you know playing out in an accelerated basis in the automobile industry and in the grocery industry. Scot: [25:57] Yeah 11 cool example and I know you know these guys so yeah I tell folks a lot about how Walmart budget and it was kind of like this this analog kind of old-school company building bringing deep digital DNA and we would see a lot of that not emotive category and sure enough Discount Tire which is a brick-and-mortar tire shop family-owned what are they like 100 years old or something like that and they just bought Tire Rec which is kind of the you know the online incumbent and they're merging those two companies together so it's funny because everyone thinks I'm kind of a Nostradamus of this stuff because but it's really just, the exact same thing we saw happen in e-commerce with other categories as happening in the automotive category. Jason: [26:42] Groundhog Day yeah sometimes when I'm impatient I really have to avoid telling clients so I know you need to figure this out for yourself but I know how it is. Scot: [26:52] Yeah. Jason: [26:54] But so I mentioned the grocery category that's the next category that I want to talk about briefly so now we're on slide 14 of the deck, and groceries the second biggest category of consumer spending it's fourteen percent of all retail spending so it's, 901 billion dollars in 2021 and and I mentioned grocery was up pretty significantly up 16 percent but but that you know that is a little less than the industry average and I give folks that that same kind of three-year year-over-year graph if they want to see it but then a bonus data breakdown I always like to do for the grocery industry is on slide 16 and this is a, a line graph with two data points grocery store sales and restaurant sales, and what's interesting about that is for like a pretty significant period of time about a 10-year period. Sales were split almost 50/50 between restaurants and grocery stores so all the the American calories were kind of divided 50/50 between McDonald's on Applebee's and Walmart and Kroger and in the pandemic exactly what you would expect to happen grocery sales shot up and restaurant sales you know took a nosedive. [28:13] Over the course of the pandemic they've moved back closer and kind of come summer of 2021 they actually came back to where they used to be so they were kind of level again and we were like I wonder if that, if if that Gap is over but then Omicron appears to have open that Gap backup so at the moment there is still about a ten billion dollar a month discrepancy between spending on on groceries and spending on restaurant so potentially bad news for the restaurants. Scot: [28:48] Yeah well you wouldn't know it at my restaurants or so they're they're they're super busy. Jason: [28:53] Nice. Scot: [28:55] Could be you know we you know it's interesting traveling around the country a little bit now it's like living in 50 different. Countries the way they're covid policies are so you go to you go to Florida and Texas and everything's just open and normal and then you go to the north east or the west coast and things are very much shut down, and here in our kind of a kind of in the middle but we're still struggling our restaurants part of it could be that they're just closing all the time so we have several restaurants that just can't keep their doors open due to this kind of constant struggle between in team members employees and supply chain so you'll you'll go and they'll have to close early because they didn't have anyone to work that shift and then you'll go and they'll be like we're out of you know it'll be a salad place in they'll be out of lettuce you're like yeah guess may not have needed open but they'll be in there with nothing to do so so it's really. The economy is having a really hard time it's really kind of sputtering right now across those things which which could fall into restaurants and bars you know this, looking into this year into 22. There's a lot of grocery stores are have bare shelves and I don't I was going to actually because you're the grocery guy I don't know what's broken in the supply chain there because obviously we don't rely on China for you know, a lot of that stuff so it's not the that specific thing but that seems to have really become discombobulated as well. Jason: [30:21] Yeah so yeah for sure there it turns out like there is for a, a fair segment of the grocery products there is an international component right like so there are weird ingredients that we do depend a lot on on Imports for right so you know even if the Mondelez cookies are made in the US the sugar for the Mondelez cookies is not and so it it is possible for the shipping to to have an impact on Oreo availability it just it tends to be delayed because it's it's more the ingredient than the finished goods that that is getting in. Scot: [31:01] Catching you know maybe the package. Jason: [31:03] The cpg guys even more so right so a lot of the chemicals that get used in cpg products and a lot of the the, the packaging like blue ink for a while was one of the the the constraining factors and so you know, Brands did have a hard decision to make do we like change the color of our packaging so we keep stay on the shelf or do we you know try to stay true to our brand and wait for morning. Which are not decisions you imagine ever have having to make. Um and then you know grocery is have its groceries a very fragile ecosystem margins are really thin and so. More so than other categories of retail the wage inflation has a Major Impact in it it actually. There's a low-wage workers all the way along that supply chain and so you know a big thing that takes out. Domestic food is you know there's a round of covid at the meat processing plant. And that that can you know be a big Regional hit I walked into a breakfast place last weekend and they were out of eggs, and I'm like wait a minute I haven't heard about an egg shortage or like are we having an egg shortage and the guys I know are our manager just screwed up the hole. [32:27] Yeah but I was I was with you I guess yeah what it's questionable why you open if you're a breakfast, restaurant and you don't have any eggs or you should at least put a vegan sign up or something I don't know. So I always like to talk about a parallel because for a long time apparel is like one of the crown jewels of the retail category and people are super excited about that and you know there was an ERA when those were the best jobs so up, Peril is much more it's about five percent of retail sales it was 303 billion despite the fact that we all have been living in sweatpants for the last two years apparel sales were still up 13%, that definitely was a mostly due to a 2022 2021 recovery 2020 was a really bad year for apparel and it started to come back so apparel is one of the few categories on Slide, 18 where I give you the three-year graph of the the category it's one of the few categories where the 2020 sales were consistently below the 2019 sales and then 2021 they, they came back up to the top and you know one interesting fact about a parallel that I give you a data breakdown on 19 is. [33:41] Apparel has just been getting cheaper over time that in the 1990s apparel was seven percent of retail spending and now it's about four and a half percent of retail spending and that's a largely because good clothes are just less expensive and and you know the same closet that an American would have had in 1990 Hassel asks in 2022 and so if you're growing in the apparel industry you're you're growing in a shrinking Market which is you know always a challenge to do. Scot: [34:15] The entire Farm it's kind of shocking to see April 2020 you know touching effectively zero sales and monthly apparel that's crazy that I feel for those guys that must have been a scary. Jason: [34:28] For most of these graphs I change edit the scale to make the graph as high resolution as possible so the bottom of the graph isn't zero but in a Peril it absolutely is. Scot: [34:38] Yeah might as well be easier yeah. Jason: [34:40] Um and so, so that's enough of the categories I know a lot of listeners on our show were particularly interested in e-commerce I wanted to talk about e-commerce for a minute I mentioned the official. Breakdown of e-commerce you know we won't get for December until the middle of February we do get a, a kind of proxy for e-commerce which is called non store sales it is a it is a bigger bucket and it has more other stuff in it than just e-commerce but if I look at, the 11 months of internet data and then the the one month of non store sales data. It's pretty clear that we're going to come in around a trillion dollars in e-commerce sales so if the official numbers work out the way I think this will be the first year the e-commerce in the u.s. is over a trillion dollars. Um that would represent 16 percent of retail sales so 16 doesn't sound like a huge number, but again it just depends on what your denominator is that 16 percent is you know overall of retail which includes, cars which are getting more digital but still aren't very digital it includes gas which is you know only digital in a couple neighborhoods in San Francisco, um and so I you know you start pulling out some of those traditionally non-digital categories and you know. [36:02] That one trillion dollars represents about you know between 20 and 25% of all the categories that that you know people are willing to buy online and so it's become a very meaningful mix and obviously. It was the fastest growing because of the pandemic but inside 21 I show you the the. The three-year breakdown and the thing that's unique about e-commerce versus some of these other categories. [36:32] E-commerce head its monster growth in 2020. So the two-year growth numbers are still amazing but the one year growth numbers from 2021 to 2020 are not so great because we're comping against. [36:46] A monster year and it's been interesting because like Shopify stock is down because their comps aren't very good right but really there you know. They're comping against these monster numbers. You know lots of retailers are calling me right now and they're in a panic because they're not they didn't hit their goals and their their you know numbers are wrong and I'm like. I mean they're you know their numbers are soft and I'm like well but let's look at what really happened like you had unprecedented growth over the last two years and you're you know you potentially are. Thinking about it in the right way so on slide 22 I give you my, entire story of the world going digital in one slide and it's a little hard, hard to follow but basically what I show you is I show you the brick-and-mortar sales every year or every quarter and then on top of that I show you the e-commerce sales so you can see the e-commerce growing you can see kind of, as a portion of retail what it is and then I show you the rate of growth for for retail and e-commerce and until the pandemic we had a pretty consistent story, e-commerce was growing at like between 15 and 20% a year and brick-and-mortar was growing at three to four percent a year and that was pretty reliable, so then the pandemic happens and brick-and-mortar shrinks for a quarter and e-commerce explodes by you know over 40%. [38:10] And since that time they've been coming back and so for the first time in my life time in Q2 of 2021. Brick-and-mortar actually grew faster than e-commerce for the first time ever. Largely because of the you know they're comping against these these you know huge huge March of 2020 and you know I will see you when the data comes out next month but I have a feeling we're regressing pretty quickly now back to the kind of the the pre-pandemic rates of growth like we absorbed all this big e-commerce growth for two years and I can you know I kind of think we're gonna see e-commerce level back down at that 10 to 15 percent growth every quarter and and Retail drop back down to the 45 percent growth of quarter. Scot: [39:06] Well I think it's you know I think the silver lining for me is and I'm the e-commerce guy here is we had the Surge and then we actually did kind of even better than the surgeon you know you could have painted a story that said this will kind of flip – for your to as it kind of the subsides and then then we get back to normal so so the rising tide kind of stuck and created a new high and then we have continued to grow from there how does I know this this agitates you which is why I bring it up but you know this does not support you know that Theory out there that we pulled forward like five years of e-commerce. Jason: [39:43] Yeah no we we didn't and most of the evidence now is that. We're we're not even way ahead of where we would have been that like like we we got the sales early but that. The future growth is. Slightly slower as a result so that like five or 10 years from now you know will see this this blip on the graph but we'll kind of you know end up at the same same place we would have end up without the the pandemic is most people's projections that's less to true in some of these, digitally immature categories like grocery or automobiles where we really did probably pull in you know kind of accelerate two to three years into the future. And so I did on slide 23 I give you the our estimates of the 2021 e-commerce sales for a bunch of retailers because I'm often surprised people. Don't necessarily have. [40:52] The the best perception about how the relative size of all these retailers so these estimates come from emarketer there there gmv us estimate for Amazon is on the high side of all the estimates I. I look at but they have 20 21 gmv for Amazon and about three hundred seventy six billion. Walmart's the second largest e-commerce site by a lot at 60 billion so quite a bit smarter than Amazon. Until recently eBay would have been the second biggest site and Walmart's approaching twice as big as eBay now so they have shot past eBay. To get to 60 billion eBay's at 38 billion apple is at 37 billion and then like people people forget how big a player apple is alone I saw a funny stat that like. If the air buds alone the air pods alone were a company like it would be the 10th largest company. Scot: [41:50] Yeah that's crazy. Jason: [41:52] And so then you get like a Home Depot is almost 20 billion targets 8 almost 19 billion Best Buys on you know over 16 billion, Costco who's the bane of my existence Costco like pays the least attention to digital they you know always talk about how unimportant digital is and how they don't like it, and I tell everyone what a horrible mistake that is and then Costco continues to Excel and despite not trying they sell 14 billion dollars a year on line. [42:24] So then you can see the rest of the the top 15 on that slide on slide 23 if you're interested but it's interesting to understand the. The relative size of some of these companies. And so then you know one of the things that people always ask about is what did holiday look like particularly so the next section of this deck is, a double click on on holiday 2021 and so. I'm defining holiday as November and December sales that somewhat controversial because there's a lot of different ways to think about it. If we just look at November and December sales this holiday period was the the largest retail holiday ever. And it drew about 16.1%, which is vastly faster growth than any other holiday like the next biggest holiday was 10% so so kind of the same story for the whole year we get in Holiday it was a monster holiday, um You know again that depends a little bit on how you Define retail in RF likes to pull gas out of their number so they're there they would say holiday was 14 percent growth which is still. A monster number. So then I went back to our friends and place Rai and said hey what is foot traffic look like every week of holiday. [43:49] And that to me was kind of interesting so. You know December foot traffic was down overall I'll remind you because of Omicron but if we kind of look at the the weekly data for Holiday foot traffic was actually up versus 2019. Leading into the Thanksgiving weekend and so then the weekend that was way down was Thanksgiving weekend way less people went to stores on Black Friday, then went to stores in 2019 about six percent less, and then you know the rest of holiday was slightly above so if it weren't for the decline in Black Friday traffic I would say foot traffic and Retail was up about 2%, over 2019 but that Black Friday dip pulled the whole thing down to where we still aren't back to 2019 levels does that kind of make sense. [44:44] And so one of the things that is a common narrative about holiday and I've even contributed to this narrative is, man retailers are really trying to pull sales in and holiday starting earlier in October and you know holidays flattening it's less about these big, spikes on on Black Friday and Cyber Monday and so now that we have real data I'm like oh well let's see how, how that really held up in the first thing to know is. The early sales in October was kind of a myth like there was not an unusual spike in sales in October and so you know. [45:20] There was not a huge success in pulling sales into October and so then what I did is I went to similarweb which similar web has a data set of e-commerce site visits and what I like about that is, we can get much more accurate granular data than we can on like foot traffic or you know foot traffic or lucky to get weekly data but for e-commerce we can get daily number of sessions or unique visitors or things like that so I said hey let's take the hundred biggest e-commerce sites in the US and let's see total visits and let's compare, 2019 with 2021 and the first thing to remember is. You know Thanksgiving doesn't fall on the same day every year and so what I did is I normalize those I said let's not do November 1st through December 31st, let's do the 25 days before Black Friday in the 32 days after Black Friday so that we could kind of. Match up the the flow and what you'll see is there was a lot more traffic on e-commerce sites every day of holiday in 2021 than 20 then 20, except for two days Black Friday and Cyber Monday and Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2021 with still above. 2019 but they were nearly the same and so. The I guess what this would say is this partially Bears out our hypothesis. [46:48] E-commerce visits did level out like the traffic did get spread out to the whole 60 days more than ever before but those those two tent poles are still tent poles and they still are by far the busiest days, so I you know I definitely you know think that the narrative that like those Temple days don't matter anymore is kind of a misnomer and they you know they got nearly twice as many visits as a normal holiday day. Did that surprise you at all. Scot: [47:20] The surgeon the chart 21 is interesting at the end I think that's my procrastinator people. Jason: [47:28] So so yeah so. Scot: [47:29] It's where I shop. Jason: [47:29] It's God's talking about is the gap between 2019 and 2020 is pretty consistent but then opens up the most ever has, um the very end of the holiday and my hypothesis for that is again this is e-commerce it's Omicron again so I. There was pent-up demand to go to stores people were going the store store traffic was going up and then store traffic fell off a cliff the last half of December as people started getting nervous and so I think that you know drove more people to e-commerce again as my least is my hypothesis. [48:03] And so so that I think is a super interesting data set I definitely am grateful to have access to the similarweb stuff and wow I was diving into their data Isles one of the cool things there's we can see traffic on individual website so I said, well let's see who the winners and losers are in terms of traffic and the story here is. The the traffic is disproportionately going to the the big high-performing sites so you know not surprisingly, Amazon gets the most traffic but they also got the biggest chunk of traffic growth so sometimes you'd say hey the biggest most established players should be the hardest to grow. Amazon Druids traffic faster than any other top 10 retailer which is pretty impressive, and then the next biggest grower was Walmart so this is kind of the story of the rich getting richer and you know traffic and sales consolidating on the, those those very big a sites which is kind of the story you see on slide 29 if you're following along on the deck. Scot: [49:12] The thing that fascinates me about this data is you have like Etsy with the fourth most traffic but then they're like one of the smaller e-commerce sites right so does that, yeah it does that mean no well that's apples and oranges I guess that's all of retail in the previous comparison. Jason: [49:30] No that was at Seas. These e-commerce sales are about little less than 8 billion in the u.s. versus like Walmart at 60 billion but then Ed C does have like like nearly as much traffic as Walmart right like. I want to say they did 600 million, visits over the holiday period versus Walmart did like 1.1 billion so, so you know despite Walmart being 10 times as large they only had twice as much traffic and I think part of the reason for that is the the. Kind of thin long tail nature of Ed c means that their overall conversion rate and the amount of you know pay visits you have to do to find what you want is. Is higher than then it is on Walmart where you're more likely to go to Walmart with with high purchase intent for a particular item and these days it's pretty easy to find that item and get out. Um and that kind of is born out Ebay is still the second large just traffic site even though they're they're shrinking and again eBay's almost half the size of Walmart but eBay is traffic is still higher than Walmart's. Scot: [50:52] Yeah it's a huge it's kind of sad in one way but it's a huge opportunity Bay could get their act together and convert that traffic the way Walmart is they. Jason: [51:00] Yeah if I could redo our. Our predictions episode so you know I talked about in a number of times on this that one of the big trends is retail media networks and you know people selling ads what this data set uncovers more than anything else is the untapped opportunities Ed C needs to get a retail media Network up as soon as possible because I, as far as I know they don't have one. So they should be monetizing that traffic because that that that that's a valuable asset they're not they're not leaning into yet for all our Etsy listeners so then I will just say in this is you know the Chrome Legend in me, during holiday we talk a lot about these estimates from companies right so Adobe you know you know we have on the show and they give us their real time estimates based on on all the customers they see we have sales force on the show every year and they give us real time estimates and then you know when we talk about that I don't think we've had on the show is Mastercard has this product called spending pulse which is, kind of an anonymous aggregated view of all the people that buy stuff with MasterCard and. [52:08] Just just for interest Adobe MasterCard in Salesforce all agree, um that the e-commerce grew about 10% in in Holiday 9 or 10% and holiday of 2021 and that passes the smell test again we don't have the e-commerce data for for December yet so I don't really know but that. That feels like the right order magnitude so I think you know these guys all credibly predicted, the shape of holiday e-commerce but the only one of these guys that predicts brick and mortar is Mastercard right Adobe and Salesforce are pure online retailers and every year I always get weird data from MasterCard and I say this because the whole. The whole world and especially the media like publish this MasterCard data far and wide and and treat it as fax MasterCard like on December 26th said that, retail sales were going to be up 8.5% and that meant they were going to be up 10.7% versus 2019. And so we now know from the US Department of Commerce data that that they were off by 50%. So just call out to my friends at MasterCard that I'd be curious to understand what's going on there from my. Scot: [53:31] Your category thing. Jason: [53:32] Yeah from my seat Well they argue it's not but from my seat there consistently off on the brick-and-mortar number so I'm I'm curious and so then. [53:42] Every time I have this conversation with a colleague or a client the especially someone that maybe doesn't live and breathe e-commerce every day is soon as you start talking about this monster growth number, what everyone asks is yeah Jason but how much of that is inflation right because the thing we hear about in the media the most. Is is inflation inflation inflation and so you know it stands to reason if. [54:09] You know if something grew by 10% and people are paying more you know ten percent more for everything then that explains it and this you know this is an inflation story not a growth in consumer demand story and so I like to put in. Just a little kind of inflation picture at the end. The so I give I give folks a graph of the government, inflation numbers for for for these three years and and what you can see is that like for most of the pandemic inflation. Kind of stayed in the normal range and then we started this, this huge climb not until January of 2021 so if you remember like all a lot of this growth were talking about was 2020 growth, inflation doesn't explain that growth at all there is significant inflation in all of 2021 and it's historically High it's you know depending on how you want to count it could be a 40-year high and so it finished in December. [55:14] At seven percent and so if you figure normal inflation, is a about 11 and a half percent inflation was already high before the pandemic at 2.3 percent. You know if you say alright it should have been at 2.3 percent and it's at seven percent then you could. Say that the kind of back half of 2021 sales that you know. That three or four percent of it can be explained by inflation but definitely not this 22% were talking about. [55:48] And I don't know if you been thinking about her talking about the inflation a lot it's kind of. It's it's kind of funny because I always like to remind people the long-term picture we're all paying way less for goods than we ever did before so I kind of pull this. This 20-year inflation number to remind people that like we're paying fifty percent for a pair of what we paid 20 years ago we're paying, 30% last for personal products and beauty products were paying 17 percent last four cars we're paying 12% less for food all the tangible stuff we buy is getting cheaper because we're getting better at making, and where the American family's budget is going is to Services right so you know the American families having to pay way less for hard goods and food and way more for housing education and Healthcare and that's the big macro picture, but then we've had like the we talked about a lot of the growth in retail coming from all this economic stimulus, the the downside of that economic stimulus is. [56:47] It actually is one of the contributing factors to inflation right like the people have more money to spend, um they buy more the supply chain wasn't prepared for that buy more and so we have, supply chain disruption and so now you have Supply going down and demand going up and what do people do in a rational Market when they they have high demand and low Supply they they charge more, um and so then you know people say hey everything I buy is more expensive I need to get paid more and we have this unprecedented leverage that workers have right now because the labor shortage so they're all negotiating better prices and guess what that means they can afford. Pay more again and and manufacturers are you know having more costs of labor for making stuff so they're charging more and what's been super interesting and all this is, you know it's kind of an excuse for manufacturers to charge you more like most of these manufacturers that are raising their prices are also setting record profits so it's not like. True that like. All of this information is manufacturers passing costs on to Consumers it's a little bit of the the you know opportunity of the moment of you. Scot: [58:01] Yep it's complicated to the inflation a lot of its gas and then to your point a lot of it's stuff that doesn't have this inherent deflationary element to it like healthcare and we're paying more and more for healthcare education anything that has a service component is shooting way up. But even even in the short term though like yeah everything at the grocery store is insane right now it's crazy. Jason: [58:27] Yeah and food and gas are historically more volatile so inflation goes up and down more like side note you have to take all these numbers with a grain of salt because the way they measure it is, they measure the cost of a basket of goods that an average American bought but they built the basket of goods in like 1945. And so it's not the right past it's for today there's no iPhone in that basket. Scot: [58:50] Yeah. Jason: [58:52] So yeah so it's interesting fun it's fun for me because I'll actually be on Good Morning America this weekend talking about inflation. Yeah always fun but yeah I. I'm with you if you take what's called core inflation where you pull gas and food out inflation's like 4.5% so for most of these retail categories, it's part of the story but it definitely would be a mistake to Discount all this growth and say oh it's just. And that's my scoop that's your 36 slide deck that you're all welcome to grab and use my thanks to all the the data providers that contributed to all of it so I have a, a bibliography at the end so if you're interested in starting to track any of this data on your own I tried to make that easy for you. Scot: [59:41] Yeah when we do when we post the show will also try to get on our socials because I've had some people say they can't find the show notes and so we'll make sure that we disseminate this wide and so everyone has it. Jason: [59:55] Well Scott not surprisingly we were able to perfectly fill up an hour with this one topic. So hopefully you found value in this is Scott mentioned the top of the show if you did we sure would appreciate that five-star review, but thanks everyone for kind of following Along on this like pretty dry difficult data dump episode I hope I hope it was useful please, give us feedback if you liked it or if it was not the right format. Scot: [1:00:23] People of data in retailgeek delivers and until next time. Jason: [1:00:28] Happy commercing!
It's the 86th episode of the Truth About Vintage Amps featuring special guest, Joe Halliday of Hello Sailor Effects (@hellosailoreffectsofficial)! This week's episode is sponsored by Jupiter Condenser Co., Amplified Parts and Grez Guitars. Support us on Patreon.com for added content and the occasional surprise. Some of the topics discussed this week: 4:37 The business of cheese, the Prudence Penny Regional Cookbook, mead 10:34 Custom can capacitors from Hayseedhamfest.com 12:00 Skip re-builds a hacked 1961 Fender reverb unit; half-wave rectifier circuit vs. bridge rectifier circuit 16:38 Special guest: Joe Halliday from Hello Sailor Effects (Instagram link) Building amps and pedals while at sea with the British Navy, a love for old parts, octal pre-amp tubes, dummy loads (mini Wall of Sound), Free, Gibson Melody Makers, PA heads, Watkins Scout, etc. 40:48 Replacing a 6EU7 on a Gibson Falcon, DangerUXB 46:49 A Gibson GA-80T Vari-Tone with the push button tone selectors 50:46 Beginner's Corner: Guitar-amp feedback 52:01 A Silverface Vibro Champ with a bypassed can capacitor, Ooni pizza ovens 59:55 Restoring a 1958 Fender Bassman estate find 1:10:46 Garland Jeffreys' "Wild in the Streets" (YouTube link), a Vespa car (shell) 1:13:56 The caps in a vintage guitar 1:19:17 Vibro Champ hum since a speaker upgrade, and a 80uF 450V cap from pin 8 of the 5Y3 to ground 1:24:40 The Benson 300H, Howard Roberts, and the Fender GA-50 1:27:04 Are all AB763 Fender amps made equal? 1:30:15 Starting a '70s Carlsboro 50 Top Head that has been dormant for decades 1:35:47 Vox AC-4 vs AC-15; DIY Fender Bassman kits 1:43:54 $325 into a 1965-1966 GA-15RVT Explorer 1:49:16 Skip says "thanks" to Joe, a vintage porcelain grilled cheese sandwich maker The Truth About Vintage Amps is hosted by amp tech Skip Simmons. Co-hosted and produced by the Fretboard Journal's Jason Verlinde. Email or send us a voice memo to: email@example.com or leave us a voicemail or text at 509-557-0848. And don't forget to share the show with friends.
An interview with Steve Sells, Technical Director, Electronics at Naim Audio. As part 3 of our exploration into British HiFi (What is British Hifi?, History Of The LS3/5a) we sit down with Steve from Naim Audio to discuss the legendary British audio brand that has helped shape the high fidelity landscape over the years. A longstanding Brit-Fi icon, Naim is known for its classic amplifiers and cutting edge streaming devices (along with other audio components and even a record label). S6E9 Sponsors: MUSICALSURROUNDINGSdotCOM - World-Class Analog Equipment SVSOUNDdotCOM– Join the Sound R|Evolution. SCHIITdotCOM - Audio Components Designed & Built in California & Texas, Starting At $49 WHARFEDALEUSAdotCOM - Legendary British Sound – Elevated
Happy New Year! Getting up to speed in 2022, we have a LOT of tech to talk about! The Pre-CES show! Let’s chat out the potential trends we’ll see from Las Vegas. Also, Blackberry is pulling the plug on server support for older phones. Qualcomm’s newest SOC is running hot in early benchmarks. Twitter takes … Continue reading "#SGGQA 235: Happy New Year! Pre-CES News, Twitter Political Bans, Samsung TV NFTs, Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 Over Heating"
In our latest Electronic Specifier Insights podcast, we spoke to Dr Sarah Peers, Associate Professor and Head of Academic Skills, NMITE; Project Manager, INWES all about engineering within education and the work she does at NMITE
In our latest Electronic Specifier Insights podcast, we spoke to Dr Sarah Peers, Associate Professor and Head of Academic Skills, NMITE; Project Manager, INWES all about engineering within education and the work she does at NMITE
Techstination, your destination for gadgets and gear. I'm Fred Fishkin. A smarter way to wake up in the new year. Palo Alto Innovation is out with the Sandman Doppler..a smart alarm clock with lots of added features. There are six full power USB charging ports…with an option for USB C on...
Episode 63 An Electronic Poetry Slam Playlist Roland Giguere, “Les Heures Lentes” from Voix De 8 Poètes Du Canada (1958 Folkways). Spoken poetry intermixed with musique concrete by Francois Morel. The electronic music and poetry are never heard simultaneously on this album, but the music was composed to set the tone for each work that followed. 1:29. François Dufrêne & Jean Baronnet, “U 47” from A Panorama Of Experimental Music, Vol. 1: Electronic Music / Musique Concrete (1967 Mercury). Dufrêne was a French sound poet and visual artist who performed what he called "crirythmes," a style of vocal noises. The electronic music on tape was composed by Baronnet, who was a co-founder, with Pierre Henry, of Studio Apsome, their private studio for electronic music, after their break from the GRM studios of Pierre Schaeffer in 1958. Recorded under the supervision of Pierre Henry, in collaboration with the sound laboratories of the West German Radio (Cologne), Italian Radio (Milan), French Radio and Television (Paris), and the Studio Apsome (Paris). 3:33 Intersystems, “A Cave in the Country” from Peachy (1967 Pentagon). This was the Canadian experimental music band that produced some radically original music and performed live events mostly in the Toronto area from 1967 to 1969. Poetry and vocals by Blake Parker. Electronic music using the Moog Modular synthesizer by John Mills-Cockell. Performers, Blake Parker, Dik Zander, John Mills-Cockell, Michael Hayden. 1:50 Intersystems, “Carelessly Draped in Black” from Peachy (1967 Pentagon). This was the Canadian experimental music band that produced some radically original music and performed live events mostly in the Toronto area from 1967 to 1969. Poetry and vocals by Blake Parker. Electronic music using the Moog Modular synthesizer by John Mills-Cockell. Performers, Blake Parker, Dik Zander, John Mills-Cockell, Michael Hayden. 4:32 Bruce Clarke, “Of Spiralling Why” from The First See + Hear (1968 See/Hear Productions). From See/Hear, a quarterly publication of recordings of contemporary sound arts. There were three issues total. All from Canada. When there was electronic music, it was provided and created by Wayne Carr using a Buchla Box. Carr was associated with all three of the See/Hear albums/issues. This piece was commissioned for the Adelaide 1968 Arts Festival by the Melbourne ISCM, fragments of poetry were chosen at random from the unpublished works of the late Ann Pickburn, whom I believe you hear performing her words on this track. 9:35 Jim Brown and Wayne Carr, “Blues for Electric” from Oh See Can You Say (1968 See/Hear). Poetry and synthesizer. Poetry and voice, Jim Brown; engineer, Buchla Box, Wayne Carr. The second LP of this quarterly LP/magazine that seemed to only have three issues. “Wayne Carr plays synthesizer whenever it happens.” This is noted on another LP as a Buchla Box, so I've assumed that's what he used on all three albums. 3:09 bill bissett & Th Mandan Massacre (sp), “fires in th tempul” from Awake In Th Red Desert (1968 See/Hear Productions). Poetry and voice, Bill Bissett; Toy Flute, Roger Tentrey; Flute, Tape Recorder, Ross Barrett; Guitar, Terry Beauchamp; Percussion, Gregg Simpson, Harley McConnell, Ken Paterson, Martina Clinton; Producer, Jim Brown; Buchla Box, engineer, Wayne Carr. 3:32 bill bissett & Th Mandan Massacre (sp), “now according to paragraph c” from Awake In Th Red Desert (1968 See/Hear Productions). Poetry and voice, Bill Bissett; Toy Flute, Roger Tentrey; Flute, Tape Recorder, Ross Barrett; Guitar, Terry Beauchamp; Percussion, Gregg Simpson, Harley McConnell, Ken Paterson, Martina Clinton; Producer, Jim Brown; Buchla Box, engineer, Wayne Carr. 2:40 Ruth White, “The Irremediable” from Flowers Of Evil (1969 Limelight). Electronic music, translations, and vocalizations by Ruth White. Words by Charles Baudelaire. Legendary American electronic music pioneer, most noted for her early explorations of sound using the Moog synthesizer. "An electronic setting of the poems of Charles Baudelaire composed and realized by Ruth White." 4:55 Ruth White, “The Cat” from Flowers Of Evil (1969 Limelight). Electronic music, translations, and vocalizations by Ruth White. Words by Charles Baudelaire. Legendary American electronic music pioneer, most noted for her early explorations of sound using the Moog synthesizer. "An electronic setting of the poems of Charles Baudelaire composed and realized by Ruth White." 3:27 Charles Dodge, “Speech Songs: No. 1 When I Am With You (Excerpt)” and “Speech Songs: No. 2 He Destroyed Her Image (Excerpt)” from from 10+2: 12 American Text Sound Pieces (1975 1750 Arch Records). Realized at the Bell Telephone Laboratories for computer music in 1975. 3:45 William Hellermann, “Passages 13 – The Fire (For Trumpet & Tape)” from Peter Maxwell Davies / Lucia Dlugoszewski / William Hellerman, Gerard Schwarz, Ursula Oppens, The New Trumpet (1975 Nonesuch). Composed by William Hellermann; voices, Jacqueline Hellerman, John P. Thomas, Marsha Immanuel, and Michael O'Brien; words by Robert Duncan. This poem was first published in 'Poetry,' April-May 1965. Tape realized by Hellerman at the Columbia-Princeton Electronic Music Center. 25:28 Robert Ashley, “In Sara, Mencken, Christ And Beethoven There Were Men And Women (Excerpt)” from 10+2: 12 American Text Sound Pieces (1975 1750 Arch Records). Lyrics By – John Barton Wolgamot; Moog Synthesizer,Paul DeMarinis; Voice, Robert Ashley. Excerpt from an album-length work released in 1974 on Cramps Records. 3:53 Robert Ashley, “Interiors with Flash” from Big Ego (1978 Giorno Poetry Systems). A study for what would become Automatic Writing, a longer work by Ashley. recorded at Mills College, Oakland, California, May 14, 1978. Voice, Mimi Johnson; Electronics, Polymoog, Voice, written, produced, and mixed by Robert Ashley. 3:05 Joan La Barbara, “Cathing” from Tapesongs (1977 Chiaroscuro Records). Composed, produced, edited and sung by Joan La Barbara. The story behind this piece is a great one. In the 1970s, La Barbara, along with Meredith Monk, emerged in America as two of the premiere practitioners of avant garde vocalizing. Some might recognize the name of this piece as possibly a tribute to Cathy Berberian, the earlier generation's version of an avant garde diva (La Barbara and Monk would never consider themselves as divas in the sense that Berberian was). Rather than being a tribute to Berberian, La Barbara was responding to a radio interview (apparently broadcast during the intermission of her concert at the 1977 Holland Festival). Berberian was outspoken about the new generation of vocalists and wondered out loud how any respectable composer could write for “one of those singers.” La Barbara's response, composed in response, took excerpts from the interview (20 phrases), edited and rearranged them, altered them electronically to compose this piece. In her liner notes, she only identifies Berberian as another “professional singer.” Take that! 8:01. Laurie Anderson, “Closed Circuits” from You're The Guy I Want To Share My Money With (1981 Girono Poetry Systems). One of Anderson's tracks from this 2-LP collection of text and poetry that also includes works by John Giorno and William Burroughs. I think this was the tenth album from Giorno that began in 1975 with the Dial-A-Poem Poets. Electronics (Microphone Stand Turned Through Harmonizer), Wood Block, voice, Laurie Anderson. 7:23. Background music for opening Laurie Anderson, “Dr. Miller” from You're The Guy I Want To Share My Money With (1981 Girono Poetry Systems). Another of Anderson's tracks from this 2-LP collection of text and poetry that also includes works by John Giorno and William Burroughs. This is another version of a track that later appeared on Anderson's Unted States Live LP in 1984. Saxophone, Perry Hoberman; Synthesizer, Percussion, voice, Laurie Anderson. 4:19 Opening and closing sequences voiced by Anne Benkovitz. Additional opening, closing, and other incidental music by Thom Holmes. For additional notes, please see my blog, Noise and Notations.
Hudson and Nikki reminisce back to things they thought were fancy as a child that they realize are not nearly as fancy as an adult. They also discuss some of their favorite candy bars and then they react to some of the listeners odd favorites. Chicken dippers, the most used emojis, Snickers Food Fights, and more on this episode of the Worst of the RIOT.
Mitch, Matt, Josh and Thick Rick sit down and talk about Josh's new toy. They also discuss their opinions on which electronics work the best for which applications. They go through a few different brands and kinds of flashers and price points for anyone on the fence about which unit to buy.
In our final episode of 2021, Chris, Mads and returning host Chris O'Regan talk Intellivision and whittle down a long list of games into an exciting and varied shortlist. Click here to listen to the Cane and Rinse Streams Episode 110 - Intellivision Special that is mentioned in the episode. Thanks to all of our Patreon's who made this episode possible. SiEC Adam Hinde Chris O'Regan James Dunn Hans Crombeen Roushimsx Guto Threadbare Chris Atwill Paul Bullard Harvey Watson Martyn Jones Ninjixel Tim TJ Walker Andy Hudson Ricardo Engel Adrian Nelson HeavyMetalDon James Bentley Tony Parkinson Gaz H Mal Woods Red-Crested Breegull Richard Rogers Cane and Rinse LamptonWorm Salvio Calabrese Mitsoyama Rhys Wynne Clint Humphrey Mark Bylund Paul Ashton Chris Rowe Jon Sheppard Laurent Giroud Deadl0ck Aaron Maupin Jim-OrbitsIT Jon Veal Thomas scoffham Andy Marsh Patrick Fürst Laurens Andrew Gilmour Stephen Stuttard Matt Sullivan Magnus Esbjörner Darren Coles Garry Heather Edward Fitzpatrick Nick Lees Blake Brett Help support the Retro Asylum by becoming a patron: https://www.patreon.com/retroasylum Retro Asylum on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/retroasylum/ Retro Asylum YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCfCC9rIvCKoW3mdbuCsB7Ag Retro Asylum on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/the_retro_asylum/ Retro Asylum on Twitch:https://www.twitch.tv/theretroasylum Twitter: @theretroasylum Retro Asylum Merchandise: https://retroasylumstore.myspreadshop.co.uk/
The Knobs welcome back to the show Alec Breslow of MAE aka Mask Audio Electronics. Alec has been a very busy dude and has really diversified his talents including a pretty epic limited release with Pine Box Customs. Listen to what he's been up to and enjoy the show! Hosted by Todd Novak with Tony Dudzik Guitar, electric guitar, guitar pedal, pedal effects, pedal fx, guitar amplifier, humbucker, single coil, P90, guitar pickups, guitar setup, fuzz, overdrive, delay, reverb, distortion, guitar player, guitarist, guitar tips, guitar repair, vintage guitar, guitar amp speakers, guitar cabinet, combo amp, guitar amp Visit us at theguitarknobs.com Support our show on Patreon.com/theguitarknobs
Happy Holidays! I don’t have a fancy show planned, so we’re just going to hang out and chat about the year. Oh. And maybe there’s a giveaway happening this week… Let’s get our tech week started right! Download this week’s podcast – SGGQA 234 (RSS subscription links below) Get the ad-free version of this episode! … Continue reading "#SGGQA 234: The HAPPY HOLIDAYS Pajama Podcast!"
Techstination, your destination for gadgets and gear. I'm Fred Fishkin. I have a new robotic friend I'd like you to meet… ElliQ..“Hi there. Morning, Fred. I'm here to help you stay healthy and happy”ElliQ is the creation of Intuition Robotics which is focused on providing older adults…living...
Episode Summary: Join Harry Duran, host of Vertical Farming Podcast, as he welcomes to the show Simon Deacon, founder and CEO of Light Science Technologies, an organization that provides integrated solutions for the Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA) market. A dynamic and forward-looking entrepreneur, Simon has founded and grown businesses in Lighting, Electronics and Display manufacture markets. Today, Harry and Simon discuss the intricate and exciting work Simon is doing to disrupt the vertical farming industry. Simon talks in depth about his lighting products, the research his company does and the future of his company, including sensor technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Simon speaks to how Light Science Technologies differentiates themselves from their competitors, the impact supply chain issues have had on his business and how they are approaching customer relations through a lens of partnership. Episodes Sponsor: Freight Farms – https://www.freightfarms.com/ Global Vertical Farming Show – https://verticalfarmingshow.com/ Cultivatd – https://www.cultivatd.com/ What We Covered: 03:41 – Harry welcomes to the show Simon Deacon, who joins the show to discuss his roots growing up in Derby, his entrepreneurial spirit and what inspired him to launch Light Science Technologies 09:55 – Milestone moments in lighting technology 12:54 – Simon recalls some of the projects he worked on during his time at UK Circuits and Electronics Solutions 18:07 – Defining what it means to truly be ‘organic' 20:33 – The inspiration to launch Light Science and growing more for less 27:03 – Why sustainability is so vital now more than ever 30:49 – How Light Science is differentiating themselves from their competitors 34:30 – Supply chain issues 37:31 – What's next for Light Science 40:32 – A tough question Simon had to ask himself recently 45:50 – Harry thanks Simon for joining the show and let's listeners know where they can learn more about Light Science Technologies and connect with Simon Tweetable Quotes: “People talk about recipe of light to grow plants, which is obviously extremely important because there's lots of different species of plants around. But generally there's about a thousand that we might consume as humans to eat.” (15:39) (Simon) “I think we're more conscious now of what we're eating, where it comes from and how far it's travelled to get to your plate. I think we abandoned quite some time ago that idea of being happy just to go to the supermarket and buy the produce without knowing where it comes from.” (18:48) (Simon) “One of our lines is, ‘Grow more for less.' And that's what we're trying to do: grow more for less locally using our technology.” (23:14) (Simon) “When we talk to our customers and the general public, the most important thing to them is food security. And then the second thing is sustainability. So, where is it coming from, how far has it travelled, has it been in an aircraft and why has it been in an aircraft to get to us. So, we thought that we would make a range of products to suit 2021.” (29:20) (Simon) “A lot of our competitors were selling the lighting product. Others are just doing lab work. Others are just doing sensory work. We've got all of those, under one roof, where we manufacture our product, we design our own product, but we create that long-term partnership with you. We're there for the next twenty, thirty, forty years of being in that partnership with you. And that's what really makes us stand out from all our competitors is the uniqueness of our products and being reusable and recyclable.” (33:51) (Simon) “The sensor technology comes out in the first half of next year where we started to use that AI data, which really, I think, is the key to our growing success.” (40:02) (Simon) Links Mentioned: Simon's LinkedIn – https://www.linkedin.com/in/simon-deacon-6a7b3440/ Light Science Technologies' Website – https://lightsciencetech.com/ Sponsor Info: Cultivatd Website – https://www.cultivatd.com/ Cultivatd Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/cult_ivatd/ Cultivatd's Twitter – https://twitter.com/cultivatd Cultivatd's Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/cultivatd/
Hudson and Isaia get you prepared on Christmas Eve for every terrible question your family members are going to ask you on Christmas. They also talk about why trying to figure out what someone got you for Christmas may result you in no gift at all. An arsonists firefighter, strangling a kangaroo, the worst life coach, and more on this episode of the Worst of The RIOT.
To recognize this magical time of year, we shared some grateful messages from our associates. Juan from Store 3626 in Winston Salem, North Carolina, was grateful for CAP 2 and everyone at the store, and Brianna from Store 300 in Jacksonville, Alabama, was grateful for her husband, Michael, who works in Electronics. We also heard an appreciative message from C.T. at Store 1763 in Bluefield, Virginia, who gave a shoutout to his OGP team. We are also thankful for our long-standing associates celebrating big milestones. Congratulations to Michael at Store 579 in St. Augustine, Florida, Ruben from Store 2695 in Clermont, Florida, and Lisa at Store 4130 in Kyle, Texas, each of whom celebrated 30 amazing years with the company! Josh also shared the best holiday vacation spots in the U.S., so tune in now to celebrate with The Bo Show.
Techstination, your destination for gadgets and gear. I'm Fred Fishkin. For those still searching for unique techie gifts or stocking stuffers….Anker's line of Magsafe chargers and battery packs can be great accessories for iPhone users. The company's Soundcore brand has created Frames….Bluetooth...
In this podcast, Tayson, Tyler, and Brigham of Outdoor Vitals discuss two electronic items that they always bring with them on their backpacking adventures. Both of these items (the Garmin inReach Mini and the Garmin Instinct Solar) will be available to Live Ultralight Members: https://bit.ly/3cdoUHZ Great Outdoor Vitals Gear: Backpacks: KOTAUL TRAVEL AND ADVENTURE BACKPACK: https://bit.ly/3Cm12MZ SHADOWLIGHT ULTRALIGHT BACKPACK: https://bit.ly/3DmkURh Shelters: DOMINION 1P ULTRALIGHT BACKPACKING TENT: https://bit.ly/3DkdyOp ULTRALIGHT DOMINION 2P BACKPACKING TENT: https://bit.ly/3Dk0h8D DELANO ULTRALIGHT BACKPACKING TARP: https://bit.ly/3cvukhT Sleeping Bags: STORMLOFT™ DOWN MUMMYPOD™ SLEEPING BAG: https://bit.ly/30poiMX SUMMIT DOWN SLEEPING BAGS: https://bit.ly/3ChkNFh ATLAS LOFTTEK™ HYBRID SLEEPING BAGS: https://bit.ly/3Dj2y3S LOFTTEK HYBRID MUMMYPOD™ HAMMOCK INSULATION: https://bit.ly/3Cjgnhe OUTDOOR VITALS SLEEPING BAG LINER: https://bit.ly/2YNo7KI TopQuilts: STORMLOFT™ DOWN TOPQUILT: https://bit.ly/3DnDmcg LOFTTEK™ HYBRID 0 - 15 °F TOPQUILTS: https://bit.ly/3njA0l7 Underquilts: LOFTTEK™ HYBRID 0 & 15°F UNDERQUILTS: https://bit.ly/3wQsBwA AERIE 0° TO 45°F UNDERQUILT: https://bit.ly/3Co6M8N STORMLOFT™ 0°-30°F DOWN UNDERQUILT: https://bit.ly/3ng9Kbo Sleeping Pads: ULTRALIGHT SLEEPING PADS: https://bit.ly/3nh7IHS Hammocks: ULTRALIGHT COMPLETE HAMMOCK SYSTEM: https://bit.ly/30vP6v2 HAMMOCK SUSPENSION SYSTEM: https://bit.ly/3wLGdte HAMMOCK BUGNET: https://bit.ly/30p3wgq Pillows/Balaclavas/Booties: ULTRALIGHT STRETCH PILLOW: https://bit.ly/3nkrbaS LOFTTEK™ HYBRID BALACLAVA / HOOD: https://bit.ly/3cfbsna LOFTTEK™ HYBRID BOOTIES: https://bit.ly/30ppD6r Jackets and Hoodies: NOVAPRO MEN'S JACKET: https://bit.ly/3DjRtj3 NOVAPRO WOMEN'S JACKET: https://bit.ly/3niA9p1 NOVAUL MEN'S JACKET: https://bit.ly/3wQe9Vv NOVAUL WOMEN'S JACKET: https://bit.ly/3DmFuB0 VENTUS ACTIVE HOODIE: https://bit.ly/3wNbqMG ULTRALIGHT LOFTTEK™ ADVENTURE JACKET: https://bit.ly/3wOGhs1 ULTRALIGHT REGULATOR DOWN JACKET: https://bit.ly/3wOGjjD Pants/Shorts: SATU ADVENTURE PANTS (MEN SIZING): https://bit.ly/3CvNhLX SATU ADVENTURE PANTS (MEN SIZING WAIST SIZES 40, 43, AND 46): https://bit.ly/3nfjUce SATU ADVENTURE PANTS (WOMEN SIZING): https://bit.ly/3wQewiR SATU ADVENTURE SHORTS: https://bit.ly/3Dw58mU Dragonwool: DRAGONWOOL HOODIE: https://bit.ly/3DjNRgJ OUTDOOR VITALS MERINO WOOL NECK GAITERS: https://bit.ly/3wMByHi DRAGONWOOL ZIPOFF THERMAL: https://bit.ly/3cd5zGS DRAGONWOOL BOXER: https://bit.ly/3Dll5MU Merch: T-SHIRTS: https://bit.ly/3CnR0uK HATS: https://bit.ly/3wPgSyy Membership: OTHER PROVEN ESSENTIALS: https://bit.ly/3cdoUHZ
Daniela Osio, Founder & CEO of Kloopify joins Maria Villablanca to discuss how and why she joined the supply chain industry & why she founded Kloopify, a SaaS solution that makes it easy for companies to integrate sustainable sourcing. As a young Latinx supply chain professional, Daniela provides her perspective on how business leaders can foster a culture that celebrates the inclusion of those who come from traditionally underrepresented backgrounds in supply chain. About the Speaker Daniela Osio is passionate about solving meaningful problems. She is the Founder and CEO of Kloopify, a SaaS solution that enables and measures sustainable supply chain management. From supplier selection to collaboration, Kloopify makes it easy for companies to integrate sustainable sourcing. Formerly at DuPont, Daniela was the Global Risk Management Leader who created, developed, and implemented a Risk Management organization for the $4.0 billion Electronics and Imaging (E&I) Business Unit. She led the warehousing, barge, tank & transloading categories through the DOW and DuPont merger, and in 2019 was named a 30 under 30 Supply Chain Star by the Institute of Supply Chain Management. Due to all her work in the supply chain industry, she was awarded the 2021 Young Transform Award by the Future Insight Network.
EP283 - Year End Review It's our final show of 2021! We recap the US Dept of Commerce November Advanced Retail Sales Data. We do a deep dive into the retail industries growth from 2019 through November 2021. In those 23 months, the retail industry grew 22%, historically fast growth. There were clear winners and losers. If you want to follow along on with all the data, here is a visual recap of retail growth 2020-2021. (PDF Download). We also highlight the six most important trends of 2021. Amazon fulfillment capacity growth (Amazon and Walmart become shipping companies) Social Media becomes the discovery channel for e-commerce (led by live-streaming) Ultrafast delivery services Amazon invents and starts to scale a grocery store (Amazon Fresh) with just walk out technology Retail Media Networks explode, led by Amazon's $30B in ad sales. Retailers now compete with social media networks for eyeballs Apparel has shifted from designer led to consumer led, as evidenced by the meteoric rise of Shein We're so very grateful to our audience, both for the time you have shared with us, and for generous opinions, feedback, and knowledge that many of you have shared. We wish you all the very best holidays and New Years, and look forward to seeing you in 2022! Episode 283 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 283 being recorded on Tuesday sept December twenty first twenty Twenty-One I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:39] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott show listeners Jason how are the holidays treating you so far. Jason: [0:46] They are treating me really well it's been super interesting what's going on in our industry and getting ready to take the family to California to see my mom and brother. Scot: [0:59] Very fun California versus Chicago seems like a smart smart choice this time. Jason: [1:04] Yes early and my relationship with my wife we agreed that we would visit her Michigan in-laws and Thanksgiving and my California relatives in December seems weather prudent if nothing else. Scot: [1:16] Yeah smart I like your like you're negotiating strategies so we are recording this here live on December 21st so we are in the very last tail end of holiday 21 and Jason you had some some interesting data that you had parse through that I thought we could start with it's going to be largely kind of the November data but it's kind of the best data we have, until we get into January and see how the holiday played out and then we'll do a quick checkpoint on what you're hearing from clients and then I think both of us wanted to kind of share our big stories for retail and e-commerce for 2021 so why don't you kick us off with some data. Jason: [1:57] That sounds amazing so yeah so the data we are talking about is the US Department of Commerce data we get a an update every month so you know last week we got the, the update that includes November and in general November sales were up sixteen percent from November of twenty twenty so I always coach people that we should look at year-over-year not month over month so pretty healthy growth in 2021 from 2020 if you look at year-to-date so January through November we are up about 18% from 2020 and if you look at e-commerce we were up about 12 percent from November of 2020 so I you know I always put this data out on social media and I got a ton of, interesting responses this year on that data everyone's like hey Jason why are you comparing to November of 2020 like we're in the middle of the pandemic everything was all topsy-turvy like it's like comparing, pandemic 2021 numbers to pain demick 2020 numbers isn't very helpful to me because everything is so confusing. [3:13] And so I kind of took that to heart like you know it is the best kind of comparison we have about how we're doing but I said oh you know the more interesting comparison is maybe we take. One step back and we compare the. The the last two years of data to two years ago so we kind of compare how much growth we've had during the pandemic with what girls look like before the pandemic and I hadn't hadn't really done that in a while and what I found was interesting and in a few cases it surprise me. Scot: [3:46] I feel like we should create a new word for this I'll work on it in the vein of a ship again yeah that's just boring I don't know. Jason: [3:54] Yeah yeah de or. Yeah every CEO in America has learned to say you're over two years ago by the way and for it's super funny for non-gaap metrics in the and in the 10-qs they. Like it's they kept they completely cherry-pick like if the number is good they take versus last year and if it's bad they take versus two years ago. Scot: [4:18] Yeah yeah that's the nice thing you need everything every number needs to be up into the right. Jason: [4:23] My takeaway there is you CEOs are oily. Scot: [4:25] We know we're strategic. Jason: [4:29] Got it potato potahto. Scot: [4:31] Cool what did this year over your year over year over last year review. Jason: [4:37] Yeah so if we say hey from how much has retailgeek grown in 2020 and 2021 as a two-year stack it has grown 22 percent, so you know people talk about like all the struggles and challenges we had during the pandemic but if I see if I got in a time machine and no pandemic just told every retail CEO how would you feel about growing 22% over the next two years, the vast majority of CEOs would have jumped at that and then if you said and our life is going to be totally disrupted by this pandemic. [5:14] I think every retail CEO in America would have said I'd be thrilled to get through the next two years with 22 percent growth so that was interesting and then I said I wonder how that compares historically so I got in the hot tub time machine and I pulled all the data from 1990 through today and I restated every year as its growth versus the previous two years to kind of come up with this standard metric to compare against the 22 percent and 22% is unprecedentedly high it's by far the biggest two-year growth we've had since 1990 there's only a few years that that just tickled 15% so I can 2000 we hit 15 percent and in 1994 we hit 15% but like, most of the. The this last decade we were kind of tickling in the kind of six to eight percent growth so 22 percent growth. On average for the whole retail industry is a huge win and unprecedentedly more growth than we would traditionally get does that surprise you at all. Scot: [6:26] It doesn't sort of make sure I understand it's all retail so it's offline and online in Aggregate and then you can't just divide it by 2 right because there's compounding in there so it's not really two years of 11 it's probably like I don't know 12 in an 8 or something. Jason: [6:41] Yes so you are correct now and. That 20 yes and all of this data it does include compounding the the compounding is an interesting point which will come up in a another piece of data in in just a minute but yeah so this is all like literally looking at the. Aggregate sales for 2019 and the aggregate sales for 2021 and saying how much bigger was 2021 than 2019. Scot: [7:08] Yeah did you run a kegger so in MBA school they would say well you can actually unpack the compounding by look at the compounded annual growth rate. Jason: [7:17] Yes yes I am familiar with the math I did not. Scot: [7:21] Okay it was two years it's not going to be that substantial yeah repeat. Jason: [7:24] No that's the yeah it's right typically like with like a five-year Horizon it makes a lot more sense but yeah it would have been interesting but it just I had to your data so I was just trying to come up with an Apples to Apples. Scot: [7:36] Not feels feels like a wind. Jason: [7:38] Yeah so then I said alright well that's interesting on average retail is a huge win. [7:44] Very obviously there are winners and losers so I said alright well let's look at all the categories that the US Department of Commerce gives us. Based on that 2-year stack and there were you know and who was at the industry average who wildly outperformed the industry average and who underperformed the industry average and there are some things that made total sense to me and we're not surprising and then there were some pretty big surprises in there so, the the category that out of the US Department of Commerce data that grew the fastest was, non store sales which is kind of our e-commerce proxy right and it grew 39 percent so almost twice as fast its total retail that's pretty intuitive you know again you're hearing a lot of. E-commerce growth is slowing. Wagon November as more people went back to stores you know compared to this like you know pandemic impacted 20/20 but when you look at onto your stack, e-commerce is still the fastest growing part of retail at group 39% from 2019 and that certainly didn't surprise me the next two categories sporting goods and building materials, also really didn't surprise me because we kind of talked about them being, the big pandemic winners that like you know people then go to the gym so they bought stuff from Dick's Sporting Goods people didn't go on vacation so they built a new patio with materials from Home Depot and so kind of all the that Services Revenue. [9:14] Shifted into retail and that gave sporting goods and building materials a big a big kiss. Motor Vehicles which at one point people were saying like oh my God that's going to be a horrible category in the pandemic Motor Vehicles actually outperformed the industry average so they grew at 24 percent versus 22 percent for total retail. And then here's where we start getting surprises. Slightly below the industry average was furniture and Home Furnishing so that grew at 21 percent versus the industry average of 22 and if you just asked me to bet I would have said in the same way that building materials and Home Improvement stores. Got extra spending from the pandemic I would have expected furniture stores to get extra spending from the pandemic as well and so it surprised me that they were only at the industry average and the only my only hypothesis is. Did they have more disruptions from supply chain like why. Was it just harder for them to scale up to make more sofas to meet the increased demand and so they, they grew healthy but they didn't grow as healthy as they might have because they they couldn't double their us Workforce to build more couches. Scot: [10:23] The feels right the furniture industry has been here in North Carolina that's our primary one and they're just destroyed by the supply chain they can't there was a series of events that couldn't get phone because of the fire and awesome remember that that seems like a year ago but it actually wasn't go to the summer and then with this quote-unquote Supply pain they haven't been able to get the other inputs like anything fabric while that stuff made in China and shipped over here and sitting on a boat somewhere. Jason: [10:50] Yeah and I feel like it's a double whammy for them because it's harder than ever to make stuff but there's actually they could sell more than ever before if they could make it so it's like, it almost feels worse than knowing there's demand that you can't meet. Scot: [11:01] Yeah it's painful. Jason: [11:03] Yeah so then general merchandise grew at 16 percent versus of retail 22 percent and then the one that surprised me most that I talk about a lot is grocery grew at 16 percent versus the industry average of 22 percent and I would have said man a ton of spending shifted from restaurants to grocery stores they were another pandemic winner and so I'll be honest I don't have a perfect hypothesis for why. Again sixteen percent is Healthy Growth and by historical standards it's better than any two-year period since 1990 so I don't want to say oh you know they had a rough time they had a good time but surprising that they were below the industry average to me a little bit. You have any great Insight that I didn't think of on why that would be. Scot: [11:52] I don't maybe it's like a mix thing underneath the hood like the e-commerce grew so much doesn't it like well I'll be in this category are rules so if. Jason: [12:02] Imperfect yes so you are right like one of the wrinkles in all of this is. The way the US Department of Commerce treats e-commerce as another category which is unfortunate right because you know when someone shifts from buying a exercise bike in a Dick Sporting Good to buying a dick exercise bike from Dick's Sporting Goods.com. The sale leaves the sporting good category in enters the non-store category and so that's. That's not really Apples to Apples and then of course this is all done with surveys that are in perfectly filled out by human beings and so how different retailers respond to that survey is also inconsistent so you got it. This data is super helpful directionally but you definitely don't want to get too wrapped around the axle of the minutiae of the data because it's just an imperfect methodology. [12:52] And so then the the categories they did the worst, do make sense with one outlier for a couple hours for me so gasoline only grew at 14%, you know again make sense to me that they you know underperformed when people aren't commuting to work surprising 14% sales are still pretty good growth clothing is near the bottom at 12% growth so again clothing over the last two years did not shrink they still grew at 12% which might have been their average rate of growth I should do that waiters pulled just the category growth over the last 30 years. But compared all these other categories obviously closing was was poor and the Very lowest category is restaurants and bars which still grew six percent so that all makes sense but then there were two two categories in the cellar that I would have expected to do better health and personal care grew at 11% and Electronics and Appliances grew at seven percent so those are both pretty far under the industry average and you know those are two categories. They had some complication they had pros and cons you know within that category but by and large I guess I was surprised to see them so well. Scot: [14:06] Yet Health and Beauty one because Aaron was zooming like the makeup sales shot way up so it's got to be a you know it was e-commerce. Jason: [14:15] Lipstick sales actually went way down because of the Mask but mascara and skincare went way up it's so funny bye. Um so, then I just did one other sanity check so you know people like a couple people a couple of Industry analysts even like responded to my data and said yeah just don't believe the numbers and I'm like just some understanding you you're saying you don't believe the US Department of Commerce numbers not like I didn't make any of these numbers upright bike. [14:45] And and the US Department of Commerce data is imperfect I would argue it's. The best we have access to and it's it's a bunch of you know PhD in statistics that have you know the force of law to you know to enforce compliance with their survey so I it's better than any other survey out there for whatever that's worth but so I thought how can I do a chance sanity check on this data and I'm like oh all the public retailers are required to report their growth every quarter so we could try to create a year over two year growth for all of these public retailers and compare it to the industry data and some of these public retailers are in a particular category so you can you know pretty safely assume all their sales are in that category so you could kind of use that as a sanity check so I pulled I don't know I guess it's about 25 companies and I converted their quarterly growth into a two-year stack and here I will confess I took a shortcut and if there's any mathematicians that want to help me solve this problem I will toy do it these. Draws numbers are not compounded growth so the problem is we don't have annual growth rates from the Retailer's we have quarterly growth rate so basically you have to. Aggregate for quarters of growth and then. [16:11] Calculate it over two years and so I took a lazy shortcut and I just added their. 20 growth to their 2021 growth so we have basically seven quarters of growth for most of these retailers and it's it's what they call a two-year stack which means growth from 2019 plus 2020 and while the math is not right there by the way right because of. Like the compounding problem of your 2020 growth include your you know growth over 2019. This is how most retailers reported in their earnings so when they talk about to your growth for these non-gaap measures where they try to put themselves in the best light and they report their two year growth they're almost never talking about a compounded number like if you read the footnote. They're they're adding the growth from those two years so this is how they're doing the math in most cases for whatever that's worth but so that's way more precursor than we need the retailer that grew the public retailer the grew the most over the last two years total shocker to me I would not have expected in a million years is Burlington Coat Factory. That Drew 85% and to put that in perspective, they sell apparel which did not do very well in the pandemic and they turned off their website their e-commerce site the month before the pandemic. So they didn't sell any a long line. Scot: [17:34] They're not really opening a lot of stores either. Jason: [17:36] No I mean they may have opened a couple stores over the whole two years but like this is mostly comp sales growth so it actually kind of, factors out new store. Scot: [17:46] Okay so it's cops okay. Jason: [17:47] Yeah this is these numbers that ye are based on currency adjusted comp sales just in the u.s. wherever possible so so Burlington's a total outliner congratulations to them surprising to me Amazon is was the second fastest grower and all public retail at 61 percent over two years which. Doesn't surprise me that super impressive but you'd expect to see them near the top of this list then you see Dick's Sporting Goods at 57 percent and again, like from from the industry data Sporting Goods was the second fastest growing category behind e-commerce so Amazon as a proxy for e-commerce and dicks is approximately for sporting goods makes total sense but then things start getting interesting the next fastest grower was Ulta which is personal care at 36 percent so they grew much better than did the. The personal care category now they're less than half the personal care category the slightly bigger version of them would be Sephora but Sephora is actually owned. Buy a house of Brands and so it's harder to get their data. [19:01] Bed Bath & Beyond group 35% which is impressive Target group 34 percent, Home Depot which again was in one of these these outperforming categories grew 33% was group 28% by comparison Best Buy grew 29% in this it doesn't surprise me the best bike route 29 percent but this is. Makes that the fact that Electronics was one of the slowest growing categories at 7% make even less percent make even less sense I guess it's it's hard to imagine how. Electronics only grew seven percent over the last two years when you know everyone bought all this extra equipment for homeschooling and home entertainment and then with Best Buy growing 29 percent it's even harder to imagine. Scot: [19:53] Yeah maybe in a perfect world you could then split like something like that into store non-store store / e-commerce and maybe that would tell the story. Jason: [20:00] Yeah yeah again that's like one of the few the, my few answers to to a number of these anomalies and then I know this is like all these numbers in a podcast sock but like then you start getting into like Abercrombie & Fitch 28% Costco 26 percent, Cole's Nordstrom's Walmart grew at 21% which again for you know a huge company, the fortune one company to grow at the industry average is pretty good Nike grew at 20%. T.j. Maxx at 15% and the the bottom three. A surprise into not surprises so the second worse and third two words were Dollar Tree in Dollar General at 10% growth which is kind of surprising. You know consumers were kind of flush with cash with all the extra economic stimulus they weren't really slowing down their spending and so like you know maybe it wasn't a great season for the value shoppers but a lot of the news was about how these dollar stores were opening tons of stores and we're really thriving so interesting that they both only Drew. 10% and then the the worst performing public company on this was Macy's which grew six percent over the two years not totally surprising. Scot: [21:18] Isn't that the one that Prophet G said was going to crush. Jason: [21:24] Be there be there the future of retailers Macy's not Amazon yeah this chart unfortunately yeah contradicts that prediction so we'll have to wait and see are you Scott Galloway fans you just hang on hang on to your stick to your guns. Scot: [21:38] Good luck with that. Jason: [21:41] Yeah so that's my the rabbit hole that the stupid November numbers took me down so as you can imagine none of my clients got any deliverables in November. Scot: [21:52] When people tell you they don't believe the data what are they reacting to. Jason: [21:57] I think there's a couple categories there are people that are like hey it's the the month-over-month is interesting but like. Who cares right because these are all anomalous months and that's why I went for this two-year stack and and so. My point was I think like when people are saying hey I don't I don't believe the data I actually don't think they meant they don't believe that this is the data that the US Department of Commerce reported I think they're both saying in some cases, I don't think the US Department of Commerce can count very well and what they mostly hang their hat on is is the non store sales not being right and that's fair right like when someone at Best Buy fills out a survey the US Department of Commerce would like them to put their e-commerce sales in one box and their store sales in another box. [22:47] And do they do that I don't know right and does every retailer do that. Properly and consistently I can tell you that the person assigned to fill out the surveys is generally not the most senior accountant at the it's usually not the CFO. Um so so that is imperfect and then what I think they're saying more is. Maybe don't make all your future plans based on like this snapshot of the world because you know we are looking at a unique set of circumstances that resulted in this data right so if you mistakenly thought my takeaway was retail is better than ever and you know everybody should double down because you know retailers is the most thriving industry in the world 22 percent growth is amazing and it's going to continue forever. [23:36] Yeah no that's not what I'm saying I'm just saying that like it's interesting there were positive and negative impacts on all these businesses as a result of the pandemic but on the aggregate. The impact was disproportionately positive and I don't think that that is sustainable right like I you know I think we will hope to drop down to the regular the sort of pre-pandemic growth levels and potentially. We pulled some growth forward and we might even see some more lean years because we you know absorb so much growth this time. Scot: [24:10] This a long way of you saying you now agree with the the Goldman Sachs chart that showed five years of acceleration. Jason: [24:15] No no I think that still is pretty clear and they were primarily talking about e-commerce which definitely didn't happen. Scot: [24:23] Checking. Jason: [24:25] So that's my my deep dive into data and if there's there can't be anything more fun than listening to a podcast about a bunch of dudes being a bunch of numbers so I will I'll do two things I'll try to put some of this data in the show notes but what I'll do is I'll put a link in the show notes to download some charts with this data in it. Scot: [24:46] Very cool I actually like you spewing data so maybe I'm just an audience of one. Jason: [24:53] You may be in a liar. Scot: [24:56] So what are you seeing so that kind of gets us through November what are you seeing here in December I poked around on the usual spots for the Adobe and the sales force and a couple others and it's really weird they've been kind of quiet since since kind of the Cyber week what what are you hearing from your clients. Jason: [25:17] Yeah so I don't know like there's not good data that's already reporting December sales for holiday but so anecdotally talking to a bunch of clients and talking to some of these companies that do have internal data. December is looking like a good month right and so the. My kind of aggregate estimate is holiday for 2021 is going to end up being about. Nine percent bigger than holiday 2020 and again you say well as nine percent good or bad by historical standards it's pretty darn good most most years we get about a holiday grows less than the rest of the year because there's so much extra volume in it so most years we get about five percent growth in holiday in 2019 we got four percent growth 9% is a big number and last year was a pretty big growth year and so. Um you know also around nine percent so nine percent on top of 9% is a. Pretty big deal I have seen some estimates that think it'll grow even more than nine percent this year to put that in perspective the last time before last year there grew nine percent would have been like 1999 so so not only do we have great growth over two years we do have great holiday growth one huge caveat. [26:43] The trend up until about a week ago was, that more people were returning to the store store traffic was going up we were seeing kind of pre-pandemic shopping behaviors and e-commerce was still a big deal bigger than ever before but the rate of growth was swelling because, there was so much pent-up demand and go to stores lots of people were planning on getting together with their family like there was a funny Walmart stat about you know how much bigger the turkeys were that got sold this year than last year because people were, we're entertaining a lot more so, unfortunately in kind of real-time chats with most of my clients in the last week we have seen foot traffic to stores dramatically curtail and it feels like. We're very quickly getting a lot of negative Media news around and I say media but I guess it's based on the data about Omicron and the hypothesis is there either, Omicron has people scared and so they're not going to stores or a second hypothesis is everyone desperately wants to have their family gathering so they're being extra cautious leading up to Christmas but in either case, we're seeing this last-minute pivot to e-commerce and that has some impacts like the shipping companies that actually been doing. [28:04] Much better job this year than last year on keeping up with ship again in but if suddenly everyone you know runs towards e-commerce these last two weeks that could really put. [28:15] Shipping in Jeopardy in a in a really vulnerable time when they have a lot of Labor challenges so yeah I don't know it's kind of a Debbie Downer bit of news in this whole thing. Scot: [28:26] Yeah yeah I'm a crime that has a it's going to put next year kind of up into a question mark of what happens is and then. The thing that's really frustrating trying to operate a business during this time frame is the bookmarks of good and bad are so wide that. Dirty you have no idea but you drive a truck through and right there 180 degrees so you read one new source it's like oh it's super mild and it's almost going to act like its own vaccine then you see another source and it's like we're all gonna die. Somewhere hopefully we're somewhere in the middle there. Jason: [28:58] Amen Ya Know It's Tricky yeah and kind of evaluating all these data sources that's like the new the new societal challenge right. Scot: [29:09] It really is. Jason: [29:12] So I'm wondering so that's that's kind of my holiday snapshot some good news and some bad news in there I wanted to take a couple minutes on this podcast because I think this is going to be our last show of the year to kind of zoom out from the minutiae and just kind of think about the year in totality and kind of, don't know you know highlight what we think are the big things that happened in our industry this year that might impact us going forward how do you feel about that. Scot: [29:39] Let's do it you want to go first. Jason: [29:41] I mostly wanted you to go first because I thought I would surprise you and make you get bet answers while I thought about it. Scot: [29:48] Okay I'll go first so so I'm going to try to limit it to three because we. Yeah we could go on for for a long time here so I think the highlights of this year for me, it would be a Jason and Scot show if we didn't think a little bit about Amazon the. Build out of Amazon's shipping infrastructure and I feel like we say this every year but it's accelerating and there's some really good data we want to have a guest on that's publishing some data on this just Amazon has built more capacity in the last two years than they had in the last 10 so they've used the pandemic as a you know the response to it and they've gotten kind of cover I guess you could say is to really. 10x down on fulfillment infrastructure where where you get the most feeling of that is that the last mile which is this DS p– program that they've just really scaled up massively. This touches my my day job because it's Biffy we'd service a lot of these folks and they're just they're everywhere and, you know it used to be they would kind of work out a fulfillment systems then they built these fulfillment centers now they've got these see the last word of station what are they call them. [31:02] Delivery stations that have a whole new nomenclature where they now are have these forward-deployed areas where the dsps are almost housed and Aggregates you'll go to these places and it's pretty well that I've seen several of them now and they'll be like 20 dsps operating out of there these little micro businesses and you know just. [31:22] Prime Vans as far as I can see. Where is the stat that I think is kind of the most interesting is the Amazon did disclose that they plan to ship more than then FedEx this year and then I think they said in the next couple of years they'll exceed the USPS as far as package delivery it doesn't surprise me just given the scale that they are throwing at this thing. For example you can't buy a van today because the Amazon is just pretty ordered all the vans so it's pretty fascinating the scale they've done there. The thing that in our will do our annual predictions but I've been annually predicting that they would compete more directly with FedEx and UPS by offering just package delivery to anybody I just feels like we're a lot closer to that but I say that every year so we'll see, the other surprise for me is the explosion of this 15-minute grocery delivery world the most people have probably their first experience this or the first company heard was go puff and it wasn't really a 15-minute thing it was just kind of faster it was almost hours then you had instacart really scale up and then what's happened is the service level on these things it's got lower to the point where they're all trying to get you something in 15 minutes. It's a smaller number of skus than you would get with like Amazon's 300 million skus available so it's typically going to be. [32:43] You know you probably have a cool word for it but it's like snacks and oh my gosh I'm out of a soda I need or ice cream things that you kind of have an urgent hankering for and are willing to pay to scratch that itch a little bit more. On the shipping and handling fees and those kinds of things these are kinds of things when I talk to people they're like yeah that little the economics will never work in the be no one will ever use it and then everyone's always surprised because you can never underestimate the convenience or any consumer that when you give them the choice to do something with convenience they will, they will do it and they will order things you would never have thought about. I remember when Amazon rolled out Prime now they were shocked that the toilet paper and personal products were such a high considered item and it's just you know. People people don't plan ahead and they run out of stuff and they want it right then and there willing to pay extra for it so that one's pretty interesting and you track this probably even better I do Amazon's going after this one and then there's like, 10 startups in there that are have all raised, billions of dollars go puff just announcer one and a half billion dollar extension of their last round by layering on some debt so there's one called like gorillas or gorillas and. [33:55] Tons of these things out there but Amazon scaling it up too so it's gonna be interesting to see if any of these guys can make Headway against Amazon or Famas on will just crush them. [34:05] And then the last one is live-streaming this one sputtering in the US, every data point outside the US indicates it's a thing and I do think this one's going to translate from I've seen it I've seen data that shows that as a has expanded out of China and that's kind of where maybe a year ago we were talking about it largely on Alibaba platform. But now I think it's there's European startups I'm starting to see some categories in the US where this is interesting I followed the collectible category and there's a couple of the hot companies are they do these live streams where they will do. Unboxings so they will they will buy a pack of cards from like the 80s and then they will open them live and and see what's in there and and you know, it's kind of riveting if you're if you're into that and you're like I wonder you know there's a one in 100 chance that this has a Michael Jordan rookie card or something and they pull that the column poles that can be fascinating so there's a lot of. Kind of very specific category activity going there that I think I think a lot of us thought okay Amazon's and do this Amazon is tried and it's been pretty terrible but I think it's going to come from these really niche of Articles at first and they're going to figure it out and then you'll see it get more more momentum up into the broader retailers so those are those are my three. Jason: [35:27] Wow those are three good ones I feel like you stole my three I'm just kidding um no but I totally agree with all those I do think like we've actually seen Amazon launch some. Selling of shipping services and I've seen Stan said they're going to deliver 90% of their own packages this holiday so like I think that definitely is a thing even Walmart is now, selling shipping services to other people including Home Depot so that's totally interesting Trend hundred percent agree on the live streaming like I kind of call it the D bundling of shopping and you know we have all these e-commerce sites that are good at buying things but we're not very good at product Discovery and it seems like social and video or where a lot of the, the new product discoveries coming from and then that that ultra-fast delivery for filling orders to give you all the words you are asking about the that that's a huge thing and if you think about you know how much retailers are struggling with with grocery profitability like it's a double whammy that wow they're trying to figure out how to solve for profitability the consumers moving to this even you know inherently less profitable order so it's going to be that that's going to be an interesting disruption of the industry so if I were to add 3 to that. I do think just the whole pandemic. [36:41] Acceleration of great digital grocery like is when I talk about a lot and I still think that that is a huge thing like all those predictions about how much the pandemic was accelerating e-commerce for probably wrong but grocery delivery Ecommerce probably did get accelerated five years and to me maybe you know what will ultimately end up being one of the most important things that happened during the pandemic is Amazon invented a new grocery store right this Amazon Fresh concept and it's starting to scale there's more than 30 of them now they have just walk out technology in them which I would have bet against them having this quickly and there are there are lots of investigative journalists that have found. Some interesting real estate footprints that would imply that it's going to scale their that there's a business plan footing out here that had like 300 of these in the UK which is a small island um I think we could look back five years from now and see Amazon is a very meaningful brick-and-mortar grocer and and I think 20:21 is the year it it happened without us totally acknowledging it so I think Jay W groceries an interesting Evolution one that I end up talking about a lot with my clients also driven by Amazon is retail media networks right so you know Amazon, is that a run right now of about 30 billion dollars in ads it's probably the most profitable business Amazon has I think this this. [38:08] Battle for eyeballs between retailers and traditional digital platforms is super interesting and I think you know you set the layer who is. One of the the. The key guys at Amazon media like we had him on the show when he moved to Fresh Direct and he's now running Walmart Connect Four for Walmart so you're seeing the Retailer's hire these like credible media sales people and I think that's a. [38:37] A going forward a significant part of every retailers plan is how to be their own media Network how to get eyeballs and how to monetize those eyeballs and that's a new new skill for a retailer so I think that's a big deal and then the last one I'm gonna throw out, is one that I am surprised doesn't get talked about more but it's the apparel retailer she in and I think they are super interesting they've had phenomenal success they're probably globally the largest apparel reseller on the planet right now and their their annual revenues are more than than H&M and Zara combined so so remarkable. [39:18] Story of fast acceleration but the bigger story here is, to me Sheehan is very representative of the democratization of apparel that like for the longest time we expected Mickey Drexler or Versace or Yeezy to tell us like what was cool to wear and then we waited until we can buy those clothes and we bought them and I just I think that model is totally dead now I think the apparel that sells best the stuff that she and sells the stuff that target cells the stuff that Stitch fix cells is frankly based on customer data it's watching customers finding out what they like and then making it really fast and so Sheehan isn't isn't fashion driven by a stylist It's Fashion driven by Tick-Tock right and an Instagram and I think that's a, a lot of apparel companies haven't gotten the memo yet that the consumer is now squarely in charge of these fashion trends. Scot: [40:18] Yeah saw an article about these guys were this this one lady she did this Argyle Sweater outfit and. It was on Instagram it got some viral love they took that and it created a hole the outfit they had copied it or I guess fast fashion and I don't know how the how the IP Works in this world but they had replicated it and they I think they even used her picture which I think was with articles about that she didn't really you know, realize that that effectively shows open sourcing this thing to the world and then it became a top seller for them like in 60 days it was insane how fast that they identified the trend and get the. The product out there it was like you know NASCAR fashion or something. Jason: [41:03] Yeah it's crazy if you think about like the fashion traditionally worked like. Dudes would show up in Paris at the Fashion Show and show these cool Styles and then everyone would steal those Styles and send them an effector he's and two years later those fact those Fashions would be available at Neiman Marcus. Two years later and in so the genius of Gap was that they got those Fashions to the mall, 18 months later instead of two years later and the the disruption of H&M and Zara was that they got them to the mall six months later instead of 18 months later right. She and sees that woman in the crop-top Argyle Sweater and they have they have that fashion available in a week and here's what super interesting they don't make a million of them and hope they sell which is what all those other retailers had to do, they make 12 of them and if those 12 sell in 8 seconds versus 20 seconds then they make thousands of them. Right and so it's really data-driven real-time a/b testing on apparel trans at a speed that that these kind of traditional apparel Brands can't even imagine. Scot: [42:13] That's because they have the factory right there that they're able to do that or like to have some. Jason: [42:17] Yeah and they. In Shane's case they don't own the factories they have a net like that it's a gig worker economy for factories right like so in the same way that boober recruits a bunch of Uber drivers she and recruits a bunch of factories that they then go to and say hey we've got some some ideas for some new models and find one of those factories that accepts the order and makes the the stuff and so in sometimes there's our Factory driven ideas sometimes there she and driven ideas but but yeah that's that's the model and you know there is a Dark Side to this I got you know a lot of its there's a lot of questions about the labor standards and practices at a bunch of these factories and of course there's. You know a lot of the stuff that gets bought on Shion is super cheap and gets worn once and so it's a ecological disaster I would argue the industry it's disrupting is also. Kind of a you know it has a lot of dark sides and and is not very sustainable so I like I'm not sure she and improves on on any of those problems but from a pure consumer demand standpoint, I don't think we're ever going back to you know these like anointed tastemakers that like decide what we're all going to wear for the next year. Scot: [43:32] Yet clearly clearly that model is sailed having. Jason: [43:36] Indeed well listen Scott I know we both have to run but that is probably a great place to wrap up our final show of 20:21 I need to take some downtime not to see my family or anything like that but in early January we always like to record the forecasts show and hit traditionally you crush me and so I feel like I need to spend a lot more time thinking about my forecast before the forecast show comes up. Scot: [44:07] Yeah challenge accepted I will also be thinking about this in a background processes I'm enjoying the holiday I think this is a good time to thank our listeners you know we've you know we've seen our listenership grow pretty steadily over the years and we really appreciate everyone giving us time to your day to talk about the topics we talk about and we get a lot of great feedback and really engaged set of listeners and we really appreciate you listening and if you want to share your appreciation one of the ways you can do that is through a five star rating so fire up your favorite podcast listening technology and if you would leave us a five starters we that would be the perfect holiday gift for us. Jason: [44:47] Yeah that's exact five stars is exactly my size to Scott. Scot: [44:50] How about that. Jason: [44:53] Awesome well most of can't appreciate enough the listeners for spending this time with us every week this is a lot of fun for us to do and I learned so much from the the chats I have with folks after they listen to the podcast so I'm that is one of the things I'm super grateful for. Scot: [45:10] Everyone have a great holiday Jason you how enjoy your trip to California. Jason: [45:14] Thank you you have a wonderful holiday as well and until next time happy commercing!
It's the 85th episode of the Truth About Vintage Amps featuring special guest, Calvin McCormick (Hiwatt, @ampfreek)! This week's episode is sponsored by Jupiter Condenser Co., Amplified Parts and Grez Guitars. Support us on Patreon.com for added content and the occasional surprise. Download the 2021 TAVA Cookbook here. Some of the topics discussed this week: 1:59 El Pato hot sauce in a bottle 3:13 Nothing but cans: Skip's recent meal 9:58 Update on the amp that lost the majority of its volume during shipping (ep. 84) 11:24 You think this gig is easy, part 7: A Fender Reverb unit with nearly every part replaced 17:42 The tone of the Fender Twins in the Beatles' 'Get Back' documentary 23:41 Special guest: Calvin McCormick (McCormick Analog / Hiwatt / @ampfreek): Meeting Hy Bloom, founder of Soundmaster; Hiwatt today; a new Hiwatt fuzz pedal announcement, Grand Funk Railroad, Garnet Herzog, MTI tube stompboxes and lots more. 1:03:23 Laurens Hammond, inventor of the Hammond organ 1:08:02 Fender 5F2 vs 5F2A fuse specification 1:11:37 The input pre-amp on tube PAs, 12AX7 versus 12AT7 1:14:58 What makes a good steel amp; Steelin' Home by Noel Boggs (YouTube link) 1:22:12 Reforming NOS capacitor cans: Trash or Treasure? 1:24:39 Fitting a reverb tank with space constraints, cooked salsa 1:27:53 Skip needs an Ampeg Gemini II trem module (TM-1), running an old rotary phone into a computer 1:29:45 Skip's new name 1:30:38 Adding a cut control to a single-ended Vox style amp; cheese dip; Pat Martino's 'Live at Keystone Korner' 1:39:47 Replacing the V1 on a two 12AX7, two 6V6 amp to a 12AU7 Hosted by amp tech Skip Simmons. Co-hosted and produced by the Fretboard Journal's Jason Verlinde. Email or send us a voice memo to: firstname.lastname@example.org or leave us a voicemail or text at 509-557-0848. And don't forget to share the show with friends.
Landaas & Company newsletter December edition now available. Advisors on This Week's Show BOB LANDAAS KYLE TETTING ART ROTHSCHILD KENDALL BAUER (with Max Hoelzl and Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (Dec. 13-17, 2021) SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS & REPORTS Monday No major announcements Tuesday Inflation on the wholesale level rose 9.6% in November from the year before, the most since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began comparable calculations in 2010. The Producer Price Index added 0.8% from October, led by increased costs for energy, transportation and warehousing. Excluding volatile costs for energy, food and trade services, the core 12-month inflation rate was 6.9%, the highest year-to-year gain since 2014. Wednesday The Commerce Department reported a 0.3% rise in retail sales in November, less than half as much as analysts expected. Gas stations led the 13 categories with a monthly gain of 1.7% in sales, helped by increased prices. Electronics and appliance stores led the five categories in which sales declined from October. Compared to the year before, each category advanced, led by a 52% rise for gas stations and a 37% increase in sales at restaurants and bars. Thursday The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the 10th week in a row to reach the lowest level since November 1969. According to Labor Department data, the average moved to 203,750 new applications, down from a record 5.3 million in April 2020 and 45% below the 54-year average. Some 2.5 million Americans claimed jobless benefits in the latest week, up 26% from the week before but down from 21.3 million the year before. The U.S. housing industry picked up pace in November. Both housing starts and building permits accelerated, though both remained below 15-year highs set earlier in 2021. The annual rate of housing starts was up nearly 12% from October; initiations of critical single-family houses rose by 11%. Permits rose 3.6% from their pace in October. Single-family permits were up 2.7%, according to Commerce Department data. The number of houses under construction hit an annual rate of nearly 1.5 million in November, the highest since 1973. U.S. industrial output rose 0.5% in November, reaching its highest level since September 2019, according to the Federal Reserve. Manufacturing output advanced 0.7% with widespread gains, led by automotive. November was manufacturing's biggest month of production since January 2019. Overall capacity utilization rose to 76.8%, the highest in two years. An early indicator of inflationary pressure, capacity usage remained below the long-term average of 79.6%. Friday No major announcements MARKET CLOSINGS FOR THE WEEK Nasdaq – 15170, down 460 points or 2.9% Standard & Poor's 500 – 4621, down 91 points or 1.9% Dow Jones Industrial – 35367, down 604 points or 1.7% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 1.40%, down 0.09 point Send us a question for our next podcast. Not a Landaas & Company client yet? Click here to learn more. More information and insight from Money Talk Money Talk Videos Follow us on Twitter. Landaas newsletter subscribers return to the newsletter via e-mail
GVD Corporation Product Manager, Erika Kirichenko, talks with Microwave Journal Editorial Director, Pat Hindle, about their unique vapor deposited conformal coating that protects high frequency circuits from extreme environments while not affecting their performance. Sponsored by GVD Corporation.
CES is renowned for being a mecca for tech companies. Even so, for 2022 it's attracting a record amount of automotive exhibitors and speakers. One out of three attendees will be coming from automotive and mobility companies. Gary Shapiro, the CEO of the Consumer Technology Association which runs CES, talks about why automotive companies are so devoted to the show and why they want to be there. Also joining the discussion are Pete Bigelow from Automotive News and Sam Abuelsamid from Guidehouse Insights.
CES is renowned for being a mecca for tech companies. Even so, for 2022 it's attracting a record amount of automotive exhibitors and speakers. One out of three attendees will be coming from automotive and mobility companies. Gary Shapiro, the CEO of the Consumer Technology Association which runs CES, talks about why automotive companies are so devoted to the show and why they want to be there. Also joining the discussion are Pete Bigelow from Automotive News and Sam Abuelsamid from Guidehouse Insights.
Happy holidays to you from us at Spoken Word with Electronics. Primary music in track two is goth santas Alien Sex Fiend, whose Stuff the Turkey should be sung around every chimney. We also review an Electro-Voice RE20, whose flat frequency curve at 5K makes it the far better microphone for this show than any Shure product. That mic comparison (RE20 vs SM57 vs SM7B) is discussed in the introduction. Enjoy the season. Oh, Mariah! This track: Demo of RE20 on a shockmount in an untreated room. Comparison of Shure SM7B and Shure SM57 to an Electrovoice RE20.
We have so many great stories untold, we all have them! With each great story comes the experience and insights to make educated decisions contributing to the evolution of our business operations, tools and technologies adopted. Business infrastructure and digital transformation investments are more crucial now than ever as companies explore strengthening their marketing and omni-channel strategy approach to relate to each customer uniquely and improve their experience, but what obstacles contribute to implementation failures and when is the right time to pull the plug? Tune in to this episode of Real Talk with Rob Tavi Ft. Lectrix CEO, Graham Kilshaw and join the conversation as we dig into the reimagining of the electronics B2B industry! Lectrix (formerly ITEM Media) has 40+ years of experience evolving from a publisher of EMI/EMC and Thermal Management media brands to a strategy firm, full-service marketing agency, and online event host dedicated entirely to the B2B electronics industry. They know first-hand how to help ambitious companies achieve success. Want to see the proof, or have a custom request? Check out Lectrix website to learn more! https://lectrixgroup.com/
2021 might be winding down, but the news just keeps on coming! Apple’s Do Not Track feature doesn’t really stop companies from tracking you. YouTube publishes data on the MILLIONS of bogus copyright claims that go through. DARPA created a REAL warp bubble! And we’ve got a TON of leg work to follow up on … Continue reading "#SGGQA 233: UPDATES GALORE! Duo 2, OnePlus 9, Pixel 6! And there was NO Phone of the Year AGAIN!"
Joe Marko, President/Founder of HMS Motorsport. Hosted by Brad Gillie. Online Race Industry Week 2021: 5 days, 55 hours of LIVE webinars, 150+ race industry speakers, 110 countries represented in attendance. Created by EPARTRADE and Racer.com Presented by ETS Racing Fuels and Penske Racing Shocks. Sponsored by AEM Performance Electronics, ARP Inc, & Motul.
Is there a legitimate reason why we must power down all our electronics on planes? Has EMI ever caused an actual plane crash? What are some of the potential solutions? What is the new issue with 5G and planes? ... we explain like I'm five Thank you to the r/explainlikeimfive community and in particular the following users whose questions and comments formed the basis of this discussion: ak2040, elietech, cycle_chyck, mikeofallpeople, concussion962 and iknowwhoyouareguy To the ELI5 community that has supported us so far, thanks for all your feedback and comments. Join us on Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/eli5ThePodcast/ or send us an e-mail: ELI5ThePodcast@gmail.com
On this episode, Ben and Burke take a close look at whether or not living expenses in Japan are higher than in other countries. Japan certainly seems to have a reputation of being an expensive country, and in one of the articles the guys look at, Americans say that they were surprised at how much more it costs to live in Japan compared to the US. So what costs are higher in Japan, and do the guys agree with the opinion that it costs more to live in Japan compared to the US and UK? Listen to find out now!Sponsors:Bearfoot BarLocated in downtown Sapporo, walking distance from the subway station. There are variety of Japanese made craft bottled beers. A range of whiskeys and basic cocktails also available. Burgers and pub style snacks. Friendly English and Japanese speaking staff. https://www.facebook.com/bearfootbarThe Red House Located in the heart of Rusutsu Ski Resort, just cross the main road and it's behind the Seicomart Convenience store. The restaurant features a mix of Japanese, Asian fusion, and western Style dishes, including shabu-shabu with wagyu beef and Hokkaido wagyu beef steak. Open winter and summer, 12-3pm for lunch, 5-9pm for dinner, with prices ranging from under Yen 1000 to about Yen 5000. https://theredhouse.jp/ Rusutsu LodgesOpen all year round. Located 5 minutes walk to the main Rusutsu Ski Resort Gondola. There are Japanese, Western, and apartment style rooms with breakfast packages available. There's a Japanese sento (public bath), two convenience stores less than a minute walk, ski room and tune up tables, plenty of free parking space, and summer BBQ packages available. Check out the website for more information and availability. http://rusutsulodges.comHokkaido GuideEstablished over 10 years ago, written by locals for locals and international tourists. The guide contains information on all types of businesses and locations around Hokkaido. There's information regarding all things Hokkaido such as sightseeing, nightlife, events, services, food and restaurants, entertainment, outdoor activities, and more. Currently offered in English and Thai, advertising space available. Check out website for everything you need to know about this beautiful prefecture. https://hokkaidoguide.comUse our Buzzsprout affiliate link to start your podcast today! Website:https://www.voicesinjapan.com/Follow us and check out our other content:https://twitter.com/voicesinjapanhttps://www.facebook.com/voicesinjapan/https://www.instagram.com/voicesinjapan/Get in touch: email@example.comSupport the show (https://www.buymeacoffee.com/voicesinjapan)
Arduino UNO Mini Limited Edition (0:36) https://www.adafruit.com/product/5333?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=videodescrip&utm_campaign=newproducts 0.05" Pitch Thru-Hole Female Socket Header 2x5 10-pin (2:40) https://www.adafruit.com/product/5327?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=videodescrip&utm_campaign=newproducts Programming the Pico: Learn Coding & Electronics w/ the Pico - by Simon Monk (3:37) https://www.adafruit.com/product/5320?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=videodescrip&utm_campaign=newproducts Electronics Kit for Programming the Pico by Simon Monk - Pico Not Included (3:55) https://www.adafruit.com/product/5321?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=videodescrip&utm_campaign=newproducts Meditation Chanting Prayer Speaker Box (4:42) https://www.adafruit.com/product/5304?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=videodescrip&utm_campaign=newproducts Adafruit MSA311 Triple Axis Accelerometer - STEMMA QT / Qwiic (6:07) https://www.adafruit.com/product/5309?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=videodescrip&utm_campaign=newproducts -------------------------------------- Shop for all of the newest Adafruit products: http://adafru.it/new Visit the Adafruit shop online - http://www.adafruit.com Adafruit on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/adafruit LIVE CHAT IS HERE! http://adafru.it/discord Subscribe to Adafruit on YouTube: http://adafru.it/subscribe New tutorials on the Adafruit Learning System: http://learn.adafruit.com/ -----------------------------------------
101 Dimensions curated by Anthony Rowsick, December 2021:1. Ott – 16mm Summer Day; Coursing Batch; and Harwell Dekatron (23:24) (from the album Fairchildren (2015)2. Vangelis Mouettes; Chromatique; Irlande; and Flamants Roses (22:29) (from the album Opera Sauvage, 1979)3. Röyksopp – Silver Cruiser; True To Life; It's What I Want; and Across The Graveyard (17:56) (from the album Junior, 2009)4. John Carpenter – Abyss; Wraith; Purgatory; and Night (18:54) (from the album Lost Themes, 2015)5. Matt Baber – Parts 6 – 10 (22:38) (from the album Suite For Piano and Electronics, 2018)
It's the 84th episode of the Truth About Vintage Amps! This week's episode is sponsored by Jupiter Condenser Co., Amplified Parts and Grez Guitars. Support us on Patreon.com for added content and the occasional surprise. Some of the topics discussed this week: 1:52: Full transcription of Ep. 83 on our Patreon (yay or nay?) 4:14 Skip's recommended gifts: Jack Darr, Joy of Cooking, the Gibson amp book, the Ampeg amp book, Fender Amps: The First 50 Years; El Pato 6:57 A new baffler: 1964 Super Reverb with a three-prong cord 10:10 A pristine 1956 Fender Pro that needs TLC 14:42 An Audio Guild Bonham 120 with low vibrato intensity 20:34 Taming a Fender Twin Reverb reissue by pulling the 12AX7 on the normal channel 27:27 ID'ing the oil for a Tel-Ray oil-can echo unit / Ucon LB-65 29:55 How to find replacement 1" diameter Mallory can capacitors for a 1950s Valco with 1" diameter Mallory can capacitors, re-using old funky wire, the Fender 5E5 Pro input, adapt-a-cap.com 40:36 A 1965-ish Princeton Reverb that makes wave crashing sounds 42:31 PSA on three-prong power cords: SVT or SJT jackets 45:46 Finding time in your busy life to work on amps 50:57 Changing the circuit on a late 1940s Harmony Model 200; Mr. In-Between; Pig 57:51 Fender Concert IIs: Any good? 1:01:07 Resistors influence on tone? 1:06:10 Ledaig single malt scotch, Jameson's Black Barrel whiskey, and other stuff sent to Skip; Body and Soul Pedals by listener Yann (firstname.lastname@example.org, available at Real Guitars in SF) 1:12:02 A recently shipped tube amp that lost its volume 1:16:53 The unique field coil wiring on a Hammond M-3 organ 1:24:19 Some Leslie 147 amp discoveries 1:33:47 The answer to this week's baffler 1:35:08 A Tweed Bassman clone with a loud squeal Hosted by amp tech Skip Simmons. Co-hosted and produced by the Fretboard Journal's Jason Verlinde. Email or send us a voice memo to: email@example.com or leave us a voicemail or text at 509-557-0848. And don't forget to share the show with friends.
2021 might be winding down, but the news just keeps on coming! Apple is having a rough week. Employees are pushing back against NDAs, AirTags are being used to steal cars, iPhone orders are being reduced, and iMessage is one of the more “open” messengers for giving your data to the feds. Also, the FTC … Continue reading "#SGGQA 232: AirTags for Car Thieves, NVIDIA vs FTC, Pixel 6a Rumors!"
Hooooo boooooy...this week we sit down with good ole' Texas boy Eric Calvert to talk about his band (Swithblade Jesus), his business (Frost Giant Electronics), Architects of Reality, and much more. Eric was a damned delight! We'll also drop a link to a fundraiser record(s) for a band we listened to in the past (Trigger Cut) who's studio burned down...give if you can, share if you can't...you get all kinds of killer music, and it's only $3 for all three records (GIVE MORE).Trigger Cut Studio Fundraiserhttps://nooooooo111.bandcamp.com/album/noooooooSwitchblade Jesushttps://switchbladejesus.bandcamp.com/album/death-hymnsFrost Giant Electronicshttps://fuzzworship.com/This Week's SubmissionsAbrahamhttps://abrahamband.bandcamp.com/album/look-here-comes-the-darkThe Noctambulanthttps://thenoctambulant.bandcamp.com/album/hellrazor-epEndtimehttps://heavypsychsoundsrecords.bandcamp.com/album/endtime-impending-doomTerror Cósmicohttps://terrorcosmico.bandcamp.com/album/muerte-y-transfiguraci-nBands! Submit one song (preferably from Bandcamp) to firstname.lastname@example.org and we'll try to cover it on another episode. Find us on social media @blyndsubmyshynz.YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCi_8QVmx1ggBQHGKln88UNwTheme song by Francis Anger RobertsVO by Pete HollandLogo by Nick Fox
Hi babes!! In today's epi, we are spilling the tea on all the new updates Poshmark has released over the last few months + dishing out our best strategies on how you can utilize these updates to enhance your bizz!Here are some of the Posh updates you can expect to hear about:- Bulk Actions- Sold Listings- Style Tags- Electronics- My Shoppersand more!! Also tune into Epi 40 for part 1 if you haven't had a chance to listen yet :)Join the community on our Insta! We'd love to hear your thoughts and any tips you may have!! https://www.instagram.com/thedimestorecowgirls/If you loved our show, rate & review us so that we can shout you out in a future episode!
EP282 - Cyberweek Recap with Salesforce's Rob Garf Rob Garf (@retailrobgarf) is VP and GM, Retail at Salesforce. Rob returns to the show for the third time (EP249 and EP110) to talk about November, and especially cyber week e-commerce sales. The Salesforce shopping index combines data and holiday insights on the activity of more than a billion global shoppers across more than 54 countries powered by Commerce Cloud, billions of consumer engagements and millions of public social media conversations through Marketing Cloud, and customer service data powered by Service Cloud. We cover e-commerce sales in November 2021 vs 2020 and 2019. First mile issues, last mile issues, inflation, winning and losing categories, predictions for December. Episode 282 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Tuesday, November 30th, 2021 http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 282 being recorded on Tuesday November 30th 20:21 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scott Wingo. Scot: [0:39] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott showed listeners well Jason we're in the thick of it we are recording this the day after Cyber Monday this is our favorite time of the year and who better to help us recap the turkey five than longtime friend of the show Rob Garf he is the VP and GM retailgeek at Salesforce and he is here to sling some hot data and some fresh takes welcome Rob. Rob: [1:06] Hey Scott Jason it's great to be here as always happy holidays. Jason: [1:12] Happy holidays to you Rob I feel like it wouldn't be holidays if I if we weren't recording a podcast with you it's kind of an annual tradition. Rob: [1:20] Absolutely look forward to it every year. Jason: [1:22] So before we jump into it remind our listeners who you are and what you do for Salesforce. Rob: [1:30] Yeah absolutely some VP and GM for retail so what that means is I oversee the industry product solution and insights and the insights portion is really what brings me here today we have a team whose Charter is really to stay out in the industry understand where. The retail space is going and that helps us really think about our products and solution but also have really interesting. And informative conversations with our customers as well and most of that data and Analysis is based on our shopping index are shopping index looks at all the data that flows through the Commerce Cloud platform we obviously bubble that up. We strip out all the pii data and it really becomes the de facto standard of what's happening in retail and this is our holiday it's our Super Bowl where we really allow the data to come to life and not only project where. The industry is going over the critical holiday time but report on it so it's been a couple of sleepless nights over the last week and really excited to be here today to crawl through the data and just have really good conversations with two good friends. Jason: [2:38] We are excited to do it and I'm extra excited because if I'm not mistaken it seems like you have a bigger scope than you did last time you were on the show did you get a promotion because of what a good job you did on the show. Rob: [2:52] I think it was exactly that and I appreciate it by the way your check is in the mail yeah you know certainly. It's important to Salesforce to look at Industries and industries as a practice within Salesforce has really then one of the focus one of the priority areas over the last couple years and so for retail taking a real close look at what products what Solutions we have to bring to Market across the entire supply chain obviously in Salesforce we grew up in the sales and service space grew to marketing Commerce now and analytics and data and collaboration but we want to look at it always through the industry lens and in this case that's retail so it's my Charter along with the insights that I talked about a minute ago to oversee our product and solution strategy so thanks for that help by the way. Jason: [3:43] It was well-earned and well-deserved so good props test Salesforce erect for recognizing talent and I want to call out I feel like you're famous for three things first for being on the Jason and Scot show. Second for all the great work you do foreign with your co-workers at Salesforce and then third you are the. Kind of egotistical center of the whole garfi movement. Rob: [4:11] Haha you know I miss that's one of the many things I miss about the pandemic is not being able to do live gar fees that I've been out on the road. Over the last I don't know how to say four to six weeks or so and it's been a highlight to get back at that a little bit so can you promise me gentlemen in a couple weeks hopefully knock on wood will be back in New York for NRF and we can get another garfi of us we can try it virtually here it's just not always the same so we can see how that plays out. Scot: [4:42] Yeah yeah we're always up for garfi and that's got several in my library. Jason: [4:46] So before we move on from that explain to our listeners what a garfi is. Rob: [4:51] Yeah of course so garfi obviously a play on selfie and you know I struggled for a long time trying to find my persona. Via social you know first was LinkedIn and you know what I realized is I spent a lot of time on the road and when I'm on the road I need a lot of awesome people and when I meet those people I get really inspired and so I just you know for no plan in particular started taking pictures with them and me whether it's one-on-one one you know a few of us or me up on stage and just turning around and doing I selfie with a bunch of people in the crowd and a much more creative person than I am. Salesforce's social media team all of a sudden one day said that's a garfi and then you know really where it came to life is over and our F that same person had a great idea to say hey why don't we make some money for a charity by. [5:53] Donating a certain amount of money. For every time somebody takes a selfie or a garfi with me and that I guess I don't know two or three years running we've connected and collaborated with the retail orphan initiative great music in friends and really raise money for kids in need and so it has a nice altruistic angle to it which of course is part of Salesforce and ar111 model and giving back really please really closely to our values so I'm able to do a couple of things, really share with those in the social sphere what I'm up to hopefully helping. Inspire them like it's expired inspired me and then finally raise some money in and around NRL so that's kind of I don't know if I've ever shared and not much detail the Genesis of it but it was fun doing it so thanks for asking. Jason: [6:49] Yeah and I also admire I feel like it's an underappreciated talent to take a good selfie I feel like I really struggled frame the photo well with my arm fully extended and hit the shutter and you I don't know if you started out doing it this easily but I feel like in more recent years it seems like you do it effortlessly so just hats off to you on your quality of your selfies. Rob: [7:12] I mean that's the best compliment I'll get all day or holiday I can tell you that right now I started I was really bad like really bad and now my family like I'm the go-to during holidays to be able to do it so yeah it's you know chin up don't go you know don't angle to I don't go to Le I mean I could write probably a social posts are a blogger I don't know there might be something in there. Jason: [7:36] Art of the the art of the garfi. Rob: [7:37] The art of the confit. Jason: [7:39] Yeah I strongly I strongly encourage that and then getting slightly closer to like topics that that our listeners came for I do want to caveat one thing we're going to be talking a lot about how holiday has played out and what the interesting Trends are and just I want to underscore the mainland's you're looking at this through is a online lens so I'm sure I'm sure the bulk of your clients are omni-channel and you get some some good insight into what's happening in stores but the actual data set is measuring how much consumers shop and buy on websites is that do I have that right. Rob: [8:16] Totally you got that right I mean if you think about it as I mentioned the shopping and X which we have throughout the year and we release it quarterly is really the backbone of it it's billions and billions of Shoppers digitally it's across thousands of sites across dozens and dozens of countries yeah like you said we do do primary research and we do have some instrumentation understand some of the things that show the intersection between online and digital but the short answer to your point Jason it is really primarily the digital shopping that we've seen. Scot: [8:53] We'll call let's that's really good backdrop and we should definitely dig into the garfi thing on another episode but the enough foreshadowing how are things going for the holiday season give us kind of the the big picture. Rob: [9:08] Yeah well you know coming into this sky the way we're looking at it even going back till June was you know if last year's headline with ship a gettin was all around a smile how and if products are going to get to the doorstep of the consumer this has been all about the first mile we've all heard about it I think you're going Supply pain right so it's more of the inbound Logistics the container stuck off the port of LA and trouble getting the containers off the vessels in through the domestic supply chain and that's really, kind of cast the context for the holiday and you know the headline in addition to the first Mile and the issues that retailers have been seeing is a pulling forward of holiday demand you know it's something that retailers have wished for four decades upon decades and this year it actually came to life I have a lot more to share on that you know I can keep on going but I can also pause as well to see if you have any. Follow up questions are just you know you can just fly me up I can tell you a little bit more of what we're seeing broadly in the holiday so far. Scot: [10:22] Yeah one of the theories was that you know the Press wasn't shy about the supply pain and consumers you know when my aunt ji is asking me about this stuff I was I know it's reached the zeitgeist. How do you say it pull it Forward are you talking like right even like before Halloween you saw unusual activity or like give us an idea of like how how much of the the oxygen move to the front of the balloon there. Rob: [10:47] Yeah yeah yeah well like that oxygen moved to the front of blue and I like that might have to borrow that Scott yeah so so what we saw is that. Real demand got pulled forward you know if you look at the first two weeks of November we saw an 18% year-over-year increase and that is significant last year we saw a bit, in October because Prime day if you remember got pulled into October and we had that halo effect so if you were named Amazon you were still you know getting some of that Halo of the demand and the buzz and the conditioning that happened but it really simmer down late October through. November until the week before cyberweek this year really you know again as I mentioned 18% year-over-year increase for the first two weeks of November you pull that out to the first three weeks in November we saw a 10% your of your increase so there actually was a pull forward and you know I want to. [11:48] Put this in context I mentioned retailers have been hoping and dreaming for this forever I call this discount chicken you might remember I reference this last year probably last couple years I've been on the show and this is this phenomena where retailers go into the holiday season with this amazing promotional calendar all the expertise all the data all the analysis and after the first week. They usually rip it up call an audible and they chased the discount and you know consumers have been conditioned to wait it out. Consumers typically win the game a discount chicken they wait until Black Friday they wait until Cyber Monday, for that last big deal and this year I have to say given what we've seen so far consumers aren't winning at that game. Retailers have really held their own on discounts and you combine that with like you mentioned the headlines that consumers were seeing around the supply chain and you know inflationary concerns as well and they were actually buying early and that did have an impact by the way spoil alert on cyberweek all you know all in. Jason: [13:06] Awesome will you open the door so let's dive in there so first of all you you call it cyberweek and so what what is that weak to you does that start Thursday Friday when does it. Marker 01 Rob: [13:17] Yeah good call so yeah we look at cyberweek from the Tuesday before American Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday it's the way we've been, reporting on it for the last bunch of years than just for like for like now analysis we've kept that I know there's the turkey five and the Cyber five that certainly are looked at for benchmarks and you know partly why we do that is we started to see early on a smoothing out of demand not just through the course of November as I just referenced before but over the course of the week and we wanted to represent that in a more holistic way so you know the short answer to your question we look at it from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving all the way through Cyber Monday. Jason: [14:01] Perfect and fun fact for our listeners Thanksgiving is obviously a North American holiday but Black Friday and cyber week our Global phenomenon which is interesting the holiday is not Global but the shopping is so how did cyberweek play out we're recording this a day after cyberweek so we're we up from. 20/20 and I'd also love to know how he did versus 2019. Rob: [14:24] Yeah absolutely so we wore up so for the course of cyberweek we were up four percent year-over-year and that represents about sixty two billion dollars with the be of digital revenue and you know you look at that number and you say wow that's kind of you know muted it's kind of leveling off and I can't lie it is because we saw such a significant Spike to your point from 2019 to 2020 so there's a whole new Baseline that's been set but to really replicate that seismic growth that we saw last year with non-essential retail closed people really focused on their health and their safety also looking at dealing with retailers that provided convenience and Trust. I see four percent year-over-year as as good as you know a retailer should hope right again because retailers should have seen brand should have seen that pulling forward of demand earlier in the season. Jason: [15:28] Yeah and then can you and part of it is last year was a monster year for digital so like do you do you have your like do you do it a two-year year-over-year or do you remember what the growth was last year for cyberweek just for frame for comparison. Rob: [15:44] You know I don't have that exact number in front of you what I can say for the holiday so November December was 50% year-over-year growth so you know you got to imagine suck cyberweek was way up there I could tell you that Force four. Black Friday in the u.s. because those are u.s. numbers just to remind you to sixty two billion at the four percent year-over-year we saw 20 percent growth. On Black Friday so that gives you a sense of what you saw throughout the year a lot of the growth last year actually came the week before. Cyberweek and in large part because the two of you everybody saw a ship again in like everybody right it made the Today Show. Large part really in the growth the for cyberweek last year we saw something like eighty percent year-over-year growth for the week before. Cyberweek because consumer saw the headline you know I was asked by a customer just recently in the specialty apparel space. Who worked for the wholesale division asking will this year. Consumers understand the issues that are happening in the inbound supply chain unlike last year where ship again was front and center I mean we all felt the Bermuda Triangle of packages being you know delayed significantly so as a consumer. [17:07] That kind of triggered you to think hey maybe I should buy early to make sure I get the product and also by the way maybe I should buy online and pick up in store so I know I can actually. Pick it up because it's more black a smile under my control. [17:22] That's my long way saying once again we saw growth last year in large part 3 cyberweek Black Friday we saw twenty percent so this 4% bringing it back today. Around cyberweek was you know leveling off from prior years but was on such a significant or based on such a significant New Normal that we really hit last year and by the way we don't see the snapping back to what we saw before the pandemic. Jason: [17:51] Yeah and I think that's a mistake people make and in their head when they're looking at growth rates they see this year's 4% is smaller than last year's twenty to thirty percent and they say oh gosh digital shrinking and no it's growing off a huge number from last year it just growing in a smaller slower rate than it than it did last year. Rob: [18:13] Exactly and by the way people are getting back into the store right especially for those not essential retail we're experiencing something and they want to go talk to a knowledgeable store associate and want to touch and feel the product you know they actually want to see friends out in a mall believe it or not and so there's you know. A rising tide here that's really lifting both digital and physical so you can't kind of look at one without the other I don't think there's a cannibalization happening per se because you're still seeing growth but you can't forget what's happening in-store this holiday. Jason: [18:48] Yeah it's super interesting and inside just to highlight like macro Trend that you're sort of underscoring here so this year cyberweek grew around 4% but holiday digital is growing in like ten percent so I'm gonna I'm gonna do risky public math that sounds like the holiday spike is kind of flattening out and holidays becoming more about that hole. Um cyber November if you will instead of instead of cyberweek is that do I have that right. Rob: [19:21] You got it spot-on Jason you know just throwing some more numbers at you because I know you love them but I know there's a lot is that for November and you hit it by the way you said 10% we saw based on a nine percent year-over-year growth across, the month of November and so in the US that represents 136 billion dollars of online sales so there is this smoothing out there is this flattening I'm not ready to put the nail in the coffin for Cyber Monday and Black Friday just you know consumers are just so condition to shop on those days but retailers can't ignore the fact that you know these spikes are still relevant but there is this smoothing out that started even before this year and we saw even more pronounced this year. Jason: [20:16] Yeah I was talking to a very big client and they were talking about how early in his career they used to celebrate this anomaly where the wear like during cyberweek they would have their. There billion dollar day in total retail sales and this year every day in November is a billion dollars for them. Yeah. So I am still curious even though it does seem like it's slightly less relevant it still is a super interesting novel to me novelty to me can you break down. The key days within cyberweek like I'm always interested in. E-commerce sales on Black Friday versus Cyber Monday and whether you know with the Advent of the smartphone are we selling more stuff at the Thanksgiving table on Thursday what sort of Trends did you see across the week. Rob: [21:11] Yeah I love it that's awesome yeah so let's dive into that you know a couple of things here you know Cyber Monday we saw a three percent year-over-year growth representing eleven point three billion and digital sales on Black Friday we saw five percent year-over-year growth which represented thirteen point four million and online sales and so we saw. [21:38] And this isn't the first year on this it's happening over the course of the last three or four maybe even five years. That Black Friday is a bigger digital sales day van Cyber Monday let me say that again Black Friday according to our data is a bigger digital sales day and Cyber Monday a lot of that you hinted at it Jason is that Cyber Monday you all know this was really. Coming to bear from our friends at the national retail Federation. To coin a term to signify people getting back into their office when the internet was not so great at home so they can get high-speed connectivity and Shop but now. We're all connected right we're all connected all the time and so in fact over the course of cyberweek 61%. Of borders and close to eighty percent of traffic was on a mobile device by the way that's phone. To be specific that doesn't include your tablets. And so there is this moving out partly because of connectivity what we saw in Thanksgiving for the last couple of years is a growing. [22:56] Disproportionately growth I'll say over Thanksgiving because you kind of. Finish your meal you're done with your crazy uncle Lou and you want to sit on the couch a little bit you can press and you pull out your phone and you know shopping generally and especially over the holiday is you know totally embedded and fragmented now you often get inspired by what you see on your phone. When you start shopping what we saw this Thanksgiving actually was. There was a little bit of leveling off we feel like people were more present last year I know I didn't have Thanksgiving and the one or two times over the holiday we did get together last year was underneath our patio heater we probably one of the last people in the country to get one and our fire pit and people want to be present this year and so. It wasn't as strong what I thought was interesting is two more points I'll make is. [23:55] Saturday Sunday we're pretty strong and those are generally pretty light days but this year people are online and people were buying so. You know I'll pause there probably a lot more to talk about but certainly again you see these Peaks happening with Cyber Monday with Black Friday in particular Black Friday where I should say one more thanks I'm just thinking about it is you know obviously Black Friday digitally was really large because more stores were closed and even if they were open people still felt more comfortable buying online. Jason: [24:29] Yeah just just to sort of echo that point Walmart told me that in 2019 they sold a billion dollars worth of turkeys on Thanksgiving and this year they sold 10 billion dollars worth of turkeys. So like a twenty percent jump in in American turkey consumption so that. Rob: [24:50] That's crazy that's amazing. Jason: [24:51] Yeah so sir clearly indicating that people were excited and did get back together so I almost wondered if that was gonna put a damper on the online shopping but it seems like it really didn't. Rob: [25:03] Not across the entire cyberweek it was still again I I'll risk even say healthy but probably closer to moderate growth is what I've been talking to our customers about but again that growth. I'm really or moderate growth is because of the earlier demand which retailers that's what they wanted that's what they got they should be smiling and be happy. Scot: [25:27] Very cool so just for the record Black Friday bigger than Cyber Monday for the first time that's pretty I think it's worth saying again. Rob: [25:36] Yeah it is it's kind of interesting because you know Black Friday think about is such a physical store holiday right and. It's really smooth it out and I know I've used that word before but it's really the theme for this holiday, and I think we'll see how I think it is a sign of things to come by the way I don't think this is now an anomaly but rather. How we're going to view the holiday season moving forward finally it didn't really by the way pull as forward as I would have suspected into October we saw some blips here and they're based on. The promotional calendar but it really started in Earnest on November first. Scot: [26:16] Yeah as a pure play e-commerce guy I'm glad we kind of overtook Black Friday and so yeah the so now that now that we're through these key days does it change your forecast up down or you feel like it's kind of right in line with what you guys were expecting. Rob: [26:34] Yeah we were expecting 10 percent growth over the course of the holiday in the u.s. and 7% growth. Globally we're sticking to that right now we're about just shy of 50 percent of All Digital sales in the books for this holiday. But we still have a way to go and in fact fun fact I guess that wasn't the exact questions got you ask but I'll grow it out there is about one-third of All Digital sales happen in November and December. So yeah we expect there are still a lot of sales to be had out there and we are anticipating similar results and so we're staying Pat on our our ten percent growth year over year across the entire holiday season for digital. Scot: [27:22] Wrinkle any indications of the data so far if you mentioned kind of that first mile any indications of other than it pulling forward that it's you know that it's causing any kind of problems like increased stock outs or we've had this first wave and you're worried there won't be anything on the shelves at the back end or what do you see in there. Rob: [27:43] We do see some concern with that you know I've been cautioning anybody I've talked to so I'll say here now is if you see something you like buy it don't wait for that last big discount we can talk about discounts in a little bit if you like but you're not going to necessarily get it in the product might not even be there what retailers have done based on our data is pull back on their assortment and so what we saw is. First cyberweek in the u.s. we saw a shrinkage of 6% of product catalogs so retailers are being conservative. They're selling what they know or hope is available but there is a concern as we go into these last couple of. Weeks of the holiday as The Last Mile and shipping cut off window starts to creep up what it will look like for those replenishable items if they actually will be replenishable but we thought was super interesting as I just mentioned is retailers were really being conservative and trying to do you know going deeper in there. [28:55] Inventory rather than going broader in their assortment and that's evident by what we saw in cyberweek with a six percent decrease in the product catalog where is generally speaking for cyberweek you're seeing you know anywhere from a five to ten and some cases of fifteen percent increase in that product catalog. Scot: [29:14] Nursing and then let's flip to the other side last year we had ship again in the indications there that that the shipping infrastructure was having problems keeping up. Rob: [29:26] You know we're feeling a lot Rosier than we did last year certainly you hit it on the head with chip again and we. [29:35] We anticipate in Saab 700 million packages at risk and those in most cases were delayed that was pulled back tremendously this year retailers really moved over the course of the last 20 months from Scrappy standing up some pretty Innovative but Scrappy nonetheless solutions for Last Mile and they've really worked to scale that and to not only do it effectively but efficiently efficiently meaning don't crush their margins by trying to get the product to the consumer buy online pick up in store still seems to be the winner, this holiday so those that put it in place over the course of the pandemic are actually seeing. Some really nice benefits from it one interesting fact that the team was able to gather was for those, retailers on Black Friday that offered buy online pick up in store so orders placed with the confidence at home and being able to picked up in and around the store grew at a 50% higher rate than those that didn't so consumers think about it over the course of the pandemic really showed loyalty retailers who are able to provide health safety convenience and Trust to the denominator there is removing the friction from the shopping process and those that offer that service were really. [31:04] Able to leverage and benefit from that in the new consumer Baseline of removing the friction. Jason: [31:12] Yeah you know it's an interesting thing on the last mile. Last year Amazon passed FedEx in terms of the number amount of packages they delivered themselves right in there. Depending how you count something like 30 to 40 percent of all e-commerce the middle news this week one of the supply chain guys that he expects by the end of this year or the first quarter of next year that they'll not only will they ship more packages than FedEx they'll ship more packages than UPS so Amazon could be the large the largest non-governmental last Last Mile in the in the country by next year. Rob: [31:50] Yeah you mean it's quite amazing how large Amazon has gotten with Last Mile and I give credit to anybody who isn't last excuse me who isn't Amazon. And who is in a big box retailer who has you know some capital of fro at The Last Mile Challenge and you know those that partnered with these you know collaborative networks to be able to. [32:16] Outsource if you will the the last mile or even provide buy online pick up in store to you know Outsource The Last Mile to the consumers have really benefited and you know where we saw unfortunate gap between the large players and the neighborhood and local players they somewhat of leveling the playing field. [32:39] Will be leveraging the stores not only for a filament Center but an experiential Center as well and I know I'm shifting a little bit but it's something that comes to mind Jason Scott is you know our research showed coming into this holiday. Those retailers that leverage their store for more than just scanning and bagging will benefit in fact 60% of. Online orders will be influenced by the physical store let me say it again 60% of digital will be influenced by the store which is somewhat the opposite that for store really came at us with five ten years ago about digital orders. Influencing store orders and you know that could be whether the store is generating demand or fulfilling demand and that could be from fulfillment or store associates being social media managers or you know even Service agents whether they're in the store or they're picking up micro shifts at home and then certainly obviously pick packing and shipping and getting the products ready to either be picked up or Filled from there so I know that was a little bit of a tangent to say you know most don't have the scale of an Amazon and so you got to get really crafty and Innovative of how you're going to kind of level the playing field particularly around Last Mile. Jason: [34:07] Yeah no totally agree and it's actually if you have too much free time on your hands it's really fun to read all these retailer Q3 earnings reports because like they often embedded in the back of that they do talk about like the percentage of their sales that are fulfilled by store influence from store and that that's a standout stat for almost every retailer now is how important that store is for the digital supply chain so that's that exactly mirrors your data I want to like there's so much going on this holiday I feel like we could we could do a two-hour show which we won't do to our listeners but another interesting one is pricing promotion and inflation and how all that pays out like it was a lot of the growth from this year in your guys estimation was it. Inflation and consumers just paying more for less or or was it. Rob: [35:00] Yeah yeah we got the data and it's it's fascinating it is really it's you know it's fascinating on one hand but it's like pretty basic on the other which is a lot of the growth was driven by increase prices and so what we saw for instance over cyberweek the average selling price was up 11%. In the US and 5% globally what we also saw at the same time is that order volume was lower, and average order value was higher so the math says, that people are buying fewer items at fewer retailers because they have kind of a zero-sum game you know they have a specific budget and so if you're buying things at higher prices you're buying less of those things and you could equate the 11%. [36:00] Increase of average selling price to inflation and we're seeing that across the board meeting across the different product categories so you know. That's happening we predicted that for the second half of the Year retailers and brands. We're going to have an incremental 223 billion dollars of cost of goods sold and that's from manufacturing supply chain labor they absorbed a good amount of it but. They had to pass some on to the consumers consumers they're happy they're positive. They want to focus on buying things that they want versus just needs. [36:40] So they bought now what retailers did to the discount piece of this and why consumers are likely to lose out on discount chicken this year is discounts were the lowest levels and we've seen. Andres when I say that discount rates where some of the lowest we've seen in recent history and so the discount and the rates being lower I think it's something like eight percent. Down your view here in the u.s. is because you know retailers. Just had to hold their own right and really protect some of the margin and you know even on Cyber Monday where you see some of the biggest discounts it just wasn't happening this year. Jason: [37:28] Yeah interesting you know you talked about consumers picking fewer retailers and buying being a few items for more money I wonder to me that sounds like it's a recipe for sort of retail, I hate using this word because Steve Dennis will get all excited bifurcation that you know if consumers are buying less items than their first choice retailer is likely to win and they're you know kind of longer tail retailers are likely to lose those that are using that at all or do you think that's how it's going to play out this year. Rob: [38:02] Yeah I do just plainly you know loyalty has been redefined we don't mention it before in terms of health safety, convenience and Trust now that's the Baseline and retailers really need to focus you know what we're hearing from consumers they want to be treated special they want to E M I don't know what personalization means but when you ask them the attributes of it they want that right they want to feel like they're unique two-thirds say they want to, have a unique experience and feel like they're being treated uniquely the challenge based on Research that we just conducted is only one-third of retailers can actually harness and democratize that data and turn it into personalized promotions and prices and offers and so. Yeah there's this will give a shout out to Steve face Steve happy holidays there is this bifurcation taking place and it's you know so important especially as we go into this cooking this world for retailers to really harness their data more than they ever have it's not, a new story right we've been talking about for a while but this first part is zero party data so important because that same research showed three strikes and you're out after three bad experiences retail with a retailer or brand consumer is going to abandon and go somewhere else and not come back so yeah just I think you're onto something this and I need to really not just a choir but think about the consumers that you have those loyal shoppers. Jason: [39:31] Yeah if only there was some kind of tool set that merged I Commerce and data and it all lived like I don't know in the cloud that would be amazing. Rob: [39:39] It would be kind of amazing woman that I know I think we're in a pretty good spot. Jason: [39:43] Someone should do that. Another thing that's been interesting to me regarding the inflation is it seems like some retailers are. Passing more of the the costs on to Consumers than others and it's been funny I don't know if you followed all these all these Q3 earnings but there's retailers that are like. We pulled a lot of levers we got a lot of extra inventory in but it came in way more expensive we didn't raise our prices a lot and so our sales have been great but our profitability is down and then there have been other retailers that are like, consumers have been willing to pay more for a good so our sales are up in our profitability is up. Side note I don't I don't follow this is much but the investors like the retailers that took the prophet a lot more than the retailers that acted as a shock absorber. Rob: [40:31] Shocker yeah I think generally that equation that you just talked about not only sales but profit come back into play here retailers and of what I've seen I've gotten somewhat of a hall pass over the course of the pandemic because you know the focus on. Consumer safety. Associate safety getting the product through the supply chain and so the Retailer's took a hit there I think we're taking you know a. Refocus you know back on to profitability and you know that's why it's interesting I was hosting a Roundtable virtually just recently and one of the participants one of the executives reminded all of us is of the profitability of the box right we kind of lost sight up that'll is what I mean by that obviously the physical store. And I think we lost sight of that purposely over the course of last 20 months but. And I think we're going to have to really hunker down and really look at what that looks like especially as you know consumers have gotten used to having a lot of flexibility and choice around how they get in where they get the product. Scot: [41:44] Cool and interesting data from the categories apparel has been under a lot of pressure since the pandemic Electronics have been surging Home Improvement seems to be running non-stop it anything any changes to those kind of Trends we've seen for the last 18 months. Rob: [42:02] Yeah you know I'll look I'll give you some information and across cyberweek. Because it's most recent but I think it speaks to what's happening Scott or what has happened over the last 20 months. Um what we saw in the hottest categories across cyberweek are luxury handbags with a sixty percent year-over-year growth. Furniture at a 56 percent year over year growth. In general Footwear at a 22 percent year-over-year growth now luxury handbags in general apparel I get it. That's going off of a base that shrunk last year nobody saw my feet on any zooms right so my slippers were just fine legs are handbags. I know we weren't really going out to many restaurants in SLE need to refresh that so the growth on Lower base or. Shrinking base from last year makes sense for getting back out in the world you know we're focusing on exponential categories as consumers like entertainment and travel and being outdoors. [43:11] What really is super interesting is furniture. Furniture has been on a tear because we've all been home and whether we're redoing our outdoor patio set because that's where we're spending time outdoors I did for the holiday as I mentioned or it's my home office. You know what I can think about as my team look through the data is it's a shifting slightly of what people are buying for their home they're buying more entertainment type of products whether it's home appliances or its couches. Or the like where people are coming back into your home after a long respite and we want to spruce up our home as well so you know like I said the handbags from where I get it which is great to see Furniture you know ears. Really didn't know walls over the course of the pandemic and as we come through this holiday. Scot: [44:07] Nursing how about any interesting toys you want to highlight like I think Jason mentioned the mixy as one that was kind of called out as being a hot toy. Rob: [44:16] Jason what's the Mixie tell me more. Jason: [44:20] You are I don't I actually haven't seen any data on whether it came to fruition but the toy it was the toy the toy industry was leaning into and it's like it's like a combination of a chemistry toy with a plushie so like like it create smoke and then a plushie comes out of the smoke I think is the the gist of it the the big toy I've seen in terms of sales velocity is that the gaming platforms are selling like hotcakes. Rob: [44:51] Yeah yeah yeah that's what I was saying it's really just a sample size of one where it's like for my boys 15 and 12 they're all about whatever's digital whether that's devices or Dean's on those devices so you know shopping is gotten a little easier on one hand but we have to also be really creative as well. Jason: [45:12] Yeah I wonder we'll see how it plays out but it doesn't feel like Last Mile has had a big impact on on shopping up till now but like even if give last-mile holds up in there's no capacity problems we still have these holiday cut-offs right you know we still get to this date where we can no longer cost-effectively ship something to your home in time for the holidays and I feel like there's more digital gifts out there than ever before so you think of all the streaming services you can gift a subscription to all the content for these these gaming Platforms in these Computing platforms and I'm not super Bush for this holiday but like I think we're going to see more retailers offering enough teas and things this year so it I'm kind of curious if the back half of. December becomes the sort of digital holiday season. Rob: [46:01] Yeah we certainly saw that didn't we Jason last year in terms of the shipping cut off. Come in really early on the heels of Cyber Monday because the last mile issues and a lot of retailers really honed in on gift cards as another source of. A gift and I think you're right I think you're right in terms of you know whether it's and FTS maybe we're a little early for that but we'll see. My colleague Michelle Grant has been tracking that really closely and she's pretty bullish about the whole category as relates not only gifts but the intersection between that and loyalty programs but yeah I mean I think it's you know whether it's gift cards to restaurants or travel or the like gaming as you mentioned just I think there's something that I really think there's something to that. Jason: [46:50] Yeah well listen this has been a super exciting conversation and I always like to end it on a total Debbie Downer note so the. I'm curious if you have seen or have you guys are trying to figure out how you're going to model like any impact from the new covid variant like in my world it feels like people were definitely planning to get together and more in person events but it does seem like people are starting to second-guess those there's all the news articles are talking about what what's the correct pronunciation is it Omicron. Makan. Rob: [47:27] Sounds good to me I'll let you stick to that one I will try to because I know all. Jason: [47:31] Got you I think a Peyton Manning screaming Omaha is my. Rob: [47:34] Hahaha I like that reference nicely done yeah. That's a good question I as I mentioned earlier I only hope we can see each other in person at an arrest in January you know where. We're at Salesforce tracking just. [47:53] Now this new digital world really closely because we're not going back to the same. You know mindset as we had before as our newly assigned co-ceo put it is work isn't where you go but it's what you do and you know we're living in this digital headquarters and it's going to be hybrid I've. Attended plenty of hybrid types of executive meetings over the course of the last month or two as people start, get back on the road as it relates to retail you know I can't really speak to what's to come. But what I can say is we tracked digital sales across the last 20 months as it relates to cases and maybe it shouldn't be a surprise you know as. Non-essential. Stores closed and I hope that doesn't happen again but people want to hunker down and be home and order products online there was a direct correlation between cases and order and sales growth in fact over the course of 2020 we saw a 50% year-over-year growth. And by the way that was I'm sorry 57% to be precise and that was driven in large part by 40% growth in net new digital Shoppers so these are people would hang on a line right they go to social media they be able to browse and. [49:22] Do some research but they ultimately go in the store and buy they're also buying new categories as well and so you know as things. As we look forward we can certainly based on history see a correlation between digital which is set a whole new Baseline as I mentioned before and what that looks like as it relates to traffic orders and sales. Jason: [49:47] Yeah it is certain there is no short – of variables to impact this holiday as it feels like we've gone from playing checkers to playing 3D 3D chess a little bit with all this stuff. Rob: [50:02] Yes you're right I need to bring in my 15-year old to help me play that game because yeah I'm a couple moves behind but you know we can look at data and that's the fun part about our part of the fun part about my job as looking at the data and seeing what people have done. Jason: [50:17] I I do other and that's why we love having you on the show so much is because you bring the data in Rob that is going to be a perfect place to wrap for tonight because we have used up all our a lot of time on this special cyberweek / Hanukkah edition of the show so if you if listeners enjoyed this show we sure would appreciate it as our holiday gift if you would jump onto iTunes and give us that five-star review. Scot: [50:45] Rob we really appreciate you taking the time out of your busy schedule to join us here on the day after Cyber Monday you guys have a fancy cool new portal or I don't know what you want to HUB how do folks find that. Rob: [50:59] We do have the insights hub for the holiday and so perhaps we can in the show notes or however you do it these days share it with the crew but if you also searched Salesforce holiday insights Hub you'll get right to it so you'll see all the data that I talked about and even more across marketing as we get further into the holiday season you'll see it for service as well and so I encourage your listeners to engage through that portal and you know Scott Jason thank you so much sincerely I mean it's been a long week not a lot of sleep for the team and me but. It's been a highlight to share this with you and make this an annual tradition so happy healthy and safe holiday season. Scot: [51:46] Thanks Rob will have Jason put a link to the hub on his friend stir page. Rob: [51:52] Perfect. Jason: [51:55] I will do it I will put it in all the socials and if folks want to keep track of the gar fees that's its retail Rod right is it retail Rob Garf is that your Twitter handle. Rob: [52:07] You got it retail Rob Garth and then I'm on LinkedIn as well. Jason: [52:10] Awesome I will put links to all of the above Rob really appreciate it one of the conversations I look forward to every year and absolutely look forward to seeing you in person at the interrupt Big Show next month and until then happy commercing!