Decouple

This week, I'm joined by Kyle Chan, author of the recent NYTimes Op-Ed titled "In the Future, China Will Be Dominant. The U.S. Will Be Irrelevant." Exploring the intense competitive pressures of Chinese “involution capitalism” and America's fixation on shareholder returns, we discuss America's waning relevance in global technology and manufacturing, and how critical choices made now could shape the economic and geopolitical landscape for decades.Chan is a postdoctoral researcher at Princeton University, adjunct researcher at the RAND Corporation, and the author of High Capacity.

This week, I'm joined by Patrick McGee, a journalist and author of Apple in China: The Capture of the World's Greatest Company. I recommended this book on LinkedIn as a MUST READ, and stand by it.Apple in China is an in-depth corporate history which examines one of the most important symbioses in economic history. It explains Apple's meteoric rise in market capitalization/revenue, as well as China's newfound dominance in precision manufacturing. McGee argues convincingly that neither outcome would have happened without this relationship.Too back up this extraordinary claim, McGee closely maps how Apple systematically sent top engineers from around the world to train up hundreds of factories in China, pressed for demanding specifications at “ridiculously high yield,” and invested sums directly into China that made the post-WW2 Marshall Plan look small. The result? China now leads in 57 of 64 critical technologies, as measured by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, dominating everything from smartphones to electric vehicles.As Trump threatens iPhone-specific tariffs and Tim Cook promises impossible reshoring timelines, Apple finds itself captured by the very system it helped create. Having accidentally armed its greatest competitor, there is no clear pathway for the U.S. to regain the lead it helped China take. Find transcripts, extended shownotes, and more on our Substack.

Last week, U.S. President Trump signed four executive orders to accelerate nuclear power deployment:Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National SecurityReinvigorating the Nuclear Industrial BaseOrdering the Reform of the Nuclear Regulatory CommissionReforming Nuclear Reactor Testing at the Department of EnergyTo help us understand the implications of these executive orders, I was joined by Thomas Hochman, director of infrastructure policy at the Foundation for American Innovation. We discuss the policy shifts needed to bridge political divides and streamline regulation as the U.S. grapples with rising energy demands driven by artificial intelligence and national security concerns. Are these executive orders enough? Is America's nuclear resurgence is feasible, or merely rhetorical, amidst a competitive global landscape dominated by China and Russia?

This week, we look beyond the physical infrastructure supporting our lives to the owners taking over that infrastructure: asset managers. Brett Christophers, an author, professor, and economic geographer at Uppsala University in Sweden, joins me to explore the troubling transformation of infrastructure ownership in today's economy. From housing to energy to water, massive asset management firms like Blackstone and Brookfield have positioned themselves more and more between citizens and essential services, extracting wealth while taking minimal risk. Christophers explains how this shift from public to private control has reshaped our relationship with everyday infrastructure, particularly as we attempt to transform our energy supplies. He argues that the profit-driven approach of these financial giants is at odds with the public good, creating a system where even as things like renewable technology get cheaper, their deployment slows due to insufficient returns for investors.

In the wake of Europe's largest blackout in decades, commodities investor Alexander Stahel helps us to understand the physics of power grids, and how Spain's celebrated renewable transition became its Achilles' heel. He introduces the “hellbrise” phenomenon—excessive, rather than too little, renewable generation—as he considers the role of grid inertia in preventing minor disruptions from cascading into failures in mere seconds. Spanish energy policy isn't the first time that green idealism has brushed over the fundamental requirements of reliable electricity, and it is unlikely to be the last. But it has certainly provided a stark example of the dangers that await such an oversight.

This week, we cover the recent blackout on the Iberian peninsula. Guillem Sanchis Ramirez, a Spanish nuclear engineer and advocate, walks us through the event that plunged over 50 million people into powerlessness and the power grid on which it happened. We cover Spain's precarious dance with renewable energy, its political resistance to nuclear power, possible paths forward for the country's energy supply, and our essential human reliance on stable electrical systems.Note: This interview was recorded on April 30, 2025, still in the midst of the story's rapid development.

This week, we take a break from nuclear power to talk about larger systems: those of Planet Earth. Professor Andy Knoll, renowned Harvard geologist and author of A Brief History of Earth, reveals how life itself has shaped Earth's chemistry, climate, and geology. From the oxygenation of Earth's atmosphere to the potential colonization of Mars, we explore the constant and delicate dance between life and the planet.Read extended shownotes on Substack.

This week, we talk High Temperature Gas Reactors, or HTGRs, with a Decouple favorite: reactor designer and nuclear historian Nick Touran (What Is Nuclear | X). From the first conceptual sketch of an HTGR in wartime labs to today's revival by players like X-energy and China's fast-moving reactor fleet, we dissect what makes HTGRs unique—both in engineering promise and the difficulties that have long haunted their success. With helium cooling, TRISO fuel, and ambitions beyond electricity into process heat and industrial decarbonization, HTGRs may be poised for a comeback. But will history repeat itself, or finally break the cycle?Read longer show notes and support Decouple on Substack.

This week, we talk tools. With precision machinist Noah Rettberg, we explore a facet of modernity as important as energy, for it is the technology that energy powers and the technology that makes that technology: machine tools. Noah draws from his professional knowledge and passion for history to takes from Roman metallurgy through the guild-protected craftsmanship of medieval Europe to the steam-powered revolution in machining to the cutting-edge of metalworking tools. Riveting!

This week, we talk radiation—the elephant in the room during many conversations about nuclear power. Nick Touran, a reactor designer and nuclear historian, helps us along. While nuclear advocates have made remarkable strides in dispelling public fears about radiation, Touran warns against the pendulum swinging too far toward complacency. We explore why maintaining a healthy respect for radiation remains crucial even as we champion nuclear power's expansion.Read the extended shownotes on Substack.

Molten Salt Reactors are often portrayed as nuclear's great missed opportunity, promising unparalleled safety, efficiency, and fuel sustainability. But are these promises reality or hype? Nick Touran, reactor designer and nuclear historian, joins me to tell the complex story behind molten salt reactors—from their ambitious beginnings during Cold War nuclear airplane experiments to the realities of managing radioactive liquid fuels. This conversation clears the mist around one of nuclear's most intriguing yet misunderstood technologies.Read more in-depth show notes on Substack.

This week, we talk Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) with James Krellenstein, the CEO of Alva Energy. We dive into the engineering, history, and physics of these reactors, how they differ from other designs, and why the United States may have erred in not choosing the Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR) instead of the Westinghouse AP-1000 for the Vogtle nuclear power plant.For this episode, we've included a glossary below to help with unfamiliar terms:ABWR: Advanced Boiling Water ReactorATWS: Anticipated Transient Without ScramBORAX experiments: Historical experiments testing reactor limits through deliberate failuresBWR: Boiling Water ReactorCOPS: Containment Overpressure Protection SystemCRDM: Control Rod Drive MechanismESBWR: Economic Simplified Boiling Water ReactorFLEX: Diverse and Flexible Coping Strategies (post-Fukushima enhancements)FOAK: First of a kindIGSCC: Intergranular Stress Corrosion CrackingNOAK: N-nth of a kindNRC: Nuclear Regulatory CommissionNSSS: Nuclear Steam Supply System (N Triple-S)PRA: Probabilistic Risk AssessmentPWR: Pressurized Water ReactorRCIC: Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System RPV: Reactor Pressure VesselSLC: Standby Liquid Control SystemRead more on Substack!

This week, we talk industrial policy. Economist and author Steve Keen joins me to shine light on the present moment by exploring the historical use of tariffs and industrial policy in the development of industrial powers from Britain to China. In his usual style, Keen aims to dismantle the myths of free-market economics, explaining how virtually every successful industrial nation began with protectionist policies. With the US now engaged in a trade war with Canada and other nations under Trump's renewed tariffs, we examine whether such measures can effectively rebuild American industry without the comprehensive industrial policies that powered China's meteoric rise. Hint: Keen believes this simplistic tariff solutions may create more chaos than revival for America's industrial base.

Today, we talk uranium nuclear fuel. MIT Professor Koroush Shirvan, joins me to dive into the hidden complexities of nuclear fuels. From early fuel experiments that saw uranium rods turn into spaghetti-like structures under neutron bombardment to the intricate economics shaping the future of fuels like TRISO, Shirvan offers insights into the realities behind nuclear power's remarkable yet challenging fuel technologies.Listen to discover how history shaped today's dominant fuel choices, why accident-tolerant innovations are critical, and about the economic realities that could either launch or limit the nuclear renaissance.

This week, we return to China. David Fishman, senior manager at The Lantau Group, joins me again to dissect the unprecedented scale of China's electrification, which Fishman says is driven by a mix of state planning, brutal market competition, and strategic energy security concerns. Our discussion ranges from the world's largest hydro projects to a coal industry that refuses to die; the forces driving China's power sector; the balance between state planning and market competition; and how this all fits into the larger economic shift towards innovation-driven, rather than imitiation-driven, growth.Read extended shownotes on Substack.Follow David Fishman on X.

This week,Decouple Germany correspondent Noah Rettberg, a physics laboratory technician and precision machinist, talks about the potential to restart German nuclear reactors. Anew analysis from Radiant Energy Group examines Germany's potential to redeploy nuclear power using its existing reactor fleet. Through assessment of recently shuttered reactors, their report suggests Germany could restore up to 13 gigawatts of nuclear power to the European grid within eight years – potentially at much lower costs and faster speeds than new construction. As Germany's electricity imports have risen sharply – from 9 TWh in 2023 to 25 TWh by late 2024 – and its economy faces headwinds, the country's nuclear infrastructure might offer a path forward if the political will appears.

This week, we talk carbon capture. Canadian engineer and entrepreneur Ian MacGregor joins me to explore this misunderstood technology through the lens of someone who's actually built it. MacGregor, the architect behind the Alberta Carbon Trunk Line—the largest carbon capture and storage project in the world—cuts through the hype to discuss the thermodynamic and economic realities that govern this technology. Informed by decades of hands-on experience, he challenges popular narratives while offering a pragmatic vision for how carbon capture might realistically develop. Read more on Substack.

This week, we go to China. I spoke with David Fishman, senior manager at The Lantau Group, on the motivations and strategy behind China's world-leading electrification efforts. What seems like a climate-action utopia to Western analysts appears to be a pragmatic response to pollution and energy security concerns. China's vulnerability to maritime oil blockades has spurred aggressive electrification across transport, industry, and urban infrastructure; and its state capitalist model has enabled a pace and scale of investment in nuclear power, electrified transport, and renewable energy that makes Western efforts to achieve an energy transformation look piecemeal. Watch on YouTube.

Mark Nelson, managing director of Radiant Energy Group, joins us for a Masterclass on the slippery subject of oil. We zoom from ancient plankton to modern empires to see how a mysterious black liquid birthed from prehistoric seas now powers our civilization, touching on the complex chemistry, geology and history of oil.

Two thought leaders in the nuclear energy conversation, James Krellenstein and Ted Nordhaus, join Decouple for a “debate” over the question of reactor size: should advanced, small nuclear technologies lead the way for nuclear energy, or should conventional large reactors? What could have been a heated debate over nuclear energy's future ended up a nuanced discussion about the industry's challenges—and how to overcome them. James Krellenstein is the co-founder and CEO of Alva Energy. Ted Nordhaus is the co-founder and executive director of The Breakthrough Institute.

Jeff Waksman, program manager for Project Pele, joins Dr. Chris Keefer to discuss the impetus for the military microreactor project, the logistics and energy challenges at the heart of modern warfare, and the technical considerations of microreactor development. Few voices are more qualified to speak on the state-of-the-art in tiny nuclear reactors. Tune in. Support Decouple: https://www.decouple.media

Steve Keen, economist and author, joins me to explain how modern economics has catastrophically misunderstood the role of energy in our world and underestimated the risks of climate change through oversimple models. In this in-person conversation, we discuss the evolution of economic thinking since feudalism, the shortcomings of prevailing economic models, modern monetary theory, the role of state capitalism in funding large infrastructure projects, and much else. Tune in! -- Support Decouple: https://www.decouple.media/

Phil Chaffee, Editor of Nuclear Intelligence Weekly and Bureau Chief of Energy Intelligence's New York offices, joins me to discuss the implications of a second Trump administration on U.S. nuclear energy. Will the tantalizing nuclear power purchase agreements signed by hyperscalers evaporate as carbon pricing becomes less likely? Will free-market ideology manage to sustain the government support needed to deploy nuclear power at scale? We speculate about these questions and more. Note: This interview was recorded on 20 November 2024.

Jean-Baptiste Fressoz, a French historian of science & technology, shares how European societies grappled with climate change centuries before modern science proved the scale and breadth of its impact, revealing a forgotten saga where colonial ambitions and volcanic winters shaped our earliest understanding of Earth's shifting climate. Grounding our discussion is his Fressoz's 2024 book Chaos in the Heavens: The Forgotten History of Climate Change, co-authored with Fabien Locher.

Aidan Morrison, director of energy research at Australia's Centre for Independent Studies, takes us to the depths of Australia's security predicament as a country near Maritime Southeast Asia dependent on liquid hydrocarbon imports. We discuss military strategy, the use of nuclear and diesel-electric submarines, and the continent's precarious dependence on maritime trade and military alliances.

Nick Touran, a nuclear engineer and manager at TerraPower, unearths the sobering realities of micro nuclear reactors. Through a detailed discussion of physics, engineering, economics, and history, Touran explains why microreactors face fundamental challenges that factory production alone cannot solve.

Nick Touran tells the story of Admiral Hyman Rickover, the “Father of the Nuclear Navy” and author of the legendary "Paper Reactor" memo. We discover how Rickover's hard-driving management and obsession with practical engineering shaped not just the US nuclear navy, but the entire landscape of modern nuclear power. Touran is manager of digital engineering at TerraPower and creator of Whatisnuclear.com. Decouple Substack: https://www.decouple.media/

James Krellenstein, co-founder of Alva Energy, explains precisely what happened at the Three Mile Island accident, in which an ordinary reactor trip cascaded into a partial meltdown due primarily to errors in the human-machine interface. Krellenstein discusses how the 1979 incident, despite its severity, actually showed the effectiveness of the “defense in depth” principle and led to significant improvements in plant operations and nuclear safety culture. Watch the episode on YouTube to follow along with visuals.

Koroush Shirvan, an MIT professor and consultant on recent major reports on nuclear economics, sheds light on the hidden costs of small modular reactors. Lower power densities, ballooning containment and reactor vessel sizes, poor economies of scale, and missed opportunities for cost reductions mean that SMRs may not be the panacea for nuclear that many believe them to be.

Jigar Shah, Director of the Loan Programs Office (LPO) at the U.S. Department of Energy, joins me to discuss his office's latest Pathways to Commercial Liftoff report on nuclear energy. We touch on the state of the American nuclear industry, its surge of policy and private sector support, and outstanding obstacles to tripling nuclear capacity in the United States. In addition to emphasizing the need for standardization in reactor designs and a unified communications strategy from the nuclear industry, Jigar sets the record straight on what the LPO can and, importantly, cannot do for the sector. While the LPO offers extensive support in the form of loans and high-quality information, it is up to industry to lead the charge. In his words, “we can't want this more than industry.” Read more on Substack: https://www.decouple.media/

Fred Stafford, a STEM professional and anonymous energy commentator, discusses the Tennessee Valley Authority's potential to lead a nuclear revival in the United States — that is, if it can overcome the tensions between public and private interests and a looming debt ceiling that threatens to dim its nuclear ambitions. Read more on Substack: www.decouple.media

Jean-Baptiste Fressoz, a French historian of science and technology, challenges our understanding of energy history. He unravels the myth of energy transitions, revealing symbiotic relationships between coal, wood, and oil that have shaped our world in unexpected ways.

Mark P. Mills returns to Decouple to challenge our understanding of energy scarcity and efficiency. In this episode, he unravels the paradox of how pursuing energy efficiency often leads to increased consumption, and explains why he believes our energy resources are functionally limitless. -- Mark P. Mills on X: https://x.com/MarkPMills Decouple: https://www.decouple.media

Microsoft and nuclear plant owner Constellation have entered into to an unprecedented deal to restart the closed Three Mile Island by 2028 to power its data centres. Microsoft will purchase as much power as possible from its 880 MW reactor over 20 years for prices rumored to be above $100 per MWh. Most famous for its 1979 meltdown, TMI closed in 2019 because of cheap fossil fuels and tech companies refusing at the time to consider buying its electricity to meet clean energy goals.

Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power, is embroiled in a bitter legal dispute with Westinghouse over IP rights and export control obligations. Will this conflict stymie Western nuclear ambitions? Does this legal battle risk ceding the longterm geopolitical alliances intrinsic to nuclear exports in non-aligned countries to Russia and China? What are the motivations and likely outcomes? Phil Chaffee of Nuclear Intelligence Weekly joins me to provide context and inferences.

Tim Freeman, VP of Field Services and Manufacturing at CANDU Energy Inc joins me to discuss the 3rd most widely deployed reactor technology in the world, Canada's Heavy Pressurized Water Reactor the CANDU. Note this conversation was recorded in March of 2024.

Ashley Nunes, a senior research associate at Harvard Law School, joins me to disentangle the hope from the hype in the EV debate.

Robbie Stewart and Enrique Velez-Lopez, the founders of nuclear start up Boston Atomics, join me to discuss the true costs of advanced nuclear design engineering.

Jimmy Fortuna of Enverus takes me on a world tour of oil production by region illuminating the unique geopolitical, technological and political challenges to accessing our most important form of energy.

Aidan Morrison, Director of Energy Research at the Centre for Independent Studies joins me for an update on the Australian nuclear debate which is shaping up to be a core issue in the approaching federal election.

Mark Mills is the executive director of the National Centre for Energy Analytics and author of “The Cloud Revolution” How the Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and A Roaring 2020s. Join us as we explore how to power an AI enhanced Cloud network and its implications on the grid and climate politics.

Professor Alex Wellerstein returns for a part two answering questions about the bomb, near misses, command and control and more.

Is overzealous regulation the root cause of the contemporary crisis in deployment of nuclear reactors in the USA? James Krellenstein argues that Nuclear Regulatory Commission critics are trapped in the 1980's and that the spectre haunting today's deployments are not primarily regulatory. Due to simplified systems and lower material costs modern NRC approved passive reactors should be cheaper than complex Gen 2 reactors. In addition there are 17 licensed sites with combined construction and operating licenses in the USA ready to go. All that and more on this week's episode.

Science journalist Peter Brannen joins me to discuss the kill mechanisms of Earth's five mass extinctions. Humanity has developed the god like power's to mimic all of them. From altering the carbon cycle to eutrophication of oceans and to a far lesser degree our asteroid like thermonuclear weapon arsenal.

How should we think about modularity in the nuclear space? Jesse Hubesch joins me to disentangle the much hyped concept of modularity from his perspective as a chemical process engineer.

Historian of science Professor Alex Wellerstein joins me to talk about the sword haunting the ploughshare of the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. 00:00:00 - The Manhattan Project: A Secret Industry | The Birth of the Atomic Bomb 00:02:16 - Why Study Nuclear Weapons? A Historian's Perspective | Alex Wellerstein's Path to Nuclear History 00:04:32 - Nuclear Fear Across Generations | From the Berlin Wall to 9/11 00:08:21 - First Discoveries of Fission: Bomb or Reactor? | Early Thoughts on Nuclear Technology 00:13:19 - The Manhattan Project: A Crash Course in Nuclear Industry | Building an Atomic Bomb in Two Years 00:22:31 - The Infrastructure of the Manhattan Project: From Dinner Table to Industrial Scale | Hanford, Oak Ridge, and Los Alamos 00:32:36 - Was the Manhattan Project Bigger than the Space Race? | Speed, Secrecy, and the Legacy of a Crash Program 00:35:50 - Why Were the Atomic Bombs Dropped? | Exploring the Motives and Justifications 00:43:04 - How Many Bombs Did the US Have in 1945? | Production Rates and the Threat of More Bombs 00:50:52 - US Atomic Hegemony and the Prevention of World War III | Early Cold War Nuclear Diplomacy 00:59:35 - Fear of the Bomb: Radiation and the Psychological Impact | From Hiroshima to Godzilla 01:06:04 - Understanding Nuclear Fallout: Airbursts, Groundbursts, and the Threat of Radiation | Local and Global Fallout Explained

Marcel Boiteux, a shy economist who escaped occupied France to fight the Nazis before working out the theory of electricity pricing for newly-nationalized Electricite de France, rose to become the greatest builder of nuclear power the world has ever seen. Mark Nelson, founder of Radiant Energy Group, explains what forces shaped his mind, his role in the fateful "War of the Nuclear Systems," how he prepared for the oil crisis that triggered the "all nuclear" Messmer plan, and how he survived an ecoterrorist attack to construct the famous nuclear fleet that now lies underused and underappreciated. Can France rediscover its greatest engineering hero, who died last year at the age of 101, in time to rescue itself and indeed all of Europe from its energy death spiral?

While the west struggles to deliver nuclear plants and dreams about novel reactor technologies China is deploying it all: large LWR, SMR and MSR/HTGR. World Nuclear Association China lead Francois Morin joins me to catch us up on recent developments and trends.

In the early days of nuclear power uranium was thought to be a critically rare mineral. Nuclear engineers sought to solve this problem with a special type of reactor that produced more fissile material than they consume. Nick Touran joins me to discuss and explore the long term sustainability of nuclear power.

The Grand Finale is here. We wrestle with the question of whether nuclear can find its groove and the positive learning rates that have eluded it so frequently. Vogtle unit 4 came in 40% cheaper than unit 3. Can those gains continue downwards? Is Vogtle 5 more likely to follow this cost reduction curve compared to a new AP1000 elsewhere?

Emmet Penney joins me to shoot the breeze and catch up on the whirlwind developments of the last few months.