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Remarkable Retail
BONUS EPISODE: NRF "Big Show" Recap

Remarkable Retail

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 27, 2023 20:54


We're just back from New York and the 2023 edition of the National Retail Federation's Big Show. As we rest our weary legs, we hop back on the mic to share some of our key takeaways gleaned from the Expo floor, the conference stages, conversations in the halls, and at various events we attended. We also recorded several new podcast episodes while we were there. Stay tuned as we release them over the coming weeks. And for a quick overview of the session we did on the Big Ideas stage with the Container Store's EVP of Strategy & Analytics Gretchen Ganc go here.    We'll also be releasing our interview live on the stage with Gretchen as an upcoming episode of the podcast. About UsSteve Dennis is an advisor, keynote speaker and author on strategic growth and business innovation. You can learn more about Steve on his       website.    The expanded and revised edition of his bestselling book  Remarkable Retail: How To Win & Keep Customers in the Age of Disruption is now available at  Amazon or just about anywhere else books are sold. Steve regularly shares his insights in his role as a      Forbes senior contributor and on       Twitter and       LinkedIn. You can also check out his speaker "sizzle" reel      here.Michael LeBlanc  is the Founder & President of M.E. LeBlanc & Company Inc and a Senior Advisor to Retail Council of Canada as part of his advisory and consulting practice.   He brings 25+ years of brand/retail/marketing & eCommerce leadership experience, and has been on the front lines of retail industry change for his entire career.  Michael is the producer and host of a network of leading podcasts including Canada's top retail industry podcast,       The Voice of Retail, plus  Global E-Commerce Tech Talks  ,      The Food Professor  with Dr. Sylvain Charlebois and now in its second season, Conversations with CommerceNext!  You can learn more about Michael   here  or on     LinkedIn. Be sure and check out Michael's latest venture for fun and influencer riches - Last Request Barbecue,  his YouTube BBQ cooking channel!

Retail Gets Real
295. Future-proofing retail with trend forecaster Andrea Bell

Retail Gets Real

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 24, 2023 15:26


Recorded from NRF 2023: Retail's Big Show in New York City: Andrea Bell, vice president of Consumer Insights at WGSN, dives into the latest consumer research on what the future of retail looks like, trends that retailers need to be aware of and how to plan for the unknown. From the rise of the “polycrisis” era to synthetic creativity, retailers are looking for ways to future-proof their businesses and navigate global risks.  Learn more at retailgetsreal.com.

MorseCast
NRF 2023 - O maior evento global do varejo

MorseCast

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 21, 2023 56:57


Na semana do dia 16/01/2023 aconteceu em New York a NRF Retail's Big Show, o maior evento do varejo Global que reuniu cerca de 40 mil pessoas, 1.000 expositores e 350 palestrantes para debater os acontecimentos, desafios, oportunidades e tendências do varejo mundial.O Fernando Moulin, sócio da SponsorB, esteve em uma comitiva no evento e neste bate-papo apresenta as suas percepções sobre a NRF e as tendências do varejo global.

The Jason & Scot Show - E-Commerce And Retail News
EP301 - Annual Predictions, NRF Big Show, Year End Recap

The Jason & Scot Show - E-Commerce And Retail News

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 20, 2023 75:35


EP301 - Annual Predictions, NRF Big Show, Year End Recap This ended up being a slightly longer than usual episode, sorry! If we had more time, we'd make a shorter podcast (to paraphrase Mark Twain). So here are some timecodes if you want to jump ahead: Recap of the NRF Big Show 1:27 Recap of 2022 Holiday and Full Year Results 22:43 2022 Predictions Scoring 30:34 2023 Predictions 54:51 2022 Predictions Recap Jason: NFTs, Web 3, Metaverse, and Ultrafast delivery services are all overhyped and don't deliver meaningful commerce revenue in 2022. Yes Shein exceeds $30B in annual sales, disrupting apparel industry Yes Adoption of BNPL services slows down to less than 15% CAGR in 2022. Yes Amazon opens more than 100 Amazon Fresh grocery stores No Last Mile evolves Veho, X-Delivery, shipium, or Instacart gets aquired No Jason Total Score: 3 of 5 Scot: Amazon launches a competitor to Shopify webstore, possibly via a headless solution on AWS No Amazon wins ultra-fast delivery. Gopuff, Gorilla, or  Jokr goes out of business in 2022 Yes Metaverse gets lots of buzz but no revenue Yes Livestream commerce goes mainstream in the US No Fabric gets acquired No Scot Total Score: 2 of 5 Jason pulls out the rare win! 2023 Predictions Jason: At least 2 retail bankruptcies (besides Party City) BNPL Consolidation (Klarna, Affirm, Afterpay. Sezzle) – at least one merges/exits US or BNPL. Shopify launches an ad product such as a retail media network Meta/Google/TikTok lose ad share to new social media platforms and retail media networks. Live Streaming Commerce Still not meaningful in US in 2023 (less than 5% of social commerce in US) Scot: Amazon uses this 2022 setback/slowdown/reversion to the mean for a public resetting of expectations, but behind the scenes they take share and raise the bar on shipping Shopify is acquired An innovation in e-commerce powered by ai (gpt4) surprises us by how fast it's adopted and how cool it is E-commerce accelerates back to the mean in 2H after a mean regression in 1H. E-com returns 10-15% growth rates. Sephora and/or Ulta move to a subscription model for new product discovery ChatGPT “based on trends and current developments in e-commerce, it is likely that we will see continued growth and expansion in the industry, with an emphasis on mobile commerce, personalize shopping experiences, and increased use of technologies such as artificial intelligence and virtual reality. Additionally, there may be an increased focus on issues such as sustainability and social responsibility in e-commerce” Don't forget to like our facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes. Episode 301 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday, January 19th, 2023. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 301 being recorded on Thursday January 19th I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scott Wingo. Scot: [0:38] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason and Scott showed listeners Jason I was looking in our in my podcast app I'm an iPhone user says looking in the Apple podcast app, we had a review in six months so I thought of the top of the show here we would ask folks if you enjoy the show we sure would appreciate a review if you are in that player you go into the app you find our podcast scroll down a fair amount because we have so many episodes about four Scrolls I would estimate and then right there you'll see the Low Five Stars we would love a five star review or any review that you'd like to leave that would be most appreciated, we do this for the reviews so we appreciate it. Jason: [1:21] Yeah I would just add that makes a great New Year's resolution because you can literally accomplish it 5 minutes after you met. Scot: [1:27] Yeah and you get a dopamine hit and feel feel better about yourself sand Jason and I will be very happy, Jason today we are going to talk about two of my favorite topics so number one you just got back from the NRF Big Show and then we are belated with our predictions and recap for last year's predictions so we're going to sneak that in here we're still in January so I still think we're kind of in the new year a little little close here recording on the 19th but I think we're still in that window, so how I was not able to make it at in our F this year but you did and I look forward to hearing what you saw there. Jason: [2:07] Yeah yeah it was a good time obviously the biggest efficiency was your absence. But for any newer listeners that haven't been there before National Retail federation's in Trade Organization represents the retail industry and and this is their big event every year this is a hundred year old show, that is always at the Jacobs Javits Center in Manhattan in mid-January usually in the middle of a blizzard. Um so so a bunch of things worked in our favor this year during the last couple covid years the Javits Center got remodeled and so. The main areas where they do Keynotes and a lot of the big presentations and content are now like a new very nice facility that's very comfortable. And it was unseasonable e nice weather so it was kind of like 30s and 40s and clear no no snow no no blizzard to have to fly home in. Scot: [3:05] That's good. Jason: [3:07] So that got things kicked off on the right foot and then to me the most exciting thing was just the vibrancy, I don't think they've published the final attendance number but I'm pretty confident it's going to be just a smidge north of their 2020 attendance so, that you know given all the things that went on in the last couple of years being positive against your last pre coded year seems pretty good definitely felt like there was a lot of energy people were really happy to be there, and I was particularly pleased because. Last year was not a great year they tried to have the show last year there was just a big pain demick spike in New York right before the show so a lot of exhibitors. Publicly pulled out other exhibitors quietly pulled out and just didn't show and so you know it was kind of this weird thing where they had. Um you know a somewhat empty Spartan giant trade Joe for where they you know they frankly made a bunch of exhibitors still come in spite of the fact that there weren't very many, attendees for them to talk to, several of the Keynotes didn't show up and came via Zoom so it was it was not a good event last year and I was a little worried that that you know people that were forced to participate last year would be resentful and less interested in coming back. But it appears like we're back to normal. Scot: [4:33] This retail thing is catching on. Jason: [4:35] Yeah yeah it's not going away. So a couple of the big trends and we won't go into depth in any of these but you know maybe some of these will come up as topics in subsequent podcast. [4:49] They're the last couple shows there's there there have always been what I'll call digital shelves like electronic fact tags everybody knows I always like to talk about video displays on shelf Edge smart shelf so that know, um what inventory they have on them and. They get incrementally better every year so there were a lot more of them this year they were all better and cheaper. For a variety of reasons I still don't think 20:23 is going to be the year that they become. Super common in the wild but the tech is getting better a related Tech that seems like it has a lot of new vendors in this space is what I call in-store analytics so that's using cameras and computer vision too, measure Shoppers in the store and kind of like Google analytics for your your store again I'm not expecting huge deployments this year but it's, the computer vision technology is just getting more and more amazing and so that the insights that these things can get from relatively few cheap cameras keeps getting better. Um there's a lot of automation at this show so you know there's the usual. Auto store and perfect pick which are two of the big automated Warehouse Systems but there are a lot of other. [6:08] Startup automation things that could bring automated picking to store fulfillment or small fulfillment centers or. Pick to light systems and gloves like a lot of. Get more efficient about fulfilling omni-channel order stuff so automation was a big theme. Another thing that got a lot of space and signage at the show was what all broadly call headless Commerce, so Shopify made a big announcement right before the show that they were releasing a new offering called Shopify Commerce components and so this is kind of a. Upmarket headless version of Shopify Shopify has always been kind of a monolithic web app that you know was a super good fit for very small start-up companies, um and you know some of which have grown to be quite large on the platform, and they've always had a second offering called Shopify plus which was. Intended to be more Enterprise features but the plus mostly meant more Enterprise sales features not necessarily a lot more Enterprise, features in the in the platform and so this new offering seems like. [7:27] You know a pretty evolved set of apis and as a we've talked about in a previous episode of this show, fine but they sometimes called the mock principles, so they had a big booth that was mostly focused on this Shopify Commerce components, Salesforce has a very similar offering they already are kind of more enterprise-e and so they were there and then there's a, I want to call my startup they've been around for a while now so I'm not sure it's fair to call it a start-up but newer more modern Commerce platform. It's called Commerce tools in the chief strategy officer, from from from Commerce tools Kelly has been on our show before they had a huge presence a big booth and sponsored a bunch of stuff so there were between Shopify Salesforce and commerce tools, you definitely got a strong headless vibe in the show and then for old timers, the trade show floor is divided into three sections there's an innovation Center which is all new startups there we had a great Innovation Center this year was mostly International companies so I companies from Israel companies from France, there were very small startup showing some pretty cool Tech there's the upstairs trade show for which is all the. [8:56] Kind of incumbent Legacy vendors the Microsoft's the oracles the ncr's, all the big players with a really big boost and then the more digital players that you know they might exhibit it shop talk or would have exhibited it at shop dot org in the past, they're in the downstairs exhibit hall and it all this is not true but it felt like this year one of the rules that was in place to exhibit at the downstairs exhibit hall is you had to rename your url to end in dot AI. [9:30] Every every single vendor downstairs. Was you know some some execution of AI and some of them were super interesting and, I think we'll talk about this later but I'm very optimistic will be a big part of the Commerce ecosystem this year and some of them are, you know pretty speculative and far-fetched so so you know a good breath of everything and then I'll sum all that up that's what the floor look like the content you know is mostly, some some decent key notes from from Big retailers and the problem with key notes from the CEOs of big retards is they're not necessarily going to share anything. [10:14] Proprietary or new insightful like it's kind of interesting to hear their their philosophies but like I don't tend to learn a lot that I'm going to use, um in my day-to-day gig from the content sessions and in our f, um but what I do love is talking to all the people in the halls and aisles and by far you know kind of trying to take everyone's temperature that I could I could get time with the overwhelming consensus was, this is 2023 is going to be a really uncertain year for retail that there's a lot of, economic challenges that people are going to be really focused on profitability and a lot of the Retailer's talked about how, um their budgets are getting reduced significantly that the focus is really going to be deploying that Capital against things that can have a short term. Benefit to their cost structure and help them get their profitability up and so I kind of interpret that as. We're going to see a lot more a lot fewer investments in customer acquisition and front end systems and a lot more investment in back-end systems and optimizations. Scot: [11:23] Pickle I got a million questions on Automation in you know kind of the state of Art and my mind is still the key the system is there something out there you think at least on the you kind of mentioned in store but I'm thinking more Warehouse side anything there that's kind of. Jason: [11:41] Yeah so there's two big vendor like so Kiva is Amazon's proprietary system and to my knowledge they don't sell it to others yet do they. Scot: [11:49] No but it's still kind of the state of Missouri. Jason: [11:52] Yeah yeah they certainly could have some point so so you know there's kind of two philosophies of these like big fulfillment center automation. [12:02] Go go get bring the goods to a picker or you know you know so you actually move Isles which is what the key this system does it moves bins, um to a human picker that then pulls them out so the picture gets to stand still or these fully automated systems that like you don't bring things in on conveyor belts and so there's two big vendors, um there's a store a vendor called Auto store which is like a, very dense set of bins that are stacked quite high and they're shuttled around on conveyor belts so it's a 3D delivery system of these these bins, and there's a bunch of big retailers if you've highly automated your your fulfillment center in the u.s. like you're probably using Auto store or their competitor perfect, and so both of those had full live demos at the show that where you know are super mesmerizing to watch because they have all these. [13:01] These bins flying around but then went there were was a lot of startups that were more Kevo like, so instead of like a conveyor belt that ends with your exact products you know in a bin ready to package, um these are things that are like lifting shelves and moving the Shelf to a to a picker so even in that Innovation Center there were several Israeli companies that you know we're in a tiny little 10 by 10 booth, with the little robot that could you know lift up a gondola full of products and bring and move it around a warehouse. Scot: [13:34] Merkel and then from afar I saw Shopify really hitting the we're headless to kind of train which I thought was interesting because they kind of have, you just kind of dip their toe in that water I read it as they must be hitting some headwinds maybe at Shopify plus maybe some churn and realize they had to go into that market pretty hard so I wonder if our friends at Fabric and some of these other places were starting to take some share from. Jason: [14:02] Yeah so I don't know if it's as explicit as taking share I think there's this notion new companies are highly likely to start life on Shopify and it's a. If a family member calls me and says I want to start a business and sell something online I'm sending him to Shopify it's the easiest safest best best way to do it, so there's a notion that those companies ought to grow up and you know either by something else or spend a lot more money with Shopify, and so I think a lot of people looked at Shopify plus and they said oh yeah that's that's for the startup companies to evolve into, and then I think a lot of people are looking at the these Shopify Commerce components in that same way I actually suspect that's not the case, the overwhelming majority of startups that start on Shopify are are going to go out of business, right I just the attrition rate is super high and so most companies aren't getting bigger and need a bigger platform, um the I think what they're trying to do by having a mid-tier kind of mid-market offering is not so much help their existing customer base to grow its to acquire, um a new customer base that you know frankly has a little more proven business model and a little more stability to kind of help them with their Journey a little bit right and so, um I think that was the intent but far behind Shopify Plus. [15:23] Shopify plus never got a ton of traction and they actually had a pretty big staff reduction in Shopify plus earlier last year so. E-commerce components does feel like a restart like they're tackling I think the right problem this time like before they were tackling, the Professional Services that they thought you know an Enterprise client would want in order to use Shopify this time they're there they're tackling the. The functionality and the flexibility that a mid-market or Enterprise client might want so I think this is going to be, an interesting play but I don't think it's so much that Bigcommerce or Fabric or Commerce tools, um stoled customers from Shopify I think it's more Shopify want some of those customers in its ecosystem as well and obviously they have a lot of resources to go after them so that's kind of how. How I interpreted it. Scot: [16:20] We will agree to disagree on the a. Jason: [16:26] As we're about to find out from the predictions I am occasionally wrong. Scot: [16:29] Yeah we all are this is the The Humbling part of this program is trying to make predictions and this current world we live in AI everything was one of the things you have to have a DOT AI anything that blew your mind, you and I had chatted about you know we're starting to see a eyes for example that'll create product detail Pages where you anything getting some traction or is it all just. Jason: [16:54] Yeah so so I so a I think there's a trend that's super annoying to me I'm old and curmudgeonly is everyone knows but like, there are a bunch of companies that are decided to AI is cool and then they're just desperately looking for a problem to solve with AI and so and sometimes they don't understand the space very well or the problems or the economics of the problem very well and so there are a bunch of, AI companies, the I don't find particularly interesting right like there's probably 30 AI companies that are like we're personalization engine to do better product recommendations with a i. [17:29] And personalized product recommendations is super important there are, 15 Enterprise products that have been using AI for 15 years and are the is the AI getting much better. [17:43] Yes but. Like the you're not necessarily like bringing anything new to the party when you're you know a small start-up in that space, um so there are you know some things I don't get super excited about. The AI for inventory management is super interesting like these models that are doing demand forecasting that are doing kind of. You know most retailers kind of have a pretty simplistic model for for inventory balancing like you know what what inventory do I put in what fulfillment center how much extra inventory do put in a store for store fulfillment, things like that and now they're using AI to make that much more robust, um AI promotion engines so you know instead of kind of a one-size-fits-all promotion where hey we're going to do 30% off this product across the whole country, um we're going to you know throw some business rules to an AI engine that's going to decide like when and where to offer a promotion and it's going to, factor in a lot more localized factors and personalization factors and so you know there might be deeper discounts and, in some stores and other some circumstances and others are even in someday Parts than others so so I think all of. AI to improve these existing business processes is super interesting and then the the new use cases. [19:12] I'm very convinced that the majority of e-commerce content the majority of product descriptions we read attributes we read are going to be written by AI in the future like it's gotten really good there's a bunch of benefits to having it read it. I'm about in the old days Channel advisor at a bunch of clients they created product content for and then they syndicated that content to a bunch of different retailers and one problem was that content was the same at all those retailers so from an SEO standpoint it didn't look very unique, and one of the things that a I can do trivially is take your master product content and make 10 variants that are. [19:48] Equally human readable but are unique so that you could Syndicate different content to eBay Amazon and Walmart for example which is. Pretty cool and as we talked with mad about last week, you know Goodwill finds is using AI to onboard all their new skews pretty efficiently so I think it's really good for that and then the last thing I'll say is there's a lot of super interesting stuff around computer vision so both, pulling product attributes out of pictures, um using the security cameras in the store to to do inventory checks and to do merchandise and compliance checks and pricing checks, um and stuff like that and using that that inventory to understand customer using those security cameras to understand customer Behavior better even using computer vision to do better loss prevention which loss prevention, is a really big issue with this show and there's an explosion in organized crime this year and so that you know kind of, predicting crime events is kind of an interesting thing the days a eyes doing so like plugging a i into a camera is yielding I think a lot of pretty interesting use cases for retailgeek. Scot: [20:57] Yeah very cool did you get to see some of our favorite folks. Jason: [21:04] I did I did I saw a lot of past guests I think I made a joke on Twitter which we're going to have to do a separate show about how sad I am about everything that's happening on Twitter, but the. The most common thing that happens to me now is I have a loud obnoxious voice that everyone at this trade show can recognize yrg from this podcast and so everyone is super excited and I get tons of compliments I feel bad that you weren't there because it's kind of, it feels nice to have all these people recognized us and talk about how we're you know an important part of their, there we can help them in their job so I really appreciate that and I want to say hi to everyone I, I did cross paths with at NRF it was awesome to meet you and thanks for for stopping and saying hello but then the next word out of their mouth is where is Scott because I'm way more interested in meeting Scott than I was in meeting you. And I have to say that you're you're too much of a big deal the coming in or out. Scot: [22:04] No just I'm allergic to the cold and had a little bit of work to do on my side the auto industry's on a different cycle than the retail industry sadly. Jason: [22:15] Yeah but they are they are colliding have you like Auto Commerce is going to be a big thing. Scot: [22:19] Yes yes was almost all Automotive companies which is kind of out of never did not have that on my bingo card. Jason: [22:27] Yeah they're going to have to rename it AES or something Auto Electronics Show. [22:43] Yeah as everyone knows my pandemic hobby is trenching US Department of Commerce retail data in Tableau and kind of annoying that in our F ended on Tuesday night, so try to get up Wednesday morning and fly home but I had to wait to leave my hotel room because the 8:30 in the morning Eastern Time on Wednesday the US Department of Commerce published, their monthly retail sales data and this month is particularly exciting to me because it's the December data so that lets us do two things. Look at November and December together and kind of understand what happened in holiday and then it also obviously lets us Wicked January through December and start talking about, 20:22 as a whole year which lets me retire all my 2021 talking points so so that was exciting. Scot: [23:36] Recap of what what did we learn. Jason: [23:37] Yeah so that's about a four-hour show but I'm gonna recap the two top lines in under 30 seconds so we'll start with a holiday so if you add November and December sales which I would argue the best view of holiday is November December January, generate data is not available in a lot of people think of holidays November and December so if we just talked about November and December, and I'm going to take a narrow definition of retail for purposes of holiday I'm going to pull cars out, I'm going to pull restaurants out and I'm going to put gas stations out because it's a super volatile thing that's not very tied to Holiday behaviors so November and December sales were up, 5.2% versus last year so from 2021 which was a monster year we went up another 5.2%, now most people were disappointed when they saw that number, big for a couple reasons last year we were up 13.4 percent using the same definition of retail so. [24:38] You know a much lower rate of growth in last year and most people you know are having to comp against last year and they set their financial goals based on last year, and also in the middle of holiday like especially around Black Friday a lot of, third-party analyst publish a prediction they say we have Secret inside data we have credit card data and we think retail sales are going to be 9% or 12% or you know there were all these estimates, there were optimistic, all the digital guys came out and said digital sales are up significantly from the previous year and the inner F came out with these vague statements and said like more people are going to be shopping on Black Friday than ever before so you heard all this good news around Black Friday which made you think. [25:20] This is going to be a big holiday season and then and so you 5.2 sounds like a huge disappointment compared to some of that over exuberant, but to put that in perspective. [25:34] The historical average growth is four point four percent so 5.2% is meaningfully above the historical average, and I don't want to say I told you so but all of you that attended my webinars about holiday performance, I heard that that I was predicting in that five to five and a half percent even even back then so so there's a rare occasion of me getting it right. Here's the piece of bad news about that whole thing that 5.2% was all inflation so if if you adjust those two months for inflation we were actually down 1.8% from last, so the big takeaway from holiday is. [26:12] It was disappointing it was much more difficult to make a profit on this holiday than it has the last several Prophets, so a lot of retailers came in a holiday with pretty robust inventory levels they didn't sell through their inventory what they sold they didn't sell it particular High margins, um and so that's setting us up for a uneasy first half of 2023, retailers have too much inventory and and not enough recent profit so we're likely going to see a lot of discounting and you know more pressure on on income as they kind of work through all that in. [26:47] So that's the holiday Debbie Downer the full year is I think a better story the full year we sold seven point one trillion dollars worth of stuff which that's the first time we passed the seven trillion dollar mark, that's up 8.2 percent from last year again last year was a monster year, the best year in my my career of retail so, being up 8.2% versus that you know again is a really good story it's a bad news is you pull inflation out of that and we were basically flat we were up 0.2. Um so through that lens 2022 was not a fabulous year but the one thing I would say is, what's really interesting is where is retail compared to before the pandemic and cumulatively, retails up 31% from 2019 so so the full year of 2022 is 31 percent higher than 20, um an average year over the last 20 years in retail for a full year would be up 4.7% so. 31% is still almost twice what we would expect over a three-year kakkar so you know not a, knock it out of the park year but still you know very healthy industry on the backside of this pandemic. Scot: [28:09] So if we kind of you know there's that famous chart you hate and then we reverted to the mean does this mean we're kind of back on the meat. Jason: [28:19] Because it's wrong and I get to make fun of it. Scot: [28:21] Do you love to hate how about that are you hate to love I don't know and the so we reverted kind of back to the mean do you think that this kind of resets and we get back to that kind of traditional growth. Jason: [28:35] I still think there's some factors yet to play out so I'm not sure we're going to get completely back to normal for 2023 I think we're going to, we are still seeing some residual pandemic effects and the main residual pandemic effect we're seeing is. The spending is still skewing to experiences more than Goods so there was pent up demand for experiences, so we're you know we're we're possible we're seeing people invest more in experiences and less than Goods, but we're also starting to see a lot more economic uncertainty especially in the bottom two quartiles and so you know you're starting to see even kind of lower middle class people, change their purchase Behavior you know you're hearing in Macy's earnings that they're saying their consumers start starting to make some, you know economic trades in their purchase behaviors and so a lot of that's going to be. Kind of cooked into this 2023 so I don't think we're quite back to kind of perfectly the mean but I do think the, the ratio of store sales to e-commerce is likely to look a lot more normal this year than it has the last couple of years. Scot: [29:47] Pretty cool and this is the one that doesn't really give us e-commerce data. Jason: [29:51] Yeah there's some loose e-commerce data in there which is why I didn't quote it but next month they will publish the queue for e-commerce data so that will give us. A full year of e-commerce, you know we're starting to use these T numbers instead of B numbers in e-commerce. Scot: [30:21] Got it cool we'll have to do a big show on that one and you can just have a two hours a day spewing data. Jason: [30:28] Why I can describe my charts it's soup there's no more fascinating podcast than listening to a dude drone on about a chart. Scot: [30:34] Yeah that he can't see alright world will put a put a pin in that one and come back to it, on the all right so let's talk about predictions so I had to go back and one of our many interns research this it was back on episode 284 where we did our predictions and as is our custom we like to rate and review the prior Year's predictions and then lay down a stake for the next year so if we go I guess you'll kick it off so you'll go through my predictions and I'll say how I did and you'll kind of chimed in and then we'll flip. Jason: [31:10] Awesome and are we going to do off of yours and then all five of mine is that the easiest way to do okay. So we'll start with your first prediction Amazon is going to start getting serious about a Shopify competitor in potentially double down on headless. Scot: [31:27] Yet this was a Miss as far as I know you know what I didn't see coming was Amazon has had a bit of a rough year in and especially the back half of 22 you know they've done some layoffs they've, shuddered a lot of their physical stores they stopped their plans for big grocery expansion. I'll get that get that out on the record here early and yeah they've even started shedding warehouses so I think you know what what's happened is in this post there's been some really fascinating articles where, turns out they had this automated inventory system and its name is Scott ironically with one t and it. They trusted this thing so wholesale lie that it just went kind of Rogue and did not see the downturn you know this. Track attacking back to the mean and it kind of went Bonkers and so it's a little bit of an interesting case study of AI gone wrong and that has them having their hands very busy with their Core Business and they have not had a chance to punch Shopify in the nose and in some ways they may not have to because Shopify also had a lot of wind come out of it sales. Jason: [32:41] Yeah yeah I agree and I'm inclined to give you a note that too but if I were making an argument that you got it partially right the argument would be that they rolled out a really interesting feature called by with. And we talked about on the show we had a beta tester on the show that was super bullish on it and it's kind of a trojan horse that creates them interesting. Problems for Shopify that like frankly I'm still not sure shopify's figured out what they're going to do about but that went from a pilot program to full deployment. The week before in our F and it was a major feature of Amazon's booth and it's weird they branded the booth AWS but like. The booth was talking more about by with prime than it was a WS and and you know they're not they're not in the same divisions Within. [33:31] Um so you could argue by with prime is partly a Shopify competitor, but in the interest of me staying competitive in the predictions I'm not gonna not giving it to you and I will say, of your Amazon commentary is certainly true, but be a little careful like you know people tend to look at some of that and go oh man Amazon's really flailing like they're really feeling you know it's a huge thing for them to cut back on their fulfillment capacity and you know cancel some leases and just remember, they bought more fulfillment capacity than anyone else in the world has in a single year. The year before so it's it's not like they're getting out of retail. Scot: [34:15] You're spoiling one of my. Jason: [34:16] Find that people over over read into the you know that accurate – news but they think it's it's a more material part of Amazon's business than it is. Scot: [34:27] Yeah I integrated that into one of my future predictions. Jason: [34:31] All right so so we're going over one I like it so far I'm winning that your second prediction is Amazon puts a hurting on go puff and others go puff gorilla and Joker. Don't get out of 2022. Scot: [34:48] Yeah I'm going to score this one a win I don't I think somebody's out our business and I think go Puffs on its last legs if it's did it do a Down Round and layoffs and I don't. I certainly haven't even used it I don't know if it's I'm sure it's still around but I feel like it is on its last legs and I'm increasingly here in North Carolina like in Chicago you've had this for a while I'm increasingly getting offers that say Hey if you if you throw a little bit more in the cart you can get this thing overnight which has been kind of you know I feel like Amazon is really starting to shorten that delivery window in this post covid world. Jason: [35:26] Yeah so I'll give you a yes for that I do think a lot of the instant delivery companies like pulled out of markets or flat went out of business or left the US in 2020 so I think that's fair. I'm not sure go puff is publicly position themselves as quite as dire, as you did I could be wrong but they you know they're the biggest player left standing and and I think they have some some positive and negative indicators. The one thing I would quibble with is it's not clear to me if they are if all this instant Commerce not working is because Amazon put a hurt on them or whether, it just wasn't a good business model than enough customers were willing to pay for. Anyway right so I'm not sure if Amazon was the direct cause of all that pain or not but I do secretly think, Amazon has much better service levels than a lot of people realize you live in a wonderful place but it's. It's probably not a tier-one market for Amazon I talk to a lot of people in cities that The the vast majority of their orders are delivered same day and certainly the vast majority of stuff I ordered from Amazon, I get that order in by noon and it's it my doorstep before 10:00 that night and so that still is different than this instant delivery but. [36:49] I think Amazon's service level is darn impressive and I think you know that certainly you didn't want to be an investor in instant delivery in 2022. So I'll give you a yes. Scot: [37:01] Yes Pooh okay. Jason: [37:06] So your third one is metaverse lots of demo videos no Revenue. Scot: [37:13] Yeah think I nailed this one the Facebook has had a lot of Pi interface for spending an inordinate billions and billions of dollars on the Oculus the sales have dramatically underperformed even you know even moderate to light expectations there's no real use case that's popped out of here and then just generally and then certainly if we look at our e-commerce world there's really not much going on here so this one's been kind of a dud I'm a little bummed because I love AR and VR I just don't think we've kind of come up with the use case I think the wild card on this technology is there's increasingly detailed rumors of Apple having a device and if anyone can figure this out I think applicant but until they do, I think we're not going to see a lot of metaverse updates. Jason: [38:01] Yeah yeah I think this is a category that to me like if people are familiar with the Gartner hype cycle it fits it perfectly like. There definitely is a chance that there will be a version of The Meta verse that's very meaningful at some point but right now it's wildly overhyped. One could quibble with your in precise language like you say no revenue and of course there are some, some novel examples where there's a little bit of Revenue and the one that has meaningful revenue is for the kids is real box where you know it's. Game Revenue it gets its you know ingame credit it's not like you know people are shopping for real world of goods in the environment so there's a few things but I certainly think the spirit of your things exactly right that it's, it's wildly over-hyped and not. A financial driver in the in the near future and I would even argue nobody can even agree on a definition of what the metaverse is a it sounds singular to fight this pack that it's it's quite poor rural. You know a lot of people think the metaverse has to be on web 3 which means it's open and, Roblox is the example most people use the meta verse which is not on web three and you know a lot everybody thinks of the metaverse is VR and a lot of definitions of metaverse so Ike. Do not require VR so I don't know I'm cynical in the short term for sure so I'll give you a yes. Scot: [39:27] Okay. Jason: [39:29] For live streaming goes mainstream in 2022. Scot: [39:36] Yeah, here I was hoping to kind of weasel out with the mainstream so I will point to some successes so what not is a very collectible oriented Marketplace that is all live stream and I think they're gnd is north of a billion it may be closing in on two or three so that's pretty mainstream and then I've read probably 20 articles in the last 10 days about Tick Tock e-commerce and every time I dig into it there's no data it sounds like it's just new so I was hoping to take credit for that in some way but don't think I can so I'm going to probably score myself a no on this one. Jason: [40:18] Yeah so tricky like I think there's some use cases where a live streaming has become a thing and collectibles, is certainly one and it does I guess toy depend on what you meant by mainstream here's the thing the most generous definition of social commerce all social commerce in the US last year was about. 60 billion in total sales and live streaming was likely less than 1% of that 60 billion so I. [40:48] Social commerce isn't that big a piece of Commerce and live streaming is in a very big piece of social commerce so I through that lens, I feel like it's not a big thing and fun fact none of the Commerce on Tick Tock is wives. It's so people do I think confused short form video with live streaming, um and so I tend to think live streaming is overhyped in the US it does work in China but what people don't understand is, that live streaming in China is, flash deal-sales like all of them come with a significant price offer and the reason that you you want to watch that stream when it's alive is because, that offer has scarcity attached to it and that offer is not going to be available two hours after the video plays so you have to watch it while it's being broadcast in order to get that deal, um and you know none of the u.s. versions have really been that that deal oriented and without that deal why have live streaming when you could just record a short form video and, you know 100 times more people watch it over the subsequent two weeks or three weeks or whatever so so for all those reasons, I feel like live streaming has been a little overhyped in the US and I agree with you why I probably didn't go mainstream this year. Scot: [42:09] Yeah I don't know Tick Tock could be live stream it's kind of there's a stream. Jason: [42:16] But it's yep are you watching it when the person talks I mean that's what it boils down to or is it recorded on a server and you watched it days later. Scot: [42:23] I don't Tick Tock I don't want I don't want my get brainwashed. Jason: [42:26] Yeah spoiler alert it's not last. Scot: [42:29] Okay. Jason: [42:33] There is a live flavor on Tik-Tok but it's been quite small. Scot: [42:37] Yeah I'm two for two so I'm Batman 50. Jason: [42:40] So you're to noes to yeses and then your final prediction, is that fabric which is a an e-commerce platform / Marketplace and and the CEO Fazal has been on a show a couple times and you were predicting that they would. What says fabric acquisition so that could mean either that they made a big acquisition or they got acquired. Scot: [43:04] Yeah it was being acquired. Jason: [43:07] Yeah that's what I said. Yes and I met him at the show and I can confirm that he's still at fabric. Scot: [43:14] How are they doing. Jason: [43:15] Really well well I think they feel like, there are well positioned and benefiting from some of these headless trends that we talked about and we had a good chat Faso as a longtime veteran of the industry and ran e-commerce at Staples and and some other places so he's always fun to talk to. Scot: [43:33] Here's a head-scratcher so facile likes to be called Faisal and then we have a guy at 50 that wants to be Fazal so so and you know you know how it is like I know it's I cannot get it right because I always it's 50/50 coin toss but it always lands the wrong way so it's. Jason: [43:52] Yes I'm familiar with those dilemmas I also really struggle with fabric because his company is called Fabric and then there's another company called fabric that make micro fulfillment centers for grocery e-commerce. If you like you can have two companies with the same name in roughly the same space. Scot: [44:08] I give him. Entrepreneur credit because he raised a boatload of money when valuations were super high which was smart if it's enough to get through to the from the peak through the valley to the next week so we'll see how it goes for. Jason: [44:25] I'm knocking on wood you just can't hear it because I'm such a good audio editor. [44:39] It's kind of your historical average right now I don't know I'm. Scot: [44:42] Usually do better than half yeah it. Jason: [44:43] You've done better actually I think that's a down year for you I think it's up here for me and a down here for you. Scot: [44:48] Post covid it's hard to predict what the what's going on in the world. Jason: [44:53] And and as we have learned doing five years of these as hard as it is to predict something happens it's also timing is so tricky like very often we predicted something just in the wrong year. Scot: [45:04] Yeah I gave up on Amazon competes with the other shippers and that one still I still think it's coming. Jason: [45:10] Hundred percent there's a weird cognitive bias where like after you've been wrong once or twice you hate to predict it again even though it probably would be smart the. Scot: [45:18] Yeah yep. Jason: [45:20] I'm with you all right well let's see if I can hang with you at all. Scot: [45:21] Alright let's see how you did yeah so your first prediction was you love web 3 you're going to mortgage your house put all your money in FTS and this token that you were super excited about that was going to the mood called FTX how'd that work out for you. Jason: [45:40] It worked out better for Michael investor Tom Brady than it did for me. Scot: [45:44] Well I don't know he's in pretty rough rough time right now. Jason: [45:49] Neither of us are having our best years. Scot: [45:50] Butts. Jason: [45:53] I'll be different reasons but I feel like you might have slightly misstated the spirit of my prediction. Scot: [45:59] Oh yeah I misread this so it says in FTS web 3 meta 15-minute delivery will be Duds less and ft dollar transactions will happen in 21 verses 22. Jason: [46:12] Yeah so I was down I didn't think any of those things would be a big deal this year I guess one of those kind of overlap with you because you also didn't think instant delivery would be a big deal. And I don't think any of them were a big deal we've covered them pretty exhausted lie but in order to make this a fair prediction I tried to put something that was more measurable and so I said in Ft transactions will be down in 2022 from 2021 and. I got to be honest I looked it up before the show and so the good news is I'm right. In Ft transactions gmv for an ftes and in the u.s. in 2021 was 25 billion 25 Point 1 billion and this year it was twenty four point seven billion so just barely down and I have to be honest, I feel like I dodged a bullet because. The way you buy an mft is with a cryptocurrency and the two main cryptocurrencies are each less than half their value. From the beginning of the year and so you would think like, in Ft transaction should be way down just because the value of the underlying currencies is way down but you know apparently like despite the fact that it's not a mainstream thing it grew enough that I was I almost ended up being. Wrong on my on my number but that's a long-winded way of saying I feel like that's a yes. Scot: [47:32] Got it cool so we'll give you a yes prediction to here in North Carolina we call it Sheen you fancy City people call it she in your prediction was that they would do over 30 billion more than double the previous year so since we're a year off so you predicted in 2022 they would double a guest from 2020 1.15 billion you check this close and I do so I'm gonna have you self-regulate this one. Jason: [48:00] Yes I nailed it like almost to the penny except that you know they're not a public company so we don't we don't really know the revenue but that estimates for for 20 21 where 15 billion so I predicted 30 billion in 2022 they did a raise in March or may of May of 2022 and they disclosed during that raised that halfway less than halfway through the year they were already at 16 billion in Revenue, year to date, so I was tracking really well and they're doing another raised right now as we speak and their side note taking a ginormous haircut on that race so the, the May raise was that a hundred billion dollar valuation the razor trying to do right now is it 64 billion, um but they disclosed in the in the deal docks for this raise that they finished the year at 30 billion which is, means that their sales significantly decelerated in the second half of the year but it means my prediction was exactly right. Scot: [49:04] Very good congrats on that one. Jason: [49:06] Yeah and we could be out of time and not do the other other predictions if you want. Scot: [49:10] Well there's one country showing let's jump into this one so your third prediction was buy now pay later which we call B and P L is going to lose momentum it had 29 percent growth and 21 and you said it would slow to sub 15 and 22. Jason: [49:28] Yeah and so it depends on exactly what math you're using but the actual growth rate in 2022 is 48.6% so is that is that more or less than 15. Scot: [49:39] I find that hard to believe. Jason: [49:41] I do too I was surprised. Scot: [49:44] Yeah no I think I'm gonna give you this one because you know the stocks on all these are down clar NE is on life support and I don't know I feel like these guys the the largest, kind of tie up was Peloton and buy now pay later and you know Peloton is had a really rough go of that in 22 and took all you know down the biggest buy now pay later operator with a firm so I feel like he just was a yes. Jason: [50:17] Okay well I'm not gonna argue with you I feel like they got a lot of, negative momentum for a variety of reasons in in 2022 and right now we're seeing their valuations go way down because their default rates are starting to go up and what I'm noticing is, they're all trying to Pivot out of buy now pay later into other, other retail services but like depending on how much of a stickler you might be like they still apparently sold a lot of stuff on buy now pay later last. I'll take the yes or at least I'll take a half a yes. Scot: [50:48] I'll give you the win but I'll scold you for bad predicting like never get specific with percentages. Jason: [50:53] I know I know well I was I feel like so many people make these like lame predictions that I was trying to be super specific but I agree that was that was dumb alright thanks man you should great all my stuff. Scot: [51:02] Now this next one is kind of a Whopper so this is this is kind of my favorite so you predicted Amazon would open 100 grocery stores how's that one going. Jason: [51:15] It's great they opened one store and that store opened 365 times. But if you're doing store count. I missed it pretty substantially that I think they have 44 stores in the US and 17 stores in the UK so well short of 100, the end and I'm way less optimistic that they're going to invest in that that concept, now than I was a year ago when I made this prediction so that's definitely a no the only fun fact is compared to any other retail Concept in Amazon this one did pretty well because they literally closed every other one, and they're they're laying off a ton of the retail people like right now as we speak unfortunately so. So I think that's a clear no it does not seem like the immediate future for Amazon is in brick and mortar. Scot: [52:07] Yeah yeah they've really pulled in the horns on that one. Jason: [52:11] Fun fact then this means nothing no one should interpret this but Amazon close their bookstores in 2022 and Barnes and Noble was opening new book store some joint too so I think there was a time when we would have said that could never happen. Scot: [52:25] Yeah one of these is not going to be going well okay your last prediction was that last you there would be a last mile delivery acquisition of some kind you mentioned instacart v0x delivery and ship iam. Jason: [52:41] Yeah and none of them were acquiring so I think, I miss this I mean if you go deep cut enough I found there's a couple like four million dollar transactions that happen but none of the name ones did anything there they did some fundraising the the premise behind this, this prediction last year was, that one of the ways that a lot of e-commerce sites deliver packages is not exclusively through FedEx UPS in u.s. post office, that increasingly they're using a Federation of a bunch of small last-mile companies and that often there's a middle man that's helping aggregate all those small a smile companies that make it easier to ship with them, and so my thought was that's becoming a more important. [53:27] Part of the e-commerce echo system that somebody's going to try to make a big play there and kind of roll some of them up or acquire some of them and and you know kind of add them together and make something more valuable, um and it didn't happen last year and what's interesting is, Fedex rates and UPS rates are going way up this year like one of the conversations I had with a lot of e-commerce sites, last year was that their last mile costs are going up at an untenable rate so this. This methodology is becoming more important and more popular so this is a classic example, if I were smart I should probably take this this prediction and double down again on it for this year but spoiler alert I did not do that I just took the no and I moved on. Scot: [54:12] All right so out of your five you had sixty percent so you had three correct and to wrong so you you win the year so congratulations you get the virtual trophy you get an mft, ironically you get the nft the Jason Scott exclusive one of one in Ft. Jason: [54:38] I'm super excited about that for all our listeners I only accept in ft's that are minted on proof of stake blockchains I don't accept proof-of-work blockchains because they're an ecologically. Scot: [54:51] So it's Solana for you all right I know we're Up Against Time the shows always go a little long so I'm going to kind of lightning round my predictions for 2023. [55:15] All right so number one Amazon uses the this 2022, perceived setback that I think's way overblown you kind of mentioned it at the top and, I think what's going to happen is sure e-commerce is going to revert to the mean but under the hood I feel like they're going to be taking share at a really aggressive clip, the reason to borrow on shipping the selection of things that are near you is going up, I have through my day job I can see that they are making a lot of good changes with last mile delivery they're still putting a lot of effort into that and improving it and making it better all the time so so basically I think they're going to you know if I have to, get a little more specific I think they're going to take a fair amount of share in 2023 from the rest of e-commerce so they already are like more than half of e-commerce and I think they grab a chunk so that's kind of how I would measure this is what percentage of e-commerce Amazon has and I think they're going to take, pretty good chunk. Jason: [56:19] I like it cool. Scot: [56:20] That's my first one number two is I think Shopify is going to be acquired you know so I think they're doing this headless thing the first party piece hurts them and a lot of you know Facebook so that's a natural Binding Together they're there we're going to talk about it in a future show but they're kind of they have never really executed on this idea of a Marketplace they've had a lot of weird cultural things where they talked about getting rid of meanings and then like their hole. Admin interface was down for days it feels like something's going on they've had a lot of people a lot of turnover they've gone totally virtual I'm not a fan of that I think it's hard to be super Innovative and have to whatever the world changes have to hop on a DSM calls to figure out what everyone's thinking so I think I think they're they definitely we've hit Peak Shopify probably you know in 2021 and this is when it starts to be time maybe some people say hey this wouldn't be a bad time to to tap out here, we'll see. Jason: [57:24] Wow that's awesome one just quick curiosity one problem is the valuation like while it's gone down a lot is still pretty high like so the pool of acquirers is pretty small or are you thinking the valuations going to keep going down low enough that there's. That more people might take a shot at it. Scot: [57:42] Yeah I think I think even at this valuation there's probably three or four acquirers and I think the valuation could go down further. Jason: [57:48] All right cool I like I love the big bold ones. Scot: [57:51] Yeah you're going to hate this next one so this one is where everyone thinks AI is hype I'm thinking there's going to be a big innovation we don't see it from these new AI engines specifically right now the state of the artist G PT 3, I know people have seen GPT for and they all can't express enough how game-changing it's going to be so I think there's going to be something in the e-commerce world not this is like so it has to be kind of a big idea so I can't be just like a chatbot or like another recommendation engine but I think there's gonna be something kind of, big here that's hard, it's so different that it could be hard to I can't tell what it's going to be but I think something big is going to happen here that kind of makes our heads explode so that's my prediction that we actually see a really, disruptive piece of technology kind of AI that impacts the e-commerce world. Jason: [58:47] Okay I like it I don't have a other than it's going to be higher so you hard to measure but I guess we'll know it when we see it. Scot: [58:56] Yeah. Yeah and then since we've got great each other gives you a lot of fodder to push against ich number for e-commerce is going to accelerate back so I think and the first half will have these recessionary wins I'm a eternal optimist you're typically on the pessimist I think we'll have a soft Landing maybe we don't have much of a recession and then in the back half will be kind of through this post covid Hayes hopefully I think part of this prediction in Furs that inflation will will kind of get under control and we'll see e-commerce go back to kind of its average growth rate which has been historically 15 percentage so that's my prediction there. Jason: [59:38] Okay yeah I think they're a bunch of people that are like kind of e-commerce growth is tapped out which is I think they're wildly wrong so I certainly take the bullish side of that one for you. Scot: [59:50] Yeah and then this one I have to give props to my daughter I was she was looking over my shoulder and I was doing these and she said I have one and I said you don't understand the stakes I've got to be Jason because I did bad this year and she said I don't care I'm 16 and I spend a lot of time at Sephora and Ulta this is her speaking not me I also do because I'm with her but now she can drive so I'm spending less time there and I think they're going to come out with some kind of a subscription model so, there you go I don't know any specifics but that is her hot take. Jason: [1:00:21] Okay and and by that you don't mean they're going to transition their whole business to a subscription you mean they're going to add some kind of subscription offering okay. Scot: [1:00:28] Yeah yeah and you know I was thinking you know what was that one there was a box that was Beauty used Beauty Box every over the name of that. Jason: [1:00:38] Yeah there. Scot: [1:00:39] I don't think I made it yeah and I said you mean like that. Jason: [1:00:43] Box is that what. Scot: [1:00:44] Birchbox well very good man yeah old school way to pull that one out and she said no it'll be more like I can go to the store and they'll I can I can pick up kind of like they'll pull stuff for me that comes in and I could just go to the store and it'll be already there for you. To understand. Jason: [1:01:05] Clarifying question because far be it for me like I want to learn to like and your daughter certainly have the future behavior that neither of us understand yet. Is she thinking like that in the same way that Birchbox was kind of a discovery thing she's thinking this is some kind of. Discovery thing of new products because I actually think Sephora already has a like you know if you use this amount of moisturizer will automatically send you a new thing a moisturizer every three months. Scot: [1:01:35] This was tied more to influence your site so I think there's these influencers and they each have kind of staked out you know there each store has a set of influencers and I think she's starting to see them come out with seasonal products kind of like a yeah and I think that it'll be a subscription to that kind of thing. Jason: [1:01:52] That makes total sense that would be new and I. Could seem cool a lot of the traditional subscriptions lately have not done as well as some of us might have expected but so yeah this this will be interesting kind of like the next gen of those Discovery boxes. Scot: [1:02:09] One thing I did notice in my last six I think this is for they have a end cap that says inspired by Tick-Tock and it's always empty. And as estimate I was like are they she's like oh every time they put something there so I was up and I was like wow that's pretty amazing. Jason: [1:02:28] The Tik Tok made me buy it in cap. [1:02:38] I'm 100% with you social commerce is a thing and it's mostly not about people ordering stuff on Tick Tock it's about people discovering stuff on Tick Tock and then buying it from Sephora. Scot: [1:02:47] I know I was trying to get some partial credit. Jason: [1:02:51] Yeah I like it though all right I think those are great. Scot: [1:02:54] And then in the spirit of my third prediction which was a I will change the world I actually asked chatgpt to make a prediction and it said. Chatgpt: [1:03:04] Based on Trends and current developments in e-commerce it is likely that we will see continued growth and expansion in the industry with an emphasis on mobile Commerce. Personalized shopping experiences and increased use of Technologies such as artificial intelligence and virtual reality. Additionally there may be an increased focus on issues such as sustainability and social responsibility in e-commerce. Scot: [1:03:30] And when it said that I was thought I thought you were punking me I thought you were on the other side of the chat because I was like that's exactly what someone at publicist would say. Someone with a really long title like eight words that's the exact kind of synergistic linguistic word salad that they would they would throw out. Jason: [1:03:52] Yeah there's nothing super tangible in there but it sounds really good That's a classic chatgpt answer. Scot: [1:03:58] So one way my my one prediction could come true as if you're replaced by an AI so I'll just I'm not that's not a prediction is just one way I could cheat my prediction. Jason: [1:04:08] So fun fact is some people know I have a Forbes column and my my most recent Forbes article was about the demise of e-commerce being overhyped. Often I read those articles from scratch myself sometimes I write an outline or a first draft and I send it to a pupusas copywriter and they send me back a first draft and then I edit it and. When I do that I have to do a lot of work because of the copywriters are really talented writers and use proper English and I'm really. Less sophisticated so to put it in my. In my voice I have to change it a lot so this most recent Forbes article I had chatgpt writer and I said write a Forbes article in the voice of Jason Goldberg that has this title and makes these Five Points. Um and so it didn't really do any research for me it didn't like pick any of the answers because I gave it all the answers in my prompt and the data I wanted to support it. It was kind of like I handed it my outline and had it right the first draft in my voice and it was way closer to exactly what I wanted then the ones I get from the copywriter so I probably will never write a first draft from scratch again. Scot: [1:05:25] Does that mean that copywriters going to lose their job. Jason: [1:05:28] No she's gonna move to higher value stuff from now the actual smart people to do some good with proper English. Scot: [1:05:36] Unrelated we going to have a new new podcast host. Jason: [1:05:42] The yeah that we're way over on time but like the the really scary one is these awesome avatars that can make, I can learn your voice and then sound perfectly like your voice are now out in the wild from several companies including Adobe and, and I conveniently have 3:00 of my own voice and your voice on wreck so I think I can make the two of us say anything we. Scot: [1:06:07] Yep I think again. Jason: [1:06:09] Awesome all right well those all seem like good predictions that seems like you have a very viable chance of coming back and getting your nft trophy back for me, I will whip through mine, I suffered greatly because we are recording this late I wrote my predictions of the beginning of the year and I said Party City and Bed Bath and Beyond are going to declare bankruptcy, and unfortunately pretty soon declared bankruptcy yesterday in Bed Bath and Beyond hasn't cleared yet but they've announced publicly that there, they're likely to so I can't really use that prediction but I'm going to say that there are going to be at least two other retail bankruptcies besides Party City in the in the space this year, um you know I think Bed Bath and Beyond is likely to declare bankruptcy but I also think we might see some of the kind of model-based apparel retailers or. There's a few other other retards I have my eye on so I do think we're

Future Commerce  - A Retail Strategy Podcast

Even in the aftermath of difficulties within the retail and commerce world, there is a relentless positivity and excitement shared among those living and working in it. This was evident at The NRF Big Show this year. Have a listen as Phillip and Brian share more about their perspective on this and what this could mean for the very near future!Aggressive OptimismThe NRF Big Show was great, and everyone was enthusiastic about being there, back at the Big Show like old timesWalmart Technologies and the strides they are making is impressive and really overtaking Amazon when it comes to eCommerce experience and customer expectationsShopify, coming in with a booth at NRF, with their Commerce Components roll out made quite the splash“Regardless of whether you think you already provide a lot of these products and services, the ecosystem needs you to just say it in their language.” - Phillip“People look for creative ways to use tools they're familiar with.” - BrianDespite fake news about a downturn in sales, inflation is slowing, and that techno-optimism can't be turned down or slowed down right nowBrian and Phillip share some of their favorite parts of the NRF Big Show and why they were impactfulThe world in which we live is one where it takes a whole lot for people to go deepThere were a lot of robotics at The Big Show this year, and interestingly also a lot of ChadsAs we walk through a season where cost management is high, companies may want to forego cloud prices and find other solutionsAssociated Links:Check out Retail Remix by Alicia Esposito here.Have you checked out our YouTube channel yet?Get your copy of Archetypes, our newly published 240-page journal! Check it out at ArchetypesJournal.comSubscribe to Insiders and The Senses to read more of what we are witnessing in the commerce world! Listen to our other episodes of Future CommerceHave any questions or comments about the show? Let us know on Futurecommerce.fm, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We love hearing from our listeners!

Daily News Brief
Daily News Brief for Thursday, January 19th, 2023

Daily News Brief

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 19, 2023 16:26


CLUB PORTAL CONTENT - Martin Luther King Jr. – A Wrongfully Religious Saint For The Right & The Left 0:10-2:31 That was our backstage show featuring Chad Jackson of Uncle Tom 2 And This is Garrison Hardie with your CrossPolitic Daily Newsbrief for Thursday, January 19th, 2023. Ladies and gentleman, now is the time to sign up for a club membership at fightlaughfeast.com! This year, CrossPolitic will be dropping EXCLUSIVE content into our club portal, that you won’t be able to find ANYWHERE else. Some of this content will include a Bible study series with Pastor Toby, a special with New Saint Andrew’s President, Ben Merkle, our backstage content, and probably stuff that Gabe hasn’t told myself Toby or Knox about! So again, head on over to fightlaughfeast.com to get signed up today! That’s fightlaughfeast.com. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/18/holiday-2022-sales-fall-short-of-expectations.html Holiday sales fall short of expectations, set stage for tougher 2023 for retailers Holiday sales came in below industry expectations, as shoppers felt pinched by inflation and rising interest rates, according to data from the National Retail Federation. Sales during November and December grew 5.3% year over year to $936.3 billion, below the major trade group’s prediction for growth of between 6% and 8% over the year prior. In early November, NRF had projected spending of between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion. The retail sales number excludes spending at automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants, and is based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau. It covers the period from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31. The holiday sales gains include the impact of inflation, which drives up total sales. The consumer price index, which measures the cost of a broad mix of goods and services, was up 6.5% in December compared with a year ago, according to the Labor Department. For retailers, the shopping season’s results reflect the challenges ahead. As Americans continue to pay higher prices for groceries, housing and more month after month, they are racking up credit card balances, spending down savings and having fewer dollars for discretionary spending. Plus, retailers are following years of extraordinary spending. During the Covid pandemic, Americans fought boredom and used stimulus checks by buying loungewear, throw pillows, kitchen supplies, home theater systems and more. That translated to sharp year-over-year jumps in retail sales in the past two holiday seasons — a 14.1% gain in 2021 and 8.3% gain in 2020. On average, holidays sales have grown by 4.9% annually over the past decade, according to NRF. NRF Chief Executive Matt Shay said those upward leaps were unsustainable, especially as people return to commuting, going out to dinner and booking vacations again. Plus, he said, Americans are paying higher prices across the board, from pricier rents to more expensive groceries. Sales rose in most major retail categories during the holiday season. Online and nonstore sales saw the biggest year-over-year gains, jumping 9.5% during the holiday season. Sales at grocery and beverage stores, which have had significant price increases, rose 7.8% versus the year-ago period. Demand in some categories noticeably weakened. Sales at furniture and home furnishings stores declined 1.1% and sales at electronics and appliances stores dropped 5.7% year over year. https://www.dailyfetched.com/climate-group-turns-on-world-economic-forum-after-hundreds-of-private-jets-fly-into-davos/ Climate Group Turns on World Economic Forum after Hundreds of Private Jets Fly into Davos Greenpeace torched the World Economic Forum attendees for traveling to Davos, Switzerland, in a scathing rebuke of the Klaus Schwab run event. According to a newly released analysis commissioned by Greenpeace found, approximately 1,040 private jets flew in and out of airports servicing Davos during last year’s World Economic Forum conference. Of those jets, most were embarking on short-haul flights of less than 500 miles that “could have easily been train or car trips.” One plane carried its passengers a mere 13 miles to attend the event. The analysis, conducted by Dutch environmental consulting firm CE Delft, also revealed that the number of arrivals and departures out of Davos airports included neighboring countries such as Germany, France, and Italy. The research concluded that private jet travel in the WEF “Great Reset’ event in 2021 produced carbon emissions equivalent to those caused in one week by 350,000 cars. Private jet emissions linked to Davos quadrupled during the week of the event compared to weeks before and after the meeting. The WEF’s theme for 2023 is “Cooperation in a Fragmented World,” which involves “how we can tackle the numerous and interlinked challenges the world is facing and find solutions through public-private cooperation,” the organization’s press release said. Klaus Schwab said in his opening remarks that “investing into a greener and therefore more sustainable economy” is one of the main objectives of the conference attendees. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also confirmed during her remarks that policymakers would endeavor to “reach net zero” carbon emissions. Member states of the European Union which rely on fossil fuel production to combat climate change, were forced to scramble for new power supplies after the Nord Stream pipeline attack and Russia’s severing reserves. https://townhall.com/tipsheet/juliorosas/2023/01/17/wef-danger-of-disinformation-panel-hate-speech-laws-on-the-way-to-the-us-n2618383 Speaking of the World Economic Forum WEF 'Danger of Disinformation' Panel: Hate Speech Laws Coming to the US One participant in the World Economic Forum's panel on "The Clear and Present Danger of Disinformation" at their annual meeting in Davos on Tuesday had a chilling prediction for hate speech laws in the United States. The panel, hosted by former CNN host Brian Stelter, also featured Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) and Arthur Gregg Sulzberger, the chairman of The New York Times Company. European Commission Vice President for Values and Transparency Věra Jourová, who is from the Czech Republic, said there are reasons why many parts in Europe have strong speech code laws and the United States could soon have them too. "Illegal hate speech, which you will have soon also in the U.S., I think that we have a strong reason why we have this in the criminal law," Jourová said. "We need to the platforms to simply work with the language and to identify such cases." Sulzberger said overall disinformation is "the most existential" challenge and whatever problems with reporting stories inaccurately, the New York Times has made corrections. https://twitter.com/i/status/1615371127106441219 - Play Video Now this… https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2023/01/17/taliban-reportedly-buying-blue-checks-on-twitter-n524292 Taliban reportedly buying blue checks on Twitter If you thought things on Twitter were getting a bit weird since Elon Musk took over, buckle up. The strangeness continues this week. There has been quite a debate taking place over Musk’s decision to revamp the “verification” system and sell checkmarks of various colors to anyone who requests one and is willing to fork over a small monthly payment. Plenty of people have been taking advantage of that offer, gaining some amplification of their tweets and other user options not available to the hoi polloi. So perhaps we shouldn’t have been all that surprised to learn that high-ranking officials from the Taliban have gotten in on the action, but it still certainly sounds disturbing at first glance. (BBC) The Taliban have started using Twitter’s paid-for verification feature, meaning some now have blue ticks on their accounts. Previously, the blue tick indicated “active, notable, and authentic accounts of public interest” verified by Twitter, and could not be purchased. But now, users can buy them through the new Twitter Blue service. At least two Taliban officials and four prominent supporters in Afghanistan are currently using the checkmarks. One of the terrorist officials who now has a blue check is Hedayatullah Hedayat, the head of the Taliban’s department for “access to information.” He is definitely on Twitter with more than 180,000 followers and he tweets regularly. But I don’t see a checkmark of any color by his name. Gravity Jack Conference: It’s Less than two weeks to go for the Christians In Web3 Summit 2023! This is definitely going to be a historic gathering with KGEB TV, Patmos, Kingdom Warriors, Public SQ, Christian Vision, Heaven's Entrepreneurs, and 30+ more organizations represented at the event. CrossPolitic is one of them by the way… The event is hosted by Forum12 in partnership with Oral Roberts University, and they’re bringing together top leaders in Web3, AR/VR, Metaverses, Ministry, Tech, and Business space to further the Kingdom and unite as many Christians together to build solutions and not live in fear with that's happening in the world! With experiences like, networking, musical performances, roundtable discussions, panels, pitch night, and workshops, you won't want to miss this opportunity to connect with other Christians in Web3 and learn about the latest technologies being used to share the Gospel and empower believers. The event will take place both in-person at Oral Roberts University in Tulsa, OK and online through Gather.Town & streaming experiences.Visit forum12.com/web3-summit/ for more information! That’s forum12.com/web3-summit Over to China… https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/chinas-first-population-drop-in-six-decades-sounds-alarm-on-demographic-crisis China’s population fell last year for the first time in six decades, a historic turn that is expected to mark the start of a long period of decline in its citizen numbers with profound implications for its economy and the world. The country’s National Bureau of Statistics reported a drop of roughly 850,000 people for a population of 1.41175 billion in 2022, marking the first decline since 1961, the last year of China’s Great Famine. That possibly makes India the world’s most populous nation. U.N. experts predicted last year India would have a population of 1.412 billion in 2022 though they did not expect the South Asian nation to overtake China until this year. India, however, only collects population figures every 10 years and its latest census, originally scheduled for 2021, has been delayed due to the pandemic. Long-term, U.N. experts see China’s population shrinking by 109 million by 2050, more than triple the decline of their previous forecast in 2019. That’s caused domestic demographers to lament that China will get old before it gets rich, slowing the economy as revenues drop and government debt increases due to soaring health and welfare costs. the country’s shrinking labor force and downturn in manufacturing heft would further exacerbate high prices and high inflation in the United States and Europe. China’s birth rate last year was just 6.77 births per 1,000 people, down from a rate of 7.52 births in 2021 and marking the lowest birth rate on record. The number of Chinese women of childbearing age, which the government defines as aged 25 to 35, fell by about 4 million, Kang said. The death rate, the highest since 1974 during the Cultural Revolution, was 7.37 deaths per 1,000 people, which compares with a rate of 7.18 deaths in 2021. Much of the demographic downturn is the result of China’s one-child policy imposed between 1980 and 2015 as well as sky-high education costs that have put many Chinese off having more than one child or even having any at all. The one-child policy and a traditional preference for boys have also created a deep gender imbalance. The latest data shows China with around 722 million males compared to 690 million females. The imbalance, which is more pronounced in rural areas, has led to fewer families being formed in recent years.

Fight Laugh Feast USA
Daily News Brief for Thursday, January 19th, 2023 [Daily News Brief]

Fight Laugh Feast USA

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 19, 2023 16:26


CLUB PORTAL CONTENT - Martin Luther King Jr. – A Wrongfully Religious Saint For The Right & The Left 0:10-2:31 That was our backstage show featuring Chad Jackson of Uncle Tom 2 And This is Garrison Hardie with your CrossPolitic Daily Newsbrief for Thursday, January 19th, 2023. Ladies and gentleman, now is the time to sign up for a club membership at fightlaughfeast.com! This year, CrossPolitic will be dropping EXCLUSIVE content into our club portal, that you won’t be able to find ANYWHERE else. Some of this content will include a Bible study series with Pastor Toby, a special with New Saint Andrew’s President, Ben Merkle, our backstage content, and probably stuff that Gabe hasn’t told myself Toby or Knox about! So again, head on over to fightlaughfeast.com to get signed up today! That’s fightlaughfeast.com. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/18/holiday-2022-sales-fall-short-of-expectations.html Holiday sales fall short of expectations, set stage for tougher 2023 for retailers Holiday sales came in below industry expectations, as shoppers felt pinched by inflation and rising interest rates, according to data from the National Retail Federation. Sales during November and December grew 5.3% year over year to $936.3 billion, below the major trade group’s prediction for growth of between 6% and 8% over the year prior. In early November, NRF had projected spending of between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion. The retail sales number excludes spending at automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants, and is based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau. It covers the period from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31. The holiday sales gains include the impact of inflation, which drives up total sales. The consumer price index, which measures the cost of a broad mix of goods and services, was up 6.5% in December compared with a year ago, according to the Labor Department. For retailers, the shopping season’s results reflect the challenges ahead. As Americans continue to pay higher prices for groceries, housing and more month after month, they are racking up credit card balances, spending down savings and having fewer dollars for discretionary spending. Plus, retailers are following years of extraordinary spending. During the Covid pandemic, Americans fought boredom and used stimulus checks by buying loungewear, throw pillows, kitchen supplies, home theater systems and more. That translated to sharp year-over-year jumps in retail sales in the past two holiday seasons — a 14.1% gain in 2021 and 8.3% gain in 2020. On average, holidays sales have grown by 4.9% annually over the past decade, according to NRF. NRF Chief Executive Matt Shay said those upward leaps were unsustainable, especially as people return to commuting, going out to dinner and booking vacations again. Plus, he said, Americans are paying higher prices across the board, from pricier rents to more expensive groceries. Sales rose in most major retail categories during the holiday season. Online and nonstore sales saw the biggest year-over-year gains, jumping 9.5% during the holiday season. Sales at grocery and beverage stores, which have had significant price increases, rose 7.8% versus the year-ago period. Demand in some categories noticeably weakened. Sales at furniture and home furnishings stores declined 1.1% and sales at electronics and appliances stores dropped 5.7% year over year. https://www.dailyfetched.com/climate-group-turns-on-world-economic-forum-after-hundreds-of-private-jets-fly-into-davos/ Climate Group Turns on World Economic Forum after Hundreds of Private Jets Fly into Davos Greenpeace torched the World Economic Forum attendees for traveling to Davos, Switzerland, in a scathing rebuke of the Klaus Schwab run event. According to a newly released analysis commissioned by Greenpeace found, approximately 1,040 private jets flew in and out of airports servicing Davos during last year’s World Economic Forum conference. Of those jets, most were embarking on short-haul flights of less than 500 miles that “could have easily been train or car trips.” One plane carried its passengers a mere 13 miles to attend the event. The analysis, conducted by Dutch environmental consulting firm CE Delft, also revealed that the number of arrivals and departures out of Davos airports included neighboring countries such as Germany, France, and Italy. The research concluded that private jet travel in the WEF “Great Reset’ event in 2021 produced carbon emissions equivalent to those caused in one week by 350,000 cars. Private jet emissions linked to Davos quadrupled during the week of the event compared to weeks before and after the meeting. The WEF’s theme for 2023 is “Cooperation in a Fragmented World,” which involves “how we can tackle the numerous and interlinked challenges the world is facing and find solutions through public-private cooperation,” the organization’s press release said. Klaus Schwab said in his opening remarks that “investing into a greener and therefore more sustainable economy” is one of the main objectives of the conference attendees. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also confirmed during her remarks that policymakers would endeavor to “reach net zero” carbon emissions. Member states of the European Union which rely on fossil fuel production to combat climate change, were forced to scramble for new power supplies after the Nord Stream pipeline attack and Russia’s severing reserves. https://townhall.com/tipsheet/juliorosas/2023/01/17/wef-danger-of-disinformation-panel-hate-speech-laws-on-the-way-to-the-us-n2618383 Speaking of the World Economic Forum WEF 'Danger of Disinformation' Panel: Hate Speech Laws Coming to the US One participant in the World Economic Forum's panel on "The Clear and Present Danger of Disinformation" at their annual meeting in Davos on Tuesday had a chilling prediction for hate speech laws in the United States. The panel, hosted by former CNN host Brian Stelter, also featured Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) and Arthur Gregg Sulzberger, the chairman of The New York Times Company. European Commission Vice President for Values and Transparency Věra Jourová, who is from the Czech Republic, said there are reasons why many parts in Europe have strong speech code laws and the United States could soon have them too. "Illegal hate speech, which you will have soon also in the U.S., I think that we have a strong reason why we have this in the criminal law," Jourová said. "We need to the platforms to simply work with the language and to identify such cases." Sulzberger said overall disinformation is "the most existential" challenge and whatever problems with reporting stories inaccurately, the New York Times has made corrections. https://twitter.com/i/status/1615371127106441219 - Play Video Now this… https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2023/01/17/taliban-reportedly-buying-blue-checks-on-twitter-n524292 Taliban reportedly buying blue checks on Twitter If you thought things on Twitter were getting a bit weird since Elon Musk took over, buckle up. The strangeness continues this week. There has been quite a debate taking place over Musk’s decision to revamp the “verification” system and sell checkmarks of various colors to anyone who requests one and is willing to fork over a small monthly payment. Plenty of people have been taking advantage of that offer, gaining some amplification of their tweets and other user options not available to the hoi polloi. So perhaps we shouldn’t have been all that surprised to learn that high-ranking officials from the Taliban have gotten in on the action, but it still certainly sounds disturbing at first glance. (BBC) The Taliban have started using Twitter’s paid-for verification feature, meaning some now have blue ticks on their accounts. Previously, the blue tick indicated “active, notable, and authentic accounts of public interest” verified by Twitter, and could not be purchased. But now, users can buy them through the new Twitter Blue service. At least two Taliban officials and four prominent supporters in Afghanistan are currently using the checkmarks. One of the terrorist officials who now has a blue check is Hedayatullah Hedayat, the head of the Taliban’s department for “access to information.” He is definitely on Twitter with more than 180,000 followers and he tweets regularly. But I don’t see a checkmark of any color by his name. Gravity Jack Conference: It’s Less than two weeks to go for the Christians In Web3 Summit 2023! This is definitely going to be a historic gathering with KGEB TV, Patmos, Kingdom Warriors, Public SQ, Christian Vision, Heaven's Entrepreneurs, and 30+ more organizations represented at the event. CrossPolitic is one of them by the way… The event is hosted by Forum12 in partnership with Oral Roberts University, and they’re bringing together top leaders in Web3, AR/VR, Metaverses, Ministry, Tech, and Business space to further the Kingdom and unite as many Christians together to build solutions and not live in fear with that's happening in the world! With experiences like, networking, musical performances, roundtable discussions, panels, pitch night, and workshops, you won't want to miss this opportunity to connect with other Christians in Web3 and learn about the latest technologies being used to share the Gospel and empower believers. The event will take place both in-person at Oral Roberts University in Tulsa, OK and online through Gather.Town & streaming experiences.Visit forum12.com/web3-summit/ for more information! That’s forum12.com/web3-summit Over to China… https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/chinas-first-population-drop-in-six-decades-sounds-alarm-on-demographic-crisis China’s population fell last year for the first time in six decades, a historic turn that is expected to mark the start of a long period of decline in its citizen numbers with profound implications for its economy and the world. The country’s National Bureau of Statistics reported a drop of roughly 850,000 people for a population of 1.41175 billion in 2022, marking the first decline since 1961, the last year of China’s Great Famine. That possibly makes India the world’s most populous nation. U.N. experts predicted last year India would have a population of 1.412 billion in 2022 though they did not expect the South Asian nation to overtake China until this year. India, however, only collects population figures every 10 years and its latest census, originally scheduled for 2021, has been delayed due to the pandemic. Long-term, U.N. experts see China’s population shrinking by 109 million by 2050, more than triple the decline of their previous forecast in 2019. That’s caused domestic demographers to lament that China will get old before it gets rich, slowing the economy as revenues drop and government debt increases due to soaring health and welfare costs. the country’s shrinking labor force and downturn in manufacturing heft would further exacerbate high prices and high inflation in the United States and Europe. China’s birth rate last year was just 6.77 births per 1,000 people, down from a rate of 7.52 births in 2021 and marking the lowest birth rate on record. The number of Chinese women of childbearing age, which the government defines as aged 25 to 35, fell by about 4 million, Kang said. The death rate, the highest since 1974 during the Cultural Revolution, was 7.37 deaths per 1,000 people, which compares with a rate of 7.18 deaths in 2021. Much of the demographic downturn is the result of China’s one-child policy imposed between 1980 and 2015 as well as sky-high education costs that have put many Chinese off having more than one child or even having any at all. The one-child policy and a traditional preference for boys have also created a deep gender imbalance. The latest data shows China with around 722 million males compared to 690 million females. The imbalance, which is more pronounced in rural areas, has led to fewer families being formed in recent years.

Rádio Gaúcha
Como empresas captam e cruzam seus dados para conhecê-lo mais do que você mesmo

Rádio Gaúcha

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 19, 2023 12:36


Conhecer os clientes e oferecer uma jornada completa de consumo é fundamental para o sucesso de um negócio. Mas como funciona a coleta e análise desses dados? Qual a vantagem para o consumidor? Giane Guerra está na maior feira de varejo do mundo, a NRF, em Nova York, nos Estados Unidos, e conversa neste episódio com Elia Chatah, líder de Varejo da SAP Brasil. Oferecimento: Messem Investimentos

CrossPolitic Studios
Daily News Brief for Thursday, January 19th, 2023 [Daily News Brief]

CrossPolitic Studios

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 19, 2023 16:26


CLUB PORTAL CONTENT - Martin Luther King Jr. – A Wrongfully Religious Saint For The Right & The Left 0:10-2:31 That was our backstage show featuring Chad Jackson of Uncle Tom 2 And This is Garrison Hardie with your CrossPolitic Daily Newsbrief for Thursday, January 19th, 2023. Ladies and gentleman, now is the time to sign up for a club membership at fightlaughfeast.com! This year, CrossPolitic will be dropping EXCLUSIVE content into our club portal, that you won’t be able to find ANYWHERE else. Some of this content will include a Bible study series with Pastor Toby, a special with New Saint Andrew’s President, Ben Merkle, our backstage content, and probably stuff that Gabe hasn’t told myself Toby or Knox about! So again, head on over to fightlaughfeast.com to get signed up today! That’s fightlaughfeast.com. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/18/holiday-2022-sales-fall-short-of-expectations.html Holiday sales fall short of expectations, set stage for tougher 2023 for retailers Holiday sales came in below industry expectations, as shoppers felt pinched by inflation and rising interest rates, according to data from the National Retail Federation. Sales during November and December grew 5.3% year over year to $936.3 billion, below the major trade group’s prediction for growth of between 6% and 8% over the year prior. In early November, NRF had projected spending of between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion. The retail sales number excludes spending at automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants, and is based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau. It covers the period from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31. The holiday sales gains include the impact of inflation, which drives up total sales. The consumer price index, which measures the cost of a broad mix of goods and services, was up 6.5% in December compared with a year ago, according to the Labor Department. For retailers, the shopping season’s results reflect the challenges ahead. As Americans continue to pay higher prices for groceries, housing and more month after month, they are racking up credit card balances, spending down savings and having fewer dollars for discretionary spending. Plus, retailers are following years of extraordinary spending. During the Covid pandemic, Americans fought boredom and used stimulus checks by buying loungewear, throw pillows, kitchen supplies, home theater systems and more. That translated to sharp year-over-year jumps in retail sales in the past two holiday seasons — a 14.1% gain in 2021 and 8.3% gain in 2020. On average, holidays sales have grown by 4.9% annually over the past decade, according to NRF. NRF Chief Executive Matt Shay said those upward leaps were unsustainable, especially as people return to commuting, going out to dinner and booking vacations again. Plus, he said, Americans are paying higher prices across the board, from pricier rents to more expensive groceries. Sales rose in most major retail categories during the holiday season. Online and nonstore sales saw the biggest year-over-year gains, jumping 9.5% during the holiday season. Sales at grocery and beverage stores, which have had significant price increases, rose 7.8% versus the year-ago period. Demand in some categories noticeably weakened. Sales at furniture and home furnishings stores declined 1.1% and sales at electronics and appliances stores dropped 5.7% year over year. https://www.dailyfetched.com/climate-group-turns-on-world-economic-forum-after-hundreds-of-private-jets-fly-into-davos/ Climate Group Turns on World Economic Forum after Hundreds of Private Jets Fly into Davos Greenpeace torched the World Economic Forum attendees for traveling to Davos, Switzerland, in a scathing rebuke of the Klaus Schwab run event. According to a newly released analysis commissioned by Greenpeace found, approximately 1,040 private jets flew in and out of airports servicing Davos during last year’s World Economic Forum conference. Of those jets, most were embarking on short-haul flights of less than 500 miles that “could have easily been train or car trips.” One plane carried its passengers a mere 13 miles to attend the event. The analysis, conducted by Dutch environmental consulting firm CE Delft, also revealed that the number of arrivals and departures out of Davos airports included neighboring countries such as Germany, France, and Italy. The research concluded that private jet travel in the WEF “Great Reset’ event in 2021 produced carbon emissions equivalent to those caused in one week by 350,000 cars. Private jet emissions linked to Davos quadrupled during the week of the event compared to weeks before and after the meeting. The WEF’s theme for 2023 is “Cooperation in a Fragmented World,” which involves “how we can tackle the numerous and interlinked challenges the world is facing and find solutions through public-private cooperation,” the organization’s press release said. Klaus Schwab said in his opening remarks that “investing into a greener and therefore more sustainable economy” is one of the main objectives of the conference attendees. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also confirmed during her remarks that policymakers would endeavor to “reach net zero” carbon emissions. Member states of the European Union which rely on fossil fuel production to combat climate change, were forced to scramble for new power supplies after the Nord Stream pipeline attack and Russia’s severing reserves. https://townhall.com/tipsheet/juliorosas/2023/01/17/wef-danger-of-disinformation-panel-hate-speech-laws-on-the-way-to-the-us-n2618383 Speaking of the World Economic Forum WEF 'Danger of Disinformation' Panel: Hate Speech Laws Coming to the US One participant in the World Economic Forum's panel on "The Clear and Present Danger of Disinformation" at their annual meeting in Davos on Tuesday had a chilling prediction for hate speech laws in the United States. The panel, hosted by former CNN host Brian Stelter, also featured Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) and Arthur Gregg Sulzberger, the chairman of The New York Times Company. European Commission Vice President for Values and Transparency Věra Jourová, who is from the Czech Republic, said there are reasons why many parts in Europe have strong speech code laws and the United States could soon have them too. "Illegal hate speech, which you will have soon also in the U.S., I think that we have a strong reason why we have this in the criminal law," Jourová said. "We need to the platforms to simply work with the language and to identify such cases." Sulzberger said overall disinformation is "the most existential" challenge and whatever problems with reporting stories inaccurately, the New York Times has made corrections. https://twitter.com/i/status/1615371127106441219 - Play Video Now this… https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2023/01/17/taliban-reportedly-buying-blue-checks-on-twitter-n524292 Taliban reportedly buying blue checks on Twitter If you thought things on Twitter were getting a bit weird since Elon Musk took over, buckle up. The strangeness continues this week. There has been quite a debate taking place over Musk’s decision to revamp the “verification” system and sell checkmarks of various colors to anyone who requests one and is willing to fork over a small monthly payment. Plenty of people have been taking advantage of that offer, gaining some amplification of their tweets and other user options not available to the hoi polloi. So perhaps we shouldn’t have been all that surprised to learn that high-ranking officials from the Taliban have gotten in on the action, but it still certainly sounds disturbing at first glance. (BBC) The Taliban have started using Twitter’s paid-for verification feature, meaning some now have blue ticks on their accounts. Previously, the blue tick indicated “active, notable, and authentic accounts of public interest” verified by Twitter, and could not be purchased. But now, users can buy them through the new Twitter Blue service. At least two Taliban officials and four prominent supporters in Afghanistan are currently using the checkmarks. One of the terrorist officials who now has a blue check is Hedayatullah Hedayat, the head of the Taliban’s department for “access to information.” He is definitely on Twitter with more than 180,000 followers and he tweets regularly. But I don’t see a checkmark of any color by his name. Gravity Jack Conference: It’s Less than two weeks to go for the Christians In Web3 Summit 2023! This is definitely going to be a historic gathering with KGEB TV, Patmos, Kingdom Warriors, Public SQ, Christian Vision, Heaven's Entrepreneurs, and 30+ more organizations represented at the event. CrossPolitic is one of them by the way… The event is hosted by Forum12 in partnership with Oral Roberts University, and they’re bringing together top leaders in Web3, AR/VR, Metaverses, Ministry, Tech, and Business space to further the Kingdom and unite as many Christians together to build solutions and not live in fear with that's happening in the world! With experiences like, networking, musical performances, roundtable discussions, panels, pitch night, and workshops, you won't want to miss this opportunity to connect with other Christians in Web3 and learn about the latest technologies being used to share the Gospel and empower believers. The event will take place both in-person at Oral Roberts University in Tulsa, OK and online through Gather.Town & streaming experiences.Visit forum12.com/web3-summit/ for more information! That’s forum12.com/web3-summit Over to China… https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/chinas-first-population-drop-in-six-decades-sounds-alarm-on-demographic-crisis China’s population fell last year for the first time in six decades, a historic turn that is expected to mark the start of a long period of decline in its citizen numbers with profound implications for its economy and the world. The country’s National Bureau of Statistics reported a drop of roughly 850,000 people for a population of 1.41175 billion in 2022, marking the first decline since 1961, the last year of China’s Great Famine. That possibly makes India the world’s most populous nation. U.N. experts predicted last year India would have a population of 1.412 billion in 2022 though they did not expect the South Asian nation to overtake China until this year. India, however, only collects population figures every 10 years and its latest census, originally scheduled for 2021, has been delayed due to the pandemic. Long-term, U.N. experts see China’s population shrinking by 109 million by 2050, more than triple the decline of their previous forecast in 2019. That’s caused domestic demographers to lament that China will get old before it gets rich, slowing the economy as revenues drop and government debt increases due to soaring health and welfare costs. the country’s shrinking labor force and downturn in manufacturing heft would further exacerbate high prices and high inflation in the United States and Europe. China’s birth rate last year was just 6.77 births per 1,000 people, down from a rate of 7.52 births in 2021 and marking the lowest birth rate on record. The number of Chinese women of childbearing age, which the government defines as aged 25 to 35, fell by about 4 million, Kang said. The death rate, the highest since 1974 during the Cultural Revolution, was 7.37 deaths per 1,000 people, which compares with a rate of 7.18 deaths in 2021. Much of the demographic downturn is the result of China’s one-child policy imposed between 1980 and 2015 as well as sky-high education costs that have put many Chinese off having more than one child or even having any at all. The one-child policy and a traditional preference for boys have also created a deep gender imbalance. The latest data shows China with around 722 million males compared to 690 million females. The imbalance, which is more pronounced in rural areas, has led to fewer families being formed in recent years.

Retail Gets Real
294. Retail predictions for 2023 with NRF's Susan Reda

Retail Gets Real

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 17, 2023 27:51


From small concept stores to the metaverse and Web3, retail is all about change and adaptation. On today's show, Susan Reda, NRF's VP of education strategy digs into the insights and retail trends for 2023 and explains why drones, robotics and Generation Alpha are shaping the future of retail. Learn more at retailgetsreal.com.

RETHINK RETAIL
How to Stay Retail Relevant in 2023 | Brian McGlynn, GM of Commerce at Coveo

RETHINK RETAIL

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 11, 2023 26:49


Retailers are feeling the weight of competition now more than ever. Combine that with tight margins, continued supply chain, inflation and labor challenges, and it becomes abundantly clear that brands and retailers are in a race to remain relevant. But what does relevancy actually mean to today's consumers, and does the idea of relevancy vary depending on who you ask and what they're buying? And what about where they're buying from? To dive into these questions and more, I spoke with Brian McGlynn, general manager of commerce at Coveo, who came armed with the answers I was seeking. For listeners who don't already know about Coveo, it's an AI-powered software-as-a-service search engine that recently announced the launch of its Merchandising Hub, a new product developed as a result of the company's acquisition of Qubit, a leader in AI powered merchandising. They're doing some really cool stuff in the omni space so be sure to check them out and say hello at Booth 209 if you are attending NRF 2023 - you might even get a chance to try out one of their Maple Manhattans (I know I will be). About the guest: Having spent more than 20 years in the high-tech industry, Brian McGlynn's experience spans start-ups and Fortune 100 companies, including HP and IBM. He's held roles in sales, consulting, and general management. More recently as General Manager of Intershop's North American business, Brian spearheaded the company's growth into new markets with B2C and B2B commerce offerings. In his current role at Coveo, Brian brings a solid e-commerce expertise with a focus on search, content management, and customer analytics. Brian holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Telecommunications Engineering from the Rochester Institute of Technology and an MBA from Concordia University. Outside of work, Brian's voice can be heard on radio stations across New York State. Hosted and produced by Gabriella Bock, Head of Content & Production at RETHINK Retail. If you enjoyed this episode, show your support by leaving us a rating and review on Apple and Spotify.

Acerto de Contas
Economia RS, polêmica sobre demissões, marca própria de farmácia, feira de varejo e mais, no Acerto de Contas

Acerto de Contas

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 8, 2023 47:24


Na pauta do programa Acerto de Contas, da Rádio Gaúcha: Apresentação: Giane Guerra - Os planos do novo secretário de Desenvolvimento Econômico no RS - Afinal, o que está em jogo no julgamento do STF sobre demissão sem justa causa - Como funciona a aposta de uma das maiores redes de farmácias em produtos de marca própria - O que esperar da NRF, feira de varejo realizada há 113 anos em Nova York Produção: Daniel Giussani e Guilherme Gonçalves Edição de áudio: Douglas Webber Patrocínio: Shopping Total, Sindilojas Porto Alegre e Ecosul Energia Solar

Rádio Gaúcha
Acerto de Contas - 08/01/2023

Rádio Gaúcha

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 8, 2023 47:24


Na pauta do programa Acerto de Contas, da Rádio Gaúcha: Apresentação: Giane Guerra - Os planos do novo secretário de Desenvolvimento Econômico no RS - Afinal, o que está em jogo no julgamento do STF sobre demissão sem justa causa - Como funciona a aposta de uma das maiores redes de farmácias em produtos de marca própria - O que esperar da NRF, feira de varejo realizada há 113 anos em Nova York Produção: Daniel Giussani e Guilherme Gonçalves Edição de áudio: Douglas Webber Patrocínio: Shopping Total, Sindilojas Porto Alegre e Ecosul Energia Solar

The Jason & Scot Show - E-Commerce And Retail News
EP300 - GoodwillFinds CEO Matt Kaness

The Jason & Scot Show - E-Commerce And Retail News

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 6, 2023 65:33 Very Popular


EP300 - GoodwillFinds CEO Matt Kaness In this interview, we cover the sale of ModCloth to Walmart, Matts's subsequent work at Lucky Brand and Afterpay, and his new role as CEO at Goodwillfinds. Goodwillfinds.com is an e-commerce site, which sells previously owned merchandise, which has been donated to Goodwill. We cover many of the tactical challenges (onboarding SKUs, product content, fulfillment, and curation), as well as the opportunities of this new "CircularCommerce" space. We also get some of Matt's predictions about what's coming next in digital commerce. Episode 300 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Wednesday January 4th, 2023. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Episode 300 is an interview with Matt Kaness, CEO of Goodwillfinds.com. Matt was formerly on episode 79, when he was CEO of Modcloth, which later sold to Walmart. Transcript Jason: [0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is the much-anticipated episode number 300 being recorded on Wednesday January 4th, 20:23 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:41] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason and Scot show listeners Jason not only is this the first show of 20:23 it's a big milestone for us with episode what better way to celebrate than having one of our oldest friends for both you and I personally but also to the show back for an update Matt kaness he was last on the show back in episode 79 I think many listeners will remember that one and certainly your mom who's one of our biggest fans and back then he was CEO of ModCloth, a lot has changed since then so we're looking forward to getting an update some of the highlights Matt help sell ModCloth to Walmart he was exact chair and interim CEO at Lucky Brand he's on several boards yeah I've been advisory to several companies and since September of 2022 he has been CEO of goodwillfinds.com Matt welcome back to the show. Matt: [1:35] Great to be here guys thanks for having me. Jason: [1:38] Oh my gosh Matt we are really excited to catch up it seems like if you factor in the pandemic your last episode was about 15 years ago if I'm and so happy I'm happy to report we've added a bunch of listeners since then so before we jump into it can you kind of remind the listeners about your background and how you got in e-commerce. Matt: [2:02] Yeah have you too I like to think about my career or having two careers to date the first one was, very foundational for what I'm doing now but very quantitative, process-oriented mechanical engineering patent law Manufacturing, Ops Consulting things that had nothing to do with retail or fashion or e-commerce and then I. [2:32] Fell into the category when I was a full-time consultant at Burton Snowboards about 16 17 years ago, and fell in love with lifestyle Brands and have, try to stay in that lane for the majority of that time period since, from Burton Snowboards I went onto Urban Outfitters was there for close to eight years up sensibly and I had a growth roll my last title there was Chief strategy officer and then from there I went to ModCloth, where I was the CEO for three years and was running the company when we sold it to Walmart I will say that, I've been in hindsight found myself attracted to these amazing consumer lifestyle brands, that are experiencing inflection points either in their business or in the industry when I was at Burton snowboarding was really for the first time finding a mass audience crossing over into, the Olympics the next games and, when I was at Urban it was the rise of Web 2.0 and I got to ride that wave my entire time there and really, I'll be on the Forefront of pioneering you know what everybody know of calls omni-channel. [3:59] ModCloth the founder of their Susan Koger was one of the pioneers of inclusive fashion and so I felt personally accountable to try to scale that and I think we, if once the industry specifically plus size women's fashion and you know today you look around and it's become pretty normative, for Brands to design into extra extra small to 4X and I'm really proud of the work we did at ModCloth being on the front end of that and then. I do some Consulting work at after pay where buy now pay later was really just becoming a thing, we're younger consumers were focused more on debit versus credit products so with really fortunate to get connected with that team and enjoyed, partnering with them and being an advisor and then you know what I'm doing now at Goodwill where secondhand is really having a moment, in the culture and getting a chance to come in and lead a ground-up startup for the Goodwill Network and helping them to. It's a digitized so to speak and you bring this new Marketplace into the world, it's just for me it's like the next chapter in that really fortunate career second career that I've had. Jason: [5:23] Very cool and I know some of those roles were Bay Area based but you are a Philly guy correct. Matt: [5:29] Philly guy born and raised I'm probably on the short list of people who have moved back to Philly twice. I was in Boston the first time when my wife became. Preggers with our oldest and we wanted to be closer to family and then the second time was when we were in the Bay Area after I left Walmart, we had a break in the action and our oldest was about to start high school and we decide we want to be back here. For the high school years but we've lived all around and I'd obviously travel a lot for work so I have an affinity for the bay area as well as some other places around the country but but Phillies the hometown. Jason: [6:14] Yeah but I'm assuming it's Philly sports teams most importantly. Matt: [6:18] I have been an eagle season ticket holders 2000 yes. Jason: [6:23] Awesome and for people that don't know Philadelphia and Pennsylvania as a whole is a is is a weird e-commerce concentration Point like there's a lot of e-commerce kind of was born or gravitated in the area so I think of like Mark Rubin and Dick's Sporting Good and in Pittsburgh and urban obviously was a huge player there was Urban your first like hardcore e-commerce experience or were you doing a lot of e-commerce at Burton. Matt: [6:56] I was not at Burton Urban is really where I started to cut my teeth on e-commerce. Direct to Consumer more than e-commerce it was really about this when I got there this billion dollar Consolidated Enterprise across there are three main brands, Urban Outfitters anthropology and Free People and the business had started as a catalog, division of what was you know let's call it 95 percent of the sales came through their store Channel. For retail versus direct to Consumer and so when I got there or there was a there was a. [7:43] 100 million Consolidated direct-to-consumer business which was split between catalog and e-commerce, but it was nascent it was not a strategic focus and then you know the founder of their dick ain't really had. This put a natural understanding of consumer behavior and where the industry was going and he had a vision for how to scale the business multi-channel and so we were all, trying to make that that future reality every day for the eight years I was there and we had a lot of success going back to your point about Pennsylvania and Philly first round capital, one of their there I believe their original headquarters and then one of their major offices, is in Philly and so I think I think a lot of it stems from their presence as well not just decaying and Reuben and some others, but also Philly from a talent perspective is kind of like a six suburb or borough of New York, where you get a lot of folks in New York and then they realize that. It's just the standard of living the cost of living is so much better in Philadelphia and so you get a lot of transplants to come down to Philly as well working in e-commerce. Jason: [9:11] Yeah and I want to say I met you I think we all met on the shop dot-org board when you were at Urban later in your your tenure Urban and some of my Fondest Memories another good friend of the show Billy met who at the time was at Abercrombie is the two of you like heckling each other about like your two brands. Matt: [9:34] Yeah like that was that was really fun for me because you know Urban. Um was pretty insular you meaning that we were so obsessively focused on the customer, and on the fashion trends and on what we were doing internally, that we never really thought about competition so we didn't spend a ton of time looking around the industry, so for me that was that was kind of a an introduction to what else was happening across the industry and then Billy occasionally would call me and say. Hey you guys make me look bad because you just had another great quarter ecomp rowing and you know your your results are now The Benchmark that I have to deliver against. But you know what I what I found in that shop or Community which is now part of NRF, is that it was not very competitive it was very collaborative I couldn't believe. [10:46] How much everybody support each other and wanted to share strategies and ideas and Etc and I think that's one of the things that really drew me into this career path on the digital Commerce side, versus pursuing merchandising or. We're kind of the brick-and-mortar offline space is it's just how, how great that the digital Community has been in the US that I've experienced so that's one of the one of the things that I try to do now is to make sure that. Making myself available I'm kind of giving back and spending time with folks and helping them along and sharing ideas because I know that you guys and others certainly do that for me way back in the day. Jason: [11:32] Yeah I feel like we all have done that for each other and I feel like we've all obviously benefited greatly from that community, and so then you leave the Eagles behind and you go join what at the time was a Founder led a venture back pure-d to see is that, a fair characterization for Vermont cough if when you. Matt: [11:58] Yes my father my father is a pure pointy Taylor yeah. Like 10,000 uniques on the site all third party. The company was vertically integrated so homegrown Ruby on Rails codebase e-commerce. Order management system warehouse management system all the way down to the call center and the warehouse it was, um pretty pioneering on the web services side as far as. [12:35] Look it was an early social commerce player as far as leveraging Pinterest and things that you could do with. Facebook and some of the other platforms Tumblr to engage customers and get them to participate in the shopping experience we were one of the first to integrate, ugc from customers into the shopping experience into the carousels on the website, um we had personalization that was driven by customer reviews that were captured in the website versus outsourced to a bizarre Voice or the like so it was the technology is pretty pioneering, the business was was very underdeveloped and the brand I felt was. Had a lot of opportunity to broaden its appeal when I got there so it was a little bit of a turnaround, financially what I'm joined which having now done this a few times there's always a reason they bring in an outside CEO. Jason: [13:44] It's not because things are just going awesome and they just want to share the awesomeness. Matt: [13:47] Yeah I can't I can't think of a single time that CEO in a business that's humming and doing great he says you know what let's bring in somebody else to do this so I. Jason: [13:57] I think Andy jassy is saying that about Amazon right now by the way. Matt: [14:02] Yeah yeah yeah what I mean there's there's a there's a lot of chatter about looking at. It was on the Facebook and Tesla and what those Founders were doing the last couple years selling stock so I think they kind of all knew what was about to happen. But you know just quickly on ModCloth I'll say that you know we were able to quickly come in. [14:32] Turn around the business financially but more importantly we pivoted it to what then was called a DM BB model, a digitally native vertical brand model which was just meant that the vertical piece that you were procuring designing selling your own product or exclusive product versus, third party which you know in the world of Amazon it's really hard to scale a business that you know what you're selling you can find on Amazon or other larger marketplaces, so we build out a design studio and sourcing operation weary platform the entire Tech stack we developed, a showroom concept similar to what we're being bonobos had developed and tested that and rolled that out and had a really aggressive growth plan against that we went out to raise money and her wound up, getting an offer from the team at jet.com that 6-month previous had, I've been sold to Walmart and they came in and made an offer and the board accepted it and so we sold it. And and I stayed on at Walmart for a year and oversaw our integration into that that ecosystem. Scot: [15:51] Cool the that was kind of a chain reaction right where you guys several companies they Acquired and did you play a role in kind of that roll up. Matt: [16:01] We were like the third or fourth of six or seven Acquisitions and they did within a year and a half two year period. And then as part of my year there I did get involved in some of their business development MMA, conversations and and I did spend a little bit of time helping them, on one of the further Acquisitions but you know they what I learned about Walmart when I was there is. They have such a strong culture they have a real clear view of who their customer is and why they're serving them and you know I would tell you that. The Acquisitions that spray that they went on those two years was really a catalyst for. Something that W Mellon said at a meeting that I attended where he talked about convenience. [17:03] Being valued as much as low-cost in the kind of the online or multi-channel retail environment versus pre-internet, and so they had to find a catalyst under Mark Lori to accelerate their the cultural change, to understand how customers writ large were valuing convenience as much as low-cost when their Heritage had been, Yoda Point technology to make improvements in supply chain and sourcing and Merchandising so that they could always win on price now they had a win on price and convenience, and so though the individual Acquisitions You could argue whether there was an Roi on them or not against the purchase price. I would say that. Internally it was a massive success in creating that kind of cultural change that Doug. Mandated from. Mark and and then you know I was only there a year and I left but just watching what progressed and if you look at the moldable on Walmart stock I think it's hard to argue that it wasn't a success. Scot: [18:18] Yes tricky with Acquisitions you can't just look at the you know the interior ModCloth business you have to look at the whole halo effect and the stock price yeah there's a multi-faceted way to look at these things that's kind of complicated. Matt: [18:32] Yeah I think any business that they could grow if you could grow organically in definitely I think most businesses would do that there's a reason why companies you know use MMA to your point. Scot: [18:46] Did some point I think I saw a ModCloth working to the stores where you there for that. Matt: [18:53] No no that I left before any of those kind of process integration initiatives occurred. Scot: [19:03] Yeah and then didn't they do they sell it back out do they spin it. Matt: [19:08] Yeah they sold it back out there were some after I left there were some further leadership changes that occurred and and they wound up the best thing it and selling it to I want to say it was a fermented New York. Scot: [19:23] Like a private Equity Firm or another. Matt: [19:24] Yeah I think so yeah. Scot: [19:28] Did you didn't want to jump in there and take it over again usually they call the previous CEO I bet there's an 80% chance you got a call. Matt: [19:37] No comment. Scot: [19:41] All right we found something you don't want to talk about good it's part of my goal on this show is to see if we can we can find that you have any family safe Mark Lori stories I've spent a fair amount of time with him he's a he's a pretty wacky dude. Matt: [19:56] I mean I didn't spend that much time working for him but I mean man like talk about somebody who just has total belief in himself and the team and what's possible, and so much energy for. For Commerce for startups for Innovation so I mean it's it was contagious working for him, um working for his team's I wanted to takeaways I had for my time at Walmart and my time working with. [20:32] With Mark and his jet team is I just didn't have that kind of passion for the mass-market the way that, you had to have to be successful working at a Walmart or working at a jet before the acquisition, yeah I love the specialty space I love you know the Branded premium space I love, Yoda kind of the Middle Market where it's not based on price and it's not luxury it's somewhere in between. I just find that that it's super creative there's lots of opportunities for differentiation. There's always new things that you get to learn but you know Walmart I got there was a camera don't quote me on the exact number but. [21:27] Like there was a conversation about like how many millions of American flags are they going to sell between Memorial Day and and. And Fourth of July. [21:38] On one of their promos and I was just like I couldn't even fathom the scale of having to move that many units and so, yep so for me it was kind of a validation of the lane that I've been in and and enjoyed being in and so when I left. Eventually wind up going to Lucky that was kind of part of the calculus on my part was to get back into the into that that category that Wayne of specialty. Scot: [22:07] My one of my first Mark Laurie experiences I was at Jet and he was telling us how the Company motto was billions or body bags and I was like that's kind of a weird way to motivate, and then I talked to several employees I was like how do you like it here and there like billions of body bags that like they were just like it was a mantra like you know that they were just so focused on it was either going to be 0 or this huge outcome and sure enough it was billions. Matt: [22:31] Yeah there's there's definitely I mean I think think he was a successful High School athlete so there's definitely a lot of rah-rah with with him in the team it's that's not my personality I. ModCloth one of the investors accused me of being two column in the boardroom. They said you know Matt if you had slammed on the table a little bit more you know and I'm sitting there like like. That's the that never crossed my mind trying to make an argument to do something required me slamming my hand on the table. Scot: [23:14] A tantrum yeah. Matt: [23:15] My voice yeah but maybe that's Versa tween you know a founder and yeah an operator. Jason: [23:23] Scot was definitely a table Slammer. Matt: [23:25] I don't believe you. Scot: [23:26] Like man I have an engineering background and they drummed that out of us in those four years. Matt: [23:33] Totally yeah I think you're right I think the scientific method does not allow for that that level of emotion that come into into the argument. Jason: [23:44] Yeah but I will say a lot of mechanical things can be fixed by hitting them with a hammer I will, the so I'm super grateful that you guys didn't throw Mark Glory under the table because I at the moment have to totally pandor to him because his new business he has Starbucks trucks that will drive to your house and deliver coffee to your house, so I like I feel like I need to stay in his good graces, but so so the sale happens you transition out of ModCloth you've you've got kids in college and or in school and no source of free clothing so I'm guessing that's what drove the, you're interesting lucky brands. Matt: [24:28] Yeah well I got to say. When I worked at Urban my wife definitely took advantage of the anthropology discount. [24:43] And I act funny funny and true story, when I was considering the opportunity at ModCloth I was having a couple other conversations in the in the fashion space. And I showed my daughter who at the time was probably about seven or eight I showed her the apps for the shopping apps for, the three businesses that I was talking to and I won't say who but there was one in particular based in La that she was like Dad no way she was like you cannot work selling that fashion. But she approved of ModCloth and so so I got her endorsement so yeah when I went to Lucky it's really I wasn't necessarily looking. You're back into fashion as much as I really thought that there was this route there's a unique opportunity with lucky they were. Over a billion in gmv which is to say the direct to Consumer wholesale and the value of their licensing business in the market was over a billion dollars. So brand revenues and net revenue is like call it 650 million and it was independent. [26:08] And there were not a lot of businesses at that scale. In the u.s. that still were independent versus part of a conglomerate. [26:21] And we're had already gone public and so I had been friendly with one of the partners at Wintergreen. Who called me about the opportunity and after spending some time with them talking about it I said. You really need somebody in LA full time in the arts district where they were headquartered and I'm not moving to LA and moving actually back east and they said. Hey would you come in and manage the company to get us through holiday while we won for somebody. And also give us a strategy like a like a financial model a business case three-year strategy. And so that's how I initially got involved there was more as like a board advisor interim manager and then. By January of twenty I'd really seen this amazing Lane. For an older Millennial younger Gen-X. That we could reposition Lucky Brand to be a cause marketer the company did a tremendous amount of good work in Downtown LA taking. Old Denim and. [27:50] Giving it. Nonprofits that work with the homeless population there for clothing to for installation. And then other other efforts to help that population, and so I felt like we could reposition lucky to not mean like going to the casino getting lucky but meaning gratitude. Like I feel lucky I made it I have the ability to spend a hundred dollars in a pair of jeans and I want to support. [28:27] This this amazing company that does all this good work and so. That I had this vision for how you could reposition the brand the business was running like it was 2005 as far as. Go to market so there was a lot of heavy lifting that had to be done around digital transformation around merchandising around. Rationalizing the stores there was way too much discount so there's a lot of work to do, but I got really excited about the opportunity and wound up agreeing to stay on as exact chair in January 2020. And part of my remit would have been to hire a CEO and partner with that individual and I had to kill people in my network that I thought would be great for it who be willing to move to LA. But two months later the covid walk down start. And then it turned into something you know completely different than we were just trying to survive we lost ninety percent of our revenue and that April. And we wound up. [29:43] Making it through to July August that summer but at that point yeah the damage had been done and the private Equity Firm decided to. Sell it to a party that had been interested in the business for a number of years which was authentic Brands group out of New York so I stayed on to oversee that process and then once the deal is done I. Said that was a lot of work I'm exhausted and wound up turning down the opportunity to stay on with a b g and left but, I got to say I'm really grateful thankful for the team that I had there because they were amazing, to work with during such a difficult period that that Q2. And early summer of 2020 it was it was really really challenging to be in the market and I learned a lot about myself as a leader from it. Jason: [30:46] Oh my gosh I I am sure you did I'm laughing though because you think about all the work involved there and so you decided to do something easier in your next gig like oh I don't know like starting from scratch business in the middle of a really old non-profit. Matt: [31:08] Well I gotta say you know after after the lucky experience. Um I really felt drained I didn't have. The passion for retail for e-commerce digital for. Brands for fashion like I had for the previous you know well 15 years and. I was fortunate that I have the ability to do this but I basically gave myself 2021 off. I've been sitting on a few boards I did some Consulting work I had been Angel Investing for a few years so I had a number of startup Founders and CEOs that I was mentoring and Advising, and I just said to myself I really need to get re-inspired I need to like, get back out in the market broadly see what's happening see where the Innovation is occurring and and, get excited but also get lucky because a lot of these things from a career perspective is based on timing I was really fortunate that. [32:27] I went to Urban when I did I was really fortunate to be part of, ModCloth the journey during the years that was there the year that I was at Walmart was a really critical year in the Amazon the Walmart Battle. Um amazing timing too. Be available to do Consulting work with the after pay the exact summer that the founder moved from Australia to San Francisco. So you know I'm acutely aware that you can't control timing and, and yet the kind of put yourself out there so that was my plan last year and in doing so what I realized was I'm like I get the most energy and I do my best work when, back in the phase of a company where it's. [33:22] Focused on growth and Innovation and so no more turnarounds the end of Lucky business was a turnaround. ModCloth was a pseudo turn around, so I just said you know I want to get back to you know that stage where it's really about solving for customer needs and Market positioning and Prague service Innovation and deploying technology, and then a couple that with also wanted to get in a part of retail where I can learn. And you know secondhand what's happening right now the this whole cultural phenomenon around thrifting, and you're the pioneering work of a thread up and a real real Poshmark deep op-ed see ya the last decade, that was the that was the heavy lifting you know those Founders you know basically creating the category, but now there's a critical mass now there's a consumer acceptance so I don't see it as it as a, as hard as maybe it looks like from the outside it's I think it's the timing is great for the Goodwill Network to Rally around this new platform for us. As a separate entity to stand up this new company to launch this new Marketplace. [34:48] There's definitely engineering challenges to figuring out how do you successfully profitably scale. Um second-hand and vintage when you know every item is unique and we have a distributed model where our sellers are. Various. Goodwill members across the u.s. so we're not centralized so there's definitely some some challenges but to me that's part of the fun that's part of the learning. Jason: [35:18] I can imagine I want to take just half a step backwards to make sure the listeners are tracking with exactly what you're doing now because I think it's super interesting so, formal title is CEO of goodwillfinds and goodwillfinds is a new offering from Goodwill that is selling Goodwill Merchant previously owned Goodwill merchandise via a website is that the in my clothes. Matt: [35:44] Yeah yeah so I think it's worth kind of spelling out the context a little bit because it took me a little bit honestly to fully understand it and grasp it. Goodwill has been around for over 100 Years everybody knows Goodwill it's an amazing nonprofit franchise. There is a I call it a holding company I don't know that that's the right. Firm but there is a parent company that owns the Goodwill Master license in Metro DC and they have. License out the brand to I believe the numbers 155, individual territories across the u.s. and each of those territories have, Goodwill organization with their own leadership team their own operations around treasury their own board of directors obviously they vary in. Size and location and specification and you know mix the revenue and all those things but they all share the same Mission and the mission a Goodwill is. [36:57] To enhance lives for the Dignity of work, and it's my older brother was born with a disability and I've watched him go on and off disability a few times in his life and I tell you, that he's his best self when he's working. So when I first got connected with the folks at Goodwill earlier last year it really touched my heart like I really. I wanted this to be successful for them because I know how important their mission is but as I got to learn more about the network. [37:37] Of 155 Goodwill's and more about the opportunity and there are six founding. Good we'll see EOS that came together to organize this new separate entity called goodwillfinds where a virtual Delaware company. And those six are the ones that are the board that I report to and they've been working on this for years they were, ready to watch this last year and decided that they needed to hire a CEO, to come in build a team set up the company oversee the launch so I joined pre-revenue and we're now in our fourth month of selling, the consumer response has been. Unbelievable sales are more than doubling month-over-month it's it's really. A unique opportunity to build something that is not only. [38:39] In a part of retail that is innovating and growing and scaling rapidly but it's also doing it for this amazing Mission and you know really trying to redefine what does. Nonprofit in the circular economy look like to deliver social impact at scale so I feel like that's the Mandate that I signed up for and the team that I'm building. And the business model that we're designing right now to go with the marketplace are the is the execution of that but the bigger Vision here is to create this platform that not only. [39:24] Overtime all 155 Goodwill members will have access to be on as sellers but that. For the first time we'll have decentralized marketing funnel brands. Strategy content messaging 1p data and then. [39:48] But technical roadmap that were able to deploy that will integrate with the store operations and the back of house operations that will allow for scared investments in technology that all the good wolf can take advantage of. On the consumer side I think all the players and secondhand have the same goal which is to make the. [40:10] The option to buy second-hand versus new so compelling and so convenient and so exciting and cool. That more and more consumption dollars go towards second hand and move away from New and by, doing that, it has this incredibly measurable impact on the environment in creating sustainable. Impact and then in our case you add to it. The fact that every net dollar that we collect from our sales go back to the location where the Goodwill was the item was donated to fund the Goodwill programs I mean it's I feel like we're pioneering, this new this new kind of business model for circularity and so all that to me is like super compelling super interesting, and I'm really fortunate that this opportunity found me. Scot: [41:19] Cool hearing you talk about it I can tell you like to build stuff the channel visor we had a lot of customers that were kind of in this General space the challenge with this use Consignment World Is You Gotta you know I'm sure these Goodwills are getting, they're only going to sell online a fraction of what comes in so you got to figure out what what things do you want to sell in the store versus online you gotta create digital assets which are the descriptions and the pictures and then you gotta you know imagine you're not going to send them to a central location so then you've got to create a shipping method that works down at the store level how are you guys solving all those problems at scale. Matt: [42:00] Yeah well I'll tell you a couple of things and you're exactly right there's a ton of operational challenges we have a couple things going for us one. These Goodwills already have the physical infrastructure they already have, donation centers they already have Micro warehouses that are already selling online as a three-piece seller through Amazon and eBay and some other Regional marketplaces, so they have a lot of these physical operations setup, so we're leveraging that and we're not having to deploy Capital to do it. That's 12 there's a there's a maturity in the technology vendor Market you'd be surprised at how many. Providers are in the space to automate. We have a partner that we work with that leverages Google Lens technology and Leverage is the Einstein a I was Salesforce that allows us to, take a lot of the heavy lifting out of item creation we have vendors that we work with that. [43:15] Take images of items three-dimensional scans that send it to and Outsource in India where descriptions are being written for these items you know so there's, and I'm learning this right but you'd be shocked at how much software deployment automation deployment already exists. [43:38] So we're managing that to deploy in a way that integrates into these existing operations at and. The other thing that we have an advantage of is because we are nonprofit. [43:53] We're selling primarily me exclusively right now but overtime will be primarily selling donated items which have. Is this not a zero cost of goods but it's a near zero cost of goods. So we have room in the margin line to play with value-added services on each item, if we feel like there's a lift that we can justify with that you know with respect to photography with respect to. Metadata on each of the items with respect to Howard thinking about tagging, there's a lot there's a lot of players out there that we're evaluating right now and we watched with. [44:42] Over 100,000 unique items back in the first week of October. Mid-December we were at nearly 200,000 items. And our roadmap is to have a million unique items in our active. Catalog by October of this year so this entire endeavor. Has been from the start designed for scale. So we feel like that's giving us an advantage because we're able to do some things that, other startups that are venture-backed that are having to start from scratch with a lot of that infrastructure that have a cost of sourcing and and Supply acquisition that we don't, it would be financially prohibitive for them to make some of the Investments that we're making right now. Scot: [45:43] Yeah it's interesting to hear you say you're using some of the AI Jason's not a believer in AI but I'm a big proponent. Jason: [45:50] Haha I haven't said a word on this whole podcast I've just been using my AI Avatar. Scot: [45:57] Ugh. Matt: [45:58] For the record this isn't Matt talking this is Matt's chat TPT talking. Jason: [46:04] Yeah we tested both in the shed she'd Beatty was much more Salient so we went with that. [46:17] Yeah so it's interesting to me mad because, you mentioned a lot of the early Pioneers in our e-commerce and by the way just from buzzword Bingo like are you re Commerce person or you like do you have a favorite label for what you're doing now. Matt: [46:34] Yeah I'm. I'm back in the the interview circuit right now trying to get the word out about what we're doing and promoting the Goodwill Mission so I'm still trying some phrases on I mean yeah RI Commerce is definitely. [46:50] What. The buzzword but I think what we're doing at goodwillfinds and and in partnership with the Goodwill network is really about circularity you know in my mind's eye. Getting a Marketplace standing up a new Marketplace from the zero. You know it's the old Beezus flywheel the back of the napkin that I think about every day and in my version of it their supply demand admission and without the mission we don't get supply. And the better job we do partnering with our members sellers in acquiring the right Supply and and listing it. In a high-quality way, you know then that allows us to be able to meet demand in the market which the proceeds from those sales go right back to the Goodwill where we got the donation and there's the kind of the flywheels complete, and one of the stories around that and this is what we have to do a better job. [47:52] This year versus last year's to get these stories these amazing stories about the Goodwill Network out into the world, the more successful we are Google finds meaning the more that we're able to sell and scale demand. The more people each of the Goodwill sellers have to hire in their e-commerce operations. Because they're doing the listings they're doing the pick pack and ship on the on the outbound but those jobs are higher skill and they and they pay better. And so it actually accelerates the local mission. [48:27] The more successful we are because they have to hire more people and bring more people and train them into these higher value jobs that then they go get placed somewhere else they can go work within. The digital economy you know the digital retail industry and so we really I really think about what we're doing as pioneering circularity. We also are talking to some retailers and Brands you want to partner with us on they're both on the demand and supply side and part of it is because we're a nonprofit that there's a tax, right up Advantage for them but it's there's also this, PSG component to the large corporates that they have to think about especially in, in apparel where they had to think about you know what is their end to end environmental impact and. [49:27] It's it's really I can't believe the timing of this but it's really a moment right now not just with consumers but in the industry and so that's another aspect of circularity where you have. Yeah it's not Nike so but I'll just use them as an example to speak of Austria of Lee imagine Nike telling their full price customers. That they can buy second-hand Nike at goodwillfinds.com. Or imagine a Chanel it's not Chanel so I'll just use them electrically but imagine them. [50:04] Wanting to use us as their authentication partner so that when you find second-hand should now at goodwillfinds.com versus a real real or somewhere else, you can you can you know that you have this objective third-party authenticator that you can partner with to control, the the brand experience in the second hand market so it's, I'm really excited about the possibilities and and we have a really big vision for what we're doing I don't I think we Commerce to me feels, like a term that soap a little bit Limited. Jason: [50:41] Totally fair so maybe circular Commerce its, it's interesting to me though like so we've had a bunch of those Founders from the circular Commerce. Brands on and like their fundamental problem is not your fundamental like their biggest problem is sourcing, the goods by getting people to send them stuff and then when they curate it they're mostly interested in, luxury designer so they end up with a relatively poor yield and they don't have. [51:13] Any monetization or you know frankly like a ecologically redeeming way to deal with, all the goods they get that aren't they don't meet their criteria so it's like you you seem like they're like through the Goodwill Network you've got all these stores to put Goods in you've got a bunch of you do have luxury consumers that are searching for vintage and value but you also have more pure value consumers you it just seems like it's a really interesting fit because you saw some of the, problems that are endemic to the re Commerce guys you've got the first gen, Val you guys like the you know the fast fashion guys who are you know of course making stuff cheap but it's a psychological disaster and they only sell like half of it and the other half ends up in a landfill and all that and then you've got the, discount guys who I think is the funniest of all I don't know if you follow this but Burlington Coat Factory, right before the pandemic shut down their e-commerce and they shut it down because they fundamentally couldn't solve what you're doing like they couldn't figure out how to cost effectively make, product detail pages for all the super thin inventory that they had and so it just interesting like, because you built this business on top of the Google Network it feels like you got a nice sort of Head Start in the in all three corners of that problem if you will. Matt: [52:36] Yeah Jason so first off I know a lot of the players the founders execs at those other places and, again I want them all to be successful because the more successful the category is it's a tide that will lift all boats and I think we're all being led by the consumer who is voting yes yes yes, I also think that the consumer, um is not just the the deal Seeker the value Seeker but it really is a trend ribbon, style driven younger consumer who if you think about you know the. [53:19] Tick Tock and Instagram and this this viral social world that we live in where you nobody wants to look the same, wearing the same things that shopping vintage and second-hand is actually a way to differentiate yourself and show your, your individual style so it's there's a really interesting marriage there between second hand and kind of social morality, and what's happening there and then there's also a tell you a more affluent customer or aspirational customer who could Shop full price and does Shop full price but they really care about, about the impact in the narrative and they want to talk about the story, where they bought it not just what they bought and so there's it feels like there's this really. [54:15] Great timing of all three customer segments and then the last thing I tell you is compared to the Discounters. Do I have read about some of them struggling, with figuring out e-commerce and I think I've read the rational rationalization was that it's hard to do Discovery online versus in the store. What I would tell you is that what we're doing augments the in-store thrifting experience at goodwillfinds, now if you're shopping Goodwill at your local store. The assortment is very limited it's what just showed up that week or that month as far as donations go but, you can do that because there are certain categories of people like to touch and feel or try on because fit matters or Texture and finish and, and material matter you know how home goods and furniture and the like one of those big bulky items that you know are easier to buy and store but to be able to couple that with. [55:29] Now shopping you know I don't want to say the best but the that e-commerce. Assortment of other Goodwills across the country. We're now you're getting access to donations from New York to LA Seattle to Miami, Chicago to Austin and I mean wow like what a treasure Trove to be able to shop your Goodwill store and go online and get access to all these thrift stores in one place, in our case I think it's a massive value add and. Given the fact that the Goodwill brand has been around for 100 years and already has tens of millions of customers shopping their stores you know our primary focus to start is how do we, how do we complement the in-store shopping experience to those tens of millions of customers to convert them to be multi-channel customers with the brand, and at the same time how do we compete in the market too. [56:38] Solicit this this these other two audiences that I mentioned the style and Trend driven younger consumer that's looking for vintage that's looking for. For differentiated as well as this this aspirational and more affluent customer who loves the loves the purpose loves the mission loves the story of circularity and wants to participate. Scot: [57:03] Cool sounds like your you're fired up and it's going to be exciting to watch the progress we're running up against time but while we have you you've been that this over 15 years the whole e-commerce retail thing what are some of the other Trends you're watching other than this circular kind of recycling element anything anything interesting on your radar for example do you think the digitally native vertical brand thing has played out or is that still got legs any other trends that are interesting to you. Matt: [57:36] Yeah well on DM BB which just a an iteration of DTC. Did you see to me was always a go to market strategy was never a business model. Scot: [57:47] Yeah. Matt: [57:49] The the early players the first movers in that space who did the, you know go to the source and sell an item at the wholesale price versus the retail price because you're cutting out the middleman Zappos is kind of one of the one of the pioneers of that, um That was a momentum thing I've always viewed and again kind of sticking to my knitting here in this specialty premium you know Market space. I've always viewed, yeah the brand equity which is what we're all striving to create and grow and maintain. It gets generated by picking an attractive customer, that you want to obsess about and I don't and attractive I mean somebody that you think is a viable there's enough of them and they're viable to have a long-term relationship with. [58:56] And obsessing about them to the point where you understand their needs better than they and you can create differentiated product and service, where, they fall in love with your Solutions with your customer experience and they want to tell their friends and then you couple that with the right distribution, so that you can find more people like them which allows you to scale in an efficient manner and direct-to-consumer now going back 15 years, was just the new go to market to find more like-minded customers to ones that you already had so urban urban already had amazingly strong brands with a lot of brand equity, so what we did writing the Web 2.0 wave was really just figuring out you know how do we, how do we reach the same or similar customers and give them a better experience a different experience online than what they experience in store, and then Mark what was the opposite I got there and we had no physical experience and so the exercise was how do we take this brand love that exists. [1:00:07] At this website and and translate it into a three-dimensional experience that, the existing customers would love but would allow us to expand our market and introduce the brand and more people so I yeah so I don't I never saw DM BB by itself as a sustainable business model. [1:00:27] As far as other Trends in the market today I when I left Walmart I did a talk. [1:00:37] Where I said I felt like it was an amazing time, to start a brand and I really meant it and I really believe that the market was was so like there's so much sameness in the market that. That there's a huge opportunity for four new brands coming to the market Leverage The technologies that have matured and and really differentiate against the incumbents I tell you sitting here right now after. I feel like consumers. [1:01:12] Have now accepted the fact that their multi-line store is where they shop for everything. The whole idea of this retailers essential and that one's not and those shutdowns for a year plus I think really changed consumer. Perception of where's viable to shop the where it's not and I and so I think the bigger players, have a massive advantage in this market especially this year with inflation continuing going into a recession I think it's I think this year is going to be really hard, for smaller players to differentiate and survive so that's more from a consumer lens. From a technology lens I'm sorry to say Jason but I'm a big believer in AI, and I think it's early days and what I counseled a lot of folks who are earlier in their career is find a mega technology trend, in the market that you can get passionate about learning that you think is early Innings and ride it. [1:02:17] I certainly did that with e-commerce I was. They're early with the that whole Social Mobile Local, moment you know that was existing after the iPhone and Facebook launched, I'm I feel like marketplaces are like halfway up the s-curve I feel like there's still a lot more room to grow and so I'm working on that technology curve right now with goodwillfinds. But I would say that I don't I'm not a Believer it in web 3.0 today it feels like, the.com in the late 90s where it was five years too early, there just weren't enough participants to make it viable I think web 3.0 in whatever form it takes is five years out before becomes something that you could commercially work on. And then you know I'd say I think the subscription in. In a lot of categories is having a lot of success right now which is less about technology and more about, business model but that's that's that's an area as well that I think is worth exploring for a lot of businesses that are trying to figure out ways to monetize Their audience. Jason: [1:03:40] Matt that is awesome, basically we're mostly aligned I'm 100% with you on a I I'm also with you on web 3 / metaverse being too early the one thing I'm gonna just for the record disagree on is I I can't public admit that marketplaces are thing because that'll that'll go to Scott said too much if we admit that. But, it's going to surprise no one mat that has happened again we've used slightly more than our allotted time so we're gonna leave it with those words of wisdom from you as always if listeners found value from this show we sure would love it if you'd jump on iTunes and leave us that five star review but Matt, so awesome to reconnecting and congrats on everything you're doing it's it's fun to watch and and put your point like it's also adding a heck of a lot of value to the world. Matt: [1:04:33] Guys I really appreciate the time always great to reconnect congrats on the pot I'm a huge fan and let's do it again at number five hundred. Scot: [1:04:44] Sounds good Matt if folks want to find you online or you on the on MySpace where do you hang out. Matt: [1:04:52] Yeah have you heard of Tumblr no. Um yeah I would just say if anybody needs to get ahold of me reach out through Linkedin and my contact information is there. Scot: [1:05:06] Sounds good we really appreciate taking time and good luck with the new Venture sounds really exciting. Matt: [1:05:11] Thanks guys. Jason: [1:05:12] And until next time happy commercing.

Retail Gets Real
293. The state of retail heading into 2023 with NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay

Retail Gets Real

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 3, 2023 23:15


NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay talks about the 2022 holiday season, where the retail industry is going in 2023 and what to expect at NRF 2023: Retail's Big Show. Learn more at retailgetsreal.com.

Remarkable Retail
Organized For Growth: Our Season Finale with Satish Malhotra, CEO of The Container Store

Remarkable Retail

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 20, 2022 42:22


We wrap up Season 5 with yet another remarkable leader from a most remarkable retailer. This week our guest is Satish Malhotra, the CEO of The Container Store (TCS), the leading specialty retailer of storage and organization products, custom closets, and in-home services. Satish took the helm of TCS last year after an amazing two decade run at Sephora where he helped drive their retail growth strategy as Chief Retail Officer and Chief Operating Officer of the Americas. We unpack what has TCS' success and momentum over the past 18 months, before delving into their plans to double its business over the next few years via it's 3 Pillars strategy: intensifying its product and service focus, expanding its reach (both digitally and by opening 80-100 new stores), and strengthening multiple capabilities. We also discuss how to overcome the cultural challenges that can impede any transformation effort and get Satish's views on how to navigate the coming choppy waters of a challenging economic outlook.But first we dip into the week in retail news, including dissecting the latest sales report from the US Census Bureau which seems to suggest storm clouds on the horizon. Then we take on the surprise news of Amazon' Deal Days, before a short riff on the importance of the week after Christmas. Then it's a trip to the retail graveyard with news of Sears Hometown's apparent pending demise and a quick take on H&M's recent sales report. We wrap up with Walmart's doubling down on omni-channel fulfillment while Nordstrom Rack struggles to make it work. Catch Steve and Michael at NRF's Big ShowCatch Steve and Michael at the World Retail Congress (more details soon) About SatishA seasoned retail executive with decades of diverse and valuable experience, Satish Malhotra joined The Container Store on February 1, 2021 as Chief Executive Officer and President.For the previous 21 years, Satish held various leadership roles at prestige beauty retailer Sephora Americas, most recently as Chief Retail Officer and Chief Operating Officer.  In this role, Satish was responsible for leading Sephora's retail growth by expanding its in-store services and experiences, developing digitally enabled solutions and by growing its off-mall store locations.Prior to that role, Satish served as Chief Operating Officer and was responsible for Technology, Supply Chain, Store Development, Legal, Strategy and Partnerships, including the Sephora inside JCPenney (SiJCP) business which now operates in over 600 stores. He also spent several years overseeing Sephora's expansion into Canada and Latin America.Before joining Sephora, Satish was a Transaction Services Senior Associate at PwC. He is a Certified Public Accountant (inactive).Throughout his career, Satish has excelled at developing and growing new sales channels, solving complex “back of the house” problems with innovative solutions, and attracting and developing high performing talent. Among his many career highlights: transforming Sephora's IT department to a Center of Excellence within parent company LVMH, launching all of Sephora's digital commerce properties (including website, mobile, social and CRM), strengthening Sephora's supply chain to enable 98% of online orders to be received by consumers within two business days, developing an off-mall store concept which dramatically improved Sephora's accessibility to its consumers, and led the efforts in creating Sephora's purpose of “inspiring fearlessness”.In 2020, he was presented with the Innovation Leadership Award from the World Retail Forum.A graduate of the University of California, Berkeley, Walter A. Haas School of Business with a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration, Satish has also completed the LVMH Inspiring Entrepreneurs Senior Executive Leadership Program.Malhotra currently resides in Flower Mound, Texas, with his wife, two children and their Coton du Tulear. An avid Peloton rider, he clocked well over 11,000 minutes in 2020.About UsSteve Dennis is an advisor, keynote speaker and author on strategic growth and business innovation. You can learn more about Steve on his       website.    The expanded and revised edition of his bestselling book  Remarkable Retail: How To Win & Keep Customers in the Age of Disruption is now available at  Amazon or just about anywhere else books are sold. Steve regularly shares his insights in his role as a      Forbes senior contributor and on       Twitter and       LinkedIn. You can also check out his speaker "sizzle" reel      here.Michael LeBlanc  is the Founder & President of M.E. LeBlanc & Company Inc and a Senior Advisor to Retail Council of Canada as part of his advisory and consulting practice.   He brings 25+ years of brand/retail/marketing & eCommerce leadership experience, and has been on the front lines of retail industry change for his entire career.  Michael is the producer and host of a network of leading podcasts including Canada's top retail industry podcast,       The Voice of Retail, plus  Global E-Commerce Tech Talks  ,      The Food Professor  with Dr. Sylvain Charlebois and now in its second season, Conversations with CommerceNext!  You can learn more about Michael   here  or on     LinkedIn. Be sure and check out Michael's latest venture for fun and influencer riches - Last Request Barbecue,  his YouTube BBQ cooking channel!

TalkLP
Amber & Gus Talk Legislation with NRF Experts

TalkLP

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 14, 2022 45:46


TalkLP host Amber Bradley teams up with industry veteran and owner of the D&D Daily Gus Downing to talk legislative updates with NRF experts Jon Gold, Vice President of Supply Chain & Customs Policy, Jason Straczewski, Vice President of Government Relations & Public Affairs and David Johnston, Vice President of Asset Protection & Retail Operations.  Amber and Gus cover what retailers need to know about the INFORM Act, where it stands today and how they can help get it over the goal line! For more information on how to take action, retailers should visit NRF's website here. To learn more about HSI's Operation Boiling point, listen to Amber's interview with HSI's Deputy Assistant Director Raul Aguilar here. For breaking news headlines and mobile access to the D&D, download the TalkLPnews APP today - it's free and no registration is required! Subscribe to the D&D Daily here.

Remarkable Retail
An Insider's View of Retail Venture Capital with XRC Labs' Al Sambar

Remarkable Retail

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 13, 2022 43:07


With the penultimate episode of Season 5 we pause briefly to celebrate reaching our 100th episode milestone, before taking an insider's view of the dynamic world of retail tech and consumer investing with Al Sambar, a deeply experienced industry executive who now serves as a General Partner at XRC Labs.We get a fast-paced primer on how venture capital works and XRC's particular focus on early stage investing. Al helps us understand the process for discovering and sorting through those start-ups with the greatest disruptive potential before getting a behind the scenes view of how XRC's investment thesis has evolved over the years. We then take a look ahead at what trends will shape retail innovation in the future, with key take-aways for retail executives, budding entrepreneurs, and venture capital investments.But first we dip into the week in retail news, including how the holiday season seems to be unfolding, perhaps to a game of what Michael calls "discount chicken." We make a return trip to the Wobbly Unicorn Corner and news of some serious stumbling as well as promising signs from the likes of Stitch Fix, Rent the Runway, Chewy, Blue Apron, and Getir. We close highlighting the remarkable results from Lululemon and the staggeringly high valuation of Fanatics.Catch Steve and Michael at NRF's Big ShowAbout AlAs XRC Labs's General Partner, Al Sambar leads business strategy and development for the NYC tech accelerator. A leader in innovation, Al previously held the role of Managing Director at Kurt Salmon's North American Retail and Consumer Group. For more than 20 years, Al has been providing retailers and consumer companies with strategic planning, organizational design, consumer insights and operating performance improvement services, with deep specialization in omni-channel retailing and global brand management. About UsSteve Dennis is an advisor, keynote speaker and author on strategic growth and business innovation. You can learn more about Steve on his       website.    The expanded and revised edition of his bestselling book  Remarkable Retail: How To Win & Keep Customers in the Age of Disruption is now available at  Amazon or just about anywhere else books are sold. Steve regularly shares his insights in his role as a      Forbes senior contributor and on       Twitter and       LinkedIn. You can also check out his speaker "sizzle" reel      here.Michael LeBlanc  is the Founder & President of M.E. LeBlanc & Company Inc and a Senior Advisor to Retail Council of Canada as part of his advisory and consulting practice.   He brings 25+ years of brand/retail/marketing & eCommerce leadership experience, and has been on the front lines of retail industry change for his entire career.  Michael is the producer and host of a network of leading podcasts including Canada's top retail industry podcast,       The Voice of Retail, plus  Global E-Commerce Tech Talks  ,      The Food Professor  with Dr. Sylvain Charlebois and now in its second season, Conversations with CommerceNext!  You can learn more about Michael   here  or on     LinkedIn. Be sure and check out Michael's latest venture for fun and influencer riches - Last Request Barbecue,  his YouTube BBQ cooking channel!

TalkLP
A Quick Chat with NRF’s New VP of AP David Johnston

TalkLP

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 9, 2022 11:04


TalkLP Host Amber Bradley sits down with the new Vice President of Asset Protection & Retail Operations for the National Retail Federation (NRF), David Johnston, to discuss his new role at NRF and some sneak peeks at January's BIG Show in NYC! David also shares the most surprising part about his new role!  Check it out!  Find out more about the NRF BIG Show here. 

Smartinvesting2000
December 3, 2022 | Jobs, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), National Retail Federation (NRF) & The SEC

Smartinvesting2000

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 5, 2022 59:26


Jobs Job gains showed a nice increase of 263,000 in November which easily topped the estimate of 200,000. Leisure and hospitality remained a major leader with job gains totaling 88,000 in the month as the sector continues to battle back from Covid. This sector still remains 5.8% or 980,000 jobs below February 2020. Retail trade and transportation and warehousing were the standout losers in the report as both sectors saw a decline in payrolls. Retail trade fell by about 30,000 jobs as general merchandise stores saw employment decline by 32,000 jobs and electronics and appliance stores saw employment decline by 4,000 jobs in the month. Transportation and warehousing had a decline of 15,000 jobs in the month. I was somewhat surprised to see these two sectors decline considering it's the holiday season, but the excess inventory levels could be weighing on employment as retailers could be trying to focus on expenses including labor and transportation and warehousing. The item I believe weighed most on the markets was the increase of 5.1% in average hourly earnings. It surpassed the estimate of 4.6% and it could give the Fed more ammo to continue on its rate hiking path as it tries to bring down inflation. I do believe this should not be a major concern for the Fed because, like inflation overall, I think wage gains will begin to slow to a more normalized level next year as the job market decelerates.   Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) The PCE, which is known as the Personal Consumption Expenditures, came out at 6% for October over the last 12 months. As we had predicted months ago these inflation indexes would show signs of easing. This is why there has been some recovery in equities. The PCE is what the Federal Reserve looks at in regard to interest rates so there probably will not be any surprises going forward. We continue to believe that inflation will slow down and if you've been out of the market and in particular the right equities since summer you have missed out. There are still some opportunities to get back in for quality long-term investors but sitting on the sidelines for the next 6 to 12 months based on current data will be a mistake.   National Retail Federation (NRF) You've probably heard that this is not going to be a great Christmas for retail. But as we say many times in our posts and other commentary, it's important to understand what is being said and how it is being said. The estimate by the National Retail Federation (NRF) for holiday sales is expected to be between $942 billion to $960 billion, an increase of 6-8% over the $889 billion in 2021. This was a 13.5% increase over 2020. If we look back to 2019 when the economy was pretty strong, and everyone felt good, the NRF said holiday sales were $716 billion. Comparing the low end for 2022 of $942 billion, that's a 31.6% increase from 2019. It does appear holiday shopping has gotten off to a good start considering the record of 196.7 million shoppers from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday. This topped last year's level of 176 million shoppers and easily surpassed the NRF's estimate for 166.3 million shoppers. I don't know about you, but I think those are pretty good numbers, all things being equal.   SEC The SEC, also known as the Securities Exchange Commission, had a busy fiscal year, which ended September 30th. Their penalties were up 67% from the previous year, hitting an all-time record of $6.4 billion. I wonder where that money will go, or will it get lost in the tangled web of government administration? The money is supposed to go to a fund that either protects investors, a fund that refunds investors who lost money, or the third option, the US treasury general fund.   Harrison – “Change for charitable donations this year”