NatSec Tech

The 25th Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit wasn't just a meeting; it was the unveiling of a strategy. Hosted by Xi Jinping, the summit served as a calculated demonstration of Sino-Russian convening power. More importantly, it marked a concrete effort to operationalize an alternative, multipolar system designed explicitly to bypass Western economic and technological architectures.We just witnessed a significant inflection point in the global strategic competition. The rhetoric in Tianjin was overtly adversarial, with Xi Jinping denouncing "bullying behavior" and a "Cold War mentality." But beyond the rhetoric, the summit launched China's Global Governance Initiative (GGI), formalized commitments to building parallel financial infrastructure, and featured a strategically significant—and complex—détente between China and India.To break down the implications of this pivotal gathering, SCSP's President and CEO Ylli Bajraktari sat down with colleagues David Lin (China/East Asia/Tech), Joe Wang (Russia/Europe), and Sameer Lalwani (U.S.-India Defense) for an immediate assessment.The Propaganda Coup and Autocratic Convening PowerThe immediate takeaway from the summit was the sheer spectacle. Xi positioned himself at the center of the largest gathering in the organization's history, flanked by Vladimir Putin and, significantly, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.The timing was deliberate. As David Lin noted, it was a "big week for Xi." The SCO meeting was strategically sandwiched between the first-ever public meeting of Putin, Kim Jong Un, and Xi, and a massive World War II anniversary parade in Beijing featuring thousands of troops and military hardware."It's a huge propaganda win for Beijing," Lin observed. "It gives Xi an opportunity to promote itself as being this global convener," while simultaneously pushing a tech-focused agenda.For Vladimir Putin, the summit was essential for mitigating diplomatic isolation and promoting the SCO as an alternative to NATO."Look at the past couple of weeks of Putin... he's going to be riding high right now," said Joe Wang. While few concrete deals may have materialized immediately that changed the dynamics in Ukraine, the optics were invaluable. "Being seen with President Xi, being seen with Modi... it's like Russia's back. For him, it's a great PR coup."The Architecture of a New Techno-Economic OrderThe summit demonstrated that the SCO is evolving from a regional security forum into the primary vehicle for the PRC to consolidate a bloc resistant to U.S. influence. We are witnessing the acceleration of a bifurcated world, characterized not just by differing political ideologies, but by competing technological ecosystems and financial systems.1. The Export of Digital AuthoritarianismXi formally introduced the Global Governance Initiative (GGI). While promoting "sovereign equality," the GGI is, in practice, a strategic blueprint to legitimize digital sovereignty—the right of states to control domestic information ecosystems, data flows, and technological infrastructure without adherence to democratic norms.The SCO's endorsement provides an institutional foundation for the PRC to export its model of techno-authoritarian control. This isn't just theoretical."At the SCO in particular, China was trying to push a lot of its techno-political agenda," David Lin emphasized. This included announcements that Beijing wants to set up S&T cooperation centers, an “AI application cooperation center,” launch joint solar and wind projects, and push Beidou, its alternative to GPS, across the SCO member states. Taken together, this could directly challenge the open, interoperable architecture championed by the U.S. and its allies, moving toward a fractured, PRC-controlled digital ecosystem across Eurasia.2. Accelerating Financial De-CouplingThe most concrete outcome was the political decision to fast-track the establishment of an SCO Development Bank, seeded with significant Chinese capital. This mechanism, coupled with agreements to expand the use of local currencies for intra-SCO trade, is explicitly designed to circumvent the SWIFT system and erode the efficacy of U.S. financial sanctions.This coordinated effort directly challenges the foundation of U.S. economic statecraft by building a resilient, alternative financial architecture among major energy producers (Russia, Iran) and the world's largest manufacturer (China).The India Factor: A Strategic RecalibrationThe most significant geopolitical development, and the one that caused the most consternation in Washington, was the visible rapprochement between Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi—Modi's first visit to China in seven years."For a lot of US-India relationship watchers, Prime Minister Modi's visit to Beijing and attending this meeting came as a big surprise. It was a shock," Ylli Bajraktari noted.How should the U.S. interpret this move by a critical Quad partner?"Honestly, I think this was inevitable in some ways. India has been rebalancing," explained Sameer Lalwani. India has always professed itself to be a multi-aligned country, but recent U.S. actions also played a significant role. "The elephant in the room is, the United States has been pushing India around a little bit more... in terms of tariffs, additional tariffs because of Russian oil."Lalwani argued that India was "demonstrating they had some options." However, this does not signal a fundamental shift. "It shouldn't be lost on us that before India went to this, they stopped in Japan first." Furthermore, Modi notably absented himself from the military parade, signaling nuance in his engagement—he would participate in the SCO, but not the military spectacle.The underlying strategic realities also remain unchanged."India has a border with China that's still disputed, and China continues to coerce India... [and] China armed, trained and wired the weapons that Pakistan used to fight India" in a recent conflict. — Sameer Lalwani"I don't think that's forgotten for India," Lalwani added. The U.S.-India defense relationship remains a strong ballast, pointing to ongoing joint exercises (like Yudh Abhyas currently underway in Alaska) and India's reliance on U.S. platforms for maritime reconnaissance.The Limits of the Axis (And Why We Can't Ignore It)While the summit projected unity, the SCSP analysts urged a nuanced view of the underlying relationships."It is important to remember that a lot of this is perhaps only skin deep," David Lin cautioned, pointing to the recent history of violent border clashes between China and India, and the tight spot Beijing was put in by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.Yet, dismissing the SCO would be a strategic error. The organization has evolved significantly."I remember I was in grad school when [the SCO] first came up... we all kind of jokingly just laughed it off," Joe Wang recalled. "Fast forward 15, 20 years and see where it is now... Things don't just happen overnight."While the "bromance between Putin and Xi" is undeniable, the integration is not comparable to U.S. alliances like NATO or the U.S.-Japan relationship. "There's still a level of distrust that I think we need to be mindful about," Wang noted.The trap is assuming this alignment is already solidified, while simultaneously failing to plan for the contingency that it might be. "If you're in the US government, you don't have the luxury of not taking a lot of these statements at face value," Wang said. "We need to plan ahead."The U.S. Response: Competing in the Gray ZoneThe 2025 SCO Summit confirms that the organization is the leading edge of China's campaign to fracture the global order. How should the United States respond?1. Offer a Compelling Alternative Tech Stack. "One of the lowest hanging fruit things the U.S. should do is show that there is an alternative to this," David Lin argued. As the SCO bloc develops internal capacities and indigenous technology standards, the U.S. must demonstrate there is a viable, democratic alternative to the "China tech stack" that Beijing is actively exporting.2. Master the Game of Global Diplomacy. The U.S. must regain its strategic agility and relearn how to operate in a complex world. "After the Cold War, one of the things that America stopped doing well was play the game of global diplomacy," Joe Wang argued. The U.S. has often viewed the world in black-and-white terms, assuming its preeminence was undisputed."We've lost that strategic foresight and ability to be nimble and operate in this sort of gray zone... We need to see the world for being the gray zone that it is." — Joe WangThis means avoiding the trap of reacting to events like Modi's visit by assuming allegiances have permanently shifted—"Oh my God, Modi is in China. Therefore it must mean that he's now on their side"—while still applying pressure and offering incentives to keep partners aligned.3. Double Down on Real Alliances. The U.S. must emphasize the depth of its own partnerships, which Lin noted "runs so much deeper" than the transactional relationships within the SCO.For India specifically, Sameer Lalwani urged action over reaction. "I don't think there's any need to overreact to cheap talk." Instead, the U.S. bureaucracy needs to move faster on concrete deliverables, and Congress should confirm key diplomatic nominees. "When India says it wants to buy Javelin missiles and it's ready to do so, I don't want that to get stalled in a process when we need the political wins now."The competition is no longer just between the U.S. and China; it is between the U.S.-led democratic order and a sophisticated, resource-rich, PRC-led coalition. The Tianjin Summit is a clear signal that this coalition is moving from rhetoric to action. The U.S. must do the same. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Jeanne Meserve hosts a conversation with David Barboza, co-founder of WireScreen and The Wire China, on the complexities of China's business ecosystem. The discussion highlights Wirescreen, a data analytics platform that maps out business networks to reveal potential risks. They explore how the platform is used to uncover ties to sanctioned entities, and more. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Rob Geckle, Chairman and CEO of Airbus U.S. Space and Defense, joined Jeanne Meserve for a conversation on the future of military and defense technology. They discussed adapting commercial technology for military use, the "Golden Dome" missile defense project, and the strategic necessity of closer U.S.-European defense cooperation. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Horacio Rozanski, CEO of Booz Allen Hamilton, joined Jeanne Meserve live at The Exchange for a conversation on delivering tech solutions rapidly to the warfighter. They discussed the pivotal role of AI and space-based technology in national security, the AI competition with China, and more.Miss any of the recent episodes of NatSec Tech recorded live at the AI+ Expo? Catch up below! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Meredith Potter, Executive Director of the American Security Fund, joined Jeanne Meserve live at SCSP's AI+ Expo for a conversation on working with allies in the emerging technology space. They discussed India and Taiwan, the strategic importance of building democratic tech alliances, and more.Miss any of the recent episodes of NatSec Tech recorded live at the AI+ Expo? Catch up below! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Jaap van Etten, Co-Founder and CEO of Datenna, joined Jeanne Meserve live at SCSP's AI+ Expo for a conversation on rethinking tech policy in the U.S.-China competition. They discussed leveraging open-source intelligence to track China's technological and military-civil fusion ecosystem, and more. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

In this episode of NatSec Tech, host Jeanne Meserve is joined by Rye Barcott, co-founder and CEO of With Honor, live from the AI+ Expo. Barcott discusses With Honor's mission and bipartisan efforts, offering insights from his military background on the importance of service and an optimistic outlook for America's future. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

In this episode of NatSec Tech, host Jeanne Meserve welcomes Greg Little, Senior Counselor for Palantir and former Deputy Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Officer at the Pentagon. Recorded live at the AI+ Expo, this discussion tackles the state of American shipbuilding, highlighting the contrast between the U.S. and global leaders like China in shipbuilding capacity and efficiency. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Margaret Woolley Bussey, Executive Director of the Utah Department of Commerce, joins host Jeanne Meserve to discuss Utah's establishment of an Office of AI Policy, Utah's thriving tech sector, and regulations and protections on AI. Bussey explains the office's three core objectives—encouraging innovation, protecting the public, and building a continuous learning function within government. The discussion highlights the office's successful work on mental health chatbots and its future plans to tackle deepfakes and AI companions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Nadia Schadlow, National Security Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution and Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute, and John Maslin, CEO and co-founder of Vulcan Elements, join host Jeanne Meserve to discuss the critical role of rare earth magnets, in everything from consumer electronics to advanced military systems like F-35s and submarines. The conversation covers how China's near-monopoly on rare earth processing and magnet manufacturing poses a significant national security and economic vulnerability for the United States, along with the urgent efforts to build a resilient, independent U.S. rare earth magnet supply chain.Join us for the AI+ Expo on June 2-4, 2025, at the Washington Convention Center, where we will be recording six live episodes of NatSec Tech! This premier gathering will be the ultimate meeting space for networking and building meaningful connections that will drive progress as we bring together the brightest minds in artificial intelligence, policy, and industry. Register today. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Dr. Nandita Balakrishnan, Director of Intelligence at the Special Competitive Studies Project, and Anna Knack, Senior Research Associate at the Alan Turing Institute join Jeanne Meserve to discuss their recent report, “Applying AI to Strategic Warning.” The conversation covers applying AI for strategic warning, examining how artificial intelligence could forecast geopolitical risks, and the report's benefits, challenges, and future implications. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

SCSP's Chair, Dr. Eric Schmidt discussed the convergence of artificial intelligence and biotechnology at last week's AI+ Biotechnology Summit. The conversation delved into the rapid progress of AI, its potential impact on various industries, and the implications of underfunded science in the face of intense global competition.Also check out last week's episode with the Executive Director of the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology, Caitlin Frazer, for a conversation on biotechnology's national security impact. https://scsp222.substack.com/p/episode-74-caitlin-frazer-on-biotechnologys This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Caitlin Frazer, Executive Director of the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology, joins Jeanne Meserve to discuss the intersection of biotechnology and national security. The conversation focuses on the growing strategic competition with China, and their new report “Charting the Future of Biotechnology.”For more information on the report, visit: https://www.biotech.senate.gov/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Ryan Gury, CEO of PDW, joins Jeanne Meserve to discuss the rapid evolution of drone technology and its impact on the future of modern warfare. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Dr. Bob Mumgaard and Dr. Steven Cowley join Jeanne Meserve to discuss the latest advancements in fusion research and its potential to revolutionize the energy landscape. Make sure to check out our most recent episodes of NatSec Tech, where members of the Commission sit down with Jeanne Meserve to break down the report and explore the fascinating potential of fusion energy.For more information on the Commission on the Scaling of Fusion Energy and their preliminary report “Fusion Power: Enabling 21st Century American Dominance,” visit: https://fusion.scsp.ai/. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Make sure to listen to last week's episode on the stakes of fusion energy featuring Paul Dabbar and Mark Menezes!For more information on the Commission on the Scaling of Fusion Energy and their preliminary report “Fusion Power: Enabling 21st Century American Dominance,” visit: https://fusion.scsp.ai/. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Paul Dabbar and Mark Menezes join Jeanne Meserve on NatSec Tech to discuss the potential of fusion energy and a new report “Fusion Power: Enabling 21st Century American Dominance.”More on the Commission on the Scaling of Fusion Energy: https://fusion.scsp.ai/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Rob Joyce, founder of Joyce Cyber LLC, joins Jeanne Meserve for a critical conversation on the latest Chinese cyber threats, including Volt Typhoon, Salt Typhoon, and the TP-Link router vulnerability. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Sabra Horne, Entrepreneur in Residence at BMNT, joins Jeanne Meserve for a discussion on the challenges and opportunities of innovation within the government and how to foster a culture of innovation. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Kevin Xu, author and founder of the Interconnected newsletter, joins Jeanne Meserve on NatSec Tech to delve into the complex world of open source software and its role in the global AI race. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Estonia's Ambassador at Large for Cyber Diplomacy, Tanel Sepp, joins Jeanne Meserve for a conversation on the importance of cyber diplomacy, e-governments, and the Tallin Mechanism. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Major General Mick Ryan, author of "The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire" joins Jeanne Meserve for a conversation on the state of the war in Ukraine and lessons already drawn. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Paul Nakasone joins Jeanne Meserve for a conversation on election interference, cyber attacks, and the Vanderbilt University Institute of National Security. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Co-founder and CEO of Liquid AI, Ramin Hasani, joins Jeanne Meserve for a conversation on the liquid neural networks and their possible use cases ahead of SCSP's upcoming AI+ Robotics Summit.  This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Dmitri Alperovitch, author of "World on the Brink" joins host Jeanne Meserve for a conversation on China's geopolitical position in the Indo-Pacific. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Co-Founder of the Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, Steve Blank, joins Jeanne Meserve for a conversation on defense innovation and ensuring U.S. competitiveness in technology. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

MIT's Liz Reynolds joins Jeanne Meserve to talk about advanced manufacturing, and cautions the need for a national strategy, public-private partnerships, and strengthening the U.S. industrial base. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Vishwanath Madhugiri and Atul Joshi of SAAZ Micro, Inc. join Jeanne Meserve to discuss space imaging and the international space competition. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Ram Ben Tzion, CEO of Ultra Information Systems, joins Jeanne Meserve at this year's AI Expo for National Competitiveness for a conversation on leveraging AI for international trade and security. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Joan O'Hara joins Jeanne Meserve for a conversation recorded live at the AI Expo for National Competitiveness on XR technology and the impact it could have. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Christopher Kirchhoff joins Jeanne Meserve to discuss how the private sector is transforming the future of warfare and "Unit X: How the Pentagon and Silicon Valley Are Transforming the Future of War." This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

MIT Technology Review's Editor in Chief, Mat Honan, joins host Jeanne Meserve to talk about the growth of technology and the future of technology journalism. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Jackie Siebens and Trent Bauserman join host Jeanne Meserve for a conversation at SCSP's AI Expo for National Competitiveness on fusion energy and it's potential geopolitical impact. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

OpenAI's Felipe Million joins Jeanne Meserve for a conversation on the adoption of ChatGPT and implementing it in the public sector. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Dr. William Chappell joins host, Jeanne Meserve, for a conversation on the adoption of AI and other emerging technologies at SCSP's recent AI Expo for National Competitiveness. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Director of ARPA-H, Dr. Renee Wegrzyn, joins host Jeanne Meserve for a live conversation to discuss the agency's role in investing in new and critical technologies at SCSP's AI Expo. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

President and CEO of Booz Allen Hamilton, Horacio Rozanski joins host Jeanne Meserve for a live conversation on technology startups at SCSP's AI Expo for National Competitiveness. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

SCSP President and CEO Ylli Bajraktari joins host Jeanne Meserve for a conversation on SCSP's new report "Vision for Competitiveness: Mid-Decade Opportunities for Strategic Victory." This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Shannon Clark joins host Jeanne Meserve for a conversation on how national security crisis informs the development of new technologies. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Erica Fuchs joins host Jeanne Meserve for a conversation on critical technology strategy. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Channing Lee joins host Jeanne Meserve for a conversation on mapping the U.S.-PRC tech competition landscape of six technologies we use in our everyday lives. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Bulelani Jili joins host Jeanne Meserve for a conversation on technology in Africa. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Listen now | Clint Hinote and Mick Ryan join host Jeanne Meserve for a conversation on their recent paper, "Empowering the Edge: Uncrewed Systems and the Transformation of U.S. Warfighting Capacity."Read the full paper: Empowering the Edge: Uncrewed Systems and the Transformation of U.S. Warfighting Capacity This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Martijn Rasser joins host Jeanne Meserve for a conversation on the status of the tech rivalry with adversaries. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

SCSP's Chip Usher and Tara McLaughlin join host, Jeanne Meserve, to discuss the use of technology and AI in the Intelligence Community and how the IC could be impacted by these advances. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Members of RUSI and SCSP join host Jeanne Meserve for a conversation on human-machine teaming. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Arun Gupta joins host Jeanne Meserve for a conversation on implementing effective and innovative solutions at scale. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com

Lieutenant Colonel John Desarro and Lieutenant Colonel Pedro Ortiz join host Jeanne Meserve for a conversation about the future of AI at the Pentagon. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit scsp222.substack.com