Ethnic inhabitants of Scotland
EP278 - Adobe Holiday E-Commerce Forecast with Taylor Schreiner In Episode 277 we covered some of the early overall holiday sales forecasts, and the issues likely to impact this holiday season. In this episdoe we get the very first look at Adobe 2021 Holiday Shopping Forecast. This is a deep dive on digital shopping behaviors based on Adobe Analytics, which analyzes 1 trillion visits to retail sites and over 100 million SKUs. We break it all down with Taylor Schreiner, Director of Adobe Digital Insights. Episode 278 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday. October 14th, 2021. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this episode is being recorded on Thursday October 14 2021 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-hosts Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:38] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott show listeners we are smack in the middle of October and for all of our retail listeners you know what that means it is go time for Holiday 21 way back in episode 277 last week we talked about the supply chain challenges I like to call that Supply pain and we shared the e-commerce retail forecast from Salesforce Deloitte and beIN but there was one notable missing forecast from that list and that's one of our favorites the Adobe forecast well in this episode we're going to fix that hole in the universe we're going to fill it and Adobe is releasing their holiday forecast here on the 20th which is when we'll be releasing this podcast and we are really excited to have with us today Taylor Schreiner he is the director of Adobe Digital insights and fun fact this is adobe's fifth time on the show Welcome Back Taylor. Taylor: [1:34] Thanks God do we get a free sandwich. Scot: [1:37] Sure if we were there together we would have a sandwich but we'll we'll do a virtual high five instead how about that. Jason: [1:44] Just to warn you Scott's character is like grilled into the sandwich so some people find that. Taylor: [1:49] Oh no I'll close my eyes this could thank you Scott thank you Jason it's great to be here we'd love talking to you guys and we love listening to you guys so it's a fun conversation to have. Jason: [2:03] We are thrilled to have you Taylor and I do want to Dive Right In to your methodology and then your data but before we do real briefly remind. Um the audience what your role is at at Adobe to sort of frame frame where your perspective is coming from. Taylor: [2:20] Sure so I run a group called Adobe Digital insights it's got mentioned and we are charged with, using aggregated and anonymized adopted in data to. Help the industry retail and other Industries as well understand the major trends that we see in the data that comes through Adobe analytics or adobe Commerce or any of the other. I could get it to Commerce and experience cloud services that we have. So so our job is to tell stories to make it take all that huge area did it and tell stories that help people understand their world. Jason: [2:59] That's awesome and so there's a bunch of different components of the the Adobe marketing cloud in the do Adobe Commerce Cloud but. Sort of Marque things Adobe analytics which a long time ago too many of us that are super old was Adobe was omniture, is a is a key component of the analytics suite and Magento is a key component of the marketing cloud and so you you get to see, an awful lot of, Commerce transactions across the web via those two products and the rest of the the Adobe stack and you get to use that anonymized data to sort of formulate this holiday forecasting this case is do I have that right. Taylor: [3:41] Absolutely and I really appreciate you calling me super old. Jason: [3:44] I didn't say you called it I'm not sure I said I. Taylor: [3:47] I remember I remember the under two days I do but yes. Jason: [3:50] I'm pretty sure there's like the URL for the analytics dashboard still says all mature. Taylor: [3:54] I think sometimes it does yeah now it's absolutely right face. Jason: [3:58] And then one important distinction some of the. Holiday forecast that Scott mentioned in the intro are actually overall retail forecast and one of the things that that is unique your forecast is slightly more focused you're focused on digital Commerce do I have that right. Taylor: [4:16] That's right we have we focused exclusively on digital Commerce and we're looking what makes us unique is that we are looking across, over a trillion interactions with retailers across thousands of retailers across over a hundred million skus with a boatload of AI behind that sort of categorizing and understanding it but you know the core of it I think for your listeners is weird. The where the group is actually looking at what people are buying in what quantity and what they're actually paying for it. It's ridiculous prices we're not doing surveys were actually looking at the the behaviors that we can observe a huge scale and using that to do both the reporting in this case are forecasting of the holiday season. Jason: [4:56] Yeah and that's super exciting to me because that I frequently rail against the value of stated preference surveys in our industry and and what we're talking about today is observed preferences lies actual data and consumer behavior that you're watching. Taylor: [5:11] Absolutely and it's gonna be fascinating. Jason: [5:13] Yeah so just two other minor precursors and we'll jump in because there is so much variability out there when you say holiday what date range are you talking about. Taylor: [5:22] Good point right now we're talking about the first of November till the end of the year although arguably make it into it you know some of the stuff is starting to creep into October 2 but when we talk about numbers were talking about November 1 to December 31. Jason: [5:34] Perfect we'll come back to that but yeah I think I think the the shoulders of that season are going to be more interesting than ever and then when you say, retail. Like approximately like what is in retail to you I could go US Department of Commerce restaurants and gas stations are in there like do you guys have a standard definition of retail just to kind of frame what we're talking about. Taylor: [5:56] We generally look at a thing where the transaction the Fulfillment are fully executed online we exclude from this things like travel which is a different industry or anything where it's simply a payment system online but you know any Commerce where you're doing your shopping, your your payment and your fulfillment online generally falls into into our space so not restaurants are delivery services but but the goods that you would normally associate with with retail shopping outside of that. Jason: [6:27] Awesome and so digital grocery than would be in there. Taylor: [6:29] Yes he's a digital grocery appliances apparel all that kind of thing. Jason: [6:34] Perfect okay well I think that's enough Preamble and we've done enough teasing what's what's the Top Line are we all going to get our bonuses this year or is it going to be bleak. Taylor: [6:43] It's your our data showing a good year or days showing a year where the story is really consumers want to shop consumers wanted to go buy online but it's going to be really different year for retailers and for consumers because of the supply pain that Scott was referring to earlier they're going to see a lot more out of stock they're going to see a lot, you know a lot higher prices frankly and that's I think it'll hold us back from having a incredible year. Now just keep in mind I'm talking about a 207 billion dollar, season which you know we don't have a great aggregate retail forecast that we based off right now but that's roughly $1 and for of all of all retailgeek. As far as we can see maybe a little more than that. And it's 10 percent up from last year which you know in the long run of historical growth rates is a little bit low but we're getting off of a 33% jump the year before so if you kind of look all the way back to 2019 we're still. Accelerated from where you would have expected us to be if you've been projecting from a prepaid nemec stance so it kind of depends on where you're looking at it from. But however you look at it it's going to be a big year. Jason: [7:58] Got it so in my mind I sort of think of it traditionally year of e-commerce growth for Holiday being kind of like pre-pandemic. We were kind of running in this like 10 to 15% a year sort of range, um and all of retail would be growing at like four percent a year so then last year the pandemic forces everyone online we have this monster year 33 percent and then this year you're looking for you're looking at 10% on top of last year's monster year. Taylor: [8:27] That's right that's right still going to grow it's still good grow significantly it's still good grow you know maybe as you stay at the kind of lower bound of what we used to see but it's a real real growth rate now they'll be some differences in what grows and how it grows you can get into that but it's going to be a good year. Jason: [8:44] And one of the thing that's always funny to me is I guarantee you when the the sort of superficial press get ahold of your forecast they're all going to write the story about how e-commerce has is slowing way down. Taylor: [8:58] Right yeah nobody wants to talk about two year growth rate or you know try and digest everything that's happened over over the course of the pandemic and fine and but I know, when you step back even a little bit e-commerce has transformed over the past 20 24 months I think the bigger story is people are shopping for their groceries people are shopping for their Furniture you know folks out here in Berkeley or buying compost online, the way that people engage with e-commerce has radically transformed over the course of the pandemic and that's here to stay and that's this the basis of that growth and that you know that's the part that really has accelerated over the course of cobit so if you want to look at a particular growth rate and say it's slowing down, fair enough, but I don't think for instance you know I want to make predictions in 223 but I don't think this 10 percent growth rate in 22 is telling you that 23 is going to be slow I think it's more of a balancing act between. 2020 and 2021. Jason: [9:58] And again like this still means e-commerce is almost certainly growing faster than brick and mortar. Filming the whole industry is still growing in a very disruptive year I do want to like maybe double-click on covid just for a second because this was the big open question when we were all living through, the first half of the pandemic was sure. Everybody's turning to e-commerce people don't want to go to the stores there's health and safety issues they're all they're all these open things so not surprising that it drove more people online a big question at that time was. Is this just an acceleration of a trend and this is going to be the new normal or will those people all be desperate to go back to the store and resume and back to the mall and kind of resume their pre-pandemic. Shopping behaviors and. My read of your data says no no we're locking in all those changes that happened last year and then we're we're growing at a pretty healthy clip from there is that a fair way to be thinking about it or am I wrong headed as got usually points out. Taylor: [11:02] No in this particular case you happen to be right the that's absolutely true if you look at the aggregate growth I think it tells exactly that story that it, it is we're banking all the gains that you got through covid and there were growing on top of that, I think another stat I think really tells the story is our buy online pick up curbside. Data which you know followed that trajectory you talked about Jason, getting up there as we got into the pandemic and retailers adjusted we have a we have a set of retailers we look at the median portion of their online purchase online orders that are fulfilled curbside and that ramped right up last year with all of its fulfillment challenges ranked right up right before Christmas you about 25% we thought that's a that's a high peak right we got into April of this year and it gone right back up to 25% people are still going and pick you up curbside that's a habit that they're in their shopping online and fulfilling next to the store and we expect that to hit a whole new record frankly as we go into this year so it's a it's a habit that people have gotten into and they're not letting go of. Jason: [12:10] Wow and if this is from memory but I want to say last year you guys said that well well e-commerce grew at 33% the dopest segments are the curbside pickup segment grew way faster than that it was like a hundred and ninety-five percent. Taylor: [12:25] Yeah I don't have enough time I have like it's something like that it was it was significant and this year's going to be. Going to be crazy and you know anecdotally you know there are a number of stores where I think hey I really like this I'm not going to set foot in number of those I'll shop with them but I'm against it putting them again for a while if I don't have to this is great for me. Jason: [12:47] Yeah you know it's maybe only partly analogous but I talked to a lot of Quick Serve restaurants. And you know they have the same thing right they sold they sold meals but it was all off Prem consumption and you know the restaurants that have the biggest intrinsic Advantage were ones with drug through. And I've talked to an awful lot of restaurant tours that are like if I could wave a magic wand and make my dining room go away and have a more robust drive through. I would do it because that's the customer that that appears to be the long-term customer preference. Taylor: [13:19] Yeah I think and I think a lot of retailers who have got good real estate or obviously having to rethink how much of this is a you know distribution center and how much of this is a shopping experience and you know it's gonna be different than it was two years ago for sure. Jason: [13:34] And then I guess the one other sort of observational thing I've noted is. Yeah so you know our store is going to get people to walk back in the store to pick up those digital orders are they going to continue to pick them up at curbside and you know one who knows but one clue. Um is pre-pandemic Walmart had these in storage lockers these robotic lockers this cool Tower and all their stores. Um and they d installed all of those towers and they're now doing a national remodel with a much more robust, curbside picking lot parking lot right so it seems very clear and Walmart's case that they're saying hey the. You know this isn't just a reaction of the pandemic this is a you know a permanent infrastructure change we're making two. To make to eliminate in-store pickup and make curbside pickup more. Taylor: [14:24] I think that's right I think that is likely the trend I think you know it there's a lot. A lot of the hassle of of shopping that you're removing with shopping online and pick you up at the store is, is that last not mile I mean the last you know a hundred feet hundred yards of going in there and getting in the inline or whatever if you can just sit with your app and check your email with some well so they put stuff in the trunk that's a lot of a lot of value add there so I would expect that to be continue to be the trend. Scot: [14:52] Bullets as I introduced I'm kind of keenly aware or following the supply chain stuff and I noticed in the front of your presentation one of the bullets is unprecedented out of stock levels if you guys can you share like you know what you think that's going to be and is there any way to put a number on that like you're numb your forecast would have been you know twice as big if it wasn't for this or you just guys are just flagging it as this adds risk to the holiday. Taylor: [15:21] It's a fair question something we think a lot about I mean it's really hard to characterize and we probably just need more more. Time with the with the day I met don't make time to think about it but time series data to really understand how out of stock. Alters people shopping behaviors whether they abandon or whether they take some to which they redirect themselves. I will tell you is that you're going into if you look at sort of 2019 isn't as the normal it was growing when people were getting more out of stock items more of stock hits over time maybe you know creeping up toward fifty or a hundred percent more even over the course of the year and the pandemic hits and people are five times more likely basically four and a half to five times more likely to get an out of stock message and that's today that's not necessarily going to Holiday where things could get more challenging. So that could go up where we see it often isn't most often is in apparel so again you know I think it's going to affect different categories differently out of socks in the Peril can be if you're looking for a particular stereo pair of sneakers or particular you know this is the 20th so what made you I was buying for my wife but something you know a vest or something right that is her birthday is on the 23rd so I want to tell her what's what I was shopping for, anyway the you know you might not get that. Scot: [16:46] Is your wife a listener. Taylor: [16:48] I really doubt it. But yeah you might get redirected to something else whereas in electronics for instance we see you know a lot of chips shortages but. But price is a bigger factor in some of that marketing and decision making and so you're able to see apparel prices creep up a little bit but a lot about a stock you see for instance Electronics prices creep up a lot from what we would have expected but that that has reduced the out-of-stock challenges that they faced. Scot: [17:24] So so it's hard to put a quantity quantify on at this point maybe you think after the holiday you guys will be able to. Taylor: [17:31] I think it'll be easy yeah I mean you know we have a clear estimate of what things might have looked like before I think after the holiday talk to us in January we can we will have a better sense of how this played out this holiday season one of the challenges that I think is out there is it's not clear yet how much out of stock consumers are really going to see this season, based on you know when retailers are running promotions how they're stocking us those promotions how they're managing their their portfolio of goods so. We'll have to see but it's something that yeah had Beyond in January we'll talk about. Scot: [18:09] Okay it's going to be more of a chess game because the retailer they have the only information about what they have and what they can expect and then matching that to the promotional calendar this year is going to be interesting and playing a little game of chicken with the consumer to because consumers should be reading about this a lot so it's going to be fascinating to watch watch how that plays out. Taylor: [18:29] Yeah I've been recommending to Consumers frankly to make two lists, say look you got one list of things where I know I want this for the holidays and you got to buy it early because you might worry about your your out-of-stock situation and then another set of goods were you think hey you know if this doesn't come through or if I don't get specifically the version of this that I want yeah if I don't get this TV but I get a different brand TV I'm okay and then those things you can really shop for on the big major sailed is but it's you know. It's going to be it's a lot of a lot of work for the retailers to figure out how this game is going to play out and frankly it's gonna be a lot of work for consumers to figure out how they're going to address it. Jason: [19:10] I guess one of the ways I think about this it's important to remember that out of stock does not automatically mean wah sales like a lot of times there's a. Customers first choice but the they'll make on the Fly substitutions are switches when they discover some things out of stock so we still capture that. That's a land it seems like all like you know all the people forecasting retail sales for this holiday are pretty robust numbers you're coming in with a pretty robust number, everyone saying we're not going to find, consumers first choice of goods so the sort of logical conclusion here is the consumers in a spending mood when I go to the store to get baby grow goo for Scott for Christmas and it's out. Um Scott's going to have to settle for some cool dune toy that I find. Taylor: [19:58] Hey didn't really cool the The Arc right and I think maybe the way to answer Scott's question directly is you know. In the face of this rapidly increasing out of stock, we're seeing at least you know up to the 5x of what we saw in 2018 we have still seen really impressive growth this year especially we're 2019 so so far whatever headwind it is is not. Super significant now I think you know the experiment that will be able to look at is if this starts to spike as we go into the holiday season if retailers have a hard time matching their inventory with with consumer demand then that might have a bigger impact in the they'll be saying we can look at more closely. Jason: [20:42] So you alluded to some of the categories and I have a feeling that. Um that both out of stocks and the impact of out of stocks could play out very differently in different categories right like if someone goes to the grocery store and we're out there out of your preferred brand of toilet paper. You're probably going to switch to another toilet paper but if there's a particular luxury fashion item or a particular toy that little Johnny is asking for for Christmas. Um you might be more inclined to hunt her harder for that product or defer that purchase and get it later or something like that right is does that make sense. Taylor: [21:16] Absolutely yeah and you know grocery out of stocks are not not at all infrequent with your particular Goods at a particular moment and then apparel is something I don't know about the rest of you but I've gotten. Pretty acclimated to the notion that I'm not necessarily going to be able to find the size and the color I'm looking for on the first try that it's quite quite possible I have to hunt around but you know there's a lot there a lot of style choices that go into that whereas I think you know if you're looking for a you know something specific as you say you know for particular. Particular toy your gift you might have to hunt them different retailers to go find it but you might be willing to do that exactly well. Jason: [21:58] So when you roll it out all that up are there any categories in your mind and end up being clear winners or losers for holiday. Taylor: [22:06] Well you know I think the it's it's a good question the the. [22:17] Clearly where we've seen growth is where we've seen the clearest growth in the holiday and in e-commerce in general has been in the things that are not holiday specifics of groceries apparel those kinds of things have really grown and we continue to see them grow so in some sense they are the Commerce winners because they've really absorbed the, I think what's going to be very successful early on are going to be these deals that get spread out around electronics and other gifts in an apparel we expect to see those went out very well I've got my eye though on non physical Goods things like downloadable games and things like that that happen the mic pop up toward the Christmas season is people who are looking to deliver something that is great experience especially for kids that isn't going to be constrained by shipping challenges and then. [23:18] I don't know where to put my bets this year because I've got my eye both on the demand that I see in a lot of things like gaming consoles that are looking great but also on you know there's a big question mark over over Supply challenges and how that will play out for them so I would be cautious in spread my bets but but electron you know the traditional gift areas are going to do really well and apparel seems to be continuing to take off very strongly in what we've seen so far. Jason: [23:48] So you the non-physical thing is super interesting ordinarily and holiday like as you get closer to the end of the year and you kind of hit shipping cut-offs and last year we talked about a lot about ship again I didn't, and you know bottleneck sit ups and FedEx and all of that you know retailers pivot to trying to sell. Intangible products pretty hard right and most notably gift cards so I imagine that with the the inventory situations this year that that's going to be more prominent than ever that you know if you can't find the, the toy you really want you know it might be an IOU you're getting, it holiday in the hopes of getting it in January or February but there is a new kind of intangible that kind of didn't exist last year and is having a little bit of moment and I have a feeling Scott's way more into it than I am but why. Does all do all of these out of stocks kind of play into the the the. In Ft kind of hate this year do you think that we could start to see some of them on the holiday wish list. Taylor: [24:52] I think I think in a few still have a ways to bleed into you know consumer experiences and consumer expectations that I see a lot of reading and not a lot of a lot of buying but if people can figure out how if retailers can figure out how to make. You're kind of cross that Chasm and figure out how to make it a real consumer experience and yeah I think there's a lot of opportunity there for that and you know and speaking of things that are not necessarily tangible and expire or unique you know we don't forecast travel into our into our data but we do look at travel and right now you know prices for. Plane tickets are about 13 percent less than they were on average in 2019 so you know depending on how. Vaccinations and mask mandates and travel restrictions all play out there may be a push if knock wood covid gets better for more experiential, experience driven options for people to give as gifts to. Scot: [25:49] One of the things that I've been really intrigued by and this is because some of the companies have gone public but this buy now pay later and I saw you called it out and I've seen a lot of the Wall Street analyst as a for my generation I look at it I'm kind of like, you know why don't I just put that on the credit card what's interesting is I've seen this whole generational thing where Millennials and gen Z years they're looking at it as they associate the credit around the item they don't like kind of having open credit and they want it to be around a specific item what what are you guys seeing as it relates to the be npl. Taylor: [26:25] We love new acronyms right be in PL no I have exactly the same experience you just got where I think exactly what you do this but we had two sources on this one is we looked at the actual data that we see flowing through our systems and we saw skyrocketing last year of buy now pay later Behavior we saw about 44 percent growth over the course of the year, weeks that slowed a little bit in percentage terms as we went through this year but you know as we get back into the holiday season I have every reason to expect that to re-accelerate, and you saw quite the distribution two of you know sources of this is some retailers got into this business a lot of financial institutions got certain play in this area so there's a lot more more options we saw those we saw the minimums for buy now pay later come down from those institutions and simultaneously we actually saw consumers spend more or put put bigger purchases on buy now pay later, and when we surveyed about it we, we saw what you were alluding to Scott this is a generational difference in the way that people manage and even think about what credit really is and was striking to me is that the top, category that folks told us that they were interested in using buy now pay later for was was clothing that they were making those kind of purchases and and Spring Meadow over time because they were, lumpy in their year and then they were spreading it out across their income without affecting their credit. [27:52] Electronics was obviously on that that set to you going to buy your television as televisions get bigger and more expensive or cheaper but bigger but what was the. [28:02] Third category that I thought was fascinating was groceries. And not again we dug under that that wasn't just people it wasn't generally people saying look I've got a week's worth of groceries and I spread the payments out over four weeks that's hard to make sense of but but more you know I'm throwing a party or having an event and I have a spike in my grocery budget no one at this I want to smooth it so it is a and then they were everyone was managing it sort of separately from this notion of having a lump of credit card debt they had a managed versus a purchase they had to think out and pay off those are two really different categories so it is it's a really different way of thinking about credit that's manifesting in buy now pay later and it seems to continue to be growing at a significant rate. Scot: [28:49] Yeah do you think. The pitch that a lot of these so that the two big companies are there's three there's a firm karna and after by and I'm sure there's more egg even like shopify's coming out with their own and what not, their pitch to retailers is it bumps up your cart size right do you think, is this going to be a factor this holiday in our is it going to bump up the ASP you think there are still too small to be a meaningful consideration. Taylor: [29:17] You know when we when you average across the enormous event that is the holiday season I don't think we're going to see average order value is our average basket, values go up significantly more noticeably are or more to the point me off trend of what we've seen in the past that said, you know I think. If these retailers are thinking about their customer base has more granularly and they're thinking well I've got a group of folks who I can actually juice where I can do sup there their basket sizes and their purchases by offering that I think that probably is true and, you know as with these kind of generational shifts it may make a difference in the longer term as you change consumer buying habits it may open up a door for that generation is incomes increase and time goes by so I think probably more of a long-term play when it comes to aggregate average order values but for specific audiences for specific customer bases I think it did make a difference. Jason: [30:18] Yeah it's going to be interesting you know there's a payment method that historically has been really popular holiday that you know. Rich people that listen to e-commerce podcast don't tend to think about but it's layaway. And I like one of the interesting Trends you know Walmart which does a very robust delay way business retired their layaway this year in favor of a buy now pay later service. Taylor: [30:44] Yeah I remember the I remember the Layla way shelves. Toys R Us when I was a kid and just sitting them seeing all these items sit there waiting for people to pay for them but if you can get the same effect. And both for the consumer on their credit and for the retailer in terms of getting paid then it's certainly more enticing for the customer to actually get the item rather than wait for it. Jason: [31:10] I know for sure I do like to sad things there was kind of a fun tradition because of away away some very kind people would often go into a retail store. And pay everyone's layaway. And it was kind of this like secret Santa thing and you know it would happen every year there would be lots of these cool stories so I worry we're going to miss out on that which you know probably isn't. Isn't hugely meaningful but it said to me but the other thing that worries me a little bit about holiday I do think like based on your growth forecast like this is going to be a bunch of consumers first experience with these buy now pay later services, and I would still say there's a lot of consumer confusion because like I look at the landscape of these services. And the spectrum is very broad there are you know some kind of thinly veiled payday loan operators that are you know charging like huge interest and late fees and all these things on one end and then there's there's some like. Really generous programs that are very popular in here that don't charge interest in don't have late fees and you know is sort of a. Very low cost and so it. I'm not sure consumers are going to be Savvy enough to differentiate all of those for this holiday I know Target in particular is offering two different buy now pay later options and. Consumers are going to have to learn how to shop for those vendors now. Taylor: [32:35] I think that's absolutely right Jason it's very hard you know it's sort of an unstructured product that can have a lot of different attributes and it's not like a credit card where you we serve reduced it to something like credit limit and interest rate right with some with some bells and whistles and it's also not, it's not even something that consumers know how to frame necessarily like I certainly didn't when I got into the space what is this what are these payments mean what is the penalty if I miss the payment you know what are my other options how are we going to communicate how you get paid what information do you need has if at my credit score it's a lot to think about and it's going to you know thinking has a lot of costs especially when consumers are shopping this quickly so you know I think we'll have a reckoning Reckoning but a moment to pause and. Reflect on how this all evolved we get to the holiday season it will see some things shake out I would imagine. Jason: [33:31] Next well let's pivot to something near and dear to my heart the we alluded to up top the shape of holiday so there's two. Parts of this that are super interesting to me, ordinarily when we talk about holiday we're laser focused on these five days at the end of November the turkey fiber that I think you guys caught the Cyber five. Taylor: [33:53] Yeah they're my wake up at 3 a.m. 5 so I have I hold them in a different regard but they are. You know the story that you know when we would talk to you guys before for the pandemic would always be you know hey this the the season is growing but these big days are growing faster retailers are concentrated you're competing and concentrating their deals on those days and we're seeing retail consumers follow suit and they're expecting those deals on those days that really flipped around last year we had a massive growth last year about 30 odd percent 33 percent for the season. [34:27] But the individual days were growing in the low 20s there are growing about 10% slower then the season as a whole and we expect that again this year we expect the season to grow at about 10% expect the big days to grow about five-ish percent. To be clear they're going to break records I mean we're going to have an 11 plus billion dollar a day on Cyber Monday we're gonna you know Black Friday is going to going to inch up close to 10 billion Thanksgiving is going to be you know over five it'll, level that we used to call Young used to be Black Friday of numbers it's going to be massive but both because, retailers are spreading out the deals for supply and fulfillment reasons and because consumers have really shifted what it mean what e-commerce means in other words they've established sort of water level of shopping for things that are not holiday and promotionally driven, those percentages are harder to move than they used to be so yeah it's going to be they're going to be big days they're gonna be huge that last hour before the end of Cyber Monday we're going to see $12,000,000 move through the system in a minute so, every minute so it's going to be big but it's going to be a different pattern especially the thing from the Retailer's perspective than we've seen in the past. Jason: [35:40] Interesting and do you have a feel for like how much it like I think you hit on the 2 reasons for it like one is the lot of large numbers there already huge. Huge numbers and and you know frankly in some cases quite you just can't squeeze more Goods through the. The funnels on those days and then the other one is changing consumer patterns and and just you know more General e-commerce consumption on every other day of the month and all those other things like it, I'm assuming it's a blend of both of those but but is is this year more prominent that people are going to be holiday shopping on other days or you think we've just. Taylor: [36:18] Yeah it's hard it's a hard call I think what's unusual about this year's really the retailer side I mean you could imagine a world where with fewer Supply constraints where retailers are more willing to put big sales on those big days and compete for eyeballs and four dollars so maybe a maybe there's a new normal where that changes but what I don't think is changing is that consumers are now permanently going to be in a state where Ecommerce is more and more available to them where you know be their home. Certainly their phone is is increasingly an easy place to go shopping and so all this concentration on these days is going to make less and less sense to them in terms of shopping behaviors if you go back out you know the origin of these days is really about sitting outside a big box and and can't be out and trying to get deals because you had to go in person but if you don't, if you if you if it's less and less the case that you actually have to go get things then it becomes easier and easier to spread out your purchases over time and if you're always shopping online you're not, you know just sort of the complete opposite of what you know going going to the office for Cyber Monday to go shopping which is what some of us used to do then you know you're much more open to these deals and opportunities that that retailers can offer you throughout the season so that part's not going away. Jason: [37:40] That's a great point so so then let's let's zoom out a little bit you guys are counting holiday is November 1 through December 31st a lot of retailers would, include January in there, holiday season again a lot of you know gift cards and returns and people you know come in with that return and they buy more stuff so January normally is a good month, and then this year the deals. Started in October right like Amazon Started Black Friday deals on October 4th time to get started on October 10th I think. Sort of boosted because of the supply chain concerns retailers are fighting really hard to start holiday shopping in October, and because all the stuff we really want is stuck on a boat off the coast of Long Beach we might not get it until January or February so with all of that supply chain squishiness. Like is there like what you know. Taylor: [38:39] What do we see. Jason: [38:40] Holiday in November and December but is it even a like the rate of growth is even bigger if you were to kind of you know redefine holiday as a October through February. Taylor: [38:51] Yeah I mean the way that shows up in our data is that we see a we so far I've seen a very strong October, we've seen very strong October in terms of overall e-commerce growth not not on par with you know the big holiday months but it's you know we're looking at you know roughly that ten percent year-over-year a little bit more for October so it's a good sign. [39:17] The what we're also seeing though is we're keeping a close eye on prices and as I said we're see we see. Data at the transaction level and it gives us a particularly unique view into into prices and we're going into your September are digital price index which is the of the basket of goods that we see purchased online through retail was up 3.3% over last year less than the CPI was up last month but still really significantly and for context up until the pandemic we had never seen digital inflation it always be always in prices going down on part about 5% order of about five percent so people are going into this season with higher prices there will be some discounts but we in October but I don't think they're going to make a dent in that inflation yet. And frankly from what we've seen historically over the other holidays of this year we expect to go in with higher prices for goods in general and we expect discounts to be, significant but a little bit shallower than they were at their last year their deepest point so consumers may be paying significantly more, this year on a Black Friday for a particular item than they were they would have been last year on that same date when you add all that up. Scot: [40:35] Nursing the so I know we're up against time so a little lightning around here it wouldn't be a Jason and Scot show if we didn't talk about Amazon any any tea leaves on Amazon. Taylor: [40:47] So we are we assiduously avoid commenting on particular retailers for a number of reasons but everybody's going to have a big year I would imagine this year. Scot: [40:56] My theory is if the supply chain matters Amazon Amazon Walmart and maybe Target are so dialed in on that but it was some a bit of an advantage and could hurt the small guy this year but we'll see how that plays out. Taylor: [41:11] What do you think the large versus small is a good good framing of that, you know bigger retailers in and out of stock in a world without of stocks have more options to to offer and complete a sale and then small retailers who may see their carts more likely to be abandoned I think that's a significant factor. Jason: [41:31] Okay so then the next lightning one is you talked a little bit about inflation you talked a little bit about like discounting not having to be quite as deep. How does that all washout in terms of profitability I do do retailers make more money on fewer sales this year or does do all these supply chain costs eat it up and, and it's you know thin margins. Taylor: [41:51] Yeah well so I think margin management is going to be a whole different game and retailers of already had to think a lot about that this year that you know the top line is going to be bigger per item so you're going to get more Revenue but I don't see that really being driven by some kind of margin maximization Behavior it seems to be largely driven by increasing increasing costs of goods and so you know I don't see a real Gap step open it up between increasing costs and and increasing Revenue to create a giant chunk of margin there. Scot: [42:28] How about anything on device Trends any news kind of done to be a bit of an old story that you know the smartphone is overtaking the desktop. Taylor: [42:37] There is a little bit of news it's kind of fascinating so we that's that's it if you looked at the share of Revenue that was doing through smartphones from 2014 till even into the pandemic you could have basically drawn a straight line I mean it was a it was a sort of, Early College regression experiment that we've been super easy for First Years to do that's changed a little bit smartphones are still gaining cheer don't get me wrong they're still growing faster than desktop in terms of the revenue is coming through them. Ever so slightly more slowly than than they used to and it may be an indicator that, in America at least we may be headed toward an equilibrium to looks more like a sort of 50/50 World between desktop and phones which is obviously really different than some other parts of the world where that it may be 80/20 or 90/10. [43:33] Right yeah I got two expense that so I can you know make it part of our part of our. Jason: [43:38] If we get our new app tops in time then we're all shopping on our laptops otherwise we're all shopping on our floor. Taylor: [43:42] Exactly. Jason: [43:45] But it wasn't a or we could talk all day I know you're in super high demand this this time of year and and you know quite frankly not in demand at all the rest of the year so I'm sure we'll talk again when. When you're less popular, but this was awesome we really appreciate your time as always if folks want to continue the conversation or have questions you can hit us up on, on the Twitter or the Facebook page, and as always if you got value out of this show we sure would appreciate it if you'd go on to iTunes and give us that five star Christmas review. Taylor: [44:19] That's what I'm going to do Jason. Scot: [44:21] Awesome we push it if that's aren't your gift to us and it's digital so we don't have to worry about Supply pain if I think in past years you guys have set up kind of a cool holiday news Hub is that something you're going to do this year and we're world where will we find them. Taylor: [44:37] It will be there I need to get you the URL we can put the URL in a link to this if you guys are watching this online I will make sure you guys have it before we got there but yes there will it'll be there. Scot: [44:47] All right we really appreciate the time. Taylor: [44:50] Right thank you guys I really appreciate Scott real patient appreciate Jason happy to do this anytime. Jason: [44:56] We appreciate you Taylor and until next time happy commercing!
We chat with R. Scot Miller, author of "Gospel of the Absurd", a theological primer concerned with messianic and feminist care-ethics, about outreach and the overlaps of Quakerism and Anarchy. Why does modern religion fail our communities, and how can it be used as a tool to empower community in the future? Support this podcast by becoming a Patron at: https://www.patreon.com/PoorProlesAlmanac
Scot Lenoir, Chairman at Evolve Bank and Trust, talks with host Dan Marks about their partnerships in the FinTech and Crypto space and how it drives growth! The conversation includes: How Scot started Evolve Scot's love for sports and music Evolve's role in in FinTech and Crypto How Scot thinks about the current banking and financial services space How Evolve embraces innovation and regulation at the same time How FinTech partnerships benefit end consumers How Evolve leverages data and analytics to serve clients Scot's key takeaways around serving the FinTech and Crypto space
Laurence Holmes opened his show by taking calls from listeners as everyone got prepared for Game 4 of the American League Division Series between the White Sox and Astros on Tuesday afternoon. Later, Scot Gregor of the Daily Herald joined the show live from Guaranteed Rate Field to set the scene for the White Sox-Astros matchup. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Welcome to Episode 148 of the Worship Leader Probs Podcast! For anyone who is part of, leads, or works alongside a tech & production team at church, this episode is for you! Get ready to dive in as Brian and Scot share their tremendous conversation with Todd Elliott, Found of FILO. As you hear about Todd's ministry, journey, and heart for equipping and encouraging church tech leaders, you are sure to be supported and empowered in your own ministry. We are grateful for this conversation as Todd shares so many great insights and encouragements for us to apply directly to our worship & tech teams! Check it out - and like, comment, subscribe, and share with a friend! Learn more and stay connected with >>> Worship Leader Probs (instagram.com/worshipleaderprobs) // Brian Tabor (instagram.com/briantabor) // Scot Longyear (instagram.com/scotlongyear) // Todd Elliott (instagram.com/_toddelliott) // FILO (instagram.com/filocommunity) Special thank you to our friends at Maven Media Productions for editing the podcast [Follow @mavenmediaproductions and visit www.mavenmediaproductions.com], and our great friend Scott Hoke for the voiceover intro [Visit www.scotthokevoice.com].
Get thee a Scotsman like Graeme Montgomery!Forced into a marriage by his king, Graeme thinks that he is marrying a woman who will never be his true wife. He can't, in good conscious, consummate the marriage with Eveline Armstrong who is rumored to be touched in the head and childlike. What Graeme - and her entire family don't know - is that Eveline isn't daft at all, she just deaf, but played the fool in order to escape a previous arranged marriage to an evil man. When Eveline lays eyes on Graeme and feels the resonance of his voice, she is immediately hopeful that this man could make a good husband. He treats her with respect despite her rumored disability. Will Eveline open up to Graeme and tell him all of her secrets?WHERE TO FIND US:► Email: email@example.com ► Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/swreadrom► Goodreads: https://www.goodreads.com/swreadrom► Instagram: http://www.instagram.com/swreadrom► Twitter: https://twitter.com/swreadrom► FB Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/swreadrom.theswoonzone/► Juliette's Books: https://www.juliettecross.com/ ► Etsy Store: https://www.etsy.com/shop/swreadrom/► Discord: https://discord.gg/ptJr3yvFhW► Podcast: http://www.buzzsprout.com/230454Support the show (https://www.patreon.com/swreadrom)
This month we are talking to Scott and Stephanie who are the parents to the always smiling, music loving 5 year old Gabriel.Gabriel has been diagnosed with cerebral palsy and has a number of challenges and therapies that come with that diagnosis. Stephanie and Scot are going to fill us in on all of that. But what they also talk about is how Gabriel initially came into their lives and how the dynamic of their family is forever changed by this incredible little boy's journey through foster placement and how that has lead to including another very important family member, Gabriels foster sister. There are many levels of inclusion layered throughout this entire conversation and we are excited to share that with you.Connect with Stephanie and Scotthttps://www.facebook.com/stephanie.santomangohttps://www.instagram.com/gabriels_gains/Connect with Go Shout Love:https://goshout.lovehttps://www.instagram.com/goshoutlove/https://www.facebook.com/goshoutlove/
In this episode, Physical Therapist and Educator, F Scot Feil, talks about understanding and eliminating student loan debt. Today, F Scot talks about the different kinds of student loans, his different revenue streams, and the value of having a diverse set of skills. How does the debt-to-income ratio affect student loans? Hear about eliminating student loans, managing multiple revenue streams, and get F Scot's most important piece of advice for students with debt, all on today's episode of The Healthy, Wealthy & Smart Podcast. Key Takeaways “The debt-to-income ratio is the amount of student loan debt you have over your current income.” “The best way to learn about this stuff, and what's right for you, is to talk to a certified financial planner that knows about student loans.” “The biggest thing to try to do, if possible, is not to privatise your loans. Try to keep as many of your loans federal as possible.” “You make your own luck. You have to work hard, and you have to network and leverage with the right people at the right times about the right things, and then you'll start to see those opportunities open up.” “The one key takeaway that I've had with all these revenue streams is you've got to do one at a time, and you've got to get it flowing, and then you can step on to the next stream of revenue.” “The money is nice, but the time-freedom is really what you're looking for.” “You don't have to work as hard, you can scale back, charge what you're worth, and make a lot more money in a lot less time.” “Your career just has to be the tip of your iceberg.” “There's a whole lot more out there than just going to an outpatient clinic every day and seeing your patients.” “Don't worry as much. Just leverage the heck out of your career and your degrees. Use them to do what you want to do and what you enjoy doing.” More about F. Scot Feil Dr F Scott Feil is a husband, a father, a physical therapist, a professor, and, most recently, an amazon best-selling author. F Scott is also a business coach and mentor, despite starting his journey as an English major before landing as a Physical Therapist. He is one of three co-hosts of the Healthcare Education Transformation Podcast, which aims at breaking down the silos between healthcare professions and trying to find best practices in teaching and learning throughout healthcare academia. His goal is to help at least 222 professors (one from every PT School at the time of publication of his book) and clinicians pay off their student loans quicker by using multiple revenue streams. If he helps some others with terminal degrees, or other healthcare clinicians, along the way, then it's a bonus! Suggested Keywords Student Loans, Student Debt, Financial Planning, Education, Skills, Income, Revenue, Profit, Opportunities, Physiotherapy, Healthy, Wealthy, Smart Resources: FREE PT Educator's Revenue Idea Generator Professors Of Profit Facebook Group PT Educator's Student Debt Eliminator: Multiple Streams of Revenue for Healthcare Clinicians and Academicians To learn more, follow F. Scot at: Website: https://pteducator.com Podcast: Healthcare Education Transformation Podcast Facebook: PT Educator Twitter: @FScottFeil_DPT Instagram: @PTEducator LinkedIn: F Scott Feil YouTube: PT Educator Subscribe to Healthy, Wealthy & Smart: Website: https://podcast.healthywealthysmart.com Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/healthy-wealthy-smart/id532717264 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6ELmKwE4mSZXBB8TiQvp73 SoundCloud: https://soundcloud.com/healthywealthysmart Stitcher: https://www.stitcher.com/show/healthy-wealthy-smart iHeart Radio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-healthy-wealthy-smart-27628927 Read the full Transcript Here: 00:02 Hey, Scott, welcome to the podcast. I'm happy to have you on. It's great to see you and to speak with you. 00:09 Yeah, Karen, thank you so much for having me. I'm a longtime listener, first time caller here. So this is exciting. I've been waiting to do this for quite some time now. 00:17 Yeah. And I'm happy to have you on. And today we're talking about a topic that is near and dear to many, many physical therapists. And that is we're talking about student loan debt, and not only talking about it, but how to maybe understand it a little bit better, and how to eliminate it. So let's start with some definitions. And what is the debt to income ratio? And how does that affect your student loans. 00:50 So, you know, I'm not a student loan expert, by any means. I'm more of an elimination expert. That's that's where, you know, my specialty comes in. So I've had to learn this stuff, too. And, you know, one of the best ways that I've gone about doing this is going to certified financial planners, especially once you understand student loans, and talking through, you know, where I'm at what what plan looks like, it's going to work for me, what are my plans in the future? What is, you know, my vision look like? You know, do I want to start a family, buy a house, buy a car, all those things kind of factor in to your big plan. And then from there, you've got to come up with a foundational blueprint or a roadmap that you're going to follow based on what your student loans are. So the debt to income ratio is very simple, you know, it's the amount of student loan debt that you have, right? over your current income, and you just, you know, do the math and divide, right? So, realistically, the highest that you would want your debt to income ratio to be is approximately 1.01. To one, right. So if you had $100,000 worth of student loan debt, you're making $100,000 salary. That's not a terrible debt to income ratio, right? Unfortunately, especially in the field of physical therapy, we're finding that students are graduating with 150 175 200,000 plus worth of student loans, and they're coming out and they're getting jobs at 65 75,000 a year. And those are some pretty risky debt to income ratios, right? those, those get a little heavy, because, you know, if you don't know anything about it, and you you have all this debt, and you've accrued this debt, that's just massive, your payments are going to be massive, right, your student loan payments, if you just do the standard repayment, mine started out at 1700 a month, right. And I only had 140,000, when I graduated, that was with two doctoral degrees. So you know, it was one of those things where I got a little nervous at one point, because I didn't even know that I wanted to use the doctoral degrees, the way they were kind of meant to be used. But then I kind of settled down talk to a couple people both both on the business side of things, and on the Certified Financial Planner side of things, and created that roadmap, I went from the generic, you know, repayment plan at 1700 a month down to the income driven repayment plan, which for me, looked like about 700 a month. And then again, after really doing a deeper dive with the Certified Financial Planner, where I was at in my life and how I was planning on attacking my student loans, we've finally got it down on the repay plan or the revised Pay As You earn plan. And that's about $135 a month. And that stretches it out over 20 years now. So the difference that I'm making between the, you know, 135 a month and the 700, I was paying, I can now take that and have more liquid assets to do something with right I can have more cash in hand to invest or to start a new project or, you know, to make payments on other stuff, you know, so it's taken me some time to kind of learn this stuff. And again, like I said, I'm by no means a student loan expert, but I am learning through the bumps and the bruises and going through it and being in the thick of things there. And realistically, like I said, the best way to learn about this stuff and what's right for you, because it's going to be different for everybody is to talk to a certified financial planner that knows about student loans. So that would be my first recommendation. 04:15 Yeah, and that is great advice. Great advice. I've been working with a certified financial planner myself. And it really, it's really great to have an outside view of your finances and everything that surrounds them by a professional who can go in and not be emotional about it, and not have biases built in because we all have emotions around our money and around our debt and our loans. And so it's great to have that outside perspective. Yeah, you 04:45 hit the nail on the head there, you know, especially when it comes to business and money. We tend to be very emotional beings and you really have to be objective when it comes to that. And that was that was you know, a big takeaway that I found when when starting up businesses and you know, figuring things out. I've had a bunch of deals in the last couple months kind of crumble and fall through and it's like, Man, that's a bummer. But at the end of the day, you realize it's just business like, it's not a big deal. Not personal, that, you know, can't get emotional beat up over, you just got to move on it's business, you know? 05:15 Absolutely. It's it. But I mean, it does suck. 05:20 It does. It does. And it's okay to kind of recognize that, you know, you know, exactly, but at the end of the day, okay, it's business. What's my next step? How do I pivot? How do I recover? What comes next? You know, I think that's really what entrepreneurs are doing these days is trying to figure it out, you know, just keep rolling with the punches until they, they get it right. Yeah, 05:38 absolutely. And now, you spoke a little bit about those different kinds of student loans. And so I'm assuming there are different approaches one can take, can you speak to that? 05:50 Yeah. So you know, again, like I said, I'm not exactly a student loan expert, there's several different kinds of student loans out there, the biggest thing to try to do, if possible, is not to privatized your loans, right, try to keep as many of your loans federal as possible, because the federal plans are the ones that work with you a little bit more, there's a little bit more give to them, right? You can restructure them a little bit. Like I said, I went from just basic repayment plan to income driven repayment plan, which is based on, you know, the amount of income that I would make as a new grad, down into the revised Pay As You earn plan, which, like I said, that one kind of starts you at a lower bracket. And year over year, as you make a little bit more, it creeps up a little bit, you know, but it also, again, it stretches it out over a longer period of time. So you know, they're their differences are time dependence, you know, how quick you have to pay him back. But you know, things happen, like COVID, right, and all of a sudden, the Federal plans have all kind of stopped, they put a, you know, a pause on them until the new year. So, you know, that's one of the ways that they can give you grace, you can go into a deferment plan, if you need a month or two, you know, though, they'll work it out with you, and they'll tack it on to the end or whatever, you know, there's just a lot of forgiveness. And then at the end, there's a big forgiveness. But with federal loans, you just have a lot more grace, right? Once you privatized the loans, you're stuck, that's it, they are what they are, and you've got to pay him back, there's, there's no getting rid of them, right. Because, you know, student loans are loans that we just, we can't go bankrupt on we can't, you know, get out of there just gonna be there forever until you pay them off. So, you know, it's super important to recognize the difference between a private loan and you know, a federal loan. So big takeaway there is try to keep as many of your loans federal as possible for as long as possible, because those will have the most options for payoff and forgiveness and forgetting, you know, you know, any sort of programs that are available that may come and go, right, there's the one program where if you work for a nonprofit for 10 years, right, X amount is forgiven. Now, there's been kickback on that saying that, like 99% of people don't get approved for it at the end, they cross the finish line, then all of a sudden, the finish lines moved, right. So you know, there's some fine, fine print, you've got to read there with all these. But you know, at the end of the day, most of the federal loans will give you a certain time period. And as long as you make your payments all along that time period, at the very end, there will be some form of forgiveness. Now, the only caveat with that is the way you're forgiving those loans is you get taxed on the amount of forgiveness as if you made that income that year. So, you know, for me, it'll probably be a 20 year repayment plan, at the end of those 20 years, I'll have $100,000 left, it'll be forgiven. And then it'll be like I made that extra 100,000 on my salary that year, so I get taxed on it. So in those 20 years, I have to come up with some sort of plan to save up and to make money to repay that one year, when I have that influx in salary, even though it wasn't there. It was a loan forgiveness. So just something to think about there, too, when you're planning out your loans and your repayment plan. 09:04 Yeah, yeah, I don't think people realize that you have to pay taxes on that loan that is left. So each year, you want to make sure that you're putting money aside and putting money aside so that you're in an account that maybe you can't touch so that when it comes you're not like, Oh my gosh, where am I gonna get this money from, but you're like, Oh, I know exactly where I'm gonna get it from. Because I have this account of money I haven't touched for 20 years, you can pull it out from there. And that can be like, it doesn't have to be a savings account at the bank. Exactly. That could be an account that is actually generating, maybe, you know, 4% or something like that, right? So you're making money on it, especially if your loan is only like 2.3%. So you could take that money that you would be paying toward that loan, put it into an account that's maybe making even if you're making 4% You're still making money on on that money in there so that when the time comes to pull it out to pay your taxes, is number one, you're not penalized. So it's not like you're putting into a 401k plan or an IRA or something like that, but just putting it into some sort of an account that can make you some money on the way. 10:12 Exactly. And that's where a certified financial planner comes in, because they can set you up with a savings plan over those 20 years that can get 810 12%. So you're actually saving a ton more money, and you're paying way less when it comes to it. And the you know, the rate the APR is, is even lower. So I don't, I don't want to throw out a bunch of like, you know, terms and, you know, definitions and stuff that are just kind of boring and not very sexy, to be honest with you. But we do have to kind of know a little bit about this stuff. You don't have to be an expert. Again, I'm not. But I know enough. Now I'm educated enough, because I took the time to talk to that certified financial planner and figure this out and sit there, it only took maybe an hour or two, to sit there with them and go through the plan and look at it and say, Alright, here's where I am. Here's my goals and plans. Which program is best for me. Okay, great. Let's get on that program. And then you know what, now let's figure out how we're going to pay it out. You know, and there's several different ways to do that, too. Right? You just have to come up with that number at the end of those 20 years. So how do you want to do that? And, you know, that's where my expertise kind of comes in? Is the elimination part of it? Yeah. 11:17 Yep. So let's talk about that. Let's talk about how do you eliminate that debt. And I know one thing that you speak about is having multiple income streams, I'm sure that's part of this conversation, but I'll throw the mic over to you. So you can talk about the elimination part. What does that mean? Yeah, so 11:33 originally, when I wrote my book, right, peak educator, student debt eliminator, I thought I could just start a side business or to write and make a bunch of money, and then throw all that money that I made toward the student loans and pay them off in a year or two and be done. That was my plan. And realistically, I probably could have done that, I probably could have knocked them out in about three to five years total, and been done. But that's kind of what the banks want you to do. Right? That's what these loans, processors wants you to do. They want you to pay all your loan off as quick as possible. So they get all the money and make all the interest, right? Well, after talking to the Certified Financial Planner, I said, Okay, well, if my loans are gonna go down from you know, 700 a month and 135 a month, that leaves me a good extra chunk of money that I can do stuff with, right? And he's like, Yeah, absolutely. He's like, in truth be told, as long as you're putting your a lot of money every month into your savings plan, or whatever, you know, investment plan, if you will, to pay off that 20th year, you can do anything with the money, right? So I figured, okay, well, could I invest it in stocks? And he's like, yeah, you could do that. I said, What about crypto? And he said, you could do that? What about real estate? Can I do that? Yeah, absolutely. So that's been kind of my plan is like, Okay, let me start a couple of side businesses that generate income and revenue for now. So that I can put it toward investments that don't kind of take me on the long term. Right. And I think realistically, you know, I think almost every millionaire has several different streams of revenue, right. And I think that we need to start thinking about that, as soon as we either enter grad school, or immediately after we finish grad school, you know, what is our plan for long term wealth? Right? How are we going to take care of ourselves, as well as our family, you know, that might not even exist yet. As well, as, you know, future generations, you know, we're talking generational wealth here. And it's not like, you've got to be a millionaire, right? But you know, a couple of six figure incomes, that can help a lot of people, right? I mean, you can take care of a family, or two or three down the line, even, you know, making several six figures over the course of many, many years, you know, and then if you invest it, right, you can put it in places, like we talked about, like rental properties, or something like that, where, you know, once those pay off, the mortgages are done on those in 15 or 20 years? Well, now you're going from making two or $300 a month in rent, up to, you know, 18 or 2000 a month, per per house, right? And that's where you get into that generational wealth. So, you know, for me, it started out as a simple mobile PT practice, right? I was by myself in a car with a table and some sheets and a bag with some equipment in it. And I was just driving around, you know, Waco, Texas, just kind of helping people in their homes or their offices or the gyms. Because I knew I could do that. I knew I could start that business, right? I had enough expertise in the physical therapy world to be able to run a small practice on my own. And I didn't really want to be tied down to the brick and mortar. I didn't want to have a high overhead. I didn't want to do any of that, you know, so I just started my own little business. And it started out with a crossfitter, too, you know, and that was not my demographic. It was just people in the community that I knew that asked if I can help, and so I did. And then Luckily, one of the women that I worked with, her husband had some shoulder and elbow issues and he was a big tennis player. So she said, You treat the arm in the elbow and choice it. Yeah, absolutely, I can do that. So once I started talking with him, he's a CEO of a small business in Waco there. We got him better, we got him back in the tennis court, he was feeling great. And so then he started referring me to all his other CEO buddies, and the CEO buddies and C suite level execs, right, and all these busy businessmen and business women. And it was great because I was I was selling them time, right, it wasn't so much about the physical therapy, or whatever it was, it was, I was buying them back time because I could come to their home or their office or their gym, and they love that. So it was just the right niche for me in the right, you know, they had expendable income, most of them because they were, you know, own their own business. So it was a really good group to get into, and a really good niche to break into. And, you know, word of mouth spread. And that kind of took off? Well, once that kind of happened, I really started having to figure out how to like market myself better, and how to do some, like digital marketing, you know, Facebook ads, Google ads, stuff like that. And I just didn't know that I didn't have that skill set, you know. And so I had to take a course in that and learn from it and kind of invest in myself. But once I did get better at that, you know, I even took a copywriting course and read a bunch of copywriting books as well. And once I started getting better at that a bunch of my buddies that I graduated PT school with saw what I was doing with Facebook ads, and they said, Hey, could you do that for our business? And I was like, yeah, I'm sure I could probably figure it out. They said, We'll pay you and I was like, Okay, great. That sounds awesome. You know, and that's where my agency kind of started, right. But one of the second pillars of revenue for me. You know, I kind of started a little bit of a digital marketing agency unintentionally. And so I did that for you know, that a year or so. And that even brought me outside of the field of physical therapy as well. I did it for a couple local businesses, some home renovations, some roofers, pool builders, stuff like that. And it was really working pretty well. 16:58 And then, you know, COVID, started hitting and things kind of got a little crazy. And I was still working full time in the clinic, too. And so with my wife being a type one diabetic, and already being immunocompromised, I had to kind of step back from that a little. And I stepped away from the clinical side of things. And that same week, the head of the program at university, St. Augustine emailed me and said, Hey, are you still interested in teaching because I spoken to him at the ETD graduation in 2018. And, you know, I said I wasn't, but now it's actually looking like a pretty good option. So I stepped out of clinical work, I headed into academia. And while I was doing that, you know, it really became a good fit for me, because, you know, I talked online most of the time, and then I had to go up and be there for labs. But it also gave me a lot of free time to work on my side hustles, and my side businesses, you know, and that's kind of how I fell into the consulting gig as well, like, that wasn't something I ever thought I'd be doing either. But I worked for workman's comp company as well up there in Waco. And I said, Hey, we should be educating these businesses to injury prevention and wellness and how to properly lift and ergonomics and all that. They said, Oh, no, we're not going to do that, you know, that's gonna eat into our PT numbers. And I said, No, it won't. Because I can't stop somebody from running over someone's foot with a forklift, it's gonna happen, accidents are gonna happen, you know? And they said, Well, no, we're not going to do that. So I said, Alright, fine. I'll do it myself, you know. And so I just went around to all the companies locally there that were sending us workman's comp people. And I said, Hey, would you like to lower your workman's comp numbers? And they were like, Yeah, sure. And so I go in, and I educate the workforce. And, you know, you can charge good money for consulting. I mean, I was able to charge you know, 1000 bucks to 1500 bucks an hour for two hours worth of work. So now it becomes a matter of, Okay, do I want to see patients at $200 an hour, which is a pretty fair rate for physical therapy, right? Cash pay at a network? Or do I want to work two hours and just, you know, educate these people and use my add my education background combined with my PT background, to kind of help them with injury prevention and wellness. Right. So again, it just kind of one of those things that fell into my lap, that wasn't ever something I thought I would do it just the opportunities were there. And I just kind of sees, you know, it was like, seeing like these opportunities out there and just realizing that holy cow, this is where I knew I was fine. Having a PT, you know, DPT and an add, not necessarily wanting to use them even though now I am, you know, more traditionally. But being able to leverage those degrees into other opportunities. You know, I'm not a huge believer in luck, I kind of feel like you make your own luck, you have to work hard and you have to network and leverage, you know, with the right people at the right times about the right things. And then you'll start seeing those opportunities, you know, kind of open up and you have to be ready to jump on those opportunities when they present themselves. So, you know, that's, that's kind of where a lot of these streams of revenue started from. It just kind of happened, you know, and I fell into them and I got better and better and better at it. I went, and then I was able to help more people with them as well. 20:04 Yeah, it sounds like you've gone from one to the next to the next to the next, which is, which is good. You're sort of keeping yourself open and you're learning and, and understanding like, Hey, I don't know how to do this. So I'm going to educate myself and learn a little bit more, and be able to do things that may not be at face value, what you went to, quote unquote, school for, but yet they are. 20:32 Yeah, I mean, we learn so many amazing skill sets throughout grad school, you know, whether it be the DPT program, or the ed d program, systems, right processes, standard operating procedures, things like that, like clinical development, and, you know, clinical thinking skills, critical thinking skills, all these things that we learn, are a lot higher level than a lot of the general public already know and deal with. So we can help by kind of bringing those things down and simplifying them, just like we would talk to a patient, right, if you're using layman's terms, you know, and I think the key here is to realize that we have a lot of these skills already, you can keep one foot in the healthcare boat already. Or you can diverged and go a different route. And you know, some of these skill sets, you're gonna have to learn because not everybody's, you know, born a natural with a lot of these skill sets. And that's okay, I've done that. But it's a good combination of taking as much as you already know, and pushing in on that. And then adding and supplementing a little bit here and there, when you find that you need it. You know, and that's where I think taking courses and paying for mentors, and doing all that stuff speeds up your timeline a little bit. You know, and that's why I'm a big believer in that I've had many coaches, many mentors over the last couple years, and they've totally sped up my timeline and showed me mistakes that they made and made sure I didn't make the right, you're still gonna make your own mistakes, there are a lot of them are going to be different than what your mentors went through, right? That's totally normal. But it's, it's realizing that they're not failures, they're just learning opportunities, you know, and I think we as pts are really good at being lifelong learners. And so it really shouldn't be a problem to dive into a skill set you're not familiar with, and just, you know, put your ego aside and being like, Alright, I don't know this, I need to learn it, here's a good resource, here we go, you know, just keep kind of attacking it until you get it right. You know, and I think at the end of the day, these multiple revenue streams now that are kind of growing are great, I love them, I'm very passionate and energized about them. They're definitely like passion projects for me, you know, and zones of genius for me, but it's a good way for me to get an outlet of creativity, I think, because I was an English major before I was a PT, right. So, you know, that to me was was a big transition in itself. But that's also helped me monetize blogs, monetize my book, right? monetize, SEO, and email sequences and copywriting. So, you know, again, all those things kind of fall into that consulting, revenue stream. But, you know, I had to learn how to adapt that English major into copywriting or into email marketing, or whatever it may be, you know, and I think the one key takeaway that I've had with all these revenue streams, is you've got to do one at a time, and you've got to get it flowing. And then you can step on to the next stream of revenue, then get that up and running, then get that flowing. And then step onto the next one. And again, you know, if you don't do that, you're going to fall for that shiny object syndrome, right, and you're going to be kind of chasing around, Ooh, that looks cool, that looks cool. I could do that, oh, I could do that, oh, that person's doing that, Oh, that looks really good. They all work. And you can do all of them, for sure. But you've got to get one down first, and then move on to the next and there's going to be you know, arguments and debates over what number is the right number to walk away from the first one and go on to the second one. I don't think it matters, I really don't just get it up and running, make sure it's making you some money, make sure it's profitable. And then when you're ready to step on to the next project, you're still gonna go back to the first one, you know, you're still who knows, you may even hire somebody to take over that portion for you. You know, but just knowing that there's multiple opportunities out there for physical therapists for healthcare providers, I think it's a great stepping stone for you to kind of open your mind a little and get out of that nine to five clock in clock out clinician mindset, you know, 24:15 and where are you now with? How many streams of revenue Do you have at the moment? And if you could put it in a pie chart, what is what makes up what? Because I think people would really be curious as Jeff, you mentioned a whole bunch. So where are you now? And what does it look like? 24:32 So I essentially what I teach, you know, all my students, I have what's called the feelgood method, right? Which is not just a clever play on my last name. It's also you know, how I make my students feel good about staying organized with their streams of revenue, right. So there's an umbrella on top and that's your holding company, right? For me, it's feelgood industries. pllc. Texas recommends if you have a professional license that you get a pllc it's different for every state. But, you know, doctors, lawyers, dentists, they all have pllc Alright, so since I started as a mobile clinic, I started as a pllc. then underneath that I had about four or five different revenue streams or tubes of revenue, that each of those was a DBA, or doing business as underneath the pllc. Eventually, I'm probably gonna have to turn some of those into their own individual LLC and make the pllc an actual holding company, but I'm not there yet. So, you know, with each stream of revenue, like I said, I have a couple little numbers next to each stream. And those are the checklists, things that you have to get done in order for that stream to start running. So I made a shift recently, because of my changing career, you know, like I said, the goal is to try to, you know, kick the bucket of the nine to five and do your own thing, you know, and go all in on entrepreneurship and your own business eventually, right? That's the hope. For me, my story's a little bit different, because my wife is a type one diabetic. And we need not just medical benefits, but good medical benefits, right? My nine to five might always be there. And I'm okay with that. I've learned how to kind of find the best possible job with the best possible benefits. and academia has afforded me that right now. So I'm able to do that, you know, at a little bit lower rate of like 32 hours a week instead of maybe 40. And that gives me more time then to work on the businesses. So while I was doing a lot of the mobile PT at first, that's kind of decrease now, because like I said, it's like, do I want to treat patients for $200 an hour do I want to do consulting at 1500? An hour, right. So I would say overall, you know, I've got the mobile business, I've got my online business and PT educator Comm. And then I've got my consulting, business, FTI consulting, and those are kind of the three main revenue streams. Now in those revenue streams. There's probably, I don't know, three or four different services, if you will, that are offered. You know, the consulting can be anything like injury prevention and wellness, because I've got that systemized. And I've got templates for that now where I can just come in, do the tour, see what's what, and then put together a presentation overnight. And then that also will have my copywriting little digital marketing. It'll have you know, Facebook ads, Google ads, it'll have copywriting, email, all that stuff underneath the consulting. And those I can charge, you know, for just one little piece, or put together a package where I'm like, Hey, here's what you need, here's what I recommend, you can go ahead and do it based on my outline, or if you need my help, here's my price, right, my fees. And then PT educator comm is just like I said, my online site where I do a lot of my blogs, I have a lot of the courses for sale and stuff like that. And that's just really to kind of keep me up to date on my writing. And, you know, my blogging skills and stuff like that just recently passed them the mark for 1000 subscribers and 4000, watch hours for YouTube. So I cannot monetize that as well. So the vlog cast, which I do one episode a week of an interview with somebody who's done that particular side, hustler side gig, starts out on YouTube, and then eventually makes it to the podcast in audio form. And that actually, the podcast hasn't even come out, that'll start September 1. With the first few episodes, I'll probably release three or four and the first one, and then do one a week after that. So if you want the new fresh content, you go to YouTube and watch the video if you want to catch up, you go to the podcasts. But if we're if we're giving it a breakdown, you know, I would say we're probably at about 60% of consulting at this point. And coaching, I kind of put coaching underneath that as well. And then I would say, you know, the the online business is probably about 30% at this point. And then treatment is just at this point, word of mouth, close family and friends here in the Wimberley area, you know, 10%? If that? 28:54 Yeah, got it? Yeah, I think that's really helpful for people to hear so that they're like, wait, I don't understand how, how is someone doing all of this at one time? Do you know what I mean? 29:03 Yeah, and let me make this clear, too. So 32 hours a week is still dedicated to my full time job and Right, right. So that gives me maybe eight hours extra to get to a 40 hour week, and then I work 50 or 60 hours a week, there's you know, I love that stuff, though. I would do that for free if I could all day every day, because that's what gets me excited, you know, the passion projects, helping people figure out a business model. So you're, you know, figure out what they can do for side hustles and side gigs. Even if it's just making an extra 500 bucks, you know, a week or something like that, you know that that could be huge for somebody who's having to pay 2000 bucks a month for student loans, right or 1500 bucks a month for student loans. So if we can figure out a side hustle or side business to get you started, at least, maybe you grow it big enough to the point where you can walk away from that nine to five and that's great if that's what you want to do. You know, but but I'm also to the point where I was working 60 or 70 hours a week for someone else and trading time for money and just wasn't cutting it. So I've scaled back, I've been able to, you know, increase my value on certain things and, you know, raise the prices on things enough to where I'm working less time and making more money. So it's like PRN rates don't even, you know, don't even cut it for me anymore. It's not even something I would look at. It's just not worth my time, because the money's nice, right. But the time freedom is really what you're looking for, I think, you know, I think people are, are looking to claim back a lot of that time with their family, not having to work weekends, not having to stay, you know, all hours at night at an outpatient clinic, doing notes and trying to, you know, stay on top of things. So, I know I've been there, man, it's a grind. And, you know, it's nice to be able to use my add and teach and to use my DPT and use that knowledge toward you know, something as trivial as a fantasy football injury course, right? That was one of the first courses I ever made. And then, you know, video gamers eSports, I did an Esports ebook on injury prevention for gamers, right? Like, that stuff is just fun to me, you know, I love that stuff. And we can use our knowledge to help those people and solve those problems. So why not do that? Right? Why not find a hobby or something you like? And just go all in on it, you know, and use your knowledge to help people. You know, so that's been a big a big finding for me over the last year or two, it's just that, you know, you don't have to work as hard. You know, you can scale back, you know, charge what you're worth, and make a lot more money in a lot less time. You know? 31:29 Yeah, that all makes sense to me. And what would be your says, we kind of come come to a close here, what, what is your biggest, your most important piece of advice for people listening, if they could take one, if you were like, oh, man, if you just took one thing away from this talk, this would be it. 31:51 Yeah, I think physical therapy or your profession, your career just has to be the tip of your iceberg, right? I mean, again, like I said, we as physical therapists can do so many things, we can help so many people, and it's like, if I go and treat a patient, you know, one on one, that's great, that one person gets better in that hour, maybe times eight hours a day, there's eight people, right? If you want to have a bigger impact, and you want to affect more people, right? Then maybe you coach somebody or teach somebody, you know how to start their own business. And now that person's treating, you know, 50 people a week. So now you're impacting 50 there, and the few that you were teaching, then you coach somebody else on something else, and they're helping, you know, 20 businesses, you know, with their patient intake model, and they're, you know, they're doing things, you know, at a higher rate. So now you're helping 20 businesses with 50 patients each, right. And so I think more impact can come if we realize that we're more than just a physical therapist that goes in and treats eight people a day, or 20 people a day, or 30 people a day, or whatever you're treating, right? Like we can do so much more. And we just need to think outside the box a little bit, you know, and be a little bit more than that nine to five clinician that clock in and clock out, you know, and then again, by having a bigger impact by helping more people, right, and then coming at it with a servant's heart. Money is just a byproduct, you can then take that money and pay off your student loans quicker if you want or invest in things that are going to make you more money down the line so that you can pay off the student loans, should you want to do it over a longer period of time. Either way, you know, it's just about opening your eyes and seeing that there's a whole lot more out there than just you know, going to outpatient clinic every day and seeing your patients. 33:29 Excellent, excellent advice and great takeaway. Now, where can people find you if they want to learn more about you what you're doing and how to get in touch with you? 33:37 Yeah, sure. So all of my tags are pretty much at p key educator on all the social medias. And then the book is on Amazon. It's available in softcover. And in Kindle, it's called PT educator, student debt eliminator, multiple streams of revenue for healthcare, academicians and clinicians. definitely have a second edition coming out pretty soon. So check it out, out while you can. You know, I'd love to see people hop on the second edition as well, because there are a couple of key changes with all the stuff that's going on nowadays, with cryptocurrencies and, you know, all sorts of investing strategies and stuff like that. So I'm still learning, you know, lifelong learner for sure. 34:13 Absolutely. And last question, what advice would you give to your younger self, knowing where you are now in your life and in your career? Yeah. 34:22 Don't Don't worry, as much, you know, just leverage the heck out of your, your career and your degrees. You know, use them to do what you want to do and what you enjoy doing, you know, leverage the heck out of it, you'll be fine. 34:37 Excellent, great advice. I've heard that many times on this show. So, Scott, thanks so much for coming on. This was great. I think you really gave people a lot to think about and some inspiration on maybe how they can use their passions and and think outside the box a little bit. So thanks for coming on. 34:57 Absolutely. Thank you, Karen. It's been a pleasure. 35:00 Absolutely and everyone, thanks so much for listening. Have a great couple of days and stay healthy, wealthy and smart.
It's been about six weeks since listener Scot spoke about wanting to improve his blood pressure and lose a few pounds. So what kind of improvements has he seen after taking Thunder Jalili and Dr. Madsen's advice about increasing his physical activity and speaking with a nutritionist?
EP277- Holiday 2021 Preview Holiday 2021 will be one of the most uncertain holiday events in modern retail history. Major disruptions to the supply chain, the last mille, and to consumer behavior as a result of covid, will make this year extremely hard to predict and manage for brands and retailers. Will shipageddon 2.0 play out again this year? Will the supply chain become the supply pain? With Amazon and Target starting holiday deals early in October, and consumer still looking for scarce inventory late into January or even February, Holiday 2021 is likely to be 5 months long. In this episode we break down all the potential issues, and make some prediction about how it might all play out. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Episode 277 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Sunday October 3rd, 2021. Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 277 being recorded on Sunday October third 2021 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:40] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason and Scot show listeners, Jason this is a really good time for listeners to pause because we're going to do a deep dive here so that means it can be a little bit of a longer episode. And leave us that five-star review this episode is going to be so good you can go ahead and pre leave us the five star review so we'll wait for second for you to come back. All right thanks for doing that that really helps us out as we get the word out about the show, Jason last year at and I went back and had a one of our many interns look at this and it was exactly this time last year I think was actually October 2nd recording this in October 3rd so it's a pretty darn close. We coined and we were doing our annual holiday preview and we both coined and predicted ship again and that is where we saw pretty early on I think before a lot of the rest of the folks in the industry that there was going to be both a surge in digital adoption due to covid plus the normal holiday increase from e-commerce and that that was going to more than absorb all of the available last-mile demand and that's the why we coined ship again and it happened and it was bad but we all survived and made it through and hopefully the folks listening to this show got in front of that both on their business and personal side. [1:58] Well this year we want to use this episode and do a deep dive into what that's going to look like this year and it's a more complex situation last year was pretty easy to lie to read those tea leaves because you know we were already pretty close to capacity before covid and it was kind of pretty easy prediction to say that we're going to far exceed the ability to deliver the packages. This year we have a lot to unpack for you spoiler alert it's going to be worse than last year much worse because not only is it that last little piece of the whole digital retail chain of events The Last Mile that's going to be a problem but it's all the other pieces leading into it that are going to be a problem something we call the supply chain but this year we are going to call it the supply pain so we're going to peel the onion on this and first we're going to look at the economic setup heading into holiday 21 then we're going to look at the global state of supply chain then we're going to look at some of the holiday trims that are kind of factors we think that are going to tie into this last some of the pontificate errs are out with their forecasts and we're going to go through those and kind of see what we think about those. Jason want it could suck kick it off with the economic setup coming into holiday 21. Jason: [3:15] Yeah awesome Scott so first of all let me start by saying on the macroeconomic picture most of the professional analysts that look at this. Are pretty uniform in feeling like the consumer is generally in a good place that the economy is in a pretty good place and they are all very bullish on the consumers ability to spend this holiday. And I say that because my own personal feeling is that there's a little more uncertainty cooked in there there certainly are some encouraging favorable things. And there's a few worrisome things and I think. What's going to become the theme for all of these sections we talked about today is there's a significant amount of uncertainty there's a lot of things that could swing either way and have a dramatic impact on holiday so. It is what it is but. Sort of giving you how I look at the macroeconomic situation the first thing we'll talk about is inflation and there's a bunch of ways to look at inflation but a simple one is there's this thing called the Consumer Price Index which kind of. Factors in how much of each good consumers purchase and how much prices are raising for that, and the the CPI is it about 5.25% right now so that's pretty significant we more expensive Goods that consumers are having to pay. And ordinarily that inflation can be problematic for the economy a couple of things to know though. [4:43] If you kind of look at the shape of that CPI it actually is going down a little bit from a peak in July and so possible we've seen the. Peak of inflation and it's starting to come back down. Inflation is a mixed bag for retailers and holiday because they get more money for everything they sell they tend to sell less stuff but make more on each in certain circumstances it can be more profitable. Um but you know the goods are costing more we've got this 5.25 percent inflation. We also though have a pretty significant increase in wages so people are getting paid more for their work, particularly low-income people, are getting paid more for work retailers and warehouses and all kinds of companies are having to raise their wages to compete for the for this labor force that's been hard to find right now and so, wages are going up and in general the analysts would call those two things Awash that that consumers. Are getting bigger paychecks and they're having to spend more on their necessities and that at the moment that's about Break Even so two interesting things to know. [5:52] A kind of predictor of future spending is this this huge survey that University of Michigan does every month the consumer confidence index. And when when we were kind of in the peak of recovery from the first wave of covid-19, that index was a leading indicator that said consumers were starting to feel good about the economy and it hit like it's this index it over a hundred today it's sitting at 71, which is the lowest point since January of 2019 it's not, like a historic low or anything like that that you know you go like oh it's way below normal, but it does appear that consumers are in general feeling less good about the economy than they were, um you know just a month or two ago now there's a bunch of political news out right now and there was fear of government shutdown that we've already averted and those kinds of things have a big impact on the consumer index oh. [6:49] Um I that consumer index doesn't have a perfect correlation with spending so I don't spend too much time thinking about it but just to know, that's a number that had been favorable and is kind of shrinking down. A big one we talk about is unemployment because people don't have jobs it's hard for them to spend on Goods obviously at the beginning of the pandemic we had a huge spike in unemployment, unemployment is actually pretty good right now we're at five point two percent. The kind of pre-pandemic average was about four so we're not all the way back to pre-pandemic average but that pre-pandemic. [7:22] Point was a historic low so historically 5.2 percent is pretty decent for unemployment. Um so like most most analysts would say that's a favorable indicator the two things to know there is, that's based on the people that are seeking jobs and not getting it there actually is a ton of people that kind of took themselves out of the workforce we. Fully understand where all those people went but a big chunk of those people were second incomes for household so like a lot of women. That like maybe don't have as good a help childcare as they had before or more school challenges or things and so they haven't gone back to the workforce and many of them are seeking work so they don't show up in the unemployment number so. Just be aware like household incomes are somewhat stressed because of that factor and then as we've talked about before on this show like as of July. People that make over $60,000 a year the unemployment is actually ten percent better than it was before the pandemic so they're doing great. And the low-income people that are making less than $30,000 a year their unemployment is still 21 percent lower than it was. The beginning of the pandemic so so a little bit of a bifurcated recovery on the jobs thing. [8:38] One of the reasons that we historically have that we had high unemployment was because there's all these rich benefits this enhanced unemployment benefits that people got that all expired last week. So if people were staying at home because they could make more and unemployment that that justification probably ended. The bad news is that ended in 26 States over two months ago and in general the data shows that people did not rush back to work when it ended. So there's not necessarily a reason to think a ton more people are going to rush back to work now that that it's ended everywhere but we'll have to see. Um the other macroeconomic things all these natural disasters are negative to the economy so you know when hurricane Ida takes a hundred billion dollars out of the economy that's a bummer. Um [9:25] Another hugely favorable one in the one that most of us are hanging our hats on that are looking for a good holiday is the savings rate and this is the most unprecedented recession of all times. Unemployment you know went way up at the peak of the pandemic but so did savings which has never happened before, and part of that was because we had all this stimulus money we were pouring into the economy but the savings rate normally hovers around 8% it shot up to 32 percent during the peak of the pandemic, it's way off of that Peak it's a nine point six which is still a little higher than it was before the pandemic and that. All that extra money that a lot of household socked away because they got the stimulus and they spent less during the the peak of the pandemic. [10:18] Arguably puts consumers in a good place to spend for this holiday the counter-argument would be all that stimulus. Is mostly over there still are you know very lumpy employment situation and a lot of that savings has dwindled, um so we'll see how it goes, um but then the last fact I'm going to throw up before I go at Scott get a word in edgewise is that the stock market has done phenomenally right and, we're way up from the pre-pandemic level and so the investor class and people that have you know as a meaningful portion of their wealth. Tied to the market. Did terrific right and so if there is economic uncertainty and instability in this economy it's bifurcated and it's the lower-income people that like do not have equity in the stock market. Um there were her but roll all that up and the the professional analysts feel like. Macroeconomic situation all to all in is pretty good and of course when rich people do well that help certain sectors of the economy quite a bit right and at the moment luxury and jewelry are doing phenomenally well for example so. That's kind of my snapshot of the macroeconomy Scott anything you'd violently disagree with or anything you pay particular attention to. Scot: [11:45] I think I think that's right I think you know there's a lot of folks that feel the inflation the CPI isn't the right inflation number it's kind of this old metric. This basket of goods and doesn't capture a lot of things you know there's, I follow a lot of the crypto people and, so there's been a huge wealth creation through crypto and that whole world which is kind of interesting and then you know there's there's a feeling that the FED has pumped so much cash into the system that is just sloshing around and kind of crazy ways which is why you saw that savings rate kind of go up as high as it did and you know they're they're talk track goes that that's why we're not seeing as much employment where folks have taken so those free free dollars and and you know. Done something with it so that they don't need a job now or they're going to be less likely to enter the workforce but I think at all. Yeah I would say I agree with the analysts on that it's going to be a pretty good holiday. [12:51] But I think the problem we'll get into that as I just don't think there's going to be a thing to buy so I don't not sure if it matters. Jason: [12:56] So step one American families probably have some money to spend okay so now as we've already alluded to the next challenges what is the supply chain look like and what could they spend it on and Scott what's your kind of read there. Scot: [13:13] Yes Supply chains from those things we always talk about but then you know in in your mind you have this kind of linkage these things linked together I remember as a kid when you would cut out the little construction paper strips and make the little chain to go around. The holiday tree there II reminds me of that and we kind of vaguely talk about it as this big, big thing and we want to really unpack it on this episode so as a summary you know there's when you make a product let's say it's one time in a million familiar with right now is a vehicle that which is one of the more complex products or even a. You're relatively simple product like an electronic toy or an apparel item or almost anything it's going to have first of all it. It's going to have component parts right so there's going to be some form of pieces that go into that I kind of mentally think of them as the Lego blocks that make up that item so if it's a cool trendy trench coat there's going to be obviously fabric buttons may be a variety of fabrics and things like that so there's generally it's hard to make any product without there being at least 10 inputs and then many times, thousands if not tens or hundreds of thousands as you get into like iPhones and vehicles and stuff like that. [14:33] So that's important to remember is each one of those component parts has a supply chain right and you can't make a widget until its component pieces are all there so what happens is we're seeing this really interesting and it's hard to know the root cause or theirs some of the economic stuff you talked about is part of it we're we're just having labor shortages that cause things but then you know we'll talk about some of this there's we import a lot of our goods from China and they're having all kinds of issues of their own there's covid related things non-covered related things but generally let's think about the supply chain and kind of the broad sense of you have typically the bulk of goods are made offshore some of them are are made on Shore but let's kind of assume in this example A lot of these products are coming from offshore or at least income the many of the components maybe there's some assembly in the US but at least the the components for a any widget are made offshore so that's number one so that has to be made in a factory somewhere and then shipped here so there's the port of origin so it leaves a port in a foreign land and then needs to come on its way to the United States for a consumer to buy it. That Journey can go a variety of different ways will to it can go by boat or air, the standard way that products are moved is through containers so you by everyone seemed these containers there's all these cool. [15:57] We just opened up here a restaurant container Village kind of a thing so you have those containers their specialized boats that carry these and and or you can put them on airplanes. So then they get on a boat let's say the bulk of products do go by boat there is some by are then they have to go over the sea and then they get to a destination port so there's you know there's two ports involved with every product that comes across in a container then it has to be unloaded from that boat you've probably seen these giant cranes somewhere. [16:29] Fun Star Wars fact those are the that's where George Lucas got the idea for at-ats he saw some of the cranes and one of the ports on the west coast and thought of what if you had a giant walking robots that look like that so those have to be unloaded and then typically you're going to put them on either so then when they get to the United States in one of the ports they're going to be offloaded onto either a truck and then part of the truck that's really critical in this is called a chassis so if you've ever seen you've probably driven by a million of these container trucks but if you take the container off that's the chassis part as you've got the front part of the truck, then you've got the chassis which holds the container and then the container sits squarely on there it's pretty clever if you think about how it's all been designed or that same container can be put over on rail so there are specialized railroad cars for carrying containers and then and then the product goes on its way then it makes it to a warehouse and then it goes to from that fulfillment center it gets distributed many times do a couple maybe from a big kind of inbound fulfillment center to some regionals to some locals and maybe even one step closer to kind of hyper local and then it gets into the last mile delivery part of the world so it gets onto the virtual shelves and then is sold and goes into that last month so [17:52] There's there's a lot that has to happen right in there and we're going to go through some of the things that are not working right now and you know like any any chain any. There's at least common denominator problem so all that can work great and if you don't have Last Mile Vehicles then you've got a problem or, the factories aren't making things fast enough then the whole chain is compressed and you've got this other set of problems and you know where we are now is almost every single part of that chain I just walked through is is kind of you know sport or in a bad situation right now and we'll take you through some examples. Jason let's start with factories what's going on there. Jason: [18:34] Yeah well a couple challenges with factories so obviously the we have the most factories in China and the good news with China is. Covid is mostly under control they definitely have had a. A spike from from Delta they almost had had down a zero before Delta. [18:55] Because of their their concerns about the the virus they have China has what's called the zero covid policy and what that means is. If they have a single case of covid they will they will shut down an entire business or. Even a sector of business so while there's not huge outbreaks of covid and factories right now. There have been a bunch of examples where only a few cases of covid showed up and that caused a factory to be closed for two weeks so there there have been some disruptions with the Chinese factories. But the bigger problem has been that it, from before and in the very beginning of covid a lot of manufacturing got Diversified and moved out of China right and so the second biggest manufacturer of apparel behind China right now is Vietnam. Vietnam has had a lot of trouble with Delta and about a third of the factories in Vietnam are shut down right now so a lot of the factories that make goods are not making as many Goods either because. [19:56] They don't have very good access to vaccines and they're having covid problems or they have really rigid government policies like China. And then forecasting a future problem that's a huge Debbie Downer, is China is actually experiencing a real energy crisis right now and China always has to kind of, ration electricity and they give quotas at the beginning of every year to these factories and factories often have to shut down because they exceed their quotas. Well this year like they have less. [20:31] Energy capacity in China for a variety of reasons in the cost of coal has gone way up. Um there's there's fixed pricing for for energy in China and said the producers can't charge you more even though the cold cost more and so they have less incentive to make it which means there's less energy and so there's a lot of fear that there's going to be a ton more slowdowns of Chinese factories because of this looming energy crisis so all of those things. Our kind of conspiring to make like the amount of product available from the factories like. Significantly inconsistent and hard to. Scot: [21:12] And then say the call thing and because I have read a couple articles on this and I haven't under Center so they're in an attempt to be green they've lowered the price of coal so cold manufacturers have stopped making goals that. Jason: [21:26] So I think that's what the the green thing has a significant impact here but the the communist country they set the the. It's a. [21:37] The energy industry is a tightly regulated industry and so the prices are fixed so that so the government decides the beginning of the year what the price of electricity is going to be. [21:47] So then these factories are only allowed to charge that price or plus or minus 10% of that price, and coal is four hundred percent more expensive so a lot of factories don't want a lot of power plants don't want to make energy electricity from coal right now because they can't do it profitably, they don't have permission from the government to charge for hundred percent for their electricity but they're having to pay 400 percent for their coal so. There is less production because of that it is also absolutely true that China has some, zero emissions by wants a 2060 things and they have concrete milestones in place every year and so even before cover that constrain how much electricity they were going to be able to make this year with current production means. And it meant that factories had a quota, um and and often that means Factories do periodically shut down when they use up their quota factories are rushing to get more efficient so they're all its, it's like everything it creates all these Downstream effects whatever equipment you use to make your stuff there's probably a more energy efficient version of that equipment that you now want to buy. But it's hard to get your hands on so all the factories are competing for the more energy-efficient versions of all this this materials, but the it's likely that more factories are going to be shut down for longer this year than ever before because of energy shortages. Scot: [23:14] And I saw an interesting graphic I forget I think is there Bloomberg or Wall Street Journal where the government then said well if you're going to shut down energy they created these zones and they put like a lot of that Apple manufacturing plants in The Greener zones that we get more power but then they neglected a lot of the input parts so. But the factories that can make the iPhone 13 or operating but they're sitting there idle because the the red zones that aren't getting a lot of power or only able to run like half a shift are. Jason: [23:44] Per your point like even if the Lego factories allowed to make Lego castles if they're not allowed to make red blocks. It's tough to make a lot of weight so castles so that that is yeah. It's a mess and then to give you an idea how cute it is normally they only shut down the the industrial areas there's so much constrained energy now that they're starting to shut down residential areas so people are. Are like having their power in their residences turned off as well. Scot: [24:14] Interesting and then I've been tracking ports here in the US very closely but what are you seeing at ports of origin in other countries. Jason: [24:24] Well this is one we're very publicly this zero covid policy that China has instituted has come into play. So that that all the biggest ports in the world are in China the third largest port in the world is divided into four terminals one of the four terminals was just shut down for two weeks because of a single. Positive test of covid and so that again to the extent that the factories are making stuff and they need to load up all those containers, um if they have to stop loading for 2 weeks that that creates a real lumpiness in the in the supply chain and that is a particularly hard thing to predict right like if you're just saying like oh man of. Factory you know has a bunch of sick workers it's going to shut down you can kind of watch that and see it coming but what you can't see coming is, you know a very small number of cases having a very material impact on the supply chain like these these ports that are shutting down and so the. The those impacts are sort of outsized on the supply chain at the moment. Scot: [25:34] Yeah and then so so now we've got our products you know, if they can make it through this Gauntlet that we've already laid out they're going to get on a boat and they are going to go get packed into a container and there's a fun if you're a business you're trying to get as much of this product into a container as possible because it's pretty much all you can eat once you once you buy a container there's fractional containers whatnot and because of there's a shortage in containers and then the cost to send these containers has gone way up so right now as we record this the cost there's actually an index you can look at this so if you were will put a link to show notes but if you Google Freight Fredo's fre IG HT o s index there's an index that tracks this and we have hit a record of 20500 86 average dollars to send a container and that's twice what it was in July of this year and that was twice of what it was in January so we effectively you know in July it was about ten thousand dollars and in January as about five thousand dollars now another interesting Factor here is depending on how many units you put in a container you divide that that unit cost right so if you're putting I'll keep the math easy a thousand units in one of these containers which would be something relatively big you're going to you know you just added effectively another. Yeah. [26:57] Let's see I should have smelled your $15 to the product just in kind of Landing cost with this with this increase so whatever your cost is on a per unit it's gone up effectively 4X since January so that's a factor to consider. [27:15] And what I'm what I'm hearing from people on the ground is you'll go bid and you kind of get get in front of this number right now so you're actually out there bidding today 30,000 to get a container and then you think you'll have one and then they'll say oh you know we need to re-evaluate that because they can the shipping company I'm talking to is now saying is 33,000 so there's this like running auction to get. Space on these boats that are coming over because of some of the rest of the supply chain that will talk about so. [27:46] So how about are so that's that's what it looks like by boat what are you seeing on the air side. Jason: [27:51] Yeah and obviously the most cost-effective way to get all this stuff here is via boat so you'd prefer to do that but when the boats aren't available or if you you need stuff considerably faster like a, in Good Times it takes about about 40 days to move a container from China to the west coast of the US so. Some Goods do come via air and little known fact 50% of Air Freight that comes into the u.s. comes on the bottom of, passenger airplanes right so it's not it's not FedEx and UPS planes flying from China to the US cargo planes it's, it's the bottom of these passenger planes and guess what is not happening right now is. International so there's just way less flights and said there's way less capacity for this Air Freight and so both, because there's more demand for Air Freight because of all the problems with the ocean Freight and because there's less Supply that the air option has you know been dramatically diminished from where it would normally be. Scot: [28:56] Yep so then so then you decide okay well I've got to put on a boat you do that you wait your 40 days and then what you find out is your delayed for a very long time because the heart problem is the u.s. ports are all pretty much maxed out so we've kind of done this very big under-investing in our ports so one of our our biggest one is in Los Angeles at Long Beach and then we have Savannah New York New Jersey and then there's a lot of secondary and tertiary ports but those are the big ones and there's another index that Bloomberg, puts out which is effectively the number of boats that are anchored offshore and you know what you want to you never want to Anchor these things because effectively they're just sitting there all that product just sitting there you know. Doing nothing waiting and the reason the reason why they're sitting there is the ports are they can't unload the products fast enough. [29:55] There's a million reasons why we'll talk about that in a second but this just actually ticked up over there's over 40 boats, and this is interesting I've read a data point this has 74 Los Angeles and 40 I think there's 40 anchored in 30 actively kind of being done there's these Maps if you look at my Twitter feed I just tweeted one to just show you know the port and the congestion there's just all these boats just sitting there waiting to come on shore I have a friend that lives in LA and they can just as they drive around they can just see the boats out there just fact it's very unusual time frame. Jason: [30:30] One of the supply chain guys I work with suggested that we should start a new company Uber barge where we deliver like In and Out Burgers to all these boats that are stuck offshore. Scot: [30:39] Someone someone tried to actually get a helicopter to go out one to get their container often. You can't do that because if you've ever seen these things are stacked like 50 deeper someone is crazy you can't just say I really need that one right there so this this index just ticked over 70 for the first time ever since has been created which is just just crazy. [31:00] And so why is it taking so long to offload the boats well we have under invested in these things and then we have this discontinued problem with the supply chain. Number one there's not enough people to I think it's longshoreman there's a lot of these Union type jobs that you hear about that do this so there's a longshoreman or the ones that offload products for a long time due to covid they were only running like half the number of shifts that used to so they have actually spun that up, they're running more shifts but now there's a shortage of chassis and then because of that. [31:37] You know if you don't have chassis you can still off load the boat but now you have to put it into kind of medium term or short term storage and then all that is full so there's not enough chassis there's not enough truck drivers if there is chassis and then if there's not chassis all the storage is full and then, the one when a product comes off the boat at the Port it can either go by truck or rail the whole rail system is all jammed up as well the this is interesting I read this one article that. Near you in the Joliet train yard which is one of the biggest ones in middle of the country they're so jammed up they have over 8,000 containers stacked there waiting for more training capacity and then some some days the trains are backed up for 25 miles waiting as they're loading these containers on there to try to do this, normal turnaround for a chassis to go at a port to deliver something to where it's going and come back is three and a half days due to all these various shortages that is extended out to 17 days so that's pretty crazy. A big factor in this port jam up is also the shortage of drivers and I call them CDL Drivers which is a commercial driver's license. [32:49] To drive one of these 18-wheelers that's going to carry a container you have to have a you know a certification for a certain type of vehicle there's It's relatively, no time-consuming to go get the certification and the number of drivers that have this is actually decreasing over time as they age out and enough people are coming into the profession so I read one article and this was by one of the one of the professional groups of CDL drivers that there's about 240,000 shortfall of CDL Drivers compared, kind of where the demand is there's about you call it to and 50,000 fewer drivers than they need so we're seeing you know I think I can remember was you or someone but Amazon and Walmart are ineffectively gunfighter these people where they're charged their they're paying crazy signing bonuses and hourly rates and salaries for any kind of truck drivers and so because they're the biggest. Employers of these things they tend to have the better economics and its really starving out other parts of the market as they absorb all the available CDL drivers. Jason: [33:57] Yeah that Walmart's paying a hundred and for a new driver $160,000 a year and eight thousand dollar signing bonus. Scot: [34:04] Yeah yes it's not uncommon uncommon thing to see out there it's pretty crazy, so that's what's going on at the ports it is a hot mess on this side as well so even if you are fortunate enough to get your product here to the US then you know you're looking at probably an extra 40 days I think is kind of you know what everyone's saying right now and that's average it can take a lot longer the LA Port is so jammed up that people are are they're rerouting you know rerouting boats across the sand getting them to other other ports but there are no like there's one in Georgia and it's the Savannah one and it's getting backed up I just saw they authorized building this this kind of effectively opening up a big giant parking area to put containers and that's going to give them some more storage capacity but you know where if you add up those, here we are you know in October and you start adding these things together the the holidays pretty much baked at this point right there's you maybe have 15 to 20 days of window here for stuff you already ordered. 80 days ago to kind of get here but none of this stuff is going to get fixed fast that's going to be part of the problem. Jason: [35:17] Yeah yeah if you follow the earning calls like Nike for example like dramatically lowered their guidance and they said Hey look it's it's cost four times as much to get a container of shoes here and the container takes twice as long to get here, and so we're just not going to have the supply to hit our original guidance and and Nikes better this than a lot of other people so it's a. [35:41] Pretty prominent problem and then there's all these secondary impacts right so you mentioned the math of the container right like you'd like to fill up that 40-foot container with Goods if your goods only take up 90%. Ordinarily you'd put someone else's Goods in the last 10% to try to make it more. Cost effective and efficient and share those costs but when the unloading is so gummed up what you don't want to do is have a secondary process where that container comes off the boat has to get re packed your stuff goes One Way their stuff goes another way, so people are actually shipping containers less full than they normally would which is entirely counterintuitive for what you would expect. The boats are all slowing down because they can use less gas to come here and 80 days then to come here in 40 days because there's no place to unload them. Um and the the supply chain guys I'm like we've been helping a lot of retailers hire truckers lately and they kind of summarize it real simply like the average commercial truck driver was 55 years old with multiple comorbidities a bunch of them. Retired and all the trucking schools that can teach people to get these licenses shut down for covid so there were no new licenses being issued for like. [36:54] Year and so there's just this this huge acute problem. And then you know without those truck drivers with the train problems and Barge problems of your on the Mississippi there's just like no place to move all those goods. You mentioned people are moving the boats from from some ports to secondary ports. That helps somewhat but the biggest cargo ships can't even fit in these ports right so I Long Beach the one of the most advanced Sports we have certainly the most advanced on the West Coast, um [37:27] Can't take the two biggest class of ships it can only take the third biggest class of ships and then as soon as you divert that ship to Portland instead of Long Beach. The the that class of ships won't won't fit there and so like there's there's a limited option to just move the stuff around so we're just we're gummed up like never before and most scary of all Gap and their earnings call kind of said like Hey we're loading our guidance and we're going to very lumpy inventory and we don't see any alleviation of these inventory challenges until at least 2020 3. Scot: [38:06] Yeah in the Auto World we're having a huge problem here where there's a chip shortage and then. [38:14] Another problem is you spend down these factories they don't just get spun back up because all the component parts are you know they stop ordering them and then those factories and everything so so even as chips are starting to come in a lot of vehicles can't be made because there's some other component that now is stuck in one of these containers that that were talking about I read this other interesting article where Coca-Cola has several of their bottling facilities that are down waiting on replacement parts so they went and basically least 20 or 40 bulk ships they didn't even worry about getting containers and they just jumped onto those ships the pieces they need to make their factories work and and are bring him over in this kind of crazy never done before way for a big company. Jason: [38:58] Yeah and I guess that that's one last point on this supply chain thing. It definitely is favoring the biggest players in every industry right so if you're the you know the biggest receivers of goods in the US. You're still being impacted by all of this but you're first in line for what capacity does exist and you you mentioned the games that the Brokers are playing with the price of containers that's going to happen a lot more to the independent shipper than it is the you know number one or number two shipper for that port and so. Well this this is a pain for every retailer in America it's going to be less painful to Walmart and Amazon then it's going to be to the, the medium-sized specialty retailer for. [39:49] And I was just going to point out I think you saw this as well as got but like Salesforce kind of put together a holiday forecast and they looked at all these supply chain problems and they're estimating, that this is going to add about 233 billion dollars in extra supply chain cost to holiday sales for the US so that's. Going to come like straight out of margins basically or or drive more inflation. Scot: [40:13] Yeah that's for the products to get here there's this another side of that equation where which is the opportunity cost right because you know. There's not gonna be a lot of exciting merchandise on the Shelf so we're what's opportunity cost of that we'll have to kind of. We'll get to that I guess we talked about forecast so what what holiday behaviors are feeding into this. Jason: [40:34] Yeah so tricky this one is there wild swings both ways right so you think if you remember at the beginning of covid there. Fundamental changes that happen people spend a lot less on travel they spend a lot less on restaurants they spend a lot more on their homes and they spent a lot more grocery stores right and so then as, people got more comfortable as people start getting vaccinated as infection rates are going down we started seeing all those things swing back right and you started seeing, a lot more bookings that are being be you saw a lot more Airline reservations you saw a lot more traffic coming to stores and you certainly saw a lot more people going back to restaurants. Then Delta hit. And we saw a dip again and people started returning to the the the kind of earlier covid behaviors not as dramatically as the first wave. [41:25] You kind of had a second wave and so predicting which of those, behaviors are going to be at the at the peak for holiday is really hard right now so retailers are looking at consumer sentiment and Doug mcmillon in his investor call he's like hey. Our consumer has told a strongly they want to have a normal holiday that they want to sit down with their family and have a meal, they want to travel they want to do the normal things and there's a strong desire and that if it is remotely safe they will do it and Doug's I kind of under his breath comment was. [42:05] Even if it's not safe they're probably going to do it right so, his viewing is there's there's so much fatigue in all of these like covid change behaviors that were going to see a significant return, you know closer to pre covid behaviors but you know we are we are seeing some signs go the other way, in the u.s. store traffic never fully recovered we are still down about ten percent versus pretty covid levels in China store traffic totally recovered and then Delta hit and store traffic drop back down, 30% below pre-pandemic levels and so since China has historically been about 4 months ahead of us. That that would predict that we're going to see another drop in. Um store traffic which again doesn't mean people won't spend it means they're going to buy more online instead of in store and that exacerbates all of The Last Mile problems that we talked about last year and we're going to talk about it. [43:09] Again this year so it's really risky to predict. What's going to happen with the coded behaviors people were starting to buy a lot of clothes again after having not buying clothes in here and now the closed sales are slowing down and then we talked about. Apparel is one of the categories most impacted by all these supply chain issues so there just may not be close to buy and so really hard to predict that stuff. Um but what I can tell you is retailers now have a couple of reasons to desperately get you to shop earlier right one reason is they're not going to have very much stuff and they don't want to be the Grinch that caused you to miss Christmas so they desperately want you to come in early, and give yourself the best chance to get the stuff you want so, the every retailer is more loudly than ever before trying to incentivise and entice customers to shop early. [44:03] Also if this ends up being another digital Christmas where people shop a lot more online than they do in stores, we have a huge problem with the last mile we don't have enough capacity in FedEx ups and u.s. post office to deliver twice as many packages over holiday, and so we need to spread that those those orders out over more days and so for all of those reasons we're seeing retailers start their sales earlier than ever so. To kind of paint you a promotional picture Amazon Prime day normally is in summer it historically celebrated Amazon's birthday which is in July. So then the pandemic kids they can't have a July sale so they have an October sale and it went really well. So this year they went back to Summer but they went to earlier summer they had the sale in June and a lot of us think they did it earlier in June for one of two reasons either they hate their own C fo and wanted him to have to talk. On earnings calls about the sale being in a different quarter every year for the last three years or. They were having a sale earlier to make room for a second big sale they intend to have this year during holiday to kind of repeat the success of. [45:11] Of holiday Prime Day last year and we haven't seen any all the announcements yet but Amazon has already announced a 30 day. Beauty and personal care sale starting in October of this year Target match that and said hey we're going to start our deal days in October, and we're price-matching for the whole holiday so if if you don't believe us and you think we're just making a joke about these early sales and you think there's going to be better sales waiter know if you buy it early will guarantee you, that will match any lower prices that you see anywhere for the rest of holiday so targets leaning heavily into that. And we think most retailers are going to launch their sales. Earlier than ever before to try to pull in these these early Shoppers because of all the supply chain and inflation issues. The sales aren't going to be as good as they usually are like that what used to be 40 percent off is going to be 25% off but what deals they do have are going to be earlier in the year to try to drive those, those sales earlier. [46:21] And people aren't going to get everything they want they're going to be limited inventory and so what's going to happen people are going to get more gift cards people are going to celebrate the holiday later and we're going to sell more stuff in January January is always a good holiday month anyway but January is going to be disproportionately large this year because of the lumpy supply chain think so, if you think of holiday as generally like being a strong peak in October between that that the kind of turkey five, this holiday more than ever before that spending starting in October and is going to last all the way through January. Scot: [46:58] And then as we get to the last mile we're definitely have another ship again so we've got we haven't increased our capacity hardly any because you can't really buy Vans and the everyone's renting Vans and there's just this fixed number of biliary vehicles and if we're going to have this Less store traffic even more e-commerce than last year even if you throw you know maybe. [47:23] Low middle digit low single digits on there like five or 7% or something well we effectively had 98, we can only deliver like 97% of the packages last year so it's going to make it a now will only be a little deliver maybe 90% of the packages so it's going to be really tough delivery, set up coming into the holiday. Jason: [47:46] I think the like some data points I saw the that are alarming like so number one. All the Fulfillment centers have an average turnover rate of like four hundred percent a year right so they're having a hard time hiring people and keeping people. FedEx in their earnings call said that like we just can't staff some of our distribution hubs so we're having to reroute packages in a less efficient manner, because for example we only have sixty percent of our labor force in our Portland Hub right so ordinarily they would try to, be at a hundred and twenty percent of their labor in these hubs for holiday with all this seasonal labor and this year. [48:24] They can't even fulfill all the permanent jobs they have so there's not going to be a seasonal Flex. For the main carriers you know the Retailer's do a lot of seasonal hiring for stores but they're prioritizing the seasonal hiring for their fulfillment centers over the stores because they're so. Worried about enough labor to fulfill all these packages and then you know when when FedEx and UPS have less capacity. What do they do they smartly charge more for it so we've seen gas surcharges we've seen holiday surcharges and and they're now announcing their rate hikes for January and FedEx announced the largest rate hike they've had in the last ten years so on average, it's almost six percent as 5.9 percent rate hike it varies wildly depending on the class of service so some kinds of shippers are going to get hit much harder. Um and just like last year all of the the big shippers have a quota and they're not going to be allowed to ship more more packages. The maybe one silver lining in this is that. Because readers are likely to be more successful in spreading the demand out this year than last year that's going to help a little bit and. [49:37] As a as challenges everyone's going to be with the capacity last year there were political challenges that that particularly got the US Post Office sideways which is a big part of this whole chain. And they don't anticipate that that will be as bad this year and so there is absolutely going to be ship again in 2.0 this year with the, the The Last Mile but the most of the analysts I'm talking to are saying the first mile is going to be so disrupted this year that the last mile is going to seem. Less severe in comparison whereas last year the the holiday challenges were all about the last mile. Scot: [50:16] Yeah and you know the double-edged sword of there not being enough product is maybe there just won't be enough product and it won't you should be getting but if whatever there is is going to get jammed up I think. Jason: [50:29] Yeah so that's a great transition to so like that's a lot of Doom and Gloom what's going to happen for Holiday should we all be shorting the retail stocks like what's. What's going to happen. And spoiler alert I don't know well we'll talk a little bit about our educated guesses but maybe before we do we can walk through some of the the forecast from the the brave souls that have been willing to share their holiday forecast. Scot: [50:56] Yeah the one the one I saw was from Salesforce and they, they say that e-commerce is going to be up 7% versus kind of that huge surge last year which was like you know fifty percent so they're coming in kind of with a moderate 7% growth which which is done yeah I think that would be the probably the slowest e-commerce growth since 2008-2009 yeah. Jason: [51:24] 2008. Scot: [51:26] Yeah that's that's the one I was tracking and you know when I read through the bullet points it made sense they're definitely putting a pretty wet blanket on things due to the this kind of quote-unquote Supply pain. Jason: [51:38] Yeah and it is tricky so they were the only one I've seen that's done an e-commerce forecast right and I would say that's the most uncertain because. Of we just don't know whether people are going to go back to stores or whether they're going to be worried about health and ordering online when they start having constrained. Um supplies is that gonna. Push them to online more because they can hunt more places or is that going to entice them to go to the store because they can use their eyes to see the inventory for themselves like there's, there's a lot of variability in that e-commerce number but I would remind people even as low as 7 percent sounds its. 7% on top of the huge bases from last year right so it's it's that's not a decline in e-commerce by any means that's a slowing of the increase just as a reminder for. People. But then I did see several like of the other the kind of traditional Consultants put together an overall holiday forecast right so beIN predicted that they were going to they thought holiday was going to be up seven percent from last year. [52:45] Deloitte said that they thought holiday was going to be up between seven and nine percent from last year. And MasterCard said they think holidays going to be up 7.4 percent from last year so. To put all three of those numbers in context those are all huge numbers. Um last year was the best holiday year in 10 years and sales were up 10% but the average is about 6% so saying we're going to grow if. You know these three things kind of all averaged out to about seven percent growth if we're here we go. If all holiday store an e-commerce gross 7% on top of the ten percent from last year, that's a phenomenal holiday and so that says, that these guys are pretty confident that the consumer is going to spend even if they can't find exactly what they want right that the supply chain is going to be painful but that the all the macroeconomic stuff we talked about at the beginning is going to win out and consumers are going to spend a lot of money this holiday I. [53:49] I want to believe this I'm going to be pleasantly surprised if it plays out like that right and my um, the the one caveat I'll say is that us retail is incredibly Diversified right and so for every category that's going to get shellacked by the supply chain or by changes in covid behaviors. Some other category is going to benefit right and so. It is true that the holiday could absolutely hit these numbers like I'll remind people that cars are 25 percent of retail sales gas is another huge chunk of retail sales. Some of these forecasts have those things in some don't some of these forecasts are for November and December some are for November December and January like everybody has a different definition of retail and a different definition of holiday so, you can't really apples-to-apples any of these but I pulled all the US Department of Commerce data and again last year November through January 10 percent growth, average of the last ten 10 years is about 6% growth so 7% growth is a. A terrific number and. I don't know I could see it happening if it happens it's going to be because there was a we had the most Monster January ever because I just don't think there's going to be enough Goods on the Shelf in November and December to do. Scot: [55:17] Yeah I'll take a so I think the winners are going to be the companies that have the most power and smartest supply chain operators so I think Walmart and Amazon. Maybe Target I don't know them as well do they have a you think they feel like they have a pretty dialed in. Jason: [55:33] They Walmart and Target both in their earnings said like look our inventory isn't going to be isn't where we want it it's not going to be where we want it but we we in general are feeling good and neither one lowered its guidance for holiday in their last earnings call so they both felt that they were going to weather the storm but you know below that you go look at like a Bed Bath and Beyond and they're like look there's no way we can hit our numbers with the supply we're gonna get. Scot: [56:00] Will they miss this quarter and if you miss this quarter you're just going to get worse the next quarter Seth. Jason: [56:04] Exactly exactly. Scot: [56:06] It's a poop storm now and it's gonna be a bloodbath and in 90 days yes I think I think if I kind of do the calculus on that I think those three guys win I think everyone else is net negative and. You know I don't think those three are big enough let's say they represent Amazon's kind of half of e-commerce only think about e-commerce the rest of retail is. That's your bailiwick yeah Amazon's half, yeah I could see it being flat to down five percent because. Amazon Walmart and Target doing decent isn't it be enough for to make up for the whole that it's created there so yeah so that's kind of, where I see it it's going to be the big get bigger and stronger and because they you know they have Prime, they have more technologies that this has been on their radar longer they have more containers they have more trucks they have more dollars to spend on solving these problems they're going to be the winners so that's going to be you know it is going to be I think a bad year for the small medium sized business the incumbent brands that are just getting their legs under them and you know having to kind of have a Miss effectively miss a holiday because you couldn't get a bunch of product it's going to be be a rough rough year for everybody. Jason: [57:25] Yeah no I in a way it's going to be the exact opposite of last year when covid first hit nobody obviously had Advance warning or was prepared for this and so a secondary impact was a bunch of eCommerce sites that didn't traditionally get a lot of consumer visits, got a lot of Trials because Amazon constrained FBA in Amazon head supply chain problems right and so suddenly you were looking to get your instant pot from Bed Bath & Beyond suddenly a bunch of people are looking to see what eBay had, that hasn't shopped eBay in five or ten years right so a lot of those kind of second-tier eCommerce sites got extra visits as people were. Trying new address the supply chain shortages this year I think we're going to have exactly the opposite there's going to be a ton of supply chain shortages there's going to be a lot of, news stories every day about supply chain shortages and the big players with the best infrastructure in the most advanced supply chain planning, like the Amazons and Walmarts of the world and and targets, are going to be the winners and it's going to be a lot harder for those specialty retailers and Regional retailers to compete unfortunately. Scot: [58:41] Yeah I think that that is the setup and we will continue so that hopefully that gives everyone an idea of the big talk in the industry and you were just at an industry event is this what everyone was talking about Jason. Jason: [58:55] Yeah yeah slightly less than I would have expected I mean it was a huge topic everyone understands the supply chain thing. I do think it was the first conversation a lot of you know customer experience folks and people that you know we're kind of had their head down in their own in their own Silo you know we're suddenly getting their eyes open to the fact that like. Yeah your customer experience is going to stink at there's no products on the. Scot: [59:20] Mix the CX person's job a lot easier they just you know just take the holiday off. Jason: [59:26] Yeah and so you know it is interesting though again like. [59:31] You know we may we may hit the top line numbers and it may be from a lot less items that sold more expensively. The you know category there's going to be winning and losing categories by far and again because of the consumer health and the supply chain issues, the supply chain for diamonds is looking a lot better than the supply chain for Budget shoes and so you know you just may see what jury where you know you say you sell a few things for a while, do better you know where there's extra scarcity then you know some of these low-margin high-volume consumer goods and so I think. [1:00:08] My key takeaways for everyone is it's going to be a very lumpy like the averages will be interesting we should all follow them but but every. Um retailer and every category is going to experience a very different holiday and there just is more uncertainty than there has been in the last 30 years of retail so like for anyone, to definitively say this is how it is going to play out I think is super risky because there's so many things that could go either way at this point, will consumers you know by another toy when they can't get their first choice will consumers go to a restaurant you know or not will consumers take a vacation or not. You know all of these these will they pay 5% more for something or not like there's just so much uncertainty that you know this is going to be. Holiday that really rewards people that do good scenario planning and are prepared for any eventuality. Scot: [1:01:06] Absolutely and we will keep you posted here on the Jason Scott show but hopefully this gives everyone kind of a framework to work within and we'll be updating various components of the supply pain as we get closer to Holiday. Jason: [1:01:22] And until next week happy commercing!
On episode 22 I do a little check in with my first ever guest… Jenn from The Book Refuge!The Book Refuge Merch Shop… my-store-b94533.creator-spring.comJenn's Amazon Storefront… www.amazon.com/shop/thebookrefugeJenn on YouTube… https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxV4h6pmpKH53gkj4-iERtAJenn on Instagram… https://www.instagram.com/jennmarsh18/Jenn on GoodReads… https://www.goodreads.com/user/show/14949982-jenn-the-book-refugeJenn's Channel Memberships… https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxV4...Jenn's Discord… https://discord.gg/Np52QF8DVaJenn's LinkTree… https://linktr.ee/TheBookRefugeJenn's Literary Enchantments Discount Code… Jenn10Books Mentioned:Never Seduce a Scot… https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13360101-never-seduce-a-scot?ac=1&from_search=true&qid=Q96n8KEGLm&rank=1Annie's Song… https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/659600.Annie_s_Song?ac=1&from_search=true&qid=BqfJfjLTWX&rank=1Secrets of a Summer Night… https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/114162.Secrets_of_a_Summer_Night?ac=1&from_search=true&qid=qeEtce6aLS&rank=1Carnal Urges… https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/57101782-carnal-urges?ac=1&from_search=true&qid=40rxiY5X1E&rank=1Morning Glory… https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/987577.Morning_Glory?ac=1&from_search=true&qid=R36t9WLXvq&rank=1Psycho… https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/58470435-psychoUntouchable… https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/40660802-untouchable?ac=1&from_search=true&qid=XOn5BN0u7n&rank=1First In… https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/53267419-first-in?ac=1&from_search=true&qid=jgAbd54YSY&rank=1It Ain't Me Babe… https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/22020052-it-ain-t-me-babe?ac=1&from_search=true&qid=J6lTqqThBe&rank=1Deliver… https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/20931902-deliver
(00:00-8:04): Brian and Aubrey discussed Kara Bettis' Christianity Today article, “Gary Chapman Doesn't Know He's Famous.” (8:04-26:05): Dr. Scot McKnight, Professor of New Testament at Northern Seminary and Coauthor of “A Church Called Tov: Forming a Goodness Culture That Resists Abuses of Power and Promotes Healing,” joined Brian and Aubrey to talk about his new book, “Five Things Biblical Scholars Wish Theologians Knew.” and his blog post, “A Word for Ministry During this Pandemic.” Learn more about Scot and his books at his blog, Jesus Creed and connect with him on Twitter at @scotmcknight (26:05-42:36): Dr. Gregory Jantz, Best-selling Author, Speaker, and Founder of The Center • A Place of HOPE, joined Brian and Aubrey to talk about his books, “So Much to Live For: How to Provide Help and Hope to Someone Considering Suicide,” and “The Anxiety Reset.” Learn more about Dr. Jantz and his books at drgregoryjantz.com and connect with him on Twitter at @GregoryJantzPhD And learn more about The Center at aplaceofhope.com (42:36-53:06): Brian and Aubrey shared their TOP FIVE Dream Jobs. Aubrey's #1 pick was a Music Supervisor and Brian's #1 pick was a Barber. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The hilarious Screenwriter behind your favorite movies like Old School, Semi Pro, The Hangover: Part II, Road Trip, and DICE, is our new best friend! This Bears super fan had Claudia and Kate cracking up while discussing why he will never become a Beekeeper- as well as other career insights. Scot is as hilarious as he is kind and did not turn down an invitation to pick crabs on the back porch. You are going to love this episode with the iconic Scot Armstrong!
Welcome to Episode 146 of the Worship Leader Probs Podcast! You are going to love this episode with Brian, Jen, and Scot - So get ready to laugh and be equipped in your life & ministry! Brian, Jen, and Scot unpack the AW Scale and ways it can be an effective tool for you and your teams to choose & plan songs for your worship sets. They also share an absolutely unbelievable round of Prayer Concerns that are sure to leave you cracking up laughing! Check it out - and like, comment, subscribe, and share with a friend! Learn more and stay connected with >>> Worship Leader Probs (instagram.com/worshipleaderprobs) // Brian Tabor (instagram.com/briantabor) // Jen Smale (instagram.com/jensmale) // Scot Longyear (instagram.com/scotlongyear) Special thank you to our friends at Maven Media Productions for editing the podcast [Follow @mavenmediaproductions and visit www.mavenmediaproductions.com], and our great friend Scott Hoke for the voiceover intro [Visit www.scotthokevoice.com].
www.facebook.com/Subduction.Audio twitter.com/subductionaudio www.instagram.com/subductionaudio/ www.subductionaudio.com Scot Free Summer 2021 Mix 01. Take What You Want - V O E 02. Hypersonic - High Maintenance & AL/SO 03. Last Jungle - Sub Focus (Camo & Krooked & Mefjus Remix) 04. Shine - Teddy Killerz (Moekel Remix) 05. North Star - SyRan 06. Gold Dust - DJ Fresh (TC Remix) 07. VIP Sound - Ed Solo feat. General Levy (Benny Page Remix) 08. Ragga Bomb - Skrillex (Teddy Killerz Remix) 09. Stop The Clock - Whiney 10. Burnt Ends - Kings of the Rollers (Circuits Rewire) 11. Waiting 4 U - Cyantific & BLVCK CROWZ 12. Airplane - Sub Focus (Culture Shock Remix) 13. Hexagram - Mountain 14. Come Catch Me - Kleu 15. Guitar Dub - SyRan 16. Run Underwater - Toronto is Broken & Aktive feat. MZKA 17. Offensive - Aggressor Bunx 18. Better On My Own - Mollie Collins & Bella Penfold (Levela Remix) Scot Free - PDX Subduction Audio, Freshmode www.facebook.com/djscotfree @scotfree503
In the aftermath of Hurricane Ida, one of the most devastating hurricanes to ever make landfall in Louisiana, Simone and Jacques discuss ongoing impacts to communities and how people can help those in need. They also welcome Scot Pilié, EDF senior communications specialist and meteorologist, to discuss the extent of Ida's impacts and why it was so destructive from a meteorological standpoint. Please visit MississippiRiverDelta.org/Ida to support organizations doing work in Louisiana to help those in need.
Dr. Scot Gray is a serial entrepreneur who has built and sold multiple successful chiropractic and decompression practices. Currently, he is the CEO of Ohio Integrated Pain & Wellness Centers, as well as Gray Marketing Enterprises, a digital marketing agency for small businesses. He has helped start stem cell clinics in multiple states across the US and is also a Partner at Regenerative Health Centers of Florida. Dr. Gray is the host of the Top Minds podcast and the author of the book Good Back, Bad Back. He has been featured on NBC, ABC, and more to share his knowledge of eliminating back pain, neck pain, and headaches. In this episode… What is the key to creating a business that outlasts its founder? How can you build a brand that will be just as prominent in 50 years as it is today? The answers may lie with one of the most famous companies in the world: Disney. When Dr. Scot Gray was first building his business, he knew he wanted the eventual freedom to step away from its day-to-day operations. To learn the business strategies necessary to achieve this goal, he looked to the world-renowned Founder and CEO, Walt Disney. As Dr. Gray says, the key to Walt's success was his ability to delegate his business operations and spend more time focusing on the ideas that made his company a global phenomenon. So, how did Dr. Gray apply this method to his clinics — and how can you do the same at your company? Dr. Scot Gray joins Dan Kuschell in this episode of Growth to Freedom to talk about the key to building a long-lasting, one-of-a-kind brand. Dr. Gray shares the lessons he learned from Walt Disney that helped him build a successful business, the systems he implemented to distinguish his brand, and how he achieved greater freedom as an entrepreneur. Stay tuned.
Joe Madison and Dr. Scot Brown of UCLA teach you about the amazing history and influence of funk music.・・・ Catch Dr. Brown's upcoming lecture 'Word Up' Funk and R&B Bands and Cultural Politics of the 'Old School' on September 16 at 5:30 PM pacific time: https://afam.clas.ufl.edu/event/word-up-funk-and-rb-bands-and-cultural-politics-of-the-old-school
Welcome to Episode 144 of the Worship Leader Probs Podcast! Brian, Jen, and Scot are LIVE from Experience Conference 2021 at Disney's Coronado Springs Resort in Orlando, FL recording with a tremendous audience! Jump into this episode - You'll hear great encouragement & wisdom, tons of laughter with some crazy prayer concerns, and dive into our segment, Sliding Into the DMs, as the WLP crew answers questies live from the audience. Check it out - and like, comment, subscribe, and share with a friend! Learn more and stay connected with >>> Worship Leader Probs (instagram.com/worshipleaderprobs) // Brian Tabor (instagram.com/briantabor) // Scot Longyear (instagram.com/scotlongyear) // Jen Smale (instagram.com/jensmale) // Experience Conference (instagram.com/experienceconference) Special thank you to our friends at Maven Media Productions for editing the podcast [Follow instagram.com/mavenmediaproductions and visit www.mavenmediaproductions.com], and our great friend Scott Hoke for the voiceover intro [Visit www.scotthokevoice.com].
Dental crowns are notoriously expensive and a hassle to have installed. Say one were to fall out and you accidentally swallowed it, what would you do? Scot, Troy, and Mitch brainstorm foreign object retrieval methods and learn when you should go to the ER if you swallow something you shouldn't.
In the aftermath of Hurricane Ida, one of the most devastating hurricanes to ever make landfall in Louisiana, Simone and Jacques discuss ongoing impacts to communities and how people can help those in need. They also welcome Scot Pilié, EDF senior communications specialist and meteorologist, to discuss the extent of Ida's impacts and why it was so destructive from a meteorological standpoint. Please visit MississippiRiverDelta.org/Ida to support organizations doing work in Louisiana to help those in need.
Scot McCloughan is formerly the general manager of the San Francisco 49ers and Washington Football Team, as well as a senior personnel executive for the Seattle Seahawks, helping them reach the Super Bowl. Scot and The Professor sit down this week to discuss the biggest storylines ahead of Week 1 in the NFL. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
EP275 - Mickey Drexler on DTC Mickey Drexler is the former CEO of Ann Taylor, The Gap, J. Crew, and is a former board member of Apple and Warby Parker. He is currently the CEO of Alex Mill, a digitally native vertical brand, founded by his son Alex Drexler. He has been dubbed the “Merchant Prince” for his successful turn around of Ann Taylor, and his dramatic transformation of The Gap. In this broad ranging interview, we cover his distinguished career, his opinion about the recent direct to consumer trends, and much more. The interview is full of juicy tidbits including: Getting kicked out of a Levi's meeting after turning The Gap into a vertical integrated brand with its' own label. His efforts to sell J. Crew to Amazon. He turned down Steve Jobs first request to serve on the Apple Board of Directors, and how he later helped Steve and Ron design the Apple retail store. Steve Jobs desire to be a direct to consumer brand. The pros and cons of intuition versus data to select merchandise. His cameo on Breaking Bad. How Old Navy was partially inspired by Targets early private label efforts. And much more Episode 275 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Wednesday September 8th, 2021. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 275 being recorded on Wednesday September 8th 2021 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:39] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason and Scot show listeners. Jason last week we did a deep dive into the Warby Parker and all boobs s-1 filings which was a lot of fun and we got a lot of really good conversation out there with listeners talking about digitally native vertical Brands and we thought you know who could we bring on that keep this conversation going who has experience with wholesale Brands retailers in a vertically integrated d2c brand I'm pretty sure there's only one person in our industry that checks all those boxes and it is industry luminary Mickey Drexler we are very excited to have Mickey on the show Welcome Mickey. Mickey: [1:19] Thank you for having me and I'm excited to be here. Jason: [1:23] Oh my gosh Mickey we are we are thrilled to chat with you I'm eager to get into all the juicy topics going on in the industry and kind of cover your background but we have to start with the most important thing first and you may not know this Mickey but Scott as very successful in the e-commerce industry and he's invested a lot of his earnings from that industry into the car wash industry and. The reason I bring this up is because you you have famously been on the TV Show Breaking Bad. And I think that Scott is basically the plot for Breaking Bad is that. Scot: [2:05] Yeah I'm sitting on pallets of cash right now. Mickey: [2:08] One of the highlights of my life nine takes but it was really a lot of fun and I love that show. Scot: [2:17] It is a it is a great one. Jason: [2:19] One of the best shows on TV. Yeah so yeah we could probably do a whole show about breaking bad which I'm going to resist the temptation so, Mickey normally we start up the show by letting the guest kind of tell us a little bit about their background that could be tricky in your case because a lot of us orders probably know some of the highlights of your background and your backgrounds amazing but like when you meet someone that doesn't know you like how do you describe your career. Mickey: [2:50] Well I say I'm a retailer and I leave it at that, no reason to go further sometimes people after the fact say gee I didn't know you are who you are and cetera but if they want to know then maybe answer some specific questions, but I don't give them my resume. Jason: [3:16] Nice well for the sake of our listeners I am going to break it down a little bit although I appreciate the the humility of it and you you tell me if I have a ride but like you grew up in the Northeast and and started your career in the apparel industry so you work for a bunch of storied apparel retailers Abrams and Strauss Macy's Bloomingdale's and if I ever write your first big job that I don't think that many people remember is you were the CEO at Ann Taylor. Mickey: [3:51] Yes by the way the Northeast means the Bronx to move is that was very special in my life so that's who I grew up. And my first after the three I had joined say Bloomingdale's then briefly Macy's, Then I then I decided I did not want to work in the department store business anymore and I was fortunate enough to, become CEO banjo which is a tiny company losing a lot of money owned by a larger company that happened on Brooks Brothers and probably never heard of the other companies who spoke to March around anymore, and I did that for four years and we were then taken over by big bureaucratic department store, and I decided I was never more disappointed at that point in my life I was a pretty young guy, and I wanted to leave because they didn't appreciate the business we were in it was all about bureaucracy was Alex Stewart. Who then eventually like to play towards I'm not sure who they bought but so I left I left a mess a mess I left it in Taylor. And moved to Gap in San Francisco. Jason: [5:14] Yep and then for other young kids listening to the podcast Gap is going to sound like this famous iconic brand but when you joined in the late 80s um they haven't may be achieved all of their success yet and so like, frankly you you are traded in for being that the CEO that led this, enormous expansion and growth both financially and in terms of popular awareness of the Gap and I want to say you, you watched a couple of the Gap Brands like Old Navy and Gap Kids and somewhat relevant to the conversations we have on this show a lot I think you made a pretty significant decision to take Gap from being a wholesaler that sold a fair amount of other people's Goods to a vertically integrated brand that primarily focused on making your own goods and selling them direct to Consumers through your stores do I have that right. Mickey: [6:09] Yeah yeah correct I joined Gap you don't mind if I correct details I join Gap, at the end of 1983, which is then it started as a hundred percent Levi's company they only bought from Levi's and then when I got there was about one-third of their business was Levi's, and long story short, I learned in my retail life than especially having worked alongside Brooks Brothers which was at the beginning of the decline Franklin, in the mid-80s but they were they own their label and they didn't sell wholesale them, and they did not have to worry about competitors etc etc and going on sale. [7:05] They also with the highest profit company in a relatively small conglomerate of retailers and the reason was their margins were very high. Because again they weren't dealing with competitive sales my department store experience was the opposite, if you're in buying wholesale someone else will put the goods on sale and of course today you know 30 years later plus it's the standard. [7:35] And so I decided when I got to Ann Taylor. [7:39] To own our own label over time I didn't want to deal with competitors who have the same Goods as we did and we did, to consumer or whatever you call it today and that was in 1980 1980, 1970 actually 74 5 trans legally 1980 exactly I joined them in 1980 so when I hear about direct-to-consumer today being the new heart area, it's been there has been a number of your few of us who did it, and through a profit point of view it was the only way I wanted to go not want to buy wholesale we, leave ours ironically after nearer to kick this out because they said we were copying them I'll never forget the lunch was a long boring lunch in San Francisco, and I said after I said they should have told us that right at the beginning so we didn't have to go through this long boring lunch when they when they then said would not sell you anymore well frankly I didn't really care and when you have news like that, you figure it out better than you don't have these like, so we stopped being buying wholesale from Levi's and great brand virus they were no hugely monstrous plan, and we did it on their own but that was fine and that's how it began. Jason: [9:08] That's amazing and I'm totally with you it's I talked to all these young entrepreneurs that just started a new direct to Consumer brand and many of them are under the misguided impression that it's a new business model that they just invented. Mickey: [9:21] I know well there's a few of us then and now there are many many of us, but it is what it was it was not where you could build a business and wake up in the morning and control, your inventory and your prices when I joined the apple board in, I think years later in 1999 Steve Jobs basically felt that's what he wanted to do with apple that was his first year there. And he wanted to go direct and of course she did continue doing business with Walmart and Target and all that but he became. Direct, probably the greatest retailer ever and but you know it's a standard today and there's nothing new about it in fact it's old and it is what it is. Jason: [10:18] Yeah no I tease people that the very first merchants of all times I you know made their own rugs and sold them direct to Consumer so that's that was the first Model like wholesale is the newer the newer model. And so I do so then the next chapter is going to be J.Crew and we're going to go back and talk about some of the interesting issues that you confronted in some of these places but I do want to just highlight, I assume you still follow the Gap the, I would check out because it seems like you took them predominantly Direct in a lot of their news lately I don't know you fought it but they have a partnership with Walmart for their home goods and I just saw something today that they announced that they're going to distribute Athleta which is there they're their work out a pair of brand on this doing really well through REI so it's almost like they're it's interesting that they're now adding some wholesale back to their mix. Mickey: [11:13] Yep well each company is entitled to you know they all have a point of view they have a vision and I think that's what there is is can argue with it. Jason: [11:24] Yeah no and obviously pros and cons to all of these so then you left the Gap was it around 2000 2002 something like that. Mickey: [11:33] Yes I think I left in I think 2001 yeah yeah they say I think I left in 2001, in fact September 26 to be exact. 2001 and I started at J.Crew who's counting January I think 25th or something in 2002. Jason: [11:58] Awesome and what was the circumstances that J.Crew when you started. Mickey: [12:03] Well it was a mess a complete mess by the way I know you mentioned this but I started Old Navy I do it you probably know that story right. Jason: [12:16] No no tell us. Mickey: [12:18] Well it's an interesting story there's an article in the New York Times page 4 5. In terms of some some things I never forgot that like that and I read about Target Corporation then known as they Hudson starting a company to copy the gap. And what do you do when someone wants to copy you get emotional you get crazy and then you fly to Minneapolis to the Mall of America and say okay I want to see what it looks like. And I walked in on you say probably four minutes and I said this is way way off so I was relieved, because to me everyone would sewing machine is your competitor potential, I walked out and said you know is a big research company you know they I know they do a lot of research very successful and today more than ever, stopping Chicago on the way back to San Francisco I visited. Two stores demographics would be a price point below where Gap trailer very few me we were very much. [13:29] Not expecting, and I spoke to the store managers which you have to do in this world today you speak to who deals with customers it's like I've always done that it's my rule in any case they taught me a lot of lessons, Gap was too expensive for this area things are always on sale and I knew that I pick those tubes that low-margin stores, long story short got flew to San Francisco thinking about that, check the jeans Business 80 percent of genes in America than was sold 25 years ago sold below $30 a hundred percent of our genes are above 30 dollars, so I say this is not this is not a stupid idea, for them because we are considered a little more expensive I gave 10 of our Associates, then two hundred dollars each I assign. Them to shop certain categories: Target Walmart then you came on versions and come back. [14:39] Let's discuss it in one week they all came back bottom line is, they care about product they carry about price they couldn't care less if it ended 99 Cents 87 cents as Walmart used to do, etcetera and and right after that meeting I just said we're going to do it we're going to open up, our version of it was called everyday hero, and a few people from Jenny mean who worked at Marvin's was running for the gap, Jeff Eiffel we moved over we started with a small group to do what was then had no name. [15:23] And Don Fisher was always you know he was always pretty open about entrepreneurial stuff and I said was starting his company we didn't have a name long story short, I couldn't come up with the name I was in Paris going to the airport and I see a bar on Rue Saint Germain called Old Navy. And I said to Maggie who was with me marketing I think what a great name for a company, registered the next day in America no one had it and that was the name now of course my board didn't really like name you know but to me your name your kids you're not going to have a negotiation over what you name them, we have a negotiation I hard to naming companies that have with horrible names and later on I'll tell you how we got the Old Navy from olden days, and that was the beginning first store open whole Gap Warehouse only had three names and I said, we do this and we have no gaps in five years so then the next door is called Old Navy and that's how we started today it's about probably 80 and 90% of the earnings of the Gap Corporation I'm guessing. But tremendously successful. Jason: [16:38] Yeah that has been the tide that has lifted all the the Gap boats for a while. And yeah that that is amazing you raise something that I have to ask though because it comes up a lot I work with a lot of Brands and these days I spend a lot of time cautioning them about how good the retailers are becoming it inventing their own Brands and and their first reaction is always the same is your trip to Minneapolis like you know targets not very good at this I'm not very worried right, and I think that was absolutely true back then and in many categories it still is true but I would argue that in some categories, and Target more so than most is getting darn good at this and you look today at like cat and Jack and they're very successfully competing with with Baby Gap and and you know sort of traditional brands. Mickey: [17:30] Hundred hundred percent I totally agree but you know what you're good at and the products right. And I think their inspiration I was told was the crew cuts I don't know if that's true or not I'm not the kids business anymore and I don't pay attention, but absolutely true look if it's a vision, and and the product is right and I always say the product has to be right and in their case you know the price is right well the past its product, quality of product value and that's by the way we did oh maybe that's the story in any business right product right value. Right marketing and emotional connection to it and then we had operated retail. And the style and taste is all for us it's very important. Jason: [18:23] So then we mentioned that you you started that that January a J.Crew which was a mess at the time, and I want to say one of the things you did for J.Crew kind of mirroring the Old Navy story is launched the Madewell brand there. Mickey: [18:41] Well I did that before I join J.Crew. I bought the name Madewell from a fellow named David Mullen who was it really nice company, hear that David used to work with me in wash it was a wash consult very talented guy showed me the name before I went to J.Crew, I love the longer it's very hard to name a company and the name immediately resonated with me, and I should Wanted You by Sly can't afford it, and so I paid $125,000 for the name which you know once you finish with those naming companies which I wouldn't want to do they'll charge you a million dollars will come up and bad names no offense the main companies. But but I thought the name 1937 already it had history it had a feeling it had emotion so I bought the name and tucked it away, and when we went public when we turn Jake you around, see I was there to about three or four years to you actually turn around always starts a year and a half later and that's three years later or whenever I thought it was time to start me. [20:04] So that's what we start the username and that was unlike every day unlike the everyday hero. Target this was a this was more complicated because the Old Navy was price point or two or three below gas. [20:25] This one and I might say was the first company to get to a billion dollars in sales as fast as they did until Apple get there. So it took off like a rocket at Old Navy like a rock it was really a very nice toy and maybe well was much more difficult, we took it we had a number of different people leading it, and we just couldn't get it going the right way I made a number of mistakes in opening up. Bedroom state which knows things it was real estate wasn't on Vine and that didn't work, we just didn't get our act together for at least four years in five years, and I was really upset because I said you know this is taking away from the value of our public company so we must 15 and 20 million dollars a year which I think we were maybe 15 million a year, you know you take the multiple of the stock and all the sudden you know the company's worth three hundred million dollars less because we're starting made well, so that kind of aggravated me couldn't get rid of that aggravation way things are but then some set. [21:43] I came back to the corporation he left for you or two and he was putting to be in charge of. Male and he did an incredible job and so he and I work very closely together. And I always merchandising Missouri involved. [22:06] And he did the design and he had a vision for design I had a vision well the storefront, it was kind of a I was always inspired by I think they're still around but I'm not sure a bread bread store in the village called the suvi oh maybe, I don't know if it's still there to be the bakery yes I always loved the way the storm was so we designed a store. I kind of felt like a see it was the studio I'm just actually look at a picture again we fun and we built a really I was really pleased with the store but I was not pleased with how the business was going, and some sack pinion looking at the storefront now online beautiful store and it's beautiful store goal, and emotion, and then when he came in the rest then this is starting to take off like a rocket plus woman named Mary. Who was jeans made merry new Mary knew more veggies. [23:19] And she joined us from Jay Vernon and Mary came in. Thanks Gary Pierson and she and some set and it takes people to do it we put together we became a major genes, that was our vision the best kind of jeans that not crazy designer prices and the company took off also at some point like a lock. And that was the story of Nemo. And you know all the retail to be all the over companies to Fashion they hit a wall at times and then they come back or they don't come back, and hitting a wall is part of what goes on every company I've been involved as hit a wall at some point it's a wall in any me to save it and bring it back or it or it continues to have a hard time. Jason: [24:17] For sure the side note another company hit a wall sadly was Vesuvio which is a hundred year old Bakery in SoHo I have some good news bad news they had a Hiatus and they reopened in like 20/20 so the last and I was is in SoHo they were they were open I had not heard what has happened since the pandemic and I can imagine it wasn't a great time for them so I hope they're doing well. Mickey: [24:43] We'll check it out and we'll let you know that's cool. Jason: [24:47] Awesome so then I do want to kind of just wrap up the clear stuff and then we're going to dive in a little deeper on a few of the things that we've already talked about but so today you are Alex Mill and do you want to tell us a little bit about Alex. Mickey: [25:01] Yeah sure Alex my son or Alex. Jason: [25:03] We're both I was waiting for you to tell that yes. Mickey: [25:08] Well my son started the business in 2005 13, and he just started I was very involved and I pretty much had nothing to do with it at all which he reminded me when I started here, he says you know you don't even wear our t-shirts which were famous for. And he was right I just didn't pay any attention and I probably should have but he didn't ask me really and he was a wholesale come. And we do business it was kind of cool we had a little bit of a cult following and and I'm allergic to high prices which really gets translated as too bad value, you know I don't mind high prices in certain categories or where you get what you pay for for a you know the prices are ridiculous but you might learn from his luggage or whatever from a mess, but we designer clothes in general so he went along I went along he. [26:18] When I left J.Crew I didn't think anything about his business but when some stack. Who is he quit he had a non-compete and I was his age. So we need help I hope to get jobs in the industry part-time jobs freelance because he walked away from a very very big job, and so the day his non-compete was up, I that was the day he was a beginning of a new Alex will be in some segments and do each other, and Alex was very happy that he would find some partner and some seconds considered the founder of the company he's a major shareholder long of Alex and myself, and he joined us. [27:16] And then I was very happy kind of had a job again because I was doing stuff but not doing what I love to do which is be involved in building a company Vision etcetera, so I joined I think it was about two and a half years ago I'm not even sure the day. And we had a little tiny office which I'm now we doubled the space instead, that we start to build a business and we had a vision and a woman's and Alex and I at the beginning or I would say it wasn't a marriage made in heaven, it's the it's the come one since when and it took a lot of work and a lot of a lot of help. And we finally listening I'm going to say that he's going to listening to his mother my wife about making certain that he and I get along and I did that with him, it was like another else conversation and it's been really really nice over the last number of months but it's hard. To be with your dad and I was trying to figure out is he. Someone I work with or is he my son and it's extremely difficult and he kept dealing with me as whatever I done. [28:40] And so now he's you know he's a partner along with some set and and Hussein. And we hired a team and it's very hard to start a company I had the bank of Gap in the Bank of J.Crew in my other two startups now I didn't have their back. And so we funded us elves which in a way is really good I also do want to have for the first time in my life. Too many opinions that weren't right and that was a blessing even though you know I'm doing this for a million years, if we're right we're right if we're wrong way wrong but my best board members were always people I knew anyway not necessarily on the board. But when you have a money partner which I certainly did they think about profits they think which is nothing wrong with it but, take its long-term to build a profitable company, and when you have hit a wall you succeed if you're good at it I always had a kind of ability to. Knock down and I just get right back up and I don't stop. [30:00] But some cases that doesn't happen but here we are independent Leo and not negotiating colors or Styles or what someone else thinks we should do. We're expanding in the business is starting to really kind of take off now so I'm really excited I've always been excited. It's about the taste quality I look at the landscape out there. And I think this is not a lot of things going on that I feel or what I would say are incredibly impressive there are those winners, and you all know who they are so what I'm hearing so I think we're all excited but small you know. But that's small anymore 20 people work there and we all have like multiple jobs which is good I've say snorts growing pretty rapidly, so and you know that's our mission. Jason: [31:03] My I have a some great empathy for your son Alex I'm a fourth-generation retailer and I think I can imagine poor Alex just wanted his famous dad to wear his t-shirts and he got an activist investor instead. Mickey: [31:15] What your fourth generation retailer. Jason: [31:19] Yeah yeah my family sort of started out in the in the grocery and then later jewelry business, I did want to highlight you've referenced it a couple times that you're also you had a long stint on the board at Apple and I want to say I've been, worked with Ron Johnson the number of times and I've seen some interviews with Steve Jobs and in both cases they reference you as the the retail Savvy board member and Apple. Mickey: [31:46] I met Steve in I loved Steve idolized ski and I still love him to this day, he was extraordinary and I give very slowly thinking about the way he died went through, and to excuse me per. Steve we met what he wants he gets when he doesn't stop at anything the most seductive human being I've ever met in my life, we met at a mutual friend's birthday party in Napa Valley came up to me and we start the shoes and, you don't say what's the job so long Steve you know a niche wasn't and we're talking and he. [32:32] Got in touch with me after that asked if I would join this board, and I said no I don't like public companies now I took my schmuck anti schmuck pills after the okay, because hello is that a bad word to say she's no and I realized holy shit, and I just you know I was yeah I was on a board you know bless them family board, in other words and items on a number of other boards and I get bored very quickly on boards because that's the way I am and I need to be action busy, and I'm not a technologist I don't know much about it but. So a year later he came to me after becoming come to me and said you join my board I will join Apples by Gap store, well Steve hate Sports also, but he and I said deal why because God will he be amazing on the board, just as a factor of not going along with everything already. [33:50] And he became a pain in the ass to the number of people who isn't always on Tiny going and what's up this kind of but he privately we had a really nice strong relationship. And she joined the board I would say made a few enemies on the board because he whatever he thinks he says that's it he says. And and sometimes he says it doesn't make people happy so so that's essentially what happened so in any case I join these board. And first thing he wanted me to do was to design a store. [34:31] And we had a really bad looking store and that he designed and then we got a warehouse which we used to do with my old company, and we got a warehouse you designed a brand new store in the warehouse p.m. for 5,000 square feet and. The store was really good-looking that's basically what happens students are today simple it showed off the price. And it wasn't a story that was czechia where the product was competing with the design and that was our first Apple Store, and then after that I just you know he asked me about color of iPods he always want to review the colors Etc. You know it's like you're 16 years and lives through extraordinary success and you know appreciate it I don't know you and appreciate it well he was alive and well. But just I just always you know he went to the meetings he started every single meeting for it spent most of his time on the. [35:46] And you don't find that many people and many companies they spend most of their time necessary not on product that was steamed on product, things tough he was titled in an infant in a good way in my mind you know Obama didn't call him back, one morning he wanted to President Obama to launch the first iPhone he was Furious Obama didn't get that I'll never forget that, he says how do you not call me back like this light in four hours Al Gore was on the boy houses Steve I'll get him to call you back whatever. [36:24] You know Obama told and back when you had a minute came back and says he's going to launch the iPhone pushing never did but that's what Steve wanted to believe anyway amazing amazing run, an amazing person he and Johnny I everyday had lunch and every day was you know what's the future going to hold. For apple and he the other thing he did, is he kind of made me for sure and numbers feel stupid at the end of a board meeting I wasn't in technology guys sometimes I'd say something that you look the righteousness gee how can I say that, and then you can bury yourself and say oh I don't want to disappoint Steve yeah but he was to me was a special unique gift to the world. And I miss him and I think the world misses in today. Scot: [37:18] Absolutely, because I'm the entrepreneur on the program Jason has a fancy corporate job and a title that has more words that I can keep track of the so you've been a successful entrepreneur for decades what advice would you give to an aspiring entrepreneur listening to the show like what are, distill down some of the things you've learned through there. Mickey: [37:36] I was explaining to him that every single day this we haven't really nice marketing business we do well but every day I come to work. And I reach for the sky. [37:52] And I'm trying to explain that no matter what we're doing oh he also time says I'm too critical of things or people or whatever and I said you know Alex everyday. I come to work I said every day you come to work I come to work and I look for what. Could be better not for what you write and I think a lot of people have a hard time with that vision is, where you going how you get there with the unknowns is critical, so people say well how do you do this that and the other thing and I said I had a photograph of what Gap should be I didn't in Maine. I didn't J.Crew and I actually I did yet in J.Crew and I didn't Old Navy and I didn't so I had a photograph in my mind we get sale in one Business book. Because it was actually misses you by I had to do with those. [38:56] That didn't work but yet not them to get up into the skill set whose huge toes. What you need to do and I can't speak about Instinct in other areas but I think Instinct judgment. Seeing around corners where they say skate to where the puck is going. Is extremely important in the fashion business and knowing when to go knowing when to stop when things slow down extremely. [39:30] Picking the right team is something rules that rules but got to pick the right partners and when you make a mistake in a partnership and so many of us don't do this for cleanup face up to you but. [39:46] And do something of that. You know and the bigger companies are no longer into the smaller company like this. About your all living together and it doesn't take long and when you're writing your own checks, that's a big difference when you're writing your own checks which I know most people probably don't have the ability to do, it's very different than the private Equity the joint venture etc etc but he country each business, as if you own it it's your money in and that's part of it and then you know we will passion, I say leadership curiosity I think anyone was not curious in my mind can't do well running a company, they have to be curious unless it's look like you speak about technology I just assumed the same rules. But building a retail company it's kind of like painting a very beautiful picture as to what we'll stick together you know I once went twice went to visit Ford motor. Design. [41:01] Headquarters and the first time I got was because Anna meaning with Jeff Sons yeah. Surrender they show the new Mustang this is probably seven. The co-host and I said he says what do you think of the car in front of all these people I said it's a very cool looking car. [41:26] The wheels are really big and I would never want to Market or sell a car for have one myself with a wheels are bad, I know it's kind of silly ish but it's not it's putting together a painting and there's nothing worse, there are worse things in wheels that stand out like a sore thumb so he invited me to, Detroit with designer factors Co didn't go with me which I thought says. He's no one not because of Nations and it was seven people designing the one car. Now you understand why the cars a lot of cases look like they look. Steve always wanted to talk he would have done now they were to get when I he was he was fascinated with Tesla very impressed night, from his point of view it wasn't I said I know if you remember the to see your test sports car. Scot: [42:28] Register yeah. Mickey: [42:29] I said Steve it's such an ugly looking Paris looks to me like you are pathetic it's not about the course looks you can always design a beautiful car it's about what's inside. Mechanics engineering but anyway I think. You know as for me I'm accused of being a micromanager you really better be, you better care about the wheels better care about this hear about that Medicare by recalling about he just you know we have a few new bad colors in Arabic in Arabic. The color is of opinion L and if you buy three good colors and then two bad ones you don't morejon out on the product because you have bad colors which I don't think people pay enough attention to. And I could know what I'm trying to think what else to go on. Scot: [43:23] You know I know we're running up on time but just quickly quickly so you you kind of were very early on what this kind of direct to Consumer now there's this whole digitally native vertical brand what what do you think's driving that Trend and where do you think it goes. Mickey: [43:39] Yeah I think it continues to go because if you're buying wholesale you know the pricing is all off. And I saw that when I was you know young guy you know like when I was at Bloomingdales I was 23. Alexander's department store maybe Fourth Generation member states they I was a swimsuit sweater and t-shirt. And everything else I wasn't I didn't do that for terribly wrong but for the year I was in there you are Alexander's cut their prices. In the middle of June and I'll never forget I had a couple my prices we had a policy to meet price. Young kid in the business and I was Furious Alexander's just here and now my my profits and margins. Then what to help. Because I hadn't worked out on my bathing suits that was a stupid rule but it wasn't a bad I kind of like the idea of Crisis competitors that was the beginning, what's happened to the last 30 or 40 years T.J.Maxx the most important department store. [44:58] And you know the word stimuli, we have all the discounts that and you go online and you we had a big discussion here yesterday you said well we sell this to Nordstrom Rack and he said well if it was an existing item, we want think if it isn't bad covers and they said you can't miss anything going to go online, given a look for this island yes my little bit Nordstrom Rack will whoever Valance T.J.Maxx before you see Alex Mill so the pricing. Is critical so white and a lot of what I did was also because who I always admired Ralph Lauren Bailey – pricing and I know all these things cost and so I said we can put together. A design team that will hopefully be as good as a design team ourselves if we do that I say I don't I don't want to have another problem. [45:59] So the prophets were always all the retailers are inflated in America in Goods that are wholesale purchases, because it is plant safety and cost, and here we might sell 250 you spend fifty yourself Bloomingdale's 425 and hundred twenty-five goes to 275 or $300 is the difference. In pricing so TJ Max knows that really long Ross stores. Everyone knows it and and I think that's why I don't think there's a future to be in that business. And I sit to the parks to excited family with a lot and probably not have to hear this but. Jason: [46:46] Yeah no department stores listen to our show I promise I'm. Mickey: [46:52] So I said I really don't want to see I said where you going to be in five years or ten years if everything you bought. Is available at a discount and that's the truth. So and I have friends in the business they do hello mrs. with teaching marks they do with most of the partner stories and what does that leave you and Caroline Woods is a great coach. And really smart nice person but what is forty fifty sixty billion dollars huge profits so, and really big believer must now this is where I'm standing in the luxury business is not. We have they probably can do it now via makes does. They do with brilliantly I guess the other one you know they have they can probably do it who's those customers probably like it exclusivity they like paying more money and so on and so forth but it works through that I think it does, so so I know if I knew the answer to that question with that pricing thing is huge. Jason: [48:06] No it's a it's a big issue for the industry to figure out and people that don't are going to. Have it have a challenging future I think as you've highlighted I did want to ask you a question so, if anyone Google's Mickey Drexler your you're gonna find all these business articles with your picture on the cover and some variation of this title that we've all given you the merchant Prince um and that the kind of just I hope you're okay with it seems like you get that title whether you want it or not. The gist of all those is that man, Mickey had a really good run of picking a lot more winners than losers of therefore it having the the products that that consumers wanted and you know they're there for achieving a bunch of financial success for your various businesses and I've always wanted to ask you, is in your mind is that success as a merchant is that we're you better than other people at, identifying the trends that were emerging in what people wanted or were you better at getting people to want what what you liked. Mickey: [49:19] I think it's a little box I think our industry is lacking. Merchants today as much as I've seen over the last many many decades. I don't know what it is but I think you have a sense of seeing around corners you must see around the corners, I believe except if you're a seller if you're a Discounter and you're good at it you don't have to see around the corners just have to Source right, and I have the right price and have a great way to view or but those businesses are out there I don't really know them well. But that's important in most business not enough you know, worthy I think mostly eyeglasses they sell what's true of all of us most of what we sell, are what we would call her oh it items iconic but you have to feel it you have to see it. You have to have an inch and in the instinct is incredibly. [50:39] I think I was talking to a friend yesterday and he said in his 15 year old is now color rather than know what need p is. The expanse was something I said you know it's interesting I said to Henry I said do, is there anyone in your family who is musical I always ask someone that question whoever I interview, and sure enough Henry's wife plays very good these though and Henry was a musician. [51:13] Growing up. And now here's their son they are very talented musician artist creative there's always some kind of. DNA is connection is fine and it always also depends on who works I was very lucky, I started working for a woman named King Marcin I didn't work for she's the best Fortune taste Isle and when I got to Bloomingdale's like this young. [51:42] And I was after the first day in the house was checking on what they gave me a department to run, Stand start that's it you're the buyer one department and Katie Mercy was my mentors go off to Europe together factories and I guess I learned from her, and she the best merchants in the company if she wasn't a woman she's Co she was fantastic but there is something you get. Fun styling taste that you were born with and I think that's true in stinking with anything in the world. Tonight and it's not a scientific illusion but I everyone I interview I kind of want to know what their parents did. [52:30] For what this family that might have been a grandfather and a lot of especially creative it. So so I think that's really important the other part of the question is mostly was what you're going with and then creating your maker, well there's a lot of things under the radar and if you go after it you create demand for the people just don't expose it so we have recording a items we bring in, old mr. white we doing that way of doing this and they take off like crazy because someone wanted. And understanding what someone might want and Steve Jobs has tasks. [53:17] Is all part of the skill set with meeting. I'm not too bad Commodities during this price I thought would worry Parker bids was absolutely brilliant at figuring. What's out there with the stylish kind of cool pumping where people are going to pay $95 for their eyeglasses the only thing I say that Neil and Davis I think we need to at times. Balance or if you read Tales they could probably leave me come to my newest company of record I said I think you can have one more fun and I prices and however Orange. But the most important so then just like friends but no I think you you kind of born I see, I see him every time you sit down and look at it woman and she gets it it's in her blood why she has. And she's had a chief Merchant and see something and feels it and knows it and you know and then you have to be go to the message you're not quitting. [54:23] You have to know numbers you have to get Four Kings you have to figure out how long it'll be around you know has has everything. To the end of the numbers of databases we've been doing data since with 23 years old, whatever you always needed you need to know how much to buy anything happens to the forecast and you need to know how many sizes you do but now they have another fancy name for it. Act like merchandising second you're not going to succeed in affection. Jason: [54:58] I think you just answered my next question but that's like so obviously the traditional merchandising you have this science part which is the math and the forecasting and open a by and all that good stuff and you have the intuition which like to a certain extent seems like a god-given talent the, what's interesting to me is lately some of these new companies that have been born and Amazon being a great example like they used to hire a lot of merchants in every category so that have a, pet food buyer and you know and apparel buyer and a battery by or whatever they've kind of gotten rid of the merchant title and they've gone all-in on the data so they call it hands off the wheel and they let the computer decide what to buy, instead of a merchant and I've told lesser extent I think Katrina it Stitch fix, has that model a little where she uses data to inform her product a lot more and then you think of like she in and the Uber fast fashion space is, is that a future Trend like do you see that mostly working for these discount categories is that. Mickey: [56:03] Well I think you can argue Amazon but you know I thought when when I was I thought Amazon should have purchased J.Crew. I thought it would be really smart purchase they get a culture fashion and style. I think they'd be dangerous if they could figure that out. [56:30] And so we had someone approached them and of course it was done yeah not the personally I won't be there. I think that. If you look you can't even Stitch fix success but you cannot argue with kind of goods they sell if you. I like what I do I love I love what I do and it's about taste and style and if you do that for. Many have a point of view you'll probably do well so I need you to it is really good at the Bronx Science I couldn't get arrested enhanced you G I was always really good, I think you have to be good so I guess I do all the stuff they do I do. We're just hiring people do single stitch. We haven't been there but then again we are you know my choices to be the style formation with fun and emotion I give credit to any company. Whatever they do is stand financially successful of your poems but I don't know enough about Stitch fix lots of opportunities and Stitch fix. Jason: [57:50] Chien have you follow them at all. Mickey: [57:52] Like they're wildly successful I don't follow them when it's but you know. Jason: [58:00] It seems like they're a lot more about like plugging into all the social media you know like picking up the latest trends on on Instagram and Tick-Tock and things like that and then like you know super fast supply chain 2, didn't get those Trends in. Mickey: [58:16] Yeah and then again I care about quality and I care about all the stuff maybe bit different but if they're really from Julia. Jason: [58:25] It is it's a Chinese company they don't love for people to know that. Mickey: [58:29] Yeah well you know I wanted but sourcing their secretary like giveaway Price is Right. Jason: [58:36] Yeah it's super inexpensive like some people call it disposable fashion which is probably a. Mickey: [58:41] Yeah this is not what we want to do it's a kid's business on young business. I don't know we'll see how I like you know my company's that well so we'll see. [59:01] But but no I think the maths we really need a good mind and and for me I'm a huge micro. I'm looking at. Right now jumpsuit made dead which is brand-new and we're going to sell a lot of it is you know we just put it it's kind of comes naturally if you have the big jumps in the cellar. And and so you know you always create but you're not creating months Salem I just looked at. [59:36] I'm just really upset I looked at it I see why did me five men were 87 and it's $295 I said that's important just came in yesterday to the bad mark. And usually they can get away with doing that as a rebuttal so when you got it. And right now syllables troops crossed because it's not being self so you kind of get something you kind of knowing side and sort of okay. It's just bad news and it's not us. And you have to have a sense like covers the same thing most of them look alike so that the finger it comes. I think it's an offender brand new bottle and it's made by making sure it's a really good looking car and. I looked at it I said I don't want to renew pop color something that's you know not everyone's driving it's a very good looking car and you can see it's going to be a big guy. Because it's really designed well you know part talking about it over. Jason: [1:00:48] No I'm trying to switch. Mickey: [1:00:50] It's called The Defender I like your car like this. Not to me but you work committee should whatever but you could see the second Network, Tina news needles and I think it is I see a lot of them and cars used to be a lot more interesting design, then they are too maybe it's because is definitely people decide on here maybe it's the vision see it's hard to find cars and is Towing it. You know you all have an interest in cars. No we talked to what good looking car and not a lot of them are right so and I used to collect isn't nice. But but I kind of collecting child fantasize you've been having some cool cars but they are all kind of well design. They were uniquely designed and today you know it's a different world. Marker 06 Jason: [1:01:52] Yeah no for sure and it's it, interesting there sort of both out there there's you know people that you know still go for that unique distinctive looking care about the Aesthetics and there's people that you know just want to take an Uber for, for transportation so seems like a parallel is going in the same direction as that there's you know strong stuff with a strong point of view and that's that's quality and unique and then you know there's some people that you know just want, affordable inexpensive sweatshirt. Mickey: [1:02:23] Sure was were those for sure but you know I like the integrity. And not expensive I personally don't like expensive too expensive you know I mean I know maybe this is for sure. Jason: [1:02:43] Yeah well is it Mickey we could go on for hours but it has happened again we have used up all of our allotted time and I actually think. Mickey: [1:02:53] I'm having so much fun here guys. Jason: [1:02:55] I know I know why we will record the Extended Cut and you and I can just keep chatting. Mickey: [1:03:02] Anytime seriously. Jason: [1:03:04] You're our new guest host you're in. Mickey: [1:03:08] All right listen thanks a lot I appreciate the time and the questions and the schmoozing you know I do like two shoes so this is a great shoes. [1:03:26] Never ever I was on that I was on Instagram for about a minute and I came off like I don't want to forget. Scot: [1:03:36] Okay well you if people want more you exclusively come to the Jason Scott show that's where you'll be going. Mickey: [1:03:41] Anytime. Jason: [1:03:42] We really appreciated the time and enjoyed chatting with you and until next time happy commercing.
EP274 - Warby Parker and AllBirds IPOs Warby Parker and AllBirds filed their S-1 registrations with the SEC in preparation of making an initial public offering. In this episode we deep dive into all the information revealed in the fillings. Surprising Learnings From Warby Parker And AllBirds IPO Filings (forbes.com) Episode 274 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Wednesday September 1st, 2021. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 274 being recorded on Wednesday September first 2021 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scott Wingo. Scot: [0:40] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason and Scot show listeners Jason we have a lot of favorite things on this podcast but you know it's even cooler than some fresh Amazon quarterly results hot new Gadget. Even some exciting Star Wars news. Jason: [0:55] No what's God. Scot: [0:57] A fresh delicious hot out of the oven S1 and you know it's better than S1. Jason: [1:02] I'm guessing to S ones. Scot: [1:04] You are right that is right we have we're very excited this week because not only do we have one s one but we have two s ones so I don't know if that's an S 1 squared or S2 or how we talked about that I guess 2's ones, and what's really exciting is one of our favorite topics on the show is digitally native vertical brands also called dnv B's and we have two of them that filed within a week of each other so that's pretty exciting so the two are Warby Parker and allbirds and before we do a deep dive into those S ones and highlight some of the things that we found that were interesting for listeners I wanted to give everyone just kind of a reminder of a great way to read an s-1, so an s-1 is. [1:52] Haven't haven't done a gone public before it's kind of like a sandwich so you have three parts you have this kind of first part where there's all this introductory stuff and you're kind of like CIA in that part and then you get into the delicious sandwich part of the the meat and potatoes of this one which is commonly called management discussion and Analysis they called em DNA and that's the best part because really management actually writes that now they have a lot of guidance from lawyers and investment bankers and PR firm in all this Jazz but it's really most of the times it is the founders you know putting pen to paper and describing the business and their words then after that you have the lawyers kick in and then you have a pretty good chunk of risk factors and then the accountants kick in and you've got your your your Gap financials and all that stuff and all that's interesting but if you're going to I always start a nest one from the middle out so I like to read that mdna first because it's the best way to hear about the company from the founders. [2:54] Now Warren Buffett and his Charlie Munger they always kind of famously start at the back of this one and they like to start at the audited financials and that's kind of how they look at a business and that's important but especially for these I think it's pretty interesting because you know it tells us why the founders do this dnv be thing how's it going how do they think about their business what are the key metrics they're looking at inside of there and I think that's particularly relevant for listeners of this show because you can learn a lot you know these businesses may be there ahead of you or behind you and your scale but it I always learned a ton about. [3:34] You know what other operators are doing and thinking about their business and you pick up a lot of interesting new tidbits there may be things you like and don't like that you can add to your repertoire. Jason how do you how do you peel into a delicious yummy new S1. Jason: [3:49] Yeah well I mostly take your advice that I guess to two alternative views is just skip the s-1 entirely and wait for the retail Roadshow and so you can kind of watch a movie instead of have to do all this math and read. Scot: [4:02] Yeah I like the retail Roadshow too but sadly it comes weeks after this one so this one is like an appetizer before you get to the movie. Jason: [4:10] Yeah and II may be uniquely odd in this regard but I do find it amusing and humorous to read the risk factors. I know they have nothing to do with the business and weren't written by anyone that has anything to do with the business but I feel like. They're increasingly more creative in the voluminous wig west of apocalypses that could. Could strike the Earth and I want to say like of the hundred seventy one page Warby Parker S1 about a hundred pages of it is the risk factors. Scot: [4:42] Yeah, yeah and I mean it is fun to read but you're taking the right approach at it what drives me crazy is actually went through and looked at a bunch of the headlines for both these companies and I would say about 1/3 to 25 percent of the. Press that covers you things you know to be and I don't know if this is just lack of understanding or clickbait or some combination of those things but they always pull out the risk factors so you'll see you know allbirds is worried about Nike as a competitor and you know and then you're like what did they read about that and they've just pulled out a the competitor list of the risk factors well the lawyers are saying you know if anyone has ever sold a shoe put them in the risk factors you know it's not like it's not like the founders in their own words are staying up late at night worried about Nike but maybe they are but. Most of that stuff is not the founders words it's lawyers kind of saying you know here's a checklist list everyone that you've ever think you thought you've competed with now that's their guidance. Jason: [5:42] Yeah I mean the list of competitors isn't remotely shocking it's more of the zombie apocalypse that makes me chuckle. Scot: [5:48] Yeah and now there's all these, yes every time new legislation comes out you have to add a risk factors know it's like you know GDP our cyber security we use cloud computing that could go down we it's kind of like you have to think of everything that's ever happened and you want to cover it so that if you do get sued you can say well it was a risk factor you should have known we warned you. Cool so we flipped a coin and you are going to kick us off with a deep dive into or be. Jason: [6:21] Yeah yeah so we'll jump right into it and we'll start with some of the financial metrics per your point is pretty interesting because these are. Private companies they don't necessarily disclose a lot of this and so you kind of go from like a pretty vague view of these companies to a pretty detailed View and if you're some other DMV be that still private like there's great benchmarking data in here so Warby Parker. [6:48] 20/20 in this is all complicated because of course 2020 was an anomalous year 2020 revenue for Warby Parker was just under 400 million in sales so 393 million and kind of to give you a progression they were 272 million in 2018 then they jumped up, 370 million in 2019 and then you know a much smaller jump up to three hundred and ninety-three million in 2020. The more eye-popping number is they have six months of data from 20 21 and they're already at 270 million in 2021 so if you kind of compare first six months of this year to first six months of last year. Last year there were 176 million this year there are 270 so they're definitely seeing a nice clip of growth. And obviously as you grow bigger you would hope that that scale would help you with profitability when you're you know small and still you know in growth mode it's sometimes hard to make a profit, and in this case. It doesn't appear like they've achieved that escape velocity where they're starting to turn a profit yet like the gross margins are. [8:00] Are in a reasonable ballpark they're pretty consistent in the kind of 658 to 60% range and so they are generating. Net positive ebit has but they basically have had a net loss every year except 2019 when they broke even. So what's a little worrisome about that is. [8:26] You know you like if you look at 2018 you said hey they sold 270 million and they lost 22 million on it in 2019 they sold 370 million and they broke even. Like that's looking like a pretty good Trend that scale starting to help them with their profitability but then in 2020 where they had a lot of extra costs from covid and as we'll talk about in a bit they're somewhat store. They were even bigger 393 and they had their biggest loss ever 55 million, and they're doing better this year but they're not on a path to profitability this year either so they're the on the 270 million they've sold this year they've lost 7.3 million. Um before I jump further does any of that financial news sort of surprise you at all Scott or does that. Scot: [9:17] Now I have a different opinion but well we're going to do a little kind of analysis again. Jason: [9:22] I like it cliffhanger. Scot: [9:23] Yeah yeah. Jason: [9:24] So one of the interesting things well a all these digital native Brands you start off by like generating some buzz and selling some stuff to people that are already friendly to you and it's super easy sales and and cost to get those sales is very low but then pretty quickly all these companies go into digital advertising mode and they buy ads on Google and buy ads on. [9:47] To grow quickly and the first ads they buy a relatively cheap because, that they can you know Target a very specific audience and there aren't a lot of other people buying that exact same audience so the, the cost per ad is low and so the the customer acquisition cost can be pretty reasonable but as you get bigger. [10:06] You have to buy a bigger chunk of audience from Facebook and more people are competing for that same audience and it's a reverse auction so you have to pay the most to get the ad and so growing purely on this digital ad business. Pretty challenging particularly when Google and Facebook are so good at optimizing the the the maximum cost per ad and so. For almost every DMV be we've ever talked about they they have trouble scaling and they almost always Implement some new tactics later in their evolution to kind of scale beyond the digital ad phase and so in war Beast Partners case they were one of the first retailers to say, the MVPs to say hey we need to open a bunch of stores and stores can be really profitable billboard to help dramatically improve our customer acquisition costs so by 2018 they already had 88 stores, and right now they have a hundred and twenty-six or a hundred forty five stores so so they have a reasonable Fleet of stores that has grown pretty pretty quickly. Obviously there's a lot of extra costs for running those stores and obviously those stores didn't do particularly well in covid. [11:21] So some of the interesting things about the stores is that like in 2018 sixty percent of the revenue came from e-commerce forty percent of the revenue came from retail about the same in 2019 but as they jumped up there store counts and 2020 that. So in 2020 sixty percent of the revenue came from these retail stores 40 percent came from ecom's so the store is really are becoming the primary acquisition Channel. It's super interesting to look at the. [11:54] The unit economics of a customer how expensive it is to acquire a customer how much money they make on each customer has sticky each customer is and different s ones you know give, different granularity in case of Ori Parker they reported a customer acquisition cost so they said that in 2018 they spent $26 per customer to acquire customers. In 2019 they said they spent $27 to acquire customers and in 2020 and the pandemic influenced year they had to spend more they spent $40 per customer to acquire customers now put a big Asterix on that there's some controversy will get to in a minute but. If you take those numbers on face value those are pretty darn good customer acquisition cost for this kind of business other. [12:42] Kind of did you a native vertical brands that have have done it s one have disclosed some kind of eye-watering Lee expensive customer acquisition costs and so famously like Blue Apron was paying $400 a customer to acquire customers so so even $40 a customer it's pretty reasonable to kind of put that in perspective in 2020 they were getting about 218 dollars in sales per customer which is a little over two orders, um so the the the unit economics are potentially viable. Except for that sgna line and all the expensive advertising that they're having to do which is ultimately driving that those those net losses. So those were kind of my big. [13:31] Takeaways and I alluded to a controversy friend of the show and former guests Dan McCarthy who's a assistant professor Emery and one of the true gurus and in clv um he looked at this as one and at first he was like wow that's a really good customer acquisition cost they should be commended and then he like started reading the fine print and they've used a novel definition of customer acquisition costs they've divided all of their expenses by all of their customers and. About sixty percent of their customers are returning customers so in theory. You shouldn't be dividing all of your digital marketing by your total number of active customers you should be dividing it by the new active customers and that's kind of the traditional definition that Dan and most of the rest of the world use we don't know what that number is for Warby but it's probably a lot higher than the. Forty dollars that would be disclosed based on this kind of unique definition of customer acquisition costs. Scot: [14:39] They did they kind of elaborate on that or. Jason: [14:44] No they didn't at all. Scot: [14:45] And easier he just kind of picked it apart and like there was no. Jason: [14:48] Yeah like they like there's not enough data in the s-1 to try to estimate a. Revised customer acquisition cost now what Dan has done in the past is he's gone a hold of credit card panel data. And kind of backed into like customer acquisition cost by looking at the the. The spend from you know the from customers I haven't you know I don't know that he's done that analysis yet for these guys are the even has access to the data to try but. Yeah so at the moment we don't know what their khakis I have to be honest you like even if. You you kind of like double it because you say like oh they should have only been chart you know counting all these costs against the 40% new customers and not against the hundred percent active customers. You're still at like 80 dollars which is expensive you you can't make money spending $80 for a customer that you only sell $180 to. It's still better than a lot of these other companies that we've looked at. Scot: [15:58] The worse is Casper were the cactus a good couple hundred dollars higher than the mattress. Jason: [16:04] Yeah and I would say. Like these guys have about the most mature store model of any of these companies like Casper's up there too but the next company will talk about allbirds has a lot less stores so, you know if the opening your own stores is the way to lower kak then you would expect to see it in Warby Parker's S1. And my my takeaway from this is. Either you have to get to a much bigger and you're going to say something in a minute that potentially disagrees but either where we Partners hypothesis is you have to get to a much bigger number to get profitable. And so maybe you know instead of one or million run rate I need a billion dollar run rate. Or you need an alternative customer acquisition strategy beyond your own stores and digital ads which are the two tools warble uses and I would also argue where B is. About as good as it gets at sort of organic demand generation and they do they do great like social they do gritty like they do all the other guerrilla marketing tactics so like. [17:15] Um I would you know if they're not profitable on 390 million with their type of product it seems hard to imagine that someone else with the same type of product. Is going to do much better because they seem like a externally they seem like a darn good execute. Scot: [17:37] Yeah isn't in the die where category is dominated by the luxacore Oslo Exotica and they own like everything right so they do they have you know they have a licensed almost every frame like. Jason: [17:50] Yeah almost every designer brand you've ever heard of is a is actually like license to Exotica. Scot: [17:58] Yeah then they own the. Jason: [18:00] And they own a bunch of the chains of retail stores. But they also do wholesale so Exotica like both sell all those license frames to the third parties. And they sell through their own stores, and they sell at a way higher price point than Warby Parker so they have way more margin like you know part of the premise of Warby Parker is the eyewear should be affordable so their average per glasses is $95 whereas. Like that the aov firm exotic is going to be much higher. Scot: [18:33] Yeah I do I'm not a customer but I knew I do know people that are and they do tend to buy more I've heard him say is anecdotal but I've heard him say especially women they'll say you know the prices are low enough I can buy a two or three different pairs that kind of they almost become accessories at that just kind of interesting. Jason: [18:48] So that's what I was hoping to see right like you go man I've been part of a frame cost $500 I can't own that many frames but if they cost a hundred dollars I might have different ones for different outfits right or. Right and so yeah like. Could their average order value be much higher but on average they're only selling 2.14 pair of frames per customer. So they're like again frame is $95 their average revenue per orders $184. Um so they're not necessarily like seeing a huge kit I'm sure their customers like you describe but they're not there are apparently are not enough of those customers that that's. [19:28] Change dramatically changing the economics also where we park our his kind of expanded to be a vision care company rather than just eyeglasses so they launched contacts they have optometrist services in all the stores and you might go oh wow I wonder how those things are contributing and at the moment / this one they're not, like the the all the non glasses products cumulatively are about one percent of Revenue and all the Professional Services are one percent of Revenue so these the the eyeglasses are 98% of their business now maybe that means there's a lot more growth there. [20:05] But like my so my overall take away. These numbers did not surprise me in terms of Revenue it was about exactly where I would have expected I wasn't sure they would be profitable by now it wouldn't have surprised me if they were so it's a little concerning to me. That they're that they're not. Again if a ton of this loss in 2020 is because of the pandemic and they really did break even on 370 and if they find a way to end up profitable in 2021. Um I'm their biggest Revenue year ever then you know that that probably looks pretty good but I can tell you a ton of people were shocked by these numbers a ton of people thought Warby Parker was much bigger a lot of people were speculating that they were near or over a billion dollars in annual sales which I did not view is very likely and so I think this is kind of a. [21:01] Glass of cold water in the face of a lot of the DMV be Fanboys and d2c Fanboys that like these guys are, are basically the poster child for that whole segment and they're better than most of the other ones and you know even they do not have. Home run financials and so you know frankly like this this bodes poorly for the financials of a lot of other like apparel DMV bees that we haven't seen yet. Scot: [21:33] Well I guess my seemingly controversial take is when. You know when you talk to these investment bankers there's all of this data that indicates that you should really focus on growth and not profitability if you're if you're if you're in a category like this which you know the pitch is there's this new way to build a brand it's direct-to-consumer it's digitally native yeah we're having some stores so by focusing on ibadah you're essentially saying we were making profit and we, need this we don't have anything to spend it in essentially because it's just going to kind of move over to your balance sheet especially when do an IPO you're in a load of the balance sheet with presumably at least a hundred million maybe more so. When you when you look at the data especially at this scale it's much better to lose money or to not get profitable for years because. You want to pump all that into growth so every dollar you can drive into growth gets a much bigger multiple than a dollar that goes to the bottom line. [22:42] So yeah so that's that's why and then the other challenges once you're profitable. It's kind of hard to undo it the classic example is Amazon in our retail world you know how many times have you and I heard retailers complained that Amazon is a profitable this is when they weren't profitable today they are only say they're not profitable, eventually Amazon got to the point where they just couldn't not be profitable so but you know for a good kind of like, I don't know 20-year run their they weren't profitable so they were the extreme example of this and it gave them much more leverage over like a Walmart who had been printing ibadah never got used to it and got valued off eBay doc then you can't go in and say, there's a new disruptor and hey everyone we're going to we're going to stop being ibadah positive and growing even on we're going to focus on the top line to you know our spend. 500 billion on some fulfillment centers so it yeah I think it's appropriate and I'm sure you know the risk factors that's going to be probably one of the first ones is we. I don't plan to make money and we may never make money so yeah so I think it's actually. I would almost expecting to be losing more you know if I look at kind of 21 so a lot of these. [24:04] S ones they do a six-month view because they don't want to update it every quarter its kind of pain wdesk one while you're in process so they'll do it like a six-month you and I believe their six-month view was 270 million Revenue so that put them in a 540 anyone's is that what it was the okay. Yeah and then loss is 20 that's even a lost that loss of seven so losing 14 on that that's. Jason: [24:31] The well the even has our positive by the way the it's only the net loss that like so like they have they made 20 20 million ibadah on 270 million in sales in the first six months of this year so that's. Scot: [24:43] That must be the way you're some accounting the other thing that's really frustrating is a. Jason: [24:48] They have all sgna below that you badal line which is weird to me at least I don't like. Scot: [24:54] Yeah that is weird. Jason: [24:56] That's that's why you got from this yeah that's why you got get from this positive ebitda to this negative net loss. Scot: [25:06] Yeah this is one of the ways Amazon lost money for so long is they would capitalize the leases on now it's become an SEC rule I think this gets kind of the edge of my accounting knowledge. Jason: [25:16] Yeah and they didn't there was not like detailed disclosure about the real estate so I that is an interesting question how they finance these stores and do they own them and all that stuff but. Scot: [25:25] So I would almost say. As in a potential investor I'd rather get to a billion dollars faster and have a negative ebitda a light you know at a 500 million they had like a hundred million ebitda law side. I actually kind of think that's okay especially if they could grow faster. Jason: [25:44] Yeah and so I'll just say I generally agree with you and I certainly get the argument about profitability the the bigger concern for me is there an 11 year old company that's executed about as well as you can execute done all the things that the talking headset are smart to do and they only got two with a super compelling value proposition and very high MPS scores and they still only got to 390 million so I like my biggest cautionary take away from this whole thing is it's way harder to get to a billion dollars then people realize and none of these companies have done it not one have them have gotten to a billion dollars in run rate unless you call like white cloth digitally native vertical brand. So I do think scaling is hard and if it's hard for these guys it's going to be a heck of a lot harder for these why you know companies that want to be super Capital light and not have stores and and all of those things and I well I. Don't over worry about the profitability I will tell you the unit economics are mildly concerning their making a custom product like they have to you know make those lenses for each customer and if they're having to spend $80 to acquire a customer that only half their customers are buying a second time they're only getting a hundred and or 218 dollars in revenue from each customer and they have to make a custom product in that it just like. [27:13] I'm not saying they can't get to profitability at a billion dollars but it's. It doesn't look like a home run business I could it still could be a good investment right and I mean as long as there's someone that's willing to pay more for your stock after you own it not saying the stock won't do well at all but it doesn't look like. A company that's likely to just you know generate like obscene free cash flow like Amazon does. Scot: [27:40] Yeah I bet if you looked at a kind of store cohort you'd be happier with the profitability and maybe that was something. Jason: [27:49] Yeah I would have loved to see that in this one and obviously they didn't put it in there. Scot: [27:53] Yeah you know and and yes so they must have been advised that the institutional investors aren't going to be that concerned that I think. I think they're actually close enough with the lines are the lines are converging so you know you can kind of see if you just kind of. Plot them out you can see they'll cross no get profitable because they're already been up positive So eventually they'll get to that net loss off when the lines are diverging like Lyft and Uber when they went public they had to spend a lot of time in there s one talking about well we know our lines are diverging but it's because we're if you take our cities that are over a year old they're very profitable and the reason our losses are growing faster than revenue is because we're opening city so fast and that's how investors got comfort in that example. Jason: [28:37] Yeah and their lines are diverging from 19 to 20 now they're going to say well but that's covid-19. Scot: [28:43] Yeah yeah that's project I could see that. Jason: [28:44] No I'm sure does yeah and especially again because stores. So Scott what did you learn from the allbirds S1. Scot: [28:56] Yeah allbirds was it was a good read I enjoyed it it was different you know so I kind of appreciate that having read a lot of these it was less dry of any S1 especially the mdna section was felt like the founders had definitely put their heart and soul into it I don't know if you do you listen to the podcast how I built this they. A really good episode on there and you know the thing another thing I appreciate about allbirds is there's consistency there every time you every time I hear one of the founders I go in a store have an online experience Packaging. They're very purposeful and brand message is very very tight in and until you try to do that it's hard to appreciate how hard it is to execute on that so, so I just really felt like that was interesting that even this one kind of landed on me as if you know the same vibe that I got from the store and the product and everything so that was really cool and kudos to them on that probably the most interesting thing about the allbirds S1 is they try to kind of tilt it and they say look we're not going to do an IPO we're going to do an S peo and what they're essentially doing is saying we want to elevate the discussion and talk a lot about sustainability and so they call it a sustainable public Equity offering and spe now I'll get into more of that but I wanted to go into some of the numbers first. [30:26] So on the number side there 2019 Revenue was a hundred ninety-three million and then in 2020 they did 219 million so so that's 13 percent year-over-year growth. [30:38] So that was interesting to me and then they it has accelerated from 20 22 21 looking at the six month period to 27 percent, they unfortunately there they've got a fair amount of international business you've got this kind of no Financial impact of currency conversion the FX is what they call it so do their 25 or 27 depend on depending on the currency situation but let's call it mid-20s and. So that's interesting so they've got accelerating Revenue growth which Wall Street loves to call that ARG ARG and then they broke out digital and said that it was 89 percent of their business and in 2020 that was a hundred ninety-four did you see that going down because part of their use of proceeds is opening a lot more stores they have 27 stores as of the IPO so June. [31:33] June 20 and then I've been 21 and then they have the pretty much say you know one of the we're going to open a lot more stores and it's gonna be a big push for us they also are losing money they're losing about 40 million a year so kind of twenty percent of Revenue is being lost which kind of feels you're going to lose money you might as well lose you know twenty Thirty forty percent of of Revenue to accelerate so that felt more in line with kind of what I've seen is public-private kind of vc-backed company coming into the public markets couple highlights on the other metrics they talk a lot about how their nudging gross margins up they in 2018 gross margins were at 47% and then moving up to 51% and a good expansion there on the margin side that's pretty typical as you scale and you start to nail down with any kind of manufactured product there's definitely margin benefits of scale right because you're buying more pallets of wool I don't know what we'll comes in sheep's of wool and you're getting more you know your. Paying off your fulfillment centers and you're taking a lot of these fixed costs you just putting more stuff through them so on a unit basis it drives in Crete drives down your unit cost just driving up your gross margins. [33:00] They were they were much more silent on cackle TV than what you saw with Laura B and so some of the data they had was they try to repeat customers and that number has gone up and. 2019 it was 46 percent of their revenues from repeat customers and then that was up in twenty twenty two fifty three percent they last raised a hundred million on 1.7 billion and I'll come back to that and then let's see the biggest thing about their IPO I hinted at the top with this spe oh is there all about sustainability and it's pretty interesting because some people they just kind of throw that in there in the hopes that there's the public markets there are increasingly large number of either, purposely built vehicles for investors that want to focus on this area or. [33:55] There's a big investors that are moving this way one of the biggest public investors is called Black Rock and they run out, huge massive amount of capital most of it in mutual funds but I think they have some hedge funds and whatnot and their CEO is basically put a Line in the Sand and said by can't remember the year but let's call it 20 30 or something like that they are going to shed any investment it doesn't really have kind of a framework around sustainability and you know. What people uses This Acronym ESG so environmental social and governance in essentially everyone wants companies to to self report what they want to do across those three dimensions and even the SEC is started kind of hinting and recommending that companies that they're going to start doing some things here and requiring them in things like us ones and then, the thing that's really interesting in a public company that I didn't learn until I was kind of deep inside of one a lot of these mutual funds so you go public and you have this new set of shareholders that are largely got mutual funds you've got index funds and you've got hedge funds and then retail which would be individual people like buying to their Charles Schwab well the mutual funds in the index funds when you. [35:17] When every year you put out these different things that you want your shareholders to vote on well they they don't like to vote on those things they like to defer that to a third party and there's several of these third parties once called ISS and the other ones called, glass Lewis or something like that and these third parties therefore become very powerful because they aggregate a lot of the, you know because these decisions are referred to them they thus aggregate a lot of power from your shareholders and they are really starting to get where they are they're saying you know even that's going to be kind of the first Domino to fall I think where they're going to say hey the recommendations we make on your board and comp and all these things that they have to opine on to the, to to the shareholders that have Outsource that to them they're going to really focus in on ESG so so it's a big movement and there's a lot of even CNBC runs like a every other day segment on this topic because it's become such a big big deal and you know I actually think it's good I think you know you would as a as you know. [36:24] Public means transparency and I think companies should be transparent about this stuff and if if they say you know I don't know where we're a liquor company and we're not really focused on this that's fine or if they say we're all birds and this is going to be a huge differentiator for us that's fine too it just you know at least let potential shareholders know where you are on the spectrum of things okay so that's the background the. [36:51] So these guys say look we we think this is so important we want to put a stake in the ground and we've come up with 19 criteria that we hope we're going to be the first we're going to kind of self rate ourselves against these criteria and they fall against, cross effectively two categories for each of the es and the D environmental societal and governance so it's things like you know they want to be carbon neutral they're going to like an environmental they're going to favor vendors that that kind of have a similar carbon neutrality and sustainability mindset to them and on the governance side they're going to have more diversity on their board and those kinds of things. [37:31] One of the interesting things they do explicitly State and this caused a lot of noise on Wall Street is they when you go public you get all these people there's kind of this this literal they call it the book so let's say you're going to sell a hundred million worth of shares you do your Roadshow and then you typically end up with maybe a more orders than you have shares she'll get 300 million so one way to you have an allocation problem so one thing you can do is you can just cut everyone back to a third and you can say well you want to 10 million now we're give you three that's how you could Jam 300 million of demand into a hundred million dollar opportunity well these guys have said is we're actually going to your allocation is going to depend on where you are as an investor as it relates to ESG so essentially they're saying if you're like one of these companies like BlackRock that that is really kind of pushing the foundation there we may give you your full allocation but if you're this kind of hedge fund that doesn't really even have a website and no statement on this then you may get no allocation or a smaller size allocation so that was pretty interesting that's the first time that's been done and that that was kind of. [38:37] Pretty interesting on that so encountered an actually mentioned sustainability in the s-1 over 200 times which is it just shows how important it is to them and you know a lot of companies. Tried this out but allbirds was founded with this right the whole idea of allbirds was could you find sustainable products to make a shoe with and they started with the wool even the soul is made from a plant-based material, if it was obvious like she shows her something to remember what it is. Jason: [39:07] I Scot: [39:09] But it's not rubber it you know it's not a you know there's two types of rubber there is a plant-based rubber from a rubber tree but most rubber is obviously from a petroleum-based so the other thing I thought was interesting is the essentially layout they have five pillars essentially and they basically say hey here's our five pillars we're going to be product Innovative platform Purpose Driven brand with an inspired voice. [39:38] Connections with our repeat customers around the globe so so Global and repeat customers are important to them vertical retail distribution strategy robust infrastructure creating a platform for scale the sequence of those is pretty interesting because again the first one is product Innovation and then second one is purpose-driven and that's where they capture a lot of the ESG stuff. [40:00] The I thought for listeners this would be the most interesting one is vertical retail distribution strategies I just wanted to add one will highlight here are digitally LED vertical retail distribution strategy combines our digital offerings with our stores so we can meet customers where they are delivering value and convenience with our store serving as brand begins our company was born online from the outset we developed a direct convenient digital platform for our customers we opened our first store and 2017 have since been expanding yada yada so and then they wrap up and say in 20 as of June 30 we 20:21 we had the ability to reach up to 2.5 billion consumers in 35 countries across our digital and Retail platforms so I thought that was pretty interesting where they're basically saying this D and B, be thing even though we're at a relatively small scale we think it's still important part of our future and stores are really more of a brand, front face to the digital back and so I thought that was interesting, let's see that some data on repeat analysis but you know the. [41:10] Those are the highlights they that is really confusing table where people bought more than their repeat purchase rate went up. [41:19] I kind of get wrapped up in a chicken and egg thing there because like just by buying more haven't you already made your repeat purchase go up like I couldn't unpack that in my head but I need and up figure that one out for me look at a secret credit card data my analysis on this one so that those are the kind of highlights my analysis was this one was shockingly smaller than I would have thought you know I. I kind of backed in this because I had heard that valuation of 1.6 on their last they're kind of in this unicorn status here 1.6 billion in your like okay a lot of these Brands you look at kind of public comps you get 325 x as an e-commerce company so let's give them a generous valuation of 5x so they must be three or four hundred million and then. Turns out they're kind of in this lower 200 or 300 million scale so that was like well they must be growing at a crazy Pace because if you're going at a hundred percent then you can still get a really nice vault. A super-sized multiple like they must be that makes them hopefully even higher right so there like a times multiple but they're really not they were going 25% so it's kind of a bit of a head-scratcher for me and I'm really curious to see how the IPO does because I kind of assumed I'm not smarter than than all these investors have looked at this and put this price tag on it so I must be missing something so you know the things I think I may be missing. [42:43] You know there's there's a lot of talk they've partnered with Adidas and they're definitely going after the running category and so taking on Nike if you can build anything that's, no one 20th of a Nike that's a big brand so that could be people could be looking at this and seeing the optionality of that is this could be you know counter to Nike this ESG piece it could be that there is an supply-demand imbalance I think. [43:15] I think this is definitely the case where there's a lot more ESG aware dollars looking for places to invest than there are places to put them, so that could be a factor maybe there's some bullish bullishness on the store business where people have done models they say well if they're at, 25 stores and they go to 250 that's going to the growth is going to accelerate a tremendous base so you know I kind of swirl all those around and you know it is interesting so I then I kind of put myself and say well if I was going to be with Nike how would you go about them and Nike doesn't have a lot of weaknesses and yeah they're ten years ago you and I would have said while their weaknesses are not going direct to Consumers but they've largely fixed that right and you've got a lot of you've got a whole deck on that that's excellent so that's not a weakness anymore and but you know Nikes weakness is could be there is a, you know and I don't know any facts on this it's just there's a lot of noise out there right that there's these Chinese labor camps that their products are made in and these sweatshops and children making the shoes and then certainly so there's there's kind of that that they're kind of unclean sourcing if you will. [44:32] People claiming it I have no idea what's going on there and then you know there is an argument to be made that Nike to my knowledge hasn't done a lot to say wow our products are sustainable in these ways is just really isn't their thing so so it is a clever way to attack Nike and maybe it's actually a combination of all these things that investors see and they say we think this is a pretty clever way to attack Nike they're going to get some market share because we think it's important to Consumers it's important to us and they kind of scroll all that together and that's why it gets the bigger multiple so I may be curious to see how the IPO does to see if, that multiple holds up or in a there's definitely something going on there or maybe it was just an anomaly in the private Market. Jason: [45:20] Yeah and in both cases like the. The economics of the IPO aren't really revealed yet right like we're a ways away from from like Target prices and like understanding what the valuation is going to be for the IPO. Scot: [45:37] Yeah yeah you know these guys that could have effectively a Down Round where they essentially say hey we want. Jason: [45:42] Both have raised a lot of money at some like reasonably High valuations. Scot: [45:48] Yeah and you know they probably wouldn't be going public if the bankers weren't telling them they're going to get. Yeah I really nice mark up unless there was some desperation reason and I just don't they're not burning enough Capital that I don't think the existing investors couldn't sustain them for years so so mi bat is the bankers think that they're going to do really well and we'll see a big pop so it will say. Jason: [46:18] Yeah well if you think so a I would say like one of the things that encouraging so a one thing a few things to remember that are different between these two companies is allbirds is much younger than Warby Parker so I want to say Orbeez like 11 years old allbirds is like 5 years old so there earlier in their evolution that 27 stores versus a hundred forty five stores and that's a. A huge difference because a big expense in having stores is advertising to get people to your stores and you know. Beyond the digital advertising which is very expensive per customer like traditional advertising is much less expensive but you have to buy traditional advertising. Based on a metro area and when you only have 27 stores it means basically you're buying an ad to that getting amortized for a single store whereas when you have a hundred and forty-five stores you can have six stores in a a big Metro and that same ad is driving customers to six doors so my first thing I would say is. It seems like they're committed to a store strategy but they're early in the face like they could get an ice pop as they open more stores because all of the marketing and advertising that they're already doing spending money on, will work much harder when they get to a little bigger feet of stores and the. There are economies and scale of running a fleet of stores versus at 27 stores they're probably pretty inefficient. Scot: [47:48] Yeah they talked about how they've had they've invested in some distribution centers into the store so they're probably over distribution Centered for you know 25 stores. Jason: [47:58] So I do think the stores thing is encouraging, um I always am uncomfortable on the whole Purpose Driven thing so because I guess I'm going to mines and you didn't mention it but I think one of the novel things about them is they're one of the first companies to go public that's a certified B Corporation. Scot: [48:16] There's several others so there's that brand for girls nothing to you. Jason: [48:28] Okay well it's I mean regardless a hundred percent think as a marketing tactic that you're a hundred percent right like there is a cohort of customers that really care about a variety of these different missions and Nike doesn't particularly appeal to a lot of them right and so. Kind of providing a viable alternative you know is certainly a way to win a segment I do think. They're very credible like they've been talking about this this sustainability purpose since the very beginning they've invested in it the shoe is more expensive to make because of some of the sustainability choices that they've made so it's not just kind of. [49:12] Ecology washing on top of a you know a greedy brand and like I think their claim in their in their last one is that the the shoe has a like 30% less. Less ecological footprint than a traditional shoe and I think traditional she was code named for Nike by the way. So so I do think they are they are credible in their Purpose Driven thing and there's a. At the moment there are all these surveys of consumers that o gen Z is way more purpose-driven and and way more so than older cohorts they say that you know they really care about a brand that aligns with their goals and they care about the ecological issues and ethical issues in all of these different things and it feels like Auburn's is well positioned to cater to those customers so superficially you go oh nice it's a. It's a growing favorable Trend in there a strong executor at it and I think some of that is legitimate. [50:16] But in the back of my head there's this this famous academic paper from like 8 years ago called the myth of the ethical consumer and basically all young consumers have always said in surveys that they care about these various missions but when you look at their spending habits, there their convictions are a lot less strong than their stated preferences are and so I do I worry. [50:43] About completely hanging my hat on consumers doing the right thing when they're there. [50:50] Happily buying a lot of Nikes obviously I did also think it's interesting. Obviously the unit economics are wildly different than Warby Parker because of the nature of the product but they have 3.3 million us consumers worry Parker has two million consumers despite the fact where we Partners got this way bigger Fleet of stores and has been marketing for six more years so, so they are getting decent reach, both companies disclose their MPS scores their net promoter score and and they're both astronomically high and allbirds is even higher than Warby Parker so they. They're making their customers happy. They're doing well the one thing that jumped out at me as a opportunity is for allbirds that would be harder for worry Parker is. Okay you start out purely online and you're growing through digital ads and then you start opening stores and you invest a bunch in opening your own stores what other levers could you pull if you need to get your customer acquisition cost down. And it's not obvious to me what the big ones are for for Warby Parker, a play that some similar companies to allbirds have run is expanding in a wholesale once once they sort of reach a plateau and allbirds absolutely could do that as well and so it again my takeaway from both of these companies is. [52:17] Scaling is way harder than the the Twitter DTC Universe realizes they all want to imagine these companies are much bigger than they are because they've raised a bunch of money. It turns out raising a bunch of money doesn't equal winning a bunch of customers not saying these two companies can't be wildly successful in win a bunch of customers, I'm just saying it's really hard it's a huge competitive advantage to be a big company that already has a bunch of customers. And it's hard to start a new brand from scratch and catch up and these both of these are examples of that and it's going to be really interesting as they keep trying to grow to see what. What new things they try to accelerate that growth. Scot: [52:59] Yeah absolutely and I was curious I just looked it up allbirds is an 86 net promoter score and War B's latest measure is 83. Jason: [53:08] And those are both astronomical and side note there's some controversy about how people measure it in the inventors of the metric. Our kind of annoyed with how everyone's misusing it so it's not guaranteed that that's perfectly Apples to Apples but. That those numbers kind of fit with the consumer sentiment that I've experienced for both brands. Scot: [53:32] Yeah yeah we do a whole show on the purity of net promoter score. Jason: [53:37] That would be awesome. Scot: [53:40] But that in with some attribution man that's a party right there. Go well it wouldn't be a Jason and Scot show if we didn't have a little bit of. Jason: [53:52] Amazon news new your margin is there opportunity. Scot: [54:04] That's right we got a couple in lausanne news items the one I wanted to chat with you Jason is, Amazon announced they are partnering with buy now pay later firm a firm so that was an interesting one did that take you by surprise. Jason: [54:21] It did it totally did not it didn't surprise me at all that they're getting into buy now pay later it's a huge trend. In a way like I knew they didn't have one but it kind of when I heard it read it and I said it to myself out loud I was cut it's kind of shocking. That they're just now adding it now they have dabbled in the past. With with much earlier iterations of these sort of installment plans but what totally took me by surprise is that they chose a firm like a a firm is working with a lot of. Direct Amazon competitors that aren't going to be happy about this I'm thinking of for example Walmart. And so I'll be curious to see how that flushes out and have a firm can successfully keep both of those clients happy that would be impressive and frankly there's just so much money to be made in this space and an Amazon scale I'm somewhat surprised that they didn't do it themselves. Scot: [55:14] Yeah that shocked me to the thing is I've been digging into these being the combi and pills and it's really interesting so if you look at a firm karna and a bunch of these, you know what they're finding is the under 30 year old consumer, doesn't like the way credit card debt Works where you have this pool of you know that you can pull down and then it accumulates they much prefer to match it with a purchase and pay off the purchase and it's really interesting to read about that and then the the both the firms in there s ones they have a lot of data around us and increasingly even after they've gone public there's more data coming out about this trend so I was I was thinking. You know why Amazon has they if you're a seller though and you money you know they've got their own credit card there's got to be like. What is the larger Banks kind of effectively inside of Amazon that doesn't really Market itself as a bank because it doesn't want to be regulated like a bank maybe that's part of what. Triggers them not doing it. Jason: [56:16] Dress fear about yeah Fair. Scot: [56:18] Yeah there's any trust thing but it is funny you know we've been at this long enough I remember. I'm old enough to remember there was this startup called bill me later and they came on the scene and Amazon used it and you know loved it and was actually giving them quotes that conversions were up 20 percent and then eBay bot eBay / PayPal but Bill Me Later and Amazon ripped them off the site the next night it was controversial and we're all like holy cow I can't you know I think we're all shocked how quickly Amazon turned that off after seeing his praises so it is kind of funny to watch now Amazon jump back into it you know probably been 15 years at this point back into it and partner up with the firm so I almost kind of wondered if. Maybe there was an investment phase but also doesn't Shopify own a chunk of a firm like there's an alliance there too which is another it's unlike Amazon to lay down you kind of have connections into. Competitors even one degree away with a firm in the Middle With both Walmart and Shopify it all. Jason: [57:22] And there is Juicy data at play in this service so it is it is interesting. Scot: [57:28] Yeah days was famously he wouldn't ever he really didn't want to buy any Google ads because he didn't want them to see what they're up to. Jason: [57:36] No I mean part of me would almost suspect that Amazon is like trying to learn on a firm and that it wouldn't be a long-term deal but I entirely speculation. Scot: [57:46] I think both of our Spidey senses are tingling on this one and we'll keep an eye on it then there was a battle of press releases where Amazon Walmart said we're hiring 20,000 people and then Amazon du ha ha we're hiring 50,000 so that was that was the other Amazon news I saw. Jason: [58:02] Yeah I saw that too I got to be honest to me those were nothing Burgers it's super complicated both of those companies hire a ton of seasonal Labour way more than that right and. Sidenote like targets hiring a hundred and thirty thousand people for Christmas so those numbers just didn't seem that impressive and if I was if I was Walmart my press release would have said hey we've hired 500,000 people since covid-19 like that seems that's true and that seems a lot more impressive than than the 20,000 I guess what is interesting in both cases is, this is not seasonal labor these are full-time jobs just dedicated to fulfilling e-commerce orders so that's kind of interesting. [58:42] And two other tiny pieces of Walmart news in the the time that we don't have left Walmart did announce. An enhancement to their advertising echo system so they have a thing called the Amazon or Walmart connect and they launched a DSP for that. Demand-side platform it's a way to use Walmart data to Target segments and by ads both. On Walmart so walmart.com and in Walmart stores but also um across the the interweb using Walmart's first-party data and as we talked about in our privacy show as it's harder to use Google and Facebook targeting because of all these privacy concerns. It makes sense that that retailers are trying to maximize The Leverage they have with their 1p data Walmart has the most customers so they have the most wimpy data and so that that's kind of an interesting evolution of their ad platform and a potential competitive Advantage for Walmart. [59:47] And then another one that's just kind of interesting that I didn't necessarily expect Walmart launched a new delivery platform. Which is delivering goods for other retailers. So they call it Walmart Go Local and essentially you can be independent owner operator you know, in a town and sell stuff for home delivery and Walmart will use their network of owned delivery. People in vehicles to pick stuff up from your bakery and drive them to a customer for a fee. Scot: [1:00:19] Yeah we'll see how that goes I don't know if I want my bakery to be delivered by Walmart. Jason: [1:00:27] Yeah I mean there's a number of issues it just to me it's interesting because obviously Walmart used to be a pure retailer you know you're seeing them lean into a lot of services they it was a few weeks ago but they announced this deal with. With Adobe whether they're they're selling software to Adobe and now they're selling delivery services to you know Main Street when you know used to be the narrative was that Walmart was putting Main Street out of business so it just it's interesting to see the evolution of Walmart. Scot: [1:00:57] I've whenever Walmart talks about some of the services they show kind of a low WalMart delivery vehicle that looks a lot like an Amazon Prime van. Jason: [1:01:06] Yeah they have a lot of different they have kind of a patchwork Fleet of delivery services and some of them use different vehicles but you you maybe more expert in the Walmart delivery Fleet than I am. Scot: [1:01:20] I just see this picture and it I think a lot about Vans everyday and it resonates with me. [1:01:32] I appreciate it thanks for looking out for me well we are out of time and one of the topics we wanted to cover but what with all the juicy IPO news didn't get to this time but will dedicate neck so to it is there is a lot coming up we're kind of coming in to wear it the past the halfway point of Q3 and all eyes will turn to Q4 with the holiday season it's going to be really unique this year because we cut the covid thing we've got the Delta variant we've got all kinds of crazy weather going on with hurricanes so as a retailer it's a really wacky time and one of the things we want to talk about next show is ship again so we coined that here on the show last year and turned out to be probably bigger than even we anticipated what's going on with that and 2021 I see a lot of time thinking about Vanagon there's also chip again so which which caused Vanagon so with want to talk about all the geddens that we're seeing out there. And then also you know there's a lot of interesting things going on the supply chain we've been you know the team here at the Jason Scott show and our many analysts have been listening in to the quarterly results and and talking to retailers about this and we have a lot of information to share on that kind of T up what we think the holiday is going to look like from from those angles. Jason: [1:02:55] Wow that sounds like an awesome show I can't wait to hear it. Scot: [1:02:58] I know I cannot wait for us to make it. Jason: [1:03:01] Will Scott it's happen again we've totally used up our allotted time as always if this was valuable we sure would appreciate that five star review on iTunes and only takes a second it's easier than ever before to leave it jump over there give us a review and make sure you're subscribed to get that next podcast Scot teas. Scot: [1:03:21] Absolutely thanks everyone and until next time… Jason: [1:03:24] Happy commercing.
Today's Episode of the 1 Scot 1 Not Podcast is all about the fairy cat of Scotland! Lucy tells Karen all about these feline fairies, and reveals some gruesome ceremonies connected with them! eeek!!For more fun and antics visit us at 1scot1not.com!
On Today's Episode of the Punch Out:Shameful Purdue Pharma Settlement, Prison Gerrymandering, Massive US Wealth Inequality.
Clare hikes with the inspirational adventurers Hazel and Luke Robertson on the Pentland Hills near Edinburgh. They are mountain leaders, polar explorers and public speakers with many personal experiences to draw upon. Hazel spent four years of her childhood growing up in Canada and Alaska, which developed her love of the outdoors. At the age of 30, Luke became the first Scot to ski solo and unsupported to the South Pole. This was in 2016, just two years after major brain surgery. Both are originally from the North East of Scotland, but now live in Edinburgh from where they run their company 'Everyday Exploring'. They've chosen to take Clare on one of their favourite local walks: Starting at Bonaly (Grid Ref: NT 211 674) they head up White Hill and onto Capelaw hoping, first, for views across the three bridges that span the Firth of Forth and then a broader view taking in more of the Pentlands range. See the 'related links' box on the Ramblings webpage for more information about what's been discussed in the programme. Presenter: Clare Balding Produced for BBC Audio in Bristol by Karen Gregor
Hosted by, Shae K, Clyde Green & Jay Give us a call 877.419.1419 Become a sponsor – Visit http://the419grind.com/advertise - Follow us on Instagram – http://instagram.com/the419grind LISTEN ON: Apple Podcast: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/t... Listen On Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/1qYs6Zl... Google Podcast: https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=... The 419 Grind, LLC does not own the copyrights to any of this music. ASCAP Streaming License 400009914 --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/the419grind/message
Welcome to Heilman & Haver - Episode 41. We hope you enjoy the show! Please join the conversation - email us with thoughts and ideas and connect with the show on Facebook and Twitter and Instagram. ANNOUNCEMENTS "The Pirates of Penzance" at WWCA The hysterical Gilbert & Sullivan musical classic opens September 10, 2021, and runs Friday, Saturday, and Sunday through October 3, 2021. The show is directed and choreographed by our friends (and past guests) Dan Estes and Rebecca Ewen. Tickets start at $19, so dust off that old eye patch and peg leg and visit wwca.us today. The 2021 Seattle Film Summit The 2021 Seattle Film Summit is coming to the Emerald City virtually and in person September 3 - 11, 2021. This premier event is a series of interactive, educational panels and workshops focused on connecting our local industry to L.A., New York, and the world. The summit is a hybrid event comprised of classes, workshops, panels, film screenings, pitch sessions, award ceremonies, and networking opportunities and we'll be there to cover it all. Watch our social media pages for more info or JOIN us! Register at seattlefilmsummit.com and we hope to see you there. IN THE SPOTLIGHT: Kathy Garver Most fondly remembered for her starring role as “Cissy” in the long running CBS hit, “Family Affair”, Kathy Garver has garnered critical acclaim in movies, stage, radio, voice-over animation, and audio book narration. Legendary Cecil B. DeMille was one of the first to recognize Kathy's talent. Originally hired for a small part in the epic motion picture “The Ten Commandments”, Kathy was noticed by the great director who had special scenes written into the movie to highlight the little girl. During her teenage years, Kathy added radio and stage to her burgeoning film and television career and was a freshman majoring in speech at UCLA when she was cast in “Family Affair” to star as “Cissy” alongside Brian Keith and Sebastian Cabot. One of the warmest and most enduring series of the 1960's and 70's, Family Affair earned Kathy a host of accolades such as Best Actress from the “Family Television Awards” and continues to be popular today and is available on Amazon Prime. Today Kathy is an active, accomplished, and versatile actress, appearing in such films as "Sweet November" and "The Princess Diaries". Kathy is also very much in demand for her numerous vocal characterizations and is best known as “Firestar”, a mutant super hero in the Spiderman and his Amazing Friends TV series. Kathy has also recorded audiobooks for Brilliance Audio, Dove, Listen and Live and her voice has been heard in "Apollo 13" (which was awarded the Academy Award for sound), "Ransom", "Back Draft" and "Jingle all the Way", all directed by Ron Howard. Kathy also added author to her long list of accomplishments. Her first book, "The Family Affair Cookbook", was a tasty trip down memory lane and her 2015 memoir, "Surviving Cissy: My Family Affair of Life in Hollywood" was just released in paperback. This year, Kathy has two more books scheduled for publication: "TV Dinners with a Side Dish of Stars" and, to celebrate the 55th anniversary of "Family Affair", "Family Affair: A Pictorial Scrapbook" will be released in September. Currently, Kathy can be seen on her YouTube channel cooking show, "Cooking with Kathy and Scot" and she'll soon be launching a podcast called "All Things Classic" with director, writer, producer John Norton. She is a regular at comic conventions and autograph shows where she greets her many fans. Kathy joined us from her home in Bell Canyon, CA. Connect with Kathy online: kathygarver.com And on Facebook: @kathygarverfanpage COMING UP NEXT WEEK Join us next week, Friday, September 3rd, when we'll be joined by documentary filmmaker and Adjunct Professor at Bremerton's Olympic College Film School Marq Evans. Marq's latest project “Clay Dreams” premiered at the 2021 Tribeca Film Festival and he'll join us to talk about his journey as a teacher and the future of filmmaking in the digital age.
At family devotions, Shona will sometimes say, “David I don't think Scot knows what that word means.” Usually, it's something I think is really basic and just assume that Scot knows. Shona's usually right and therefore I have to try and explain this basic word or concept. The strange thing is that I usually learn in the process! There's something about trying to answer basic questions that's helpful for everyone.In Philippians 3:2-8, Paul has to answer the most basic question for the Philippians: What is a Christian? How do I know if I'm a Christian? Let's learn together with the Philippians as Paul goes back to basics.
The second half of an interview with Scot Case of the National Retail Federation, one of the nation's foremost experts on green retailing. Scot and Dave discuss the innovative ways that manufacturers and retailers strive to connect their products and their marketing campaigns with the sought-after values of environmental sustainability and social responsibility.
EP273 - Amazon FBA Roll-ups with Alex Kopco of Forum Brands Alex Kopco is the Founder and COO of Forum Brands, a roll-up of digitally-native consumer brands selling via Amazon. In this interview we discuss Alex's experiences at Target and Amazon prior to founding Forum Brands. We talk about Forum Brands specific business model and their unique tools and expertise for Amazon sellers, the Amazon FBA Roll-up trend in general, and the future of commerce. Episode 273 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday August 19, 2021. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 273 being recorded on Thursday august 19 20 21 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:40] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott showed listeners Jason as you and mr. snow two of my favorite topics are Amazon and Entrepreneurship lately there's been a lot of exciting intersections in that area as different companies have been started to kind of quote-unquote roll-up Amazon FBA Sellers and explore a. House of Brands kind of concept leveraging Amazon so we're going to dig into that topic tonight and joining us on the podcast to help us explore that is Alex kopco he is the CEO and founder of form brands Alex welcome to the show. Alex: [1:18] Thank you so much super excited to be here guys. Jason: [1:21] Alex we're thrilled to have you and Scott, that Scott wasn't just giving you lip service these are his two favorite topics so he's going to be super annoying to talk to, but before we jump into form Brands which we are excited to get to we always like to give listeners a little bit of a taste about our guest, backgrounds and how you came in your role and if I have it right I think you have kind of a perfect background for your current role. Alex: [1:48] I do yeah it's true I have spent, really the last decade in e-commerce I got my start working for Target specifically for target.com at the time when target.com was actually still being powered by Amazon Target, little known fact was the largest seller on Amazon's Marketplace back when I was there and I was part of the team, that was rolling target.com off of the Amazon platform, which was a great first experience in my career to see what this whole e-commerce thing was about working for especially a big box retailer and one is well respected as Target and is good at merchandising and all the great things that Target does it really did feel like the wild west despite it being a 50 year old company and then I transitioned was looking for just a change in life a change in scenery and you know the winters in Minneapolis can be pretty brutal and so I actually had the opportunity to go work for Amazon and Seattle where I over a number of years had basically every retail job that you can imagine at the company also did a stint at Amazon as a product manager where I was working on Amazon's physical retail stores team. [3:08] The non grocery version which was super super interesting a ton of Technology went into powering the Amazon stores as well and so I oversaw some of the technology aspects there and really, over my course of my career at Amazon fell in love with the power of data the power of. [3:26] You know under understanding customers based on what they do as well as what they say and being able to provide you know surprise and Delight moments for them regardless of whether they were online or in stores and for me you know my passion for entrepreneurship since these are Scott's two favorite things Amazon entrepreneurship. [3:45] Sort of nurtured at a very young age and happy to delve into my memory Palace there but, the the impetus for really leaving Amazon to strike out on my own was predicated on they just ongoing shift to e-commerce and the adoption and of course you know the covid-19 pandemic has, greatly sped that up but it was always a fascinating space for me and so really just had that itch and decided that the time was right at my career to make that leap. Jason: [4:15] That is awesome and so just just so I'm being perfectly clear that our listeners you loved Amazon so much that when Target stopped working with them you quit and joined Amazon. Alex: [4:25] In as many words yeah sure let's go with that hahaha. Scot: [4:32] Jason you are the chief digital officer of Target right do I have that right. Jason: [4:35] Yes one of yes. Alex: [4:37] Wrong Jason Goldberg goldberger. Scot: [4:39] Oh gosh I get that confused. Alex: [4:41] I have to confess Jason I did a double take when I first saw your name and was like this can't possibly be goldberger and then realized that I was adding an ER to your name. Jason: [4:50] Alex to make matters more confusing a you should know that the day that Jason joined Target I got three 800 LinkedIn invites from from target employees. Alex: [5:01] One of those might have been me Jason. When Jason joined he and I I forget how this happened but he and I was basically in the first meeting he ever had it Target and. Then I was in a number of subsequent meetings and so we just sort of kept running into each other and it became a running joke over the rest of my time at Target which was not that much longer that every time you ran into each other it was just you know one of those moments so it's been fun to watch Jason's career evolve. Jason: [5:33] Yeah yeah. Nobody cares but like the overlaps are are super complicated I've actually worked with Target for an awfully long time in fact I was in a conference room in Minneapolis on 9/11 with Jeff Bezos. Doing the Amazon contract the the day that the Twin Towers was hit and did a lot of work with Steve Eastman and Michael Francis and although. Alex: [5:59] Yeah yeah. Jason: [6:00] So I do have a sort of a Target history and then of course I'm at publicist which owns Sapient which was the big team that helped stand up target.com when you guys moved off of them. Alex: [6:12] That's right project Everest. Jason: [6:14] Exactly so lots of overlaps but, as per usual I just talk about all this stuff well you actually did it so so we're excited to hear about it from you but I think Scott is undoubtedly going to ask you some Amazon trivia questions first. Scot: [6:33] Yeah yes so it must have been interesting you know I haven't been as deep as you guys have at Target but I have spent a lot of time at Amazon seems like a big culture difference there what was that like. Alex: [6:46] Yeah it was a big culture difference I think the biggest difference in my experience was I was. [6:56] Well there's two two components to this first and foremost I felt like I had a tremendous amount of responsibility from the very very first day at Amazon Amazon having built much of its own technology internally you know there were there were safeguards there were checks and balances you couldn't really screw anything up but I had a lot of control over, Mi Piel which you know when I would interview people or when people would join the team I would sort of like in my business too and I was a better manager and video games for a number of years and I would liken it to my little video games or my little comic book shop on the street corner and you know we would talk about what is our window front look like today we've got to walk our store and make sure that you know some kid didn't spit gum on our floor and so it was it was very much that feel and I had the power to keep things clean and sort of do what I thought was in the best interest of customers. [7:54] Target on the other hand it is a company that has one of the most iconic brands on the planet you see that Bullseye and you just instantaneously know even if you're not, from America we pretty much know what Target is and so with that you know with, with great power comes great responsibility with great branding comes great responsibility and so my experience at Target was a little bit different in that, a we were big you're really big when I joined Amazon we weren't that big at the time and I work for Amazon Canada so we were really not that big. [8:27] Target was big and so the the conversations with vendors the responsibility that we had two guests You know despite being, working for the e-commerce arm of Target we took. Sort of the brand very very very seriously and everything was in the spirit of ensuring that people when they, interacted with that Bulls I had the best possible experience and so it was it was just a different ethos right it was a different mindset, and one worked great for one company for the last five decades the other was kind of making it up as they went along and now have become one of Earth's largest companies and there were no guarantees either way but it certainly was a very interesting, mindshift and I learned a lot of both to be totally honest with you and a lot of my reasoning for going to work for Amazon was not because Target rolled off Amazon and then I went to work for Amazon but it was because I felt like I actually wanted both sides of that coin I wanted to both have the big box retail how do you how do you take. A legacy brand and bring it into the digital world and, what about that disruption what what about that company that is leading that disruption leading the efforts of bringing retail into the digital world and so. It was a little bit selfishly I just wanted to be as well as well-balanced as I possibly could be. Scot: [9:55] So did you work for Amazon Canada the whole time are you kind of bounce between the u.s. and Canada. Alex: [10:00] So I work for Amazon Canada when I was in retail eCommerce retail for the whole time I did work very closely with my US based counterparts I worked on the initiative which is now known as narf but internally was known as Naf n which was the unification of the North American supply chain I supported the launch of Amazon Mexico and so you know one of the benefits of working for a smaller, arm within a big company as you have a lot of resources at your disposal but you also have a lot of latitude to try things I launched which prime in Canada when we bought which I brought virtual bundling technology to Canada's a twenty-five-year-old no nothing in the tech space which was incredibly interesting and again really started to give me that feel for the power of Technology, and and and Building Technology that can enable anybody in the company to be successful not just the people who know how to wield the technology. Scot: [11:03] A lot of people that have worked at Amazon that start companies they bring a lot of the management principles over is that something you plan on doing or you're just like starting with the clean white board. Alex: [11:15] Man yeah Amazon's culture is it is definitive and we certainly have borrowed, in many cases inadvertently a lot of the principles you know one of our our core leadership principles is bias for Action we have one that is called act like an owner we have one called the best ideas when which is you know, hybrid of is write a lot and invented simplify and we did this sort of inadvertently but you have to admit the principles are pretty darn good. And you know Dave Glick and I saves over at Flex we often and he does a lot of post on LinkedIn talking about the impact that Amazon's culture had on him and how he brings that to flex and I a lot of what he talks about resonates very deeply and we kind of joke about you know once an Amazonian always an Amazonian it always comes back up in some in some fashion. Scot: [12:09] Yeah someone that's an outsider and having interacted with all the different tech companies the other ones have these like little Pro way things like, yep what does it do no evil or be don't be evil or something where's the Amazons when you know and they end up being mocked by all the employees at the end of the Amazon ones they just seem so much more solid and and you know I've seen the document where they give case studies and then what not to do and what you know Jeff Bezos little stories around the principle so it it just has so much better thought out than any of the anything else I've ever seen. Alex: [12:46] Yeah yeah you know we. Even the most resistant employees I think drink at least a little bit of the Kool-Aid when you get there because it's impossible to avoid you can't not be in a meeting. Especially when tensions are high and this is the whole purpose of having strong leadership principles is so that when you can't be in every meeting and every discussion, you want people working for you to behave and make decisions in a way that are consistent with how you would do it that is the Hallmark of that of strong leadership principles and like you can read the everything store which I did when I was interviewing with Amazon and they say you know. Jeff has this thing about like oh the customer's always in the room leave the empty chair like we talked about customers as if they're actually in a room that's not that's not a lie that's not like a thing that you know has been spawned at like we literally do that we say, like what would the customer think about this how's that going to impact the CX like we care very very deeply and that's just one of the principles and so people use them in their vernacular and actually my wife still works for Amazon, and our friends sometimes get a little bit annoyed because occasionally she and I will be talking about a hard thing at work and we'll just default to, sort of the Amazon lingo and they're like you guys have to know how you sound to outside people which is. Not great. Scot: [14:14] Amazon Romance. Jason: [14:15] I do think the Amazon leadership principles are legit and you know have certainly contributed to their their culture surviving even as its scale, but just just a counter-argument to Scotts point they did add two new leadership principles this year and one of them basically is don't be evil. In parentheses it says two employees. Alex: [14:37] Yeah I mean. Scot: [14:40] That's just an overreaction to crying at the dust particle. Alex: [14:43] That was yeah I was there during during the infamous New York Times article it got some things right I got some things wrong. Scot: [14:55] Were you crying at your desk. Alex: [14:56] I was not personally crying at my desk no and I don't know anyone who did but I also would not say that I knew every single person at Amazon either. [15:13] Um It's fun fun for me not that much fun for probably listeners but I'll just give you the anecdote, Jeff is like a rare unicorn around Seattle and anytime you see him it is a Jeff sighting, and people will like stop what they're doing and immediately run back to their desks to tell everybody that they had a Jeff sighting and my only judge sightings really came from from the stage, at the All Hands meetings I was fortunate enough to work on some projects that one just do it Awards which is one of the awards where Jeff gives out a Nike shoe and there's a whole story behind that and so my interaction was limited to the. Jeff announcing a thing on the stage in my face being up on a on a wall that was those are my only sightings. Scot: [16:12] Nice to get picture of you and Jeff. Alex: [16:14] I did not yeah yeah yeah. Scot: [16:15] We can Photoshop at Jason's of Photoshop Drupal will create one for. Alex: [16:21] Yeah you can you can put my face on. Jason: [16:22] I'll put all three of us. Alex: [16:24] There you go yeah with chassis so when I was at Amazon actually co-founded an internal employee network called connected Amazon. And it really sort of started actually it started from Target honestly because one thing that Target does exceptionally well is they have all of these sort of like. [16:46] Affinity groups isn't there like employee networks and there's like an acapella group and there's you know the women who ride motorcycles group, and so I was a member of all these different sort of Target networks and I got to meet the global VP of Lego and I got to meet you know higher-ups at LinkedIn and it just was always really fascinating to me and sort of. [17:09] Made me feel really happy that I work for Target and when I started at Amazon they had a finity networks but they didn't do a lot. I mean they were they were sort of identity based and it was not. The programming just wasn't as robust as what you got from the Grassroots Target organizations and so a friend of mine and. A couple of other people got together I must have been there for months at the time, and started this group connected Amazon to try to provide some some amount of programming for that and Andy Jesse was actually kind enough to be one of our fireside chat speakers, and we booked the biggest room that they had on campus at the time I think it could fit about 400 people. And we had 400 people like an hour and a half before the fireside chat even started and so we had all these people live streaming and all the like conference rooms and one of the buildings there and from there you know it kind of took on a life of its own so I credit Andy for you know really making connected Amazon as big of a deal as it has become which I think now they've got 30 40 thousand amazonians are like registered members of connected Amazon and they've got a nice big budget and full-time people doing programming and that all came out of the grass roots. Jason: [18:28] Very cool so truth be told we could probably do Amazon stories all night and be perfectly happy but I do want to talk about foreign Brands obviously so before we jump into that into much detail Scott kind of alluded to the business model but can you kind of give us the foreign Brands elevator pitch. Alex: [18:48] Yeah so you know Scott is right in that there are a number of groups really around the world now who are looking to acquire Amazon FBA businesses do a sort of brand of Brands roll them together we fall into that but we think about ourselves a little bit differently I think the moniker that gets thrown around a lot is is aggregator. We don't see ourselves as that and you'll. Probably based on my background understand why you know our model is not to do a high volume of deals it's too it's to be principled and disciplined. In the deals that we do do and we are much more focused on building, a concentrated portfolio and specific categories that we believe we can turn into like household Staples and so actually as much as I love Amazon and again you're right we could probably spend you know two hours just swapping stories about that. Our goal is to. [19:52] Take fledgling brands that we believe have a lot of potential and put them wherever the customers who want to shop for those products are shopping and that maybe on Amazon and we hope that it is but even if it's not, we'll find ways to make sure that our products are available for the customers who want to buy them and so, what that means is we might review a thousand deals a year and will acquire a handful of them rather than you know. Does it meet our basic minimum criteria if yes then we'll proceed and so it's just a little bit of a different a different mindset for us and it causes our employees to make decisions differently which is. And literally the document that we have when we due diligence is called the what you have to believe document it's do we actually believe in this brand can it actually become a consumer household staple. If yes then there's a whole bunch of other criteria that we review if no we're okay passing on a deal and it's nothing against the brand owner it's nothing against the seller we're just very disciplined for what we're looking for. Scot: [20:58] And then so it is a busy space so how would you help help me kind of have a mental map of how you guys fit in so there's there's thrashy oh there's like one out of Austin whose name I can't remember there's a couple others, how would you kind of feel that you guys differentiate from from the pack. Alex: [21:20] Yeah we're we differentiate in two ways first and foremost like I was describing where operators first. Right we my two co-founders both come from the investing World they run a very efficient Ma, process the other kind of oversees the holding company in the structure within I oversee all things related to Brand growth and I have a team of probably fifty percent X amazonians who have have a similar mindset as me which is again we build we believe in the power of a brand and we believe in, brand Equity we believe in the direct-to-consumer space as a way of making sure that were able to reach customers who get genuine value out of our products, and so that's us was the most exciting thing so we're again very selective in our deals secondarily is our Tech and Scott we were kind of, bantering about this you know before we started recording but we are, highly highly highly focused on building and integrated omni-channel system, internal to form Brands and this is not this is not meant to be a knock to any of the software out in the world but my belief is that. [22:39] Is that there is value to Building Technology that suits the company that we are trying to build rather than having to build a company that suits the technology that's available to us today. And again it sounds like a semantic difference but it's a big mindset shift, from my team where every single employee regardless of whether you're in Mna Corporate Finance or marketing you're all product managers every single person is tasked with finding ways to automate the automatable use data to make decisions ask for systems that we either don't have or that are underdeveloped so that we can build something that works for form Brands and makes each and every one of our employees more efficient. Scot: [23:23] Give us an idea of the scale like where are you guys maybe Capital raised or number of Brands kind of in your your pack if you will anything you can share but obviously don't want anything super confidential. Alex: [23:35] Sure sure so we're not disclosing the number of brands that we have right now but we did recently announced a 27 million dollar series a equity raise led by Norwest Venture partners are seed was done by and FX at a Palo Alto and so you know that that 27 million that we recently raised is is being put two purposes one hiring hiring like crazy building out the team of world-class operators first and foremost and then secondarily is to a focus on technology and that is you know scaling up our Tech stack hiring a high-performing you know World Class Tech Team, we've got a number of data scientists and we're already finding ways to optimize our businesses that we do owned by way of machine learning it's also we actually use machine learning to help identify high quality Brands to potentially reach out to as well and so again it sort of tech underpins everything that we do and we're investing very heavily in that space. Jason: [24:43] Awesome and you kind of mentioned that you were being selective on Acquisitions like do you have. Any specific criteria like are most your criteria around Financial metrics to other particular product categories or particular. Go to market models are things that like sort of play into your your preferred portfolio companies. Alex: [25:06] Yeah so we are focused on certain categories categories that we refer to sort of colloquially as. I thought I was going to put your that word and I totally got it colloquially as consumer durables so we steer clear from food and beverage, we steer clear from you know fad related items we I mean you could really like an us to sort of, New Age Procter & Gamble where we're focused on you no pets and home and kitchen, patio lawn and garden we have you know we play in the fitness space the outdoor space and so these are really things that are like, you know you would go, to your cousin's house and open up their cabinets or look in their closet and you would find a bunch of our products there that's what we're really focused on so we will stay away from like clothing we don't do fashion brands, um and from there you know we have what we call the four pillars because as a good Amazonian I love my Frameworks, but you know it's are sort of M A decision-making framework which you know we're very transparent about when we get, into the conversation with Sellers and it's something that you know our approaches to be very seller friendly we. [26:32] Over index in the hand-holding because we want to make the deal as comfortable as possible. My co-founder Reuben who leads all the MMA efforts he still personally gets on all the calls with Sellers and so Financial profile matters category matters but again a lot there are a lot of other considerations that go into that what you have to believe what we have to believe collectively as a team as an investment committee as operators as brand builders, and so were we are. We view these deals as puzzle pieces that we look to fit together. Scot: [27:13] Is part of your strategy to so you acquire these Brands you get them you know I think there's probably some consolidation where you know what we've seen with other players is a review of the packaging bringing them over into a Consolidated marketing team usually some consolidation around sourcing and fulfillment, and then you get your technology platform let me play pause there is that is that you guys do all those things. Alex: [27:41] Yep absolutely I mean I think a lot of that is you know and most of the players us included are what at most two two and a half years old so these are like there's still a lot of table Stakes stuff. To be done with these with these Brands as we're fitting them into our process and our portfolio for sure. Scot: [28:00] Gonna think I know the answer this one but I'll ask anyway so then you know one strategy and I'm obviously a big proponent of this is if you can do acts on Amazon you can do you kind of typically do you know the same amount call it you know X again over on other channels is part of your your plan to then go across different online channels with the brands or do you really want to just kind of focus on Amazon for a while and DoubleDown based on on the platform Super Bowl. Alex: [28:31] My Amazonian this is about to show here so we have what we have the concept of Amazon's day one we have we have play books which we called a0 and A1, and the day Zero playbooks are sort of that table Stakes stuff can we consolidate at ports, can we you know is are there opportunities for us to redo the packaging, will get deep into the reviews and apply NLP to reviews to make sure that we have a good understanding of what customers like and equally important what they don't like about the products that were acquiring and so we'll do all that day 0 stuff, to sort of get our house in order and that is predominantly Amazon focused right most of these businesses, do the vast majority of their sales on Amazon and so. [29:20] For us to be world-class operators like we must be world-class at Amazon that that is core to the strategy. From there we move into day one because at Amazon it's always day one, so really it's day forever but we call a day one and those are the things that a our technology Powers right and Scott you know the power of optimization of being able to have an integrated platform where, data from one part of the business marketing. Informs actions in another part of the business product development and design packaging pricing right and so our ability to tie these things together these sort of disparate data points actually build a mental model and I, I'm sure that my team is so tired of the phrase mental model because I preach it constantly but that's really what it's about for us as building that mental model so. [30:10] That was a long-winded way of answering your question which is yes we will be opportunistic brand by brand, um in channels off Amazon and you know we're operating in eight countries right now we are operating across five or six channels and so our footprint is already, diverse and you know were a year old at this point. Jason: [30:37] Awesome side note you can always tell a tech first company when they start counting at day 0 instead of day one. Alex: [30:45] Exactly I'm so glad Jason that you picked up on that. Jason: [30:49] I'm tracking and so that reminds me I do want to kind of. Cook down into your Tech stack for a second but before we do I'm just always curious like it seems obvious like one of the big. I'm sort of investment theories here would be you acquire these companies and you have. Unique expertise capabilities and Tech that then causes those companies to be more valuable. You help them become more efficient on Amazon more successful etc etc and that that accelerates the value of your investment. Each of those companies probably had some unique skill sets like I'm always curious. Like does it work out that those companies are able to help each other very much and are using like. Are you providing most of the value-add or are you acquiring a lot of value-add from these individual companies that then benefits the rest of the portfolio. Alex: [31:48] Yeah yeah you know currently it has been. The former we are providing most of the value-add. So where we are actually seeing things move is as the space becomes. More well-known I mean there are so many sellers right so many many many of them do still do not know that an exit. Is an option for them many still are under the misconception that e-commerce. I don't want to do this anymore I guess I'll just shut my store down I'll go on Permanent Vacation mode and that is tragic to me. Because they have loyal customers they're generating real cash and so it's a shame for companies to shut it down what we're seeing more and more in the conversations that we're having with. [32:42] Perspective Cellars is. [32:45] This desire to remain plugged into the brand and frankly this is how we win deals. In a lot of cases is because we care very deeply you know Simon sinek has one of the most viewed, TED Talks ever right we should start with why and that is how we start we start with why did the entrepreneur start this business, and sometimes it was like I don't know I was in college and needed some extra beer money or I had to pay rent or whatever other times it was you know my mother had this malady that caused her not to be able to do a certain thing and so I found this product and decided that maybe it could help other people right and every single story is different and so we learn a lot in the stories but we also do learn a lot from the sellers and we're super flexible with our pricing structure we don't have sort of a. We don't really have like a take-it-or-leave-it style we want a suit. [33:44] Sellers in the ways that that works the best for them and so some are willing to take a little less up front but they want to benefit and participate in the upside over the next year we're happy to do that and the extent that they want to be plugged in and. Launch more products and use our Tech and you know get support from our team, we're happy to do that as well and so it really is a case-by-case basis there's no sort of one sweeping, you know this is how we do it forever flexibility is kind of the name of the game for us in a lot of ways. Jason: [34:16] Got it and so let's talk about that that Tech stack for a second I'm always curious what people. Decided to build and find the most value and building like are you mostly building tools around. Catalog management and digital shelf for you doing like magic pricing logic are you doing like ad. Buying and placement and all that like what what sort of problems are you trying to solve with the tax debt with your Tech stack for to the sellers. Alex: [34:46] I'd be curious to hear what your next two items would be Jason because everything you just said and more actually where we started was we started with an engine that I alluded to earlier that helps us identify high quality assets that meet our criteria that's where we began, and so we you know started plugging into a variety of datasets from a variety of companies, tying it together you know applying our own modeling on top of it and now use that to identify brands, the tertiary benefit from that is when you have a lot of data at a category level. [35:30] You can start to also Benchmark yourself, and so we've been able to you know build benchmarks and say what should what should this company be doing what could this company look like what what if scenario A through Z happened where would we fall, in this space and from there it's kind of grown organically and so catalog management I mean you can't run a direct-to-consumer business. On one channel let alone many channels let alone in multiple GEOS if you don't have a strong sort of item master so we certainly, started their focused very heavily there in the early days to make sure that we had, a sound way of tying all of these data points together across customers across orders across products and brands. [36:17] And from there yeah I mean there are natural extensions in all facets right pricing drives forecast, and our forecast drives our inventory Buys in our inventory buys Drive how much warehousing space we need or our consolidation at various ports are ordering Cadence and. Guys let me know if you want to talk about the state of the supply chain right now around the world but that is a huge problem in and of itself and so we've invested heavily in, Tech in Building Technology that gives our people visibility to every single step of the supply chain so that we know, day by day minute by minute where goods are. Because as I'm sure you guys know if you fall out of stock like falling out of stock especially on Amazon as a really really really really big deal, because not only is there the Miss sales from that but you also have to then reinvest to you know get your advertising spun back up and to reclaim potentially your spot in Search and that's really expensive to do and so, The Economic Opportunity there is not just well we have you know Air Freight. For extra holding costs or Miss sales but it's also advertising its also customer experience it's also, bundles which also fall out of stock if a component is out of stock and so the blast radius is wider but we have a way to tie that all together and be able to make smarter economic decisions based on that. Jason: [37:46] Yeah that's a super important point and I'm still shocked how many people don't don't get that but if you're out of stock for three days out of a month at Target and you was three days worth of sales. Um but you're out of stock at Amazon and what happens is you fall to what's called page 2 of search which is equivalent to being delisted. And then you've got to earn your way back and so that's funny like my, question about your text deck I'm always curious how people answer because well in the old world those were all separate tools and you could kind of buy best-in-class tools from all these different vendors and each one did a point thing but my hypothesis in like, Dynamic digital shelf world is. All those tools have to be integrated because they're all totally dependent on each other like you like I'm shocked how many Amazon sellers are buying ads on out of stock. Alex: [38:43] Oh my gosh. Jason: [38:44] And like you know I mean it like just all these things are so so interrelated in a in a way that, that is a very different model than traditional brick-and-mortar retail. Alex: [38:56] That's right you know we were opening up our office and one of the. Super lame ideas that I had for a decoration was to build a physical value chain of paper chain and. I thought it'd be really fun to you know first and foremost has have everybody's names on it because Dan the day you don't have a company if you're only as good as the people that work for you that is. That is true without exception. Over the long run at least but but you're absolutely right right like the interrelationship between every single. [39:33] Touchpoint of a company whether you're again MMA marketing for and growth supply chain. Every single decision that you make has a ripple effect on every other person and so you know when we think about our organizational structure we try to be as flat as we can be we purposefully encourage people to meet, their counterparts in other organizations so that they're not just sitting in a silo and saying well I'm on the marketing team, and that is a supply chain problem not my problem actually it is because you're about to blow your budget getting that thing back on page 1 off the page of Doom because this thing went out of stock so you need to be in lockstep so you can pull back on the spend so that you're not buying spending 40 percent of your budget on out-of-stock, right especially if it had a sin God forbid falls out of stock it's a big deal and people need to be talking about it but my biggest thing and I beat this drum constantly is the problem with having. You know 25 Point Solutions is then you have 25 dashboards you have to look at you have 25 systems you have to log into and you have to make the connections yourself and sorry but like human brain it gets tired people have a bad night people have a bad day and you make mistakes but by being able to pull it all together visualize it in one space. [40:55] And see. How pulling lever a effects object Z like that that is what we constantly push ourselves for and constantly drive toward. Jason: [41:07] Yeah yeah and so you kind of answered you ask me like what would the next things on my list be for your road map and you kind of the name them right its supply chain and analytics for those, for those very reasons you just covered sidenote are you hosting your Tech stack on Azure did you did you go Google Cloud platform or azure. Alex: [41:26] Wow I think you're kidding but no Amazon Amazon web services all the way. Jason: [41:33] I'm shocked that makes a lot of sense now but as soon as you try to expand off of Amazon to those other platforms your that's going to become a. Alex: [41:41] Yeah I know we use some gcp products we use looker we use five Tran for some API connection so we're you know we started on AWS because frankly. They gave us free credits and so why are they sticky with that. Jason: [41:57] Yeah yeah that I hear that's a decent business. Um the you open the door to a super interesting topic right now which is like supply chain and product liability particularly around holiday this point. Um earlier this week Target and Walmart both had earnings calls and they both assured investors that they were well positioned for holiday but why. You hear from any of the suppliers and it sounds a little dicey no one can hire anyone everybody's Factory workers are on strike. Um tons of disruptions in Asia right now going the wrong way I'm on pandemic stuff like what what your POV for Holiday are we are we in for some pain or is it overblown. Alex: [42:44] I mean by your gifts now is my POV you know it I think it's going to be tough I think it's going to be tough I don't think, well I don't know covid is the big. The big asterisk to everything I'm about to say because we've already seen in Ningbo for example the poor shut down for a couple of days because of a couple of covid cases they're one of our factories got completely flooded by the typhoon I mean, there are already so many issues beyond the fact that there are at any given time 50 boats trying to get into the port of LA and. Some of those containers belong to us some of those containers belong to Target and Walmart and so we're kind of all collectively in. This for lack of a better term we're in this boat together the difference is. [43:40] The Big Box retailers and a lot of the big players have you know a much much larger physical Warehouse footprint where presumably. They have seen these potential issues coming and have you know, bought Goods in advance of meeting to get them on store shelves you know we certainly have but as early as we thought we were, we probably could have even been a month or two earlier because we're still seeing delays really across the board. Um and it's and a lot of it is international a lot of it is domestic right like will get bumped from you know delivery from point A to point B and you know Kentucky to New Jersey and you know UPS won't show up. And that's not a knock on UPS like maybe their truck driver got covid right I mean there's so many small things that compound the delays. I think it's going to be tough. And I hope I'm wrong like I'm saying this but I really hope I'm wrong I hope we all get to sleep very happily at night because we had, great holiday season kids are happy and we're all happy I really hope that's the case but we're preparing for the worst. Jason: [44:53] I know that it's possible for both to be true right like Target and Walmart could have enough leverage that they do believe they're going to be okay from a supply chain and it could be the rest of the world that. Um struggles but right side note on the demand I think Home Depot also had an earnings call this this week and they mentioned that they got there first. It's mid-august they got their first shipment of Halloween goods and they're already out. Alex: [45:22] Oh man oh man. Jason: [45:25] Yeah so / your shop early comment I think yet not only is availability a problem but also. As you know everything's just getting more expensive because the cost of those containers and shipping and everything just keeps, keeps going up and that that leads me to part 2 of why I'm not going to sleep this holiday period last holiday Scott coin This this term that got a lot of Attraction ship a get in, and we talked about you know the fact that like obviously covid drove everyone online and so there was this you know. [45:58] Outsized demand for for e-commerce fulfillment and you know UPS and FedEx have a finite ability to flex to meet that. The I'm curious like it seems like it's going to be an equal or bigger problem, this year and I'm chuckling because the United States Postal Service just announced that they discovered this new business practice, the FedEx and UPS have been doing called surcharges so now even even US Postal Service is looking to do holiday surcharges and they're you know all the quotas for Holiday are already out, and of course your friends and Amazon are you know largely the one and only, retailer add scale that owns their own a lot of their own Last Mile so I do you is is that an advantage for being on the Amazon platform are they likely to run out of capacity and constrain fbas like do you. Worried about fulfillment this year and how that's going to impact holiday at all. Alex: [47:02] I am less worried about outbound fulfillment as I am inbound because of what you just said which is capacity constraints. And you know any listener who has an Amazon business knows that. [47:16] There was a change this year we're while because last year Amazon started imposing, skew level caps right and so even if you had a portfolio that was concentrated around one or two top selling products that do 85 percent of your sales you know at least you could probably be okay on those even if you hit caps on sort of your tail selection they moved to a model which is, it is at the account level now a cat and we were all super happy about that because we said well we have all these new products that we're launching and because they have no sales history we can only Trickle, 20 units in at a time we followed a stock another 20 units we fall out of stock in the problem with the domestic delays is we could be out of stock for three weeks. On that right even if our warehouse is next door to the Fulfillment center, we could still not have our products sellable again for 3 weeks and there is nothing that will kill your cold start product launch faster thinking out of stock, right and so that that has been an issue throughout the year and they kept saying you know July 1st the Caps will be lifted and they were and some cases and they weren't and other cases and so my big concern is just that we won't have the capacity, available to us at FBA to get all of the goods in that we need to get in and so even if we are have a dozen two dozen. [48:40] You know, thousand shipments waiting there's nothing that you can really do there's no one that you can pick up and call and say hey can you like you know nudge nudge wink wink get my stuff in faster you just can't do it and so you just wait. [48:52] And that's a really uncomfortable spot to be in so you know and then and so we operate in Canada right we have seen on Amazon Canada where, the whole fulfillment centers have shut down due to covid and you see promised dates go from 2 days for Prime shipping to seven days for Prime shipping no matter which zip code you put in no matter where you say you are in Canada we've had some of our products that. [49:17] The prime delivery date is a Six-Day window and that has been the case for months. And so outbound from that perspective it does depressed demand that's why I'm saying by stuff sooner because you might get a Six-Day promise, but yeah I'm more concerned about the inbound and being able to keep Goods on the digital shelves through the through the entirety of the holiday season, because you can't you can't remanufacture that demand and if we come out super super heavy like, maybe it helps us through Lunar New Year which was also pretty tough last year but yeah it's going to be really interesting and so again we're doing everything that we can to try to. You know make sure that all of our ducks are in a row all of our goods are Stateside everything's ready to go. On the chance that we can actually get you know Goods moved in but it'll be a struggle. Jason: [50:14] Yeah yeah and as you alluded to the Canadian Supply chains even more fragile because one of those sled dog teams get sick and a whole Province gets cut off namjoo. Alex: [50:24] I had I had Xboxes the year Xbox One released idexx boxes on a train. In the middle in the dead center of the country and we literally sent a helicopter to pick the Xboxes up, the train and fly them to Toronto so that we could actually meet because we took pre-orders right and we had to meet release date delivery on those Xboxes so we've done some crazy stuff to make it work in Canada. Jason: [50:52] Yeah that's a whole new new definition of air air freight geez. The the drones will hopefully sell help with that I did want to you mentioned that you were seeing kind of the the caps and quotas moving from from skews two categories, one interesting hypothesis I've heard from a bunch of like reasonably high volume Amazon sellers at the moment is. As the catalog has gotten so huge and there's like some counts like 800 million skus in the catalog now, um there's a hypothesis that Amazon is strongly preferencing new skus and so a lot of people have said that they feel like. The the caps and quotas that they're getting on, mature skews that in the old days like your quota would have just gotten bigger every year based on your sales history that they're now running into this new problem, Amazon is reserving a fair amount of space for new stuff instead of the old stuff and I can imagine, that's scary and or problematic in in your business model have you seen that at all is that viable. Alex: [52:03] I have seen shatter about it that is we have empirically not seen that to be the case for our brands. We also don't operate in every category you know I'm sure there are plenty of higher-volume you know on a brand by brand. Basis sellers out there who are seeing crazy stuff, for us like I said we're launching a whole host of new products and it's 20 units at a time and then you sell out but now your cap is 60, you're like awesome I have three times the cap but it's still 60 it's not 6,000 which is what we would need to actually you know generate the volume that's going to get us on page one and so. While our you know top-selling products we are running up against caps there as well it has not been. [52:56] The issue really comes from when you have a brand level cap your best selling products are inevitably going to take up most of the calf. And in order for us to hold a rational level of Safety stock it doesn't leave a whole lot of extra space for the new products and so you know again we're not really seeing that that. You know thought bear out in our businesses doesn't mean that they aren't. But yeah it just we don't we don't pun intended we don't put a lot of stock in that right now. Scot: [53:35] The, one question we've been following this kind of Amazon versus Shopify debate and we've had some folks on talking about headless Commerce, have you guys thought about you know another big strategy for anyone selling on Amazon is it open up your own website have you guys chosen a platform there or do you have any opinions about kind of where the e-commerce platform Wars are going. Alex: [53:59] I have a lot of opinions we are so the direct to Consumer space, is is what we firmly believe is like very core to our ability as a company to build long-term value. To have a website that customers interact with engage with our loyal to no no to find products from we believe that score for some Brands more than others right, we have inherited. By way of acquisition most people just spin up a Shopify account and then fulfill the FBA and so we have predominantly leaned into Shopify as a platform for now I think. [54:51] We are still so focused. At this time especially at this time in making sure that we're in stock on Amazon and that we have sort of that nuts and bolts Day Zero operational excellence with Amazon which is core to our portfolio that we haven't, we haven't we haven't dedicated a tremendous amount of resources and fully kicking the tires on all of the Headless options all of the other platform options we've had conversations with all of them we haven't actually, made a concerted effort to say we are 100% doing away with Shopify in favor of X for these reasons we haven't seen the need quite frankly. Scot: [55:35] And then so you've been in the retail game for quite a while one of our kind of favorite ending questions is if you kind of think forward let's say 3 or 5 years kind of take you out of the, the current where do you where do you see e-commerce? Alex: [55:52] Wow I asked a flavor of this question when I interview people. Scot: [55:56] We're turning it on you. Alex: [55:58] So What this is bringing up is feelings reactions to a lot of the changes around consumer privacy you know iOS 14 and all of their for the platforms, that were. You know I'll say hoovering up data and applying it and sometimes great ways and in other times may be less great ways I. [56:29] It hurts me a little bit inside because what I believe is that actually. [56:36] The the ability for us to build like to use data to build products that Delight customers. That is core to again building long-term value and I also believe in this is getting back to the question that the ability. To reach customers where they want to shop with the products that they're most interested or that that suit them the best I think we've taken a step back from that. And my hope is that we will continue to evolve responsibly. As a society and as companies as Leaders of sort of this new wave of retail in a way that can still surprising Delight customers that can deliver product innovations that are meaningful and they're not just you know we, wiggle a little here we do a little dongle there and today it's a new product because it's actually fundamentally not like I love you. The next 3 to 5 years as an evolution toward getting even smarter about the products that were building even better at, reaching consumers who are actually interested in what we're, selling so that you're not just on your endless Scroll of social media and you're getting hit with ads that are is completely irrelevant and it sort of degrades your experience on that platform and the degrades the brand experience and that's what we care about we care about the brand experience. Jason: [58:02] That would be awesome if it plays out we'll have to see ox. Alex: [58:05] We will see. Jason: [58:06] Exactly well hopefully you'll be like retired and fabulously wealthy so you'll just be be watching it from Jeff Bezos jot but that's gonna have to be where we leave it because it's happening again we've used up an hour of our listeners time. I know it goes fast we've certainly enjoyed chatting with you if listeners have any comments or questions they're encouraged to, hit us up on Twitter or leave us a note on our Facebook page and as always if you enjoyed this episode we sure would be grateful if you jump on iTunes and give us that five-star review. Scot: [58:41] Alex we really appreciate you taking time out of your busy schedule dominating the Amazon aggregation world and if folks want to find you online what's kind of the best place to you are you on the the Twitter box are my spacer where do you hang out online. Alex: [58:58] Oh my gosh do I still have a MySpace account that's kind of scary. Jason: [59:02] He has a Twitch account he's he's twitch he's a twitch streamer. Alex: [59:06] That's right yeah no you can find me on Twitch no I am predominantly on LinkedIn you can connect this me follow me on LinkedIn shoot me a message there feel free to drop me a line Alex at foreign Brands.com otherwise I am on the Twitter box but I am. Sadly not as much of a contributor as I wish that I that I wish that I could be I'm just not that funny. Scot: [59:28] Well I think you did pretty good here on the show you were funnier than Jason which is what's actually kind of a low bar but. Jason: [59:33] Yeah don't I don't let that stop me for god sakes. Scot: [59:35] Do you think is the most activity out of his grumpy old man tweets. But that's a topic for another show but thanks we really appreciate the time and. Jason: [59:49] Until next time happy commerceing.
John is joined by Scot Munroe once again to discuss Roma's 3-1 victory over Fiorentina.Thank you to our newest Patrons Riley Callaghan, Abdullah Alkhudary, and Evgeni Bozhilov, and to all of our current Patrons who make this show possible. You can support RomaPress by going to www.Patreon.com/RomaPress, benefits include: early access to episodes, extras episodes, and plenty more.Our website: www.romapress.netScot Munroe of ASRoma 360: @scot_munroeA Big Heads Media Podcast★ Support this podcast on Patreon ★
John is joined by Scot Munroe to preview Roma's chances for the upcoming season under Jose Mourinho and discuss the opening fixture versus Fiorentina (2:00). Then Matt Falcona joins to give his first edition of the Falcona Forecast for the season (52:16). Thank you to our newest Patron, Mike Dimino, and to all of our current Patrons who make this show possible. You can support RomaPress by going to www.Patreon.com/RomaPress, benefits include: early access to episodes, extras episodes, and plenty more.Our website: www.romapress.netScot Munroe of ASRoma 360: @scot_munroeThe Falcona Forecast: @FalconaForecastA Big Heads Media Podcast★ Support this podcast on Patreon ★
Start your journey of advancing your Biblical Studies with Northern Seminary at http://seminary.edu/krapply Scot McKnight suggests, “A sermon is a person studying the Bible, encountering God in their own life and history, and then spewing it all out on Sunday morning for the good of the people of God.” Scot and Marshall Hatch have a conversation about the danger of pastors taking others' messages as if they were their own. Listen to this episode of Kingdom Roots to get guidance on how to keep your own well running deep.
EP272 - Q2 Ecom Data, Earnings, and Amazon News US Dept of Commerce Data In July retail sales were up 13.3% from previous July (down 1.1% from June). Year to Date sales were up 21.1% vs. 2020. Apparel is in the biggest recovery, up 63%. At peak of pandemic, restaurants lost nearly $51B/mo of sales to grocery stores. In July the gap has closed to $4B in sales. Restaurants sales for the past two months are higher than two years ago. Retail sales for all of Q2 2021 grew 28.2% from Q2 2020, e-commerce in Q2 grew 9% during the same period (due to the very high covid driven e-com last year). E-Com was 13.3% of retail sales for Q2. Q2 Retail Earnings Reports Walmart – US Comp Store sales up 5.2%, E-Commerce up 6% Target – US Comp Store sales up 8.9%, E-Commerce up 10% Home Depot– US Comp Store sales up 3.4%, E-Commerce flat Lowes– US Comp Store sales down 2.2%, E-Commerce up 7% Stores selling essential goods are comping against a very large 2020 basis in Q2. Most stores saw increased foot traffic driving store growth. Concerns about Covid resurgence and supply chain disruptions loom for Q3 and Q4. Amazon News NYT wrote that people now spend more at Amazon than Walmart – Jason says the number are debatable and that's besides the point. WSJ wrote Amazon Plans to Open Large Retail Locations Akin to Department Stores. We discuss Episode 272 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday August 20, 2021. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show, this is episode 272 being recorded on Thursday august 19 20 21 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:39] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott sure listeners Jason we had a little bit of a break in there you had vacation and I got to focus on car washing and it's good to be back together. Jason: [0:53] It is I had a great time but I did miss you. Scot: [0:57] Oh I did see that while you are on vacation your company won a big Walmart deal so I think they would like for you to go on vacation more often. Jason: [1:09] Yes that is the general consensus the like I have great empathy for anyone in these spaces where you have these like huge drawn-out pitches but this was like. More than five month pitch and. Not shockingly it took the the client a little longer to pick a winner then they they promise so I you were kind of. On pins and needles for a long time and then I went on vacation and we got a good result so I think all my my co-workers my the hundred of my co-workers that were involved in this pitch with me like are all eager for me to work even less than I already do. Scot: [1:48] Well I heard it was because Doug mcmillon listens to the podcast. Jason: [1:54] Yeah amongst others so Chef to all of our listeners from Walmart thank you so much for putting your trust in me and all the mean things that get said about you on the podcast all come from Scott please remember that. Scot: [2:08] Absolutely not I love Homer I probably spend more time in a Walmart than you. Jason: [2:13] That is debatable but I do know that you are a legitimate Walmart Shopper and and you have an awesome use case for Walmart. Scot: [2:25] Which one are you referring to. Jason: [2:26] I feel like Walmart is your go-to for hard to find Star Wars collectible toys. Scot: [2:34] That is true I have spent many a midnight at a Walmart waiting for the pegs the toys to be hanging from the pegs and it's just the best time to be at Walmart is the best people people watching that 12:00 to 3:00 a.m. period. Jason: [2:47] Yeah they're there are some interesting shifts that go on at a Walmart store especially the 24-hour ones. Scot: [2:57] And then I'm super jealous because on your vacation you've got to go two galaxies Edge before me and that is for the non Star Wars fan folks in the audience that is the new Star Wars attraction at both the California and Florida Disney parks. Jason: [3:16] Exactly and it was awesome we went to California Disneyland as many listeners will know I'm a dad in the body of a grandad so I have a, almost six year old son so we took him to Disneyland for the first time and generally, my my Advanced age is a disadvantage but in this one case it was an advantage because I had a much better excuse than you do to take time off from work and go to Galaxy's Edge. Scot: [3:43] Awesome well I'm bummed was it fun how would you rate it. Jason: [3:48] I highly recommend it I mean yes the whole trip was fun Galaxy's Edge lived up to my expectations and there's. Kind of too wet in the old days we would have called e-ticket rides in Galaxy's Edge. Smugglers Run on the Millennium Falcon and this much more extravagant ride called rise of the resistance and they were both awesome I would say rise of the resistance is the best ride I've ever been at an amusement park so so, totally cool totally worth it and you for sure have to go and I'll go with you when you're ready. Scot: [4:22] All right strong words were gone we'll take we'll take all the listeners will take your mom and you know some of the other folks with us. Jason: [4:31] I'm sure a lot of listeners would love to go the one that wouldn't would be my mom because my six-year-old dragged her on every roller coaster at Disneyland and he had a blast but she was like white-knuckled the entire time. Scot: [4:43] Okay so she's already checked the Box. Jason: [4:46] Exactly exactly you're not a big enough draw only the grandson is a big enough traffic to your bed. Scot: [4:53] Well I'm glad you had an awesome vacation and the last time we recorded a podcast was one of my favorite days which is Amazon earnings and today is one of your favorite days of the year this is when the US Department of Commerce who sidebar has been on the podcast they drop a big load of data what did you discover in the data. Jason: [5:15] Yeah so just side note I just to be jealous of my my month Disneyland. Got got invited to keep working with my my favorite client for for the foreseeable future and I got quarterly e-commerce data from the US Department of Commerce so that's what I call winning. But yeah let's jump into it so. We're recording this on a Thursday on Tuesday the US Department of Commerce released their monthly retail sales data so super brief. Primer recap they published data every month. For the previous month and that's called the advanced retail monthly data it's kind of a quick look at the the month it was 15 days prior. And then they publish more comprehensive set of data for two months back which would be like 45 days prior. So so that's the data that we got on Tuesday and of course we're all pretty interested in what July looked like because there was this whole kind of. [6:19] Covid recovery and people rushing back to stores in the pivot from online back to stores and then there you know had been a lot of like negative news and rebounds because of Delta and so you know it's kind of interesting to see. See how the the data swung and so in general, if you were someone that looked at month-over-month retail sales it was a Debbie Downer month so Joel I was about one percent lower than June, but as I have counseled many times on this show that's not a very important number to look at what we really want to look at is July 20 21 against July. 20/20 so so year prior data and retail sales for for this July were 13.3% higher, then last July so ordinarily that would. Um cause for a party that's a huge growth like ordinarily we see like kind of for to unit three to four percent growth year over year in total retail sales so 13% is huge. But of course. Last July was still pretty impacted by by covid so we have this weird basis and as we'll talk about later that's why most retailers are talking about year over two years at this point but so first data point. [7:44] July was a good month it was up 13 percent from the previous July. [7:51] We I also like to look at year-to-date sales so I add up all the months and January through July of this year is up 21% versus January through July of last year, which is also very healthy and again half of that period would have been pre covid versus last year so that's that's encouraging and then, there isn't a. [8:14] In awesome measurement of e-commerce in the monthly data especially the advanced monthly data but there is this thing called non store sales which is kind of the closest proxy we have to e-commerce and that's where things got interesting it was about 5.9 percent up from last year so way slower growth. Then you would normally expect for e-commerce so you normally expect retail the girl about four percent in e-commerce to grow 12 to 15% so so retail growing 13% is unusually fast and and Ecommerce growing 6% is unusually slow. But again if you think about the fact that last July a lot less people are going to stores and instead spending online. It kind of It kind of fits so I would from my perspective, there was nothing there was nothing like super anomalous in this data it's kind of where we would have expected it to be and then I like to dive into the categories and see if there's anything important in the categories and again the categories are kind of where you would expect, by far the category that's most up this year versus last year on a monthly basis and a year-to-date basis is a Peril so the apparel industry is like. [9:32] Sixty-three percent better this year than it was last year because they were just absolutely creamed by by covid last year restaurants and bars or up thirty percent over last year but then there's some some categories that actually did well in covid but are still pretty significantly up so things like furniture and home, Sporting Goods those and consumer electronics are all up significantly. Even though they generally got a covid boost so. That that is pretty interesting and then the thing that I most look at specifically related to covid is. In covid everyone bought all their food from grocery stores instead of restaurant so restaurants got creamed grocery stores did really well and so we've been watching to see if that. [10:26] Goes back to pre covid levels and it's getting awfully close so you know in. March of last year seventy percent of the calories got sold by grocery stores 30% by restaurants and that's a that's a that meant 60 billion dollars a month in sales that used to go to restaurants were going to grocery store so that's huge. And in July that Gap it became kind of, 52 versus forty eight percent so only a 4% Delta and pre covid-19 t-50 so that's that's about four and a half or five billion dollars a month, that grocery store still winning that they didn't win before covid but not surprisingly. Like people were eager to go back to restaurants and they are going back to restaurants and that's one of several indications we've seen that while. Digital grocery grew a lot during covid and it's going to keep some of those gains it does not appear to keeping all of those games and we are seeing some backslide and we're seeing that in things like like instacart sales as well. Scot: [11:40] Yeah there's been wasn't there a rumor that instacart was looking to be acquired. Jason: [11:46] Yeah yeah there's a few things out there there is a rumor that instacart was talking to doordash. And then Super interesting this week and I'll put a link to it in the show notes former guest and friend of the show Dan McCarthy who remembers the, the professor at Emory that specializes in in customer lifetime value and cohort analysis he got a big. Set of credit card panel data from Ernst research and he was able to use it to kind of. [12:20] Back into the gmv which in the restaurant business or the grocery business they actually would call govt Gross order value um and he was able to kind of figure out the size and stickiness of doordash and instacart and what he found was, instacart got a bigger covid bump than door – but that door – is much stickier and and has a much higher rate of repeat customers than instacart in fact. About 30% of he found that about 30% of door – Shoppers repeat and only about 20% of instacart Shoppers repeat and that that difference, is is very meaningful in the financial outcomes for those two companies and he kind of estimated that insta cards govt is probably around twenty three billion dollars on an annualized run rate so he kind of looked at it and said hey instacart does appear to have significant weakness versus door – and and so it kind of lien when the some Credence and some tangible Nest to the. The rumor that you know instacart might be on a covid peak in trying to sell at it's at its high we've also heard just some rumors that they're you know struggling to retain some of their there, customer Sellers and some things like that so so it's going to be an interesting space to follow. Scot: [13:48] Any other surprises from the dinner. Jason: [13:50] Nothing wildly surprising in later in this podcast we're going to talk about earnings and we're going to talk about Home Depot and Lowe's reported and so sort of a preview I would say like. Um the do-it-yourself category was a category that did really well in in covid-19, um and so you you know it's interesting to see like if that sticky if have you know as people are starting to go out more are they are they stopping the investment in their home and or are they reinvesting in their home this year is that a new habit so I've been watching the do-it-yourself space and it had modest growth. From last year so I want to from memory I want to say it was about eighteen percent up from last year and last year was a very. Hi year so that that's interesting and I won't spoil it but it's going to be that number will be even more interesting when we talk about how Lowe's and Home Depot. Scot: [14:53] Let's jump into it. Jason: [14:54] Okay so the next thing I wanted to talk about is so I mentioned that this monthly data doesn't have awesome e-commerce data in it. The US Department of Commerce publishes much better e-commerce data but they only publish a quarterly and that's why this week is so fun is because this is one of those quarter months when they publish both the monthly data and the quarterly data so we just today got the cue to e-commerce data from the US Department of Commerce and the top line here is Q to 2021 Drew about 28% from Q2 2020 and e-commerce. [15:38] I'm sorry tale so that's all of retail which like that's way higher growth than you normally see and eCommerce growth was 9% for that period so lower. Then you would normally expect to see right and again that kind of follows the trend here. E-commerce was artificially High last year and so you know even though it's growing it's growing against a bigger base and so the growth this year does not look as big. So a lot of people are you know trying to talk about. Growth on a two-year stack but that 9% growth becomes super interesting when you think back to Amazon you know Amazon got beat up because their rate of growth slowed a lot they were down to 22 percent but 22% still means you're more than growing more than twice as fast as the industry average. And as we're going to see you later like much faster than most of their competitors so so that that is pretty interesting and then a ton of news then writes like e-commerce is down. Because nine percent is lower than we would usually expect but I just want to remind people. That down doesn't mean what you think it means like like we sold more stuff online in Q2 of this year than we did Q2 of last year and Q2 of last year was amazing. It's just the rate of growth is slowing down. Scot: [17:02] This is where I always get confused because the headlines that came across my CNBC trackers were retail sales were down 1.1 percent and worse than expected. Jason: [17:14] Yeah so that was. Scot: [17:15] How do I reconcile that with 28%. Jason: [17:18] Yeah well so the 1% is monthly and it was that mean that was down month over month so that's June to July so, July 2 July monthly going back the retail sales were actually up by 13 percent which is much more healthy and Q2. Versus last Q2 retail sales are up what did I just say 20 that's the. Scot: [17:48] But okay but then the month-on-month is interesting because why do you you know if we're still coming out of covid you would expect it to be kind of climbing up even if we were heading into the fall or. Jason: [18:00] What you have to remember about consumer spending patterns and Retail is there it's all heavily driven by these purchased occasions and there's a bunch of purchase occasions that are tied to date and so the spending patterns you'd expect to see in July are different than the spending patterns you'd expect to see in June so there's there's more people spending on summer activities in June than July and there's more people starting to spend on back to school in July then in June and so there are all these factors that make it really hard to. Compare month-over-month in West you you do some like heavy seasonal adjustment gymnastics and even that tends to not work because, some of these these purchase occasion shift from month to month from year to year so sorry it's complicated. Scot: [18:51] Got it dads and grads will scrap it up two dads and grads being in June. Jason: [18:57] Yeah but so I mean my biggest takeaway is like as a retail I guarantee you every retail team I work with care a lot more about there. Their sales bases from last year than they do their sales bases from last month. Now the Miss versus analysts expectations that's a separate story and some you know obviously is you know like investors tend to get squeamish when, when the recharge missed the analyst expectations but it's super hard to predict analyst it's a tough job for the analyst right now given all the uncertainty around health and covid and we simultaneously have states where they're throwing parades because covid over and people are opening up and then we have states where their reinstituting Mass mandates so it's. It's like high degree of uncertainty at the. [19:51] Um so in that climate some poor companies had to report their earnings and face investors and so this was to me a fun week for earnings calls, Walmart reported their their Q2 earnings Target reported their Q2 earnings Lowe's and Home Depot reported their Q2 earnings and then TJ Maxx reported their cue turning so it's a pretty fun week in retail earnings um and. Again I tend to focus more on the operational metrics and less on the investor metrics so you know there were some beets and some misses in there that impacted stock performance and I don't pay that much attention to those. [20:33] As a reminder because Amazon reported a couple months ago and we did a whole show a couple weeks ago we did a whole show about it, Amazon is predominantly e-commerce and Amazon's Q2 was up 22 percent from Q2 of last year so so, put that data point in your head and then you go okay home Walmart and Target how did you guys do Target was up eight point nine percent. Which was a beet and Walmart was up 5.2% which I want to say was a meat if I'm if I'm remembering right so so both those retailers did pretty well they sold a ton of stuff last year during covid and they sold significantly more this year. Um with less of a covid impact and less of an economic stimulus impact and so that that. Was pretty encouraging both retailers throughout cautions about. Their performance the rest of this year and so both retailers I think had some negative movement in their stock based on there, um on there like forward-looking expectations but not based on their performance so so again. [21:53] Amazon twenty two percent Target at eight nine percent will call it and Walmart at 5%. Um that's their total sales e-commerce was a much more interesting story targets e-commerce grew ten percent. [22:09] And Walmart's e-commerce grew three percent and those numbers are tiny by historical standards right so Amazon is all e-commerce so their 20% growth means their e-commerce grew 22% so the so Amazon's e-commerce grew more than twice as fast as Target and more than four times as fast or about four times as fast as Walmart so that that makes Amazon's performance look even more impressive if you think about Target like last year. [22:41] They grew a hundred and ninety-five percent so, so again like really sucky to comp against that that huge huge Peak and last year Walmart grew a hundred percent so they're comping against a huge Peak so the, the story of Q 2 for all these retailers is going to be, you know how do they hold on in their total retail sales can they kind of beat the industry average and then. You know where do they fall on e-commerce and candidly like. Target Walmart and Amazon kind of don't surprise me what surprised me was Lowe's and Home Depot so remember I told you earlier that, the do-it-yourself category is crony US Department of Commerce is performing reasonably well it's like up like eighteen percent so. Home Depot with retail sales for the quarter were only up 3.4 percent and lows sales were down 2.2%. [23:52] So Kind of hard to reconcile that in my head like there are many other do-it-yourself retailers besides Lowe's and Home Depot. I almost think this is like highlighting a problem in the US Department of Commerce categorization because it just, I can't put together a model where Home Depot only grew by 3 / 3.4% where lows went backwards 2.2% and yet the whole do-it-yourself category went forward, yeah but that being said Home Depot's e-commerce and super cheesy how they report this like they Home Depot totally tried to bury this but Home Depot's e-commerce growth was flat, they did not grow from last quarter from this quarter last year again off a big basis they grew a hundred percent last year and then was grew seven percent. Which you know again that that's actually better growth than Walmart and Lowe's also had a big basis they had a hundred and thirty five percent so on an e-commerce standpoint you'd say like glows actually kind of out performed in e-commerce but then the bad news for Lowe's is they way underperformed and in terms of a brick-and-mortar thing which is of course much more meaningful to them. [25:11] Um so those were kind of the monthly earnings so. That I you know I think that is a trend the other thing that came out in these earnings calls is both Walmart and Target talked about how last year retail traffic was way down but ticket size was way up people came to the store to last and they bought more in each, trip almost all the retail growth we saw this quarter was from increased trip frequency, so it was almost all tied to more people walking into Targets in Walmart like there's probably pent-up demand go shopping from people that were we're doing more of their spending online so this is kind of, all of these data points are converging to say that people are are had kind of online fatigue and we're happy to go back to stores and we're seeing that in the industry data we're seeing that in the earnings data and you know it's going to be really interesting to look at Q 3 because. It's not clear that that trend is going to continue based on some of the the health news and. State restrictions that are getting imposed and certainly based on some of the international news. Scot: [26:22] Yet it was this time last year when we kind of coined the ship again, I wonder if we're teeing up for you even kind of a tougher holiday this this may be kind of teased out of the date a little bit like maybe maybe Lowe's was down because of supply chain issues of you know they just couldn't stop the stores I don't know that that's one way to explain kind of why one retailer would be doing bad but the category did it better, and yeah so you know the supply chains are all jammed up there's just all the way from Manufacturing to hear stories of you can't get room on boats and certainly planes and then when it gets here you can't get it off the dock because there's not enough trucks and then you know I'm living the nightmare scenario where you can't buy vehicles and I have a business built on being buying Vehicles so you know there's you know. The whole system's and need to add capacity for delivering more and there's literally no vehicles to be had due to this tube shortage so it's gonna be really interesting next four months to see how this plays out. Jason: [27:35] Yeah no a hundred percent agree I'm super concerned about holiday the inventory levels like wouldn't really show up in the, the kind of reported earnings like where it would come up in is the transcript of the investor calls and I'll confess I didn't listen live to I did listen to Walmart and Target I didn't listen live to Home Depot or Lowe's I kind of skimmed the transcript so I can't I don't I did not see, then calling out supply chain as a reason for this quarter's performance it definitely was called out as a risk factor for there. Their future performance and what was a little interesting is Walmart and Target vote both went to Great Lengths to express that they felt like they were going to be in a good inventory position for holiday and I say that because none of us are expecting them to be in a great inventory position for holiday so they're they're trying to. Push back that narrative and it like obviously those are two of the biggest retailers that have a lot of Leverage over the supply chain so it's like, you know if anyone can buy inventory it's going to be them and they're saying they've invested early and they think they've got the inventory they need for Holiday locked up. Your points are all, super valid like every step in the supply chain is more expensive and more fragile right now and the one that you didn't mention is. [29:05] It's also just harder globally to get stuff made and you know if you look at the global, like flow of covid there's really only one economy economy that completely recovered and got a hundred percent of their retail foot traffic back for example and that was China and guess what China is, like in the throes of a Delta pandemic and foot traffic to retail as way down like they've had a back slide and that has impacted factory production and productivity and you know you mentioned one tangible, way that's playing out as these chip shortages but like there's a bunch of them and then we also have this Global labor shortage, and a place where it's been particularly hard to hire people is in warehouses and factories and so I here in the United States we've got like a bunch of Labor shortages we've got a bunch of labor dispute so I want to say Mondelez has like three big factories under strike so Santa may not be able to get Oreos this Christmas like there's a lot of those things playing out right now so I would say, that Walmart and Target may have locked up enough inventory but there's. [30:21] Severe uncertainty about the holiday and I think everything we talked about for ship again in last year's going to be worse this year. FedEx and UPS have both announced their surcharges for holiday and they've already informed most of their customers of what there, how they quotas will be so that's going to for sure come into play the US Post Office which historically has not had surcharges is adding surcharges this year so lots of stuff going down and again, I'll be shocked of Amazon has as much capacity as they want but you know Amazon unique amongst all these retailers owns a lot of their own capacity and in fact. They're huge Amazon air Hub in Cincinnati just went online so. Yeah yeah and even when you can get stuff it's just more expensive like I want to say that like average price of a container with six thousand dollars last year and it's 22 thousand dollars right now so. Scot: [31:19] Effort Amazon Seller say 40,000 I don't know. Jason: [31:23] I think yeah it depends on what you know but yeah and so I again I've seen like. Retailers by part of a porch in Canada I want to say, um Canadian Tire like literally bought a shipping Port you know we've seen lots of retailers including Home Depot by their own container Freighters like, we're seeing all kinds of crazy reaches up into the supply chain to try to protect capacity so it's it's definitely going to be interesting. Scot: [31:54] We will keep listeners posted well this is the place to go to where we're called it last year early and we're going to keep tracking it and calling it early this year. Yeah and then since we're doing a news episode it wouldn't be a Jason and Scot show without a little. Jason: [32:15] News new your margin is there opportunity. Scot: [32:23] That's right Amazon news Jason I saw this one got your dander up a little bit on on the the Twitter there was a New York Times article where they talked about how Amazon is now officially a hundred percent without any argument bigger than Walmart and an article what they do is they use a third-party source for GM v data which I actually appreciate this because for a very long time I was trying to help educate people that that you can't just look at Amazon Revenue numbers that their impact is bigger because there's this kind of Iceberg neath the surface of gmv that matters because if someone buys something from a 3rd party seller for $100 other retailers lost $100 they didn't lose the around $10 commission that Amazon shows us Revenue so I thought this was pretty interesting and when you you gross up now the number they used was pretty aggressive I don't know who this this Source was I don't have a subscription but it seemed a little aggressive and the lines are definitely going to cross I thought maybe they had pulled it into your to what we're I know this kind of got you a little agitated what what do you think about this. Jason: [33:39] Yeah yeah so it's super interesting it's a great article it's it prompted a lot of conversation I am mildly annoyed so first of all the I have seen as a result of this this article got written in the New York Times and it's a very accurate article. But it then got echoed by hundreds of other Publications and it got. Progressively worse so a I thought that would warm your heart is a ton of these articles go to Great Lengths to explain why revenue is in a valid way to compare these retailers and what gmv is and it's like. They all have discovered this year what you've been been teaching all of us for four. Probably 10 years now at this point we're old but so that was kind of fun so the New York Times article the headline first of all was people now spend more at Amazon than at. [34:33] And then the subtitle is the biggest e-commerce company outside of China has unseated the biggest brick-and-mortar seller. And so what this article is saying is, they're using a gmv estimate from a data company that sells data to investors and so it's a Wall Street analyst firm called factset and facts that said, Walmart's trailing 12-month gmv, was 500 Global GMB was five hundred sixty six billion dollars and Amazons 12-month gmv was six hundred and ten billion dollars so for the first time Amazon's Global gmv is higher than Walmart's and so Amazon has finally passed. Past Walmart and you know we've hit this big milestone that everyone should be talking about right like so that was their article and nothing in its wrong I would argue that the fact that data tends to be on the aggressive side but, maybe aggressive for both and, facts that is not estimating gmv for Walmart just you know like they're using revenue for Walmart and they're using GM V for Amazon and as you know, Walmart now has a meaningful Marketplace why got you know I don't think they've disclosed what the. [35:59] The ratio of 1 Peter 3 p is but Walmart has said they're going to sell 75 billion dollars online this year so. That you know their gmv is likely significantly larger than their revenue but the biggest reason this isn't an apples-to-apples comparison is these two companies don't sell in the same countries right so Amazon's and many more countries than Walmart so you know their incontinence that that Walmart isn't in and, the there India is a quite large Market both of these companies are significant players in India, the Amazon includes India sales in their gym in the fact that Jim V there are the facts that GMB includes am India for Amazon Walmart revenue does not include any India sales because Walmart owns a minority majority interest in Flipkart. [36:53] Um but that's that's really the way Amazon does business in India as well like if you're doing Apples to Apples I would argue that it's probably true that Walmart is still slightly bigger than Amazon of you if you put India back into these numbers and and do a gmv estimate for Walmart instead but I don't, even really care about that what's annoying is everyone that read the New York Times article then wrote a new article saying Amazon's the biggest retailer in the world and that's, wildly untrue because. Ali Baba's gmv is bigger is like 1.3 trillion right so its bigger than Walmart plus Amazon's estimate in these articles and that's why the New York Times had to write the most awkward headline ever that's like, outside of China even and you go well why are they saying outside of China when both Walmart and Amazon are competing in China well it's because they don't want to talk about the fact that they're both way smaller than Ali Baba. [37:51] And so so again like I just I kind of don't think this is a very big milestone I think Amazon spins more time and effort trying to sell more stuff in the US than anywhere else and Walmart spends more time and effort trying to sell in the US than anywhere else it's the whole market for both countries for companies it's highly likely that Amazon is going to pass Walmart for sales in the US in the near future I don't think they have yet and when they do that will be a big milestone that will be like when Walmart passed Sears Versailles in like 1990 but to me that's the big milestone that this, this kind of facts that data thing that New York Times is trying to spin and then you know everyone else misreported like to me it's. Not that interesting and so I'm kind of annoyed how much Buzz it's gotten but I just blew it and gave it a bunch more buzz on the podcast. Scot: [38:44] Okay another one Amazon this was kind of the big big topic today there was a leak or someone figured out that Amazon is going to open a department store. How do you feel about Amazon departments course I feel like they're going to have put Target out of business in six months. Jason: [39:09] I just sold all my Target stock it so it's over. I'm kidding yeah so I mean this is interesting news the. I would say it's very vague news at this point like I don't think it surprises anyone that Amazon is interested in and is probably moving forward with trying a bunch of different retail floor mats I do think Amazon realizes that. That brick-and-mortar is important I don't think they think of themselves as purely an online, retail and they've been investing a bunch of brick and mortar and a category they want to do better and is a parallel and they have been making a lot of progress in a parallel so it's not shocking that they would be trying to experiment with some apparel formats so so this news is kind of exciting I'd be eager to see what they what stores they do open and I'm aisle you know quickly go visit them when they do to see what see what they're trying but. From this article it's hard to know exactly what they're talking about so the the leases that the. The reporter found in this is an exclusive article from Wall Street Journal. The wheezes they found were for thirty thousand-square-foot stores so the first thing is again everyone saying like Amazon's getting into the department store business. There are almost no 30,000 square foot department stores most department stores are much bigger than 30,000 square feet. [40:33] Whatever it's worth the the article says that apparel is one of the categories that's likely in this new store from Anonymous sources that talk to them. So does that mean it's primarily an apparel store so that would make it like a Kohl's or T.J.Maxx eyes store and that could be interesting and meaningful or does it mean it's a general merchandise store that has some apparel and also has a full grocery store because there's a lot of 20,000 25,000 square foot grocery stores so 30,000 square feet. Isn't that much different than the the bigger store formats we've already seen Amazon starting to experiment with so I guess I'm just saying. Any brick-and-mortar news from Amazon is interesting I'll be super eager to follow it but there was nothing, to me and this announcement that goes man my mind's blown this is a major Game Changer or some some new industry that wasn't worried about Amazon last week should be super worried about them this week like I think all those Industries should have already been worried. Scot: [41:35] Yeah and a lot of people I saw coming and we're saying they're abandoning the bookstore this means the 4-star store doesn't work they're getting rid of just je wat technology the Amazon goes towards and I think people just kind of, Amazon. At the heart of their DNA is to experiment with stuff doesn't just because they're experimenting with something doesn't mean the other things failed they can run they have the resources to run 300 experiments retail store experiment simultaneously if they want to and that you can't really read that kind of stuff into them I think that's really jumping the gun. Jason: [42:12] No I would a hundred percent agree with that and again it's built right into their leadership principles like small autonomous teams right so it's not like it's one big entity and they can only do one thing at a time. They've got you know a ton of entities that are doing a ton of things at a time so I I certainly. Scot: [42:28] Purposely don't talk to each other because it was a slow not yeah. Jason: [42:31] Yeah absolutely. So excited to see them doing new things I do think when they open new store formats they tend to be more Innovative than than traditional retailers that are opening new format so I hope they open them and I will be there when they do. Scot: [42:48] And then while we were on the podcast Tesla announced they have a new robot swiped will have to you have to order one of those and then give us a gadget unboxing kind of walkthrough of how that goes. Jason: [43:02] I feel like you are higher on the Tesla waiting list than I am so we may have to leverage your status but I'm all for doing a robot Deep dive at our earliest convenience. Scot: [43:12] Yeah humanoid robots kind of freaked me out so I think I'll lose my status to send it to your hostel we'll see if it a skynet's you or not. Jason: [43:20] Yeah isn't is there another Terminator movie coming out I think there is. Scot: [43:23] There's always another Terminator movie coming out sometime. Jason: [43:26] Fair enough awesome we'll listen we set a goal for ourselves to do a shorter concise show and I said I think we can knock this out in 30 minutes so I totally blew that this feels like about 45 minutes but hopefully it was valuable to listeners if it was we sure would appreciate, five star review on iTunes if you have any questions or we got anything wrong in the show you want to talk about we would encourage you to hit us up on Twitter or Facebook. Scot: [43:57] Yeah I like to think we gave everyone 50% more for their money today so you're welcome. Jason: [44:03] Yeah and you and I earned fifty percent less what's 50% of zero awesome well until next time happy commercing!
We were a little all over the place this week folks. The boys are feeling good after the Black and Gold's first preseason game. We tried to talk about some other stuff. We were not prepared. It was fun though. Scot and Mike give their schedule predictions for LSU. We had a good time until a small social media emergency brought the show to an end.
Dr. Scot Gray is a serial entrepreneur who has built and sold multiple successful chiropractic and decompression practices. Currently, he is the CEO of Ohio Integrated Pain & Wellness Centers as well as Gray Marketing Enterprises, a digital marketing agency for small businesses. He has helped start stem cell clinics in multiple states and is also a Partner at Regenerative Health Centers of Florida. Dr. Gray is the host of the Top Minds Podcast and the author of the book Good Back, Bad Back. He has been featured on NBC, ABC, and more to share his knowledge of eliminating back pain, neck pain, and headaches. In this episode… Are you looking for a way to close more sales and grow your customer base? For many leading businesses — such as OxiClean and George Foreman Cooking — the key to success is mastering the perfect presentation. So, what is the secret to delivering more effective sales presentations today? According to Dr. Scot Gray, there are several essential components that make up the perfect sales presentation. From controlling your “radio voice” to crafting an effective story, these key elements can be the difference between building a good business and creating a wildly successful enterprise. For Dr. Gray, perfecting his sales presentation helped him make a greater impact with his practices and achieve more freedom in his career. Dr. Scot Gray, a serial entrepreneur and digital marketing expert, joins Dan Kuschell on this episode of Growth to Freedom to discuss the eight key components of a successful sales presentation. Dr. Gray explains how to boost your credibility, master the mindset for success, and leverage humor to tell your story. Tune in to discover how you can close more sales and achieve professional freedom today!
Dan, Rob, and Cooper talk about the complicated Scot who is often regarded as the father of the US Navy -- John Paul Jones. From helping the U.S. win independence to fighting Turks in the Black Sea on behalf of Catherine the Great, JPJ lived an action-packed 45 years mostly on water or inside the warm embrace of a European woman.